Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

Sustainable BECCS pathways evaluated by an integrated assessment model

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.

2017-12-01

Negative emissions technologies, particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), are key components of mitigation strategies in ambitious future socioeconomic scenarios analysed by integrated assessment models. Generally, scenarios aiming to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Also, in the context of Paris agreement which acknowledges "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century", RD&D for the negative emissions technologies in this decade has a crucial role for the possibility of early deployment of the technology. Because of the requirement of potentially extensive use of land and water for producing the bioenergy feedstock to get the anticipated level of gross negative emissions, researches on how to develop sustainable scenarios of BECCS is needed. Here, we present BECCS deployment scenarios that consider economically viable flow of bioenergy system including power generation and conversion process to liquid and gaseous fuels for transportation and heat with consideration of sustainable global biomass use. In the modelling process, detailed bioenergy representations, i.e. various feedstock and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment (IA) model GRAPE (Global Relationship Assessment to Protect the Environment). Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about assumed future agricultural yield between 'top-down' IA models and 'bottom-up' estimates, which would crucially affect the land-use pattern, we applied yields change of food and energy crops consistent with process-based biophysical crop models in consideration of changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable bioenergy and BECCS flow are evaluated in the scenarios targeting to keep global average

Application of an Integrated Assessment Model to the Kevin Dome site, Montana

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, Minh [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States); Zhang, Ye [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States); Carey, James William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Stauffer, Philip H. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-10-30

The objectives of the Integrated Assessment Model is to enable the Fault Swarm algorithm in the National Risk Assessment Partnership, ensure faults are working in the NRAP-IAM tool, calculate hypothetical fault leakage in NRAP-IAM, and compare leakage rates to Eclipse simulations.

Repository Integration Program: RIP performance assessment and strategy evaluation model theory manual and user`s guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-11-01

This report describes the theory and capabilities of RIP (Repository Integration Program). RIP is a powerful and flexible computational tool for carrying out probabilistic integrated total system performance assessments for geologic repositories. The primary purpose of RIP is to provide a management tool for guiding system design and site characterization. In addition, the performance assessment model (and the process of eliciting model input) can act as a mechanism for integrating the large amount of available information into a meaningful whole (in a sense, allowing one to keep the ``big picture`` and the ultimate aims of the project clearly in focus). Such an integration is useful both for project managers and project scientists. RIP is based on a `` top down`` approach to performance assessment that concentrates on the integration of the entire system, and utilizes relatively high-level descriptive models and parameters. The key point in the application of such a ``top down`` approach is that the simplified models and associated high-level parameters must incorporate an accurate representation of their uncertainty. RIP is designed in a very flexible manner such that details can be readily added to various components of the model without modifying the computer code. Uncertainty is also handled in a very flexible manner, and both parameter and model (process) uncertainty can be explicitly considered. Uncertainty is propagated through the integrated PA model using an enhanced Monte Carlo method. RIP must rely heavily on subjective assessment (expert opinion) for much of its input. The process of eliciting the high-level input parameters required for RIP is critical to its successful application. As a result, in order for any project to successfully apply a tool such as RIP, an enormous amount of communication and cooperation must exist between the data collectors, the process modelers, and the performance. assessment modelers.

An integrated model for the Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways in China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cai, Hao

2011-01-01

In China, environmental issues caused by construction and operation of highway catch more and more attention, and thus environmental impact assessment of highway has become an important part of feasibility study. According to the Specifications for Environmental Impact Assessment of Highways...... in the People's Republic of China, this paper proposes an integrated model for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of highway. The model has two main characteristics. Firstly, the whole highway is divided into several sections, and then weight of each section is distributed by its importance. Secondly...

Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

Science.gov (United States)

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

A comparison of Capri and SEAMLESS-IFas Integrated Modelling Systems, Chapter 11 in Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Britz, W.; Perez Dominguez, I.; Heckelei, T.

2010-01-01

SEAMLESS-IF and CAPRI are both integrated agricultural modelling systems for policy impact assessment at EU level, linking model components across scales and between the economic and bio-physical domains. However, the overall design, focus and representation of agricultural sub-systems vary between

Decomposing passenger transport futures : Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Edelenbosch, O. Y.; McCollum, D. L.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Bertram, C.; Carrara, S.; Daly, H.; Fujimori, S.; Kitous, A.; Kyle, P.; Ó Broin, E.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Sano, F.

The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

An integrated urban drainage system model for assessing renovation scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, X; Zeng, S; Chen, J; Zhao, D

2012-01-01

Due to sustained economic growth in China over the last three decades, urbanization has been on a rapidly expanding track. In recent years, regional industrial relocations were also accelerated across the country from the east coast to the west inland. These changes have led to a large-scale redesign of urban infrastructures, including the drainage system. To help the reconstructed infrastructures towards a better sustainability, a tool is required for assessing the efficiency and environmental performance of different renovation schemes. This paper developed an integrated dynamic modeling tool, which consisted of three models for describing the sewer, the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and the receiving water body respectively. Three auxiliary modules were also incorporated to conceptualize the model, calibrate the simulations, and analyze the results. The developed integrated modeling tool was applied to a case study in Shenzhen City, which is one of the most dynamic cities and facing considerable challenges for environmental degradation. The renovation scheme proposed to improve the environmental performance of Shenzhen City's urban drainage system was modeled and evaluated. The simulation results supplied some suggestions for the further improvement of the renovation scheme.

Transdisciplinary knowledge integration : cases from integrated assessment and vulnerability assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hinkel, J.

2008-01-01

Keywords: climate change, integrated assessment, knowledge integration, transdisciplinary research, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment.
This thesis explores how transdisciplinary knowledge integration can be facilitated in the context of integrated assessments and vulnerability

A time dependent zonally averaged energy balance model to be incorporated into IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). Collaborative Paper

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonas, M.; Olendrzynski, K.; Elzen, M. den

1991-10-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is placing increasing emphasis on the use of time-dependent impact models that are linked with energy-emission accounting frameworks and models that predict in a time-dependent fashion important variables such as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, surface temperature and precipitation. Integrating these tools (greenhouse gas emission strategies, atmospheric processes, ecological impacts) into what is called an integrated assessment model will assist policymakers in the IPCC and elsewhere to assess the impacts of a wide variety of emission strategies. The Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE; developed at RIVM) represents such an integrated assessment model which already calculates historical and future effects of greenhouse gas emissions on global surface temperature, sea level rise and other ecological and socioeconomic impacts. However, to be linked to environmental impact models such as the Global Vegetation Model and the Timber Assessment Model, both of which are under development at RIVM and IIASA, IMAGE needs to be regionalized in terms of temperature and precipitation output. These key parameters will then enable the above environmental impact models to be run in a time-dependent mode. In this paper we lay the scientific and numerical basis for a two-dimensional Energy Balance Model (EBM) to be integrated into the climate module of IMAGE which will ultimately provide scenarios of surface temperature and precipitation, resolved with respect to latitude and height. This paper will deal specifically with temperature; following papers will deal with precipitation. So far, the relatively simple EBM set up in this paper resolves mean annual surface temperatures on a regional scale defined by 10 deg latitude bands. In addition, we can concentrate on the implementation of the EBM into IMAGE, i.e., on the steering mechanism itself. Both reasons justify the time and effort put into

Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

2000-07-01

This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

Integrating Machine Learning into a Crowdsourced Model for Earthquake-Induced Damage Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rebbapragada, Umaa; Oommen, Thomas

2011-01-01

On January 12th, 2010, a catastrophic 7.0M earthquake devastated the country of Haiti. In the aftermath of an earthquake, it is important to rapidly assess damaged areas in order to mobilize the appropriate resources. The Haiti damage assessment effort introduced a promising model that uses crowdsourcing to map damaged areas in freely available remotely-sensed data. This paper proposes the application of machine learning methods to improve this model. Specifically, we apply work on learning from multiple, imperfect experts to the assessment of volunteer reliability, and propose the use of image segmentation to automate the detection of damaged areas. We wrap both tasks in an active learning framework in order to shift volunteer effort from mapping a full catalog of images to the generation of high-quality training data. We hypothesize that the integration of machine learning into this model improves its reliability, maintains the speed of damage assessment, and allows the model to scale to higher data volumes.

Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ewert, F.; Rötter, R. P.; Bindi, M.; Weber, H.; Trnka, Miroslav; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; van Ittersum, M. K.; Janssen, S.; Rivingtom, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J. R.; Stewart, D.; Vegahen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palouso, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P. P.; Bartošová, Lenka; Asseng, S.

2015-01-01

Roč. 72, oct (2015), s. 287-303 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : uncertainty * scaling * integrated assessment * risk assessment * adaptation * crop models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.207, year: 2015

Strategic environmental assessment policy integration model for solid waste management in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Victor, Dennis; Agamuthu, P.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We identified policy drivers of SEA in solid waste policy planning. • The SEA primary policy drivers are benefits, barriers and enablers need. • The SEA sub-drivers are environmental attitude and environmental awareness. • Optimal SEA policy integration requires public participation and capacity building. • SEA integration should be a long-term sustainable policy strategy for SWM. -- Abstract: This paper examines the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) systemic policy drivers for solid waste management (SWM) policies, plans and programmes (PPP) in Malaysia. Solid waste generation in Malaysia has been increasing drastically from 9.0 million tonnes in 2000 to an expected 15.6 million tonnes in 2020. This projected rate of solid waste generation is expected to burden the country's environmental and water quality resources. The key problem the study frames is the lack of environmental integration in the SWM process which is only conducted during the environmental impact assessments (EIA) stage of SWM facilities. The purpose of this study is to expand the SEA subject knowledge by validating a behaviour based theoretical framework and identifying key policy drivers that influence the integration of SEA in SWM policy planning. The study methodology utilized a confirmatory covariance based structural equation modelling approach to validate the proposed theoretical model based on the policy makers/implementers interview questionnaire data collection. The study findings indicate five latent SEA policy drivers which were named policy knowledge, environmental attitude, perceived benefits, perceived barriers and perceived enablers. The study has conceptualized and tested a SEA policy model which indicates that SEA integration behaviour is influenced directly by three main drivers (perception of benefits, perception of barriers and perception of enablers) and influenced indirectly by two sub-drivers environmental attitude and environmental knowledge

Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

Science.gov (United States)

Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

Performance assessment of sealing systems. Conceptual and integrated modelling of plugs and seals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruebel, Andre; Buhmann, Dieter; Kindlein, Jonathan; Lauke, Thomas

2016-08-15

The long-time isolation of radionuclides from the biosphere is the goal of the storage of radioactive waste in deep geological repositories. For repositories in rock salt, this goal is achieved on the one hand by the impermeable undisturbed part of the salt host rock formation and on the other hand by crushed salt, which is used to backfill the mine openings in the emplacement areas and galleries created during the construction of the repository. The crushed salt backfill is compacted over time and achieves a sufficiently high hydraulic resistance to avoid inflow of brines into the emplacement areas of the repository in the long-term. Plugs and seals must additionally provide their sealing function during the early post closure phase, until the compaction of the backfill is adequate and the permeability of the backfill is sufficiently low. To assess the future development of the waste repository, an adequate knowledge of the material behaviour is necessary and related mathematical models must be developed to be able to perform predictions on the long-term safety of the repository. An integrated performance assessment model was formulated that describes the long-term behaviour of a sealing built from salt concrete. The average permeability of the sealing changes with time after its emplacement from various processes of which two were regarded in a constitutive model: first, the healing of the EDZ in the host rock around the sealing, and second, the corrosion of the salt concrete material resulting from brine attack. Empirical parameter model functions were defined for both processes to reflect the actual behaviour. The mathematical model was implemented in the integrated performance assessment model LOPOS which is used by GRS as near-field model for repositories in salt. Deterministic and probabilistic calculations were performed with realistic parameters showing how the permeability of the sealing decreases during the first 2 000 years due to the healing of the EDZ

Performance assessment of sealing systems. Conceptual and integrated modelling of plugs and seals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruebel, Andre; Buhmann, Dieter; Kindlein, Jonathan; Lauke, Thomas

2016-08-01

The long-time isolation of radionuclides from the biosphere is the goal of the storage of radioactive waste in deep geological repositories. For repositories in rock salt, this goal is achieved on the one hand by the impermeable undisturbed part of the salt host rock formation and on the other hand by crushed salt, which is used to backfill the mine openings in the emplacement areas and galleries created during the construction of the repository. The crushed salt backfill is compacted over time and achieves a sufficiently high hydraulic resistance to avoid inflow of brines into the emplacement areas of the repository in the long-term. Plugs and seals must additionally provide their sealing function during the early post closure phase, until the compaction of the backfill is adequate and the permeability of the backfill is sufficiently low. To assess the future development of the waste repository, an adequate knowledge of the material behaviour is necessary and related mathematical models must be developed to be able to perform predictions on the long-term safety of the repository. An integrated performance assessment model was formulated that describes the long-term behaviour of a sealing built from salt concrete. The average permeability of the sealing changes with time after its emplacement from various processes of which two were regarded in a constitutive model: first, the healing of the EDZ in the host rock around the sealing, and second, the corrosion of the salt concrete material resulting from brine attack. Empirical parameter model functions were defined for both processes to reflect the actual behaviour. The mathematical model was implemented in the integrated performance assessment model LOPOS which is used by GRS as near-field model for repositories in salt. Deterministic and probabilistic calculations were performed with realistic parameters showing how the permeability of the sealing decreases during the first 2 000 years due to the healing of the EDZ

Developing an Integrated Model Framework for the Assessment of Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal Limits for Bioenergy Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

David Muth, Jr.; Jared Abodeely; Richard Nelson; Douglas McCorkle; Joshua Koch; Kenneth Bryden

2011-08-01

Agricultural residues have significant potential as a feedstock for bioenergy production, but removing these residues can have negative impacts on soil health. Models and datasets that can support decisions about sustainable agricultural residue removal are available; however, no tools currently exist capable of simultaneously addressing all environmental factors that can limit availability of residue. The VE-Suite model integration framework has been used to couple a set of environmental process models to support agricultural residue removal decisions. The RUSLE2, WEPS, and Soil Conditioning Index models have been integrated. A disparate set of databases providing the soils, climate, and management practice data required to run these models have also been integrated. The integrated system has been demonstrated for two example cases. First, an assessment using high spatial fidelity crop yield data has been run for a single farm. This analysis shows the significant variance in sustainably accessible residue across a single farm and crop year. A second example is an aggregate assessment of agricultural residues available in the state of Iowa. This implementation of the integrated systems model demonstrates the capability to run a vast range of scenarios required to represent a large geographic region.

A web GIS based integrated flood assessment modeling tool for coastal urban watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, A. T.; Mohanty, J.; Eldho, T. I.; Rao, E. P.; Mohan, B. K.

2014-03-01

Urban flooding has become an increasingly important issue in many parts of the world. In this study, an integrated flood assessment model (IFAM) is presented for the coastal urban flood simulation. A web based GIS framework has been adopted to organize the spatial datasets for the study area considered and to run the model within this framework. The integrated flood model consists of a mass balance based 1-D overland flow model, 1-D finite element based channel flow model based on diffusion wave approximation and a quasi 2-D raster flood inundation model based on the continuity equation. The model code is written in MATLAB and the application is integrated within a web GIS server product viz: Web Gram Server™ (WGS), developed at IIT Bombay, using Java, JSP and JQuery technologies. Its user interface is developed using open layers and the attribute data are stored in MySQL open source DBMS. The model is integrated within WGS and is called via Java script. The application has been demonstrated for two coastal urban watersheds of Navi Mumbai, India. Simulated flood extents for extreme rainfall event of 26 July, 2005 in the two urban watersheds of Navi Mumbai city are presented and discussed. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of the flood simulation tool in a web GIS environment to facilitate data access and visualization of GIS datasets and simulation results.

Uncertainty assessment of integrated distributed hydrological models using GLUE with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blasone, Roberta-Serena; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2008-01-01

uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied in order to improve the performance of the methodology in estimating parameters and posterior output distributions. The description of the spatial variations of the hydrological processes is accounted for by defining......In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of distributed, physically-based and integrated hydrological models. Many questions regarding how to properly calibrate and validate distributed models and assess the uncertainty of the estimated parameters and the spatially......-site validation must complement the usual time validation. In this study, we develop, through an application, a comprehensive framework for multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty assessment of distributed physically-based, integrated hydrological models. A revised version of the generalized likelihood...

Transport fuel demand responses to fuel price and income projections : Comparison of integrated assessment models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Edelenbosch, O. Y.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Bertram, C.; Carrara, S.; Emmerling, J.; Daly, H.; Kitous, A.; McCollum, D. L.; Saadi Failali, N.

Income and fuel price pathways are key determinants in projections of the energy system in integrated assessment models. In recent years, more details have been added to the transport sector representation in these models. To better understand the model dynamics, this manuscript analyses transport

An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Hanasaki

2008-07-01

Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km³ and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

Intrinsic ethics regarding integrated assessment models for climate management.

Science.gov (United States)

Schienke, Erich W; Baum, Seth D; Tuana, Nancy; Davis, Kenneth J; Keller, Klaus

2011-09-01

In this essay we develop and argue for the adoption of a more comprehensive model of research ethics than is included within current conceptions of responsible conduct of research (RCR). We argue that our model, which we label the ethical dimensions of scientific research (EDSR), is a more comprehensive approach to encouraging ethically responsible scientific research compared to the currently typically adopted approach in RCR training. This essay focuses on developing a pedagogical approach that enables scientists to better understand and appreciate one important component of this model, what we call intrinsic ethics. Intrinsic ethical issues arise when values and ethical assumptions are embedded within scientific findings and analytical methods. Through a close examination of a case study and its application in teaching, namely, evaluation of climate change integrated assessment models, this paper develops a method and case for including intrinsic ethics within research ethics training to provide scientists with a comprehensive understanding and appreciation of the critical role of values and ethical choices in the production of research outcomes.

Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model

KAUST Repository

Ajami, Hoori; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, Jason P.; Stisen, Simon

2014-01-01

is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km

Instruments to assess integrated care

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyngsø, Anne Marie; Godtfredsen, Nina Skavlan; Høst, Dorte

2014-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Although several measurement instruments have been developed to measure the level of integrated health care delivery, no standardised, validated instrument exists covering all aspects of integrated care. The purpose of this review is to identify the instruments concerning how to mea...... was prevalent. It is uncertain whether development of a single 'all-inclusive' model for assessing integrated care is desirable. We emphasise the continuing need for validated instruments embedded in theoretical contexts.......INTRODUCTION: Although several measurement instruments have been developed to measure the level of integrated health care delivery, no standardised, validated instrument exists covering all aspects of integrated care. The purpose of this review is to identify the instruments concerning how...... to measure the level of integration across health-care sectors and to assess and evaluate the organisational elements within the instruments identified. METHODS: An extensive, systematic literature review in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, Web of Science for the years 1980-2011. Selected...

An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

Science.gov (United States)

Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

2012-12-01

Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of

Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

Science.gov (United States)

Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

2014-02-15

Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study protocol for a comparative effectiveness trial of two models of perinatal integrated psychosocial assessment: the PIPA project.

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, Nicole; Black, Emma; Chambers, Georgina M; Schmied, Virginia; Matthey, Stephen; Farrell, Josephine; Kingston, Dawn; Bisits, Andrew; Austin, Marie-Paule

2017-07-20

Studies examining psychosocial and depression assessment programs in maternity settings have not adequately considered the context in which psychosocial assessment occurs or how broader components of integrated care, including clinician decision-making aids, may optimise program delivery and its cost-effectiveness. There is also limited evidence relating to the diagnostic accuracy of symptom-based screening measures used in this context. The Perinatal Integrated Psychosocial Assessment (PIPA) Project was developed to address these knowledge gaps. The primary aims of the PIPA Project are to examine the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of two alternative models of integrated psychosocial care during pregnancy: 'care as usual' (the SAFE START model) and an alternative model (the PIPA model). The acceptability and perceived benefit of each model of care from the perspective of both pregnant women and their healthcare providers will also be assessed. Our secondary aim is to examine the psychometric properties of a number of symptom-based screening tools for depression and anxiety when used in pregnancy. This is a comparative-effectiveness study comparing 'care as usual' to an alternative model sequentially over two 12-month periods. Data will be collected from women at Time 1 (initial antenatal psychosocial assessment), Time 2 (2-weeks after Time 1) and from clinicians at Time 3 for each condition. Primary aims will be evaluated using a between-groups design, and the secondary aim using a within group design. The PIPA Project will provide evidence relating to the clinical- and cost- effectiveness of psychosocial assessment integrated with electronic clinician decision making prompts, and referral options that are tailored to the woman's psychosocial risk, in the maternity care setting. It will also address research recommendations from the Australian (2011) and NICE (2015) Clinical Practice Guidelines. ACTRN12617000932369.

Performance Assessment of a Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Site using GoldSim Integrated Systems Model

Science.gov (United States)

Merrell, G.; Singh, A.; Tauxe, J.; Perona, R.; Dornsife, W.; grisak, G. E.; Holt, R. M.

2011-12-01

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has approved licenses for four landfills at the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) site located in Andrews County, West Texas. The site includes a hazardous waste landfill and three landfills for radioactive waste. An updated performance assessment is necessary prior to acceptance of waste at the landfills. The updated performance assessment a) provides for more realistic and flexible dose modeling capabilities, b) addresses all plausible release and accident scenarios as they relate to the performance objectives, c) includes impact of climate and hydrologic scenarios that may impact long-term performance of the landfill, d) addresses impact of cover naturalization and degradation on the landfill, and e) incorporates uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for critical parameters. For the updated performance assessment, WCS has developed an integrated systems level performance assessment model using the GoldSim platform. GoldSim serves as a model for integrating all of the major components of a performance assessment, which include the radionuclide source term, facility design, environmental transport pathways, exposure scenarios, and radiological doses. Unlike many computer models that are based on first principles, GoldSim is a systems level model that can be used to integrate and abstract more complex sub-models into one system. This can then be used to assess the results into a unified model of the disposal system and environment. In this particular application, the GoldSim model consists of a) hydrogeologic model that simulates flow and transport through the Dockum geologic unit that underlies all of the waste facilities, b) waste cells that represent the containment unit and simulate degradation of waste forms, radionuclide leaching, and partitioning into the liquid and vapor phase within the waste unit, c) a cover system model that simulates upward diffusive transport from the underground repository to the atmosphere. In

Integrated assessment of the global warming problem. A decision-analytical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

1995-01-01

The project on the title subject aims at developing a policy-oriented methodology for the integrated assessment of the global warming problem. Decision analysis in general and influence diagrams in particular appear to constitute an appropriate integrated assessment methodology. The influence-diagram approach is illustrated at a preliminary integrated modeling of the global warming problem. In next stages of the research, attention will be shifted from the methodology of integrated assessment to the contents of integrated models. 4 figs., 5 refs

The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

Science.gov (United States)

Dessens, Olivier

2016-04-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

An integrated dynamic model for probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsueh, K.-S.; Wang Kong

2004-01-01

The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a simulation based accident sequence analysis program (ADS) for large scale dynamic accident sequence simulation. Human operators, front-line and support systems as well as plant thermal-hydraulic behavior are explicitly modeled as integrated active parts in the development of accident scenarios. To overcome the model size, the proposed methodology employs several techniques including use of 'initial state vector' which decouples time-dependent and time-independent factors, and a depth first integration method in which the computation memory demand increases in a linear order. The computer implementation of the method is capable of simulating up to 500 branch points in sequence development, models system failure during operation, allows for recovery from operator errors and hardware failures, and implements a simple model for operator system interactions. (author)

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Role of Integrated Modelling and Assessment for Decision-Making: Lessons from Water Allocation Issues in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Jakeman, A. J.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; El Sawah, S.; Hamilton, S.

2014-12-01

Integrated modelling and assessment (IMA) is best regarded as a process that can support environmental decision-making when issues are strongly contested and uncertainties pervasive. To be most useful, the process must be multi-dimensional and phased. Principally, it must be tailored to the problem context to encompass diverse issues of concern, management settings and stakeholders. This in turn requires the integration of multiple processes and components of natural and human systems and their corresponding spatial and temporal scales. Modellers therefore need to be able to integrate multiple disciplines, methods, models, tools and data, and many sources and types of uncertainty. These dimensions are incorporated into iteration between the various phases of the IMA process, including scoping, problem framing and formulation, assessing options and communicating findings. Two case studies in Australia are employed to share the lessons of how integration can be achieved in these IMA phases using a mix of stakeholder participation processes and modelling tools. One case study aims to improve the relevance of modelling by incorporating stakeholder's views of irrigated viticulture and water management decision making. It used a novel methodology with the acronym ICTAM, consisting of Interviews to elicit mental models, Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models, Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process, an All-encompassing conceptual model, and computational Models of stakeholder decision making. The second case uses a hydro-economic river network model to examine basin-wide impacts of water allocation cuts and adoption of farm innovations. The knowledge exchange approach used in each case was designed to integrate data and knowledge bearing in mind the contextual dimensions of the problem at hand, and the specific contributions that environmental modelling was thought to be able to make.

Development and assessment of an integrated ecological modelling framework to assess the effect of investments in wastewater treatment on water quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Holguin-Gonzalez, Javier E; Boets, Pieter; Everaert, Gert; Pauwels, Ine S; Lock, Koen; Gobeyn, Sacha; Benedetti, Lorenzo; Amerlinck, Youri; Nopens, Ingmar; Goethals, Peter L M

2014-01-01

Worldwide, large investments in wastewater treatment are made to improve water quality. However, the impacts of these investments on river water quality are often not quantified. To assess water quality, the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires an integrated approach. The aim of this study was to develop an integrated ecological modelling framework for the River Drava (Croatia) that includes physical-chemical and hydromorphological characteristics as well as the ecological river water quality status. The developed submodels and the integrated model showed accurate predictions when comparing the modelled results to the observations. Dissolved oxygen and nitrogen concentrations (ammonium and organic nitrogen) were the most important variables in determining the ecological water quality (EWQ). The result of three potential investment scenarios of the wastewater treatment infrastructure in the city of Varaždin on the EWQ of the River Drava was assessed. From this scenario-based analysis, it was concluded that upgrading the existing wastewater treatment plant with nitrogen and phosphorus removal will be insufficient to reach a good EWQ. Therefore, other point and diffuse pollution sources in the area should also be monitored and remediated to meet the European WFD standards.

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

IkusaSA. Integrated Assessment for Sustainability

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Scholes, RJ

2012-10-01

Full Text Available , have intended and unintended consequences across a range of important issues. The IkusaSA model system comprises: ? A South African national IAM nested within one or more ?state-of-the-art? global IAMs that predict trade, climate change and human... the country and internationally. The IkusaSA mission is to establish Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) in South Africa. The goal is to put in place the tools for an integrated planning approach and provide effective information sharing mechanisms...

A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

2004-01-14

Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

Development of integrated systems dynamics models for the sustainability assessment of nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Yacout, Abdellatif; Wade, Dave

2005-01-01

Nuclear energy is increasingly perceived as an attractive mature energy generation technology that can deliver an answer to the worldwide increasing energy demand while respecting environmental concerns as well as contributing to a reduced dependence on fossil fuel. Advancing nuclear energy deployment demands an assessment of nuclear energy with respect to all sustainability dimensions allowing full stakeholder involvement in deciding on the role of nuclear energy as part of a sustainable energy generation mix in the future. Integrated system dynamics models of nuclear energy systems are interesting tools for such assessment studies allowing performing material flow accounting, environmental impact, economic competitiveness and socio-political analysis and this for time-evolving nuclear energy systems. No single tool today is capable of covering all the dimensions for such integrated assessment while various developments are ongoing in different places around the world to make such tools available in the nearby future. Argonne National Laboratory has embarked on such tool development since the year 2000 and has developed various tools among which the DANESS-code shall be described in some more detail in this paper. (author)

Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

2016-10-15

Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision

Integrated assessment and environmental policy making. In pursuit of usefulness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E.A.

1995-01-01

Current integrated assessment projects primarily seek end to end integration through formal models at a national to global scale, and show three significant representational weaknesses: determinants of decadal-scale emissions trends; valuing impacts and adaptive response; and the formation and effects of policies. Meeting the needs of policy audiences may require other forms of integration; may require integration by formal modeling or by other means; and may require representing decisions of other actors through political and negotiating processes. While rational global environmental policy making requires integrated assessment, current practice admits no single vision of how to do it, so understanding will be best advanced by a diverse collection of projects pursuing distinct methods and approaches. Further practice may yield some consensus on best practice, possibly including generic assessment skills generalizable across issues. (Author)

Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cantore, Nicola

2011-01-01

The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

Integration of nursing assessment concepts into the medical entities dictionary using the LOINC semantic structure as a terminology model.

Science.gov (United States)

Cieslowski, B J; Wajngurt, D; Cimino, J J; Bakken, S

2001-01-01

Recent investigations have tested the applicability of various terminology models for the representing nursing concepts including those related to nursing diagnoses, nursing interventions, and standardized nursing assessments as a prerequisite for building a reference terminology that supports the nursing domain. We used the semantic structure of Clinical LOINC (Logical Observations, Identifiers, Names, and Codes) as a reference terminology model to support the integration of standardized assessment terms from two nursing terminologies into the Medical Entities Dictionary (MED), the concept-oriented, metadata dictionary at New York Presbyterian Hospital. Although the LOINC semantic structure was used previously to represent laboratory terms in the MED, selected hierarchies and semantic slots required revisions in order to incorporate the nursing assessment concepts. This project was an initial step in integrating nursing assessment concepts into the MED in a manner consistent with evolving standards for reference terminology models. Moreover, the revisions provide the foundation for adding other types of standardized assessments to the MED.

Exploring harmonization between integrated assessment and capacity expansion models

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, G.; Brown, M.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Patel, P.; Wise, M. A.; Horing, J.

2017-12-01

Forward-looking quantitative models of the electric sector are extensively used to provide science-based strategic decision support to national, international and private-sector entities. Given that these models are used to inform a wide-range of stakeholders and influence policy decisions, it is vital to examine how the models' underlying data and structure influence their outcomes. We conduct several experiments harmonizing key model characteristics between ReEDS—an electric sector only model, and GCAM—an integrated assessment model—to understand how different degrees of harmonization impact model outcomes. ReEDS has high spatial, temporal, and process detail but lacks electricity demand elasticity and endogenous representations of other economic sectors, while GCAM has internally consistent representations of energy (including the electric sector), agriculture, and land-use systems but relatively aggregate representations of the factors influencing electric sector investments . We vary the degree of harmonization in electricity demand, fuel prices, technology costs and performance, and variable renewable energy resource characteristics. We then identify the prominent sources of divergence in key outputs (electricity capacity, generation, and price) across the models and study how the convergence between models can be improved with permutations of harmonized characteristics. The remaining inconsistencies help to establish how differences in the models' underlying data, construction, perspective, and methodology play into each model's outcome. There are three broad contributions of this work. First, our study provides a framework to link models with similar scope but different resolutions. Second, our work provides insight into how the harmonization of assumptions contributes to a unified and robust portrayal of the US electricity sector under various potential futures. Finally, our study enhances the understanding of the influence of structural uncertainty

A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

2018-06-01

The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integration of Density Dependence and Concentration Response Models Provides an Ecologically Relevant Assessment of Populations Exposed to Toxicants

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment of toxic exposure on wildlife populations involves the integration of organism level effects measured in toxicity tests (e.g., chronic life cycle) and population models. These modeling exercises typically ignore density dependence, primarily because information on ...

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias

Model Uncertainty via the Integration of Hormesis and LNT as the Default in Cancer Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-01-01

On June 23, 2015, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a formal notice in the Federal Register that it would consider whether "it should amend its 'Standards for Protection Against Radiation' regulations from the linear non-threshold (LNT) model of radiation protection to the hormesis model." The present commentary supports this recommendation based on the (1) flawed and deceptive history of the adoption of LNT by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1956; (2) the documented capacity of hormesis to make more accurate predictions of biological responses for diverse biological end points in the low-dose zone; (3) the occurrence of extensive hormetic data from the peer-reviewed biomedical literature that revealed hormetic responses are highly generalizable, being independent of biological model, end point measured, inducing agent, level of biological organization, and mechanism; and (4) the integration of hormesis and LNT models via a model uncertainty methodology that optimizes public health responses at 10(-4). Thus, both LNT and hormesis can be integratively used for risk assessment purposes, and this integration defines the so-called "regulatory sweet spot."

The Integration and Abstracyion of EBS Models in Yucca Mountain Performance Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

S.D. Sevougian; V. Jain; A.V. Luik

2006-01-11

The safety strategy for geological disposal of radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain relies on a multi-barrier system to contain the waste and isolate it from the biosphere. The multi-barrier system consists of the natural barrier provided by the geological setting and the engineered barrier system (EBS). In the case of Yucca Mountain (YM) the geologic setting is the unsaturated-zone host rock, consisting of about 600 meters of layered ash-flow volcanic tuffs above the water table, and the saturated zone beneath the water table. Both the unsaturated and saturated rocks are part of a closed hydrologic basin in a desert surface environment. The waste is to be buried about halfway between the desert surface and the water table. The primary engineered barriers at YM consist of metal components that are highly durable in an oxidizing environment. The two primary components of the engineered barrier system are highly corrosion-resistant metal waste packages, made from a nickel-chromium-molybdenum alloy, Alloy 22, and titanium drip shields that protect the waste packages from corrosive dripping water and falling rocks. Design and performance assessment of the EBS requires models that describe how the EBS and near field behave under anticipated repository-relevant conditions. These models must describe coupled hydrologic, thermal, chemical, and mechanical (THCM) processes that drive radionuclide transport in a highly fractured host rock, consisting of a relatively permeable network of conductive fractures in a setting of highly impermeable tuff rock matrix. An integrated performance assessment of the EBS must include a quantification of the uncertainties that arise from (1) incomplete understanding of processes and (2) from lack of data representative of the large spatial scales and long time scales relevant to radioactive waste disposal (e.g., long-term metal corrosion rates and heterogeneities in rock properties over the large 5 km{sup 2} emplacement area of the repository

The Integration and Abstraction of EBS Models in Yucca Mountain Performance Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

S.D. Sevougian; V. Jain; A.V. Luik

2006-01-01

The safety strategy for geological disposal of radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain relies on a multi-barrier system to contain the waste and isolate it from the biosphere. The multi-barrier system consists of the natural barrier provided by the geological setting and the engineered barrier system (EBS). In the case of Yucca Mountain (YM) the geologic setting is the unsaturated-zone host rock, consisting of about 600 meters of layered ash-flow volcanic tuffs above the water table, and the saturated zone beneath the water table. Both the unsaturated and saturated rocks are part of a closed hydrologic basin in a desert surface environment. The waste is to be buried about halfway between the desert surface and the water table. The primary engineered barriers at YM consist of metal components that are highly durable in an oxidizing environment. The two primary components of the engineered barrier system are highly corrosion-resistant metal waste packages, made from a nickel-chromium-molybdenum alloy, Alloy 22, and titanium drip shields that protect the waste packages from corrosive dripping water and falling rocks. Design and performance assessment of the EBS requires models that describe how the EBS and near field behave under anticipated repository-relevant conditions. These models must describe coupled hydrologic, thermal, chemical, and mechanical (THCM) processes that drive radionuclide transport in a highly fractured host rock, consisting of a relatively permeable network of conductive fractures in a setting of highly impermeable tuff rock matrix. An integrated performance assessment of the EBS must include a quantification of the uncertainties that arise from (1) incomplete understanding of processes and (2) from lack of data representative of the large spatial scales and long time scales relevant to radioactive waste disposal (e.g., long-term metal corrosion rates and heterogeneities in rock properties over the large 5 km 2 emplacement area of the repository). A

Prospective and participatory integrated assessment of agricultural systems from farm to regional scales: Comparison of three modeling approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Delmotte, Sylvestre; Lopez-Ridaura, Santiago; Barbier, Jean-Marc; Wery, Jacques

2013-11-15

Evaluating the impacts of the development of alternative agricultural systems, such as organic or low-input cropping systems, in the context of an agricultural region requires the use of specific tools and methodologies. They should allow a prospective (using scenarios), multi-scale (taking into account the field, farm and regional level), integrated (notably multicriteria) and participatory assessment, abbreviated PIAAS (for Participatory Integrated Assessment of Agricultural System). In this paper, we compare the possible contribution to PIAAS of three modeling approaches i.e. Bio-Economic Modeling (BEM), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and statistical Land-Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) models. After a presentation of each approach, we analyze their advantages and drawbacks, and identify their possible complementarities for PIAAS. Statistical LUCC modeling is a suitable approach for multi-scale analysis of past changes and can be used to start discussion about the futures with stakeholders. BEM and ABM approaches have complementary features for scenarios assessment at different scales. While ABM has been widely used for participatory assessment, BEM has been rarely used satisfactorily in a participatory manner. On the basis of these results, we propose to combine these three approaches in a framework targeted to PIAAS. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Boehringer and Loeschel (2006)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scrieciu, S. Serban

2007-01-01

The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics (Boehringer, C., Loeschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.) claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed 'back-bone' tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base. (author)

Salting our landscape: An integrated catchment model using readily accessible data to assess emerging road salt contamination to streams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin Li; Whitehead, Paul; Siegel, Donald I.; Findlay, Stuart

2011-01-01

A new integrated catchment model for salinity has been developed to assess the transport of road salt from upland areas in watersheds to streams using readily accessible landscape, hydrologic, and meteorological data together with reported salt applications. We used Fishkill Creek (NY) as a representative watershed to test the model. Results showed good agreement between modeled and measured stream water chloride concentrations. These results suggest that a dominant mode of catchment simulation that does not entail complex deterministic modeling is an appropriate method to model salinization and to assess effects of future applications of road salt to streams. We heuristically increased and decreased salt applications by 100% and results showed that stream chloride concentrations increased by 13% and decreased by 7%, respectively. The model suggests that future management of salt application can reduce environmental concentrations, albeit over some time. - Highlights: → A new Integrated Catchment Model (INCA-Cl) is developed to simulate salinity. → Road salt application is important in controlling stream chloride concentration. → INCA-Cl can be used to manage and forecast the input and transport of chloride to the rivers. - A newly developed integrated catchment model for salinity can be used to manage and forecast the inputs and transport of chloride to streams.

Salting our landscape: An integrated catchment model using readily accessible data to assess emerging road salt contamination to streams

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin Li, E-mail: li.jin@ouce.ox.ac.uk [Earth Sciences Department, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13210 (United States); School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Whitehead, Paul [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Siegel, Donald I. [Earth Sciences Department, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13210 (United States); Findlay, Stuart [Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, 2801 Sharon Turnpike, Millbrook, NY 12545 (United States)

2011-05-15

A new integrated catchment model for salinity has been developed to assess the transport of road salt from upland areas in watersheds to streams using readily accessible landscape, hydrologic, and meteorological data together with reported salt applications. We used Fishkill Creek (NY) as a representative watershed to test the model. Results showed good agreement between modeled and measured stream water chloride concentrations. These results suggest that a dominant mode of catchment simulation that does not entail complex deterministic modeling is an appropriate method to model salinization and to assess effects of future applications of road salt to streams. We heuristically increased and decreased salt applications by 100% and results showed that stream chloride concentrations increased by 13% and decreased by 7%, respectively. The model suggests that future management of salt application can reduce environmental concentrations, albeit over some time. - Highlights: > A new Integrated Catchment Model (INCA-Cl) is developed to simulate salinity. > Road salt application is important in controlling stream chloride concentration. > INCA-Cl can be used to manage and forecast the input and transport of chloride to the rivers. - A newly developed integrated catchment model for salinity can be used to manage and forecast the inputs and transport of chloride to streams.

Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

2016-12-01

Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

An IT perspective on integrated environmental modelling: The SIAT case

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verweij, P.J.F.M.; Knapen, M.J.R.; Winter, de W.P.; Wien, J.J.F.; Roller, te J.A.; Sieber, S.; Jansen, J.M.L.

2010-01-01

Policy makers have a growing interest in integrated assessments of policies. The Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) community is reacting to this interest by extending the application of model development from pure scientific analysis towards application in decision making or policy context by

Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Sluijs, J.P.

1995-01-01

Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP (Numerical, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree), that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders. 3 tabs., 20 refs

Integrated assessment of the global warming problem: A decision-analytical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Lenthe, J.; Hendrickx, L.; Vlek, C.A.J.

1994-12-01

The multi-disciplinary character of the global warming problem asks for an integrated assessment approach for ordering and combining the various physical, ecological, economical, and sociological results. The Netherlands initiated their own National Research Program (NRP) on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP). The first phase (NRP-1) identified the integration theme as one of five central research themes. The second phase (NRP-2) shows a growing concern for integrated assessment issues. The current two-year research project 'Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy options, which started in September 1993, comes under the integrated assessment part of the Dutch NRP. The first part of the interim report describes the search for an integrated assessment methodology. It starts with emphasizing the need for integrated assessment at a relatively high level of aggregation and from a policy point of view. The conclusion will be that a decision-analytical approach might fit the purpose of a policy-oriented integrated modeling of the global warming problem. The discussion proceeds with an account on decision analysis and its explicit incorporation and analysis of uncertainty. Then influence diagrams, a relatively recent development in decision analysis, are introduced as a useful decision-analytical approach for integrated assessment. Finally, a software environment for creating and analyzing complex influence diagram models is discussed. The second part of the interim report provides a first, provisional integrated modeling of the global warming problem, emphasizing on the illustration of the decision-analytical approach. Major problem elements are identified and an initial problem structure is developed. The problem structure is described in terms of hierarchical influence diagrams. At some places the qualitative structure is filled with quantitative data

Integrated fate modeling for exposure assessment of produced water on the Sable Island Bank (Scotian shelf, Canada).

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Jody A; Wells, Peter G

2004-10-01

Produced water is the largest waste discharge from the production phase of oil and gas wells. Produced water is a mixture of reservoir formation water and production chemicals from the separation process. This creates a chemical mixture that has several components of toxic concern, ranging from heavy metals to soluble hydrocarbons. Analysis of potential environmental effects from produced water in the Sable Island Bank region (NS, Canada) was conducted using an integrated modeling approach according to the ecological risk assessment framework. A hydrodynamic dispersion model was used to describe the wastewater plume. A second fugacity-based model was used to describe the likely plume partitioning in the local environmental media of water, suspended sediment, biota, and sediment. Results from the integrated modeling showed that the soluble benzene and naphthalene components reach chronic no-effect concentration levels at a distance of 1.0 m from the discharge point. The partition modeling indicated that low persistence was expected because of advection forces caused by tidal currents for the Sable Island Bank system. The exposure assessment for the two soluble hydrocarbon components suggests that the risks of adverse environmental effects from produced water on Sable Island Bank are low.

Integrated Model of Bioenergy and Agriculture System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sigurjonsson, Hafthor Ægir; Elmegaard, Brian; Clausen, Lasse Røngaard

2015-01-01

Due to increased burden on the environment caused by human activities, focus on industrial ecology designs are gaining more attention. In that perspective an environ- mentally effective integration of bionergy and agriculture systems has significant potential. This work introduces a modeling...... of the overall model. C- TOOL and Yasso07 are used in the carbon balance of agri- culture, Dynamic Network Analysis is used for the energy simulation and Brightway2 is used to build a Life Cycle Inventory compatible database and processes it for vari- ous impacts assessment methods. The model is success- fully...... approach that builds on Life Cycle Inventory and carries out Life Cycle Impact Assessment for a con- sequential Life Cycle Assessment on integrated bioenergy and agriculture systems. The model framework is built in Python which connects various freely available soft- ware that handle different aspects...

CCIEA data and model output - California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (CCIEA) is a joint project between staff at the NWFSC, SWFSC, NMML, ONMS, and WCRO to provide managers and...

Assessment of a primary and tertiary care integrated management model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peiro Meritxell

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The diagnosis and treatment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD in Spain continues to present challenges, and problems are exacerbated when there is a lack of coordinated follow-up between levels of care. This paper sets out the protocol for assessing the impact of an integrated management model for the care of patients with COPD. The new model will be evaluated in terms of 1 improvement in the rational utilization of health-care services and 2 benefits reflected in improved health status and quality of life for patients. Methods/Design A quasi-experimental study of the effectiveness of a COPD management model called COPD PROCESS. The patients in the study cohorts will be residents of neighborhoods served by two referral hospitals in Barcelona, Spain. One area comprises the intervention group (n = 32,248 patients and the other the control group (n = 32,114 patients. The study will include pre- and post-intervention assessment 18 months after the program goes into effect. Analyses will be on two datasets: clinical and administrative data available for all patients, and clinical assessment information for a cohort of 440 patients sampled randomly from the intervention and control areas. The main endpoints will be the hospitalization rates in the two health-care areas and quality-of-life measures in the two cohorts. Discussion The COPD PROCESS model foresees the integrated multidisciplinary management of interventions at different levels of the health-care system through coordinated routine clinical practice. It will put into practice diagnostic and treatment procedures that are based on current evidence, multidisciplinary consensus, and efficient use of available resources. Care pathways in this model are defined in terms of patient characteristics, level of disease severity and the presence or absence of exacerbation. The protocol covers the full range of care from primary prevention to treatment of

Data requirements for integrated near field models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilems, R.E.; Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Faust, C.R.; Brecher, A.

1981-01-01

The coupled nature of the various processes in the near field require that integrated models be employed to assess long term performance of the waste package and repository. The nature of the integrated near field models being compiled under the SCEPTER program are discussed. The interfaces between these near field models and far field models are described. Finally, near field data requirements are outlined in sufficient detail to indicate overall programmatic guidance for data gathering activities

Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brian C. O' Neill

2006-08-09

This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

Romanian network for structural integrity assessment of nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roth, Maria; Constantinescu, Dan Mihai; Brad, Sebastian; Ducu, Catalin

2008-01-01

Full text: Based of the Romanian option to develop and operate nuclear facilities, using as model the networks created at European level and taking into account the international importance of the structural integrity assessments for lifetime extension of the nuclear components, a national Project started since 2005 in the framework of the National Program 'Research of Excellence', Modulus I 2006-2008, managed by the Ministry of Education and Research. Entitled 'Integrated Network for Structural Integrity Monitoring of Critical Components in Nuclear Facilities', with the acronym RIMIS, the Project had two main objectives: - to elaborate a procedure applicable to the structural integrity assessment of the critical components used in Romanian nuclear facilities; - to integrate the national networking in a similar one, at European level, to enhance the scientific significance of Romanian R and D organizations as well as to increase the contribution to solving one of the major issue of the nuclear field. The paper aimed to present the activities performed in the Romanian institutes, involved in the Project, the final results obtained as part of the R and D activities, including experimental, theoretical and modeling ones regarding structural integrity assessment of nuclear components employed in CANDU type reactors. Also the activity carried out in the framework of the NULIFE network, created at European level of the FP6 Program and sustained by the RIMIS network will be described. (authors)

Integrative structure modeling with the Integrative Modeling Platform.

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, Benjamin; Viswanath, Shruthi; Bonomi, Massimiliano; Pellarin, Riccardo; Greenberg, Charles H; Saltzberg, Daniel; Sali, Andrej

2018-01-01

Building models of a biological system that are consistent with the myriad data available is one of the key challenges in biology. Modeling the structure and dynamics of macromolecular assemblies, for example, can give insights into how biological systems work, evolved, might be controlled, and even designed. Integrative structure modeling casts the building of structural models as a computational optimization problem, for which information about the assembly is encoded into a scoring function that evaluates candidate models. Here, we describe our open source software suite for integrative structure modeling, Integrative Modeling Platform (https://integrativemodeling.org), and demonstrate its use. © 2017 The Protein Society.

Combining multimedia models with integrated urban water system models for micropollutants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Keyser, W.; Gevaert, V.; Verdonck, F.

2009-01-01

Integrated urban water system (IUWS) modelling aims at assessing the quality of the surface water receiving the urban emissions through sewage treatment plants, combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and stormwater drainage systems. However, some micropollutants have the tendency to occur in more than one...... environmental medium. In this work, a multimedia fate and transport model (MFTM) is “wrapped around” a dynamic IUWS model for organic micropollutants to enable integrated environmental assessment. The combined model was tested on a hypothetical catchment using two scenarios: a reference scenario...... and a stormwater infiltration pond scenario, as an example of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS). A case for Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) was simulated and resulted in a reduced surface water concentration for the latter scenario. However, the model also showed that this was at the expense...

Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Cement Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sathaye, J.; Xu, T.; Galitsky, C.

2010-08-15

Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. How to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions becomes extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing of GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models.

Integrated monitoring and assessment of air pollution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hertel, O.

2009-09-15

Improved quality, better understanding of processes and optimisation of allocated resources, these are the main advantages of applying Integrated Monitoring and Assessment (IMA) in air quality management. The IMA is defined as the combined use of measurements and model calculations. The use of IMA is demonstrated with examples with different aims: to obtain data for air pollution in urban streets, to assess human exposure to traffic air pollution, and to assess atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds to marine and terrestrial ecosystems. (author)

Combining multimedia models with integrated urban water system models for micropollutants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Keyser, W.; Gevaert, V.; Verdonck, F.

2010-01-01

Integrated urban water system (IUWS) modeling aims at assessing the quality of the surface water receiving the urban emissions through sewage treatment plants, combined sewer overflows (CSOS) and stormwater drainage systems However, some micropollutants tend to appear in more than one environmental...... medium (air, water, sediment, soil, groundwater, etc) In this work, a multimedia fate and transport model (MFTM) is "wrapped around" a dynamic IUWS model for organic micropollutants to enable integrated environmental assessment The combined model was tested on a hypothetical catchment using two scenarios...... on the one hand a reference scenario with a combined sewerage system and on the other hand a stormwater infiltration pond scenario, as an example of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) A case for Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) was simulated and resulted in reduced surface water concentrations...

Bio-economic farm modelling for integrated assessment of agricultural and environmental policies: towards re-usability and improved empirical validity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kanellopoulos, A.

2010-01-01

Keywords: integrated assessment, environmental policy, agricultural policy, market liberalization, bio-economic model, farming systems, mathematical programming, maximum entropy estimation, data envelopment analysis, agricultural activity, land use, future studies.

The main objective of

An integrative approach to the assessment of narcissism.

Science.gov (United States)

Roche, Michael J; Pincus, Aaron L; Lukowitsky, Mark R; Ménard, Kim S; Conroy, David E

2013-01-01

Narcissism research is poorly calibrated across fields of study in part due to confusion over how to integrate normal and pathological descriptions of narcissism. We argue that pathological and normal narcissism can be integrated in a single model that organizes around self-regulation mechanisms. We present theoretical and empirical support for this interpretation, and demonstrate that modeling pathological and normal narcissism as 2 dimensions underlying the narcissistic character can help to resolve some of the inconsistencies in the field regarding how to best assess adaptive and maladaptive expressions of narcissism.

Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

Science.gov (United States)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

2012-12-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

Comparison of integrated assessment models: Carbon price impacts on U.S. energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkerson, Jordan T.; Leibowicz, Benjamin D.; Turner, Delavane D.; Weyant, John P.

2015-01-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are increasingly used to evaluate carbon policy impacts on energy structure, but different models can yield considerably different results. This paper seeks to frame model results for policymakers and other consumers of model outputs. In this analysis we compare three models: GCAM, MERGE, and EPPA. We apply diagnostic carbon price scenarios, such as ramps and shocks, to identify key differences in model behavior that drive inter-model variability in projected policy impacts on the U.S. energy system. We report model results using several economic parameterizations and find that variation in carbon emissions across models results primarily from differences in carbon intensity of energy supply. These differences arise because models include different low-carbon energy technology options and vary widely in how flexible the electricity supply sector is at adapting to a change in policy. The timing of emissions abatement is also strongly influenced by whether the model is a simulation or an inter-temporal optimization scheme and the amount of foresight exhibited in the model. Our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of novel IAM diagnostic indicators and clarifies model features that are highly relevant for consumers of model results. - Highlights: • We compare several IAMs and highlight differences between models types. • Structural difference between models leads to significantly different energy mix. • Primary driver of inter-model variability is changes in carbon intensity. • Intensity driven by technology options, constraints on adoption, and substitutability. • Policymakers need to understand model framework, inputs, and assumptions

Integrating environmental and socioeconomic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Branch, K.M.; Cluett, C.; Page, T.L.

1987-01-01

Since the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in 1969, considerable scientific and regulatory attention has been given to the preparation of environmental impact assessments. Part of this attention has been directed to definition of the proper scope of an environmental assessment and to debate about how the ''human environment'' should be addressed. This debate continues, and is reflected in the ongoing evolution of the definition of and relationship between the ''environmental'' and ''socioeconomic'' components of an integrated environmental impact assessment. This paper discusses the need for close integration between the environmental and socioeconomic assessment efforts and examines some of the benefits and difficulties of achieving this integration

Integrated Environmental Assessment Part III: ExposureAssessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McKone, Thomas E.; Small, Mitchell J.

2006-06-01

Human exposure assessment is a key step in estimating the environmental and public health burdens that result chemical emissions in the life cycle of an industrial product or service. This column presents the third in a series of overviews of the state of the art in integrated environmental assessment - earlier columns described emissions estimation (Frey and Small, 2003) and fate and transport modeling (Ramaswami, et al., 2004). When combined, these first two assessment elements provide estimates of ambient concentrations in the environment. Here we discuss how both models and measurements are used to translate ambient concentrations into metrics of human and ecological exposure, the necessary precursors to impact assessment. Exposure assessment is the process of measuring and/or modeling the magnitude, frequency and duration of contact between a potentially harmful agent and a target population, including the size and characteristics of that population (IPCS, 2001; Zartarian, et al., 2005). Ideally the exposure assessment process should characterize the sources, routes, pathways, and uncertainties in the assessment. Route of exposure refers to the way that an agent enters the receptor during an exposure event. Humans contact pollutants through three routes--inhalation, ingestion, and dermal uptake. Inhalation occurs in both outdoor environments and indoor environments where most people spend the majority of their time. Ingestion includes both water and food, as well as soil and dust uptake due to hand-to-mouth activity. Dermal uptake occurs through contacts with consumer products; indoor and outdoor surfaces; the water supply during washing or bathing; ambient surface waters during swimming or boating; soil during activities such as work, gardening, and play; and, to a lesser extent, from the air that surrounds us. An exposure pathway is the course that a pollutant takes from an ambient environmental medium (air, soil, water, biota, etc), to an exposure medium

A neonatal mouse spinal cord injury model for assessing post-injury adaptive plasticity and human stem cell integration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Luc Boulland

Full Text Available Despite limited regeneration capacity, partial injuries to the adult mammalian spinal cord can elicit variable degrees of functional recovery, mediated at least in part by reorganization of neuronal circuitry. Underlying mechanisms are believed to include synaptic plasticity and collateral sprouting of spared axons. Because plasticity is higher in young animals, we developed a spinal cord compression (SCC injury model in the neonatal mouse to gain insight into the potential for reorganization during early life. The model provides a platform for high-throughput assessment of functional synaptic connectivity that is also suitable for testing the functional integration of human stem and progenitor cell-derived neurons being considered for clinical cell replacement strategies. SCC was generated at T9-T11 and functional recovery was assessed using an integrated approach including video kinematics, histology, tract tracing, electrophysiology, and high-throughput optical recording of descending inputs to identified spinal neurons. Dramatic degeneration of axons and synaptic contacts was evident within 24 hours of SCC, and loss of neurons in the injured segment was evident for at least a month thereafter. Initial hindlimb paralysis was paralleled by a loss of descending inputs to lumbar motoneurons. Within 4 days of SCC and progressively thereafter, hindlimb motility began to be restored and descending inputs reappeared, but with examples of atypical synaptic connections indicating a reorganization of circuitry. One to two weeks after SCC, hindlimb motility approached sham control levels, and weight-bearing locomotion was virtually indistinguishable in SCC and sham control mice. Genetically labeled human fetal neural progenitor cells injected into the injured spinal cord survived for at least a month, integrated into the host tissue and began to differentiate morphologically. This integrative neonatal mouse model provides opportunities to explore early

Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

2017-12-01

We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

Modeling, simulation, parametric study and economic assessment of reciprocating internal combustion engine integrated with multi-effect desalination unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salimi, Mohsen; Amidpour, Majid

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Integration of small MED unit with gas engine power cycle is studied in this paper. • Modeling, simulation, parametric study and sensitivity analysis were performed. • A thermodynamic model for heat recovery and power generation of the gas engine has been presented. • Annualized Cost of System (ACS) has been employed for economic assessment. • Economic feasibilty dependence of integrated system on natural gas and water prices has been investigated. - Abstract: Due to thermal nature of multi-effect desalination (MED), its integration with a suitable power cycle is highly desirable for waste heat recovery. One of the proper power cycle for proposed integration is internal combustion engine (ICE). The exhaust gas heat of ICE is used to produce motive steam for the required heat for the first effect of MED system. Also, the water jacket heat is utilized in a heat exchanger to pre-heat the seawater. This paper studies a thermodynamic model for a tri-generation system composed of ICE integrated with MED. The ICE thermodynamic model has been used in place of different empirical efficiency relations to estimate performance – load curves reasonably. The entire system performance has been coded in MATLAB, and the results of proposed thermodynamic model for the engine have been verified by manufacturer catalogue. By increasing the engine load from 40% to 100%, the water production of MED unit will increase from 4.38 cubic meters per day to 26.78 cubic meters per day and the tri-generation efficiency from 31% to 56%. Economic analyses of the MED unit integrated with ICE was performed based on Annualized Cost of System method. This integration makes the system more economical. It has been determined that in higher market prices for fresh water (more than 7 US$ per cubic meter), the increase in effects number is more significant to the period of return decrement.

General support for integrated assessment research. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2001-03-01

The climate change problem spans an extraordinarily large number of disciplines from earth sciences to social and political sciences. The interaction of processes described by these different fields is why climate change is such a complex issue. Keeping track of these interactions and bringing coherence to the assumptions underlying each disciplinary insight on the climate problem is a massive undertaking. Integrated assessment is an interdisciplinary approach designed to provide systematic evaluations of technically complex problems such as the analysis of environmental change challenges facing humanity. Ph.D. theses stemming from this application are summarized. Then some aspects of Integrated Climate Assessment Models are described.

Modelling NO2 concentrations at the street level in the GAINS integrated assessment model: projections under current legislation

Science.gov (United States)

Kiesewetter, G.; Borken-Kleefeld, J.; Schöpp, W.; Heyes, C.; Thunis, P.; Bessagnet, B.; Terrenoire, E.; Gsella, A.; Amann, M.

2014-01-01

NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement in recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality database that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale: 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport as well as regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard

Integrated environmental and economic assessment of waste management systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinez Sanchez, Veronica

in the “Optimization approach” the scenarios are the results of an optimization process. • The cost approach describes cost principles and level of LCA integration. Conventional and Environmental LCCs are financial assessments, i.e. include marketed goods/services, but while Environmental LCCs include environmental...... assessment of SWM systems alongside environmental impacts assessment to take budget constrains into account. In light of the need for combined environmental and economic assessment of SWM, this PhD thesis developed a consistent and comprehensive method for integrated environmental and economic assessment...... of SWM technologies and systems. The method resulted from developing further the generic Life Cycle Costing (LCC) framework suggested by Hunkeler et al. (2008) and Swarr et al. (2011) to apply it on the field of SWM. The method developed includes: two modelling approaches (Accounting and Optimization...

ANL/CANTIA code for steam generator tube integrity assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Revankar, S.T.; Wolf, B.; Majumdar, S.; Riznic, J.R.

2009-01-01

Steam generator (SG) tubes have an important safety role in CANDU type reactors and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) because they constitute one of the primary barriers between the radioactive and non-radioactive sides of the nuclear plant. The SG tubes are susceptible to corrosion and damage. A failure of a single steam generator tube, or even a few tubes, would not be a serious safety-related event in a CANDU reactor. The leakage from a ruptured tube is within makeup capacity of the primary heat transport system, so that as long as the operator takes the correct actions, the off-site consequences will be negligible. A sufficient safety margin against tube rupture used to be the basis for a variety of maintenance strategies developed to maintain a suitable level of plant safety and reliability. Several through-wall flaws may remain in operation and potentially contribute to the total primary-to-secondary leak rate. Assessment of the conditional probabilities of tube failures, leak rates, and ultimately risk of exceeding licensing dose limits has been used for steam generator tube fitness-for-service assessment. The advantage of this type of analysis is that it avoids the excessive conservatism typically present in deterministic methodologies. However, it requires considerable effort and expense to develop all of the failure, leakage, probability of detection, and flaw growth distributions and models necessary to obtain meaningful results from a probabilistic model. The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) recently developed the CANTIA methodology for probabilistic assessment of inspection strategies for steam generator tubes as a direct effect on the probability of tube failure and primary-to-secondary leak rate Recently Argonne National Laboratory has developed tube integrity and leak rate models under Integrated Steam Generator Tube Integrity Program (ISGTIP-2). These models have been incorporated in the ANL/CANTIA code. This paper presents the ANL

Assessing sequential data assimilation techniques for integrating GRACE data into a hydrological model

KAUST Repository

Khaki, M.

2017-07-06

The time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS) products from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been increasingly used in recent years to improve the simulation of hydrological models by applying data assimilation techniques. In this study, for the first time, we assess the performance of the most popular data assimilation sequential techniques for integrating GRACE TWS into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) model. We implement and test stochastic and deterministic ensemble-based Kalman filters (EnKF), as well as Particle filters (PF) using two different resampling approaches of Multinomial Resampling and Systematic Resampling. These choices provide various opportunities for weighting observations and model simulations during the assimilation and also accounting for error distributions. Particularly, the deterministic EnKF is tested to avoid perturbing observations before assimilation (that is the case in an ordinary EnKF). Gaussian-based random updates in the EnKF approaches likely do not fully represent the statistical properties of the model simulations and TWS observations. Therefore, the fully non-Gaussian PF is also applied to estimate more realistic updates. Monthly GRACE TWS are assimilated into W3RA covering the entire Australia. To evaluate the filters performances and analyze their impact on model simulations, their estimates are validated by independent in-situ measurements. Our results indicate that all implemented filters improve the estimation of water storage simulations of W3RA. The best results are obtained using two versions of deterministic EnKF, i.e. the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) scheme and the Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF), respectively improving the model groundwater estimations errors by 34% and 31% compared to a model run without assimilation. Applying the PF along with Systematic Resampling successfully decreases the model estimation error by 23%.

Assessment of air quality management policies in China with integrated model framework: Case study for Hebei province

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Q.; Zhao, Q.; Zheng, B.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.; Yang, W.; He, K.

2015-12-01

The Chinese government has pledged to clean urban air within five years from 2013 to 2017, to promote annual average PM2.5 concentration decline by 25%, 20% and 15% in the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, respectively. The national targets are disaggregated into provinces, where region-specific action plan is designed and implemented by local government. It is particularly important to timely assess the effectiveness of local emission control measures and guarantee local efforts are in line with the national goal. We develop an integrated model framework for air quality management and policy evaluation, by integrating a dynamic high-resolution emission model, an emission scenarios analysis tool, and a 3-D air quality model. We then put the model system into pilot use in Hebei province for policy making to achieve the air quality target of 2017. We first integrate over 3000 point source facilities into this system to develop a high-resolution emission inventory. Upon the base emission dataset, the efforts to mitigate emissions with current and enacted measures are tracked and quantified to dynamic account of emission changes monthly. Strict policies are designed within the model framework through analyzing the potential to cut emissions for each point source. The finalized policy package can reduce emissions of major air pollutants by 20%-40%, respectively, leading to large decrease of ambient PM2.5 concentration.

Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

2017-11-01

This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Integrated System Dynamics Modelling for water scarcity assessment: case study of the Kairouan region.

Science.gov (United States)

Sušnik, Janez; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia S; Savić, Dragan A; Kapelan, Zoran

2012-12-01

A System Dynamics Model (SDM) assessing water scarcity and potential impacts of socio-economic policies in a complex hydrological system is developed. The model, simulating water resources deriving from numerous catchment sources and demand from four sectors (domestic, industrial, agricultural, external pumping), contains multiple feedback loops and sub-models. The SDM is applied to the Merguellil catchment, Tunisia; the first time such an integrated model has been developed for the water scarce Kairouan region. The application represents an early step in filling a critical research gap. The focus of this paper is to a) assess the applicability of SDM for assessment of the evolution of a water-scarce catchment and b) to analyse the current and future behaviour of the catchment to evaluate water scarcity, focusing on understanding trends to inform policy. Baseline results indicate aquifer over-exploitation, agreeing with observed trends. If current policy and social behaviour continue, serious aquifer depletion is possible in the not too distant future, with implications for the economy and environment. This is unlikely to occur because policies preventing depletion will be implemented. Sensitivity tests were carried out to show which parameters most impacted aquifer behaviour. Results show non-linear model behaviour. Some tests showed negligible change in behaviour. Others showed unrealistic exponential changes in demand, revenue and aquifer water volume. Policy-realistic parameters giving the greatest positive impact on model behaviour were those controlling per-capita domestic water demand and the pumped volume to coastal cities. All potentially beneficial policy options should be considered, giving the best opportunity for preservation of Kairouan aquifer water quantity/quality, ecologically important habitats and the agricultural socio-economic driver of regional development. SDM is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of possible policy measures

Integrated Medical Model Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; Saile, L.;

Model integration and a theory of models

OpenAIRE

Dolk, Daniel R.; Kottemann, Jeffrey E.

1993-01-01

Model integration extends the scope of model management to include the dimension of manipulation as well. This invariably leads to comparisons with database theory. Model integration is viewed from four perspectives: Organizational, definitional, procedural, and implementational. Strategic modeling is discussed as the organizational motivation for model integration. Schema and process integration are examined as the logical and manipulation counterparts of model integr...

MATHEMATICAL MODEL DESIGNATED FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD PRODUCED BY A BUILDING PROJECT

OpenAIRE

Lapidus Azariy Abramovich; Berezhnyy Aleksandr Yurevich

2012-01-01

In the paper, the author proposes a mathematical model designated for the assessment of the ecological impact produced on the environment within the territory of the construction site. Integrated index EI (Environmental Index) is introduced as a vehicle designated for the evaluation of the ecological load. EI represents the intensity of the ecological load, or a generalized and optimized parameter reflecting the intensity of the anthropogenic impact of the construction site onto the natural e...

Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the U.S. Pulp and Paper Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Tengfang [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sathaye, Jayant [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kramer, Klaas Jan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2012-07-01

Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. How to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions becomes extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models. In this report, we first conduct a brief review of different representations of end-use technologies (mitigation measures) in various energy-climate models, followed by the problem statement, and a description of the basic concepts of quantifying the cost of conserved energy including integrating no-regrets options.

Integration of inaccurate data into model building and uncertainty assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleou, Thierry

1998-12-31

Model building can be seen as integrating numerous measurements and mapping through data points considered as exact. As the exact data set is usually sparse, using additional non-exact data improves the modelling and reduces the uncertainties. Several examples of non-exact data are discussed and a methodology to honor them in a single pass, along with the exact data is presented. This automatic procedure is valid for both ``base case`` model building and stochastic simulations for uncertainty analysis. 5 refs., 3 figs.

Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Therond, O.; Belhouchette, H.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Louhichi, K.; Ewert, F.; Bergez, J.E.; Wery, J.; Heckelei, T.; Olsson, J.A.; Leenhardt, D.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2009-01-01

Scenario-based approaches in environmental and policy assessment studies are increasingly applied within integrated assessment and modelling frameworks. The SEAMLESS project develops such an integrated framework (SEAMLESS-IF) aiming to assess, ex-ante, impacts of alternative agro-environmental

Integration of nursing assessment concepts into the medical entities dictionary using the LOINC semantic structure as a terminology model.

OpenAIRE

Cieslowski, B. J.; Wajngurt, D.; Cimino, J. J.; Bakken, S.

2001-01-01

Recent investigations have tested the applicability of various terminology models for the representing nursing concepts including those related to nursing diagnoses, nursing interventions, and standardized nursing assessments as a prerequisite for building a reference terminology that supports the nursing domain. We used the semantic structure of Clinical LOINC (Logical Observations, Identifiers, Names, and Codes) as a reference terminology model to support the integration of standardized ass...

A Spatial Allocation Procedure to Downscale Regional Crop Production Estimates from an Integrated Assessment Model

Science.gov (United States)

Moulds, S.; Djordjevic, S.; Savic, D.

2017-12-01

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model, provides insight into the interactions and feedbacks between physical and human systems. The land system component of GCAM, which simulates land use activities and the production of major crops, produces output at the subregional level which must be spatially downscaled in order to use with gridded impact assessment models. However, existing downscaling routines typically consider cropland as a homogeneous class and do not provide information about land use intensity or specific management practices such as irrigation and multiple cropping. This paper presents a spatial allocation procedure to downscale crop production data from GCAM to a spatial grid, producing a time series of maps which show the spatial distribution of specific crops (e.g. rice, wheat, maize) at four input levels (subsistence, low input rainfed, high input rainfed and high input irrigated). The model algorithm is constrained by available cropland at each time point and therefore implicitly balances extensification and intensification processes in order to meet global food demand. It utilises a stochastic approach such that an increase in production of a particular crop is more likely to occur in grid cells with a high biophysical suitability and neighbourhood influence, while a fall in production will occur more often in cells with lower suitability. User-supplied rules define the order in which specific crops are downscaled as well as allowable transitions. A regional case study demonstrates the ability of the model to reproduce historical trends in India by comparing the model output with district-level agricultural inventory data. Lastly, the model is used to predict the spatial distribution of crops globally under various GCAM scenarios.

Quantitative assessment of integrated phrenic nerve activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Nichols, Nicole L; Mitchell, Gordon S

2016-06-01

Integrated electrical activity in the phrenic nerve is commonly used to assess within-animal changes in phrenic motor output. Because of concerns regarding the consistency of nerve recordings, activity is most often expressed as a percent change from baseline values. However, absolute values of nerve activity are necessary to assess the impact of neural injury or disease on phrenic motor output. To date, no systematic evaluations of the repeatability/reliability have been made among animals when phrenic recordings are performed by an experienced investigator using standardized methods. We performed a meta-analysis of studies reporting integrated phrenic nerve activity in many rat groups by the same experienced investigator; comparisons were made during baseline and maximal chemoreceptor stimulation in 14 wild-type Harlan and 14 Taconic Sprague Dawley groups, and in 3 pre-symptomatic and 11 end-stage SOD1(G93A) Taconic rat groups (an ALS model). Meta-analysis results indicate: (1) consistent measurements of integrated phrenic activity in each sub-strain of wild-type rats; (2) with bilateral nerve recordings, left-to-right integrated phrenic activity ratios are ∼1.0; and (3) consistently reduced activity in end-stage SOD1(G93A) rats. Thus, with appropriate precautions, integrated phrenic nerve activity enables robust, quantitative comparisons among nerves or experimental groups, including differences caused by neuromuscular disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impact of model spin-up on surface water-groundwater interactions using an integrated hydrologic model

KAUST Repository

Ajami, Hoori

2014-03-01

Integrated land surface-groundwater models are valuable tools in simulating the terrestrial hydrologic cycle as a continuous system and exploring the extent of land surface-subsurface interactions from catchment to regional scales. However, the fidelity of model simulations is impacted not only by the vegetation and subsurface parameterizations, but also by the antecedent condition of model state variables, such as the initial soil moisture, depth to groundwater, and ground temperature. In land surface modeling, a given model is often run repeatedly over a single year of forcing data until it reaches an equilibrium state: the point at which there is minimal artificial drift in the model state or prognostic variables (most often the soil moisture). For more complex coupled and integrated systems, where there is an increased computational cost of simulation and the number of variables sensitive to initialization is greater than in traditional uncoupled land surface modeling schemes, the challenge is to minimize the impact of initialization while using the smallest spin-up time possible. In this study, multicriteria analysis was performed to assess the spin-up behavior of the ParFlow.CLM integrated groundwater-surface water-land surface model over a 208 km2 subcatchment of the Ringkobing Fjord catchment in Denmark. Various measures of spin-up performance were computed for model state variables such as the soil moisture and groundwater storage, as well as for diagnostic variables such as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. The impacts of initial conditions on surface water-groundwater interactions were then explored. Our analysis illustrates that the determination of an equilibrium state depends strongly on the variable and performance measure used. Choosing an improper initialization of the model can generate simulations that lead to a misinterpretation of land surface-subsurface feedback processes and result in large biases in simulated discharge. Estimated spin

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Integrated Modelling in CRUCIAL Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Mahura, Alexander; Nuterman, Roman; Mukhamedzhanova, Elena; Nerobelov, Georgiy; Sedeeva, Margarita; Suhodskiy, Alexander; Mostamandy, Suleiman; Smyshlyaev, Sergey

2017-04-01

The NordForsk CRUCIAL project (2016-2017) "Critical steps in understanding land surface - atmosphere interactions: from improved knowledge to socioeconomic solutions" as a part of the Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX; https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex) programme activities, is looking for a deeper collaboration between Nordic-Russian science communities. In particular, following collaboration between Danish and Russian partners, several topics were selected for joint research and are focused on evaluation of: (1) urbanization processes impact on changes in urban weather and climate on urban-subregional-regional scales and at contribution to assessment studies for population and environment; (2) effects of various feedback mechanisms on aerosol and cloud formation and radiative forcing on urban-regional scales for better predicting extreme weather events and at contribution to early warning systems, (3) environmental contamination from continues emissions and industrial accidents for better assessment and decision making for sustainable social and economic development, and (4) climatology of atmospheric boundary layer in northern latitudes to improve understanding of processes, revising parameterizations, and better weather forecasting. These research topics are realized employing the online integrated Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) model within students' research projects: (1) "Online integrated high-resolution modelling of Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area influence on weather and air pollution forecasting"; (2) "Modeling of aerosol impact on regional-urban scales: case study of Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area"; (3) "Regional modeling and GIS evaluation of environmental pollution from Kola Peninsula sources"; and (4) "Climatology of the High-Latitude Planetary Boundary Layer". The students' projects achieved results and planned young scientists research training on online integrated modelling (Jun 2017) will be presented and

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program: 1990 Integrated Assessment report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-11-01

The document, the 'Integrated Assessment,' is a summary of the causes and effects of acidic deposition and a comparison of the costs and effectiveness of alternative emission control scenarios. In developing the 'Integrated Assessment,' it was NAPAP's goal to produce a structured compilation of policy-relevant technical information. The Integrated Assessment is based on findings and data from a series of twenty-seven State-of-Science/Technology Reports (SOS/T) on acidic deposition published by NAPAP in 1990. The scope of the documents includes: (1) emissions, atmospheric processes and deposition; (2) effects on surface waters, forests, agricultural crops, exposed materials, human health, and visibility; and (3) control technologies, future emissions, and effects valuation

INTEGRATION OF FACILITY MODELING CAPABILITIES FOR NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION ANALYSIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gorensek, M.; Hamm, L.; Garcia, H.; Burr, T.; Coles, G.; Edmunds, T.; Garrett, A.; Krebs, J.; Kress, R.; Lamberti, V.; Schoenwald, D.; Tzanos, C.; Ward, R.

2011-07-18

Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

Integration of facility modeling capabilities for nuclear nonproliferation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia, Humberto; Burr, Tom; Coles, Garill A.; Edmunds, Thomas A.; Garrett, Alfred; Gorensek, Maximilian; Hamm, Luther; Krebs, John; Kress, Reid L.; Lamberti, Vincent; Schoenwald, David; Tzanos, Constantine P.; Ward, Richard C.

2012-01-01

Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

Integration Of Facility Modeling Capabilities For Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorensek, M.; Hamm, L.; Garcia, H.; Burr, T.; Coles, G.; Edmunds, T.; Garrett, A.; Krebs, J.; Kress, R.; Lamberti, V.; Schoenwald, D.; Tzanos, C.; Ward, R.

2011-01-01

Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

Integrating Planning, Assessment, and Improvement in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sherlock, Barbara J.

2009-01-01

Based on Penn State's popular "Innovation Insights" series, this book brings together in one handy reference nearly a decade of tried and true insights into continuous quality improvements in higher education. Their five-step model for integrating planning, assessment, and improvement moves plans off the shelf and into the weekly and daily…

Peculiarities of designing Holistic Electronic Government Services Integration Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tadas Limba

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Purpos– the aim ok this paper is to develop a Holistic Electronic Government Services Integration Model which could ensure the efficient integration of electronic government services in the local self-government level.Methodolog– the following analyses have been carried out in thirkpaper: theoretical-systematic; normative and conceptual comparative analysis of the researcha A method of modeling has also been applied.Finding– the scientific work analyzes the improvement opportunities of the models of electronic government services and their application alternatives in Lithuanian municipalities. The newly developed model of electronic government services that has been designed basng on the principle of integrating online expert consultation is primarily targeted at improvement of inside processes’ changes of an organization. Practicing the application of that model in the local self-government level starting with improvement of inside processes of an organization should help adapt more accurately and efficiently to the changing needs of the society while providing electronic government services, thus establishing a higher public value.Practical implication– the practical novelty of work is reflected not only through the integration opportunities’ assessment of the principle of online expert consultation services into the theoretical models of electronic government services that have already been developed by the scientists, but also on the basis of this principle there has been created a “Holistic Electronic Government Services Integration Model” in accordance with “E-Diamond” model basis and its practical application realization with the design of “The project of implementing the principle of online expert consultation on the model of electronic government services” for the future investigations.Originalit– the systematic, comparative analysis of the models of electronic government services carried out in the scientific

Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

2015-01-01

The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

Effectiveness of Adaptive Contextual Learning Model of Integrated Science by Integrating Digital Age Literacy on Grade VIII Students

Science.gov (United States)

Asrizal, A.; Amran, A.; Ananda, A.; Festiyed, F.

2018-04-01

Educational graduates should have good competencies to compete in the 21st century. Integrated learning is a good way to develop competence of students in this century. Besides that, literacy skills are very important for students to get success in their learning and daily life. For this reason, integrated science learning and literacy skills are important in 2013 curriculum. However, integrated science learning and integration of literacy in learning can’t be implemented well. Solution of this problem is to develop adaptive contextual learning model by integrating digital age literacy. The purpose of the research is to determine the effectiveness of adaptive contextual learning model to improve competence of grade VIII students in junior high school. This research is a part of the research and development or R&D. Research design which used in limited field testing was before and after treatment. The research instruments consist of three parts namely test sheet of learning outcome for assessing knowledge competence, observation sheet for assessing attitudes, and performance sheet for assessing skills of students. Data of student’s competence were analyzed by three kinds of analysis, namely descriptive statistics, normality test and homogeneity test, and paired comparison test. From the data analysis result, it can be stated that the implementation of adaptive contextual learning model of integrated science by integrating digital age literacy is effective to improve the knowledge, attitude, and literacy skills competences of grade VIII students in junior high school at 95% confidence level.

Pipeline integrity model-a formative approach towards reliability and life assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sayed, A.M.; Jaffery, M.A.

2005-01-01

Pipe forms an integral part of transmission medium in oil and gas industry. This holds true for both upstream and downstream segments of this global energy business. With the aging of this asset base, emphasis on its operational aspects has been under immense considerations from the operators and regulators sides. Moreover, the milieu of information area and enhancement in global trade has lifted the barriers on means to forge forward towards better utilization of resources. This has resulted in optimized solutions as priority for business and technical manager's world over. There is a paradigm shift from mere development of 'smart materials' to 'low life cycle cost material'. The force inducing this change is a rationale one: the recovery of development costs is no more a problem in a global community; rather it is the pay-off time which matters most to the materials end users. This means that decision makers are not evaluating just the price offered but are keen to judge the entire life cycle cost of a product. The integrity of pipe are affected by factors such as corrosion, fatigue-crack growth, stress-corrosion cracking, and mechanical damage. Extensive research in the area of reliability and life assessment has been carried out. A number of models concerning with the reliability issues of pipes have been developed and are being used by a number of pipeline operators worldwide. Yet, it is emphasised that there are no substitute for sound engineering judgment and allowance for factors of safety. The ability of a laid down pipe network to transport the intended fluid under pre-defined conditions for the entire project envisaged life, is referred to the reliability of system. The reliability is built into the product through extensive benchmarking against industry standard codes. The process of pipes construction for oil and gas service is regulated through American Petroleum Institute's Specification for Line Pipe. Subsequently, specific programs have been

A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

2013-04-01

Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

Utilization of Integrated Assessment Modeling for determining geologic CO2 storage security

Science.gov (United States)

Pawar, R.

2017-12-01

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been extensively studied as a potential technology to mitigate atmospheric concentration of CO2. Multiple international research & development efforts, large-scale demonstration and commercial projects are helping advance the technology. One of the critical areas of active investigation is prediction of long-term CO2 storage security and risks. A quantitative methodology for predicting a storage site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. These predictions are challenging given that they require simulating CO2 and in-situ fluid movements as well as interactions through the primary storage reservoir, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, faults, etc.) and shallow resources such as groundwater aquifers. They need to take into account the inherent variability and uncertainties at geologic sites. This talk will provide an overview of an approach based on integrated assessment modeling (IAM) to predict long-term performance of a geologic storage site including, storage reservoir, potential leakage pathways and shallow groundwater aquifers. The approach utilizes reduced order models (ROMs) to capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. Applicability of the approach will be demonstrated through examples that are focused on key storage security questions such as what is the probability of leakage of CO2 from a storage reservoir? how does storage security vary for different geologic environments and operational conditions? how site parameter variability and uncertainties affect storage security, etc.

An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-02-01

This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

Assessment of post-implantation integration of engineered tissues using fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Elahi, Sakib F.; Lee, Seung Y.; Lloyd, William R.; Chen, Leng-Chun; Kuo, Shiuhyang; Zhou, Ying; Kim, Hyungjin M.; Kennedy, Robert; Marcelo, Cynthia; Feinberg, Stephen E.; Mycek, Mary-Ann

2018-02-01

Clinical translation of engineered tissue constructs requires noninvasive methods to assess construct health and viability after implantation in patients. However, current practices to monitor post-implantation construct integration are either qualitative (visual assessment) or destructive (tissue histology). As label-free fluorescence lifetime sensing can noninvasively characterize pre-implantation construct viability, we employed a handheld fluorescence lifetime spectroscopy probe to quantitatively and noninvasively assess tissue constructs that were implanted in a murine model. We designed the system to be suitable for intravital measurements: portability, localization with precise maneuverability, and rapid data acquisition. Our model tissue constructs were manufactured from primary human cells to simulate patient variability and were stressed to create a range of health states. Secreted amounts of three cytokines that relate to cellular viability were measured in vitro to assess pre-implantation construct health. In vivo optical sensing assessed tissue integration of constructs at one-week and three-weeks post-implantation. At one-week post-implantation, optical parameters correlated with in vitro pre-implantation secretion levels of all three cytokines (p clinical optical diagnostic tools based on label-free fluorescence lifetime sensing of endogenous tissue fluorophores could noninvasively monitor post-implantation integration of engineered tissues.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

2018-02-13

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Integrated assessment, water resources, and science-policy communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davies, E.G.R.; Akhtar, M.K.; McBean, G.A.; Simonovic, S.P.

2009-01-01

Traditional climate change modeling neglects the role of feedbacks between different components of society-biosphere-climate system. Yet, such interconnections are critical. This paper describes an alternative, Integrated Assessment (IA) model that focuses on feedbacks not only within individual elements of the society-biosphere-climate system, but also on their interconnections. The model replicates the relevant dynamics of nine components of the society-biosphere- climate system at the sectoral, or single-component, level: climate, carbon cycle, hydrological cycle, water demand, water quality, population, land use, energy and economy. The paper discusses the role of the model in science-policy dialogue. (author)

Towards integrated solutions for water, energy, and land using an integrated nexus modeling framework

Science.gov (United States)

Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Humanity has already reached or even exceeded the Earth's carrying capacity. Growing needs for food, energy and water will only exacerbate existing challenges over the next decades. Consequently, the acceptance of "business as usual" is eroding and we are being challenged to adopt new, more integrated, and more inclusive development pathways that avoid dangerous interference with the local environment and global planetary boundaries. This challenge is embodied in the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which endeavor to set a global agenda for moving towards more sustainable development strategies. To improve and sustain human welfare, it is critical that access to modern, reliable, and affordable water, energy, and food is expanded and maintained. The Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL) project has been launched by IIASA, together with the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). This project focuses on the water-energy-land nexus in the context of other major global challenges such as urbanization, environmental degradation, and equitable and sustainable futures. It develops a consistent framework for looking at the water-energy-land nexus and identify strategies for achieving the needed transformational outcomes through an advanced assessment framework. A multi-scalar approach are being developed that aims to combine global and regional integrated assessment tools with local stakeholder knowledge in order to identify robust solutions to energy, water, food, and ecosystem security in selected regions of the world. These are regions facing multiple energy, water and land use challenges and rapid demographic and economic changes, and are hardest hit by increasing climate variability and change. This project combines the global integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) with the global land (GLOBIOM) and water (Community Water Model) model respectively, and the integrated

Triangular model integrating clinical teaching and assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdelaziz, Adel; Koshak, Emad

2014-01-01

Structuring clinical teaching is a challenge facing medical education curriculum designers. A variety of instructional methods on different domains of learning are indicated to accommodate different learning styles. Conventional methods of clinical teaching, like training in ambulatory care settings, are prone to the factor of coincidence in having varieties of patient presentations. Accordingly, alternative methods of instruction are indicated to compensate for the deficiencies of these conventional methods. This paper presents an initiative that can be used to design a checklist as a blueprint to guide appropriate selection and implementation of teaching/learning and assessment methods in each of the educational courses and modules based on educational objectives. Three categories of instructional methods were identified, and within each a variety of methods were included. These categories are classroom-type settings, health services-based settings, and community service-based settings. Such categories have framed our triangular model of clinical teaching and assessment.

The EUCLID/V1 Integrated Code for Safety Assessment of Liquid Metal Cooled Fast Reactors. Part 1: Basic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Mosunova, N. A.

2018-05-01

The article describes the basic models included in the EUCLID/V1 integrated code intended for safety analysis of liquid metal (sodium, lead, and lead-bismuth) cooled fast reactors using fuel rods with a gas gap and pellet dioxide, mixed oxide or nitride uranium-plutonium fuel under normal operation, under anticipated operational occurrences and accident conditions by carrying out interconnected thermal-hydraulic, neutronics, and thermal-mechanical calculations. Information about the Russian and foreign analogs of the EUCLID/V1 integrated code is given. Modeled objects, equation systems in differential form solved in each module of the EUCLID/V1 integrated code (the thermal-hydraulic, neutronics, fuel rod analysis module, and the burnup and decay heat calculation modules), the main calculated quantities, and also the limitations on application of the code are presented. The article also gives data on the scope of functions performed by the integrated code's thermal-hydraulic module, using which it is possible to describe both one- and twophase processes occurring in the coolant. It is shown that, owing to the availability of the fuel rod analysis module in the integrated code, it becomes possible to estimate the performance of fuel rods in different regimes of the reactor operation. It is also shown that the models implemented in the code for calculating neutron-physical processes make it possible to take into account the neutron field distribution over the fuel assembly cross section as well as other features important for the safety assessment of fast reactors.

Modeling energy-economy interactions using integrated models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uyterlinde, M.A.

1994-06-01

Integrated models are defined as economic energy models that consist of several submodels, either coupled by an interface module, or embedded in one large model. These models can be used for energy policy analysis. Using integrated models yields the following benefits. They provide a framework in which energy-economy interactions can be better analyzed than in stand-alone models. Integrated models can represent both energy sector technological details, as well as the behaviour of the market and the role of prices. Furthermore, the combination of modeling methodologies in one model can compensate weaknesses of one approach with strengths of another. These advantages motivated this survey of the class of integrated models. The purpose of this literature survey therefore was to collect and to present information on integrated models. To carry out this task, several goals were identified. The first goal was to give an overview of what is reported on these models in general. The second one was to find and describe examples of such models. Other goals were to find out what kinds of models were used as component models, and to examine the linkage methodology. Solution methods and their convergence properties were also a subject of interest. The report has the following structure. In chapter 2, a 'conceptual framework' is given. In chapter 3 a number of integrated models is described. In a table, a complete overview is presented of all described models. Finally, in chapter 4, the report is summarized, and conclusions are drawn regarding the advantages and drawbacks of integrated models. 8 figs., 29 refs

The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

2004-01-01

Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

A study of reactor vessel integrity assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jae Hoon [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jong Kyung; Shin, Chang Ho; Seo, Bo Kyun [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1999-02-15

The fast neutron fluence at the Reactor Pressure Vessel(RPV) of KNGR designed for 60 years lifetime was calculated by full-scope Monte Carlo simulation for reactor vessel integrity assessment. KNGR core geometry was modeled on a three-dimensional representation of the one-sixteenth of the reactor in-vessel component. Each fuel assemblies were modeled explicitly, and each fuel pins were axially divided into 5 segments. The maximum flux of 4.3 x 10{sup 10} neutrons/cm{sup 2}. sec at the RPV was obtained by tallying neutrons crossing the beltline of inner surface of the RPV.

Integrated assessment of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgan, M.G.

1994-01-01

Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

Integrated water assessment and modelling: A bibliometric analysis of trends in the water resource sector

Science.gov (United States)

Zare, Fateme; Elsawah, Sondoss; Iwanaga, Takuya; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Pierce, Suzanne A.

2017-09-01

There are substantial challenges facing humanity in the water and related sectors and purposeful integration of the disciplines, connected sectors and interest groups is now perceived as essential to address them. This article describes and uses bibliometric analysis techniques to provide quantitative insights into the general landscape of Integrated Water Resource Assessment and Modelling (IWAM) research over the last 45 years. Keywords, terms in titles, abstracts and the full texts are used to distinguish the 13,239 IWAM articles in journals and other non-grey literature. We identify the major journals publishing IWAM research, influential authors through citation counts, as well as the distribution and strength of source countries. Fruitfully, we find that the growth in numbers of such publications has continued to accelerate, and attention to both the biophysical and socioeconomic aspects has also been growing. On the other hand, our analysis strongly indicates that the former continue to dominate, partly by embracing integration with other biophysical sectors related to water - environment, groundwater, ecology, climate change and agriculture. In the social sciences the integration is occurring predominantly through economics, with the others, including law, policy and stakeholder participation, much diminished in comparison. We find there has been increasing attention to management and decision support systems, but a much weaker focus on uncertainty, a pervasive concern whose criticalities must be identified and managed for improving decision making. It would seem that interdisciplinary science still has a long way to go before crucial integration with the non-economic social sciences and uncertainty considerations are achieved more routinely.

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

Assessing the Plurality of Actors and Policy Interactions: Agent-Based Modelling of Renewable Energy Market Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc Deissenroth

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The ongoing deployment of renewable energy sources (RES calls for an enhanced integration of RES into energy markets, accompanied by a new set of regulations. In Germany, for instance, the feed-in tariff legislation for renewables has been successively replaced by first optional and then obligatory marketing of RES on competitive wholesale markets. This paper introduces an agent-based model that allows studying the impact of changing energy policy instruments on the economic performance of RES operators and marketers. The model structure, its components, and linkages are presented in detail; an additional case study demonstrates the capability of our sociotechnical model. We find that changes in the political framework cannot be mapped directly to RES operators as behaviour of intermediary market actors has to be considered as well. Characteristics and strategies of intermediaries are thus an important factor for successful RES marketing and further deployment. It is shown that the model is able to assess the emergence and stability of market niches.

A Scheme for the Integrated Assessment of Mitigation Options

Science.gov (United States)

Held, H.; Edenhofer, O.

2003-04-01

After some consensus has been achieved that the global mean temperature will have increased by 1.4 to 5.8^oC at the end of this century in case of continued ``business as usual'' greenhouse gas emissions, society has to decide if or which mitigation measures should be taken. A new integrated assessment project on this very issue will be started at PIK in spring 2003. The assessment will cover economic aspects as well as potential side effects of various measures. In the economic module, the effects of investment decisions on technological innovation will be explicitly taken into account. Special emphasize will be put on the issue of uncertainty. Hereby we distinguish the uncertainty related to the Integrated Assessment modules, including the economic module, from the fact that no over-complex system can be fully captured by a model. Therefore, a scheme for the assessment of the ``residual'', the non-modelled part of the system, needs to be worked out. The scheme must be truly interdisciplinary, i.e. must be applicable to at least the natural science and the economic aspects. A scheme based on meta-principles like minimum persistence, ubiquity, or irreversibility of potential measures appears to be a promising candidate. An implementation of ubiquity as at present successfully operated in environmental chemistry may serve as a guideline [1]. Here, the best-known mechanism within a complex impact chain of potentially harmful chemicals, their transport, is captured by a reaction-diffusion mechanism [2]. begin{thebibliography}{0} bibitem{s} M. Scheringer, Persistence and spatial range as endpoints of an exposure-based assessment of organic chemicals. Environ. Sci. Technol. 30: 1652-1659 (1996). bibitem{h} H. Held, Robustness of spatial ranges of environmental chemicals with respect to model dimension, accepted for publication in Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assessment.

Triangular model integrating clinical teaching and assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdelaziz A

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Adel Abdelaziz,1,2 Emad Koshak3 1Medical Education Development Unit, Faculty of Medicine, Al Baha University, Al Baha, Saudi Arabia; 2Medical Education Department, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Egypt; 3Dean and Internal Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Al Baha University, Al Baha, Saudi Arabia Abstract: Structuring clinical teaching is a challenge facing medical education curriculum designers. A variety of instructional methods on different domains of learning are indicated to accommodate different learning styles. Conventional methods of clinical teaching, like training in ambulatory care settings, are prone to the factor of coincidence in having varieties of patient presentations. Accordingly, alternative methods of instruction are indicated to compensate for the deficiencies of these conventional methods. This paper presents an initiative that can be used to design a checklist as a blueprint to guide appropriate selection and implementation of teaching/learning and assessment methods in each of the educational courses and modules based on educational objectives. Three categories of instructional methods were identified, and within each a variety of methods were included. These categories are classroom-type settings, health services-based settings, and community service-based settings. Such categories have framed our triangular model of clinical teaching and assessment. Keywords: curriculum development, teaching, learning, assessment, apprenticeship, community-based settings, health service-based settings

Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

2014-09-30

GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL DESIGNATED FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD PRODUCED BY A BUILDING PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lapidus Azariy Abramovich

2012-10-01

The theoretical background of the proposed approach consists in an integrated methodology implemented in the system engineering of construction projects. A building system may be represented as the aggregate of all stages of construction works and participants involved in them. The building system is object-oriented, and it is implemented under the impact of pre-determined environmental factors. The core constituent of the building system represents a Production Technology Module (PTM, or summarized groups of processes. The model formula designated for the assessment of the intensity of the ecological load produced by the construction project onto the environment may be represented as follows:

Advancing representation of hydrologic processes in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) through integration of the TOPographic MODEL (TOPMODEL) features

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J.; Wu, Y.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a study of the integration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the TOPographic MODEL (TOPMODEL) features for enhancing the physical representation of hydrologic processes. In SWAT, four hydrologic processes, which are surface runoff, baseflow, groundwater re-evaporation and deep aquifer percolation, are modeled by using a group of empirical equations. The empirical equations usually constrain the simulation capability of relevant processes. To replace these equations and to model the influences of topography and water table variation on streamflow generation, the TOPMODEL features are integrated into SWAT, and a new model, the so-called SWAT-TOP, is developed. In the new model, the process of deep aquifer percolation is removed, the concept of groundwater re-evaporation is refined, and the processes of surface runoff and baseflow are remodeled. Consequently, three parameters in SWAT are discarded, and two new parameters to reflect the TOPMODEL features are introduced. SWAT-TOP and SWAT are applied to the East River basin in South China, and the results reveal that, compared with SWAT, the new model can provide a more reasonable simulation of the hydrologic processes of surface runoff, groundwater re-evaporation, and baseflow. This study evidences that an established hydrologic model can be further improved by integrating the features of another model, which is a possible way to enhance our understanding of the workings of catchments.

Integrated assessment of water-power grid systems under changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, E.; Zhou, Z.; Betrie, G.

2017-12-01

Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. In this presentation, we are focusing on recent improvement in model development of thermoelectric power plant water use simulator, power grid operation and cost optimization model, and model integration that facilitate interaction among water and electricity generation under extreme climate events. A process based thermoelectric power water use simulator includes heat-balance, climate, and cooling system modules that account for power plant characteristics, fuel types, and cooling technology. The model is validated with more than 800 power plants of fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems. The power grid operation and cost optimization model was implemented for a selected regional in the Midwest. The case study will be demonstrated to evaluate the sensitivity and resilience of thermoelectricity generation and power grid under various climate and hydrologic extremes and potential economic consequences.

Assessment of Substance Abuse Behaviors in Adolescents’: Integration of Self-Control into Extended Parallel Process Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K Witte

2005-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction: An effective preventive health education program on drug abuse can be delivered by applying behavior change theories in a complementary fashion. Methods: The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of integrating self-control into Extended Parallel Process Model in drug substance abuse behaviors. A sample of 189 governmental high school students participated in this survey. Information was collected individually by completing researcher designed questionnaire and a urinary rapid immuno-chromatography test for opium and marijuana. Results: The results of the study show that 6.9% of students used drugs (especially opium and marijuana and also peer pressure was determinant factor for using drugs. Moreover the EPPM theoretical variables of perceived severity and perceived self-efficacy with self-control are predictive factors to behavior intention against substance abuse. In this manner, self-control had a significant effect on protective motivation and perceived efficacy. Low self- control was a predictive factor of drug abuse and low self-control students had drug abuse experience. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that an integration of self-control into EPPM can be effective in expressing and designing primary preventive programs against drug abuse, and assessing abused behavior and deviance behaviors among adolescent population, especially risk seekers

The Gold Coast Integrated Care Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Connor

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This article outlines the development of the Australian Gold Coast Integrated Care Model based on the elements identified in contemporary research literature as essential for successful integration of care between primary care, and acute hospital services. The objectives of the model are to proactively manage high risk patients with complex and chronic conditions in collaboration with General Practitioners to ultimately reduce presentations to the health service emergency department, improve the capacity of specialist outpatients, and decrease planned and unplanned admission rates. Central to the model is a shared care record which is maintained and accessed by staff in the Coordination Centre. We provide a process map outlining the care protocols from initial assessment to care of the patient presenting for emergency care. The model is being evaluated over a pilot three year proof of concept phase to determine economic and process perspectives. If found to be cost-effective, acceptable to patients and professionals and as good as or better than usual care in terms of outcomes, the strategic intent is to scale the programme beyond the local health service.

Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2010-04-01

Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

Economic Impact Assessment of Wind Power Integration: A Quasi-Public Goods Property Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiru Zhao

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The integration of wind power into power grid will bring some impacts on the multiple subjects of electric power system. Economic impacts of wind power integration on multiple subjects of China’s electric power system were quantitatively assessed from Quasi-public goods property perspective in this paper. Firstly, the Quasi-public goods property of transmission services provided by power grid corporations was elaborated. Secondly, the multiple subjects of China’s electric power system, which include electricity generation enterprises (EGEs, power grid corporations (PGCs, electricity consumers (ECs, and environment, were detailed analyzed. Thirdly, based on the OPF-based nodal price model and transmission service cost allocation model, the economic impact assessment model of wind power integration was built from Quasi-public goods property perspective. Then, the IEEE-24 bus system employed in this paper was introduced according to current status of China’s electric power system, and the modeling of wind turbine was also introduced. Finally, the simulation analysis was performed, and the economic impacts of wind power integration on EGEs, PGCs, ECs and Environment were calculated. The results indicate, from Quasi-public goods property perspective, the wind power integration will bring positive impacts on EGEs, PGCs and Environment, while negative impacts on ECs. The findings can provide references for power system managers, energy planners, and policy makers.

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Doug; Bauman, David; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2011-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

On integrating modeling software for application to total-system performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, L.C.; Wilson, M.L.

1994-05-01

We examine the processes and methods used to facilitate collaboration in software development between two organizations at separate locations -- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in New Mexico. Our software development process integrated the efforts of these two laboratories. Software developed at LLNL to model corrosion and failure of waste packages and subsequent releases of radionuclides was incorporated as a source term into SNLs computer models for fluid flow and radionuclide transport through the geosphere

The dynamics of multimodal integration: The averaging diffusion model.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Brandon M; Gao, Juan; Koenig, Scott; Palfy, Dylan; L McClelland, James

2017-12-01

We combine extant theories of evidence accumulation and multi-modal integration to develop an integrated framework for modeling multimodal integration as a process that unfolds in real time. Many studies have formulated sensory processing as a dynamic process where noisy samples of evidence are accumulated until a decision is made. However, these studies are often limited to a single sensory modality. Studies of multimodal stimulus integration have focused on how best to combine different sources of information to elicit a judgment. These studies are often limited to a single time point, typically after the integration process has occurred. We address these limitations by combining the two approaches. Experimentally, we present data that allow us to study the time course of evidence accumulation within each of the visual and auditory domains as well as in a bimodal condition. Theoretically, we develop a new Averaging Diffusion Model in which the decision variable is the mean rather than the sum of evidence samples and use it as a base for comparing three alternative models of multimodal integration, allowing us to assess the optimality of this integration. The outcome reveals rich individual differences in multimodal integration: while some subjects' data are consistent with adaptive optimal integration, reweighting sources of evidence as their relative reliability changes during evidence integration, others exhibit patterns inconsistent with optimality.

Environmental impact assessment of transportation projects: An analysis using an integrated GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

El-Gafy, Mohamed Anwar

Transportation projects will have impact on the environment. The general environmental pollution and damage caused by roads is closely associated with the level of economic activity. Although Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are dependent on geo-spatial information in order to make an assessment, there are no rules per se how to conduct an environmental assessment. Also, the particular objective of each assessment is dictated case-by-case, based on what information and analyses are required. The conventional way of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study is a time consuming process because it has large number of dependent and independent variables which have to be taken into account, which also have different consequences. With the emergence of satellite remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this research presents a new framework for the analysis phase of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for transportation projects based on the integration between remote sensing technology, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. By integrating the merits of the map overlay method and the matrix method, the framework analyzes comprehensively the environmental vulnerability around the road and its impact on the environment. This framework is expected to: (1) improve the quality of the decision making process, (2) be applied both to urban and inter-urban projects, regardless of transport mode, and (3) present the data and make the appropriate analysis to support the decision of the decision-makers and allow them to present these data to the public hearings in a simple manner. Case studies, transportation projects in the State of Florida, were analyzed to illustrate the use of the decision support framework and demonstrate its capabilities. This cohesive and integrated system will facilitate rational decisions through cost effective coordination of environmental information and data management that can be tailored to

Guide for developing conceptual models for ecological risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, G.W., II.

1996-05-01

Ecological conceptual models are the result of the problem formulation phase of an ecological risk assessment, which is an important component of the Remedial Investigation process. They present hypotheses of how the site contaminants might affect the site ecology. The contaminant sources, routes, media, routes, and endpoint receptors are presented in the form of a flow chart. This guide is for preparing the conceptual models; use of this guide will standardize the models so that they will be of high quality, useful to the assessment process, and sufficiently consistent so that connections between sources of exposure and receptors can be extended across operable units (OU). Generic conceptual models are presented for source, aquatic integrator, groundwater integrator, and terrestrial OUs

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

2013-10-15

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

A simple flow-concentration modelling method for integrating water ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A simple flow-concentration modelling method for integrating water quality and ... flow requirements are assessed for maintenance low flow, drought low flow ... the instream concentrations of chemical constituents that will arise from different ...

An EFQM excellence model for integrated healthcare governance.

Science.gov (United States)

Favaretti, Carlo; De Pieri, Paolo; Torri, Emanuele; Guarrera, Giovanni; Fontana, Fabrizio; Debiasi, Franco; Flor, Luciano

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to account for a ten-year experience with the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) Excellence Model implemented in the Trento Healthcare Trust. Since 2000, the EFQM Excellence Model provided an overarching framework to streamline business process governance, to support and improve its enablers and results. From 2000 to 2009, staff performed four internal (self) and four external EFQM-based assessments that provided guidance for an integrated management system. Over the years, key controls and assurances improved service quality through business planning, learning and practice cycles. Rising assessment ratings and improving results characterized the journey. The average self-assessment score (on a 1,000 points scale) was 290 in 2001, which increased to 610 in 2008. Since 2006, the Trust has been Recognized for Excellence (four stars). The organization improved significantly on customer satisfaction, people results and key service delivery and outcomes. The EFQM Model can act as an effective tool to meet governance demands and promote system-level results. The approach to integrated governance discussed here may support similar change processes in comparable organizations. The paper describes a unique experience when implementing EFQM within a large Italian healthcare system, which had a broader reach and lasted longer than any experience in Italian healthcare.

Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Amstel, van A.R.

2005-01-01

We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

Philosophy of integrity assessment of engineering components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaudhuri, Satyabrata

2008-01-01

Integrity assessment of engineering components in power plants and process industries has attracted global attention from the viewpoint of safety and economy for their optimum utilization. This paper describes some aspects of philosophy of component integrity such as life assessment technology, materials used and the factors limiting the serviceability of the components operating at high temperatures and pressures. Numerous investigations have been carried out all over the world to study changes in microstructure and material property due to prolonged service of the components to decide their further serviceability. This paper includes case studies on integrity assessment of service-exposed components carried out in our laboratory as well

Evaluating intersectoral collaboration: a model for assessment by service users

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bengt Ahgren

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: DELTA was launched as a project in 1997 to improve intersectoral collaboration in the rehabilitation field. In 2005 DELTA was transformed into a local association for financial co-ordination between the institutions involved. Based on a study of the DELTA service users, the purpose of this article is to develop and to validate a model that can be used to assess the integration of welfare services from the perspective of the service users. Theory: The foundation of integration is a well functioning structure of integration. Without such structural conditions, it is difficult to develop a process of integration that combines the resources and competences of the collaborating organisations to create services advantageous for the service users. In this way, both the structure and the process will contribute to the outcome of integration. Method: The study was carried out as a retrospective cross-sectional survey during two weeks, including all the current service users of DELTA. The questionnaire contained 32 questions, which were derived from the theoretical framework and research on service users, capturing perceptions of integration structure, process and outcome. Ordinal scales and open questions where used for the assessment. Results: The survey had a response rate of 82% and no serious biases of the results were detected. The study shows that the users of the rehabilitation services perceived the services as well integrated, relevant and adapted to their needs. The assessment model was tested for reliability and validity and a few modifications were suggested. Some key measurement themes were derived from the study. Conclusion: The model developed in this study is an important step towards an assessment of service integration from the perspective of the service users. It needs to be further refined, however, before it can be used in other evaluations of collaboration in the provision of integrated welfare services.

Attention modeling for video quality assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

You, Junyong; Korhonen, Jari; Perkis, Andrew

2010-01-01

averaged spatiotemporal pooling. The local quality is derived from visual attention modeling and quality variations over frames. Saliency, motion, and contrast information are taken into account in modeling visual attention, which is then integrated into IQMs to calculate the local quality of a video frame...... average between the global quality and the local quality. Experimental results demonstrate that the combination of the global quality and local quality outperforms both sole global quality and local quality, as well as other quality models, in video quality assessment. In addition, the proposed video...... quality modeling algorithm can improve the performance of image quality metrics on video quality assessment compared to the normal averaged spatiotemporal pooling scheme....

Structural Integrity Assessment of Reactor Containment Subjected to Aircraft Crash

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Junyong; Chang, Yoonsuk

2013-01-01

When an accident occurs at the NPP, containment building which acts as the last barrier should be assessed and analyzed structural integrity by internal loading or external loading. On many occasions that can occur in the containment internal such as LOCA(Loss Of Coolant Accident) are already reflected to design. Likewise, there are several kinds of accidents that may occur from the outside of containment such as earthquakes, hurricanes and strong wind. However, aircraft crash that at outside of containment is not reflected yet in domestic because NPP sites have been selected based on the probabilistic method. After intentional aircraft crash such as World Trade Center and Pentagon accident in US, social awareness for safety of infrastructure like NPP was raised world widely and it is time for assessment of aircraft crash in domestic. The object of this paper is assessment of reactor containment subjected to aircraft crash by FEM(Finite Element Method). In this paper, assessment of structural integrity of containment building subjected to certain aircraft crash was carried out. Verification of structure integrity of containment by intentional severe accident. Maximum stress 61.21MPa of horizontal shell crash does not penetrate containment. Research for more realistic results needed by steel reinforced concrete model

Diverse methods for integrable models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fehér, G.

2017-01-01

This thesis is centered around three topics, sharing integrability as a common theme. This thesis explores different methods in the field of integrable models. The first two chapters are about integrable lattice models in statistical physics. The last chapter describes an integrable quantum chain.

Logistic Regression Modeling of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources for Integrated Circuits

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gravier, Michael

1999-01-01

.... This thesis draws on available data from the electronics integrated circuit industry to attempt to assess whether statistical modeling offers a viable method for predicting the presence of DMSMS...

Assessing a Theoretical Model on EFL College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yu-Ping

2011-01-01

This study aimed to (1) integrate relevant language learning models and theories, (2) construct a theoretical model of college students' English learning performance, and (3) assess the model fit between empirically observed data and the theoretical model proposed by the researchers of this study. Subjects of this study were 1,129 Taiwanese EFL…

Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kelly, Rebecca A.; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Barreteau, Olivier; Borsuk, Mark E.; El-Sawah, Sondoss; Hamilton, Serena H.; Henriksen, Hans Jorgen; Kuikka, Sakari; Maier, Holger R.; Rizzoli, Andrea Emilio; van Delden, H.; Voinov, A.

2013-01-01

The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holistic understanding of the system processes (biophysical, social and economic), their complex interactions, and how they respond to various changes. Models, integrating different system processes into a

Obtaining mathematical models for assessing efficiency of dust collectors using integrated system of analysis and data management STATISTICA Design of Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Azarov, A. V.; Zhukova, N. S.; Kozlovtseva, E. Yu; Dobrinsky, D. R.

2018-05-01

The article considers obtaining mathematical models to assess the efficiency of the dust collectors using an integrated system of analysis and data management STATISTICA Design of Experiments. The procedure for obtaining mathematical models and data processing is considered by the example of laboratory studies on a mounted installation containing a dust collector in counter-swirling flows (CSF) using gypsum dust of various fractions. Planning of experimental studies has been carried out in order to reduce the number of experiments and reduce the cost of experimental research. A second-order non-position plan (Box-Bencken plan) was used, which reduced the number of trials from 81 to 27. The order of statistical data research of Box-Benken plan using standard tools of integrated system for analysis and data management STATISTICA Design of Experiments is considered. Results of statistical data processing with significance estimation of coefficients and adequacy of mathematical models are presented.

Integrative rodent models for assessing male reproductive toxicity of environmental endocrine active substances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacques Auger

2014-02-01

Full Text Available In the present review, we first summarize the main benefits, limitations and pitfalls of conventional in vivo approaches to assessing male reproductive structures and functions in rodents in cases of endocrine active substance (EAS exposure from the postulate that they may provide data that can be extrapolated to humans. Then, we briefly present some integrated approaches in rodents we have recently developed at the organism level. We particularly focus on the possible effects and modes of action (MOA of these substances at low doses and in mixtures, real-life conditions and at the organ level, deciphering the precise effects and MOA on the fetal testis. It can be considered that the in vivo experimental EAS exposure of rodents remains the first choice for studies and is a necessary tool (together with the epidemiological approach for understanding the reproductive effects and MOA of EASs, provided the pitfalls and limitations of the rodent models are known and considered. We also provide some evidence that classical rodent models may be refined for studying the multiple consequences of EAS exposure, not only on the reproductive axis but also on various hormonally regulated organs and tissues, among which several are implicated in the complex process of mammalian reproduction. Such models constitute an interesting way of approaching human exposure conditions. Finally, we show that organotypic culture models are powerful complementary tools, especially when focusing on the MOA. All these approaches have contributed in a combinatorial manner to a better understanding of the impact of EAS exposure on human reproduction.

Integrated approach to assess ecosystem health in harbor areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Bebianno, M J; Pereira, C G; Rey, F; Cravo, A; Duarte, D; D'Errico, G; Regoli, F

2015-05-01

Harbors are critical environments with strategic economic importance but with potential environmental impact: health assessment criteria are a key issue. An ecosystem health status approach was carried out in Portimão harbor as a case-study. Priority and specific chemical levels in sediments along with their bioavailability in mussels, bioassays and a wide array of biomarkers were integrated in a biomarker index (IBR index) and the overall data in a weight of evidence (WOE) model. Metals, PAHs, PCBs and HCB were not particularly high compared with sediment guidelines and standards for dredging. Bioavailability was evident for Cd, Cu and Zn. Biomarkers proved more sensitive namely changes of antioxidant responses, metallothioneins and vittellogenin-like proteins. IBR index indicated that site 4 was the most impacted area. Assessment of the health status by WOE approach highlighted the importance of integrating sediment chemistry, bioaccumulation, biomarkers and bioassays and revealed that despite some disturbance in the harbor area, there was also an impact of urban effluents from upstream. Environmental quality assessment in harbors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a landscape integrity model framework to support regional conservation planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Walston, Leroy J; Hartmann, Heidi M

2018-01-01

Land managers increasingly rely upon landscape assessments to understand the status of natural resources and identify conservation priorities. Many of these landscape planning efforts rely on geospatial models that characterize the ecological integrity of the landscape. These general models utilize measures of habitat disturbance and human activity to map indices of ecological integrity. We built upon these modeling frameworks by developing a Landscape Integrity Index (LII) model using geospatial datasets of the human footprint, as well as incorporation of other indicators of ecological integrity such as biodiversity and vegetation departure. Our LII model serves as a general indicator of ecological integrity in a regional context of human activity, biodiversity, and change in habitat composition. We also discuss the application of the LII framework in two related coarse-filter landscape conservation approaches to expand the size and connectedness of protected areas as regional mitigation for anticipated land-use changes.

Developing Integrated Care: Towards a development model for integrated care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.M.N. Minkman (Mirella)

2012-01-01

textabstractThe thesis adresses the phenomenon of integrated care. The implementation of integrated care for patients with a stroke or dementia is studied. Because a generic quality management model for integrated care is lacking, the study works towards building a development model for integrated

Conceptual design of an integrated technology model for carbon policy assessment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Dimotakes, Paul E. (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA)

2011-01-01

This report describes the conceptual design of a technology choice model for understanding strategies to reduce carbon intensity in the electricity sector. The report considers the major modeling issues affecting technology policy assessment and defines an implementable model construct. Further, the report delineates the basis causal structure of such a model and attempts to establish the technical/algorithmic viability of pursuing model development along with the associated analyses.

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems

Integrated age-structured length-based stock assessment model with uncertain process variances, structural uncertainty and environmental covariates: case of Central Baltic herring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mäntyniemi, Samu; Uusitalo, Laura; Peltonen, Heikki

2013-01-01

We developed a generic, age-structured, state-space stock assessment model that can be used as a platform for including information elicited from stakeholders. The model tracks the mean size-at-age and then uses it to explain rates of natural and fishing mortality. The fishery selectivity is divided...... to two components, which makes it possible to model the active seeking of the fleet for certain sizes of fish, as well as the selectivity of the gear itself. The model can account for uncertainties that are not currently accounted for in state-of-the-art models for integrated assessments: (i) The form...... of the stock–recruitment function is considered uncertain and is accounted for by using Bayesian model averaging. (ii) In addition to recruitment variation, process variation in natural mortality, growth parameters, and fishing mortality can also be treated as uncertain parameters...

Structural integrity assessment of piping components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kushwaha, H.S.; Chattopadhyay, J.

2008-01-01

Integrity assessment of piping components is very essential for safe and reliable operation of power plants. Over the last several decades, considerable work has been done throughout the world to develop a methodology for integrity assessment of pipes and elbows, appropriate for the material involved. However, there is scope of further development/improvement of issues, particularly for pipe bends, that are important for accurate integrity assessment of piping. Considering this aspect, a comprehensive Component Integrity Test Program was initiated in 1998 at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), India. In this program, both theoretical and experimental investigations were undertaken to address various issues related to the integrity assessment of pipes and elbows. Under the experimental investigations, fracture mechanics tests have been conducted on pipes and elbows of 200-400 mm nominal bore (NB) diameter with various crack configurations and sizes under different loading conditions. Tests on small tensile and three point bend specimens, machined from the tested pipes, have also been done to evaluate the actual stress-strain and fracture resistance properties of pipe/elbow material. The load-deflection curve and crack initiation loads predicted by non-linear finite element analysis matched well with the experimental results. The theoretical collapse moments of throughwall circumferentially cracked elbows, predicted by the recently developed equations, are found to be closer to the test data compared to the other existing equations. The role of stress triaxialities ahead of crack tip is also shown in the transferability of J-Resistance curve from specimen to component. The cyclic loading and system compliance effect on the load carrying capacity of piping components are investigated and new recommendations are made. (author)

Sensitivity study of optimal CO2 emission paths using a simplified structural integrated assessment model (SIAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasselmann, K.; Hasselmann, S.; Giering, R.; Ocana, V.; Storch, H. von

1997-01-01

A structurally highly simplified, globally integrated coupled climate-economic costs model SIAM (Structural Integrated Assessment Model) is used to compute optimal paths of global CO 2 emissions that minimize the net sum of climate damage and mitigation costs. It studies the sensitivity of the computed optimal emission paths. The climate module is represented by a linearized impulse-response model calibrated against a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model and a three-dimensional global carbon-cycle model. The cost terms are presented by expressions designed with respect to input assumptions. These include the discount rates for mitigation and damage costs, the inertia of the socio-economic system, and the dependence of climate damages on the changes in temperature and the rate of change of temperature. Different assumptions regarding these parameters are believed to cause the marked divergences of existing cost-benefit analyses. The long memory of the climate system implies that very long time horizons of several hundred years need to be considered to optimize CO 2 emissions on time scales relevant for a policy of sustainable development. Cost-benefit analyses over shorter time scales of a century or two can lead to dangerous underestimates of the long term climate impact of increasing greenhouse-gas emissions. To avert a major long term global warming, CO 2 emissions need to be reduced ultimately to very low levels. This may be done slowly but should not be interpreted as providing a time cushion for inaction: the transition becomes more costly the longer the necessary mitigation policies are delayed. However, the long time horizon provides adequate flexibility for later adjustments. Short term energy conservation alone is insufficient and can be viewed only as a useful measure in support of the necessary long term transition to carbon-free energy technologies. 46 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

Integrating local pastoral knowledge, participatory mapping, and species distribution modeling for risk assessment of invasive rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora in Ethiopia's Afar region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew W. Luizza

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The threats posed by invasive plants span ecosystems and economies worldwide. Local knowledge of biological invasions has proven beneficial for invasive species research, but to date no work has integrated this knowledge with species distribution modeling for invasion risk assessments. In this study, we integrated pastoral knowledge with Maxent modeling to assess the suitable habitat and potential impacts of invasive Cryptostegia grandiflora Robx. Ex R.Br. (rubber vine in Ethiopia's Afar region. We conducted focus groups with seven villages across the Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts. Pastoral knowledge revealed the growing threat of rubber vine, which to date has received limited attention in Ethiopia, and whose presence in Afar was previously unknown to our team. Rubber vine occurrence points were collected in the field with pastoralists and processed in Maxent with MODIS-derived vegetation indices, topographic data, and anthropogenic variables. We tested model fit using a jackknife procedure and validated the final model with an independent occurrence data set collected through participatory mapping activities with pastoralists. A Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis revealed areas with novel environmental conditions for future targeted surveys. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC and showed good fit across the jackknife models (average AUC = 0.80 and the final model (test AUC = 0.96. Our results reveal the growing threat rubber vine poses to Afar, with suitable habitat extending downstream of its current known location in the middle Awash River basin. Local pastoral knowledge provided important context for its rapid expansion due to acute changes in seasonality and habitat alteration, in addition to threats posed to numerous endemic tree species that provide critical provisioning ecosystem services. This work demonstrates the utility of integrating local

Do large-scale assessments measure students' ability to integrate scientific knowledge?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hee-Sun

2010-03-01

Large-scale assessments are used as means to diagnose the current status of student achievement in science and compare students across schools, states, and countries. For efficiency, multiple-choice items and dichotomously-scored open-ended items are pervasively used in large-scale assessments such as Trends in International Math and Science Study (TIMSS). This study investigated how well these items measure secondary school students' ability to integrate scientific knowledge. This study collected responses of 8400 students to 116 multiple-choice and 84 open-ended items and applied an Item Response Theory analysis based on the Rasch Partial Credit Model. Results indicate that most multiple-choice items and dichotomously-scored open-ended items can be used to determine whether students have normative ideas about science topics, but cannot measure whether students integrate multiple pieces of relevant science ideas. Only when the scoring rubric is redesigned to capture subtle nuances of student open-ended responses, open-ended items become a valid and reliable tool to assess students' knowledge integration ability.

Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Enhancing a Facility-Level Model for Proliferation Resistance Assessment of a Nuclear Enegry System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Olson, Jarrod; Thompson, Sandra E.

2009-10-26

The Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment project (PL09-UtilSocial) investigates the use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessments, including nonproliferation assessments, Proliferation Resistance (PR) assessments, safeguards assessments, and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about a host State and its posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system (NES) to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This objective of this project is to find and integrate social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social, and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation; and to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment. This report describes a modeling approach and how it might be used to support a location-specific assessment of the PR assessment of a particular NES. The report demonstrates the use of social modeling to enhance an existing assessment process that relies on primarily technical factors. This effort builds on a literature review and preliminary assessment performed as the first stage of the project and compiled in PNNL-18438. [ T his report describes an effort to answer questions about whether it is possible to incorporate social modeling into a PR assessment in such a way that we can determine the effects of social factors on a primarily technical assessment. This report provides: 1. background information about relevant social factors literature; 2. background information about a particular PR assessment approach relevant to this particular demonstration; 3. a discussion of social modeling undertaken to find and characterize social factors that are relevant to the PR assessment of a nuclear facility in a specific location; 4. description of an enhancement concept that integrates social factors into an existing, technically

The Effect of Computer Models as Formative Assessment on Student Understanding of the Nature of Models

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Mihwa; Liu, Xiufeng; Smith, Erica; Waight, Noemi

2017-01-01

This study reports the effect of computer models as formative assessment on high school students' understanding of the nature of models. Nine high school teachers integrated computer models and associated formative assessments into their yearlong high school chemistry course. A pre-test and post-test of students' understanding of the nature of…

High-resolution modelling of health impacts from air pollution using the integrated model system EVA

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, Kaj M.; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben; Silver, Jeremy D.

2014-05-01

A high-resolution assessment of health impacts from air pollution and related external cost has been conducted for Denmark using the integrated EVA model system. The EVA system has been further developed by implementing an air quality model with a 1 km x 1 km resolution covering the whole of Denmark. New developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as results for health impacts and related external costs over several decades. Furthermore, the sensitivity of health impacts to model resolution will be studied. We have developed an integrated model system EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain, to assess the health impacts and health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The system is used to support policymaking with respect to emission control. In Brandt et al. (2013a; 2013b), the EVA system was used to assess the impacts in Europe and Denmark from the past, present and future total air pollution levels as well as the contribution from the major anthropogenic emission sectors. The EVA system was applied using the hemispheric chemistry-transport model, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), with nesting capability for higher resolution over Europe (50 km x 50 km) and Northern Europe (16.7 km x 16.7 km). In this study an Urban Background Model (UBM) has been further developed to cover the whole of Denmark with a 1 km x 1 km resolution and the model has been implemented as a part of the integrated model system, EVA. The EVA system is based on the impact-pathway methodology. The site-specific emissions will result (via atmospheric transport and chemistry) in a concentration distribution, which together with detailed population data, are used to estimate the population-level exposure. Using exposure-response functions and economic valuations, the exposure is transformed into impacts on human health and related external costs. In this study

Integrated reactive self-assessment for programmatic learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corcoran, W.R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents a generalized method for using reactive self-assessment. The application is to programmatic learning involving the integration of reactive self-assessment results over a period of time. This paper also presents some of the results of one application of the process. Self-assessment, in general, is the assessment conducted or sponsored by an individual or organization of its own activities for the purpose of detecting improvement opportunities, either of the corrective or the enhancement types. Reactive self-assessment is a self-assessment activity conducted in reaction to a shortfall event. An integrative reactive self-assessment is a self-assessment that integrates a set of reactive self-assessment results. Programmatic learning is increasing the knowledge base in a program area. Self-assessment, in general, and reactive self-assessment, in particular, are required by federal quality requirements. One such program area is nuclear power plant testing, which is also required by federal quality requirements. Any program area could have been selected, but this one was selected because it was involved in the Chernobyl accident, the most consequential nuclear power accident up until the time of this writing. Other consequential accidents involving nuclear power plant testing were the Browns Ferry fire and the Salem overspeed event. (The author, of course, does not conduct nuclear power plant testing but is doing a self-assessment as if he were acting for an organization that did testing.)

Evaluation of air pollutant emissions projections from the GCAM-USA integrated assessment model

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains 2010 emissions of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and fine particulate matter by sector and state as modeled using the GCAM-USA integrated...

Integrated experimental and modeling assessment of potential effects of gas leakages on groundwater composition

Science.gov (United States)

Berta, Marton; Dethlefsen, Frank; Ebert, Markus; Schäfer, Dirk

2017-04-01

Storing renewably produced energy is one of the major challenges for the energy systems of the upcoming decades. Power-to-gas technologies coupled to geological storage of compressed air, methane, and hydrogen offer a comparatively safe and cost-efficient way for large-scale energy storage. However, the stored gases can potentially escape from their geological reservoir and may thus affect protected natural goods such as groundwater. The geochemical reactions responsible for these composition changes are usually investigated separately in experiments and numerical models. Here we present the outcomes of an integrated experimental and modeling approach through the example of a compressed air leakage scenario. A main consequence of the presence of oxygen to be assessed in an aquifer is pyrite oxidation, well known from acid mine drainage sites. However, in contrast to acid mine drainage sites exhibiting unsaturated sediments and fed by meteoric low-carbonate water, aquifers such as in Northern Germany contain a considerable amount of solid and dissolved inorganic carbon species potentially buffering pH changes. High pressure flow-through column experiments representing an intrusion of compressed air into an aquifer were carried out to quantify pyrite oxidation kinetics and to incorporate the observations into a descriptive reaction model. Surface passivation was found to decrease the reactivity of pyrite by more than 90% after a few months of experimental run time. We propose that the carbonate buffer system enables the precipitation of a passivating mineral layer on the pyrite surface reducing the overall reaction rate significantly. Consequently, an established rate law from the literature was extended by a reactive surface passivation term[1]. This improved reaction rate equation was incorporated into a 3D numerical model using OpenGeoSys with parameters representing similarly typical aquifer conditions the experiments had characterized. These boundaries include

An Integrated Method of Supply Chains Vulnerability Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiaguo Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Supply chain vulnerability identification and evaluation are extremely important to mitigate the supply chain risk. We present an integrated method to assess the supply chain vulnerability. The potential failure mode of the supply chain vulnerability is analyzed through the SCOR model. Combining the fuzzy theory and the gray theory, the correlation degree of each vulnerability indicator can be calculated and the target improvements can be carried out. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we use Kendall’s tau coefficient to measure the effect of different methods. The result shows that the presented method has the highest consistency in the assessment compared with the other two methods.

Assessment of the integration capability of system architectures from a complex and distributed software systems perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Leuchter, S.; Reinert, F.; Müller, W.

2014-06-01

Procurement and design of system architectures capable of network centric operations demand for an assessment scheme in order to compare different alternative realizations. In this contribution an assessment method for system architectures targeted at the C4ISR domain is presented. The method addresses the integration capability of software systems from a complex and distributed software system perspective focusing communication, interfaces and software. The aim is to evaluate the capability to integrate a system or its functions within a system-of-systems network. This method uses approaches from software architecture quality assessment and applies them on the system architecture level. It features a specific goal tree of several dimensions that are relevant for enterprise integration. These dimensions have to be weighed against each other and totalized using methods from the normative decision theory in order to reflect the intention of the particular enterprise integration effort. The indicators and measurements for many of the considered quality features rely on a model based view on systems, networks, and the enterprise. That means it is applicable to System-of-System specifications based on enterprise architectural frameworks relying on defined meta-models or domain ontologies for defining views and viewpoints. In the defense context we use the NATO Architecture Framework (NAF) to ground respective system models. The proposed assessment method allows evaluating and comparing competing system designs regarding their future integration potential. It is a contribution to the system-of-systems engineering methodology.

Development of Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Iron and Steel Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, T.T.; Sathaye, J.; Galitsky, C.

2010-09-30

Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With the working of energy programs and policies on carbon regulation, how to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions become extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions (e.g., carbon emission) for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing of GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models. In this report, we first conduct brief overview on different representations of end-use technologies (mitigation measures) in various energy-climate models, followed by problem statements, and a description of the basic concepts of quantifying the cost of conserved energy including integrating non-regrets options. A non-regrets option is defined as a GHG reduction option that is cost effective, without considering their additional benefits related to reducing GHG emissions. Based upon these, we develop information on costs of mitigation measures and technological change. These serve as the basis for collating the data on energy savings and costs for their future use in integrated assessment models. In addition to descriptions of the iron and steel making processes, and the mitigation measures identified in this study, the report includes tabulated databases on costs of measure implementation, energy savings, carbon-emission reduction, and lifetimes. The cost curve data on mitigation

Simulating power integration in Latin America to assess challenges, opportunities, and threats

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ochoa, Camila; Dyner, Isaac; Franco, Carlos J.

2013-01-01

Integration of electricity markets started to spread under the world-wide trend to economic liberalization. While some regions are managing better than others, lessons, both political and technical, highlight challenges ahead that need to be overcome. Since the early 2000s, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru have decided to integrate their electricity markets, eventually creating an enormous Latin American electricity exchange, ranging from Mexico to Chile. This poses opportunities and threats to the region as it involves cooperation, trust, and the will to overcome difficulties that may arise. In this direction, we developed a system dynamics model, linked to an iterative algorithm, to assess the likely effects of integration on both system expansion and security of supply. The model helps us understand the logic of the long-term system behavior under different policies, assuming Market Coupling as the dispatch mechanism. Based on theoretical grounds and after analyzing simulation results under different scenarios, we conclude that the integration of electricity markets may render important opportunities regarding security of supply and efficiency; and consequently energy might be supplied at lower prices, using “cleaner” technologies. However, benefits largely depend on policy, regulation, and technical issues. - Highlights: • We model the likely long-term dynamics of regional integration in Latin America. • The approach includes a dispatch algorithm linked to a system dynamics model. • The model simulates the evolution of installed capacity and prices. • We conclude: electricity integration may provide security of supply and efficiency. • Benefits of integration largely depend on policy, regulation, and technical issues

State Program Integrity Assessment (SPIA)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The State Program Integrity Assessment (SPIA) is the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) first national data collection on state Medicaid program...

78 FR 38318 - Integrated Science Assessment for Lead

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-26

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9827-4] Integrated Science Assessment for Lead AGENCY... availability of a final document titled, ``Integrated Science Assessment for Lead'' (EPA/600/R-10/075F). The... lead (Pb). DATES: The document will be available on or around June 26, 2013. ADDRESSES: The...

Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Health System Impact Modeling for Disasters and Mass-Casualty Events

Science.gov (United States)

Balbus, J. M.; Kirsch, T.; Mitrani-Reiser, J.

2017-12-01

Over recent decades, natural disasters and mass-casualty events in United States have repeatedly revealed the serious consequences of health care facility vulnerability and the subsequent ability to deliver care for the affected people. Advances in predictive modeling and vulnerability assessment for health care facility failure, integrated infrastructure, and extreme weather events have now enabled a more rigorous scientific approach to evaluating health care system vulnerability and assessing impacts of natural and human disasters as well as the value of specific interventions. Concurrent advances in computing capacity also allow, for the first time, full integration of these multiple individual models, along with the modeling of population behaviors and mass casualty responses during a disaster. A team of federal and academic investigators led by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH) is develoing a platform for integrating extreme event forecasts, health risk/impact assessment and population simulations, critical infrastructure (electrical, water, transportation, communication) impact and response models, health care facility-specific vulnerability and failure assessments, and health system/patient flow responses. The integration of these models is intended to develop much greater understanding of critical tipping points in the vulnerability of health systems during natural and human disasters and build an evidence base for specific interventions. Development of such a modeling platform will greatly facilitate the assessment of potential concurrent or sequential catastrophic events, such as a terrorism act following a severe heat wave or hurricane. This presentation will highlight the development of this modeling platform as well as applications not just for the US health system, but also for international science-based disaster risk reduction efforts, such as the Sendai Framework and the WHO SMART hospital project.

Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

2015-12-01

Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

Qualitative Analysis of Integration Adapter Modeling

OpenAIRE

Ritter, Daniel; Holzleitner, Manuel

2015-01-01

Integration Adapters are a fundamental part of an integration system, since they provide (business) applications access to its messaging channel. However, their modeling and configuration remain under-represented. In previous work, the integration control and data flow syntax and semantics have been expressed in the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) as a semantic model for message-based integration, while adapter and the related quality of service modeling were left for further studi...

Progress in integrated energy-economy-environment model system development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yasukawa, Shigeru; Mankin, Shuichi; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro; Nakano, Yasuyuki; Nagano, Takao

1987-11-01

The Integrated Energy-Economy-Environment Model System has been developed for providing analytical tools for the system analysis and technology assessments in the field of nuclear research and development. This model system consists of the following four model groups. The first model block installs 5 models and can serve to analyze and generate long-term scenarios on economy-energy-environment evolution. The second model block installs 2 models and can serve to analyze the structural transition phenomena in energy-economy-environment interactions. The third model block installs 2 models and can handle power reactor installation strategy problem and long-term fuel cycle analysis. The fourth model block installs 5 models and codes and can treats cost-benefit-risk analysis and assessments. This report describes mainly the progress and the outlines of application of the model system in these years after the first report on the research and development of the model system (JAERI-M 84 - 139). (author)

Battery energy storage systems: Assessment for small-scale renewable energy integration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nair, Nirmal-Kumar C.; Garimella, Niraj [Power Systems Group, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of Auckland, 38 Princes Street, Science Centre, Auckland 1142 (New Zealand)

2010-11-15

Concerns arising due to the variability and intermittency of renewable energy sources while integrating with the power grid can be mitigated to an extent by incorporating a storage element within the renewable energy harnessing system. Thus, battery energy storage systems (BESS) are likely to have a significant impact in the small-scale integration of renewable energy sources into commercial building and residential dwelling. These storage technologies not only enable improvements in consumption levels from renewable energy sources but also provide a range of technical and monetary benefits. This paper provides a modelling framework to be able to quantify the associated benefits of renewable resource integration followed by an overview of various small-scale energy storage technologies. A simple, practical and comprehensive assessment of battery energy storage technologies for small-scale renewable applications based on their technical merit and economic feasibility is presented. Software such as Simulink and HOMER provides the platforms for technical and economic assessments of the battery technologies respectively. (author)

Assessment of Dissolved Oxygen Mitigation at Hydropower Dams Using an Integrated Hydrodynamic/Water Quality/Fish Growth Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bevelhimer, Mark S [ORNL; Coutant, Charles C [ORNL

2006-07-01

Dissolved oxygen (DO) in rivers is a common environmental problem associated with hydropower projects. Approximately 40% of all FERC-licensed projects have requirements to monitor and/or mitigate downstream DO conditions. Most forms of mitigation for increasing DO in dam tailwaters are fairly expensive. One area of research of the Department of Energy's Hydropower Program is the development of advanced turbines that improve downstream water quality and have other environmental benefits. There is great interest in being able to predict the benefits of these modifications prior to committing to the cost of new equipment. In the case of turbine replacement or modification, there is a need for methods that allow us to accurately extrapolate the benefits derived from one or two turbines with better design to the replacement or modification of all turbines at a site. The main objective of our study was to demonstrate a modeling approach that integrates the effects of flow and water quality dynamics with fish bioenergetics to predict DO mitigation effectiveness over long river segments downstream of hydropower dams. We were particularly interested in demonstrating the incremental value of including a fish growth model as a measure of biological response. The models applied are a suite of tools (RMS4 modeling system) originally developed by the Tennessee Valley Authority for simulating hydrodynamics (ADYN model), water quality (RQUAL model), and fish growth (FISH model) as influenced by DO, temperature, and available food base. We parameterized a model for a 26-mile reach of the Caney Fork River (Tennessee) below Center Hill Dam to assess how improvements in DO at the dam discharge would affect water quality and fish growth throughout the river. We simulated different types of mitigation (i.e., at the turbine and in the reservoir forebay) and different levels of improvement. The model application successfully demonstrates how a modeling approach like this one can be

SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krysanova, V; Wechsung, F; Arnold, J; Srinivasan, R; Williams, J

2000-12-01

The model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was developed in order to provide a comprehensive GIS-based tool for hydrological and water quality modelling in mesoscale and large river basins (from 100 to 10,000 km{sup 2}), which can be parameterised using regionally available information. The model was developed for the use mainly in Europe and temperate zone, though its application in other regions is possible as well. SWIM is based on two previously developed tools - SWAT and MATSALU (see more explanations in section 1.1). The model integrates hydrology, vegetation, erosion, and nutrient dynamics at the watershed scale. SWIM has a three-level disaggregation scheme 'basin - sub-basins - hydrotopes' and is coupled to the Geographic Information System GRASS (GRASS, 1993). A robust approach is suggested for the nitrogen and phosphorus modelling in mesoscale watersheds. SWIM runs under the UNIX environment. Model test and validation were performed sequentially for hydrology, crop growth, nitrogen and erosion in a number of mesoscale watersheds in the German part of the Elbe drainage basin. A comprehensive scheme of spatial disaggregation into sub-basins and hydrotopes combined with reasonable restriction on a sub-basin area allows performing the assessment of water resources and water quality with SWIM in mesoscale river basins. The modest data requirements represent an important advantage of the model. Direct connection to land use and climate data provides a possibility to use the model for analysis of climate change and land use change impacts on hydrology, agricultural production, and water quality. (orig.)

A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

2007-01-01

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments

Integrability of the Rabi Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braak, D.

2011-01-01

The Rabi model is a paradigm for interacting quantum systems. It couples a bosonic mode to the smallest possible quantum model, a two-level system. I present the analytical solution which allows us to consider the question of integrability for quantum systems that do not possess a classical limit. A criterion for quantum integrability is proposed which shows that the Rabi model is integrable due to the presence of a discrete symmetry. Moreover, I introduce a generalization with no symmetries; the generalized Rabi model is the first example of a nonintegrable but exactly solvable system.

An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

2005-01-01

The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

2014-01-01

Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

Integrating satellite imagery with simulation modeling to improve burn severity mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Eva C. Karau; Pamela G. Sikkink; Robert E. Keane; Gregory K. Dillon

2014-01-01

Both satellite imagery and spatial fire effects models are valuable tools for generating burn severity maps that are useful to fire scientists and resource managers. The purpose of this study was to test a new mapping approach that integrates imagery and modeling to create more accurate burn severity maps. We developed and assessed a statistical model that combines the...

Data report for the integrity assessment report HNF-4589

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MCSHANE, D.S.

1999-01-01

Supporting data for the Integrity Assessment Report of Tanks TK-101 and TK-102. The purpose of this document is to compile supporting documentation for the Integrity Assessment Report (HNF 4589) for Tanks 101 and 102 in the 2194 Facility. This approach minimizes the size of the Integrity Assessment Report (IAR) (HNF-4589) and still provide a path to detailed information. This IAR addresses the evaluation of Tanks 101 and 102 and other existing components located in the 219-5 Waste Handling Facility

Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon; Hunsberger, Carol

2013-01-01

Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these models do not consider. Maintaining and enhancing robust livelihoods upon bioenergy deployment is an equally important sustainability goal that warrants greater attention. The social implications of biofuel production are complex, varied and place-specific, difficult to model, operationalize and quantify. However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case-study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences are a crucial complement to aggregate outcomes; this has not been given enough weight in comprehensive assessments to date. By narrowing the gap between place-specific case studies and global models, our discussion offers a route towards integrating livelihood and equity considerations into scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences. (letter)

Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

Science.gov (United States)

Creutzig, Felix; Corbera, Esteve; Bolwig, Simon; Hunsberger, Carol

2013-09-01

Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallholder livelihoods that these models do not consider. Maintaining and enhancing robust livelihoods upon bioenergy deployment is an equally important sustainability goal that warrants greater attention. The social implications of biofuel production are complex, varied and place-specific, difficult to model, operationalize and quantify. However, a rapidly developing body of social science literature is advancing the understanding of these interactions. In this letter we link human geography research on the interaction between biofuel crops and livelihoods in developing countries to integrated assessments on biofuels. We review case-study research focused on first-generation biofuel crops to demonstrate that food, income, land and other assets such as health are key livelihood dimensions that can be impacted by such crops and we highlight how place-specific and global dynamics influence both aggregate and distributional outcomes across these livelihood dimensions. We argue that place-specific production models and land tenure regimes mediate livelihood outcomes, which are also in turn affected by global and regional markets and their resulting equilibrium dynamics. The place-specific perspective suggests that distributional consequences are a crucial complement to aggregate outcomes; this has not been given enough weight in comprehensive assessments to date. By narrowing the gap between place-specific case studies and global models, our discussion offers a route towards integrating livelihood and equity considerations into scenarios of future bioenergy deployment, thus contributing to a key challenge in sustainability sciences.

Incentives and stability of international climate coalitions: An integrated assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo

2013-01-01

This paper analyses the incentives to participate in an international climate agreement and the stability of the resulting climate coalition using the integrated assessment model WITCH. Coalition stability is assessed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the aggregation of social welfare, and the severity of climate damages. The profitability, stability, and strong potential internal stability of a number of coalitions, those potentially effective in reducing GHG emissions, is explored in the paper. The main conclusion is that only the grand coalition, i.e. a coalition where all world regions cooperate to reduce emissions, can maintain GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO 2 -eq. However, this coalition is not internally stable, even when allowing for monetary transfers across world regions. Nonetheless, the paper also shows that strongly potentially internally stable coalitions exist, though of smaller size, which can mitigate global warming and limit GHG concentrations to 600 ppm CO 2 -eq. - Highlights: ► We analyse climate coalitions with an integrated assessment model. ► Coalitions’ profitability and stability is analysed under alternative assumptions. ► Effective coalitions should include larger emitters (such as India and China). ► A coalition that achieves 550 ppm CO 2 -eq is not internally stable. ► A stable coalition can achieve around 518 ppme in 2050 and 600 ppme in 2100

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lingjie Sun

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The power transformer is one of the most critical and expensive components for the stable operation of the power system. Hence, how to obtain the health condition of transformer is of great importance for power utilities. Multi-attribute decision-making (MADM, due to its ability of solving multi-source information problems, has become a quite effective tool to evaluate the health condition of transformers. Currently, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and Dempster–Shafer theory are two popular methods to solve MADM problems; however, these techniques rarely consider one-sidedness of the single weighting method and the exclusiveness hypothesis of the Dempster–Shafer theory. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces a novel decision-making model, which integrates the merits of fuzzy set theory, game theory and modified evidence combination extended by D numbers, to evaluate the health condition of transformers. A four-level framework, which includes three factors and seventeen sub-factors, is put forward to facilitate the evaluation model. The model points out the following: First, the fuzzy set theory is employed to obtain the original basic probability assignments for all indices. Second, the subjective and objective weights of indices, which are calculated by fuzzy AHP and entropy weight, respectively, are integrated to generate the comprehensive weights based on game theory. Finally, based on the above two steps, the modified evidence combination extended by D numbers, which avoids the limitation of the exclusiveness hypothesis in the application of Dempster–Shafer theory, is proposed to obtain the final assessment results of transformers. Case studies are given to demonstrate the proposed modeling process. The results show the effectiveness and engineering practicability of the model in transformer condition assessment.

A user's guide to the GoldSim/BLT-MS integrated software package:a low-level radioactive waste disposal performance assessment model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knowlton, Robert G.; Arnold, Bill Walter; Mattie, Patrick D.

2007-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, has over 30 years experience in the assessment of radioactive waste disposal and at the time of this publication is providing assistance internationally in a number of areas relevant to the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal systems. In countries with small radioactive waste programs, international technology transfer program efforts are often hampered by small budgets, schedule constraints, and a lack of experienced personnel. In an effort to surmount these difficulties, Sandia has developed a system that utilizes a combination of commercially available software codes and existing legacy codes for probabilistic safety assessment modeling that facilitates the technology transfer and maximizes limited available funding. Numerous codes developed and endorsed by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and codes developed and maintained by United States Department of Energy are generally available to foreign countries after addressing import/export control and copyright requirements. From a programmatic view, it is easier to utilize existing codes than to develop new codes. From an economic perspective, it is not possible for most countries with small radioactive waste disposal programs to maintain complex software, which meets the rigors of both domestic regulatory requirements and international peer review. Therefore, revitalization of deterministic legacy codes, as well as an adaptation of contemporary deterministic codes, provides a credible and solid computational platform for constructing probabilistic safety assessment models. This document is a reference users guide for the GoldSim/BLT-MS integrated modeling software package developed as part of a cooperative technology transfer project between Sandia National Laboratories and the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) in Taiwan for the preliminary assessment of several candidate low

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

Science.gov (United States)

Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Hejazi, M.; Tesfa, T.; Li, H.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Leung, L. R.

2013-11-01

An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology-routing-water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River

The Methodical Instrumentarium for Assessing the Competitiveness of Business Model of Trade Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grosul Victoria A.

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The article substantiates the need to assess the competitiveness of business model of enterprise. By analyzing, systematizing and generalizing the scientific work of foreign and domestic scientists, the basic methods of assessment were allocated and the feasibility of an integrated approach to assessing the competitiveness of business model of enterprise was argued. A scorecard system for evaluating the competitiveness of business model of trade enterprise has been developed and a structural and logical framework for the integrated assessment of the competitiveness of the indicated business model has been substantiated. Based on the Ishikawa diagram, potential competitive advantages have been defined and the «problem areas» have been identified that impact the competitiveness of business model of enterprise. The authors provide recommendations for transforming the business model of trade enterprise in the context of the enterprise’s orientation towards development.

Loose and Tight GNSS/INS Integrations: Comparison of Performance Assessed in Real Urban Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Falco, Gianluca; Pini, Marco; Marucco, Gianluca

2017-01-29

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) remain the principal mean of positioning in many applications and systems, but in several types of environment, the performance of standalone receivers is degraded. Although many works show the benefits of the integration between GNSS and Inertial Navigation Systems (INSs), tightly-coupled architectures are mainly implemented in professional devices and are based on high-grade Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). This paper investigates the performance improvements enabled by the tight integration, using low-cost sensors and a mass-market GNSS receiver. Performance is assessed through a series of tests carried out in real urban scenarios and is compared against commercial modules, operating in standalone mode or featuring loosely-coupled integrations. The paper describes the developed tight-integration algorithms with a terse mathematical model and assesses their efficacy from a practical perspective.

Comparison of finite element J-integral evaluations for the blunt crack model and the sharp crack model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan, Y.C.; Kennedy, J.M.

1983-01-01

In assessing the safety of a liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR), a major concern is that of hot sodium coming into contact with either unprotected concrete or steel-lined concrete equipment cells and containment structures. An aspect of this is the potential of concrete cracking which would significantly influence the safety assessment. Concrete cracking in finite element analysis can be modeled as a blunt crack in which the crack is assumed to be uniformly distributed throughout the area of the element. A blunt crack model based on the energy release rate and the effective strength concepts which was insensitive to the element size was presented by Bazant and Cedolin. Some difficulties were encountered in incorporating their approach into a general purpose finite element code. An approach based on the J-integral to circumvent some of the difficulties was proposed by Pan, Marchertas, and Kennedy. Alternatively, cracking can also be modeled as a sharp crack where the crack surface is treated as the boundary of the finite element mesh. The sharp crack model is adopted by most researchers and its J-integral has been well established. It is desirable to establish the correlation between the J-integrals, or the energy release rates, for the blunt crack model and the sharp crack model so that data obtained from one model can be used on the other

Double-shell tank waste transfer facilities integrity assessment plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hundal, T.S.

1998-01-01

This document presents the integrity assessment plan for the existing double-shell tank waste transfer facilities system in the 200 East and 200 West Areas of Hanford Site. This plan identifies and proposes the integrity assessment elements and techniques to be performed for each facility. The integrity assessments of existing tank systems that stores or treats dangerous waste is required to be performed to be in compliance with the Washington State Department of Ecology Dangerous Waste Regulations, Washington Administrative Code WAC-173-303-640 requirements

Integrated performance assessment model for waste package behavior and radionuclide release

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kossik, R.; Miller, I.; Cunnane, M.

1992-01-01

Golder Associates Inc. (GAI) has developed a probabilistic total system performance assessment and strategy evaluation model (RIP) which can be applied in an iterative manner to evaluate repository site suitability and guide site characterization. This paper describes one component of the RIP software, the waste package behavior and radionuclide release model. The waste package component model considers waste package failure by various modes, matrix alteration/dissolution, and radionuclide mass transfer. Model parameters can be described as functions of local environmental conditions. The waste package component model is coupled to component models for far-field radionuclide transport and disruptive events. The model has recently been applied to the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain

Integrated modeling and analysis methodology for precision pointing applications

Science.gov (United States)

Gutierrez, Homero L.

2002-07-01

Space-based optical systems that perform tasks such as laser communications, Earth imaging, and astronomical observations require precise line-of-sight (LOS) pointing. A general approach is described for integrated modeling and analysis of these types of systems within the MATLAB/Simulink environment. The approach can be applied during all stages of program development, from early conceptual design studies to hardware implementation phases. The main objective is to predict the dynamic pointing performance subject to anticipated disturbances and noise sources. Secondary objectives include assessing the control stability, levying subsystem requirements, supporting pointing error budgets, and performing trade studies. The integrated model resides in Simulink, and several MATLAB graphical user interfaces (GUI"s) allow the user to configure the model, select analysis options, run analyses, and process the results. A convenient parameter naming and storage scheme, as well as model conditioning and reduction tools and run-time enhancements, are incorporated into the framework. This enables the proposed architecture to accommodate models of realistic complexity.

A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolov, A. P.; Stone, P. H.

Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model's sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM

Human capital, innovation, and climate policy: An integrated assessment

OpenAIRE

Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Tavoni, Massimo

2012-01-01

This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation in the presence of climate and educational policies. Using recent empirical estimates, human capital and general purpose R&D are introduced in an integrated assessment model that has been extensively applied to study the climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean energy R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Human capital incre...

Topological quantum theories and integrable models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keski-Vakkuri, E.; Niemi, A.J.; Semenoff, G.; Tirkkonen, O.

1991-01-01

The path-integral generalization of the Duistermaat-Heckman integration formula is investigated for integrable models. It is shown that for models with periodic classical trajectories the path integral reduces to a form similar to the finite-dimensional Duistermaat-Heckman integration formula. This provides a relation between exactness of the stationary-phase approximation and Morse theory. It is also argued that certain integrable models can be related to topological quantum theories. Finally, it is found that in general the stationary-phase approximation presumes that the initial and final configurations are in different polarizations. This is exemplified by the quantization of the SU(2) coadjoint orbit

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Mörtberg, U M; Balfors, B; Knol, W C

2007-03-01

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.

Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

Science.gov (United States)

Dessens, O.

2017-12-01

Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this

Business and technology integrated model

OpenAIRE

Noce, Irapuan; Carvalho, João Álvaro

2011-01-01

There is a growing interest in business modeling and architecture in the areas of management and information systems. One of the issues in the area is the lack of integration between the modeling techniques that are employed to support business development and those used for technology modeling. This paper proposes a modeling approach that is capable of integrating the modeling of the business and of the technology. By depicting the business model, the organization structure and the technolog...

Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

Science.gov (United States)

Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

2010-01-01

The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

A novel integrated assessment methodology of urban water reuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Listowski, A; Ngo, H H; Guo, W S; Vigneswaran, S

2011-01-01

Wastewater is no longer considered a waste product and water reuse needs to play a stronger part in securing urban water supply. Although treatment technologies for water reclamation have significantly improved the question that deserves further analysis is, how selection of a particular wastewater treatment technology relates to performance and sustainability? The proposed assessment model integrates; (i) technology, characterised by selected quantity and quality performance parameters; (ii) productivity, efficiency and reliability criteria; (iii) quantitative performance indicators; (iv) development of evaluation model. The challenges related to hierarchy and selections of performance indicators have been resolved through the case study analysis. The goal of this study is to validate a new assessment methodology in relation to performance of the microfiltration (MF) technology, a key element of the treatment process. Specific performance data and measurements were obtained at specific Control and Data Acquisition Points (CP) to satisfy the input-output inventory in relation to water resources, products, material flows, energy requirements, chemicals use, etc. Performance assessment process contains analysis and necessary linking across important parametric functions leading to reliable outcomes and results.

A Process Model for Assessing Adolescent Risk for Suicide.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer

1998-01-01

This comprehensive assessment process model includes primary, secondary, and situational risk factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or risk for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client model that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…

Integrated Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal

Science.gov (United States)

Rickels, W.; Reith, F.; Keller, D.; Oschlies, A.; Quaas, M. F.

2018-03-01

To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2°C and to limit long-term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) is becoming increasingly necessary. We analyze optimal and cost-effective climate policies in the dynamic integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate and the economy (DICE2016R) and investigate (1) the utilization of (ocean) CDR under different climate objectives, (2) the sensitivity of policies with respect to carbon cycle feedbacks, and (3) how well carbon cycle feedbacks are captured in the carbon cycle models used in state-of-the-art IAMs. Overall, the carbon cycle model in DICE2016R shows clear improvements compared to its predecessor, DICE2013R, capturing much better long-term dynamics and also oceanic carbon outgassing due to excess oceanic storage of carbon from CDR. However, this comes at the cost of a (too) tight short-term remaining emission budget, limiting the model suitability to analyze low-emission scenarios accurately. With DICE2016R, the compliance with the 2°C goal is no longer feasible without negative emissions via CDR. Overall, the optimal amount of CDR has to take into account (1) the emission substitution effect and (2) compensation for carbon cycle feedbacks.

INTEGRATED CORPORATE STRATEGY MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CATALINA SORIANA SITNIKOV

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Corporations are at present operating in demanding and highly unsure periods, facing a mixture of increased macroeconomic need, competitive and capital market dangers, and in many cases, the prospect for significant technical and regulative gap. Throughout these demanding and highly unsure times, the corporations must pay particular attention to corporate strategy. In present times, corporate strategy must be perceived and used as a function of various fields, covers, and characters as well as a highly interactive system. For the corporation's strategy to become a competitive advantage is necessary to understand and also to integrate it in a holistic model to ensure sustainable progress of corporation activities under the optimum conditions of profitability. The model proposed in this paper is aimed at integrating the two strategic models, Hoshin Kanri and Integrated Strategy Model, as well as their consolidation with the principles of sound corporate governance set out by the OECD.

B Plant low level waste system integrity assessment report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walter, E.J.

1995-09-01

This document provides the report of the integrity assessment activities for the B Plant low level waste system. The assessment activities were in response to requirements of the Washington State Dangerous Waste Regulations, Washington Administrative Code (WAC), 173-303-640. This integrity assessment report supports compliance with Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order interim milestone target action M-32-07-T03

An Integrated Approach for Characterization of Uncertainty in Complex Best Estimate Safety Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pourgol-Mohamad, Mohammad; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali

2013-01-01

This paper discusses an approach called Integrated Methodology for Thermal-Hydraulics Uncertainty Analysis (IMTHUA) to characterize and integrate a wide range of uncertainties associated with the best estimate models and complex system codes used for nuclear power plant safety analyses. Examples of applications include complex thermal hydraulic and fire analysis codes. In identifying and assessing uncertainties, the proposed methodology treats the complex code as a 'white box', thus explicitly treating internal sub-model uncertainties in addition to the uncertainties related to the inputs to the code. The methodology accounts for uncertainties related to experimental data used to develop such sub-models, and efficiently propagates all uncertainties during best estimate calculations. Uncertainties are formally analyzed and probabilistically treated using a Bayesian inference framework. This comprehensive approach presents the results in a form usable in most other safety analyses such as the probabilistic safety assessment. The code output results are further updated through additional Bayesian inference using any available experimental data, for example from thermal hydraulic integral test facilities. The approach includes provisions to account for uncertainties associated with user-specified options, for example for choices among alternative sub-models, or among several different correlations. Complex time-dependent best-estimate calculations are computationally intense. The paper presents approaches to minimize computational intensity during the uncertainty propagation. Finally, the paper will report effectiveness and practicality of the methodology with two applications to a complex thermal-hydraulics system code as well as a complex fire simulation code. In case of multiple alternative models, several techniques, including dynamic model switching, user-controlled model selection, and model mixing, are discussed. (authors)

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC): gap analysis for high fidelity and performance assessment code development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Joon H.; Siegel, Malcolm Dean; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe Jr.; Webb, Stephen Walter; Dewers, Thomas A.; Mariner, Paul E.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Fuller, Timothy J.; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Wang, Yifeng

2011-01-01

This report describes a gap analysis performed in the process of developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repository designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with rigorous verification, validation, and software quality requirements. The gap analyses documented in this report were are performed during an initial gap analysis to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC, and during follow-on activities that delved into more detailed assessments of the various codes that were acquired, studied, and tested. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. The gap analysis indicates that significant capabilities may already exist in the existing THC codes although there is no single code able to fully account for all physical and chemical processes involved in a waste disposal system. Large gaps exist in modeling chemical processes and their couplings with other processes. The coupling of chemical processes with flow transport and mechanical deformation remains challenging. The data for extreme environments (e.g., for elevated temperature and high ionic strength media) that are

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) : gap analysis for high fidelity and performance assessment code development.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Joon H.; Siegel, Malcolm Dean; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe, Jr.; Webb, Stephen Walter; Dewers, Thomas A.; Mariner, Paul E.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Fuller, Timothy J.; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Wang, Yifeng

2011-03-01

This report describes a gap analysis performed in the process of developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repository designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with rigorous verification, validation, and software quality requirements. The gap analyses documented in this report were are performed during an initial gap analysis to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC, and during follow-on activities that delved into more detailed assessments of the various codes that were acquired, studied, and tested. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. The gap analysis indicates that significant capabilities may already exist in the existing THC codes although there is no single code able to fully account for all physical and chemical processes involved in a waste disposal system. Large gaps exist in modeling chemical processes and their couplings with other processes. The coupling of chemical processes with flow transport and mechanical deformation remains challenging. The data for extreme environments (e.g., for elevated temperature and high ionic strength media) that are

Integration of contributed data with HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model for flood inundation and damage assessment: 2015 Dallas Texas Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Sava, E.; Thornton, J. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.; Cervone, G.

2016-12-01

Transportation infrastructure networks in urban areas are highly sensitive to natural disasters, yet are a very critical source for the success of rescue, recovery, and renovation operations. Therefore, prompt restoration of such networks is of high importance for disaster relief services. Satellite and aerial images provide data with high spatial and temporal resolution and are a powerful tool for monitoring the environment and mapping the spatio-temporal variability of the Earth's surface. They provide a synoptic overview and give useful environmental information for a wide range of scales, from entire continents to urban areas, with spatial pixel resolutions ranging from kilometers to centimeters. However, sensor limitations are often a serious drawback since no single sensor offers the optimal spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution at the same time. Specific data may not be collected in the time and space most urgently required and/or may it contain gaps as a result of the satellite revisit time, atmospheric opacity, or other obstructions. In this study, the feasibility of integrating multiple sources of contributed data including remotely sensed datasets and open-source geospatial datasets, into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulations is assessed. The 2015 Dallas floods that caused up to $61 million dollars in damage was selected for this study. A Hydraulic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was developed for the study area, using reservoir surcharge releases and geometry provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Fort Worth District. The simulated flood inundation is compared with the "contributed data" for the location (such as Civil Air Patrol data and WorldView 3 dataset) which indicated the model's lack of representing lateral inflows near the upstream section. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed that used local precipitation and discharge values in the vicinity to estimate the lateral flows

Integrated model-experimental framework to assess carbon cycle components in disturbed mountainous terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Stenzel, J.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; McNellis, B.; Walsh, E.

2017-12-01

In forests vulnerable to drought and fire, there is critical need for in situ carbon and water balance measurements that can be integrated with earth system modeling to predict climate feedbacks. Model development can be improved by measurements that inform a mechanistic understanding of the component fluxes of net carbon uptake (i.e., NPP, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration) and water use, with specific focus on responses to climate and disturbance. By integrating novel field-based instrumental technology, existing datasets, and state-of-the-art earth system modeling, we are attempting to 1) quantify the spatial and temporal impacts of forest thinning on regional biogeochemical cycling and climate 2) evaluate the impact of forest thinning on forest resilience to drought and disturbance in the Northern Rockies ecoregion. The combined model-experimental framework enables hypothesis testing that would otherwise be impossible because the use of new in situ high temporal resolution field technology allows for research in remote and mountainous terrains that have been excluded from eddy-covariance techniques. Our preliminary work has revealed some underlying difficulties with the new instrumentation that has led to new ideas and modified methods to correctly measure the component fluxes. Our observations of C balance following the thinning operations indicate that the recovery period (source to sink) is longer than hypothesized. Finally, we have incorporated a new plant functional type parameterization for Northern Rocky mixed-conifer into our simulation modeling using regional and site observations.

Integrating model checking with HiP-HOPS in model-based safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sharvia, Septavera; Papadopoulos, Yiannis

2015-01-01

The ability to perform an effective and robust safety analysis on the design of modern safety–critical systems is crucial. Model-based safety analysis (MBSA) has been introduced in recent years to support the assessment of complex system design by focusing on the system model as the central artefact, and by automating the synthesis and analysis of failure-extended models. Model checking and failure logic synthesis and analysis (FLSA) are two prominent MBSA paradigms. Extensive research has placed emphasis on the development of these techniques, but discussion on their integration remains limited. In this paper, we propose a technique in which model checking and Hierarchically Performed Hazard Origin and Propagation Studies (HiP-HOPS) – an advanced FLSA technique – can be applied synergistically with benefit for the MBSA process. The application of the technique is illustrated through an example of a brake-by-wire system. - Highlights: • We propose technique to integrate HiP-HOPS and model checking. • State machines can be systematically constructed from HiP-HOPS. • The strengths of different MBSA techniques are combined. • Demonstrated through modeling and analysis of brake-by-wire system. • Root cause analysis is automated and system dynamic behaviors analyzed and verified

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

2009-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Selection of a representative subset of global climate models that captures the profile of regional changes for integrated climate impacts assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex C. Ruane

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farcas, Adrian [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom); Thompson, Paul M. [Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL (United Kingdom); Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom)

2016-02-15

Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D.

2016-01-01

Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

Separations and safeguards model integration.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cipiti, Benjamin B.; Zinaman, Owen

2010-09-01

Research and development of advanced reprocessing plant designs can greatly benefit from the development of a reprocessing plant model capable of transient solvent extraction chemistry. This type of model can be used to optimize the operations of a plant as well as the designs for safeguards, security, and safety. Previous work has integrated a transient solvent extraction simulation module, based on the Solvent Extraction Process Having Interaction Solutes (SEPHIS) code developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with the Separations and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) developed at Sandia National Laboratory, as a first step toward creating a more versatile design and evaluation tool. The goal of this work was to strengthen the integration by linking more variables between the two codes. The results from this integrated model show expected operational performance through plant transients. Additionally, ORIGEN source term files were integrated into the SSPM to provide concentrations, radioactivity, neutron emission rate, and thermal power data for various spent fuels. This data was used to generate measurement blocks that can determine the radioactivity, neutron emission rate, or thermal power of any stream or vessel in the plant model. This work examined how the code could be expanded to integrate other separation steps and benchmark the results to other data. Recommendations for future work will be presented.

When Models and Observations Collide: Journeying towards an Integrated Snow Depth Product

Science.gov (United States)

Webster, M.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Markus, T.; Kurtz, N. T.; Kwok, R.; Perovich, D. K.

2017-12-01

Knowledge of snow depth is essential for assessing changes in sea ice mass balance due to snow's insulating and reflective properties. In remote sensing applications, the accuracy of sea ice thickness retrievals from altimetry crucially depends on snow depth. Despite the need for snow depth data, we currently lack continuous observations that capture the basin-scale snow depth distribution and its seasonal evolution. Recent in situ and remote sensing observations are sparse in space and time, and contain uncertainties, caveats, and/or biases that often require careful interpretation. Likewise, using model output for remote sensing applications is limited due to uncertainties in atmospheric forcing and different treatments of snow processes. Here, we summarize our efforts in bringing observational and model data together to develop an approach for an integrated snow depth product. We start with a snow budget model and incrementally incorporate snow processes to determine the effects on snow depth and to assess model sensitivity. We discuss lessons learned in model-observation integration and ideas for potential improvements to the treatment of snow in models.

Introduction and Assessment of a Blended-Learning Model to Teach Patient Assessment in a Doctor of Pharmacy Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Prescott, William Allan; Woodruff, Ashley; Prescott, Gina M; Albanese, Nicole; Bernhardi, Christian; Doloresco, Fred

2016-12-25

Objective. To integrate a blended-learning model into a two-course patient assessment sequence in a doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) program and to assess the academic performance and perceptions of enrolled students. Design. A blended-learning model consisting of a flipped classroom format was integrated into a patient assessment (PA) course sequence. Course grades of students in the blended-learning (intervention) and traditional-classroom (control) groups were compared. A survey was administered to assess student perceptions. Assessment. The mean numeric grades of students in the intervention group were higher than those of students in the traditional group (PA1 course: 92.2±3.1 vs 90.0±4.3; and PA2 course: 90.3±4.9 vs 85.8±4.2). Eighty-six percent of the students in the intervention group agreed that the instructional methodologies used in this course facilitated understanding of the material. Conclusion. The blended-learning model was associated with improved academic performance and was well-received by students.

Summary Report for ASC L2 Milestone #4782: Assess Newly Emerging Programming and Memory Models for Advanced Architectures on Integrated Codes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neely, J. R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hornung, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Black, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Robinson, P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2014-09-29

This document serves as a detailed companion to the powerpoint slides presented as part of the ASC L2 milestone review for Integrated Codes milestone #4782 titled “Assess Newly Emerging Programming and Memory Models for Advanced Architectures on Integrated Codes”, due on 9/30/2014, and presented for formal program review on 9/12/2014. The program review committee is represented by Mike Zika (A Program Project Lead for Kull), Brian Pudliner (B Program Project Lead for Ares), Scott Futral (DEG Group Lead in LC), and Mike Glass (Sierra Project Lead at Sandia). This document, along with the presentation materials, and a letter of completion signed by the review committee will act as proof of completion for this milestone.

Integrating Expert Knowledge with Statistical Analysis for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at Regional Scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christos Chalkias

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an integration landslide susceptibility model by combining expert-based and bivariate statistical analysis (Landslide Susceptibility Index—LSI approaches is presented. Factors related with the occurrence of landslides—such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, land cover, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA—were analyzed within a GIS environment. This integrated model produced a landslide susceptibility map which categorized the study area according to the probability level of landslide occurrence. The accuracy of the final map was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC analysis depending on an independent (validation dataset of landslide events. The prediction ability was found to be 76% revealing that the integration of statistical analysis with human expertise can provide an acceptable landslide susceptibility assessment at regional scale.

Dependability modeling and assessment in UML-based software development.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernardi, Simona; Merseguer, José; Petriu, Dorina C

2012-01-01

Assessment of software nonfunctional properties (NFP) is an important problem in software development. In the context of model-driven development, an emerging approach for the analysis of different NFPs consists of the following steps: (a) to extend the software models with annotations describing the NFP of interest; (b) to transform automatically the annotated software model to the formalism chosen for NFP analysis; (c) to analyze the formal model using existing solvers; (d) to assess the software based on the results and give feedback to designers. Such a modeling→analysis→assessment approach can be applied to any software modeling language, be it general purpose or domain specific. In this paper, we focus on UML-based development and on the dependability NFP, which encompasses reliability, availability, safety, integrity, and maintainability. The paper presents the profile used to extend UML with dependability information, the model transformation to generate a DSPN formal model, and the assessment of the system properties based on the DSPN results.

From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Di Vittorio, Alan V. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chini, Louise M. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Truesdale, John E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Craig, Anthony P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hurtt, George [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Thornton, Peter E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Thomson, Allison M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-11-27

Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

Life cycle integrated thermoeconomic assessment method for energy conversion systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanbur, Baris Burak; Xiang, Liming; Dubey, Swapnil; Choo, Fook Hoong; Duan, Fei

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A new LCA integrated thermoeconomic approach is presented. • The new unit fuel cost is found 4.8 times higher than the classic method. • The new defined parameter increased the sustainability index by 67.1%. • The case studies are performed for countries with different CO 2 prices. - Abstract: Life cycle assessment (LCA) based thermoeconomic modelling has been applied for the evaluation of energy conversion systems since it provided more comprehensive and applicable assessment criteria. This study proposes an improved thermoeconomic method, named as life cycle integrated thermoeconomic assessment (LCiTA), which combines the LCA based enviroeconomic parameters in the production steps of the system components and fuel with the conventional thermoeconomic method for the energy conversion systems. A micro-cogeneration system is investigated and analyzed with the LCiTA method, the comparative studies show that the unit cost of fuel by using the LCiTA method is 3.8 times higher than the conventional thermoeconomic model. It is also realized that the enviroeconomic parameters during the operation of the system components do not have significant impacts on the system streams since the exergetic parameters are dominant in the thermoeconomic calculations. Moreover, the improved sustainability index is found roundly 67.2% higher than the previously defined sustainability index, suggesting that the enviroeconomic and thermoeconomic parameters decrease the impact of the exergy destruction in the sustainability index definition. To find the feasible operation conditions for the micro-cogeneration system, different assessment strategies are presented. Furthermore, a case study for Singapore is conducted to see the impact of the forecasted carbon dioxide prices on the thermoeconomic performance of the micro-cogeneration system.

Development of tools and models for computational fracture assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talja, H.; Santaoja, K.

1998-01-01

The aim of the work presented in this paper has been to develop and test new computational tools and theoretically more sound methods for fracture mechanical analysis. The applicability of the engineering integrity assessment system MASI for evaluation of piping components has been extended. The most important motivation for the theoretical development have been the well-known fundamental limitations in the validity of J-integral, which limits its applicability in many important practical safety assessment cases. Examples are extensive plastic deformation, multimaterial structures and ascending loading paths (especially warm prestress, WPS). Further, the micromechanical Gurson model has been applied to several reactor pressure vessel materials. Special attention is paid to the transferability of Gurson model parameters from tensile test results to prediction of ductile failure behaviour of cracked structures. (author)

An integrated approach coupling physically based models and probabilistic method to assess quantitatively landslide susceptibility at different scale: application to different geomorphological environments

Science.gov (United States)

Vandromme, Rosalie; Thiéry, Yannick; Sedan, Olivier; Bernardie, Séverine

2016-04-01

Landslide hazard assessment is the estimation of a target area where landslides of a particular type, volume, runout and intensity may occur within a given period. The first step to analyze landslide hazard consists in assessing the spatial and temporal failure probability (when the information is available, i.e. susceptibility assessment). Two types of approach are generally recommended to achieve this goal: (i) qualitative approach (i.e. inventory based methods and knowledge data driven methods) and (ii) quantitative approach (i.e. data-driven methods or deterministic physically based methods). Among quantitative approaches, deterministic physically based methods (PBM) are generally used at local and/or site-specific scales (1:5,000-1:25,000 and >1:5,000, respectively). The main advantage of these methods is the calculation of probability of failure (safety factor) following some specific environmental conditions. For some models it is possible to integrate the land-uses and climatic change. At the opposite, major drawbacks are the large amounts of reliable and detailed data (especially materials type, their thickness and the geotechnical parameters heterogeneity over a large area) and the fact that only shallow landslides are taking into account. This is why they are often used at site-specific scales (> 1:5,000). Thus, to take into account (i) materials' heterogeneity , (ii) spatial variation of physical parameters, (iii) different landslide types, the French Geological Survey (i.e. BRGM) has developed a physically based model (PBM) implemented in a GIS environment. This PBM couples a global hydrological model (GARDENIA®) including a transient unsaturated/saturated hydrological component with a physically based model computing the stability of slopes (ALICE®, Assessment of Landslides Induced by Climatic Events) based on the Morgenstern-Price method for any slip surface. The variability of mechanical parameters is handled by Monte Carlo approach. The

A maturity model to assess organisational readiness for change

OpenAIRE

Zephir, Olivier; Minel, Stéphanie; Chapotot, Emilie

2011-01-01

International audience; The presented model which is developed in a European project allows project management teams to assess the organisational maturity to integrate new practices under structural or technological change. Maturity for change is defined here as workforce capability to operate effectively in transformed processes. This methodology is addressed to tackle organisational readiness to fulfil business objectives through technological and structural improvements. The tool integrate...

Guide for Regional Integrated Assessments: Handbook of Methods and Procedures, Version 5.1. Appendix 1

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Jones, James W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Antle, John; Ruane, Alex; Boote, Ken; Thorburn, Peter; Valdivia, Roberto; Porter, Cheryl; Janssen, Sander;

Integrating Ecohealth Assessment in the Americas | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

However, very few impact assessment laws are adequately implemented in Latin ... Integrated eco-health assessment law in the Americas : a hemispheric research ... IWRA/IDRC webinar on climate change and adaptive water management. International Water Resources Association, in close collaboration with IDRC, ...

Integrative Modeling of cap-rock Integrity in the Context of CO2 Storage: Evolution of Transport and Geochemical Properties and Impact on Performance and Safety Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bildstein, O.; Credoz, A.; Jullien, M.; Kervevan, C.; Audigane, P.; Jacquemet, N.; Lagneau, V.; Delaplace, P.; Perfetti, E.

2010-01-01

The objective of the 'Geocarbone-INTEGRITE' project (2005-2008) was to develop a methodology to assess the integrity of the cap-rock involved in the geological storage of CO 2 . A specific work package of the project (WP5) was dedicated to the integration of (1) the phenomenology describing the evolution of the storage system with a focus on the mechanisms occurring in the cap-rock and at the interface with the cap-rock, and (2) the data obtained from the investigation of petrographical, geomechanical, and geochemical properties, before and after reaction with CO 2 -rich solutions, performed in the other work packages (WP1 to WP4). This knowledge was introduced in numerical models and specific safety scenarios were defined in order to assess the performance of the CO 2 storage system. The results of the modeling show that the injection of CO 2 can potentially have a significant effect on the cap-rock by changing the porosity due to the dissolution and precipitation of minerals, but that the impact is limited to a zone from several decimeters to several meters of the cap-rock close to the interface with the reservoir depending on whether the supercritical carbon dioxide (SC-CO 2 ) plume enters into the cap-rock and if fractures are present at this location. The methodology used in this project can be applied to a pilot site for the injection of CO 2 in the Paris Basin. A key aspect of the safety of such a facility will be to look at the coupling of geochemical alteration and the evolution of geomechanical properties in the short and medium terms (several hundreds of years). The challenge for the future will be to structure and apply the safety assessment methodology with an operational finality, in order to support the robustness of the transition step to CGS projects at the industrial scale. (authors)

Using an integral projection model to assess the effect of temperature on the growth of gilthead seabream Sparus aurata.

Science.gov (United States)

Heather, F J; Childs, D Z; Darnaude, A M; Blanchard, J L

2018-01-01

Accurate information on the growth rates of fish is crucial for fisheries stock assessment and management. Empirical life history parameters (von Bertalanffy growth) are widely fitted to cross-sectional size-at-age data sampled from fish populations. This method often assumes that environmental factors affecting growth remain constant over time. The current study utilized longitudinal life history information contained in otoliths from 412 juveniles and adults of gilthead seabream, Sparus aurata, a commercially important species fished and farmed throughout the Mediterranean. Historical annual growth rates over 11 consecutive years (2002-2012) in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean) were reconstructed to investigate the effect of temperature variations on the annual growth of this fish. S. aurata growth was modelled linearly as the relationship between otolith size at year t against otolith size at the previous year t-1. The effect of temperature on growth was modelled with linear mixed effects models and a simplified linear model to be implemented in a cohort Integral Projection Model (cIPM). The cIPM was used to project S. aurata growth, year to year, under different temperature scenarios. Our results determined current increasing summer temperatures to have a negative effect on S. aurata annual growth in the Gulf of Lions. They suggest that global warming already has and will further have a significant impact on S. aurata size-at-age, with important implications for age-structured stock assessments and reference points used in fisheries.

Integrated Inflammatory Stress (ITIS) Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bangsgaard, Elisabeth O.; Hjorth, Poul G.; Olufsen, Mette S.

2017-01-01

maintains a long-term level of the stress hormone cortisol which is also anti-inflammatory. A new integrated model of the interaction between these two subsystems of the inflammatory system is proposed and coined the integrated inflammatory stress (ITIS) model. The coupling mechanisms describing....... A constant activation results in elevated levels of the variables in the model while a prolonged change of the oscillations in ACTH and cortisol concentrations is the most pronounced result of different LPS doses predicted by the model....

Non-integrable quantum field theories as perturbations of certain integrable models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delfino, G.; Simonetti, P.

1996-03-01

We approach the study of non-integrable models of two-dimensional quantum field theory as perturbations of the integrable ones. By exploiting the knowledge of the exact S-matrix and Form Factors of the integrable field theories we obtain the first order corrections to the mass ratios, the vacuum energy density and the S-matrix of the non-integrable theories. As interesting applications of the formalism, we study the scaling region of the Ising model in an external magnetic field at T ∼ T c and the scaling region around the minimal model M 2 , τ . For these models, a remarkable agreement is observed between the theoretical predictions and the data extracted by a numerical diagonalization of their Hamiltonian. (author). 41 refs, 9 figs, 1 tab

An architecture for integration of multidisciplinary models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Holst, Niels

2014-01-01

Integrating multidisciplinary models requires linking models: that may operate at different temporal and spatial scales; developed using different methodologies, tools and techniques; different levels of complexity; calibrated for different ranges of inputs and outputs, etc. On the other hand......, Enterprise Application Integration, and Integration Design Patterns. We developed an architecture of a multidisciplinary model integration framework that brings these three aspects of integration together. Service-oriented-based platform independent architecture that enables to establish loosely coupled...

Efficient Assessment of the Environment for Integral Urban Water Management

Science.gov (United States)

Rost, Grit; Londong, Jörg

2015-04-01

Introduction: Sustainable water supply and sanitation is fundamental, especially in countries that are also particularly vulnerable to water-related problems. The Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) approach makes sure that water management is organised in a transdisciplinary way taking into account the river basin, the hydrologic system and the appendant organisation like culture, law and economics. The main objective of IWRM is the sustainable organisation of water resources quality and quantity (GWP and INBO 2009). However there are more important targets in sustainable use of water resources. New sanitation systems are focussing on adding value and maintaining essential resources in circular flow. Focussing on material fluxes can contribute on water quality, food security, sustainable use of renewable energy, adaption on water scarcity and also on rising water and sanitation demand because of rapid urban and suburban growth (Price and Vojinović 2011; Rost et al 2013; Stäudel et al 2014). Problem: There are several planning tools for IWRM as well as for urban water management. But to complete the IWRM approach for the resource oriented concept a systematic assessment tool is missing. The assessment of crucial indicators obviously requires a lot of data from different subjects/disciplines, in different scales of detail and in different accuracy and in data acquisition (Karthe et al 2014). On the one hand there will be data abundance and on the other hand the data can be unavailable or unfeasible for example because of scale and specification(Rost et al 2013). Such a complex integrated concept requires a clearly worked out structure for the way of managing and priority setting. Purpose: To get systematic in the complex planning process the toolbox model is going to develop. The assessment of the environmental screening (one part of the toolbox) is going to be presented in this paper. The first step of assessment leans on the assertion that each of the

Route Assessment for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Based on Cloud Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xixia Sun

2014-01-01

Full Text Available An integrated route assessment approach based on cloud model is proposed in this paper, where various sources of uncertainties are well kept and modeled by cloud theory. Firstly, a systemic criteria framework incorporating models for scoring subcriteria is developed. Then, the cloud model is introduced to represent linguistic variables, and survivability probability histogram of each route is converted into normal clouds by cloud transformation, enabling both randomness and fuzziness in the assessment environment to be managed simultaneously. Finally, a new way to measure the similarity between two normal clouds satisfying reflexivity, symmetry, transitivity, and overlapping is proposed. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed route assessment approach outperforms fuzzy logic based assessment approach with regard to feasibility, reliability, and consistency with human thinking.

Coastal flooding impact evaluation using an INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model for Varna region, Western Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Prodanov, Bogdan

2017-04-01

The study presents evaluation and comparative analysis of storm induced flooding impacts on different coastal receptors at a scale of Varna region using INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model. The model was developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT project, as a part of Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) consisting of two phases. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process that evaluates coastal risk at a regional scale by means of coastal indices approach, which helps to identify potentially vulnerable coastal sectors: hot spots (HS). CRAF Phase 2 has the objective to assess and rank identified hotspots by detailed risk analysis done by jointly performing a hazard assessment and an impact evaluation on different categories (population, businesses, ecosystems, transport and utilities) using INDRA model at a regional level. Basically, the model assess the shock of events by estimating the impact on directly exposed to flooding hazard receptors of different vulnerability, as well as the potential ripple effects during an event in order to assess the "indirect" impacts, which occur outside the hazard area and/or continue after the event for all considered categories. The potential impacts are expressed in terms of uniform "Impact Indicators", which independently score the indirect impacts of these categories assessing disruption and recovery of the receptors. The ultimate hotspot ranking is obtained through the use of a Multi Criteria analysis (MCA) incorporated in the model, considering preferences of stakeholders. The case study area - Varna regional coast - is located on the western Black Sea, Bulgaria. The coastline, with a length of about 70 km, stretches from cape Ekrene to cape St. Atanas and includes Varna Bay. After application of CRAF Phase 1 three hotspots were selected for further analysis: Kabakum beach (HS1), Varna Central beach plus Port wall (HS2) and Artificial Island (HS3). For first two hotspots beaches and associated infrastructure are the assets

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

Science.gov (United States)

Snyder, Abigail C.; Link, Robert P.; Calvin, Katherine V.

2017-11-01

Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable-region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is

Pathways and impacts of nitrogen in water bodies: establishing a framework for integrated assessment modelling of management benefits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Mikael Skou; Kronvang, Brian; Carstensen, Jacob

Monetization of environmental benefits has become relevant as an element of proportionality tests required for justifications under the EU’s Water Framework Directive article 4 (relating to benefits andcosts of measures). This study extends an impact pathway approach to analysis of aquatic...... the study demonstrates how state-of-the-art environmental modelling can be linked with valuation to provide an adequate cross-media assessment framework relevant to integrated water quality management. The results must be regarded as illustrative and more research is required in several areas to consolidate...... relationships relating to exposures. The findings nevertheless suggest the significance of health effects for overall monetary benefits related to ecological quality objectives for water....

Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jørn

Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

Assessing the potentialities of integrated modelling during early phases of siting and design of a geological repository: the REGIME exercise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Genty, A.; Certes, C.; Serres, C.; Besnus, F. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire IRSN, 92 - Fontenay aux Roses (France); Fischer-Appelt, K.; Baltes, B.; Rohlig, J. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS), Koeln (Germany)

2003-01-01

This paper presents the safety assessment exercise 'REGIME' (Repository Evaluation performed by GRS and IRSN through a Modelling Exercise) performed jointly by GRS and IRSN. The main objective of the project is to test the ability of integrated modelling to contribute to site selection and repository conception in the context of high-level radioactive waste disposal. The project is divided in two parts. Phase 1 consisted in studying different flow patterns in a given geological context. The selected hydrogeological contexts and three site locations potentially favourable for hosting a repository are described. Phase 2, under progress, aims at evaluating the rote of limitation of releases played by the different components of the disposal system taking into account possible dysfunctions. The main issues to be addressed in phase 2, the modelling outline and the scenarios to be studied are presented. (authors)

Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

2015-01-01

Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot

Integration of facility modeling capabilities for nuclear nonproliferation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burr, Tom; Gorensek, M.B.; Krebs, John; Kress, Reid L.; Lamberti, Vincent; Schoenwald, David; Ward, Richard C.

2012-01-01

Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclearnonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facilitymodeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facilitymodeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facilitymodelingcapabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferationanalysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facilitymodeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facilitymodelingcapabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

An integrated chronic disease management model: a diagonal approach to health system strengthening in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahomed, Ozayr Haroon; Asmall, Shaidah; Freeman, Melvyn

2014-11-01

The integrated chronic disease management model provides a systematic framework for creating a fundamental change in the orientation of the health system. This model adopts a diagonal approach to health system strengthening by establishing a service-linked base to training, supervision, and the opportunity to try out, assess, and implement integrated interventions.

Testing an integral conceptual model of frailty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gobbens, Robbert J; van Assen, Marcel A; Luijkx, Katrien G; Schols, Jos M

2012-09-01

This paper is a report of a study conducted to test three hypotheses derived from an integral conceptual model of frailty.   The integral model of frailty describes the pathway from life-course determinants to frailty to adverse outcomes. The model assumes that life-course determinants and the three domains of frailty (physical, psychological, social) affect adverse outcomes, the effect of disease(s) on adverse outcomes is mediated by frailty, and the effect of frailty on adverse outcomes depends on the life-course determinants. In June 2008 a questionnaire was sent to a sample of community-dwelling people, aged 75 years and older (n = 213). Life-course determinants and frailty were assessed using the Tilburg frailty indicator. Adverse outcomes were measured using the Groningen activity restriction scale, the WHOQOL-BREF and questions regarding healthcare utilization. The effect of seven self-reported chronic diseases was examined. Life-course determinants, chronic disease(s), and frailty together explain a moderate to large part of the variance of the seven continuous adverse outcomes (26-57%). All these predictors together explained a significant part of each of the five dichotomous adverse outcomes. The effect of chronic disease(s) on all 12 adverse outcomes was mediated at least partly by frailty. The effect of frailty domains on adverse outcomes did not depend on life-course determinants. Our finding that the adverse outcomes are differently and uniquely affected by the three domains of frailty (physical, psychological, social), and life-course determinants and disease(s), emphasizes the importance of an integral conceptual model of frailty. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Enabling model customization and integration

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Minho; Fishwick, Paul A.

2003-09-01

Until fairly recently, the idea of dynamic model content and presentation were treated synonymously. For example, if one was to take a data flow network, which captures the dynamics of a target system in terms of the flow of data through nodal operators, then one would often standardize on rectangles and arrows for the model display. The increasing web emphasis on XML, however, suggests that the network model can have its content specified in an XML language, and then the model can be represented in a number of ways depending on the chosen style. We have developed a formal method, based on styles, that permits a model to be specified in XML and presented in 1D (text), 2D, and 3D. This method allows for customization and personalization to exert their benefits beyond e-commerce, to the area of model structures used in computer simulation. This customization leads naturally to solving the bigger problem of model integration - the act of taking models of a scene and integrating them with that scene so that there is only one unified modeling interface. This work focuses mostly on customization, but we address the integration issue in the future work section.

Integrated modelling in materials and process technology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hattel, Jesper Henri

2008-01-01

Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea's potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Science.gov (United States)

Luizza, Matthew W.; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

2016-07-01

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state's vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska's first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040-2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

The development of integrated diabetes care in the Netherlands: a multiplayer self-assessment analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zonneveld, Nick; Vat, Lidewij E; Vlek, Hans; Minkman, Mirella M N

2017-03-21

Since recent years Dutch diabetes care has increasingly focused on improving the quality of care by introducing the concept of care groups (in Dutch: 'zorggroepen'), care pathways and improving cooperation with involved care professionals and patients. This study examined how participating actors in care groups assess the development of their diabetes services and the differences and similarities between different stakeholder groups. A self-evaluation study was performed within 36 diabetes care groups in the Netherlands. A web-based self-assessment instrument, based on the Development Model for Integrated Care (DMIC), was used to collect data among stakeholders of each care group. The DMIC defines nine clusters of integrated care and four phases of development. Statistical analysis was used to analyze the data. Respondents indicated that the diabetes care groups work together in well-organized multidisciplinary teams and there is clarity about one another's expertise, roles and tasks. The care groups can still develop on elements related to the management and monitoring of performance, quality of care and patient-centeredness. The results show differences (p < 0.01) between three stakeholders groups in how they assess their integrated care services; (1) core players, (2) managers/directors/coordinators and (3) players at a distance. Managers, directors and coordinators assessed more implemented integrated care activities than the other two stakeholder groups. This stakeholder group also placed their care groups in a further phase of development. Players at a distance assessed significantly less present elements and assessed their care group as less developed. The results show a significant difference between stakeholder groups in the assessment of diabetes care practices. This reflects that the professional disciplines and the roles of stakeholders influence the way they asses the development of their integrated care setting, or that certain stakeholder groups

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

Science.gov (United States)

Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-07-15

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

The Assessment of Patient Clinical Outcome: Advantages, Models, Features of an Ideal Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mou’ath Hourani

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: The assessment of patient clinical outcome focuses on measuring various aspects of the health status of a patient who is under healthcare intervention. Patient clinical outcome assessment is a very significant process in the clinical field as it allows health care professionals to better understand the effectiveness of their health care programs and thus for enhancing the health care quality in general. It is thus vital that a high quality, informative review of current issues regarding the assessment of patient clinical outcome should be conducted. Aims & Objectives: 1 Summarizes the advantages of the assessment of patient clinical outcome; 2 reviews some of the existing patient clinical outcome assessment models namely: Simulation, Markov, Bayesian belief networks, Bayesian statistics and Conventional statistics, and Kaplan-Meier analysis models; and 3 demonstrates the desired features that should be fulfilled by a well-established ideal patient clinical outcome assessment model. Material & Methods: An integrative review of the literature has been performed using the Google Scholar to explore the field of patient clinical outcome assessment. Conclusion: This paper will directly support researchers, clinicians and health care professionals in their understanding of developments in the domain of the assessment of patient clinical outcome, thus enabling them to propose ideal assessment models.

The Assessment of Patient Clinical Outcome: Advantages, Models, Features of an Ideal Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mou’ath Hourani

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: The assessment of patient clinical outcome focuses on measuring various aspects of the health status of a patient who is under healthcare intervention. Patient clinical outcome assessment is a very significant process in the clinical field as it allows health care professionals to better understand the effectiveness of their health care programs and thus for enhancing the health care quality in general. It is thus vital that a high quality, informative review of current issues regarding the assessment of patient clinical outcome should be conducted. Aims & Objectives: 1 Summarizes the advantages of the assessment of patient clinical outcome; 2 reviews some of the existing patient clinical outcome assessment models namely: Simulation, Markov, Bayesian belief networks, Bayesian statistics and Conventional statistics, and Kaplan-Meier analysis models; and 3 demonstrates the desired features that should be fulfilled by a well-established ideal patient clinical outcome assessment model. Material & Methods: An integrative review of the literature has been performed using the Google Scholar to explore the field of patient clinical outcome assessment. Conclusion: This paper will directly support researchers, clinicians and health care professionals in their understanding of developments in the domain of the assessment of patient clinical outcome, thus enabling them to propose ideal assessment models.

ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: A NEW MODEL

OpenAIRE

Diah Hari Suryaningrum

2012-01-01

This paper aims to propose a new model in assessing individual performance on information technology adoption. The new model to assess individual performance was derived from two different theories: decomposed theory of planned behavior and task-technology fit theory. Although many researchers have tried to expand these theories, some of their efforts might lack of theoretical assumptions. To overcome this problem and enhance the coherence of the integration, I used a theory from social scien...

An integrated development environment for PMESII model authoring, integration, validation, and debugging

Science.gov (United States)

Pioch, Nicholas J.; Lofdahl, Corey; Sao Pedro, Michael; Krikeles, Basil; Morley, Liam

2007-04-01

To foster shared battlespace awareness in Air Operations Centers supporting the Joint Forces Commander and Joint Force Air Component Commander, BAE Systems is developing a Commander's Model Integration and Simulation Toolkit (CMIST), an Integrated Development Environment (IDE) for model authoring, integration, validation, and debugging. CMIST is built on the versatile Eclipse framework, a widely used open development platform comprised of extensible frameworks that enable development of tools for building, deploying, and managing software. CMIST provides two distinct layers: 1) a Commander's IDE for supporting staff to author models spanning the Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information (PMESII) taxonomy; integrate multiple native (third-party) models; validate model interfaces and outputs; and debug the integrated models via intuitive controls and time series visualization, and 2) a PMESII IDE for modeling and simulation developers to rapidly incorporate new native simulation tools and models to make them available for use in the Commander's IDE. The PMESII IDE provides shared ontologies and repositories for world state, modeling concepts, and native tool characterization. CMIST includes extensible libraries for 1) reusable data transforms for semantic alignment of native data with the shared ontology, and 2) interaction patterns to synchronize multiple native simulations with disparate modeling paradigms, such as continuous-time system dynamics, agent-based discrete event simulation, and aggregate solution methods such as Monte Carlo sampling over dynamic Bayesian networks. This paper describes the CMIST system architecture, our technical approach to addressing these semantic alignment and synchronization problems, and initial results from integrating Political-Military-Economic models of post-war Iraq spanning multiple modeling paradigms.

Open source integrated modeling environment Delta Shell

Science.gov (United States)

Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Jagers, B.; van Putten, H.

2012-04-01

In the last decade, integrated modelling has become a very popular topic in environmental modelling since it helps solving problems, which is difficult to model using a single model. However, managing complexity of integrated models and minimizing time required for their setup remains a challenging task. The integrated modelling environment Delta Shell simplifies this task. The software components of Delta Shell are easy to reuse separately from each other as well as a part of integrated environment that can run in a command-line or a graphical user interface mode. The most components of the Delta Shell are developed using C# programming language and include libraries used to define, save and visualize various scientific data structures as well as coupled model configurations. Here we present two examples showing how Delta Shell simplifies process of setting up integrated models from the end user and developer perspectives. The first example shows coupling of a rainfall-runoff, a river flow and a run-time control models. The second example shows how coastal morphological database integrates with the coastal morphological model (XBeach) and a custom nourishment designer. Delta Shell is also available as open-source software released under LGPL license and accessible via http://oss.deltares.nl.

An integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment method and its application to a petroleum-contaminated site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, L.; Fuller, G.A.; Huang, G.H.

1999-01-01

Contamination of soil and water and the resulting threat to public health and the environment are the frequent results of oil spills, leaks and other releases of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and other petroleum products. Integrating an analytical groundwater solute transport model within its general framework, this paper proposes an integrated stochastic risk assessment method and ways to apply it to petroleum-contaminated sites. Both the analytical solute transport model and the general risk assessment framework are solved by the Monte Carlo simulation technique for approaching the theoretical output distribution. Results of this study show that the total cancer risk has approximately log-normal distribution, irrespective of the fact that a variety of distributions were used to define the related parameters. It is claimed that the method can improve the effectiveness of the risk assessment for subsurface, and provide useful result for site remediation decisions. 23 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs

FRAPCON-3: Integral assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lanning, D.D.; Berna, G.A.; Berna, G.A.

1997-12-01

An integral assessment has been performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to quantify the predictive capabilities of FRAPCON-3, a steady-state fuel behavior code designed to analyze fuel behavior from beginning-of-life to burnup levels of 65 GWd/MTU. FRAPCON-3 code calculations are shown to compare satisfactorily to a pre-selected set of experimental data with steady-state operating conditions. 30 refs., 27 figs., 18 tabs.

Fire safety assessment for the fire areas of the nuclear power plant using fire model CFAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kim, Jong Hoon

2005-03-01

Now the deterministic analysis results for the cable integrity is not given in case of performing the fire PSA. So it is necessary to develop the assessment methodology for the fire growth and propagation. This document is intended to analyze the peak temperature of the upper gas layer using the fire modeling code, CFAST, to evaluate the integrity of the cable located on the dominant pump rooms, and to assess the CCDP(Conditional Core Damage Probability) using the results of the cable integrity. According to the analysis results, the cable integrity of the pump rooms is maintained and CCDP is reduced about two times than the old one. Accordingly, the fire safety assessment for the dominant fire areas using the fire modeling code will capable to reduce the uncertainty and to develop a more realistic model

The Evolution of Integrated Assessment and Emerging Challenges in the Assessment of Human and Natural System Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, L.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment (IA) modeling and research has a long history, spanning over 30 years since its inception and addressing a wide range of contemporary issues along the way. Over the last decade, IA modeling and research has emerged as one of the primary analytical methods for understanding the complex interactions between human and natural systems, from the interactions between energy, water, and land/food systems to the interplay between health, climate, and air pollution. IA modeling and research is particularly well-suited for the analysis of these interactions because it is a discipline that strives to integrate representations of multiple systems into consistent computational platforms or frameworks. In doing so, it explicitly confronts the many tradeoffs that are frequently necessary to manage complexity and computational cost while still representing the most important interactions and overall, coupled system behavior. This talk explores the history of IA modeling and research as a means to better understand its role in the assessment of contemporary issues at the confluence of human and natural systems. It traces the evolution of IA modeling and research from initial exploration of long-term emissions pathways, to the role of technology in the global evolution of the energy system, to the key linkages between land and energy systems and, more recently, the linkages with water, air pollution, and other key systems and issues. It discusses the advances in modeling that have emerged over this evolution and the biggest challenges that still present themselves as we strive to better understand the most important interactions between human and natural systems and the implications of these interactions for human welfare and decision making.

Site descriptive modelling - strategy for integrated evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Johan

2003-02-01

The current document establishes the strategy to be used for achieving sufficient integration between disciplines in producing Site Descriptive Models during the Site Investigation stage. The Site Descriptive Model should be a multidisciplinary interpretation of geology, rock mechanics, thermal properties, hydrogeology, hydrogeochemistry, transport properties and ecosystems using site investigation data from deep bore holes and from the surface as input. The modelling comprise the following iterative steps, evaluation of primary data, descriptive and quantitative modelling (in 3D), overall confidence evaluation. Data are first evaluated within each discipline and then the evaluations are checked between the disciplines. Three-dimensional modelling (i.e. estimating the distribution of parameter values in space and its uncertainty) is made in a sequence, where the geometrical framework is taken from the geological model and in turn used by the rock mechanics, thermal and hydrogeological modelling etc. The three-dimensional description should present the parameters with their spatial variability over a relevant and specified scale, with the uncertainty included in this description. Different alternative descriptions may be required. After the individual discipline modelling and uncertainty assessment a phase of overall confidence evaluation follows. Relevant parts of the different modelling teams assess the suggested uncertainties and evaluate the feedback. These discussions should assess overall confidence by, checking that all relevant data are used, checking that information in past model versions is considered, checking that the different kinds of uncertainty are addressed, checking if suggested alternatives make sense and if there is potential for additional alternatives, and by discussing, if appropriate, how additional measurements (i.e. more data) would affect confidence. The findings as well as the modelling results are to be documented in a Site Description

Developing an integrated 3D-hydrodynamic and emerging contaminant model for assessing water quality in a Yangtze Estuary Reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Cong; Zhang, Jingjie; Bi, Xiaowei; Xu, Zheng; He, Yiliang; Gin, Karina Yew-Hoong

2017-12-01

An integrated 3D-hydrodynamic and emerging contaminant model was developed for better understanding of the fate and transport of emerging contaminants in Qingcaosha Reservoir. The reservoir, which supplies drinking water for nearly half of Shanghai's population, is located in Yangtze Delta. The integrated model was built by Delft3D suite, a fully integrated multidimensional modeling software. Atrazine and Bisphenol A (BPA) were selected as two representative emerging contaminants for the study in this reservoir. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated against observations from 2011 to 2015 while the integrated model was calibrated against observations from 2014 to 2015 and then applied to explore the potential risk of high atrazine concentrations in the reservoir driven by agriculture activities. Our results show that the model is capable of describing the spatial and temporal patterns of water temperature, salinity and the dynamic distributions of two representative emerging contaminants (i.e. atrazine and BPA) in the reservoir. The physical and biodegradation processes in this study were found to play a crucial role in determining the fate and transport of atrazine and BPA in the reservoir. The model also provides an insight into the potential risk of emerging contaminants and possible mitigation thresholds. The integrated approach can be a very useful tool to support policy-makers in the future management of Qingcaosha Reservoir. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

2016-01-01

Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable

Integrated performance assessment model for waste policy package behavior and radionuclide release

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kossik, R.; Miller, I.; Cunnane, M.

1992-01-01

Golder Associates Inc. (GAI) has developed a probabilistic total system performance assessment and strategy evaluation model (RIP) which can be applied in an iterative manner to evaluate repository site suitability and guide site characterization. This paper describes one component of the RIP software, the waste package behavior and radionuclide release model. The waste package component model considers waste package failure by various modes, matrix alteration/dissolution, and radionuclide mass transfer. Model parameters can be described as functions of local environmental conditions. The waste package component model is coupled to component models for far-field radionuclide transport and disruptive events. The model has recently been applied to the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain

Assessment of capability for modeling the core degradation in 2D geometry with ASTEC V2 integral code for VVER type of reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dimov, D.

2011-01-01

The ASTEC code is progressively becoming the reference European severe accident integral code through in particular the intensification of research activities carried out since 2004. The purpose of this analysis is to assess ASTEC code modelling of main phenomena arising during hypothetical severe accidents and particularly in-vessel degradation in 2D geometry. The investigation covers both early and late phase of degradation of reactor core as well as determination of corium which will enter the reactor cavity. The initial event is station back-out. In order to receive severe accident condition, failure of all active component of emergency core cooling system is apply. The analysis is focus on ICARE module of ASTEC code and particularly on so call MAGMA model. The aim of study is to determine the capability of the integral code to simulate core degradation and to determine the corium composition entering the reactor cavity. (author)

Development and Application of a Probabilistic Risk-Benefit Assessment Model for Infant Feeding Integrating Microbiological, Nutritional, and Chemical Components.

Science.gov (United States)

Boué, Géraldine; Cummins, Enda; Guillou, Sandrine; Antignac, Jean-Philippe; Le Bizec, Bruno; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2017-12-01

A probabilistic and interdisciplinary risk-benefit assessment (RBA) model integrating microbiological, nutritional, and chemical components was developed for infant milk, with the objective of predicting the health impact of different scenarios of consumption. Infant feeding is a particular concern of interest in RBA as breast milk and powder infant formula have both been associated with risks and benefits related to chemicals, bacteria, and nutrients, hence the model considers these three facets. Cronobacter sakazakii, dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were three risk/benefit factors selected as key issues in microbiology, chemistry, and nutrition, respectively. The present model was probabilistic with variability and uncertainty separated using a second-order Monte Carlo simulation process. In this study, advantages and limitations of undertaking probabilistic and interdisciplinary RBA are discussed. In particular, the probabilistic technique was found to be powerful in dealing with missing data and to translate assumptions into quantitative inputs while taking uncertainty into account. In addition, separation of variability and uncertainty strengthened the interpretation of the model outputs by enabling better consideration and distinction of natural heterogeneity from lack of knowledge. Interdisciplinary RBA is necessary to give more structured conclusions and avoid contradictory messages to policymakers and also to consumers, leading to more decisive food recommendations. This assessment provides a conceptual development of the RBA methodology and is a robust basis on which to build upon. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrated Cost-Benefit Assessment of Customer-Driven Distributed Generatio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Čedomir Zeljković

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Distributed generation (DG has the potential to bring respectable benefits to electricity customers, distribution utilities and community in general. Among the customer benefits, the most important are the electricity bill reduction, reliability improvement, use of recovered heat, and qualifying for financial incentives. In this paper, an integrated cost-benefit methodology for assessment of customer-driven DG is presented. Target customers are the industrial and commercial end-users that are critically dependent on electricity supply, due to high consumption, high power peak demand or high electricity supply reliability requirements. Stochastic inputs are represented by the appropriate probability models and then the Monte Carlo simulation is employed for each investment alternative. The obtained probability distributions for the prospective profit are used to assess the risk, compare the alternatives and make decisions.

Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth System and Integrated Assessment Modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hibbard, K.; Janetos, A.; Vuuren, van D.; Pongratz, J.; Rose, S.; Betts, R.; Herold, M.; Feddema, J.

2010-01-01

This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

Science.gov (United States)

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

1999-05-01

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Integrated Debugging of Modelica Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrian Pop

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The high abstraction level of equation-based object-oriented (EOO languages such as Modelica has the drawback that programming and modeling errors are often hard to find. In this paper we present integrated static and dynamic debugging methods for Modelica models and a debugger prototype that addresses several of those problems. The goal is an integrated debugging framework that combines classical debugging techniques with special techniques for equation-based languages partly based on graph visualization and interaction. To our knowledge, this is the first Modelica debugger that supports both equation-based transformational and algorithmic code debugging in an integrated fashion.

Hierarchical Agent-Based Integrated Modelling Approach for Microgrids with Adoption of EVs and HRES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Han

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The large adoption of electric vehicles (EVs, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs, and the increasing of the loads shall bring significant challenges to the microgrid. The methodology to model microgrid with high EVs and HRESs penetrations is the key to EVs adoption assessment and optimized HRESs deployment. However, considering the complex interactions of the microgrid containing massive EVs and HRESs, any previous single modelling approaches are insufficient. Therefore in this paper, the methodology named Hierarchical Agent-based Integrated Modelling Approach (HAIMA is proposed. With the effective integration of the agent-based modelling with other advanced modelling approaches, the proposed approach theoretically contributes to a new microgrid model hierarchically constituted by microgrid management layer, component layer, and event layer. Then the HAIMA further links the key parameters and interconnects them to achieve the interactions of the whole model. Furthermore, HAIMA practically contributes to a comprehensive microgrid operation system, through which the assessment of the proposed model and the impact of the EVs adoption are achieved. Simulations show that the proposed HAIMA methodology will be beneficial for the microgrid study and EV’s operation assessment and shall be further utilized for the energy management, electricity consumption prediction, the EV scheduling control, and HRES deployment optimization.

MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

Petroleum system modeling capabilities for use in oil and gas resource assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Higley, Debra K.; Lewan, Michael; Roberts, Laura N.R.; Henry, Mitchell E.

2006-01-01

Summary: Petroleum resource assessments are among the most highly visible and frequently cited scientific products of the U.S. Geological Survey. The assessments integrate diverse and extensive information on the geologic, geochemical, and petroleum production histories of provinces and regions of the United States and the World. Petroleum systems modeling incorporates these geoscience data in ways that strengthen the assessment process and results are presented visually and numerically. The purpose of this report is to outline the requirements, advantages, and limitations of one-dimensional (1-D), two-dimensional (2-D), and three-dimensional (3-D) petroleum systems modeling that can be applied to the assessment of oil and gas resources. Primary focus is on the application of the Integrated Exploration Systems (IES) PetroMod? software because of familiarity with that program as well as the emphasis by the USGS Energy Program on standardizing to one modeling application. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) is used to demonstrate the use of the PetroMod? software. Petroleum systems modeling quantitatively extends the 'total petroleum systems' (TPS) concept (Magoon and Dow, 1994; Magoon and Schmoker, 2000) that is employed in USGS resource assessments. Modeling allows integration of state-of-the-art analysis techniques, and provides the means to test and refine understanding of oil and gas generation, migration, and accumulation. Results of modeling are presented visually, numerically, and statistically, which enhances interpretation of the processes that affect TPSs through time. Modeling also provides a framework for the input and processing of many kinds of data essential in resource assessment, including (1) petroleum system elements such as reservoir, seal, and source rock intervals; (2) timing of depositional, hiatus, and erosional events and their influences on petroleum systems; (3) incorporation of vertical and lateral distribution and lithologies of

Application of Model Project Based Learning on Integrated Science in Water Pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Yamin, Y.; Permanasari, A.; Redjeki, S.; Sopandi, W.

2017-09-01

The function of this research was to analyze the influence model Project Based Learning (PjBl) on integrated science about the concept mastery for junior high school students. Method used for this research constitutes the quasi of experiment method. Population and sample for this research are the students junior high school in Bandung as many as two classes to be experiment and control class. The instrument that used for this research is the test concept mastery, assessment questionnaire of product and the questionnaire responses of the student about learning integrated science. Based on the result of this research get some data that with accomplishment the model of PjBl. Learning authority of integrated science can increase the concept mastery for junior high school students. The highest increase in the theme of pollution water is in the concept of mixtures and the separation method. The students give a positive response in learning of integrated science for the theme of pollution of the water used model PjBL with questionnaire of the opinion aspect in amount of 83.5%, the anxiety of the students in amount of 95.5%, the profit learning model of PjBL in amount of 96.25% and profit learning of integrated science in amount of 95.75%.

MODEL AUTHENTIC SELF-ASSESSMENT DALAM PENGEMBANGAN EMPLOYABILITY SKILLS MAHASISWA PENDIDIKAN TINGGI VOKASI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I Made Suarta

2015-06-01

______________________________________________________________ AUTHENTIC SELF-ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR DEVELOPING EMPLOYABILITY SKILLS STUDENT IN HIGHER VOCATIONAL EDUCATION Abstract The purpose of this research is to develop assessment tools to evaluate achievement of employability skills which are integrated in the learning database applications. The assessment model developed is a combination of self-assessment and authentic assessment, proposed as models of authentic self-assessment. The steps of developing authentic self-assessment models include: identifying the standards, selecting an authentic task, identifying the criteria for the task, and creating the rubric. The results of development assessment tools include: (1 problem solving skills assessment model, (2 self-management skills assessment model, and (3 competence database applications assessment model. This model can be used to assess the cognitive, affective, and psychomotor achievement. The results indicate: achievement of problem solving and self-management ability was in good category, and competencies in designing conceptual and logical database was in high category. This model also has met the basic principles of assessment, i.e.: validity, reliability, focused on competencies, comprehen-sive, objectivity, and the principle of educating. Keywords: authentic assessment, self-assessment, problem solving skills, self-management skills, vocational education

Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

2012-01-01

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ha Duong, M.

1998-04-01

How to account for irreversibility in integrated assessment of climate change? This Ph. D. thesis in Economics balances discounting, technical progress and the inertia of existing capital stock against uncertainty and the inertia of socio-economic systems to examine the issue of near term limitations of greenhouse gases emissions. After a general overview in chapter 2, and a more historical presentation of the debates in chapter 3, chapter 4 proceeds to review a large number of integrated assessment models. Chapter 5 introduces a Model on the Dynamics of Inertia and Adaptability of energy systems: DIAM, used to discuss how much previous studies might have overestimated the long term costs of CO 2 limitations and underestimated adjustment costs. It shows that, given a target date for atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilisation, a higher inertia implies a lower optimal concentration trajectory. In a sequential decision framework, chapter 6 shows that current uncertainties about which CO 2 concentration ceiling would not present dangerous interference with the climate system justifies precautionary action. Finally, chapter 7 uses the irreversibility effect theory to define formally situations of decision under controversy and compare the irreversibility of CO 2 accumulation with the irreversibility of investments needed to moderate it. An option value for greenhouse gases emissions limitations is computed. (author)

Thermodynamic performance assessment of an integrated geothermal powered supercritical regenerative organic Rankine cycle and parabolic trough solar collectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cakici, Duygu Melek; Erdogan, Anil; Colpan, Can Ozgur

2017-01-01

In this study, the thermodynamic performance of an integrated geothermal powered supercritical regenerative organic Rankine cycle (ORC) and parabolic trough solar collectors (PTSC) is assessed. A thermal model based on the principles of thermodynamics (mass, energy, and exergy balances) and heat transfer is first developed for the components of this integrated system. This model gives the performance assessment parameters of the system such as the electrical and exergetic efficiencies, total exergy destruction and loss, productivity lack, fuel depletion ratio, and improvement potential rate. To validate this model, the data of an existing geothermal power plant based on a supercritical ORC and literature data for the PTSC are used. After validation, parametric studies are conducted to assess the effect of some of the important design and operating parameters on the performance of the system. As a result of these studies, it is found that the integration of ORC and PTSC systems increases the net power output but decreases the electrical and exergetic efficiencies of the integrated system. It is also shown that R134a is the most suitable working fluid type for this system; and the PTSCs and air cooled condenser are the main sources of the exergy destructions. - Highlights: • A geothermal power plant integrated with PTSC is investigated. • Different approaches for defining the exergetic efficiency are used. • The PTSCs and ACC are the main sources of the exergy destructions. • R134a gives the highest performance for any number of collectors studied.

Assessment of vulnerability in karst aquifers using a quantitative integrated numerical model: catchment characterization and high resolution monitoring - Application to semi-arid regions- Lebanon.

Science.gov (United States)

Doummar, Joanna; Aoun, Michel; Andari, Fouad

2016-04-01

Karst aquifers are highly heterogeneous and characterized by a duality of recharge (concentrated; fast versus diffuse; slow) and a duality of flow which directly influences groundwater flow and spring responses. Given this heterogeneity in flow and infiltration, karst aquifers do not always obey standard hydraulic laws. Therefore the assessment of their vulnerability reveals to be challenging. Studies have shown that vulnerability of aquifers is highly governed by recharge to groundwater. On the other hand specific parameters appear to play a major role in the spatial and temporal distribution of infiltration on a karst system, thus greatly influencing the discharge rates observed at a karst spring, and consequently the vulnerability of a spring. This heterogeneity can only be depicted using an integrated numerical model to quantify recharge spatially and assess the spatial and temporal vulnerability of a catchment for contamination. In the framework of a three-year PEER NSF/USAID funded project, the vulnerability of a karst catchment in Lebanon is assessed quantitatively using a numerical approach. The aim of the project is also to refine actual evapotranspiration rates and spatial recharge distribution in a semi arid environment. For this purpose, a monitoring network was installed since July 2014 on two different pilot karst catchment (drained by Qachqouch Spring and Assal Spring) to collect high resolution data to be used in an integrated catchment numerical model with MIKE SHE, DHI including climate, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone. Catchment characterization essential for the model included geological mapping and karst features (e.g., dolines) survey as they contribute to fast flow. Tracer experiments were performed under different flow conditions (snow melt and low flow) to delineate the catchment area, reveal groundwater velocities and response to snowmelt events. An assessment of spring response after precipitation events allowed the estimation of the

A toolkit for integrated deterministic and probabilistic assessment for hydrogen infrastructure.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Groth, Katrina M.; Tchouvelev, Andrei V.

2014-03-01

There has been increasing interest in using Quantitative Risk Assessment [QRA] to help improve the safety of hydrogen infrastructure and applications. Hydrogen infrastructure for transportation (e.g. fueling fuel cell vehicles) or stationary (e.g. back-up power) applications is a relatively new area for application of QRA vs. traditional industrial production and use, and as a result there are few tools designed to enable QRA for this emerging sector. There are few existing QRA tools containing models that have been developed and validated for use in small-scale hydrogen applications. However, in the past several years, there has been significant progress in developing and validating deterministic physical and engineering models for hydrogen dispersion, ignition, and flame behavior. In parallel, there has been progress in developing defensible probabilistic models for the occurrence of events such as hydrogen release and ignition. While models and data are available, using this information is difficult due to a lack of readily available tools for integrating deterministic and probabilistic components into a single analysis framework. This paper discusses the first steps in building an integrated toolkit for performing QRA on hydrogen transportation technologies and suggests directions for extending the toolkit.

Practice and progress in integrated assessments of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, F.L.

1995-01-01

This paper is intended to provide an overview of the state of the art integrated socioeconomic-biophysical assessments of climate change as presented at the IIASA workshop in October 1993. The paper seeks to tally the major improvements facilitated by integrated assessments in understanding the global warming problem and the crucial unresolved problems they currently face. The basic conclusion is that, as a result of a healthy diversity in practice, integrated assessments show significant progress in structuring the economic issues of climate change and providing the first broad insights into policy options. But, as some of the simple and traditional cases seem to be solved, more complex and difficult contingencies come to the fore. This suggests a long way to go to develop skills that will be required to address the numerous open issues. (author)

A Prospective Validation Study of a Rainbow Model of Integrated Care Measurement Tool in Singapore.

Science.gov (United States)

Nurjono, Milawaty; Valentijn, Pim P; Bautista, Mary Ann C; Wei, Lim Yee; Vrijhoef, Hubertus Johannes Maria

2016-04-08

The conceptual ambiguity of the integrated care concept precludes a full understanding of what constitutes a well-integrated health system, posing a significant challenge in measuring the level of integrated care. Most available measures have been developed from a disease-specific perspective and only measure certain aspects of integrated care. Based on the Rainbow Model of Integrated Care, which provides a detailed description of the complex concept of integrated care, a measurement tool has been developed to assess integrated care within a care system as a whole gathered from healthcare providers' and managerial perspectives. This paper describes the methodology of a study seeking to validate the Rainbow Model of Integrated Care measurement tool within and across the Singapore Regional Health System. The Singapore Regional Health System is a recent national strategy developed to provide a better-integrated health system to deliver seamless and person-focused care to patients through a network of providers within a specified geographical region. The validation process includes the assessment of the content of the measure and its psychometric properties. If the measure is deemed to be valid, the study will provide the first opportunity to measure integrated care within Singapore Regional Health System with the results allowing insights in making recommendations for improving the Regional Health System and supporting international comparison.

Methods for assessing the sustainability of integrated municipal waste management and energy supply systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luoranen, M.

2009-07-01

The general striving to bring down the number of municipal landfills and to increase the reuse and recycling of waste-derived materials across the EU supports the debates concerning the feasibility and rationality of waste management systems. Substantial decrease in the volume and mass of landfill-disposed waste flows can be achieved by directing suitable waste fractions to energy recovery. Global fossil energy supplies are becoming more and more valuable and expensive energy sources for the mankind, and efforts to save fossil fuels have been made. Waste-derived fuels offer one potential partial solution to two different problems. First, waste that cannot be feasibly re-used or recycled is utilized in the energy conversion process according to EU's Waste Hierarchy. Second, fossil fuels can be saved for other purposes than energy, mainly as transport fuels. This thesis presents the principles of assessing the most sustainable system solution for an integrated municipal waste management and energy system. The assessment process includes: Formation of a SISMan (Simple Integrated System Management) model of an integrated system including mass, energy and financial flows, and formation of a MEFLO (Mass, Energy, Financial, Legislational, Other decisionsupport data) decision matrix according to the selected decision criteria, including essential and optional decision criteria. The methods are described and theoretical examples of the utilization of the methods are presented in the thesis. The assessment process involves the selection of different system alternatives (process alternatives for treatment of different waste fractions) and comparison between the alternatives. The first of the two novelty values of the utilization of the presented methods is the perspective selected for the formation of the SISMan model. Normally waste management and energy systems are operated separately according to the targets and principles set for each system. In the thesis the waste

Towards an interpretive measurement framework to assess the levels of integrated and integrative thinking within organisations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Schörger

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This research study is located within the context of corporate reporting and is relevant for the agenda of sustainability and sustainable development. The specific context for this study is the South African mining industry, within which three units in the form of three companies, were chosen to provide a coherent case for this study. The sample for the analysis is based on the integrated reports of these companies for the years 2012 and 2013. This gives this research a total sample size of six reports. Based on the research findings an initial interpretive measurement framework to assess the levels of capital integration has been theorised which enables the various stakeholders of an organisation to assess the integrated and integrative thinking capabilities. The level of integration is represented as a maturity scale on which integrated thinking is associated with the lower levels, while integrative thinking is attributed to higher levels of maturity. In the elaborated framework, integrated thinking is perceived as being a prerequisite for integrative thinking. The practical implication of this study is that it provides a potential measurement framework for various organisational stakeholders, including investors, to assess the thinking capabilities that are more likely to lead to long term financial stability and sustainability. The value of this research study is that it provides an initial step towards measuring the level of integrated and integrative thinking capabilities within organisations where no such measurement framework currently exists. The limitations and implications of this research study are that the interpretive measurement framework represents merely an initial step and an ongoing working hypothesis which requires further research to develop its maturity and usefulness.

Evaluating Integrative Cancer Clinics With the Claim Assessment Profile: An Example With the InspireHealth Clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilton, Lara; Elfenbaum, Pamela; Jain, Shamini; Sprengel, Meredith; Jonas, Wayne B

2018-03-01

The evaluation of freestanding integrative cancer clinical programs is challenging and is rarely done. We have developed an approach called the Claim Assessment Profile (CAP) to identify whether evaluation of a practice is justified, feasible, and likely to provide useful information. A CAP was performed in order to (1) clarify the healing claims at InspireHealth, an integrative oncology treatment program, by defining the most important impacts on its clients; (2) gather information about current research capacity at the clinic; and (3) create a program theory and path model for use in prospective research. This case study design incorporates methods from a variety of rapid assessment approaches. Procedures included site visits to observe the program, structured qualitative interviews with 26 providers and staff, surveys to capture descriptive data about the program, and observational data on program implementation. The InspireHealth program is a well-established, multi-site, thriving integrative oncology clinical practice that focuses on patient support, motivation, and health behavior engagement. It delivers patient-centered care via a standardized treatment protocol. There arehigh levels of research interest from staff and resources by which to conduct research. This analysis provides the primary descriptive and claims clarification of an integrative oncology treatment program, an evaluation readiness report, a detailed logic model explicating program theory, and a clinical outcomes path model for conducting prospective research. Prospective evaluation of this program would be feasible and valuable, adding to our knowledge base of integrative cancer therapies.

An integrated model of clinical reasoning: dual-process theory of cognition and metacognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Marcum, James A

2012-10-01

Clinical reasoning is an important component for providing quality medical care. The aim of the present paper is to develop a model of clinical reasoning that integrates both the non-analytic and analytic processes of cognition, along with metacognition. The dual-process theory of cognition (system 1 non-analytic and system 2 analytic processes) and the metacognition theory are used to develop an integrated model of clinical reasoning. In the proposed model, clinical reasoning begins with system 1 processes in which the clinician assesses a patient's presenting symptoms, as well as other clinical evidence, to arrive at a differential diagnosis. Additional clinical evidence, if necessary, is acquired and analysed utilizing system 2 processes to assess the differential diagnosis, until a clinical decision is made diagnosing the patient's illness and then how best to proceed therapeutically. Importantly, the outcome of these processes feeds back, in terms of metacognition's monitoring function, either to reinforce or to alter cognitive processes, which, in turn, enhances synergistically the clinician's ability to reason quickly and accurately in future consultations. The proposed integrated model has distinct advantages over other models proposed in the literature for explicating clinical reasoning. Moreover, it has important implications for addressing the paradoxical relationship between experience and expertise, as well as for designing a curriculum to teach clinical reasoning skills. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Data report for the integrity assessment report HNF-4589

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MCSHANE, D.S.

1999-10-27

The purpose of this document is to compile supporting documentation for the Integrity Assessment Report (HNF 4589) for Tanks 101 and 102 in the 2194 Facility. This approach minimizes the size of the Integrity Assessment Report (IAR) (HNF-4589) and still provide a path to detailed information. This IAR addresses the evaluation of Tanks 101 and 102 and other existing components located in the 219-5 Waste Handling Facility.

"Could I return to my life?" Integrated Narrative Nursing Model in Education (INNE).

Science.gov (United States)

Artioli, Giovanna; Foà, Chiara; Cosentino, Chiara; Sulla, Francesco; Sollami, Alfonso; Taffurelli, Chiara

2018-03-28

The Integrated Narrative Nursing Model (INNM) is an approach that integrates the qualitative methodology typical of the human sciences, with the quantitative methodology more often associated with the natural sciences. This complex model, which combines a focus on narrative with quantitative measures, has recently been effectively applied to the assessment of chronic patients. In this study, the model is applied to the planning phase of education (Integrated Narrative Nursing Education, INNE), and proves to be a valid instrument for the promotion of the current educational paradigm that is centered on the engagement of both the patient and the caregiver in their own path of care. The aim of this study is therefore to describe the nurse's strategy in the planning of an educational intervention by using the INNE model. The case of a 70-year-old woman with pulmonary neoplasm is described at her first admission to Hospice. Each step conducted by the reference nurse, who uses INNE to record the nurse-patient narrative and collect subsequent questionnaires in order to create a shared educational plan, is also described. The information collected was submitted, starting from a grounded methodology to the following four levels of analysis: I. Needs Assessment, II. Narrative Diagnosis, III. Quantitative Outcome, IV. Integrated Outcome. Step IV, which is derived from the integration of all levels of analysis, allows a nurse to define, even graphically, the conceptual map of a patient's needs, resources and perspectives, in a completely tailored manner. The INNE model offers a valid methodological support for the professional who intends to educate the patient through an inter-subjective and engaged pathway, between the professional, their patient and the socio-relational context. It is a matter of adopting a complex vision that combines processes and methods that require a steady scientific basis and advanced methodological expertise with active listening and empathy

iTOUGH2-IFC: An Integrated Flow Code in Support of Nagra's Probabilistic Safety Assessment: User's Guide and Model Description

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finsterle, Stefan A.

2009-01-01

This document describes the development and use of the Integrated Flow Code (IFC), a numerical code and related model to be used for the simulation of time-dependent, two-phase flow in the near field and geosphere of a gas-generating nuclear waste repository system located in an initially fully water-saturated claystone (Opalinus Clay) in Switzerland. The development of the code and model was supported by the Swiss National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste (Nagra), Wettingen, Switzerland. Gas generation (mainly H 2 , but also CH 4 and CO 2 ) may affect repository performance by (1) compromising the engineered barriers through excessive pressure build-up, (2) displacing potentially contaminated pore water, (3) releasing radioactive gases (e.g., those containing 14 C and 3 H), (4) changing hydrogeologic properties of the engineered barrier system and the host rock, and (5) altering the groundwater flow field and thus radionuclide migration paths. The IFC aims at providing water and gas flow fields as the basis for the subsequent radionuclide transport simulations, which are performed by the radionuclide transport code (RTC). The IFC, RTC and a waste-dissolution and near-field transport model (STMAN) are part of the Integrated Radionuclide Release Code (IRRC), which integrates all safety-relevant features, events, and processes (FEPs). The IRRC is embedded into a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) computational tool that (1) evaluates alternative conceptual models, scenarios, and disruptive events, and (2) performs Monte-Carlo sampling to account for parametric uncertainties. The preliminary probabilistic safety assessment concept and the role of the IFC are visualized in Figure 1. The IFC was developed based on Nagra's PSA concept. Specifically, as many phenomena as possible are to be directly simulated using a (simplified) process model, which is at the core of the IRRC model. Uncertainty evaluation (scenario uncertainty, conceptualization

An Integrated Environmental Assessment of the US Mid-Atlantic Region

Science.gov (United States)

James D. Wickham; K.B. Jones; Kurt H. Riitters; R.V. O' Neill; R.D. Tankersley; E.R. Smith; A.C. Neale; D.J. Chaloud

1999-01-01

Many of today's environmental problems are in scope and their effects overlap and interact. We developed a simple method to provide an integrated assessment of environmental conditions and estimate cumulative impacts across a large region, by combining data on land-cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography. The integrated assessment...

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Science.gov (United States)

Luizza, Matthew; Evangelista, Paul; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; West, Amanda; Stewart, Heather

2016-01-01

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and whitefish (Coregonus nelsonii) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). Environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanc, Isabelle; Gschwind, Benoit; Lefevre, Mireille

2013-01-01

With the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models,..). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios. (orig.)

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We

Chapter 4: Overview of the vegetation management treatment economic analysis module in the integrated landscape assessment project

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2014-01-01

Forest land provides various ecosystem services, including timber, biomass, and carbon sequestration. Estimating trends in these ecosystem services is essential for assessing potential outcomes of landscape management scenarios. However, the state-and transition models used in the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project for simulating landscape changes over time do not...

241-AY Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

JENSEN, C.E.

1999-09-21

This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-AY double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations. are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks.

241-AN Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

JENSEN, C.E.

1999-01-01

This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-AN double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

241-AY Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

JENSEN, C.E.

1999-01-01

This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-AY double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

241-SY Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

JENSEN, C.E.

1999-01-01

This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-SY double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 West Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

241-AZ Double-Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

JENSEN, C.E.

1999-01-01

This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-A2 double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

241-AW Double Shell Tanks (DST) Integrity Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

JENSEN, C.E.

1999-01-01

This report presents the results of the integrity assessment of the 241-AW double-shell tank farm facility located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Site. The assessment included the design evaluation and integrity examinations of the tanks and concluded that the facility is adequately designed, is compatible with the waste, and is fit for use. Recommendations including subsequent examinations, are made to ensure the continued safe operation of the tanks

A new assessment model and tool for pediatric nurse practitioners.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, C

1992-01-01

This article presents a comprehensive assessment model for pediatric nurse practitioner (PNP) practice that integrates familiar elements of the classical medical history, Gordon's Functional Health Patterns, and developmental fields into one system. This model drives the diagnostic reasoning process toward consideration of a broad range of disease, daily living (nursing diagnosis), and developmental diagnoses, which represents PNP practice better than the medical model does.

Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.

2015-01-01

. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming...... climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables...

Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří

2015-01-01

In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text

Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří [Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno (Czech Republic)

2015-03-10

In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text.

Model documentation of assessment and nursing diagnosis in the practice of nursing care management for nursing students

OpenAIRE

A. Aziz Alimul Hidayat; M. Kes

2015-01-01

Model documentation of assessment and nursing diagnosis in the practice of nursing care management is an integration model in nursing care records, especially records nursing assessment and diagnosis in one format. This model can reduce the duration of the recording in nursing care, and make it easier for students to understand the nursing diagnosis, so that nursing interventions more effective. The purpose of this paper was to describes the form integration documentation of nursing assessmen...

Integrated Monitoring System for Durability Assessment of Concrete Bridges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristian-Claudiu Comisu

2005-01-01

Full Text Available An ageing and deteriorating bridge stock presents the bridge owners with the growing challenge of maintaining the structures at a satisfactory level of safety, performance and aesthetic appearance within the allocated budgets. This task calls for optimized bridge management based on efficient methods of selecting technical and economical optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategies. One of the crucial points in the assessment of the current condition and future development and performance. Selecting the optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategy within the actual budget is a key point in bridge management for which an accurate assessment of performance and deterioration rate is necessary. For this assessment, the use of integrated monitoring system has several advantages compared to the traditional approach of scattered visual inspections combined with occasional on site testing with portable equipment and laboratory testing of collected samples. For this reason, attention is more focusing on the development of permanent integrated monitoring system for durability assessment of concrete bridges. It is estimated that with the implementation of such integrated monitoring systems, it should be possible to reduce the operating costs of inspections and maintenance by 25% and the operator of the structures will be able to take protective actions before damaging processes start. This paper indentifies the main bridge owner requirements to integrated monitoring systems and outlines how monitoring systems may be used for performance and deterioration rate assessment to establish a better basis for selecting the optimal maintenance and rehabilitation strategy.

Applying an international CAPM to herding behaviour model for integrated stock markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Najmudin Najmudin

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Development of financial globalization in the form of stock market integration experiences a trend which is getting stronger. The analysis models in the field of finance and investments should be able to adjust to these developments. This adjustment includes the models used to detect the existence of herding behavior. All this time, the herding behavior model of individual stocks towards market consensus has been referring to CAPM theory. The basic assumption of CAPM is that financial assets at a domestic stock market are segmented from the financial assets’ movement at the global market. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an alternative view in the form of an international herding model that should be applied in the context of an integrated stock market. The model was created with reference to the international CAPM. This paper combined ICAPM method and international CSAD model to identify herding for eight stock markets, the sample period being from January 2003 to December 2016. The result found that for segmented stock markets, represented by China and the Philippines, herding happened for both overall the sample period and the market crisis period. In addition, for the integrated stock markets, represented by Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the UK, herding behavior was only found during the market crisis period. Therefore, classification of market integrations should be considered in assessing the herding behaviour at stock markets.

The IntFOLD server: an integrated web resource for protein fold recognition, 3D model quality assessment, intrinsic disorder prediction, domain prediction and ligand binding site prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Roche, Daniel B; Buenavista, Maria T; Tetchner, Stuart J; McGuffin, Liam J

2011-07-01

The IntFOLD server is a novel independent server that integrates several cutting edge methods for the prediction of structure and function from sequence. Our guiding principles behind the server development were as follows: (i) to provide a simple unified resource that makes our prediction software accessible to all and (ii) to produce integrated output for predictions that can be easily interpreted. The output for predictions is presented as a simple table that summarizes all results graphically via plots and annotated 3D models. The raw machine readable data files for each set of predictions are also provided for developers, which comply with the Critical Assessment of Methods for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) data standards. The server comprises an integrated suite of five novel methods: nFOLD4, for tertiary structure prediction; ModFOLD 3.0, for model quality assessment; DISOclust 2.0, for disorder prediction; DomFOLD 2.0 for domain prediction; and FunFOLD 1.0, for ligand binding site prediction. Predictions from the IntFOLD server were found to be competitive in several categories in the recent CASP9 experiment. The IntFOLD server is available at the following web site: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/IntFOLD/.

Some aspects of fracture assessment diagrams, plastic zone size corrections and contour integrals in post-yield fracture mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ainsworth, R.A.

1981-03-01

The CEGB failure assessment route is briefly described and is shown to be consistent with a plastic zone size correction method. Modifications to the assessment route which have recently been suggested for describing the effects of thermal and residual stresses are examined. It is shown that the plastic zone size correction method may be used to include local thermal and residual stresses in the assessment route in a simple manner. The assessment route is compared with finite-element solutions for a thermal stress problem and with strip-yield model solutions for a residual stress problem. In using finite-element solutions there are different contour integral methods available for calculating a post-yield fracture parameter. The J-integral of Rice and the J*-integral of Blackburn are examined and compared and the appropriate parameter is identified. (author)

Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Xin

fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy...... field. We also discuss the merit and limitation of our model....

Model integration and the economics of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundgren, S.

1985-01-01

The author proposes and applies a specific approach to model integration, i.e. the merger of two or several independently developed models. The approach is intended for integrations of activity analysis sector models and applied general equilibrium models. Model integration makes it possible to extend the range of applicability of applied general equilibrium models by exploiting the information contained in sector models. It also makes it possible to evaluate the validity of the partial equilibrium analyses in which sector models often are employed. The proposed approach is used to integrate a sector model of electricity and heat production with a general equilibrium model of the Swedish economy. Both models have been constructed within the research programme. The author uses the integrated model to look at two issues concerning the role of nuclear power on the Swedish electricity market: What are the likely consequences of a nuclear power discontinuation and how does the nuclear power investment programme of the 1970's and the early 1980's compare with a socially efficient one. (Author)

Integrated Assessment of Prevention and Restoration Actions to Combat Desertification

Science.gov (United States)

Bautista, S.; Orr, B. J.; Vallejo, R.

2009-12-01

Recent advances in desertification and land degradation research have provided valuable conceptual and analytical frameworks, degradation indicators, assessment tools and surveillance systems with respect to desertification drivers, processes, and impacts. These findings, together with stakeholders’ perceptions and local/regional knowledge, have helped to define and propose measures and strategies to combat land degradation. However, integrated and comprehensive assessment and evaluation of prevention and restoration strategies and techniques to combat desertification is still lacking, and knowledge on the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of the proposed strategies over a wide range of environmental and socio-economic conditions is very scarce. To address this challenge, we have launched a multinational project (PRACTICE - Prevention and Restoration Actions to Combat Desertification. An Integrated Assessment), funded by the European Commission, in order to link S & T advances and traditional knowledge on prevention and restoration practices to combat desertification with sound implementation, learning and adaptive management, knowledge sharing, and dissemination of best practices. The key activities for pursuing this goal are (1) to establish a platform and information system of long-term monitoring sites for assessing sustainable management and actions to combat desertification, (2) to define an integrated protocol for the assessment of these actions, and (3) to link project assessment and evaluation with training and education, adaptive management, and knowledge sharing and dissemination through a participatory approach involving scientists, managers, technicians, financial officers, and members of the public who are/were impacted by the desertification control projects. Monitoring sites are distributed in the Mediterranean Europe (Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal), Africa (Morocco, Namibia, South Africa), Middle East (Israel), China, and South and North

Air source integrated heat pump simulation model for EnergyPlus

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, Bo; New, Joshua; Baxter, Van

2017-12-01

An Air Source Integrated Heat Pump (AS-IHP) is an air source, multi-functional spacing conditioning unit with water heating function (WH), which can lead to great energy savings by recovering the condensing waste heat for domestic water heating. This paper summarizes development of the EnergyPlus AS-IHP model, introducing the physics, sub-models, working modes, and control logic. Based on the model, building energy simulations were conducted to demonstrate greater than 50% annual energy savings, in comparison to a baseline heat pump with electric water heater, over 10 US cities, using the EnergyPlus quick-service restaurant template building. We assessed water heating energy saving potentials using AS-IHP versus both gas and electric baseline systems, and pointed out climate zones where AS-IHPs are promising. In addition, a grid integration strategy was investigated to reveal further energy saving and electricity cost reduction potentials, via increasing the water heating set point temperature during off-peak hours and using larger water tanks.

Towards Integrated Health Technology Assessment for Improving Decision Making in Selected Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Oortwijn, Wija; Determann, Domino; Schiffers, Krijn; Tan, Siok Swan; van der Tuin, Jeroen

2017-09-01

To assess the level of comprehensiveness of health technology assessment (HTA) practices around the globe and to formulate recommendations for enhancing legitimacy and fairness of related decision-making processes. To identify best practices, we developed an evaluation framework consisting of 13 criteria on the basis of the INTEGRATE-HTA model (integrative perspective on assessing health technologies) and the Accountability for Reasonableness framework (deliberative appraisal process). We examined different HTA systems in middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Thailand) and high-income countries (Australia, Canada, England, France, Germany, Scotland, and South Korea). For this purpose, desk research and structured interviews with relevant key stakeholders (N = 32) in the selected countries were conducted. HTA systems in Canada, England, and Scotland appear relatively well aligned with our framework, followed by Australia, Germany, and France. Argentina and South Korea are at an early stage, whereas Brazil and Thailand are at an intermediate level. Both desk research and interviews revealed that scoping is often not part of the HTA process. In contrast, providing evidence reports for assessment is well established. Indirect and unintended outcomes are increasingly considered, but there is room for improvement. Monitoring and evaluation of the HTA process is not well established across countries. Finally, adopting transparent and robust processes, including stakeholder consultation, takes time. This study presents a framework for assessing the level of comprehensiveness of the HTA process in a country. On the basis of applying the framework, we formulate recommendations on how the HTA community can move toward a more integrated decision-making process using HTA. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modern model of integrated corporate communication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milica Slijepčević

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present the modern model of integrated corporate communication. Beside this, the authors will describe the changes occurring in the corporate environment and importance of changing the model of corporate communication. This paper also discusses the importance of implementation of the suggested model, the use of new media and effects of these changes on corporations. The approach used in this paper is the literature review. The authors explore the importance of implementation of the suggested model and the new media in corporate communication, both internal and external, addressing all the stakeholders and communication contents. The paper recommends implementation of a modern model of integrated corporate communication as a response to constant development of the new media and generation changes taking place. Practical implications: the modern model of integrated corporate communication can be used as an upgrade of the conventional communication models. This modern model empowers companies to sustain and build up the existing relationships with stakeholders, and to find out and create new relationships with stakeholders who were previously inaccessible and invisible.

Analyzing Unsaturated Flow Patterns in Fractured Rock Using an Integrated Modeling Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Y.S. Wu; G. Lu; K. Zhang; L. Pan; G.S. Bodvarsson

2006-01-01

Characterizing percolation patterns in unsaturated fractured rock has posed a greater challenge to modeling investigations than comparable saturated zone studies, because of the heterogeneous nature of unsaturated media and the great number of variables impacting unsaturated flow. This paper presents an integrated modeling methodology for quantitatively characterizing percolation patterns in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a proposed underground repository site for storing high-level radioactive waste. The modeling approach integrates a wide variety of moisture, pneumatic, thermal, and isotopic geochemical field data into a comprehensive three-dimensional numerical model for modeling analyses. It takes into account the coupled processes of fluid and heat flow and chemical isotopic transport in Yucca Mountain's highly heterogeneous, unsaturated fractured tuffs. Modeling results are examined against different types of field-measured data and then used to evaluate different hydrogeological conceptualizations and their results of flow patterns in the unsaturated zone. In particular, this model provides a much clearer understanding of percolation patterns and flow behavior through the unsaturated zone, both crucial issues in assessing repository performance. The integrated approach for quantifying Yucca Mountain's flow system is demonstrated to provide a practical modeling tool for characterizing flow and transport processes in complex subsurface systems

Integration of design applications with building models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eastman, C. M.; Jeng, T. S.; Chowdbury, R.

1997-01-01

This paper reviews various issues in the integration of applications with a building model... (Truncated.)......This paper reviews various issues in the integration of applications with a building model... (Truncated.)...

Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nesterenko Oksana O.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in

Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Klima, K.

2013-12-01

Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.