A new method for explicit modelling of single failure event within different common cause failure groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kančev, Duško; Čepin, Marko

2012-01-01

Redundancy and diversity are the main principles of the safety systems in the nuclear industry. Implementation of safety components redundancy has been acknowledged as an effective approach for assuring high levels of system reliability. The existence of redundant components, identical in most of the cases, implicates a probability of their simultaneous failure due to a shared cause—a common cause failure. This paper presents a new method for explicit modelling of single component failure event within multiple common cause failure groups simultaneously. The method is based on a modification of the frequently utilised Beta Factor parametric model. The motivation for development of this method lays in the fact that one of the most widespread softwares for fault tree and event tree modelling as part of the probabilistic safety assessment does not comprise the option for simultaneous assignment of single failure event to multiple common cause failure groups. In that sense, the proposed method can be seen as an advantage of the explicit modelling of common cause failures. A standard standby safety system is selected as a case study for application and study of the proposed methodology. The results and insights implicate improved, more transparent and more comprehensive models within probabilistic safety assessment.

RAS Initiative - Events

Science.gov (United States)

The NCI RAS Initiative has organized multiple events with outside experts to discuss how the latest scientific and technological breakthroughs can be applied to discover vulnerabilities in RAS-driven cancers.

Modeling the recurrent failure to thrive in less than two-year children: recurrent events survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Saki Malehi, Amal; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Ahmadi, Kambiz; Kholdi, Nahid

2014-01-01

This study aimes to evaluate the failure to thrive (FTT) recurrent event over time. This longitudinal study was conducted during February 2007 to July 2009. The primary outcome was growth failure. The analysis was done using 1283 children who had experienced FTT several times, based on recurrent events analysis. Fifty-nine percent of the children had experienced the FTT at least one time and 5.3% of them had experienced it up to four times. The Prentice-Williams-Peterson (PWP) model revealed significant relationship between diarrhea (HR=1.26), respiratory infections (HR=1.25), urinary tract infections (HR=1.51), discontinuation of breast-feeding (HR=1.96), teething (HR=1.18), initiation age of complementary feeding (HR=1.11) and hazard rate of the first FTT event. Recurrence nature of the FTT is a main problem, which taking it into account increases the accuracy in analysis of FTT event process and can lead to identify different risk factors for each FTT recurrences.

Analysis of failure events for expansion joints in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sato, Masahiro [Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan)

2001-09-01

Although a large number of expansion joints are used in nuclear power plants with light water reactors, their failure events have not been paid as much attention as those of vessels and pipes. However, as the operation period of nuclear power plants becomes longer, it is necessary to pay attention to their failure events as well as those of vessels and pipes, because aging problems and latent troubles originated in design or fabrication of expansion joints may appear during their long period operation. In this work, we investigated failure event reports of expansion joints in nuclear power plants both in Japan and in U.S.A. and analyzed (1) the influence to output power level, (2) the position and (3) the cause of each failure. It is revealed that the failure events of expansion joints have continuously occurred, some of which have exerted influence upon power level and have caused fatal or injury accidents of personnel, and hence the importance of corrective actions to prevent the recurrence of such events is pointed out. The importance of countermeasures to the following individual events is also pointed out: (1) corrosion of expansion joints in service water systems, (2) degradation of rubber expansion joints in main condensers, (3) vibration and fatigue of expansion joints in extraction steam lines and (4) transgranular stress corrosion cracking of penetration bellows of containments. (author)

Failure diagnosis using discrete event models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sampath, M.; Sengupta, R.; Lafortune, S.; Teneketzis, D.; Sinnamohideen, K.

1994-01-01

We propose a Discrete Event Systems (DES) approach to the failure diagnosis problem. We present a methodology for modeling physical systems in a DES framework. We discuss the notion of diagnosability and present the construction procedure of the diagnoser. Finally, we illustrate our approach using a Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system

Software failure events derivation and analysis by frame-based technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, H.-W.; Shih, C.; Yih, Swu; Chen, M.-H.

2007-01-01

A frame-based technique, including physical frame, logical frame, and cognitive frame, was adopted to perform digital I and C failure events derivation and analysis for generic ABWR. The physical frame was structured with a modified PCTran-ABWR plant simulation code, which was extended and enhanced on the feedwater system, recirculation system, and steam line system. The logical model is structured with MATLAB, which was incorporated into PCTran-ABWR to improve the pressure control system, feedwater control system, recirculation control system, and automated power regulation control system. As a result, the software failure of these digital control systems can be properly simulated and analyzed. The cognitive frame was simulated by the operator awareness status in the scenarios. Moreover, via an internal characteristics tuning technique, the modified PCTran-ABWR can precisely reflect the characteristics of the power-core flow. Hence, in addition to the transient plots, the analysis results can then be demonstrated on the power-core flow map. A number of postulated I and C system software failure events were derived to achieve the dynamic analyses. The basis for event derivation includes the published classification for software anomalies, the digital I and C design data for ABWR, chapter 15 accident analysis of generic SAR, and the reported NPP I and C software failure events. The case study of this research includes: (1) the software CMF analysis for the major digital control systems; and (2) postulated ABWR digital I and C software failure events derivation from the actual happening of non-ABWR digital I and C software failure events, which were reported to LER of USNRC or IRS of IAEA. These events were analyzed by PCTran-ABWR. Conflicts among plant status, computer status, and human cognitive status are successfully identified. The operator might not easily recognize the abnormal condition, because the computer status seems to progress normally. However, a well

Viability of Event Management Business in Batangas City, Philippine: Basis for Business Operation Initiatives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeninah Christia D. Borbon

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The research study on Viability of Event Management Business in Batangas City: Basis for Business Operation Initiatives aimed to assess the viability of this type of business using Thompson’s (2005 Dimension of Business Viability as its tool in order to create business operation initiatives. It provided a good framework for defining success factors in entrepreneurial operation initiatives in a specific business type – event management. This study utilized event organizers based in Batangas, a southern popular province, which also is a great popular destination for many types of events. Findings showed that the event management business in Batangas City is generally a personal event type of business whose year of operation ranges from one to three years, mostly link to church or reception venues and usually offers on the day coordination. In the assessment of its perceived viability, it was found out that this type of business is moderately viable in terms of market, technical, business model, management model, economic and financial, and exit strategy. Among all the dimensions tested, only market, management model, economic and financial, and exit strategy showed significant relationship with the profile variables of the event management business. From the enumerated problems encountered, those that got the highest rate were demanding clients, overbooking of reservation/exceeding number of guests and failure to meet spectators and/or competitors expectations. And, the recommended business operation initiatives were based on the weaknesses discovered using Thompson’s Dimension of Business Viability Model.

Risk assessment of K basin twelve-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MORGAN, R.G.

1999-01-01

The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rates which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations suggest that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) evaluate the risk of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the associated potential leak rate from a damaged valve

Risk assessment of K basin twelve-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MORGAN, R.G.

1999-04-06

The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rates which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations suggest that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this activity are to: (1) evaluate the risk of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the associated potential leak rate from a damaged valve.

Exploitation of a component event data bank for common cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Games, A.M.; Amendola, A.; Martin, P.

1985-01-01

Investigations into using the European Reliability Data System Component Event Data Bank for common cause failure analysis have been carried out. Starting from early exercises where data were analyzed without computer aid, different types of linked multiple failures have been identified. A classification system is proposed based on this experience. It defines a multiple failure event space wherein each category defines causal, modal, temporal and structural links between failures. It is shown that a search algorithm which incorporates the specific interrogative procedures of the data bank can be developed in conjunction with this classification system. It is concluded that the classification scheme and the search algorithm are useful organizational tools in the field of common cause failures studies. However, it is also suggested that the use of the term common cause failure should be avoided since it embodies to many different types of linked multiple failures

A method for estimating failure rates for low probability events arising in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorne, M.C.; Williams, M.M.R.

1995-01-01

The authors develop a method for predicting failure rates and failure probabilities per event when, over a given test period or number of demands, no failures have occurred. A Bayesian approach is adopted to calculate a posterior probability distribution for the failure rate or failure probability per event subsequent to the test period. This posterior is then used to estimate effective failure rates or probabilities over a subsequent period of time or number of demands. In special circumstances, the authors results reduce to the well-known rules of thumb, viz: 1/N and 1/T, where N is the number of demands during the test period for no failures and T is the test period for no failures. However, the authors are able to give strict conditions on the validity of these rules of thumb and to improve on them when necessary

Acute Kidney Injury and Risk of Heart Failure and Atherosclerotic Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Go, Alan S; Hsu, Chi-Yuan; Yang, Jingrong; Tan, Thida C; Zheng, Sijie; Ordonez, Juan D; Liu, Kathleen D

2018-05-17

AKI in the hospital is common and is associated with excess mortality. We examined whether AKI is also independently associated with a higher risk of different cardiovascular events in the first year after discharge. We conducted a retrospective analysis of a cohort between 2006 and 2013 with follow-up through 2014, within Kaiser Permanente Northern California. We identified all adults admitted to 21 hospitals who had one or more in-hospital serum creatinine test result and survived to discharge. Occurrence of AKI was on the basis of Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes diagnostic criteria. Potential confounders were identified from comprehensive inpatient and outpatient, laboratory, and pharmacy electronic medical records. During the 365 days after discharge, we ascertained occurrence of heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, peripheral artery disease, and ischemic stroke events from electronic medical records. Among a matched cohort of 146,941 hospitalized adults, 31,245 experienced AKI. At 365 days postdischarge, AKI was independently associated with higher rates of the composite outcome of hospitalization for heart failure and atherosclerotic events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.13 to 1.25) even after adjustment for demographics, comorbidities, preadmission eGFR and proteinuria, heart failure and sepsis complicating the hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, length of stay, and predicted in-hospital mortality. This was driven by an excess risk of subsequent heart failure (aHR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.33 to 1.56), whereas there was no significant association with follow-up atherosclerotic events (aHR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.12). AKI is independently associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events, especially heart failure, after hospital discharge. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Porting Initiation and Failure into Linked CHEETAH

Science.gov (United States)

Souers, Clark; Vitello, Peter

2007-06-01

Linked CHEETAH is a thermo-chemical code coupled to a 2-D hydrocode. Initially, a quadratic-pressure dependent kinetic rate was used, which worked well in modeling prompt detonation of explosives of large size, but does not work on other aspects of explosive behavior. The variable-pressure Tarantula reactive flow rate model was developed with JWL++ in order to also describe failure and initiation, and we have moved this model into Linked CHEETAH. The model works by turning on only above a pressure threshold, where a slow turn-on creates initiation. At a higher pressure, the rate suddenly leaps to a large value over a small pressure range. A slowly failing cylinder will see a rapidly declining rate, which pushes it quickly into failure. At a high pressure, the detonation rate is constant. A sequential validation procedure is used, which includes metal-confined cylinders, rate-sticks, corner-turning, initiation and threshold, gap tests and air gaps. The size (diameter) effect is central to the calibration. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48.

Preliminary Analysis of the Common Cause Failure Events for Domestic Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Daeil; Han, Sanghoon

2007-01-01

It is known that the common cause failure (CCF) events have a great effect on the safety and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) results of nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, the domestic studies have been mainly focused on the analysis method and modeling of CCF events. Thus, the analysis of the CCF events for domestic NPPs were performed to establish a domestic database for the CCF events and to deliver them to the operation office of the international common cause failure data exchange (ICDE) project. This paper presents the analysis results of the CCF events for domestic nuclear power plants

Analysis of arrhythmic events is useful to detect lead failure earlier in patients followed by remote monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Nishii, Nobuhiro; Miyoshi, Akihito; Kubo, Motoki; Miyamoto, Masakazu; Morimoto, Yoshimasa; Kawada, Satoshi; Nakagawa, Koji; Watanabe, Atsuyuki; Nakamura, Kazufumi; Morita, Hiroshi; Ito, Hiroshi

2018-03-01

Remote monitoring (RM) has been advocated as the new standard of care for patients with cardiovascular implantable electronic devices (CIEDs). RM has allowed the early detection of adverse clinical events, such as arrhythmia, lead failure, and battery depletion. However, lead failure was often identified only by arrhythmic events, but not impedance abnormalities. To compare the usefulness of arrhythmic events with conventional impedance abnormalities for identifying lead failure in CIED patients followed by RM. CIED patients in 12 hospitals have been followed by the RM center in Okayama University Hospital. All transmitted data have been analyzed and summarized. From April 2009 to March 2016, 1,873 patients have been followed by the RM center. During the mean follow-up period of 775 days, 42 lead failure events (atrial lead 22, right ventricular pacemaker lead 5, implantable cardioverter defibrillator [ICD] lead 15) were detected. The proportion of lead failures detected only by arrhythmic events, which were not detected by conventional impedance abnormalities, was significantly higher than that detected by impedance abnormalities (arrhythmic event 76.2%, 95% CI: 60.5-87.9%; impedance abnormalities 23.8%, 95% CI: 12.1-39.5%). Twenty-seven events (64.7%) were detected without any alert. Of 15 patients with ICD lead failure, none has experienced inappropriate therapy. RM can detect lead failure earlier, before clinical adverse events. However, CIEDs often diagnose lead failure as just arrhythmic events without any warning. Thus, to detect lead failure earlier, careful human analysis of arrhythmic events is useful. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Identification of Initiating Events for PGSFR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jintae; Jae, Moosung

2016-01-01

The Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) is by far the most advanced reactor of the six Generation IV reactors. The SFR uses liquid sodium as the reactor coolant, which has superior heat transport characteristics. It also allows high power density with low coolant volume fraction and operation at low pressure. In Korea, KAERI has been developing Prototype Generation-IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (PGSFR) that employs passive safety systems and inherent reactivity feedback effects. In order to prepare for the licensing, it is necessary to assess the safety of the reactor. Thus, the objective of this study is to conduct accident sequence analysis that can contribute to risk assessment. The analysis embraces identification of initiating events and accident sequences development. PGSFR is to test and demonstrate the performance of transuranic (TRU)-containing metal fuel required for a commercial SFR, and to demonstrate the TRU transmutation capability of a burner reactor as a part of an advanced fuel cycle system. Initiating events that can happen in PGSFR were identified through the MLD method. This method presents a model of a plant in terms of individual events and their combinations in a systematic and logical way. The 11 identified initiating events in this study include the events considered in the past analysis that was conducted for PRISM-150

Identification of Initiating Events for PGSFR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jintae; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

The Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) is by far the most advanced reactor of the six Generation IV reactors. The SFR uses liquid sodium as the reactor coolant, which has superior heat transport characteristics. It also allows high power density with low coolant volume fraction and operation at low pressure. In Korea, KAERI has been developing Prototype Generation-IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (PGSFR) that employs passive safety systems and inherent reactivity feedback effects. In order to prepare for the licensing, it is necessary to assess the safety of the reactor. Thus, the objective of this study is to conduct accident sequence analysis that can contribute to risk assessment. The analysis embraces identification of initiating events and accident sequences development. PGSFR is to test and demonstrate the performance of transuranic (TRU)-containing metal fuel required for a commercial SFR, and to demonstrate the TRU transmutation capability of a burner reactor as a part of an advanced fuel cycle system. Initiating events that can happen in PGSFR were identified through the MLD method. This method presents a model of a plant in terms of individual events and their combinations in a systematic and logical way. The 11 identified initiating events in this study include the events considered in the past analysis that was conducted for PRISM-150.

Initiating Events Modeling for On-Line Risk Monitoring Application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.

1998-01-01

In order to make on-line risk monitoring application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment more complete and realistic, a special attention need to be dedicated to initiating events modeling. Two different issues are of special importance: one is how to model initiating events frequency according to current plant configuration (equipment alignment and out of service status) and operating condition (weather and various activities), and the second is how to preserve dependencies between initiating events model and rest of PRA model. First, the paper will discuss how initiating events can be treated in on-line risk monitoring application. Second, practical example of initiating events modeling in EPRI's Equipment Out of Service on-line monitoring tool will be presented. Gains from application and possible improvements will be discussed in conclusion. (author)

Towards a whole-network risk assessment for railway bridge failures caused by scour during flood events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lamb Rob

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Localised erosion (scour during flood flow conditions can lead to costly damage or catastrophic failure of bridges, and in some cases loss of life or significant disruption to transport networks. Here, we take a broad scale view to assess risk associated with bridge scour during flood events over an entire infrastructure network, illustrating the analysis with data from the British railways. There have been 54 recorded events since 1846 in which scour led to the failure of railway bridges in Britain. These events tended to occur during periods of extremely high river flow, although there is uncertainty about the precise conditions under which failures occur, which motivates a probabilistic analysis of the failure events. We show how data from the historical bridge failures, combined with hydrological analysis, have been used to construct fragility curves that quantify the conditional probability of bridge failure as a function of river flow, accompanied by estimates of the associated uncertainty. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a national, spatial joint probability model for extremes in river flows. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event, and provide an empirical basis for further broad-scale network risk analysis.

Centrifuge model tests of rainfall-induced slope failures for the investigation of the initiation conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Matziaris, Vasileios; Marshall, Alec; Yu, Hai-Sui

2015-04-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are very common natural disasters which cause damage to properties and infrastructure and may result in the loss of human lives. These phenomena often take place in unsaturated soil slopes and are triggered by the saturation of the soil profile, due to rain infiltration, which leads to a loss of shear strength. The aim of this study is to determine rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides under different initial conditions. Model tests of rainfall-induced landslides are conducted in the Nottingham Centre for Geomechanics 50g-T geotechnical centrifuge. Initially unsaturated plane-strain slope models made with fine silica sand are prepared at varying densities at 1g and accommodated within a climatic chamber which provides controlled environmental conditions. During the centrifuge flight at 60g, rainfall events of varying intensity and duration are applied to the slope models causing the initiation of slope failure. The impact of soil state properties and rainfall characteristics on the landslide initiation process are discussed. The variation of pore water pressures within the slope before, during and after simulated rainfall events is recorded using miniature pore pressure transducers buried in the soil model. Slope deformation is determined by using a high-speed camera and digital image analysis techniques.

Multi-Unit Initiating Event Analysis for a Single-Unit Internal Events Level 1 PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Dong San; Park, Jin Hee; Lim, Ho Gon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 highlighted the importance of considering the risks from multi-unit accidents at a site. The ASME/ANS probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) standard also includes some requirements related to multi-unit aspects, one of which (IE-B5) is as follows: 'For multi-unit sites with shared systems, DO NOT SUBSUME multi-unit initiating events if they impact mitigation capability [1].' However, the existing single-unit PSA models do not explicitly consider multi-unit initiating events and hence systems shared by multiple units (e.g., alternate AC diesel generator) are fully credited for the single unit and ignores the need for the shared systems by other units at the same site [2]. This paper describes the results of the multi-unit initiating event (IE) analysis performed as a part of the at-power internal events Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for an OPR1000 single unit ('reference unit'). In this study, a multi-unit initiating event analysis for a single-unit PSA was performed, and using the results, dual-unit LOOP initiating event was added to the existing PSA model for the reference unit (OPR1000 type). Event trees were developed for dual-unit LOOP and dual-unit SBO which can be transferred from dual- unit LOOP. Moreover, CCF basic events for 5 diesel generators were modelled. In case of simultaneous SBO occurrences in both units, this study compared two different assumptions on the availability of the AAC D/G. As a result, when dual-unit LOOP initiating event was added to the existing single-unit PSA model, the total CDF increased by 1∼ 2% depending on the probability that the AAC D/G is available to a specific unit in case of simultaneous SBO in both units.

Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kančev, Duško, E-mail: dusko.kancev@ec.europa.eu [European Commission, DG-JRC, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit [European Commission, DG-JRC, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und-Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Schwetnergasse 1, 50667 Köln (Germany); Wattrelos, Didier [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), BP 17 - 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)

2014-07-01

Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

Statistical analysis of events related to emergency diesel generators failures in the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kančev, Duško; Duchac, Alexander; Zerger, Benoit; Maqua, Michael; Wattrelos, Didier

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Analysis of operating experience related to emergency diesel generators events at NPPs. • Four abundant operating experience databases screened. • Delineating important insights and conclusions based on the operating experience. - Abstract: This paper is aimed at studying the operating experience related to emergency diesel generators (EDGs) events at nuclear power plants collected from the past 20 years. Events related to EDGs failures and/or unavailability as well as all the supporting equipment are in the focus of the analysis. The selected operating experience was analyzed in detail in order to identify the type of failures, attributes that contributed to the failure, failure modes potential or real, discuss risk relevance, summarize important lessons learned, and provide recommendations. The study in this particular paper is tightly related to the performing of statistical analysis of the operating experience. For the purpose of this study EDG failure is defined as EDG failure to function on demand (i.e. fail to start, fail to run) or during testing, or an unavailability of an EDG, except of unavailability due to regular maintenance. The Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases as well as the operating experience contained in the IAEA/NEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports were screened. The screening methodology applied for each of the four different databases is presented. Further on, analysis aimed at delineating the causes, root causes, contributing factors and consequences are performed. A statistical analysis was performed related to the chronology of events, types of failures, the operational circumstances of detection of the failure and the affected components/subsystems. The conclusions and results of the statistical analysis are discussed. The main findings concerning the testing

Sensitivity studies on the approaches for addressing multiple initiating events in fire events PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Dae Il; Lim, Ho Gon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

A single fire event within a fire compartment or a fire scenario can cause multiple initiating events (IEs). As an example, a fire in a turbine building fire area can cause a loss of the main feed-water (LOMF) and loss of off-site power (LOOP) IEs. Previous domestic fire events PSA had considered only the most severe initiating event among multiple initiating events. NUREG/CR-6850 and ANS/ASME PRA Standard require that multiple IEs are to be addressed in fire events PSA. In this paper, sensitivity studies on the approaches for addressing multiple IEs in fire events PSA for Hanul Unit 3 were performed and their results were presented. In this paper, sensitivity studies on the approaches for addressing multiple IEs in fire events PSA are performed and their results were presented. From the sensitivity analysis results, we can find that the incorporations of multiple IEs into fire events PSA model result in the core damage frequency (CDF) increase and may lead to the generation of the duplicate cutsets. Multiple IEs also can occur at internal flooding event or other external events such as seismic event. They should be considered in the constructions of PSA models in order to realistically estimate risk due to flooding or seismic events.

A study on the regulatory approach of KNGR multiple failure events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Keun Sun; Kweon, Y. C.; Kang, H. J.; Lee, S. J.; Cheong, D. Y.; Lee, Y. S.; Lee, M. K. [Sunmoon Univ., Asan (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Ji Hwan [Baekseok College of Cultural studies, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of)

2001-01-15

This project is to provide the regulatory direction of containment bypass during multiple steam generator tube failure issue for the Korean Next Generation Reactors, which is a part of major technical issues resulted from the safety regulation R and D on the KNGR. The outstanding results are as follows : the Multiple Steam Generator Tube Repture(MSGTR) event has never been occurred in the history of commercial nuclear reactor operation but single Steam Generator Tube Rupture(SGTR) event is reported to occur every two years. A probabilistic safety analysis study on MSGTR event, however, show its probability of occurrence is to be the same order as the design basis accidents such as LACA. In this regard, the ability of NPPs to cope with MSGTR event is required. Some requirements on initial and boundary conditions are suggested to be used in the analyses of NPPs during MSGTR events. The items that should be considered in establishing regulatory requirements are summarized as follows : the analyses of MSGTR events should be performed by a best-estimate method with normal full power conditions except initial reactor power of 102%, all safety- and non-safety grade systems and components are assumed to be available only in automatic mode, tube ruptures are assumed to occur at the steam generator which is in the loop connected with a pressurizer, guillotine-type tube raptures are assumed near tube sheet on hot-leg side, the results of 1-5 tube ruptures should be compared, an appropriate break flow model should be used and critical flow model can be compared, an appropriate break flow model should be used and critical flow model can be used if needed, operator response time should be based on ANSI/ANS-51.1-1983 and ANSI/ANS-58.8-1984, acceptance criteria should be stated in terms of MSSV lift time as well as radiological consequences. It is recommended that some analyses should be carried out in order to figure out the effects of tube rupture modelling methods. A single

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Presenting Respiratory Failure as the Sole Initial Manifestation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fuyuki Tateno

2014-08-01

Full Text Available It is rare that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS presents with respiratory failure as the sole initial manifestation. A 72-year-old man with mild chronic obstructive pulmonary disease developed exertional dyspnea for 13 months. He then progressed to limb weakness that led to the diagnosis of ALS. Although rare, ALS can present with respiratory failure as the sole initial manifestation more than 1 year prior to limb weakness.

Master Logic Diagram: An Approach to Identify Initiating Events of HTGRs

Science.gov (United States)

Purba, J. H.

2018-02-01

Initiating events of a nuclear power plant being evaluated need to be firstly identified prior to applying probabilistic safety assessment on that plant. Various types of master logic diagrams (MLDs) have been proposedforsearching initiating events of the next generation of nuclear power plants, which have limited data and operating experiences. Those MLDs are different in the number of steps or levels and different in the basis for developing them. This study proposed another type of MLD approach to find high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) initiating events. It consists of five functional steps starting from the top event representing the final objective of the safety functions to the basic event representing the goal of the MLD development, which is an initiating event. The application of the proposed approach to search for two HTGR initiating events, i.e. power turbine generator trip and loss of offsite power, is provided. The results confirmed that the proposed MLD is feasiblefor finding HTGR initiating events.

Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung

2015-01-01

One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making

Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making.

Zero tolerance for failure. An AREVA initiative to improve reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lippert, Hans-Joachim; Gentet, Guy; Mollard, Pierre; Garner, Norman

2010-01-01

Significant improvements in fuel reliability have been realized over the past 2 decades, but total elimination of failures has remained elusive. Driving reliability to higher levels requires a philosophy that does not accept that even infrequent and isolated failures are inevitable - it was on this foundation that Areva's Zero Tolerance for Failure (ZTF) initiative was established. This is not in itself either a program or project, but a fundamental shift in the way of thinking about work according to the following four principles: - Failures are avoidable, - Zero failures are our goal, - We will respond rapidly to any failure, - We succeed when we fix failures in a way that precludes recurrence. The shift to a ZTF philosophy is a broad change in corporate culture that expands the concept of failure far beyond cases where fuel rod cladding integrity is breached. While this paper specifically illustrates the ways in which ZTF has shaped the company's response to enhancing fuel rod reliability, ZTF extends to any failures of fuel products to deliver expected levels of performance, manufacturing processes to meet specifications and high first-pass acceptance criteria, and beyond to error-free performance of engineering analyses and cycle design and licensing services. Application of ZTF to enhancing fuel reliability deploys efforts in the areas of manufacturing, human factors, design, R and D, processes and product strategy. In order to achieve the necessary improvements, a number of important actions have been initiated across regions and facilities. In addition to these global scale projects and measures, each region contributes by adopting measures which are relevant to its particular activities and market needs. (orig.)

External events analysis for the Savannah River Site K reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandyberry, M.D.; Wingo, H.E.

1990-01-01

The probabilistic external events analysis performed for the Savannah River Site K-reactor PRA considered many different events which are generally perceived to be ''external'' to the reactor and its systems, such as fires, floods, seismic events, and transportation accidents (as well as many others). Events which have been shown to be significant contributors to risk include seismic events, tornados, a crane failure scenario, fires and dam failures. The total contribution to the core melt frequency from external initiators has been found to be 2.2 x 10 -4 per year, from which seismic events are the major contributor (1.2 x 10 -4 per year). Fire initiated events contribute 1.4 x 10 -7 per year, tornados 5.8 x 10 -7 per year, dam failures 1.5 x 10 -6 per year and the crane failure scenario less than 10 -4 per year to the core melt frequency. 8 refs., 3 figs., 5 tabs

Reliability of piping system components. Volume 4: The pipe failure event database

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nyman, R; Erixon, S [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Tomic, B [ENCONET Consulting GmbH, Vienna (Austria); Lydell, B [RSA Technologies, Visat, CA (United States)

1996-07-01

Available public and proprietary databases on piping system failures were searched for relevant information. Using a relational database to identify groupings of piping failure modes and failure mechanisms, together with insights from published PSAs, the project team determined why, how and where piping systems fail. This report represents a compendium of technical issues important to the analysis of pipe failure events, and statistical estimation of failure rates. Inadequacies of traditional PSA methodology are addressed, with directions for PSA methodology enhancements. A `data driven and systems oriented` analysis approach is proposed to enable assignment of unique identities to risk-significant piping system component failure. Sufficient operating experience does exist to generate quality data on piping failures. Passive component failures should be addressed by today`s PSAs to allow for aging analysis and effective, on-line risk management. 42 refs, 25 figs.

Reliability of piping system components. Volume 4: The pipe failure event database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nyman, R.; Erixon, S.; Tomic, B.; Lydell, B.

1996-07-01

Available public and proprietary databases on piping system failures were searched for relevant information. Using a relational database to identify groupings of piping failure modes and failure mechanisms, together with insights from published PSAs, the project team determined why, how and where piping systems fail. This report represents a compendium of technical issues important to the analysis of pipe failure events, and statistical estimation of failure rates. Inadequacies of traditional PSA methodology are addressed, with directions for PSA methodology enhancements. A 'data driven and systems oriented' analysis approach is proposed to enable assignment of unique identities to risk-significant piping system component failure. Sufficient operating experience does exist to generate quality data on piping failures. Passive component failures should be addressed by today's PSAs to allow for aging analysis and effective, on-line risk management. 42 refs, 25 figs

The National Heart Failure Project: a health care financing administration initiative to improve the care of Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Masoudi, F A; Ordin, D L; Delaney, R J; Krumholz, H M; Havranek, E P

2000-01-01

This is the second in a series describing Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) initiatives to improve care for Medicare beneficiaries with heart failure. The first article outlined the history of HCFA quality-improvement projects and current initiatives to improve care in six priority areas: heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, pneumonia, diabetes, and breast cancer. This article details the objectives and design of the Medicare National Heart Failure Quality Improvement Project (NHF), which has as its goal the improvement of inpatient heart failure care. (c)2000 by CHF, Inc.

Identification of Common Cause Initiating Events Using the NEA IRS Database. Rev 0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulig, Maciej; Tomic, Bojan; Nyman, R alph

2007-02-01

The study presented in this report is a continuation of work conducted for SKI in 1998 on the identification of Common Cause Initiators (CCIs) based on operational events documented in the NEA Incident Reporting System (IRS). Based on the new operational experience accumulated in IRS in the period 1995-2006, the project focused on the identification of new CCI events. An attempt was also made to compare the observations made in the earlier study with the results of the current work. The earlier study and the current project cover the events reported in the IRS database with the incident date in the period from 01.01.1980 to 15.11.2006. The review of the NEA IRS database conducted within this project generated a sample of events that provides insights regarding the Common Cause Initiators (CCIs). This list includes certain number of 'real' CCIs but also potential CCIs and other events that provide insights on potential dependency mechanisms. Relevant characteristics of the events were analysed in the context of CCIs. This evaluation was intended to investigate the importance of the CCI issue and also to provide technical insights that could help in the modelling the CCIs in PSAs. The analysis of operational events provided useful engineering insights regarding the potential dependencies that may originate CCIs. Some indications were also obtained on the plant SSCs/areas that are susceptible to common cause failures. Direct interrelations between the accident mitigation systems through common support systems, which can originate a CCI, represent a dominant dependency mechanism involved in the CCI events. The most important contributors of this type are electrical power supply systems and I-and-C systems. Area-related events (fire, flood, water spray), external hazards (lightning, high wind or cold weather) and transients (water hammer, electrical transients both internal and external) have also been found to be important sources of dependency that may originate CCIs

Identification of Common Cause Initiating Events Using the NEA IRS Database. Rev 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kulig, Maciej; Tomic, Bojan (Enconet Consulting, Vienna (Austria)); Nyman, Ralph (Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden))

2007-02-15

The study presented in this report is a continuation of work conducted for SKI in 1998 on the identification of Common Cause Initiators (CCIs) based on operational events documented in the NEA Incident Reporting System (IRS). Based on the new operational experience accumulated in IRS in the period 1995-2006, the project focused on the identification of new CCI events. An attempt was also made to compare the observations made in the earlier study with the results of the current work. The earlier study and the current project cover the events reported in the IRS database with the incident date in the period from 01.01.1980 to 15.11.2006. The review of the NEA IRS database conducted within this project generated a sample of events that provides insights regarding the Common Cause Initiators (CCIs). This list includes certain number of 'real' CCIs but also potential CCIs and other events that provide insights on potential dependency mechanisms. Relevant characteristics of the events were analysed in the context of CCIs. This evaluation was intended to investigate the importance of the CCI issue and also to provide technical insights that could help in the modelling the CCIs in PSAs. The analysis of operational events provided useful engineering insights regarding the potential dependencies that may originate CCIs. Some indications were also obtained on the plant SSCs/areas that are susceptible to common cause failures. Direct interrelations between the accident mitigation systems through common support systems, which can originate a CCI, represent a dominant dependency mechanism involved in the CCI events. The most important contributors of this type are electrical power supply systems and I-and-C systems. Area-related events (fire, flood, water spray), external hazards (lightning, high wind or cold weather) and transients (water hammer, electrical transients both internal and external) have also been found to be important sources of dependency that may

Detecting failure events in buildings: a numerical and experimental analysis

OpenAIRE

Heckman, V. M.; Kohler, M. D.; Heaton, T. H.

2010-01-01

A numerical method is used to investigate an approach for detecting the brittle fracture of welds associated with beam -column connections in instrumented buildings in real time through the use of time-reversed Green’s functions and wave propagation reciprocity. The approach makes use of a prerecorded catalog of Green’s functions for an instrumented building to detect failure events in the building during a later seismic event by screening continuous data for the presence of wavef...

Selection of important initiating events for Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment study at Puspati TRIGA Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maskin, M.; Charlie, F.; Hassan, A.; Prak Tom, P.; Ramli, Z.; Mohamed, F.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Identifying possible important initiating events (IEs) for Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment performed on research nuclear reactor. • Methods in screening and grouping IEs are addressed. • Focusing only on internal IEs due to random failures of components. - Abstract: This paper attempts to present the results in identifying possible important initiating events (IEs) as comprehensive as possible to be applied in the development of Level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) study. This involves the approaches in listing and the methods in screening and grouping IEs, by focusing only on the internal IEs due to random failures of components and human errors with full power operational conditions and reactor core as the radioactivity source. Five approaches were applied in listing the IEs and each step of the methodology was described and commented. The criteria in screening and grouping the IEs were also presented. The results provided the information on how the Malaysian PSA team applied the approaches in selecting the most probable IEs as complete as possible in order to ensure the set of IEs was identified systematically and as representative as possible, hence providing confidence to the completeness of the PSA study. This study is perhaps one of the first to address classic comprehensive steps in identifying important IEs to be used in a Level-1 PSA study.

Serum albumin level predicts initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment failure in Kawasaki disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Ho-Chang; Liang, Chi-Di; Wang, Chih-Lu; Yu, Hong-Ren; Hwang, Kao-Pin; Yang, Kuender D

2010-10-01

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis primarily affecting children who are initial IVIG treatment. This study was conducted to investigate the risk factors for initial IVIG treatment failure in KD. Children who met KD diagnosis criteria and were admitted for IVIG treatment were retrospectively enrolled for analysis. Patients were divided into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. Initial laboratory data before IVIG treatment were collected for analysis. A total of 131 patients were enrolled during the study period. At 48 h after completion of initial IVIG treatment, 20 patients (15.3%) had an elevated body temperature. Univariate analysis showed that patients who had initial findings of high neutrophil count, abnormal liver function, low serum albumin level (≤2.9 g/dL) and pericardial effusion were at risk for IVIG treatment failure. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression procedure showed that serum albumin level was considered the independent predicting factor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD (p = 0.006, OR = 40, 95% CI: 52.8-562). There was no significant correlation between age, gender, fever duration before IVIG treatment, haemoglobin level, total leucocyte and platelet counts, C-reactive protein level, or sterile pyuria and initial IVIG treatment failure. The specificity and sensitivity for prediction of IVIG treatment failure in this study were 96% and 34%, respectively. Pre-IVIG treatment serum albumin levels are a useful predictor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD. © 2010 The Author(s)/Journal Compilation © 2010 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Gastrointestinal events and association with initiation of treatment for osteoporosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Modi A

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Ankita Modi,1 Ethel S Siris,2 Jackson Tang,3 Shiva Sajjan,1 Shuvayu S Sen1 1Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, Merck & Co., Inc, Kenilworth, NJ, 2Toni Stabile Osteoporosis Center, Columbia University Medical Center, NY Presbyterian Hospital, New York, NY, 3Asclepius Analytics Ltd, Brooklyn, NY, USA Background: Preexisting gastrointestinal (GI events may deter the use of pharmacologic treatment in patients diagnosed with osteoporosis (OP. The objective of this study was to examine the association between preexisting GI events and OP pharmacotherapy initiation among women diagnosed with OP. Methods: The study utilized claims data from a large US managed care database to identify women aged ≥55 years with a diagnosis code for OP (index date during 2002–2009. Patients with a claim for pharmacologic OP treatment in the 12-month pre-index period (baseline were excluded. OP treatment initiation in the post-index period was defined as a claim for bisphosphonates (alendronate, ibandronate, risedronate, zoledronic acid, calcitonin, raloxifene, or teriparatide. During the post-index period (up to 12 months, GI events were identified before treatment initiation. A time-dependent Cox regression model was used to investigate the likelihood of initiating any OP treatment. Among patients initiating OP treatment, a discrete choice model was utilized to assess the relationship between post-index GI events and likelihood of initiating with a bisphosphonate versus a non-bisphosphonate. Results: In total, 65,344 patients (mean age 66 years were included; 23.7% had a GI event post diagnosis and before treatment initiation. Post-index GI events were associated with a 75% lower likelihood of any treatment initiation (hazard ratio 0.25; 95% confidence interval 0.24–0.26. Among treated patients (n=23,311, those with post-index GI events were 39% less likely to receive a bisphosphonate versus a non-bisphosphonate (odds ratio 0.61; 95% confidence

The analysis of the initiating events in thorium-based molten salt reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuo Jiaxu; Song Wei; Jing Jianping; Zhang Chunming

2014-01-01

The initiation events analysis and evaluation were the beginning of nuclear safety analysis and probabilistic safety analysis, and it was the key points of the nuclear safety analysis. Currently, the initiation events analysis method and experiences both focused on water reactor, but no methods and theories for thorium-based molten salt reactor (TMSR). With TMSR's research and development in China, the initiation events analysis and evaluation was increasingly important. The research could be developed from the PWR analysis theories and methods. Based on the TMSR's design, the theories and methods of its initiation events analysis could be researched and developed. The initiation events lists and analysis methods of the two or three generation PWR, high-temperature gascooled reactor and sodium-cooled fast reactor were summarized. Based on the TMSR's design, its initiation events would be discussed and developed by the logical analysis. The analysis of TMSR's initiation events was preliminary studied and described. The research was important to clarify the events analysis rules, and useful to TMSR's designs and nuclear safety analysis. (authors)

Initiating Event Rates at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants. 1988 - 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroeder, John A.; Bower, Gordon R.

2014-01-01

Analyzing initiating event rates is important because it indicates performance among plants and also provides inputs to several U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk-informed regulatory activities. This report presents an analysis of initiating event frequencies at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants since each plant's low-power license date. The evaluation is based on the operating experience from fiscal year 1988 through 2013 as reported in licensee event reports. Engineers with nuclear power plant experience staff reviewed each event report since the last update to this report for the presence of valid scrams or reactor trips at power. To be included in the study, an event had to meet all of the following criteria: includes an unplanned reactor trip (not a scheduled reactor trip on the daily operations schedule), sequence of events starts when reactor is critical and at or above the point of adding heat, occurs at a U.S. commercial nuclear power plant (excluding Fort St. Vrain and LaCrosse), and is reported by a licensee event report. This report displays occurrence rates (baseline frequencies) for the categories of initiating events that contribute to the NRC's Industry Trends Program. Sixteen initiating event groupings are trended and displayed. Initiators are plotted separately for initiating events with different occurrence rates for boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. p-values are given for the possible presence of a trend over the most recent 10 years.

Analysis of events with common cause failures (CCF) from the international common cause failure date exchange (ICDE); Analyse von Ereignissen mit gemeinsam verursachten Ausfaellen (GVA) aus dem internationalen GVA-Datenaustauschprojekt ICDE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brueck, Benjamin; Kreuser, Albert; Simon, Julia; Stiller, Jan

2014-08-15

Common-cause-failure (CCF) events can significantly impact the availability of safety systems of nuclear power plants. In recognition of this, CCF data are systematically being collected and analyzed in several countries. A comprehensive evaluation of CCF events derived only from the operating experience in German nuclear power plants is not sufficient due to the low probability of occurrence of such events. Therefore it is necessary to make use of the operating experience of other countries using similar technology. In order to be able to use the CCF operating experience from other countries in the aim to carry on the development of the bases for evaluation of CCF GRS decisively co-initiated the setting up of an international common-cause failure working group. This working group has elaborated the project ''International Common-Cause Failure Data Exchange'' (ICDE). The project's objective is to organize a broad exchange of information concerning observed events with relevance to common-cause failures. The tasks for preparation and evaluation of information of the ICDE working group serve for confirmation and extension of the common-cause failure knowledge with regards to probabilistic safety analyses, the better understanding of causes and mechanisms of common-cause failures and the evaluation of preventive measures against the occurrence of common-cause failures. The objectives of the exchange on a long term basis are to - improve the comprehension of CCF events and their causes and their prevention, - generate qualitative insights into the root causes of CCF events which can then be used to derive and assess preventive measures against the occurrence of such events or their consequences, - establish an efficient feedback of experience gained in connection with observed common-cause failure phenomena which could be used e.g. for the development of indicators for risk based inspections, - provide quantitative information regarding the

Enhanced stability of steep channel beds to mass failure and debris flow initiation

Science.gov (United States)

Prancevic, J.; Lamb, M. P.; Ayoub, F.; Venditti, J. G.

2015-12-01

Debris flows dominate bedrock erosion and sediment transport in very steep mountain channels, and are often initiated from failure of channel-bed alluvium during storms. While several theoretical models exist to predict mass failures, few have been tested because observations of in-channel bed failures are extremely limited. To fill this gap in our understanding, we performed laboratory flume experiments to identify the conditions necessary to initiate bed failures in non-cohesive sediment of different sizes (D = 0.7 mm to 15 mm) on steep channel-bed slopes (S = 0.45 to 0.93) and in the presence of water flow. In beds composed of sand, failures occurred under sub-saturated conditions on steep bed slopes (S > 0.5) and under super-saturated conditions at lower slopes. In beds of gravel, however, failures occurred only under super-saturated conditions at all tested slopes, even those approaching the dry angle of repose. Consistent with theoretical models, mass failures under super-saturated conditions initiated along a failure plane approximately one grain-diameter below the bed surface, whereas the failure plane was located near the base of the bed under sub-saturated conditions. However, all experimental beds were more stable than predicted by 1-D infinite-slope stability models. In partially saturated sand, enhanced stability appears to result from suction stress. Enhanced stability in gravel may result from turbulent energy losses in pores or increased granular friction for failures that are shallow with respect to grain size. These grain-size dependent effects are not currently included in stability models for non-cohesive sediment, and they may help to explain better the timing and location of debris flow occurrence.

Pellet-Cladding Mechanical Interaction Failure Threshold for Reactivity Initiated Accidents for Pressurized Water Reactors and Boiling Water Reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beyer, Carl E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Geelhood, Kenneth J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2013-06-01

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been requested by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to evaluate the reactivity initiated accident (RIA) tests that have recently been performed in the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) and CABRI (French research reactor) on uranium dioxide (UO₂) and mixed uranium and plutonium dioxide (MOX) fuels, and to propose pellet-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) failure thresholds for RIA events. This report discusses how PNNL developed PCMI failure thresholds for RIA based on least squares (LSQ) regression fits to the RIA test data from cold-worked stress relief annealed (CWSRA) and recrystallized annealed (RXA) cladding alloys under pressurized water reactor (PWR) hot zero power (HZP) conditions and boiling water reactor (BWR) cold zero power (CZP) conditions.

Analysis of early initiating event(s) in radiation-induced thymic lymphomagenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muto, Masahiro; Ying Chen; Kubo, Eiko; Mita, Kazuei

1996-01-01

Since the T cell receptor rearrangement is a sequential process and unique to the progeny of each clone, we investigated the early initiating events in radiation-induced thymic lymphomagenesis by comparing the oncogenic alterations with the pattern of γ T cell receptor (TCR) rearrangements. We reported previously that after leukemogenic irradiation, preneoplastic cells developed, albeit infrequently, from thymic leukemia antigen-2 + (TL-2 + ) thymocytes. Limited numbers of TL-2 + cells from individual irradiated B10.Thy-1.1 mice were injected into B10.Thy-1.2 mice intrathymically, and the common genetic changes among the donor-type T cell lymphomas were investigated with regard to p53 gene and chromosome aberrations. The results indicated that some mutations in the p53 gene had taken place in these lymphomas, but there was no common mutation among the donor-type lymphomas from individual irradiated mice, suggesting that these mutations were late-occurring events in the process of oncogenesis. On the other hand, there were common chromosome aberrations or translocations such as trisomy 15, t(7F; 10C), t(1A; 13D) or t(6A; XB) among the donor-type lymphomas derived from half of the individual irradiated mice. This indicated that the aberrations/translocations, which occurred in single progenitor cells at the early T cell differentiation either just before or after γ T cell receptor rearrangements, might be important candidates for initiating events. In the donor-type lymphomas from the other half of the individual irradiated mice, microgenetic changes were suggested to be initial events and also might take place in single progenitor cells just before or right after γ TCR rearrangements. (author)

Complex bladder-exstrophy-epispadias management: Causes of failure of initial bladder closure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kouame Dibi Bertin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The success of the initial closure of the complex bladder-exstrophy remains a challenge in pediatric surgery. This study describes a personal experience of the causes of failure of the initial closure and operative morbidity during the surgical treatment of bladder-exstrophy complex. From April 2000 to March 2014, four patients aged 16 days to 7 years and 5 months underwent complex exstrophy-epispadias repair with pelvic osteotomies. There were three males and one female. Three of them had posterior pelvic osteotomy, one had anterior innominate osteotomy. Bladder Closure: Bladder closure was performed in three layers. Our first patient had initial bladder closure with polyglactin 4/0 (Vicryl ® 4/0, concerning the last three patients, initial bladder closure was performed with polydioxanone 4/0 (PDS ® 4/0. The bladder was repaired leaving the urethral stent and ureteral stents for full urinary drainage for three patients. In one case, only urethral stent was left, ureteral drainage was not possible, because stents sizes were more important than the ureteral diameter. Out of a total of four patients, initial bladder closure was completely achieved for three patients. At the immediate postoperative follow-up, two patients presented a complete disunion of the abdominal wall and bladder despite an appropriate postoperative care. The absorbable braided silk (polyglactin used for the bladder closure was considered as the main factor in the failure of the bladder closure. The second cause of failure of the initial bladder closure was the incomplete urine drainage, ureteral catheterisation was not possible because the catheters sizes were too large compared with the diameters of the ureters. The failure of the initial bladder-exstrophy closure may be reduced by a closure with an absorbable monofilament silk and efficient urine drainage via ureteral catheterisation.

Treatment of external events in the linked event tree methodology NPP Goesgen - Daeniken example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kozlik, Thomas

2014-01-01

The NPP Goesgen-Daeniken uses a combined level 1 / level 2 PSA model for its event analyses. The model uses a linked event tree approach, using the software RISKMAN R . Each initiating event passes through a modularized event tree structure, consisting of external events pre-trees, alignment and support systems trees and front-line and containment response trees. This paper explains the structure of the linked event trees. Switches are used to bypass certain trees for specific initiating events. The screening process applied to possible external events is explained. The final scope of considered natural external events in the Goesgen PSA consists of earthquakes, seasonal events causing cooling water intake plugging or external floods. The structure of the natural external events pre-trees is explained. The treatment of external floods is explained in more detail. Floods at the Goesgen site are caused by extreme river flows into the old branch of the Aare river. A new model has been developed to analyse the probabilistic flood hazard using a bivariate distribution (water level and flood duration). Analysing the statistical data, the time trend had to be considered. The Goesgen PSA models 7 external flood initiating events, considering different water levels and durations at the flooded plant site. The building fragilities were developed in terms of resistance times. The RISKMAN R external flood pre-tree consists of top events for operator actions and failure of the building functions, which leads to the functional failure of equipment located at the lower elevation of the building. (author)

Assessment of the impact of fueling machine failure on the safety of the CANDU-PHWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Kusayer, T.A.

1982-01-01

A survey of possible LOCA (Loss-of-Coolant Accident) initiating events that might take place for CANDU-PHWRs (Canadian Deuterium Uranium-Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors) has been conducted covering both direct and indirect initiators. Among the 22 initiating events that were surveyed in this study, four direct initiators have been selected and analyzed briefly. Those selected were a pump suction piping break, an isolation valve piping break, a bleed valve failure, and a fueling machine interface failure. These were selected as examples of failures that could take place in the inlet side, outlet side, or PHTS (Primary Heat Transport System) interfaces. The Pickering NGS (Unit-A) was used for this case study. Double failure (failure of the protective devices to operate when the process equipment fault occurs) and a triple failure (failure of the protective devices and the ECCS as well as the process equipment) were found to be highly improbable

Selection of initial events of accelerator driven subcritical system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Qianglong; Hu Liqin; Wang Jiaqun; Li Yazhou; Yang Zhiyi

2013-01-01

The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an important tool in reactor safety analysis and a significant reference to the design and operation of reactor. It is the origin and foundation of the PSA for a reactor to select the initial events. Accelerator Driven Subcritical System (ADS) has advanced design characteristics, complicated subsystems and little engineering and operating experience, which makes it much more difficult to identify the initial events of ADS. Based on the current design project of ADS, the system's safety characteristics and special issues were analyzed in this article. After a series of deductions with Master Logic Diagram (MLD) and considering the relating experience of other advanced research reactors, a preliminary initial events was listed finally, which provided the foundation for the next safety assessment. (authors)

Mechanisms of initial endplate failure in the human vertebral body.

Science.gov (United States)

Fields, Aaron J; Lee, Gideon L; Keaveny, Tony M

2010-12-01

Endplate failure occurs frequently in osteoporotic vertebral fractures and may be related to the development of high tensile strain. To determine whether the highest tensile strains in the vertebra occur in the endplates, and whether such high tensile strains are associated with the material behavior of the intervertebral disc, we used micro-CT-based finite element analysis to assess tissue-level strains in 22 elderly human vertebrae (81.5 ± 9.6 years) that were compressed through simulated intervertebral discs. In each vertebra, we compared the highest tensile and compressive strains across the different compartments: endplates, cortical shell, and trabecular bone. The influence of Poisson-type expansion of the disc on the results was determined by compressing the vertebrae a second time in which we suppressed the Poisson expansion. We found that the highest tensile strains occurred within the endplates whereas the highest compressive strains occurred within the trabecular bone. The ratio of strain to assumed tissue-level yield strain was the highest for the endplates, indicating that the endplates had the greatest risk of initial failure. Suppressing the Poisson expansion of the disc decreased the amount of highly tensile-strained tissue in the endplates by 79.4 ± 11.3%. These results indicate that the endplates are at the greatest risk of initial failure due to the development of high tensile strains, and that such high tensile strains are associated with the Poisson expansion of the disc. We conclude that initial failure of the vertebra is associated with high tensile strains in the endplates, which in turn are influenced by the material behavior of the disc. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of strength and failure of brittle rock containing initial cracks under lithospheric conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaozhao; Qi, Chengzhi; Shao, Zhushan; Ma, Chao

2018-02-01

Natural brittle rock contains numerous randomly distributed microcracks. Crack initiation, growth, and coalescence play a predominant role in evaluation for the strength and failure of brittle rocks. A new analytical method is proposed to predict the strength and failure of brittle rocks containing initial microcracks. The formulation of this method is based on an improved wing crack model and a suggested micro-macro relation. In this improved wing crack model, the parameter of crack angle is especially introduced as a variable, and the analytical stress-crack relation considering crack angle effect is obtained. Coupling the proposed stress-crack relation and the suggested micro-macro relation describing the relation between crack growth and axial strain, the stress-strain constitutive relation is obtained to predict the rock strength and failure. Considering different initial microcrack sizes, friction coefficients and confining pressures, effects of crack angle on tensile wedge force acting on initial crack interface are studied, and effects of crack angle on stress-strain constitutive relation of rocks are also analyzed. The strength and crack initiation stress under different crack angles are discussed, and the value of most disadvantaged angle triggering crack initiation and rock failure is founded. The analytical results are similar to the published study results. Rationality of this proposed analytical method is verified.

Baseline Hemodynamics and Response to Contrast Media During Diagnostic Cardiac Catheterization Predict Adverse Events in Heart Failure Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Denardo, Scott J; Vock, David M; Schmalfuss, Carsten M; Young, Gregory D; Tcheng, James E; O'Connor, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Contrast media administered during cardiac catheterization can affect hemodynamic variables. However, little is documented about the effects of contrast on hemodynamics in heart failure patients or the prognostic value of baseline and changes in hemodynamics for predicting subsequent adverse events. In this prospective study of 150 heart failure patients, we measured hemodynamics at baseline and after administration of iodixanol or iopamidol contrast. One-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of adverse event-free survival (death, heart failure hospitalization, and rehospitalization) were generated, grouping patients by baseline measures of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and cardiac index (CI), and by changes in those measures after contrast administration. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess sequentially adding baseline PCWP and change in CI to 5 validated risk models (Seattle Heart Failure Score, ESCAPE [Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness], CHARM [Candesartan in Heart Failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity], CORONA [Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure], and MAGGIC [Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure]). Median contrast volume was 109 mL. Both contrast media caused similarly small but statistically significant changes in most hemodynamic variables. There were 39 adverse events (26.0%). Adverse event rates increased using the composite metric of baseline PCWP and change in CI (Pcontrast correlated with the poorest prognosis. Adding both baseline PCWP and change in CI to the 5 risk models universally improved their predictive value (P≤0.02). In heart failure patients, the administration of contrast causes small but significant changes in hemodynamics. Calculating baseline PCWP with change in CI after contrast predicts adverse events and increases the predictive value of existing models. Patients with elevated baseline PCWP and

Adverse cardiac events in out-patients initiating clozapine treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rohde, C; Polcwiartek, C; Kragholm, K

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Using national Danish registers, we estimated rates of clozapine-associated cardiac adverse events. Rates of undiagnosed myocarditis were estimated by exploring causes of death after clozapine initiation. METHOD: Through nationwide health registers, we identified all out-patients initi......OBJECTIVE: Using national Danish registers, we estimated rates of clozapine-associated cardiac adverse events. Rates of undiagnosed myocarditis were estimated by exploring causes of death after clozapine initiation. METHOD: Through nationwide health registers, we identified all out...... the maximum rate of clozapine-associated fatal myocarditis to 0.28%. CONCLUSION: Cardiac adverse effects in Danish out-patients initiating clozapine treatment are extremely rare and these rates appear to be comparable to those observed for other antipsychotic drugs....

An integrated approach to estimate storage reliability with initial failures based on E-Bayesian estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yongjin; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Shitao; Wang, Jiamei; Zhang, Yanjun

2017-01-01

Storage reliability that measures the ability of products in a dormant state to keep their required functions is studied in this paper. For certain types of products, Storage reliability may not always be 100% at the beginning of storage, unlike the operational reliability, which exist possible initial failures that are normally neglected in the models of storage reliability. In this paper, a new integrated technique, the non-parametric measure based on the E-Bayesian estimates of current failure probabilities is combined with the parametric measure based on the exponential reliability function, is proposed to estimate and predict the storage reliability of products with possible initial failures, where the non-parametric method is used to estimate the number of failed products and the reliability at each testing time, and the parameter method is used to estimate the initial reliability and the failure rate of storage product. The proposed method has taken into consideration that, the reliability test data of storage products containing the unexamined before and during the storage process, is available for providing more accurate estimates of both the initial failure probability and the storage failure probability. When storage reliability prediction that is the main concern in this field should be made, the non-parametric estimates of failure numbers can be used into the parametric models for the failure process in storage. In the case of exponential models, the assessment and prediction method for storage reliability is presented in this paper. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the method. Furthermore, a detailed comparison between the proposed and traditional method, for examining the rationality of assessment and prediction on the storage reliability, is investigated. The results should be useful for planning a storage environment, decision-making concerning the maximum length of storage, and identifying the production quality. - Highlights: �

Failure initiation and propagation of Li4SiO4 pebbles in fusion blankets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Shuo; Gan Yixiang; Kamlah, Marc

2013-01-01

Lithium orthosilicate (Li 4 SiO 4 ) pebbles are considered to be a candidate as solid tritium breeder in the helium cooled pebble bed (HCPB) blanket. These ceramic pebbles might be crushed during thermomechanical loading in the blanket. In this work, the failure initiation and propagation of pebbles in pebble beds is investigated using the discrete element method (DEM). Pebbles are simplified as mono-sized elastic spheres. Every pebble has a contact strength in terms of critical strain energy, which is derived from a validated strength model and crush test data for pebbles from a specific batch of Li 4 SiO 4 pebbles. Pebble beds are compressed uniaxially and triaxially in DEM simulations. When the strain energy absorbed by a pebble exceeds its critical energy it fails. The failure initiation is defined as a given small fraction of pebbles crushed. It is found that the load level for failure initiation can be very low. For example, if failure initiation is defined as soon as 0.02% of the pebbles have been crushed, the pressure required for uniaxial loading is about 2.5 MPa. Therefore, it is essential to study the influence of failure propagation on the macroscopic response of pebble beds. Thus a reduction ratio defined as the size ratio of a pebble before and after its failure is introduced. The macroscopic stress–strain relation is investigated with different reduction ratios. A typical stress plateau is found for a small reduction ratio.

Potential for fuel melting and cladding thermal failure during a PCM event in LWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Genk, M.S.; Croucher, D.W.

1979-01-01

The primary concern in nuclear reactor safety is to ensure that no conceivable accident, whether initiated by a failure of the reactor system or by incorrect operation, will lead to a dangerous release of radiation to the environment. A number of hypothesized off-normal power or cooling conditions, generally termed as power-cooling-mismatch (PCM) accidents, are considered in the safety analysis of light water reactors (LWRs). During a PCM accident, film boiling may occur at the cladding surface and cause a rapid temperature increase in the fuel and the cladding, perhaps producing embrittlement of the zircaloy cladding by oxidation. Molten fuel may be produced at the center of the pellets, extrude radially through open cracks in the outer, unmelted portion of the pellet and relocate in the fuel-cladding gap. If the amount of extruded molten fuel is sufficient to establish contact with the cladding, which is at a high temperature during film boiling, the zircaloy cladding may melt. The present work assesses the potential for central fuel melting and thermal failure of the zircaloy cladding due to melting upon being contacted by extruded molten UO 2 -fuel during a PCM event

The antioxidant acetylcysteine reduces cardiovascular events in patients with end-stage renal failure: a randomized, controlled trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tepel, Martin; van der Giet, Markus; Statz, Mario

2003-01-01

Patients with end-stage renal failure have increased oxidative stress and show elevated cardiovascular mortality. Whether increased cardiovascular events can be prevented by the administration of antioxidants is unknown.......Patients with end-stage renal failure have increased oxidative stress and show elevated cardiovascular mortality. Whether increased cardiovascular events can be prevented by the administration of antioxidants is unknown....

Initiating events in the safety probabilistic analysis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stasiulevicius, R.

1989-01-01

The importance of the initiating event in the probabilistic safety analysis of nuclear power plants are discussed and the basic procedures necessary for preparing reports, quantification and grouping of the events are described. The examples of initiating events with its occurence medium frequency, included those calculated for OCONEE reactor and Angra-1 reactor are presented. (E.G.)

Heart Failure: Diagnosis, Severity Estimation and Prediction of Adverse Events Through Machine Learning Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evanthia E. Tripoliti

Full Text Available Heart failure is a serious condition with high prevalence (about 2% in the adult population in developed countries, and more than 8% in patients older than 75 years. About 3–5% of hospital admissions are linked with heart failure incidents. Heart failure is the first cause of admission by healthcare professionals in their clinical practice. The costs are very high, reaching up to 2% of the total health costs in the developed countries. Building an effective disease management strategy requires analysis of large amount of data, early detection of the disease, assessment of the severity and early prediction of adverse events. This will inhibit the progression of the disease, will improve the quality of life of the patients and will reduce the associated medical costs. Toward this direction machine learning techniques have been employed. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-the-art of the machine learning methodologies applied for the assessment of heart failure. More specifically, models predicting the presence, estimating the subtype, assessing the severity of heart failure and predicting the presence of adverse events, such as destabilizations, re-hospitalizations, and mortality are presented. According to the authors' knowledge, it is the first time that such a comprehensive review, focusing on all aspects of the management of heart failure, is presented. Keywords: Heart failure, Diagnosis, Prediction, Severity estimation, Classification, Data mining

Initiation of Failure for Masonry Subject to In-Plane Loads through Micromechanics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. P. Berardi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A micromechanical procedure is used in order to evaluate the initiation of damage and failure of masonry with in-plane loads. Masonry material is viewed as a composite with periodic microstructure and, therefore, a unit cell with suitable boundary conditions is assumed as a representative volume element of the masonry. The finite element method is used to determine the average stress on the unit cell corresponding to a given average strain prescribed on the unit cell. Finally, critical curves representing the initiation of damage and failure in both clay brick masonry and adobe masonry are provided.

ES-RBE Event sequence reliability Benchmark exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poucet, A.E.J.

1991-01-01

The event Sequence Reliability Benchmark Exercise (ES-RBE) can be considered as a logical extension of the other three Reliability Benchmark Exercices : the RBE on Systems Analysis, the RBE on Common Cause Failures and the RBE on Human Factors. The latter, constituting Activity No. 1, was concluded by the end of 1987. The ES-RBE covered the techniques that are currently used for analysing and quantifying sequences of events starting from an initiating event to various plant damage states, including analysis of various system failures and/or successes, human intervention failure and/or success and dependencies between systems. By this way, one of the scopes of the ES-RBE was to integrate the experiences gained in the previous exercises

Initiating events of accidents in the practice of oil well logging in Cuba

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alles Leal, A.; Perez Reyes, Y.; Dumenigo Gonzalez, C.

2013-01-01

The oil well logging is an extremely important activity within the oil industry, but in turn, brings risks that occasionally result in damage to health, the environment and economic losses. In this context, risk analysis has become an important tool to control them through their prediction and the study of the factors that determine them, enabling substantiated decisions to, first, foresee accidents and, secondly, to minimize their consequences. This paper proposes the elaboration of a list of initiating events of accidents in the practice of oil well logging which is one of the most important aspects for further evaluation of radiation safety of this practice. For its determination the technique employed to identify risks was 'Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)' by applying it to the different stages and processes of practice. (Author)

Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

1980-01-01

This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

Non-selective beta-blockers decrease thrombotic events in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Peuter, Olav R.; Souverein, Patrick C.; Klungel, Olaf H.; Lip, Gregory Y.; Buller, Harry R.; De Boer, Anthonius; Kamphuisen, Pieter W.

2010-01-01

Background: Beta-blockers are often prescribed to patients with heart failure (HF) without distinctions between types of beta-blockers. The 2002 COMET study showed superiority of carvedilol (a non-selective beta-blocker) over metoprolol (selective beta-blocker) on mortality and cardiovascular events

Preliminary failure modes and effects analysis on Korean HCCR TBS to be tested in ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Mu-Young; Cho, Seungyon; Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Dong Won; Park, Yi-Hyun; Lee, Youngmin

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Postulated initiating events are identified through failure modes and effects analysis on the current HCCR TBS design. • A set of postulated initiating events are selected for consideration of deterministic analysis. • Accident evolutions on the selected postualted initiating events are qualitatively described for deterministic analysis. - Abstract: Korean Helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) Test blanket system (TBS), which comprises Test blanket module (TBM) and ancillary systems in various locations of ITER building, is operated at high temperature and pressure with decay heat. Therefore, safety is utmost concern in design process and it is required to demonstrate that the HCCR TBS is designed to comply with the safety requirements and guidelines of ITER. Due to complexity of the system with many interfaces with ITER, a systematic approach is necessary for safety analysis. This paper presents preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) study performed for the HCCR TBS. FMEA is a systematic methodology in which failure modes for components in the system and their consequences are studied from the bottom-up. Over eighty failure modes have been investigated on the HCCR TBS. The failure modes that have similar consequences are grouped as postulated initiating events (PIEs) and total seven reference accident scenarios are derived from FMEA study for deterministic accident analysis. Failure modes not covered here due to evolving design of the HCCR TBS and uncertainty in maintenance procedures will be studied further in near future.

Preliminary failure modes and effects analysis on Korean HCCR TBS to be tested in ITER

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahn, Mu-Young, E-mail: myahn74@nfri.re.kr [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Seungyon [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jin, Hyung Gon; Lee, Dong Won [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Park, Yi-Hyun; Lee, Youngmin [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

Highlights: • Postulated initiating events are identified through failure modes and effects analysis on the current HCCR TBS design. • A set of postulated initiating events are selected for consideration of deterministic analysis. • Accident evolutions on the selected postualted initiating events are qualitatively described for deterministic analysis. - Abstract: Korean Helium cooled ceramic reflector (HCCR) Test blanket system (TBS), which comprises Test blanket module (TBM) and ancillary systems in various locations of ITER building, is operated at high temperature and pressure with decay heat. Therefore, safety is utmost concern in design process and it is required to demonstrate that the HCCR TBS is designed to comply with the safety requirements and guidelines of ITER. Due to complexity of the system with many interfaces with ITER, a systematic approach is necessary for safety analysis. This paper presents preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) study performed for the HCCR TBS. FMEA is a systematic methodology in which failure modes for components in the system and their consequences are studied from the bottom-up. Over eighty failure modes have been investigated on the HCCR TBS. The failure modes that have similar consequences are grouped as postulated initiating events (PIEs) and total seven reference accident scenarios are derived from FMEA study for deterministic accident analysis. Failure modes not covered here due to evolving design of the HCCR TBS and uncertainty in maintenance procedures will be studied further in near future.

Initial data collection efforts of CREDO. Sodium valve failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Haas, P.M.

1978-01-01

The Centralized Reliability Data organisation (CREDO) has been established at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to define, develop, and maintain a reliability data analysis center for use in advanced reactor safety and licensing. Its primary functions are collection, reduction, evaluation, storage, retrieval, and dissemination of reliability/maintainability data. Data-collection efforts have been initiated at several test loops, at the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II and at the Fast Flux Test Facility. Top priority is being given to collection data on safety and safety-related systems, primarily for sodium-cooled reactors. Sufficient operating time has been accumulated on sodium valves at test facilities to provide quantitative estimates of reliability characteristics with a reasonable degree of confidence. Sodium-valve failures have been categorized according to seat design, size, seal type, and actuator type. Attempts have been made to establish the variation of failure rate with time and duty. Estimates of failure rates for sodium valves have been compared to those for water valves and appear to be of the same order of magnitude. (author)

Determination of Component Failure Modes for a Fire PSA by Using Decision Trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Han, Sang Hoon; Lim, Jae Won

2007-01-01

KAERI developed the method, called a mapping technique, for the quantification of external events PSA models with one top model for an internal events PSA. The mapping technique can be implemented by the construction of mapping tables. The mapping tables include initiating events and transfer events of fire, and internal PSA basic events affected by a fire. This year, KAERI is making mapping tables for the one top model for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 fire PSA with previously conducted Fire PSA results for Ulchin Unit 3 and 4. A Fire PSA requires a PSA analyst to determine component failure modes affected by a fire. The component failure modes caused by a fire depend on several factors. These several factors are whether components are located at fire initiation and propagation areas or not, fire effects on control and power cables for components, designed failure modes of components, success criteria in a PSA model, etc. Thus, it is not easy to manually determine component failure modes caused by a fire. In this paper, we propose the use of decision trees for the determination of component failure modes affected by a fire and the selection of internal PSA basic events. Section 2 presents the procedure for previously performed the Ulchin Unit 3 and 4 fire PSA and mapping technique. Section 3 presents the process for identification of basic events and decision trees. Section 4 presents the concluding remarks

Size distributions and failure initiation of submarine and subaerial landslides

Science.gov (United States)

ten Brink, Uri S.; Barkan, R.; Andrews, B.D.; Chaytor, J.D.

2009-01-01

affected by subaerial landslides is comparable to that calculated by slope stability analysis for submarine landslides. The area distribution of subaerial landslides from a single event may be determined by the size distribution of the morphology of the affected area, not by the initiation process. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Initiating events and accidental sequences taken into account in the CAREM reactor design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kay, J.M.; Felizia, E.R.; Navarro, N.R.; Caruso, G.J.

1990-01-01

The advance made in the nuclear security evaluation of the CAREM reactor is presented. It was carried out using the Security Probabilistic Analysis (SPA). The latter takes into account the different phases of identification and solution of initiating events and the qualitative development of event trees. The method of identification of initiating events is the Master Logical Diagram (MLD), whose deductive basis makes it appropriate for a new design like the one described. The qualitative development of the event trees associated to the identified initiating events, allows identification of those accidental sequences which are to have the security systems in the reactor. (Author) [es

Preoperative short hookwire placement for small pulmonary lesions: evaluation of technical success and risk factors for initial placement failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Iguchi, Toshihiro; Hiraki, Takao; Matsui, Yusuke; Fujiwara, Hiroyasu; Masaoka, Yoshihisa; Tanaka, Takashi; Sato, Takuya; Gobara, Hideo; Toyooka, Shinichi; Kanazawa, Susumu

2018-05-01

To retrospectively evaluate the technical success of computed tomography fluoroscopy-guided short hookwire placement before video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery and to identify the risk factors for initial placement failure. In total, 401 short hookwire placements for 401 lesions (mean diameter 9.3 mm) were reviewed. Technical success was defined as correct positioning of the hookwire. Possible risk factors for initial placement failure (i.e., requirement for placement of an additional hookwire or to abort the attempt) were evaluated using logistic regression analysis for all procedures, and for procedures performed via the conventional route separately. Of the 401 initial placements, 383 were successful and 18 failed. Short hookwires were finally placed for 399 of 401 lesions (99.5%). Univariate logistic regression analyses revealed that in all 401 procedures only the transfissural approach was a significant independent predictor of initial placement failure (odds ratio, OR, 15.326; 95% confidence interval, CI, 5.429-43.267; p < 0.001) and for the 374 procedures performed via the conventional route only lesion size was a significant independent predictor of failure (OR 0.793, 95% CI 0.631-0.996; p = 0.046). The technical success of preoperative short hookwire placement was extremely high. The transfissural approach was a predictor initial placement failure for all procedures and small lesion size was a predictor of initial placement failure for procedures performed via the conventional route. • Technical success of preoperative short hookwire placement was extremely high. • The transfissural approach was a significant independent predictor of initial placement failure for all procedures. • Small lesion size was a significant independent predictor of initial placement failure for procedures performed via the conventional route.

Initiating Events for Multi-Reactor Plant Sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Flanagan, George F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Poore, III, Willis P. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2014-09-01

Inherent in the design of modular reactors is the increased likelihood of events that initiate at a single reactor affecting another reactor. Because of the increased level of interactions between reactors, it is apparent that the Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) for modular reactor designs need to specifically address the increased interactions and dependencies.

Defining initiating events for purposes of probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This document is primarily directed towards technical staff involved in the performance or review of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). It highlights different approaches and provides typical examples useful for defining the Initiating Events (IE). The document also includes the generic initiating event database, containing about 300 records taken from about 30 plant specific PSAs. In addition to its usefulness during the actual performance of a PSA, the generic IE database is of the utmost importance for peer reviews of PSAs, such as the IAEA's International Peer Review Service (IPERS) where reference to studies on similar NPPs is needed. 60 refs, figs and tabs

Impact of Pre-Initiators on PSA in Research Reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ochirbat, Chimedtseren [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sok Chul [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

Most of nuclear power plants had already conducted PSA work to examine their plant safety for identifying vulnerability and preparing the mitigating strategies for severe accident. However, the PSA for research reactor has been conducted limitedly comparing with nuclear power plants due to lack of awareness and resources. Most of PSA results demonstrated that human failure events (HFEs) take a major role of risk contributor in terms of core damage frequency. HFEs are categorized as the following three types: pre-initiating event interaction (e.g., maintenance of errors, testing errors, calibration errors), initiating event related interactions (e.g., human error causing loss of power, human error causing system trip), and post-initiating event (e.g., all action actuating manual safety system backup of an automatic system). Lack of resources and utilization of research reactor calls a vicious circle in terms of safety degradation. The safety degradation poses the vulnerability of human failure during research reactor utilization process. Typically, evaluation of pre-initiators related to test and maintenance are not taking into account in PSA for research reactors. This paper aims to investigate the impact of pre-initiating events related to test and maintenance activities on PSA results in terms of core damage frequency for a research reactor.

Impact of Pre-Initiators on PSA in Research Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ochirbat, Chimedtseren; Kim, Sok Chul

2014-01-01

Most of nuclear power plants had already conducted PSA work to examine their plant safety for identifying vulnerability and preparing the mitigating strategies for severe accident. However, the PSA for research reactor has been conducted limitedly comparing with nuclear power plants due to lack of awareness and resources. Most of PSA results demonstrated that human failure events (HFEs) take a major role of risk contributor in terms of core damage frequency. HFEs are categorized as the following three types: pre-initiating event interaction (e.g., maintenance of errors, testing errors, calibration errors), initiating event related interactions (e.g., human error causing loss of power, human error causing system trip), and post-initiating event (e.g., all action actuating manual safety system backup of an automatic system). Lack of resources and utilization of research reactor calls a vicious circle in terms of safety degradation. The safety degradation poses the vulnerability of human failure during research reactor utilization process. Typically, evaluation of pre-initiators related to test and maintenance are not taking into account in PSA for research reactors. This paper aims to investigate the impact of pre-initiating events related to test and maintenance activities on PSA results in terms of core damage frequency for a research reactor

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2010-06-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2007-08-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with “generic” component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance.

Preliminary Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of the US DCLL Test Blanket Module

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee C. Cadwallader

2007-01-01

This report presents the results of a preliminary failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a small tritium-breeding test blanket module design for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. The FMEA was quantified with 'generic' component failure rate data, and the failure events are binned into postulated initiating event families and frequency categories for safety assessment. An appendix to this report contains repair time data to support an occupational radiation exposure assessment for test blanket module maintenance

Accident analyses in nuclear power plants following external initiating events and in the shutdown state. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loeffler, Horst; Kowalik, Michael; Mildenberger, Oliver; Hage, Michael

2016-06-01

The work which is documented here provides the methodological basis for improvement of the state of knowledge for accident sequences after plant external initiating events and for accident sequences which begin in the shutdown state. The analyses have been done for a PWR and for a BWR reference plant. The work has been supported by the German federal ministry BMUB under the label 3612R01361. Top objectives of the work are: - Identify relevant event sequences in order to define characteristic initial and boundary conditions - Perform accident analysis of selected sequences - Evaluate the relevance of accident sequences in a qualitative way The accident analysis is performed with the code MELCOR 1.8.6. The applied input data set has been significantly improved compared to previous analyses. The event tree method which is established in PSA level 2 has been applied for creating a structure for a unified summarization and evaluation of the results from the accident analyses. The computer code EVNTRE has been applied for this purpose. In contrast to a PSA level 2, the branching probabilities of the event tree have not been determined with the usual accuracy, but they are given in an approximate way only. For the PWR, the analyses show a considerable protective effect of the containment also in the case of beyond design events. For the BWR, there is a rather high probability for containment failure under core melt impact, but nevertheless the release of radionuclides into the environment is very limited because of plant internal retention mechanisms. This report concludes with remarks about existing knowledge gaps and with regard to core melt sequences, and about possible improvements of the plant safety.

Methodology for Selecting Initiating Events and Hazards for Consideration in an Extended PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wielenberg, A.; Hage, M.; Loeffler, H.; Alzbutas, R.; Apostol, M.; Bareith, A.; Siklossy, T.; Brac, P.; Burgazzi, L.; Cazzoli, E.; Vitazkova, J.; Cizelj, L.; Prosek, A.; Volkanovski, A.; Hashimoto, K.; Godefroy, F.; Gonzalez, M.; Groudev, P.; Kolar, L.; Kumar, M.; Nitoi, M.; Raimond, E.

2016-01-01

An extended PSA applies to a site of one or several Nuclear Power Plant unit(s) and its environment. It intends to calculate the risk induced by the main sources of radioactivity (reactor core and spent fuel storages) on the site, taking into account all operating states for each main source and all possible relevant accident initiating events (both internal and external) affecting one unit or the whole site. The combination between hazards or initiating events and their impact on a unit or the whole site is a crucial issue for an extended PSA. The report tries to discuss relevant methodologies for this purpose. The report proposes a methodology to select initiating events and hazards for the development of an extended PSA. The proposed methodology for initiating events identification, screening and bounding analysis for an extended PSA consists of four major steps: 1. A comprehensive identification of events and hazards and their respective combinations applicable to the plant and site. Qualitative screening criteria will be applied, 2. The calculation of initial (possibly conservative) frequency claims for events and hazards and their respective combinations applicable to the plant and the site. Quantitative screening criteria will be applied, 3. An impact analysis and bounding assessment for all applicable events and scenarios. Events are either screened out from further more detailed analysis, or are assigned to a bounding event (group), or are retained for detailed analysis, 4. The probabilistic analysis of all retained (bounding) events at the appropriate level of detail. (authors)

Multivariate algorithms for initiating event detection and identification in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Shun-Chi; Chen, Kuang-You; Lin, Ting-Han; Chou, Hwai-Pwu

2018-01-01

Highlights: •Multivariate algorithms for NPP initiating event detection and identification. •Recordings from multiple sensors are simultaneously considered for detection. •Both spatial and temporal information is used for event identification. •Untrained event isolation avoids falsely relating an untrained event. •Efficacy of the algorithms is verified with data from the Maanshan NPP simulator. -- Abstract: To prevent escalation of an initiating event into a severe accident, promptly detecting its occurrence and precisely identifying its type are essential. In this study, several multivariate algorithms for initiating event detection and identification are proposed to help maintain safe operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). By monitoring changes in the NPP sensing variables, an event is detected when the preset thresholds are exceeded. Unlike existing approaches, recordings from sensors of the same type are simultaneously considered for detection, and no subjective reasoning is involved in setting these thresholds. To facilitate efficient event identification, a spatiotemporal feature extractor is proposed. The extracted features consist of the temporal traits used by existing techniques and the spatial signature of an event. Through an F-score-based feature ranking, only those that are most discriminant in classifying the events under consideration will be retained for identification. Moreover, an untrained event isolation scheme is introduced to avoid relating an untrained event to those in the event dataset so that improper recovery actions can be prevented. Results from experiments containing data of 12 event classes and a total of 125 events generated using a Taiwan’s Maanshan NPP simulator are provided to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithms.

Aspirin Does Not Increase Heart Failure Events in Heart Failure Patients: From the WARCEF Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Teerlink, John R; Qian, Min; Bello, Natalie A; Freudenberger, Ronald S; Levin, Bruce; Di Tullio, Marco R; Graham, Susan; Mann, Douglas L; Sacco, Ralph L; Mohr, J P; Lip, Gregory Y H; Labovitz, Arthur J; Lee, Seitetz C; Ponikowski, Piotr; Lok, Dirk J; Anker, Stefan D; Thompson, John L P; Homma, Shunichi

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether aspirin increases heart failure (HF) hospitalization or death in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction receiving an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB). Because of its cyclooxygenase inhibiting properties, aspirin has been postulated to increase HF events in patients treated with ACE inhibitors or ARBs. However, no large randomized trial has addressed the clinical relevance of this issue. We compared aspirin and warfarin for HF events (hospitalization, death, or both) in the 2,305 patients enrolled in the WARCEF (Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction) trial (98.6% on ACE inhibitor or ARB treatment), using conventional Cox models for time to first event (489 events). In addition, to examine multiple HF hospitalizations, we used 2 extended Cox models, a conditional model and a total time marginal model, in time to recurrent event analyses (1,078 events). After adjustment for baseline covariates, aspirin- and warfarin-treated patients did not differ in time to first HF event (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.72 to 1.04; p = 0.117) or first hospitalization alone (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.73 to 1.06; p = 0.168). The extended Cox models also found no significant differences in all HF events or in HF hospitalizations alone after adjustment for covariates. Among patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction in the WARCEF trial, there was no significant difference in risk of HF events between the aspirin and warfarin-treated patients. (Warfarin Versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction trial [WARCEF]; NCT00041938). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. All rights reserved.

Analysis of unprotected overcooling events in the Integral Fast Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vilim, R.B.

1989-01-01

Simple analytic models are developed for predicting the response of a metal fueled, liquid-metal cooled reactor to unprotected overcooling events in the balance of plant. All overcooling initiators are shown to fall into two categories. The first category contains these events for which there is no final equilibrium state of constant overcooling, as in the case for a large steam leak. These events are analyzed using a non-flow control mass approach. The second category contains those events which will eventually equilibrate, such as a loss of feedwater heaters. A steady flow control volume analysis shows that these latter events ultimately affect the plant through the feedwater inlet to the steam generator. The models developed for analyzing these two categories provide upper bounds for the reactor's passive response to overcooling accident initiators. Calculation of these bounds for a prototypic plant indicate that failure limits -- eutectic melting, sodium boiling, fuel pin failure -- are not exceeded in any overcooling event. 2 refs

Symptom-Hemodynamic Mismatch and Heart Failure Event Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Christopher S.; Hiatt, Shirin O.; Denfeld, Quin E.; Mudd, James O.; Chien, Christopher; Gelow, Jill M.

2014-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) is a heterogeneous condition of both symptoms and hemodynamics. Objective The goal of this study was to identify distinct profiles among integrated data on physical and psychological symptoms and hemodynamics, and quantify differences in 180-day event-risk among observed profiles. Methods A secondary analysis of data collected during two prospective cohort studies by a single group of investigators was performed. Latent class mixture modeling was used to identify distinct symptom-hemodynamic profiles. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to quantify difference in event-risk (HF emergency visit, hospitalization or death) among profiles. Results The mean age (n=291) was 57±13 years, 38% were female, and 61% had class III/IV HF. Three distinct symptom-hemodynamic profiles were identified. 17.9% of patients had concordant symptoms and hemodynamics (i.e. moderate physical and psychological symptoms matched the comparatively hemodynamic profile), 17.9% had severe symptoms and average hemodynamics, and 64.2% had poor hemodynamics and mild symptoms. Compared to those in the concordant profile, both profiles of symptom-hemodynamic mismatch were associated with a markedly increased event-risk (severe symptoms hazards ratio = 3.38, p=0.033; poor hemodynamics hazards ratio = 3.48, p=0.016). Conclusions A minority of adults with HF have concordant symptoms and hemodynamics. Either profile of symptom-hemodynamic mismatch in HF is associated with a greater risk of healthcare utilization for HF or death. PMID:24988323

Aldosterone Does Not Predict Cardiovascular Events Following Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients Initially Without Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Pitts, Reynaria; Gunzburger, Elise; Ballantyne, Christie M; Barter, Philip J; Kallend, David; Leiter, Lawrence A; Leitersdorf, Eran; Nicholls, Stephen J; Shah, Prediman K; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Olsson, Anders G; McMurray, John J V; Kittelson, John; Schwartz, Gregory G

2017-01-10

Aldosterone may have adverse effects in the myocardium and vasculature. Treatment with an aldosterone antagonist reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by heart failure (HF) and left ventricular systolic dysfunction. However, most patients with acute coronary syndrome do not have advanced HF. Among such patients, it is unknown whether aldosterone predicts cardiovascular risk. To address this question, we examined data from the dal-OUTCOMES trial that compared the cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor dalcetrapib with placebo, beginning 4 to 12 weeks after an index acute coronary syndrome. Patients with New York Heart Association class II (with LVEF coronary heart disease death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. Hospitalization for HF was a secondary endpoint. Over a median follow-up of 37 months, the primary outcome occurred in 366 patients (9.0%), and hospitalization for HF occurred in 72 patients (1.8%). There was no association between aldosterone and either the time to first occurrence of a primary outcome (hazard ratio for doubling of aldosterone 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.78-1.09, P=0.34) or hospitalization for HF (hazard ratio 1.38, 95% CI 0.96-1.99, P=0.08) in Cox regression models adjusted for covariates. In patients with recent acute coronary syndrome but without advanced HF, aldosterone does not predict major cardiovascular events. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00658515. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Medical costs in patients with heart failure after acute heart failure events: one-year follow-up study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Eugene; Kwon, Hye-Young; Baek, Sang Hong; Lee, Haeyoung; Yoo, Byung-Su; Kang, Seok-Min; Ahn, Youngkeun; Yang, Bong-Min

2018-03-01

This study investigated annual medical costs using real-world data focusing on acute heart failure. The data were retrospectively collected from six tertiary hospitals in South Korea. Overall, 330 patients who were hospitalized for acute heart failure between January 2011 and July 2012 were selected. Data were collected on their follow-up medical visits for 1 year, including medical costs incurred toward treatment. Those who died within the observational period or who had no records of follow-up visits were excluded. Annual per patient medical costs were estimated according to the type of medical services, and factors contributing to the costs using Gamma Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with log link were analyzed. On average, total annual medical costs for each patient were USD 6,199 (±9,675), with hospitalization accounting for 95% of the total expenses. Hospitalization cost USD 5,904 (±9,666) per patient. Those who are re-admitted have 88.5% higher medical expenditure than those who have not been re-admitted in 1 year, and patients using intensive care units have 19.6% higher expenditure than those who do not. When the number of hospital days increased by 1 day, medical expenses increased by 6.7%. Outpatient drug costs were not included. There is a possibility that medical expenses for AHF may have been under-estimated. It was found that hospitalization resulted in substantial costs for treatment of heart failure in South Korea, especially in patients with an acute heart failure event. Prevention strategies and appropriate management programs that would reduce both frequency of hospitalization and length of stay for patients with the underlying risk of heart failure are needed.

Driving force of PCMI failure under reactivity initiated accident conditions and influence of hydrogen embrittlement on failure limit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomiyasu, Kunihiko; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Nakamura, Takehiko; Fuketa, Toyoshi

2005-09-01

In order to clarify the driving force of PCMI (Pellet/Cladding Mechanical Interaction) failure on high burnup fuels and to investigate the influence of hydrogen embrittlement on failure limit under RIA (Reactivity Initiated Accident) conditions, RIA-simulation experiments were performed on fresh fuel rods in the NSRR (Nuclear Safety Research Reactor). The driving force of PCMI was restricted only to thermal expansion of pellet by using fresh UO 2 pellets. Fresh claddings were pre-hydrided to simulate hydrogen absorption of high burnup fuel rods. In seven experiments out of fourteen, test rods resulted in PCMI failure, which has been observed in the NSRR tests on high burnup PWR fuels, in terms of the transient behavior and the fracture configuration. This indicates that the driving force of PCMI failure is sufficiently explained with thermal expansion of pellet and a contribution of fission gas on it is small. A large number of incipient cracks were generated in the outer surface of the cladding even on non-failed fuel rods, and they stopped at the boundary between hydride rim, which was a hydride layer localized in the periphery of the cladding, and metallic layer. It suggests that the integrity of the metallic layer except for the hydride rim has particular importance for failure limit. Fuel enthalpy at failure correlates with the thickness of hydride rim, and tends to decrease with thicker hydride layer. (author)

The Correlation of Initial Sputum Smear Positivity on Treatment Failure of Category 1 Therapy for Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Puput Dyah Ayu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Tuberculosis is an infectious disease and is an important public health problem. Based on data from East Java Province Health Department reported that number of tuberculosis patient in Surabaya is the highest in East Java on year 2014. Early identification and good treatment based on the result of sputum identification are the strategy use to control tuberculosis widespread. So that why, microscopic observation to identify acid fast bacilli (AFB is the fundamental stage to determine recovery treatment. Initial sputum smear positivity is necessary to determine infectious graded. The objectives of the study were to identify of initial sputum smear positivity on treatment failure of category 1 therapy for pulmonary tuberculosis in RS Paru Surabaya year 2011-2014. This study used case control method with quantitative approach. Forty two samples were taken from secondary data. Case group is 21 samples who have treatment failure and control group is 21 successful treatment. Samples were selected by simple random sampling. The chi square correlation showed that highly positive initial smear (p = 0,045; OR = 5,4 have correlated and risk factor to treatment failure on category 1 therapy for pulmonary tuberculosis. The conclusion is patient’s high positive sputum smear initially correlated to treatment failure on category 1 therapy for pulmonary tuberculosis in RS Paru Surabaya year 2011–2014. Keywords: initial sputum smear positivity, treatment failure,, category 1 therapy for pulmonary tuberculosis

On a Stochastic Failure Model under Random Shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Cha, Ji Hwan

2013-02-01

In most conventional settings, the events caused by an external shock are initiated at the moments of its occurrence. In this paper, we study a new classes of shock model, where each shock from a nonhomogeneous Poisson processes can trigger a failure of a system not immediately, as in classical extreme shock models, but with delay of some random time. We derive the corresponding survival and failure rate functions. Furthermore, we study the limiting behaviour of the failure rate function where it is applicable.

Viability of Event Management Business in Batangas City, Philippine: Basis for Business Operation Initiatives

OpenAIRE

Jeninah Christia D. Borbon

2016-01-01

The research study on Viability of Event Management Business in Batangas City: Basis for Business Operation Initiatives aimed to assess the viability of this type of business using Thompson’s (2005) Dimension of Business Viability as its tool in order to create business operation initiatives. It provided a good framework for defining success factors in entrepreneurial operation initiatives in a specific business type – event management. This study utilized event organizers based i...

Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Main, I.; Naylor, M.

2012-05-01

Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a `black swan'. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify `characteristic' events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon's domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models.

Probabilistic safety analysis for fire events for the NPP Isar 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmaltz, H.; Hristodulidis, A.

2007-01-01

The 'Probabilistic Safety Analysis for Fire Events' (Fire-PSA KKI2) for the NPP Isar 2 was performed in addition to the PSA for full power operation and considers all possible events which can be initiated due to a fire. The aim of the plant specific Fire-PSA was to perform a quantitative assessment of fire events during full power operation, which is state of the art. Based on simplistic assumptions referring to the fire induced failures, the influence of system- and component-failures on the frequency of the core damage states was analysed. The Fire-PSA considers events, which will result due to fire-induced failures of equipment on the one hand in a SCRAM and on the other hand in events, which will not have direct operational effects but because of the fire-induced failure of safety related installations the plant will be shut down as a precautionary measure. These events are considered because they may have a not negligible influence on the frequency of core damage states in case of failures during the plant shut down because of the reduced redundancy of safety related systems. (orig.)

Risk assessment of K Basin twelve-inch and four-inch drain valve failure from a postulated seismic initiating event

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MORGAN, R.G.

1999-06-23

The Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Project will transfer metallic SNF from the Hanford 105 K-East and 105 K-West Basins to safe interim storage in the Canister Storage Building in the 200 Area. The initial basis for design, fabrication, installation, and operation of the fuel removal systems was that the basin leak rate which could result from a postulated accident condition would not be excessive relative to reasonable recovery operations. However, an additional potential K Basin water leak path is through the K Basin drain valves. Three twelve-inch drain valves are located in the main basin bays along the north wall. Five four-inch drain valves are located in the north and south loadout pits (NLOP and SLOP), the weasel pit, the technical viewing pit, and the discharge chute pit. The sumps containing the valves are filled with concrete which covers the drain valve body. Visual observations indicate that only the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor for the twelve-inch drain valve and that much less of the valve's bonnet and stem are exposed above the basin concrete floor for the five four-inch drain valves. It was recognized, however, that damage of the drain valve bonnet or stem during a seismic initiating event could provide a potential K Basin water leak path. The objectives of this analysis are to: (1) evaluate the likelihood of damaging the three twelve-inch drain valves located along the north wall of the main basin and the five four-inch drain valves located in the pits from a seismic initiating event, and (2) determine the likelihood of exceeding a specific consequence (initial leak rate) from a damaged valve. The analysis process is a risk-based uncertainty analysis where each variable is modeled using available information and engineering judgement. The uncertainty associated with each variable is represented by a probability distribution (probability density function). Uncertainty exists because of the inherent

International Context Regarding Application of Single Failure Criterion For New Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basic, I.; Vrbanic, I.

2016-01-01

The Single Failure Criterion (SFC) ensures reliable performance of safety systems in nuclear power plants in response to design basis initiating events. The SFC, basically, requires that the system must be capable of performing its task in the presence of any single failure. The capability of a system to perform its design function in the presence of a single failure could be threatened by a common cause failure such as a fire, flood, or human intervention or by any other cause with potential to induce multiple failures. When applied to plant's response to a postulated design-basis initiating event, the SFC usually represents a requirement that particular safety system performs its safety functions as designed under the conditions which can include: All failures caused by a single failure; All identifiable but non-detectable failures, including those in the non-tested components; All failures and spurious system actions that cause (or are caused by) the postulated event. The paper provides an overview of the regulatory design requirements for new reactors addressing Single Failure Criterion (SFC) in accordance to international best-practices, particularly considering the SCF relation to in-service testing, maintenance, repair, inspection and monitoring of systems, structures and components important to safety. The paper discusses the comparison of the current SFC requirements and guidelines published by the IAEA, WENRA, EUR and nuclear regulators in the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, Korea, Japan, China and Finland. Also, paper addresses the application of SFC requirements in design; considerations for testing, maintenance, repair, inspection and monitoring; allowable equipment outage times; exemptions to SFC requirements; and analysis for SFC application to two-, three- and four-train systems and applications for small and modular reactors. (author).

Hyporesponsiveness to Darbepoetin Alfa in Patients With Heart Failure and Anemia in the RED-HF Study (Reduction of Events by Darbepoetin Alfa in Heart Failure): Clinical and Prognostic Associations.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Meer, Peter; Grote Beverborg, Niels; Pfeffer, Marc A; Olson, Kurt; Anand, Inder S; Westenbrink, B Daan; McMurray, John J V; Swedberg, Karl; Young, James B; Solomon, Scott D; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J

2018-02-01

A poor response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents such as darbepoetin alfa has been associated with adverse outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, and anemia; whether this is also true in heart failure is unclear. We performed a post hoc analysis of the RED-HF trial (Reduction of Events by Darbepoetin Alfa in Heart Failure), in which 1008 patients with systolic heart failure and anemia (hemoglobin level, 9.0-12.0 g/dL) were randomized to darbepoetin alfa. We examined the relationship between the hematopoietic response to darbepoetin alfa and the incidence of all-cause death or first heart failure hospitalization during a follow-up of 28 months. For the purposes of the present study, patients in the lowest quartile of hemoglobin change after 4 weeks were considered nonresponders. The median initial hemoglobin change in nonresponders (n=252) was -0.25 g/dL and +1.00 g/dL in the remainder of patients (n=756). Worse renal function, lower sodium levels, and less use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers were independently associated with nonresponse. Although a low endogenous erythropoietin level helped to differentiate responders from nonresponders, its predictive value in a multivariable model was poor (C statistic=0.69). Nonresponders had a higher rate of all-cause death or first heart failure hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.54) and a higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.63) than responders. A poor response to darbepoetin alfa was associated with worse outcomes in heart failure patients with anemia. Patients with a poor response were difficult to identify using clinical and biochemical biomarkers. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00358215. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Development of transient initiating event frequencies for use in probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackowiak, D.P.; Gentillon, C.D.; Smith, K.L.

1985-05-01

Transient initiating event frequencies are an essential input to the analysis process of a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment. These frequencies describe events causing or requiring scrams. This report documents an effort to validate and update from other sources a computer-based data file developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) describing such events at 52 United States commercial nuclear power plants. Operating information from the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission on 24 additional plants from their date of commercial operation has been combined with the EPRI data, and the entire data base has been updated to add 1980 through 1983 events for all 76 plants. The validity of the EPRI data and data analysis methodology and the adequacy of the EPRI transient categories are examined. New transient initiating event frequencies are derived from the expanded data base using the EPRI transient categories and data display methods. Upper bounds for these frequencies are also provided. Additional analyses explore changes in the dominant transients, changes in transient outage times and their impact on plant operation, and the effects of power level and scheduled scrams on transient event frequencies. A more rigorous data analysis methodology is developed to encourage further refinement of the transient initiating event frequencies derived herein. Updating the transient event data base resulted in approx.2400 events being added to EPRI's approx.3000-event data file. The resulting frequency estimates were in most cases lower than those reported by EPRI, but no significant order-of-magnitude changes were noted. The average number of transients per year for the combined data base is 8.5 for pressurized water reactors and 7.4 for boiling water reactors

Probabilistic safety analysis on an SBWR 72 hours after the initiating event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dominguez Bautista, M.T.; Peinador Veira, M.

1996-01-01

Passive plants, including SBWRs, are designed to carry out safety functions with passive systems during the first 72 hours after the initiation event with no need for manual actions or external support. After this period, some recovery actions are required to enable the passive systems to continue performing their safety functions. The study was carried out by the INITEC-Empresarios Agrupados Joint Venture within the framework of the international group collaborating with GE on this project. Its purpose has been to assess, by means of probabilistic criteria, the importance to safety of each of these support actions, in order to define possible requirements to be considered in the design in respect of said recovery actions. In brief, the methodology developed for this objective consists of (1) quantifying success event trees from the PSA up to 72 hours, (2) determining the actions required in each sequence to maintain Steady State after 72 hours, (3) identifying available alternative core cooling methods in each sequence, (4) establishing the approximate (order of magnitude) realizability of each alternative method, (5) calculating the frequency of core damage as a function of the failure probability of post-72-hour actions and (6) analysing the importance of post-72-hour actions. The results of this analysis permit the establishment, right from the conceptual design phase, of the requirements that will arise to ensure these actions in the long term, enhancing their reliability and preventing the accident from continuing beyond this period. (Author)

The significance of water hammer events to public dose from reactor accidents: A probabilistic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amico, P.J.; Ferrell, W.L.; Rubin, M.P.

1984-01-01

A probabilistic assessment was made of the effects on public dose of water hammer events in LWRs. The analysis utilized actual historical water hammer data to determine if the water hammer events contributed either to system failure rates or initiating event frequencies. Representative PRAs were used to see if changes in initiating events and/or system failures caused by water hammer resulted in new values for the dominant sequences in the PRAs. New core melt frequencies were determined and carried out to the subsequent increase in public dose. It is concluded that water hammer is not a significant problem with respect to risk to the public for either BWRs or PWRs. (orig./HP)

A Study on the Frequency of Initiating Event of OPR-1000 during Outage Periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong Jae Beol; Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

These sources of data did not reflect the latest event data which have occurred during the PWR outage to the frequencies of initiating event Electric Power Research Institute(EPRI) in USA collected the data of loss of decay heat removal during outage from 1989 to 2009 and published technical report. Domestic operating experiences for LOOP is gathered in Operational Performance Information System for Nuclear Power Plant(OPIS). To reduce conservatism and obtain completeness for LPSD PSA, those data should be collected and used to update the frequencies. The frequencies of LOSDC and LOOP are reevaluated using the data of EPRI and OPIS in this paper. Quantification is conducted to recalculate core damage frequency(CDF), since the rate is changed. The results are discussed below. To make an accurate estimate of the initiating events of LPSD PSA, the event data were collected and the frequencies of initiating events were updated using Bayesian approach. CDF was evaluated through quantification. Δ CDF is -40% and the dominant contributor is pressurizer PSV stuck open event. The most of the event data in EPRI TR were collected from US nuclear power plant industry. Those data are not enough to evaluate outage risk precisely. Therefore, to reduce conservatism and obtain completeness for LPSD PSA, the licensee event report and domestic data should be collected and reflected to the frequencies of the initiating events during outage.

Effect of initial void shape on ductile failure in a shear field

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tvergaard, Viggo

2015-01-01

For voids in a shear field unit cell model analyses have been used to show that ductile failure is predicted even though the stress triaxiality is low or perhaps negative, so that the void volume fraction does not grow during deformation. Here, the effect of the void shape is studied by analyzing...... with circular cross-section, i.e. the voids in shear flatten out to micro-cracks, which rotate and elongate until interaction with neighboring micro-cracks gives coalescence. Even though the mechanism of ductile failure is the same, the load carrying capacity predicted, for the same initial void volume fraction...

Feature extraction and sensor selection for NPP initiating event identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Ting-Han; Wu, Shun-Chi; Chen, Kuang-You; Chou, Hwai-Pwu

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A two-stage feature extraction scheme for NPP initiating event identification. • With stBP, interrelations among the sensors can be retained for identification. • With dSFS, sensors that are crucial for identification can be efficiently selected. • Efficacy of the scheme is illustrated with data from the Maanshan NPP simulator. - Abstract: Initiating event identification is essential in managing nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accidents. In this paper, a novel two-stage feature extraction scheme that incorporates the proposed sensor type-wise block projection (stBP) and deflatable sequential forward selection (dSFS) is used to elicit the discriminant information in the data obtained from various NPP sensors to facilitate event identification. With the stBP, the primal features can be extracted without eliminating the interrelations among the sensors of the same type. The extracted features are then subjected to a further dimensionality reduction by selecting the sensors that are most relevant to the events under consideration. This selection is not easy, and a combinatorial optimization technique is normally required. With the dSFS, an optimal sensor set can be found with less computational load. Moreover, its sensor deflation stage allows sensors in the preselected set to be iteratively refined to avoid being trapped into a local optimum. Results from detailed experiments containing data of 12 event categories and a total of 112 events generated with a Taiwan’s Maanshan NPP simulator are presented to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed scheme.

Rising from failure and learning from success: The role of past experience in radical initiative taking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Deichmann (Dirk); J.C.M. van den Ende (Jan)

2014-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ We investigate how the successes and failures of people who initiate radical ideas influence (a) the inclination to take new personal initiatives and (b) the outcome of those initiatives. Using the data of 1,792 radical ideas suggested by 908 employees in a

Development of transient initiating event frequencies for use in probabilistic risk assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mackowiak, D.P.; Gentillon, C.D.; Smith, K.L.

1985-05-01

Transient initiating event frequencies are an essential input to the analysis process of a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment. These frequencies describe events causing or requiring scrams. This report documents an effort to validate and update from other sources a computer-based data file developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) describing such events at 52 United States commercial nuclear power plants. Operating information from the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission on 24 additional plants from their date of commercial operation has been combined with the EPRI data, and the entire data base has been updated to add 1980 through 1983 events for all 76 plants. The validity of the EPRI data and data analysis methodology and the adequacy of the EPRI transient categories are examined. New transient initiating event frequencies are derived from the expanded data base using the EPRI transient categories and data display methods. Upper bounds for these frequencies are also provided. Additional analyses explore changes in the dominant transients, changes in transient outage times and their impact on plant operation, and the effects of power level and scheduled scrams on transient event frequencies. A more rigorous data analysis methodology is developed to encourage further refinement of the transient initiating event frequencies derived herein. Updating the transient event data base resulted in approx.2400 events being added to EPRI's approx.3000-event data file. The resulting frequency estimates were in most cases lower than those reported by EPRI, but no significant order-of-magnitude changes were noted. The average number of transients per year for the combined data base is 8.5 for pressurized water reactors and 7.4 for boiling water reactors.

Assessment of Core Failure Limits for Light Water Reactor Fuel under Reactivity Initiated Accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jernkvist, Lars Olof; Massih, Ali R.

2004-12-01

Core failure limits for high-burnup light water reactor UO 2 fuel rods, subjected to postulated reactivity initiated accidents (RIAs), are here assessed by use of best-estimate computational methods. The considered RIAs are the hot zero power rod ejection accident (HZP REA) in pressurized water reactors and the cold zero power control rod drop accident (CZP CRDA) in boiling water reactors. Burnup dependent core failure limits for these events are established by calculating the fuel radial average enthalpy connected with incipient fuel pellet melting for fuel burnups in the range of 30 to 70 MWd/kgU. The postulated HZP REA and CZP CRDA result in lower enthalpies for pellet melting than RIAs that take place at rated power. Consequently, the enthalpy thresholds presented here are lower bounds to RIAs at rated power. The calculations are performed with best-estimate models, which are applied in the FRAPCON-3.2 and SCANAIR-3.2 computer codes. Based on the results of three-dimensional core kinetics analyses, the considered power transients are simulated by a Gaussian pulse shape, with a fixed width of either 25 ms (REA) or 45 ms (CRDA). Notwithstanding the differences in postulated accident scenarios between the REA and the CRDA, the calculated core failure limits for these two events are similar. The calculated enthalpy thresholds for fuel pellet melting decrease gradually with fuel burnup, from approximately 960 J/gUO 2 at 30 MWd/kgU to 810 J/gUO 2 at 70 MWd/kgU. The decline is due to depression of the UO 2 melting temperature with increasing burnup, in combination with burnup related changes to the radial power distribution within the fuel pellets. The presented fuel enthalpy thresholds for incipient UO 2 melting provide best-estimate core failure limits for low- and intermediate-burnup fuel. However, pulse reactor tests on high-burnup fuel rods indicate that the accumulation of gaseous fission products within the pellets may lead to fuel dispersal into the coolant at

Clinical and economic consequences of failure of initial antibiotic therapy for patients with community-onset complicated intra-abdominal infections.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong Pil Chong

Full Text Available Complicated intra-abdominal infection (cIAI is infection that extends beyond the hollow viscus of origin into the peritoneal space, and is associated with either abscess formation or peritonitis. There are few studies that have assessed the actual costs and outcomes associated with failure of initial antibiotic therapy for cIAI. The aims of this study were to evaluate risk factors and impact on costs and outcomes of failure of initial antibiotic therapy for community-onset cIAI.A retrospective study was performed at eleven tertiary-care hospitals. Hospitalized adults with community-onset cIAI who underwent an appropriate source control procedure between August 2008 and September 2011 were included. Failure of initial antibiotic therapy was defined as a change of antibiotics due to a lack of improvement of the clinical symptoms and signs associated with cIAI in the first week.A total of 514 patients hospitalized for community-onset cIAI were included in the analysis. The mean age of the patients was 53.3 ± 17.6 years, 72 patients (14% had health care-associated infection, and 48 (9% experienced failure of initial antibiotic therapy. Failure of initial antibiotic therapy was associated with increased costs and morbidity. After adjustment for covariates, patients with unsuccessful initial therapy received an additional 2.9 days of parenteral antibiotic therapy, were hospitalized for an additional 5.3 days, and incurred $3,287 in additional inpatient charges. Independent risk factors for failure of initial antibiotic therapy were health care-associated infection, solid cancer, and APACHE II ≥13.To improve outcomes and costs in patients with community-onset cIAI, rapid assessment of health care-associated risk factors and severity of disease, selection of an appropriate antibiotic regimen accordingly, and early infection source control should be performed.

Prediction of failure of highly irradiated Zircaloy clad tubes under reactivity initiated accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jernkvist, L.O.

2003-01-01

This paper deals with failure of irradiated Zircaloy tubes under the heat-up stage of a reactivity initiated accident (RIA). More precisely, by use of a model for plastic strain localization and necking failure, we theoretically analyse the effects of local surface defects on clad ductility and survivability under RIA. The results show that even very shallow surface defects, e.g. arising from a non-uniform or partially spilled oxide layer, have a strong limiting effect on clad ductility. Moreover, in presence of surface defects, the ability of the clad tube to expand radially without necking failure is found to be extremely sensitive to the stress biaxiality ratio σ zz /σ θθ , which is here assumed to be in the range from 0 to 1. The results of our analysis are compared with clad ductility data available in literature, and their consequences for clad failure prediction under RIA are discussed. In particular, the results raise serious concerns regarding the applicability of failure criteria, which are based on clad strain energy density. These criteria do not capture the observed sensitivity to stress biaxiality on clad failure propensity. (author)

Study of Updating Initiating Event Frequency using Prognostics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hyeonmin; Lee, Sang-Hwan; Park, Jun-seok; Kim, Hyungdae; Chang, Yoon-Suk; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) model enables to find the relative priority of accident scenarios, weak points in achieving accident prevention or mitigation, and insights to improve those vulnerabilities. Thus, PSA consider realistic calculation for precise and confidence results. However, PSA model still 'conservative' aspects in the procedures of developing a PSA model. One of the sources for the conservatism is caused by the assumption of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Recently, Surveillance, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (SDP) is a growing trend in applying space and aviation systems in particular. Furthermore, a study dealing with the applicable areas and state-of-the-art status of the SDP in nuclear industry was published. SDP utilizing massive database and information technology among such enabling techniques is worthwhile to be highlighted in terms of the capability of alleviating the conservatism in the conventional PSA. This paper review the concept of integrating PSA and SDP and suggest the updated methodology of Initiating Event (IE) using prognostics. For more detailed, we focus on IE of the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) considering tube degradation. This paper is additional research of previous our suggested the research. In this paper, the concept of integrating PSA and SDP are suggested. Prognostics algorithms in SDP are applied at IE, Bes in the Level 1 PSA. As an example, updating SGTR IE and its ageing were considered. Tube ageing were analyzed by using PASTA and Monte Carlo method. After analyzing the tube ageing, conventional SGTR IE were updated by using Bayesian approach. The studied method can help to cover the static and conservatism in PSA.

Study of Updating Initiating Event Frequency using Prognostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyeonmin; Lee, Sang-Hwan; Park, Jun-seok; Kim, Hyungdae; Chang, Yoon-Suk; Heo, Gyunyoung

2014-01-01

The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) model enables to find the relative priority of accident scenarios, weak points in achieving accident prevention or mitigation, and insights to improve those vulnerabilities. Thus, PSA consider realistic calculation for precise and confidence results. However, PSA model still 'conservative' aspects in the procedures of developing a PSA model. One of the sources for the conservatism is caused by the assumption of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Recently, Surveillance, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (SDP) is a growing trend in applying space and aviation systems in particular. Furthermore, a study dealing with the applicable areas and state-of-the-art status of the SDP in nuclear industry was published. SDP utilizing massive database and information technology among such enabling techniques is worthwhile to be highlighted in terms of the capability of alleviating the conservatism in the conventional PSA. This paper review the concept of integrating PSA and SDP and suggest the updated methodology of Initiating Event (IE) using prognostics. For more detailed, we focus on IE of the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) considering tube degradation. This paper is additional research of previous our suggested the research. In this paper, the concept of integrating PSA and SDP are suggested. Prognostics algorithms in SDP are applied at IE, Bes in the Level 1 PSA. As an example, updating SGTR IE and its ageing were considered. Tube ageing were analyzed by using PASTA and Monte Carlo method. After analyzing the tube ageing, conventional SGTR IE were updated by using Bayesian approach. The studied method can help to cover the static and conservatism in PSA

Control rod trip failures; Salem 1, the cause, response, and potential fixes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, R.E.; Boccio, J.L.; Luckas, W.J.

1984-01-01

This chapter presents a systems and reliability analysis of recent nuclear reactor control rod failure-to-trip (or scram) events that have been experienced in the US commercial nuclear industry. The operational factors of hardware, procedures, and human error are considered in the analysis of transients without scram. The 1980 Browns Ferry 3 scram system failure is analyzed to contrast the two 1983 Salem 1 events. The details of the Salem control rod failure to trip are investigated and used to calculate the reactor protection system unavailabilities. The internal reactor trip breaker logic is reviewed as related to the Westinghouse DB-50 breaker application. The impact of test and maintenance on system challenges is discussed. It is concluded that although the failure to trip or scram represents a single class of initiators, the actual events of each transient are operationally unique and require individual human responses

Rising from failure and learning from success: the role of past experience in radical initiative taking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Deichmann, D.; van den Ende, J..

2014-01-01

We investigate how the successes and failures of people who initiate radical ideas influence (a) the inclination to take new personal initiatives and (b) the outcome of those initiatives. Using the data of 1,792 radical ideas suggested by 908 employees in a multinational firm's idea and innovation

Retrieval system for emplaced spent unreprocessed fuel (SURF) in salt bed depository: accident event analysis and mechanical failure probabilities. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhaskaran, G.; McCleery, J.E.

1979-10-01

This report provides support in developing an accident prediction event tree diagram, with an analysis of the baseline design concept for the retrieval of emplaced spent unreprocessed fuel (SURF) contained in a degraded Canister. The report contains an evaluation check list, accident logic diagrams, accident event tables, fault trees/event trees and discussions of failure probabilities for the following subsystems as potential contributors to a failure: (a) Canister extraction, including the core and ram units; (b) Canister transfer at the hoist area; and (c) Canister hoisting. This report is the second volume of a series. It continues and expands upon the report Retrieval System for Emplaced Spent Unreprocessed Fuel (SURF) in Salt Bed Depository: Baseline Concept Criteria Specifications and Mechanical Failure Probabilities. This report draws upon the baseline conceptual specifications contained in the first report

Incidence of virological failure and major regimen change of initial combination antiretroviral therapy in the Latin America and the Caribbean: an observational cohort study

Science.gov (United States)

Cesar, Carina; Jenkins, Cathy A.; Shepherd, Bryan E.; Padgett, Denis; Mejía, Fernando; Ribeiro, Sayonara Rocha; Cortes, Claudia P.; Pape, Jean W.; Madero, Juan Sierra; Fink, Valeria; Sued, Omar; McGowan, Catherine; Cahn, Pedro

2015-01-01

Background Access to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is expanding in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). There is little information in this region regarding incidence of and factors associated with regimen failure and regimen change. Methods Antiretroviral-naïve adults starting cART from 2000-2014 at sites in seven countries throughout LAC were included. Cumulative incidence of virologic failure and major regimen change were estimated with death considered a competing event. Findings 14,027 cART initiators (60% male, median age 37 years, median CD4 156 cells/mm3, median HIV-RNA 5·0 log10 copies/mL, and 28% with clinical AIDS) were followed for a median of 3·9 years. 1,719 patients presented virologic failure and 1,955 had a major regimen change. Excluding GHESKIO-Haiti (which did not regularly measure HIV-RNA), cumulative incidence of virologic failure was 7·8%, 19·2%, and 25·8% at one, three, and five years after cART initiation, respectively; cumulative incidence of major regimen change was 5·9%, 12·7%, and 18·2%. Incidence of major regimen change at GHESKIO-Haiti at five years was 10·7%. Virologic failure was associated with younger age (adjusted hazard ratio[aHR]=2·03 for 20 vs. 40 years; 95% confidence interval[CI] 1·68-2·44), infection through injection-drug use (IDU) (aHR=1·60; 95%CI 1·02-2·52), initiation in earlier calendar years (aHR=1·28 for 2002 vs. 2006; 95%CI 1·13-1·46), and starting with a boosted protease inhibitor (aHR=1·17 vs. non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor; 95%CI 1·00-1·64). Interpretation Incidence of virologic failure was generally lower than in North America/Europe. Our results suggest the need to design strategies to reduce failure and major regimen change among younger patients and those with a history of IDU. Funding US National Institutes of Health: U01 AI069923. PMID:26520929

Forecasting of integral parameters of solar cosmic ray events according to initial characteristics of an event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belovskij, M.N.; Ochelkov, Yu.P.

1981-01-01

The forecasting method for an integral proton flux of solar cosmic rays (SCR) based on the initial characteristics of the phe-- nomenon is proposed. The efficiency of the method is grounded. The accuracy of forecasting is estimated and the retrospective forecasting of real events is carried out. The parameters of the universal function describing the time progress of the SCR events are pre-- sented. The proposed method is suitable for forecasting practically all the SCR events. The timeliness of the given forecasting is not worse than that of the forecasting based on utilization of the SCR propagation models [ru

A time-dependent event tree technique for modelling recovery operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.; Fitzpatrick, R.

1991-01-01

The development of a simplified time dependent event tree methodology is presented. The technique is especially applicable to describe recovery operations in nuclear reactor accident scenarios initiated by support system failures. The event tree logic is constructed using time dependent top events combined with a damage function that contains information about the final state time behavior of the reactor core. Both the failure and the success states may be utilized for the analysis. The method is illustrated by modeling the loss of service water function with special emphasis on the RCP [reactor coolant pump] seal LOCA [loss of coolant accident] scenario. 5 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Meta-Analysis of the Associations of p-Cresyl Sulfate (PCS) and Indoxyl Sulfate (IS) with Cardiovascular Events and All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Chronic Renal Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Cheng-Jui; Wu, Vincent; Wu, Pei-Chen; Wu, Chih-Jen

2015-01-01

Indoxyl sulfate (IS) and p-cresyl sulfate (PCS) are protein-bound uremic toxins that increase in the sera of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), and are not effectively removed by dialysis. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to investigate the relationships of PCS and IS with cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with CKD stage 3 and above. Medline, Cochrane, and EMBASE databases were searched until January 1, 2014 with combinations of the following keywords: chronic renal failure, end-stage kidney disease, uremic toxin, uremic retention, indoxyl sulfate, p-cresyl sulfate. Inclusion criteria were: 1) Patients with stage 1 to 5 CKD; 2) Prospective study; 3) Randomized controlled trial; 4) English language publication. The associations between serum levels of PCS and IS and the risks of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events were the primary outcome measures. Of 155 articles initially identified, 10 prospective and one cross-sectional study with a total 1,572 patients were included. Free PCS was significantly associated with all-cause mortality among patients with chronic renal failure (pooled OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.30, P = 0.013). An elevated free IS level was also significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (pooled OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.17, P = 0.003). An elevated free PCS level was significantly associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events among patients with chronic renal failure (pooled OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.50, P = 0.002), while free IS was not significantly associated with risk of cardiovascular events (pooled OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.13, P = 0.196). Elevated levels of PCS and IS are associated with increased mortality in patients with CKD, while PCS, but not IS, is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events.

TUF simulation of Darlington class IV power failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liauw, W K; Liu, W S; Leung, R K; Phillips, B S [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

1996-12-31

Presented here is the TUF simulation of the initial transient of the Class IV power failure event that occurred on November 25, 1993 at Darlington Unit 4. The important physical parameters and models that relate to this event are discussed. The agreements between the code predictions and the plant data on the thermal-hydraulics and controller responses demonstrate the code reliability for plant operational support. (author). 4 refs., 1 tab., 12 figs.

TUF simulation of Darlington class IV power failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liauw, W.K.; Liu, W.S.; Leung, R.K.; Phillips, B.S.

1995-01-01

Presented here is the TUF simulation of the initial transient of the Class IV power failure event that occurred on November 25, 1993 at Darlington Unit 4. The important physical parameters and models that relate to this event are discussed. The agreements between the code predictions and the plant data on the thermal-hydraulics and controller responses demonstrate the code reliability for plant operational support. (author). 4 refs., 1 tab., 12 figs

Loss of preferred power events in German BWRs and PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frisch, W.

1984-01-01

This chapter examines the variety of courses which the loss of auxiliary power case may take in different plants, depending on the initiation of the event, the switching to the alternate auxiliary power supply and the automatic start-up sequences of auxiliaries (e.g. feedwater pumps, condensate pumps) after a short term interruption of auxiliary power. Topics considered include main station transformer failure in a boiling water reactor (BWR), main plant features, event description, evaluation of the event, deviations from expected behavior, operator actions, a comparison with start-up tests and other events, a comparison with postcalculations, and auxiliary transformer failure in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). Loss of preferred (or auxiliary) power events are standard design cases taken into account in the design of many reactor and plant systems

Reactor pressure vessel failure probability following through-wall cracks due to pressurized thermal shock events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonen, F.A.; Garnich, M.R.; Simonen, E.P.; Bian, S.H.; Nomura, K.K.; Anderson, W.E.; Pedersen, L.T.

1986-04-01

A fracture mechanics model was developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to predict the behavior of a reactor pressure vessel following a through-wall crack that occurs during a pressurized thermal shock (PTS) event. This study, which contributed to a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) program to study PTS risk, was coordinated with the Integrated Pressurized Thermal Shock (IPTS) Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The PNL fracture mechanics model uses the critical transients and probabilities of through-wall cracks from the IPTS Program. The PNL model predicts the arrest, reinitiation, and direction of crack growth for a postulated through-wall crack and thereby predicts the mode of vessel failure. A Monte-Carlo type of computer code was written to predict the probabilities of the alternative failure modes. This code treats the fracture mechanics properties of the various welds and plates of a vessel as random variables. Plant-specific calculations were performed for the Oconee-1, Calvert Cliffs-1, and H.B. Robinson-2 reactor pressure vessels for the conditions of postulated transients. The model predicted that 50% or more of the through-wall axial cracks will turn to follow a circumferential weld. The predicted failure mode is a complete circumferential fracture of the vessel, which results in a potential vertically directed missile consisting of the upper head assembly. Missile arrest calculations for the three nuclear plants predict that such vertical missiles, as well as all potential horizontally directed fragmentation type missiles, will be confined to the vessel enclosre cavity. The PNL failure mode model is recommended for use in future evaluations of other plants, to determine the failure modes that are most probable for postulated PTS events

A study on the regulatory approach of KNGR multiple failure events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Keun Sun; Kweon, Y. C.; Kang, H. J.; Lee, S. J.; Lee, Y. S.; Moon, J. J.; Lee, M. K. [Sumoon Univ., Asan (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Ji Hwan [Baekseok College, Cheonan (Korea, Republic of); Yang, S. H. [Korea Association for Nuclear Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2000-02-15

This project is to provide the regulatory direction of 3 major technical issues for the Korean Next Generation Reactors, which are parts of major technical issues resulted from the safety regulation R and D on the KNGR. The outstanding results are as follows : through comparison and analysis of domestic/international requirements related to SBO, additional items, which are considered in SSRs, are identified. According to investigation, procedure and training should be included in SSRs, and plant-specific capability analysis requirement contains initial condition, acceptance and addition analysis on the leak rake through RCP seal, etc. In addition, state of the art on the major items related to SBO requirement are described. Several safety analysis requirements are suggested that are needed to be used in the analyses which are aiming to show the ability of the SDVS to cope with TLOFW event. The suggested requirements include suggestions in BE method, reactor thermal power and decay heat, time to reactor trip, time to RCP trip, operator response time, pressurizer and steam generator, and thermal-hydraulic models related to TLOFW event. It is recommended that Moody model mentioned in 10CFR50 appendix K should be excluded in calculation of discharge flow through bleed valves in case of a TLOFW event. Some requirements on initial and boundary conditions are suggested to be used in the analyses of NPPs during MSGTR events. The suggestion includes requirements on analysis method, number of reptured tubes, repture location, operator response time, primary coolant leak flow, and acceptance criteria. As there has been no occurrence of MSGTR event and little literatures reporting analysis results of the event, some items need more study. In addition, some analyses are needed in order to fine the rupture location which gives the most conservative consequence.

A study on the regulatory approach of KNGR multiple failure events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Keun Sun; Kweon, Y. C.; Kang, H. J.; Lee, S. J.; Lee, Y. S.; Moon, J. J.; Lee, M. K.; Jeong, Ji Hwan; Yang, S. H.

2000-02-01

This project is to provide the regulatory direction of 3 major technical issues for the Korean Next Generation Reactors, which are parts of major technical issues resulted from the safety regulation R and D on the KNGR. The outstanding results are as follows : through comparison and analysis of domestic/international requirements related to SBO, additional items, which are considered in SSRs, are identified. According to investigation, procedure and training should be included in SSRs, and plant-specific capability analysis requirement contains initial condition, acceptance and addition analysis on the leak rake through RCP seal, etc. In addition, state of the art on the major items related to SBO requirement are described. Several safety analysis requirements are suggested that are needed to be used in the analyses which are aiming to show the ability of the SDVS to cope with TLOFW event. The suggested requirements include suggestions in BE method, reactor thermal power and decay heat, time to reactor trip, time to RCP trip, operator response time, pressurizer and steam generator, and thermal-hydraulic models related to TLOFW event. It is recommended that Moody model mentioned in 10CFR50 appendix K should be excluded in calculation of discharge flow through bleed valves in case of a TLOFW event. Some requirements on initial and boundary conditions are suggested to be used in the analyses of NPPs during MSGTR events. The suggestion includes requirements on analysis method, number of reptured tubes, repture location, operator response time, primary coolant leak flow, and acceptance criteria. As there has been no occurrence of MSGTR event and little literatures reporting analysis results of the event, some items need more study. In addition, some analyses are needed in order to fine the rupture location which gives the most conservative consequence

A study of common-mode failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, G.T.; Watson, I.A.

1979-07-01

The purpose of the report is to investigate problems of the identification of the common failure mode (CFM) the reliability models used and the data required for their solution, particularly with regard to automatic protection systems for nuclear reactors. The available literature which was surveyed during the study is quoted and used as a basis for the main work of the study. The type of redundancy system under consideration is initially described and the types of CFM to which these systems are prone are identified before a general definition of the term 'common mode failure' is proposed. The definition and proposed classification system for CMF are based on the common cause of failure, so identifying the primary events. Defences against CFM are included and proposals for an overall strategy and detailed recommendations for design and operation are made. Common mode failures in US nuclear reactor systems, aircraft systems, and other sources including chemical plant systems are surveyed. The data indicates the importance of the human error problem in the causes of CMF in design, maintenance and operation. From a study of the collected data a redundancy sub-system model for CMF is developed which identifies three main categories of failure, non-recurrent engineering design errors, maintenance and test errors, and random interest events. The model proposed allows for the improvement in sub-system reliability where appropriate defences are applied. (author)

Undetected latent failures of safety-related systems. Preliminary survey of events in nuclear power plants 1980-1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydell, B.

1998-03-01

This report summarizes results and insights from a preliminary survey of events involving undetected, latent failures of safety-related systems. The survey was limited to events where mispositioned equipment (e.g., valves, switches) remained undetected, thus rendering standby equipment or systems unavailable for short or long time periods. Typically, these events were symptoms of underlying latent errors (e.g., design errors, procedure errors, unanalyzed safety conditions) and programmatic errors. The preliminary survey identified well over 300 events. Of these, 95 events are documented in this report. Events involving mispositioned equipment are commonplace. Most events are discovered soon after occurrence, however. But as evidenced by the survey results, some events remained undetected beyond several shift changes. The recommendations developed by the survey emphasize the importance of applying modern root cause analysis techniques to the event analysis to ensure that the causes and implications of occurred events are fully understood

A phase II trial of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) plus chemotherapy as initial treatment for local failures or advanced prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Amato, Robert; Stepankiw, Mika; Gonzales, Patricia

2013-06-01

Long-term hormonal ablation in prostate cancer is associated with decreased overall health and quality of life. Few reports emphasized the role of chemotherapy in the management of early stage prostate cancer. This study analyzed the safety and efficacy of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) plus chemotherapy as initial treatment for patients identified as local failures or not eligible for prostatectomy or radiation therapy due to advanced disease presentation. Enrolled patients received ADT in the form of leuprolide every 12 weeks for 24 months with bicalutamide initiating after the completion of chemotherapy. Chemotherapy consisted of ketoconazole and doxorubicin for weeks 1, 3, and 5 and estramustine and docetaxel and for weeks 2, 4 and 6. During weeks 7 and 8, no treatment was received. Forty-six patients were enrolled, and forty-five patients were evaluable. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 23.4 months. Median overall survival (OS) was 53.7 months. Out of 45 patients with measurable disease, 22 patients had an objective response: 9 patients achieved a complete response; 2 patients achieved a partial response; 10 patients achieved stable disease. Frequent grade 3 adverse events included elevated ALT (17 %), hypokalemia (13 %), and hypophosphatemia (13 %). Grade 4 adverse events were rare and included low bicarbonate (2 %), hypokalemia (2 %), leukocytopenia (2 %), and neutropenia (2 %). The treatment demonstrated clinical benefit in all patient subsets with minimal reversible treatment-related adverse events. Subgroup analysis suggests that having prior local therapy resulted in greater PFS and OS.

Event group importance measures for top event frequency analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

Three traditional importance measures, risk reduction, partial derivative, nd variance reduction, have been extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of underlying failure rates to the frequencies of resulting top events. The partial derivative importance measure was extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. Given the moments of the distributions that characterize the uncertainties in the underlying failure rates, the expectation values of the top event frequency, its variance, and all of the new group importance measures can be quantified exactly for two familiar cases: (1) when all underlying failure rates are presumed independent, and (2) when pairs of failure rates based on common data are treated as being equal (totally correlated). In these cases, the new importance measures, which can also be applied to assess the importance of individual events, obviate the need for Monte Carlo sampling. The event group importance measures are illustrated using a small example problem and demonstrated by applications made as part of a major reactor facility risk assessment. These illustrations and applications indicate both the utility and the versatility of the event group importance measures

Event group importance measures for top event frequency analyses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-07-31

Three traditional importance measures, risk reduction, partial derivative, nd variance reduction, have been extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of underlying failure rates to the frequencies of resulting top events. The partial derivative importance measure was extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. Given the moments of the distributions that characterize the uncertainties in the underlying failure rates, the expectation values of the top event frequency, its variance, and all of the new group importance measures can be quantified exactly for two familiar cases: (1) when all underlying failure rates are presumed independent, and (2) when pairs of failure rates based on common data are treated as being equal (totally correlated). In these cases, the new importance measures, which can also be applied to assess the importance of individual events, obviate the need for Monte Carlo sampling. The event group importance measures are illustrated using a small example problem and demonstrated by applications made as part of a major reactor facility risk assessment. These illustrations and applications indicate both the utility and the versatility of the event group importance measures.

A mid-layer model for human reliability analysis: understanding the cognitive causes of human failure events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Song-Hua; Chang, James Y.H.; Boring, Ronald L.; Whaley, April M.; Lois, Erasmia; Langfitt Hendrickson, Stacey M.; Oxstrand, Johanna H.; Forester, John Alan; Kelly, Dana L.; Mosleh, Ali

2010-01-01

The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) at the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) is sponsoring work in response to a Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) directing an effort to establish a single human reliability analysis (HRA) method for the agency or guidance for the use of multiple methods. As part of this effort an attempt to develop a comprehensive HRA qualitative approach is being pursued. This paper presents a draft of the method's middle layer, a part of the qualitative analysis phase that links failure mechanisms to performance shaping factors. Starting with a Crew Response Tree (CRT) that has identified human failure events, analysts identify potential failure mechanisms using the mid-layer model. The mid-layer model presented in this paper traces the identification of the failure mechanisms using the Information-Diagnosis/Decision-Action (IDA) model and cognitive models from the psychological literature. Each failure mechanism is grouped according to a phase of IDA. Under each phase of IDA, the cognitive models help identify the relevant performance shaping factors for the failure mechanism. The use of IDA and cognitive models can be traced through fault trees, which provide a detailed complement to the CRT.

A Mid-Layer Model for Human Reliability Analysis: Understanding the Cognitive Causes of Human Failure Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stacey M. L. Hendrickson; April M. Whaley; Ronald L. Boring; James Y. H. Chang; Song-Hua Shen; Ali Mosleh; Johanna H. Oxstrand; John A. Forester; Dana L. Kelly; Erasmia L. Lois

2010-06-01

The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) is sponsoring work in response to a Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) directing an effort to establish a single human reliability analysis (HRA) method for the agency or guidance for the use of multiple methods. As part of this effort an attempt to develop a comprehensive HRA qualitative approach is being pursued. This paper presents a draft of the method’s middle layer, a part of the qualitative analysis phase that links failure mechanisms to performance shaping factors. Starting with a Crew Response Tree (CRT) that has identified human failure events, analysts identify potential failure mechanisms using the mid-layer model. The mid-layer model presented in this paper traces the identification of the failure mechanisms using the Information-Diagnosis/Decision-Action (IDA) model and cognitive models from the psychological literature. Each failure mechanism is grouped according to a phase of IDA. Under each phase of IDA, the cognitive models help identify the relevant performance shaping factors for the failure mechanism. The use of IDA and cognitive models can be traced through fault trees, which provide a detailed complement to the CRT.

Sacubitril and valsartan fixed combination to reduce heart failure events in post-acute myocardial infarction patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaid Iskandar, M; Lang, C C

2017-10-01

Heart failure is a term used to define a constellation of symptoms and signs that are commonly attributed to the inability of the heart to produce a cardiac output that meets the demands of the body. It remains a deadly disease, affecting between 1-2% of the population, and is more common in the elderly, with around 6-10% of patients over 65 suffering from the condition. Sacubitril/valsartan (LCZ-696) is a combined neprilysin inhibitor and angiotensin AT1 receptor blocker approved in recent years for the treatment of chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. In an area where there have been limited pharmacological advances in the last 10 years, this drug was a game changer and a much welcomed addition to contemporary heart failure therapy. It is currently being studied in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and for the reduction of heart failure events post-acute myocardial infarction. Results from the ongoing PARADISE-MI study are awaited by the global cardiology community with great interest. Copyright 2017 Clarivate Analytics.

Defense against common-mode failures in protection system design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wyman, R.H.; Johnson, G.L.

1998-01-01

The introduction of digital instrumentation and control into reactor safety systems creates a heightened concern about common-mode failure. This paper discusses the concern and methods of cope with the concern. Common-mode failures have been a 'fact-of-life' in existing systems. The informal introduction of defense-in-depth and diversity (D-in-D and D) - coupled with the fact that hardware common-mode failures are often distributed in time - has allowed systems to deal with past common-mode failures. However, identical software operating in identical redundant systems presents the potential for simultaneous failure. Consequently, the use of digital systems raises the concern about common-mode failure to a new level. A more methodical approach to mitigating common-mode failure is needed to address these concerns. Purposeful introduction of D-in-D and D has been used as a defense against common-mode failure in reactor protection systems. At least two diverse systems are provided to mitigate any potential initiating event. Additionally, diverse displays and controls are provided to allow the operator to monitor plant status and manually initiate engineered safety features. A special form of common-mode failure analysis called 'defense-in-depth and diversity analysis' has been developed to identify possible common-mode failure vulnerabilities in digital systems. An overview of this analysis technique is provided. (author)

Defense against common-mode failures in protection system design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wyman, R.H.; Johnson, G.L.

1997-01-01

The introduction of digital instrumentation and control into reactor safety systems creates a heightened concern about common-mode failure. This paper discusses the concern and methods to cope with the concern. Common-mode failures have been a ''fact-of-life'' in existing systems. The informal introduction of defense-in-depth and diversity (D-in-D ampersand D)-coupled with the fact that hardware common-mode failures are often distributed in time-has allowed systems to deal with past common-mode failures. However, identical software operating in identical redundant systems presents the potential for simultaneous failure. Consequently, the use of digital systems raises the concern about common-mode failure to a new level. A more methodical approach to mitigating common-mode failure is needed to address these concerns. Purposeful introduction of D-in-D ampersand D has been used as a defense against common-mode failure in reactor protection systems. At least two diverse systems are provided to mitigate any potential initiating event. Additionally, diverse displays and controls are provided to allow the operator to monitor plant status and manually initiate engineered safety features. A special form of conimon-mode failure analysis called ''defense-in-depth and diversity analysis'' has been developed to identify possible conimon-mode failure vulnerabilities in digital systems. An overview of this analysis technique is provided

Event-triggered decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant control of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with actuator failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

2018-06-01

This paper investigates the event-triggered decentralized adaptive tracking problem of a class of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with unexpected actuator failures. It is assumed that local control signals are transmitted to local actuators with time-varying faults whenever predefined conditions for triggering events are satisfied. Compared with the existing control-input-based event-triggering strategy for adaptive control of uncertain nonlinear systems, the aim of this paper is to propose a tracking-error-based event-triggering strategy in the decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant tracking framework. The proposed approach can relax drastic changes in control inputs caused by actuator faults in the existing triggering strategy. The stability of the proposed event-triggering control system is analyzed in the Lyapunov sense. Finally, simulation comparisons of the proposed and existing approaches are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical result in the presence of actuator faults. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Treatment of the loss of ultimate heat sink initiating events in the IRSN level 1 PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dupuy, Patricia; Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois

2014-01-01

The total loss of the ultimate heat sink is an initiating event which, even it is mainly of external origin, has been considered in the frame of internal events Level 1 PSA by IRSN. The on-going actions on the development of external hazards PSA and the recent incident of loss of the heat sink induced by the ingress of vegetable matter that occurred in France in 2009 have pointed out the need to improve the modeling of the loss of the heat sink initiating event and sequences to better take into account the fact that this loss may be induced by external hazards and thus affect all the site units. The paper presents the historical steps of the modeling of the total loss of the heat sink, the safety stakes of this modeling, the main assumptions used by IRSN in the associated PSA for the 900 MWe reactors and the results obtained. The total loss of the heat sink was not initially addressed in the safety demonstration of French NPPs. On the basis of the insights of the first probabilistic assessments performed in the 80's, the risks associated to this 'multiple failure situation' turned out to be very significant and design and organisational improvements were implemented on the plants. Reviews of the characterization of external hazards and of their consequences on the installations and French operating feedback have revealed that extreme hazards may induce a total loss of the heat sink. Moreover, the accident that occurred at Fukushima in 2011 has pointed out the risk of such a loss of long duration at all site units in case of extreme hazards. In this context, it seems relevant to further improve the modelling of the total loss of the heat sink by considering the external hazards that may cause this loss. In a first step, IRSN has improved the assumptions and data used in the loss of the heat sink PSA model, in particular by considering that such a loss may affect all the site units. The next challenge will be the deeper analysis of the impact of external hazards on

Undetected latent failures of safety-related systems. Preliminary survey of events in nuclear power plants 1980-1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lydell, B. [RSA Technologies, Vista, CA (United States)

1998-03-01

This report summarizes results and insights from a preliminary survey of events involving undetected, latent failures of safety-related systems. The survey was limited to events where mispositioned equipment (e.g., valves, switches) remained undetected, thus rendering standby equipment or systems unavailable for short or long time periods. Typically, these events were symptoms of underlying latent errors (e.g., design errors, procedure errors, unanalyzed safety conditions) and programmatic errors. The preliminary survey identified well over 300 events. Of these, 95 events are documented in this report. Events involving mispositioned equipment are commonplace. Most events are discovered soon after occurrence, however. But as evidenced by the survey results, some events remained undetected beyond several shift changes. The recommendations developed by the survey emphasize the importance of applying modern root cause analysis techniques to the event analysis to ensure that the causes and implications of occurred events are fully understood. 7 refs, 4 tabs, 3 figs. Also available at the SKI Home page: //www.ski.se.

Data bank international of events of failure of common cause ICDE; Banco de datos internacional de sucesos de fallo de causa comum (ICDE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morales Castellanos, M. R.; Fernandez Andujar, B.; Pereira Pagan, M. B.

2013-07-01

Common Cause Failure (CCF) is a dependent event in which two or more components fail simultaneously or within a short space of time as a direct result of a shared common cause. Due to the low frequency of this type of events, some Member States of the Agency of Nuclear Energy (NEA) of the Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OECD) decided to create the project International Common-Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE) in order to encourage multilateral cooperation in the collection and analysis of data relating to CCF events.

Overview of results and perspectives from the Shoreham major common-cause initiating events study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joksimovich, V.; Orvis, D.D.; Paccione, R.J.

1986-01-01

This study represents the continuation of a large effort by LILCO to fully understand the potential hazards posed by future operation of the Shoreham Nuclear Power Stations (SNPS). The Shoreham Probabilistic Risk Assessment, a level 3 PRA without external events, provided a characterization of the accident sequences that could leave the core in a condition in which it would be vulnerable to severe damage if further mitigating actions were not taken. It estimated the frequency and magnitude of the potential radioactivity releases associated with such sequences. The study was limited to accident sequences initiated by so called internal events to the plant including a loss of offsite power. It also characterized the public risk associated with those accident sequences. The ''Major Common-Cause Initiating Events Study'' (MCCI) for the Shoreham plant was performed to obtain insights into the plant's susceptibility to, and inherent defenses against, certain MCCIs. Major common-cause initiating events are occurrences which have the potential to initiate a plant transient or LOCA and, also, damage one or more plant systems needed to mitigate the effects of a transient or LOCA. The scope of the MCCI study included detailed analyses of seismic events and fires through the severe core damage and bounding analyses of aircraft crashes, windstorms, turbine missiles and release of hazardous materials near the plant

42 CFR 433.113 - Reduction of FFP for failure to operate a system and obtain initial approval.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reduction of FFP for failure to operate a system... ADMINISTRATION Mechanized Claims Processing and Information Retrieval Systems § 433.113 Reduction of FFP for failure to operate a system and obtain initial approval. (a) Except as waived under § 433.130 or 433.131...

Uncertainty analysis with statistically correlated failure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modarres, M.; Dezfuli, H.; Roush, M.L.

1987-01-01

Likelihood of occurrence of the top event of a fault tree or sequences of an event tree is estimated from the failure probability of components that constitute the events of the fault/event tree. Component failure probabilities are subject to statistical uncertainties. In addition, there are cases where the failure data are statistically correlated. At present most fault tree calculations are based on uncorrelated component failure data. This chapter describes a methodology for assessing the probability intervals for the top event failure probability of fault trees or frequency of occurrence of event tree sequences when event failure data are statistically correlated. To estimate mean and variance of the top event, a second-order system moment method is presented through Taylor series expansion, which provides an alternative to the normally used Monte Carlo method. For cases where component failure probabilities are statistically correlated, the Taylor expansion terms are treated properly. Moment matching technique is used to obtain the probability distribution function of the top event through fitting the Johnson Ssub(B) distribution. The computer program, CORRELATE, was developed to perform the calculations necessary for the implementation of the method developed. (author)

Incidence of patient safety events and process-related human failures during intra-hospital transportation of patients: retrospective exploration from the institutional incident reporting system.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shu-Hui; Jerng, Jih-Shuin; Chen, Li-Chin; Li, Yu-Tsu; Huang, Hsiao-Fang; Wu, Chao-Ling; Chan, Jing-Yuan; Huang, Szu-Fen; Liang, Huey-Wen; Sun, Jui-Sheng

2017-11-03

Intra-hospital transportation (IHT) might compromise patient safety because of different care settings and higher demand on the human operation. Reports regarding the incidence of IHT-related patient safety events and human failures remain limited. To perform a retrospective analysis of IHT-related events, human failures and unsafe acts. A hospital-wide process for the IHT and database from the incident reporting system in a medical centre in Taiwan. All eligible IHT-related patient safety events between January 2010 to December 2015 were included. Incidence rate of IHT-related patient safety events, human failure modes, and types of unsafe acts. There were 206 patient safety events in 2 009 013 IHT sessions (102.5 per 1 000 000 sessions). Most events (n=148, 71.8%) did not involve patient harm, and process events (n=146, 70.9%) were most common. Events at the location of arrival (n=101, 49.0%) were most frequent; this location accounted for 61.0% and 44.2% of events with patient harm and those without harm, respectively (pprocess step was the preparation of the transportation team (n=91, 48.9%). Contributing unsafe acts included perceptual errors (n=14, 7.5%), decision errors (n=56, 30.1%), skill-based errors (n=48, 25.8%), and non-compliance (n=68, 36.6%). Multivariate analysis showed that human failure found in the arrival and hand-off sub-process (OR 4.84, pprocess at the location of arrival and prevent errors other than omissions. Long-term monitoring of IHT-related events is also warranted. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Containment performance evaluation for the GESSAR-II plant for seismic initiating events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiu, K.K.; Chu, T.; Ludewig, H.; Pratt, W.T.

1986-01-01

As a part of the overall effort undertaken by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to review the GESSAR-II probabilistic risk assessment, an independent containment performance evaluation was performed using the containment event tree approach. This evaluation focused principally on those accident sequences which are initiated by seismic events. This paper reports the findings of this study. 1 ref

Human initiated cascading failures in societal infrastructures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Barrett

Full Text Available In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of human-initiated cascading failures in three critical inter-dependent societal infrastructures due to behavioral adaptations in response to a crisis. We focus on three closely coupled socio-technical networks here: (i cellular and mesh networks, (ii transportation networks and (iii mobile call networks. In crises, changes in individual behaviors lead to altered travel, activity and calling patterns, which influence the transport network and the loads on wireless networks. The interaction between these systems and their co-evolution poses significant technical challenges for representing and reasoning about these systems. In contrast to system dynamics models for studying these interacting infrastructures, we develop interaction-based models in which individuals and infrastructure elements are represented in detail and are placed in a common geographic coordinate system. Using the detailed representation, we study the impact of a chemical plume that has been released in a densely populated urban region. Authorities order evacuation of the affected area, and this leads to individual behavioral adaptation wherein individuals drop their scheduled activities and drive to home or pre-specified evacuation shelters as appropriate. They also revise their calling behavior to communicate and coordinate among family members. These two behavioral adaptations cause flash-congestion in the urban transport network and the wireless network. The problem is exacerbated with a few, already occurring, road closures. We analyze how extended periods of unanticipated road congestion can result in failure of infrastructures, starting with the servicing base stations in the congested area. A sensitivity analysis on the compliance rate of evacuees shows non-intuitive effect on the spatial distribution of people and on the loading of the base stations. For example, an evacuation compliance rate of 70% results in higher number

Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei

2014-05-01

Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

Overview of AEOD's program for trending reactor operational events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranowsky, P.W.; O'Reilly, P.D.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Houghton, J.R.

1994-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the trending program being performed by AEOD. The major elements of the program include: (1) system and component reliability trending and analysis, (2) special data collection and analysis (e.g., IPE and PRA component failure data, common cause failure event data), (3) risk assessment of safety issues based on actual operating experience, (4) Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program, and (5) trending US industry risk. AEOD plans to maintain up-to-date safety data trends for selected high risk or high regulatory profile components, systems, accident initiators, accident sequences, and regulatory issues. AEOD will also make greater use of PRA insights and perform limited probabilistic safety assessments to evaluate the safety significance of qualitative results. Examples of a system study and an issue evaluation are presented, as well as a summary of the common cause failure event database

Heart failure as an endpoint in heart failure and non-heart failure cardiovascular clinical trials: the need for a consensus definition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zannad, F.; Stough, W.G.; Pitt, B.

2008-01-01

Specific criteria have been established to define the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in cardiovascular clinical trials, but there is not a consistent definition for heart failure. Heart failure events appear to occur at a rate that is similar to stroke and MI in trials...... of hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes, and coronary heart disease, yet a consistent approach to defining heart failure events has not yet been realized. The wide range of definitions used in clinical trials makes it difficult to interpret new data in the context of existing literature. This inconsistency has...... led to challenges in determining the incidence of heart failure in cardiovascular studies and the effects of interventions on these endpoints. This paper examines issues related to defining heart failure events in cardiovascular clinical trials and presents a definition to formally address this issue...

A Dynamic Approach to Modeling Dependence Between Human Failure Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory

2015-09-01

In practice, most HRA methods use direct dependence from THERP—the notion that error be- gets error, and one human failure event (HFE) may increase the likelihood of subsequent HFEs. In this paper, we approach dependence from a simulation perspective in which the effects of human errors are dynamically modeled. There are three key concepts that play into this modeling: (1) Errors are driven by performance shaping factors (PSFs). In this context, the error propagation is not a result of the presence of an HFE yielding overall increases in subsequent HFEs. Rather, it is shared PSFs that cause dependence. (2) PSFs have qualities of lag and latency. These two qualities are not currently considered in HRA methods that use PSFs. Yet, to model the effects of PSFs, it is not simply a matter of identifying the discrete effects of a particular PSF on performance. The effects of PSFs must be considered temporally, as the PSFs will have a range of effects across the event sequence. (3) Finally, there is the concept of error spilling. When PSFs are activated, they not only have temporal effects but also lateral effects on other PSFs, leading to emergent errors. This paper presents the framework for tying together these dynamic dependence concepts.

1988 failure rate screening data for fusion reliability and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.; Piet, S.J.

1988-01-01

This document contains failure rate screening data for application to fusion components. The screening values are generally fission or aerospace industry failure rate estimates that can be extrapolated for use by fusion system designers, reliability engineers and risk analysts. Failure rate estimates for tritium-bearing systems, liquid metal-cooled systems, gas-cooled systems, water-cooled systems and containment systems are given. Preliminary system availability estimates and selected initiating event frequency estimates are presented. This first edition document is valuable to design and safety analysis for the Compact Ignition Tokamak and the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. 20 refs., 28 tabs

Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assesment with Malevolent Initiators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Curtis; Schwieder, David

2011-01-01

As commonly practiced, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in nuclear power plants only considers accident initiators such as natural hazards, equipment failures, and human error. Malevolent initiators are ignored in PRA, but are considered the domain of physical security, which uses vulnerability assessment based on an officially specified threat (design basis threat). This paper explores the implications of augmenting and extending existing PRA models by considering new and modified scenarios resulting from malevolent initiators. Teaming the augmented PRA models with conventional vulnerability assessments can cost-effectively enhance security of a nuclear power plant. This methodology is useful for operating plants, as well as in the design of new plants. For the methodology, we have proposed an approach that builds on and extends the practice of PRA for nuclear power plants for security-related issues. Rather than only considering 'random' failures, we demonstrated a framework that is able to represent and model malevolent initiating events and associated plant impacts.

Method to Find Recovery Event Combinations in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Woo Sik; Riley, Jeff

2016-01-01

These research activities may develop mathematical methods, engineering analyses, and business processes. The research activities of the project covered by this scope are directed toward the specific issues of implementing the methods and strategies on a computational platform, identifying the features and enhancements to EPRI tools that would be necessary to realize significant improvements to the risk assessments performed by the end user. Fault tree analysis is extensively and successfully applied to the risk assessment of safety-critical systems such as nuclear, chemical and aerospace systems. The fault tree analysis is being used together with an event tree analysis in PSA of nuclear power plants. Fault tree solvers for a PSA are mostly based on the cutset-based algorithm. They generate minimal cut sets (MCSs) from a fault tree. The most popular fault tree solver in the PSA industry is FTREX. During the course of this project, certain technical issues (see Sections 2 to 5) have been identified that need to be addressed regarding how minimal cut sets are generated and quantified. The objective of this scope of the work was to develop new methods or techniques to address these technical limitations. By turning on all the cutset initiators (%1, %2, %3, %), all the possible minimal cut sets can be calculated easier than with the original fault tree. It is accomplished by the fact that the number of events in the minimal cut sets are significantly reduced by using cutset initiators instead of random failure events. And byy turning on a few chosen cutset initiators and turning off the other cutset initiators, minimal cut sets of the selected cutset initiator(s) can be easily calculated. As explained in the previous Sections, there is no way to calculate these minimal cut sets by turning off/on the random failure events in the original fault tree

Method to Find Recovery Event Combinations in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Woo Sik [Sejong University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Riley, Jeff [Electric Power Research, Palo Alto (United States)

2016-05-15

These research activities may develop mathematical methods, engineering analyses, and business processes. The research activities of the project covered by this scope are directed toward the specific issues of implementing the methods and strategies on a computational platform, identifying the features and enhancements to EPRI tools that would be necessary to realize significant improvements to the risk assessments performed by the end user. Fault tree analysis is extensively and successfully applied to the risk assessment of safety-critical systems such as nuclear, chemical and aerospace systems. The fault tree analysis is being used together with an event tree analysis in PSA of nuclear power plants. Fault tree solvers for a PSA are mostly based on the cutset-based algorithm. They generate minimal cut sets (MCSs) from a fault tree. The most popular fault tree solver in the PSA industry is FTREX. During the course of this project, certain technical issues (see Sections 2 to 5) have been identified that need to be addressed regarding how minimal cut sets are generated and quantified. The objective of this scope of the work was to develop new methods or techniques to address these technical limitations. By turning on all the cutset initiators (%1, %2, %3, %), all the possible minimal cut sets can be calculated easier than with the original fault tree. It is accomplished by the fact that the number of events in the minimal cut sets are significantly reduced by using cutset initiators instead of random failure events. And byy turning on a few chosen cutset initiators and turning off the other cutset initiators, minimal cut sets of the selected cutset initiator(s) can be easily calculated. As explained in the previous Sections, there is no way to calculate these minimal cut sets by turning off/on the random failure events in the original fault tree.

Initial-state parton shower kinematics for NLO event generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odaka, Shigeru; Kurihara, Yoshimasa

2007-01-01

We are developing a consistent method to combine tree-level event generators for hadron collision interactions with those including one additional QCD radiation from the initial-state partons, based on the limited leading-log (LLL) subtraction method, aiming at an application to NLO event generators. In this method, a boundary between non-radiative and radiative processes necessarily appears at the factorization scale (μ F ). The radiation effects are simulated using a parton shower (PS) in non-radiative processes. It is therefore crucial in our method to apply a PS which well reproduces the radiation activities evaluated from the matrix-element (ME) calculations for radiative processes. The PS activity depends on the applied kinematics model. In this paper we introduce two models for our simple initial-state leading-log PS: a model similar to the 'old' PYTHIA-PS and a p T -prefixed model motivated by ME calculations. PS simulations employing these models are tested using W-boson production at LHC as an example. Both simulations show a smooth matching to the LLL subtracted W+1 jet simulation in the p T distribution of W bosons, and the summed p T spectra are stable against a variation of μ F , despite that the p T -prefixed PS results in an apparently harder p T spectrum. (orig.)

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1991-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1990-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Dependent failure analysis of NPP data bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, S.E.; Lofgren, E.V.; Samanta, P.K.; Wong Seemeng

1993-01-01

A technical approach for analyzing plant-specific data bases for vulnerabilities to dependent failures has been developed and applied. Since the focus of this work is to aid in the formulation of defenses to dependent failures, rather than to quantify dependent failure probabilities, the approach of this analysis is critically different. For instance, the determination of component failure dependencies has been based upon identical failure mechanisms related to component piecepart failures, rather than failure modes. Also, component failures involving all types of component function loss (e.g., catastrophic, degraded, incipient) are equally important to the predictive purposes of dependent failure defense development. Consequently, dependent component failures are identified with a different dependent failure definition which uses a component failure mechanism categorization scheme in this study. In this context, clusters of component failures which satisfy the revised dependent failure definition are termed common failure mechanism (CFM) events. Motor-operated valves (MOVs) in two nuclear power plant data bases have been analyzed with this approach. The analysis results include seven different failure mechanism categories; identified potential CFM events; an assessment of the risk-significance of the potential CFM events using existing probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs); and postulated defenses to the identified potential CFM events. (orig.)

Potentially damaging failure modes of high- and medium-voltage electrical equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoy, H.C.

1984-01-01

The high- and medium-voltage electrical equipment failures of both nuclear and nonnuclear electric utilities have been reviewed for possible disruptive failure modes that would be of special concern in a nuclear power plant. The resulting emphasis was on the electrical faults of transformers, switchgear (circuit breakers), lightning (surge) arrestors, high-voltage cabling and buswork, control boards, and other electrical equipment that, through failure, can be the initiating event that may expand the original fault to nearby or associated equipment. Many failures of such equipment were found and documented, although the failure rate of electrical equipment in utilities is historically quite low. Nuclear plants record too few failures to be statistically valid, but failures that have been recorded show that good design usually restricts the failure to a single piece of equipment. Conclusions and recommendations pertaining to the design, maintenance, and operation of the affected electrical equipment are presented

A study on the determination of threshold values for the initiating event performance indicators of domestic nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. I.; Park, J. H.; Kim, K. Y.; Whang, M. J.; Yang, J. E.; Sung, G. Y.

2003-01-01

In this paper, we determine the threshold values of unplanned reactor scram, domestic initiating event performance indicator, using data of domestic unplanned reactor scram and probabilistic safety assessment model of Korea Standard Nuclear Power Plant(KSNP). We also perform a pilot study of initiating event Risk Based Performance Indicator(RBPI) for KSNP. Study results for unplanned reactor scram show that the threshold value of between green and blue color is 3, that of between blue and yellow color is 6, and that of between yellow and orange color is 30. Pilot study results of initiating event RBPI show that loss of feedwater, transient, and loss of component cooling water events are selected as initiating event RBPI for KSNP

Analytical criteria for fuel failure modes observed in reactivity initiated accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxat, J.C.

2005-01-01

The behaviour of nuclear fuel subjected to a short duration power pulse is of relevance to LWR and CANDU reactor safety. A Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) in an LWR would subject fuel to a short duration power pulse of large amplitude, whereas in CANDU a large break Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) would subject fuel to a longer duration, lower amplitude power excursion. The energy generated in the fuel during the power pulse is a key parameter governing the fuel response. This paper reviews the various power pulse tests that have been conducted in research reactors over the past three decades and summarizes the fuel failure modes that that have been observed in these tests. A simple analytical model is developed to characterize fuel behaviour under power pulse conditions and the model is applied to assess the experimental data from the power pulse tests. It is shown that the simple model provides a good basis for establishing criteria that demarcate the observed fuel failure modes for the various fuel designs that have been used in these tests. (author)

Correlation of consecutive serum thyroglobulin levels during hormone withdrawal and failure of initial radioiodine ablation in thyroid cancer patients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoon, Hyuk Jin; Kim, Sung Hoon; O, Joo Hyun; Lee, Yeong Joo; Kim, Hyoung Woo [Dept. of Radiology, Seoul St. Mary' s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seo, Ye Young [Dept. of Nuclear Medicine, College of Medicine, The Inje University Sanggye Paik Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Ji Young [Dept. of Radiology, Incheon St. Mary' s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-12-15

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of thyroglobulin (Tg) kinetics during preparation of radioiodine ablation for prediction of initial radioiodine ablation failure in thyroid cancer patients. Thyroid cancer patients after total thyroidectomy who underwent radioiodine ablation with 3–4 weeks of hormone withdrawal between May 2011 and January 2012 were included. Consecutive serum Tg levels 5–10 days before ablation (Tg1) and on the day of ablation (Tg2) were obtained. The difference between Tg1 and Tg2 (ΔTg), daily change rate of Tg (ΔTg/day) and Tg doubling time (Tg-DT) were calculated. Success of initial ablation was determined by the results of the follow-up ultrasonography, diagnostic radioiodine scan and stimulated Tg level after 6 to 20 months. A total of 143 patients were included. Failed ablation was reported in 52 patients. Tg2 higher than 5.6 ng/ml and Tg-DT shorter than 4.2 days were significantly related to a high risk of ablation failure. ΔTg and ΔTg/day did not show significant correlation with ablation failure. Thyroglobulin kinetics on consecutive blood sampling during hormone withdrawal may be helpful in predicting patients with higher risk of treatment failure of initial radioiodine ablation therapy in thyroid cancer patients.

Correlation of consecutive serum thyroglobulin levels during hormone withdrawal and failure of initial radioiodine ablation in thyroid cancer patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Hyuk Jin; Kim, Sung Hoon; O, Joo Hyun; Lee, Yeong Joo; Kim, Hyoung Woo; Seo, Ye Young; Ryu, Ji Young

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of thyroglobulin (Tg) kinetics during preparation of radioiodine ablation for prediction of initial radioiodine ablation failure in thyroid cancer patients. Thyroid cancer patients after total thyroidectomy who underwent radioiodine ablation with 3–4 weeks of hormone withdrawal between May 2011 and January 2012 were included. Consecutive serum Tg levels 5–10 days before ablation (Tg1) and on the day of ablation (Tg2) were obtained. The difference between Tg1 and Tg2 (ΔTg), daily change rate of Tg (ΔTg/day) and Tg doubling time (Tg-DT) were calculated. Success of initial ablation was determined by the results of the follow-up ultrasonography, diagnostic radioiodine scan and stimulated Tg level after 6 to 20 months. A total of 143 patients were included. Failed ablation was reported in 52 patients. Tg2 higher than 5.6 ng/ml and Tg-DT shorter than 4.2 days were significantly related to a high risk of ablation failure. ΔTg and ΔTg/day did not show significant correlation with ablation failure. Thyroglobulin kinetics on consecutive blood sampling during hormone withdrawal may be helpful in predicting patients with higher risk of treatment failure of initial radioiodine ablation therapy in thyroid cancer patients

Coping with adverse drug events in patients with heart failure : Exploring the role of medication beliefs and perceptions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Smedt, R. H.; Jaarsma, T.; Ranchor, A. V.; van der Meer, K.; Groenier, K. H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F. M.; Denig, P.

2012-01-01

This study describes coping strategies that patients with heart failure (HF) use to manage adverse drug events (ADEs). The included coping strategies were social support seeking, information seeking, non-adherence and taking alleviating medication. The role of beliefs about medication and ADE

Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall-runoff modelling

OpenAIRE

Tramblay, Yves; Bouvier, Christophe; Martin, C.; Didon-Lescot, J. F.; Todorovik, D.; Domergue, J. M.

2010-01-01

Flash floods are the most destructive natural hazards that occur in the Mediterranean region. Rainfall-runoff models can be very useful for flash flood forecasting and prediction. Event-based models are very popular for operational purposes, but there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the initial moisture conditions estimation prior to a flood event. This paper aims to compare several soil moisture indicators: local Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements of soil moisture,...

Controls on shallow landslide initiation: Diverse hydrologic pathways, 3D failure geometries, and unsaturated soil suctions

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Mark; Iverson, Richard; Brien, Dianne; Iverson, Neal; LaHusen, Richard; Logan, Matthew

2017-04-01

Shallow landslides and ensuing debris flows are a common hazard worldwide, yet forecasting their initiation at a specific site is challenging. These challenges arise, in part, from diverse near-surface hydrologic pathways under different wetting conditions, 3D failure geometries, and the effects of suction in partially saturated soils. Simplistic hydrologic models typically used for regional hazard assessment disregard these complexities. As an alterative to field studies where the effects of these governing factors can be difficult to isolate, we used the USGS debris-flow flume to conduct controlled, field-scale landslide initiation experiments. Using overhead sprinklers or groundwater injectors on the flume bed, we triggered failures using three different wetting conditions: groundwater inflow from below, prolonged moderate-intensity precipitation, and bursts of high-intensity precipitation. Failures occurred in 6 m3 (0.65-m thick and 2-m wide) prisms of loamy sand on a 31° slope; these field-scale failures enabled realistic incorporation of nonlinear scale-dependent effects such as soil suction. During the experiments, we monitored soil deformation, variably saturated pore pressures, and moisture changes using ˜50 sensors sampling at 20 Hz. From ancillary laboratory tests, we determined shear strength, saturated hydraulic conductivities, and unsaturated moisture retention characteristics. The three different wetting conditions noted above led to different hydrologic pathways and influenced instrumental responses and failure timing. During groundwater injection, pore-water pressures increased from the bed of the flume upwards into the sediment, whereas prolonged moderate infiltration wet the sediment from the ground surface downward. In both cases, pore pressures acting on the impending failure surface slowly rose until abrupt failure. In contrast, a burst of intense sprinkling caused rapid failure without precursory development of widespread positive pore

Safety relevant failure mechanisms in the post-operational phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mayer, Gerhard; Stiller, Jan Christopher; Roemer, Sarah

2017-03-01

. Finally, national and international operating experience was evaluated with the aim to derive general failure mechanisms from events that have occurred. For this purpose, the database of German reportable events (VERA), the database of the OECD/NEA ''International Common-cause Data Exchange (ICDE)'' project as well as the database of the ''International Reporting Systems for Operating Experience (IRS)'' of the IAEA was searched. As these data sources comprise a total number of about 12,000 events, initially the evaluation focused on the 309 events that occurred in plants that are in the post operation or decommissioning phase. In order to capture events from power operation whose damage phenomena have special relevance for post operation, too, attempts were made to develop automatic searches that would deliver a pre-selection of relevant results. To evaluate this method, 900 events from a German twin unit plant over a period from their construction until the present were analysed manually. It turned out that an automated search did not deliver enveloping results. All in all, 12 events from German plants in post operation or decommissioning and 36 events from plants with power operation licences as well as 6 events from international operating experience (IRS and ICDE) which showed a failure mechanism with special relevance for the post operation phase were identified. The events were presented individually, with special emphasis on the description of the failure mechanism that was particularly relevant for post operation. The failure mechanisms identified can be allocated to the following three general categories: special operating modes; changed operating or ambient conditions; organisational and personnel boundary conditions. The failure mechanisms assigned to these categories are presented in a summarized form and discussed.

Insomnia Self-Management in Heart Failure

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-05

Cardiac Failure; Heart Failure; Congestive Heart Failure; Heart Failure, Congestive; Sleep Initiation and Maintenance Disorders; Chronic Insomnia; Disorders of Initiating and Maintaining Sleep; Fatigue; Pain; Depressive Symptoms; Sleep Disorders; Anxiety

Top-down and bottom-up definitions of human failure events in human reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boring, Ronald Laurids

2014-01-01

In the probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question is crucial, however, as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PRAs tend to be top-down - defined as a subset of the PRA - whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) often tend to be bottom-up - derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications.

Apixaban: Effective and Safe in Preventing Thromboembolic Events in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Renal Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Cortese, Francesca; Scicchitano, Pietro; Gesualdo, Michele; Ricci, Gabriella; Carbonara, Santa; Franchini, Carlo; Pia Schiavone, Brigida Immacolata; Corbo, Filomena; Ciccone, Marco Matteo

2017-11-17

Thromboembolic events, principally stroke, represent one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among subjects with atrial fibrillation. Chronic kidney disease determines a further increase of thromboembolic events, bleeding and mortality and complicates the pharmacological management of patients with atrial fibrillation, mainly due to the side effects of antiarrhythmic and anticoagulant drugs with renal excretion. Apixaban is a new oral anticoagulant characterized by good bioavailability and renal elimination accounting for only 25%, showing a safety profile and effectiveness in patients with renal impairment. In this manuscript, we reviewed literature data on the use of apixaban in the management of non-valvular atrial fibrillation in patients with renal failure, in order to clarify an often-debated topic in clinical practice. A PubMed search was performed on the terms atrial fibrillation, apixaban and renal failure with the aim of identifying relevant manuscripts, large randomized clinical trials, meta-analyses, and current guidelines. Literature data show that apixaban could represent an interesting alternative to warfarin and other selective antagonists of coagulation factors in patients with impaired renal function. About the risk of major bleeding, apixaban appears to be safer than warfarin in the presence of any degree of renal failure. Apixaban show to be an effective anticoagulant in patients with atrial fibrillation, even superior to warfarin in reducing the risk of stroke and systemic embolism regardless of the presence of renal insufficiency. Moreover, Food and Drug Administration allows the use of apixaban in patients with end stage renal disease on hemodialysis. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

A simple approach to modeling ductile failure.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wellman, Gerald William

2012-06-01

Sandia National Laboratories has the need to predict the behavior of structures after the occurrence of an initial failure. In some cases determining the extent of failure, beyond initiation, is required, while in a few cases the initial failure is a design feature used to tailor the subsequent load paths. In either case, the ability to numerically simulate the initiation and propagation of failures is a highly desired capability. This document describes one approach to the simulation of failure initiation and propagation.

Identification of human-induced initiating events in the low power and shutdown operation using the commission error search and assessment method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yong Chan; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2015-03-15

Human-induced initiating events, also called Category B actions in human reliability analysis, are operator actions that may lead directly to initiating events. Most conventional probabilistic safety analyses typically assume that the frequency of initiating events also includes the probability of human-induced initiating events. However, some regulatory documents require Category B actions to be specifically analyzed and quantified in probabilistic safety analysis. An explicit modeling of Category B actions could also potentially lead to important insights into human performance in terms of safety. However, there is no standard procedure to identify Category B actions. This paper describes a systematic procedure to identify Category B actions for low power and shutdown conditions. The procedure includes several steps to determine operator actions that may lead to initiating events in the low power and shutdown stages. These steps are the selection of initiating events, the selection of systems or components, the screening of unlikely operating actions, and the quantification of initiating events. The procedure also provides the detailed instruction for each step, such as operator's action, information required, screening rules, and the outputs. Finally, the applicability of the suggested approach is also investigated by application to a plant example.

Event-By-Event Initial Conditions for Heavy Ion Collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, S; Fries, R J

2017-01-01

The early time dynamics of heavy ion collisions can be described by classical fields in an approximation of Quantum ChromoDynamics (QCD) called Color Glass Condensate (CGC). Monte-Carlo sampling of the color charge for the incoming nuclei are used to calculate their classical gluon fields. Following the recent work by Chen et al. we calculate the energy momentum tensor of those fields at early times in the collision event-by-event. This can then be used for subsequent hydrodynamic evolution of the single events. (paper)

Event-By-Event Initial Conditions for Heavy Ion Collisions

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, S.; Fries, R. J.

2017-04-01

The early time dynamics of heavy ion collisions can be described by classical fields in an approximation of Quantum ChromoDynamics (QCD) called Color Glass Condensate (CGC). Monte-Carlo sampling of the color charge for the incoming nuclei are used to calculate their classical gluon fields. Following the recent work by Chen et al. we calculate the energy momentum tensor of those fields at early times in the collision event-by-event. This can then be used for subsequent hydrodynamic evolution of the single events.

Identification of initiating events using a master logic diagram in low-power and shutdown PSA for nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, S. J.; Park, J. H.; Kim, T. W.; Ha, J. J.

2003-01-01

It is necessary to apply a formal technique instead of an empirical technique in the identification of initiating events for Low Power and ShutDown (LPSD) Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The present study focuses on the examination of Master Logic Diagram (MLD) technique as a formal technique in the identification of initiating events. The MLD technique is a deductive tool using top-down approach for the formal and logical indentification of initiating events. The present study modified the MLD used in the full power PSA considering the characteristics of LPSD operation. The modified MLD introduced a systematic formation in decomposition process of which the MLD for full power PSA lacked. The modified MLD was able to identify initiating events systematic and logical. However, the formal techniques including the MLD have a limitation for precisely identifying all of the initiating events. In order to overcome this limitation, it is necessary to combine it with an empirical technique. We expect that the modified MLD can be used in an upgrade of the current LPSD PSAs

Heart Failure

OpenAIRE

McMurray, John; Ponikowski, Piotr

2011-01-01

Heart failure occurs in 3% to 4% of adults aged over 65 years, usually as a consequence of coronary artery disease or hypertension, and causes breathlessness, effort intolerance, fluid retention, and increased mortality. The 5-year mortality in people with systolic heart failure ranges from 25% to 75%, often owing to sudden death following ventricular arrhythmia. Risks of cardiovascular events are increased in people with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) or heart failure.

On the importance of analyzing flood defense failures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Özer Işıl Ece

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flood defense failures are rare events but when they do occur lead to significant amounts of damage. The defenses are usually designed for rather low-frequency hydraulic loading and as such typically at least high enough to prevent overflow. When they fail, flood defenses like levees built with modern design codes usually either fail due to wave overtopping or geotechnical failure mechanisms such as instability or internal erosion. Subsequently geotechnical failures could trigger an overflow leading for the breach to grow in size Not only the conditions relevant for these failure mechanisms are highly uncertain, also the model uncertainty in geomechanical, internal erosion models, or breach models are high compared to other structural models. Hence, there is a need for better validation and calibration of models or, in other words, better insight in model uncertainty. As scale effects typically play an important role and full-scale testing is challenging and costly, historic flood defense failures can be used to provide insights into the real failure processes and conditions. The recently initiated SAFElevee project at Delft University of Technology aims to exploit this source of information by performing back analysis of levee failures at different level of detail. Besides detailed process based analyses, the project aims to investigate spatial and temporal patterns in deformation as a function of the hydrodynamic loading using satellite radar interferometry (i.e. PS-InSAR in order to examine its relation with levee failure mechanisms. The project aims to combine probabilistic approaches with the mechanics of the various relevant failure mechanisms to reduce model uncertainty and propose improvements to assessment and design models. This paper describes the approach of the study to levee breach analysis and the use of satellites for breach initiation analysis, both adopted within the SAFElevee project.

Snow fracture: From micro-cracking to global failure

Science.gov (United States)

Capelli, Achille; Reiweger, Ingrid; Schweizer, Jürg

2017-04-01

Slab avalanches are caused by a crack forming and propagating in a weak layer within the snow cover, which eventually causes the detachment of the overlying cohesive slab. The gradual damage process leading to the nucleation of the initial failure is still not entirely understood. Therefore, we studied the damage process preceding snow failure by analyzing the acoustic emissions (AE) generated by bond failure or micro-cracking. The AE allow studying the ongoing progressive failure in a non-destructive way. We performed fully load-controlled failure experiments on snow samples presenting a weak layer and recorded the generated AE. The size and frequency of the generated AE increased before failure revealing an acceleration of the damage process with increased size and frequency of damage and/or microscopic cracks. The AE energy was power-law distributed and the exponent (b-value) decreased approaching failure. The waiting time followed an exponential distribution with increasing exponential coefficient λ before failure. The decrease of the b-value and the increase of λ correspond to a change in the event distribution statistics indicating a transition from homogeneously distributed uncorrelated damage producing mostly small AE to localized damage, which cause larger correlated events which leads to brittle failure. We observed brittle failure for the fast experiment and a more ductile behavior for the slow experiments. This rate dependence was reflected also in the AE signature. In the slow experiments the b value and λ were almost constant, and the energy rate increase was moderate indicating that the damage process was in a stable state - suggesting the damage and healing processes to be balanced. On a shorter time scale, however, the AE parameters varied indicating that the damage process was not steady but consisted of a sum of small bursts. We assume that the bursts may have been generated by cascades of correlated micro-cracks caused by localization of

CRITICAL EVENTS IN CONSTRUCTION PROCESS

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kirsten; Rasmussen, Grane Mikael Gregaard

2009-01-01

cause-effects of failures and defects in the construction industry by using an analytical approach (The bowtie model) which is developed in the accident research. Using this model clarifies the relationships within the chain of failures that causes critical events with undesirable consequences......Function failures, defects and poor communication are major problems in the construction industry. These failures and defects are caused by a row of critical events in the construction process. The purpose of this paper is to define “critical events” in the construction process and to investigate....... In this way the causes of failures and the relationships between various failures are rendered visible. A large construction site was observed from start to finish as the empirical element in the research. The research focuses on all kinds of critical events identified throughout every phase during...

Analysis and modeling of flow blockage-induced steam explosion events in the High-Flux Isotope Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Georgevich, V.; Lestor, C.W.; Gat, U.; Lepard, B.L.; Cook, D.H.; Freels, J.; Chang, S.J.; Luttrell, C.; Gwaltney, R.C.; Kirkpatrick, J.

1993-01-01

This paper provides a perspective overview of the analysis and modeling work done to evaluate the threat from steam explosion loads in the High-Flux Isotope Reactor during flow blockage events. The overall workscope included modeling and analysis of core melt initiation, melt propagation, bounding and best-estimate steam explosion energetics, vessel failure from fracture, bolts failure from exceedance of elastic limits, and finally, missile evolution and transport. Aluminum ignition was neglected. Evaluations indicated that a thermally driven steam explosion with more than 65 MJ of energy insertion in the core region over several miliseconds would be needed to cause a sufficiently energetic missile with a capacity to cause early confinement failure. This amounts to about 65% of the HFIR core mass melting and participating in a steam explosion. Conservative melt propagation analyses have indicated that at most only 24% of the HFIR core mass could melt during flow blockage events under full-power conditions. Therefore, it is judged that the HFIR vessel and top head structure will be able to withstand loads generated from thermally driven steam explosions initiated by any credible flow blockage event. A substantial margin to safety was demonstrated

Non-selective vs. selective beta-blocker treatment and the risk of thrombo-embolic events in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Peuter, Olav R.; Souverein, Patrick C.; Klungel, Olaf H.; Büller, Harry R.; de Boer, Anthonius; Kamphuisen, Pieter W.

2011-01-01

Aims Heart failure (HF) is associated with a prothrombotic state, resulting in an increased risk for thrombo-embolic events. Studies suggest a reduced prothrombotic state when non-selective beta-blockers relative to selective beta-blockers are given. We studied the influence of non-selective

PRELIMINARY SELECTION OF MGR DESIGN BASIS EVENTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kappes, J.A.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to identify the preliminary design basis events (DBEs) for consideration in the design of the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR). For external events and natural phenomena (e.g., earthquake), the objective is to identify those initiating events that the MGR will be designed to withstand. Design criteria will ensure that radiological release scenarios resulting from these initiating events are beyond design basis (i.e., have a scenario frequency less than once per million years). For internal (i.e., human-induced and random equipment failures) events, the objective is to identify credible event sequences that result in bounding radiological releases. These sequences will be used to establish the design basis criteria for MGR structures, systems, and components (SSCs) design basis criteria in order to prevent or mitigate radiological releases. The safety strategy presented in this analysis for preventing or mitigating DBEs is based on the preclosure safety strategy outlined in ''Strategy to Mitigate Preclosure Offsite Exposure'' (CRWMS M andO 1998f). DBE analysis is necessary to provide feedback and requirements to the design process, and also to demonstrate compliance with proposed 10 CFR 63 (Dyer 1999b) requirements. DBE analysis is also required to identify and classify the SSCs that are important to safety (ITS)

Probabilistic analysis of ''common mode failures''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Easterling, R.G.

1978-01-01

Common mode failure is a topic of considerable interest in reliability and safety analyses of nuclear reactors. Common mode failures are often discussed in terms of examples: two systems fail simultaneously due to an external event such as an earthquake; two components in redundant channels fail because of a common manufacturing defect; two systems fail because a component common to both fails; the failure of one system increases the stress on other systems and they fail. The common thread running through these is a dependence of some sort--statistical or physical--among multiple failure events. However, the nature of the dependence is not the same in all these examples. An attempt is made to model situations, such as the above examples, which have been termed ''common mode failures.'' In doing so, it is found that standard probability concepts and terms, such as statistically dependent and independent events, and conditional and unconditional probabilities, suffice. Thus, it is proposed that the term ''common mode failures'' be dropped, at least from technical discussions of these problems. A corollary is that the complementary term, ''random failures,'' should also be dropped. The mathematical model presented may not cover all situations which have been termed ''common mode failures,'' but provides insight into the difficulty of obtaining estimates of the probabilities of these events

Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

1987-01-01

This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current US innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery

BACFIRE, Minimal Cut Sets Common Cause Failure Fault Tree Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fussell, J.B.

1983-01-01

1 - Description of problem or function: BACFIRE, designed to aid in common cause failure analysis, searches among the basic events of a minimal cut set of the system logic model for common potential causes of failure. The potential cause of failure is called a qualitative failure characteristics. The algorithm searches qualitative failure characteristics (that are part of the program input) of the basic events contained in a set to find those characteristics common to all basic events. This search is repeated for all cut sets input to the program. Common cause failure analysis is thereby performed without inclusion of secondary failure in the system logic model. By using BACFIRE, a common cause failure analysis can be added to an existing system safety and reliability analysis. 2 - Method of solution: BACFIRE searches the qualitative failure characteristics of the basic events contained in the fault tree minimal cut set to find those characteristics common to all basic events by either of two criteria. The first criterion can be met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are associated by a condition which alone may increase the probability of multiple component malfunction. The second criterion is met if all the basic events in a minimal cut set are susceptible to the same secondary failure cause and are located in the same domain for that cause of secondary failure. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 1001 secondary failure maps, 101 basic events, 10 cut sets

Immune mediated liver failure

OpenAIRE

Wang, Xiaojing; Ning, Qin

2014-01-01

Liver failure is a clinical syndrome of various etiologies, manifesting as jaundice, encephalopathy, coagulopathy and circulatory dysfunction, which result in subsequent multiorgan failure. Clinically, liver failure is classified into four categories: acute, subacute, acute-on-chronic and chronic liver failure. Massive hepatocyte death is considered to be the core event in the development of liver failure, which occurs when the extent of hepatocyte death is beyond the liver regenerative capac...

Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood

2006-01-01

In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank

An Initiating-Event Analysis for PSA of Hanul Units 3 and 4: Results and Insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong-San; Park, Jin Hee

2015-01-01

As a part of the PSA, an initiating-event (IE) analysis was newly performed by considering the current state of knowledge and the requirements of the ASME/ANS probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) standard related to IE analysis. This paper describes the methods of, results and some insights from the IE analysis for the PSA of the Hanul units 3 and 4. In this study, as a part of the PSA for the Hanul units 3 and 4, an initiating-event (IE) analysis was newly performed by considering the current state of knowledge and the requirements of the ASME/ANS probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) standard. In comparison with the previous IE analysis, this study performed a more systematic and detailed analysis to identify potential initiating events, and calculated the IE frequencies by using the state-of-the-art methods and the latest data. As a result, not a few IE frequencies are quite different from the previous frequencies, which can change the major accident sequences obtained from the quantification of the PSA model

Initiating events study of the first extraction cycle process in a model reprocessing plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Renze; Zhang, Jian Gang; Zhuang, Dajie; Feng, Zong Yang [China Institute for Radiation Protection, Taiyuan (China)

2016-06-15

Definition and grouping of initiating events (IEs) are important basics for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). An IE in a spent fuel reprocessing plant (SFRP) is an event that probably leads to the release of dangerous material to jeopardize workers, public and environment. The main difference between SFRPs and nuclear power plants (NPPs) is that hazard materials spread diffusely in a SFRP and radioactive material is just one kind of hazard material. Since the research on IEs for NPPs is in-depth around the world, there are several general methods to identify IEs: reference of lists in existence, review of experience feedback, qualitative analysis method, and deductive analysis method. While failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an important qualitative analysis method, master logic diagram (MLD) method is the deductive analysis method. IE identification in SFRPs should be consulted with the experience of NPPs, however the differences between SFRPs and NPPs should be considered seriously. The plutonium uranium reduction extraction (Purex) process is adopted by the technics in a model reprocessing plant. The first extraction cycle (FEC) is the pivotal process in the Purex process. Whether the FEC can function safely and steadily would directly influence the production process of the whole plant-production quality. Important facilities of the FEC are installed in the equipment cells (ECs). In this work, IEs in the FEC process were identified and categorized by FMEA and MLD two methods, based on the fact that ECs are containments in the plant. The results show that only two ECs in the FEC do not need to be concerned particularly with safety problems, and criticality, fire and red oil explosion are IEs which should be emphatically analyzed. The results are accordant with the references.

One Size Does Not Fit All: Human Failure Event Decomposition and Task Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ronald Laurids Boring, PhD

2014-09-01

In the probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) used in the nuclear industry, human failure events (HFEs) are determined as a subset of hardware failures, namely those hardware failures that could be triggered or exacerbated by human action or inaction. This approach is top-down, starting with hardware faults and deducing human contributions to those faults. Elsewhere, more traditionally human factors driven approaches would tend to look at opportunities for human errors first in a task analysis and then identify which of those errors is risk significant. The intersection of top-down and bottom-up approaches to defining HFEs has not been carefully studied. Ideally, both approaches should arrive at the same set of HFEs. This question remains central as human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are generalized to new domains like oil and gas. The HFEs used in nuclear PSAs tend to be top-down—defined as a subset of the PSA—whereas the HFEs used in petroleum quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) are more likely to be bottom-up—derived from a task analysis conducted by human factors experts. The marriage of these approaches is necessary in order to ensure that HRA methods developed for top-down HFEs are also sufficient for bottom-up applications. In this paper, I first review top-down and bottom-up approaches for defining HFEs and then present a seven-step guideline to ensure a task analysis completed as part of human error identification decomposes to a level suitable for use as HFEs. This guideline illustrates an effective way to bridge the bottom-up approach with top-down requirements.

Signaling events during initiation of arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitz, Alexa M; Harrison, Maria J

2014-03-01

Under nutrient-limiting conditions, plants will enter into symbiosis with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi for the enhancement of mineral nutrient acquisition from the surrounding soil. AM fungi live in close, intracellular association with plant roots where they transfer phosphate and nitrogen to the plant in exchange for carbon. They are obligate fungi, relying on their host as their only carbon source. Much has been discovered in the last decade concerning the signaling events during initiation of the AM symbiosis, including the identification of signaling molecules generated by both partners. This signaling occurs through symbiosis-specific gene products in the host plant, which are indispensable for normal AM development. At the same time, plants have adapted complex mechanisms for avoiding infection by pathogenic fungi, including an innate immune response to general microbial molecules, such as chitin present in fungal cell walls. How it is that AM fungal colonization is maintained without eliciting a defensive response from the host is still uncertain. In this review, we present a summary of the molecular signals and their elicited responses during initiation of the AM symbiosis, including plant immune responses and their suppression. © 2014 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Size Constraints on Late Miocene to Pliocene Submarine Slope Failures along the Colombian Caribbean Subduction Margin as a Basis for Assessing Circum-Caribbean Impact of Future Tsunami Events

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie, S.; Mann, P.

2015-12-01

The Colombian Caribbean margin provides an ideal setting for the formation of large mass transport deposits (MTDs): 1) the Caribbean Plate is slowly subducting at rates of 20 mm/yr with infrequent large thrust earthquakes and a complete lack of subduction events in the 400-year-long historical record; 2) the margin is a broad zone of active faults including a ~50 km-wide accretionary prism and strike-slip faults landward of the prism; 3) the active margin is draped by the Magdalena delta and submarine fan fed by the Magdalena River, the 26th largest in the world; and 4) the margin is over-steepened to slopes of up to 7° from the combination of tectonic activity and rapid rates of deltaic progradation. Using seismic data we have identified three late Miocene-Pliocene MTDs, the largest of which is between 4500 and 6000 km3, comparable in size to the well-studied Storegga slide of Norway. The tsunamigenic potential of future, analog MTD events are modeled using GeoWave tsunami modeling software. The largest and youngest of these MTDs, the Santa Marta slide, is used as an analog to infer the location and input parameters for the tsunami model. The event is modeled as a translational slide ~46 km long and ~37 km wide with the center of the slide located ~57 km W/NW from the mouth of the present day Magdalena River in water depths of 1500 m. The volume for the initial failure is conservatively estimated at ~680 km3 of material. The resulting tsunami wave from such an event has an initial maximum trough amplitude of -65.8 m and a peak amplitude of 19.2 m. The impact of such a tsunami would include: 1) Kingston, Jamaica (population 938K), tsunami height 7.5 m, peak arrival at 60 min.; 2) Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (population 965K, height 6 m, peak arrival at 80 min.); and 3) Cartagena, Colombia (population 845K, height 21 m, peak arrival at 34 min.). A number of parameters to the model are varied to analyze sensitivity of modeling results to changes in slide depth

Seeking for toroidal event horizons from initially stationary BH configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ponce, Marcelo; Lousto, Carlos; Zlochower, Yosef

2011-01-01

We construct and evolve non-rotating vacuum initial data with a ring singularity, based on a simple extension of the standard Brill-Lindquist multiple BH initial data, and search for event horizons with spatial slices that are toroidal when the ring radius is sufficiently large. While evolutions of the ring singularity are not numerically feasible for large radii, we find some evidence, based on configurations of multiple BHs arranged in a ring, that this configuration leads to singular limit where the horizon width has zero size, possibly indicating the presence of a naked singularity, when the radius of the ring is sufficiently large. This is in agreement with previous studies that have found that there is no apparent horizon surrounding the ring singularity when the ring's radius is larger than about twice its mass.

Resource checking and event handling within the W7-X segment control framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laqua, Heike; Bluhm, Torsten; Heimann, Peter; Hennig, Christine; Kroiss, Hugo; Krom, Jon G.; Kühner, Georg; Lewerentz, Marc; Maier, Josef; Schacht, Jörg; Spring, Anett; Werner, Andreas; Zilker, Manfred

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Support for steady state fusion experiments. ► Off-normal event handling. ► Plasma event driven control. - Abstract: ITER, Wendelstein 7-X, LHD, and TORE SUPRA are experimental facilities designed to lead the way to steady state fusion devices. These experiments require strategies to sustain a discharge in case of unforeseen events, e.g. heat overloads of plasma facing components or the failure of a plasma heating source. A recovery strategy is needed to get the discharge back for physics exploitation. For this purpose the W7-X segment control framework provides means for automated event detection along with options to formulate and initiate a recovery strategy. Besides handling of failures and degradation there are events that represent a desired plasma physical effect. An example for this kind of event is a transition to from Low to High-Confinement mode. These events indicate that a certain plasma state is reached and scientific examination can be altered thus enabling event-driven multiple experiments per discharge. Examples of both kinds of events will be presented and compared to other approaches in the community.

Human performance analysis of industrial radiography radiation exposure events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reece, W.J.; Hill, S.G.

1995-01-01

A set of radiation overexposure event reports were reviewed as part of a program to examine human performance in industrial radiography for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Incident records for a seven year period were retrieved from an event database. Ninety-five exposure events were initially categorized and sorted for further analysis. Descriptive models were applied to a subset of severe overexposure events. Modeling included: (1) operational sequence tables to outline the key human actions and interactions with equipment, (2) human reliability event trees, (3) an application of an information processing failures model, and (4) an extrapolated use of the error influences and effects diagram. Results of the modeling analyses provided insights into the industrial radiography task and suggested areas for further action and study to decrease overexposures

Safety consequences of local initiating events in an LMFBR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crawford, R.M.; Marr, W.W.; Padilla, A. Jr.; Wang, P.Y.

1975-12-01

The potential for fuel-failure propagation in an LMFBR at or near normal conditions is examined. Results are presented to support the conclusion that although individual fuel-pin failure may occur, rapid failure-propagation spreading among a large number of fuel pins in a subassembly is unlikely in an operating LMFBR. This conclusion is supported by operating experience, mechanistic analyses of failure-propagation phenomena, and experiments. In addition, some of the consequences of continued operation with defected fuel are considered.

Safety consequences of local initiating events in an LMFBR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crawford, R.M.; Marr, W.W.; Padilla, A. Jr.; Wang, P.Y.

1975-12-01

The potential for fuel-failure propagation in an LMFBR at or near normal conditions is examined. Results are presented to support the conclusion that although individual fuel-pin failure may occur, rapid failure-propagation spreading among a large number of fuel pins in a subassembly is unlikely in an operating LMFBR. This conclusion is supported by operating experience, mechanistic analyses of failure-propagation phenomena, and experiments. In addition, some of the consequences of continued operation with defected fuel are considered

Factors controlling the initiation of Snowball Earth events

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, A.

2012-12-01

During the Neoproterozoic glaciations tropical continents were covered by active glaciers that extended down to sea level. To explain these glaciers, the Snowball Earth hypothesis assumes that oceans were completely sea-ice covered during these glaciation, but there is an ongoing debate whether or not some regions of the tropical oceans remained open. In this talk, I will describe past and ongoing climate modelling activities with the comprehensive coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM that identify and compare factors that control the initiation of Snowball Earth events. I first show that shifting the continents from their present-day location to their Marinoan (635 My BP) low-latitude location increases the planetary albedo, cools the climate, and thereby allows Snowball Earth initiation at higher levels of total solar irradiance and atmospheric CO2. I then present simulations with successively lowered bare sea-ice albedo, disabled sea-ice dynamics, and switched-off ocean heat transport. These simulations show that both lowering the bare sea-ice albedo and disabling sea-ice dynamics increase the critical sea-ice cover in ECHAM5/MPI-OM, but sea-ice dynamics due to strong equatorward sea-ice transport have a much larger influence on the critical CO2. Disabling sea-ice transport allows a state with sea-ice margin at 10 deg latitude by virtue of the Jormungand mechanism. The accumulation of snow on land, in combination with tropical land temperatures below or close to freezing, suggests that tropical land glaciers could easily form in such a state. However, in contrast to aquaplanet simulations without ocean heat transport, there is no sign of a Jormungand hysteresis in the coupled simulations. Ocean heat transport is not responsible for the lack of a Jormungand hysteresis in the coupled simulations. By relating the above findings to previous studies, I will outline promising future avenues of research on the initiation of Snowball Earth events. In particular, an

Cladding failure probability modeling for risk evaluations of fast reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Kramer, J.M.

1987-01-01

This paper develops the methodology to incorporate cladding failure data and associated modeling into risk evaluations of liquid metal-cooled fast reactors (LMRs). Current U.S. innovative designs for metal-fueled pool-type LMRs take advantage of inherent reactivity feedback mechanisms to limit reactor temperature increases in response to classic anticipated-transient-without-scram (ATWS) initiators. Final shutdown without reliance on engineered safety features can then be accomplished if sufficient time is available for operator intervention to terminate fission power production and/or provide auxiliary cooling prior to significant core disruption. Coherent cladding failure under the sustained elevated temperatures of ATWS events serves as one indicator of core disruption. In this paper we combine uncertainties in cladding failure data with uncertainties in calculations of ATWS cladding temperature conditions to calculate probabilities of cladding failure as a function of the time for accident recovery. (orig.)

Spatial and temporal patterns of bank failure during extreme flood events: Evidence of nonlinearity and self-organised criticality at the basin scale?

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, C. J.; Croke, J. C.; Grove, J. R.

2012-04-01

Non-linearity in physical systems provides a conceptual framework to explain complex patterns and form that are derived from complex internal dynamics rather than external forcings, and can be used to inform modeling and improve landscape management. One process that has been investigated previously to explore the existence of self-organised critical system (SOC) in river systems at the basin-scale is bank failure. Spatial trends in bank failure have been previously quantified to determine if the distribution of bank failures at the basin scale exhibit the necessary power law magnitude/frequency distributions. More commonly bank failures are investigated at a small-scale using several cross-sections with strong emphasis on local-scale factors such as bank height, cohesion and hydraulic properties. Advancing our understanding of non-linearity in such processes, however, requires many more studies where both the spatial and temporal measurements of the process can be used to investigate the existence or otherwise of non-linearity and self-organised criticality. This study presents measurements of bank failure throughout the Lockyer catchment in southeast Queensland, Australia, which experienced an extreme flood event in January 2011 resulting in the loss of human lives and geomorphic channel change. The most dominant form of fluvial adjustment consisted of changes in channel geometry and notably widespread bank failures, which were readily identifiable as 'scalloped' shaped failure scarps. The spatial extents of these were mapped using high-resolution LiDAR derived digital elevation model and were verified by field surveys and air photos. Pre-flood event LiDAR coverage for the catchment also existed allowing direct comparison of the magnitude and frequency of bank failures from both pre and post-flood time periods. Data were collected and analysed within a GIS framework and investigated for power-law relationships. Bank failures appeared random and occurred

Effect of enhanced external counterpulsation therapy on myeloperoxidase in lowering cardiovascular events of patients with chronic heart failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Starry H. Rampengan

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Chronic heart failure (CHF is a slowly progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality; therefore, the management using pharmacological treatments frequently fails to improve outcome. Enhanced external counterpulsation (EECP, a non-invasive treatment, may serve as alternative treatment for heart failure. This study was aimed to evaluate the influence of EECP on myeloperoxidase (MPO as inflammatory marker as well as cardiac events outcome.Methods: This was an open randomized controlled clinical trial on 66 CHF patients visiting several cardiovascular clinics in Manado between January-December 2012. The subjects were randomly divided into two groups, i.e. the group who receive EECP therapy and those who did not receive EECP therapy with 33 patients in each group. Myeloperoxidase (MPO as inflammatory marker was examined at baseline and after 6 months of observation. Cardiovascular events were observed as well after 6 months of observation. Unpaired t-test was use to analyze the difference of MPO between the two groups, and chi-square followed by calculation of relative risk were used for estimation of cardiovascular event outcomes.Results: MPO measurement at baseline and after 6 months in EECP group were 643.16 ± 239.40 pM and 422.31 ± 156.26 pM, respectively (p < 0.001. Whereas in non EECP group, the MPO values were 584.69 ± 281.40 pM and 517.64 ± 189.68 pM, repectively (p = 0.792. MPO reduction was observed in all patients of EECP group and in 13 patients (48% of non-EECP group (p < 0.001. Cardiovascular events were observed in 7 (21.21% and 15 (45.45% of patients in EECP and non-EECP groups, respectively (p = 0.037.Conclusion: EECP therapy significantly decreased the level of MPO as inflammatory marker and this decrease was correlated with the reduction of cardiovascular events in CHF patients. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:152-60. doi: 10.13181/mji.v22i3.584Keywords: CHF, cardiovascular events, EECP, myeloperoxidase

Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimada, Yoshio

2000-01-01

It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

Increased Persistence of Initial Treatment for HIV Infection With Modern Antiretroviral Therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Davy-Mendez, Thibaut; Eron, Joseph J; Zakharova, Oksana; Wohl, David A; Napravnik, Sonia

2017-10-01

Initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) early improves clinical outcomes and prevents transmission. Guidelines for first-line therapy have changed with the availability of newer ART agents. In this study, we compared persistence and virologic responses with initial ART according to the class of anchor agent used. An observational clinical cohort study in the Southeastern United States. All HIV-infected patients participating in the UNC Center for AIDS Research Clinical Cohort (UCHCC) and initiating ART between 1996 and 2014 were included. Separate time-to-event analyses with regimen discontinuation and virologic failure as outcomes were used, including Kaplan-Meier survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. One thousand six hundred twenty-four patients were included (median age of 37 years at baseline, 28% women, 60% African American, and 28% white). Eleven percent initiated integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI), 33% non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), 20% boosted protease inhibitor, 27% other, and 9% NRTI only regimens. Compared with NNRTI-containing regimens, INSTI-containing regimens had an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.49 (95% confidence interval, 0.35 to 0.69) for discontinuation and 0.70 (95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 1.06) for virologic failure. All other regimen types were associated with increased rates of discontinuation and failure compared with NNRTI. Initiating ART with an INSTI-containing regimen was associated with lower rates of regimen discontinuation and virologic failure.

Amnioinfusion to facilitate external cephalic version after initial failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Adama van Scheltema, P N; Feitsma, A H; Middeldorp, J M; Vandenbussche, F P H A; Oepkes, D

2006-09-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of antepartum transabdominal amnioinfusion to facilitate external cephalic version after initial failure. Women with a structurally normal fetus in breech lie at term, with a failed external cephalic version and an amniotic fluid index (AFI) less than 15 cm, were asked to participate in our study. After tocolysis with indomethacin, a transabdominal amnioinfusion was performed with an 18G spinal needle. Lactated Ringers solution was infused until the AFI reached 15 cm, with a maximum of 1 L. External cephalic version was performed directly afterward. Seven women participated in the study. The gestational age of the women was between 36(+4) and 38(+3) weeks, and three women were primiparous. The AFI ranged from 4 cm to 13 cm. A median amount of 1,000 mL Ringers solution (range 700-1,000 mL) was infused per procedure. The repeat external cephalic versions after amnioinfusion were not successful in any of the patients. In our experience, amnioinfusion does not facilitate external cephalic version.

Appropriate evaluation and treatment of heart failure patients after implantable cardioverter-defibrillator discharge: time to go beyond the initial shock.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishkin, Joseph D; Saxonhouse, Sherry J; Woo, Gregory W; Burkart, Thomas A; Miles, William M; Conti, Jamie B; Schofield, Richard S; Sears, Samuel F; Aranda, Juan M

2009-11-24

Multiple clinical trials support the use of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) for prevention of sudden cardiac death in patients with heart failure (HF). Unfortunately, several complicating issues have arisen from the universal use of ICDs in HF patients. An estimated 20% to 35% of HF patients who receive an ICD for primary prevention will experience an appropriate shock within 1 to 3 years of implant, and one-third of patients will experience an inappropriate shock. An ICD shock is associated with a 2- to 5-fold increase in mortality, with the most common cause being progressive HF. The median time from initial ICD shock to death ranges from 168 to 294 days depending on HF etiology and the appropriateness of the ICD therapy. Despite this prognosis, current guidelines do not provide a clear stepwise approach to managing these high-risk patients. An ICD shock increases HF event risk and should trigger a thorough evaluation to determine the etiology of the shock and guide subsequent therapeutic interventions. Several combinations of pharmacologic and device-based interventions such as adding amiodarone to baseline beta-blocker therapy, adjusting ICD sensitivity, and employing antitachycardia pacing may reduce future appropriate and inappropriate shocks. Aggressive HF surveillance and management is required after an ICD shock, as the risk of sudden cardiac death is transformed to an increased HF event risk.

Internal event analysis for Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant. Accident sequence quantification and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huerta B, A.; Aguilar T, O.; Nunez C, A.; Lopez M, R.

1994-01-01

The Level 1 results of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant PRA are presented in the I nternal Event Analysis for Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant, CNSNS-TR 004, in five volumes. The reports are organized as follows: CNSNS-TR 004 Volume 1: Introduction and Methodology. CNSNS-TR4 Volume 2: Initiating Event and Accident Sequences. CNSNS-TR 004 Volume 3: System Analysis. CNSNS-TR 004 Volume 4: Accident Sequence Quantification and Results. CNSNS-TR 005 Volume 5: Appendices A, B and C. This volume presents the development of the dependent failure analysis, the treatment of the support system dependencies, the identification of the shared-components dependencies, and the treatment of the common cause failure. It is also presented the identification of the main human actions considered along with the possible recovery actions included. The development of the data base and the assumptions and limitations in the data base are also described in this volume. The accident sequences quantification process and the resolution of the core vulnerable sequences are presented. In this volume, the source and treatment of uncertainties associated with failure rates, component unavailabilities, initiating event frequencies, and human error probabilities are also presented. Finally, the main results and conclusions for the Internal Event Analysis for Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant are presented. The total core damage frequency calculated is 9.03x 10-5 per year for internal events. The most dominant accident sequences found are the transients involving the loss of offsite power, the station blackout accidents, and the anticipated transients without SCRAM (ATWS). (Author)

Dam failure analysis for the Lago El Guineo Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta; Heriberto Torres-Sierra,

2016-08-09

considered within the model. The results of the hydrologic simulations indicated that for all hydrologic conditions scenarios, the Lago El Guineo Dam would not experience overtopping. For the dam breach hydraulic analysis, failure by piping was the selected hypothetical failure mode for the Lago El Guineo Dam.Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events indicated peak discharges below the dam of 1,342.43 and 1,434.69 cubic meters per second, respectively. Dam failure during the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge directly downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,183.12 cubic meters per second. Dam failure during sunny-day conditions (no precipitation) produced a peak discharge at Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,015.31 cubic meters per second assuming the initial water-surface elevation was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation.The results of the hydraulic analysis indicate that the flood would extend to many inhabited areas along the stream banks from the Lago El Guineo Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande as a result of the simulated failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Low-lying regions in the vicinity of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, are among the regions that would be most affected by failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Effects of the flood control (levee) structure constructed in 2000 to provide protection to the low-lying populated areas of Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, were considered in the hydraulic analysis of dam failure. The results indicate that overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events. The levee was not overtopped during dam failure scenarios under the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event or sunny-day conditions.

Accident analyses in nuclear power plants following external initiating events and in the shutdown state. Final report; Unfallanalysen in Kernkraftwerken nach anlagenexternen ausloesenden Ereignissen und im Nichtleistungsbetrieb. Abschlussbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loeffler, Horst; Kowalik, Michael; Mildenberger, Oliver; Hage, Michael

2016-06-15

The work which is documented here provides the methodological basis for improvement of the state of knowledge for accident sequences after plant external initiating events and for accident sequences which begin in the shutdown state. The analyses have been done for a PWR and for a BWR reference plant. The work has been supported by the German federal ministry BMUB under the label 3612R01361. Top objectives of the work are: - Identify relevant event sequences in order to define characteristic initial and boundary conditions - Perform accident analysis of selected sequences - Evaluate the relevance of accident sequences in a qualitative way The accident analysis is performed with the code MELCOR 1.8.6. The applied input data set has been significantly improved compared to previous analyses. The event tree method which is established in PSA level 2 has been applied for creating a structure for a unified summarization and evaluation of the results from the accident analyses. The computer code EVNTRE has been applied for this purpose. In contrast to a PSA level 2, the branching probabilities of the event tree have not been determined with the usual accuracy, but they are given in an approximate way only. For the PWR, the analyses show a considerable protective effect of the containment also in the case of beyond design events. For the BWR, there is a rather high probability for containment failure under core melt impact, but nevertheless the release of radionuclides into the environment is very limited because of plant internal retention mechanisms. This report concludes with remarks about existing knowledge gaps and with regard to core melt sequences, and about possible improvements of the plant safety.

Human failure event analysis and precautionary methods and their application to reactor system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Li; Huang Shudong; Wang Yiqun; Gao Wenyu; Zhang Jin

2003-01-01

Making use of human factor engineering, control science and safety science and adopting the method of systemically collection and doing research work factually, the authors analyze the problem and tendency of human factor science, the classification system, the formation, the quantitative appraisal, data collection and data bank, the effect and influence of organization management, the root cause analysis technology, and human error failure mode and effect and criticality analysis, the method and strategy of defense-in-depth for preventing human-initiated accident. The human factor accidents theory and mechanism are constructed. All of the above was successfully applied to Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station and Lingao Nuclear Power Station. (authors)

Physical mechanism of initial breakdown pulses and narrow bipolar events in lightning discharges

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Caitano L.; Pasko, Victor P.

2015-05-01

To date the true nature of initial breakdown pulses (IBPs) and narrow bipolar events (NBEs) in lightning discharges remains a mystery. Recent experimental evidence has correlated IBPs to the initial development of lightning leaders inside the thundercloud. NBE wideband waveforms resemble classic IBPs in both amplitude and duration. Most NBEs are quite peculiar in the sense that very frequently they occur in isolation from other lightning processes. The remaining fraction, 16% of positive polarity NBEs, according to Wu et al. (2014), happens as the first event in an otherwise regular intracloud lightning discharge. These authors point out that the initiator type of NBEs has no difference with other NBEs that did not start lightning, except for the fact that they occur deeper inside the thunderstorm (i.e., at lower altitudes). In this paper, we propose a new physical mechanism to explain the source of both IBPs and NBEs. We propose that IBPs and NBEs are the electromagnetic transients associated with the sudden (i.e., stepwise) elongation of the initial negative leader extremity in the thunderstorm electric field. To demonstrate our hypothesis a novel computational/numerical model of the bidirectional lightning leader tree is developed, consisting of a generalization of electrostatic and transmission line approximations found in the literature. Finally, we show how the IBP and NBE waveform characteristics directly reflect the properties of the bidirectional lightning leader (such as step length, for example) and amplitude of the thunderstorm electric field.

Early Caffeine Prophylaxis and Risk of Failure of Initial Continuous Positive Airway Pressure in Very Low Birth Weight Infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Ravi M; Zimmerman, Kanecia; Carlton, David P; Clark, Reese; Benjamin, Daniel K; Smith, P Brian

2017-11-01

To test the hypothesis that early caffeine treatment on the day of birth, compared with later treatment in very low birth weight (VLBW, caffeine in the first week of life. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression to compare the risk of CPAP failure, defined as invasive mechanical ventilation or surfactant therapy on DOL 1-6, by timing of caffeine treatment as either early (initiation on DOL 0) or routine (initiation on DOL 1-6). We identified 11 133 infants; 4528 (41%) received early caffeine and 6605 (59%) received routine caffeine. Median gestational age was lower in the early caffeine group, 29 weeks (25th, 75th percentiles; 28, 30) vs the routine caffeine group, 30 weeks (29, 31); P caffeine groups: 22% vs 21%; adjusted OR = 1.05 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.18). Early caffeine treatment on the day of birth was not associated with a decreased risk of CPAP failure in the first week of life for VLBW infants initially treated with CPAP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Initiating events identification of the IS process using the master logic diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Nam Chul; Jae, Moo Sung; Yang, Joon Eon

2005-01-01

Hydrogen is very attractive as a future secondary energy carrier considering environmental problems. It is important to produce hydrogen from water by use of carbon free primary energy source. The thermochemical water decomposition cycle is one of the methods for the hydrogen production process from water. Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been carrying out an R and D on the IS (iodine.sulfur) process that was first proposed by GA (General Atomic Co.) focusing on demonstration the 'closed-cycle' continuous hydrogen production on developing a feasible and efficient scheme for the HI processing, and on screening and/or developing materials of construction to be used in the corrosive process environment. The successful continuous operation of the IS-process was demonstrated and this process is one of the thermochemical processes, which is the closest to being industrialized. Currently, Korea has also started a research about the IS process and the construction of the IS process system is planned. In this study, for risk analysis of the IS process, initiating events of the IS process are identified by using the Master Logic Diagram (MLD) that is method for initiating event identification

Lessons learned from the SONGS Unit 1 water hammer event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiu, C.

1987-01-01

On November 21, 1985, a water hammer event occurred in horizontal feedwater line B at San Onofre Nuclear Generation Site (SONGS) Unit 1. The SONGS Unit 1 is a three-loop pressurized water reactor designed by Westinghouse Electric Corp. The event was initiated by a differential current trip on the bus of auxiliary transformer C. The root cause of the event was a simultaneous failure of five check valves in the feedwater system. Two of them are located downstream of the feedwater pump, and three of them are located further downstream and on the lines to the steam generators. The failure mechanism was determined to be flow-induced vibration, which caused repeated impact between the disk stud and the disk stop. The water hammer occurred in feedwater line B during the refilling of feedwater lines A, B, and C with auxiliary feedwater. The thermal-hydraulic process to initiate the water hammer and the reason that the water hammer only happened in line B have been fully investigated and explained. A root cause analysis after the event was prompted to answer the following two questions: (1) why did these five check valves fail at that time and not in the preceding 15 yr? (2) why did only these five check valves fail? The scope of the root cause analysis involves an investigation of the valve vibration characteristics, plant operation history, and the maintenance history of the valves. The paper answers these two questions, after a brief study of the vibration characteristics of a check valve

Study of the Atucha I nuclear power plant's residual heat removal system unavailability through the fault tree analysis and common cause failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terrado, C.A.

1991-06-01

The present essay offers a comprehensive research of the Atucha I nuclear power plant's residual heat removal system unavailability, including Fault Tree Analysis and Common Cause Failures (CCF) treatment. The study is developed within the Event Tree perspective that considers the loss of external electrical power of the initiating event. The event was constructed by the Safety Evaluations Division of the Ezeiza Atomic Center in Argentina. According to the Event Tree, the research includes system demand during plant operation with 132 KV and emergency generation (Diesel motor generators). The system unavailability assessment is approached in two different ways: a) Considering independent failures only. b) Taking into account the existence of Common Cause Events, and modeling dependent failures. The Fault Tree quantification is played using the AIEA PSAPACK Code. The assessment data base is compiled from plant specific records and generic data bases like TECDOC 478. After Fault Tree model logic development, some general procedures used in common cause failures treating are applied to pick up another set of solutions. The results of the study are: a) Four Fault Trees have been developed to model the abovementioned system: 132 KV and emergency generation, both including and excluding CCF. b) The following unavailability values were obtained: 132 KV independent failures only: 7 10 -4 . Emergency generation independent failures only: 1.53 10 -2 . 132 KV dependent and independent failures: 3.6 10 -3 . Emergency generation dependent and independent failures: 1.74 10 -2 . The major conclusions obtained from the precedent results are: a) When using 132 KV system configuration, minimal cut sets involving common cause failures represents 81%from total system unavailability. b) The dependent failures treatment is an important task to be considered in safety assessments in order to reach more realistic values. (Author) [es

Long-Term Outcome and Toxicity of Salvage Brachytherapy for Local Failure After Initial Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burri, Ryan J.; Stone, Nelson N.; Unger, Pam; Stock, Richard G.

2010-01-01

Purpose: To describe long-term outcomes and toxicity after salvage brachytherapy (BT) for local failure after initial radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Between 1994 and 2008, 37 men with local failure after initial prostate radiotherapy (32 external-beam radiation therapy [EBRT] and 5 BT) underwent salvage BT with 103 Pd or 125 I. Estimates of freedom from biochemical failure (FFbF, Phoenix definition) and cause-specific survival (CSS) were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Toxicities were graded using CTCv3.0. Results: Median follow-up was 86 months (range, 2-156). The median dose to 90% of the prostate volume was 122 Gy (range, 67-166). The 10-year FFbF and CSS were 54% and 96%, respectively. On univariate analysis, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) >10 ng/mL at initial diagnosis was significantly associated with FFbF (p = 0.01), and there were trends for both age <70 years (p = 0.08) and PSA <6 ng/mL (p = 0.08) at the time of salvage BT. On multivariate analysis, only presalvage PSA <6 ng/mL (p = 0.046) was significantly associated with improved FFbF. There were three Grade 3 toxicities and one Grade 4 toxicity. Pelvic lymph node dissection before salvage BT was the only variable significantly associated with Grade ≥2 toxicity (p = 0.03). Conclusion: With a median follow-up of 86 months, salvage prostate BT was associated with a 10-year FFbF of 54% and CSS of 96%. Improved FFbF was associated with a presalvage PSA <6 ng/mL. Toxicity was worse in patients who had undergone pelvic lymph node dissection before salvage BT. Careful patient selection for salvage BT may result in improved outcomes and reduced toxicity.

Patterns of initial treatment failure of esophageal cancer following radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sugahara, Shinji; Nakajima, Kotaro [Hitachi General Hospital, Ibaraki (Japan); Ohara, Kiyoshi; Okumura, Toshiyuki; Irie, Toshiyuki; Itai, Yuji

1999-11-01

Sixty patients with stage I-III esophageal squamous cell cancer treated by definitive radiotherapy (RT) were analyzed for patterns of treatment failure. Patients were treated by external RT alone (n=45) or in combination with intraluminal RT (N=15) when suitable, with prescribed total doses ranging from 59.4 to 104.4 Gy. Concurrent chemotherapy consisting of cisplatin and/or 5-fluorouracil was administered to 19 patients. The two-year actuarial survival rate and two year disease-free survival rate were 29.5% and 18.3%, respectively. Two-year failure rates were 66.5%, 36.9%, and 3.8%, for the esophagus, lymph nodes, and other sites, respectively. Two-year esophageal failure rates for patients with T1-2 (n=8), T3 (n=30), and T4 disease (n=22) were 14.3%, 64.7%, and 87.9%, respectively (p<0.05). A multivariate analysis of esophageal failure with descriptive variables of T classification, tumor length, and performance of intraluminal RT revealed that only T classification was an independent factor (p=0.021). Two-year lymph node failure rates were 24.8% and 33.6% for patients with N0 (n=36) and N1 disease (n=24), respectively (p=0.0035). Lymph node failure in N0 patients was found exclusively outside the treatment field. These results suggest that inclusion of potential lymph node metastases in the radiation field could lessen the lymph node failure rate in T1-3N0M0 patients. (author)

Incident sequence analysis; event trees, methods and graphical symbols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-11-01

When analyzing incident sequences, unwanted events resulting from a certain cause are looked for. Graphical symbols and explanations of graphical representations are presented. The method applies to the analysis of incident sequences in all types of facilities. By means of the incident sequence diagram, incident sequences, i.e. the logical and chronological course of repercussions initiated by the failure of a component or by an operating error, can be presented and analyzed simply and clearly

Failure of hippocampal deactivation during loss events in treatment-resistant depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Blair A; Tolomeo, Serenella; Gradin, Victoria; Christmas, David; Matthews, Keith; Steele, J Douglas

2015-09-01

Major depressive disorder is characterized by anhedonia, cognitive biases, ruminations, hopelessness and increased anxiety. Blunted responses to rewards have been reported in a number of recent neuroimaging and behavioural studies of major depressive disorder. In contrast, neural responses to aversive events remain an under-studied area. While selective serotonergic reuptake inhibitors are often effective in treating major depressive disorder, their mechanism of action remains unclear. Following a series of animal model investigations of depressive illness and serotonergic function, Deakin and Graeff predicted that brain activity in patients with major depressive disorder is associated with an overactive dorsal raphe nucleus with overactive projections to the amygdala, periaqueductal grey and striatum, and an underactive median raphe nucleus with underactive projections to the hippocampus. Here we describe an instrumental loss-avoidance and win-gain reinforcement learning functional magnetic resonance imaging study with 40 patients with highly treatment-resistant major depressive disorder and never-depressed controls. The dorsal raphe nucleus/ periaqueductal grey region of the midbrain and hippocampus were found to be overactive in major depressive disorder during unsuccessful loss-avoidance although the median raphe nucleus was not found to be underactive. Hippocampal overactivity was due to a failure to deactivate during loss events in comparison to controls, and hippocampal over-activity correlated with depression severity, self-report 'hopelessness' and anxiety. Deakin and Graeff argued that the median raphe nucleus normally acts to inhibit consolidation of aversive memories via the hippocampus and this system is underactive in major depressive disorder, facilitating the development of ruminations, while the dorsal raphe nucleus system is engaged by distal cues predictive of threats and is overactive in major depressive disorder. During win events the striatum

Estimation of common cause failure parameters for diesel generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tirira, J.; Lanore, J.M.

2002-10-01

This paper presents a summary of some results concerning the feedback analysis of French Emergency diesel generator (EDG). The database of common cause failure for EDG has been updated. The data collected covers a period of 10 years. Several latent common cause failure (CCF) events counting in tens are identified. In fact, in this number of events collected, most are potential CCF. From events identified, 15% events are characterized as complete CCF. The database is organised following the structure proposed by 'International Common Cause Data Exchange' (ICDE project). Events collected are analyzed by failure mode and degree of failure. Qualitative analysis of root causes, coupling factors and corrective actions are studied. The exercise of quantitative analysis is in progress for evaluating CCF parameters taking into account the average impact vector and the rate of the independent failures. The interest of the average impact vector approach is that it makes it possible to take into account a wide experience feedback, not limited to complete CCF but including also many events related to partial or potential CCF. It has to be noted that there are no finalized quantitative conclusions yet to be drawn and analysis is in progress for evaluating diesel CCF parameters. In fact, the numerical coding CCF representation of the events uses a part of subjective analysis, which requests a complete and detailed event examination. (authors)

Dependent failures of diesel generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.; Pulkkinen, U.

1982-01-01

This survey of dependent failures (common-cause failures) is based on the data of diesel generator failures in U. S. nuclear power plants as reported in Licensee Event Reports. Failures were classified into random and potentially dependent failures. All failures due to design errors, manufacturing or installation errors, maintenance errors, or deviations in the operational environment were classified as potentially dependent failures.The statistical dependence between failures was estimated from the relative portion of multiple failures. Results confirm the earlier view of the significance of statistical dependence, a strong dependence on the age of the diesel generator was found in each failure class excluding random failures and maintenance errors, which had a nearly constant frequency independent of diesel generator age

Failures probability calculation of the energy supply of the Angra-1 reactor rods assembly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borba, P.R.

1978-01-01

This work analyses the electric power system of the Angra I PWR plant. It is demonstrated that this system is closely coupled with the safety engineering features, which are the equipments provided to prevent, limit, or mitigate the release of radioactive material and to permit the safe reactor shutdown. Event trees are used to analyse the operation of those systems which can lead to the release of radioactivity following a specified initial event. The fault trees technique is used to calculate the failure probability of the on-site electric power system [pt

Control Rod Withdrawal Events Analyses for the Prototype Gen-IV SFR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Chiwoong; Ha, Kwiseo; Jeong, Taekyeong; Jeong, Jaeho; Chang, Wonpyo; Lee, Seungwon; An, Sangjun; Lee, Kwilim [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

To confirm the limiting condition, based on the maximum allowable reactivity insertion of 0.3 $, three cases from the end of cycle (EOC) are selected. In addition, assuming the failure of CRSS by earthquake, additional cases is defined at beginning of cycle (BOC). When the CRW occurs, the reactor can be protected by plant protection system (PPS). In this study, PPS mechanism is sequentially studied for all initiating events. For design basis accidents (DBA), the reactor can be scrammed by reactor protection system (RPS). The first and seconds RPS signals are checked during transients. When RPS is failed, so called as anticipated transient without scram (ATWS), the reactor will be protected by diverse protection system (DPS). In this study, in order to analyze various initiating events related control rod withdrawal, four kinds of operating condition is defined. TOP events are analyzed using MARS-LMR. The influence of various plant protection system such as RPS and DPS are investigated.

Higher dietary lycopene intake is associated with longer cardiac event-free survival in patients with heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Biddle, Martha; Moser, Debra; Song, Eun Kyeung; Heo, Seongkum; Payne-Emerson, Heather; Dunbar, Sandra B; Pressler, Susan; Lennie, Terry

2013-08-01

The antioxidant lycopene may be beneficial for patients with heart failure (HF). Processed tomato products are a major source of lycopene, although they are also high in sodium. Increased sodium intake may counter the positive antioxidant effect of lycopene. This was a prospective study of 212 patients with HF. Dietary intake of lycopene and sodium was obtained from weighted 4-day food diaries. Patients were grouped by the median split of lycopene of 2471 µg/day and stratified by daily sodium levels above and below 3 g/day. Patients were followed for 1 year to collect survival and hospitalization data. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to compare cardiac event-free survival between lycopene groups within each stratum of sodium intake. Higher lycopene intake was associated with longer cardiac event-free survival compared with lower lycopene intake (p = 0.003). The worst cardiac event-free survival was observed in the low lycopene intake group regardless of sodium intake (> 3 g/day HR = 3.01; p = 0.027 and ≤ 3 g/day HR= 3.34; p = 0.023). These findings suggest that increased lycopene intake has the potential to improve cardiac event-free survival in patients with HF independent of sodium intake.

The significant event compilation tree-sect: Theory and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishack, G.A.

1990-01-01

The Significant Event Compilation Tree (SECT) is a computer programme that was developed by staff of the Canadian Atomic Energy Control Board during the period 1984-86. Its primary purpose is to link seemingly unrelated events, or parts of events, that could have occurred at different points in time at various nuclear power plants. Using such a software tool aids in the identification of potential paths and/or scenarios that: a. may not have been foreseen in the accident analysis (including fault tree verification), b. could lead to a certain failure; or c. could have been caused by a certain initiating event (which may have ended or been terminated at an earlier stage). This paper describes: a. the basic idea of SECT; b. the criteria whereby events are selected and coded; c. the options available to the user; d. an example of the programme's application in Canada; and e. a demonstration of its possible use in conjunction with the NEA-IRS

The "Big Bang" in obese fat: Events initiating obesity-induced adipose tissue inflammation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wensveen, Felix M; Valentić, Sonja; Šestan, Marko; Turk Wensveen, Tamara; Polić, Bojan

2015-09-01

Obesity is associated with the accumulation of pro-inflammatory cells in visceral adipose tissue (VAT), which is an important underlying cause of insulin resistance and progression to diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Although the role of pro-inflammatory cytokines in disease development is established, the initiating events leading to immune cell activation remain elusive. Lean adipose tissue is predominantly populated with regulatory cells, such as eosinophils and type 2 innate lymphocytes. These cells maintain tissue homeostasis through the excretion of type 2 cytokines, such as IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13, which keep adipose tissue macrophages (ATMs) in an anti-inflammatory, M2-like state. Diet-induced obesity is associated with the loss of tissue homeostasis and development of type 1 inflammatory responses in VAT, characterized by IFN-γ. A key event is a shift of ATMs toward an M1 phenotype. Recent studies show that obesity-induced adipocyte hypertrophy results in upregulated surface expression of stress markers. Adipose stress is detected by local sentinels, such as NK cells and CD8(+) T cells, which produce IFN-γ, driving M1 ATM polarization. A rapid accumulation of pro-inflammatory cells in VAT follows, leading to inflammation. In this review, we provide an overview of events leading to adipose tissue inflammation, with a special focus on adipose homeostasis and the obesity-induced loss of homeostasis which marks the initiation of VAT inflammation. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Internal event analysis of Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant. System Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huerta B, A.; Aguilar T, O.; Nunez C, A.; Lopez M, R.

1993-01-01

The Level 1 results of Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant PRA are presented in the I nternal Event Analysis of Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant , CNSNS-TR-004, in five volumes. The reports are organized as follows: CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 1: Introduction and Methodology. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 2: Initiating Event and Accident Sequences. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 3: System Analysis. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 4: Accident Sequence Quantification and Results. CNSNS-TR-004 Volume 5: Appendices A, B and C. This volume presents the results of the system analysis for the Laguna Verde Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant. The system analysis involved the development of logical models for all the systems included in the accident sequence event tree headings, and for all the support systems required to operate the front line systems. For the Internal Event analysis for Laguna Verde, 16 front line systems and 5 support systems were included. Detailed fault trees were developed for most of the important systems. Simplified fault trees focusing on major faults were constructed for those systems that can be adequately represent,ed using this kind of modeling. For those systems where fault tree models were not constructed, actual data were used to represent the dominant failures of the systems. The main failures included in the fault trees are hardware failures, test and maintenance unavailabilities, common cause failures, and human errors. The SETS and TEMAC codes were used to perform the qualitative and quantitative fault tree analyses. (Author)

Application of declarative modeling approaches for external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anoba, R.C.

2005-01-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) are increasingly being used as a tool for supporting the acceptability of design, procurement, construction, operation, and maintenance activities at Nuclear Power Plants. Since the issuance of Generic Letter 88-20 and subsequent IPE/IPEEE assessments, the NRC has issued several Regulatory Guides such as RG 1.174 to describe the use of PSA in risk-informed regulation activities. Most PSA have the capability to address internal events including internal floods. As the more demands are being placed for using the PSA to support risk-informed applications, there has been a growing need to integrate other eternal events (Seismic, Fire, etc.) into the logic models. Most external events involve spatial dependencies and usually impact the logic models at the component level. Therefore, manual insertion of external events impacts into a complex integrated fault tree model may be too cumbersome for routine uses of the PSA. Within the past year, a declarative modeling approach has been developed to automate the injection of external events into the PSA. The intent of this paper is to introduce the concept of declarative modeling in the context of external event applications. A declarative modeling approach involves the definition of rules for injection of external event impacts into the fault tree logic. A software tool such as the EPRI's XInit program can be used to interpret the pre-defined rules and automatically inject external event elements into the PSA. The injection process can easily be repeated, as required, to address plant changes, sensitivity issues, changes in boundary conditions, etc. External event elements may include fire initiating events, seismic initiating events, seismic fragilities, fire-induced hot short events, special human failure events, etc. This approach has been applied at a number of US nuclear power plants including a nuclear power plant in Romania. (authors)

Hemodilution after Initial Treatment in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Fujita, Teppei; Inomata, Takayuki; Yazaki, Mayu; Iida, Yuichiro; Kaida, Toyoji; Ikeda, Yuki; Nabeta, Takeru; Ishii, Shunsuke; Maekawa, Emi; Yanagisawa, Tomoyoshi; Koitabashi, Toshimi; Takeuchi, Ichiro; Ako, Junya

2018-05-09

Decongestion is an important goal of heart failure (HF) management. Blood cell concentration is a recognized indicator for guiding decongestive treatment for HF. We aimed to assess the clinical impact of hemodilution and hemoconcentration after initial treatment in acute decompensated HF (ADHF) patients. We retrospectively evaluated hemoglobin levels and body weight obtained before admission, on admission, 3 days after admission, and at discharge in 102 consecutive patients admitted with ADHF. Patients were then stratified into hemodilution (n = 55) and hemoconcentration (n = 47) groups based on whether their hemoglobin levels decreased or increased, respectively, during the first 3 days after admission. From before admission to admission, hemoglobin levels decreased less in the hemodilution group (-0.16 ± 0.98 g/dL) than in the hemoconcentration group (-0.88 ± 1.11 g/dL) (P < 0.001); however, there was no significant difference in body weight (P≥ 0.05). More patients in the hemodilution group (85%) had grade III/IV pulmonary edema (Turner's criteria) compared with the hemoconcentration group (63%) (P < 0.01). Rate of readmission for HF within 180 days of discharge was higher in the hemodilution group (34%) compared with the hemoconcentration group (9%) (P < 0.01). Hemodilution after initial treatment for ADHF was associated with severe pulmonary edema at admission and higher readmission rates.

Prestudy - Development of trend analysis of component failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1995-04-01

The Bayesian trend analysis model that has been used for the computation of initiating event intensities (I-book) is based on the number of events that have occurred during consecutive time intervals. The model itself is a Poisson process with time-dependent intensity. For the analysis of aging it is often more relevant to use times between failures for a given component as input, where by 'time' is meant a quantity that best characterizes the age of the component (calendar time, operating time, number of activations etc). Therefore, it has been considered necessary to extend the model and the computer code to allow trend analysis of times between events, and also of several sequences of times between events. This report describes this model extension as well as an application on an introductory ageing analysis of centrifugal pumps defined in Table 5 of the T-book. The application in turn directs the attention to the need for further development of both the trend model and the data base. Figs

Reactivity initiated accidents and loss of shutdown - 20 years later

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxat, J.C.

2007-01-01

A review of the safety of Ontario's nuclear power reactors was conducted in 1987 after the Chernobyl accident. As part of this review an analysis was performed of a Loss of Coolant Accident in a Pickering A unit with coincident failure to shutdown. This analysis showed that the power excursion was halted by channel and calandria vessel failures leading to moderator fluid displacement. The containment structure did not fail and, at worst might suffer minor cracking at the top of the dome of the reactor building. Overall the dose consequences of such an accident were no worse than the limiting design basis dual failure event. In the intervening twenty years following this analysis, Significant experimental information has been obtained that relates to power pulse behaviour. This information, together with conservatisms in he original analysis, are reviewed and assessed in this paper. In addition, the issue of reactivity initiated events in other reactor types is reviewed to identify the reactor design characteristics that are of importance in these events. Contrary to popular belief the existence of positive coolant void reactivity is not as significant a factor as it is sometimes stated to be. On balance, with appropriate design measures, no one reactor type can be claimed to be 'more safe' than another. The underlying basis for this statement is articulated in this paper. (author)

ICDE project report on collection and analysis of common-cause failures of centrifugal pumps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

Several member countries of OECD/NEA decided to establish the International Common-Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE) Project to encourage multilateral co-operation in the collection and analysis of data relating to Common-Cause Failure (CCF) events. The project was initiated in August 1994 in Sweden and was discussed at meetings in both Sweden and France in 1995. A coding benchmark exercise was defined which was evaluated at meetings held in Germany and in the US in 1996. Subsequently, the exchange of centrifugal pump data was defined; the first phase of this exchange was evaluated at meetings in Switzerland and in France in 1997. The objectives of the ICDE Project are: - to collect and analyse CCF events in the long term so as to better understand such events, their causes, and their prevention, - to generate qualitative insights into the root causes of CCF events which can then be used to derive approaches or mechanisms for their prevention or for mitigating their consequences, - to establish a mechanism for the efficient feedback of experience gained on CCF phenomena, including the development of defences against their occurrence, such as indicators for risk based inspections. The ICDE Project is envisaged as including all possible events of interest, comprising complete, partial and incipient CCF events, called 'ICDE events' in the following. The Project covers the key components of the main safety systems, like centrifugal pumps, diesel generators, motor operated valves, power operated relief valves, safety relief valves, check valves, RPS circuit breakers, batteries and transmitters. Data are collected in an MS ACCESS based databank implemented and maintained at ES-Konsult, Sweden, by NEA appointed clearinghouse. The databank is regularly updated. The clearinghouse and the project group operate it. In the modelling of common-cause failures in systems consisting of several redundant components, two kinds of events are distinguished: a) Unavailability of a

Compelling Evidence of the Need for Corporate Work/Life Balance Initiatives: Results from a National Survey of Stressful Life-Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Hobson, Charles J.; Delunas, Linda; Kesic, Dawn

2001-01-01

Considers how failure to balance excessive work and life/family demands can lead to negative consequences for both individuals and organizations, including higher stress levels, increased absenteeism, and lower productivity. Discusses results of a survey on stressful life events that offers an explanation of why work/life balance programs are so…

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for remote handling transfer systems of ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinna, T.; Caporali, R.; Tesini, A.

2008-01-01

A Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) at component level was done to study safety-relevant implications arising from possible failures in performing remote handling (RH) operations at ITER facility . Autonomous air cushion transporter, pallet, sealed casks and tractor movers needed for port plug mounting/dismantling operation were analysed. For each sub-system, the breakdown of significant components was outlined and, for each component, possible failure modes have been investigated pointing out possible causes, possible actions to prevent the causes, consequences and actions to prevent or mitigate consequences. Off-normal events which may result in hazardous consequences to the public and the environment have been defined as Postulated Initiating Events (PIEs). Two safety-relevant PIEs have been defined by assessing elementary failures related to the analysed system. Each PIE has been discussed in order to qualitatively identify accident sequences arising from each of them. As an output of this FMEA study, possible incidental scenarios, where the intervention of rescue RH equipments is required to overcome critical situations determined by fault of RH components, were defined as well. Being rescue scenarios of main concern for ITER remote handling activities, such families could be helpful in defining the design requirements of port handling systems in general and on RH transfer system in particular. Furthermore, they could be useful in defining casks and vehicles to be used for rescue activities

Satellite failures revisited

Science.gov (United States)

Balcerak, Ernie

2012-12-01

In January 1994, the two geostationary satellites known as Anik-E1 and Anik-E2, operated by Telesat Canada, failed one after the other within 9 hours, leaving many northern Canadian communities without television and data services. The outage, which shut down much of the country's broadcast television for hours and cost Telesat Canada more than $15 million, generated significant media attention. Lam et al. used publicly available records to revisit the event; they looked at failure details, media coverage, recovery effort, and cost. They also used satellite and ground data to determine the precise causes of those satellite failures. The researchers traced the entire space weather event from conditions on the Sun through the interplanetary medium to the particle environment in geostationary orbit.

Simulating single-event burnout of n-channel power MOSFET's

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, G.H.; Hohl, J.H.; Schrimpf, R.D.; Galloway, K.F.

1993-01-01

Heavy ions are ubiquitous in a space environment. Single-event burnout of power MOSFET's is a sudden catastrophic failure mechanism that is initiated by the passage of a heavy ion through the device structure. The passage of the heavy ion generates a current filament that locally turns on a parasitic n-p-n transistor inherent to the power MOSFET. Subsequent high currents and high voltage in the device induce second breakdown of the parasitic bipolar transistor and hence meltdown of the device. This paper presents a model that can be used for simulating the burnout mechanism in order to gain insight into the significant device parameters that most influence the single-event burnout susceptibility of n-channel power MOSFET's

OECD/NEA International Common Cause Failure Data Exchange (ICDE) project - insights and lessons learnt

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johanson, G.; Kreuser, A.; Pyy, P.; Rasmuson, D.; Werner, W.

2006-01-01

Events initiated by common-cause-failure (CCF) can significantly affect the availability and reliability of nuclear power plant safety systems. In recognition of this, CCF data are systematically collected and analysed in the International Common-Cause Data Exchange (ICDE) Project, which was initiated in August 1994. Since April 1998, the NEA has formally operated the project. Currently eleven countries participate in the project. The ICDE collects all events where two or more identical, redundant components of a group, fulfilling the same function, have failed or were impaired due to a shared cause (ICDE events). Complete CCFs, i. e. failure of all identical, redundant components in the group due to a shared cause are an important subset of the collected data. Currently, data exchange and analysis covers the following components: centrifugal pumps, diesel generators, motor-operated valves, safety and relief valves, check valves, reactor protection system components (level measurement, control rod drives, etc), circuit breakers, and batteries. The main findings of the ICDE reports issued by 2005 show averaged over all components that about two thirds of all complete CCF events involve faulty actions by plant personnel and contractors. The single largest contribution is from faulty testing and maintenance work due to deficient and/or incomplete procedures. Other important causes are insufficient testing and requalification of components or systems after maintenance, repair, modifications or backfitting work, as well as operator errors of commission. The probability that a reported ICDE event is a complete CCF decreases strongly with increasing number of redundant components, demonstrating the effectiveness of redundancy as a powerful defence against CCFs. However, complete CCFs cannot be completely prevented by high redundancy only. (orig.)

Developing Public Health Initiatives through Understanding Motivations of the Audience at Mass-Gathering Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Hutton, Alison; Ranse, Jamie; Munn, Matthew Brendan

2018-04-01

. Through understanding the motivations of the audience, event planners and designers, event risk managers, and emergency medical personnel may be better able to understand the motivation of the audience and how this might impact on audience behavior at the event. Hutton A , Ranse J , Munn MB . Developing public health initiatives through understanding motivations of the audience at mass-gathering events. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(2):191-196.

Safety relevant failure mechanisms in the post-operational phase; Sicherheitstechnisch relevante Fehlermechanismen in der Nachbetriebsphase

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mayer, Gerhard; Stiller, Jan Christopher; Roemer, Sarah

2017-03-15

. Finally, national and international operating experience was evaluated with the aim to derive general failure mechanisms from events that have occurred. For this purpose, the database of German reportable events (VERA), the database of the OECD/NEA ''International Common-cause Data Exchange (ICDE)'' project as well as the database of the ''International Reporting Systems for Operating Experience (IRS)'' of the IAEA was searched. As these data sources comprise a total number of about 12,000 events, initially the evaluation focused on the 309 events that occurred in plants that are in the post operation or decommissioning phase. In order to capture events from power operation whose damage phenomena have special relevance for post operation, too, attempts were made to develop automatic searches that would deliver a pre-selection of relevant results. To evaluate this method, 900 events from a German twin unit plant over a period from their construction until the present were analysed manually. It turned out that an automated search did not deliver enveloping results. All in all, 12 events from German plants in post operation or decommissioning and 36 events from plants with power operation licences as well as 6 events from international operating experience (IRS and ICDE) which showed a failure mechanism with special relevance for the post operation phase were identified. The events were presented individually, with special emphasis on the description of the failure mechanism that was particularly relevant for post operation. The failure mechanisms identified can be allocated to the following three general categories: special operating modes; changed operating or ambient conditions; organisational and personnel boundary conditions. The failure mechanisms assigned to these categories are presented in a summarized form and discussed.

Prediction of Spring Rate and Initial Failure Load due to Material Properties of Composite Leaf Spring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Sung Ha; Choi, Bok Lok

2014-01-01

This paper presented analysis methods for adapting E-glass fiber/epoxy composite (GFRP) materials to an automotive leaf spring. It focused on the static behaviors of the leaf spring due to the material composition and its fiber orientation. The material properties of the GFRP composite were directly measured based on the ASTM standard test. A reverse implementation was performed to obtain the complete set of in-situ fiber and matrix properties from the ply test results. Next, the spring rates of the composite leaf spring were examined according to the variation of material parameters such as the fiber angles and resin contents of the composite material. Finally, progressive failure analysis was conducted to identify the initial failure load by means of an elastic stress analysis and specific damage criteria. As a result, it was found that damage first occurred along the edge of the leaf spring owing to the shear stresses

ICDE project report: collection and analysis of common-cause failure of check valves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theiss, Klaus; Hessel, Philippe; Werner, Wolfgang

2003-05-01

This report documents a study performed on the set of Common Cause Failure (CCF) events of Check Valves (CVs). The events studied here were derived from the International CCF Data Exchange (ICDE) database. Organizations from Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States contributed with data to this data exchange. This study examines 94 CCF events of CVs reported in the ICDE database by tabulating the data and observing trends. The database contains general information about event attributes like root cause, coupling factor, detection method and corrective action taken. As part of this study, most of these events were reviewed in more detail and characterized by failure cause and failure symptom categories. The study itself begins with an overview of the entire data set in chapter 5. Charts are provided for each of the above-mentioned event attributes. This chapter forms the baseline for chapter 6. The intention of chapter 6 is to give the reader a deeper qualitative insight in the database content beyond that obtained from using the event coding only. Chapter 7 contains the summary of the study results and the conclusions derived from. Approximately 8% of all ICDE events of CVs were complete CCFs (all redundant components had failed). The number of partial CCF events (at least two of the redundant components failed) accounted for 24%. In the remaining 68% of the ICDE events, less than two components had failed completely, and the other components of the observed group only suffered from small defects, incipient degradation or were not affected at all. However, it was found that for more than 75% of the ICDE events the causal factors had a high probability to be shared by all the redundant components. 88 of the 94 reported ICDE events were reviewed in some more detail in Section 6 of this report with respect to failure causes, failure symptoms and failure mechanism. All events classified with a low 'shared cause factor

A Study of Failure Events in Drinking Water Systems As a Basis for Comparison and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Potable Reuse Schemes.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyango, Laura A; Quinn, Chloe; Tng, Keng H; Wood, James G; Leslie, Greg

2015-01-01

Potable reuse is implemented in several countries around the world to augment strained water supplies. This article presents a public health perspective on potable reuse by comparing the critical infrastructure and institutional capacity characteristics of two well-established potable reuse schemes with conventional drinking water schemes in developed nations that have experienced waterborne outbreaks. Analysis of failure events in conventional water systems between 2003 and 2013 showed that despite advances in water treatment technologies, drinking water outbreaks caused by microbial contamination were still frequent in developed countries and can be attributed to failures in infrastructure or institutional practices. Numerous institutional failures linked to ineffective treatment protocols, poor operational practices, and negligence were detected. In contrast, potable reuse schemes that use multiple barriers, online instrumentation, and operational measures were found to address the events that have resulted in waterborne outbreaks in conventional systems in the past decade. Syndromic surveillance has emerged as a tool in outbreak detection and was useful in detecting some outbreaks; increases in emergency department visits and GP consultations being the most common data source, suggesting potential for an increasing role in public health surveillance of waterborne outbreaks. These results highlight desirable characteristics of potable reuse schemes from a public health perspective with potential for guiding policy on surveillance activities.

Study of MHD events initiated by pellet injection into T-10 plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuteev, B.; Khimchenko, L.; Krylov, S.; Pavlov, Y.; Pustovitov, V.; Sarychev, D.; Sergeev, V.; Skokov, V.; Timokhin, V.

2005-01-01

There are several events which might be responsible for ultra fast transport of heat and particles during pellet ablation stage in a tokamak. Those are jumps of transport coefficients, plasma drifts in the pellet vicinity and MHD events with time scale significantly shorter than the pellet ablation time. The role of the latter is still not very well understood due to a lack of studies. This paper is devoted to detailed study of the effects during the pellet ablation phase (∼ one millisecond) with main objective to determine the relation between pellet (material Li, C., KCl, size and velocity) and plasma parameters ( q-value a the pellet position, plasma density and temperature) which initiate microsecond MHD events in plasma. The pellets were injected into both into Ohmic and ECE heated plasmas (up to 3 MW) in the T-10 tokamak at various stages of the plasma discharge, in a wide range from the very beginning up to the post-disruption stage. It is observed that at some conditions a pellet ablates in the plasma without accompanying MHD events. This occurs at the highest plasma densities even if a pellet penetrates through q=1 magnetic surface. The ablation rate corresponds to NGSM in this case. Small scale events may occur near rational magnetic surfaces and the ablation rate fluctuations may be explained by reconnection. Both increase of the longitudinal heat flow due to plasma conventional from higher temperature region and growth of the electric field generation supra-thermal electrons may be responsible for the enhanced ablation. Large scale MHD events envelop a region inside q<3. It is observed that the MHD-cooled area is not poloidally symmetric. Mechanisms of the phenomena observed and their consequences on tokamak operation are discussed. (Author)

Elevated leukocyte count and adverse hospital events in patients with acute coronary syndromes: findings from the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE).

Science.gov (United States)

Furman, Mark I; Gore, Joel M; Anderson, Fredrick A; Budaj, Andrzej; Goodman, Shaun G; Avezum, Avaro; López-Sendón, José; Klein, Werner; Mukherjee, Debabrata; Eagle, Kim A; Dabbous, Omar H; Goldberg, Robert J

2004-01-01

To examine the association between elevated leukocyte count and hospital mortality and heart failure in patients enrolled in the multinational, observational Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE). Elevated leukocyte count is associated with adverse hospital outcomes in patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The association of this prognostic factor with hospital mortality and heart failure in patients with other acute coronary syndromes (ACS) is unclear. We examined the association between admission leukocyte count and hospital mortality and heart failure in 8269 patients presenting with an ACS. This association was examined separately in patients with ST-segment elevation AMI, non-ST-segment elevation AMI, and unstable angina. Leukocyte count was divided into 4 mutually exclusive groups (Q): Q1 12,000. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the association between elevated leukocyte count and hospital events while accounting for the simultaneous effect of several potentially confounding variables. Increasing leukocyte count was significantly associated with hospital death (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.8, 95% CI 2.1-3.6 for Q4 compared to Q2 [normal range]) and heart failure (OR 2.7, 95% CI 2.2-3.4) for patients presenting with ACS. This association was seen in patients with ST-segment elevation AMI (OR for hospital death 3.2, 95% CI 2.1-4.7; OR for heart failure 2.4, 95% CI 1.8-3.3), non-ST-segment elevation AMI (OR for hospital death 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.0; OR for heart failure 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.5), or unstable angina (OR for hospital death 2.8, 95% CI 1.4-5.5; OR for heart failure 2.0, 95% CI 0.9-4.4). In men and women of all ages with the spectrum of ACS, initial leukocyte count is an independent predictor of hospital death and the development of heart failure.

Leishmania Antigenuria to Predict Initial Treatment Failure and Relapse in Visceral Leishmaniasis/HIV Coinfected Patients: An Exploratory Study Nested Within a Clinical Trial in Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

van Griensven, Johan; Mengesha, Bewketu; Mekonnen, Tigist; Fikre, Helina; Takele, Yegnasew; Adem, Emebet; Mohammed, Rezika; Ritmeijer, Koert; Vogt, Florian; Adriaensen, Wim; Diro, Ermias

2018-01-01

Background: Biomarkers predicting the risk of VL treatment failure and relapse in VL/HIV coinfected patients are needed. Nested within a two-site clinical trial in Ethiopia (2011-2015), we conducted an exploratory study to assess whether (1) levels of Leishmania antigenuria measured at VL diagnosis were associated with initial treatment failure and (2) levels of Leishmania antigenuria at the end of treatment (parasitologically-confirmed cure) were associated with subsequent relapse. Methods: Leishmania antigenuria at VL diagnosis and cure was determined using KAtex urine antigen test and graded as negative (0), weak/moderate (grade 1+/2+) or strongly-positive (3+). Logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to assess the association between antigenuria and (1) initial treatment failure, and (2) relapse over the 12 months after cure, respectively. Results: The analysis to predict initial treatment failure included sixty-three coinfected adults [median age: 30 years interquartile range (IQR) 27-35], median CD4 count: 56 cells/μL (IQR 38-113). KAtex results at VL diagnosis were negative in 11 (17%), weak/moderate in 17 (27%) and strongly-positive in 35 (36%). Twenty (32%) patients had parasitologically-confirmed treatment failure, with a risk of failure of 9% (1/11) with KAtex-negative results, 0% (0/17) for KAtex 1+/2+ and 54% (19/35) for KAtex 3+ results. Compared to KAtex-negative patients, KAtex 3+ patients were at increased risk of treatment failure [odds ratio 11.9 (95% CI 1.4-103.0); P : 0.025]. Forty-four patients were included in the analysis to predict relapse [median age: 31 years (IQR 28-35), median CD4 count: 116 cells/μL (IQR 95-181)]. When achieving VL cure, KAtex results were negative in 19 (43%), weak/moderate (1+/2+) in 10 (23%), and strongly positive (3+) in 15 patients (34%). Over the subsequent 12 months, eight out of 44 patients (18%) relapsed. The predicted 1-year relapse risk was 6% for KAtex-negative results, 14% for KAtex 1

Analysis and modeling of flow-blockage-induced steam explosion events in the high-flux isotope reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taleyarkhan, R.P.; Georgevich, V.; Nestor, C.W.; Gat, U.; Lepard, B.L.; Cook, D.H.; Freels, J.; Chang, S.J.; Luttrell, C.; Gwaltney, R.C.

1994-01-01

This article provides a perspective overview of the analysis and modeling work done to evaluate the threat from steam explosion loads in the High-Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) during flow blockage events. The overall work scope included modeling and analysis of core-melt initiation, melt propagation, bounding and best-estimate steam explosion energetics, vessel failure from fracture, bolts failure from exceedance of elastic limits, and, finally, missile evolution and transport. Aluminum ignition was neglected. Evaluations indicated that a thermally driven steam explosion with more than 65 MJ of energy insertion in the core region over several milliseconds would be needed to cause a sufficiently energetic missile with a capacity to cause early confinement failure. This amounts to about 65% of the HFIR core mass melting and participating in a steam explosion. Conservative melt propagation analyses have indicated that at most only 24% of the HFIR core mass could melt during flow blockage events under full-power conditions. 19 refs., 11 figs

Serviceability Assessment for Cascading Failures in Water Distribution Network under Seismic Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qing Shuang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The stability of water service is a hot point in industrial production, public safety, and academic research. The paper establishes a service evaluation model for the water distribution network (WDN. The serviceability is measured in three aspects: (1 the functionality of structural components under disaster environment; (2 the recognition of cascading failure process; and (3 the calculation of system reliability. The node and edge failures in WDN are interrelated under seismic excitations. The cascading failure process is provided with the balance of water supply and demand. The matrix-based system reliability (MSR method is used to represent the system events and calculate the nonfailure probability. An example is used to illustrate the proposed method. The cascading failure processes with different node failures are simulated. The serviceability is analyzed. The critical node can be identified. The result shows that the aged network has a greater influence on the system service under seismic scenario. The maintenance could improve the antidisaster ability of WDN. Priority should be given to controlling the time between the initial failure and the first secondary failure, for taking postdisaster emergency measures within this time period can largely cut down the spread of cascade effect in the whole WDN.

Human based roots of failures in nuclear events investigations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ziedelis, Stanislovas; Noel, Marc; Strucic, Miodrag [Commission of the European Communities, Petten (Netherlands). European Clearinghouse on Operational Experience Feedback for Nuclear Power Plants

2012-10-15

This paper aims for improvement of quality of the event investigations in the nuclear industry through analysis of the existing practices, identifying and removing the existing Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) and management related barriers. It presents the essential results of several studies performed by the European Clearinghouse on Operational Experience. Outcomes of studies are based on survey of currently existing event investigation practices typical for nuclear industry of 12 European countries, as well as on insights from analysis of numerous event investigation reports. System of operational experience feedback from information based on event investigation results is not enough effective to prevent and even to decrease frequency of recurring events due to existing methodological, HOF-related and/or knowledge management related constraints. Besides that, several latent root causes of unsuccessful event investigation are related to weaknesses in safety culture of personnel and managers. These weaknesses include focus on costs or schedule, political manipulation, arrogance, ignorance, entitlement and/or autocracy. Upgrades in safety culture of organization's personnel and its senior management especially seem to be an effective way to improvement. Increasing of competencies, capabilities and level of independency of event investigation teams, elaboration of comprehensive software, ensuring of positive approach, adequate support and impartiality of management could also facilitate for improvement of quality of the event investigations. (orig.)

Human based roots of failures in nuclear events investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziedelis, Stanislovas; Noel, Marc; Strucic, Miodrag

2012-01-01

This paper aims for improvement of quality of the event investigations in the nuclear industry through analysis of the existing practices, identifying and removing the existing Human and Organizational Factors (HOF) and management related barriers. It presents the essential results of several studies performed by the European Clearinghouse on Operational Experience. Outcomes of studies are based on survey of currently existing event investigation practices typical for nuclear industry of 12 European countries, as well as on insights from analysis of numerous event investigation reports. System of operational experience feedback from information based on event investigation results is not enough effective to prevent and even to decrease frequency of recurring events due to existing methodological, HOF-related and/or knowledge management related constraints. Besides that, several latent root causes of unsuccessful event investigation are related to weaknesses in safety culture of personnel and managers. These weaknesses include focus on costs or schedule, political manipulation, arrogance, ignorance, entitlement and/or autocracy. Upgrades in safety culture of organization's personnel and its senior management especially seem to be an effective way to improvement. Increasing of competencies, capabilities and level of independency of event investigation teams, elaboration of comprehensive software, ensuring of positive approach, adequate support and impartiality of management could also facilitate for improvement of quality of the event investigations. (orig.)

Dependency models and probability of joint events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oerjasaeter, O.

1982-08-01

Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

Results of the Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of internal events for heavy water production reactors (U)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tinnes, S.P.; Cramer, D.S.; Logan, V.E.; Topp, S.V.; Smith, J.A.; Brandyberry, M.D.

1990-01-01

This paper reports on a full-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) production reactors. The Level 1 PRA for the K Reactor has been completed and includes the assessment of reactor systems response to accidents and estimates of the severe core melt frequency (SCMF). The internal events spectrum includes those events related directly to plant systems and safety functions for which transients or failures may initiate an accident

Development of accident event trees and evaluation of safety system failure modes for the nuclear ultra large crude carrier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewe, C.K.; Coffey, R.S.; Goodwin, E.F.; Maltese, J.G.; Pyatt, D.W.

1978-01-01

A method of applying the probabilistic accident event tree methodology to safety assessments of a nuclear powered Ultra Large Crude Carrier is presented. Also presented are the procedures by which an external accident initiating event, such as a ship collision, may be correlated with the probabilities of damage to the ship's safety systems and to their ultimate availabilities to perform required safety functions

Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, M. J. S.; Linde, A. T.; Gladwin, M. T.; Borcherdt, R. D.

1987-12-01

High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake ( ML = 6.7, Δ = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake ( ML = 5.5, Δ = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake ( ML = 6.1, Δ = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake ( ML = 5.8, Δ = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake ( ML = 7.0, Δ = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10 -8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10 -10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10 -9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure.

Predictors of immunological failure after initial response to highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1-infected adults: a EuroSIDA study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dragsted, Ulrik Bak; Mocroft, Amanda; Vella, Stefano

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND: Factors that determine the immunological response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) are poorly defined. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to investigate predictors of immunological failure after initial CD4(+) response. METHODS: Data were from EuroSIDA, a prospective, international...

When the Sky Falls: Performing Initial Assessments of Bright Atmospheric Events

Science.gov (United States)

Cooke, William J.; Brown, Peter; Blaauw, Rhiannon; Kingery, Aaron; Moser, Danielle

2015-01-01

The 2013 Chelyabinsk super bolide was the first "significant" impact event to occur in the age of social media and 24 hour news. Scientists, used to taking many days or weeks to analyze fireball events, were hard pressed to meet the immediate demands (within hours) for answers from the media, general public, and government officials. Fulfilling these requests forced many researchers to exploit information available from various Internet sources - videos were downloaded from sites like Youtube, geolocated via Google Street View, and quickly analyzed with improvised software; Twitter and Facebook were scoured for eyewitness accounts of the fireball and reports of meteorites. These data, combined with infrasound analyses, enabled a fairly accurate description of the Chelyabinsk event to be formed within a few hours; in particular, any relationship to 2012 DA14 (which passed near Earth later that same day) was eliminated. Results of these analyses were quickly disseminated to members of the NEO community for press conferences and media interviews. Despite a few minor glitches, the rapid initial assessment of Chelyabinsk was a triumph, permitting the timely conveyance of accurate information to the public and the incorporation of social media into fireball analyses. Beginning in 2008, the NASA Meteoroid Environments Office, working in cooperation with Western's Meteor Physics Group, developed processes and software that permit quick characterization - mass, trajectory, and orbital properties - of fireball events. These tools include automated monitoring of Twitter to establish the time of events (the first tweet is usually no more than a few seconds after the fireball), mining of Youtube and all sky camera web archives to locate videos suitable for analyses, use of Google Earth and Street View to geolocate the video locations, and software to determine the fireball trajectory and object orbital parameters, including generation of animations suitable for popular media

Management and outcomes following an acute coronary event in patients with chronic heart failure 1999-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranasinghe, Isuru; Naoum, Chris; Aliprandi-Costa, Bernadette; Sindone, Andrew P; Steg, P Gabriel; Elliott, John; McGarity, Bruce; Lefkovits, Jeffrey; Brieger, David

2012-05-01

The outcome of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) following an ischaemic event is poorly understood. We evaluated the management and outcomes of CHF patients presenting with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and explored changes in outcomes over time. A total of 5556 patients enrolled in the Australia-New Zealand population of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) between 1999 and 2007 were included. Patients with CHF (n = 609) were compared with those without CHF (n = 4947). Patients with CHF were on average 10 years older, were more likely to be female, had more co-morbidities and cardiac risk factors, and were more likely to have a prior history of angina, myocardial infarction, and revascularization by coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) when compared with those without CHF. CHF was associated with a substantial increase in in-hospital renal failure [odds ratio (OR) 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-2.71], readmission post-discharge (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.17-1.90), and 6-month mortality (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.55-3.27). Over the 9 year study period, in-hospital and 6 month mortality in those with CHF declined by absolute rates of 7.5% and 14%, respectively. This was temporally associated with an increase in prescription of thienopyridines, beta-blockers, statins, and angiotensin II receptor blockers, increased rates of coronary angiography, and 31.8% absolute increase in referral rates for cardiac rehabilitation. Acute coronary syndrome patients with pre-existing CHF are a very high risk group and carry a disproportionate mortality burden. Encouragingly, there was a marked temporal improvement in outcomes over a 9 year period with an increase in evidence-based treatments and secondary preventative measures.

SSC 17-meter dipole magnet DD000Z test results and investigation of coil failure: The report of the open-quotes Zclose quotes Committee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coombes, R.; Lundy, R.; Schneider, W.; Wanderer, P.

1988-03-01

Following the failure of the lower inner coil of magnet DD000Z on November 3, 1987, a committee was formed on November 11 and given the following charges: 'To review the events leading up to and including the failure of the coils of magnet DD000Z. The intent of the review will be to determine the cause of the failure and to make recommendations to reduce the likelihood of such failures in the future. Given the fact that this is the first long magnet to be disassembled, the committee may uncover leads which point to other opportunities for improvement. The committee should follow up on these leads. The committee should prepare a plan to serve as an initial guide for the disassembly and provide guidance as the disassembly progresses.' The committee held its first meeting at FNAL on 17 and 18 Nov to review the record of events leading up to the failure and to establish an initial disassembly procedure. This was followed by further meetings at FNAL, BNL, and CDG, leading to this final report. Committee activities included interviewing personnel who had been involved in the design, assembly and testing of DD000Z, reviewing all documents relating to the magnet and its failure, and participating in and providing guidance during the disassembly. The intention of the committee was to report factual findings, to consider well founded hypotheses, not to consider conjecture and to avoid speculation

Decrease the Number of Glovebox Glove Breaches and Failures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hurtle, Jackie C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2013-12-24

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is committed to the protection of the workers, public, and environment while performing work and uses gloveboxes as engineered controls to protect workers from exposure to hazardous materials while performing plutonium operations. Glovebox gloves are a weak link in the engineered controls and are a major cause of radiation contamination events which can result in potential worker exposure and localized contamination making operational areas off-limits and putting programmatic work on hold. Each day of lost opportunity at Technical Area (TA) 55, Plutonium Facility (PF) 4 is estimated at $1.36 million. Between July 2011 and June 2013, TA-55-PF-4 had 65 glovebox glove breaches and failures with an average of 2.7 per month. The glovebox work follows the five step safety process promoted at LANL with a decision diamond interjected for whether or not a glove breach or failure event occurred in the course of performing glovebox work. In the event that no glove breach or failure is detected, there is an additional decision for whether or not contamination is detected. In the event that contamination is detected, the possibility for a glove breach or failure event is revisited.

Common cause failure investigations using the European Reliability Data System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Games, A.M.; Breewood, M.; Amendola, A.; Keller, A.Z.

1984-01-01

The European Reliability Data System (ERDS) has provided data for use in investigations into common cause failures (CCFs) in nuclear power plants. These investigations have been made on two levels, at a system and inter-system level. Data have been used from the Component Event Data Bank and from the Licensee Event Report Files, both part of the ERDS. The two studies required different methodologies although both commenced with a temporal sorting procedure for the failure events. The studies demonstrated that different types of common cause failure necessitate different search algorithms, and thus a data search must be closely related to an appropriate CCF classification system, which in the first instance would not be based on causes of failure. (author)

Hypertension control after an initial cardiac event among Medicare patients with diabetes mellitus: A multidisciplinary group practice observational study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaddha, Ashish; Smith, Maureen A; Palta, Mari; Johnson, Heather M

2018-04-23

Patients with diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease have a high risk of mortality and/or recurrent cardiovascular events. Hypertension control is critical for secondary prevention of cardiovascular events. The objective was to determine rates and predictors of achieving hypertension control among Medicare patients with diabetes and uncontrolled hypertension after hospital discharge for an initial cardiac event. A retrospective analysis of linked electronic health record and Medicare data was performed. The primary outcome was hypertension control within 1 year after hospital discharge for an initial cardiac event. Cox proportional hazard models assessed sociodemographics, medications, utilization, and comorbidities as predictors of control. Medicare patients with diabetes were more likely to achieve hypertension control when prescribed beta-blockers at discharge or with a history of more specialty visits. Adults ≥ 80 were more likely to achieve control with diuretics. These findings demonstrate the importance of implementing guideline-directed multidisciplinary care in this complex and high-risk population. ©2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pressure Effects Analysis of National Ignition Facility Capacitor Module Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brereton, S; Ma, C; Newton, M; Pastrnak, J; Price, D; Prokosch, D

1999-01-01

Capacitors and power conditioning systems required for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have experienced several catastrophic failures during prototype demonstration. These events generally resulted in explosion, generating a dramatic fireball and energetic shrapnel, and thus may present a threat to the walls of the capacitor bay that houses the capacitor modules. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the ability of the capacitor bay walls to withstand the overpressure generated by the aforementioned events. Two calculations are described in this paper. The first one was used to estimate the energy release during a fireball event and the second one was used to estimate the pressure in a capacitor module during a capacitor explosion event. Both results were then used to estimate the subsequent overpressure in the capacitor bay where these events occurred. The analysis showed that the expected capacitor bay overpressure was less than the pressure tolerance of the walls. To understand the risk of the above events in NIF, capacitor module failure probabilities were also calculated. This paper concludes with estimates of the probability of single module failure and multi-module failures based on the number of catastrophic failures in the prototype demonstration facility

A Bivariate return period for levee failure monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Isola, M.; Caporali, E.

2017-12-01

Levee breaches are strongly linked with the interaction processes among water, soil and structure, thus many are the factors that affect the breach development. One of the main is the hydraulic load, characterized by intensity and duration, i.e. by the flood event hydrograph. On the magnitude of the hydraulic load is based the levee design, generally without considering the fatigue failure due to the load duration. Moreover, many are the cases in which the levee breach are characterized by flood of magnitude lower than the design one. In order to implement the strategies of flood risk management, we built here a procedure based on a multivariate statistical analysis of flood peak and volume together with the analysis of the past levee failure events. Particularly, in order to define the probability of occurrence of the hydraulic load on a levee, a bivariate copula model is used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Flood peak is the expression of the load magnitude, while the volume is the expression of the stress over time. We consider the annual flood peak and the relative volume. The volume is given by the hydrograph area between the beginning and the end of event. The beginning of the event is identified as an abrupt rise of the discharge by more than 20%. The end is identified as the point from which the receding limb is characterized by the baseflow, using a nonlinear reservoir algorithm as baseflow separation technique. By this, with the aim to define warning thresholds we consider the past levee failure events and the relative bivariate return period (BTr) compared with the estimation of a traditional univariate model. The discharge data of 30 hydrometric stations of Arno River in Tuscany, Italy, in the period 1995-2016 are analysed. The database of levee failure events, considering for each event the location as well as the failure mode, is also created. The events were registered in the period 2000-2014 by EEA

Analysis of loss of flow events on Brazilian multipurpose reactor by RELAP5 code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, Humberto V.; Costa, Antonella L.; Pereira, Claubia; Veloso, Maria Auxiliadora F.; Aronne, Ivan D.; Rezende, Guilherme P.

2011-01-01

The Brazilian Multipurpose Reactor (BMR) is currently being projected and analyzed. It will be a 30 MW open pool multipurpose research reactor with a compact core using Materials Testing Reactor (MTR) type fuel assembly, with planar plates. BMR will be cooled by light water and moderated by beryllium and heavy water. This work presents the calculations of steady state operation of BMR using the RELAP5 model and also three transient cases of loss of flow accident (LOFA), in the primary cooling system. A LOFA may arise through failures associated with the primary cooling system pumps or through events resulting in a decrease in the primary coolant flow with the primary cooling system pumps functioning normally. The cases presented in this paper are: primary cooling system pump shaft seizure, failure of one primary cooling system pump motor and failure of both primary cooling system pump motors. In the shaft seizure case, the flow reduction is sudden, with the blocking of the flow coast down The motor failure cases, deal with the failure of one or two pump motor due to, for example, malfunction or interruption of power and differently of the shaft seizure it can be observed the flow coast down provided by the pump inertia. It is shown that after all initiating events the reactor reaches a safe new steady state keeping the integrity of the fuel elements. (author)

Analysis of loss of flow events on Brazilian multipurpose reactor by RELAP5 code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soares, Humberto V.; Costa, Antonella L.; Pereira, Claubia; Veloso, Maria Auxiliadora F., E-mail: antonella@nuclear.ufmg.br, E-mail: laubia@nuclear.ufmg.br, E-mail: dora@nuclear.ufmg.br [Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, UFMG, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Instituto Nacional de Ciencias e Tecnologia de Reatores Nucleares Inovadores, CNPq (Brazil); Aronne, Ivan D.; Rezende, Guilherme P., E-mail: aroneid@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte (Brazil).

2011-07-01

The Brazilian Multipurpose Reactor (BMR) is currently being projected and analyzed. It will be a 30 MW open pool multipurpose research reactor with a compact core using Materials Testing Reactor (MTR) type fuel assembly, with planar plates. BMR will be cooled by light water and moderated by beryllium and heavy water. This work presents the calculations of steady state operation of BMR using the RELAP5 model and also three transient cases of loss of flow accident (LOFA), in the primary cooling system. A LOFA may arise through failures associated with the primary cooling system pumps or through events resulting in a decrease in the primary coolant flow with the primary cooling system pumps functioning normally. The cases presented in this paper are: primary cooling system pump shaft seizure, failure of one primary cooling system pump motor and failure of both primary cooling system pump motors. In the shaft seizure case, the flow reduction is sudden, with the blocking of the flow coast down The motor failure cases, deal with the failure of one or two pump motor due to, for example, malfunction or interruption of power and differently of the shaft seizure it can be observed the flow coast down provided by the pump inertia. It is shown that after all initiating events the reactor reaches a safe new steady state keeping the integrity of the fuel elements. (author)

Spatio-temporal changes in river bank mass failures in the Lockyer Valley, Queensland, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Chris; Croke, Jacky; Grove, James; Khanal, Giri

2013-06-01

Wet-flow river bank failure processes are poorly understood relative to the more commonly studied processes of fluvial entrainment and gravity-induced mass failures. Using high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) and near coincident aerial photography, this study documents the downstream distribution of river bank mass failures which occurred as a result of a catastrophic flood in the Lockyer Valley in January 2011. In addition, this distribution is compared with wet flow mass failure features from previous large floods. The downstream analysis of these two temporal data sets indicated that they occur across a range of river lengths, catchment areas, bank heights and angles and do not appear to be scale-dependent or spatially restricted to certain downstream zones. The downstream trends of each bank failure distribution show limited spatial overlap with only 17% of wet flows common to both distributions. The modification of these features during the catastrophic flood of January 2011 also indicated that such features tend to form at some 'optimum' shape and show limited evidence of subsequent enlargement even when flow and energy conditions within the banks and channel were high. Elevation changes indicate that such features show evidence for infilling during subsequent floods. The preservation of these features in the landscape for a period of at least 150 years suggests that the seepage processes dominant in their initial formation appear to have limited role in their continuing enlargement over time. No evidence of gully extension or headwall retreat is evident. It is estimated that at least 12 inundation events would be required to fill these failures based on the average net elevation change recorded for the 2011 event. Existing conceptual models of downstream bank erosion process zones may need to consider a wider array of mass failure processes to accommodate for wet flow failures.

Immune mediated liver failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaojing; Ning, Qin

2014-01-01

Liver failure is a clinical syndrome of various etiologies, manifesting as jaundice, encephalopathy, coagulopathy and circulatory dysfunction, which result in subsequent multiorgan failure. Clinically, liver failure is classified into four categories: acute, subacute, acute-on-chronic and chronic liver failure. Massive hepatocyte death is considered to be the core event in the development of liver failure, which occurs when the extent of hepatocyte death is beyond the liver regenerative capacity. Direct damage and immune-mediated liver injury are two major factors involved in this process. Increasing evidence has suggested the essential role of immune-mediated liver injury in the pathogenesis of liver failure. Here, we review the evolved concepts concerning the mechanisms of immune-mediated liver injury in liver failure from human and animal studies. Both innate and adaptive immunity, especially the interaction of various immune cells and molecules as well as death receptor signaling system are discussed. In addition, we highlight the concept of "immune coagulation", which has been shown to be related to the disease progression and liver injury exacerbation in HBV related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Uncertainty analysis of reactor safety systems with statistically correlated failure data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.; Modarres, M.

1985-01-01

The probability of occurrence of the top event of a fault tree is estimated from failure probability of components that constitute the fault tree. Component failure probabilities are subject to statistical uncertainties. In addition, there are cases where the failure data are statistically correlated. Most fault tree evaluations have so far been based on uncorrelated component failure data. The subject of this paper is the description of a method of assessing the probability intervals for the top event failure probability of fault trees when component failure data are statistically correlated. To estimate the mean and variance of the top event, a second-order system moment method is presented through Taylor series expansion, which provides an alternative to the normally used Monte-Carlo method. For cases where component failure probabilities are statistically correlated, the Taylor expansion terms are treated properly. A moment matching technique is used to obtain the probability distribution function of the top event through fitting a Johnson Ssub(B) distribution. The computer program (CORRELATE) was developed to perform the calculations necessary for the implementation of the method developed. The CORRELATE code is very efficient and consumes minimal computer time. This is primarily because it does not employ the time-consuming Monte-Carlo method. (author)

Event classification related to overflow of solvent containing uranium according to the INES scale (International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dourado, Eneida R.G.; Assis, Juliana T. de; Lage, Ricardo F.; Lopes, Karina B.

2013-01-01

This paper aims to frame the event overflow organic solvent rich in uranium, from a decanter of ore beneficiation plant, caused by the fall in the supply of electricity, according to the criteria established by the International Nuclear Event Scale and radiological (INES), facilitating the understanding of the occurrence and communication with the public regarding the radiation safety aspects involved. With the fall of electricity, routine procedures in situations of installation stop were performed, however, due to operational failure, the valve on the transfer line liquor was not closed. Thus, the mixer continued being fed with liquor, that led the consequent leakage of solvent loaded with uranium. It reached the drainage system, and the box of rainwater harvesting of the plant. However, immediately after the detection of the event, corrective actions were initiated and the overflow was contained. Regulatory agencies followed the removal of the solvent and on the results of the analysis of environmental monitoring, found that the event did not provide exposure to workers or any other impact. Therefore, comparing the characteristics of the event and the guidelines proposed by the INES scale, it is concluded that the classification of the event is below scale/level 0, confirming the absence of risk to the local population, workers and the environment

Dynamic crack initiation toughness : experiments and peridynamic modeling.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foster, John T.

2009-10-01

This is a dissertation on research conducted studying the dynamic crack initiation toughness of a 4340 steel. Researchers have been conducting experimental testing of dynamic crack initiation toughness, K{sub Ic}, for many years, using many experimental techniques with vastly different trends in the results when reporting K{sub Ic} as a function of loading rate. The dissertation describes a novel experimental technique for measuring K{sub Ic} in metals using the Kolsky bar. The method borrows from improvements made in recent years in traditional Kolsky bar testing by using pulse shaping techniques to ensure a constant loading rate applied to the sample before crack initiation. Dynamic crack initiation measurements were reported on a 4340 steel at two different loading rates. The steel was shown to exhibit a rate dependence, with the recorded values of K{sub Ic} being much higher at the higher loading rate. Using the knowledge of this rate dependence as a motivation in attempting to model the fracture events, a viscoplastic constitutive model was implemented into a peridynamic computational mechanics code. Peridynamics is a newly developed theory in solid mechanics that replaces the classical partial differential equations of motion with integral-differential equations which do not require the existence of spatial derivatives in the displacement field. This allows for the straightforward modeling of unguided crack initiation and growth. To date, peridynamic implementations have used severely restricted constitutive models. This research represents the first implementation of a complex material model and its validation. After showing results comparing deformations to experimental Taylor anvil impact for the viscoplastic material model, a novel failure criterion is introduced to model the dynamic crack initiation toughness experiments. The failure model is based on an energy criterion and uses the K{sub Ic} values recorded experimentally as an input. The failure model

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Gearbox 1 Failure Analysis Report: December 2010 - January 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Errichello, R.; Muller, J.

2012-02-01

Unintended gearbox failures have a significant impact on the cost of wind farm operations. In 2007, NREL initiated the Gearbox Reliability Collaborative (GRC). The project combines analysis, field testing, dynamometer testing, condition monitoring, and the development and population of a gearbox failure database in a multi-pronged approach to determine why wind turbine gearboxes do not achieve their expected design life. The collaborative of manufacturers, owners, researchers, and consultants focuses on gearbox testing and modeling and the development of a gearbox failure database. Collaborative members also investigate gearbox condition monitoring techniques. Data gained from the GRC will enable designers, developers, and manufacturers to improve gearbox designs and testing standards and create more robust modeling tools. GRC project essentials include the development of two identical, heavily instrumented representative gearbox designs. Knowledge gained from the field and dynamometer tests conducted on these gearboxes builds an understanding of how the selected loads and events translate into bearing and gear response. This report contains the analysis of the first gearbox design.

Failure Forecasting in Triaxially Stressed Sandstones

Science.gov (United States)

Crippen, A.; Bell, A. F.; Curtis, A.; Main, I. G.

2017-12-01

Precursory signals to fracturing events have been observed to follow power-law accelerations in spatial, temporal, and size distributions leading up to catastrophic failure. In previous studies this behavior was modeled using Voight's relation of a geophysical precursor in order to perform `hindcasts' by solving for failure onset time. However, performing this analysis in retrospect creates a bias, as we know an event happened, when it happened, and we can search data for precursors accordingly. We aim to remove this retrospective bias, thereby allowing us to make failure forecasts in real-time in a rock deformation laboratory. We triaxially compressed water-saturated 100 mm sandstone cores (Pc= 25MPa, Pp = 5MPa, σ = 1.0E-5 s-1) to the point of failure while monitoring strain rate, differential stress, AEs, and continuous waveform data. Here we compare the current `hindcast` methods on synthetic and our real laboratory data. We then apply these techniques to increasing fractions of the data sets to observe the evolution of the failure forecast time with precursory data. We discuss these results as well as our plan to mitigate false positives and minimize errors for real-time application. Real-time failure forecasting could revolutionize the field of hazard mitigation of brittle failure processes by allowing non-invasive monitoring of civil structures, volcanoes, and possibly fault zones.

Defining molecular initiating events in the adverse outcome pathway framework for risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Timothy E H; Goodman, Jonathan M; Gutsell, Steve; Russell, Paul J

2014-12-15

Consumer and environmental safety decisions are based on exposure and hazard data, interpreted using risk assessment approaches. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) conceptual framework has been presented as a logical sequence of events or processes within biological systems which can be used to understand adverse effects and refine current risk assessment practices in ecotoxicology. This framework can also be applied to human toxicology and is explored on the basis of investigating the molecular initiating events (MIEs) of compounds. The precise definition of the MIE has yet to reach general acceptance. In this work we present a unified MIE definition: an MIE is the initial interaction between a molecule and a biomolecule or biosystem that can be causally linked to an outcome via a pathway. Case studies are presented, and issues with current definitions are addressed. With the development of a unified MIE definition, the field can look toward defining, classifying, and characterizing more MIEs and using knowledge of the chemistry of these processes to aid AOP research and toxicity risk assessment. We also present the role of MIE research in the development of in vitro and in silico toxicology and suggest how, by using a combination of biological and chemical approaches, MIEs can be identified and characterized despite a lack of detailed reports, even for some of the most studied molecules in toxicology.

Acute renal failure with sodium-glucose-cotransporter-2 inhibitors: Analysis of the FDA adverse event report system database.

Science.gov (United States)

Perlman, A; Heyman, S N; Matok, I; Stokar, J; Muszkat, M; Szalat, A

2017-12-01

Sodium-glucose-cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have recently been approved for the treatment of type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM). It has been proposed that these agents could induce acute renal failure (ARF) under certain conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the association between SGLT2-inhibitors and ARF in the FDA adverse event report system (FAERS) database. We analyzed adverse event cases submitted to FAERS between January 2013 and September 2016. ARF cases were identified using a structured medical query. Medications were identified using both brand and generic names. During the period evaluated, 18,915 reports (out of a total of 3,832,015 registered in FAERS) involved the use of SGLT2-inhibitors. SGLT2-inhibitors were reportedly associated with ARF in 1224 of these cases (6.4%), and were defined as the "primary" or "secondary" cause of the adverse event in 96.8% of these cases. The proportion of reports with ARF among reports with SGLT2 inhibitor was almost three-fold higher compared to reports without these drugs (ROR 2.88, 95% CI 2.71-3.05, p SGLT2-inhibitors was significantly greater than the proportion of ARF among cases with T2DM without SGLT2-inhibitors (ROR 1.68, 95% CI 1.57-1.8, p SGLT2-inhibitors, canagliflozin was associated with a higher proportion of reports of renal failure (7.3%), compared to empagliflozin and dapagliflozin (4.7% and 4.8% respectively, p SGLT2-inhibitors are associated with an increase in the proportion of reports of ARF compared to other medications. SGLT2-inhibitor agents may differ from one another in their respective risk for ARF. Copyright © 2017 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Micromechanics Based Failure Analysis of Heterogeneous Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Sertse, Hamsasew M.

In recent decades, heterogeneous materials are extensively used in various industries such as aerospace, defense, automotive and others due to their desirable specific properties and excellent capability of accumulating damage. Despite their wide use, there are numerous challenges associated with the application of these materials. One of the main challenges is lack of accurate tools to predict the initiation, progression and final failure of these materials under various thermomechanical loading conditions. Although failure is usually treated at the macro and meso-scale level, the initiation and growth of failure is a complex phenomena across multiple scales. The objective of this work is to enable the mechanics of structure genome (MSG) and its companion code SwiftComp to analyze the initial failure (also called static failure), progressive failure, and fatigue failure of heterogeneous materials using micromechanics approach. The initial failure is evaluated at each numerical integration point using pointwise and nonlocal approach for each constituent of the heterogeneous materials. The effects of imperfect interfaces among constituents of heterogeneous materials are also investigated using a linear traction-displacement model. Moreover, the progressive and fatigue damage analyses are conducted using continuum damage mechanics (CDM) approach. The various failure criteria are also applied at a material point to analyze progressive damage in each constituent. The constitutive equation of a damaged material is formulated based on a consistent irreversible thermodynamics approach. The overall tangent modulus of uncoupled elastoplastic damage for negligible back stress effect is derived. The initiation of plasticity and damage in each constituent is evaluated at each numerical integration point using a nonlocal approach. The accumulated plastic strain and anisotropic damage evolution variables are iteratively solved using an incremental algorithm. The damage analyses

Estimating the probability of rare events: addressing zero failure data.

Science.gov (United States)

Quigley, John; Revie, Matthew

2011-07-01

Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data-dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with 1/2.5n, where n is the number of trials. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Events leading to foreign material being left in the primary heat transport system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groom, S.H.; Benton, A.J.

1996-01-01

On October 6,1995, following an extensive maintenance outage which had included boiler primary side cleaning, a Primary Heat Transport (PHT) system pump run was started in preparation for ultrasonic feeder flow measurements. Wooden debris in the system resulted in failure of the shaft seals of the PHT Pump 1. The subsequent investigation and assessment of this event provided an understanding of both the pump shaft failure mechanism and the origin of the debris in the PHT system. The pump shaft failed as a result of friction-generated heat resulting from contact between the rotating shaft and the stationary seal housing. This contact was initiated by mechanical and hydraulic imbalance in the pump impeller caused by wooden debris lodged in the impeller. The origin of the wooden debris was a temporary plywood cover which was inadvertently left in a boiler following maintenance. This cover moved from the boiler to the pump impeller when the PHT pumps were started. The cover was not accounted for and verified as being removed prior to boiler closure, although a visual inspection was conducted. A detailed institutional process for component accounting and verification of removal of materials did not exist at the time of this event. Details of the methods used to establish alternative heat sinks, provide debris recovery facilities and to assess the fitness for duty of the heat transport system and fuel channels prior to reactor startup are discussed in detail elsewhere. This report will concentrate on the events leading up to and following the events which ultimately resulted in failure of the PHT pump shaft

The development on the methodology of the initiating event frequencies for liquid metal reactor KALIMER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, K. S.; Yang, Z. A.; Ah, Y. B.; Jang, W. P.; Jeong, H. Y.; Ha, K. S.; Han, D. H.

2002-01-01

In this paper, the PSA methodology of PRISM,Light Water Reactor, Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor are analyzed and the methodology of Initiating Events for KALIMER are suggested. Also,the reliability assessment of assumptions for Pipes Corrosion Frequency is set up. The reliability assessment of Passive Safety System, one of Main Safety System of KALIMER, are discussed and analyzed

Automated Testing of Event-Driven Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Casper Svenning

may be tested by selecting an interesting input (i.e. a sequence of events), and deciding if a failure occurs when the selected input is applied to the event-driven application under test. Automated testing promises to reduce the workload for developers by automatically selecting interesting inputs...... and detect failures. However, it is non-trivial to conduct automated testing of event-driven applications because of, for example, infinite input spaces and the absence of specifications of correct application behavior. In this PhD dissertation, we identify a number of specific challenges when conducting...... automated testing of event-driven applications, and we present novel techniques for solving these challenges. First, we present an algorithm for stateless model-checking of event-driven applications with partial-order reduction, and we show how this algorithm may be used to systematically test web...

Silicon-controlled rectifier failure investigation report, April 11 and May 7, 1986, Type A occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

As a result of the April 11, 1986 failure and subsequent property damage of the silicon-controlled rectifier (SCR) device used to provide dc power to the motor driven construction and salt handling (CandSH) hoist at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the Project Manager, WIPP Project Office, appointed an Accident Investigation Board on April 14, 1986. The Board was tasked to investigate, to determine the cause or causes of the SCR failure, and to make appropriate recommendations to prevent a recurrence. Subsequently, the scope of the investigation was expanded on April 22, 1986, to include a series of failures that occurred after the initial failure. This occurrence came after the SCR had been released by the Board, repaired, modified, and returned to use. The investigation included a review of the engineering, procurement, operations, and maintenance programs of the Management and Operating Contractor (MOC), along with a detailed investigation of the hardware involved in the failure. Analytical techniques included use of the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT) and Events and Causal Factors Sequence Charting. 15 figs

Radiology of renal failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffiths, H.J.

1990-01-01

This book covers most aspects of imaging studies in patients with renal failure. The initial chapter provides basic information on contrast agents, intravenous urography, and imaging findings in the urinary tract disorders responsible for renal failure and in patients who have undergone transplantation. It illustrates common gastro-intestinal abnormalities seen on barium studies in patients with renal failure. It illustrates the cardiopulmonary complications of renal failure and offers advice for radiologic differentiation. It details different aspects of skeletal changes in renal failure, including a basic description of the pathophysiology of the changes; many excellent illustrations of classic bone changes, arthritis, avascular necrosis, and soft-tissue calcifications; and details of bone mineral analysis

Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model.

Science.gov (United States)

Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul J; Stewart, Ralph A; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, John; Tonkin, Andrew

2017-12-01

Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from 20%. Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m 2 , LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimative of core damage frequency in IPEN's IEA-R1 research reactor (PSA level 1) due to the initiating event of loss of coolant caused by large rupture in the pipe of the primary circuit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirata, Daniel Massami

2009-01-01

This work applies the methodology of probabilistic safety assessment level 1 to the research reactor IEA-R1 IPEN-CNEN/SP. Two categories of identified initiating events of accidents in the reactor are studied: loss of flow and loss of primary coolant. Among the initiating events, blockage of flow channel and loss of cooling fluid by major pipe rupture in the primary circuit are chosen for a detailed analysis. The event tree technique is used to analyze the evolution of the accident, including the actuation or the fail of actuation of the safety systems and the reactor damages. Using the fault tree the reliability of the following reactor safety systems is evaluated: reactor shutdown system, isolation of the reactor pool, emergency core cooling system (ECCS) and the electric system. Estimative for the frequency of damage to the reactor core and the probability of failure of the analyzed systems are calculated. The estimated values for the frequencies of core damage are within the expected margins and are of the same order of magnitude as those found for similar reactors. The reliability of the reactor shutdown system, isolation of the reactor pool and ECCS are satisfactory for the conditions these systems are required. However, for the electric system it is suggested an upgrade to increase its reliability. (author)

Uncertainties and quantification of common cause failure rates and probabilities for system analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaurio, Jussi K.

2005-01-01

Simultaneous failures of multiple components due to common causes at random times are modelled by constant multiple-failure rates. A procedure is described for quantification of common cause failure (CCF) basic event probabilities for system models using plant-specific and multiple-plant failure-event data. Methodology is presented for estimating CCF-rates from event data contaminated with assessment uncertainties. Generalised impact vectors determine the moments for the rates of individual systems or plants. These moments determine the effective numbers of events and observation times to be input to a Bayesian formalism to obtain plant-specific posterior CCF-rates. The rates are used to determine plant-specific common cause event probabilities for the basic events of explicit fault tree models depending on test intervals, test schedules and repair policies. Three methods are presented to determine these probabilities such that the correct time-average system unavailability can be obtained with single fault tree quantification. Recommended numerical values are given and examples illustrate different aspects of the methodology

Dispersed Trading and the Prevention of Market Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Porter, David C.; Tanggaard, Carsten; G. Weaver, Daniel

With augmented demands on power grids resulting in longer and larger blackouts combined with heightened concerns of terrorist attacks, trading institutions and policy makers have widened their search for systems that avoid market failure during these disturbing events. We provide insight into thi......With augmented demands on power grids resulting in longer and larger blackouts combined with heightened concerns of terrorist attacks, trading institutions and policy makers have widened their search for systems that avoid market failure during these disturbing events. We provide insight...... combined with widely dispersed trading locations may be a viable means of protection against market failure during massive power disruptions or terrorist attacks....

Rockfall failure mechanisms in Yosemite Valley, California (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Matasci, Battista; Guerin, Antoine; Carrea, Dario; Stock, Greg M.; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Collins, Brian

2014-05-01

Rockfall hazard is especially high in Yosemite Valley, with tens of rockfalls inventoried every year. A rockfall on 5 October 2013 from Ahwiyah Point consisted of a volume of 740 cubic meters and occurred within the perimeter of a larger event on 28 March 2009 that released 25'400 cubic meters of rock (Zimmer et al., 2012). In both events (2009 and 2013), the initial rockfall volumes dislodged a second one approximately equivalent in size by impacting the cliff below the source area during the fall. Rock fragments of up to several cubic meters were deposited on the talus slope, damaging a heavily used and recently reconstructed hiking path. We performed extensive mapping of structural features for several cliffs of Yosemite Valley to improve the assessment of the most susceptible rockfall areas. In particular we mapped and characterized the main brittle structures, the exfoliation joints and the failure mechanisms of the past rockfalls. Several failure mechanisms exist in Yosemite including the propagation of brittle structures that may lead to tensile, planar sliding, wedge sliding or toppling failures. Frequently, topographically-parallel exfoliation joints and topographically-oblique discontinuities coexist, resulting in complex failures. We also developed a methodology to examine how the distribution of joints within the cliff faces of Yosemite Valley affects overall stability with respect to the identified failure mechanisms. For these analyses, we used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to collect high resolution point clouds of the vertical and overhanging rock faces throughout the Valley. This provided the necessary 3D data to identify the main joint sets, perform spacing and trace length measurements, and calculate volumes of previous and potential rockfalls. We integrated this information with stability calculations to identify the likely failure mechanisms for each area of cliff and to obtain the number of potential failures per square meter of cliff face

Lipid disorders in patients with renal failure: Role in cardiovascular events and progression of chronic kidney disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Visconti

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The spectrum of lipid disorders in chronic kidney disease (CKD is usually characterized by high triglycerides and reduced high dense lipoprotein (HDL, associated with normal or slightly reduced low dense lipoprotein (LDL-cholesterol. This dyslipidemia is associated with an increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Keys for the cardiovascular risk reduction in these patients are lowering the number and modifying the composition of the cholesterol-carrying atherogenic lipoprotein particles. Statins have an important role in primary prevention of cardiovascular events and mortality in non-hemodialyzed CKD patients. The benefits in terms of progression of renal failure are contradictory. Patient education regarding dietary regimen should be part of the CKD clinical management.

Establishing precursor events for stress corrosion cracking initiation in type 304L stainless steel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, M.U.F.; Raja, V.S.; Roychowdhury, S.; Kain, V.

2015-01-01

The present study attempts to establish slip band emergence, due to localized deformation, as a precursor event for SCC initiation in type 304L SS. The unidirectional tensile loading was used for straining flat tensile specimen, less than 10% strain, in air, 0.5 M NaCl + 0.5 M H 2 SO 4 and boiling water reactor (BWR) simulated environment (288 C. degrees, 10 MPa). The surface features were characterized using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (including electron backscattered diffraction-EBSD) and atomic force microscopy. The study shows that with increase in strain level, during unidirectional slow strain rate test (SSRT), average slip band height increases in air and the attack on slip lines occurs in acidified chloride environment. In BWR simulated environment, preferential oxidation on slip lines and initiation of a few cracks on some of the slip lines are observed. Based on the observation, the study suggests slip bands, formed due to localized deformation, to act as a precursor for SCC initiation. (authors)

Salvage Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Following In-Field Failure of Initial SBRT for Spinal Metastases.

Science.gov (United States)

Thibault, Isabelle; Campbell, Mikki; Tseng, Chia-Lin; Atenafu, Eshetu G; Letourneau, Daniel; Yu, Eugene; Cho, B C John; Lee, Young K; Fehlings, Michael G; Sahgal, Arjun

2015-10-01

We report our experience in salvaging spinal metastases initially irradiated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), who subsequently progressed with imaging-confirmed local tumor progression, and were re-irradiated with a salvage second SBRT course to the same level. From a prospective database, 56 metastatic spinal segments in 40 patients were identified as having been irradiated with a salvage second SBRT course to the same level. In addition, 24 of 56 (42.9%) segments had initially been irradiated with conventional external beam radiation therapy before the first course of SBRT. Local control (LC) was defined as no progression on magnetic resonance imaging at the treated segment, and calculated according to the competing risk model. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated for each patient treated by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. The median salvage second SBRT total dose and number of fractions was 30 Gy in 4 fractions (range, 20-35 Gy in 2-5 fractions), and for the first course of SBRT was 24 Gy in 2 fractions (range, 20-35 Gy in 1-5 fractions). The median follow-up time after salvage second SBRT was 6.8 months (range, 0.9-39 months), the median OS was 10.0 months, and the 1-year OS rate was 48%. A longer time interval between the first and second SBRT courses predicted for better OS (P=.02). The crude LC was 77% (43/56), the 1-year LC rate was 81%, and the median time to local failure was 3.0 months (range, 2.7-16.7 months). Of the 13 local failures, 85% (11/13) and 46% (6/13) showed progression within the epidural space and paraspinal soft tissues, respectively. Absence of baseline paraspinal disease predicted for better LC (Pinitial SBRT is a feasible and efficacious salvage treatment option. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events: data mining of the public version of the FDA adverse event reporting system.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toshiyuki Sakaeda

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Adverse event reports (AERs submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA were reviewed to assess the muscular and renal adverse events induced by the administration of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins and to attempt to determine the rank-order of the association. METHODS: After a revision of arbitrary drug names and the deletion of duplicated submissions, AERs involving pravastatin, simvastatin, atorvastatin, or rosuvastatin were analyzed. Authorized pharmacovigilance tools were used for quantitative detection of signals, i.e., drug-associated adverse events, including the proportional reporting ratio, the reporting odds ratio, the information component given by a Bayesian confidence propagation neural network, and the empirical Bayes geometric mean. Myalgia, rhabdomyolysis and an increase in creatine phosphokinase level were focused on as the muscular adverse events, and acute renal failure, non-acute renal failure, and an increase in blood creatinine level as the renal adverse events. RESULTS: Based on 1,644,220 AERs from 2004 to 2009, signals were detected for 4 statins with respect to myalgia, rhabdomyolysis, and an increase in creatine phosphokinase level, but these signals were stronger for rosuvastatin than pravastatin and atorvastatin. Signals were also detected for acute renal failure, though in the case of atorvastatin, the association was marginal, and furthermore, a signal was not detected for non-acute renal failure or for an increase in blood creatinine level. CONCLUSIONS: Data mining of the FDA's adverse event reporting system, AERS, is useful for examining statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events. The data strongly suggest the necessity of well-organized clinical studies with respect to statin-associated adverse events.

Statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events: data mining of the public version of the FDA adverse event reporting system.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakaeda, Toshiyuki; Kadoyama, Kaori; Okuno, Yasushi

2011-01-01

Adverse event reports (AERs) submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) were reviewed to assess the muscular and renal adverse events induced by the administration of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase inhibitors (statins) and to attempt to determine the rank-order of the association. After a revision of arbitrary drug names and the deletion of duplicated submissions, AERs involving pravastatin, simvastatin, atorvastatin, or rosuvastatin were analyzed. Authorized pharmacovigilance tools were used for quantitative detection of signals, i.e., drug-associated adverse events, including the proportional reporting ratio, the reporting odds ratio, the information component given by a Bayesian confidence propagation neural network, and the empirical Bayes geometric mean. Myalgia, rhabdomyolysis and an increase in creatine phosphokinase level were focused on as the muscular adverse events, and acute renal failure, non-acute renal failure, and an increase in blood creatinine level as the renal adverse events. Based on 1,644,220 AERs from 2004 to 2009, signals were detected for 4 statins with respect to myalgia, rhabdomyolysis, and an increase in creatine phosphokinase level, but these signals were stronger for rosuvastatin than pravastatin and atorvastatin. Signals were also detected for acute renal failure, though in the case of atorvastatin, the association was marginal, and furthermore, a signal was not detected for non-acute renal failure or for an increase in blood creatinine level. Data mining of the FDA's adverse event reporting system, AERS, is useful for examining statin-associated muscular and renal adverse events. The data strongly suggest the necessity of well-organized clinical studies with respect to statin-associated adverse events.

Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

2015-01-01

In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

Blast experiments for the derivation of initial cloud dimensions after a ''Dirty Bomb'' event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thielen, H.; Schroedl, E.

2004-01-01

Basis for the assessment of potential consequences of a ''dirty bomb'' event is the calculation of the atmospheric dispersion of airborne particles. The empirical derivation of parameters for the estimation of the initial pollutant cloud dimensions was the principal purpose for blast experiments performed in the training area Munster in summer 2003 with the participation of several highly engaged German organisations and institutions. The experiments were performed under variation of parameters like mass and kind of explosive, subsurface characteristics or meteorological conditions and were documented by digital video recording. The blasting experiments supplied significant results under reproducible conditions. The initial cloud dimension was primarily influenced by the explosive mass. The influence of other parameters was relatively small and within the range of the experimental uncertainties. Based on these experimental results a new correlation was determined for the empirical estimation of the initial cloud dimensions as a function of explosive mass. The observed initial cloud volumes were more than an order of magnitude smaller than those calculated with other widely-used formulas (e.g. HOTSPOT). As a smaller volume of the initial cloud leads to higher near-ground concentration maxima, our results support an appropriate adjustment of currently employed calculation methods. (orig.)

Salvage Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Following In-Field Failure of Initial SBRT for Spinal Metastases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thibault, Isabelle; Campbell, Mikki [Department of Radiation Oncology, Odette Cancer Centre, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Tseng, Chia-Lin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Odette Cancer Centre, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Atenafu, Eshetu G. [Department of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Letourneau, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Yu, Eugene [Department of Radiology, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Cho, B.C. John [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Lee, Young K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Odette Cancer Centre, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Fehlings, Michael G. [Department of Radiology, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Sahgal, Arjun, E-mail: arjun.sahgal@sunnybrook.ca [Department of Radiation Oncology, Odette Cancer Centre, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

2015-10-01

Purpose: We report our experience in salvaging spinal metastases initially irradiated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), who subsequently progressed with imaging-confirmed local tumor progression, and were re-irradiated with a salvage second SBRT course to the same level. Methods and Materials: From a prospective database, 56 metastatic spinal segments in 40 patients were identified as having been irradiated with a salvage second SBRT course to the same level. In addition, 24 of 56 (42.9%) segments had initially been irradiated with conventional external beam radiation therapy before the first course of SBRT. Local control (LC) was defined as no progression on magnetic resonance imaging at the treated segment, and calculated according to the competing risk model. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated for each patient treated by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: The median salvage second SBRT total dose and number of fractions was 30 Gy in 4 fractions (range, 20-35 Gy in 2-5 fractions), and for the first course of SBRT was 24 Gy in 2 fractions (range, 20-35 Gy in 1-5 fractions). The median follow-up time after salvage second SBRT was 6.8 months (range, 0.9-39 months), the median OS was 10.0 months, and the 1-year OS rate was 48%. A longer time interval between the first and second SBRT courses predicted for better OS (P=.02). The crude LC was 77% (43/56), the 1-year LC rate was 81%, and the median time to local failure was 3.0 months (range, 2.7-16.7 months). Of the 13 local failures, 85% (11/13) and 46% (6/13) showed progression within the epidural space and paraspinal soft tissues, respectively. Absence of baseline paraspinal disease predicted for better LC (P<.01). No radiation-induced vertebral compression fractures or cases of myelopathy were observed. Conclusion: A second course of spine SBRT, most often with 30 Gy in 4 fractions, for spinal metastases that failed initial SBRT is a feasible and efficacious salvage treatment option.

Initial concepts on energetics and mass releases during nonnuclear explosive events in fuel cycle facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halverson, M.A.; Mishima, J.

1986-09-01

Non-nuclear explosions are one of the initiating events (accidents) considered in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission study of formal methods for estimating the airborne release of radionuclides from fuel cycle facilities. Methods currently available to estimate the energetics and mass airborne release from the four types of non-nuclear explosive events (fast and slow physical explosions and fast and slow chemical explosions) are reviewed. The likelihood that fast physical explosions will occur in fuel cycle facilities appears to be remote and this type of explosion is not considered. Methods to estimate the consequences of slow physical and fast chemical explosions are available. Methods to estimate the consequences of slow chemical explosions are less well defined

Failure mechanisms for compacted uranium oxide fuel cores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berghaus, D.G.; Peacock, H.B.

1980-01-01

Tension, compression, and shear tests were performed on test specimens of aluminum-clad, compacted powder fuel cores to determine failure mechanisms of the core material. The core, which consists of 70% uranium oxide in an aluminum matrix, frequently fails during post-extrusion drawing. Tests were conducted to various strain levels up to failure of the core. Sections were made of tested specimens to microscopically study initiation of failure. Two failure modes wee observed. Tensile failure mode is initiated by prior tensile failure of uranium oxide particles with the separation path strongly influenced by the arrangement of particles. Delamination mode consists of the separation of laminae formed during extrusion of tubes. Separation proceeds from fine cracks formed parallel to the laminae. Tensile failure mode was experienced in tension and shear tests. Delamination mode was produced in compression tests

Improved methods for dependent failure analysis in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballard, G.M.; Games, A.M.

1988-01-01

The basic design principle used in ensuring the safe operation of nuclear power plant is defence in depth. This normally takes the form of redundant equipment and systems which provide protection even if a number of equipment failures occur. Such redundancy is particularly effective in ensuring that multiple, independent equipment failures with the potential for jeopardising reactor safety will be rare events. However the achievement of high reliability has served to highlight the potentially dominant role of multiple, dependent failures of equipment and systems. Analysis of reactor operating experience has shown that dependent failure events are the major contributors to safety system failures and reactor incidents and accidents. In parallel PSA studies have shown that the results of a safety analysis are sensitive to assumptions made about the dependent failure (CCF) probability for safety systems. Thus a Westinghouse Analysis showed that increasing system dependent failure probabilities by a factor of 5 led to a factor 4 increase in core. This paper particularly refers to the engineering concepts underlying dependent failure assessment touching briefly on aspects of data. It is specifically not the intent of our work to develop a new mathematical model of CCF but to aid the use of existing models

Rare event techniques applied in the Rasmussen study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1977-01-01

The Rasmussen Study estimated public risks from commercial nuclear power plant accidents, and therefore the statistics of rare events had to be treated. Two types of rare events were specifically handled, those rare events which were probabilistically rare events and those which were statistically rare events. Four techniques were used to estimate probabilities of rare events. These techniques were aggregating data samples, discretizing ''continuous'' events, extrapolating from minor to catastrophic severities, and decomposing events using event trees and fault trees. In aggregating or combining data the goal was to enlarge the data sample so that the rare event was no longer rare, i.e., so that the enlarged data sample contained one or more occurrences of the event of interest. This aggregation gave rise to random variable treatments of failure rates, occurrence frequencies, and other characteristics estimated from data. This random variable treatment can be interpreted as being comparable to an empirical Bayes technique or a Bayesian technique. In the discretizing event technique, events of a detailed nature were grouped together into a grosser event for purposes of analysis as well as for data collection. The treatment of data characteristics as random variables helped to account for the uncertainties arising from this discretizing. In the severity extrapolation technique a severity variable was associated with each event occurrence for the purpose of predicting probabilities of catastrophic occurrences. Tail behaviors of distributions therefore needed to be considered. Finally, event trees and fault trees were used to express accident occurrences and system failures in terms of more basic events for which data existed. Common mode failures and general dependencies therefore needed to be treated. 2 figures

Risk of shear failure and extensional failure around over-stressed excavations in brittle rock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nick Barton

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The authors investigate the failure modes surrounding over-stressed tunnels in rock. Three lines of investigation are employed: failure in over-stressed three-dimensional (3D models of tunnels bored under 3D stress, failure modes in two-dimensional (2D numerical simulations of 1000 m and 2000 m deep tunnels using FRACOD, both in intact rock and in rock masses with one or two joint sets, and finally, observations in TBM (tunnel boring machine tunnels in hard and medium hard massive rocks. The reason for ‘stress-induced’ failure to initiate, when the assumed maximum tangential stress is approximately (0.4–0.5σc (UCS, uniaxial compressive strength in massive rock, is now known to be due to exceedance of a critical extensional strain which is generated by a Poisson's ratio effect. However, because similar ‘stress/strength’ failure limits are found in mining, nuclear waste research excavations, and deep road tunnels in Norway, one is easily misled into thinking of compressive stress induced failure. Because of this, the empirical SRF (stress reduction factor in the Q-system is set to accelerate as the estimated ratio σθmax/σc >> 0.4. In mining, similar ‘stress/strength’ ratios are used to suggest depth of break-out. The reality behind the fracture initiation stress/strength ratio of ‘0.4’ is actually because of combinations of familiar tensile and compressive strength ratios (such as 10 with Poisson's ratio (say 0.25. We exceed the extensional strain limits and start to see acoustic emission (AE when tangential stress σθ ≈ 0.4σc, due to simple arithmetic. The combination of 2D theoretical FRACOD models and actual tunnelling suggests frequent initiation of failure by ‘stable’ extensional strain fracturing, but propagation in ‘unstable’ and therefore dynamic shearing. In the case of very deep tunnels (and 3D physical simulations, compressive stresses may be too high for extensional strain fracturing, and

A REVIEW OF SOFTWARE-INDUCED FAILURE EXPERIENCE.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

CHU, T.L.; MARTINEZ-GURIDI, G.; YUE, M.; LEHNER, J.

2006-09-01

We present a review of software-induced failures in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) and in several non-nuclear industries. We discuss the approach used for connecting operational events related to these failures and the insights gained from this review. In particular, we elaborate on insights that can be used to model this kind of failure in a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. We present the conclusions reached in these areas.

Collections and Analyses of Common Cause Failure Data for the Korea Standard and Westinghouse Type NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Dae Il; Han, S. H.

2007-04-01

The analyses of the CCF events for domestic NPPs were performed to establish the domestic database for the CCF events and to deliver supply them to the operation office of the international common cause failure data exchange (ICDE) project. We collected and analyzed the CCF events of emergency diesel generators, centrifugal pumps, motor-operated valves, check valves, circuit breakers for the Korean Standard Type nuclear power plants (NPPs), Yonggwang Units 3 and 4 and Ulchin Units 3 and 4, and the Westinghouse type NPPs, Kori Unit 3 and 4 and Yonggwang Units 1 and 2. First, the components to be collected and analyzed were classified into the common cause component groups (CCCGs) according to the ICDE coding guidelines. Next, the CCF events were identified based on reviews of the component database for the PSA and its related documents, and consultations with NPP staff. Fourteen CCF events were identified. The ratio of the number of CCF events to that of individual failure events was identified as approximately 10 percentages. However, an in depth review of the CCF events showed that most failure severities of them were identified as partial CCF events, which can be interpreted as some component failures within the CCCGs. Root causes of the CCF events were identified as 9 internal part failures, 2 human errors, 2 design deficiencies, 1 procedure inadequacy. It could be concluded that the major root causes of the CCF events were internal piece part failures

Analysis of loss of offsite power events reported in nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Volkanovski, Andrija, E-mail: Andrija.VOLKANOVSKI@ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Ballesteros Avila, Antonio; Peinador Veira, Miguel [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Kančev, Duško [Kernkraftwerk Goesgen-Daeniken AG, CH-4658 Daeniken (Switzerland); Maqua, Michael [Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und-Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) gGmbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Köln (Germany); Stephan, Jean-Luc [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), BP 17 – 92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex (France)

2016-10-15

Highlights: • Loss of offsite power events were identified in four databases. • Engineering analysis of relevant events was done. • The dominant root cause for LOOP are human failures. • Improved maintenance procedures can decrease the number of LOOP events. - Abstract: This paper presents the results of analysis of the loss of offsite power events (LOOP) in four databases of operational events. The screened databases include: the Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit mbH (GRS) and Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) databases, the IAEA International Reporting System for Operating Experience (IRS) and the U.S. Licensee Event Reports (LER). In total 228 relevant loss of offsite power events were identified in the IRSN database, 190 in the GRS database, 120 in U.S. LER and 52 in IRS database. Identified events were classified in predefined categories. Obtained results show that the largest percentage of LOOP events is registered during On power operational mode and lasted for two minutes or more. The plant centered events is the main contributor to LOOP events identified in IRSN, GRS and IAEA IRS database. The switchyard centered events are the main contributor in events registered in the NRC LER database. The main type of failed equipment is switchyard failures in IRSN and IAEA IRS, main or secondary lines in NRC LER and busbar failures in GRS database. The dominant root cause for the LOOP events are human failures during test, inspection and maintenance followed by human failures due to the insufficient or wrong procedures. The largest number of LOOP events resulted in reactor trip followed by EDG start. The actions that can result in reduction of the number of LOOP events and minimize consequences on plant safety are identified and presented.

Establishing and sustaining a technical program to achieve zero fuel failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deshon, J.; Whiteside, K.; Burnham, R.

2015-01-01

In 2006, Chief Nuclear Officers (CNOs) of electric utilities operating 103 commercial reactors in the United States (U.S.) formally endorsed an initiative to achieve failure-free fuel performance by the end of 2010. This became known as the Zero-by- Ten Fuel Failure Initiative. The endorsement manifested during a meeting at the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) while nuclear fuel performance trends were being reviewed. Declining fuel performance generated backing for the Initiative. This paper provides a brief review of some of the drivers that caused those trends, the Initiative elements designed to address them, and a review of the technical program that helped achieve, and thus far sustain, improved fuel performance. (author) Key Words: Nuclear Fuel, Fuel, Fuel Failures, Fuel Failure Initiative, Zero by Ten Initiative

Probabilistic assessment of fire related events in CWPH (Pilot study)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, D.; Maity, S.C.; Guptan, Rajee; Mohan, Nalini; Ghadge, S.G.; Bajaj, S.S.

2006-01-01

As a part of Fire PSA for KAPS, a pilot study has been taken up identifying CWPH as the important zone vulnerable to fire. As the CWPH houses pumps belonging to all important cooling (APWC, FFW, NAHPPW, NALPW, etc.) of both the units, a single fire leads to failure of multiple safety/safety support system cooling affecting the safety of the plant. The objective of this study is as follows: Familiarising with the various published Fire-PSA study, comparing and finalisation of the computer code amongst various codes available with DAE, identifying and sequencing different activities involved for carrying out Fire PSA, i.e. Zoning and Sub-Zoning of Fire Source Area, Fire vulnerability of System and Component surrounding Fire Source, etc., finalization of report format and documentation. Computer Code FDS is used to carry out Fire Hazard Analysis. FDS is the latest state-of the-art software package extensively used for Fire Hazard Analysis. It develops a 3D scenario for any given fire giving credit to actual physical location of fire load and ventilation. It gives the time dependent of any fire in a specific zone crediting the time required by operator to take necessary preventive action which helps in quantifying the probability of error for any particular operator's for PSA study. To identify the most vulnerable sub-zone in CWPH, a walk down was organized and physical location of each load; their separation, fire barrier, ventilator in the room, arrangement of fire protection/fighting system, localized operator's room were reviewed. Fire in the middle diesel tank with pump is considered as initiating event in the sub-zone of CWPH. The Event Tree for this initiating event for CWPH was developed. Event Tree end states are identified as large fire i.e. fire which is failed to be detected by both means, i.e. early and late and failure in fighting by both means i.e. early and late. (author)

Serious adverse events with infliximab: analysis of spontaneously reported adverse events.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Richard A; Gartlehner, Gerald; Powell, Gregory E; Sandler, Robert S

2007-06-01

Serious adverse events such as bowel obstruction, heart failure, infection, lymphoma, and neuropathy have been reported with infliximab. The aims of this study were to explore adverse event signals with infliximab by using a long period of post-marketing experience, stratifying by indication. The relative reporting of infliximab adverse events to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was assessed with the public release version of the adverse event reporting system (AERS) database from 1968 to third quarter 2005. On the basis of a systematic review of adverse events, Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) terms were mapped to predefined categories of adverse events, including death, heart failure, hepatitis, infection, infusion reaction, lymphoma, myelosuppression, neuropathy, and obstruction. Disproportionality analysis was used to calculate the empiric Bayes geometric mean (EBGM) and corresponding 90% confidence intervals (EB05, EB95) for adverse event categories. Infliximab was identified as the suspect medication in 18,220 reports in the FDA AERS database. We identified a signal for lymphoma (EB05 = 6.9), neuropathy (EB05 = 3.8), infection (EB05 = 2.9), and bowel obstruction (EB05 = 2.8). The signal for granulomatous infections was stronger than the signal for non-granulomatous infections (EB05 = 12.6 and 2.4, respectively). The signals for bowel obstruction and infusion reaction were specific to patients with IBD; this suggests potential confounding by indication, especially for bowel obstruction. In light of this additional evidence of risk of lymphoma, neuropathy, and granulomatous infections, clinicians should stress this risk in the shared decision-making process.

Regulatory experience with fuel failures in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adam, L.

2015-01-01

In this paper the main ENSI activities like: supervision of reactor and radiation safety and security; supervision of safety of transports of nuclear materials and assess the safety of proposed solutions for the geological disposal are listed. Recent events concerning the reactor core, common causes for fuel failures, findings during inspections and potential root cause for fuel failures are discussed. Management of fuel failures, started from reporting of the event – evaluation of the need of imminent action; identification of the fuel element if possible till evaluation by the plant and fuel vendor and allowance by ENSI for repair of the fuel element and definition of measures (short and long term) are also presented. The following Conclusions by ENSI about status of fuel failures are made: 1) Number of fuel failures was reduced regardless more economic operation in all plants; 2) Old PWR and BWR reactors achieved 15 to 29 years operation without leakers, but two minor fuel damage during fuel handling appeared; 3) Newer plants are not better in achieving operation without leakers than older plants; 4) Technical improvements at fuel elements parallel to changes in operation strategy and improvements in manufacturing quality but single effects difficult to judge. The issues about how to implement “Zero Failure Rates” in regulations and how to achieve “Zero Failure Rates” as well as some future measures by ENSI are discussed

Failure modes of composite sandwich beams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gdoutos E.

2008-01-01

Full Text Available A thorough investigation of failure behavior of composite sandwich beams under three-and four-point bending was undertaken. The beams were made of unidirectional carbon/epoxy facings and a PVC closed-cell foam core. The constituent materials were fully characterized and in the case of the foam core, failure envelopes were developed for general two-dimensional states of stress. Various failure modes including facing wrinkling, indentation failure and core failure were observed and compared with analytical predictions. The initiation, propagation and interaction of failure modes depend on the type of loading, constituent material properties and geometrical dimensions.

Congestive Heart Failure Cardiopoietic Regenerative Therapy (CHART-1) trial design.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartunek, Jozef; Davison, Beth; Sherman, Warren; Povsic, Thomas; Henry, Timothy D; Gersh, Bernard; Metra, Marco; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Hajjar, Roger; Behfar, Atta; Homsy, Christian; Cotter, Gad; Wijns, William; Tendera, Michal; Terzic, Andre

2016-02-01

Cardiopoiesis is a conditioning programme that aims to upgrade the cardioregenerative aptitude of patient-derived stem cells through lineage specification. Cardiopoietic stem cells tested initially for feasibility and safety exhibited signs of clinical benefit in patients with ischaemic heart failure (HF) warranting definitive evaluation. Accordingly, CHART-1 is designed as a large randomized, sham-controlled multicentre study aimed to validate cardiopoietic stem cell therapy. Patients (n = 240) with chronic HF secondary to ischaemic heart disease, reduced LVEF (Heart Failure Questionnaire score, 6 min walk test, LV end-systolic volume, and LVEF at 9 months. The secondary efficacy endpoint is the time to cardiovascular death or worsening HF at 12 months. Safety endpoints include mortality, readmissions, aborted sudden deaths, and serious adverse events at 12 and 24 months. The CHART-1 clinical trial is powered to examine the therapeutic impact of lineage-directed stem cells as a strategy to achieve cardiac regeneration in HF populations. On completion, CHART-1 will offer a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of cardiopoietic stem cells in the treatment of chronic ischaemic HF. NCT01768702. © 2015 The Authors European Journal of Heart Failure © 2015 European Society of Cardiology.

Becoming a patient with heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Stull, D E; Starling, R; Haas, G; Young, J B

1999-01-01

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the process of becoming a patient with heart failure, a process of identity formation. Are there clues in the patients' stories about heart failure that might give us a better idea of how patients adjust to heart failure and what heart failure means to them? Meanings that individuals attach to events or situations are central to development of identity and subsequent behaviors. Qualitative methods involving detailed interviews and grounded theory method were used in an outpatient cardiology department of a large health care facility in northeast Ohio. Twenty-one patients with a diagnosis of heart failure were conveniently selected and interviewed for this research. Patients were selected on the basis of having a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less and New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV. Other possible selection criteria (eg, VO(2Max ), walk test, or dyspnea) were not available for all patients and thus did not constitute consistent selection criteria. A broad net was cast for patients with varying characteristics to see if common processes and experiences existed regardless of the differences in clinical indicators. Patients were interviewed in the examining room as part of a regularly scheduled visit with their cardiologists. All interviews were tape recorded and fully transcribed. Field notes and relevant patient chart data (eg, age, sex, race, marital status, cause of heart failure, comorbidities, history of hospitalization, New York Heart Association functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction) were included in the transcribed interviews. The transcribed interview was read and responses were given initial conceptual codes. These coded passages were categorized according to more abstract categories or concepts and underlying processes that encompass them. This process continues until all relevant passages have been categorized and subsumed under higher-order (more

A Study of the Impact of Peak Demand on Increasing Vulnerability of Cascading Failures to Extreme Contingency Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Vallem, Mallikarjuna R.; Nguyen, Tony B.; Samaan, Nader A.; Berscheid, Alan P.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng

2017-10-02

The vulnerability of large power systems to cascading failures and major blackouts has become evident since the Northeast blackout in 1965. Based on analyses of the series of cascading blackouts in the past decade, the research community realized the urgent need to develop better methods, tools, and practices for performing cascading-outage analysis and for evaluating mitigations that are easily accessible by utility planning engineers. PNNL has developed the Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) as an open-platform and publicly available methodology to help develop applications that aim to improve the capabilities of power planning engineers to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT analysis will help identify potential vulnerabilities and allow study of mitigation solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages in technically sound and effective ways. Using the DCAT capability, we examined the impacts of various load conditions to identify situations in which the power grid may encounter cascading outages that could lead to potential blackouts. This paper describes the usefulness of the DCAT tool and how it helps to understand potential impacts of load demand on cascading failures on the power system.

Initiation of trailing edge failure in full-scale wind turbine blade test

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haselbach, Philipp Ulrich; Branner, Kim

2016-01-01

non-linear buckling effect of the trailing edge under combined loading, and how it affects the ultimate strength of a blade in a trailing-edge failure dominated load direction were investigated. The study details the interaction between trailing edge buckling on damage onset and sandwich panel failure...

Canada - Atomic Energy Control Board, Canada. Summary of a common cause failure event which occurred in a Canadian utility. 'Failure to Verify Poison Isotopic'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

Operating Policies and Principles (OP and Ps) are referenced in the reactor operating license. They contain not only general safety principles, but also define safety parameters and their numerical values for the operation of the nuclear power plant. The event described highlights the difficulties to implement the OP and Ps into detailed purchase orders. In Candu reactors gadolinium nitrate and boric oxide are used as neutron absorbers in the moderator. The concentration of neutron absorbers in the moderator is safety significant because a small change in concentration in coincidence with other failures (e.g. LOCA) can result in a sudden increase of power. To ensure that new shipments of gadolinium nitrate or boric acid meet the required specifications, these must undergo quarantine so that samples could be taken and forwarded for analysis. The chemistry unit of the NPP issued this requirements in a 'note to file'. In the event, two separated purchase orders, one for gadolinium nitrate and one for boric oxide, were placed. The purchase orders did not stipulate the requirements to quarantine, inform the chemistry unit or to analyse samples. They only stated that correct isotopic and chemical purity were required. The gadolinium nitrate as well as the boron oxide were both not quarantined and even the purity was not verified. The chemistry unit felt that a 'note to file' memo was sufficient to ensure that the OP and Ps are met taking into account the low shipment rate and sufficient experiences before. The analysis of the event revealed several causal factors. Four main factors were pointed out: - Work practices, - Resource Management, - Written communication, - Managerial methods. The actions taken after the event focused on the identified deficiencies

CT fluoroscopy-guided renal tumour cutting needle biopsy. Retrospective evaluation of diagnostic yield, safety, and risk factors for diagnostic failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iguchi, Toshihiro; Hiraki, Takao; Matsui, Yusuke; Fujiwara, Hiroyasu; Sakurai, Jun; Masaoka, Yoshihisa; Gobara, Hideo; Kanazawa, Susumu

2018-01-01

To evaluate retrospectively the diagnostic yield, safety, and risk factors for diagnostic failure of computed tomography (CT) fluoroscopy-guided renal tumour biopsy. Biopsies were performed for 208 tumours (mean diameter 2.3 cm; median diameter 2.1 cm; range 0.9-8.5 cm) in 199 patients. One hundred and ninety-nine tumours were ≤4 cm. All 208 initial procedures were divided into diagnostic success and failure groups. Multiple variables related to the patients, lesions, and procedures were assessed to determine the risk factors for diagnostic failure. After performing 208 initial and nine repeat biopsies, 180 malignancies and 15 benign tumours were pathologically diagnosed, whereas 13 were not diagnosed. In 117 procedures, 118 Grade I and one Grade IIIa adverse events (AEs) occurred. Neither Grade ≥IIIb AEs nor tumour seeding were observed within a median follow-up period of 13.7 months. Logistic regression analysis revealed only small tumour size (≤1.5 cm; odds ratio 3.750; 95% confidence interval 1.362-10.326; P = 0.011) to be a significant risk factor for diagnostic failure. CT fluoroscopy-guided renal tumour biopsy is a safe procedure with a high diagnostic yield. A small tumour size (≤1.5 cm) is a significant risk factor for diagnostic failure. (orig.)

CT fluoroscopy-guided renal tumour cutting needle biopsy. Retrospective evaluation of diagnostic yield, safety, and risk factors for diagnostic failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iguchi, Toshihiro; Hiraki, Takao; Matsui, Yusuke; Fujiwara, Hiroyasu; Sakurai, Jun; Masaoka, Yoshihisa; Gobara, Hideo; Kanazawa, Susumu [Okayama University Medical School, Department of Radiology, Okayama (Japan)

2018-01-15

To evaluate retrospectively the diagnostic yield, safety, and risk factors for diagnostic failure of computed tomography (CT) fluoroscopy-guided renal tumour biopsy. Biopsies were performed for 208 tumours (mean diameter 2.3 cm; median diameter 2.1 cm; range 0.9-8.5 cm) in 199 patients. One hundred and ninety-nine tumours were ≤4 cm. All 208 initial procedures were divided into diagnostic success and failure groups. Multiple variables related to the patients, lesions, and procedures were assessed to determine the risk factors for diagnostic failure. After performing 208 initial and nine repeat biopsies, 180 malignancies and 15 benign tumours were pathologically diagnosed, whereas 13 were not diagnosed. In 117 procedures, 118 Grade I and one Grade IIIa adverse events (AEs) occurred. Neither Grade ≥IIIb AEs nor tumour seeding were observed within a median follow-up period of 13.7 months. Logistic regression analysis revealed only small tumour size (≤1.5 cm; odds ratio 3.750; 95% confidence interval 1.362-10.326; P = 0.011) to be a significant risk factor for diagnostic failure. CT fluoroscopy-guided renal tumour biopsy is a safe procedure with a high diagnostic yield. A small tumour size (≤1.5 cm) is a significant risk factor for diagnostic failure. (orig.)

Results of the event sequence reliability benchmark exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silvestri, E.

1990-01-01

The Event Sequence Reliability Benchmark Exercise is the fourth of a series of benchmark exercises on reliability and risk assessment, with specific reference to nuclear power plant applications, and is the logical continuation of the previous benchmark exercises on System Analysis Common Cause Failure and Human Factors. The reference plant is the Nuclear Power Plant at Grohnde Federal Republic of Germany a 1300 MW PWR plant of KWU design. The specific objective of the Exercise is to model, to quantify and to analyze such event sequences initiated by the occurrence of a loss of offsite power that involve the steam generator feed. The general aim is to develop a segment of a risk assessment, which ought to include all the specific aspects and models of quantification, such as common canal failure, Human Factors and System Analysis, developed in the previous reliability benchmark exercises, with the addition of the specific topics of dependences between homologous components belonging to different systems featuring in a given event sequence and of uncertainty quantification, to end up with an overall assessment of: - the state of the art in risk assessment and the relative influences of quantification problems in a general risk assessment framework. The Exercise has been carried out in two phases, both requiring modelling and quantification, with the second phase adopting more restrictive rules and fixing certain common data, as emerged necessary from the first phase. Fourteen teams have participated in the Exercise mostly from EEC countries, with one from Sweden and one from the USA. (author)

Failure Waves in Cylindrical Glass Bars

Science.gov (United States)

Cazamias, James U.; Bless, Stephan J.; Marder, Michael P.

1997-07-01

Failure waves, a propagating front separating virgin and comminuted material, have been receiving a fair amount of attention the last couple of years. While most scientists have been looking at failure waves in plate impact geometries, we have conducted a series of experiments on Pyrex bars. In this paper, we present two types of photographic data from a series of tests. A streak camera was used to determine velocities of the failure front as a function of impact stress. A polaroid camera and a flash lamp provide detailed pictures of the actual event. Attempts were made to observe failure waves in amorphous quartz and acrylic.

Provisional crown failures in dental school predoctoral clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hyde, Jeffrey D; Bader, James A; Shugars, Daniel A

2007-11-01

Following a preliminary study indicating that at least 10 percent of single-unit crown temporary restorations failed in patients who received treatment by predoctoral students, a comprehensive examination of provisional crown failure was initiated to identify strategies to reduce the failure rate. For all provisionalized, natural tooth, single-unit crown preparations in University of North Carolina School of Dentistry predoctoral clinics for one year (N=1008), we noted tooth type, type of crown, student level, faculty coverage experience, treatment clinic, temporary material and luting agent, and retreatment (failure) of the provisional restoration. For failures, we also noted the stage of crown preparation at failure and the time since initial placement of the temporary. We analyzed these data using simple cross-tabs and logistic regression on need for retreatment (alpha =0.05). The failure rate was 18.75 percent (N=189). The median time to failure was twelve days; the 25(th) and 75(th) percentiles were six and twenty-six days. Significant risk factors, in order of odds ratio estimates, were molar tooth, second- or third-year student, and inexperienced faculty. Most provisional failures occurred during the final preparation phase of treatment. Provisional restoration failure is more frequent than was initially suspected from preliminary studies. Strategies for institutional intervention to reduce provisional restoration failure include greater attention to evaluating provisional crowns placed by inexperienced students (sophomores and juniors) and placing more emphasis on the retentiveness of provisional restorations reused following the final impression. Review of provisional evaluation procedures is also indicated for faculty who do not routinely supervise these procedures.

Probabilistic analysis on the failure of reactivity control for the PWR

Science.gov (United States)

Sony Tjahyani, D. T.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

The fundamental safety function of the power reactor is to control reactivity, to remove heat from the reactor, and to confine radioactive material. The safety analysis is used to ensure that each parameter is fulfilled during the design and is done by deterministic and probabilistic method. The analysis of reactivity control is important to be done because it will affect the other of fundamental safety functions. The purpose of this research is to determine the failure probability of the reactivity control and its failure contribution on a PWR design. The analysis is carried out by determining intermediate events, which cause the failure of reactivity control. Furthermore, the basic event is determined by deductive method using the fault tree analysis. The AP1000 is used as the object of research. The probability data of component failure or human error, which is used in the analysis, is collected from IAEA, Westinghouse, NRC and other published documents. The results show that there are six intermediate events, which can cause the failure of the reactivity control. These intermediate events are uncontrolled rod bank withdrawal at low power or full power, malfunction of boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal, malfunction of improper position of fuel assembly and ejection of control rod. The failure probability of reactivity control is 1.49E-03 per year. The causes of failures which are affected by human factor are boron dilution, misalignment of control rod withdrawal and malfunction of improper position for fuel assembly. Based on the assessment, it is concluded that the failure probability of reactivity control on the PWR is still within the IAEA criteria.

Analysis of the initiating events in HIV-1 particle assembly and genome packaging.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sebla B Kutluay

2010-11-01

Full Text Available HIV-1 Gag drives a number of events during the genesis of virions and is the only viral protein required for the assembly of virus-like particles in vitro and in cells. Although a reasonable understanding of the processes that accompany the later stages of HIV-1 assembly has accrued, events that occur at the initiation of assembly are less well defined. In this regard, important uncertainties include where in the cell Gag first multimerizes and interacts with the viral RNA, and whether Gag-RNA interaction requires or induces Gag multimerization in a living cell. To address these questions, we developed assays in which protein crosslinking and RNA/protein co-immunoprecipitation were coupled with membrane flotation analyses in transfected or infected cells. We found that interaction between Gag and viral RNA occurred in the cytoplasm and was independent of the ability of Gag to localize to the plasma membrane. However, Gag:RNA binding was stabilized by the C-terminal domain (CTD of capsid (CA, which participates in Gag-Gag interactions. We also found that Gag was present as monomers and low-order multimers (e.g. dimers but did not form higher-order multimers in the cytoplasm. Rather, high-order multimers formed only at the plasma membrane and required the presence of a membrane-binding signal, but not a Gag domain (the CA-CTD that is essential for complete particle assembly. Finally, sequential RNA-immunoprecipitation assays indicated that at least a fraction of Gag molecules can form multimers on viral genomes in the cytoplasm. Taken together, our results suggest that HIV-1 particle assembly is initiated by the interaction between Gag and viral RNA in the cytoplasm and that this initial Gag-RNA encounter involves Gag monomers or low order multimers. These interactions per se do not induce or require high-order Gag multimerization in the cytoplasm. Instead, membrane interactions are necessary for higher order Gag multimerization and subsequent

Definitions of biochemical failure in prostate cancer following radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Griffith, Kent A.; Sandler, Howard M.

2001-01-01

Purpose: The American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ASTRO) published a consensus panel definition of biochemical failure following radiation therapy for prostate cancer. In this paper, we develop a series of alternative definitions of biochemical failure. Using data from 688 patients, we evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of the various definitions, with respect to a defined 'clinically meaningful' outcome. Methods and Materials: The ASTRO definition of biochemical failure requires 3 consecutive rises in prostate-specific antigen (PSA). We considered several modifications to the standard definition: to require PSA rises of a certain magnitude, to consider 2 instead of 3 rises, to require the final PSA value to be greater than a fixed cutoff level, and to define biochemical failure based on the slope of PSA over 1, 1.5, or 2 years. A clinically meaningful failure is defined as local recurrence, distant metastases, initiation of unplanned hormonal therapy, unplanned radical prostatectomy, or a PSA>25 later than 6 months after radiation. Results: Requiring the final PSA in a series of consecutive rises to be larger than 1.5 ng/mL increased the specificity of biochemical failure. For a fixed specificity, defining biochemical failure based on 2 consecutive rises, or the slope over the last year, could increase the sensitivity by up to approximately 20%, compared to the ASTRO definition. Using a rule based on the slope over the previous year or 2 rises leads to a slightly earlier detection of biochemical failure than does the ASTRO definition. Even with the best rule, only approximately 20% of true failures are biochemically detected more than 1 year before the clinically meaningful event time. Conclusion: There is potential for improvement in the ASTRO consensus definition of biochemical failure. Further research is needed, in studies with long follow-up times, to evaluate the relationship between various definitions of biochemical failure and

Guidelines for time-to-event end point definitions in sarcomas and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) trials: results of the DATECAN initiative (Definition for the Assessment of Time-to-event Endpoints in CANcer trials)†.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellera, C A; Penel, N; Ouali, M; Bonvalot, S; Casali, P G; Nielsen, O S; Delannes, M; Litière, S; Bonnetain, F; Dabakuyo, T S; Benjamin, R S; Blay, J-Y; Bui, B N; Collin, F; Delaney, T F; Duffaud, F; Filleron, T; Fiore, M; Gelderblom, H; George, S; Grimer, R; Grosclaude, P; Gronchi, A; Haas, R; Hohenberger, P; Issels, R; Italiano, A; Jooste, V; Krarup-Hansen, A; Le Péchoux, C; Mussi, C; Oberlin, O; Patel, S; Piperno-Neumann, S; Raut, C; Ray-Coquard, I; Rutkowski, P; Schuetze, S; Sleijfer, S; Stoeckle, E; Van Glabbeke, M; Woll, P; Gourgou-Bourgade, S; Mathoulin-Pélissier, S

2015-05-01

The use of potential surrogate end points for overall survival, such as disease-free survival (DFS) or time-to-treatment failure (TTF) is increasingly common in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in cancer. However, the definition of time-to-event (TTE) end points is rarely precise and lacks uniformity across trials. End point definition can impact trial results by affecting estimation of treatment effect and statistical power. The DATECAN initiative (Definition for the Assessment of Time-to-event End points in CANcer trials) aims to provide recommendations for definitions of TTE end points. We report guidelines for RCT in sarcomas and gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). We first carried out a literature review to identify TTE end points (primary or secondary) reported in publications of RCT. An international multidisciplinary panel of experts proposed recommendations for the definitions of these end points. Recommendations were developed through a validated consensus method formalizing the degree of agreement among experts. Recommended guidelines for the definition of TTE end points commonly used in RCT for sarcomas and GIST are provided for adjuvant and metastatic settings, including DFS, TTF, time to progression and others. Use of standardized definitions should facilitate comparison of trials' results, and improve the quality of trial design and reporting. These guidelines could be of particular interest to research scientists involved in the design, conduct, reporting or assessment of RCT such as investigators, statisticians, reviewers, editors or regulatory authorities. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Rare event simulation using Monte Carlo methods

CERN Document Server

Rubino, Gerardo

2009-01-01

In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. ...

ξ common cause failure model and method for defense effectiveness estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Zhaohuan

1991-08-01

Two issues have been dealt. One is to develop an event based parametric model called ξ-CCF model. Its parameters are expressed in the fraction of the progressive multiplicities of failure events. By these expressions, the contribution of each multiple failure can be presented more clearly. It can help to select defense tactics against common cause failures. The other is to provide a method which is based on the operational experience and engineering judgement to estimate the effectiveness of defense tactics. It is expressed in terms of reduction matrix for a given tactics on a specific plant in the event by event form. The application of practical example shows that the model in cooperation with the method can simply estimate the effectiveness of defense tactics. It can be easily used by the operators and its application may be extended

Is human failure a stochastic process?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dougherty, Ed M.

1997-01-01

Human performance results in failure events that occur with a risk-significant frequency. System analysts have taken for granted the random (stochastic) nature of these events in engineering assessments such as risk assessment. However, cognitive scientists and error technologists, at least those who have interest in human reliability, have, over the recent years, claimed that human error does not need this stochastic framework. Yet they still use the language appropriate to stochastic processes. This paper examines the potential for the stochastic nature of human failure production as the basis for human reliability analysis. It distinguishes and leaves to others, however, the epistemic uncertainties over the possible probability models for the real variability of human performance

The application of Petri nets to failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, T.S.; Chiou, S.B.

1997-01-01

Unlike the technique of fault tree analysis that has been widely applied to system failure analysis in reliability engineering, this study presents a Petri net approach to failure analysis. It is essentially a graphical method for describing relations between conditions and events. The use of Petri nets in failure analysis enables to replace logic gate functions in fault trees, efficiently obtain minimal cut sets, and absorb models. It is demonstrated that for failure analysis Petri nets are more efficient than fault trees. In addition, this study devises an alternative; namely, a trapezoidal graph method in order to account for failure scenarios. Examples validate this novel method in dealing with failure analysis

Portable Sleep Monitoring for Diagnosing Sleep Apnea in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Aurora, R Nisha; Patil, Susheel P; Punjabi, Naresh M

2018-04-21

Sleep apnea is an underdiagnosed condition in patients with heart failure. Efficient identification of sleep apnea is needed, as treatment may improve heart failure-related outcomes. Currently, use of portable sleep monitoring in hospitalized patients and those at risk for central sleep apnea is discouraged. This study examined whether portable sleep monitoring with respiratory polygraphy can accurately diagnose sleep apnea in patients hospitalized with decompensated heart failure. Hospitalized patients with decompensated heart failure underwent concurrent respiratory polygraphy and polysomnography. Both recordings were scored for obstructive and central disordered breathing events in a blinded fashion, using standard criteria, and the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was determined. Pearson's correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots were used to examine the concordance among the overall, obstructive, and central AHI values derived by respiratory polygraphy and polysomnography. The sample consisted of 53 patients (47% women) with a mean age of 59.0 years. The correlation coefficient for the overall AHI from the two diagnostic methods was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.96). The average difference in AHI between the two methods was 3.6 events/h. Analyses of the central and obstructive AHI values showed strong concordance between the two methods, with correlation coefficients of 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96-0.99) and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.84-0.95), respectively. Complete agreement in the classification of sleep apnea severity between the two methods was seen in 89% of the sample. Portable sleep monitoring can accurately diagnose sleep apnea in hospitalized patients with heart failure and may promote early initiation of treatment. Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy and predictors of success of noninvasive ventilation for prevention of extubation failure in critically ill children with heart disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Punkaj; Kuperstock, Jacob E; Hashmi, Sana; Arnolde, Vickie; Gossett, Jeffrey M; Prodhan, Parthak; Venkataraman, Shekhar; Roth, Stephen J

2013-04-01

The study aimed primarily to evaluate the efficacy of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) and to identify possible predictors for success of NIV therapy in preventing extubation failure in critically ill children with heart disease. The secondary objectives of this study were to assess the efficacy of prophylactic NIV therapy initiated immediately after tracheal extubation and to determine the characteristics, outcomes, and complications associated with NIV therapy in pediatric cardiac patients. A retrospective review examined the medical records of all children between the ages 1 day and 18 years who sustained acute respiratory failure (ARF) that required NIV in the cardiovascular intensive care unit (CVICU) at Lucile Packard Children's Hospital between January 2008 and June 2010. Patients were assigned to a prophylactic group if NIV was started directly after extubation and to a nonprophylactic group if NIV was started after signs and symptoms of ARF developed. Patients were designated as responders if they received NIV and did not require reintubation during their CVICU stay and nonresponders if they failed NIV and reintubation was performed. The data collected included demographic data, preexisting conditions, pre-event characteristics, event characteristics, and outcome data. The outcome data evaluated included success or failure of NIV, duration of NIV, CVICU length of stay (LOS), hospital LOS, and hospital mortality. The two complications of NIV assessed in the study included nasal bridge or forehead skin necrosis and pneumothorax. The 221 eligible events during the study period involved 172 responders (77.8 %) and 49 nonresponders (22.2 %). A total of 201 events experienced by the study cohort received continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), with 156 responders (78 %), whereas 20 events received bilevel positive airway pressure (BiPAP), with 16 responders (80 %). In the study, 58 events (26.3 %) were assigned to the prophylactic group and 163 events (73

The five-point Likert scale for dyspnea can properly assess the degree of pulmonary congestion and predict adverse events in heart failure outpatients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina K. Weber

2014-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Proper assessment of dyspnea is important in patients with heart failure. Our aim was to evaluate the use of the 5-point Likert scale for dyspnea to assess the degree of pulmonary congestion and to determine the prognostic value of this scale for predicting adverse events in heart failure outpatients. METHODS: We undertook a prospective study of outpatients with moderate to severe heart failure. The 5-point Likert scale was applied during regular outpatient visits, along with clinical assessments. Lung ultrasound with ≥15 B-lines and an amino-terminal portion of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP level >1000 pg/mL were used as a reference for pulmonary congestion. The patients were then assessed every 30 days during follow-up to identify adverse clinical outcomes. RESULTS: We included 58 patients (65.5% male, age 43.5±11 years with a mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 27±6%. In total, 29.3% of these patients had heart failure with ischemic etiology. Additionally, pulmonary congestion, as diagnosed by lung ultrasound, was present in 58% of patients. A higher degree of dyspnea (3 or 4 points on the 5-point Likert scale was significantly correlated with a higher number of B-lines (p = 0.016. Patients stratified into Likert = 3-4 were at increased risk of admission compared with those in class 1-2 after adjusting for age, left ventricular ejection fraction, New York Heart Association functional class and levels of NT-proBNP >1000 pg/mL (HR = 4.9, 95% CI 1.33-18.64, p = 0.017. CONCLUSION: In our series, higher baseline scores on the 5-point Likert scale were related to pulmonary congestion and were independently associated with adverse events during follow-up. This simple clinical tool can help to identify patients who are more likely to decompensate and whose treatment should be intensified.

Event classification related to overflow of solvent containing uranium according to the INES scale (International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale); Classificacao do evento de transbordamento de solvente contendo uranio segundo a escala INES (International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dourado, Eneida R.G.; Assis, Juliana T. de; Lage, Ricardo F., E-mail: cneida@inb.gov.br, E-mail: julianateixeira@inb.gov.br, E-mail: rlage@inb.gov.br [lndustrias Nucleares do Brasil S/A (CLISE.P/INB), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Licenciamento Nuclear e Ambiental, Saude e Seguranca; Lopes, Karina B., E-mail: karina@inb.gov.br [lndustrias Nucleares do Brasil S/A (CPRAD/INB), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Protecao Radiologica

2013-11-01

This paper aims to frame the event overflow organic solvent rich in uranium, from a decanter of ore beneficiation plant, caused by the fall in the supply of electricity, according to the criteria established by the International Nuclear Event Scale and radiological (INES), facilitating the understanding of the occurrence and communication with the public regarding the radiation safety aspects involved. With the fall of electricity, routine procedures in situations of installation stop were performed, however, due to operational failure, the valve on the transfer line liquor was not closed. Thus, the mixer continued being fed with liquor, that led the consequent leakage of solvent loaded with uranium. It reached the drainage system, and the box of rainwater harvesting of the plant. However, immediately after the detection of the event, corrective actions were initiated and the overflow was contained. Regulatory agencies followed the removal of the solvent and on the results of the analysis of environmental monitoring, found that the event did not provide exposure to workers or any other impact. Therefore, comparing the characteristics of the event and the guidelines proposed by the INES scale, it is concluded that the classification of the event is below scale/level 0, confirming the absence of risk to the local population, workers and the environment.

Anticoagulant therapy and outcomes in patients with prior or acute heart failure and acute coronary syndromes: Insights from the APixaban for PRevention of Acute ISchemic Events 2 trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornel, Jan H; Lopes, Renato D; James, Stefan; Stevens, Susanna R; Neely, Megan L; Liaw, Danny; Miller, Julie; Mohan, Puneet; Amerena, John; Raev, Dimitar; Huo, Yong; Urina-Triana, Miguel; Gallegos Cazorla, Alex; Vinereanu, Dragos; Fridrich, Viliam; Harrington, Robert A; Wallentin, Lars; Alexander, John H

2015-04-01

Clinical outcomes and the effects of oral anticoagulants among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and either a history of or acute heart failure (HF) are largely unknown. We aimed to assess the relationship between prior HF or acute HF complicating an index ACS event and subsequent clinical outcomes and the efficacy and safety of apixaban compared with placebo in these populations. High-risk patients were randomly assigned post-ACS to apixaban 5.0 mg or placebo twice daily. Median follow-up was 8 (4-12) months. The primary outcome was cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. The main safety outcome was thrombolysis in myocardial infarction major bleeding. Heart failure was reported in 2,995 patients (41%), either as prior HF (2,076 [28%]) or acute HF (2,028 [27%]). Patients with HF had a very high baseline risk and were more often managed medically. Heart failure was associated with a higher rate of the primary outcome (prior HF: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.73, 95% CI 1.42-2.10, P acute HF: adjusted HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.35-2.01, P acute HF: adjusted HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.82-3.50). Patients with acute HF also had significantly higher rates of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction major bleeding (prior HF: adjusted HR 1.22, 95% CI 0.65-2.27, P = .54, acute HF: adjusted HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.03-3.08, P = .04). There was no statistical evidence of a differential effect of apixaban on clinical events or bleeding in patients with or without prior HF; however, among patients with acute HF, there were numerically fewer events with apixaban than placebo (14.8 vs 19.3, HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.57-1.01, interaction P = .13), a trend that was not seen in patients with prior HF or no HF. In high-risk patients post-ACS, both prior and acute HFs are associated with an increased risk of subsequent clinical events. Apixaban did not significantly reduce clinical events and increased bleeding in patients with and without HF; however, there was a tendency toward fewer clinical

Economic impact of heart failure according to the effects of kidney failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Sicras Mainar, Antoni; Navarro Artieda, Ruth; Ibáñez Nolla, Jordi

2015-01-01

To evaluate the use of health care resources and their cost according to the effects of kidney failure in heart failure patients during 2-year follow-up in a population setting. Observational retrospective study based on a review of medical records. The study included patients ≥ 45 years treated for heart failure from 2008 to 2010. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence/absence of KF. Main outcome variables were comorbidity, clinical status (functional class, etiology), metabolic syndrome, costs, and new cases of cardiovascular events and kidney failure. The cost model included direct and indirect health care costs. Statistical analysis included multiple regression models. The study recruited 1600 patients (prevalence, 4.0%; mean age 72.4 years; women, 59.7%). Of these patients, 70.1% had hypertension, 47.1% had dyslipidemia, and 36.2% had diabetes mellitus. We analyzed 433 patients (27.1%) with kidney failure and 1167 (72.9%) without kidney failure. Patients with kidney failure were associated with functional class III-IV (54.1% vs 40.8%) and metabolic syndrome (65.3% vs 51.9%, P<.01). The average unit cost was €10,711.40. The corrected cost in the presence of kidney failure was €14,868.20 vs €9,364.50 (P=.001). During follow-up, 11.7% patients developed ischemic heart disease, 18.8% developed kidney failure, and 36.1% developed heart failure exacerbation. Comorbidity associated with heart failure is high. The presence of kidney failure increases the use of health resources and leads to higher costs within the National Health System. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Albania’s Transformation since 1997: Successes and Failures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jusufi Islam

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In 1997 Albania experienced a collapse of order and widespread violence, which resulted in a situation where the government was overthrown and some 2,000 people were killed. The 1997 disorder came as a result of the collapse of fraudulent financial pyramid schemes that had all the features of a war-like economic structure. During the 1997 events, large-scale confiscation and stealing of state assets occurred. Albania’s transitional period from communism to democracy, which began in 1990, led to the establishment of new structures for profiting from the country’s resources. Some of these political and economic structures, in the aftermath of the 1997 events, disappeared and others, including their structural effects, persist and have had an impact on the country’s political stability and economic progress. Today, both the successes and failures of the country are assessed based on the progress that the country has made since the 1997 events. The paper analyses the 1997 events and the transformation of Albania’s political and economic structures between 1997 and 2016, considering both achievements and failures. It looks at how the country has dealt with the post-1997 peace-building and development agenda from the perspective of it being a success. It looks at the factors that led to state failure in 1997 and at the factors that continue and have generated a path dependency to the current political context of the country. Although a lot has been written concerning the 1997 events, very little analysis has been conducted concerning what it means from the perspective of research on state failure. In this context, the proposed paper seeks to offer Albania as a case study example of a transformation process, from the uprising to the current situation, which is characterized as a mixture of successes and failures. The belief is that the proposed paper will point to some lessons learned for the strategies directed at the transformation processes.

Spacecraft electrical power subsystem: Failure behavior, reliability, and multi-state failure analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, So Young; Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

2012-01-01

This article investigates the degradation and failure behavior of spacecraft electrical power subsystem (EPS) on orbit. First, this work provides updated statistical reliability and multi-state failure analyses of spacecraft EPS and its different constituents, namely the batteries, the power distribution, and the solar arrays. The EPS is shown to suffer from infant mortality and to be a major driver of spacecraft unreliability. Over 25% of all spacecraft failures are the result of EPS failures. As a result, satellite manufacturers may wish to pursue targeted improvement to this subsystem, either through better testing or burn-in procedures, better design or parts selection, or additional redundancy. Second, this work investigates potential differences in the EPS degradation and failure behavior for spacecraft in low earth orbits (LEO) and geosynchronous orbits (GEO). This analysis was motivated by the recognition that the power/load cycles and the space environment are significantly different in LEO and GEO, and as such, they may result in different failure behavior for the EPS in these two types of orbits. The results indicate, and quantify the extent to which, the EPS fails differently in LEO and GEO, both in terms of frequency and severity of failure events. A casual summary of the findings can be stated as follows: the EPS fails less frequently but harder (with fatal consequences to the spacecraft) in LEO than in GEO.

Reliability-based failure cause assessment of collapsed bridge during construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Hyun-Ho; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Il-Yoon; Cho, Hyo-Nam; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2006-01-01

Until now, in many forensic reports, the failure cause assessments are usually carried out by a deterministic approach so far. However, it may be possible for the forensic investigation to lead to unreasonable results far from the real collapse scenario, because the deterministic approach does not systematically take into account any information on the uncertainties involved in the failures of structures. Reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability-based forensic engineering) methodology is developed which can incorporate the uncertainties involved in structural failures and structures, and to apply them to the collapsed bridge in order to identify the most critical failure scenario and find the cause that triggered the bridge collapse. Moreover, to save the time and cost of evaluation, an algorithm of automated event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed and possible to automatically calculate the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of failure scenarios. Also, for reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using the Bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in the forensic report. For the applicability, the proposed approach is applied to the Hang-ju Grand Bridge, which collapsed during construction, and compared with deterministic approach

Consequence evaluation of hypothetical reactor pressure vessel support failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, S.C.; Holman, G.S.; Lambert, H.E.

1991-01-01

This paper describes a consequence evaluation to address safety concerns raised by the radiation embrittlement of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) supports for the Trojan nuclear power plant. The study comprises a structural evaluation and an effects evaluation and assumes that all four reactor vessel supports have completely lost the load carrying capability. The structural evaluation concludes that the Trojan reactor coolant loop (RCL) piping is capable of transferring loads to the steam generator (SG) supports and the reactor coolant pump (RCP) supports and that the SG supports and the RCP supports have sufficient design margins to accommodate additional loads transferred to them through the RCL piping. The effects evaluation, employing a systems analysis approach, investigates initiating events and the reliability of the engineered safeguard systems as the RPV is subject to movements caused by the RPV support failure. The evaluation identifies a number of areas for further investigation and concludes that a hypothetical failure of the Trojan RPV supports due to radiation embrittlement will not result in consequences of significant safety concerns. (author)

Social interaction anxiety and the discounting of positive interpersonal events.

Science.gov (United States)

Vassilopoulos, Stephanos P; Banerjee, Robin

2010-10-01

Recent research has indicated that individuals with social interaction anxiety make biased interpretations of positive social interactions, with greater general apprehension in response to such events and more negative predictions about the future. There has also been some preliminary evidence for a second facet of interpretation bias, namely a failure to accept others' positive reactions at face value, but this has so far not been adequately studied. The present study developed a new measure of this "discounting" dimension and utilized a nonclinical sample of undergraduate students to provide an initial analysis of the scale. Results provide early support for the psychometric properties of our scale, and indicate that discounting mediates the relationship between social interaction anxiety and low positive affect, over and above the previously studied aspect of positive event interpretation bias. The implications for treatment interventions and further research are discussed.

Creep-Fatigue Failure Diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Holdsworth, Stuart

2015-01-01

Failure diagnosis invariably involves consideration of both associated material condition and the results of a mechanical analysis of prior operating history. This Review focuses on these aspects with particular reference to creep-fatigue failure diagnosis. Creep-fatigue cracking can be due to a spectrum of loading conditions ranging from pure cyclic to mainly steady loading with infrequent off-load transients. These require a range of mechanical analysis approaches, a number of which are reviewed. The microstructural information revealing material condition can vary with alloy class. In practice, the detail of the consequent cracking mechanism(s) can be camouflaged by oxidation at high temperatures, although the presence of oxide on fracture surfaces can be used to date events leading to failure. Routine laboratory specimen post-test examination is strongly recommended to characterise the detail of deformation and damage accumulation under known and well-controlled loading conditions to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of failure diagnosis. PMID:28793676

Data collection on component malfunctions and failures of JET ICRH system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinna, T.; Cambi, G.

2007-01-01

The objective of the activity was to collect and analyse data coming out from operating experiences gained in the Joint European Torus (JET) for the Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system in order to enrich the data collection on failures of components used in fusion facilities. Alarms/Failures and malfunctions occurred in the years of operations from March 1996 to November 2005, including information on failure modes and, where possible, causes of the failures, have been identified. Beyond information on failures and alarms events, also data related to crowbar events have been collected. About 3400 events classified as alarms or failures related to specific components or sub-systems were identified by analysing the 25 hand-written logbooks made available by the ICRH operation staff. Information about the JET pulses in which the ICRH system was operated has been extracted from the tick sheets covering the whole considered time interval. 20 hand written tick sheets cover the period from March 1996 to middle May 2003, while tick sheets recorded as excel files cover the period from May 2003 to November 2005. By analysing the tick sheets it results that the ICRH was operated during about 12000 plasma pulses. Main statistical values, such as rates of alarms/failures and corresponding standard errors and confidence intervals, have been estimated. Failure rates of systems and components have been evaluated both with regard to the ICRH operation pulses and operating days (days in which at least one ICRH module was requested to operate). Failure probabilities on demand have been evaluated with regard to number of pulses operated. Some of the results are the following: - The highest number of alarms/failures (1243) appears to be related to Erratic /No-output of the Instrumentation and Control (I and C) apparatus, followed by faults (829) of the Tetrode circuits, by faults (466) of the High Voltage Power Supply system and by faults (428) of the Tuning elements. - The

Consequences assessment for fuel channel failure with consequential moderator drain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wahba, N.N.; Bayoumi, M.H.

2002-01-01

This paper documents the consequences of spontaneous pressure tube/consequential calandria tube rupture followed by the ejection of end fittings (as a result of guillotine failure of pressure tube) leading to the drain of the moderator. The event is postulated to occur in conjunction with an independent failure of Emergency Coolant Injection System (ECIS). The results of the detailed consequence assessments are used to propose a course of action to mitigate the consequences of such an event. A methodology based on a lumped-parameter model was developed to assess the consequences of the postulated event. (author)

Debugging Nondeterministic Failures in Linux Programs through Replay Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shakaiba Majeed

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Reproducing a failure is the first and most important step in debugging because it enables us to understand the failure and track down its source. However, many programs are susceptible to nondeterministic failures that are hard to reproduce, which makes debugging extremely difficult. We first address the reproducibility problem by proposing an OS-level replay system for a uniprocessor environment that can capture and replay nondeterministic events needed to reproduce a failure in Linux interactive and event-based programs. We then present an analysis method, called replay analysis, based on the proposed record and replay system to diagnose concurrency bugs in such programs. The replay analysis method uses a combination of static analysis, dynamic tracing during replay, and delta debugging to identify failure-inducing memory access patterns that lead to concurrency failure. The experimental results show that the presented record and replay system has low-recording overhead and hence can be safely used in production systems to catch rarely occurring bugs. We also present few concurrency bug case studies from real-world applications to prove the effectiveness of the proposed bug diagnosis framework.

Research on computer aided testing of pilot response to critical in-flight events

Science.gov (United States)

Giffin, W. C.; Rockwell, T. H.; Smith, P. J.

1984-01-01

Experiments on pilot decision making are described. The development of models of pilot decision making in critical in flight events (CIFE) are emphasized. The following tests are reported on the development of: (1) a frame system representation describing how pilots use their knowledge in a fault diagnosis task; (2) assessment of script norms, distance measures, and Markov models developed from computer aided testing (CAT) data; and (3) performance ranking of subject data. It is demonstrated that interactive computer aided testing either by touch CRT's or personal computers is a useful research and training device for measuring pilot information management in diagnosing system failures in simulated flight situations. Performance is dictated by knowledge of aircraft sybsystems, initial pilot structuring of the failure symptoms and efficient testing of plausible causal hypotheses.

Data needs for common cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parry, G.W.; Paula, H.M.; Rasmuson, D.; Whitehead, D.

1990-01-01

The procedures guide for common cause failure analysis published jointly by USNRC and EPRI requires a detailed historical event analysis. Recent work on the further development of the cause-defense picture of common cause failures introduced in that guide identified the information that is necessary to perform the detailed analysis in an objective manner. This paper summarizes these information needs

Piping failures in United States nuclear power plants 1961-1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bush, S.H.; Do, M.J.; Slavich, A.L.; Chockie, A.D.

1996-01-01

Over 1500 reported piping failures were identified and summarized based on an extensive review of tens of thousands of event reports that have been submitted to the US regulatory agencies over the last 35 years. The data base contains only piping failures; failures in vessels, pumps, valves and steam generators or any cracks that were not through-wall are not included. It was observed that there has been a marked decrease in the number of failures after 1983 for almost all sizes of pipes. This is likely due to the changes in the reporting requirements at that time and the corrective actions taken by utilities to minimize fatigue failures of small lines and IGSCC in BWRs. One failure mechanism that continues to occur is erosion-corrosion, which accounts for most of the ruptures reported and probably is responsible for the absence of downward trends in ruptures. Fatigue-vibration is also a significant contributor to piping failures. However, most of such events occur in lines approx. one inch or less in diameter. Together, erosion-corrosion and fatigue-vibration account for over 43 per cent of the failures. The overwhelming majority of failures have been leaks, over half the failures occurred in pipes with a diameter of one inch or less. Included in the report is a listing of the number of welds in various systems in LWRs

Destructive Single-Event Effects in Diodes

Science.gov (United States)

Casey, Megan C.; Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Campola, Michael J.; Wilcox, Edward P.; Phan, Anthony M.; Label, Kenneth A.

2017-01-01

In this work, we discuss the observed single-event effects in a variety of types of diodes. In addition, we conduct failure analysis on several Schottky diodes that were heavy-ion irradiated. High- and low-magnitude optical microscope images, infrared camera images, and scanning electron microscope images are used to identify and describe the failure locations.

Emotions in memories of success and failure: a cultural perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Meng; Cross, Susan E

2011-08-01

Americans and Chinese tend to behave differently in response to success and failure: Americans tend to persist on a task after success, whereas Chinese tend to persist after failure. This study examined whether cultural differences in emotional reactions to success and failure account for these differences. American and Chinese students recalled personal success and failure events, evaluated the primary emotion evoked by the event, and responded to measures of concerns, appraisals, and willingness to try the same task again. Americans were more likely than Chinese to report that their success enhanced their self-esteem. Chinese were more likely than Americans to estimate that their success would make others jealous and enhance others' respect for their family. Chinese, compared to Americans, viewed failures as more tolerable, as less problematic for their goals, and as less damaging to their self-esteem. Culture moderated the relations between these components of emotion and willingness to try the task again. In short, culturally framed emotional reactions to success and failure result in different patterns of anticipated self-regulation. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Factors associated with β-blocker initiation and discontinuation in a population-based cohort of seniors newly diagnosed with heart failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Girouard C

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Catherine Girouard,1–3 Jean-Pierre Grégoire,1–3 Paul Poirier,2,4 Jocelyne Moisan1–3 1Chair on Adherence to Treatments, Université Laval, 2Faculty of Pharmacy, Université Laval, 3Population Health and Optimal Health Practices Research Unit, CHU de Québec Research Center, 4Quebec Heart and Lung Institute-Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, Canada Purpose: β-Blockers (bisoprolol, carvedilol, and metoprolol are the cornerstone of heart failure (HF management. The incidence rate of β-blocker initiation and discontinuation and their associated factors among seniors with a first HF diagnosis were assessed.Methods: A population-based inception cohort study that included all individuals aged ≥65 years with a first HF diagnosis in Quebec was conducted. β-Blockers initiation among 91,131 patients who were not using β-blockers at the time of HF diagnosis and discontinuation among those who initiated a β-blocker after HF diagnosis were assessed. Stepwise Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR and to identify factors associated with β-blocker initiation and discontinuation.Results: After HF diagnosis, 32,989 (36.2% individuals initiated a β-blocker. Of these, 15,408 (46.7% discontinued their β-blocker during the follow-up. Individuals more likely to initiate a β-blocker were those diagnosed in a recent calendar year (2009: HR, 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.00–2.23 and diagnosed by a cardiologist (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.34–1.42. Individuals less likely to initiate were those aged ≥90 years (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.61–0.68 and those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64–0.68. Individuals more likely to discontinue were those with more than nine medical consultations (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.10–1.18 and those with dementia (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01–1.27. Individuals less likely to discontinue were those diagnosed in a recent calendar year (2009: HR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.65–0.82 and

Seeing failure in your life: Imagery perspective determines whether self-esteem shapes reactions to recalled and imagined failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Libby, Lisa K; Valenti, Greta; Pfent, Alison; Eibach, Richard P

2011-12-01

The present research reveals that when it comes to recalling and imagining failure in one's life, changing how one looks at the event can change its impact on well-being; however, the nature of the effect depends on an aspect of one's self-concept, namely, self-esteem. Five studies measured or manipulated the visual perspective (internal first-person vs. external third-person) individuals used to mentally image recalled or imagined personal failures. It has been proposed that imagery perspective determines whether people's reactions to an event are shaped bottom-up by concrete features of the event (first-person) or top-down by their self-concept (third-person; L. K. Libby & R. P. Eibach, 2011b). Evidence suggests that differences in the self-concepts of individuals with low and high self-esteem (LSEs and HSEs) are responsible for self-esteem differences in reaction to failure, leading LSEs to have more negative thoughts and feelings about themselves (e.g., M. H. Kernis, J. Brockner, & B. S. Frankel, 1989). Thus, the authors predicted, and found, that low self-esteem was associated with greater overgeneralization--operationalized as negativity in accessible self-knowledge and feelings of shame--only when participants had pictured failure from the third-person perspective and not from the first-person. Further, picturing failure from the third-person, rather than first-person, perspective, increased shame and the negativity of accessible knowledge among LSEs, whereas it decreased shame among HSEs. Results help to distinguish between different theoretical accounts of how imagery perspective functions and have implications for the study of top-down and bottom-up influences on self-judgment and emotion, as well as for the role of perspective and abstraction in coping.

Structures for common-cause failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaurio, J.K.

1981-01-01

Common-cause failure methodology and terminology have been reviewed and structured to provide a systematical basis for addressing and developing models and methods for quantification. The structure is based on (1) a specific set of definitions, (2) categories based on the way faults are attributable to a common cause, and (3) classes based on the time of entry and the time of elimination of the faults. The failure events are then characterized by their likelihood or frequency and the average residence time. The structure provides a basis for selecting computational models, collecting and evaluating data and assessing the importance of various failure types, and for developing effective defences against common-cause failure. The relationships of this and several other structures are described

Updating of adventitious fuel pin failure frequency in sodium-cooled fast reactors and probabilistic risk assessment on consequent severe accident in Monju

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukano, Yoshitaka; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Nishimura, Masahiro; Naruto, Kenichi

2015-01-01

Experimental studies, deterministic approaches and probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) on local fault (LF) propagation in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) have been performed in many countries because LFs have been historically considered as one of the possible causes of severe accidents. Adventitious-fuel-pin-failures (AFPFs) have been considered to be the most dominant initiators of LFs in these PRAs because of their high frequency of occurrence during reactor operation and possibility of fuel-element-failure-propagation (FEFP). A PRA on FEFP from AFPF (FEFPA) in the Japanese prototype SFR (Monju) was performed in this study based on the state-of-the-art knowledge, reflecting the most recent operation procedures under off-normal conditions. Frequency of occurrence of AFPF in SFRs which was the initiating event of the event tree in this PRA was updated using a variety of methods based on the above-mentioned latest review on experiences of this phenomenon. As a result, the frequency of occurrence of, and the core damage frequency (CDF) from, AFPF in Monju was significantly reduced to a negligible magnitude compared with those in the existing PRAs. It was, therefore concluded that the CDF of FEFPA in Monju could be comprised in that of anticipated transient without scram or protected loss of heat sink events from both the viewpoint of occurrence probability and consequences. (author)

Determinants of durability of first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen and time from first-line failure to second-line antiretroviral therapy initiation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Desmonde, Sophie; Eboua, François T; Malateste, Karen

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: We described reasons for switching to second-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) and time to switch in HIV-infected children failing first-line ART in West Africa. METHODS: We included all children aged 15 years or less, starting ART (at least three drugs) in the paediatric Ie...... post-ART initiation, 188 (7%) had switched to second-line. The most frequent reasons were drug stock outs (20%), toxicity (18%), treatment failure (16%) and poor adherence (8%). Over the 24-month follow-up period, 322 (12%) children failed first-line ART after a median time of 7 months...... rare and switches after an immunological failure were insufficient. These gaps reveal that it is crucial to advocate for both sustainable access to first-line and alternative regimens to provide adequate roll-out of paediatric ART programmes....

Policy Debate | Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Initiative : What Can We Learn from its Failure?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pamela L. Martin

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Editor’s note: This paper is a contribution to the ‘Policy Debate’ section of International Development Policy. In this section, academics, policy-makers and practioners engage in a dialogue on global development challenges. Papers are copy-edited but not peer-reviewed. Instead, the initial thematic contribution is followed by critical comments and reactions from scholars and/or policy-makers.In her article ‘Pay to Preserve: The Global Politics of Ecuador’s Yasuní-ITT Proposal’, published in DevPol’s special issue on  Energy and Development in 2011, Pamela L. Martin, Associate Professor of Politics at the Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, provided a favourable outlook on Ecuador’s innovative environmental governance mechanism. Accordingly, its unique potential lay in its objective of contributing towards sustainable development and social justice and in case of success, the author even predicted a possible replication in other developing countries. Despite its benefits, the initiative was abandoned in 2013. In this paper, Martin revisits the initiative and analyses the reasons for its failure, namely President Correa’s public pursuit of a Plan B, entering into negotiations with oil firms interested to explore the ITT reserves. Moreover, the initiative was in stark competition with the national REDD+ programme, the mainstream policy approach to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation against payments, which is being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC.Pamela L. Martin’s article is followed by a response by Dr. Imme Scholz, Deputy Director of the German Development Institute/Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE. She examines why Germany, as the largest European donor, withdrew its support for the Yasuní-ITT Initiative.Readers who are intetested are invited to contribute to this policy debate on our blog .Download the whole

Seventh-day syndrome: a catastrophic event after liver transplantation: case report.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, M; Ferreira, I; Gandara, J; Ferreira, S; Lopes, V; Coelho, A; Vizcaino, R; Marinho, A; Daniel, J; Miranda, H P

2015-05-01

Seventh-day syndrome (7DS) is an early serious complication of liver transplantation, characterized by sudden failure of a previously normally functioning liver graft ∼1 week after the surgery. Although it is an uncommon event, it has major associated mortality. As its etiology is yet to be recognized, the only currently available treatment is retransplantation. We present 3 cases of orthotopic liver transplantation recipients who had an initial uneventful recovery after surgery followed by a dramatic rise of serum liver enzyme levels ∼7 days later and hepatic failure with subsequent graft loss and death despite high-dose immunosuppressive therapy. Histologic findings showed massive centrolobular hemorrhage and hepatocellular necrosis with reduced inflammation. It is essential to review and accumulate more clinical and laboratory information to better understand this syndrome and to better prevent and treat it. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Defense-in-depth and diversity evaluation to cope with design bases events concurrent with common mode failure in digital plant protection system for KNGR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Lee Cheol; Park, Chan Eok; Jin, Choi Chul; Tae, Seo Jong

2001-01-01

The Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR) has been evolved to adopt an advanced design feature, a digital Plant Protection System (PPS) as an effort of enhancing reliability and safety of the plant. Although the digital PPS can be designed with high reliability, it is considered to be vulnerable to the Common Mode Failure (CMF) in the system software resulting in a total loss of the built-in hardware redundancy. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation has been performed to demonstrate the intrinsic capability of the KNGR design in coping with the design basis events concurrent with CMF in the digital PPS. Instead of the conservative bounding analysis methodology, a best-estimate analysis methodology has been developed and utilized since the design basis events accompanied by CMF in the digital PPS are categorized as beyond design bases events. A variety of diverse means such as Alternate Protection System (APS), process control systems, and timely operator actions have been verified to be effective in mitigating the design basis events with CMF in the digital PPS

Common cause failures of reactor pressure components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankamo, T.

1978-01-01

The common cause failure is defined as a multiple failure event due to a common cause. The existence of common failure causes may ruin the potential advantages of applying redundancy for reliability improvement. Examples relevant to large mechanical components are presented. Preventive measures against common cause failures, such as physical separation, equipment diversity, quality assurance, and feedback from experience are discussed. Despite the large number of potential interdependencies, the analysis of common cause failures can be done within the framework of conventional reliability analysis, utilizing, for example, the method of deriving minimal cut sets from a system fault tree. Tools for the description and evaluation of dependencies between components are discussed: these include the model of conditional failure causes that are common to many components, and evaluation of the reliability of redundant components subjected to a common load. (author)

Determination of the failure probability in the weld region of ap-600 vessel for transient condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wahyono, I.P.

1997-01-01

Failure probability in the weld region of AP-600 vessel was determined for transient condition scenario. The type of transient is increase of the heat removal from primary cooling system due to sudden opening of safety valves or steam relief valves on the secondary cooling system or the steam generator. Temperature and pressure in the vessel was considered as the base of deterministic calculation of the stress intensity factor. Calculation of film coefficient of the convective heat transfers is a function of the transient time and water parameter. Pressure, material temperature, flaw depth and transient time are variables for the stress intensity factor. Failure probability consideration was done by using the above information in regard with the flaw and probability distributions of Octavia II and Marshall. Calculation of the failure probability by probability fracture mechanic simulation is applied on the weld region. Failure of the vessel is assumed as a failure of the weld material with one crack which stress intensity factor applied is higher than the critical stress intensity factor. VISA II code (Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis II) was used for deterministic calculation and simulation. Failure probability of the material is 1.E-5 for Octavia II distribution and 4E-6 for marshall distribution for each transient event postulated. The failure occurred at the 1.7th menit of the initial transient under 12.53 ksi of the pressure

Failure to Follow Written Procedures

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

Most tasks in aviation have a mandated written procedure to be followed specifically under the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 14, Section 43.13(a). However, the incidence of Failure to Follow Procedure (FFP) events continues to be a major iss...

Analysis of failures in concrete containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreno-Gonzalez, A.

1989-09-01

The function of Containment, in an accident event, is to avoid the release of radioactive substances into the surroundings. Containment failure, therefore, is defined as the appearance of leak paths to the external environment. These leak paths may appear either as a result of loss of leaktightness due to degradation of design conditions or structural failure with containment material break. This document is a survey of the state of the art of Containment Failure Analysis. It gives a detailed description of all failure mechanisms, indicating all the possible failure modes and their causes, right from failure resulting from degradation of the materials to structural failure and linear breake failure. Following the description of failure modes, possible failure criteria are identified, with special emphasis on structural failure criteria. These criteria have been obtained not only from existing codes but also from the latest experimental results. A chapter has been dedicated exclusively to failure criteria in conventional structures, for the purpose of evaluating the possibility of application to the case of containment. As the structural behaviour of the containment building is very complex, it is not possible to define failure through a single parameter. It is therefore advisable to define a methodology for containment failure analysis which could be applied to a particular containment. This methodology should include prevailing load and material conditions together with the behaviour of complex conditions such as the liner-anchorage-cracked concrete interaction

Piezoelectrically Initiated Pyrotechnic Igniter

Science.gov (United States)

Quince, Asia; Dutton, Maureen; Hicks, Robert; Burnham, Karen

2013-01-01

This innovation consists of a pyrotechnic initiator and piezoelectric initiation system. The device will be capable of being initiated mechanically; resisting initiation by EMF, RF, and EMI (electromagnetic field, radio frequency, and electromagnetic interference, respectively); and initiating in water environments and space environments. Current devices of this nature are initiated by the mechanical action of a firing pin against a primer. Primers historically are prone to failure. These failures are commonly known as misfires or hang-fires. In many cases, the primer shows the dent where the firing pin struck the primer, but the primer failed to fire. In devices such as "T" handles, which are commonly used to initiate the blowout of canopies, loss of function of the device may result in loss of crew. In devices such as flares or smoke generators, failure can result in failure to spot a downed pilot. The piezoelectrically initiated ignition system consists of a pyrotechnic device that plugs into a mechanical system (activator), which on activation, generates a high-voltage spark. The activator, when released, will strike a stack of electrically linked piezo crystals, generating a high-voltage, low-amperage current that is then conducted to the pyro-initiator. Within the initiator, an electrode releases a spark that passes through a pyrotechnic first-fire mixture, causing it to combust. The combustion of the first-fire initiates a primary pyrotechnic or explosive powder. If used in a "T" handle, the primary would ramp the speed of burn up to the speed of sound, generating a shock wave that would cause a high explosive to go "high order." In a flare or smoke generator, the secondary would produce the heat necessary to ignite the pyrotechnic mixture. The piezo activator subsystem is redundant in that a second stack of crystals would be struck at the same time with the same activation force, doubling the probability of a first strike spark generation. If the first

ICDE project report: collection and analysis of common-cause failures of batteries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-12-01

This report documents a study performed on the set of Common Cause Failure (CCF) events of batteries (BT). the events studied here were derived from the International CCF Data Exchange (ICDE) database, with contributions from organizations from several countries. 50 events in the ICDE database were studied by tabulating the data and observing the trends. The data span a period from 1980 through 2000. The database contains general information about event attributes such as root cause, coupling factor, common cause component group (CCCG) size, and corrective action. The objective of the report was also to develop the failure mechanisms and phenomena involved in the events, their relationship to the root causes, and possibilities for improvement

Competing fatigue failure behaviors of Ni-based superalloy FGH96 at elevated temperature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miao, Guolei [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Yang, Xiaoguang [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Advanced Aero-engine(CICAAE), Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Shi, Duoqi, E-mail: shdq@buaa.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China); Collaborative Innovation Center of Advanced Aero-engine(CICAAE), Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China)

2016-06-21

Fatigue experiments were performed on a polycrystalline P/M processed nickel-based superalloy, FGH96 at 600 °C to investigate competing fatigue failure behaviors of the alloy. The experiments were performed at four levels of stress (from high cycle fatigue to low cycle fatigue) at stress ratio of 0.05. There was large variability in fatigue life at both high and low stresses. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to analyze the failure surfaces. Three types of competing failure modes were observed (surface, sub-surface and internal initiated failures). Crack initiation sites were gradually changed from the surface to the interior with the decreasing of stress level. Roles of microstructures in competing failure mechanism were analyzed. There were six kinds of fatigue crack initiation modes: (1) surface inclusion initiated; (2) surface facet initiated; (3) sub-surface inclusion initiated; (4) sub-surface facet initiated; (5) internal inclusion initiated; (6) internal facet initiated. Inclusions at surface were the life-limiting microstructures at higher stress levels. The probability of occurrence of inclusions initiated is gradually reduced with decreasing of stress level, simultaneously the probability of occurrence of facets initiated is increasing. The existence of the inclusions resulted in large life variability at higher stress levels, while heterogeneity of material caused by random combinations of grains was the main cause of fatigue variability at lower stress levels.

Competing fatigue failure behaviors of Ni-based superalloy FGH96 at elevated temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miao, Guolei; Yang, Xiaoguang; Shi, Duoqi

2016-01-01

Fatigue experiments were performed on a polycrystalline P/M processed nickel-based superalloy, FGH96 at 600 °C to investigate competing fatigue failure behaviors of the alloy. The experiments were performed at four levels of stress (from high cycle fatigue to low cycle fatigue) at stress ratio of 0.05. There was large variability in fatigue life at both high and low stresses. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to analyze the failure surfaces. Three types of competing failure modes were observed (surface, sub-surface and internal initiated failures). Crack initiation sites were gradually changed from the surface to the interior with the decreasing of stress level. Roles of microstructures in competing failure mechanism were analyzed. There were six kinds of fatigue crack initiation modes: (1) surface inclusion initiated; (2) surface facet initiated; (3) sub-surface inclusion initiated; (4) sub-surface facet initiated; (5) internal inclusion initiated; (6) internal facet initiated. Inclusions at surface were the life-limiting microstructures at higher stress levels. The probability of occurrence of inclusions initiated is gradually reduced with decreasing of stress level, simultaneously the probability of occurrence of facets initiated is increasing. The existence of the inclusions resulted in large life variability at higher stress levels, while heterogeneity of material caused by random combinations of grains was the main cause of fatigue variability at lower stress levels.

Early versus delayed initiation of antiretroviral therapy for Indian HIV-Infected individuals with tuberculosis on antituberculosis treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinha, Sanjeev; Shekhar, Rahul C; Singh, Gurjeet; Shah, Nipam; Ahmad, Hafiz; Kumar, Narendra; Sharma, Surendra K; Samantaray, J C; Ranjan, Sanjai; Ekka, Meera; Sreenivas, Vishnu; Mitsuyasu, Ronald T

2012-07-31

For antiretroviral therapy (ART) naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults suffering from tuberculosis (TB), there is uncertainty about the optimal time to initiate highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) after starting antituberculosis treatment (ATT), in order to minimize mortality, HIV disease progression, and adverse events. In a randomized, open label trial at All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India, eligible HIV positive individuals with a diagnosis of TB were randomly assigned to receive HAART after 2-4 or 8-12 weeks of starting ATT, and were followed for 12 months after HAART initiation. Participants received directly observed therapy short course (DOTS) for TB, and an antiretroviral regimen comprising stavudine or zidovudine, lamivudine, and efavirenz. Primary end points were death from any cause, and progression of HIV disease marked by failure of ART. A total of 150 patients with HIV and TB were initiated on HAART: 88 received it after 2-4 weeks (early ART) and 62 after 8-12 weeks (delayed ART) of starting ATT. There was no significant difference in mortality between the groups after the introduction of HAART. However, incidence of ART failure was 31% in delayed versus 16% in early ART arm (p = 0.045). Kaplan Meier disease progression free survival at 12 months was 79% for early versus 64% for the delayed ART arm (p = 0.05). Rates of adverse events were similar. Early initiation of HAART for patients with HIV and TB significantly decreases incidence of HIV disease progression and has good tolerability. CTRI/2011/12/002260.

Correlation model to analyze dependent failures for probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dezfuli, H.

1985-01-01

A methodology is formulated to study the dependent (correlated) failures of various abnormal events in nuclear power plants. This methodology uses correlation analysis is a means for predicting and quantifying the dependent failures. Appropriate techniques are also developed to incorporate the dependent failure in quantifying fault trees and accident sequences. The uncertainty associated with each estimation in all of the developed techniques is addressed and quantified. To identify the relative importance of the degree of dependency (correlation) among events and to incorporate these dependencies in the quantification phase of PRA, the interdependency between a pair of events in expressed with the aid of the correlation coefficient. For the purpose of demonstrating the methodology, the data base used in the Accident Sequence Precursor Study (ASP) was adopted and simulated to obtain distributions for the correlation coefficients. A computer program entitled Correlation Coefficient Generator (CCG) was developed to generate a distribution for each correlation coefficient. The method of bootstrap technique was employed in the CCG computer code to determine confidence limits of the estimated correlation coefficients. A second computer program designated CORRELATE was also developed to obtain probability intervals for both fault trees and accident sequences with statistically correlated failure data

Periodontitis in Chronic Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Fröhlich, Hanna; Herrmann, Kristina; Franke, Jennifer; Karimi, Alamara; Täger, Tobias; Cebola, Rita; Katus, Hugo A; Zugck, Christian; Frankenstein, Lutz

2016-08-01

Periodontal disease has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. The purpose of our study was to investigate whether a correlation between periodontitis and chronic heart failure exists, as well as the nature of the underlying cause. We enrolled 71 patients (mean age, 54 ± 13 yr; 56 men) who had stable chronic heart failure; all underwent complete cardiologic and dental evaluations. The periodontal screening index was used to quantify the degree of periodontal disease. We compared the findings to those in the general population with use of data from the 4th German Dental Health Survey. Gingivitis, moderate periodontitis, and severe periodontitis were present in 17 (24%), 17 (24%), and 37 (52%) patients, respectively. Severe periodontitis was more prevalent among chronic heart failure patients than in the general population. In contrast, moderate periodontitis was more prevalent in the general population (P periodontal disease was not associated with the cause of chronic heart failure or the severity of heart failure symptoms. Six-minute walking distance was the only independent predictor of severe periodontitis. Periodontal disease is highly prevalent in chronic heart failure patients regardless of the cause of heart failure. Prospective trials are warranted to clarify the causal relationship between both diseases.

Seismology-based early identification of dam-formation landquake events.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Wei-An; Zhao, Li; Chen, Su-Chin; Wu, Yih-Min; Chen, Chi-Hsuan; Huang, Hsin-Hua

2016-01-12

Flooding resulting from the bursting of dams formed by landquake events such as rock avalanches, landslides and debris flows can lead to serious bank erosion and inundation of populated areas near rivers. Seismic waves can be generated by landquake events which can be described as time-dependent forces (unloading/reloading cycles) acting on the Earth. In this study, we conduct inversions of long-period (LP, period ≥20 s) waveforms for the landquake force histories (LFHs) of ten events, which provide quantitative characterization of the initiation, propagation and termination stages of the slope failures. When the results obtained from LP waveforms are analyzed together with high-frequency (HF, 1-3 Hz) seismic signals, we find a relatively strong late-arriving seismic phase (dubbed Dam-forming phase or D-phase) recorded clearly in the HF waveforms at the closest stations, which potentially marks the time when the collapsed masses sliding into river and perhaps even impacting the topographic barrier on the opposite bank. Consequently, our approach to analyzing the LP and HF waveforms developed in this study has a high potential for identifying five dam-forming landquake events (DFLEs) in near real-time using broadband seismic records, which can provide timely warnings of the impending floods to downstream residents.

Effectiveness of infliximab after adalimumab failure in Crohn's disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaparro, María; Andreu, Montserrat; Barreiro-de Acosta, Manuel; García-Planella, Esther; Ricart, Elena; Domènech, Eugeni; Esteve, María; Merino, Olga; Nos, Pilar; Peñalva, Mireia; Gisbert, Javier P

2012-10-07

To evaluate the effectiveness of infliximab as a second-line therapy in Crohn's disease patients after adalimumab failure. A historical cohort study in a community-based gastroenterology practice evaluated Crohn's disease patients treated with infliximab (induction plus maintenance) after adalimumab failure. Patients were identified using a large Spanish database (ENEIDA). We included 15 Crohn's disease patients who received infliximab after adalimumab failure. Five patients discontinued adalimumab due to loss of response, 3 due to adverse events and 7 due to partial response. After infliximab therapy was started, all patients who had interrupted adalimumab due to loss of efficacy regained response. All patients who discontinued adalimumab due to adverse events responded to infliximab and maintained this response; one of these patients had an uneventful course on infliximab, but 2 developed adverse events. None of the 7 patients who interrupted adalimumab due to partial response reached remission with infliximab. Switching from adalimumab to infliximab may be useful in patients who develop adverse effects or loss of response, however, the benefit of infliximab in primary nonresponders was not established.

Importance of the time of initiation of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists on risk of mortality in patients with heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Rosario; Crupi, Nicola; Coppi, Francesca; Monopoli, Daniel; Sgura, Fabio

2015-03-01

Several studies have definitively shown the benefit of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) in patients with heart failure (HF). However, very few prior studies examined the relationship between the timing of initiation of MRAs and prognosis. In addition, on this topic, there is no information regarding the specific population of patients suffering a first episode of decompensated congestive HF. We studied a homogenous cohort of patients discharged alive from our hospital after a first episode of decompensated congestive HF, in order to clarify the association between time of aldosterone receptor antagonist (ARA) initiation (within the first 90 days after hospital discharge) and mortality. Our population was composed of a series of consecutive patients. All-cause mortality was compared between patients who initiated MRAs at discharge (early group) and those who initiated MRAs one month later and up to 90 days after discharge (delayed group). We used prescription time distribution matching to control for survival difference between groups. The early and delayed groups consisted of 365 and 320 patients, respectively. During the one-year follow-up, a significant difference in mortality was demonstrated between groups. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for early versus delayed initiation were 1.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 2.84) at six months, and 1.93 (95% CI 1.18 to 3.14) at one year. Delay of MRA initiation up to 30 to 90 days after discharge implies a significant increase in mortality compared with MRA initiation at discharge, after a first episode of decompensate congestive HF. © The Author(s) 2013.

Acute liver failure and acute kidney injury: Definitions, prognosis, and outcome

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Włodzimirow, K.A.

2013-01-01

The objective of this thesis was to investigate definitions, prognostic indicators and their association with adverse events, mainly mortality for acute liver failure (ALF), acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and acute kidney injury (AKI).

A human reliability analysis (HRA) method for identifying and assessing the error of commission (EOC) from a diagnosis failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jae Whan; Jung, Won Dea; Park, Jin Yun; Kang, Dae Il

2005-01-01

The study deals with a method for systematically identifying and assessing the EOC events that might be caused from a diagnosis failure or misdiagnosis of the expected events in accident scenarios of nuclear power plants. The method for EOC identification and assessment consists of three steps: analysis of the potential for a diagnosis failure (or misdiagnosis), identification of the EOC events from the diagnosis failure, quantitative assessment of the identified EOC events. As a tool for analysing a diagnosis failure, the MisDiagnosis Tree Analysis (MDTA) technique is proposed with the taxonomy of misdiagnosis causes. Also, the guidance on the identification of EOC events and the classification system and data are given for quantitiative assessment. As an applicaton of the proposed method, the EOCs identification and assessment for Younggwang 3 and 4 plants and their impact on the plant risk were performed. As the result, six events or event sequences were considered for diagnosis failures and about 20 new Human Failure Events (HFEs) involving EOCs were identified. According to the assessment of the risk impact of the identified HFEs, they increase the CDF by 11.4 % of the current CDF value, which corresponds to 10.2 % of the new CDF. The small loss of coolant accident (SLOCA) turned out to be a major contributor to the increase of CDF resulting in 9.2 % increaseof the current CDF.

Letter report seismic shutdown system failure mode and effect analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

KECK, R.D.

1999-01-01

The Supply Ventilation System Seismic Shutdown ensures that the 234-52 building supply fans, the dry air process fans and vertical development calciner are shutdown following a seismic event. This evaluates the failure modes and determines the effects of the failure modes

A fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purba, Julwan Hendry

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic event reliabilities. • It implements the concepts of failure possibilities and fuzzy sets. • Experts evaluate basic event failure possibilities using qualitative words. • Triangular fuzzy numbers mathematically represent qualitative failure possibilities. • It is a very good alternative for conventional reliability approach. - Abstract: Fault tree analysis has been widely utilized as a tool for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment. This analysis can be completed only if all basic events of the system fault tree have their quantitative failure rates or failure probabilities. However, it is difficult to obtain those failure data due to insufficient data, environment changing or new components. This study proposes a fuzzy-based reliability approach to evaluate basic events of system fault trees whose failure precise probability distributions of their lifetime to failures are not available. It applies the concept of failure possibilities to qualitatively evaluate basic events and the concept of fuzzy sets to quantitatively represent the corresponding failure possibilities. To demonstrate the feasibility and the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the actual basic event failure probabilities collected from the operational experiences of the David–Besse design of the Babcock and Wilcox reactor protection system fault tree are used to benchmark the failure probabilities generated by the proposed approach. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy-based reliability approach arises as a suitable alternative for the conventional probabilistic reliability approach when basic events do not have the corresponding quantitative historical failure data for determining their reliability characteristics. Hence, it overcomes the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis for nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment