WorldWideScience

Sample records for integrated climate model-oxygen

  1. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, M.G.

    1994-01-01

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  2. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  3. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  4. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  5. National parks, ecological integrity and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopoukhine, N.

    1990-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on the national parks of Canada are discussed. There is a requirement to protect and manage national parks to maintain a functioning ecosystem with all its parts and processes. An active management regime is necessary, with objectives of ecological diversity/integrity clearly stated. The national parks located in the Canadian Prairie provinces are on or near transitions from forest to tundra and grasslands, and are likely to exhibit the most dramatic changes. The change in vegetation of such parks and in others will not manifest itself simply as a shift of zones but will be accompanied by a flora with new dominants. The boreal forest within the Prairie provinces is fire dependent and has the potential of being transformed into remnant units should post-fire germination be hampered by climatic change. A rapid change in climate would render national parks unable to provide protection of representative elements of Canada's landscapes as presently known. A threefold increase in the area dedicated to protection is a basic component of the sustainable development prescription. All government and private lands dedicated to protection should be forged into a network, to provide core protection for immigrating and emigrating communities and individual species displaced by a changing climate. 20 refs., 2 figs

  6. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  7. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  8. Climate Leadership webinar on Integrating Energy and Climate Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allergan, a multi-specialty healthcare company and pharmaceutical manufacturer, discusses how it manages climate and energy risks, how these areas are linked, and how energy and climate management strategies pervade critical business decisions.

  9. Climate change and integrated water resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhuiyan, Nurul Amin

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: In the Bangladesh Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP), Millennium Development Goals and other donor driven initiatives, two vital areas linked with poverty and ecosystem survival seem to be either missing or are being neglected: (a) transboundary water use and (b) coastal area poverty and critical ecosystems vulnerable due to climate change. Since the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) goals and PRSP are integrated, it is necessary that the countrys WSSD goals and PRSP should also be in harmony. All should give the recognition of Ganges Brahmaputra and Meghna as international basins and the approach should be taken for regional sustainable and integrated water resource management involving all co-riparian countries. The principle of low flow in the international rivers during all seasons should be ensured. All stakeholders should have a say and work towards regional cooperation in the water sector as a top priority. The energy sector should be integrated with water. The Indian River Linking project involving international rivers should be seriously discussed at all levels including the parliament so that voice of Bangladesh is concerted and information shared by all concerned. One of the most critical challenges Bangladesh faces is the management of water resources during periods of water excesses and acute scarcity. It is particularly difficult when only 7% of the catchments areas of the very international rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna are in Bangladesh while 97% is outside Bangladesh where unfortunately, Bangladesh has no control on upstream diversion and water use. The UN Conference on Environment and Development in its Agenda 21 emphasizes the importance of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). The core point of IWRM is that is development of all aspects of entire basin in a basin wide approach, that all relevant agencies of the government and water users must be involved in the planning process and

  10. Human capital, innovation, and climate policy: An integrated assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study the climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital incre...

  11. Integrated assessment models of climate change. An incomplete overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment is a trendy phrase that has recently entered the vocabulary of folks in Washington, DC and elsewhere. The novelty of the term in policy analysis and policy making circles belies the longevity of this approach in the sciences and past attempts at their application to policy issues. This paper is an attempt at providing an overview of integrated assessment with a special focus on policy motivated integrated assessments of climate change. The first section provides an introduction to integrated assessments in general, followed by a discussion of the bounds to the climate change issue. The next section is devoted to a taxonomy of the policy motivated models. Then the integrated assessment effort at Carnegie Mellon is described briefly. A perspective on the challenges ahead in successful representation of natural and social dynamics in integrated assessments of global climate change is presented in the final section. (Author)

  12. Integrated Climate Smart Flood Management for Accra, Ghana ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · What we do ... The research team will use evidence to develop an integrated climate smart flood management framework to support policymaking. ... The Ministry of Environment, Science, Technology, and Innovation will manage the ...

  13. Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amstel, van A.R.

    2005-01-01

    We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model

  14. The resilience of integrated agricultural systems to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Cohn, Avery S.; Duncan, John; Newton, Peter; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    We reviewed studies addressing the extent to which more integrated agricultural systems (IAS) have been found to be more resilient to climate variability and climate change than more specialized agricultural systems. We found limited literature directly addressing the topic, necessitating the use of

  15. Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    27 mars 2008 ... Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in support of Community Based Adaptation. Traditionally, African farmers have used indigenous knowledge to understand weather and climate patterns and make decisions about crop and irrigation cycles. However, increased variability ...

  16. Building the Capacity for Climate Services: Thoughts on Training Next Generation Climate Science Integrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, G. M.; Brugger, J.; Gordon, E. S.; Barsugli, J. J.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    For more than a decade, stakeholder needs assessments and reports, including the recent National Climate Assessment, have pointed out the need for climate "science translators" or "science integrators" who can help bridge the gap between the cultures and contexts of researchers and decision-makers. Integration is important for exchanging and enhancing knowledge, building capacity to use climate information in decision making, and fostering more robust planning for decision-making in the context of climate change. This talk will report on the characteristics of successful climate science integrators, and a variety of models for training the upcoming generation of climate science integrators. Science integration characteristics identified by an experienced vanguard in the U.S. include maintaining credibility in both the scientific and stakeholder communities, a basic respect for stakeholders demonstrated through active listening, and a deep understanding of the decision-making context. Drawing upon the lessons of training programs for Cooperative Extension, public health professionals, and natural resource managers, we offer ideas about training next generation climate science integrators. Our model combines training and development of skills in interpersonal relations, communication of science, project implementation, education techniques and practices - integrated with a strong foundation in disciplinary knowledge.

  17. A globally integrated climate policy for Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstein, S.; Brunnee, J.; Duff, D.G.; Green, A.J.

    2008-01-01

    This book explored policy ideas and options from various perspectives, including science, law, political science, economics and sociology. The costs, opportunities and imperatives to participate in international diplomatic initiatives were considered along with the opportunities of regional global carbon markets. Canada's current policy on climate change negotiations have been focused on domestic regulation and incentives for technological responses and the setting of a domestic carbon price. The sense of urgency about global warming was discussed and the need for action to respond to the threat of global climate change was emphasized. The book also reviewed Canada's role in international climate policies and presented parameters and imperatives for global regime building in Canada. Domestic policy tools were also reviewed along with policy obstacles and opportunities. refs., tabs., figs.

  18. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  19. Making the Climate Count: Climate Policy Integration and Coherence in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Kivimaa, Paula; Mickwitz, Per

    2009-01-01

    Tackling climate change in Finland and other industrialised countries requires major changes in production processes and consumption patterns. These changes will not take place unless climate change becomes a crucial factor in general and sector-specific policy-making. In this report climate policy integration in Finland is studied at different levels of policy-making: at the national level, regionally in Kymenlakso and the Metropolitan Area, as well as in the city of Helsinki and the town of...

  20. Integrating climate change into governance at the municipal scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    2014-01-01

    traditions and perceptions. This article examines dif- ferent approaches to CC governance and the institutional dynamics that occur in the integration process within eight Danish municipalities in the initial phase of integrating CC. The results show three different governance approaches related to climate...

  1. Integrated Rural-Urban Water Management for Climate Based ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    There are serious short- and long-term consequences on human health, physical assets, economic ... To work, adaptive climate-proof integrated urban water management must extend throughout the whole catchment, an approach known as integrated water resource management. ... Careers · Contact Us · Site map.

  2. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-01

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  3. Integrating climate change into agricultural research for development in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon

    2011-09-15

    African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.

  4. Practice and progress in integrated assessments of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, F.L.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is intended to provide an overview of the state of the art integrated socioeconomic-biophysical assessments of climate change as presented at the IIASA workshop in October 1993. The paper seeks to tally the major improvements facilitated by integrated assessments in understanding the global warming problem and the crucial unresolved problems they currently face. The basic conclusion is that, as a result of a healthy diversity in practice, integrated assessments show significant progress in structuring the economic issues of climate change and providing the first broad insights into policy options. But, as some of the simple and traditional cases seem to be solved, more complex and difficult contingencies come to the fore. This suggests a long way to go to develop skills that will be required to address the numerous open issues. (author)

  5. Safety climate and culture: Integrating psychological and systems perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Tristan; Griffin, Mark A; Flatau Harrison, Huw; Neal, Andrew

    2017-07-01

    Safety climate research has reached a mature stage of development, with a number of meta-analyses demonstrating the link between safety climate and safety outcomes. More recently, there has been interest from systems theorists in integrating the concept of safety culture and to a lesser extent, safety climate into systems-based models of organizational safety. Such models represent a theoretical and practical development of the safety climate concept by positioning climate as part of a dynamic work system in which perceptions of safety act to constrain and shape employee behavior. We propose safety climate and safety culture constitute part of the enabling capitals through which organizations build safety capability. We discuss how organizations can deploy different configurations of enabling capital to exert control over work systems and maintain safe and productive performance. We outline 4 key strategies through which organizations to reconcile the system control problems of promotion versus prevention, and stability versus flexibility. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  7. Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

  8. Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scallion, M.

    2017-12-01

    Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to

  9. Incentives and stability of international climate coalitions: An integrated assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the incentives to participate in an international climate agreement and the stability of the resulting climate coalition using the integrated assessment model WITCH. Coalition stability is assessed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the aggregation of social welfare, and the severity of climate damages. The profitability, stability, and strong potential internal stability of a number of coalitions, those potentially effective in reducing GHG emissions, is explored in the paper. The main conclusion is that only the grand coalition, i.e. a coalition where all world regions cooperate to reduce emissions, can maintain GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO 2 -eq. However, this coalition is not internally stable, even when allowing for monetary transfers across world regions. Nonetheless, the paper also shows that strongly potentially internally stable coalitions exist, though of smaller size, which can mitigate global warming and limit GHG concentrations to 600 ppm CO 2 -eq. - Highlights: ► We analyse climate coalitions with an integrated assessment model. ► Coalitions’ profitability and stability is analysed under alternative assumptions. ► Effective coalitions should include larger emitters (such as India and China). ► A coalition that achieves 550 ppm CO 2 -eq is not internally stable. ► A stable coalition can achieve around 518 ppme in 2050 and 600 ppme in 2100

  10. Data Integration for Climate Vulnerability Mapping in West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex de Sherbinin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability mapping reveals areas that are likely to be at greater risk of climate-related disasters in the future. Through integration of climate, biophysical, and socioeconomic data in an overall vulnerability framework, so-called “hotspots” of vulnerability can be identified. These maps can be used as an aid to targeting adaptation and disaster risk management interventions. This paper reviews vulnerability mapping efforts in West Africa conducted under the USAID-funded African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC project. The focus is on the integration of remotely sensed and socioeconomic data. Data inputs included a range of sensor data (e.g., MODIS NDVI, Landsat, SRTM elevation, DMSP-OLS night-time lights as well as high-resolution poverty, conflict, and infrastructure data. Two basic methods were used, one in which each layer was transformed into standardized indicators in an additive approach, and another in which remote sensing data were used to contextualize the results of composite indicators. We assess the benefits and challenges of data integration, and the lessons learned from these mapping exercises.

  11. Integrated energy and climate program without nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haller, W.

    2007-01-01

    Under the German EU Council presidency, the European Union adopted an ambitious climate protection program in spring this year which has consequences for the entire energy sector. A fair system of burden sharing is currently being sought on the level of the European Union. However, the German federal government does not wait for that agreement to be reached, but has added to the clearcut EU plans in order to achieve more climate protection. At the closed meeting of the federal cabinet in Meseberg on August 23-24, 2007, the key points of an integrated energy and climate program were adopted. The unprecedented set of measures comprises 30 points. In many cases, legal measures are required for implementation, which implies a heavy workload facing the federal government and parliament. A major step forward is seen in the federal government's intention to preserve the international competitiveness of the producing sector and energy-intensive industries also under changed framework conditions. The imperative guiding principle must be that care should take precedence over speed. European or worldwide solutions must be found for all measures, be it energy efficiency or climate protection, and all countries must be involved because, otherwise, specific measures taken by individual states will be ineffective. (orig.)

  12. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2012-09-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

  13. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels

    2016-01-01

    protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from......We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology,and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood...... research advances and projections for the future are updated....

  14. An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1995-01-01

    ESCAPE (the Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions) is an integrated climate change assessment model constructed between 1990 and 1992 for DG XI of the Commission of the European Community by a consortium of research institutes headed by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). It has been designed to enable the user to generate future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (through an energy-economic model), examine their impact on global climate and sea level (through two independent global climate models), and illustrate some of the consequences of this global climate change at a regional scale for the European Community (through a regional climate scenario generator and impact models). We provide a very brief overview of the ESCAPE model which, although innovative, suffers from a number of major limitations. Subsequent work in the CRU has concentrated on improvements to the global climate module and work has also commenced on an improved regional climate scenario generating module. These improvements will lead to a new integrated climate change assessment model, MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) which can easily be incorporated into new larger integrated frameworks developed by other institutes. (Author)

  15. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  16. Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

  17. Designing Indoor Climate. A Thesis on the Integration of Indoor Climate Analysis in Architectural Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Den Hartog, J.P.

    2003-12-01

    In contemporary architecture education, indoor climate and building installations suffer from a lack of popularity. Students of architecture, filled with great expectations and awe for the famous designers of the 20th century, find inspiration in examples such as Le Corbusier's Villa Savoy, Lloyd Wright's falling water or the Rietveld's Schroder house. Recognizable as this may be, great aesthetics constitute only a small part of creating architecture. The process of designing and constructing buildings comprises the involvement of a multitude of skills such as creating clear functional layouts, designing solid structures and taking care of healthy indoor climates. Most textbooks and magazines contemporary architecture do not cover the less attractive aspects of the indoor climate such as heating, ventilation and cooling unless these services form an important part of the buildings aesthetic identity. Recent examples regarding the integration of second skin facades and natural ventilation in indoor climate, sometimes fail to convince as a result of the lack of thorough evaluations and detailed information.

  18. Integration in urban climate adaptation: Lessons from Rotterdam on integration between scientific disciplines and integration between scientific and stakeholder knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, A.M.E.; Bosch, P.R.; Buijs, S.; Jacobs, C.M.J.; Moors, E.J.

    2015-01-01

    Based on the experience acquired in the Bergpolder Zuid district in the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands, this paper presents lessons learned so far on science-policy interactions supporting the adaptation to climate change in an urban district. Two types of integration issues were considered: (1)

  19. Integrated food–energy systems for climate-smart agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdanski Anne

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Food production needs to increase by 70%, mostly through yield increases, to feed the world in 2050. Increases in productivity achieved in the past are attributed in part to the significant use of fossil fuels. Energy use in agriculture is therefore also expected to rise in the future, further contributing to greenhouse emissions. At the same time, more than two-fifths of the world’s population still depends on unsustainably harvested wood energy for cooking and heating. Both types of energy use have detrimental impacts on the climate and natural resources. Continuing on this path is not an option as it will put additional pressure on the already stressed natural resource base and local livelihoods, while climate change is further reducing the resilience of agro-ecosystems and smallholder farmers. Ecosystem approaches that combine both food and energy production, such as agroforestry or integrated crop–livestock–biogas systems, could substantially mitigate these risks while providing both food and energy to rural and urban populations. Information and understanding on how to change course through the implementation of the practices outlined in this paper are urgently needed. Yet the scientific basis of such integrated systems, which is essential to inform decision-makers and to secure policy support, is still relatively scarce. The author therefore argues that new assessment methodologies based on a systems-oriented analysis are needed for analyzing these complex, multidisciplinary and large-scale phenomena.

  20. Integrated web system of geospatial data services for climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required. An approach for integrated analysis of georefernced climatological data sets based on combination of web and GIS technologies in the framework of spatial data infrastructure paradigm is presented. According to this approach a dedicated data-processing web system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is being developed. It is based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Agreement #14.613.21.0037.

  1. A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Stone, P. H.

    Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model's sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM

  2. Effect of urban climate on building integrated photovoltaics performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Wei; Wang Yiping; Ren Jianbo; Zhu Li

    2007-01-01

    It is generally recognized that BIPV (building integrated photovoltaics) has the potential to become a major source of renewable energy in the urban environment. The actual output of a PV module in the field is a function of orientation, total irradiance, spectral irradiance, wind speed, air temperature, soiling and various system-related losses. In urban areas, the attenuation of solar radiation due to air pollution is obvious, and the solar spectral content subsequently changes. The urban air temperature is higher than that in the surrounding countryside, and the wind speed in urban areas is usually less than that in rural areas. Three different models of PV power are used to investigate the effect of urban climate on PV performance. The results show that the dimming of solar radiation in the urban environment is the main reason for the decrease of PV module output using the climatic data of urban and rural sites in Mexico City for year 2003. The urban PV conversion efficiency is higher than that of the rural PV system because the PV module temperature in the urban areas is slightly lower than that in the rural areas in the case. The DC power output of PV seems to be underestimated if the spectral response of PV in the urban environment is not taken into account based on the urban hourly meteorological data of Sao Paulo for year 2004

  3. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  4. Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

    2016-05-01

    Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

  5. Effect of Integrated Feedback on Classroom Climate of Secondary School Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Nilesh Kumar

    2018-01-01

    This study aimed at finding out the effect of Integrated feedback on Classroom climate of secondary school teachers. This research is experimental in nature. Non-equivalent control group design suggested by Stanley and Campbell (1963) was used for the experiment. Integrated feedback was treatment and independent variable, Classroom climate was…

  6. Using Virtualization to Integrate Weather, Climate, and Coastal Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; Figueiredo, R.; Sheng, Y.

    2012-12-01

    To better understand and communicate the important roles of weather and climate on the coastal environment, a unique publically available tool is being developed to support research, education, and outreach activities. This tool uses virtualization technologies to facilitate an interactive, hands-on environment in which students, researchers, and general public can perform their own numerical modeling experiments. While prior efforts have focused solely on the study of the coastal and estuary environments, this effort incorporates the community supported weather and climate model (WRF-ARW) into the Coastal Science Educational Virtual Appliance (CSEVA), an education tool used to assist in the learning of coastal transport processes; storm surge and inundation; and evacuation modeling. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation, community developed and supported, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to be used internationally for research, operations, and teaching. It includes two dynamical solvers (ARW - Advanced Research WRF and NMM - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) as well as a data assimilation system. WRF-ARW is the ARW dynamics solver combined with other components of the WRF system which was developed primarily at NCAR, community support provided by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Included with WRF is the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) which is a set of programs to prepare input for real-data simulations. The CSEVA is based on the Grid Appliance (GA) framework and is built using virtual machine (VM) and virtual networking technologies. Virtualization supports integration of an operating system, libraries (e.g. Fortran, C, Perl, NetCDF, etc. necessary to build WRF), web server, numerical models/grids/inputs, pre-/post-processing tools (e.g. WPS / RIP4 or UPS), graphical user interfaces, "Cloud"-computing infrastructure and other tools into a

  7. IIASA's climate-vegetation-biogeochemical cycle module as a part of an integrated model for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganopolski, A.V.; Jonas, M.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzynski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.; Venevsky, S.V.

    1994-01-01

    The main objective of this study is the development of a hierarchy of coupled climate biosphere models with a full description of the global biogeochemical cycles. These models are planned for use as the core of a set of integrated models of climate change and they will incorporate the main elements of the Earth system (atmosphere, hydrosphere, pedosphere and biosphere) linked with each other (and eventually with the antroposphere) through the fluxes of heat, momentum, water and through the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen. This set of integrated models can be considered to fill the gap between highly simplified integrated models of climate change and very sophisticated and computationally expensive coupled models, developed on the basis of general circulation models (GCMs). It is anticipated that this range of integrated models will be an effective tool for investigating the broad spectrum of problems connected with the coexistence of human society and biosphere

  8. Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Similarly, planners and policymakers face barriers in applying and using climate ... Advancing the application of climate and hydrological information and its ... Call for new OWSD Fellowships for Early Career Women Scientists now open.

  9. Climate change and local pollution effects. An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaheim, H.A.; Kristin, A.; Seip, H.M.

    1999-01-01

    Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO 2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed. 72 refs

  10. Intrinsic ethics regarding integrated assessment models for climate management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schienke, Erich W; Baum, Seth D; Tuana, Nancy; Davis, Kenneth J; Keller, Klaus

    2011-09-01

    In this essay we develop and argue for the adoption of a more comprehensive model of research ethics than is included within current conceptions of responsible conduct of research (RCR). We argue that our model, which we label the ethical dimensions of scientific research (EDSR), is a more comprehensive approach to encouraging ethically responsible scientific research compared to the currently typically adopted approach in RCR training. This essay focuses on developing a pedagogical approach that enables scientists to better understand and appreciate one important component of this model, what we call intrinsic ethics. Intrinsic ethical issues arise when values and ethical assumptions are embedded within scientific findings and analytical methods. Through a close examination of a case study and its application in teaching, namely, evaluation of climate change integrated assessment models, this paper develops a method and case for including intrinsic ethics within research ethics training to provide scientists with a comprehensive understanding and appreciation of the critical role of values and ethical choices in the production of research outcomes.

  11. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

    2016-04-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

  12. Climatic Data Integration and Analysis - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.; Sheneman, L.; Gollberg, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA) is a five-year USDA/NIFA-funded coordinated agriculture project to examine the sustainability of cereal crop production systems in the Pacific Northwest, in relationship to ongoing climate change. As part of this effort, an extensive data management system has been developed to enable researchers, students, and the public, to upload, manage, and analyze various data. The REACCH PNA data management team has developed three core systems to encompass cyberinfrastructure and data management needs: 1) the reacchpna.org portal (https://www.reacchpna.org) is the entry point for all public and secure information, with secure access by REACCH PNA members for data analysis, uploading, and informational review; 2) the REACCH PNA Data Repository is a replicated, redundant database server environment that allows for file and database storage and access to all core data; and 3) the REACCH PNA Libraries which are functional groupings of data for REACCH PNA members and the public, based on their access level. These libraries are accessible thru our https://www.reacchpna.org portal. The developed system is structured in a virtual server environment (data, applications, web) that includes a geospatial database/geospatial web server for web mapping services (ArcGIS Server), use of ESRI's Geoportal Server for data discovery and metadata management (under the ISO 19115-2 standard), Thematic Realtime Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) for data cataloging, and Interactive Python notebook server (IPython) technology for data analysis. REACCH systems are housed and maintained by the Northwest Knowledge Network project (www.northwestknowledge.net), which provides data management services to support research. Initial project data harvesting and meta-tagging efforts have resulted in the interrogation and loading of over 10 terabytes of climate model output, regional entomological data

  13. Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.

    2011-01-01

    Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

  14. Integrating Climate and Ecosystem-Response Sciences in Temperate Western North American Mountains: The CIRMOUNT Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, C. I.; Fagre, D. B.

    2004-12-01

    Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, vulnerable to climate effects on biotic and physical factors of intense social concern, and serve as critical early-warning systems of climate impacts. Escalating demands on western North American (WNA) mountain ecosystems increasingly stress both natural resources and rural community capacities; changes in mountain systems cascade to issues of national concern. Although WNA has long been a focus for climate- and climate-related environmental research, these efforts remain disciplinary and poorly integrated, hindering interpretation into policy and management. Knowledge is further hampered by lack of standardized climate monitoring stations at high-elevations in WNA. An initiative is emerging as the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) whose primary goal is to improve knowledge of high-elevation climate systems and to better integrate physical, ecological, and social sciences relevant to climate change, ecosystem response, and natural-resource policy in WNA. CIRMOUNT seeks to focus research on climate variability and ecosystem response (progress in understanding synoptic scale processes) that improves interpretation of linkages between ecosystem functions and human processing (progress in understanding human-environment integration), which in turn would yield applicable information and understanding on key societal issues such as mountains as water towers, biodiversity, carbon forest sinks, and wildland hazards such as fire and forest dieback (progress in understanding ecosystem services and key thresholds). Achieving such integration depends first on implementing a network of high-elevation climate-monitoring stations, and linking these with integrated ecosystem-response studies. Achievements since 2003 include convening the 2004 Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium (1, 2) and several special sessions at technical conferences; initiating a biennial mountain climate

  15. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) changing activities in recent years shows that governance integration – both within global energy governance and between global energy and climate governance – is now happening. The IEA has broadened its portfolio to embrace the full spectrum of energy issues, including renewable energy and climate change; it has built and is expanding key partnerships with both the UN climate convention and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA); and it has become an authoritative advocate for the inter-related goals of a low-carbon transition and climate change mitigation. We show that these developments are not the result of a top-down plan, but have rather emerged through the Agency’s various efforts to pursue its energy-centric mandate in a fast-changing global policy environment. - Highlights: • Assesses integration between global energy and global climate governance. • Analyzes organizational change in the IEA and its impact on governance integration. • Discusses recent activities and advocacy by the IEA in relation to climate change.

  16. Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda M. Nagel; Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak

    2010-01-01

    Silviculturists are currently facing the challenge of developing management strategies that meet broad ecological and social considerations in spite of a high degree of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. Forest managers need state-of-the-art knowledge about climate change and potential impacts to facilitate development of silvicultural objectives and...

  17. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed......Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

  18. Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

    2017-12-01

    Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for

  19. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

  20. Does temperature nudging overwhelm aerosol radiative effects in regional integrated climate models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    For over two decades, data assimilation (popularly known as nudging) methods have been used for improving regional weather and climate simulations by reducing model biases in meteorological parameters and processes. Similar practice is also popular in many regional integrated met...

  1. Climate proofing water and sanitation services and applying integrated water resource management in slums

    OpenAIRE

    Heath, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    This thesis assesses how climate change impacts water resources and communities and reviews how the resource can be managed in an integrated manner for small water and sanitation providers. This thesis was based upon a 10 month Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) between Cranfield University and Water and Sanitation for the Urban Poor (WSUP). The aim of the project was to assess the opportunities and vulnerabilities presented by climate change and how Integrated Water Resource ...

  2. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  3. Integrated energy planning: Strategies to mitigate climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, Johnny N; Sheffield, John W [University of Missouri-Rolla (United States)

    1997-07-01

    The framework convention on climate change, signed by more than 150 governments worldwide in June 1992, calls on parties to the convention undertaken inventories of national sources and sinks of greenhouse gases and to develop plans for responding to climate change. The energy sector is comprised of the major energy demand sectors (industry, residential and commercial, transport and agriculture), and the energy supply sector, which consists of resource extraction, conversion, and delivery of energy products. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions occur at various points in the sector, from resource extraction to end use application, and accordingly, options for mitigation exist at various points. In most countries, will be a major focus of GHG mitigation analysis. The primary focus of this paper is on the identification of strategies that can mitigate climate changes on the basis of integrated energy planing analysis. The overall approach follows a methodology developed by the U.S. Country Studies Program under the framework of the Convention's commitments. It involves the development of scenarios based on energy uses and evaluation of specific technologies that can satisfy demands for energy services. One can compare technologies based on their relative cost to achieve a unit of GHG reduction and other features of interest. This approach gives equal weight to both energy supply and energy demand options. A variety of screening criteria including indicators of cost-effectiveness as well as non-economic analysis concerns, can be used to identify and assess promising options, which can then be combined to create one or more scenarios. Mitigation scenarios are evaluated against the backdrop of a baseline scenario, which simulates assumed to take place in the absence of mitigation efforts. Mitigation scenarios can be designed to meet specific emission reduction targets or to simulate the effect of specific policy inventions. The paper ends with an application using a

  4. VALUE - Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Benestad, Rasmus; Kotlarski, Sven; Huth, Radan; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Gutierrez, Jose

    2013-04-01

    Our understanding of global climate change is mainly based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a relatively coarse resolution. Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. Several projects have been carried out over the last years to validate the performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling, yet several aspects have not been systematically addressed: variability on sub-daily, decadal and longer time-scales, extreme events, spatial variability and inter-variable relationships. Different downscaling approaches such as dynamical downscaling, statistical downscaling and bias correction approaches have not been systematically compared. Furthermore, collaboration between different communities, in particular regional climate modellers, statistical downscalers and statisticians has been limited. To address these gaps, the EU Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) action VALUE (www.value-cost.eu) has been brought into life. VALUE is a research network with participants from currently 23 European countries running from 2012 to 2015. Its main aim is to systematically validate and develop downscaling methods for climate change research in order to improve regional climate change scenarios for use in climate impact studies. Inspired by the co-design idea of the international research initiative "future earth", stakeholders of climate change information have been involved in the definition of research questions to be addressed and are actively participating in the network. The key idea of VALUE is to identify the relevant weather and climate characteristics required as input for a wide range of impact models and to define an open framework to systematically validate these characteristics. Based on a range of benchmark data sets, in principle every downscaling method can be validated and compared with competing methods. The results of

  5. Integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, K.; Kuikman, P.J.; Veraart, J.A.; Van Walsum, P.E.V.; Westein, E.; Verhagen, A.; Daan, N.; Van Ierland, E.C.; Szoenyi, J.; De Groot, R.S.; Van Vliet, A.; Martens, P.; Amelung, B.; Huynen, M.

    2002-01-01

    In recent decades it has become increasingly clear that the global climate is warming and that regional climates are changing. The changes include alterations in rainfall pattern and intensities, sea level, and the frequencies of extreme weather events. Climate changes will not just have global effects, they will also occur regionally. The consequences will be felt and dealt with in our own region. In addition to studies at the European level, a study entitled 'An integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options in the Netherlands' was carried out

  6. Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.

    2006-01-01

    Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

  7. Climate change and foreign policy : an exploration of options for greater integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drexhage, J.; Murphy, D.; Brown, O.; Cosbey, A.; Dickey, P.; Parry, J.-E.; Van Ham, J.; Tarasofsky, R.; Darkin, B.

    2007-01-01

    Climate change is a global challenge and one of biggest challenges of this century. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires new thinking in foreign policy. This paper discussed the results of a research study that examined the role of foreign policy in fostering a more effective international response to the challenge of climate change. The scope involved an examination of instruments relevant to Danish foreign policy. The paper first identified the climate change challenge and discussed international diplomacy and relations. Energy security and investment was discussed in terms of the impact of energy security on climate change efforts and opportunities for integration. Other areas where critical issues and opportunities for integration were offered include international peace and security; trade and investment; and development cooperation. The paper made several recommendations in these areas in addition to diplomatic networking. The study concluded that foreign policy can further the climate change agenda in a number of areas in diplomacy and foreign relations within the European Union, transatlantic relations, Arctic issues and United Nations affairs. This includes better integration of climate change into the European Union's common foreign and security policy, the Lisbon Agenda, and incorporating climate change in the work of a wide range of bodies under the United Nations. refs., figs

  8. Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helder Fraga

    Full Text Available The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

  9. Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A

    2014-01-01

    The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

  10. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Cho

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The APEC Climate Center (APCC produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1 the Simple Bias Correction (SBC method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2 the Moving Window Regression (MWR method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3 the Climate Index Regression (CIR method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4 the Integrated Time Regression (ITR method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  11. Subtask 2.4 - Integration and Synthesis in Climate Change Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaroslav Solc

    2009-06-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed a brief evaluation of the existing status of predictive modeling to assess options for integration of our previous paleohydrologic reconstructions and their synthesis with current global climate scenarios. Results of our research indicate that short-term data series available from modern instrumental records are not sufficient to reconstruct past hydrologic events or predict future ones. On the contrary, reconstruction of paleoclimate phenomena provided credible information on past climate cycles and confirmed their integration in the context of regional climate history is possible. Similarly to ice cores and other paleo proxies, acquired data represent an objective, credible tool for model calibration and validation of currently observed trends. It remains a subject of future research whether further refinement of our results and synthesis with regional and global climate observations could contribute to improvement and credibility of climate predictions on a regional and global scale.

  12. Integrating Climate Change Science and Sustainability in Environmental Science, Sociology, Philosophy and Business Courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudrias, M. A.; Cantzler, J.; Croom, S.; Huston, C.; Woods, M.

    2015-12-01

    Courses on sustainability can be taught from multiple perspectives with some focused on specific areas (environmental, socio-cultural, economic, ethics) and others taking a more integrated approach across areas of sustainability and academic disciplines. In conjunction with the Climate Change Education Program efforts to enhance climate change literacy with innovative approaches, resources and communication strategies developed by Climate Education Partners were used in two distinct ways to integrate climate change science and impacts into undergraduate and graduate level courses. At the graduate level, the first lecture in the MBA program in Sustainable Supply Chain Management is entirely dedicated to climate change science, local and global impacts and discussions about key messages to communicate to the business community. Basic science concepts are integrated with discussions about mitigation and adaptation focused on business leaders. The concepts learned are then applied to the semester-long business plan project for the students. At the undergraduate level, a new model of comprehensive integration across disciplines was implemented in Spring 2015 across three courses on Sustainability each with a specific lens: Natural Science, Sociology and Philosophy. All three courses used climate change as the 'big picture' framing concept and had similar learning objectives creating a framework where lens-specific topics, focusing on depth in a discipline, were balanced with integrated exercises across disciplines providing breadth and possibilities for integration. The comprehensive integration project was the creation of the climate action plan for the university with each team focused on key areas of action (water, energy, transportation, etc.) and each team built with at least one member from each class ensuring a natural science, sociological and philosophical perspective. The final project was presented orally to all three classes and an integrated paper included

  13. Climate-dependent evolution of Antarctic ectotherms: An integrative analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, Hans O.

    2006-04-01

    The paper explores the climate-dependent evolution of marine Antarctic fauna and tries to identify key mechanisms involved as well as the driving forces that have caused the physiological and life history characteristics observed today. In an integrative approach it uses the recent concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance to identify potential links between molecular, cellular, whole-organism, and ecological characteristics of marine animal life in the Antarctic. As a generalized pattern, minimization of baseline energy costs, for the sake of maximized growth in the cold, appears as one over-arching principle shaping the evolution and functioning of Antarctic marine ectotherms. This conclusion is supported by recent comparisons with (sub-) Arctic ectotherms, where elevated levels of energy turnover result at unstable, including cold temperatures, and are related to wide windows of thermal tolerance and associated metabolic features. At biochemical levels, metabolic regulation at low temperatures in general, is supported by the cold compensation of enzyme kinetic parameters like substrate affinities and turnover numbers, through minute structural modifications of the enzyme molecule. These involve a shift in protein folding, sometimes supported by the replacement of individual amino acids. The hypothesis is developed that efficient metabolic regulation at low rates in Antarctic marine stenotherms occurs through high mitochondrial densities at low capacities and possibly enhanced levels of Arrhenius activation energies or activation enthalpies. This contrasts the more costly patterns of metabolic regulation at elevated rates in cold-adapted eurytherms. Energy savings in Antarctic ectotherms, largely exemplified in fish, typically involve low-cost, diffusive oxygen distribution due to high density of lipid membranes, loss of haemoglobin, myoglobin and the heat shock response, reduced anaerobic capacity, large myocytes with low ion exchange activities

  14. ESCAPE: an integrated climate model for the EC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rotmans, J.

    1992-01-01

    A framework has been developed for the evaluation of policy options for climate change, called ESCAPE (Evaluation of Strategies to address Climate change by Adapting to and Preventing Emissions). ESCAPE consists of a suite of linked models which enables scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions to be constructed and their impact on global and regional climate and sea level and sectors of the European economy to be assessed. Conclusions resulting from simulations with the ESCAPE 1.1 model include: the major problem of a climate change for the EC is a sea level rise; Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain will be faced with higher costs in the agricultural sector; worldwide implementation of an EC carbon tax leads to about 12% lower worldwide CO 2 emissions; to stabilize CO 2 emissions an Ecotax of 18 dollars per barrel would be required; and in all cases the rate of global temperature increase will be above the rate of 0.1 degree C per decade for the coming 40 years. 2 figs

  15. Integration of Information on Climate, Soil and Cultivar to Increase ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    short growing period, the semi-arid eco-regions like the Central Rift Valley of. Ethiopia ... its variety development-release chain, giving little or no room for climate risk .... Split plot in a randomized complete block design was used with three.

  16. Integrating development and climate policies: National and international benefits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, M.; Metz, B.; Verhagen, J.

    2008-01-01

    What lessons for policy makers at national and international level can be drawn from the growing experiences of reconciling development and climate change? The key to achieving this is to approach the problem from the development perspective, since that is where in most countries the priority lies.

  17. The Integration of Climate Science and Collaborative Processes in Building Regional Climate Resiliency in Southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurado, J.

    2016-12-01

    Southeast Florida is widely recognized as one of the most vulnerable regions in the United States to the impacts of climate change, especially sea level rise. Dense urban populations, low land elevations, flat topography, complex shorelines and a porous geology all contribute to the region's challenges. Regional and local governments have been working collaboratively to address shared climate mitigation and adaptation concerns as part of the four-county Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (Compact). This partnership has emphasized, in part, the use of climate data and the development of advanced technical tools and visualizations to help inform decision-making, improve communications, and guide investments. Prominent work products have included regional vulnerability maps and assessments, a unified sea level rise projection for southeast Florida, the development and application of hydrologic models in scenario planning, interdisciplinary resilient redesign planning workshops, and the development of regional climate indicators. Key to the Compact's efforts has been the engagement and expertise of academic and agency partners, including a formal collaboration between the Florida Climate Institute and the Compact to improve research and project collaborations focused on southeast Florida. This presentation will focus on the collaborative processes and work products that have served to accelerate resiliency planning and investments in southeast Florida, with specific examples of how local governments are using these work products to modernize agency processes, and build support among residents and business leaders.

  18. Pleistocene climate, phylogeny, and climate envelope models: an integrative approach to better understand species' response to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Michelle Lawing

    Full Text Available Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models, phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species, and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr.

  19. A piecewise-integration method for simulating the influence of external forcing on climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhifu Zhang; Chongjian Qiu; Chenghai Wang

    2008-01-01

    Climate drift occurs in most general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of incomplete physical and numerical representation of the complex climate system,which may cause large uncertainty in sensitivity experiments evaluating climate response to changes in external forcing.To solve this problem,we propose a piecewise-integration method to reduce the systematic error in climate sensitivity studies.The observations are firstly assimilated into a numerical model by using the dynamic relaxation technique to relax to the current state of atmosphere,and then the assimilated fields are continuously used to reinitialize the simulation to reduce the error of climate simulation.When the numerical model is integrated with changed external forcing,the results can be split into two parts,background and perturbation fields,and the background is the state before the external forcing is changed.The piecewise-integration method is used to continuously reinitialize the model with the assimilated field,instead of the background.Therefore,the simulation error of the model with the external forcing can be reduced.In this way,the accuracy of climate sensitivity experiments is greatly improved.Tests with a simple low-order spectral model show that this approach can significantly reduce the uncertainty of climate sensitivity experiments.

  20. Climate Discovery: Integrating Research With Exhibit, Public Tours, K-12, and Web-based EPO Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, S. Q.; Carbone, L.; Gardiner, L.; Johnson, R.; Russell, R.; Advisory Committee, S.; Ammann, C.; Lu, G.; Richmond, A.; Maute, A.; Haller, D.; Conery, C.; Bintner, G.

    2005-12-01

    The Climate Discovery Exhibit at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Lab provides an exciting conceptual outline for the integration of several EPO activities with other well-established NCAR educational resources and programs. The exhibit is organized into four topic areas intended to build understanding among NCAR's 80,000 annual visitors, including 10,000 school children, about Earth system processes and scientific methods contributing to a growing body of knowledge about climate and global change. These topics include: 'Sun-Earth Connections,' 'Climate Now,' 'Climate Past,' and 'Climate Future.' Exhibit text, graphics, film and electronic media, and interactives are developed and updated through collaborations between NCAR's climate research scientists and staff in the Office of Education and Outreach (EO) at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). With funding from NCAR, paleoclimatologists have contributed data and ideas for a new exhibit Teachers' Guide unit about 'Climate Past.' This collection of middle-school level, standards-aligned lessons are intended to help students gain understanding about how scientists use proxy data and direct observations to describe past climates. Two NASA EPO's have funded the development of 'Sun-Earth Connection' lessons, visual media, and tips for scientists and teachers. Integrated with related content and activities from the NASA-funded Windows to the Universe web site, these products have been adapted to form a second unit in the Climate Discovery Teachers' Guide about the Sun's influence on Earth's climate. Other lesson plans, previously developed by on-going efforts of EO staff and NSF's previously-funded Project Learn program are providing content for a third Teachers' Guide unit on 'Climate Now' - the dynamic atmospheric and geological processes that regulate Earth's climate. EO has plans to collaborate with NCAR climatologists and computer modelers in the next year to develop

  1. Integrating climate change into habitat conservation plans under the U.S. endangered species act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernazzani, Paola; Bradley, Bethany A; Opperman, Jeffrey J

    2012-06-01

    Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) are an important mechanism for the acquisition of land and the management of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. HCPs have become a vital means of protecting endangered and threatened species and their habitats throughout the United States, particularly on private land. The scientific consensus that climate is changing and that these changes will impact the viability of species has not been incorporated into the conservation strategies of recent HCPs, rendering plans vulnerable biologically. In this paper we review the regulatory context for incorporating climate change into HCPs and analyze the extent to which climate change is linked to management actions in a subset of large HCPs. We conclude that most current plans do not incorporate climate change into conservation actions, and so we provide recommendations for integrating climate change into the process of HCP development and implementation. These recommendations are distilled from the published literature as well as the practice of conservation planning and are structured to the specific needs of HCP development and implementation. We offer nine recommendations for integrating climate change into the HCP process: (1) identify species at-risk from climate change, (2) explore new strategies for reserve design, (3) increase emphasis on corridors, linkages, and connectivity, (4) develop anticipatory adaptation measures, (5) manage for diversity, (6) consider assisted migration, (7) include climate change in scenarios of water management, (8) develop future-oriented management actions, and (9) increase linkages between the conservation strategy and adaptive management/monitoring programs.

  2. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

    OpenAIRE

    Jianjun Huai

    2016-01-01

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an ?integrative typology? of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the ?5W1H...

  3. Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS): Integrated perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Karcher, Michael; Gascard, Jean-Claude

    2017-12-01

    This introduction to the special issue presents an overview of the wide range of results produced during the European Union project Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS). This project assessed the main impacts of climate change on Arctic Ocean's geophysical variables and how these impending changes could be expected to impact directly and indirectly on socio-economic activities like transportation, marine sea food production and resource exploitation. Related governance issues were examined. These results were used to develop several management tools that can live on beyond ACCESS. In this article, we synthesize most of the project results in the form of tentative responses to questions raised during the project. By doing so, we put the findings of the project in a broader perspective and introduce the contributions made in the different articles published in this special issue.

  4. Integrating Communication Best Practices in the Third National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassol, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    Modern climate science assessments now have a history of nearly a quarter-century. This experience, together with important advances in relevant social sciences, has greatly improved our ability to communicate climate science effectively. As a result, the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) was designed to be truly accessible and useful to all its intended audiences, while still being comprehensive and scientifically accurate. At a time when meeting the challenge of climate change is increasingly recognized as an urgent national and global priority, the NCA is proving to be valuable to decision-makers, the media, and the public. In producing this latest NCA, a communication perspective was an important part of the process from the beginning, rather than an afterthought as has often been the case with scientific reports. Lessons learned from past projects and science communications research fed into developing the communication strategy for the Third NCA. A team of editors and graphic designers worked closely with the authors on language, graphics, and photographs throughout the development of the report, Highlights document, and other products. A web design team helped bring the report to life online. There were also innovations in outreach, including a network of organizations intended to extend the reach of the assessment by engaging stakeholders throughout the process. Professional slide set development and media training were part of the preparation for the report's release. The launch of the NCA in May 2014 saw widespread and ongoing media coverage, continued references to the NCA by decision-makers, and praise from many quarters for its excellence in making complex science clear and accessible. This NCA is a professionally crafted report that exemplifies best practices in 21st century communications.

  5. Towards a integrated blueprint for climate and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C.

    2002-05-01

    This paper aims at launching our exchange about the Climate - Development issue. I will venture to encompass the many facets of this debate in order not to preclude discussions by pre-organizing these facets into too strict a hierarchy. I will also raise questions about the perception of issues by developed and non-developed countries while providing elements of a dispassionate analysis which may be an oxymoron in these matters. (author)

  6. Estimating climate change impact on irrigation demand using integrated modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zupanc, Vesna; Pintar, Marina

    2004-01-01

    Water is basic element in agriculture, and along with the soil characteristics, it remains the essential for the growth and evolution of plants. Trends of air temperature and precipitation for Slovenia indicate the increase of the air temperature and reduction of precipitation during the vegetation period, which will have a substantial impact on rural economy in Slovenia. The impact of climate change will be substantial for soil the water balance. Distinctive drought periods in past years had great impact on rural plants in light soils. Climate change will most probably also result in drought in soils which otherwise provide optimal water supply for plants. Water balance in the cross section of the rooting depth is significant for the agriculture. Mathematical models enable smaller amount of measurements in a certain area by means of measurements carried out only in characteristic points serving for verification and calibration of the model. Combination of on site measurements and mathematical modelling proved to be an efficient method for understanding of processes in nature. Climate scenarios made for the estimation of the impact of climate change are based on the general circulation models. A study based on a hundred year set of monthly data showed that in Slovenia temperature would increase at min. by 2.3 o C, and by 5.6 o C at max and by 4.5 o C in average. Valid methodology for the estimate of the impact of climate change applies the model using a basic set of data for a thirty year period (1961-1990) and a changed set of climate input parameters on one hand, and, on the other, a comparison of output results of the model. Estimating climate change impact on irrigation demand for West Slovenia for peaches and nectarines grown on Cambisols and Fluvisols was made using computer model SWAP. SWAP is a precise and power too[ for the estimation of elements of soil water balance at the level of cross section of the monitored and studied profile from the soil surface

  7. Climate change, uncertainty, and resilient fisheries: Institutional responses through integrative science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, K.; Charles, A.; Barange, M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the importance of a focus on the fundamental goals of resilience and adaptive capacity in the governance of uncertain fishery systems, particularly in the context of climate change. Climate change interacts strongly with fishery systems, and adds to the inherent uncertainty...... that understanding these aspects of fishery systems and fishery governance is valuable even in the absence of climate-induced processes of change, but that attention to climate change both reinforces the need for, and facilitates the move toward, implementation of integrative science for improved fishery governance....... and processes – to support suitable institutional responses, a broader planning perspective, and development of suitable resilience-building strategies. The paper explores how synergies between institutional change and integrative science can facilitate the development of more effective fisheries policy...

  8. Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tongli; O'Neill, Gregory A; Aitken, Sally N

    2010-01-01

    Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

  9. Integrated simulation, evaluation of the climatic risks and safety policies. Synthesis report july 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hourcade, J.Ch.; LeTreut, H.

    2002-07-01

    The aim of this program is the improvement of the natural phenomena representation in the integrated models of the climate policies evaluation and to precise the methodological problems resulting from the damages treatment. It underlines the importance of the retroactions between the CO 2 emissions, the lands affectation and the carbon cycle, as the importance of the uncertainties on the climate sensitivity. (A.L.B.)

  10. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Munaretto

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate adaptation, adaptive governance seems to be a promising approach for improving climate adaptation governance. However, the adaptive governance literature has so far paid little attention to decision-making tools and methods, and the literature on the governance of adaptation is in its infancy in this regard. We argue that climate adaptation governance would benefit from systematic and yet flexible decision-making tools and methods such as participatory multicriteria methods for the evaluation of adaptation options, and that these methods can be linked to key adaptive governance principles. Moving from these premises, we propose a framework that integrates key adaptive governance features into participatory multicriteria methods for the governance of climate adaptation.

  11. Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: a northern hemisphere perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Omasa, Kenji; Paoletti, Elena

    2007-06-01

    Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiative balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies.

  12. Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

    2012-01-01

    Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

  13. Integrated model for predicting rice yield with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jin-Ki; Das, Amrita; Park, Jong-Hwa

    2018-04-01

    Rice is the chief agricultural product and one of the primary food source. For this reason, it is of pivotal importance for worldwide economy and development. Therefore, in a decision-support-system both for the farmers and in the planning and management of the country's economy, forecasting yield is vital. However, crop yield, which is a dependent of the soil-bio-atmospheric system, is difficult to represent in statistical language. This paper describes a novel approach for predicting rice yield using artificial neural network, spatial interpolation, remote sensing and GIS methods. Herein, the variation in the yield is attributed to climatic parameters and crop health, and the normalized difference vegetation index from MODIS is used as an indicator of plant health and growth. Due importance was given to scaling up the input parameters using spatial interpolation and GIS and minimising the sources of error in every step of the modelling. The low percentage error (2.91) and high correlation (0.76) signifies the robust performance of the proposed model. This simple but effective approach is then used to estimate the influence of climate change on South Korean rice production. As proposed in the RCP8.5 scenario, an upswing in temperature may increase the rice yield throughout South Korea.

  14. High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50

  15. Integration of information on climate, soil and cultivar to increase ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BH660 shows higher water productivity (9.46 kgmm-1 of rainfall) under 2*MMP tillage than late plantings in experimental years. About 84 % of the variability in grain yield (BH660), 88% (Bolondie), 76% (A-511) and 70% (Limat) can be explained by the available soil water in crop root zone at planting. Hence, integration of ...

  16. The case for integrated air quality and climate change policies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Thambiran, Tirusha

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available integration of these two issues, and actions to support the implementation thereof, are presented in this paper using the city of Durban as a case study. The results from this case study suggest that in the short-to medium-term, local AQMPs can be used...

  17. Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision

  18. Hydropower, an integral part of Canada's climate change strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortin, P.

    1999-01-01

    The development and implementation of a climate change policy could be among the most far-reaching environmental initiatives ever embarked upon in Canada and abroad. If Canada is to stabilize or reduce its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions over the long term, a significant adjustment to Canadian industry will be required as we move away from fossil fuel-intensive and GHG producing activities. Future hydroelectric projects provide Canada with a unique opportunity to significantly reduce the costs associated with stabilizing its GHG emissions. In addition, the energy storage and dispatchability associated with hydropower can support development of other low emitting renewable resources such as wind and solar. This document discusses the potential role of hydropower as a tool to reduce emissions, recommends action to reduce barriers facing hydropower and comments on some of the policy tools available to manage Canada's GHG emissions. (author)

  19. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

    2010-09-01

    Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

  20. An Integrated Control System for Heating and Indoor Climate Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahersima, Fatemeh

    2012-01-01

    which geothermal heat pump, solar driven heat pumps and the other types are categorized as renewable or renewable energy sources. In the present study, we investigated modeling and control of hydronic heat emitters integrated with a ground-source heat pump. Optimization of the system performance...... in terms of energy efficiency, associated energy cost and occupants’ thermal comfort is the main objective to be fulfilled via design of an integrated controller. We also proposed control strategies to manage energy consumption of the building to turn domestic heat demands into a flexible load in the smart...... in order to maximize the heat pump’s efficiency and by this means reduce the power consumption of the heat pump. The hypothesis is that such an optimal point coincides with saturation of at least one of the subsystems control valves. The idea is implemented experimentally using simple PI and on...

  1. Challenges in Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Water Resources Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirshen, P. H.; Cardwell, H.; Kartez, J.; Merrill, S.

    2011-12-01

    Over the last few decades, integrated water resources management (IWRM), under various names, has become the accepted philosophy for water management in the USA. While much is still to be learned about how to actually carry it out, implementation is slowly moving forward - spurred by both legislation and the demands of stakeholders. New challenges to IWRM have arisen because of climate change. Climate change has placed increased demands on the creativities of planners and engineers because they now must design systems that will function over decades of hydrologic uncertainties that dwarf any previous hydrologic or other uncertainties. Climate and socio-economic monitoring systems must also now be established to determine when the future climate has changed sufficiently to warrant undertaking adaptation. The requirements for taking some actions now and preserving options for future actions as well as the increased risk of social inequities in climate change impacts and adaptation are challenging experts in stakeholder participation. To meet these challenges, an integrated methodology is essential that builds upon scenario analysis, risk assessment, statistical decision theory, participatory planning, and consensus building. This integration will create cross-disciplinary boundaries for these disciplines to overcome.

  2. Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: A northern hemisphere perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Omasa, Kenji; Paoletti, Elena

    2007-01-01

    Many air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, contribute to radiative balance, interact in the atmosphere, and affect ecosystems. The impacts on forest ecosystems have been traditionally treated separately for air pollution and climate change. However, the combined effects may significantly differ from a sum of separate effects. We review the links between air pollution and climate change and their interactive effects on northern hemisphere forests. A simultaneous addressing of the air pollution and climate change effects on forests may result in more effective research, management and monitoring as well as better integration of local, national and global environmental policies. - Simultaneous addressing air pollution and climate change effects on forests is an opportunity for capturing synergies in future research and monitoring

  3. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-02-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  4. Integrating climate change adaptation into civil protection: comparative lessons from Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groven, K.; Aall, C.; van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Carlsson-Kanyama, A.; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Integrating policy on climate change adaptation into civil protection is explored through studies of extreme weather management at the national level in Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands, and through local case studies of the three coastal cities of Bergen, Malmö and Rotterdam. The research issues

  5. Integrating ecosystem services and climate change responses in coastal wetlands development plans for Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sarwar, M.H.; Hein, L.G.; Rip, F.I.; Dearing, J.A.

    2015-01-01

    This study explores the integration of ecosystem services and climate change adaptation in development plans for coastal wetlands in Bangladesh. A new response framework for adaptation is proposed, based on an empirical analysis and consultations with stakeholders, using a modified version of the

  6. Stakeholder consultations in the energy directorate : can they help integrate climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vasileiadou, E.; Tuinstra, W.

    2013-01-01

    Investigation of the conditions under which formal stakeholder consultations of the Directorate General Energy of the European Commission can help integrate climate change policy in energy policy in the European Union suggests that stakeholder consultations that aim at producing soft law and binding

  7. Introducing integrated food-energy systems that work for people and climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogdanski, Anne [Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy)

    2011-07-01

    Bioenergy can be part of the implementation of climate-smart agricultural development. However, it is crucial to develop bioenergy operations in ways that mitigate risks and harness benefits. Integrated Food-Energy Systems (IFES) can play an important role in doing so. (orig.)

  8. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  9. Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

    2008-01-01

    Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

  10. Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santikayasa, I. P.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

  11. Strategies for Integrating Content from the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment into the K-12 Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haine, D. B.

    2016-12-01

    That the physical environment shapes the lives and behaviors of people is certainly not news, but communicating the impact of a changing climate on human health and predicting the trajectory of these changes is an active area of study in public health. From air quality concerns to extreme heat to shifts in the range of disease vectors, there are many opportunities to make connections between Earth's changing climate and human health. While many science teachers understand that addressing human health impacts as a result of a changing climate can provide needed relevance, it can be challenging for teachers to do so given an already packed curriculum. This session will share instructional strategies for integrating content from the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment (CHA) by enhancing, rather than displacing content related to climate science. This presentation will feature a data interpretation activity developed in collaboration with geoscientists at the University of North Carolina's Gillings School of Public Health to convey the connection between air quality, climate change and human health. This classroom activity invites students to read excerpts from the CHA and interpret data presented in the scientific literature, thus promoting scientific literacy. In summarizing this activity, I will highlight strategies for effectively engaging geoscientists in developing scientifically rigorous, STEM-focused educational activities that are aligned to state and national science standards and also address the realities of the science classroom. Collaborating with geoscientists and translating their research into classroom activities is an approach that becomes more pertinent with the advent of the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Thus, the USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment represents an opportunity to cultivate science literacy among K-12 students while providing relevant learning experiences that promote integration of science and engineering practices as

  12. Solving the Global Climate Monitoring Problem in the Atmosphere: Towards SI-tied Climate Records with Integrated Uncertainty Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    influences) exists so far. Establishing such a trace first-time in form of the Reference Occultation Processing System rOPS, providing reference RO data for climate science and applications, is therefore a current cornerstone endeavor at the Wegener Center over 2011 to 2015, supported also by colleagues from other key groups at EUMETSAT Darmstadt, UCAR Boulder, DMI Copenhagen, ECMWF Reading, IAP Moscow, AIUB Berne, and RMIT Melbourne. With the rOPS we undertake to process the full chain from the SI-tied raw data to the atmospheric ECVs with integrated uncertainty propagation. We summarize where we currently stand in quantifying RO accuracy and long-term stability and then discuss the concept, development status and initial results from the rOPS, with emphasis on its novel capability to provide SI-tied reference data with integrated uncertainty estimation. We comment how these data can provide ground-breaking support to challenges such as climate model evaluation, anthropogenic change detection and attribution, and calibration of complementary climate observing systems.

  13. Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

    2008-01-01

    This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy

  14. ICLIPS - integrated assessment of climate protection strategies. Final report; ICLIPS - Integrierte Abschaetzung von Klimaschutzstrategien. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toth, F.L.; Bruckner, T.; Fuessel, H.M.

    2000-12-01

    The ICLIPs project is connected to the development of integrated climate impact research in Germany. It is concerned not only with a single dimension of possible impacts of climate change, but it also investigates these impacts in the context of adaptation options and mitigation possibilities. The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) permits the explicit consideration of both ecological and economic requirements in identifying tolerable climate protection strategies. This way it fulfills the central objective of science policy related to the complex issue of 'Sustainable Growth'. In the project period, the ICLIPS model, a detailed integrated model of global climate change ('Integrated Assessment Model', IAM) was developed in the framework of a successful international cooperation. As a result, climate impact research in Germany succeeded to catch up with the international forefront in a research field that is very important for practical policy advice, and even managed to take a leading role in some important sub-fields. The ICLIPS model contains a series of innovative features that clearly distinguish this model from other intertemporal optimization models. The features worth mentioning here include: a numerically highly efficient climate model that covers all relevant greenhouse gases; a series of Climate Impact Response Functions that depict climate-relevant changes in natural vegetation systems, agricultural yields, and water availability; and finally a model of long-term economic development that explicitly considers the cost-reducing effects of technological learning. (orig.) [German] Das ICLIPS-Projekt bezieht sich auf die Weiterentwicklung der integrierten Klimafolgenforschung in Deutschland, die sich nicht nur eindimensional mit moeglichen Auswirkungen von Klimaveraenderungen beschaeftigt, sondern diese zusammen mit Anpassungsoptionen und Vermeidungsmoeglichkeiten untersucht. Der Fensteransatz, der bei der Identifizierung von tolerierbaren

  15. An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture

  16. An evaluation of integrated climate protection policies for the US

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Institute, Boston, MA (United States)

    1998-04-01

    This paper summaries an analysis of an integrated set of policies designed to reduce carbon emissions in the US during the next four decades. This policy package, which was the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), also aims to promote environmental quality, particularly by reducing emissions of criteria air pollutants, (CO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2}, particulates, volatile organic compounds). to reduce US dependence on imported oil, and to induce technological innovation and diffusion in energy production and consumption. The policy package analyzed is found to reduce economy-wide carbon emissions by 10% relative to 1990 levels in 2010, and by 45% relative to 1990 levels in 2030. Emissions of criteria pollutants are also significantly reduced, as are petroleum imports by the US. Moreover, the policy package yields net savings for the US, equal to 19 billion dollars on an annual levelized basis through 2010, and results in 800,000 additional jobs nationwide by 2010. While the overall findings from the policy package analysis are robust, the results should be taken as indicative, rather than precisely predictive, owing to uncertainties in future costs, prices, technology performance and consumer behavior. 21 refs., 18 figs., 11 tabs.

  17. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  18. Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Judi

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain-on-snow events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgment that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information are available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient designs considering an uncertain climate future. This research demonstrates an approach for an integrated, multi-model, and multi-scale simulation to evaluate future flood impacts. This research used regional climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, USA. Using the proposed integrated modeling approach, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to the earlier winter season. Moreover, clear non-stationarities in future flood risk were discovered under various climate scenarios. This research provides a clear approach for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provides actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.

  19. Integrated assessment of water-power grid systems under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Betrie, G.

    2017-12-01

    Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. In this presentation, we are focusing on recent improvement in model development of thermoelectric power plant water use simulator, power grid operation and cost optimization model, and model integration that facilitate interaction among water and electricity generation under extreme climate events. A process based thermoelectric power water use simulator includes heat-balance, climate, and cooling system modules that account for power plant characteristics, fuel types, and cooling technology. The model is validated with more than 800 power plants of fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems. The power grid operation and cost optimization model was implemented for a selected regional in the Midwest. The case study will be demonstrated to evaluate the sensitivity and resilience of thermoelectricity generation and power grid under various climate and hydrologic extremes and potential economic consequences.

  20. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  1. Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Jasper F.; Ridley, David A.; Zhou, Qing; Miller, Ron L.; Zhao, Chun; Heald, Colette L.; Ward, Daniel S.; Albani, Samuel; Haustein, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.

  2. Climate-smart technologies. Integrating renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leal Filho, Walter; Mannke, Franziska; Schulte, Veronika [Hamburg Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany). Faculty of Life Sciences; Mohee, Romeela; Surroop, Dinesh (eds.) [Mauritius Univ., Reduit (Mauritius). Chemical and Environmental Engineering Dept.

    2013-11-01

    Explores the links between climate change and technologies. Relates to the links between renewable energy and climate change. Documents and promotes a collection of experiences from island nations. Has a strong international focus and value to developing countries. The book addresses the perceived need for a publication with looks at both, climate smart technologies and the integration of renewable energy and energy efficiency in mitigation and adaptation responses. Based on a set of papers submitted as part of the fifth on-line climate conference (CLIMATE 2012) and a major conference on renewable energy on island States held in Mauritius in 2012, the book provides a wealth of information on climate change strategies and the role of smart technologies. The book has been produced in the context of the project ''Small Developing Island Renewable Energy Knowledge and Technology Transfer Network'' (DIREKT), funded by the ACP Science and Technology Programme, an EU programme for cooperation between the European Union and the ACP region.

  3. Climate Change Adaptation Tools at the Community Level: An Integrated Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvis Modikela Nkoana

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The negative impacts of climate change are experienced at the global, regional and local levels. However, rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa face additional socio-political, cultural and economic challenges in addition to climate change. Decision support tools have been developed and applied to assist rural communities to cope with and adapt to climate change. However, poorly planned participatory processes and the lack of context-specific approaches in these tools are obstacles when aiming at strengthening the resilience of these rural communities. This paper uses an integrated literature review to identify best practices for involving rural communities in climate change adaptation efforts through the application of context-specific and culturally-sensitive climate change adaptation tools. These best practices include the use of a livelihoods approach to engage communities; the explicit acknowledgement of the local cultural do’s and don’ts; the recognition of local champions appointed from within the local community; the identification and prioritisation of vulnerable stakeholders; and the implementation of a two-way climate change risk communication instead of a one-sided information sharing approach.

  4. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  5. The mediating role of integration of safety by activity versus operator between organizational culture and safety climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auzoult, Laurent; Gangloff, Bernard

    2018-04-20

    In this study, we analyse the impact of the organizational culture and introduce a new variable, the integration of safety, which relates to the modalities for the implementation and adoption of safety in the work process, either through the activity or by the operator. One hundred and eighty employees replied to a questionnaire measuring the organizational climate, the safety climate and the integration of safety. We expected that implementation centred on the activity or on the operator would mediate the relationship between the organizational culture and the safety climate. The results support our assumptions. A regression analysis highlights the positive impact on the safety climate of organizational values of the 'rule' and 'support' type, as well as of integration by the operator and activity. Moreover, integration mediates the relation between these variables. The results suggest to take into account organizational culture and to introduce different implementation modalities to improve the safety climate.

  6. Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Martinez, Pamela P; Pascual, Mercedes

    2016-10-01

    Urbanization and climate change are the two major environmental challenges of the 21st century. The dramatic expansion of cities around the world creates new conditions for the spread, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. In particular, urban growth generates pronounced spatial heterogeneity within cities, which can modulate the effect of climate factors at local spatial scales in large urban environments. Importantly, the interaction between environmental forcing and socioeconomic heterogeneity at local scales remains an open area in infectious disease dynamics, especially for urban landscapes of the developing world. A quantitative and conceptual framework on urban health with a focus on infectious diseases would benefit from integrating aspects of climate forcing, population density, and level of wealth. In this paper, we review what is known about these drivers acting independently and jointly on urban infectious diseases; we then outline elements that are missing and would contribute to building such a framework. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  7. A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

    2009-04-01

    The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

  8. Towards strategic stakeholder management? Integrating perspectives on sustainability challenges such as corporate responses to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2007-01-01

    The strategic management of corporate sustainability tends to be approached from one theoretical perspective in academic research and publications in mainstream journals simultaneously. In corporate practice, however, a sustainability issue has different dimensions that cannot be captured if only one such lens is taken. The purpose of this article is to develop a more integrated perspective, embedded in a stakeholder view. This paper uses climate change as an example to illustrate how institutional, resource-based, supply chain and stakeholder views are all important to characterize and understand corporate strategic responses to one issue. This is subsequently linked to the climate strategies and related capabilities of companies, reckoning with societal and competitive contexts. Findings - What a corporate climate strategy looks like depends on the type of stakeholders that a company manages more proactively, which is in turn determined by the extent to which these stakeholders control critical resources. While empirical literature usually adopts a particular theoretical perspective, this article has attempted to develop a more integrative approach on corporate responses to climate change

  9. Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, K.

    2017-12-01

    Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

  10. In a Time of Change: Integrating the Arts and Humanities with Climate Change Science in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leigh, M.; Golux, S.; Franzen, K.

    2011-12-01

    The arts and humanities have a powerful capacity to create lines of communication between the public, policy and scientific spheres. A growing network of visual and performing artists, writers and scientists has been actively working together since 2007 to integrate scientific and artistic perspectives on climate change in interior Alaska. These efforts have involved field workshops and collaborative creative processes culminating in public performances and a visual art exhibit. The most recent multimedia event was entitled In a Time of Change: Envisioning the Future, and challenged artists and scientists to consider future scenarios of climate change. This event included a public performance featuring original theatre, modern dance, Alaska Native Dance, poetry and music that was presented concurrently with an art exhibit featuring original works by 24 Alaskan visual artists. A related effort targeted K12 students, through an early college course entitled Climate Change and Creative Expression, which was offered to high school students at a predominantly Alaska Native charter school and integrated climate change science, creative writing, theatre and dance. Our program at Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site is just one of many successful efforts to integrate arts and humanities with science within and beyond the NSF LTER Program. The efforts of various LTER sites to engage the arts and humanities with science, the public and policymakers have successfully generated excitement, facilitated mutual understanding, and promoted meaningful dialogue on issues facing science and society. The future outlook for integration of arts and humanities with science appears promising, with increasing interest from artists, scientists and scientific funding agencies.

  11. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, Johannes; Hers, Sebastiaan; Van der Zwaan, Bob

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

  12. Climate Change Science Teaching through Integration of Technology in Instruction and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriharan, S.; Ozbay, G.; Robinson, L.; Klimkowski, V.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation demonstrates the importance of collaborations between the institutions with common focus on offering the academic program on climate change science. Virginia State University (VSU) developed and established the course on climate change and adaptation, AGRI 350 for undergraduates, in cooperation with two HBCUs, Delaware State University (DSU) and Morgan State University (MSU). This program was developed to enhance the science curriculum with funding from the USDA NIFA. The hands-on research opportunities for students were supported by the NSF HBCU UP Supplement Grant at VSU. The technical guidance and lesson plans were available through the courtesy of the AMS and faculty/student team training at the NCAR. In the initial stages, the faculty members participated in faculty development workshops hosted by the AMS and NCAR. This contributed to trained faculty members developing the courses on Climate Change at VSU, DSU, and MSU. To create awareness of global climate change and exposure of students to international programs, seven students from VSU, MSU, and DSU participated in the Climate Change course (ENS 320) at the University of Sunshine Coast (USC), Australia. This international experience included faculty members in using SimCLIM for climate change data into decision-making with regard to potential changes to cropping systems and tree growth. The Climate Change program at VSU, DSU, and MSU is emerging into comprehensive academic program which includes use of case studies and exchange of students' reflections with their peers through discussion board and videoconferencing, hands-on research on water quality monitoring and mapping the study sites, and integration of geospatial technologies and i-Tree. In addition, the students' engagement in intensive research was conducted through hands-on experience with Scanning Electron Microscopy in the Marine Science Department, University of Hawaii at Hilo in summer 2015.

  13. Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

    2012-06-01

    Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated

  14. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  15. Integrating Scientific Content with Context to Connect Educators with the Complexities and Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, R.; Gosselin, D. C.; Oglesby, R. J.; Larson-Miller, C.; Thomas, J.; Mawalagedara, R.

    2011-12-01

    Over the past three years the Nebraska Earth Systems Education Network has designed professional development opportunities for K-12 and extension educators that integrates scientific content into the context of helping educators connect society with the complexities and consequences of climate change. Our professional development approach uses learner-, knowledge-, assessment-, and community-centered strategies to achieve our long-term goal: collaboration of scientists, educators and learners to foster civic literacy about climate change. Two NASA-funded projects, Global Climate Change Literacy for Educators (GCCE, 2009-2012), and the Educators Climatologists Learning Community (ECLC, 2011-2013), have provided the mechanism to provide teachers with scientifically sound and pedagogically relevant educational materials to improve climate and Earth systems literacy among educators. The primary product of the GCCE program is a 16-week, online, distance-delivered, asynchronous course entitled, Laboratory Earth: Human Dimensions of Climate Change. This course consists of four, four-week modules that integrate climate literacy, Earth Systems concepts, and pedagogy focused on active learning processes, building community, action research, and students' sense of place to promote action at the local level to address the challenges of climate change. Overall, the Community of Inquiry Survey (COI) indicated the course was effective in teaching content, developing a community of learners, and engaging students in experiences designed to develop content knowledge. A pre- and post- course Wilcoxan Signed Ranks Test indicated there was a statistically significant increase in participant's beliefs about their personal science teaching efficacy. Qualitative data from concept maps and content mastery assignments support a positive impact on teachers' content knowledge and classroom practice. Service Learning units seemed tohelp teachers connect course learning to their classroom

  16. Integrating Media Production By Students Into Climate Change Education: Within and Beyond the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Brisk, A. A.; Grogan, M.; Ledley, T. S.

    2012-12-01

    Through the Climate Education in an Age of Media (CAM) Project (http://cleanet.org/cced_media/), we have developed approaches to integrate media production by students into climate change education in ways that are engaging, empowering, and can be readily adopted in a wide range of instructional environments. These approaches can be used to overcome many of the challenges that climate change education presents and provide a means to evoke experiential, affective, and social learning pathways. Video production combines many key twenty-first century literacy skills, including content research, writing, an understanding of the power of images and sounds, the ability to use that power, and the ability to manipulate, transform, and distribute digital media. Through collaboration, reflection, and visual expression of concepts, video production facilitates a deeper understanding of material and, potentially, shifts in mental models about climate change. Equally importantly, it provides a means to bridge formal and informal learning by enabling students to educate those beyond the classroom. We have piloted our approach in two intensive summer programs (2011 and 2012) for high school students, during which students learned about climate change science content in lessons that were paired with the production of short media pieces including animations, public service announcements, person-on-the-street interviews, mock trailers, mock news programs, and music videos. Two high school teachers were embedded in the program during the second year, providing feedback and assessment of the feasibility, accessibility, and utility of the approach. The programs culminated with students presenting and discussing their work at public screening events. The media lessons and climate change science content examples used in these programs form the backbone of a toolkit and professional development workshops for middle and high school teachers, in which teachers learn how to incorporate

  17. Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2014-01-01

    Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

  18. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, M.; Binner, A.; Coombes, E.; Day, B.; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, C.; Hutchins, M.; Lovett, A.; Posen, P.

    2016-01-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...

  19. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  20. Essays on agricultural adaptation to climate change and ethanol market integration in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisabokhae, Ruth Ada

    Climate factors like precipitation and temperature, being closely intertwined with agriculture, make a changing climate a big concern for the entire human race and its basic survival. Adaptation to climate is a long-running characteristic of agriculture evidenced by the varying types and forms of agricultural enterprises associated with differing climatic conditions. Nevertheless climate change poses a substantial, additional adaptation challenge for agriculture. Mitigation encompasses efforts to reduce the current and future extent of climate change. Biofuels production, for instance, expands agriculture's role in climate change mitigation. This dissertation encompasses adaptation and mitigation strategies as a response to climate change in the U.S. by examining comprehensively scientific findings on agricultural adaptation to climate change; developing information on the costs and benefits of select adaptations to examine what adaptations are most desirable, for which society can further devote its resources; and studying how ethanol prices are interrelated across, and transmitted within the U.S., and the markets that play an important role in these dynamics. Quantitative analysis using the Forestry and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) shows adaptation to be highly beneficial to agriculture. On-farm varietal and other adaptations contributions outweigh a mix shift northwards significantly, implying progressive technical change and significant returns to adaptation research and investment focused on farm management and varietal adaptations could be quite beneficial over time. Northward shift of corn-acre weighted centroids observed indicates that substantial production potential may shift across regions with the possibility of less production in the South, and more in the North, and thereby, potential redistribution of income. Time series techniques employed to study ethanol price dynamics show that the markets studied are co-integrated and strongly

  1. A platform to integrate climate information and rural telemedicine in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, R.; Chadza, T.; Chirombo, J.; Fonda, C.; Muyepa, A.; Nkoloma, M.; Pietrosemoli, E.; Radicella, S. M.; Tompkins, A. M.; Zennaro, M.

    2012-04-01

    It is commonly accepted that climate plays a role in the transmission of many infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by mosquitoes such as malaria, which is one of the most important causes of mortality and morbidity in developing countries. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, lagged observed climate variables could provide some predictive lead for forecasting disease epidemics. This lead time could be extended by using forecasts of the climate in disease prediction models. This project aims to implement a platform for the dissemination of climate-driven disease risk forecasts, using a telemedicine approach. A pilot project has been established in Malawi, where a 162 km wireless link has been installed, spanning from Blantyre City to remote health facilities in the district of Mangochi in the Southern region, bordering Lake Malawi. This long Wi-Fi technology allows rural health facilities to upload real-time disease cases as they occur to an online health information system (DHIS2); a national medical database repository administered by the Ministry of Health. This technology provides a real-time data logging system for disease incidence monitoring and facilitates the flow of information between local and national levels. This platform allows statistical and dynamical disease prediction models to be rapidly updated with real-time climate and epidemiological information. This permits health authorities to target timely interventions ahead of an imminent increase in malaria incidence. By integrating meteorological and health information systems in a statistical-dynamical prediction model, we show that a long-distance Wi-Fi link is a practical and inexpensive means to enable the rapid analysis of real-time information in order to target disease prevention and control measures and mobilise resources at the local level.

  2. Energy savings due to daylight and artificial lighting integration in office buildings in hot climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Ashwal, Nagib T. [Sana' a University, Sana' a (Yemen); Budaiwi, Ismail M. [King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran (Saudi Arabia)

    2011-07-01

    Reducing energy consumption while maintaining acceptable environmental quality in buildings has been a challenging task for building professionals. In office buildings, artificial lighting systems are a major consumer of energy and can significantly contribute to building cooling load. Furthermore, although reliable, artificial lighting does not necessarily provide the required quality of lighting. Significant improvement in lighting quality and energy consumption can be achieved by proper integration of daylight and artificial lighting. The objective of this study is to investigate the energy performance of office buildings resulting from daylight and artificial lighting integration in hot climates. A parametric analysis is conducted to find the impact of different window design parameters, including window area, height and glazing type, on building energy performance. Results have shown that as much as 35% reduction in lighting energy consumption and 13% reduction in total energy consumption can be obtained when proper daylighting and artificial lighting integration is achieved.

  3. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

  4. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  5. Integrating sustainable development into the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najam, Adil; Rahman, Atiq A.; Huq, Saleemul; Sokona, Youba

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews how sustainable development was treated in prior assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and presents proposals on how it might be integrated into the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). There has been a steady, but slow, increase in the exposure and treatment of sustainable development in each subsequent IPCC assessment. However, much more remains to be done if the mandate provided in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be met. The paper argues that the AR4 can take three practical steps in making the integration more complete. First, at the conceptual level, equity concerns should be made a more pervasive, even central, focus of the AR4. Second, at the analytical level, the examination of alternative development pathways begun during the TAR process needs to be continued and expanded. Third, at the operational level, the AR4 should deal with sustainable development in all its chapters rather than relegating it to a peripheral few, should broaden the base of expertise reflected in its panels of authors and reviewers, and should commission a companion special report on climate change and sustainable development

  6. Health Impact of Climate Change in Older People: An Integrative Review and Implications for Nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyva, Erwin William A; Beaman, Adam; Davidson, Patricia M

    2017-11-01

    Older people account for the highest proportion of mortality from extreme weather events associated with climate change. This article aims to describe the health impacts of climate change on older people. An integrative review was conducted with 30 studies retrieved from PubMed, EBSCO, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) on climate stressors, determinants of resilient capacity, risk factors, and health outcomes. Heat, temperature variability, and air pollution increase mortality risk in older people, especially from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Floods are linked with increasing incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety. Facing these adversities, older people exhibit both vulnerability and resilience. Research gaps exist in understanding the full spectrum of the resilience experience of older people, and appreciating areas wherein nursing can play a pivotal role. Recognizing the vulnerabilities of older people in the context of climate change is important. Identifying opportunities to promote resilience is an important focus for nurses to develop tailored and targeted nursing interventions. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  7. Integrating climate forecasts and natural gas supply information into a natural gas purchasing decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changnon, David; Ritsche, Michael; Elyea, Karen; Shelton, Steve; Schramm, Kevin

    2000-09-01

    This paper illustrates a key lesson related to most uses of long-range climate forecast information, namely that effective weather-related decision-making requires understanding and integration of weather information with other, often complex factors. Northern Illinois University's heating plant manager and staff meteorologist, along with a group of meteorology students, worked together to assess different types of available information that could be used in an autumn natural gas purchasing decision. Weather information assessed included the impact of ENSO events on winters in northern Illinois and the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) long-range climate outlooks. Non-weather factors, such as the cost and available supplies of natural gas prior to the heating season, contribute to the complexity of the natural gas purchase decision. A decision tree was developed and it incorporated three parts: (a) natural gas supply levels, (b) the CPC long-lead climate outlooks for the region, and (c) an ENSO model developed for DeKalb. The results were used to decide in autumn whether to lock in a price or ride the market each winter. The decision tree was tested for the period 1995-99, and returned a cost-effective decision in three of the four winters.

  8. An Integrated Approach to Evaluate Urban Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiangsheng Hu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and accelerated urbanization have posed severe challenges to urban development, resulting in a growing series of climate and environmental problems that have a significant impact on industrial production and urban life. In a developing country such as China, more than 57% of the population lives in urban areas. It is vital for these cities to adapt to climate-induced risks. A better understanding of how to improve adaptive capacity could enhance the ability to achieve a desirable state when the city experiences stress. This paper used an integrated approach for evaluating the urban adaptive capacity to climate change. It developed the evaluation index system of urban adaptive capacity (UAC based on the driver–pressure–state–impact–response model (DPSIR, and adopted grey relational analysis (GRA and the entropy method to analyze the level of UAC in Changsha, the capital city of Hunan Province, from 2006 to 2015. The results revealed that the UAC of Changsha showed a significant increase from 2006 to 2015. Among the five first-grade indicators, the response dimension had the greatest influence on the improvement of UAC. The study may provide suggestions for adaptive capacity building and sustainable development in other urban areas.

  9. The Integration of Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, DemandResponse and Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Evaluatorsand Planners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vine, Edward

    2007-05-29

    This paper explores the feasibility of integrating energyefficiency program evaluation with the emerging need for the evaluationof programs from different "energy cultures" (demand response, renewableenergy, and climate change). The paper reviews key features andinformation needs of the energy cultures and critically reviews theopportunities and challenges associated with integrating these withenergy efficiency program evaluation. There is a need to integrate thedifferent policy arenas where energy efficiency, demand response, andclimate change programs are developed, and there are positive signs thatthis integration is starting to occur.

  10. Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, D. [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Wiehagen, J. [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate.

  11. Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas A J Graham

    Full Text Available Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.

  12. Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; McClanahan, Tim R; MacNeil, M Aaron; Wilson, Shaun K; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Jennings, Simon; Chabanet, Pascale; Clark, Susan; Spalding, Mark D; Letourneur, Yves; Bigot, Lionel; Galzin, René; Ohman, Marcus C; Garpe, Kajsa C; Edwards, Alasdair J; Sheppard, Charles R C

    2008-08-27

    Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.

  13. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  14. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of water alterations under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Molina, Jose Luis; Pulido Velazquez, Manuel; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the co-evolution and interrelations between natural and human pressures on water systems is required to ensure a sustainable management of resources under uncertain climate change conditions. To pursue multi-disciplinary research is therefore necessary to consider the multiplicity of stressors affecting water resources, take into account alternative perspectives (i.e. social, economic and environmental objective and priorities) and deal with uncertainty which characterize climate change scenarios. However, approaches commonly adopted in water quality assessment are predominantly mono-disciplinary, single-stressors oriented and apply concepts and models specific of different academic disciplines (e.g. physics, hydrology, ecology, sociology, economy) which, in fact, seldom shed their conceptual blinders failing to provide truly integrated results. In this context, the paper discusses the benefits and limits of adopting a multi-disciplinary approach where different knowledge domains collaborate and quantitative and qualitative information, coming from multiple conceptual and model-based research, are integrated in a harmonic manner. Specifically, Bayesian Networks are used as meta-modelling tool for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing hydrological models, climate change and land use projections, historical observations and expert opinion. The developed network allows to perform a stochastic multi-risk assessment considering the interlacing between climate (i.e. irregularities in water regime) and land use changes (i.e. agriculture, urbanization) and their cascading impacts on water quality parameters (i.e. nutrients loadings). Main objective of the model is the development of multi-risk scenarios to assess and communicate the probability of not meeting a "Good chemical water status" over future timeframe taking into account projected climatic and not climatic conditions. The outcomes are finally used to identify

  15. Fractionaly Integrated Flux model and Scaling Laws in Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, Daniel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2013-04-01

    The Fractionaly Integrated Flux model (FIF) has been extensively used to model intermittent observables, like the velocity field, by defining them with the help of a fractional integration of a conservative (i.e. strictly scale invariant) flux, such as the turbulent energy flux. It indeed corresponds to a well-defined modelling that yields the observed scaling laws. Generalised Scale Invariance (GSI) enables FIF to deal with anisotropic fractional integrations and has been rather successful to define and model a unique regime of scaling anisotropic turbulence up to planetary scales. This turbulence has an effective dimension of 23/9=2.55... instead of the classical hypothesised 2D and 3D turbulent regimes, respectively for large and small spatial scales. It therefore theoretically eliminates a non plausible "dimension transition" between these two regimes and the resulting requirement of a turbulent energy "mesoscale gap", whose empirical evidence has been brought more and more into question. More recently, GSI-FIF was used to analyse climate, therefore at much larger time scales. Indeed, the 23/9-dimensional regime necessarily breaks up at the outer spatial scales. The corresponding transition range, which can be called "macroweather", seems to have many interesting properties, e.g. it rather corresponds to a fractional differentiation in time with a roughly flat frequency spectrum. Furthermore, this transition yields the possibility to have at much larger time scales scaling space-time climate fluctuations with a much stronger scaling anisotropy between time and space. Lovejoy, S. and D. Schertzer (2013). The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades. Cambridge Press (in press). Schertzer, D. et al. (1997). Fractals 5(3): 427-471. Schertzer, D. and S. Lovejoy (2011). International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 21(12): 3417-3456.

  16. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  17. Air pollution policies in Europe: efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tollefsen, Petter; Rypdal, Kristin; Torvanger, Asbjorn; Rive, Nathan

    2009-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants cause damage to health and crops, but several air pollutants also have an effect on climate through radiative forcing. We investigate efficiency gains achieved by integrating climate impacts of air pollutants into air quality strategies for the EU region. The pollutants included in this study are SO 2 , NH 3 , VOC, CO, NO x , black carbon, organic carbon, PM 2.5 , and CH 4 . We illustrate the relative importance of climate change effects compared to damage to health and crops, as well as monetary gains of including climate change contributions. The analysis considers marginal abatement costs and compares air quality and climate damage in Euros. We optimize abatement policies with respect to both climate and health impacts, which imply implementing all measures that yield a net benefit. The efficiency gains of the integrated policy are in the order of 2.5 billion Euros, compared to optimal abatement based on health and crop damage only, justifying increased abatement efforts of close to 50%. Climate effect of methane is the single most important factor. If climate change is considered on a 20- instead of a 100-year time-scale, the efficiency gain almost doubles. Our results indicate that air pollution policies should be supplemented with climate damage considerations.

  18. A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Ohman, Mark D.

    2013-01-01

    Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems. PMID:23341628

  19. Does Integration Help Adapt to Climate Change? Case of Increased US Corn Yield Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.

    2012-12-01

    In absence of of new crop varieties or significant shifts in the geography of corn production, US national corn yields variation could double by the year 2040 as a result of climate change and without adaptation this could lead the variability in US corn prices to quadruple (Diffenbaugh et al. 2012). In addition to climate induced price changes, analysis of recent commodity price spikes suggests that interventionist trade policies are partly to blame. Assuming we cannot much influence the future climate outcome, what policies can we undertake to adapt better? Can we use markets to blunt this edge? Diffenbaugh et al. find that sale of corn- ethanol for use in liquid fuel, when governed by quotas such as US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), could make US corn prices even more variable; in contrast the same food-fuel market link (we refer to it as intersectoral link) may well dampen price volatility when the sale of corn to ethanol industry is driven by higher future oil prices. The latter however comes at the cost of exposing corn prices to the greater volatility in oil markets. Similarly intervention in corn trade can make US corn prices less or more volatile by distorting international corn price transmission. A negative US corn yield shock shows that domestic corn supply falls and domestic prices to go up irrespective of whether or not markets are integrated. How much the prices go up depends on how much demand adjusts to accommodate the supply shock. Based on the forgoing analysis, one should expect that demand would adjust more readily when markets are integrated and therefore reduce the resulting price fluctuation. Simulation results confirm this response of corn markets. In terms of relative comparisons however a policy driven intersectoral integration is least effective and prices rise much more. Similarly, a positive world oil price shock makes the US oil imports expensive and with oil being used to produce gasoline blends, it increases the price of gasoline

  20. Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south-southeastern Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Michael T; Marthews, Toby R; Costa, Marcos Heil; Galbraith, David R; Greenglass, Nora L; Imbuzeiro, Hewlley M A; Levine, Naomi M; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R; Muza, Michel Nobre; Powell, Thomas L; Saleska, Scott R; Solorzano, Luis A; Wang, Jingfeng

    2013-06-05

    A mosaic of protected areas, including indigenous lands, sustainable-use production forests and reserves and strictly protected forests is the cornerstone of conservation in the Amazon, with almost 50 per cent of the region now protected. However, recent research indicates that isolation from direct deforestation or degradation may not be sufficient to maintain the ecological integrity of Amazon forests over the next several decades. Large-scale changes in fire and drought regimes occurring as a result of deforestation and greenhouse gas increases may result in forest degradation, regardless of protected status. How severe or widespread these feedbacks will be is uncertain, but the arc of deforestation in south-southeastern Amazonia appears to be particularly vulnerable owing to high current deforestation rates and ecological sensitivity to climate change. Maintaining forest ecosystem integrity may require significant strengthening of forest conservation on private property, which can in part be accomplished by leveraging existing policy mechanisms.

  1. Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.

    2014-09-01

    Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate. Of primary interest is the influence of the ICF walls on developing an effective air sealing strategy and selecting an appropriate heating and cooling equipment type and capacity. The domestic water heating system is analyzed for costs and savings to investigate options for higher efficiency electric water heating. A method to ensure mechanical ventilation air flows is examined. The final solution package includes high-R mass walls, very low infiltration rates, multi-stage heat pump heating, solar thermal domestic hot water system, and energy recovery ventilation. This solution package can be used for homes to exceed 2012 International Energy Conservation Code requirements throughout all climate zones and achieves the DOE Challenge Home certification.

  2. Integrated Modelling on Flow and Water Quality Under the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    SHI, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on flooding in the UK, inducing more intense and prolonged storms. Frequent flooding due to climate change already exacerbates catchment water quality. Land use is another contributing factor to poor water quality. For example, the move to intensive farming could cause an increase in faecal coliforms entering the water courses. In an effort to understand better the effects on water quality from land use and climate change, the hydrological and estuarine processes are being modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), linked to a 2-D hydrodynamic model DIVAST(Depth Integrated Velocity and Solute Transport). The coupled model is able to quantify how much of each pollutant from the catchment reaches the harbour and the impact on water quality within the harbour. The work is focused on the transportation and decay of faecal coliforms from agricultural runoff into the rivers Frome and Piddle in the UK. The impact from the agricultural land use and activities on the catchment river hydrology and water quality are evaluated. The coupled model calibration and validation showed the good model performance on flow and faecal coliform in the watershed and estuary.

  3. Long Series of GNSS Integrated Precipitable Water as a Climate Change Indicator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kruczyk Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates information potential contained in tropospheric delay product for selected International GNSS Service (IGS stations in climatologic research. Long time series of daily averaged Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW can serve as climate indicator. The seasonal model of IPW change has been adjusted to the multi-year series (by the least square method. Author applied two modes: sinusoidal and composite (two or more oscillations. Even simple sinusoidal seasonal model (of daily IPW values series clearly represents diversity of world climates. Residuals in periods from 10 up to 17 years are searched for some long-term IPW trend – self-evident climate change indicator. Results are ambiguous: for some stations or periods IPW trends are quite clear, the following years (or the other station not visible. Method of fitting linear trend to IPW series does not influence considerably the value of linear trend. The results are mostly influenced by series length, completeness and data (e.g. meteorological quality. The longer and more homogenous IPW series, the better chance to estimate the magnitude of climatologic IPW changes.

  4. The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: Towards an integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rustad, Lindsey E.

    2008-01-01

    Accumulating evidence points to an anthropogenic 'fingerprint' on the global climate change that has occurred in the last century. Climate change has, and will continue to have, profound effects on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. As such, there is a critical need to continue to develop a sound scientific basis for national and international policies regulating carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reflects on the nature of current global change experiments, and provides recommendations for a unified multidisciplinary approach to future research in this dynamic field. These recommendations include: (1) better integration between experiments and models, and amongst experimental, monitoring, and space-for-time studies; (2) stable and increased support for long-term studies and multi-factor experiments; (3) explicit inclusion of biodiversity, disturbance, and extreme events in experiments and models; (4) consideration of timing vs intensity of global change factors in experiments and models; (5) evaluation of potential thresholds or ecosystem 'tipping points'; and (6) increased support for model-model and model-experiment comparisons. These recommendations, which reflect discussions within the TERACC international network of global change scientists, will facilitate the unraveling of the complex direct and indirect effects of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and their components

  5. Accounting for the risk of extreme outcomes in an integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerst, Michael D.; Howarth, Richard B.; Borsuk, Mark E.

    2010-01-01

    The potential for climate catastrophes, represented by 'fat-tailed' distributions on consequences, has attracted much attention recently. To date, however, most integrated assessment models have either been largely deterministic or deterministic with ex-post sensitivity analysis. The conclusions of such analyses are likely to differ from those employing models that accurately characterize society's joint preferences concerning time and risk, especially when distributions are fat-tailed. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted from Nordhaus's DICE model, we show that failing to accurately account for risk can lead to substantial underestimation of the net benefits of greenhouse gas abatement. A robust finding of our analysis is that a lenient 'policy ramp' emissions reduction strategy is preferable over a more aggressive strategy-such as that advocated by the Stern Review-only if the model does not account for uncertainty about the climate system, the carbon cycle and economic damages, and specifies a consumption discount rate that is counterfactually higher than the historical global weighted average cost of capital of 4.0%. In the debate over uncertainty and time discounting, our results imply that what matters most in climate change assessment is the inclusion and particular specification of uncertainty rather than the precise choice of discount rate.

  6. Climate, Land-, Energy-, Water-use simulations (CLEWs) in Mauritius - an integrated optimisation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfstad, Thomas; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Ramos, Eunice; Zepeda, Eduardo

    2016-04-01

    The Climate, Land, Energy and Water (CLEW) framework is a set of methodologies for integrated assessment of resource systems. It was developed to provide a means to simultaneously address matters pertaining to energy, water and food security. This is done while both considering the impact that the utilization of these resources have on our climate, as well as how our ability to continue using these resources could be impacted by climate change. CLEW is being applied in Mauritius to provide policy relevant analysis for sustainable development. The work aims to explore the interplay among the different elements of a national sustainable development strategy. A driving motivation is to address issues pertaining to policy cohesion, by exploring cross-sectoral impacts of individual policies and measures. The analysis explores how policies and actions intended to promote sustainability, have ramifications beyond the sector of the economy where it is applied. A primary concern is to ensure that efforts undertaken in pursuit of one policy goal do not inadvertently compromise progress towards attaining goals in other areas. Conversely there may be instances where an action has multiple benefits across various areas. Identifying such trade-offs and synergies can provide additional insights into development policy and support formulation of robust sustainable development strategies. The agreed sustainable development goals clearly illustrate the multi-faceted and multi-dimensional nature of the development challenge, with many overlapping and interlinked concerns. This work focuses on the link between food, energy, water and climate policy, which has shown to be particularly closely intertwined. In Mauritius, the highly interlinked and interdependent nature of the energy and sugar industries for example, highlights the need for coherent and integrated assessment of the role of these sectors in support of sustainable development in the country. Promoting energy self

  7. An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Dapeng; Zheng, Yi; Mao, Yixin; Zhang, Aijing; Wu, Bin; Li, Jinguo; Tian, Yong; Wu, Xin

    2018-02-01

    Water resources in coastal areas can be profoundly influenced by both climate change and human activities. These climatic and human impacts are usually intertwined and difficult to isolate. This study developed an integrated model-based approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts and applied this approach to the Luanhe Plain, a typical coastal area in northern China. An integrated surface water-groundwater model was developed for the study area using GSFLOW (coupled groundwater and surface-water flow). Model calibration and validation were performed for background years between 1975 and 2000. The variation in water resources between the 1980s and 1990s was then quantitatively attributed to climate variability, groundwater pumping and changes in upstream inflow. Climate scenarios for future years (2075-2100) were also developed by downscaling the projections in CMIP5. Potential water resource responses to climate change, as well as their uncertainty, were then investigated through integrated modeling. The study results demonstrated the feasibility and value of the integrated modeling-based analysis for water resource management in areas with complex surface water-groundwater interaction. Specific findings for the Luanhe Plain included the following: (1) During the historical period, upstream inflow had the most significant impact on river outflow to the sea, followed by climate variability, whereas groundwater pumping was the least influential. (2) The increase in groundwater pumping had a dominant influence on the decline in groundwater change, followed by climate variability. (3) Synergetic and counteractive effects among different impacting factors, while identified, were not significant, which implied that the interaction among different factors was not very strong in this case. (4) It is highly probable that future climate change will accelerate groundwater depletion in the study area, implying that strict regulations for groundwater

  8. Integrated waste management as a climate change stabilisation wedge for the Maltese islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falzon, Clyde; Fabri, Simon G; Frysinger, Steven

    2013-01-01

    The continuous increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions occurring since the Industrial Revolution is offering significant ecological challenges to Earth. These emissions are leading to climate changes which bring about extensive damage to communities, ecosystems and resources. The analysis in this article is focussed on the waste sector within the Maltese islands, which is the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the archipelago following the energy and transportation sectors. This work shows how integrated waste management, based on a life cycle assessment methodology, acts as an effective stabilisation wedge strategy for climate change. Ten different scenarios applicable to the Maltese municipal solid waste management sector are analysed. It is shown that the scenario that is most coherent with the stabilisation wedges strategy for the Maltese islands consists of 50% landfilling, 30% mechanical biological treatment and 20% recyclable waste export for recycling. It is calculated that 16.6 Mt less CO2-e gases would be emitted over 50 years by means of this integrated waste management stabilisation wedge when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. These scientific results provide evidence in support of policy development in Malta that is implemented through legislation, economic instruments and other applicable tools.

  9. How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha Duong, M.

    1998-04-01

    How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO 2 limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO 2 concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO 2 accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

  10. Adaptation to climate-induced regional water constraints in the Spanish energy sector: An integrated assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Zarrar; Linares, Pedro; García-González, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The energy sector depends on water in all phases of its life-cycle, including raw material extraction, power plant cooling, irrigation of biofuel crops and directly in hydropower generation. In the coming decades, several regions of the world are expected to experience a decrease in water resource availability, in part due to climate change. The dependence of the energy sector on water resources calls for an active effort to adapt to the possible scenarios. This paper presents a novel model that addresses the direct impacts of regional and temporal water shortages on energy operation and investment decisions. The paper investigates the costs and benefits of adapting the energy sector to climate-induced water scarcity. The results show that the increase in costs for an energy plan that considers future water stress is relatively small as compared to one which ignores it. A plan which ignores water constraints, however, may lead to significant economic damages when actually exposed to water shortages. The results also highlight the value of the availability of water for the energy sector, which is significantly higher than existing prices. The paper concludes that the potential benefits to be gained by integrating energy and water models can be considerable. - Highlights: • Spatial and temporal water constraints are added to an energy planning model. • Integrated water-energy planning can lead to significant savings in future water-stressed scenarios. • Actual value of water for the energy sector may be much higher than existing prices.

  11. Quantifying wetland–aquifer interactions in a humid subtropical climate region: An integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Sanchez, Itza; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Niu, Jie; Masoner, Jason R.; Cozzarelli, Isabelle M.; McGuire, Jennifer T.

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands are widely recognized as sentinels of global climate change. Long-term monitoring data combined with process-based modeling has the potential to shed light on key processes and how they change over time. This paper reports the development and application of a simple water balance model based on long-term climate, soil, vegetation and hydrological dynamics to quantify groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions at the Norman landfill research site in Oklahoma, USA. Our integrated approach involved model evaluation by means of the following independent measurements: (a) groundwater inflow calculation using stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen (16O, 18O, 1H, 2H); (b) seepage flux measurements in the wetland hyporheic sediment; and (c) pan evaporation measurements on land and in the wetland. The integrated approach was useful for identifying the dominant hydrological processes at the site, including recharge and subsurface flows. Simulated recharge compared well with estimates obtained using isotope methods from previous studies and allowed us to identify specific annual signatures of this important process during the period of study (1997–2007). Similarly, observations of groundwater inflow and outflow rates to and from the wetland using seepage meters and isotope methods were found to be in good agreement with simulation results. Results indicate that subsurface flow components in the system are seasonal and readily respond to rainfall events. The wetland water balance is dominated by local groundwater inputs and regional groundwater flow contributes little to the overall water balance.

  12. Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidumolu, U.B.; Lubbers, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Sreenivas, G.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can be used to identify appropriate risk management strategies and to reduce the sensitivity of rural industries and communities to climate risk. However, these forecasts have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making, unless translated into a

  13. Integrating Dendrochronology, Climate and Satellite Remote Sensing to Better Understand Savanna Landscape Dynamics in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Southworth

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the integration and potential uses of linkages between climate dynamics, savanna vegetation and landscape level processes within a highly vulnerable region, both in terms of climate variability and social systems. We explore the combined applications of two time-series methodologies: (1 climate signals detected in tree ring growth, from published literature, chronologies from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, and minimal preliminary field data; and (2 new primary production (NPP data of vegetation cover over time derived from remotely sensed analyses. Both time-series are related to the regional patterns of precipitation, the principle driver of plant growth in the area. The approach is temporally and spatially multiscalar and examines the relationships between vegetation cover, type and amount, and precipitation shifts. We review literature linking dendrochronology, climate, and remotely sensed imagery, and, in addition, provide unique preliminary analyses from a dry study site located on the outer limit of the Okavango Delta. The work demonstrates integration across the different data sources, to provide a more holistic view of landscape level processes occurring in the last 30-50 years. These results corroborate the water-limited nature of the region and the dominance of precipitation in controlling vegetation growth. We present this integrative analysis of vegetation and climate change, as a prospective approach to facilitate the development of long-term climate/vegetation change records across multiple scales.

  14. Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

  15. Optimal control and performance of photovoltachromic switchable glazing for building integration in temperate climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favoino, Fabio; Fiorito, Francesco; Cannavale, Alessandro; Ranzi, Gianluca; Overend, Mauro

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The features and properties of photovoltachromic switchable glazing are presented. • The different possible control strategies for the switchable glazing are presented. • Thermal and daylight performance are co-simulated for rule-based and optimal control. • A novel building performance simulation framework is developed for this aim. • Switchable glazing performance is compared for different controls and climates. - Abstract: The development of adaptive building envelope technologies, and particularly of switchable glazing, can make significant contributions to decarbonisation targets. It is therefore essential to quantify their effect on building energy use and indoor environmental quality when integrated into buildings. The evaluation of their performance presents new challenges when compared to conventional “static” building envelope systems, as they require design and control aspects to be evaluated together, which are also mutually interrelated across thermal and visual physical domains. This paper addresses these challenges by presenting a novel simulation framework for the performance evaluation of responsive building envelope technologies and, particularly, of switchable glazing. This is achieved by integrating a building energy simulation tool and a lighting simulation one, in a control optimisation framework to simulate advanced control of adaptive building envelopes. The performance of a photovoltachromic glazing is evaluated according to building energy use, Useful Daylight Illuminance, glare risk and load profile matching indicators for a sun oriented office building in different temperate climates. The original architecture of photovoltachromic cell provides an automatic control of its transparency as a function of incoming solar irradiance. However, to fully explore the building integration potential of photovoltachromic technology, different control strategies are evaluated, from passive and simple rule based controls, to

  16. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

    2008-12-01

    The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector

  17. Phylogenetic influences on leaf trait integration in Pelargonium (Geraniaceae): convergence, divergence, and historical adaptation to a rapidly changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Cynthia S; Martínez-Cabrera, Hugo I; Nicotra, Adrienne B; Mocko, Kerri; Marais, Elizabeth M; Schlichting, Carl D

    2013-07-01

    Trait integration may improve prediction of species and lineage responses to future climate change more than individual traits alone, particularly when analyses incorporate effects of phylogenetic relationships. The South African genus Pelargonium contains divergent major clades that have radiated along the same seasonal aridity gradient, presenting the opportunity to ask whether patterns of evolution in mean leaf trait values are achieved through the same set of coordinated changes among traits in each clade. Seven leaf traits were measured on field-collected leaves from one-third of the species (98) of the genus. Trait relationships were examined using phylogenetic regression within major clades. Disparity analysis determined whether the course of trait evolution paralleled historical climate change events. Divergence in mean trait values between sister clades A1 and A2 was consistent with expectations for leaves differing in longevity, despite strong similarity between clades in trait interactions. No traits in either clade exhibited significant relationships with multivariate climate axes, with one exception. Species in clades C and A2 included in this study occupied similar environments. These clades had similar values of individual trait means, except for δ(13)C, but they exhibited distinctive patterns of trait integration. Differing present-day patterns of trait integration are consistent with interpretations of adaptive responses to the prevailing climate at the time of each clade's origin. These differing patterns of integration are likely to exert strong effects on clade-level responses to future climate change in the winter rainfall region of South Africa.

  18. Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

    2018-01-01

    An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

  19. Overview of IMAGE 2.0. An integrated model of climate change and the global environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Battjes, C.; Van den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Krol, M.; Leemans, R.; Van Minnen, J.G.; Olivier, J.G.J.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Toet, A.M.C.; Van den Wijngaart, R.A.; Van der Woerd, H.J.; Zuidema, G.

    1995-01-01

    The IMAGE 2.0 model is a multi-disciplinary, integrated model, designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. In this paper the focus is on the scientific aspects of the model, while another paper in this volume emphasizes its political aspects. The objectives of IMAGE 2.0 are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the global system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to the year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5x0.5 latitude-longitude) to world political regions, depending on the sub-model. A total of 13 sub-models make up IMAGE 2.0, and they are organized into three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration it can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of carbon dioxide and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate current zonal average surface and vertical temperatures. 1 fig., 10 refs

  20. Architectural integration of energy solar collectors made with ceramic materials and suitable for the Mediterranean climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Roviras

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The work presented here aims to demonstrate the technical, architectural and energy viability of solar thermal collectors made with ceramic materials and the Mediterranean climate suitable for the production of domestic hot water (DHW and for heating systems in buildings. The design of a ceramic shell formed by panels collectors and panels no sensors, which are part of the same building system that is capable of responding to the basic requirements of a building envelope and capture solar energy is proposed. Ceramics considerably reduced the final cost of the sensor system and offers the new system a variety of compositional and chromatic since, with reduced performance compared to a conventional metallic collector, can occupy the entire surface of front and get a high degree of architectural integration. A tool for assessing the new ceramic solar collector has been defined from a multi-criteria perspective: economic, environmental and social. The tool enables the comparison of the ceramic solar collector with solar collectors on the market under different climatic and demand conditions.

  1. Integrated Management of Residential Indoor Air Quality: A Call for Stakeholders in a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levasseur, Marie-Eve; Poulin, Patrick; Campagna, Céline; Leclerc, Jean-Marc

    2017-11-25

    A paradigm change in the management of environmental health issues has been observed in recent years: instead of managing specific risks individually, a holistic vision of environmental problems would assure sustainable solutions. However, concrete actions that could help translate these recommendations into interventions are lacking. This review presents the relevance of using an integrated indoor air quality management approach to ensure occupant health and comfort. At the nexus of three basic concepts (reducing contaminants at the source, improving ventilation, and, when relevant, purifying the indoor air), this approach can help maintain and improve indoor air quality and limit exposure to several contaminants. Its application is particularly relevant in a climate change context since the evolving outdoor conditions have to be taken into account during building construction and renovation. The measures presented through this approach target public health players, building managers, owners, occupants, and professionals involved in building design, construction, renovation, and maintenance. The findings of this review will help the various stakeholders initiate a strategic reflection on the importance of indoor air quality and climate change issues for existing and future buildings. Several new avenues and recommendations are presented to set the path for future research activities.

  2. How Philadelphia is Integrating Climate Science and Policy: Changing Capital Planning Processes and Developing Flood-Depth Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhat, C.; Dix, B.; Choate, A.; Wong, A.; Asam, S.; Schultz, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    Policy makers can implement more effective climate change adaptation programs if they are provided with two tools: accessible information on the impacts that they need to prepare for, and clear guidance on how to integrate climate change considerations into their work. This presentation will highlight recent and ongoing efforts at the City of Philadelphia to integrate climate science into their decision-making. These efforts include developing a climate change information visualization tool, climate change risk assessments across the city, and processes to integrate climate change into routine planning and budgeting practices. The goal of these efforts is to make climate change science highly targeted to decision maker needs, non-political, easily accessible, and actionable. While sea level rise inundation maps have been available to communities for years, the maps do not effectively communicate how the design of a building or a piece of infrastructure would need to be modified to protect it. The Philadelphia Flood Risk Viewer is an interactive planning tool that allows Philadelphia to identify projected depths of flooding for any location within the City, for a variety of sea level rise and storm surge scenarios. Users can also determine whether a location is located in a FEMA floodplain. By having access to information on the projected depth of flooding at a given location, the City can determine what flood protection measures may be effective, or even inform the long-term viability of developing a particular area. With an understanding of climate vulnerabilities, cities have the opportunity to make smart, climate-resilient investments with their capital budgets that will yield multiple benefits for years to come. Few, however, have established protocols for doing so. Philadelphia, with support from ICF, developed a guidance document that identifies recommendations for integrating climate change considerations throughout the Capital Program and capital budgeting

  3. Climate change in the Cairns and Great Barrier Reef region. Scope and Focus for an Integrated Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crimp, S.; Balston, J.; Ash, A.; Anderson-Berry, L.; Done, T.; Greiner, R.; Hilbert, D.; Howden, M.; Jones, R.; Stokes, C.; Stoeckl, N.; Sutherst, B.; Whetton, P.

    2004-07-01

    This study was undertaken to determine the scope and focus for an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the Cairns Great Barrier Reef (CGBR) region. To achieve this, the authors employed both technical expertise and regional stakeholder input. This document describes the study objectives and the process used to meet these objectives, and provides an overview of the CGBR region, the views of technical experts on potential climate change impacts, stakeholder prioritisation of impacts and adaptation options, a list of perceived knowledge gaps, and a recommended structure for a future integrated assessment in the region. The aim of the study was to determine the scope and focus for an integrated regional assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the CGBR region. The key objectives of the study were: Define and describe the study region; Develop a process for the study, which includes key stakeholders in the region; Prepare a comprehensive list of the regional stakeholders; Brief regional stakeholders about potential climate changes in the region; Gain insight from stakeholders into the climatic dependencies of key sectors and issues in the region (agriculture, fishing, forestry, tourism, natural ecosystems, infrastructure, pests, diseases and human health); Identify possible adaptation and/or amelioration strategies for each sector; Identify synergies with other sectors, and possible barriers to undertaking climate change adaptation strategies; Identify knowledge gaps, research priorities and current activities that may need alteration or enhancement; Define the scope of a possible integrated assessment of climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for, the region

  4. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  5. Local climate policy in practice. Use of the playing field, impact of trends and the integration of climate care in municipal policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menkveld, M.; Burger, H.; Kaal, M.B.T.; Coenen, F.H.J.M.

    2001-10-01

    forces local governments to provide more explanation. The risk exists that more attention will be paid to the short-term quality of life issues instead of the long-term climate problems. In order to reinforce contributions from local governments to climate policy, a systematic integrative approach is needed. The ideal model focuses on formulating a so-called climate care system. Similar to quality and environment care systems, a systematic introduction of a (climate) interest in a broad field of activities and decisions are involved. We distinguish some necessary basic steps and elements. 138 refs

  6. Crop-Cattle Integrated Farming System: An Alternative of Climatic Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munandar

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available An integrated farming system is one of the alternatives for climatic change mitigation. This paper reports the application of corn-cattle based integrated farming system in Agrotechno Park Center of Palembang, and discusses its impact on CO2 fixation and the reduction of methane emissions. The study was based on the data of the first 6 yr from 2003 until 2009. The CO2 fixed in the soil and plants was determined based on the content of organic C which was multiplied by the index of 3.67. The methane gas produced by Balinese cattle and its dung was observed and modified into feed rations. The results showed that soil organic C increased from 40.80 tons C/ha in the 1st yr to 66.40 tons C/ha in the 6th yr. In addition, there was organic C fixation equivalent to 93.95 tons of CO2e. Corn biomass increased from 6.67 tons/ha to 18.66 tons/ha, equivalent to an increase in the fixation of atmospheric CO2e as much as 19.80 tons CO2e/ha. The supplementation of 60%-80% grass fodder with concentrate lowered the concentration of methane gas in cattle breathing by 28.7%, from 617 ppm to 440 ppm, while the methane emissions from cattle manure decreased by 31%, from 1367 mL/head/d to 943 mL/head/d. Installing a bio digester that generates biogas served to accommodate methane gas emissions from cattle dung and used it for bioenergy. Composting reduced the formation of methane gas from cattle manure through a regular process of turning over that gives aeration and forms aerobic condition in the heap of cattle dung. Recycling produces a variety of organic products that store carbon for a longer period of time and slowed the conversion of organic C into CO2. This study showed that the diverse activities of an integrated crop-cattle farming could be an alternative solution to climatic change mitigation.

  7. Climate policy and ancillary benefits. A survey and integration into the modelling of international negotiations on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pittel, Karen; Ruebbelke, Dirk T.G.

    2008-01-01

    Currently informal and formal international negotiations on climate change take place in an intensive way since the Kyoto Protocol expires already in 2012. A post-Kyoto regulation to combat global warming is not yet stipulated. Due to rapidly increasing greenhouse-gas emission levels, industrialized countries urge major polluters from the developing world like China and India to participate in a future agreement. Whether these developing countries will do so, depends on the prevailing incentives to participate in international climate protection efforts. This paper identifies ancillary benefits of climate policy to provide important incentives to attend a new international protocol and to positively affect the likelihood of accomplishing a post-Kyoto agreement which includes commitments of developing countries. (author)

  8. Integrating net-zero energy and high-performance green building technologies into contemporary housing in a cold climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin Yoklic; Mark Knaebe; Karen Martinson

    2010-01-01

    The objectives of this research project are (1) to show how the sustainable resources of forest biomass, solar energy, harvested rainwater, and small-diameter logs can be integrated to a system that provides most or all of the energy and water needs of a typical cold climate residential household, and (2) to effectively interpret the results and convey the sustainable...

  9. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot

  10. An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Mayerhofer, P.; Guardans, R.; Harmelen, T. van; Minnen, J. van; Onigkeit, J.; Posch, M.; Vries, B. de

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995

  11. Integrated modeling of water supply and demand under management options and climate change scenarios in Chifeng City, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu Hao; Ge Sun; Yongqiang Liu; Hong Qian

    2015-01-01

    Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various...

  12. Predicting Biological Information Flow in a Model Oxygen Minimum Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louca, S.; Hawley, A. K.; Katsev, S.; Beltran, M. T.; Bhatia, M. P.; Michiels, C.; Capelle, D.; Lavik, G.; Doebeli, M.; Crowe, S.; Hallam, S. J.

    2016-02-01

    Microbial activity drives marine biochemical fluxes and nutrient cycling at global scales. Geochemical measurements as well as molecular techniques such as metagenomics, metatranscriptomics and metaproteomics provide great insight into microbial activity. However, an integration of molecular and geochemical data into mechanistic biogeochemical models is still lacking. Recent work suggests that microbial metabolic pathways are, at the ecosystem level, strongly shaped by stoichiometric and energetic constraints. Hence, models rooted in fluxes of matter and energy may yield a holistic understanding of biogeochemistry. Furthermore, such pathway-centric models would allow a direct consolidation with meta'omic data. Here we present a pathway-centric biogeochemical model for the seasonal oxygen minimum zone in Saanich Inlet, a fjord off the coast of Vancouver Island. The model considers key dissimilatory nitrogen and sulfur fluxes, as well as the population dynamics of the genes that mediate them. By assuming a direct translation of biocatalyzed energy fluxes to biosynthesis rates, we make predictions about the distribution and activity of the corresponding genes. A comparison of the model to molecular measurements indicates that the model explains observed DNA, RNA, protein and cell depth profiles. This suggests that microbial activity in marine ecosystems such as oxygen minimum zones is well described by DNA abundance, which, in conjunction with geochemical constraints, determines pathway expression and process rates. Our work further demonstrates how meta'omic data can be mechanistically linked to environmental redox conditions and biogeochemical processes.

  13. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  14. Mapping New Terrain: Climate Change and America's West. Report of the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry F. CIRMOUNT Committee (Diaz; Constance I. Millar; Daniel R. Cayan; Michael D. Dettinger; Daniel B. Fagre; Lisa J. Graumlich; Greg Greenwood; Malcolm K. Hughes; David L. Peterson; Frank L. Powell; Kelly T. Redmond; Nathan L. Stephenson; Thomas W. Swetnam; Connie) Woodhouse

    2006-01-01

    Climate variability and sustained change presage far-reaching transformations across America’s West, an expanse dominated by immense mountain ranges and interspersed with important urban centers. These mountains provide the region’s life blood—water that courses through its streams and runs out its faucets, power that fuels its industries...

  15. The Assessment of Sustainability Indexes and Climate Change Impacts on Integrated Water Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel Hernández-Bedolla

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Integrated water resource management (IWRM is facing great challenges due to growing uncertainties caused by climate change (CC, rapid socio-economic and technological changes, and population growth. In the present study, we have developed different indices to assess the availability of water using an IWRM approach. These indices evaluate supply to demands, surface availability, groundwater availability, reservoirs, and environmental flow. Moreover, reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were determined. Sustainability index (SI and sustainability index by groups (SG were determined based on the five indices (all indices vary from 0 to 1. The impacts of climate change affect surface and groundwater availability, as do the agricultural, urban, and industrial requirements on the different supplies. We used the generalized AQUATOOL Decision Support System Shell (DSSS to evaluate the IWRM in the Rio Grande Basin (Morelia, México. Various emission scenarios from representative concentration pathways (RCPs were applied to the basin for the years 2015–2039 and 2075–2099. The results indicate increases in agricultural and urban demand, and decreases in surface runoff, as well as groundwater recharge. The proposed indices are useful for different approaches (decision-makers, water policy, and drought risks, among others. CC significantly affects the different proposed indices and indicates a decrease of the SI, SG1, and SG2 (i.e., less availability. For example, we found that SG2 decreased from 0.812 to 0.195 under the RCP 8.5 2075–2099 scenario, and SG2 equal to 0.252 and 0.326 for the RCP 6.0 2075–2099 and RCP 4.5 2070–2099 scenarios, respectively (values close to 0 indicate worst drought conditions.

  16. The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses - ICLEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Markus; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin; Blume, Theresa; Iclea Team

    2014-05-01

    The GFZ, Greifswald University and the Brandenburg University of Technology together with their partner the Polish Academy of Sciences strive for focusing their research capacities and expertise in a Helmholtz Virtual Institute for Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses (ICLEA). The Coordination Team is based at the GFZ in Potsdam and consists of a permanent scientific manager and administrative personnel. ICLEA offers young researchers an interdisciplinary and structured education and promote their early independence through coaching and mentoring. Postdoctoral rotation positions at the ICLEA partner institutions ensure mobility of young researchers and promote dissemination of information and expertise between disciplines. Training, Research and Analytical workshops between research partners of the ICLEA virtual institute are another important measure to qualify young researchers. The long-term mission of the Virtual Institute is to provide a substantiated data basis for sustained environmental maintenance based on a profound process understanding at all relevant time scales. Aim is to explore processes of climate and landscape evolution in an historical cultural landscape extending from northeastern Germany into northwestern Poland. The northern-central European lowlands will be facilitated as a natural laboratory providing an ideal case for utilizing a systematic and holistic approach. In ICLEA five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects. WP 1 focus on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analysing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 focus on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last centuries up to few millennia, varved lake sediments

  17. Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation with Urban planning for a Livable city in Tehran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojtaba Rafieian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts are seen within growing numbers of cities in low- and middle-income countries, so there is growing interest in the adaptation and mitigation plans and programs put forward by city authorities. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the constraints which cities face them in this subject by analyzing the case of Tehran. City has a commitment to decentralization, transparency, accountability and participation. There are some new programs and plansin urban planning which has evolved to include a broad vision of urban challenges and responses, a commitment to environmental sustainability and a strategic plan that has involved multiple stakeholders. This paper describes the principles for integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation with urban planning which can be useful for urban authorities. Then it analysesthe many measures implemented in Tehran over the last years, which provide a solid foundation for more systematically addressing adaptation. It also describes the significant challenges faced by the city’s administration, especially around funding, data and the challenge of responding to pressing and competing interests.Tehran city is still struggling to complete greenhouse gas inventories andit has, however, implemented several specific mitigation measures and tries continuously to place this issue on the government’s agenda.However, Tehran’s particular way of responding to current development challenges has put in place the flexibility, creativity and commitment needed for adaptation, regardless of whether this is made explicit or not. The results of this study reveal thatTehran’s policies have had continuity and consistency, despite being frequently revised over years, because each administration has built upon the progress of its predecessor. This is quite unusual; it is more common for there to be a revision of all that has been accomplished and for the need to point out the negative

  18. Development, Implementation, and Assessment of Climate Curricular Materials for Introductory Undergraduates: Lessons Learned from the InTeGrate Project's Climate of Change Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, B.; Fadem, C. M.; Shellito, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    Designing climate change curricular materials suitable for wide adoption across institutions and academic disciplines (including those outside of the geosciences) requires collaboration among faculty at different types of institutions and consideration of a variety of student populations, learning styles, and course formats. The Interdisciplinary Teaching of Geoscience for a Sustainable Future (InTeGrate) project, an NSF STEP Center program, provides opportunities for faculty to develop 2-3 week teaching modules to engage students in understanding the intersections between geoscience topics and societal issues. From 2012-2014, a team of 3 faculty from a liberal arts college, comprehensive university, and community college developed, implemented, assessed, and revised a 2-3 week module for introductory undergraduates entitled "Climate of change: interactions and feedbacks between water, air, and ice". The module uses authentic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere data from several regions to illustrate how climate impacts human societies and that the climate system has interacting components complicated by feedbacks, uncertainties, and human behavioral decisions. Students also consider past and present human adaptations to climate fluctuations. The module was piloted in introductory geology, meteorology, and oceanography courses during the 2012-2013 academic year, during which time formative and summative assessments were administered and used to modify the curricular materials. We will provide an overview of the module's content, instructional strategies involved in implementing the module, and methods of formative and summative assessment. We will also report on lessons learned during the development, piloting, revision, and publishing process, the importance of fostering partnerships between faculty from different institution types, and design approaches that promote widespread adoption of climate curricular materials.

  19. Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

  20. Assessing state efforts to integrate transportation, land use and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat to life on earth. Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further : warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, perv...

  1. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

  2. The NASA Global Climate Change Education Project: An Integrated Effort to Improve the Teaching and Learning about Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.; Welch, S.; Spruill, K.; Matthews, M. J.; Person, C.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Project, initiated in 2008, seeks to: - improve the teaching and learning about global climate change in elementary and secondary schools, on college campuses, and through lifelong learning; - increase the number of people, particularly high school and undergraduate students, using NASA Earth observation data, Earth system models, and/or simulations to investigate and analyze global climate change issues; - increase the number of undergraduate students prepared for employment and/or to enter graduate school in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Through an annual solicitation, proposals are requested for projects that address these goals using a variety of approaches. These include using NASA Earth system data, interactive models and/or simulations; providing research experiences for undergraduate or community college students, or for pre- or in-service teachers; or creating long-term teacher professional development experiences. To date, 57 projects have been funded to pursue these goals (22 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and 17 in 2010), each for a 2-3 year period. The vast majority of awards address either teacher professional development, or use of data, models, or simulations; only 7 awards have been made for research experiences. NASA, with assistance from the Virginia Space Grant Consortium, is working to develop these awardees into a synergistic community that works together to maximize its impact. This paper will present examples of collaborations that are evolving within this developing community. It will also introduce the opportunities available in fiscal year 2011, when a change in emphasis is expected for the project as it moves within the NASA Office of Education Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP).

  3. Evaluating the use of an integrated approach to support energy and climate policy formulation and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bassi, A. M. [Millennium Institute, 2111 Wilson Blvd, Suite 700, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States)

    2010-09-15

    With the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 national leaders have started investigating options for reducing carbon emissions within national borders. Despite confronting similar energy issues, every country that adopted the Kyoto Protocol has a unique energy strategy - being characterized by a different context, social, economic or environmental that influences the way different nations deal with climate change and other energy-related issues. Finding that currently available energy models are often too detailed or narrowly focused to inform longer-term policy formulation and evaluation holistically, the present study proposes the utilization of an integrated cross-sectoral medium to longer-term research and modeling approach, incorporating various methodologies to minimize exogenous assumptions and endogenously represent the key drivers of the system analyzed. The framework proposed includes feedback, delays and non-linearity and focuses on structure, scenarios and policies, requires a profound customization of the model that goes beyond a new parameterization. The inclusion of social and environmental factors, in addition to economic ones, all unique to the geographical area analyzed, allows for a wider analysis of the implication of policies by identifying potential side effect or longer-term bottlenecks for socio-economic development and environmental preservation arising from cross-sectoral relations. (author)

  4. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  5. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  6. Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamon, L.; Dalla Valle, M.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed. Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies. Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management. - Climate change implications on POPs are addressed here with special attention to monitoring, modelling and regulation issues.

  7. Sustainable hydrogen from bio-oil - Catalytic steam reforming of acetic acid as a model oxygenate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takanabe, Kazuhiro; Seshan, K.; Lefferts, Leon; Aika, Ken-ichi

    2004-01-01

    Steam reforming of acetic acid as a model oxygenate present in bio-oil over Pt/ZrO2 catalysts has been studied. Pt/ZrO2 catalysts are very active, completely converting acetic acid and give hydrogen yield close to thermodynamic equilibrium. The catalyst deactivated by formation of oligomers, which

  8. Sustainable hydrogen from bio-oil - Catalytic steam reforming of acetic acid as a model oxygenate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takanabe, Kazuhiro; Aika, Ken-ichi; Seshan, K.; Lefferts, Leon

    Studies were conducted with acetic acid (HAc) as model oxygenate for the design of active and stable catalysts for steam reforming of bio-oil. Pt/ZrO2 catalysts were prepared by wet impregnation technique. The Pt/ZrO2 catalysts showed high activities at initial time on stream, but lost its activity

  9. Integrated assessment of global climate change with learning-by-doing and energy-related research and development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller-Fuerstenberger, Georg; Stephan, Gunter

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a small-scale version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of global climate change, which is based on a global, regionally differentiated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with endogenous technological change. This model can be viewed as a basic framework for analyzing a broad range of economic issues related to climate change, in particular since technological change is represented in two ways: on the one hand, there is learning-by-doing (LbD) in non-fossil energy supply technologies, and on the other hand there is research and development (R and D)-driven energy-saving technical progress in production. Computational experiments are added for illustrating the role of technological innovation in a world both with and without cooperation in the solution of the global climate problem

  10. The MIT Integrated Global System Model: A facility for Assessing and Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.

    2013-12-01

    The world is facing major challenges that create tensions between human development and environmental sustenance. In facing these challenges, computer models are invaluable tools for addressing the need for probabilistic approaches to forecasting. To illustrate this, I use the MIT Integrated Global System Model framework (IGSM; http://globalchange.mit.edu ). The IGSM consists of a set of coupled sub-models of global economic and technological development and resultant emissions, and physical, dynamical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, land, ocean and ecosystems (natural and managed). Some of the sub-models have both complex and simplified versions available, with the choice of which version to use being guided by the questions being addressed. Some sub-models (e.g.urban air pollution) are reduced forms of complex ones created by probabilistic collocation with polynomial chaos bases. Given the significant uncertainties in the model components, it is highly desirable that forecasts be probabilistic. We achieve this by running 400-member ensembles (Latin hypercube sampling) with different choices for key uncertain variables and processes within the human and natural system model components (pdfs of inputs estimated by model-observation comparisons, literature surveys, or expert elicitation). The IGSM has recently been used for probabilistic forecasts of climate, each using 400-member ensembles: one ensemble assumes no explicit climate mitigation policy and others assume increasingly stringent policies involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels. These forecasts indicate clearly that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The value of such probability analyses for policy decision-making lies in their ability to compare relative (not just absolute) risks of various policies, which are less affected by the earth system model uncertainties. Given the uncertainties in forecasts, it is also clear that

  11. A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keune, Hans; Ludlow, David; van den Hazel, Peter; Randall, Scott; Bartonova, Alena

    2012-06-28

    The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection

  12. Integrating chemistry into 3D climate models: Detailed kinetics in the troposphere and stratosphere of a global climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, C.Y.J.; Elliott, S. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Earth and Environmental Sciences Div.; Turco, R.P.; Zhao, X. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    1997-11-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The motivation for the project is to create the first complete, three-dimensional climate model that enfolds atmospheric photochemistry. The LANL chemical global climate model (GCM) not only distributes the trace greenhouse gases and modifies their concentrations within the detailed photochemical web, but also permits them to influence the radiation field and so force their own transport. Both atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics are nonlinear and zonally asymmetric phenomena. They can only be adequately modeled in three dimensions on the global grid. The kinetics-augmented GCM is the only program within the atmospheric community capable of investigating interaction involving chemistry and transport. The authors have conducted case studies of timely three-dimensional chemistry issues. Examples include ozone production from biomass burning plumes, kinetic feedbacks in zonally asymmetric transport phenomena with month- to year-long time scales, and volcano sulfate aerosols with respect to their potential effects on tropospheric ozone depletion.

  13. An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

  14. A Review of the Integrated Effects of Changing Climate, Land Use, and Dams on Mekong River Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadu Pokhrel

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing and proposed construction of large-scale hydropower dams in the Mekong river basin is a subject of intense debate and growing international concern due to the unprecedented and potentially irreversible impacts these dams are likely to have on the hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the basin. Studies have shown that some of the dams built in the tributaries and the main stem of the upper Mekong have already caused basin-wide impacts by altering the magnitude and seasonality of flows, blocking sediment transport, affecting fisheries and livelihoods of downstream inhabitants, and changing the flood pulse to the Tonle Sap Lake. There are hundreds of additional dams planned for the near future that would result in further changes, potentially causing permanent damage to the highly productive agricultural systems and fisheries, as well as the riverine and floodplain ecosystems. Several studies have examined the potential impacts of existing and planned dams but the integrated effects of the dams when combined with the adverse hydrologic consequences of climate change remain largely unknown. Here, we provide a detailed review of the existing literature on the changes in climate, land use, and dam construction and the resulting impacts on hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the Mekong. The review provides a basis to better understand the effects of climate change and accelerating human water management activities on the coupled hydrological-agricultural-ecological systems, and identifies existing challenges to study the region’s Water, Energy, and Food (WEF nexus with emphasis on the influence of future dams and projected climate change. In the last section, we synthesize the results and highlight the urgent need to develop integrated models to holistically study the coupled natural-human systems across the basin that account for the impacts of climate change and water infrastructure development

  15. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  16. Using an Integrated Approach to Supporting Climate Change Literacy for Pre-Service Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, H. R.; Mattox, S.; Llerandi-Román, P. A.; Dobson, C.

    2014-12-01

    Educating future Americans has long been a debate; with the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) now being adopted, climate literacy has become a more dominant discussion in both the classroom and in our society where climate education has often been non-existent or dismal at best. With these new education standards climate literacy is now fundamental to science education, this means understanding climate needs to begin with those headed into the classroom with these future Americans. These educators are expected to be skilled and confident in all subject areas, including science, where they might receive less training. To address this challenge, we have focused on an interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy, which is facilitated through cross-cutting concepts in both Earth and life sciences and parallels NGSS standards. We used the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication to gauge our student's strengths and weaknesses and compare them to the general public's understanding of climate change and complex Earth processes, such as beliefs about climate change, understanding the greenhouse effect, weather versus climate, climate change past and present, impacts and solutions. After a semester of this interdisciplinary course our students felt 95% confident that they are informed about global climate change as compared to 62% of Americans that were surveyed. Our students could define and describe greenhouse effect and 82% of them could classify greenhouse gases as compared to 66% and 45% of Americans respectively. While these non-science, education students were generally more knowledgeable about climate change, the areas where they did not significantly outperform the general public allowed us to refocus our course to aid them in understanding this complex issue where our hopes are that they will be prepared to teach science in their future classroom which will allow their students to be competitive in today's rapidly evolving global economy.

  17. Ecosystem-Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Caribbean Small Island Developing States: Integrating Local and External Knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiina Kurvits

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS are vulnerable to climate change impacts including sea level rise, invasive species, ocean acidification, changes in rainfall patterns, increased temperatures, and changing hazard regimes including hurricanes, floods and drought. Given high dependencies in Caribbean SIDS on natural resources for livelihoods, a focus on ecosystems and their interaction with people is essential for climate change adaptation. Increasingly, ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA approaches are being highlighted as an approach to address climate change impacts. Specifically, EbA encourages the use of local and external knowledge about ecosystems to identify climate change adaptation approaches. This paper critically reviews EbA in Caribbean SIDS, focusing on the need to integrate local and external knowledge. An analysis of current EbA in the Caribbean is undertaken alongside a review of methodologies used to integrate local and external expertise for EbA. Finally key gaps, lessons learnt and suggested ways forward for EbA in Caribbean SIDS and potentially further afield are identified.

  18. Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

    2012-01-01

    Background Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human. PMID:23273248

  19. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Producing an integrated climate-land-energy-water (CLEW) model for glaciated regions in the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delman, E. M.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Growing concern over the impact of climate change on global freshwater resources has spurred a demand for practical, basin-specific adaptation tools. The potential for water stress is particularly inflated in the glaciated watersheds of the developing world; widespread and rapid glacial retreat has forced regional resource managers to reconcile the reality of a diminishing supply with an overall increase in demand, while accounting for the underlying geopolitical and cultural context. An integrated approach, such as the development of a Climate-Land-Energy-Water (CLEW) model that examines relationships among climate, land-use, and the energy and water sectors, can be used to assess the impact of different climate change scenarios on basin sustainability and vulnerability. This study will first constrain the hydrologic budget in the Río Santa Watershed of Peru using satellite imagery, historical and contemporary stream discharge data, hydrologic modeling, climatic data analysis, and isotopic and chemical tracers. Ultimately, glacier retreat will be examined at the watershed scale and be used as an input in the CLEW model framework to assess hydrologic budget scenarios and the subsequent impact on regional economic and environmental sustainability.

  1. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandlikar, Milind [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

  2. Integrating psychosocial safety climate in the JD-R model: A study amongst Malaysian workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd A. Idris

    2011-05-01

    Research purpose: We expanded the Job Demands and Resources (JD-R model by proposing psychosocial safety climate (PSC as a precursor to job demands and job resources. As PSC theoretically influences the working environment, the study hypothesized that PSC has an impact on performance via both health erosion (i.e. burnout and motivational pathways (i.e. work engagement. Motivation for the study: So far, integration of PSC in the JD-R model is only tested in a Western context (i.e. Australia. We tested the emerging construct of PSC in Malaysia, an Eastern developing country in the Asian region. Research design, approach and method: A random population based sample was derived using household maps provided by Department of Statistics, Malaysia; 291 employees (response rate 50.52% from the State of Selangor, Malaysia participated. Cross-sectional data were analysed using structural equation modelling. Main findings: We found that PSC was negatively related to job demands and positively related to job resources. Job demands, in turn, predicted burnout (i.e. exhaustion and cynicism, whereas job resources predicted engagement. Both burnout and engagement were associated with performance. Bootstrapping showed significant indirect effects of PSC on burnout via job demands, PSC on performance via burnout and PSC on performance via the resources-engagement pathway. Practical/managerial implications: Our findings are consistent with previous research that suggests that PSC should be a target to improve working conditions and in turn reduce burnout and improve engagement and productivity. Contribution/value-add: These findings suggest that JD-R theory may be expanded to include PSC as an antecedent and that the expanded JD-R model is largely valid in an Eastern, developing economy setting.

  3. A Faculty Workshop Model to Integrate Climate Change across the Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teranes, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Much of the growing scientific certainty of human impacts on the climate system, and the implications of these impacts on current and future generations, have been discovered and documented in research labs in colleges and universities across the country. Often these institutions also take decisive action towards combatting climate change, by making significant reductions in greenhouse emissions and pledging to greater future reductions. Yet, there are still far too many students that graduate from these campuses without an adequate understanding of how climate change will impact them within their lifetimes and without adequate workforce preparation to implement solutions. It may be that where college and universities still have the largest influence on climate change adaption and mitigation is in the way that we educate students. Here I present a curriculum workshop model at UC San Diego that leverages faculty expertise to infuse climate change education across disciplines to enhance UC San Diego students' climate literacy, particularly for those students whose major focus is not in the geosciences. In this model, twenty faculty from a breadth of disciplines, including social sciences, humanities, arts, education, and natural sciences participated in workshops and developed curricula to infuse aspects of climate change into their existing undergraduate courses. We particularly encouraged development of climate change modules in courses in the humanities, social sciences and arts that are best positioned to address the important human and social dimensions of climate change. In this way, climate change content becomes embedded in current course offerings, including non-science courses, to increase climate literacy among a greater number and a broader cross-section of students.

  4. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and

  5. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Munaretto, S.; Siciliano, G.; Turvani, M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate

  6. Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex C. Ruane

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  7. Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce

  8. Integrating climate-smart rice agriculture into secondary-level curriculum: lessons from three high schools in the Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manalo, Jaime A; Balmeo, Katherine P; Berto, Jayson C; Saludez, Fredierick M; Villaflor, Jennifer D; Pagdanganan, Argie M

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (CC) is an urgent and highly relevant topic that must be integrated into the school curriculum. Literature on CC integration, however, is scarce, let alone literature on integrating climate-smart rice agriculture (CSRA). Bringing CSRA lessons into the classroom means the chance is higher that climate-smart technologies on rice will reach even the most far-flung areas of the Philippines, which stand to be among the most vulnerable as regards the negative impacts of CC. This paper shares experiences drawn from three high schools in the Philippines on integrating CSRA into their curriculum. The research centers on appropriate teaching tools/strategies, push and exogenous factors in CSRA integration, and the types of information that are likely to be shared by the students with their farmer-parents or other farmers in their communities. Surveys among participating students (n = 155) and three focus group discussions among key school officials were conducted. Different teaching methods and/or tools were found to be generally useful in various contexts. Photos and videos, however, emerged as the most effective tools across sites. The livelihood source of the students does have a bearing on the complexity of messages that they can convey. Students from rice-farming households can competently discuss even highly complex adaptation and mitigation information with their farmer-parents or other farmers. Thorough message-framing is necessary to maximize student involvement as well as to increase production of education-entertainment (edutainment) materials to be utilized in teaching. This study, in general, contributes to CC education by bringing in best-fit practices in teaching tools and strategies to mobilize students to act on urgent matters relating to the impacts of CC. It also advises on considering exogenous factors that might affect CC education by taking into account those that are equally capable of shaping students' perception and knowledge.

  9. Can integrative catchment management mitigate future water quality issues caused by climate change and socio-economic development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honti, Mark; Schuwirth, Nele; Rieckermann, Jörg; Stamm, Christian

    2017-03-01

    The design and evaluation of solutions for integrated surface water quality management requires an integrated modelling approach. Integrated models have to be comprehensive enough to cover the aspects relevant for management decisions, allowing for mapping of larger-scale processes such as climate change to the regional and local contexts. Besides this, models have to be sufficiently simple and fast to apply proper methods of uncertainty analysis, covering model structure deficits and error propagation through the chain of sub-models. Here, we present a new integrated catchment model satisfying both conditions. The conceptual iWaQa model was developed to support the integrated management of small streams. It can be used to predict traditional water quality parameters, such as nutrients and a wide set of organic micropollutants (plant and material protection products), by considering all major pollutant pathways in urban and agricultural environments. Due to its simplicity, the model allows for a full, propagative analysis of predictive uncertainty, including certain structural and input errors. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by predicting future surface water quality in a small catchment with mixed land use in the Swiss Plateau. We consider climate change, population growth or decline, socio-economic development, and the implementation of management strategies to tackle urban and agricultural point and non-point sources of pollution. Our results indicate that input and model structure uncertainties are the most influential factors for certain water quality parameters. In these cases model uncertainty is already high for present conditions. Nevertheless, accounting for today's uncertainty makes management fairly robust to the foreseen range of potential changes in the next decades. The assessment of total predictive uncertainty allows for selecting management strategies that show small sensitivity to poorly known boundary conditions. The identification

  10. AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

  11. Functional integrity of freshwater forested wetlands, hydrologic alteration, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.; Souter, Nicholas J.;

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will challenge managers to balance the freshwater needs of humans and wetlands. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that most regions of the world will be exposed to higher temperatures, CO2, and more erratic precipitation, with some regions likely to have alternating episodes of intense flooding and mega-drought. Coastal areas will be exposed to more frequent saltwater inundation as sea levels rise. Local land managers desperately need intra-regional climate information for site-specific planning, management, and restoration activities. Managers will be challenged to deliver freshwater to floodplains during climate change-induced drought, particularly within hydrologically altered and developed landscapes. Assessment of forest health, both by field and remote sensing techniques, will be essential to signal the need for hydrologic remediation. Studies of the utility of the release of freshwater to remediate stressed forested floodplains along the Murray and Mississippi Rivers suggest that brief episodes of freshwater remediation for trees can have positive health benefits for these forests. The challenges of climate change in forests of the developing world will be considered using the Tonle Sap of Cambodia as an example. With little ecological knowledge of the impacts, managing climate change will add to environmental problems already faced in the developing world with new river engineering projects. These emerging approaches to remediate stressed trees will be of utmost importance for managing worldwide floodplain forests with predicted climate changes.

  12. The Practical Integration of Action Research into Building Climate Literacy and Partnership with Key Influentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been using an action research approach to build climate literacy and partnership with key influential (KI) leaders in the San Diego community. After identifying 6 key sectors that either (a) could reduce green house gas emissions and adapt to impacts, or (b) would be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, we conducted 89 interviews with KIs from the San Diego region -- including elected officials, academics, laborers, and representatives from local businesses, non-profits, ethnic and cultural communities, faith-based groups, and special interest groups -- to assess their science knowledge and opinions about climate change and the impacts of climate change. Other questions asked were about KIs' personal efficacy, identity, values and engagement in pro-environmental behaviors related to climate change. The results of the interviews contributed to CEP's action research approach in two ways: 1) it provided critical data regarding which leaders wanted further engagement with CEP and what that engagement should entail (e.g., being a connector to other leaders, a spokesperson, or a participant in future educational activities), and 2) it provided key information about the extent to which "knowledge deficit" is related to use of climate change knowledge to inform engagement in mitigation and adaptive behaviors. Practically, the results were used to create a database that is being used to inform the contact and education of KIs. We were able to show, consistent with previous research and identity theory, that liberal leaders were more likely than conservatives to believe in, feel concern for, and be knowledgeable about climate change. However, engagement in mitigation behaviors- specifically making decisions that would reduce electricity, gas, or water use- were similar for both groups. These results are being used to create resources and direct climate education activities going forward.

  13. A climate game based on a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, M.; Hasselmann, K.

    2003-04-01

    In November 2002 a special exhibition on climate issues opened in the German Museum for Science and Techniques ('Deutsches Museum') in Munich. Within this exposition we present an interactive game in which visitors control future climate policy by adopting the role of either the government, a CEO (Chief Executive Officer) of a global company or a typical private household of an industrialized country. The players endeavor to maintain a sustainable climate in the future (global goal) while pursuing their own individual welfare goals. Task of the exhibition visitor is to combine the personal interests of the actor he is adopting with the global goal. The individual goal of government is maintain economic growth while avoiding conflicts due to inter-regional or societal inequalities. The CEO seeks to maximize total profits (business earnings). The goal of households is to maximize wages and interest earnings. The evolution of the economic system and climate is governed by the decisions of the actors. Government sets economic side conditions in terms of carbon taxes, subsidies for R&D or market infusion support for climate-friendly technologies, and transfers development aid to less advanced regions. The CEOs decide how much to invest in a number of alternative investment options and in which region. Households influences the economy by their purchasing and savings decisions. The model considers four regions, three real actors (mentioned above) and two different goods (climate-adverse and a climate-friendly). We introduce four different kinds of energy (coal, oil/gas, nuclear, renewable). A World Bank handles money flows. At different points in time the actors can cooperate with other actors in order to reach the global goal Stochastic elements regarding future technology and future climate are included. A touch-screen monitor with user friendly interface is used to present animations and videos. An animated climate scientist uses a climate simulator to compute future

  14. Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Final Report, Version 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing developmen...

  15. The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Biewald, Anne; Pehl, Michaja; Bonsch, Markus; Baumstark, Lavinia; Klein, David; Popp, Alexander; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Climate change mitigation, in the context of growing population and ever increasing economic activity, will require a transformation of energy and agricultural systems, posing significant challenges to global water resources. We use an integrated modelling framework of the

  16. Critical Studies on Integrating Land-Use Induced Effects on Climate Regulation Services into Impact Assessment for Human Well-Being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihui Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It is commonly acknowledged that land use changes (LUC and climate changes have exerted significant effects on ecosystem services which are essential and vital to human well-being. Among all the services provided by ecosystem, climate regulation services are relatively sensitive to LUC and climate changes. This study aims to comprehensively review studies on the complex effects of LUC and climate changes on climate regulation services and further integrates the effects on climate regulation services into impact assessment for human well-being. In this study, we firstly introduced research efforts in which the drivers of and their corresponding effects on climate regulation services are briefly identified. Then, we explicitly reviewed the researches on the effects of LUC and climate changes on climate regulation services, especially focused on the certain methods and models used to quantify the effects on the major drivers of climate regulation services. After that, the effects of LUC and climate changes on human well-being via climate regulation services were revisited and commented accordingly. Finally, this paper discussed the current research gaps and proposed some research prospects in future studies.

  17. Organizational Climate of Staff Working Conditions and Safety -- An Integrative Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stone, Patricia W; Harrison, Michael I; Feldman, Penny; Linzer, Mark; Peng, Timothy; Roblin, Douglas; Scott-Cawiezell, Jill; Warren, Nicholas; Williams, Eric S

    2005-01-01

    ... that are hypothesized to affect outcomes across settings, and test aspects of the model. Investigators who had surveyed health care workers' perceptions of organizational climate in six studies funded by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ...

  18. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

  19. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

    2016-02-16

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  20. Reconstructing Noah’s ark : Integration of climate change adaptation into Swedish public policy

    OpenAIRE

    Glaas, Erik

    2013-01-01

    Due to expected impacts such as flooding, landslides, and biodiversity loss, climate change adaptation has become recognized as an inevitable part of climate change policy and practice. However, our understanding of how to organize the management of adaptation is lacking, and few concrete measures have yet been implemented. Knowledge gaps exist relating to constraints on and opportunities and facilitating factors for adaptation. This study aims to fill such gaps by analyzing how Swedish clima...

  1. A new framework for integrated climate finance and inclusive responses to sustainable development in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Kamarulazizi Ibrahim; Ahmad Firdaus Ahmad Shabudin; Kanayathu Chacko Koshy; Ghassem R. Asrar

    2016-01-01

    With Malaysia's commitment to both mitigation and adaptation, the 21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change in Paris, 2015, will be both an opportunity to showcase best practices and a forum to promote international ownership of climate challenge before it becomes a catastrophe. Our experience with weather extremes is that the best time to intervene is at the risk level via prevention and preparedness, compared to any wait-and-see approach. As th...

  2. Integrating psychosocial safety climate in the JD-R model: a study amongst Malaysian workers

    OpenAIRE

    Idris, Mohd A.; Dollard, Maureen F.; Winefield, Anthony H.

    2011-01-01

    Orientation: Job characteristics are well accepted as sources of burnout and engagement amongst employees; psychosocial safety climate may precede work conditions. Research purpose: We expanded the Job Demands and Resources (JD-R) model by proposing psychosocial safety climate (PSC) as a precursor to job demands and job resources. As PSC theoretically influences the working environment, the study hypothesized that PSC has an impact on performance via both health erosion (i.e. burnout) and ...

  3. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  4. Quantifying the effects of climate change and land use change on water resources in Denmark using an integrated watershed model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. An integrated, distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system and its discharge to rivers and drains...... to current values. Changing the land use from grass to forest had a minor effect on groundwater recharge, whereas CO2 effects on transpiration resulted in a relatively large increase in recharge. This study has shown that climate change has the most substantial effect on the hydrology in this catchment......, whereas other factors such as irrigation, CO2 effects on transpiration, and land use changes affect the water balance to a lesser extent....

  5. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  6. Assessing the Benefits of Global Climate Stabilization Within an Integrated Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, R. H.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been a number of studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry. However, relatively few studies explore climate change impacts on both agriculture and forests simultaneously, including the interactions between alternative land uses and implications for market outcomes. Additionally, there is a lack of detailed analyses of the effects of stabilization scenarios relative to unabated emissions scenarios. Such analyses are important for developing estimates of the benefits of those stabilization scenarios, which can play a vital role in assessing tradeoffs associated with allocating resources across alternative mitigation and adaptation activities. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative

  7. The GLOBE Carbon Project: Integrating the Science of Carbon Cycling and Climate Change into K-12 Classrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollinger, S. V.; Silverberg, S.; Albrechtova, J.; Freuder, R.; Gengarelly, L.; Martin, M.; Randolph, G.; Schloss, A.

    2007-12-01

    The global carbon cycle is a key regulator of the Earth's climate and is central to the normal function of ecological systems. Because rising atmospheric CO2 is the principal cause of climate change, understanding how ecosystems cycle and store carbon has become an extremely important issue. In recent years, the growing importance of the carbon cycle has brought it to the forefront of both science and environmental policy. The need for better scientific understanding has led to establishment of numerous research programs, such as the North American Carbon Program (NACP), which seeks to understand controls on carbon cycling under present and future conditions. Parallel efforts are greatly needed to integrate state-of-the-art science on the carbon cycle and its importance to climate with education and outreach efforts that help prepare society to make sound decisions on energy use, carbon management and climate change adaptation. Here, we present a new effort that joins carbon cycle scientists with the International GLOBE Education program to develop carbon cycle activities for K-12 classrooms. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle project is focused on bringing cutting edge research and research techniques in the field of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling into the classroom. Students will collect data about their school field site through existing protocols of phenology, land cover and soils as well as new protocols focused on leaf traits, and ecosystem growth and change. They will also participate in classroom activities to understand carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, these will include plant- a-plant experiments, hands-on demonstrations of various concepts, and analysis of collected data. In addition to the traditional GLOBE experience, students will have the opportunity to integrate their data with emerging and expanding technologies including global and local carbon cycle models and remote sensing toolkits. This program design will allow students to explore research

  8. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  9. Linking climate change education through the integration of a kite-borne remote sensing system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yichun Xie

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A majority of secondary science teachers are found to include the topic of climate change in their courses. However, teachers informally and sporadically discuss climate change and students rarely understand the underlying scientific concepts. The project team developed an innovative pedagogical approach, in which teachers and students learn climate change concepts by analyzing National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA global data collected through satellites and by imitating the NASA data collection process through NASA Airborne Earth Research Observation Kites And Tethered Systems (AEROKATS, a kite-borne remote sensing system. Besides AEROKATS, other major components of this system include a web-collection of NASA and remote sensing data and related educational resources, project-based learning for teacher professional development, teacher and student field trips, iOS devices, smart field data collector apps, portable weather stations, probeware, and a virtual teacher collaboratory supported with a GIS-enabled mapping portal. Three sets of research instruments, the NASA Long-Term Experience –Educator End of Event Survey, the Teacher End of Project Survey, and the pre-and-post-Investigating Climate Change and Remote Sensing (ICCARS project student exams, are adapted to study the pedagogical impacts of the NASA AEROKATS remote sensing system. These findings confirm that climate change education is more effective when both teachers and students actively participate in authentic scientific inquiry by collecting and analyzing remote sensing data, developing hypotheses, designing experiments, sharing findings, and discussing results.

  10. Late Holocene climate variability in the southwestern Mediterranean region: an integrated marine and terrestrial geochemical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Martín-Puertas

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A combination of marine (Alboran Sea cores, ODP 976 and TTR 300 G and terrestrial (Zoñar Lake, Andalucia, Spain geochemical proxies provides a high-resolution reconstruction of climate variability and human influence in the southwestern Mediterranean region for the last 4000 years at inter-centennial resolution. Proxies respond to changes in precipitation rather than temperature alone. Our combined terrestrial and marine archive documents a succession of dry and wet periods coherent with the North Atlantic climate signal. A dry period occurred prior to 2.7 cal ka BP – synchronously to the global aridity crisis of the third-millennium BC – and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1.4–0.7 cal ka BP. Wetter conditions prevailed from 2.7 to 1.4 cal ka BP. Hydrological signatures during the Little Ice Age are highly variable but consistent with more humidity than the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Additionally, Pb anomalies in sediments at the end of the Bronze Age suggest anthropogenic pollution earlier than the Roman Empire development in the Iberian Peninsula. The Late Holocene climate evolution of the in the study area confirms the see-saw pattern between the eastern and western Mediterranean regions and the higher influence of the North Atlantic dynamics in the western Mediterranean.

  11. #ClimateEdCommunity : Field Workshops Bring Together Teachers and Researchers to Make Meaning of Science and Classroom Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholow, S.; Warburton, J.; Wood, J. H.; Steiner, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Seeing Understanding and Teaching: Climate Change in Denali is a four-day immersive teacher professional development course held in Denali National Park. Developed through three partner organizations, the course aims to develop teachers' skills for integrating climate change content into their classrooms. This presentation aims to share tangible best practices for linking researchers and teachers in the field, through four years of experience in program delivery and reported through a published external evaluation. This presentation will examine the key aspects of a successful connection between teachers, researchers, science, and classrooms: (1) Inclusion of teacher leaders, (2) dedicated program staff, (3) workshop community culture, and will expose barriers to this type of collaboration including (1) differences in learning style, (2) prior teaching experience, (3) existing/scaffolding understanding of climate change science, and (4) accessibility of enrollment and accommodations for the extended learning experience. Presentation Content Examples:Participants overwhelmingly value the deep commitment this course has to linking their field experience to the classroom attributing to the role of a teacher-leader; an expert science teacher with first-hand field research experience in the polar regions. The goal of including a teacher-leader is to enhance translatability between fieldwork and the classroom. Additionally, qualitative aspects of the report touches on the intangible successes of the workshop such as: (1) the creation of a non-judgmental learning atmosphere, (2) addressing accessibility to science learning tools in rural and under-served communities, (3) defining successful collaboration as making meaning together through exploratory questioning while in the field (4) discussed the social and cultural implications of climate change, and the difficulty of navigating these topics in educational and/or multicultural spaces. Next Steps? Create a #Climate

  12. An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Singh, Piara; S, Chukka; Irshad, Mohammad A; Bantilan, M C S

    2015-07-15

    The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. The Ideological Divide Concerning Climate Change Opinion: Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer eJacquet

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The United States wields disproportionate global influence in terms of carbon dioxide emissions and international climate policy. This renders it an especially important context in which to examine the interplay among social, psychological, and political factors in shaping attitudes and behaviors about climate change. In this article, we review the emerging literature addressing the liberal-conservative divide in the U.S. with respect to thought, communication, and action concerning climate change. Because of its theoretical and practical significance, we focus on the motivational basis for skepticism and inaction on the part of some, including top-down institutional forces, such as corporate strategy, and bottom-up psychological factors, such as ego, group, and system justification. Although more research is needed to elucidate fully the social, cognitive, and motivational bases of environmental attitudes and behavior, a great deal has been learned in just a few years by focusing on specific ideological factors in addition to general psychological principles.

  14. How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascal, M; Viso, A C; Medina, S; Delmas, M C; Beaudeau, P

    2012-08-01

    Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Integrated climate modelling at the Kiel Institute for World Economics: The DART Model and its applications

    OpenAIRE

    Deke, Oliver; Peterson, Sonja

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to give an overview over the DART model and its applications. The main focus is on the implementation of climate impacts into DART in the course of coupling DART to the ocean-atmosphere model and on the associated empirical problems. The basic DART model and some applications are presented in the next section. Section 3 describes in detail how the economic impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and the impact of sea level rise are implemented in DART. Se...

  16. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.

    2015-01-01

    . However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming...... climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables...

  17. Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Running, Steven W.; Keane, Robert E.; Peterson, David L.

    2005-01-01

    Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change.

  18. Climate Change in China – The Development of China’s Climate Policy and Its Integration into a New International Post-Kyoto Climate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Oberheitmann

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, global emissions of carbon dioxide have to be reduced by about 80 per cent by 2050 in order to stabilise the increase in global temperature at 2 to 2.4°C by 2100 compared with its pre-industrial level. An increase of only 2°C would bring about “acceptable” negative impacts on the eco-systems and the world economy. Without a reduction in CO2 emissions in China, however, it will be hard to achieve this goal. Currently, China is already responsible for about 50 per cent of the worldwide increase in CO2 emissions recorded over the past ten years. On the other hand, it is the industrialised countries that are mainly responsible for the greenhouse-gas emissions of earlier years. Taking the challenges of China’s economic growth, its impact on future CO2 emissions and the development of China’s climate policy into account, this article develops a new post-Kyoto regime based on cumulative per-capita emission rights.

  19. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  20. Integrating climate change into northeast and midwest State Wildlife Action Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Bryan, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) conducts research that responds to the regional natural resource management community’s needs to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. The NE CSC is supported by a consortium of partners that includes the University of Massachusetts Amherst, College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Marine Biological Laboratory, University of Minnesota, University of Missouri Columbia, and University of Wisconsin. The NE CSC also engages and collaborates with a diversity of other federal, state, academic, tribal, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to conduct collaborative, stakeholder-driven, and climate-focused work. The State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are revised every 10 years; states are currently working towards a target deadline of October 2015. SWAP coordinators have been challenged to incorporate climate change impacts and species responses into their current revisions. This synthesis is intended to inform the science going into Northeast and Midwest SWAPs across the 22 NE CSC states ranging from Maine to Virginia, and Minnesota and Missouri in the eastern United States. It is anticipated that this synthesis will help guide SWAP authors in writing specific sections, help revise and finalize existing sections, or be incorporated as an appendix or addendum. The purpose of this NE CSC-led cooperative report is to provide a synthesis of what is known and what is uncertain about climate change and its impacts across the NE CSC region, with a particular focus on the responses and vulnerabilities of Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and the habitats they depend on. Another goal is to describe a range of climate change adaptation approaches, processes, tools, and potential partnerships that are available to State natural resource managers across the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States. Through illustrative case studies submitted by the NE CSC and

  1. Integrated assessment of adaptation to Climate change in Flevoland at the farm and regional level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.; Mandryk, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Oort, van P.A.J.; Schaap, B.F.; Reidsma, P.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2011-01-01

    A key objective of the AgriAdapt project is to assess climate change impacts on agriculture including adaptation at regional and farm type level in combination with market and technological changes. More specifically, the developed methodologies enable (a) the assessment of impacts, risks and

  2. Spatial modelling of mountainous basins; An integrated analysis of the hydrological cycle, climate change and agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Water is the most essential substance on earth and a changing climate has an important impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of water availability. Mountain ranges provide an important “water tower' function and over 20% of the global population depends on fresh water resources provided by

  3. An integrated approach to climate adaptation at the Chicago Transit Authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    CTA was selected as one of seven pilots funded by FTA to advance the state of practice for adapting transit systems to the impacts of : climate change. This effort is in keeping with broader long-term goals to address state-of-good-repair needs and t...

  4. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  5. A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2016-06-01

    The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

  6. Integration of hydro-climatic data and land use in neural networks for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a context of climate disruption due to uncontrolled human activities, the classical models of rainfall - runoff modeling are almost unusable. In addition on the Lobo River (Southwest of Côte d'Ivoire), no simulation study has been carried out yet despite that, this river has flooded fields and villages causing huge losses in ...

  7. Integrating plant ecological responses to climate extremes from individual to ecosystem levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Andrew J; Smith, Melinda D

    2017-06-19

    Climate extremes will elicit responses from the individual to the ecosystem level. However, only recently have ecologists begun to synthetically assess responses to climate extremes across multiple levels of ecological organization. We review the literature to examine how plant responses vary and interact across levels of organization, focusing on how individual, population and community responses may inform ecosystem-level responses in herbaceous and forest plant communities. We report a high degree of variability at the individual level, and a consequential inconsistency in the translation of individual or population responses to directional changes in community- or ecosystem-level processes. The scaling of individual or population responses to community or ecosystem responses is often predicated upon the functional identity of the species in the community, in particular, the dominant species. Furthermore, the reported stability in plant community composition and functioning with respect to extremes is often driven by processes that operate at the community level, such as species niche partitioning and compensatory responses during or after the event. Future research efforts would benefit from assessing ecological responses across multiple levels of organization, as this will provide both a holistic and mechanistic understanding of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic variability.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly

  9. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, R.; Mooij, W.M.; Brainard, Russell E.

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly

  10. Framework for multi-scale integrated impact analyses of climate change mitigation options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perez-Soba, M.; Parr, T.; Roupioz, L.F.S.; Winograd, M.; Peña-Claros, M.; Varela Ortega, C.; Ascarrunz, N.; Balvanera, P.; Bholanath, P.; Equihua, M.; Guerreiro, L.; Jones, L.; Maass, M.; Thonicke, K.

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forest ecosystems are hotspots for biodiversity and represent one of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks, making their role in climate change mitigation (CCM) programmes increasingly important (e.g. REDD+). In Latin America these ecosystems suffer from high land use pressures that have

  11. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 4. Water Resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, A.M.; Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Srinivasan, R.

    2005-01-01

    Global climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle by increasing the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture. Anticipated impacts are generally increased evaporation at low latitudes and increased precipitation at middle and high latitudes. General Circulation Models (GCMs) used to simulate climate disagree on whether the U.S. as a whole and its constituent regions will receive more or less precipitation as global warming occurs. The impacts on specific regions will depend on changes in weather patterns and are certain to be complex. Here we apply the suite of 12 potential climate change scenarios, previously described in Part 1, to the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) to simulate water supply in the conterminous United States in reference to a baseline scenario. We examine the sufficiency of this water supply to meet changing demands of irrigated agriculture. The changes in water supply driven by changes in climate will likely be most consequential in the semi-arid western parts of the country where water yield is currently scarce and the resource is intensively managed. Changes of greater than ±50% with respect to present day water yield are projected in parts of the Midwest and Southwest U.S. Interannual variability in the water supply is likely to increase where conditions become drier and to decrease under wetter conditions

  12. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs : An integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2016-01-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of

  13. Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

    2017-01-01

    We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

  14. Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.

    2016-07-01

    Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

  15. Perceptions of climate change and its impact on human health: an integrated quantitative and qualitative approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toan, Do Thi Thanh; Kien, Vu Duy; Bao Giang, Kim; Van Minh, Hoang; Wright, Pamela

    2014-01-01

    The World Health Organization emphasized that climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, especially in lower income populations and tropical/subtropical countries. However, people in Asia and Africa were the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In Vietnam, little research has been conducted concerning the perceptions of effects of climate change on human health. The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions on climate change and its impact on human health among people in Hanoi. We applied a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to study perceptions on climate change among people in Hanoi. A total of 1,444 people were recruited, including 754 people living in non-slum areas and 690 people living in slum areas of Hanoi. A structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data on their perceptions. In a parallel qualitative study, two focus group discussions and 12 in-depth interviews (IDs) were carried out involving 24 people from both slum and non-slum areas. The majority of the respondents in the study had heard about climate change and its impact on human health (79.3 and 70.1% in non-slum and slum areas, respectively). About one third of the respondents reported that members of their family had experienced illness in the recent summer and winter compared to the same seasons 5 years ago. The most common symptoms reported during hot weather were headaches, fatigue, and dizziness; hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases were also reported. During cold weather, people reported experiencing cough, fever, and influenza, as well as pneumonia and emerging infectious diseases such as dengue and Japanese encephalitis. The observed high level of awareness on the links between climate change and human health may help to increase the success of the National Prevention Program on Climate Change. Moreover, understanding the concerns of the people may help policy makers to develop and implement effective

  16. Perceptions of climate change and its impact on human health: an integrated quantitative and qualitative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Do Thi Thanh Toan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The World Health Organization emphasized that climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, especially in lower income populations and tropical/subtropical countries. However, people in Asia and Africa were the least likely to perceive global warming as a threat. In Vietnam, little research has been conducted concerning the perceptions of effects of climate change on human health. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions on climate change and its impact on human health among people in Hanoi. Design: We applied a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to study perceptions on climate change among people in Hanoi. A total of 1,444 people were recruited, including 754 people living in non-slum areas and 690 people living in slum areas of Hanoi. A structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data on their perceptions. In a parallel qualitative study, two focus group discussions and 12 in-depth interviews (IDs were carried out involving 24 people from both slum and non-slum areas. Results: The majority of the respondents in the study had heard about climate change and its impact on human health (79.3 and 70.1% in non-slum and slum areas, respectively. About one third of the respondents reported that members of their family had experienced illness in the recent summer and winter compared to the same seasons 5 years ago. The most common symptoms reported during hot weather were headaches, fatigue, and dizziness; hypertension and other cardiovascular diseases were also reported. During cold weather, people reported experiencing cough, fever, and influenza, as well as pneumonia and emerging infectious diseases such as dengue and Japanese encephalitis. Conclusions: The observed high level of awareness on the links between climate change and human health may help to increase the success of the National Prevention Program on Climate Change. Moreover, understanding the concerns of

  17. AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antle, John M.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Janssen, Sander; Jones, James W.; Porter, Cheryl H.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Thorburn, Peter J.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter describes methods developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to implement a transdisciplinary, systems-based approach for regional-scale (local to national) integrated assessment of agricultural systems under future climate, biophysical, and socio-economic conditions. These methods were used by the AgMIP regional research teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to implement the analyses reported in their respective chapters of this book. Additional technical details are provided in Appendix 1.The principal goal that motivates AgMIP's regional integrated assessment (RIA) methodology is to provide scientifically rigorous information needed to support improved decision-making by various stakeholders, ranging from local to national and international non-governmental and governmental organizations.

  18. Integrated and Optimized Energy-Efficient Construction Package for a Community of Production Homes in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.; Del Bianco, M.

    2014-10-01

    Selection and integration of high performance home features are two sides of the same coin in energy efficient sustainable construction. Many advanced technologies are available for selection, but it is in the integration of these technologies into an affordable set of features that can be used on a production basis by builders, that ensures whole-house performance meets expectations. This research high performance home analyzes how a set of advanced technologies can be integrated into a durable and energy efficient house in the mixed-humid climate while remaining affordable to homeowners. The technical solutions documented in this report are the cornerstone of the builder's entire business model based on delivering high-performance homes on a production basis as a standard product offering to all price segments of the residential market. Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with production builder Nexus EnergyHomes (CZ 4). The builder plans to adopt the successful components of the energy solution package for all 55 homes in the community. The research objective was to optimize the builder's energy solution package based on energy performance and construction costs. All of the major construction features, including envelope upgrades, space conditioning system, hot water system, and solar electric system were analyzed. The information in this report can be used by builders and designers to evaluate options, and the integration of options, for increasing the efficiency of home designs in climate zone 4. The data also provide a point of reference for evaluating estimates of energy savings and costs for specific features.

  19. Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

    2015-12-01

    Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

  20. Sustainability of integrated land and water resources management in the face of climate and land use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setegn, Shimelis

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable development integrates economic development, social development, and environmental protection. Land and Water resources are under severe pressure from increasing populations, fast development, deforestation, intensification of agriculture and the degrading environment in many part of the world. The demand for adequate and safe supplies of water is becoming crucial especially in the overpopulated urban centers of the Caribbean islands. Moreover, population growth coupled with environmental degradation and possible adverse impacts of land use and climate change are major factors limiting freshwater resource availability. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model and analyze the spatiotemporal variability of hydrological processes in the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Physically based eco-hydrological model was developed and calibrated in the Rio Grande Manati and Wag water watershed. Spatial distribution of annual hydrological processes, water balance components for wet and dry years, and annual hydrological water balance of the watershed are discussed. The impact of land use and climate change are addressed in the watersheds. Appropriate nature based adaptation strategies were evaluated. The study will present a good understanding of advantages and disadvantages of nature-based solutions for adapting climate change, hydro-meteorological risks and other extreme hydrological events.

  1. Integration of modern statistical tools for the analysis of climate extremes into the web-GIS “CLIMATE”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryazanova, A. A.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Gordov, E. P.

    2017-11-01

    The frequency of occurrence and magnitude of precipitation and temperature extreme events show positive trends in several geographical regions. These events must be analyzed and studied in order to better understand their impact on the environment, predict their occurrences, and mitigate their effects. For this purpose, we augmented web-GIS called “CLIMATE” to include a dedicated statistical package developed in the R language. The web-GIS “CLIMATE” is a software platform for cloud storage processing and visualization of distributed archives of spatial datasets. It is based on a combined use of web and GIS technologies with reliable procedures for searching, extracting, processing, and visualizing the spatial data archives. The system provides a set of thematic online tools for the complex analysis of current and future climate changes and their effects on the environment. The package includes new powerful methods of time-dependent statistics of extremes, quantile regression and copula approach for the detailed analysis of various climate extreme events. Specifically, the very promising copula approach allows obtaining the structural connections between the extremes and the various environmental characteristics. The new statistical methods integrated into the web-GIS “CLIMATE” can significantly facilitate and accelerate the complex analysis of climate extremes using only a desktop PC connected to the Internet.

  2. Energy metrics of photovoltaic/thermal and earth air heat exchanger integrated greenhouse for different climatic conditions of India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nayak, Sujata; Tiwari, G.N. [Centre for Energy Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016 (India)

    2010-10-15

    In this paper, a study is carried out to evaluate the annual thermal and exergy performance of a photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) and earth air heat exchanger (EAHE) system, integrated with a greenhouse, located at IIT Delhi, India, for different climatic conditions of Srinagar, Mumbai, Jodhpur, New Delhi and Bangalore. A comparison is made of various energy metrics, such as energy payback time (EPBT), electricity production factor (EPF) and life cycle conversion efficiency (LCCE) of the system by considering four weather conditions (a-d type) for five climatic zones. The embodied energy and annual energy outputs have been used for evaluation of the energy metrics. The annual overall thermal energy, annual electrical energy savings and annual exergy was found to be best for the climatic condition of Jodhpur at 29,156.8 kWh, 1185 kWh and 1366.4 kWh, respectively when compared with other weather stations covered in the study, due to higher solar intensity I and sunshine hours, and is lowest for Srinagar station. The results also showed that energy payback time for Jodhpur station is lowest at 16.7 years and highest for Srinagar station at 21.6 years. Electricity production factor (EPF) is highest for Jodhpur, i.e. 2.04 and Life cycle conversion efficiency (LCCE) is highest for Srinagar station. It is also observed that LCCE increases with increase in life cycle. (author)

  3. Integrating climate change adaptation into Dutch local policies and the role of contextual factors.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Moving towards a more sustainable adaptation process requires closer integration of policies related to the environment. An important actor in this is the local government. This paper examines to what extend adaptation is currently being integrated into Dutch local policies, and what the role is of

  4. Climate Change Impacts on Seagrass Meadows and Macroalgal Forests: An Integrative Perspective on Acclimation and Adaptation Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo Duarte

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine macrophytes are the foundation of algal forests and seagrass meadows–some of the most productive and diverse coastal marine ecosystems on the planet. These ecosystems provide nursery grounds and food for fish and invertebrates, coastline protection from erosion, carbon sequestration, and nutrient fixation. For marine macrophytes, temperature is generally the most important range limiting factor, and ocean warming is considered the most severe threat among global climate change factors. Ocean warming induced losses of dominant macrophytes along their equatorial range edges, as well as range extensions into polar regions, are predicted and already documented. While adaptive evolution based on genetic change is considered too slow to keep pace with the increasing rate of anthropogenic environmental changes, rapid adaptation may come about through a set of non-genetic mechanisms involving the functional composition of the associated microbiome, as well as epigenetic modification of the genome and its regulatory effect on gene expression and the activity of transposable elements. While research in terrestrial plants demonstrates that the integration of non-genetic mechanisms provide a more holistic picture of a species' evolutionary potential, research in marine systems is lagging behind. Here, we aim to review the potential of marine macrophytes to acclimatize and adapt to major climate change effects via intraspecific variation at the genetic, epigenetic, and microbiome levels. All three levels create phenotypic variation that may either enhance fitness within individuals (plasticity or be subject to selection and ultimately, adaptation. We review three of the most important phenotypic variations in a climate change context, including physiological variation, variation in propagation success, and in herbivore resistance. Integrating different levels of plasticity, and adaptability into ecological models will allow to obtain a more holistic

  5. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.

    2011-11-01

    Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a

  6. Integrated Drought Monitoring and Forecasts for Decision Making in Water and Agricultural Sectors over the Southeastern US under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Ward, R.

    2017-12-01

    Changing climate arising from structured oscillations such as ENSO and rising temperature poses challenging issues in meeting the increasing water demand (due to population growth) for public supply and agriculture over the Southeast US. This together with infrastructural (e.g., most reservoirs being within-year systems) and operational (e.g., static rule curves) constraints requires an integrated approach that seamlessly monitors and forecasts water and soil moisture conditions to support adaptive decision making in water and agricultural sectors. In this talk, we discuss the utility of an integrated drought management portal that both monitors and forecasts streamflow and soil moisture over the southeast US. The forecasts are continuously developed and updated by forcing monthly-to-seasonal climate forecasts with a land surface model for various target basins. The portal also houses a reservoir allocation model that allows water managers to explore different release policies in meeting the system constraints and target storages conditioned on the forecasts. The talk will also demonstrate how past events (e.g., 2007-2008 drought) could be proactively monitored and managed to improve decision making in water and agricultural sectors over the Southeast US. Challenges in utilizing the portal information from institutional and operational perspectives will also be presented.

  7. Hydrological Responses of Andean Lakes and Tropical Floodplains to Climate Variability and Human Intervention: an Integrative Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, I. C.; González Morales, C.; Serna López, J. P.; Duque, C. L.; Canon Barriga, J. E.; Dominguez, F.

    2013-12-01

    Andean water bodies in tropical regions are significantly influenced by fluctuations associated with climatic and anthropogenic drivers, which implies long term changes in mountain snow peaks, land covers and ecosystems, among others. Our work aims at providing an integrative framework to realistically assess the possible future of natural water bodies with different degrees of human intervention. We are studying in particular the evolution of three water bodies in Colombia: two Andean lakes and a floodplain wetland. These natural reservoirs represent the accumulated effect of hydrological processes in their respective basins, which exhibit different patterns of climate variability and distinct human intervention and environmental histories. Modelling the hydrological responses of these local water bodies to climate variability and human intervention require an understanding of the strong linkage between geophysical and social factors. From the geophysical perspective, the challenge is how to downscale global climate projections in the local context: complex orography and relative lack of data. To overcome this challenge we combine the correlational and physically based analysis of several sources of spatially distributed biophysical and meteorological information to accurately determine aspects such as moisture sources and sinks and past, present and future local precipitation and temperature regimes. From the social perspective, the challenge is how to adequately represent and incorporate into the models the likely response of social agents whose water-related interests are diverse and usually conflictive. To deal with the complexity of these systems we develop interaction matrices, which are useful tools to holistically discuss and represent each environment as a complex system. Our goal is to assess partially the uncertainties of the hydrological balances in these intervened water bodies we establish climate/social scenarios, using hybrid models that combine

  8. Workshop summary: 'Integrating air quality and climate mitigation - is there a need for new metrics to support decision making?'

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Schneidemesser, E.; Schmale, J.; Van Aardenne, J.

    2013-12-01

    Air pollution and climate change are often treated at national and international level as separate problems under different regulatory or thematic frameworks and different policy departments. With air pollution and climate change being strongly linked with regard to their causes, effects and mitigation options, the integration of policies that steer air pollutant and greenhouse gas emission reductions might result in cost-efficient, more effective and thus more sustainable tackling of the two problems. To support informed decision making and to work towards an integrated air quality and climate change mitigation policy requires the identification, quantification and communication of present-day and potential future co-benefits and trade-offs. The identification of co-benefits and trade-offs requires the application of appropriate metrics that are well rooted in science, easy to understand and reflect the needs of policy, industry and the public for informed decision making. For the purpose of this workshop, metrics were loosely defined as a quantified measure of effect or impact used to inform decision-making and to evaluate mitigation measures. The workshop held on October 9 and 10 and co-organized between the European Environment Agency and the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies brought together representatives from science, policy, NGOs, and industry to discuss whether current available metrics are 'fit for purpose' or whether there is a need to develop alternative metrics or reassess the way current metrics are used and communicated. Based on the workshop outcome the presentation will (a) summarize the informational needs and current application of metrics by the end-users, who, depending on their field and area of operation might require health, policy, and/or economically relevant parameters at different scales, (b) provide an overview of the state of the science of currently used and newly developed metrics, and the scientific validity of these

  9. Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

    2010-01-01

    The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

  10. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E

    2015-02-01

    Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  11. Integrating Fire, Climate, and Societal Factors into Decision Support for Strategic Planning in Wildland Fire Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara J. Morehouse; Gregg Garfin; Timothy Brown; Thomas W. Swetnam

    2006-01-01

    An El Niño winter in 1998-99, followed by a strong La Niña winter in 1999- 2000, set the stage for potentially large wildfires in the southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern forests of the United States. Researchers at the University of Arizona organized a three-day workshop to discuss the relationship between synoptic scale climate conditions and wildland fire...

  12. Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donatuto, Jamie; Grossman, Eric E.; Konovsky, John; Grossman, Sarah; Campbell, Larry W.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

  13. Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ward-Garrison, D. Christian; Risley, John C.; Battaglin, William A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Chase, Katherine J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Dudley, Robert W.; Hunt, Randall J.; Koczot, Kathryn M.; Mastin, Mark C.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.; Vining, Kevin C.; Walker, John F.

    2012-01-01

    A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

  14. A simulation tool for integrating climate change and Canadian surface transport : towards assessing impacts and adaptations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanaroglou, P.; Maoh, H.; Woudsma, C.; Marshall, S.

    2008-01-01

    Extreme weather events resulting from climate change will have a significant impact of the performance of the Canadian transportation system. This presentation described a simulation tool designed to investigate the potential ramifications of future climate change on transportation and the economy. The CLIMATE-C tool was designed to simulate future weather scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 using weather parameters obtained from a global general circulation model. The model accounted for linkages between weather, transportation, and economic systems. A random utility-based multi-regional input-output model was used to predict inter-regional trade flows by truck and rail in Canada. Simulated weather scenarios were used to describe predicted changes in demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments to 2100. Various changes in population and economic growth were considered. Six additional scenarios were formulated to consider moderate and high rainfall events, moderate, high and extreme snowfall, and cold temperatures. Results of the preliminary analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in weather events. Future research is needed to evaluate future weather scenarios and analyze weather-transport data in order to quantify travel speed reduction parameters. tabs., figs.

  15. Stakeholder integrated research (STIR): a new approach tested in climate change adaptation research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gramberger, M.; Zellmer, K.; Kok, K.; Metzger, M.J.

    2015-01-01

    Ensuring active participation of stakeholders in scientific projects faces many challenges. These range from adequately selecting stakeholders, overcoming stakeholder fatigue, and dealing with the limited time available for stakeholder engagement, to interacting with, and integrating, the research

  16. Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

    2010-05-01

    Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We

  17. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2014-09-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  18. ICLEA - The Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Markus; Brauer, Achim; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Blume, Theresa; Raab, Thomas; Wilmking, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Since 2012, the partner of the virtual institute ICLEA from Germany and Poland view on past changes as natural experiments as a guidebook for better anticipation of future changes and their impacts. Since the natural evolution became increasingly superimposed by human impacts since the Neolithic we include an in-depth discussion of impacts of climate and environment change on societies and vice versa. Understanding causes and effects of present-day climate change on landscapes and the human habitat faces two main challenges, (I) too short time series of instrumental observation that do not cover the full range of variability since mechanisms of climate change and landscape evolution work on different time scales, which often not susceptible to human perception, and, (II) distinct regional differences due to the location with respect to oceanic/continental climatic influences, the geological underground, and the history and intensity of anthropogenic land-use. Both challenges are central for the ICLEA research strategy and demand a high degree of interdisciplinary. In particular, the need to link observations and measurements of ongoing changes with information from the past taken from natural archives requires joint work of scientists with very different time perspectives. On the one hand, scientists that work at geological time scales of thousands and more years and, on the other hand, those observing and investigating recent processes at short time scales. Five complementary work packages (WP) are established according to the key research aspects: WP 1 focused on monitoring mainly hydrology and soil moisture as well as meteorological parameters. WP 2 is linking present day and future monitoring data with the most recent past through analyzing satellite images. This WP will further provide larger spatial scales. WP 3-5 are focused on different natural archives to obtain a broad variety of high quality proxy data. Tree rings provide sub-seasonal data for the last

  19. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kaplan, Isaac C; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M; Brainard, Russell E

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers

  20. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariska Weijerman

    Full Text Available Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1 ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2 trophic level of the community, 3 biomass of apex predators, 4 biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5 total biomass of living groups and 6 the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations, climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with

  1. Utilizing the NASA Data-enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education Resource for Elementary Pre-service Teachers in a Technology Integration Education Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, E. M.; Moore, T.; Hale, S. R.; Hayden, L. B.; Johnson, D.

    2014-12-01

    The preservice teachers enrolled in the EDUC 203 Introduction to Computer Instructional Technology course, primarily for elementary-level had created climate change educational lessons based upon their use of the NASA Data-enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (DICCE). NASA climate education datasets and tools were introduced to faculty of Minority Serving Institutions through a grant from the NASA Innovations in Climate Education program. These lessons were developed to study various ocean processes involving phytoplankton's chlorophyll production over time for specific geographic areas using the Giovanni NASA software tool. The pre-service teachers had designed the climate change content that will assist K-4 learners to identify and predict phytoplankton sources attributed to sea surface temperatures, nutrient levels, sunlight, and atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with annual chlorophyll production. From the EDUC 203 course content, the preservice teachers applied the three phases of the technology integration planning (TIP) model in developing their lessons. The Zunal website (http://www.zunal.com) served as a hypermedia tool for online instructional delivery in presenting the climate change content, the NASA climate datasets, and the visualization tools used for the production of elementary learning units. A rubric was developed to assess students' development of their webquests to meet the overall learning objectives and specific climate education objectives. Accompanying each webquest is a rubric with a defined table of criteria, for a teacher to assess students completing each of the required tasks for each lesson. Two primary challenges of technology integration for elementary pre-service teachers were 1) motivating pre-service teachers to be interested in climate education and 2) aligning elementary learning objectives with the Next Generation science standards of climate education that are non-existent in the Common Core State

  2. Integrating climate change criteria in reforestation projects using a hybrid decision-support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curiel-Esparza, Jorge; Gonzalez-Utrillas, Nuria; Canto-Perello, Julian; Martin-Utrillas, Manuel

    2015-09-01

    The selection of appropriate species in a reforestation project has always been a complex decision-making problem in which, due mostly to government policies and other stakeholders, not only economic criteria but also other environmental issues interact. Climate change has not usually been taken into account in traditional reforestation decision-making strategies and management procedures. Moreover, there is a lack of agreement on the percentage of each one of the species in reforestation planning, which is usually calculated in a discretionary way. In this context, an effective multicriteria technique has been developed in order to improve the process of selecting species for reforestation in the Mediterranean region of Spain. A hybrid Delphi-AHP methodology is proposed, which includes a consistency analysis in order to reduce random choices. As a result, this technique provides an optimal percentage distribution of the appropriate species to be used in reforestation planning. The highest values of the weight given for each subcriteria corresponded to FR (fire forest response) and PR (pests and diseases risk), because of the increasing importance of the impact of climate change in the forest. However, CB (conservation of biodiversitiy) was in the third position in line with the aim of reforestation. Therefore, the most suitable species were Quercus faginea (19.75%) and Quercus ilex (19.35%), which offer a good balance between all the factors affecting the success and viability of reforestation.

  3. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  4. A new framework for integrated climate finance and inclusive responses to sustainable development in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamarulazizi Ibrahim

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available With Malaysia's commitment to both mitigation and adaptation, the 21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change in Paris, 2015, will be both an opportunity to showcase best practices and a forum to promote international ownership of climate challenge before it becomes a catastrophe. Our experience with weather extremes is that the best time to intervene is at the risk level via prevention and preparedness, compared to any wait-and-see approach. As the Honourable Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dato' Sri Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, elaborated during the recent 11th Malaysia Plan presentation to the parliament, ‘such an approach has to be seen as part of adopting green growth and increasing our commitment to long-term sustainability’. Malaysia is also aware that this requires policy support, technological interventions and financial commitment. It is for this reason the Malaysia's pledge at the Copenhagen COP-15 was to reduce its carbon emission by 40% from 2005 levels by 2020, subject to technology transfer and financial support by developed countries. Having achieved a 33% reduction in the last five years, Malaysia is convinced that it can reach the 40% target following an inclusive partnership framework for action.

  5. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  6. A new framework for integrated climate finance and inclusive responses to sustainable development in Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibrahim, Kamarulazizi; Shabudin, Ahmad Firdaus Ahmad; Chacko Koshy, Kanayathu; Asrar, Ghassem R.

    2016-03-09

    With Malaysia's commitment to both mitigation and adaptation, the 21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change in Paris, 2015, will be both an opportunity to showcase best practices and a forum to promote international ownership of climate challenge before it becomes a catastrophe. Our experience with weather extremes is that the best time to intervene is at the risk level via prevention and preparedness, compared to any wait-and-see approach. As the Honourable Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dato' Sri Mohd Najib Abdul Razak, elaborated during the recent 11th Malaysia Plan presentation to the parliament, ‘such an approach has to be seen as part of adopting green growth and increasing our commitment to long-term sustainability’. Malaysia is also aware that this requires policy support, technological interventions and financial commitment. It is for this reason the Malaysia's pledge at the Copenhagen COP-15 was to reduce its carbon emission by 40% from 2005 levels by 2020, subject to technology transfer and financial support by developed countries. Having achieved a 33% reduction in the last five years, Malaysia is convinced that it can reach the 40% target following an inclusive partnership framework for action.

  7. The integration of multiple independent data reveals an unusual response to Pleistocene climatic changes in the hard tick Ixodes ricinus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porretta, Daniele; Mastrantonio, Valentina; Mona, Stefano; Epis, Sara; Montagna, Matteo; Sassera, Davide; Bandi, Claudio; Urbanelli, Sandra

    2013-03-01

    In the last few years, improved analytical tools and the integration of genetic data with multiple sources of information have shown that temperate species exhibited more complex responses to ice ages than previously thought. In this study, we investigated how Pleistocene climatic changes affected the current distribution and genetic diversity of European populations of the tick Ixodes ricinus, an ectoparasite with high ecological plasticity. We first used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers to investigate the phylogeographic structure of the species and its Pleistocene history using coalescent-based methods; then we used species distribution modelling to infer the climatic niche of the species at last glacial maximum; finally, we reviewed the literature on the I. ricinus hosts to identify the locations of their glacial refugia. Our results support the scenario that during the last glacial phase, I. ricinus never experienced a prolonged allopatric divergence in separate glacial refugia, but persisted with interconnected populations across Southern and Central Europe. The generalist behaviour in host choice of I. ricinus would have played a major role in maintaining connections between its populations. Although most of the hosts persisted in separate refugia, from the point of view of I. ricinus, they represented a continuity of 'bridges' among populations. Our study highlights the importance of species-specific ecology in affecting responses to Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Together with other cases in Europe and elsewhere, it contributes to setting new hypotheses on how species with wide ecological plasticity coped with Pleistocene climatic changes. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Strategies to promote a climate of academic integrity and minimize student cheating and plagiarism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlan, Craig L

    2006-01-01

    Student academic misconduct is a growing problem for colleges and universities, including those responsible for preparing health professionals. Although the implementation of honor codes has had a positive impact on this problem, further reduction in student cheating and plagiarism can be achieved only via a comprehensive strategy that promotes an institutional culture of academic integrity. Such a strategy must combine efforts both to deter and detect academic misconduct, along with fair but rigorous application of sanctions against such behaviors. Methods useful in preventing or deterring dishonest behaviors among students include early integrity training complemented with course-level reinforcement, faculty role-modeling, and the application of selected testing/assignment preventive strategies, including honor pledges and honesty declarations. Giving students more responsibility for oversight of academic integrity also may help address this problem and better promote the culture needed to uphold its principles. Successful enforcement requires that academic administration provide strong and visible support for upholding academic integrity standards, including the provision of a clear and fair process and the consistent application of appropriate sanctions against those whose conduct is found to violate these standards.

  9. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R. P.; Bindi, M.; Weber, H.; Trnka, Miroslav; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; van Ittersum, M. K.; Janssen, S.; Rivingtom, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J. R.; Stewart, D.; Vegahen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palouso, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P. P.; Bartošová, Lenka; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 72, oct (2015), s. 287-303 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : uncertainty * scaling * integrated assessment * risk assessment * adaptation * crop models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.207, year: 2015

  10. Do we have to take action today in front of climate change? The contribution of integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minh, Ha-Duong; Hourcade, J.Ch.

    2007-03-01

    What shall we do in front of climatic change? Considering the potential seriousness of global risks, shall we start drastic policies of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions? Taking into account the cost of these policies and the uncertainties about the reality of risks, should we postpone the action? Do the efforts of emissions abatement make a good use of rare resources when the stake is only to gain few degrees of temperature and while we need today urgent developments to fight against poverty? One of the priorities of CIRED, a mixed research unit involved in the sustainable development issue, is to clarify the terms of the debate in order to avoid its transformation into a conflict which would paralyze any significant action. To do so, CIRED has elaborated 'integrated' models which allow to study the optimal answer to be adopted considering the size of uncertainties and the forcefulness of the controversies which characterize this subject. (J.S.)

  11. Integrated and Optimized Energy-Efficient Construction Package for a Community of Production Homes in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, D. [Partnership for Home Innovation, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Wiehagen, J. [Partnership for Home Innovation, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Del Bianco, M. [Partnership for Home Innovation, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This research high performance home analyzes how a set of advanced technologies can be integrated into a durable and energy-efficient house in the mixed-humid climate while remaining affordable to homeowners. The technical solutions documented in this report are the cornerstone of the builder's entire business model based on delivering high-performance homes on a production basis as a standard product offering to all price segments of the residential market. Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with production builder Nexus EnergyHomes (CZ 4) and they plan to adopt the successful components of the energy solution package for all 55 homes in the community. The research objective was to optimize the builder's energy solution package based on energy performance and construction costs. All of the major construction features, including envelope upgrades, space conditioning system, hot water system, and solar electric system were analyzed.

  12. An Integrative Approach to Understand the Climatic-Hydrological Process: A Case Study of Yarkand River, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the Yarkand River as an example, this paper conducted an integrative approach combining the Durbin-Watson statistic test (DWST, multiple linear regression (MLR, wavelet analysis (WA, coefficient of determination (CD, and Akaike information criterion (AIC to analyze the climatic-hydrological process of inland river, Northwest China from a multitime scale perspective. The main findings are as follows. (1 The hydrologic and climatic variables, that is, annual runoff (AR, annual average temperature, (AAT and annual precipitation (AP, are stochastic and, no significant autocorrelation. (2 The variation patterns of runoff, temperature, and precipitation were scale dependent in time. AR, AAT, and AP basically present linear trends at 16-year and 32-year scales, but they show nonlinear fluctuations at 2-year and 4-year scales. (3 The relationship between AR with AAT and AP was simulated by the multiple linear regression equation (MLRE based on wavelet analysis at each time scale. But the simulated effect at a larger time scale is better than that at a smaller time scale.

  13. Linking Environmental Research and Practice: Lessons From The Integration of Climate Science and Water Management in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, D. B.; Rice, J.; Woodhouse, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    Efforts to better connect scientific research with people and organizations involved in environmental decision making are receiving increased interest and attention. Some of the challenges we currently face, however—including complex questions associated with climate change—present unique challenges because of their scale and scope. Focused research on the intersections between environment and society has provided substantial insight into dynamics of large-scale environmental change and the related impacts on people, natural resources, and ecosystems, yet our ability to connect this research to real-world decision making remains limited. Addressing these complex environmental problems requires broad cooperation between scientists and those who may apply research results in decision making, but there are few templates for guiding the growing number of scientists and practitioners now engaging in this kind of cooperative work. This presentation will offer a set of heuristics for carrying out collaborative work between scientists and practitioners. These heuristics were derived from research that examined the direct experiences of water resources professionals and climate researchers who have been working to integrate science and practice.

  14. Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

    2009-12-01

    In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated

  15. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...... for automated analyses that allow the planner to quickly identify if, when and how infrastructure should be modified. Such analysis, which accounts for the two-way interactions between city development and flood risk, is possible only to a limited extent in existing tools. We have developed a software framework...

  16. Economic impact of integrated policies to respond to threats of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the Argonne Multisector Industry Growth Assessment Model (AMIGA), which is a tool for policy impact analysis in the context of the economy as a whole and its individual sectors. AMIGA is currently being used by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to help understand and evaluate these DOE programs, including more efficient motor vehicle programs. The steps being taken under the US Climate Change Action Plan are being assessed using AMIGA. However, because AMIGA represents prices of goods and services and the wages of workers, AMIGA has the capability to represent incentive approaches to greenhouse gas emissions reductions such as a carbon tax. The ''best'' policy option in a ''second-best'' world may be a mix, or bundle of incentives, voluntary programs, and command-and-control regulations. Detailed reports on model documentation and simulation studies will be available from the author

  17. Emergence of long distance bird migrations: a new model integrating global climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louchart, Antoine

    2008-12-01

    During modern birds history, climatic and environmental conditions have evolved on wide scales. In a continuously changing world, landbirds annual migrations emerged and developed. However, models accounting for the origins of these avian migrations were formulated with static ecogeographic perspectives. Here I reviewed Cenozoic paleoclimatic and paleontological data relative to the palearctic paleotropical long distance (LD) migration system. This led to propose a new model for the origin of LD migrations, the ‘shifting home’ model (SHM). It is based on a dynamic perspective of climate evolution and may apply to the origins of most modern migrations. Non-migrant tropical African bird taxa were present at European latitudes during most of the Cenozoic. Their distribution limits shifted progressively toward modern tropical latitudes during periods of global cooling and increasing seasonality. In parallel, decreasing winter temperatures in the western Palearctic drove shifts of population winter ranges toward the equator. I propose that this induced the emergence of most short distance migrations, and in turn LD migrations. This model reconciliates ecologically tropical ancestry of most LD migrants with predominant winter range shifts, in accordance with requirements for heritable homing. In addition, it is more parsimonious than other non-exclusive models. Greater intrinsic plasticity of winter ranges implied by the SHM is supported by recently observed impacts of the present global warming on migrating birds. This may induce particular threats to some LD migrants. The ancestral, breeding homes of LD migrants were not ‘northern’ or ‘southern’ but shifted across high and middle latitudes while migrations emerged through winter range shifts themselves.

  18. Integration of climate change in flood prediction: application to the Somme river (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinault, J.-L.; Amraoui, N.; Noyer, M.-L.

    2003-04-01

    Exceptional floods that have occurred for the last two years in western and central Europe were very unlikely. The concomitance of such rare events shows that they might be imputable to climate change. The statistical analysis of long rainfall series confirms that both the cumulated annual height and the temporal variability have increased for the last decade. This paper is devoted to the analysis of climate change impact on flood prediction applied to the Somme river. The exceptional pluviometry that occurred from October 2000 to April 2001, about the double of the mean value, entailed catastrophic flood between the high Somme and Abbeville. The flow reached a peak at the beginning of May 2001, involving damages in numerous habitations and communication routes, and economical activity of the region had been flood-bound for more than 2 months. The flood caught unaware the population and caused deep traumas in France since it was the first time such a sudden event was recognized as resulting from groundwater discharge. Mechanisms of flood generation were studied tightly in order to predict the behavior of the Somme catchment and other urbanized basins when the pluviometry is exceptional in winter or in spring, which occurs more and more frequently in the northern part of Europe. The contribution of groundwater in surface water flow was calculated by inverse modeling from piezometers that are representative of aquifers in valleys. They were found on the slopes and near the edge of plateaus in order to characterize the drainage processes of the watertable to the surface water network. For flood prediction, a stochastic process is used, consisting in the generation of both rainfall and PET time series. The precipitation generator uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and simulated annealing from the Hastings -- Metropolis algorithm. Coupling of rainfall and PET generators with transfer enables a new evaluation of the probability of occurrence of floods, taking into account

  19. An Integrated Approach for Understanding Anthropogenic and Climatic Impacts on Lakes: A Case study from Lake Iznik, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derin, Y.; Milewski, A.; Fryar, A. E.; Schroeder, P.

    2013-12-01

    Lakes are among the most vital natural water resource, providing many environmental and economic advantages to a region. Unfortunately, many lakes are disappearing or continue to be polluted as industrial and agricultural practices increase to keep pace with rising populations. Lake Iznik, the biggest lake (approximately 300 km2) in the Marmara Region in Turkey, is a significant water resource as it provides opportunities for recreational activities, agriculture, industry, and water production for the region. However, rapid population growth combined with poor land management practices in this water basin has contributed to decreased water quality and water levels. As a result, Lake Iznik has switched from being Mesotrophic to Eutrophic in the past thirty years. This research aims to understand both the anthropogenic and climatic impacts on Lake Iznik. An integrated approach combining satellite remote sensing, hydrogeology, hydrologic modeling, and climatology was utilized to identify the source and timing responsible for the decline in water quality and quantity. Specifically, Landsat TM images from 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were collected, processed, and analyzed for changes in landuse/landcover and surface area extent of Lake Iznik. Water level and water quality data (e.g. streamflow, lake level, pH, conductivity, total nitrogen, total dissolved solid etc.) collected from the General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSI) from 1980-2012 were obtained from 4 stations and compared to the Landsat landuse mosaics. Meteorological data collected from Turkish State Meteorological Service from 1983-2012 were obtained from 3 stations (precipitation, temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, vapor pressure, wind speed and pan evaporation). A hydrologic model using MIKE21 was constructed to measure the change in streamflow and subsequent lake level as a result of changes in both land use and climate. Results have demonstrated the drop in water level from

  20. Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Charlie; Robertson, Franklin; Molod, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of

  1. An analysis of factors that lead to better learning in an integrated and interdisciplinary course on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, D. E.; Lyford, M.; Schmidt, L. O.; Bowles-Terry, M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change education presents many challenges to college educators due to the interdisciplinary nature of the issue as well as the social and political context and implications. This presents multiple barriers to learning for the student, both because it is difficult to address all scientific components in one course, and because many students have strong preconceived feelings or beliefs about climate change. A further barrier to learning for non-science majors is that very often the number of required science courses is low and a highly complex issue such as climate change is difficult to address in introductory science courses. To attempt to address these issues a course for non-science majors, Life Science 1002, Discovering Science, at the University of Wyoming was created as an interdisciplinary and integrated science course that includes a lecture component as well as weekly lab and discussion sections. Our previous work has shown a clear change in the reference sources used by non-science majors when referring to complex topics; namely, students increase their use of scientific journals when they are shown how to use scientific journals and students also report a correlated decrease in non-peer reviewed sources (ie, radio, newspapers, TV). We seek to expand on this work by using pre- and post-topic student surveys in the course at the University of Wyoming to directly measure student performance in different components of the course. The course has enrollment between 120 and 130 students, with nearly equal distribution between grade levels and a wide sampling of non-science majors or undeclared majors. For this work we will use a non-quantitative survey of students to find out which part of the course (lecture, lab or discussion) is most effective for student learning. Further, quantitative analysis of which factors of the student body (class standing, major, gender, background and personal beliefs) will be correlated to help predict who achieved the best

  2. Determining the climate impact of the German government's Integrated Energy and Climate Programme (IEKP) and proposing a plan to continuously monitor its climate impact. Work package 2. Development of monitoring tools for the Integrated Energy and Climate Programme (IEKP); Ermittlung der Klimaschutzwirkung des Integrierten Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramms der Bundesregierung IEKP und Vorschlag fuer ein Konzept zur kontinuierlichen Ueberpruefung der Klimaschutzwirkung des IEKP. Arbeitspaket 2. Entwicklung eines Monitoringkonzepts fuer das Integrierte Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramm (IEKP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doll, Claus; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Fleiter, Tobias [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung, Karlsruhe (DE)] (and others)

    2012-02-15

    Since November 2010, there exist an obligation to evaluate the effects of the integrated energy and climate program (IEKP) by means of a regular monitoring in order to check the validity of the instruments. With this in mind, the authors of the contribution under consideration at first report on the basic structure of the monitoring plan. Subsequently, 22 measures of this concept are presented.

  3. The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total

  4. Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

    2016-01-01

    Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

  5. The Southern Ocean ecosystem under multiple climate change stresses--an integrated circumpolar assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutt, Julian; Bertler, Nancy; Bracegirdle, Thomas J; Buschmann, Alexander; Comiso, Josefino; Hosie, Graham; Isla, Enrique; Schloss, Irene R; Smith, Craig R; Tournadre, Jean; Xavier, José C

    2015-04-01

    A quantitative assessment of observed and projected environmental changes in the Southern Ocean (SO) with a potential impact on the marine ecosystem shows: (i) large proportions of the SO are and will be affected by one or more climate change processes; areas projected to be affected in the future are larger than areas that are already under environmental stress, (ii) areas affected by changes in sea-ice in the past and likely in the future are much larger than areas affected by ocean warming. The smallest areas (Changes in iceberg impact resulting from further collapse of ice-shelves can potentially affect large parts of shelf and ephemerally in the off-shore regions. However, aragonite undersaturation (acidification) might become one of the biggest problems for the Antarctic marine ecosystem by affecting almost the entire SO. Direct and indirect impacts of various environmental changes to the three major habitats, sea-ice, pelagic and benthos and their biota are complex. The areas affected by environmental stressors range from 33% of the SO for a single stressor, 11% for two and 2% for three, to changes, and together cover almost 86% of the SO ecosystem. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Climate effect of an integrated wheat production and bioenergy system with Low Temperature Circulating Fluidized Bed gasifier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sigurjonsson, Hafthor Ægir; Elmegaard, Brian; Clausen, Lasse Røngaard; Ahrenfeldt, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Wheat straw removal from agricultural system has considerable GWP effect. • Changing the carbon conv. in the gasifier to 0.8–0.86 mitigates those effects. • Considerable difference is between sequestration potential of straw and biochar. • Lowering the carbon conversion improves GWP, but depends on subst. technology. - Abstract: When removing biomass residues from the agriculture for bioenergy utilization, the nutrients and carbon stored within these “residual resources” are removed as-well. To mitigate these issues the energy industry must try to conserve and not destroy the nutrients. The paper analyses a novel integration between the agricultural system and the energy system through the Low Temperature Circulating Fluidized Bed (LT-CFB) gasifier from the perspective of wheat grain production and electricity generation using wheat straw, where the effects of removing the straw from the agricultural system are assessed along with the effects of recycling the nutrients and carbon back to the agricultural system. The methods used to assess the integration was Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) with IPCC’s 2013 100 year global warming potential (GWP) as impact assessment method. The boundary was set from cradle to gate with two different functional units, kg grain and kW h electricity produced in Zealand, Denmark. Two cases were used in the analysis: 1. nutrient balances are regulated by mineral fertilization and 2. the nutrient balances are regulated by yield. The analysis compare three scenarios of gasifier operation based on carbon conversion to two references, no straw removal and straw combustion. The results show that the climate effect of removing the straws are mitigated by the carbon soil sequestration with biochar, and electricity and district heat substitution. Maximum biochar production outperforms maximum heat and power generation for most substituted electricity and district heating scenarios. Irrespective of the substituted

  7. Linking Climate Change Education through the Integration of a Kite-Borne Remote Sensing System: Linking Climate Change Education and Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yichun; Henry, Andy; Bydlowski, David; Musial, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    A majority of secondary science teachers are found to include the topic of climate change in their courses. However, teachers informally and sporadically discuss climate change and students rarely understand the underlying scientific concepts. The project team developed an innovative pedagogical approach, in which teachers and students learn…

  8. Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

  9. Annual performance of building-integrated photovoltaic/water-heating system for warm climate application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chow, T.T.; Chan, A.L.S.; Fong, K.F.; Lin, Z.; He, W.; Ji, J.

    2009-01-01

    A building-integrated photovoltaic/water-heating (BiPVW) system is able to generate higher energy output per unit collector area than the conventional solar systems. Through computer simulation with energy models developed for this integrative solar system in Hong Kong, the results showed that the photovoltaic/water-heating (PVW) system has economic advantages over the conventional photovoltaic (PV) installation. The system thermal performance under natural water circulation was found better than the pump-circulation mode. For a specific BiPVW system at a vertical wall of a fully air-conditioned building and with collectors equipped with flat-box-type thermal absorber and polycrystalline silicon cells, the year-round thermal and cell conversion efficiencies were found respectively 37.5% and 9.39% under typical Hong Kong weather conditions. The overall heat transmission through the PVW wall is reduced to 38% of the normal building facade. When serving as a water pre-heating system, the economical payback period was estimated around 14 years. This greatly enhances the PV market opportunities. (author)

  10. Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2) (External Review Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change mod...

  11. EDITORIAL: Siberia Integrated Regional Study: multidisciplinary investigations of the dynamic relationship between the Siberian environment and global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, E. P.; Vaganov, E. A.

    2010-03-01

    This is an editorial overview of the Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS), which is a large-scale investigation of ongoing and future environmental change in Siberia and its relationship to global processes, approaches, existing challenges and future direction. Introduction The SIRS is a mega-project within the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which coordinates interdisciplinary, national and international activities in Northern Eurasia that follow the Earth System Science Program (ESSP) approach. Under the direction of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP), SIRS is one of the Integrated Regional Studies (IRS) that aims to investigate environmental change in Siberia under the current environment of global change, and the potential impact on Earth system dynamics [1]. The regions of interest are those that may function as 'choke or switch points' for the global Earth system, where changes in regional biophysical, biogeochemical and anthropogenic components may have significant consequences for the Earth system at the global scale. Siberia is a large and significant region that may compel change [2]. Regional consequences of global warming (e.g. anomalous increases in cold season temperatures) have already been documented for Siberia [3]. This result is also supported by climate modeling results for the 20th-22nd centuries [4]. Future climatic change threatens Siberia with the shift of permafrost boundaries northward, dramatic changes in land cover (redistribution among boreal forest, wetlands, tundra, and steppe zones often precipitated by fire regime change) and the entire hydrological regime of the territory [5-8]. These processes feed back to and influence climate dynamics through the exchange of energy, water, greenhouse gases and aerosols [9]. Even though there have been a handful of national and international projects focused on the Siberian environment, scientists have minimal knowledge about the processes

  12. CIELO-A GIS integrated model for climatic and water balance simulation in islands environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azevedo, E. B.; Pereira, L. S.

    2003-04-01

    The model CIELO (acronym for "Clima Insular à Escala Local") is a physically based model that simulates the climatic variables in an island using data from a single synoptic reference meteorological station. The reference station "knows" its position in the orographic and dynamic regime context. The domain of computation is a GIS raster grid parameterised with a digital elevation model (DEM). The grid is oriented following the direction of the air masses circulation through a specific algorithm named rotational terrain model (RTM). The model consists of two main sub-models. One, relative to the advective component simulation, assumes the Foehn effect to reproduce the dynamic and thermodynamic processes occurring when an air mass moves through the island orographic obstacle. This makes possible to simulate the air temperature, air humidity, cloudiness and precipitation as influenced by the orography along the air displacement. The second concerns the radiative component as affected by the clouds of orographic origin and by the shadow produced by the relief. The initial state parameters are computed starting from the reference meteorological station across the DEM transept until the sea level at the windward side. Then, starting from the sea level, the model computes the local scale meteorological parameters according to the direction of the air displacement, which is adjusted with the RTM. The air pressure, temperature and humidity are directly calculated for each cell in the computational grid, while several algorithms are used to compute the cloudiness, net radiation, evapotranspiration, and precipitation. The model presented in this paper has been calibrated and validated using data from some meteorological stations and a larger number of rainfall stations located at various elevations in the Azores Islands.

  13. Integrating malaria surveillance with climate data for outbreak detection and forecasting: the EPIDEMIA system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkord, Christopher L; Liu, Yi; Mihretie, Abere; Gebrehiwot, Teklehaymanot; Awoke, Worku; Bayabil, Estifanos; Henebry, Geoffrey M; Kassa, Gebeyaw T; Lake, Mastewal; Wimberly, Michael C

    2017-02-23

    Early indication of an emerging malaria epidemic can provide an opportunity for proactive interventions. Challenges to the identification of nascent malaria epidemics include obtaining recent epidemiological surveillance data, spatially and temporally harmonizing this information with timely data on environmental precursors, applying models for early detection and early warning, and communicating results to public health officials. Automated web-based informatics systems can provide a solution to these problems, but their implementation in real-world settings has been limited. The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system was designed and implemented to integrate disease surveillance with environmental monitoring in support of operational malaria forecasting in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. A co-design workshop was held with computer scientists, epidemiological modelers, and public health partners to develop an initial list of system requirements. Subsequent updates to the system were based on feedback obtained from system evaluation workshops and assessments conducted by a steering committee of users in the public health sector. The system integrated epidemiological data uploaded weekly by the Amhara Regional Health Bureau with remotely-sensed environmental data freely available from online archives. Environmental data were acquired and processed automatically by the EASTWeb software program. Additional software was developed to implement a public health interface for data upload and download, harmonize the epidemiological and environmental data into a unified database, automatically update time series forecasting models, and generate formatted reports. Reporting features included district-level control charts and maps summarizing epidemiological indicators of emerging malaria outbreaks, environmental risk factors, and forecasts of future malaria risk. Successful implementation and

  14. Integration of agriculture in policies of mitigation of climate changes. Collection of international experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandaele, Diane; Martin, Sarah; Larbodiere, Ludovic; Portet, Fabienne; Marrel, Solenn

    2012-03-01

    After having indicated some key figures about France and the European Union (population, surface, levels and objectives of greenhouse gas emissions, share of the main sectors in greenhouse gas emissions), this document reports the study of innovative policies implemented by different countries (New-Zealand, Australia, United States and Canada, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Germany and Brazil) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural sector. These policies correspond to an integration of agriculture into the carbon market, a participation of landowners to the carbon market, a use of agriculture as a compensatory activity, a reduction of emissions by the milk sector, an energy independence, a reduction of CO 2 and CH 4 emissions and a diversification of agriculture while supporting methanation, or a program for a low carbon agriculture

  15. Integrating biomass, sulphate and sea-salt aerosol responses into a microphysical chemical parcel model: implications for climate studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, S; Smith, M H; Rap, A

    2007-11-15

    Aerosols are known to influence significantly the radiative budget of the Earth. Although the direct effect (whereby aerosols scatter and absorb solar and thermal infrared radiation) has a large perturbing influence on the radiation budget, the indirect effect (whereby aerosols modify the microphysical and hence the radiative properties and amounts of clouds) poses a greater challenge to climate modellers. This is because aerosols undergo chemical and physical changes while in the atmosphere, notably within clouds, and are removed largely by precipitation. The way in which aerosols are processed by clouds depends on the type, abundance and the mixing state of the aerosols concerned. A parametrization with sulphate and sea-salt aerosol has been successfully integrated within the Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM). The results of this combined parametrization indicate a significantly reduced role, compared with previous estimates, for sulphate aerosol in cloud droplet nucleation and, consequently, in indirect radiative forcing. However, in this bicomponent system, the cloud droplet number concentration, N(d) (a crucial parameter that is used in GCMs for radiative transfer calculations), is a smoothly varying function of the sulphate aerosol loading. Apart from sea-salt and sulphate aerosol particles, biomass aerosol particles are also present widely in the troposphere. We find that biomass smoke can significantly perturb the activation and growth of both sulphate and sea-salt particles. For a fixed salt loading, N(d) increases linearly with modest increases in sulphate and smoke masses, but significant nonlinearities are observed at higher non-sea-salt mass loadings. This non-intuitive N(d) variation poses a fresh challenge to climate modellers.

  16. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  17. Integrating climate change mitigation, adaptation, communication and education strategies in Matanzas Province, Cuba: A Citizen Science Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Bueno, R. A.; Byrne, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Environment Service Center of Matanzas (ESCM), Cuba and the University of Lethbridge are collaborating on the development of climate mitigation and adaptation programs in Matanzas province. Tourism is the largest industry in Matanzas. Protecting that industry means protecting coastal zones and conservation areas of value to tourism. These same areas are critical to protecting the landscape from global environmental change: enhanced tropical cyclones, flooding, drought and a range of other environmental change impacts. Byrne (2014) adapted a multidisciplinary methodology for climate adaptation capacity definition for the population of Nicaragua. A wide array of adaptive capacity skills and resources were integrated with agricultural crop modeling to define regions of the country where adaptive capacity development were weakest and should be improved. In Matanzas province, we are developing a series of multidisciplinary mitigation and adaptation programs that builds social science and science knowledge to expand capacity within the ESCM and the provincial population. We will be exploring increased risk due to combined watershed and tropical cyclone flooding, stresses on crops, and defining a range of possibilities in shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The program will build ongoing interactions with thousands of Matanzas citizens through site visits carried out by numerous Cuban and visiting students participating in a four-month education semester with a number of Lethbridge and Matanzas faculty. These visits will also provide local citizens with better access to web-based interactions. We will evaluate mitigation and adaptive capacities in three municipalities and some rural areas across the province. Furthermore, we will explore better ways and means to communicate between the research and conservation staff and the larger population of the province.

  18. Integrating science, economics and law into policy: The case of carbon sequestration in climate change policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Kenneth

    Carbon sequestration, the extraction and storage of carbon from the atmosphere by biomass, could potentially provide a cost-effective means to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. The claims on behalf of carbon sequestration may be inadvertently overstated, however. Several key observations emerge from this study. First, although carbon sequestration studies all report results in terms of dollars per ton, the definition of that term varies significantly, meaning that the results of various analyses can not be meaningfully compared. Second, when carbon sequestration is included in an energy-economy model of climate change policy, it appears that carbon sequestration could play a major, if not dominant role in a national carbon emission abatement program, reducing costs of emissions stabilization by as much as 80 percent, saving tens of billions of dollars per year. However, the results are very dependant upon landowners' perceived risk. Studies may also have overstated the potential for carbon sequestration because they have not considered the implementation process. This study demonstrates that three factors will reduce the cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration. First, the implementation costs associated with measurement and governance of the government-private sector relation are higher than in the case of carbon source control. Second, legal constraints limit the range of instruments that the government can use to induce private landowners to expand their carbon sinks. The government will likely have to pay private parties to expand their sinks, or undertake direct government production. In either case, additional revenues will be required, introducing social costs associated with excess burden. Third, because of the very long time involved in developing carbon sinks (up to several decades) the government may not be able to make credible commitments against exactions of one type or another that would effectively reduce the value of private sector investments

  19. A relationship between regional and global GCM surface air temperature changes and its application to an integrated model of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonas, M.; Ganopolski, A.V.; Krabec, J.; Olendrzyski, K.; Petoukhov, V.K.

    1994-01-01

    This study outlines the advantages of combining the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse affect (IMAGE, an integrated quick turnaround, global model of climate change) with a spatially detailed General Circulation Model (GCM), in this case developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) in Hamburg. The outcome is a modified IMAGE model that simulates the MPI GCM projections of annual surface air temperature change globally and regionally. IMAGE thus provides policy analysts with integrated and regional information about global warming for a great range of policy-dependent greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenarios, while preserving its quick turnaround time. With the help of IMAGE various regional temperature response simulations have been produced. None of these simulations has yet been performed by any GCM. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming. In this study the authors deal only with a simplified subsystem of such an integrated model of climate change, which begins with policy options, neglects the societal component in the greenhouse gas accounting tool, and ends with temperature change as the only output of the climate model. The model the authors employ is the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE, version 1.0), which was developed by the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). IMAGE is a scientifically based, parameterized simulation policy model designed to calculate the historical and future effects of greenhouse gases on global surface and surface air temperatures and sea-level rise

  20. Determining the climate impact of the German government's Integrated Energy and Climate Programme (IEKP) and proposing a plan to continuously monitor its climate impact. Work package 1. Qualitative assessment of the instruments in an Integrated Energy and Climate Programme (IEKP); Ermittlung der Klimaschutzwirkung des Integrierten Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramms der Bundesregierung IEKP und Vorschlag fuer ein Konzept zur kontinuierlichen Ueberpruefung der Klimaschutzwirkung des IEKP. Arbeitspaket 1. Qualitative Einschaetzung der Instrumente im Integrierten Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramm (IEKP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doll, Claus; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Fleiter, Tobias [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung, Karlsruhe (DE)] (and others)

    2012-02-15

    In August 2007, the key elements for an integrated energy and climate program (IECP) were adopted within the Meseberg resolutions. The implementation of the Meseberg resolutions were performed in three packages primarily including amending laws as well as support measures. The authors of the contribution under consideration compare the climate protection instruments realized by IECP with the presentations in the IECP. This comparison is based on an analysis of documents and research projects in the periphery of the IECP and on a survey of target groups and other relevant actors on the effectiveness of the IECP mechanisms. The result of this comparison is summarized in form of 27 measures.

  1. Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

    2011-01-01

    The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little

  2. Case study Sylt - Consequences and integrated assessment of climate change. Final report; Klimaaenderung und Kueste. Fallstudie Sylt - Integrative Analyse und Bewertung der Folgen von Klimaaenderungen. Endbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraenzle, O.; Sterr, H.; Daschkeit, A.

    2001-05-01

    This final report deals with the structure of the 'case study Sylt' against the background of climate change and possible consequences. In cooperation with the other projects of the case study an instrument is developed which maintains interdisciplinary communication and cooperation. First the 'System Sylt' is described to identify and specify the relevant aspects of functional relationships between the natural and the social system. The focal points are (1) the first-order impacts of climate change, (2) the potential ecological changes in the near future and (3) the image of the North-Sea island Sylt. With regard to the image of Sylt we find some discrepancies existing between a statical respectively a dynamical view; these discrepancies are inherent parts of the future development. All results are seen in the context of 'Integrated Coastal Zone Management' (ICZM) to derive general and specific recommendations for political action and further research. (orig.) [German] Vor dem Hintergrund von Annahmen bezueglich der zukuenftigen klimatischen Entwicklung werden die Konzeption sowie die Vorgehensweise der integrativen Analyse im Rahmen der Fallstudie Sylt dargestellt. Unter Anbindung an das Sylt-GIS wird ein Instrument entwickelt und erprobt, das die (bislang seltene) fachuebergreifende Analyse von Klimafolgen unterstuetzt. Diese muendet zunaechst in eine Darstellung des 'Systems Sylt' auf der Grundlage der wichtigsten Prozesse und Randbedingungen. Die auf dieser Basis identifizierten Kernberichte des 'Systems Sylt' werden in einem weiteren exemplarisch und unter Einbezug des in den disziplinaeren Teilvorhaben der Fallstudie erarbeiteten Wissens einer vertiefenden Analyse unterzogen. Dabei wird erstens auf den Bereich der Folgen eines moeglichen Klimawandels eingegangen, zweitens auf vergangene und zukuenftig moegliche oekologische Veraenderungen und drittens auf das Sylt-Image. Durch eine detailliertere Analyse des

  3. Case study Sylt - Consequences and integrated assessment of climate change. Final report; Klimaaenderung und Kueste. Fallstudie Sylt - Integrative Analyse und Bewertung der Folgen von Klimaaenderungen. Endbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraenzle, O; Sterr, H; Daschkeit, A

    2001-05-01

    This final report deals with the structure of the 'case study Sylt' against the background of climate change and possible consequences. In cooperation with the other projects of the case study an instrument is developed which maintains interdisciplinary communication and cooperation. First the 'System Sylt' is described to identify and specify the relevant aspects of functional relationships between the natural and the social system. The focal points are (1) the first-order impacts of climate change, (2) the potential ecological changes in the near future and (3) the image of the North-Sea island Sylt. With regard to the image of Sylt we find some discrepancies existing between a statical respectively a dynamical view; these discrepancies are inherent parts of the future development. All results are seen in the context of 'Integrated Coastal Zone Management' (ICZM) to derive general and specific recommendations for political action and further research. (orig.) [German] Vor dem Hintergrund von Annahmen bezueglich der zukuenftigen klimatischen Entwicklung werden die Konzeption sowie die Vorgehensweise der integrativen Analyse im Rahmen der Fallstudie Sylt dargestellt. Unter Anbindung an das Sylt-GIS wird ein Instrument entwickelt und erprobt, das die (bislang seltene) fachuebergreifende Analyse von Klimafolgen unterstuetzt. Diese muendet zunaechst in eine Darstellung des 'Systems Sylt' auf der Grundlage der wichtigsten Prozesse und Randbedingungen. Die auf dieser Basis identifizierten Kernberichte des 'Systems Sylt' werden in einem weiteren exemplarisch und unter Einbezug des in den disziplinaeren Teilvorhaben der Fallstudie erarbeiteten Wissens einer vertiefenden Analyse unterzogen. Dabei wird erstens auf den Bereich der Folgen eines moeglichen Klimawandels eingegangen, zweitens auf vergangene und zukuenftig moegliche oekologische Veraenderungen und drittens auf das Sylt-Image. Durch eine detailliertere Analyse des Sylt-Image kann aufgezeigt werden, dass sich eine

  4. An on-line interface for integrated modeling of wildlife, climate, and society for strategic planning for the Sky Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron J. Orr; Wolfgang Grunberg; Amanda B. Cockerham; Anne Y. Thwaits; Heather S. Severson; Noah M. D. Lerman; Rachel M. Miller; Michael Haseltine; Barbara J. Morehouse; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Stephen R. Yool; Thomas W. Swetnam; Gary L. Christopherson

    2005-01-01

    The demand for strategic planning tools that account for climate and human influences on wildfire hazard is growing. In response, the University of Arizona, through an EPA STAR Grant has undertaken interdisciplinary research to characterize the human and climate dimensions of wildfire. The resulting Fire-Climate-Society (FCS-1) prototype model developed for Sky Islands...

  5. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

  6. Using AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment Methods to Evaluate Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Smart Agricultural Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antle, John M.; Homann-Kee Tui, S.; Descheemaeker, K.K.E.; Masikati, Patricia; Valdivia, Roberto O.

    2018-01-01

    The predicted effects of climate change call for a multi-dimensional method to assess the performance of various agricultural systems across economic, environmental and social dimensions. Climate smart agriculture (CSA) recognizes that the three goals of climate adaptation, mitigation and resilience

  7. Assessment of adaptability of zebu cattle (Bos indicus) breeds in two different climatic conditions: using cytogenetic techniques on genome integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Anil; Waiz, Syma Ashraf; Sridhar Goud, T; Tonk, R K; Grewal, Anita; Singh, S V; Yadav, B R; Upadhyay, R C

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the genome integrity so as to assess the adaptability of three breeds of indigenous cattle reared under arid and semi-arid regions of Rajasthan (Bikaner) and Haryana (Karnal) India. The cattle were of homogenous group (same age and sex) of indigenous breeds viz. Sahiwal, Tharparkar and Kankrej. A total of 100 animals were selected for this study from both climatic conditions. The sister chromatid exchanges (SCE's), chromosomal gaps and chromatid breaks were observed in metaphase plates of chromosome preparations obtained from in vitro culture of peripheral blood lymphocytes. The mean number of breaks and gaps in Sahiwal and Tharparkar of semi-arid zone were 8.56 ± 3.16, 6.4 ± 3.39 and 8.72 ± 2.04, 3.52 ± 6.29, respectively. Similarly, the mean number of breaks and gaps in Tharparkar and Kankrej cattle of arid zone were 5.26 ± 1.76, 2.74 ± 1.76 and 5.24 ± 1.84, 2.5 ± 1.26, respectively. The frequency of SCEs in chromosomes was found significantly higher (P  0.05) was observed in the same zone. The analysis of frequency of CAs and SCEs revealed significant effects of environmental conditions on the genome integrity of animals, thereby indicating an association with their adaptability.

  8. Trading for climate without trading off on the environment. An Australian perspective on integration between emissions trading and other environmental objectives and programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, David

    2003-12-01

    With policy and legislative developments for the mitigation of climate change advancing apace, there has been little consideration given to the interactions, both positive and negative, that such instruments are likely to have with other forms of existing environmental management. Australia in particular has a number of environmental problems such as dryland salinity, biodiversity loss and general land management that will be directly impacted by climate change, and the instruments used to try and control its impacts. This paper considers the opportunities and arguments for integration among environmental schemes, using examples from both Australian and international experiences to date

  9. Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emerek, Ruth

    2004-01-01

    Bidraget diskuterer de forskellige intergrationsopfattelse i Danmark - og hvad der kan forstås ved vellykket integration......Bidraget diskuterer de forskellige intergrationsopfattelse i Danmark - og hvad der kan forstås ved vellykket integration...

  10. Integrated climate and land change research to improve decision-making and resource management in Southern Africa: The SASSCAL approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmschrot, J.; Olwoch, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    The ability of countries in southern Africa to jointly respond to climate challenges with scientifically informed and evidence-based actions and policy decisions remains low due to limited scientific research capacity and infrastructure. The Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL; www.sasscal.org) addresses this gap by implementing a high-level framework to guide research and innovation investments in climate change and adaptive land management interventions in Southern Africa. With a strong climate service component as cross-cutting topic, SASSCAL's focus is to improve the understanding of climate and land management change impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Southern Africa. The paper presents a variety of SASSCAL driven activities which contribute to better understand climate and long-term environmental change dynamics at various temporal and spatial scales in Southern Afrika and how these activities are linked to support research and decision-making to optimize agricultural practices as well as sustainable environmental and water resources management. To provide consistent and reliable climate information for Southern Africa, SASSCAL offers various climate services ranging from real-time climate observation across the region utilizing the SASSCAL WeatherNet to regional climate change analysis and modelling efforts at seasonal-to-decadal timescales using climate data from various sources. SASSCAL also offers the current state of the environment in terms of recent data on changes in the environment that are necessary for setting appropriate adaptation strategies . The paper will further demonstrate how these services are utilized for interdisciplinary research on the impact of climate change on natural resources and socio-economic development in the SASSCAL countries and how this knowledge can be effectively used to mitigate and adapt to climate change by informed decision-making from

  11. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  12. Determining the climate impact of the German government's Integrated Energy and Climate Programme (IEKP) and proposing a plan to continuously monitor its climate impact. Work package 3. Description of monitoring tools for the Integrated Energy and Climate Programme (IEKP); Ermittlung der Klimaschutzwirkung des Integrierten Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramms der Bundesregierung IEKP und Vorschlag fuer ein Konzept zur kontinuierlichen Ueberpruefung der Klimaschutzwirkung des IEKP. Arbeitspaket 3. Beschreibung des Monitoringtools fuer das Integrierte Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramm (IEKP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doll, Claus; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Fleiter, Tobias [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung, Karlsruhe (DE)] (and others)

    2012-02-15

    The reports on the Work Packages 1 and 2 describe the development of the monitoring concept for the individual measures of the integrated energy and climate program (IEKP). In the third work package, the monitoring concept was developed in an Excel tool presenting the actual output of the third work package The authors of the contribution under consideration describe the functionality of this Excel tool.

  13. Visualization of uncertainty and ensemble data: Exploration of climate modeling and weather forecast data with integrated ViSUS-CDAT systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, Kristin; Pascucci, Valerio; Johhson, Chris; Wilson, Andrew; Bremer, Peer-Timo; Williams, Dean; Doutriaux, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Climate scientists and meteorologists are working towards a better understanding of atmospheric conditions and global climate change. To explore the relationships present in numerical predictions of the atmosphere, ensemble datasets are produced that combine time- and spatially-varying simulations generated using multiple numeric models, sampled input conditions, and perturbed parameters. These data sets mitigate as well as describe the uncertainty present in the data by providing insight into the effects of parameter perturbation, sensitivity to initial conditions, and inconsistencies in model outcomes. As such, massive amounts of data are produced, creating challenges both in data analysis and in visualization. This work presents an approach to understanding ensembles by using a collection of statistical descriptors to summarize the data, and displaying these descriptors using variety of visualization techniques which are familiar to domain experts. The resulting techniques are integrated into the ViSUS/Climate Data and Analysis Tools (CDAT) system designed to provide a directly accessible, complex visualization framework to atmospheric researchers.

  14. Air quality: how to assess air quality management policies on a short and on a long term? The integration of the climate factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prevot, Aurelie

    2014-01-01

    This document presents the activities and works performed by the INERIS Institute in the development of tools for the assessment of air quality management policies including the climate factor. This comprises the development of simulations within the frame of the SALUT'AIR project, and also within the frame of the reviewing of the European policy on air quality (directives 2008/50/CE on ambient air quality and 2001/81/CE on national limits of emissions of some pollutants). The CHIMERE model of chemistry and transport is one of these tools. Simulations are performed to analyse the impact of scenarios of air quality management on a short term, in terms of pollutant emissions, pollutant concentration, and particle concentrations. The integration of a climate factor is justified by the existence of interactions between climate and air quality

  15. Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

    2017-08-01

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

  16. Integrating Historic Agronomic and Policy Lessons with New Technologies to Drive Farmer Decisions for Farm and Climate: The Case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William L. Pan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate-friendly best management practices for mitigating and adapting to climate change (cfBMPs include changes in crop rotation, soil management and resource use. Determined largely by precipitation gradients, specific agroecological systems in the inland Pacific Northwestern U.S. (iPNW feature different practices across the region. Historically, these farming systems have been economically productive, but at the cost of high soil erosion rates and organic matter depletion, making them win-lose situations. Agronomic, sociological, political and economic drivers all influence cropping system innovations. Integrated, holistic conservation systems also need to be identified to address climate change by integrating cfBMPs that provide win-win benefits for farmer and environment. We conclude that systems featuring short-term improvements in farm economics, market diversification, resource efficiency and soil health will be most readily adopted by farmers, thereby simultaneously addressing longer term challenges including climate change. Specific “win-win scenarios” are designed for different iPNW production zones delineated by water availability. The cfBMPs include reduced tillage and residue management, organic carbon (C recycling, precision nitrogen (N management and crop rotation diversification and intensification. Current plant breeding technologies have provided new cultivars of canola and pea that can diversify system agronomics and markets. These agronomic improvements require associated shifts in prescriptive, precision N and weed management. The integrated cfBMP systems we describe have the potential for reducing system-wide greenhouse gas (GHG emissions by increasing soil C storage, N use efficiency (NUE and by production of biofuels. Novel systems, even if they are economically competitive, can come with increased financial risk to producers, necessitating government support (e.g., subsidized crop insurance to promote adoption

  17. Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermid, Sonali P.; Dileepkumar, Guntuku; Murthy, K. M. Dakshina; Nedumaran, S.; Singh, Piara; Srinivasa, Chukka; Gangwar, B.; Subash, N.; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Zubair, Lareef; hide

    2015-01-01

    South Asia's growing population. In order to assess the future of food and livelihood security across South Asia, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has undertaken integrated climate-crop-economic assessments of the impact of climate change on food security and poverty in South Asia, encompassing Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. AgMIP has funded, on a competitive basis, four South Asian regional research teams (RRTs) and one South Asian coordination team (CT) to undertake climate-crop-economic integrated assessments of food security for many districts in each of these countries, with the goal of characterizing the state of food security and poverty across the region, and projecting how these are subject to change under future climate change conditions.

  18. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pulido-Velazquez; S. Peña-Haro; A. Garcia-Prats; A. F. Mocholi-Almudever; L. Henriquez-Dole; H. Macian-Sorribes; A. Lopez-Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate an...

  19. Integration of observations, modelling approaches and remote sensing to address ecosystem response to climate change and disturbance in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falge, Eva; Brümmer, Christian

    2017-04-01

    African societies face growing global change challenges and several associated risks. These include rapidly changing patterns of human settlements and an intensified use of ecosystem services. At the same time, climate variability and change are amplifying stress on the functionality of ecosystems and their critical role as important greenhouse gas sinks. A recent review (Valentini et al. 2014) attests Africa a key role in the global carbon cycle contributing an absolute annual carbon sink (-0.61 ± 0.58 Pg C yr-1), which may partly been offset through understudied emissions of CH4 and N2O. The net sink strength is characterized by a substantial sub-regional spatial variability due to biome distribution and degree of anthropogenic influences. 52% of the global carbon emissions by fire are due to African wildfires, which contribute with 1.03 ± 0.22 Pg C yr-1 twice the emissions caused by land use change in Africa (0.51 ± 0.10 Pg C yr-1). Moreover, a quarter of the interannual variability of the global carbon budget is due to the year-to-year variation (± 0.5 Pg C yr-1) of carbon fluxes on the African continent. Among the archetypes to address the above-mentioned challenges in an integrated and multidisciplinary way are better data bases which serve as constraints for atmospheric data and models, thorough attempts to reduce GHG flux uncertainties, or enhanced understanding of climatic, hydrological, and socio-economic drivers of temporal and spatial variability of GHG balances. Some examples from the ARS-AfricaE project that will serve to illustrate the wide range of such activities include: Measurements of CO2 exchange, ecosystem structure and eco-physiological properties at paired sites with natural and managed vegetation, Further development and application of the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model 2 (aDGVM2) to investigate the influence of different atmospheric CO2 scenarios on carbon pools and fluxes of a selected ecosystem in Skukuza, Kruger National

  20. [Integrity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez Rodríguez, Rafael Ángel

    2014-01-01

    To say that someone possesses integrity is to claim that that person is almost predictable about responses to specific situations, that he or she can prudentially judge and to act correctly. There is a closed interrelationship between integrity and autonomy, and the autonomy rests on the deeper moral claim of all humans to integrity of the person. Integrity has two senses of significance for medical ethic: one sense refers to the integrity of the person in the bodily, psychosocial and intellectual elements; and in the second sense, the integrity is the virtue. Another facet of integrity of the person is la integrity of values we cherish and espouse. The physician must be a person of integrity if the integrity of the patient is to be safeguarded. The autonomy has reduced the violations in the past, but the character and virtues of the physician are the ultimate safeguard of autonomy of patient. A field very important in medicine is the scientific research. It is the character of the investigator that determines the moral quality of research. The problem arises when legitimate self-interests are replaced by selfish, particularly when human subjects are involved. The final safeguard of moral quality of research is the character and conscience of the investigator. Teaching must be relevant in the scientific field, but the most effective way to teach virtue ethics is through the example of the a respected scientist.

  1. Evaluation of Integrated Air Pollution and Climate Change Policies: Case Study in the Thermal Power Sector in Chongqing City, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Zhou

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The cost of environmental degradation has already had a dramatic impact on the Chinese economy. In order to curb these trends, the government of China has introduced stricter regulations. With this in mind, it is important to quantify the potential co-benefits of introducing air pollution and climate change mitigation policies. This study proposes relevant scenarios ranging from the current trends (baseline to the introduction of different policies in the thermal power sector, including different carbon tax rates, technology innovation promotion, and technology cost reduction methods. We aim to comparatively evaluate the impact of the proposed policies within the thermal sector and within the entire socio-economic system. To this end, we used a dynamic input–output (I-O model, into which high-efficiency technologies were incorporated as new thermal power industries in order to estimate policy impact during the time period 2010–2025. The results of this study demonstrated that the introduction of one or more of the following policies: carbon taxes, subsidies, technology innovation, and technology cost reduction, has no notable impact on the environment or the economy without the implementation of environment regulations. In contrast, the strong support of a government subsidy coupled with strict environmental regulations will promote technological innovation, for example through the natural gas combined cycle (NGCC and the integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC. Our study also showed that the reduction of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions as well as energy consumption would curb economic development to a certain extent. Taking this into consideration, innovation must also be promoted in other economic sectors. This research provides a strong reference for policy-makers to identify effective polices under different types of environmental regulations.

  2. Bridging the Gap between Earth Science and Students: An Integrated Approach using NASA Earth Science Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alston, Erica J.; Chambers, Lin H.; Phelps, Carrie S.; Oots, Penny C.; Moore, Susan W.; Diones, Dennis D.

    2007-01-01

    Under the auspices of the Department of Education's No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act, beginning in 2007 students will be tested in the science area. There are many techniques that educators can employ to teach students science. The use of authentic materials or in this case authentic data can be an engaging alternative to more traditional methods. An Earth science classroom is a great place for the integration of authentic data and science concepts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has a wealth of high quality Earth science data available to the general public. For instance, the Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) at NASA s Langley Research Center houses over 800 Earth science data sets related to Earth's radiation budget, clouds, aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. These data sets were produced to increase academic understanding of the natural and anthropogenic factors that influence global climate; however, a major hurdle in using authentic data is the size of the data and data documentation. To facilitate the use of these data sets for educational purposes, the Mentoring and inquirY using NASA Data on Atmospheric and Earth science for Teachers and Amateurs (MY NASA DATA) project has been established to systematically support educational activities at all levels of formal and informal education. The MY NASA DATA project accomplishes this by reducing these large data holdings to microsets that are easily accessible and explored by K-12 educators and students though the project's Web page. MY NASA DATA seeks to ease the difficulty in understanding the jargon-heavy language of Earth science. This manuscript will show how MY NASA DATA provides resources for NCLB implementation in the science area through an overview of the Web site, the different microsets available, the lesson plans and computer tools, and an overview of educational support mechanisms.

  3. Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

    2017-10-01

    Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience

  4. Web-based Data Visualization of the MGClimDeX Climate Model Output: An Integrated Perspective of Climate Change Impact on Natural Resources in Highly Vulnerable Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Rey, J.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Nangini, C.

    2016-12-01

    Earth System Models allow us to understand the interactions between climate and biogeological processes. These models generate a very large amount of data. These data are usually reduced to a few number of static figures shown in highly specialized scientific publications. However, the potential impacts of climate change demand a broader perspective regarding the ways in which climate model results of this kind are disseminated, particularly in the amount and variety of data, and the target audience. This issue is of great importance particularly for scientific projects that seek a large broadcast with different audiences on their key results. The MGClimDeX project, which assesses the climate change impact on La Martinique island in the Lesser Antilles, will provide tools and means to help the key stakeholders -responsible for addressing the critical social, economic, and environmental issues- to take the appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures in order to prevent future risks associated with climate variability and change, and its role on human activities. The MGClimDeX project will do so by using model output and data visualization techniques within the next year, showing the cross-connected impacts of climate change on various sectors (agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, water resources and fisheries). To address this challenge of representing large sets of data from model output, we use back-end data processing and front-end web-based visualization techniques, going from the conventional netCDF model output stored on hub servers to highly interactive web-based data-powered visualizations on browsers. We use the well-known javascript library D3.js extended with DC.js -a dimensional charting library for all the front-end interactive filtering-, in combination with Bokeh, a Python library to synthesize the data, all framed in the essential HTML+CSS scripts. The resulting websites exist as standalone information units or embedded into journals or scientific

  5. Lessons learned while integrating habitat, dispersal, disturbance, and life-history traits into species habitat models under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

    2011-01-01

    We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134...

  6. Regional integrated modelling of climate change impacts on natural resources and resource usage in semi-arid Norhteast Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, Martinus S.; Bronstert, Axel

    2007-01-01

    Semi-arid regions are characterised by a high vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, pronounced climatic variability and often by water scarcity and related social stress. The analysis of the dynamics of natural conditions and the assessment of possible strategies to cope with

  7. Testing a participatory integrated assessment(PIA) approach to select climate change adaptation actions to enhance wetland sustainability: The case of Poyang Lake region in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG; Li; YIN; Yongyuan; DU; De-Bin

    2015-01-01

    The necessity of mainstreaming climate adaptation strategies or policies into natural resource management plans has been recognized by the UNFCCC.The IPCC AR5 report suggests a growing demand for research to provide information for a deeper and more useful understanding of climate adaptation options,and indicates a lack of effective methods to meet this increasing demand of policymakers.In this respect,a participatory integrated assessment(PIA) approach is presented in this paper to provide an effective means to mainstream wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development strategies,and thus to reduce climate vulnerability and to enhance rural community livelihood.The PIA approach includes a series of research activities required to assess climate impacts on wetland ecosystems,and to prioritize adaptation responses.A range of adaptation options that address key aspects of the wetland ecosystem resilience and concerns are evaluated against community based on sustainable development indicators.The PIA approach is able to identify desirable adaptation options which can then be implemented to improve wetland ecosystem health and to enhance regional sustainable development in a changing climate.For illustration purpose,the PIA was applied in a case study in Poyang Lake(PYL) region,a critical wetland and water ecosystem in central China with important international biodiversity linkages,and a locale for key policy experiments with ecosystem rehabilitation.The PIA was used to facilitate the integration of wetland climate change adaptation in rural sustainable development actions with multi-stakeholders participation.In particular,the case shows how the PIA can be designed and implemented to select effective and practical climate change adaptation options to enhance ecosystem services management and to reduce resource use conflicts and rural poverty.Worked in partnership with multi-stakeholders and assisted with a multi-criteria decision making tool

  8. What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez, P.; Blanco, M.; Van Doorslaer, B.; Ramos, F.; Ceglar, A.

    2017-07-01

    Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

  9. What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, P.; Blanco, M.; Van Doorslaer, B.; Ramos, F.; Ceglar, A.

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

  10. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  11. Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1951 to 2050: toward an integrated strategy for climate impacts reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Russo, Aniello; Marincioni, Fausto; Appiotti, Federica

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates consequences and future impacts of climate change on the social and natural systems of the Marche Region (one of the 20 administrative divisions of Italy). This Region, is located in central part of the peninsula and borders the Adriatic Sea on the East and the Apennine mountains on the West. The Region extends for about 60 km E-W, and has a NW-SE coastline of about 170 km, covering a total area of 9366 km2. Multimodel projections over the Marche Regions, on daily, monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation parameters, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km covering a time period from 1951 to 2050. Results detail a significant increase of daily, monthly and seasonal mean temperatures, especially in summer, with anomaly values reaching +3°C after the year 2025, referring to the model CliNo 1981-2010. Mountain areas show higher values of temperature anomalies than coastal ones of approximately 0.5 °C. Concurrently, a widespread decrease of seasonal precipitation appears to affect all seasons, except for autumn. Rainfall decrease and temperature increase could reduce the Region's aquifer recharge and overall availability of hydro resources. These alterations could affect human health, agricultural productivity, forest fires, coastal erosion, algal blooms and water quality. Ongoing analysis of extreme climatological indices (e.g. frequency of maximum daily temperature exceeding comfort thresholds) are expected to quantify such impacts. A first analysis, linking climate change to the hydrologic cycle, studied through the computation of the hydro-climatic intensity index (as defined by Giorgi et al., 2012), suggests for the Marche Region an increase of the intensity of

  12. Only an integrated approach across academia, enterprise, governments, and global agencies can tackle the public health impact of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stordalen, Gunhild A.; Rocklöv, Joacim; Nilsson, Maria; Byass, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Background Despite considerable global attention to the issues of climate change, relatively little priority has been given to the likely effects on human health of current and future changes in the global climate. We identify three major societal determinants that influence the impact of climate change on human health, namely the application of scholarship and knowledge; economic and commercial considerations; and actions of governments and global agencies. Discussion The three major areas are each discussed in terms of the ways in which they facilitate and frustrate attempts to protect human health from the effects of climate change. Academia still pays very little attention to the effects of climate on health in poorer countries. Enterprise is starting to recognise that healthy commerce depends on healthy people, and so climate change presents long-term threats if it compromises health. Governments and international agencies are very active, but often face immovable vested interests in other sectors. Overall, there tends to be too little interaction between the three areas, and this means that potential synergies and co-benefits are not always realised. Conclusion More attention from academia, enterprise, and international agencies needs to be given to the potential threats the climate change presents to human health. However, there needs to also be much closer collaboration between all three areas in order to capitalise on possible synergies that can be achieved between them. PMID:23653920

  13. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

  14. The climate-smart village approach: framework of an integrative strategy for scaling up adaptation options in agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pramod K. Aggarwal

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Increasing weather risks threaten agricultural production systems and food security across the world. Maintaining agricultural growth while minimizing climate shocks is crucial to building a resilient food production system and meeting developmental goals in vulnerable countries. Experts have proposed several technological, institutional, and policy interventions to help farmers adapt to current and future weather variability and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. This paper presents the climate-smart village (CSV approach as a means of performing agricultural research for development that robustly tests technological and institutional options for dealing with climatic variability and climate change in agriculture using participatory methods. It aims to scale up and scale out the appropriate options and draw out lessons for policy makers from local to global levels. The approach incorporates evaluation of climate-smart technologies, practices, services, and processes relevant to local climatic risk management and identifies opportunities for maximizing adaptation gains from synergies across different interventions and recognizing potential maladaptation and trade-offs. It ensures that these are aligned with local knowledge and link into development plans. This paper describes early results in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to illustrate different examples of the CSV approach in diverse agroecological settings. Results from initial studies indicate that the CSV approach has a high potential for scaling out promising climate-smart agricultural technologies, practices, and services. Climate analog studies indicate that the lessons learned at the CSV sites would be relevant to adaptation planning in a large part of global agricultural land even under scenarios of climate change. Key barriers and opportunities for further work are also discussed.

  15. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Baca

    Full Text Available The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of

  16. Planning processes with integrated evaluation of climate and air; Einbindung und Bewertung von Klima und Luft in Plannungsablaeufe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katzschner, L. [Kassel Univ. (Gesamthochschule) (Germany). Fachbereich 13 - Stadt- und Landschaftsplanung

    1997-09-01

    More and more often, plannings require climate statements which are suitable to be considered in the weighing of the different factors. The paper makes climate assessment proposals permitting a qualitative and quantitative judgement. Parameters employed are the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) as well as, increasingly, statements regarding the quality of ventilation. Examples illustrate how space-related planning clues can be derived from climate function maps. The basis for this are climate-geographic surveys (orohydrographic analysis, topographic gradient determination etc.), as well as the analysis of dynamic parameters (air conduction paths and barriers) and thermal parameters (areas warming up excessively, areas of cold and fresh air generation). Linking of these aspects yields a climate function map. It is used to prepare a planning recommendations map which differentiates and evaluates climate-ecological sensitivities. (orig.) [Deutsch] Im Rahmen von Planungsprozessen werden immer haeufiger Klimaaussagen verlangt, die in die Planungsabwaegung Eingang finden koennen. Dazu werden Klimabewertungsvorschlaege fuer eine qualitative und quantitative Beurteilung gemacht. Anwendung finden die bioklimatischen Komplexgroessen und vermehrt Aussagen zur Belueftungsqualitaet. Beispiele verdeutlichen, wie sich aus den Klimafunktionskarten raeumliche Planungshinweise ableiten lassen. Grundlage sind klimageographische Erhebungen (orohydrographische Analyse, topographische Gradientenbestimmung usw.) sowie die Analyse der dynamischen (Luftleitbahnen und Barrieren) und thermischen Parameter (Ueberwaermungsgebiete, Kalt- und Frischluftentstehungsgebiete). In einer Verknuepfung dieser Aspekte wird die Klimafunktionskarte erstellt, aus der die Planungshinweiskarte abgeleitet wird, die klimaoekologische Empfindlichkeiten differenziert und bewertet. (orig.)

  17. General overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI – integrating aerosol research from nano to global scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Simpson

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI. EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a a comprehensive database with a year of observations of the physical, chemical and optical properties of aerosol particles over Europe, (b comprehensive aerosol measurements in four developing countries, (c a database of airborne measurements of aerosols and clouds over Europe during May 2008, (d comprehensive modeling tools to study aerosol processes fron nano to global scale and their effects on climate and air quality. In addition a new Pan-European aerosol emissions inventory was developed and evaluated, a new cluster spectrometer was built and tested in the field and several new aerosol parameterizations and computations modules for chemical transport and global climate models were developed and evaluated. These achievements and related studies have substantially improved our understanding and reduced the uncertainties of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions. The EUCAARI results can be utilized in European and global environmental policy to assess the aerosol impacts and the corresponding abatement strategies.

  18. General overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI)-integrating aerosol research from nano to global scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulmala, M.; Asmi, A.; Lappalainen, H.K.; Baltensperger, U.; Brenguier, J.-L.; Facchini, M.C.; Hansson, H.-C.; Hov, Ø.; O'Dowd, C.D.; Pöschl, U.; Wiedensohler, A.; Boers, R.; Boucher, O.; Leeuw, G. de; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Feichter, J.; Krejci, R.; Laj, P.; Lihavainen, H.; Lohmann, U.; McFiggans, G.; Mentel, T.; Pilinis, C.; Riipinen, I.; Schulz, M.; Stohl, A.; Swietlicki, E.; Vignati, E.; Alves, C.; Amann, M.; Ammann, M.; Arabas, S.; Artaxo, P.; Baars, H.; Beddows, D.C.S.; Bergström, R.; Beukes, J.P.; Bilde, M.; Burkhart, J.F.; Canonaco, F.; Clegg, S.L.; Coe, H.; Crumeyrolle, S.; D'Anna, B.; Decesari, S.; Gilardoni, S.; Fischer, M.; Fjaeraa, A.M.; Fountoukis, C.; George, C.; Gomes, L.; Halloran, P.; Hamburger, T.; Harrison, R.M.; Herrmann, H.; Hoffmann, T.; Hoose, C.; Hu, M.; Hyvärinen, A.; Hõrrak, U.; Iinuma, Y.; Iversen, T.; Josipovic, M.; Kanakidou, M.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.; Kirkevåg, A.; Kiss, G.; Klimont, Z.; Kolmonen, P.; Komppula, M.; Kristjánsson, J.-E.; Laakso, L.; Laaksonen, A.; Labonnote, L.; Lanz, V.A.; Lehtinen, K.E.J.; Rizzo, L.V.; Makkonen, R.; Manninen, H.E.; McMeeking, G.; Merikanto, J.; Minikin, A.; Mirme, S.; Morgan, W.T.; Nemitz, E.; O'Donnell, D.; Panwar, T.S.; Pawlowska, H.; Petzold, A.; Pienaar, J.J.; Pio, C.; Plass-Duelmer, C.; Prévôt, A.S.H.; Pryor, S.; Reddington, C.L.; Roberts, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Schwarz, J.; Seland, O.; Sellegri, K.; Shen, X.J.; Shiraiwa, M.; Siebert, H.; Sierau, B.; Simpson, D.; Sun, J.Y.; Topping, D.; Tunved, P.; Vaattovaara, P.; Vakkari, V.; Veefkind, J.P.; Visschedijk, A.; Vuollekoski, H.; Vuolo, R.; Wehner, B.; Wildt, J.; Woodward, S.; Worsnop, D.R.; Zadelhoff, G.J. van; Zardini, A.A.; Zhang, K.; Zyl, P.G. van; Kerminen, V.-M.; Carslaw, K.S.; Pandis, S.N.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI). EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a) a comprehensive database with a year of

  19. Unraveling climatic changes from intra-profile variation in oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of goethite and kaolinite in laterites: An integrated study from Yaou, French Guiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Jean-Pierre; Freyssinet, Philippe; Chazot, Gilles

    2000-02-01

    An integrated study of O and H isotopes in the lateritic profile of Yaou, French Guiana, was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of stable isotopes as tracers of climatic changes in continental environments. The studied profile is composed of a 27 m thick saprolite, mostly developed in the past under wet-and-dry tropical climate in association with a duricrust, overlain by a 3 m thick yellow latosol formed more recently under present equatorial hot and humid climate. δ 18O-δD values determined for weathering goethite (pseudomorphs after pyrite) and kaolinite (microcrystalline clay groundmass) throughout the 30 m deep profile reflect formation temperatures consistent with present (25°C) and realistic past climatic temperatures (20°C-30°C), indicating that weathering minerals formed in isotopic equilibrium with their genetic environment and were not subjected to significant isotope exchange after formation. A distinct shift downward (2‰ for δ 18O, 15‰ for δD) from low to high δ 18O-δD values occurs around 20 m depth in the saprolite. It is interpreted as recording the change from the past tropical to the present equatorial climate. Goethite and kaolinite in the 5-10 m thick saprolite interval immediately above the active basement weathering front are in isotopic equilibrium with modern water and must have formed under present equatorial-humid conditions. In contrast, goethite and kaolinite found higher up in the saprolite and in the duricrust formed in the past under tropical wet and dry climate from waters distinctly depleted in 18O and D relative to modern water. The marked depletion of paleo-meteoric water at Yaou most likely reflects a more contrasted or "monsoonal" character of the ancient tropical climate. The present study shows that ancient weathering minerals in lateritic profiles preserve their δ 18O-δD values and carry a time signal. The time signal is best expressed in minerals formed rapidly at the weathering front and not subjected

  20. Unraveling climatic changes from intraprofile variation in oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of goethite and kaolinite in laterites: An integrated study from Yaou, French Guiana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Girard, J.P.; Freyssinet, P.; Chazot, G.

    2000-02-01

    An integrated study of O and H isotopes in the latertic profile of Yaou, French Guiana, was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of stable isotopes as tracers of climatic changes in continental environments. The studied profile is composed of a 27 m thick saprolite, mostly developed in the past under wet-and-dry tropical climate in association with a duricrust, overlain by a 3 m thick yellow latosol formed more recently under present equatorial hot and humid climate. {delta}{sup 18}O-{delta}D values determined for weathering goethite (pseudomorphs after pyrite) and kaolinite (microcrystalline clay groundmass) throughout the 30 m deep profile reflect formation temperatures consistent with present (25 C) and realistic past climatic temperatures (20 C--30 C), indicating that weathering minerals formed in isotopic equilibrium with their genetic environment and were not subjected to significant isotope exchange after formation. A distinct shift downward from low to high {delta}{sup 18}O-{delta}D values occurs around 20 m depth in the saprolite. It is interpreted as recording the change from the past tropical to the present equatorial climate. Goethite and kaolinite in the 5--10 m thick saprolite interval immediately above the active basement weathering front are in isotopic equilibrium with modern water and must have formed under present equatorial-humid conditions. In contrast, goethite and kaolinite found higher up on the saprolite and in the duricrust formed in the past under tropical wet and dry climate from waters distinctly depleted in {sup 18}O and D relative to modern water. The marked depletion of paleo-meteoric water at Yaou most likely reflects a more contrasted or monsoonal character of the ancient tropical climate. The present study shows that ancient weathering minerals in lateritic profiles preserve their {delta}{sup 18}O-{delta}D values and carry a time signal. The time signal is best expressed in minerals formed rapidly at the weathering front and

  1. One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

  2. Status report on the implementation of the integrated energy and climate protection programme of the German government; Statusbericht zur Umsetzung des Integrierten Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramms der Bundesregierung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nissler, Diana; Wachsmann, Ulrike

    2011-04-15

    The German government has committed itself to a 40 percent reduction of climate-relevant gases by 2020, as compared to 1990. In 2007, the government presented an integrated energy and climate protection programme (IEKP) with a catalogue of measures to achieve this goal. The IEKP was to be revised from 2010 by monitoring every two years. If the monitoring were to show that the CO2 reduction goal could not be achieved by the measures taken, suggestions will be made on how to improve CO2 reduction technologies. This study, carried out on behalf of the Federal Minister of Environment, Conservation and Reactor Safety, presents a data base for this monitoring. It is based on work carried out by the Federal Environmental Office, the BMU, and other institutions. (orig.)

  3. Mainstreaming Low-Carbon Climate-Resilient growth pathways into Development Finance Institutions' activities A research program on the standards, tools and metrics to support transition to the low-carbon climate-resilient development model. Paper 3 - Case Study: Integration of Climate Change into the operational activities of Agence Francaise de Developpement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eschalier, Claire; Deheza, Mariana; Cochran, Ian; Risler, Ophelie; Forestier, Pierre

    2015-10-01

    This case study examines the AFD's integration of climate and transition-related information and tools into its activities. It first presents the general investment process and the range of financial instruments used by AFD. Second, the framework elaborated in paper 2 of this series is used to analyze the upstream and downstream integration of long-term climate and transition objectives. It begins with the analysis of the upstream standards and information that are applied to transpose AFD's global strategy and Climate Action Plan into local and sectoral intervention plans and to guide AFD's initial project screening. It then explores the tools and instruments that are used during downstream process for project and program level assessments and optimization, before the final investment decision is made. Although the tools and standards implemented by AFD constitute a solid base for mainstreaming climate considerations into its activities, it seems that they could be further developed to allow for a more qualitative assessment of a project's contribution to 'low-carbon transformation' of a given country's economy. A number of opportunities and challenges to build on AFD's existing tools are identified to take this next step - first among which is the need to work with recipient countries and other development finance institutions to identify country-specific low-carbon climate resilient development pathways. (authors)

  4. Adaptation, Spatial Heterogeneity, and the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems to Climate Change and CO2 Fertilization: An Integrated Assessment Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antle, J.M.; Capalbo, S.M.; Elliott, E.T.; Paustian, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change; and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated

  5. Extent and agenda of emission reduction policies in front of climate risks: lessons learned from integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.

    2004-05-01

    After having highlighted the main difficulties met when trying to take decisions on emission reductions (i.e. disequilibrium between short term action and long term dynamics, series of uncertainties, lack of a clear information on threats), this research aims at studying the extent and the agenda of CO 2 emission reduction efforts at a global scale. First, the author explores under various perspectives the relationship between the extent of climate change and the extent of its impacts and modes of analysis of climate policies. Then, he examines how different attitudes towards the climate risk are translated into recommendations for action which are obtained by always more complex models. In order to compare results, simulations are performed, based on optimal control models belonging to the RESPONSE family. Three different options or attitudes are then studied and assessed with RESPONSE: firstly, the uncertainty on impact and damage assessment is still too important to have confidence in present assessments; secondly, while being sceptical on damage assessment, more confidence is given to climate model results, and thirdly, an explicit representation of climate damages is used to introduce rationality issues in the debate on risks

  6. Exploring Challenges and Opportunities of Coproduction: USDA Climate Hub Efforts to Integrate Coproduction with Applied Research and Decision Support Tool Development in the Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesch-McNally, G.; Prendeville, H. R.

    2017-12-01

    A lack of coproduction, the joint production of new technologies or knowledge among technical experts and other groups, is arguably one of the reasons why much scientific information and resulting decision support systems are not very usable. Increasingly, public agencies and academic institutions are emphasizing the importance of coproduction of scientific knowledge and decision support systems in order to facilitate greater engagement between the scientific community and key stakeholder groups. Coproduction has been embraced as a way for the scientific community to develop actionable scientific information that will assist end users in solving real-world problems. Increasing the level of engagement and stakeholder buy-in to the scientific process is increasingly necessary, particularly in the context of growing politicization of science and the scientific process. Coproduction can be an effective way to build trust and can build-on and integrate local and traditional knowledge. Employing coproduction strategies may enable the development of more relevant and useful information and decision support tools that address stakeholder challenges at relevant scales. The USDA Northwest Climate Hub has increasingly sought ways to integrate coproduction in the development of both applied research projects and the development of decision support systems. Integrating coproduction, however, within existing institutions is not always simple, given that coproduction is often more focused on process than products and products are, for better or worse, often the primary focus of applied research and tool development projects. The USDA Northwest Climate Hub sought to integrate coproduction into our FY2017 call for proposal process. As a result we have a set of proposals and fledgling projects that fall along the engagement continuum (see Figure 1- attached). We will share the challenges and opportunities that emerged from this purposeful integration of coproduction into the work

  7. In-situ databases and comparison of ESA Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) products with precursor data, towards an integrated approach for ocean colour validation and climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotas, Vanda; Valente, André; Couto, André B.; Grant, Mike; Chuprin, Andrei; Jackson, Thomas; Groom, Steve; Sathyendranath, Shubha

    2014-05-01

    Ocean colour (OC) is an Oceanic Essential Climate Variable, which is used by climate modellers and researchers. The European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative project, is the ESA response for the need of climate-quality satellite data, with the goal of providing stable, long-term, satellite-based ECV data products. The ESA Ocean Colour CCI focuses on the production of Ocean Colour ECV uses remote sensing reflectances to derive inherent optical properties and chlorophyll a concentration from ESA's MERIS (2002-2012) and NASA's SeaWiFS (1997 - 2010) and MODIS (2002-2012) sensor archives. This work presents an integrated approach by setting up a global database of in situ measurements and by inter-comparing OC-CCI products with pre-cursor datasets. The availability of in situ databases is fundamental for the validation of satellite derived ocean colour products. A global distribution in situ database was assembled, from several pre-existing datasets, with data spanning between 1997 and 2012. It includes in-situ measurements of remote sensing reflectances, concentration of chlorophyll-a, inherent optical properties and diffuse attenuation coefficient. The database is composed from observations of the following datasets: NOMAD, SeaBASS, MERMAID, AERONET-OC, BOUSSOLE and HOTS. The result was a merged dataset tuned for the validation of satellite-derived ocean colour products. This was an attempt to gather, homogenize and merge, a large high-quality bio-optical marine in situ data, as using all datasets in a single validation exercise increases the number of matchups and enhances the representativeness of different marine regimes. An inter-comparison analysis between OC-CCI chlorophyll-a product and satellite pre-cursor datasets was done with single missions and merged single mission products. Single mission datasets considered were SeaWiFS, MODIS-Aqua and MERIS; merged mission datasets were obtained from the GlobColour (GC) as well as the Making Earth Science

  8. General Overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI)– Integrating Aerosol Research from Nano to Global Scales

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kulmala, M.; Asmi, A.; Lappalainen, H.K.; Baltensperger, U.; Brenguier, J.-L.; Facchini, M.C.; Hansson, H.-C.; Hov, O.; O'Dowd, C.D.; Pöschl, U.; Wiedensohler, A.; Boers, R.; Boucher, O.; de Leeuw, G.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Feichter, J.; Krejčí, R.; Laj, P.; Lihavainen, H.; Lohmann, U.; McFiggans, G.; Mentel, T.; Pilinis, C.; Riipinen, I.; Schulz, M.; Stohl, A.; Swietlicki, E.; Vignati, E.; Alves, C.; Amann, M.; Ammann, M.; Arabas, S.; Artaxo, P.; Baars, H.; Beddows, D.C.S.; Bergström, R.; Beukes, J.P.; Bilde, M.; Burkhart, J.F.; Canonaco, F.; Clegg, S.L.; Coe, H.; Crumeyrolle, S.; D'Anna, B.D.; Decesari, S.; Gilardoni, S.; Fischer, M.; Fjaeraa, A.M.; Fountoukis, C.; George, C.; Gomes, L.; Halloran, P.; Hamburger, T.; Harrison, R. M.; Herrmann, H.; Hoffmann, T.; Hoose, C.; Hu, M.; Hyvärinen, A.; Hörrak, U.; Iinuma, Y.; Iversen, T.; Josipovic, M.; Kanakidou, M.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.; Kirgevak, A.; Kiss, G.; Klimont, Z.; Kolmonen, P.; Komppula, M.; Kristjánsson, J.-E.; Laakso, L.; Laaksonen, A.; Labonnote, L.; Lanz, V.A.; Lehtinen, K.E.J.; Rizzo, L.V.; Makkonen, R.; Manninen, H.E.; McMeeking, G.; Merikanto, J.; Minikin, A.; Mirme, S.; Morgan, W.T.; Nemitz, E.; O'Donell, D.; Panwar, T.S.; Pawlowska, H.; Petzold, A.; Pienaar, J.J.; Pio, C.; Plass-Duelmer, C.; Prévot, A.S.H.; Pryor, S.; Reddington, C.L.; Roberts, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Schwarz, Jaroslav; Seland, O.; Sellegri, K.; Shen, X.J.; Shiraiwa, M.; Siebert, H.; Sierau, B.; Simpson, D.; Sun, J.Y.; Topping, D.; Tunved, P.; Vaattovaara, P.; Vakkari, V.; Veefkind, J.P.; Visschedijk, A.; Vuollekoski, H.; Vuolo, R.; Wehner, B.; Wildt, J.; Woodward, S.; Worsnop, D.R.; van Zadelhoff, G.-J.; Zardini, A.A.; Zhang, K.; van Zyl, P.G.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Carslaw, K.S.; Pandis, S.N.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 24 (2012), s. 13061-13143 ISSN 1680-7316 Grant - others:AFCE(FI) 1118615; EUCAARI(XE) 34684; ERC AG(FI) ATMNUCLE:227463; EUSAAR(XE) RII3-CT-2006-026140 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : aerosol radiative forcing * air quality-climate interactions * abatement strategies Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 5.510, year: 2012

  9. How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non

  10. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. An Integrated Assessment. Part 6. Distribution and Productivity of Unmanaged Ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, R.C.; Thomson, A.M.; Rosenberg, N.J. [The Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Avenue, Suite 201, College Park, Maryland, 20740-2496 (United States); Brown, R.A. [Independent Project Analysis, 11150 Sunset Hills Rd., Suite 3, Reston, Virginia, 20190 (United States)

    2005-03-01

    Human activities have altered the distribution and quality of terrestrial ecosystems. Future demands for goods and services from terrestrial ecosystems will occur in a world experiencing human-induced climate change. In this study, we characterize the range in response of unmanaged ecosystems in the conterminous U.S. to 12 climate change scenarios. We obtained this response by simulating the climatically induced shifts in net primary productivity and geographical distribution of major biomes in the conterminous U.S. with the BIOME 3 model. BIOME 3 captured well the potential distribution of major biomes across the U.S. under baseline (current) climate. BIOME 3 also reproduced the general trends of observed net primary production (NPP) acceptably. The NPP projections were reasonable for forests, but not for grasslands where the simulated values were always greater than those observed. Changes in NPP would be most severe under the BMRC climate change scenario in which severe changes in regional temperatures are projected. Under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios, NPP generally increases, especially in the West where increases in precipitation are projected to be greatest. A CO2-fertilization effect either amplified increases or alleviated losses in modeled NPP. Changes in NPP were also associated with changes in the geographic distribution of major biomes. Temperate/boreal mixed forests would cover less land in the U.S. under most of the climate change scenarios examined. Conversely, the temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests would increase in areal extent under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios. The Arid Shrubland/Steppe would spread significantly across the southwest U.S. under the BMRC scenario. A map overlay of the simulated regions that would lose or gain capacity to produce corn and wheat on top of the projected distribution of natural ecosystems under the BMRC and UIUC scenarios (Global mean temperature increase of +2.5C, no CO2 effect

  11. U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Strategic Plan

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2006-01-01

    .... climate change research and development activities. Under this new structure, climate change science and climate-related technology research programs are integrated to an extent not seen previously...

  12. Effects of Climate Change on Drinking Water Distribution Network Integrity : Predicting Pipe Failure Resulting from Differential Soil Settlement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wols, B.A.; Van Daal, K.; Van Thienen, P.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change may result in lowering of ground water levels and consolidation of the soil. The resulting (differential) settlements, associated with soil property transitions, may damage underground pipe infrastructure, such as drinking water distribution sys- tems. The work presented here offers

  13. Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

    2016-01-01

    Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

  14. An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

    2013-12-01

    Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as

  15. Carbon Cycling and Biosequestration Integrating Biology and Climate Through Systems Science Report from the March 2008 Workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graber, J.; Amthor, J.; Dahlman, R.; Drell, D.; Weatherwax, S.

    2008-12-01

    One of the most daunting challenges facing science in the 21st Century is to predict how Earth's ecosystems will respond to global climate change. The global carbon cycle plays a central role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) levels and thus Earth's climate, but our basic understanding of the myriad of tightly interlinked biological processes that drive the global carbon cycle remains limited at best. Whether terrestrial and ocean ecosystems will capture, store, or release carbon is highly dependent on how changing climate conditions affect processes performed by the organisms that form Earth's biosphere. Advancing our knowledge of biological components of the global carbon cycle is thus crucial to predicting potential climate change impacts, assessing the viability of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, and informing relevant policy decisions. Global carbon cycling is dominated by the paired biological processes of photosynthesis and respiration. Photosynthetic plants and microbes of Earth's land-masses and oceans use solar energy to transform atmospheric CO{sub 2} into organic carbon. The majority of this organic carbon is rapidly consumed by plants or microbial decomposers for respiration and returned to the atmosphere as CO{sub 2}. Coupling between the two processes results in a near equilibrium between photosynthesis and respiration at the global scale, but some fraction of organic carbon also remains in stabilized forms such as biomass, soil, and deep ocean sediments. This process, known as carbon biosequestration, temporarily removes carbon from active cycling and has thus far absorbed a substantial fraction of anthropogenic carbon emissions.

  16. Development of an integrated model for the Campaspe catchment: a tool to help improve understanding of the interaction between society, policy, farming decision, ecology, hydrology and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwanaga, Takuya; Zare, Fateme; Croke, Barry; Fu, Baihua; Merritt, Wendy; Partington, Daniel; Ticehurst, Jenifer; Jakeman, Anthony

    2018-06-01

    Management of water resources requires understanding of the hydrology and hydrogeology, as well as the policy and human drivers and their impacts. This understanding requires relevant inputs from a wide range of disciplines, which will vary depending on the specific case study. One approach to gain understanding of the impact of climate and society on water resources is through the use of an integrated modelling process that engages stakeholders and experts in specifics of problem framing, co-design of the underpinning conceptual model, and discussion of the ensuing results. In this study, we have developed such an integrated modelling process for the Campaspe basin in northern Victoria, Australia. The numerical model built has a number of components: - Node/link based surface water hydrology module based on the IHACRES rainfall-streamflow model - Distributed groundwater model for the lower catchment (MODFLOW) - Farm decision optimisation module (to determine irrigation requirements) - Policy module (setting conditions on availability of water based on existing rules) - Ecology module (determining the impacts of available streamflow on platypus, fish and river red gum trees) The integrated model is component based and has been developed in Python, with the MODFLOW and surface water hydrology model run in external programs, controlled by the master program (in Python). The integrated model has been calibrated using historical data, with the intention of exploring the impact of various scenarios (future climate scenarios, different policy options, water management options) on the water resources. The scenarios were selected based on workshops with, and a social survey of, stakeholders in the basin regarding what would be socially acceptable and physically plausible options for changes in management. An example of such a change is the introduction of a managed aquifer recharge system to capture dam overflows, and store at least a portion of this in the aquifer

  17. Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quevauviller, Philippe; Barceló, Damia; Beniston, Martin; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Harding, Richard J; Iglesias, Ana; Ludwig, Ralf; Navarra, Antonio; Navarro Ortega, Alícia; Mark, Ole; Roson, Roberto; Sempere, Daniel; Stoffel, Markus; van Lanen, Henny A J; Werner, Micha

    2012-12-01

    The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level. Research trends are also on-going, striving to support policy developments and examining how scientific findings and recommendations could be best taken on board by policy-makers and water managers within the forthcoming years. This paper provides a snapshot of policy discussions about climate change in the context of the WFD river basin management planning and specific advancements of related EU-funded research projects. Perspectives for strengthening links among the scientific and policy-making communities in this area are also highlighted. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. General overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI) – integrating aerosol research from nano to global scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulmala, M.; Asmi, A.; Lappalainen, H. K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI). EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a) a comprehensive database with a year...... of observations of the physical, chemical and optical properties of aerosol particles over Europe, (b) comprehensive aerosol measurements in four developing countries, (c) a database of airborne measurements of aerosols and clouds over Europe during May 2008, (d) comprehensive modeling tools to study aerosol...

  19. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2015-11-30

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

  20. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort David [MIT

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  1. 'Integration'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olwig, Karen Fog

    2011-01-01

    , while the countries have adopted disparate policies and ideologies, differences in the actual treatment and attitudes towards immigrants and refugees in everyday life are less clear, due to parallel integration programmes based on strong similarities in the welfare systems and in cultural notions...... of equality in the three societies. Finally, it shows that family relations play a central role in immigrants’ and refugees’ establishment of a new life in the receiving societies, even though the welfare society takes on many of the social and economic functions of the family....

  2. How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?; Comment tenir compte de l'irreversibilite dans l'evaluation integree du changement climatique?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha Duong, M

    1998-04-15

    How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO{sub 2} limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO{sub 2} concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO{sub 2} accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

  3. How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?; Comment tenir compte de l'irreversibilite dans l'evaluation integree du changement climatique?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha Duong, M

    1998-04-15

    How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO{sub 2} limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO{sub 2} concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO{sub 2} accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

  4. Minimizing Surface Exposure to Climate Extremity in Coastal Megacities by Structure Remodelling using Integral Geographic Information System: Lessons from Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal metropolitans in South Asia represent the most densely populated and congested urban spaces ranking among the largest urban settlements of the planet. These megacities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools, and weak resilience of urban ecosystems. Additionally, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly growing coastal megacities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. This has adversely affected local counter strategies and adaptation tools, transforming such events into hazards with the inability to respond and mitigate. Study aimed to develop a participatory framework for risk reduction in Greater Mumbai Metropolitan by Structure Remodeling (SR) in integral GIS. Research utilized terrain analysis tools and vulnerability mapping, and identified risk susceptible fabric and checked its scope for SR without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2.without interference with the ecosystem services accommodated by it. Surfaces available included paved ground, streetscapes commercial facades, rooftops,public spaces, open as well as dark spaces. Remodeling altered certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with infrastructure measures (grey, green, blue) that collectively involved ecosystem services and maintained natural hydrological connection. This method fairly reduced exposure of vulnerable surface and minimized risk to achieve extremity-neutral state. Harmonizing with public perception and incorporating priorities of local authorities, the method is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of (often) conflicting perspectives and interests of multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in urban climate governance while ensuring inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. Additionally

  5. Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

    2017-11-01

    Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

  6. Mapping the Human Planet: Integrating Settlement, Infrastructure, and Population Data to Support Sustainable Development, Climate, and Disaster Data Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, R. S.; de Sherbinin, A. M.; Yetman, G.; Downs, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    A central issue in international efforts to address climate change, large-scale disaster risk, and overall sustainable development is the exposure of human settlements and population to changing climate patterns and a range of geological, climatological, technological, and other hazards. The present and future location of human activities is also important in mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and to ensuring that we "leave no one behind" in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the international community in September 2015. The extent and quality of built infrastructure are key factors in the mortality, morbidity, and economic impacts of disasters, and are simultaneously essential to sustainable development. Earth observations have great potential to improve the coverage, consistency, timeliness, and richness of data on settlements, infrastructure, and population, in ways that complement existing and emerging forms of socioeconomic data collection such as censuses, surveys, and cell phone and Internet traffic. Night-time lights from the Suomi-NPP satellite may be able to provide near real-time data on occupance and economic activity. New "big data" capabilities make it possible to rapidly process high-resolution (50-cm) imagery to detect structures and changes in structures, especially in rural areas where other data are limited. A key challenge is to ensure that these types of data can be translated into forms useful in a range of applications and for diverse user communities, including national statistical offices, local government planners, development and humanitarian organizations, community groups, and the private sector. We report here on efforts, in coordination with the GEO Human Planet Initiative, to develop new data on settlements, infrastructure, and population, together with open data services and tools, to support disaster risk assessment, climate vulnerability analysis, and sustainable development decision making.

  7. Travel intensity and climate policy: The influence of different mobility futures on the diffusion of battery integrated vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longden, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    The importance of a focus on mobility and the kilometres travelled using light duty vehicles is reflected in the persistence of strong demand for personal mobility and emissions that tend to be linked with population and economic growth. Simulation results using the WITCH model show that changes in the kilometres driven per year using light duty vehicles have a notable impact on investments related to the development of battery related technologies. As a result, different mobility futures have notably different optimal vehicle fleet compositions. As climate policy becomes more stringent, achieving abatement with increased mobility implies large investments in battery related technologies in comparison to the 2010 level. The model results also show that the Electric Vehicles Initiative goal of a 2% share of vehicles in 2020 could be achieved with climate policy in place. However, notable cost reductions and the removal of barriers to diffusion will need to continue for the EVI goal to be achieved. - Highlights: • Travel intensity of GDP at the national level shows signs of stability over an extended period. • Different mobility futures imply notably different optimal vehicle fleet compositions. • As climate policy becomes more stringent, investments in battery related technologies increase substantially. • The model results show that the Electric Vehicles Initiative goal of a 2% share of vehicles in 2020 could be achieved. • Cost reductions and the removal of barriers to diffusion will need to continue for the EVI goal to be achieved

  8. An integrated multi-parameter monitoring approach for the quantification and mitigation of the climate change impact on the coasts of Eastern Crete, S. Aegean Sea (Project AKTAIA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghionis, George; Alexandrakis, George; Karditsa, Aikaterini; Sifnioti, Dafni; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Andreadis, Olympos; Petrakis, Stelios; Poulos, Serafim; Velegrakis, Adonis; Kampanis, Nikolaos; Lipakis, Michalis

    2014-05-01

    The AKTAIA project aims at the production of new knowledge regarding the forms of manifestation of the climate change and its influence on the stability and evolution of the coastal landforms along the shoreline of eastern Crete (approximate length: 757 km), taking into account the various aspects of human intervention. Aerial photographs, satellite images and orthophotomaps have been used to produce a detailed coastline map and to study the morphological characteristics of the coastal zone of Eastern Crete. More than 100 beach zones have been visited during three field campaigns, which included geomorphological and human intervention mapping, topographic, meteorological and oceanographic measurements and sedimentological sampling and observations. In addition, two pilot sites (one in the north and one in the south part of Crete) are being monitored, via the installation of coastal video monitoring systems, shore-based meteorological stations and wave-tide recorders installed in the nearshore zone. Detailed seafloor mapping with the use of side scan sonar and scuba diving and bathymetric surveys were conducted in the two pilot sites. Meteorological and oceanographic data from all existing land-based meteorological stations, oceanographic buoys and the ERA-interim dataset are used to determine the wind and wave climate of each beach. The collected climatic, sedimentological and coastal environmental data are being integrated in a GIS database that will be used to forecast the climatic trends in the area of Crete for the next decades and to model the impact of the climatic change on the future evolution of the coastal zone. New methodologies for the continuous monitoring of land-sea interaction and for the quantification of the loss of sensitive coastal zones due to sea-level rise and a modified Coastal Vulnerability Index for a comparative evaluation of the vulnerability of the coasts are being developed. Numerical modelling of the nearshore hydrodynamics and the

  9. Integrated simulation, evaluation of the climatic risks and safety policies. Synthesis report july 2002; Modelisation integree, evaluation des risques climatiques et des politiques de precaution. Rapport de synthese juillet 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.Ch. [CNRS, Directeur d' etude, EHESS, Directeur, CIRED, 94 - Nogent Sur Marne (France); LeTreut, H. [CNRS, Directeur de recherche, LMD, LMD, 75 - Paris (France)

    2002-07-15

    The aim of this program is the improvement of the natural phenomena representation in the integrated models of the climate policies evaluation and to precise the methodological problems resulting from the damages treatment. It underlines the importance of the retroactions between the CO{sub 2} emissions, the lands affectation and the carbon cycle, as the importance of the uncertainties on the climate sensitivity. (A.L.B.)

  10. Prediction of daily spring hydrographs for future climatic scenarios based on an integrated numerical modelling approach: Application on a snow-governed semi- arid karst catchment area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doummar, J.; Kassem, A.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    In the framework of a three-year USAID/NSF- funded PEER Science project, flow in a karst system in Lebanon (Assal Spring; discharge 0.2-2.5 m3/s yearly volume of 22-30 Mm3) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated using an integrated numerical model (Mike She 2016). The calibrated model (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.77) is based on high resolution input data (2014-2017) and detailed catchment characterization. The approach is to assess the influence of various model parameters on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone) based on an integrated numerical model. These parameters include precipitation intensity and magnitude, temperature, snow-melt parameters, in addition to karst specific spatially distributed features such as fast infiltration points, soil properties and thickness, topographical slopes, Epikarst and thickness of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity among others. Moreover, the model is currently simulated forward using various scenarios for future climate (Global Climate Models GCM; daily downscaled temperature and precipitation time series for Lebanon 2020-2045) in order to depict the flow rates expected in the future and the effect of climate change on hydrographs recession coefficients, discharge maxima and minima, and total spring discharge volume . Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge or indirectly on the vulnerability of the system (soil thickness, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity appear to be amongst the highly sensitive parameters). This study particularly unravels the normalized single effect of rain magnitude and intensity, snow, and temperature change on the flow rate (e.g., a change of temperature of 3° on the catchment yields a Residual Mean Square Error RMSE of 0.15 m3/s in the spring discharge and a 16% error in the total annual volume with

  11. Establishing an ethical climate in support of research integrity: efforts and activities of the American Sociological Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iutcovich, Joyce M; Kennedy, John M; Levine, Felice J

    2003-04-01

    The article provides an overview of the recent efforts and activities of the American Sociological Association (ASA) to keep its Code of Ethics visible and relevant to its membership. The development process and challenges associated with the most recent revision of the ASA's code are reviewed, the current education and support activities are described, and other strategies for taking a proactive and leadership role in establishing an ethical climate are proposed. In conclusion, while the ASA has made significant progress in this area, it recognizes that a lot of work remains.

  12. Integrating local urban climate modelling and mobile sensor data for personal exposure assessments in the context of urban heat island effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueberham, Maximilian; Hertel, Daniel; Schlink, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    ) and the surrounding nesting area (rural area). Preparing for the outdoor application of mobile MSDs we tested their accuracy and performance between several MSDs and reliable sophisticated devices under laboratory conditions. We found that variations mainly depend on the device design and technology (e.g. active/passive ventilation). The standard deviation of the temperature records was quite stable over the whole range of values and the MSDs proved to be applicable for the purpose of our study. In conclusion the benefit of integrating mobile data and micrometeorological predictions is manifold. Mobile data can be used for the investigation of personal exposure in the context of heat stress and for the verification and training of micrometeorological models. Otherwise, model predictions can identify local areas of special climate interest where additional mobile measurements would be beneficial to provide new information for mitigation and adaptation actions.

  13. Vertical integration of local fuel producers into rural district heating systems – Climate impact and production costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimming, M.; Sundberg, C.; Nordberg, Å.; Hansson, P.-A.

    2015-01-01

    Farmers can use their own agricultural biomass residues for heat production in small-scale systems, enabling synergies between the district heating (DH) sector and agriculture. The barriers to entry into the Swedish heat market were extremely high as long as heat distribution were considered natural monopoly, but were recently lowered due to the introduction of a regulated third party access (TPA) system in the DH sector. This study assesses the potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions and cost-based heat price in the DH sector when farmers vertically integrate into the heat supply chain and introduce more local and agricultural crops and residues into the fuel mix. Four scenarios with various degree of farmer integration, were assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, and by analysis of the heat production costs. The results show that full integration of local farm and forest owners in the value chain can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lower production costs/heat price, if there is an incentive to utilise local and agricultural fuels. The results imply that farmer participation in the DH sector should be encouraged by e.g. EU rural development programmes. - Highlights: • Five DH production systems based on different fuels and ownership were analysed. • Lower GHG emissions were obtained when farmers integrate fully into the DH chain. • Lower heat price was obtained by full vertical integration of farmers. • Salix and straw-based production resulted in the lowest GHG and heat price

  14. Climate change, water security and the need for integrated policy development: the case of on-farm infrastructure investment in the Australian irrigation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maraseni, T N; Mushtaq, S; Reardon-Smith, K

    2012-01-01

    The Australian Government is currently addressing the challenge of increasing water scarcity through significant on-farm infrastructure investment to facilitate the adoption of new water-efficient pressurized irrigation systems. However, it is highly likely that conversion to these systems will increase on-farm energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, suggesting potential conflicts in terms of mitigation and adaptation policies. This study explored the trade-offs associated with the adoption of more water efficient but energy-intensive irrigation technologies by developing an integrated assessment framework. Integrated analysis of five case studies revealed trade-offs between water security and environmental security when conversion to pressurized irrigation systems was evaluated in terms of fuel and energy-related emissions, except in cases where older hand-shift sprinkler irrigation systems were replaced. These results suggest that priority should be given, in implementing on-farm infrastructure investment policy, to replacing inefficient and energy-intensive sprinkler irrigation systems such as hand-shift and roll-line. The results indicated that associated changes in the use of agricultural machinery and agrochemicals may also be important. The findings of this study support the use of an integrated approach to avoid possible conflicts in designing national climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, both of which are being developed in Australia. (letter)

  15. Effect of Phase Change Materials (PCMs Integrated into a Concrete Block on Heat Gain Prevention in a Hot Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Hasan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In the current study, a phase change material (PCM contained in an insulated concrete block is tested in extremely hot weather in the United Arab Emirates (UAE to evaluate its cooling performance. An insulated chamber is constructed behind the block containing PCM to mimic a scaled down indoor space. The effect of placement of the PCM layer on heat gain indoors is studied at two locations: adjacent to the outer as well as the inner concrete layer. The inclusion of PCM reduced heat gain through concrete blocks compared to blocks without PCM, yielding a drop in cooling load indoors. The placement of PCM and insulation layers adjacent to indoors exhibited better cooling performance compared to that adjacent to the outdoors. In the best case, a temperature drop of 8.5% and a time lag of 2.6 h are achieved in peak indoor temperature, rendering a reduction of 44% in the heat gain. In the tested hot climate, the higher ambient temperature and the lower wind speed hampered heat dissipation and PCM re-solidification by natural ventilation. The findings recommend employing a mechanical ventilation in hot climates to enhance regeneration of the PCM to solid state for its optimal performance.

  16. Exploring Historical Coffee and Climate Relations in Southern Guatemala: An Integration of Tree Ring Analysis and Remote Sensing Data =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, Diego

    This dissertation makes use of a physical geography perspective to examine the relationship between agriculture and climate in Guatemala using dendrochronology. I examined the potential of high-resolution climate proxy data from dendrochronology to help fill in the gaps of past climate information to better understand the natural and anthropogenic variability of precipitation which, in turn, can inform Guatemala's agriculture sector. This research has demonstrated successful cross-dating and climate sensitivity of Abies guatemalensis in the Pacific slope of Guatemala. Based on this, I have produced a 124-year record of mean precipitation from June-July-August. The mean precipitation from June-July-August at this site seems to receive an important influence from the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean in the form of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the region 3.4. The analysis on the frequency of the precipitation records suggests that single year droughts dominate the record yet, periods of 9 years below-average rainfall can persist. Likewise, single year pluvial events also dominate the evaluated period. The long-term reconstruction of precipitation allowed to describe past relationships between coffee plantations and pests. For instance, the frequency analysis suggests that 4 or more consecutive periods of above-average precipitation are associated with several coffee pests and subsequently great economical losses due to crop failures, including the last coffee leaf rust crisis. This study also presents a streamflow reconstruction of the Upper Samala River watershed using a tree ring-width chronology derived from the Guatemalan fir (Abies guatemalensis) to reconstruct mean August-September-October streamflow volumes for the period 1889-2013. Our analysis shows that strong statistical correlations are present between tree-ring width measurements and monthly natural streamflow series. The mean August-September-October streamflow variability is

  17. Uncertainties in Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessments by Sub-setting GCMs Based on Annual as well as Crop Growing Period under Rice Based Farming System of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Panwar, A. S.; Meena, M. S.; Singh, S. V.; Singh, B.; Paudel, G. P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Ruane, A. C.; McDermid, S.; Boote, K. J.; Porter, C.; Valdivia, R. O.

    2016-12-01

    Integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity is a challenge to the scientific community due to uncertainties of input data, particularly the climate, soil, crop calibration and socio-economic dataset. However, the uncertainty due to selection of GCMs is the major source due to complex underlying processes involved in initial as well as the boundary conditions dealt in solving the air-sea interactions. Under Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Indo-Gangetic Plains Regional Research Team investigated the uncertainties caused due to selection of GCMs through sub-setting based on annual as well as crop-growth period of rice-wheat systems in AgMIP Integrated Assessment methodology. The AgMIP Phase II protocols were used to study the linking of climate-crop-economic models for two study sites Meerut and Karnal to analyse the sensitivity of current production systems to climate change. Climate Change Projections were made using 29 CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 during mid-century period (2040-2069). Two crop models (APSIM & DSSAT) were used. TOA-MD economic model was used for integrated assessment. Based on RAPs (Representative Agricultural Pathways), some of the parameters, which are not possible to get through modeling, derived from literature and interactions with stakeholders incorporated into the TOA-MD model for integrated assessment.

  18. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  19. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2015-04-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  20. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II—Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelson, R.; Kokic, P.; Crimp, S.; Martin, P.; Meinke, H.B.; Howden, S.M.; DeVoil, P.; McKeon, G.; Nidumolu, U.

    2010-01-01

    In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple

  1. Temperature reconstruction from dripwater hydrochemistry, speleothem fabric and speleothem δ13C: towards an integrated approach in temperate climate caves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsato, Andrea; Frisia, Silvia; Johnston, Vanessa; Spötl, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Accurate reconstruction of past climate records from speleothem minerals requires a thorough understanding of both environmental and hydrologic conditions underpinning their formation. These conditions likely influenced how speleothems incorporate chemical signals that are used as climate proxies. Thus, a thorough investigation of environmental and hydrologic parameters is a pre-requisite to gain robust palaeoclimate reconstructions from stalagmites. Here, we present a systematic study of soil, dripwater and speleothems in temperate climate caves at different altitudes, which allowed the assessment of how mean annual air temperature in the infiltration area (MATinf) influences vegetation cover, soil pCO2 and, eventually, pCO2 of karst water and cave air. Our study demonstrates that for caves developed in pure carbonate rocks, the soil and aquifer pCO2 are directly related to the MATinf (Borsato et al., 2015). It is well known that soil and aquifer pCO2 control carbonate dissolution and the carbonate-carbonic acid system. By establishing a relationship between dripwater pCO2 and MATinf, we show that dripwater Ca content and calcite saturation state SIcc) are correlated with MATinf when unaffected by Prior Calcite Precipitation. In particular, dripwater saturation (SIcc = 0) is reached at a MATinf of 4.4°C in our study area. This MATinf delineates a ''speleothem limit", above which speleothems composed of sparitic calcite should not form (Borsato et al., 2016). In fact, sparitic calcite speleothems do not form, today, in caves with a MATinf well as calcite δ13C in speleothems that were not significantly influenced by kinetic fractionation. A linear correlation between calcite δ13C and MATinf was obtained for modern sparitic speleothems that formed at isotopic equilibrium (Johnston et al., 2013). The combination of these two approaches (present-day dripwater SIcc and calcite δ13C in sparitic speleothems) can be used to reconstruct the past MATinf for high

  2. Scientific Integrity and Professional Ethics at AGU - Strategies and Actions to Impact Sexual Harassment in Science and other Work Climate Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhaden, Michael; Davidson, Eric; McEntee, Christine; Williams, Billy

    2017-04-01

    The American Geophysical Union (AGU), a scientific society of 62,000 members worldwide, has established a set of scientific integrity and professional ethics guidelines for the actions of its members, for the governance of the union in its internal activities, and for the operations and participation in its publications and scientific meetings. More recently AGU has undertaken strategies and actions to help address the issue of harassment in the sciences and other work climate issues. This presentation will provide an overview of the role of scientific societies in helping to address these important issues, as well as specific strategies and actions underway at AGU and other societies. Progress to date and remaining challenges of this effort will be discussed, including AGU's work to provide additional program strength in this area.

  3. Clays as mineral dust aerosol: An integrated approach to studying climate, atmospheric chemistry, and biogeochemical effects of atmospheric clay minerals in an undergraduate research laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, C. D.; Crane, C. C.; Harris, K. J.; Thompson, C. E.; Miles, M. K.; Weingold, R. M.; Bucuti, T.

    2011-12-01

    Entrained mineral dust aerosol accounts for 45% of the global annual atmospheric aerosol load and can have a significant influence on important environmental issues, including climate, atmospheric chemistry, cloud formation, biogeochemical processes, visibility, and human health. 70% of all mineral aerosol mass originating from Africa consists of layered aluminosilicates, including illite, kaolinite, and montmorillonite clays. Clay minerals are a largely neglected component of mineral aerosol, yet they have unique physiochemical properties, including a high reactive surface area, large cation exchange capacities, small particle sizes, and a relatively large capacity to take up adsorbed water, resulting in expansion of clay layers (and a larger reactive surface area for heterogeneous interactions) in some cases. An integrated laboratory research approach has been implemented at Hendrix College, a Primarily Undergraduate Institution, in which undergraduate students are involved in independent and interdisciplinary research projects that relate the chemical aging processes (heterogeneous chemistry) of clay minerals as a major component of mineral aerosol to their effects on climate (water adsorption), atmospheric chemistry (trace gas uptake), and biogeochemistry (iron dissolution and phytoplankton biomarker studies). Preliminary results and future directions will be reported.

  4. Integrating the EMPD with an Alpine altitudinal training set to reconstruct climate variables in Holocene pollen records from high-altitude peat bogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlanetto, Giulia; Badino, Federica; Brunetti, Michele; Champvillair, Elena; De Amicis, Mattia; Maggi, Valter; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Vallé, Francesca

    2016-04-01

    ., 2014), starting from a dense and quality-controlled observational dataset. In the most advanced step, we designed calibration functions using modern pollen and climate data stored in the EMPD and integrated with the 27 samples from the altitudinal training set. Regression and calibration method (LWWA) and MAT (Modern Analogue Technique) were used to reconstruct temperatures and precipitation. We applied the models to our fossil site to infer temperatures of the coldest (Tjan) and warmest (Tjul) months and the mean annual precipitation (Pann). Finally we compared our results with established climate proxy records (oxygen isotope records from ice cores, records of Alpine Glaciers fluctuations, stalagmites). This research is promoted by the CNR-DTA NextData Project. Brunetti et al., 2014. International Journal of Climatology 34, 1278-1296. Cañellas-Boltà et al., 2009. The Holocene 19(8), 1185-1200. Davis et al., 2013. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany 22, 521-530.

  5. Energy system modelling and GIS to build an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for Gauteng Province, South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomaschek, Jan; Kober, Ralf; Fahl, Ulrich; Lozynskyy, Yuriy

    2016-01-01

    South Africa and specifically its economically dominant province of Gauteng aim to reduce their influence on climate change. Especially the transport sector is seen as one of the key drivers of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper describes the methodology used to combine the application of two models in order to provide a basis for informed policy recommendation for GHG mitigation. The TEMT model provides real world emission factors adapted to local conditions in Gauteng for numerous vehicle technology concepts. Those data feed into the TIMES-GEECO energy system model which identifies future technology use for different alternative scenarios. Finally, the scenario results are illustrated spatially using a GIS programme. The results of the scenario analysis show that under implemented policies GHG emissions in Gauteng are likely to increase substantially. Pollutant emissions are currently high as a result of a comparably old vehicle fleet. The spatial display of these results shows where the traffic network is concentrated and the location of so-called emission hot-spots. Energy efficient policies for the transport sector of Gauteng can achieve a significant reduction of emissions and energy consumption. Alternative powertrains and the use of locally produced biofuels can play a significant role in such policies. - Highlights: • Two models to assess the transport sector have been developed. • The methodology covers the energy system and locational information. • Application to Gauteng to provide input for a Climate Protection Concept. • Energy efficient polices will help to significantly reduce transport emissions. • Local renewable resources and efficient powertrains should be part of this policy.

  6. Life cycle assessment of seaweed biomethane, generated from seaweed sourced from integrated multi-trophic aquaculture in temperate oceanic climates

    OpenAIRE

    CZYRNEK-DELETRE MAGDALENA; ROCCA STEFANIA; AGOSTINI ALESSANDRO; GIUNTOLI JACOPO; MURPHY JERRY

    2017-01-01

    Biomethane produced from seaweed is a third generation renewable gaseous fuel. The advantage of seaweed for biofuel is that it does not compete directly or indirectly for land with food, feed or fibre production. Furthermore, the integration of seaweed and salmon farming can increase the yield of seaweed per hectare, while reducing the eutrophication from fish farming. So far, full comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of seaweed biofuel are scarce in the literature; current studi...

  7. The great climate debate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sudhakara Reddy, B.; Assenza, Gaudenz B.

    2009-01-01

    For over two decades, scientific and political communities have debated whether and how to act on climate change. The present paper revisits these debates and synthesizes the longstanding arguments. Firstly, it provides an overview of the development of international climate policy and discusses clashing positions, represented by sceptics and supporters of action on climate change. Secondly, it discusses the market-based measures as a means to increase the win-win opportunities and to attract profit-minded investors to invest in climate change mitigation. Finally, the paper examines whether climate protection policies can yield benefits both for the environment and the economy. A new breed of analysts are identified who are convinced of the climate change problem, while remaining sceptical of the proposed solutions. The paper suggests the integration of climate policies with those of development priorities that are vitally important for developing countries and stresses the need for using sustainable development as a framework for climate change policies.

  8. The National Danish Water Resources Model - using an integrated groundwater - surface water model for decision support and WFD implementation in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Hinsby, Klaus; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Troldborg, Lars

    2014-05-01

    Integrated and sustainable water resources management and development of river basin management plans according to the Water Framework Directive is getting increasingly complex especially when taking projected climate change into account. Furthermore, uncertainty in future developments and incomplete knowledge of the physical system introduces a high degree of uncertainty in the decision making process. Knowledge based decision making is therefore vital for formulation of robust management plans and to allow assessment of the inherent uncertainties. The Department of Hydrology at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland started in 1996 to develop a mechanistically, transient and spatially distributed groundwater-surface water model - the DK-model - for the assessment of groundwater quantitative status accounting for interactions with surface water and anthropogenic changes, such as extraction strategies and land use, as well as climate change. The model has been subject to continuous update building on hydrogeological knowledge established by the regional water authorities and other national research institutes. With the on-going improvement of the DK-model it is now increasingly applied both by research projects and for decision support e.g. in implementation of the Water Framework Directive or to support other decisions related to protection of water resources (quantitative and chemical status), ecosystems and the built environment. At present, the DK-model constitutes the backbone of a strategic modelling project funded by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, with the aim of developing a modelling complex that will provide the foundation of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Since 2003 the DK-model has been used in more than 25 scientific papers and even more public reports. In the poster and the related review paper we describe the most important applications in both science and policy, where the DK-model has been used either

  9. Impacts of climate change on the food-energy-water nexus in the upper Yellow River Basin: An integrated hydro-economic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Y.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    The large-scale reservoir system built on the upper Yellow River serves multiple purposes. The generated hydropower supplies over 60% of the entire electricity for the regional power grid while the irrigated crop production feeds almost one-third of the total population throughout the whole river basin. Moreover, the reservoir system also bears the responsibility for controlling ice flood, which occurs during the non-flood season due to winter ice freezing followed by spring thawing process, and could be even more disastrous than the summer flood. The contradiction of water allocation to satisfy multi-sector demands while mitigating ice flood risk has been longstanding. However, few researchers endeavor to employ the nexus thinking to addressing the complexities involved in all the interlinked purposes. In this study, we develop an integrated hydro-economic model that can be used to explore both the tradeoffs and synergies between the multiple purposes, based on which the water infrastructures (e.g., reservoir, diversion canal, pumping well) can be coordinated for maximizing the co-benefits of multiple sectors. The model is based on a node-link schematic of multiple operations including hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. In particular, the model depicts some details regarding reservoir operation rules during the ice season using two indicators, i.e., flow control period and flow control level. The rules are obtained from historical records using data mining techniques under different climate conditions, and they are added to the model as part of the system constraints. Future reservoir inflow series are generated by a hydrological model with future climate scenarios projected by General Circulation Model (GCM). By analyzing the model results under the various climate scenarios, the future possible shifting trajectory of the food-energy-water system characteristics will be derived compared to

  10. Climate. For a successful change. Volume 1: How to commit one's territory in an adaptation approach. Volume 2: How to implement a territorial project which integrates adaptation. Volume 3: How to understand the complexity of climate change - Scientific issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    The first volume presents the climate issue as a world issue as well as a local issue (historic context of adaptation to climate change effects, legal obligation for local communities, indicators of direct and indirect effects of climate change, economic impacts), and presents adaptation as a way of action at a local level (definition of a strategy, articulation between works on greenhouse gas emissions and those on adaptation, actions to be implemented, action follow-up and adjustment). The second volume describes how to communicate and talk about climate change, and more specifically about the above-mentioned issues (reality of climate change, indirect and direct effects, obligations and responsibilities for local communities, economic impacts). It addresses the issue of climate change in the Rhone-Alpes region: adaptation within the regional scheme on climate, air and energy (SRCAE), role of local communities. It presents an action methodology: to inform and organise, to prepare the mobilisation of actors, to prepare the territory vulnerability diagnosis, to define the adaptation strategy, and to implement, follow-up and assess the action. The third volume proposes a set of sheets containing scientific information and data related to climate change: factors of climate variability, current global warming, greenhouse gases and aerosols, physical-chemical principles involved in greenhouse effect, carbon sinks and carbon sources, effects of land assignment and agriculture, combined effects of mankind actions on the atmosphere, climate change and oceans, climate change and cryo-sphere, climate change and biodiversity, extreme meteorological and climate events and their consequences

  11. Integration of prognostic aerosol-cloud interactions in a chemistry transport model coupled offline to a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, M. A.; Kahnert, M.; Andersson, C.; Kokkola, H.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.; Langner, J.; Devasthale, A.

    2015-06-01

    To reduce uncertainties and hence to obtain a better estimate of aerosol (direct and indirect) radiative forcing, next generation climate models aim for a tighter coupling between chemistry transport models and regional climate models and a better representation of aerosol-cloud interactions. In this study, this coupling is done by first forcing the Rossby Center regional climate model (RCA4) with ERA-Interim lateral boundaries and sea surface temperature (SST) using the standard cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) formulation (hereafter, referred to as the "stand-alone RCA4 version" or "CTRL" simulation). In the stand-alone RCA4 version, CDNCs are constants distinguishing only between land and ocean surface. The meteorology from this simulation is then used to drive the chemistry transport model, Multiple-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), which is coupled online with the aerosol dynamics model, Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications (SALSA). CDNC fields obtained from MATCH-SALSA are then fed back into a new RCA4 simulation. In this new simulation (referred to as "MOD" simulation), all parameters remain the same as in the first run except for the CDNCs provided by MATCH-SALSA. Simulations are carried out with this model setup for the period 2005-2012 over Europe, and the differences in cloud microphysical properties and radiative fluxes as a result of local CDNC changes and possible model responses are analysed. Our study shows substantial improvements in cloud microphysical properties with the input of the MATCH-SALSA derived 3-D CDNCs compared to the stand-alone RCA4 version. This model setup improves the spatial, seasonal and vertical distribution of CDNCs with a higher concentration observed over central Europe during boreal summer (JJA) and over eastern Europe and Russia during winter (DJF). Realistic cloud droplet radii (CD radii) values have been simulated with the maxima reaching 13 μm, whereas in the stand

  12. Simulator with integrated HW and SW for prediction of thermal comfort to provide feedback to the climate control system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokorný, Jan; Kopečková, Barbora; Fišer, Jan; JÍcha, Miroslav

    2018-06-01

    The aim of the paper is to assemble a simulator for evaluation of thermal comfort in car cabins in order to give a feedback to the HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) system. The HW (hardware) part of simulator is formed by thermal manikin Newton and RH (relative humidity), velocity and temperature probes. The SW (software) part consists of the Thermal Comfort Analyser (using ISO 14505-2) and Virtual Testing Stand of Car Cabin defining the heat loads of car cabin. Simulator can provide recommendation for the climate control how to improve thermal comfort in cabin by distribution and directing of air flow, and also by amount of ventilation power to keep optimal temperature inside a cabin. The methods of evaluation of thermal comfort were verified by tests with 10 test subjects for summer (summer clothing, ambient air temperature 30 °C, HVAC setup: +24 °C auto) and winter conditions (winter clothing, ambient air temperature -5 °C, HVAC setup: +18 °C auto). The tests confirmed the validity of the thermal comfort evaluation using the thermal manikin and ISO 14505-2.

  13. Simulator with integrated HW and SW for prediction of thermal comfort to provide feedback to the climate control system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pokorný Jan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to assemble a simulator for evaluation of thermal comfort in car cabins in order to give a feedback to the HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning system. The HW (hardware part of simulator is formed by thermal manikin Newton and RH (relative humidity, velocity and temperature probes. The SW (software part consists of the Thermal Comfort Analyser (using ISO 14505-2 and Virtual Testing Stand of Car Cabin defining the heat loads of car cabin. Simulator can provide recommendation for the climate control how to improve thermal comfort in cabin by distribution and directing of air flow, and also by amount of ventilation power to keep optimal temperature inside a cabin. The methods of evaluation of thermal comfort were verified by tests with 10 test subjects for summer (summer clothing, ambient air temperature 30 °C, HVAC setup: +24 °C auto and winter conditions (winter clothing, ambient air temperature -5 °C, HVAC setup: +18 °C auto. The tests confirmed the validity of the thermal comfort evaluation using the thermal manikin and ISO 14505-2.

  14. A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Yiyong; Newth, David; Finnigan, John; Gunasekera, Don

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • This paper introduces the design of a hybrid energy-economy model, GTEM-C. • The model offers a unified tool to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. • Results are presented on global energy transformation due to carbon mitigation. • Electrification with renewable energies can contain the spiking of carbon prices. - Abstract: This paper introduces the design of the CSIRO variant of the Global Trade and Environment model (GTEM-C). GTEM-C is a hybrid model that combines the top-down macroeconomic representation of a computable general equilibrium model with the bottom-up engineering details of energy production. The model features detailed accounting for global energy flows that are embedded in traded energy goods, and it offers a unified framework to analyse the energy-carbon-environment nexus. As an illustrative example, we present simulation results on global energy transformation under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative carbon pathways 4.5 and 8.5. By testing the model’s sensitivity to the relevant parameter, we find that the pace of electrification will significantly contain the spiking of carbon prices because electricity can be produced from carbon-free or less carbon-intensive technologies. The decoupling of energy use and carbon footprint, due to the uptake of clean electricity technologies, such as nuclear, wind, solar, and carbon capture and storage, allows the world to maintain high level of energy consumption, which is essential to economic growth

  15. Integrated modelling of climate, water, soil, agricultural and socio-economic processes: A general introduction of the methodology and some exemplary results from the semi-arid north-east of Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, Martinus S.; Jaeger, Annekathrin; Bronstert, Axel; Güntner, Andreas

    2006-01-01

    Many semi-arid regions are characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress. Integrated studies including climatology, hydrology, and socio-economic studies are required both for analysing the dynamic natural conditions and to

  16. A wireless partially glaciated watershed in a virtual globe: Integrating data, models, and visualization to increase climate change understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J.; Hood, E.; Fatland, D. R.; Berner, L.; Heavner, M.; Connor, C.; O'Brien, W.

    2008-12-01

    SEAMONSTER, a NASA funded sensor web project, is the SouthEast Alaska MOnitoring Network for Science, Telecommunications, Education and Research. SEAMONSTER is operating in the partially glaciated Mendenhall and Lemon Creek Watersheds, in the Juneau area, on the margins of the Juneau Icefield. These watersheds are studied for both 1. long term monitoring of changes, and 2. detection and analysis of transient events (such as glacier lake outburst floods). The diverse sensors (meteorological, dual frequency GPS, water quality, lake level, etc), power and bandwidth constraints, and competing time scales of interest require autonomous reactivity of the sensor web. The sensors are deployed throughout two partially glaciated watersheds and facilitated data acquisition in temperate rain forest, alpine, lacustrine, and glacial environments. Understanding these environments is important for public understanding of climate change. These environments are geographically isolated, limiting public access to, and understanding of, such locales. In an effort to inform the general public and primary educators about the basic processes occurring in these unique natural systems, we have developed an interactive website. This web portal supplements and enhances environmental science primary education by providing educators and students with interactive access to basic information from the glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological systems we are studying. In addition, we have developed an interactive virtual tour of the Lemon Glacier and its watershed. The focus of this presentation is using the data gathered by the SEAMONSTER sensor web, coupled with a temperature-indexed glacial melt model, to educate students and the public on topics ranging from modeling responses due to environmental changes to glacial hydrology. The interactive SEAMONSTER web site is the primary source for visualizing the data, while Google Earth can be used to visualize the isolated Lemon Creek watershed

  17. Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

    2016-05-01

    The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc

  18. A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

    2017-01-01

    We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

  19. Towards Integration of Ecosystem and Human Health: A Novel Conceptual Framework to Operationalise Ecological Public Health and to Incorporate Distal and Proximal Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, S.; Fleming, L. E.; Beck, S.; Austen, M.; Morris, G.; White, M.; Taylor, T. J.; Orr, N.; Osborne, N. J.; Depledge, M.

    2014-12-01

    Conceptual models for problem framing in environmental (EIA) and health impact assessment (HIA) share similar concepts, but differ in their scientific or policy focus, methodologies and underlying causal chains, and the degree of complexity and scope. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework used by the European Environment Agency, the OECD and others and the Integrated Science for Society and the Environment (ISSE) frameworks are widely applied in policy appraisal and impact assessments. While DPSIR is applied across different policy domains, the ISSE framework is used in Ecosystem Services assessments. The modified Driver-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) model extends DPSIR by separating exposure from effect, adding context as a modifier of effect, and susceptibility to exposures due to socio-economic, demographic or other determinants. While continuously evolving, the application of conceptual frameworks in policy appraisals mainly occurs within established discipline boundaries. However, drivers and environmental states, as well as policy measures and actions, affect both human and ecosystem receptors. Furthermore, unintended consequences of policy actions are seldom constrained within discipline or policy silos. Thus, an integrated conceptual model is needed, accounting for the full causal chain affecting human and ecosystem health in any assessment. We propose a novel model integrating HIA methods and ecosystem services in an attempt to operationalise the emerging concept of "Ecological Public Health." The conceptual approach of the ecosystem-enriched DPSEEA model ("eDPSEEA") has stimulated wide-spread debates and feedback. We will present eDPSEEA as a stakeholder engagement process and a conceptual model, using illustrative case studies of climate change as a starting point, not a complete solution, for the integration of human and ecosystem health impact assessment as a key challenge in a rapidly changing world. Rayner G and

  20. Transdisciplinary knowledge integration : cases from integrated assessment and vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinkel, J.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: climate change, integrated assessment, knowledge integration, transdisciplinary research, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment.
    This thesis explores how transdisciplinary knowledge integration can be facilitated in the context of integrated assessments and vulnerability

  1. Development of Web GIS for complex processing and visualization of climate geospatial datasets as an integral part of dedicated Virtual Research Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, Evgeny; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    For comprehensive usage of large geospatial meteorological and climate datasets it is necessary to create a distributed software infrastructure based on the spatial data infrastructure (SDI) approach. Currently, it is generally accepted that the development of client applications as integrated elements of such infrastructure should be based on the usage of modern web and GIS technologies. The paper describes the Web GIS for complex processing and visualization of geospatial (mainly in NetCDF and PostGIS formats) datasets as an integral part of the dedicated Virtual Research Environment for comprehensive study of ongoing and possible future climate change, and analysis of their implications, providing full information and computing support for the study of economic, political and social consequences of global climate change at the global and regional levels. The Web GIS consists of two basic software parts: 1. Server-side part representing PHP applications of the SDI geoportal and realizing the functionality of interaction with computational core backend, WMS/WFS/WPS cartographical services, as well as implementing an open API for browser-based client software. Being the secondary one, this part provides a limited set of procedures accessible via standard HTTP interface. 2. Front-end part representing Web GIS client developed according to a "single page application" technology based on JavaScript libraries OpenLayers (http://openlayers.org/), ExtJS (https://www.sencha.com/products/extjs), GeoExt (http://geoext.org/). It implements application business logic and provides intuitive user interface similar to the interface of such popular desktop GIS applications, as uDIG, QuantumGIS etc. Boundless/OpenGeo architecture was used as a basis for Web-GIS client development. According to general INSPIRE requirements to data visualization Web GIS provides such standard functionality as data overview, image navigation, scrolling, scaling and graphical overlay, displaying map

  2. Integrating Remote Sensing, Field Observations, and Models to Understand Disturbance and Climate Effects on the Carbon Balance of the West Coast U.S.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    B.E. Law; D. Turner; M. Goeckede

    2010-06-01

    GOAL: To develop and apply an approach to quantify and understand the regional carbon balance of the west coast states for the North American Carbon Program. OBJECTIVE: As an element of NACP research, the proposed investigation is a two pronged approach that derives and evaluates a regional carbon (C) budget for Oregon, Washington, and California. Objectives are (1) Use multiple data sources, including AmeriFlux data, inventories, and multispectral remote sensing data to investigate trends in carbon storage and exchanges of CO2 and water with variation in climate and disturbance history; (2) Develop and apply regional modeling that relies on these multiple data sources to reduce uncertainty in spatial estimates of carbon storage and NEP, and relative contributions of terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric CO2 in the region; (3) Model terrestrial carbon processes across the region, using the Biome-BGC terrestrial ecosystem model, and an atmospheric inverse modeling approach to estimate variation in rate and timing of terrestrial uptake and feedbacks to the atmosphere in response to climate and disturbance. APPROACH: In performing the regional analysis, the research plan for the bottom-up approach uses a nested hierarchy of observations that include AmeriFlux data (i.e., net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from eddy covariance and associated biometric data), intermediate intensity inventories from an extended plot array partially developed from the PI's previous research, Forest Service FIA and CVS inventory data, time since disturbance, disturbance type, and cover type from Landsat developed in this study, and productivity estimates from MODIS algorithms. The BIOME-BGC model is used to integrate information from these sources and quantify C balance across the region. The inverse modeling approach assimilates flux data from AmeriFlux sites, high precision CO2 concentration data from AmeriFlux towers and four new calibrated CO2 sites

  3. An integrated wave modelling framework for extreme and rare events for climate change in coastal areas – the case of Rethymno, Crete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasiliki K. Tsoukala

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Coastal floods are regarded as among the most dangerous and harmful of all natural disasters affecting urban areas adjacent to the shorelines. Rapid urbanization combined with climate change and poor governance often results in significant increase of flood risk, especially for coastal communities. Wave overtopping and wave run-up are the key mechanisms for monitoring the results of coastal flooding and as such, significant efforts are currently focusing on their predicting. In this paper, an integrated methodology is proposed, accounting for wave overtopping and wave run-up under extreme wave scenarios caused by storm surges. By taking advantage of past and future climatic projections of wind data, a downscaling approach is proposed, utilizing a number of appropriate numerical models than can simulate the wave propagation from offshore up to the swash zone. The coastal zone of Rethymno in Greece is selected as a case study area and simulations of wave characteristics with the model SWAN for the period 1960–2100 in the offshore region are presented. These data are given as boundary conditions to further numerical models (MIKE21 PMS and HD in order to investigate the spatial evolution of the wave and the hydrodynamic field in intermediate and shallow waters. Finally, the calculated wave height serves as input to empirical formulas and time dependent wave propagation models (MIKE21 BW to estimate the wave run-up and wave overtopping (EurOtop. It is suggested that the proposed procedure is generic enough to be applicable to any similar region.

  4. The role of grid-connected, building-integrated photovoltaic generation in commercial building energy and power loads in a warm and sunny climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, P.; Ruether, R.

    2010-01-01

    For large commercial buildings, power load delivery limits are contracted with the local electricity distribution utility, and are usually fixed at one or more levels over the year, according to the seasonal building loads, and depending on the specific country regulations. Especially in warm and sunny climates, solar electricity generation using building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) can assist in reducing commercial building loads, offering peak-shaving (power) benefits on top of the on-site generation of electricity (energy). This on-site power delivery capability gives these consumers the possibility of renegotiating demand contracts with their distribution utility. Commercial buildings that operate during daytime quite often have an energy consumption profile that is well matched by solar radiation availability, and depending on the building's available surface areas, BIPV can generate considerable portions of the energy requirements. In this work we present the role of grid-connected BIPV in reducing the load demands of a large and urban commercial building located in a warm climate in Brazil. The building and adjacent car parking lots can accommodate a 1 MWp BIPV generator, which closely matches the building's typical maximum power demands. Based on real solar radiation data and simultaneous building electricity demands for the year 2007, simulation of the annual solar generation profile of this on-site generator showed that the 1 MWp BIPV system could account for around 30% of the total building's energy consumption. In addition to the energy benefit, maximum power demands were reduced due to a good match between midday air-conditioning cooling loads and solar radiation availability on both a daily and seasonal basis. Furthermore, we have simulated the effect of this considerably large urban-sited generator on the local distribution network load, and have shown that the 1 MWp BIPV installation can also offer considerable benefits to the local utility in

  5. Measuring the Effects of Disturbance & Climate on the CO2 & Energy Exchange of Ponderosa Pine Forests in the Pacific Northwest: Integration of Eddy Flux, Plant and Soil Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beverly E. Law; Larry Mahrt

    2007-01-05

    The goal is to quantify and understand the influence of climate and disturbance on ecosystem processes and thus net carbon uptake by forests. The objective is to combine tower and ground-based observations to quantify the effects of disturbance on processes controlling carbon storage and CO{sub 2} and energy exchange in varying climatic conditions. Specific objectives are: (1) Investigate the effects of logging and fire on carbon storage and carbon dioxide and energy exchange in chronosequences of ponderosa pine, using consistent methodology; (2) Determine key environmental factors controlling carbon storage and carbon dioxide and energy exchange in these forests through a combination of measurements and process modeling; and (3) Assess spatial variation of the concentrations and transport in complex terrain. The eddy covariance method is used for measurements of CO2, water vapor, and energy exchanges in a chronosequence of ponderosa pine forests (burned in 2002 wildfire, 10 year-old stand, 90 year-old mature stand). The mature stand has been an AmeriFlux site since 2000 (following previous flux sites in young and old stands initiated in 1996). In addition to the eddy covariance measurements, a large suite of biological processes and ecosystem properties are determined for the purpose of developing independent forest carbon budgets and NEP estimates; these include photosynthesis, stand respiration, soil CO{sub 2} fluxes, annual litterfall, foliar chemistry, and bole increment, and soil organic matter among other parameters. The measurements are being integrated and evaluated with two ecosystem models (BIOME-BGC and SPA). Such analyses are needed to assess regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgets. The results will contribute scientific understanding of carbon processes, and will provide comprehensive data sets for forest managers and those preparing national carbon inventories to use in assessments of carbon sequestration in relation to interannual climate

  6. A new approach for assessing integrated potential conditions of soil and climate for the cultivation of vines in the Azores Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madruga, João; Azevedo, Eduardo; Reis, Francisco; Sampaio, João; Pinheiro, Jorge; Madeira, Manuel

    2014-05-01

    Being fairly common belief that the particular soil conditions are of great importance in defining the characteristics and qualities of the wine as the final product, it is also recognized the difficulty of establishing and interpreting this relationship clearly. The geological diversity seems to correlate with the characteristics defined in accordance with the classification system employed in France Appellation d' Origine Contrôlée (AOC), suggesting that, in addition to the variety and climate, geology and soil play an important role the properties and characteristics of the grapes produced in a given geographical location. Moreover, although it is known that the vine is tailored to a wide diversity of soil types, it appears also that many of the world's most famous vineyards are installed in poor and rocky terrain where no other crop would be grown in favorable conditions. Such is the case almost extreme implanted in the land of "cracker " and " Lagido " which are the traditional names in the archipelago of the Azores to the cracked surfaces of basaltic lava fields of heterogeneous size ranging from gravel to blocks of Azorean vineyards, whose vines manage to substrate cracks survival and production, albeit in modest yields. Apart from this traditional model of Azorean "terroir" of recognized cultural and landscape value where some interesting wines have been produced and quality recognized, there are significant areas in the islands whose soil and climate and physiographic characteristics suggest a potential for wine production that deserves to be the object of careful assessment, with a view to a possible study of integrated experimental basis. We refer specifically to landscape units of the lower area of some islands, in many cases presently devoted to pasture during the summer where productivity tends to be marginal, because strongly affected by water stress. Such areas preferably South exposed and of gentle slopes providing moderate exposure to the

  7. Climatic chamber ergometer

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Atkins, AR

    1968-01-01

    Full Text Available The design and calibration of an ergometer for exercising subjects during calorimetric studies in the climate chamber, are described. The ergometer is built into the climatic chamber and forms an integral part of the whole instrumentation system foe...

  8. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

    2014-01-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

  9. Pliocene climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.

    2010-01-01

    The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

  10. Energy policy for integrating the building environmental performance model of an air conditioned building in a subtropical climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mui, K.W.

    2006-01-01

    For an air conditioned building, the major electricity consumption is by the heating, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. As energy saving strategies may be in conflict with the criteria of indoor air quality and thermal comfort, a concept of the building environmental performance model (BEPM) has been developed to optimize energy consumption in HVAC systems without any deterioration of the indoor air quality and thermal comfort. The BEPM is divided into two main modules: the adaptive comfort temperature (ACT) module and the new demand control ventilation (nDCV) module. This study aims to enhance and prompt the conventional operation of the air side systems by incorporating temperature reset with the adaptive comfort temperature control and the new demand control ventilation system in high rise buildings in Hong Kong. A new example weather year (1991) was established as a reference to compute the energy use of HVAC systems in buildings in order to obtain more representative data for predicting annual energy consumption. A survey of 165 Hong Kong office buildings was conducted and it provided valuable information on the existing HVAC design values in different grades of private commercial buildings in Hong Kong. It was found that the actual measured values of indoor temperature were lower than the design ones. Furthermore, with the new example weather year and the integration of the BEPM into Grade A private office buildings in Hong Kong, the total energy saving of the air conditioning systems was calculated (i.e. a saving of HK$122 million in electrical consumption per year) while the thermal comfort for the occupants was also maintained

  11. Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

  12. Learning-Based Research: The Re-Integration of Learning Styles into STEM Research Through the Context of Solar Energy and Climate Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosman, L.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation will provide an overview of a NASA NICE-T funded research project at the College of Menominee Nation, a small federally recognized Tribal College located in northern Wisconsin. One main objective of the research project is to provide an experiential learning opportunity for 4-6 STEM students to construct a user friendly solar energy system evaluation tool, incorporating the real-world performance of different solar modules at Argonne National Laboratory, NASA weather and solar irradiation data, and detailed cost analysis and investment payback period. A natural connection exists between Native Americans and renewable energy. The generally clean character of renewable energies provides a great synergy and complimentary attribute for Native Americans' respect and pride for the environment and the overarching concern for future generations (Council, Pierce et al. 2000). Furthermore, Native American cultures have a strong creative and artistic focus, often motivated by their respect and appreciation for nature. The purpose of this learning-based research is to apply a cross-disciplinary approach to integrate the humanities with STEM research within the context of solar energy and climate literacy. Using 7 different learning styles (visual, aural, verbal, physical, logical, social, and solitary), students have the opportunity to showcase their research efforts through a variety of modes and artifacts including graphic novel development (Visual), spoken word poetry (Aural), conference presentation (Verbal), experiential display and demonstration (Physical), debate (Logical), social media and viral messaging (Social), and article submission (Solitary).

  13. Assessing the impacts of droughts and heat waves at thermoelectric power plants in the United States using integrated regression, thermodynamic, and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret A. Cook

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent droughts and heat waves have revealed the vulnerability of some power plants to effects from higher temperature intake water for cooling. In this evaluation, we develop a methodology for predicting whether power plants are at risk of violating thermal pollution limits. We begin by developing a regression model of average monthly intake temperatures for open loop and recirculating cooling pond systems. We then integrate that information into a thermodynamic model of energy flows within each power plant to determine the change in cooling water temperature that occurs at each plant and the relationship of that water temperature to other plants in the river system. We use these models together with climate change models to estimate the monthly effluent temperature at twenty-six power plants in the Upper Mississippi River Basin and Texas between 2015 and 2035 to predict which ones are at risk of reaching t