Uncertainties in effective dose estimates of adult CT head scans: The effect of head size

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Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E. [Department of Medical Physics, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, South Australia 5000 (Australia) and School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia); Division of Medical Imaging, Women' s and Children' s Hospital, North Adelaide, South Australia 5006 (Australia) and School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia); School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia)

2009-09-15

Purpose: This study is an extension of a previous study where the uncertainties in effective dose estimates from adult CT head scans were calculated using four CT effective dose estimation methods, three of which were computer programs (CT-EXPO, CTDOSIMETRY, and IMPACTDOSE) and one that involved the dose length product (DLP). However, that study did not include the uncertainty contribution due to variations in head sizes. Methods: The uncertainties due to head size variations were estimated by first using the computer program data to calculate doses to small and large heads. These doses were then compared with doses calculated for the phantom heads used by the computer programs. An uncertainty was then assigned based on the difference between the small and large head doses and the doses of the phantom heads. Results: The uncertainties due to head size variations alone were found to be between 4% and 26% depending on the method used and the patient gender. When these uncertainties were included with the results of the previous study, the overall uncertainties in effective dose estimates (stated at the 95% confidence interval) were 20%-31% (CT-EXPO), 15%-30% (CTDOSIMETRY), 20%-36% (IMPACTDOSE), and 31%-40% (DLP). Conclusions: For the computer programs, the lower overall uncertainties were still achieved when measured values of CT dose index were used rather than tabulated values. For DLP dose estimates, head size variations made the largest (for males) and second largest (for females) contributions to effective dose uncertainty. An improvement in the uncertainty of the DLP method dose estimates will be achieved if head size variation can be taken into account.

Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM 2.5 case study

Science.gov (United States)

Özkaynak, Halûk; Frey, H. Christopher; Burke, Janet; Pinder, Robert W.

Quantitative assessment of human exposures and health effects due to air pollution involve detailed characterization of impacts of air quality on exposure and dose. A key challenge is to integrate these three components on a consistent spatial and temporal basis taking into account linkages and feedbacks. The current state-of-practice for such assessments is to exercise emission, meteorology, air quality, exposure, and dose models separately, and to link them together by using the output of one model as input to the subsequent downstream model. Quantification of variability and uncertainty has been an important topic in the exposure assessment community for a number of years. Variability refers to differences in the value of a quantity (e.g., exposure) over time, space, or among individuals. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity. An emerging challenge is how to quantify variability and uncertainty in integrated assessments over the source-to-dose continuum by considering contributions from individual as well as linked components. For a case study of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) in North Carolina during July 2002, we characterize variability and uncertainty associated with each of the individual concentration, exposure and dose models that are linked, and use a conceptual framework to quantify and evaluate the implications of coupled model uncertainties. We find that the resulting overall uncertainties due to combined effects of both variability and uncertainty are smaller (usually by a factor of 3-4) than the crudely multiplied model-specific overall uncertainty ratios. Future research will need to examine the impact of potential dependencies among the model components by conducting a truly coupled modeling analysis.

The effects of radiotherapy treatment uncertainties on the delivered dose distribution and tumour control probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, J.T.; Zavgorodni, S.F.; Royal Adelaide Hospital, SA

2001-01-01

Uncertainty in the precise quantity of radiation dose delivered to tumours in external beam radiotherapy is present due to many factors, and can result in either spatially uniform (Gaussian) or spatially non-uniform dose errors. These dose errors are incorporated into the calculation of tumour control probability (TCP) and produce a distribution of possible TCP values over a population. We also study the effect of inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity on the population distribution of patient TCPs. This study aims to investigate the relative importance of these three uncertainties (spatially uniform dose uncertainty, spatially non-uniform dose uncertainty, and inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity) on the delivered dose and TCP distribution following a typical course of fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The dose distributions used for patient treatments are modelled in one dimension. Geometric positioning uncertainties during and before treatment are considered as shifts of a pre-calculated dose distribution. Following the simulation of a population of patients, distributions of dose across the patient population are used to calculate mean treatment dose, standard deviation in mean treatment dose, mean TCP, standard deviation in TCP, and TCP mode. These parameters are calculated with each of the three uncertainties included separately. The calculations show that the dose errors in the tumour volume are dominated by the spatially uniform component of dose uncertainty. This could be related to machine specific parameters, such as linear accelerator calibration. TCP calculation is affected dramatically by inter-patient variation in the cell sensitivity and to a lesser extent by the spatially uniform dose errors. The positioning errors with the 1.5 cm margins used cause dose uncertainty outside the tumour volume and have a small effect on mean treatment dose (in the tumour volume) and tumour control. Copyright (2001) Australasian College of

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

Dose mapping sensitivity to deformable registration uncertainties in fractionated radiotherapy – applied to prostate proton treatments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tilly, David; Tilly, Nina; Ahnesjö, Anders

2013-01-01

Calculation of accumulated dose in fractionated radiotherapy based on spatial mapping of the dose points generally requires deformable image registration (DIR). The accuracy of the accumulated dose thus depends heavily on the DIR quality. This motivates investigations of how the registration uncertainty influences dose planning objectives and treatment outcome predictions. A framework was developed where the dose mapping can be associated with a variable known uncertainty to simulate the DIR uncertainties in a clinical workflow. The framework enabled us to study the dependence of dose planning metrics, and the predicted treatment outcome, on the DIR uncertainty. The additional planning margin needed to compensate for the dose mapping uncertainties can also be determined. We applied the simulation framework to a hypofractionated proton treatment of the prostate using two different scanning beam spot sizes to also study the dose mapping sensitivity to penumbra widths. The planning parameter most sensitive to the DIR uncertainty was found to be the target D 95 . We found that the registration mean absolute error needs to be ≤0.20 cm to obtain an uncertainty better than 3% of the calculated D 95 for intermediate sized penumbras. Use of larger margins in constructing PTV from CTV relaxed the registration uncertainty requirements to the cost of increased dose burdens to the surrounding organs at risk. The DIR uncertainty requirements should be considered in an adaptive radiotherapy workflow since this uncertainty can have significant impact on the accumulated dose. The simulation framework enabled quantification of the accuracy requirement for DIR algorithms to provide satisfactory clinical accuracy in the accumulated dose

Quantifying remarks to the question of uncertainties of the 'general dose assessment fundamentals'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenk, H.D.; Vogt, K.J.

1982-12-01

Dose prediction models are always subject to uncertainties due to a number of factors including deficiencies in the model structure and uncertainties of the model input parameter values. In lieu of validation experiments the evaluation of these uncertainties is restricted to scientific judgement. Several attempts have been made in the literature to evaluate the uncertainties of the current dose assessment models resulting from uncertainties of the model input parameter values using stochastic approaches. Less attention, however, has been paid to potential sources of systematic over- and underestimations of the predicted doses due to deficiencies in the model structure. The present study addresses this aspect with regard to dose assessment models currently used for regulatory purposes. The influence of a number of basic simplifications and conservative assumptions has been investigated. Our systematic approach is exemplified by a comparison of doses evaluated on the basis of the regulatory guide model and a more realistic model respectively. This is done for 3 critical exposure pathways. As a result of this comparison it can be concluded that the currently used regularoty-type models include significant safety factors resulting in a systematic overprediction of dose to man up to two orders of magnitude. For this reason there are some indications that these models usually more than compensate the bulk of the stochastic uncertainties caused by the variability of the input parameter values. (orig.) [de

A novel method for the evaluation of uncertainty in dose-volume histogram computation.

Science.gov (United States)

Henríquez, Francisco Cutanda; Castrillón, Silvia Vargas

2008-03-15

Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) are a useful tool in state-of-the-art radiotherapy treatment planning, and it is essential to recognize their limitations. Even after a specific dose-calculation model is optimized, dose distributions computed by using treatment-planning systems are affected by several sources of uncertainty, such as algorithm limitations, measurement uncertainty in the data used to model the beam, and residual differences between measured and computed dose. This report presents a novel method to take them into account. To take into account the effect of associated uncertainties, a probabilistic approach using a new kind of histogram, a dose-expected volume histogram, is introduced. The expected value of the volume in the region of interest receiving an absorbed dose equal to or greater than a certain value is found by using the probability distribution of the dose at each point. A rectangular probability distribution is assumed for this point dose, and a formulation that accounts for uncertainties associated with point dose is presented for practical computations. This method is applied to a set of DVHs for different regions of interest, including 6 brain patients, 8 lung patients, 8 pelvis patients, and 6 prostate patients planned for intensity-modulated radiation therapy. Results show a greater effect on planning target volume coverage than in organs at risk. In cases of steep DVH gradients, such as planning target volumes, this new method shows the largest differences with the corresponding DVH; thus, the effect of the uncertainty is larger.

Assessment of uncertainties of external dose estimation after the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruk, Julianna

2008-01-01

Full text: In the remote period of time after the Chernobyl accident the estimation of an external exposure with using of direct dose rate measurements or individual monitoring of inhabitants is rationally only for settlements where the preliminary estimation makes the range equal or greater 1.0 mSv per year. For inhabitancies of settlements where the preliminary estimation makes the range less 1.0 mSv per year the external dose is correctly to estimate by calculation. For the last cases the uncertainty should be assessed. The most accessible initial parameter for calculation of a dose of an external exposure is the average ground deposition of Cs-137 for the settlements. The character of density distribution of Cs-137 deposition in an area of one settlement is well enough studied. The best agreement of distribution of this parameter is reached with log-normal distribution practically for all settlements of the investigated territories with factor of a variation 0.3-0.6 and the standard geometrical deviation lying within the limits of 1.4-1.7. The dose factors which correspond to the structure of an available housing of settlement (type of apartment houses: wooden, stone, multi-storey) and age structure of the population are bring the main contribution into uncertainty of the external dose estimation. The situations with a different level of known information have been considered for the estimation of influence of those parameters on the general uncertainty. Thus the estimation of the uncertainty of the external dose was done for two variant: optimistic and pessimistic. In the optimistic case the estimation of external doses will be spent for specific settlement with known structure of housing and according to a known share of the living population in houses of the certain type. In that case, variability value dose factor will be limited to the chosen type of a residential building (for example - the one-storied wooden house), and a share of the living population

Assessment of dose measurement uncertainty using RisoScan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helt-Hansen, Jakob; Miller, Arne

2006-01-01

The dose measurement uncertainty of the dosimeter system RisoScan, office scanner and Riso B3 dosimeters has been assessed by comparison with spectrophotometer measurements of the same dosimeters. The reproducibility and the combined uncertainty were found to be approximately 2% and 4%, respectively, at one standard deviation. The subroutine in RisoScan for electron energy measurement is shown to give results that are equivalent to the measurements with a scanning spectrophotometer

Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oughton, D.H.; Agueero, A.; Avila, R.; Brown, J.E.; Copplestone, D.; Gilek, M.

2008-01-01

Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties

On uncertainties in definition of dose equivalent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oda, Keiji

1995-01-01

The author has entertained always the doubt that in a neutron field, if the measured value of the absorbed dose with a tissue equivalent ionization chamber is 1.02±0.01 mGy, may the dose equivalent be taken as 10.2±0.1 mSv. Should it be 10.2 or 11, but the author considers it is 10 or 20. Even if effort is exerted for the precision measurement of absorbed dose, if the coefficient being multiplied to it is not precise, it is meaningless. [Absorbed dose] x [Radiation quality fctor] = [Dose equivalent] seems peculiar. How accurately can dose equivalent be evaluated ? The descriptions related to uncertainties in the publications of ICRU and ICRP are introduced, which are related to radiation quality factor, the accuracy of measuring dose equivalent and so on. Dose equivalent shows the criterion for the degree of risk, or it is considered only as a controlling quantity. The description in the ICRU report 1973 related to dose equivalent and its unit is cited. It was concluded that dose equivalent can be considered only as the absorbed dose being multiplied by a dimensionless factor. The author presented the questions. (K.I.)

Uncertainty and power at low levels of incurred radiation dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, M; Jackson, D

2005-01-01

It is common practice when calculating dose to exposed populations to average the variables that go into the dose calculation (e.g. environmental concentrations, air kerma, consumption rates, occupancy rates). This approach is simple and can be useful where data are obtained over different periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly), where samples may be bulked for some analyses but not others and where gaps in the data are present. However, such an approach does not yield information on the degree of uncertainty around the average dose calculated. An alternative approach is to estimate the dose to each individual and to obtain an average from this data set, which can then also be used to derive a measure of uncertainty around the central dose estimate. In this study, we demonstrate the variability in dose estimates using a hypothetical data set and consider the implications for sample size to achieve fixed confidence or resolving power. We recommend calculating the dose to every individual sampled, in order both to obtain the average dose and to estimate its variability. We argue that it is best practice to obtain information as complete as possible from the available sample of individuals

Information-integration category learning and the human uncertainty response.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Erick J; Boomer, Joseph; Smith, J David; Ashby, F Gregory

2011-04-01

The human response to uncertainty has been well studied in tasks requiring attention and declarative memory systems. However, uncertainty monitoring and control have not been studied in multi-dimensional, information-integration categorization tasks that rely on non-declarative procedural memory. Three experiments are described that investigated the human uncertainty response in such tasks. Experiment 1 showed that following standard categorization training, uncertainty responding was similar in information-integration tasks and rule-based tasks requiring declarative memory. In Experiment 2, however, uncertainty responding in untrained information-integration tasks impaired the ability of many participants to master those tasks. Finally, Experiment 3 showed that the deficit observed in Experiment 2 was not because of the uncertainty response option per se, but rather because the uncertainty response provided participants a mechanism via which to eliminate stimuli that were inconsistent with a simple declarative response strategy. These results are considered in the light of recent models of category learning and metacognition.

Changes in Rectal Dose Due to Alterations in Beam Angles for Setup Uncertainty and Range Uncertainty in Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer.

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Yoshiki Kubota

Full Text Available Carbon-ion radiotherapy of prostate cancer is challenging in patients with metal implants in one or both hips. Problems can be circumvented by using fields at oblique angles. To evaluate the influence of setup and range uncertainties accompanying oblique field angles, we calculated rectal dose changes with oblique orthogonal field angles, using a device with fixed fields at 0° and 90° and a rotating patient couch.Dose distributions were calculated at the standard angles of 0° and 90°, and then at 30° and 60°. Setup uncertainty was simulated with changes from -2 mm to +2 mm for fields in the anterior-posterior, left-right, and cranial-caudal directions, and dose changes from range uncertainty were calculated with a 1 mm water-equivalent path length added to the target isocenter in each angle. The dose distributions regarding the passive irradiation method were calculated using the K2 dose algorithm.The rectal volumes with 0°, 30°, 60°, and 90° field angles at 95% of the prescription dose were 3.4±0.9 cm3, 2.8±1.1 cm3, 2.2±0.8 cm3, and 3.8±1.1 cm3, respectively. As compared with 90° fields, 30° and 60° fields had significant advantages regarding setup uncertainty and significant disadvantages regarding range uncertainty, but were not significantly different from the 90° field setup and range uncertainties.The setup and range uncertainties calculated at 30° and 60° field angles were not associated with a significant change in rectal dose relative to those at 90°.

ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE RADIATION DOSES FOR THE TECHA RIVER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Napier, Bruce A.; Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Shagina, N. B.

2009-10-23

In order to provide more accurate and precise estimates of individual dose (and thus more precise estimates of radiation risk) for the members of the ETRC, a new dosimetric calculation system, the Techa River Dosimetry System-2009 (TRDS-2009) has been prepared. The deterministic version of the improved dosimetry system TRDS-2009D was basically completed in April 2009. Recent developments in evaluation of dose-response models in light of uncertain dose have highlighted the importance of different types of uncertainties in the development of individual dose estimates. These include uncertain parameters that may be either shared or unshared within the dosimetric cohort, and also the nature of the type of uncertainty as aleatory or epistemic and either classical or Berkson. This report identifies the nature of the various input parameters and calculational methods incorporated in the Techa River Dosimetry System (based on the TRDS-2009D implementation), with the intention of preparing a stochastic version to estimate the uncertainties in the dose estimates. This report reviews the equations, databases, and input parameters, and then identifies the author’s interpretations of their general nature. It presents the approach selected so that the stochastic, Monte-Carlo, implementation of the dosimetry System - TRDS-2009MC - will provide useful information regarding the uncertainties of the doses.

Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davison, Matt; Kim, Daero; Keller, Harald

2011-01-01

In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

Uncertainty analysis in the determination of absorbed dose in water by Fricke chemical dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Fabia; Aguirre, Eder Aguirre

2016-01-01

This work studies the calculations of uncertainties and the level of confidence that involves the process for obtaining the dose absorbed in water using the method of Fricke dosimetry, developed at Laboratorio de Ciencias Radiologicas (LCR). Measurements of absorbance of samples Fricke, irradiated and non-irradiated is going to use in order to calculate the respective sensitivity coefficients, along with the expressions of the calculation of Fricke dose and the absorbed dose in water. Those expressions are used for calculating the others sensitivity coefficients from the input variable. It is going to use the combined uncertainty and the expanded uncertainty, with a level of confidence of 95.45%, in order to report the uncertainties of the measurement. (author)

Integral dose conservation in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reese, Adam S.; Das, Shiva K.; Curle, Charles; Marks, Lawrence B.

2009-01-01

Treatment planners frequently modify beam arrangements and use IMRT to improve target dose coverage while satisfying dose constraints on normal tissues. The authors herein analyze the limitations of these strategies and quantitatively assess the extent to which dose can be redistributed within the patient volume. Specifically, the authors hypothesize that (1) the normalized integral dose is constant across concentric shells of normal tissue surrounding the target (normalized to the average integral shell dose), (2) the normalized integral shell dose is constant across plans with different numbers and orientations of beams, and (3) the normalized integral shell dose is constant across plans when reducing the dose to a critical structure. Using the images of seven patients previously irradiated for cancer of brain or prostate cancer and one idealized scenario, competing three-dimensional conformal and IMRT plans were generated using different beam configurations. Within a given plan and for competing plans with a constant mean target dose, the normalized integral doses within concentric ''shells'' of surrounding normal tissue were quantitatively compared. Within each patient, the normalized integral dose to shells of normal tissue surrounding the target was relatively constant (1). Similarly, for each clinical scenario, the normalized integral dose for a given shell was also relatively constant regardless of the number and orientation of beams (2) or degree of sparing of a critical structure (3). 3D and IMRT planning tools can redistribute, rather than eliminate dose to the surrounding normal tissues (intuitively known by planners). More specifically, dose cannot be moved between shells surrounding the target but only within a shell. This implies that there are limitations in the extent to which a critical structure can be spared based on the location and geometry of the critical structure relative to the target.

Effects of Positioning Uncertainty and Breathing on Dose Delivery and Radiation Pneumonitis Prediction in Breast Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mavroidis, Panayiotis; Axelsson, Sofie; Hyoedynmaa, Simo; Rajala, Juha; Pitkaenen, Maunu A.; Lind, Bengt K.; Brahme, Anders

2002-01-01

The quality of the radiation therapy delivered in the treatment of breast cancer is susceptible to setup errors and organ motion uncertainties. For 60 breast cancer patients (24 resected with negative node involvement, 13 resected with positive node involvement and 23 ablated) who were treated with three different irradiation techniques, these uncertainties are simulated. The delivered dose distributions in the lung were recalculated taking positioning uncertainty and breathing effects into account. In this way the real dose distributions delivered to the patients are more closely determined. The positioning uncertainties in the anteroposterior (AP) and the craniocaudal (CC) directions are approximated by Gaussian distributions based on the fact that setup errors are random. Breathing is assumed to have a linear behavior because of the chest wall movement during expiration and inspiration. The combined frequency distribution of the positioning and breathing distributions is obtained by convolution. By integrating the convolved distribution over a number of intervals, the positions and the weights of the fields that simulate the original 'effective fields' are calculated. Opposed tangential fields are simulated by a set of 5 pairs of fields in the AP direction and 3 such sets in the CC direction. Opposed AP + PA fields are simulated by a set of 3 pairs of fields in the AP direction and 3 such sets in the CC direction. Single frontal fields are simulated by a set of 5 fields. In radiotherapy for breast cancer, the lung is often partly within the irradiated volume even though it is a sensitive organ at risk. The influence of the deviation in the dose delivered by the original and the adjusted treatment plans on the clinical outcome is estimated by using the relative seriality model and the biologically effective uniform dose concept. Radiation pneumonitis is used as the clinical endpoint for lung complications. The adjusted treatment plans show larger lung

Dynamic interactions between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose prediction under uncertainty and temporal variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Vikas, E-mail: vikas.kumar@urv.cat [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Barros, Felipe P.J. de [Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089, CA (United States); Schuhmacher, Marta [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier [Hydrogeology Group, Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, University Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech, Barcelona 08034 (Spain)

2013-12-15

Highlights: • Dynamic parametric interaction in daily dose prediction under uncertainty. • Importance of temporal dynamics associated with the dose. • Different dose experienced by different population cohorts as a function of time. • Relevance of uncertainty reduction in the input parameters shows temporal dynamism. -- Abstract: We study the time dependent interaction between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose predictions due to exposure of humans to groundwater contamination. Dose predictions are treated stochastically to account for an incomplete hydrogeological and geochemical field characterization, and an incomplete knowledge of the physiological response. We used a nested Monte Carlo framework to account for uncertainty and variability arising from both hydrogeological and exposure variables. Our interest is in the temporal dynamics of the total dose and their effects on parametric uncertainty reduction. We illustrate the approach to a HCH (lindane) pollution problem at the Ebro River, Spain. The temporal distribution of lindane in the river water can have a strong impact in the evaluation of risk. The total dose displays a non-linear effect on different population cohorts, indicating the need to account for population variability. We then expand the concept of Comparative Information Yield Curves developed earlier (see de Barros et al. [29]) to evaluate parametric uncertainty reduction under temporally variable exposure dose. Results show that the importance of parametric uncertainty reduction varies according to the temporal dynamics of the lindane plume. The approach could be used for any chemical to aid decision makers to better allocate resources towards reducing uncertainty.

Assessment of dose measurement uncertainty using RisøScan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helt-Hansen, J.; Miller, A.

2006-01-01

The dose measurement uncertainty of the dosimeter system RisoScan, office scanner and Riso B3 dosimeters has been assessed by comparison with spectrophotometer measurements of the same dosimeters. The reproducibility and the combined uncertainty were found to be approximately 2% and 4%, respectiv......%, respectively, at one standard deviation. The subroutine in RisoScan for electron energy measurement is shown to give results that are equivalent to the measurements with a scanning spectrophotometer. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

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Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Validation and uncertainty analysis of a pre-treatment 2D dose prediction model

Science.gov (United States)

Baeza, Jose A.; Wolfs, Cecile J. A.; Nijsten, Sebastiaan M. J. J. G.; Verhaegen, Frank

2018-02-01

Independent verification of complex treatment delivery with megavolt photon beam radiotherapy (RT) has been effectively used to detect and prevent errors. This work presents the validation and uncertainty analysis of a model that predicts 2D portal dose images (PDIs) without a patient or phantom in the beam. The prediction model is based on an exponential point dose model with separable primary and secondary photon fluence components. The model includes a scatter kernel, off-axis ratio map, transmission values and penumbra kernels for beam-delimiting components. These parameters were derived through a model fitting procedure supplied with point dose and dose profile measurements of radiation fields. The model was validated against a treatment planning system (TPS; Eclipse) and radiochromic film measurements for complex clinical scenarios, including volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Confidence limits on fitted model parameters were calculated based on simulated measurements. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of the parameter uncertainties on the model output. For the maximum uncertainty, the maximum deviating measurement sets were propagated through the fitting procedure and the model. The overall uncertainty was assessed using all simulated measurements. The validation of the prediction model against the TPS and the film showed a good agreement, with on average 90.8% and 90.5% of pixels passing a (2%,2 mm) global gamma analysis respectively, with a low dose threshold of 10%. The maximum and overall uncertainty of the model is dependent on the type of clinical plan used as input. The results can be used to study the robustness of the model. A model for predicting accurate 2D pre-treatment PDIs in complex RT scenarios can be used clinically and its uncertainties can be taken into account.

Uncertainty of the thyroid dose conversion factor for inhalation intakes of 131I and its parametric uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, R. P.; Hamby, D. M.; Palmer, T. S.

2006-01-01

Inhalation exposures of 131 I may occur in the physical form of a gas as well as a particulate. The physical characteristics pertaining to these different types of releases influence the intake and subsequent dose to an exposed individual. The thyroid dose received is influenced by the route through which 131 I enters the body and its subsequent clearance, absorption and movement throughout the body. The radioactive iodine taken up in the gas-exchange tissues is cleared to other tissues or absorbed into the bloodstream of the individual and transferred to other organs. Iodine in the circulatory system is then taken up by the thyroid gland with resulting dose to that tissue. The magnitude of and uncertainty in the thyroid dose is important to the assessment of individuals exposed to airborne releases of radioiodine. Age- and gender-specific modelling parameters have resulted in significant differences between gas uptake, particulate deposition and inhalation dose conversion factors for each age and gender group. Inhalation dose conversion factors and their inherent uncertainty are markedly affected by the type of iodine intake. These differences are expected due to the modelling of particulate deposition versus uptake of gas in the respiratory tract. Inhalation dose estimates via iodine gases are very similar and separate classifications may not be necessarily based on this assessment. (authors)

The influence of patient positioning uncertainties in proton radiotherapy on proton range and dose distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liebl, Jakob, E-mail: jakob.liebl@medaustron.at [EBG MedAustron GmbH, 2700 Wiener Neustadt (Austria); Francis H. Burr Proton Therapy Center, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02114 (United States); Department of Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology, Medical University of Graz, 8036 Graz (Austria); Paganetti, Harald; Zhu, Mingyao; Winey, Brian A. [Francis H. Burr Proton Therapy Center, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02114 (United States)

2014-09-15

Purpose: Proton radiotherapy allows radiation treatment delivery with high dose gradients. The nature of such dose distributions increases the influence of patient positioning uncertainties on their fidelity when compared to photon radiotherapy. The present work quantitatively analyzes the influence of setup uncertainties on proton range and dose distributions. Methods: Thirty-eight clinical passive scattering treatment fields for small lesions in the head were studied. Dose distributions for shifted and rotated patient positions were Monte Carlo-simulated. Proton range uncertainties at the 50%- and 90%-dose falloff position were calculated considering 18 arbitrary combinations of maximal patient position shifts and rotations for two patient positioning methods. Normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs), equivalent uniform doses (EUDs), and tumor control probabilities (TCPs) were studied for organs at risk (OARs) and target volumes of eight patients. Results: The authors identified a median 1σ proton range uncertainty at the 50%-dose falloff of 2.8 mm for anatomy-based patient positioning and 1.6 mm for fiducial-based patient positioning as well as 7.2 and 5.8 mm for the 90%-dose falloff position, respectively. These range uncertainties were correlated to heterogeneity indices (HIs) calculated for each treatment field (38% < R{sup 2} < 50%). A NTCP increase of more than 10% (absolute) was observed for less than 2.9% (anatomy-based positioning) and 1.2% (fiducial-based positioning) of the studied OARs and patient shifts. For target volumes TCP decreases by more than 10% (absolute) occurred in less than 2.2% of the considered treatment scenarios for anatomy-based patient positioning and were nonexistent for fiducial-based patient positioning. EUD changes for target volumes were up to 35% (anatomy-based positioning) and 16% (fiducial-based positioning). Conclusions: The influence of patient positioning uncertainties on proton range in therapy of small lesions

Uncertainties in estimating heart doses from 2D-tangential breast cancer radiotherapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laugaard Lorenzen, Ebbe; Brink, Carsten; Taylor, Carolyn W.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We evaluated the accuracy of three methods of estimating radiation dose to the heart from two-dimensional tangential radiotherapy for breast cancer, as used in Denmark during 1982-2002. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Three tangential radiotherapy regimens were reconstructed using CT......-based planning scans for 40 patients with left-sided and 10 with right-sided breast cancer. Setup errors and organ motion were simulated using estimated uncertainties. For left-sided patients, mean heart dose was related to maximum heart distance in the medial field. RESULTS: For left-sided breast cancer, mean...... to the uncertainty of estimates based on individual CT-scans. For right-sided breast cancer patients, mean heart dose based on individual CT-scans was always

Dose uncertainties associated with a set density override of unknown hip prosthetic composition.

Science.gov (United States)

Rijken, James D; Colyer, Christopher J

2017-09-01

The dosimetric uncertainties associated with radiotherapy through hip prostheses while overriding the implant to a set density within the TPS has not yet been reported. In this study, the uncertainty in dose within a PTV resulting from this planning choice was investigated. A set of metallic hip prosthetics (stainless steel, titanium, and two different Co-Cr-Mo alloys) were CT scanned in a water bath. Within the TPS, the prosthetic pieces were overridden to densities between 3 and 10 g/cm 3 and irradiated on a linear accelerator. Measured dose maps were compared to the TPS to determine which density was most appropriate to override each metal. This was shown to be in disagreement with the reported literature values of density which was attributed to the TPS dose calculation algorithm and total mass attenuation coefficient differences in water and metal. The dose difference was then calculated for a set density override of 6 g/cm 3 in the TPS and used to estimate the dose uncertainty beyond the prosthesis. For beams passing through an implant, the dosimetric uncertainty in regions of the PTV may be as high as 10% if the implant composition remains unknown and a set density override is used. These results highlight limitations of such assumptions and the need for careful consideration by radiation oncologist, therapist, and physics staff. © 2017 Adelaide Radiotherapy Centre. Journal of Applied Clinical Medical Physics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

A Bayesian Framework of Uncertainties Integration in 3D Geological Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, D.; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

3D geological model can describe complicated geological phenomena in an intuitive way while its application may be limited by uncertain factors. Great progress has been made over the years, lots of studies decompose the uncertainties of geological model to analyze separately, while ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties. Great progress has been made over the years, while lots of studies ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties when analyzed them item by item from each source. To evaluate the synthetical uncertainty, we choose probability distribution to quantify uncertainty, and propose a bayesian framework of uncertainties integration. With this framework, we integrated data errors, spatial randomness, and cognitive information into posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. Uncertainties propagate and cumulate in modeling process, the gradual integration of multi-source uncertainty is a kind of simulation of the uncertainty propagation. Bayesian inference accomplishes uncertainty updating in modeling process. Maximum entropy principle makes a good effect on estimating prior probability distribution, which ensures the prior probability distribution subjecting to constraints supplied by the given information with minimum prejudice. In the end, we obtained a posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. This posterior distribution represents the synthetical impact of all the uncertain factors on the spatial structure of geological model. The framework provides a solution to evaluate synthetical impact on geological model of multi-source uncertainties and a thought to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in geological modeling.

SU-F-T-301: Planar Dose Pass Rate Inflation Due to the MapCHECK Measurement Uncertainty Function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, D; Spaans, J; Kumaraswamy, L; Podgorsak, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: To quantify the effect of the Measurement Uncertainty function on planar dosimetry pass rates, as analyzed with Sun Nuclear Corporation analytic software (“MapCHECK” or “SNC Patient”). This optional function is toggled on by default upon software installation, and automatically increases the user-defined dose percent difference (%Diff) tolerance for each planar dose comparison. Methods: Dose planes from 109 IMRT fields and 40 VMAT arcs were measured with the MapCHECK 2 diode array, and compared to calculated planes from a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates were calculated within the SNC analytic software using varying calculation parameters, including Measurement Uncertainty on and off. By varying the %Diff criterion for each dose comparison performed with Measurement Uncertainty turned off, an effective %Diff criterion was defined for each field/arc corresponding to the pass rate achieved with MapCHECK Uncertainty turned on. Results: For 3%/3mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.8–1.1% average, depending on plan type and calculation technique, for an average pass rate increase of 1.0–3.5% (maximum +8.7%). For 2%, 2 mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.7–1.2% average, for an average pass rate increase of 3.5–8.1% (maximum +14.2%). The largest increases in pass rate are generally seen with poorly-matched planar dose comparisons; the MapCHECK Uncertainty effect is markedly smaller as pass rates approach 100%. Conclusion: The Measurement Uncertainty function may substantially inflate planar dose comparison pass rates for typical IMRT and VMAT planes. The types of uncertainties incorporated into the function (and their associated quantitative estimates) as described in the software user’s manual may not accurately estimate realistic measurement uncertainty for the user’s measurement conditions. Pass rates listed in published

SU-F-T-301: Planar Dose Pass Rate Inflation Due to the MapCHECK Measurement Uncertainty Function

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bailey, D [Northside Hospital Cancer Institute, Atlanta, GA (United States); Spaans, J; Kumaraswamy, L; Podgorsak, M [Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To quantify the effect of the Measurement Uncertainty function on planar dosimetry pass rates, as analyzed with Sun Nuclear Corporation analytic software (“MapCHECK” or “SNC Patient”). This optional function is toggled on by default upon software installation, and automatically increases the user-defined dose percent difference (%Diff) tolerance for each planar dose comparison. Methods: Dose planes from 109 IMRT fields and 40 VMAT arcs were measured with the MapCHECK 2 diode array, and compared to calculated planes from a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates were calculated within the SNC analytic software using varying calculation parameters, including Measurement Uncertainty on and off. By varying the %Diff criterion for each dose comparison performed with Measurement Uncertainty turned off, an effective %Diff criterion was defined for each field/arc corresponding to the pass rate achieved with MapCHECK Uncertainty turned on. Results: For 3%/3mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.8–1.1% average, depending on plan type and calculation technique, for an average pass rate increase of 1.0–3.5% (maximum +8.7%). For 2%, 2 mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.7–1.2% average, for an average pass rate increase of 3.5–8.1% (maximum +14.2%). The largest increases in pass rate are generally seen with poorly-matched planar dose comparisons; the MapCHECK Uncertainty effect is markedly smaller as pass rates approach 100%. Conclusion: The Measurement Uncertainty function may substantially inflate planar dose comparison pass rates for typical IMRT and VMAT planes. The types of uncertainties incorporated into the function (and their associated quantitative estimates) as described in the software user’s manual may not accurately estimate realistic measurement uncertainty for the user’s measurement conditions. Pass rates listed in published

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

1993-04-01

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

Integrated uncertainty analysis using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez, M.; Reventos, F.; Wagner, R.; Allison, C.

2009-01-01

The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalunya (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). The integrated uncertainty analysis approach used in the package uses the following steps: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. The first four steps are performed by the user prior to the RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 analysis. The remaining steps are included with the MOD4.0 integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package. This paper briefly describes the integrated uncertainty analysis package including (a) the features of the package, (b) the implementation of the package into RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, and

Uncertainty of inhalation dose coefficients for representative physical and chemical forms of iodine-131

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Richard Paul, III

Releases of radioactive material have occurred at various Department of Energy (DOE) weapons facilities and facilities associated with the nuclear fuel cycle in the generation of electricity. Many different radionuclides have been released to the environment with resulting exposure of the population to these various sources of radioactivity. Radioiodine has been released from a number of these facilities and is a potential public health concern due to its physical and biological characteristics. Iodine exists as various isotopes, but our focus is on 131I due to its relatively long half-life, its prevalence in atmospheric releases and its contribution to offsite dose. The assumption of physical and chemical form is speculated to have a profound impact on the deposition of radioactive material within the respiratory tract. In the case of iodine, it has been shown that more than one type of physical and chemical form may be released to, or exist in, the environment; iodine can exist as a particle or as a gas. The gaseous species can be further segregated based on chemical form: elemental, inorganic, and organic iodides. Chemical compounds in each class are assumed to behave similarly with respect to biochemistry. Studies at Oak Ridge National Laboratories have demonstrated that 131I is released as a particulate, as well as in elemental, inorganic and organic chemical form. The internal dose estimate from 131I may be very different depending on the effect that chemical form has on fractional deposition, gas uptake, and clearance in the respiratory tract. There are many sources of uncertainty in the estimation of environmental dose including source term, airborne transport of radionuclides, and internal dosimetry. Knowledge of uncertainty in internal dosimetry is essential for estimating dose to members of the public and for determining total uncertainty in dose estimation. Important calculational steps in any lung model is regional estimation of deposition fractions

SU-E-J-116: Uncertainties Associated with Dose Summation of High-Dose Rate Brachytherapy and Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy for Gynecological Cases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kauweloa, K; Bergamo, A; Gutierrez, A; Stathakis, S; Papanikolaou, N; Kirby, N [University of Texas HSC SA, San Antonio, TX (United States); Cancer Therapy and Research Center, San Antonio, TX (United States); Mavroidis, P [University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)

2015-06-15

Purpose: Determining the cumulative dose distribution (CDD) for gynecological patients treated with both high-dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is challenging. The purpose of this work is to study the uncertainty of performing this with a structure-guided deformable (SGD) approach in Velocity. Methods: For SGD, the Hounsfield units inside specified contours are overridden to set uniform values. Deformable image registration (DIR) is the run on these process images, which forces the DIR to focus on these contour boundaries. 18 gynecological cancer patients were used in this study. The original bladder and rectum planning contours for these patients were used to drive the SGD. A second set of contours were made of the bladder by the same person with the intent of carefully making them completely consistent with each other. This second set was utilized to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the SGD. The determined spatial accuracy was then multiplied by the local dose gradient to determine a dose uncertainty associated with the SGD dose warping. The normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) was then calculated for each dose volume histogram (DVH) that included four different probabilistic uncertainties associated with the spatial errors (e.g., 68.3% and 95.4%). Results: The NTCPs for each DVH (e.g., NTCP-−95.4%, NTCP-−68.3%, NTCP-68.3%, NTCP-95.4%) differed amongst patients. All patients had an NTCP-−95.4% close to 0%, while NTCP-95.4% ranged from 0.67% to 100%. Nine patients had an NTCP-−95.4% less than 50% while the remaining nine patients had NTCP-95.4% greater than 50%. Conclusion: The uncertainty associated with this CDD technique renders a large NTCP uncertainty. Thus, it is currently not practical for clinical use. The two ways to improve this would be to use more precise contours to drive the SGD and to use a more accurate DIR algorithm.

Evaluation of uncertainties in the calibration of radiation personal monitor with Cesium-137 source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirapalheta, Tatiane; Alexandre, Anderson; Costa, Camila; Batista, Gilmar; Paulino, Thyago; Albuquerque, Marcos; Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

2016-01-01

This work shows the entire calibration process of an individual monitor, focusing on radiation protection, in health, correlating these measures associated uncertainties. The results show an expanded uncertainty of 5.81% for dose rate measurements and an expanded uncertainty of 5.61% for integrated dose measurements, these uncertainties have been evaluated the type A and type B with its components. (author)

Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of dose estimates in radiochromic film dosimetry with single-channel and multichannel algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Vera-Sánchez, Juan Antonio; Ruiz-Morales, Carmen; González-López, Antonio

2018-03-01

To provide a multi-stage model to calculate uncertainty in radiochromic film dosimetry with Monte-Carlo techniques. This new approach is applied to single-channel and multichannel algorithms. Two lots of Gafchromic EBT3 are exposed in two different Varian linacs. They are read with an EPSON V800 flatbed scanner. The Monte-Carlo techniques in uncertainty analysis provide a numerical representation of the probability density functions of the output magnitudes. From this numerical representation, traditional parameters of uncertainty analysis as the standard deviations and bias are calculated. Moreover, these numerical representations are used to investigate the shape of the probability density functions of the output magnitudes. Also, another calibration film is read in four EPSON scanners (two V800 and two 10000XL) and the uncertainty analysis is carried out with the four images. The dose estimates of single-channel and multichannel algorithms show a Gaussian behavior and low bias. The multichannel algorithms lead to less uncertainty in the final dose estimates when the EPSON V800 is employed as reading device. In the case of the EPSON 10000XL, the single-channel algorithms provide less uncertainty in the dose estimates for doses higher than four Gy. A multi-stage model has been presented. With the aid of this model and the use of the Monte-Carlo techniques, the uncertainty of dose estimates for single-channel and multichannel algorithms are estimated. The application of the model together with Monte-Carlo techniques leads to a complete characterization of the uncertainties in radiochromic film dosimetry. Copyright © 2018 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of uncertainties in the measurements of absorbed dose to water in a secondary standard dosimetry laboratory (SSDL) 60Cobalt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Cosme Norival Mello da; Rosado, Paulo Henrique Goncalves

2011-01-01

The National Metrology Laboratory of Ionizing Radiation (LNMRI) is the laboratory designated by INMETRO in the field of Metrology of ionizing radiation and is a Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). One of its guidelines is to maintain and disseminate LNMRI absorbed dose in water used as a national standard dosimetry in radiotherapy. For this pattern is metrologically acceptable accuracy and uncertainties should be assessed over time. The objective of this study is to analyze the uncertainties involved in determining the absorbed dose rate in water and standard uncertainty of absorbed dose calibration in water from a clinical dosimeter. The largest sources of uncertainty in determining the rate of absorbed dose in water are due to: calibration coefficient of the calibration certificate supplied by the BIPM, electrometer calibration, camber stability over time, variation of pressure and humidity, strong dependence and non-uniformity of the field. The expanded uncertainty is 0.94% for k = 2. For the calibration standard uncertainty of absorbed dose in water of a dosimeter in a clinical a major source of uncertainty is due to the absorbed dose rate in water (0.94%). The value of expanded uncertainty of calibrating a clinical dosimeter is 1.2% for k = 2. (author)

Delivered dose uncertainty analysis at the tumor apex for ocular brachytherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morrison, Hali, E-mail: hamorris@ualberta.ca; Menon, Geetha; Larocque, Matthew P.; Jans, Hans-Sonke; Sloboda, Ron S. [Department of Medical Physics, Cross Cancer Institute, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2, Canada and Department of Oncology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R3 (Canada); Weis, Ezekiel [Department of Ophthalmology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R3 (Canada)

2016-08-15

Purpose: To estimate the total dosimetric uncertainty at the tumor apex for ocular brachytherapy treatments delivered using 16 mm Collaborative Ocular Melanoma Study (COMS) and Super9 plaques loaded with {sup 125}I seeds in order to determine the size of the apex margin that would be required to ensure adequate dosimetric coverage of the tumor. Methods: The total dosimetric uncertainty was assessed for three reference tumor heights: 3, 5, and 10 mm, using the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement/National Institute of Standards and Technology approach. Uncertainties pertaining to seed construction, source strength, plaque assembly, treatment planning calculations, tumor height measurement, plaque placement, and plaque tilt for a simple dome-shaped tumor were investigated and quantified to estimate the total dosimetric uncertainty at the tumor apex. Uncertainties in seed construction were determined using EBT3 Gafchromic film measurements around single seeds, plaque assembly uncertainties were determined using high resolution microCT scanning of loaded plaques to measure seed positions in the plaques, and all other uncertainties were determined from the previously published studies and recommended values. All dose calculations were performed using PLAQUESIMULATOR v5.7.6 ophthalmic treatment planning system with the inclusion of plaque heterogeneity corrections. Results: The total dosimetric uncertainties at 3, 5, and 10 mm tumor heights for the 16 mm COMS plaque were 17.3%, 16.1%, and 14.2%, respectively, and for the Super9 plaque were 18.2%, 14.4%, and 13.1%, respectively (all values with coverage factor k = 2). The apex margins at 3, 5, and 10 mm tumor heights required to adequately account for these uncertainties were 1.3, 1.3, and 1.4 mm, respectively, for the 16 mm COMS plaque, and 1.8, 1.4, and 1.2 mm, respectively, for the Super9 plaque. These uncertainties and associated margins are dependent on the dose gradient at the given prescription

Uncertainty analysis for an updated dose assessment for a US nuclear test site: Bikini Atoll

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.; Robison, W.L.

1995-11-01

A detailed analysis of uncertainty and interindividual variability in estimated doses was conducted for a rehabilitation scenario for Bikini Island at Bikini Atoll, in which the top 40 cm of soil would be removed in the housing and village area, and the rest of the island is treated with potassium fertilizer, prior to an assumed resettlement date of 1999. Predicted doses were considered for the following fallout-related exposure pathways: ingested Cesium-137 and Strontium-90, external gamma exposure, and inhalation and ingestion of Americium-241 + Plutonium-239+240. Two dietary scenarios were considered: (1) imported foods are available (IA), and (2) imported foods are unavailable (only local foods are consumed) (IUA). Corresponding calculations of uncertainty in estimated population-average dose showed that after ∼5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to uncertainty in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its population-average value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). Corresponding calculations of interindividual variability in the expected value of dose with respect to uncertainty showed that after ∼5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to interindividual variability in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its expected value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). For reference, the expected values of population-average dose at age 70 were estimated to be 1.6 and 5.2 cSv under the IA and IUA dietary assumptions, respectively. Assuming that 200 Bikini resettlers would be exposed to local foods (under both IA and IUA assumptions), the maximum 1-y dose received by any Bikini resident is most likely to be approximately 2 and 8 mSv under the IA and IUA assumptions, respectively

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden); Patriksson, Michael [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

2009-02-15

Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

2009-01-01

Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

Preliminary uncertainty analysis for the doses estimated using the Techa River dosimetry system - 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Napier, Bruce A.; Shagina, N B.; Degteva, M O.; Tolstykh, E I.; Vorobiova, M I.; Anspaugh, L R.

2000-01-01

The Mayak Production Association (MPA) was the first facility in the former Soviet Union for the production of plutonium. As a result of failures in the technological processes in the late 1940's and early 1950's, members of the public were exposed via discharge of about 1017 Bq of liquid wastes into the Techa River (1949-1956). Residents of many villages downstream on the Techa River were exposed via a variety of pathways; the more significant included drinking of water from the river and external gamma exposure due to proximity to sediments and shoreline. The specific aim of this project is to enhance the reconstruction of external and internal radiation doses for individuals in the Extended Techa River Cohort. The purpose of this paper is to present the approaches being used to evaluate the uncertainty in the calculated individual doses and to provide example and representative results of the uncertainty analyses. The magnitude of the uncertainties varies depending on location and time of individual exposure, but the results from reference-individual calculations indicate that for external doses, the range of uncertainty is about factors of four to five. For internal doses, the range of uncertainty depends on village of residence, which is actually a surrogate for source of drinking water. For villages with single sources of drinking water (river or well), the ratio of the 97.5th percentile-to 2.5th percentile estimates can be a factor of 20 to 30. For villages with mixed sources of drinking water (river and well), the ratio of the range can be over two orders of magnitude

A review of the uncertainties in internal radiation dose assessment for inhaled thorium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hewson, G.S.

1989-01-01

Present assessments of internal radiation dose to designated radiation workers in the mineral sands industry, calculated using ICRP 26/30 methodology and data, indicate that some workers approach and exceed statutory radiation dose limits. Such exposures are indicative of the need for a critical assessment of work and operational procedures and also of metabolic and dosimetric models used to estimate internal dose. This paper reviews past occupational exposure experience with inhaled thorium compounds, examines uncertainties in the underlying radiation protection models, and indicates the effect of alternative assumptions on the calculation of committed effective dose equivalent. The extremely low recommended inhalation limits for thorium in air do not appear to be well supported by studies on the health status of former thorium refinery workers who were exposed to thorium well in excess of presently accepted limits. The effect of cautious model assumptions is shown to result in internal dose assessments that could be up to an order of magnitude too high. It is concluded that the effect of such uncertainty constrains the usefulness of internal dose estimates as a reliable indicator of actual health risk. 26 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Sluijs, J.P.

1995-01-01

Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP (Numerical, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree), that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders. 3 tabs., 20 refs

Estimated of associated uncertainties of the linearity test of dose calibrators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sousa, Carlos H.S.; Peixoto, Jose G.P.

2013-01-01

Activimeters determine the activity of radioactive samples and them are validated by performance tests. This research determined the expanded uncertainties associated to the linearity test. Were used three dose calibrators and three sources of 99 Tc m for testing using recommended protocol by the IAEA, which considered the decay of radioactive samples. The expanded uncertainties evaluated were not correlated with each other and their analysis considered a rectangular probability distribution. The results are also presented in graphical form by the function of normalized activity measured in terms of conventional true value. (author)

Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

2014-12-01

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Reducing Dose Uncertainty for Spot-Scanning Proton Beam Therapy of Moving Tumors by Optimizing the Spot Delivery Sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Heng; Zhu, X. Ronald; Zhang, Xiaodong

2015-01-01

Purpose: To develop and validate a novel delivery strategy for reducing the respiratory motion–induced dose uncertainty of spot-scanning proton therapy. Methods and Materials: The spot delivery sequence was optimized to reduce dose uncertainty. The effectiveness of the delivery sequence optimization was evaluated using measurements and patient simulation. One hundred ninety-one 2-dimensional measurements using different delivery sequences of a single-layer uniform pattern were obtained with a detector array on a 1-dimensional moving platform. Intensity modulated proton therapy plans were generated for 10 lung cancer patients, and dose uncertainties for different delivery sequences were evaluated by simulation. Results: Without delivery sequence optimization, the maximum absolute dose error can be up to 97.2% in a single measurement, whereas the optimized delivery sequence results in a maximum absolute dose error of ≤11.8%. In patient simulation, the optimized delivery sequence reduces the mean of fractional maximum absolute dose error compared with the regular delivery sequence by 3.3% to 10.6% (32.5-68.0% relative reduction) for different patients. Conclusions: Optimizing the delivery sequence can reduce dose uncertainty due to respiratory motion in spot-scanning proton therapy, assuming the 4-dimensional CT is a true representation of the patients' breathing patterns.

Incorporating organ movements in inverse planning: assessing dose uncertainties by Bayesian inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unkelbach, J; Oelfke, U

2005-01-01

We present a method to calculate dose uncertainties due to inter-fraction organ movements in fractionated radiotherapy, i.e. in addition to the expectation value of the dose distribution a variance distribution is calculated. To calculate the expectation value of the dose distribution in the presence of organ movements, one estimates a probability distribution of possible patient geometries. The respective variance of the expected dose distribution arises for two reasons: first, the patient is irradiated with a finite number of fractions only and second, the probability distribution of patient geometries has to be estimated from a small number of images and is therefore not exactly known. To quantify the total dose variance, we propose a method that is based on the principle of Bayesian inference. The method is of particular interest when organ motion is incorporated in inverse IMRT planning by means of inverse planning performed on a probability distribution of patient geometries. In order to make this a robust approach, it turns out that the dose variance should be considered (and minimized) in the optimization process. As an application of the presented concept of Bayesian inference, we compare three approaches to inverse planning based on probability distributions that account for an increasing degree of uncertainty. The Bayes theorem further provides a concept to interpolate between patient specific data and population-based knowledge on organ motion which is relevant since the number of CT images of a patient is typically small

A review of occupational dose assessment uncertainties and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, R. W.

2004-01-01

The Radiological Protection Practitioner (RPP) will spend a considerable proportion of his time predicting or assessing retrospective radiation exposures to occupational personnel for different purposes. The assessments can be for a variety of purposes, such as to predict doses for occupational dose control, or project design purposes or to make retrospective estimates for the dose record, or account for dosemeters which have been lost or damaged. There are other less frequent occasions when dose assessment will be required such as to support legal cases and compensation claims and to provide the detailed dose information for epidemiological studies. It is important that the level of detail, justification and supporting evidence in the dose assessment is suitable for the requirements. So for instance, day to day operational dose assessments often rely mainly on the knowledge of the RPP in discussion with operators whilst at the other end of the spectrum a historical dose assessment for a legal case will require substantial research and supporting evidence for the estimate to withstand forensic challenge. The robustness of the assessment will depend on many factors including a knowledge of the work activities, the radiation dose uptake and field characteristics; all of which are affected by factors such as the time elapsed, the memory of operators and the dosemeters employed. This paper reviews the various options and uncertainties in dose assessments ranging from use of personal dosimetry results to the development of upper bound assessments. The level of assessment, the extent of research and the evidence adduced should then be appropriate to the end use of the estimate. (Author)

Uncertainty analysis in the determination of absorbed dose in water by Fricke chemical dosimetry; Analise das incertezas na determinacao da dose absorvida na agua por dosimetria quimica Fricke

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vasconcelos, Fabia; Aguirre, Eder Aguirre, E-mail: fabiavasco@hotmail.com, E-mail: ederuni01@gmail.com [Fundacao do Cancer, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), RJ (Brazil)

2016-07-01

This work studies the calculations of uncertainties and the level of confidence that involves the process for obtaining the dose absorbed in water using the method of Fricke dosimetry, developed at Laboratorio de Ciencias Radiologicas (LCR). Measurements of absorbance of samples Fricke, irradiated and non-irradiated is going to use in order to calculate the respective sensitivity coefficients, along with the expressions of the calculation of Fricke dose and the absorbed dose in water. Those expressions are used for calculating the others sensitivity coefficients from the input variable. It is going to use the combined uncertainty and the expanded uncertainty, with a level of confidence of 95.45%, in order to report the uncertainties of the measurement. (author)

TH-C-BRD-07: Minimizing Dose Uncertainty for Spot Scanning Beam Proton Therapy of Moving Tumor with Optimization of Delivery Sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, H; Zhang, X; Zhu, X; Li, Y

2014-01-01

Purpose: Intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) has been shown to be able to reduce dose to normal tissue compared to intensity modulated photon radio-therapy (IMRT), and has been implemented for selected lung cancer patients. However, respiratory motion-induced dose uncertainty remain one of the major concerns for the radiotherapy of lung cancer, and the utility of IMPT for lung patients was limited because of the proton dose uncertainty induced by motion. Strategies such as repainting and tumor tracking have been proposed and studied but repainting could result in unacceptable long delivery time and tracking is not yet clinically available. We propose a novel delivery strategy for spot scanning proton beam therapy. Method: The effective number of delivery (END) for each spot position in a treatment plan was calculated based on the parameters of the delivery system, including time required for each spot, spot size and energy. The dose uncertainty was then calculated with an analytical formula. The spot delivery sequence was optimized to maximize END and minimize the dose uncertainty. 2D Measurements with a detector array on a 1D moving platform were performed to validate the calculated results. Results: 143 2D measurements on a moving platform were performed for different delivery sequences of a single layer uniform pattern. The measured dose uncertainty is a strong function of the delivery sequence, the worst delivery sequence results in dose error up to 70% while the optimized delivery sequence results in dose error of <5%. END vs. measured dose uncertainty follows the analytical formula. Conclusion: With optimized delivery sequence, it is feasible to minimize the dose uncertainty due to motion in spot scanning proton therapy

Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability to Characterize Potential Health Risk From Trichloroethylene-Contaminated Ground Water Beale Air Force Base in California: Integration of Uncertainty and Variability in Pharmacokinetics and Dose-Response; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogen, K.T.

1999-01-01

Traditional estimates of health risk are typically inflated, particularly if cancer is the dominant endpoint and there is fundamental uncertainty as to mechanism(s) of action. Risk is more realistically characterized if it accounts for joint uncertainty and interindividual variability after applying a unified probabilistic approach to the distributed parameters of all (linear as well as nonlinear) risk-extrapolation models involved. Such an approach was applied to characterize risks to potential future residents posed by trichloroethylene (TCE) in ground water at an inactive landfill site on Beale Air Force Base in California. Variability and uncertainty were addressed in exposure-route-specific estimates of applied dose, in pharmacokinetically based estimates of route-specific metabolized fractions of absorbed TCE, and in corresponding biologically effective doses estimated under a genotoxic/linear (MA(sub g)) vs. a cytotoxic/nonlinear (MA(sub c)) mechanistic assumption for TCE-induced cancer. Increased risk conditional on effective dose was estimated under MA(sub G) based on seven rodent-bioassay data sets, and under MA, based on mouse hepatotoxicity data. Mean and upper-bound estimates of combined risk calculated by the unified approach were and lt;10(sup -6) and and lt;10(sup -4), respectively, while corresponding estimates based on traditional deterministic methods were and gt;10(sup -5) and and gt;10(sup -4), respectively. It was estimated that no TCE-related harm is likely occur due any plausible residential exposure scenario involving the site. The unified approach illustrated is particularly suited to characterizing risks that involve uncertain and/or diverse mechanisms of action

SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstl, S.A.W.

1980-01-01

SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE

SU-E-T-324: The Influence of Patient Positioning Uncertainties in Proton Radiotherapy On Proton Range and Dose Distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liebl, J [EBG MedAustron GmbH, Wiener Neustadt (Austria); Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Medical University of Graz, Graz (Austria); Paganetti, H; Winey, B [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

2014-06-01

Purpose: Proton radiotherapy allows radiation treatment delivery with high dose gradients. The nature of such dose distributions increases the influence of patient positioning uncertainties on their fidelity when compared to photon radiotherapy. The present work quantitatively analyzes the influence of setup uncertainties on proton range and dose distributions. Methods: 38 clinical passive scattering treatment fields for small lesions in the head were studied. Dose distributions for shifted and rotated patient positions were Monte Carlo-simulated. Proton range uncertainties at the 50% and 90%-dose falloff position were calculated considering 18 arbitrary combinations of maximal patient position shifts and rotations for two patient positioning methods. Normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs), equivalent uniform doses (EUDs) and tumor control probabilities (TCPs) were studied for organs at risk (OARs) and target volumes of eight patients. Results: We identified a median 1σ proton range uncertainty at the 50%-dose falloff of 2.8 mm for anatomy-based patient positioning and 1.6 mm for fiducial-based patient positioning as well as 7.2 mm and 5.8 mm for the 90%-dose falloff position respectively. These range uncertainties were correlated to heterogeneity indices (HIs) calculated for each treatment field (38% < R{sup 2} < 50%). A NTCP increase of more than 10% (absolute) was observed for less than 2.9% (anatomy-based positioning) and 1.2% (fiducial-based positioning) of the studied OARs and patient shifts. TCP decreases larger than 10% (absolute) were seen for less than 2.2% of the target volumes or non-existent. EUD changes were up to 178% for OARs and 35% for target volumes. Conclusion: The influence of patient positioning uncertainties on proton range in therapy of small lesions in the human brain and target and OAR dosimetry were studied. Observed range uncertainties were correlated with HIs. The clinical practice of using multiple compensator

Effect of uncertainty in nasal airway deposition of radioactive particles on effective dose

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guilmette, R.A.; Birchall, A.; Jarvis, N.S

1998-07-01

In the current ICRP human respiratory tract (RT) model (ICRP Publication 66), the deposition of particles in various regions of the RT during natural breathing is modelled by considering the RT as a series of filters, resulting in deposition probabilities for distal portions of the RT being dependent on those of the proximal segments. Thus, uncertainties in regional deposition in proximal segments of the RT are reflected or propagated in uncertainties in deposition in the distal segments of the lung. Experimental data on aerosol particle deposition have demonstrated significant variability in nasal airway (NA) deposition for different individuals studied. This report summarises the impact of introducing variability in NA deposition efficiency on the calculation of effective doses using the ICRP 66 model for selected radionuclides. The computer software LUDEP, modified for this purpose, was used to customise deposition patterns, and effective doses were calculated for several radionuclides ({sup 111}In, {sup 106}Ru, {sup 60}Co, {sup 210}Po, {sup 238}U and {sup 239}Pu) chosen to represent isotopes with various decay schemes and half-lives. The results indicated significant but particle-size-specific effects of assumed NA deposition efficiencies on the calculated effective doses, which varied typically by factors of five to six. The majority of the variability was associated with direct effects on deposition patterns, but in some cases, alterations of radiation dose distribution within the various target organs also contributed to the variability. These results provide a basis for evaluating uncertainties due to inter-individual differences in deposition patterns for radiation protection and risk analysis. (author)

Methodology for optimization of process integration schemes in a biorefinery under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >González-Cortés, Meilyn; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Martínez-Martínez, Yenisleidys; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Albernas-Carvajal, Yailet; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Pedraza-Garciga, Julio; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Morales-Zamora, Marlen

2017-01-01

The uncertainty has a great impact in the investment decisions, operability of the plants and in the feasibility of integration opportunities in the chemical processes. This paper, presents the steps to consider the optimization of process investment in the processes integration under conditions of uncertainty. It is shown the potentialities of the biomass cane of sugar for the integration with several plants in a biorefinery scheme for the obtaining chemical products, thermal and electric energy. Among the factories with potentialities for this integration are the pulp and paper and sugar factories and other derivative processes. Theses factories have common resources and also have a variety of products that can be exchange between them so certain products generated in a one of them can be raw matter in another plant. The methodology developed guide to obtaining of feasible investment projects under uncertainty. As objective function was considered the maximization of net profitable value in different scenarios that are generated from the integration scheme. (author)

Uncertainties in contamination level and in doses after exposure to actinide aerosols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fritsch, P.; Berard, P.; Frank, D.; Ansoborlo, E.; Fottorino, R.; Challeton-Devatayre, C.; Miele, A.; Blanchin, N.; Raynaud, P.; Piechowski, J.

2006-01-01

A task group named 'Methodes Dosimetriques de Reference' (M.E.D.O.R.) has been created recently to provide didactic tools for dose estimation from bioassay data obtained after occupational exposure. This task group is focused on 1) application limits of the available models, 2) uncertainties in radionuclide biokinetics and in doses, and 3) identification of the main parameters involved in these uncertainties. First, uncertainties in biokinetics of 239 Pu (thoracic retention and excretion) and in doses have been estimated after acute inhalation of PuO 2 (A.M.A.D. 5μm, type S). This was performed either when the activity of the inhaled aerosol (case 1) or the thoracic retention on day 1 (case 2) could be measured. Variability assigned to the different parameters of the ICRP models was that previously reported. After simulation, a lognormal distribution of the results was observed so that uncertainties can be expressed as 95 % Confidence interval Ratio (C.R.=σ g 4 ). In case 1, most of the uncertainties were due to aerosol deposition and remained nearly constant for 1000 days after exposure (thoracic, faecal and urinary C.R. of 8, 6 -30 and 10, respectively). In contrast, in case 2, thoracic C.R. gradually increased from 1.5 to 5, faecal C.R. was similar to that of case 1 up to 20 days and then sharply decreased to about 3, whereas C.R. of urinary excretion remained similar to case 1 throughout the 1000 day period. Uncertainties in D.P.U.I. were much higher in case 1 (C.R.=7) than in case 2 (C.R.=2) and were both mainly due to the uncertainties in thoracic equivalent doses. Second, different bioassay data were analysed to verify if the observed results were within the C.R. previously calculated for case 2. Two cases are provided as examples which appeared out of this range. The first one corresponds to an acute exposure to PuO 2 aerosols which was followed for about 20 years. Fit analysis has shown a low value of the slow dissolution rate of the compound and an

Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.

2004-01-01

Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem

42 CFR 82.19 - How will NIOSH address uncertainty about dose levels?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... characterized with a probability distribution that accounts for the uncertainty of the estimate. This information will be used by DOL in the calculation of probability of causation, under HHS guidelines for... THE ENERGY EMPLOYEES OCCUPATIONAL ILLNESS COMPENSATION PROGRAM ACT OF 2000 Dose Reconstruction Process...

Improved Genetic Algorithm-Based Unit Commitment Considering Uncertainty Integration Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyu-Hyung Jo

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In light of the dissemination of renewable energy connected to the power grid, it has become necessary to consider the uncertainty in the generation of renewable energy as a unit commitment (UC problem. A methodology for solving the UC problem is presented by considering various uncertainties, which are assumed to have a normal distribution, by using a Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the constructed scenarios for load, wind, solar, and generator outages, a combination of scenarios is found that meets the reserve requirement to secure the power balance of the power grid. In those scenarios, the uncertainty integration method (UIM identifies the best combination by minimizing the additional reserve requirements caused by the uncertainty of power sources. An integration process for uncertainties is formulated for stochastic unit commitment (SUC problems and optimized by the improved genetic algorithm (IGA. The IGA is composed of five procedures and finds the optimal combination of unit status at the scheduled time, based on the determined source data. According to the number of unit systems, the IGA demonstrates better performance than the other optimization methods by applying reserve repairing and an approximation process. To account for the result of the proposed method, various UC strategies are tested with a modified 24-h UC test system and compared.

GafChromic EBT film dosimetry with flatbed CCD scanner: A novel background correction method and full dose uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saur, Sigrun; Frengen, Jomar

2008-01-01

Film dosimetry using radiochromic EBT film in combination with a flatbed charge coupled device scanner is a useful method both for two-dimensional verification of intensity-modulated radiation treatment plans and for general quality assurance of treatment planning systems and linear accelerators. Unfortunately, the response over the scanner area is nonuniform, and when not corrected for, this results in a systematic error in the measured dose which is both dose and position dependent. In this study a novel method for background correction is presented. The method is based on the subtraction of a correction matrix, a matrix that is based on scans of films that are irradiated to nine dose levels in the range 0.08-2.93 Gy. Because the response of the film is dependent on the film's orientation with respect to the scanner, correction matrices for both landscape oriented and portrait oriented scans were made. In addition to the background correction method, a full dose uncertainty analysis of the film dosimetry procedure was performed. This analysis takes into account the fit uncertainty of the calibration curve, the variation in response for different film sheets, the nonuniformity after background correction, and the noise in the scanned films. The film analysis was performed for film pieces of size 16x16 cm, all with the same lot number, and all irradiations were done perpendicular onto the films. The results show that the 2-sigma dose uncertainty at 2 Gy is about 5% and 3.5% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The uncertainty gradually increases as the dose decreases, but at 1 Gy the 2-sigma dose uncertainty is still as good as 6% and 4% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The study shows that film dosimetry using GafChromic EBT film, an Epson Expression 1680 Professional scanner and a dedicated background correction technique gives precise and accurate results. For the purpose of dosimetric verification, the calculated dose distribution can

GafChromic EBT film dosimetry with flatbed CCD scanner: a novel background correction method and full dose uncertainty analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Saur, Sigrun; Frengen, Jomar

2008-07-01

Film dosimetry using radiochromic EBT film in combination with a flatbed charge coupled device scanner is a useful method both for two-dimensional verification of intensity-modulated radiation treatment plans and for general quality assurance of treatment planning systems and linear accelerators. Unfortunately, the response over the scanner area is nonuniform, and when not corrected for, this results in a systematic error in the measured dose which is both dose and position dependent. In this study a novel method for background correction is presented. The method is based on the subtraction of a correction matrix, a matrix that is based on scans of films that are irradiated to nine dose levels in the range 0.08-2.93 Gy. Because the response of the film is dependent on the film's orientation with respect to the scanner, correction matrices for both landscape oriented and portrait oriented scans were made. In addition to the background correction method, a full dose uncertainty analysis of the film dosimetry procedure was performed. This analysis takes into account the fit uncertainty of the calibration curve, the variation in response for different film sheets, the nonuniformity after background correction, and the noise in the scanned films. The film analysis was performed for film pieces of size 16 x 16 cm, all with the same lot number, and all irradiations were done perpendicular onto the films. The results show that the 2-sigma dose uncertainty at 2 Gy is about 5% and 3.5% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The uncertainty gradually increases as the dose decreases, but at 1 Gy the 2-sigma dose uncertainty is still as good as 6% and 4% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The study shows that film dosimetry using GafChromic EBT film, an Epson Expression 1680 Professional scanner and a dedicated background correction technique gives precise and accurate results. For the purpose of dosimetric verification, the calculated dose distribution

Evaluation of the uncertainties in the TLD radiosurgery postal dose system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campos, Luciana Tourinho; Leite, Sandro Passos; Almeida, Carlos Eduardo Veloso de; Magalhães, Luís Alexandre Gonçalves

2017-01-01

Radiosurgery is a single-fraction radiation therapy procedure for treating intracranial lesions using a stereotactic apparatus and multiple narrow beams delivered through noncoplanar isocentric arcs. The Radiological Science Laboratory (LCR/UERJ) operates a postal audit programme in SRT and SRS. The purpose of the programme is to verify the target localization accuracy and the dosimetric conditions of the TPS. The programme works in such a way those TLDs are sent to the centre where they are to be irradiated to a certain dose. The aim of the present work is estimate the uncertainties in the process of dose determination, using experimental data. (author)

Evaluation of the uncertainties in the TLD radiosurgery postal dose system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campos, Luciana Tourinho; Leite, Sandro Passos; Almeida, Carlos Eduardo Veloso de; Magalhães, Luís Alexandre Gonçalves, E-mail: tc_luciana@yahoo.com.br [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

Radiosurgery is a single-fraction radiation therapy procedure for treating intracranial lesions using a stereotactic apparatus and multiple narrow beams delivered through noncoplanar isocentric arcs. The Radiological Science Laboratory (LCR/UERJ) operates a postal audit programme in SRT and SRS. The purpose of the programme is to verify the target localization accuracy and the dosimetric conditions of the TPS. The programme works in such a way those TLDs are sent to the centre where they are to be irradiated to a certain dose. The aim of the present work is estimate the uncertainties in the process of dose determination, using experimental data. (author)

Integrating uncertainty into public energy research and development decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Anadón, Laura Díaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina

2017-05-01

Public energy research and development (R&D) is recognized as a key policy tool for transforming the world's energy system in a cost-effective way. However, managing the uncertainty surrounding technological change is a critical challenge for designing robust and cost-effective energy policies. The design of such policies is particularly important if countries are going to both meet the ambitious greenhouse-gas emissions reductions goals set by the Paris Agreement and achieve the required harmonization with the broader set of objectives dictated by the Sustainable Development Goals. The complexity of informing energy technology policy requires, and is producing, a growing collaboration between different academic disciplines and practitioners. Three analytical components have emerged to support the integration of technological uncertainty into energy policy: expert elicitations, integrated assessment models, and decision frameworks. Here we review efforts to incorporate all three approaches to facilitate public energy R&D decision-making under uncertainty. We highlight emerging insights that are robust across elicitations, models, and frameworks, relating to the allocation of public R&D investments, and identify gaps and challenges that remain.

Uncertainty assessment and comparison of different dose algorithms used to evaluate a two element LiF:Mg,Ti TL personal dosemeter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stadtmann, H.; Hranitzky, F.C.

2008-01-01

This paper presents the results of an uncertainty assessment and comparison study of different dose algorithms used for evaluating our routine two element TL whole body dosemeter. Due to the photon energy response of the two different filtered LiF:Mg,Ti detector elements the application of dose algorithms is necessary to assess the relevant photon doses over the rated energy range with an acceptable energy response. Three dose algorithms are designed to calculate the dose for the different dose equivalent quantities, i.e. personal dose equivalent H p (10) and H p (0.07) and photon dose equivalent H x used for personal monitoring before introducing personal dose equivalent. Based on experimental results both for free in air calibration as well as calibration on the ISO water slab phantom (type test data) a detailed uncertainty analysis war performed by means of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The uncertainty contribution of the individual detector element signals was taken into special consideration. (author)

Uncertainties in individual doses in a case-control study of thyroid cancer after the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drozdovitch, V.; Maceika, E.; Khrouch, V.; Zvonova, I.; Vlasov, O.; Bouville, A.; Cardis, E.

2007-01-01

Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and un-shared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) un-shared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7. (authors)

Managing Uncertainty for an Integrated Fishery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MB Hasan

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates ways to deal with the uncertainties in fishing trawler scheduling and production planning in a quota-based integrated commercial fishery. A commercial fishery faces uncertainty mainly from variation in catch rate, which may be due to weather, and other environmental factors. The firm tries to manage this uncertainty through planning co-ordination of fishing trawler scheduling, catch quota, processing and labour allocation, and inventory control. Scheduling must necessarily be done over some finite planning horizon, and the trawler schedule itself introduces man-made variability, which in turn induces inventory in the processing plant. This induced inventory must be managed, complicated by the inability to plan easily beyond the current planning horizon. We develop a surprisingly simple innovation in inventory, which we have not seen in other papers on production management, which of requiring beginning inventory to equal ending inventory. This tool gives management a way to calculate a profit-maximizing safety stock that counter-acts the man-made variability due to the trawler scheduling. We found that the variability of catch rate had virtually no effects on the profitability with inventory. We report numerical results for several planning horizon models, based on data for a major New Zealand fishery.

Optimizing integrated airport surface and terminal airspace operations under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Bosson, Christabelle S.

In airports and surrounding terminal airspaces, the integration of surface, arrival and departure scheduling and routing have the potential to improve the operations efficiency. Moreover, because both the airport surface and the terminal airspace are often altered by random perturbations, the consideration of uncertainty in flight schedules is crucial to improve the design of robust flight schedules. Previous research mainly focused on independently solving arrival scheduling problems, departure scheduling problems and surface management scheduling problems and most of the developed models are deterministic. This dissertation presents an alternate method to model the integrated operations by using a machine job-shop scheduling formulation. A multistage stochastic programming approach is chosen to formulate the problem in the presence of uncertainty and candidate solutions are obtained by solving sample average approximation problems with finite sample size. The developed mixed-integer-linear-programming algorithm-based scheduler is capable of computing optimal aircraft schedules and routings that reflect the integration of air and ground operations. The assembled methodology is applied to a Los Angeles case study. To show the benefits of integrated operations over First-Come-First-Served, a preliminary proof-of-concept is conducted for a set of fourteen aircraft evolving under deterministic conditions in a model of the Los Angeles International Airport surface and surrounding terminal areas. Using historical data, a representative 30-minute traffic schedule and aircraft mix scenario is constructed. The results of the Los Angeles application show that the integration of air and ground operations and the use of a time-based separation strategy enable both significant surface and air time savings. The solution computed by the optimization provides a more efficient routing and scheduling than the First-Come-First-Served solution. Additionally, a data driven analysis is

An Integrated Approach for Characterization of Uncertainty in Complex Best Estimate Safety Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pourgol-Mohamad, Mohammad; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali

2013-01-01

This paper discusses an approach called Integrated Methodology for Thermal-Hydraulics Uncertainty Analysis (IMTHUA) to characterize and integrate a wide range of uncertainties associated with the best estimate models and complex system codes used for nuclear power plant safety analyses. Examples of applications include complex thermal hydraulic and fire analysis codes. In identifying and assessing uncertainties, the proposed methodology treats the complex code as a 'white box', thus explicitly treating internal sub-model uncertainties in addition to the uncertainties related to the inputs to the code. The methodology accounts for uncertainties related to experimental data used to develop such sub-models, and efficiently propagates all uncertainties during best estimate calculations. Uncertainties are formally analyzed and probabilistically treated using a Bayesian inference framework. This comprehensive approach presents the results in a form usable in most other safety analyses such as the probabilistic safety assessment. The code output results are further updated through additional Bayesian inference using any available experimental data, for example from thermal hydraulic integral test facilities. The approach includes provisions to account for uncertainties associated with user-specified options, for example for choices among alternative sub-models, or among several different correlations. Complex time-dependent best-estimate calculations are computationally intense. The paper presents approaches to minimize computational intensity during the uncertainty propagation. Finally, the paper will report effectiveness and practicality of the methodology with two applications to a complex thermal-hydraulics system code as well as a complex fire simulation code. In case of multiple alternative models, several techniques, including dynamic model switching, user-controlled model selection, and model mixing, are discussed. (authors)

Evaluation of the uncertainties in the TLD radiosurgery postal dose system

Science.gov (United States)

Campos, L. T.; Leite, S. P.; de Almeida, C. E. V.; Magalhães, L. A. G.

2018-03-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery is a single-fraction radiation therapy procedure for treating intracranial lesions using a stereotactic apparatus and multiple narrow beams delivered through noncoplanar isocentric arcs. To guarantee a high quality standard, a comprehensive Quality Assurance programme is extremely important to ensure that the measured dose is consistent with the tolerance considered to improve treatment quality. The Radiological Science Laboratory operates a postal audit programme in SRT and SRS. The purpose of the programme is to verify the target localization accuracy in known geometry and the dosimetric conditions of the TPS. The programme works in such a way those thermoluminescence dosimeters, consisting of LiF chips, are sent to the centre where they are to be irradiated to a certain dose. The TLD are then returned, where they are evaluated and the absorbed dose is obtained from TLDs readings. The aim of the present work is estimate the uncertainties in the process of dose determination, using experimental data.

MODARIA WG5: Towards a practical guidance for including uncertainties in the results of dose assessment of routine releases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mora, Juan C. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas - CIEMAT (Spain); Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA (Austria); Al Neaimi, Ahmed [Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation - ENEC (United Arab Emirates); Blixt Buhr, Anna Ma [Vattenfall AB (Sweden); Bonchuk, Iurii [Radiation Protection Institute - RPI (Ukraine); Chouhan, Sohan [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited - AECL (Canada); Chyly, Pavol [SE-VYZ (Slovakia); Curti, Adriana R. [Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear - ARN (Argentina); Da Costa, Dejanira [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria - IRD (Brazil); Duran, Juraj [VUJE Inc (Slovakia); Galeriu, Dan [Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering - IFIN-HH (Romania); Haegg, Ann- Christin; Lager, Charlotte [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority - SSM (Sweden); Heling, Rudie [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group - NRG (Netherlands); Ivanis, Goran; Shen, Jige [Ecometrix Incorporated (Canada); Iosjpe, Mikhail [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority - NRPA (Norway); Krajewski, Pawel M. [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection - CLOR (Poland); Marang, Laura; Vermorel, Fabien [Electricite de France - EdF (France); Mourlon, Christophe [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire - IRSN (France); Perez, Fabricio F. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre - SCK (Belgium); Woodruffe, Andrew [Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation - FANR (United Arab Emirates); Zorko, Benjamin [Jozef Stefan Institute (Slovenia)

2014-07-01

MODARIA (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) project was launched in 2012 with the aim of improving the capabilities in radiation dose assessment by means of acquisition of improved data for model testing, model testing and comparison, reaching consensus on modelling philosophies, approaches and parameter values, development of improved methods and exchange of information. The project focuses on areas where uncertainties remain in the predictive capability of environmental models, emphasizing in reducing associated uncertainties or developing new approaches to strengthen the evaluation of the radiological impact. Within MODARIA, four main areas were defined, one of them devoted to Uncertainty and Variability. In this area four working groups were included, Working Group 5 dealing with the 'uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides'. Whether doses are estimated by using measurement data, by applying models, or through a combination of measurements and calculations, the variability and uncertainty contribute to a distribution of possible values. The degree of variability and uncertainty is represented by the shape and extent of that distribution. The main objective of WG5 is to explore how to consider uncertainties and variabilities in the results of assessment of doses in planned situations for controlling the impact of routine releases from radioactive and nuclear installations to the environment. The final aim is to produce guidance for the calculation of uncertainties in these exposure situations and for the presentation of such results to the different stakeholders. To achieve that objective the main tasks identified were: to find tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments in routine radioactive discharges, to define scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability of parameters is available

Uncertainties in contamination level and in doses after exposure to actinide aerosols

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fritsch, P.; Berard, P.; Frank, D.; Ansoborlo, E.; Fottorino, R.; Challeton-Devatayre, C.; Miele, A.; Blanchin, N.; Raynaud, P.; Piechowski, J. [CEA Cadarache, MEDOR, A. Miele, SST, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France)

2006-07-01

A task group named 'Methodes Dosimetriques de Reference' (M.E.D.O.R.) has been created recently to provide didactic tools for dose estimation from bioassay data obtained after occupational exposure. This task group is focused on 1) application limits of the available models, 2) uncertainties in radionuclide biokinetics and in doses, and 3) identification of the main parameters involved in these uncertainties. First, uncertainties in biokinetics of {sup 239}Pu (thoracic retention and excretion) and in doses have been estimated after acute inhalation of PuO{sub 2} (A.M.A.D. 5{mu}m, type S). This was performed either when the activity of the inhaled aerosol (case 1) or the thoracic retention on day 1 (case 2) could be measured. Variability assigned to the different parameters of the ICRP models was that previously reported. After simulation, a lognormal distribution of the results was observed so that uncertainties can be expressed as 95 % Confidence interval Ratio (C.R.={sigma}{sub g}{sup 4}). In case 1, most of the uncertainties were due to aerosol deposition and remained nearly constant for 1000 days after exposure (thoracic, faecal and urinary C.R. of 8, 6 -30 and 10, respectively). In contrast, in case 2, thoracic C.R. gradually increased from 1.5 to 5, faecal C.R. was similar to that of case 1 up to 20 days and then sharply decreased to about 3, whereas C.R. of urinary excretion remained similar to case 1 throughout the 1000 day period. Uncertainties in D.P.U.I. were much higher in case 1 (C.R.=7) than in case 2 (C.R.=2) and were both mainly due to the uncertainties in thoracic equivalent doses. Second, different bioassay data were analysed to verify if the observed results were within the C.R. previously calculated for case 2. Two cases are provided as examples which appeared out of this range. The first one corresponds to an acute exposure to PuO{sub 2} aerosols which was followed for about 20 years. Fit analysis has shown a low value of the slow

Determination of tolerance dose uncertainties and optimal design of dose response experiments with small animal numbers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karger, C.P.; Hartmann, G.H.

2001-01-01

Background: Dose response experiments aim to determine the complication probability as a function of dose. Adjusting the parameters of the frequently used dose response model P(D)=1/[1+(D 50 /D) k ] to the experimental data, 2 intuitive quantities are obtained: The tolerance dose D 50 and the slope parameter k. For mathematical reasons, however, standard statistic software uses a different set of parameters. Therefore, the resulting fit parameters of the statistic software as well as their standard errors have to be transformed to obtain D 50 and k as well as their standard errors. Material and Methods: The influence of the number of dose levels on the uncertainty of the fit parameters is studied by a simulation for a fixed number of animals. For experiments with small animal numbers, statistical artifacts may prevent the determination of the standard errors of the fit parameters. Consequences on the design of dose response experiments are investigated. Results: Explicit formulas are presented, which allow to calculate the parameters D 50 and k as well as their standard errors from the output of standard statistic software. The simulation shows, that the standard errors of the resulting parameters are independent of the number of dose levels, as long as the total number of animals involved in the experiment, remains constant. Conclusion: Statistical artifacts in experiments containing small animal numbers may be prevented by an adequate design of the experiment. For this, it is suggested to select a higher number of dose levels, rather than using a higher number of animals per dose level. (orig.) [de

Dose uncertainties for large solar particle events: Input spectra variability and human geometry approximations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Zapp, E. Neal

1999-01-01

The true uncertainties in estimates of body organ absorbed dose and dose equivalent, from exposures of interplanetary astronauts to large solar particle events (SPEs), are essentially unknown. Variations in models used to parameterize SPE proton spectra for input into space radiation transport and shielding computer codes can result in uncertainty about the reliability of dose predictions for these events. Also, different radiation transport codes and their input databases can yield significant differences in dose predictions, even for the same input spectra. Different results may also be obtained for the same input spectra and transport codes if different spacecraft and body self-shielding distributions are assumed. Heretofore there have been no systematic investigations of the variations in dose and dose equivalent resulting from these assumptions and models. In this work we present a study of the variability in predictions of organ dose and dose equivalent arising from the use of different parameters to represent the same incident SPE proton data and from the use of equivalent sphere approximations to represent human body geometry. The study uses the BRYNTRN space radiation transport code to calculate dose and dose equivalent for the skin, ocular lens and bone marrow using the October 1989 SPE as a model event. Comparisons of organ dose and dose equivalent, obtained with a realistic human geometry model and with the oft-used equivalent sphere approximation, are also made. It is demonstrated that variations of 30-40% in organ dose and dose equivalent are obtained for slight variations in spectral fitting parameters obtained when various data points are included or excluded from the fitting procedure. It is further demonstrated that extrapolating spectra from low energy (≤30 MeV) proton fluence measurements, rather than using fluence data extending out to 100 MeV results in dose and dose equivalent predictions that are underestimated by factors as large as 2

UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROCESS INTEGRATION FOR THE BIOREFINERIES DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meilyn González Cortés

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents how the design approaches with high level of flexibility can reduce the additional costs of the strategies that apply overdesign factors to consider parameters with uncertainty that impact on the economic feasibility of a project. The elements with associate uncertainties and that are important in the configurations of the process integration under a biorefinery scheme are: raw material, raw material technologies of conversion, and variety of products that can be obtained. From the analysis it is obtained that in the raw materials and products with potentialities in a biorefinery scheme, there are external uncertainties such as availability, demands and prices in the market. Those external uncertainties can determine their impact on the biorefinery and also in the product prices we can find minimum and maximum limits that can be identified in intervals which should be considered for the project economic evaluation and the sensibility analysis due to varied conditions.

Biological dosimetry - a Bayesian approach in the presentation of the uncertainty of the estimated dose in cases of exposure to low dose radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Giorgio, Marina; Zaretzky, A.

2010-01-01

Biodosimetry laboratory experience has shown that there are limitations in the existing statistical methodology. Statistical difficulties generally occur due to the low number of aberrations leading to large uncertainties for dose estimation. Some problems derived from limitations of the classical statistical methodology, which requires that chromosome aberration yields be considered as something fixed and consequently provides a deterministic dose estimation and associated confidence limits. On the other hand, recipients of biological dosimetry reports, including medical doctors, regulators and the patients themselves may have a limited comprehension of statistics and of informed reports. Thus, the objective of the present paper is to use a Bayesian approach to present the uncertainty on the estimated dose to which a person could be exposed, in the case of low dose (occupational doses) radiation exposure. Such methodology will allow the biodosimetrists to adopt a probabilistic approach for the cytogenetic data analysis. At present, classical statistics allows to produce a confidence interval to report such dose, with a lower limit that could not detach from zero. In this situation it becomes difficult to make decisions as they could impact on the labor activities of the worker if an exposure exceeding the occupational dose limits is inferred. The proposed Bayesian approach is applied to occupational exposure scenario to contribute to take the appropriate radiation protection measures. (authors) [es

Accounting for shared and unshared dosimetric uncertainties in the dose response for ultrasound-detected thyroid nodules after exposure to radioactive fallout.

Science.gov (United States)

Land, Charles E; Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Bouville, André; Beck, Harold; Luckyanov, Nicholas; Weinstock, Robert M; Simon, Steven L

2015-02-01

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point "best estimates". In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population

Integration of inaccurate data into model building and uncertainty assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleou, Thierry

1998-12-31

Model building can be seen as integrating numerous measurements and mapping through data points considered as exact. As the exact data set is usually sparse, using additional non-exact data improves the modelling and reduces the uncertainties. Several examples of non-exact data are discussed and a methodology to honor them in a single pass, along with the exact data is presented. This automatic procedure is valid for both ``base case`` model building and stochastic simulations for uncertainty analysis. 5 refs., 3 figs.

Tolerance of uncertainty: Conceptual analysis, integrative model, and implications for healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

Hillen, Marij A; Gutheil, Caitlin M; Strout, Tania D; Smets, Ellen M A; Han, Paul K J

2017-05-01

Uncertainty tolerance (UT) is an important, well-studied phenomenon in health care and many other important domains of life, yet its conceptualization and measurement by researchers in various disciplines have varied substantially and its essential nature remains unclear. The objectives of this study were to: 1) analyze the meaning and logical coherence of UT as conceptualized by developers of UT measures, and 2) develop an integrative conceptual model to guide future empirical research regarding the nature, causes, and effects of UT. A narrative review and conceptual analysis of 18 existing measures of Uncertainty and Ambiguity Tolerance was conducted, focusing on how measure developers in various fields have defined both the "uncertainty" and "tolerance" components of UT-both explicitly through their writings and implicitly through the items constituting their measures. Both explicit and implicit conceptual definitions of uncertainty and tolerance vary substantially and are often poorly and inconsistently specified. A logically coherent, unified understanding or theoretical model of UT is lacking. To address these gaps, we propose a new integrative definition and multidimensional conceptual model that construes UT as the set of negative and positive psychological responses-cognitive, emotional, and behavioral-provoked by the conscious awareness of ignorance about particular aspects of the world. This model synthesizes insights from various disciplines and provides an organizing framework for future research. We discuss how this model can facilitate further empirical and theoretical research to better measure and understand the nature, determinants, and outcomes of UT in health care and other domains of life. Uncertainty tolerance is an important and complex phenomenon requiring more precise and consistent definition. An integrative definition and conceptual model, intended as a tentative and flexible point of departure for future research, adds needed breadth

Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

1999-01-01

This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases

Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer D, Philip; Gee W, Glendon

2000-01-01

This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases

Accuracy, reproducibility, and uncertainty analysis of thyroid-probe-based activity measurements for determination of dose calibrator settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Esquinas, Pedro L; Tanguay, Jesse; Gonzalez, Marjorie; Vuckovic, Milan; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Cristina; Häfeli, Urs O; Celler, Anna

2016-12-01

In the nuclear medicine department, the activity of radiopharmaceuticals is measured using dose calibrators (DCs) prior to patient injection. The DC consists of an ionization chamber that measures current generated by ionizing radiation (emitted from the radiotracer). In order to obtain an activity reading, the current is converted into units of activity by applying an appropriate calibration factor (also referred to as DC dial setting). Accurate determination of DC dial settings is crucial to ensure that patients receive the appropriate dose in diagnostic scans or radionuclide therapies. The goals of this study were (1) to describe a practical method to experimentally determine dose calibrator settings using a thyroid-probe (TP) and (2) to investigate the accuracy, reproducibility, and uncertainties of the method. As an illustration, the TP method was applied to determine 188 Re dial settings for two dose calibrator models: Atomlab 100plus and Capintec CRC-55tR. Using the TP to determine dose calibrator settings involved three measurements. First, the energy-dependent efficiency of the TP was determined from energy spectra measurements of two calibration sources ( 152 Eu and 22 Na). Second, the gamma emissions from the investigated isotope ( 188 Re) were measured using the TP and its activity was determined using γ-ray spectroscopy methods. Ambient background, scatter, and source-geometry corrections were applied during the efficiency and activity determination steps. Third, the TP-based 188 Re activity was used to determine the dose calibrator settings following the calibration curve method [B. E. Zimmerman et al., J. Nucl. Med. 40, 1508-1516 (1999)]. The interobserver reproducibility of TP measurements was determined by the coefficient of variation (COV) and uncertainties associated to each step of the measuring process were estimated. The accuracy of activity measurements using the proposed method was evaluated by comparing the TP activity estimates of 99m Tc

Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties.

Science.gov (United States)

Puncher, M; Zhang, W; Harrison, J D; Wakeford, R

2017-06-26

Assessments of risk to a specific population group resulting from internal exposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of the appropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dose coefficients used as a radiation protection device for the specified exposure pathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the associated risk is important for informing judgments on reliability; a derived uncertainty factor, UF, is an estimate of the 95% probable geometric difference between the best risk estimate and the nominal risk and is a useful tool for making this assessment. This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis to quantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to radioiodine by members of the public, specifically 1, 10 and 20-year old females from the population of England and Wales. Best estimates of thyroid cancer incidence risk (lifetime attributable risk) are calculated for ingestion or inhalation of 129 I and 131 I, accounting for uncertainties in biokinetic model and cancer risk model parameter values. These estimates are compared with the equivalent ICRP derived nominal age-, sex- and population-averaged estimates of excess thyroid cancer incidence to obtain UFs. Derived UF values for ingestion or inhalation of 131 I for 1 year, 10-year and 20-year olds are around 28, 12 and 6, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 103 nominal values, and 9, 7 and 14, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 60 values. Broadly similar results were obtained for 129 I. The uncertainties on risk estimates are largely determined by uncertainties on risk model parameters rather than uncertainties on biokinetic model parameters. An examination of the sensitivity of the results to the risk models and populations used in the calculations show variations in the central estimates of risk of a factor of around 2-3. It is assumed that the direct proportionality of excess thyroid cancer

Geostatistical integration and uncertainty in pollutant concentration surface under preferential sampling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Grisotto

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper the focus is on environmental statistics, with the aim of estimating the concentration surface and related uncertainty of an air pollutant. We used air quality data recorded by a network of monitoring stations within a Bayesian framework to overcome difficulties in accounting for prediction uncertainty and to integrate information provided by deterministic models based on emissions meteorology and chemico-physical characteristics of the atmosphere. Several authors have proposed such integration, but all the proposed approaches rely on representativeness and completeness of existing air pollution monitoring networks. We considered the situation in which the spatial process of interest and the sampling locations are not independent. This is known in the literature as the preferential sampling problem, which if ignored in the analysis, can bias geostatistical inferences. We developed a Bayesian geostatistical model to account for preferential sampling with the main interest in statistical integration and uncertainty. We used PM10 data arising from the air quality network of the Environmental Protection Agency of Lombardy Region (Italy and numerical outputs from the deterministic model. We specified an inhomogeneous Poisson process for the sampling locations intensities and a shared spatial random component model for the dependence between the spatial location of monitors and the pollution surface. We found greater predicted standard deviation differences in areas not properly covered by the air quality network. In conclusion, in this context inferences on prediction uncertainty may be misleading when geostatistical modelling does not take into account preferential sampling.

Reduced dose uncertainty in MRI-based polymer gel dosimetry using parallel RF transmission with multiple RF sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sang-Young Kim; Jung-Hoon Lee; Jin-Young Jung; Do-Wan Lee; Seu-Ran Lee; Bo-Young Choe; Hyeon-Man Baek; Korea University of Science and Technology, Daejeon; Dae-Hyun Kim; Jung-Whan Min; Ji-Yeon Park

2014-01-01

In this work, we present the feasibility of using a parallel RF transmit with multiple RF sources imaging method (MultiTransmit imaging) in polymer gel dosimetry. Image quality and B 1 field homogeneity was statistically better in the MultiTransmit imaging method than in conventional single source RF transmission imaging method. In particular, the standard uncertainty of R 2 was lower on the MultiTransmit images than on the conventional images. Furthermore, the MultiTransmit measurement showed improved dose resolution. Improved image quality and B 1 homogeneity results in reduced dose uncertainty, thereby suggesting the feasibility of MultiTransmit MR imaging in gel dosimetry. (author)

UNCERTAINTY ON RADIATION DOSES ESTIMATED BY BIOLOGICAL AND RETROSPECTIVE PHYSICAL METHODS.

Science.gov (United States)

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Samaga, Daniel; Della Monaca, Sara; Marrale, Maurizio; Bassinet, Celine; Burbidge, Christopher I; Correcher, Virgilio; Discher, Michael; Eakins, Jon; Fattibene, Paola; Güçlü, Inci; Higueras, Manuel; Lund, Eva; Maltar-Strmecki, Nadica; McKeever, Stephen; Rääf, Christopher L; Sholom, Sergey; Veronese, Ivan; Wieser, Albrecht; Woda, Clemens; Trompier, Francois

2018-03-01

Biological and physical retrospective dosimetry are recognised as key techniques to provide individual estimates of dose following unplanned exposures to ionising radiation. Whilst there has been a relatively large amount of recent development in the biological and physical procedures, development of statistical analysis techniques has failed to keep pace. The aim of this paper is to review the current state of the art in uncertainty analysis techniques across the 'EURADOS Working Group 10-Retrospective dosimetry' members, to give concrete examples of implementation of the techniques recommended in the international standards, and to further promote the use of Monte Carlo techniques to support characterisation of uncertainties. It is concluded that sufficient techniques are available and in use by most laboratories for acute, whole body exposures to highly penetrating radiation, but further work will be required to ensure that statistical analysis is always wholly sufficient for the more complex exposure scenarios.

Harnessing the theoretical foundations of the exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models to quantify parameter uncertainty using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Philip J; Pintar, Katarina D M; Fazil, Aamir M; Topp, Edward

2013-09-01

Dose-response models are the essential link between exposure assessment and computed risk values in quantitative microbial risk assessment, yet the uncertainty that is inherent to computed risks because the dose-response model parameters are estimated using limited epidemiological data is rarely quantified. Second-order risk characterization approaches incorporating uncertainty in dose-response model parameters can provide more complete information to decisionmakers by separating variability and uncertainty to quantify the uncertainty in computed risks. Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop procedures to sample from posterior distributions describing uncertainty in the parameters of exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models using Bayes's theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (in OpenBUGS). The theoretical origins of the beta-Poisson dose-response model are used to identify a decomposed version of the model that enables Bayesian analysis without the need to evaluate Kummer confluent hypergeometric functions. Herein, it is also established that the beta distribution in the beta-Poisson dose-response model cannot address variation among individual pathogens, criteria to validate use of the conventional approximation to the beta-Poisson model are proposed, and simple algorithms to evaluate actual beta-Poisson probabilities of infection are investigated. The developed MCMC procedures are applied to analysis of a case study data set, and it is demonstrated that an important region of the posterior distribution of the beta-Poisson dose-response model parameters is attributable to the absence of low-dose data. This region includes beta-Poisson models for which the conventional approximation is especially invalid and in which many beta distributions have an extreme shape with questionable plausibility. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

2012-01-01

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

Model Uncertainty via the Integration of Hormesis and LNT as the Default in Cancer Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-01-01

On June 23, 2015, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a formal notice in the Federal Register that it would consider whether "it should amend its 'Standards for Protection Against Radiation' regulations from the linear non-threshold (LNT) model of radiation protection to the hormesis model." The present commentary supports this recommendation based on the (1) flawed and deceptive history of the adoption of LNT by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1956; (2) the documented capacity of hormesis to make more accurate predictions of biological responses for diverse biological end points in the low-dose zone; (3) the occurrence of extensive hormetic data from the peer-reviewed biomedical literature that revealed hormetic responses are highly generalizable, being independent of biological model, end point measured, inducing agent, level of biological organization, and mechanism; and (4) the integration of hormesis and LNT models via a model uncertainty methodology that optimizes public health responses at 10(-4). Thus, both LNT and hormesis can be integratively used for risk assessment purposes, and this integration defines the so-called "regulatory sweet spot."

Proof of concept and dose estimation with binary responses under model uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Klingenberg, B

2009-01-30

This article suggests a unified framework for testing Proof of Concept (PoC) and estimating a target dose for the benefit of a more comprehensive, robust and powerful analysis in phase II or similar clinical trials. From a pre-specified set of candidate models, we choose the ones that best describe the observed dose-response. To decide which models, if any, significantly pick up a dose effect, we construct the permutation distribution of the minimum P-value over the candidate set. This allows us to find critical values and multiplicity adjusted P-values that control the familywise error rate of declaring any spurious effect in the candidate set as significant. Model averaging is then used to estimate a target dose. Popular single or multiple contrast tests for PoC, such as the Cochran-Armitage, Dunnett or Williams tests, are only optimal for specific dose-response shapes and do not provide target dose estimates with confidence limits. A thorough evaluation and comparison of our approach to these tests reveal that its power is as good or better in detecting a dose-response under various shapes with many more additional benefits: It incorporates model uncertainty in PoC decisions and target dose estimation, yields confidence intervals for target dose estimates and extends to more complicated data structures. We illustrate our method with the analysis of a Phase II clinical trial. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SU-F-T-14: Dosimetric Impacts of Various Uncertainties in Cervical Cancer HDR Brachytherapy: Are Conventional Point Doses Good Surrogates for 3D Dosimetry?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liang, X; Li, Z [University of Florida Health Proton Therapy Institute, Jacksonville, FL (United States); Zheng, D [University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE (United States); Zhang, X; Narayanasamy, G; Morrill, S; Penagaricano, J; Paudel, N [University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, AR (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: In the context of evaluating dosimetric impacts of a variety of uncertainties involved in HDR Tandem-and-Ovoid treatment, to study the correlations between conventional point doses and 3D volumetric doses. Methods: For 5 cervical cancer patients treated with HDR T&O, 150 plans were retrospectively created to study dosimetric impacts of the following uncertainties: (1) inter-fractional applicator displacement between two treatment fractions within a single insertion by applying Fraction#1 plan to Fraction#2 CT; (2) positional dwell error simulated from −5mm to 5mm in 1mm steps; (3) simulated temporal dwell error of 0.05s, 0.1s, 0.5s, and 1s. The original plans were based on point dose prescription, from which the volume covered by the prescription dose was generated as the pseudo target volume to study the 3D target dose effect. OARs were contoured. The point and volumetric dose errors were calculated by taking the differences between original and simulated plans. The correlations between the point and volumetric dose errors were analyzed. Results: For the most clinically relevant positional dwell uncertainty of 1mm, temporal uncertainty of 0.05s, and inter-fractional applicator displacement within the same insertion, the mean target D90 and V100 deviation were within 1%. Among these uncertainties, the applicator displacement showed the largest potential target coverage impact (2.6% on D90) as well as the OAR dose impact (2.5% and 3.4% on bladder D2cc and rectum D2cc). The Spearman correlation analysis shows a correlation coefficient of 0.43 with a p-value of 0.11 between target D90 coverage and H point dose. Conclusion: With the most clinically relevant positional and temporal dwell uncertainties and patient interfractional applicator displacement within the same insertion, the dose error is within clinical acceptable range. The lack of correlation between H point and 3D volumetric dose errors is a motivator for the use of 3D treatment planning in

Propagation of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in Integral Measurements by Monte-Carlo Calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noguere, G.; Bernard, D.; De Saint-Jean, C. [CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France)

2006-07-01

Full text of the publication follows: The generation of Multi-group cross sections together with relevant uncertainties is fundamental to assess the quality of integral data. The key information that are needed to propagate the microscopic experimental uncertainties to macroscopic reactor calculations are (1) the experimental covariance matrices, (2) the correlations between the parameters of the model and (3) the covariance matrices for the multi-group cross sections. The propagation of microscopic errors by Monte-Carlo technique was applied to determine the accuracy of the integral trends provided by the OSMOSE experiment carried out in the MINERVE reactor of the CEA Cadarache. The technique consists in coupling resonance shape analysis and deterministic codes. The integral trend and its accuracy obtained on the {sup 237}Np(n,{gamma}) reaction will be presented. (author)

Influence of resonance parameters' correlations on the resonance integral uncertainty; 55Mn case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zerovnik, Gasper; Trkov, Andrej; Capote, Roberto; Rochman, Dimitri

2011-01-01

For nuclides with a large number of resonances the covariance matrix of resonance parameters can become very large and expensive to process in terms of the computation time. By converting covariance matrix of resonance parameters into covariance matrices of background cross-section in a more or less coarse group structure a considerable amount of computer time and memory can be saved. The question is how important is the information that is discarded in the process. First, the uncertainty of the 55 Mn resonance integral was estimated in narrow resonance approximation for different levels of self-shielding using Bondarenko method by random sampling of resonance parameters according to their covariance matrices from two different 55 Mn evaluations: one from Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG (with large uncertainties but no correlations between resonances), the other from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (with smaller uncertainties but full covariance matrix). We have found out that if all (or at least significant part of the) resonance parameters are correlated, the resonance integral uncertainty greatly depends on the level of self-shielding. Second, it was shown that the commonly used 640-group SAND-II representation cannot describe the increase of the resonance integral uncertainty. A much finer energy mesh for the background covariance matrix would have to be used to take the resonance structure into account explicitly, but then the objective of a more compact data representation is lost.

Integral dose and evaluation of irradiated tissue volume

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sivachenko, T.P.; Kalina, V.K.; Belous, A.K.; Gaevskij, V.I.

1984-01-01

Two parameters having potentialities of radiotherapy planning improvement are under consideration. One of these two parameters in an integral dose. An efficiency of application of special tables for integral dose estimation is noted. These tables were developed by the Kiev Physician Improvement Institute and the Cybernetics Institute of the Ukrainian SSR Academy of Science. The meaning of the term of ''irradiated tissue volume'' is specified, and the method of calculation of the irradiated tissue effective mass is considered. It is possible to evaluate with higher accuracy tolerance doses taking into account the irradiated mass

An approach to routine individual internal dose monitoring at the object 'Shelter' personnel considering uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mel'nichuk, D.V.; Bondarenko, O.O.; Medvedjev, S.Yu.

2002-01-01

An approach to organisation of routine individual internal dose monitoring of the personnel of the Object 'Shelter' is presented in the work, that considers individualised uncertainties. In this aspect two methods of effective dose assessment based on bioassay are considered in the work: (1) traditional indirect method at which application results of workplace monitoring are not taken into account, and (2) a combined method in which both results of bioassay measurements and workplace monitoring are considered

SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code. [In FORTRAN for CDC-7600, IBM 360

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gerstl, S.A.W.

1980-01-01

SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE.

Determination of uncertainties in the calculation of dose rates at transport and storage casks; Unsicherheiten bei der Berechnung von Dosisleistungen an Transport- und Lagerbehaeltern

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schloemer, Luc Laurent Alexander

2014-12-17

The compliance with the dose rate limits for transport and storage casks (TLB) for spent nuclear fuel from pressurised water reactors can be proved by calculation. This includes the determination of the radioactive sources and the shielding-capability of the cask. In this thesis the entire computational chain, which extends from the determination of the source terms to the final Monte-Carlo-transport-calculation is analysed and the arising uncertainties are quantified not only by benchmarks but also by variational calculi. The background of these analyses is that the comparison with measured dose rates at different TLBs shows an overestimation by the values calculated. Regarding the studies performed, the overestimation can be mainly explained by the detector characteristics for the measurement of the neutron dose rate and additionally in case of the gamma dose rates by the energy group structure, which the calculation is based on. It turns out that the consideration of the uncertainties occurring along the computational chain can lead to even greater overestimation. Concerning the dose rate calculation at cask loadings with spent uranium fuel assemblies an uncertainty of (({sup +21}{sub -28}) ±2) % (rel.) for the total gamma dose rate and of ({sup +28±23}{sub -55±4}) % (rel.) for the total neutron dose rate are estimated. For mixed-loadings with spent uranium and MOX fuel assemblies an uncertainty of ({sup +24±3}{sub -27±2}) % (rel.) for the total gamma dose rate and of ({sup +28±23}{sub -55±4}) % (rel.) for the total neutron dose rate are quantified. The results show that the computational chain has not to be modified, because the calculations performed lead to conservative dose rate predictions, even if high uncertainties at neutron dose rate measurements arise. Thus at first the uncertainties of the neutron dose rate measurement have to be decreased to enable a reduction of the overestimation of the calculated dose rate afterwards. In the present thesis

Integral dose investigation of non-coplanar treatment beam geometries in radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, Dan; Dong, Peng; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke, E-mail: ksheng@mednet.ucla.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States); Long, Troy; Romeijn, Edwin [Department of Industrial and Operations, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States)

2014-01-15

Purpose: Automated planning and delivery of non-coplanar plans such as 4π radiotherapy involving a large number of fields have been developed to take advantage of the newly available automated couch and gantry on C-arm gantry linacs. However, there is an increasing concern regarding the potential changes in the integral dose that needs to be investigated. Methods: A digital torso phantom and 22 lung and liver stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) patients were included in the study. The digital phantom was constructed as a water equivalent elliptical cylinder with a major axis length of 35.4 cm and minor axis of 23.6 cm. A 4.5 cm diameter target was positioned at varying depths along the major axis. Integral doses from intensity modulated, non-coplanar beams forming a conical pattern were compared against the equally spaced coplanar beam plans. Integral dose dependence on the phantom geometry and the beam number was also quantified. For the patient plans, the non-coplanar and coplanar beams and fluences were optimized using a column generation and pricing approach and compared against clinical VMAT plans using two full (lung) or partial coplanar arcs (liver) entering at the side proximal to the tumor. Both the average dose to the normal tissue volume and the total volumes receiving greater than 2 Gy (V2) and 5 Gy (V5) were evaluated and compared. Results: The ratio of integral dose from the non-coplanar and coplanar plans depended on the tumor depth for the phantom; for tumors shallower than 10 cm, the non-coplanar integral doses were lower than coplanar integral doses for non-coplanar angles less than 60°. Similar patterns were observed in the patient plans. The smallest non-coplanar integral doses were observed for tumor 6–8 cm deep. For the phantom, the integral dose was independent of the number of beams, consistent with the liver SBRT patients but the lung SBRT patients showed slight increase in the integral dose when more beams were used. Larger

Estimated of associated uncertainties of the linearity test of dose calibrators; Estimativa das incertezas associadas ao teste de linearidade de calibradores de dose

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sousa, Carlos H.S.; Peixoto, Jose G.P., E-mail: chenrique@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), RIo de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2013-07-01

Activimeters determine the activity of radioactive samples and them are validated by performance tests. This research determined the expanded uncertainties associated to the linearity test. Were used three dose calibrators and three sources of {sup 99}Tc{sup m} for testing using recommended protocol by the IAEA, which considered the decay of radioactive samples. The expanded uncertainties evaluated were not correlated with each other and their analysis considered a rectangular probability distribution. The results are also presented in graphical form by the function of normalized activity measured in terms of conventional true value. (author)

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

2016-01-01

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.

Internal dose assessments: Uncertainty studies and update of ideas guidelines and databases within CONRAD project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marsh, J. W.; Castellani, C. M.; Hurtgen, C.; Lopez, M. A.; Andrasi, A.; Bailey, M. R.; Birchall, A.; Blanchardon, E.; Desai, A. D.; Dorrian, M. D.; Doerfel, H.; Koukouliou, V.; Luciani, A.; Malatova, I.; Molokanov, A.; Puncher, M.; Vrba, T.

2008-01-01

The work of Task Group 5.1 (uncertainty studies and revision of IDEAS guidelines) and Task Group 5.5 (update of IDEAS databases) of the CONRAD project is described. Scattering factor (SF) values (i.e. measurement uncertainties) have been calculated for different radionuclides and types of monitoring data using real data contained in the IDEAS Internal Contamination Database. Based upon this work and other published values, default SF values are suggested. Uncertainty studies have been carried out using both a Bayesian approach as well as a frequentist (classical) approach. The IDEAS guidelines have been revised in areas relating to the evaluation of an effective AMAD, guidance is given on evaluating wound cases with the NCRP wound model and suggestions made on the number and type of measurements required for dose assessment. (authors)

SU-F-T-115: Uncertainty in the Esophagus Dose in Retrospective Epidemiological Study of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy Patients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mosher, E; Kim, S; Lee, C [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD (United States); Lee, C [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Pelletier, C; Jung, J [Department of Physics, East Carolina University Greenville, NC (United States); Jones, E [Radiology and Imaging Sciences Clinical Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Epidemiological studies of second cancer risks in breast cancer radiotherapy patients often use generic patient anatomy to reconstruct normal tissue doses when CT images of patients are not available. To evaluate the uncertainty involved in the dosimetry approach, we evaluated the esophagus dose in five sample patients by simulating breast cancer treatments. Methods: We obtained the diagnostic CT images of five anonymized adult female patients in different Body Mass Index (BMI) categories (16– 36kg/m2) from National Institutes of Health Clinical Center. We contoured the esophagus on the CT images and imported them into a Treatment Planning System (TPS) to create treatment plans and calculate esophagus doses. Esophagus dose was calculated once again via experimentally-validated Monte Carlo (MC) transport code, XVMC under the same geometries. We compared the esophagus doses from TPS and the MC method. We also investigated the degree of variation in the esophagus dose across the five patients and also the relationship between the patient characteristics and the esophagus doses. Results: Eclipse TPS using Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) significantly underestimates the esophagus dose in breast cancer radiotherapy compared to MC. In the worst case, the esophagus dose from AAA was only 40% of the MC dose. The Coefficient of Variation across the patients was 48%. We found that the maximum esophagus dose was up to 2.7 times greater than the minimum. We finally observed linear relationship (Dose = 0.0218 × BMI – 0.1, R2=0.54) between patient’s BMI and the esophagus doses. Conclusion: We quantified the degree of uncertainty in the esophagus dose in five sample breast radiotherapy patients. The results of the study underscore the importance of individualized dose reconstruction for the study cohort to avoid misclassification in the risk analysis of second cancer. We are currently extending the number of patients up to 30.

SU-F-T-115: Uncertainty in the Esophagus Dose in Retrospective Epidemiological Study of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy Patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosher, E; Kim, S; Lee, C; Lee, C; Pelletier, C; Jung, J; Jones, E

2016-01-01

Purpose: Epidemiological studies of second cancer risks in breast cancer radiotherapy patients often use generic patient anatomy to reconstruct normal tissue doses when CT images of patients are not available. To evaluate the uncertainty involved in the dosimetry approach, we evaluated the esophagus dose in five sample patients by simulating breast cancer treatments. Methods: We obtained the diagnostic CT images of five anonymized adult female patients in different Body Mass Index (BMI) categories (16– 36kg/m2) from National Institutes of Health Clinical Center. We contoured the esophagus on the CT images and imported them into a Treatment Planning System (TPS) to create treatment plans and calculate esophagus doses. Esophagus dose was calculated once again via experimentally-validated Monte Carlo (MC) transport code, XVMC under the same geometries. We compared the esophagus doses from TPS and the MC method. We also investigated the degree of variation in the esophagus dose across the five patients and also the relationship between the patient characteristics and the esophagus doses. Results: Eclipse TPS using Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) significantly underestimates the esophagus dose in breast cancer radiotherapy compared to MC. In the worst case, the esophagus dose from AAA was only 40% of the MC dose. The Coefficient of Variation across the patients was 48%. We found that the maximum esophagus dose was up to 2.7 times greater than the minimum. We finally observed linear relationship (Dose = 0.0218 × BMI – 0.1, R2=0.54) between patient’s BMI and the esophagus doses. Conclusion: We quantified the degree of uncertainty in the esophagus dose in five sample breast radiotherapy patients. The results of the study underscore the importance of individualized dose reconstruction for the study cohort to avoid misclassification in the risk analysis of second cancer. We are currently extending the number of patients up to 30.

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessments of GPS and GIS integrated applications for transportation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Sungchul; Vonderohe, Alan P

2014-02-10

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods are introduced, concerning the quality of spatial data as well as that of output information from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated applications for transportation. In the methods, an error model and an error propagation method form a basis for formulating characterization and propagation of uncertainties. They are developed in two distinct approaches: analytical and simulation. Thus, an initial evaluation is performed to compare and examine uncertainty estimations from the analytical and simulation approaches. The evaluation results show that estimated ranges of output information from the analytical and simulation approaches are compatible, but the simulation approach rather than the analytical approach is preferred for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, due to its flexibility and capability to realize positional errors in both input data. Therefore, in a case study, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based upon the simulation approach is conducted on a winter maintenance application. The sensitivity analysis is used to determine optimum input data qualities, and the uncertainty analysis is then applied to estimate overall qualities of output information from the application. The analysis results show that output information from the non-distance-based computation model is not sensitive to positional uncertainties in input data. However, for the distance-based computational model, output information has a different magnitude of uncertainties, depending on position uncertainties in input data.

Efficient uncertainty quantification in fully-integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, K. L.; Berg, S. J.; Davison, J. H.; Sudicky, E. A.; Forsyth, P. A.

2018-01-01

Although high performance computers and advanced numerical methods have made the application of fully-integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport models such as HydroGeoSphere common place, run times for large complex basin models can still be on the order of days to weeks, thus, limiting the usefulness of traditional workhorse algorithms for uncertainty quantification (UQ) such as Latin Hypercube simulation (LHS) or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), which generally require thousands of simulations to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. In this paper we investigate non-intrusive polynomial chaos for uncertainty quantification, which in contrast to random sampling methods (e.g., LHS and MCS), represents a model response of interest as a weighted sum of polynomials over the random inputs. Once a chaos expansion has been constructed, approximating the mean, covariance, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, and other common statistics as well as local and global sensitivity measures is straightforward and computationally inexpensive, thus making PCE an attractive UQ method for hydrologic models with long run times. Our polynomial chaos implementation was validated through comparison with analytical solutions as well as solutions obtained via LHS for simple numerical problems. It was then used to quantify parametric uncertainty in a series of numerical problems with increasing complexity, including a two-dimensional fully-saturated, steady flow and transient transport problem with six uncertain parameters and one quantity of interest; a one-dimensional variably-saturated column test involving transient flow and transport, four uncertain parameters, and two quantities of interest at 101 spatial locations and five different times each (1010 total); and a three-dimensional fully-integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport problem for a small test catchment involving seven uncertain parameters and three quantities of interest at

Application of RELAP/SCDAPSIM with integrated uncertainty options to research reactor systems thermal hydraulic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allison, C.M.; Hohorst, J.K.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.

2010-01-01

The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of the international SCDAP Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with advanced programming and numerical techniques and other SDTP-member modeling/user options. One such member developed option is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). This paper briefly summarizes the features of RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 and the integrated uncertainty analysis package, and then presents an example of how the integrated uncertainty package can be setup and used for a simple pipe flow problem. (author)

Uncertainties in Assesment of the Vaginal Dose for Intracavitary Brachytherapy of Cervical Cancer using a Tandem-ring Applicator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berger, Daniel; Dimopoulos, Johannes; Georg, Petra; Georg, Dietmar; Poetter, Richard; Kirisits, Christian

2007-01-01

Purpose: The vagina has not been widely recognized as organ at risk in brachytherapy for cervical cancer. No widely accepted dose parameters are available. This study analyzes the uncertainties in dose reporting for the vaginal wall using tandem-ring applicators. Methods and Materials: Organ wall contours were delineated on axial magnetic resonance (MR) slices to perform dose-volume histogram (DVH) analysis. Different DVH parameters were used in a feasibility study based on 40 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based treatment plans of different cervical cancer patients. Dose to the most irradiated, 0.1 cm 3 , 1 cm 3 , 2 cm 3 , and at defined points on the ring surface and at 5-mm tissue depth were reported. Treatment-planning systems allow different methods of dose point definition. Film dosimetry was used to verify the maximum dose at the surface of the ring applicator in an experimental setup. Results: Dose reporting for the vagina is extremely sensitive to geometrical uncertainties with variations of 25% for 1 mm shifts. Accurate delineation of the vaginal wall is limited by the finite pixel size of MRI and available treatment-planning systems. No significant correlation was found between dose-point and dose-volume parameters. The DVH parameters were often related to noncontiguous volumes and were not able to detect very different situations of spatial dose distributions inside the vaginal wall. Deviations between measured and calculated doses were up to 21%. Conclusions: Reporting either point dose values or DVH parameters for the vaginal wall is based on high inaccuracies because of contouring and geometric positioning. Therefore, the use of prospective dose constraints for individual treatment plans is not to be recommended at present. However, for large patient groups treated within one protocol correlation with vaginal morbidity can be evaluated

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for age-dependent unavailability model integrating test and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kančev, Duško; Čepin, Marko

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Application of analytical unavailability model integrating T and M, ageing, and test strategy. ► Ageing data uncertainty propagation on system level assessed via Monte Carlo simulation. ► Uncertainty impact is growing with the extension of the surveillance test interval. ► Calculated system unavailability dependence on two different sensitivity study ageing databases. ► System unavailability sensitivity insights regarding specific groups of BEs as test intervals extend. - Abstract: The interest in operational lifetime extension of the existing nuclear power plants is growing. Consequently, plants life management programs, considering safety components ageing, are being developed and employed. Ageing represents a gradual degradation of the physical properties and functional performance of different components consequently implying their reduced availability. Analyses, which are being made in the direction of nuclear power plants lifetime extension are based upon components ageing management programs. On the other side, the large uncertainties of the ageing parameters as well as the uncertainties associated with most of the reliability data collections are widely acknowledged. This paper addresses the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted utilizing a previously developed age-dependent unavailability model, integrating effects of test and maintenance activities, for a selected stand-by safety system in a nuclear power plant. The most important problem is the lack of data concerning the effects of ageing as well as the relatively high uncertainty associated to these data, which would correspond to more detailed modelling of ageing. A standard Monte Carlo simulation was coded for the purpose of this paper and utilized in the process of assessment of the component ageing parameters uncertainty propagation on system level. The obtained results from the uncertainty analysis indicate the extent to which the uncertainty of the selected

Sensitivity of low energy brachytherapy Monte Carlo dose calculations to uncertainties in human tissue composition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Landry, Guillaume; Reniers, Brigitte; Murrer, Lars; Lutgens, Ludy; Bloemen-Van Gurp, Esther; Pignol, Jean-Philippe; Keller, Brian; Beaulieu, Luc; Verhaegen, Frank [Department of Radiation Oncology (MAASTRO), GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht 6201 BN (Netherlands); Department of Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M4N 3M5 (Canada); Departement de Radio-Oncologie et Centre de Recherche en Cancerologie, de l' Universite Laval, CHUQ, Pavillon L' Hotel-Dieu de Quebec, Quebec G1R 2J6 (Canada) and Departement de Physique, de Genie Physique et d' Optique, Universite Laval, Quebec G1K 7P4 (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology (MAASTRO), GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht 6201 BN (Netherlands) and Medical Physics Unit, McGill University, Montreal General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1A4 (Canada)

2010-10-15

Purpose: The objective of this work is to assess the sensitivity of Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculations to uncertainties in human tissue composition for a range of low photon energy brachytherapy sources: {sup 125}I, {sup 103}Pd, {sup 131}Cs, and an electronic brachytherapy source (EBS). The low energy photons emitted by these sources make the dosimetry sensitive to variations in tissue atomic number due to the dominance of the photoelectric effect. This work reports dose to a small mass of water in medium D{sub w,m} as opposed to dose to a small mass of medium in medium D{sub m,m}. Methods: Mean adipose, mammary gland, and breast tissues (as uniform mixture of the aforementioned tissues) are investigated as well as compositions corresponding to one standard deviation from the mean. Prostate mean compositions from three different literature sources are also investigated. Three sets of MC simulations are performed with the GEANT4 code: (1) Dose calculations for idealized TG-43-like spherical geometries using point sources. Radial dose profiles obtained in different media are compared to assess the influence of compositional uncertainties. (2) Dose calculations for four clinical prostate LDR brachytherapy permanent seed implants using {sup 125}I seeds (Model 2301, Best Medical, Springfield, VA). The effect of varying the prostate composition in the planning target volume (PTV) is investigated by comparing PTV D{sub 90} values. (3) Dose calculations for four clinical breast LDR brachytherapy permanent seed implants using {sup 103}Pd seeds (Model 2335, Best Medical). The effects of varying the adipose/gland ratio in the PTV and of varying the elemental composition of adipose and gland within one standard deviation of the assumed mean composition are investigated by comparing PTV D{sub 90} values. For (2) and (3), the influence of using the mass density from CT scans instead of unit mass density is also assessed. Results: Results from simulation (1) show that variations

Uncertainties in soil-plant interactions in advanced models for long-timescale dose assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klos, R. [Aleksandria Sciences Ltd. (United Kingdom); Limer, L. [Limer Scientific Ltd. (United Kingdom); Perez-Sanchez, D. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas - CIEMAT (Spain); Xu, S.; Andersson, P. [Swedish Radiation Safty Authority (Sweden)

2014-07-01

Traditional models for long-timescale dose assessment are generally conceptually straightforward, featuring one, two or three spatial compartments in the soil column and employing data based on annually averaged parameters for climate characteristics. The soil-plant system is usually modelled using concentration ratios. The justification for this approach is that the timescales relevant to the geologic disposal of radioactive waste are so long that simple conceptual models are necessary to account for the inherent uncertainties over the timescale of the dose assessment. In the past few years, attention has been given to more detailed 'advanced' models for use dose assessment that have a high degree of site-specific detail. These recognise more features, events and processes since they have higher spatial and temporal resolution. This modelling approach has been developed to account for redox sensitive radionuclides, variability of the water table position and accumulation in non-agricultural ecosystems prior to conversion to an agricultural ecosystem. The models feature higher spatial and temporal resolution in the soil column (up to ten layers with spatially varying k{sub d}s dependent on soil conditions) and monthly rather than annually averaged parameters. Soil-plant interaction is treated as a dynamic process, allowing for root uptake as a function of time and depth, according to the root profile. Uncertainty in dose assessment models associated with the treatment of prior accumulations in agricultural soils has demonstrated the importance of the model's representation of the soil-plant interaction. The treatment of root uptake as a dynamic process as opposed to a simple concentration ratio implies a potentially important difference despite the dynamic soil-plant transfer rate being based on established concentration ratio values. These discrepancies have also appeared in the results from the higher spatio-temporal resolution models. This paper

Analysis of Electronic Densities and Integrated Doses in Multiform Glioblastomas Stereotactic Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron-Aznar, C.; Moreno-Jimenez, S.; Celis, M. A.; Ballesteros-Zebadua, P.; Larraga-Gutierrez, J. M.

2008-01-01

Integrated dose is the total energy delivered in a radiotherapy target. This physical parameter could be a predictor for complications such as brain edema and radionecrosis after stereotactic radiotherapy treatments for brain tumors. Integrated Dose depends on the tissue density and volume. Using CT patients images from the National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery and BrainScan(c) software, this work presents the mean density of 21 multiform glioblastomas, comparative results for normal tissue and estimated integrated dose for each case. The relationship between integrated dose and the probability of complications is discussed

Measuring uncertainty in dose delivered to the cochlea due to setup error during external beam treatment of patients with cancer of the head and neck

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yan, M.; Lovelock, D.; Hunt, M.; Mechalakos, J.; Hu, Y.; Pham, H.; Jackson, A., E-mail: jacksona@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10065 (United States)

2013-12-15

Purpose: To use Cone Beam CT scans obtained just prior to treatments of head and neck cancer patients to measure the setup error and cumulative dose uncertainty of the cochlea. Methods: Data from 10 head and neck patients with 10 planning CTs and 52 Cone Beam CTs taken at time of treatment were used in this study. Patients were treated with conventional fractionation using an IMRT dose painting technique, most with 33 fractions. Weekly radiographic imaging was used to correct the patient setup. The authors used rigid registration of the planning CT and Cone Beam CT scans to find the translational and rotational setup errors, and the spatial setup errors of the cochlea. The planning CT was rotated and translated such that the cochlea positions match those seen in the cone beam scans, cochlea doses were recalculated and fractional doses accumulated. Uncertainties in the positions and cumulative doses of the cochlea were calculated with and without setup adjustments from radiographic imaging. Results: The mean setup error of the cochlea was 0.04 ± 0.33 or 0.06 ± 0.43 cm for RL, 0.09 ± 0.27 or 0.07 ± 0.48 cm for AP, and 0.00 ± 0.21 or −0.24 ± 0.45 cm for SI with and without radiographic imaging, respectively. Setup with radiographic imaging reduced the standard deviation of the setup error by roughly 1–2 mm. The uncertainty of the cochlea dose depends on the treatment plan and the relative positions of the cochlea and target volumes. Combining results for the left and right cochlea, the authors found the accumulated uncertainty of the cochlea dose per fraction was 4.82 (0.39–16.8) cGy, or 10.1 (0.8–32.4) cGy, with and without radiographic imaging, respectively; the percentage uncertainties relative to the planned doses were 4.32% (0.28%–9.06%) and 10.2% (0.7%–63.6%), respectively. Conclusions: Patient setup error introduces uncertainty in the position of the cochlea during radiation treatment. With the assistance of radiographic imaging during setup

Uncertainty assessment of integrated distributed hydrological models using GLUE with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2008-01-01

uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied in order to improve the performance of the methodology in estimating parameters and posterior output distributions. The description of the spatial variations of the hydrological processes is accounted for by defining......In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of distributed, physically-based and integrated hydrological models. Many questions regarding how to properly calibrate and validate distributed models and assess the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and the spatially......-site validation must complement the usual time validation. In this study, we develop, through an application, a comprehensive framework for multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty assessment of distributed physically-based, integrated hydrological models. A revised version of the generalized likelihood...

Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kock, A.

1996-05-01

The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kock, A.

1996-05-01

The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

Optimisation of internal contamination monitoring programme by integration of uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davesne, E.; Casanova, P.; Chojnacki, E.; Paquet, F.; Blanchardon, E.

2011-01-01

Potential internal contamination of workers is monitored by periodic bioassay measurements interpreted in terms of intake and committed effective dose by the use of biokinetic and dosimetric models. After a prospective evaluation of exposure at a workplace, a suitable monitoring programme can be defined by choosing adequate measurement techniques and frequency. In this study, the sensitivity of a programme is evaluated by the minimum intake and dose, which may be detected with a given level of confidence by taking into account uncertainties on exposure conditions and measurements. This is made for programme optimisation, which is performed by comparing the sensitivities of different alternative programmes. These methods were applied at the AREVA NC reprocessing plant and support the current monitoring programme as the best compromise between the cost of the measurements and the sensitivity of the programme. (authors)

Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment: Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karanki, D.R.; Rahman, S.; Dang, V.N.; Zerkak, O.

2017-01-01

The coupling of plant simulation models and stochastic models representing failure events in Dynamic Event Trees (DET) is a framework used to model the dynamic interactions among physical processes, equipment failures, and operator responses. The integration of physical and stochastic models may additionally enhance the treatment of uncertainties. Probabilistic Safety Assessments as currently implemented propagate the (epistemic) uncertainties in failure probabilities, rates, and frequencies; while the uncertainties in the physical model (parameters) are not propagated. The coupling of deterministic (physical) and probabilistic models in integrated simulations such as DET allows both types of uncertainties to be considered. However, integrated accident simulations with epistemic uncertainties will challenge even today's high performance computing infrastructure, especially for simulations of inherently complex nuclear or chemical plants. Conversely, intentionally limiting computations for practical reasons would compromise accuracy of results. This work investigates how to tradeoff accuracy and computations to quantify risk in light of both uncertainties and accident dynamics. A simple depleting tank problem that can be solved analytically is considered to examine the adequacy of a discrete DET approach. The results show that optimal allocation of computational resources between epistemic and aleatory calculations by means of convergence studies ensures accuracy within a limited budget. - Highlights: • Accident simulations considering uncertainties require intensive computations. • Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations is a challenge. • Optimal allocation between epistemic & aleatory computations ensures the tradeoff. • Online convergence gives an early indication of computational requirements. • Uncertainty propagation in DDET is examined on a tank problem solved analytically.

Micropollutants throughout an integrated urban drainage model: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mannina, Giorgio; Cosenza, Alida; Viviani, Gaspare

2017-11-01

The paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated urban drainage model which includes micropollutants. Specifically, a bespoke integrated model developed in previous studies has been modified in order to include the micropollutant assessment (namely, sulfamethoxazole - SMX). The model takes into account also the interactions between the three components of the system: sewer system (SS), wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and receiving water body (RWB). The analysis has been applied to an experimental catchment nearby Palermo (Italy): the Nocella catchment. Overall, five scenarios, each characterized by different uncertainty combinations of sub-systems (i.e., SS, WWTP and RWB), have been considered applying, for the sensitivity analysis, the Extended-FAST method in order to select the key factors affecting the RWB quality and to design a reliable/useful experimental campaign. Results have demonstrated that sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool for increasing operator confidence in the modelling results. The approach adopted here can be used for blocking some non-identifiable factors, thus wisely modifying the structure of the model and reducing the related uncertainty. The model factors related to the SS have been found to be the most relevant factors affecting the SMX modeling in the RWB when all model factors (scenario 1) or model factors of SS (scenarios 2 and 3) are varied. If the only factors related to the WWTP are changed (scenarios 4 and 5), the SMX concentration in the RWB is mainly influenced (till to 95% influence of the total variance for SSMX,max) by the aerobic sorption coefficient. A progressive uncertainty reduction from the upstream to downstream was found for the soluble fraction of SMX in the RWB.

Impact of the spinal cord position uncertainty on the dose received during head and neck helical tomotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piotrowski, Tomasz; Kazmierska, Joanna; Sokolowski, Adam; Skorska, Malgorzata; Jodda, Agata; Ryczkowski, Adam; Cholewinski, Witold; Bak, Bartosz

2013-01-01

The study aims to establish the optimal planning risk volume (PRV) to the spinal cord (SC) for oropharyngeal cancer patients during adaptive radiation therapy with concurrent chemotherapy. Geometrical uncertainties of the SC were evaluated. Differences between planned and delivered maximum doses to each part of the SC were established for every fraction dose and for cumulative dose. Maximum doses were evaluated as a dose received in 0.5 and 1cm3 of the analysed part of the SC defined as C1–C2, C3–C4, C5–C6 and C7–Th1 where Cn was a n-th cervical vertebra (n=1, … , 7) and Th1 was the first thoracic vertebra. Finally, relations between dose differences and geometrical uncertainties were analysed using a relative risk (RR) and the importance of the PRV dose gradient to establish an optimal PRV for the SC. Prospective study based on the 875 observations from 25 oropharyngeal cancer patients was performed. The C1-C2 part of the SC is most exposed to risk of overdosage during chemoradiation for patients with oropharyngeal cancer due to its proximity to the clinical target volume (CTV). Doses received by other parts of the SC are smaller, with the lowest dose delivered to C7–Th1. For the C1–C2, delivered dose was higher than planned dose by 11%, while for the C7–Th1, this difference was smaller than 7%. The lowest movement of individual parts of the SC were detected for the C1–C2 and the highest for the C7–Th1. The standard deviations of the mean shift ranged respectively from 0.9 to 1.4mm and from 1.3 to 2.9mm. For each part of the SC delivered dose was smaller than planned dose to the PRV (RR<1). Our study showed that for chemoradiation of oropharyngeal cancer, using daily image guidance and proper plan adaptation scheme, the current PRV margin for the SC could be reduced to 4mm.

The Uncertainty estimation of Alanine/ESR dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Bo Rum; An, Jin Hee; Choi, Hoon; Kim, Young Ki

2008-01-01

Machinery, tools and cable etc are in the nuclear power plant which environment is very severe. By measuring actual dose, it needs for extending life expectancy of the machinery and tools and the cable. Therefore, we estimated on dose (gamma ray) of Wolsong nuclear power division 1 by dose estimation technology for three years. The dose estimation technology was secured by ESR(Electron Spin Resonance) dose estimation using regression analysis. We estimate uncertainty for secure a reliability of results. The uncertainty estimation will be able to judge the reliability of measurement results. The estimation of uncertainty referred the international unified guide in order; GUM(Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement). It was published by International Standardization for Organization (ISO) in 1993. In this study the uncertainty of e-scan and EMX those are ESR equipment were evaluated and compared. Base on these results, it will improve the reliability of measurement

Uncertainty analysis of an integrated energy system based on information theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fu, Xueqian; Sun, Hongbin; Guo, Qinglai; Pan, Zhaoguang; Xiong, Wen; Wang, Li

2017-01-01

Currently, a custom-designed configuration of different renewable technologies named the integrated energy system (IES) has become popular due to its high efficiency, benefiting from complementary multi-energy technologies. This paper proposes an information entropy approach to quantify uncertainty in an integrated energy system based on a stochastic model that drives a power system model derived from an actual network on Barry Island. Due to the complexity of co-behaviours between generators, a copula-based approach is utilized to articulate the dependency structure of the generator outputs with regard to such factors as weather conditions. Correlation coefficients and mutual information, which are effective for assessing the dependence relationships, are applied to judge whether the stochastic IES model is correct. The calculated information values can be used to analyse the impacts of the coupling of power and heat on power flows and heat flows, and this approach will be helpful for improving the operation of IES. - Highlights: • The paper explores uncertainty of an integrated energy system. • The dependent weather model is verified from the perspective of correlativity. • The IES model considers the dependence between power and heat. • The information theory helps analyse the complexity of IES operation. • The application of the model is studied using an operational system on Barry Island.

Correlated uncertainties in integral data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCracken, A.K.

1978-01-01

The use of correlated uncertainties in calculational data is shown in cases investigated to lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of calculated quantities of importance to reactor design. It is stressed however that such reductions are likely to be important in a minority of cases of practical interest. The effect of uncertainties in detector cross-sections is considered and is seen to be, in some cases, of equal importance to that in the data used in calculations. Numerical investigations have been limited by the sparse information available on data correlations; some comparisons made of these data reveal quite large inconsistencies for both detector cross-sections and cross-section of interest for reactor calculations

Uncertainties in the correction factors as the dose polarization and recombination at different energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alejo Luque, L.; Rodriguez Romero, R.; Castro Tejero, P.; Fandino Lareo, J. M.

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the measures and uncertainties of the correction factors for dose-polarization (k, 1) and recombination (k,) of different ionization chambers plane-parallel and cylindrical. The values ??have been obtained using photon and electron beams of various energies generated by linear accelerators nominal Varian 21EX CLJNAC Tomotherapy Hi-Art and JI. We study the cases in which you can avoid the application of the factors obtained, according to the criteria proposed

Reporting and analyzing statistical uncertainties in Monte Carlo-based treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chetty, Indrin J.; Rosu, Mihaela; Kessler, Marc L.; Fraass, Benedick A.; Haken, Randall K. ten; Kong, Feng-Ming; McShan, Daniel L.

2006-01-01

Purpose: To investigate methods of reporting and analyzing statistical uncertainties in doses to targets and normal tissues in Monte Carlo (MC)-based treatment planning. Methods and Materials: Methods for quantifying statistical uncertainties in dose, such as uncertainty specification to specific dose points, or to volume-based regions, were analyzed in MC-based treatment planning for 5 lung cancer patients. The effect of statistical uncertainties on target and normal tissue dose indices was evaluated. The concept of uncertainty volume histograms for targets and organs at risk was examined, along with its utility, in conjunction with dose volume histograms, in assessing the acceptability of the statistical precision in dose distributions. The uncertainty evaluation tools were extended to four-dimensional planning for application on multiple instances of the patient geometry. All calculations were performed using the Dose Planning Method MC code. Results: For targets, generalized equivalent uniform doses and mean target doses converged at 150 million simulated histories, corresponding to relative uncertainties of less than 2% in the mean target doses. For the normal lung tissue (a volume-effect organ), mean lung dose and normal tissue complication probability converged at 150 million histories despite the large range in the relative organ uncertainty volume histograms. For 'serial' normal tissues such as the spinal cord, large fluctuations exist in point dose relative uncertainties. Conclusions: The tools presented here provide useful means for evaluating statistical precision in MC-based dose distributions. Tradeoffs between uncertainties in doses to targets, volume-effect organs, and 'serial' normal tissues must be considered carefully in determining acceptable levels of statistical precision in MC-computed dose distributions

The neural substrate and functional integration of uncertainty in decision making: an information theory approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Goñi, Joaquín; Aznárez-Sanado, Maite; Arrondo, Gonzalo; Fernández-Seara, María; Loayza, Francis R; Heukamp, Franz H; Pastor, María A

2011-03-09

Decision making can be regarded as the outcome of cognitive processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Borrowing a central measurement from information theory, Shannon entropy, we quantified the uncertainties produced by decisions of participants within an economic decision task under different configurations of reward probability and time. These descriptors were used to obtain blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal correlates of uncertainty and two clusters codifying the Shannon entropy of task configurations were identified: a large cluster including parts of the right middle cingulate cortex (MCC) and left and right pre-supplementary motor areas (pre-SMA) and a small cluster at the left anterior thalamus. Subsequent functional connectivity analyses using the psycho-physiological interactions model identified areas involved in the functional integration of uncertainty. Results indicate that clusters mostly located at frontal and temporal cortices experienced an increased connectivity with the right MCC and left and right pre-SMA as the uncertainty was higher. Furthermore, pre-SMA was also functionally connected to a rich set of areas, most of them associative areas located at occipital and parietal lobes. This study provides a map of the human brain segregation and integration (i.e., neural substrate and functional connectivity respectively) of the uncertainty associated to an economic decision making paradigm.

Collaborative Knowledge Building and Integral Theory: On Perspectives, Uncertainty, and Mutual Regard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Murray

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty in knowing and communicating affect all aspects of modern life. Ubiquitous and inevitable uncertainty, including ambiguity and paradox, is particularly salient and important in knowledge building communities. Because knowledge building communities represent and evolve knowledge explicitly, the causes, effects, and approaches to this “epistemological indeterminacy” can be directly addressed in knowledge building practices. Integral theory’s approach (including “methodological pluralism” involves accepting and integrating diverse perspectives in ways that transcend and include them. This approach accentuates the problems of epistemological indeterminacy and highlights the general need to deal creatively with it. This article begins with a cursory analysis of textual dialogs among integral theorists, showing that, while integral theory itself points to leading-edge ways of dealing with epistemological indeterminacy, the knowledge building practices of integral theorists, by and large, exhibit the same limitations as traditional intellectual discourses. Yet, due to its values and core methods, the integral theory community is in a unique position to develop novel and more adequate modes of inquiry and dialog. This text explores how epistemological indeterminacy impacts the activities and products of groups engaged in collaborative knowledge building. Approaching the issue from three perspectives–mutual understanding, mutual agreement, and mutual regard—I show the interdependence of those perspectives and ground them in relation to integral theory’s concerns. This article proposes three phases of developing constructive alternatives drawn from the knowledge building field: awareness of the phenomena, understanding the phenomena, and offering some tools (and some hope for dealing with it. Though here I focus on the integral theory community (or communities, the conclusions of the article are meant to be applicable to any

Collaborative Knowledge Building and Integral Theory:On Perspectives,Uncertainty, and Mutual Regard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Murray

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty in knowing and communicating affect all aspects of modern life. Ubiquitous and inevitable uncertainty, including ambiguity and paradox, is particularly salient and important in knowledge building communities. Because knowledge building communities represent and evolve knowledge explicitly, the causes, effects, and approaches to this “epistemological indeterminacy” can be directly addressed in knowledge building practices. Integral theory's approach (including “methodological pluralism” involves accepting and integrating diverse perspectives in ways that transcend and include them. This approach accentuates the problems of epistemological indeterminacy and highlights the general need to deal creatively with it. This article begins with a cursory analysis of textual dialogs among integral theorists, showing that, while integral theory itself points to leading-edge ways of dealing with epistemological indeterminacy, the knowledge building practices of integral theorists, by and large, exhibit the same limitations as traditional intellectual discourses. Yet, due to its values and core methods, the integral theory community is in a unique position to develop novel and more adequate modes of inquiry and dialog. This text explores how epistemological indeterminacy impacts the activities and products of groups engaged in collaborative knowledge building. Approaching the issue from three perspectives—mutual understanding, mutual agreement, and mutual regard—I show the interdependence of those perspectives and ground them in relation to integral theory’s concerns. This article proposes three phases of developing constructive alternatives drawn from the knowledge building field: awareness of the phenomena, understanding the phenomena, and offering some tools (and some hope for dealing with it. Though here I focus on the integral theory community (or communities, the conclusions of the article are meant to be applicable to any

Uncertainty analysis techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.

1987-01-01

The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site

Uncertainty Reduction Via Parameter Design of A Fast Digital Integrator for Magnetic Field Measurement

CERN Document Server

Arpaia, P; Lucariello, G; Spiezia, G

2007-01-01

At European Centre of Nuclear Research (CERN), within the new Large Hadron Collider (LHC) project, measurements of magnetic flux with uncertainty of 10 ppm at a few of decades of Hz for several minutes are required. With this aim, a new Fast Digital Integrator (FDI) has been developed in cooperation with University of Sannio, Italy [1]. This paper deals with the final design tuning for achieving target uncertainty by means of experimental statistical parameter design.

An analysis of uncertainty and of dependence on season of year of ingestion population dose arising from design basis accidents in advanced thermal reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nair, S.; Ponting, A.C.

1985-03-01

The results of a detailed study of ingestion collective dose from five limiting PWR design basis releases are presented, the PWR being chosen as being typical of an advanced thermal reactor for which source terms are readily available. The ingestion collective dose was calculated for a range of wind direction/weather scenarios for releases from a typical U.K. rural and a U.K. semi-urban site and scenarios identified where the ingestion pathway was of potential significance. The dependence of the ingestion collective dose for these cases on the season of year when the release occurs was investigated. An analysis was carried out of the uncertainty in the ''worst case'' ingestion calculations arising from uncertainties in foodchain input parameters. An efficient but comprehensive set of dynamic foodchain computer models was produced and the literature surveyed to produce probability distribution functions (PDF's) for all relevant independent input data items. These were used to produce output PDF's for food contamination levels and for ingestion collective dose from the five releases. Finally, the study has highlighted several areas central to ingestion collective dose assessments where the available data are inadequate. This led to the formulation of a set of future research requirements which will need to be met both to obtain a better fundamental understanding of foodchain transfer and to reduce uncertainties in ingestion collective dose assessments. (author)

A probabilistic approach to quantify the uncertainties in internal dose assessment using response surface and neural network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baek, M.; Lee, S.K.; Lee, U.C.; Kang, C.S.

1996-01-01

A probabilistic approach is formulated to assess the internal radiation exposure following the intake of radioisotopes. This probabilistic approach consists of 4 steps as follows: (1) screening, (2) quantification of uncertainties, (3) propagation of uncertainties, and (4) analysis of output. The approach has been applied for Pu-induced internal dose assessment and a multi-compartment dosimetric model is used for internal transport. In this approach, surrogate models of original system are constructed using response and neural network. And the results of these surrogate models are compared with those of original model. Each surrogate model well approximates the original model. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are evaluated in this process. Dominant contributors to each organ are identified and the results show that this approach could serve a good tool of assessing the internal radiation exposure

Uncertainties in low γ-dose determinations by means of ESR using the biomaterial modern coral reef

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, Gamal M.; Sharaf, M.A.

2006-01-01

The ESR spectrum of unirradiated modern aragonite coral (CaCO 3 ) material from the Red Sea (Hurgada area) is characterized by four signals with spectroscopic splitting factors of g=2.0056, 2.0030, 2.0006 and 1.997. The most intensive and stable line in this spectrum is attributed to CO 2 - radicals at g=2.0006+/-0.0005. The dose response from 50mGy to 20Gy, energy dependence and effective atomic number are calculated so as to investigate coral as a dosimeter material in the clinical dose range. The lower experimental γ-dose limit was found to be 50mGy with signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio of 15. The combined and expanded uncertainties accompanying these measurements are 1.72% and 3.44%, respectively

Uncertainties in low {gamma}-dose determinations by means of ESR using the biomaterial modern coral reef

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hassan, Gamal M. [Department of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, National Institute for Standards (NIS), Tersa Street El-Haram El-Giza, P.O. Box 136 Giza, El-Giza (Egypt)]. E-mail: gamalhassan65@hotmail.com; Sharaf, M.A. [Department of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, National Institute for Standards (NIS), Tersa Street El-Haram El-Giza, P.O. Box 136 Giza, El-Giza (Egypt)

2006-01-15

The ESR spectrum of unirradiated modern aragonite coral (CaCO{sub 3}) material from the Red Sea (Hurgada area) is characterized by four signals with spectroscopic splitting factors of g=2.0056, 2.0030, 2.0006 and 1.997. The most intensive and stable line in this spectrum is attributed to CO{sub 2}{sup -} radicals at g=2.0006+/-0.0005. The dose response from 50mGy to 20Gy, energy dependence and effective atomic number are calculated so as to investigate coral as a dosimeter material in the clinical dose range. The lower experimental {gamma}-dose limit was found to be 50mGy with signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio of 15. The combined and expanded uncertainties accompanying these measurements are 1.72% and 3.44%, respectively.

The neural substrate and functional integration of uncertainty in decision making: an information theory approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joaquín Goñi

Full Text Available Decision making can be regarded as the outcome of cognitive processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Borrowing a central measurement from information theory, Shannon entropy, we quantified the uncertainties produced by decisions of participants within an economic decision task under different configurations of reward probability and time. These descriptors were used to obtain blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD signal correlates of uncertainty and two clusters codifying the Shannon entropy of task configurations were identified: a large cluster including parts of the right middle cingulate cortex (MCC and left and right pre-supplementary motor areas (pre-SMA and a small cluster at the left anterior thalamus. Subsequent functional connectivity analyses using the psycho-physiological interactions model identified areas involved in the functional integration of uncertainty. Results indicate that clusters mostly located at frontal and temporal cortices experienced an increased connectivity with the right MCC and left and right pre-SMA as the uncertainty was higher. Furthermore, pre-SMA was also functionally connected to a rich set of areas, most of them associative areas located at occipital and parietal lobes. This study provides a map of the human brain segregation and integration (i.e., neural substrate and functional connectivity respectively of the uncertainty associated to an economic decision making paradigm.

Advanced Approach to Consider Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties for Integral Accident Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peschke, Joerg; Kloos, Martina

2013-01-01

The use of best-estimate codes together with realistic input data generally requires that all potentially important epistemic uncertainties which may affect the code prediction are considered in order to get an adequate quantification of the epistemic uncertainty of the prediction as an expression of the existing imprecise knowledge. To facilitate the performance of the required epistemic uncertainty analyses, methods and corresponding software tools are available like, for instance, the GRS-tool SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis). However, for risk-informed decision-making, the restriction on epistemic uncertainties alone is not enough. Transients and accident scenarios are also affected by aleatory uncertainties which are due to the unpredictable nature of phenomena. It is essential that aleatory uncertainties are taken into account as well, not only in a simplified and supposedly conservative way but as realistic as possible. The additional consideration of aleatory uncertainties, for instance, on the behavior of the technical system, the performance of plant operators, or on the behavior of the physical process provides a quantification of probabilistically significant accident sequences. Only if a safety analysis is able to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a realistic manner, it can provide a well-founded risk-informed answer for decision-making. At GRS, an advanced probabilistic dynamics method was developed to address this problem and to provide a more realistic modeling and assessment of transients and accident scenarios. This method allows for an integral simulation of complex dynamic processes particularly taking into account interactions between the plant dynamics as simulated by a best-estimate code, the dynamics of operator actions and the influence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the GRS method MCDET (Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree) for probabilistic dynamics analysis is explained

Propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in an integral oil-gas plume model

KAUST Repository

Wang, Shitao

2016-05-27

Polynomial Chaos expansions are used to analyze uncertainties in an integral oil-gas plume model simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The study focuses on six uncertain input parameters—two entrainment parameters, the gas to oil ratio, two parameters associated with the droplet-size distribution, and the flow rate—that impact the model\\'s estimates of the plume\\'s trap and peel heights, and of its various gas fluxes. The ranges of the uncertain inputs were determined by experimental data. Ensemble calculations were performed to construct polynomial chaos-based surrogates that describe the variations in the outputs due to variations in the uncertain inputs. The surrogates were then used to estimate reliably the statistics of the model outputs, and to perform an analysis of variance. Two experiments were performed to study the impacts of high and low flow rate uncertainties. The analysis shows that in the former case the flow rate is the largest contributor to output uncertainties, whereas in the latter case, with the uncertainty range constrained by aposteriori analyses, the flow rate\\'s contribution becomes negligible. The trap and peel heights uncertainties are then mainly due to uncertainties in the 95% percentile of the droplet size and in the entrainment parameters.

Propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in an integral oil-gas plume model

KAUST Repository

Wang, Shitao; Iskandarani, Mohamed; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Thacker, W. Carlisle; Winokur, Justin; Knio, Omar

2016-01-01

Polynomial Chaos expansions are used to analyze uncertainties in an integral oil-gas plume model simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The study focuses on six uncertain input parameters—two entrainment parameters, the gas to oil ratio, two parameters associated with the droplet-size distribution, and the flow rate—that impact the model's estimates of the plume's trap and peel heights, and of its various gas fluxes. The ranges of the uncertain inputs were determined by experimental data. Ensemble calculations were performed to construct polynomial chaos-based surrogates that describe the variations in the outputs due to variations in the uncertain inputs. The surrogates were then used to estimate reliably the statistics of the model outputs, and to perform an analysis of variance. Two experiments were performed to study the impacts of high and low flow rate uncertainties. The analysis shows that in the former case the flow rate is the largest contributor to output uncertainties, whereas in the latter case, with the uncertainty range constrained by aposteriori analyses, the flow rate's contribution becomes negligible. The trap and peel heights uncertainties are then mainly due to uncertainties in the 95% percentile of the droplet size and in the entrainment parameters.

Determination of the integral dose in CT of the neurocranium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rahim, H.; Mandl, H.; Hofmann, W.; Grobovschek, M.

1985-12-01

The amount of exposure of the cranium is calculated on the basis of the measured dose distribution in craniocaudal direction and on the axial planes of the Alderson phantom. The integral dose of the cranium and the local dose at sensitive organs are used as a measure of radiation exposure. (orig.).

Dose assessments for SFR 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergstroem, Ulla; Avila, Rodolfo; Ekstroem, Per-Anders; Cruz, Idalmis de la

2008-05-01

Following a review by the Swedish regulatory authorities of the safety analysis of the SFR 1 disposal facility for low and intermediate level waste, SKB has prepared an updated safety analysis, SAR-08. This report presents estimations of annual doses to the most exposed groups from potential radionuclide releases from the SFR 1 repository for a number of calculation cases, selected using a systematic approach for identifying relevant scenarios for the safety analysis. The dose estimates can be used for demonstrating that the long term safety of the repository is in compliance with the regulatory requirements. In particular, the mean values of the annual doses can be used to estimate the expected risks to the most exposed individuals, which can then be compared with the regulatory risk criteria for human health. The conversion from doses to risks is performed in the main report. For one scenario however, where the effects of an earthquake taking place close to the repository are analysed, risk calculations are presented in this report. In addition, prediction of concentrations of radionuclides in environmental media, such as water and soil, are compared with concentration limits suggested by the Erica-project as a base for estimating potential effects on the environment. The assessment of the impact on non-human biota showed that the potential impact is negligible. Committed collective dose for an integration period of 10,000 years for releases occurring during the first thousand years after closure are also calculated. The collective dose commitment was estimated to be 8 manSv. The dose calculations were carried out for a period of 100,000 years, which was sufficient to observe peak doses in all scenarios considered. Releases to the landscape and to a well were considered. The peaks of the mean annual doses from releases to the landscape are associated with C-14 releases to a future lake around year 5,000 AD. In the case of releases to a well, the peak annual doses

Dose assessments for SFR 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bergstroem, Ulla (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Avila, Rodolfo; Ekstroem, Per-Anders; Cruz, Idalmis de la (Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden))

2008-06-15

Following a review by the Swedish regulatory authorities of the safety analysis of the SFR 1 disposal facility for low and intermediate level waste, SKB has prepared an updated safety analysis, SAR-08. This report presents estimations of annual doses to the most exposed groups from potential radionuclide releases from the SFR 1 repository for a number of calculation cases, selected using a systematic approach for identifying relevant scenarios for the safety analysis. The dose estimates can be used for demonstrating that the long term safety of the repository is in compliance with the regulatory requirements. In particular, the mean values of the annual doses can be used to estimate the expected risks to the most exposed individuals, which can then be compared with the regulatory risk criteria for human health. The conversion from doses to risks is performed in the main report. For one scenario however, where the effects of an earthquake taking place close to the repository are analysed, risk calculations are presented in this report. In addition, prediction of concentrations of radionuclides in environmental media, such as water and soil, are compared with concentration limits suggested by the Erica-project as a base for estimating potential effects on the environment. The assessment of the impact on non-human biota showed that the potential impact is negligible. Committed collective dose for an integration period of 10,000 years for releases occurring during the first thousand years after closure are also calculated. The collective dose commitment was estimated to be 8 manSv. The dose calculations were carried out for a period of 100,000 years, which was sufficient to observe peak doses in all scenarios considered. Releases to the landscape and to a well were considered. The peaks of the mean annual doses from releases to the landscape are associated with C-14 releases to a future lake around year 5,000 AD. In the case of releases to a well, the peak annual doses

Method for estimating effects of unknown correlations in spectral irradiance data on uncertainties of spectrally integrated colorimetric quantities

Science.gov (United States)

Kärhä, Petri; Vaskuri, Anna; Mäntynen, Henrik; Mikkonen, Nikke; Ikonen, Erkki

2017-08-01

Spectral irradiance data are often used to calculate colorimetric properties, such as color coordinates and color temperatures of light sources by integration. The spectral data may contain unknown correlations that should be accounted for in the uncertainty estimation. We propose a new method for estimating uncertainties in such cases. The method goes through all possible scenarios of deviations using Monte Carlo analysis. Varying spectral error functions are produced by combining spectral base functions, and the distorted spectra are used to calculate the colorimetric quantities. Standard deviations of the colorimetric quantities at different scenarios give uncertainties assuming no correlations, uncertainties assuming full correlation, and uncertainties for an unfavorable case of unknown correlations, which turn out to be a significant source of uncertainty. With 1% standard uncertainty in spectral irradiance, the expanded uncertainty of the correlated color temperature of a source corresponding to the CIE Standard Illuminant A may reach as high as 37.2 K in unfavorable conditions, when calculations assuming full correlation give zero uncertainty, and calculations assuming no correlations yield the expanded uncertainties of 5.6 K and 12.1 K, with wavelength steps of 1 nm and 5 nm used in spectral integrations, respectively. We also show that there is an absolute limit of 60.2 K in the error of the correlated color temperature for Standard Illuminant A when assuming 1% standard uncertainty in the spectral irradiance. A comparison of our uncorrelated uncertainties with those obtained using analytical methods by other research groups shows good agreement. We re-estimated the uncertainties for the colorimetric properties of our 1 kW photometric standard lamps using the new method. The revised uncertainty of color temperature is a factor of 2.5 higher than the uncertainty assuming no correlations.

Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Jakob; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Schwaerz, Marc

2018-05-01

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere - such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information) - can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS) at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP); Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC); and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp). The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs robustly. Together

Medical Humanities: The Rx for Uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Ofri, Danielle

2017-12-01

While medical students often fear the avalanche of knowledge they are required to learn during training, it is learning to translate that knowledge into wisdom that is the greatest challenge of becoming a doctor. Part of that challenge is learning to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty, a difficult feat for doctors who are taught to question anything that is not evidence based or peer reviewed. The medical humanities specialize in this ambiguity and uncertainty, which are hallmarks of actual clinical practice but rarely addressed in medical education. The humanities also force reflection and contemplation-skills that are crucial to thoughtful decision making and to personal wellness. Beyond that, the humanities add a dose of joy and beauty to a training process that is notoriously frugal in these departments. Well integrated, the humanities can be the key to transforming medical knowledge into clinical wisdom.

A method for calculating Bayesian uncertainties on internal doses resulting from complex occupational exposures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puncher, M.; Birchall, A.; Bull, R. K.

2012-01-01

Estimating uncertainties on doses from bioassay data is of interest in epidemiology studies that estimate cancer risk from occupational exposures to radionuclides. Bayesian methods provide a logical framework to calculate these uncertainties. However, occupational exposures often consist of many intakes, and this can make the Bayesian calculation computationally intractable. This paper describes a novel strategy for increasing the computational speed of the calculation by simplifying the intake pattern to a single composite intake, termed as complex intake regime (CIR). In order to assess whether this approximation is accurate and fast enough for practical purposes, the method is implemented by the Weighted Likelihood Monte Carlo Sampling (WeLMoS) method and evaluated by comparing its performance with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC method gives the full solution (all intakes are independent), but is very computationally intensive to apply routinely. Posterior distributions of model parameter values, intakes and doses are calculated for a representative sample of plutonium workers from the United Kingdom Atomic Energy cohort using the WeLMoS method with the CIR and the MCMC method. The distributions are in good agreement: posterior means and Q 0.025 and Q 0.975 quantiles are typically within 20 %. Furthermore, the WeLMoS method using the CIR converges quickly: a typical case history takes around 10-20 min on a fast workstation, whereas the MCMC method took around 12-hr. The advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed. (authors)

Review of Polynomial Chaos-Based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Modern Integrated Circuits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arun Kaintura

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Advances in manufacturing process technology are key ensembles for the production of integrated circuits in the sub-micrometer region. It is of paramount importance to assess the effects of tolerances in the manufacturing process on the performance of modern integrated circuits. The polynomial chaos expansion has emerged as a suitable alternative to standard Monte Carlo-based methods that are accurate, but computationally cumbersome. This paper provides an overview of the most recent developments and challenges in the application of polynomial chaos-based techniques for uncertainty quantification in integrated circuits, with particular focus on high-dimensional problems.

Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

1999-01-01

In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

SU-F-BRE-14: Uncertainty Analysis for Dose Measurements Using OSLD NanoDots

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kry, S; Alvarez, P; Stingo, F; Followill, D [UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

2014-06-15

Purpose: Optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLD) are an increasingly popular dosimeter for research and clinical applications. It is also used by the Radiological Physics Center for remote auditing of machine output. In this work we robustly calculated the reproducibility and uncertainty of the OSLD nanoDot. Methods: For the RPC dose calculation, raw readings are corrected for depletion, element sensitivity, fading, linearity, and energy. System calibration is determined for the experimental OSLD irradiated at different institutions by using OSLD irradiated by the RPC under reference conditions (i.e., standards): 1 Gy in a Cobalt beam. The intra-dot and inter-dot reproducibilities (coefficient of variation) were determined from the history of RPC readings of these standards. The standard deviation of the corrected OSLD signal was then calculated analytically using a recursive formalism that did not rely on the normality assumption of the underlying uncertainties, or on any type of mathematical approximation. This analytical uncertainty was compared to that empirically estimated from >45,000 RPC beam audits. Results: The intra-dot variability was found to be 0.59%, with only a small variation between readers. Inter-dot variability was found to be 0.85%. The uncertainty in each of the individual correction factors was empirically determined. When the raw counts from each OSLD were adjusted for the appropriate correction factors, the analytically determined coefficient of variation was 1.8% over a range of institutional irradiation conditions that are seen at the RPC. This is reasonably consistent with the empirical observations of the RPC, where the coefficient of variation of the measured beam outputs is 1.6% (photons) and 1.9% (electrons). Conclusion: OSLD nanoDots provide sufficiently good precision for a wide range of applications, including the RPC remote monitoring program for megavoltage beams. This work was supported by PHS grant CA10953 awarded by

Limitations of a convolution method for modeling geometric uncertainties in radiation therapy: the radiobiological dose-per-fraction effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, William; Battista, Jerry; Van Dyk, Jake

2004-01-01

The convolution method can be used to model the effect of random geometric uncertainties into planned dose distributions used in radiation treatment planning. This is effectively done by linearly adding infinitesimally small doses, each with a particular geometric offset, over an assumed infinite number of fractions. However, this process inherently ignores the radiobiological dose-per-fraction effect since only the summed physical dose distribution is generated. The resultant potential error on predicted radiobiological outcome [quantified in this work with tumor control probability (TCP), equivalent uniform dose (EUD), normal tissue complication probability (NTCP), and generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD)] has yet to be thoroughly quantified. In this work, the results of a Monte Carlo simulation of geometric displacements are compared to those of the convolution method for random geometric uncertainties of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 mm (standard deviation). The α/β CTV ratios of 0.8, 1.5, 3, 5, and 10 Gy are used to represent the range of radiation responses for different tumors, whereas a single α/β OAR ratio of 3 Gy is used to represent all the organs at risk (OAR). The analysis is performed on a four-field prostate treatment plan of 18 MV x rays. The fraction numbers are varied from 1-50, with isoeffective adjustments of the corresponding dose-per-fractions to maintain a constant tumor control, using the linear-quadratic cell survival model. The average differences in TCP and EUD of the target, and in NTCP and gEUD of the OAR calculated from the convolution and Monte Carlo methods reduced asymptotically as the total fraction number increased, with the differences reaching negligible levels beyond the treatment fraction number of ≥20. The convolution method generally overestimates the radiobiological indices, as compared to the Monte Carlo method, for the target volume, and underestimates those for the OAR. These effects are interconnected and attributed

Uncertainty and variability in updated estimates of potential dose and risk at a US Nuclear Test Site - Bikini Atoll

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.; Robison, W.L.

1997-01-01

Uncertainty and interindividual variability were assessed in estimated doses for a rehabilitation scenario for Bikini Island at Bikini Atoll, in which the top 40 cm of soil would be removed in the housing and village area, and the rest of the island would be treated with potassium fertilizer, prior to an assumed resettlement date of 1999. Doses were estimated for ingested 137 Cs and 90 Sr, external gamma-exposure, and inhalation+ingestion of 241 Am + 239+240 Pu. Two dietary scenarios were considered: imported foods are available (IA); imported foods are unavailable with only local foods consumed (IUA). After ∼5 y of Bikini residence under either IA or IUA assumptions, upper and lower 95% confidence limits on interindividual variability in calculated dose were estimated to lie within a ∼threefold factor of its in population-average value; upper and lower 95% confidence limits on uncertainty in calculated dose were estimated to lie within a ∼twofold factor of its expected value. For reference, the expected values of population-average dose at age 70 y were estimated to be 16 and 52 mSv under IA and IUA dietary assumptions, respectively. Assuming that 200 Bikini resettlers would be exposed to local foods (under both IA and IUA assumptions), the maximum 1-y dose received by any Bikini resident is most likely to be approximately 2 and 8 mSv under the IA and IUA assumptions, respectively. Under the most likely dietary scenario, involving access to imported foods, this analysis indicates that it is most likely that no additional cancer fatalities (above those normally expected) would arise from the increased radiation exposures considered. 33 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

Practical low dose limits for passive personal dosemeters and the implications for uncertainties close to the limit of detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilvin, P. J.; Perks, C. A.

2011-01-01

Recent years have seen the increasing use of passive dosemeters that have high sensitivities and, in laboratory conditions, detection limits of <10 μSv. However, in real operational use the detection limits will be markedly higher, because a large fraction of the accrued dose will be due to natural background, and this must be subtracted in order to obtain the desired occupational dose. No matter how well known the natural background is, the measurement uncertainty on doses of a few tens of microsieverts will be large. Individual monitoring services need to recognise this and manage the expectations of their clients by providing sufficient information. (authors)

Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schwarz

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS radio occultation (RO observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere – such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information – can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP; Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC; and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp. The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs

Uncertainties associated to the using of alanine/EPR for the dose interval in the radiotherapy; Incertezas associadas na utilizacao da alanina/RPE para o intervalo de dose da radioterapia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodrigues Junior, O.; Campos, L. L. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2004-07-01

The High Doses Laboratory of IPEN is developing a dosimetric system for high doses based on Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) of free radical radiation induced on alanine. The objective of this work is to present the efforts towards to improve the measure accuracy for doses in the range between 1-10 Gy. This system could be used as reference by radiotherapy services, as much in the quality control of the equipment, as for routine accompaniment of more complex handling where the total doses can reach some grays. The main problem for routine implantation is the calibration and the traceability of the system and many errors sources affects the accuracy of the measurements. In this work are discussed same aspects related on the uncertainty evaluation associated with high dose measurement using alanine and EPR. (author)

The Precautionary Principle and statistical approaches to uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2003-01-01

Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standards in toxicology; dose-response relationship; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification......Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standards in toxicology; dose-response relationship; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification...

The Precautionary Principle and Statistical Approaches to Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

2005-01-01

Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standars in toxicology; dose-response relationships; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification......Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standars in toxicology; dose-response relationships; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification...

[Determination of the integral dose in computer tomography of the neurocranium].

Science.gov (United States)

Rahim, H; Hofmann, W; Grobovschek, M; Mandl, H

1985-12-01

The amount of exposure of the cranium is calculated on the basis of the measured dose distribution in craniocaudal direction and on the axial planes of the Alderson phantom. The integral dose of the cranium and the local dose at sensitive organs are used as a measure of radiation exposure.

The effect of an integrated education model on anxiety and uncertainty in patients undergoing cervical disc herniation surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Chuang, Mei-Fang; Tung, Heng-Hsin; Clinciu, Daniel L; Huang, Jing-Shan; Iqbal, Usman; Chang, Chih-Ju; Su, I-Chang; Lai, Fu-Chih; Li, Yu-Chuan

2016-09-01

Educating patients about receiving surgical procedures is becoming an important issue, as it can reduce anxiety and uncertainty while helping to hasten decisions for undergoing time sensitive surgeries. We evaluated a new integrated education model for patients undergoing cervical disc herniation surgery using a quasi-experimental design. The participants were grouped into either the new integrated educational model (n = 32) or the standard group (n = 32) on the basis of their ward numbers assigned at admission. Anxiety, uncertainty, and patient satisfaction were measured before (pre-test) and after the educational intervention (post-test-1) and post-surgery (post-test-2) to assess the effectiveness of the model in this intervention. We found that the generalized estimating equation modeling demonstrated this new integrated education model was more effective than the conventional model in reducing patients' anxiety and uncertainty (p approach to individual health. This novel systemic educational model enhances patient's understanding of the medical condition and surgery while promoting patient-caregiver interaction for optimal patient health outcomes. We present a comprehensive and consistent platform for educational purposes in patients undergoing surgery as well as reducing the psychological burden from anxiety and uncertainty. Integrating medicine, nursing, and new technologies into an e-practice and e-learning platform offers the potential of easier understanding and usage. It could revolutionize patient education in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Uncertainty analysis in the task of individual monitoring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Molokanov, A.; Badjin, V.; Gasteva, G.; Antipin, E.

2003-01-01

Assessment of internal doses is an essential component of individual monitoring programmes for workers and consists of two stages: individual monitoring measurements and interpretation of the monitoring data in terms of annual intake and/or annual internal dose. The overall uncertainty in assessed dose is a combination of the uncertainties in these stages. An algorithm and a computer code were developed for estimating the uncertainties in these stages. An algorithm and a computer code were developed for estimating the uncertainty in the assessment of internal dose in the task of individual monitoring data interpretation. Two main influencing factors are analysed in this paper: the unknown time of the exposure and variability of bioassay measurements. The aim of this analysis is to show that the algorithm is applicable in designing an individual monitoring programme for workers so as to guarantee that the individual dose calculated from individual monitoring measurements does not exceed a required limit with a certain confidence probability. (author)

A Study of the Impact of Underground Economy on Integral Tax Burden in the Proportional Growth Model under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akif Musayev

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Economic processes are naturally characterized by imprecise and uncertain relevant information. One of the main reasons is existence of an underground economy. However, in existing works, real-world imprecision and uncertainty of economic conditions are not taken into account. In this paper we consider a problem of calculation of a taxation base to assess tax burden for proportionally growing economy under uncertainty. In order to account for imprecision and uncertainty of economic processes, we use the theory of fuzzy sets. A fuzzy integral equation is used to identify an integral tax burden taking into account the contribution of the underground economy for a certain financial (tax year. It is also assumed that dynamics of gross domestic product are modeled by fuzzy linear differential equation. An optimal value of tax burden is determined as a solution to the considered fuzzy integral equation. An example is provided to illustrate validity of the proposed study.

Uncertainties in fatal cancer risk estimates used in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki

1999-01-01

Although ICRP and NCRP had not described the details of uncertainties in cancer risk estimates in radiation protection, NCRP, in 1997, firstly reported the results of uncertainty analysis (NCRP No.126) and which is summarized in this paper. The NCRP report pointed out that there are following five factors which uncertainty possessing: uncertainty in epidemiological studies, in dose assessment, in transforming the estimates to risk assessment, in risk prediction and in extrapolation to the low dose/dose rate. These individual factors were analyzed statistically to obtain the relationship between the probability of cancer death in the US population and life time risk coefficient (% per Sv), which showed that, for the latter, the mean value was 3.99 x 10 -2 /Sv, median, 3.38 x 10 -2 /Sv, GSD (geometrical standard deviation), 1.83 x 10 -2 /Sv and 95% confidential limit, 1.2-8.84 x 10 -2 /Sv. The mean value was smaller than that of ICRP recommendation (5 x 10 -2 /Sv), indicating that the value has the uncertainty factor of 2.5-3. Moreover, the most important factor was shown to be the uncertainty in DDREF (dose/dose rate reduction factor). (K.H.)

Estimation of uncertainty in TLD calibration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasabelrasoul, H. A.

2013-07-01

In this study thermoluminescence dosimeter TLD was use of individual control devices to make sure the quality assurance and quality control in individual monitoring. The uncertainty measured in reader calibration coefficients for tow reader and uncertainty in radiation dose after irradiate in SSDL laboratory. Fifty sample was selected for the study was placed in the oven at a temperature of 400 for an hour to get zero or background and took zero count by or background and took zero count by reader (1) and reader (2) and then irradiate in SSDL by cesium-137 at a dose of 5 mGy and laid back in the oven at degrees 100 and degrees 10 minutes, to 10 chips for calibration and readout count by reader one and reader two. The RCF was found for each reader above 1.47 and 1.11, respectively, and found the uncertainty RCF was found for each reader above 1.47 and 1.11, respectively, and found the uncertainly RCF 0.430629 and 0.431973. Radiation dose was measured for fifty samples irradiate to dose of 5 mGy and read the count by reader 1 and reader 2 the uncertainty was found for each reader 0.490446 and 0.587602.(Author)

Methods of assessing total doses integrated across pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grzechnik, M.; Camplin, W.; Clyne, F.; Allott, R.; Webbe-Wood, D.

2006-01-01

Calculated doses for comparison with limits resulting from discharges into the environment should be summed across all relevant pathways and food groups to ensure adequate protection. Current methodology for assessments used in the radioactivity in Food and the Environment (R.I.F.E.) reports separate doses from pathways related to liquid discharges of radioactivity to the environment from those due to gaseous releases. Surveys of local inhabitant food consumption and occupancy rates are conducted in the vicinity of nuclear sites. Information has been recorded in an integrated way, such that the data for each individual is recorded for all pathways of interest. These can include consumption of foods, such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs, fruit and vegetables, milk and meats. Occupancy times over beach sediments and time spent in close proximity to the site is also recorded for inclusion of external and inhalation radiation dose pathways. The integrated habits survey data may be combined with monitored environmental radionuclide concentrations to calculate total dose. The criteria for successful adoption of a method for this calculation were: Reproducibility can others easily use the approach and reassess doses? Rigour and realism how good is the match with reality?Transparency a measure of the ease with which others can understand how the calculations are performed and what they mean. Homogeneity is the group receiving the dose relatively homogeneous with respect to age, diet and those aspects that affect the dose received? Five methods of total dose calculation were compared and ranked according to their suitability. Each method was labelled (A to E) and given a short, relevant name for identification. The methods are described below; A) Individual doses to individuals are calculated and critical group selection is dependent on dose received. B) Individual Plus As in A, but consumption and occupancy rates for high dose is used to derive rates for application in

Low-dose extrapolation of radiation health risks: some implications of uncertainty for radiation protection at low doses.

Science.gov (United States)

Land, Charles E

2009-11-01

Ionizing radiation is a known and well-quantified human cancer risk factor, based on a remarkably consistent body of information from epidemiological studies of exposed populations. Typical examples of risk estimation include use of Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to estimate future risk from radiation-related cancer among American patients receiving multiple computed tomography scans, persons affected by radioactive fallout, or persons whose livelihoods involve some radiation exposure, such as x-ray technicians, interventional radiologists, or shipyard workers. Our estimates of radiation-related risk are uncertain, reflecting statistical variation and our imperfect understanding of crucial assumptions that must be made if we are to apply existing epidemiological data to particular situations. Fortunately, that uncertainty is also highly quantifiable, and can be presented concisely and transparently. Radiation protection is ultimately a political process that involves consent by stakeholders, a diverse group that includes people who might be expected to be risk-averse and concerned with plausible upper limits on risk (how bad could it be?), cost-averse and concerned with lower limits on risk (can you prove there is a nontrivial risk at current dose levels?), or combining both points of view. How radiation-related risk is viewed by individuals and population subgroups also depends very much on perception of related benefit, which might be (for example) medical, economic, altruistic, or nonexistent. The following presentation follows the lead of National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Commentary 14, NCRP Report 126, and later documents in treating radiation protection from the viewpoint of quantitative uncertainty analysis.

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)], E-mail: elin.svensson@chalmers.se; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

2009-03-15

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives.

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. A pulp mill example

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

2009-03-15

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives. (author)

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith

2009-01-01

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO 2 emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO 2 emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives

Climate change, uncertainty, and resilient fisheries: Institutional responses through integrative science

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miller, K.; Charles, A.; Barange, M.

2010-01-01

This paper explores the importance of a focus on the fundamental goals of resilience and adaptive capacity in the governance of uncertain fishery systems, particularly in the context of climate change. Climate change interacts strongly with fishery systems, and adds to the inherent uncertainty...... that understanding these aspects of fishery systems and fishery governance is valuable even in the absence of climate-induced processes of change, but that attention to climate change both reinforces the need for, and facilitates the move toward, implementation of integrative science for improved fishery governance....... and processes – to support suitable institutional responses, a broader planning perspective, and development of suitable resilience-building strategies. The paper explores how synergies between institutional change and integrative science can facilitate the development of more effective fisheries policy...

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Evaluation of mechanical precision and alignment uncertainties for an integrated CT/LINAC system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Court, Laurence; Rosen, Isaac; Mohan, Radhe; Dong Lei

2003-01-01

A new integrated CT/LINAC combination, in which the CT scanner is inside the radiation therapy treatment room and the same patient couch is used for CT scanning and treatment (after a 180-degree couch rotation), should allow for accurate correction of interfractional setup errors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sources of uncertainties, and to measure the overall precision of this system. The following sources of uncertainty were identified: (1) the patient couch position on the LINAC side after a rotation, (2) the patient couch position on the CT side after a rotation, (3) the patient couch position as indicated by its digital readout, (4) the difference in couch sag between the CT and LINAC positions, (5) the precision of the CT coordinates, (6) the identification of fiducial markers from CT images, (7) the alignment of contours with structures in the CT images, and (8) the alignment with setup lasers. The largest single uncertainties (one standard deviation or 1 SD) were found in couch position on the CT side after a rotation (0.5 mm in the RL direction) and the alignment of contours with the CT images (0.4 mm in the SI direction). All other sources of uncertainty are less than 0.3 mm (1 SD). The overall precision of two setup protocols was investigated in a controlled phantom study. A protocol that relies heavily on the mechanical integrity of the system, and assumes a fixed relationship between the LINAC isocenter and the CT images, gave a predicted precision (1 SD) of 0.6, 0.7, and 0.6 mm in the SI, RL and AP directions, respectively. The second protocol reduces reliance on the mechanical precision of the total system, particularly the patient couch, by using radio-opaque fiducial markers to transfer the isocenter information from the LINAC side to the CT images. This protocol gave a slightly improved predicted precision of 0.5, 0.4, and 0.4 mm in the SI, RL and AP directions, respectively. The distribution of phantom position after CT

Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

2009-10-09

We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

A new approach and computational algorithm for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for SED and SAD with applications to beryllium integral experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, P.M.; Youssef, M.Z.; Abdou, M.A.

1993-01-01

A new approach for treating the sensitivity and uncertainty in the secondary energy distribution (SED) and the secondary angular distribution (SAD) has been developed, and the existing two-dimensional sensitivity/uncertainty analysis code, FORSS, was expanded to incorporate the new approach. The calculational algorithm was applied to the 9 Be(n,2n) cross section to study the effect of the current uncertainties in the SED and SAD of neutrons emitted from this reaction on the prediction accuracy of the tritium production rate from 6 Li(T 6 ) and 7 Li(T 7 ) in an engineering-oriented fusion integral experiment of the US Department of Energy/Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute Collaborative Program on Fusion Neutronics in which beryllium was used as a neutron multiplier. In addition, the analysis was extended to include the uncertainties in the integrated smooth cross sections of beryllium and other materials that constituted the test assembly used in the experiment. This comprehensive two-dimensional cross-section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis aimed at identifying the sources of discrepancies between calculated and measured values for T 6 and T 7

Dose intercomparison studies for standardization of high-dose dosimetry in Viet Nam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mai Hoang Hoa; Duong Nguyen Dinh; Kojima, T.

1999-01-01

The Irradiation Center of the Vietnam Atomic Energy Commission (IC-VAEC) is planning to establish a traceability system for high-dose dosimetry and to provide high-dose standards as a secondary standard dosimetry laboratory (SSDL) level in Vietnam. For countries which do not have a standard dosimetry laboratory, the participation in the International Dose Assurance Service (IDAS) operated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the most common means to verify own dosimetry performance with a certain uncertainty. This is, however, only one-direction dose intercomparison with evaluation by IAEA including unknown parameter at participant laboratories. The SSDL level laboratory should have traceability as well as compatibility, ability to evaluate uncertainties of its own dosimetry performance by itself In the present paper, we reviewed our dosimetry performance through two-way dose intercomparison studies and self-evaluation of uncertainty in our dosimetry procedure. The performance of silver dichromate dosimeter as reference transfer dosimeter in IC-VAEC was studied through two-way blind dose intercomparison experiments between the IC-VAEC and JAERI. As another channel of dose intercomparison with IAEA, alanine dosimeters issued by IDAS were simultaneously irradiated with the IC-VAEC dichromate dosimeters at IC-VAEC and analyzed by IAEA. Dose intercomparison between IC-VAEC and JAERI results into a good agreement (better than ±2.5%), and IDAS results also show similar agreement within ±3.0%. The uncertainty was self-estimated on the basis of the JAERI alanine dosimetry, and a preliminary value of about 1.86% at a 68% confidence level is established. The results from these intercomparisons and our estimation of the uncertainty are consistent. We hope that our experience is valuable to other countries which do not have dosimetry standard laboratories and/or are planning to establish them. (author)

DITTY - a computer program for calculating population dose integrated over ten thousand years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Napier, B.A.; Peloquin, R.A.; Strenge, D.L.

1986-03-01

The computer program DITTY (Dose Integrated Over Ten Thousand Years) was developed to determine the collective dose from long term nuclear waste disposal sites resulting from the ground-water pathways. DITTY estimates the time integral of collective dose over a ten-thousand-year period for time-variant radionuclide releases to surface waters, wells, or the atmosphere. This document includes the following information on DITTY: a description of the mathematical models, program designs, data file requirements, input preparation, output interpretations, sample problems, and program-generated diagnostic messages

Integration method of 3D MR spectroscopy into treatment planning system for glioblastoma IMRT dose painting with integrated simultaneous boost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ken, Soléakhéna; Cassol, Emmanuelle; Delannes, Martine; Celsis, Pierre; Cohen-Jonathan, Elizabeth Moyal; Laprie, Anne; Vieillevigne, Laure; Franceries, Xavier; Simon, Luc; Supper, Caroline; Lotterie, Jean-Albert; Filleron, Thomas; Lubrano, Vincent; Berry, Isabelle

2013-01-01

To integrate 3D MR spectroscopy imaging (MRSI) in the treatment planning system (TPS) for glioblastoma dose painting to guide simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). For sixteen glioblastoma patients, we have simulated three types of dosimetry plans, one conventional plan of 60-Gy in 3D conformational radiotherapy (3D-CRT), one 60-Gy plan in IMRT and one 72-Gy plan in SIB-IMRT. All sixteen MRSI metabolic maps were integrated into TPS, using normalization with color-space conversion and threshold-based segmentation. The fusion between the metabolic maps and the planning CT scans were assessed. Dosimetry comparisons were performed between the different plans of 60-Gy 3D-CRT, 60-Gy IMRT and 72-Gy SIB-IMRT, the last plan was targeted on MRSI abnormalities and contrast enhancement (CE). Fusion assessment was performed for 160 transformations. It resulted in maximum differences <1.00 mm for translation parameters and ≤1.15° for rotation. Dosimetry plans of 72-Gy SIB-IMRT and 60-Gy IMRT showed a significantly decreased maximum dose to the brainstem (44.00 and 44.30 vs. 57.01 Gy) and decreased high dose-volumes to normal brain (19 and 20 vs. 23% and 7 and 7 vs. 12%) compared to 60-Gy 3D-CRT (p < 0.05). Delivering standard doses to conventional target and higher doses to new target volumes characterized by MRSI and CE is now possible and does not increase dose to organs at risk. MRSI and CE abnormalities are now integrated for glioblastoma SIB-IMRT, concomitant with temozolomide, in an ongoing multi-institutional phase-III clinical trial. Our method of MR spectroscopy maps integration to TPS is robust and reliable; integration to neuronavigation systems with this method could also improve glioblastoma resection or guide biopsies

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Villemereuil Pierre de

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

Latent uncertainties of the precalculated track Monte Carlo method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renaud, Marc-André; Seuntjens, Jan [Medical Physics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1A4 (Canada); Roberge, David [Département de radio-oncologie, Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec H2L 4M1 (Canada)

2015-01-15

Purpose: While significant progress has been made in speeding up Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation methods, they remain too time-consuming for the purpose of inverse planning. To achieve clinically usable calculation speeds, a precalculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport was developed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs). The algorithm utilizes pregenerated particle track data from conventional MC codes for different materials such as water, bone, and lung to produce dose distributions in voxelized phantoms. While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from the limited number of unique tracks in the pregenerated track bank is missing from the paper. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal number of tracks in the pregenerated track bank can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pregenerated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4 and saved in a database. The PMC algorithm for track selection, rotation, and transport was implemented on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) 4.0 programming framework. PMC dose distributions were calculated in a variety of media and compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated from the corresponding general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty metric was defined and analysis was performed by varying the pregenerated track bank size and the number of simulated primary particle histories and comparing dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark dose distribution calculated to 0.04% average uncertainty in voxels with dose greater than 20% of D{sub max}. Efficiency metrics were calculated against benchmark MC codes on a single CPU core with no variance reduction. Results: Dose distributions generated using PMC and benchmark MC codes were compared and found to be within 2% of each other in voxels with dose values greater than 20% of

Latent uncertainties of the precalculated track Monte Carlo method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud, Marc-André; Seuntjens, Jan; Roberge, David

2015-01-01

Purpose: While significant progress has been made in speeding up Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation methods, they remain too time-consuming for the purpose of inverse planning. To achieve clinically usable calculation speeds, a precalculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport was developed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs). The algorithm utilizes pregenerated particle track data from conventional MC codes for different materials such as water, bone, and lung to produce dose distributions in voxelized phantoms. While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from the limited number of unique tracks in the pregenerated track bank is missing from the paper. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal number of tracks in the pregenerated track bank can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pregenerated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4 and saved in a database. The PMC algorithm for track selection, rotation, and transport was implemented on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) 4.0 programming framework. PMC dose distributions were calculated in a variety of media and compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated from the corresponding general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty metric was defined and analysis was performed by varying the pregenerated track bank size and the number of simulated primary particle histories and comparing dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark dose distribution calculated to 0.04% average uncertainty in voxels with dose greater than 20% of D max . Efficiency metrics were calculated against benchmark MC codes on a single CPU core with no variance reduction. Results: Dose distributions generated using PMC and benchmark MC codes were compared and found to be within 2% of each other in voxels with dose values greater than 20% of the

Data integration reveals key homeostatic mechanisms following low dose radiation exposure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tilton, Susan C.; Matzke, Melissa M. [Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99338 (United States); Sowa, Marianne B.; Stenoien, David L.; Weber, Thomas J. [Health Impacts and Exposure Science, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99338 (United States); Morgan, William F. [Biological Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99338 (United States); Waters, Katrina M., E-mail: katrina.waters@pnnl.gov [Biological Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99338 (United States)

2015-05-15

The goal of this study was to define pathways regulated by low dose radiation to understand how biological systems respond to subtle perturbations in their environment and prioritize pathways for human health assessment. Using an in vitro 3-D human full thickness skin model, we have examined the temporal response of dermal and epidermal layers to 10 cGy X-ray using transcriptomic, proteomic, phosphoproteomic and metabolomic platforms. Bioinformatics analysis of each dataset independently revealed potential signaling mechanisms affected by low dose radiation, and integrating data shed additional insight into the mechanisms regulating low dose responses in human tissue. We examined direct interactions among datasets (top down approach) and defined several hubs as significant regulators, including transcription factors (YY1, MYC and CREB1), kinases (CDK2, PLK1) and a protease (MMP2). These data indicate a shift in response across time — with an increase in DNA repair, tissue remodeling and repression of cell proliferation acutely (24–72 h). Pathway-based integration (bottom up approach) identified common molecular and pathway responses to low dose radiation, including oxidative stress, nitric oxide signaling and transcriptional regulation through the SP1 factor that would not have been identified by the individual data sets. Significant regulation of key downstream metabolites of nitrative stress was measured within these pathways. Among the features identified in our study, the regulation of MMP2 and SP1 was experimentally validated. Our results demonstrate the advantage of data integration to broadly define the pathways and networks that represent the mechanisms by which complex biological systems respond to perturbation. - Highlights: • Low dose ionizing radiation altered homeostasis in 3D skin tissue model. • Global gene/protein/metabolite data integrated using complementary statistical approaches • Time and location-specific change in matrix regulation

DS02 uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

2005-01-01

In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

The effect of source-axis distance on integral dose: implications for IMRT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keall, P.

2001-01-01

The source-axis distance (SAD) is a treatment machine design parameter that affects integral dose, dose rate and patient clearance. The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of source-axis distance on integral dose for conformal arc therapy. This work is part of a larger project to determine the ideal characteristics of a dedicated IMRT machine. The sensitivity of SAD to beam energy, PTV size, body size and PTV position were determined for conformal arc therapy. For the calculations performed here it was assumed that dose equals terma. The integral dose ratio (IDR) was used to quantify the calculation results. It was found that the IDR increases as both SAD and photon energy increase, though the dependence of IDR on SAD decreases as energy increases. The PTV size was found to have a negligible effect on the relationship between the SAD and IDR, however the body size does affect the relationship between the SAD and IDR. The position of the PTV within the body also affects the IDR. From dosimetric considerations alone, the larger the SAD, the better the possible dose distribution. The IDR for a very large SAD is increased by approximately 5% when compared with the IDR for 100 cm SAD. Similarly, the IDR for 100 cm SAD is approximately 5% higher than the IDR at 50 cm SAD. Copyright (2001) Australasian College of Physical Scientists and Engineers in Medicine

Toward adaptive radiotherapy for head and neck patients: Uncertainties in dose warping due to the choice of deformable registration algorithm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veiga, Catarina, E-mail: catarina.veiga.11@ucl.ac.uk; Royle, Gary [Radiation Physics Group, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Lourenço, Ana Mónica [Radiation Physics Group, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom and Acoustics and Ionizing Radiation Team, National Physical Laboratory, Teddington TW11 0LW (United Kingdom); Mouinuddin, Syed [Department of Radiotherapy, University College London Hospital, London NW1 2BU (United Kingdom); Herk, Marcel van [Department of Radiation Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam 1066 CX (Netherlands); Modat, Marc; Ourselin, Sébastien; McClelland, Jamie R. [Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

2015-02-15

Purpose: The aims of this work were to evaluate the performance of several deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms implemented in our in-house software (NiftyReg) and the uncertainties inherent to using different algorithms for dose warping. Methods: The authors describe a DIR based adaptive radiotherapy workflow, using CT and cone-beam CT (CBCT) imaging. The transformations that mapped the anatomy between the two time points were obtained using four different DIR approaches available in NiftyReg. These included a standard unidirectional algorithm and more sophisticated bidirectional ones that encourage or ensure inverse consistency. The forward (CT-to-CBCT) deformation vector fields (DVFs) were used to propagate the CT Hounsfield units and structures to the daily geometry for “dose of the day” calculations, while the backward (CBCT-to-CT) DVFs were used to remap the dose of the day onto the planning CT (pCT). Data from five head and neck patients were used to evaluate the performance of each implementation based on geometrical matching, physical properties of the DVFs, and similarity between warped dose distributions. Geometrical matching was verified in terms of dice similarity coefficient (DSC), distance transform, false positives, and false negatives. The physical properties of the DVFs were assessed calculating the harmonic energy, determinant of the Jacobian, and inverse consistency error of the transformations. Dose distributions were displayed on the pCT dose space and compared using dose difference (DD), distance to dose difference, and dose volume histograms. Results: All the DIR algorithms gave similar results in terms of geometrical matching, with an average DSC of 0.85 ± 0.08, but the underlying properties of the DVFs varied in terms of smoothness and inverse consistency. When comparing the doses warped by different algorithms, we found a root mean square DD of 1.9% ± 0.8% of the prescribed dose (pD) and that an average of 9% ± 4% of

Uncertainty estimates for predictions of the impact of breeder-reactor radionuclide releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, C.W.; Little, C.A.

1982-01-01

This paper summarizes estimates, compiled in a larger report, of the uncertainty associated with models and parameters used to assess the impact on man radionuclide releases to the environment by breeder reactor facilities. These estimates indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may reasonably be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under such circumstances. However, even using site-specific information, inherent natural variability within human receptors, and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose following short-term releases

A model for optimization of process integration investments under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

2011-01-01

The long-term economic outcome of energy-related industrial investment projects is difficult to evaluate because of uncertain energy market conditions. In this article, a general, multistage, stochastic programming model for the optimization of investments in process integration and industrial energy technologies is proposed. The problem is formulated as a mixed-binary linear programming model where uncertainties are modelled using a scenario-based approach. The objective is to maximize the expected net present value of the investments which enables heat savings and decreased energy imports or increased energy exports at an industrial plant. The proposed modelling approach enables a long-term planning of industrial, energy-related investments through the simultaneous optimization of immediate and later decisions. The stochastic programming approach is also suitable for modelling what is possibly complex process integration constraints. The general model formulation presented here is a suitable basis for more specialized case studies dealing with optimization of investments in energy efficiency. -- Highlights: → Stochastic programming approach to long-term planning of process integration investments. → Extensive mathematical model formulation. → Multi-stage investment decisions and scenario-based modelling of uncertain energy prices. → Results illustrate how investments made now affect later investment and operation opportunities. → Approach for evaluation of robustness with respect to variations in probability distribution.

Required accuracy and dose thresholds in individual monitoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, P.; Griffith, R.V.

1994-01-01

this uncertainty factor, a value of 21% can be evaluated for the allowable maximum overall standard deviation for dose measurements at dose levels near the annual dose limits increasing to 45% for dose levels at the lower end of the dose range required to be monitored. A method is described for evaluating...... the overall standard deviation of the dosimetry system by combining random and systematic uncertainties in quadrature, and procedures are also given for determining each individual uncertainty connected to the dose measurement. In particular, attention is paid to the evaluation of the combined uncertainty due...... to energy and angular dependencies of the dosemeter. In type testing of personal dosimetry systems, the estimated overall standard deviation of the dosimetry system is the main parameter to be tested. An important characteristic of a personal dosimetry system is its capability of measuring low doses...

Integration of models for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Napier, B.A.

1991-01-01

The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The objective of phase 1 of the project was to demonstrate through calculations that adequate models and support data exist or could be developed to allow realistic estimations of doses to individuals from releases of radionuclides to the environment that occurred as long as 45 years ago. Much of the data used in phase 1 was preliminary; therefore, the doses calculated must be considered preliminary approximations. This paper describes the integration of various models that was implemented for initial computer calculations. Models were required for estimating the quantity of radioactive material released, for evaluating its transport through the environment, for estimating human exposure, and for evaluating resultant doses

MELODI: The 'Multidisciplinary European Low-Dose Initiative'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belli, M.; Salomaa, S.; Ottolenghi, A.

2011-01-01

The importance of research to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment of low and protracted exposures is now recognised globally. In Europe a new initiative, called 'Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative' (MELODI), has been proposed by a 'European High Level and Expert Group on low-dose risk research' (www.hleg.de), aimed at integrating national and EC (Euratom) efforts. Five national organisations: BfS (DE), CEA (FR), IRSN (FR), ISS (IT) and STUK (FI), with the support of the EC, have initiated the creation of MELODI by signing a letter of intent. In the forthcoming years, MELODI will integrate in a step-by-step approach EU institutions with significant programmes in the field and will be open to other scientific organisations and stakeholders. A key role of MELODI is to develop and maintain over time a strategic research agenda (SRA) and a road map of scientific priorities within a multidisciplinary approach, and to transfer the results for the radiation protection system. Under the coordination of STUK a network has been proposed in the 2009 Euratom Programme, called DoReMi (Low-Dose Research towards Multidisciplinary Integration), which can help the integration process within the MELODI platform. DoReMi and the First MELODI Open Workshop, organised by BfS in September 2009, are now important inputs for the European SRA. (authors)

Enchanced total dose damage in junction field effect transistors and related linear integrated circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flament, O.; Autran, J.L.; Roche, P.; Leray, J.L.; Musseau, O.

1996-01-01

Enhanced total dose damage of Junction Field-effect Transistors (JFETs) due to low dose rate and/or elevated temperature has been investigated for elementary p-channel structures fabricated on bulk and SOI substrates as well as for related linear integrated circuits. All these devices were fabricated with conventional junction isolation (field oxide). Large increases in damage have been revealed by performing high temperature and/or low dose rate irradiations. These results are consistent with previous studies concerning bipolar field oxides under low-field conditions. They suggest that the transport of radiation-induced holes through the oxide is the underlying mechanism. Such an enhanced degradation must be taken into account for low dose rate effects on linear integrated circuits

Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F.; Diallo, I.; Samand, A.; Hawkins, M.; Oberlin, O.; Lefkopoulos, D.

2006-01-01

In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)

Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Diallo, I.; Samand, A. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif, (France); Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Hawkins, M. [Centre for Childhood Cancer Survivor Studies, University of Birmingham, Birmingham (United Kingdom); Oberlin, O. [Paediatrics Department, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Lefkopoulos, D. [Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France)

2006-07-01

In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)

Assessment of Uncertainties in Treatment Planning for Scanned Ion Beam Therapy of Moving Tumors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hild, Sebastian; Durante, Marco; Bert, Christoph

2013-01-01

Purpose: To provide methods for quantification of uncertainties in 4-dimensional (4D) treatment during treatment planning. Methods and Materials: Uncertainty information was generated by multiple 4D treatment simulations with varying parameters. Sampled data were analyzed using uncertainty visualization methods that have been added to common treatment plan evaluation methods (eg, dose-volume histogram and dose distribution analysis). To illustrate the potential of the introduced methods, uncertainty analysis was completed for a single lung cancer case using 3 motion mitigation techniques: gating, slice-by-slice rescanning, and breath-controlled rescanning. Results: By repeating 4D dose calculations with varying parameters, we were able to show local uncertainties in dose distributions and to evaluate the stability of treatment setups. The new methods were found suitable for uncertainty evaluation in 4D treatment planning of moving tumors. Calculation time of the uncertainty base data was time consuming but contrivable overnight. Conclusions: Uncertainty analysis and visualization for 4D treatment planning provide an important tool in the decision process for an optimal treatment approach.

RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

2015-11-30

This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Webster, Mort David [MIT

2015-03-10

This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

Perspectives on dosimetric uncertainties and radiological assessments of radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, G.M.; Pinedo, P.; Cancio, D.

1997-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to raise some issues concerning uncertainties in the estimation of doses of ionizing radiation arising from waste management practices and the contribution to those uncertainties arising from dosimetry modelling. The intentions are: (a) to provide perspective on the relative uncertainties in the different aspects of radiological assessments of waste management; (b) to give pointers as to where resources could best be targeted as regards reduction in overall uncertainties; and (c) to provide regulatory insight to decisions on low dose management as related to waste management practices. (author)

An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2015-04-01

The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathaniel K. Newlands

2014-06-01

Full Text Available We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables and remotely-sensed indices. The method devises a multivariate statistical model to compute bias and uncertainty in forecasted yield at the Census of Agricultural Region (CAR scale across the Canadian Prairies. The method uses robust variable-selection to select the best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation and random forest-tree machine learning techniques are then integrated to generate sequential forecasts through the growing season. Cross-validation of the model was performed by hindcasting/backcasting it and comparing its forecasts against available historical data (1987-2011 for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.. The model was also validated for the 2012 growing season by comparing its forecast skill at the CAR, provincial and Canadian Prairie region scales against available statistical survey data. Mean percent departures between wheat yield forecasted were under-estimated by 1-4 % in mid-season and over-estimated by 1 % at the end of the growing season. This integrated methodology offers a consistent, generalizable approach for sequentially forecasting crop yield at the regional-scale. It provides a statistically robust, yet flexible way to concurrently adjust to data-rich and data-sparse situations, adaptively select different predictors of yield to changing levels of environmental uncertainty, and to update forecasts sequentially so as to incorporate new data as it becomes available. This integrated method also provides additional statistical support for assessing the accuracy and reliability of model-based crop yield forecasts in time and space.

Uncertainty reduction of gravity and magnetic inversion through the integration of petrophysical constraints and geological data

Science.gov (United States)

Giraud, Jérémie; Jessell, Mark; Lindsay, Mark; Martin, Roland; Pakyuz-Charrier, Evren; Ogarko, Vitaliy

2016-04-01

We introduce and test a workflow that integrates petrophysical constraints and geological data in geophysical inversion to decrease the uncertainty and non-uniqueness of the results. We show that the integration of geological information and petrophysical constraints in geophysical inversion can improve inversion results in terms of both uncertainty reduction and resolution. This workflow uses statistical petrophysical properties to constrain the values retrieved by the geophysical inversion and geological prior information to decrease the effect of non-uniqueness. Surface geological data are used to generate geological models as a source of geometrical prior information. Petrophysical measurements are used to derive the statistical laws used for the petrophysical constraints. We integrate the different sources of information in a Bayesian framework, which will take into account these states of information. This permits us to quantify the posterior state of knowledge, the reduction of the uncertainty and to calculate the influence of prior information. To quantify the influence of petrophysical constraints and geological data we compare results obtained with several levels of constraints. We start by inverting data without petrophysical constraints and geological prior information. Then, we add petrophysical constraints before using geological prior information. The results of the inversion are characterized using fixed-point statistics. Various indicators such as model and data misfits, resolution matrices and statistical fit to the petrophysical data are calculated. The resolution matrices are used to plot sensitivity maps. We calculate the posterior covariance matrices to estimate the uncertainty of the model. This workflow was first tested using very simple synthetic datasets before using a subset of the Mansfield area data (Victoria, Australia). The geological model is derived from geological field data. We simulate petrophysical properties based on field

Integrated Task Plans for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, FY 1992 through May 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipler, D.B.

1992-09-01

The purpose of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is to estimate radiation doses from Hanford Site operations since 1944 to populations and individuals. The primary objective of work to be performed through May 1994 is to (1) determine the project's appropriate scope (space, time, radionuclides, pathways and individuals/population groups), (2) determine the project's appropriate level of accuracy (level of uncertainty in dose estimates) for the project, (3) complete model and data development, and (4) estimate doses for the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study (HTDS), representative individuals, and special populations as described herein. The plan for FY 1992 through May 1994 has been prepared based on activities and budgets approved by the Technical Steering Panel (TSP) at its meetings on August 19--20, 1991, and April 23--25, 1992. The activities can be divided into four broad categories: (1) model and data evaluation activities, (2)additional dose estimates, (3) model and data development activities, and (4)technical and communication support

Time-integrated thyroid dose for accidental releases from Pakistan Research Reactor-1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raza, S Shoaib; Iqbal, M; Salahuddin, A; Avila, R; Pervez, S

2004-01-01

The two-hourly time-integrated thyroid dose due to radio-iodines released to the atmosphere through the exhaust stack of Pakistan Research Reactor-1 (PARR-1), under accident conditions, has been calculated. A computer program, PAKRAD (which was developed under an IAEA research grant, PAK/RCA/8990), was used for the dose calculations. The sensitivity of the dose results to different exhaust flow rates and atmospheric stability classes was studied. The effect of assuming a constant activity concentration (as a function of time) within the containment air volume and an exponentially decreasing air concentration on the time-integrated dose was also studied for various flow rates (1000-50,000 m 3 h -1 ). The comparison indicated that the results were insensitive to the containment air exhaust rates up to or below 2000 m 3 h -1 , when the prediction with the constant activity concentration assumption was compared to an exponentially decreasing activity concentration model. The results also indicated that the plume touchdown distance increases with increasing atmospheric stability. (note)

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

2017-12-01

Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

Integration of QFD, AHP, and LPP methods in supplier development problems under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Shad, Zahra; Roghanian, Emad; Mojibian, Fatemeh

2014-04-01

Quality function deployment (QFD) is a customer-driven approach, widely used to develop or process new product to maximize customer satisfaction. Last researches used linear physical programming (LPP) procedure to optimize QFD; however, QFD issue involved uncertainties, or fuzziness, which requires taking them into account for more realistic study. In this paper, a set of fuzzy data is used to address linguistic values parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. Proposed integrated approach including analytic hierarchy process (AHP), QFD, and LPP to maximize overall customer satisfaction under uncertain conditions and apply them in the supplier development problem. The fuzzy AHP approach is adopted as a powerful method to obtain the relationship between the customer requirements and engineering characteristics (ECs) to construct house of quality in QFD method. LPP is used to obtain the optimal achievement level of the ECs and subsequently the customer satisfaction level under different degrees of uncertainty. The effectiveness of proposed method will be illustrated by an example.

Radiation quality and effective dose equivalent of alpha particles from radon decay products indoors: uncertainties in risk estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Al-Affan, I.A. (Velindre Hospital, Whitchurch, Cardiff (United Kingdom))

1994-01-01

In order to make a better estimate of cancer risk due to radon the radiation quality of alpha particles emitted from the element and its daughters has been re-assessed. In particular, uncertainties in all components involved in the calculations of the effective dose E, have been investigated. This has been done in the light of the recent draft report of the ICRU on quantities and units for use in radiation protection (Allisy et al (1991) ICRU NEWS 2). On the assumption of an indoor radon concentration of 30 Bq.m[sup -3], microdose spectra have been calculated for alpha particles hitting lung cells at different depths. Then the mean quality factor Q-bar in the lung, dose equivalent H[sub T] to the lung and the effective dose have been calculated. A comparison between lung cancer risk from radon and that arising from diagnostic X rays to the chest is made. A suggestion to make the lung weighting factor w[sub T] a function of the fraction of lung cells hit is discussed. (Author).

Committed dose equivalent in the practice of radiological protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nenot, J.C.; Piechowski, J.

1985-01-01

In the case of internal exposure, the dose is not received at the moment of exposure, as happens with external exposure, since the incorporated radionuclide irradiates the various organs and tissues during the time it is present in the body. By definition, the committed dose equivalent corresponds to the received dose integrated over 50 years from the date of intake. In order to calculate it, one has to know the intake activity and the value of the committed dose equivalent per unit of intake activity. The uncertainties of the first parameter are such that the committed dose equivalent can only be regarded as an order of magnitude and not as a very accurate quantity. The use of it is justified, however, for, like the dose equivalent for external exposure, it expresses the risk of stochastic effects for the individual concerned since these effects, should they appear, would do so only after a latent period which is generally longer than the dose integration time. Moreover, the use of the committed dose equivalent offers certain advantages for dosimetric management, especially when it is simplified. A practical problem which may arise is that the annual dose limit is apparently exceeded by virtue of the fact that one is taking account, in the first year, of doses which will actually be received only in the following years. These problems are rare enough in practice to be dealt with individually in each case. (author)

Review of uncertainty estimates associated with models for assessing the impact of breeder reactor radioactivity releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, C.; Little, C.A.

1982-08-01

The purpose is to summarize estimates based on currently available data of the uncertainty associated with radiological assessment models. The models being examined herein are those recommended previously for use in breeder reactor assessments. Uncertainty estimates are presented for models of atmospheric and hydrologic transport, terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and internal and external dosimetry. Both long-term and short-term release conditions are discussed. The uncertainty estimates presented in this report indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, especially those from breeder reactors located in sites dominated by complex terrain and/or coastal meteorology, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under these circumstances to reduce this uncertainty. However, even using site-specific information, natural variability and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose or concentration in environmental media following shortterm releases

An evaluation of uncertainties in radioecological models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffmann, F.O.; Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Rupp, E.M.; Shor, R.W.; Schaeffer, D.L.; Baes, C.F. III

1978-01-01

The paper presents results of analyses for seven selected parameters commonly used in environmental radiological assessment models, assuming that the available data are representative of the true distribution of parameter values and that their respective distributions are lognormal. Estimates of the most probable, median, mean, and 99th percentile for each parameter are fiven and compared to U.S. NRC default values. The regulatory default values are generally greater than the median values for the selected parameters, but some are associated with percentiles significantly less than the 50th. The largest uncertainties appear to be associated with aquatic bioaccumulation factors for fresh water fish. Approximately one order of magnitude separates median values and values of the 99th percentile. The uncertainty is also estimated for the annual dose rate predicted by a multiplicative chain model for the transport of molecular iodine-131 via the air-pasture-cow-milk-child's thyroid pathway. The value for the 99th percentile is ten times larger than the median value of the predicted dose normalized for a given air concentration of 131 I 2 . About 72% of the uncertainty in this model is contributed by the dose conversion factor and the milk transfer coefficient. Considering the difficulties in obtaining a reliable quantification of the true uncertainties in model predictions, methods for taking these uncertainties into account when determining compliance with regulatory statutes are discussed. (orig./HP) [de

Insights into water managers' perception and handling of uncertainties - a study of the role of uncertainty in practitioners' planning and decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Höllermann, Britta; Evers, Mariele

2017-04-01

Planning and decision-making under uncertainty is common in water management due to climate variability, simplified models, societal developments, planning restrictions just to name a few. Dealing with uncertainty can be approached from two sites, hereby affecting the process and form of communication: Either improve the knowledge base by reducing uncertainties or apply risk-based approaches to acknowledge uncertainties throughout the management process. Current understanding is that science more strongly focusses on the former approach, while policy and practice are more actively applying a risk-based approach to handle incomplete and/or ambiguous information. The focus of this study is on how water managers perceive and handle uncertainties at the knowledge/decision interface in their daily planning and decision-making routines. How they evaluate the role of uncertainties for their decisions and how they integrate this information into the decision-making process. Expert interviews and questionnaires among practitioners and scientists provided an insight into their perspectives on uncertainty handling allowing a comparison of diverse strategies between science and practice as well as between different types of practitioners. Our results confirmed the practitioners' bottom up approach from potential measures upwards instead of impact assessment downwards common in science-based approaches. This science-practice gap may hinder effective uncertainty integration and acknowledgement in final decisions. Additionally, the implementation of an adaptive and flexible management approach acknowledging uncertainties is often stalled by rigid regulations favouring a predict-and-control attitude. However, the study showed that practitioners' level of uncertainty recognition varies with respect to his or her affiliation to type of employer and business unit, hence, affecting the degree of the science-practice-gap with respect to uncertainty recognition. The level of working

Impact of geometric uncertainties on evaluation of treatment techniques for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Craig, Tim; Wong, Eugene; Bauman, Glenn; Battista, Jerry; Van Dyk, Jake

2005-01-01

Purpose: To assess the impact of patient repositioning and internal organ motion on prostate treatment plans using three-dimensional conformal and intensity-modulated radiotherapy. Methods and materials: Four-field, six-field, and simplified intensity-modulated arc therapy plans were generated for 5 prostate cancer patients. The planning target volume was created by adding a 1-cm margin to the clinical target volume. A convolution model was used to estimate the effect of random geometric uncertainties during treatment. Dose statistics, tumor control probabilities, and normal tissue complication probabilities were compared with and without the presence of uncertainty. The impact of systematic uncertainties was also investigated. Results: Compared with the planned treatments, the delivered dose distribution with random geometric uncertainties displayed an increase in the apparent minimal dose to the prostate and seminal vesicles and a decrease in the rectal volume receiving a high dose. This increased the tumor control probabilities and decreased the normal tissue complication probabilities. Changes were seen in the percentage of prostate volume receiving 100% and 95% of the prescribed dose, and the minimal dose and tumor control probabilities for the target volume. In addition, the volume receiving at least 65 Gy, the minimal dose, and normal tissue complication probabilities changed considerably for the rectum. The simplified intensity-modulated arc therapy technique was the most sensitive to systematic errors, especially in the anterior-posterior and superior-inferior directions. Conclusion: Geometric uncertainties should be considered when evaluating treatment plans. Contrary to the widely held belief, increased conformation of the dose distribution is not always associated with increased sensitivity to random geometric uncertainties if a sufficient planning target volume margin is used. Systematic errors may have a variable effect, depending on the treatment

Role of calibration, validation, and relevance in multi-level uncertainty integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Chenzhao; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

Calibration of model parameters is an essential step in predicting the response of a complicated system, but the lack of data at the system level makes it impossible to conduct this quantification directly. In such a situation, system model parameters are estimated using tests at lower levels of complexity which share the same model parameters with the system. For such a multi-level problem, this paper proposes a methodology to quantify the uncertainty in the system level prediction by integrating calibration, validation and sensitivity analysis at different levels. The proposed approach considers the validity of the models used for parameter estimation at lower levels, as well as the relevance at the lower level to the prediction at the system level. The model validity is evaluated using a model reliability metric, and models with multivariate output are considered. The relevance is quantified by comparing Sobol indices at the lower level and system level, thus measuring the extent to which a lower level test represents the characteristics of the system so that the calibration results can be reliably used in the system level. Finally the results of calibration, validation and relevance analysis are integrated in a roll-up method to predict the system output. - Highlights: • Relevance analysis to quantify the closeness of two models. • Stochastic model reliability metric to integrate multiple validation experiments. • Extend the model reliability metric to deal with multivariate output. • Roll-up formula to integrate calibration, validation, and relevance.

Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

Science.gov (United States)

Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

2018-05-01

Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

Uncertainty and global climate change research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

1994-06-01

The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

2018-01-01

An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

Uncertainty on faecal analysis on dose assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Juliao, Ligia M.Q.C.; Melo, Dunstana R.; Sousa, Wanderson de O.; Santos, Maristela S.; Fernandes, Paulo Cesar P. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria, Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear, Av. Salvador Allende s/n. Via 9, Recreio, CEP 22780-160, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2007-07-01

Monitoring programmes for internal dose assessment may need to have a combination of bioassay techniques, e.g. urine and faecal analysis, especially in workplaces where compounds of different solubilities are handled and also in cases of accidental intakes. Faecal analysis may be an important data for assessment of committed effective dose due to exposure to insoluble compounds, since the activity excreted by urine may not be detectable, unless a very sensitive measurement system is available. This paper discusses the variability of the daily faecal excretion based on data from just one daily collection; collection during three consecutive days: samples analysed individually and samples analysed as a pool. The results suggest that just 1 d collection is not appropriate for dose assessment, since the 24 h uranium excretion may vary by a factor of 40. On the basis of this analysis, the recommendation should be faecal collection during three consecutive days, and samples analysed as a pool, it is more economic and faster. (authors)

Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Qiuwen, E-mail: qchen@rcees.ac.cn [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China); China Three Gorges University, Daxuelu 8, Yichang 443002 (China); CEER, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Guangzhoulu 223, Nanjing 210029 (China); Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China)

2014-06-01

Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004–2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial–temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial–temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. - Highlights: • An innovative method is developed to analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. • The algal blooms in Taihu Lake showed obvious spatial and temporal patterns. • The lake is mainly characterized as moderate bloom but with high uncertainty. • Severe bloom with low uncertainty appeared occasionally in the northwest part. • The results provide important information to bloom monitoring and management.

The sensitivity of calculated doses to critical assumptions for the offsite consequences of nuclear power reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, M.P.; Scherpelz, R.I.; Desrosiers, A.E.

1982-01-01

This work analyzes the sensitivity of calculated doses to critical assumptions for offsite consequences following a PWR-2 accident at a nuclear power reactor. The calculations include three radiation dose pathways: internal dose resulting from inhalation, external doses from exposure to the plume, and external doses from exposure to contaminated ground. The critical parameters are the time period of integration for internal dose commitment and the duration of residence on contaminated ground. The data indicate the calculated offsite whole body dose will vary by as much as 600% depending upon the parameters assumed. When offsite radiation doses determine the size of emergency planning zones, this uncertainty has significant effect upon the resources allocated to emergency preparedness

Uncertainties in Organ Burdens Estimated from PAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

La Bone, T.R.

2004-01-01

To calculate committed effective dose equivalent, one needs to know the quantity of the radionuclide in all significantly irradiated organs (the organ burden) as a function of time following the intake. There are two major sources of uncertainty in an organ burden estimated from personal air sampling (PAS) data: (1) The uncertainty in going from the exposure measured with the PAS to the quantity of aerosol inhaled by the individual, and (2) The uncertainty in going from the intake to the organ burdens at any given time, taking into consideration the biological variability of the biokinetic models from person to person (interperson variability) and in one person over time (intra-person variability). We have been using biokinetic modeling methods developed by researchers at the University of Florida to explore the impact of inter-person variability on the uncertainty of organ burdens estimated from PAS data. These initial studies suggest that the uncertainties are so large that PAS might be considered to be a qualitative (rather than quantitative) technique. These results indicate that more studies should be performed to properly classify the reliability and usefulness of using PAS monitoring data to estimate organ burdens, organ dose, and ultimately CEDE

Passive Rn dose meters - measuring methods appropriate for large measurement series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urban, M.; Kiefer, H.

1985-01-01

Passive integrating measuring methods can be classified in several groups by their functioning principle, e.g. spray chambers or open chambers with nuclear trace detectors or TL detectors, open detectors, activated carbon dose meters with or without TL detectors. According to the functioning principle, only radon or radon and fission products can be detected. The lecture gives a survey of the present state of development of passive Rn dose meters. By the example of the Ra dose meter developed at Karlsruhe which was used in inquiry measurements carried out in Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria, etching technology, estimation of measuring uncertainties, reproducibility and fading behaviour shall be discussed. (orig./HP) [de

WE-B-19A-01: SRT II: Uncertainties in SRT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dieterich, S; Schlesinger, D; Geneser, S

2014-01-01

SRS delivery has undergone major technical changes in the last decade, transitioning from predominantly frame-based treatment delivery to imageguided, frameless SRS. It is important for medical physicists working in SRS to understand the magnitude and sources of uncertainty involved in delivering SRS treatments for a multitude of technologies (Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, linac-based SRS and protons). Sources of SRS planning and delivery uncertainty include dose calculation, dose fusion, and intra- and inter-fraction motion. Dose calculations for small fields are particularly difficult because of the lack of electronic equilibrium and greater effect of inhomogeneities within and near the PTV. Going frameless introduces greater setup uncertainties that allows for potentially increased intra- and interfraction motion, The increased use of multiple imaging modalities to determine the tumor volume, necessitates (deformable) image and contour fusion, and the resulting uncertainties introduced in the image registration process further contribute to overall treatment planning uncertainties. Each of these uncertainties must be quantified and their impact on treatment delivery accuracy understood. If necessary, the uncertainties may then be accounted for during treatment planning either through techniques to make the uncertainty explicit, or by the appropriate addition of PTV margins. Further complicating matters, the statistics of 1-5 fraction SRS treatments differ from traditional margin recipes relying on Poisson statistics. In this session, we will discuss uncertainties introduced during each step of the SRS treatment planning and delivery process and present margin recipes to appropriately account for such uncertainties. Learning Objectives: To understand the major contributors to the total delivery uncertainty in SRS for Gamma Knife, CyberKnife, and linac-based SRS. Learn the various uncertainties introduced by image fusion, deformable image registration, and contouring

Uncertainty analysis for secondary energy distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstl, S.A.W.

1978-01-01

In many transport calculations the integral design parameter of interest (response) is determined mainly by secondary particles such as gamma rays from (n,γ) reactions or secondary neutrons from inelastic scattering events or (n,2n) reactions. Standard sensitivity analysis usually allows to calculate the sensitivities to the production cross sections of such secondaries, but an extended formalism is needed to also obtain the sensitivities to the energy distribution of the generated secondary particles. For a 30-group standard cross-section set 84% of all non-zero table positions pertain to the description of secondary energy distributions (SED's) and only 16% to the actual reaction cross sections. Therefore, any sensitivity/uncertainty analysis which does not consider the effects of SED's is incomplete and neglects most of the input data. This paper describes the methods of how sensitivity profiles for SED's are obtained and used to estimate the uncertainty of an integral response due to uncertainties in these SED's. The detailed theory is documented elsewhere and implemented in the LASL sensitivity code SENSIT. SED sensitivity profiles have proven particularly valuable in cross-section uncertainty analyses for fusion reactors. Even when the production cross sections for secondary neutrons were assumed to be without error, the uncertainties in the energy distribution of these secondaries produced appreciable uncertainties in the calculated tritium breeding rate. However, complete error files for SED's are presently nonexistent. Therefore, methods will be described that allow rough error estimates due to estimated SED uncertainties based on integral SED sensitivities

Sparing Healthy Tissue and Increasing Tumor Dose Using Bayesian Modeling of Geometric Uncertainties for Planning Target Volume Personalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herschtal, Alan; Te Marvelde, Luc; Mengersen, Kerrie; Foroudi, Farshad; Eade, Thomas; Pham, Daniel; Caine, Hannah; Kron, Tomas

2015-01-01

Objective: To develop a mathematical tool that can update a patient's planning target volume (PTV) partway through a course of radiation therapy to more precisely target the tumor for the remainder of treatment and reduce dose to surrounding healthy tissue. Methods and Materials: Daily on-board imaging was used to collect large datasets of displacements for patients undergoing external beam radiation therapy for solid tumors. Bayesian statistical modeling of these geometric uncertainties was used to optimally trade off between displacement data collected from previously treated patients and the progressively accumulating data from a patient currently partway through treatment, to optimally predict future displacements for that patient. These predictions were used to update the PTV position and margin width for the remainder of treatment, such that the clinical target volume (CTV) was more precisely targeted. Results: Software simulation of dose to CTV and normal tissue for 2 real prostate displacement datasets consisting of 146 and 290 patients treated with a minimum of 30 fractions each showed that re-evaluating the PTV position and margin width after 8 treatment fractions reduced healthy tissue dose by 19% and 17%, respectively, while maintaining CTV dose. Conclusion: Incorporating patient-specific displacement patterns from early in a course of treatment allows PTV adaptation for the remainder of treatment. This substantially reduces the dose to healthy tissues and thus can reduce radiation therapy–induced toxicities, improving patient outcomes

Sparing Healthy Tissue and Increasing Tumor Dose Using Bayesian Modeling of Geometric Uncertainties for Planning Target Volume Personalization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herschtal, Alan, E-mail: Alan.Herschtal@petermac.org [Department of Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Faculty of Health, Arts and Design, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Te Marvelde, Luc [Department of Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Mengersen, Kerrie [School of Mathematical Sciences, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia); Foroudi, Farshad [Department of Radiation Oncology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); The Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne (Australia); Eade, Thomas [Northern Sydney Cancer Centre, Radiation Oncology Department, Royal North Shore Hospital, St. Leonards, Sydney (Australia); Northern Clinical School, University of Sydney (Australia); Pham, Daniel [Department of Radiation Therapy, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Caine, Hannah [Northern Sydney Cancer Centre, Radiation Oncology Department, Royal North Shore Hospital, St. Leonards, Sydney (Australia); Kron, Tomas [The Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne (Australia); Department of Physical Sciences, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia)

2015-06-01

Objective: To develop a mathematical tool that can update a patient's planning target volume (PTV) partway through a course of radiation therapy to more precisely target the tumor for the remainder of treatment and reduce dose to surrounding healthy tissue. Methods and Materials: Daily on-board imaging was used to collect large datasets of displacements for patients undergoing external beam radiation therapy for solid tumors. Bayesian statistical modeling of these geometric uncertainties was used to optimally trade off between displacement data collected from previously treated patients and the progressively accumulating data from a patient currently partway through treatment, to optimally predict future displacements for that patient. These predictions were used to update the PTV position and margin width for the remainder of treatment, such that the clinical target volume (CTV) was more precisely targeted. Results: Software simulation of dose to CTV and normal tissue for 2 real prostate displacement datasets consisting of 146 and 290 patients treated with a minimum of 30 fractions each showed that re-evaluating the PTV position and margin width after 8 treatment fractions reduced healthy tissue dose by 19% and 17%, respectively, while maintaining CTV dose. Conclusion: Incorporating patient-specific displacement patterns from early in a course of treatment allows PTV adaptation for the remainder of treatment. This substantially reduces the dose to healthy tissues and thus can reduce radiation therapy–induced toxicities, improving patient outcomes.

Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiuwen; Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui

2014-06-01

Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004-2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial-temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial-temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrative evaluation for sustainable decisions of urban wastewater system management under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Hadjimichael, A.; Corominas, L.; Comas, J.

2017-12-01

With sustainable development as their overarching goal, urban wastewater system (UWS) managers need to take into account multiple social, economic, technical and environmental facets related to their decisions. In this complex decision-making environment, uncertainty can be formidable. It is present both in the ways the system is interpreted stochastically, but also in its natural ever-shifting behavior. This inherent uncertainty suggests that wiser decisions would be made under an adaptive and iterative decision-making regime. No decision-support framework has been presented in the literature to effectively addresses all these needs. The objective of this work is to describe such a conceptual framework to evaluate and compare alternative solutions for various UWS challenges within an adaptive management structure. Socio-economic aspects such as externalities are taken into account, along with other traditional criteria as necessary. Robustness, reliability and resilience analyses test the performance of the system against present and future variability. A valuation uncertainty analysis incorporates uncertain valuation assumptions in the decision-making process. The framework is demonstrated with an application to a case study presenting a typical problem often faced by managers: poor river water quality, increasing population, and more stringent water quality legislation. The application of the framework made use of: i) a cost-benefit analysis including monetized environmental benefits and damages; ii) a robustness analysis of system performance against future conditions; iii) reliability and resilience analyses of the system given contextual variability; and iv) a valuation uncertainty analysis of model parameters. The results suggest that the installation of bigger volumes would give rise to increased benefits despite larger capital costs, as well as increased robustness and resilience. Population numbers appear to affect the estimated benefits most, followed by

Range uncertainties in proton therapy and the role of Monte Carlo simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paganetti, Harald

2012-01-01

The main advantages of proton therapy are the reduced total energy deposited in the patient as compared to photon techniques and the finite range of the proton beam. The latter adds an additional degree of freedom to treatment planning. The range in tissue is associated with considerable uncertainties caused by imaging, patient setup, beam delivery and dose calculation. Reducing the uncertainties would allow a reduction of the treatment volume and thus allow a better utilization of the advantages of protons. This paper summarizes the role of Monte Carlo simulations when aiming at a reduction of range uncertainties in proton therapy. Differences in dose calculation when comparing Monte Carlo with analytical algorithms are analyzed as well as range uncertainties due to material constants and CT conversion. Range uncertainties due to biological effects and the role of Monte Carlo for in vivo range verification are discussed. Furthermore, the current range uncertainty recipes used at several proton therapy facilities are revisited. We conclude that a significant impact of Monte Carlo dose calculation can be expected in complex geometries where local range uncertainties due to multiple Coulomb scattering will reduce the accuracy of analytical algorithms. In these cases Monte Carlo techniques might reduce the range uncertainty by several mm. (topical review)

Control letters and uncertainties of the kerma patterns in air, dose absorbed in water and dose absorbed in air of the LSCD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez R, M.T.; Tovar M, V.M.; Cejudo A, J.

2005-12-01

With the purpose of characterizing the component of uncertainty of long term of the patron ionization chambers of the LSCD, for the magnitudes: speed of kerma in air Κ α· , dose speed absorbed in water Dα · , and speed absorbed dose in air Dα · , it use the technique of letters of control l-MR/S. This statistical technique it estimates the component of uncertainty of short term by means of the deviation standard inside groups σ ω and that of long term by means of the standard deviation among groups σ β , being this it finishes an estimator of the stability of the patterns.The letters of control l-MR/S it construct for: i) Κ α· , in radiation field of 60 Co for patterns: primary CC01 series 131, secondary NE 2611 series 176, secondary PTW TN30031 series 578 and Third PTW W30001 series 365. ii) Dα),en radiation field of 60 Co for patterns: primary CC01 series 131, Secondary PTW TN30031 series 578 and tertiary PTW W30001 series 365. iii) I-MR/S with extrapolation chamber PTW primary pattern, measurement realizes in secondary patron fields of 90 Sr- 90 Y. The expanded uncertainty U it is calculated of agreement with the Guide of the ISO/BIPM being observed the following thing: a. In some the cases σ β , is the component of the U that more contributed to this. Therefore, it is necessary to settle down technical of sampling in those mensurations that allow to reduce the value of σ β . For example with sizes of subgroup η ∼ 30 data, or with a number of subgroups κ ≥ . That which is achieved automating the mensuration processes. b.The component of the temperature is also one of those that but they contribute to the U, of there the necessity of: to recover the tracking for this magnitude of it influences and to increase the precision in the determinations of the temperature to diminish their influence in the U. c. The percentage difference of the magnitudes dosemeters carried out by it patterns are consistent with U certain. However, it is necessary

Uncertainty calculations made easier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogenbirk, A.

1994-07-01

The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

INTERCOMPARISON ON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE QUANTITY PERSONAL DOSE EQUIVALENT HP(10) IN PHOTON FIELDS. LINEARITY DEPENDENCE, LOWER LIMIT OF DETECTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN MEASUREMENT OF DOSIMETRY SYSTEMS OF INDIVIDUAL MONITORING SERVICES IN GABON AND GHANA.

Science.gov (United States)

Ondo Meye, P; Schandorf, C; Amoako, J K; Manteaw, P O; Amoatey, E A; Adjei, D N

2017-12-01

An inter-comparison study was conducted to assess the capability of dosimetry systems of individual monitoring services (IMSs) in Gabon and Ghana to measure personal dose equivalent Hp(10) in photon fields. The performance indicators assessed were the lower limit of detection, linearity and uncertainty in measurement. Monthly and quarterly recording levels were proposed with corresponding values of 0.08 and 0.025 mSv, and 0.05 and 0.15 mSv for the TLD and OSL systems, respectively. The linearity dependence of the dosimetry systems was performed following the requirement given in the Standard IEC 62387 of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). The results obtained for the two systems were satisfactory. The procedure followed for the uncertainty assessment is the one given in the IEC technical report TR62461. The maximum relative overall uncertainties, in absolute value, expressed in terms of Hp(10), for the TL dosimetry system Harshaw 6600, are 44. 35% for true doses below 0.40 mSv and 36.33% for true doses ≥0.40 mSv. For the OSL dosimetry system microStar, the maximum relative overall uncertainties, in absolute value, are 52.17% for true doses below 0.40 mSv and 37.43% for true doses ≥0.40 mSv. These results are in good agreement with the requirements for accuracy of the International Commission on Radiological protection. When expressing the uncertainties in terms of response, comparison with the IAEA requirements for overall accuracy showed that the uncertainty results were also acceptable. The values of Hp(10) directly measured by the two dosimetry systems showed a significant underestimation for the Harshaw 6600 system, and a slight overestimation for the microStar system. After correction for linearity of the measured doses, the two dosimetry systems gave better and comparable results. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Uncertainty analysis of the 35% reactor inlet header break in a CANDU 6 reactor using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with integrated uncertainty analysis option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dupleac, D.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.; Allison, C.

2011-01-01

The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) follows the input-propagation approach using probability distribution functions to define the uncertainty of the input parameters. The main steps for this type of methodologies, often referred as to statistical approaches or Wilks’ methods, are the ones that follow: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) calculates the number of required code runs given the desired percentile and confidence level, performs the sampling process for the

Uncertainty analysis of the 35% reactor inlet header break in a CANDU 6 reactor using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with integrated uncertainty analysis option

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dupleac, D., E-mail: danieldu@cne.pub.ro [Politehnica Univ. of Bucharest (Romania); Perez, M.; Reventos, F., E-mail: marina.perez@upc.edu, E-mail: francesc.reventos@upc.edu [Technical Univ. of Catalonia (Spain); Allison, C., E-mail: iss@cableone.net [Innovative Systems Software (United States)

2011-07-01

The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) follows the input-propagation approach using probability distribution functions to define the uncertainty of the input parameters. The main steps for this type of methodologies, often referred as to statistical approaches or Wilks’ methods, are the ones that follow: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) calculates the number of required code runs given the desired percentile and confidence level, performs the sampling process for the

Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lian Jun; Xing Lei

2004-01-01

Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...

Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

2007-01-01

Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

High-dose simultaneously integrated breast boost using intensity-modulated radiotherapy and inverse optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurkmans, Coen W.; Meijer, Gert J.; Vliet-Vroegindeweij, Corine van; Sangen, Maurice J. van der; Cassee, Jorien

2006-01-01

Purpose: Recently a Phase III randomized trial has started comparing a boost of 16 Gy as part of whole-breast irradiation to a high boost of 26 Gy in young women. Our main aim was to develop an efficient simultaneously integrated boost (SIB) technique for the high-dose arm of the trial. Methods and Materials: Treatment planning was performed for 5 left-sided and 5 right-sided tumors. A tangential field intensity-modulated radiotherapy technique added to a sequentially planned 3-field boost (SEQ) was compared with a simultaneously planned technique (SIB) using inverse optimization. Normalized total dose (NTD)-corrected dose volume histogram parameters were calculated and compared. Results: The intended NTD was produced by 31 fractions of 1.66 Gy to the whole breast and 2.38 Gy to the boost volume. The average volume of the PTV-breast and PTV-boost receiving more than 95% of the prescribed dose was 97% or more for both techniques. Also, the mean lung dose and mean heart dose did not differ much between the techniques, with on average 3.5 Gy and 2.6 Gy for the SEQ and 3.8 Gy and 2.6 Gy for the SIB, respectively. However, the SIB resulted in a significantly more conformal irradiation of the PTV-boost. The volume of the PTV-breast, excluding the PTV-boost, receiving a dose higher than 95% of the boost dose could be reduced considerably using the SIB as compared with the SEQ from 129 cc (range, 48-262 cc) to 58 cc (range, 30-102 cc). Conclusions: A high-dose simultaneously integrated breast boost technique has been developed. The unwanted excessive dose to the breast was significantly reduced

Energy and integrated dose dependence of MOSFET dosimeter for clinical electron beams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manigandan, D.; Bharanidharan, G.; Aruna, P.; Ganesan, S.; Tamil Kumar, T.; Rai

2008-01-01

In this study, the sensitivity (mV/cGy) and integral dose dependence of a MOSFET detector for different clinical electron beams was studied. Calibrated clinical electron beams (Varian 2100) were used for the exposure. A Markus type parallel plate chamber was used for the absolute dose measurements. In order to study the sensitivity of a MOSFET, the response of the ion chamber and MOSFET for the absorbed dose of 100 cGy was measured. The sensitivity of the MOSFET was then expressed as mV/cGy. Sensitivity was measured for 4-18 MeV electron beams. (author)

FURTHER STUDIES ON UNCERTAINTY, CONFOUNDING, AND VALIDATION OF THE DOSES IN THE TECHA RIVER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM: Concluding Progress Report on the Second Phase of Project 1.1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, Bruce A.

2009-10-23

This is the concluding Progress Report for Project 1.1 of the U.S./Russia Joint Coordinating Committee on Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER). An overwhelming majority of our work this period has been to complete our primary obligation of providing a new version of the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS), which we call TRDS-2009D; the D denotes deterministic. This system provides estimates of individual doses to members of the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC) and post-natal doses to members of the Techa River Offspring Cohort (TROC). The latter doses were calculated with use of the TRDS-2009D. The doses for the members of the ETRC have been made available to the American and Russian epidemiologists in September for their studies in deriving radiogenic risk factors. Doses for members of the TROC are being provided to European and Russian epidemiologists, as partial input for studies of risk in this population. Two of our original goals for the completion of this nine-year phase of Project 1.1 were not completed. These are completion of TRDS-2009MC, which was to be a Monte Carlo version of TRDS-2009 that could be used for more explicit analysis of the impact of uncertainty in doses on uncertainty in radiogenic risk factors. The second incomplete goal was to be the provision of household specific external doses (rather than village average). This task was far along, but had to be delayed due to the lead investigator’s work on consideration of a revised source term.

A research on verification of the CONTAIN CODE model and the uncertainty reduction method for containment integrity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae Hong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Moo Hwan; Kang, Seok Hun; Seo, Kyoung Woo [Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

1999-03-15

The final goal of this research is to verify methodology for evaluating more accurately the integrity of containment and develop the methodology to reduce the uncertainty using the data of the operating PWR, KSNPP, KNGR during a severe accident. Therefore, the research selected an indispensable factor about DCH, and analysed sensitivity test at this year.

Reliability of the ICRP's dose coefficients for members of the public: IV. Basis of the human alimentary tract model and uncertainties in model predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leggett, R.; Harrison, J.; Phipps, A.

2007-01-01

The biokinetic and dosimetric model of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract applied in current documents of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) was developed in the mid-1960's. The model was based on features of a reference adult male and was first used by the ICRP in Publication 30, Limits for Intakes of Radionuclides by Workers (Part 1, 1979). In the late 1990's an ICRP task group was appointed to develop a biokinetic and dosimetric model of the alimentary tract that reflects updated information and addresses current needs in radiation protection. The new age-specific and gender-specific model, called the Human Alimentary Tract Model (HATM), has been completed and will replace the GI model of Publication 30 in upcoming ICRP documents. This paper discusses the basis for the structure and parameter values of the HATM, summarises the uncertainties associated with selected features and types of predictions of the HATM and examines the sensitivity of dose estimates to these uncertainties for selected radionuclides. Emphasis is on generic biokinetic features of the HATM, particularly transit times through the lumen of the alimentary tract, but key dosimetric features of the model are outlined, and the sensitivity of tissue dose estimates to uncertainties in dosimetric as well as biokinetic features of the HATM are examined for selected radionuclides. (authors)

Financial risk management for new technology integration in energy planning under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, Sajjad; Elsholkami, Mohamed; Elkamel, Ali; Du, Juan; Ydstie, Erik B.; Douglas, Peter L.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Financial risk associated with over or underproduction of electricity is studied. • A two-stage stochastic model that considers parameter uncertainties is developed. • The model was applied to a real case to meet projected electricity demand of a fleet of generating stations. • Incorporation of financial risk resulted in an increase in electricity cost. • The selection of technologies was the same as that obtained from a deterministic model. - Abstract: This paper proposes a new methodology to include financial risk management in the framework of two-stage stochastic programming for energy planning under uncertainties in demand and fuel price. A deterministic mixed integer linear programming formulation is extended to a two-stage stochastic programming model in order to take into account random parameters that have discrete and finite probabilistic distributions. This was applied to a case study focusing on planning the capacity supply to meet the projected electricity demand for the fleet of electricity generation stations owned and operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The objective of the proposed mathematical model is to minimize cost subject to environmental constraints. The case study is investigated by considering only existing technologies and also by considering the integration of new technologies that help achieve stricter carbon reduction requirements

Radiation doses and risks from internal emitters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, John; Day, Philip

2008-01-01

This review updates material prepared for the UK Government Committee Examining Radiation Risks from Internal Emitters (CERRIE) and also refers to the new recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and other recent developments. Two conclusions from CERRIE were that ICRP should clarify and elaborate its advice on the use of its dose quantities, equivalent and effective dose, and that more attention should be paid to uncertainties in dose and risk estimates and their implications. The new ICRP recommendations provide explanations of the calculation and intended purpose of the protection quantities, but further advice on their use would be helpful. The new recommendations refer to the importance of understanding uncertainties in estimates of dose and risk, although methods for doing this are not suggested. Dose coefficients (Sv per Bq intake) for the inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are published as reference values without uncertainty. The primary purpose of equivalent and effective dose is to enable the summation of doses from different radionuclides and from external sources for comparison with dose limits, constraints and reference levels that relate to stochastic risks of whole-body radiation exposure. Doses are calculated using defined biokinetic and dosimetric models, including reference anatomical data for the organs and tissues of the human body. Radiation weighting factors are used to adjust for the different effectiveness of different radiation types, per unit absorbed dose (Gy), in causing stochastic effects at low doses and dose rates. Tissue weighting factors are used to take account of the contribution of individual organs and tissues to overall detriment from cancer and hereditary effects, providing a simple set of rounded values chosen on the basis of age- and sex-averaged values of relative detriment. While the definition of absorbed dose has the scientific rigour required of a basic physical quantity

RISC-RAD. A European integrated approach to the problem of low doses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meunier, A.; Sabatier, L.; Atkinson, M.; Paretzke, H.; Bouffler, S.; Mullenders, L.

2007-01-01

Complete text of publication follows. Funded by the European Commission in the framework of a dedicated programme supporting research in the Nuclear sector (FP6 Euratom), the project RISC-RAD undertakes experimental and modelling studies ultimately to improve low dose radiation cancer risk assessment by exploring and providing evidence for the most appropriate radiation cancer risk projection and interpolation models. It started on 1st January 2004 and is running until 31 st October 2008. It mobilizes a consortium of 31 partners and is coordinated by Dr. Laure Sabatier from the French atomic energy commission. Indeed the project represents an unprecedented attempt to integrate horizontally the research on the effects of low doses of IR at the European level. A multipartner project supporting objective-driven research, RISC-RAD aims at contributing to bridge the remaining gap of scientific knowledge about effects of lows doses of ionizing radiation. It spans a large part of the research spectrum, including many topics addressed during the LOWRAD2007 conference. This presentation intends to give an account of the integrative aspects of the project, insights on the innovative solutions found to approach a complex and controversial scientific topic like the biological effects of low doses of ionizing radiation, and links with some areas of social studies on science.The concept of 'integration' implies the development of a new kind of activity in the research field, which crosses its traditional boundaries : controversies of several kinds must temporarily be overcome within the project management board in order to define and follow a common strategy. Among them, how to reconcile the creative part of fundamental research with the compliance to strict project planning rules has come up as a debate which questions the best way a significant collective and coordinated action can address the issue of the low dose cancer risk assessment on the long term. The knowledge and

Evaluation of the uncertainty in an EBT3 film dosimetry system utilizing net optical density.

Science.gov (United States)

Marroquin, Elsa Y León; Herrera González, José A; Camacho López, Miguel A; Barajas, José E Villarreal; García-Garduño, Olivia A

2016-09-08

Radiochromic film has become an important tool to verify dose distributions for intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and quality assurance (QA) procedures. A new radiochromic film model, EBT3, has recently become available, whose composition and thickness of the sensitive layer are the same as those of previous EBT2 films. However, a matte polyester layer was added to EBT3 to prevent the formation of Newton's rings. Furthermore, the symmetrical design of EBT3 allows the user to eliminate side-orientation dependence. This film and the flatbed scanner, Epson Perfection V750, form a dosimetry system whose intrinsic characteristics were studied in this work. In addition, uncertainties associated with these intrinsic characteristics and the total uncertainty of the dosimetry system were determined. The analysis of the response of the radiochromic film (net optical density) and the fitting of the experimental data to a potential function yielded an uncertainty of 2.6%, 4.3%, and 4.1% for the red, green, and blue channels, respectively. In this work, the dosimetry system presents an uncertainty in resolving the dose of 1.8% for doses greater than 0.8 Gy and less than 6 Gy for red channel. The films irradiated between 0 and 120 Gy show differences in the response when scanned in portrait or landscape mode; less uncertainty was found when using the portrait mode. The response of the film depended on the position on the bed of the scanner, contributing an uncertainty of 2% for the red, 3% for the green, and 4.5% for the blue when placing the film around the center of the bed of scanner. Furthermore, the uniformity and reproducibility radiochromic film and reproducibility of the response of the scanner contribute less than 1% to the overall uncertainty in dose. Finally, the total dose uncertainty was 3.2%, 4.9%, and 5.2% for red, green, and blue channels, respectively. The above uncertainty values were obtained by mini-mizing the contribution to the total dose uncertainty

A retrospective dosimetry method and its uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, L.; Jia, D.; Dai, G.

2000-01-01

The main aim of a radiation epidemiological study is to assess the risk of the population exposed to ionizing radiation. The actual work of the assessment may be very difficult because dose information about the population is often indirect and incomplete. It is very important, therefore, to find a way of estimating reasonable and reliable doses of the population by a retrospective method from limited information. In order to provide reasonable dose information for the cohort study of Chinese medical diagnostic X-ray workers, a retrospective dosimetry method was established. In China, a cohort study of more than 27,000 medical diagnostic X-ray workers, with 25,000 controls, has been carried out for about fifteen years in order to assess the risk to an occupationally exposed population. Obviously, a key to the success of the study is to obtain reliable and reasonable results of dose estimation by the dose reconstruction method. Before 1985, there was a lack of information regarding personal dose measured directly; however, we can obtain other indirect information. Examples are information about working loads from the documents of the hospitals, information about operational conditions of the workers of different statuses by a survey of occupational history, and the exposure levels of various working conditions by some simulation methods. The information for estimating organ dose can also be obtained by simulating experiments with a phantom. Based on the information mentioned above, a mathematical model and computerizing system for dose reconstruction of this occupational population was design and developed. Uncertainty analysis very important for dose reconstruction. The sources of uncertainty of our study are coming from two fields. One is coming from the mode of dose reconstruction. Another is coming from the survey of the occupational history. In the result reported, main results of the uncertainty will be presented. In order to control the uncertainty of the

Sources of uncertainty in individual monitoring for photographic,TL and OSL dosimetry techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferreira, Max S.; Silva, Everton R.; Mauricio, Claudia L.P., E-mail: max.das.ferreira@gmail.com, E-mail: everton@ird.gov.br, E-mail: claudia@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2015-07-01

The identification of the uncertainty sources and their quantification is essential to the quality of any dosimetric results. If uncertainties are not stated for all dose measurements informed in the monthly dose report to the monitored radiation facilities, they need to be known. This study aims to analyze the influence of different sources of uncertainties associated with photographic, TL and OSL dosimetric techniques, considering the evaluation of occupational doses of whole-body exposure for photons. To identify the sources of uncertainty it was conducted a bibliographic review in specific documents that deal with operational aspects of each technique and the uncertainties associated to each of them. Withal, technical visits to individual monitoring services were conducted to assist in this identification. The sources of uncertainty were categorized and their contributions were expressed in a qualitative way. The process of calibration and traceability are the most important sources of uncertainties, regardless the technique used. For photographic dosimetry, the remaining important uncertainty sources are due to: energy and angular dependence; linearity of response; variations in the films processing. For TL and OSL, the key process for a good performance is respectively the reproducibility of the thermal and optical cycles. For the three techniques, all procedures of the measurement process must be standardized, controlled and reproducible. Further studies can be performed to quantify the contribution of the sources of uncertainty. (author)

Integrated numerical platforms for environmental dose assessments of large tritium inventory facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castro, P.; Ardao, J.; Velarde, M.; Sedano, L.; Xiberta, J.

2013-01-01

Related with a prospected new scenario of large inventory tritium facilities [KATRIN at TLK, CANDUs, ITER, EAST, other coming] the prescribed dosimetric limits by ICRP-60 for tritium committed-doses are under discussion requiring, in parallel, to surmount the highly conservative assessments by increasing the refinement of dosimetric-assessments in many aspects. Precise Lagrangian-computations of dosimetric cloud-evolution after standardized (normal/incidental/SBO) tritium cloud emissions are today numerically open to the perfect match of real-time meteorological-data, and patterns data at diverse scales for prompt/early and chronic tritium dose assessments. The trends towards integrated-numerical-platforms for environmental-dose assessments of large tritium inventory facilities under development.

Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

1995-12-31

A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

Integrated task plans for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, June 1992 through May 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipler, D.B.

1993-09-01

The purpose of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is to estimate radiation doses from Hanford Site operations since 1944 to representative individuals. The primary objective of work to be performed through May 1994 is to determine the project's appropriate scope: space, time, radionuclides, pathways and representative individuals; determine the project's appropriate level of accuracy/level of uncertainty in dose estimates; complete model and data development; and estimate doses for the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study and representative individuals. A major objective of the HEDR Project is to estimate doses to the thyroid of individuals who were exposed to iodine-131. A principal pathway for many of these individuals was milk from cows that ate vegetation contaminated by iodine-131 released into the air from Hanford facilities. The plan for June 1992 through May 1994 has been prepared based on activities and budgets approved by the Technical Steering Panel (TSP) at its meetings on January 7--9, 1993 and February 25--26, 1993. The activities can be divided into three broad categories: (1) computer code and data development activities, (2) calculation of doses, and (3) technical and communication support to the TSP and the TSP Native American Working Group (NAWG). The following activities will be conducted to accomplish project objectives through May 1994

Reducing the sensitivity of IMPT treatment plans to setup errors and range uncertainties via probabilistic treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unkelbach, Jan; Bortfeld, Thomas; Martin, Benjamin C.; Soukup, Martin

2009-01-01

Treatment plans optimized for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) may be very sensitive to setup errors and range uncertainties. If these errors are not accounted for during treatment planning, the dose distribution realized in the patient may by strongly degraded compared to the planned dose distribution. The authors implemented the probabilistic approach to incorporate uncertainties directly into the optimization of an intensity modulated treatment plan. Following this approach, the dose distribution depends on a set of random variables which parameterize the uncertainty, as does the objective function used to optimize the treatment plan. The authors optimize the expected value of the objective function. They investigate IMPT treatment planning regarding range uncertainties and setup errors. They demonstrate that incorporating these uncertainties into the optimization yields qualitatively different treatment plans compared to conventional plans which do not account for uncertainty. The sensitivity of an IMPT plan depends on the dose contributions of individual beam directions. Roughly speaking, steep dose gradients in beam direction make treatment plans sensitive to range errors. Steep lateral dose gradients make plans sensitive to setup errors. More robust treatment plans are obtained by redistributing dose among different beam directions. This can be achieved by the probabilistic approach. In contrast, the safety margin approach as widely applied in photon therapy fails in IMPT and is neither suitable for handling range variations nor setup errors.

Uncertainty of angular displacement measurement with a MEMS gyroscope integrated in a smartphone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Campos Porath, Maurício; Dolci, Ricardo

2015-01-01

Low-cost inertial sensors have recently gained popularity and are now widely used in electronic devices such as smartphones and tablets. In this paper we present the results of a set of experiments aiming to assess the angular displacement measurement errors of a gyroscope integrated in a smartphone of a recent model. The goal is to verify whether these sensors could substitute dedicated electronic inclinometers for the measurement of angular displacement. We estimated a maximum error of 0.3° (sum of expanded uncertainty and maximum absolute bias) for the roll and pitch axes, for a measurement time without referencing up to 1 h. (paper)

Developing a flexible and verifiable integrated dose assessment capability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parzyck, D.C.; Rhea, T.A.; Copenhaver, E.D.; Bogard, J.S.

1987-01-01

A flexible yet verifiable system of computing and recording personnel doses is needed. Recent directions in statutes establish the trend of combining internal and external doses. We are developing a Health Physics Information Management System (HPIMS) that will centralize dosimetry calculations and data storage; integrate health physics records with other health-related disciplines, such as industrial hygiene, medicine, and safety; provide a more auditable system with published algorithms and clearly defined flowcharts of system operation; readily facilitate future changes dictated by new regulations, new dosimetric models, and new systems of units; and address ad-hoc inquiries regarding worker/workplace interactions, including potential synergisms with non-radiation exposures. The system is modular and provides a high degree of isolation from low-level detail, allowing flexibility for changes without adversely affecting other parts of the system. 10 refs., 3 figs

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in nuclear accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karlberg, Olof.

1989-01-01

This report contains the results of a four year project in research contracts with the Nordic Cooperation in Nuclear Safety and the National Institute for Radiation Protection. An uncertainty/sensitivity analysis methodology consisting of Latin Hypercube sampling and regression analysis was applied to an accident consequence model. A number of input parameters were selected and the uncertainties related to these parameter were estimated within a Nordic group of experts. Individual doses, collective dose, health effects and their related uncertainties were then calculated for three release scenarios and for a representative sample of meteorological situations. From two of the scenarios the acute phase after an accident were simulated and from one the long time consequences. The most significant parameters were identified. The outer limits of the calculated uncertainty distributions are large and will grow to several order of magnitudes for the low probability consequences. The uncertainty in the expectation values are typical a factor 2-5 (1 Sigma). The variation in the model responses due to the variation of the weather parameters is fairly equal to the parameter uncertainty induced variation. The most important parameters showed out to be different for each pathway of exposure, which could be expected. However, the overall most important parameters are the wet deposition coefficient and the shielding factors. A general discussion of the usefulness of uncertainty analysis in consequence analysis is also given. (au)

Unexpected uncertainty, volatility and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy Rachel Bland

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The study of uncertainty in decision making is receiving greater attention in the fields of cognitive and computational neuroscience. Several lines of evidence are beginning to elucidate different variants of uncertainty. Particularly, risk, ambiguity and expected and unexpected forms of uncertainty are well articulated in the literature. In this article we review both empirical and theoretical evidence arguing for the potential distinction between three forms of uncertainty; expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty and volatility. Particular attention will be devoted to exploring the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility which has been less appreciated in the literature. This includes evidence from computational modelling, neuromodulation, neuroimaging and electrophysiological studies. We further address the possible differentiation of cognitive control mechanisms used to deal with these forms of uncertainty. Particularly we explore a role for conflict monitoring and the temporal integration of information into working memory. Finally, we explore whether the Dual Modes of Control theory provides a theoretical framework for understanding the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility.

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01

features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

Integrating geological uncertainty in long-term open pit mine production planning by ant colony optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Gilani, Seyed-Omid; Sattarvand, Javad

2016-02-01

Meeting production targets in terms of ore quantity and quality is critical for a successful mining operation. In-situ grade uncertainty causes both deviations from production targets and general financial deficits. A new stochastic optimization algorithm based on ant colony optimization (ACO) approach is developed herein to integrate geological uncertainty described through a series of the simulated ore bodies. Two different strategies were developed based on a single predefined probability value (Prob) and multiple probability values (Pro bnt) , respectively in order to improve the initial solutions that created by deterministic ACO procedure. Application at the Sungun copper mine in the northwest of Iran demonstrate the abilities of the stochastic approach to create a single schedule and control the risk of deviating from production targets over time and also increase the project value. A comparison between two strategies and traditional approach illustrates that the multiple probability strategy is able to produce better schedules, however, the single predefined probability is more practical in projects requiring of high flexibility degree.

Independent dose calculation in IMRT for the Tps Iplan using the Clarkson modified integral

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adrada, A.; Tello, Z.; Garrigo, E.; Venencia, D.

2014-08-01

Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) treatments require a quality assurance (Q A) specific patient before delivery. These controls include the experimental verification in dose phantom of the total plan as well as dose distributions. The use of independent dose calculation (IDC) is used in 3D-Crt treatments; however its application in IMRT requires the implementation of an algorithm that allows considering a non-uniform intensity beam. The purpose of this work was to develop IDC software in IMRT with MLC using the algorithm proposed by Kung (Kung et al. 2000). The software was done using Matlab programming. The Clarkson modified integral was implemented on each flowing, applying concentric rings for the dose determination. From the integral of each field was calculated the dose anywhere. One time finished a planning; all data are exported to a phantom where a Q A plan is generated. On this is calculated the half dose in a representative volume of the ionization chamber and the dose at the center of it. Until now 230 IMRT planning were analyzed carried out ??in the treatment planning system (Tps) Iplan. For each one of them Q A plan was generated, were calculated and compared calculated dose with the Tps, IDC system and measurement with ionization chamber. The average difference between measured and calculated dose with the IDC system was 0.4% ± 2.2% [-6.8%, 6.4%]. The difference between the measured and the calculated doses by the pencil-beam algorithm (Pb) of Tps was 2.6% ± 1.41% [-2.0%, 5.6%] and with the Monte Carlo algorithm was 0.4% ± 1.5% [-4.9%, 3.7%]. The differences of the carried out software are comparable to the obtained with the ionization chamber and Tps in Monte Carlo mode. (author)

Calculation of the uncertainty in complication probability for various dose-response models, applied to the parotid gland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schilstra, C.; Meertens, H.

2001-01-01

Purpose: Usually, models that predict normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) are fitted to clinical data with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. This method inevitably causes a loss of information contained in the data. In this study, an alternative method is investigated that calculates the parameter probability distribution (PD), and, thus, conserves all information. The PD method also allows the calculation of the uncertainty in the NTCP, which is an (often-neglected) prerequisite for the intercomparison of both treatment plans and NTCP models. The PD and ML methods are applied to parotid gland data, and the results are compared. Methods and Materials: The drop in salivary flow due to radiotherapy was measured in 25 parotid glands of 15 patients. Together with the parotid gland dose-volume histograms (DVH), this enabled the calculation of the parameter PDs for three different NTCP models (Lyman, relative seriality, and critical volume). From these PDs, the NTCP and its uncertainty could be calculated for arbitrary parotid gland DVHs. ML parameters and resulting NTCP values were calculated also. Results: All models fitted equally well. The parameter PDs turned out to have nonnormal shapes and long tails. The NTCP predictions of the ML and PD method usually differed considerably, depending on the NTCP model and the nature of irradiation. NTCP curves and ML parameters suggested a highly parallel organization of the parotid gland. Conclusions: Considering the substantial differences between the NTCP predictions of the ML and PD method, the use of the PD method is preferred, because this is the only method that takes all information contained in the clinical data into account. Furthermore, PD method gives a true measure of the uncertainty in the NTCP

Robustness of ancestral sequence reconstruction to phylogenetic uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson-Smith, Victor; Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

2010-09-01

Ancestral sequence reconstruction (ASR) is widely used to formulate and test hypotheses about the sequences, functions, and structures of ancient genes. Ancestral sequences are usually inferred from an alignment of extant sequences using a maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic algorithm, which calculates the most likely ancestral sequence assuming a probabilistic model of sequence evolution and a specific phylogeny--typically the tree with the ML. The true phylogeny is seldom known with certainty, however. ML methods ignore this uncertainty, whereas Bayesian methods incorporate it by integrating the likelihood of each ancestral state over a distribution of possible trees. It is not known whether Bayesian approaches to phylogenetic uncertainty improve the accuracy of inferred ancestral sequences. Here, we use simulation-based experiments under both simplified and empirically derived conditions to compare the accuracy of ASR carried out using ML and Bayesian approaches. We show that incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty by integrating over topologies very rarely changes the inferred ancestral state and does not improve the accuracy of the reconstructed ancestral sequence. Ancestral state reconstructions are robust to uncertainty about the underlying tree because the conditions that produce phylogenetic uncertainty also make the ancestral state identical across plausible trees; conversely, the conditions under which different phylogenies yield different inferred ancestral states produce little or no ambiguity about the true phylogeny. Our results suggest that ML can produce accurate ASRs, even in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty. Using Bayesian integration to incorporate this uncertainty is neither necessary nor beneficial.

Step-and-Shoot versus Compensator-based IMRT: Calculation and Comparison of Integral Dose in Non-tumoral and Target Organs in Prostate Cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaveh Shirani Tak Abi

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Introduction Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT is becoming an increasingly routine treatment method. IMRT can be delivered by use of conventional Multileaf Collimators (MLCs and/or physical compensators. One of the most important factors in selecting an appropriate IMRT technique is integral dose. Integral dose is equal to the mean energy deposited in the total irradiated volume of the patient. The aim of the present study was to calculate and compare the integral dose in normal and target organs in two different procedures of IMRT: Step-and-Shoot (SAS and compensator-based IMRT. Materials and Methods In this comparative study, five patients with prostate cancer were selected. Module Integrated Radiotherapy System was applied, using three energy ranges. In both treatment planning methods, the integral dose dramatically decreased by increasing energy. Results Comparison of two treatment methods showed that on average, the integral dose of body in SAS radiation therapy was about 1.62% lower than that reported in compensator-based IMRT. In planning target volume, rectum, bladder, and left and right femoral heads, the integral doses for SAS method were 1.01%, 1.02%, 1.11%, 1.47%, and 1.40% lower than compensator-based IMRT, respectively. Conclusion Considering the treatment conditions, the definition of dose volume constraints for healthy tissues, and the equal volume of organs in both treatment methods, SAS radiation therapy by providing a lower integral dose seems to be more advantageous and efficient for prostate cancer treatment, compared to compensator-based IMRT.

The economic implications of carbon cycle uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James A.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the implications of uncertainty in the carbon cycle for the cost of stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations. Using a state of the art integrated assessment model, we find that uncertainty in our understanding of the carbon cycle has significant implications for the costs of a climate stabilization policy, with cost differences denominated in trillions of dollars. Uncertainty in the carbon cycle is equivalent to a change in concentration target of up to 100 ppmv. The impact of carbon cycle uncertainties are smaller than those for climate sensitivity, and broadly comparable to the effect of uncertainty in technology availability

Evaluation of the uncertainty in an EBT3 film dosimetry system utilizing net optical density

Science.gov (United States)

Marroquin, Elsa Y. León; Herrera González, José A.; Camacho López, Miguel A.; Barajas, José E. Villarreal

2016-01-01

Radiochromic film has become an important tool to verify dose distributions for intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and quality assurance (QA) procedures. A new radiochromic film model, EBT3, has recently become available, whose composition and thickness of the sensitive layer are the same as those of previous EBT2 films. However, a matte polyester layer was added to EBT3 to prevent the formation of Newton's rings. Furthermore, the symmetrical design of EBT3 allows the user to eliminate side‐orientation dependence. This film and the flatbed scanner, Epson Perfection V750, form a dosimetry system whose intrinsic characteristics were studied in this work. In addition, uncertainties associated with these intrinsic characteristics and the total uncertainty of the dosimetry system were determined. The analysis of the response of the radiochromic film (net optical density) and the fitting of the experimental data to a potential function yielded an uncertainty of 2.6%, 4.3%, and 4.1% for the red, green, and blue channels, respectively. In this work, the dosimetry system presents an uncertainty in resolving the dose of 1.8% for doses greater than 0.8 Gy and less than 6 Gy for red channel. The films irradiated between 0 and 120 Gy show differences in the response when scanned in portrait or landscape mode; less uncertainty was found when using the portrait mode. The response of the film depended on the position on the bed of the scanner, contributing an uncertainty of 2% for the red, 3% for the green, and 4.5% for the blue when placing the film around the center of the bed of scanner. Furthermore, the uniformity and reproducibility radiochromic film and reproducibility of the response of the scanner contribute less than 1% to the overall uncertainty in dose. Finally, the total dose uncertainty was 3.2%, 4.9%, and 5.2% for red, green, and blue channels, respectively. The above uncertainty values were obtained by minimizing the contribution to the total dose

A new approach to reduce uncertainties in space radiation cancer risk predictions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francis A Cucinotta

Full Text Available The prediction of space radiation induced cancer risk carries large uncertainties with two of the largest uncertainties being radiation quality and dose-rate effects. In risk models the ratio of the quality factor (QF to the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF parameter is used to scale organ doses for cosmic ray proton and high charge and energy (HZE particles to a hazard rate for γ-rays derived from human epidemiology data. In previous work, particle track structure concepts were used to formulate a space radiation QF function that is dependent on particle charge number Z, and kinetic energy per atomic mass unit, E. QF uncertainties where represented by subjective probability distribution functions (PDF for the three QF parameters that described its maximum value and shape parameters for Z and E dependences. Here I report on an analysis of a maximum QF parameter and its uncertainty using mouse tumor induction data. Because experimental data for risks at low doses of γ-rays are highly uncertain which impacts estimates of maximum values of relative biological effectiveness (RBEmax, I developed an alternate QF model, denoted QFγAcute where QFs are defined relative to higher acute γ-ray doses (0.5 to 3 Gy. The alternate model reduces the dependence of risk projections on the DDREF, however a DDREF is still needed for risk estimates for high-energy protons and other primary or secondary sparsely ionizing space radiation components. Risk projections (upper confidence levels (CL for space missions show a reduction of about 40% (CL∼50% using the QFγAcute model compared the QFs based on RBEmax and about 25% (CL∼35% compared to previous estimates. In addition, I discuss how a possible qualitative difference leading to increased tumor lethality for HZE particles compared to low LET radiation and background tumors remains a large uncertainty in risk estimates.

A tiered approach for integrating exposure and dosimetry with in vitro dose-response data in the modern risk assessment paradigm

Science.gov (United States)

High-throughput (HT) risk screening approaches apply in vitro dose-response data to estimate potential health risks that arise from exposure to chemicals. However, much uncertainty is inherent in relating bioactivities observed in an in vitro system to the perturbations of biolog...

TH-A-19A-04: Latent Uncertainties and Performance of a GPU-Implemented Pre-Calculated Track Monte Carlo Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud, M; Seuntjens, J; Roberge, D

2014-01-01

Purpose: Assessing the performance and uncertainty of a pre-calculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport running on graphics processing units (GPU). While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from recycling a limited number of tracks in the pre-generated track bank is missing from the literature. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal pre-generated track bank size can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pre-generated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4, respectively. The PMC algorithm for track transport was implemented on the CUDA programming framework. GPU-PMC dose distributions were compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated using general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty analysis was performed by comparing GPUPMC dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark while varying the track bank size and primary particle histories. Results: GPU-PMC dose distributions and benchmark doses were within 1% of each other in voxels with dose greater than 50% of Dmax. In proton calculations, a submillimeter distance-to-agreement error was observed at the Bragg Peak. Latent uncertainty followed a Poisson distribution with the number of tracks per energy (TPE) and a track bank of 20,000 TPE produced a latent uncertainty of approximately 1%. Efficiency analysis showed a 937× and 508× gain over a single processor core running DOSXYZnrc for 16 MeV electrons in water and bone, respectively. Conclusion: The GPU-PMC method can calculate dose distributions for electrons and protons to a statistical uncertainty below 1%. The track bank size necessary to achieve an optimal efficiency can be tuned based on the desired uncertainty. Coupled with a model to calculate dose contributions from uncharged particles, GPU-PMC is a candidate for inverse planning of modulated electron radiotherapy

Dose estimation for paediatric cranial computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curci Daros, K.A.; Bitelli Medeiros, R.; Curci Daros, K.A.; Oliveira Echeimberg, J. de

2006-01-01

In the last ten years, the number of paediatric computed tomography (CT) scans have increased worldwide, contributing to higher population radiation dose. Technique diversification in paediatrics and different CT equipment technologies have led to various exposure levels complicating precise evaluation of doses and operational conditions necessary for good quality images. The objective of this study was to establish a quantitative relationship between absorbed dose and cranial region in children up to 6 years old undergoing CT exams. Methods: X-ray was measured on the cranial surface of 64 patients undergoing CT using thermoluminescent (T.L.) dosimeters. Forty T.L.D.100 thermoluminescent dosimeters (T.L.D.) were evenly distributed on each patients skin surface along the sagittal axis. Measurements were performed in facial regions exposed to scatter radiation and in the supratentorial and posterior fossa regions, submitted to primary radiation. T.L.D. were calibrated for 120 kV X-ray over the acrylic phantom. T.L. measurements were made with a Harshaw 4000 system. Patient mean T.L. readings were determined for position, pi, of T.L.D. and normalized to the maximum supratentorial reading. From integrating the linear T.L. density function (?) resulting from radiation distribution in each of the three exposed regions, dose fraction was determined in the region of interest, along with total dose under the technical conditions used in that specific exam protocol. For each T.L.D. position along the patient cranium, there were n T.L. measurements with 2% uncertainty due to T.L. reader, and 5% due to thermal treatment of dosimeters. Also, mean T.L. readings and their uncertainties were calculated for each patient at each position, p. Results: Mean linear T.L. density for the region exposed to secondary radiation defined by position, 0.3≤p≤6 cm, was ρ((p)=7.9(4)x10 -2 +7(5)x10 -5 p 4.5(4) cm -1 ; exposed to primary X-ray for the posterior fossa region defined by position

Margins for geometric uncertainty around organs at risk in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKenzie, Alan; Herk, Marcel van; Mijnheer, Ben

2002-01-01

Background and purpose: ICRU Report 62 suggests drawing margins around organs at risk (ORs) to produce planning organ at risk volumes (PRVs) to account for geometric uncertainty in the radiotherapy treatment process. This paper proposes an algorithm for drawing such margins, and compares the recommended margin widths with examples from clinical practice and discusses the limitations of the approach. Method: The use of the PRV defined in this way is that, despite the geometric uncertainties, the dose calculated within the PRV by the treatment planning system can be used to represent the dose in the OR with a certain confidence level. A suitable level is where, in the majority of cases (90%), the dose-volume histogram of the PRV will not under-represent the high-dose components in the OR. In order to provide guidelines on how to do this in clinical practice, this paper distinguishes types of OR in terms of the tolerance doses relative to the prescription dose and suggests appropriate margins for serial-structure and parallel-structure ORs. Results: In some instances of large and parallel ORs, the clinician may judge that the complication risk in omitting a margin is acceptable. Otherwise, for all types of OR, systematic, treatment preparation uncertainties may be accommodated by an OR→PRV margin width of 1.3Σ. Here, Σ is the standard deviation of the combined systematic (treatment preparation) uncertainties. In the case of serial ORs or small, parallel ORs, the effects of blurring caused by daily treatment execution errors (set-up and organ motion) should be taken into account. Near a region of high dose, blurring tends to shift the isodoses away from the unblurred edge as shown on the treatment planning system by an amount that may be represented by 0.5σ. This margin may be used either to increase or to decrease the margin already calculated for systematic uncertainties, depending upon the size of the tolerance dose relative to the detailed planned dose

Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

2011-01-01

Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

Study of the uncertainty in estimation of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Avila, R; Beresford, N A; Agüero, A; Broed, R; Brown, J; Iospje, M; Robles, B; Suañez, A

2004-12-01

Uncertainty in estimations of the exposure of non-human biota to ionising radiation may arise from a number of sources including values of the model parameters, empirical data, measurement errors and biases in the sampling. The significance of the overall uncertainty of an exposure assessment will depend on how the estimated dose compares with reference doses used for risk characterisation. In this paper, we present the results of a study of the uncertainty in estimation of the exposure of non-human biota using some of the models and parameters recommended in the FASSET methodology. The study was carried out for semi-natural terrestrial, agricultural and marine ecosystems, and for four radionuclides (137Cs, 239Pu, 129I and 237Np). The parameters of the radionuclide transfer models showed the highest sensitivity and contributed the most to the uncertainty in the predictions of doses to biota. The most important ones were related to the bioavailability and mobility of radionuclides in the environment, for example soil-to-plant transfer factors, the bioaccumulation factors for marine biota and the gut uptake fraction for terrestrial mammals. In contrast, the dose conversion coefficients showed low sensitivity and contributed little to the overall uncertainty. Radiobiological effectiveness contributed to the overall uncertainty of the dose estimations for alpha emitters although to a lesser degree than a number of transfer model parameters.

Estimate of the uncertainties in the relative risk of secondary malignant neoplasms following proton therapy and intensity-modulated photon therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fontenot, Jonas D; Bloch, Charles; Followill, David; Titt, Uwe; Newhauser, Wayne D

2010-01-01

Theoretical calculations have shown that proton therapy can reduce the incidence of radiation-induced secondary malignant neoplasms (SMN) compared with photon therapy for patients with prostate cancer. However, the uncertainties associated with calculations of SMN risk had not been assessed. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainties in projected risks of secondary cancer following contemporary proton and photon radiotherapies for prostate cancer. We performed a rigorous propagation of errors and several sensitivity tests to estimate the uncertainty in the ratio of relative risk (RRR) due to the largest contributors to the uncertainty: the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the dose-response model for radiation carcinogenesis and interpatient variations in absorbed dose. The interval of values for the radiation weighting factor for neutrons and the dose-response model were derived from the literature, while interpatient variations in absorbed dose were taken from actual patient data. The influence of each parameter on a baseline RRR value was quantified. Our analysis revealed that the calculated RRR was insensitive to the largest contributors to the uncertainty. Uncertainties in the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the shape of the dose-risk model and interpatient variations in therapeutic and stray doses introduced a total uncertainty of 33% to the baseline RRR calculation.

Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

2016-01-01

Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

Dosimetric uncertainty in prostate cancer proton radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin Liyong; Vargas, Carlos; Hsi Wen; Indelicato, Daniel; Slopsema, Roelf; Li Zuofeng; Yeung, Daniel; Horne, Dave; Palta, Jatinder [University of Florida Proton Therapy Institute, Jacksonville, Florida 32206 (United States)

2008-11-15

Purpose: The authors we evaluate the uncertainty in proton therapy dose distribution for prostate cancer due to organ displacement, varying penumbra width of proton beams, and the amount of rectal gas inside the rectum. Methods and Materials: Proton beam treatment plans were generated for ten prostate patients with a minimum dose of 74.1 cobalt gray equivalent (CGE) to the planning target volume (PTV) while 95% of the PTV received 78 CGE. Two lateral or lateral oblique proton beams were used for each plan. The authors we investigated the uncertainty in dose to the rectal wall (RW) and the bladder wall (BW) due to organ displacement by comparing the dose-volume histograms (DVH) calculated with the original or shifted contours. The variation between DVHs was also evaluated for patients with and without rectal gas in the rectum for five patients who had 16 to 47 cc of visible rectal gas in their planning computed tomography (CT) imaging set. The uncertainty due to the varying penumbra width of the delivered protons for different beam setting options on the proton delivery system was also evaluated. Results: For a 5 mm anterior shift, the relative change in the RW volume receiving 70 CGE dose (V{sub 70}) was 37.9% (5.0% absolute change in 13.2% of a mean V{sub 70}). The relative change in the BW volume receiving 70 CGE dose (V{sub 70}) was 20.9% (4.3% absolute change in 20.6% of a mean V{sub 70}) with a 5 mm inferior shift. A 2 mm penumbra difference in beam setting options on the proton delivery system resulted in the relative variations of 6.1% (0.8% absolute change) and 4.4% (0.9% absolute change) in V{sub 70} of RW and BW, respectively. The data show that the organ displacements produce absolute DVH changes that generally shift the entire isodose line while maintaining the same shape. The overall shape of the DVH curve for each organ is determined by the penumbra and the distance of the target in beam's eye view (BEV) from the block edge. The beam setting

Dosimetric uncertainty in prostate cancer proton radiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Liyong; Vargas, Carlos; Hsi, Wen; Indelicato, Daniel; Slopsema, Roelf; Li, Zuofeng; Yeung, Daniel; Horne, Dave; Palta, Jatinder

2008-11-01

The authors we evaluate the uncertainty in proton therapy dose distribution for prostate cancer due to organ displacement, varying penumbra width of proton beams, and the amount of rectal gas inside the rectum. Proton beam treatment plans were generated for ten prostate patients with a minimum dose of 74.1 cobalt gray equivalent (CGE) to the planning target volume (PTV) while 95% of the PTV received 78 CGE. Two lateral or lateral oblique proton beams were used for each plan. The authors we investigated the uncertainty in dose to the rectal wall (RW) and the bladder wall (BW) due to organ displacement by comparing the dose-volume histograms (DVH) calculated with the original or shifted contours. The variation between DVHs was also evaluated for patients with and without rectal gas in the rectum for five patients who had 16 to 47 cc of visible rectal gas in their planning computed tomography (CT) imaging set. The uncertainty due to the varying penumbra width of the delivered protons for different beam setting options on the proton delivery system was also evaluated. For a 5 mm anterior shift, the relative change in the RW volume receiving 70 CGE dose (V70) was 37.9% (5.0% absolute change in 13.2% of a mean V70). The relative change in the BW volume receiving 70 CGE dose (V70) was 20.9% (4.3% absolute change in 20.6% of a mean V70) with a 5 mm inferior shift. A 2 mm penumbra difference in beam setting options on the proton delivery system resulted in the relative variations of 6.1% (0.8% absolute change) and 4.4% (0.9% absolute change) in V70 of RW and BW, respectively. The data show that the organ displacements produce absolute DVH changes that generally shift the entire isodose line while maintaining the same shape. The overall shape of the DVH curve for each organ is determined by the penumbra and the distance of the target in beam's eye view (BEV) from the block edge. The beam setting option producing a 2 mm sharper penumbra at the isocenter can reduce the

Model uncertainties in top-quark physics

CERN Document Server

Seidel, Markus

2014-01-01

The ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are studying the top quark in pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV. Due to the large integrated luminosity, precision measurements of production cross-sections and properties are often limited by systematic uncertainties. An overview of the modeling uncertainties for simulated events is given in this report.

Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

An integrated bi-level optimization model for air quality management of Beijing's energy system under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Nie, S

2018-05-15

In this study, an interval chance-constrained bi-level programming (ICBP) method is developed for air quality management of municipal energy system under uncertainty. ICBP can deal with uncertainties presented as interval values and probability distributions as well as examine the risk of violating constraints. Besides, a leader-follower decision strategy is incorporated into the optimization process where two decision makers with different goals and preferences are involved. To solve the proposed model, a bi-level interactive algorithm based on satisfactory degree is introduced into the decision-making processes. Then, an ICBP based energy and environmental systems (ICBP-EES) model is formulated for Beijing, in which air quality index (AQI) is used for evaluating the integrated air quality of multiple pollutants. Result analysis can help different stakeholders adjust their tolerances to achieve the overall satisfaction of EES planning for the study city. Results reveal that natural gas is the main source for electricity-generation and heating that could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing in future. Results also disclose that PM 10 is the major contributor to AQI. These findings can help decision makers to identify desired alternatives for EES planning and provide useful information for regional air quality management under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environment and Human Health: The Challenge of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex G. Stewart

2018-01-01

Full Text Available High quality and accurate environmental investigations and analysis are essential to any assessment of contamination and to the decision-making process thereafter. Remediation decisions may be focused by health outcomes, whether already present or a predicted risk. The variability inherent in environmental media and analysis can be quantified statistically; uncertainty in models can be reduced by additional research; deep uncertainty exists when environmental or biomedical processes are not understood, or agreed upon, or remain uncharacterized. Deep uncertainty is common where health and environment interact. Determinants of health operate from the individual’s genes to the international level; often several levels act synergistically. We show this in detail for lead (Pb. Pathways, exposure, dose and response also vary, modifying certainty. Multi-disciplinary approaches, built on high-quality environmental investigations, enable the management of complex and uncertain situations. High quality, accurate environmental investigations into pollution issues remain the cornerstone of understanding attributable health outcomes and developing appropriate responses and remediation. However, they are not sufficient on their own, needing careful integration with the wider contexts and stakeholder agendas, without which any response to the environmental assessment may very well founder. Such approaches may benefit more people than any other strategy.

A hybrid electron and photon IMRT planning technique that lowers normal tissue integral patient dose using standard hardware.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosca, Florin

2012-06-01

To present a mixed electron and photon IMRT planning technique using electron beams with an energy range of 6-22 MeV and standard hardware that minimizes integral dose to patients for targets as deep as 7.5 cm. Ten brain cases, two lung, a thyroid, an abdominal, and a parotid case were planned using two planning techniques: a photon-only IMRT (IMRT) versus a mixed modality treatment (E+IMRT) that includes an enface electron beam and a photon IMRT portion that ensures a uniform target coverage. The electron beam is delivered using a regular cutout placed in an electron cone. The electron energy was chosen to provide a good trade-off between minimizing integral dose and generating a uniform, deliverable plan. The authors choose electron energies that cover the deepest part of PTV with the 65%-70% isodose line. The normal tissue integral dose, the dose for ring structures around the PTV, and the volumes of the 75%, 50%, and 25% isosurfaces were used to compare the dose distributions generated by the two planning techniques. The normal tissue integral dose was lowered by about 20% by the E+IMRT plans compared to the photon-only IMRT ones for most studied cases. With the exception of lungs, the dose reduction associated to the E+IMRT plans was more pronounced further away from the target. The average dose ratio delivered to the 0-2 cm and the 2-4 cm ring structures for brain patients for the two planning techniques were 89.6% and 70.8%, respectively. The enhanced dose sparing away from the target for the brain patients can also be observed in the ratio of the 75%, 50%, and 25% isodose line volumes for the two techniques, which decreases from 85.5% to 72.6% and further to 65.1%, respectively. For lungs, the lateral electron beams used in the E+IMRT plans were perpendicular to the mostly anterior/posterior photon beams, generating much more conformal plans. The authors proved that even using the existing electron delivery hardware, a mixed electron/photon planning

Direct determination of the absorbed dose to water from 125I low dose-rate brachytherapy seeds using the new absorbed dose primary standard developed at ENEA-INMRI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toni, M.P.; Pimpinella, M.; Pinto, M.; Quini, M.; Cappadozzi, G.; Silvestri, C.; Bottauscio, O.

2012-01-01

Low-intensity radioactive sources emitting low-energy photons are used in the clinic for low dose-rate brachytherapy treatments of tumours. The dosimetry of these sources is based on reference air kerma rate measurements. The absorbed dose rate to water at the reference depth d 0 = 1 cm, D w , 1 cm, is then obtained by a conversion procedure with a large relative standard uncertainty of about 5%. This paper describes a primary standard developed at ENEA-INMRI to directly measure D w , 1 cm due to LDR sources. The standard is based on a large-angle and variable-volume ionization chamber, embedded in a graphite phantom and operating under 'wall-less air chamber' conditions. A set of correction and conversion factors, based on experiments and Monte Carlo simulations, are determined to obtain the value of D w , 1 cm from measurements of increment of ionization current with increasing chamber volume. The relative standard uncertainty on D w , 1 cm is 2.6%, which is appreciably lower than the current uncertainty. Characteristics of the standard, its associated uncertainty budget, and some experimental results are given for 125 I BEBIG I25.S16.C brachytherapy seeds. Finally, results of the experimental determination of the dose-rate constant 1 cm, traceable to the D w , 1 cm and the low-energy air kerma ENEA-INMRI standards, are given. The relative standard uncertainty on 1 cm is 2.9%, appreciably lower than the typical uncertainty (4.8%) of the values available in the literature. (authors)

Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kandlikar, Milind [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

1994-12-01

In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

Optimization of total arc degree for stereotactic radiotherapy by using integral biologically effective dose and irradiated volume

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Do Hoon; Kim, Dae Yong; Lee, Myung Za; Chun, Ha Chung

2001-01-01

To find the optimal values of total arc degree to protect the normal brain tissue from high dose radiation in stereotactic radiotherapy planning. With Xknife-3 planning system and 4 MV linear accelerator, the authors planned under various values of parameters. One isocenter, 12, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mm of collimator diameters, 100 deg, 200 deg, 300 deg, 400 deg, 500 deg, 600 deg, of total arc degrees, and 30 deg or 45 deg of arc intervals were used. After the completion of planning, the plans were compared each other using V 50 (the volume of normal brain that is delivered high dose radiation) and integral biologically effective dose. At 30 deg of arc interval, the values of V 50 had the decreased pattern with the increase of total arc degree in any collimator diameter. At 45 deg arc interval, up to 400 deg of total arc degree, the values of V 50 decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but at 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees, the values increased. At 30 deg of arc interval, integral biologically effective dose showed the decreased pattern with the increase of total arc degree in any collimator diameter. At 45 deg arc interval with less than 40 mm collimator diameter, the integral biologically effective dose decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but with 50 and 60 mm of collimator diameters, up to 400 deg of total arc degree, integral biologically effective dose decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but at 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees, the values increased. In the stereotactic radiotherapy planning for brain lesions, planning with 400 deg of total arc degree is optimal. Especially, when the larger collimator more than 50 mm diameter should be used, the uses of 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees make the increase of V 50 and integral biologically effective dose, Therefore stereotactic radiotherapy planning using 400 deg of total arc degree can increase the therapeutic ratio and produce the effective outcome

Variability of dose predictions for cesium-137 and radium-226 using the PRISM method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergstroem, U.; Andersson, K.; Roejder, B.

1984-01-01

The uncertainty associated with dose predictions for cesium-137 and radium-226 in a specific ecosystem has been studied. The method used is a systematic method for determining the effect of parameter uncertainties on model prediction called PRISM. The ecosystems studied are different types of lakes where the following transport processes are included: runoff of water in the lake, irrigation, transport in soil, in groundwater and in sediment. The ecosystems are modelled by the compartment principle, using the BIOPATH-code. Seven different internal exposure pathways are included. The total dose commitment for both nuclides varies about two orders of magnitude. For cesium-137 the total dose and the uncertainty are dominated by the consumption of fish. The most important factor to the total uncertainty is the concentration factor water-fish. For radium-226 the largest contributions to the total dose are the exposure pathways, fish, milk and drinking-water. Half of the uncertainty lies in the milk dose. This uncertainty is dominated by the distribution factor for milk. (orig.)

Dose calculations for irregular fields using three-dimensional first-scatter integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boesecke, R.; Scharfenberg, H.; Schlegel, W.; Hartmann, G.H.

1986-01-01

This paper describes a method of dose calculations for irregular fields which requires only the mean energy of the incident photons, the geometrical properties of the irregular field and of the therapy unit, and the attenuation coefficient of tissue. The method goes back to an approach including spatial aspects of photon scattering for inhomogeneities for the calculation of dose reduction factors as proposed by Sontag and Cunningham (1978). It is based on the separation of dose into a primary component and a scattered component. The scattered component can generally be calculated for each field by integration over dose contributions from scattering in neighbouring volume elements. The quotient of this scattering contribution in the irregular field and the scattering contribution in the equivalent open field is then the correction factor for scattering in an irregular field. A correction factor for the primary component can be calculated if the attenuation of the photons in the shielding block is properly taken into account. The correction factor is simply given by the quotient of primary photons of the irregular field and the primary photons of the open field. (author)

Gambling in Latin: incorporating uncertainty in risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gratt, L.B.; Levin, L. (IWG Corporation, San Diego, CA (United States))

1994-08-01

Risk assessment uses assumptions based on differing degrees of conservatism. This complicates the understanding of the uncertainty in the final risk estimate. Uncertainties arise from each component of the risk assessment process: source terms, atmospheric transport, exposure, and dose response. Probabilistic modeling using Monte Carlo and Latin Square sampling techniques (reference to Gambling in Latin) allows for an improved approach to risk assessment and management. 16 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

Insulator photocurrents: Application to dose rate hardening of CMOS/SOI integrated circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dupont-Nivet, E.; Coiec, Y.M.; Flament, O.; Tinel, F.

1998-01-01

Irradiation of insulators with a pulse of high energy x-rays can induce photocurrents in the interconnections of integrated circuits. The authors present, here, a new method to measure and analyze this effect together with a simple model. They also demonstrate that these insulator photocurrents have to be taken into account to obtain high levels of dose-rate hardness with CMOS on SOI integrated circuits, especially flip-flops or memory blocks of ASICs. They show that it explains some of the upsets observed in a SRAM embedded in an ASIC

Correlation and uncertainties evaluation in backscattering of entrance surface air kerma measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Teixeira, G.J.; Sousa, C.H.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P., E-mail: gt@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

The air kerma measurement is important to verify the applied doses in radiodiagnostic. The literature determines some methods to measure the entrance surface air kerma or entrance surface dose but some of this methods may increase the measurement with the backscattering. Were done setups of measurements to do correlations between them. The expanded uncertainty exceeded 5% for measurements with backscattering, reaching 8.36%, while in situations where the backscattering was avoided, the uncertainty was 3.43%. (author)

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C; Johnson, J.D; Rollstin, J.A; Shiver, A.W; Sprung, J.L

1995-01-01

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing-season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meet, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of I-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season. Reducing the uncertainty in the preceding variables was found to substantially reduce the uncertainty in the

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-10-01

[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

Science.gov (United States)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Meier, Matthias M.; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B.; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-10-01

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests

Uncertainty of Doppler reactivity worth due to uncertainties of JENDL-3.2 resonance parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zukeran, Atsushi [Hitachi Ltd., Hitachi, Ibaraki (Japan). Power and Industrial System R and D Div.; Hanaki, Hiroshi; Nakagawa, Tuneo; Shibata, Keiichi; Ishikawa, Makoto

1998-03-01

Analytical formula of Resonance Self-shielding Factor (f-factor) is derived from the resonance integral (J-function) based on NR approximation and the analytical expression for Doppler reactivity worth ({rho}) is also obtained by using the result. Uncertainties of the f-factor and Doppler reactivity worth are evaluated on the basis of sensitivity coefficients to the resonance parameters. The uncertainty of the Doppler reactivity worth at 487{sup 0}K is about 4 % for the PNC Large Fast Breeder Reactor. (author)

Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

1981-01-01

Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data

An uncertainty analysis using the NRPB accident consequence code Marc

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, J.A.; Crick, M.J.; Simmonds, J.R.

1991-01-01

This paper describes an uncertainty analysis of MARC calculations of the consequences of accidental releases of radioactive materials to atmosphere. A total of 98 parameters describing the transfer of material through the environment to man, the doses received, and the health effects resulting from these doses, was considered. The uncertainties in the numbers of early and late health effects, numbers of people affected by countermeasures, the amounts of food restricted and the economic costs of the accident were estimated. This paper concentrates on the results for early death and fatal cancer for a large hypothetical release from a PWR

Integrated offering strategy for profit enhancement of distributed resources and demand response in microgrids considering system uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shayeghi, H.; Sobhani, B.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Modelling mathematical integration of the proposed central bidding strategy for microgrids. • Considering and modelling the intra-market for adjusting the energy imbalances. • Analyzing effect of uncertainty of demand response and imbalance prices in profit of MG components. - Abstract: Due to the uncertain nature and limited predictability of wind and PV generated power, these resources participating in most of electricity markets are subject to significant deviation penalties during market settlements. In order to balance the unpredicted wind and PV power variations, system operators need to schedule additional reserves. This paper presents the optimal integrated participation model of wind and PV energy including demand response, storage devices, and dispatchable distributed generations in microgrids or virtual microgrids to increase their revenues in the intra-market. This market is considered 3–7 h before the delivered time, so that the amount of the contracted energy could be updated to reduce the produced power deviation of microgrid. A stochastic programming approach is considered in the development of the proposed bidding strategies for microgrid producers and loads. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of several scenarios and simultaneously treating three kinds of uncertainty including wind and PV power, intra-market, and imbalance prices. In order to predict these uncertainty variables, a neuro-fuzzy based approach has been applied. Historic data are used to forecast future prices and wind and PV power production in the adjustment markets. Also, a probabilistic approach based on the error of forecasted and real historic data is considered for estimating the future IM and imbalance prices of wind and PV produced power. Further, a test case is applied to example the microgrid using the Spanish market rules during one week, month, and year period to illustrate the potential benefits of the proposed joint

Comparison of IMRT Treatment Plans Between Linac and Helical Tomotherapy Based on Integral Dose and Inhomogeneity Index

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Chengyu; Penagaricano, Jose; Papanikolaou, Niko

2008-01-01

Intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is an advanced treatment technology for radiation therapy. There are several treatment planning systems (TPS) that can generate IMRT plans. These plans may show different inhomogeneity indices to the planning target volume (PTV) and integral dose to organs at risk (OAR). In this study, we compared clinical cases covering different anatomical treatment sites, including head and neck, brain, lung, prostate, pelvis, and cranio-spinal axis. Two treatment plans were developed for each case using Pinnacle 3 and helical tomotherapy (HT) TPS. The inhomogeneity index of the PTV and the non-tumor integral dose (NTID) were calculated and compared for each case. Despite the difference in the number of effective beams, in several cases, NTID did not increase from HT as compared to the step-and-shoot delivery method. Six helical tomotherapy treatment plans for different treatment sites have been analyzed and compared against corresponding step-and-shoot plans generated with the Pinnacle 3 planning system. Results show that HT may produce plans with smaller integral doses to healthy organs, and fairly homogeneous doses to the target as compared to linac-based step-and-shoot IMRT planning in special treatment site such as cranio-spinal

Integral Dose and Radiation-Induced Secondary Malignancies: Comparison between Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy and Three-Dimensional Conformal Radiotherapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefano G. Masciullo

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to compare the integral dose received by non-tumor tissue (NTID in stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT with modified LINAC with that received by three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT, estimating possible correlations between NTID and radiation-induced secondary malignancy risk. Eight patients with intrathoracic lesions were treated with SBRT, 23 Gy × 1 fraction. All patients were then replanned for 3D-CRT, maintaining the same target coverage and applying a dose scheme of 2 Gy × 32 fractions. The dose equivalence between the different treatment modalities was achieved assuming α/β = 10Gy for tumor tissue and imposing the same biological effective dose (BED on the target (BED = 76Gy10. Total NTIDs for both techniques was calculated considering α/β = 3Gy for healthy tissue. Excess absolute cancer risk (EAR was calculated for various organs using a mechanistic model that includes fractionation effects. A paired two-tailed Student t-test was performed to determine statistically significant differences between the data (p ≤ 0.05. Our study indicates that despite the fact that for all patients integral dose is higher for SBRT treatments than 3D-CRT (p = 0.002, secondary cancer risk associated to SBRT patients is significantly smaller than that calculated for 3D-CRT (p = 0.001. This suggests that integral dose is not a good estimator for quantifying cancer induction. Indeed, for the model and parameters used, hypofractionated radiotherapy has the potential for secondary cancer reduction. The development of reliable secondary cancer risk models seems to be a key issue in fractionated radiotherapy. Further assessments of integral doses received with 3D-CRT and other special techniques are also strongly encouraged.

A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

2014-12-01

Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

Radiation Parameters of High Dose Rate Iridium -192 Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Podgorsak, Matthew B.

A lack of physical data for high dose rate (HDR) Ir-192 sources has necessitated the use of basic radiation parameters measured with low dose rate (LDR) Ir-192 seeds and ribbons in HDR dosimetry calculations. A rigorous examination of the radiation parameters of several HDR Ir-192 sources has shown that this extension of physical data from LDR to HDR Ir-192 may be inaccurate. Uncertainty in any of the basic radiation parameters used in dosimetry calculations compromises the accuracy of the calculated dose distribution and the subsequent dose delivery. Dose errors of up to 0.3%, 6%, and 2% can result from the use of currently accepted values for the half-life, exposure rate constant, and dose buildup effect, respectively. Since an accuracy of 5% in the delivered dose is essential to prevent severe complications or tumor regrowth, the use of basic physical constants with uncertainties approaching 6% is unacceptable. A systematic evaluation of the pertinent radiation parameters contributes to a reduction in the overall uncertainty in HDR Ir-192 dose delivery. Moreover, the results of the studies described in this thesis contribute significantly to the establishment of standardized numerical values to be used in HDR Ir-192 dosimetry calculations.

Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rommel N. Carvalho

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.

Report on the uncertainty methods study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-06-01

The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced 'best estimate' thermal-hydraulic codes: the Pisa method (based on extrapolation from integral experiments) and four methods identifying and combining input uncertainties. Three of these, the GRS, IPSN and ENUSA methods, use subjective probability distributions, and one, the AEAT method, performs a bounding analysis. Each method has been used to calculate the uncertainty in specified parameters for the LSTF SB-CL-18 5% cold leg small break LOCA experiment in the ROSA-IV Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). The uncertainty analysis was conducted essentially blind and the participants did not use experimental measurements from the test as input apart from initial and boundary conditions. Participants calculated uncertainty ranges for experimental parameters including pressurizer pressure, primary circuit inventory and clad temperature (at a specified position) as functions of time

Analysis of the effect of the uncertainties geometrical in treatment prostate with tomotheraphy helical

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sevillano Martinez, D.; Minguez Aguilar, C.; Sanchez Jimenez, A.; Sanchez Reyes, A.

2015-01-01

this work has of two parts: first is have evaluated the uncertainties geometric of 27 patients of prostate of our unit to starting of the corrections daily produced through a Protocol online with MVCT. On these corrections is has simulated a Protocol offline NAL (not Action Level) on the first three sessions. To these uncertainties is you have added a uncertainties systematic of stroke equal to the published by Van Herk (IJORBP, 1999). Is simulated also our Protocol online assuming as only source of errors systematic those from of the contouring, while that as errors random is meant value of SD = 2 mm in all the directions as estimate of the movement intra fraction of the prostate. The second part consists of the simulation of these Protocols about 20 plans real of TomoTherapy. For every Protocol analyzed is got 4000 histogram dose volume. To split of these histograms we get to your time histograms population dose of three metrics, the equivalent uniform dose widespread summarized in a single value radiobiological effects of the dose distribution on PTV, the minimum dose and the average dose. (Author)

Biosphere model for assessing doses from nuclear waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zach, R.; Amiro, B.D.; Davis, P.A.; Sheppard, S.C.; Szekeley, J.G.

1994-01-01

The biosphere model, BIOTRAC, for predicting long term nuclide concentrations and radiological doses from Canada's nuclear fuel waste disposal concept of a vault deep in plutonic rock of the Canadian Shield is presented. This generic, boreal zone biosphere model is based on scenario analysis and systems variability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Conservatism is used to bridge uncertainties, even though this creates a small amount of extra nuclide mass. Environmental change over the very long assessment period is mainly handled through distributed parameter values. The dose receptors are a critical group of humans and four generic non-human target organisms. BIOTRAC includes six integrated submodels and it interfaces smoothly with a geosphere model. This interface includes a bedrock well. The geosphere model defines the discharge zones of deep groundwater where nuclides released from the vault enter the biosphere occupied by the dose receptors. The size of one of these zones is reduced when water is withdrawn from the bedrock well. Sensitivity analysis indicates 129 I is by far the most important radionuclide. Results also show bedrock-well water leads to higher doses to man than lake water, but the former doses decrease with the size of the critical group. Under comparable circumstances, doses to the non-human biota are greater than those for man

Uncertainties associated with geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kocher, D.C.; Sjoreen, A.L.; Bard, C.S.; Olsen, C.R.

1982-01-01

This paper focuses on uncertainties associated with models for predicting: (1) groundwater transport of radionuclides between a repository and the biosphere; and (2) long-term collective dose and health effects following release of long-lived radionuclides to the biosphere. We do not present numerical estimates of uncertainties in such predictions. Rather, we emphasize the various sources of uncertainty and attempt to evaluate the extent to which current models and supporting data bases can realistically describe long-term repository performance and health risks. We do not consider uncertainties associated with the long-term performance of engineered barriers at a repository or with human intrusion

Measurements of integrated components' parameters versus irradiation doses gamma radiation (60Co) dosimetry-methodology-tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuan, J.

1991-01-01

This paper describes the methodology used for the irradiation of the integrated components and the measurements of their parameters, using Quality Insurance of dosimetry: - Measurement of the integrated dose using the competences of the Laboratoire Central des Industries Electriques (LCIE): - Measurement of irradiation dose versus source/component distance, using a calibrated equipment. - Use of ALANINE dosimeters, placed on the support of the irradiated components. - Assembly and polarization of components during the irradiations. Selection of the irradiator. - Measurement of the irradiated components's parameters, using the competences of the societies: - GenRad: GR130 tests equipement placed in the DEIN/SIR-CEN SACLAY. - Laboratoire Central des Industries Electriques (LCIE): GR125 tests equipment and this associated programmes test [fr

Dose estimation for paediatric cranial computed tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curci Daros, K.A.; Bitelli Medeiros, R. [Sao Paulo Univ. Federal (Brazil); Curci Daros, K.A.; Oliveira Echeimberg, J. de [Centro Univ. Sao Camilo, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

2006-07-01

In the last ten years, the number of paediatric computed tomography (CT) scans have increased worldwide, contributing to higher population radiation dose. Technique diversification in paediatrics and different CT equipment technologies have led to various exposure levels complicating precise evaluation of doses and operational conditions necessary for good quality images. The objective of this study was to establish a quantitative relationship between absorbed dose and cranial region in children up to 6 years old undergoing CT exams. Methods: X-ray was measured on the cranial surface of 64 patients undergoing CT using thermoluminescent (T.L.) dosimeters. Forty T.L.D.100 thermoluminescent dosimeters (T.L.D.) were evenly distributed on each patients skin surface along the sagittal axis. Measurements were performed in facial regions exposed to scatter radiation and in the supratentorial and posterior fossa regions, submitted to primary radiation. T.L.D. were calibrated for 120 kV X-ray over the acrylic phantom. T.L. measurements were made with a Harshaw 4000 system. Patient mean T.L. readings were determined for position, pi, of T.L.D. and normalized to the maximum supratentorial reading. From integrating the linear T.L. density function (?) resulting from radiation distribution in each of the three exposed regions, dose fraction was determined in the region of interest, along with total dose under the technical conditions used in that specific exam protocol. For each T.L.D. position along the patient cranium, there were n T.L. measurements with 2% uncertainty due to T.L. reader, and 5% due to thermal treatment of dosimeters. Also, mean T.L. readings and their uncertainties were calculated for each patient at each position, p. Results: Mean linear T.L. density for the region exposed to secondary radiation defined by position, 0.3{<=}p{<=}6 cm, was {rho}((p)=7.9(4)x10{sup -2}+7(5)x10{sup -5}p{sup 4.5(4)} cm{sup -1}; exposed to primary X-ray for the posterior fossa

Uncertainty mitigation through the integration with production history matching; Mitigacao de incertezas atraves da integracao com ajuste de historico de producao

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becerra, Gustavo G. [PETROBRAS Energia S.A. (Brazil); Maschio, Celio [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil); Schiozer, Denis [Universidade de Cuiaba (UNIC), MT (Brazil)

2008-07-01

The scope of this work is to present a methodology that integrates the uncertainty analysis with the history matching process in complex models. This procedure helps to detect critical subsurface attributes and their possible variation, in order to estimate a representative range of the additional reserves to be developed. It is not an objective to obtain the best deterministic model, but to mitigate uncertainties by using observed data. The methodology presented in this work is applied, on global scale, in a complex dynamic model based on Namorado Field data. The methodology allows the redefinition of the probability and levels of the dynamic and static attributes in order: to reduce the group of possible history matching obtaining more realistic models; to identify the existent uncertainty as a function of observed data; to decrease the uncertainty range of critical reservoir parameters; to increase the confidence in production forecast. One contribution of this work is to present a quantitative approach to increase the reliability on the use of reservoir simulation as an auxiliary tool in decision processes. (author)

Uncertainties in planned dose due to the limited voxel size of the planning CT when treating lung tumors with proton therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Espana, Samuel; Paganetti, Harald

2011-01-01

Dose calculation for lung tumors can be challenging due to the low density and the fine structure of the geometry. The latter is not fully considered in the CT image resolution used in treatment planning causing the prediction of a more homogeneous tissue distribution. In proton therapy, this could result in predicting an unrealistically sharp distal dose falloff, i.e. an underestimation of the distal dose falloff degradation. The goal of this work was the quantification of such effects. Two computational phantoms resembling a two-dimensional heterogeneous random lung geometry and a swine lung were considered applying a variety of voxel sizes for dose calculation. Monte Carlo simulations were used to compare the dose distributions predicted with the voxel size typically used for the treatment planning procedure with those expected to be delivered using the finest resolution. The results show, for example, distal falloff position differences of up to 4 mm between planned and expected dose at the 90% level for the heterogeneous random lung (assuming treatment plan on a 2 x 2 x 2.5 mm 3 grid). For the swine lung, differences of up to 38 mm were seen when airways are present in the beam path when the treatment plan was done on a 0.8 x 0.8 x 2.4 mm 3 grid. The two-dimensional heterogeneous random lung phantom apparently does not describe the impact of the geometry adequately because of the lack of heterogeneities in the axial direction. The differences observed in the swine lung between planned and expected dose are presumably due to the poor axial resolution of the CT images used in clinical routine. In conclusion, when assigning margins for treatment planning for lung cancer, proton range uncertainties due to the heterogeneous lung geometry and CT image resolution need to be considered.

An end-to-end assessment of range uncertainty in proton therapy using animal tissues

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yuanshui; Kang, Yixiu; Zeidan, Omar; Schreuder, Niek

2016-11-01

Accurate assessment of range uncertainty is critical in proton therapy. However, there is a lack of data and consensus on how to evaluate the appropriate amount of uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to quantify the range uncertainty in various treatment conditions in proton therapy, using transmission measurements through various animal tissues. Animal tissues, including a pig head, beef steak, and lamb leg, were used in this study. For each tissue, an end-to-end test closely imitating patient treatments was performed. This included CT scan simulation, treatment planning, image-guided alignment, and beam delivery. Radio-chromic films were placed at various depths in the distal dose falloff region to measure depth dose. Comparisons between measured and calculated doses were used to evaluate range differences. The dose difference at the distal falloff between measurement and calculation depends on tissue type and treatment conditions. The estimated range difference was up to 5, 6 and 4 mm for the pig head, beef steak, and lamb leg irradiation, respectively. Our study shows that the TPS was able to calculate proton range within about 1.5% plus 1.5 mm. Accurate assessment of range uncertainty in treatment planning would allow better optimization of proton beam treatment, thus fully achieving proton beams’ superior dose advantage over conventional photon-based radiation therapy.

Iso-uncertainty control in an experimental fluoroscopy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddique, S.; Fiume, E.; Jaffray, D. A.

2014-01-01

Purpose: X-ray fluoroscopy remains an important imaging modality in a number of image-guided procedures due to its real-time nature and excellent spatial detail. However, the radiation dose delivered raises concerns about its use particularly in lengthy treatment procedures (>0.5 h). The authors have previously presented an algorithm that employs feedback of geometric uncertainty to control dose while maintaining a desired targeting uncertainty during fluoroscopic tracking of fiducials. The method was tested using simulations of motion against controlled noise fields. In this paper, the authors embody the previously reported method in a physical prototype and present changes to the controller required to function in a practical setting. Methods: The metric for feedback used in this study is based on the trace of the covariance of the state of the system, tr(C). The state is defined here as the 2D location of a fiducial on a plane parallel to the detector. A relationship between this metric and the tube current is first developed empirically. This relationship is extended to create a manifold that incorporates a latent variable representing the estimated background attenuation. The manifold is then used within the controller to dynamically adjust the tube current and maintain a specified targeting uncertainty. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, an acrylic sphere (1.6 mm in diameter) was tracked at tube currents ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 mA (0.033 s) at a fixed energy of 80 kVp. The images were acquired on a Varian Paxscan 4030A (2048 × 1536 pixels, ∼100 cm source-to-axis distance, ∼160 cm source-to-detector distance). The sphere was tracked using a particle filter under two background conditions: (1) uniform sheets of acrylic and (2) an acrylic wedge. The measured tr(C) was used in conjunction with a learned manifold to modulate the tube current in order to maintain a specified uncertainty as the sphere traversed regions of varying thickness

Optimization under uncertainty of a biomass-integrated renewable energy microgrid with energy storage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zheng, Yingying; Jenkins, Bryan M.; Kornbluth, Kurt

2018-01-01

Deterministic constrained optimization and stochastic optimization approaches were used to evaluate uncertainties in biomass-integrated microgrids supplying both electricity and heat. An economic linear programming model with a sliding time window was developed to assess design and scheduling...... of biomass combined heat and power (BCHP) based microgrid systems. Other available technologies considered within the microgrid were small-scale wind turbines, photovoltaic modules (PV), producer gas storage, battery storage, thermal energy storage and heat-only boilers. As an illustrative example, a case...... study was examined for a conceptual utility grid-connected microgrid application in Davis, California. The results show that for the assumptions used, a BCHP/PV with battery storage combination is the most cost effective design based on the assumed energy load profile, local climate data, utility tariff...

The role of swift relationship and institutional structures in uncertainty reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huang, Q.; Ou, Carol; Davison, R.M.

2016-01-01

Uncertainty has been regarded as the most prominent barrier in ecommerce. However, how communication between buyers and seller contributes to a reduction in uncertainty is under-investigated. Integrating uncertainty reduction theory and relational contract theory, we develop a model that explain how

Total Dose Effects on Bipolar Integrated Circuits at Low Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, A. H.; Swimm, R. T.; Thorbourn, D. O.

2012-01-01

Total dose damage in bipolar integrated circuits is investigated at low temperature, along with the temperature dependence of the electrical parameters of internal transistors. Bandgap narrowing causes the gain of npn transistors to decrease far more at low temperature compared to pnp transistors, due to the large difference in emitter doping concentration. When irradiations are done at temperatures of -140 deg C, no damage occurs until devices are warmed to temperatures above -50 deg C. After warm-up, subsequent cooling shows that damage is then present at low temperature. This can be explained by the very strong temperature dependence of dispersive transport in the continuous-time-random-walk model for hole transport. For linear integrated circuits, low temperature operation is affected by the strong temperature dependence of npn transistors along with the higher sensitivity of lateral and substrate pnp transistors to radiation damage.

Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleš Mlakar

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

1999-01-01

This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Sampson, Andrew J; Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Williamson, Jeffrey; Malusek, Alexandr

2012-01-01

Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantification of design margins and safety factors based on the prediction uncertainty in tritium production rate from fusion integral experiments of the USDOE/JAERI collaborative program on fusion blanket neutronics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youssef, M.Z.; Konno, C.; Maekawa, F.; Ikeda, Y.; Kosako, K.; Nakagawa, M.; Mori, T.; Maekawa, H.

1995-01-01

Several fusion integral experiments were performed within a collaboration between the USA and Japan on fusion breeder neutronics aimed at verifying the prediction accuracy of key neutronics parameters in a fusion reactor blanket based on current neutron transport codes and basic nuclear databases. The focus has been on the tritium production rate (TRP) as an important design parameter to resolve the issue of tritium self-sufficiency in a fusion reactor. In this paper, the calculational and experimental uncertainties (errors) in local TPR in each experiment performed i were interpolated and propagated to estimate the prediction uncertainty u i in the line-integrated TPR and its standard deviation σ i . The measured data are based on Li-glass and NE213 detectors. From the quantities u i and σ i , normalized density functions (NDFs) were constructed, considering all the experiments and their associated analyses performed independently by the UCLA and JAERI. Several statistical parameters were derived, including the mean prediction uncertainties u and the possible spread ±σ u around them. Design margins and safety factors were derived from these NDFs. Distinction was made between the results obtained by UCLA and JAERI and between calculational results based on the discrete ordinates and Monte Carlo methods. The prediction uncertainties, their standard deviations and the design margins and safety factors were derived for the line-integrated TPR from Li-6 T 6 , and Li-7 T 7 . These parameters were used to estimate the corresponding uncertainties and safety factor for the line-integrated TPR from natural lithium T n . (orig.)

Model structural uncertainty quantification and hydrogeophysical data integration using airborne electromagnetic data (Invited)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Minsley, Burke; Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen

of airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to estimate large-scale model structural geometry, i.e. the spatial distribution of different lithological units based on assumed or estimated resistivity-lithology relationships, and the uncertainty in those structures given imperfect measurements. Geophysically derived...... estimates of model structural uncertainty are then combined with hydrologic observations to assess the impact of model structural error on hydrologic calibration and prediction errors. Using a synthetic numerical model, we describe a sequential hydrogeophysical approach that: (1) uses Bayesian Markov chain...... Monte Carlo (McMC) methods to produce a robust estimate of uncertainty in electrical resistivity parameter values, (2) combines geophysical parameter uncertainty estimates with borehole observations of lithology to produce probabilistic estimates of model structural uncertainty over the entire AEM...

Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

2015-10-01

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO₂ concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

Setup uncertainties: consequences for multi-isocentre stereotactic radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebert, M.A.; Harper, C.S.

2000-01-01

Full text: Beam data for use in dose calculations by planning systems is generally measured under static and controlled conditions. Yet, patient motion and setup uncertainties will effectively blur the resulting dose distributions leading to a discrepancy between planned and delivered dose distributions. This is particularly so for stereotactic radiotherapy where small well-defined fields are used. When multiple isocentres are used (possibly for larger irregular lesions), relative motion of isocentres due to setup variations may have deleterious effects on the intended radiation delivery. The influence of setup uncertainties was examined by performing a three-dimensional convolution of measured off-axis ratio (OAR) data with a Maxwellian distribution, with standard deviations representing several feasible levels of inaccuracy in patient setup. A sample of patient plans (predominantly multi-isocentre plans) were then considered using original (measured) OAR data, and then modified data in order to observe the resulting effect. The effect of systematic localisation error was also considered by examining resulting DVHs as isocentres were shifted by fixed amounts. In all cases considered, the maximum dose varied quite minimally with increase in setup error with the variation decreasing with increasing high-dose volume. The minimum dose however varied more significantly, and this has serious consequences for dose prescription as the minimum dose can be the controlling factor in treatment efficacy. For multi-isocentre plans, the degree of non-uniformity generated by setup error was not as significant as originally expected. This is in part due to the non-uniformity already present in such plans to begin with. Through incorporation of the effect of setup error into planning data, the influence of setup variations on dose distributions for multi-isocentre treatments has been determined. This influence should be considered when creating plans based on the level of spatial

Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and conventional three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for high-grade gliomas: Does IMRT increase the integral dose to normal brain?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermanto, Ulrich; Frija, Erik K.; Lii, MingFwu J.; Chang, Eric L.; Mahajan, Anita; Woo, Shiao Y.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To determine whether intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatment increases the total integral dose of nontarget tissue relative to the conventional three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) technique for high-grade gliomas. Methods and Materials: Twenty patients treated with 3D-CRT for glioblastoma multiforme were selected for a comparative dosimetric evaluation with IMRT. Original target volumes, organs at risk (OAR), and dose-volume constraints were used for replanning with IMRT. Predicted isodose distributions, cumulative dose-volume histograms of target volumes and OAR, normal tissue integral dose, target coverage, dose conformity, and normal tissue sparing with 3D-CRT and IMRT planning were compared. Statistical analyses were performed to determine differences. Results: In all 20 patients, IMRT maintained equivalent target coverage, improved target conformity (conformity index [CI] 95% 1.52 vs. 1.38, p mean by 19.8% and D max by 10.7%), optic chiasm (D mean by 25.3% and D max by 22.6%), right optic nerve (D mean by 37.3% and D max by 28.5%), and left optic nerve (D mean by 40.6% and D max by 36.7%), p ≤ 0.01. This was achieved without increasing the total nontarget integral dose by greater than 0.5%. Overall, total integral dose was reduced by 7-10% with IMRT, p < 0.001, without significantly increasing the 0.5-5 Gy low-dose volume. Conclusions: These results indicate that IMRT treatment for high-grade gliomas allows for improved target conformity, better critical tissue sparing, and importantly does so without increasing integral dose and the volume of normal tissue exposed to low doses of radiation

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

Treatment of measurement uncertainties at the power burst facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, L.C.

1980-01-01

The treatment of measurement uncertainty at the Power Burst Facility provides a means of improving data integrity as well as meeting standard practice reporting requirements. This is accomplished by performing the uncertainty analysis in two parts, test independent uncertainty analysis and test dependent uncertainty analysis. The test independent uncertainty analysis is performed on instrumentation used repeatedly from one test to the next, and does not have to be repeated for each test except for improved or new types of instruments. A test dependent uncertainty analysis is performed on each test based on the test independent uncertainties modified as required by test specifications, experiment fixture design, and historical performance of instruments on similar tests. The methodology for performing uncertainty analysis based on the National Bureau of Standards method is reviewed with examples applied to nuclear instrumentation

Efficiency of analytical and sampling-based uncertainty propagation in intensity-modulated proton therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, N.; Hennig, P.; Wieser, H. P.; Bangert, M.

2017-07-01

The sensitivity of intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) treatment plans to uncertainties can be quantified and mitigated with robust/min-max and stochastic/probabilistic treatment analysis and optimization techniques. Those methods usually rely on sparse random, importance, or worst-case sampling. Inevitably, this imposes a trade-off between computational speed and accuracy of the uncertainty propagation. Here, we investigate analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) as an alternative for uncertainty propagation and minimization in IMPT that does not rely on scenario sampling. APM propagates probability distributions over range and setup uncertainties via a Gaussian pencil-beam approximation into moments of the probability distributions over the resulting dose in closed form. It supports arbitrary correlation models and allows for efficient incorporation of fractionation effects regarding random and systematic errors. We evaluate the trade-off between run-time and accuracy of APM uncertainty computations on three patient datasets. Results are compared against reference computations facilitating importance and random sampling. Two approximation techniques to accelerate uncertainty propagation and minimization based on probabilistic treatment plan optimization are presented. Runtimes are measured on CPU and GPU platforms, dosimetric accuracy is quantified in comparison to a sampling-based benchmark (5000 random samples). APM accurately propagates range and setup uncertainties into dose uncertainties at competitive run-times (GPU ≤slant {5} min). The resulting standard deviation (expectation value) of dose show average global γ{3% / {3}~mm} pass rates between 94.2% and 99.9% (98.4% and 100.0%). All investigated importance sampling strategies provided less accuracy at higher run-times considering only a single fraction. Considering fractionation, APM uncertainty propagation and treatment plan optimization was proven to be possible at constant time complexity

Intensity modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal cancer: the sensitivity of plan objectives and constraints to set-up uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ploquin, Nicolas; Song, William; Lau, Harold; Dunscombe, Peter

2005-01-01

The goal of this study was to assess the impact of set-up uncertainty on compliance with the objectives and constraints of an intensity modulated radiation therapy protocol for early stage cancer of the oropharynx. As the convolution approach to the quantitative study of set-up uncertainties cannot accommodate either surface contours or internal inhomogeneities, both of which are highly relevant to sites in the head and neck, we have employed the more resource intensive direct simulation method. The impact of both systematic (variable from 0 to 6 mm) and random (fixed at 2 mm) set-up uncertainties on compliance with the criteria of the RTOG H-0022 protocol has been examined for eight geometrically complex structures: CTV66 (gross tumour volume and palpable lymph nodes suspicious for metastases), CTV54 (lymph node groups or surgical neck levels at risk of subclinical metastases), glottic larynx, spinal cord, brainstem, mandible and left and right parotids. In a probability-based approach, both dose-volume histograms and equivalent uniform doses were used to describe the dose distributions achieved by plans for two patients, in the presence of set-up uncertainty. The equivalent uniform dose is defined to be that dose which, when delivered uniformly to the organ of interest, will lead to the same response as the non-uniform dose under consideration. For systematic set-up uncertainties greater than 2 mm and 5 mm respectively, coverage of the CTV66 and CTV54 could be significantly compromised. Directional sensitivity was observed in both cases. Most organs at risk (except the glottic larynx which did not comply under static conditions) continued to meet the dose constraints up to 4 mm systematic uncertainty for both plans. The exception was the contra lateral parotid gland, which this protocol is specifically designed to protect. Sensitivity to systematic set-up uncertainty of 2 mm was observed for this organ at risk in both clinical plans

Assessment of diurnal systemic dose of agrochemicals in regulatory toxicity testing--an integrated approach without additional animal use.

Science.gov (United States)

Saghir, Shakil A; Bartels, Michael J; Rick, David L; McCoy, Alene T; Rasoulpour, Reza J; Ellis-Hutchings, Robert G; Sue Marty, M; Terry, Claire; Bailey, Jason P; Billington, Richard; Bus, James S

2012-07-01

Integrated toxicokinetics (TK) data provide information on the rate, extent and duration of systemic exposure across doses, species, strains, gender, and life stages within a toxicology program. While routine for pharmaceuticals, TK assessments of non-pharmaceuticals are still relatively rare, and have never before been included in a full range of guideline studies for a new agrochemical. In order to better understand the relationship between diurnal systemic dose (AUC(24h)) and toxicity of agrochemicals, TK analyses in the study animals is now included in all short- (excluding acute), medium- and long-term guideline mammalian toxicity studies including reproduction/developmental tests. This paper describes a detailed procedure for the implementation of TK in short-, medium- and long-term regulatory toxicity studies, without the use of satellite animals, conducted on three agrochemicals (X11422208, 2,4-D and X574175). In these studies, kinetically-derived maximum doses (KMD) from short-term studies instead of, or along with, maximum tolerated doses (MTD) were used for the selection of the high dose in subsequent longer-term studies. In addition to leveraging TK data to guide dose level selection, the integrated program was also used to select the most appropriate method of oral administration (i.e., gavage versus dietary) of test materials for rat and rabbit developmental toxicity studies. The integrated TK data obtained across toxicity studies (without the use of additional/satellite animals) provided data critical to understanding differences in response across doses, species, strains, sexes, and life stages. Such data should also be useful in mode of action studies and to improve human risk assessments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tank Z-361 dose rate calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richard, R.F.

1998-01-01

Neutron and gamma ray dose rates were calculated above and around the 6-inch riser of tank Z-361 located at the Plutonium Finishing Plant. Dose rates were also determined off of one side of the tank. The largest dose rate 0.029 mrem/h was a gamma ray dose and occurred 76.2 cm (30 in.) directly above the open riser. All other dose rates were negligible. The ANSI/ANS 1991 flux to dose conversion factor for neutrons and photons were used in this analysis. Dose rates are reported in units of mrem/h with the calculated uncertainty shown within the parentheses

Comparison of linear and nonlinear programming approaches for "worst case dose" and "minmax" robust optimization of intensity-modulated proton therapy dose distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaghian, Maryam; Cao, Wenhua; Liu, Wei; Kardar, Laleh; Randeniya, Sharmalee; Mohan, Radhe; Lim, Gino

2017-03-01

Robust optimization of intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) takes uncertainties into account during spot weight optimization and leads to dose distributions that are resilient to uncertainties. Previous studies demonstrated benefits of linear programming (LP) for IMPT in terms of delivery efficiency by considerably reducing the number of spots required for the same quality of plans. However, a reduction in the number of spots may lead to loss of robustness. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance in terms of plan quality and robustness of two robust optimization approaches using LP and nonlinear programming (NLP) models. The so-called "worst case dose" and "minmax" robust optimization approaches and conventional planning target volume (PTV)-based optimization approach were applied to designing IMPT plans for five patients: two with prostate cancer, one with skull-based cancer, and two with head and neck cancer. For each approach, both LP and NLP models were used. Thus, for each case, six sets of IMPT plans were generated and assessed: LP-PTV-based, NLP-PTV-based, LP-worst case dose, NLP-worst case dose, LP-minmax, and NLP-minmax. The four robust optimization methods behaved differently from patient to patient, and no method emerged as superior to the others in terms of nominal plan quality and robustness against uncertainties. The plans generated using LP-based robust optimization were more robust regarding patient setup and range uncertainties than were those generated using NLP-based robust optimization for the prostate cancer patients. However, the robustness of plans generated using NLP-based methods was superior for the skull-based and head and neck cancer patients. Overall, LP-based methods were suitable for the less challenging cancer cases in which all uncertainty scenarios were able to satisfy tight dose constraints, while NLP performed better in more difficult cases in which most uncertainty scenarios were hard to meet

Uncertainties associated with the use of optically stimulated luminescence in personal dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benevides, L.; Romanyukha, A.; Hull, F.; Duffy, M.; Voss, S.; Moscovitch, M.

2011-01-01

This study investigates several sources of uncertainty associated with the application of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to personal dosimetry. A commercial OSL system based on Al 2 O 3 :C was used for this study. First, it is demonstrated that the concept of repeated evaluation (readout) of the same dosemeter, often referred to as 're-analysis', can introduce uncertainty in the re-estimated dose. This uncertainty is associated with the fact that the re-analysis process depletes some of the populated traps, resulting in a continuous decrease of the OSL signal with each repeated reading. Furthermore, the rate of depletion may be dose-dependent. Second, it is shown that the previously reported light-induced fading in this system is the result of light leaks through miniature openings in the dosemeter badge. (authors)

Integrated doses calculation in evacuation scenarios of the neutron generator facility at Missouri S&T

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sharma, Manish K.; Alajo, Ayodeji B., E-mail: alajoa@mst.edu

2016-08-11

Any source of ionizing radiations could lead to considerable dose acquisition to individuals in a nuclear facility. Evacuation may be required when elevated levels of radiation is detected within a facility. In this situation, individuals are more likely to take the closest exit. This may not be the most expedient decision as it may lead to higher dose acquisition. The strategy followed in preventing large dose acquisitions should be predicated on the path that offers least dose acquisition. In this work, the neutron generator facility at Missouri University of Science and Technology was analyzed. The Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code was used to model the entire floor of the generator's building. The simulated dose rates in the hallways were used to estimate the integrated doses for different paths leading to exits. It was shown that shortest path did not always lead to minimum dose acquisition and the approach was successful in predicting the expedient path as opposed to the approach of taking the nearest exit.

Gaussian Process Interpolation for Uncertainty Estimation in Image Registration

Science.gov (United States)

Wachinger, Christian; Golland, Polina; Reuter, Martin; Wells, William

2014-01-01

Intensity-based image registration requires resampling images on a common grid to evaluate the similarity function. The uncertainty of interpolation varies across the image, depending on the location of resampled points relative to the base grid. We propose to perform Bayesian inference with Gaussian processes, where the covariance matrix of the Gaussian process posterior distribution estimates the uncertainty in interpolation. The Gaussian process replaces a single image with a distribution over images that we integrate into a generative model for registration. Marginalization over resampled images leads to a new similarity measure that includes the uncertainty of the interpolation. We demonstrate that our approach increases the registration accuracy and propose an efficient approximation scheme that enables seamless integration with existing registration methods. PMID:25333127

Dosimetric evaluation of the OneDoseTM MOSFET for measuring kilovoltage imaging dose from image-guided radiotherapy procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, George X; Coffey, Charles W

2010-09-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of using a single-use dosimeter, OneDose MOSFET designed for in vivo patient dosimetry, for measuring the radiation dose from kilovoltage (kV) x rays resulting from image-guided procedures. The OneDose MOSFET dosimeters were precalibrated by the manufacturer using Co-60 beams. Their energy response and characteristics for kV x rays were investigated by using an ionization chamber, in which the air-kerma calibration factors were obtained from an Accredited Dosimetry Calibration Laboratory (ADCL). The dosimetric properties have been tested for typical kV beams used in image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT). The direct dose reading from the OneDose system needs to be multiplied by a correction factor ranging from 0.30 to 0.35 for kilovoltage x rays ranging from 50 to 125 kVp, respectively. In addition to energy response, the OneDose dosimeter has up to a 20% reduced sensitivity for beams (70-125 kVp) incident from the back of the OneDose detector. The uncertainty in measuring dose resulting from a kilovoltage beam used in IGRT is approximately 20%; this uncertainty is mainly due to the sensitivity dependence of the incident beam direction relative to the OneDose detector. The ease of use may allow the dosimeter to be suitable for estimating the dose resulting from image-guided procedures.

Determination and reliability of dose coefficients for radiopharmaceuticals; Ermittlung der Zuverlaessigkeit von Dosiskoeffizienten fuer Radiopharmaka

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spielmann, V.; Li, W.B.; Zankl, M.; Oeh, U.

2015-11-15

The dose coefficients used in nuclear medicine for dose calculations of radiopharmaceuticals are based on recommendations by ICRP (International Commission on radiological protection) and the MIRD (Medical Internal Radiation Dose Committee) using mathematical models for the temporal activity distributions in organs and tissues (biokinetic models) and mathematical models of the human body. These models using an idealized human body do not include uncertainty estimations. The research project is aimed to determine the uncertainties and thus the reliability of the dose coefficients for radiopharmaceuticals and to identify the biokinetic and dosimetric parameters that contribute most of the uncertainties.

The study of influence of relevant physical parameters variations on the estimates of the effective doses of Rn-222

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ridzikova, A.; Fronka, A.; Moucka, L.

2004-01-01

Based on the analysis of 12 weekly continuous measurements and 4 integral measurements performed in different seasons in actual apartment rooms, bedrooms in particular, we attempted to identify the uncertainties that are involved in the estimation of radiation doses to lung tissues. We found that the parameters of time of residence, concentration, and equilibrium factor can affect substantially the estimate of the overall early effective dose. The weekly averaged concentration measured in one term is not sufficient for a fairly accurate estimate; actually, the equilibrium factor f must also be known and the actual real individual time of residence must be estimated if we want to adopt this approach to the dose estimation

Links among available integral benchmarks and differential date evaluations, computational biases and uncertainties, and nuclear criticality safety biases on potential MOX production throughput

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goluoglu, S.; Hopper, C.M.

2004-01-01

Through the use of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's recently developed and applied sensitivity and uncertainty computational analysis techniques, this paper presents the relevance and importance of available and needed integral benchmarks and differential data evaluations impacting potential MOX production throughput determinations relative to low-moderated MOX fuel blending operations. The relevance and importance in the availability of or need for critical experiment benchmarks and data evaluations are presented in terms of computational biases as influenced by computational and experimental sensitivities and uncertainties relative to selected MOX production powder blending processes. Recent developments for estimating the safe margins of subcriticality for assuring nuclear criticality safety for process approval are presented. In addition, the impact of the safe margins (due to computational biases and uncertainties) on potential MOX production throughput will also be presented. (author)

High dose-per-pulse electron beam dosimetry: Usability and dose-rate independence of EBT3 Gafchromic films.

Science.gov (United States)

Jaccard, Maud; Petersson, Kristoffer; Buchillier, Thierry; Germond, Jean-François; Durán, Maria Teresa; Vozenin, Marie-Catherine; Bourhis, Jean; Bochud, François O; Bailat, Claude

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to assess the suitability of Gafchromic EBT3 films for reference dose measurements in the beam of a prototype high dose-per-pulse linear accelerator (linac), capable of delivering electron beams with a mean dose-rate (Ḋ m ) ranging from 0.07 to 3000 Gy/s and a dose-rate in pulse (Ḋ p ) of up to 8 × 10 6 Gy/s. To do this, we evaluated the overall uncertainties in EBT3 film dosimetry as well as the energy and dose-rate dependence of their response. Our dosimetric system was composed of EBT3 Gafchromic films in combination with a flatbed scanner and was calibrated against an ionization chamber traceable to primary standard. All sources of uncertainties in EBT3 dosimetry were carefully analyzed using irradiations at a clinical radiotherapy linac. Energy dependence was investigated with the same machine by acquiring and comparing calibration curves for three different beam energies (4, 8 and 12 MeV), for doses between 0.25 and 30 Gy. Ḋ m dependence was studied at the clinical linac by changing the pulse repetition frequency (f) of the beam in order to vary Ḋ m between 0.55 and 4.40 Gy/min, while Ḋ p dependence was probed at the prototype machine for Ḋ p ranging from 7 × 10 3 to 8 × 10 6 Gy/s. Ḋ p dependence was first determined by studying the correlation between the dose measured by films and the charge of electrons measured at the exit of the machine by an induction torus. Furthermore, we compared doses from the films to independently calibrated thermo-luminescent dosimeters (TLD) that have been reported as being dose-rate independent up to such high dose-rates. We report that uncertainty below 4% (k = 2) can be achieved in the dose range between 3 and 17 Gy. Results also demonstrated that EBT3 films did not display any detectable energy dependence for electron beam energies between 4 and 12 MeV. No Ḋ m dependence was found either. In addition, we obtained excellent consistency between films and TLDs over the entire Ḋ p

Key uncertainties in climate change policy: Results from ICAM-2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.

1995-12-31

A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to: inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives; and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.0. This model includes demographics, economic activities, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate change, sea level rise and other impact modules and the numerous associated feedbacks. The model has over 700 objects of which over 1/3 are uncertain. These have been grouped into seven different classes of uncertain items. The impact of uncertainties in each of these items can be considered individually or in combinations with the others. In this paper we demonstrate the relative contribution of various sources of uncertainty to different outcomes in the model. The analysis shows that climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. Extreme uncertainties in indirect aerosol forcing and behavioral response to climate change (adaptation) were characterized by using bounding analyses; the results suggest that these extreme uncertainties can dominate the choice of policy outcomes.

Peer review of HEDR uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffman, F.O.

1993-06-01

This report consists of a detailed documentation of the writings and deliberations of the peer review panel that met on May 24--25, 1993 in Richland, Washington to evaluate your draft report ``Uncertainty/Sensitivity Analysis Plan`` (PNWD-2124 HEDR). The fact that uncertainties are being considered in temporally and spatially varying parameters through the use of alternative time histories and spatial patterns deserves special commendation. It is important to identify early those model components and parameters that will have the most influence on the magnitude and uncertainty of the dose estimates. These are the items that should be investigated most intensively prior to committing to a final set of results.

A dose assessment for a U.S. nuclear test site -- Bikini Atoll

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robison, W.L.; Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.

1993-07-01

On March 1, 1954, a nuclear weapon test, code-named BRAVO, conducted at Bikini Atoll in the northern Marshall Islands contaminated the major residence island. Here the authors provide a radiological dose assessment for the main residence island, Bikini, using extensive radionuclide concentration data derived from analysis of food crops, ground water, cistern water, fish and other marine species, animals, air, and soil collected at Bikini Island. The unique composition of coral soil greatly alters the relative contribution of cesium-137 and strontium-90 to the total estimated dose relative to expectations based on North American and European soils. Cesium-137 produces 96% of the estimated dose for returning residents, mostly through uptake from the soil to terrestrial food crops but also from external gamma exposure. The estimated maximum annual effective dose is 4.4 mSv y -1 when imported foods, which are now an established part of the diet, are available. The 30-, 50-, and 70-y integral effective doses are 10 cSv, 14 cSv, and 16 cSv, respectively. An analysis of interindividual variability in 0- to 30-y expected integral dose indicates that 95% of Bikini residents would have expected doses within a factor of 3.4 above and 4.8 below the population-average value. A corresponding uncertainty analysis showed that after about 5 y of residence, the 95% confidence limits on population-average dose would be ±35% of its expected value. The authors have evaluated various countermeasures to reduce 137 Cs in food crops. Treatment with potassium reduces the uptake of 137 Cs into food crops, and therefore the ingestion dose, to less than 10% of pretreatment levels and has essentially no negative environmental consequences

Risk at Low Doses: Scientific knowledge, uncertainties and management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giusssani, A.; Ballarini, F.; Ottolenghi, A.

2002-01-01

Most of the applications of ionizing radiation in the medical field, for the exposed workers as well as the majority of patients undergoing diagnostic examinations, can be seen as low situations. Epidemiological information is however available for dose and dose rates higher than the values typical of most medical situation. Main source of information is the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese. A-bomb survivors, supplemented by studies of selected groups of exposed workers (uranium miners, radium painters) or radiotherapy patients with a detailed follow-up history. All of these group studies, however, suffer from one or more of the following limitations: - lack of adequate dosimetry - lack of a reliable control group for the necessary comparison - influence of concomitant factors (not always easy to find out) - influence of social conditions. In addition exposed study populations are different than the population of patients for which the risk estimates are needed in the medical situation. Recent studies aimed to evaluate the available data on the cohorts of the inhabitants of the Techa river settlements as well as of the workers of the Mayak nuclear facilities may provide in the future useful information on large populations chronically exposed to relatively low doses. (Author)

In defence of collective dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fairlie, I.; Sumner, D.

2000-01-01

Recent proposals for a new scheme of radiation protection leave little room for collective dose estimations. This article discusses the history and present use of collective doses for occupational, ALARA, EIS and other purposes with reference to practical industry papers and government reports. The linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis suggests that collective doses which consist of very small doses added together should be used. Moral and ethical questions are discussed, particularly the emphasis on individual doses to the exclusion of societal risks, uncertainty over effects into the distant future and hesitation over calculating collective detriments. It is concluded that for moral, practical and legal reasons, collective dose is a valid parameter which should continue to be used. (author)

An Automation System for Optimizing a Supply Chain Network Design under the Influence of Demand Uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Polany, Rany

2012-01-01

This research develops and applies an integrated hierarchical framework for modeling a multi-echelon supply chain network design, under the influence of demand uncertainty. The framework is a layered integration of two levels: macro, high-level scenario planning combined with micro, low-level Monte Carlo simulation of uncertainties in demand. To facilitate rapid simulation of the effects of demand uncertainty, the integrated framework was implemented as a dashboard automation system using Mic...

IMRT dose fractionation for head and neck cancer: Variation in current approaches will make standardisation difficult

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ho, Kean F. (Academic Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Univ. of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom)); Fowler, Jack F. (Dept. of Human Oncology and Medical Physics, Univ. of Wisconsin, Wisconsin (United States)); Sykes, Andrew J.; Yap, Beng K.; Lee, Lip W.; Slevin, Nick J. (Dept. of Clinical Oncology, Christie Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester (United Kingdom))

2009-04-15

Introduction. Altered fractionation has demonstrated clinical benefits compared to the conventional 2 Gy/day standard of 70 Gy. When using synchronous chemotherapy, there is uncertainty about optimum fractionation. IMRT with its potential for Simultaneous Integrated Boost (SIB) adds further to this uncertainty. This survey will examine international practice of IMRT fractionation and suggest possible reasons for diversity in approach. Material and methods. Fourteen international cancer centres were surveyed for IMRT dose/fractionation practised in each centre. Results. Twelve different types of dose fractionation were reported. Conventional 70-72 Gy (daily 2 Gy/fraction) was used in 3/14 centres with concurrent chemotherapy while 11/14 centres used altered fractionation. Two centres used >1 schedule. Reported schedules and number of centres included 6 fractions/week DAHANCA regime (3), modest hypofractionation (=2.2 Gy/fraction) (3), dose-escalated hypofractionation (=2.3 Gy/fraction) (4), hyperfractionation (1), continuous acceleration (1) and concomitant boost (1). Reasons for dose fractionation variability include (i) dose escalation; (ii) total irradiated volume; (iii) number of target volumes; (iv) synchronous systemic treatment; (v) shorter overall treatment time; (vi) resources availability; (vii) longer time on treatment couch; (viii) variable GTV margins; (ix) confidence in treatment setup; (x) late tissue toxicity and (xi) use of lower neck anterior fields. Conclusions. This variability in IMRT fractionation makes any meaningful comparison of treatment results difficult. Some standardization is needed particularly for design of multi-centre randomized clinical trials.

Treatment simulation approaches for the estimation of the distributions of treatment quality parameters generated by geometrical uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baum, C; Alber, M; Birkner, M; Nuesslin, F

2004-01-01

Geometric uncertainties arise during treatment planning and treatment and mean that dose-dependent parameters such as EUD are random variables with a patient specific probability distribution. Treatment planning with highly conformal treatment techniques such as intensity modulated radiation therapy requires new evaluation tools which allow us to estimate this influence of geometrical uncertainties on the probable treatment dose for a planned dose distribution. Monte Carlo simulations of treatment courses with recalculation of the dose according to the daily geometric errors are a gold standard for such an evaluation. Distribution histograms which show the relative frequency of a treatment quality parameter in the treatment simulations can be used to evaluate the potential risks and chances of a planned dose distribution. As treatment simulations with dose recalculation are very time consuming for sufficient statistical accuracy, it is proposed to do treatment simulations in the dose parameter space where the result is mainly determined by the systematic and random component of the geometrical uncertainties. Comparison of the parameter space simulation method with the gold standard for prostate cases and a head and neck case shows good agreement as long as the number of fractions is high enough and the influence of tissue inhomogeneities and surface curvature on the dose is small

Evaluation of pull production control strategies under uncertainty: An integrated fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aydin Torkabadi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Just-In-Time (JIT production has continuously been considered by industrial practitioners and researchers as a leading strategy for the yet popular Lean production. Pull Production Control Policies (PPCPs are the major enablers of JIT that locally control the level of inventory by authorizing the production in each station. Aiming to improve the PPCPs, three authorization mechanisms: Kanban, constant-work-in-process (ConWIP, and a hybrid system, are evaluated by considering uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM methods are successful in evaluating alternatives with respect to several objectives. The proposed approach of this study applies the fuzzy set theory together with an integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP and a Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS method. Findings: The study finds that hybrid Kanban-ConWIP pull production control policies have a better performance in controlling the studied multi-layer multi-stage manufacturing and assembly system. Practical implications: To examine the approach a real case from automobile electro mechanical part production industry is studied. The production system consists of multiple levels of manufacturing, feeding a multi-stage assembly line with stochastic processing times to satisfy the changing demand. Originality/value: This study proposes the integrated Kanban-ConWIP hybrid pull control policies and implements several alternatives on a multi-stage and multi-layer manufacturing and assembly production system. An integrated Fuzzy AHP TOPSIS method is developed to evaluate the alternatives with respect to several JIT criteria.

Estimating Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Amante, C.; Mesick, S.

2017-12-01

Integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) are representations of the Earth's solid surface and are fundamental to the modeling of coastal processes, including tsunami, storm surge, and sea-level rise inundation. Deviations in elevation values from the actual seabed or land surface constitute errors in DEMs, which originate from numerous sources, including: (i) the source elevation measurements (e.g., multibeam sonar, lidar), (ii) the interpolative gridding technique (e.g., spline, kriging) used to estimate elevations in areas unconstrained by source measurements, and (iii) the datum transformation used to convert bathymetric and topographic data to common vertical reference systems. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the errors from these sources are typically unknown, and the lack of knowledge regarding these errors represents the vertical uncertainty in the DEM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has developed DEMs for more than 200 coastal communities. This study presents a methodology developed at NOAA NCEI to derive accompanying uncertainty surfaces that estimate DEM errors at the individual cell-level. The development of high-resolution (1/9th arc-second), integrated bathymetric-topographic DEMs along the southwest coast of Florida serves as the case study for deriving uncertainty surfaces. The estimated uncertainty can then be propagated into the modeling of coastal processes that utilize DEMs. Incorporating the uncertainty produces more reliable modeling results, and in turn, better-informed coastal management decisions.

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Application of stochastic programming to reduce uncertainty in quality-based supply planning of slaughterhouses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijpkema, W.A.; Hendrix, E.M.T.; Rossi, R.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

2016-01-01

To match products of different quality with end market preferences under supply uncertainty, it is crucial to integrate product quality information in logistics decision making. We present a case of this integration in a meat processing company that faces uncertainty in delivered livestock quality.

Integration of the Uncertainties of Anion and TOC Measurements into the Flammability Control Strategy for Sludge Batch 8 at the DWPF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, T. B.

2013-01-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has been working with the Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) in the development and implementation of a flammability control strategy for DWPF's melter operation during the processing of Sludge Batch 8 (SB8). SRNL's support has been in response to technical task requests that have been made by SRR's Waste Solidification Engineering (WSE) organization. The flammability control strategy relies on measurements that are performed on Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) samples by the DWPF Laboratory. Measurements of nitrate, oxalate, formate, and total organic carbon (TOC) standards generated by the DWPF Laboratory are presented in this report, and an evaluation of the uncertainties of these measurements is provided. The impact of the uncertainties of these measurements on DWPF's strategy for controlling melter flammability also is evaluated. The strategy includes monitoring each SME batch for its nitrate content and its TOC content relative to the nitrate content and relative to the antifoam additions made during the preparation of the SME batch. A linearized approach for monitoring the relationship between TOC and nitrate is developed, equations are provided that integrate the measurement uncertainties into the flammability control strategy, and sample calculations for these equations are shown to illustrate the impact of the uncertainties on the flammability control strategy

Adaptation of mechano-graphy to the measurement of integrated doses (1962); Adaptation de la mecanographie pour la comptabilisation des doses integrees (1962)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tabardel-Brian, R; Dulau, J [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Centre de Production de Plutonium, Marcoule (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1962-07-01

Because of the increasing number of workers exposed to nuclear radiation, and with a view to avoiding doses above the maximum permissible dose for these workers, it was necessary to find a system whereby the total irradiation assimilated during periods of 3 and 12 consecutive months could be known and circulated rapidly, within 48 hours. The method chosen for this requires the services of the Mechano-graphic service of the Marcoule Centre. The present article describes the mechanical data processing solution to this problem. (authors) [French] Devant le nombre croissant de travailleurs appeles a etre exposes a une irradiation d'origine nucleaire et avec le souci constant d'eviter les depassements de Dose Maximum Admissible a ces agents, il convenait de trouver un systeme de diffusion de doses integrees capable de nous renseigner, dans un delai de 48 h, sur le capital irradiation integre au cours des periodes 3 mois et 12 mois consecutifs. Le mode de diffusion retenu fait appel aux services de l'Atelier Mecanographie du Centre de Marcoule. Le present rapport expose la solution mecanographique apportee a ce probleme. (auteurs)

Test methods of total dose effects in very large scale integrated circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Chaohui; Geng Bin; He Baoping; Yao Yujuan; Li Yonghong; Peng Honglun; Lin Dongsheng; Zhou Hui; Chen Yusheng

2004-01-01

A kind of test method of total dose effects (TDE) is presented for very large scale integrated circuits (VLSI). The consumption current of devices is measured while function parameters of devices (or circuits) are measured. Then the relation between data errors and consumption current can be analyzed and mechanism of TDE in VLSI can be proposed. Experimental results of 60 Co γ TDEs are given for SRAMs, EEPROMs, FLASH ROMs and a kind of CPU

Uncertain analysis of preclosure accident doses for the Yucca Mountain repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, C.W.; Miller, D.D.; Zavoshy, S.J.; Jardine, L.J.

1990-01-01

This study presents a generic methodology that can be used to evaluate the uncertainty in the calculated accidental offsite doses at the Yucca Mountain repository during the preclosure period. For demonstration purposes, this methodology is applied to two specific accident scenarios: the first involves a crane dropping an open container with consolidated fuel rods, the second involves container failure during emplacement or removal operations. The uncertainties of thirteen parameters are quantified by various types of probability distributions. The Latin Hypercube Sampling method is used to evaluate the uncertainty of the offsite dose. For the crane-drop scenario with concurrent filter failure, the doses due to the release of airborne fuel particles are calculated to be 0.019, 0.32, and 2.8 rem at confidence levels of 10%, 50%, and 90%, respectively. For the container failure scenario with concurrent filter failure, the 90% confidence-level dose is 0.21 rem. 20 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

Analysis of the NAEG model of transuranic radionuclide transport and dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kercher, J.R.; Anspaugh, L.R.

1984-01-01

We analyze the model for estimating the dose FR-om /sup 239/Pu developed for the Nevada Applied Ecology Group (NAEG) by using sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis results suggest that the air pathway is the critical pathway for the organs receiving the highest dose. Soil concentration and the factors controlling air concentration are the most important parameters. The only organ whose dose is sensitive to parameters in the ingestion pathway is the GI tract. The air pathway accounts for 100% of the dose to lung, upper respiratory tract, and thoracic lymph nodes; and 95% of its dose via ingestion. Leafy vegetable ingestion accounts for 70% of the dose FR-om the ingestion pathway regardless of organ, peeled vegetables 20%; accidental soil ingestion 5%; ingestion of beef liver 4%; beef muscle 1%. Only a handful of model parameters control the dose for any one organ. The number of important parameters is usually less than 10. Uncertainty analysis indicates that choosing a uniform distribution for the input parameters produces a lognormal distribution of the dose. The ratio of the square root of the variance to the mean is three times greater for the doses than it is for the individual parameters. As found by the sensitivity analysis, the uncertainty analysis suggests that only a few parameters control the dose for each organ. All organs have similar distributions and variance to mean ratios except for the lymph modes. 16 references, 9 figures, 13 tables

Analysis of the NAEG model of transuranic radionuclide transport and dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kercher, J.R.; Anspaugh, L.R.

1984-11-01

We analyze the model for estimating the dose from 239 Pu developed for the Nevada Applied Ecology Group (NAEG) by using sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analysis results suggest that the air pathway is the critical pathway for the organs receiving the highest dose. Soil concentration and the factors controlling air concentration are the most important parameters. The only organ whose dose is sensitive to parameters in the ingestion pathway is the GI tract. The air pathway accounts for 100% of the dose to lung, upper respiratory tract, and thoracic lymph nodes; and 95% of its dose via ingestion. Leafy vegetable ingestion accounts for 70% of the dose from the ingestion pathway regardless of organ, peeled vegetables 20%; accidental soil ingestion 5%; ingestion of beef liver 4%; beef muscle 1%. Only a handful of model parameters control the dose for any one organ. The number of important parameters is usually less than 10. Uncertainty analysis indicates that choosing a uniform distribution for the input parameters produces a lognormal distribution of the dose. The ratio of the square root of the variance to the mean is three times greater for the doses than it is for the individual parameters. As found by the sensitivity analysis, the uncertainty analysis suggests that only a few parameters control the dose for each organ. All organs have similar distributions and variance to mean ratios except for the lymph modes. 16 references, 9 figures, 13 tables