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Sample records for integrated dose uncertainties

  1. Notes on the effect of dose uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, M.D.

    1987-01-01

    The apparent dose-response relationship between amount of exposure to acute radiation and level of mortality in humans is affected by uncertainties in the dose values. It is apparent that one of the greatest concerns regarding the human data from Hiroshima and Nagasaki is the unexpectedly shallow slope of the dose response curve. This may be partially explained by uncertainty in the dose estimates. Some potential effects of dose uncertainty on the apparent dose-response relationship are demonstrated

  2. Uncertainties on lung doses from inhaled plutonium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puncher, Matthew; Birchall, Alan; Bull, Richard K

    2011-10-01

    In a recent epidemiological study, Bayesian uncertainties on lung doses have been calculated to determine lung cancer risk from occupational exposures to plutonium. These calculations used a revised version of the Human Respiratory Tract Model (HRTM) published by the ICRP. In addition to the Bayesian analyses, which give probability distributions of doses, point estimates of doses (single estimates without uncertainty) were also provided for that study using the existing HRTM as it is described in ICRP Publication 66; these are to be used in a preliminary analysis of risk. To infer the differences between the point estimates and Bayesian uncertainty analyses, this paper applies the methodology to former workers of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), who constituted a subset of the study cohort. The resulting probability distributions of lung doses are compared with the point estimates obtained for each worker. It is shown that mean posterior lung doses are around two- to fourfold higher than point estimates and that uncertainties on doses vary over a wide range, greater than two orders of magnitude for some lung tissues. In addition, we demonstrate that uncertainties on the parameter values, rather than the model structure, are largely responsible for these effects. Of these it appears to be the parameters describing absorption from the lungs to blood that have the greatest impact on estimates of lung doses from urine bioassay. Therefore, accurate determination of the chemical form of inhaled plutonium and the absorption parameter values for these materials is important for obtaining reliable estimates of lung doses and hence risk from occupational exposures to plutonium.

  3. On uncertainties in definition of dose equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, Keiji

    1995-01-01

    The author has entertained always the doubt that in a neutron field, if the measured value of the absorbed dose with a tissue equivalent ionization chamber is 1.02±0.01 mGy, may the dose equivalent be taken as 10.2±0.1 mSv. Should it be 10.2 or 11, but the author considers it is 10 or 20. Even if effort is exerted for the precision measurement of absorbed dose, if the coefficient being multiplied to it is not precise, it is meaningless. [Absorbed dose] x [Radiation quality fctor] = [Dose equivalent] seems peculiar. How accurately can dose equivalent be evaluated ? The descriptions related to uncertainties in the publications of ICRU and ICRP are introduced, which are related to radiation quality factor, the accuracy of measuring dose equivalent and so on. Dose equivalent shows the criterion for the degree of risk, or it is considered only as a controlling quantity. The description in the ICRU report 1973 related to dose equivalent and its unit is cited. It was concluded that dose equivalent can be considered only as the absorbed dose being multiplied by a dimensionless factor. The author presented the questions. (K.I.)

  4. Radiotherapy Dose Fractionation under Parameter Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davison, Matt; Kim, Daero; Keller, Harald

    2011-01-01

    In radiotherapy, radiation is directed to damage a tumor while avoiding surrounding healthy tissue. Tradeoffs ensue because dose cannot be exactly shaped to the tumor. It is particularly important to ensure that sensitive biological structures near the tumor are not damaged more than a certain amount. Biological tissue is known to have a nonlinear response to incident radiation. The linear quadratic dose response model, which requires the specification of two clinically and experimentally observed response coefficients, is commonly used to model this effect. This model yields an optimization problem giving two different types of optimal dose sequences (fractionation schedules). Which fractionation schedule is preferred depends on the response coefficients. These coefficients are uncertainly known and may differ from patient to patient. Because of this not only the expected outcomes but also the uncertainty around these outcomes are important, and it might not be prudent to select the strategy with the best expected outcome.

  5. Application of a Novel Dose-Uncertainty Model for Dose-Uncertainty Analysis in Prostate Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Hosang; Palta, Jatinder R.; Kim, You-Hyun; Kim, Siyong

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze dose uncertainty using a previously published dose-uncertainty model, and to assess potential dosimetric risks existing in prostate intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods and Materials: The dose-uncertainty model provides a three-dimensional (3D) dose-uncertainty distribution in a given confidence level. For 8 retrospectively selected patients, dose-uncertainty maps were constructed using the dose-uncertainty model at the 95% CL. In addition to uncertainties inherent to the radiation treatment planning system, four scenarios of spatial errors were considered: machine only (S1), S1 + intrafraction, S1 + interfraction, and S1 + both intrafraction and interfraction errors. To evaluate the potential risks of the IMRT plans, three dose-uncertainty-based plan evaluation tools were introduced: confidence-weighted dose-volume histogram, confidence-weighted dose distribution, and dose-uncertainty-volume histogram. Results: Dose uncertainty caused by interfraction setup error was more significant than that of intrafraction motion error. The maximum dose uncertainty (95% confidence) of the clinical target volume (CTV) was smaller than 5% of the prescribed dose in all but two cases (13.9% and 10.2%). The dose uncertainty for 95% of the CTV volume ranged from 1.3% to 2.9% of the prescribed dose. Conclusions: The dose uncertainty in prostate IMRT could be evaluated using the dose-uncertainty model. Prostate IMRT plans satisfying the same plan objectives could generate a significantly different dose uncertainty because a complex interplay of many uncertainty sources. The uncertainty-based plan evaluation contributes to generating reliable and error-resistant treatment plans.

  6. Analytical probabilistic proton dose calculation and range uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangert, M.; Hennig, P.; Oelfke, U.

    2014-03-01

    We introduce the concept of analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) to calculate the mean and the standard deviation of intensity-modulated proton dose distributions under the influence of range uncertainties in closed form. For APM, range uncertainties are modeled with a multivariate Normal distribution p(z) over the radiological depths z. A pencil beam algorithm that parameterizes the proton depth dose d(z) with a weighted superposition of ten Gaussians is used. Hence, the integrals ∫ dz p(z) d(z) and ∫ dz p(z) d(z)2 required for the calculation of the expected value and standard deviation of the dose remain analytically tractable and can be efficiently evaluated. The means μk, widths δk, and weights ωk of the Gaussian components parameterizing the depth dose curves are found with least squares fits for all available proton ranges. We observe less than 0.3% average deviation of the Gaussian parameterizations from the original proton depth dose curves. Consequently, APM yields high accuracy estimates for the expected value and standard deviation of intensity-modulated proton dose distributions for two dimensional test cases. APM can accommodate arbitrary correlation models and account for the different nature of random and systematic errors in fractionated radiation therapy. Beneficial applications of APM in robust planning are feasible.

  7. Methods for Addressing Uncertainty and Variability to Characterize Potential Health Risk From Trichloroethylene-Contaminated Ground Water Beale Air Force Base in California: Integration of Uncertainty and Variability in Pharmacokinetics and Dose-Response; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K.T.

    1999-01-01

    Traditional estimates of health risk are typically inflated, particularly if cancer is the dominant endpoint and there is fundamental uncertainty as to mechanism(s) of action. Risk is more realistically characterized if it accounts for joint uncertainty and interindividual variability after applying a unified probabilistic approach to the distributed parameters of all (linear as well as nonlinear) risk-extrapolation models involved. Such an approach was applied to characterize risks to potential future residents posed by trichloroethylene (TCE) in ground water at an inactive landfill site on Beale Air Force Base in California. Variability and uncertainty were addressed in exposure-route-specific estimates of applied dose, in pharmacokinetically based estimates of route-specific metabolized fractions of absorbed TCE, and in corresponding biologically effective doses estimated under a genotoxic/linear (MA(sub g)) vs. a cytotoxic/nonlinear (MA(sub c)) mechanistic assumption for TCE-induced cancer. Increased risk conditional on effective dose was estimated under MA(sub G) based on seven rodent-bioassay data sets, and under MA, based on mouse hepatotoxicity data. Mean and upper-bound estimates of combined risk calculated by the unified approach were and lt;10(sup -6) and and lt;10(sup -4), respectively, while corresponding estimates based on traditional deterministic methods were and gt;10(sup -5) and and gt;10(sup -4), respectively. It was estimated that no TCE-related harm is likely occur due any plausible residential exposure scenario involving the site. The unified approach illustrated is particularly suited to characterizing risks that involve uncertain and/or diverse mechanisms of action

  8. Correlated uncertainties in integral data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCracken, A.K.

    1978-01-01

    The use of correlated uncertainties in calculational data is shown in cases investigated to lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of calculated quantities of importance to reactor design. It is stressed however that such reductions are likely to be important in a minority of cases of practical interest. The effect of uncertainties in detector cross-sections is considered and is seen to be, in some cases, of equal importance to that in the data used in calculations. Numerical investigations have been limited by the sparse information available on data correlations; some comparisons made of these data reveal quite large inconsistencies for both detector cross-sections and cross-section of interest for reactor calculations

  9. Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oughton, D.H.; Agueero, A.; Avila, R.; Brown, J.E.; Copplestone, D.; Gilek, M.

    2008-01-01

    Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties

  10. A novel dose uncertainty model and its application for dose verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Hosang; Chung Heetaek; Liu Chihray; Palta, Jatinder; Suh, Tae-Suk; Kim, Siyong

    2005-01-01

    Based on statistical approach, a novel dose uncertainty model was introduced considering both nonspatial and spatial dose deviations. Non-space-oriented uncertainty is mainly caused by dosimetric uncertainties, and space-oriented dose uncertainty is the uncertainty caused by all spatial displacements. Assuming these two parts are independent, dose difference between measurement and calculation is a linear combination of nonspatial and spatial dose uncertainties. Two assumptions were made: (1) the relative standard deviation of nonspatial dose uncertainty is inversely proportional to the dose standard deviation σ, and (2) the spatial dose uncertainty is proportional to the gradient of dose. The total dose uncertainty is a quadratic sum of the nonspatial and spatial uncertainties. The uncertainty model provides the tolerance dose bound for comparison between calculation and measurement. In the statistical uncertainty model based on a Gaussian distribution, a confidence level of 3σ theoretically confines 99.74% of measurements within the bound. By setting the confidence limit, the tolerance bound for dose comparison can be made analogous to that of existing dose comparison methods (e.g., a composite distribution analysis, a γ test, a χ evaluation, and a normalized agreement test method). However, the model considers the inherent dose uncertainty characteristics of the test points by taking into account the space-specific history of dose accumulation, while the previous methods apply a single tolerance criterion to the points, although dose uncertainty at each point is significantly different from others. Three types of one-dimensional test dose distributions (a single large field, a composite flat field made by two identical beams, and three-beam intensity-modulated fields) were made to verify the robustness of the model. For each test distribution, the dose bound predicted by the uncertainty model was compared with simulated measurements. The simulated

  11. The US EPA reference dose for methylmercury: sources of uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, D.C.

    2004-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) derived a reference dose for methylmercury in 2001, based on an extensive analysis by the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academy of Sciences. The NRC performed benchmark dose analysis on a number of endpoints from three longitudinal prospective studies: the Seychelles Islands, the Faroe Islands, and the New Zealand studies. Adverse effects were reported in the latter two studies, but not in the Seychelles study. The NRC also performed an integrative analysis of all three studies. Dose conversion from cord blood or maternal hair mercury concentration was performed by EPA using a one-compartment pharmacokinetic model. A total uncertainty factor of 10 was applied for intrahuman pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic variability. There are numerous decisions made by the NRC/EPA that could greatly affect the value of the reference dose (RfD). Some of these include the choice of a linear model for the relationship between mercury body burden and neuropsychological performance, the choice of values of P 0 and the benchmark response, the use of the 'critical study/critical endpoint' approach in the interpretation of the maternal body burden that corresponds to the RfD, the use of central tendencies in a one-compartment pharmacokinetic model rather than the inclusion of the distributions of variables for the population of reproductive-age women, the assumption of unity for the ratio of fetal cord blood to maternal blood methylmercury concentrations, the choice of a total of 10 as an uncertainty factor, and the lack of dose-response analysis for other health effects such as cardiovascular disease. In addition, it may be argued that derivation of a RfD for methylmercury is inappropriate, given that there does not appear to be a threshold for adverse neuropsychological effects based on available data

  12. Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.

    2004-01-01

    Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem

  13. Integral dose conservation in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reese, Adam S.; Das, Shiva K.; Curle, Charles; Marks, Lawrence B.

    2009-01-01

    Treatment planners frequently modify beam arrangements and use IMRT to improve target dose coverage while satisfying dose constraints on normal tissues. The authors herein analyze the limitations of these strategies and quantitatively assess the extent to which dose can be redistributed within the patient volume. Specifically, the authors hypothesize that (1) the normalized integral dose is constant across concentric shells of normal tissue surrounding the target (normalized to the average integral shell dose), (2) the normalized integral shell dose is constant across plans with different numbers and orientations of beams, and (3) the normalized integral shell dose is constant across plans when reducing the dose to a critical structure. Using the images of seven patients previously irradiated for cancer of brain or prostate cancer and one idealized scenario, competing three-dimensional conformal and IMRT plans were generated using different beam configurations. Within a given plan and for competing plans with a constant mean target dose, the normalized integral doses within concentric ''shells'' of surrounding normal tissue were quantitatively compared. Within each patient, the normalized integral dose to shells of normal tissue surrounding the target was relatively constant (1). Similarly, for each clinical scenario, the normalized integral dose for a given shell was also relatively constant regardless of the number and orientation of beams (2) or degree of sparing of a critical structure (3). 3D and IMRT planning tools can redistribute, rather than eliminate dose to the surrounding normal tissues (intuitively known by planners). More specifically, dose cannot be moved between shells surrounding the target but only within a shell. This implies that there are limitations in the extent to which a critical structure can be spared based on the location and geometry of the critical structure relative to the target.

  14. Adult head CT scans: the uncertainties of effective dose estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text: CT scanning is a high dose imaging modality. Effective dose estimates from CT scans can provide important information to patients and medical professionals. For example, medical practitioners can use the dose to estimate the risk to the patient, and judge whether this risk is outweighed by the benefits of the CT examination, while radiographers can gauge the effect of different scanning protocols on the patient effective dose, and take this into consideration when establishing routine scan settings. Dose estimates also form an important part of epidemiological studies examining the health effects of medical radiation exposures on the wider population. Medical physicists have been devoting significant effort towards estimating patient radiation doses from diagnostic CT scans for some years. The question arises: How accurate are these effective dose estimates? The need for a greater understanding and improvement of the uncertainties in CT dose estimates is now gaining recognition as an important issue (BEIR VII 2006). This study is an attempt to analyse and quantify the uncertainty components relating to effective dose estimates from adult head CT examinations that are calculated with four commonly used methods. The dose estimation methods analysed are the Nagel method, the ImpaCT method, the Wellhoefer method and the Dose-Length Product (DLP) method. The analysis of the uncertainties was performed in accordance with the International Standards Organisation's Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement as discussed in Gregory et al (Australas. Phys. Eng. Sci. Med., 28: 131-139, 2005). The uncertainty components vary, depending on the method used to derive the effective dose estimate. Uncertainty components in this study include the statistical and other errors from Monte Carlo simulations, uncertainties in the CT settings and positions of patients in the CT gantry, calibration errors from pencil ionization chambers, the variations in the organ

  15. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  16. Estimates of bias and uncertainty in recorded external dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fix, J.J.; Gilbert, E.S.; Baumgartner, W.V.

    1994-10-01

    A study is underway to develop an approach to quantify bias and uncertainty in recorded dose estimates for workers at the Hanford Site based on personnel dosimeter results. This paper focuses on selected experimental studies conducted to better define response characteristics of Hanford dosimeters. The study is more extensive than the experimental studies presented in this paper and includes detailed consideration and evaluation of other sources of bias and uncertainty. Hanford worker dose estimates are used in epidemiologic studies of nuclear workers. A major objective of these studies is to provide a direct assessment of the carcinogenic risk of exposure to ionizing radiation at low doses and dose rates. Considerations of bias and uncertainty in the recorded dose estimates are important in the conduct of this work. The method developed for use with Hanford workers can be considered an elaboration of the approach used to quantify bias and uncertainty in estimated doses for personnel exposed to radiation as a result of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons between 1945 and 1962. This approach was first developed by a National Research Council (NRC) committee examining uncertainty in recorded film badge doses during atmospheric tests (NRC 1989). It involved quantifying both bias and uncertainty from three sources (i.e., laboratory, radiological, and environmental) and then combining them to obtain an overall assessment. Sources of uncertainty have been evaluated for each of three specific Hanford dosimetry systems (i.e., the Hanford two-element film dosimeter, 1944-1956; the Hanford multi-element film dosimeter, 1957-1971; and the Hanford multi-element TLD, 1972-1993) used to estimate personnel dose throughout the history of Hanford operations. Laboratory, radiological, and environmental sources of bias and uncertainty have been estimated based on historical documentation and, for angular response, on selected laboratory measurements

  17. Errors and Uncertainties in Dose Reconstruction for Radiation Effects Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strom, Daniel J.

    2008-04-14

    Dose reconstruction for studies of the health effects of ionizing radiation have been carried out for many decades. Major studies have included Japanese bomb survivors, atomic veterans, downwinders of the Nevada Test Site and Hanford, underground uranium miners, and populations of nuclear workers. For such studies to be credible, significant effort must be put into applying the best science to reconstructing unbiased absorbed doses to tissues and organs as a function of time. In many cases, more and more sophisticated dose reconstruction methods have been developed as studies progressed. For the example of the Japanese bomb survivors, the dose surrogate “distance from the hypocenter” was replaced by slant range, and then by TD65 doses, DS86 doses, and more recently DS02 doses. Over the years, it has become increasingly clear that an equal level of effort must be expended on the quantitative assessment of uncertainty in such doses, and to reducing and managing uncertainty. In this context, this paper reviews difficulties in terminology, explores the nature of Berkson and classical uncertainties in dose reconstruction through examples, and proposes a path forward for Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER) Project 2.4 that requires a reasonably small level of effort for DOSES-2008.

  18. Uncertainty on faecal analysis on dose assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juliao, Ligia M.Q.C.; Melo, Dunstana R.; Sousa, Wanderson de O.; Santos, Maristela S.; Fernandes, Paulo Cesar P. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria, Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear, Av. Salvador Allende s/n. Via 9, Recreio, CEP 22780-160, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2007-07-01

    Monitoring programmes for internal dose assessment may need to have a combination of bioassay techniques, e.g. urine and faecal analysis, especially in workplaces where compounds of different solubilities are handled and also in cases of accidental intakes. Faecal analysis may be an important data for assessment of committed effective dose due to exposure to insoluble compounds, since the activity excreted by urine may not be detectable, unless a very sensitive measurement system is available. This paper discusses the variability of the daily faecal excretion based on data from just one daily collection; collection during three consecutive days: samples analysed individually and samples analysed as a pool. The results suggest that just 1 d collection is not appropriate for dose assessment, since the 24 h uranium excretion may vary by a factor of 40. On the basis of this analysis, the recommendation should be faecal collection during three consecutive days, and samples analysed as a pool, it is more economic and faster. (authors)

  19. Impact of dose-distribution uncertainties on rectal ntcp modeling I: Uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenwick, John D.; Nahum, Alan E.

    2001-01-01

    A trial of nonescalated conformal versus conventional radiotherapy treatment of prostate cancer has been carried out at the Royal Marsden NHS Trust (RMH) and Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), demonstrating a significant reduction in the rate of rectal bleeding reported for patients treated using the conformal technique. The relationship between planned rectal dose-distributions and incidences of bleeding has been analyzed, showing that the rate of bleeding falls significantly as the extent of the rectal wall receiving a planned dose-level of more than 57 Gy is reduced. Dose-distributions delivered to the rectal wall over the course of radiotherapy treatment inevitably differ from planned distributions, due to sources of uncertainty such as patient setup error, rectal wall movement and variation in the absolute rectal wall surface area. In this paper estimates of the differences between planned and treated rectal dose-distribution parameters are obtained for the RMH/ICR nonescalated conformal technique, working from a distribution of setup errors observed during the RMH/ICR trial, movement data supplied by Lebesque and colleagues derived from repeat CT scans, and estimates of rectal circumference variations extracted from the literature. Setup errors and wall movement are found to cause only limited systematic differences between mean treated and planned rectal dose-distribution parameter values, but introduce considerable uncertainties into the treated values of some dose-distribution parameters: setup errors lead to 22% and 9% relative uncertainties in the highly dosed fraction of the rectal wall and the wall average dose, respectively, with wall movement leading to 21% and 9% relative uncertainties. Estimates obtained from the literature of the uncertainty in the absolute surface area of the distensible rectal wall are of the order of 13%-18%. In a subsequent paper the impact of these uncertainties on analyses of the relationship between incidences of bleeding

  20. Quantification of dose uncertainties for the bladder in prostate cancer radiotherapy based on dominant eigenmodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios, Richard; Acosta, Oscar; Lafond, Caroline; Espinosa, Jairo; de Crevoisier, Renaud

    2017-11-01

    In radiotherapy for prostate cancer the dose at the treatment planning for the bladder may be a bad surrogate of the actual delivered dose as the bladder presents the largest inter-fraction shape variations during treatment. This paper presents PCA models as a virtual tool to estimate dosimetric uncertainties for the bladder produced by motion and deformation between fractions. Our goal is to propose a methodology to determine the minimum number of modes required to quantify dose uncertainties of the bladder for motion/deformation models based on PCA. We trained individual PCA models using the bladder contours available from three patients with a planning computed tomography (CT) and on-treatment cone-beam CTs (CBCTs). Based on the above models and via deformable image registration (DIR), we estimated two accumulated doses: firstly, an accumulated dose obtained by integrating the planning dose over the Gaussian probability distribution of the PCA model; and secondly, an accumulated dose obtained by simulating treatment courses via a Monte Carlo approach. We also computed a reference accumulated dose for each patient using his available images via DIR. Finally, we compared the planning dose with the three accumulated doses, and we calculated local dose variability and dose-volume histogram uncertainties.

  1. Assessment of dose measurement uncertainty using RisoScan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helt-Hansen, Jakob; Miller, Arne

    2006-01-01

    The dose measurement uncertainty of the dosimeter system RisoScan, office scanner and Riso B3 dosimeters has been assessed by comparison with spectrophotometer measurements of the same dosimeters. The reproducibility and the combined uncertainty were found to be approximately 2% and 4%, respectively, at one standard deviation. The subroutine in RisoScan for electron energy measurement is shown to give results that are equivalent to the measurements with a scanning spectrophotometer

  2. Assessment of dose measurement uncertainty using RisøScan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helt-Hansen, J.; Miller, A.

    2006-01-01

    The dose measurement uncertainty of the dosimeter system RisoScan, office scanner and Riso B3 dosimeters has been assessed by comparison with spectrophotometer measurements of the same dosimeters. The reproducibility and the combined uncertainty were found to be approximately 2% and 4%, respectiv......%, respectively, at one standard deviation. The subroutine in RisoScan for electron energy measurement is shown to give results that are equivalent to the measurements with a scanning spectrophotometer. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  3. Impact of geometric uncertainties on dose calculations for intensity modulated radiation therapy of prostate cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Runqing

    uniform dose per fraction (EUDf) and NTCP. The dose distribution including geometric uncertainties was determined from integration of the convolution of the static dose gradient with the PDF. Integration of the convolution of the static dose and derivative of the PDF can also be used to determine the dose including geometric uncertainties although this method was not investigated in detail. Local maximum dose gradient (LMDG) was determined via optimization of dose objective function by manually adjusting DVH control points or selecting beam numbers and directions during IMRT treatment planning. Minimum SD (SDmin) is used when geometric uncertainty is corrected with verification imaging. Maximum SD (SDmax) is used when the geometric uncertainty is known to be large and difficult to manage. SDmax was 4.38 mm in anterior-posterior (AP) direction, 2.70 mm in left-right (LR) direction and 4.35 mm in superior-inferior (SI) direction; SDmin was 1.1 mm in all three directions if less than 2 mm threshold was used for uncorrected fractions in every direction. EUDf is a useful QA parameter for interpreting the biological impact of geometric uncertainties on the static dose distribution. The EUD f has been used as the basis for the time-course NTCP evaluation in the thesis. Relative NTCP values are useful for comparative QA checking by normalizing known complications (e.g. reported in the RTOG studies) to specific DVH control points. For prostate cancer patients, rectal complications were evaluated from specific RTOG clinical trials and detailed evaluation of the treatment techniques (e.g. dose prescription, DVH, number of beams, bean angles). Treatment plans that did not meet DVH constraints represented additional complication risk. Geometric uncertainties improved or worsened rectal NTCP depending on individual internal organ motion within patient.

  4. Managing Uncertainty for an Integrated Fishery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MB Hasan

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates ways to deal with the uncertainties in fishing trawler scheduling and production planning in a quota-based integrated commercial fishery. A commercial fishery faces uncertainty mainly from variation in catch rate, which may be due to weather, and other environmental factors. The firm tries to manage this uncertainty through planning co-ordination of fishing trawler scheduling, catch quota, processing and labour allocation, and inventory control. Scheduling must necessarily be done over some finite planning horizon, and the trawler schedule itself introduces man-made variability, which in turn induces inventory in the processing plant. This induced inventory must be managed, complicated by the inability to plan easily beyond the current planning horizon. We develop a surprisingly simple innovation in inventory, which we have not seen in other papers on production management, which of requiring beginning inventory to equal ending inventory. This tool gives management a way to calculate a profit-maximizing safety stock that counter-acts the man-made variability due to the trawler scheduling. We found that the variability of catch rate had virtually no effects on the profitability with inventory. We report numerical results for several planning horizon models, based on data for a major New Zealand fishery.

  5. Uncertainty and power at low levels of incurred radiation dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, M; Jackson, D

    2005-01-01

    It is common practice when calculating dose to exposed populations to average the variables that go into the dose calculation (e.g. environmental concentrations, air kerma, consumption rates, occupancy rates). This approach is simple and can be useful where data are obtained over different periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly), where samples may be bulked for some analyses but not others and where gaps in the data are present. However, such an approach does not yield information on the degree of uncertainty around the average dose calculated. An alternative approach is to estimate the dose to each individual and to obtain an average from this data set, which can then also be used to derive a measure of uncertainty around the central dose estimate. In this study, we demonstrate the variability in dose estimates using a hypothetical data set and consider the implications for sample size to achieve fixed confidence or resolving power. We recommend calculating the dose to every individual sampled, in order both to obtain the average dose and to estimate its variability. We argue that it is best practice to obtain information as complete as possible from the available sample of individuals

  6. A review of occupational dose assessment uncertainties and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, R. W.

    2004-01-01

    The Radiological Protection Practitioner (RPP) will spend a considerable proportion of his time predicting or assessing retrospective radiation exposures to occupational personnel for different purposes. The assessments can be for a variety of purposes, such as to predict doses for occupational dose control, or project design purposes or to make retrospective estimates for the dose record, or account for dosemeters which have been lost or damaged. There are other less frequent occasions when dose assessment will be required such as to support legal cases and compensation claims and to provide the detailed dose information for epidemiological studies. It is important that the level of detail, justification and supporting evidence in the dose assessment is suitable for the requirements. So for instance, day to day operational dose assessments often rely mainly on the knowledge of the RPP in discussion with operators whilst at the other end of the spectrum a historical dose assessment for a legal case will require substantial research and supporting evidence for the estimate to withstand forensic challenge. The robustness of the assessment will depend on many factors including a knowledge of the work activities, the radiation dose uptake and field characteristics; all of which are affected by factors such as the time elapsed, the memory of operators and the dosemeters employed. This paper reviews the various options and uncertainties in dose assessments ranging from use of personal dosimetry results to the development of upper bound assessments. The level of assessment, the extent of research and the evidence adduced should then be appropriate to the end use of the estimate. (Author)

  7. Information-integration category learning and the human uncertainty response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Erick J; Boomer, Joseph; Smith, J David; Ashby, F Gregory

    2011-04-01

    The human response to uncertainty has been well studied in tasks requiring attention and declarative memory systems. However, uncertainty monitoring and control have not been studied in multi-dimensional, information-integration categorization tasks that rely on non-declarative procedural memory. Three experiments are described that investigated the human uncertainty response in such tasks. Experiment 1 showed that following standard categorization training, uncertainty responding was similar in information-integration tasks and rule-based tasks requiring declarative memory. In Experiment 2, however, uncertainty responding in untrained information-integration tasks impaired the ability of many participants to master those tasks. Finally, Experiment 3 showed that the deficit observed in Experiment 2 was not because of the uncertainty response option per se, but rather because the uncertainty response provided participants a mechanism via which to eliminate stimuli that were inconsistent with a simple declarative response strategy. These results are considered in the light of recent models of category learning and metacognition.

  8. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  9. Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

    2014-12-01

    Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  10. SU-G-BRB-14: Uncertainty of Radiochromic Film Based Relative Dose Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devic, S; Tomic, N; DeBlois, F; Seuntjens, J [McGill University, Montreal, QC (Canada); Lewis, D [RCF Consulting, LLC, Monroe, CT (United States); Aldelaijan, S [King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Center, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Due to inherently non-linear dose response, measurement of relative dose distribution with radiochromic film requires measurement of absolute dose using a calibration curve following previously established reference dosimetry protocol. On the other hand, a functional form that converts the inherently non-linear dose response curve of the radiochromic film dosimetry system into linear one has been proposed recently [Devic et al, Med. Phys. 39 4850–4857 (2012)]. However, there is a question what would be the uncertainty of such measured relative dose. Methods: If the relative dose distribution is determined going through the reference dosimetry system (conversion of the response by using calibration curve into absolute dose) the total uncertainty of such determined relative dose will be calculated by summing in quadrature total uncertainties of doses measured at a given and at the reference point. On the other hand, if the relative dose is determined using linearization method, the new response variable is calculated as ζ=a(netOD)n/ln(netOD). In this case, the total uncertainty in relative dose will be calculated by summing in quadrature uncertainties for a new response function (σζ) for a given and the reference point. Results: Except at very low doses, where the measurement uncertainty dominates, the total relative dose uncertainty is less than 1% for the linear response method as compared to almost 2% uncertainty level for the reference dosimetry method. The result is not surprising having in mind that the total uncertainty of the reference dose method is dominated by the fitting uncertainty, which is mitigated in the case of linearization method. Conclusion: Linearization of the radiochromic film dose response provides a convenient and a more precise method for relative dose measurements as it does not require reference dosimetry and creation of calibration curve. However, the linearity of the newly introduced function must be verified. Dave Lewis

  11. Determination of tolerance dose uncertainties and optimal design of dose response experiments with small animal numbers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karger, C.P.; Hartmann, G.H.

    2001-01-01

    Background: Dose response experiments aim to determine the complication probability as a function of dose. Adjusting the parameters of the frequently used dose response model P(D)=1/[1+(D 50 /D) k ] to the experimental data, 2 intuitive quantities are obtained: The tolerance dose D 50 and the slope parameter k. For mathematical reasons, however, standard statistic software uses a different set of parameters. Therefore, the resulting fit parameters of the statistic software as well as their standard errors have to be transformed to obtain D 50 and k as well as their standard errors. Material and Methods: The influence of the number of dose levels on the uncertainty of the fit parameters is studied by a simulation for a fixed number of animals. For experiments with small animal numbers, statistical artifacts may prevent the determination of the standard errors of the fit parameters. Consequences on the design of dose response experiments are investigated. Results: Explicit formulas are presented, which allow to calculate the parameters D 50 and k as well as their standard errors from the output of standard statistic software. The simulation shows, that the standard errors of the resulting parameters are independent of the number of dose levels, as long as the total number of animals involved in the experiment, remains constant. Conclusion: Statistical artifacts in experiments containing small animal numbers may be prevented by an adequate design of the experiment. For this, it is suggested to select a higher number of dose levels, rather than using a higher number of animals per dose level. (orig.) [de

  12. Effects of Positioning Uncertainty and Breathing on Dose Delivery and Radiation Pneumonitis Prediction in Breast Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mavroidis, Panayiotis; Axelsson, Sofie; Hyoedynmaa, Simo; Rajala, Juha; Pitkaenen, Maunu A.; Lind, Bengt K.; Brahme, Anders

    2002-01-01

    The quality of the radiation therapy delivered in the treatment of breast cancer is susceptible to setup errors and organ motion uncertainties. For 60 breast cancer patients (24 resected with negative node involvement, 13 resected with positive node involvement and 23 ablated) who were treated with three different irradiation techniques, these uncertainties are simulated. The delivered dose distributions in the lung were recalculated taking positioning uncertainty and breathing effects into account. In this way the real dose distributions delivered to the patients are more closely determined. The positioning uncertainties in the anteroposterior (AP) and the craniocaudal (CC) directions are approximated by Gaussian distributions based on the fact that setup errors are random. Breathing is assumed to have a linear behavior because of the chest wall movement during expiration and inspiration. The combined frequency distribution of the positioning and breathing distributions is obtained by convolution. By integrating the convolved distribution over a number of intervals, the positions and the weights of the fields that simulate the original 'effective fields' are calculated. Opposed tangential fields are simulated by a set of 5 pairs of fields in the AP direction and 3 such sets in the CC direction. Opposed AP + PA fields are simulated by a set of 3 pairs of fields in the AP direction and 3 such sets in the CC direction. Single frontal fields are simulated by a set of 5 fields. In radiotherapy for breast cancer, the lung is often partly within the irradiated volume even though it is a sensitive organ at risk. The influence of the deviation in the dose delivered by the original and the adjusted treatment plans on the clinical outcome is estimated by using the relative seriality model and the biologically effective uniform dose concept. Radiation pneumonitis is used as the clinical endpoint for lung complications. The adjusted treatment plans show larger lung

  13. Uncertainties in effective dose estimates of adult CT head scans: The effect of head size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: This study is an extension of a previous study where the uncertainties in effective dose estimates from adult CT head scans were calculated using four CT effective dose estimation methods, three of which were computer programs (CT-EXPO, CTDOSIMETRY, and IMPACTDOSE) and one that involved the dose length product (DLP). However, that study did not include the uncertainty contribution due to variations in head sizes. Methods: The uncertainties due to head size variations were estimated by first using the computer program data to calculate doses to small and large heads. These doses were then compared with doses calculated for the phantom heads used by the computer programs. An uncertainty was then assigned based on the difference between the small and large head doses and the doses of the phantom heads. Results: The uncertainties due to head size variations alone were found to be between 4% and 26% depending on the method used and the patient gender. When these uncertainties were included with the results of the previous study, the overall uncertainties in effective dose estimates (stated at the 95% confidence interval) were 20%-31% (CT-EXPO), 15%-30% (CTDOSIMETRY), 20%-36% (IMPACTDOSE), and 31%-40% (DLP). Conclusions: For the computer programs, the lower overall uncertainties were still achieved when measured values of CT dose index were used rather than tabulated values. For DLP dose estimates, head size variations made the largest (for males) and second largest (for females) contributions to effective dose uncertainty. An improvement in the uncertainty of the DLP method dose estimates will be achieved if head size variation can be taken into account.

  14. Uncertainties in effective dose estimates of adult CT head scans: The effect of head size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E. [Department of Medical Physics, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, South Australia 5000 (Australia) and School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia); Division of Medical Imaging, Women' s and Children' s Hospital, North Adelaide, South Australia 5006 (Australia) and School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia); School of Electrical and Information Engineering (Applied Physics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, South Australia 5095 (Australia)

    2009-09-15

    Purpose: This study is an extension of a previous study where the uncertainties in effective dose estimates from adult CT head scans were calculated using four CT effective dose estimation methods, three of which were computer programs (CT-EXPO, CTDOSIMETRY, and IMPACTDOSE) and one that involved the dose length product (DLP). However, that study did not include the uncertainty contribution due to variations in head sizes. Methods: The uncertainties due to head size variations were estimated by first using the computer program data to calculate doses to small and large heads. These doses were then compared with doses calculated for the phantom heads used by the computer programs. An uncertainty was then assigned based on the difference between the small and large head doses and the doses of the phantom heads. Results: The uncertainties due to head size variations alone were found to be between 4% and 26% depending on the method used and the patient gender. When these uncertainties were included with the results of the previous study, the overall uncertainties in effective dose estimates (stated at the 95% confidence interval) were 20%-31% (CT-EXPO), 15%-30% (CTDOSIMETRY), 20%-36% (IMPACTDOSE), and 31%-40% (DLP). Conclusions: For the computer programs, the lower overall uncertainties were still achieved when measured values of CT dose index were used rather than tabulated values. For DLP dose estimates, head size variations made the largest (for males) and second largest (for females) contributions to effective dose uncertainty. An improvement in the uncertainty of the DLP method dose estimates will be achieved if head size variation can be taken into account.

  15. The effects of radiotherapy treatment uncertainties on the delivered dose distribution and tumour control probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, J.T.; Zavgorodni, S.F.; Royal Adelaide Hospital, SA

    2001-01-01

    Uncertainty in the precise quantity of radiation dose delivered to tumours in external beam radiotherapy is present due to many factors, and can result in either spatially uniform (Gaussian) or spatially non-uniform dose errors. These dose errors are incorporated into the calculation of tumour control probability (TCP) and produce a distribution of possible TCP values over a population. We also study the effect of inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity on the population distribution of patient TCPs. This study aims to investigate the relative importance of these three uncertainties (spatially uniform dose uncertainty, spatially non-uniform dose uncertainty, and inter-patient cell sensitivity heterogeneity) on the delivered dose and TCP distribution following a typical course of fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The dose distributions used for patient treatments are modelled in one dimension. Geometric positioning uncertainties during and before treatment are considered as shifts of a pre-calculated dose distribution. Following the simulation of a population of patients, distributions of dose across the patient population are used to calculate mean treatment dose, standard deviation in mean treatment dose, mean TCP, standard deviation in TCP, and TCP mode. These parameters are calculated with each of the three uncertainties included separately. The calculations show that the dose errors in the tumour volume are dominated by the spatially uniform component of dose uncertainty. This could be related to machine specific parameters, such as linear accelerator calibration. TCP calculation is affected dramatically by inter-patient variation in the cell sensitivity and to a lesser extent by the spatially uniform dose errors. The positioning errors with the 1.5 cm margins used cause dose uncertainty outside the tumour volume and have a small effect on mean treatment dose (in the tumour volume) and tumour control. Copyright (2001) Australasian College of

  16. Addressing model uncertainty in dose-response: The case of chloroform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, J.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issues involved in addressing model uncertainty in the analysis of dose-response relationships. A method for addressing model uncertainty is described and applied to characterize the uncertainty in estimates of the carcinogenic potency of chloroform. The approach, which is rooted in Bayesian concepts of subjective probability, uses probability trees and formally-elicited expert judgments to address model uncertainty. It is argued that a similar approach could be used to improve the characterization of model uncertainty in the dose-response relationships for health effects from ionizing radiation

  17. Uncertainty of fast biological radiation dose assessment for emergency response scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Higueras, Manuel; Puig, Pedro; Einbeck, Jochen; Samaga, Daniel; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Barrios, Lleonard; Brzozowska, Beata; Fattibene, Paola; Gregoire, Eric; Jaworska, Alicja; Lloyd, David; Oestreicher, Ursula; Romm, Horst; Rothkamm, Kai; Roy, Laurence; Sommer, Sylwester; Terzoudi, Georgia; Thierens, Hubert; Trompier, Francois; Vral, Anne; Woda, Clemens

    2017-01-01

    Reliable dose estimation is an important factor in appropriate dosimetric triage categorization of exposed individuals to support radiation emergency response. Following work done under the EU FP7 MULTIBIODOSE and RENEB projects, formal methods for defining uncertainties on biological dose estimates are compared using simulated and real data from recent exercises. The results demonstrate that a Bayesian method of uncertainty assessment is the most appropriate, even in the absence of detailed prior information. The relative accuracy and relevance of techniques for calculating uncertainty and combining assay results to produce single dose and uncertainty estimates is further discussed. Finally, it is demonstrated that whatever uncertainty estimation method is employed, ignoring the uncertainty on fast dose assessments can have an important impact on rapid biodosimetric categorization.

  18. Dose mapping sensitivity to deformable registration uncertainties in fractionated radiotherapy – applied to prostate proton treatments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tilly, David; Tilly, Nina; Ahnesjö, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Calculation of accumulated dose in fractionated radiotherapy based on spatial mapping of the dose points generally requires deformable image registration (DIR). The accuracy of the accumulated dose thus depends heavily on the DIR quality. This motivates investigations of how the registration uncertainty influences dose planning objectives and treatment outcome predictions. A framework was developed where the dose mapping can be associated with a variable known uncertainty to simulate the DIR uncertainties in a clinical workflow. The framework enabled us to study the dependence of dose planning metrics, and the predicted treatment outcome, on the DIR uncertainty. The additional planning margin needed to compensate for the dose mapping uncertainties can also be determined. We applied the simulation framework to a hypofractionated proton treatment of the prostate using two different scanning beam spot sizes to also study the dose mapping sensitivity to penumbra widths. The planning parameter most sensitive to the DIR uncertainty was found to be the target D 95 . We found that the registration mean absolute error needs to be ≤0.20 cm to obtain an uncertainty better than 3% of the calculated D 95 for intermediate sized penumbras. Use of larger margins in constructing PTV from CTV relaxed the registration uncertainty requirements to the cost of increased dose burdens to the surrounding organs at risk. The DIR uncertainty requirements should be considered in an adaptive radiotherapy workflow since this uncertainty can have significant impact on the accumulated dose. The simulation framework enabled quantification of the accuracy requirement for DIR algorithms to provide satisfactory clinical accuracy in the accumulated dose

  19. Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Sluijs, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP (Numerical, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree), that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders. 3 tabs., 20 refs

  20. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROCESS INTEGRATION FOR THE BIOREFINERIES DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meilyn González Cortés

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents how the design approaches with high level of flexibility can reduce the additional costs of the strategies that apply overdesign factors to consider parameters with uncertainty that impact on the economic feasibility of a project. The elements with associate uncertainties and that are important in the configurations of the process integration under a biorefinery scheme are: raw material, raw material technologies of conversion, and variety of products that can be obtained. From the analysis it is obtained that in the raw materials and products with potentialities in a biorefinery scheme, there are external uncertainties such as availability, demands and prices in the market. Those external uncertainties can determine their impact on the biorefinery and also in the product prices we can find minimum and maximum limits that can be identified in intervals which should be considered for the project economic evaluation and the sensibility analysis due to varied conditions.

  1. On the uncertainties in effective dose estimates of adult CT head scans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Kent J.; Bibbo, Giovanni; Pattison, John E.

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of the effective dose to adult patients from computed tomography (CT) head scanning can be calculated using a number of different methods. These estimates can be used for a variety of purposes, such as improving scanning protocols, comparing different CT imaging centers, and weighing the benefits of the scan against the risk of radiation-induced cancer. The question arises: What is the uncertainty in these effective dose estimates? This study calculates the uncertainty of effective dose estimates produced by three computer programs (CT-EXPO, CTDosimetry, and ImpactDose) and one method that makes use of dose-length product (DLP) values. Uncertainties were calculated in accordance with an internationally recognized uncertainty analysis guide. For each of the four methods, the smallest and largest overall uncertainties (stated at the 95% confidence interval) were: 20%-31% (CT-EXPO), 15%-28% (CTDosimetry), 20%-36% (ImpactDose), and 22%-32% (DLP), respectively. The overall uncertainties for each method vary due to differences in the uncertainties of factors used in each method. The smallest uncertainties apply when the CT dose index for the scanner has been measured using a calibrated pencil ionization chamber

  2. Dynamic interactions between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose prediction under uncertainty and temporal variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Vikas, E-mail: vikas.kumar@urv.cat [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Barros, Felipe P.J. de [Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089, CA (United States); Schuhmacher, Marta [Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007 (Spain); Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier [Hydrogeology Group, Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Geosciences, University Politècnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTech, Barcelona 08034 (Spain)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Dynamic parametric interaction in daily dose prediction under uncertainty. • Importance of temporal dynamics associated with the dose. • Different dose experienced by different population cohorts as a function of time. • Relevance of uncertainty reduction in the input parameters shows temporal dynamism. -- Abstract: We study the time dependent interaction between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose predictions due to exposure of humans to groundwater contamination. Dose predictions are treated stochastically to account for an incomplete hydrogeological and geochemical field characterization, and an incomplete knowledge of the physiological response. We used a nested Monte Carlo framework to account for uncertainty and variability arising from both hydrogeological and exposure variables. Our interest is in the temporal dynamics of the total dose and their effects on parametric uncertainty reduction. We illustrate the approach to a HCH (lindane) pollution problem at the Ebro River, Spain. The temporal distribution of lindane in the river water can have a strong impact in the evaluation of risk. The total dose displays a non-linear effect on different population cohorts, indicating the need to account for population variability. We then expand the concept of Comparative Information Yield Curves developed earlier (see de Barros et al. [29]) to evaluate parametric uncertainty reduction under temporally variable exposure dose. Results show that the importance of parametric uncertainty reduction varies according to the temporal dynamics of the lindane plume. The approach could be used for any chemical to aid decision makers to better allocate resources towards reducing uncertainty.

  3. Integration of inaccurate data into model building and uncertainty assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleou, Thierry

    1998-12-31

    Model building can be seen as integrating numerous measurements and mapping through data points considered as exact. As the exact data set is usually sparse, using additional non-exact data improves the modelling and reduces the uncertainties. Several examples of non-exact data are discussed and a methodology to honor them in a single pass, along with the exact data is presented. This automatic procedure is valid for both ``base case`` model building and stochastic simulations for uncertainty analysis. 5 refs., 3 figs.

  4. Analysis of uncertainties in the IAEA/WHO TLD postal dose audit system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izewska, J. [Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, International Atomic Energy Agency, Wagramer Strasse 5, Vienna (Austria)], E-mail: j.izewska@iaea.org; Hultqvist, M. [Department of Medical Radiation Physics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Bera, P. [Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, International Atomic Energy Agency, Wagramer Strasse 5, Vienna (Austria)

    2008-02-15

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organisation (WHO) operate the IAEA/WHO TLD postal dose audit programme. Thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLDs) are used as transfer devices in this programme. In the present work the uncertainties in the dose determination from TLD measurements have been evaluated. The analysis of uncertainties comprises uncertainties in the calibration coefficient of the TLD system and uncertainties in factors correcting for dose response non-linearity, fading of TL signal, energy response and influence of TLD holder. The individual uncertainties have been combined to estimate the total uncertainty in the dose evaluated from TLD measurements. The combined relative standard uncertainty in the dose determined from TLD measurements has been estimated to be 1.2% for irradiations with Co-60 {gamma}-rays and 1.6% for irradiations with high-energy X-rays. Results from irradiations by the Bureau international des poids et mesures (BIPM), Primary Standard Dosimetry Laboratories (PSDLs) and Secondary Standards Dosimetry Laboratories (SSDLs) compare favourably with the estimated uncertainties, whereas TLD results of radiotherapy centres show higher standard deviations than those derived theoretically.

  5. Uncertainty of the thyroid dose conversion factor for inhalation intakes of 131I and its parametric uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, R. P.; Hamby, D. M.; Palmer, T. S.

    2006-01-01

    Inhalation exposures of 131 I may occur in the physical form of a gas as well as a particulate. The physical characteristics pertaining to these different types of releases influence the intake and subsequent dose to an exposed individual. The thyroid dose received is influenced by the route through which 131 I enters the body and its subsequent clearance, absorption and movement throughout the body. The radioactive iodine taken up in the gas-exchange tissues is cleared to other tissues or absorbed into the bloodstream of the individual and transferred to other organs. Iodine in the circulatory system is then taken up by the thyroid gland with resulting dose to that tissue. The magnitude of and uncertainty in the thyroid dose is important to the assessment of individuals exposed to airborne releases of radioiodine. Age- and gender-specific modelling parameters have resulted in significant differences between gas uptake, particulate deposition and inhalation dose conversion factors for each age and gender group. Inhalation dose conversion factors and their inherent uncertainty are markedly affected by the type of iodine intake. These differences are expected due to the modelling of particulate deposition versus uptake of gas in the respiratory tract. Inhalation dose estimates via iodine gases are very similar and separate classifications may not be necessarily based on this assessment. (authors)

  6. A novel method for the evaluation of uncertainty in dose-volume histogram computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henríquez, Francisco Cutanda; Castrillón, Silvia Vargas

    2008-03-15

    Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) are a useful tool in state-of-the-art radiotherapy treatment planning, and it is essential to recognize their limitations. Even after a specific dose-calculation model is optimized, dose distributions computed by using treatment-planning systems are affected by several sources of uncertainty, such as algorithm limitations, measurement uncertainty in the data used to model the beam, and residual differences between measured and computed dose. This report presents a novel method to take them into account. To take into account the effect of associated uncertainties, a probabilistic approach using a new kind of histogram, a dose-expected volume histogram, is introduced. The expected value of the volume in the region of interest receiving an absorbed dose equal to or greater than a certain value is found by using the probability distribution of the dose at each point. A rectangular probability distribution is assumed for this point dose, and a formulation that accounts for uncertainties associated with point dose is presented for practical computations. This method is applied to a set of DVHs for different regions of interest, including 6 brain patients, 8 lung patients, 8 pelvis patients, and 6 prostate patients planned for intensity-modulated radiation therapy. Results show a greater effect on planning target volume coverage than in organs at risk. In cases of steep DVH gradients, such as planning target volumes, this new method shows the largest differences with the corresponding DVH; thus, the effect of the uncertainty is larger.

  7. Comparison of the uncertainties of several European low-dose calibration facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dombrowski, H.; Cornejo Díaz, N. A.; Toni, M. P.; Mihelic, M.; Röttger, A.

    2018-04-01

    The typical uncertainty of a low-dose rate calibration of a detector, which is calibrated in a dedicated secondary national calibration laboratory, is investigated, including measurements in the photon field of metrology institutes. Calibrations at low ambient dose equivalent rates (at the level of the natural ambient radiation) are needed when environmental radiation monitors are to be characterised. The uncertainties of calibration measurements in conventional irradiation facilities above ground are compared with those obtained in a low-dose rate irradiation facility located deep underground. Four laboratories quantitatively evaluated the uncertainties of their calibration facilities, in particular for calibrations at low dose rates (250 nSv/h and 1 μSv/h). For the first time, typical uncertainties of European calibration facilities are documented in a comparison and the main sources of uncertainty are revealed. All sources of uncertainties are analysed, including the irradiation geometry, scattering, deviations of real spectra from standardised spectra, etc. As a fundamental metrological consequence, no instrument calibrated in such a facility can have a lower total uncertainty in subsequent measurements. For the first time, the need to perform calibrations at very low dose rates (< 100 nSv/h) deep underground is underpinned on the basis of quantitative data.

  8. The role of uncertainty analysis in dose reconstruction and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Simon, S.L.; Thiessen. K.M.

    1996-01-01

    Dose reconstruction and risk assessment rely heavily on the use of mathematical models to extrapolate information beyond the realm of direct observation. Because models are merely approximations of real systems, their predictions are inherently uncertain. As a result, full disclosure of uncertainty in dose and risk estimates is essential to achieve scientific credibility and to build public trust. The need for formal analysis of uncertainty in model predictions was presented during the nineteenth annual meeting of the NCRP. At that time, quantitative uncertainty analysis was considered a relatively new and difficult subject practiced by only a few investigators. Today, uncertainty analysis has become synonymous with the assessment process itself. When an uncertainty analysis is used iteratively within the assessment process, it can guide experimental research to refine dose and risk estimates, deferring potentially high cost or high consequence decisions until uncertainty is either acceptable or irreducible. Uncertainty analysis is now mandated for all ongoing dose reconstruction projects within the United States, a fact that distinguishes dose reconstruction from other types of exposure and risk assessments. 64 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  9. Quantifying remarks to the question of uncertainties of the 'general dose assessment fundamentals'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenk, H.D.; Vogt, K.J.

    1982-12-01

    Dose prediction models are always subject to uncertainties due to a number of factors including deficiencies in the model structure and uncertainties of the model input parameter values. In lieu of validation experiments the evaluation of these uncertainties is restricted to scientific judgement. Several attempts have been made in the literature to evaluate the uncertainties of the current dose assessment models resulting from uncertainties of the model input parameter values using stochastic approaches. Less attention, however, has been paid to potential sources of systematic over- and underestimations of the predicted doses due to deficiencies in the model structure. The present study addresses this aspect with regard to dose assessment models currently used for regulatory purposes. The influence of a number of basic simplifications and conservative assumptions has been investigated. Our systematic approach is exemplified by a comparison of doses evaluated on the basis of the regulatory guide model and a more realistic model respectively. This is done for 3 critical exposure pathways. As a result of this comparison it can be concluded that the currently used regularoty-type models include significant safety factors resulting in a systematic overprediction of dose to man up to two orders of magnitude. For this reason there are some indications that these models usually more than compensate the bulk of the stochastic uncertainties caused by the variability of the input parameter values. (orig.) [de

  10. Uncertainty analysis in the determination of absorbed dose in water by Fricke chemical dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Fabia; Aguirre, Eder Aguirre

    2016-01-01

    This work studies the calculations of uncertainties and the level of confidence that involves the process for obtaining the dose absorbed in water using the method of Fricke dosimetry, developed at Laboratorio de Ciencias Radiologicas (LCR). Measurements of absorbance of samples Fricke, irradiated and non-irradiated is going to use in order to calculate the respective sensitivity coefficients, along with the expressions of the calculation of Fricke dose and the absorbed dose in water. Those expressions are used for calculating the others sensitivity coefficients from the input variable. It is going to use the combined uncertainty and the expanded uncertainty, with a level of confidence of 95.45%, in order to report the uncertainties of the measurement. (author)

  11. Optimisation of internal contamination monitoring programme by integration of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davesne, E.; Casanova, P.; Chojnacki, E.; Paquet, F.; Blanchardon, E.

    2011-01-01

    Potential internal contamination of workers is monitored by periodic bioassay measurements interpreted in terms of intake and committed effective dose by the use of biokinetic and dosimetric models. After a prospective evaluation of exposure at a workplace, a suitable monitoring programme can be defined by choosing adequate measurement techniques and frequency. In this study, the sensitivity of a programme is evaluated by the minimum intake and dose, which may be detected with a given level of confidence by taking into account uncertainties on exposure conditions and measurements. This is made for programme optimisation, which is performed by comparing the sensitivities of different alternative programmes. These methods were applied at the AREVA NC reprocessing plant and support the current monitoring programme as the best compromise between the cost of the measurements and the sensitivity of the programme. (authors)

  12. Integrating uncertainty into public energy research and development decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anadón, Laura Díaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina

    2017-05-01

    Public energy research and development (R&D) is recognized as a key policy tool for transforming the world's energy system in a cost-effective way. However, managing the uncertainty surrounding technological change is a critical challenge for designing robust and cost-effective energy policies. The design of such policies is particularly important if countries are going to both meet the ambitious greenhouse-gas emissions reductions goals set by the Paris Agreement and achieve the required harmonization with the broader set of objectives dictated by the Sustainable Development Goals. The complexity of informing energy technology policy requires, and is producing, a growing collaboration between different academic disciplines and practitioners. Three analytical components have emerged to support the integration of technological uncertainty into energy policy: expert elicitations, integrated assessment models, and decision frameworks. Here we review efforts to incorporate all three approaches to facilitate public energy R&D decision-making under uncertainty. We highlight emerging insights that are robust across elicitations, models, and frameworks, relating to the allocation of public R&D investments, and identify gaps and challenges that remain.

  13. Optimizing integrated airport surface and terminal airspace operations under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosson, Christabelle S.

    In airports and surrounding terminal airspaces, the integration of surface, arrival and departure scheduling and routing have the potential to improve the operations efficiency. Moreover, because both the airport surface and the terminal airspace are often altered by random perturbations, the consideration of uncertainty in flight schedules is crucial to improve the design of robust flight schedules. Previous research mainly focused on independently solving arrival scheduling problems, departure scheduling problems and surface management scheduling problems and most of the developed models are deterministic. This dissertation presents an alternate method to model the integrated operations by using a machine job-shop scheduling formulation. A multistage stochastic programming approach is chosen to formulate the problem in the presence of uncertainty and candidate solutions are obtained by solving sample average approximation problems with finite sample size. The developed mixed-integer-linear-programming algorithm-based scheduler is capable of computing optimal aircraft schedules and routings that reflect the integration of air and ground operations. The assembled methodology is applied to a Los Angeles case study. To show the benefits of integrated operations over First-Come-First-Served, a preliminary proof-of-concept is conducted for a set of fourteen aircraft evolving under deterministic conditions in a model of the Los Angeles International Airport surface and surrounding terminal areas. Using historical data, a representative 30-minute traffic schedule and aircraft mix scenario is constructed. The results of the Los Angeles application show that the integration of air and ground operations and the use of a time-based separation strategy enable both significant surface and air time savings. The solution computed by the optimization provides a more efficient routing and scheduling than the First-Come-First-Served solution. Additionally, a data driven analysis is

  14. Risk at Low Doses: Scientific knowledge, uncertainties and management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giusssani, A.; Ballarini, F.; Ottolenghi, A.

    2002-01-01

    Most of the applications of ionizing radiation in the medical field, for the exposed workers as well as the majority of patients undergoing diagnostic examinations, can be seen as low situations. Epidemiological information is however available for dose and dose rates higher than the values typical of most medical situation. Main source of information is the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese. A-bomb survivors, supplemented by studies of selected groups of exposed workers (uranium miners, radium painters) or radiotherapy patients with a detailed follow-up history. All of these group studies, however, suffer from one or more of the following limitations: - lack of adequate dosimetry - lack of a reliable control group for the necessary comparison - influence of concomitant factors (not always easy to find out) - influence of social conditions. In addition exposed study populations are different than the population of patients for which the risk estimates are needed in the medical situation. Recent studies aimed to evaluate the available data on the cohorts of the inhabitants of the Techa river settlements as well as of the workers of the Mayak nuclear facilities may provide in the future useful information on large populations chronically exposed to relatively low doses. (Author)

  15. ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE RADIATION DOSES FOR THE TECHA RIVER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Shagina, N. B.

    2009-10-23

    In order to provide more accurate and precise estimates of individual dose (and thus more precise estimates of radiation risk) for the members of the ETRC, a new dosimetric calculation system, the Techa River Dosimetry System-2009 (TRDS-2009) has been prepared. The deterministic version of the improved dosimetry system TRDS-2009D was basically completed in April 2009. Recent developments in evaluation of dose-response models in light of uncertain dose have highlighted the importance of different types of uncertainties in the development of individual dose estimates. These include uncertain parameters that may be either shared or unshared within the dosimetric cohort, and also the nature of the type of uncertainty as aleatory or epistemic and either classical or Berkson. This report identifies the nature of the various input parameters and calculational methods incorporated in the Techa River Dosimetry System (based on the TRDS-2009D implementation), with the intention of preparing a stochastic version to estimate the uncertainties in the dose estimates. This report reviews the equations, databases, and input parameters, and then identifies the author’s interpretations of their general nature. It presents the approach selected so that the stochastic, Monte-Carlo, implementation of the dosimetry System - TRDS-2009MC - will provide useful information regarding the uncertainties of the doses.

  16. Dose uncertainties associated with a set density override of unknown hip prosthetic composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijken, James D; Colyer, Christopher J

    2017-09-01

    The dosimetric uncertainties associated with radiotherapy through hip prostheses while overriding the implant to a set density within the TPS has not yet been reported. In this study, the uncertainty in dose within a PTV resulting from this planning choice was investigated. A set of metallic hip prosthetics (stainless steel, titanium, and two different Co-Cr-Mo alloys) were CT scanned in a water bath. Within the TPS, the prosthetic pieces were overridden to densities between 3 and 10 g/cm 3 and irradiated on a linear accelerator. Measured dose maps were compared to the TPS to determine which density was most appropriate to override each metal. This was shown to be in disagreement with the reported literature values of density which was attributed to the TPS dose calculation algorithm and total mass attenuation coefficient differences in water and metal. The dose difference was then calculated for a set density override of 6 g/cm 3 in the TPS and used to estimate the dose uncertainty beyond the prosthesis. For beams passing through an implant, the dosimetric uncertainty in regions of the PTV may be as high as 10% if the implant composition remains unknown and a set density override is used. These results highlight limitations of such assumptions and the need for careful consideration by radiation oncologist, therapist, and physics staff. © 2017 Adelaide Radiotherapy Centre. Journal of Applied Clinical Medical Physics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  17. Validation and uncertainty analysis of a pre-treatment 2D dose prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Jose A.; Wolfs, Cecile J. A.; Nijsten, Sebastiaan M. J. J. G.; Verhaegen, Frank

    2018-02-01

    Independent verification of complex treatment delivery with megavolt photon beam radiotherapy (RT) has been effectively used to detect and prevent errors. This work presents the validation and uncertainty analysis of a model that predicts 2D portal dose images (PDIs) without a patient or phantom in the beam. The prediction model is based on an exponential point dose model with separable primary and secondary photon fluence components. The model includes a scatter kernel, off-axis ratio map, transmission values and penumbra kernels for beam-delimiting components. These parameters were derived through a model fitting procedure supplied with point dose and dose profile measurements of radiation fields. The model was validated against a treatment planning system (TPS; Eclipse) and radiochromic film measurements for complex clinical scenarios, including volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Confidence limits on fitted model parameters were calculated based on simulated measurements. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of the parameter uncertainties on the model output. For the maximum uncertainty, the maximum deviating measurement sets were propagated through the fitting procedure and the model. The overall uncertainty was assessed using all simulated measurements. The validation of the prediction model against the TPS and the film showed a good agreement, with on average 90.8% and 90.5% of pixels passing a (2%,2 mm) global gamma analysis respectively, with a low dose threshold of 10%. The maximum and overall uncertainty of the model is dependent on the type of clinical plan used as input. The results can be used to study the robustness of the model. A model for predicting accurate 2D pre-treatment PDIs in complex RT scenarios can be used clinically and its uncertainties can be taken into account.

  18. Uncertainty analysis for an updated dose assessment for a US nuclear test site: Bikini Atoll

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.; Robison, W.L.

    1995-11-01

    A detailed analysis of uncertainty and interindividual variability in estimated doses was conducted for a rehabilitation scenario for Bikini Island at Bikini Atoll, in which the top 40 cm of soil would be removed in the housing and village area, and the rest of the island is treated with potassium fertilizer, prior to an assumed resettlement date of 1999. Predicted doses were considered for the following fallout-related exposure pathways: ingested Cesium-137 and Strontium-90, external gamma exposure, and inhalation and ingestion of Americium-241 + Plutonium-239+240. Two dietary scenarios were considered: (1) imported foods are available (IA), and (2) imported foods are unavailable (only local foods are consumed) (IUA). Corresponding calculations of uncertainty in estimated population-average dose showed that after ∼5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to uncertainty in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its population-average value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). Corresponding calculations of interindividual variability in the expected value of dose with respect to uncertainty showed that after ∼5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to interindividual variability in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its expected value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). For reference, the expected values of population-average dose at age 70 were estimated to be 1.6 and 5.2 cSv under the IA and IUA dietary assumptions, respectively. Assuming that 200 Bikini resettlers would be exposed to local foods (under both IA and IUA assumptions), the maximum 1-y dose received by any Bikini resident is most likely to be approximately 2 and 8 mSv under the IA and IUA assumptions, respectively

  19. An approach to routine individual internal dose monitoring at the object 'Shelter' personnel considering uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mel'nichuk, D.V.; Bondarenko, O.O.; Medvedjev, S.Yu.

    2002-01-01

    An approach to organisation of routine individual internal dose monitoring of the personnel of the Object 'Shelter' is presented in the work, that considers individualised uncertainties. In this aspect two methods of effective dose assessment based on bioassay are considered in the work: (1) traditional indirect method at which application results of workplace monitoring are not taken into account, and (2) a combined method in which both results of bioassay measurements and workplace monitoring are considered

  20. The influence of patient positioning uncertainties in proton radiotherapy on proton range and dose distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liebl, Jakob, E-mail: jakob.liebl@medaustron.at [EBG MedAustron GmbH, 2700 Wiener Neustadt (Austria); Francis H. Burr Proton Therapy Center, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02114 (United States); Department of Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology, Medical University of Graz, 8036 Graz (Austria); Paganetti, Harald; Zhu, Mingyao; Winey, Brian A. [Francis H. Burr Proton Therapy Center, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02114 (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Purpose: Proton radiotherapy allows radiation treatment delivery with high dose gradients. The nature of such dose distributions increases the influence of patient positioning uncertainties on their fidelity when compared to photon radiotherapy. The present work quantitatively analyzes the influence of setup uncertainties on proton range and dose distributions. Methods: Thirty-eight clinical passive scattering treatment fields for small lesions in the head were studied. Dose distributions for shifted and rotated patient positions were Monte Carlo-simulated. Proton range uncertainties at the 50%- and 90%-dose falloff position were calculated considering 18 arbitrary combinations of maximal patient position shifts and rotations for two patient positioning methods. Normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs), equivalent uniform doses (EUDs), and tumor control probabilities (TCPs) were studied for organs at risk (OARs) and target volumes of eight patients. Results: The authors identified a median 1σ proton range uncertainty at the 50%-dose falloff of 2.8 mm for anatomy-based patient positioning and 1.6 mm for fiducial-based patient positioning as well as 7.2 and 5.8 mm for the 90%-dose falloff position, respectively. These range uncertainties were correlated to heterogeneity indices (HIs) calculated for each treatment field (38% < R{sup 2} < 50%). A NTCP increase of more than 10% (absolute) was observed for less than 2.9% (anatomy-based positioning) and 1.2% (fiducial-based positioning) of the studied OARs and patient shifts. For target volumes TCP decreases by more than 10% (absolute) occurred in less than 2.2% of the considered treatment scenarios for anatomy-based patient positioning and were nonexistent for fiducial-based patient positioning. EUD changes for target volumes were up to 35% (anatomy-based positioning) and 16% (fiducial-based positioning). Conclusions: The influence of patient positioning uncertainties on proton range in therapy of small lesions

  1. A model for optimization of process integration investments under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Elin; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The long-term economic outcome of energy-related industrial investment projects is difficult to evaluate because of uncertain energy market conditions. In this article, a general, multistage, stochastic programming model for the optimization of investments in process integration and industrial energy technologies is proposed. The problem is formulated as a mixed-binary linear programming model where uncertainties are modelled using a scenario-based approach. The objective is to maximize the expected net present value of the investments which enables heat savings and decreased energy imports or increased energy exports at an industrial plant. The proposed modelling approach enables a long-term planning of industrial, energy-related investments through the simultaneous optimization of immediate and later decisions. The stochastic programming approach is also suitable for modelling what is possibly complex process integration constraints. The general model formulation presented here is a suitable basis for more specialized case studies dealing with optimization of investments in energy efficiency. -- Highlights: → Stochastic programming approach to long-term planning of process integration investments. → Extensive mathematical model formulation. → Multi-stage investment decisions and scenario-based modelling of uncertain energy prices. → Results illustrate how investments made now affect later investment and operation opportunities. → Approach for evaluation of robustness with respect to variations in probability distribution.

  2. 42 CFR 82.19 - How will NIOSH address uncertainty about dose levels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... characterized with a probability distribution that accounts for the uncertainty of the estimate. This information will be used by DOL in the calculation of probability of causation, under HHS guidelines for... THE ENERGY EMPLOYEES OCCUPATIONAL ILLNESS COMPENSATION PROGRAM ACT OF 2000 Dose Reconstruction Process...

  3. Uncertainty of inhalation dose coefficients for representative physical and chemical forms of iodine-131

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Richard Paul, III

    Releases of radioactive material have occurred at various Department of Energy (DOE) weapons facilities and facilities associated with the nuclear fuel cycle in the generation of electricity. Many different radionuclides have been released to the environment with resulting exposure of the population to these various sources of radioactivity. Radioiodine has been released from a number of these facilities and is a potential public health concern due to its physical and biological characteristics. Iodine exists as various isotopes, but our focus is on 131I due to its relatively long half-life, its prevalence in atmospheric releases and its contribution to offsite dose. The assumption of physical and chemical form is speculated to have a profound impact on the deposition of radioactive material within the respiratory tract. In the case of iodine, it has been shown that more than one type of physical and chemical form may be released to, or exist in, the environment; iodine can exist as a particle or as a gas. The gaseous species can be further segregated based on chemical form: elemental, inorganic, and organic iodides. Chemical compounds in each class are assumed to behave similarly with respect to biochemistry. Studies at Oak Ridge National Laboratories have demonstrated that 131I is released as a particulate, as well as in elemental, inorganic and organic chemical form. The internal dose estimate from 131I may be very different depending on the effect that chemical form has on fractional deposition, gas uptake, and clearance in the respiratory tract. There are many sources of uncertainty in the estimation of environmental dose including source term, airborne transport of radionuclides, and internal dosimetry. Knowledge of uncertainty in internal dosimetry is essential for estimating dose to members of the public and for determining total uncertainty in dose estimation. Important calculational steps in any lung model is regional estimation of deposition fractions

  4. Assessment of uncertainties of external dose estimation after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruk, Julianna

    2008-01-01

    Full text: In the remote period of time after the Chernobyl accident the estimation of an external exposure with using of direct dose rate measurements or individual monitoring of inhabitants is rationally only for settlements where the preliminary estimation makes the range equal or greater 1.0 mSv per year. For inhabitancies of settlements where the preliminary estimation makes the range less 1.0 mSv per year the external dose is correctly to estimate by calculation. For the last cases the uncertainty should be assessed. The most accessible initial parameter for calculation of a dose of an external exposure is the average ground deposition of Cs-137 for the settlements. The character of density distribution of Cs-137 deposition in an area of one settlement is well enough studied. The best agreement of distribution of this parameter is reached with log-normal distribution practically for all settlements of the investigated territories with factor of a variation 0.3-0.6 and the standard geometrical deviation lying within the limits of 1.4-1.7. The dose factors which correspond to the structure of an available housing of settlement (type of apartment houses: wooden, stone, multi-storey) and age structure of the population are bring the main contribution into uncertainty of the external dose estimation. The situations with a different level of known information have been considered for the estimation of influence of those parameters on the general uncertainty. Thus the estimation of the uncertainty of the external dose was done for two variant: optimistic and pessimistic. In the optimistic case the estimation of external doses will be spent for specific settlement with known structure of housing and according to a known share of the living population in houses of the certain type. In that case, variability value dose factor will be limited to the chosen type of a residential building (for example - the one-storied wooden house), and a share of the living population

  5. Dose uncertainties for large solar particle events: Input spectra variability and human geometry approximations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townsend, Lawrence W.; Zapp, E. Neal

    1999-01-01

    The true uncertainties in estimates of body organ absorbed dose and dose equivalent, from exposures of interplanetary astronauts to large solar particle events (SPEs), are essentially unknown. Variations in models used to parameterize SPE proton spectra for input into space radiation transport and shielding computer codes can result in uncertainty about the reliability of dose predictions for these events. Also, different radiation transport codes and their input databases can yield significant differences in dose predictions, even for the same input spectra. Different results may also be obtained for the same input spectra and transport codes if different spacecraft and body self-shielding distributions are assumed. Heretofore there have been no systematic investigations of the variations in dose and dose equivalent resulting from these assumptions and models. In this work we present a study of the variability in predictions of organ dose and dose equivalent arising from the use of different parameters to represent the same incident SPE proton data and from the use of equivalent sphere approximations to represent human body geometry. The study uses the BRYNTRN space radiation transport code to calculate dose and dose equivalent for the skin, ocular lens and bone marrow using the October 1989 SPE as a model event. Comparisons of organ dose and dose equivalent, obtained with a realistic human geometry model and with the oft-used equivalent sphere approximation, are also made. It is demonstrated that variations of 30-40% in organ dose and dose equivalent are obtained for slight variations in spectral fitting parameters obtained when various data points are included or excluded from the fitting procedure. It is further demonstrated that extrapolating spectra from low energy (≤30 MeV) proton fluence measurements, rather than using fluence data extending out to 100 MeV results in dose and dose equivalent predictions that are underestimated by factors as large as 2

  6. Uncertainties in estimating heart doses from 2D-tangential breast cancer radiotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laugaard Lorenzen, Ebbe; Brink, Carsten; Taylor, Carolyn W.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We evaluated the accuracy of three methods of estimating radiation dose to the heart from two-dimensional tangential radiotherapy for breast cancer, as used in Denmark during 1982-2002. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Three tangential radiotherapy regimens were reconstructed using CT......-based planning scans for 40 patients with left-sided and 10 with right-sided breast cancer. Setup errors and organ motion were simulated using estimated uncertainties. For left-sided patients, mean heart dose was related to maximum heart distance in the medial field. RESULTS: For left-sided breast cancer, mean...... to the uncertainty of estimates based on individual CT-scans. For right-sided breast cancer patients, mean heart dose based on individual CT-scans was always

  7. Analysis of coupled model uncertainties in source-to-dose modeling of human exposures to ambient air pollution: A PM 2.5 case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özkaynak, Halûk; Frey, H. Christopher; Burke, Janet; Pinder, Robert W.

    Quantitative assessment of human exposures and health effects due to air pollution involve detailed characterization of impacts of air quality on exposure and dose. A key challenge is to integrate these three components on a consistent spatial and temporal basis taking into account linkages and feedbacks. The current state-of-practice for such assessments is to exercise emission, meteorology, air quality, exposure, and dose models separately, and to link them together by using the output of one model as input to the subsequent downstream model. Quantification of variability and uncertainty has been an important topic in the exposure assessment community for a number of years. Variability refers to differences in the value of a quantity (e.g., exposure) over time, space, or among individuals. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity. An emerging challenge is how to quantify variability and uncertainty in integrated assessments over the source-to-dose continuum by considering contributions from individual as well as linked components. For a case study of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) in North Carolina during July 2002, we characterize variability and uncertainty associated with each of the individual concentration, exposure and dose models that are linked, and use a conceptual framework to quantify and evaluate the implications of coupled model uncertainties. We find that the resulting overall uncertainties due to combined effects of both variability and uncertainty are smaller (usually by a factor of 3-4) than the crudely multiplied model-specific overall uncertainty ratios. Future research will need to examine the impact of potential dependencies among the model components by conducting a truly coupled modeling analysis.

  8. A Bayesian Framework of Uncertainties Integration in 3D Geological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, D.; Liu, X.

    2017-12-01

    3D geological model can describe complicated geological phenomena in an intuitive way while its application may be limited by uncertain factors. Great progress has been made over the years, lots of studies decompose the uncertainties of geological model to analyze separately, while ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties. Great progress has been made over the years, while lots of studies ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties when analyzed them item by item from each source. To evaluate the synthetical uncertainty, we choose probability distribution to quantify uncertainty, and propose a bayesian framework of uncertainties integration. With this framework, we integrated data errors, spatial randomness, and cognitive information into posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. Uncertainties propagate and cumulate in modeling process, the gradual integration of multi-source uncertainty is a kind of simulation of the uncertainty propagation. Bayesian inference accomplishes uncertainty updating in modeling process. Maximum entropy principle makes a good effect on estimating prior probability distribution, which ensures the prior probability distribution subjecting to constraints supplied by the given information with minimum prejudice. In the end, we obtained a posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. This posterior distribution represents the synthetical impact of all the uncertain factors on the spatial structure of geological model. The framework provides a solution to evaluate synthetical impact on geological model of multi-source uncertainties and a thought to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in geological modeling.

  9. Preliminary uncertainty analysis for the doses estimated using the Techa River dosimetry system - 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Shagina, N B.; Degteva, M O.; Tolstykh, E I.; Vorobiova, M I.; Anspaugh, L R.

    2000-01-01

    The Mayak Production Association (MPA) was the first facility in the former Soviet Union for the production of plutonium. As a result of failures in the technological processes in the late 1940's and early 1950's, members of the public were exposed via discharge of about 1017 Bq of liquid wastes into the Techa River (1949-1956). Residents of many villages downstream on the Techa River were exposed via a variety of pathways; the more significant included drinking of water from the river and external gamma exposure due to proximity to sediments and shoreline. The specific aim of this project is to enhance the reconstruction of external and internal radiation doses for individuals in the Extended Techa River Cohort. The purpose of this paper is to present the approaches being used to evaluate the uncertainty in the calculated individual doses and to provide example and representative results of the uncertainty analyses. The magnitude of the uncertainties varies depending on location and time of individual exposure, but the results from reference-individual calculations indicate that for external doses, the range of uncertainty is about factors of four to five. For internal doses, the range of uncertainty depends on village of residence, which is actually a surrogate for source of drinking water. For villages with single sources of drinking water (river or well), the ratio of the 97.5th percentile-to 2.5th percentile estimates can be a factor of 20 to 30. For villages with mixed sources of drinking water (river and well), the ratio of the range can be over two orders of magnitude

  10. Estimated of associated uncertainties of the linearity test of dose calibrators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sousa, Carlos H.S.; Peixoto, Jose G.P.

    2013-01-01

    Activimeters determine the activity of radioactive samples and them are validated by performance tests. This research determined the expanded uncertainties associated to the linearity test. Were used three dose calibrators and three sources of 99 Tc m for testing using recommended protocol by the IAEA, which considered the decay of radioactive samples. The expanded uncertainties evaluated were not correlated with each other and their analysis considered a rectangular probability distribution. The results are also presented in graphical form by the function of normalized activity measured in terms of conventional true value. (author)

  11. Incorporating organ movements in inverse planning: assessing dose uncertainties by Bayesian inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unkelbach, J; Oelfke, U

    2005-01-01

    We present a method to calculate dose uncertainties due to inter-fraction organ movements in fractionated radiotherapy, i.e. in addition to the expectation value of the dose distribution a variance distribution is calculated. To calculate the expectation value of the dose distribution in the presence of organ movements, one estimates a probability distribution of possible patient geometries. The respective variance of the expected dose distribution arises for two reasons: first, the patient is irradiated with a finite number of fractions only and second, the probability distribution of patient geometries has to be estimated from a small number of images and is therefore not exactly known. To quantify the total dose variance, we propose a method that is based on the principle of Bayesian inference. The method is of particular interest when organ motion is incorporated in inverse IMRT planning by means of inverse planning performed on a probability distribution of patient geometries. In order to make this a robust approach, it turns out that the dose variance should be considered (and minimized) in the optimization process. As an application of the presented concept of Bayesian inference, we compare three approaches to inverse planning based on probability distributions that account for an increasing degree of uncertainty. The Bayes theorem further provides a concept to interpolate between patient specific data and population-based knowledge on organ motion which is relevant since the number of CT images of a patient is typically small

  12. A review of the uncertainties in internal radiation dose assessment for inhaled thorium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hewson, G.S.

    1989-01-01

    Present assessments of internal radiation dose to designated radiation workers in the mineral sands industry, calculated using ICRP 26/30 methodology and data, indicate that some workers approach and exceed statutory radiation dose limits. Such exposures are indicative of the need for a critical assessment of work and operational procedures and also of metabolic and dosimetric models used to estimate internal dose. This paper reviews past occupational exposure experience with inhaled thorium compounds, examines uncertainties in the underlying radiation protection models, and indicates the effect of alternative assumptions on the calculation of committed effective dose equivalent. The extremely low recommended inhalation limits for thorium in air do not appear to be well supported by studies on the health status of former thorium refinery workers who were exposed to thorium well in excess of presently accepted limits. The effect of cautious model assumptions is shown to result in internal dose assessments that could be up to an order of magnitude too high. It is concluded that the effect of such uncertainty constrains the usefulness of internal dose estimates as a reliable indicator of actual health risk. 26 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  13. Proof of concept and dose estimation with binary responses under model uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klingenberg, B

    2009-01-30

    This article suggests a unified framework for testing Proof of Concept (PoC) and estimating a target dose for the benefit of a more comprehensive, robust and powerful analysis in phase II or similar clinical trials. From a pre-specified set of candidate models, we choose the ones that best describe the observed dose-response. To decide which models, if any, significantly pick up a dose effect, we construct the permutation distribution of the minimum P-value over the candidate set. This allows us to find critical values and multiplicity adjusted P-values that control the familywise error rate of declaring any spurious effect in the candidate set as significant. Model averaging is then used to estimate a target dose. Popular single or multiple contrast tests for PoC, such as the Cochran-Armitage, Dunnett or Williams tests, are only optimal for specific dose-response shapes and do not provide target dose estimates with confidence limits. A thorough evaluation and comparison of our approach to these tests reveal that its power is as good or better in detecting a dose-response under various shapes with many more additional benefits: It incorporates model uncertainty in PoC decisions and target dose estimation, yields confidence intervals for target dose estimates and extends to more complicated data structures. We illustrate our method with the analysis of a Phase II clinical trial. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Internal dose assessments: Uncertainty studies and update of ideas guidelines and databases within CONRAD project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsh, J. W.; Castellani, C. M.; Hurtgen, C.; Lopez, M. A.; Andrasi, A.; Bailey, M. R.; Birchall, A.; Blanchardon, E.; Desai, A. D.; Dorrian, M. D.; Doerfel, H.; Koukouliou, V.; Luciani, A.; Malatova, I.; Molokanov, A.; Puncher, M.; Vrba, T.

    2008-01-01

    The work of Task Group 5.1 (uncertainty studies and revision of IDEAS guidelines) and Task Group 5.5 (update of IDEAS databases) of the CONRAD project is described. Scattering factor (SF) values (i.e. measurement uncertainties) have been calculated for different radionuclides and types of monitoring data using real data contained in the IDEAS Internal Contamination Database. Based upon this work and other published values, default SF values are suggested. Uncertainty studies have been carried out using both a Bayesian approach as well as a frequentist (classical) approach. The IDEAS guidelines have been revised in areas relating to the evaluation of an effective AMAD, guidance is given on evaluating wound cases with the NCRP wound model and suggestions made on the number and type of measurements required for dose assessment. (authors)

  15. Delivered dose uncertainty analysis at the tumor apex for ocular brachytherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, Hali, E-mail: hamorris@ualberta.ca; Menon, Geetha; Larocque, Matthew P.; Jans, Hans-Sonke; Sloboda, Ron S. [Department of Medical Physics, Cross Cancer Institute, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1Z2, Canada and Department of Oncology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R3 (Canada); Weis, Ezekiel [Department of Ophthalmology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R3 (Canada)

    2016-08-15

    Purpose: To estimate the total dosimetric uncertainty at the tumor apex for ocular brachytherapy treatments delivered using 16 mm Collaborative Ocular Melanoma Study (COMS) and Super9 plaques loaded with {sup 125}I seeds in order to determine the size of the apex margin that would be required to ensure adequate dosimetric coverage of the tumor. Methods: The total dosimetric uncertainty was assessed for three reference tumor heights: 3, 5, and 10 mm, using the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement/National Institute of Standards and Technology approach. Uncertainties pertaining to seed construction, source strength, plaque assembly, treatment planning calculations, tumor height measurement, plaque placement, and plaque tilt for a simple dome-shaped tumor were investigated and quantified to estimate the total dosimetric uncertainty at the tumor apex. Uncertainties in seed construction were determined using EBT3 Gafchromic film measurements around single seeds, plaque assembly uncertainties were determined using high resolution microCT scanning of loaded plaques to measure seed positions in the plaques, and all other uncertainties were determined from the previously published studies and recommended values. All dose calculations were performed using PLAQUESIMULATOR v5.7.6 ophthalmic treatment planning system with the inclusion of plaque heterogeneity corrections. Results: The total dosimetric uncertainties at 3, 5, and 10 mm tumor heights for the 16 mm COMS plaque were 17.3%, 16.1%, and 14.2%, respectively, and for the Super9 plaque were 18.2%, 14.4%, and 13.1%, respectively (all values with coverage factor k = 2). The apex margins at 3, 5, and 10 mm tumor heights required to adequately account for these uncertainties were 1.3, 1.3, and 1.4 mm, respectively, for the 16 mm COMS plaque, and 1.8, 1.4, and 1.2 mm, respectively, for the Super9 plaque. These uncertainties and associated margins are dependent on the dose gradient at the given prescription

  16. Evaluation of the uncertainties in the TLD radiosurgery postal dose system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, L. T.; Leite, S. P.; de Almeida, C. E. V.; Magalhães, L. A. G.

    2018-03-01

    Stereotactic radiosurgery is a single-fraction radiation therapy procedure for treating intracranial lesions using a stereotactic apparatus and multiple narrow beams delivered through noncoplanar isocentric arcs. To guarantee a high quality standard, a comprehensive Quality Assurance programme is extremely important to ensure that the measured dose is consistent with the tolerance considered to improve treatment quality. The Radiological Science Laboratory operates a postal audit programme in SRT and SRS. The purpose of the programme is to verify the target localization accuracy in known geometry and the dosimetric conditions of the TPS. The programme works in such a way those thermoluminescence dosimeters, consisting of LiF chips, are sent to the centre where they are to be irradiated to a certain dose. The TLD are then returned, where they are evaluated and the absorbed dose is obtained from TLDs readings. The aim of the present work is estimate the uncertainties in the process of dose determination, using experimental data.

  17. Evaluation of the uncertainties in the TLD radiosurgery postal dose system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campos, Luciana Tourinho; Leite, Sandro Passos; Almeida, Carlos Eduardo Veloso de; Magalhães, Luís Alexandre Gonçalves

    2017-01-01

    Radiosurgery is a single-fraction radiation therapy procedure for treating intracranial lesions using a stereotactic apparatus and multiple narrow beams delivered through noncoplanar isocentric arcs. The Radiological Science Laboratory (LCR/UERJ) operates a postal audit programme in SRT and SRS. The purpose of the programme is to verify the target localization accuracy and the dosimetric conditions of the TPS. The programme works in such a way those TLDs are sent to the centre where they are to be irradiated to a certain dose. The aim of the present work is estimate the uncertainties in the process of dose determination, using experimental data. (author)

  18. Evaluation of the uncertainties in the TLD radiosurgery postal dose system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos, Luciana Tourinho; Leite, Sandro Passos; Almeida, Carlos Eduardo Veloso de; Magalhães, Luís Alexandre Gonçalves, E-mail: tc_luciana@yahoo.com.br [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    Radiosurgery is a single-fraction radiation therapy procedure for treating intracranial lesions using a stereotactic apparatus and multiple narrow beams delivered through noncoplanar isocentric arcs. The Radiological Science Laboratory (LCR/UERJ) operates a postal audit programme in SRT and SRS. The purpose of the programme is to verify the target localization accuracy and the dosimetric conditions of the TPS. The programme works in such a way those TLDs are sent to the centre where they are to be irradiated to a certain dose. The aim of the present work is estimate the uncertainties in the process of dose determination, using experimental data. (author)

  19. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies.

  20. Variations in environmental tritium doses due to meteorological data averaging and uncertainties in pathway model parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kock, A.

    1996-05-01

    The objectives of this research are: (1) to calculate and compare off site doses from atmospheric tritium releases at the Savannah River Site using monthly versus 5 year meteorological data and annual source terms, including additional seasonal and site specific parameters not included in present annual assessments; and (2) to calculate the range of the above dose estimates based on distributions in model parameters given by uncertainty estimates found in the literature. Consideration will be given to the sensitivity of parameters given in former studies

  1. Uncertainties in the correction factors as the dose polarization and recombination at different energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alejo Luque, L.; Rodriguez Romero, R.; Castro Tejero, P.; Fandino Lareo, J. M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the measures and uncertainties of the correction factors for dose-polarization (k, 1) and recombination (k,) of different ionization chambers plane-parallel and cylindrical. The values ??have been obtained using photon and electron beams of various energies generated by linear accelerators nominal Varian 21EX CLJNAC Tomotherapy Hi-Art and JI. We study the cases in which you can avoid the application of the factors obtained, according to the criteria proposed

  2. Changes in Rectal Dose Due to Alterations in Beam Angles for Setup Uncertainty and Range Uncertainty in Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshiki Kubota

    Full Text Available Carbon-ion radiotherapy of prostate cancer is challenging in patients with metal implants in one or both hips. Problems can be circumvented by using fields at oblique angles. To evaluate the influence of setup and range uncertainties accompanying oblique field angles, we calculated rectal dose changes with oblique orthogonal field angles, using a device with fixed fields at 0° and 90° and a rotating patient couch.Dose distributions were calculated at the standard angles of 0° and 90°, and then at 30° and 60°. Setup uncertainty was simulated with changes from -2 mm to +2 mm for fields in the anterior-posterior, left-right, and cranial-caudal directions, and dose changes from range uncertainty were calculated with a 1 mm water-equivalent path length added to the target isocenter in each angle. The dose distributions regarding the passive irradiation method were calculated using the K2 dose algorithm.The rectal volumes with 0°, 30°, 60°, and 90° field angles at 95% of the prescription dose were 3.4±0.9 cm3, 2.8±1.1 cm3, 2.2±0.8 cm3, and 3.8±1.1 cm3, respectively. As compared with 90° fields, 30° and 60° fields had significant advantages regarding setup uncertainty and significant disadvantages regarding range uncertainty, but were not significantly different from the 90° field setup and range uncertainties.The setup and range uncertainties calculated at 30° and 60° field angles were not associated with a significant change in rectal dose relative to those at 90°.

  3. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  4. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  5. Analysis of uncertainties in the measurements of absorbed dose to water in a secondary standard dosimetry laboratory (SSDL) 60Cobalt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Cosme Norival Mello da; Rosado, Paulo Henrique Goncalves

    2011-01-01

    The National Metrology Laboratory of Ionizing Radiation (LNMRI) is the laboratory designated by INMETRO in the field of Metrology of ionizing radiation and is a Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). One of its guidelines is to maintain and disseminate LNMRI absorbed dose in water used as a national standard dosimetry in radiotherapy. For this pattern is metrologically acceptable accuracy and uncertainties should be assessed over time. The objective of this study is to analyze the uncertainties involved in determining the absorbed dose rate in water and standard uncertainty of absorbed dose calibration in water from a clinical dosimeter. The largest sources of uncertainty in determining the rate of absorbed dose in water are due to: calibration coefficient of the calibration certificate supplied by the BIPM, electrometer calibration, camber stability over time, variation of pressure and humidity, strong dependence and non-uniformity of the field. The expanded uncertainty is 0.94% for k = 2. For the calibration standard uncertainty of absorbed dose in water of a dosimeter in a clinical a major source of uncertainty is due to the absorbed dose rate in water (0.94%). The value of expanded uncertainty of calibrating a clinical dosimeter is 1.2% for k = 2. (author)

  6. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Villemereuil Pierre de

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

  7. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

  8. Quantification of Uncertainties in Integrated Spacecraft System Models, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed effort is to investigate a novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) for computationally efficient...

  9. Effect of uncertainty in nasal airway deposition of radioactive particles on effective dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guilmette, R.A.; Birchall, A.; Jarvis, N.S

    1998-07-01

    In the current ICRP human respiratory tract (RT) model (ICRP Publication 66), the deposition of particles in various regions of the RT during natural breathing is modelled by considering the RT as a series of filters, resulting in deposition probabilities for distal portions of the RT being dependent on those of the proximal segments. Thus, uncertainties in regional deposition in proximal segments of the RT are reflected or propagated in uncertainties in deposition in the distal segments of the lung. Experimental data on aerosol particle deposition have demonstrated significant variability in nasal airway (NA) deposition for different individuals studied. This report summarises the impact of introducing variability in NA deposition efficiency on the calculation of effective doses using the ICRP 66 model for selected radionuclides. The computer software LUDEP, modified for this purpose, was used to customise deposition patterns, and effective doses were calculated for several radionuclides ({sup 111}In, {sup 106}Ru, {sup 60}Co, {sup 210}Po, {sup 238}U and {sup 239}Pu) chosen to represent isotopes with various decay schemes and half-lives. The results indicated significant but particle-size-specific effects of assumed NA deposition efficiencies on the calculated effective doses, which varied typically by factors of five to six. The majority of the variability was associated with direct effects on deposition patterns, but in some cases, alterations of radiation dose distribution within the various target organs also contributed to the variability. These results provide a basis for evaluating uncertainties due to inter-individual differences in deposition patterns for radiation protection and risk analysis. (author)

  10. Sensitivity of low energy brachytherapy Monte Carlo dose calculations to uncertainties in human tissue composition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landry, Guillaume; Reniers, Brigitte; Murrer, Lars; Lutgens, Ludy; Bloemen-Van Gurp, Esther; Pignol, Jean-Philippe; Keller, Brian; Beaulieu, Luc; Verhaegen, Frank [Department of Radiation Oncology (MAASTRO), GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht 6201 BN (Netherlands); Department of Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M4N 3M5 (Canada); Departement de Radio-Oncologie et Centre de Recherche en Cancerologie, de l' Universite Laval, CHUQ, Pavillon L' Hotel-Dieu de Quebec, Quebec G1R 2J6 (Canada) and Departement de Physique, de Genie Physique et d' Optique, Universite Laval, Quebec G1K 7P4 (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology (MAASTRO), GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht 6201 BN (Netherlands) and Medical Physics Unit, McGill University, Montreal General Hospital, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1A4 (Canada)

    2010-10-15

    Purpose: The objective of this work is to assess the sensitivity of Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculations to uncertainties in human tissue composition for a range of low photon energy brachytherapy sources: {sup 125}I, {sup 103}Pd, {sup 131}Cs, and an electronic brachytherapy source (EBS). The low energy photons emitted by these sources make the dosimetry sensitive to variations in tissue atomic number due to the dominance of the photoelectric effect. This work reports dose to a small mass of water in medium D{sub w,m} as opposed to dose to a small mass of medium in medium D{sub m,m}. Methods: Mean adipose, mammary gland, and breast tissues (as uniform mixture of the aforementioned tissues) are investigated as well as compositions corresponding to one standard deviation from the mean. Prostate mean compositions from three different literature sources are also investigated. Three sets of MC simulations are performed with the GEANT4 code: (1) Dose calculations for idealized TG-43-like spherical geometries using point sources. Radial dose profiles obtained in different media are compared to assess the influence of compositional uncertainties. (2) Dose calculations for four clinical prostate LDR brachytherapy permanent seed implants using {sup 125}I seeds (Model 2301, Best Medical, Springfield, VA). The effect of varying the prostate composition in the planning target volume (PTV) is investigated by comparing PTV D{sub 90} values. (3) Dose calculations for four clinical breast LDR brachytherapy permanent seed implants using {sup 103}Pd seeds (Model 2335, Best Medical). The effects of varying the adipose/gland ratio in the PTV and of varying the elemental composition of adipose and gland within one standard deviation of the assumed mean composition are investigated by comparing PTV D{sub 90} values. For (2) and (3), the influence of using the mass density from CT scans instead of unit mass density is also assessed. Results: Results from simulation (1) show that variations

  11. Determination of the integral dose in CT of the neurocranium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahim, H.; Mandl, H.; Hofmann, W.; Grobovschek, M.

    1985-12-01

    The amount of exposure of the cranium is calculated on the basis of the measured dose distribution in craniocaudal direction and on the axial planes of the Alderson phantom. The integral dose of the cranium and the local dose at sensitive organs are used as a measure of radiation exposure. (orig.).

  12. UNCERTAINTY ON RADIATION DOSES ESTIMATED BY BIOLOGICAL AND RETROSPECTIVE PHYSICAL METHODS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Samaga, Daniel; Della Monaca, Sara; Marrale, Maurizio; Bassinet, Celine; Burbidge, Christopher I; Correcher, Virgilio; Discher, Michael; Eakins, Jon; Fattibene, Paola; Güçlü, Inci; Higueras, Manuel; Lund, Eva; Maltar-Strmecki, Nadica; McKeever, Stephen; Rääf, Christopher L; Sholom, Sergey; Veronese, Ivan; Wieser, Albrecht; Woda, Clemens; Trompier, Francois

    2018-03-01

    Biological and physical retrospective dosimetry are recognised as key techniques to provide individual estimates of dose following unplanned exposures to ionising radiation. Whilst there has been a relatively large amount of recent development in the biological and physical procedures, development of statistical analysis techniques has failed to keep pace. The aim of this paper is to review the current state of the art in uncertainty analysis techniques across the 'EURADOS Working Group 10-Retrospective dosimetry' members, to give concrete examples of implementation of the techniques recommended in the international standards, and to further promote the use of Monte Carlo techniques to support characterisation of uncertainties. It is concluded that sufficient techniques are available and in use by most laboratories for acute, whole body exposures to highly penetrating radiation, but further work will be required to ensure that statistical analysis is always wholly sufficient for the more complex exposure scenarios.

  13. Managing uncertainty in fi shing and processing of an integrated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The firm attempts to manage this uncertainty through planning co-ordination of fishing trawler scheduling, catch quota, processing and labour allocation, and inventory control. Schedules must necessarily be determined over some finite planning time horizon, and the trawler schedule itself introduces man-made variability, ...

  14. Model Uncertainty via the Integration of Hormesis and LNT as the Default in Cancer Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-01-01

    On June 23, 2015, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a formal notice in the Federal Register that it would consider whether "it should amend its 'Standards for Protection Against Radiation' regulations from the linear non-threshold (LNT) model of radiation protection to the hormesis model." The present commentary supports this recommendation based on the (1) flawed and deceptive history of the adoption of LNT by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1956; (2) the documented capacity of hormesis to make more accurate predictions of biological responses for diverse biological end points in the low-dose zone; (3) the occurrence of extensive hormetic data from the peer-reviewed biomedical literature that revealed hormetic responses are highly generalizable, being independent of biological model, end point measured, inducing agent, level of biological organization, and mechanism; and (4) the integration of hormesis and LNT models via a model uncertainty methodology that optimizes public health responses at 10(-4). Thus, both LNT and hormesis can be integratively used for risk assessment purposes, and this integration defines the so-called "regulatory sweet spot."

  15. Integrated fatigue damage diagnosis and prognosis under uncertainties

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An integrated fatigue damage diagnosis and prognosis framework is proposed in this paper. The proposed methodology integrates a Lamb wave-based damage detection...

  16. Uncertainty analysis in the determination of absorbed dose in water by Fricke chemical dosimetry; Analise das incertezas na determinacao da dose absorvida na agua por dosimetria quimica Fricke

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcelos, Fabia; Aguirre, Eder Aguirre, E-mail: fabiavasco@hotmail.com, E-mail: ederuni01@gmail.com [Fundacao do Cancer, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), RJ (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    This work studies the calculations of uncertainties and the level of confidence that involves the process for obtaining the dose absorbed in water using the method of Fricke dosimetry, developed at Laboratorio de Ciencias Radiologicas (LCR). Measurements of absorbance of samples Fricke, irradiated and non-irradiated is going to use in order to calculate the respective sensitivity coefficients, along with the expressions of the calculation of Fricke dose and the absorbed dose in water. Those expressions are used for calculating the others sensitivity coefficients from the input variable. It is going to use the combined uncertainty and the expanded uncertainty, with a level of confidence of 95.45%, in order to report the uncertainties of the measurement. (author)

  17. A method for calculating Bayesian uncertainties on internal doses resulting from complex occupational exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puncher, M.; Birchall, A.; Bull, R. K.

    2012-01-01

    Estimating uncertainties on doses from bioassay data is of interest in epidemiology studies that estimate cancer risk from occupational exposures to radionuclides. Bayesian methods provide a logical framework to calculate these uncertainties. However, occupational exposures often consist of many intakes, and this can make the Bayesian calculation computationally intractable. This paper describes a novel strategy for increasing the computational speed of the calculation by simplifying the intake pattern to a single composite intake, termed as complex intake regime (CIR). In order to assess whether this approximation is accurate and fast enough for practical purposes, the method is implemented by the Weighted Likelihood Monte Carlo Sampling (WeLMoS) method and evaluated by comparing its performance with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC method gives the full solution (all intakes are independent), but is very computationally intensive to apply routinely. Posterior distributions of model parameter values, intakes and doses are calculated for a representative sample of plutonium workers from the United Kingdom Atomic Energy cohort using the WeLMoS method with the CIR and the MCMC method. The distributions are in good agreement: posterior means and Q 0.025 and Q 0.975 quantiles are typically within 20 %. Furthermore, the WeLMoS method using the CIR converges quickly: a typical case history takes around 10-20 min on a fast workstation, whereas the MCMC method took around 12-hr. The advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed. (authors)

  18. INTEGRATION OF SYSTEM COMPONENTS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS - HANFORD EXAMPLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, M.I.

    2009-01-01

    (sm b ullet) Deterministic 'One Off' analyses as basis for evaluating sensitivity and uncertainty relative to reference case (sm b ullet) Spatial coverage identical to reference case (sm b ullet) Two types of analysis assumptions - Minimax parameter values around reference case conditions - 'What If' cases that change reference case condition and associated parameter values (sm b ullet) No conclusions about likelihood of estimated result other than' qualitative expectation that actual outcome should tend toward reference case estimate

  19. SU-F-BRE-14: Uncertainty Analysis for Dose Measurements Using OSLD NanoDots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kry, S; Alvarez, P; Stingo, F; Followill, D [UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLD) are an increasingly popular dosimeter for research and clinical applications. It is also used by the Radiological Physics Center for remote auditing of machine output. In this work we robustly calculated the reproducibility and uncertainty of the OSLD nanoDot. Methods: For the RPC dose calculation, raw readings are corrected for depletion, element sensitivity, fading, linearity, and energy. System calibration is determined for the experimental OSLD irradiated at different institutions by using OSLD irradiated by the RPC under reference conditions (i.e., standards): 1 Gy in a Cobalt beam. The intra-dot and inter-dot reproducibilities (coefficient of variation) were determined from the history of RPC readings of these standards. The standard deviation of the corrected OSLD signal was then calculated analytically using a recursive formalism that did not rely on the normality assumption of the underlying uncertainties, or on any type of mathematical approximation. This analytical uncertainty was compared to that empirically estimated from >45,000 RPC beam audits. Results: The intra-dot variability was found to be 0.59%, with only a small variation between readers. Inter-dot variability was found to be 0.85%. The uncertainty in each of the individual correction factors was empirically determined. When the raw counts from each OSLD were adjusted for the appropriate correction factors, the analytically determined coefficient of variation was 1.8% over a range of institutional irradiation conditions that are seen at the RPC. This is reasonably consistent with the empirical observations of the RPC, where the coefficient of variation of the measured beam outputs is 1.6% (photons) and 1.9% (electrons). Conclusion: OSLD nanoDots provide sufficiently good precision for a wide range of applications, including the RPC remote monitoring program for megavoltage beams. This work was supported by PHS grant CA10953 awarded by

  20. Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2016-01-01

    The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.

  1. Low-dose extrapolation of radiation health risks: some implications of uncertainty for radiation protection at low doses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land, Charles E

    2009-11-01

    Ionizing radiation is a known and well-quantified human cancer risk factor, based on a remarkably consistent body of information from epidemiological studies of exposed populations. Typical examples of risk estimation include use of Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to estimate future risk from radiation-related cancer among American patients receiving multiple computed tomography scans, persons affected by radioactive fallout, or persons whose livelihoods involve some radiation exposure, such as x-ray technicians, interventional radiologists, or shipyard workers. Our estimates of radiation-related risk are uncertain, reflecting statistical variation and our imperfect understanding of crucial assumptions that must be made if we are to apply existing epidemiological data to particular situations. Fortunately, that uncertainty is also highly quantifiable, and can be presented concisely and transparently. Radiation protection is ultimately a political process that involves consent by stakeholders, a diverse group that includes people who might be expected to be risk-averse and concerned with plausible upper limits on risk (how bad could it be?), cost-averse and concerned with lower limits on risk (can you prove there is a nontrivial risk at current dose levels?), or combining both points of view. How radiation-related risk is viewed by individuals and population subgroups also depends very much on perception of related benefit, which might be (for example) medical, economic, altruistic, or nonexistent. The following presentation follows the lead of National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Commentary 14, NCRP Report 126, and later documents in treating radiation protection from the viewpoint of quantitative uncertainty analysis.

  2. Methodology for optimization of process integration schemes in a biorefinery under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >González-Cortés, Meilyn; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Martínez-Martínez, Yenisleidys; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Albernas-Carvajal, Yailet; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Pedraza-Garciga, Julio; Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" data-affiliation=" (Departamento de Ingeniería Química. Facultad de Química y Farmacia. Universidad Central Marta Abreu de las Villas (Cuba))" >Morales-Zamora, Marlen

    2017-01-01

    The uncertainty has a great impact in the investment decisions, operability of the plants and in the feasibility of integration opportunities in the chemical processes. This paper, presents the steps to consider the optimization of process investment in the processes integration under conditions of uncertainty. It is shown the potentialities of the biomass cane of sugar for the integration with several plants in a biorefinery scheme for the obtaining chemical products, thermal and electric energy. Among the factories with potentialities for this integration are the pulp and paper and sugar factories and other derivative processes. Theses factories have common resources and also have a variety of products that can be exchange between them so certain products generated in a one of them can be raw matter in another plant. The methodology developed guide to obtaining of feasible investment projects under uncertainty. As objective function was considered the maximization of net profitable value in different scenarios that are generated from the integration scheme. (author)

  3. Reducing Dose Uncertainty for Spot-Scanning Proton Beam Therapy of Moving Tumors by Optimizing the Spot Delivery Sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Heng; Zhu, X. Ronald; Zhang, Xiaodong

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To develop and validate a novel delivery strategy for reducing the respiratory motion–induced dose uncertainty of spot-scanning proton therapy. Methods and Materials: The spot delivery sequence was optimized to reduce dose uncertainty. The effectiveness of the delivery sequence optimization was evaluated using measurements and patient simulation. One hundred ninety-one 2-dimensional measurements using different delivery sequences of a single-layer uniform pattern were obtained with a detector array on a 1-dimensional moving platform. Intensity modulated proton therapy plans were generated for 10 lung cancer patients, and dose uncertainties for different delivery sequences were evaluated by simulation. Results: Without delivery sequence optimization, the maximum absolute dose error can be up to 97.2% in a single measurement, whereas the optimized delivery sequence results in a maximum absolute dose error of ≤11.8%. In patient simulation, the optimized delivery sequence reduces the mean of fractional maximum absolute dose error compared with the regular delivery sequence by 3.3% to 10.6% (32.5-68.0% relative reduction) for different patients. Conclusions: Optimizing the delivery sequence can reduce dose uncertainty due to respiratory motion in spot-scanning proton therapy, assuming the 4-dimensional CT is a true representation of the patients' breathing patterns.

  4. Integrating Dynamic Pricing and Replenishment Decisions Under Supply Capacity Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Qi Feng

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines an integrated decision-making process regarding pricing for uncertain demand and sourcing from uncertain supply, which are often studied separately in the literature. Our analysis of the integrated system suggests that the base stock list price policy fails to achieve optimality even under deterministic demand. Instead, the optimal policy is characterized by two critical values: a reorder point and a target safety stock. Under this policy, a positive order is issued if and...

  5. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of dose estimates in radiochromic film dosimetry with single-channel and multichannel algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Sánchez, Juan Antonio; Ruiz-Morales, Carmen; González-López, Antonio

    2018-03-01

    To provide a multi-stage model to calculate uncertainty in radiochromic film dosimetry with Monte-Carlo techniques. This new approach is applied to single-channel and multichannel algorithms. Two lots of Gafchromic EBT3 are exposed in two different Varian linacs. They are read with an EPSON V800 flatbed scanner. The Monte-Carlo techniques in uncertainty analysis provide a numerical representation of the probability density functions of the output magnitudes. From this numerical representation, traditional parameters of uncertainty analysis as the standard deviations and bias are calculated. Moreover, these numerical representations are used to investigate the shape of the probability density functions of the output magnitudes. Also, another calibration film is read in four EPSON scanners (two V800 and two 10000XL) and the uncertainty analysis is carried out with the four images. The dose estimates of single-channel and multichannel algorithms show a Gaussian behavior and low bias. The multichannel algorithms lead to less uncertainty in the final dose estimates when the EPSON V800 is employed as reading device. In the case of the EPSON 10000XL, the single-channel algorithms provide less uncertainty in the dose estimates for doses higher than four Gy. A multi-stage model has been presented. With the aid of this model and the use of the Monte-Carlo techniques, the uncertainty of dose estimates for single-channel and multichannel algorithms are estimated. The application of the model together with Monte-Carlo techniques leads to a complete characterization of the uncertainties in radiochromic film dosimetry. Copyright © 2018 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Uncertainties in contamination level and in doses after exposure to actinide aerosols

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritsch, P.; Berard, P.; Frank, D.; Ansoborlo, E.; Fottorino, R.; Challeton-Devatayre, C.; Miele, A.; Blanchin, N.; Raynaud, P.; Piechowski, J. [CEA Cadarache, MEDOR, A. Miele, SST, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France)

    2006-07-01

    A task group named 'Methodes Dosimetriques de Reference' (M.E.D.O.R.) has been created recently to provide didactic tools for dose estimation from bioassay data obtained after occupational exposure. This task group is focused on 1) application limits of the available models, 2) uncertainties in radionuclide biokinetics and in doses, and 3) identification of the main parameters involved in these uncertainties. First, uncertainties in biokinetics of {sup 239}Pu (thoracic retention and excretion) and in doses have been estimated after acute inhalation of PuO{sub 2} (A.M.A.D. 5{mu}m, type S). This was performed either when the activity of the inhaled aerosol (case 1) or the thoracic retention on day 1 (case 2) could be measured. Variability assigned to the different parameters of the ICRP models was that previously reported. After simulation, a lognormal distribution of the results was observed so that uncertainties can be expressed as 95 % Confidence interval Ratio (C.R.={sigma}{sub g}{sup 4}). In case 1, most of the uncertainties were due to aerosol deposition and remained nearly constant for 1000 days after exposure (thoracic, faecal and urinary C.R. of 8, 6 -30 and 10, respectively). In contrast, in case 2, thoracic C.R. gradually increased from 1.5 to 5, faecal C.R. was similar to that of case 1 up to 20 days and then sharply decreased to about 3, whereas C.R. of urinary excretion remained similar to case 1 throughout the 1000 day period. Uncertainties in D.P.U.I. were much higher in case 1 (C.R.=7) than in case 2 (C.R.=2) and were both mainly due to the uncertainties in thoracic equivalent doses. Second, different bioassay data were analysed to verify if the observed results were within the C.R. previously calculated for case 2. Two cases are provided as examples which appeared out of this range. The first one corresponds to an acute exposure to PuO{sub 2} aerosols which was followed for about 20 years. Fit analysis has shown a low value of the slow

  7. Uncertainties in contamination level and in doses after exposure to actinide aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritsch, P.; Berard, P.; Frank, D.; Ansoborlo, E.; Fottorino, R.; Challeton-Devatayre, C.; Miele, A.; Blanchin, N.; Raynaud, P.; Piechowski, J.

    2006-01-01

    A task group named 'Methodes Dosimetriques de Reference' (M.E.D.O.R.) has been created recently to provide didactic tools for dose estimation from bioassay data obtained after occupational exposure. This task group is focused on 1) application limits of the available models, 2) uncertainties in radionuclide biokinetics and in doses, and 3) identification of the main parameters involved in these uncertainties. First, uncertainties in biokinetics of 239 Pu (thoracic retention and excretion) and in doses have been estimated after acute inhalation of PuO 2 (A.M.A.D. 5μm, type S). This was performed either when the activity of the inhaled aerosol (case 1) or the thoracic retention on day 1 (case 2) could be measured. Variability assigned to the different parameters of the ICRP models was that previously reported. After simulation, a lognormal distribution of the results was observed so that uncertainties can be expressed as 95 % Confidence interval Ratio (C.R.=σ g 4 ). In case 1, most of the uncertainties were due to aerosol deposition and remained nearly constant for 1000 days after exposure (thoracic, faecal and urinary C.R. of 8, 6 -30 and 10, respectively). In contrast, in case 2, thoracic C.R. gradually increased from 1.5 to 5, faecal C.R. was similar to that of case 1 up to 20 days and then sharply decreased to about 3, whereas C.R. of urinary excretion remained similar to case 1 throughout the 1000 day period. Uncertainties in D.P.U.I. were much higher in case 1 (C.R.=7) than in case 2 (C.R.=2) and were both mainly due to the uncertainties in thoracic equivalent doses. Second, different bioassay data were analysed to verify if the observed results were within the C.R. previously calculated for case 2. Two cases are provided as examples which appeared out of this range. The first one corresponds to an acute exposure to PuO 2 aerosols which was followed for about 20 years. Fit analysis has shown a low value of the slow dissolution rate of the compound and an

  8. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  9. An Integrated Approach for Characterization of Uncertainty in Complex Best Estimate Safety Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourgol-Mohamad, Mohammad; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses an approach called Integrated Methodology for Thermal-Hydraulics Uncertainty Analysis (IMTHUA) to characterize and integrate a wide range of uncertainties associated with the best estimate models and complex system codes used for nuclear power plant safety analyses. Examples of applications include complex thermal hydraulic and fire analysis codes. In identifying and assessing uncertainties, the proposed methodology treats the complex code as a 'white box', thus explicitly treating internal sub-model uncertainties in addition to the uncertainties related to the inputs to the code. The methodology accounts for uncertainties related to experimental data used to develop such sub-models, and efficiently propagates all uncertainties during best estimate calculations. Uncertainties are formally analyzed and probabilistically treated using a Bayesian inference framework. This comprehensive approach presents the results in a form usable in most other safety analyses such as the probabilistic safety assessment. The code output results are further updated through additional Bayesian inference using any available experimental data, for example from thermal hydraulic integral test facilities. The approach includes provisions to account for uncertainties associated with user-specified options, for example for choices among alternative sub-models, or among several different correlations. Complex time-dependent best-estimate calculations are computationally intense. The paper presents approaches to minimize computational intensity during the uncertainty propagation. Finally, the paper will report effectiveness and practicality of the methodology with two applications to a complex thermal-hydraulics system code as well as a complex fire simulation code. In case of multiple alternative models, several techniques, including dynamic model switching, user-controlled model selection, and model mixing, are discussed. (authors)

  10. Uncertainties in soil-plant interactions in advanced models for long-timescale dose assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, R. [Aleksandria Sciences Ltd. (United Kingdom); Limer, L. [Limer Scientific Ltd. (United Kingdom); Perez-Sanchez, D. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas - CIEMAT (Spain); Xu, S.; Andersson, P. [Swedish Radiation Safty Authority (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    Traditional models for long-timescale dose assessment are generally conceptually straightforward, featuring one, two or three spatial compartments in the soil column and employing data based on annually averaged parameters for climate characteristics. The soil-plant system is usually modelled using concentration ratios. The justification for this approach is that the timescales relevant to the geologic disposal of radioactive waste are so long that simple conceptual models are necessary to account for the inherent uncertainties over the timescale of the dose assessment. In the past few years, attention has been given to more detailed 'advanced' models for use dose assessment that have a high degree of site-specific detail. These recognise more features, events and processes since they have higher spatial and temporal resolution. This modelling approach has been developed to account for redox sensitive radionuclides, variability of the water table position and accumulation in non-agricultural ecosystems prior to conversion to an agricultural ecosystem. The models feature higher spatial and temporal resolution in the soil column (up to ten layers with spatially varying k{sub d}s dependent on soil conditions) and monthly rather than annually averaged parameters. Soil-plant interaction is treated as a dynamic process, allowing for root uptake as a function of time and depth, according to the root profile. Uncertainty in dose assessment models associated with the treatment of prior accumulations in agricultural soils has demonstrated the importance of the model's representation of the soil-plant interaction. The treatment of root uptake as a dynamic process as opposed to a simple concentration ratio implies a potentially important difference despite the dynamic soil-plant transfer rate being based on established concentration ratio values. These discrepancies have also appeared in the results from the higher spatio-temporal resolution models. This paper

  11. SU-F-T-301: Planar Dose Pass Rate Inflation Due to the MapCHECK Measurement Uncertainty Function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, D; Spaans, J; Kumaraswamy, L; Podgorsak, M

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To quantify the effect of the Measurement Uncertainty function on planar dosimetry pass rates, as analyzed with Sun Nuclear Corporation analytic software (“MapCHECK” or “SNC Patient”). This optional function is toggled on by default upon software installation, and automatically increases the user-defined dose percent difference (%Diff) tolerance for each planar dose comparison. Methods: Dose planes from 109 IMRT fields and 40 VMAT arcs were measured with the MapCHECK 2 diode array, and compared to calculated planes from a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates were calculated within the SNC analytic software using varying calculation parameters, including Measurement Uncertainty on and off. By varying the %Diff criterion for each dose comparison performed with Measurement Uncertainty turned off, an effective %Diff criterion was defined for each field/arc corresponding to the pass rate achieved with MapCHECK Uncertainty turned on. Results: For 3%/3mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.8–1.1% average, depending on plan type and calculation technique, for an average pass rate increase of 1.0–3.5% (maximum +8.7%). For 2%, 2 mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.7–1.2% average, for an average pass rate increase of 3.5–8.1% (maximum +14.2%). The largest increases in pass rate are generally seen with poorly-matched planar dose comparisons; the MapCHECK Uncertainty effect is markedly smaller as pass rates approach 100%. Conclusion: The Measurement Uncertainty function may substantially inflate planar dose comparison pass rates for typical IMRT and VMAT planes. The types of uncertainties incorporated into the function (and their associated quantitative estimates) as described in the software user’s manual may not accurately estimate realistic measurement uncertainty for the user’s measurement conditions. Pass rates listed in published

  12. SU-F-T-301: Planar Dose Pass Rate Inflation Due to the MapCHECK Measurement Uncertainty Function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bailey, D [Northside Hospital Cancer Institute, Atlanta, GA (United States); Spaans, J; Kumaraswamy, L; Podgorsak, M [Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To quantify the effect of the Measurement Uncertainty function on planar dosimetry pass rates, as analyzed with Sun Nuclear Corporation analytic software (“MapCHECK” or “SNC Patient”). This optional function is toggled on by default upon software installation, and automatically increases the user-defined dose percent difference (%Diff) tolerance for each planar dose comparison. Methods: Dose planes from 109 IMRT fields and 40 VMAT arcs were measured with the MapCHECK 2 diode array, and compared to calculated planes from a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates were calculated within the SNC analytic software using varying calculation parameters, including Measurement Uncertainty on and off. By varying the %Diff criterion for each dose comparison performed with Measurement Uncertainty turned off, an effective %Diff criterion was defined for each field/arc corresponding to the pass rate achieved with MapCHECK Uncertainty turned on. Results: For 3%/3mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.8–1.1% average, depending on plan type and calculation technique, for an average pass rate increase of 1.0–3.5% (maximum +8.7%). For 2%, 2 mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.7–1.2% average, for an average pass rate increase of 3.5–8.1% (maximum +14.2%). The largest increases in pass rate are generally seen with poorly-matched planar dose comparisons; the MapCHECK Uncertainty effect is markedly smaller as pass rates approach 100%. Conclusion: The Measurement Uncertainty function may substantially inflate planar dose comparison pass rates for typical IMRT and VMAT planes. The types of uncertainties incorporated into the function (and their associated quantitative estimates) as described in the software user’s manual may not accurately estimate realistic measurement uncertainty for the user’s measurement conditions. Pass rates listed in published

  13. Integral dose and evaluation of irradiated tissue volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sivachenko, T.P.; Kalina, V.K.; Belous, A.K.; Gaevskij, V.I.

    1984-01-01

    Two parameters having potentialities of radiotherapy planning improvement are under consideration. One of these two parameters in an integral dose. An efficiency of application of special tables for integral dose estimation is noted. These tables were developed by the Kiev Physician Improvement Institute and the Cybernetics Institute of the Ukrainian SSR Academy of Science. The meaning of the term of ''irradiated tissue volume'' is specified, and the method of calculation of the irradiated tissue effective mass is considered. It is possible to evaluate with higher accuracy tolerance doses taking into account the irradiated mass

  14. Uncertainty and sensitivity assessments of GPS and GIS integrated applications for transportation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sungchul; Vonderohe, Alan P

    2014-02-10

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods are introduced, concerning the quality of spatial data as well as that of output information from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated applications for transportation. In the methods, an error model and an error propagation method form a basis for formulating characterization and propagation of uncertainties. They are developed in two distinct approaches: analytical and simulation. Thus, an initial evaluation is performed to compare and examine uncertainty estimations from the analytical and simulation approaches. The evaluation results show that estimated ranges of output information from the analytical and simulation approaches are compatible, but the simulation approach rather than the analytical approach is preferred for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, due to its flexibility and capability to realize positional errors in both input data. Therefore, in a case study, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based upon the simulation approach is conducted on a winter maintenance application. The sensitivity analysis is used to determine optimum input data qualities, and the uncertainty analysis is then applied to estimate overall qualities of output information from the application. The analysis results show that output information from the non-distance-based computation model is not sensitive to positional uncertainties in input data. However, for the distance-based computational model, output information has a different magnitude of uncertainties, depending on position uncertainties in input data.

  15. Integrated flexible capacity and inventory management under flexible capacity uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Paç, Mehmet Fazıl

    2006-01-01

    Cataloged from PDF version of article. In a manufacturing environment with volatile demand, inventory management can be coupled with dynamic capacity adjustments for handling the fluctuations more effectively. In this study we consider the integrated management of inventory and flexible capacity management under seasonal stochastic demand and uncertain labor supply. The capacity planning problem is investigated from the workforce planning perspective. We consider a manufactu...

  16. GafChromic EBT film dosimetry with flatbed CCD scanner: a novel background correction method and full dose uncertainty analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saur, Sigrun; Frengen, Jomar

    2008-07-01

    Film dosimetry using radiochromic EBT film in combination with a flatbed charge coupled device scanner is a useful method both for two-dimensional verification of intensity-modulated radiation treatment plans and for general quality assurance of treatment planning systems and linear accelerators. Unfortunately, the response over the scanner area is nonuniform, and when not corrected for, this results in a systematic error in the measured dose which is both dose and position dependent. In this study a novel method for background correction is presented. The method is based on the subtraction of a correction matrix, a matrix that is based on scans of films that are irradiated to nine dose levels in the range 0.08-2.93 Gy. Because the response of the film is dependent on the film's orientation with respect to the scanner, correction matrices for both landscape oriented and portrait oriented scans were made. In addition to the background correction method, a full dose uncertainty analysis of the film dosimetry procedure was performed. This analysis takes into account the fit uncertainty of the calibration curve, the variation in response for different film sheets, the nonuniformity after background correction, and the noise in the scanned films. The film analysis was performed for film pieces of size 16 x 16 cm, all with the same lot number, and all irradiations were done perpendicular onto the films. The results show that the 2-sigma dose uncertainty at 2 Gy is about 5% and 3.5% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The uncertainty gradually increases as the dose decreases, but at 1 Gy the 2-sigma dose uncertainty is still as good as 6% and 4% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The study shows that film dosimetry using GafChromic EBT film, an Epson Expression 1680 Professional scanner and a dedicated background correction technique gives precise and accurate results. For the purpose of dosimetric verification, the calculated dose distribution

  17. GafChromic EBT film dosimetry with flatbed CCD scanner: A novel background correction method and full dose uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saur, Sigrun; Frengen, Jomar

    2008-01-01

    Film dosimetry using radiochromic EBT film in combination with a flatbed charge coupled device scanner is a useful method both for two-dimensional verification of intensity-modulated radiation treatment plans and for general quality assurance of treatment planning systems and linear accelerators. Unfortunately, the response over the scanner area is nonuniform, and when not corrected for, this results in a systematic error in the measured dose which is both dose and position dependent. In this study a novel method for background correction is presented. The method is based on the subtraction of a correction matrix, a matrix that is based on scans of films that are irradiated to nine dose levels in the range 0.08-2.93 Gy. Because the response of the film is dependent on the film's orientation with respect to the scanner, correction matrices for both landscape oriented and portrait oriented scans were made. In addition to the background correction method, a full dose uncertainty analysis of the film dosimetry procedure was performed. This analysis takes into account the fit uncertainty of the calibration curve, the variation in response for different film sheets, the nonuniformity after background correction, and the noise in the scanned films. The film analysis was performed for film pieces of size 16x16 cm, all with the same lot number, and all irradiations were done perpendicular onto the films. The results show that the 2-sigma dose uncertainty at 2 Gy is about 5% and 3.5% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The uncertainty gradually increases as the dose decreases, but at 1 Gy the 2-sigma dose uncertainty is still as good as 6% and 4% for landscape and portrait scans, respectively. The study shows that film dosimetry using GafChromic EBT film, an Epson Expression 1680 Professional scanner and a dedicated background correction technique gives precise and accurate results. For the purpose of dosimetric verification, the calculated dose distribution can

  18. Uncertainty Reduction Via Parameter Design of A Fast Digital Integrator for Magnetic Field Measurement

    CERN Document Server

    Arpaia, P; Lucariello, G; Spiezia, G

    2007-01-01

    At European Centre of Nuclear Research (CERN), within the new Large Hadron Collider (LHC) project, measurements of magnetic flux with uncertainty of 10 ppm at a few of decades of Hz for several minutes are required. With this aim, a new Fast Digital Integrator (FDI) has been developed in cooperation with University of Sannio, Italy [1]. This paper deals with the final design tuning for achieving target uncertainty by means of experimental statistical parameter design.

  19. SU-F-T-115: Uncertainty in the Esophagus Dose in Retrospective Epidemiological Study of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mosher, E; Kim, S; Lee, C [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD (United States); Lee, C [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Pelletier, C; Jung, J [Department of Physics, East Carolina University Greenville, NC (United States); Jones, E [Radiology and Imaging Sciences Clinical Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Epidemiological studies of second cancer risks in breast cancer radiotherapy patients often use generic patient anatomy to reconstruct normal tissue doses when CT images of patients are not available. To evaluate the uncertainty involved in the dosimetry approach, we evaluated the esophagus dose in five sample patients by simulating breast cancer treatments. Methods: We obtained the diagnostic CT images of five anonymized adult female patients in different Body Mass Index (BMI) categories (16– 36kg/m2) from National Institutes of Health Clinical Center. We contoured the esophagus on the CT images and imported them into a Treatment Planning System (TPS) to create treatment plans and calculate esophagus doses. Esophagus dose was calculated once again via experimentally-validated Monte Carlo (MC) transport code, XVMC under the same geometries. We compared the esophagus doses from TPS and the MC method. We also investigated the degree of variation in the esophagus dose across the five patients and also the relationship between the patient characteristics and the esophagus doses. Results: Eclipse TPS using Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) significantly underestimates the esophagus dose in breast cancer radiotherapy compared to MC. In the worst case, the esophagus dose from AAA was only 40% of the MC dose. The Coefficient of Variation across the patients was 48%. We found that the maximum esophagus dose was up to 2.7 times greater than the minimum. We finally observed linear relationship (Dose = 0.0218 × BMI – 0.1, R2=0.54) between patient’s BMI and the esophagus doses. Conclusion: We quantified the degree of uncertainty in the esophagus dose in five sample breast radiotherapy patients. The results of the study underscore the importance of individualized dose reconstruction for the study cohort to avoid misclassification in the risk analysis of second cancer. We are currently extending the number of patients up to 30.

  20. SU-F-T-115: Uncertainty in the Esophagus Dose in Retrospective Epidemiological Study of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy Patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosher, E; Kim, S; Lee, C; Lee, C; Pelletier, C; Jung, J; Jones, E

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Epidemiological studies of second cancer risks in breast cancer radiotherapy patients often use generic patient anatomy to reconstruct normal tissue doses when CT images of patients are not available. To evaluate the uncertainty involved in the dosimetry approach, we evaluated the esophagus dose in five sample patients by simulating breast cancer treatments. Methods: We obtained the diagnostic CT images of five anonymized adult female patients in different Body Mass Index (BMI) categories (16– 36kg/m2) from National Institutes of Health Clinical Center. We contoured the esophagus on the CT images and imported them into a Treatment Planning System (TPS) to create treatment plans and calculate esophagus doses. Esophagus dose was calculated once again via experimentally-validated Monte Carlo (MC) transport code, XVMC under the same geometries. We compared the esophagus doses from TPS and the MC method. We also investigated the degree of variation in the esophagus dose across the five patients and also the relationship between the patient characteristics and the esophagus doses. Results: Eclipse TPS using Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) significantly underestimates the esophagus dose in breast cancer radiotherapy compared to MC. In the worst case, the esophagus dose from AAA was only 40% of the MC dose. The Coefficient of Variation across the patients was 48%. We found that the maximum esophagus dose was up to 2.7 times greater than the minimum. We finally observed linear relationship (Dose = 0.0218 × BMI – 0.1, R2=0.54) between patient’s BMI and the esophagus doses. Conclusion: We quantified the degree of uncertainty in the esophagus dose in five sample breast radiotherapy patients. The results of the study underscore the importance of individualized dose reconstruction for the study cohort to avoid misclassification in the risk analysis of second cancer. We are currently extending the number of patients up to 30.

  1. Reduced dose uncertainty in MRI-based polymer gel dosimetry using parallel RF transmission with multiple RF sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sang-Young Kim; Jung-Hoon Lee; Jin-Young Jung; Do-Wan Lee; Seu-Ran Lee; Bo-Young Choe; Hyeon-Man Baek; Korea University of Science and Technology, Daejeon; Dae-Hyun Kim; Jung-Whan Min; Ji-Yeon Park

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we present the feasibility of using a parallel RF transmit with multiple RF sources imaging method (MultiTransmit imaging) in polymer gel dosimetry. Image quality and B 1 field homogeneity was statistically better in the MultiTransmit imaging method than in conventional single source RF transmission imaging method. In particular, the standard uncertainty of R 2 was lower on the MultiTransmit images than on the conventional images. Furthermore, the MultiTransmit measurement showed improved dose resolution. Improved image quality and B 1 homogeneity results in reduced dose uncertainty, thereby suggesting the feasibility of MultiTransmit MR imaging in gel dosimetry. (author)

  2. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

  3. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden); Patriksson, Michael [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

    2009-02-15

    Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

  4. Application of RELAP/SCDAPSIM with integrated uncertainty options to research reactor systems thermal hydraulic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, C.M.; Hohorst, J.K.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.

    2010-01-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of the international SCDAP Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with advanced programming and numerical techniques and other SDTP-member modeling/user options. One such member developed option is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). This paper briefly summarizes the features of RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 and the integrated uncertainty analysis package, and then presents an example of how the integrated uncertainty package can be setup and used for a simple pipe flow problem. (author)

  5. Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schwarz

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS radio occultation (RO observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere – such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information – can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP; Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC; and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp. The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs

  6. Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Jakob; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Schwaerz, Marc

    2018-05-01

    Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere - such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information) - can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS) at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP); Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC); and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp). The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs robustly. Together

  7. SU-E-T-324: The Influence of Patient Positioning Uncertainties in Proton Radiotherapy On Proton Range and Dose Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liebl, J [EBG MedAustron GmbH, Wiener Neustadt (Austria); Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Medical University of Graz, Graz (Austria); Paganetti, H; Winey, B [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Proton radiotherapy allows radiation treatment delivery with high dose gradients. The nature of such dose distributions increases the influence of patient positioning uncertainties on their fidelity when compared to photon radiotherapy. The present work quantitatively analyzes the influence of setup uncertainties on proton range and dose distributions. Methods: 38 clinical passive scattering treatment fields for small lesions in the head were studied. Dose distributions for shifted and rotated patient positions were Monte Carlo-simulated. Proton range uncertainties at the 50% and 90%-dose falloff position were calculated considering 18 arbitrary combinations of maximal patient position shifts and rotations for two patient positioning methods. Normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs), equivalent uniform doses (EUDs) and tumor control probabilities (TCPs) were studied for organs at risk (OARs) and target volumes of eight patients. Results: We identified a median 1σ proton range uncertainty at the 50%-dose falloff of 2.8 mm for anatomy-based patient positioning and 1.6 mm for fiducial-based patient positioning as well as 7.2 mm and 5.8 mm for the 90%-dose falloff position respectively. These range uncertainties were correlated to heterogeneity indices (HIs) calculated for each treatment field (38% < R{sup 2} < 50%). A NTCP increase of more than 10% (absolute) was observed for less than 2.9% (anatomy-based positioning) and 1.2% (fiducial-based positioning) of the studied OARs and patient shifts. TCP decreases larger than 10% (absolute) were seen for less than 2.2% of the target volumes or non-existent. EUD changes were up to 178% for OARs and 35% for target volumes. Conclusion: The influence of patient positioning uncertainties on proton range in therapy of small lesions in the human brain and target and OAR dosimetry were studied. Observed range uncertainties were correlated with HIs. The clinical practice of using multiple compensator

  8. Integrated uncertainty analysis using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez, M.; Reventos, F.; Wagner, R.; Allison, C.

    2009-01-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalunya (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). The integrated uncertainty analysis approach used in the package uses the following steps: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. The first four steps are performed by the user prior to the RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 analysis. The remaining steps are included with the MOD4.0 integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package. This paper briefly describes the integrated uncertainty analysis package including (a) the features of the package, (b) the implementation of the package into RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, and

  9. Uncertainties in Assesment of the Vaginal Dose for Intracavitary Brachytherapy of Cervical Cancer using a Tandem-ring Applicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, Daniel; Dimopoulos, Johannes; Georg, Petra; Georg, Dietmar; Poetter, Richard; Kirisits, Christian

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The vagina has not been widely recognized as organ at risk in brachytherapy for cervical cancer. No widely accepted dose parameters are available. This study analyzes the uncertainties in dose reporting for the vaginal wall using tandem-ring applicators. Methods and Materials: Organ wall contours were delineated on axial magnetic resonance (MR) slices to perform dose-volume histogram (DVH) analysis. Different DVH parameters were used in a feasibility study based on 40 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based treatment plans of different cervical cancer patients. Dose to the most irradiated, 0.1 cm 3 , 1 cm 3 , 2 cm 3 , and at defined points on the ring surface and at 5-mm tissue depth were reported. Treatment-planning systems allow different methods of dose point definition. Film dosimetry was used to verify the maximum dose at the surface of the ring applicator in an experimental setup. Results: Dose reporting for the vagina is extremely sensitive to geometrical uncertainties with variations of 25% for 1 mm shifts. Accurate delineation of the vaginal wall is limited by the finite pixel size of MRI and available treatment-planning systems. No significant correlation was found between dose-point and dose-volume parameters. The DVH parameters were often related to noncontiguous volumes and were not able to detect very different situations of spatial dose distributions inside the vaginal wall. Deviations between measured and calculated doses were up to 21%. Conclusions: Reporting either point dose values or DVH parameters for the vaginal wall is based on high inaccuracies because of contouring and geometric positioning. Therefore, the use of prospective dose constraints for individual treatment plans is not to be recommended at present. However, for large patient groups treated within one protocol correlation with vaginal morbidity can be evaluated

  10. Integration of models for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The objective of phase 1 of the project was to demonstrate through calculations that adequate models and support data exist or could be developed to allow realistic estimations of doses to individuals from releases of radionuclides to the environment that occurred as long as 45 years ago. Much of the data used in phase 1 was preliminary; therefore, the doses calculated must be considered preliminary approximations. This paper describes the integration of various models that was implemented for initial computer calculations. Models were required for estimating the quantity of radioactive material released, for evaluating its transport through the environment, for estimating human exposure, and for evaluating resultant doses

  11. MODARIA WG5: Towards a practical guidance for including uncertainties in the results of dose assessment of routine releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mora, Juan C. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas - CIEMAT (Spain); Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA (Austria); Al Neaimi, Ahmed [Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation - ENEC (United Arab Emirates); Blixt Buhr, Anna Ma [Vattenfall AB (Sweden); Bonchuk, Iurii [Radiation Protection Institute - RPI (Ukraine); Chouhan, Sohan [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited - AECL (Canada); Chyly, Pavol [SE-VYZ (Slovakia); Curti, Adriana R. [Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear - ARN (Argentina); Da Costa, Dejanira [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria - IRD (Brazil); Duran, Juraj [VUJE Inc (Slovakia); Galeriu, Dan [Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering - IFIN-HH (Romania); Haegg, Ann- Christin; Lager, Charlotte [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority - SSM (Sweden); Heling, Rudie [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group - NRG (Netherlands); Ivanis, Goran; Shen, Jige [Ecometrix Incorporated (Canada); Iosjpe, Mikhail [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority - NRPA (Norway); Krajewski, Pawel M. [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection - CLOR (Poland); Marang, Laura; Vermorel, Fabien [Electricite de France - EdF (France); Mourlon, Christophe [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire - IRSN (France); Perez, Fabricio F. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre - SCK (Belgium); Woodruffe, Andrew [Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation - FANR (United Arab Emirates); Zorko, Benjamin [Jozef Stefan Institute (Slovenia)

    2014-07-01

    MODARIA (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) project was launched in 2012 with the aim of improving the capabilities in radiation dose assessment by means of acquisition of improved data for model testing, model testing and comparison, reaching consensus on modelling philosophies, approaches and parameter values, development of improved methods and exchange of information. The project focuses on areas where uncertainties remain in the predictive capability of environmental models, emphasizing in reducing associated uncertainties or developing new approaches to strengthen the evaluation of the radiological impact. Within MODARIA, four main areas were defined, one of them devoted to Uncertainty and Variability. In this area four working groups were included, Working Group 5 dealing with the 'uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides'. Whether doses are estimated by using measurement data, by applying models, or through a combination of measurements and calculations, the variability and uncertainty contribute to a distribution of possible values. The degree of variability and uncertainty is represented by the shape and extent of that distribution. The main objective of WG5 is to explore how to consider uncertainties and variabilities in the results of assessment of doses in planned situations for controlling the impact of routine releases from radioactive and nuclear installations to the environment. The final aim is to produce guidance for the calculation of uncertainties in these exposure situations and for the presentation of such results to the different stakeholders. To achieve that objective the main tasks identified were: to find tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments in routine radioactive discharges, to define scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability of parameters is available

  12. Biological dosimetry - a Bayesian approach in the presentation of the uncertainty of the estimated dose in cases of exposure to low dose radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Giorgio, Marina; Zaretzky, A.

    2010-01-01

    Biodosimetry laboratory experience has shown that there are limitations in the existing statistical methodology. Statistical difficulties generally occur due to the low number of aberrations leading to large uncertainties for dose estimation. Some problems derived from limitations of the classical statistical methodology, which requires that chromosome aberration yields be considered as something fixed and consequently provides a deterministic dose estimation and associated confidence limits. On the other hand, recipients of biological dosimetry reports, including medical doctors, regulators and the patients themselves may have a limited comprehension of statistics and of informed reports. Thus, the objective of the present paper is to use a Bayesian approach to present the uncertainty on the estimated dose to which a person could be exposed, in the case of low dose (occupational doses) radiation exposure. Such methodology will allow the biodosimetrists to adopt a probabilistic approach for the cytogenetic data analysis. At present, classical statistics allows to produce a confidence interval to report such dose, with a lower limit that could not detach from zero. In this situation it becomes difficult to make decisions as they could impact on the labor activities of the worker if an exposure exceeding the occupational dose limits is inferred. The proposed Bayesian approach is applied to occupational exposure scenario to contribute to take the appropriate radiation protection measures. (authors) [es

  13. Influence of resonance parameters' correlations on the resonance integral uncertainty; 55Mn case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerovnik, Gasper; Trkov, Andrej; Capote, Roberto; Rochman, Dimitri

    2011-01-01

    For nuclides with a large number of resonances the covariance matrix of resonance parameters can become very large and expensive to process in terms of the computation time. By converting covariance matrix of resonance parameters into covariance matrices of background cross-section in a more or less coarse group structure a considerable amount of computer time and memory can be saved. The question is how important is the information that is discarded in the process. First, the uncertainty of the 55 Mn resonance integral was estimated in narrow resonance approximation for different levels of self-shielding using Bondarenko method by random sampling of resonance parameters according to their covariance matrices from two different 55 Mn evaluations: one from Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG (with large uncertainties but no correlations between resonances), the other from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (with smaller uncertainties but full covariance matrix). We have found out that if all (or at least significant part of the) resonance parameters are correlated, the resonance integral uncertainty greatly depends on the level of self-shielding. Second, it was shown that the commonly used 640-group SAND-II representation cannot describe the increase of the resonance integral uncertainty. A much finer energy mesh for the background covariance matrix would have to be used to take the resonance structure into account explicitly, but then the objective of a more compact data representation is lost.

  14. Uncertainty assessment of integrated distributed hydrological models using GLUE with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2008-01-01

    uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied in order to improve the performance of the methodology in estimating parameters and posterior output distributions. The description of the spatial variations of the hydrological processes is accounted for by defining......In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of distributed, physically-based and integrated hydrological models. Many questions regarding how to properly calibrate and validate distributed models and assess the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and the spatially......-site validation must complement the usual time validation. In this study, we develop, through an application, a comprehensive framework for multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty assessment of distributed physically-based, integrated hydrological models. A revised version of the generalized likelihood...

  15. Practical low dose limits for passive personal dosemeters and the implications for uncertainties close to the limit of detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilvin, P. J.; Perks, C. A.

    2011-01-01

    Recent years have seen the increasing use of passive dosemeters that have high sensitivities and, in laboratory conditions, detection limits of <10 μSv. However, in real operational use the detection limits will be markedly higher, because a large fraction of the accrued dose will be due to natural background, and this must be subtracted in order to obtain the desired occupational dose. No matter how well known the natural background is, the measurement uncertainty on doses of a few tens of microsieverts will be large. Individual monitoring services need to recognise this and manage the expectations of their clients by providing sufficient information. (authors)

  16. Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

  17. Estimated of associated uncertainties of the linearity test of dose calibrators; Estimativa das incertezas associadas ao teste de linearidade de calibradores de dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sousa, Carlos H.S.; Peixoto, Jose G.P., E-mail: chenrique@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), RIo de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Activimeters determine the activity of radioactive samples and them are validated by performance tests. This research determined the expanded uncertainties associated to the linearity test. Were used three dose calibrators and three sources of {sup 99}Tc{sup m} for testing using recommended protocol by the IAEA, which considered the decay of radioactive samples. The expanded uncertainties evaluated were not correlated with each other and their analysis considered a rectangular probability distribution. The results are also presented in graphical form by the function of normalized activity measured in terms of conventional true value. (author)

  18. Improved Genetic Algorithm-Based Unit Commitment Considering Uncertainty Integration Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyu-Hyung Jo

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In light of the dissemination of renewable energy connected to the power grid, it has become necessary to consider the uncertainty in the generation of renewable energy as a unit commitment (UC problem. A methodology for solving the UC problem is presented by considering various uncertainties, which are assumed to have a normal distribution, by using a Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the constructed scenarios for load, wind, solar, and generator outages, a combination of scenarios is found that meets the reserve requirement to secure the power balance of the power grid. In those scenarios, the uncertainty integration method (UIM identifies the best combination by minimizing the additional reserve requirements caused by the uncertainty of power sources. An integration process for uncertainties is formulated for stochastic unit commitment (SUC problems and optimized by the improved genetic algorithm (IGA. The IGA is composed of five procedures and finds the optimal combination of unit status at the scheduled time, based on the determined source data. According to the number of unit systems, the IGA demonstrates better performance than the other optimization methods by applying reserve repairing and an approximation process. To account for the result of the proposed method, various UC strategies are tested with a modified 24-h UC test system and compared.

  19. The neural substrate and functional integration of uncertainty in decision making: an information theory approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goñi, Joaquín; Aznárez-Sanado, Maite; Arrondo, Gonzalo; Fernández-Seara, María; Loayza, Francis R; Heukamp, Franz H; Pastor, María A

    2011-03-09

    Decision making can be regarded as the outcome of cognitive processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Borrowing a central measurement from information theory, Shannon entropy, we quantified the uncertainties produced by decisions of participants within an economic decision task under different configurations of reward probability and time. These descriptors were used to obtain blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal correlates of uncertainty and two clusters codifying the Shannon entropy of task configurations were identified: a large cluster including parts of the right middle cingulate cortex (MCC) and left and right pre-supplementary motor areas (pre-SMA) and a small cluster at the left anterior thalamus. Subsequent functional connectivity analyses using the psycho-physiological interactions model identified areas involved in the functional integration of uncertainty. Results indicate that clusters mostly located at frontal and temporal cortices experienced an increased connectivity with the right MCC and left and right pre-SMA as the uncertainty was higher. Furthermore, pre-SMA was also functionally connected to a rich set of areas, most of them associative areas located at occipital and parietal lobes. This study provides a map of the human brain segregation and integration (i.e., neural substrate and functional connectivity respectively) of the uncertainty associated to an economic decision making paradigm.

  20. The neural substrate and functional integration of uncertainty in decision making: an information theory approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Goñi

    Full Text Available Decision making can be regarded as the outcome of cognitive processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Borrowing a central measurement from information theory, Shannon entropy, we quantified the uncertainties produced by decisions of participants within an economic decision task under different configurations of reward probability and time. These descriptors were used to obtain blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD signal correlates of uncertainty and two clusters codifying the Shannon entropy of task configurations were identified: a large cluster including parts of the right middle cingulate cortex (MCC and left and right pre-supplementary motor areas (pre-SMA and a small cluster at the left anterior thalamus. Subsequent functional connectivity analyses using the psycho-physiological interactions model identified areas involved in the functional integration of uncertainty. Results indicate that clusters mostly located at frontal and temporal cortices experienced an increased connectivity with the right MCC and left and right pre-SMA as the uncertainty was higher. Furthermore, pre-SMA was also functionally connected to a rich set of areas, most of them associative areas located at occipital and parietal lobes. This study provides a map of the human brain segregation and integration (i.e., neural substrate and functional connectivity respectively of the uncertainty associated to an economic decision making paradigm.

  1. Propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in an integral oil-gas plume model

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Shitao

    2016-05-27

    Polynomial Chaos expansions are used to analyze uncertainties in an integral oil-gas plume model simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The study focuses on six uncertain input parameters—two entrainment parameters, the gas to oil ratio, two parameters associated with the droplet-size distribution, and the flow rate—that impact the model\\'s estimates of the plume\\'s trap and peel heights, and of its various gas fluxes. The ranges of the uncertain inputs were determined by experimental data. Ensemble calculations were performed to construct polynomial chaos-based surrogates that describe the variations in the outputs due to variations in the uncertain inputs. The surrogates were then used to estimate reliably the statistics of the model outputs, and to perform an analysis of variance. Two experiments were performed to study the impacts of high and low flow rate uncertainties. The analysis shows that in the former case the flow rate is the largest contributor to output uncertainties, whereas in the latter case, with the uncertainty range constrained by aposteriori analyses, the flow rate\\'s contribution becomes negligible. The trap and peel heights uncertainties are then mainly due to uncertainties in the 95% percentile of the droplet size and in the entrainment parameters.

  2. Propagation of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in an integral oil-gas plume model

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Shitao; Iskandarani, Mohamed; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Thacker, W. Carlisle; Winokur, Justin; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    Polynomial Chaos expansions are used to analyze uncertainties in an integral oil-gas plume model simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The study focuses on six uncertain input parameters—two entrainment parameters, the gas to oil ratio, two parameters associated with the droplet-size distribution, and the flow rate—that impact the model's estimates of the plume's trap and peel heights, and of its various gas fluxes. The ranges of the uncertain inputs were determined by experimental data. Ensemble calculations were performed to construct polynomial chaos-based surrogates that describe the variations in the outputs due to variations in the uncertain inputs. The surrogates were then used to estimate reliably the statistics of the model outputs, and to perform an analysis of variance. Two experiments were performed to study the impacts of high and low flow rate uncertainties. The analysis shows that in the former case the flow rate is the largest contributor to output uncertainties, whereas in the latter case, with the uncertainty range constrained by aposteriori analyses, the flow rate's contribution becomes negligible. The trap and peel heights uncertainties are then mainly due to uncertainties in the 95% percentile of the droplet size and in the entrainment parameters.

  3. Propagation of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in Integral Measurements by Monte-Carlo Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noguere, G.; Bernard, D.; De Saint-Jean, C. [CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France)

    2006-07-01

    Full text of the publication follows: The generation of Multi-group cross sections together with relevant uncertainties is fundamental to assess the quality of integral data. The key information that are needed to propagate the microscopic experimental uncertainties to macroscopic reactor calculations are (1) the experimental covariance matrices, (2) the correlations between the parameters of the model and (3) the covariance matrices for the multi-group cross sections. The propagation of microscopic errors by Monte-Carlo technique was applied to determine the accuracy of the integral trends provided by the OSMOSE experiment carried out in the MINERVE reactor of the CEA Cadarache. The technique consists in coupling resonance shape analysis and deterministic codes. The integral trend and its accuracy obtained on the {sup 237}Np(n,{gamma}) reaction will be presented. (author)

  4. Geostatistical integration and uncertainty in pollutant concentration surface under preferential sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Grisotto

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the focus is on environmental statistics, with the aim of estimating the concentration surface and related uncertainty of an air pollutant. We used air quality data recorded by a network of monitoring stations within a Bayesian framework to overcome difficulties in accounting for prediction uncertainty and to integrate information provided by deterministic models based on emissions meteorology and chemico-physical characteristics of the atmosphere. Several authors have proposed such integration, but all the proposed approaches rely on representativeness and completeness of existing air pollution monitoring networks. We considered the situation in which the spatial process of interest and the sampling locations are not independent. This is known in the literature as the preferential sampling problem, which if ignored in the analysis, can bias geostatistical inferences. We developed a Bayesian geostatistical model to account for preferential sampling with the main interest in statistical integration and uncertainty. We used PM10 data arising from the air quality network of the Environmental Protection Agency of Lombardy Region (Italy and numerical outputs from the deterministic model. We specified an inhomogeneous Poisson process for the sampling locations intensities and a shared spatial random component model for the dependence between the spatial location of monitors and the pollution surface. We found greater predicted standard deviation differences in areas not properly covered by the air quality network. In conclusion, in this context inferences on prediction uncertainty may be misleading when geostatistical modelling does not take into account preferential sampling.

  5. Uncertainties in individual doses in a case-control study of thyroid cancer after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drozdovitch, V.; Maceika, E.; Khrouch, V.; Zvonova, I.; Vlasov, O.; Bouville, A.; Cardis, E.

    2007-01-01

    Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and un-shared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) un-shared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7. (authors)

  6. Review of Polynomial Chaos-Based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Modern Integrated Circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kaintura

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Advances in manufacturing process technology are key ensembles for the production of integrated circuits in the sub-micrometer region. It is of paramount importance to assess the effects of tolerances in the manufacturing process on the performance of modern integrated circuits. The polynomial chaos expansion has emerged as a suitable alternative to standard Monte Carlo-based methods that are accurate, but computationally cumbersome. This paper provides an overview of the most recent developments and challenges in the application of polynomial chaos-based techniques for uncertainty quantification in integrated circuits, with particular focus on high-dimensional problems.

  7. SU-E-J-116: Uncertainties Associated with Dose Summation of High-Dose Rate Brachytherapy and Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy for Gynecological Cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kauweloa, K; Bergamo, A; Gutierrez, A; Stathakis, S; Papanikolaou, N; Kirby, N [University of Texas HSC SA, San Antonio, TX (United States); Cancer Therapy and Research Center, San Antonio, TX (United States); Mavroidis, P [University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Determining the cumulative dose distribution (CDD) for gynecological patients treated with both high-dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is challenging. The purpose of this work is to study the uncertainty of performing this with a structure-guided deformable (SGD) approach in Velocity. Methods: For SGD, the Hounsfield units inside specified contours are overridden to set uniform values. Deformable image registration (DIR) is the run on these process images, which forces the DIR to focus on these contour boundaries. 18 gynecological cancer patients were used in this study. The original bladder and rectum planning contours for these patients were used to drive the SGD. A second set of contours were made of the bladder by the same person with the intent of carefully making them completely consistent with each other. This second set was utilized to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the SGD. The determined spatial accuracy was then multiplied by the local dose gradient to determine a dose uncertainty associated with the SGD dose warping. The normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) was then calculated for each dose volume histogram (DVH) that included four different probabilistic uncertainties associated with the spatial errors (e.g., 68.3% and 95.4%). Results: The NTCPs for each DVH (e.g., NTCP-−95.4%, NTCP-−68.3%, NTCP-68.3%, NTCP-95.4%) differed amongst patients. All patients had an NTCP-−95.4% close to 0%, while NTCP-95.4% ranged from 0.67% to 100%. Nine patients had an NTCP-−95.4% less than 50% while the remaining nine patients had NTCP-95.4% greater than 50%. Conclusion: The uncertainty associated with this CDD technique renders a large NTCP uncertainty. Thus, it is currently not practical for clinical use. The two ways to improve this would be to use more precise contours to drive the SGD and to use a more accurate DIR algorithm.

  8. A probabilistic approach to quantify the uncertainties in internal dose assessment using response surface and neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baek, M.; Lee, S.K.; Lee, U.C.; Kang, C.S.

    1996-01-01

    A probabilistic approach is formulated to assess the internal radiation exposure following the intake of radioisotopes. This probabilistic approach consists of 4 steps as follows: (1) screening, (2) quantification of uncertainties, (3) propagation of uncertainties, and (4) analysis of output. The approach has been applied for Pu-induced internal dose assessment and a multi-compartment dosimetric model is used for internal transport. In this approach, surrogate models of original system are constructed using response and neural network. And the results of these surrogate models are compared with those of original model. Each surrogate model well approximates the original model. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters are evaluated in this process. Dominant contributors to each organ are identified and the results show that this approach could serve a good tool of assessing the internal radiation exposure

  9. Toward adaptive radiotherapy for head and neck patients: Uncertainties in dose warping due to the choice of deformable registration algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veiga, Catarina, E-mail: catarina.veiga.11@ucl.ac.uk; Royle, Gary [Radiation Physics Group, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Lourenço, Ana Mónica [Radiation Physics Group, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom and Acoustics and Ionizing Radiation Team, National Physical Laboratory, Teddington TW11 0LW (United Kingdom); Mouinuddin, Syed [Department of Radiotherapy, University College London Hospital, London NW1 2BU (United Kingdom); Herk, Marcel van [Department of Radiation Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam 1066 CX (Netherlands); Modat, Marc; Ourselin, Sébastien; McClelland, Jamie R. [Centre for Medical Image Computing, Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

    2015-02-15

    Purpose: The aims of this work were to evaluate the performance of several deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms implemented in our in-house software (NiftyReg) and the uncertainties inherent to using different algorithms for dose warping. Methods: The authors describe a DIR based adaptive radiotherapy workflow, using CT and cone-beam CT (CBCT) imaging. The transformations that mapped the anatomy between the two time points were obtained using four different DIR approaches available in NiftyReg. These included a standard unidirectional algorithm and more sophisticated bidirectional ones that encourage or ensure inverse consistency. The forward (CT-to-CBCT) deformation vector fields (DVFs) were used to propagate the CT Hounsfield units and structures to the daily geometry for “dose of the day” calculations, while the backward (CBCT-to-CT) DVFs were used to remap the dose of the day onto the planning CT (pCT). Data from five head and neck patients were used to evaluate the performance of each implementation based on geometrical matching, physical properties of the DVFs, and similarity between warped dose distributions. Geometrical matching was verified in terms of dice similarity coefficient (DSC), distance transform, false positives, and false negatives. The physical properties of the DVFs were assessed calculating the harmonic energy, determinant of the Jacobian, and inverse consistency error of the transformations. Dose distributions were displayed on the pCT dose space and compared using dose difference (DD), distance to dose difference, and dose volume histograms. Results: All the DIR algorithms gave similar results in terms of geometrical matching, with an average DSC of 0.85 ± 0.08, but the underlying properties of the DVFs varied in terms of smoothness and inverse consistency. When comparing the doses warped by different algorithms, we found a root mean square DD of 1.9% ± 0.8% of the prescribed dose (pD) and that an average of 9% ± 4% of

  10. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for age-dependent unavailability model integrating test and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kančev, Duško; Čepin, Marko

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Application of analytical unavailability model integrating T and M, ageing, and test strategy. ► Ageing data uncertainty propagation on system level assessed via Monte Carlo simulation. ► Uncertainty impact is growing with the extension of the surveillance test interval. ► Calculated system unavailability dependence on two different sensitivity study ageing databases. ► System unavailability sensitivity insights regarding specific groups of BEs as test intervals extend. - Abstract: The interest in operational lifetime extension of the existing nuclear power plants is growing. Consequently, plants life management programs, considering safety components ageing, are being developed and employed. Ageing represents a gradual degradation of the physical properties and functional performance of different components consequently implying their reduced availability. Analyses, which are being made in the direction of nuclear power plants lifetime extension are based upon components ageing management programs. On the other side, the large uncertainties of the ageing parameters as well as the uncertainties associated with most of the reliability data collections are widely acknowledged. This paper addresses the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted utilizing a previously developed age-dependent unavailability model, integrating effects of test and maintenance activities, for a selected stand-by safety system in a nuclear power plant. The most important problem is the lack of data concerning the effects of ageing as well as the relatively high uncertainty associated to these data, which would correspond to more detailed modelling of ageing. A standard Monte Carlo simulation was coded for the purpose of this paper and utilized in the process of assessment of the component ageing parameters uncertainty propagation on system level. The obtained results from the uncertainty analysis indicate the extent to which the uncertainty of the selected

  11. Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

    1999-01-01

    This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases

  12. Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer D, Philip; Gee W, Glendon

    2000-01-01

    This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases

  13. Advanced Approach to Consider Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties for Integral Accident Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peschke, Joerg; Kloos, Martina

    2013-01-01

    The use of best-estimate codes together with realistic input data generally requires that all potentially important epistemic uncertainties which may affect the code prediction are considered in order to get an adequate quantification of the epistemic uncertainty of the prediction as an expression of the existing imprecise knowledge. To facilitate the performance of the required epistemic uncertainty analyses, methods and corresponding software tools are available like, for instance, the GRS-tool SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis). However, for risk-informed decision-making, the restriction on epistemic uncertainties alone is not enough. Transients and accident scenarios are also affected by aleatory uncertainties which are due to the unpredictable nature of phenomena. It is essential that aleatory uncertainties are taken into account as well, not only in a simplified and supposedly conservative way but as realistic as possible. The additional consideration of aleatory uncertainties, for instance, on the behavior of the technical system, the performance of plant operators, or on the behavior of the physical process provides a quantification of probabilistically significant accident sequences. Only if a safety analysis is able to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a realistic manner, it can provide a well-founded risk-informed answer for decision-making. At GRS, an advanced probabilistic dynamics method was developed to address this problem and to provide a more realistic modeling and assessment of transients and accident scenarios. This method allows for an integral simulation of complex dynamic processes particularly taking into account interactions between the plant dynamics as simulated by a best-estimate code, the dynamics of operator actions and the influence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the GRS method MCDET (Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree) for probabilistic dynamics analysis is explained

  14. Tolerance of uncertainty: Conceptual analysis, integrative model, and implications for healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillen, Marij A; Gutheil, Caitlin M; Strout, Tania D; Smets, Ellen M A; Han, Paul K J

    2017-05-01

    Uncertainty tolerance (UT) is an important, well-studied phenomenon in health care and many other important domains of life, yet its conceptualization and measurement by researchers in various disciplines have varied substantially and its essential nature remains unclear. The objectives of this study were to: 1) analyze the meaning and logical coherence of UT as conceptualized by developers of UT measures, and 2) develop an integrative conceptual model to guide future empirical research regarding the nature, causes, and effects of UT. A narrative review and conceptual analysis of 18 existing measures of Uncertainty and Ambiguity Tolerance was conducted, focusing on how measure developers in various fields have defined both the "uncertainty" and "tolerance" components of UT-both explicitly through their writings and implicitly through the items constituting their measures. Both explicit and implicit conceptual definitions of uncertainty and tolerance vary substantially and are often poorly and inconsistently specified. A logically coherent, unified understanding or theoretical model of UT is lacking. To address these gaps, we propose a new integrative definition and multidimensional conceptual model that construes UT as the set of negative and positive psychological responses-cognitive, emotional, and behavioral-provoked by the conscious awareness of ignorance about particular aspects of the world. This model synthesizes insights from various disciplines and provides an organizing framework for future research. We discuss how this model can facilitate further empirical and theoretical research to better measure and understand the nature, determinants, and outcomes of UT in health care and other domains of life. Uncertainty tolerance is an important and complex phenomenon requiring more precise and consistent definition. An integrative definition and conceptual model, intended as a tentative and flexible point of departure for future research, adds needed breadth

  15. Methods of assessing total doses integrated across pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grzechnik, M.; Camplin, W.; Clyne, F.; Allott, R.; Webbe-Wood, D.

    2006-01-01

    Calculated doses for comparison with limits resulting from discharges into the environment should be summed across all relevant pathways and food groups to ensure adequate protection. Current methodology for assessments used in the radioactivity in Food and the Environment (R.I.F.E.) reports separate doses from pathways related to liquid discharges of radioactivity to the environment from those due to gaseous releases. Surveys of local inhabitant food consumption and occupancy rates are conducted in the vicinity of nuclear sites. Information has been recorded in an integrated way, such that the data for each individual is recorded for all pathways of interest. These can include consumption of foods, such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs, fruit and vegetables, milk and meats. Occupancy times over beach sediments and time spent in close proximity to the site is also recorded for inclusion of external and inhalation radiation dose pathways. The integrated habits survey data may be combined with monitored environmental radionuclide concentrations to calculate total dose. The criteria for successful adoption of a method for this calculation were: Reproducibility can others easily use the approach and reassess doses? Rigour and realism how good is the match with reality?Transparency a measure of the ease with which others can understand how the calculations are performed and what they mean. Homogeneity is the group receiving the dose relatively homogeneous with respect to age, diet and those aspects that affect the dose received? Five methods of total dose calculation were compared and ranked according to their suitability. Each method was labelled (A to E) and given a short, relevant name for identification. The methods are described below; A) Individual doses to individuals are calculated and critical group selection is dependent on dose received. B) Individual Plus As in A, but consumption and occupancy rates for high dose is used to derive rates for application in

  16. Impact of the spinal cord position uncertainty on the dose received during head and neck helical tomotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piotrowski, Tomasz; Kazmierska, Joanna; Sokolowski, Adam; Skorska, Malgorzata; Jodda, Agata; Ryczkowski, Adam; Cholewinski, Witold; Bak, Bartosz

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to establish the optimal planning risk volume (PRV) to the spinal cord (SC) for oropharyngeal cancer patients during adaptive radiation therapy with concurrent chemotherapy. Geometrical uncertainties of the SC were evaluated. Differences between planned and delivered maximum doses to each part of the SC were established for every fraction dose and for cumulative dose. Maximum doses were evaluated as a dose received in 0.5 and 1cm3 of the analysed part of the SC defined as C1–C2, C3–C4, C5–C6 and C7–Th1 where Cn was a n-th cervical vertebra (n=1, … , 7) and Th1 was the first thoracic vertebra. Finally, relations between dose differences and geometrical uncertainties were analysed using a relative risk (RR) and the importance of the PRV dose gradient to establish an optimal PRV for the SC. Prospective study based on the 875 observations from 25 oropharyngeal cancer patients was performed. The C1-C2 part of the SC is most exposed to risk of overdosage during chemoradiation for patients with oropharyngeal cancer due to its proximity to the clinical target volume (CTV). Doses received by other parts of the SC are smaller, with the lowest dose delivered to C7–Th1. For the C1–C2, delivered dose was higher than planned dose by 11%, while for the C7–Th1, this difference was smaller than 7%. The lowest movement of individual parts of the SC were detected for the C1–C2 and the highest for the C7–Th1. The standard deviations of the mean shift ranged respectively from 0.9 to 1.4mm and from 1.3 to 2.9mm. For each part of the SC delivered dose was smaller than planned dose to the PRV (RR<1). Our study showed that for chemoradiation of oropharyngeal cancer, using daily image guidance and proper plan adaptation scheme, the current PRV margin for the SC could be reduced to 4mm.

  17. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Accuracy, reproducibility, and uncertainty analysis of thyroid-probe-based activity measurements for determination of dose calibrator settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esquinas, Pedro L; Tanguay, Jesse; Gonzalez, Marjorie; Vuckovic, Milan; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Cristina; Häfeli, Urs O; Celler, Anna

    2016-12-01

    In the nuclear medicine department, the activity of radiopharmaceuticals is measured using dose calibrators (DCs) prior to patient injection. The DC consists of an ionization chamber that measures current generated by ionizing radiation (emitted from the radiotracer). In order to obtain an activity reading, the current is converted into units of activity by applying an appropriate calibration factor (also referred to as DC dial setting). Accurate determination of DC dial settings is crucial to ensure that patients receive the appropriate dose in diagnostic scans or radionuclide therapies. The goals of this study were (1) to describe a practical method to experimentally determine dose calibrator settings using a thyroid-probe (TP) and (2) to investigate the accuracy, reproducibility, and uncertainties of the method. As an illustration, the TP method was applied to determine 188 Re dial settings for two dose calibrator models: Atomlab 100plus and Capintec CRC-55tR. Using the TP to determine dose calibrator settings involved three measurements. First, the energy-dependent efficiency of the TP was determined from energy spectra measurements of two calibration sources ( 152 Eu and 22 Na). Second, the gamma emissions from the investigated isotope ( 188 Re) were measured using the TP and its activity was determined using γ-ray spectroscopy methods. Ambient background, scatter, and source-geometry corrections were applied during the efficiency and activity determination steps. Third, the TP-based 188 Re activity was used to determine the dose calibrator settings following the calibration curve method [B. E. Zimmerman et al., J. Nucl. Med. 40, 1508-1516 (1999)]. The interobserver reproducibility of TP measurements was determined by the coefficient of variation (COV) and uncertainties associated to each step of the measuring process were estimated. The accuracy of activity measurements using the proposed method was evaluated by comparing the TP activity estimates of 99m Tc

  19. Collaborative Knowledge Building and Integral Theory: On Perspectives, Uncertainty, and Mutual Regard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Murray

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in knowing and communicating affect all aspects of modern life. Ubiquitous and inevitable uncertainty, including ambiguity and paradox, is particularly salient and important in knowledge building communities. Because knowledge building communities represent and evolve knowledge explicitly, the causes, effects, and approaches to this “epistemological indeterminacy” can be directly addressed in knowledge building practices. Integral theory’s approach (including “methodological pluralism” involves accepting and integrating diverse perspectives in ways that transcend and include them. This approach accentuates the problems of epistemological indeterminacy and highlights the general need to deal creatively with it. This article begins with a cursory analysis of textual dialogs among integral theorists, showing that, while integral theory itself points to leading-edge ways of dealing with epistemological indeterminacy, the knowledge building practices of integral theorists, by and large, exhibit the same limitations as traditional intellectual discourses. Yet, due to its values and core methods, the integral theory community is in a unique position to develop novel and more adequate modes of inquiry and dialog. This text explores how epistemological indeterminacy impacts the activities and products of groups engaged in collaborative knowledge building. Approaching the issue from three perspectives–mutual understanding, mutual agreement, and mutual regard—I show the interdependence of those perspectives and ground them in relation to integral theory’s concerns. This article proposes three phases of developing constructive alternatives drawn from the knowledge building field: awareness of the phenomena, understanding the phenomena, and offering some tools (and some hope for dealing with it. Though here I focus on the integral theory community (or communities, the conclusions of the article are meant to be applicable to any

  20. Collaborative Knowledge Building and Integral Theory:On Perspectives,Uncertainty, and Mutual Regard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Murray

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in knowing and communicating affect all aspects of modern life. Ubiquitous and inevitable uncertainty, including ambiguity and paradox, is particularly salient and important in knowledge building communities. Because knowledge building communities represent and evolve knowledge explicitly, the causes, effects, and approaches to this “epistemological indeterminacy” can be directly addressed in knowledge building practices. Integral theory's approach (including “methodological pluralism” involves accepting and integrating diverse perspectives in ways that transcend and include them. This approach accentuates the problems of epistemological indeterminacy and highlights the general need to deal creatively with it. This article begins with a cursory analysis of textual dialogs among integral theorists, showing that, while integral theory itself points to leading-edge ways of dealing with epistemological indeterminacy, the knowledge building practices of integral theorists, by and large, exhibit the same limitations as traditional intellectual discourses. Yet, due to its values and core methods, the integral theory community is in a unique position to develop novel and more adequate modes of inquiry and dialog. This text explores how epistemological indeterminacy impacts the activities and products of groups engaged in collaborative knowledge building. Approaching the issue from three perspectives—mutual understanding, mutual agreement, and mutual regard—I show the interdependence of those perspectives and ground them in relation to integral theory’s concerns. This article proposes three phases of developing constructive alternatives drawn from the knowledge building field: awareness of the phenomena, understanding the phenomena, and offering some tools (and some hope for dealing with it. Though here I focus on the integral theory community (or communities, the conclusions of the article are meant to be applicable to any

  1. Method for estimating effects of unknown correlations in spectral irradiance data on uncertainties of spectrally integrated colorimetric quantities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärhä, Petri; Vaskuri, Anna; Mäntynen, Henrik; Mikkonen, Nikke; Ikonen, Erkki

    2017-08-01

    Spectral irradiance data are often used to calculate colorimetric properties, such as color coordinates and color temperatures of light sources by integration. The spectral data may contain unknown correlations that should be accounted for in the uncertainty estimation. We propose a new method for estimating uncertainties in such cases. The method goes through all possible scenarios of deviations using Monte Carlo analysis. Varying spectral error functions are produced by combining spectral base functions, and the distorted spectra are used to calculate the colorimetric quantities. Standard deviations of the colorimetric quantities at different scenarios give uncertainties assuming no correlations, uncertainties assuming full correlation, and uncertainties for an unfavorable case of unknown correlations, which turn out to be a significant source of uncertainty. With 1% standard uncertainty in spectral irradiance, the expanded uncertainty of the correlated color temperature of a source corresponding to the CIE Standard Illuminant A may reach as high as 37.2 K in unfavorable conditions, when calculations assuming full correlation give zero uncertainty, and calculations assuming no correlations yield the expanded uncertainties of 5.6 K and 12.1 K, with wavelength steps of 1 nm and 5 nm used in spectral integrations, respectively. We also show that there is an absolute limit of 60.2 K in the error of the correlated color temperature for Standard Illuminant A when assuming 1% standard uncertainty in the spectral irradiance. A comparison of our uncorrelated uncertainties with those obtained using analytical methods by other research groups shows good agreement. We re-estimated the uncertainties for the colorimetric properties of our 1 kW photometric standard lamps using the new method. The revised uncertainty of color temperature is a factor of 2.5 higher than the uncertainty assuming no correlations.

  2. Uncertainties in low γ-dose determinations by means of ESR using the biomaterial modern coral reef

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Gamal M.; Sharaf, M.A.

    2006-01-01

    The ESR spectrum of unirradiated modern aragonite coral (CaCO 3 ) material from the Red Sea (Hurgada area) is characterized by four signals with spectroscopic splitting factors of g=2.0056, 2.0030, 2.0006 and 1.997. The most intensive and stable line in this spectrum is attributed to CO 2 - radicals at g=2.0006+/-0.0005. The dose response from 50mGy to 20Gy, energy dependence and effective atomic number are calculated so as to investigate coral as a dosimeter material in the clinical dose range. The lower experimental γ-dose limit was found to be 50mGy with signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio of 15. The combined and expanded uncertainties accompanying these measurements are 1.72% and 3.44%, respectively

  3. Uncertainties in low {gamma}-dose determinations by means of ESR using the biomaterial modern coral reef

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassan, Gamal M. [Department of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, National Institute for Standards (NIS), Tersa Street El-Haram El-Giza, P.O. Box 136 Giza, El-Giza (Egypt)]. E-mail: gamalhassan65@hotmail.com; Sharaf, M.A. [Department of Ionizing Radiation Metrology, National Institute for Standards (NIS), Tersa Street El-Haram El-Giza, P.O. Box 136 Giza, El-Giza (Egypt)

    2006-01-15

    The ESR spectrum of unirradiated modern aragonite coral (CaCO{sub 3}) material from the Red Sea (Hurgada area) is characterized by four signals with spectroscopic splitting factors of g=2.0056, 2.0030, 2.0006 and 1.997. The most intensive and stable line in this spectrum is attributed to CO{sub 2}{sup -} radicals at g=2.0006+/-0.0005. The dose response from 50mGy to 20Gy, energy dependence and effective atomic number are calculated so as to investigate coral as a dosimeter material in the clinical dose range. The lower experimental {gamma}-dose limit was found to be 50mGy with signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio of 15. The combined and expanded uncertainties accompanying these measurements are 1.72% and 3.44%, respectively.

  4. Evaluation of uncertainties in the calibration of radiation personal monitor with Cesium-137 source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirapalheta, Tatiane; Alexandre, Anderson; Costa, Camila; Batista, Gilmar; Paulino, Thyago; Albuquerque, Marcos; Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

    2016-01-01

    This work shows the entire calibration process of an individual monitor, focusing on radiation protection, in health, correlating these measures associated uncertainties. The results show an expanded uncertainty of 5.81% for dose rate measurements and an expanded uncertainty of 5.61% for integrated dose measurements, these uncertainties have been evaluated the type A and type B with its components. (author)

  5. Uncertainty and variability in updated estimates of potential dose and risk at a US Nuclear Test Site - Bikini Atoll

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.; Robison, W.L.

    1997-01-01

    Uncertainty and interindividual variability were assessed in estimated doses for a rehabilitation scenario for Bikini Island at Bikini Atoll, in which the top 40 cm of soil would be removed in the housing and village area, and the rest of the island would be treated with potassium fertilizer, prior to an assumed resettlement date of 1999. Doses were estimated for ingested 137 Cs and 90 Sr, external gamma-exposure, and inhalation+ingestion of 241 Am + 239+240 Pu. Two dietary scenarios were considered: imported foods are available (IA); imported foods are unavailable with only local foods consumed (IUA). After ∼5 y of Bikini residence under either IA or IUA assumptions, upper and lower 95% confidence limits on interindividual variability in calculated dose were estimated to lie within a ∼threefold factor of its in population-average value; upper and lower 95% confidence limits on uncertainty in calculated dose were estimated to lie within a ∼twofold factor of its expected value. For reference, the expected values of population-average dose at age 70 y were estimated to be 16 and 52 mSv under IA and IUA dietary assumptions, respectively. Assuming that 200 Bikini resettlers would be exposed to local foods (under both IA and IUA assumptions), the maximum 1-y dose received by any Bikini resident is most likely to be approximately 2 and 8 mSv under the IA and IUA assumptions, respectively. Under the most likely dietary scenario, involving access to imported foods, this analysis indicates that it is most likely that no additional cancer fatalities (above those normally expected) would arise from the increased radiation exposures considered. 33 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  6. Developing a flexible and verifiable integrated dose assessment capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.; Rhea, T.A.; Copenhaver, E.D.; Bogard, J.S.

    1987-01-01

    A flexible yet verifiable system of computing and recording personnel doses is needed. Recent directions in statutes establish the trend of combining internal and external doses. We are developing a Health Physics Information Management System (HPIMS) that will centralize dosimetry calculations and data storage; integrate health physics records with other health-related disciplines, such as industrial hygiene, medicine, and safety; provide a more auditable system with published algorithms and clearly defined flowcharts of system operation; readily facilitate future changes dictated by new regulations, new dosimetric models, and new systems of units; and address ad-hoc inquiries regarding worker/workplace interactions, including potential synergisms with non-radiation exposures. The system is modular and provides a high degree of isolation from low-level detail, allowing flexibility for changes without adversely affecting other parts of the system. 10 refs., 3 figs

  7. Limitations of a convolution method for modeling geometric uncertainties in radiation therapy: the radiobiological dose-per-fraction effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, William; Battista, Jerry; Van Dyk, Jake

    2004-01-01

    The convolution method can be used to model the effect of random geometric uncertainties into planned dose distributions used in radiation treatment planning. This is effectively done by linearly adding infinitesimally small doses, each with a particular geometric offset, over an assumed infinite number of fractions. However, this process inherently ignores the radiobiological dose-per-fraction effect since only the summed physical dose distribution is generated. The resultant potential error on predicted radiobiological outcome [quantified in this work with tumor control probability (TCP), equivalent uniform dose (EUD), normal tissue complication probability (NTCP), and generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD)] has yet to be thoroughly quantified. In this work, the results of a Monte Carlo simulation of geometric displacements are compared to those of the convolution method for random geometric uncertainties of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 mm (standard deviation). The α/β CTV ratios of 0.8, 1.5, 3, 5, and 10 Gy are used to represent the range of radiation responses for different tumors, whereas a single α/β OAR ratio of 3 Gy is used to represent all the organs at risk (OAR). The analysis is performed on a four-field prostate treatment plan of 18 MV x rays. The fraction numbers are varied from 1-50, with isoeffective adjustments of the corresponding dose-per-fractions to maintain a constant tumor control, using the linear-quadratic cell survival model. The average differences in TCP and EUD of the target, and in NTCP and gEUD of the OAR calculated from the convolution and Monte Carlo methods reduced asymptotically as the total fraction number increased, with the differences reaching negligible levels beyond the treatment fraction number of ≥20. The convolution method generally overestimates the radiobiological indices, as compared to the Monte Carlo method, for the target volume, and underestimates those for the OAR. These effects are interconnected and attributed

  8. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M. (Mathematics and Computer Science); (Univ. of Chicago); (New York Univ.)

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  9. Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

    the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...

  10. Integration of QFD, AHP, and LPP methods in supplier development problems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shad, Zahra; Roghanian, Emad; Mojibian, Fatemeh

    2014-04-01

    Quality function deployment (QFD) is a customer-driven approach, widely used to develop or process new product to maximize customer satisfaction. Last researches used linear physical programming (LPP) procedure to optimize QFD; however, QFD issue involved uncertainties, or fuzziness, which requires taking them into account for more realistic study. In this paper, a set of fuzzy data is used to address linguistic values parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. Proposed integrated approach including analytic hierarchy process (AHP), QFD, and LPP to maximize overall customer satisfaction under uncertain conditions and apply them in the supplier development problem. The fuzzy AHP approach is adopted as a powerful method to obtain the relationship between the customer requirements and engineering characteristics (ECs) to construct house of quality in QFD method. LPP is used to obtain the optimal achievement level of the ECs and subsequently the customer satisfaction level under different degrees of uncertainty. The effectiveness of proposed method will be illustrated by an example.

  11. Micropollutants throughout an integrated urban drainage model: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Cosenza, Alida; Viviani, Gaspare

    2017-11-01

    The paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated urban drainage model which includes micropollutants. Specifically, a bespoke integrated model developed in previous studies has been modified in order to include the micropollutant assessment (namely, sulfamethoxazole - SMX). The model takes into account also the interactions between the three components of the system: sewer system (SS), wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and receiving water body (RWB). The analysis has been applied to an experimental catchment nearby Palermo (Italy): the Nocella catchment. Overall, five scenarios, each characterized by different uncertainty combinations of sub-systems (i.e., SS, WWTP and RWB), have been considered applying, for the sensitivity analysis, the Extended-FAST method in order to select the key factors affecting the RWB quality and to design a reliable/useful experimental campaign. Results have demonstrated that sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool for increasing operator confidence in the modelling results. The approach adopted here can be used for blocking some non-identifiable factors, thus wisely modifying the structure of the model and reducing the related uncertainty. The model factors related to the SS have been found to be the most relevant factors affecting the SMX modeling in the RWB when all model factors (scenario 1) or model factors of SS (scenarios 2 and 3) are varied. If the only factors related to the WWTP are changed (scenarios 4 and 5), the SMX concentration in the RWB is mainly influenced (till to 95% influence of the total variance for SSMX,max) by the aerobic sorption coefficient. A progressive uncertainty reduction from the upstream to downstream was found for the soluble fraction of SMX in the RWB.

  12. Total Dose Effects on Bipolar Integrated Circuits at Low Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, A. H.; Swimm, R. T.; Thorbourn, D. O.

    2012-01-01

    Total dose damage in bipolar integrated circuits is investigated at low temperature, along with the temperature dependence of the electrical parameters of internal transistors. Bandgap narrowing causes the gain of npn transistors to decrease far more at low temperature compared to pnp transistors, due to the large difference in emitter doping concentration. When irradiations are done at temperatures of -140 deg C, no damage occurs until devices are warmed to temperatures above -50 deg C. After warm-up, subsequent cooling shows that damage is then present at low temperature. This can be explained by the very strong temperature dependence of dispersive transport in the continuous-time-random-walk model for hole transport. For linear integrated circuits, low temperature operation is affected by the strong temperature dependence of npn transistors along with the higher sensitivity of lateral and substrate pnp transistors to radiation damage.

  13. TH-C-BRD-07: Minimizing Dose Uncertainty for Spot Scanning Beam Proton Therapy of Moving Tumor with Optimization of Delivery Sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, H; Zhang, X; Zhu, X; Li, Y

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) has been shown to be able to reduce dose to normal tissue compared to intensity modulated photon radio-therapy (IMRT), and has been implemented for selected lung cancer patients. However, respiratory motion-induced dose uncertainty remain one of the major concerns for the radiotherapy of lung cancer, and the utility of IMPT for lung patients was limited because of the proton dose uncertainty induced by motion. Strategies such as repainting and tumor tracking have been proposed and studied but repainting could result in unacceptable long delivery time and tracking is not yet clinically available. We propose a novel delivery strategy for spot scanning proton beam therapy. Method: The effective number of delivery (END) for each spot position in a treatment plan was calculated based on the parameters of the delivery system, including time required for each spot, spot size and energy. The dose uncertainty was then calculated with an analytical formula. The spot delivery sequence was optimized to maximize END and minimize the dose uncertainty. 2D Measurements with a detector array on a 1D moving platform were performed to validate the calculated results. Results: 143 2D measurements on a moving platform were performed for different delivery sequences of a single layer uniform pattern. The measured dose uncertainty is a strong function of the delivery sequence, the worst delivery sequence results in dose error up to 70% while the optimized delivery sequence results in dose error of <5%. END vs. measured dose uncertainty follows the analytical formula. Conclusion: With optimized delivery sequence, it is feasible to minimize the dose uncertainty due to motion in spot scanning proton therapy

  14. Sparing Healthy Tissue and Increasing Tumor Dose Using Bayesian Modeling of Geometric Uncertainties for Planning Target Volume Personalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herschtal, Alan; Te Marvelde, Luc; Mengersen, Kerrie; Foroudi, Farshad; Eade, Thomas; Pham, Daniel; Caine, Hannah; Kron, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To develop a mathematical tool that can update a patient's planning target volume (PTV) partway through a course of radiation therapy to more precisely target the tumor for the remainder of treatment and reduce dose to surrounding healthy tissue. Methods and Materials: Daily on-board imaging was used to collect large datasets of displacements for patients undergoing external beam radiation therapy for solid tumors. Bayesian statistical modeling of these geometric uncertainties was used to optimally trade off between displacement data collected from previously treated patients and the progressively accumulating data from a patient currently partway through treatment, to optimally predict future displacements for that patient. These predictions were used to update the PTV position and margin width for the remainder of treatment, such that the clinical target volume (CTV) was more precisely targeted. Results: Software simulation of dose to CTV and normal tissue for 2 real prostate displacement datasets consisting of 146 and 290 patients treated with a minimum of 30 fractions each showed that re-evaluating the PTV position and margin width after 8 treatment fractions reduced healthy tissue dose by 19% and 17%, respectively, while maintaining CTV dose. Conclusion: Incorporating patient-specific displacement patterns from early in a course of treatment allows PTV adaptation for the remainder of treatment. This substantially reduces the dose to healthy tissues and thus can reduce radiation therapy–induced toxicities, improving patient outcomes

  15. Sparing Healthy Tissue and Increasing Tumor Dose Using Bayesian Modeling of Geometric Uncertainties for Planning Target Volume Personalization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herschtal, Alan, E-mail: Alan.Herschtal@petermac.org [Department of Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Faculty of Health, Arts and Design, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Te Marvelde, Luc [Department of Biostatistics and Clinical Trials, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Mengersen, Kerrie [School of Mathematical Sciences, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia); Foroudi, Farshad [Department of Radiation Oncology, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); The Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne (Australia); Eade, Thomas [Northern Sydney Cancer Centre, Radiation Oncology Department, Royal North Shore Hospital, St. Leonards, Sydney (Australia); Northern Clinical School, University of Sydney (Australia); Pham, Daniel [Department of Radiation Therapy, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Caine, Hannah [Northern Sydney Cancer Centre, Radiation Oncology Department, Royal North Shore Hospital, St. Leonards, Sydney (Australia); Kron, Tomas [The Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne (Australia); Department of Physical Sciences, Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre, Melbourne (Australia)

    2015-06-01

    Objective: To develop a mathematical tool that can update a patient's planning target volume (PTV) partway through a course of radiation therapy to more precisely target the tumor for the remainder of treatment and reduce dose to surrounding healthy tissue. Methods and Materials: Daily on-board imaging was used to collect large datasets of displacements for patients undergoing external beam radiation therapy for solid tumors. Bayesian statistical modeling of these geometric uncertainties was used to optimally trade off between displacement data collected from previously treated patients and the progressively accumulating data from a patient currently partway through treatment, to optimally predict future displacements for that patient. These predictions were used to update the PTV position and margin width for the remainder of treatment, such that the clinical target volume (CTV) was more precisely targeted. Results: Software simulation of dose to CTV and normal tissue for 2 real prostate displacement datasets consisting of 146 and 290 patients treated with a minimum of 30 fractions each showed that re-evaluating the PTV position and margin width after 8 treatment fractions reduced healthy tissue dose by 19% and 17%, respectively, while maintaining CTV dose. Conclusion: Incorporating patient-specific displacement patterns from early in a course of treatment allows PTV adaptation for the remainder of treatment. This substantially reduces the dose to healthy tissues and thus can reduce radiation therapy–induced toxicities, improving patient outcomes.

  16. Uncertainty analysis of an integrated energy system based on information theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, Xueqian; Sun, Hongbin; Guo, Qinglai; Pan, Zhaoguang; Xiong, Wen; Wang, Li

    2017-01-01

    Currently, a custom-designed configuration of different renewable technologies named the integrated energy system (IES) has become popular due to its high efficiency, benefiting from complementary multi-energy technologies. This paper proposes an information entropy approach to quantify uncertainty in an integrated energy system based on a stochastic model that drives a power system model derived from an actual network on Barry Island. Due to the complexity of co-behaviours between generators, a copula-based approach is utilized to articulate the dependency structure of the generator outputs with regard to such factors as weather conditions. Correlation coefficients and mutual information, which are effective for assessing the dependence relationships, are applied to judge whether the stochastic IES model is correct. The calculated information values can be used to analyse the impacts of the coupling of power and heat on power flows and heat flows, and this approach will be helpful for improving the operation of IES. - Highlights: • The paper explores uncertainty of an integrated energy system. • The dependent weather model is verified from the perspective of correlativity. • The IES model considers the dependence between power and heat. • The information theory helps analyse the complexity of IES operation. • The application of the model is studied using an operational system on Barry Island.

  17. Efficient uncertainty quantification in fully-integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, K. L.; Berg, S. J.; Davison, J. H.; Sudicky, E. A.; Forsyth, P. A.

    2018-01-01

    Although high performance computers and advanced numerical methods have made the application of fully-integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport models such as HydroGeoSphere common place, run times for large complex basin models can still be on the order of days to weeks, thus, limiting the usefulness of traditional workhorse algorithms for uncertainty quantification (UQ) such as Latin Hypercube simulation (LHS) or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), which generally require thousands of simulations to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. In this paper we investigate non-intrusive polynomial chaos for uncertainty quantification, which in contrast to random sampling methods (e.g., LHS and MCS), represents a model response of interest as a weighted sum of polynomials over the random inputs. Once a chaos expansion has been constructed, approximating the mean, covariance, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, and other common statistics as well as local and global sensitivity measures is straightforward and computationally inexpensive, thus making PCE an attractive UQ method for hydrologic models with long run times. Our polynomial chaos implementation was validated through comparison with analytical solutions as well as solutions obtained via LHS for simple numerical problems. It was then used to quantify parametric uncertainty in a series of numerical problems with increasing complexity, including a two-dimensional fully-saturated, steady flow and transient transport problem with six uncertain parameters and one quantity of interest; a one-dimensional variably-saturated column test involving transient flow and transport, four uncertain parameters, and two quantities of interest at 101 spatial locations and five different times each (1010 total); and a three-dimensional fully-integrated surface and subsurface flow and transport problem for a small test catchment involving seven uncertain parameters and three quantities of interest at

  18. Uncertainty of angular displacement measurement with a MEMS gyroscope integrated in a smartphone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Campos Porath, Maurício; Dolci, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    Low-cost inertial sensors have recently gained popularity and are now widely used in electronic devices such as smartphones and tablets. In this paper we present the results of a set of experiments aiming to assess the angular displacement measurement errors of a gyroscope integrated in a smartphone of a recent model. The goal is to verify whether these sensors could substitute dedicated electronic inclinometers for the measurement of angular displacement. We estimated a maximum error of 0.3° (sum of expanded uncertainty and maximum absolute bias) for the roll and pitch axes, for a measurement time without referencing up to 1 h. (paper)

  19. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment: Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karanki, D.R.; Rahman, S.; Dang, V.N.; Zerkak, O.

    2017-01-01

    The coupling of plant simulation models and stochastic models representing failure events in Dynamic Event Trees (DET) is a framework used to model the dynamic interactions among physical processes, equipment failures, and operator responses. The integration of physical and stochastic models may additionally enhance the treatment of uncertainties. Probabilistic Safety Assessments as currently implemented propagate the (epistemic) uncertainties in failure probabilities, rates, and frequencies; while the uncertainties in the physical model (parameters) are not propagated. The coupling of deterministic (physical) and probabilistic models in integrated simulations such as DET allows both types of uncertainties to be considered. However, integrated accident simulations with epistemic uncertainties will challenge even today's high performance computing infrastructure, especially for simulations of inherently complex nuclear or chemical plants. Conversely, intentionally limiting computations for practical reasons would compromise accuracy of results. This work investigates how to tradeoff accuracy and computations to quantify risk in light of both uncertainties and accident dynamics. A simple depleting tank problem that can be solved analytically is considered to examine the adequacy of a discrete DET approach. The results show that optimal allocation of computational resources between epistemic and aleatory calculations by means of convergence studies ensures accuracy within a limited budget. - Highlights: • Accident simulations considering uncertainties require intensive computations. • Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations is a challenge. • Optimal allocation between epistemic & aleatory computations ensures the tradeoff. • Online convergence gives an early indication of computational requirements. • Uncertainty propagation in DDET is examined on a tank problem solved analytically.

  20. Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

    2018-01-01

    An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

  1. Evaluation of mechanical precision and alignment uncertainties for an integrated CT/LINAC system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Court, Laurence; Rosen, Isaac; Mohan, Radhe; Dong Lei

    2003-01-01

    A new integrated CT/LINAC combination, in which the CT scanner is inside the radiation therapy treatment room and the same patient couch is used for CT scanning and treatment (after a 180-degree couch rotation), should allow for accurate correction of interfractional setup errors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sources of uncertainties, and to measure the overall precision of this system. The following sources of uncertainty were identified: (1) the patient couch position on the LINAC side after a rotation, (2) the patient couch position on the CT side after a rotation, (3) the patient couch position as indicated by its digital readout, (4) the difference in couch sag between the CT and LINAC positions, (5) the precision of the CT coordinates, (6) the identification of fiducial markers from CT images, (7) the alignment of contours with structures in the CT images, and (8) the alignment with setup lasers. The largest single uncertainties (one standard deviation or 1 SD) were found in couch position on the CT side after a rotation (0.5 mm in the RL direction) and the alignment of contours with the CT images (0.4 mm in the SI direction). All other sources of uncertainty are less than 0.3 mm (1 SD). The overall precision of two setup protocols was investigated in a controlled phantom study. A protocol that relies heavily on the mechanical integrity of the system, and assumes a fixed relationship between the LINAC isocenter and the CT images, gave a predicted precision (1 SD) of 0.6, 0.7, and 0.6 mm in the SI, RL and AP directions, respectively. The second protocol reduces reliance on the mechanical precision of the total system, particularly the patient couch, by using radio-opaque fiducial markers to transfer the isocenter information from the LINAC side to the CT images. This protocol gave a slightly improved predicted precision of 0.5, 0.4, and 0.4 mm in the SI, RL and AP directions, respectively. The distribution of phantom position after CT

  2. Integrative evaluation for sustainable decisions of urban wastewater system management under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadjimichael, A.; Corominas, L.; Comas, J.

    2017-12-01

    With sustainable development as their overarching goal, urban wastewater system (UWS) managers need to take into account multiple social, economic, technical and environmental facets related to their decisions. In this complex decision-making environment, uncertainty can be formidable. It is present both in the ways the system is interpreted stochastically, but also in its natural ever-shifting behavior. This inherent uncertainty suggests that wiser decisions would be made under an adaptive and iterative decision-making regime. No decision-support framework has been presented in the literature to effectively addresses all these needs. The objective of this work is to describe such a conceptual framework to evaluate and compare alternative solutions for various UWS challenges within an adaptive management structure. Socio-economic aspects such as externalities are taken into account, along with other traditional criteria as necessary. Robustness, reliability and resilience analyses test the performance of the system against present and future variability. A valuation uncertainty analysis incorporates uncertain valuation assumptions in the decision-making process. The framework is demonstrated with an application to a case study presenting a typical problem often faced by managers: poor river water quality, increasing population, and more stringent water quality legislation. The application of the framework made use of: i) a cost-benefit analysis including monetized environmental benefits and damages; ii) a robustness analysis of system performance against future conditions; iii) reliability and resilience analyses of the system given contextual variability; and iv) a valuation uncertainty analysis of model parameters. The results suggest that the installation of bigger volumes would give rise to increased benefits despite larger capital costs, as well as increased robustness and resilience. Population numbers appear to affect the estimated benefits most, followed by

  3. Climate change, uncertainty, and resilient fisheries: Institutional responses through integrative science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, K.; Charles, A.; Barange, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the importance of a focus on the fundamental goals of resilience and adaptive capacity in the governance of uncertain fishery systems, particularly in the context of climate change. Climate change interacts strongly with fishery systems, and adds to the inherent uncertainty...... that understanding these aspects of fishery systems and fishery governance is valuable even in the absence of climate-induced processes of change, but that attention to climate change both reinforces the need for, and facilitates the move toward, implementation of integrative science for improved fishery governance....... and processes – to support suitable institutional responses, a broader planning perspective, and development of suitable resilience-building strategies. The paper explores how synergies between institutional change and integrative science can facilitate the development of more effective fisheries policy...

  4. An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel K. Newlands

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables and remotely-sensed indices. The method devises a multivariate statistical model to compute bias and uncertainty in forecasted yield at the Census of Agricultural Region (CAR scale across the Canadian Prairies. The method uses robust variable-selection to select the best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation and random forest-tree machine learning techniques are then integrated to generate sequential forecasts through the growing season. Cross-validation of the model was performed by hindcasting/backcasting it and comparing its forecasts against available historical data (1987-2011 for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.. The model was also validated for the 2012 growing season by comparing its forecast skill at the CAR, provincial and Canadian Prairie region scales against available statistical survey data. Mean percent departures between wheat yield forecasted were under-estimated by 1-4 % in mid-season and over-estimated by 1 % at the end of the growing season. This integrated methodology offers a consistent, generalizable approach for sequentially forecasting crop yield at the regional-scale. It provides a statistically robust, yet flexible way to concurrently adjust to data-rich and data-sparse situations, adaptively select different predictors of yield to changing levels of environmental uncertainty, and to update forecasts sequentially so as to incorporate new data as it becomes available. This integrated method also provides additional statistical support for assessing the accuracy and reliability of model-based crop yield forecasts in time and space.

  5. Role of calibration, validation, and relevance in multi-level uncertainty integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Chenzhao; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    Calibration of model parameters is an essential step in predicting the response of a complicated system, but the lack of data at the system level makes it impossible to conduct this quantification directly. In such a situation, system model parameters are estimated using tests at lower levels of complexity which share the same model parameters with the system. For such a multi-level problem, this paper proposes a methodology to quantify the uncertainty in the system level prediction by integrating calibration, validation and sensitivity analysis at different levels. The proposed approach considers the validity of the models used for parameter estimation at lower levels, as well as the relevance at the lower level to the prediction at the system level. The model validity is evaluated using a model reliability metric, and models with multivariate output are considered. The relevance is quantified by comparing Sobol indices at the lower level and system level, thus measuring the extent to which a lower level test represents the characteristics of the system so that the calibration results can be reliably used in the system level. Finally the results of calibration, validation and relevance analysis are integrated in a roll-up method to predict the system output. - Highlights: • Relevance analysis to quantify the closeness of two models. • Stochastic model reliability metric to integrate multiple validation experiments. • Extend the model reliability metric to deal with multivariate output. • Roll-up formula to integrate calibration, validation, and relevance.

  6. Uncertainty reduction of gravity and magnetic inversion through the integration of petrophysical constraints and geological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giraud, Jérémie; Jessell, Mark; Lindsay, Mark; Martin, Roland; Pakyuz-Charrier, Evren; Ogarko, Vitaliy

    2016-04-01

    We introduce and test a workflow that integrates petrophysical constraints and geological data in geophysical inversion to decrease the uncertainty and non-uniqueness of the results. We show that the integration of geological information and petrophysical constraints in geophysical inversion can improve inversion results in terms of both uncertainty reduction and resolution. This workflow uses statistical petrophysical properties to constrain the values retrieved by the geophysical inversion and geological prior information to decrease the effect of non-uniqueness. Surface geological data are used to generate geological models as a source of geometrical prior information. Petrophysical measurements are used to derive the statistical laws used for the petrophysical constraints. We integrate the different sources of information in a Bayesian framework, which will take into account these states of information. This permits us to quantify the posterior state of knowledge, the reduction of the uncertainty and to calculate the influence of prior information. To quantify the influence of petrophysical constraints and geological data we compare results obtained with several levels of constraints. We start by inverting data without petrophysical constraints and geological prior information. Then, we add petrophysical constraints before using geological prior information. The results of the inversion are characterized using fixed-point statistics. Various indicators such as model and data misfits, resolution matrices and statistical fit to the petrophysical data are calculated. The resolution matrices are used to plot sensitivity maps. We calculate the posterior covariance matrices to estimate the uncertainty of the model. This workflow was first tested using very simple synthetic datasets before using a subset of the Mansfield area data (Victoria, Australia). The geological model is derived from geological field data. We simulate petrophysical properties based on field

  7. Uncertainty analysis of the 35% reactor inlet header break in a CANDU 6 reactor using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with integrated uncertainty analysis option

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dupleac, D., E-mail: danieldu@cne.pub.ro [Politehnica Univ. of Bucharest (Romania); Perez, M.; Reventos, F., E-mail: marina.perez@upc.edu, E-mail: francesc.reventos@upc.edu [Technical Univ. of Catalonia (Spain); Allison, C., E-mail: iss@cableone.net [Innovative Systems Software (United States)

    2011-07-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) follows the input-propagation approach using probability distribution functions to define the uncertainty of the input parameters. The main steps for this type of methodologies, often referred as to statistical approaches or Wilks’ methods, are the ones that follow: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) calculates the number of required code runs given the desired percentile and confidence level, performs the sampling process for the

  8. Uncertainty analysis of the 35% reactor inlet header break in a CANDU 6 reactor using RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 with integrated uncertainty analysis option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupleac, D.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.; Allison, C.

    2011-01-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of an international nuclear technology Software Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses the publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with (a) advanced programming and numerical techniques, (b) advanced SDTP-member-developed models for LWR, HWR, and research reactor analysis, and (c) a variety of other member-developed computational packages. One such computational package is an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) follows the input-propagation approach using probability distribution functions to define the uncertainty of the input parameters. The main steps for this type of methodologies, often referred as to statistical approaches or Wilks’ methods, are the ones that follow: 1. Selection of the plant; 2. Selection of the scenario; 3. Selection of the safety criteria; 4. Identification and ranking of the relevant phenomena based on the safety criteria; 5. Selection of the appropriate code parameters to represent those phenomena; 6. Association of uncertainty by means of Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for each selected parameter; 7. Random sampling of the selected parameters according to its PDF and performing multiple computer runs to obtain uncertainty bands with a certain percentile and confidence level; 8. Processing the results of the multiple computer runs to estimate the uncertainty bands for the computed quantities associated with the selected safety criteria. RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0(IUA) calculates the number of required code runs given the desired percentile and confidence level, performs the sampling process for the

  9. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2015-11-30

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

  10. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort David [MIT

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  11. Radiation quality and effective dose equivalent of alpha particles from radon decay products indoors: uncertainties in risk estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Affan, I.A. (Velindre Hospital, Whitchurch, Cardiff (United Kingdom))

    1994-01-01

    In order to make a better estimate of cancer risk due to radon the radiation quality of alpha particles emitted from the element and its daughters has been re-assessed. In particular, uncertainties in all components involved in the calculations of the effective dose E, have been investigated. This has been done in the light of the recent draft report of the ICRU on quantities and units for use in radiation protection (Allisy et al (1991) ICRU NEWS 2). On the assumption of an indoor radon concentration of 30 Bq.m[sup -3], microdose spectra have been calculated for alpha particles hitting lung cells at different depths. Then the mean quality factor Q-bar in the lung, dose equivalent H[sub T] to the lung and the effective dose have been calculated. A comparison between lung cancer risk from radon and that arising from diagnostic X rays to the chest is made. A suggestion to make the lung weighting factor w[sub T] a function of the fraction of lung cells hit is discussed. (Author).

  12. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandlikar, Milind [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

  13. Uncertainty assessment and comparison of different dose algorithms used to evaluate a two element LiF:Mg,Ti TL personal dosemeter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stadtmann, H.; Hranitzky, F.C.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an uncertainty assessment and comparison study of different dose algorithms used for evaluating our routine two element TL whole body dosemeter. Due to the photon energy response of the two different filtered LiF:Mg,Ti detector elements the application of dose algorithms is necessary to assess the relevant photon doses over the rated energy range with an acceptable energy response. Three dose algorithms are designed to calculate the dose for the different dose equivalent quantities, i.e. personal dose equivalent H p (10) and H p (0.07) and photon dose equivalent H x used for personal monitoring before introducing personal dose equivalent. Based on experimental results both for free in air calibration as well as calibration on the ISO water slab phantom (type test data) a detailed uncertainty analysis war performed by means of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The uncertainty contribution of the individual detector element signals was taken into special consideration. (author)

  14. Financial risk management for new technology integration in energy planning under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Sajjad; Elsholkami, Mohamed; Elkamel, Ali; Du, Juan; Ydstie, Erik B.; Douglas, Peter L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Financial risk associated with over or underproduction of electricity is studied. • A two-stage stochastic model that considers parameter uncertainties is developed. • The model was applied to a real case to meet projected electricity demand of a fleet of generating stations. • Incorporation of financial risk resulted in an increase in electricity cost. • The selection of technologies was the same as that obtained from a deterministic model. - Abstract: This paper proposes a new methodology to include financial risk management in the framework of two-stage stochastic programming for energy planning under uncertainties in demand and fuel price. A deterministic mixed integer linear programming formulation is extended to a two-stage stochastic programming model in order to take into account random parameters that have discrete and finite probabilistic distributions. This was applied to a case study focusing on planning the capacity supply to meet the projected electricity demand for the fleet of electricity generation stations owned and operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The objective of the proposed mathematical model is to minimize cost subject to environmental constraints. The case study is investigated by considering only existing technologies and also by considering the integration of new technologies that help achieve stricter carbon reduction requirements

  15. Integrating geological uncertainty in long-term open pit mine production planning by ant colony optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilani, Seyed-Omid; Sattarvand, Javad

    2016-02-01

    Meeting production targets in terms of ore quantity and quality is critical for a successful mining operation. In-situ grade uncertainty causes both deviations from production targets and general financial deficits. A new stochastic optimization algorithm based on ant colony optimization (ACO) approach is developed herein to integrate geological uncertainty described through a series of the simulated ore bodies. Two different strategies were developed based on a single predefined probability value (Prob) and multiple probability values (Pro bnt) , respectively in order to improve the initial solutions that created by deterministic ACO procedure. Application at the Sungun copper mine in the northwest of Iran demonstrate the abilities of the stochastic approach to create a single schedule and control the risk of deviating from production targets over time and also increase the project value. A comparison between two strategies and traditional approach illustrates that the multiple probability strategy is able to produce better schedules, however, the single predefined probability is more practical in projects requiring of high flexibility degree.

  16. Determination of uncertainties in the calculation of dose rates at transport and storage casks; Unsicherheiten bei der Berechnung von Dosisleistungen an Transport- und Lagerbehaeltern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schloemer, Luc Laurent Alexander

    2014-12-17

    The compliance with the dose rate limits for transport and storage casks (TLB) for spent nuclear fuel from pressurised water reactors can be proved by calculation. This includes the determination of the radioactive sources and the shielding-capability of the cask. In this thesis the entire computational chain, which extends from the determination of the source terms to the final Monte-Carlo-transport-calculation is analysed and the arising uncertainties are quantified not only by benchmarks but also by variational calculi. The background of these analyses is that the comparison with measured dose rates at different TLBs shows an overestimation by the values calculated. Regarding the studies performed, the overestimation can be mainly explained by the detector characteristics for the measurement of the neutron dose rate and additionally in case of the gamma dose rates by the energy group structure, which the calculation is based on. It turns out that the consideration of the uncertainties occurring along the computational chain can lead to even greater overestimation. Concerning the dose rate calculation at cask loadings with spent uranium fuel assemblies an uncertainty of (({sup +21}{sub -28}) ±2) % (rel.) for the total gamma dose rate and of ({sup +28±23}{sub -55±4}) % (rel.) for the total neutron dose rate are estimated. For mixed-loadings with spent uranium and MOX fuel assemblies an uncertainty of ({sup +24±3}{sub -27±2}) % (rel.) for the total gamma dose rate and of ({sup +28±23}{sub -55±4}) % (rel.) for the total neutron dose rate are quantified. The results show that the computational chain has not to be modified, because the calculations performed lead to conservative dose rate predictions, even if high uncertainties at neutron dose rate measurements arise. Thus at first the uncertainties of the neutron dose rate measurement have to be decreased to enable a reduction of the overestimation of the calculated dose rate afterwards. In the present thesis

  17. Combination for differential and integral data: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of reactor performance parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marable, J.H.; de Saussure, G.; Weisbin, C.R.

    1982-01-01

    This chapter attempts to show how the various types of data presented and discussed in previous chapters can be combined and applied to the calculation of performance parameters of a reactor design model. Discusses derivation of least-squares adjustment; input data to the adjustment; the results of adjustment; and application to an LMFBR. Demonstrates that the least-squares formulae represent a logical, well-founded method for combining the results of integral and differential experiments. Includes calculational bias factors and their uncertainties. Concludes that the adjustment technique is a valuable tool, and that significant progress has been made with respect to its development and its applications. Recommends further work on the evaluation of covariance files, especially for calculational biases, and the inclusion of specific shielding factors as variables to be adjusted. The appendix features a calculation whose goal is to find the form of the projection operator which projects perpendicular to the calculational manifold

  18. Optimization under uncertainty of a biomass-integrated renewable energy microgrid with energy storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yingying; Jenkins, Bryan M.; Kornbluth, Kurt

    2018-01-01

    Deterministic constrained optimization and stochastic optimization approaches were used to evaluate uncertainties in biomass-integrated microgrids supplying both electricity and heat. An economic linear programming model with a sliding time window was developed to assess design and scheduling...... of biomass combined heat and power (BCHP) based microgrid systems. Other available technologies considered within the microgrid were small-scale wind turbines, photovoltaic modules (PV), producer gas storage, battery storage, thermal energy storage and heat-only boilers. As an illustrative example, a case...... study was examined for a conceptual utility grid-connected microgrid application in Davis, California. The results show that for the assumptions used, a BCHP/PV with battery storage combination is the most cost effective design based on the assumed energy load profile, local climate data, utility tariff...

  19. Integrated forward/reverse logistics network design under uncertainty with pricing for collection of used products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fattahi, Mohammad; Govindan, Kannan

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses design and planning of an integrated forward/reverse logistics network over a planning horizon with multiple tactical periods. In the network, demand for new products and potential return of used products are stochastic. Furthermore, collection amounts of used products...... with different quality levels are assumed dependent on offered acquisition prices to customer zones. A uniform distribution function defines the expected price of each customer zone for one unit of each used product. Using two-stage stochastic programming, a mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed....... To cope with demand and potential return uncertainty, Latin Hypercube Sampling method is applied to generate fan of scenarios and then, backward scenario reduction technique is used to reduce the number of scenarios. Due to the problem complexity, a novel simulation-based simulated annealing algorithm...

  20. Calculation of the uncertainty in complication probability for various dose-response models, applied to the parotid gland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schilstra, C.; Meertens, H.

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: Usually, models that predict normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) are fitted to clinical data with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. This method inevitably causes a loss of information contained in the data. In this study, an alternative method is investigated that calculates the parameter probability distribution (PD), and, thus, conserves all information. The PD method also allows the calculation of the uncertainty in the NTCP, which is an (often-neglected) prerequisite for the intercomparison of both treatment plans and NTCP models. The PD and ML methods are applied to parotid gland data, and the results are compared. Methods and Materials: The drop in salivary flow due to radiotherapy was measured in 25 parotid glands of 15 patients. Together with the parotid gland dose-volume histograms (DVH), this enabled the calculation of the parameter PDs for three different NTCP models (Lyman, relative seriality, and critical volume). From these PDs, the NTCP and its uncertainty could be calculated for arbitrary parotid gland DVHs. ML parameters and resulting NTCP values were calculated also. Results: All models fitted equally well. The parameter PDs turned out to have nonnormal shapes and long tails. The NTCP predictions of the ML and PD method usually differed considerably, depending on the NTCP model and the nature of irradiation. NTCP curves and ML parameters suggested a highly parallel organization of the parotid gland. Conclusions: Considering the substantial differences between the NTCP predictions of the ML and PD method, the use of the PD method is preferred, because this is the only method that takes all information contained in the clinical data into account. Furthermore, PD method gives a true measure of the uncertainty in the NTCP

  1. Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Qiuwen, E-mail: qchen@rcees.ac.cn [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China); China Three Gorges University, Daxuelu 8, Yichang 443002 (China); CEER, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Guangzhoulu 223, Nanjing 210029 (China); Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui [RCEES, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shuangqinglu 18, Beijing 10085 (China)

    2014-06-01

    Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004–2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial–temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial–temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. - Highlights: • An innovative method is developed to analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. • The algal blooms in Taihu Lake showed obvious spatial and temporal patterns. • The lake is mainly characterized as moderate bloom but with high uncertainty. • Severe bloom with low uncertainty appeared occasionally in the northwest part. • The results provide important information to bloom monitoring and management.

  2. A Study of the Impact of Underground Economy on Integral Tax Burden in the Proportional Growth Model under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akif Musayev

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Economic processes are naturally characterized by imprecise and uncertain relevant information. One of the main reasons is existence of an underground economy. However, in existing works, real-world imprecision and uncertainty of economic conditions are not taken into account. In this paper we consider a problem of calculation of a taxation base to assess tax burden for proportionally growing economy under uncertainty. In order to account for imprecision and uncertainty of economic processes, we use the theory of fuzzy sets. A fuzzy integral equation is used to identify an integral tax burden taking into account the contribution of the underground economy for a certain financial (tax year. It is also assumed that dynamics of gross domestic product are modeled by fuzzy linear differential equation. An optimal value of tax burden is determined as a solution to the considered fuzzy integral equation. An example is provided to illustrate validity of the proposed study.

  3. Measuring uncertainty in dose delivered to the cochlea due to setup error during external beam treatment of patients with cancer of the head and neck

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, M.; Lovelock, D.; Hunt, M.; Mechalakos, J.; Hu, Y.; Pham, H.; Jackson, A., E-mail: jacksona@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10065 (United States)

    2013-12-15

    Purpose: To use Cone Beam CT scans obtained just prior to treatments of head and neck cancer patients to measure the setup error and cumulative dose uncertainty of the cochlea. Methods: Data from 10 head and neck patients with 10 planning CTs and 52 Cone Beam CTs taken at time of treatment were used in this study. Patients were treated with conventional fractionation using an IMRT dose painting technique, most with 33 fractions. Weekly radiographic imaging was used to correct the patient setup. The authors used rigid registration of the planning CT and Cone Beam CT scans to find the translational and rotational setup errors, and the spatial setup errors of the cochlea. The planning CT was rotated and translated such that the cochlea positions match those seen in the cone beam scans, cochlea doses were recalculated and fractional doses accumulated. Uncertainties in the positions and cumulative doses of the cochlea were calculated with and without setup adjustments from radiographic imaging. Results: The mean setup error of the cochlea was 0.04 ± 0.33 or 0.06 ± 0.43 cm for RL, 0.09 ± 0.27 or 0.07 ± 0.48 cm for AP, and 0.00 ± 0.21 or −0.24 ± 0.45 cm for SI with and without radiographic imaging, respectively. Setup with radiographic imaging reduced the standard deviation of the setup error by roughly 1–2 mm. The uncertainty of the cochlea dose depends on the treatment plan and the relative positions of the cochlea and target volumes. Combining results for the left and right cochlea, the authors found the accumulated uncertainty of the cochlea dose per fraction was 4.82 (0.39–16.8) cGy, or 10.1 (0.8–32.4) cGy, with and without radiographic imaging, respectively; the percentage uncertainties relative to the planned doses were 4.32% (0.28%–9.06%) and 10.2% (0.7%–63.6%), respectively. Conclusions: Patient setup error introduces uncertainty in the position of the cochlea during radiation treatment. With the assistance of radiographic imaging during setup

  4. Harnessing the theoretical foundations of the exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models to quantify parameter uncertainty using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Philip J; Pintar, Katarina D M; Fazil, Aamir M; Topp, Edward

    2013-09-01

    Dose-response models are the essential link between exposure assessment and computed risk values in quantitative microbial risk assessment, yet the uncertainty that is inherent to computed risks because the dose-response model parameters are estimated using limited epidemiological data is rarely quantified. Second-order risk characterization approaches incorporating uncertainty in dose-response model parameters can provide more complete information to decisionmakers by separating variability and uncertainty to quantify the uncertainty in computed risks. Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop procedures to sample from posterior distributions describing uncertainty in the parameters of exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models using Bayes's theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (in OpenBUGS). The theoretical origins of the beta-Poisson dose-response model are used to identify a decomposed version of the model that enables Bayesian analysis without the need to evaluate Kummer confluent hypergeometric functions. Herein, it is also established that the beta distribution in the beta-Poisson dose-response model cannot address variation among individual pathogens, criteria to validate use of the conventional approximation to the beta-Poisson model are proposed, and simple algorithms to evaluate actual beta-Poisson probabilities of infection are investigated. The developed MCMC procedures are applied to analysis of a case study data set, and it is demonstrated that an important region of the posterior distribution of the beta-Poisson dose-response model parameters is attributable to the absence of low-dose data. This region includes beta-Poisson models for which the conventional approximation is especially invalid and in which many beta distributions have an extreme shape with questionable plausibility. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

  5. Analysis of Electronic Densities and Integrated Doses in Multiform Glioblastomas Stereotactic Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron-Aznar, C.; Moreno-Jimenez, S.; Celis, M. A.; Ballesteros-Zebadua, P.; Larraga-Gutierrez, J. M.

    2008-01-01

    Integrated dose is the total energy delivered in a radiotherapy target. This physical parameter could be a predictor for complications such as brain edema and radionecrosis after stereotactic radiotherapy treatments for brain tumors. Integrated Dose depends on the tissue density and volume. Using CT patients images from the National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery and BrainScan(c) software, this work presents the mean density of 21 multiform glioblastomas, comparative results for normal tissue and estimated integrated dose for each case. The relationship between integrated dose and the probability of complications is discussed

  6. Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cooke, R.M.

    2012-01-01

    This article traces the development of uncertainty analysis through three generations punctuated by large methodology investments in the nuclear sector. Driven by a very high perceived legitimation burden, these investments aimed at strengthening the scientific basis of uncertainty quantification.

  7. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Faming; Yu, Beibei; Zong, Ziliang

    2011-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow

  8. Control letters and uncertainties of the kerma patterns in air, dose absorbed in water and dose absorbed in air of the LSCD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez R, M.T.; Tovar M, V.M.; Cejudo A, J.

    2005-12-01

    With the purpose of characterizing the component of uncertainty of long term of the patron ionization chambers of the LSCD, for the magnitudes: speed of kerma in air Κ α· , dose speed absorbed in water Dα · , and speed absorbed dose in air Dα · , it use the technique of letters of control l-MR/S. This statistical technique it estimates the component of uncertainty of short term by means of the deviation standard inside groups σ ω and that of long term by means of the standard deviation among groups σ β , being this it finishes an estimator of the stability of the patterns.The letters of control l-MR/S it construct for: i) Κ α· , in radiation field of 60 Co for patterns: primary CC01 series 131, secondary NE 2611 series 176, secondary PTW TN30031 series 578 and Third PTW W30001 series 365. ii) Dα),en radiation field of 60 Co for patterns: primary CC01 series 131, Secondary PTW TN30031 series 578 and tertiary PTW W30001 series 365. iii) I-MR/S with extrapolation chamber PTW primary pattern, measurement realizes in secondary patron fields of 90 Sr- 90 Y. The expanded uncertainty U it is calculated of agreement with the Guide of the ISO/BIPM being observed the following thing: a. In some the cases σ β , is the component of the U that more contributed to this. Therefore, it is necessary to settle down technical of sampling in those mensurations that allow to reduce the value of σ β . For example with sizes of subgroup η ∼ 30 data, or with a number of subgroups κ ≥ . That which is achieved automating the mensuration processes. b.The component of the temperature is also one of those that but they contribute to the U, of there the necessity of: to recover the tracking for this magnitude of it influences and to increase the precision in the determinations of the temperature to diminish their influence in the U. c. The percentage difference of the magnitudes dosemeters carried out by it patterns are consistent with U certain. However, it is necessary

  9. Effects of total dose of ionizing radiation on integrated circuits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Marcilei A.G.; Cirne, K.H.; Gimenez, S.; Santos, R.B.B. [Centro Universitario da FEI, Sao Bernardo do Campo, SP (Brazil); Added, N.; Barbosa, M.D.L.; Medina, N.H.; Tabacniks, M.H. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IF/USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica; Lima, J.A. de; Seixas Junior, L.E.; Melo, W. [Centro de Tecnologia da Informacao Paulo Archer, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    Full text: The study of ionizing radiation effects on materials used in electronic devices is of great relevance for the progress of global technological development and, particularly, it is a necessity in some strategic areas in Brazil. Electronic circuits are strongly influenced by radiation and the need for IC's featuring radiation hardness is largely growing to meet the stringent environment in space electronics. On the other hand, aerospace agencies are encouraging both scientific community and semiconductors industry to develop hardened-by-design components using standard manufacturing processes to achieve maximum performance, while significantly reducing costs. To understand the physical phenomena responsible for changes in devices exposed to ionizing radiation several kinds of radiation should then be considered, among them alpha particles, protons, gamma and X-rays. Radiation effects on the integrated circuits are usually divided into two categories: total ionizing dose (TID), a cumulative dose that shifts the threshold voltage and increases transistor's off-state current; single events effects (SEE), a transient effect which can deposit charge directly into the device and disturb the properties of electronic circuits. TID is one of the most common effects and may generate degradation in some parameters of the CMOS electronic devices, such as the threshold voltage oscillation, increase of the sub-threshold slope and increase of the off-state current. The effects of ionizing radiation are the creation of electron-hole pairs in the oxide layer changing operation mode parameters of the electronic device. Indirectly, there will be also changes in the device due to the formation of secondary electrons from the interaction of electromagnetic radiation with the material, since the charge carriers can be trapped both in the oxide layer and in the interface with the oxide. In this work we have investigated the behavior of MOSFET devices fabricated with

  10. SU-F-T-14: Dosimetric Impacts of Various Uncertainties in Cervical Cancer HDR Brachytherapy: Are Conventional Point Doses Good Surrogates for 3D Dosimetry?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, X; Li, Z [University of Florida Health Proton Therapy Institute, Jacksonville, FL (United States); Zheng, D [University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE (United States); Zhang, X; Narayanasamy, G; Morrill, S; Penagaricano, J; Paudel, N [University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock, AR (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: In the context of evaluating dosimetric impacts of a variety of uncertainties involved in HDR Tandem-and-Ovoid treatment, to study the correlations between conventional point doses and 3D volumetric doses. Methods: For 5 cervical cancer patients treated with HDR T&O, 150 plans were retrospectively created to study dosimetric impacts of the following uncertainties: (1) inter-fractional applicator displacement between two treatment fractions within a single insertion by applying Fraction#1 plan to Fraction#2 CT; (2) positional dwell error simulated from −5mm to 5mm in 1mm steps; (3) simulated temporal dwell error of 0.05s, 0.1s, 0.5s, and 1s. The original plans were based on point dose prescription, from which the volume covered by the prescription dose was generated as the pseudo target volume to study the 3D target dose effect. OARs were contoured. The point and volumetric dose errors were calculated by taking the differences between original and simulated plans. The correlations between the point and volumetric dose errors were analyzed. Results: For the most clinically relevant positional dwell uncertainty of 1mm, temporal uncertainty of 0.05s, and inter-fractional applicator displacement within the same insertion, the mean target D90 and V100 deviation were within 1%. Among these uncertainties, the applicator displacement showed the largest potential target coverage impact (2.6% on D90) as well as the OAR dose impact (2.5% and 3.4% on bladder D2cc and rectum D2cc). The Spearman correlation analysis shows a correlation coefficient of 0.43 with a p-value of 0.11 between target D90 coverage and H point dose. Conclusion: With the most clinically relevant positional and temporal dwell uncertainties and patient interfractional applicator displacement within the same insertion, the dose error is within clinical acceptable range. The lack of correlation between H point and 3D volumetric dose errors is a motivator for the use of 3D treatment planning in

  11. The MIT Integrated Global System Model: A facility for Assessing and Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.

    2013-12-01

    The world is facing major challenges that create tensions between human development and environmental sustenance. In facing these challenges, computer models are invaluable tools for addressing the need for probabilistic approaches to forecasting. To illustrate this, I use the MIT Integrated Global System Model framework (IGSM; http://globalchange.mit.edu ). The IGSM consists of a set of coupled sub-models of global economic and technological development and resultant emissions, and physical, dynamical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, land, ocean and ecosystems (natural and managed). Some of the sub-models have both complex and simplified versions available, with the choice of which version to use being guided by the questions being addressed. Some sub-models (e.g.urban air pollution) are reduced forms of complex ones created by probabilistic collocation with polynomial chaos bases. Given the significant uncertainties in the model components, it is highly desirable that forecasts be probabilistic. We achieve this by running 400-member ensembles (Latin hypercube sampling) with different choices for key uncertain variables and processes within the human and natural system model components (pdfs of inputs estimated by model-observation comparisons, literature surveys, or expert elicitation). The IGSM has recently been used for probabilistic forecasts of climate, each using 400-member ensembles: one ensemble assumes no explicit climate mitigation policy and others assume increasingly stringent policies involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels. These forecasts indicate clearly that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The value of such probability analyses for policy decision-making lies in their ability to compare relative (not just absolute) risks of various policies, which are less affected by the earth system model uncertainties. Given the uncertainties in forecasts, it is also clear that

  12. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

  13. Evaluation of pull production control strategies under uncertainty: An integrated fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aydin Torkabadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Just-In-Time (JIT production has continuously been considered by industrial practitioners and researchers as a leading strategy for the yet popular Lean production. Pull Production Control Policies (PPCPs are the major enablers of JIT that locally control the level of inventory by authorizing the production in each station. Aiming to improve the PPCPs, three authorization mechanisms: Kanban, constant-work-in-process (ConWIP, and a hybrid system, are evaluated by considering uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM methods are successful in evaluating alternatives with respect to several objectives. The proposed approach of this study applies the fuzzy set theory together with an integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP and a Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS method. Findings: The study finds that hybrid Kanban-ConWIP pull production control policies have a better performance in controlling the studied multi-layer multi-stage manufacturing and assembly system. Practical implications: To examine the approach a real case from automobile electro mechanical part production industry is studied. The production system consists of multiple levels of manufacturing, feeding a multi-stage assembly line with stochastic processing times to satisfy the changing demand. Originality/value: This study proposes the integrated Kanban-ConWIP hybrid pull control policies and implements several alternatives on a multi-stage and multi-layer manufacturing and assembly production system. An integrated Fuzzy AHP TOPSIS method is developed to evaluate the alternatives with respect to several JIT criteria.

  14. Analysis of decision fusion algorithms in handling uncertainties for integrated health monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zein-Sabatto, Saleh; Mikhail, Maged; Bodruzzaman, Mohammad; DeSimio, Martin; Derriso, Mark; Behbahani, Alireza

    2012-06-01

    It has been widely accepted that data fusion and information fusion methods can improve the accuracy and robustness of decision-making in structural health monitoring systems. It is arguably true nonetheless, that decision-level is equally beneficial when applied to integrated health monitoring systems. Several decisions at low-levels of abstraction may be produced by different decision-makers; however, decision-level fusion is required at the final stage of the process to provide accurate assessment about the health of the monitored system as a whole. An example of such integrated systems with complex decision-making scenarios is the integrated health monitoring of aircraft. Thorough understanding of the characteristics of the decision-fusion methodologies is a crucial step for successful implementation of such decision-fusion systems. In this paper, we have presented the major information fusion methodologies reported in the literature, i.e., probabilistic, evidential, and artificial intelligent based methods. The theoretical basis and characteristics of these methodologies are explained and their performances are analyzed. Second, candidate methods from the above fusion methodologies, i.e., Bayesian, Dempster-Shafer, and fuzzy logic algorithms are selected and their applications are extended to decisions fusion. Finally, fusion algorithms are developed based on the selected fusion methods and their performance are tested on decisions generated from synthetic data and from experimental data. Also in this paper, a modeling methodology, i.e. cloud model, for generating synthetic decisions is presented and used. Using the cloud model, both types of uncertainties; randomness and fuzziness, involved in real decision-making are modeled. Synthetic decisions are generated with an unbiased process and varying interaction complexities among decisions to provide for fair performance comparison of the selected decision-fusion algorithms. For verification purposes

  15. Software Uncertainty in Integrated Environmental Modelling: the role of Semantics and Open Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Rigo, Daniele

    2013-04-01

    Computational aspects increasingly shape environmental sciences [1]. Actually, transdisciplinary modelling of complex and uncertain environmental systems is challenging computational science (CS) and also the science-policy interface [2-7]. Large spatial-scale problems falling within this category - i.e. wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) [8-10] - often deal with factors (a) for which deep-uncertainty [2,11-13] may prevent usual statistical analysis of modelled quantities and need different ways for providing policy-making with science-based support. Here, practical recommendations are proposed for tempering a peculiar - not infrequently underestimated - source of uncertainty. Software errors in complex WSTMe may subtly affect the outcomes with possible consequences even on collective environmental decision-making. Semantic transparency in CS [2,8,10,14,15] and free software [16,17] are discussed as possible mitigations (b) . Software uncertainty, black-boxes and free software. Integrated natural resources modelling and management (INRMM) [29] frequently exploits chains of nontrivial data-transformation models (D- TM), each of them affected by uncertainties and errors. Those D-TM chains may be packaged as monolithic specialized models, maybe only accessible as black-box executables (if accessible at all) [50]. For end-users, black-boxes merely transform inputs in the final outputs, relying on classical peer-reviewed publications for describing the internal mechanism. While software tautologically plays a vital role in CS, it is often neglected in favour of more theoretical aspects. This paradox has been provocatively described as "the invisibility of software in published science. Almost all published papers required some coding, but almost none mention software, let alone include or link to source code" [51]. Recently, this primacy of theory over reality [52-54] has been challenged by new emerging hybrid approaches [55] and by the

  16. Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puncher, M; Zhang, W; Harrison, J D; Wakeford, R

    2017-06-26

    Assessments of risk to a specific population group resulting from internal exposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of the appropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dose coefficients used as a radiation protection device for the specified exposure pathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the associated risk is important for informing judgments on reliability; a derived uncertainty factor, UF, is an estimate of the 95% probable geometric difference between the best risk estimate and the nominal risk and is a useful tool for making this assessment. This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis to quantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to radioiodine by members of the public, specifically 1, 10 and 20-year old females from the population of England and Wales. Best estimates of thyroid cancer incidence risk (lifetime attributable risk) are calculated for ingestion or inhalation of 129 I and 131 I, accounting for uncertainties in biokinetic model and cancer risk model parameter values. These estimates are compared with the equivalent ICRP derived nominal age-, sex- and population-averaged estimates of excess thyroid cancer incidence to obtain UFs. Derived UF values for ingestion or inhalation of 131 I for 1 year, 10-year and 20-year olds are around 28, 12 and 6, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 103 nominal values, and 9, 7 and 14, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 60 values. Broadly similar results were obtained for 129 I. The uncertainties on risk estimates are largely determined by uncertainties on risk model parameters rather than uncertainties on biokinetic model parameters. An examination of the sensitivity of the results to the risk models and populations used in the calculations show variations in the central estimates of risk of a factor of around 2-3. It is assumed that the direct proportionality of excess thyroid cancer

  17. Accounting for shared and unshared dosimetric uncertainties in the dose response for ultrasound-detected thyroid nodules after exposure to radioactive fallout.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land, Charles E; Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Bouville, André; Beck, Harold; Luckyanov, Nicholas; Weinstock, Robert M; Simon, Steven L

    2015-02-01

    Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point "best estimates". In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population

  18. [Determination of the integral dose in computer tomography of the neurocranium].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahim, H; Hofmann, W; Grobovschek, M; Mandl, H

    1985-12-01

    The amount of exposure of the cranium is calculated on the basis of the measured dose distribution in craniocaudal direction and on the axial planes of the Alderson phantom. The integral dose of the cranium and the local dose at sensitive organs are used as a measure of radiation exposure.

  19. The effect of an integrated education model on anxiety and uncertainty in patients undergoing cervical disc herniation surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Mei-Fang; Tung, Heng-Hsin; Clinciu, Daniel L; Huang, Jing-Shan; Iqbal, Usman; Chang, Chih-Ju; Su, I-Chang; Lai, Fu-Chih; Li, Yu-Chuan

    2016-09-01

    Educating patients about receiving surgical procedures is becoming an important issue, as it can reduce anxiety and uncertainty while helping to hasten decisions for undergoing time sensitive surgeries. We evaluated a new integrated education model for patients undergoing cervical disc herniation surgery using a quasi-experimental design. The participants were grouped into either the new integrated educational model (n = 32) or the standard group (n = 32) on the basis of their ward numbers assigned at admission. Anxiety, uncertainty, and patient satisfaction were measured before (pre-test) and after the educational intervention (post-test-1) and post-surgery (post-test-2) to assess the effectiveness of the model in this intervention. We found that the generalized estimating equation modeling demonstrated this new integrated education model was more effective than the conventional model in reducing patients' anxiety and uncertainty (p approach to individual health. This novel systemic educational model enhances patient's understanding of the medical condition and surgery while promoting patient-caregiver interaction for optimal patient health outcomes. We present a comprehensive and consistent platform for educational purposes in patients undergoing surgery as well as reducing the psychological burden from anxiety and uncertainty. Integrating medicine, nursing, and new technologies into an e-practice and e-learning platform offers the potential of easier understanding and usage. It could revolutionize patient education in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A research on verification of the CONTAIN CODE model and the uncertainty reduction method for containment integrity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Hong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Moo Hwan; Kang, Seok Hun; Seo, Kyoung Woo [Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-03-15

    The final goal of this research is to verify methodology for evaluating more accurately the integrity of containment and develop the methodology to reduce the uncertainty using the data of the operating PWR, KSNPP, KNGR during a severe accident. Therefore, the research selected an indispensable factor about DCH, and analysed sensitivity test at this year.

  1. An analysis of uncertainty and of dependence on season of year of ingestion population dose arising from design basis accidents in advanced thermal reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nair, S.; Ponting, A.C.

    1985-03-01

    The results of a detailed study of ingestion collective dose from five limiting PWR design basis releases are presented, the PWR being chosen as being typical of an advanced thermal reactor for which source terms are readily available. The ingestion collective dose was calculated for a range of wind direction/weather scenarios for releases from a typical U.K. rural and a U.K. semi-urban site and scenarios identified where the ingestion pathway was of potential significance. The dependence of the ingestion collective dose for these cases on the season of year when the release occurs was investigated. An analysis was carried out of the uncertainty in the ''worst case'' ingestion calculations arising from uncertainties in foodchain input parameters. An efficient but comprehensive set of dynamic foodchain computer models was produced and the literature surveyed to produce probability distribution functions (PDF's) for all relevant independent input data items. These were used to produce output PDF's for food contamination levels and for ingestion collective dose from the five releases. Finally, the study has highlighted several areas central to ingestion collective dose assessments where the available data are inadequate. This led to the formulation of a set of future research requirements which will need to be met both to obtain a better fundamental understanding of foodchain transfer and to reduce uncertainties in ingestion collective dose assessments. (author)

  2. Integrating uncertainties to the combined environmental and economic assessment of algal biorefineries: A Monte Carlo approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-López, Paula; Montazeri, Mahdokht; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, María Teresa; Eckelman, Matthew J

    2018-06-01

    The economic and environmental performance of microalgal processes has been widely analyzed in recent years. However, few studies propose an integrated process-based approach to evaluate economic and environmental indicators simultaneously. Biodiesel is usually the single product and the effect of environmental benefits of co-products obtained in the process is rarely discussed. In addition, there is wide variation of the results due to inherent variability of some parameters as well as different assumptions in the models and limited knowledge about the processes. In this study, two standardized models were combined to provide an integrated simulation tool allowing the simultaneous estimation of economic and environmental indicators from a unique set of input parameters. First, a harmonized scenario was assessed to validate the joint environmental and techno-economic model. The findings were consistent with previous assessments. In a second stage, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to evaluate the influence of variable and uncertain parameters in the model output, as well as the correlations between the different outputs. The simulation showed a high probability of achieving favorable environmental performance for the evaluated categories and a minimum selling price ranging from $11gal -1 to $106gal -1 . Greenhouse gas emissions and minimum selling price were found to have the strongest positive linear relationship, whereas eutrophication showed weak correlations with the other indicators (namely greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative energy demand and minimum selling price). Process parameters (especially biomass productivity and lipid content) were the main source of variation, whereas uncertainties linked to the characterization methods and economic parameters had limited effect on the results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

  4. An integrated location inventory routing model in supply chain network designing under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojat Angazi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study an integrated model is proposed for the location inventory routing problem under uncertainty. This problem involves determining the location of distribution centers (DCs in a three echelon supply chain. The DCs receive orders from the customer and according to a continuous review inventory replenishment policy place orders to the supplier. The products are directly shipped from the supplier to the DCs. The vehicles start from the DCs to fulfill the demands of the customers. Determining the routing of the vehicles is one of the decisions involved in this problem. The demands of customers are stochastically distributed and the capacity of DCs are limited. If one of the DCs undergo a disruption and is unable to fulfill the demands of the customers, shortage may occur. Moreover in the proposed model the shortage is considered as partial backlogging. This means that if shortage occurs, some of the orders result in lost sales and other orders are fulfilled in the next period. In order to optimally solve the proposed model a nonlinear integer programming (INLP model is developed. However, since the problem is NP-hard, the mathematical formulation cannot be efficiently solved for large sized instances of the problem. Therefore an outer approximation method is developed to solve the problem more efficiently. The computational results show the efficiency of the proposed method.

  5. Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO 2 emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO 2 emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives

  6. Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Elin [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)], E-mail: elin.svensson@chalmers.se; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

    2009-03-15

    This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives.

  7. Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. A pulp mill example

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

    2009-03-15

    This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives. (author)

  8. Device for simulation of integral dose distribution in multifield radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belyakov, E K; Voronin, V V; Kolosova, V F; Moskalev, A I; Marova, Yu M; Stavitskii, R V; Yarovoi, V S

    1974-11-15

    Described is a device for simulation of the sum dose distribution at multifield radiation therapy; the device comprises a mechanical unit on which the emission sources and detectors are mounted, an electromechanical scanning equipment, amplifiers, an adder, a position sensor and a recording instrument. The device suggested raises an accuracy of a sick man radiation program elaboration at a remote multifield radiation therapy, permits to estimate the irradiated medium heterogeneity and beam shaper influence on the sum dose distribution and also ensured the information on the sum dose distribution of the relative or absolute units. Additional filters simulating heterogeneity and beam shaping conditions of ionizing radiation may be mounted between the quantum emission sources and detectors, and an amplifier with a variable amplification factor may be placed between the adders and printers. Thus it is possible to obtain a sum dose distribution at static methods of the remote radiation therapy at a high degree of accuracy (up to +-10%).

  9. Model structural uncertainty quantification and hydrogeophysical data integration using airborne electromagnetic data (Invited)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minsley, Burke; Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen

    of airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to estimate large-scale model structural geometry, i.e. the spatial distribution of different lithological units based on assumed or estimated resistivity-lithology relationships, and the uncertainty in those structures given imperfect measurements. Geophysically derived...... estimates of model structural uncertainty are then combined with hydrologic observations to assess the impact of model structural error on hydrologic calibration and prediction errors. Using a synthetic numerical model, we describe a sequential hydrogeophysical approach that: (1) uses Bayesian Markov chain...... Monte Carlo (McMC) methods to produce a robust estimate of uncertainty in electrical resistivity parameter values, (2) combines geophysical parameter uncertainty estimates with borehole observations of lithology to produce probabilistic estimates of model structural uncertainty over the entire AEM...

  10. Analysis of algal bloom risk with uncertainties in lakes by integrating self-organizing map and fuzzy information theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiuwen; Rui, Han; Li, Weifeng; Zhang, Yanhui

    2014-06-01

    Algal blooms are a serious problem in waters, which damage aquatic ecosystems and threaten drinking water safety. However, the outbreak mechanism of algal blooms is very complex with great uncertainty, especially for large water bodies where environmental conditions have obvious variation in both space and time. This study developed an innovative method which integrated a self-organizing map (SOM) and fuzzy information diffusion theory to comprehensively analyze algal bloom risks with uncertainties. The Lake Taihu was taken as study case and the long-term (2004-2010) on-site monitoring data were used. The results showed that algal blooms in Taihu Lake were classified into four categories and exhibited obvious spatial-temporal patterns. The lake was mainly characterized by moderate bloom but had high uncertainty, whereas severe blooms with low uncertainty were observed in the northwest part of the lake. The study gives insight on the spatial-temporal dynamics of algal blooms, and should help government and decision-makers outline policies and practices on bloom monitoring and prevention. The developed method provides a promising approach to estimate algal bloom risks under uncertainties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Integrated Worker Radiation Dose Assessment for the K Basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    NELSON, J.V.

    1999-01-01

    This report documents an assessment of the radiation dose workers at the K Basins are expected to receive in the process of removing spent nuclear fuel from the storage basins. The K Basins (K East and K West) are located in the Hanford 100K Area

  12. Integrating Organ Motion and Setup Uncertainty into Optimization of Modulated Electron Beam Treatment of Breast Cancer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pawlicki, Todd

    2003-01-01

    ... of modulated electron radiotherapy (MERT) treatment of the breast. The premise is that MERT treatments will deliver a more conformal dose to the breast while minimizing the dose to normal tissues over conventional photon techniques...

  13. Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Xuesong

    2011-11-01

    Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (BNN-PIS) to incorporate the uncertainties associated with parameters, inputs, and structures into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameters and model structures. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters shows that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of and interactions among different uncertainty sources is expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  14. Assessing temporal uncertainties in integrated groundwater management: an opportunity for change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anglade, J. A.; Billen, G.; Garnier, J.

    2013-12-01

    aquifer of about 25 years. Uncertainties about the time delay for positive results created a shock among the involved actors that motivated them to re-launch the dialogue, and enter into a new phase of the iterative decision making process to determine up to date long term strategies. Secondly, a diagnostic of recommended solutions in the existing agreements based on the soil surface balance method has raised alert about the inefficiency of agricultural best practices set up to deliver sub-root water concentration meeting the European drinking standard. According to the scientific committee, only a shift to organic farming could reconcile water and food production, with the pre-condition that this agricultural transition takes place in a territorial project which goes beyond the catchment borders. This proposal offers possibilities for re-structuring the issue for the different sides. This example underlines that integrated groundwater management could impose a time delay of several decades to cope with complex biophysical processes, construct coordination and modify individual practices. This time needed to build collaborative agreement is all the more difficult to control as part of an evolving regulatory framework.

  15. Uncertainties associated to the using of alanine/EPR for the dose interval in the radiotherapy; Incertezas associadas na utilizacao da alanina/RPE para o intervalo de dose da radioterapia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues Junior, O.; Campos, L. L. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The High Doses Laboratory of IPEN is developing a dosimetric system for high doses based on Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) of free radical radiation induced on alanine. The objective of this work is to present the efforts towards to improve the measure accuracy for doses in the range between 1-10 Gy. This system could be used as reference by radiotherapy services, as much in the quality control of the equipment, as for routine accompaniment of more complex handling where the total doses can reach some grays. The main problem for routine implantation is the calibration and the traceability of the system and many errors sources affects the accuracy of the measurements. In this work are discussed same aspects related on the uncertainty evaluation associated with high dose measurement using alanine and EPR. (author)

  16. Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Diallo, I.; Samand, A. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif, (France); Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Hawkins, M. [Centre for Childhood Cancer Survivor Studies, University of Birmingham, Birmingham (United Kingdom); Oberlin, O. [Paediatrics Department, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Lefkopoulos, D. [Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France)

    2006-07-01

    In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)

  17. Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F.; Diallo, I.; Samand, A.; Hawkins, M.; Oberlin, O.; Lefkopoulos, D.

    2006-01-01

    In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)

  18. Integral dose investigation of non-coplanar treatment beam geometries in radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Dan; Dong, Peng; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke, E-mail: ksheng@mednet.ucla.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States); Long, Troy; Romeijn, Edwin [Department of Industrial and Operations, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Purpose: Automated planning and delivery of non-coplanar plans such as 4π radiotherapy involving a large number of fields have been developed to take advantage of the newly available automated couch and gantry on C-arm gantry linacs. However, there is an increasing concern regarding the potential changes in the integral dose that needs to be investigated. Methods: A digital torso phantom and 22 lung and liver stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) patients were included in the study. The digital phantom was constructed as a water equivalent elliptical cylinder with a major axis length of 35.4 cm and minor axis of 23.6 cm. A 4.5 cm diameter target was positioned at varying depths along the major axis. Integral doses from intensity modulated, non-coplanar beams forming a conical pattern were compared against the equally spaced coplanar beam plans. Integral dose dependence on the phantom geometry and the beam number was also quantified. For the patient plans, the non-coplanar and coplanar beams and fluences were optimized using a column generation and pricing approach and compared against clinical VMAT plans using two full (lung) or partial coplanar arcs (liver) entering at the side proximal to the tumor. Both the average dose to the normal tissue volume and the total volumes receiving greater than 2 Gy (V2) and 5 Gy (V5) were evaluated and compared. Results: The ratio of integral dose from the non-coplanar and coplanar plans depended on the tumor depth for the phantom; for tumors shallower than 10 cm, the non-coplanar integral doses were lower than coplanar integral doses for non-coplanar angles less than 60°. Similar patterns were observed in the patient plans. The smallest non-coplanar integral doses were observed for tumor 6–8 cm deep. For the phantom, the integral dose was independent of the number of beams, consistent with the liver SBRT patients but the lung SBRT patients showed slight increase in the integral dose when more beams were used. Larger

  19. DITTY - a computer program for calculating population dose integrated over ten thousand years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.; Peloquin, R.A.; Strenge, D.L.

    1986-03-01

    The computer program DITTY (Dose Integrated Over Ten Thousand Years) was developed to determine the collective dose from long term nuclear waste disposal sites resulting from the ground-water pathways. DITTY estimates the time integral of collective dose over a ten-thousand-year period for time-variant radionuclide releases to surface waters, wells, or the atmosphere. This document includes the following information on DITTY: a description of the mathematical models, program designs, data file requirements, input preparation, output interpretations, sample problems, and program-generated diagnostic messages

  20. Integration method of 3D MR spectroscopy into treatment planning system for glioblastoma IMRT dose painting with integrated simultaneous boost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ken, Soléakhéna; Cassol, Emmanuelle; Delannes, Martine; Celsis, Pierre; Cohen-Jonathan, Elizabeth Moyal; Laprie, Anne; Vieillevigne, Laure; Franceries, Xavier; Simon, Luc; Supper, Caroline; Lotterie, Jean-Albert; Filleron, Thomas; Lubrano, Vincent; Berry, Isabelle

    2013-01-01

    To integrate 3D MR spectroscopy imaging (MRSI) in the treatment planning system (TPS) for glioblastoma dose painting to guide simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). For sixteen glioblastoma patients, we have simulated three types of dosimetry plans, one conventional plan of 60-Gy in 3D conformational radiotherapy (3D-CRT), one 60-Gy plan in IMRT and one 72-Gy plan in SIB-IMRT. All sixteen MRSI metabolic maps were integrated into TPS, using normalization with color-space conversion and threshold-based segmentation. The fusion between the metabolic maps and the planning CT scans were assessed. Dosimetry comparisons were performed between the different plans of 60-Gy 3D-CRT, 60-Gy IMRT and 72-Gy SIB-IMRT, the last plan was targeted on MRSI abnormalities and contrast enhancement (CE). Fusion assessment was performed for 160 transformations. It resulted in maximum differences <1.00 mm for translation parameters and ≤1.15° for rotation. Dosimetry plans of 72-Gy SIB-IMRT and 60-Gy IMRT showed a significantly decreased maximum dose to the brainstem (44.00 and 44.30 vs. 57.01 Gy) and decreased high dose-volumes to normal brain (19 and 20 vs. 23% and 7 and 7 vs. 12%) compared to 60-Gy 3D-CRT (p < 0.05). Delivering standard doses to conventional target and higher doses to new target volumes characterized by MRSI and CE is now possible and does not increase dose to organs at risk. MRSI and CE abnormalities are now integrated for glioblastoma SIB-IMRT, concomitant with temozolomide, in an ongoing multi-institutional phase-III clinical trial. Our method of MR spectroscopy maps integration to TPS is robust and reliable; integration to neuronavigation systems with this method could also improve glioblastoma resection or guide biopsies

  1. Tolerance of uncertainty: Conceptual analysis, integrative model, and implications for healthcare

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hillen, Marij A.; Gutheil, Caitlin M.; Strout, Tania D.; Smets, Ellen M. A.; Han, Paul K. J.

    2017-01-01

    Rationale: Uncertainty tolerance (UT) is an important, well-studied phenomenon in health care and many other important domains of life, yet its conceptualization and measurement by researchers in various disciplines have varied substantially and its essential nature remains unclear. Objective: The

  2. FURTHER STUDIES ON UNCERTAINTY, CONFOUNDING, AND VALIDATION OF THE DOSES IN THE TECHA RIVER DOSIMETRY SYSTEM: Concluding Progress Report on the Second Phase of Project 1.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Degteva, M. O.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Napier, Bruce A.

    2009-10-23

    This is the concluding Progress Report for Project 1.1 of the U.S./Russia Joint Coordinating Committee on Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER). An overwhelming majority of our work this period has been to complete our primary obligation of providing a new version of the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS), which we call TRDS-2009D; the D denotes deterministic. This system provides estimates of individual doses to members of the Extended Techa River Cohort (ETRC) and post-natal doses to members of the Techa River Offspring Cohort (TROC). The latter doses were calculated with use of the TRDS-2009D. The doses for the members of the ETRC have been made available to the American and Russian epidemiologists in September for their studies in deriving radiogenic risk factors. Doses for members of the TROC are being provided to European and Russian epidemiologists, as partial input for studies of risk in this population. Two of our original goals for the completion of this nine-year phase of Project 1.1 were not completed. These are completion of TRDS-2009MC, which was to be a Monte Carlo version of TRDS-2009 that could be used for more explicit analysis of the impact of uncertainty in doses on uncertainty in radiogenic risk factors. The second incomplete goal was to be the provision of household specific external doses (rather than village average). This task was far along, but had to be delayed due to the lead investigator’s work on consideration of a revised source term.

  3. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

  4. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  5. An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2015-04-01

    The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

  6. Reliability of the ICRP's dose coefficients for members of the public: IV. Basis of the human alimentary tract model and uncertainties in model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.; Harrison, J.; Phipps, A.

    2007-01-01

    The biokinetic and dosimetric model of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract applied in current documents of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) was developed in the mid-1960's. The model was based on features of a reference adult male and was first used by the ICRP in Publication 30, Limits for Intakes of Radionuclides by Workers (Part 1, 1979). In the late 1990's an ICRP task group was appointed to develop a biokinetic and dosimetric model of the alimentary tract that reflects updated information and addresses current needs in radiation protection. The new age-specific and gender-specific model, called the Human Alimentary Tract Model (HATM), has been completed and will replace the GI model of Publication 30 in upcoming ICRP documents. This paper discusses the basis for the structure and parameter values of the HATM, summarises the uncertainties associated with selected features and types of predictions of the HATM and examines the sensitivity of dose estimates to these uncertainties for selected radionuclides. Emphasis is on generic biokinetic features of the HATM, particularly transit times through the lumen of the alimentary tract, but key dosimetric features of the model are outlined, and the sensitivity of tissue dose estimates to uncertainties in dosimetric as well as biokinetic features of the HATM are examined for selected radionuclides. (authors)

  7. A research on verification of the CONTAIN CODE model and the uncertainty reduction method for containment integrity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae-Hong; Kim, Moo-Hwan; Bae, Seong-Won; Byun, Sang-Chul [Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-03-15

    The final objectives of this study are to establish the way of measuring the integrity of containment building structures and safety analysis in the period of a postuIated severe accidents and to decrease the uncertainty of these methods. For that object, the CONTAIN 1.2 codes model for analyzing the severe accidents phenomena and the heat transfer between the air inside the containment buildings and inner walls have been reviewed and analyzed. For the double containment wall provided to the next generation nuclear reactor, which is different to the previous type of containment, the temperature and pressure rising history were calculated and compared to the results of previous ones.

  8. Integrated task plans for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, June 1992 through May 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipler, D.B.

    1993-09-01

    The purpose of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is to estimate radiation doses from Hanford Site operations since 1944 to representative individuals. The primary objective of work to be performed through May 1994 is to determine the project's appropriate scope: space, time, radionuclides, pathways and representative individuals; determine the project's appropriate level of accuracy/level of uncertainty in dose estimates; complete model and data development; and estimate doses for the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study and representative individuals. A major objective of the HEDR Project is to estimate doses to the thyroid of individuals who were exposed to iodine-131. A principal pathway for many of these individuals was milk from cows that ate vegetation contaminated by iodine-131 released into the air from Hanford facilities. The plan for June 1992 through May 1994 has been prepared based on activities and budgets approved by the Technical Steering Panel (TSP) at its meetings on January 7--9, 1993 and February 25--26, 1993. The activities can be divided into three broad categories: (1) computer code and data development activities, (2) calculation of doses, and (3) technical and communication support to the TSP and the TSP Native American Working Group (NAWG). The following activities will be conducted to accomplish project objectives through May 1994

  9. Enchanced total dose damage in junction field effect transistors and related linear integrated circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flament, O.; Autran, J.L.; Roche, P.; Leray, J.L.; Musseau, O.

    1996-01-01

    Enhanced total dose damage of Junction Field-effect Transistors (JFETs) due to low dose rate and/or elevated temperature has been investigated for elementary p-channel structures fabricated on bulk and SOI substrates as well as for related linear integrated circuits. All these devices were fabricated with conventional junction isolation (field oxide). Large increases in damage have been revealed by performing high temperature and/or low dose rate irradiations. These results are consistent with previous studies concerning bipolar field oxides under low-field conditions. They suggest that the transport of radiation-induced holes through the oxide is the underlying mechanism. Such an enhanced degradation must be taken into account for low dose rate effects on linear integrated circuits

  10. An integrated bi-level optimization model for air quality management of Beijing's energy system under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Nie, S

    2018-05-15

    In this study, an interval chance-constrained bi-level programming (ICBP) method is developed for air quality management of municipal energy system under uncertainty. ICBP can deal with uncertainties presented as interval values and probability distributions as well as examine the risk of violating constraints. Besides, a leader-follower decision strategy is incorporated into the optimization process where two decision makers with different goals and preferences are involved. To solve the proposed model, a bi-level interactive algorithm based on satisfactory degree is introduced into the decision-making processes. Then, an ICBP based energy and environmental systems (ICBP-EES) model is formulated for Beijing, in which air quality index (AQI) is used for evaluating the integrated air quality of multiple pollutants. Result analysis can help different stakeholders adjust their tolerances to achieve the overall satisfaction of EES planning for the study city. Results reveal that natural gas is the main source for electricity-generation and heating that could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing in future. Results also disclose that PM 10 is the major contributor to AQI. These findings can help decision makers to identify desired alternatives for EES planning and provide useful information for regional air quality management under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    González-Aparicio, I.; Zucker, A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Reduction wind power forecasting uncertainty for day ahead and intraday markets. • Statistical relationship between total load and wind power generation. • Accurately forecast expected revenues from wind producer’s perspective. - Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules require balancing of a generator’s position within a day. Short term products that are traded on power and/or reserve markets have been developed for this purpose, providing opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. The value of flexibility is typically modelled using stochastic scenario extensions of dispatch models which requires, as a first step, understanding the nature of forecast uncertainties. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closure of the day ahead and the opening of the first intraday session using Spain as an example. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010–2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability by applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of uncertainty, and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the intra-day price. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of electricity generated from Renewable Energy Sources scenarios. This methodology could help a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.

  12. Handling Uncertainty in Social Lending Credit Risk Prediction with a Choquet Fuzzy Integral Model

    OpenAIRE

    Namvar, Anahita; Naderpour, Mohsen

    2018-01-01

    As one of the main business models in the financial technology field, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has disrupted traditional financial services by providing an online platform for lending money that has remarkably reduced financial costs. However, the inherent uncertainty in P2P loans can result in huge financial losses for P2P platforms. Therefore, accurate risk prediction is critical to the success of P2P lending platforms. Indeed, even a small improvement in credit risk prediction would be o...

  13. The effect of source-axis distance on integral dose: implications for IMRT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keall, P.

    2001-01-01

    The source-axis distance (SAD) is a treatment machine design parameter that affects integral dose, dose rate and patient clearance. The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of source-axis distance on integral dose for conformal arc therapy. This work is part of a larger project to determine the ideal characteristics of a dedicated IMRT machine. The sensitivity of SAD to beam energy, PTV size, body size and PTV position were determined for conformal arc therapy. For the calculations performed here it was assumed that dose equals terma. The integral dose ratio (IDR) was used to quantify the calculation results. It was found that the IDR increases as both SAD and photon energy increase, though the dependence of IDR on SAD decreases as energy increases. The PTV size was found to have a negligible effect on the relationship between the SAD and IDR, however the body size does affect the relationship between the SAD and IDR. The position of the PTV within the body also affects the IDR. From dosimetric considerations alone, the larger the SAD, the better the possible dose distribution. The IDR for a very large SAD is increased by approximately 5% when compared with the IDR for 100 cm SAD. Similarly, the IDR for 100 cm SAD is approximately 5% higher than the IDR at 50 cm SAD. Copyright (2001) Australasian College of Physical Scientists and Engineers in Medicine

  14. Energy and integrated dose dependence of MOSFET dosimeter for clinical electron beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manigandan, D.; Bharanidharan, G.; Aruna, P.; Ganesan, S.; Tamil Kumar, T.; Rai

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the sensitivity (mV/cGy) and integral dose dependence of a MOSFET detector for different clinical electron beams was studied. Calibrated clinical electron beams (Varian 2100) were used for the exposure. A Markus type parallel plate chamber was used for the absolute dose measurements. In order to study the sensitivity of a MOSFET, the response of the ion chamber and MOSFET for the absorbed dose of 100 cGy was measured. The sensitivity of the MOSFET was then expressed as mV/cGy. Sensitivity was measured for 4-18 MeV electron beams. (author)

  15. Transforming Medical Assessment: Integrating Uncertainty Into the Evaluation of Clinical Reasoning in Medical Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Suzette; Lemay, Jean-Francois

    2017-06-01

    In an age where practicing physicians have access to an overwhelming volume of clinical information and are faced with increasingly complex medical decisions, the ability to execute sound clinical reasoning is essential to optimal patient care. The authors propose two concepts that are philosophically paramount to the future assessment of clinical reasoning in medicine: assessment in the context of "uncertainty" (when, despite all of the information that is available, there is still significant doubt as to the best diagnosis, investigation, or treatment), and acknowledging that it is entirely possible (and reasonable) to have more than "one correct answer." The purpose of this article is to highlight key elements related to these two core concepts and discuss genuine barriers that currently exist on the pathway to creating such assessments. These include acknowledging situations of uncertainty, creating clear frameworks that define progressive levels of clinical reasoning skills, providing validity evidence to increase the defensibility of such assessments, considering the comparative feasibility with other forms of assessment, and developing strategies to evaluate the impact of these assessment methods on future learning and practice. The authors recommend that concerted efforts be directed toward these key areas to help advance the field of clinical reasoning assessment, improve the clinical care decisions made by current and future physicians, and have positive outcomes for patients. It is anticipated that these and subsequent efforts will aid in reaching the goal of making future assessment in medical education more representative of current-day clinical reasoning and decision making.

  16. Independent dose calculation in IMRT for the Tps Iplan using the Clarkson modified integral

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adrada, A.; Tello, Z.; Garrigo, E.; Venencia, D.

    2014-08-01

    Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) treatments require a quality assurance (Q A) specific patient before delivery. These controls include the experimental verification in dose phantom of the total plan as well as dose distributions. The use of independent dose calculation (IDC) is used in 3D-Crt treatments; however its application in IMRT requires the implementation of an algorithm that allows considering a non-uniform intensity beam. The purpose of this work was to develop IDC software in IMRT with MLC using the algorithm proposed by Kung (Kung et al. 2000). The software was done using Matlab programming. The Clarkson modified integral was implemented on each flowing, applying concentric rings for the dose determination. From the integral of each field was calculated the dose anywhere. One time finished a planning; all data are exported to a phantom where a Q A plan is generated. On this is calculated the half dose in a representative volume of the ionization chamber and the dose at the center of it. Until now 230 IMRT planning were analyzed carried out ??in the treatment planning system (Tps) Iplan. For each one of them Q A plan was generated, were calculated and compared calculated dose with the Tps, IDC system and measurement with ionization chamber. The average difference between measured and calculated dose with the IDC system was 0.4% ± 2.2% [-6.8%, 6.4%]. The difference between the measured and the calculated doses by the pencil-beam algorithm (Pb) of Tps was 2.6% ± 1.41% [-2.0%, 5.6%] and with the Monte Carlo algorithm was 0.4% ± 1.5% [-4.9%, 3.7%]. The differences of the carried out software are comparable to the obtained with the ionization chamber and Tps in Monte Carlo mode. (author)

  17. High-dose simultaneously integrated breast boost using intensity-modulated radiotherapy and inverse optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurkmans, Coen W.; Meijer, Gert J.; Vliet-Vroegindeweij, Corine van; Sangen, Maurice J. van der; Cassee, Jorien

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Recently a Phase III randomized trial has started comparing a boost of 16 Gy as part of whole-breast irradiation to a high boost of 26 Gy in young women. Our main aim was to develop an efficient simultaneously integrated boost (SIB) technique for the high-dose arm of the trial. Methods and Materials: Treatment planning was performed for 5 left-sided and 5 right-sided tumors. A tangential field intensity-modulated radiotherapy technique added to a sequentially planned 3-field boost (SEQ) was compared with a simultaneously planned technique (SIB) using inverse optimization. Normalized total dose (NTD)-corrected dose volume histogram parameters were calculated and compared. Results: The intended NTD was produced by 31 fractions of 1.66 Gy to the whole breast and 2.38 Gy to the boost volume. The average volume of the PTV-breast and PTV-boost receiving more than 95% of the prescribed dose was 97% or more for both techniques. Also, the mean lung dose and mean heart dose did not differ much between the techniques, with on average 3.5 Gy and 2.6 Gy for the SEQ and 3.8 Gy and 2.6 Gy for the SIB, respectively. However, the SIB resulted in a significantly more conformal irradiation of the PTV-boost. The volume of the PTV-breast, excluding the PTV-boost, receiving a dose higher than 95% of the boost dose could be reduced considerably using the SIB as compared with the SEQ from 129 cc (range, 48-262 cc) to 58 cc (range, 30-102 cc). Conclusions: A high-dose simultaneously integrated breast boost technique has been developed. The unwanted excessive dose to the breast was significantly reduced

  18. Integrated offering strategy for profit enhancement of distributed resources and demand response in microgrids considering system uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shayeghi, H.; Sobhani, B.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Modelling mathematical integration of the proposed central bidding strategy for microgrids. • Considering and modelling the intra-market for adjusting the energy imbalances. • Analyzing effect of uncertainty of demand response and imbalance prices in profit of MG components. - Abstract: Due to the uncertain nature and limited predictability of wind and PV generated power, these resources participating in most of electricity markets are subject to significant deviation penalties during market settlements. In order to balance the unpredicted wind and PV power variations, system operators need to schedule additional reserves. This paper presents the optimal integrated participation model of wind and PV energy including demand response, storage devices, and dispatchable distributed generations in microgrids or virtual microgrids to increase their revenues in the intra-market. This market is considered 3–7 h before the delivered time, so that the amount of the contracted energy could be updated to reduce the produced power deviation of microgrid. A stochastic programming approach is considered in the development of the proposed bidding strategies for microgrid producers and loads. The optimization model is characterized by making the analysis of several scenarios and simultaneously treating three kinds of uncertainty including wind and PV power, intra-market, and imbalance prices. In order to predict these uncertainty variables, a neuro-fuzzy based approach has been applied. Historic data are used to forecast future prices and wind and PV power production in the adjustment markets. Also, a probabilistic approach based on the error of forecasted and real historic data is considered for estimating the future IM and imbalance prices of wind and PV produced power. Further, a test case is applied to example the microgrid using the Spanish market rules during one week, month, and year period to illustrate the potential benefits of the proposed joint

  19. Review of Polynomial Chaos-Based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Modern Integrated Circuits

    OpenAIRE

    Arun Kaintura; Tom Dhaene; Domenico Spina

    2018-01-01

    Advances in manufacturing process technology are key ensembles for the production of integrated circuits in the sub-micrometer region. It is of paramount importance to assess the effects of tolerances in the manufacturing process on the performance of modern integrated circuits. The polynomial chaos expansion has emerged as a suitable alternative to standard Monte Carlo-based methods that are accurate, but computationally cumbersome. This paper provides an overview of the most recent developm...

  20. Integrated Task Plans for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, FY 1992 through May 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipler, D.B.

    1992-09-01

    The purpose of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is to estimate radiation doses from Hanford Site operations since 1944 to populations and individuals. The primary objective of work to be performed through May 1994 is to (1) determine the project's appropriate scope (space, time, radionuclides, pathways and individuals/population groups), (2) determine the project's appropriate level of accuracy (level of uncertainty in dose estimates) for the project, (3) complete model and data development, and (4) estimate doses for the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study (HTDS), representative individuals, and special populations as described herein. The plan for FY 1992 through May 1994 has been prepared based on activities and budgets approved by the Technical Steering Panel (TSP) at its meetings on August 19--20, 1991, and April 23--25, 1992. The activities can be divided into four broad categories: (1) model and data evaluation activities, (2)additional dose estimates, (3) model and data development activities, and (4)technical and communication support

  1. Uncertainties in planned dose due to the limited voxel size of the planning CT when treating lung tumors with proton therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espana, Samuel; Paganetti, Harald

    2011-01-01

    Dose calculation for lung tumors can be challenging due to the low density and the fine structure of the geometry. The latter is not fully considered in the CT image resolution used in treatment planning causing the prediction of a more homogeneous tissue distribution. In proton therapy, this could result in predicting an unrealistically sharp distal dose falloff, i.e. an underestimation of the distal dose falloff degradation. The goal of this work was the quantification of such effects. Two computational phantoms resembling a two-dimensional heterogeneous random lung geometry and a swine lung were considered applying a variety of voxel sizes for dose calculation. Monte Carlo simulations were used to compare the dose distributions predicted with the voxel size typically used for the treatment planning procedure with those expected to be delivered using the finest resolution. The results show, for example, distal falloff position differences of up to 4 mm between planned and expected dose at the 90% level for the heterogeneous random lung (assuming treatment plan on a 2 x 2 x 2.5 mm 3 grid). For the swine lung, differences of up to 38 mm were seen when airways are present in the beam path when the treatment plan was done on a 0.8 x 0.8 x 2.4 mm 3 grid. The two-dimensional heterogeneous random lung phantom apparently does not describe the impact of the geometry adequately because of the lack of heterogeneities in the axial direction. The differences observed in the swine lung between planned and expected dose are presumably due to the poor axial resolution of the CT images used in clinical routine. In conclusion, when assigning margins for treatment planning for lung cancer, proton range uncertainties due to the heterogeneous lung geometry and CT image resolution need to be considered.

  2. A computer program for uncertainty analysis integrating regression and Bayesian methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Hill, Mary C.; Poeter, Eileen P.; Curtis, Gary

    2014-01-01

    This work develops a new functionality in UCODE_2014 to evaluate Bayesian credible intervals using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC capability in UCODE_2014 is based on the FORTRAN version of the differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm of Vrugt et al. (2009), which estimates the posterior probability density function of model parameters in high-dimensional and multimodal sampling problems. The UCODE MCMC capability provides eleven prior probability distributions and three ways to initialize the sampling process. It evaluates parametric and predictive uncertainties and it has parallel computing capability based on multiple chains to accelerate the sampling process. This paper tests and demonstrates the MCMC capability using a 10-dimensional multimodal mathematical function, a 100-dimensional Gaussian function, and a groundwater reactive transport model. The use of the MCMC capability is made straightforward and flexible by adopting the JUPITER API protocol. With the new MCMC capability, UCODE_2014 can be used to calculate three types of uncertainty intervals, which all can account for prior information: (1) linear confidence intervals which require linearity and Gaussian error assumptions and typically 10s–100s of highly parallelizable model runs after optimization, (2) nonlinear confidence intervals which require a smooth objective function surface and Gaussian observation error assumptions and typically 100s–1,000s of partially parallelizable model runs after optimization, and (3) MCMC Bayesian credible intervals which require few assumptions and commonly 10,000s–100,000s or more partially parallelizable model runs. Ready access allows users to select methods best suited to their work, and to compare methods in many circumstances.

  3. Integrated workforce capacity and inventory management under temporary labor supply uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pac, M.F.; Alp, O.; Tan, T.

    2007-01-01

    In a manufacturing environment with volatile demand, inventory management can be coupled with dynamic capacity adjustments for handling the fluctuations more effectively. In this study, we consider the problem of integrated capacity and inventory management under non-stationary stochastic demand and

  4. Integrated workforce capacity and inventory management under temporary labor supply uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pac, M.F.; Alp, O.; Tan, T.

    2009-01-01

    In a manufacturing environment with volatile demand, inventory management can be coupled with dynamic capacity adjustments for handling the fluctuations more effectively. In this study, we consider the problem of integrated capacity and inventory management under non-stationary stochastic demand and

  5. Data integration reveals key homeostatic mechanisms following low dose radiation exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tilton, Susan C.; Matzke, Melissa M. [Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99338 (United States); Sowa, Marianne B.; Stenoien, David L.; Weber, Thomas J. [Health Impacts and Exposure Science, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99338 (United States); Morgan, William F. [Biological Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99338 (United States); Waters, Katrina M., E-mail: katrina.waters@pnnl.gov [Biological Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99338 (United States)

    2015-05-15

    The goal of this study was to define pathways regulated by low dose radiation to understand how biological systems respond to subtle perturbations in their environment and prioritize pathways for human health assessment. Using an in vitro 3-D human full thickness skin model, we have examined the temporal response of dermal and epidermal layers to 10 cGy X-ray using transcriptomic, proteomic, phosphoproteomic and metabolomic platforms. Bioinformatics analysis of each dataset independently revealed potential signaling mechanisms affected by low dose radiation, and integrating data shed additional insight into the mechanisms regulating low dose responses in human tissue. We examined direct interactions among datasets (top down approach) and defined several hubs as significant regulators, including transcription factors (YY1, MYC and CREB1), kinases (CDK2, PLK1) and a protease (MMP2). These data indicate a shift in response across time — with an increase in DNA repair, tissue remodeling and repression of cell proliferation acutely (24–72 h). Pathway-based integration (bottom up approach) identified common molecular and pathway responses to low dose radiation, including oxidative stress, nitric oxide signaling and transcriptional regulation through the SP1 factor that would not have been identified by the individual data sets. Significant regulation of key downstream metabolites of nitrative stress was measured within these pathways. Among the features identified in our study, the regulation of MMP2 and SP1 was experimentally validated. Our results demonstrate the advantage of data integration to broadly define the pathways and networks that represent the mechanisms by which complex biological systems respond to perturbation. - Highlights: • Low dose ionizing radiation altered homeostasis in 3D skin tissue model. • Global gene/protein/metabolite data integrated using complementary statistical approaches • Time and location-specific change in matrix regulation

  6. Assessing risks for integrated water resource management: coping with uncertainty and the human factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Polo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment for water resource planning must deal with the uncertainty associated with excess/scarcity situations and their costs. The projected actions for increasing water security usually involve an indirect "call-effect": the territory occupation/water use is increased following the achieved protection. In this work, flood and water demand in a mountainous semi-arid watershed in southern Spain are assessed by means of the stochastic simulation of extremes, when this human factor is/is not considered. The results show how not including this call-effect induced an underestimation of flood risk after protecting the floodplain of between 35 and 78 % in a 35-year planning horizon. Similarly, the pursued water availability of a new reservoir resulted in a 10-year scarcity risk increase up to 38 % when the trend of expanding the irrigated area was included in the simulations. These results highlight the need for including this interaction in the decision-making assessment.

  7. Use of Sobol's quasirandom sequence generator for integration of modified uncertainty importance measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, A.

    1995-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of model output is relevant to a number of practices, including verification of models and computer code quality assurance. It deals with the identification of influential model parameters, especially in complex models implemented in computer programs with many uncertain input variables. In a recent article a new method for sensitivity analysis, named HIM * based on a rank transformation of the uncertainty importance measure suggested by Hora and Iman was proved very powerful for performing automated sensitivity analysis of model output, even in presence of model non-monotonicity. The same was not true of other widely used non-parametric techniques such as standardized rank regression coefficients. A drawback of the HIM * method was the large dimension of the stochastic sample needed for its estimation, which made HIM * impracticable for systems with large number of uncertain parameters. In the present note a more effective sampling algorithm, based on Sobol's quasirandom generator is coupled with HIM * , thereby greatly reducing the sample size needed for an effective identification of influential variables. The performances of the new technique are investigated for two different benchmarks. (author)

  8. Integrated doses calculation in evacuation scenarios of the neutron generator facility at Missouri S&T

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, Manish K.; Alajo, Ayodeji B., E-mail: alajoa@mst.edu

    2016-08-11

    Any source of ionizing radiations could lead to considerable dose acquisition to individuals in a nuclear facility. Evacuation may be required when elevated levels of radiation is detected within a facility. In this situation, individuals are more likely to take the closest exit. This may not be the most expedient decision as it may lead to higher dose acquisition. The strategy followed in preventing large dose acquisitions should be predicated on the path that offers least dose acquisition. In this work, the neutron generator facility at Missouri University of Science and Technology was analyzed. The Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code was used to model the entire floor of the generator's building. The simulated dose rates in the hallways were used to estimate the integrated doses for different paths leading to exits. It was shown that shortest path did not always lead to minimum dose acquisition and the approach was successful in predicting the expedient path as opposed to the approach of taking the nearest exit.

  9. Integrated planning for regional development planning and water resources management under uncertainty: A case study of Xining, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Z. H.; Zhao, H. J.; Wang, H.; Lu, W. T.; Wang, J.; Guo, H. C.

    2017-11-01

    Economic restructuring, water resources management, population planning and environmental protection are subjects to inner uncertainties of a compound system with objectives which are competitive alternatives. Optimization model and water quality model are usually used to solve problems in a certain aspect. To overcome the uncertainty and coupling in reginal planning management, an interval fuzzy program combined with water quality model for regional planning and management has been developed to obtain the absolutely ;optimal; solution in this study. The model is a hybrid methodology of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy programing (FP), and a general one-dimensional water quality model. The method extends on the traditional interval parameter fuzzy programming method by integrating water quality model into the optimization framework. Meanwhile, as an abstract concept, water resources carrying capacity has been transformed into specific and calculable index. Besides, unlike many of the past studies about water resource management, population as a significant factor has been considered. The results suggested that the methodology was applicable for reflecting the complexities of the regional planning and management systems within the planning period. The government policy makers could establish effective industrial structure, water resources utilization patterns and population planning, and to better understand the tradeoffs among economic, water resources, population and environmental objectives.

  10. The worth of data to reduce predictive uncertainty of an integrated catchment model by multi-constraint calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J.; Jensen, K. H.; Stisen, S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models that integrate numerical process descriptions across compartments of the water cycle are typically required to undergo thorough model calibration in order to estimate suitable effective model parameters. In this study, we apply a spatially distributed hydrological model code which couples the saturated zone with the unsaturated zone and the energy portioning at the land surface. We conduct a comprehensive multi-constraint model calibration against nine independent observational datasets which reflect both the temporal and the spatial behavior of hydrological response of a 1000km2 large catchment in Denmark. The datasets are obtained from satellite remote sensing and in-situ measurements and cover five keystone hydrological variables: discharge, evapotranspiration, groundwater head, soil moisture and land surface temperature. Results indicate that a balanced optimization can be achieved where errors on objective functions for all nine observational datasets can be reduced simultaneously. The applied calibration framework was tailored with focus on improving the spatial pattern performance; however results suggest that the optimization is still more prone to improve the temporal dimension of model performance. This study features a post-calibration linear uncertainty analysis. This allows quantifying parameter identifiability which is the worth of a specific observational dataset to infer values to model parameters through calibration. Furthermore the ability of an observation to reduce predictive uncertainty is assessed as well. Such findings determine concrete implications on the design of model calibration frameworks and, in more general terms, the acquisition of data in hydrological observatories.

  11. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  12. Model for calculation of spot prices and uncertainties integration; Modelo de calculo de precos spot e integracao de incertezas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saraiva, J. Tome [Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Porto (Portugal). E-mail: jsaraiva@inescn.pt

    1999-07-01

    This paper presents a model for systematic and structured impact evaluation of the uncertainties existent in the load powers, on the spot prices on the various bars of a electric power system. The application developed allows the specification of load power as inaccurate trapezoidal numbers and adopts the DC model for the representation of system exploration conditions. Considering the influence of the loss power on the formulation of a spot prices spatial distribution, the model allows the inclusion of transmission network loss estimation. The results correspond to appurtenance functions of spot prices in each barm, consisting of a discrete set of ordered pais which integrates the spot price values and the appurtenance or compatibility level, in accordance with Fuzzy Sets.

  13. An Integrated Multiperiod OPF Model with Demand Response and Renewable Generation Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukhsh, Waqquas Ahmed; Zhang, Chunyu; Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar have received much attention in recent years, and large amount of renewable generation is being integrated to the electricity networks. A fundamental challenge in a power system operation is to handle the intermittent nature of the renewable...... that with small flexibility on the demand-side substantial benefits in terms of re-dispatch costs can be achieved. The proposed approach is tested on all standard IEEE test cases upto 300 buses for a wide variety of scenarios....

  14. The integral biologically effective dose to predict brain stem toxicity of hypofractionated stereotactic radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, Brenda G.; Souhami, Luis; Pla, Conrado; Al-Amro, Abdullah S.; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Villemure, Jean-Guy; Caron, Jean-Louis; Olivier, Andre; Podgorsak, Ervin B.

    1998-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this work was to develop a parameter for use during fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy treatment planning to aid in the determination of the appropriate treatment volume and fractionation regimen that will minimize risk of late damage to normal tissue. Materials and Methods: We have used the linear quadratic model to assess the biologically effective dose at the periphery of stereotactic radiotherapy treatment volumes that impinge on the brain stem. This paper reports a retrospective study of 77 patients with malignant and benign intracranial lesions, treated between 1987 and 1995, with the dynamic rotation technique in 6 fractions over a period of 2 weeks, to a total dose of 42 Gy prescribed at the 90% isodose surface. From differential dose-volume histograms, we evaluated biologically effective dose-volume histograms and obtained an integral biologically-effective dose (IBED) in each case. Results: Of the 77 patients in the study, 36 had target volumes positioned so that the brain stem received more than 1% of the prescribed dose, and 4 of these, all treated for meningioma, developed serious late damage involving the brain stem. Other than type of lesion, the only significant variable was the volume of brain stem exposed. An analysis of the IBEDs received by these 36 patients shows evidence of a threshold value for late damage to the brain stem consistent with similar thresholds that have been determined for external beam radiotherapy. Conclusions: We have introduced a new parameter, the IBED, that may be used to represent the fractional effective dose to structures such as the brain stem that are partially irradiated with stereotactic dose distributions. The IBED is easily calculated prior to treatment and may be used to determine appropriate treatment volumes and fractionation regimens minimizing possible toxicity to normal tissue

  15. Integrated numerical platforms for environmental dose assessments of large tritium inventory facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro, P.; Ardao, J.; Velarde, M.; Sedano, L.; Xiberta, J.

    2013-01-01

    Related with a prospected new scenario of large inventory tritium facilities [KATRIN at TLK, CANDUs, ITER, EAST, other coming] the prescribed dosimetric limits by ICRP-60 for tritium committed-doses are under discussion requiring, in parallel, to surmount the highly conservative assessments by increasing the refinement of dosimetric-assessments in many aspects. Precise Lagrangian-computations of dosimetric cloud-evolution after standardized (normal/incidental/SBO) tritium cloud emissions are today numerically open to the perfect match of real-time meteorological-data, and patterns data at diverse scales for prompt/early and chronic tritium dose assessments. The trends towards integrated-numerical-platforms for environmental-dose assessments of large tritium inventory facilities under development.

  16. Insulator photocurrents: Application to dose rate hardening of CMOS/SOI integrated circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupont-Nivet, E.; Coiec, Y.M.; Flament, O.; Tinel, F.

    1998-01-01

    Irradiation of insulators with a pulse of high energy x-rays can induce photocurrents in the interconnections of integrated circuits. The authors present, here, a new method to measure and analyze this effect together with a simple model. They also demonstrate that these insulator photocurrents have to be taken into account to obtain high levels of dose-rate hardness with CMOS on SOI integrated circuits, especially flip-flops or memory blocks of ASICs. They show that it explains some of the upsets observed in a SRAM embedded in an ASIC

  17. Measurements of integrated components' parameters versus irradiation doses gamma radiation (60Co) dosimetry-methodology-tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuan, J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used for the irradiation of the integrated components and the measurements of their parameters, using Quality Insurance of dosimetry: - Measurement of the integrated dose using the competences of the Laboratoire Central des Industries Electriques (LCIE): - Measurement of irradiation dose versus source/component distance, using a calibrated equipment. - Use of ALANINE dosimeters, placed on the support of the irradiated components. - Assembly and polarization of components during the irradiations. Selection of the irradiator. - Measurement of the irradiated components's parameters, using the competences of the societies: - GenRad: GR130 tests equipement placed in the DEIN/SIR-CEN SACLAY. - Laboratoire Central des Industries Electriques (LCIE): GR125 tests equipment and this associated programmes test [fr

  18. Integrated waste load allocation for river water pollution control under uncertainty: a case study of Tuojiang River, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiuping; Hou, Shuhua; Yao, Liming; Li, Chaozhi

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents a bi-level optimization waste load allocation programming model under a fuzzy random environment to assist integrated river pollution control. Taking account of the leader-follower decision-making in the water function zones framework, the proposed approach examines the decision making feedback relationships and conflict coordination between the river basin authority and the regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) based on the Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium strategy. In the pollution control system, the river basin authority, as the leader, allocates equitable emissions rights to different subareas, and the then subarea EPA, as the followers, reallocates the limited resources to various functional zones to minimize pollution costs. This research also considers the uncertainty in the water pollution management, and the uncertain input information is expressed as fuzzy random variables. The proposed methodological approach is then applied to Tuojiang River in China and the bi-level linear programming model solutions are achieved using the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker condition. Based on the waste load allocation scheme results and various scenario analyses and discussion, some operational policies are proposed to assist decision makers (DMs) cope with waste load allocation problem for integrated river pollution control for the overall benefits.

  19. Test methods of total dose effects in very large scale integrated circuits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Chaohui; Geng Bin; He Baoping; Yao Yujuan; Li Yonghong; Peng Honglun; Lin Dongsheng; Zhou Hui; Chen Yusheng

    2004-01-01

    A kind of test method of total dose effects (TDE) is presented for very large scale integrated circuits (VLSI). The consumption current of devices is measured while function parameters of devices (or circuits) are measured. Then the relation between data errors and consumption current can be analyzed and mechanism of TDE in VLSI can be proposed. Experimental results of 60 Co γ TDEs are given for SRAMs, EEPROMs, FLASH ROMs and a kind of CPU

  20. Time-integrated thyroid dose for accidental releases from Pakistan Research Reactor-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raza, S Shoaib; Iqbal, M; Salahuddin, A; Avila, R; Pervez, S

    2004-01-01

    The two-hourly time-integrated thyroid dose due to radio-iodines released to the atmosphere through the exhaust stack of Pakistan Research Reactor-1 (PARR-1), under accident conditions, has been calculated. A computer program, PAKRAD (which was developed under an IAEA research grant, PAK/RCA/8990), was used for the dose calculations. The sensitivity of the dose results to different exhaust flow rates and atmospheric stability classes was studied. The effect of assuming a constant activity concentration (as a function of time) within the containment air volume and an exponentially decreasing air concentration on the time-integrated dose was also studied for various flow rates (1000-50,000 m 3 h -1 ). The comparison indicated that the results were insensitive to the containment air exhaust rates up to or below 2000 m 3 h -1 , when the prediction with the constant activity concentration assumption was compared to an exponentially decreasing activity concentration model. The results also indicated that the plume touchdown distance increases with increasing atmospheric stability. (note)

  1. Radioactivity in food and the environment: calculations of UK radiation doses using integrated methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allott, Rob

    2003-01-01

    Dear Sir: I read with interest the paper by W C Camplin, G P Brownless, G D Round, K Winpenny and G J Hunt from the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS) on 'Radioactivity in food and the environment: calculations of UK radiation doses using integrated methods' in the December 2002 issue of this journal (J. Radiol. Prot. 22 371-88). The Environment Agency has a keen interest in the development of a robust methodology for assessing total doses which have been received by members of the public from authorised discharges of radioactive substances to the environment. Total dose in this context means the dose received from all authorised discharges and all exposure pathways (e.g. inhalation, external irradiation from radionuclides in sediment/soil, direct radiation from operations on a nuclear site, consumption of food etc). I chair a 'total retrospective dose assessment' working group with representatives from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), Food Standards Agency (FSA), National Radiological Protection Board, CEFAS and BNFL which began discussing precisely this issue during 2002. This group is a sub-group of the National Dose Assessment Working Group which was set up in April 2002 (J. Radiol. Prot. 22 318-9). The Environment Agency, Food Standards Agency and the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate previously undertook joint research into the most appropriate methodology to use for total dose assessment (J J Hancox, S J Stansby and M C Thorne 2002 The Development of a Methodology to Assess Population Doses from Multiple Source and Exposure Pathways of Radioactivity (Environment Agency R and D Technical Report P3-070/TR). This work came to broadly the same conclusion as the work by CEFAS, that an individual dose method is probably the most appropriate method to use. This research and that undertaken by CEFAS will help the total retrospective dose assessment working group refine a set of principles and a methodology for the

  2. Solving the Global Climate Monitoring Problem in the Atmosphere: Towards SI-tied Climate Records with Integrated Uncertainty Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    influences) exists so far. Establishing such a trace first-time in form of the Reference Occultation Processing System rOPS, providing reference RO data for climate science and applications, is therefore a current cornerstone endeavor at the Wegener Center over 2011 to 2015, supported also by colleagues from other key groups at EUMETSAT Darmstadt, UCAR Boulder, DMI Copenhagen, ECMWF Reading, IAP Moscow, AIUB Berne, and RMIT Melbourne. With the rOPS we undertake to process the full chain from the SI-tied raw data to the atmospheric ECVs with integrated uncertainty propagation. We summarize where we currently stand in quantifying RO accuracy and long-term stability and then discuss the concept, development status and initial results from the rOPS, with emphasis on its novel capability to provide SI-tied reference data with integrated uncertainty estimation. We comment how these data can provide ground-breaking support to challenges such as climate model evaluation, anthropogenic change detection and attribution, and calibration of complementary climate observing systems.

  3. SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.

    1980-01-01

    SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE

  4. Integrating economy, ecology and uncertainty in an oil-spill DSS: The Prestige accident in Spain, 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, Kai W.; Liu, Xin

    2006-12-01

    Major accidental oil spills still affect sensitive marine areas and shorelines around the world, constituting a challenge for operational as well as strategic contingency management. As a rationale basis for addressing both issues we here propose a Decision Support System (DSS) consisting of a combination of modelling and evaluation methods which in particular assesses various impacts on habitats and local economies. By integrating the state-of-the-art oil spill contingency simulation system OSCAR with wind and current forecasts, environmental GIS data and multi-criteria analysis techniques, the DSS is able to rank different response actions to a chemical or oil spill. In this study, the usefulness of the approach is tested by hindcasting the Prestige accident off the coast of Spain in 2002. In particular, the short- to mid-term economic and ecological consequences of different mitigation measures are estimated. We identified clearly one worst option matching the actual decision taken by the responsible parties and one or two almost equally well performing routes. Two procedures of including uncertainty at various stages of the DSS are tested. The first method averages ensembles of outcomes between each modelling/evaluation stage, while the second one preserves the entire degree of freedom till the final ranking procedure. Results in the Prestige case turned out to be rather insensitive against both ways to account for uncertainties. The robustness as well as clarity of the DSS has the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision making even in politically sensitive situations. Limitations as well as ongoing improvements of the system are highlighted, in particular emphasizing linkages to environmental economics.

  5. Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC): Integrated Treatment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty in Safety Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngblood, R.W.

    2010-01-01

    The concept of 'margin' has a long history in nuclear licensing and in the codification of good engineering practices. However, some traditional applications of 'margin' have been carried out for surrogate scenarios (such as design basis scenarios), without regard to the actual frequencies of those scenarios, and have been carried out with in a systematically conservative fashion. This means that the effectiveness of the application of the margin concept is determined in part by the original choice of surrogates, and is limited in any case by the degree of conservatism imposed on the evaluation. In the RISMC project, which is part of the Department of Energy's 'Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program' (LWRSP), we are developing a risk-informed characterization of safety margin. Beginning with the traditional discussion of 'margin' in terms of a 'load' (a physical challenge to system or component function) and a 'capacity' (the capability of that system or component to accommodate the challenge), we are developing the capability to characterize probabilistic load and capacity spectra, reflecting both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in system response. For example, the probabilistic load spectrum will reflect the frequency of challenges of a particular severity. Such a characterization is required if decision-making is to be informed optimally. However, in order to enable the quantification of probabilistic load spectra, existing analysis capability needs to be extended. Accordingly, the INL is working on a next-generation safety analysis capability whose design will allow for much more efficient parameter uncertainty analysis, and will enable a much better integration of reliability-related and phenomenology-related aspects of margin.

  6. Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

  7. Application of the Monte Carlo integration method in calculations of dose distributions in HDR-Brachytherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baltas, D; Geramani, K N; Ioannidis, G T; Kolotas, C; Zamboglou, N [Strahlenklinik, Stadtische Kliniken Offenbach, Offenbach (Germany); Giannouli, S [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens (Greece)

    1999-12-31

    Source anisotropy is a very important factor in brachytherapy quality assurance of high dose rate HDR Ir 192 afterloading stepping sources. If anisotropy is not taken into account then doses received by a brachytherapy patient in certain directions can be in error by a clinically significant amount. Experimental measurements of anisotropy are very labour intensive. We have shown that within acceptable limits of accuracy, Monte Carlo integration (MCI) of a modified Sievert integral (3D generalisation) can provide the necessary data within a much shorter time scale than can experiments. Hence MCI can be used for routine quality assurance schedules whenever a new design of HDR or PDR Ir 192 is used for brachytherapy afterloading. Our MCI calculation results are comparable with published experimental data and Monte Carlo simulation data for microSelectron and VariSource Ir 192 sources. We have shown not only that MCI offers advantages over alternative numerical integration methods, but also that treating filtration coefficients as radial distance-dependent functions improves Sievert integral accuracy at low energies. This paper also provides anisotropy data for three new Ir 192 sources, one for microSelectron-HDR and two for the microSelectron-PDR, for which data currently is not available. The information we have obtained in this study can be incorporated into clinical practice.

  8. RISC-RAD. A European integrated approach to the problem of low doses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meunier, A.; Sabatier, L.; Atkinson, M.; Paretzke, H.; Bouffler, S.; Mullenders, L.

    2007-01-01

    Complete text of publication follows. Funded by the European Commission in the framework of a dedicated programme supporting research in the Nuclear sector (FP6 Euratom), the project RISC-RAD undertakes experimental and modelling studies ultimately to improve low dose radiation cancer risk assessment by exploring and providing evidence for the most appropriate radiation cancer risk projection and interpolation models. It started on 1st January 2004 and is running until 31 st October 2008. It mobilizes a consortium of 31 partners and is coordinated by Dr. Laure Sabatier from the French atomic energy commission. Indeed the project represents an unprecedented attempt to integrate horizontally the research on the effects of low doses of IR at the European level. A multipartner project supporting objective-driven research, RISC-RAD aims at contributing to bridge the remaining gap of scientific knowledge about effects of lows doses of ionizing radiation. It spans a large part of the research spectrum, including many topics addressed during the LOWRAD2007 conference. This presentation intends to give an account of the integrative aspects of the project, insights on the innovative solutions found to approach a complex and controversial scientific topic like the biological effects of low doses of ionizing radiation, and links with some areas of social studies on science.The concept of 'integration' implies the development of a new kind of activity in the research field, which crosses its traditional boundaries : controversies of several kinds must temporarily be overcome within the project management board in order to define and follow a common strategy. Among them, how to reconcile the creative part of fundamental research with the compliance to strict project planning rules has come up as a debate which questions the best way a significant collective and coordinated action can address the issue of the low dose cancer risk assessment on the long term. The knowledge and

  9. Dose-escalated simultaneous integrated-boost treatment of prostate cancer patients via helical tomotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geier, M.; Astner, S.T.; Duma, M.N.; Putzhammer, J.; Winkler, C.; Molls, M.; Geinitz, H. [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany). Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Strahlentherapie und Radiologische Onkologie; Jacob, V. [Universitaetsklinikum Freiburg (Germany). Klinik fuer Strahlenheilkunde; Nieder, C. [Nordland Hospital, Bodoe (Norway). Dept. of Oncology and Palliative Care; Tromsoe Univ. (Norway). Inst. of Clinical Medicine

    2012-05-15

    The goal of this work was to assess the feasibility of moderately hypofractionated simultaneous integrated-boost intensity-modulated radiotherapy (SIB-IMRT) with helical tomotherapy in patients with localized prostate cancer regarding acute side effects and dose-volume histogram data (DVH data). Acute side effects and DVH data were evaluated of the first 40 intermediate risk prostate cancer patients treated with a definitive daily image-guided SIB-IMRT protocol via helical tomotherapy in our department. The planning target volume including the prostate and the base of the seminal vesicles with safety margins was treated with 70 Gy in 35 fractions. The boost volume containing the prostate and 3 mm safety margins (5 mm craniocaudal) was treated as SIB to a total dose of 76 Gy (2.17 Gy per fraction). Planning constraints for the anterior rectal wall were set in order not to exceed the dose of 76 Gy prescribed to the boost volume. Acute toxicity was evaluated prospectively using a modified CTCAE (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events) score. SIB-IMRT allowed good rectal sparing, although the full boost dose was permitted to the anterior rectal wall. Median rectum dose was 38 Gy in all patients and the median volumes receiving at least 65 Gy (V65), 70 Gy (V70), and 75 Gy (V75) were 13.5%, 9%, and 3%, respectively. No grade 4 toxicity was observed. Acute grade 3 toxicity was observed in 20% of patients involving nocturia only. Grade 2 acute intestinal and urological side effects occurred in 25% and 57.5%, respectively. No correlation was found between acute toxicity and the DVH data. This institutional SIB-IMRT protocol using daily image guidance as a precondition for smaller safety margins allows dose escalation to the prostate without increasing acute toxicity. (orig.)

  10. Reducing uncertainty for estimating forest carbon stocks and dynamics using integrated remote sensing, forest inventory and process-based modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Joetzjer, E.; Maignan, F.; Luyssaert, S.; Barichivich, J.

    2015-12-01

    Accurately estimating forest biomass and forest carbon dynamics requires new integrated remote sensing, forest inventory, and carbon cycle modeling approaches. Presently, there is an increasing and urgent need to reduce forest biomass uncertainty in order to meet the requirements of carbon mitigation treaties, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Here we describe a new parameterization and assimilation methodology used to estimate tropical forest biomass using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic global vegetation model. ORCHIDEE-CAN simulates carbon uptake and allocation to individual trees using a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis, respiration and other first-order processes. The model is first parameterized using forest inventory data to constrain background mortality rates, i.e., self-thinning, and productivity. Satellite remote sensing data for forest structure, i.e., canopy height, is used to constrain simulated forest stand conditions using a look-up table approach to match canopy height distributions. The resulting forest biomass estimates are provided for spatial grids that match REDD+ project boundaries and aim to provide carbon estimates for the criteria described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines Tier 3 category. With the increasing availability of forest structure variables derived from high-resolution LIDAR, RADAR, and optical imagery, new methodologies and applications with process-based carbon cycle models are becoming more readily available to inform land management.

  11. Dose calculations for irregular fields using three-dimensional first-scatter integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boesecke, R.; Scharfenberg, H.; Schlegel, W.; Hartmann, G.H.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes a method of dose calculations for irregular fields which requires only the mean energy of the incident photons, the geometrical properties of the irregular field and of the therapy unit, and the attenuation coefficient of tissue. The method goes back to an approach including spatial aspects of photon scattering for inhomogeneities for the calculation of dose reduction factors as proposed by Sontag and Cunningham (1978). It is based on the separation of dose into a primary component and a scattered component. The scattered component can generally be calculated for each field by integration over dose contributions from scattering in neighbouring volume elements. The quotient of this scattering contribution in the irregular field and the scattering contribution in the equivalent open field is then the correction factor for scattering in an irregular field. A correction factor for the primary component can be calculated if the attenuation of the photons in the shielding block is properly taken into account. The correction factor is simply given by the quotient of primary photons of the irregular field and the primary photons of the open field. (author)

  12. A new approach and computational algorithm for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for SED and SAD with applications to beryllium integral experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, P.M.; Youssef, M.Z.; Abdou, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    A new approach for treating the sensitivity and uncertainty in the secondary energy distribution (SED) and the secondary angular distribution (SAD) has been developed, and the existing two-dimensional sensitivity/uncertainty analysis code, FORSS, was expanded to incorporate the new approach. The calculational algorithm was applied to the 9 Be(n,2n) cross section to study the effect of the current uncertainties in the SED and SAD of neutrons emitted from this reaction on the prediction accuracy of the tritium production rate from 6 Li(T 6 ) and 7 Li(T 7 ) in an engineering-oriented fusion integral experiment of the US Department of Energy/Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute Collaborative Program on Fusion Neutronics in which beryllium was used as a neutron multiplier. In addition, the analysis was extended to include the uncertainties in the integrated smooth cross sections of beryllium and other materials that constituted the test assembly used in the experiment. This comprehensive two-dimensional cross-section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis aimed at identifying the sources of discrepancies between calculated and measured values for T 6 and T 7

  13. Pulse and integral optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). Similarities and dissimilarities to thermoluminescence (TL) dose dependence and dose-rate effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, R.; Leung, P.L.

    2000-01-01

    Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and thermoluminescence (Tl) are two possible methods to monitor the absorbed radiation in solid samples, and therefore are utilized for dosimetry. For this application, two properties are desirable, namely, linear dose dependence of the measured quantity and dose-rate independence. For Tl, different kinds of super linear dose dependence have been reported in the literature in different materials, and in some cases, dose-rate dependence has also been found. These have been explained as being the result of competition. In OSL, some recent works reported on super linear dose dependence in annealed samples. In the present work, we explain the possible occurrence of these phenomena in OSL by solving numerically the relevant rate equations governing the process during irradiation, relaxation and read-out (heating or light stimulation). The results show that for short pulse OSL, quadratic dose dependence can be expected when only one trapping state and one kind of recombination center are involved and when the excitation starts with empty traps and centers. With the short pulse OSL, the calculation also reveals a possible dose-rate effect. Under the same circumstances, the area under the OSL curve depends linearly on the dose. The dependence of the whole area under the OSL curve on the dose is shown to be super linear when a disconnected trapping state or radiationless center take part in the process. Also, dose-rate effect can be expected in these cases, although no experimental effect of this sort has been reported so far. In pulse OSL, the analogy is made between the measured intensity and the initial rise range of non-first order Tl, whereas for the total area OSL, there is a nearly full analogy with the dose behavior of the Tl maximum. (Author)

  14. Links among available integral benchmarks and differential date evaluations, computational biases and uncertainties, and nuclear criticality safety biases on potential MOX production throughput

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goluoglu, S.; Hopper, C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Through the use of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's recently developed and applied sensitivity and uncertainty computational analysis techniques, this paper presents the relevance and importance of available and needed integral benchmarks and differential data evaluations impacting potential MOX production throughput determinations relative to low-moderated MOX fuel blending operations. The relevance and importance in the availability of or need for critical experiment benchmarks and data evaluations are presented in terms of computational biases as influenced by computational and experimental sensitivities and uncertainties relative to selected MOX production powder blending processes. Recent developments for estimating the safe margins of subcriticality for assuring nuclear criticality safety for process approval are presented. In addition, the impact of the safe margins (due to computational biases and uncertainties) on potential MOX production throughput will also be presented. (author)

  15. Utilization of radiation protection gear for absorbed dose reduction: an integrative literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Flavio Augusto Penna; Flor, Rita de Cassia; Pereira, Aline Garcia

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The present study was aimed at evaluating the relation between the use of radiation protection gear and the decrease in absorbed dose of ionizing radiation, thereby reinforcing the efficacy of its use by both the patients and occupationally exposed personnel. Materials and Methods: The integrative literature review method was utilized to analyze 21 articles, 2 books, 1 thesis, 1 monograph, 1 computer program, 4 pieces of database research (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica and Departamento de Informatica do Sistema Unico de Saude) and 2 sets of radiological protection guidelines. Results: Theoretically, a reduction of 86% to 99% in the absorbed dose is observed with the use of radiation protection gear. In practice, however, the reduction may achieve 88% in patients submitted to conventional radiology, and 95% in patients submitted to computed tomography. In occupationally exposed individuals, the reduction is around 90% during cardiac catheterization, and 75% during orthopedic surgery. Conclusion: According to findings of several previous pieces of research, the use of radiation protection gear is a low-cost and effective way to reduce absorbed dose both for patients and occupationally exposed individuals. Thus, its use is necessary for the implementation of effective radioprotection programs in radiodiagnosis centers. (author)

  16. Estimation of equivalent dose and its uncertainty in the OSL SAR protocol when count numbers do not follow a Poisson distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bluszcz, Andrzej; Adamiec, Grzegorz; Heer, Aleksandra J.

    2015-01-01

    The current work focuses on the estimation of equivalent dose and its uncertainty using the single aliquot regenerative protocol in optically stimulated luminescence measurements. The authors show that the count numbers recorded with the use of photomultiplier tubes are well described by negative binomial distributions, different ones for background counts and photon induced counts. This fact is then exploited in pseudo-random count number generation and simulations of D e determination assuming a saturating exponential growth. A least squares fitting procedure is applied using different types of weights to determine whether the obtained D e 's and their error estimates are unbiased and accurate. A weighting procedure is suggested that leads to almost unbiased D e estimates. It is also shown that the assumption of Poisson distribution in D e estimation may lead to severe underestimation of the D e error. - Highlights: • Detailed analysis of statistics of count numbers in luminescence readers. • Generation of realistically scattered pseudo-random numbers of counts in luminescence measurements. • A practical guide for stringent analysis of D e values and errors assessment.

  17. Integrated technique for assessing environmental dose of radioactive waste storage installation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bor-Jing Chang; Chien-Liang Shih; Ing-Jane Chen [Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Lungtan, Taiwan (China); Ren-Dih Sheu; Shiang-Huei Jiang [National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Shu-Jun Chang [Nuclear Science and Technology Association, Taiwan (China); Ruei-Ying Liao; Pei Yu; Chin-Yi Huang [Taiwan Power Company, Taipei, Taiwan (China)

    2000-05-01

    The ability to accurately predict exposure rates at large distances from a gamma radiation source is becoming increasingly important. This is because that the related regulation for the control of radiation levels in and around nuclear facilities becomes more stringent. Since the continuous increase of the radwaste storage capacity requirement on site, the requirement of a more realistic evaluation is very necessary. Those doses are usually at past time evaluated by QADCG/INER-2 code for direct dose and by SKYSHINE-III code for skyshine dose in which evaluation were over conservatively considered. This study is to update the evaluation code package accompanied with adequate methodology and to establish integrated analysis procedure. Thereafter, radiation doses can be accurately calculated in a reasonably conservative way. The purpose of the investigation is divided into three categories. First, SPECTRUM-506 is used instead of SPECTUM. Nuclide databases are enlarged from 100 up to 506. And the operation is ported to personal computer. Secondly, the QADCG/INER-3 code is developed to enhance the original QADCG/INER-2 code. The most important difference is the use of the geometric progression (GP) fitting function for the gamma-ray buildup factor. SKYSHINE-III code is replaced by McSKY and SKYDOSE codes. They are well benchmarked by using the Monte Carlo code MCNP and sensitive parameters are detailed investigated. Thirdly, the well developed analysis procedure is applicable for nuclear utility radwaste storage sites. Finally, the case studies were performed by using those packages to assess the radiological impact of utility radwaste storage site. The results are verified in detail by using Monte Carlo code MCNP and the results seems pretty consistent from both method. (author)

  18. SU-F-J-157: Effect of Contouring Uncertainty in Post Implant Dosimetry of Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Permanent Seed Brachytherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mashouf, S; Merino, T; Ravi, A; Morton, G; Song, W [Sunnybrook Health Sciences Center, Odette Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON (Canada); University of Toronto, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Toronto, ON (Canada); Safigholi, H; Soliman, A [Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: There is strong evidence relating post-implant dosimetry for low-dose-rate (LDR) prostate seed brachytherapy to local control rates. The delineation of the prostate on CT images, however, represents a challenge due to the lack of soft tissue contrast in order to identify the prostate borders. This study aims at quantifying the sensitivity of clinically relevant dosimetric parameters to uncertainty in the contouring of prostate. Methods: CT images, post-op plans and contours of a cohort of patients (n=43) (low risk=55.8%, intermediate risk=39.5%, high risk=4.7%), who had received prostate seed brachytherapy, were imported into MIM Symphony treatment planning system. The prostate contours in post-implant CT images were expanded/contracted uniformly for margins of ±1.00 mm, ±2.00 mm, ±3.00 mm, ±4.00 mm and ±5.00 mm. The values for V100 and D90 were extracted from Dose Volume Histograms for each contour and compared. Results: Significant changes were observed in the values of D90 and V100 as well as the number of suboptimal plans for expansion or contraction margins of only few millimeters. Evaluation of coverage based on D90 was found to be less sensitive to expansion errors compared to V100. D90 led to a lower number of implants incorrectly identified with insufficient coverage for expanded contours which increases the accuracy of post-implant QA using CT images compared to V100. Conclusion: In order to establish a successful post implant QA for LDR prostate seed brachytherapy, it is necessary to identify the low and high thresholds of important dose metrics of the target volume such as D90 and V100. Since these parameters are sensitive to target volume definition, accurate identification of prostate borders would help to improve accuracy and predictive value of the post-implant QA process. In this respect, use of imaging modalities such as MRI where prostate is well delineated should prove useful.

  19. SU-F-J-157: Effect of Contouring Uncertainty in Post Implant Dosimetry of Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Permanent Seed Brachytherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashouf, S; Merino, T; Ravi, A; Morton, G; Song, W; Safigholi, H; Soliman, A

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: There is strong evidence relating post-implant dosimetry for low-dose-rate (LDR) prostate seed brachytherapy to local control rates. The delineation of the prostate on CT images, however, represents a challenge due to the lack of soft tissue contrast in order to identify the prostate borders. This study aims at quantifying the sensitivity of clinically relevant dosimetric parameters to uncertainty in the contouring of prostate. Methods: CT images, post-op plans and contours of a cohort of patients (n=43) (low risk=55.8%, intermediate risk=39.5%, high risk=4.7%), who had received prostate seed brachytherapy, were imported into MIM Symphony treatment planning system. The prostate contours in post-implant CT images were expanded/contracted uniformly for margins of ±1.00 mm, ±2.00 mm, ±3.00 mm, ±4.00 mm and ±5.00 mm. The values for V100 and D90 were extracted from Dose Volume Histograms for each contour and compared. Results: Significant changes were observed in the values of D90 and V100 as well as the number of suboptimal plans for expansion or contraction margins of only few millimeters. Evaluation of coverage based on D90 was found to be less sensitive to expansion errors compared to V100. D90 led to a lower number of implants incorrectly identified with insufficient coverage for expanded contours which increases the accuracy of post-implant QA using CT images compared to V100. Conclusion: In order to establish a successful post implant QA for LDR prostate seed brachytherapy, it is necessary to identify the low and high thresholds of important dose metrics of the target volume such as D90 and V100. Since these parameters are sensitive to target volume definition, accurate identification of prostate borders would help to improve accuracy and predictive value of the post-implant QA process. In this respect, use of imaging modalities such as MRI where prostate is well delineated should prove useful.

  20. SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code. [In FORTRAN for CDC-7600, IBM 360

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.

    1980-01-01

    SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE.

  1. DS02 uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

    2005-01-01

    In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

  2. Low dose radiation effects: an integrative european approach (Risc-Rad Project) coordinated by the Cea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabatier, L.

    2006-01-01

    RISC-RAD (Radiosensitivity of Individuals and Susceptibility to Cancer induced by ionizing Radiations) is an Integrated Project funded by the European Commission under 6. Framework Programme / EURATOM. RISC-RAD started on 1. January 2004 for a duration of four years. Coordinated by Cea (Dr Laure Sabatier), it involves 11 European countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) and 29 research institutions. Objectives: Exposures to low and protracted doses of ionizing radiation are very frequent in normal living environment, at work places, in industry and in medicine. Effects of these exposures on human health cannot be reliably assessed by epidemiological methods, nor is thoroughly understood by biologists. RISC-RAD project proposes to help bridging the gap of scientific knowledge about these effects. To achieve this goal, a necessary key step is to understand the basic mechanisms by which radiation induces cancer. Studying this multistage process in an integrated way, the project offers a new biological approach characterised by and clear-cut and objective-driven scientific policy: the project is focused on the effects of low doses (less than 100 mSv) and protracted doses of radiation. It aims at identifying new parameters that take into account the differences in radiation responses between individuals. A group of modelers works closely with the experimental teams in order to better quantify the risks associated with low and protracted doses. Research work is divided into five work packages interacting closely with each other. WP1 is dedicated to DNA damage. Ionizing Radiation (IR) produce a broad spectrum of base modifications and DNA strand breaks of different kinds, among which double-strand breaks and 'clustered damage' which is thought to be a major feature in biological effectiveness of IR. The aim of Work Package 1 is to improve understanding of the initial DNA damage induced by

  3. Integration of Fricke gel dosimetry with Ag nanoparticles for experimental dose enhancement determination in theranostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vedelago, J.; Valente, M.; Mattea, F.

    2017-10-01

    The use and implementation of nanoparticles in medicine has grown exponentially in the last twenty years. Their main applications include drug delivery, theranostics, tissue engineering and magneto function. Dosimetry techniques can take advantage of inorganic nanoparticles properties and their combination with gel dosimetry techniques could be used as a first step for their later inclusion in radio-diagnostics or radiotherapy treatments. This work presents preliminary results of properly synthesized and purify silver nanoparticles integration with Fricke gel dosimeters. Used nanoparticles presented mean sizes ranging from 2 to 20 nm, with a lognormal distribution. Xylenol orange concentration in Fricke gel dosimeter was adjust in order to allow sample optical readout, accounting nanoparticles plasmon. Dose enhancement was assessed irradiating dosimeters setting X-ray beams energies below and above silver K-edge. (Author)

  4. Integration of Fricke gel dosimetry with Ag nanoparticles for experimental dose enhancement determination in theranostics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vedelago, J.; Valente, M. [Instituto de Fisica Enrique Gaviola - CONICET, Av. Medina Allende s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, X5000HUA Cordoba (Argentina); Mattea, F., E-mail: jvedelago@famaf.unc.edu.ar [Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, FAMAF, Laboratorio de Investigacion e Instrumentacion en Fisica Aplicada a la Medicina e Imagenes por Rayos X, Av. Medina Allende s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, X5000HUA Cordoba (Argentina)

    2017-10-15

    The use and implementation of nanoparticles in medicine has grown exponentially in the last twenty years. Their main applications include drug delivery, theranostics, tissue engineering and magneto function. Dosimetry techniques can take advantage of inorganic nanoparticles properties and their combination with gel dosimetry techniques could be used as a first step for their later inclusion in radio-diagnostics or radiotherapy treatments. This work presents preliminary results of properly synthesized and purify silver nanoparticles integration with Fricke gel dosimeters. Used nanoparticles presented mean sizes ranging from 2 to 20 nm, with a lognormal distribution. Xylenol orange concentration in Fricke gel dosimeter was adjust in order to allow sample optical readout, accounting nanoparticles plasmon. Dose enhancement was assessed irradiating dosimeters setting X-ray beams energies below and above silver K-edge. (Author)

  5. Safety of dose escalation by simultaneous integrated boosting radiation dose within the primary tumor guided by 18FDG-PET/CT for esophageal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Wen; Cai, Xu-Wei; Liu, Qi; Zhu, Zheng-Fei; Feng, Wen; Zhang, Qin; Zhang, Ying-Jian; Yao, Zhi-Feng; Fu, Xiao-Long

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To observe the safety of selective dose boost to the pre-treatment high 18 F-deoxyglucose (FDG) uptake areas of the esophageal GTV. Methods: Patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were treated with escalating radiation dose of 4 levels, with a simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) to the pre-treatment 50% SUVmax area of the primary tumor. Patients received 4 monthly cycles of cisplatin and fluorouracil. Dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) was defined as any Grade 3 or higher acute toxicities causing continuous interruption of radiation for over 1 week. Results: From April 2012 to February 2014, dose has been escalated up to LEVEL 4 (70 Gy). All of the 25 patients finished the prescribed dose without DLT, and 10 of them developed Grade 3 acute esophagitis. One patient of LEVEL 2 died of esophageal hemorrhage within 1 month after completion of radiotherapy, which was not definitely correlated with treatment yet. Late toxicities remained under observation. With median follow up of 8.9 months, one-year overall survival and local control was 69.2% and 77.4%, respectively. Conclusions: Dose escalation in esophageal cancer based on 18 FDG-PET/CT has been safely achieved up to 70 Gy using the SIB technique. Acute toxicities were well tolerated, whereas late toxicities and long-term outcomes deserved further observation

  6. INTERCOMPARISON ON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE QUANTITY PERSONAL DOSE EQUIVALENT HP(10) IN PHOTON FIELDS. LINEARITY DEPENDENCE, LOWER LIMIT OF DETECTION AND UNCERTAINTY IN MEASUREMENT OF DOSIMETRY SYSTEMS OF INDIVIDUAL MONITORING SERVICES IN GABON AND GHANA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ondo Meye, P; Schandorf, C; Amoako, J K; Manteaw, P O; Amoatey, E A; Adjei, D N

    2017-12-01

    An inter-comparison study was conducted to assess the capability of dosimetry systems of individual monitoring services (IMSs) in Gabon and Ghana to measure personal dose equivalent Hp(10) in photon fields. The performance indicators assessed were the lower limit of detection, linearity and uncertainty in measurement. Monthly and quarterly recording levels were proposed with corresponding values of 0.08 and 0.025 mSv, and 0.05 and 0.15 mSv for the TLD and OSL systems, respectively. The linearity dependence of the dosimetry systems was performed following the requirement given in the Standard IEC 62387 of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). The results obtained for the two systems were satisfactory. The procedure followed for the uncertainty assessment is the one given in the IEC technical report TR62461. The maximum relative overall uncertainties, in absolute value, expressed in terms of Hp(10), for the TL dosimetry system Harshaw 6600, are 44. 35% for true doses below 0.40 mSv and 36.33% for true doses ≥0.40 mSv. For the OSL dosimetry system microStar, the maximum relative overall uncertainties, in absolute value, are 52.17% for true doses below 0.40 mSv and 37.43% for true doses ≥0.40 mSv. These results are in good agreement with the requirements for accuracy of the International Commission on Radiological protection. When expressing the uncertainties in terms of response, comparison with the IAEA requirements for overall accuracy showed that the uncertainty results were also acceptable. The values of Hp(10) directly measured by the two dosimetry systems showed a significant underestimation for the Harshaw 6600 system, and a slight overestimation for the microStar system. After correction for linearity of the measured doses, the two dosimetry systems gave better and comparable results. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Integration of the Uncertainties of Anion and TOC Measurements into the Flammability Control Strategy for Sludge Batch 8 at the DWPF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, T. B.

    2013-01-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has been working with the Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) in the development and implementation of a flammability control strategy for DWPF's melter operation during the processing of Sludge Batch 8 (SB8). SRNL's support has been in response to technical task requests that have been made by SRR's Waste Solidification Engineering (WSE) organization. The flammability control strategy relies on measurements that are performed on Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) samples by the DWPF Laboratory. Measurements of nitrate, oxalate, formate, and total organic carbon (TOC) standards generated by the DWPF Laboratory are presented in this report, and an evaluation of the uncertainties of these measurements is provided. The impact of the uncertainties of these measurements on DWPF's strategy for controlling melter flammability also is evaluated. The strategy includes monitoring each SME batch for its nitrate content and its TOC content relative to the nitrate content and relative to the antifoam additions made during the preparation of the SME batch. A linearized approach for monitoring the relationship between TOC and nitrate is developed, equations are provided that integrate the measurement uncertainties into the flammability control strategy, and sample calculations for these equations are shown to illustrate the impact of the uncertainties on the flammability control strategy

  8. Uncertainty mitigation through the integration with production history matching; Mitigacao de incertezas atraves da integracao com ajuste de historico de producao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becerra, Gustavo G. [PETROBRAS Energia S.A. (Brazil); Maschio, Celio [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP (Brazil); Schiozer, Denis [Universidade de Cuiaba (UNIC), MT (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The scope of this work is to present a methodology that integrates the uncertainty analysis with the history matching process in complex models. This procedure helps to detect critical subsurface attributes and their possible variation, in order to estimate a representative range of the additional reserves to be developed. It is not an objective to obtain the best deterministic model, but to mitigate uncertainties by using observed data. The methodology presented in this work is applied, on global scale, in a complex dynamic model based on Namorado Field data. The methodology allows the redefinition of the probability and levels of the dynamic and static attributes in order: to reduce the group of possible history matching obtaining more realistic models; to identify the existent uncertainty as a function of observed data; to decrease the uncertainty range of critical reservoir parameters; to increase the confidence in production forecast. One contribution of this work is to present a quantitative approach to increase the reliability on the use of reservoir simulation as an auxiliary tool in decision processes. (author)

  9. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  10. A cost-effective technique for integrating personal radiation dose assessment with personal gravimetric sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strydom, R.; Rolle, R.; Van der Linde, A.

    1992-01-01

    During recent years there has been an increasing awareness internationally of radiation levels in the mining and milling of radioactive ores, including those from non-uranium mines. A major aspect of radiation control is concerned with the measurement of radiation levels and the assessment of radiation doses incurred by individual workers. Current techniques available internationally for personnel monitoring of radiation exposures are expensive and there is a particular need to reduce the cost of personal radiation monitoring in South African gold mines because of the large labour force employed. In this regard the obvious benefits of integrating personal radiation monitoring with existing personal monitoring systems already in place in South African gold mines should be exploited. A system which can be utilized for this purpose is personal gravimetric sampling. A new cost-effective technique for personal radiation monitoring, which can be fully integrated with the personal gravimetric sampling strategy being implemented on mines, has been developed in South Africa. The basic principles of this technique and its potential in South African mines are described. 9 refs., 7 figs

  11. Satisfaction and uncertainty in car-sharing decisions : an integration of hybrid choice and random regret-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, Jinhee; Rasouli, Soora; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2017-01-01

    Car-sharing systems have attracted increasingly attention as one of several sustainable transportation systems. After joining a car-sharing organization, people can use a shared-car. Because sharing a car involves other members, there is some inherent uncertainty that originates from the possible

  12. A Dosimetric Comparison of Dose Escalation with Simultaneous Integrated Boost for Locally Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjuan Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Many studies have demonstrated that a higher radiotherapy dose is associated with improved outcomes in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC. We performed a dosimetric planning study to assess the dosimetric feasibility of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT with a simultaneous integrated boost (SIB in locally advanced NSCLC. Methods. We enrolled twenty patients. Five different dose plans were generated for each patient. All plans were prescribed a dose of 60 Gy to the planning tumor volume (PTV. In the three SIB groups, the prescribed dose was 69 Gy, 75 Gy, and 81 Gy in 30 fractions to the internal gross tumor volume (iGTV. Results. The SIB-IMRT plans were associated with a significant increase in the iGTV dose (P < 0.05, without increased normal tissue exposure or prolonged overall treatment time. Significant differences were not observed in the dose to the normal lung in terms of the V5 and V20 among the four IMRT plans. The maximum dose (Dmax in the esophagus moderately increased along with the prescribed dose (P < 0.05. Conclusions. Our results indicated that escalating the dose by SIB-IMRT is dosimetrically feasible; however, systematic evaluations via clinical trials are still warranted. We have designed a further clinical study (which is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02841228.

  13. Uncertainties in the correction factors as the dose polarization and recombination at different energies; Incertidumbres en la medida de factores de correccion a la dosis por polarizacion y recombinacion a diferentes energias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alejo Luque, L.; Rodriguez Romero, R.; Castro Tejero, P.; Fandino Lareo, J. M.

    2011-07-01

    This paper discusses the measures and uncertainties of the correction factors for dose-polarization (k, 1) and recombination (k,) of different ionization chambers plane-parallel and cylindrical. The values ??have been obtained using photon and electron beams of various energies generated by linear accelerators nominal Varian 21EX CLJNAC Tomotherapy Hi-Art and JI. We study the cases in which you can avoid the application of the factors obtained, according to the criteria proposed.

  14. Integral Dose and Radiation-Induced Secondary Malignancies: Comparison between Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy and Three-Dimensional Conformal Radiotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano G. Masciullo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to compare the integral dose received by non-tumor tissue (NTID in stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT with modified LINAC with that received by three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT, estimating possible correlations between NTID and radiation-induced secondary malignancy risk. Eight patients with intrathoracic lesions were treated with SBRT, 23 Gy × 1 fraction. All patients were then replanned for 3D-CRT, maintaining the same target coverage and applying a dose scheme of 2 Gy × 32 fractions. The dose equivalence between the different treatment modalities was achieved assuming α/β = 10Gy for tumor tissue and imposing the same biological effective dose (BED on the target (BED = 76Gy10. Total NTIDs for both techniques was calculated considering α/β = 3Gy for healthy tissue. Excess absolute cancer risk (EAR was calculated for various organs using a mechanistic model that includes fractionation effects. A paired two-tailed Student t-test was performed to determine statistically significant differences between the data (p ≤ 0.05. Our study indicates that despite the fact that for all patients integral dose is higher for SBRT treatments than 3D-CRT (p = 0.002, secondary cancer risk associated to SBRT patients is significantly smaller than that calculated for 3D-CRT (p = 0.001. This suggests that integral dose is not a good estimator for quantifying cancer induction. Indeed, for the model and parameters used, hypofractionated radiotherapy has the potential for secondary cancer reduction. The development of reliable secondary cancer risk models seems to be a key issue in fractionated radiotherapy. Further assessments of integral doses received with 3D-CRT and other special techniques are also strongly encouraged.

  15. Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dietrich

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

  16. Integrating measuring uncertainty of tactile and optical coordinate measuring machines in the process capability assessment of micro injection moulding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard; Gasparin, Stefania

    2010-01-01

    Process capability of micro injection moulding was investigated in this paper by calculating the Cp and Cpk statistics. Uncertainty of both optical and tactile measuring systems employed in the quality control of micro injection moulded products was assessed and compared with the specified...... tolerances. Limits in terms of manufacturing process capability as well as of suitability of such measuring systems when employed for micro production inspection were quantitatively determined....

  17. Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Sampson, Andrew J; Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Williamson, Jeffrey; Malusek, Alexandr

    2012-01-01

    Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  19. Adaptation of mechano-graphy to the measurement of integrated doses (1962); Adaptation de la mecanographie pour la comptabilisation des doses integrees (1962)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabardel-Brian, R; Dulau, J [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Centre de Production de Plutonium, Marcoule (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1962-07-01

    Because of the increasing number of workers exposed to nuclear radiation, and with a view to avoiding doses above the maximum permissible dose for these workers, it was necessary to find a system whereby the total irradiation assimilated during periods of 3 and 12 consecutive months could be known and circulated rapidly, within 48 hours. The method chosen for this requires the services of the Mechano-graphic service of the Marcoule Centre. The present article describes the mechanical data processing solution to this problem. (authors) [French] Devant le nombre croissant de travailleurs appeles a etre exposes a une irradiation d'origine nucleaire et avec le souci constant d'eviter les depassements de Dose Maximum Admissible a ces agents, il convenait de trouver un systeme de diffusion de doses integrees capable de nous renseigner, dans un delai de 48 h, sur le capital irradiation integre au cours des periodes 3 mois et 12 mois consecutifs. Le mode de diffusion retenu fait appel aux services de l'Atelier Mecanographie du Centre de Marcoule. Le present rapport expose la solution mecanographique apportee a ce probleme. (auteurs)

  20. Assessment of diurnal systemic dose of agrochemicals in regulatory toxicity testing--an integrated approach without additional animal use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saghir, Shakil A; Bartels, Michael J; Rick, David L; McCoy, Alene T; Rasoulpour, Reza J; Ellis-Hutchings, Robert G; Sue Marty, M; Terry, Claire; Bailey, Jason P; Billington, Richard; Bus, James S

    2012-07-01

    Integrated toxicokinetics (TK) data provide information on the rate, extent and duration of systemic exposure across doses, species, strains, gender, and life stages within a toxicology program. While routine for pharmaceuticals, TK assessments of non-pharmaceuticals are still relatively rare, and have never before been included in a full range of guideline studies for a new agrochemical. In order to better understand the relationship between diurnal systemic dose (AUC(24h)) and toxicity of agrochemicals, TK analyses in the study animals is now included in all short- (excluding acute), medium- and long-term guideline mammalian toxicity studies including reproduction/developmental tests. This paper describes a detailed procedure for the implementation of TK in short-, medium- and long-term regulatory toxicity studies, without the use of satellite animals, conducted on three agrochemicals (X11422208, 2,4-D and X574175). In these studies, kinetically-derived maximum doses (KMD) from short-term studies instead of, or along with, maximum tolerated doses (MTD) were used for the selection of the high dose in subsequent longer-term studies. In addition to leveraging TK data to guide dose level selection, the integrated program was also used to select the most appropriate method of oral administration (i.e., gavage versus dietary) of test materials for rat and rabbit developmental toxicity studies. The integrated TK data obtained across toxicity studies (without the use of additional/satellite animals) provided data critical to understanding differences in response across doses, species, strains, sexes, and life stages. Such data should also be useful in mode of action studies and to improve human risk assessments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. A research on verification of the models in the CONTAIN Code and the uncertainty reduction method for containment integrity evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Moo Hwan; Seo, Kyoung Woo [Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-03-15

    The final goal of this research is to evaluate synthetic results of DCH issue and expose accurate methodology to assess containment integrity about operating PWR in Korea. This research is aimed to expose methodology for synthetic resolution of the DCH issue for KSNPP, and make the guide of DCH issue for containment integrity which will be used to design to nuclear power plants.

  2. A hybrid electron and photon IMRT planning technique that lowers normal tissue integral patient dose using standard hardware.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosca, Florin

    2012-06-01

    To present a mixed electron and photon IMRT planning technique using electron beams with an energy range of 6-22 MeV and standard hardware that minimizes integral dose to patients for targets as deep as 7.5 cm. Ten brain cases, two lung, a thyroid, an abdominal, and a parotid case were planned using two planning techniques: a photon-only IMRT (IMRT) versus a mixed modality treatment (E+IMRT) that includes an enface electron beam and a photon IMRT portion that ensures a uniform target coverage. The electron beam is delivered using a regular cutout placed in an electron cone. The electron energy was chosen to provide a good trade-off between minimizing integral dose and generating a uniform, deliverable plan. The authors choose electron energies that cover the deepest part of PTV with the 65%-70% isodose line. The normal tissue integral dose, the dose for ring structures around the PTV, and the volumes of the 75%, 50%, and 25% isosurfaces were used to compare the dose distributions generated by the two planning techniques. The normal tissue integral dose was lowered by about 20% by the E+IMRT plans compared to the photon-only IMRT ones for most studied cases. With the exception of lungs, the dose reduction associated to the E+IMRT plans was more pronounced further away from the target. The average dose ratio delivered to the 0-2 cm and the 2-4 cm ring structures for brain patients for the two planning techniques were 89.6% and 70.8%, respectively. The enhanced dose sparing away from the target for the brain patients can also be observed in the ratio of the 75%, 50%, and 25% isodose line volumes for the two techniques, which decreases from 85.5% to 72.6% and further to 65.1%, respectively. For lungs, the lateral electron beams used in the E+IMRT plans were perpendicular to the mostly anterior/posterior photon beams, generating much more conformal plans. The authors proved that even using the existing electron delivery hardware, a mixed electron/photon planning

  3. Recovery of the proliferative and functional integrity of mouse bone marrow in long-term cultures established after whole-body irradiation at different doses and dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bierkens, J.G.; Hendry, J.H.; Testa, N.G.

    1991-01-01

    Injury inflicted upon the bone marrow stroma following whole-body irradiation and its repair over a 1-year period has been assessed in murine long-term bone marrow cultures established at increasing time intervals after irradiation. Different doses at different dose rates (10 Gy at 0.05 cGy/min, 4.5 Gy and 10 Gy at 1.6 cGy/min, and 4 x 4.5 Gy [3 weeks between doses] at 60 cGy/min) were chosen so as to maximize differences in effect in the stroma. The cellularity of the adherent layer in long-term cultures established 1 month after irradiation was reduced by 40%-90% depending on the dose and dose rate. Simultaneous with the poor ability of the marrow to form adherent layers, the cumulative spleen colony-forming unit (CFU-S) and granulocyte-macrophage colony-forming cell (GM-CFC) production over a 7-week period was reduced to 0% and 30% of control cultures, respectively. The slow recovery of the adherent layer was paralleled by an increase in the numbers of CFU-S and GM-CFC in the supernatant. Cultures established from repeatedly irradiated mice performed poorly over the entire 1-year period. Whereas the regeneration of the stroma was near complete 1 year after irradiation, the CFU-S and GM-CFC levels reached only between 50% and 80% of control cultures, respectively. Also, the concentration of CFU-S and GM-CFC in the supernatant remained persistently lower in cultures established from irradiated mice as compared to control cultures. The levels of sulfated glycosaminoglycans, which have been implicated in the establishment of the functional integrity of the microenvironment, were not reduced in the adherent layers at any time after irradiation. These results indicate that the regeneration of the stroma is accompanied by an incomplete recovery of active hemopoiesis in vitro

  4. Comparison of IMRT Treatment Plans Between Linac and Helical Tomotherapy Based on Integral Dose and Inhomogeneity Index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Chengyu; Penagaricano, Jose; Papanikolaou, Niko

    2008-01-01

    Intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is an advanced treatment technology for radiation therapy. There are several treatment planning systems (TPS) that can generate IMRT plans. These plans may show different inhomogeneity indices to the planning target volume (PTV) and integral dose to organs at risk (OAR). In this study, we compared clinical cases covering different anatomical treatment sites, including head and neck, brain, lung, prostate, pelvis, and cranio-spinal axis. Two treatment plans were developed for each case using Pinnacle 3 and helical tomotherapy (HT) TPS. The inhomogeneity index of the PTV and the non-tumor integral dose (NTID) were calculated and compared for each case. Despite the difference in the number of effective beams, in several cases, NTID did not increase from HT as compared to the step-and-shoot delivery method. Six helical tomotherapy treatment plans for different treatment sites have been analyzed and compared against corresponding step-and-shoot plans generated with the Pinnacle 3 planning system. Results show that HT may produce plans with smaller integral doses to healthy organs, and fairly homogeneous doses to the target as compared to linac-based step-and-shoot IMRT planning in special treatment site such as cranio-spinal

  5. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  6. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  7. Optimization of total arc degree for stereotactic radiotherapy by using integral biologically effective dose and irradiated volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Do Hoon; Kim, Dae Yong; Lee, Myung Za; Chun, Ha Chung

    2001-01-01

    To find the optimal values of total arc degree to protect the normal brain tissue from high dose radiation in stereotactic radiotherapy planning. With Xknife-3 planning system and 4 MV linear accelerator, the authors planned under various values of parameters. One isocenter, 12, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mm of collimator diameters, 100 deg, 200 deg, 300 deg, 400 deg, 500 deg, 600 deg, of total arc degrees, and 30 deg or 45 deg of arc intervals were used. After the completion of planning, the plans were compared each other using V 50 (the volume of normal brain that is delivered high dose radiation) and integral biologically effective dose. At 30 deg of arc interval, the values of V 50 had the decreased pattern with the increase of total arc degree in any collimator diameter. At 45 deg arc interval, up to 400 deg of total arc degree, the values of V 50 decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but at 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees, the values increased. At 30 deg of arc interval, integral biologically effective dose showed the decreased pattern with the increase of total arc degree in any collimator diameter. At 45 deg arc interval with less than 40 mm collimator diameter, the integral biologically effective dose decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but with 50 and 60 mm of collimator diameters, up to 400 deg of total arc degree, integral biologically effective dose decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but at 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees, the values increased. In the stereotactic radiotherapy planning for brain lesions, planning with 400 deg of total arc degree is optimal. Especially, when the larger collimator more than 50 mm diameter should be used, the uses of 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees make the increase of V 50 and integral biologically effective dose, Therefore stereotactic radiotherapy planning using 400 deg of total arc degree can increase the therapeutic ratio and produce the effective outcome

  8. The effect of low dose ionizing radiation on homeostasis and functional integrity in an organotypic human skin model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neubeck, Claere von [German Cancer Consortium DKTK partner site Dresden, OncoRay - National Center for Radiation Research in Oncology, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, Fetscherstrasse 74, 01307 Dresden (Germany); German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Geniza, Matthew J. [Molecular and Cellular Biology Program, Oregon State University, Corvallis OR 97331 (United States); Kauer, Paula M.; Robinson, R. Joe; Chrisler, William B. [Health Impacts and Exposure Science, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA 99352 (United States); Sowa, Marianne B., E-mail: marianne.sowa@pnnl.gov [Health Impacts and Exposure Science, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA 99352 (United States)

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Low doses of high LET radiation influence skin homeostasis. • Effects on proliferation and differentiation profiles are LET dependent. • Skin barrier function is not compromised following low dose exposure. - Abstract: Outside the protection of Earth's atmosphere, astronauts are exposed to low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. Future NASA plans for deep space missions or a permanent settlement on the moon are limited by the health risks associated with space radiation exposures. There is a paucity of direct epidemiological data for low dose exposures to space radiation-relevant high LET ions. Health risk models are used to estimate the risk for such exposures, though these models are based on high dose experiments. There is increasing evidence, however, that low and high dose exposures result in different signaling events at the molecular level, and may involve different response mechanisms. Further, despite their low abundance, high LET particles have been identified as the major contributor to health risk during manned space flight. The human skin is exposed in every external radiation scenario, making it an ideal epithelial tissue model in which to study radiation induced effects. Here, we exposed an in vitro three dimensional (3-D) human organotypic skin tissue model to low doses of high LET oxygen (O), silicon (Si) and iron (Fe) ions. We measured proliferation and differentiation profiles in the skin tissue and examined the integrity of the skin's barrier function. We discuss the role of secondary particles in changing the proportion of cells receiving a radiation dose, emphasizing the possible impact on radiation-induced health issues in astronauts.

  9. Integrated boost IMRT with FET-PET-adapted local dose escalation in glioblastomas. Results of a prospective phase II study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piroth, M.D.; Pinkawa, M.; Holy, R.; Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH

    2012-01-01

    Dose escalations above 60 Gy based on MRI have not led to prognostic benefits in glioblastoma patients yet. With positron emission tomography (PET) using [ 18 F]fluorethyl-L-tyrosine (FET), tumor coverage can be optimized with the option of regional dose escalation in the area of viable tumor tissue. In a prospective phase II study (January 2008 to December 2009), 22 patients (median age 55 years) received radiochemotherapy after surgery. The radiotherapy was performed as an MRI and FET-PET-based integrated-boost intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). The prescribed dose was 72 and 60 Gy (single dose 2.4 and 2.0 Gy, respectively) for the FET-PET- and MR-based PTV-FET (72 Gy) and PTV-MR (60 Gy) . FET-PET and MRI were performed routinely for follow-up. Quality of life and cognitive aspects were recorded by the EORTC-QLQ-C30/QLQ Brain20 and Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE), while the therapy-related toxicity was recorded using the CTC3.0 and RTOG scores. Median overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were 14.8 and 7.8 months, respectively. All local relapses were detected at least partly within the 95% dose volume of PTV-MR (60 Gy) . No relevant radiotherapy-related side effects were observed (excepted alopecia). In 2 patients, a pseudoprogression was observed in the MRI. Tumor progression could be excluded by FET-PET and was confirmed in further MRI and FET-PET imaging. No significant changes were observed in MMSE scores and in the EORTC QLQ-C30/QLQ-Brain20 questionnaires. Our dose escalation concept with a total dose of 72 Gy, based on FET-PET, did not lead to a survival benefit. Acute and late toxicity were not increased, compared with historical controls and published dose-escalation studies. (orig.)

  10. Integrated boost IMRT with FET-PET-adapted local dose escalation in glioblastomas. Results of a prospective phase II study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piroth, M.D.; Pinkawa, M.; Holy, R. [RWTH Aachen University Hospital (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH (DE). Juelich-Aachen Research Alliance (JARA) - Section JARA-Brain] (and others)

    2012-04-15

    Dose escalations above 60 Gy based on MRI have not led to prognostic benefits in glioblastoma patients yet. With positron emission tomography (PET) using [{sup 18}F]fluorethyl-L-tyrosine (FET), tumor coverage can be optimized with the option of regional dose escalation in the area of viable tumor tissue. In a prospective phase II study (January 2008 to December 2009), 22 patients (median age 55 years) received radiochemotherapy after surgery. The radiotherapy was performed as an MRI and FET-PET-based integrated-boost intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). The prescribed dose was 72 and 60 Gy (single dose 2.4 and 2.0 Gy, respectively) for the FET-PET- and MR-based PTV-FET{sub (72 Gy)} and PTV-MR{sub (60 Gy)}. FET-PET and MRI were performed routinely for follow-up. Quality of life and cognitive aspects were recorded by the EORTC-QLQ-C30/QLQ Brain20 and Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE), while the therapy-related toxicity was recorded using the CTC3.0 and RTOG scores. Median overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were 14.8 and 7.8 months, respectively. All local relapses were detected at least partly within the 95% dose volume of PTV-MR{sub (60 Gy)}. No relevant radiotherapy-related side effects were observed (excepted alopecia). In 2 patients, a pseudoprogression was observed in the MRI. Tumor progression could be excluded by FET-PET and was confirmed in further MRI and FET-PET imaging. No significant changes were observed in MMSE scores and in the EORTC QLQ-C30/QLQ-Brain20 questionnaires. Our dose escalation concept with a total dose of 72 Gy, based on FET-PET, did not lead to a survival benefit. Acute and late toxicity were not increased, compared with historical controls and published dose-escalation studies. (orig.)

  11. Feasibility study on an integrated AEC-grid device for the optimization of image quality and exposure dose in mammography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyo-Tae; Yun, Ryang-Young; Han, Moo-Jae; Heo, Ye-Ji; Song, Yong-Keun; Heo, Sung-Wook; Oh, Kyeong-Min; Park, Sung-Kwang

    2017-10-01

    Currently, in the radiation diagnosis field, mammography is used for the early detection of breast cancer. In addition, studies are being conducted on a grid to produce high-quality images. Although the grid ratio of the grid, which affects the scattering removal rate, must be increased to improve image quality, it increases the total exposure dose. While the use of automatic exposure control is recommended to minimize this problem, existing mammography equipment, unlike general radiography equipment, is mounted on the back of a detector. Therefore, the device is greatly affected by the detector and supporting device, and it is difficult to control the exposure dose. Accordingly, in this research, an integrated AEC-grid device that simultaneously performs AEC and grid functions was used to minimize the unnecessary exposure dose while removing scattering, thereby realizing superior image quality.

  12. A tiered approach for integrating exposure and dosimetry with in vitro dose-response data in the modern risk assessment paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    High-throughput (HT) risk screening approaches apply in vitro dose-response data to estimate potential health risks that arise from exposure to chemicals. However, much uncertainty is inherent in relating bioactivities observed in an in vitro system to the perturbations of biolog...

  13. Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, Rahul; van der Tol, Christiaan; Hamm, Nicholas Alexander Samuel; Stein, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP) data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT), ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC), ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf), canopy water interception coefficient (Wint), fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR), and effective soil rooting depth (SD) characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

  14. Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Raj

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT, ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC, ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf, canopy water interception coefficient (Wint, fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR, and effective soil rooting depth (SD characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

  15. Approaches of eco-innovation: Uncertainty assessment and the integration of green technology foresight and life cycle assessment as a policy tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, M.

    2005-01-01

    The perspective of eco-innovation is gaining increasing attention in European policy development as well as in a number of individual countries. As basis for this lies the acknowledgement that we on the one hand live in a technology andinnovation-oriented society and that some new technologies......-innovation in practice is made operational. A key issue in eco-innovation is to improveassessments and discussions of uncertainties and new environmental risks in connection with innovative technology developments. Approaches to this have as support for policy development processes been combined with environmentally...... oriented technologyforesight methods integrated with the perspective of life cycle assessments of new technologies. The paper describes a number of examples of these approaches and discusses further perspectives for an eco-innovation policy....

  16. Visualization of uncertainty and ensemble data: Exploration of climate modeling and weather forecast data with integrated ViSUS-CDAT systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, Kristin; Pascucci, Valerio; Johhson, Chris; Wilson, Andrew; Bremer, Peer-Timo; Williams, Dean; Doutriaux, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Climate scientists and meteorologists are working towards a better understanding of atmospheric conditions and global climate change. To explore the relationships present in numerical predictions of the atmosphere, ensemble datasets are produced that combine time- and spatially-varying simulations generated using multiple numeric models, sampled input conditions, and perturbed parameters. These data sets mitigate as well as describe the uncertainty present in the data by providing insight into the effects of parameter perturbation, sensitivity to initial conditions, and inconsistencies in model outcomes. As such, massive amounts of data are produced, creating challenges both in data analysis and in visualization. This work presents an approach to understanding ensembles by using a collection of statistical descriptors to summarize the data, and displaying these descriptors using variety of visualization techniques which are familiar to domain experts. The resulting techniques are integrated into the ViSUS/Climate Data and Analysis Tools (CDAT) system designed to provide a directly accessible, complex visualization framework to atmospheric researchers.

  17. Integrated age-structured length-based stock assessment model with uncertain process variances, structural uncertainty and environmental covariates: case of Central Baltic herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäntyniemi, Samu; Uusitalo, Laura; Peltonen, Heikki

    2013-01-01

    We developed a generic, age-structured, state-space stock assessment model that can be used as a platform for including information elicited from stakeholders. The model tracks the mean size-at-age and then uses it to explain rates of natural and fishing mortality. The fishery selectivity is divided...... to two components, which makes it possible to model the active seeking of the fleet for certain sizes of fish, as well as the selectivity of the gear itself. The model can account for uncertainties that are not currently accounted for in state-of-the-art models for integrated assessments: (i) The form...... of the stock–recruitment function is considered uncertain and is accounted for by using Bayesian model averaging. (ii) In addition to recruitment variation, process variation in natural mortality, growth parameters, and fishing mortality can also be treated as uncertain parameters...

  18. A research on the verification of models used in the computational codes and the uncertainty reduction method for the containment integrity evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Moo Hwan; Seo, Kyoung Woo [POSTECH, Pohang (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-03-15

    In the probability approach, the calculated CCFPs of all the scenarios were zero, which meant that it was expected that for all the accident scenarios the maximum pressure load induced by DCH was lower than the containment failure pressure obtained from the fragility curve. Thus, it can be stated that the KSNP containment is robust to the DCH threat. And uncertainty of computer codes used to be two (deterministic and probabilistic) approaches were reduced by the sensitivity tests and the research with the verification and comparison of the DCH models in each code. So, this research was to evaluate synthetic result of DCH issue and expose accurate methodology to assess containment integrity about operating PWR in Korea.

  19. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  20. Uncertainty analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.

    1987-01-01

    The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site

  1. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  2. Investigation of Reduction of the Uncertainty of Monte Carlo Dose Calculations in Oncor® Clinical Linear Accelerator Simulation Using the DBS Variance Reduction Technique in Monte Carlo Code BEAMnrc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Asadi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To study the benefits of Directional Bremsstrahlung Splitting (DBS dose variance reduction technique in BEAMnrc Monte Carlo (MC code for Oncor® linac at 6MV and 18MV energies. Materials and Method: A MC model of Oncor® linac was built using BEAMnrc MC Code and verified by the measured data for 6MV and 18MV energies of various field sizes. Then Oncor® machine was modeled running DBS technique, and the efficiency of total fluence and spatial fluence for electron and photon, the efficiency of dose variance reduction of MC calculations for PDD on the central beam axis and lateral dose profile across the nominal field was measured and compared. Result: With applying DBS technique, the total fluence of electron and photon increased in turn 626.8 (6MV and 983.4 (6MV, and 285.6 (18MV and 737.8 (18MV, the spatial fluence of electron and photon improved in turn 308.6±1.35% (6MV and 480.38±0.43% (6MV, and 153±0.9% (18MV and 462.6±0.27% (18MV. Moreover, by running DBS technique, the efficiency of dose variance reduction for PDD MC dose calculations before maximum dose point and after dose maximum point enhanced 187.8±0.68% (6MV and 184.6±0.65% (6MV, 156±0.43% (18MV and 153±0.37% (18MV, respectively, and the efficiency of MC calculations for lateral dose profile remarkably on the central beam axis and across the treatment field raised in turn 197±0.66% (6MV and 214.6±0.73% (6MV, 175±0.36% (18MV and 181.4±0.45% (18MV. Conclusion: Applying dose variance reduction technique of DBS for modeling Oncor® linac with using BEAMnrc MC Code surprisingly improved the fluence of electron and photon, and it therefore enhanced the efficiency of dose variance reduction for MC calculations. As a result, running DBS in different kinds of MC simulation Codes might be beneficent in reducing the uncertainty of MC calculations. 

  3. Use of cadmium sulphide to measure integrated dose in short-time irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nimnual, S.

    1975-01-01

    An experiment was made to measure the dose from a short burst of X-rays in the order of 1 second or less by means of the cadmium sulphide photoconductive cell. If protected from light, the CdS cell has a very high resistance such that it does not discharge a capacitor appreciably. But during irradiation, the resistance decreases temporarily and an amount of charge will leak from the capacitor through the Ca S cell. The result to this experiment shows that the principle works very well but it is necessary to add another fixed high resistance of about 10 7 ohms into the circuit in order to get results independent of the dose-rate. The equipment used in this experiment can measure a dose as low as 6 m R

  4. Medical Humanities: The Rx for Uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofri, Danielle

    2017-12-01

    While medical students often fear the avalanche of knowledge they are required to learn during training, it is learning to translate that knowledge into wisdom that is the greatest challenge of becoming a doctor. Part of that challenge is learning to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty, a difficult feat for doctors who are taught to question anything that is not evidence based or peer reviewed. The medical humanities specialize in this ambiguity and uncertainty, which are hallmarks of actual clinical practice but rarely addressed in medical education. The humanities also force reflection and contemplation-skills that are crucial to thoughtful decision making and to personal wellness. Beyond that, the humanities add a dose of joy and beauty to a training process that is notoriously frugal in these departments. Well integrated, the humanities can be the key to transforming medical knowledge into clinical wisdom.

  5. Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

    2017-12-01

    Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

  6. Integrating Local Experiential and Hydrometeorological Data to Understand Knowledge Uncertainties and to Build Resilience to Flooding in Two Puerto Rican Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, M.; Nytch, C. J.; Branoff, B.

    2016-12-01

    Socio-hydrological studies that explore feedbacks between social and biophysical processes related to flood risk can help managers identify strategies that increase a community's freshwater security. However, knowledge uncertainty due to coarse spatio-temporal coverage of hydrological monitoring data, missing riverine discharge and precipitation records, assumptions of flood risk models, and effects of urbanization, can limit the ability of these studies to isolate hydrological responses to social drivers of flooding and a changing climate. Local experiential knowledge can provide much needed information about 1) actual flood spatio-temporal patterns, 2) human impacts and perceptions of flood events, and 3) mechanisms to validate flood risk studies and understand key social elements of the system. We addressed these knowledge gaps by comparing the location and timing of flood events described in resident interviews and resident drawn maps (total = 97) from two San Juan communities with NOAA and USGS precipitation and riverine discharge data archives, and FEMA flood maps. Analyses of five focal flood events revealed 1) riverine monitoring data failed to record a major flood event caused by localized blockage of the river, 2) residents did not mention multiple extreme riverine discharge events, 3) resident and FEMA flood maps matched closely but resident maps provided finer spatial information about frequency of flooding, and 4) only a small percentage of residents remembered the dates of flood events. Local knowledge provided valuable social data about flood impacts on human economic and physical/psychological wellbeing, perceptions about factors causing flooding, and what residents use as sources of flood information. A simple mechanism or tool for residents to record their flood experiences in real-time will address the uncertainties in local knowledge and improve social memory. The integration of local experiential knowledge with simulated and empirical hydro

  7. Radiation Doses to Members of the U.S. Population from Ubiquitous Radionuclides in the Body: Part 3, Results, Variability, and Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, David J.; Strom, Daniel J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper is part three of a three-part series investigating annual effective doses to residents of the United States from intakes of ubiquitous radionuclides, including radionuclides occurring naturally, radionuclides whose concentrations are technologically enhanced, and anthropogenic radionuclides. The radionuclides of interest are the 238 U series (14 nuclides), the actinium series (headed by 235 U; 11 nuclides), and the 232 Th series (11 nuclides); primordial radionuclides 87 Rb and 40 K; cosmogenic and fallout radionuclides 14 C and 3 H; and purely anthropogenic radionuclides 137 Cs- 137m Ba, 129 I and 90 Sr- 90 Y. This series of papers explicitly excludes intakes from inhaling 222 Rn, 220 Rn, and their short-lived decay products; it also excludes intakes of radionuclides in occupational and medical settings. Part one reviewed, summarized, characterized, and grouped all published and some unpublished data for U.S. residents on ubiquitous radionuclide concentrations in tissues and organs. Part two described the methods used to organize the data collected in part one and segregate it into the ages and genders defined by the study, imputed missing values from the existing data, apportioned activity in bone, and imputed activity in hollow organ contents and the remainder of the body. This paper estimates equivalent doses to target tissues from source regions and maps target tissues to lists of tissues with International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP) tissue-weighting factors or to surrogate tissue regions when there is no direct match. Effective doses, using ICRP tissue-weighting factors recommended in 1977, 1990, and 2007, are then calculated, and an upper bound of variability of the effective dose is estimated by calculating the average coefficients of variation (CV), assuming all variance is due to variability. Most of the data were for adult males, whose average annual effective dose is estimated to be 337 (micro)Sv y -1 (CV = 0.65, geometric mean

  8. Clinical and symptomatological study of pigs subjected to a lethal dose of integral gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaiman, M.; Guenet, J.-L.; Maas, J.; Nizza, P.

    1966-05-01

    Results are reported from a clinical and haematological study on a Corsican species of pigs wholly exposed to an approximately lethal dose of γ radiation. The aim of this work was to examine the changes in the irradiation syndrome of irradiation for pigs to make it thus possible to devise further experiments, in particular in the therapeutic field. The dose received was 285 rads (measured as the absorption in the vertical antero-posterior medial plane). Data are presented on cyto-haematological changes in the blood circulating immediately after irradiation, and followed up to death, and changes in the medullary cytology after irradiation. The clinical picture of lethal radiation injury in swine is described. (authors) [fr

  9. Online dose rate monitoring: Better information by using the IRMA concept (Integral Radiological Multidetector Arrays)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genrich, V.

    1989-01-01

    A new GM detector system has been developed for online environmental monitoring. The approach is unorthodox, but simple: A) Take a set of radiological probes and feed all their information to an 'intelligent' front-end. B) Elaborate some algorithms, so that the system will give out just one gamma dose rate (running over more than nine decades). C) If necessary, associate some additional sensors, and the system will exhibit better discriminating qualities for the detection of artificial nuclides in the environment. (orig.)

  10. Step-and-Shoot versus Compensator-based IMRT: Calculation and Comparison of Integral Dose in Non-tumoral and Target Organs in Prostate Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaveh Shirani Tak Abi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT is becoming an increasingly routine treatment method. IMRT can be delivered by use of conventional Multileaf Collimators (MLCs and/or physical compensators. One of the most important factors in selecting an appropriate IMRT technique is integral dose. Integral dose is equal to the mean energy deposited in the total irradiated volume of the patient. The aim of the present study was to calculate and compare the integral dose in normal and target organs in two different procedures of IMRT: Step-and-Shoot (SAS and compensator-based IMRT. Materials and Methods In this comparative study, five patients with prostate cancer were selected. Module Integrated Radiotherapy System was applied, using three energy ranges. In both treatment planning methods, the integral dose dramatically decreased by increasing energy. Results Comparison of two treatment methods showed that on average, the integral dose of body in SAS radiation therapy was about 1.62% lower than that reported in compensator-based IMRT. In planning target volume, rectum, bladder, and left and right femoral heads, the integral doses for SAS method were 1.01%, 1.02%, 1.11%, 1.47%, and 1.40% lower than compensator-based IMRT, respectively. Conclusion Considering the treatment conditions, the definition of dose volume constraints for healthy tissues, and the equal volume of organs in both treatment methods, SAS radiation therapy by providing a lower integral dose seems to be more advantageous and efficient for prostate cancer treatment, compared to compensator-based IMRT.

  11. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  12. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  13. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  14. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  15. Sustainability Instruction in High Doses: Results From Incorporation of Multiple InTeGrate Modules Into an Environmental Science Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rademacher, L. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future (InTeGrate) community has developed extensive courses and modules designed for broad adoption into geoscience classrooms in diverse environments. I participated in a three-semester research project designed to test the efficacy of incorporating "high doses" (minimum 3 modules or 18 class periods) of InTeGrate materials into a course, in my case, an introductory environmental science class. InTeGrate materials were developed by groups of instructors from a range of institutions across the US. These materials include an emphasis on systems thinking, interdisciplinary approaches, and sustainability, and those themes are woven throughout the modules. The three semesters included a control in which no InTeGrate materials were used, a pilot in which InTeGrate materials were tested, and a treatment semesters in which tested materials were modified as needed and fully implemented into the course. Data were collected each semester on student attitudes using the InTeGrate Attitudinal Instrument (pre and post), a subset of Geoscience Literacy Exam questions (pre and post), and a series of assessments and essay exam questions (post only). Although results suggest that learning gains were mixed, changes in attitudes pre- and post-instruction were substantial. Changes in attitudes regarding the importance of sustainable employers, the frequency of self-reported individual sustainable actions, and motivation level for creating a sustainable society were observed in the control and treatment semesters, with the treatment semester showing the greatest gains. Importantly, one of the biggest differences between the control and treatment semesters is the reported impact that the course had on influencing students' sustainable behaviors. The treatment semester course impacted students' sustainable behaviors far more than the control semester.

  16. Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and conventional three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for high-grade gliomas: Does IMRT increase the integral dose to normal brain?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermanto, Ulrich; Frija, Erik K.; Lii, MingFwu J.; Chang, Eric L.; Mahajan, Anita; Woo, Shiao Y.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatment increases the total integral dose of nontarget tissue relative to the conventional three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) technique for high-grade gliomas. Methods and Materials: Twenty patients treated with 3D-CRT for glioblastoma multiforme were selected for a comparative dosimetric evaluation with IMRT. Original target volumes, organs at risk (OAR), and dose-volume constraints were used for replanning with IMRT. Predicted isodose distributions, cumulative dose-volume histograms of target volumes and OAR, normal tissue integral dose, target coverage, dose conformity, and normal tissue sparing with 3D-CRT and IMRT planning were compared. Statistical analyses were performed to determine differences. Results: In all 20 patients, IMRT maintained equivalent target coverage, improved target conformity (conformity index [CI] 95% 1.52 vs. 1.38, p mean by 19.8% and D max by 10.7%), optic chiasm (D mean by 25.3% and D max by 22.6%), right optic nerve (D mean by 37.3% and D max by 28.5%), and left optic nerve (D mean by 40.6% and D max by 36.7%), p ≤ 0.01. This was achieved without increasing the total nontarget integral dose by greater than 0.5%. Overall, total integral dose was reduced by 7-10% with IMRT, p < 0.001, without significantly increasing the 0.5-5 Gy low-dose volume. Conclusions: These results indicate that IMRT treatment for high-grade gliomas allows for improved target conformity, better critical tissue sparing, and importantly does so without increasing integral dose and the volume of normal tissue exposed to low doses of radiation

  17. Population pharmacokinetic model of THC integrates oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dosing and characterizes short- and long-term pharmacokinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heuberger, Jules A A C; Guan, Zheng; Oyetayo, Olubukayo-Opeyemi; Klumpers, Linda; Morrison, Paul D; Beumer, Tim L; van Gerven, Joop M A; Cohen, Adam F; Freijer, Jan

    2015-02-01

    Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannobinol (THC), the main psychoactive compound of Cannabis, is known to have a long terminal half-life. However, this characteristic is often ignored in pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of THC, which may affect the accuracy of predictions in different pharmacologic areas. For therapeutic use for example, it is important to accurately describe the terminal phase of THC to describe accumulation of the drug. In early clinical research, the THC challenge test can be optimized through more accurate predictions of the dosing sequence and the wash-out between occasions in a crossover setting, which is mainly determined by the terminal half-life of the compound. The purpose of this study is to better quantify the long-term pharmacokinetics of THC. A population-based PK model for THC was developed describing the profile up to 48 h after an oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dose of THC in humans. In contrast to earlier models, the current model integrates all three major administration routes and covers the long terminal phase of THC. Results show that THC has a fast initial and intermediate half-life, while the apparent terminal half-life is long (21.5 h), with a clearance of 38.8 L/h. Because the current model characterizes the long-term pharmacokinetics, it can be used to assess the accumulation of THC in a multiple-dose setting and to forecast concentration profiles of the drug under many different dosing regimens or administration routes. Additionally, this model could provide helpful insights into the THC challenge test used for the development of (novel) compounds targeting the cannabinoid system for different therapeutic applications and could improve decision making in future clinical trials.

  18. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  19. Low-dose non-enhanced CT versus full-dose contrast-enhanced CT in integrated PET/CT studies for the diagnosis of uterine cancer recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kitajima, Kazuhiro [Institute of Biomedical Research and Innovation, Department of PET Diagnosis, Kobe (Japan); Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Kobe (Japan); Suzuki, Kayo [Institute of Biomedical Research and Innovation, Department of PET Diagnosis, Kobe (Japan); Nakamoto, Yuji [Kyoto University Hospital, Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Kyoto (Japan); Onishi, Yumiko; Sakamoto, Setsu; Sugimura, Kazuro [Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Kobe (Japan); Senda, Michio [Institute of Biomedical Research and Innovation, Department of Molecular Imaging, Kobe (Japan); Kita, Masato [Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Kobe (Japan)

    2010-08-15

    To evaluate low-dose non-enhanced CT (ldCT) and full-dose contrast-enhanced CT (ceCT) in integrated {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT studies for restaging of uterine cancer. A group of 100 women who had undergone treatment for uterine cervical (n=55) or endometrial cancer (n=45) underwent a conventional PET/CT scans with ldCT, and then a ceCT scan. Two observers retrospectively reviewed and interpreted the PET/ldCT and PET/ceCT images in consensus using a three-point grading scale (negative, equivocal, or positive) per patient and per lesion. Final diagnoses were obtained by histopathological examination, or clinical follow-up for at least 6 months. Patient-based analysis showed that the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of PET/ceCT were 90% (27/30), 97% (68/70) and 95% (95/100), respectively, whereas those of PET/ldCT were 83% (25/30), 94% (66/70) and 91% (91/100), respectively. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy did not significantly differ between two methods (McNemar test, p=0.48, p=0.48, and p=0.13, respectively). There were 52 sites of lesion recurrence: 12 pelvic lymph node (LN), 11 local recurrence, 8 peritoneum, 7 abdominal LN, 5 lung, 3 supraclavicular LN, 3 liver, 2 mediastinal LN, and 1 muscle and bone. The grading results for the 52 sites of recurrence were: negative 5, equivocal 0 and positive 47 for PET/ceCT, and negative 5, equivocal 4 and positive 43 for PET/ldCT, respectively. Four equivocal regions by PET/ldCT (local recurrence, pelvic LN metastasis, liver metastasis and muscle metastasis) were correctly interpreted as positive by PET/ceCT. PET/ceCT is an accurate imaging modality for the assessment of uterine cancer recurrence. Its use reduces the frequency of equivocal interpretations. (orig.)

  20. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  1. Quantification of design margins and safety factors based on the prediction uncertainty in tritium production rate from fusion integral experiments of the USDOE/JAERI collaborative program on fusion blanket neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youssef, M.Z.; Konno, C.; Maekawa, F.; Ikeda, Y.; Kosako, K.; Nakagawa, M.; Mori, T.; Maekawa, H.

    1995-01-01

    Several fusion integral experiments were performed within a collaboration between the USA and Japan on fusion breeder neutronics aimed at verifying the prediction accuracy of key neutronics parameters in a fusion reactor blanket based on current neutron transport codes and basic nuclear databases. The focus has been on the tritium production rate (TRP) as an important design parameter to resolve the issue of tritium self-sufficiency in a fusion reactor. In this paper, the calculational and experimental uncertainties (errors) in local TPR in each experiment performed i were interpolated and propagated to estimate the prediction uncertainty u i in the line-integrated TPR and its standard deviation σ i . The measured data are based on Li-glass and NE213 detectors. From the quantities u i and σ i , normalized density functions (NDFs) were constructed, considering all the experiments and their associated analyses performed independently by the UCLA and JAERI. Several statistical parameters were derived, including the mean prediction uncertainties u and the possible spread ±σ u around them. Design margins and safety factors were derived from these NDFs. Distinction was made between the results obtained by UCLA and JAERI and between calculational results based on the discrete ordinates and Monte Carlo methods. The prediction uncertainties, their standard deviations and the design margins and safety factors were derived for the line-integrated TPR from Li-6 T 6 , and Li-7 T 7 . These parameters were used to estimate the corresponding uncertainties and safety factor for the line-integrated TPR from natural lithium T n . (orig.)

  2. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  3. Integrating urban recharge uncertainty into standard groundwater modeling practice: A case study on water main break predictions for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer, Austin, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinner, K.; Teasley, R. L.

    2016-12-01

    Groundwater models serve as integral tools for understanding flow processes and informing stakeholders and policy makers in management decisions. Historically, these models tended towards a deterministic nature, relying on historical data to predict and inform future decisions based on model outputs. This research works towards developing a stochastic method of modeling recharge inputs from pipe main break predictions in an existing groundwater model, which subsequently generates desired outputs incorporating future uncertainty rather than deterministic data. The case study for this research is the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer near Austin, Texas. Researchers and water resource professionals have modeled the Edwards Aquifer for decades due to its high water quality, fragile ecosystem, and stakeholder interest. The original case study and model that this research is built upon was developed as a co-design problem with regional stakeholders and the model outcomes are generated specifically for communication with policy makers and managers. Recently, research in the Barton Springs segment demonstrated a significant contribution of urban, or anthropogenic, recharge to the aquifer, particularly during dry period, using deterministic data sets. Due to social and ecological importance of urban water loss to recharge, this study develops an evaluation method to help predicted pipe breaks and their related recharge contribution within the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. To benefit groundwater management decision processes, the performance measures captured in the model results, such as springflow, head levels, storage, and others, were determined by previous work in elicitation of problem framing to determine stakeholder interests and concerns. The results of the previous deterministic model and the stochastic model are compared to determine gains to stakeholder knowledge through the additional modeling

  4. Extent of radiosensitization by the PARP inhibitor olaparib depends on its dose, the radiation dose and the integrity of the homologous recombination pathway of tumor cells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Caroline V. M.; de Haan, Rosemarie; Hageman, Floor; Oostendorp, Tim P. D.; Carli, Annalisa L. E.; O'Connor, Mark J.; Jonkers, Jos; Verheij, Marcel; van den Brekel, Michiel W.; Vens, Conchita

    2015-01-01

    The PARP inhibitor olaparib is currently tested in clinical phase 1 trials to define safe dose levels in combination with RT. However, certain clinically relevant insights are still lacking. Here we test, while comparing to single agent activity, the olaparib dose and genetic background dependence

  5. Extent of radiosensitization by the PARP inhibitor olaparib depends on its dose, the radiation dose and the integrity of the homologous recombination pathway of tumor cells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, C.V.M.; Haan, R. den; Hageman, F.; Oostendorp, T.P.; Carli, A.L.; O'Connor, M.J.; Jonkers, J.; Verheij, M.; Brekel, M.W. van den; Vens, C.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The PARP inhibitor olaparib is currently tested in clinical phase 1 trials to define safe dose levels in combination with RT. However, certain clinically relevant insights are still lacking. Here we test, while comparing to single agent activity, the olaparib dose and genetic

  6. Extent of radiosensitization by the PARP inhibitor olaparib depends on its dose, the radiation dose and the integrity of the homologous recombination pathway of tumor cells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, C.V.M.; de Haan, R.; Hageman, F.; Oostendorp, T.P.D.; Carli, A.L.E.; O'Connor, M.J.; Jonkers, J.; Verheij, M.; van den Brekel, M.W.; Vens, C.

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose The PARP inhibitor olaparib is currently tested in clinical phase 1 trials to define safe dose levels in combination with RT. However, certain clinically relevant insights are still lacking. Here we test, while comparing to single agent activity, the olaparib dose and genetic

  7. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  8. Uncertainties in Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessments by Sub-setting GCMs Based on Annual as well as Crop Growing Period under Rice Based Farming System of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Panwar, A. S.; Meena, M. S.; Singh, S. V.; Singh, B.; Paudel, G. P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Ruane, A. C.; McDermid, S.; Boote, K. J.; Porter, C.; Valdivia, R. O.

    2016-12-01

    Integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity is a challenge to the scientific community due to uncertainties of input data, particularly the climate, soil, crop calibration and socio-economic dataset. However, the uncertainty due to selection of GCMs is the major source due to complex underlying processes involved in initial as well as the boundary conditions dealt in solving the air-sea interactions. Under Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Indo-Gangetic Plains Regional Research Team investigated the uncertainties caused due to selection of GCMs through sub-setting based on annual as well as crop-growth period of rice-wheat systems in AgMIP Integrated Assessment methodology. The AgMIP Phase II protocols were used to study the linking of climate-crop-economic models for two study sites Meerut and Karnal to analyse the sensitivity of current production systems to climate change. Climate Change Projections were made using 29 CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 during mid-century period (2040-2069). Two crop models (APSIM & DSSAT) were used. TOA-MD economic model was used for integrated assessment. Based on RAPs (Representative Agricultural Pathways), some of the parameters, which are not possible to get through modeling, derived from literature and interactions with stakeholders incorporated into the TOA-MD model for integrated assessment.

  9. Simulation of worst-case operating conditions for integrated circuits operating in a total dose environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhuva, B.L.

    1987-01-01

    Degradations in the circuit performance created by the radiation exposure of integrated circuits are so unique and abnormal that thorough simulation and testing of VLSI circuits is almost impossible, and new ways to estimate the operating performance in a radiation environment must be developed. The principal goal of this work was the development of simulation techniques for radiation effects on semiconductor devices. The mixed-mode simulation approach proved to be the most promising. The switch-level approach is used to identify the failure mechanisms and critical subcircuits responsible for operational failure along with worst-case operating conditions during and after irradiation. For precise simulations of critical subcircuits, SPICE is used. The identification of failure mechanisms enables the circuit designer to improve the circuit's performance and failure-exposure level. Identification of worst-case operating conditions during and after irradiation reduces the complexity of testing VLSI circuits for radiation environments. The results of test circuits for failure simulations using a conventional simulator and the new simulator showed significant time savings using the new simulator. The savings in simulation time proved to be circuit topology-dependent. However, for large circuits, the simulation time proved to be orders of magnitude smaller than simulation time for conventional simulators

  10. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  11. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

    2014-01-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

  12. SU-E-T-166: Evaluation of Integral Dose in Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy for Head and Neck Cancer Patient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Basheer, A; Hunag, J; Kaminski, J; Dasher, B; Howington, J; Stewart, J; Martin, D; Kong, F; Jin, J [Georgia Regents University, Augusta, GA (Georgia)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) usually achieves higher conformity of radiation doses to targets and less delivery time than Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT). We hypothesized that VMAT will increase integral dose (ID) to patients which will decrease the count of white blood count (WBC) lymphocytes, and consequently has a subsequent impact on the immune system. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ID to patients undergoing IMRT and VMAT for Head and Neck cancers and its impact on the immune system. Methods: As a pilot study, 30 head and neck patients who received 9-fields IMRT or 3-arcs Radip-Arcbased VMAT were included in this study. Ten of these patients who received the VMAT plans were re-planned using IMRT with the same objectives. ID was calculated for all cases. All patients also had a baseline WBC obtained prior to treatment, and 3 sets of labs drawn during the course of radiation treatment. Results: For the 10 re-planned patients, the mean ID was 13.3 Gy/voxel (range 10.2–17.5 Gy/voxel) for the 9-fields IMRT plans, and was 15.9 Gy/voxel (range 12.4-20.9 Gy/voxel) for the 3-Arc VMAT plan (p=0.01). The integral dose was significant correlated with reducing WBC count during RT even when controlling for concurrent chemotherapy (R square =0.56, p=0.008). Conclusion: Although VMAT can deliver higher radiation dose conformality to targets, this benefit is achieved generally at the cost of greater integral doses to normal tissue outside the planning target volume (PTV). Lower WBC counts during RT were associated with higher Integral doses even when controlling for concurrent chemotherapy. This study is ongoing in our Institution to exam the impact of integral doses and WBC on overall survival.

  13. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    performance difficult. Likewise, a demonstration of the magnitude of conservatisms in the dose estimates that result from conservative inputs is difficult to determine. To respond to these issues, the DOE explored the significance of uncertainties and the magnitude of conservatisms in the SSPA Volumes 1 and 2 (BSC 2001 [DIRS 155950]; BSC 2001 [DIRS 154659]). The three main goals of this report are: (1) To briefly summarize and consolidate the discussion of much of the work that has been done over the past few years to evaluate, clarify, and improve the representation of uncertainties in the TSPA and performance projections for a potential repository. This report does not contain any new analyses of those uncertainties, but it summarizes in one place the main findings of that work. (2) To develop a strategy for how uncertainties may be handled in the TSPA and supporting analyses and models to support a License Application, should the site be recommended. It should be noted that the strategy outlined in this report is based on current information available to DOE. The strategy may be modified pending receipt of additional pertinent information, such as the Yucca Mountain Review Plan. (3) To discuss issues related to communication about uncertainties, and propose some approaches the DOE may use in the future to improve how it communicates uncertainty in its models and performance assessments to decision-makers and to technical audiences

  14. Parameters used in the environmental pathways and radiological dose modules (DESCARTES, CIDER, and CRD codes) of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snyder, S.F.; Farris, W.T.; Napier, B.A.; Ikenberry, T.A.; Gilbert, R.O.

    1994-05-01

    This letter report is a description of work performed for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The HEDR Project was established to estimate the radiation doses to individuals resulting from releases of radionuclides from the Hanford Site during the period of 1944 to 1992. This work is being done by staff at Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories under a contract with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with technical direction provided by an independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP).

  15. Parameters used in the environmental pathways and radiological dose modules (DESCARTES, CIDER, and CRD codes) of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snyder, S.F.; Farris, W.T.; Napier, B.A.; Ikenberry, T.A.; Gilbert, R.O.

    1994-05-01

    This letter report is a description of work performed for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The HEDR Project was established to estimate the radiation doses to individuals resulting from releases of radionuclides from the Hanford Site during the period of 1944 to 1992. This work is being done by staff at Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories under a contract with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with technical direction provided by an independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP)

  16. Health Risk Assessment for Uranium in Groundwater - An Integrated Case Study Based on Hydrogeological Characterization and Dose Calculation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, M. R.; Veiga, L. H.; Py, D. A., Jr.; Fernandes, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    The uranium mining and milling facilities of Caetité (URA) is the only active uranium production center in Brazil. Operations take place at a very sensitive semi-arid region in the country where water resources are very scarce. Therefore, any contamination of the existing water bodies may trigger critical consequences to local communities because their sustainability is closely related to the availability of the groundwater resources. Due to the existence of several uranium anomalies in the region, groundwater can present radionuclide concentrations above the world average. The radiological risk associated to the ingestion of these waters have been questioned by members of the local communities, NGO’s and even regulatory bodies that suspected that the observed levels of radionuclide concentrations (specially Unat) could be related to the uranium mining and milling operations. Regardless the origin of these concentrations the fear that undesired health effects were taking place (e.g. increase in cancer incidence) remain despite the fact that no evidence - based on epidemiological studies - is available. This paper intends to present the connections between the local hydrogeology and the radiological characterization of groundwater in the neighboring areas of the uranium production center to understand the implications to the human health risk due to the ingestion of groundwater. The risk assessment was performed, taking into account the radiological and the toxicological risks. Samples from 12 wells have been collected and determinations of Unat, Thnat, 226Ra, 228Ra and 210Pb were performed. The radiation-related risks were estimated for adults and children by the calculation of the annual effective doses. The potential non-carcinogenic effects due to the ingestion of uranium were evaluated by the estimation of the hazard index (HI). Monte Carlo simulations were used to calculate the uncertainty associated with these estimates, i.e. the 95% confidence interval

  17. Dose assessments for SFR 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergstroem, Ulla; Avila, Rodolfo; Ekstroem, Per-Anders; Cruz, Idalmis de la

    2008-05-01

    Following a review by the Swedish regulatory authorities of the safety analysis of the SFR 1 disposal facility for low and intermediate level waste, SKB has prepared an updated safety analysis, SAR-08. This report presents estimations of annual doses to the most exposed groups from potential radionuclide releases from the SFR 1 repository for a number of calculation cases, selected using a systematic approach for identifying relevant scenarios for the safety analysis. The dose estimates can be used for demonstrating that the long term safety of the repository is in compliance with the regulatory requirements. In particular, the mean values of the annual doses can be used to estimate the expected risks to the most exposed individuals, which can then be compared with the regulatory risk criteria for human health. The conversion from doses to risks is performed in the main report. For one scenario however, where the effects of an earthquake taking place close to the repository are analysed, risk calculations are presented in this report. In addition, prediction of concentrations of radionuclides in environmental media, such as water and soil, are compared with concentration limits suggested by the Erica-project as a base for estimating potential effects on the environment. The assessment of the impact on non-human biota showed that the potential impact is negligible. Committed collective dose for an integration period of 10,000 years for releases occurring during the first thousand years after closure are also calculated. The collective dose commitment was estimated to be 8 manSv. The dose calculations were carried out for a period of 100,000 years, which was sufficient to observe peak doses in all scenarios considered. Releases to the landscape and to a well were considered. The peaks of the mean annual doses from releases to the landscape are associated with C-14 releases to a future lake around year 5,000 AD. In the case of releases to a well, the peak annual doses

  18. Dose assessments for SFR 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, Ulla (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Avila, Rodolfo; Ekstroem, Per-Anders; Cruz, Idalmis de la (Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden))

    2008-06-15

    Following a review by the Swedish regulatory authorities of the safety analysis of the SFR 1 disposal facility for low and intermediate level waste, SKB has prepared an updated safety analysis, SAR-08. This report presents estimations of annual doses to the most exposed groups from potential radionuclide releases from the SFR 1 repository for a number of calculation cases, selected using a systematic approach for identifying relevant scenarios for the safety analysis. The dose estimates can be used for demonstrating that the long term safety of the repository is in compliance with the regulatory requirements. In particular, the mean values of the annual doses can be used to estimate the expected risks to the most exposed individuals, which can then be compared with the regulatory risk criteria for human health. The conversion from doses to risks is performed in the main report. For one scenario however, where the effects of an earthquake taking place close to the repository are analysed, risk calculations are presented in this report. In addition, prediction of concentrations of radionuclides in environmental media, such as water and soil, are compared with concentration limits suggested by the Erica-project as a base for estimating potential effects on the environment. The assessment of the impact on non-human biota showed that the potential impact is negligible. Committed collective dose for an integration period of 10,000 years for releases occurring during the first thousand years after closure are also calculated. The collective dose commitment was estimated to be 8 manSv. The dose calculations were carried out for a period of 100,000 years, which was sufficient to observe peak doses in all scenarios considered. Releases to the landscape and to a well were considered. The peaks of the mean annual doses from releases to the landscape are associated with C-14 releases to a future lake around year 5,000 AD. In the case of releases to a well, the peak annual doses

  19. Development of an integrated optimization method for analyzing effect of energy conversion efficiency under uncertainty – A case study of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, S.W.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Hao, Q.; Nie, S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority full-infinite mixed-integer method is developed. • The method can tackle uncertainties of fuzzy sets, crisp and functional intervals. • The method is applied to a real case of planning energy system. • Effects of energy-conversion efficiency on energy systems are analyzed. • Results can support policy enactment of conversion efficiency improvement. - Abstract: In this study, a superiority–inferiority full-infinite mixed-integer programming (SFMP) method is developed for analyzing the effect of energy conversion efficiency under uncertainty. SFMP can effectively tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets, crisp intervals and functional intervals, it also can directly reflect relationships among multiple fuzzy sets through varying superiority and inferiority degrees with a high computational efficiency. Then the developed SFMP is applied to a real case of planning energy system for Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, where multiple scenarios related to different energy-conversion efficiency are concerned. Results for energy processing, energy conversion, capacity expansion, pollutant emission and system cost have been generated. It is proved that SFMP is an effective approach to deal with the uncertainties in energy systems with interactive and uncertain characteristics. A variety of uncertainties existed in energy conversion processes and impact factors could affect the modeling result. Results show that improvement of energy-conversion efficiency can effectively facilitate reducing energy resources consumption, optimizing energy generation pattern, decreasing capacity expansion, as well as mitigating pollutant emissions. Results also reveal that, for the study area, electric power has a highest energy saving potential among heating, oil processing, coal washing and refining. Results can help decision makers to generate desired alternatives that can facilitate policy enactment of conversion efficiency

  20. Integrated analysis of genetic variation and gene expression reveals novel variant for increased warfarin dose requirement in African Americans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hernandez, W.; Gamazon, E. R.; Aquino-Michaels, K.; Smithberger, E.; O'Brien, T. J.; Harralson, A. F.; Tuck, M.; Barbour, A.; Cavallari, L. H.; Perera, M. A.

    2017-01-01

    Essentials Genetic variants controlling gene regulation have not been explored in pharmacogenomics. We tested liver expression quantitative trait loci for association with warfarin dose response. A novel predictor for increased warfarin dose response in African Americans was identified. Precision

  1. Efficacy of integrated treatment of UV light and low dose gamma irradiation on Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella enterica on grape tomatoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efficacy of integrated treatment of UVC and low dose Gamma irradiation to inactivate mixed Strains of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella enterica inoculated on whole Grape tomatoes was evaluated. A mixed bacterial cocktail composed of a three strain mixture of E. coli O157:H7 (C9490, E02128 an...

  2. Parameters used in the environmental pathways (DESCARTES) and radiological dose (CIDER) modules of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC) for the air pathway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snyder, S.F.; Farris, W.T.; Napier, B.A.; Ikenberry, T.A.; Gilbert, R.O.

    1992-09-01

    This letter report is a description of work performed for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The HEDR Project was established to estimate the radiation doses to individuals resulting from releases of radionuclides from the Hanford Site since 1944. This work is being done by staff at Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories (Battelle) under a contract with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) with technical direction provided by an independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP). The objective of this report is to-document the environmental accumulation and dose-assessment parameters that will be used to estimate the impacts of past Hanford Site airborne releases. During 1993, dose estimates made by staff at Battelle will be used by the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center as part of the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study (HTDS). This document contains information on parameters that are specific to the airborne release of the radionuclide iodine-131. Future versions of this document will include parameter information pertinent to other pathways and radionuclides.

  3. Parameters used in the environmental pathways (DESCARTES) and radiological dose (CIDER) modules of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC) for the air pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snyder, S.F.; Farris, W.T.; Napier, B.A.; Ikenberry, T.A.; Gilbert, R.O.

    1992-09-01

    This letter report is a description of work performed for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The HEDR Project was established to estimate the radiation doses to individuals resulting from releases of radionuclides from the Hanford Site since 1944. This work is being done by staff at Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories (Battelle) under a contract with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) with technical direction provided by an independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP). The objective of this report is to-document the environmental accumulation and dose-assessment parameters that will be used to estimate the impacts of past Hanford Site airborne releases. During 1993, dose estimates made by staff at Battelle will be used by the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center as part of the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study (HTDS). This document contains information on parameters that are specific to the airborne release of the radionuclide iodine-131. Future versions of this document will include parameter information pertinent to other pathways and radionuclides

  4. Independent dose calculation in IMRT for the Tps Iplan using the Clarkson modified integral; Calculo independiente de dosis en IMRT para el TPS Iplan usando la integral modificada de Clarkson

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adrada, A.; Tello, Z.; Garrigo, E.; Venencia, D., E-mail: jorge.alberto.adrada@gmail.com [Instituto Privado de Radioterapia, Obispo Oro 423, X5000BFI Cordoba (Argentina)

    2014-08-15

    Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) treatments require a quality assurance (Q A) specific patient before delivery. These controls include the experimental verification in dose phantom of the total plan as well as dose distributions. The use of independent dose calculation (IDC) is used in 3D-Crt treatments; however its application in IMRT requires the implementation of an algorithm that allows considering a non-uniform intensity beam. The purpose of this work was to develop IDC software in IMRT with MLC using the algorithm proposed by Kung (Kung et al. 2000). The software was done using Matlab programming. The Clarkson modified integral was implemented on each flowing, applying concentric rings for the dose determination. From the integral of each field was calculated the dose anywhere. One time finished a planning; all data are exported to a phantom where a Q A plan is generated. On this is calculated the half dose in a representative volume of the ionization chamber and the dose at the center of it. Until now 230 IMRT planning were analyzed carried out ??in the treatment planning system (Tps) Iplan. For each one of them Q A plan was generated, were calculated and compared calculated dose with the Tps, IDC system and measurement with ionization chamber. The average difference between measured and calculated dose with the IDC system was 0.4% ± 2.2% [-6.8%, 6.4%]. The difference between the measured and the calculated doses by the pencil-beam algorithm (Pb) of Tps was 2.6% ± 1.41% [-2.0%, 5.6%] and with the Monte Carlo algorithm was 0.4% ± 1.5% [-4.9%, 3.7%]. The differences of the carried out software are comparable to the obtained with the ionization chamber and Tps in Monte Carlo mode. (author)

  5. Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel GARRIDO

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.

  6. Evaluation of the Effects of Integrated Management Weed Control on Corn Field by Using Reduced Dose of Foramsulfuron and Nicosulfuron Herbicides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Matinfar

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate the effects of integrated weed management on weed control by using reduced herbicide dose, a field experiment was conducted in 2010 in Qazvin. The experiment was conducted in randomized complete block design with 24 treatments and 4 replications. The treatments were: different planting patterns at three levels (single row, square double rows and zigzag double row  plantings and doses of  Nicosulfuron and Foramsulfuron application at four levels (1, 1/5, 2 and 2/5 liters per hectare, The results showed that among the different planting patterns, zigzag planting reduced weed populations and their dry weights significantly. Foramsulfuron herbicide could control weeds better than Nicosulfuron. Among the herbicide dosages, 2/5 litter dose per hectare highly reduced weed density its dry weight as compared to one litter dose.

  7. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doell, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008;

  8. The economic implications of carbon cycle uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the implications of uncertainty in the carbon cycle for the cost of stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations. Using a state of the art integrated assessment model, we find that uncertainty in our understanding of the carbon cycle has significant implications for the costs of a climate stabilization policy, with cost differences denominated in trillions of dollars. Uncertainty in the carbon cycle is equivalent to a change in concentration target of up to 100 ppmv. The impact of carbon cycle uncertainties are smaller than those for climate sensitivity, and broadly comparable to the effect of uncertainty in technology availability

  9. Estimation of forest aboveground biomass and uncertainties by integration of field measurements, airborne LiDAR, and SAR and optical satellite data in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbazaev, Mikhail; Thiel, Christian; Cremer, Felix; Dubayah, Ralph; Migliavacca, Mirco; Reichstein, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

    2018-02-21

    Information on the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB) over large areas is needed for understanding and managing processes involved in the carbon cycle and supporting international policies for climate change mitigation and adaption. Furthermore, these products provide important baseline data for the development of sustainable management strategies to local stakeholders. The use of remote sensing data can provide spatially explicit information of AGB from local to global scales. In this study, we mapped national Mexican forest AGB using satellite remote sensing data and a machine learning approach. We modelled AGB using two scenarios: (1) extensive national forest inventory (NFI), and (2) airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) as reference data. Finally, we propagated uncertainties from field measurements to LiDAR-derived AGB and to the national wall-to-wall forest AGB map. The estimated AGB maps (NFI- and LiDAR-calibrated) showed similar goodness-of-fit statistics (R 2 , Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)) at three different scales compared to the independent validation data set. We observed different spatial patterns of AGB in tropical dense forests, where no or limited number of NFI data were available, with higher AGB values in the LiDAR-calibrated map. We estimated much higher uncertainties in the AGB maps based on two-stage up-scaling method (i.e., from field measurements to LiDAR and from LiDAR-based estimates to satellite imagery) compared to the traditional field to satellite up-scaling. By removing LiDAR-based AGB pixels with high uncertainties, it was possible to estimate national forest AGB with similar uncertainties as calibrated with NFI data only. Since LiDAR data can be acquired much faster and for much larger areas compared to field inventory data, LiDAR is attractive for repetitive large scale AGB mapping. In this study, we showed that two-stage up-scaling methods for AGB estimation over large areas need to be analyzed and validated

  10. Half-dose non-contrast CT in the investigation of urolithiasis: image quality improvement with third-generation integrated circuit CT detectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Kang, Tony; Arepalli, Chesnal; Barrett, Sarah; O'Connell, Tim; Louis, Luck; Nicolaou, Savvakis; McLaughlin, Patrick

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study is to establish the effect of third-generation integrated circuit (IC) CT detector on objective image quality in full- and half-dose non-contrast CT of the urinary tract. 51 consecutive patients with acute renal colic underwent non-contrast CT of the urinary tract using a 128-slice dual-source CT before (n = 24) and after (n = 27) the installation of third-generation IC detectors. Half-dose images were generated using projections from detector A using the dual-source RAW data. Objective image noise in the liver, spleen, right renal cortex, and right psoas muscle was compared between DC and IC cohorts for full-dose and half-dose images reconstructed with FBP and IR algorithms using 1 cm(2) regions of interest. Presence and size of obstructing ureteric calculi were also compared for full-dose and half-dose reconstructions using DC and IC detectors. No statistical difference in age and lateral body size was found between patients in the IC and DC cohorts. Radiation dose, as measured by size-specific dose estimates, did not differ significantly either between the two cohorts (10.02 ± 4.54 mGy IC vs. 12.28 ± 7.03 mGy DC). At full dose, objective image noise was not significantly lower in the IC cohort as compared to the DC cohort for the liver, spleen, and right psoas muscle. At half dose, objective image noise was lower in the IC cohort as compared to DC cohort at the liver (21.32 IC vs. 24.99 DC, 14.7% decrease, p 0.05 for all comparisons). Third-generation IC detectors result in lower objective image noise at full- and half-radiation dose levels as compared with traditional DC detectors. The magnitude of noise reduction was greater at half-radiation dose indicating that the benefits of using novel IC detectors are greater in low and ultra-low-dose CT imaging.

  11. Helical Tomotherapy for Whole-Brain Irradiation With Integrated Boost to Multiple Brain Metastases: Evaluation of Dose Distribution Characteristics and Comparison With Alternative Techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levegrün, Sabine; Pöttgen, Christoph; Wittig, Andrea; Lübcke, Wolfgang; Abu Jawad, Jehad; Stuschke, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To quantitatively evaluate dose distribution characteristics achieved with helical tomotherapy (HT) for whole-brain irradiation (WBRT) with integrated boost (IB) to multiple brain metastases in comparison with alternative techniques. Methods and Materials: Dose distributions for 23 patients with 81 metastases treated with WBRT (30 Gy/10 fractions) and IB (50 Gy) were analyzed. The median number of metastases per patient (N mets ) was 3 (range, 2-8). Mean values of the composite planning target volume of all metastases per patient (PTV mets ) and of the individual metastasis planning target volume (PTV ind met ) were 8.7 ± 8.9 cm 3 (range, 1.3-35.5 cm 3 ) and 2.5 ± 4.5 cm 3 (range, 0.19-24.7 cm 3 ), respectively. Dose distributions in PTV mets and PTV ind met were evaluated with respect to dose conformity (conformation number [CN], RTOG conformity index [PITV]), target coverage (TC), and homogeneity (homogeneity index [HI], ratio of maximum dose to prescription dose [MDPD]). The dependence of dose conformity on target size and N mets was investigated. The dose distribution characteristics were benchmarked against alternative irradiation techniques identified in a systematic literature review. Results: Mean ± standard deviation of dose distribution characteristics derived for PTV mets amounted to CN = 0.790 ± 0.101, PITV = 1.161 ± 0.154, TC = 0.95 ± 0.01, HI = 0.142 ± 0.022, and MDPD = 1.147 ± 0.029, respectively, demonstrating high dose conformity with acceptable homogeneity. Corresponding numbers for PTV ind met were CN = 0.708 ± 0.128, PITV = 1.174 ± 0.237, TC = 0.90 ± 0.10, HI = 0.140 ± 0.027, and MDPD = 1.129 ± 0.030, respectively. The target size had a statistically significant influence on dose conformity to PTV mets (CN = 0.737 for PTV mets ≤4.32 cm 3 vs CN = 0.848 for PTV mets >4.32 cm 3 , P=.006), in contrast to N mets . The achieved dose conformity to PTV mets , assessed by both CN and PITV, was in all investigated volume strata

  12. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  13. An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model and AHP Weighting Uncertainty Analysis for Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dianfa Wu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The transformation of the power generation industry from coal-based to more sustainable energy sources is an irreversible trend. In China, the coal-fired power plant, as the main electric power supply facility at present, needs to know its own sustainability level to face the future competition. A hybrid multi-criteria decision making (MCDM model is proposed in this paper to assess the sustainability levels of the existing Chinese coal-fired power units. The areal grey relational analysis (AGRA method is involved in the hybrid model, and a combined weighting method is used to determine the priorities of the criteria. The combining weight fuses the fuzzy rough set (FRS and entropy objective weighting method together with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP subjective weighting method by game theory. Moreover, an AHP weighting uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo (MC simulation is introduced to measure the uncertainty of the results, and a 95 percent confidence interval (CI is defined as the uncertainty measurement of the alternatives. A case study about eight coal-fired power units is carried out with a criteria system, which contains five aspects in an operational perspective, such as the flexibility, economic, environmental, reliability and technical criterion. The sustainability assessment is performed at the unit level, and the results give a priority rank of the eight alternatives; additionally, the uncertainty analysis supplies the extra information from a statistical perspective. This work expands a novel hybrid MCDM method to the sustainability assessment of the power generation systems, and it may be a benefit to the energy enterprises in assessing the sustainability at the unit level and enhance its ability in future sustainable development.

  14. Optimized probes for dose rate measurements at local government sites and in emergency planning zones and their integration into measurement networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuca, Petr; Helebrant, Jan; Cespirova, Irena; Judas, Libor; Skala, Lukas

    2015-01-01

    The results of a security project aimed at the development of a radiation situation monitoring system using optimized probes for dose rate measurements are described. The system is suitable for use at local government sites as well as at other sites. The system includes dose rate measurement probes with the variable configuration functionality (detection part), equipment for data transfer to a central workplace (communication part) and application for collection, storage and administration of the results and their presentation at a website (presentation part). The dosimetric and other operational properties of the probes were tested and the feasibility of their integration into measurement networks using the IMS central application was examined. (orig.)

  15. Isocentric integration of intensity-modulated radiotherapy with electron fields improves field junction dose uniformity in postmastectomy radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Pauliina; Suilamo, Sami; Lindholm, Paula; Kulmala, Jarmo

    2014-08-01

    In postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT), the dose coverage of the planning target volume (PTV) with additional margins, including the chest wall, supraclavicular, interpectoral, internal mammary and axillar level I-III lymph nodes, is often compromised. Electron fields may improve the medial dose coverage while maintaining organ at risk (OAR) doses at an acceptable level, but at the cost of hot and cold spots at the electron and photon field junction. To improve PMRT dose coverage and uniformity, an isocentric technique combining tangential intensity-modulated (IM)RT fields with one medial electron field was implemented. For 10 postmastectomy patients isocentric IMRT with electron plans were created and compared with a standard electron/photon mix and a standard tangent technique. PTV dose uniformity was evaluated based on the tolerance range (TR), i.e. the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean dose, a dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and the 90% isodose coverage and the hot spot volumes. OAR and contralateral breast doses were also recorded. IMRT with electrons significantly improved the PTV dose homogeneity and conformity based on the TR and DSC values when compared with the standard electron/photon and tangent technique (p < 0.02). The 90% isodose coverage improved to 86% compared with 82% and 80% for the standard techniques (p < 0.02). Compared with the standard electron/photon mix, IMRT smoothed the dose gradient in the electron and photon field junction and the volumes receiving a dose of 110% or more were reduced by a third. For all three strategies, the OAR and contralateral breast doses were within clinically tolerable limits. Based on these results two-field IMRT combined with an electron field is a suitable strategy for PMRT.

  16. Control letters and uncertainties of the kerma patterns in air, dose absorbed in water and dose absorbed in air of the LSCD; Cartas de control e incertidumbres de los patrones de kerma en aire, dosis absorbida en agua y dosis absorbida en aire del LSCD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez R, M T; Tovar M, V M; Cejudo A, J [ININ, 52045 Ocoyoacac, Estado de Mexico (Mexico)

    2005-12-15

    With the purpose of characterizing the component of uncertainty of long term of the patron ionization chambers of the LSCD, for the magnitudes: speed of kerma in air {kappa}{sub {alpha}}{sub {center_dot}}, dose speed absorbed in water D{alpha}{sub {center_dot}}, and speed absorbed dose in air D{alpha}{sub {center_dot}}, it use the technique of letters of control l-MR/S. This statistical technique it estimates the component of uncertainty of short term by means of the deviation standard inside groups {sigma}{sub {omega}} and that of long term by means of the standard deviation among groups {sigma}{sub {beta}}, being this it finishes an estimator of the stability of the patterns.The letters of control l-MR/S it construct for: i) {kappa}{sub {alpha}}{sub {center_dot}}, in radiation field of {sup 60}Co for patterns: primary CC01 series 131, secondary NE 2611 series 176, secondary PTW TN30031 series 578 and Third PTW W30001 series 365. ii) D{alpha}),en radiation field of {sup 60}Co for patterns: primary CC01 series 131, Secondary PTW TN30031 series 578 and tertiary PTW W30001 series 365. iii) I-MR/S with extrapolation chamber PTW primary pattern, measurement realizes in secondary patron fields of {sup 90}Sr-{sup 90}Y. The expanded uncertainty U it is calculated of agreement with the Guide of the ISO/BIPM being observed the following thing: a. In some the cases {sigma}{sub {beta}}, is the component of the U that more contributed to this. Therefore, it is necessary to settle down technical of sampling in those mensurations that allow to reduce the value of {sigma}{sub {beta}}. For example with sizes of subgroup {eta}{sub {approx}} 30 data, or with a number of subgroups {kappa}{sub {>=}}. That which is achieved automating the mensuration processes. b.The component of the temperature is also one of those that but they contribute to the U, of there the necessity of: to recover the tracking for this magnitude of it influences and to increase the precision in the

  17. Development of an integrated model for energy systems planning and carbon dioxide mitigation under uncertainty - Tradeoffs between two-level decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Xu, L P

    2018-07-01

    A bi-level fuzzy programming (BFLP) method was developed for energy systems planning (ESP) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation under uncertainty. BFLP could handle fuzzy information and leader-follower problem in decision-making processes. It could also address the tradeoffs among different decision makers in two decision-making levels through prioritizing the most important goal. Then, a BFLP-ESP model was formulated for planning energy system of Beijing, in which the upper-level objective is to minimize CO 2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. Results provided a range of decision alternatives that corresponded to a tradeoff between system optimality and reliability under uncertainty. Compared to the single-level model with a target to minimize system cost, the amounts of pollutant/CO 2 emissions from BFLP-ESP were reduced since the study system would prefer more clean energies (i.e. natural gas, LPG and electricity) to replace coal fuel. Decision alternatives from BFLP were more beneficial for supporting Beijing to adjust its energy mix and enact its emission-abatement policy. Results also revealed that the low-carbon policy for power plants (e.g., shutting down all coal-fired power plants) could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing, which would increase the risk of energy shortage. The findings could help decision makers analyze the interactions between different stakeholders in ESP and provide useful information for policy design under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  19. Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

    1999-01-01

    In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

  20. Total integrated dose testing of solid-state scientific CD4011, CD4013, and CD4060 devices by irradiation with CO-60 gamma rays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantas, A. R. V.; Gauthier, M. K.; Coss, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    The total integrated dose response of three CMOS devices manufactured by Solid State Scientific has been measured using CO-60 gamma rays. Key parameter measurements were made and compared for each device type. The data show that the CD4011, CD4013, and CD4060 produced by this manufacturers should not be used in any environments where radiation levels might exceed 1,000 rad(Si).

  1. Model uncertainties in top-quark physics

    CERN Document Server

    Seidel, Markus

    2014-01-01

    The ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are studying the top quark in pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV. Due to the large integrated luminosity, precision measurements of production cross-sections and properties are often limited by systematic uncertainties. An overview of the modeling uncertainties for simulated events is given in this report.

  2. Biological stress response terminology: Integrating the concepts of adaptive response and preconditioning stress within a hormetic dose-response framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabrese, Edward J.; Bachmann, Kenneth A.; Bailer, A. John; Bolger, P. Michael; Borak, Jonathan; Cai, Lu; Cedergreen, Nina; Cherian, M. George; Chiueh, Chuang C.; Clarkson, Thomas W.; Cook, Ralph R.; Diamond, David M.; Doolittle, David J.; Dorato, Michael A.; Duke, Stephen O.; Feinendegen, Ludwig; Gardner, Donald E.; Hart, Ronald W.; Hastings, Kenneth L.; Hayes, A. Wallace; Hoffmann, George R.; Ives, John A.; Jaworowski, Zbigniew; Johnson, Thomas E.; Jonas, Wayne B.; Kaminski, Norbert E.; Keller, John G.; Klaunig, James E.; Knudsen, Thomas B.; Kozumbo, Walter J.; Lettieri, Teresa; Liu, Shu-Zheng; Maisseu, Andre; Maynard, Kenneth I.; Masoro, Edward J.; McClellan, Roger O.; Mehendale, Harihara M.; Mothersill, Carmel; Newlin, David B.; Nigg, Herbert N.; Oehme, Frederick W.; Phalen, Robert F.; Philbert, Martin A.; Rattan, Suresh I.S.; Riviere, Jim E.; Rodricks, Joseph; Sapolsky, Robert M.; Scott, Bobby R.; Seymour, Colin; Sinclair, David A.; Smith-Sonneborn, Joan; Snow, Elizabeth T.; Spear, Linda; Stevenson, Donald E.; Thomas, Yolene; Tubiana, Maurice; Williams, Gary M.; Mattson, Mark P.

    2007-01-01

    Many biological subdisciplines that regularly assess dose-response relationships have identified an evolutionarily conserved process in which a low dose of a stressful stimulus activates an adaptive response that increases the resistance of the cell or organism to a moderate to severe level of stress. Due to a lack of frequent interaction among scientists in these many areas, there has emerged a broad range of terms that describe such dose-response relationships. This situation has become problematic because the different terms describe a family of similar biological responses (e.g., adaptive response, preconditioning, hormesis), adversely affecting interdisciplinary communication, and possibly even obscuring generalizable features and central biological concepts. With support from scientists in a broad range of disciplines, this article offers a set of recommendations we believe can achieve greater conceptual harmony in dose-response terminology, as well as better understanding and communication across the broad spectrum of biological disciplines

  3. The Precautionary Principle and statistical approaches to uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2003-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standards in toxicology; dose-response relationship; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification......Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standards in toxicology; dose-response relationship; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification...

  4. The Precautionary Principle and Statistical Approaches to Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2005-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standars in toxicology; dose-response relationships; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification......Bayesian model averaging; Benchmark approach to safety standars in toxicology; dose-response relationships; environmental standards; exposure measurement uncertainty; Popper falsification...

  5. Analysis of a Statistical Relationship Between Dose and Error Tallies in Semiconductor Digital Integrated Circuits for Application to Radiation Monitoring Over a Wireless Sensor Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colins, Karen; Li, Liqian; Liu, Yu

    2017-05-01

    Mass production of widely used semiconductor digital integrated circuits (ICs) has lowered unit costs to the level of ordinary daily consumables of a few dollars. It is therefore reasonable to contemplate the idea of an engineered system that consumes unshielded low-cost ICs for the purpose of measuring gamma radiation dose. Underlying the idea is the premise of a measurable correlation between an observable property of ICs and radiation dose. Accumulation of radiation-damage-induced state changes or error events is such a property. If correct, the premise could make possible low-cost wide-area radiation dose measurement systems, instantiated as wireless sensor networks (WSNs) with unshielded consumable ICs as nodes, communicating error events to a remote base station. The premise has been investigated quantitatively for the first time in laboratory experiments and related analyses performed at the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories. State changes or error events were recorded in real time during irradiation of samples of ICs of different types in a 60Co gamma cell. From the error-event sequences, empirical distribution functions of dose were generated. The distribution functions were inverted and probabilities scaled by total error events, to yield plots of the relationship between dose and error tallies. Positive correlation was observed, and discrete functional dependence of dose quantiles on error tallies was measured, demonstrating the correctness of the premise. The idea of an engineered system that consumes unshielded low-cost ICs in a WSN, for the purpose of measuring gamma radiation dose over wide areas, is therefore tenable.

  6. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  7. Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

  8. A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Döll, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

    2015-07-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation

  9. A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, K.; Elliott, Joshua; Levermann, A.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation

  10. An integrated GIS-based interval-probabilistic programming model for land-use planning management under uncertainty--a case study at Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Shasha; Zhou, Min; Guan, Xingliang; Tao, Lizao

    2015-03-01

    A large number of mathematical models have been developed for supporting optimization of land-use allocation; however, few of them simultaneously consider land suitability (e.g., physical features and spatial information) and various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., land availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and ecological requirements). This paper incorporates geographic information system (GIS) technology into interval-probabilistic programming (IPP) for land-use planning management (IPP-LUPM). GIS is utilized to assemble data for the aggregated land-use alternatives, and IPP is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distribution. Based on GIS, the suitability maps of different land users are provided by the outcomes of land suitability assessment and spatial analysis. The maximum area of every type of land use obtained from the suitability maps, as well as various objectives/constraints (i.e., land supply, land demand of socioeconomic development, future development strategies, and environmental capacity), is used as input data for the optimization of land-use areas with IPP-LUPM model. The proposed model not only considers the outcomes of land suitability evaluation (i.e., topography, ground conditions, hydrology, and spatial location) but also involves economic factors, food security, and eco-environmental constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land-use planning management system. The case study results at Suzhou, China, demonstrate that the model can help to examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. Moreover, it may identify the quantitative relationship between land suitability and system benefits. Willingness to arrange the land areas based on the condition of highly suitable land will not only reduce the potential conflicts on the environmental system but also lead to a lower

  11. Committed dose equivalent in the practice of radiological protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nenot, J.C.; Piechowski, J.

    1985-01-01

    In the case of internal exposure, the dose is not received at the moment of exposure, as happens with external exposure, since the incorporated radionuclide irradiates the various organs and tissues during the time it is present in the body. By definition, the committed dose equivalent corresponds to the received dose integrated over 50 years from the date of intake. In order to calculate it, one has to know the intake activity and the value of the committed dose equivalent per unit of intake activity. The uncertainties of the first parameter are such that the committed dose equivalent can only be regarded as an order of magnitude and not as a very accurate quantity. The use of it is justified, however, for, like the dose equivalent for external exposure, it expresses the risk of stochastic effects for the individual concerned since these effects, should they appear, would do so only after a latent period which is generally longer than the dose integration time. Moreover, the use of the committed dose equivalent offers certain advantages for dosimetric management, especially when it is simplified. A practical problem which may arise is that the annual dose limit is apparently exceeded by virtue of the fact that one is taking account, in the first year, of doses which will actually be received only in the following years. These problems are rare enough in practice to be dealt with individually in each case. (author)

  12. Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2004-01-01

    . The project partnership aims (composed by 7 partners in 5 countries, thus covering a real European spread in high tech production technology) to develop and implement an advanced e-learning system that integrates contributions from quite different disciplines into a user-centred approach that strictly....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e-learning......This report is made as a part of the project ‘Metro-E-Learn: European e-Learning in Manufacturing Metrology’, an EU project under the program SOCRATES MINERVA (ODL and ICT in Education), Contract No: 101434-CP-1-2002-1-DE-MINERVA, coordinated by Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen...

  13. Parameters used in the environmental pathways (DESCARTES) and radiological dose (CIDER) modules of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC) for the air pathway. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snyder, S.F.; Farris, W.T.; Napier, B.A.; Ikenberry, T.A.; Gilbert, R.O.

    1992-09-01

    This letter report is a description of work performed for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The HEDR Project was established to estimate the radiation doses to individuals resulting from releases of radionuclides from the Hanford Site since 1944. This work is being done by staff at Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories (Battelle) under a contract with the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) with technical direction provided by an independent Technical Steering Panel (TSP). The objective of this report is to-document the environmental accumulation and dose-assessment parameters that will be used to estimate the impacts of past Hanford Site airborne releases. During 1993, dose estimates made by staff at Battelle will be used by the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center as part of the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study (HTDS). This document contains information on parameters that are specific to the airborne release of the radionuclide iodine-131. Future versions of this document will include parameter information pertinent to other pathways and radionuclides.

  14. The Uncertainty estimation of Alanine/ESR dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bo Rum; An, Jin Hee; Choi, Hoon; Kim, Young Ki

    2008-01-01

    Machinery, tools and cable etc are in the nuclear power plant which environment is very severe. By measuring actual dose, it needs for extending life expectancy of the machinery and tools and the cable. Therefore, we estimated on dose (gamma ray) of Wolsong nuclear power division 1 by dose estimation technology for three years. The dose estimation technology was secured by ESR(Electron Spin Resonance) dose estimation using regression analysis. We estimate uncertainty for secure a reliability of results. The uncertainty estimation will be able to judge the reliability of measurement results. The estimation of uncertainty referred the international unified guide in order; GUM(Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement). It was published by International Standardization for Organization (ISO) in 1993. In this study the uncertainty of e-scan and EMX those are ESR equipment were evaluated and compared. Base on these results, it will improve the reliability of measurement

  15. Evaluation of stormwater micropollutant source control and end-of-pipe control strategies using an uncertainty-calibrated integrated dynamic simulation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Ledin, Anna

    2015-01-01

    (copper, zinc) and organic compounds (fluoranthene). MP fluxes were estimated by using an integrated dynamic model, in combination with stormwater quality measurements. MP sources were identified by using GIS land usage data, runoff quality was simulated by using a conceptual accumulation/washoff model......The estimation of micropollutant (MP) fluxes in stormwater systems is a fundamental prerequisite when preparing strategies to reduce stormwater MP discharges to natural waters. Dynamic integrated models can be important tools in this step, as they can be used to integrate the limited data provided...... by monitoring campaigns and to evaluate the performance of different strategies based on model simulation results. This study presents an example where six different control strategies, including both source-control and end-of-pipe treatment, were compared. The comparison focused on fluxes of heavy metals...

  16. Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emerek, Ruth

    2004-01-01

    Bidraget diskuterer de forskellige intergrationsopfattelse i Danmark - og hvad der kan forstås ved vellykket integration......Bidraget diskuterer de forskellige intergrationsopfattelse i Danmark - og hvad der kan forstås ved vellykket integration...

  17. Dose Evaluation of Fractionated Schema and Distance From Tumor to Spinal Cord for Spinal SBRT with Simultaneous Integrated Boost: A Preliminary Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hao; Cai, Bo-ning; Wang, Xiao-shen; Cong, Xiao-hu; Xu, Wei; Wang, Jin-yuan; Yang, Jun; Xu, Shou-ping; Ju, Zhong-jian; Ma, Lin

    2016-02-23

    BACKGROUND This study investigated and quantified the dosimetric impact of the distance from the tumor to the spinal cord and fractionation schemes for patients who received stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) and hypofractionated simultaneous integrated boost (HF-SIB). MATERIAL AND METHODS Six modified planning target volumes (PTVs) for 5 patients with spinal metastases were created by artificial uniform extension in the region of PTV adjacent spinal cord with a specified minimum tumor to cord distance (0-5 mm). The prescription dose (biologic equivalent dose, BED) was 70 Gy in different fractionation schemes (1, 3, 5, and 10 fractions). For PTV V100, Dmin, D98, D95, and D1, spinal cord dose, conformity index (CI), V30 were measured and compared. RESULTS PTV-to-cord distance influenced PTV V100, Dmin, D98, and D95, and fractionation schemes influenced Dmin and D98, with a significant difference. Distances of ≥2 mm, ≥1 mm, ≥1 mm, and ≥0 mm from PTV to spinal cord meet dose requirements in 1, 3, 5, and 10 fractionations, respectively. Spinal cord dose, CI, and V30 were not impacted by PTV-to-cord distance and fractionation schemes. CONCLUSIONS Target volume coverage, Dmin, D98, and D95 were directly correlated with distance from the spinal cord for spine SBRT and HF-SIB. Based on our study, ≥2 mm, ≥1 mm, ≥1 mm, and ≥0 mm distance from PTV to spinal cord meets dose requirements in 1, 3, 5 and 10 fractionations, respectively.

  18. Report on the uncertainty methods study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-06-01

    The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced 'best estimate' thermal-hydraulic codes: the Pisa method (based on extrapolation from integral experiments) and four methods identifying and combining input uncertainties. Three of these, the GRS, IPSN and ENUSA methods, use subjective probability distributions, and one, the AEAT method, performs a bounding analysis. Each method has been used to calculate the uncertainty in specified parameters for the LSTF SB-CL-18 5% cold leg small break LOCA experiment in the ROSA-IV Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). The uncertainty analysis was conducted essentially blind and the participants did not use experimental measurements from the test as input apart from initial and boundary conditions. Participants calculated uncertainty ranges for experimental parameters including pressurizer pressure, primary circuit inventory and clad temperature (at a specified position) as functions of time

  19. Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Mlakar

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

  20. Lung toxicity determination by in vitro exposure at the air liquid interface with an integrated online dose measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muelhopt, Sonja; Paur, H-R; Diabate, S; Weiss, C; Krebs, T

    2009-01-01

    Epidemiological studies show an association between the concentration of ultrafine particles in the atmosphere and the rate of mortality or morbidity due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. For the quantitative assessment of the toxicity of airborne nanoparticles the dose-response relationship is tested in in vitro test systems using bioassays of cell cultures as sensor. For the air-liquid interface exposure of cell cultures towards aerosols the Karlsruhe exposure system was developed. The human lung cell cultures are exposed in VITROCELL (registered) system modules with a constant flow of the conditioned aerosol. After exposure the cells are analyzed to measure the biological responses such as viability, inflammatory or oxidative stress. For the determination of the dose response relationship the accurate knowledge of the deposited particle mass is essential. A new online method is developed in the Karlsruhe exposure system: the sensor of a quartz crystal microbalance is placed in an exposure chamber instead of the membrane insert and exposed to the aerosol in the same way as the cell cultures. The deposited mass per area unit is monitored as a function of exposure time showing a linear relationship for a constant aerosol flow with defined particle concentration. A comparison of this new dose signal to a dosimetry method using fluorescein sodium particles shows a very good correlation between the sensor signal of the quartz crystal microbalance and the deposited mass on the membranes shown by spectroscopy. This system for the first time provides an online dose measurement for in vitro experiments with nanoparticles.

  1. Integrated effects of reduction dose of nitrogen fertilizer and mode of biofertilizer application on soil health under mung bean cropping system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naba Kumar Mondal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available To study the integrated effects of reduced dose of chemical fertilizer with different methods and times of application of Rhizobium biofertilizer on soil health and fertility under mung bean (Vigna radiata cropping, field experiments were carried out during three years (2009, 2010, and 2011 in West Bengal, India, in randomized block design. In the first year, varietal screening of mung bean under recommended dose of chemical fertilizer (20:40:20 were performed with five available varieties adapted to local climate. Reduced nitrogen fertilizer doses (20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, and 60% and the recommended dose, as well as the Rhizobium biofertilizer application (basal, soil, and spray, were done, and data were recorded for pH, electrical conductivity, organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total potassium, and bacterial population of soil, both before sowing and after harvesting. The results indicated significant improvement in the soil quality with gradual buildup of soil macronutrient status after harvesting of crop. Application of biofertilizer has contributed significantly towards higher soil organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The use of biofertilizer significantly improved soil bacterial population count in the soil thereby increasing the soil health.

  2. A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois

    2017-04-01

    Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

  3. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Daly, Don S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hathaway, John E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lansing, Carina S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Ying [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McJeon, Haewon C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Moss, Richard H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Patel, Pralit L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Peterson, Marty J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rice, Jennie S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhou, Yuyu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  4. Dose calculation in eye brachytherapy with Ir-192 threads using the Sievert integral and corrected by attenuation and scattering with the Meisberg polynomials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vivanco, M.G. Bernui de; Cardenas R, A.

    2006-01-01

    The ocular brachytherapy many times unique alternative to conserve the visual organ in patients of ocular cancer, one comes carrying out in the National Institute of Neoplastic Illnesses (INEN) using threads of Iridium 192; those which, they are placed in radial form on the interior surface of a spherical cap of gold of 18 K; the cap remains in the eye until reaching the prescribed dose by the doctor. The main objective of this work is to be able to calculate in a correct and practical way the one time that the treatment of ocular brachytherapy should last to reach the dose prescribed by the doctor. To reach this objective I use the Sievert integral corrected by attenuation effects and scattering (Meisberg polynomials); calculating it by the Simpson method. In the calculations by means of the Sievert integral doesn't take into account the scattering produced by the gold cap neither the variation of the constant of frequency of exposure with the distance. The calculations by means of Sievert integral are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo Penelope simulation code, where it is observed that they agree at distances of the surface of the cap greater or equal to 2mm. (Author)

  5. Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research...

  6. Methods, safety, and early clinical outcomes of dose escalation using simultaneous integrated and sequential boosts in patients with locally advanced gynecologic malignancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, John; Craciunescu, Oana; Steffey, Beverly; Cai, Jing; Chino, Junzo

    2014-11-01

    To evaluate the safety of dose escalated radiotherapy using a simultaneous integrated boost technique in patients with locally advanced gynecological malignancies. Thirty-nine women with locally advanced gynecological malignancies were treated with intensity modulated radiation therapy utilizing a simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) technique for gross disease in the para-aortic and/or pelvic nodal basins, sidewall extension, or residual primary disease. Women were treated to 45Gy in 1.8Gy fractions to elective nodal regions. Gross disease was simultaneously treated to 55Gy in 2.2Gy fractions (n=44 sites). An additional sequential boost of 10Gy in 2Gy fractions was delivered if deemed appropriate (n=29 sites). Acute and late toxicity, local control in the treated volumes (LC), overall survival (OS), and distant metastases (DM) were assessed. All were treated with a SIB to a dose of 55Gy. Twenty-four patients were subsequently treated with a sequential boost to a median dose of 65Gy. Median follow-up was 18months. Rates of acute>grade 2 gastrointestinal (GI), genitourinary (GU), and hematologic (heme) toxicities were 2.5%, 0%, and 30%, respectively. There were no grade 4 acute toxicities. At one year, grade 1-2 late GI toxicities were 24.5%. There were no grade 3 or 4 late GI toxicities. Rates of grade 1-2 late GU toxicities were 12.7%. There were no grade 3 or 4 late GU toxicities. Dose escalated radiotherapy using a SIB results in acceptable rates of acute toxicity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy with concomitant integrated boost of 70-75 Gy in 5 weeks for advanced head and neck cancer. A phase I dose escalation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cvek, J.; Skacelikova, E.; Otahal, B.; Halamka, M.; Feltl, D. [University Hospital Ostrava (Czech Republic). Dept. of Oncology; Kubes, J. [University Hospital Bulovka, Prague (Czech Republic). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Kominek, P. [University Hospital Ostrava (Czech Republic). Dept. of Otolaryngology

    2012-08-15

    Background and purpose: The present study was performed to evaluate the feasibility of a new, 5-week regimen of 70-75 Gy hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy with concomitant integrated boost (HARTCIB) for locally advanced, inoperable head and neck cancer. Methods and materials: A total of 39 patients with very advanced, stage IV nonmetastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (median gross tumor volume 72 ml) were included in this phase I dose escalation study. A total of 50 fractions intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) were administered twice daily over 5 weeks. Prescribed total dose/dose per fraction for planning target volume (PTV{sub tumor}) were 70 Gy in 1.4 Gy fractions, 72.5 Gy in 1.45 Gy fractions, and 75 Gy in 1.5 Gy fractions for 10, 13, and 16 patients, respectively. Uninvolved lymphatic nodes (PTV{sub uninvolved}) were irradiated with 55 Gy in 1.1 Gy fractions using the concomitant integrated boost. Results: Acute toxicity was evaluated according to the RTOG/EORTC scale; the incidence of grade 3 mucositis was 51% in the oral cavity/pharynx and 0% in skin and the recovery time was {<=} 9 weeks for all patients. Late toxicity was evaluated in patients in complete remission according to the RTOG/EORTC scale. No grade 3/4 late toxicity was observed. The 1-year locoregional progression-free survival was 50% and overall survival was 55%. Conclusion: HARTCIB (75 Gy in 5 weeks) is feasible for patients deemed unsuitable for chemoradiation. Acute toxicity was lower than predicted from radiobiological models; duration of dysphagia and confluent mucositis were particularly short. Better conformity of radiotherapy allows the use of more intensive altered fractionation schedules compared with older studies. These results suggest that further dose escalation might be possible when highly conformal techniques (e.g., stereotactic radiotherapy) are used.

  8. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  9. [Integrity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez Rodríguez, Rafael Ángel

    2014-01-01

    To say that someone possesses integrity is to claim that that person is almost predictable about responses to specific situations, that he or she can prudentially judge and to act correctly. There is a closed interrelationship between integrity and autonomy, and the autonomy rests on the deeper moral claim of all humans to integrity of the person. Integrity has two senses of significance for medical ethic: one sense refers to the integrity of the person in the bodily, psychosocial and intellectual elements; and in the second sense, the integrity is the virtue. Another facet of integrity of the person is la integrity of values we cherish and espouse. The physician must be a person of integrity if the integrity of the patient is to be safeguarded. The autonomy has reduced the violations in the past, but the character and virtues of the physician are the ultimate safeguard of autonomy of patient. A field very important in medicine is the scientific research. It is the character of the investigator that determines the moral quality of research. The problem arises when legitimate self-interests are replaced by selfish, particularly when human subjects are involved. The final safeguard of moral quality of research is the character and conscience of the investigator. Teaching must be relevant in the scientific field, but the most effective way to teach virtue ethics is through the example of the a respected scientist.

  10. Decision Under Uncertainty in Diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Kalme, Charles I.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the spectrum. A major undercurrent in this is advocating the need for a strong underlying model and an integrated set of support tools for carrying such a model in order to deal with ...

  11. Identification of molecular candidates and interaction networks via integrative toxicogenomic analysis in a human cell line following low-dose exposure to the carcinogenic metals cadmium and nickel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Jee Young; Weon, Jong-Il; Koedrith, Preeyaporn; Park, Kang-Sik; Kim, Im Soon; Seo, Young Rok

    2013-09-01

    Cadmium and nickel have been classified as carcinogenic to humans by the World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer. Given their prevalence in the environment, the fact that cadmium and nickel may cause diseases including cancer even at low doses is a cause for concern. However, the exact mechanisms underlying the toxicological effects induced by low-dose exposure to cadmium and nickel remain to be elucidated. Furthermore, it has recently been recognized that integrative analysis of DNA, mRNA and proteins is required to discover biomarkers and signaling networks relevant to human toxicant exposure. In the present study, we examined the deleterious effects of chronic low-dose exposure of either cadmium or nickel on global profiling of DNA copy number variation, mRNA and proteins. Array comparative genomic hybridization, gene expression microarray and functional proteomics were conducted, and a bioinformatics tool, which predicted signaling pathways, was applied to integrate data for each heavy metal separately and together. We found distinctive signaling networks associated with subchronic low-dose exposure to cadmium and nickel, and identified pathways common to both. ACTB, HSP90AA1, HSPA5 and HSPA8, which are key mediators of pathways related to apoptosis, proliferation and neoplastic processes, were key mediators of the same pathways in low-dose nickel and cadmium exposure in particular. CASP-associated signaling pathways involving CASP3, CASP7 and CASP9 were observed in cadmium-exposed cells. We found that HSP90AA1, one of the main modulators, interacted with HIF1A, AR and BCL2 in nickel-exposed cells. Interestingly, we found that HSP90AA1 was involved in the BCL2-associated apoptotic pathway in the nickel-only data, whereas this gene interacted with several genes functioning in CASP-associated apoptotic signaling in the cadmium-only data. Additionally, JUN and FASN were main modulators in nickel-responsive signaling pathways. Our

  12. Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Mukhopadhyay, N. D.; Sampson, A. J.; Deniz, D.; Carlsson, G. A.; Williamson, J.; Malušek, Alexandr

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 70, č. 1 (2012), s. 315-323 ISSN 0969-8043 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : Monte Carlo * correlated sampling * efficiency * uncertainty * bootstrap Subject RIV: BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders Impact factor: 1.179, year: 2012 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969804311004775

  13. Uncertainty analysis for secondary energy distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.

    1978-01-01

    In many transport calculations the integral design parameter of interest (response) is determined mainly by secondary particles such as gamma rays from (n,γ) reactions or secondary neutrons from inelastic scattering events or (n,2n) reactions. Standard sensitivity analysis usually allows to calculate the sensitivities to the production cross sections of such secondaries, but an extended formalism is needed to also obtain the sensitivities to the energy distribution of the generated secondary particles. For a 30-group standard cross-section set 84% of all non-zero table positions pertain to the description of secondary energy distributions (SED's) and only 16% to the actual reaction cross sections. Therefore, any sensitivity/uncertainty analysis which does not consider the effects of SED's is incomplete and neglects most of the input data. This paper describes the methods of how sensitivity profiles for SED's are obtained and used to estimate the uncertainty of an integral response due to uncertainties in these SED's. The detailed theory is documented elsewhere and implemented in the LASL sensitivity code SENSIT. SED sensitivity profiles have proven particularly valuable in cross-section uncertainty analyses for fusion reactors. Even when the production cross sections for secondary neutrons were assumed to be without error, the uncertainties in the energy distribution of these secondaries produced appreciable uncertainties in the calculated tritium breeding rate. However, complete error files for SED's are presently nonexistent. Therefore, methods will be described that allow rough error estimates due to estimated SED uncertainties based on integral SED sensitivities

  14. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  15. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  16. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  17. Heart dose reduction in breast cancer treatment with simultaneous integrated boost. Comparison of treatment planning and dosimetry for a novel hybrid technique and 3D-CRT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joest, Vincent; Kretschmer, Matthias; Sabatino, Marcello; Wuerschmidt, Florian; Dahle, Joerg; Lorenzen, Joern; Ueberle, Friedrich

    2015-01-01

    The present study compares in silico treatment plans of clinically established three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) with a hybrid technique consisting of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc radiotherapy (VMAT) during normally fractionated radiation of mammary carcinomas with simultaneous integrated boost on the basis of dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters. Radiation treatment planning was performed with a hybrid and a 3D-CRT treatment plan for 20 patients. Hybrid plans were implemented with two tangential IMRT fields and a VMAT field in the angular range of the tangents. Verification of the plan was performed with a manufacturer-independent measurement system consisting of a detector array and rotation unit. The mean values of the heart dose for the entire patient collective were 3.6 ± 2.5 Gy for 3D-CRT and 2.9 ± 2.1 Gy for the hybrid technique (p < 0.01). For the left side (n = 10), the mean values for the left anterior descending artery were 21.8 ± 7.4 Gy for 3D-CRT and 17.6 ± 7.4 Gy for the hybrid technique (p < 0.01). The mean values of the ipsilateral lung were 11.9 ± 1.6 Gy for 3D-CRT and 10.5 ± 1.3 Gy for the hybrid technique (p < 0.01). Calculated dose distributions in the hybrid arm were in good accordance with measured dose (on average 95.6 ± 0.5 % for γ < 1 and 3 %/3 mm). The difference of the mean treatment time per fraction was 7 s in favor of 3D-CRT. Compared with the established 3D-CRT technique, the hybrid technique allows for a decrease in dose, particularly of the mean heart and lung dose with comparable target volume acquisition and without disadvantageous low-dose load of contralateral structures. Uncomplicated implementation of the hybrid technique was demonstrated in this context. The hybrid technique combines the advantages of tangential IMRT with the superior sparing of organs at risk by VMAT. (orig.) [de

  18. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty</