WorldWideScience

Sample records for injuries hidden epidemic

  1. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  2. Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities and social pressures ... It frames risk in the context of the dynamics governing sexuality, underlined ... MSM risk and practice, in these contexts, are consequently shaped by ...

  3. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  4. Does the declining lethality of gunshot injuries mask a rising epidemic of gun violence in the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jena, Anupam B; Sun, Eric C; Prasad, Vinay

    2014-07-01

    Recent mass shootings in the U.S. have reignited the important public health debate concerning measures to decrease the epidemic of gun violence. Editorialists and gun lobbyists have criticized the recent focus on gun violence, arguing that gun-related homicide rates have been stable in the last decade. While true, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also demonstrate that although gun-related homicide rates were stable between 2002 and 2011, rates of violent gunshot injuries increased. These seemingly paradoxical trends may reflect the declining lethality of gunshot injuries brought about by surgical advances in the care of the patient with penetrating trauma. Focusing on gun-related homicide rates as a summary statistic of gun violence, rather than total violent gunshot injuries, can therefore misrepresent the rising epidemic of gun violence in the U.S.

  5. People ageing with spinal cord injury in New Zealand: a hidden population? The need for a spinal cord injury registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smaill, Richard; Schluter, Philip J; Barnett, Pauline; Keeling, Sally

    2016-07-15

    To identify and establish a research database of ageing New Zealand people who sustained a traumatic or non-traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) before 1990. All living New Zealand residents incurring a SCI before 1 January 1990 were eligible. A co-ordinated consultation with apposite New Zealand organisations was undertaken to identify and access existing SCI databases, and remove duplicate or ineligible records. 1,400 people were identified. Using the national patient information management system to determine eligibility, 1,174 people remained after exclusions; 600 (51.1%) through the Auckland Spinal Rehabilitation Unit and 574 (48.9%) through the Burwood Spinal Unit. Common to both databases were people's National Health Index number, contact details, basic demographic data, date of injury, and neurological level of SCI. An unexpectedly large SCI population was uncovered; a population largely hidden due to the uncoordinated, fragmented and inconsistently collected information held within different organisations. As life expectancy rapidly increases for those with SCI, coupled with an accelerated ageing general population, this hidden SCI population can be expected to grow. A single, well-managed and coordinated national SCI registry is urgently needed in New Zealand for planning and delivery of services, especially for those developing age-related complex interwoven secondary conditions.

  6. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  7. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity has become a worldwide epidemic, and its prevalence has been projected to grow by 40% in the next decade. This increasing prevalence has implications for the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and also for Chronic Kidney Disease. A high body mass index is one of the strongest risk factors for new-onset ...

  8. A hidden HIV epidemic among women in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tran Hien

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The HIV epidemic in Vietnam is still concentrated among high risk populations, including IDU and FSW. The response of the government has focused on the recognized high risk populations, mainly young male drug users. This concentration on one high risk population may leave other populations under-protected or unprepared for the risk and the consequences of HIV infection. In particular, attention to women's risks of exposure and needs for care may not receive sufficient attention as long as the perception persists that the epidemic is predominantly among young males. Without more knowledge of the epidemic among women, policy makers and planners cannot ensure that programs will also serve women's needs. Methods More than 300 documents appearing in the period 1990 to 2005 were gathered and reviewed to build an understanding of HIV infection and related risk behaviors among women and of the changes over time that may suggest needed policy changes. Results It appears that the risk of HIV transmission among women in Vietnam has been underestimated; the reported data may represent as little as 16% of the real number. Although modeling predicted that there would be 98,500 cases of HIV-infected women in 2005, only 15,633 were accounted for in reports from the health system. That could mean that in 2005, up to 83,000 women infected with HIV have not been detected by the health care system, for a number of possible reasons. For both detection and prevention, these women can be divided into sub-groups with different risk characteristics. They can be infected by sharing needles and syringes with IDU partners, or by having unsafe sex with clients, husbands or lovers. However, most new infections among women can be traced to sexual relations with young male injecting drug users engaged in extramarital sex. Each of these groups may need different interventions to increase the detection rate and thus ensure that the women receive the care they

  9. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  10. Neoliberal science, Chinese style: Making and managing the 'obesity epidemic'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhalgh, Susan

    2016-08-01

    Science and Technology Studies has seen a growing interest in the commercialization of science. In this article, I track the role of corporations in the construction of the obesity epidemic, deemed one of the major public health threats of the century. Focusing on China, a rising superpower in the midst of rampant, state-directed neoliberalization, I unravel the process, mechanisms, and broad effects of the corporate invention of an obesity epidemic. Largely hidden from view, Western firms were central actors at every stage in the creation, definition, and governmental management of obesity as a Chinese disease. Two industry-funded global health entities and the exploitation of personal ties enabled actors to nudge the development of obesity science and policy along lines beneficial to large firms, while obscuring the nudging. From Big Pharma to Big Food and Big Soda, transnational companies have been profiting from the 'epidemic of Chinese obesity', while doing little to effectively treat or prevent it. The China case suggests how obesity might have been constituted an 'epidemic threat' in other parts of the world and underscores the need for global frameworks to guide the study of neoliberal science and policymaking.

  11. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  12. Hidden Liquidity

    OpenAIRE

    Cebiroglu, Gökhan; Horst, Ulrich

    2012-01-01

    We cross-sectionally analyze the presence of aggregated hidden depth and trade volume in the S&P 500 and identify its key determinants. We find that the spread is the main predictor for a stock’s hidden dimension, both in terms of traded and posted liquidity. Our findings moreover suggest that large hidden orders are associated with larger transaction costs, higher price impact and increased volatility. In particular, as large hidden orders fail to attract (latent) liquidity to the market, hi...

  13. Hidden loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kieffer-Kristensen, Rikke; Johansen, Karen Lise Gaardsvig

    2013-01-01

    to participate. RESULTS: All children were affected by their parents' ABI and the altered family situation. The children's expressions led the authors to identify six themes, including fear of losing the parent, distress and estrangement, chores and responsibilities, hidden loss, coping and support. The main......PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to listen to and learn from children showing high levels of post-traumatic stress symptoms after parental acquired brain injury (ABI), in order to achieve an in-depth understanding of the difficulties the children face in their everyday lives...... finding indicates that the children experienced numerous losses, many of which were often suppressed or neglected by the children to protect the ill parents. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicated that the children seemed to make a special effort to hide their feelings of loss and grief in order to protect...

  14. Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okano, Justin T; Robbins, Danielle; Palk, Laurence; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels; Blower, Sally

    2016-07-01

    Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996 and 2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has identified as a priority for elimination. We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the hidden epidemic (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study: the Danish HIV Cohort Study. Incidence, and the hidden epidemic, decreased substantially after treatment was introduced in 1996. By 2013, incidence was close to the elimination threshold: 1·4 (median, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 0·4-2·1) new HIV infections per 1000 MSM and there were only 617 (264-858) undiagnosed MSM. Decreasing incidence and increasing treatment coverage were highly correlated; a treatment threshold effect was apparent. Our study is the first to show that TasP can substantially reduce a country's HIV epidemic, and bring it close to elimination. However, we have shown the effectiveness of TasP under optimal conditions: very high treatment coverage, and exceptionally high (98%) viral suppression rate. Unless these extremely challenging conditions can be met in sub-Saharan Africa, the WHO's global elimination strategy is unlikely to succeed. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Sociology of Hidden Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Moradi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the concept of hidden curriculum in the sociological theories and wants to explain sociological aspects of formation of hidden curriculum. The main question concentrates on the theoretical approaches in which hidden curriculum is explained sociologically.For this purpose it was applied qualitative research methodology. The relevant data include various sociological concepts and theories of hidden curriculum collected by the documentary method. The study showed a set of rules, procedures, relationships and social structure of education have decisive role in the formation of hidden curriculum. A hidden curriculum reinforces by existed inequalities among learners (based on their social classes or statues. There is, in fact, a balance between the learner's "knowledge receptions" with their "inequality proportion".The hidden curriculum studies from different major sociological theories such as Functionalism, Marxism and critical theory, Symbolic internationalism and Feminism. According to the functionalist perspective a hidden curriculum has a social function because it transmits social values. Marxists and critical thinkers correlate between hidden curriculum and the totality of social structure. They depicts that curriculum prepares learners for the exploitation in the work markets. Symbolic internationalism rejects absolute hegemony of hidden curriculum on education and looks to the socialization as a result of interaction between learner and instructor. Feminism theory also considers hidden curriculum as a vehicle which legitimates gender stereotypes.

  16. Hidden measurements, hidden variables and the volume representation of transition probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Oliynyk, Todd A.

    2005-01-01

    We construct, for any finite dimension $n$, a new hidden measurement model for quantum mechanics based on representing quantum transition probabilities by the volume of regions in projective Hilbert space. For $n=2$ our model is equivalent to the Aerts sphere model and serves as a generalization of it for dimensions $n \\geq 3$. We also show how to construct a hidden variables scheme based on hidden measurements and we discuss how joint distributions arise in our hidden variables scheme and th...

  17. HIV among gay and other men who have sex with men in Latin America and the Caribbean: a hidden epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cáceres, Carlos F

    2002-12-01

    To assess the epidemiological and social/cultural context of, and the social response to, the HIV epidemic among gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in Latin America and the Caribbean. A review of epidemiological surveillance reports to the Pan American Health Organization/UNAIDS; published studies on HIV prevalence/incidence among MSM in the region; social/cultural studies on homosexuality; documents analysing risk and vulnerability among MSM and publications documenting the social response to the MSM epidemic. The regional HIV epidemic is concentrated in MSM populations in most urban centres (HIV prevalence 5-20%). Incidence rates (1.5-3.3 in Brazil and Peru) are still moderately high, and call for continued programmatic action. Transmission from bisexual men to women is increasingly observed, demonstrating that the neglect of intervention will fuel co-existent epidemics. MSM in the region are culturally diverse, with mediation of social class, sex, and ethnicity. Around core gay subcultures, non-gay identified MSM interact with them and frequently exchange sex for goods. Examples are shown of sexual meanings affecting prevention messages focused on individual risk, as well as of the role of structural vulnerability on potential exposure to infection, calling for programmes beyond individual rational decision-making. The social response to the AIDS epidemic has, in most countries, included programmes oriented to MSM, usually from civil society organizations, and has strengthened gay organizing. Renewed, imaginative efforts are needed from governments and community organizations to strengthen culturally sensitive prevention work, and integrate it into community empowerment and the promotion of sexual rights.

  18. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  19. Well-Being Impacts of Human-Elephant Conflict in Khumaga, Botswana: Exploring Visible and Hidden Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison L Mayberry

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available High densities of wild African savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana combined with widespread human land-use have increased human-elephant conflict in northern Botswana. Visible impacts (e.g. crop/property damage, injury/fatality of elephants on human well-being are well documented in scholarly literature while hidden impacts (e.g. emotional stress, restricted mobility are less so. This research uses qualitative methods to explore human experiences with elephants and perceived impacts of elephants on human well-being. Findings reveal participants are concerned about food insecurity and associated visible impacts of elephant crop raids. Findings also reveal participants are concerned about reduced safety and restricted mobility as hidden impacts threatening livelihoods and everyday life. Both visible and hidden impacts of elephants contribute to people's negative feelings towards elephants, as does the broader political context. This research emphasises the importance of investigating both visible and hidden impacts of elephants on human well-being to foster holistic understanding of human-elephant conflict scenarios and to inform future mitigation strategies.

  20. Hidden gauge symmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Raifeartaigh, L.

    1979-01-01

    This review describes the principles of hidden gauge symmetry and of its application to the fundamental interactions. The emphasis is on the structure of the theory rather than on the technical details and, in order to emphasise the structure, gauge symmetry and hidden symmetry are first treated as independent phenomena before being combined into a single (hidden gauge symmetric) theory. The main application of the theory is to the weak and electromagnetic interactions of the elementary particles, and although models are used for comparison with experiment and for illustration, emphasis is placed on those features of the application which are model-independent. (author)

  1. Variational Infinite Hidden Conditional Random Fields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bousmalis, Konstantinos; Zafeiriou, Stefanos; Morency, Louis-Philippe; Pantic, Maja; Ghahramani, Zoubin

    2015-01-01

    Hidden conditional random fields (HCRFs) are discriminative latent variable models which have been shown to successfully learn the hidden structure of a given classification problem. An Infinite hidden conditional random field is a hidden conditional random field with a countably infinite number of

  2. Hidden charged dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Jonathan L.; Kaplinghat, Manoj; Tu, Huitzu; Yu, Hai-Bo

    2009-01-01

    Can dark matter be stabilized by charge conservation, just as the electron is in the standard model? We examine the possibility that dark matter is hidden, that is, neutral under all standard model gauge interactions, but charged under an exact (\\rm U)(1) gauge symmetry of the hidden sector. Such candidates are predicted in WIMPless models, supersymmetric models in which hidden dark matter has the desired thermal relic density for a wide range of masses. Hidden charged dark matter has many novel properties not shared by neutral dark matter: (1) bound state formation and Sommerfeld-enhanced annihilation after chemical freeze out may reduce its relic density, (2) similar effects greatly enhance dark matter annihilation in protohalos at redshifts of z ∼ 30, (3) Compton scattering off hidden photons delays kinetic decoupling, suppressing small scale structure, and (4) Rutherford scattering makes such dark matter self-interacting and collisional, potentially impacting properties of the Bullet Cluster and the observed morphology of galactic halos. We analyze all of these effects in a WIMPless model in which the hidden sector is a simplified version of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the dark matter is a hidden sector stau. We find that charged hidden dark matter is viable and consistent with the correct relic density for reasonable model parameters and dark matter masses in the range 1 GeV ∼ X ∼< 10 TeV. At the same time, in the preferred range of parameters, this model predicts cores in the dark matter halos of small galaxies and other halo properties that may be within the reach of future observations. These models therefore provide a viable and well-motivated framework for collisional dark matter with Sommerfeld enhancement, with novel implications for astrophysics and dark matter searches

  3. Localization of hidden Chua's attractors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonov, G.A.; Kuznetsov, N.V.; Vagaitsev, V.I.

    2011-01-01

    The classical attractors of Lorenz, Rossler, Chua, Chen, and other widely-known attractors are those excited from unstable equilibria. From computational point of view this allows one to use numerical method, in which after transient process a trajectory, started from a point of unstable manifold in the neighborhood of equilibrium, reaches an attractor and identifies it. However there are attractors of another type: hidden attractors, a basin of attraction of which does not contain neighborhoods of equilibria. In the present Letter for localization of hidden attractors of Chua's circuit it is suggested to use a special analytical-numerical algorithm. -- Highlights: → There are hidden attractors: basin doesn't contain neighborhoods of equilibria. → Hidden attractors cannot be reached by trajectory from neighborhoods of equilibria. → We suggested special procedure for localization of hidden attractors. → We discovered hidden attractor in Chua's system, L. Chua in his work didn't expect this.

  4. Hidden Liquidity: Determinants and Impact

    OpenAIRE

    Gökhan Cebiroglu; Ulrich Horst

    2012-01-01

    We cross-sectionally analyze the presence of aggregated hidden depth and trade volume in the S&P 500 and identify its key determinants. We find that the spread is the main predictor for a stock’s hidden dimension, both in terms of traded and posted liquidity. Our findings moreover suggest that large hidden orders are associated with larger transaction costs, higher price impact and increased volatility. In particular, as large hidden orders fail to attract (latent) liquidity to the market, ...

  5. Severe head injury in children - a preventable but forgotten epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Severe head injury in a child is a sociological disaster that crosses all sociological ... permanently disabled each year as a result of accidental injury." Over a ..... the daylight when transportation of the patient is more rapid; this results in some ...

  6. The Hierarchy of Control in the Epidemic of Farm Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosman, James; Hagel, Louise; King, Nathan; Koehncke, Niels; Kirychuk, Shelley; Trask, Catherine; Neudorf, Joshua; Day, Lesley; Voaklander, Donald; Pickett, William

    2015-01-01

    The application of the hierarchy of control (HOC) is a well-established approach to hazard reduction in industrial workplaces. However, it has not been generally applied in farm workplaces. The objective was to determine current practices of farmers in the context of a modified HOC, and the effect of these practices on farm injury outcomes. A self-reported mail survey of 1196 Saskatchewan farm operations was conducted in 2013. Selected survey questions were used as proxy measures of the farm owner-operator's practices relevant to each of the six steps of increasing importance in a modified HOC: (1) hazard identification; (2) risk assessment; (3) personal protection; (4) administrative controls; (5) engineering controls; and (6) elimination of the hazard. Analysis used basic descriptive statistics and logistic regression to examine associations of interest. When four of the six HOC steps were adhered to, there was a significant protective effect: odds ratio (OR) = 0.32 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.14-0.74) for any injury and OR = 0.27 (95% CI: 0.07-0.99) for serious injury in the overall study population. For farm owner-operators utilizing four of the six steps in the modified HOC, there was a significant protective effect for any injury (OR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.11-0.83). Although there is a considerable absence of use of elements of the HOC among farm operators, for farmers who adhere to these steps, there is a significant reduction in their risk for injury. Prevention strategies that embrace the practice of these principles may be effective in the control of farm workplace injury.

  7. Hidden Curriculum: An Analytical Definition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Andarvazh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The concept of hidden curriculum was first used by Philip Jackson in 1968, and Hafferty brought this concept to the medical education. Many of the subjects that medical students learn are attributed to this curriculum. So far several definitions have been presented for the hidden curriculum, which on the one hand made this concept richer, and on the other hand, led to confusion and ambiguity.This paper tries to provide a clear and comprehensive definition of it.Methods: In this study, concept analysis of McKenna method was used. Using keywords and searching in the databases, 561 English and 26 Persian references related to the concept was found, then by limitingthe research scope, 125 abstracts and by finding more relevant references, 55 articles were fully studied.Results: After analyzing the definitions by McKenna method, the hidden curriculum is defined as follows: The hidden curriculum is a hidden, powerful, intrinsic in organizational structure and culture and sometimes contradictory message, conveyed implicitly and tacitly in the learning environment by structural and human factors and its contents includes cultural habits and customs, norms, values, belief systems, attitudes, skills, desires and behavioral and social expectations can have a positive or negative effect, unplanned, neither planners nor teachers, nor learners are aware of it. The ultimate consequence of the hidden curriculum includes reproducing the existing class structure, socialization, and familiarizing learners for transmission and joining the professional world.Conclusion: Based on the concept analysis, we arrived at an analytical definition of the hidden curriculum that could be useful for further studies in this area.Keywords: CONCEPT ANALYSIS, HIDDEN CURRICULUM, MCKENNA’S METHOD

  8. Hidden particle production at the ILC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujii, Keisuke; Itoh, Hideo; Okada, Nobuchika; Hano, Hitoshi; Yoshioka, Tamaki

    2008-01-01

    In a class of new physics models, the new physics sector is completely or partly hidden, namely, a singlet under the standard model (SM) gauge group. Hidden fields included in such new physics models communicate with the standard model sector through higher-dimensional operators. If a cutoff lies in the TeV range, such hidden fields can be produced at future colliders. We consider a scalar field as an example of the hidden fields. Collider phenomenology on this hidden scalar is similar to that of the SM Higgs boson, but there are several features quite different from those of the Higgs boson. We investigate productions of the hidden scalar at the International Linear Collider (ILC) and study the feasibility of its measurements, in particular, how well the ILC distinguishes the scalar from the Higgs boson, through realistic Monte Carlo simulations.

  9. Probing hidden sector photons through the Higgs window

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, M.

    2008-07-01

    We investigate the possibility that a (light) hidden sector extra photon receives its mass via spontaneous symmetry breaking of a hidden sector Higgs boson, the so-called hidden-Higgs. The hidden-photon can mix with the ordinary photon via a gauge kinetic mixing term. The hidden-Higgs can couple to the Standard Model Higgs via a renormalizable quartic term - sometimes called the Higgs Portal. We discuss the implications of this light hidden-Higgs in the context of laser polarization and light-shining-through-the-wall experiments as well as cosmological, astrophysical, and non-Newtonian force measurements. For hidden-photons receiving their mass from a hidden-Higgs we find in the small mass regime significantly stronger bounds than the bounds on massive hidden sector photons alone. (orig.)

  10. Probing hidden sector photons through the Higgs window

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, Markus; Jaeckel, Joerg; Redondo, Javier; Ringwald, Andreas

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the possibility that a (light) hidden sector extra photon receives its mass via spontaneous symmetry breaking of a hidden sector Higgs boson, the so-called hidden-Higgs. The hidden-photon can mix with the ordinary photon via a gauge kinetic mixing term. The hidden-Higgs can couple to the standard model Higgs via a renormalizable quartic term - sometimes called the Higgs portal. We discuss the implications of this light hidden-Higgs in the context of laser polarization and light-shining-through-the-wall experiments as well as cosmological, astrophysical, and non-Newtonian force measurements. For hidden-photons receiving their mass from a hidden-Higgs, we find in the small mass regime significantly stronger bounds than the bounds on massive hidden sector photons alone.

  11. Insight: Exploring Hidden Roles in Collaborative Play

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tricia Shi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper looks into interaction modes between players in co-located, collaborative games. In particular, hidden traitor games, in which one or more players is secretly working against the group mission, has the effect of increasing paranoia and distrust between players, so this paper looks into the opposite of a hidden traitor – a hidden benefactor. Rather than sabotaging the group mission, the hidden benefactor would help the group achieve the end goal while still having a reason to stay hidden. The paper explores what games with such a role can look like and how the role changes player interactions. Finally, the paper addresses the divide between video game and board game interaction modes; hidden roles are not common within video games, but they are of growing prevalence in board games. This fact, combined with the exploration of hidden benefactors, reveals that hidden roles is a mechanic that video games should develop into in order to match board games’ complexity of player interaction modes.

  12. Hidden attractors in dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudkowski, Dawid; Jafari, Sajad; Kapitaniak, Tomasz; Kuznetsov, Nikolay V.; Leonov, Gennady A.; Prasad, Awadhesh

    2016-06-01

    Complex dynamical systems, ranging from the climate, ecosystems to financial markets and engineering applications typically have many coexisting attractors. This property of the system is called multistability. The final state, i.e., the attractor on which the multistable system evolves strongly depends on the initial conditions. Additionally, such systems are very sensitive towards noise and system parameters so a sudden shift to a contrasting regime may occur. To understand the dynamics of these systems one has to identify all possible attractors and their basins of attraction. Recently, it has been shown that multistability is connected with the occurrence of unpredictable attractors which have been called hidden attractors. The basins of attraction of the hidden attractors do not touch unstable fixed points (if exists) and are located far away from such points. Numerical localization of the hidden attractors is not straightforward since there are no transient processes leading to them from the neighborhoods of unstable fixed points and one has to use the special analytical-numerical procedures. From the viewpoint of applications, the identification of hidden attractors is the major issue. The knowledge about the emergence and properties of hidden attractors can increase the likelihood that the system will remain on the most desirable attractor and reduce the risk of the sudden jump to undesired behavior. We review the most representative examples of hidden attractors, discuss their theoretical properties and experimental observations. We also describe numerical methods which allow identification of the hidden attractors.

  13. Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...

  14. Hidden photons in connection to dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreas, Sarah; Ringwald, Andreas [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Goodsell, Mark D. [CPhT, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau (France)

    2013-06-15

    Light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so called hidden photons, which reside in a hidden sector have attracted much attention since they are a well motivated feature of many scenarios beyond the Standard Model and furthermore could mediate the interaction with hidden sector dark matter.We review limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from such experiments at KEK and Orsay. In addition, we study the possibility of having dark matter in the hidden sector. A simple toy model and different supersymmetric realisations are shown to provide viable dark matter candidates in the hidden sector that are in agreement with recent direct detection limits.

  15. Hidden photons in connection to dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreas, Sarah; Ringwald, Andreas; Goodsell, Mark D.

    2013-06-01

    Light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so called hidden photons, which reside in a hidden sector have attracted much attention since they are a well motivated feature of many scenarios beyond the Standard Model and furthermore could mediate the interaction with hidden sector dark matter.We review limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from such experiments at KEK and Orsay. In addition, we study the possibility of having dark matter in the hidden sector. A simple toy model and different supersymmetric realisations are shown to provide viable dark matter candidates in the hidden sector that are in agreement with recent direct detection limits.

  16. POVMs and hidden variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stairs, Allen

    2007-01-01

    Recent results by Paul Busch and Adan Cabello claim to show that by appealing to POVMs, non-contextual hidden variables can be ruled out in two dimensions. While the results of Busch and Cabello are mathematically correct, interpretive problems render them problematic as no hidden variable proofs

  17. Non-accidental injury in children in Kuala Lumpur: An urban perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faridah Mohd Nor

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Non-accidental deaths in children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia are not uncommon, and they are often reported for identification of injuries. Five case series in children are presented here with typical injuries of differing ages in child abuse. Where history was partially hidden from the real scenario, involvement of family members was inevitable. The injuries were particularly diversified from a single unprecedented injury to multiple severe injuries, which led to the deaths of children less than 3 years of age. The discussion revolved around the autopsy and ancillary investigations in the context of urban perspectives in Kuala Lumpur area.

  18. Virtual Reality for Traumatic Brain Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa R. Zanier

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this perspective, we discuss the potential of virtual reality (VR in the assessment and rehabilitation of traumatic brain injury, a silent epidemic of extremely high burden and no pharmacological therapy available. VR, endorsed by the mobile and gaming industries, is now available in more usable and cheaper tools allowing its therapeutic engagement both at the bedside and during the daily life at chronic stages after injury with terrific potential for a longitudinal disease modifying effect.

  19. Helioscope bounds on hidden sector photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redondo, J.

    2008-01-01

    The flux of hypothetical ''hidden photons'' from the Sun is computed under the assumption that they interact with normal matter only through kinetic mixing with the ordinary standard model photon. Requiring that the exotic luminosity is smaller than the standard photon luminosity provides limits for the mixing parameter down to χ -14 , depending on the hidden photon mass. Furthermore, it is pointed point out that helioscopes looking for solar axions are also sensitive to hidden photons. The recent results of the CAST collaboration are used to further constrain the mixing parameter χ at low masses (m γ' <1 eV) where the luminosity bound is weaker. In this regime the solar hidden photon ux has a sizable contribution of longitudinally polarized hidden photons of low energy which are invisible for current helioscopes. (orig.)

  20. Managing Hidden Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Marcus M.; Pedersen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    This chapter investigates the concept of the ‘hidden costs’ of offshoring, i.e. unexpected offshoring costs exceeding the initially expected costs. Due to the highly undefined nature of these costs, we position our analysis towards the strategic responses of firms’ realisation of hidden costs....... In this regard, we argue that a major response to the hidden costs of offshoring is the identification and utilisation of strategic mechanisms in the organisational design to eventually achieving system integration in a globally dispersed and disaggregated organisation. This is heavily moderated by a learning......-by-doing process, where hidden costs motivate firms and their employees to search for new and better knowledge on how to successfully manage the organisation. We illustrate this thesis based on the case of the LEGO Group....

  1. The Hidden Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Manning, Stephan; Pedersen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    of offshoring. Specifically, we propose that hidden costs can be explained by the combination of increasing structural, operational and social complexity of offshoring activities. In addition, we suggest that firm orientation towards organizational design as part of an offshoring strategy and offshoring......This study seeks to explain hidden costs of offshoring, i.e. unexpected costs resulting from the relocation of business tasks and activities outside the home country. We develop a model that highlights the role of complexity, design orientation and experience in explaining hidden costs...... experience moderate the relationship between complexity and hidden costs negatively i.e. reduces the cost generating impact of complexity. We develop three hypotheses and test them on comprehensive data from the Offshoring Research Network (ORN). In general, we find support for our hypotheses. A key result...

  2. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  3. Heely injuries: a new epidemic warranting a government health warning!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenehan, B; Callender, O; McIntyre, A; Boran, S; Moore, D; Fogarty, E; Dowling, F

    2007-08-01

    Heelys, the new craze gripping the nation, were first introduced to Ireland in 2005 having been available in the United States since 2000. Designed as "the only shoe with a removable wheel in the sole" and initially marketed among rollerbladers and skateboarders they have been adopted by children as contemporary footwear. From April to June 2006, all patients presenting to trauma orthopaedic services at our institutions with injuries sustained while wearing Heelys were included in this study. Thirty-nine patients are included in this study. The mean age was 9.1 years (range 7-13, median 9 years). Of the 39 patients referred to the orthopaedic service, 8 required admissions to hospital. One patient admitted following a head injury, required craniotomy and evacuation of an extradural haematoma. The significance of the injuries encountered demonstrates the potentially devastating results from the use of Heelys. The public perception of safety is incorrect and manufacturers rightly recommend strongly the use of safety gear.

  4. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  5. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  6. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  7. Hidden Risk Factors for Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... A.S.T. Quiz Hidden Stroke Risk Factors for Women Updated:Nov 22,2016 Excerpted from "What Women Need To Know About The Hidden Risk Factors ... 2012) This year, more than 100,000 U.S. women under 65 will have a stroke. Stroke is ...

  8. Hidden-Sector Dynamics and the Supersymmetric Seesaw

    CERN Document Server

    Campbell, Bruce A; Maybury, David W

    2008-01-01

    In light of recent analyses that have shown that nontrivial hidden-sector dynamics in models of supersymmetry breaking can lead to a significant impact on the predicted low-energy supersymmetric spectrum, we extend these studies to consider hidden-sector effects in extensions of the MSSM to include a seesaw model for neutrino masses. A dynamical hidden sector in an interval of mass scales below the seesaw scale would yield renormalization-group running involving both the anomalous dimension from the hidden sector and the seesaw-extended MSSM renormalization group equations (RGEs). These effects interfere in general, altering the generational mixing of the sleptons, and allowing for a substantial change to the expected level of charged-lepton flavour violation in seesaw-extended MSSM models. These results provide further support for recent theoretical observations that knowledge of the hidden sector is required in order to make concrete low-energy predictions, if the hidden sector is strongly coupled. In parti...

  9. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  10. Global Update and Trends of Hidden Hunger, 1995-2011: The Hidden Hunger Index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie C Ruel-Bergeron

    Full Text Available Deficiencies in essential vitamins and minerals-also termed hidden hunger-are pervasive and hold negative consequences for the cognitive and physical development of children.This analysis evaluates the change in hidden hunger over time in the form of one composite indicator-the Hidden Hunger Index (HHI-using an unweighted average of prevalence estimates from the Nutrition Impact Model Study for anemia due to iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency, and stunting (used as a proxy indicator for zinc deficiency. Net changes from 1995-2011 and population weighted regional means for various time periods are measured.Globally, hidden hunger improved (-6.7 net change in HHI from 1995-2011. Africa was the only region to see a deterioration in hidden hunger (+1.9 over the studied time period; East Asia and the Pacific performed exceptionally well (-13.0, while other regions improved only slightly. Improvements in HHI were mostly due to reductions in zinc and vitamin A deficiencies, while anemia due to iron deficiency persisted and even increased.This analysis is critical for informing and tracking the impact of policy and programmatic efforts to reduce micronutrient deficiencies, to advance the global nutrition agenda, and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. However, there remains an unmet need to invest in gathering frequent, nationally representative, high-quality micronutrient data as we renew our efforts to scale up nutrition, and as we enter the post-2015 development agenda.Preparation of this manuscript was funded by Sight and Life. There was no funding involved in the study design, data collection, analysis, or decision to publish.

  11. Hidden variables and locality in quantum theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiva, Vandana.

    1978-12-01

    The status of hidden variables in quantum theory has been debated since the 1920s. The author examines the no-hidden-variable theories of von Neumann, Kochen, Specker and Bell, and finds that they all share one basic assumption: averaging over the hidden variables should reproduce the quantum mechanical probabilities. Von Neumann also makes a linearity assumption, Kochen and Specker require the preservation of certain functional relations between magnitudes, and Bell proposes a locality condition. It has been assumed that the extrastatistical requirements are needed to serve as criteria of success for the introduction of hidden variables because the statistical condition is trivially satisfied, and that Bell's result is based on a locality condition that is physically motivated. The author shows that the requirement of weak locality, which is not physically motivated, is enough to give Bell's result. The proof of Bell's inequality works equally well for any pair of commuting magnitudes satisfying a condition called the degeneracy principle. None of the no-hidden-variable proofs apply to a class of hidden variable theories that are not phase-space reconstructions of quantum mechanics. The author discusses one of these theories, the Bohm-Bub theory, and finds that hidden variable theories that re all the quantum statistics, for single and sequential measurements, must introduce a randomization process for the hidden variables after each measurement. The philosophical significance of this theory lies in the role it can play in solving the conceptual puzzles posed by quantum theory

  12. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  14. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  15. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  16. … To be hidden does not mean to be merely revealed – Part 1 Artistic research on hidden curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette Krause

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This text revisits the long-term project Hidden Curriculum, initiated by Annette Krauss. The project addresses unquestioned routines, hierarchies of knowledge (part 1, and the role of the body in learning processes (part 2 from the perspective of secondary/high school education (in the research on a hidden curriculum. A deeper analysis of educational studies on the phenomenon of ‘hidden curriculum’ in relation to the feminist and critical pedagogies of bell hooks, Paulo Freire, and Jacques Rancière brings forward important insights generated through the artistic research within hidden curriculum. The aim of this text is to address academic canons, corporeality, and investigate everyday norms through revisiting the framework, results, and processes of the collaborative research into hidden curriculum with secondary high school students.

  17. Global Update and Trends of Hidden Hunger, 1995-2011: The Hidden Hunger Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Gretchen A.; Ezzati, Majid; Black, Robert E.; Kraemer, Klaus

    2015-01-01

    Background Deficiencies in essential vitamins and minerals–also termed hidden hunger–are pervasive and hold negative consequences for the cognitive and physical development of children. Methods This analysis evaluates the change in hidden hunger over time in the form of one composite indicator–the Hidden Hunger Index (HHI)–using an unweighted average of prevalence estimates from the Nutrition Impact Model Study for anemia due to iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency, and stunting (used as a proxy indicator for zinc deficiency). Net changes from 1995–2011 and population weighted regional means for various time periods are measured. Findings Globally, hidden hunger improved (-6.7 net change in HHI) from 1995–2011. Africa was the only region to see a deterioration in hidden hunger (+1.9) over the studied time period; East Asia and the Pacific performed exceptionally well (-13.0), while other regions improved only slightly. Improvements in HHI were mostly due to reductions in zinc and vitamin A deficiencies, while anemia due to iron deficiency persisted and even increased. Interpretation This analysis is critical for informing and tracking the impact of policy and programmatic efforts to reduce micronutrient deficiencies, to advance the global nutrition agenda, and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, there remains an unmet need to invest in gathering frequent, nationally representative, high-quality micronutrient data as we renew our efforts to scale up nutrition, and as we enter the post-2015 development agenda. Funding Preparation of this manuscript was funded by Sight and Life. There was no funding involved in the study design, data collection, analysis, or decision to publish. PMID:26673631

  18. Compressing the hidden variable space of a qubit

    OpenAIRE

    Montina, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    In previously exhibited hidden variable models of quantum state preparation and measurement, the number of continuous hidden variables describing the actual state of a single realization is never smaller than the quantum state manifold dimension. We introduce a simple model for a qubit whose hidden variable space is one-dimensional, i.e., smaller than the two-dimensional Bloch sphere. The hidden variable probability distributions associated with the quantum states satisfy reasonable criteria ...

  19. Search for Hidden Particles

    CERN Multimedia

    Solovev, V

    The SHiP Experiment is a new general-purpose fixed target facility at the SPS to search for hidden particles as predicted by a very large number of recently elaborated models of Hidden Sectors which are capable of accommodating dark matter, neutrino oscillations, and the origin of the full baryon asymmetry in the Universe. Specifically, the experiment is aimed at searching for very weakly interacting long lived particles including Heavy Neutral Leptons - right-handed partners of the active neutrinos; light supersymmetric particles - sgoldstinos, etc.; scalar, axion and vector portals to the hidden sector. The high intensity of the SPS and in particular the large production of charm mesons with the 400 GeV beam allow accessing a wide variety of light long-lived exotic particles of such models and of SUSY. Moreover, the facility is ideally suited to study the interactions of tau neutrinos.

  20. Higgs Portal into Hidden Sectors

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2007-01-01

    Several attractive theoretical ideas suggest the existence of one or more 'hidden sectors' consisting of standard model singlet fields, some of which may not be too heavy. There is a profound reason to think that the Higgs sector might provide the first access to these hidden sectors. This scenario could affect Higgs phenomenology in drastic ways.

  1. Hidden in plain sight: the formal, informal, and hidden curricula of a psychiatry clerkship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wear, Delese; Skillicorn, Jodie

    2009-04-01

    To examine perceptions of the formal, informal, and hidden curricula in psychiatry as they are observed and experienced by (1) attending physicians who have teaching responsibilities for residents and medical students, (2) residents who are taught by those same physicians and who have teaching responsibilities for medical students, and (3) medical students who are taught by attendings and residents during their psychiatry rotation. From June to November 2007, the authors conducted focus groups with attendings, residents, and students in one midwestern academic setting. The sessions were audiotaped, transcribed, and analyzed for themes surrounding the formal, informal, and hidden curricula. All three groups offered a similar belief that the knowledge, skills, and values of the formal curriculum focused on building relationships. Similarly, all three suggested that elements of the informal and hidden curricula were expressed primarily as the values arising from attendings' role modeling, as the nature and amount of time attendings spend with patients, and as attendings' advice arising from experience and intuition versus "textbook learning." Whereas students and residents offered negative values arising from the informal and hidden curricula, attendings did not, offering instead the more positive values they intended to encourage through the informal and hidden curricula. The process described here has great potential in local settings across all disciplines. Asking teachers and learners in any setting to think about how they experience the educational environment and what sense they make of all curricular efforts can provide a reality check for educators and a values check for learners as they critically reflect on the meanings of what they are learning.

  2. A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ye

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.

  3. Abelian hidden sectors at a GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrissey, David E.; Poland, David; Zurek, Kathryn M.

    2009-01-01

    We discuss mechanisms for naturally generating GeV-scale hidden sectors in the context of weak-scale supersymmetry. Such low mass scales can arise when hidden sectors are more weakly coupled to supersymmetry breaking than the visible sector, as happens when supersymmetry breaking is communicated to the visible sector by gauge interactions under which the hidden sector is uncharged, or if the hidden sector is sequestered from gravity-mediated supersymmetry breaking. We study these mechanisms in detail in the context of gauge and gaugino mediation, and present specific models of Abelian GeV-scale hidden sectors. In particular, we discuss kinetic mixing of a U(1) x gauge force with hypercharge, singlets or bi-fundamentals which couple to both sectors, and additional loop effects. Finally, we investigate the possible relevance of such sectors for dark matter phenomenology, as well as for low- and high-energy collider searches.

  4. Stargate of the Hidden Multiverse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Antonov

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Concept of Monoverse, which corresponds to the existing broad interpretation of the second postulate of the special theory of relativity, is not consistent with the modern astrophysical reality — existence of the dark matter and the dark energy, the total mass-energy of which is ten times greater than the mass-energy of the visible universe (which has been considered as the entire universe until very recent . This concept does not allow to explain their rather unusual properties — invisibility and lack of baryon content — which would seem to even destroy the very modern understanding of the term ‘matter’. However, all numerous alternative concepts of Multiverses, which have been proposed until today, are unable to explain these properties of the dark matter and dark energy. This article describes a new concept: the concept of the hidden Multiverse and hidden Supermultiverse, which mutual invisibility of parallel universes is explained by the physical reality of imaginary numbers. This concept completely explains the phenomenon of the dark matter and the dark energy. Moreover, it is shown that the dark matter and the dark energy are the experimental evidence for the existence of the hidden Multiverse. Described structure of the hidden Multiverse is fully consistent with the data obtained by the space stations WMAP and Planck. An extremely important property of the hidden Multiverse is an actual possibility of its permeation through stargate located on the Earth.

  5. Traumatic brain injury, the hidden pandemic: A focused response to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) has many potential cognitive, behavioural and psychological consequences, and contributes significantly to the national burden of disease and to ongoing violent behaviour. Few resources are available for the rehabilitation of patients with TBI in South Africa, and access to ...

  6. Injuries to children in the United States related to trampolines, 1990-1995: a national epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, G A

    1998-03-01

    To describe the epidemiology of trampoline-related injuries among children in the United States. A retrospective analysis of data for children 18 years old and younger from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System of the United States Consumer Product Safety Commission for 1990 through 1995. There were an estimated 249 400 trampoline-related injuries [95% confidence interval (CI), 166 300-332 500] to children 18 years old and younger treated in hospital emergency departments in the United States during the 6-year study period. The number of injuries increased by 98% from 29 600 in 1990 to 58 400 in 1995, with an average of 41 600 (95% CI, 27 700-55 500) injuries per year, or 59.4 injuries per 100 000 United States children per year (95% CI, 39.6-79.3). The median age of injured children was 10 years, and 50% were males. Ninety-three percent of injuries occurred at home. Injuries to the extremities predominated among children of all ages and accounted for more than 70% of all injuries. This study identified several age-specific injury patterns. There was an inverse relationship between age versus the relative frequency of upper extremity injuries, and fractures and dislocations; and there was a direct relationship between age versus lower extremity injuries and soft tissue injury. There was also an inverse relationship between age versus facial injuries, head and neck injuries, and lacerations. Annually, an estimated 1400 children (95% CI, 800-2000), or 2.0 per 100 000 United States children (95% CI, 1. 1-2.9), required hospital admission or interhospital transfer because of a trampoline-related injury. This represented 3.3% of all children with a trampoline-associated injury. Fractures or dislocations accounted for 83% of injuries among admitted or transferred children, and children with a fracture or dislocation were more likely to be admitted or transferred to another hospital (8.4%) than children with other types of injury (relative risk, 10.80; 95% CI

  7. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  8. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  9. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  10. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  11. Coding with partially hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

    1995-01-01

    Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

  12. HIV Prevalence Trends, Risky Behaviours, and Governmental and Community Responses to the Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric P. F. Chow

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of Review. Numerous studies reported the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM in China. This paper aims to investigate the overall epidemic trend and associated high-risk behaviours among Chinese MSM and to explore the governmental and community responses to the epidemic. Recent Findings. HIV prevalence among Chinese MSM increased rapidly in all Chinese regions in the past decade and disproportionally affected the Southwest China. In addition to the high-risk homosexual behaviours, overlapping bisexual, commercial, and drug use behaviours are commonly observed among Chinese MSM. The Chinese government has significantly expanded the surveillance efforts among MSM over the past decade. Community responses against HIV have been substantially strengthened with the support of international aid. However, lack of enabling legal and financial environment undermines the role of community-based organisations (CBOs in HIV surveillance and prevention. Conclusion. HIV continues to spread rapidly among MSM in China. The hidden nature of MSM and the overlapping homosexual, bisexual, and commercial behaviours remain a challenge for HIV prevention among MSM. Strong collaboration between the government and CBOs and innovative intervention approaches are essential for effective HIV surveillance and prevention among MSM in China.

  13. Compressing the hidden variable space of a qubit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montina, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    In previously exhibited hidden variable models of quantum state preparation and measurement, the number of continuous hidden variables describing the actual state of single realizations is never smaller than the quantum state manifold dimension. We introduce a simple model for a qubit whose hidden variable space is one-dimensional, i.e., smaller than the two-dimensional Bloch sphere. The hidden variable probability distributions associated with quantum states satisfy reasonable criteria of regularity. Possible generalizations of this shrinking to an N-dimensional Hilbert space are discussed.

  14. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  15. A survey of hidden-variables theories

    CERN Document Server

    Belinfante, F J

    1973-01-01

    A Survey of Hidden-Variables Theories is a three-part book on the hidden-variable theories, referred in this book as """"theories of the first kind"""". Part I reviews the motives in developing different types of hidden-variables theories. The quest for determinism led to theories of the first kind; the quest for theories that look like causal theories when applied to spatially separated systems that interacted in the past led to theories of the second kind. Parts II and III further describe the theories of the first kind and second kind, respectively. This book is written to make the literat

  16. A classification of hidden-variable properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandenburger, Adam; Yanofsky, Noson

    2008-01-01

    Hidden variables are extra components added to try to banish counterintuitive features of quantum mechanics. We start with a quantum-mechanical model and describe various properties that can be asked of a hidden-variable model. We present six such properties and a Venn diagram of how they are related. With two existence theorems and three no-go theorems (EPR, Bell and Kochen-Specker), we show which properties of empirically equivalent hidden-variable models are possible and which are not. Formally, our treatment relies only on classical probability models, and physical phenomena are used only to motivate which models to choose

  17. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  18. Perspective: Disclosing hidden sources of funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2009-09-01

    In this article, the author discusses ethical and policy issues related to the disclosure of hidden sources of funding in research. The author argues that authors have an ethical obligation to disclose hidden sources of funding and that journals should adopt policies to enforce this obligation. Journal policies should require disclosure of hidden sources of funding that authors know about and that have a direct relation to their research. To stimulate this discussion, the author describes a recent case: investigators who conducted a lung cancer screening study had received funding from a private foundation that was supported by a tobacco company, but they did not disclose this relationship to the journal. Investigators and journal editors must be prepared to deal with these issues in a manner that promotes honesty, transparency, fairness, and accountability in research. The development of well-defined, reasonable policies pertaining to hidden sources of funding can be a step in this direction.

  19. Hidden Statistics of Schroedinger Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2011-01-01

    Work was carried out in determination of the mathematical origin of randomness in quantum mechanics and creating a hidden statistics of Schr dinger equation; i.e., to expose the transitional stochastic process as a "bridge" to the quantum world. The governing equations of hidden statistics would preserve such properties of quantum physics as superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods.

  20. Need for Injury Prevention Education In Medical School Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaca, Federico E

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Injury is the leading cause of death and disability among the U.S. population aged 1 to 44 years. In 2006 more than 179,000 fatalities were attributed to injury. Despite increasing awareness of the global epidemic of injury and violence, a considerable gap remains between advances in injury-prevention research and prevention knowledge that is taught to medical students. This article discusses the growing need for U.S medical schools to train future physicians in the fundamentals of injury prevention and control. Teaching medical students to implement injury prevention in their future practice should help reduce injury morbidity and mortality. Deliberate efforts should be made to integrate injury-prevention education into existing curriculum. Key resources are available to do this. Emergency physicians can be essential advocates in establishing injury prevention training because of their clinical expertise in treating injury. Increasing the number of physicians with injury- and violence- prevention knowledge and skills is ultimately an important strategy to reduce the national and global burden of injury. [West J Emerg Med. 2010; 11(1:40-43].

  1. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  2. Hidden supersymmetry and Fermion number fractionalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhoury, R.

    1985-01-01

    This paper discusses how a hidden supersymmetry of the underlying field theories can be used to interpret and to calculate fermion number fractionalization in different dimensions. This is made possible by relating it to a corresponding Witten index of the hidden supersymmetry. The closely related anomalies in odd dimensions are also discussed

  3. The Hidden Reason Behind Children's Misbehavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nystul, Michael S.

    1986-01-01

    Discusses hidden reason theory based on the assumptions that: (1) the nature of people is positive; (2) a child's most basic psychological need is involvement; and (3) a child has four possible choices in life (good somebody, good nobody, bad somebody, or severely mentally ill.) A three step approach for implementing hidden reason theory is…

  4. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  5. The potential role of sports psychology in the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Vincent; Davis, Carolyn

    2013-06-01

    Sports psychologists play an important role in enhancing performance among athletes. In conjunction with team physicians, they can also shed light on psychological disorders common in athletes, such as mood and eating disorders, and overtraining syndrome. Sports psychologists can also lend their expertise to assist with injury prevention and recovery and compliance issues. Sports psychology has a role in helping to reverse the growing obesity epidemic among school-aged children. These professionals, working with coaches, can increase children's levels of physical activity. Cognitive-behavioral techniques could lead to enhanced enjoyment, increased participation, improved school performance, and a reduction in obesity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Hidden worlds in quantum physics

    CERN Document Server

    Gouesbet, Gérard

    2014-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed a resurgence in research and interest in the areas of quantum computation and entanglement. This new book addresses the hidden worlds or variables of quantum physics. Author Gérard Gouesbet studied and worked with a former student of Louis de Broglie, a pioneer of quantum physics. His presentation emphasizes the history and philosophical foundations of physics, areas that will interest lay readers as well as professionals and advanced undergraduate and graduate students of quantum physics. The introduction is succeeded by chapters offering background on relevant concepts in classical and quantum mechanics, a brief history of causal theories, and examinations of the double solution, pilot wave, and other hidden-variables theories. Additional topics include proofs of possibility and impossibility, contextuality, non-locality, classification of hidden-variables theories, and stochastic quantum mechanics. The final section discusses how to gain a genuine understanding of quantum mec...

  7. Hidden charged dark matter and chiral dark radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, P.; Nagata, Natsumi; Tang, Yong

    2017-10-01

    In the light of recent possible tensions in the Hubble constant H0 and the structure growth rate σ8 between the Planck and other measurements, we investigate a hidden-charged dark matter (DM) model where DM interacts with hidden chiral fermions, which are charged under the hidden SU(N) and U(1) gauge interactions. The symmetries in this model assure these fermions to be massless. The DM in this model, which is a Dirac fermion and singlet under the hidden SU(N), is also assumed to be charged under the U(1) gauge symmetry, through which it can interact with the chiral fermions. Below the confinement scale of SU(N), the hidden quark condensate spontaneously breaks the U(1) gauge symmetry such that there remains a discrete symmetry, which accounts for the stability of DM. This condensate also breaks a flavor symmetry in this model and Nambu-Goldstone bosons associated with this flavor symmetry appear below the confinement scale. The hidden U(1) gauge boson and hidden quarks/Nambu-Goldstone bosons are components of dark radiation (DR) above/below the confinement scale. These light fields increase the effective number of neutrinos by δNeff ≃ 0.59 above the confinement scale for N = 2, resolving the tension in the measurements of the Hubble constant by Planck and Hubble Space Telescope if the confinement scale is ≲1 eV. DM and DR continuously scatter with each other via the hidden U(1) gauge interaction, which suppresses the matter power spectrum and results in a smaller structure growth rate. The DM sector couples to the Standard Model sector through the exchange of a real singlet scalar mixing with the Higgs boson, which makes it possible to probe our model in DM direct detection experiments. Variants of this model are also discussed, which may offer alternative ways to investigate this scenario.

  8. Adaptive filtering for hidden node detection and tracking in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Franz; Setzer, Beverly; Chavez, Sergio; Tran, Hien; Lloyd, Alun L

    2017-07-01

    The identification of network connectivity from noisy time series is of great interest in the study of network dynamics. This connectivity estimation problem becomes more complicated when we consider the possibility of hidden nodes within the network. These hidden nodes act as unknown drivers on our network and their presence can lead to the identification of false connections, resulting in incorrect network inference. Detecting the parts of the network they are acting on is thus critical. Here, we propose a novel method for hidden node detection based on an adaptive filtering framework with specific application to neuronal networks. We consider the hidden node as a problem of missing variables when model fitting and show that the estimated system noise covariance provided by the adaptive filter can be used to localize the influence of the hidden nodes and distinguish the effects of different hidden nodes. Additionally, we show that the sequential nature of our algorithm allows for tracking changes in the hidden node influence over time.

  9. The hidden universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Disney, M.

    1985-01-01

    Astronomer Disney has followed a somewhat different tack than that of most popular books on cosmology by concentrating on the notion of hidden (as in not directly observable by its own radiation) matter in the universe

  10. Incremental discovery of hidden structure: Applications in theory of elementary particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zytkow, J.M.; Fischer, P.J.

    1996-01-01

    Discovering hidden structure is a challenging, universal research task in Physics, Chemistry, Biology, and other disciplines. Not only must the elements of hidden structure be postulated by the discoverer, but they can only be verified by indirect evidence, at the level of observable objects. In this paper we describe a framework for hidden structure discovery, built on a constructive definition of hidden structure. This definition leads to operators that build models of hidden structure step by step, postulating hidden objects, their combinations and properties, reactions described in terms of hidden objects, and mapping between the hidden and the observed structure. We introduce the operator dependency diagram, which shows the order of operator application and model evaluation. Different observational knowledge supports different evaluation criteria, which lead to different search systems with verifiable sequences of operator applications. Isomorph-free structure generation is another issue critical for efficiency of search. We apply our framework in the system GELL-MANN, that hypothesizes hidden structure for elementary particles and we present the results of a large scale search for quark models

  11. Religious Tolerance in the Hidden Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Nobel Kurniawan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Religious intolerance is spreading within the Indonesian institution of education. Previous studies have shown that the growth of intolerance is due to the state’s regulation and pedagogical apparatus. In contrast to the previous studies, I argue that the intolerance is related to hidden curriculum applied by the institution of education.  Normatively, the hidden curriculum contains the value of religious tolerance. However, factually, the author found that there are practices of intolerance, through the formal and informal spheres in the school’s structure, within the hidden curriculum. This article applies a qualitative approach with a mixed method research strategy to analyze data collected from students, teachers, and alumnis through field observation, in-depth interview, and survey.

  12. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  13. Hidden gauge structure of supersymmetric free differential algebras

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianopoli, Laura [DISAT, Politecnico di Torino,Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Torino,Torino (Italy); D’Auria, Riccardo [DISAT, Politecnico di Torino,Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin (Italy); Ravera, Lucrezia [DISAT, Politecnico di Torino,Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Torino,Torino (Italy)

    2016-08-16

    The aim of this paper is to clarify the role of the nilpotent fermionic generator Q{sup ′} introduced in http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0550-3213(82)90376-5 and appearing in the hidden supergroup underlying the free differential algebra (FDA) of D=11 supergravity. We give a physical explanation of its role by looking at the gauge properties of the theory. We find that its presence is necessary, in order that the extra 1-forms of the hidden supergroup give rise to the correct gauge transformations of the p-forms of the FDA. This interpretation is actually valid for any supergravity containing antisymmetric tensor fields, and any supersymmetric FDA can always be traded for a hidden Lie superalgebra containing extra fermionic nilpotent generators. As an interesting example we construct the hidden superalgebra associated with the FDA of N=2, D=7 supergravity. In this case we are able to parametrize the mutually non local 2- and 3-form B{sup (2)} and B{sup (3)} in terms of hidden 1-forms and find that supersymmetry and gauge invariance require in general the presence of two nilpotent fermionic generators in the hidden algebra. We propose that our approach, where all the invariances of the FDA are expressed as Lie derivatives of the p-forms in the hidden supergroup manifold, could be an appropriate framework to discuss theories defined in enlarged versions of superspace recently considered in the literature, such us double field theory and its generalizations.

  14. Fitting Hidden Markov Models to Psychological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Visser

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Markov models have been used extensively in psychology of learning. Applications of hidden Markov models are rare however. This is partially due to the fact that comprehensive statistics for model selection and model assessment are lacking in the psychological literature. We present model selection and model assessment statistics that are particularly useful in applying hidden Markov models in psychology. These statistics are presented and evaluated by simulation studies for a toy example. We compare AIC, BIC and related criteria and introduce a prediction error measure for assessing goodness-of-fit. In a simulation study, two methods of fitting equality constraints are compared. In two illustrative examples with experimental data we apply selection criteria, fit models with constraints and assess goodness-of-fit. First, data from a concept identification task is analyzed. Hidden Markov models provide a flexible approach to analyzing such data when compared to other modeling methods. Second, a novel application of hidden Markov models in implicit learning is presented. Hidden Markov models are used in this context to quantify knowledge that subjects express in an implicit learning task. This method of analyzing implicit learning data provides a comprehensive approach for addressing important theoretical issues in the field.

  15. Geometric phases and hidden local gauge symmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujikawa, Kazuo

    2005-01-01

    The analysis of geometric phases associated with level crossing is reduced to the familiar diagonalization of the Hamiltonian in the second quantized formulation. A hidden local gauge symmetry, which is associated with the arbitrariness of the phase choice of a complete orthonormal basis set, becomes explicit in this formulation (in particular, in the adiabatic approximation) and specifies physical observables. The choice of a basis set which specifies the coordinate in the functional space is arbitrary in the second quantization, and a subclass of coordinate transformations, which keeps the form of the action invariant, is recognized as the gauge symmetry. We discuss the implications of this hidden local gauge symmetry in detail by analyzing geometric phases for cyclic and noncyclic evolutions. It is shown that the hidden local symmetry provides a basic concept alternative to the notion of holonomy to analyze geometric phases and that the analysis based on the hidden local gauge symmetry leads to results consistent with the general prescription of Pancharatnam. We however note an important difference between the geometric phases for cyclic and noncyclic evolutions. We also explain a basic difference between our hidden local gauge symmetry and a gauge symmetry (or equivalence class) used by Aharonov and Anandan in their definition of generalized geometric phases

  16. Locating Hidden Servers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Oeverlier, Lasse; Syverson, Paul F

    2006-01-01

    .... Announced properties include server resistance to distributed DoS. Both the EFF and Reporters Without Borders have issued guides that describe using hidden services via Tor to protect the safety of dissidents as well as to resist censorship...

  17. Hidden neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose; Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1999-01-01

    A general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMMs) and neural networks (NNs) called hidden neural networks (HNNs) is described. The article begins by reviewing standard HMMs and estimation by conditional maximum likelihood, which is used by the HNN. In the HNN, the usual HMM probability...... parameters are replaced by the outputs of state-specific neural networks. As opposed to many other hybrids, the HNN is normalized globally and therefore has a valid probabilistic interpretation. All parameters in the HNN are estimated simultaneously according to the discriminative conditional maximum...... likelihood criterion. The HNN can be viewed as an undirected probabilistic independence network (a graphical model), where the neural networks provide a compact representation of the clique functions. An evaluation of the HNN on the task of recognizing broad phoneme classes in the TIMIT database shows clear...

  18. Hidden neural networks: application to speech recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1998-01-01

    We evaluate the hidden neural network HMM/NN hybrid on two speech recognition benchmark tasks; (1) task independent isolated word recognition on the Phonebook database, and (2) recognition of broad phoneme classes in continuous speech from the TIMIT database. It is shown how hidden neural networks...

  19. Microwave background constraints on mixing of photons with hidden photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirizzi, Alessandro; Redondo, Javier; Sigl, Guenter

    2008-12-01

    Various extensions of the Standard Model predict the existence of hidden photons kinetically mixing with the ordinary photon. This mixing leads to oscillations between photons and hidden photons, analogous to the observed oscillations between different neutrino flavors. In this context, we derive new bounds on the photon-hidden photon mixing parameters using the high precision cosmic microwave background spectral data collected by the Far Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer instrument on board of the Cosmic Background Explorer. Requiring the distortions of the CMB induced by the photon-hidden photon mixing to be smaller than experimental upper limits, this leads to a bound on the mixing angle χ 0 -7 - 10 -5 for hidden photon masses between 10 -14 eV and 10 -7 eV. This low-mass and low-mixing region of the hidden photon parameter space was previously unconstrained. (orig.)

  20. Hidden Crises and Communication: An Interactional Analysis of Hidden Crises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Annette Klarenbeek

    2011-01-01

    In this paper I describe the ways in which the communication discipline can make a hidden crisis transparent. For this purpose I examine the concept of crisis entrepreneurship from a communication point of view. Using discourse analysis, I analyse the discursive practices of crisis entrepreneurs in

  1. Hidden Crises and Communication : An Interactional Analysis of Hidden Crises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Annette Klarenbeek

    2011-01-01

    In this paper I describe the ways in which the communication discipline can make a hidden crisis transparent. For this purpose I examine the concept of crisis entrepreneurship from a communication point of view. Using discourse analysis, I analyse the discursive practices of crisis entrepreneurs in

  2. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  3. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  4. Fructokinase activity mediates dehydration-induced renal injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roncal Jimenez, Carlos A; Ishimoto, Takuji; Lanaspa, Miguel A; Rivard, Christopher J; Nakagawa, Takahiko; Ejaz, A Ahsan; Cicerchi, Christina; Inaba, Shinichiro; Le, MyPhuong; Miyazaki, Makoto; Glaser, Jason; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; González, Marvin A; Aragón, Aurora; Wesseling, Catharina; Sánchez-Lozada, Laura G; Johnson, Richard J

    2014-08-01

    The epidemic of chronic kidney disease in Nicaragua (Mesoamerican nephropathy) has been linked with recurrent dehydration. Here we tested whether recurrent dehydration may cause renal injury by activation of the polyol pathway, resulting in the generation of endogenous fructose in the kidney that might subsequently induce renal injury via metabolism by fructokinase. Wild-type and fructokinase-deficient mice were subjected to recurrent heat-induced dehydration. One group of each genotype was provided water throughout the day and the other group was hydrated at night, after the dehydration. Both groups received the same total hydration in 24 h. Wild-type mice that received delayed hydration developed renal injury, with elevated serum creatinine, increased urinary NGAL, proximal tubular injury, and renal inflammation and fibrosis. This was associated with activation of the polyol pathway, with increased renal cortical sorbitol and fructose levels. Fructokinase-knockout mice with delayed hydration were protected from renal injury. Thus, recurrent dehydration can induce renal injury via a fructokinase-dependent mechanism, likely from the generation of endogenous fructose via the polyol pathway. Access to sufficient water during the dehydration period can protect mice from developing renal injury. These studies provide a potential mechanism for Mesoamerican nephropathy.

  5. Hidden treasures - 50 km points of interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lommi, Matias; Kortelainen, Jaana

    2015-04-01

    Tampere is third largest city in Finland and a regional centre. During 70's there occurred several communal mergers. Nowadays this local area has both strong and diversed identity - from wilderness and agricultural fields to high density city living. Outside the city center there are interesting geological points unknown for modern city settlers. There is even a local proverb, "Go abroad to Teisko!". That is the area the Hidden Treasures -student project is focused on. Our school Tammerkoski Upper Secondary School (or Gymnasium) has emphasis on visual arts. We are going to offer our art students scientific and artistic experiences and knowledge about the hidden treasures of Teisko area and involve the Teisko inhabitants into this project. Hidden treasures - Precambrian subduction zone and a volcanism belt with dense bed of gold (Au) and arsenic (As), operating goldmines and quarries of minerals and metamorphic slates. - North of subduction zone a homogenic precambrian magmastone area with quarries, products known as Kuru Grey. - Former ashores of post-glasial Lake Näsijärvi and it's sediments enabled the developing agriculture and sustained settlement. Nowadays these ashores have both scenery and biodiversity values. - Old cattle sheds and dairy buildings made of local granite stones related to cultural stonebuilding inheritance. - Local active community of Kapee, about 100 inhabitants. Students will discover information of these "hidden" phenomena, and rendering this information trough Enviromental Art Method. Final form of this project will be published in several artistic and informative geocaches. These caches are achieved by a GPS-based special Hidden Treasures Cycling Route and by a website guiding people to find these hidden points of interests.

  6. The prevention of baseball and softball injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janda, David H

    2003-04-01

    Forty million individuals participate in organized softball leagues each year in the United States. Eighteen million additional student athletes and young adults also participate in organized baseball league play. In addition to being two of the most popular team sports in the United States, they also are responsible for a significant percentage of sports-related injuries that are sustained in the United States. Fortunately, numerous interventions independently have been shown to be effective at reducing the injury scenario, which has grown to be of epidemic proportion. Interventions such as break-away bases, batting helmets, face shields on helmets, lighter mass baseballs, and teaching and reiteration of the fundamentals of softball and baseball all have been effective in preventing millions of injuries and billions of dollars in healthcare costs each year in the United States.

  7. Hidden Markov Model Application to Transfer The Trader Online Forex Brokers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farida Suharleni

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model is elaboration of Markov chain, which is applicable to cases that can’t directly observe. In this research, Hidden Markov Model is used to know trader’s transition to broker forex online. In Hidden Markov Model, observed state is observable part and hidden state is hidden part. Hidden Markov Model allows modeling system that contains interrelated observed state and hidden state. As observed state in trader’s transition to broker forex online is category 1, category 2, category 3, category 4, category 5 by condition of every broker forex online, whereas as hidden state is broker forex online Marketiva, Masterforex, Instaforex, FBS and Others. First step on application of Hidden Markov Model in this research is making construction model by making a probability of transition matrix (A from every broker forex online. Next step is making a probability of observation matrix (B by making conditional probability of five categories, that is category 1, category 2, category 3, category 4, category 5 by condition of every broker forex online and also need to determine an initial state probability (π from every broker forex online. The last step is using Viterbi algorithm to find hidden state sequences that is broker forex online sequences which is the most possible based on model and observed state that is the five categories. Application of Hidden Markov Model is done by making program with Viterbi algorithm using Delphi 7.0 software with observed state based on simulation data. Example: By the number of observation T = 5 and observed state sequences O = (2,4,3,5,1 is found hidden state sequences which the most possible with observed state O as following : where X1 = FBS, X2 = Masterforex, X3 = Marketiva, X4 = Others, and X5 = Instaforex.

  8. Microwave background constraints on mixing of photons with hidden photons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirizzi, Alessandro [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany); Redondo, Javier [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Sigl, Guenter [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2008-12-15

    Various extensions of the Standard Model predict the existence of hidden photons kinetically mixing with the ordinary photon. This mixing leads to oscillations between photons and hidden photons, analogous to the observed oscillations between different neutrino flavors. In this context, we derive new bounds on the photon-hidden photon mixing parameters using the high precision cosmic microwave background spectral data collected by the Far Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer instrument on board of the Cosmic Background Explorer. Requiring the distortions of the CMB induced by the photon-hidden photon mixing to be smaller than experimental upper limits, this leads to a bound on the mixing angle {chi}{sub 0} hidden photon masses between 10{sup -14} eV and 10{sup -7} eV. This low-mass and low-mixing region of the hidden photon parameter space was previously unconstrained. (orig.)

  9. Hidden symmetries in minimal five-dimensional supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poessel, Markus; Silva, Sebastian

    2004-01-01

    We study the hidden symmetries arising in the dimensional reduction of d=5, N=2 supergravity to three dimensions. Extending previous partial results for the bosonic part, we give a derivation that includes fermionic terms, shedding light on the appearance of the local hidden symmetry SO(4) in the reduction

  10. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  11. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  12. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

    2014-11-21

    On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

  14. Local models and hidden nonlocality in Quantum Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Guerini, Leonardo

    2014-01-01

    This Master's thesis has two central subjects: the simulation of correlations generated by local measurements on entangled quantum states by local hidden-variables models and the revelation of hidden nonlocality. We present and detail the Werner's local model and the hidden nonlocality of some Werner states of dimension $d\\geq5$, the Gisin-Degorre's local model for a Werner state of dimension $d=2$ and the local model of Hirsch et al. for mixtures of the singlet state and noise, all of them f...

  15. Searching for hidden-charm baryonium signals in QCD sum rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Hua-Xing; Zhou, Dan [Beihang University, School of Physics, Beijing Key Laboratory of Advanced Nuclear Materials and Physics, Beijing (China); Chen, Wei [University of Saskatchewan, Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Liu, Xiang [Lanzhou University, School of Physical Science and Technology, Lanzhou (China); Lanzhou University, Research Center for Hadron and CSR Physics, Institute of Modern Physics of CAS, Lanzhou (China); Zhu, Shi-Lin [Peking University, School of Physics, State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology, Beijing (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Quantum Matter, Beijing (China); Peking University, Center of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China)

    2016-11-15

    We give an explicit QCD sum rule investigation for hidden-charm baryonium states with the quark content u anti ud anti dc anti c, spin J = 0/1/2/3, and of both positive and negative parities. We systematically construct the relevant local hidden-charm baryonium interpolating currents, which can actually couple to various structures, including hidden-charm baryonium states, charmonium states plus two pions, and hidden-charm tetraquark states plus one pion, etc. We do not know which structure these currents couple to at the beginning, but after sum rule analyses we can obtain some information. We find some of them can couple to hidden-charm baryonium states, using which we evaluate the masses of the lowest-lying hidden-charm baryonium states with quantum numbers J{sup P} = 2{sup -}/3{sup -}/0{sup +}/1{sup +}/2{sup +} to be around 5.0 GeV. We suggest to search for hidden-charm baryonium states, especially the one of J = 3{sup -}, in the D-wave J/ψππ and P-wave J/ψρ and J/ψω channels in this energy region. (orig.)

  16. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  17. Hidden symmetries in five-dimensional supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poessel, M.

    2003-05-01

    This thesis is concerned with the study of hidden symmetries in supergravity, which play an important role in the present picture of supergravity and string theory. Concretely, the appearance of a hidden G 2(+2) /SO(4) symmetry is studied in the dimensional reduction of d=5, N=2 supergravity to three dimensions - a parallel model to the more famous E 8(+8) /SO(16) case in eleven-dimensional supergravity. Extending previous partial results for the bosonic part, I give a derivation that includes fermionic terms. This sheds new light on the appearance of the local hidden symmetry SO(4) in the reduction, and shows up an unusual feature which follows from an analysis of the R-symmetry associated with N=4 supergravity and of the supersymmetry variations, and which has no parallel in the eleven-dimensional case: The emergence of an additional SO(3) as part of the enhanced local symmetry, invisible in the dimensional reduction of the gravitino, and corresponding to the fact that, of the SO(4) used in the coset model, only the diagonal SO(3) is visible immediately upon dimensional reduction. The uncovering of the hidden symmetries proceeds via the construction of the proper coset gravity in three dimensions, and matching it with the Lagrangian obtained from the reduction. (orig.)

  18. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  19. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  20. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  1. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  2. QCD sum rule study of hidden-charm pentaquarks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Hua-Xing; Cui, Er-Liang [Beihang University, School of Physics and Beijing Key Laboratory of Advanced Nuclear Materials and Physics, Beijing (China); Chen, Wei; Steele, T.G. [University of Saskatchewan, Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan (Canada); Liu, Xiang [Lanzhou University, School of Physical Science and Technology, Lanzhou (China); Lanzhou University and Institute of Modern Physics of CAS, Research Center for Hadron and CSR Physics, Lanzhou (China); Zhu, Shi-Lin [Peking University, School of Physics and State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology, Beijing (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Quantum Matter, Beijing (China); Peking University, Center of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China)

    2016-10-15

    We study the mass spectra of hidden-charm pentaquarks having spin J = (1)/(2)/(3)/(2)/(5)/(2) and quark contents uudc anti c. We systematically construct all the relevant local hidden-charm pentaquark currents, and we select some of them to perform QCD sum rule analyses. We find that the P{sub c}(4380) and P{sub c}(4450) can be identified as hidden-charm pentaquark states composed of an anti-charmed meson and a charmed baryon. Besides them, we also find (a) the lowest-lying hidden-charm pentaquark state of J{sup P} = 1/2{sup -} has the mass 4.33{sup +0.17}{sub -0.13} GeV, while the one of J{sup P} = 1/2{sup +} is significantly higher, that is, around 4.7-4.9 GeV; (b) the lowest-lying hidden-charm pentaquark state of J{sup P} = 3/2{sup -} has the mass 4.37{sup +0.18}{sub -0.13} GeV, consistent with the P{sub c}(4380) of J{sup P} = 3/2{sup -}, while the one of J{sup P} = 3/2{sup +} is also significantly higher, that is, above 4.6 GeV; (c) the hidden-charm pentaquark state of J{sup P} = 5/2{sup -} has a mass around 4.5-4.6 GeV, slightly larger than the P{sub c}(4450) of J{sup P} = 5/2{sup +}. (orig.)

  3. The rise and fall of rabies in Japan: A quantitative history of rabies epidemics in Osaka Prefecture, 1914-1933.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiko Kurosawa

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Japan has been free from rabies since the 1950s. However, during the early 1900s several large-scale epidemics spread throughout the country. Here we investigate the dynamics of these epidemics between 1914 and 1933 in Osaka Prefecture, using archival data including newspapers. The association between dog rabies cases and human population density was investigated using Mixed-effects models and epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R0, the incubation and infectious period and the serial interval were estimated. A total of 4,632 animal rabies cases were reported, mainly in dogs (99.0%, 4,584 cases during two epidemics from 1914 to 1921, and 1922 to 1933 respectively. The second epidemic was larger (3,705 cases than the first (879 cases, but had a lower R0 (1.50 versus 2.42. The first epidemic was controlled through capture of stray dogs and tethering of pet dogs. Dog mass vaccination began in 1923, with campaigns to capture stray dogs. Rabies in Osaka Prefecture was finally eliminated in 1933. A total of 3,805 rabid dog-bite injuries, and 75 human deaths were reported. The relatively low incidence of human rabies, high ratio of post-exposure vaccines (PEP and bite injuries by rabid dogs (minimum 6.2 to maximum 73.6, between 1924 and 1928, and a decline in the proportion of bite victims that developed hydrophobia over time (slope = -0.29, se = 3, p < 0.001, indicated that increased awareness and use of PEP might have prevented disease. Although significantly more dog rabies cases were detected at higher human population densities (slope = 0.66, se = 0.03, p < 0.01, there were fewer dog rabies cases detected per capita (slope = -0.34, se = 0.03, p < 0.01. We suggest that the combination of mass vaccination and restriction of dog movement enabled by strong legislation was key to eliminate rabies. Moreover, the prominent role of the media in both reporting rabies cases and efforts to control the disease likely contributed

  4. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  5. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  6. Sociocultural Dimension of Hidden Content in a Professional Language Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina E. Shishlova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: studying curriculum as a pedagogical problem has traditionally been reduced to the analysis of its explicit content, set in official educational documents. However, a much less studied hidden content plays a significant role in education. So, what is the role of the hidden curriculum during professional language training? The purpose of the article is to determine the potential impact of hidden curriculum on students’ conceptual worldview. Comparing the worldview presented in textbooks with students’ one has allowed us to estimate the rate of influence of hidden curr iculum. Materials and Methods: the methodological basis of the work is the cultural concept of personalityoriented education. The methodology for studying the role of hidden curriculum includes four stages: at the first stage, the authors set the criteria for selecting textbooks for analysis and do the selection; at the second stage, the authors select sociocultural concepts for analysis; at the third stage, the scheme of analysis is designed and the analysis of textbooks is done; at the fourth stage, the authors identify the potential influence of hidden curriculum on students’ conceptual worldview. Results: the structure of hidden curriculum has been determined and the scheme for analysing its subject component has been developed. The authors have identified a significant influence of hidden curriculum on students’ worldview, which represents the scientific novelty of the article. Discussion and Conclusions: the article gives the definition of a hidden curriculum which is new for Russian pedagogy and presents a methodology for its analysis in EFL textbooks. That analysis is recommended to be conducted when selecting teaching materials both i n languages and other humanities.

  7. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  8. Infinite hidden conditional random fields for human behavior analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bousmalis, Konstantinos; Zafeiriou, Stefanos; Morency, Louis-Philippe; Pantic, Maja

    2013-01-01

    Hidden conditional random fields (HCRFs) are discriminative latent variable models that have been shown to successfully learn the hidden structure of a given classification problem (provided an appropriate validation of the number of hidden states). In this brief, we present the infinite HCRF (iHCRF), which is a nonparametric model based on hierarchical Dirichlet processes and is capable of automatically learning the optimal number of hidden states for a classification task. We show how we learn the model hyperparameters with an effective Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling technique, and we explain the process that underlines our iHCRF model with the Restaurant Franchise Rating Agencies analogy. We show that the iHCRF is able to converge to a correct number of represented hidden states, and outperforms the best finite HCRFs--chosen via cross-validation--for the difficult tasks of recognizing instances of agreement, disagreement, and pain. Moreover, the iHCRF manages to achieve this performance in significantly less total training, validation, and testing time.

  9. Detecting hidden particles with MATHUSLA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jared A.

    2018-03-01

    A hidden sector containing light long-lived particles provides a well-motivated place to find new physics. The recently proposed MATHUSLA experiment has the potential to be extremely sensitive to light particles originating from rare meson decays in the very long lifetime region. In this work, we illustrate this strength with the specific example of a light scalar mixed with the standard model-like Higgs boson, a model where MATHUSLA can further probe unexplored parameter space from exotic Higgs decays. Design augmentations should be considered in order to maximize the ability of MATHUSLA to discover very light hidden sector particles.

  10. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu

    2014-03-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.

  11. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochkarev, V V; Lerner, E Yu

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different

  12. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  13. SHIFT: server for hidden stops analysis in frame-shifted translation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Arun; Singh, Tiratha Raj

    2013-02-23

    Frameshift is one of the three classes of recoding. Frame-shifts lead to waste of energy, resources and activity of the biosynthetic machinery. In addition, some peptides synthesized after frame-shifts are probably cytotoxic which serve as plausible cause for innumerable number of diseases and disorders such as muscular dystrophies, lysosomal storage disorders, and cancer. Hidden stop codons occur naturally in coding sequences among all organisms. These codons are associated with the early termination of translation for incorrect reading frame selection and help to reduce the metabolic cost related to the frameshift events. Researchers have identified several consequences of hidden stop codons and their association with myriad disorders. However the wealth of information available is speckled and not effortlessly acquiescent to data-mining. To reduce this gap, this work describes an algorithmic web based tool to study hidden stops in frameshifted translation for all the lineages through respective genetic code systems. This paper describes SHIFT, an algorithmic web application tool that provides a user-friendly interface for identifying and analyzing hidden stops in frameshifted translation of genomic sequences for all available genetic code systems. We have calculated the correlation between codon usage frequencies and the plausible contribution of codons towards hidden stops in an off-frame context. Markovian chains of various order have been used to model hidden stops in frameshifted peptides and their evolutionary association with naturally occurring hidden stops. In order to obtain reliable and persuasive estimates for the naturally occurring and predicted hidden stops statistical measures have been implemented. This paper presented SHIFT, an algorithmic tool that allows user-friendly exploration, analysis, and visualization of hidden stop codons in frameshifted translations. It is expected that this web based tool would serve as a useful complement for

  14. Asymptotics for Estimating Equations in Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Vinsløv; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    Results on asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimate in hidden Markov models are extended in two directions. The stationarity assumption is relaxed, which allows for a covariate process influencing the hidden Markov process. Furthermore a class of estimating equations is considered...

  15. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  16. A hidden service model based on HS-HS anonymous network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Yitong; Zhao, Xing; Fei, Jinlong; Zhu, Yuefei

    2017-10-01

    The Hidden Service provided by Tor anonymous network can effectively protect the anonymity and security of the Hidden server, this article through the analysis of the data packet structure of Tor, three jump transmission mechanism and link establishment protocol and Hidden Service communication process, in view of the Hidden node number too much, link building Service for too long and too redundant link problem. An improved hidden service model HS-HS is proposed that incorporating multiple transmission link and reuse, and at the same time will be important transit point for reuse protection link anonymity, through the ExperimenTor simulation environment test, verify the improved model of HS-HS can be more effective in guarantee anonymity and security, improve the overall efficiency of data transmission, to meet the needs of today's anonymous service.

  17. VISIBLE COSTS AND HIDDEN COSTS IN THE BAKING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Criveanu Maria

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Hidden costs are present in the activity of any company, hardly identified in the traditional administrative accounting. The high levels of the hidden costs and their unknown presence have serious consequences on the decisions made by the managers. This paper aims at presenting some aspects related to the hidden costs that occur in the activity of the companies in the baking industry and the possibilities to reduce their level.

  18. The hidden values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Birgitte; Jensen, Karsten Klint

    “The Hidden Values - Transparency in Decision-Making Processes Dealing with Hazardous Activities”. The report seeks to shed light on what is needed to create a transparent framework for political and administrative decisions on the use of GMOs and chemical products. It is our hope that the report...

  19. Suppressing the QCD axion abundance by hidden monopoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawasaki, Masahiro

    2015-11-01

    We study the Witten effect of hidden monopoles on the QCD axion dynamics, and show that its abundance as well as isocurvature perturbations can be significantly suppressed if there is a sufficient amount of hidden monopoles. When the hidden monopoles make up a significant fraction of dark matter, the Witten effect suppresses the abundance of axion with the decay constant smaller than 10 12 GeV. The cosmological domain wall problem of the QCD axion can also be avoided, relaxing the upper bound on the decay constant when the Peccei-Quinn symmetry is spontaneously broken after inflation.

  20. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  2. Determination of hidden chromosome instability in persons suffered from the action of factors of the Chernobyl accident by the modified 'G2 bleomycin sensitivity assay'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dibs'kij, S.S.; Dibs'ka, O.B.; Pedan, L.P.; Pyilyins'ka, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    With the help of the modified 'G 2 -bleomycin sensitivity assay' the voluntary investigation of hidden chromosome instability in 53 persons with different radiation exposures had been fulfilled. In all examined groups, the individual levels of chromosome injuries under identical bleomycin exposure varied in a wide range and didn't depend on their initial values in intact cultures. Among control donors and individuals with low radiation exposure, ∼ 33 % hypertensive persons had been identified that can be considered as a genetically caused phenomenon. In patients recovered from acute radiation, 57.9 % persons expressed the hidden chromosome instability. The data obtained allow us to assume that high doses of ionizing radiation can modify the inherited susceptibility of human chromosomes to a mutagen exposure.

  3. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  4. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  5. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  6. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  7. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  8. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  9. Context Tree Estimation in Variable Length Hidden Markov Models

    OpenAIRE

    Dumont, Thierry

    2011-01-01

    We address the issue of context tree estimation in variable length hidden Markov models. We propose an estimator of the context tree of the hidden Markov process which needs no prior upper bound on the depth of the context tree. We prove that the estimator is strongly consistent. This uses information-theoretic mixture inequalities in the spirit of Finesso and Lorenzo(Consistent estimation of the order for Markov and hidden Markov chains(1990)) and E.Gassiat and S.Boucheron (Optimal error exp...

  10. Extracting hidden-photon dark matter from an LC-circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arias, Paola; Arza, Ariel; Gamboa, Jorge; Mendez, Fernando

    2014-11-01

    We point out that a cold dark matter condensate made of gauge bosons from an extra hidden U(1) sector - dubbed hidden-photons - can create a small, oscillating electric density current. Thus, they could also be searched for in the recently proposed LC-circuit setup conceived for axion cold dark matter search by Sikivie, Sullivan and Tanner. We estimate the sensitivity of this setup for hidden-photon cold dark matter and we find it could cover a sizable, so far unexplored parameter space.

  11. Extracting Hidden-Photon Dark Matter From an LC-Circuit

    CERN Document Server

    Arias, Paola; Döbrich, Babette; Gamboa, Jorge; Méndez, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    We point out that a cold dark matter condensate made of gauge bosons from an extra hidden U(1) sector - dubbed hidden- photons - can create a small, oscillating electric density current. Thus, they could also be searched for in the recently proposed LC-circuit setup conceived for axion cold dark matter search by Sikivie, Sullivan and Tanner. We estimate the sensitivity of this setup for hidden-photon cold dark matter and we find it could cover a sizable, so far unexplored parameter space.

  12. Hidden photons in beam dump experiments and in connection with dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreas, Sarah

    2012-12-15

    Hidden sectors with light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so-called hidden photons, recently received much interest as natural feature of beyond standard model scenarios like string theory and SUSY and because of their possible connection to dark matter. This paper presents limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from experiments at KEK and Orsay. Additionally, various hidden sector models containing both a hidden photon and a dark matter candidate are discussed with respect to their viability and potential signatures in direct detection.

  13. Hidden photons in beam dump experiments and in connection with dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreas, Sarah

    2012-12-01

    Hidden sectors with light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so-called hidden photons, recently received much interest as natural feature of beyond standard model scenarios like string theory and SUSY and because of their possible connection to dark matter. This paper presents limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from experiments at KEK and Orsay. Additionally, various hidden sector models containing both a hidden photon and a dark matter candidate are discussed with respect to their viability and potential signatures in direct detection.

  14. Blunt Traumatic Extracranial Cerebrovascular Injury and Ischemic Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul M. Foreman

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ischemic stroke occurs in a significant subset of patients with blunt traumatic cerebrovascular injury (TCVI. The patients are victims of motor vehicle crashes, assaults or other high-energy collisions, and suffer ischemic stroke due to injury to the extracranial carotid or vertebral arteries. Summary: An increasing number of patients with TCVI are being identified, largely because of the expanding use of computed tomography angiography for screening patients with blunt trauma. Patients with TCVI are particularly challenging to manage because they often suffer polytrauma, that is, numerous additional injuries including orthopedic, chest, abdominal, and head injuries. Presently, there is no consensus about optimal management. Key Messages: Most literature about TCVI and stroke has been published in trauma, general surgery, and neurosurgery journals; because of this, and because these patients are managed primarily by trauma surgeons, patients with stroke due to TCVI have been essentially hidden from view of neurologists. This review is intended to bring this clinical entity to the attention of clinicians and investigators with specific expertise in neurology and stroke.

  15. Search for hidden particles with the SHiP experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagner, Caren; Bick, Daniel; Bieschke, Stefan; Ebert, Joachim; Schmidt-Parzefall, Walter [Universitaet Hamburg, Institut fuer Experimentalphysik, Luruper Chaussee 149, 22761 Hamburg (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Many theories beyond the standard model predict long lived neutral (hidden) particles. There might be a whole Hidden Sector (HS) of weakly interacting particles, which cannot be detected in existing high energy experiments. The SHiP experiment (Search for Hidden Particles) requires a high intensity beam dump, which could be realized by a new facility at the CERN SPS accelerator. New superweakly interacting particles with masses below O(10) GeV could be produced in the beam dump and detected in a general purpose Hidden Sector (HS) detector. In addition there will be a dedicated tau neutrino subdetector. I present the major requirements and technical challenges for the HS detector and discuss how the HS can be accessed through several portals: neutrino portal, scalar portal, vector portal and many more.

  16. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  17. Multilayer Neural Networks with Extensively Many Hidden Units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen-Zvi, Michal; Engel, Andreas; Kanter, Ido

    2001-01-01

    The information processing abilities of a multilayer neural network with a number of hidden units scaling as the input dimension are studied using statistical mechanics methods. The mapping from the input layer to the hidden units is performed by general symmetric Boolean functions, whereas the hidden layer is connected to the output by either discrete or continuous couplings. Introducing an overlap in the space of Boolean functions as order parameter, the storage capacity is found to scale with the logarithm of the number of implementable Boolean functions. The generalization behavior is smooth for continuous couplings and shows a discontinuous transition to perfect generalization for discrete ones

  18. Hidden Area and Mechanical Nonlinearities in Freestanding Graphene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Ryan J. T.; Lavrik, Nickolay V.; Vlassiouk, Ivan; Srijanto, Bernadeta R.; Bolotin, Kirill I.

    2017-06-01

    We investigated the effect of out-of-plane crumpling on the mechanical response of graphene membranes. In our experiments, stress was applied to graphene membranes using pressurized gas while the strain state was monitored through two complementary techniques: interferometric profilometry and Raman spectroscopy. By comparing the data obtained through these two techniques, we determined the geometric hidden area which quantifies the crumpling strength. While the devices with hidden area ˜0 % obeyed linear mechanics with biaxial stiffness 428 ±10 N /m , specimens with hidden area in the range 0.5%-1.0% were found to obey an anomalous nonlinear Hooke's law with an exponent ˜0.1 .

  19. [Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatani, Sergio

    2003-03-01

    When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

  20. Extracting hidden-photon dark matter from an LC-circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arias, Paola; Arza, Ariel; Gamboa, Jorge; Mendez, Fernando; Doebrich, Babette

    2015-01-01

    We point out that a cold dark matter condensate made of gauge bosons from an extra hidden U(1) sector - dubbed hidden photons - can create a small, oscillating electric density current. Thus, they could also be searched for in the recently proposed LC-circuit setup conceived for axion cold dark matter search by Sikivie, Sullivan and Tanner. We estimate the sensitivity of this setup for hidden-photon cold dark matter and we find it could cover a sizable, so far unexplored parameter space. (orig.)

  1. The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Wei

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

  2. Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels; Lassen, David Dreyer

    2017-01-01

    Do political institutions limit rent seeking by politicians? We study the transformation of petroleum rents, almost universally under direct government control, into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in offshore financial centers that specialize in secrecy and asset protection. Our...... rulers is diverted to secret accounts. We find very limited evidence that shocks to other types of income not directly controlled by governments affect hidden wealth....

  3. Hidden charm molecules in a finite volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albaladejo, M.; Hidalgo-Duque, C.; Nieves, J.; Oset, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper we address the interaction of charmed mesons in hidden charm channels in a finite box. We use the interaction from a recent model based on heavy quark spin symmetry that predicts molecules of hidden charm in the infinite volume. The energy levels in the box are generated within this model, and several methods for the analysis of these levels ("inverse problem") are investigated. (author)

  4. B-graph sampling to estimate the size of a hidden population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spreen, M.; Bogaerts, S.

    2015-01-01

    Link-tracing designs are often used to estimate the size of hidden populations by utilizing the relational links between their members. A major problem in studies of hidden populations is the lack of a convenient sampling frame. The most frequently applied design in studies of hidden populations is

  5. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  6. Hidden Agendas in Marriage: Affective and Longitudinal Dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krokoff, Lowell J.

    1990-01-01

    Examines how couples' discussions of troublesome problems reveal hidden agendas (issues not directly discussed or explored). Finds disgust and contempt are at the core of both love and respect agendas for husbands and wives. Finds that wives' more than husbands' hidden agendas are directly predictive of how negatively they argue at home. (SR)

  7. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  8. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  9. On the LHC sensitivity for non-thermalised hidden sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahlhoefer, Felix

    2018-04-01

    We show under rather general assumptions that hidden sectors that never reach thermal equilibrium in the early Universe are also inaccessible for the LHC. In other words, any particle that can be produced at the LHC must either have been in thermal equilibrium with the Standard Model at some point or must be produced via the decays of another hidden sector particle that has been in thermal equilibrium. To reach this conclusion, we parametrise the cross section connecting the Standard Model to the hidden sector in a very general way and use methods from linear programming to calculate the largest possible number of LHC events compatible with the requirement of non-thermalisation. We find that even the HL-LHC cannot possibly produce more than a few events with energy above 10 GeV involving states from a non-thermalised hidden sector.

  10. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  11. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  12. Massive hidden photons as lukewarm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redondo, Javier; Postma, Marieke

    2008-11-01

    We study the possibility that a keV-MeV mass hidden photon (HP), i.e. a hidden sector U(1) gauge boson, accounts for the observed amount of dark matter. We focus on the case where the HP interacts with the standard model sector only through kinetic mixing with the photon. The relic abundance is computed including all relevant plasma effects into the photon's self-energy, which leads to a resonant yield almost independent of the HP mass. The HP can decay into three photons. Moreover, if light enough it can be copiously produced in stars. Including bounds from cosmic photon backgrounds and stellar evolution, we find that the hidden photon can only give a subdominant contribution to the dark matter. This negative conclusion may be avoided if another production mechanism besides kinetic mixing is operative. (orig.)

  13. Massive hidden photons as lukewarm dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Javier [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Postma, Marieke [Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica (NIKHEF), Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    We study the possibility that a keV-MeV mass hidden photon (HP), i.e. a hidden sector U(1) gauge boson, accounts for the observed amount of dark matter. We focus on the case where the HP interacts with the standard model sector only through kinetic mixing with the photon. The relic abundance is computed including all relevant plasma effects into the photon's self-energy, which leads to a resonant yield almost independent of the HP mass. The HP can decay into three photons. Moreover, if light enough it can be copiously produced in stars. Including bounds from cosmic photon backgrounds and stellar evolution, we find that the hidden photon can only give a subdominant contribution to the dark matter. This negative conclusion may be avoided if another production mechanism besides kinetic mixing is operative. (orig.)

  14. New limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dumps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreas, Sarah; Niebuhr, Carsten; Ringwald, Andreas

    2012-09-01

    Hidden sectors with light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so called hidden photons, have recently attracted some attention because they are a common feature of physics beyond the Standard Model like string theory and SUSY and additionally are phenomenologically of great interest regarding recent astrophysical observations. The hidden photon is already constrained by various laboratory experiments and presently searched for in running as well as upcoming experiments. We summarize the current status of limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from such experiments at KEK and Orsay that have so far not been considered. All our limits take into account the experimental acceptances obtained from Monte Carlo simulations.

  15. New limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dumps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreas, Sarah; Niebuhr, Carsten; Ringwald, Andreas

    2012-09-15

    Hidden sectors with light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so called hidden photons, have recently attracted some attention because they are a common feature of physics beyond the Standard Model like string theory and SUSY and additionally are phenomenologically of great interest regarding recent astrophysical observations. The hidden photon is already constrained by various laboratory experiments and presently searched for in running as well as upcoming experiments. We summarize the current status of limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from such experiments at KEK and Orsay that have so far not been considered. All our limits take into account the experimental acceptances obtained from Monte Carlo simulations.

  16. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    of meningococci, and neither possesses antitoxic power. The mixture of antiserum with lysol and with protargol reduces to a certain extent the antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effect of the chemicals; but this action is insufficient to set aside wholly the injurious effects which they produce. It follows, therefore, that whatever theoretical advantages might accrue from a bactericidal activity exerted by these chemicals independently of the type of meningococcus causing epidemic meningitis, is more than offset by the harmful effects which they cause. Hence specific antiserum seems to provide the logical therapeutic agent with which to combat epidemic meningitis, since it is itself innocuous and promotes those processes essential to recovery from the disease. The problem up to the present has been that of producing an antiserum which represents the several types of the meningococcus, and this problem is now in a fair way to being solved.

  17. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  18. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  19. Invisible axion in the hidden sector of no-scale supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Hikaru

    1987-01-01

    We propose a new axion model which incorporates the U(1) PQ symmetry into a hidden sector, as well as an observable sector, of no-scale supergravity models. The axion is a spin-zero field in the hidden sector. The U(1) PQ symmetry is naturally embedded in the family symmetry of the no-scale models. Invisible axions live in the gravity hidden sector without conflict with the cosmological and astrophysical constraints. (orig.)

  20. Increased taxon sampling reveals thousands of hidden orthologs in flatworms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Gains and losses shape the gene complement of animal lineages and are a fundamental aspect of genomic evolution. Acquiring a comprehensive view of the evolution of gene repertoires is limited by the intrinsic limitations of common sequence similarity searches and available databases. Thus, a subset of the gene complement of an organism consists of hidden orthologs, i.e., those with no apparent homology to sequenced animal lineages—mistakenly considered new genes—but actually representing rapidly evolving orthologs or undetected paralogs. Here, we describe Leapfrog, a simple automated BLAST pipeline that leverages increased taxon sampling to overcome long evolutionary distances and identify putative hidden orthologs in large transcriptomic databases by transitive homology. As a case study, we used 35 transcriptomes of 29 flatworm lineages to recover 3427 putative hidden orthologs, some unidentified by OrthoFinder and HaMStR, two common orthogroup inference algorithms. Unexpectedly, we do not observe a correlation between the number of putative hidden orthologs in a lineage and its “average” evolutionary rate. Hidden orthologs do not show unusual sequence composition biases that might account for systematic errors in sequence similarity searches. Instead, gene duplication with divergence of one paralog and weak positive selection appear to underlie hidden orthology in Platyhelminthes. By using Leapfrog, we identify key centrosome-related genes and homeodomain classes previously reported as absent in free-living flatworms, e.g., planarians. Altogether, our findings demonstrate that hidden orthologs comprise a significant proportion of the gene repertoire in flatworms, qualifying the impact of gene losses and gains in gene complement evolution. PMID:28400424

  1. Searching for hidden sector in multiparticle production at LHC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel-Angel Sanchis-Lozano

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We study the impact of a hidden sector beyond the Standard Model, e.g. a Hidden Valley model, on factorial moments and cumulants of multiplicity distributions in multiparticle production with a special emphasis on the prospects for LHC results.

  2. An introduction to hidden Markov models for biological sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1998-01-01

    A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding.......A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding....

  3. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  4. The origin of the hidden supersymmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakubsky, Vit; Nieto, Luis-Miguel; Plyushchay, Mikhail S.

    2010-01-01

    The hidden supersymmetry and related tri-supersymmetric structure of the free particle system, the Dirac delta potential problem and the Aharonov-Bohm effect (planar, bound state, and tubule models) are explained by a special nonlocal unitary transformation, which for the usual N=2 supercharges has a nature of Foldy-Wouthuysen transformation. We show that in general case, the bosonized supersymmetry of nonlocal, parity even systems emerges in the same construction, and explain the origin of the unusual N=2 supersymmetry of electron in three-dimensional parity even magnetic field. The observation extends to include the hidden superconformal symmetry.

  5. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  6. Naturally light hidden photons in LARGE volume string compactifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodsell, M.; Jaeckel, J.; Redondo, J.; Ringwald, A.

    2009-09-01

    Extra ''hidden'' U(1) gauge factors are a generic feature of string theory that is of particular phenomenological interest. They can kinetically mix with the Standard Model photon and are thereby accessible to a wide variety of astrophysical and cosmological observations and laboratory experiments. In this paper we investigate the masses and the kinetic mixing of hidden U(1)s in LARGE volume compactifications of string theory. We find that in these scenarios the hidden photons can be naturally light and that their kinetic mixing with the ordinary electromagnetic photon can be of a size interesting for near future experiments and observations. (orig.)

  7. Hidden photon dark matter search with large metallic mirror

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doebrich, Babette; Lindner, Axel; Daumiller, Kai; Engel, Ralph; Roth, Markus; Kowalski, Marek

    2014-10-01

    If Dark Matter is composed of hidden-sector photons that kinetically mix with photons of the visible sector, then Dark Matter has a tiny oscillating electric field component. Its presence would lead to a small amount of visible radiation being emitted from a conducting surface, with the photon frequency given approximately by the mass of the hidden photon. Here, we report on experimental efforts that have started recently to search for such hidden photon Dark Matter in the (sub-)eV regime with a prototype mirror for the Auger fluorescence detector at the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology.

  8. Supersymmetry, p-brane duality, and hidden spacetime dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bars, I.

    1996-01-01

    A global superalgebra with 32 supercharges and all possible central extensions is studied in order to extract some general properties of duality and hidden dimensions in a theory that treats p-branes democratically. The maximal number of dimensions is 12, with signature (10,2), containing one space and one time dimension that are hidden from the point of view of perturbative ten-dimensional string theory or its compactifications. When the theory is compactified on R d-1,1 circle-times T c+1,1 with d+c+2=12, there are isometry groups that relate to the hidden dimensions as well as to duality. Their combined intersecting classification schemes provide some properties of nonperturbative states and their couplings. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  9. A single hidden layer feedforward network with only one neuron in the hidden layer can approximate any univariate function

    OpenAIRE

    Guliyev , Namig; Ismailov , Vugar

    2016-01-01

    The possibility of approximating a continuous function on a compact subset of the real line by a feedforward single hidden layer neural network with a sigmoidal activation function has been studied in many papers. Such networks can approximate an arbitrary continuous function provided that an unlimited number of neurons in a hidden layer is permitted. In this paper, we consider constructive approximation on any finite interval of $\\mathbb{R}$ by neural networks with only one neuron in the hid...

  10. Discovering hidden sectors with monophoton Z' searches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershtein, Yuri; Petriello, Frank; Quackenbush, Seth; Zurek, Kathryn M.

    2008-01-01

    In many theories of physics beyond the standard model, from extra dimensions to Hidden Valleys and models of dark matter, Z ' bosons mediate between standard model particles and hidden sector states. We study the feasibility of observing such hidden states through an invisibly decaying Z ' at the LHC. We focus on the process pp→γZ ' →γXX † , where X is any neutral, (quasi-) stable particle, whether a standard model neutrino or a new state. This complements a previous study using pp→ZZ ' →l + l - XX † . Only the Z ' mass and two effective charges are needed to describe this process. If the Z ' decays invisibly only to standard model neutrinos, then these charges are predicted by observation of the Z ' through the Drell-Yan process, allowing discrimination between Z ' decays to standard model ν's and invisible decays to new states. We carefully discuss all backgrounds and systematic errors that affect this search. We find that hidden sector decays of a 1 TeV Z ' can be observed at 5σ significance with 50 fb -1 at the LHC. Observation of a 1.5 TeV state requires super-LHC statistics of 1 ab -1 . Control of the systematic errors, in particular, the parton distribution function uncertainty of the dominant Zγ background, is crucial to maximize the LHC search reach.

  11. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  12. Child Abuse: The Hidden Bruises

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for Families - Vietnamese Spanish Facts for Families Guide Child Abuse - The Hidden Bruises No. 5; Updated November 2014 The statistics on physical child abuse are alarming. It is estimated hundreds of thousands ...

  13. Learning and inference in a nonequilibrium Ising model with hidden nodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Benjamin; Roudi, Yasser

    2013-02-01

    We study inference and reconstruction of couplings in a partially observed kinetic Ising model. With hidden spins, calculating the likelihood of a sequence of observed spin configurations requires performing a trace over the configurations of the hidden ones. This, as we show, can be represented as a path integral. Using this representation, we demonstrate that systematic approximate inference and learning rules can be derived using dynamical mean-field theory. Although naive mean-field theory leads to an unstable learning rule, taking into account Gaussian corrections allows learning the couplings involving hidden nodes. It also improves learning of the couplings between the observed nodes compared to when hidden nodes are ignored.

  14. Serum uric acid and acute kidney injury: A mini review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Hahn

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury causes great morbidity and mortality in both the community and hospital settings. Understanding the etiological factors and the pathophysiological principles resulting in acute kidney injury is essential in prompting appropriate therapies. Recently hyperuricemia has been recognized as a potentially modifiable risk factor for acute kidney injury, including that associated with cardiovascular surgery, radiocontrast administration, rhabdomyolysis, and associated with heat stress. This review discussed the evidence that repeated episodes of acute kidney injury from heat stress and dehydration may also underlie the pathogenesis of the chronic kidney disease epidemic that is occurring in Central America (Mesoamerican nephropathy. Potential mechanisms for how uric acid might contribute to acute kidney injury are also discussed, including systemic effects on renal microvasculature and hemodynamics, and local crystalline and noncrystalline effects on the renal tubules. Pilot clinical trials also show potential benefits of lowering uric acid on acute kidney injury associated with a variety of insults. In summary, there is mounting evidence that hyperuricemia may have a significant role in the development of acute kidney injury. Prospective, placebo controlled, randomized trials are needed to determine the potential benefit of uric acid lowering therapy on kidney and cardio-metabolic diseases.

  15. Analysing the hidden curriculum: use of a cultural web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossop, Liz; Dennick, Reg; Hammond, Richard; Robbé, Iain

    2013-02-01

    Major influences on learning about medical professionalism come from the hidden curriculum. These influences can contribute positively or negatively towards the professional enculturation of clinical students. The fact that there is no validated method for identifying the components of the hidden curriculum poses problems for educators considering professionalism. The aim of this study was to analyse whether a cultural web, adapted from a business context, might assist in the identification of elements of the hidden curriculum at a UK veterinary school. A qualitative approach was used. Seven focus groups consisting of three staff groups and four student groups were organised. Questioning was framed using the cultural web, which is a model used by business owners to assess their environment and consider how it affects their employees and customers. The focus group discussions were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically using a combination of a priori and emergent themes. The cultural web identified elements of the hidden curriculum for both students and staff. These included: core assumptions; routines; rituals; control systems; organisational factors; power structures, and symbols. Discussions occurred about how and where these issues may affect students' professional identity development. The cultural web framework functioned well to help participants identify elements of the hidden curriculum. These aspects aligned broadly with previously described factors such as role models and institutional slang. The influence of these issues on a student's development of a professional identity requires discussion amongst faculty staff, and could be used to develop learning opportunities for students. The framework is promising for the analysis of the hidden curriculum and could be developed as an instrument for implementation in other clinical teaching environments. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2013.

  16. Anticipating hidden text salting in emails (extended abstract)

    OpenAIRE

    Lioma, Christina; Moens, Marie-Francine; Gomez, Juan Carlos; De Beer, Jan; Bergholz, Andre; Paass, Gerhard; Horkan, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    Salting is the intentional addition or distortion of content, aimed to evade automatic filtering. Salting is usually found in spam emails. Salting can also be hidden in phishing emails, which aim to steal personal information from users. We present a novel method that detects hidden salting tricks as visual anomalies in text. We solely use these salting tricks to successfully classify emails as phishing (F-measure >90%).

  17. Complicated basins and the phenomenon of amplitude death in coupled hidden attractors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaudhuri, Ushnish [Department of Physics, Sri Venkateswara College, University of Delhi, New Delhi 110021 (India); Department of Physics, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117551 (Singapore); Prasad, Awadhesh, E-mail: awadhesh@physics.du.ac.in [Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007 (India)

    2014-02-07

    Understanding hidden attractors, whose basins of attraction do not contain the neighborhood of equilibrium of the system, are important in many physical applications. We observe riddled-like complicated basins of coexisting hidden attractors both in coupled and uncoupled systems. Amplitude death is observed in coupled hidden attractors with no fixed point using nonlinear interaction. A new route to amplitude death is observed in time-delay coupled hidden attractors. Numerical results are presented for systems with no or one stable fixed point. The applications are highlighted.

  18. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  19. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Masato; Kawai, Shinsuke; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-01-01

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5 minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  20. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, Masato; Kawai, Shinsuke; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-02-01

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5¯ minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  1. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  2. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  3. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-08

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  4. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-01

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  5. Quantum mechanics and hidden superconformal symmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonezzi, R.; Corradini, O.; Latini, E.; Waldron, A.

    2017-12-01

    Solvability of the ubiquitous quantum harmonic oscillator relies on a spectrum generating osp (1 |2 ) superconformal symmetry. We study the problem of constructing all quantum mechanical models with a hidden osp (1 |2 ) symmetry on a given space of states. This problem stems from interacting higher spin models coupled to gravity. In one dimension, we show that the solution to this problem is the Vasiliev-Plyushchay family of quantum mechanical models with hidden superconformal symmetry obtained by viewing the harmonic oscillator as a one dimensional Dirac system, so that Grassmann parity equals wave function parity. These models—both oscillator and particlelike—realize all possible unitary irreducible representations of osp (1 |2 ).

  6. Hidden simplicity of gauge theory amplitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drummond, J M, E-mail: drummond@lapp.in2p3.f [LAPTH, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, B.P. 110, F-74941 Annecy-le-Vieux, Cedex (France)

    2010-11-07

    These notes were given as lectures at the CERN Winter School on Supergravity, Strings and Gauge Theory 2010. We describe the structure of scattering amplitudes in gauge theories, focussing on the maximally supersymmetric theory to highlight the hidden symmetries which appear. Using the Britto, Cachzo, Feng and Witten (BCFW) recursion relations we solve the tree-level S-matrix in N=4 super Yang-Mills theory and describe how it produces a sum of invariants of a large symmetry algebra. We review amplitudes in the planar theory beyond tree level, describing the connection between amplitudes and Wilson loops, and discuss the implications of the hidden symmetries.

  7. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  8. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  9. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  10. Update on hidden sectors with dark forces and dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreas, Sarah

    2012-11-15

    Recently there has been much interest in hidden sectors, especially in the context of dark matter and ''dark forces'', since they are a common feature of beyond standard model scenarios like string theory and SUSY and additionally exhibit interesting phenomenological aspects. Various laboratory experiments place limits on the so-called hidden photon and continuously further probe and constrain the parameter space; an updated overview is presented here. Furthermore, for several hidden sector models with light dark matter we study the viability with respect to the relic abundance and direct detection experiments.

  11. Searching for hidden sectors in multiparticle production at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Sanchis-Lozano, Miguel-Angel; Moreno-Picot, Salvador

    2016-01-01

    We study the impact of a hidden sector beyond the Standard Model, e.g. a Hidden Valley model, on factorial moments and cumulants of multiplicity distributions in multiparticle production with a special emphasis on the prospects for LHC results.

  12. Secret Codes: The Hidden Curriculum of Semantic Web Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Richard; Carmichael, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    There is a long tradition in education of examination of the hidden curriculum, those elements which are implicit or tacit to the formal goals of education. This article draws upon that tradition to open up for investigation the hidden curriculum and assumptions about students and knowledge that are embedded in the coding undertaken to facilitate…

  13. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  14. State-space dimensionality in short-memory hidden-variable theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montina, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    Recently we have presented a hidden-variable model of measurements for a qubit where the hidden-variable state-space dimension is one-half the quantum-state manifold dimension. The absence of a short memory (Markov) dynamics is the price paid for this dimensional reduction. The conflict between having the Markov property and achieving the dimensional reduction was proved by Montina [A. Montina, Phys. Rev. A 77, 022104 (2008)] using an additional hypothesis of trajectory relaxation. Here we analyze in more detail this hypothesis introducing the concept of invertible process and report a proof that makes clearer the role played by the topology of the hidden-variable space. This is accomplished by requiring suitable properties of regularity of the conditional probability governing the dynamics. In the case of minimal dimension the set of continuous hidden variables is identified with an object living an N-dimensional Hilbert space whose dynamics is described by the Schroedinger equation. A method for generating the economical non-Markovian model for the qubit is also presented.

  15. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  16. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  17. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  18. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  19. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  20. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  1. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  2. Dopamine reward prediction errors reflect hidden state inference across time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starkweather, Clara Kwon; Babayan, Benedicte M.; Uchida, Naoshige; Gershman, Samuel J.

    2017-01-01

    Midbrain dopamine neurons signal reward prediction error (RPE), or actual minus expected reward. The temporal difference (TD) learning model has been a cornerstone in understanding how dopamine RPEs could drive associative learning. Classically, TD learning imparts value to features that serially track elapsed time relative to observable stimuli. In the real world, however, sensory stimuli provide ambiguous information about the hidden state of the environment, leading to the proposal that TD learning might instead compute a value signal based on an inferred distribution of hidden states (a ‘belief state’). In this work, we asked whether dopaminergic signaling supports a TD learning framework that operates over hidden states. We found that dopamine signaling exhibited a striking difference between two tasks that differed only with respect to whether reward was delivered deterministically. Our results favor an associative learning rule that combines cached values with hidden state inference. PMID:28263301

  3. Higher-dimensional black holes: hidden symmetries and separation of variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frolov, Valeri P; Kubiznak, David

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss hidden symmetries in rotating black hole spacetimes. We start with an extended introduction which mainly summarizes results on hidden symmetries in four dimensions and introduces Killing and Killing-Yano tensors, objects responsible for hidden symmetries. We also demonstrate how starting with a principal CKY tensor (that is a closed non-degenerate conformal Killing-Yano 2-form) in 4D flat spacetime one can 'generate' the 4D Kerr-NUT-(A)dS solution and its hidden symmetries. After this we consider higher-dimensional Kerr-NUT-(A)dS metrics and demonstrate that they possess a principal CKY tensor which allows one to generate the whole tower of Killing-Yano and Killing tensors. These symmetries imply complete integrability of geodesic equations and complete separation of variables for the Hamilton-Jacobi, Klein-Gordon and Dirac equations in the general Kerr-NUT-(A)dS metrics

  4. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  5. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  6. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  7. Extended abstract of a hidden agenda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goguen, J.; Malcolm, G. [Oxford Univ. (United Kingdom)

    1996-12-31

    The initial goal of our hidden research programme was both straightforward and ambitious: give a semantics for software engineering, and in particular for the object paradigm, supporting correctness proofs that are as simple and mechanical as possible. This emphasizes proofs rather than models, and thus suggests an equational approach, rather than one based on higher order logic, denotational semantics, or any kind of model, because equational proofs achieve maximal simplicity and mechanization, and yet are fully expressive. We introduce powerful coinduction techniques for proving behavioral properties of complex systems. We make the no doubt outrageous claim that our hidden approach gives simpler proofs than other formalisms; this is because we exploit algebraic structure that most other approaches discard.

  8. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

  9. Photoacoustic imaging of hidden dental caries by using a fiber-based probing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koyama, Takuya; Kakino, Satoko; Matsuura, Yuji

    2017-04-01

    Photoacoustic method to detect hidden dental caries is proposed. It was found that high frequency ultrasonic waves are generated from hidden carious part when radiating laser light to occlusal surface of model tooth. By making a map of intensity of these high frequency components, photoacoustic images of hidden caries were successfully obtained. A photoacoustic imaging system using a bundle of hollow optical fiber was fabricated for using clinical application, and clear photoacoustic image of hidden caries was also obtained by this system.

  10. A hidden history

    OpenAIRE

    Peppers, Emily

    2008-01-01

    The Cultural Collections Audit project began at the University of Edinburgh in 2004, searching for hidden treasures in its 'distributed heritage collections' across the university. The objects and collections recorded in the Audit ranged widely from fine art and furniture to historical scientific and teaching equipment and personalia relating to key figures in the university's long tradition of academic excellence. This information was gathered in order to create a central database of informa...

  11. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  12. Life imitating art: depictions of the hidden curriculum in medical television programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanek, Agatha; Clarkin, Chantalle; Bould, M Dylan; Writer, Hilary; Doja, Asif

    2015-09-26

    The hidden curriculum represents influences occurring within the culture of medicine that indirectly alter medical professionals' interactions, beliefs and clinical practices throughout their training. One approach to increase medical student awareness of the hidden curriculum is to provide them with readily available examples of how it is enacted in medicine; as such the purpose of this study was to examine depictions of the hidden curriculum in popular medical television programs. One full season of ER, Grey's Anatomy and Scrubs were selected for review. A summative content analysis was performed to ascertain the presence of depictions of the hidden curriculum, as well as to record the type, frequency and quality of examples. A second reviewer also viewed a random selection of episodes from each series to establish coding reliability. The most prevalent themes across all television programs were: the hierarchical nature of medicine; challenges during transitional stages in medicine; the importance of role modeling; patient dehumanization; faking or overstating one's capabilities; unprofessionalism; the loss of idealism; and difficulties with work-life balance. The hidden curriculum is frequently depicted in popular medical television shows. These examples of the hidden curriculum could serve as a valuable teaching resource in undergraduate medical programs.

  13. Rare Z boson decays to a hidden sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blinov, Nikita; Izaguirre, Eder; Shuve, Brian

    2018-01-01

    We demonstrate that rare decays of the Standard Model Z boson can be used to discover and characterize the nature of new hidden-sector particles. We propose new searches for these particles in soft, high-multiplicity leptonic final states at the Large Hadron Collider. The proposed searches are sensitive to low-mass particles produced in Z decays, and we argue that these striking signatures can shed light on the hidden-sector couplings and mechanism for mass generation.

  14. The Consensus String Problem and the Complexity of Comparing Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyngsø, Rune Bang; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm

    2002-01-01

    The basic theory of hidden Markov models was developed and applied to problems in speech recognition in the late 1960s, and has since then been applied to numerous problems, e.g. biological sequence analysis. Most applications of hidden Markov models are based on efficient algorithms for computing...... the probability of generating a given string, or computing the most likely path generating a given string. In this paper we consider the problem of computing the most likely string, or consensus string, generated by a given model, and its implications on the complexity of comparing hidden Markov models. We show...... that computing the consensus string, and approximating its probability within any constant factor, is NP-hard, and that the same holds for the closely related labeling problem for class hidden Markov models. Furthermore, we establish the NP-hardness of comparing two hidden Markov models under the L∞- and L1...

  15. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  16. Cosmological abundance of the QCD axion coupled to hidden photons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitajima, Naoya; Sekiguchi, Toyokazu; Takahashi, Fuminobu

    2018-06-01

    We study the cosmological evolution of the QCD axion coupled to hidden photons. For a moderately strong coupling, the motion of the axion field leads to an explosive production of hidden photons by tachyonic instability. We use lattice simulations to evaluate the cosmological abundance of the QCD axion. In doing so, we incorporate the backreaction of the produced hidden photons on the axion dynamics, which becomes significant in the non-linear regime. We find that the axion abundance is suppressed by at most O (102) for the decay constant fa =1016GeV, compared to the case without the coupling. For a sufficiently large coupling, the motion of the QCD axion becomes strongly damped, and as a result, the axion abundance is enhanced. Our results show that the cosmological upper bound on the axion decay constant can be relaxed by a few hundred for a certain range of the coupling to hidden photons.

  17. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  18. Low-scale gravity mediation in warped extra dimension and collider phenomenology on hidden sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, H.; Okada, N.; Yamashita, T.

    2007-01-01

    We propose a new scenario of gravity-mediated supersymmetry breaking (gravity mediation) in a supersymmetric Randall-Sundrum model, where the gravity mediation takes place at a low scale due to the warped metric. We investigate collider phenomenology involving the hidden sector field, and find a possibility that the hidden sector field can be produced at the LHC and the ILC. The hidden sector may no longer be hidden. (author)

  19. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  20. Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

    2016-04-01

    There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

  1. Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

    2016-04-01

    There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

  2. Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

    2017-10-01

    The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

  3. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  4. An impossibility theorem for parameter independent hidden variable theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leegwater, Gijs

    2016-05-01

    Recently, Roger Colbeck and Renato Renner (C&R) have claimed that '[n]o extension of quantum theory can have improved predictive power' (Colbeck & Renner, 2011, 2012b). If correct, this is a spectacular impossibility theorem for hidden variable theories, which is more general than the theorems of Bell (1964) and Leggett (2003). Also, C&R have used their claim in attempt to prove that a system's quantum-mechanical wave function is in a one-to-one correspondence with its 'ontic' state (Colbeck & Renner, 2012a). C&R's claim essentially means that in any hidden variable theory that is compatible with quantum-mechanical predictions, probabilities of measurement outcomes are independent of these hidden variables. This makes such variables otiose. On closer inspection, however, the generality and validity of the claim can be contested. First, it is based on an assumption called 'Freedom of Choice'. As the name suggests, this assumption involves the independence of an experimenter's choice of measurement settings. But in the way C&R define this assumption, a no-signalling condition is surreptitiously presupposed, making the assumption less innocent than it sounds. When using this definition, any hidden variable theory violating parameter independence, such as Bohmian Mechanics, is immediately shown to be incompatible with quantum-mechanical predictions. Also, the argument of C&R is hard to follow and their mathematical derivation contains several gaps, some of which cannot be closed in the way they suggest. We shall show that these gaps can be filled. The issue with the 'Freedom of Choice' assumption can be circumvented by explicitly assuming parameter independence. This makes the result less general, but better founded. We then obtain an impossibility theorem for hidden variable theories satisfying parameter independence only. As stated above, such hidden variable theories are impossible in the sense that any supplemental variables have no bearing on outcome probabilities

  5. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

  6. Entry deterrence and hidden competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lavrutich, Maria; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter

    This paper studies strategic investment behavior of firms facing an uncertain demand in a duopoly setting. Firms choose both investment timing and the capacity level while facing additional uncertainty about market participants, which is introduced via the concept of hidden competition. We focus on

  7. Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....

  8. Applications of hidden symmetries to black hole physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frolov, Valeri

    2011-01-01

    This work is a brief review of applications of hidden symmetries to black hole physics. Symmetry is one of the most important concepts of the science. In physics and mathematics the symmetry allows one to simplify a problem, and often to make it solvable. According to the Noether theorem symmetries are responsible for conservation laws. Besides evident (explicit) spacetime symmetries, responsible for conservation of energy, momentum, and angular momentum of a system, there also exist what is called hidden symmetries, which are connected with higher order in momentum integrals of motion. A remarkable fact is that black holes in four and higher dimensions always possess a set ('tower') of explicit and hidden symmetries which make the equations of motion of particles and light completely integrable. The paper gives a general review of the recently obtained results. The main focus is on understanding why at all black holes have something (symmetry) to hide.

  9. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  10. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel G. Muñoz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  11. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  12. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  13. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  14. Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

    2015-11-01

    Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

  15. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  16. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  17. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  18. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  19. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

    2008-01-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

  20. Detecting Hidden Hierarchy of Non Hierarchical Terrorist Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Memon, Nasrullah

    measures (and combinations of them) to identify key players (important nodes) in terrorist networks. Our recently introduced techniques and algorithms (which are also implemented in the investigative data mining toolkit known as iMiner) will be particularly useful for law enforcement agencies that need...... to analyze terrorist networks and prioritize their targets. Applying recently introduced mathematical methods for constructing the hidden hierarchy of "nonhierarchical" terrorist networks; we present case studies of the terrorist attacks occurred / planned in the past, in order to identify hidden hierarchy...

  1. The need for data science in epidemic modelling. Comment on: "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danon, Leon; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen

    2016-09-01

    In their review, Chowell et al. consider the ability of mathematical models to predict early epidemic growth [1]. In particular, they question the central prediction of classical differential equation models that the number of cases grows exponentially during the early stages of an epidemic. Using examples including HIV and Ebola, they argue that classical models fail to capture key qualitative features of early growth and describe a selection of models that do capture non-exponential epidemic growth. An implication of this failure is that predictions may be inaccurate and unusable, highlighting the need for care when embarking upon modelling using classical methodology. There remains a lack of understanding of the mechanisms driving many observed epidemic patterns; we argue that data science should form a fundamental component of epidemic modelling, providing a rigorous methodology for data-driven approaches, rather than trying to enforce established frameworks. The need for refinement of classical models provides a strong argument for the use of data science, to identify qualitative characteristics and pinpoint the mechanisms responsible for the observed epidemic patterns.

  2. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  3. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  4. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  5. Signatures of a hidden cosmic microwave background.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeckel, Joerg; Redondo, Javier; Ringwald, Andreas

    2008-09-26

    If there is a light Abelian gauge boson gamma' in the hidden sector its kinetic mixing with the photon can produce a hidden cosmic microwave background (HCMB). For meV masses, resonant oscillations gammagamma' happen after big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) but before CMB decoupling, increasing the effective number of neutrinos Nnu(eff) and the baryon to photon ratio, and distorting the CMB blackbody spectrum. The agreement between BBN and CMB data provides new constraints. However, including Lyman-alpha data, Nnu(eff) > 3 is preferred. It is tempting to attribute this effect to the HCMB. The interesting parameter range will be tested in upcoming laboratory experiments.

  6. Hidden inventory and safety considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, A.R.; James, R.H.; Morgan, F.

    1976-01-01

    Preliminary results are described of the evaluation of residual plutonium in a process line used for the production of experimental fast reactor fuel. Initial attention has been focussed on a selection of work boxes used for processing powders and solutions. Amounts of material measured as ''hidden inventory'' are generally less than 0.1 percent of throughput but in one box containing very complex equipment the amount was exceptionally about 0.5 percent. The total surface area of the box and the installed equipment appears to be the most significant factor in determining the amount of plutonium held-up as ''hidden inventory,'' representing an average of about 4 x 10 -4 g cm -2 . Present results are based on gamma spectrometer measurements but neutron techniques are being developed to overcome some of the inherent uncertainties in the gamma method. It is suggested that the routine use of sample plates of known surface area would be valuable in monitoring the deposition of plutonium in work boxes

  7. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  8. Hidden School Dropout among Immigrant Students: A Cross-Sectional Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarova, Elena; Herzog, Walter

    2013-01-01

    Actual school dropout among immigrant youth has been addressed in a number of studies, but research on hidden school dropout among immigrant students is rare. Thus, the objective of this paper is to analyze hidden school dropout among primary school students with an immigrant background. The analyses were performed using survey data of 1186…

  9. An excess of pedestrian injuries in icy conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merrild, Ulrik; Bak, Soeren

    1983-01-01

    An "icy condition epidemic" has been analyzed in an investigation of patients treated in the casualty department of Odense University Hospital: it was found that the victims were mainly comprised of pedestrians and that the pedestrians had 14 times more injuries than during a normal winter period...... clearing of the snow, and (3) spreading of sand, and possibly salt, on footpaths and bicycle paths. Specific measures should be launched to help the elderly during such periods, in order that outdoor activities may be cut to a minimum....

  10. WIMPless dark matter from non-Abelian hidden sectors with anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Jonathan L.; Shadmi, Yael

    2011-01-01

    In anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking models, superpartner masses are proportional to couplings squared. Their hidden sectors therefore naturally contain WIMPless dark matter, particles whose thermal relic abundance is guaranteed to be of the correct size, even though they are not weakly interacting massive particles. We study viable dark matter candidates in WIMPless anomaly-mediated supersymmetry breaking models with non-Abelian hidden sectors and highlight unusual possibilities that emerge in even the simplest models. In one example with a pure SU(N) hidden sector, stable hidden gluinos freeze out with the correct relic density, but have an extremely low, but natural, confinement scale, providing a framework for self-interacting dark matter. In another simple scenario, hidden gluinos freeze out and decay to visible Winos with the correct relic density, and hidden glueballs may either be stable, providing a natural framework for mixed cold-hot dark matter, or may decay, yielding astrophysical signals. Last, we present a model with light hidden pions that may be tested with improved constraints on the number of nonrelativistic degrees of freedom. All of these scenarios are defined by a small number of parameters, are consistent with gauge coupling unification, preserve the beautiful connection between the weak scale and the observed dark matter relic density, and are natural, with relatively light visible superpartners. We conclude with comments on interesting future directions.

  11. A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéfan Tzortzis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

  12. Academic mobbing: hidden health hazard at workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Sb

    2010-01-01

    Academic mobbing is a non-violent, sophisticated, 'ganging up' behaviour adopted by academicians to "wear and tear" a colleague down emotionally through unjustified accusation, humiliation, general harassment and emotional abuse. These are directed at the target under a veil of lies and justifications so that they are "hidden" to others and difficult to prove. Bullies use mobbing activities to hide their own weaknesses and incompetence. Targets selected are often intelligent, innovative high achievers, with good integrity and principles. Mobbing activities appear trivial and innocuous on its own but the frequency and pattern of their occurrence over long period of time indicates an aggressive manipulation to "eliminate" the target. Mobbing activities typically progress through five stereotypical phases that begins with an unsolved minor conflict between two workers and ultimately escalates into a senseless mobbing whereby the target is stigmatized and victimized to justify the behaviours of the bullies. The result is always physical, mental, social distress or illness and, most often, expulsion of target from the workplace. Organizations are subjected to great financial loss, loss of key workers and a tarnished public image and reputation. Public awareness, education, effective counselling, establishment of anti-bullying policies and legislations at all levels are necessary to curb academic mobbing. General practitioners (GPs) play an important role in supporting patients subjected to mental and physical health injury caused by workplace bullying and mobbing.

  13. On the hidden maxwell superalgebra underlying D = 4 supergravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penafiel, D.M. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Concepcion (Chile); DISAT, Politecnico di Torino (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Sezione di Torino (Italy); Ravera, L. [DISAT, Politecnico di Torino (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Sezione di Torino (Italy)

    2017-09-15

    In this work, we expand the hidden AdS-Lorentz superalgebra underlying D = 4 supergravity, reaching a (hidden) Maxwell superalgebra. The latter can be viewed as an extension involving cosmological constant of the superalgebra underlying D = 4 supergravity in flat spacetime. We write the Maurer-Cartan equations in this context and we find some interesting extensions of the antisymmetric 3-form A{sup (3)} appearing in the Free Differential Algebra in Minkowski space. The structure of Free Differential Algebras is obtained by considering the zero curvature equations. We write the parametrization of A{sup (3)} in terms of 1-forms and we rend the topological features of its extensions manifest. We interestingly find out that the structure of these extensions, and consequently the structure of the corresponding boundary contribution dA{sup (3)}, strongly depends on the form of the extra fermionic generator appearing in the hidden Maxwell superalgebra. The model we develop in this work is defined in an enlarged superspace with respect to the ordinary one, and the extra bosonic and fermionic 1-forms required for the closure of the hidden Maxwell superalgebra must be considered as physical fields in this enlarged superspace. (copyright 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  14. The Hidden Dimensions of Databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacso, Peter

    1994-01-01

    Discusses methods of evaluating commercial online databases and provides examples that illustrate their hidden dimensions. Topics addressed include size, including the number of records or the number of titles; the number of years covered; and the frequency of updates. Comparisons of Readers' Guide Abstracts and Magazine Article Summaries are…

  15. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  16. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  17. Low-intensity interference effects and hidden-variable theories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buonomano, V [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Brazil). Inst. de Matematica

    1978-05-11

    The double-slit interference experiment and other similar experiments in the low-intensity limit (that is, one photon in the apparatus at a time) are examined in the spirit of Bell's work from the point of view of hidden-variable theories. It is found that there exists a class of hidden-variable theories which disagrees with quantum mechanics for a certain type of interference experiment. A manufactured conceptualization of this class, which is a particle view of interference, is described. An experiment, which appears to be feasible, is proposed to examine this disagreement.

  18. Application of Hidden Markov Models in Biomolecular Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Saurabh; Shamsi, Zahra; Moffett, Alexander S; Selvam, Balaji; Shukla, Diwakar

    2017-01-01

    Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide a framework to analyze large trajectories of biomolecular simulation datasets. HMMs decompose the conformational space of a biological molecule into finite number of states that interconvert among each other with certain rates. HMMs simplify long timescale trajectories for human comprehension, and allow comparison of simulations with experimental data. In this chapter, we provide an overview of building HMMs for analyzing bimolecular simulation datasets. We demonstrate the procedure for building a Hidden Markov model for Met-enkephalin peptide simulation dataset and compare the timescales of the process.

  19. Detecting Faults By Use Of Hidden Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Padhraic J.

    1995-01-01

    Frequency of false alarms reduced. Faults in complicated dynamic system (e.g., antenna-aiming system, telecommunication network, or human heart) detected automatically by method of automated, continuous monitoring. Obtains time-series data by sampling multiple sensor outputs at discrete intervals of t and processes data via algorithm determining whether system in normal or faulty state. Algorithm implements, among other things, hidden first-order temporal Markov model of states of system. Mathematical model of dynamics of system not needed. Present method is "prior" method mentioned in "Improved Hidden-Markov-Model Method of Detecting Faults" (NPO-18982).

  20. From the solar system fo hidden cosmic structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benes, K

    1987-01-01

    The development of experimental astrophysics showed that in the evolution of planets, natural processes of a common nature take place. They include, e.g., radiogenic heat, the production of magmas, volcanic activity, degassing, etc. The solar system is a cosmic formation in an advanced stage of development and it is a realistic assumption that in the Galaxy other hidden planetary systems in various stages of development exist. The views on the possibility of the origination of life in other systems differ; life, however, is seen as a hidden property of cosmic matter. (M.D.).

  1. Search for hidden Higgs decay in ATLAS detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabrielli, A.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a brief overview of the search for the Higgs boson in Hidden Valley models is given. Hidden Valley models predict Higgs decays to neutral particles, which can be also long lived with decay paths comparable to the LHC detectors dimensions. Decay final states consist of collimated leptons (Lepton Jets). Results are presented of a search for Higgs decays to long lived particles in the ATLAS detector at the LHC, based on 1.92 fb −1 data collected during 2011 at a 7TeV center-of-mass energy.

  2. Dissipative hidden sector dark matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foot, R.; Vagnozzi, S.

    2015-01-01

    A simple way of explaining dark matter without modifying known Standard Model physics is to require the existence of a hidden (dark) sector, which interacts with the visible one predominantly via gravity. We consider a hidden sector containing two stable particles charged under an unbroken U (1 )' gauge symmetry, hence featuring dissipative interactions. The massless gauge field associated with this symmetry, the dark photon, can interact via kinetic mixing with the ordinary photon. In fact, such an interaction of strength ε ˜10-9 appears to be necessary in order to explain galactic structure. We calculate the effect of this new physics on big bang nucleosynthesis and its contribution to the relativistic energy density at hydrogen recombination. We then examine the process of dark recombination, during which neutral dark states are formed, which is important for large-scale structure formation. Galactic structure is considered next, focusing on spiral and irregular galaxies. For these galaxies we modeled the dark matter halo (at the current epoch) as a dissipative plasma of dark matter particles, where the energy lost due to dissipation is compensated by the energy produced from ordinary supernovae (the core-collapse energy is transferred to the hidden sector via kinetic mixing induced processes in the supernova core). We find that such a dynamical halo model can reproduce several observed features of disk galaxies, including the cored density profile and the Tully-Fisher relation. We also discuss how elliptical and dwarf spheroidal galaxies could fit into this picture. Finally, these analyses are combined to set bounds on the parameter space of our model, which can serve as a guideline for future experimental searches.

  3. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Hidden twelve-dimensional super Poincare symmetry in eleven dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bars, Itzhak; Deliduman, Cemsinan; Pasqua, Andrea; Zumino, Bruno

    2004-01-01

    First, we review a result in our previous paper, of how a ten-dimensional superparticle, taken off-shell, has a hidden eleven-dimensional super Poincare symmetry. Then, we show that the physical sector is defined by three first-class constraints which preserve the full eleven-dimensional symmetry. Applying the same concepts to the eleven-dimensional superparticle, taken off-shell, we discover a hidden twelve-dimensional super Poincare symmetry that governs the theory

  5. Electroweak-charged bound states as LHC probes of hidden forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lingfeng; Salvioni, Ennio; Tsai, Yuhsin; Zheng, Rui

    2018-01-01

    We explore the LHC reach on beyond-the-standard model (BSM) particles X associated with a new strong force in a hidden sector. We focus on the motivated scenario where the SM and hidden sectors are connected by fermionic mediators ψ+,0 that carry SM electroweak charges. The most promising signal is the Drell-Yan production of a ψ±ψ¯ 0 pair, which forms an electrically charged vector bound state ϒ± due to the hidden force and later undergoes resonant annihilation into W±X . We analyze this final state in detail in the cases where X is a real scalar ϕ that decays to b b ¯, or a dark photon γd that decays to dileptons. For prompt X decays, we show that the corresponding signatures can be efficiently probed by extending the existing ATLAS and CMS diboson searches to include heavy resonance decays into BSM particles. For long-lived X , we propose new searches where the requirement of a prompt hard lepton originating from the W boson ensures triggering and essentially removes any SM backgrounds. To illustrate the potential of our results, we interpret them within two explicit models that contain strong hidden forces and electroweak-charged mediators, namely λ -supersymmetry (SUSY) and non-SUSY ultraviolet extensions of the twin Higgs model. The resonant nature of the signals allows for the reconstruction of the mass of both ϒ± and X , thus providing a wealth of information about the hidden sector.

  6. Application of ANNS in tube CHF prediction: effect on neuron number in hidden layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, L.; Shan, J.; Zhang, B.

    2004-01-01

    Prediction of the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) for upward flow of water in uniformly heated vertical round tube is studied with Artificial Neuron Networks (ANNs) method utilizing different neuron number in hidden layers. This study is based on thermal equilibrium conditions. The neuron number in hidden layers is chosen to vary from 5 to 30 with the step of 5. The effect due to the variety of the neuron number in hidden layers is analyzed. The analysis shows that the neuron number in hidden layers should be appropriate, too less will affect the prediction accuracy and too much may result in abnormal parametric trends. It is concluded that the appropriate neuron number in two hidden layers should be [15 15]. (authors)

  7. UV Photography Shows Hidden Sun Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... mcat1=de12", ]; for (var c = 0; c UV photography shows hidden sun damage A UV photograph gives ... developing skin cancer and prematurely aged skin. Normal photography UV photography 18 months of age: This boy's ...

  8. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  9. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

    2014-01-01

    Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

  10. Canine distemper virus infection among wildlife before and after the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Junko; Nishio, Yohei; Kameo, Yuki; Terada, Yutaka; Kuwata, Ryusei; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kazuo; Maeda, Ken

    2015-11-01

    In 2007-2008, a canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic occurred among wild animals in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, and many mammals, including the wild boar and deer, were infected. In this study, CDV prevalence among wild animals was surveyed before and after the epidemic. At first, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with horseradish peroxidase-conjugated protein A/G was established to detect CDV antibodies in many mammalian species. This established ELISA was available for testing dogs, raccoons and raccoon dogs as well as virus-neutralization test. Next, a serological survey of wild mammalians was conducted, and it was indicated that many wild mammalians, particularly raccoons, were infected with CDV during the epidemic, but few were infected before and after the epidemic. On the other hand, many raccoon dogs died during the epidemic, but CDV remained prevalent in the remaining population, and a small epidemic occurred in raccoon dogs in 2012-2013. These results indicated that the epidemic of 2007-2008 may have been intensified by transmission to raccoons.

  11. Anomalies of hidden local chiral symmetries in sigma-models and extended supergravities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vecchia, P. di; Ferrara, S.; Girardello, L.

    1985-01-01

    Non-linear sigma-models with hidden gauge symmetries are anomalous, at the quantum level, when coupled to chiral fermions in not anomaly free representations of the hidden chiral symmetry. These considerations generally apply to supersymmetric kaehlerian sigma-models on coset spaces with hidden chiral symmetries as well as to extended supergravities in four dimensions with local SU(N) symmetry. The presence of the anomaly implies that the scenario of dynamical generation of gauge vector bosons has to be reconsidered in these theories. (orig.)

  12. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  13. MOSES: A Matlab-based open-source stochastic epidemic simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varol, Huseyin Atakan

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents an open-source stochastic epidemic simulator. Discrete Time Markov Chain based simulator is implemented in Matlab. The simulator capable of simulating SEQIJR (susceptible, exposed, quarantined, infected, isolated and recovered) model can be reduced to simpler models by setting some of the parameters (transition probabilities) to zero. Similarly, it can be extended to more complicated models by editing the source code. It is designed to be used for testing different control algorithms to contain epidemics. The simulator is also designed to be compatible with a network based epidemic simulator and can be used in the network based scheme for the simulation of a node. Simulations show the capability of reproducing different epidemic model behaviors successfully in a computationally efficient manner.

  14. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  15. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  16. Review of hidden carbon emissions, trade, and labor income share in China, 2001–2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shu-Hong; Song, Ma-Lin

    2014-01-01

    Coordinated development between the economy and the environment is currently one of the most important issues in China. By establishing models concerning labor income share and hidden carbon emissions, and taking trade as the link in their relationship, this study puts forward the scale effects, technological effects, and structural effects that relate to labor income share under the function of trade. We then establish multi-index and multi-indicator constitutive (MIMIC) equation to measure the ratio of hidden carbon emissions to total emissions, which is further considered the basis of the measurement model. Results of regression analysis carried out on labor income share show that hidden carbon emissions do have a positive effect on labor income share. In the meantime, we also prove that under scale effects, technological effects, and the structural effects of trade, hidden carbon emissions affect labor income shares in different directions. Our conclusions and policy implications are obtained from the calculated results. - Highlights: • This study establishes models concerning labor income share and hidden carbon emissions. • MIMIC is established to measure the ratio of hidden carbon emissions to total discharge. • Hidden carbon emissions have a positive effect on labor income share. • Hidden carbon emissions have various effects on the labor income share

  17. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2018-01-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

  18. The selection and implementation of hidden line algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, A.

    1983-06-01

    One of the most challenging problems in the field of computer graphics is the elimination of hidden lines in images of nontransparent bodies. In the real world the nontransparent material hinders the light ray coming from hidden regions to the observer. In the computer based image formation process there is no automatic visibility regulation of this kind. So many lines are created which result in a poor quality of the spacial representation. Therefore a three-dimensional representation on the screen is only meaningfull if the hidden lines are eliminated. For this process many algorithms have been developed in the past. A common feature of these codes is the large amount of computer time needed. In the first generation of algorithms, which are commonly used today, the bodies are modeled by plane polygons. More recently, however, also algorithms are in use, which are able to treat curved surfaces without discretisation by plane surfaces. In this paper the first group of algorithms is reviewed, and the most important codes are described. The experience obtained during the implementation of two algorithms is presented. (orig.) [de

  19. Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

  20. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  1. Hidden sector behind the CKM matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okawa, Shohei; Omura, Yuji

    2017-08-01

    The small quark mixing, described by the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix in the standard model, may be a clue to reveal new physics around the TeV scale. We consider a simple scenario that extra particles in a hidden sector radiatively mediate the flavor violation to the quark sector around the TeV scale and effectively realize the observed CKM matrix. The lightest particle in the hidden sector, whose contribution to the CKM matrix is expected to be dominant, is a good dark matter (DM) candidate. There are many possible setups to describe this scenario, so that we investigate some universal predictions of this kind of model, focusing on the contribution of DM to the quark mixing and flavor physics. In this scenario, there is an explicit relation between the CKM matrix and flavor violating couplings, such as four-quark couplings, because both are radiatively induced by the particles in the hidden sector. Then, we can explicitly find the DM mass region and the size of Yukawa couplings between the DM and quarks, based on the study of flavor physics and DM physics. In conclusion, we show that DM mass in our scenario is around the TeV scale, and the Yukawa couplings are between O (0.01 ) and O (1 ). The spin-independent DM scattering cross section is estimated as O (10-9) [pb]. An extra colored particle is also predicted at the O (10 ) TeV scale.

  2. Melamine nephrotoxicity: an emerging epidemic in an era of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhalla, Vivek; Grimm, Paul C; Chertow, Glenn M; Pao, Alan C

    2009-04-01

    Recent outbreaks of nephrolithiasis and acute kidney injury among children in China have been linked to ingestion of milk-based infant formula contaminated with melamine. These cases provide evidence in humans for the nephrotoxicity of melamine, which previously had been described only in animals. The consequences of this outbreak are already severe and will likely continue to worsen. Herein we summarize the global impact of the melamine milk contamination, the reemergence of melamine-tainted animal feed, and potential mechanisms of melamine nephrotoxicity. Large-scale epidemiologic studies are necessary to further characterize this disease and to assess its potential long-term sequelae. This epidemic of environmental kidney disease highlights the morbidity associated with adulterated food products available in today's global marketplace and reminds us of the unique vulnerability of the kidney to environmental insults. Melamine is the latest in a growing list of diverse potentially toxic compounds about which nephrologists and other health-care providers responsible for the diagnosis and management of kidney disease must now be aware.

  3. Laser experiments explore the hidden sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, M.

    2007-11-01

    Recently, the laser experiments BMV and GammeV, searching for light shining through walls, have published data and calculated new limits on the allowed masses and couplings for axion-like particles. In this note we point out that these experiments can serve to constrain a much wider variety of hidden-sector particles such as, e.g., minicharged particles and hidden-sector photons. The new experiments improve the existing bounds from the older BFRT experiment by a factor of two. Moreover, we use the new PVLAS constraints on a possible rotation and ellipticity of light after it has passed through a strong magnetic field to constrain pure minicharged particle models. For masses -7 times the electron electric charge. This is the best laboratory bound and comparable to bounds inferred from the energy spectrum of the cosmic microwave background. (orig.)

  4. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  5. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  6. Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DaSilva, Joaquim; Garanganga, Brad; Teveredzi, Vonai; Marx, Sabine M; Mason, Simon J; Connor, Stephen J

    2004-10-22

    Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The

  7. 438 Optimal Number of States in Hidden Markov Models and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, Hidden Markov Model is applied to model human movements as to .... emit either discrete information or a continuous data derived from a Probability .... For each hidden state in the test set, the probability = ... by applying the Kullback-Leibler distance (Juang & Rabiner, 1985) which ..... One Size Does Not Fit.

  8. Fibroid Tumors in Women: A Hidden Epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... not only shuts down the body's production of progesterone. It also shuts down production of estrogen, another sex hormone. Since abruptly depriving the body of estrogen causes hot flashes and prolonged estrogen deprivation can ... would block progesterone while leaving estrogen alone. In theory, such a ...

  9. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    ... of Sexually Transmitted Diseases INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE Division of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files XML from other this ...

  10. Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

    2017-05-26

    The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

  11. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  12. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  13. The hidden and informal curriculum across the continuum of training: A cross-sectional qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doja, Asif; Bould, M Dylan; Clarkin, Chantalle; Eady, Kaylee; Sutherland, Stephanie; Writer, Hilary

    2016-04-01

    The hidden and informal curricula refer to learning in response to unarticulated processes and constraints, falling outside the formal medical curriculum. The hidden curriculum has been identified as requiring attention across all levels of learning. We sought to assess the knowledge and perceptions of the hidden and informal curricula across the continuum of learning at a single institution. Focus groups were held with undergraduate and postgraduate learners and faculty to explore knowledge and perceptions relating to the hidden and informal curricula. Thematic analysis was conducted both inductively by research team members and deductively using questions structured by the existing literature. Participants highlighted several themes related to the presence of the hidden and informal curricula in medical training and practice, including: the privileging of some specialties over others; the reinforcement of hierarchies within medicine; and a culture of tolerance towards unprofessional behaviors. Participants acknowledged the importance of role modeling in the development of professional identities and discussed the deterioration in idealism that occurs. Common issues pertaining to the hidden curriculum exist across all levels of learners, including faculty. Increased awareness of these issues could allow for the further development of methods to address learning within the hidden curriculum.

  14. Low scale gravity mediation with warped extra dimension and collider phenomenology on the hidden sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, Hideo; Okada, Nobuchika; Yamashita, Toshifumi

    2006-01-01

    We propose a scenario of gravity mediated supersymmetry breaking (gravity mediation) in a supersymmetric Randall-Sundrum model. In our setup, both the visible sector and the hidden sector coexist on the infrared (IR) brane. We introduce the Polonyi model as a simple hidden sector. Because of the warped metric, the effective cutoff scale on the IR brane is 'warped down', so that the gravity mediation occurs at a low scale. As a result, the gravitino is naturally the lightest superpartner (LSP) and contact interactions between the hidden and the visible sector fields become stronger. We address phenomenologies for various IR cutoff scales. In particular, we investigate collider phenomenology involving a scalar field (Polonyi field) in the hidden sector for the case with the IR cutoff around 10 TeV. We find a possibility that the hidden sector scalar can be produced at the LHC and the international linear collider (ILC). Interestingly, the scalar behaves like the Higgs boson of the standard model in the production process, while its decay process is quite different and, once produced, it will provide us with a very clean signature. The hidden sector may be no longer hidden

  15. Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharis, M.; Amidi

    2018-03-01

    The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

  16. In Brief: Hidden environment and health costs of energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2009-10-01

    The hidden costs of energy production and use in the United States amounted to an estimated $120 billion in 2005, according to a 19 October report by the U.S. National Research Council. The report, “Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use,” examines hidden costs, including the cost of air pollution damage to human health, which are not reflected in market prices of energy sources, electricity, or gasoline. The report found that in 2005, the total annual external damages from sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter created by coal-burning power plants that produced 95% of the nation's coal-generated electricity were about $62 billion, with nonclimate damages averaging about 3.2 cents for every kilowatt-hour of energy produced. It is estimated that by 2030, nonclimate damages will fall to 1.7 cents per kilowatt-hour. The 2030 figure assumes that new policies already slated for implementation are put in place.

  17. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  18. Distinguishing Hidden Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Kiefer, Stefan; Sistla, A. Prasad

    2015-01-01

    Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of distinguishing two given HMCs based on an observation sequence that one of the HMCs generates. More precisely, given two HMCs and an observation sequence, a distinguishing algorithm is expected to identify the HMC that generates the observation sequence. Two HM...

  19. Coupling of Hidden Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Królikowski, Wojciech

    2016-01-01

    A hypothetic Hidden Sector of the Universe, consisting of sterile fer\\-mions (``sterinos'') and sterile mediating bosons (``sterons'') of mass dimension 1 (not 2!) --- the last described by an antisymmetric tensor field --- requires to exist also a scalar isovector and scalar isoscalar in order to be able to construct electroweak invariant coupling (before spontaneously breaking its symmetry). The introduced scalar isoscalar might be a resonant source for the diphoton excess of 750 GeV, sugge...

  20. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  1. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  2. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  3. Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

    2018-04-01

    Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

  4. Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

    2009-01-01

    Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

  5. Co-existing hidden attractors in a radio-physical oscillator system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuznetsov, A. P.; Kuznetsov, S. P.; Mosekilde, Erik

    2015-01-01

    The term `hidden attractor' relates to a stable periodic, quasiperiodic or chaotic state whose basin of attraction does not overlap with the neighborhood of an unstable equilibrium point. Considering a three-dimensional oscillator system that does not allow for the existence of an equilibrium point...... frequency, describe the bifurcations through which hidden attractors of different type arise and disappear, and illustrate the form of the basins of attraction....

  6. A two particle hidden sector and the oscillations with photons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez, Pedro D. [Universidad de Antofagasta, Departamento de Fisica, Antofagasta (Chile); Arias, Paola; Maldonado, Carlos [Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Departmento de Fisica, Santiago (Chile)

    2018-01-15

    We present a detailed study of the oscillations and optical properties for vacuum, in a model for the dark sector that contains axion-like particles and hidden photons. We provide bounds for the couplings versus the mass, using current results from ALPS-I and PVLAS. We also discuss the challenges for the detection of models with more than one hidden particle in light shining trough wall-like experiments. (orig.)

  7. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  8. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  9. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-01-05

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.

  10. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  11. Optimal no-go theorem on hidden-variable predictions of effect expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blass, Andreas; Gurevich, Yuri

    2018-03-01

    No-go theorems prove that, under reasonable assumptions, classical hidden-variable theories cannot reproduce the predictions of quantum mechanics. Traditional no-go theorems proved that hidden-variable theories cannot predict correctly the values of observables. Recent expectation no-go theorems prove that hidden-variable theories cannot predict the expectations of observables. We prove the strongest expectation-focused no-go theorem to date. It is optimal in the sense that the natural weakenings of the assumptions and the natural strengthenings of the conclusion make the theorem fail. The literature on expectation no-go theorems strongly suggests that the expectation-focused approach is more general than the value-focused one. We establish that the expectation approach is not more general.

  12. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  13. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  14. Raising awareness of the hidden curriculum in veterinary medical education: a review and call for research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitcomb, Tiffany L

    2014-01-01

    The hidden curriculum is characterized by information that is tacitly conveyed to and among students about the cultural and moral environment in which they find themselves. Although the hidden curriculum is often defined as a distinct entity, tacit information is conveyed to students throughout all aspects of formal and informal curricula. This unconsciously communicated knowledge has been identified across a wide spectrum of educational environments and is known to have lasting and powerful impacts, both positive and negative. Recently, medical education research on the hidden curriculum of becoming a doctor has come to the forefront as institutions struggle with inconsistencies between formal and hidden curricula that hinder the practice of patient-centered medicine. Similarly, the complex ethical questions that arise during the practice and teaching of veterinary medicine have the potential to cause disagreement between what the institution sets out to teach and what is actually learned. However, the hidden curriculum remains largely unexplored for this field. Because the hidden curriculum is retained effectively by students, elucidating its underlying messages can be a key component of program refinement. A review of recent literature about the hidden curriculum in a variety of fields, including medical education, will be used to explore potential hidden curricula in veterinary medicine and draw attention to the need for further investigation.

  15. Stable intergenerational associations of childhood overweight during the development of the obesity epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ajslev, Teresa A; Ängquist, Lars; Silventoinen, Karri

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups of chil......: Parent-child resemblance in childhood overweight showed small changes during the development of the obesity epidemic, suggesting that the obesogenic environment inducing the epidemic in Denmark influenced children irrespective of their familial predisposition.......OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups...

  16. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  17. The Consensus String Problem and the Complexity of Comparing Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyngsø, Rune Bang; Pedersen, Christian Nørgaard Storm

    2002-01-01

    The basic theory of hidden Markov models was developed and applied to problems in speech recognition in the late 1960s, and has since then been applied to numerous problems, e.g. biological sequence analysis. Most applications of hidden Markov models are based on efficient algorithms for computing......-norms. We discuss the applicability of the technique used for proving the hardness of comparing two hidden Markov models under the L1-norm to other measures of distance between probability distributions. In particular, we show that it cannot be used for proving NP-hardness of determining the Kullback...

  18. Inference with constrained hidden Markov models in PRISM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp

    2010-01-01

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference. De......_different are integrated. We experimentally validate our approach on the biologically motivated problem of global pairwise alignment.......A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present constraint solving techniques for efficient inference...

  19. Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Educational Research ... Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s Perspectives and Challenges for School Counsellors ... Keywords: Cultural Practices, HIV Epidemic; Behaviour Change.

  20. EVALUASI HIDDEN CURRICULUM DI SMP NEGERI BOJA, KABUPATEN KENDAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neni Lestari

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the implementation and impact of Hidden Curriculum, as well as the determinant factors of success and sustainability in SMPN 2 Boja Kendal. This study was an evaluative research using qualitative approach. The data collected by using observation, interviews, and documentation. Data analyzed by collecting and selecting to be deduce. Validity used triangulation data that combined the result of observation, interviews, and documentation. The results of the study were: 1 The activities of hidden curriculum development at SMPN 2 Boja Kendal, namely: flag ceremony, school environmental management, establishing and enforcing discipline, special religious worship, smiles, greetings and courtesies, exemplary, relationship among students and principal, teachers, and staff, school canteen services. 2 The impact of the hidden curriculum development was the changing of school community’s behavior being better, created clean and beautiful school environment, the improvement of public trust to the school toward their kids’ education. Development of the hidden curriculum could establish students good character and an optimal achievement as well as a good school culture. 3 Internal supporting factors including: qualified human resources, the availability of school facilities, school environment was clean and beautiful. External supporting factors occur in the form of endorsement of the parents, school committees and communities in establishing good and virtuous character for the students.

  1. Hidden and generalized conformal symmetry of Kerr–Sen spacetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghezelbash, A M; Siahaan, H M

    2013-01-01

    It is recently conjectured that generic non-extremal Kerr black hole could be holographically dual to a hidden conformal field theory (CFT) in two dimensions. Moreover, it is known that there are two CFT duals (pictures) to describe the charged rotating black holes which correspond to angular momentum J and electric charge Q of the black hole. Furthermore these two pictures can be incorporated by the CFT duals (general picture) that are generated by SL(2,Z) modular group. The general conformal structure can be revealed by looking at charged scalar wave equation in some appropriate values of frequency and charge. In this regard, we consider the wave equation of a charged massless scalar field in the background of Kerr–Sen black hole and show that in the ‘near region’, the wave equation can be reproduced by the Casimir operator of a local SL(2,R) L ×SL(2,R) R hidden conformal symmetry. We find the exact agreement between macroscopic and microscopic physical quantities like entropy and absorption cross section of scalars for Kerr–Sen black hole. We then find an extension of vector fields that in turn yields an extended local family of SL(2,R) L ×SL(2,R) R hidden conformal symmetry, parameterized by one parameter. For some special values of the parameter, we find a copy of SL(2,R) hidden conformal algebra for the charged Gibbons–Maeda–Garfinkle–Horowitz–Strominger black hole in the strong deflection limit. (paper)

  2. Hidden solution to the μ/Bμ problem in gauge mediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Tuhin S.; Schmaltz, Martin

    2008-01-01

    We propose a solution to the μ/B μ problem in gauge mediation. The novel feature of our solution is that it uses dynamics of the hidden sector, which is often present in models with dynamical supersymmetry breaking. We give an explicit example model of gauge mediation where a very simple messenger sector generates both μ and B μ at one loop. The usual problem, that B μ is then too large, is solved by strong renormalization effects from the hidden sector which suppress B μ relative to μ. Our mechanism relies on an assumption about the signs of certain incalculable anomalous dimensions in the hidden sector. Making these assumptions not only allows us to solve the μ/B μ problem but also leads to a characteristic superpartner spectrum which would be a smoking gun signal for our mechanism.

  3. Multitask TSK fuzzy system modeling by mining intertask common hidden structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yizhang; Chung, Fu-Lai; Ishibuchi, Hisao; Deng, Zhaohong; Wang, Shitong

    2015-03-01

    The classical fuzzy system modeling methods implicitly assume data generated from a single task, which is essentially not in accordance with many practical scenarios where data can be acquired from the perspective of multiple tasks. Although one can build an individual fuzzy system model for each task, the result indeed tells us that the individual modeling approach will get poor generalization ability due to ignoring the intertask hidden correlation. In order to circumvent this shortcoming, we consider a general framework for preserving the independent information among different tasks and mining hidden correlation information among all tasks in multitask fuzzy modeling. In this framework, a low-dimensional subspace (structure) is assumed to be shared among all tasks and hence be the hidden correlation information among all tasks. Under this framework, a multitask Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy system model called MTCS-TSK-FS (TSK-FS for multiple tasks with common hidden structure), based on the classical L2-norm TSK fuzzy system, is proposed in this paper. The proposed model can not only take advantage of independent sample information from the original space for each task, but also effectively use the intertask common hidden structure among multiple tasks to enhance the generalization performance of the built fuzzy systems. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the applicability and distinctive performance of the proposed multitask fuzzy system model in multitask regression learning scenarios.

  4. The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

    2014-01-01

    To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

  5. Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

  6. Epidemic Propagation of Control Plane Failures in GMPLS Controlled Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of a dataplane-decoupled GMPLS control plane, when it is affected by failures that spread in the network in an epidemic manner. In particular, we consider network nodes to be either fully functional, or having a failed control plane, or having both...... a failed control and data plane. Through large-scale network simulation, we evaluate the effect of epidemically spreading control plane failures in terms of blocked connections requests and the amount of stranded capacity due to a dysfunctional control plane. Furthermore, we investigate the effect...... of the epidemic and the epidemic spreading intensity. In particular, networks with long epidemic durations do not necessarily result in worst performance in terms of blocked requests and capacity. Also epidemic scenarios, resulting in worst impact on the network availability does not necessarily result in worst...

  7. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

  8. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  9. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  10. Hidden Costs of Hospital Based Delivery from Two Tertiary Hospitals in Western Nepal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeevan Acharya

    Full Text Available Hospital based delivery has been an expensive experience for poor households because of hidden costs which are usually unaccounted in hospital costs. The main aim of this study was to estimate the hidden costs of hospital based delivery and determine the factors associated with the hidden costs.A hospital based cross-sectional study was conducted among 384 post-partum mothers with their husbands/house heads during the discharge time in Manipal Teaching Hospital and Western Regional Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal. A face to face interview with each respondent was conducted using a structured questionnaire. Hidden costs were calculated based on the price rate of the market during the time of the study.The total hidden costs for normal delivery and C-section delivery were 243.4 USD (US Dollar and 321.6 USD respectively. Of the total maternity care expenditures; higher mean expenditures were found for food & drinking (53.07%, clothes (9.8% and transport (7.3%. For postpartum women with their husband or house head, the total mean opportunity cost of "days of work loss" were 84.1 USD and 81.9 USD for normal delivery and C-section respectively. Factors such as literate mother (p = 0.007, employed house head (p = 0.011, monthly family income more than 25,000 NRs (Nepalese Rupees (p = 0.014, private hospital as a place of delivery (p = 0.0001, C-section as a mode of delivery (p = 0.0001, longer duration (>5days of stay in hospital (p = 0.0001, longer distance (>15km from house to hospital (p = 0.0001 and longer travel time (>240 minutes from house to hospital (p = 0.007 showed a significant association with the higher hidden costs (>25000 NRs.Experiences of hidden costs on hospital based delivery and opportunity costs of days of work loss were found high. Several socio-demographic factors, delivery related factors (place and mode of delivery, length of stay, distance from hospital and travel time were associated with hidden costs. Hidden costs can be a

  11. Hidden Costs of Hospital Based Delivery from Two Tertiary Hospitals in Western Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Jeevan; Kaehler, Nils; Marahatta, Sujan Babu; Mishra, Shiva Raj; Subedi, Sudarshan; Adhikari, Bipin

    2016-01-01

    Hospital based delivery has been an expensive experience for poor households because of hidden costs which are usually unaccounted in hospital costs. The main aim of this study was to estimate the hidden costs of hospital based delivery and determine the factors associated with the hidden costs. A hospital based cross-sectional study was conducted among 384 post-partum mothers with their husbands/house heads during the discharge time in Manipal Teaching Hospital and Western Regional Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal. A face to face interview with each respondent was conducted using a structured questionnaire. Hidden costs were calculated based on the price rate of the market during the time of the study. The total hidden costs for normal delivery and C-section delivery were 243.4 USD (US Dollar) and 321.6 USD respectively. Of the total maternity care expenditures; higher mean expenditures were found for food & drinking (53.07%), clothes (9.8%) and transport (7.3%). For postpartum women with their husband or house head, the total mean opportunity cost of "days of work loss" were 84.1 USD and 81.9 USD for normal delivery and C-section respectively. Factors such as literate mother (p = 0.007), employed house head (p = 0.011), monthly family income more than 25,000 NRs (Nepalese Rupees) (p = 0.014), private hospital as a place of delivery (p = 0.0001), C-section as a mode of delivery (p = 0.0001), longer duration (>5days) of stay in hospital (p = 0.0001), longer distance (>15km) from house to hospital (p = 0.0001) and longer travel time (>240 minutes) from house to hospital (p = 0.007) showed a significant association with the higher hidden costs (>25000 NRs). Experiences of hidden costs on hospital based delivery and opportunity costs of days of work loss were found high. Several socio-demographic factors, delivery related factors (place and mode of delivery, length of stay, distance from hospital and travel time) were associated with hidden costs. Hidden costs can be a

  12. Hidden-sector Spectroscopy with Gravitational Waves from Binary Neutron Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croon, Djuna; Nelson, Ann E.; Sun, Chen; Walker, Devin G. E.; Xianyu, Zhong-Zhi

    2018-05-01

    We show that neutron star (NS) binaries can be ideal laboratories to probe hidden sectors with a long-range force. In particular, it is possible for gravitational wave (GW) detectors such as LIGO and Virgo to resolve the correction of waveforms from ultralight dark gauge bosons coupled to NSs. We observe that the interaction of the hidden sector affects both the GW frequency and amplitude in a way that cannot be fitted by pure gravity.

  13. A Hidden Twelve-Dimensional SuperPoincare Symmetry In Eleven Dimensions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bars, Itzhak; Deliduman, Cemsinan; Pasqua, Andrea; Zumino, Bruno

    2003-12-13

    First, we review a result in our previous paper, of how a ten-dimensional superparticle, taken off-shell, has a hidden eleven-dimensional superPoincare symmetry. Then, we show that the physical sector is defined by three first-class constraints which preserve the full eleven-dimensional symmetry. Applying the same concepts to the eleven dimensional superparticle, taken off-shell, we discover a hidden twelve dimensional superPoincare symmetry that governs the theory.

  14. Hidden Neural Networks: A Framework for HMM/NN Hybrids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Søren Kamaric; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents a general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMM) and neural networks (NN). In the new framework called hidden neural networks (HNN) the usual HMM probability parameters are replaced by neural network outputs. To ensure a probabilistic interpretation the HNN is nor...... HMMs on TIMIT continuous speech recognition benchmarks. On the task of recognizing five broad phoneme classes an accuracy of 84% is obtained compared to 76% for a standard HMM. Additionally, we report a preliminary result of 69% accuracy on the TIMIT 39 phoneme task...

  15. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  16. Surgical management of cutaneous infection caused by atypical mycobacteria after penetrating injury: the hidden dangers of horticulture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J; Smith, C; Childs, P A; Holland, A J

    1997-02-01

    We identified two patients in a 12-month period who presented with cutaneous infection and secondary lymph node involvement from atypical mycobacterial infection after minor gardening injuries. One patient had a coinfection with Nocardia asteroides. Both patients required multiple surgical interventions, despite appropriate antibiotic therapy, before resolution of the disease. The course of the infection was characterized by chronic relapses with complete healing at 12 to 18 months after the original injury. The identification and management of this clinical problem are reviewed.

  17. Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Godwin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART. Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage. Methods: We extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013 to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. Results: We evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged. Conclusions: In general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century. Contribution: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.

  18. Hidden costs, value lost: uninsurance in America

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on the Consequences of Uninsurance

    2003-01-01

    Hidden Cost, Value Lost , the fifth of a series of six books on the consequences of uninsurance in the United States, illustrates some of the economic and social losses to the country of maintaining...

  19. Hidden Markov Models for Human Genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Chauvin, Yves

    1997-01-01

    We analyse the sequential structure of human genomic DNA by hidden Markov models. We apply models of widely different design: conventional left-right constructs and models with a built-in periodic architecture. The models are trained on segments of DNA sequences extracted such that they cover com...

  20. The hidden costs of self-management services in the accounting activity of a company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Ioan TOPOR

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses relevant aspects regarding the hidden costs of self-management services in the accounting area, within the accounting department of a company. With this aim, the authors conducted a study using a questionnaire, whose results were analyzed and interpreted. The hidden costs of the self-management of business accounting services observed in the accounting department of the company have been assessed and the causes of their generating sources were identified and analyzed. The debate of these hidden costs involved the treating of notions that exist in the accounting language, but are still not sufficiently explored by the specialists in the area. We also presented and analyzed the causes of the hidden costs of self-management in the accounting activity, as well as a reporting document for failures, arising from the case study. The article ends with the authors' conclusions regarding the hidden costs of self-management services in the accounting area.

  1. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  2. Hidden Costs and the Role of Modularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Marcus M.

    2013-01-01

    that the inability to effectively estimate the costs of implementing an activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred as operations are likely to be disrupted by opportunity costs and managerial responses. However, this relationship......This paper addresses estimation errors in strategic decision-making processes due to hidden costs. While previous research has investigated the antecedents of hidden costs, this paper investigates performance consequences. Using unique data on 221 offshoring implementations, it is argued...... is mitigated by the degree of modularity in the activity as it reduces the need for costly coordination in offshoring. This paper contributes to research on offshoring and strategic decision-making by emphasizing the importance of organizational design and of estimating the costs of internal organizational...

  3. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  4. Impact of clinical surveillance during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    duration, number of infected herds and the economic losses from an epidemic. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was enhanced to include simulation of surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and the model was used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing......The objectives of this study were to assess, whether the current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could reduce epidemic...... showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds within one week of the zones establishment, as the regulations demand. Extra resources for surveillance did not reduce the costs of the epidemics, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Furthermore...

  5. Segmentation of laser range radar images using hidden Markov field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pucar, P.

    1993-01-01

    Segmentation of images in the context of model based stochastic techniques is connected with high, very often unpracticle computational complexity. The objective with this thesis is to take the models used in model based image processing, simplify and use them in suboptimal, but not computationally demanding algorithms. Algorithms that are essentially one-dimensional, and their extensions to two dimensions are given. The model used in this thesis is the well known hidden Markov model. Estimation of the number of hidden states from observed data is a problem that is addressed. The state order estimation problem is of general interest and is not specifically connected to image processing. An investigation of three state order estimation techniques for hidden Markov models is given. 76 refs

  6. Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Napp

    Full Text Available Andalusia (Southern Spain is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt, defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0. Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8, and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci, which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the

  7. Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-12-05

    A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

  8. Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

  9. Hidden Markov models for labeled sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1994-01-01

    A hidden Markov model for labeled observations, called a class HMM, is introduced and a maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the model. Instead of training it to model the statistics of the training sequences it is trained to optimize recognition. It resembles MMI...

  10. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwang Zhang

    Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  11. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-01-01

    Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  12. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  13. Hidden costs of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    England, R.W.

    1979-01-01

    Mr. England contends that these hidden costs add up to a figure much higher than those that appear in the electric utilities' profit and loss account - costs that are borne by Federal taxpayers, by nuclear industry workers, and by all those people who must share their environment with nuclear facilities. Costs he details are additional deaths and illnesses resulting from exposure to radiation, and the use of tax dollars to clean up the lethal garbage produced by those activities. He asserts that careless handling of uranium ore and mill tailings in past years has apparently resulted in serious public health problems in those mining communities. In another example, Mr. England states that the failure to isolate uranium tailings physically from their environment has probably contributed to an acute leukemia rate in Mesa County, Colorado. He mentions much of the technology development for power reactors being done by the Federal government, not by private reactor manufacturers - thus, again, hidden costs that do not show up in electric bills of customers. The back end of the nuclear fuel cycle as a place for Federally subsidized research and development is discussed briefly. 1 figure, 2 tables

  14. A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

    2016-11-01

    Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

  15. Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-09-01

    Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Limits of performance for the model reduction problem of hidden Markov models

    KAUST Repository

    Kotsalis, Georgios

    2015-12-15

    We introduce system theoretic notions of a Hankel operator, and Hankel norm for hidden Markov models. We show how the related Hankel singular values provide lower bounds on the norm of the difference between a hidden Markov model of order n and any lower order approximant of order n̂ < n.

  17. Limits of performance for the model reduction problem of hidden Markov models

    KAUST Repository

    Kotsalis, Georgios; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2015-01-01

    We introduce system theoretic notions of a Hankel operator, and Hankel norm for hidden Markov models. We show how the related Hankel singular values provide lower bounds on the norm of the difference between a hidden Markov model of order n and any lower order approximant of order n̂ < n.

  18. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  19. Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Closas Pau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

  20. Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, S J; Chughtai, A A; Macintyre, C R

    2017-10-01

    Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes. Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance. We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy. The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Hidden Valley Higgs Decays in the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Ciapetti, G

    2009-01-01

    A number of extensions of the Standard Model result in particles that are neutral, weakly-coupled and have macroscopic decay lengths that can be comparable with LHC detector dimensions. These particles represent, from an experimental point of view, a challenge both for the trigger and for the reconstruction capabilities of the ATLAS apparatus. For the purpose of exploring the challenges to the trigger posed by long-lived particles, the Hidden Valley scenario serves as an excellent setting. In this note we present the results of a first study of ATLAS detector performance for some Hidden Valley processes with long-lived, neutral states that decay throughout the detector volume to multi heavy-flavor jets, mainly b-bbar.

  2. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  3. The impact of multiple information on coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yaohui; Yan, Zhijun

    2018-02-01

    Growing interest has emerged in the study of the interplay between awareness and epidemics in multiplex networks. However, previous studies on this issue usually assume that all aware individuals take the same level of precautions, ignoring individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we investigate the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks considering individual heterogeneity. Here, the precaution levels are heterogeneous and depend on three types of information: contact information and local and global prevalence information. The results show that contact-based precautions can decrease the epidemic prevalence and augment the epidemic threshold, but prevalence-based precautions, regardless of local or global information, can only decrease the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, unlike previous studies in single-layer networks, we do not find a greater impact of local prevalence information on the epidemic prevalence compared to global prevalence information. In addition, we find that the altruistic behaviors of infected individuals can effectively suppress epidemic spreading, especially when the level of contact-based precaution is high.

  4. Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

    2007-05-01

    Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

  5. Dimensional reduction in field theory and hidden symmetries in extended supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kremmer, E.

    1985-01-01

    Dimensional reduction in field theories is discussed both in theories which do not include gravity and in gravity theories. In particular, 11-dimensional supergravity and its reduction to 4 dimensions is considered. Hidden symmetries of supergravity with N=8 in 4 dimensions, global E 7 and local SU(8)-invariances in particular are detected. The hidden symmmetries permit to interpret geometrically the scalar fields

  6. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  7. Low serum hdl-c levels: a hidden threat to patients with spinal cord injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S.; Ayyub, A.

    2014-01-01

    To determine the serum lipid profile in patients with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) of duration >1 year and to compare the serum HDL-c levels of SCI patients undergoing regular physiotherapy for >60 minutes daily with those who did not Undergo physiotherapy. Study Design: Cross-sectional, comparative study. Place and Duration of Study: Spinal Cord Injury Department, AFIRM Rawalpindi and Department of Chemical Pathology, Army Medical College, Rawalpindi, from January 2013 to June 2013. Patients and Methods: Forty six patients suffering from traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) were included. After recording the detailed medical history, fasting blood samples were obtained and analyzed for serum lipid profile. Dyslipidemias were assessed using guidelines from the National Cholesterol Education Project Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III). Serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c)< 0.9 mmol/l (40mg/dl) was considered as low HDL-c level. Results: Out of total 46 patients, 33 (71.7%) were male and 13 (28.3%) were females with mean age of 34.9+- 9.55 years. Low levels of serum HDL-c were found in 21 (45.7%) SCI patients (mean serum HDL-clevels: 0.97+-0.23). SCI patients were further categorized in two groups depending upon the status of regular physiotherapy. Statistically significant difference was found in mean serum HDL-c levels of 22 (47.82%) SCI patients undergoing regular physiotherapy as compared to 24 (52.18%) SCI patients who did not underwent physiotherapy (p<0.05). Conclusion: Patients with SCI have decreased levels of serum HDL-c, imparting an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in these disabled persons. SCI individuals following regular physiotherapy, have better serum HDL-c levels as compared to bed-ridden SCI patients, suggesting the physical activity as an important factor to elevate the serum HDL-c in such patients. Knowledge of relative risk of CVD in persons with SCI is important for appropriate intervention alstrategies

  8. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  9. Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

    2013-12-01

    Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

  10. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  11. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  12. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  13. Outbreaks source: A new mathematical approach to identify their possible location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buscema, Massimo; Grossi, Enzo; Breda, Marco; Jefferson, Tom

    2009-11-01

    Classical epidemiology has generally relied on the description and explanation of the occurrence of infectious diseases in relation to time occurrence of events rather than to place of occurrence. In recent times, computer generated dot maps have facilitated the modeling of the spread of infectious epidemic diseases either with classical statistics approaches or with artificial “intelligent systems”. Few attempts, however, have been made so far to identify the origin of the epidemic spread rather than its evolution by mathematical topology methods. We report on the use of a new artificial intelligence method (the H-PST Algorithm) and we compare this new technique with other well known algorithms to identify the source of three examples of infectious disease outbreaks derived from literature. The H-PST algorithm is a new system able to project a distances matrix of points (events) into a bi-dimensional space, with the generation of a new point, named hidden unit. This new hidden unit deforms the original Euclidean space and transforms it into a new space (cognitive space). The cost function of this transformation is the minimization of the differences between the original distance matrix among the assigned points and the distance matrix of the same points projected into the bi-dimensional map (or any different set of constraints). For many reasons we will discuss, the position of the hidden unit shows to target the outbreak source in many epidemics much better than the other classic algorithms specifically targeted for this task. Compared with main algorithms known in the location theory, the hidden unit was within yards of the outbreak source in the first example (the 2007 epidemic of Chikungunya fever in Italy). The hidden unit was located in the river between the two village epicentres of the spread exactly where the index case was living. Equally in the second (the 1967 foot and mouth disease epidemic in England), and the third (1854 London Cholera epidemic

  14. Survivors of a Silent Epidemic: The Learning Experience of College Students with a History of Traumatic Brain Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlessman, Heather A.

    2010-01-01

    A significant proportion of young adults experience a traumatic brain injury (TBI) every year, and students with this history are becoming a growing presence on college campuses. A review of the literature revealed very little research exploring the learning experiences of college students with a history of traumatic brain injury. The purpose of…

  15. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  16. Experimental search for solar hidden photons in the eV energy range using kinetic mixing with photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizumoto, T.; Ohta, R.; Horie, T.; Suzuki, J.; Minowa, M.; Inoue, Y.

    2013-01-01

    We have searched for solar hidden photons in the eV energy range using a dedicated hidden photon detector. The detector consisted of a parabolic mirror with a diameter of 500 mm and a focal length of 1007 mm installed in a vacuum chamber, and a photomultiplier tube at its focal point. The detector was attached to the Tokyo axion helioscope, Sumico which has a mechanism to track the sun. From the result of the measurement, we found no evidence for the existence of hidden photons and set a limit on the photon-hidden photon mixing parameter χ depending on the hidden photon mass m γ'

  17. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  18. Sharp Contradiction for Local-Hidden-State Model in Quantum Steering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing-Ling; Su, Hong-Yi; Xu, Zhen-Peng; Pati, Arun Kumar

    2016-08-01

    In quantum theory, no-go theorems are important as they rule out the existence of a particular physical model under consideration. For instance, the Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) theorem serves as a no-go theorem for the nonexistence of local hidden variable models by presenting a full contradiction for the multipartite GHZ states. However, the elegant GHZ argument for Bell’s nonlocality does not go through for bipartite Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) state. Recent study on quantum nonlocality has shown that the more precise description of EPR’s original scenario is “steering”, i.e., the nonexistence of local hidden state models. Here, we present a simple GHZ-like contradiction for any bipartite pure entangled state, thus proving a no-go theorem for the nonexistence of local hidden state models in the EPR paradox. This also indicates that the very simple steering paradox presented here is indeed the closest form to the original spirit of the EPR paradox.

  19. Discovering Hidden Controlling Parameters using Data Analytics and Dimensional Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rosario, Zachary; Lee, Minyong; Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2017-11-01

    Dimensional Analysis is a powerful tool, one which takes a priori information and produces important simplifications. However, if this a priori information - the list of relevant parameters - is missing a relevant quantity, then the conclusions from Dimensional Analysis will be incorrect. In this work, we present novel conclusions in Dimensional Analysis, which provide a means to detect this failure mode of missing or hidden parameters. These results are based on a restated form of the Buckingham Pi theorem that reveals a ridge function structure underlying all dimensionless physical laws. We leverage this structure by constructing a hypothesis test based on sufficient dimension reduction, allowing for an experimental data-driven detection of hidden parameters. Both theory and examples will be presented, using classical turbulent pipe flow as the working example. Keywords: experimental techniques, dimensional analysis, lurking variables, hidden parameters, buckingham pi, data analysis. First author supported by the NSF GRFP under Grant Number DGE-114747.

  20. Searching for confining hidden valleys at LHCb, ATLAS, and CMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Aaron; Shakya, Bibhushan; Tsai, Yuhsin; Zhao, Yue

    2018-05-01

    We explore strategies for probing hidden valley scenarios exhibiting confinement. Such scenarios lead to a moderate multiplicity of light hidden hadrons for generic showering and hadronization similar to QCD. Their decays are typically soft and displaced, making them challenging to probe with traditional LHC searches. We show that the low trigger requirements and excellent track and vertex reconstruction at LHCb provide a favorable environment to search for such signals. We propose novel search strategies in both muonic and hadronic channels. We also study existing ATLAS and CMS searches and compare them with our proposals at LHCb. We find that the reach at LHCb is generically better in the parameter space we consider here, even with optimistic background estimations for ATLAS and CMS searches. We discuss potential modifications at ATLAS and CMS that might make these experiments competitive with the LHCb reach. Our proposed searches can be applied to general hidden valley models as well as exotic Higgs boson decays, such as in twin Higgs models.

  1. Single-hidden-layer feed-forward quantum neural network based on Grover learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Cheng-Yi; Chen, Chein; Chang, Ching-Ter; Shih, Lun-Min

    2013-09-01

    In this paper, a novel single-hidden-layer feed-forward quantum neural network model is proposed based on some concepts and principles in the quantum theory. By combining the quantum mechanism with the feed-forward neural network, we defined quantum hidden neurons and connected quantum weights, and used them as the fundamental information processing unit in a single-hidden-layer feed-forward neural network. The quantum neurons make a wide range of nonlinear functions serve as the activation functions in the hidden layer of the network, and the Grover searching algorithm outstands the optimal parameter setting iteratively and thus makes very efficient neural network learning possible. The quantum neuron and weights, along with a Grover searching algorithm based learning, result in a novel and efficient neural network characteristic of reduced network, high efficient training and prospect application in future. Some simulations are taken to investigate the performance of the proposed quantum network and the result show that it can achieve accurate learning. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

  3. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  4. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  5. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  6. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

    2006-04-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  7. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana A. Hacker

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  8. Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason D Bishai

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

  9. Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion within Small-World Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available To depict the rule of epidemic diffusion, two different models, the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS model and the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIQRS model, are proposed and analyzed within small-world network in this paper. Firstly, the epidemic diffusion models are constructed with mean-filed theory, and condition for the occurrence of disease diffusion is explored. Then, the existence and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for these two complex epidemic systems are proved by differential equations knowledge and Routh-Hurwiz theory. At last, a numerical example which includes key parameters analysis and critical topic discussion is presented to test how well the proposed two models may be applied in practice. These works may provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.

  10. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

  11. Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

    2015-05-01

    The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

  12. A Data-Driven Air Transportation Delay Propagation Model Using Epidemic Process Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Baspinar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In air transport network management, in addition to defining the performance behavior of the system’s components, identification of their interaction dynamics is a delicate issue in both strategic and tactical decision-making process so as to decide which elements of the system are “controlled” and how. This paper introduces a novel delay propagation model utilizing epidemic spreading process, which enables the definition of novel performance indicators and interaction rates of the elements of the air transportation network. In order to understand the behavior of the delay propagation over the network at different levels, we have constructed two different data-driven epidemic models approximating the dynamics of the system: (a flight-based epidemic model and (b airport-based epidemic model. The flight-based epidemic model utilizing SIS epidemic model focuses on the individual flights where each flight can be in susceptible or infected states. The airport-centric epidemic model, in addition to the flight-to-flight interactions, allows us to define the collective behavior of the airports, which are modeled as metapopulations. In network model construction, we have utilized historical flight-track data of Europe and performed analysis for certain days involving certain disturbances. Through this effort, we have validated the proposed delay propagation models under disruptive events.

  13. Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

  14. Obesity and non-fatal motor vehicle crash injuries: sex difference effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X; Laud, P W; Pintar, F; Kim, J-E; Shih, A; Shen, W; Heymsfield, S B; Allison, D B; Zhu, S

    2011-09-01

    Obesity and motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries are two parallel epidemics in the United States. An important unanswered question is whether there are sex differences in the associations between the presence of obesity and non-fatal MVC injuries. To further understand the association between obesity and non-fatal MVC injuries, particularly the sex differences in these relations. We examined this question by analyzing data from the 2003 to 2007 National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS CDS). A total of 10,962 drivers who were aged 18 years or older and who survived frontal collision crashes were eligible for the study. Male drivers experienced a lower rate of overall non-fatal MVC injuries than did female drivers (38.1 versus 52.2%), but experienced a higher rate of severe injuries (0.7 versus 0.2%). After adjusting for change in velocity (ΔV) during the crashes, obese male drivers showed a much higher risk (logistic coefficients of body mass index (BMI) for moderate, serious and severe injury are 0.0766, 0.1470 and 0.1792, respectively; all Pobese male drivers and these risks increased with injury severity. Non-fatal injury risks were not found to be increased in obese female drivers. The association between obesity and risk of non-fatal injury was much stronger for male drivers than for female drivers. The higher risk of non-fatal MVC injuries in obese male drivers might result from their different body shape and fat distribution compared with obese female drivers. Our findings should be considered for obesity reduction, traffic safety evaluation and vehicle design for obese male drivers and provide testable hypotheses for future studies.

  15. Nurture Hidden Talents: Transform School Culture into One That Values Teacher Expertise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Diane P.

    2014-01-01

    This article looks into the school culture where teacher expertise is often hidden and underused. While the media-rich culture places a high value on talent, the irony is that talent is underrated in most schools, and educators often remain silent about their hidden talents. Many school cultures are not conducive to dialogue that supports displays…

  16. Reemergence of enterovirus 71 epidemic in northern Taiwan, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shu-Ting; Chiang, Pai-Shan; Chung, Wan-Yu; Chia, Min-Yuan; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Wang, Ying-Hsiang; Lin, Tzou-Yien; Lee, Min-Shi

    2015-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) belongs to picornavirus family and could be classified phylogenetically into three major genogroups (A, B and C) including 11 genotypes (A, B1-B5 and C1-C5). Since 1997, EV71 has caused large-scale of epidemics with neurological complications in Asian children. In Taiwan, nationwide EV71 epidemics with different predominant genotypes have occurred cyclically since 1998. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred again in 2012. We conducted genetic and antigenic characterizations of the 2012 epidemic. Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) is a medical center in northern Taiwan. In CGMH, specimens were collected from pediatric inpatients with suspected enterovirus infections for virus isolation. Enterovirus isolates were serotyped and genotyped and sera from EV71 inpatients were collected for measuring neutralizing antibody titers. There were 10, 16 and 99 EV71 inpatients identified in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. There were 82 EV71 isolates genotyped, which identified 17 genotype C4a viruses and 65 genotype B5 viruses. The genotype B5 viruses were not detected until November 2011 and caused epidemics in 2012. Interestingly, the B5-2011 viruses were genetically distinguishable from the B5 viruses causing the 2008 epidemic and are likely introduced from China or Southeastern Asia. Based on antigenic analysis, minor antigenic variations were detected among the B5-2008, B5-2011, C4a-2008 and C4a-2012 viruses but these viruses antigenically differed from genotype A. Genotype B5 and C4a viruses antigenically differ from genotype A viruses which have disappeared globally for 30 years but have been detected in China since 2008. Enterovirus surveillance should monitor genetic and antigenic variations of EV71.

  17. Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

    2014-02-15

    Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

  18. Long memory of financial time series and hidden Markov models with time-varying parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    Hidden Markov models are often used to capture stylized facts of daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior for the ability to reproduce the stylized...... facts have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive estimation approach that allows for the parameters of the estimated models to be time-varying. It is shown that a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters is able to reproduce the long memory of squared...... daily returns that was previously believed to be the most difficult fact to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step predictions....

  19. Photoacoustic imaging of hidden dental caries by using a bundle of hollow optical fibers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koyama, Takuya; Kakino, Satoko; Matsuura, Yuji

    2018-02-01

    Photoacoustic imaging system using a bundle of hollow-optical fibers to detect hidden dental caries is proposed. Firstly, we fabricated a hidden caries model with a brown pigment simulating a common color of caries lesion. It was found that high frequency ultrasonic waves are generated from hidden carious part when radiating Nd:YAG laser light with a 532 nm wavelength to occlusal surface of model tooth. We calculated by Fourier transform and found that the waveform from the carious part provides frequency components of approximately from 0.5 to 1.2 MHz. Then a photoacoustic imaging system using a bundle of hollow optical fiber was fabricated for clinical applications. From intensity map of frequency components in 0.5-1.2 MHz, photoacoustic images of hidden caries in the simulated samples were successfully obtained.

  20. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  1. Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

    2013-01-21

    The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  3. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  4. Global stability of a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on networks with individual awareness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ke-Zan; Xu Zhong-Pu; Zhu Guang-Hu; Ding Yong

    2014-01-01

    Recent research results indicate that individual awareness can play an important influence on epidemic spreading in networks. By local stability analysis, a significant conclusion is that the embedded awareness in an epidemic network can increase its epidemic threshold. In this paper, by using limit theory and dynamical system theory, we further give global stability analysis of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks with awareness. Results show that the obtained epidemic threshold is also a global stability condition for its endemic equilibrium, which implies the embedded awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold globally. Some numerical examples are presented to verify the theoretical results. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  5. Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Rocio; Bertrand, Sophie; Tam, Jorge; Fablet, Ronan

    2013-01-01

    One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs). We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour), while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising) were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines) for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%), significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

  6. Hidden Markov models: the best models for forager movements?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocio Joo

    Full Text Available One major challenge in the emerging field of movement ecology is the inference of behavioural modes from movement patterns. This has been mainly addressed through Hidden Markov models (HMMs. We propose here to evaluate two sets of alternative and state-of-the-art modelling approaches. First, we consider hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs. They may better represent the behavioural dynamics of foragers since they explicitly model the duration of the behavioural modes. Second, we consider discriminative models which state the inference of behavioural modes as a classification issue, and may take better advantage of multivariate and non linear combinations of movement pattern descriptors. For this work, we use a dataset of >200 trips from human foragers, Peruvian fishermen targeting anchovy. Their movements were recorded through a Vessel Monitoring System (∼1 record per hour, while their behavioural modes (fishing, searching and cruising were reported by on-board observers. We compare the efficiency of hidden Markov, hidden semi-Markov, and three discriminative models (random forests, artificial neural networks and support vector machines for inferring the fishermen behavioural modes, using a cross-validation procedure. HSMMs show the highest accuracy (80%, significantly outperforming HMMs and discriminative models. Simulations show that data with higher temporal resolution, HSMMs reach nearly 100% of accuracy. Our results demonstrate to what extent the sequential nature of movement is critical for accurately inferring behavioural modes from a trajectory and we strongly recommend the use of HSMMs for such purpose. In addition, this work opens perspectives on the use of hybrid HSMM-discriminative models, where a discriminative setting for the observation process of HSMMs could greatly improve inference performance.

  7. Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) use markers to monitor the movement of a hidden item.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beran, Michael J; Beran, Mary M; Menzel, Charles R

    2005-10-01

    Four chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) monitored the movement of hidden items in arrays of opaque cups. A chocolate candy was hidden in an array of four cups and temporarily presented paper markers indicated the location of the candy (which otherwise was not visible). These markers were either non-symbolic or symbolic (lexigram) stimuli that in other contexts acted as a label for the hidden candy, and the array was either rotated 180 degrees after the marker was removed or the array remained in the same location. For three of four chimpanzees, performance was better than chance in all conditions and there was no effect of the type of marker. These experiments indicate that chimpanzees can track the movement of a hidden item in an array of identical cups even when they never see the item itself, but only see a temporarily presented marker for the location of that item. However, there was no benefit to the use of symbolic as opposed to non-symbolic stimuli in this performance.

  8. Significance of hidden advertising of the media business models in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Rožukalne, Anda

    2012-01-01

    Since 2002 parliamentary and municipal elections in Latvia, media content researches have shown a considerable amount of hidden advertising: media publish information that is paid-for, yet not identified as advertising, assigning this information with the qualities of independent content, therefore misleading its audience. In order to analyze this practice, a research was commissioned to find out why Latvian media publish hidden advertising, what is the force behind this practice, who are com...

  9. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  10. Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

  11. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  12. Enhanced axion-photon coupling in GUT with hidden photon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daido, Ryuji; Takahashi, Fuminobu; Yokozaki, Norimi

    2018-05-01

    We show that the axion coupling to photons can be enhanced in simple models with a single Peccei-Quinn field, if the gauge coupling unification is realized by a large kinetic mixing χ = O (0.1) between hypercharge and unbroken hidden U(1)H. The key observation is that the U(1)H gauge coupling should be rather strong to induce such large kinetic mixing, leading to enhanced contributions of hidden matter fields to the electromagnetic anomaly. We find that the axion-photon coupling is enhanced by about a factor of 10-100 with respect to the GUT-axion models with E / N = 8 / 3.

  13. Epidemic spreading on complex networks with overlapping and non-overlapping community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Jiaxing; Liu, Lianchen; Li, Xin; Xie, Feng; Wu, Cheng

    2015-02-01

    Many real-world networks exhibit community structure where vertices belong to one or more communities. Recent studies show that community structure plays an import role in epidemic spreading. In this paper, we investigate how the extent of overlap among communities affects epidemics. In order to experiment on the characteristic of overlapping communities, we propose a rewiring algorithm that can change the community structure from overlapping to non-overlapping while maintaining the degree distribution of the network. We simulate the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on synthetic scale-free networks and real-world networks by applying our rewiring algorithm. Experiments show that epidemics spread faster on networks with higher level of overlapping communities. Furthermore, overlapping communities' effect interacts with the average degree's effect. Our work further illustrates the important role of overlapping communities in the process of epidemic spreading.

  14. The importance of thinking beyond the water-supply in cholera epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phelps, Matthew D.; Azman, Andrew S.; Lewnard, Joseph A.

    2017-01-01

    the contribution of long-cycle waterborne transmission between neighborhoods using historical municipal water infrastructure data, fitting the force of infection from hydraulic flow, then comparing model performance. We found the epidemic was characterized by considerable transmission heterogeneity. Some...... municipal water quality. We recommend public health planners consider programs aimed at interrupting short-cycle transmission as essential tools in the cholera control arsenal. Author summary: John Snow’s seminal work on the London cholera epidemic and Broadway pump helped establish cholera......-cycle transmission to the epidemic. We find transmission between neighborhoods during the epidemic did not follow water pipe connections, suggesting little evidence of long-cycle transmission. Instead, we suggest that short-cycle transmission was likely critical to the propagation of the outbreak. Interventions...

  15. Multistability and hidden attractors in a multilevel DC/DC converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhusubaliyev, Zhanybai T.; Mosekilde, Erik

    2015-01-01

    An attracting periodic, quasiperiodic or chaotic set of a smooth, autonomous system may be referred to as a "hidden attractor" if its basin of attraction does not overlap with the neighborhood of an unstable equilibrium point. Historically, this condition has implied that the basin of attraction...... produce complicated structures of attracting and repelling states organized around the basic switching cycle. This leads us to suggest the existence of hidden attractors in such systems as well. In this case, the condition will be that the basin of attraction does not overlap with the fixed point...

  16. Exploring inequality violations by classical hidden variables numerically

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vongehr, Sascha

    2013-01-01

    There are increasingly suggestions for computer simulations of quantum statistics which try to violate Bell type inequalities via classical, common cause correlations. The Clauser–Horne–Shimony–Holt (CHSH) inequality is very robust. However, we argue that with the Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen setup, the CHSH is inferior to the Bell inequality, although and because the latter must assume anti-correlation of entangled photon singlet states. We simulate how often quantum behavior violates both inequalities, depending on the number of photons. Violating Bell 99% of the time is argued to be an ideal benchmark. We present hidden variables that violate the Bell and CHSH inequalities with 50% probability, and ones which violate Bell 85% of the time when missing 13% anti-correlation. We discuss how to present the quantum correlations to a wide audience and conclude that, when defending against claims of hidden classicality, one should demand numerical simulations and insist on anti-correlation and the full amount of Bell violation. -- Highlights: •The widely assumed superiority of the CHSH fails in the EPR problem. •We simulate Bell type inequalities behavior depending on the number of photons. •The core of Bell’s theorem in the EPR setup is introduced in a simple way understandable to a wide audience. •We present hidden variables that violate both inequalities with 50% probability. •Algorithms have been supplied in form of Mathematica programs

  17. Mass spectra of hidden-charm molecular pentaquarks states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, Smruti; Vinodkumar, P.C.

    2016-01-01

    Very recently, the LHCb Collaboration has reported two hidden-charmed resonances P_c(4380) and P_c(4450) consistent with pentaquark states in the Λ_b"0 → K"-J/Ψp process with masses (widths) (4380 ±8 ± 29) MeV ((205 ±18 ± 86) MeV) and (4449.8 ±1.7 ± 2.5) MeV ((39 ±5 ±19) MeV), respectively. The observation of the P_c states has aroused the theorist's strong interest in the hidden-charm pentaquark states. They have been studied in various frameworks, such as the molecule-like pentaquark states, the diquark-diquark-antiquark type pentaquark states, the diquark-triquark type pentaquark states, re-scattering effects, etc. An identification of pentaquark states as exotic hadron has been one of the long standing problems in the physics of strong interaction and quantum chromodynamics (QCD). A decade ago lots of discussion were made about pentaquarks states but due to lack of further experimental evidences the study of pentaquarks have been almost gone in the darkness. But, recent remarkable observation of two resonances i.e. P_c(4380) and P_c(4450) with hidden charm and the minimal quark content cc-baruud provided new impact for studies of pentaquark states and opens a new window to study the exotic hadronic matter

  18. [The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, M D

    1992-01-01

    The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

  19. Hidden supersymmetry and large N

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfaro, J.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper we present a new method to deal with the leading order in the large-N expansion of a quantum field theory. The method uses explicitly the hidden supersymmetry that is present in the path-integral formulation of a stochastic process. In addition to this we derive a new relation that is valid in the leading order of the large-N expansion of the hermitian-matrix model for any spacetime dimension. (orig.)

  20. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  1. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  2. Long Memory of Financial Time Series and Hidden Markov Models with Time-Varying Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are often used to model daily returns and to infer the hidden state of financial markets. Previous studies have found that the estimated models change over time, but the implications of the time-varying behavior have not been thoroughly examined. This paper presents an adaptive...... to reproduce with a hidden Markov model. Capturing the time-varying behavior of the parameters also leads to improved one-step density forecasts. Finally, it is shown that the forecasting performance of the estimated models can be further improved using local smoothing to forecast the parameter variations....

  3. How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gou

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

  4. Hidden Broad-line Regions in Seyfert 2 Galaxies: From the Spectropolarimetric Perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Pu; Wang, Jian-Min; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang

    2017-01-01

    The hidden broad-line regions (BLRs) in Seyfert 2 galaxies, which display broad emission lines (BELs) in their polarized spectra, are a key piece of evidence in support of the unified model for active galactic nuclei (AGNs). However, the detailed kinematics and geometry of hidden BLRs are still not fully understood. The virial factor obtained from reverberation mapping of type 1 AGNs may be a useful diagnostic of the nature of hidden BLRs in type 2 objects. In order to understand the hidden BLRs, we compile six type 2 objects from the literature with polarized BELs and dynamical measurements of black hole masses. All of them contain pseudobulges. We estimate their virial factors, and find the average value is 0.60 and the standard deviation is 0.69, which agree well with the value of type 1 AGNs with pseudobulges. This study demonstrates that (1) the geometry and kinematics of BLR are similar in type 1 and type 2 AGNs of the same bulge type (pseudobulges), and (2) the small values of virial factors in Seyfert 2 galaxies suggest that, similar to type 1 AGNs, BLRs tend to be very thick disks in type 2 objects.

  5. Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, J F

    2001-01-01

    St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

  6. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

  7. Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of global data. ... Backward multiple linear regression analysis identified the proportion of Muslims, physicians density, and adolescent fertility rate are as the three most prominent factors linked with the national HIV epidemic. Conclusions: The findings support ...

  8. Finite-time Lyapunov dimension and hidden attractor of the Rabinovich system

    OpenAIRE

    Kuznetsov, N. V.; Leonov, G. A.; Mokaev, T. N.; Prasad, A.; Shrimali, M. D.

    2015-01-01

    The Rabinovich system, describing the process of interaction between waves in plasma, is considered. It is shown that the Rabinovich system can exhibit a hidden attractor in the case of multistability as well as a classical self-excited attractor. The hidden attractor in this system can be localized by analytical/numerical methods based on the continuation and perpetual points. The concept of finite-time Lyapunov dimension is developed for numerical study of the dimension of attractors. A con...

  9. Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

    2015-01-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

  10. Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

    2010-08-01

    During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

  11. [MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

    2009-01-01

    It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

  12. Intense gamma-ray lines from hidden vector dark matter decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arina, Chiara; Hambye, Thomas

    2009-12-01

    Scenarios with hidden, spontaneously broken, non-abelian gauge groups contain a natural dark matter candidate, the hidden vector, whose longevity is due to an accidental custodial symmetry in the renormalizable Lagrangian. Nevertheless, non-renormalizable dimension six operators break the custodial symmetry and induce the decay of the dark matter particle at cosmological times. We discuss in this paper the cosmic ray signatures of this scenario and we show that the decay of hidden vector dark matter particles generically produce an intense gamma ray line which could be observed by the Fermi-LAT experiment, if the scale of custodial symmetry breaking is close to the Grand Unification scale. This gamma line proceeds directly from a tree level dark matter 2-body decay in association with a Higgs boson. Within this model we also perform a determination of the relic density constraints taking into account the dark matter annihilation processes with one dark matter particle in the final state. The corresponding direct detection rates can be easily of order the current experimental sensitivities. (orig.)

  13. Intense gamma-ray lines from hidden vector dark matter decay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arina, Chiara; Hambye, Thomas [Universite Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium). Service de Physique Theorique; Ibarra, Alejandro [Technische Univ. Muenchen, Garching (Germany). Physik-Department; Weniger, Christoph [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2009-12-15

    Scenarios with hidden, spontaneously broken, non-abelian gauge groups contain a natural dark matter candidate, the hidden vector, whose longevity is due to an accidental custodial symmetry in the renormalizable Lagrangian. Nevertheless, non-renormalizable dimension six operators break the custodial symmetry and induce the decay of the dark matter particle at cosmological times. We discuss in this paper the cosmic ray signatures of this scenario and we show that the decay of hidden vector dark matter particles generically produce an intense gamma ray line which could be observed by the Fermi-LAT experiment, if the scale of custodial symmetry breaking is close to the Grand Unification scale. This gamma line proceeds directly from a tree level dark matter 2-body decay in association with a Higgs boson. Within this model we also perform a determination of the relic density constraints taking into account the dark matter annihilation processes with one dark matter particle in the final state. The corresponding direct detection rates can be easily of order the current experimental sensitivities. (orig.)

  14. Intense gamma-ray lines from hidden vector dark matter decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arina, Chiara; Hambye, Thomas; Ibarra, Alejandro; Weniger, Christoph

    2010-01-01

    Scenarios with hidden, spontaneously broken, non-abelian gauge groups contain a natural dark matter candidate, the hidden vector, whose longevity is due to an accidental custodial symmetry in the renormalizable Lagrangian. Nevertheless, non-renormalizable dimension six operators break the custodial symmetry and induce the decay of the dark matter particle at cosmological times. We discuss in this paper the cosmic ray signatures of this scenario and we show that the decay of hidden vector dark matter particles generically produce an intense gamma ray line which could be observed by the Fermi-LAT experiment, if the scale of custodial symmetry breaking is close to the Grand Unification scale. This gamma line proceeds directly from a tree level dark matter 2-body decay in association with a Higgs boson. Within this model we also perform a determination of the relic density constraints taking into account the dark matter annihilation processes with one dark matter particle in the final state. The corresponding direct detection rates can be easily of order the current experimental sensitivities

  15. Viral conductance : Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Youssef, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Scoglio, C.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place,

  16. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  17. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  18. The Hidden Cost of Buying a Computer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michael

    1983-01-01

    In order to process data in a computer, application software must be either developed or purchased. Costs for modifications of the software package and maintenance are often hidden. The decision to buy or develop software packages should be based upon factors of time and maintenance. (MLF)

  19. Theoretical analysis of hidden photon searches in high-precision experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranek, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Although the Standard Model of particle physics (SM) provides an extremely successful description of the ordinary matter, one knows from astronomical observations that it accounts only for around 5% of the total energy density of the Universe, whereas around 30% are contributed by the dark matter. Motivated by anomalies in cosmic ray observations and by attempts to solve questions of the SM like the (g-2) μ discrepancy, proposed U(1) extensions of the Standard Model gauge group SU(3) x SU(2) x U(1) have raised attention in recent years. In the considered U(1) extensions a new, light messenger particle γ', the hidden photon, couples to the hidden sector as well as to the electromagnetic current of the SM by kinetic mixing. This allows for a search for this particle in laboratory experiments exploring the electromagnetic interaction. Various experimental programs have been started to search for the γ' boson, such as in electron-scattering experiments, which are a versatile tool to explore various physics phenomena. One approach is the dedicated search in fixed-target experiments at modest energies as performed at MAMI or at JLAB. In these experiments the scattering of an electron beam off a hadronic target e→e(A,Z)l + l - is investigated and a search for a very narrow resonance in the invariant mass distribution of the l + l - pair is performed. This requires an accurate understanding of the theoretical basis of the underlying processes. For this purpose it is demonstrated in the first part of this work, in which way the hidden photon can be motivated from existing puzzles encountered at the precision frontier of the SM. The main part of this thesis deals with the analysis of the theoretical framework for electron scattering fixed-target experiments searching for hidden photons. As a first step, the cross section for the bremsstrahlung emission of hidden photons in such experiments is studied. Based on these results, the applicability of the Weizsaecker

  20. Sterile neutrino, hidden dark matter and their cosmological signatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, Subinoy

    2012-01-01

    Though thermal dark matter has been the central idea behind the dark matter candidates, it is highly possible that dark matter of the universe is non-thermal in origin or it might be in thermal contact with some hidden or dark sector but not with standard model. Here we explore the cosmological bounds as well as the signatures on two types of non-thermal dark matter candidates. First we discuss a hidden dark matter with almost no interaction (or very feeble) with standard model particles so that it is not in thermal contact with visible sector but we assume it is thermalized with in a hidden sector due to some interaction. While encompassing the standard cold WIMP scenario, we do not require the freeze-out process to be non-relativistic. Rather, freeze-out may also occur when dark matter particles are semi-relativistic or relativistic. Especially we focus on the warm dark matter scenario in this set up and find the constraints on the warm dark matter mass, cross-section and hidden to visible sector temperature ratio which accounts for the observed dark-matter density, satisfies the Tremaine-Gunn bound on dark-matter phase space density and has a free-streaming length consistent with cosmological constraints on the matter power spectrum. Our method can also be applied to keV sterile neutrino dark matter which is not thermalized with standard model but is thermalized with in a dark sector. The second part of this proceeding focuses on an exotic dark matter candidate which arises from the existence of eV mass sterile neutrino through a late phase transition. Due to existence of a strong scalar force the light sterile states get trapped into stable degenerate micro nuggets. We find that its signature in matter power spectra is close to a warm dark matter candidate.

  1. Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H S Girgia

    1980-01-01

    Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

  2. Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chao-Ran; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Guan, Jian-Yue

    2014-11-01

    Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

  3. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  4. Epidemic propagation on adaptive coevolutionary networks with preferential local-world reconnecting strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping; Gong Yong-Wang

    2013-01-01

    In the propagation of an epidemic in a population, individuals adaptively adjust their behavior to avoid the risk of an epidemic. Differently from existing studies where new links are established randomly, a local link is established preferentially in this paper. We propose a new preferentially reconnecting edge strategy depending on spatial distance (PR-SD). For the PR-SD strategy, the new link is established at random with probability p and in a shortest distance with the probability 1 − p. We establish the epidemic model on an adaptive network using Cellular Automata, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by numerical simulations. The results show that the smaller the value of parameter p, the more difficult the epidemic spread is. The PR-SD strategy breaks long-range links and establishes as many short-range links as possible, which causes the network efficiency to decrease quickly and the propagation of the epidemic is restrained effectively. (general)

  5. Dynamic behavior of the interaction between epidemics and cascades on heterogeneous networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lurong; Jin, Xinyu; Xia, Yongxiang; Ouyang, Bo; Wu, Duanpo

    2014-12-01

    Epidemic spreading and cascading failure are two important dynamical processes on complex networks. They have been investigated separately for a long time. But in the real world, these two dynamics sometimes may interact with each other. In this paper, we explore a model combined with the SIR epidemic spreading model and a local load sharing cascading failure model. There exists a critical value of the tolerance parameter for which the epidemic with high infection probability can spread out and infect a fraction of the network in this model. When the tolerance parameter is smaller than the critical value, the cascading failure cuts off the abundance of paths and blocks the spreading of the epidemic locally. While the tolerance parameter is larger than the critical value, the epidemic spreads out and infects a fraction of the network. A method for estimating the critical value is proposed. In simulations, we verify the effectiveness of this method in the uncorrelated configuration model (UCM) scale-free networks.

  6. Exposing the Hidden-Web Induced by Ajax

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mesbah, A.; Van Deursen, A.

    2008-01-01

    AJAX is a very promising approach for improving rich interactivity and responsiveness of web applications. At the same time, AJAX techniques increase the totality of the hidden web by shattering the metaphor of a web ‘page’ upon which general search engines are based. This paper describes a

  7. K­MEANS CLUSTERING FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perrone, M.P.; Connell, S.D.

    2004-01-01

    An unsupervised k­means clustering algorithm for hidden Markov models is described and applied to the task of generating subclass models for individual handwritten character classes. The algorithm is compared to a related clustering method and shown to give a relative change in the error rate of as

  8. Algorithms for a parallel implementation of Hidden Markov Models with a small state space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper; Sand, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Two of the most important algorithms for Hidden Markov Models are the forward and the Viterbi algorithms. We show how formulating these using linear algebra naturally lends itself to parallelization. Although the obtained algorithms are slow for Hidden Markov Models with large state spaces...

  9. Testing string vacua in the lab. From a hidden CMB to dark forces in flux compactifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele; Goodsell, Mark; Ringwald, Andreas [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Jaeckel, Joerg [Durham Univ. (United Kingdom). Inst. for Particle Physics Phenomenolgy

    2011-03-15

    We perform a detailed analysis of the phenomenological properties of hidden Abelian gauge bosons with a kinetic mixing with the ordinary photon within type IIB flux compactifications. We study the interplay between moduli stabilisation and the Green-Schwarz mechanism that gives mass to the hidden photon paying particular attention to the role of D-terms. We present two generic classes of explicit Calabi-Yau examples with an isotropic and an anisotropic shape of the extra dimensions showing how the last case turns out to be very promising to make contact with current experiments. In fact, anisotropic compactifications lead naturally to a GeV-scale hidden photon (''dark forces'' that can be searched for in beam dump experiments) for an intermediate string scale; or even to an meV-scale hidden photon (which could lead to a ''hidden CMB'' and can be tested by light-shining-through-a-wall experiments) in the case of TeV-scale strings. (orig.)

  10. Descriptive epidemiology of typhoid fever during an epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polonsky, Jonathan A; Martínez-Pino, Isabel; Nackers, Fabienne; Chonzi, Prosper; Manangazira, Portia; Van Herp, Michel; Maes, Peter; Porten, Klaudia; Luquero, Francisco J

    2014-01-01

    Typhoid fever remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. In October 2011, a typhoid fever epidemic was declared in Harare, Zimbabwe - the fourth enteric infection epidemic since 2008. To orient control activities, we described the epidemiology and spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic in Dzivaresekwa and Kuwadzana, the two most affected suburbs of Harare. A typhoid fever case-patient register was analysed to describe the epidemic. To explore clustering, we constructed a dataset comprising GPS coordinates of case-patient residences and randomly sampled residential locations (spatial controls). The scale and significance of clustering was explored with Ripley K functions. Cluster locations were determined by a random labelling technique and confirmed using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. We analysed data from 2570 confirmed and suspected case-patients, and found significant spatiotemporal clustering of typhoid fever in two non-overlapping areas, which appeared to be linked to environmental sources. Peak relative risk was more than six times greater than in areas lying outside the cluster ranges. Clusters were identified in similar geographical ranges by both random labelling and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. The spatial scale at which typhoid fever clustered was highly localised, with significant clustering at distances up to 4.5 km and peak levels at approximately 3.5 km. The epicentre of infection transmission shifted from one cluster to the other during the course of the epidemic. This study demonstrated highly localised clustering of typhoid fever during an epidemic in an urban African setting, and highlights the importance of spatiotemporal analysis for making timely decisions about targetting prevention and control activities and reinforcing treatment during epidemics. This approach should be integrated into existing surveillance systems to facilitate early detection of epidemics and identify their spatial range.

  11. Evaluating neighborhood structures for modeling intercity diffusion of large-scale dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Tzai-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Shun; Hu, Ming-Che

    2018-05-03

    Dengue fever is a vector-borne infectious disease that is transmitted by contact between vector mosquitoes and susceptible hosts. The literature has addressed the issue on quantifying the effect of individual mobility on dengue transmission. However, there are methodological concerns in the spatial regression model configuration for examining the effect of intercity-scale human mobility on dengue diffusion. The purposes of the study are to investigate the influence of neighborhood structures on intercity epidemic progression from pre-epidemic to epidemic periods and to compare definitions of different neighborhood structures for interpreting the spread of dengue epidemics. We proposed a framework for assessing the effect of model configurations on dengue incidence in 2014 and 2015, which were the most severe outbreaks in 70 years in Taiwan. Compared with the conventional model configuration in spatial regression analysis, our proposed model used a radiation model, which reflects population flow between townships, as a spatial weight to capture the structure of human mobility. The results of our model demonstrate better model fitting performance, indicating that the structure of human mobility has better explanatory power in dengue diffusion than the geometric structure of administration boundaries and geographic distance between centroids of cities. We also identified spatial-temporal hierarchy of dengue diffusion: dengue incidence would be influenced by its immediate neighboring townships during pre-epidemic and epidemic periods, and also with more distant neighbors (based on mobility) in pre-epidemic periods. Our findings suggest that the structure of population mobility could more reasonably capture urban-to-urban interactions, which implies that the hub cities could be a "bridge" for large-scale transmission and make townships that immediately connect to hub cities more vulnerable to dengue epidemics.

  12. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Has Bell's inequality a general meaning for hidden-variable theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochak, G.

    1976-01-01

    The proof given by J. S. Bell of an inequality between mean values of measurement results which, according to him, would be characteristic of any local hidden-parameter theory, is analyzed. It is shown that Bell's proof is based upon a hypothesis already contained in von Neumann's famous theorem: It consists in the admission that hidden values of parameters must obey the same statistical laws as observed values. This hypothesis contradicts in advance well known and certainly correct statistical relations in measurement results: one must therefore reject the type of theory considered by Bell, and his inequality has no general meaning

  14. epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

    2016-12-01

    Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

    2007-10-01

    The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

  16. PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retno Widyaningrum

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

  17. Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn Orbann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model structure. Papers describing computer models of infectious disease often lack a clear description of how the data are aggregated and whether or not non-epidemic runs are excluded from analyses. Given that there is no concrete quantitative definition of what constitutes an epidemic within the public health literature, each modeler must decide on a strategy for identifying epidemics during simulation runs. Here, an SEIR model was used to test the effects of how varying the cutoff for considering a run an epidemic changes potential interpretations of simulation outcomes. Varying the cutoff from 0% to 15% of the model population ever infected with the illness generated significant differences in numbers of dead and timing variables. These results are important for those who use models to form public health policy, in which questions of timing or implementation of interventions might be answered using findings from computer simulation models.

  18. A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blower Sally

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

  19. Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboofazeli, Mohammad; Moussavi, Zahra

    2009-01-01

    Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.

  20. Swallowing sound detection using hidden markov modeling of recurrence plot features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aboofazeli, Mohammad [Faculty of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 (Canada)], E-mail: umaboofa@cc.umanitoba.ca; Moussavi, Zahra [Faculty of Engineering, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5V6 (Canada)], E-mail: mousavi@ee.umanitoba.ca

    2009-01-30

    Automated detection of swallowing sounds in swallowing and breath sound recordings is of importance for monitoring purposes in which the recording durations are long. This paper presents a novel method for swallowing sound detection using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features. Tracheal sound recordings of 15 healthy and nine dysphagic subjects were studied. The multidimensional state space trajectory of each signal was reconstructed using the Taken method of delays. The sequences of three recurrence plot features of the reconstructed trajectories (which have shown discriminating capability between swallowing and breath sounds) were modeled by three hidden Markov models. The Viterbi algorithm was used for swallowing sound detection. The results were validated manually by inspection of the simultaneously recorded airflow signal and spectrogram of the sounds, and also by auditory means. The experimental results suggested that the performance of the proposed method using hidden Markov modeling of recurrence plot features was superior to the previous swallowing sound detection methods.

  1. Hidden conformal symmetry of a rotating black hole with four charges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shao Kainan; Zhang Zhibai

    2011-01-01

    Kerr/CFT correspondence exhibits many remarkable connections between the near-horizon Kerr black hole and a conformal field theory (CFT). Recently, Castro, Maloney, and Strominger showed that a hidden conformal symmetry exists in the solution space of a Kerr black hole. In this paper we investigate a rotating black hole with four independent U(1) charges derived from string theory which is known as the four-dimensional Cvetic-Youm solution, and we prove that the same hidden conformal symmetry also holds. We obtain the exact black hole entropy using the temperatures derived. The entropy and absorption cross section agree with the previous results [M. Cvetic and F. Larsen, Nucl. Phys. B506, 107 (1997).] and [M. Cvetic and F. Larsen, J. High Energy Phys. 09 (2009) 088.]. In addition, we clarify a previous explanation on the temperatures of the Cvetic-Youm solution's dual CFT. This work provides more robust derivation of the hidden conformal symmetry of Kerr-like black holes and as well as Kerr/CFT correspondence.

  2. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  3. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  5. Implications of the measured angular anisotropy at the hidden order transition of URu2Si2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, P.; Coleman, P.; Flint, R.; Trinh, J.; Ramirez, A. P.

    2018-05-01

    The heavy fermion compound URu2Si2 continues to attract great interest due to the long-unidentified nature of the hidden order that develops below 17.5 K. Here we discuss the implications of an angular survey of the linear and nonlinear susceptibility of URu2Si2 in the vicinity of the hidden order transition [1]. While the anisotropic nature of spin fluctuations and low-temperature quasiparticles was previously established, our recent results suggest that the order parameter itself has intrinsic Ising anisotropy, and that moreover this anisotropy extends far above the hidden order transition. Consistency checks and subsequent questions for future experimental and theoretical studies of hidden order are discussed.

  6. The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, we study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We obtain sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the stochastic system is also obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number Rbar0 of the deterministic system. Results show that time delay has important effects on the persistence and extinction of the epidemic.

  7. Hidden sector dark matter and the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess: a closer look

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, Miguel; Witte, Samuel J.; Hooper, Dan

    2017-11-01

    Stringent constraints from direct detection experiments and the Large Hadron Collider motivate us to consider models in which the dark matter does not directly couple to the Standard Model, but that instead annihilates into hidden sector particles which ultimately decay through small couplings to the Standard Model. We calculate the gamma-ray emission generated within the context of several such hidden sector models, including those in which the hidden sector couples to the Standard Model through the vector portal (kinetic mixing with Standard Model hypercharge), through the Higgs portal (mixing with the Standard Model Higgs boson), or both. In each case, we identify broad regions of parameter space in which the observed spectrum and intensity of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess can easily be accommodated, while providing an acceptable thermal relic abundance and remaining consistent with all current constraints. We also point out that cosmic-ray antiproton measurements could potentially discriminate some hidden sector models from more conventional dark matter scenarios.

  8. Hidden Sector Dark Matter and the Galactic Center Gamma-Ray Excess: A Closer Look

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escudero, Miguel; Witte, Samuel J.; Hooper, Dan

    2017-09-20

    Stringent constraints from direct detection experiments and the Large Hadron Collider motivate us to consider models in which the dark matter does not directly couple to the Standard Model, but that instead annihilates into hidden sector particles which ultimately decay through small couplings to the Standard Model. We calculate the gamma-ray emission generated within the context of several such hidden sector models, including those in which the hidden sector couples to the Standard Model through the vector portal (kinetic mixing with Standard Model hypercharge), through the Higgs portal (mixing with the Standard Model Higgs boson), or both. In each case, we identify broad regions of parameter space in which the observed spectrum and intensity of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess can easily be accommodated, while providing an acceptable thermal relic abundance and remaining consistent with all current constraints. We also point out that cosmic-ray antiproton measurements could potentially discriminate some hidden sector models from more conventional dark matter scenarios.

  9. ESO's Hidden Treasures Brought to Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 astrophotography competition attracted nearly 100 entries, and ESO is delighted to announce the winners. Hidden Treasures gave amateur astronomers the opportunity to search ESO's vast archives of astronomical data for a well-hidden cosmic gem. Astronomy enthusiast Igor Chekalin from Russia won the first prize in this difficult but rewarding challenge - the trip of a lifetime to ESO's Very Large Telescope at Paranal, Chile. The pictures of the Universe that can be seen in ESO's releases are impressive. However, many hours of skilful work are required to assemble the raw greyscale data captured by the telescopes into these colourful images, correcting them for distortions and unwanted signatures of the instrument, and enhancing them so as to bring out the details contained in the astronomical data. ESO has a team of professional image processors, but for the ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 competition, the experts decided to give astronomy and photography enthusiasts the opportunity to show the world what they could do with the mammoth amount of data contained in ESO's archives. The enthusiasts who responded to the call submitted nearly 100 entries in total - far exceeding initial expectations, given the difficult nature of the challenge. "We were completely taken aback both by the quantity and the quality of the images that were submitted. This was not a challenge for the faint-hearted, requiring both an advanced knowledge of data processing and an artistic eye. We are thrilled to have discovered so many talented people," said Lars Lindberg Christensen, Head of ESO's education and Public Outreach Department. Digging through many terabytes of professional astronomical data, the entrants had to identify a series of greyscale images of a celestial object that would reveal the hidden beauty of our Universe. The chance of a great reward for the lucky winner was enough to spur on the competitors; the first prize being a trip to ESO's Very Large

  10. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  11. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  12. The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Chen, Qingmei; Jiang, Daqing

    2016-05-01

    This paper is concerned with the asymptotic properties of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic are established. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the epidemic is obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number R0 of the deterministic system.

  13. Cultural competence in medical education: aligning the formal, informal and hidden curricula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, David; Ewen, Shaun C; Jones, Rhys

    2014-12-01

    The concept of cultural competence has become reified by inclusion as an accreditation standard in the US and Canada, in New Zealand it is demanded through an Act of Parliament, and it pervades discussion in Australian medical education discourse. However, there is evidence that medical graduates feel poorly prepared to deliver cross-cultural care (Weissman et al. in J Am Med Assoc 294(9):1058-1067, 2005) and many commentators have questioned the effectiveness of cultural competence curricula. In this paper we apply Hafferty's taxonomy of curricula, the formal, informal and hidden curriculum (Hafferty in Acad Med 73(4):403-407, 1998), to cultural competence. Using an example across each of these curricular domains, we highlight the need for curricular congruence to support cultural competence development among learners. We argue that much of the focus on cultural competence has been in the realm of formal curricula, with existing informal and hidden curricula which may be at odds with the formal curriculum. The focus of the formal, informal and hidden curriculum, we contend, should be to address disparities in health care outcomes. In conclusion, we suggest that without congruence between formal, informal and hidden curricula, approaches to addressing disparity in health care outcomes in medical education may continue to represent reform without change.

  14. The Hidden Curriculum of Veterinary Education: Mediators and Moderators of Its Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roder, Carrie A; May, Stephen A

    The "hidden curriculum" has long been supposed to have an effect on students' learning during their clinical education, and in particular in shaping their ideas of what it means to be a professional. Despite this, there has been little evidence linking specific changes in professional attitudes to the individual components of the hidden curriculum. This study aimed to recognize those components that led to a change in students' professional attitudes at a UK veterinary school, as well as to identify the attitudes most affected. Observations were made of 11 student groups across five clinical rotations, followed by semi-structured interviews with 23 students at the end of their rotation experience. Data were combined and analyzed thematically, taking both an inductive and deductive approach. Views about the importance of technical competence and communication skills were promoted as a result of students' interaction with the hidden curriculum, and tensions were revealed in relation to their attitudes toward compassion and empathy, autonomy and responsibility, and lifestyle ethic. The assessment processes of rotations and the clinical service organization served to communicate the messages of the hidden curriculum, bringing about changes in student professional attitudes, while student-selected role models and the student rotation groups moderated the effects of these influences.

  15. The Hidden Gifts of Quiet Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trierweiler, Hannah

    2006-01-01

    The author relates that she was an introvert child. It has always taken her time and energy to find her place in a group. As a grown-up, she still needed quiet time to regroup during a busy day. In this article, the author presents an interview with Marti Olsen Laney, author of "The Hidden Gifts of the Introverted Child." During the interview,…

  16. A Rose By Other Names: Some General Musings on Lawrence and Colleagues' Hidden Curriculum Scoping Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafferty, Frederic W; Martimianakis, Maria Athina

    2017-11-07

    In this Commentary, the authors explore the scoping review by Lawrence and colleagues by challenging their conclusion that with over 25 years' worth of "ambiguous and seemingly ubiquitous use" of the hidden curriculum construct in health professions education scholarship, it is time to either move to a more uniform definitional foundation or abandon the term altogether. The commentary authors counter these remedial propositions by foregrounding the importance of theoretical diversity and the conceptual richness afforded when the hidden curriculum construct is used as an entry point for studying the interstitial space between the formal and a range of other-than-formal domains of learning. Further, they document how tightly-delimited scoping strategies fail to capture the wealth of educational scholarship that operates within a hidden curriculum framework, including "hidden" hidden curriculum articles, studies that employ alternative constructs, and investigations that target important tacit socio-cultural influences on learners and faculty without formally deploying the term. They offer examples of how the hidden curriculum construct, while undergoing significant transformation in its application within the field of health professions education, has created the conceptual foundation for the application of a number of critical perspectives that make visible the field's political investments in particular forms of knowing and associated practices. Finally, the commentary authors invite readers to consider the methodological promise afforded by conceptual heterogeneity, particularly strands of scholarship that resituate the hidden curriculum concept within the magically expansive dance of social relationships, social learning, and social life that form the learning environments of health professions education.

  17. Retrospective Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkins, Katherine E; Pandey, Abhishek; Wenzel, Natasha S; Skrip, Laura; Yamin, Dan; Nyenswah, Tolbert G; Fallah, Mosoka; Bawo, Luke; Medlock, Jan; Altice, Frederick L; Townsend, Jeffrey; Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L; Galvani, Alison P

    2016-04-01

    The 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic has been the most protracted and devastating in the history of the disease. To prevent future outbreaks on this scale, it is imperative to understand the reasons that led to eventual disease control. Here, we evaluated the shifts of Ebola dynamics at national and local scales during the epidemic in Liberia. We used a transmission model calibrated to epidemiological data between June 9 and December 31, 2014, to estimate the extent of community and hospital transmission. We found that despite varied local epidemic patterns, community transmission was reduced by 40-80% in all the counties analyzed. Our model suggests that the tapering of the epidemic was achieved through reductions in community transmission, rather than accumulation of immune individuals through asymptomatic infection and unreported cases. Although the times at which this transmission reduction occurred in the majority of the Liberian counties started before any large expansion in hospital capacity and the distribution of home protection kits, it remains difficult to associate the presence of interventions with reductions in Ebola incidence. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  18. [Scabies epidemic in a sheltered workshop--what should be done?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, J; Wever, S; Lurz, C; Bröcker, E B

    2000-02-01

    Scabies is an infectious parasitic skin disease with a notable rising incidence in Germany. The disease is usually transmitted by close physical contact, but indirect spread e.g. by bedding is also possible. Due to its contagiousness, introduction of scabies into crowding living facilities, such as dormitories or kindergartens, can easily cause an epidemic outbreak. We describe an epidemic of scabies in a workshop for handicapped people in February 1998. A worker with severe scabies reported that numerous colleagues in both workshop and the associated hostel had complained of pruritus for months and that some of them already had undergone scabicide treatment. The number of contacts (staff, colleagues, friends, attendants, family) of our patient and the other already affected people was more than 460. The management of the workshop asked for help in handling the epidemic. We describe the cooperative efforts of the management, as well as hospital and private dermatologists, to evaluate all potential contacts and present a concept of treatment for the termination of such an epidemic outbreak of scabies.

  19. Multiple effects of self-protection on the spreading of epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zhigang; Zhang, Haifeng; Wang, Zhen

    2014-01-01

    Aside from the commonly considered strategies: vaccination or risk, in this work another basic policy self-protection strategy is incorporated into research of epidemics spreading. Then within the network-theoretical framework, we mainly explore the impact of self-protection strategy on the epidemic size and the eradication of infection. Interestingly, we find that the self-protection influence is multiple: given that the effectiveness of the self-protective strategy is negligible, nobody is willing to take up this act, both vaccination and risk traits dominate the whole system; On the contrary, when the effectiveness of self-protective policy is elevated, it becomes a popular strategy and the size of epidemic can be controlled at a relatively low level. However, one worse situation is present as well: when the effectiveness of self-protection is moderate, the infection probability and epidemic size can reach the maximal level. This is because that, under such a case, the emergence of the self-protective strategy neither inspires the enthusiasm of vaccination nor provides ideal effect

  20. [Paediatric emergencies; example of the management of winter epidemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercier, Jean-Christophe; Bellettre, Xavier; Lejay, Émilie; Desmarest, Marie; Titomanlio, Luigi

    2015-01-01

    Every year, epidemics of viral bronchiolitis and gastroenteritis occur with a significant increase in the number of visits (by a factor 1.8) and hospitalisations that can over-exceed bed capacity leading to transfer sick children to other hospitals. This kind of hospital 'crisis' is not limited to paediatrics, big cities or western nations. It is a worldwide worrying problem. Because our hospital sits in the Northern districts of Paris where a large community of m.ncants lives in poverty, our number of visits is high (mean 250 per day), and winter epidemics further jeopardise the difficult equilibrium achieved between quality management and waiting times. Thus, we have taken various initiatives in terms of organisation of the paediatric emergency department and other wards, including a "fast track" clinic, the opening of beds dedicated to winter epidemics, the institution of a "bed manager" in order to more easily find a bed, and a larger use of home hospitalisations. Furthermore, we created a specific committee which may decide on various indicators of tension whether it is necessary to cancel programmed hospitalisations or surgery.in order to resolve the emergency crisis. This kind of organisation can serve as a model for other hospitals facing winter epidemics crises.