WorldWideScience

Sample records for injuries hidden epidemic

  1. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  2. Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities and social pressures ... It frames risk in the context of the dynamics governing sexuality, underlined ... MSM risk and practice, in these contexts, are consequently shaped by ...

  3. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  4. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  5. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity has become a worldwide epidemic, and its prevalence has been projected to grow by 40% in the next decade. This increasing prevalence has implications for the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and also for Chronic Kidney Disease. A high body mass index is one of the strongest risk factors for new-onset ...

  6. A hidden HIV epidemic among women in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tran Hien

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The HIV epidemic in Vietnam is still concentrated among high risk populations, including IDU and FSW. The response of the government has focused on the recognized high risk populations, mainly young male drug users. This concentration on one high risk population may leave other populations under-protected or unprepared for the risk and the consequences of HIV infection. In particular, attention to women's risks of exposure and needs for care may not receive sufficient attention as long as the perception persists that the epidemic is predominantly among young males. Without more knowledge of the epidemic among women, policy makers and planners cannot ensure that programs will also serve women's needs. Methods More than 300 documents appearing in the period 1990 to 2005 were gathered and reviewed to build an understanding of HIV infection and related risk behaviors among women and of the changes over time that may suggest needed policy changes. Results It appears that the risk of HIV transmission among women in Vietnam has been underestimated; the reported data may represent as little as 16% of the real number. Although modeling predicted that there would be 98,500 cases of HIV-infected women in 2005, only 15,633 were accounted for in reports from the health system. That could mean that in 2005, up to 83,000 women infected with HIV have not been detected by the health care system, for a number of possible reasons. For both detection and prevention, these women can be divided into sub-groups with different risk characteristics. They can be infected by sharing needles and syringes with IDU partners, or by having unsafe sex with clients, husbands or lovers. However, most new infections among women can be traced to sexual relations with young male injecting drug users engaged in extramarital sex. Each of these groups may need different interventions to increase the detection rate and thus ensure that the women receive the care they

  7. Traumatic brain injury, the hidden pandemic: A focused response to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) has many potential cognitive, behavioural and psychological consequences, and contributes significantly to the national burden of disease and to ongoing violent behaviour. Few resources are available for the rehabilitation of patients with TBI in South Africa, and access to ...

  8. Severe head injury in children - a preventable but forgotten epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Severe head injury in a child is a sociological disaster that crosses all sociological ... permanently disabled each year as a result of accidental injury." Over a ..... the daylight when transportation of the patient is more rapid; this results in some ...

  9. Heely injuries: a new epidemic warranting a government health warning!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenehan, B; Callender, O; McIntyre, A; Boran, S; Moore, D; Fogarty, E; Dowling, F

    2007-08-01

    Heelys, the new craze gripping the nation, were first introduced to Ireland in 2005 having been available in the United States since 2000. Designed as "the only shoe with a removable wheel in the sole" and initially marketed among rollerbladers and skateboarders they have been adopted by children as contemporary footwear. From April to June 2006, all patients presenting to trauma orthopaedic services at our institutions with injuries sustained while wearing Heelys were included in this study. Thirty-nine patients are included in this study. The mean age was 9.1 years (range 7-13, median 9 years). Of the 39 patients referred to the orthopaedic service, 8 required admissions to hospital. One patient admitted following a head injury, required craniotomy and evacuation of an extradural haematoma. The significance of the injuries encountered demonstrates the potentially devastating results from the use of Heelys. The public perception of safety is incorrect and manufacturers rightly recommend strongly the use of safety gear.

  10. The Hierarchy of Control in the Epidemic of Farm Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dosman, James; Hagel, Louise; King, Nathan; Koehncke, Niels; Kirychuk, Shelley; Trask, Catherine; Neudorf, Joshua; Day, Lesley; Voaklander, Donald; Pickett, William

    2015-01-01

    The application of the hierarchy of control (HOC) is a well-established approach to hazard reduction in industrial workplaces. However, it has not been generally applied in farm workplaces. The objective was to determine current practices of farmers in the context of a modified HOC, and the effect of these practices on farm injury outcomes. A self-reported mail survey of 1196 Saskatchewan farm operations was conducted in 2013. Selected survey questions were used as proxy measures of the farm owner-operator's practices relevant to each of the six steps of increasing importance in a modified HOC: (1) hazard identification; (2) risk assessment; (3) personal protection; (4) administrative controls; (5) engineering controls; and (6) elimination of the hazard. Analysis used basic descriptive statistics and logistic regression to examine associations of interest. When four of the six HOC steps were adhered to, there was a significant protective effect: odds ratio (OR) = 0.32 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.14-0.74) for any injury and OR = 0.27 (95% CI: 0.07-0.99) for serious injury in the overall study population. For farm owner-operators utilizing four of the six steps in the modified HOC, there was a significant protective effect for any injury (OR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.11-0.83). Although there is a considerable absence of use of elements of the HOC among farm operators, for farmers who adhere to these steps, there is a significant reduction in their risk for injury. Prevention strategies that embrace the practice of these principles may be effective in the control of farm workplace injury.

  11. People ageing with spinal cord injury in New Zealand: a hidden population? The need for a spinal cord injury registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smaill, Richard; Schluter, Philip J; Barnett, Pauline; Keeling, Sally

    2016-07-15

    To identify and establish a research database of ageing New Zealand people who sustained a traumatic or non-traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) before 1990. All living New Zealand residents incurring a SCI before 1 January 1990 were eligible. A co-ordinated consultation with apposite New Zealand organisations was undertaken to identify and access existing SCI databases, and remove duplicate or ineligible records. 1,400 people were identified. Using the national patient information management system to determine eligibility, 1,174 people remained after exclusions; 600 (51.1%) through the Auckland Spinal Rehabilitation Unit and 574 (48.9%) through the Burwood Spinal Unit. Common to both databases were people's National Health Index number, contact details, basic demographic data, date of injury, and neurological level of SCI. An unexpectedly large SCI population was uncovered; a population largely hidden due to the uncoordinated, fragmented and inconsistently collected information held within different organisations. As life expectancy rapidly increases for those with SCI, coupled with an accelerated ageing general population, this hidden SCI population can be expected to grow. A single, well-managed and coordinated national SCI registry is urgently needed in New Zealand for planning and delivery of services, especially for those developing age-related complex interwoven secondary conditions.

  12. HIV among gay and other men who have sex with men in Latin America and the Caribbean: a hidden epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cáceres, Carlos F

    2002-12-01

    To assess the epidemiological and social/cultural context of, and the social response to, the HIV epidemic among gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in Latin America and the Caribbean. A review of epidemiological surveillance reports to the Pan American Health Organization/UNAIDS; published studies on HIV prevalence/incidence among MSM in the region; social/cultural studies on homosexuality; documents analysing risk and vulnerability among MSM and publications documenting the social response to the MSM epidemic. The regional HIV epidemic is concentrated in MSM populations in most urban centres (HIV prevalence 5-20%). Incidence rates (1.5-3.3 in Brazil and Peru) are still moderately high, and call for continued programmatic action. Transmission from bisexual men to women is increasingly observed, demonstrating that the neglect of intervention will fuel co-existent epidemics. MSM in the region are culturally diverse, with mediation of social class, sex, and ethnicity. Around core gay subcultures, non-gay identified MSM interact with them and frequently exchange sex for goods. Examples are shown of sexual meanings affecting prevention messages focused on individual risk, as well as of the role of structural vulnerability on potential exposure to infection, calling for programmes beyond individual rational decision-making. The social response to the AIDS epidemic has, in most countries, included programmes oriented to MSM, usually from civil society organizations, and has strengthened gay organizing. Renewed, imaginative efforts are needed from governments and community organizations to strengthen culturally sensitive prevention work, and integrate it into community empowerment and the promotion of sexual rights.

  13. Does the declining lethality of gunshot injuries mask a rising epidemic of gun violence in the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jena, Anupam B; Sun, Eric C; Prasad, Vinay

    2014-07-01

    Recent mass shootings in the U.S. have reignited the important public health debate concerning measures to decrease the epidemic of gun violence. Editorialists and gun lobbyists have criticized the recent focus on gun violence, arguing that gun-related homicide rates have been stable in the last decade. While true, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also demonstrate that although gun-related homicide rates were stable between 2002 and 2011, rates of violent gunshot injuries increased. These seemingly paradoxical trends may reflect the declining lethality of gunshot injuries brought about by surgical advances in the care of the patient with penetrating trauma. Focusing on gun-related homicide rates as a summary statistic of gun violence, rather than total violent gunshot injuries, can therefore misrepresent the rising epidemic of gun violence in the U.S.

  14. Injuries to children in the United States related to trampolines, 1990-1995: a national epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, G A

    1998-03-01

    To describe the epidemiology of trampoline-related injuries among children in the United States. A retrospective analysis of data for children 18 years old and younger from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System of the United States Consumer Product Safety Commission for 1990 through 1995. There were an estimated 249 400 trampoline-related injuries [95% confidence interval (CI), 166 300-332 500] to children 18 years old and younger treated in hospital emergency departments in the United States during the 6-year study period. The number of injuries increased by 98% from 29 600 in 1990 to 58 400 in 1995, with an average of 41 600 (95% CI, 27 700-55 500) injuries per year, or 59.4 injuries per 100 000 United States children per year (95% CI, 39.6-79.3). The median age of injured children was 10 years, and 50% were males. Ninety-three percent of injuries occurred at home. Injuries to the extremities predominated among children of all ages and accounted for more than 70% of all injuries. This study identified several age-specific injury patterns. There was an inverse relationship between age versus the relative frequency of upper extremity injuries, and fractures and dislocations; and there was a direct relationship between age versus lower extremity injuries and soft tissue injury. There was also an inverse relationship between age versus facial injuries, head and neck injuries, and lacerations. Annually, an estimated 1400 children (95% CI, 800-2000), or 2.0 per 100 000 United States children (95% CI, 1. 1-2.9), required hospital admission or interhospital transfer because of a trampoline-related injury. This represented 3.3% of all children with a trampoline-associated injury. Fractures or dislocations accounted for 83% of injuries among admitted or transferred children, and children with a fracture or dislocation were more likely to be admitted or transferred to another hospital (8.4%) than children with other types of injury (relative risk, 10.80; 95% CI

  15. Low serum hdl-c levels: a hidden threat to patients with spinal cord injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S.; Ayyub, A.

    2014-01-01

    To determine the serum lipid profile in patients with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) of duration >1 year and to compare the serum HDL-c levels of SCI patients undergoing regular physiotherapy for >60 minutes daily with those who did not Undergo physiotherapy. Study Design: Cross-sectional, comparative study. Place and Duration of Study: Spinal Cord Injury Department, AFIRM Rawalpindi and Department of Chemical Pathology, Army Medical College, Rawalpindi, from January 2013 to June 2013. Patients and Methods: Forty six patients suffering from traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) were included. After recording the detailed medical history, fasting blood samples were obtained and analyzed for serum lipid profile. Dyslipidemias were assessed using guidelines from the National Cholesterol Education Project Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III). Serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c)< 0.9 mmol/l (40mg/dl) was considered as low HDL-c level. Results: Out of total 46 patients, 33 (71.7%) were male and 13 (28.3%) were females with mean age of 34.9+- 9.55 years. Low levels of serum HDL-c were found in 21 (45.7%) SCI patients (mean serum HDL-clevels: 0.97+-0.23). SCI patients were further categorized in two groups depending upon the status of regular physiotherapy. Statistically significant difference was found in mean serum HDL-c levels of 22 (47.82%) SCI patients undergoing regular physiotherapy as compared to 24 (52.18%) SCI patients who did not underwent physiotherapy (p<0.05). Conclusion: Patients with SCI have decreased levels of serum HDL-c, imparting an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in these disabled persons. SCI individuals following regular physiotherapy, have better serum HDL-c levels as compared to bed-ridden SCI patients, suggesting the physical activity as an important factor to elevate the serum HDL-c in such patients. Knowledge of relative risk of CVD in persons with SCI is important for appropriate intervention alstrategies

  16. Hidden loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kieffer-Kristensen, Rikke; Johansen, Karen Lise Gaardsvig

    2013-01-01

    to participate. RESULTS: All children were affected by their parents' ABI and the altered family situation. The children's expressions led the authors to identify six themes, including fear of losing the parent, distress and estrangement, chores and responsibilities, hidden loss, coping and support. The main......PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to listen to and learn from children showing high levels of post-traumatic stress symptoms after parental acquired brain injury (ABI), in order to achieve an in-depth understanding of the difficulties the children face in their everyday lives...... finding indicates that the children experienced numerous losses, many of which were often suppressed or neglected by the children to protect the ill parents. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicated that the children seemed to make a special effort to hide their feelings of loss and grief in order to protect...

  17. Hidden Liquidity

    OpenAIRE

    Cebiroglu, Gökhan; Horst, Ulrich

    2012-01-01

    We cross-sectionally analyze the presence of aggregated hidden depth and trade volume in the S&P 500 and identify its key determinants. We find that the spread is the main predictor for a stock’s hidden dimension, both in terms of traded and posted liquidity. Our findings moreover suggest that large hidden orders are associated with larger transaction costs, higher price impact and increased volatility. In particular, as large hidden orders fail to attract (latent) liquidity to the market, hi...

  18. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    ... of Sexually Transmitted Diseases INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE Division of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files XML from other this ...

  19. Fibroid Tumors in Women: A Hidden Epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... not only shuts down the body's production of progesterone. It also shuts down production of estrogen, another sex hormone. Since abruptly depriving the body of estrogen causes hot flashes and prolonged estrogen deprivation can ... would block progesterone while leaving estrogen alone. In theory, such a ...

  20. Surgical management of cutaneous infection caused by atypical mycobacteria after penetrating injury: the hidden dangers of horticulture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, J; Smith, C; Childs, P A; Holland, A J

    1997-02-01

    We identified two patients in a 12-month period who presented with cutaneous infection and secondary lymph node involvement from atypical mycobacterial infection after minor gardening injuries. One patient had a coinfection with Nocardia asteroides. Both patients required multiple surgical interventions, despite appropriate antibiotic therapy, before resolution of the disease. The course of the infection was characterized by chronic relapses with complete healing at 12 to 18 months after the original injury. The identification and management of this clinical problem are reviewed.

  1. Survivors of a Silent Epidemic: The Learning Experience of College Students with a History of Traumatic Brain Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlessman, Heather A.

    2010-01-01

    A significant proportion of young adults experience a traumatic brain injury (TBI) every year, and students with this history are becoming a growing presence on college campuses. A review of the literature revealed very little research exploring the learning experiences of college students with a history of traumatic brain injury. The purpose of…

  2. A retrospective study on the unseen epidemic of road traffic injuries and deaths due to accidents in Mwanza City - Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngallaba, S E; Majinge, C; Gilyoma, J; Makerere, D J; Charles, E

    2013-06-01

    Sixty percent of the global deaths and injuries occur in the developing world and mostly are due to Road traffic accidents (RTAs. looking at the etiological related factors which include, carelessness of the driver, condition of the vehicle or motorcycle, poor condition of roads, risky behavior of the driver, most of these factors can be prevented to some extent. This study therefore, determined the pattern of cases and deaths due to traffic road accidents in Mwanza City Tanzania. In this retrospective study, records, registers and case notes In the surgical ward and causality, medical records and central police station from 2008 to 2011 were used. The study focused on the two referral hospitals (Sekouture regional hospital and Bugando Medical Center). There were 3450 cases due to accidents reported at both centers (Sekouture regional hospital and Bugando Medical Center of which 3224 (93.4%) had complete information for analysis.2225 (69%) were male and 999 (31%) were female, and the most affected group were male. Among the RTAs2809 cases (87%) were due to motor cycle accidents which were the leading cause of RTAs with case fatality rate of 5% while motor vehicle has case fatality rate of 24% which is 5 times that of motor cycle. Among all RTAs the leading cause of injuries is Motor cycle traffic accidents followed by motor vehicle. RTAs are on increase particularly the motor cycle traffic accidents and has claimed a good number of innocent people's lives however most of them are preventable, therefore driving course to be introduced to motor cycle drivers with emphasize on the road posters signal, rules and regular checkup of their motor cycles especially commercial motor cycle.

  3. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  4. Sociology of Hidden Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Moradi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the concept of hidden curriculum in the sociological theories and wants to explain sociological aspects of formation of hidden curriculum. The main question concentrates on the theoretical approaches in which hidden curriculum is explained sociologically.For this purpose it was applied qualitative research methodology. The relevant data include various sociological concepts and theories of hidden curriculum collected by the documentary method. The study showed a set of rules, procedures, relationships and social structure of education have decisive role in the formation of hidden curriculum. A hidden curriculum reinforces by existed inequalities among learners (based on their social classes or statues. There is, in fact, a balance between the learner's "knowledge receptions" with their "inequality proportion".The hidden curriculum studies from different major sociological theories such as Functionalism, Marxism and critical theory, Symbolic internationalism and Feminism. According to the functionalist perspective a hidden curriculum has a social function because it transmits social values. Marxists and critical thinkers correlate between hidden curriculum and the totality of social structure. They depicts that curriculum prepares learners for the exploitation in the work markets. Symbolic internationalism rejects absolute hegemony of hidden curriculum on education and looks to the socialization as a result of interaction between learner and instructor. Feminism theory also considers hidden curriculum as a vehicle which legitimates gender stereotypes.

  5. The incidence and burden of hospital-treated sports-related injury in people aged 15+ years in Victoria, Australia, 2004-2010: a future epidemic of osteoarthritis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, C F; Kemp, J L; Clapperton, A J

    2015-07-01

    Previous sports injury is a known risk factor for subsequent osteoarthritis (OA), but population-based rates of sports injury are unknown. The aims of this study were to: (1) describe the trends in the population incidence and burden of all hospital-treated sports injury in Victoria, Australia in adults aged 15+ years; (2) determine the incidence of lower limb and knee injuries; and (3) quantify their population health burden as average direct hospital costs per injury and lengths of stay. Health sector data relating to adults aged 15+ years, for 2004-2010 inclusive, was extracted from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD). Data relating to sports injuries were identified using activity codes in each dataset Trends in injury frequency and rates were determined, and economic burden was calculated. The overall annual rate of hospital treated sports injuries increased by 24% (P = 0.001), and lower limb injuries by 26% (P = 0.001) over the 7 years. The associated accumulated economic burden was $265 million for all sports injuries and $110 million for lower limb injuries over the 7-years. The findings of this study show a significant increase in sports injuries in the state of Victoria, Australia over a 7-year period. As previous sports injury is a risk factor for the development of OA, the future incidence of OA will escalate, placing an even greater burden on health care systems. Population-wide preventative strategies that reduce the risk of sports injury are urgently required in order to reduce the future burden of OA. Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. POVMs and hidden variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stairs, Allen

    2007-01-01

    Recent results by Paul Busch and Adan Cabello claim to show that by appealing to POVMs, non-contextual hidden variables can be ruled out in two dimensions. While the results of Busch and Cabello are mathematically correct, interpretive problems render them problematic as no hidden variable proofs

  7. Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rissanen, Jorma

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) are introduced. They differ from the ordinary HMM's in that both the transition probabilities of the hidden states and the output probabilities are conditioned on past observations. As an illustration they are applied to black and white image compression where...

  8. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  9. Hidden gauge symmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Raifeartaigh, L.

    1979-01-01

    This review describes the principles of hidden gauge symmetry and of its application to the fundamental interactions. The emphasis is on the structure of the theory rather than on the technical details and, in order to emphasise the structure, gauge symmetry and hidden symmetry are first treated as independent phenomena before being combined into a single (hidden gauge symmetric) theory. The main application of the theory is to the weak and electromagnetic interactions of the elementary particles, and although models are used for comparison with experiment and for illustration, emphasis is placed on those features of the application which are model-independent. (author)

  10. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    for chronic kidney disease (CKD), like diabetes and hypertension, and it has a direct impact .... meta-analysis, kidney cancers had the third highest risk associated with obesity (relative ..... Ellington AA, Malik AR, Klee GG, et al. Association of ...

  11. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity has also been shown to be a risk factor for nephrolithiasis, and for a number of malignancies including kidney cancer. This year World Kidney Day promotes education on the harmful consequences of obesity and its association with kidney disease, advocating a healthy lifestyle and health policy measures that ...

  12. Weighing in on the hidden Asian American obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Stella S; Kwon, Simona C; Wyatt, Laura; Islam, Nadia; Trinh-Shevrin, Chau

    2015-04-01

    According to national estimates, obesity prevalence is lower in Asian Americans compared to other racial/ethnic groups, but this low prevalence may be misleading for three reasons. First, a lower body mass index (BMI) cutoff as proposed by the World Health Organization may be more appropriate to use in Asian populations. However, evidence is limited to substantiate the potential costs and burden of adopting these cutoffs. Increasing BMI in Asians (as in other racial/ethnic groups) should be considered across the spectrum of BMI, with a minimum awareness of these lower cutoffs among healthcare researchers. Second, the need for disaggregated data across Asian American subgroups is illustrated by the higher obesity (and diabetes) prevalence estimates observed in South Asian Americans. Third, prevalence of obesity should be placed in the larger context of immigration and globalization through cross-national comparisons and examination of acculturation-related factors. However these types of studies and collection of salient variables are not routinely performed. Data from a metropolitan area where many Asian Americans settle is presented as a case study to illustrate these points. Clear evidence that incorporates these three considerations is necessary for program planning and resource allocation for obesity-related disparities in this rapidly growing and diverse population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    factors for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), like diabetes and hypertension, and it ... Epidemiology of obesity in adults and children. Over the last 3 .... Table 1. Studies examining the association of obesity with various measures of CKD. Study.

  14. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SCIENTIFIC LETTERS ..... documentation of existing knowledge distilling the risk and the ... obese people, and new trials in this population to fill knowledge ..... Carey D, Appel LJ, Grams ME: Bariatric surgery is associated with improvement in.

  15. The hidden universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Disney, M.

    1985-01-01

    Astronomer Disney has followed a somewhat different tack than that of most popular books on cosmology by concentrating on the notion of hidden (as in not directly observable by its own radiation) matter in the universe

  16. Locating Hidden Servers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Oeverlier, Lasse; Syverson, Paul F

    2006-01-01

    .... Announced properties include server resistance to distributed DoS. Both the EFF and Reporters Without Borders have issued guides that describe using hidden services via Tor to protect the safety of dissidents as well as to resist censorship...

  17. Hidden charged dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Jonathan L.; Kaplinghat, Manoj; Tu, Huitzu; Yu, Hai-Bo

    2009-01-01

    Can dark matter be stabilized by charge conservation, just as the electron is in the standard model? We examine the possibility that dark matter is hidden, that is, neutral under all standard model gauge interactions, but charged under an exact (\\rm U)(1) gauge symmetry of the hidden sector. Such candidates are predicted in WIMPless models, supersymmetric models in which hidden dark matter has the desired thermal relic density for a wide range of masses. Hidden charged dark matter has many novel properties not shared by neutral dark matter: (1) bound state formation and Sommerfeld-enhanced annihilation after chemical freeze out may reduce its relic density, (2) similar effects greatly enhance dark matter annihilation in protohalos at redshifts of z ∼ 30, (3) Compton scattering off hidden photons delays kinetic decoupling, suppressing small scale structure, and (4) Rutherford scattering makes such dark matter self-interacting and collisional, potentially impacting properties of the Bullet Cluster and the observed morphology of galactic halos. We analyze all of these effects in a WIMPless model in which the hidden sector is a simplified version of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the dark matter is a hidden sector stau. We find that charged hidden dark matter is viable and consistent with the correct relic density for reasonable model parameters and dark matter masses in the range 1 GeV ∼ X ∼< 10 TeV. At the same time, in the preferred range of parameters, this model predicts cores in the dark matter halos of small galaxies and other halo properties that may be within the reach of future observations. These models therefore provide a viable and well-motivated framework for collisional dark matter with Sommerfeld enhancement, with novel implications for astrophysics and dark matter searches

  18. Search for Hidden Particles

    CERN Multimedia

    Solovev, V

    The SHiP Experiment is a new general-purpose fixed target facility at the SPS to search for hidden particles as predicted by a very large number of recently elaborated models of Hidden Sectors which are capable of accommodating dark matter, neutrino oscillations, and the origin of the full baryon asymmetry in the Universe. Specifically, the experiment is aimed at searching for very weakly interacting long lived particles including Heavy Neutral Leptons - right-handed partners of the active neutrinos; light supersymmetric particles - sgoldstinos, etc.; scalar, axion and vector portals to the hidden sector. The high intensity of the SPS and in particular the large production of charm mesons with the 400 GeV beam allow accessing a wide variety of light long-lived exotic particles of such models and of SUSY. Moreover, the facility is ideally suited to study the interactions of tau neutrinos.

  19. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  20. The hidden values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Birgitte; Jensen, Karsten Klint

    “The Hidden Values - Transparency in Decision-Making Processes Dealing with Hazardous Activities”. The report seeks to shed light on what is needed to create a transparent framework for political and administrative decisions on the use of GMOs and chemical products. It is our hope that the report...

  1. Hidden neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose; Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1999-01-01

    A general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMMs) and neural networks (NNs) called hidden neural networks (HNNs) is described. The article begins by reviewing standard HMMs and estimation by conditional maximum likelihood, which is used by the HNN. In the HNN, the usual HMM probability...... parameters are replaced by the outputs of state-specific neural networks. As opposed to many other hybrids, the HNN is normalized globally and therefore has a valid probabilistic interpretation. All parameters in the HNN are estimated simultaneously according to the discriminative conditional maximum...... likelihood criterion. The HNN can be viewed as an undirected probabilistic independence network (a graphical model), where the neural networks provide a compact representation of the clique functions. An evaluation of the HNN on the task of recognizing broad phoneme classes in the TIMIT database shows clear...

  2. A hidden history

    OpenAIRE

    Peppers, Emily

    2008-01-01

    The Cultural Collections Audit project began at the University of Edinburgh in 2004, searching for hidden treasures in its 'distributed heritage collections' across the university. The objects and collections recorded in the Audit ranged widely from fine art and furniture to historical scientific and teaching equipment and personalia relating to key figures in the university's long tradition of academic excellence. This information was gathered in order to create a central database of informa...

  3. Distinguishing Hidden Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Kiefer, Stefan; Sistla, A. Prasad

    2015-01-01

    Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of distinguishing two given HMCs based on an observation sequence that one of the HMCs generates. More precisely, given two HMCs and an observation sequence, a distinguishing algorithm is expected to identify the HMC that generates the observation sequence. Two HM...

  4. Coupling of Hidden Sector

    OpenAIRE

    Królikowski, Wojciech

    2016-01-01

    A hypothetic Hidden Sector of the Universe, consisting of sterile fer\\-mions (``sterinos'') and sterile mediating bosons (``sterons'') of mass dimension 1 (not 2!) --- the last described by an antisymmetric tensor field --- requires to exist also a scalar isovector and scalar isoscalar in order to be able to construct electroweak invariant coupling (before spontaneously breaking its symmetry). The introduced scalar isoscalar might be a resonant source for the diphoton excess of 750 GeV, sugge...

  5. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  6. Localization of hidden Chua's attractors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonov, G.A.; Kuznetsov, N.V.; Vagaitsev, V.I.

    2011-01-01

    The classical attractors of Lorenz, Rossler, Chua, Chen, and other widely-known attractors are those excited from unstable equilibria. From computational point of view this allows one to use numerical method, in which after transient process a trajectory, started from a point of unstable manifold in the neighborhood of equilibrium, reaches an attractor and identifies it. However there are attractors of another type: hidden attractors, a basin of attraction of which does not contain neighborhoods of equilibria. In the present Letter for localization of hidden attractors of Chua's circuit it is suggested to use a special analytical-numerical algorithm. -- Highlights: → There are hidden attractors: basin doesn't contain neighborhoods of equilibria. → Hidden attractors cannot be reached by trajectory from neighborhoods of equilibria. → We suggested special procedure for localization of hidden attractors. → We discovered hidden attractor in Chua's system, L. Chua in his work didn't expect this.

  7. Hidden Liquidity: Determinants and Impact

    OpenAIRE

    Gökhan Cebiroglu; Ulrich Horst

    2012-01-01

    We cross-sectionally analyze the presence of aggregated hidden depth and trade volume in the S&P 500 and identify its key determinants. We find that the spread is the main predictor for a stock’s hidden dimension, both in terms of traded and posted liquidity. Our findings moreover suggest that large hidden orders are associated with larger transaction costs, higher price impact and increased volatility. In particular, as large hidden orders fail to attract (latent) liquidity to the market, ...

  8. Hidden Risk Factors for Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... A.S.T. Quiz Hidden Stroke Risk Factors for Women Updated:Nov 22,2016 Excerpted from "What Women Need To Know About The Hidden Risk Factors ... 2012) This year, more than 100,000 U.S. women under 65 will have a stroke. Stroke is ...

  9. Higgs Portal into Hidden Sectors

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2007-01-01

    Several attractive theoretical ideas suggest the existence of one or more 'hidden sectors' consisting of standard model singlet fields, some of which may not be too heavy. There is a profound reason to think that the Higgs sector might provide the first access to these hidden sectors. This scenario could affect Higgs phenomenology in drastic ways.

  10. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  11. Hidden attractors in dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudkowski, Dawid; Jafari, Sajad; Kapitaniak, Tomasz; Kuznetsov, Nikolay V.; Leonov, Gennady A.; Prasad, Awadhesh

    2016-06-01

    Complex dynamical systems, ranging from the climate, ecosystems to financial markets and engineering applications typically have many coexisting attractors. This property of the system is called multistability. The final state, i.e., the attractor on which the multistable system evolves strongly depends on the initial conditions. Additionally, such systems are very sensitive towards noise and system parameters so a sudden shift to a contrasting regime may occur. To understand the dynamics of these systems one has to identify all possible attractors and their basins of attraction. Recently, it has been shown that multistability is connected with the occurrence of unpredictable attractors which have been called hidden attractors. The basins of attraction of the hidden attractors do not touch unstable fixed points (if exists) and are located far away from such points. Numerical localization of the hidden attractors is not straightforward since there are no transient processes leading to them from the neighborhoods of unstable fixed points and one has to use the special analytical-numerical procedures. From the viewpoint of applications, the identification of hidden attractors is the major issue. The knowledge about the emergence and properties of hidden attractors can increase the likelihood that the system will remain on the most desirable attractor and reduce the risk of the sudden jump to undesired behavior. We review the most representative examples of hidden attractors, discuss their theoretical properties and experimental observations. We also describe numerical methods which allow identification of the hidden attractors.

  12. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  13. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  14. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  15. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  16. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  17. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  18. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  19. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  20. Variational Infinite Hidden Conditional Random Fields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bousmalis, Konstantinos; Zafeiriou, Stefanos; Morency, Louis-Philippe; Pantic, Maja; Ghahramani, Zoubin

    2015-01-01

    Hidden conditional random fields (HCRFs) are discriminative latent variable models which have been shown to successfully learn the hidden structure of a given classification problem. An Infinite hidden conditional random field is a hidden conditional random field with a countably infinite number of

  1. Managing Hidden Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Marcus M.; Pedersen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    This chapter investigates the concept of the ‘hidden costs’ of offshoring, i.e. unexpected offshoring costs exceeding the initially expected costs. Due to the highly undefined nature of these costs, we position our analysis towards the strategic responses of firms’ realisation of hidden costs....... In this regard, we argue that a major response to the hidden costs of offshoring is the identification and utilisation of strategic mechanisms in the organisational design to eventually achieving system integration in a globally dispersed and disaggregated organisation. This is heavily moderated by a learning......-by-doing process, where hidden costs motivate firms and their employees to search for new and better knowledge on how to successfully manage the organisation. We illustrate this thesis based on the case of the LEGO Group....

  2. The Hidden Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Manning, Stephan; Pedersen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    of offshoring. Specifically, we propose that hidden costs can be explained by the combination of increasing structural, operational and social complexity of offshoring activities. In addition, we suggest that firm orientation towards organizational design as part of an offshoring strategy and offshoring......This study seeks to explain hidden costs of offshoring, i.e. unexpected costs resulting from the relocation of business tasks and activities outside the home country. We develop a model that highlights the role of complexity, design orientation and experience in explaining hidden costs...... experience moderate the relationship between complexity and hidden costs negatively i.e. reduces the cost generating impact of complexity. We develop three hypotheses and test them on comprehensive data from the Offshoring Research Network (ORN). In general, we find support for our hypotheses. A key result...

  3. Child Abuse: The Hidden Bruises

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for Families - Vietnamese Spanish Facts for Families Guide Child Abuse - The Hidden Bruises No. 5; Updated November 2014 The statistics on physical child abuse are alarming. It is estimated hundreds of thousands ...

  4. Hidden Statistics of Schroedinger Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2011-01-01

    Work was carried out in determination of the mathematical origin of randomness in quantum mechanics and creating a hidden statistics of Schr dinger equation; i.e., to expose the transitional stochastic process as a "bridge" to the quantum world. The governing equations of hidden statistics would preserve such properties of quantum physics as superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods.

  5. Hidden Curriculum: An Analytical Definition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Andarvazh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The concept of hidden curriculum was first used by Philip Jackson in 1968, and Hafferty brought this concept to the medical education. Many of the subjects that medical students learn are attributed to this curriculum. So far several definitions have been presented for the hidden curriculum, which on the one hand made this concept richer, and on the other hand, led to confusion and ambiguity.This paper tries to provide a clear and comprehensive definition of it.Methods: In this study, concept analysis of McKenna method was used. Using keywords and searching in the databases, 561 English and 26 Persian references related to the concept was found, then by limitingthe research scope, 125 abstracts and by finding more relevant references, 55 articles were fully studied.Results: After analyzing the definitions by McKenna method, the hidden curriculum is defined as follows: The hidden curriculum is a hidden, powerful, intrinsic in organizational structure and culture and sometimes contradictory message, conveyed implicitly and tacitly in the learning environment by structural and human factors and its contents includes cultural habits and customs, norms, values, belief systems, attitudes, skills, desires and behavioral and social expectations can have a positive or negative effect, unplanned, neither planners nor teachers, nor learners are aware of it. The ultimate consequence of the hidden curriculum includes reproducing the existing class structure, socialization, and familiarizing learners for transmission and joining the professional world.Conclusion: Based on the concept analysis, we arrived at an analytical definition of the hidden curriculum that could be useful for further studies in this area.Keywords: CONCEPT ANALYSIS, HIDDEN CURRICULUM, MCKENNA’S METHOD

  6. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  7. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  8. Hidden ion population: Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, R.C.; Chappell, C.R.; Gallagher, D.L.; Green, J.L.; Gurnett, D.A.

    1985-01-01

    Satellite potentials in the outer plasmasphere range from near zero to +5 to +10 V. Under such conditions ion measurements may not include the low energy core of the plasma population. In eclipse, the photoelectron current drops to zero, and the spacecraft potential can drop to near zero volts. In regions where the ambient plasma density is below 100 cm -3 , previously unobserved portions of the ambient plasma distribution function can become visible in eclipse. A survey of the data obtained from the retarding ion mass spectrometer (RIMS) on Dynamics Explorer 1 shows that the RIMS detector generally measured the isotropic background in both sunlight and eclipse in the plasma-sphere. Absolute density measurements for the ''hidden'' ion population are obtained for the first time using the plasma wave instrument observations of the upper hybrid resonance. Agreement in total density is found in sunlight and eclipse measurements at densities above 80 cm -3 . In eclipse, agreement is found at densities as low as 20 cm -3 . The isotropic plasma composition is primarily H + , with approx.10% He + , and 0.1 to 1.0% O + . A low energy field-aligned ion population appears in eclipse measurements outside the plasmasphere, which is obscured in sunlight. These field-aligned ions can be interpreted as field-aligned flows with densities of a few particles per cubic centimeter, flowing at 5-20 km/s. The problem in measuring these field-aligned flows in sunlight is the masking of the high energy tail of the field-aligned distribution by the isotropic background. Effective measurement of the core of the magnetospheric plasma distribution awaits satellites with active means of controlling the satellite potential

  9. Neoliberal science, Chinese style: Making and managing the 'obesity epidemic'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhalgh, Susan

    2016-08-01

    Science and Technology Studies has seen a growing interest in the commercialization of science. In this article, I track the role of corporations in the construction of the obesity epidemic, deemed one of the major public health threats of the century. Focusing on China, a rising superpower in the midst of rampant, state-directed neoliberalization, I unravel the process, mechanisms, and broad effects of the corporate invention of an obesity epidemic. Largely hidden from view, Western firms were central actors at every stage in the creation, definition, and governmental management of obesity as a Chinese disease. Two industry-funded global health entities and the exploitation of personal ties enabled actors to nudge the development of obesity science and policy along lines beneficial to large firms, while obscuring the nudging. From Big Pharma to Big Food and Big Soda, transnational companies have been profiting from the 'epidemic of Chinese obesity', while doing little to effectively treat or prevent it. The China case suggests how obesity might have been constituted an 'epidemic threat' in other parts of the world and underscores the need for global frameworks to guide the study of neoliberal science and policymaking.

  10. Stargate of the Hidden Multiverse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Antonov

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Concept of Monoverse, which corresponds to the existing broad interpretation of the second postulate of the special theory of relativity, is not consistent with the modern astrophysical reality — existence of the dark matter and the dark energy, the total mass-energy of which is ten times greater than the mass-energy of the visible universe (which has been considered as the entire universe until very recent . This concept does not allow to explain their rather unusual properties — invisibility and lack of baryon content — which would seem to even destroy the very modern understanding of the term ‘matter’. However, all numerous alternative concepts of Multiverses, which have been proposed until today, are unable to explain these properties of the dark matter and dark energy. This article describes a new concept: the concept of the hidden Multiverse and hidden Supermultiverse, which mutual invisibility of parallel universes is explained by the physical reality of imaginary numbers. This concept completely explains the phenomenon of the dark matter and the dark energy. Moreover, it is shown that the dark matter and the dark energy are the experimental evidence for the existence of the hidden Multiverse. Described structure of the hidden Multiverse is fully consistent with the data obtained by the space stations WMAP and Planck. An extremely important property of the hidden Multiverse is an actual possibility of its permeation through stargate located on the Earth.

  11. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Hidden photons in connection to dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreas, Sarah; Ringwald, Andreas [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Goodsell, Mark D. [CPhT, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau (France)

    2013-06-15

    Light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so called hidden photons, which reside in a hidden sector have attracted much attention since they are a well motivated feature of many scenarios beyond the Standard Model and furthermore could mediate the interaction with hidden sector dark matter.We review limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from such experiments at KEK and Orsay. In addition, we study the possibility of having dark matter in the hidden sector. A simple toy model and different supersymmetric realisations are shown to provide viable dark matter candidates in the hidden sector that are in agreement with recent direct detection limits.

  13. Hidden photons in connection to dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreas, Sarah; Ringwald, Andreas; Goodsell, Mark D.

    2013-06-01

    Light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so called hidden photons, which reside in a hidden sector have attracted much attention since they are a well motivated feature of many scenarios beyond the Standard Model and furthermore could mediate the interaction with hidden sector dark matter.We review limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from such experiments at KEK and Orsay. In addition, we study the possibility of having dark matter in the hidden sector. A simple toy model and different supersymmetric realisations are shown to provide viable dark matter candidates in the hidden sector that are in agreement with recent direct detection limits.

  14. Hidden worlds in quantum physics

    CERN Document Server

    Gouesbet, Gérard

    2014-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed a resurgence in research and interest in the areas of quantum computation and entanglement. This new book addresses the hidden worlds or variables of quantum physics. Author Gérard Gouesbet studied and worked with a former student of Louis de Broglie, a pioneer of quantum physics. His presentation emphasizes the history and philosophical foundations of physics, areas that will interest lay readers as well as professionals and advanced undergraduate and graduate students of quantum physics. The introduction is succeeded by chapters offering background on relevant concepts in classical and quantum mechanics, a brief history of causal theories, and examinations of the double solution, pilot wave, and other hidden-variables theories. Additional topics include proofs of possibility and impossibility, contextuality, non-locality, classification of hidden-variables theories, and stochastic quantum mechanics. The final section discusses how to gain a genuine understanding of quantum mec...

  15. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  16. Detecting hidden particles with MATHUSLA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jared A.

    2018-03-01

    A hidden sector containing light long-lived particles provides a well-motivated place to find new physics. The recently proposed MATHUSLA experiment has the potential to be extremely sensitive to light particles originating from rare meson decays in the very long lifetime region. In this work, we illustrate this strength with the specific example of a light scalar mixed with the standard model-like Higgs boson, a model where MATHUSLA can further probe unexplored parameter space from exotic Higgs decays. Design augmentations should be considered in order to maximize the ability of MATHUSLA to discover very light hidden sector particles.

  17. Hidden Crises and Communication: An Interactional Analysis of Hidden Crises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Annette Klarenbeek

    2011-01-01

    In this paper I describe the ways in which the communication discipline can make a hidden crisis transparent. For this purpose I examine the concept of crisis entrepreneurship from a communication point of view. Using discourse analysis, I analyse the discursive practices of crisis entrepreneurs in

  18. Hidden Crises and Communication : An Interactional Analysis of Hidden Crises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Annette Klarenbeek

    2011-01-01

    In this paper I describe the ways in which the communication discipline can make a hidden crisis transparent. For this purpose I examine the concept of crisis entrepreneurship from a communication point of view. Using discourse analysis, I analyse the discursive practices of crisis entrepreneurs in

  19. Entry deterrence and hidden competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lavrutich, Maria; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter

    This paper studies strategic investment behavior of firms facing an uncertain demand in a duopoly setting. Firms choose both investment timing and the capacity level while facing additional uncertainty about market participants, which is introduced via the concept of hidden competition. We focus on

  20. Adaptive Partially Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren Otto; Rasmussen, Tage

    1996-01-01

    Partially Hidden Markov Models (PHMM) have recently been introduced. The transition and emission probabilities are conditioned on the past. In this report, the PHMM is extended with a multiple token version. The different versions of the PHMM are applied to bi-level image coding....

  1. The Hidden Dimensions of Databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacso, Peter

    1994-01-01

    Discusses methods of evaluating commercial online databases and provides examples that illustrate their hidden dimensions. Topics addressed include size, including the number of records or the number of titles; the number of years covered; and the frequency of updates. Comparisons of Readers' Guide Abstracts and Magazine Article Summaries are…

  2. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  3. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  4. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  5. Heroin Epidemic PSA (:60)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2015-07-07

    This 60 second public service announcement is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.  Created: 7/7/2015 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/7/2015.

  6. Hidden supersymmetry and large N

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfaro, J.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper we present a new method to deal with the leading order in the large-N expansion of a quantum field theory. The method uses explicitly the hidden supersymmetry that is present in the path-integral formulation of a stochastic process. In addition to this we derive a new relation that is valid in the leading order of the large-N expansion of the hermitian-matrix model for any spacetime dimension. (orig.)

  7. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  8. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  9. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  10. Academic mobbing: hidden health hazard at workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Sb

    2010-01-01

    Academic mobbing is a non-violent, sophisticated, 'ganging up' behaviour adopted by academicians to "wear and tear" a colleague down emotionally through unjustified accusation, humiliation, general harassment and emotional abuse. These are directed at the target under a veil of lies and justifications so that they are "hidden" to others and difficult to prove. Bullies use mobbing activities to hide their own weaknesses and incompetence. Targets selected are often intelligent, innovative high achievers, with good integrity and principles. Mobbing activities appear trivial and innocuous on its own but the frequency and pattern of their occurrence over long period of time indicates an aggressive manipulation to "eliminate" the target. Mobbing activities typically progress through five stereotypical phases that begins with an unsolved minor conflict between two workers and ultimately escalates into a senseless mobbing whereby the target is stigmatized and victimized to justify the behaviours of the bullies. The result is always physical, mental, social distress or illness and, most often, expulsion of target from the workplace. Organizations are subjected to great financial loss, loss of key workers and a tarnished public image and reputation. Public awareness, education, effective counselling, establishment of anti-bullying policies and legislations at all levels are necessary to curb academic mobbing. General practitioners (GPs) play an important role in supporting patients subjected to mental and physical health injury caused by workplace bullying and mobbing.

  11. Hidden particle production at the ILC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujii, Keisuke; Itoh, Hideo; Okada, Nobuchika; Hano, Hitoshi; Yoshioka, Tamaki

    2008-01-01

    In a class of new physics models, the new physics sector is completely or partly hidden, namely, a singlet under the standard model (SM) gauge group. Hidden fields included in such new physics models communicate with the standard model sector through higher-dimensional operators. If a cutoff lies in the TeV range, such hidden fields can be produced at future colliders. We consider a scalar field as an example of the hidden fields. Collider phenomenology on this hidden scalar is similar to that of the SM Higgs boson, but there are several features quite different from those of the Higgs boson. We investigate productions of the hidden scalar at the International Linear Collider (ILC) and study the feasibility of its measurements, in particular, how well the ILC distinguishes the scalar from the Higgs boson, through realistic Monte Carlo simulations.

  12. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    of meningococci, and neither possesses antitoxic power. The mixture of antiserum with lysol and with protargol reduces to a certain extent the antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effect of the chemicals; but this action is insufficient to set aside wholly the injurious effects which they produce. It follows, therefore, that whatever theoretical advantages might accrue from a bactericidal activity exerted by these chemicals independently of the type of meningococcus causing epidemic meningitis, is more than offset by the harmful effects which they cause. Hence specific antiserum seems to provide the logical therapeutic agent with which to combat epidemic meningitis, since it is itself innocuous and promotes those processes essential to recovery from the disease. The problem up to the present has been that of producing an antiserum which represents the several types of the meningococcus, and this problem is now in a fair way to being solved.

  13. Hidden measurements, hidden variables and the volume representation of transition probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Oliynyk, Todd A.

    2005-01-01

    We construct, for any finite dimension $n$, a new hidden measurement model for quantum mechanics based on representing quantum transition probabilities by the volume of regions in projective Hilbert space. For $n=2$ our model is equivalent to the Aerts sphere model and serves as a generalization of it for dimensions $n \\geq 3$. We also show how to construct a hidden variables scheme based on hidden measurements and we discuss how joint distributions arise in our hidden variables scheme and th...

  14. Dissipative hidden sector dark matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foot, R.; Vagnozzi, S.

    2015-01-01

    A simple way of explaining dark matter without modifying known Standard Model physics is to require the existence of a hidden (dark) sector, which interacts with the visible one predominantly via gravity. We consider a hidden sector containing two stable particles charged under an unbroken U (1 )' gauge symmetry, hence featuring dissipative interactions. The massless gauge field associated with this symmetry, the dark photon, can interact via kinetic mixing with the ordinary photon. In fact, such an interaction of strength ε ˜10-9 appears to be necessary in order to explain galactic structure. We calculate the effect of this new physics on big bang nucleosynthesis and its contribution to the relativistic energy density at hydrogen recombination. We then examine the process of dark recombination, during which neutral dark states are formed, which is important for large-scale structure formation. Galactic structure is considered next, focusing on spiral and irregular galaxies. For these galaxies we modeled the dark matter halo (at the current epoch) as a dissipative plasma of dark matter particles, where the energy lost due to dissipation is compensated by the energy produced from ordinary supernovae (the core-collapse energy is transferred to the hidden sector via kinetic mixing induced processes in the supernova core). We find that such a dynamical halo model can reproduce several observed features of disk galaxies, including the cored density profile and the Tully-Fisher relation. We also discuss how elliptical and dwarf spheroidal galaxies could fit into this picture. Finally, these analyses are combined to set bounds on the parameter space of our model, which can serve as a guideline for future experimental searches.

  15. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  16. Hidden inventory and safety considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, A.R.; James, R.H.; Morgan, F.

    1976-01-01

    Preliminary results are described of the evaluation of residual plutonium in a process line used for the production of experimental fast reactor fuel. Initial attention has been focussed on a selection of work boxes used for processing powders and solutions. Amounts of material measured as ''hidden inventory'' are generally less than 0.1 percent of throughput but in one box containing very complex equipment the amount was exceptionally about 0.5 percent. The total surface area of the box and the installed equipment appears to be the most significant factor in determining the amount of plutonium held-up as ''hidden inventory,'' representing an average of about 4 x 10 -4 g cm -2 . Present results are based on gamma spectrometer measurements but neutron techniques are being developed to overcome some of the inherent uncertainties in the gamma method. It is suggested that the routine use of sample plates of known surface area would be valuable in monitoring the deposition of plutonium in work boxes

  17. Hidden costs of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    England, R.W.

    1979-01-01

    Mr. England contends that these hidden costs add up to a figure much higher than those that appear in the electric utilities' profit and loss account - costs that are borne by Federal taxpayers, by nuclear industry workers, and by all those people who must share their environment with nuclear facilities. Costs he details are additional deaths and illnesses resulting from exposure to radiation, and the use of tax dollars to clean up the lethal garbage produced by those activities. He asserts that careless handling of uranium ore and mill tailings in past years has apparently resulted in serious public health problems in those mining communities. In another example, Mr. England states that the failure to isolate uranium tailings physically from their environment has probably contributed to an acute leukemia rate in Mesa County, Colorado. He mentions much of the technology development for power reactors being done by the Federal government, not by private reactor manufacturers - thus, again, hidden costs that do not show up in electric bills of customers. The back end of the nuclear fuel cycle as a place for Federally subsidized research and development is discussed briefly. 1 figure, 2 tables

  18. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  19. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  20. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  1. The Hidden Reason Behind Children's Misbehavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nystul, Michael S.

    1986-01-01

    Discusses hidden reason theory based on the assumptions that: (1) the nature of people is positive; (2) a child's most basic psychological need is involvement; and (3) a child has four possible choices in life (good somebody, good nobody, bad somebody, or severely mentally ill.) A three step approach for implementing hidden reason theory is…

  2. Hidden neural networks: application to speech recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Søren Kamaric

    1998-01-01

    We evaluate the hidden neural network HMM/NN hybrid on two speech recognition benchmark tasks; (1) task independent isolated word recognition on the Phonebook database, and (2) recognition of broad phoneme classes in continuous speech from the TIMIT database. It is shown how hidden neural networks...

  3. Insight: Exploring Hidden Roles in Collaborative Play

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tricia Shi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper looks into interaction modes between players in co-located, collaborative games. In particular, hidden traitor games, in which one or more players is secretly working against the group mission, has the effect of increasing paranoia and distrust between players, so this paper looks into the opposite of a hidden traitor – a hidden benefactor. Rather than sabotaging the group mission, the hidden benefactor would help the group achieve the end goal while still having a reason to stay hidden. The paper explores what games with such a role can look like and how the role changes player interactions. Finally, the paper addresses the divide between video game and board game interaction modes; hidden roles are not common within video games, but they are of growing prevalence in board games. This fact, combined with the exploration of hidden benefactors, reveals that hidden roles is a mechanic that video games should develop into in order to match board games’ complexity of player interaction modes.

  4. Hidden variables and locality in quantum theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiva, Vandana.

    1978-12-01

    The status of hidden variables in quantum theory has been debated since the 1920s. The author examines the no-hidden-variable theories of von Neumann, Kochen, Specker and Bell, and finds that they all share one basic assumption: averaging over the hidden variables should reproduce the quantum mechanical probabilities. Von Neumann also makes a linearity assumption, Kochen and Specker require the preservation of certain functional relations between magnitudes, and Bell proposes a locality condition. It has been assumed that the extrastatistical requirements are needed to serve as criteria of success for the introduction of hidden variables because the statistical condition is trivially satisfied, and that Bell's result is based on a locality condition that is physically motivated. The author shows that the requirement of weak locality, which is not physically motivated, is enough to give Bell's result. The proof of Bell's inequality works equally well for any pair of commuting magnitudes satisfying a condition called the degeneracy principle. None of the no-hidden-variable proofs apply to a class of hidden variable theories that are not phase-space reconstructions of quantum mechanics. The author discusses one of these theories, the Bohm-Bub theory, and finds that hidden variable theories that re all the quantum statistics, for single and sequential measurements, must introduce a randomization process for the hidden variables after each measurement. The philosophical significance of this theory lies in the role it can play in solving the conceptual puzzles posed by quantum theory

  5. Hidden supersymmetry and Fermion number fractionalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhoury, R.

    1985-01-01

    This paper discusses how a hidden supersymmetry of the underlying field theories can be used to interpret and to calculate fermion number fractionalization in different dimensions. This is made possible by relating it to a corresponding Witten index of the hidden supersymmetry. The closely related anomalies in odd dimensions are also discussed

  6. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  7. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  8. Helioscope bounds on hidden sector photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redondo, J.

    2008-01-01

    The flux of hypothetical ''hidden photons'' from the Sun is computed under the assumption that they interact with normal matter only through kinetic mixing with the ordinary standard model photon. Requiring that the exotic luminosity is smaller than the standard photon luminosity provides limits for the mixing parameter down to χ -14 , depending on the hidden photon mass. Furthermore, it is pointed point out that helioscopes looking for solar axions are also sensitive to hidden photons. The recent results of the CAST collaboration are used to further constrain the mixing parameter χ at low masses (m γ' <1 eV) where the luminosity bound is weaker. In this regime the solar hidden photon ux has a sizable contribution of longitudinally polarized hidden photons of low energy which are invisible for current helioscopes. (orig.)

  9. Hidden scale invariance of metals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hummel, Felix; Kresse, Georg; Dyre, Jeppe C.

    2015-01-01

    Density functional theory (DFT) calculations of 58 liquid elements at their triple point show that most metals exhibit near proportionality between the thermal fluctuations of the virial and the potential energy in the isochoric ensemble. This demonstrates a general “hidden” scale invariance...... of metals making the condensed part of the thermodynamic phase diagram effectively one dimensional with respect to structure and dynamics. DFT computed density scaling exponents, related to the Grüneisen parameter, are in good agreement with experimental values for the 16 elements where reliable data were...... available. Hidden scale invariance is demonstrated in detail for magnesium by showing invariance of structure and dynamics. Computed melting curves of period three metals follow curves with invariance (isomorphs). The experimental structure factor of magnesium is predicted by assuming scale invariant...

  10. Hidden Valley Search at ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Verducci, M

    2011-01-01

    A number of extensions of the Standard Model result in neutral and weakly-coupled particles that decay to multi hadrons or multi leptons with macroscopic decay lengths. These particles with decay paths that can be comparable with ATLAS detector dimensions represent, from an experimental point of view, a challenge both for the trigger and for the reconstruction capabilities of the ATLAS detector. We will present a set of signature driven triggers for the ATLAS detector that target such displaced decays and evaluate their performances for some benchmark models and describe analysis strategies and limits on the production of such long-lived particles. A first estimation of the Hidden Valley trigger rates has been evaluated with 6 pb-1 of data collected at ATLAS during the data taking of 2010.

  11. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  12. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  13. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  14. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  15. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  16. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  17. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  18. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  19. The obesity epidemic: is glycemic index the key to unlocking a hidden addiction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornley, Simon; McRobbie, Hayden; Eyles, Helen; Walker, Natalie; Simmons, Greg

    2008-11-01

    High body mass index (BMI) is an important cause of a range of diseases and is estimated to be the seventh leading cause of death globally. In this paper we discuss evidence that food consumption shows similarities to features of other addictive behaviours, such as automaticity and loss of control. Glycemic index is hypothesised to be the element of food that predicts its addictive potential. Although we do not have substantive evidence of a withdrawal syndrome from high glycemic food abstinence, anecdotal reports exist. Empirical scientific and clinical studies support an addictive component of eating behaviour, with similar neurotransmitters and neural pathways triggered by food consumption, as with other drugs of addiction. The public health implications of such a theory are discussed, with reference to tobacco control. Subtle changes in the preparation and manufacturing of commonly consumed food items, reducing glycemic index through regulatory channels, may break such a cycle of addiction and draw large public health benefits.

  20. Female genital mutilation : a hidden epidemic (statement from the European Academy of Paediatrics)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sauer, Pieter J. J.; Neubauer, David

    Female genital mutilation or female circumcision is frequently performed worldwide. It is estimated by the World Health Organisation that worldwide, 100-140 million girls and women currently have to live with the consequences of female genital mutilation. The article argues that the tradition is one

  1. Burden of recurrent Chlamydia trachomatis infections in young women: further uncovering the "hidden epidemic".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niccolai, Linda M; Hochberg, Abby L; Ethier, Kathleen A; Lewis, Jessica B; Ickovics, Jeannette R

    2007-03-01

    To determine the frequency and patterns of recurrent Chlamydia trachomatis infections, the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection in young women. Cohort study using different data collection methods, including face-to-face interviews, medical record reviews, urine-based screening for C trachomatis infections, and a review of state health department reports of C trachomatis diagnoses. Ten community-based health centers that provided reproductive health care from June 1998 to September 2001. Eligibility criteria included being nulliparous, between the ages of 14 and 19 years, and human immunodeficiency virus-negative, all at the time of recruitment. This convenience sample (N = 411) was recruited by word of mouth, clinician referrals, and advertisements in the clinics. Prospective follow-up data were available for 93.9% (386/411) of the sample. The exposure of interest was prior chlamydia infection. Main Outcome Measure Diagnosis of recurrent C trachomatis infection. During the follow-up period of 23 318 person-months (mean, 4.7 years per person), 216 participants (52.6%) were diagnosed as having C trachomatis infection, and 123 participants (29.9% of the total sample and 56.9% of those with initial infections) were diagnosed as having recurrent C trachomatis infections. Of 456 C trachomatis diagnoses made during the study period, 241 (52.9%) were recurrent infections. The rate of recurrent infections was 42.1 per 1000 person-months. The median time to recurrent infection was 5.2 months. Recurrent C trachomatis infections comprise a substantial health burden among young women, possibly higher than previously recognized in this vulnerable population.

  2. A survey of hidden-variables theories

    CERN Document Server

    Belinfante, F J

    1973-01-01

    A Survey of Hidden-Variables Theories is a three-part book on the hidden-variable theories, referred in this book as """"theories of the first kind"""". Part I reviews the motives in developing different types of hidden-variables theories. The quest for determinism led to theories of the first kind; the quest for theories that look like causal theories when applied to spatially separated systems that interacted in the past led to theories of the second kind. Parts II and III further describe the theories of the first kind and second kind, respectively. This book is written to make the literat

  3. A classification of hidden-variable properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandenburger, Adam; Yanofsky, Noson

    2008-01-01

    Hidden variables are extra components added to try to banish counterintuitive features of quantum mechanics. We start with a quantum-mechanical model and describe various properties that can be asked of a hidden-variable model. We present six such properties and a Venn diagram of how they are related. With two existence theorems and three no-go theorems (EPR, Bell and Kochen-Specker), we show which properties of empirically equivalent hidden-variable models are possible and which are not. Formally, our treatment relies only on classical probability models, and physical phenomena are used only to motivate which models to choose

  4. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  5. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  6. UV Photography Shows Hidden Sun Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... mcat1=de12", ]; for (var c = 0; c UV photography shows hidden sun damage A UV photograph gives ... developing skin cancer and prematurely aged skin. Normal photography UV photography 18 months of age: This boy's ...

  7. Coding with partially hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Søren; Rissanen, J.

    1995-01-01

    Partially hidden Markov models (PHMM) are introduced. They are a variation of the hidden Markov models (HMM) combining the power of explicit conditioning on past observations and the power of using hidden states. (P)HMM may be combined with arithmetic coding for lossless data compression. A general...... 2-part coding scheme for given model order but unknown parameters based on PHMM is presented. A forward-backward reestimation of parameters with a redefined backward variable is given for these models and used for estimating the unknown parameters. Proof of convergence of this reestimation is given....... The PHMM structure and the conditions of the convergence proof allows for application of the PHMM to image coding. Relations between the PHMM and hidden Markov models (HMM) are treated. Results of coding bi-level images with the PHMM coding scheme is given. The results indicate that the PHMM can adapt...

  8. Hidden costs, value lost: uninsurance in America

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on the Consequences of Uninsurance

    2003-01-01

    Hidden Cost, Value Lost , the fifth of a series of six books on the consequences of uninsurance in the United States, illustrates some of the economic and social losses to the country of maintaining...

  9. Perspective: Disclosing hidden sources of funding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resnik, David B

    2009-09-01

    In this article, the author discusses ethical and policy issues related to the disclosure of hidden sources of funding in research. The author argues that authors have an ethical obligation to disclose hidden sources of funding and that journals should adopt policies to enforce this obligation. Journal policies should require disclosure of hidden sources of funding that authors know about and that have a direct relation to their research. To stimulate this discussion, the author describes a recent case: investigators who conducted a lung cancer screening study had received funding from a private foundation that was supported by a tobacco company, but they did not disclose this relationship to the journal. Investigators and journal editors must be prepared to deal with these issues in a manner that promotes honesty, transparency, fairness, and accountability in research. The development of well-defined, reasonable policies pertaining to hidden sources of funding can be a step in this direction.

  10. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  11. Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels; Lassen, David Dreyer

    2017-01-01

    Do political institutions limit rent seeking by politicians? We study the transformation of petroleum rents, almost universally under direct government control, into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in offshore financial centers that specialize in secrecy and asset protection. Our...... rulers is diverted to secret accounts. We find very limited evidence that shocks to other types of income not directly controlled by governments affect hidden wealth....

  12. Hidden charm molecules in a finite volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albaladejo, M.; Hidalgo-Duque, C.; Nieves, J.; Oset, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper we address the interaction of charmed mesons in hidden charm channels in a finite box. We use the interaction from a recent model based on heavy quark spin symmetry that predicts molecules of hidden charm in the infinite volume. The energy levels in the box are generated within this model, and several methods for the analysis of these levels ("inverse problem") are investigated. (author)

  13. Workplace ageism: discovering hidden bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinen, Sanna; Johnston, Lucy

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: Research largely shows no performance differences between older and younger employees, or that older workers even outperform younger employees, yet negative attitudes towards older workers can underpin discrimination. Unfortunately, traditional "explicit" techniques for assessing attitudes (i.e., self-report measures) have serious drawbacks. Therefore, using an approach that is novel to organizational contexts, the authors supplemented explicit with implicit (indirect) measures of attitudes towards older workers, and examined the malleability of both. This research consists of two studies. The authors measured self-report (explicit) attitudes towards older and younger workers with a survey, and implicit attitudes with a reaction-time-based measure of implicit associations. In addition, to test whether attitudes were malleable, the authors measured attitudes before and after a mental imagery intervention, where the authors asked participants in the experimental group to imagine respected and valued older workers from their surroundings. Negative, stable implicit attitudes towards older workers emerged in two studies. Conversely, explicit attitudes showed no age bias and were more susceptible to change intervention, such that attitudes became more positive towards older workers following the experimental manipulation. This research demonstrates the unconscious nature of bias against older workers, and highlights the utility of implicit attitude measures in the context of the workplace. In the current era of aging workforce and skill shortages, implicit measures may be necessary to illuminate hidden workplace ageism.

  14. Hidden slow pulsars in binaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavani, Marco; Brookshaw, Leigh

    1993-01-01

    The recent discovery of the binary containing the slow pulsar PSR 1718-19 orbiting around a low-mass companion star adds new light on the characteristics of binary pulsars. The properties of the radio eclipses of PSR 1718-19 are the most striking observational characteristics of this system. The surface of the companion star produces a mass outflow which leaves only a small 'window' in orbital phase for the detection of PSR 1718-19 around 400 MHz. At this observing frequency, PSR 1718-19 is clearly observable only for about 1 hr out of the total 6.2 hr orbital period. The aim of this Letter is twofold: (1) to model the hydrodynamical behavior of the eclipsing material from the companion star of PSR 1718-19 and (2) to argue that a population of binary slow pulsars might have escaped detection in pulsar surveys carried out at 400 MHz. The possible existence of a population of partially or totally hidden slow pulsars in binaries will have a strong impact on current theories of binary evolution of neutron stars.

  15. The potential role of sports psychology in the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Vincent; Davis, Carolyn

    2013-06-01

    Sports psychologists play an important role in enhancing performance among athletes. In conjunction with team physicians, they can also shed light on psychological disorders common in athletes, such as mood and eating disorders, and overtraining syndrome. Sports psychologists can also lend their expertise to assist with injury prevention and recovery and compliance issues. Sports psychology has a role in helping to reverse the growing obesity epidemic among school-aged children. These professionals, working with coaches, can increase children's levels of physical activity. Cognitive-behavioral techniques could lead to enhanced enjoyment, increased participation, improved school performance, and a reduction in obesity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Probing hidden sector photons through the Higgs window

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, M.

    2008-07-01

    We investigate the possibility that a (light) hidden sector extra photon receives its mass via spontaneous symmetry breaking of a hidden sector Higgs boson, the so-called hidden-Higgs. The hidden-photon can mix with the ordinary photon via a gauge kinetic mixing term. The hidden-Higgs can couple to the Standard Model Higgs via a renormalizable quartic term - sometimes called the Higgs Portal. We discuss the implications of this light hidden-Higgs in the context of laser polarization and light-shining-through-the-wall experiments as well as cosmological, astrophysical, and non-Newtonian force measurements. For hidden-photons receiving their mass from a hidden-Higgs we find in the small mass regime significantly stronger bounds than the bounds on massive hidden sector photons alone. (orig.)

  17. Probing hidden sector photons through the Higgs window

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, Markus; Jaeckel, Joerg; Redondo, Javier; Ringwald, Andreas

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the possibility that a (light) hidden sector extra photon receives its mass via spontaneous symmetry breaking of a hidden sector Higgs boson, the so-called hidden-Higgs. The hidden-photon can mix with the ordinary photon via a gauge kinetic mixing term. The hidden-Higgs can couple to the standard model Higgs via a renormalizable quartic term - sometimes called the Higgs portal. We discuss the implications of this light hidden-Higgs in the context of laser polarization and light-shining-through-the-wall experiments as well as cosmological, astrophysical, and non-Newtonian force measurements. For hidden-photons receiving their mass from a hidden-Higgs, we find in the small mass regime significantly stronger bounds than the bounds on massive hidden sector photons alone.

  18. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  19. Fitting Hidden Markov Models to Psychological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Visser

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Markov models have been used extensively in psychology of learning. Applications of hidden Markov models are rare however. This is partially due to the fact that comprehensive statistics for model selection and model assessment are lacking in the psychological literature. We present model selection and model assessment statistics that are particularly useful in applying hidden Markov models in psychology. These statistics are presented and evaluated by simulation studies for a toy example. We compare AIC, BIC and related criteria and introduce a prediction error measure for assessing goodness-of-fit. In a simulation study, two methods of fitting equality constraints are compared. In two illustrative examples with experimental data we apply selection criteria, fit models with constraints and assess goodness-of-fit. First, data from a concept identification task is analyzed. Hidden Markov models provide a flexible approach to analyzing such data when compared to other modeling methods. Second, a novel application of hidden Markov models in implicit learning is presented. Hidden Markov models are used in this context to quantify knowledge that subjects express in an implicit learning task. This method of analyzing implicit learning data provides a comprehensive approach for addressing important theoretical issues in the field.

  20. Geometric phases and hidden local gauge symmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujikawa, Kazuo

    2005-01-01

    The analysis of geometric phases associated with level crossing is reduced to the familiar diagonalization of the Hamiltonian in the second quantized formulation. A hidden local gauge symmetry, which is associated with the arbitrariness of the phase choice of a complete orthonormal basis set, becomes explicit in this formulation (in particular, in the adiabatic approximation) and specifies physical observables. The choice of a basis set which specifies the coordinate in the functional space is arbitrary in the second quantization, and a subclass of coordinate transformations, which keeps the form of the action invariant, is recognized as the gauge symmetry. We discuss the implications of this hidden local gauge symmetry in detail by analyzing geometric phases for cyclic and noncyclic evolutions. It is shown that the hidden local symmetry provides a basic concept alternative to the notion of holonomy to analyze geometric phases and that the analysis based on the hidden local gauge symmetry leads to results consistent with the general prescription of Pancharatnam. We however note an important difference between the geometric phases for cyclic and noncyclic evolutions. We also explain a basic difference between our hidden local gauge symmetry and a gauge symmetry (or equivalence class) used by Aharonov and Anandan in their definition of generalized geometric phases

  1. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  2. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  3. Massive hidden photons as lukewarm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redondo, Javier; Postma, Marieke

    2008-11-01

    We study the possibility that a keV-MeV mass hidden photon (HP), i.e. a hidden sector U(1) gauge boson, accounts for the observed amount of dark matter. We focus on the case where the HP interacts with the standard model sector only through kinetic mixing with the photon. The relic abundance is computed including all relevant plasma effects into the photon's self-energy, which leads to a resonant yield almost independent of the HP mass. The HP can decay into three photons. Moreover, if light enough it can be copiously produced in stars. Including bounds from cosmic photon backgrounds and stellar evolution, we find that the hidden photon can only give a subdominant contribution to the dark matter. This negative conclusion may be avoided if another production mechanism besides kinetic mixing is operative. (orig.)

  4. Massive hidden photons as lukewarm dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Javier [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Postma, Marieke [Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica (NIKHEF), Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    We study the possibility that a keV-MeV mass hidden photon (HP), i.e. a hidden sector U(1) gauge boson, accounts for the observed amount of dark matter. We focus on the case where the HP interacts with the standard model sector only through kinetic mixing with the photon. The relic abundance is computed including all relevant plasma effects into the photon's self-energy, which leads to a resonant yield almost independent of the HP mass. The HP can decay into three photons. Moreover, if light enough it can be copiously produced in stars. Including bounds from cosmic photon backgrounds and stellar evolution, we find that the hidden photon can only give a subdominant contribution to the dark matter. This negative conclusion may be avoided if another production mechanism besides kinetic mixing is operative. (orig.)

  5. Religious Tolerance in the Hidden Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Nobel Kurniawan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Religious intolerance is spreading within the Indonesian institution of education. Previous studies have shown that the growth of intolerance is due to the state’s regulation and pedagogical apparatus. In contrast to the previous studies, I argue that the intolerance is related to hidden curriculum applied by the institution of education.  Normatively, the hidden curriculum contains the value of religious tolerance. However, factually, the author found that there are practices of intolerance, through the formal and informal spheres in the school’s structure, within the hidden curriculum. This article applies a qualitative approach with a mixed method research strategy to analyze data collected from students, teachers, and alumnis through field observation, in-depth interview, and survey.

  6. Hidden treasures - 50 km points of interests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lommi, Matias; Kortelainen, Jaana

    2015-04-01

    Tampere is third largest city in Finland and a regional centre. During 70's there occurred several communal mergers. Nowadays this local area has both strong and diversed identity - from wilderness and agricultural fields to high density city living. Outside the city center there are interesting geological points unknown for modern city settlers. There is even a local proverb, "Go abroad to Teisko!". That is the area the Hidden Treasures -student project is focused on. Our school Tammerkoski Upper Secondary School (or Gymnasium) has emphasis on visual arts. We are going to offer our art students scientific and artistic experiences and knowledge about the hidden treasures of Teisko area and involve the Teisko inhabitants into this project. Hidden treasures - Precambrian subduction zone and a volcanism belt with dense bed of gold (Au) and arsenic (As), operating goldmines and quarries of minerals and metamorphic slates. - North of subduction zone a homogenic precambrian magmastone area with quarries, products known as Kuru Grey. - Former ashores of post-glasial Lake Näsijärvi and it's sediments enabled the developing agriculture and sustained settlement. Nowadays these ashores have both scenery and biodiversity values. - Old cattle sheds and dairy buildings made of local granite stones related to cultural stonebuilding inheritance. - Local active community of Kapee, about 100 inhabitants. Students will discover information of these "hidden" phenomena, and rendering this information trough Enviromental Art Method. Final form of this project will be published in several artistic and informative geocaches. These caches are achieved by a GPS-based special Hidden Treasures Cycling Route and by a website guiding people to find these hidden points of interests.

  7. The origin of the hidden supersymmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakubsky, Vit; Nieto, Luis-Miguel; Plyushchay, Mikhail S.

    2010-01-01

    The hidden supersymmetry and related tri-supersymmetric structure of the free particle system, the Dirac delta potential problem and the Aharonov-Bohm effect (planar, bound state, and tubule models) are explained by a special nonlocal unitary transformation, which for the usual N=2 supercharges has a nature of Foldy-Wouthuysen transformation. We show that in general case, the bosonized supersymmetry of nonlocal, parity even systems emerges in the same construction, and explain the origin of the unusual N=2 supersymmetry of electron in three-dimensional parity even magnetic field. The observation extends to include the hidden superconformal symmetry.

  8. Signatures of a hidden cosmic microwave background.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeckel, Joerg; Redondo, Javier; Ringwald, Andreas

    2008-09-26

    If there is a light Abelian gauge boson gamma' in the hidden sector its kinetic mixing with the photon can produce a hidden cosmic microwave background (HCMB). For meV masses, resonant oscillations gammagamma' happen after big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) but before CMB decoupling, increasing the effective number of neutrinos Nnu(eff) and the baryon to photon ratio, and distorting the CMB blackbody spectrum. The agreement between BBN and CMB data provides new constraints. However, including Lyman-alpha data, Nnu(eff) > 3 is preferred. It is tempting to attribute this effect to the HCMB. The interesting parameter range will be tested in upcoming laboratory experiments.

  9. Hidden simplicity of gauge theory amplitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drummond, J M, E-mail: drummond@lapp.in2p3.f [LAPTH, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, B.P. 110, F-74941 Annecy-le-Vieux, Cedex (France)

    2010-11-07

    These notes were given as lectures at the CERN Winter School on Supergravity, Strings and Gauge Theory 2010. We describe the structure of scattering amplitudes in gauge theories, focussing on the maximally supersymmetric theory to highlight the hidden symmetries which appear. Using the Britto, Cachzo, Feng and Witten (BCFW) recursion relations we solve the tree-level S-matrix in N=4 super Yang-Mills theory and describe how it produces a sum of invariants of a large symmetry algebra. We review amplitudes in the planar theory beyond tree level, describing the connection between amplitudes and Wilson loops, and discuss the implications of the hidden symmetries.

  10. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  11. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  13. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  14. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  15. Searching for hidden sectors in multiparticle production at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Sanchis-Lozano, Miguel-Angel; Moreno-Picot, Salvador

    2016-01-01

    We study the impact of a hidden sector beyond the Standard Model, e.g. a Hidden Valley model, on factorial moments and cumulants of multiplicity distributions in multiparticle production with a special emphasis on the prospects for LHC results.

  16. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  17. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  18. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  19. Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

    2016-04-01

    The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

  20. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  1. Compressing the hidden variable space of a qubit

    OpenAIRE

    Montina, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    In previously exhibited hidden variable models of quantum state preparation and measurement, the number of continuous hidden variables describing the actual state of a single realization is never smaller than the quantum state manifold dimension. We introduce a simple model for a qubit whose hidden variable space is one-dimensional, i.e., smaller than the two-dimensional Bloch sphere. The hidden variable probability distributions associated with the quantum states satisfy reasonable criteria ...

  2. Hidden Markov Models for Human Genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, Pierre; Brunak, Søren; Chauvin, Yves

    1997-01-01

    We analyse the sequential structure of human genomic DNA by hidden Markov models. We apply models of widely different design: conventional left-right constructs and models with a built-in periodic architecture. The models are trained on segments of DNA sequences extracted such that they cover com...

  3. The Hidden Cost of Buying a Computer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michael

    1983-01-01

    In order to process data in a computer, application software must be either developed or purchased. Costs for modifications of the software package and maintenance are often hidden. The decision to buy or develop software packages should be based upon factors of time and maintenance. (MLF)

  4. Hidden symmetries in five-dimensional supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poessel, M.

    2003-05-01

    This thesis is concerned with the study of hidden symmetries in supergravity, which play an important role in the present picture of supergravity and string theory. Concretely, the appearance of a hidden G 2(+2) /SO(4) symmetry is studied in the dimensional reduction of d=5, N=2 supergravity to three dimensions - a parallel model to the more famous E 8(+8) /SO(16) case in eleven-dimensional supergravity. Extending previous partial results for the bosonic part, I give a derivation that includes fermionic terms. This sheds new light on the appearance of the local hidden symmetry SO(4) in the reduction, and shows up an unusual feature which follows from an analysis of the R-symmetry associated with N=4 supergravity and of the supersymmetry variations, and which has no parallel in the eleven-dimensional case: The emergence of an additional SO(3) as part of the enhanced local symmetry, invisible in the dimensional reduction of the gravitino, and corresponding to the fact that, of the SO(4) used in the coset model, only the diagonal SO(3) is visible immediately upon dimensional reduction. The uncovering of the hidden symmetries proceeds via the construction of the proper coset gravity in three dimensions, and matching it with the Lagrangian obtained from the reduction. (orig.)

  5. Discovering hidden sectors with monophoton Z' searches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershtein, Yuri; Petriello, Frank; Quackenbush, Seth; Zurek, Kathryn M.

    2008-01-01

    In many theories of physics beyond the standard model, from extra dimensions to Hidden Valleys and models of dark matter, Z ' bosons mediate between standard model particles and hidden sector states. We study the feasibility of observing such hidden states through an invisibly decaying Z ' at the LHC. We focus on the process pp→γZ ' →γXX † , where X is any neutral, (quasi-) stable particle, whether a standard model neutrino or a new state. This complements a previous study using pp→ZZ ' →l + l - XX † . Only the Z ' mass and two effective charges are needed to describe this process. If the Z ' decays invisibly only to standard model neutrinos, then these charges are predicted by observation of the Z ' through the Drell-Yan process, allowing discrimination between Z ' decays to standard model ν's and invisible decays to new states. We carefully discuss all backgrounds and systematic errors that affect this search. We find that hidden sector decays of a 1 TeV Z ' can be observed at 5σ significance with 50 fb -1 at the LHC. Observation of a 1.5 TeV state requires super-LHC statistics of 1 ab -1 . Control of the systematic errors, in particular, the parton distribution function uncertainty of the dominant Zγ background, is crucial to maximize the LHC search reach.

  6. Hidden Markov models for labeled sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1994-01-01

    A hidden Markov model for labeled observations, called a class HMM, is introduced and a maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the model. Instead of training it to model the statistics of the training sequences it is trained to optimize recognition. It resembles MMI...

  7. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  8. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  9. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  10. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  11. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  12. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  13. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  14. Extended abstract of a hidden agenda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goguen, J.; Malcolm, G. [Oxford Univ. (United Kingdom)

    1996-12-31

    The initial goal of our hidden research programme was both straightforward and ambitious: give a semantics for software engineering, and in particular for the object paradigm, supporting correctness proofs that are as simple and mechanical as possible. This emphasizes proofs rather than models, and thus suggests an equational approach, rather than one based on higher order logic, denotational semantics, or any kind of model, because equational proofs achieve maximal simplicity and mechanization, and yet are fully expressive. We introduce powerful coinduction techniques for proving behavioral properties of complex systems. We make the no doubt outrageous claim that our hidden approach gives simpler proofs than other formalisms; this is because we exploit algebraic structure that most other approaches discard.

  15. Laser experiments explore the hidden sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, M.

    2007-11-01

    Recently, the laser experiments BMV and GammeV, searching for light shining through walls, have published data and calculated new limits on the allowed masses and couplings for axion-like particles. In this note we point out that these experiments can serve to constrain a much wider variety of hidden-sector particles such as, e.g., minicharged particles and hidden-sector photons. The new experiments improve the existing bounds from the older BFRT experiment by a factor of two. Moreover, we use the new PVLAS constraints on a possible rotation and ellipticity of light after it has passed through a strong magnetic field to constrain pure minicharged particle models. For masses -7 times the electron electric charge. This is the best laboratory bound and comparable to bounds inferred from the energy spectrum of the cosmic microwave background. (orig.)

  16. Quantum mechanics and hidden superconformal symmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonezzi, R.; Corradini, O.; Latini, E.; Waldron, A.

    2017-12-01

    Solvability of the ubiquitous quantum harmonic oscillator relies on a spectrum generating osp (1 |2 ) superconformal symmetry. We study the problem of constructing all quantum mechanical models with a hidden osp (1 |2 ) symmetry on a given space of states. This problem stems from interacting higher spin models coupled to gravity. In one dimension, we show that the solution to this problem is the Vasiliev-Plyushchay family of quantum mechanical models with hidden superconformal symmetry obtained by viewing the harmonic oscillator as a one dimensional Dirac system, so that Grassmann parity equals wave function parity. These models—both oscillator and particlelike—realize all possible unitary irreducible representations of osp (1 |2 ).

  17. Hidden Costs and the Role of Modularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Marcus M.

    2013-01-01

    that the inability to effectively estimate the costs of implementing an activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred as operations are likely to be disrupted by opportunity costs and managerial responses. However, this relationship......This paper addresses estimation errors in strategic decision-making processes due to hidden costs. While previous research has investigated the antecedents of hidden costs, this paper investigates performance consequences. Using unique data on 221 offshoring implementations, it is argued...... is mitigated by the degree of modularity in the activity as it reduces the need for costly coordination in offshoring. This paper contributes to research on offshoring and strategic decision-making by emphasizing the importance of organizational design and of estimating the costs of internal organizational...

  18. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  19. The Hidden Gifts of Quiet Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trierweiler, Hannah

    2006-01-01

    The author relates that she was an introvert child. It has always taken her time and energy to find her place in a group. As a grown-up, she still needed quiet time to regroup during a busy day. In this article, the author presents an interview with Marti Olsen Laney, author of "The Hidden Gifts of the Introverted Child." During the interview,…

  20. Hidden neuronal correlations in cultured networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segev, Ronen; Baruchi, Itay; Hulata, Eyal; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2004-01-01

    Utilization of a clustering algorithm on neuronal spatiotemporal correlation matrices recorded during a spontaneous activity of in vitro networks revealed the existence of hidden correlations: the sequence of synchronized bursting events (SBEs) is composed of statistically distinguishable subgroups each with its own distinct pattern of interneuron spatiotemporal correlations. These findings hint that each of the SBE subgroups can serve as a template for coding, storage, and retrieval of a specific information

  1. A masking index for quantifying hidden glitches

    OpenAIRE

    Berti-Equille, Laure; Loh, J. M.; Dasu, T.

    2015-01-01

    Data glitches are errors in a dataset. They are complex entities that often span multiple attributes and records. When they co-occur in data, the presence of one type of glitch can hinder the detection of another type of glitch. This phenomenon is called masking. In this paper, we define two important types of masking and propose a novel, statistically rigorous indicator called masking index for quantifying the hidden glitches. We outline four cases of masking: outliers masked by missing valu...

  2. Cold dark matter from the hidden sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arias, Paola; Pontificia Univ. Catolica de Chile, Santiago

    2012-02-01

    Weakly interacting slim particles (WISPs) such as hidden photons (HP) and axion-like particles (ALPs) have been proposed as cold dark matter candidates. They might be produced non-thermally via the misalignment mechanism, similarly to cold axions. In this talk we review the main processes of thermalisation of HP and we compute the parameter space that may survive as cold dark matter population until today. Our findings are quite encouraging for experimental searches in the laboratory in the near future.

  3. Completing Quantum Mechanics with Quantized Hidden Variables

    OpenAIRE

    van Enk, S. J.

    2015-01-01

    I explore the possibility that a quantum system S may be described completely by the combination of its standard quantum state $|\\psi\\rangle$ and a (hidden) quantum state $|\\phi\\rangle$ (that lives in the same Hilbert space), such that the outcome of any standard projective measurement on the system S is determined once the two quantum states are specified. I construct an algorithm that retrieves the standard quantum-mechanical probabilities, which depend only on $|\\psi\\rangle$, by assuming t...

  4. Cold dark matter from the hidden sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arias, Paola [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Pontificia Univ. Catolica de Chile, Santiago (Chile). Facultad de Fisica

    2012-02-15

    Weakly interacting slim particles (WISPs) such as hidden photons (HP) and axion-like particles (ALPs) have been proposed as cold dark matter candidates. They might be produced non-thermally via the misalignment mechanism, similarly to cold axions. In this talk we review the main processes of thermalisation of HP and we compute the parameter space that may survive as cold dark matter population until today. Our findings are quite encouraging for experimental searches in the laboratory in the near future.

  5. Hidden histories: challenges for pedagogy and participation

    OpenAIRE

    Morrice, Linda

    2013-01-01

    Higher Education has become and an increasingly diverse and globalised system in which the binaries between ‘traditional’ and ‘non-traditional’ students, exclusion and inclusion have less resonance and analytical purchase. Drawing on research with refugees Linda will suggest that higher education can be marked simultaneously by belonging and recognition, deficit and exclusion. Complex differences and inequalities remain hidden and unspoken, raising new questions and challenges for pedagogy an...

  6. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  7. Hidden sector behind the CKM matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okawa, Shohei; Omura, Yuji

    2017-08-01

    The small quark mixing, described by the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix in the standard model, may be a clue to reveal new physics around the TeV scale. We consider a simple scenario that extra particles in a hidden sector radiatively mediate the flavor violation to the quark sector around the TeV scale and effectively realize the observed CKM matrix. The lightest particle in the hidden sector, whose contribution to the CKM matrix is expected to be dominant, is a good dark matter (DM) candidate. There are many possible setups to describe this scenario, so that we investigate some universal predictions of this kind of model, focusing on the contribution of DM to the quark mixing and flavor physics. In this scenario, there is an explicit relation between the CKM matrix and flavor violating couplings, such as four-quark couplings, because both are radiatively induced by the particles in the hidden sector. Then, we can explicitly find the DM mass region and the size of Yukawa couplings between the DM and quarks, based on the study of flavor physics and DM physics. In conclusion, we show that DM mass in our scenario is around the TeV scale, and the Yukawa couplings are between O (0.01 ) and O (1 ). The spin-independent DM scattering cross section is estimated as O (10-9) [pb]. An extra colored particle is also predicted at the O (10 ) TeV scale.

  8. Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okano, Justin T; Robbins, Danielle; Palk, Laurence; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels; Blower, Sally

    2016-07-01

    Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996 and 2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has identified as a priority for elimination. We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the hidden epidemic (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study: the Danish HIV Cohort Study. Incidence, and the hidden epidemic, decreased substantially after treatment was introduced in 1996. By 2013, incidence was close to the elimination threshold: 1·4 (median, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 0·4-2·1) new HIV infections per 1000 MSM and there were only 617 (264-858) undiagnosed MSM. Decreasing incidence and increasing treatment coverage were highly correlated; a treatment threshold effect was apparent. Our study is the first to show that TasP can substantially reduce a country's HIV epidemic, and bring it close to elimination. However, we have shown the effectiveness of TasP under optimal conditions: very high treatment coverage, and exceptionally high (98%) viral suppression rate. Unless these extremely challenging conditions can be met in sub-Saharan Africa, the WHO's global elimination strategy is unlikely to succeed. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Virtual Reality for Traumatic Brain Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa R. Zanier

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In this perspective, we discuss the potential of virtual reality (VR in the assessment and rehabilitation of traumatic brain injury, a silent epidemic of extremely high burden and no pharmacological therapy available. VR, endorsed by the mobile and gaming industries, is now available in more usable and cheaper tools allowing its therapeutic engagement both at the bedside and during the daily life at chronic stages after injury with terrific potential for a longitudinal disease modifying effect.

  10. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  11. Microwave background constraints on mixing of photons with hidden photons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirizzi, Alessandro; Redondo, Javier; Sigl, Guenter

    2008-12-01

    Various extensions of the Standard Model predict the existence of hidden photons kinetically mixing with the ordinary photon. This mixing leads to oscillations between photons and hidden photons, analogous to the observed oscillations between different neutrino flavors. In this context, we derive new bounds on the photon-hidden photon mixing parameters using the high precision cosmic microwave background spectral data collected by the Far Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer instrument on board of the Cosmic Background Explorer. Requiring the distortions of the CMB induced by the photon-hidden photon mixing to be smaller than experimental upper limits, this leads to a bound on the mixing angle χ 0 -7 - 10 -5 for hidden photon masses between 10 -14 eV and 10 -7 eV. This low-mass and low-mixing region of the hidden photon parameter space was previously unconstrained. (orig.)

  12. Microwave background constraints on mixing of photons with hidden photons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirizzi, Alessandro [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany); Redondo, Javier [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Sigl, Guenter [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2008-12-15

    Various extensions of the Standard Model predict the existence of hidden photons kinetically mixing with the ordinary photon. This mixing leads to oscillations between photons and hidden photons, analogous to the observed oscillations between different neutrino flavors. In this context, we derive new bounds on the photon-hidden photon mixing parameters using the high precision cosmic microwave background spectral data collected by the Far Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer instrument on board of the Cosmic Background Explorer. Requiring the distortions of the CMB induced by the photon-hidden photon mixing to be smaller than experimental upper limits, this leads to a bound on the mixing angle {chi}{sub 0} hidden photon masses between 10{sup -14} eV and 10{sup -7} eV. This low-mass and low-mixing region of the hidden photon parameter space was previously unconstrained. (orig.)

  13. VISIBLE COSTS AND HIDDEN COSTS IN THE BAKING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Criveanu Maria

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Hidden costs are present in the activity of any company, hardly identified in the traditional administrative accounting. The high levels of the hidden costs and their unknown presence have serious consequences on the decisions made by the managers. This paper aims at presenting some aspects related to the hidden costs that occur in the activity of the companies in the baking industry and the possibilities to reduce their level.

  14. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  15. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  16. Compressing the hidden variable space of a qubit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montina, Alberto

    2011-01-01

    In previously exhibited hidden variable models of quantum state preparation and measurement, the number of continuous hidden variables describing the actual state of single realizations is never smaller than the quantum state manifold dimension. We introduce a simple model for a qubit whose hidden variable space is one-dimensional, i.e., smaller than the two-dimensional Bloch sphere. The hidden variable probability distributions associated with quantum states satisfy reasonable criteria of regularity. Possible generalizations of this shrinking to an N-dimensional Hilbert space are discussed.

  17. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochkarev, V. V.; Lerner, E. Yu

    2014-03-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different.

  18. Zipf exponent of trajectory distribution in the hidden Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochkarev, V V; Lerner, E Yu

    2014-01-01

    This paper is the first step of generalization of the previously obtained full classification of the asymptotic behavior of the probability for Markov chain trajectories for the case of hidden Markov models. The main goal is to study the power (Zipf) and nonpower asymptotics of the frequency list of trajectories of hidden Markov frequencys and to obtain explicit formulae for the exponent of the power asymptotics. We consider several simple classes of hidden Markov models. We prove that the asymptotics for a hidden Markov model and for the corresponding Markov chain can be essentially different

  19. Hidden acoustic information revealed by intentional nonlinearity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, David R.

    2017-11-01

    Acoustic waves are omnipresent in modern life and are well described by the linearized equations of fluid dynamics. Once generated, acoustic waves carry and collect information about their source and the environment through which they propagate, respectively, and this information may be retrieved by analyzing recordings of these waves. Because of this, acoustics is the primary means for observation, surveillance, reconnaissance, and remote sensing in otherwise opaque environments, such as the Earth's oceans and crust, and the interior of the human body. For such information-retrieval tasks, acoustic fields are nearly always interrogated within their recorded frequency range or bandwidth. However, this frequency-range restriction is not general; acoustic fields may also carry (hidden) information at frequencies outside their bandwidth. Although such a claim may seem counter intuitive, hidden acoustic-field information can be revealed by re-introducing a marquee trait of fluid dynamics: nonlinearity. In particular, an intentional quadratic nonlinearity - a form of intra-signal heterodyning - can be used to obtain acoustic field information at frequencies outside a recorded acoustic field's bandwidth. This quadratic nonlinearity enables a variety of acoustic remote sensing applications that were long thought to be impossible. In particular, it allows the detrimental effects of sparse recordings and random scattering to be suppressed when the original acoustic field has sufficient bandwidth. In this presentation, the topic is developed heuristically, with a just brief exposition of the relevant mathematics. Hidden acoustic field information is then revealed from simulated and measured acoustic fields in simple and complicated acoustic environments involving frequencies from a few Hertz to more than 100 kHz, and propagation distances from tens of centimeters to hundreds of kilometers. Sponsored by ONR, NAVSEA, and NSF.

  20. Recovering a hidden polarization by ghost polarimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janassek, Patrick; Blumenstein, Sébastien; Elsäßer, Wolfgang

    2018-02-15

    By exploiting polarization correlations of light from a broadband fiber-based amplified spontaneous emission source we succeed in reconstructing a hidden polarization in a ghost polarimetry experiment in close analogy to ghost imaging and ghost spectroscopy. Thereby, an original linear polarization state in the object arm of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer configuration which has been camouflaged by a subsequent depolarizer is recovered by correlating it with light from a reference beam. The variation of a linear polarizer placed inside the reference beam results in a Malus law type second-order intensity correlation with high contrast, thus measuring a ghost polarigram.

  1. Pruning Boltzmann networks and hidden Markov models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten With; Stork, D.

    1996-01-01

    We present sensitivity-based pruning algorithms for general Boltzmann networks. Central to our methods is the efficient calculation of a second-order approximation to the true weight saliencies in a cross-entropy error. Building upon previous work which shows a formal correspondence between linear...... Boltzmann chains and hidden Markov models (HMMs), we argue that our method can be applied to HMMs as well. We illustrate pruning on Boltzmann zippers, which are equivalent to two HMMs with cross-connection links. We verify that our second-order approximation preserves the rank ordering of weight saliencies...

  2. Hidden Scale Invariance in Condensed Matter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyre, J. C.

    2014-01-01

    . This means that the phase diagram becomes effectively one-dimensional with regard to several physical properties. Liquids and solids with isomorphs include most or all van der Waals bonded systems and metals, as well as weakly ionic or dipolar systems. On the other hand, systems with directional bonding...... (hydrogen bonds or covalent bonds) or strong Coulomb forces generally do not exhibit hidden scale invariance. The article reviews the theory behind this picture of condensed matter and the evidence for it coming from computer simulations and experiments...

  3. Uncovering the Hidden Costs of Offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Marcus M.; Manning, Stephan; Pedersen, Torben

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates estimation errors due to hidden costs—the costs of implementation that are neglected in strategic decision-making processes—in the context of services offshoring. Based on data from the Offshoring Research Network, we find that decision makers are more likely to make cost......-estimation errors given increasing configuration and task complexity in captive offshoring and offshore outsourcing, respectively. Moreover, we show that experience and a strong orientation toward organizational design in the offshoring strategy reduce the cost-estimation errors that follow from complexity. Our...

  4. The hidden face of the petroleum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurent, E.

    2006-02-01

    For the first time, a book reveals what that was hidden to the public opinions: why the petroleum crisis of 1973 what only a manipulation, an arrangement between the OPEC and the petroleum companies, why the data concerning the petroleum reserves are wrong and increased by the producers countries, how Washington used the Saudi petroleum weapon to create the Soviet Union fall, and why from march 2001 maps of the Iraq (where were drawn the future petroleum explorations) were working documents for the vice President Cheney and petroleum managers for the ''secret society''. (A.L.B.)

  5. Evolving the structure of hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    won, K. J.; Prugel-Bennett, A.; Krogh, A.

    2006-01-01

    A genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed for finding the structure of hidden Markov Models (HMMs) used for biological sequence analysis. The GA is designed to preserve biologically meaningful building blocks. The search through the space of HMM structures is combined with optimization of the emission...... and transition probabilities using the classic Baum-Welch algorithm. The system is tested on the problem of finding the promoter and coding region of C. jejuni. The resulting HMM has a superior discrimination ability to a handcrafted model that has been published in the literature....

  6. The hidden costs of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keough, C.

    1981-01-01

    The two basic hidden costs of nuclear power are public money and public health. Nuclear power appears to be economical because many of the costs of producins electricity in these plants are paid by the federal government. So, like it or not, the citizens are footing the bill with their taxes. Design and development of plants have been paid for with public money, and disposal and cleanup costs will also be paid in this manner. The economic and health costs associated with nuclear accidents are staggering

  7. Genetic Algorithms Principles Towards Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil M. Hewahi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a general approach based on Genetic Algorithms (GAs to evolve Hidden Markov Models (HMM. The problem appears when experts assign probability values for HMM, they use only some limited inputs. The assigned probability values might not be accurate to serve in other cases related to the same domain. We introduce an approach based on GAs to find
    out the suitable probability values for the HMM to be mostly correct in more cases than what have been used to assign the probability values.

  8. Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...

  9. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  10. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  11. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  12. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  13. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  14. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  15. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  16. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  17. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  18. Global Update and Trends of Hidden Hunger, 1995-2011: The Hidden Hunger Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Gretchen A.; Ezzati, Majid; Black, Robert E.; Kraemer, Klaus

    2015-01-01

    Background Deficiencies in essential vitamins and minerals–also termed hidden hunger–are pervasive and hold negative consequences for the cognitive and physical development of children. Methods This analysis evaluates the change in hidden hunger over time in the form of one composite indicator–the Hidden Hunger Index (HHI)–using an unweighted average of prevalence estimates from the Nutrition Impact Model Study for anemia due to iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency, and stunting (used as a proxy indicator for zinc deficiency). Net changes from 1995–2011 and population weighted regional means for various time periods are measured. Findings Globally, hidden hunger improved (-6.7 net change in HHI) from 1995–2011. Africa was the only region to see a deterioration in hidden hunger (+1.9) over the studied time period; East Asia and the Pacific performed exceptionally well (-13.0), while other regions improved only slightly. Improvements in HHI were mostly due to reductions in zinc and vitamin A deficiencies, while anemia due to iron deficiency persisted and even increased. Interpretation This analysis is critical for informing and tracking the impact of policy and programmatic efforts to reduce micronutrient deficiencies, to advance the global nutrition agenda, and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, there remains an unmet need to invest in gathering frequent, nationally representative, high-quality micronutrient data as we renew our efforts to scale up nutrition, and as we enter the post-2015 development agenda. Funding Preparation of this manuscript was funded by Sight and Life. There was no funding involved in the study design, data collection, analysis, or decision to publish. PMID:26673631

  19. Global Update and Trends of Hidden Hunger, 1995-2011: The Hidden Hunger Index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie C Ruel-Bergeron

    Full Text Available Deficiencies in essential vitamins and minerals-also termed hidden hunger-are pervasive and hold negative consequences for the cognitive and physical development of children.This analysis evaluates the change in hidden hunger over time in the form of one composite indicator-the Hidden Hunger Index (HHI-using an unweighted average of prevalence estimates from the Nutrition Impact Model Study for anemia due to iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency, and stunting (used as a proxy indicator for zinc deficiency. Net changes from 1995-2011 and population weighted regional means for various time periods are measured.Globally, hidden hunger improved (-6.7 net change in HHI from 1995-2011. Africa was the only region to see a deterioration in hidden hunger (+1.9 over the studied time period; East Asia and the Pacific performed exceptionally well (-13.0, while other regions improved only slightly. Improvements in HHI were mostly due to reductions in zinc and vitamin A deficiencies, while anemia due to iron deficiency persisted and even increased.This analysis is critical for informing and tracking the impact of policy and programmatic efforts to reduce micronutrient deficiencies, to advance the global nutrition agenda, and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. However, there remains an unmet need to invest in gathering frequent, nationally representative, high-quality micronutrient data as we renew our efforts to scale up nutrition, and as we enter the post-2015 development agenda.Preparation of this manuscript was funded by Sight and Life. There was no funding involved in the study design, data collection, analysis, or decision to publish.

  20. Hidden in plain sight: the formal, informal, and hidden curricula of a psychiatry clerkship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wear, Delese; Skillicorn, Jodie

    2009-04-01

    To examine perceptions of the formal, informal, and hidden curricula in psychiatry as they are observed and experienced by (1) attending physicians who have teaching responsibilities for residents and medical students, (2) residents who are taught by those same physicians and who have teaching responsibilities for medical students, and (3) medical students who are taught by attendings and residents during their psychiatry rotation. From June to November 2007, the authors conducted focus groups with attendings, residents, and students in one midwestern academic setting. The sessions were audiotaped, transcribed, and analyzed for themes surrounding the formal, informal, and hidden curricula. All three groups offered a similar belief that the knowledge, skills, and values of the formal curriculum focused on building relationships. Similarly, all three suggested that elements of the informal and hidden curricula were expressed primarily as the values arising from attendings' role modeling, as the nature and amount of time attendings spend with patients, and as attendings' advice arising from experience and intuition versus "textbook learning." Whereas students and residents offered negative values arising from the informal and hidden curricula, attendings did not, offering instead the more positive values they intended to encourage through the informal and hidden curricula. The process described here has great potential in local settings across all disciplines. Asking teachers and learners in any setting to think about how they experience the educational environment and what sense they make of all curricular efforts can provide a reality check for educators and a values check for learners as they critically reflect on the meanings of what they are learning.

  1. Atlas of solar hidden photon emission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Javier [Departamento de Física Teórica, Universidad de Zaragoza,Pedro Cerbuna 12, E-50009, Zaragoza (Spain); Max-Planck-Institut für Physik, Werner-Heisenberg-Institut,Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München (Germany)

    2015-07-20

    Hidden photons, gauge bosons of a U(1) symmetry of a hidden sector, can constitute the dark matter of the universe and a smoking gun for large volume compactifications of string theory. In the sub-eV mass range, a possible discovery experiment consists on searching the copious flux of these particles emitted from the Sun in a helioscope setup à la Sikivie. In this paper, we compute in great detail the flux of HPs from the Sun, a necessary ingredient for interpreting such experiments. We provide a detailed exposition of transverse photon-HP oscillations in inhomogenous media, with special focus on resonance oscillations, which play a leading role in many cases. The region of the Sun emitting HPs resonantly is a thin spherical shell for which we justify an averaged-emission formula and which implies a distinctive morphology of the angular distribution of HPs on Earth in many cases. Low mass HPs with energies in the visible and IR have resonances very close to the photosphere where the solar plasma is not fully ionised and requires building a detailed model of solar refraction and absorption. We present results for a broad range of HP masses (from 0–1 keV) and energies (from the IR to the X-ray range), the most complete atlas of solar HP emission to date.

  2. Atlas of solar hidden photon emission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Javier, E-mail: redondo@mpp.mpg.de [Departamento de Física Teórica, Universidad de Zaragoza, Pedro Cerbuna 12, E-50009, Zaragoza, España (Spain)

    2015-07-01

    Hidden photons, gauge bosons of a U(1) symmetry of a hidden sector, can constitute the dark matter of the universe and a smoking gun for large volume compactifications of string theory. In the sub-eV mass range, a possible discovery experiment consists on searching the copious flux of these particles emitted from the Sun in a helioscope setup à la Sikivie. In this paper, we compute in great detail the flux of HPs from the Sun, a necessary ingredient for interpreting such experiments. We provide a detailed exposition of transverse photon-HP oscillations in inhomogenous media, with special focus on resonance oscillations, which play a leading role in many cases. The region of the Sun emitting HPs resonantly is a thin spherical shell for which we justify an averaged-emission formula and which implies a distinctive morphology of the angular distribution of HPs on Earth in many cases. Low mass HPs with energies in the visible and IR have resonances very close to the photosphere where the solar plasma is not fully ionised and requires building a detailed model of solar refraction and absorption. We present results for a broad range of HP masses (from 0–1 keV) and energies (from the IR to the X-ray range), the most complete atlas of solar HP emission to date.

  3. Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelioff, Christopher C.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2014-04-01

    We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ɛ-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ɛ-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ɛ-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

  4. Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyet Nguyen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hidden Markov model (HMM is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI, industrial production index (INDPRO, stock market index (S&P 500 and market volatility (VIX. At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500.

  5. Hidden ion population of the magnetosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, R.C.

    1982-01-01

    Particle data from two geosynchronous satellites (Applied Technology Satellite 6 and SCATHA) show a normally hidden ion population appearing when the satellites are in the earth's shadow. Ion and electron data show the spacecraft potential dropping from +10 V in sunlight to +4 and +5 V in eclipse at local midnight, in low-energy (T/sub e/ -2 ), isotropic ion population appears which was invisible in sunlight because of the larger positive spacecraft potential. Higher-energy populations generally cover the tails of the hidden ion populations, so they cannot be inferred from daylight data. The isotropic populations appears only in a few percent of the spacecraft eclipse events, appearing only at times of low Kp (2 or less, preceded by a day with Σ Kp< or =20). A low-energy (T = 1--2 eV) field-aligned population often appears with and without the isotropic population, at slightly higher flux levels. These fluxes are visible in sunlight, but again the distribution functions obtained in eclipse differ from those that would be inferred from daylight data. Measurement of the thermal plasma population on a consistent basis, particularly in the plasma sheet, will require some method of controlling the detector potential with respect to the ambient plamsa

  6. ESO's Hidden Treasures Brought to Light

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 astrophotography competition attracted nearly 100 entries, and ESO is delighted to announce the winners. Hidden Treasures gave amateur astronomers the opportunity to search ESO's vast archives of astronomical data for a well-hidden cosmic gem. Astronomy enthusiast Igor Chekalin from Russia won the first prize in this difficult but rewarding challenge - the trip of a lifetime to ESO's Very Large Telescope at Paranal, Chile. The pictures of the Universe that can be seen in ESO's releases are impressive. However, many hours of skilful work are required to assemble the raw greyscale data captured by the telescopes into these colourful images, correcting them for distortions and unwanted signatures of the instrument, and enhancing them so as to bring out the details contained in the astronomical data. ESO has a team of professional image processors, but for the ESO's Hidden Treasures 2010 competition, the experts decided to give astronomy and photography enthusiasts the opportunity to show the world what they could do with the mammoth amount of data contained in ESO's archives. The enthusiasts who responded to the call submitted nearly 100 entries in total - far exceeding initial expectations, given the difficult nature of the challenge. "We were completely taken aback both by the quantity and the quality of the images that were submitted. This was not a challenge for the faint-hearted, requiring both an advanced knowledge of data processing and an artistic eye. We are thrilled to have discovered so many talented people," said Lars Lindberg Christensen, Head of ESO's education and Public Outreach Department. Digging through many terabytes of professional astronomical data, the entrants had to identify a series of greyscale images of a celestial object that would reveal the hidden beauty of our Universe. The chance of a great reward for the lucky winner was enough to spur on the competitors; the first prize being a trip to ESO's Very Large

  7. Epitope discovery with phylogenetic hidden Markov models.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Lacerda, Miguel

    2010-05-01

    Existing methods for the prediction of immunologically active T-cell epitopes are based on the amino acid sequence or structure of pathogen proteins. Additional information regarding the locations of epitopes may be acquired by considering the evolution of viruses in hosts with different immune backgrounds. In particular, immune-dependent evolutionary patterns at sites within or near T-cell epitopes can be used to enhance epitope identification. We have developed a mutation-selection model of T-cell epitope evolution that allows the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotype of the host to influence the evolutionary process. This is one of the first examples of the incorporation of environmental parameters into a phylogenetic model and has many other potential applications where the selection pressures exerted on an organism can be related directly to environmental factors. We combine this novel evolutionary model with a hidden Markov model to identify contiguous amino acid positions that appear to evolve under immune pressure in the presence of specific host immune alleles and that therefore represent potential epitopes. This phylogenetic hidden Markov model provides a rigorous probabilistic framework that can be combined with sequence or structural information to improve epitope prediction. As a demonstration, we apply the model to a data set of HIV-1 protein-coding sequences and host HLA genotypes.

  8. Pentaquarks with hidden charm as hadroquarkonia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eides, Michael I. [University of Kentucky, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Lexington, KY (United States); Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Petrov, Victor Yu. [Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Polyakov, Maxim V. [Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik II, Bochum (Germany)

    2018-01-15

    We consider hidden charm pentaquarks as hadroquarkonium states in a QCD inspired approach. Pentaquarks arise naturally as bound states of quarkonia excitations and ordinary baryons. The LHCb P{sub c}(4450) pentaquark is interpreted as a ψ{sup '}-nucleon bound state with spin-parity J{sup P} = 3/2{sup -}. The partial decay width Γ(P{sub c}(4450) → J/ψ + N) ∼ 11 MeV is calculated and turned out to be in agreement with the experimental data for P{sub c}(4450). The P{sub c}(4450) pentaquark is predicted to be a member of one of the two almost degenerate hidden-charm baryon octets with spin-parities J{sup P} = 1/2{sup -}, 3/2{sup -}. The masses and decay widths of the octet pentaquarks are calculated. The widths are small and comparable with the width of the P{sub c}(4450) pentaquark, and the masses of the octet pentaquarks satisfy the Gell-Mann-Okubo relation. Interpretation of pentaquarks as loosely bound Σ{sub c} anti D* and Σ{sub c}{sup *} anti D* deuteronlike states is also considered. We determine quantum numbers of these bound states and calculate their masses in the one-pion exchange scenario. The hadroquarkonium and molecular approaches to exotic hadrons are compared and the relative advantages and drawbacks of each approach are discussed. (orig.)

  9. Low energy theorems of hidden local symmetries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harada, Masayasu; Kugo, Taichiro; Yamawaki, Koichi.

    1994-01-01

    We prove to all orders of the loop expansion the low energy theorems of hidden local symmetries in four-dimensional nonlinear sigma models based on the coset space G/H, with G and H being arbitrary compact groups. Although the models are non-renormalizable, the proof is done in an analogous manner to the renormalization proof of gauge theories and two-dimensional nonlinear sigma models by restricting ourselves to the operators with two derivatives (counting a hidden gauge boson field as one derivative), i.e., with dimension 2, which are the only operators relevant to the low energy limit. Through loop-wise mathematical induction based on the Ward-Takahashi identity for the BRS symmetry, we solve renormalization equation for the effective action up to dimension-2 terms plus terms with the relevant BRS sources. We then show that all the quantum corrections to the dimension-2 operators, including the finite parts as well as the divergent ones, can be entirely absorbed into a re-definition (renormalization) of the parameters and the fields in the dimension-2 part of the tree-level Lagrangian. (author)

  10. Black holes, hidden symmetries, and complete integrability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolov, Valeri P; Krtouš, Pavel; Kubizňák, David

    2017-01-01

    The study of higher-dimensional black holes is a subject which has recently attracted vast interest. Perhaps one of the most surprising discoveries is a realization that the properties of higher-dimensional black holes with the spherical horizon topology and described by the Kerr-NUT-(A)dS metrics are very similar to the properties of the well known four-dimensional Kerr metric. This remarkable result stems from the existence of a single object called the principal tensor. In our review we discuss explicit and hidden symmetries of higher-dimensional Kerr-NUT-(A)dS black hole spacetimes. We start with discussion of the Killing and Killing-Yano objects representing explicit and hidden symmetries. We demonstrate that the principal tensor can be used as a "seed object" which generates all these symmetries. It determines the form of the geometry, as well as guarantees its remarkable properties, such as special algebraic type of the spacetime, complete integrability of geodesic motion, and separability of the Hamilton-Jacobi, Klein-Gordon, and Dirac equations. The review also contains a discussion of different applications of the developed formalism and its possible generalizations.

  11. Well-Being Impacts of Human-Elephant Conflict in Khumaga, Botswana: Exploring Visible and Hidden Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison L Mayberry

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available High densities of wild African savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana combined with widespread human land-use have increased human-elephant conflict in northern Botswana. Visible impacts (e.g. crop/property damage, injury/fatality of elephants on human well-being are well documented in scholarly literature while hidden impacts (e.g. emotional stress, restricted mobility are less so. This research uses qualitative methods to explore human experiences with elephants and perceived impacts of elephants on human well-being. Findings reveal participants are concerned about food insecurity and associated visible impacts of elephant crop raids. Findings also reveal participants are concerned about reduced safety and restricted mobility as hidden impacts threatening livelihoods and everyday life. Both visible and hidden impacts of elephants contribute to people's negative feelings towards elephants, as does the broader political context. This research emphasises the importance of investigating both visible and hidden impacts of elephants on human well-being to foster holistic understanding of human-elephant conflict scenarios and to inform future mitigation strategies.

  12. An introduction to hidden Markov models for biological sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1998-01-01

    A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding.......A non-matematical tutorial on hidden Markov models (HMMs) plus a description of one of the applications of HMMs: gene finding....

  13. Asymptotics for Estimating Equations in Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Vinsløv; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    Results on asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimate in hidden Markov models are extended in two directions. The stationarity assumption is relaxed, which allows for a covariate process influencing the hidden Markov process. Furthermore a class of estimating equations is considered...

  14. Secret Codes: The Hidden Curriculum of Semantic Web Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Richard; Carmichael, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    There is a long tradition in education of examination of the hidden curriculum, those elements which are implicit or tacit to the formal goals of education. This article draws upon that tradition to open up for investigation the hidden curriculum and assumptions about students and knowledge that are embedded in the coding undertaken to facilitate…

  15. Searching for hidden sector in multiparticle production at LHC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel-Angel Sanchis-Lozano

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We study the impact of a hidden sector beyond the Standard Model, e.g. a Hidden Valley model, on factorial moments and cumulants of multiplicity distributions in multiparticle production with a special emphasis on the prospects for LHC results.

  16. Hidden Agendas in Marriage: Affective and Longitudinal Dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krokoff, Lowell J.

    1990-01-01

    Examines how couples' discussions of troublesome problems reveal hidden agendas (issues not directly discussed or explored). Finds disgust and contempt are at the core of both love and respect agendas for husbands and wives. Finds that wives' more than husbands' hidden agendas are directly predictive of how negatively they argue at home. (SR)

  17. Hidden symmetries in minimal five-dimensional supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poessel, Markus; Silva, Sebastian

    2004-01-01

    We study the hidden symmetries arising in the dimensional reduction of d=5, N=2 supergravity to three dimensions. Extending previous partial results for the bosonic part, we give a derivation that includes fermionic terms, shedding light on the appearance of the local hidden symmetry SO(4) in the reduction

  18. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  19. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  20. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  1. CDC Vital Signs: Today's Heroin Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the MMWR Science Clips Today’s Heroin Epidemic More people at risk, multiple drugs abused Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This Page Overview Problem Infographics What Can Be Done Issue Details Overview Heroin use has increased across the US among men and ...

  2. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  3. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  4. Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    Swine epidemics can have very large devastating financial consequences. Governments generally bear the direct losses, such as the value of destroyed animals. Consequential losses, such as the losses resulting from empty buildings and movement standstills, are completely borne by the farmers (and

  5. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  6. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  7. [Notes about other epidemics in Colonial Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2015-10-01

    In chronicles or in the historiography of the Colony in Chile there are few references about epidemics different to smallpox; like typhus, typhoid fever, dysentery, etc. Almost all, fast spreading in the country and some with high lethality, which led to overflowing the capacity of hospitals in the Chilean colonial period.

  8. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  9. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  10. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  11. Abelian hidden sectors at a GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrissey, David E.; Poland, David; Zurek, Kathryn M.

    2009-01-01

    We discuss mechanisms for naturally generating GeV-scale hidden sectors in the context of weak-scale supersymmetry. Such low mass scales can arise when hidden sectors are more weakly coupled to supersymmetry breaking than the visible sector, as happens when supersymmetry breaking is communicated to the visible sector by gauge interactions under which the hidden sector is uncharged, or if the hidden sector is sequestered from gravity-mediated supersymmetry breaking. We study these mechanisms in detail in the context of gauge and gaugino mediation, and present specific models of Abelian GeV-scale hidden sectors. In particular, we discuss kinetic mixing of a U(1) x gauge force with hypercharge, singlets or bi-fundamentals which couple to both sectors, and additional loop effects. Finally, we investigate the possible relevance of such sectors for dark matter phenomenology, as well as for low- and high-energy collider searches.

  12. Identifying hidden sexual bridging communities in Chicago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youm, Yoosik; Mackesy-Amiti, Mary Ellen; Williams, Chyvette T; Ouellet, Lawrence J

    2009-07-01

    Bridge populations can play a central role in the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by providing transmission links between higher and lower prevalence populations. While social network methods are well suited to the study of bridge populations, analyses tend to focus on dyads (i.e., risk between drug and/or sex partners) and ignore bridges between distinct subpopulations. This study takes initial steps toward moving the analysis of sexual network linkages beyond individual and risk group levels to a community level in which Chicago's 77 community areas are examined as subpopulations for the purpose of identifying potential bridging communities. Of particular interest are "hidden" bridging communities; that is, areas with above-average levels of sexual ties with other areas but whose below-average AIDS prevalence may hide their potential importance for HIV prevention. Data for this analysis came from the first wave of recruiting at the Chicago Sexual Acquisition and Transmission of HIV Cooperative Agreement Program site. Between August 2005 through October 2006, respondent-driven sampling was used to recruit users of heroin, cocaine, or methamphetamine, men who have sex with men regardless of drug use, the sex partners of these two groups, and sex partners of the sex partners. In this cross-sectional study of the sexual transmission of HIV, participants completed a network-focused computer-assisted self-administered interview, which included questions about the geographic locations of sexual contacts with up to six recent partners. Bridging scores for each area were determined using a matrix representing Chicago's 77 community areas and were assessed using two measures: non-redundant ties and flow betweenness. Bridging measures and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) case prevalence rates were plotted for each community area on charts representing four conditions: below-average bridging and AIDS prevalence, below-average bridging and above

  13. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  14. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  15. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  16. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  17. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  18. … To be hidden does not mean to be merely revealed – Part 1 Artistic research on hidden curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annette Krause

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This text revisits the long-term project Hidden Curriculum, initiated by Annette Krauss. The project addresses unquestioned routines, hierarchies of knowledge (part 1, and the role of the body in learning processes (part 2 from the perspective of secondary/high school education (in the research on a hidden curriculum. A deeper analysis of educational studies on the phenomenon of ‘hidden curriculum’ in relation to the feminist and critical pedagogies of bell hooks, Paulo Freire, and Jacques Rancière brings forward important insights generated through the artistic research within hidden curriculum. The aim of this text is to address academic canons, corporeality, and investigate everyday norms through revisiting the framework, results, and processes of the collaborative research into hidden curriculum with secondary high school students.

  19. Sports Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sometimes you can injure yourself when you play sports or exercise. Accidents, poor training practices, or improper ... can also lead to injuries. The most common sports injuries are Sprains and strains Knee injuries Swollen ...

  20. Golf Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Our Newsletter Donate Blog Skip breadcrumb navigation Preventing Golf Injuries Golf looks like an easy game to ... WHAT TYPES OF INJURIES ARE MOST COMMON IN GOLF? Acute injuries are usually the result of a ...

  1. Dynamic portfolio optimization across hidden market regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Regime-based asset allocation has been shown to add value over rebalancing to static weights and, in particular, reduce potential drawdowns by reacting to changes in market conditions. The predominant approach in previous studies has been to specify in advance a static decision rule for changing...... the allocation based on the state of financial markets or the economy. In this article, model predictive control (MPC) is used to dynamically optimize a portfolio based on forecasts of the mean and variance of financial returns from a hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters. There are computational...... than a buy-and-hold investment in various major stock market indices. This is after accounting for transaction costs, with a one-day delay in the implementation of allocation changes, and with zero-interest cash as the only alternative to the stock indices. Imposing a trading penalty that reduces...

  2. Supersymmetric leptogenesis with a light hidden sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Simone, Andrea

    2010-04-01

    Supersymmetric scenarios incorporating thermal leptogenesis as the origin of the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry generically predict abundances of the primordial elements which are in conflict with observations. In this paper we pro- pose a simple way to circumvent this tension and accommodate naturally ther- mal leptogenesis and primordial nucleosynthesis. We postulate the existence of a light hidden sector, coupled very weakly to the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model, which opens up new decay channels for the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, thus diluting its abundance during nucleosynthesis. We present a general model-independent analysis of this mechanism as well as two concrete realizations, and describe the relevant cosmological and astrophysical bounds and implications for this dark matter scenario. Possible experimental signatures at colliders and in cosmic-ray observations are also discussed. (orig.)

  3. Nuclear scissors modes and hidden angular momenta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balbutsev, E. B., E-mail: balbuts@theor.jinr.ru; Molodtsova, I. V. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Russian Federation); Schuck, P. [Université Paris-Sud, Institut de Physique Nucléaire, IN2P3–CNRS (France)

    2017-01-15

    The coupled dynamics of low-lying modes and various giant resonances are studied with the help of the Wigner Function Moments method generalized to take into account spin degrees of freedom and pair correlations simultaneously. The method is based on Time-Dependent Hartree–Fock–Bogoliubov equations. The model of the harmonic oscillator including spin–orbit potential plus quadrupole–quadrupole and spin–spin interactions is considered. New low-lying spin-dependent modes are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the scissors modes. A new source of nuclear magnetism, connected with counter-rotation of spins up and down around the symmetry axis (hidden angular momenta), is discovered. Its inclusion into the theory allows one to improve substantially the agreement with experimental data in the description of energies and transition probabilities of scissors modes.

  4. Neuroevolution Mechanism for Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil M. Hewahi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Model (HMM is a statistical model based on probabilities. HMM is becoming one of the major models involved in many applications such as natural language
    processing, handwritten recognition, image processing, prediction systems and many more. In this research we are concerned with finding out the best HMM for a certain application domain. We propose a neuroevolution process that is based first on converting the HMM to a neural network, then generating many neural networks at random where each represents a HMM. We proceed by
    applying genetic operators to obtain new set of neural networks where each represents HMMs, and updating the population. Finally select the best neural network based on a fitness function.

  5. Improved hidden Markov model for nosocomial infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khader, Karim; Leecaster, Molly; Greene, Tom; Samore, Matthew; Thomas, Alun

    2014-12-01

    We propose a novel hidden Markov model (HMM) for parameter estimation in hospital transmission models, and show that commonly made simplifying assumptions can lead to severe model misspecification and poor parameter estimates. A standard HMM that embodies two commonly made simplifying assumptions, namely a fixed patient count and binomially distributed detections is compared with a new alternative HMM that does not require these simplifying assumptions. Using simulated data, we demonstrate how each of the simplifying assumptions used by the standard model leads to model misspecification, whereas the alternative model results in accurate parameter estimates. © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

  6. The elliptic genus and Hidden symmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaffe, A.

    2001-01-01

    We study the elliptic genus (a partition function) in certain interacting, twist quantum field theories. Without twists, these theories have N=2 supersymmetry. The twists provide a regularization, and also partially break the supersymmetry. In spite of the regularization, one can establish a homotopy of the elliptic genus in a coupling parameter. Our construction relies on a priori estimates and other methods from constructive quantum field theory; this mathematical underpinning allows us to justify evaluating the elliptic genus at one endpoint of the homotopy. We obtain a version of Witten's proposed formula for the elliptic genus in terms of classical theta functions. As a consequence, the elliptic genus has a hidden SL(2,Z) symmetry characteristic of conformal theory, even though the underlying theory is not conformal. (orig.)

  7. Hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Bin; Long Jiang; Zhang Jiaju

    2010-01-01

    We study the hidden conformal symmetry of extremal black holes. We introduce a new set of conformal coordinates to write the SL(2,R) generators. We find that the Laplacian of the scalar field in many extremal black holes, including Kerr(-Newman), Reissner-Nordstrom, warped AdS 3 , and null warped black holes, could be written in terms of the SL(2,R) quadratic Casimir. This suggests that there exist dual conformal field theory (CFT) descriptions of these black holes. From the conformal coordinates, the temperatures of the dual CFTs could be read directly. For the extremal black hole, the Hawking temperature is vanishing. Correspondingly, only the left (right) temperature of the dual CFT is nonvanishing, and the excitations of the other sector are suppressed. In the probe limit, we compute the scattering amplitudes of the scalar off the extremal black holes and find perfect agreement with the CFT prediction.

  8. Exact solution of the hidden Markov processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saakian, David B.

    2017-11-01

    We write a master equation for the distributions related to hidden Markov processes (HMPs) and solve it using a functional equation. Thus the solution of HMPs is mapped exactly to the solution of the functional equation. For a general case the latter can be solved only numerically. We derive an exact expression for the entropy of HMPs. Our expression for the entropy is an alternative to the ones given before by the solution of integral equations. The exact solution is possible because actually the model can be considered as a generalized random walk on a one-dimensional strip. While we give the solution for the two second-order matrices, our solution can be easily generalized for the L values of the Markov process and M values of observables: We should be able to solve a system of L functional equations in the space of dimension M -1 .

  9. Social exclusion, health and hidden homelessness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, J; Crawley, J; Kane, D

    2016-10-01

    Homelessness and poverty are extreme forms of social exclusion which extend beyond the lack of physical or material needs. The purpose of this study was to explore and expand the concept of social exclusion within the social determinants of health perspective - to understand how the social environment, health behaviours and health status are associated with material and social deprivation. Fundamental qualitative description with tones of focused ethnography. Participants who identified as hidden homeless described their everyday living conditions and how these everyday conditions were impacted and influenced by their social environments, coping/health behaviours and current health status. Research Ethics Board approval was granted and informed consents were obtained from 21 participants prior to the completion of individual interviews. Qualitative content analysis examined the descriptions of men and women experiencing hidden homelessness. Participants described the 'lack of quality social interactions and supports' and their 'daily struggles of street life'. They also shared the 'pain of addiction' and how coping strategies influenced health. Participants were hopeful that their insights would 'better the health of homeless people' by helping shape public policy and funding of community resources that would reduce barriers and improve overall health. Health professionals who understand health behaviours as coping mechanisms for poor quality social environments can provide more comprehensive and holistic care. The findings of this study can be used to support the importance of housing as a key factor in the health and well-being of people experiencing poverty, homelessness and social exclusion; and consequently, reinforces the need for a national housing strategy. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Skyrmions with holography and hidden local symmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nawa, Kanabu; Hosaka, Atsushi; Suganuma, Hideo

    2009-01-01

    We study baryons as Skyrmions in holographic QCD with D4/D8/D8 multi-D brane system in type IIA superstring theory, and also in the nonlinear sigma model with hidden local symmetry. Comparing these two models, we find that the extra dimension and its nontrivial curvature can largely change the role of (axial) vector mesons for baryons in four-dimensional space-time. In the hidden local symmetry approach, the ρ-meson field as a massive Yang-Mills field has a singular configuration in Skyrmion, which gives a strong repulsion for the baryon as a stabilizer. When the a 1 meson is added in this approach, the stability of Skyrmion is lost by the cancellation of ρ and a 1 contributions. On the contrary, in holographic QCD, the ρ-meson field does not appear as a massive Yang-Mills field due to the extra dimension and its nontrivial curvature. We show that the ρ-meson field has a regular configuration in Skyrmion, which gives a weak attraction for the baryon in holographic QCD. We argue that Skyrmion with π, ρ, and a 1 mesons become stable due to the curved extra dimension and also the presence of the Skyrme term in holographic QCD. From this result, we also discuss the features of our truncated-resonance analysis on baryon properties with π and ρ mesons below the cutoff scale M KK ∼1 GeV in holographic QCD, which is compared with other 5D instanton analysis.

  11. Adaptive filtering for hidden node detection and tracking in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Franz; Setzer, Beverly; Chavez, Sergio; Tran, Hien; Lloyd, Alun L

    2017-07-01

    The identification of network connectivity from noisy time series is of great interest in the study of network dynamics. This connectivity estimation problem becomes more complicated when we consider the possibility of hidden nodes within the network. These hidden nodes act as unknown drivers on our network and their presence can lead to the identification of false connections, resulting in incorrect network inference. Detecting the parts of the network they are acting on is thus critical. Here, we propose a novel method for hidden node detection based on an adaptive filtering framework with specific application to neuronal networks. We consider the hidden node as a problem of missing variables when model fitting and show that the estimated system noise covariance provided by the adaptive filter can be used to localize the influence of the hidden nodes and distinguish the effects of different hidden nodes. Additionally, we show that the sequential nature of our algorithm allows for tracking changes in the hidden node influence over time.

  12. Hidden gauge structure of supersymmetric free differential algebras

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianopoli, Laura [DISAT, Politecnico di Torino,Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Torino,Torino (Italy); D’Auria, Riccardo [DISAT, Politecnico di Torino,Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin (Italy); Ravera, Lucrezia [DISAT, Politecnico di Torino,Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Torino,Torino (Italy)

    2016-08-16

    The aim of this paper is to clarify the role of the nilpotent fermionic generator Q{sup ′} introduced in http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0550-3213(82)90376-5 and appearing in the hidden supergroup underlying the free differential algebra (FDA) of D=11 supergravity. We give a physical explanation of its role by looking at the gauge properties of the theory. We find that its presence is necessary, in order that the extra 1-forms of the hidden supergroup give rise to the correct gauge transformations of the p-forms of the FDA. This interpretation is actually valid for any supergravity containing antisymmetric tensor fields, and any supersymmetric FDA can always be traded for a hidden Lie superalgebra containing extra fermionic nilpotent generators. As an interesting example we construct the hidden superalgebra associated with the FDA of N=2, D=7 supergravity. In this case we are able to parametrize the mutually non local 2- and 3-form B{sup (2)} and B{sup (3)} in terms of hidden 1-forms and find that supersymmetry and gauge invariance require in general the presence of two nilpotent fermionic generators in the hidden algebra. We propose that our approach, where all the invariances of the FDA are expressed as Lie derivatives of the p-forms in the hidden supergroup manifold, could be an appropriate framework to discuss theories defined in enlarged versions of superspace recently considered in the literature, such us double field theory and its generalizations.

  13. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  14. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  15. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  16. Sociocultural Dimension of Hidden Content in a Professional Language Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina E. Shishlova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: studying curriculum as a pedagogical problem has traditionally been reduced to the analysis of its explicit content, set in official educational documents. However, a much less studied hidden content plays a significant role in education. So, what is the role of the hidden curriculum during professional language training? The purpose of the article is to determine the potential impact of hidden curriculum on students’ conceptual worldview. Comparing the worldview presented in textbooks with students’ one has allowed us to estimate the rate of influence of hidden curr iculum. Materials and Methods: the methodological basis of the work is the cultural concept of personalityoriented education. The methodology for studying the role of hidden curriculum includes four stages: at the first stage, the authors set the criteria for selecting textbooks for analysis and do the selection; at the second stage, the authors select sociocultural concepts for analysis; at the third stage, the scheme of analysis is designed and the analysis of textbooks is done; at the fourth stage, the authors identify the potential influence of hidden curriculum on students’ conceptual worldview. Results: the structure of hidden curriculum has been determined and the scheme for analysing its subject component has been developed. The authors have identified a significant influence of hidden curriculum on students’ worldview, which represents the scientific novelty of the article. Discussion and Conclusions: the article gives the definition of a hidden curriculum which is new for Russian pedagogy and presents a methodology for its analysis in EFL textbooks. That analysis is recommended to be conducted when selecting teaching materials both i n languages and other humanities.

  17. Multilayer Neural Networks with Extensively Many Hidden Units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen-Zvi, Michal; Engel, Andreas; Kanter, Ido

    2001-01-01

    The information processing abilities of a multilayer neural network with a number of hidden units scaling as the input dimension are studied using statistical mechanics methods. The mapping from the input layer to the hidden units is performed by general symmetric Boolean functions, whereas the hidden layer is connected to the output by either discrete or continuous couplings. Introducing an overlap in the space of Boolean functions as order parameter, the storage capacity is found to scale with the logarithm of the number of implementable Boolean functions. The generalization behavior is smooth for continuous couplings and shows a discontinuous transition to perfect generalization for discrete ones

  18. Update on hidden sectors with dark forces and dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreas, Sarah

    2012-11-15

    Recently there has been much interest in hidden sectors, especially in the context of dark matter and ''dark forces'', since they are a common feature of beyond standard model scenarios like string theory and SUSY and additionally exhibit interesting phenomenological aspects. Various laboratory experiments place limits on the so-called hidden photon and continuously further probe and constrain the parameter space; an updated overview is presented here. Furthermore, for several hidden sector models with light dark matter we study the viability with respect to the relic abundance and direct detection experiments.

  19. Hidden photon dark matter search with large metallic mirror

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doebrich, Babette; Lindner, Axel; Daumiller, Kai; Engel, Ralph; Roth, Markus; Kowalski, Marek

    2014-10-01

    If Dark Matter is composed of hidden-sector photons that kinetically mix with photons of the visible sector, then Dark Matter has a tiny oscillating electric field component. Its presence would lead to a small amount of visible radiation being emitted from a conducting surface, with the photon frequency given approximately by the mass of the hidden photon. Here, we report on experimental efforts that have started recently to search for such hidden photon Dark Matter in the (sub-)eV regime with a prototype mirror for the Auger fluorescence detector at the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology.

  20. Naturally light hidden photons in LARGE volume string compactifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodsell, M.; Jaeckel, J.; Redondo, J.; Ringwald, A.

    2009-09-01

    Extra ''hidden'' U(1) gauge factors are a generic feature of string theory that is of particular phenomenological interest. They can kinetically mix with the Standard Model photon and are thereby accessible to a wide variety of astrophysical and cosmological observations and laboratory experiments. In this paper we investigate the masses and the kinetic mixing of hidden U(1)s in LARGE volume compactifications of string theory. We find that in these scenarios the hidden photons can be naturally light and that their kinetic mixing with the ordinary electromagnetic photon can be of a size interesting for near future experiments and observations. (orig.)

  1. Hidden Area and Mechanical Nonlinearities in Freestanding Graphene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Ryan J. T.; Lavrik, Nickolay V.; Vlassiouk, Ivan; Srijanto, Bernadeta R.; Bolotin, Kirill I.

    2017-06-01

    We investigated the effect of out-of-plane crumpling on the mechanical response of graphene membranes. In our experiments, stress was applied to graphene membranes using pressurized gas while the strain state was monitored through two complementary techniques: interferometric profilometry and Raman spectroscopy. By comparing the data obtained through these two techniques, we determined the geometric hidden area which quantifies the crumpling strength. While the devices with hidden area ˜0 % obeyed linear mechanics with biaxial stiffness 428 ±10 N /m , specimens with hidden area in the range 0.5%-1.0% were found to obey an anomalous nonlinear Hooke's law with an exponent ˜0.1 .

  2. Context Tree Estimation in Variable Length Hidden Markov Models

    OpenAIRE

    Dumont, Thierry

    2011-01-01

    We address the issue of context tree estimation in variable length hidden Markov models. We propose an estimator of the context tree of the hidden Markov process which needs no prior upper bound on the depth of the context tree. We prove that the estimator is strongly consistent. This uses information-theoretic mixture inequalities in the spirit of Finesso and Lorenzo(Consistent estimation of the order for Markov and hidden Markov chains(1990)) and E.Gassiat and S.Boucheron (Optimal error exp...

  3. Local models and hidden nonlocality in Quantum Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Guerini, Leonardo

    2014-01-01

    This Master's thesis has two central subjects: the simulation of correlations generated by local measurements on entangled quantum states by local hidden-variables models and the revelation of hidden nonlocality. We present and detail the Werner's local model and the hidden nonlocality of some Werner states of dimension $d\\geq5$, the Gisin-Degorre's local model for a Werner state of dimension $d=2$ and the local model of Hirsch et al. for mixtures of the singlet state and noise, all of them f...

  4. Suppressing the QCD axion abundance by hidden monopoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawasaki, Masahiro

    2015-11-01

    We study the Witten effect of hidden monopoles on the QCD axion dynamics, and show that its abundance as well as isocurvature perturbations can be significantly suppressed if there is a sufficient amount of hidden monopoles. When the hidden monopoles make up a significant fraction of dark matter, the Witten effect suppresses the abundance of axion with the decay constant smaller than 10 12 GeV. The cosmological domain wall problem of the QCD axion can also be avoided, relaxing the upper bound on the decay constant when the Peccei-Quinn symmetry is spontaneously broken after inflation.

  5. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  6. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  7. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  8. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  9. Ciguatera fish poisoning. A southern California epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, E D; Tanner, P; Turchen, S G; Tunget, C L; Manoguerra, A; Clark, R F

    1995-01-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning results from the bioconcentration of a variety of toxins produced by marine dinoflagellates. Signs and symptoms vary widely, but it usually presents as gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints beginning shortly after the ingestion of fish containing the toxins. Symptoms may persist for months and sometimes even years. Although cases have been reported throughout the United States, epidemics are most common along tropical and subtropical coasts and usually involve the ingestion of large carnivorous fish. We review the literature and report the first epidemic of 25 cases of ciguatera fish poisoning presenting to area hospitals in Southern California that were successfully tracked by the Department of Health Services and isolated to fish caught off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Images Figure 1. PMID:7667980

  10. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  11. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  12. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  13. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  14. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  15. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  16. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  17. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  18. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  19. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  1. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  2. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  3. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  4. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  6. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  7. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. High Energy Colliders and Hidden Sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dror, Asaf Jeff

    This thesis explores two dominant frontiers of theoretical physics, high energy colliders and hidden sectors. The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is just starting to reach its maximum operational capabilities. However, already with the current data, large classes of models are being put under significant pressure. It is crucial to understand whether the (thus far) null results are a consequence of a lack of solution to the hierarchy problem around the weak scale or requires expanding the search strategy employed at the LHC. It is the duty of the current generation of physicists to design new searches to ensure that no stone is left unturned. To this end, we study the sensitivity of the LHC to the couplings in the Standard Model top sector. We find it can significantly improve the measurements on ZtRtR coupling by a novel search strategy, making use of an implied unitarity violation in such models. Analogously, we show that other couplings in the top sector can also be measured with the same technique. Furthermore, we critically analyze a set of anomalies in the LHC data and how they may appear from consistent UV completions. We also propose a technique to measure lifetimes of new colored particles with non-trivial spin. While the high energy frontier will continue to take data, it is likely the only collider of its kind for the next couple decades. On the other hand, low-energy experiments have a promising future with many new proposed experiments to probe the existence of particles well below the weak scale but with small couplings to the Standard Model. In this work we survey the different possibilities, focusingon the constraints as well as possible new hidden sector dynamics. In particular, we show that vector portals which couple to an anomalous current, e.g., baryon number, are significantly constrained from flavor changing meson decays and rare Z decays. Furthermore, we present a new mechanism for dark matter freezeout which depletes the dark sector through an

  9. Alleviating hidden hunger. Approaches that work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, E.; Mannar, V.; Iyengar, V.

    2003-01-01

    The world has come a long way in understanding the nature, magnitude and range of solutions to micronutrient malnutrition - often called 'hidden hunger'. The most sustainable solutions - that is those that are likely to be maintained in the long term - almost surely will include food-based approaches including diet diversity, food fortification and biofortification. Food fortification and biofortification could be some of the most cost-effective of all public health interventions and thus within the economic reach of even the world's poorest. In order to implement them in a sustainable manner, a combination of technical, operational, economic, behavioural and political factors need to be addressed. In some ways the technological issues are the easiest. Because of attention to research, we now have a variety of ways for both single and multiple micronutrients to reach the target population. We also know what is needed in order to ensure delivery systems. The key factor for continued success in reducing micronutrient malnutrition through fortification is a political commitment at the national and international level and creating effective public-private partnerships at the national level. The payoff for eliminating hidden hunger through nutrient fortification is enormous and few other public health interventions offer such a promising health, nutrition and economic success story. Nuclear and isotopic techniques are valuable tools in helping to meet the multifaceted challenges posed by nutritional disorders affecting the entire human life span (embryonic to elderly). Among the numerous applications available, isotopic techniques are uniquely well suited for targeting and tracking progress in food and nutrition development programmes (See box: How Nutrients are Tracked). These include: use of the stable isotopes of iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn) as a kind of gold standard in studies of their bioavailability from foods; trace element bioavailability and pool sizes for

  10. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  11. Prediction of Annual Rainfall Pattern Using Hidden Markov Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Hidden Markov model is very influential in stochastic world because of its ... the earth from the clouds. The usual ... Rainfall modelling and ... Markov Models have become popular tools ... environment sciences, University of Jos, plateau state,.

  12. New limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dumps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreas, Sarah; Niebuhr, Carsten; Ringwald, Andreas

    2012-09-01

    Hidden sectors with light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so called hidden photons, have recently attracted some attention because they are a common feature of physics beyond the Standard Model like string theory and SUSY and additionally are phenomenologically of great interest regarding recent astrophysical observations. The hidden photon is already constrained by various laboratory experiments and presently searched for in running as well as upcoming experiments. We summarize the current status of limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from such experiments at KEK and Orsay that have so far not been considered. All our limits take into account the experimental acceptances obtained from Monte Carlo simulations.

  13. Search for hidden particles with the SHiP experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagner, Caren; Bick, Daniel; Bieschke, Stefan; Ebert, Joachim; Schmidt-Parzefall, Walter [Universitaet Hamburg, Institut fuer Experimentalphysik, Luruper Chaussee 149, 22761 Hamburg (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Many theories beyond the standard model predict long lived neutral (hidden) particles. There might be a whole Hidden Sector (HS) of weakly interacting particles, which cannot be detected in existing high energy experiments. The SHiP experiment (Search for Hidden Particles) requires a high intensity beam dump, which could be realized by a new facility at the CERN SPS accelerator. New superweakly interacting particles with masses below O(10) GeV could be produced in the beam dump and detected in a general purpose Hidden Sector (HS) detector. In addition there will be a dedicated tau neutrino subdetector. I present the major requirements and technical challenges for the HS detector and discuss how the HS can be accessed through several portals: neutrino portal, scalar portal, vector portal and many more.

  14. Cosmological abundance of the QCD axion coupled to hidden photons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitajima, Naoya; Sekiguchi, Toyokazu; Takahashi, Fuminobu

    2018-06-01

    We study the cosmological evolution of the QCD axion coupled to hidden photons. For a moderately strong coupling, the motion of the axion field leads to an explosive production of hidden photons by tachyonic instability. We use lattice simulations to evaluate the cosmological abundance of the QCD axion. In doing so, we incorporate the backreaction of the produced hidden photons on the axion dynamics, which becomes significant in the non-linear regime. We find that the axion abundance is suppressed by at most O (102) for the decay constant fa =1016GeV, compared to the case without the coupling. For a sufficiently large coupling, the motion of the QCD axion becomes strongly damped, and as a result, the axion abundance is enhanced. Our results show that the cosmological upper bound on the axion decay constant can be relaxed by a few hundred for a certain range of the coupling to hidden photons.

  15. Dopamine reward prediction errors reflect hidden state inference across time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starkweather, Clara Kwon; Babayan, Benedicte M.; Uchida, Naoshige; Gershman, Samuel J.

    2017-01-01

    Midbrain dopamine neurons signal reward prediction error (RPE), or actual minus expected reward. The temporal difference (TD) learning model has been a cornerstone in understanding how dopamine RPEs could drive associative learning. Classically, TD learning imparts value to features that serially track elapsed time relative to observable stimuli. In the real world, however, sensory stimuli provide ambiguous information about the hidden state of the environment, leading to the proposal that TD learning might instead compute a value signal based on an inferred distribution of hidden states (a ‘belief state’). In this work, we asked whether dopaminergic signaling supports a TD learning framework that operates over hidden states. We found that dopamine signaling exhibited a striking difference between two tasks that differed only with respect to whether reward was delivered deterministically. Our results favor an associative learning rule that combines cached values with hidden state inference. PMID:28263301

  16. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model. (HMM) based ... the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum ..... data collection teams of Snow and Avalanche Study.

  17. On the LHC sensitivity for non-thermalised hidden sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahlhoefer, Felix

    2018-04-01

    We show under rather general assumptions that hidden sectors that never reach thermal equilibrium in the early Universe are also inaccessible for the LHC. In other words, any particle that can be produced at the LHC must either have been in thermal equilibrium with the Standard Model at some point or must be produced via the decays of another hidden sector particle that has been in thermal equilibrium. To reach this conclusion, we parametrise the cross section connecting the Standard Model to the hidden sector in a very general way and use methods from linear programming to calculate the largest possible number of LHC events compatible with the requirement of non-thermalisation. We find that even the HL-LHC cannot possibly produce more than a few events with energy above 10 GeV involving states from a non-thermalised hidden sector.

  18. New limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dumps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreas, Sarah; Niebuhr, Carsten; Ringwald, Andreas

    2012-09-15

    Hidden sectors with light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so called hidden photons, have recently attracted some attention because they are a common feature of physics beyond the Standard Model like string theory and SUSY and additionally are phenomenologically of great interest regarding recent astrophysical observations. The hidden photon is already constrained by various laboratory experiments and presently searched for in running as well as upcoming experiments. We summarize the current status of limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from such experiments at KEK and Orsay that have so far not been considered. All our limits take into account the experimental acceptances obtained from Monte Carlo simulations.

  19. A Novel Method for Decoding Any High-Order Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ye

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for decoding any high-order hidden Markov model. First, the high-order hidden Markov model is transformed into an equivalent first-order hidden Markov model by Hadar’s transformation. Next, the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model is recognized by the existing Viterbi algorithm of the first-order hidden Markov model. Finally, the optimal state sequence of the high-order hidden Markov model is inferred from the optimal state sequence of the equivalent first-order hidden Markov model. This method provides a unified algorithm framework for decoding hidden Markov models including the first-order hidden Markov model and any high-order hidden Markov model.

  20. Melamine nephrotoxicity: an emerging epidemic in an era of globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhalla, Vivek; Grimm, Paul C; Chertow, Glenn M; Pao, Alan C

    2009-04-01

    Recent outbreaks of nephrolithiasis and acute kidney injury among children in China have been linked to ingestion of milk-based infant formula contaminated with melamine. These cases provide evidence in humans for the nephrotoxicity of melamine, which previously had been described only in animals. The consequences of this outbreak are already severe and will likely continue to worsen. Herein we summarize the global impact of the melamine milk contamination, the reemergence of melamine-tainted animal feed, and potential mechanisms of melamine nephrotoxicity. Large-scale epidemiologic studies are necessary to further characterize this disease and to assess its potential long-term sequelae. This epidemic of environmental kidney disease highlights the morbidity associated with adulterated food products available in today's global marketplace and reminds us of the unique vulnerability of the kidney to environmental insults. Melamine is the latest in a growing list of diverse potentially toxic compounds about which nephrologists and other health-care providers responsible for the diagnosis and management of kidney disease must now be aware.

  1. A two particle hidden sector and the oscillations with photons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez, Pedro D. [Universidad de Antofagasta, Departamento de Fisica, Antofagasta (Chile); Arias, Paola; Maldonado, Carlos [Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Departmento de Fisica, Santiago (Chile)

    2018-01-15

    We present a detailed study of the oscillations and optical properties for vacuum, in a model for the dark sector that contains axion-like particles and hidden photons. We provide bounds for the couplings versus the mass, using current results from ALPS-I and PVLAS. We also discuss the challenges for the detection of models with more than one hidden particle in light shining trough wall-like experiments. (orig.)

  2. Rare Z boson decays to a hidden sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blinov, Nikita; Izaguirre, Eder; Shuve, Brian

    2018-01-01

    We demonstrate that rare decays of the Standard Model Z boson can be used to discover and characterize the nature of new hidden-sector particles. We propose new searches for these particles in soft, high-multiplicity leptonic final states at the Large Hadron Collider. The proposed searches are sensitive to low-mass particles produced in Z decays, and we argue that these striking signatures can shed light on the hidden-sector couplings and mechanism for mass generation.

  3. Anticipating hidden text salting in emails (extended abstract)

    OpenAIRE

    Lioma, Christina; Moens, Marie-Francine; Gomez, Juan Carlos; De Beer, Jan; Bergholz, Andre; Paass, Gerhard; Horkan, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    Salting is the intentional addition or distortion of content, aimed to evade automatic filtering. Salting is usually found in spam emails. Salting can also be hidden in phishing emails, which aim to steal personal information from users. We present a novel method that detects hidden salting tricks as visual anomalies in text. We solely use these salting tricks to successfully classify emails as phishing (F-measure >90%).

  4. Hidden twelve-dimensional super Poincare symmetry in eleven dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bars, Itzhak; Deliduman, Cemsinan; Pasqua, Andrea; Zumino, Bruno

    2004-01-01

    First, we review a result in our previous paper, of how a ten-dimensional superparticle, taken off-shell, has a hidden eleven-dimensional super Poincare symmetry. Then, we show that the physical sector is defined by three first-class constraints which preserve the full eleven-dimensional symmetry. Applying the same concepts to the eleven-dimensional superparticle, taken off-shell, we discover a hidden twelve-dimensional super Poincare symmetry that governs the theory

  5. Hidden charged dark matter and chiral dark radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, P.; Nagata, Natsumi; Tang, Yong

    2017-10-01

    In the light of recent possible tensions in the Hubble constant H0 and the structure growth rate σ8 between the Planck and other measurements, we investigate a hidden-charged dark matter (DM) model where DM interacts with hidden chiral fermions, which are charged under the hidden SU(N) and U(1) gauge interactions. The symmetries in this model assure these fermions to be massless. The DM in this model, which is a Dirac fermion and singlet under the hidden SU(N), is also assumed to be charged under the U(1) gauge symmetry, through which it can interact with the chiral fermions. Below the confinement scale of SU(N), the hidden quark condensate spontaneously breaks the U(1) gauge symmetry such that there remains a discrete symmetry, which accounts for the stability of DM. This condensate also breaks a flavor symmetry in this model and Nambu-Goldstone bosons associated with this flavor symmetry appear below the confinement scale. The hidden U(1) gauge boson and hidden quarks/Nambu-Goldstone bosons are components of dark radiation (DR) above/below the confinement scale. These light fields increase the effective number of neutrinos by δNeff ≃ 0.59 above the confinement scale for N = 2, resolving the tension in the measurements of the Hubble constant by Planck and Hubble Space Telescope if the confinement scale is ≲1 eV. DM and DR continuously scatter with each other via the hidden U(1) gauge interaction, which suppresses the matter power spectrum and results in a smaller structure growth rate. The DM sector couples to the Standard Model sector through the exchange of a real singlet scalar mixing with the Higgs boson, which makes it possible to probe our model in DM direct detection experiments. Variants of this model are also discussed, which may offer alternative ways to investigate this scenario.

  6. Hidden Markov models in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrzoskowicz, Adam

    1993-11-01

    This article describes a method for constructing an automatic speech recognition system based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). The author discusses the basic concepts of HMM theory and the application of these models to the analysis and recognition of speech signals. The author provides algorithms which make it possible to train the ASR system and recognize signals on the basis of distinct stochastic models of selected speech sound classes. The author describes the specific components of the system and the procedures used to model and recognize speech. The author discusses problems associated with the choice of optimal signal detection and parameterization characteristics and their effect on the performance of the system. The author presents different options for the choice of speech signal segments and their consequences for the ASR process. The author gives special attention to the use of lexical, syntactic, and semantic information for the purpose of improving the quality and efficiency of the system. The author also describes an ASR system developed by the Speech Acoustics Laboratory of the IBPT PAS. The author discusses the results of experiments on the effect of noise on the performance of the ASR system and describes methods of constructing HMM's designed to operate in a noisy environment. The author also describes a language for human-robot communications which was defined as a complex multilevel network from an HMM model of speech sounds geared towards Polish inflections. The author also added mandatory lexical and syntactic rules to the system for its communications vocabulary.

  7. Search algorithms, hidden labour and information control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paško Bilić

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines some of the processes of the closely knit relationship between Google’s ideologies of neutrality and objectivity and global market dominance. Neutrality construction comprises an important element sustaining the company’s economic position and is reflected in constant updates, estimates and changes to utility and relevance of search results. Providing a purely technical solution to these issues proves to be increasingly difficult without a human hand in steering algorithmic solutions. Search relevance fluctuates and shifts through continuous tinkering and tweaking of the search algorithm. The company also uses third parties to hire human raters for performing quality assessments of algorithmic updates and adaptations in linguistically and culturally diverse global markets. The adaptation process contradicts the technical foundations of the company and calculations based on the initial Page Rank algorithm. Annual market reports, Google’s Search Quality Rating Guidelines, and reports from media specialising in search engine optimisation business are analysed. The Search Quality Rating Guidelines document provides a rare glimpse into the internal architecture of search algorithms and the notions of utility and relevance which are presented and structured as neutral and objective. Intertwined layers of ideology, hidden labour of human raters, advertising revenues, market dominance and control are discussed throughout the paper.

  8. Hidden Structural Codes in Protein Intrinsic Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borkosky, Silvia S; Camporeale, Gabriela; Chemes, Lucía B; Risso, Marikena; Noval, María Gabriela; Sánchez, Ignacio E; Alonso, Leonardo G; de Prat Gay, Gonzalo

    2017-10-17

    Intrinsic disorder is a major structural category in biology, accounting for more than 30% of coding regions across the domains of life, yet consists of conformational ensembles in equilibrium, a major challenge in protein chemistry. Anciently evolved papillomavirus genomes constitute an unparalleled case for sequence to structure-function correlation in cases in which there are no folded structures. E7, the major transforming oncoprotein of human papillomaviruses, is a paradigmatic example among the intrinsically disordered proteins. Analysis of a large number of sequences of the same viral protein allowed for the identification of a handful of residues with absolute conservation, scattered along the sequence of its N-terminal intrinsically disordered domain, which intriguingly are mostly leucine residues. Mutation of these led to a pronounced increase in both α-helix and β-sheet structural content, reflected by drastic effects on equilibrium propensities and oligomerization kinetics, and uncovers the existence of local structural elements that oppose canonical folding. These folding relays suggest the existence of yet undefined hidden structural codes behind intrinsic disorder in this model protein. Thus, evolution pinpoints conformational hot spots that could have not been identified by direct experimental methods for analyzing or perturbing the equilibrium of an intrinsically disordered protein ensemble.

  9. Dietary phytate, zinc and hidden zinc deficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandstead, Harold H; Freeland-Graves, Jeanne H

    2014-10-01

    Epidemiological data suggest at least one in five humans are at risk of zinc deficiency. This is in large part because the phytate in cereals and legumes has not been removed during food preparation. Phytate, a potent indigestible ligand for zinc prevents it's absorption. Without knowledge of the frequency of consumption of foods rich in phytate, and foods rich in bioavailable zinc, the recognition of zinc deficiency early in the illness may be difficult. Plasma zinc is insensitive to early zinc deficiency. Serum ferritin concentration≤20μg/L is a potential indirect biomarker. Early effects of zinc deficiency are chemical, functional and may be "hidden". The clinical problem is illustrated by 2 studies that involved US Mexican-American children, and US premenopausal women. The children were consuming home diets that included traditional foods high in phytate. The premenopausal women were not eating red meat on a regular basis, and their consumption of phytate was mainly from bran breakfast cereals. In both studies the presence of zinc deficiency was proven by functional responses to controlled zinc treatment. In the children lean-mass, reasoning, and immunity were significantly affected. In the women memory, reasoning, and eye-hand coordination were significantly affected. A screening self-administered food frequency questionnaire for office might help caregiver's identify patients at risk of zinc deficiency. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  10. Natural inflation with hidden scale invariance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil D. Barrie

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new class of natural inflation models based on a hidden scale invariance. In a very generic Wilsonian effective field theory with an arbitrary number of scalar fields, which exhibits scale invariance via the dilaton, the potential necessarily contains a flat direction in the classical limit. This flat direction is lifted by small quantum corrections and inflation is realised without need for an unnatural fine-tuning. In the conformal limit, the effective potential becomes linear in the inflaton field, yielding to specific predictions for the spectral index and the tensor-to-scalar ratio, being respectively: ns−1≈−0.025(N⋆60−1 and r≈0.0667(N⋆60−1, where N⋆≈30–65 is a number of efolds during observable inflation. This predictions are in reasonable agreement with cosmological measurements. Further improvement of the accuracy of these measurements may turn out to be critical in falsifying our scenario.

  11. Detecting hidden sources-STUK/HUT team

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikkinen, M.; Aarnio, P. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland); Honkamaa, T.; Tiilikainen, H. [Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety, Helsinki (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The task of the team was to locate and to identify hidden sources in a specified area in Padasjoki Auttoinen village. The team used AB-420 helicopter of the Finnish Frontier Guard. The team had two measuring systems: HPGe system (relative efficiency 18%) and 5`x5` NaI system. The team found two sources in real-time and additional two sources after 24 h analysis time. After the locations and characteristics of the sources were announced it was found out that altogether six sources would have been possible to find using the measured data. The total number of sources was ten. The NaI detector was good at detecting and locating the sources and HPGe was most useful in identification and calculation of the activity estimates. The following development should be made: 1) larger detectors are needed, 2) the software has to be improved. (This has been performed after the exercise) and 3) the navigation must be based on DGPS. visual navigation causes easily gaps between the flight lines and some sources may not be detected. (au).

  12. Gauging hidden symmetries in two dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samtleben, Henning; Weidner, Martin

    2007-01-01

    We initiate the systematic construction of gauged matter-coupled supergravity theories in two dimensions. Subgroups of the affine global symmetry group of toroidally compactified supergravity can be gauged by coupling vector fields with minimal couplings and a particular topological term. The gauge groups typically include hidden symmetries that are not among the target-space isometries of the ungauged theory. The gaugings constructed in this paper are described group-theoretically in terms of a constant embedding tensor subject to a number of constraints which parametrizes the different theories and entirely encodes the gauged Lagrangian. The prime example is the bosonic sector of the maximally supersymmetric theory whose ungauged version admits an affine e 9 global symmetry algebra. The various parameters (related to higher-dimensional p-form fluxes, geometric and non-geometric fluxes, etc.) which characterize the possible gaugings, combine into an embedding tensor transforming in the basic representation of e 9 . This yields an infinite-dimensional class of maximally supersymmetric theories in two dimensions. We work out and discuss several examples of higher-dimensional origin which can be systematically analyzed using the different gradings of e 9

  13. Detecting hidden sources-STUK/HUT team

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikkinen, M; Aarnio, P [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland); Honkamaa, T; Tiilikainen, H [Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety, Helsinki (Finland)

    1998-12-31

    The task of the team was to locate and to identify hidden sources in a specified area in Padasjoki Auttoinen village. The team used AB-420 helicopter of the Finnish Frontier Guard. The team had two measuring systems: HPGe system (relative efficiency 18%) and 5`x5` NaI system. The team found two sources in real-time and additional two sources after 24 h analysis time. After the locations and characteristics of the sources were announced it was found out that altogether six sources would have been possible to find using the measured data. The total number of sources was ten. The NaI detector was good at detecting and locating the sources and HPGe was most useful in identification and calculation of the activity estimates. The following development should be made: 1) larger detectors are needed, 2) the software has to be improved. (This has been performed after the exercise) and 3) the navigation must be based on DGPS. visual navigation causes easily gaps between the flight lines and some sources may not be detected. (au).

  14. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  16. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  17. Hidden-Sector Dynamics and the Supersymmetric Seesaw

    CERN Document Server

    Campbell, Bruce A; Maybury, David W

    2008-01-01

    In light of recent analyses that have shown that nontrivial hidden-sector dynamics in models of supersymmetry breaking can lead to a significant impact on the predicted low-energy supersymmetric spectrum, we extend these studies to consider hidden-sector effects in extensions of the MSSM to include a seesaw model for neutrino masses. A dynamical hidden sector in an interval of mass scales below the seesaw scale would yield renormalization-group running involving both the anomalous dimension from the hidden sector and the seesaw-extended MSSM renormalization group equations (RGEs). These effects interfere in general, altering the generational mixing of the sleptons, and allowing for a substantial change to the expected level of charged-lepton flavour violation in seesaw-extended MSSM models. These results provide further support for recent theoretical observations that knowledge of the hidden sector is required in order to make concrete low-energy predictions, if the hidden sector is strongly coupled. In parti...

  18. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  19. A single hidden layer feedforward network with only one neuron in the hidden layer can approximate any univariate function

    OpenAIRE

    Guliyev , Namig; Ismailov , Vugar

    2016-01-01

    The possibility of approximating a continuous function on a compact subset of the real line by a feedforward single hidden layer neural network with a sigmoidal activation function has been studied in many papers. Such networks can approximate an arbitrary continuous function provided that an unlimited number of neurons in a hidden layer is permitted. In this paper, we consider constructive approximation on any finite interval of $\\mathbb{R}$ by neural networks with only one neuron in the hid...

  20. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  1. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  2. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  3. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  4. Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

    2008-03-01

    When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

  5. Generalized epidemic process on modular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kihong; Baek, Yongjoo; Kim, Daniel; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2014-05-01

    Social reinforcement and modular structure are two salient features observed in the spreading of behavior through social contacts. In order to investigate the interplay between these two features, we study the generalized epidemic process on modular networks with equal-sized finite communities and adjustable modularity. Using the analytical approach originally applied to clique-based random networks, we show that the system exhibits a bond-percolation type continuous phase transition for weak social reinforcement, whereas a discontinuous phase transition occurs for sufficiently strong social reinforcement. Our findings are numerically verified using the finite-size scaling analysis and the crossings of the bimodality coefficient.

  6. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Hidden burden of malaria in Indian women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma Vinod P

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Malaria is endemic in India with an estimated 70-100 million cases each year (1.6-1.8 million reported by NVBDCP; of this 50-55% are Plasmodium vivax and 45-50% Plasmodium falciparum. A recent study on malaria in pregnancy reported from undivided Madhya Pradesh state (includes Chhattisgarh state, that an estimated over 220,000 pregnant women contract malaria infection each year. Malaria in pregnancy caused- abortions 34.5%; stillbirths 9%; and maternal deaths 0.45%. Bulk of this tragic outcome can be averted by following the Roll Back Malaria/WHO recommendations of the use of malaria prevention i.e. indoor residual spraying (IRS/insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN preferably long-lasting treated bed nets (LLIN; intermittent preventive therapy (IPT; early diagnosis, prompt and complete treatment using microscopic/malaria rapid diagnostics test (RDT and case management. High incidence in pregnancy has arisen because of malaria surveillance lacking coverage, lack of age and sex wise data, staff shortages, and intermittent preventive treatment (IPT applicable in high transmission states/pockets is not included in the national drug policy- an essential component of fighting malaria in pregnancy in African settings. Inadequate surveillance and gross under-reporting has been highlighted time and again for over three decades. As a result the huge problem of malaria in pregnancy reported occasionally by researchers has remained hidden. Malaria in pregnancy may quicken severity in patients with drug resistant parasites, anaemia, endemic poverty, and malnutrition. There is, therefore, urgent need to streamline malaria control strategies to make a difference in tackling this grim scenario in human health.

  8. Hydrogeophysical investigations at Hidden Dam, Raymond, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minsley, Burke J.; Burton, Bethany L.; Ikard, Scott; Powers, Michael H.

    2011-01-01

    Self-potential and direct current resistivity surveys are carried out at the Hidden Dam site in Raymond, California to assess present-day seepage patterns and better understand the hydrogeologic mechanisms that likely influence seepage. Numerical modeling is utilized in conjunction with the geophysical measurements to predict variably-saturated flow through typical two-dimensional dam cross-sections as a function of reservoir elevation. Several different flow scenarios are investigated based on the known hydrogeology, as well as information about typical subsurface structures gained from the resistivity survey. The flow models are also used to simulate the bulk electrical resistivity in the subsurface under varying saturation conditions, as well as the self-potential response using petrophysical relationships and electrokinetic coupling equations.The self-potential survey consists of 512 measurements on the downstream area of the dam, and corroborates known seepage areas on the northwest side of the dam. Two direct-current resistivity profiles, each approximately 2,500 ft (762 m) long, indicate a broad sediment channel under the northwest side of the dam, which may be a significant seepage pathway through the foundation. A focusing of seepage in low-topography areas downstream of the dam is confirmed from the numerical flow simulations, which is also consistent with past observations. Little evidence of seepage is identified from the self-potential data on the southeast side of the dam, also consistent with historical records, though one possible area of focused seepage is identified near the outlet works. Integration of the geophysical surveys, numerical modeling, and observation well data provides a framework for better understanding seepage at the site through a combined hydrogeophysical approach.

  9. 'Hidden messages' emerging from Afrocentric management perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Van den Heuvel

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper aims to examine how 'African management' discourse has emerged in South Africa. Altogether, it has stimulated debates - sometimes in controversial ways - on 'taboo issues', e.g. relating to 'cultural diversity' and 'ethnicity'. The stimulation of such debates within organisations is probably a more valuable contribution than a static, essentialised 'African identity' that it proclaims. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper draws on a qualitative research project conducted in South Africa in 2003-2004. Its relevance lies in gaining in-depth insights into ('non-western' local management discourse. It seeks to contribute to the body of knowledge on political and cultural contexts in which South African organizations operate, and how they impact on local management perspectives, and vice versa. Findings: The research findings make clear how and under what circumstances 'African management' discourse has come about in South Africa, and how it could be interpreted. Implications: 'African management' advocates allegedly attempt to revise dominant management thinking and promote 'humane-ness' and participatory decision-making in South African organisations, in search of a contextualised management approach. Amongst others, it has produced new meanings of 'Africanness' and has opened up space for 'hidden messages', resentments and aspirations to become openly articulated. This throws another light on phenomena such as cultural diversity and ethnicity that usually tend to be 'neutralised'. This may turn out to be far healthier for blooming organisational cultures in South Africa than relentlessly hammering on prescribed 'corporate values'. Originality/Value: This paper informs the reader in detail about the emergence and evolvement of 'African management' discourse in South Africa. It is a unique attempt to develop an interpretative viewpoint on this intriguing phenomenon that offers a potentially valuable contribution in reading

  10. Identifying hidden voice and video streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jieyan; Wu, Dapeng; Nucci, Antonio; Keralapura, Ram; Gao, Lixin

    2009-04-01

    Given the rising popularity of voice and video services over the Internet, accurately identifying voice and video traffic that traverse their networks has become a critical task for Internet service providers (ISPs). As the number of proprietary applications that deliver voice and video services to end users increases over time, the search for the one methodology that can accurately detect such services while being application independent still remains open. This problem becomes even more complicated when voice and video service providers like Skype, Microsoft, and Google bundle their voice and video services with other services like file transfer and chat. For example, a bundled Skype session can contain both voice stream and file transfer stream in the same layer-3/layer-4 flow. In this context, traditional techniques to identify voice and video streams do not work. In this paper, we propose a novel self-learning classifier, called VVS-I , that detects the presence of voice and video streams in flows with minimum manual intervention. Our classifier works in two phases: training phase and detection phase. In the training phase, VVS-I first extracts the relevant features, and subsequently constructs a fingerprint of a flow using the power spectral density (PSD) analysis. In the detection phase, it compares the fingerprint of a flow to the existing fingerprints learned during the training phase, and subsequently classifies the flow. Our classifier is not only capable of detecting voice and video streams that are hidden in different flows, but is also capable of detecting different applications (like Skype, MSN, etc.) that generate these voice/video streams. We show that our classifier can achieve close to 100% detection rate while keeping the false positive rate to less that 1%.

  11. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  12. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  13. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  14. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  15. Non-accidental injury in children in Kuala Lumpur: An urban perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faridah Mohd Nor

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Non-accidental deaths in children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia are not uncommon, and they are often reported for identification of injuries. Five case series in children are presented here with typical injuries of differing ages in child abuse. Where history was partially hidden from the real scenario, involvement of family members was inevitable. The injuries were particularly diversified from a single unprecedented injury to multiple severe injuries, which led to the deaths of children less than 3 years of age. The discussion revolved around the autopsy and ancillary investigations in the context of urban perspectives in Kuala Lumpur area.

  16. Increased taxon sampling reveals thousands of hidden orthologs in flatworms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Gains and losses shape the gene complement of animal lineages and are a fundamental aspect of genomic evolution. Acquiring a comprehensive view of the evolution of gene repertoires is limited by the intrinsic limitations of common sequence similarity searches and available databases. Thus, a subset of the gene complement of an organism consists of hidden orthologs, i.e., those with no apparent homology to sequenced animal lineages—mistakenly considered new genes—but actually representing rapidly evolving orthologs or undetected paralogs. Here, we describe Leapfrog, a simple automated BLAST pipeline that leverages increased taxon sampling to overcome long evolutionary distances and identify putative hidden orthologs in large transcriptomic databases by transitive homology. As a case study, we used 35 transcriptomes of 29 flatworm lineages to recover 3427 putative hidden orthologs, some unidentified by OrthoFinder and HaMStR, two common orthogroup inference algorithms. Unexpectedly, we do not observe a correlation between the number of putative hidden orthologs in a lineage and its “average” evolutionary rate. Hidden orthologs do not show unusual sequence composition biases that might account for systematic errors in sequence similarity searches. Instead, gene duplication with divergence of one paralog and weak positive selection appear to underlie hidden orthology in Platyhelminthes. By using Leapfrog, we identify key centrosome-related genes and homeodomain classes previously reported as absent in free-living flatworms, e.g., planarians. Altogether, our findings demonstrate that hidden orthologs comprise a significant proportion of the gene repertoire in flatworms, qualifying the impact of gene losses and gains in gene complement evolution. PMID:28400424

  17. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  18. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  19. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  20. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  1. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  2. Eye Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... that you could lose your vision. Most eye injuries are preventable. If you play sports or work in certain jobs, you may need protection. The most common type of injury happens when something irritates the ...

  3. Ocular Injuries

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GB

    2015-04-02

    Apr 2, 2015 ... KEYWORDS: Bangers, eye injuries, holidays, Nigeria ... antibiotic and cycloplegic eye drops, antibiotic ointment at night and .... Adeoti C. O, Bello T. O., Ashaye A. O. Blinding ... Can fireworks-related injuries to children during ...

  4. ACL Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... while doing things like skiing, playing soccer or football, and jumping on a trampoline. When you injure ... severity of the injury, age, physical condition, medical history, and other injuries or illnesses. People who are ...

  5. Knee Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Knee Injuries KidsHealth / For Teens / Knee Injuries What's in ... can do to protect them. What's in a Knee? The knee is a joint , actually the largest ...

  6. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  7. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  8. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2011-01-01

    Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  9. [The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsvik, O

    1992-05-30

    An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

  10. Devastating epidemics in recent ages Greek populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsiou, Antonia; Michalaki, Vasiliki; Anagnostopoulou, Helen N

    2017-12-01

    In the recent Greek ages the most devastating epidemics were plague, smallpox, leprosy and cholera. In 1816 plague struck the Ionian and Aegean Islands, mainland Greece, Constantinople and Smyrna. The Venetians ruling the Ionian Islands effectively combated plague in contrast to the Ottomans ruling all other regions. In 1922, plague appeared in Patras refugees who were expelled by the Turks from Smyrna and Asia Minor. Inoculation against smallpox was first performed in Thessaly by the Greek women, and the Greek doctors Emmanouel Timonis (1713, Oxford) and Jakovos Pylarinos (1715, Venice) made relevant scientific publications. The first leper colony opened in Chios Island. In Crete, Spinalonga was transformed into a leper island, which following the Independence War against Turkish occupation and the unification of Crete with Greece in 1913, was classified as an International Leper Hospital. Cholera struck Greece in 1853-1854 brought by the French troops during the Crimean War, and again during the Balkan Wars (1912-13) when the Bulgarian troops brought cholera to northern Greece. Due to successive wars, medical assistance was not always available, so desperate people turned many times to religion through processions in honor of local saints, for their salvation in epidemics.

  11. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  12. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  13. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  14. Modelling the dynamics of nonendemic epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramani, A.; Grammaticos, B.; Satsuma, J.

    2009-01-01

    We present two models for an epidemic where the individuals are infective over a fixed period of time and which never becomes endemic i.e., no infective individuals remain after the epidemic has run its course. The first model is based on a delay-difference scheme. We show that, as a function of the delay (which corresponds to the period of infectiveness) the percentage of non-infected population varies over a wide range. We present also a variant of our model where the recovery rate follows a Poisson law and obtain a discrete version of the SIR model. We estimate the percentage of non-infected population in the two models, show that they lead to almost the same values and present an explanation of this fact. The second model is based on the assumption that the infection is spread by carriers. Under the hypothesis that the carriers are relatively long-lived, and that the number of the infected ones is a relatively small fraction of the total population of potential carriers, we show that the model reduces to the same version of the discrete SIR obtained by our first model.

  15. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  16. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  17. Colliding Epidemics and the Rise of Cryptococcosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina C. Chang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discovered more than 100 years ago as a human pathogen, the Cryptococcus neoformans–Cryptococcus gattii (C. neoformans–C. gattii complex has seen a large global resurgence in its association with clinical disease in the last 30 years. First isolated in fermenting peach juice, and identified as a human pathogen in 1894 in a patient with bone lesions, this environmental pathogen has now found niches in soil, trees, birds, and domestic pets. Cryptococcosis is well recognized as an opportunistic infection and was first noted to be associated with reticuloendothelial cancers in the 1950s. Since then, advances in transplant immunology, medical science and surgical techniques have led to increasing numbers of solid organ transplantations (SOT and hematological stem cell transplantations being performed, and the use of biological immunotherapeutics in increasingly high-risk and older individuals, have contributed to the further rise in cryptococcosis. Globally, however, the major driver for revivification of cryptococcosis is undoubtedly the HIV epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where access to care and antiretroviral therapy remains limited and advanced immunodeficiency, poverty and malnutrition remains the norm. As a zoonotic disease, environmental outbreaks of both human and animal cryptococcosis have been reported, possibly driven by climate change. This is best exemplified by the resurgence of C. gattii infection in Vancouver Island, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States since 1999. Here we describe how the colliding epidemics of HIV, transplantation and immunologics, climate change and migration have contributed to the rise of cryptococcosis.

  18. Hamstring Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamstring injury Overview A hamstring injury occurs when you strain or pull one of your hamstring muscles — the group of three muscles that run along ... You may be more likely to get a hamstring injury if you play soccer, basketball, football, tennis ...

  19. Orienteering injuries

    OpenAIRE

    Folan, Jean M.

    1982-01-01

    At the Irish National Orienteering Championships in 1981 a survey of the injuries occurring over the two days of competition was carried out. Of 285 individual competitors there was a percentage injury rate of 5.26%. The article discusses the injuries and aspects of safety in orienteering.

  20. Infinite hidden conditional random fields for human behavior analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bousmalis, Konstantinos; Zafeiriou, Stefanos; Morency, Louis-Philippe; Pantic, Maja

    2013-01-01

    Hidden conditional random fields (HCRFs) are discriminative latent variable models that have been shown to successfully learn the hidden structure of a given classification problem (provided an appropriate validation of the number of hidden states). In this brief, we present the infinite HCRF (iHCRF), which is a nonparametric model based on hierarchical Dirichlet processes and is capable of automatically learning the optimal number of hidden states for a classification task. We show how we learn the model hyperparameters with an effective Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling technique, and we explain the process that underlines our iHCRF model with the Restaurant Franchise Rating Agencies analogy. We show that the iHCRF is able to converge to a correct number of represented hidden states, and outperforms the best finite HCRFs--chosen via cross-validation--for the difficult tasks of recognizing instances of agreement, disagreement, and pain. Moreover, the iHCRF manages to achieve this performance in significantly less total training, validation, and testing time.

  1. Hidden Statistics Approach to Quantum Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Michail

    2010-01-01

    Recent advances in quantum information theory have inspired an explosion of interest in new quantum algorithms for solving hard computational (quantum and non-quantum) problems. The basic principle of quantum computation is that the quantum properties can be used to represent structure data, and that quantum mechanisms can be devised and built to perform operations with this data. Three basic non-classical properties of quantum mechanics superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability were main reasons for optimism about capabilities of quantum computers that promised simultaneous processing of large massifs of highly correlated data. Unfortunately, these advantages of quantum mechanics came with a high price. One major problem is keeping the components of the computer in a coherent state, as the slightest interaction with the external world would cause the system to decohere. That is why the hardware implementation of a quantum computer is still unsolved. The basic idea of this work is to create a new kind of dynamical system that would preserve the main three properties of quantum physics superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. In other words, such a system would reinforce the advantages and minimize limitations of both quantum and classical aspects. Based upon a concept of hidden statistics, a new kind of dynamical system for simulation of Schroedinger equation is proposed. The system represents a modified Madelung version of Schroedinger equation. It preserves superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. Such an optimal combination of characteristics is a perfect match for simulating quantum systems. The model includes a transitional component of quantum potential (that has been overlooked in previous treatment of the Madelung equation). The role of the

  2. Hidden beauty baryon states in the local hidden gauge approach with heavy quark spin symmetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, C.W.; Oset, E. [Centro Mixto Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, Institutos de Investigacion de Paterna, Departamento de Fisica Teorica and IFIC, Valencia (Spain)

    2013-11-15

    Using a coupled-channel unitary approach, combining the heavy quark spin symmetry and the dynamics of the local hidden gauge, we investigate the meson-baryon interaction with hidden beauty and obtain several new states of N around 11 GeV. We consider the basis of states {eta}{sub b} N, {Upsilon};N, B {Lambda}{sub b}, B {Sigma}{sub b}, B{sup *}{Lambda}{sub b}, B{sup *}{Sigma}{sub b}, B{sup *}{Sigma}{sub b}{sup *} and find four basic bound states which correspond to B {Sigma}{sub b}, B {Sigma}{sub b}{sup *}, B{sup *}{Sigma}{sub b} and B{sup *}{Sigma}{sub b}{sup *}, decaying mostly into {eta}{sub b} N and {Upsilon}N and with a binding energy about 50-130 MeV with respect to the thresholds of the corresponding channel. All of them have isospin I = 1/2, and we find no bound states or resonances in I = 3/2. The B {Sigma}{sub b} state appears in J = 1/2, the B {Sigma}{sub b}{sup *} in J = 3/2, the B{sup *}{Sigma}{sub b} appears nearly degenerate in J = 1/2, 3/2 and the B{sup *}{Sigma}{sub b}{sup *} appears nearly degenerate in J = 1/2, 3/2, 5/2. These states have a width from 2-110 MeV, with conservative estimates of uncertainties, except for the one in J = 5/2 which has zero width since it cannot decay into any of the states of the basis chosen. We make generous estimates of the uncertainties and find that within very large margins these states appear bound. (orig.)

  3. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Masato; Kawai, Shinsuke; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-01-01

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5 minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  4. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, Masato; Kawai, Shinsuke; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-02-01

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5¯ minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  5. Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-09-01

    Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  6. Applications of hidden symmetries to black hole physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frolov, Valeri

    2011-01-01

    This work is a brief review of applications of hidden symmetries to black hole physics. Symmetry is one of the most important concepts of the science. In physics and mathematics the symmetry allows one to simplify a problem, and often to make it solvable. According to the Noether theorem symmetries are responsible for conservation laws. Besides evident (explicit) spacetime symmetries, responsible for conservation of energy, momentum, and angular momentum of a system, there also exist what is called hidden symmetries, which are connected with higher order in momentum integrals of motion. A remarkable fact is that black holes in four and higher dimensions always possess a set ('tower') of explicit and hidden symmetries which make the equations of motion of particles and light completely integrable. The paper gives a general review of the recently obtained results. The main focus is on understanding why at all black holes have something (symmetry) to hide.

  7. Discovering Hidden Controlling Parameters using Data Analytics and Dimensional Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rosario, Zachary; Lee, Minyong; Iaccarino, Gianluca

    2017-11-01

    Dimensional Analysis is a powerful tool, one which takes a priori information and produces important simplifications. However, if this a priori information - the list of relevant parameters - is missing a relevant quantity, then the conclusions from Dimensional Analysis will be incorrect. In this work, we present novel conclusions in Dimensional Analysis, which provide a means to detect this failure mode of missing or hidden parameters. These results are based on a restated form of the Buckingham Pi theorem that reveals a ridge function structure underlying all dimensionless physical laws. We leverage this structure by constructing a hypothesis test based on sufficient dimension reduction, allowing for an experimental data-driven detection of hidden parameters. Both theory and examples will be presented, using classical turbulent pipe flow as the working example. Keywords: experimental techniques, dimensional analysis, lurking variables, hidden parameters, buckingham pi, data analysis. First author supported by the NSF GRFP under Grant Number DGE-114747.

  8. Supersymmetry, p-brane duality, and hidden spacetime dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bars, I.

    1996-01-01

    A global superalgebra with 32 supercharges and all possible central extensions is studied in order to extract some general properties of duality and hidden dimensions in a theory that treats p-branes democratically. The maximal number of dimensions is 12, with signature (10,2), containing one space and one time dimension that are hidden from the point of view of perturbative ten-dimensional string theory or its compactifications. When the theory is compactified on R d-1,1 circle-times T c+1,1 with d+c+2=12, there are isometry groups that relate to the hidden dimensions as well as to duality. Their combined intersecting classification schemes provide some properties of nonperturbative states and their couplings. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  9. The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

    2014-01-01

    To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

  10. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  11. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  12. [The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, M D

    1992-01-01

    The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

  13. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  14. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  15. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  16. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2018-01-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

  17. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  18. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

  19. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  20. Analysing the hidden curriculum: use of a cultural web.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossop, Liz; Dennick, Reg; Hammond, Richard; Robbé, Iain

    2013-02-01

    Major influences on learning about medical professionalism come from the hidden curriculum. These influences can contribute positively or negatively towards the professional enculturation of clinical students. The fact that there is no validated method for identifying the components of the hidden curriculum poses problems for educators considering professionalism. The aim of this study was to analyse whether a cultural web, adapted from a business context, might assist in the identification of elements of the hidden curriculum at a UK veterinary school. A qualitative approach was used. Seven focus groups consisting of three staff groups and four student groups were organised. Questioning was framed using the cultural web, which is a model used by business owners to assess their environment and consider how it affects their employees and customers. The focus group discussions were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically using a combination of a priori and emergent themes. The cultural web identified elements of the hidden curriculum for both students and staff. These included: core assumptions; routines; rituals; control systems; organisational factors; power structures, and symbols. Discussions occurred about how and where these issues may affect students' professional identity development. The cultural web framework functioned well to help participants identify elements of the hidden curriculum. These aspects aligned broadly with previously described factors such as role models and institutional slang. The influence of these issues on a student's development of a professional identity requires discussion amongst faculty staff, and could be used to develop learning opportunities for students. The framework is promising for the analysis of the hidden curriculum and could be developed as an instrument for implementation in other clinical teaching environments. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2013.

  1. QCD sum rule study of hidden-charm pentaquarks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Hua-Xing; Cui, Er-Liang [Beihang University, School of Physics and Beijing Key Laboratory of Advanced Nuclear Materials and Physics, Beijing (China); Chen, Wei; Steele, T.G. [University of Saskatchewan, Department of Physics and Engineering Physics, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan (Canada); Liu, Xiang [Lanzhou University, School of Physical Science and Technology, Lanzhou (China); Lanzhou University and Institute of Modern Physics of CAS, Research Center for Hadron and CSR Physics, Lanzhou (China); Zhu, Shi-Lin [Peking University, School of Physics and State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Physics and Technology, Beijing (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Quantum Matter, Beijing (China); Peking University, Center of High Energy Physics, Beijing (China)

    2016-10-15

    We study the mass spectra of hidden-charm pentaquarks having spin J = (1)/(2)/(3)/(2)/(5)/(2) and quark contents uudc anti c. We systematically construct all the relevant local hidden-charm pentaquark currents, and we select some of them to perform QCD sum rule analyses. We find that the P{sub c}(4380) and P{sub c}(4450) can be identified as hidden-charm pentaquark states composed of an anti-charmed meson and a charmed baryon. Besides them, we also find (a) the lowest-lying hidden-charm pentaquark state of J{sup P} = 1/2{sup -} has the mass 4.33{sup +0.17}{sub -0.13} GeV, while the one of J{sup P} = 1/2{sup +} is significantly higher, that is, around 4.7-4.9 GeV; (b) the lowest-lying hidden-charm pentaquark state of J{sup P} = 3/2{sup -} has the mass 4.37{sup +0.18}{sub -0.13} GeV, consistent with the P{sub c}(4380) of J{sup P} = 3/2{sup -}, while the one of J{sup P} = 3/2{sup +} is also significantly higher, that is, above 4.6 GeV; (c) the hidden-charm pentaquark state of J{sup P} = 5/2{sup -} has a mass around 4.5-4.6 GeV, slightly larger than the P{sub c}(4450) of J{sup P} = 5/2{sup +}. (orig.)

  2. Spinal Cord Injury 101

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Cord Injury What is a Spinal Cord Injury Levels of Injury and What They Mean Animated Spinal ... Cord Injury What is a Spinal Cord Injury Levels of Injury and What They Mean Animated Spinal ...

  3. Spinal Cord Injury 101

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Injury Chart Spinal Cord Injury Facts and Figures Care and Treatment After SCI Spinal Cord Injury Rehabilitation ... Injury Chart Spinal Cord Injury Facts and Figures Care and Treatment After SCI Spinal Cord Injury Rehabilitation ...

  4. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-08

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  5. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-01

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  6. Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

    2018-04-01

    Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

  7. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

  8. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  9. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

  10. Detecting Hidden Hierarchy of Non Hierarchical Terrorist Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Memon, Nasrullah

    measures (and combinations of them) to identify key players (important nodes) in terrorist networks. Our recently introduced techniques and algorithms (which are also implemented in the investigative data mining toolkit known as iMiner) will be particularly useful for law enforcement agencies that need...... to analyze terrorist networks and prioritize their targets. Applying recently introduced mathematical methods for constructing the hidden hierarchy of "nonhierarchical" terrorist networks; we present case studies of the terrorist attacks occurred / planned in the past, in order to identify hidden hierarchy...

  11. Low-intensity interference effects and hidden-variable theories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buonomano, V [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Brazil). Inst. de Matematica

    1978-05-11

    The double-slit interference experiment and other similar experiments in the low-intensity limit (that is, one photon in the apparatus at a time) are examined in the spirit of Bell's work from the point of view of hidden-variable theories. It is found that there exists a class of hidden-variable theories which disagrees with quantum mechanics for a certain type of interference experiment. A manufactured conceptualization of this class, which is a particle view of interference, is described. An experiment, which appears to be feasible, is proposed to examine this disagreement.

  12. Application of Hidden Markov Models in Biomolecular Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Saurabh; Shamsi, Zahra; Moffett, Alexander S; Selvam, Balaji; Shukla, Diwakar

    2017-01-01

    Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide a framework to analyze large trajectories of biomolecular simulation datasets. HMMs decompose the conformational space of a biological molecule into finite number of states that interconvert among each other with certain rates. HMMs simplify long timescale trajectories for human comprehension, and allow comparison of simulations with experimental data. In this chapter, we provide an overview of building HMMs for analyzing bimolecular simulation datasets. We demonstrate the procedure for building a Hidden Markov model for Met-enkephalin peptide simulation dataset and compare the timescales of the process.

  13. Enhanced axion-photon coupling in GUT with hidden photon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daido, Ryuji; Takahashi, Fuminobu; Yokozaki, Norimi

    2018-05-01

    We show that the axion coupling to photons can be enhanced in simple models with a single Peccei-Quinn field, if the gauge coupling unification is realized by a large kinetic mixing χ = O (0.1) between hypercharge and unbroken hidden U(1)H. The key observation is that the U(1)H gauge coupling should be rather strong to induce such large kinetic mixing, leading to enhanced contributions of hidden matter fields to the electromagnetic anomaly. We find that the axion-photon coupling is enhanced by about a factor of 10-100 with respect to the GUT-axion models with E / N = 8 / 3.

  14. Hidden Neural Networks: A Framework for HMM/NN Hybrids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Søren Kamaric; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents a general framework for hybrids of hidden Markov models (HMM) and neural networks (NN). In the new framework called hidden neural networks (HNN) the usual HMM probability parameters are replaced by neural network outputs. To ensure a probabilistic interpretation the HNN is nor...... HMMs on TIMIT continuous speech recognition benchmarks. On the task of recognizing five broad phoneme classes an accuracy of 84% is obtained compared to 76% for a standard HMM. Additionally, we report a preliminary result of 69% accuracy on the TIMIT 39 phoneme task...

  15. Search for hidden Higgs decay in ATLAS detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabrielli, A.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a brief overview of the search for the Higgs boson in Hidden Valley models is given. Hidden Valley models predict Higgs decays to neutral particles, which can be also long lived with decay paths comparable to the LHC detectors dimensions. Decay final states consist of collimated leptons (Lepton Jets). Results are presented of a search for Higgs decays to long lived particles in the ATLAS detector at the LHC, based on 1.92 fb −1 data collected during 2011 at a 7TeV center-of-mass energy.

  16. Detecting Faults By Use Of Hidden Markov Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Padhraic J.

    1995-01-01

    Frequency of false alarms reduced. Faults in complicated dynamic system (e.g., antenna-aiming system, telecommunication network, or human heart) detected automatically by method of automated, continuous monitoring. Obtains time-series data by sampling multiple sensor outputs at discrete intervals of t and processes data via algorithm determining whether system in normal or faulty state. Algorithm implements, among other things, hidden first-order temporal Markov model of states of system. Mathematical model of dynamics of system not needed. Present method is "prior" method mentioned in "Improved Hidden-Markov-Model Method of Detecting Faults" (NPO-18982).

  17. From the solar system fo hidden cosmic structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benes, K

    1987-01-01

    The development of experimental astrophysics showed that in the evolution of planets, natural processes of a common nature take place. They include, e.g., radiogenic heat, the production of magmas, volcanic activity, degassing, etc. The solar system is a cosmic formation in an advanced stage of development and it is a realistic assumption that in the Galaxy other hidden planetary systems in various stages of development exist. The views on the possibility of the origination of life in other systems differ; life, however, is seen as a hidden property of cosmic matter. (M.D.).

  18. Epidemics and dimensionality in hierarchical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Da-Fang; Hui, P. M.; Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Bo

    2005-07-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveal that for H>1, global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily of the individuals forming a social circle. For H=1, a transition from global to local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses).

  19. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  20. Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicksion, Mark; Lagorio, Cecilia; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2011-03-01

    We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (w =wc) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

  1. Epidemic Dynamics in Open Quantum Spin Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Espigares, Carlos; Marcuzzi, Matteo; Gutiérrez, Ricardo; Lesanovsky, Igor

    2017-10-01

    We explore the nonequilibrium evolution and stationary states of an open many-body system that displays epidemic spreading dynamics in a classical and a quantum regime. Our study is motivated by recent experiments conducted in strongly interacting gases of highly excited Rydberg atoms where the facilitated excitation of Rydberg states competes with radiative decay. These systems approximately implement open quantum versions of models for population dynamics or disease spreading where species can be in a healthy, infected or immune state. We show that in a two-dimensional lattice, depending on the dominance of either classical or quantum effects, the system may display a different kind of nonequilibrium phase transition. We moreover discuss the observability of our findings in laser driven Rydberg gases with particular focus on the role of long-range interactions.

  2. Multilingual event extraction for epidemic detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Gaël; Brixtel, Romain; Doucet, Antoine; Lucas, Nadine

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a multilingual news surveillance system applied to tele-epidemiology. It has been shown that multilingual approaches improve timeliness in detection of epidemic events across the globe, eliminating the wait for local news to be translated into major languages. We present here a system to extract epidemic events in potentially any language, provided a Wikipedia seed for common disease names exists. The Daniel system presented herein relies on properties that are common to news writing (the journalistic genre), the most useful being repetition and saliency. Wikipedia is used to screen common disease names to be matched with repeated characters strings. Language variations, such as declensions, are handled by processing text at the character-level, rather than at the word level. This additionally makes it possible to handle various writing systems in a similar fashion. As no multilingual ground truth existed to evaluate the Daniel system, we built a multilingual corpus from the Web, and collected annotations from native speakers of Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian, with no connection or interest in the Daniel system. This data set is available online freely, and can be used for the evaluation of other event extraction systems. Experiments for 5 languages out of 17 tested are detailed in this paper: Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian. The Daniel system achieves an average F-measure of 82% in these 5 languages. It reaches 87% on BEcorpus, the state-of-the-art corpus in English, slightly below top-performing systems, which are tailored with numerous language-specific resources. The consistent performance of Daniel on multiple languages is an important contribution to the reactivity and the coverage of epidemiological event detection systems. Most event extraction systems rely on extensive resources that are language-specific. While their sophistication induces excellent results (over 90% precision and recall), it restricts their

  3. Genealogical evidence for epidemics of selfish genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingvarsson, Par K; Taylor, Douglas R

    2002-08-20

    Some genetic elements spread infectiously in populations by increasing their rate of genetic transmission at the expense of other genes in the genome. These so-called selfish genetic elements comprise a substantial portion of eukaryotic genomes and have long been viewed as a potent evolutionary force. Despite this view, little is known about the evolutionary history of selfish genetic elements in natural populations, or their genetic effects on other portions of the genome. Here we use nuclear and chloroplast gene genealogies in two species of Silene to show the historical pattern of selection on a well known selfish genetic element, cytoplasmic male sterility. We provide evidence that evolution of cytoplasmic male sterility has been characterized by frequent turnovers of mutations in natural populations, thus supporting an epidemic model for the evolution of selfish genes, where new mutations repeatedly arise and rapidly sweep through populations.

  4. Open data mining for Taiwan's dengue epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, ChienHsing; Kao, Shu-Chen; Shih, Chia-Hung; Kan, Meng-Hsuan

    2018-07-01

    By using a quantitative approach, this study examines the applicability of data mining technique to discover knowledge from open data related to Taiwan's dengue epidemic. We compare results when Google trend data are included or excluded. Data sources are government open data, climate data, and Google trend data. Research findings from analysis of 70,914 cases are obtained. Location and time (month) in open data show the highest classification power followed by climate variables (temperature and humidity), whereas gender and age show the lowest values. Both prediction accuracy and simplicity decrease when Google trends are considered (respectively 0.94 and 0.37, compared to 0.96 and 0.46). The article demonstrates the value of open data mining in the context of public health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

  6. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  7. Fractional virus epidemic model on financial networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balci Mehmet Ali

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present an epidemic model that characterizes the behavior of a financial network of globally operating stock markets. Since the long time series have a global memory effect, we represent our model by using the fractional calculus. This model operates on a network, where vertices are the stock markets and edges are constructed by the correlation distances. Thereafter, we find an analytical solution to commensurate system and use the well-known differential transform method to obtain the solution of incommensurate system of fractional differential equations. Our findings are confirmed and complemented by the data set of the relevant stock markets between 2006 and 2016. Rather than the hypothetical values, we use the Hurst Exponent of each time series to approximate the fraction size and graph theoretical concepts to obtain the variables.

  8. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  9. Information content of household-stratified epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. Kinyanjui

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs.

  10. Information content of household-stratified epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinyanjui, T M; Pellis, L; House, T

    2016-09-01

    Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Heroin epidemics, treatment and ODE modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Emma; Comiskey, Catherine

    2007-07-01

    The UN [United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC): World Drug Report, 2005, vol. 1: Analysis. UNODC, 2005.], EU [European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA): Annual Report, 2005.http://annualreport.emcdda.eu.int/en/home-en.html.] and WHO [World Health Organisation (WHO): Biregional Strategy for Harm Reduction, 2005-2009. HIV and Injecting Drug Use. WHO, 2005.] have consistently highlighted in recent years the ongoing and persistent nature of opiate and particularly heroin use on a global scale. While this is a global phenomenon, authors have emphasised the significant impact such an epidemic has on individual lives and on society. National prevalence studies have indicated the scale of the problem, but the drug-using career, typically consisting of initiation, habitual use, a treatment-relapse cycle and eventual recovery, is not well understood. This paper presents one of the first ODE models of opiate addiction, based on the principles of mathematical epidemiology. The aim of this model is to identify parameters of interest for further study, with a view to informing and assisting policy-makers in targeting prevention and treatment resources for maximum effectiveness. An epidemic threshold value, R(0), is proposed for the drug-using career. Sensitivity analysis is performed on R(0) and it is then used to examine the stability of the system. A condition under which a backward bifurcation may exist is found, as are conditions that permit the existence of one or more endemic equilibria. A key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.

  12. Hidden Pair of Supermassive Black Holes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2015-08-01

    Could a pair of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) be lurking at the center of the galaxy Mrk 231? A recent study finds that this may be the case and the unique spectrum of this galaxy could be the key to discovering more hidden binary SMBH systems.Where Are the Binary Supermassive Black Holes?Its believed that most, if not all, galaxies have an SMBH at their centers. As two galaxies merge, the two SMBHs should evolve into a closely-bound binary system before they eventually merge. Given the abundance of galaxy mergers, we would expect to see the kinematic and visual signatures of these binary SMBHs among observed active galactic nuclei yet such evidence for sub-parsec binary SMBH systems remains scarce and ambiguous. This has led researchers to wonder: is there another way that we might detect these elusive systems?A collaboration led by Chang-Shuo Yan (National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences) thinks that there is. The group suggests that these systems might have distinct signatures in their optical-to-UV spectra, and they identify a system that might be just such a candidate: Mrk 231.A Binary CandidateProposed model of Mrk 231. Two supermassive black holes, each with their own mini-disk, orbit each other in the center of a circumbinary disk. The secondary black hole has cleared gap in the circumbinary disk as a result of its orbit around the primary black hole. [Yan et al. 2015]Mrk 231 is a galaxy with a disturbed morphology and tidal tails strong clues that it might be in the final stages of a galactic merger. In addition to these signs, Mrk 231 also has an unusual spectrum for a quasar: its continuum emission displays an unexpected drop in the near-UV band.Yan and her collaborators propose that the odd behavior of Mrk 231s spectrum can be explained if the center of the galaxy houses a pair of SMBHs each with its own mini accretion disk surrounded by a circumbinary accretion disk. As the secondary SMBH orbits the primary SMBH (with a

  13. Need for Injury Prevention Education In Medical School Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaca, Federico E

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Injury is the leading cause of death and disability among the U.S. population aged 1 to 44 years. In 2006 more than 179,000 fatalities were attributed to injury. Despite increasing awareness of the global epidemic of injury and violence, a considerable gap remains between advances in injury-prevention research and prevention knowledge that is taught to medical students. This article discusses the growing need for U.S medical schools to train future physicians in the fundamentals of injury prevention and control. Teaching medical students to implement injury prevention in their future practice should help reduce injury morbidity and mortality. Deliberate efforts should be made to integrate injury-prevention education into existing curriculum. Key resources are available to do this. Emergency physicians can be essential advocates in establishing injury prevention training because of their clinical expertise in treating injury. Increasing the number of physicians with injury- and violence- prevention knowledge and skills is ultimately an important strategy to reduce the national and global burden of injury. [West J Emerg Med. 2010; 11(1:40-43].

  14. Photoacoustic imaging of hidden dental caries by using a fiber-based probing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koyama, Takuya; Kakino, Satoko; Matsuura, Yuji

    2017-04-01

    Photoacoustic method to detect hidden dental caries is proposed. It was found that high frequency ultrasonic waves are generated from hidden carious part when radiating laser light to occlusal surface of model tooth. By making a map of intensity of these high frequency components, photoacoustic images of hidden caries were successfully obtained. A photoacoustic imaging system using a bundle of hollow optical fiber was fabricated for using clinical application, and clear photoacoustic image of hidden caries was also obtained by this system.

  15. Low-scale gravity mediation in warped extra dimension and collider phenomenology on hidden sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, H.; Okada, N.; Yamashita, T.

    2007-01-01

    We propose a new scenario of gravity-mediated supersymmetry breaking (gravity mediation) in a supersymmetric Randall-Sundrum model, where the gravity mediation takes place at a low scale due to the warped metric. We investigate collider phenomenology involving the hidden sector field, and find a possibility that the hidden sector field can be produced at the LHC and the ILC. The hidden sector may no longer be hidden. (author)

  16. Paragliding injuries.

    OpenAIRE

    Krüger-Franke, M; Siebert, C H; Pförringer, W

    1991-01-01

    Regulations controlling the sport of paragliding were issued in April 1987 by the German Department of Transportation. The growing popularity of this sport has led to a steady increase in the number of associated injuries. This study presents the incidence, localization and degree of injuries associated with paragliding documented in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The 283 injuries suffered by 218 paragliders were documented in the period 1987-1989: 181 occurred during landing, 28 during st...

  17. Paragliding injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger-Franke, M; Siebert, C H; Pförringer, W

    1991-06-01

    Regulations controlling the sport of paragliding were issued in April 1987 by the German Department of Transportation. The growing popularity of this sport has led to a steady increase in the number of associated injuries. This study presents the incidence, localization and degree of injuries associated with paragliding documented in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The 283 injuries suffered by 218 paragliders were documented in the period 1987-1989: 181 occurred during landing, 28 during starting procedures and nine during flight. The mean patient age was 29.6 years. There were 34.9% spinal injuries, 13.4% upper extremity injuries and 41.3% lower limb injuries. Over half of these injuries were treated surgically and in 54 instances permanent disability remained. In paragliding the lower extremities are at greatest risk of injury during landing. Proper equipment, especially sturdy footwear, exact training in landing techniques as well as improved instruction in procedures during aborted or crash landings is required to reduce the frequency of these injuries.

  18. ACADEMIC MOBBING: HIDDEN HEALTH HAZARD AT WORKPLACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KHOO SB

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Academic mobbing is a non-violent, sophisticated, ‘ganging up’ behaviour adopted by academicians to “wear and tear” a colleague down emotionally through unjustified accusation, humiliation, general harassment and emotional abuse. These are directed at the target under a veil of lies and justifications so that they are “hidden” to others and difficult to prove. Bullies use mobbing activities to hide their own weaknesses and incompetence. Targets selected are often intelligent, innovative high achievers, with good integrity and principles. Mobbing activities appear trivial and innocuous on its own but the frequency and pattern of their occurrence over long period of time indicates an aggressive manipulation to “eliminate” the target. Mobbing activities typically progress through five stereotypical phases that begins with an unsolved minor conflict between two workers and ultimately escalates into a senseless mobbing whereby the target is stigmatized and victimized to justify the behaviours of the bullies. The result is always physical, mental, social distress or illness and, most often, expulsion of target from the workplace. Organizations are subjected to great financial loss, loss of key workers and a tarnished public image and reputation. Public awareness, education, effective counselling, establishment of anti-bullying policies and legislations at all levels are necessary to curb academic mobbing. General practitioners (GPs play an important role in supporting patients subjected to mental and physical health injury caused by workplace bullying and mobbing.

  19. On the hidden maxwell superalgebra underlying D = 4 supergravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penafiel, D.M. [Departamento de Fisica, Universidad de Concepcion (Chile); DISAT, Politecnico di Torino (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Sezione di Torino (Italy); Ravera, L. [DISAT, Politecnico di Torino (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Sezione di Torino (Italy)

    2017-09-15

    In this work, we expand the hidden AdS-Lorentz superalgebra underlying D = 4 supergravity, reaching a (hidden) Maxwell superalgebra. The latter can be viewed as an extension involving cosmological constant of the superalgebra underlying D = 4 supergravity in flat spacetime. We write the Maurer-Cartan equations in this context and we find some interesting extensions of the antisymmetric 3-form A{sup (3)} appearing in the Free Differential Algebra in Minkowski space. The structure of Free Differential Algebras is obtained by considering the zero curvature equations. We write the parametrization of A{sup (3)} in terms of 1-forms and we rend the topological features of its extensions manifest. We interestingly find out that the structure of these extensions, and consequently the structure of the corresponding boundary contribution dA{sup (3)}, strongly depends on the form of the extra fermionic generator appearing in the hidden Maxwell superalgebra. The model we develop in this work is defined in an enlarged superspace with respect to the ordinary one, and the extra bosonic and fermionic 1-forms required for the closure of the hidden Maxwell superalgebra must be considered as physical fields in this enlarged superspace. (copyright 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  20. Generalized inequalities for quantum correlations with hidden variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinduska, M.

    1991-01-01

    Renowned inequalities for quantum correlations are generalized for the case when quantum system cannot be described with an absolute independent measure of the probability. Such a formulation appears to be suitable for the formulation of the hidden variables theory in terms of non-Euclidean geometry. 10 refs

  1. Hidden conic quadratic representation of some nonconvex quadratic optimization problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ben-Tal, A.; den Hertog, D.

    The problem of minimizing a quadratic objective function subject to one or two quadratic constraints is known to have a hidden convexity property, even when the quadratic forms are indefinite. The equivalent convex problem is a semidefinite one, and the equivalence is based on the celebrated

  2. Measurement problem and local hidden variables with entangled photons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muchowski Eugen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available It is shown that there is no remote action with polarization measurements of photons in singlet state. A model is presented introducing a hidden parameter which determines the polarizer output. This model is able to explain the polarization measurement results with entangled photons. It is not ruled out by Bell’s Theorem.

  3. The incompatibility between local hidden variable theories and the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    I discuss in detail the result that the Bell's inequalities derived in the context of local hidden variable theories for discrete quantized observables can be satisfied only if a fundamental conservation law is violated on the average. This result shows that such theories are physically nonviable, and makes the demarcating criteria ...

  4. A novel design of hidden web crawler using ontology

    OpenAIRE

    Manvi; Bhatia, Komal Kumar; Dixit, Ashutosh

    2015-01-01

    Deep Web is content hidden behind HTML forms. Since it represents a large portion of the structured, unstructured and dynamic data on the Web, accessing Deep-Web content has been a long challenge for the database community. This paper describes a crawler for accessing Deep-Web using Ontologies. Performance evaluation of the proposed work showed that this new approach has promising results.

  5. Hidden symmetries of the Principal Chiral Model unveiled

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devchand, C.; Schiff, J.

    1996-12-01

    By relating the two-dimensional U(N) Principal Chiral Model to a Simple linear system we obtain a free-field parametrization of solutions. Obvious symmetry transformations on the free-field data give symmetries of the model. In this way all known 'hidden symmetries' and Baecklund transformations, as well as a host of new symmetries, arise. (author). 21 refs

  6. A hidden bias in a common calorimeter calibration scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lincoln, Don; Morrow, Greg; Kasper, Peter

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, a common calorimeter calibration scheme is explored and a hidden bias found. Since this bias mimics a non-linearity in response in the calorimeter, it must be understood and removed from the calibration before true non-linearities are investigated. The effect and its removal are explored and understood through straightforward calculus and algebra. ((orig.))

  7. Exposing the Hidden-Web Induced by Ajax

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mesbah, A.; Van Deursen, A.

    2008-01-01

    AJAX is a very promising approach for improving rich interactivity and responsiveness of web applications. At the same time, AJAX techniques increase the totality of the hidden web by shattering the metaphor of a web ‘page’ upon which general search engines are based. This paper describes a

  8. Crisis Entrepreneurs and Hidden Crises : Illustrative Examples of Interactional

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prof. Cees van Woerkum; dr. Annette Klarenbeek

    2012-01-01

    We examine the ways in which a hidden crisis can be exposed from a communication point of view. In which way can organisations create general awareness of a crisis and try to understand the dynamic nature of interactions? With the help of discourse analysis, we have examined the interactional

  9. Hidden symmetry of the quantum Calogero-Moser system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuzentsov, Vadim b

    1996-01-01

    The hidden symmetry of the quantum Calogero-Moser system with an inverse-square potential is algebraically demonstrated making use of Dunkl's operators. We find the underlying algebra explaining the super-integrability phenomenon for this system. Applications to related multi-variable Bessel...... functions are also discussed....

  10. Duality and hidden symmetries in interacting particle systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giardinà, C.; Kurchan, J.; Redig, F.H.J.; Vafayi, K.

    2009-01-01

    In the context of Markov processes, both in discrete and continuous setting, we show a general relation between duality functions and symmetries of the generator. If the generator can be written in the form of a Hamiltonian of a quantum spin system, then the "hidden" symmetries are easily derived.

  11. A Constraint Model for Constrained Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Henning; Have, Christian Theil; Lassen, Ole Torp

    2009-01-01

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we extend HMMs with constraints and show how the familiar Viterbi algorithm can be generalized, based on constraint solving ...

  12. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  13. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 126; Issue 1. Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm for prediction of maximum and minimum temperature over Indian Himalaya. J C Joshi Tankeshwar Kumar Sunita Srivastava Divya Sachdeva. Volume 126 Issue 1 February 2017 ...

  14. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...

  15. Light hidden-sector U(1)s in string compactifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodsell, Mark; Ringwald, Andreas

    2010-02-15

    We review the case for light U(1) gauge bosons in the hidden-sector of heterotic and type II string compactifications, present estimates of the size of their kinetic mixing with the visible-sector hypercharge U(1), and discuss their possibly very interesting phenomenological consequences in particle physics and cosmology. (orig.)

  16. Book Review: "Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction using R. by Walter Zucchini and Iain L. MacDonald. Chapman & Hall (CRC Press), 2009. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v10i1.61717 · AJOL African Journals Online.

  17. TeraHertz imaging of hidden paint layers on canvas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adam, A.J.L.; Planken, P.C.M.; Meloni, S.; Dik, J.

    2009-01-01

    We show terahertz reflection images of hidden paint layers in a painting on canvas and compare the results with X-ray Radiography and Infrared Reflectography. Our terahertz measurements show strong reflections from both the canvas/paint interface and from the raw umber/lead white interface,

  18. K­MEANS CLUSTERING FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perrone, M.P.; Connell, S.D.

    2004-01-01

    An unsupervised k­means clustering algorithm for hidden Markov models is described and applied to the task of generating subclass models for individual handwritten character classes. The algorithm is compared to a related clustering method and shown to give a relative change in the error rate of as

  19. EVALUASI HIDDEN CURRICULUM DI SMP NEGERI BOJA, KABUPATEN KENDAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neni Lestari

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the implementation and impact of Hidden Curriculum, as well as the determinant factors of success and sustainability in SMPN 2 Boja Kendal. This study was an evaluative research using qualitative approach. The data collected by using observation, interviews, and documentation. Data analyzed by collecting and selecting to be deduce. Validity used triangulation data that combined the result of observation, interviews, and documentation. The results of the study were: 1 The activities of hidden curriculum development at SMPN 2 Boja Kendal, namely: flag ceremony, school environmental management, establishing and enforcing discipline, special religious worship, smiles, greetings and courtesies, exemplary, relationship among students and principal, teachers, and staff, school canteen services. 2 The impact of the hidden curriculum development was the changing of school community’s behavior being better, created clean and beautiful school environment, the improvement of public trust to the school toward their kids’ education. Development of the hidden curriculum could establish students good character and an optimal achievement as well as a good school culture. 3 Internal supporting factors including: qualified human resources, the availability of school facilities, school environment was clean and beautiful. External supporting factors occur in the form of endorsement of the parents, school committees and communities in establishing good and virtuous character for the students.

  20. Hidden and generalized conformal symmetry of Kerr–Sen spacetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghezelbash, A M; Siahaan, H M

    2013-01-01

    It is recently conjectured that generic non-extremal Kerr black hole could be holographically dual to a hidden conformal field theory (CFT) in two dimensions. Moreover, it is known that there are two CFT duals (pictures) to describe the charged rotating black holes which correspond to angular momentum J and electric charge Q of the black hole. Furthermore these two pictures can be incorporated by the CFT duals (general picture) that are generated by SL(2,Z) modular group. The general conformal structure can be revealed by looking at charged scalar wave equation in some appropriate values of frequency and charge. In this regard, we consider the wave equation of a charged massless scalar field in the background of Kerr–Sen black hole and show that in the ‘near region’, the wave equation can be reproduced by the Casimir operator of a local SL(2,R) L ×SL(2,R) R hidden conformal symmetry. We find the exact agreement between macroscopic and microscopic physical quantities like entropy and absorption cross section of scalars for Kerr–Sen black hole. We then find an extension of vector fields that in turn yields an extended local family of SL(2,R) L ×SL(2,R) R hidden conformal symmetry, parameterized by one parameter. For some special values of the parameter, we find a copy of SL(2,R) hidden conformal algebra for the charged Gibbons–Maeda–Garfinkle–Horowitz–Strominger black hole in the strong deflection limit. (paper)

  1. Light hidden-sector U(1)s in string compactifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodsell, Mark; Ringwald, Andreas

    2010-02-01

    We review the case for light U(1) gauge bosons in the hidden-sector of heterotic and type II string compactifications, present estimates of the size of their kinetic mixing with the visible-sector hypercharge U(1), and discuss their possibly very interesting phenomenological consequences in particle physics and cosmology. (orig.)

  2. Securing Localization With Hidden and Mobile Base Stations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capkun, Srdjan; Srivastava, Mani; Cagalj, Mario

    2006-01-01

    localization based on hidden and mobile base stations. Our approach enables secure localization with a broad spectrum of localization techniques: ultrasonic or radio, based on received signal strength or signal time of flight. Through several examples we show how this approach can be used to secure nodecentric...

  3. Optimal Number of States in Hidden Markov Models and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, Hidden Markov Model is applied to model human movements as to facilitate an automatic detection of the same. A number of activities were simulated with the help of two persons. The four movements considered are walking, sitting down-getting up, fall while walking and fall while standing. The data is ...

  4. Book review: Troubling possibility, hidden fires and secret drawers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Book review: Troubling possibility, hidden fires and secret drawers: Tiyambe Zeleza's smouldering charcoal. H.F. Ross. Abstract. No Abstract. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL.

  5. Charm and Hidden Charm Scalar Resonances in Nuclear Matter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolos, Laura; Molina, Raquel; Gamermann, Daniel; Oset, Eulogio

    2009-01-01

    We study the properties of the scalar charm resonances D(s0)(2317) and D(0)(2400), and the theoretical hidden charm state X(3700) in nuclear matter. We find that for the D(s0)(2317) and X(3700) resonances, with negligible and small width at zero density, respectively, the width becomes about 100 MeV

  6. Hidden Markov model for improved ultrasound-based presence detection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaramillo Garcia, P.A.; Linnartz, J.P.M.G.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive lighting systems typically use a presence detector to save energy by switching off lights in unoccupied rooms. However, it is highly annoying when lights are erroneously turned off while a user is present (false negative, FN). This paper focuses on the estimation of presence, using a Hidden

  7. Job Clubs: Getting into the Hidden Labor Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimeldorf, Martin; Tornow, Janice A.

    1984-01-01

    A job club approach for secondary disabled youth focuses on mastering job seeking skills by behaviorally sequenced steps learned in situational experiences within a self-help group process framework. Students learn to penetrate the hidden job market, to use social networking via the telephone, and to participate successfully in job interviews. (CL)

  8. Unpacking the Hidden Efficacies of Learning in Productive Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, David; Chen, Victor; Lim, Seo Hong

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for learning where learners undergo experimentations with the phenomena at hand according to progressive and staged goals. Bowling is used as a case study in this paper. The premise for experimentations is that learners can experience hidden efficacies, including the formation of "bad habits." A distinction is made…

  9. Thermoelectric generator hidden in a shirt with a fabric radiator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leonov, V.; Vullers, R.J.M.; Hoof, C.V.

    2012-01-01

    Integration of thermopiles in garments has been performed in this work in different ways. It is shown that textile has a minor effect on power generation, which enables completely hidden and unobtrusive energy harvester. A one-milliwatt thermoelectric generator is then integrated between two layers

  10. B-graph sampling to estimate the size of a hidden population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spreen, M.; Bogaerts, S.

    2015-01-01

    Link-tracing designs are often used to estimate the size of hidden populations by utilizing the relational links between their members. A major problem in studies of hidden populations is the lack of a convenient sampling frame. The most frequently applied design in studies of hidden populations is

  11. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  12. Baryon states with hidden charm in the extended local hidden gauge approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchino, T.; Oset, E.; Liang, Wei-Hong

    2016-01-01

    The s-wave interaction of anti DΛ c , anti DΣ c , anti D * Λ c , anti D * Σ c and anti DΣ c * , anti D * Σ c * , is studied within a unitary coupled channels scheme with the extended local hidden gauge approach. In addition to the Weinberg-Tomozawa term, several additional diagrams via the pion exchange are also taken into account as box potentials. Furthermore, in order to implement the full coupled channels calculation, some of the box potentials which mix the vector-baryon and pseudoscalar-baryon sectors are extended to construct the effective transition potentials. As a result, we have observed six possible states in several angular momenta. Four of them correspond to two pairs of admixture states, two of anti DΣ c - anti D * Σ c with J = 1/2, and two of anti DΣ c * - anti D * Σ c * with J = 3/2. Moreover, we find a anti D * Σ c resonance which couples to the anti DΛ c channel and one spin degenerated bound state of anti D * Σ c * with J = 1/2,5/2. (orig.)

  13. Baryon states with hidden charm in the extended local hidden gauge approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uchino, T.; Oset, E. [Centro Mixto Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, Institutos de Investigacion de Paterna, Departamento de Fisica Teorica y IFIC, Valencia (Spain); Liang, Wei-Hong [Guangxi Normal University, Department of Physics, Guilin (China)

    2016-03-15

    The s-wave interaction of anti DΛ{sub c}, anti DΣ{sub c}, anti D{sup *}Λ{sub c}, anti D{sup *}Σ{sub c} and anti DΣ{sub c}{sup *}, anti D{sup *}Σ{sub c}{sup *}, is studied within a unitary coupled channels scheme with the extended local hidden gauge approach. In addition to the Weinberg-Tomozawa term, several additional diagrams via the pion exchange are also taken into account as box potentials. Furthermore, in order to implement the full coupled channels calculation, some of the box potentials which mix the vector-baryon and pseudoscalar-baryon sectors are extended to construct the effective transition potentials. As a result, we have observed six possible states in several angular momenta. Four of them correspond to two pairs of admixture states, two of anti DΣ{sub c} - anti D{sup *}Σ{sub c} with J = 1/2, and two of anti DΣ{sub c}{sup *} - anti D{sup *}Σ{sub c}{sup *} with J = 3/2. Moreover, we find a anti D{sup *}Σ{sub c} resonance which couples to the anti DΛ{sub c} channel and one spin degenerated bound state of anti D{sup *}Σ{sub c}{sup *} with J = 1/2,5/2. (orig.)

  14. HIV Prevalence Trends, Risky Behaviours, and Governmental and Community Responses to the Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric P. F. Chow

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of Review. Numerous studies reported the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM in China. This paper aims to investigate the overall epidemic trend and associated high-risk behaviours among Chinese MSM and to explore the governmental and community responses to the epidemic. Recent Findings. HIV prevalence among Chinese MSM increased rapidly in all Chinese regions in the past decade and disproportionally affected the Southwest China. In addition to the high-risk homosexual behaviours, overlapping bisexual, commercial, and drug use behaviours are commonly observed among Chinese MSM. The Chinese government has significantly expanded the surveillance efforts among MSM over the past decade. Community responses against HIV have been substantially strengthened with the support of international aid. However, lack of enabling legal and financial environment undermines the role of community-based organisations (CBOs in HIV surveillance and prevention. Conclusion. HIV continues to spread rapidly among MSM in China. The hidden nature of MSM and the overlapping homosexual, bisexual, and commercial behaviours remain a challenge for HIV prevention among MSM. Strong collaboration between the government and CBOs and innovative intervention approaches are essential for effective HIV surveillance and prevention among MSM in China.

  15. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  16. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

    2008-01-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

  17. Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

  18. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  19. Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

    2013-12-01

    Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

  20. The psychiatric epidemic in the American workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, C M

    1988-01-01

    make renouncement tantamount to betrayal. The mass psychogenic illness or psychiatric epidemic that occurs in the workplace offers an opportunity not only to study the elements of a biopsychosocial system, but also offers opportunities for medical anthropological studies that relate the causes and courses of specific episodes of MPI to the cultures of the individuals who develop symptoms and the cultures of the area in which the epidemic occurs.

  1. Determination of hidden chromosome instability in persons suffered from the action of factors of the Chernobyl accident by the modified 'G2 bleomycin sensitivity assay'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dibs'kij, S.S.; Dibs'ka, O.B.; Pedan, L.P.; Pyilyins'ka, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    With the help of the modified 'G 2 -bleomycin sensitivity assay' the voluntary investigation of hidden chromosome instability in 53 persons with different radiation exposures had been fulfilled. In all examined groups, the individual levels of chromosome injuries under identical bleomycin exposure varied in a wide range and didn't depend on their initial values in intact cultures. Among control donors and individuals with low radiation exposure, ∼ 33 % hypertensive persons had been identified that can be considered as a genetically caused phenomenon. In patients recovered from acute radiation, 57.9 % persons expressed the hidden chromosome instability. The data obtained allow us to assume that high doses of ionizing radiation can modify the inherited susceptibility of human chromosomes to a mutagen exposure.

  2. CDC Vital Signs-Heroin Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2015-07-07

    This podcast is based on the July 2015 CDC Vital Signs report. Heroin use and heroin-related overdose deaths are increasing. Most people are using it with other drugs, especially prescription opioid painkillers. Learn what can be done to prevent and treat the problem.  Created: 7/7/2015 by National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (NCIPC).   Date Released: 7/7/2015.

  3. Whiplash injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malanga, Gerard; Peter, Jason

    2005-10-01

    Whiplash injuries are very common and usually are associated with rear-end collisions. However, a whiplash injury can be caused by any event that results in hyperextension and flexion of the cervical spine. These injuries are of serious concern to all consumers due to escalating cost of diagnosis, treatment, insurance, and litigation. Most acute whiplash injury cases respond well to conservative treatments, which result in resolution of symptoms usually within weeks to a few months after the injury occurred. Chronic whiplash injuries often are harder to diagnose and treat and often result in poor outcomes. Current research shows that various structures in the cervical spine receive nociceptive innervation and potentially may be the cause of chronic pain symptoms. One potential pain generator showing promise is the facet or zygapophyseal joints. Various researchers have proven that these joints are injured during whiplash injuries and that diagnosis and temporary pain relief can be obtained with facet joint injections. The initial evaluation of any patient should follow an organized and stepwise approach, and more serious causes of neck pain must first be ruled out through the history, physical examination, and diagnostic testing. Treatment regimens should be evidence-based, focusing on treatments that have proven to be effective in treating acute and chronic whiplash injuries.

  4. Ocular Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... trauma can happen at home, school, play or sports. Most common injuries are scratches to the cornea or blunt trauma. Approved and tested eye and face protection is essential to prevent injuries. Sports such as hockey, baseball, racquet ball, squash, and ...

  5. Rowing Injuries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thornton, Jane S; Vinther, Anders; Wilson, Fiona

    2017-01-01

    understanding in pre-participation screening, training load, emerging concepts surrounding back and rib injury, and relative energy deficiency in sport. Through a better understanding of the nature of the sport and mechanisms of injury, physicians and other healthcare providers will be better equipped to treat...

  6. Trampoline injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nysted, M; Drogset, J O

    2006-12-01

    To describe the mechanism, location and types of injury for all patients treated for trampoline-associated injuries at St Olav's University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway, from March 2001to October 2004. Patients were identified from a National Injury Surveillance System. All patients were asked to complete a standard questionnaire at their first visit at the hospital. Most data were recorded prospectively, but data on the mechanism of injury, the number of participants on the trampoline at the time of injury, adult supervision and whether the activity occurred at school or in another organised setting were collected retrospectively. A total of 556 patients, 56% male and 44% female, were included. The mean age of patients was 11 (range 1-62) years. 77% of the injuries occurred on the body of the trampoline, including falls on to the mat, collisions with another jumper, falls on to the frame or the springs, and performing a somersault, whereas 22% of the people fell off the trampoline. In 74% of the cases, more than two people were on the trampoline, with as many as nine trampolinists noted at the time of injury. For children Trampolining can cause serious injuries, especially in the neck and elbow areas of young children. The use of a trampoline is a high-risk activity. However, a ban is not supported. The importance of having safety guidelines for the use of trampolines is emphasised.

  7. Current Zika virus epidemiology and recent epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioos, S; Mallet, H-P; Leparc Goffart, I; Gauthier, V; Cardoso, T; Herida, M

    2014-07-01

    The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus (Aedes), similar to other arboviruses, first identified in Uganda in 1947. Few human cases were reported until 2007, when a Zika outbreak occurred in Yap, Micronesia, even though ZIKV activity had been reported in Africa and in Asia through virological surveillance and entomological studies. French Polynesia has recorded a large outbreak since October 2013. A great number of cases and some with neurological and autoimmune complications have been reported in a context of concurrent circulation of dengue viruses. The clinical presentation is a "dengue-like syndrome". Until the epidemic in French Polynesia, no severe ZIKV disease had been described so far. The diagnosis is confirmed by viral genome detection by genomic amplification (RT- PCR) and viral isolation. These two large outbreaks occurred in a previously unaffected area in less than a decade. They should raise awareness as to the potential for ZIKV to spread especially since this emergent disease is not well known and that some questions remain on potential reservoirs and transmission modes as well as on clinical presentations and complications. ZIKV has the potential to spread to new areas where the Aedes mosquito vector is present and could be a risk for Southern Europe. Strategies for the prevention and control of ZIKV disease should include the use of insect repellent and mosquito vector eradication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  8. Diffusive epidemic process: theory and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maia, Daniel Souza; Dickman, Ronald

    2007-01-01

    We study the continuous absorbing-state phase transition in the one-dimensional diffusive epidemic process via mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulation. In this model, particles of two species (A and B) hop on a lattice and undergo reactions B → A and A+B → 2B; the total particle number is conserved. We formulate the model as a continuous-time Markov process described by a master equation. A phase transition between the (absorbing) B-free state and an active state is observed as the parameters (reaction and diffusion rates, and total particle density) are varied. Mean-field theory reveals a surprising, nonmonotonic dependence of the critical recovery rate on the diffusion rate of B particles. A computational realization of the process that is faithful to the transition rates defining the model is devised, allowing for direct comparison with theory. Using the quasi-stationary simulation method we determine the order parameter and the survival time in systems of up to 4000 sites. Due to strong finite-size effects, the results converge only for large system sizes. We find no evidence for a discontinuous transition. Our results are consistent with the existence of three distinct universality classes, depending on whether A particles diffusive more rapidly, less rapidly or at the same rate as B particles. We also perform quasi-stationary simulations of the triplet creation model, which yield results consistent with a discontinuous transition at high diffusion rates

  9. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  10. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  11. Hidden photons in beam dump experiments and in connection with dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreas, Sarah

    2012-12-15

    Hidden sectors with light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so-called hidden photons, recently received much interest as natural feature of beyond standard model scenarios like string theory and SUSY and because of their possible connection to dark matter. This paper presents limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from experiments at KEK and Orsay. Additionally, various hidden sector models containing both a hidden photon and a dark matter candidate are discussed with respect to their viability and potential signatures in direct detection.

  12. Hidden photons in beam dump experiments and in connection with dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreas, Sarah

    2012-12-01

    Hidden sectors with light extra U(1) gauge bosons, so-called hidden photons, recently received much interest as natural feature of beyond standard model scenarios like string theory and SUSY and because of their possible connection to dark matter. This paper presents limits on hidden photons from past electron beam dump experiments including two new limits from experiments at KEK and Orsay. Additionally, various hidden sector models containing both a hidden photon and a dark matter candidate are discussed with respect to their viability and potential signatures in direct detection.

  13. The prevention of baseball and softball injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janda, David H

    2003-04-01

    Forty million individuals participate in organized softball leagues each year in the United States. Eighteen million additional student athletes and young adults also participate in organized baseball league play. In addition to being two of the most popular team sports in the United States, they also are responsible for a significant percentage of sports-related injuries that are sustained in the United States. Fortunately, numerous interventions independently have been shown to be effective at reducing the injury scenario, which has grown to be of epidemic proportion. Interventions such as break-away bases, batting helmets, face shields on helmets, lighter mass baseballs, and teaching and reiteration of the fundamentals of softball and baseball all have been effective in preventing millions of injuries and billions of dollars in healthcare costs each year in the United States.

  14. Haiti's progress in achieving its 10-year plan to eliminate cholera: hidden sickness cannot be cured.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koski-Karell, Victoria; Farmer, Paul E; Isaac, Benito; Campa, Elizabeth M; Viaud, Loune; Namphy, Paul C; Ternier, Ralph; Ivers, Louise C

    2016-01-01

    Since the beginning of the cholera epidemic in Haiti 5 years ago, the prevalence of this deadly water-borne disease has fallen far below the initial rates registered during its explosive outset. However, cholera continues to cause extensive suffering and needless deaths across the country, particularly among the poor. The urgent need to eliminate transmission of cholera persists: compared to the same period in 2014, the first 4 months of 2015 saw three times the number of cholera cases. Drawing upon epidemiology, clinical work (and clinical knowledge), policy, ecology, and political economy, and informed by ethnographic data collected in a rural area of Haiti called Bocozel, this paper evaluates the progress of the nation's 10-year Plan for the Elimination of Cholera. Bocozel is a rice-producing region where most people live in extreme poverty. The irrigation network is decrepit, the land is prone to environmental shocks, fertilizer is not affordable, and the government's capacity to assist farmers is undermined by resource constraints. When peasants do have rice to sell, the price of domestically grown rice is twice that of US-imported rice. Canal water is not only used to irrigate thousands of acres of rice paddies and sustain livestock, but also to bathe, wash, and play, while water from wells, hand pumps, and the river is used for drinking, cooking, and bathing. Only one out of the three government-sponsored water treatment stations in the research area is still functional and utilized by those who can afford it. Latrines are scarce and often shared by up to 30 people; open defecation remains common. Structural vulnerabilities cut across all sectors - not just water, sanitation, health care, and education, but agriculture, environment, (global and local) commerce, transportation, and governance as well. These are among the hidden sicknesses that impede Haiti and its partners' capacity to eliminate cholera.

  15. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  16. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  17. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  18. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent's awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire

  19. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  20. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928