Inflation, economic policy, and the inner city
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Curtis, L.A.
1981-07-01
This article describes the greater impact of inflation among the poor and minorities in American inner cities than among other population groups. Surveys show, however, that minorities are even more concerned over unemployment and racial discrimination than over inflation. There are indications that, especially today, crime and potential group disorder are affected by or influence inflation, unemployment, and discrimination in the inner city. With these interrelated factors in mind, present federal economic policy is reviewed, critiqued, and interpreted as basically consistent with Keynesian economic theory. Modifications of and alternatives to present policy are offered that fit both inner-city needs and the concerns of the rest of American society. These policies include targeted private sector neighborhood development and self-help, private sector productivity increases through workplace democracy, private-public sector codetermination of investment, private-public sector job guarantees, and public anti-inflation policy carefully targeted at the basic necessities of energy, food, housing, and health care - which have a disproportionate effect on inflation in the inner city, as well as the overall economy. Coalitions are suggested that could politically implement such policies.
PERSPECTIVES OF INFLATION TARGETING, IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CONTEXT
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COROIU SORINA IOANA
2015-04-01
Full Text Available In the context of economic crisis, monetary policy makers are facing a number of challenges, including the selection and implementation of the best monetary policy. In this paper, we want to see if inflation targeting is or is not a solution to exit the economic crisis. If the answer is positive, then what would be the optimal level of inflation? Many central banks target an inflation rate of 2%. In this paper we intend to show that, in certain circumstances, a very low level of inflation can significantly reduce the stabilizing effects of monetary policy. A slightly higher value of inflation targeting would reduce the constraints on monetary policy, caused by the appearance of liquidity trap. The risk for the interest rates of monetary policy to achieve zero level is related to the central banks’ choise of the appropriate inflation target. We believe that an increase in the inflation target of 2% to 4% would ease monetary policy constraints arising from the liquidity trap problem. If inflation targeting is not a solution to exit the crisis, then are there other strategies that would be a better alternative? Following this analysis, no obvious alternatives were identified, so far, there is no clear reason for that to abandon inflation targeting.
The economic policy options and their connection with inflation and unemployment
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Bogna Kopeć
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Economic system after 1990 had many fluctuations. This article applies to two essential phenomena in a free market economy: inflation and unemployment. This article applies to changes in the process of inflation and fluctuations in the unemployment rate under different economic policy options. Economic policies can affect the development of the inflation and unemployment. It includes interest rates and budget deficits. Methodology of model is based on a pendulum. Economic policy has been designated as a synthetic indicator of the resultant two policies - monetary and fiscal policies. With the help of the pendulum model has been established that the character had run monetary and fiscal policy, and how developed as economic policy. By the dominance of one of the policy options is understood that during cycles level inflation or the deficit fluctuated strongly to economic stabilization. One of the stages of the study was to analyze the monetary policy and assess whether there is a link between the evolution of interest rates and the evolution of the inflation rate. In a similar way, fiscal policy was analyzed. This article attempts to determine whether the conduct of economic policy was correct, and has had an impact on the economic situation.
Analyzing Inflation and Its Control: A Resource Guide. Economics-Political Science Series.
Salemi, Michael K.; Leak, Sarah
Background information for teachers on inflation and self-contained learning activities to help students view inflation from both economic and political perspectives are provided. The introduction contains economics and political science frameworks for analyzing policy issues. How to integrate economics and political science is also discussed.…
TESTING NONLINEAR INFLATION CONVERGENCE FOR THE CENTRAL AFRICAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY COMMUNITY
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Emmanuel Anoruo
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper uses nonlinear unit root testing procedures to examine the issue of inflation convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC member states including Cameron, Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and the Republic of Congo. The results from nonlinear STAR unit root tests suggest that inflation differentials for the sample countries are nonlinear and mean reverting processes. These results provide evidence of inflation convergence among countries within CEMAC. The finding of inflation convergence indicates the feasibility of a common monetary policy and/or inflation targeting regime within CEMAC.
A note on inflation targeting and economic growth in Brazil
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Gilberto Libânio
2010-03-01
Full Text Available This paper analyzes the relation between monetary policy and economic performance in Brazil during the period 1999-2006. In particular, it discusses the growth effects of the inflation targeting regime through its effects on aggregate demand. It is argued that monetary policy under IT reacts in a procyclical and asymmetric way to fluctuations in economic activity (too "tight" during recessions, not so "loose" during expansions. Such pattern may generate a downward bias in aggregate demand, with negative real effects on output growth and employment. Our results suggest that monetary policy has been procyclical and asymmetrical in Brazil under inflation targeting. The main economic policy implication of this study is that central banks should consider more seriously the real effects of monetary policy on output and employment.
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Alex Ehimare OMANKHANLEN
2011-03-01
Full Text Available This study is on the effect of exchange rate and inflation on foreign direct investment and its relationship with economic growth. Its main objective is to find the effect of inflation and exchange rate and the bidirectional influences between FDI and economic growth in Nigeria. A thirty year period was studied. A linear regression analysis was used on the thirty year data to determine the relationship between inflation, exchange rate, FDI inflows and economic growth. The study reveals that FDI follow economic growth occasioned by trade openness which saw the entry of some major companies especially the telecommunication companies, while Inflation has no effect on FDI. However exchange rate has effect on FDI.
Short-Run and Long-Run Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2014-10-02
Oct 2, 2014 ... panel time evidence and found negative effects of inflation on output. ... Ghana's economic growth performance as in most developing countries has been ...... Financial liberalization, financial development and growth in su-.
The Impact of Unemployment and inflation on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981–2014
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Abdulsalam S. Ademola
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Purpose - To investigate and determine the effects of unemployment and inflation on economic performance in Nigeria within the specified period as in the title and to establish the relationship between unemployment and inflation with Real Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach - Ordinary Least Square (OLS technique was adopted with various diagnostic test to determine how fit are the data for the analysis. Findings - The result of Diagnostic test indicates that data for the analysis are stationary at level and there are 2 cointegrating equation implying that there exist long-run relationship between RGDP, Unemployment and inflation. The results indicated that unemployment and inflation are positively related to economic growth. Research limitations/implications - The study uses only OLS and Diagnostic to carried out the analysis and it only cover the period from 1981 to 2014. Originality/value - The originality of this study lies on findings and interpretation of the result of regression analysis. The positive relationship between unemployment, inflation and RGDP indicates that Nigeria RGDP is driven by oil revenue that employs very limited highly skilled labour and the price of output of crude oil is determined externally which may not response as expected to growth of output in the country.
Euro area Inflation as a Predictor of National Inflation Rates
Antonella Cavallo; Antonio Ribba
2013-01-01
The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro-area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in th...
Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Baxa, Jaromír; Plašil, M.; Vašíček, B.
2017-01-01
Roč. 17, č. 1 (2017), s. 1-42 ISSN 1935-1690 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : dynamic model averaging * inflation dynamics * Phillips curve Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 0.043, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/baxa-0465219.pdf
Assessing inflation persistence: micro evidence on an inflation targeting economy
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Babecký, Jan; Coricelli, F.; Horváth, R.
-, č. 353 (2008), s. 1-37 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation dynamics * persistence * inflation targeting Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp353.pdf
Inflation targeting and economic performance: The case of Mexico
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Carrasco Carlos A.
2011-01-01
Full Text Available In the paper we analyze the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT in Mexico. The objective is to evaluate the impact of the implementation of inflation targeting and full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT on the level and the variability of the inflation and the output in the Mexican economy. We conclude that inflation rates had been reduced in Mexico before the introduction of IT and FFIT. In our opinion, the structural reforms, including the Banxico reforms, are the main determinants of the decrease in inflation and its variability. The main impact of IT would have been the lock-in of inflation expectations around a low rate of inflation.
How useful are leading indicators of inflation?
C. Alan Garner
1995-01-01
Many economists expect inflation to rise in 1995. These expectations are based on various approaches to forecasting inflation. One approach is based on the standard economic theory that inflation rises when slack is eliminated from the economy and production exceeds capacity constraints. According to this view, measures of economic slack such as unemployment and capacity utilization provide useful information about the inflation outlook. But the relationship between slack and inflation is com...
Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Baxa, Jaromír; Plašil, M.; Vašíček, B.
2013-01-01
Roč. 11, č. 1 (2013), s. 2-5 ISSN 1803-7089 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Inflation Dynamics * Inflation Targeting? Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/baxa-0395372.pdf
Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Revisited: Evidence from Egypt
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Mesbah Fathy Sharaf
2015-07-01
Full Text Available The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence on the link between the two is sparse in the case of Egypt. This paper investigates the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974–April 2015. To endogenously control for any potential structural breaks in the inflation time series, Zivot and Andrews (2002 and Clemente–Montanes–Reyes (1998 unit root tests are used. The inflation–inflation uncertainty relation is modeled by the standard two-step approach as well as simultaneously using various versions of the GARCH-M model to control for any potential feedback effects. The analyses explicitly control for the effect of the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program (ERSAP undertaken by the Egyptian government in the early 1990s, which affected inflation rate and its associated volatility. Results show a high degree of inflation–volatility persistence in the response to inflationary shocks. Granger-causality test along with symmetric and asymmetric GARCH-M models indicate a statistically significant bi-directional positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, supporting both the Friedman–Ball and the Cukierman–Meltzer hypotheses. The findings are robust to the various estimation methods and model specifications. The findings of this paper support the view of adopting inflation-targeting policy in Egypt, after fulfilling its preconditions, to reduce the welfare cost of inflation and its related uncertainties. Monetary authorities in Egypt should enhance the credibility of monetary policy and attempt to reduce inflation uncertainty, which will help lower inflation rates.
1984-01-01
Helicopter, Helicopter Cost Growth, Historical Cost, Historical Inflation R~ates, Indexes, Inflation ( Economic ), Methodology, Model, , Prices, Procurement...Producer Price Index and hourly: wace data were suzplied by the Kansas City Regional office of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The...most closely related commodities. To minimize the effect from related commodities which have relatively little economic impact, each price per pound
Macroeconomic susceptibility, inflation, and aggregate supply
Hawkins, Raymond J.
2017-03-01
We unify aggregate-supply dynamics as a time-dependent susceptibility-mediated relationship between inflation and aggregate economic output. In addition to representing well various observations of inflation-output dynamics this parsimonious formalism provides a straightforward derivation of popular representations of aggregate-supply dynamics and a natural basis for economic-agent expectations as an element of inflation formation. Our formalism also illuminates questions of causality and time-correlation that challenge central banks for whom aggregate-supply dynamics is a key constraint in their goal of achieving macroeconomic stability.
Assessing inflation persistence: micro evidence on an inflation targeting economy
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Babecký, Jan; Coricelli, F.; Horváth, R.
2009-01-01
Roč. 59, č. 2 (2009), s. 102-127 ISSN 0015-1920 Grant - others:Česká národní banka(CZ) E5/05 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation dynamics * persistence * inflation targeting Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.264, year: 2009 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1153_babeck%C3%BD_horv%C3%A1th_coricelli.pdf
Inflation differentials among Czech households
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Janský, Petr; Hait, Pavel
2016-01-01
Roč. 25, č. 1 (2016), s. 71-84 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) TD020188 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : households * inflation * inflation differentials Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.710, year: 2016
Estimating the Threshold Level of Inflation for Thailand
Jiranyakul, Komain
2017-01-01
Abstract. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Thailand using annual dataset during 1990 and 2015. The threshold model is estimated for different levels of threshold inflation rate. The results suggest that the threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slow growth is estimated at 3 percent. The negative relationship between inflation and growth is apparent above this threshold level of inflation. In other words, the inflation rat...
The Effect of Economic Inflation on Local Public Library Support in Kentucky, 1967-1976.
Smith, Robert C.
This study was developed on the hypothesis that economic inflation reduced the purchasing power of local support for public libraries from 1967 through fiscal 1976. The total local support for public libraries in each county in each year of the study was adjusted from the reported nominal amount to the relative Consumer Price Index value of 1967…
Coopersmith, Michael; Gambardella, Pascal J.
2016-01-01
This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between the difference of the nominal interest rate and its inflation adjusted value to eliminate the inflation rate and obtain a delay differential equation. We provide computer simulated solutions for this equation over regimes of interest. This paper could be of ...
IAS15 inflation adjustments and EVA: empirical evidence from a highly variable inflation regime
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Pierre Erasmus
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Inflation can have a pronounced effect on the financial performance of a firm. This study makes inflation adjustments to a firm’s cost of sales, depreciation, level of gearing and assets in line with International Accounting Standard 15 (IAS15 in order to calculate an inflation-adjusted version of the economic value added (EVA measure. The study was conducted using data from South African industrial firms during a period characterised by highly variable inflation levels (1991-2005. The results indicate that during this period there were significant differences between the nominal and real values of the firms’ EVAs
Inflation Metaphor in the TIME Magazine Corpus
Hu, Chunyu; Liu, Huijie
2016-01-01
A historical perspective on economy metaphor can shed new lights on economic thoughts. Based on the TIME Magazine Corpus (TMC), this paper investigates inflation metaphor over 83 years and compares findings against the economic data over the relatively corresponding period. The results show how inflation, an abstract concept and a normal economic…
Coopersmith, Michael
2011-01-01
A relation between interest rates and inflation is presented using a two component economic model and a simple general principle. Preliminary results indicate a remarkable similarity to classical economic theories, in particular that of Wicksell.
Inflation in the Costs of Building Aircraft Carriers
2016-04-01
amount the Navy could spend on the second and following ships in the Ford class. That amount could be adjusted to account for economic inflation and...other factors. (The legislation did not clearly define “economic inflation ,” but the Navy has interpreted it to mean increases in the prices of...Actual inflation in the prices of labor and materials was the most important contributor to the rise in the cost cap, accounting for $2.5 billion of the
Determinant and impacts of dynamic inflation in Ethiopia
Biresaw, Temesgen Tezera
2014-01-01
This thesis uses quarterly data for the period 1998-2010 to investigate the determinant and impacts of dynamic inflation in Ethiopia. By using Granger causality model approach four testable hypotheses are investigated: (1) does the money supply growth Granger-cause inflation? (2) Does currency devaluation Granger cause inflation? (3) Does inflation affect economic growth? And (4) Does oil price Granger cause of inflation? The empirical results suggest that there existed a bi-directional ...
Inflation Rate Modelling in Indonesia
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Rezzy Eko Caraka
2016-10-01
Full Text Available The purposes of this research were to analyse: (i Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia with parametric regression. (ii Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia using non-parametric regression spline multivariable (iii Determining the best model the inflation rate in Indonesia (iv Explaining the relationship inflation model parametric and non-parametric regression spline multivariable. Based on the analysis using the two methods mentioned the coefficient of determination (R2 in parametric regression of 65.1% while non-parametric amounted to 99.39%. To begin with, the factor of money supply or money stock, crude oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is significant on the rate of inflation. The stability of inflation is essential to support sustainable economic development and improve people's welfare. In conclusion, unstable inflation will complicate business planning business activities, both in production and investment activities as well as in the pricing of goods and services produced.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v15i2.3260
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Andrei BIRMAN
2011-12-01
Full Text Available This study briefly presents theoretical aspects related to the relationship between inflation and economic growth and provides an empirical study for the Romanian economy, for the period 2000 – 2011. The econometric methodology used is that of vector auto-regressions.The results showed that a sudden increase in the change of the output gap (i.e. a shock to the growth rate of the output gap does not determine an increase in CPI. Hence, the hypothesis of the existence of a speed limit effect in Romania is rejected. In concrete terms, this means that the monetary authorities should not fear for eventual inflationary pressures when sudden increases of demand arise, if the output gap is negative (the potential output is higher that the effective output. The National Bank of Romania may avoid, therefore, taking some monetary policy decisions meant to temper the rise in inflation (as would have been the case if a speed limit effect was present but which would have induced unnecessary volatility into the output. However, the study indicates that National Bank of Romania should communicate to the public the state of the economy in order to timely anchor the inflation expectations. This is a very important aspect, since the inflation expectations firmly react to a shock into the growth rate of the output gap, i.e. to a strong increase in the effective output.The study also showed a positive response of the growth rate of the output gap to a positive shock in inflation, with a maximum effect after three quarters. This shows that the inflation was mainly driven by demand factors in the analysed period, with the consumers increasing current consumption in order to avoid the future higher prices and with the economic agents increasing the supply such as to maximise the unitary profits. Also, this result shows a rather inelastic demand or a possible captivity of consumers in the face of producers.
MONETARY POLICY AND THE INFLATION TARGETING STRATEGY
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Zina V. MARCU căs. CIORAN
2013-10-01
Full Text Available The monetary policy is a basic component of the economic policy. It has an important role in fulfilling the main objectives of the economic politics, which is: price stability, insurance of a balanced economic raise, full occupancy of human resources and the external payment balance stability insurance. Inflation is a negative thing affecting the economy both on short and long term. On short term, it erodes the purchasing power of currency and thus, it mostly affects the retirees and those with fixed incomes. On long term, inflation discourages the investments and the economic growth. The purpose of this paper consists in the revision and presentation of the specialized literature concerning the impact the monetary policy has on the main macro-economical variables, especially on inflation, in terms of influence of the monetary authority decision on economic and financial conjunction. It was found that the monetary authorities of any country can evaluate exactly the rhythm and the effects of their actions on the economy by understanding the mechanisms which the monetary policy uses to influence the economy.
Viorica, Daniela; Jemna, Danut; Pintilescu, Carmen; Asandului, Mircea
2014-01-01
The objective of this paper is to verify the hypotheses presented in the literature on the causal relationship between inflation and its uncertainty, for the newest EU countries. To ensure the robustness of the results, in the study four models for inflation uncertainty are estimated in parallel: ARCH (1), GARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1,1) and PARCH (1,1,1). The Granger method is used to test the causality between two variables. The working hypothesis is that groups of countries with a similar political and economic background in 1990 and are likely to be characterized by the same causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Empirical results partially confirm this hypothesis. C22, E31, E37.
Tourism Led-Inflation: A case of Malaysia
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Shaari M. S.
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The importance of the tourism industry has prevailed among developed and even developing countries. It has been perceived to be an important contribution to economic growth. However, in the proliferation of studies on inflation, information on the extent to which tourism industry able to influence inflation, is still sparse. Therefore, this study embarks on investigating tourism as a potential factor towards inflation. Data on consumer price index and the number of tourist arrival from 1986 until 2014 are used in the analysis. This study adopts a quantitative approach employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL approach. Several controlled variables such as money supply, economic growth, government expenditure, and interest rate are also included. The results suggest that the tourism industry plays an important role in determining inflation in both short-and long-runs. Therefore, governments should take proactive measures in ascertaining that any expansion of the tourism industry can avert inflation.
Inflation targeting and core inflation
Julie Smith
2005-01-01
This paper examines the interaction of core inflation and inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime. Interest in core inflation has grown because of inflation targeting. Core inflation is defined in numerous ways giving rise to many potential measures; this paper defines core inflation as the best forecaster of inflation. A cross-country study finds before the start of inflation targeting, but not after, core inflation differs between non-inflation targeters and inflation targeters. Thr...
Core Inflation Measure and Its Effect on Economic Growth and Employment in Tunisia
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Maha Kalai
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to present a measure for the core inflation in Tunisia. This measure consists in a six-variable structural vector autoregression model covering the period 1975Q1-2014Q4. Our results show that the observed inflation rate exceeds the core inflation when demand rises and conversely when there is a low growth. This seems to be reasonable as core inflation has a deterministic tendency and, therefore, the monetary impulse largely accounts for the evolution of inflation. Our findings also support the idea that there is a weak positive correlation between the inflation rate and the industrial production index in the short run. This core inflation is also observed to have a weak effect on unemployment over the short and long runs. Thus, this type of inflation should be taken into account as an important element for the determination of a targeted inflation rate and for future predictions and decisions of the monetary authorities.
MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY
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Antoni Antoni
2011-09-01
Full Text Available The danger of inflation has been the focus of many central banks. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and inflation targeting in Malaysia with a backward-looking aggregate supply and demand analysis. The manage floating regime applied in the country has an important role in achieving a stable exchange rate against its major trading partners. It also analyzes the policy of maintaining the soundness of interest rate to perceive inflation targeting to increase its economic growth. Using 1991-2004 data and a traditional structural econometric model, it shows that output gap is important in forecasting a domestic inflation rate by controlling the interest rate. Keywords: Inflation targeting, monetary economics, structural econometric modelJEL classification numbers: E3, E52
Impact of inflation on the macroeconomic indicators in transition economies
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Ranković Marko
2012-06-01
Full Text Available This paper is dealing with treats of inflation in times of world financial turmoil. It examines how inflation is impacting macroeconomic factors. Is there relationship and how strong it is between inflation and economic growth, unemployment rate and other selected economic indicators? Motivated by these questions, this paper examines the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic indicators: real GDP annual growth rate, privatization revenues, as part of the GDP, level of investments, unemployment rate and share of assets of foreign banks in domestic bank system by using data for 13 transition economies over the period 1993-2008. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic indicators is significantly and strongly negative, observed for the region. However, for small number countries in transition there is no direct significant relationship between inflation, but indirect relationship has been showed.
Single-superfield helical-phase inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ketov, Sergei V., E-mail: ketov@tmu.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Minami-ohsawa 1-1, Hachioji-shi, Tokyo 192-0397 (Japan); Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (IPMU), The University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8568 (Japan); Institute of Physics and Technology, Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Ave., Tomsk 634050 (Russian Federation); Terada, Takahiro, E-mail: takahiro@hep-th.phys.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), 22607 Hamburg (Germany)
2016-01-10
Large-field inflation in supergravity requires the approximate global symmetry needed to protect flatness of the scalar potential. In helical-phase inflation, the U(1) symmetry of the Kähler potential is assumed, the phase part of the complex scalar of a chiral superfield plays the role of inflaton, and the radial part is strongly stabilized. The original model of helical phase inflation, proposed by Li, Li and Nanopoulos (LLN), employs an extra (stabilizer) superfield. We propose a more economical new class of the helical phase inflationary models without a stabilizer superfield. As the specific examples, the quadratic, the natural, and the Starobinsky-type inflationary models are studied in our approach.
Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Turkey
dogru, bulent
2014-01-01
Abstract: In this study, the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Granger causality tests with annual inflation series covering the time period 1923 to 2012 for Turkish Economy. Inflation uncertainty is measured by Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model. Econometric findings suggest that although in long run the Friedman's hypothesis that high inflation increases inflation ...
Unemployment and inflation dynamics prior to the economic downturn of 2007-2008.
Guastello, Stephen J; Myers, Adam
2009-10-01
This article revisits a long-standing theoretical issue as to whether a "natural rate" of unemployment exists in the sense of an exogenously driven fixed-point Walrasian equilibrium or attractor, or whether more complex dynamics such as hysteresis or chaos characterize an endogenous dynamical process instead. The same questions are posed regarding a possible natural rate of inflation along with an investigation of the actual relationship between inflation and unemployment for which extent theories differ. Time series of unemployment and inflation for US data - were analyzed using the exponential model series and nonlinear regression for capturing Lyapunov exponents and transfer effects from other variables. The best explanation for unemployment was that it is a chaotic variable that is driven in part by inflation. The best explanation for inflation is that it is also a chaotic variable driven in part by unemployment and the prices of treasury bills. Estimates of attractors' epicenters were calculated in lieu of classical natural rates.
Inflation and Wheat Prices in Pakistan: 1990-2010
MUHAMMAD IRFAN JAVAID ATTARI
2012-01-01
This study is going to examine the relationship among consumer price index (CPI), economic performance, and wheat support prices in order to determine the level of inflation in case of Pakistan. The analysis is made on the monthly time series data from January-1990 to December-2010. The CPI is used as an inflation indicator by taking the percentage change; the GDP is used as the growth variable for measuring economic performance. The ARDL technique had been used to investigate such relationsh...
Deriving inflation forecasts from government bond prices
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Kožul Nataša
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In financial research and practice, it is widely accepted that nominal interest rates derived from the prices of various financial products of different maturities comprise of corresponding real interest rates and inflation. While extensive research has been conducted on the relationship between these three variables, estimation of their levels is still largely based on the industry surveys and market data. As this information only indicates the current expectations of interest rate and inflation movements over time, a number of caveats should be noted when interpreting such measures. In the US and the UK, where the government bond markets are the largest and most active, a comparative analysis between conventional government bonds and those whose yield is linked to inflation provides a measure of inflation expectations. However, as such analyses implicitly assume that investment in government bonds is virtually risk free, it is questionable whether the derived estimates are of any value in current economic conditions. Moreover, this approach cannot be generalized to other countries, where number of traded products from which any relationship between interest rates and inflation can be determined is limited and different economic conditions prevail. Thus, this paper aims to present an overview of the methodologies used to forecast inflation rates from government bond prices, drawing attention to the key assumptions and limitations of these approaches. The goal is to ascertain their accuracy, and thus their value in determining the real yields of various interest rate-linked products.
Estimation of Inflationary Expectations and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Strategy
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Amalia CRISTESCU
2011-02-01
Full Text Available The credibility and accountability of a central bank, acting in an inflation targeting regime, are essential because they allow a sustainable anchoring of the inflationary anticipation of economic agents. Their decisions and behavior will increasingly be grounded on information provided by the central bank, especially if it shows transparency in the process of communicating with the public. Thus, inflationary anticipations are one of the most important channels through which the monetary policy affects the economic activity. They are crucial in the formation of the consumer prices among producers and traders, especially since it is relatively expensive for the economic agents to adjust their prices at short intervals. That is why many central banks use response functions containing inflationary anticipations, in their inflation targeting models. The most frequently problem in relation to these anticipations is that they are based on the assumption of optimal forecasts of future inflation, which are, implicitly, rational anticipations. In fact, the economic agents’ inflationary anticipations are most often adaptive or even irrational. Thus, rational anticipations cannot be used to estimate equations for the Romanian economy because the agents who form their expectations do not have sufficient information and an inflationary environment stable enough to fully anticipate the inflation evolution. The inflation evolution in the Romanian economy helps to calculate adaptive forecasts for which the weight of the "forward looking" component has to be rather important. The economic agents form their inflation expectations for periods of time that, usually, coincide with a production cycle (one year and consider the official and unofficial inflation forecasts present on the market in order to make strategic decisions. Thus, in recent research on inflation modeling, actual inflationary anticipations of economic agents which are revealed based on national
The Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Ghana ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The sample period was divided into two subsamples -from 1970 to 1982 and 1983 to 2013- in order to test for the effect of the Economic Recovery Programme on the relationship between inflation and unemployment. The empirical estimate reveals that, changes in unemployment does not brings about changes in inflation ...
The effect of inflation on nuclear energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schofield, L.J.
A sophisticated analysis is given of the effects of inflation on the respective economics of CANDU power plants versus fossil fuel (especially coal-fired) power plants in Canada. Coal price escalation of 8% per annum or greater significantly favors CANDU plants. At 5%, especially with double digit inflation of capital costs, the competitive advantage of CANDU becomes small. (E.C.B.)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jørgen Ulff-Møller
1999-01-01
The United States, the United Kingdom and Denmark have all enjoyed a long period of high stable growth and low inflation in the 1990s. Attempts to determine the implications of this have led to the so-called "New Economics", whose advocates claim that the relationship between economic growth and ...... and inflation has fundamentally changes. The following article tests this thesis against current data for the USA.......The United States, the United Kingdom and Denmark have all enjoyed a long period of high stable growth and low inflation in the 1990s. Attempts to determine the implications of this have led to the so-called "New Economics", whose advocates claim that the relationship between economic growth...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Haşim Akça
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Corruption, which is defined as the illegal and benefit-oriented usage of public power, is a fact that has an impact on the macro-economic performance of economy in the scope of cause and effect. Within this framework, there is a strong cause and effect interaction between inflation, an important economic parameter, and corruption. Inflation is defined as not only a financial factor results in corruption but also an economic problem results from corruption. With this particular study, the relationship between inflation and corruption was tried to be tested one-way. In this context, the impact of inflation, growth, trade gap, the quality of legislation, the efficacy of government, political stability and responsibility variables on corruption was tested through panel data method concerning to the 2002-2010 period of totally 97 countries from three different income-level group. It was found as a result of the empirical data that the inflation has a statistically significant and positive effect on corruption in all these 97 countries from three different income-level groups.
Measuring and explaining inflation persistence: disaggregate evidence on the Czech Republic
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Babetskii, Ian; Coricelli, F.; Horváth, R.
-, č. 1 (2007), s. 1-36 Keywords : inflation dynamics * inflation targeting * persistence Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cnb.cz/m2export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2007_01.pdf
How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA
Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta; Vilmi , Lauri
2013-01-01
This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational expectations. Both rolling regressions and state-space models are employed. The results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We a...
LIU Jinquan; ZHENG Tingguo; SUI Jianli
2008-01-01
This paper uses the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model to investigate the China¡¯s monthly inflation rate from January 1983 to October 2005. It is found that both first moment and second moment of inflation have remarkable long memory, indicating the existence of long memory properties in both inflation level and inflation uncertainty. By the Granger-causality test on inflation rate and inflation uncertainty, it is shown that the inflation level affects the inflation uncertainty and so supports Friedman hy...
Private Sector Credit and Inflation Volatility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lorna Katusiime
2018-04-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of inflation volatility on private sector credit growth. The results indicate that private sector credit growth is positively linked to the one period lagged inflation volatility. Given that past monetary policy actions continue to affect the targeted variables due to the substantial lags in the transmission mechanism, the positive response of private sector credit growth to past inflation volatility suggests a credible monetary policy regime in Uganda, which has led to a reduction in the level of macroeconomic uncertainty and the restoration of favorable economic conditions and prospects, thus increasing the demand for credit. Further, the study finds that the lagged private sector credit growth, nominal exchange rate, and inflation have a statistically significant effect on private sector credit growth while financial innovation, interest rates, and GDP growth appear not to be important determinants of private sector credit growth. The robustness of our findings is confirmed by sensitivity checks.
How are inflation targets set?
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Horváth, R.; Matějů, Jakub
-, č. 426 (2010), s. 1-35 ISSN 1211-3298 Grant - others:MŠk(CZ) SVV-2010-261801 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : inflation targeting * central bank * credibility Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp426.pdf
Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Baxa, Jaromír; Plašil, M.; Vašíček, B.
2015-01-01
Roč. 44, č. 1 (2015), s. 116-130 ISSN 0264-9993 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Bayesian model averaging * Central European countries * Inflation Dynamics Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.997, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/baxa-0449816.pdf
Inflation persistence in African countries: Does inflation targeting matter?
Phiri, Andrew
2016-01-01
This study investigates inflation persistence in annual CPI inflation collected between 1994 and 2014 for 46 African countries. We group these countries into panels according to whether they are inflation targeters or not and conduct estimations for pre and post inflation targeting periods. Interestingly enough, we find that inflation persistence was much higher for inflation targeters in periods before adopting their inflation targeting regimes and inflation persistence dropped by 40 percent...
STOCHASTIC MODELING OF INFLATION IN NIGERIA
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2006-04-04
Apr 4, 2006 ... In this paper, we adopt a time series approach in modeling inflation in ... KEYWORDS: Buys-Ballot table; Quadratic trend; Seasonal multiplicative model, ..... Basic Statistics for Business and Economics, 2nd ed, Irwin, USA.
Inflation and House Prices: Theory and Evidence from 35 Major Cities in China
Weida Kuang; Peng Liu
2015-01-01
In recent years, housing prices and inflation have been growing constantly in China. Higher house prices and higher inflation affect both household consumption and economic growth. We have developed a four-sector general equilibrium model of consumers, developers, firms, and the central bank to illustrate the relationship of house prices with inflation. The theoretical model demonstrates that house prices and inflation are positively correlated and endogenously determined. By using panel data...
Employment status, inflation and suicidal behaviour: an analysis of a stratified sample in Italy.
Solano, Paola; Pizzorno, Enrico; Gallina, Anna M; Mattei, Chiara; Gabrielli, Filippo; Kayman, Joshua
2012-09-01
There is abundant empirical evidence of a surplus risk of suicide among the unemployed, although few studies have investigated the influence of economic downturns on suicidal behaviours in an employment status-stratified sample. We investigated how economic inflation affected suicidal behaviours according to employment status in Italy from 2001 to 2008. Data concerning economically active people were provided by the Italian Institute for Statistical Analysis and by the International Monetary Fund. The association between inflation and completed versus attempted suicide with respect to employment status was investigated in every year and quarter-year of the study time frame. We considered three occupational categories: employed, unemployed who were previously employed and unemployed who had never worked. The unemployed are at higher suicide risk than the employed. Among the PE, a significant association between inflation and suicide attempt was found, whereas no association was reported concerning completed suicides. No association was found between completed and attempted suicides among the employed, the NE and inflation. Completed suicide in females is significantly associated with unemployment in every quarter-year. The reported vulnerability to suicidal behaviours among the PE as inflation rises underlines the need of effective support strategies for both genders in times of economic downturns.
David Alan Aschauer
1998-01-01
This paper contains an investigation of the effects of different means of financing government spending on economic growth, inflation, and welfare. In this setting, two different types of government spending are considered: productive expenditures which provide services to the private sector in its production activities; and unproductive expenditures which have no direct influence on the private economy. In turn, two different forms of finance are considered: proportional income taxation; and...
Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Valentim Machado Vicente
2013-06-01
Full Text Available There is a widespread belief that inflation-linked bonds are a direct source of information about inflation expectations. In this paper we address this issue by analyzing the relationship between break-even inflation (the difference between nominal and real yields and future inflation. The dataset is extracted from Brazilian Treasury bonds covering the period from April 2005 to April 2011. We find that break-even inflation is an unbiased forecast only of the 3-month and 6-month ahead inflation. For medium horizons (12 and 18 months, break-even inflation has weak explanatory power of future inflation. Over long horizons (24 and 30 months, we report a significant, but counterintuitive, negative relationship between the break-even and realized inflation rates.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Halter, Sebastian
2012-01-01
This thesis is concerned with aspects of inflation both from a field theory and a string theory perspective. It aims at exploring new approaches to address the problem of moduli destabilization and the η-problem and to realize inflation in the matter sector. The first part is devoted to studying models of inflation in the framework of four-dimensional N=1 supergravity. We begin with investigating a new proposal to solve the problem of moduli destabilization, which seems to force us to choose between low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. This new approach is based on a particular way to couple the modulus to the F-term driving inflation. Using chaotic inflation with a shift symmetry as an example, we show that we can successfully combine low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. We construct a class of inflation models in N=1 supergravity where the inflaton resides in gauge non-singlet matter fields. These are extensions of a special class of hybrid inflation models, so-called tribrid inflation, where the η-problem can be solved by a Heisenberg symmetry. Compared to previously studied models, we have generalized our models with some inspiration from string theory. We investigate moduli stabilization during inflation and identify situations in which the inflaton slope is dominated by radiative corrections. We outline under which conditions this class of matter inflation models could be embedded into heterotic orbifold compactifications. In doing so, we suggest a new mechanism to stabilize some Kaehler moduli by F-terms for matter fields. In the second part, we consider models of warped D-brane inflation on a family of ten-dimensional supergravity backgrounds. We consider inflation along the radial direction near the tip of the warped throat and show that generically an inflection point arises for the inflaton potential, which is related to an inflection point of the dilaton profile. A universal scaling behaviour with the parameters of the
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Halter, Sebastian
2012-07-09
This thesis is concerned with aspects of inflation both from a field theory and a string theory perspective. It aims at exploring new approaches to address the problem of moduli destabilization and the η-problem and to realize inflation in the matter sector. The first part is devoted to studying models of inflation in the framework of four-dimensional N=1 supergravity. We begin with investigating a new proposal to solve the problem of moduli destabilization, which seems to force us to choose between low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. This new approach is based on a particular way to couple the modulus to the F-term driving inflation. Using chaotic inflation with a shift symmetry as an example, we show that we can successfully combine low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. We construct a class of inflation models in N=1 supergravity where the inflaton resides in gauge non-singlet matter fields. These are extensions of a special class of hybrid inflation models, so-called tribrid inflation, where the η-problem can be solved by a Heisenberg symmetry. Compared to previously studied models, we have generalized our models with some inspiration from string theory. We investigate moduli stabilization during inflation and identify situations in which the inflaton slope is dominated by radiative corrections. We outline under which conditions this class of matter inflation models could be embedded into heterotic orbifold compactifications. In doing so, we suggest a new mechanism to stabilize some Kaehler moduli by F-terms for matter fields. In the second part, we consider models of warped D-brane inflation on a family of ten-dimensional supergravity backgrounds. We consider inflation along the radial direction near the tip of the warped throat and show that generically an inflection point arises for the inflaton potential, which is related to an inflection point of the dilaton profile. A universal scaling behaviour with the parameters of the
Distortions Imposed By Inflation on Historical-Cost Depreciation
Bravo-Ureta, Boris E.
1983-01-01
The use of historical-cost depreciation in periods of persistent inflation decreases the present value of depreciation deductions, thus understating the true economic cost of capital and increasing the real after-tax rate of return required by potential investors. Efforts to correct these problems by adopting depreciation methods that allow for artificially short recovery periods or accelerated rates do not provide an adequate solution. Distortions imposed by inflation on historical-cost depr...
Inflation, its Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India
Raghbendra Jha; Varsha S. Kulkarni
2013-01-01
This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL(1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using ECM models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility alone (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation ...
Sources of Economic Instability in Turkey (1990-2008
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yusuf BAYRAKTUTAN
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Main reflections of instability in an economy can be followed through the rate of economic growth, inflation, interest rate, and foreign debt stock, etc. The policies aiming to struggle against inflation have established the basis of the stability programs. This paper investigates the relationship between inflation, interest rate, foreign debt stock and economic growth by analysing the data of Turkish economy for the period of 1990-2008. Specifically, in this study, the time series properties of inflation, interest rate, foreign debt stock, and economic growth were ascertained with the help of augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root procedure. Then, the relationship between inflation, interest rate, foreign debt stock, and economic growth was examined at the context of a regression analysis
Towards a formal link between inflation perceptions and inflation ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper reports the finding of a survey of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa undertaken in 2014. This survey posed questions on perceptions of past inflation (historic inflation) and expectations of future inflation to the same respondents and determined linkages between historic views and ...
Inflation: Causes and Cures. Series on Public Issues No. 9.
Saving, Thomas R.
This booklet, one of a series intended to apply economic principles to major social and political issues of the day, focuses on the relationship between growth of the money supply, growth of productivity, and inflation. Provided first is a definition of inflation along with discussions of price indexes, the value of money, and the concept of…
Food inflation in South Africa: some implications for economic policy.
Rangasamy, Logan
2011-01-01
This paper analyses the trends in food price movements in South Africa between 1980 and 2008. There are three main results emanating from the analysis in this paper. Firstly, food price movements have played a large role in generating inflationary episodes in South Africa. Secondly, while external influences do matter, South African food price movements are mainly due to domestic influences. This implies that national policy has an important role to play in taming domestic food price inflation. Thirdly, given the strong second round impacts, food price movements warrant special attention in monetary policymaking. Core measures of inflation that exclude food price movements may not accurately reflect the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy and could compromise the attainment of the goal of price stability.
Inflation, investment and growth: a money and banking approach
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal
2011-01-01
Roč. 78, č. 310 (2011), s. 260-282 ISSN 0013-0427 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation * investments * economic development Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.152, year: 2011
Inflation Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India
Raghbendra Jha; Varsha S. Kulkarni
2012-01-01
This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility and tests the determinants of such volatility for India. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL (1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using ECM models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility along (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major det...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barenboim, Gabriela; Park, Wan-Il; Kinney, William H.
2016-01-01
We consider eternal inflation in hilltop-type inflation models, favored by current data, in which the scalar field in inflation rolls off of a local maximum of the potential. Unlike chaotic or plateau-type inflation models, in hilltop inflation the region of field space which supports eternal inflation is finite, and the expansion rate H EI during eternal inflation is almost exactly the same as the expansion rate H * during slow roll inflation. Therefore, in any given Hubble volume, there is a finite and calculable expectation value for the lifetime of the ''eternal'' inflation phase, during which quantum flucutations dominate over classical field evolution. We show that despite this, inflation in hilltop models is nonetheless eternal in the sense that the volume of the spacetime at any finite time is exponentially dominated by regions which continue to inflate. This is true regardless of the energy scale of inflation, and eternal inflation is supported for inflation at arbitrarily low energy scale.
The effect of inflation rate on the cost of medical waste management system
Jolanta Walery, Maria
2017-11-01
This paper describes the optimization study aimed to analyse the impact of the parameter describing the inflation rate on the cost of the system and its structure. The study was conducted on the example of the analysis of medical waste management system in north-eastern Poland, in the Podlaskie Province. The scope of operational research carried out under the optimization study was divided into two stages of optimization calculations with assumed technical and economic parameters of the system. In the first stage, the lowest cost of functioning of the analysed system was generated, whereas in the second one the influence of the input parameter of the system, i.e. the inflation rate on the economic efficiency index (E) and the spatial structure of the system was determined. With the assumed inflation rate in the range of 1.00 to 1.12, the highest cost of the system was achieved at the level of PLN 2022.20/t (increase of economic efficiency index E by ca. 27% in comparison with run 1, with inflation rate = 1.12).
Inflation and Financial Sector Performance: The Case of Nigeria
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alimi R. Santos
2014-06-01
Full Text Available The paper examines the long run and short run relationships between inflation and the financial sector development in Nigeria over the period between 1970 and 2012. Three variables, namely; broad definition of money as ratio of GDP, quasi money as share of GDP and credit to private sector as share of GDP, were used to proxy financial sector development. Our findings suggest that inflation presented deleterious effects on financial development over the study period. The main implication of the results is that poor macroeconomic performance has deleterious effects to financial development - a variable that is important for affecting economic growth and income inequality. Moreover, we observed a negative effect of the measures of financial development on growth, suggesting that impact of inflation on the economic growth passes through financial sector. Therefore, low and stable prices, is a necessary first step to achieving a deeper and more active financial sector that will enhance growth as predicted by Schumpeter.
MEASURING INFLATION THROUGH STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO INDEX NUMBERS FOR PAKISTAN
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zahid Asghar
2010-09-01
Full Text Available This study attempts to estimate the rate of inflation in Pakistan through stochastic approach to index numbers which provides not only point estimate but also confidence interval for the rate of inflation. There are two types of approaches to index number theory namely: the functional economic approaches and the stochastic approach. The attraction of stochastic approach is that it estimates the rate of inflation in which uncertainty and statistical ideas play a major roll of screening index numbers. We have used extended stochastic approach to index numbers for measuring inflation by allowing for the systematic changes in the relative prices. We use CPI data covering the period July 2001--March 2008 for Pakistan.
Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA
Bhar, Ramprasad; Mallik, Girijasankar
2010-12-01
Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general.
INFLATE: INFlate Landing Apparatus Technology
Koryanov, V. V. K.; Da-Poian, V. D. P.
2018-02-01
Our project, named INFLATE (INFlatable Landing Apparatus Technology), aims at reducing space landing risks and constraints and so optimizing space missions (reducing cost, mass, and risk and in the same time improving performance).
Inflation Aversion and the Optimal Inflation Tax
Gaowang Wang; Heng-fu Zou
2011-01-01
The optimal inflation tax is reexamined in the framework of dynamic second best economy populated by individuals with inflation aversion. A simple formula for the optimal inflation rate is derived. Different from the literature, it is shown that if the marginal excess burden of other distorting taxes approaches zero, Friedman's rule for optimum quantity of money is not optimal, and the optimal inflation tax is negative; if the marginal excess burden of other taxes is nonzero, the optimal infl...
An Economic Recovery with Little Sign of Inflation Acceleration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hallett, Andrew Hughes
This paper investigates the possibility that there has been a structural shift in inflation (upward) in the euro area since the recovery in 2014 or 2015. From the perspective of policy, it is important to be sure that any such shifts are significant statistically, sustained or likely to be sustai...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antusch, S.; King, F.S.; Malinsky, M.; Velasco-Sevilla, L.; Zavala, I.
2008-04-01
We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflation field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possible inflation models, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these many possibilities we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A 4 or Δ 27 , and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition. (author)
Nelene Ehlers and Rudi Steinbach - WP/07/06- The formation of inflation expectations in South Africa
Nelene Ehlers; Rudi Steinbach
2007-01-01
Abstract- A key factor in the inflation-targeting regime is the psychological process by which individuals and firms form their expectations of future inflation. From a monetary policy perspective, it is important to analyse this process, since under full rationality, only unexpected changes in inflation will affect real variables. In this paper, data from both the Bureau for Economic Research’s Inflation Expectations Survey and the Reuters Inflation Expectations Survey are evaluated, over di...
Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper reports the results of a multinomial analysis of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa. Inflation perceptions surveys among South African individuals have been undertaken since 2006. The introduction of these surveys followed on domestic inflation expectation surveys conducted in 2000, ...
Inflation expectations in the Czech interbank market
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Fukač, Martin
-, č. 253 (2005), s. 1-30 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation expectations * nominal interest rate * Fisher rule Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp253.pdf
Inflation,Inflation Variability, and Output Performance. Venezuela 1951-2002
Olivo, Victor
2014-01-01
This paper explores the relationship between the level of inflation, inflation variability, and output performance in the Venezuelan economy for the period 1951-2002. The paper examines the mechanism through which higher inflation translates into lower non-oil real GDP growth. We find empirical evidence that supports Friedman's (1977) contention that higher inflation produces more inflation volatility /uncertainty that leads to relative price variability that in turn, is harmful for the prope...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Antusch, S. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Muenchen (Germany); King, S.F.; Malinsky, M. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Velasco-Sevilla, L. [ICTP, Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34014 (Italy)], E-mail: lvelasco@ictp.it; Zavala, I. [CPT and IPPP, Durham University, South Road, DH1 3LE, Durham (United Kingdom)
2008-08-14
We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflaton field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possibilities for inflation, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these, we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A{sub 4} or {delta}{sub 27}, and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antusch, S.; King, S.F.; Malinsky, M.; Velasco-Sevilla, L.; Zavala, I.
2008-01-01
We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflaton field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possibilities for inflation, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these, we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A 4 or Δ 27 , and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition
THE INFLUENCES OF INFLATION ON THE MONETARY POLICY INTEREST
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Popa Coralia Emilia
2012-12-01
Full Text Available In the context of sovereign debt crisis in Europe, a crisis entirely felt also in the direct relation between credit institutions, the National Bank of Romania (NBR adopted a monetary policy strategy meant to determine the reinforcement of its image, by initiating in the autumn of 2011 a new series of reduction of the monetary policy interest rate and implicitly the appropriate resizing of liquidity conditions. By increasing the role of liquidity adjustment, the European Central Bank (ECB succeeded to determine in the money market the decrease of interbank rate interests under the interest rate level of monetary policy. The direct inflation targeting strategy used by the European Central Bank in applying its monetary policy has the first criterion of implementation the expression of inflation target in terms of â€žheadline inflationâ€ (consumer price index - CPI given that the economic market in Romania is familiar with this indicator. Also, the main criterion considered by the investment segment of the market to achieve capital infusions in economic transactions is represented by the consumer price index, this one ensuring the necessary transparency related to the effects of inflation phenomenon. A strong argument supporting the use of consumer price index in monetary policy is represented by its upward flexibility towards the limited effectiveness of monetary aggregates in sizing inflationary anticipations. The downward slope of inflation phenomenon, in whose depreciation the evolution of consumer price index, whose positive trend surprised the European Central Bank, played a significant role, determined adjustments in the monetary policy strategy of the National Bank of Romania and at the same time the achievement of the inflationary target proposed with a direct effect on the monetary policy interest rate. The same measure to reduce the key interest rate is outlined in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and it is
Berkin, Andrew L.; Maeda, Kei-Ichi; Yokoyama, Junichi
1990-01-01
The cosmology resulting from two coupled scalar fields was studied, one which is either a new inflation or chaotic type inflation, and the other which has an exponentially decaying potential. Such a potential may appear in the conformally transformed frame of generalized Einstein theories like the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory. The constraints necessary for successful inflation are examined. Conventional GUT models such as SU(5) were found to be compatible with new inflation, while restrictions on the self-coupling constant are significantly loosened for chaotic inflation.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kamada, Kohei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Kobayashi, Tsutomu [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Hakubi Center; Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Takahashi, Tomo [Saga Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yamaguchi, Masahide [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yokoyama, Jun' ichi [Tokyo Univ. (JP). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Tokyo Univ., Chiba (JP). Inst. for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (IPMU)
2012-03-15
We study Higgs inflation in the context of generalized G-inflation, i.e., the most general single-field inflation model with second-order field equations. The four variants of Higgs inflation proposed so far in the literature can be accommodated at one time in our framework. We also propose yet another class of Higgs inflation, the running Einstein inflation model, that can naturally arise from the generalized G-inflation framework. As a result, five Higgs inflation models in all should be discussed on an equal footing. Concise formulas for primordial fluctuations in these generalized Higgs inflation models are provided, which will be helpful to determine which model is favored from the future experiments and observations such as the Large Hadron Collider and the Planck satellite.
Causes and Results of Exchange Rate Intervention Under Inflation Targeting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bora Suslu
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Under inflation targeting, central banks exchange rate interventions are discussed frequently in the economic literature recently. Effectiveness of intervention in exchange rate under inflation targeting are examined from three perspectives. These are expectations of the actors and the impact on the variance, reserve accumulation and the cost of sterilization. Since 2003 the Central Bank of Turkey has intervened exchange rate with both direct and indirect methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the results of these three aspects of the CBRT and the foreign exchange interventions. We found that by logit analysis under the inflation targeting of CBRT as a result of the intervention of exchange rate is effect expectations of economic unit and reduce of exchange rate the variance; after thes intervention the variance of exchange rate and cost of sterilization are increased. In this respect, the effectiveness of the intervention of the Central Bank exchange rate market is only reserve accumulation
Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker
2012-01-01
We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vijay Boyapati
2010-12-01
Full Text Available This article provides an Austrian overview of the inflation versus deflation debate which has captured the attention of the economics profession in the years following the US housing bust. Much of the Austrian analysis of this debate has focused on the massive expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and attendant creation of new reserves. Several Austrian economists have predicted that the creation of new reserves will cause a massive increase in inflation. The money multiplier theory, on which these predictions are based, is criticized and an overview of the Austrian business cycle theory is provided to explain why banks are reluctant to issue new credit. Finally, an analysis of the politics of deflation is provided and a class theory is presented to explain why a policy of controlled credit deflation is more likely than a policy that would result in mass inflation or hyperinflation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Yang; Piao, Yun-Song; Si, Zong-Guo
2009-01-01
In this paper, we revisit the idea of locked inflation, which does not require a potential satisfying the normal slow-roll condition, but suffers from the problems associated with ''saddle inflation''. We propose a scenario based on locked inflation, however, with an alternative evolution mechanism of the ''waterfall field'' φ. Instead of rolling down along the potential, the φ field will tunnel to end the inflation stage like in old inflation, by which the saddle inflation could be avoided. Further, we study a cascade of old locked inflation, which can be motivated by the string landscape. Our model is based on the consideration of making locked inflation feasible so as to give a working model without slow roll; It also can be seen as an effort to embed the old inflation in string landscape
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kolb, E.W.
1991-01-01
In the original proposal, inflation occurred in the process of a strongly first-order phase transition. This model was soon demonstrated to be fatally flawed. Subsequent models for inflation involved phase transitions that were second-order, or perhaps weakly first-order; some even involved no phase transition at all. Recently the possibility of inflation during a strongly first-order phase transition has been reviewed. In this talk I will discuss some models for first-order inflation, and emphasize unique signatures that result if inflation is realized in a first-order transition. Before discussing first-order inflation, I will briefly review some of the history of inflation to demonstrate how first-order inflation differs from other models. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kolb, E.W.; Chicago Univ., IL
1990-09-01
In the original proposal, inflation occurred in the process of a strongly first-order phase transition. This model was soon demonstrated to be fatally flawed. Subsequent models for inflation involved phase transitions that were second-order, or perhaps weakly first-order; some even involved no phase transition at all. Recently the possibility of inflation during a strongly first-order phase transition has been revived. In this talk I will discuss some models for first-order inflation, and emphasize unique signatures that result in inflation is realized in a first-order transition. Before discussing first-order inflation, I will briefly review some of the history of inflation to demonstrate how first-order inflation differs from other models. 58 refs., 3 figs
Perbedaan Perusahan Pencipta Economic Value Added Positif Dengan Economic Value Added Negatif
Suripto, Suripto
2008-01-01
This research was to explain and analyze the different variable of Inflation Rate,Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Ratio Plant Asset, Size Measure Company, Profitability, Growth ,LD / E, TD / TA, Stock of Return, Book To Market between company having Economic ValueAdded ( Positive ) and company having Economic Value Added ( Negative ). Analysis which wasused in this research was multivariate analysis of variant (MANOVA). There was different variableof Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate...
Furrukh Bashi; Shahbaz Nawaz; Kalsoom Yasi; Usman Khursheed; Jahanzeb Khan; Muhammad Junaid Qureshi
2011-01-01
Inflation is regarded as regressive taxation against the poor. The most visible impact of inflation in recent times is its effect on real output, relative prices, taxes and interest rates. The study focuses to examine demand side and supply side determinants of inflation in Pakistan on economic and econometric criterion and also to investigate causal relationships among some macroeconomic variables. For that purpose, study has undertaken time series data for the period from 1972 to 2010. Long...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raphael T Mpofu
2017-03-01
Full Text Available The paper analyses the association between certain macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, non-food price inflation and overall inflation in Zimbabwe, and also seeks to determine the level of association between these variables, given food security implications and overall well-being of its citizens. The study reveals that during the 2010 to 2016 period, Zimbabwe experienced stable food prices—annual food price inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages averaged a relatively low growth rate of 0.12% monthly, while non-food inflation monthly growth rate was 0.09% and overall inflation growth rate was 0.11%. Although inflation from 2010 had been declining, of late, the increase in annual inflation has been underpinned by a rise in non-food inflation. Zimbabwe’s annual inflation remains lower than inflation rates in other countries in the region. Despite the increases lately in overall inflation, it remained below zero in January 2016, mostly driven by the depreciation of the South African rand and declining international oil prices. It should also be noted that domestic demand continued to decline in 2015, leading to the observed decline in both food and non-food prices. While food inflation has remained relatively low, it should be noted that non-food expenditures is significant component of the household budget and the rising prices result often lead to declining purchasing power and force households to make difficult choices in terms of their purchases. The findings of the study are food inflation has a low association with the independent variables under study; Zimbabwe broad money supply, rand-dollar exchange rates and the South Africa food inflation. There is, however, a very strong association between non-food inflation and these independent variables, as well as between overall inflation and the independent variables. Given the mostly rural population and the high level of unemployment in Zimbabwe, it can be surmised that
Technical Note: Does Core Inflation Help Forecast Total Inflation? Evidence from Colombia
John Thornton
1998-01-01
In Colombia core and total inflation are both (1) series, and core inflation is cointegrated with total inflation. Granger causality tests using error correction methodology indicate that divergence of total inflation from core inflation is quickly revers
Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA
Ivan Kitov
2005-01-01
Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...
A comparison of the VAR model and the PC factor model in forecasting inflation in Montenegro
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lipovina-Božović Milena
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Montenegro started using the euro in 2002 and regained independence in 2006. Its main economic partners are European countries, yet inflation movements in Montenegro do not coincide with consumer price fluctuations in the eurozone. Trying to develop a useful forecasting model for Montenegrin inflation, we compare the results of a three-variable vector autoregression (VAR model, and a principle component (PC factor model starting with twelve variables. The estimation period is January 2001 to December 2012, and the control months are the first six months of 2013. The results show that in forecasting inflation, despite a high level of Montenegrin economic dependence on international developments, more reliable forecasts are achieved with the use of additional information on a larger number of factors, which includes domestic economic activity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh
2013-01-01
In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)
Sofyan, Hizir; Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin
2017-11-01
A country has several important parameters to achieve economic prosperity, such as tax revenue and inflation rate. One of the largest revenues of the State Budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Meanwhile, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as an indicator, to measure the good and bad economic problems faced by the country. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the structure of tax revenue relations and inflation rate. This study aims to produce the best VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) with optimal lag using various alpha and perform structural analysis using the Impulse Response Function (IRF) of the VECM models to examine the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh. The results showed that the best model for the data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.01 is VECM with optimal lag 2, while the best model for data of tax revenue and inflation rate in Banda Aceh City using alpha 0.05 and 0,1 VECM with optimal lag 3. However, the VECM model with alpha 0.01 yielded four significant models of income tax model, inflation rate of Banda Aceh, inflation rate of health and inflation rate of education in Banda Aceh. While the VECM model with alpha 0.05 and 0.1 yielded one significant model that is income tax model. Based on the VECM models, then there are two structural analysis IRF which is formed to look at the relationship of tax revenue, and inflation in Banda Aceh, the IRF with VECM (2) and IRF with VECM (3).
Tax revenue and inflation rate predictions in Banda Aceh using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin; Sofyan, Hizir
2018-05-01
A country has some important parameters to achieve the welfare of the economy, such as tax revenues and inflation. One of the largest revenues of the state budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Besides, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as one measure, to measure economic problems that the country facing. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the relationship and forecasting tax revenue and inflation rate. VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was chosen as the method used in this research, because of the data used in the form of multivariate time series data. This study aims to produce a VECM model with optimal lag and to predict the tax revenue and inflation rate of the VECM model. The results show that the best model for data of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Banda Aceh City is VECM with 3rd optimal lag or VECM (3). Of the seven models formed, there is a significant model that is the acceptance model of income tax. The predicted results of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Kota Banda Aceh for the next 6, 12 and 24 periods (months) obtained using VECM (3) are considered valid, since they have a minimum error value compared to other models.
The Effect of Money Supply on the Inflation the Period between 1980-2013 in Turkey Economy
İsmail Şahin; Muhammet Karanfil
2015-01-01
To provide the economic stability, in the fight against the inflation problem, various monetary and fiscal policies have been applied in different periods in Turkey. In spite of these policies, inflation has not been taken to the expected level in the certain period. However, in recent years the decline in the inflation has demonstrated that the policies which were implemented were effective. At the end of these policies, the object is achieved partly which, was targeted in the inflation. The...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Murphy, P.J.
1987-01-01
The Theory of Inflation, namely, that at some point the entropy content of the universe was greatly increased, has much promise. It may solve the puzzles of homogeneity and the creation of structure. However, no particle physics model has yet been found that can successfully drive inflation. The difficulty in satisfying the constraint that the isotropy of the microwave background places on the effective potential of prospective models is immense. In this work we have codified the requirements of such models in a most general form. We have carefully calculated the amounts of inflation the various problems of the Standard Model need for their solution. We have derived a completely model independent upper bond on the inflationary Hubble parameter. We have developed a general notation with which to probe the possibilities of Multiple Inflation. We have shown that only in very unlikely circumstances will any evidence of an earlier inflation, survive the de Sitter period of its successor. In particular, it is demonstrated that it is most unlikely that two bouts of inflation will yield high amplitudes of density perturbations on small scales and low amplitudes on large. We conclude that, while multiple inflation will be of great theoretical interest, it is unlikely to have any observational impact
The Definition of Inflation According to Mises: Implications for the Debate on Free Banking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nicolás Cachanosky
Full Text Available The discussion of what is and what is not inflation has become central among the Austrian economists in their debate between free banking with fractional reserves versus banking with 100-percent reserve. Many Austrians also turn to the writings of Mises to find out what the dean of Austrian Economics thought about inflation, but there is no agreement on the interpretation of his writings either. This article tries to contribute to the interpretation of Mises’ concept of inflation.
Remote inflation as hybrid-like sneutrino/MSSM inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsuda, Tomohiro
2009-01-01
A new scenario of hybrid-like inflation is considered for sneutrino and MSSM fields. Contrary to the usual hybrid inflation model, the direct coupling between a trigger field and the sneutrino/MSSM inflaton field is not necessary for the scenario. The dissipation and the radiation from the sneutrino/MSSM inflaton can be written explicitly by using the Yukawa couplings. Remote inflation does not require the shift symmetry or cancellation in solving the η problem.
Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur
2012-01-01
We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ''tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries
Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation
Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur
2012-08-01
We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ``tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries.
The Determinants of Inflation in Botswana and Bank of Botswana's ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
international deflationary environment prevails, the probability that the Bank of Botswana ... Economic theory suggests that the sources of domestic inflation could be .... Second, in Monte Carlo studies it performs better than the above.
Inflation Protected Investment Strategies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mirco Mahlstedt
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a dynamic inflation-protected investment strategy is presented, which is based on traditional asset classes and Markov-switching models. Different stock market, as well as inflation regimes are identified, and within those regimes, the inflation hedging potential of stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities and gold are investigated. Within each regime, we determine optimal investment portfolios driven by the investment idea of protection from losses due to changing inflation if inflation is rising or high, but decoupling the performance from inflation if inflation is low. The results clearly indicate that these asset classes behave differently in different stock market and inflation regimes. Whereas in the long-run, we agree with the general opinion in the literature that stocks and bonds are a suitable hedge against inflation, we observe for short time horizons that the hedging potential of each asset class, especially of real estate and commodities, depend strongly on the state of the current market environment. Thus, our approach provides a possible explanation for different statements in the literature regarding the inflation hedging properties of these asset classes. A dynamic inflation-protected investment strategy is developed, which combines inflation protection and upside potential. This strategy outperforms standard buy-and-hold strategies, as well as the well-known 1 N -portfolio.
Not So Fast: Inflation in Impact Factors Contributes to Apparent Improvements in Journal Quality
Neff, Bryan D.; Olden, Julian D.
2010-01-01
The Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) impact factor has become an important standard for assessing journal quality. Here we propose that impact factors may be subject to inflation analogous to changes in monetary prices in economics. The possibility of inflation came to light as a result of the observation that papers published today tend…
Inflation and balanced-path growth with alternative payment mechanisms
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal
-, E2005/15 (2005), s. 1-34 ISSN 1749-6101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation * payment mechanisms * human capital Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/carbs/econ/ working papers/papers/2005_15.pdf
Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur, E-mail: stefan.antusch@unibas.ch, E-mail: david.nolde@unibas.ch, E-mail: mansoor-ur.rehman@unibas.ch [Department of Physics, University of Basel, Klingelbergstr. 82, CH-4056 Basel (Switzerland)
2012-08-01
We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ''tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries.
Is Inflation in India an Attractor of Inflation in Nepal?
Edimon Ginting
2007-01-01
The paper attempts to answer some important questions around the inflationary process in Nepal, particularly the transmission of inflation from India. Because the Nepali currency is pegged to the Indian rupee and the two countries share an open border, price developments in Nepal would be expected to mirror to those in India. The results show that inflation in India and inflation in Nepal tend to converge in the long run. Our estimates indicate that the passthrough of inflation from India to ...
Does money matter in inflation forecasting?
Binner, J. M.; Tino, P.; Tepper, J.; Anderson, R.; Jones, B.; Kendall, G.
2010-11-01
This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression-techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naïve random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists’ long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies.
Hebecker, Arthur; Lust, Dieter; Steinfurt, Stephan; Weigand, Timo
2012-01-01
As a first step towards inflation in genuinely F-theoretic setups, we propose a scenario where the inflaton is the relative position of two 7-branes on holomorphic 4-cycles. Non-supersymmetric gauge flux induces an attractive inter-brane potential. The latter is sufficiently flat in the supergravity regime of large volume moduli. Thus, in contrast to brane-antibrane inflation, fluxbrane inflation does not require warping. We calculate the inflaton potential both in the supergravity approximation and via an open-string one-loop computation on toroidal backgrounds. This leads us to propose a generalisation to genuine Calabi-Yau manifolds. We also comment on competing F-term effects. The end of inflation is marked by the condensation of tachyonic recombination fields between the 7-branes, triggering the formation of a bound state described as a stable extension along the 7-brane divisor. Hence our model fits in the framework of hybrid D-term inflation. We work out the main phenomenological properties of our D-te...
Estimating core inflation : the role of oil price shocks and imported inflation
Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane
1997-01-01
This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that ...
Inflation, investment and growth: a money and banking approach
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal
-, 2009/11 (2009), s. 1-33. ISBN 978-963-9796-21-8. ISSN 1785-377X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation * investment * Tobin Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://econ.core.hu/file/download/mtdp/MTDP0911.pdf
Eternal extended inflation and graceful exit from old inflation without Jordan-Brans-Dicke
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Linde, A.
1990-01-01
Recently a possible solution to the graceful exit problem of the old inflation was proposed in the context of the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory (extended inflation). In this paper we will argue that inflation in this theory occurs in a most natural way if it starts near the Planck density, as in the standard version of chaotic inflation. With most natural initial conditions, the inflationary universe in the JBD theory enters the stage of permanent reproduction of new inflationary domains (eternal extended inflation). In order to realize the extended inflation scenario at least two classical scalar fields driving inflation are necessary, as distinct from the simplest versions of new and chaotic inflation. It is shown that in the theory of two scalar fields one can solve the graceful exit problem even without modifying the Einstein gravity theory, due to the possibility that the decay rate of the false vacuum in old inflation depends on the value of the second scalar field and hence on time. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silk, J.; Turner, M.S.
1986-04-01
The Zel'dovich spectrum of adiabatic density perturbations is a generic prediction of inflation. There is increasing evidence that when the spectrum is normalized by observational data on small scales, there is not enough power on large scales to account for the observed large-scale structure in the Universe. Decoupling the spectrum on large and small scales could solve this problem. As a means of decoupling the large and small scales we propose double inflation (i.e., two episodes of inflation). In this scenario the spectrum on large scales is determined by the first episode of inflation and those on small scales by a second episode of inflation. We present three models for such a scenario. By nearly saturating the large angular-scale cosmic microwave anisotropy bound, we can easily account for the observed large-scale structure. We take the perturbations on small scales to be very large, deltarho/rho approx. = 0.1 to 0.01, which results in the production of primordial black holes (PBHs), early formation of structure, reionization of the Universe, and a rich array of astrophysical events. The Ω-problem is also addressed by our scenario. Allowing the density perturbations produced by the second episode of inflation to be large also lessens the fine-tuning required in the scalar potential and makes reheating much easier. We briefly speculate on the possibility that the second episode of inflation proceeds through the nucleation of bubbles, which today manifest themselves as empty bubbles whose surfaces are covered with galaxies. 37 refs., 1 fig
Finding optimal measures of core inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Uzagalieva, Ainura
-, 04/01 (2004), s. 1-37 ISSN 1561-2422 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : Kyrgyz Republic * inflation * monetary policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.eerc.ru/details/download.aspx?file_id=3744
Inflation targeting and inflation performance : a comparative analysis
Samarina, Anna; De Haan, Jakob; Terpstra, M.
2014-01-01
This article examines how the impact of inflation targeting on inflation performance depends on the choice of country samples, adoption dates, time periods and methodological approaches. We apply two different estimation methods - difference-in-differences and propensity score matching - for our
Inflation convergence within the European Union: a panel data analysis
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kočenda, Evžen; Papell, D. H.
1997-01-01
Roč. 2, č. 3 (1997), s. 189-198 ISSN 1076-9307 Keywords : inflation convergence * European Union * panel data Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=16616418&site=ehost-live
Finding optimal measures of core inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Uzagalieva, Ainura
-, č. 261 (2005), s. 1-37 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : Kyrgyz Republic * core inflation * monetary policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp261.pdf
Does political instability lead to higher and more volatile inflation?: A panel data analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aisen Ari
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Economists generally accept the proposition that high and volatile inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society’s welfare. Furthermore studies have shown that inflation is harmful to economic growth. However determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a broad dataset covering over 100 countries for the period 1975-1997 and using dynamic and static panel data econometric techniques, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with both higher inflation levels and volatility. Not only does this paper advance the political economy literature establishing a relationship between inflation moments and political instability, but it also has important policy implications regarding the optimal design of inflation stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.
Eternal extended inflation and graceful exit from old inflation without Jordan-Brans-Dicke
Linde, Andrei
1990-10-01
Recently a possible solution to the graceful exit problem of the old inflation was proposed in the context of the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory (extended inflation). In this paper we will argue that inflation in this theory occurs in a most natural way if it starts near the Planck density, as in the standard version of chaotic inflation. With most natural initial conditions, the inflationary universe in the JBD theory enters the stage of permanent reproduction of new inflationary domains (eternal extended inflation). In order to realize the extended inflation scenario at least two classical scalar fields driving inflation are necessary, as distinct from the simplest versions of new and chaotic inflation. It is shown that in the theory of two scalar fields one can solve the graceful exit problem even without modifying the Einstein gravity theory, due to the possibility that the decay rate of the false rate vacuum in old inflation depends on the value of the second scalar field and hence on time. Address after 1 September 1990: Physics Department, Stanford University, Varian Building, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Quintessential inflation: A unified scenario of inflation and dark energy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hossain Wali
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Quintessential inflation unifies inflation and late time acceleration by a single scalar field. Such a scenario, with canonical and non-canonical scalar fields, has been discussed. The scalar field behaves as an inflaton field during inflation and as a quintessence field during late time. Also the predictions of the models has been compared with the recent Planck data.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jørgen Ulff-Møller
1999-01-01
The United States, the United Kingdom and Denmark have all enjoyed a long period of high stable growth and low inflation in the 1990s. Attempts to determine the implications of this have led to the so-called "New Economics", whose advocates claim that the relationship between economic growth...
OSHA Confronts Carcinogens in the Workplace as Inflation Fighters Confront OSHA.
Heller, Ilene
1978-01-01
Discusses the apparently opposing forces of worker safety, as represented by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and economic inflation spawned by expensive industrial processes needed to limit the emission of carcinogens. (CP)
Kaehler-driven tribrid inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David
2012-01-01
We discuss a new class of tribrid inflation models in supergravity, where the shape of the inflaton potential is dominated by effects from the Kaehler potential. Tribrid inflation is a variant of hybrid inflation which is particularly suited for connecting inflation with particle physics, since the inflaton can be a D-flat combination of charged fields from the matter sector. In models of tribrid inflation studied so far, the inflaton potential was dominated by either loop corrections or by mixing effects with the waterfall field (as in 'pseudosmooth' tribrid inflation). Here we investigate the third possibility, namely that tribrid inflation is dominantly driven by effects from higher-dimensional operators of the Kaehler potential. We specify for which superpotential parameters the new regime is realized and show how it can be experimentally distinguished from the other two (loop-driven and p seudosmooth ) regimes
Towards inflation targeting in Egypt: the relationship between exchange rate and inflation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aliaa Khodeir
2012-08-01
Full Text Available Since the Egyptian economy has recently moved towards inflation targeting, it became very important to know whether exchange rate movements have serious inflationary implications or not. To investigate this subject, the study aims to analyse the relevance of inflation with the exchange rate by using the Granger-causality test. Two indicators of inflation will be used, the consumer price index (CPI and wholesale price index (WPI. In general, the results show a strong relationship between the two variables in a way that may give support to the application of ‘flexible inflation targeting regime instead of strict inflation targeting regime’.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal
-, CDMC07/03 (2007), s. 1-31 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation * financial development * growth Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/cp0703.pdf
Monetary policy and insolvency of economic sector
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tepavac Rajko
2012-03-01
Full Text Available The main task of monetary policy of our central bank is to achieve and preserve stability of prices and currency. Targeted inflation rate has been chosen as operating instrument for gradual realization of low and stable inflation, along with elimination of inflation expectations. Also, a specific inflation corridor is chosen to ensure operations, transparency and ex ante effects of monetary policy. The paper presents analysis on whether there really is a restrictive monetary policy, deflections of real inflation from the programmed one, level of 'restrictiveness' of monetary policy and behavior of bank loans, money supply, nominal and real economic growth. Analysis is carried out and criticism of concepts of monetary regulation of mandatory bank reserves, blocking of financial bank potential through monetary regulation instruments, but also relations between central and business banks through open market policy. Criticism of repo operations and complete disappearance of selective credit policy is provided as well. The problem of almost embedded insolvency of economic sector is highlighted.
The term structure of interest rates and inflation forecast targeting
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eric Schaling
2011-08-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the implications of the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates for the implementation of inflation targeting. We show that the responsiveness of the central bank’s instrument to the underlying state of the economy is increasing in the duration of the long-term bond. On the other hand, an increase in duration will make long-term inflationary expectations - and therefore also the long-term nominal interest rate - less responsive to the state of the economy. The extent to which the central bank is concerned with output stabilisation will exert a moderating influence on the central bank’s response to leading indicators of future inflation. However, the effect of an increase in this parameter on the long-term nominal interest rate turns out to be ambiguous. Next, we show that both the sensitivity of the nominal term spread to economic fundamentals and the extent to which the spread predicts future output, are increasing in the duration of the long bond and the degree of structural output persistence. However, if the central bank becomes relatively less concerned about inflation stabilisation the term spread will be less successful in predicting real economic activity.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Burrage, Clare [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Rham, Claudia de [Univ. de Geneve (Switzerland). Dept. de Physique Theorique; Seery, David [Sussex Univ., Brigthon (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Tolley, Andrew J. [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States). Dept. of Physics
2010-09-15
Galileon inflation is a radiatively stable higher derivative model of inflation. The model is determined by a finite number of relevant operators which are protected by a covariant generalization of the Galileon shift symmetry. We show that the nongaussianity of the primordial density perturbation generated during an epoch of Galileon inflation is a particularly powerful observational probe of these models and that, when the speed of sound is small, f{sub NL} can be larger than the usual result f{sub NL} {proportional_to} C{sup -2}{sub s}. (orig.)
Inflation persistence : euro area and new EU member states
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Franta, Michal; Saxa, Branislav; Šmídková, K.
-, č. 810 (2007), s. 1-39 ISSN 1725-2806 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation persistence * new EU member states * time varying mean Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp810.pdf
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dumiter Florin Cornel
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Central bank independence has become over time one of the key concepts in modern theory and policy. Most economists agree that central bank independence is desirable because it helps achieving and maintaining the long â€“ term goal of price stability. Although one might think about alternative mechanisms to reach lower inflation rates, central bank independence is clearly the most often recomended. The empirical trends upon a more independent central bank with a more transparent and accountable monetary policy regime has emerged in economic literature regarding central banking and monetary economics. In recent years, starting from the Maastricht Treaty central bank independence has become the panacea of the monetary economics and monetary policy approaches. Moreover it is important to analyze and assess the impact of this key issue in central banking upon the inflation performances of the central banks. In this article we provide a qualitative overview upon some recent trends in the central bank independence field: does it still matter? How can be it evaluate and stress itâ€™s impact upon macroeconomic performances, especially upon inflation. As we can observe in the economic literature upon central bank independence there are several approaches to use several indices in order to measure this qualitative and quatitative institutional variables. The most important debate is to eliminate the gap between de jure and de facto independence in order to flatten the measuring of institutional aspects, the legal implication, the constitutional facts and the actual practices of the central banks. Finally, we suggest that according to the new index for measuring central bank independence and inflation targeting index we can evaluate more accurate the degree of the de jure and de facto independence and stress the impact on inflation performance with a case study for ten developed countries and ten developing countries.
Inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty in the Eurozone : Evidence from survey data
Arnold, I.J.M.; Lemmen, J.J.G.
2006-01-01
This paper uses the European Commission's Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers' responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on
Pryor, Frederic L.
2004-01-01
The new comparative economics has focused on individual institutions, rather than the economic system as a whole. This essay argues that economic systems should be defined in terms of clusters of complementary or covarying institutions. A cluster analysis of OECD countries using data on forty different economic institutions shows that four economic systems characterize these nations. Further, these systems have no significant impact on economic growth or inflation, but they do have an importa...
Inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty in the eurozone : Evidence from survey data
Arnold, I.J.M.; Lemmen, J.J.G.
2008-01-01
This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on
News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano
2013-01-01
This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households’ inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll ). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the University...... of Michigan. We highlight a fundamental disconnection among news on inflation, consumers’ frequency of expectation updating, and the accuracy of their expectations. Our evidence provides at best weak support to the epidemiological framework, as most of the consumers who update their expectations do not revise...
Retrofitting models of inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kain, Ben
2009-01-01
I use the method of retrofitting, developed by Dine, Feng and Silverstein, to generate the scale of inflation dynamically, allowing it to be naturally small. This is a general procedure that may be performed on existing models of supersymmetric inflation. I illustrate this idea on two such models, one an example of F-term inflation and the other an example of D-term inflation.
Scale-invariant extended inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holman, R.; Kolb, E.W.; Vadas, S.L.; Wang, Y.
1991-01-01
We propose a model of extended inflation which makes use of the nonlinear realization of scale invariance involving the dilaton coupled to an inflaton field whose potential admits a metastable ground state. The resulting theory resembles the Jordan-Brans-Dicke version of extended inflation. However, quantum effects, in the form of the conformal anomaly, generate a mass for the dilaton, thus allowing our model to evade the problems of the original version of extended inflation. We show that extended inflation can occur for a wide range of inflaton potentials with no fine-tuning of dimensionless parameters required. Furthermore, we also find that it is quite natural for the extended-inflation period to be followed by an epoch of slow-rollover inflation as the dilaton settles down to the minimum of its induced potential
News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations
Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.
2012-01-01
Abstract: This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households' inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll, 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS WHICH AFFECTING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH
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Suparna Wijaya
2017-03-01
Full Text Available High economic growth and sustainable process are main conditions for sustainability of economic country development. They are also become measures of the success of the country's economy. Factors which tested in this study are economic and non-economic factors which impacting economic development. This study has a goal to explain the factors that influence on macroeconomic Indonesia. It used linear regression modeling approach. The analysis result showed that Tax Amnesty, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and interest rate, they jointly can bring effect which amounted to 77.6% on economic growth whereas the remaining 22.4% is the influenced by other variables which not observed in this study. Keywords: tax amnesty, exchange rates, inflation, SBI and economic growth
An intra-household approach to the welfare costs of inflation
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Cysne Rubens Penha
2006-01-01
Full Text Available The literature on the welfare costs of inflation universally assumes that the many-person household can be treated as a single economic agent. This paper explores what the heterogeneity of the agents in a household might imply for such welfare analyses. First, we show that allowing for a one-person or for a many-person transacting technology impacts the money demand function and, therefore, the welfare costs of inflation. Second, more importantly, we derive sufficient conditions under which welfare assessments which depart directly from the knowledge of the money demand function (as in Lucas, 2000 are robust (invariant under the number of persons considered in the household. Third, we show that Bailey?s (1956 partial-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of inflation can be obtained as a first-order approximation of the general-equilibrium welfare measure derived in this paper using a many-person transacting technology.
Attractors, universality, and inflation
Downes, Sean; Dutta, Bhaskar; Sinha, Kuver
2012-11-01
Studies of the initial conditions for inflation have conflicting predictions from exponential suppression to inevitability. At the level of phase space, this conflict arises from the competing intuitions of CPT invariance and thermodynamics. After reviewing this conflict, we enlarge the ensemble beyond phase space to include scalar potential data. We show how this leads to an important contribution from inflection point inflation, enhancing the likelihood of inflation to a power law, 1/Ne3. In the process, we emphasize the attractor dynamics of the gravity-scalar system and the existence of universality classes from inflection point inflation. Finally, we comment on the predictivity of inflation in light of these results.
News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations
Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.
2013-01-01
This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households’ inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the
García-Bellido, J; Montes, X; Garcia-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier
1998-01-01
We show that a large class of two-field models of single-bubble open inflation do not lead to infinite open universes, as it was previously thought, but to an ensemble of very large but finite inflating `islands'. The reason is that the quantum tunneling responsible for the nucleation of the bubble does not occur simultaneously along both field directions and equal-time hypersurfaces in the open universe are not synchronized with equal-density or fixed-field hypersurfaces. The most probable tunneling trajectory corresponds to a zero value of the inflaton field; large values, necessary for the second period of inflation inside the bubble, only arise as localized fluctuations. The interior of each nucleated bubble will contain an infinite number of such inflating regions of comoving size of order $\\gamma^{-1}$, where $\\gamma$ depends on the parameters of the model. Each one of these islands will be a quasi-open universe. Since the volume of the hyperboloid is infinite, inflating islands with all possible values...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jannie Rossouw
2011-08-01
Full Text Available This paper reports a comparison of South African household inflation expectations and inflation credibility surveys undertaken in 2006 and 2008. It tests for possible feed-through between inflation credibility and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the 2006 survey results. The comparison shows that inflation expectations differed between different income groups in both 2006 and 2008. Inflation credibility differed between male and female respondents, but this difference did not feed through to inflation expectations. More periodic survey data will be required for developing final conclusions on the possibility of feed-through effects. To this end the structure of credibility surveys should be reconsidered, as a large percentage of respondents indicated that they ‘don’t know’ whether the historic rate of inflation is an accurate indication of price increases.
ACCOUNTING FOR THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION THE FINANCIAL RESULTS ORGANIZATION
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V. G. Shirobokov
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Summary. Modern foreign political and economic situation in Russia contributes to the development of inflation in our country, which has a negative impact on the financial results of business. In this case, the application of IAS 29 «Financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies» is not possible because of a default specified in the standard criteria for the current situation in the Russian economy. It reduces the reliability of the financial statements. The aim of the work is to improve the methodology for the application of IAS 29 «Financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies» in the current economic environment by identifying existing problems in the application of standards and their solutions. In this paper, using scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, and abstraction it is identified shortcomings in the methodology for the application of IAS 29 and the ways to overcome them. In order to improve the methodology for the application of IAS 29 «Financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies» it is justified materiality level the impact of inflation, which is five per cent; developed criteria for materiality of influence. For accounting for a significant impact of inflation on income (loss of the business it is offered a special accounting mechanism, which includes a separate bookkeeping account 85 «Profit (loss from inflationary price changes» the new sub-account for 90 «Sales» and 91«Other income and expenses», register Help-calculation of the effects of inflation, as well as developed form as part of disclosures in the financial statements. It is concluded that the application of IAS 29 «Financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies» is not always possible, despite the need for taking into account the negative impact of inflation on the financial results of the business entity. The proposed accounting mechanism satisfies this need, which increases the reliability of accounting data and reporting.
Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist? Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability
WenShwo Fang; Stephen M. Miller; Chih-Chuan Yeh
2009-01-01
Using quantile regressions and cross-sectional data from 152 countries, we examine the relationship between inflation and its variability. We consider two measures of inflation – the mean and median – and three different measures of inflation variability – the standard deviation, relative variation, and median deviation. All results from the mean and standard deviation, the mean and relative variation, or the median and the median deviation support both the hypothesis that higher inflation cr...
Nonminimally coupled hybrid inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koh, Seoktae; Minamitsuji, Masato
2011-01-01
We discuss the hybrid inflation model where the inflaton field is nonminimally coupled to gravity. In the Jordan frame, the potential contains φ 4 term as well as terms in the original hybrid inflation model. In our model, inflation can be classified into the type (I) and the type (II). In the type (I), inflation is terminated by the tachyonic instability of the waterfall field, while in the type (II) by the violation of slow-roll conditions. In our model, the reheating takes place only at the true minimum and even in the case (II) finally the tachyonic instability occurs after the termination of inflation. For a negative nonminimal coupling, inflation takes place in the vacuum-dominated region, in the large field region, or near the local minimum/maximum. Inflation in the vacuum-dominated region becomes either the type (I) or (II), resulting in a blue or red spectrum of the curvature perturbations, respectively. Inflation around the local maximum can be either the type (I) or the type (II), which results in the red spectrum of the curvature perturbations, while around the local minimum it must be the type (I), which results in the blue spectrum. In the large field region, to terminate inflation, potential in the Einstein frame must be positively tilted, always resulting in the red spectrum. We then numerically solve the equations of motion to investigate the whole dynamics of inflaton and confirm that the spectrum of curvature perturbations changes from red to blue ones as scales become smaller.
Kenneth H. Thomas
2000-01-01
Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 (CRA) ratings and performance evaluations are the only bank and thrift exam findings disclosed by financial institution regulators. Inflation of CRA ratings has been alleged by community activists for two decades, but there has been no quantification or empirical investigation of grade inflation. Using a unique grade inflation methodology on actual ratings and evaluation data for 1,407 small banks and thrifts under the revised CRA regulations, this paper con...
THE HYBRID APPROACH OF INFLATION TARGETING: WHAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN EMERGING ECONOMY LIKE TUNISIA?
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Hella Guerchi Mehri
2016-07-01
Full Text Available After economic crises happening in many emerging countries, flexible exchange rates became a required theoretical condition helping to target inflation. Many countries stopped using exchange rate as an anchor for monetary policy and started using inflation targeting framework. In emerging countries, monetary authorities work to stabilize the exchange rate because of their “fear of floating”. They are against high volatility of interest rate allowing speculative attacks and causing free fluctuations of their national currency. To avoid uncontrolled market movements, they have to choose between active and public exchange rate management and tight inflation targeting. In the same vein, Central bank of Tunisia follows financial measures linked closely to inflation without focusing especially on monetary aggregates in order to study a possible transition to targeting inflation strategy. It uses a simple Taylor rule where interest rates adjustment are guided by the anticipated inflation deviation from its original target and also by the gap between observed and potential GDP.As an emerging economy with a high degree of financial vulnerability, and facing different shocks, Tunisia should adopt a hybrid rule of inflation targeting in an open economy. This hybrid rule explicitly takes into account the evolution of the exchange rate in the reaction function of the central bank.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Desroche, Mariel; Felder, Gary N.; Kratochvil, Jan M.; Linde, Andrei
2005-01-01
During the last ten years a detailed investigation of preheating was performed for chaotic inflation and for hybrid inflation. However, nonperturbative effects during reheating in the new inflation scenario remained practically unexplored. We investigate preheating in new inflation, using a combination of analytical and numerical methods. We find that the decay of the homogeneous component of the inflaton field and the resulting process of spontaneous symmetry breaking in the simplest models of new inflation usually occurs almost instantly: for the new inflation on the GUT scale it takes only about 5 oscillations of the field distribution. The decay of the homogeneous inflaton field is so efficient because of a combined effect of tachyonic preheating and parametric resonance. At that stage, the homogeneous oscillating inflaton field decays into a collection of waves of the inflaton field, with a typical wavelength of the order of the inverse inflaton mass. This stage usually is followed by a long stage of decay of the inflaton field into other particles, which can be described by the perturbative approach to reheating after inflation. The resulting reheating temperature typically is rather low
Asymmetric dark matter and baryogenesis from pseudoscalar inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cado, Yann; Sabancilar, Eray, E-mail: yann.cado@epfl.ch, E-mail: eray.sabancilar@epfl.ch [Laboratory of Particle Physics and Cosmology, Institute of Physics, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne (Switzerland)
2017-04-01
We show that both the baryon asymmetry of the Universe and the dark matter abundance can be explained within a single framework that makes use of maximally helical hypermagnetic fields produced during pseudoscalar inflation and the chiral anomaly in the Standard Model. We consider a minimal asymmetric dark matter model free from anomalies and constraints. We find that the observed baryon and the dark matter abundances are achieved for a wide range of inflationary parameters, and the dark matter mass ranges between 7–15 GeV . The novelty of our mechanism stems from the fact that the same source of CP violation occurring during inflation explains both baryonic and dark matter in the Universe with two inflationary parameters, hence addressing all the initial condition problems in an economical way.
Inflation persistence and flexible prices
Robert Dittmar; William T. Gavin; Finn E. Kydland
2004-01-01
If the central bank follows an interest rate rule, then inflation is likely to be persistence, even when prices are fully flexible. Any shock, whether persistent or not, may lead to inflation persistence. In equilibrium, the dynamics of inflation are determined by the evolution of the spread between the real interest rate and the central bank’s target. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from ...
Inflation in Nigeria: Possible determinants and remedies to tackle it in Nigeria
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Godly Otto
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The previous Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN had intended to introduce the N5,000.00 currency bill into the Nigerian economy and claimed that such currency bill would help it manage the exchange rate especially against the dollar. This generated a huge outcry from the public especially economists. The major reason was that this introduction would generate inflation and also because the policy ran counter to the cash-less policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria. But to the Central Bank, there was no economic theory to suggest a currency redenomination could cause inflation. This debate once more threw up a need to reexamine the determinants of inflation in Nigeria. Generally, inflation could be cost push or demand pull but what drives the demand or informs cost quite often differ from one economy to another. This study examined the factors responsible for increasing cost of production and spending behaviour in Nigeria. It was able to identify 13 factors that impact on inflation. However, the degree of impact of each factor is left for another study. The study recommends that government should concentrate on providing social infrastructure that would encourage the private sector to invest and expand output, taking advantage of existing unemployed resources. This would help to stem inflation in Nigeria which is usually caused by scarcity
Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Saga, Ikumi; Sumita, Keigo
2018-04-01
We propose a new model of single-field D-term inflation in supergravity, where the inflation is driven by a single modulus field which transforms non-linearly under the U(1) gauge symmetry. One of the notable features of our modulus D-term inflation scenario is that the global U(1) remains unbroken in the vacuum and hence our model is not plagued by the cosmic string problem which can exclude most of the conventional D-term inflation models proposed so far due to the CMB observations.
Racetrack inflation and cosmic strings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brax, P. [CEA-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette (France). CEA/DSM/SPhT, Unite de Recherche Associee au CNRS, Service de Physique Theorique; Bruck, C. van de [Sheffield Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Applied Mathematics; Davis, A.C.; Davis, S.C. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences; Jeannerot, R. [Instituut-Lorentz for Theoretical Physics, Leiden (Netherlands); Postma, M. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)]|[Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica (NIKHEF), Amsterdam (Netherlands)
2008-05-15
We consider the coupling of racetrack inflation to matter fields as realised in the D3/D7 brane system. In particular, we investigate the possibility of cosmic string formation in this system. We find that string formation before or at the onset of racetrack inflation is possible, but they are then inflated away. Furthermore, string formation at the end of inflation is prevented by the presence of the moduli sector. As a consequence, no strings survive racetrack inflation. (orig.)
Racetrack inflation and cosmic strings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brax, P.; Postma, M.
2008-05-01
We consider the coupling of racetrack inflation to matter fields as realised in the D3/D7 brane system. In particular, we investigate the possibility of cosmic string formation in this system. We find that string formation before or at the onset of racetrack inflation is possible, but they are then inflated away. Furthermore, string formation at the end of inflation is prevented by the presence of the moduli sector. As a consequence, no strings survive racetrack inflation. (orig.)
Kähler-driven tribrid inflation
Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David
2012-11-01
We discuss a new class of tribrid inflation models in supergravity, where the shape of the inflaton potential is dominated by effects from the Kähler potential. Tribrid inflation is a variant of hybrid inflation which is particularly suited for connecting inflation with particle physics, since the inflaton can be a D-flat combination of charged fields from the matter sector. In models of tribrid inflation studied so far, the inflaton potential was dominated by either loop corrections or by mixing effects with the waterfall field (as in "pseudosmooth" tribrid inflation). Here we investigate the third possibility, namely that tribrid inflation is dominantly driven by effects from higher-dimensional operators of the Kähler potential. We specify for which superpotential parameters the new regime is realized and show how it can be experimentally distinguished from the other two (loop-driven and "pseudosmooth") regimes.
Inflation and balanced-path growth with alternative payment mechanisms
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal
2005-01-01
Roč. 115, č. 500 (2005), s. 247-270 ISSN 0013-0133 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/05/2172 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation * payment mechanisms Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.440, year: 2005 http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00968.x
Inflation with Fayet-Iliopoulos terms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wieck, Clemens; Winkler, Martin Wolfgang
2014-08-01
Two of the most attractive realizations of inflation in supergravity are based upon the presence of a constant Fayet-Iliopoulos (FI) term. In D-term hybrid inflation it is the FI term itself which sets the energy scale of inflation. Alternatively, the breaking of a U(1) symmetry induced by the FI term can dynamically generate the quadratic potential of chaotic inflation. The purpose of this note is to study the possible UV embedding of these schemes in terms of the 'field-dependent FI term' related to a string modulus field which is stabilized by a non-perturbative superpotential. We find that in settings where the FI term drives inflation, gauge invariance prevents a decoupling of the modulus from the inflationary dynamics. The resulting inflation models generically contain additional dynamical degrees of freedom compared to D-term hybrid inflation. However, the dynamical realization of chaotic inflation can be obtained in complete analogy to the case of a constant FI term. We present a simple string-inspired toy model of this type.
Inflation dynamics in a dollarised economy: The case of Zimbabwe
African Journals Online (AJOL)
kirstam
both internal and external shocks that have an impact on price formation, might not be .... stable economic growth in a dollarised setting can also emerge as a consequence of dollarisation .... As an oil exporter, the higher Ecuadorian oil prices rise, the higher the inflation suffered by ..... dissertation, Lund University. Dallas, H.
Anisotropic inflation from charged scalar fields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Movahed, S.M. Sadegh; Zarei, Moslem
2011-01-01
We consider models of inflation with U(1) gauge fields and charged scalar fields including symmetry breaking potential, chaotic inflation and hybrid inflation. We show that there exist attractor solutions where the anisotropies produced during inflation becomes comparable to the slow-roll parameters. In the models where the inflaton field is a charged scalar field the gauge field becomes highly oscillatory at the end of inflation ending inflation quickly. Furthermore, in charged hybrid inflation the onset of waterfall phase transition at the end of inflation is affected significantly by the evolution of the background gauge field. Rapid oscillations of the gauge field and its coupling to inflaton can have interesting effects on preheating and non-Gaussianities
Ellis, John; Garcia, Marcos A. G.; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V.; Olive, Keith A.
2016-05-01
Supersymmetry is the most natural framework for physics above the TeV scale, and the corresponding framework for early-Universe cosmology, including inflation, is supergravity. No-scale supergravity emerges from generic string compactifications and yields a non-negative potential, and is therefore a plausible framework for constructing models of inflation. No-scale inflation yields naturally predictions similar to those of the Starobinsky model based on R+{R}2 gravity, with a tilted spectrum of scalar perturbations: {n}s∼ 0.96, and small values of the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio r\\lt 0.1, as favoured by Planck and other data on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Detailed measurements of the CMB may provide insights into the embedding of inflation within string theory as well as its links to collider physics.
Ellis, John; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V.; Olive, Keith A.
2016-01-01
Supersymmetry is the most natural framework for physics above the TeV scale, and the corresponding framework for early-Universe cosmology, including inflation, is supergravity. No-scale supergravity emerges from generic string compactifications and yields a non-negative potential, and is therefore a plausible framework for constructing models of inflation. No-scale inflation yields naturally predictions similar to those of the Starobinsky model based on $R + R^2$ gravity, with a tilted spectrum of scalar perturbations: $n_s \\sim 0.96$, and small values of the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r < 0.1$, as favoured by Planck and other data on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Detailed measurements of the CMB may provide insights into the embedding of inflation within string theory as well as its links to collider physics.
Extended inflation with induced gravity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Accetta, F.S.; Trester, J.J.; Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520)
1989-01-01
We consider a recently proposed extended model of inflation which improves upon the original old inflation scenario by achieving a graceful exit from the false-vacuum phase. In this paper extended inflation is generalized to include a potential V(phi) for the Brans-Dicke-type field phi. We find that whereas a graceful exit can still be had, the inclusion of a potential places constraints on the percolation time scale for exiting the inflationary phase. Additional constraints on V(phi) and the false-vacuum energy density rho /sub F/ from density and gravitational-wave perturbations are discussed. For initially small values of phi the false vacuum undergoes power-law inflation, while for initially large values of phi the expansion is exponential. Within true-vacuum regions slow-rolling inflation can occur. As a result, this model generically leads to multiple episodes of inflation. We discuss the significance these multiple episodes of inflation may have on the formation of large-scale structure and the production of voids
Inflation and unemployment in South Africa: Is the Phillips curve still ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The article addresses a significant shortcoming in the existing South African literature by directly testing the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate, instead of relying on traditional approximations of this relationship through variables such as the output gap or economic growth which might have ...
Quantum fluctuations and inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bardeen, J.M.; Bublik, G.J.
1986-05-01
We study the effect of quantum fluctuations on the roll-down rate of the inflation field in a semiclassical approximation; this is done by treating the inflation field as a classical random field. The quantum fluctuations are simulated by a noise term in the equation of motion. We consider two different inflationary scenarios (new and chaotic inflation) and find that the roll-down rate of the median value of the inflation field is increased by the quantum fluctuations. Non-linear effects may become important in the later stages of the inflationary regime. 8 refs., 2 figs
Quantum fluctuations and inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bardeen, J.M.; Bublik, G.J.
1987-01-01
The authors study the effect of quantum fluctuations on the roll-down rate of the inflation field in a semiclassical approximation; this is done by treating the inflation field as a classical random field. The quantum fluctuations are simulated by a noise term in the equation of motion. Two different inflationary scenarios (new and chaotic inflation) are considered and it is found that the roll-down rate of the median value of the inflation field is increased by the quantum fluctuations. Non-linear effects may become important in the later stages of the inflationary regime. (author)
IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY OF FOOD CROPS AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ifeoluwa Akin Babalola
2016-08-01
Full Text Available Prices of food crops in Nigeria tend to exhibit similar trend with inflation. The study therefore established quantitatively relationships among agricultural policy, relative price variability (RPV of food crops and inflation in Nigeria. Data for the study includes annual producer prices (nominal and output of food crops and annual inflation rate obtained from the publications of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, Food and Agricultural Organisation and Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research covering the period of 1970-2009. Analytical tools used were RPV index and Error Correction Method (ECM. The results showed that the variables are stationary at their levels. As inflation increases, RPV of food crops also increases both in short run (0.0002 and the long run (0.0310. Civilian Post-Structural Adjustment Period Policies (CPSAP caused a significant reduction in inflation and consequently reduced the RPV of food crops in the long run. There is a need for policies that will buffer the food crop sub-sector from the effects of inflation. Policies that reduce the rate of inflation and minimise RPV among food crops are needed. Effective management of inefficiencies and misallocation of resources in the sub-sector should be explored.
Core inflation indicators for Saudi Arabia
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Alkhareif Ryadh M.
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper constructs and analyzes core inflation indicators for Saudi Arabia for the period of March 2012 to May 2014 using two alternative approaches: the exclusion method (ex food and housing/rent and the statistical method. The findings of the analysis suggest that the ex food and housing/ rent inflation is more volatile than the overall CPI inflation over the sample period. In contrast, the statistical core inflation is relatively more stable and less volatile. Moreover, the ex food and housing/rent inflation is only weakly correlated with headline inflation, whereas the statistical core inflation exhibits a stronger correlation. This combination of lower volatility and higher correlation with headline inflation makes the statistical method a much better choice for policymakers. From a monetary policy standpoint, using a bundle of core inflation measures, including both properly constructed exclusion and statistical methods, is more desirable, especially when variation across measures is widespread, as is the case in Saudi Arabia.
What Drives China's Food-Price Inflation and How does It Affect the Aggregate Inflation?
Wenlang Zhang; Daniel Law
2010-01-01
It is typically argued that China's food-price inflation has been mainly driven by supply-side shocks including natural disasters. Our research, however, shows that demand pressures have played a more important role from a medium-term perspective. This suggests surging food prices may call for policy reactions even if non-food-price inflation is tame. Meanwhile, we find food-price inflation has not generated significant second-round effects on non-food-price inflation. In particular, while fo...
THE ACTUAL IMPLICATIONS OF INFLATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Murăriţa Ilie
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The authors have started from the idea that inflationary phenomenon is a companion, the cause and the effect of the globalization of poverty in the broader context of world economy globalization. Therefore, starting from a common definition of inflation, the first objective was to identify causal relationships that singularize contemporary inflationary process. After that, attention was focused on the implications of inflation in the current stage, bearing in mind that monetary financial theory and practice are operating with perfectly anticipated inflation or imperfectly anticipated inflation. Inflation has great implications on the long-term contracts and wage contracts.
Feliciano, Marciana; Bezerra, Adriana Falangola Benjamin; Santo, Antônio Carlos Gomes do Espírito
2017-06-01
This paper analyzes the implications of municipal budget revenue growth and the monetary policy's inflation rates goals in the availability of public health resources of municipalities. This is a descriptive, exploratory, quantitative, retrospective and longitudinal cross-sectional study covering the period 2002-2011. We analyzed health financing and expenditure variables in the municipalities of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, describing the trend and the relationship between them. Data showed the growth of the variables and trend towards homogeneity. The exception was for the participation of Intergovernmental Transfers in the Total Health Expenditure of the Municipality. We found a significant correlation between Budget Revenue per capita and Health Expenditure per capita and a strong significant negative correlation between Inflation Rate, Budget Revenue per capita and Health Expenditure per capita. We concluded that increased health expenditure is due more to higher municipal tax revenue than to increased transfers that, in relative terms, did not increase. The strong inverse relationship between inflation rate and the Financing and Expenditure variables show that the monetary policy's inflation goals have restricted health financing to municipalities.
Alchemical inflation: inflaton turns into Higgs
Nakayama, Kazunori; Takahashi, Fuminobu
2012-11-01
We propose a new inflation model in which a gauge singlet inflaton turns into the Higgs condensate after inflation. The inflationary path is characterized by a moduli space of supersymmetric vacua spanned by the inflaton and Higgs field. The inflation energy scale is related to the soft supersymmetry breaking, and the Hubble parameter during inflation is smaller than the gravitino mass. The initial condition for the successful inflation is naturally realized by the pre-inflation in which the Higgs plays a role of the waterfall field.
Alchemical inflation: inflaton turns into Higgs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nakayama, Kazunori; Takahashi, Fuminobu
2012-01-01
We propose a new inflation model in which a gauge singlet inflaton turns into the Higgs condensate after inflation. The inflationary path is characterized by a moduli space of supersymmetric vacua spanned by the inflaton and Higgs field. The inflation energy scale is related to the soft supersymmetry breaking, and the Hubble parameter during inflation is smaller than the gravitino mass. The initial condition for the successful inflation is naturally realized by the pre-inflation in which the Higgs plays a role of the waterfall field
Iran's Economic Conditions: U.S. Policy Issues
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Ilias, Shayerah
2009-01-01
.... Since 2000, Iran has enjoyed broad-based economic growth. However, strong economic performance has been hindered by high levels of inflation and unemployment and low levels of foreign investment...
Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning
Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit
2012-01-01
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...
García-Bellido, J
1998-01-01
We propose a new model of inflation based on the soft-breaking of N=2 supersymmetric SU(2) Yang-Mills theory. The advantage of such a model is the fact that we can write an exact expression for the effective scalar potential, including non-perturbative effects, which preserves the analyticity and duality properties of the Seiberg-Witten solution. We find that the scalar condensate that plays the role of the inflaton can drive a long period of cosmological expansion, produce the right amount of temperature anisotropies in the microwave background, and end inflation when the monopole acquires a vacuum expectation value. Duality properties relate the weak coupling Higgs region where inflation takes place with the strong coupling monopole region, where reheating occurs, creating particles corresponding to the light degrees of freedom in the true vacuum.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vishniac, E.T.
1987-01-01
We examine the compatibility of inflation with the cosmic string theory for galaxy formation. There is a general conflict between having sufficient string tension to effect galaxy formation, and reheating after inflation to a high enough temperature that strings may form in a thermal phase transition. To escape this conflict, we propose a class of models where the inflation is coupled to the string-producing field. The strings are formed late in inflation as the inflaton rolls towards its zero-temperature value. A large subset of these models have a novel large-scale distribution of galaxies that is fractal, displays biasing without dynamics or feedback mechanisms, and contains voids. (orig.)
Dual-chamber inflatable oil boom
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blair, R.M.; Tedeschi, E.T.
1993-01-01
An elongated floating material containment boom section is described having a normally vertical ballasted skirt depending from flotation means, and convertible from a flattened collapsed condition to a deployable condition wherein buoyancy chamber means extending along the upper edge of said skirt are inflated to expanded buoyant configuration, including: a gas-impervious sleeve extending along the upper edge of said normally vertical skirt forming a first outer collapsible and inflatable flotation chamber, a first inflation valve connecting the interior of said sleeve with the ambient atmosphere, through which gas under pressure may be introduced into said sleeve to inflate said first buoyant outer flotation chamber, elongated gas-impervious tube means positioned inside said outer flotation chamber and forming second collapsible and inflatable internal flotation bladder chamber means, second inflation valve means connecting the interior of said bladder means through said outer flotation chamber to the ambient atmosphere through which gas under pressure may be introduced into said bladder means to inflate it forming said second flotation chamber means inside said outer flotation chamber
Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the CEE countries
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nedeljković Milan
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the time evolution in the degree and level of anchoring of inflation expectations in four Central and Eastern European inflation targeting countries. The results suggest that the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations increased gradually in all countries over the last decade, while the level of implied inflation targets moved towards the official target. The extent of anchoring increased more strongly in the first years following the IT adoption and more gradually over the later period. We also find that smooth changes of the official target had a positive impact on anchoring. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 47028: Advancing Serbia’s Competitiveness in the Process of EU Accession
Problems of Overcoming Market Failures in the Context of Economic Crisis in the Euro Area
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexandra Y. Pluiko
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The article analyses the manifestations of a market failure problem revealed during the economic crisis in the euro area, namely business cycles, market inability to ensure money circulation and avoid inflation. It is shown that the cyclicity of economic development has revealed in various degrees of economic contraction and different rates of its recovery. These differences have been exacerbated by the new procyclical factors emerged from the transition to a single currency. As for money circulation the crisis has almost no impact on the single currency functioning: the euro has maintained its position on the world market and properly performed money functions in the domestic. The goal to achieve economic development without inflation in the euro area generally has been solved successfully by the European Central Bank (ECB. However, due to the fact that the ECB in its monetary policy does not pay sufficient attention to the increased inflation in small and relatively poor countries, the crisis has been more acute in them than in large countries with low inflation. The goals of ensuring money circulation and avoiding inflation can be settled more effectively in the euro area in case of more tight coherence in economic policy and strengthening of supranational mechanisms of economic governance.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zavala, I.
2008-01-01
A new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry is proposed. The Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, the flavons, are natural inflaton candidates or waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possible inflation models, all linked to the physics of flavour, with several interesting cosmological implications.
Topological defects in extended inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Copeland, E.J.; Kolb, E.W.; Chicago Univ., IL; Liddle, A.R.
1990-04-01
We consider the production of topological defects, especially cosmic strings, in extended inflation models. In extended inflation, the Universe passes through a first-order phase transition via bubble percolation, which naturally allows defects to form at the end of inflation. The correlation length, which determines the number density of the defects, is related to the mean size of bubbles when they collide. This mechanism allows a natural combination of inflation and large-scale structure via cosmic strings. 18 refs
Topological defects in extended inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Copeland, E.J.; Kolb, E.W.; Liddle, A.R.
1990-01-01
We consider the production of topological defects, especially cosmic strings, in extended-inflation models. In extended inflation, the Universe passes through a first-order phase transition via bubble percolation, which naturally allows defects to form at the end of inflation. The correlation length, which determines the number density of the defects, is related to the mean size of the bubbles when they collide. This mechanism allows a natural combination of inflation and large-scale structure via cosmic strings
Accidental inflation from Kaehler uplifting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens; Jing, Shenglin; Toronto Univ., ON
2013-09-01
We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Kaehler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation'' (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running α -5 . The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.
Giudice, Gian F
2011-01-01
We consider a simple extension of the Standard Model Higgs inflation with one new real scalar field which preserves unitarity up to the Planck scale. The new scalar field (called sigma) completes in the ultraviolet the theory of Higgs inflation by linearizing the Higgs kinetic term in the Einstein frame, just as the non-linear sigma model is unitarized into its linear version. The unitarity cutoff of the effective theory, obtained by integrating out the sigma field, varies with the background value of the Higgs field. In our setup, both the Higgs field and the sigma field participate in the inflationary dynamics, following the flat direction of the potential. We obtain the same slow-roll parameters and spectral index as in the original Higgs inflation but we find that the Hubble rate during inflation depends not only on the Higgs self-coupling, but also on the unknown couplings of the sigma field.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Giudice, Gian F.; Lee, Hyun Min
2011-01-01
We consider a simple extension of the Standard Model Higgs inflation with one new real scalar field which preserves unitarity up to the Planck scale. The new scalar field (called sigma) completes in the ultraviolet the theory of Higgs inflation by linearizing the Higgs kinetic term in the Einstein frame, just as the non-linear sigma model is unitarized into its linear version. The unitarity cutoff of the effective theory, obtained by integrating out the sigma field, varies with the background value of the Higgs field. In our setup, both the Higgs field and the sigma field participate in the inflationary dynamics, following the flat direction of the potential. We obtain the same slow-roll parameters and spectral index as in the original Higgs inflation but we find that the Hubble rate during inflation depends not only on the Higgs self-coupling, but also on the unknown couplings of the sigma field.
PROTECTION FROM INFLATION BY INVESTING IN REAL ESTATES, ALBANIAN CASE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dorina KRIPA
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Nowadays investing in Real Estates is one of the main investing alternatives. It has spread fast in all the international markets, and has evolved in other indirect tools of investing, based on the investors’ demands and a country’s economic situation. Investing in Real Estates has become an attractive alternative because it offers protection from Inflation and also diversification. Therefore, the increase in these assets’ prices, and the increase in Inflation at the same time, provides the investor with high rate of returns from his portfolio. Even the periodic income from the rent, reflects the changes in Inflation. As a result, reviewing the literature, we conclude that Real Estates are protective in inflationist periods. The income from Real Estates tends to increase faster in inflationist environments, allowing the investor to keep real rates of returns. Real Estates have always behaved different from bonds, options and stocks. Real Estates have their particular life cycle, which is distinguished by the boom and bust periods, in particular The Commercial Real Estate in the 80’ and The Residential Real Estate in the 2008 crisis. Usually Real Estates have a low correlation with other classes of assets. This makes investors invest more in Real Estates, and now it is normal for an investor with passive or active strategy to own more than one Real Estate for profit intentions. This topic has been chosen in order to understand in details the relationship between Real Estates and Inflation in Albania. To explain this relationship, it has been used the model of a linear regression. It has been identified The House Price Index (a representative of Real Estates in Albania as a dependent variable and Inflation as an independent variable. From this model, we conclude that there is a positive and linear relationship between The Price Index and Inflation. In conclusion, if the economy has Inflation and the GDP Deflator increases by 1 %, then The
Extended inflation with nonminimally coupled inflation field
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Panchapakesan, N.; Sethi, S.K.
1992-01-01
In this paper, an extended inflation model, in which the inflation field is nonminimally coupled to the gravity, is discussed. It is shown that the nucleation rate of bubbles, during a phase transition in the inflaton field, can increase as the transition proceeds for a wide range of parameters of the inflaton potential. The bounce action for three possible cases - the strong gravity regime, the thick-walled Coleman-DeLuccia bubbles and the thin-walled bubbles - is evaluated. The resulting bubble distribution for all the cases is shown to be in conformity with cosmological constraints for ω < 500
Tribrid Inflation in Supergravity
Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Kostka, Philipp M.
We propose a novel class of F-term hybrid inflation models in supergravity (SUGRA) where the η-problem is resolved using either a Heisenberg symmetry or a shift symmetry of the Kähler potential. In addition to the inflaton and the waterfall field, this class (referred to as tribrid inflation) contains a third "driving" field which contributes the large vacuum energy during inflation by its F-term. In contrast to the "standard" hybrid scenario, it has several attractive features due to the property of vanishing inflationary superpotential (Winf = 0) during inflation. Quantum corrections induced by symmetry breaking terms in the superpotential generate a slope of the potential and lead to a spectral tilt consistent with recent WMAP observations.
The influence of the tire inflation on pull properties of agriculture tractors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jakub Katrenčík
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Agricultural tractors are robust and versatile machines, which must comply with the basic requirements of users under various conditions. The main requirements include economical and reliable operation and high performance. Fuel economy could be improved using multiple methods, for example a well trained operator, adequate farming conditions and optimal tire inflation. Tractor tires transmit engine power to the surface and as such they are crucial to tractor operation. In the first part of the field measurement, all tires were inflated to 180kPa, while in the second part of the field measurements the tire pressure was set to 75kPa in front tires and to 65 kPa in rear tires. The results of the field measurement of the John Deere 6920S tractor with different tire inflation shows that pull performance increased by 9.9% and wheel slip decreased by 9.7%.
Stochastic effects in hybrid inflation
Martin, Jérôme; Vennin, Vincent
2012-02-01
Hybrid inflation is a two-field model where inflation ends due to an instability. In the neighborhood of the instability point, the potential is very flat and the quantum fluctuations dominate over the classical motion of the inflaton and waterfall fields. In this article, we study this regime in the framework of stochastic inflation. We numerically solve the two coupled Langevin equations controlling the evolution of the fields and compute the probability distributions of the total number of e-folds and of the inflation exit point. Then, we discuss the physical consequences of our results, in particular, the question of how the quantum diffusion can affect the observable predictions of hybrid inflation.
B. HEITZ
2005-01-01
This paper seeks to apply the general framework of Markov-switching models to inflation in France and in the USA. We propose a model where inflation can, alternatively, follow two regimes: the first one, where inflation is stationary, is interpreted as a situation where there exists a credible inflation target, even if it is not explicit; the second one where inflation is integrated. Moreover, observing that the two oil shocks were followed by accelerating inflation periods, we allow dependen...
Air-Inflated Fabric Structures
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Cavallaro, Paul V; Sadegh, Ali M
2006-01-01
.... Examples include air ships, weather balloons, inflatable antennas and radomes, temporary shelters, pneumatic muscles and actuators, inflatable boats, temporary bridging, and energy absorbers such as automotive air bags...
THE INFLATION IMPACT OF SELECTED EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERS ON POLISH INFLATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jarosław Czaja
2012-06-01
Full Text Available The article aims at determining the inflation influence between Poland and selected EU member states. Although for some time the general inflation level in those countries was definitely controllable, the problem seems to be returning. That is why in this article, using the model of Vector AutoRegression (VAR and Granger causality test, we are attempting to determine inflation influences on Poland. The study confirmed the impact of the selected countries on Polish inflation, expressed the general HICP index. However, in the case of Germany, the method has not proved the existence of such interactions. For this reason, it is made an attempt to clarify the reasons for non-compliance findings with data showing Germany as a Polish main trading partner for more than two decades. The authors try to show that lack of influence can be seen in the excessive generality of the main HICP index and predict that the chosen method confirm the effect of foreign trade indices in the HICP.
Supersymmetric Majoron inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
King, Stephen F.; Ludl, Patrick Otto [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton,Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)
2017-03-31
We propose supersymmetric Majoron inflation in which the Majoron field Φ responsible for generating right-handed neutrino masses may also be suitable for giving low scale “hilltop” inflation, with a discrete lepton number ℤ{sub N} spontaneously broken at the end of inflation, while avoiding the domain wall problem. In the framework of non-minimal supergravity, we show that a successful spectral index can result with small running together with small tensor modes. We show that a range of heaviest right-handed neutrino masses can be generated, m{sub N}∼10{sup 1}−10{sup 16} GeV, consistent with the constraints from reheating and domain walls.
Pre-inflation physics and scalar perturbations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirai, Shiro
2005-01-01
The effect of pre-inflation physics on the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is investigated. Considering various pre-inflation models with radiation-dominated or matter-dominated periods before inflation, the power spectra of curvature perturbations for large scales are calculated, and the spectral index and running spectral index are derived. It is shown that pre-inflation models in which the length of inflation is near 60 e-folds may reproduce some key properties implied by the Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, Yang; Piao, Yun-Song [College of Physical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Si, Zong-Guo, E-mail: liuyangbyf@mail.sdu.edu.cn, E-mail: yspiao@gucas.ac.cn, E-mail: zgsi@sdu.edu.cn [Department of Physics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China)
2009-05-15
In this paper, we revisit the idea of locked inflation, which does not require a potential satisfying the normal slow-roll condition, but suffers from the problems associated with ''saddle inflation''. We propose a scenario based on locked inflation, however, with an alternative evolution mechanism of the ''waterfall field'' {phi}. Instead of rolling down along the potential, the {phi} field will tunnel to end the inflation stage like in old inflation, by which the saddle inflation could be avoided. Further, we study a cascade of old locked inflation, which can be motivated by the string landscape. Our model is based on the consideration of making locked inflation feasible so as to give a working model without slow roll; It also can be seen as an effort to embed the old inflation in string landscape.
AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC REVIEW
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Dr Kazungu
African Journal of Economic Review, Volume VI, Issue I, January 2018. 33. Analyzing .... Previous analysis of inflation in Nigeria as a macroeconomic variable have focused at its impact ..... International Journal of Finance and Economics 2, 225-235. ... Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences Volume 1,.
Estimating Venezuelas Latent Inflation
Juan Carlos Bencomo; Hugo J. Montesinos; Hugo M. Montesinos; Jose Roberto Rondo
2011-01-01
Percent variation of the consumer price index (CPI) is the inflation indicator most widely used. This indicator, however, has some drawbacks. In addition to measurement errors of the CPI, there is a problem of incongruence between the definition of inflation as a sustained and generalized increase of prices and the traditional measure associated with the CPI. We use data from 1991 to 2005 to estimate a complementary indicator for Venezuela, the highest inflation country in Latin America. Late...
12 CFR 19.240 - Inflation adjustments.
2010-01-01
... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation adjustments. 19.240 Section 19.240... PROCEDURE Civil Money Penalty Inflation Adjustments § 19.240 Inflation adjustments. (a) The maximum amount... Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 (28 U.S.C. 2461 note) as follows: ER10NO08.001 (b) The...
Mutated hilltop inflation revisited
Pal, Barun Kumar
2018-05-01
In this work we re-investigate pros and cons of mutated hilltop inflation. Applying Hamilton-Jacobi formalism we solve inflationary dynamics and find that inflation goes on along the {W}_{-1} branch of the Lambert function. Depending on the model parameter mutated hilltop model renders two types of inflationary solutions: one corresponds to small inflaton excursion during observable inflation and the other describes large field inflation. The inflationary observables from curvature perturbation are in tune with the current data for a wide range of the model parameter. The small field branch predicts negligible amount of tensor to scalar ratio r˜ O(10^{-4}), while the large field sector is capable of generating high amplitude for tensor perturbations, r˜ O(10^{-1}). Also, the spectral index is almost independent of the model parameter along with a very small negative amount of scalar running. Finally we find that the mutated hilltop inflation closely resembles the α -attractor class of inflationary models in the limit of α φ ≫ 1.
Is non-minimal inflation eternal?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Feng, Chao-Jun; Li, Xin-Zhou
2010-01-01
The possibility that the non-minimal coupling inflation could be eternal is investigated. We calculate the quantum fluctuation of the inflaton in a Hubble time and find that it has the same value as that in the minimal case in the slow-roll limit. Armed with this result, we have studied some concrete non-minimal inflationary models including the chaotic inflation and the natural inflation, in which the inflaton is non-minimally coupled to the gravity. We find that the non-minimal coupling inflation could be eternal in some parameter spaces.
Global economic crisis and Africa's economic performance | Ekpo ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
It is generally acknowledged that African economies were able to withstand the 2007/2008 global economic crisis because of better macroeconomic management. Macroeconomic fundamentals, such as growth, rate of inflation and deficit/GDP ratio, among others, appear to move in the right direction during and after the ...
Consumers´opinion of inflation bias due to quality improvements
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Hanousek, Jan; Filer, R. K.
2004-01-01
Roč. 53, č. 1 (2004), s. 235-254 ISSN 0013-0079 R&D Projects: GA MŠk ME 595 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : consumers ´opinion * inflation bias * quality improvements Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.373, year: 2004 http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=14886614&site=ehost-live
Quantum Barro-Gordon game in monetary economics
Samadi, Ali Hussein; Montakhab, Afshin; Marzban, Hussein; Owjimehr, Sakine
2018-01-01
Classical game theory addresses decision problems in multi-agent environment where one rational agent's decision affects other agents' payoffs. Game theory has widespread application in economic, social and biological sciences. In recent years quantum versions of classical games have been proposed and studied. In this paper, we consider a quantum version of the classical Barro-Gordon game which captures the problem of time inconsistency in monetary economics. Such time inconsistency refers to the temptation of weak policy maker to implement high inflation when the public expects low inflation. The inconsistency arises when the public punishes the weak policy maker in the next cycle. We first present a quantum version of the Barro-Gordon game. Next, we show that in a particular case of the quantum game, time-consistent Nash equilibrium could be achieved when public expects low inflation, thus resolving the game.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Freivogel, Ben; /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /LBL, Berkeley; Hubeny, Veronika E.; /LBL, Berkeley /Durham U., Dept. of Math.; Maloney, Alexander; /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.; Myers, Rob; /Perimeter Inst. Theor. Phys. /Waterloo U.; Rangamani, Mukund; /LBL, Berkeley /Durham U., Dept. of Math.; Shenker, Stephen; /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.
2005-10-07
We study the realization of inflation within the AdS/CFT correspondence. We assume the existence of a string landscape containing at least one stable AdS vacuum and a (nearby) metastable de Sitter state. Standard arguments imply that the bulk physics in the vicinity of the AdS minimum is described by a boundary CFT. We argue that large enough bubbles of the dS phase, including those able to inflate, are described by mixed states in the CFT. Inflating degrees of freedom are traced over and do not appear explicitly in the boundary description. They nevertheless leave a distinct imprint on the mixed state. Analytic continuation allows us, in principle, to recover a large amount of nonperturbatively defined information about the inflating regime. Our work also shows that no scattering process can create an inflating region, even by quantum tunneling, since a pure state can never evolve into a mixed state under unitary evolution.We study the realization of inflation within the AdS/CFT correspondence. We assume the existence of a string landscape containing at least one stable AdS vacuum and a (nearby) metastable de Sitter state. Standard arguments imply that the bulk physics in the vicinity of the AdS minimum is described by a boundary CFT. We argue that large enough bubbles of the dS phase, including those able to inflate, are described by mixed states in the CFT. Inflating degrees of freedom are traced over and do not appear explicitly in the boundary description. They nevertheless leave a distinct imprint on the mixed state. Analytic continuation allows us, in principle, to recover a large amount of nonperturbatively defined information about the inflating regime. Our work also shows that no scattering process can create an inflating region, even by quantum tunneling, since a pure state can never evolve into a mixed state under unitary evolution.
Chuss, David
2010-01-01
The Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) has provided a wealth of information about the history and physics of the early Universe. Much progress has been made on uncovering the emerging Standard Model of Cosmology by such experiments as COBE and WMAP, and ESA's Planck Surveyor will likely increase our knowledge even more. Despite the success of this model, mysteries remain. Currently understood physics does not offer a compelling explanation for the homogeneity, flatness, and the origin of structure in the Universe. Cosmic Inflation, a brief epoch of exponential expansion, has been posted to explain these observations. If inflation is a reality, it is expected to produce a background spectrum of gravitational waves that will leave a small polarized imprint on the CMB. Discovery of this signal would give the first direct evidence for inflation and provide a window into physics at scales beyond those accessible to terrestrial particle accelerators. I will briefly review aspects of the Standard Model of Cosmology and discuss our current efforts to design and deploy experiments to measure the polarization of the CMB with the precision required to test inflation.
The cost of nuclear electricity: economic values and political calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stauffer, T.
1985-01-01
The subject is covered in sections: introduction (monetary inflation; US-style rate-base formula; cost escalation); electricity generation costs (rate-base calculation formula; regulatory versus economic costs; inflationary case; cost-of-service rates versus inflation; first year electricity costs); rate shock (A. comparison with oil; B. nuclear case; C. comparison with coal/nuclear system; vintaged electricity costs versus growth and inflation); conclusions. (U.K.)
Inflation and quantum cosmology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Linde, A.
1991-01-01
In this article a review of the present status of inflationary cosmology is given. We start with a discussion of the simplest version of the chaotic inflation scenario. Then we discuss some recent develoments in the inflationary cosmology, including the theory of a self-reproducing inflationary universe (eternal chaotic inflation). We do it with the help of stochastic approach to inflation. The results obtained within this approach are compared with the results obtained in the context of Euclidean quantum cosmology. (WL)
Microwave background anisotropies in quasiopen inflation
García-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier
1999-10-01
Quasiopenness seems to be generic to multifield models of single-bubble open inflation. Instead of producing infinite open universes, these models actually produce an ensemble of very large but finite inflating islands. In this paper we study the possible constraints from CMB anisotropies on existing models of open inflation. The effect of supercurvature anisotropies combined with the quasiopenness of the inflating regions make some models incompatible with observations, and severely reduces the parameter space of others. Supernatural open inflation and the uncoupled two-field model seem to be ruled out due to these constraints for values of Ω0<~0.98. Others, such as the open hybrid inflation model with suitable parameters for the slow roll potential can be made compatible with observations.
The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radukić Snežana
2015-05-01
Full Text Available In the Republic of Serbia, food accounts for a significant share in the consumer price index through which the inflation is statistically expressed. Therefore, in considerations of the basic factors of increase in the general price level, a special emphasis is placed on the specific features of the market of agricultural-food products. The aim of this research is to peruse the effect of the characteristics of the food market in Serbia on the inflation rate. High volatility of food prices is present because of the instability of this market, mainly due to seasonal fluctuations of supply and the effect of natural factors. Bearing in mind that the increase in food prices is the main determinant of the increase in the inflation rate, the indirect state control is very important so as to maintain price stability. Special importance is attached to the following instruments of economic policy: commodity reserves, storage policy, and fiscal and foreign trade policy.
Tribrid Inflation in Supergravity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Kostka, Philipp M.
2010-01-01
We propose a novel class of F-term hybrid inflation models in supergravity (SUGRA) where the η-problem is resolved using either a Heisenberg symmetry or a shift symmetry of the Kaehler potential. In addition to the inflaton and the waterfall field, this class (referred to as tribrid inflation) contains a third 'driving' field which contributes the large vacuum energy during inflation by its F-term. In contrast to the 'standard' hybrid scenario, it has several attractive features due to the property of vanishing inflationary superpotential (W inf = 0) during inflation. While the symmetries of the Kaehler potential ensure a flat inflaton potential at tree-level, quantum corrections induced by symmetry breaking terms in the superpotential generate a slope of the potential and lead to a spectral tilt consistent with recent WMAP observations.
Accidental inflation from Kaehler uplifting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Jing, Shenglin [Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Canadian Inst. for Theoretical Astrophysics; Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Astronomy and Astrophysics
2013-09-15
We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Kaehler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation'' (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running {alpha}<{proportional_to}0.012 and enhanced tensor-to-scalar ratio r{proportional_to}10{sup -5}. The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.
Initial conditions for chaotic inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brandenberger, R.; Kung, J.; Feldman, H.
1991-01-01
In contrast to many other inflationary Universe models, chaotic inflation does not depend on fine tuning initial conditions. Within the context of linear perturbation theory, it is shown that chaotic inflation is stable towards both metric and matter perturbations. Neglecting gravitational perturbations, it is shown that chaotic inflation is an attractor in initial condition space. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Davis, R.L.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge
1989-01-01
Without inflation the energy density of relic axions in a Robertson-Walker universe arises not from coherent oscillations of a zero-momentum mode but from radiative decay of axion strings. An estimate of the upper bound on the PQ scale coming from these axions is in conflict with the lower bound from SN1987a. We present analytical and numerical evidence supporting this estimate. If true, then the axion needs inflation. With inflation the axion is safe, but the motivation for axion search experiments is weakened. (orig.)
Stability of compactification during inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amendola, L.; Litterio, M.; Occhionero, F.; Kolb, E.W.
1990-03-01
The possibility that inflation may trigger an instability in compactification of extra spatial dimensions is considered. In old, new, or extended inflation, the false vacuum energy results in a semiclassical instability in which the scalar field representing the radius of the extra dimensions may tunnel through a potential barrier leading to an expansion of the internal space. In chaotic inflation, if the initial value of the scalar field responsible for inflation is large enough, the internal space becomes classically unstable to ever increasing expansion. Restrictions on inflationary models necessary to keep the extra dimensions small are discussed. 15 refs., 5 figs
Higgs-Palatini inflation and unitarity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bauer, Florian; Demir, Durmus A.
2011-01-01
In the Higgs inflation scenario the Higgs field is strongly coupled to the Ricci scalar in order to drive primordial inflation. However, in its original form in pure metric formulation of gravity, the ultraviolet (UV) cutoff of the Higgs interactions and the Hubble rate are of the same magnitude, and this makes the whole inflationary evolution dependent of the unknown UV completion of the Higgs sector. This problem, the unitarity violation, plagues the Higgs inflation scenario. In this Letter we show that, in the Palatini formulation of gravitation, Higgs inflation does not suffer from unitarity violation since the UV cutoff lies parametrically much higher than the Hubble rate so that unknown UV physics does not disrupt the inflationary dynamics. Higgs-Palatini inflation, as we call it, is, therefore, UV-safe, minimal and endowed with predictive power.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Antipov Valerij Ivanovich
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The article gives a modern interpretation of the Fisher formula, the calculated velocity of circulation of money supply M2 in the interval 1995-2013 and forecast of its changes until 2030 when hypotheses about the rate of inflation and GDP. Points to the fallacy of its direct use to control inflation and money supply. For a more detailed understanding of the inflationary process proposes a new frequency formula and the explanation of the situation with the regulation of prices in the economy.
Staggered multi-field inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Battefeld, Diana; Battefeld, Thorsten; Davis, Anne-Christine
2008-01-01
We investigate multi-field inflationary scenarios with fields that drop out of the model in a staggered fashion. This feature is natural in certain multi-field inflationary setups within string theory; for instance, it can manifest itself when fields are related to tachyons that condense, or inter-brane distances that become meaningless when branes annihilate. Considering a separable potential, and promoting the number of fields to a smooth time dependent function, we derive the formalism to deal with these models at the background and perturbed level, providing general expressions for the scalar spectral index and the running. We recover known results of e.g. a dynamically relaxing cosmological constant in the appropriate limits. We further show that isocurvature perturbations are suppressed during inflation, and so perturbations are adiabatic and nearly Gaussian. The resulting setup might be interpreted as a novel type of warm inflation, readily implemented within string theory and without many of the shortcomings associated with warm inflation. To exemplify the applicability of the formalism we consider three concrete models: assisted inflation with exponential potentials as a simple toy model (a graceful exit becomes possible), inflation from multiple tachyons (a constant decay rate of the number of fields and negligible slow roll contributions turns out to be in good agreement with observations) and inflation from multiple M5-branes within M-theory (a narrow stacking of branes yields a consistent scenario)
What is the Globalisation of Inflation?
Altansukh, Gantungalag; Becker, Ralf; Bratsiotis, George J.; Osborn, Denise R.
2017-01-01
This paper studies the globalisation of CPI inflation by analysing core, energy and food components, testing for structural breaks in the relationships between domestic inflation and a corresponding country-specific foreign inflation series at the monthly frequency for OECD countries.The iterative methodology employed separates coefficient and variance breaks, while also taking account of outliers. We find that the overall pattern of globalisation in aggregate inflation is largely driven by c...
Consumers' opinion of inflation bias due to quality improvements in transition in the Czech Republic
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Hanousek, Jan; Filer, R.
č. 184 (2001), s. 1-24 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : inflation bias * transition economies Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp184.pdf
Ferrara, Sergio
2017-01-01
Theories with elementary scalar degrees of freedom seem nowadays required for simple descriptions of the Standard Model and of the Early Universe. It is then natural to embed theories of inflation in supergravity, also in view of their possible ultraviolet completion in String Theory. After some general remarks on inflation in supergravity, we describe examples of minimal inflaton dynamics which are compatible with recent observations, including higher-curvature ones inspired by the Starobinsky model. We also discuss different scenarios for supersymmetry breaking during and after inflation, which include a revived role for non-linear realizations. In this spirit, we conclude with a discussion of the link, in four dimensions, between "brane supersymmetry breaking" and the super--Higgs effect in supergravity.
Warm inflation in the stochastic inflation formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silva, Leandro A. da; Ramos, Rudnei O.
2011-01-01
Full text: The basic assumption of stochastic inflation is the splitting, through the definition of a appropriate window function, of the quantum inflaton field in a long wavelength part (modes outside of the de Sitter horizon) and in a short wavelength (modes inside the de Sitter horizon) part. The inflationary mechanism then continuously shifts more and more modes of the bath field into the system stretching their physical wavelengths beyond the de Sitter horizon size, what generates an effective system-bath interaction. Therefore, the system field develops a stochastic dynamics driven by the bath field, that plays the role of noise source. The resulting equation of motion (EoM) is a Langevin-like equation. Applying this formalism to Warm Inflation scenario (where, alternatively to the cold inflation, we assume that the inflaton evolves in a thermal bath and through a dissipative process continuously generates radiation, thus avoiding the necessity of a reheating mechanism), we contrast the exact numerical solution of thermal power spectrum and two approximations currently used in the literature, and compare this to the quantum power spectrum at horizon crossing. Finally, we consider a more realistic model based on microscopic derivations to estimate the effects of non-Markovianity on the inflaton dynamics and on the thermal power spectrum. (author)
Primordial anisotropies in gauged hybrid inflation
Akbar Abolhasani, Ali; Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan
2014-05-01
We study primordial anisotropies generated in the model of gauged hybrid inflation in which the complex waterfall field is charged under a U(1)gauge field. Primordial anisotropies are generated either actively during inflation or from inhomogeneities modulating the surface of end of inflation during waterfall transition. We present a consistent δN mechanism to calculate the anisotropic power spectrum and bispectrum. We show that the primordial anisotropies generated at the surface of end of inflation do not depend on the number of e-folds and therefore do not produce dangerously large anisotropies associated with the IR modes. Furthermore, one can find the parameter space that the anisotropies generated from the surface of end of inflation cancel the anisotropies generated during inflation, therefore relaxing the constrains on model parameters imposed from IR anisotropies. We also show that the gauge field fluctuations induce a red-tilted power spectrum so the averaged power spectrum from the gauge field can change the total power spectrum from blue to red. Therefore, hybrid inflation, once gauged under a U(1) field, can be consistent with the cosmological observations.
Nonthermal gravitino production in tribrid inflation
Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik
2015-10-01
We investigate nonthermal gravitino production after tribrid inflation in supergravity, which is a variant of supersymmetric hybrid inflation where three fields are involved in the inflationary model and where the inflaton field resides in the matter sector of the theory. In contrast to conventional supersymmetric hybrid inflation, where nonthermal gravitino production imposes severe constraints on the inflationary model, we find that the "nonthermal gravitino problem" is generically absent in models of tribrid inflation, mainly due to two effects: (i) With the inflaton in tribrid inflation (after inflation) being lighter than the waterfall field, the latter has a second decay channel with a much larger rate than for the decay into gravitinos. This reduces the branching ratio for the decay of the waterfall field into gravitinos. (ii) The inflaton generically decays later than the waterfall field, and it does not produce gravitinos when it decays. This leads to a dilution of the gravitino population from the decays of the waterfall field. The combination of both effects generically leads to a strongly reduced gravitino production in tribrid inflation.
Primordial anisotropies in gauged hybrid inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abolhasani, Ali Akbar; Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan
2014-01-01
We study primordial anisotropies generated in the model of gauged hybrid inflation in which the complex waterfall field is charged under a U(1)gauge field. Primordial anisotropies are generated either actively during inflation or from inhomogeneities modulating the surface of end of inflation during waterfall transition. We present a consistent δN mechanism to calculate the anisotropic power spectrum and bispectrum. We show that the primordial anisotropies generated at the surface of end of inflation do not depend on the number of e-folds and therefore do not produce dangerously large anisotropies associated with the IR modes. Furthermore, one can find the parameter space that the anisotropies generated from the surface of end of inflation cancel the anisotropies generated during inflation, therefore relaxing the constrains on model parameters imposed from IR anisotropies. We also show that the gauge field fluctuations induce a red-tilted power spectrum so the averaged power spectrum from the gauge field can change the total power spectrum from blue to red. Therefore, hybrid inflation, once gauged under a U(1) field, can be consistent with the cosmological observations
How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Horváth, Roman; Baxa, Jaromír; Vašíček, B.
2014-01-01
Roč. 18, č. 3 (2014), s. 593-630 ISSN 1365-1005 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Inflation Targeting * Time-Varying Parameter Model * Endogenous Regressors Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.667, year: 2014 http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9205115&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S1365100512000545
Graceful exit from Higgs G-inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kamada, Kohei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Kobayashi, Tsutomu [Rikkyo Univ., Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Kunimitsu, Taro [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Yamaguchi, Masahide [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yokoyama, Jun' ichi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Tokyo Univ., Chiba (Japan). Kavli Inst. for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (Kavli IPMU)
2013-09-15
Higgs G-inflation is a Higgs inflation model with a generalized Galileon term added to the standard model Higgs field, which realizes inflation compatible with observations. Recently, it was claimed that the generalized Galileon term induces instabilities during the oscillation phase, and that the simplest Higgs G-inflation model inevitably suffers from this problem. In this paper, we extend the original Higgs G-inflation Lagrangian to a more general form, namely introducing a higher-order kinetic term and generalizing the form of the Galileon term, so that the Higgs field can oscillate after inflation without encountering instabilities. Moreover, it accommodates a large region of the n{sub s}-r plane, most of which is consistent with current observations, leading us to expect the detection of B-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background in the near future.
A smooth exit from eternal inflation?
Hawking, S. W.; Hertog, Thomas
2018-04-01
The usual theory of inflation breaks down in eternal inflation. We derive a dual description of eternal inflation in terms of a deformed Euclidean CFT located at the threshold of eternal inflation. The partition function gives the amplitude of different geometries of the threshold surface in the no-boundary state. Its local and global behavior in dual toy models shows that the amplitude is low for surfaces which are not nearly conformal to the round three-sphere and essentially zero for surfaces with negative curvature. Based on this we conjecture that the exit from eternal inflation does not produce an infinite fractal-like multiverse, but is finite and reasonably smooth.
Zvi Bodie
1989-01-01
A contract to insure $1 against inflation is equivalent to a European call option on the consumer price index. When there is no deductible this call option is equivalent to a forward contract on the CPI. Its price is the difference between the prices of a zero coupon real bond and a zero coupon nominal bond, both free of default risk. Provided that the risk-free real rate of interest is positive, the price of such an inflation insurance policy first rises and then falls with time to maturity....
Money Supply, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Cameroon: A ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Money Supply, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Cameroon: A Time Series ... the impacts of money and interest rate on economic growth and development. ... Money Supply, Interest Rates, Economic growth, Co-integration and Inflation.
A critical review of inflation
Turok, N G
2002-01-01
The theory of cosmic inflation offers an attractive resolution of some of the great paradoxes in cosmology: why the universe is so large, flat and uniform on large scales, and how density variations arose. Inflation has rightly dominated cosmological thinking for the past two decades, helping stimulate the development of high-precision observational programmes. The survival of simple inflationary models in the face of an impressive observational onslaught has been interpreted as convincing evidence of the correctness of the basic idea. In this paper, I review inflation, but highlight its weaknesses, explaining my reasons for believing that a more complete theory may supersede inflation without necessarily incorporating it.
A critical review of inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Turok, Neil
2002-01-01
The theory of cosmic inflation offers an attractive resolution of some of the great paradoxes in cosmology: why the universe is so large, flat and uniform on large scales, and how density variations arose. Inflation has rightly dominated cosmological thinking for the past two decades, helping stimulate the development of high-precision observational programmes. The survival of simple inflationary models in the face of an impressive observational onslaught has been interpreted as convincing evidence of the correctness of the basic idea. In this paper, I review inflation, but highlight its weaknesses, explaining my reasons for believing that a more complete theory may supersede inflation without necessarily incorporating it
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mladenović Zorica
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to measure inflation persistence in the following countries of Central and Southeastern Europe: Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Serbia. The study sample covers monthly data from January, 1995 to May, 2010 for Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, from January 1994 to May, 2010 for the Czech Republic, and from January, 2002 to June 2010 for Romania. The shortest sample used, from January, 2003 to September, 2010, was for Serbia and is due to the late start in the transition process. The results of this study enriched the existing ones on this topic by extending the sample period to cover even the recent years of relatively higher inflation rates and by including Romania and Serbia, which were not previously considered. The study led to two main findings: first, inflation of moderate to high magnitude persistence in Hungary, Poland, Romania and Serbia, and inflation of smaller order persistence in Slovakia and the Czech Republic was detected within the Markov switching model approach. In addition, the changes in inflation persistence often correspond to changes in variability and mean of inflation. Second, New Keynesian Phillips Curve represents a valid structural approach to describe the inflation dynamics in this region. In all the six cases studied, weights on backward and forward looking behaviors were significant, while the impact of the driving variable was insignificant only once. It is found that significant influence of the economic driving variable can be captured by real gross wage inflation and real broad money growth. The estimates show that the backward-looking term plays an important role in determining the inflation dynamics. Similar conclusions are drawn by using quarterly data in econometric estimations for the selected countries.
Inflation and the Higgs Scalar
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Green, Dan [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States)
2014-12-05
This note makes a self-contained exposition of the basic facts of big bang cosmology as they relate to inflation. The fundamental problems with that model are then explored. A simple scalar model of inflation is evaluated which provides the solution of those problems and makes predictions which will soon be definitively tested. The possibility that the recently discovered fundamental Higgs scalar field drives inflation is explored.
A new model for deteriorating items with inflation under permissible delay in payments
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R.P. Tripathi
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Inflation is an important factor influencing traditional economic order quality models. Marketing strategy depends on inflation due to public demand and availability of the materials. This paper presents an optimal inventory policy for deteriorating items using exponential demand rate under permissible delay in payments. Mathematical model has been derived under two cases: case I: cycle time is greater than or equal to permissible delay period, case II: cycle time is less than permissible delay period by considering holding cost as a function of time. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are given to reflect the numerical results. Mathematica software is used for finding optimal solutions.
The investigation on the relationship between the problem of long-term loan and economic growth
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Wenjie Du
2011-01-01
Purpose-Since the reform and opening-up policy,the long-term problem of loans became more and more serious when China's economy maintained rapid growth.The purpose of this paper is to explore the profound causes of the medium-and long-term problem of loans and the relationship between it and economic growth.Design/methodology/approach-Using panel data for 28 provinces and cities of China during 1994-2005,this paper investigates the determinants on the maturity of bank credit using threshold panel data of Hansen.In addition,using dynamics panel data,this paper investigates the effects of the maturity structure of bank credit on economic growth.Findings-The drop of bank industry concentration tends to increase the supply of long-term loans.The raise of economic growth and the increase of industrialization degree promote the demand of long-term loans,significantly.Furthermore,the threshold effects of inflation exist.When the initial inflation is lower than 3.9 percent,the raise of inflation can increase the supply of long-term loans.When the initial inflation is higher than 3.9 percent,the raise of inflation can decrease the supply of long-term loans.The increase in the supply of long-term loans can promote the economic growth.Originality/value-The paper has two innovations:first,when studying the determinants on the maturity of bank credit,using the threshold panel approach takes account of the nonlinear adjustment of inflation;second,including the maturity of bank credit into the realm of financial development studies the relationship between this and economic growth.
Ten years of inflation targeting in Serbia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bungin Sanja
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Monetary strategy of inflation targeting in Serbia was unofficially introduced in September 2006. The National Bank of Serbia has faced the numerous challenges that are typical for transition countries which apply the same strategy. At the start of inflation targeting, inflation was reduced to a single-digit number, which characterises most other countries. However, the volatility of inflation during the implementation of the strategy has been extremely high, mainly caused by the changes of processed and unprocessed food prices. Moreover, for a country with a high degree of euroisation, such as Serbia, the exchange rate plays an important role in the movement of inflation. Controlling the trends of the exchange rate in order to maintain the stability of inflation is contrary to the assumptions of inflation targeting. However, it can be concluded that despite all the obstacles faced by the NBS, inflation targeting is the optimal choice of a monetary strategy.
The scale of inflation in the landscape
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pedro, F.G.; Westphal, A.
2013-03-01
We determine the frequency of regions of small-field inflation in the Wigner landscape as an approximation to random supergravities/type IIB flux compactifications. We show that small-field inflation occurs exponentially more often than large-field inflation The power of primordial gravitational waves from inflation is generically tied to the scale of inflation. For small-field models this is below observational reach. However, we find small-field inflation to be dominated by the highest inflationary energy scales compatible with a sub-Planckian field range. Hence, we expect a typical tensor-to-scalar ratio r∝O(10 -3 ) currently undetectable in upcoming CMB measurements.
The scale of inflation in the landscape
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pedro, F.G.; Westphal, A. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group
2013-03-15
We determine the frequency of regions of small-field inflation in the Wigner landscape as an approximation to random supergravities/type IIB flux compactifications. We show that small-field inflation occurs exponentially more often than large-field inflation The power of primordial gravitational waves from inflation is generically tied to the scale of inflation. For small-field models this is below observational reach. However, we find small-field inflation to be dominated by the highest inflationary energy scales compatible with a sub-Planckian field range. Hence, we expect a typical tensor-to-scalar ratio r{proportional_to}O(10{sup -3}) currently undetectable in upcoming CMB measurements.
Vallurupalli, Srikanth; Kasula, Srikanth; Kumar Agarwal, Shiv; Pothineni, Naga Venkata K; Abualsuod, Amjad; Hakeem, Abdul; Ahmed, Zubair; Uretsky, Barry F
2017-08-01
High-pressure inflation for coronary stent deployment is universally performed. However, the duration of inflation is variable and does not take into account differences in lesion compliance. We developed a standardized "pressure optimization protocol" (POP) using inflation pressure stability rather than an arbitrary inflation time or angiographic balloon appearance for stent deployment. Whether this approach improves long-term outcomes is unknown. 792 patients who underwent PCI using either rapid inflation/deflation (n = 376) or POP (n = 416) between January 2009 and March 2014 were included. Exclusion criteria included PCI for acute myocardial infarction, in-stent restenosis, chronic total occlusion, left main, and saphenous vein graft lesions. Primary endpoint was target vessel failure [TVF = combined end point of target vessel revascularization (TVR), myocardial infarction, and cardiac death]. Outcomes were analyzed in the entire cohort and in a propensity analysis. Stent implantation using POP with a median follow-up of 1317 days was associated with lower TVF compared with rapid inflation/deflation (10.1 vs. 17.8%, P inflation/deflation (10 vs. 18%, P < 0.0001). Stent deployment using POP led to reduced TVF compared to rapid I/D. These results recommend this method to improve long-term outcomes. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Inflation experiences of retirees
Kalwij, Adriaan; Alessie, Robertus; Gardner, Jonathan; Ali, Ashik Anwar
The inflation experience of people depends on their expenditure patterns and price developments. This paper identifies groups of retirees that have experienced relatively high price inflation over the last few decades and could thus be considered most vulnerable when income decreases, as has been
Affleck-Dine baryogenesis just after inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yamada, Masaki
2015-11-01
We propose a new scenario of Affleck-Dine baryogenesis where a at direction in the MSSM generates B-L asymmetry just after the end of inflation. The resulting amount of baryon asymmetry is independent of low-energy supersymmetric models but is dependent on inflation models. We consider the hybrid and chaotic inflation models and find that reheating temperature is required to be higher than that in the conventional scenario of Affleck-Dine baryogenesis. In particular, non-thermal gravitino-overproduction problem is naturally avoided in the hybrid inflation model. Our results imply that Affleck-Dine baryogenesis can be realized in a broader range of supersymmetry and inflation models than expected in the literature.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack
2015-01-01
Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex,Brighton BN1 9QH (United Kingdom)
2015-10-05
Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.
Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack
2015-10-01
Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.
Dark energy from gravitoelectromagnetic inflation?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Membiela, A.; Bellini, M.
2008-01-01
Gravitoelectromagnetic Inflation (GI) was introduced to describe in a unified manner electromagnetic, gravitatory and inflation fields from a 5D vacuum state. On the other hand, the primordial origin and evolution of dark energy is today unknown. In this letter we show using GI that the zero modes of some redefined vector fields B i = A i /a produced during inflation could be the source of dark energy in the Universe.
Inflation and Failure of Polymeric Membranes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hassager, Ole; Neergaard, Jesper
2000-01-01
We consider the inflation of an axisymmetric polymeric membrane.Some membranes composed of viscoelastic materialsdescribed by a Mooney-Rivlin model show a monotone increasingpressure during inflation. These materialsdevelop a homogeneous membrane thickness in agreement with the Considere...... is found to stabilize the inflated polymer membrane....
real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... effects of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance in Nigeria. .... main factors that impacts on real exchange rate in India .... financial assets and ignores non-economic factor such as .... and fiscal policies to control inflation.
Anisotropic inflation reexamined: upper bound on broken rotational invariance during inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Naruko, Atsushi; Yamaguchi, Masahide; Komatsu, Eiichiro
2015-01-01
The presence of a light vector field coupled to a scalar field during inflation makes a distinct prediction: the observed correlation functions of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) become statistically anisotropic. We study the implications of the current bound on statistical anisotropy derived from the Planck 2013 CMB temperature data for such a model. The previous calculations based on the attractor solution indicate that the magnitude of anisotropy in the power spectrum is proportional to N 2 , where N is the number of e-folds of inflation counted from the end of inflation. In this paper, we show that the attractor solution is not necessarily compatible with the current bound, and derive new predictions using another branch of anisotropic inflation. In addition, we improve upon the calculation of the mode function of perturbations by including the leading-order slow-roll corrections. We find that the anisotropy is roughly proportional to [2(ε H +4η H )/3−4(c−1)] −2 , where ε H and η H are the usual slow-roll parameters and c is the parameter in the model, regardless of the form of potential of an inflaton field. The bound from Planck implies that breaking of rotational invariance during inflation (characterized by the background homogeneous shear divided by the Hubble rate) is limited to be less than O(10 −9 ). This bound is many orders of magnitude smaller than the amplitude of breaking of time translation invariance, which is observed to be O(10 −2 )
Linear inflation from quartic potential
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kannike, Kristjan; Racioppi, Antonio [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics,Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Raidal, Martti [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics,Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Institute of Physics, University of Tartu,Tartu (Estonia)
2016-01-07
We show that if the inflaton has a non-minimal coupling to gravity and the Planck scale is dynamically generated, the results of Coleman-Weinberg inflation are confined in between two attractor solutions: quadratic inflation, which is ruled out by the recent measurements, and linear inflation which, instead, is in the experimental allowed region. The minimal scenario has only one free parameter — the inflaton’s non-minimal coupling to gravity — that determines all physical parameters such as the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the reheating temperature of the Universe. Should the more precise future measurements of inflationary parameters point towards linear inflation, further interest in scale-invariant scenarios would be motivated.
Optimal inflation for the U.S.
Roberto M. Billi
2007-01-01
What is the correctly measured inflation rate that monetary policy should aim for in the long-run? This paper characterizes the optimal inflation rate for the U.S. economy in a New Keynesian sticky-price model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. Real-rate and mark-up shocks jointly determine the optimal inflation rate to be positive but not large. Even allowing for the possibility of extreme model misspecification, the optimal inflation rate is robustly...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Naghdi Yazdan
2015-08-01
Full Text Available Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking, extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI. Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.
Winitzki, Sergei
2009-01-01
This volume is the only monograph covering the exciting and dazzling recent developments in quantum cosmology, including the theory of the "multiverse" and eternal inflation pioneered by A Vilenkin, A Linde, S W Hawking, and others. Written by a leading expert in the field known for his depth and clarity of presentation, the volume presents an overview of 20 years of development of the theory of eternal inflation as well as a comprehensive, research-level introduction into the current methods and problems. This volume is invaluable for researchers as a definitive reference in the rapidly devel
Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lena Malešević-Perović
2009-06-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of inflation in Croatia in the period 1994:6-2006:6. We use a cointegration approach and find that increases in wages positively influence inflation in the long-run. Furthermore, in the period from June 1994 onward, the depreciation of the currency also contributed to inflation. Money does not explain Croatian inflation. This irrelevance of the money supply is consistent with its endogeneity to exchange rate targeting, whereby the money supply is determined by developments in the foreign exchange market. The value of inflation in the previous period is also found to be significant, thus indicating some inflation inertia.
Maleknejad, A.; Sheikh-Jabbari, M. M.; Soda, J.
2013-07-01
The isotropy and homogeneity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) favors “scalar driven” early Universe inflationary models. However, gauge fields and other non-scalar fields are far more common at all energy scales, in particular at high energies seemingly relevant to inflation models. Hence, in this review we consider the role and consequences, theoretical and observational, that gauge fields can have during the inflationary era. Gauge fields may be turned on in the background during inflation, or may become relevant at the level of cosmic perturbations. There have been two main classes of models with gauge fields in the background, models which show violation of the cosmic no-hair theorem and those which lead to isotropic FLRW cosmology, respecting the cosmic no-hair theorem. Models in which gauge fields are only turned on at the cosmic perturbation level, may source primordial magnetic fields. We also review specific observational features of these models on the CMB and/or the primordial cosmic magnetic fields. Our discussions will be mainly focused on the inflation period, with only a brief discussion on the post inflationary (p)reheating era. Large field models: The initial value of the inflaton field is large, generically super-Planckian, and it rolls slowly down toward the potential minimum at smaller φ values. For instance, chaotic inflation is one of the representative models of this class. The typical potential of large-field models has a monomial form as V(φ)=V0φn. A simple analysis using the dynamical equations reveals that for number of e-folds Ne larger than 60, we require super-Planckian initial field values,5φ0>3M. For these models typically ɛ˜η˜Ne-1. Small field models: Inflaton field is initially small and slowly evolves toward the potential minimum at larger φ values. The small field models are characterized by the following potential V(φ)=V0(1-(), which corresponds to a Taylor expansion about the origin, but more realistic
2010-10-01
... Inspections § 169.849 Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable... accessible to the ship's company and guests approved placards containing instructions for launching and... determined by the Officer in Charge, Marine Inspection. ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antusch, Stefan
2006-01-01
We review the scenario of sneutrino hybrid inflation, where one of the singlet sneutrinos, the superpartners of the right-handed neutrinos, plays the role of the inflaton. In a minimal model of sneutrino hybrid inflation, the spectral index is given by ns ≅ 1 + 2γ. With γ = 0.025 ± 0.01 constrained by WMAP, a running spectral index vertical bar dns/dlnk vertical bar << vertical barγvertical bar and a tensor-to-scalar ratio r << γ2 are predicted. Small neutrino masses arise from the seesaw mechanism, with heavy masses for the singlet (s)neutrinos generated by the vacuum expectation value of the waterfall field after inflation. The baryon asymmetry of the universe can be explained by non-thermal leptogenesis via sneutrino inflaton decay, with low reheat temperature TRH ≅ 106 GeV
12 CFR 1780.80 - Inflation adjustments.
2010-01-01
... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation adjustments. 1780.80 Section 1780.80... DEVELOPMENT RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Civil Money Penalty Inflation Adjustments § 1780.80 Inflation adjustments. The maximum amount of each civil money penalty within OFHEO's...
Curvaton and the inhomogeneous end of inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Assadullahi, Hooshyar; Wands, David; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Namjoo, Mohammad Hossein
2012-01-01
We study the primordial density perturbations and non-Gaussianities generated from the combined effects of an inhomogeneous end of inflation and curvaton decay in hybrid inflation. This dual role is played by a single isocurvature field which is massless during inflation but acquire a mass at the end of inflation via the waterfall phase transition. We calculate the resulting primordial non-Gaussianity characterized by the non-linearity parameter, f NL , recovering the usual end-of-inflation result when the field decays promptly and the usual curvaton result if the field decays sufficiently late
Scalar-tensor linear inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Artymowski, Michał [Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, Łojasiewicza 11, 30-348 Kraków (Poland); Racioppi, Antonio, E-mail: Michal.Artymowski@uj.edu.pl, E-mail: Antonio.Racioppi@kbfi.ee [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia)
2017-04-01
We investigate two approaches to non-minimally coupled gravity theories which present linear inflation as attractor solution: a) the scalar-tensor theory approach, where we look for a scalar-tensor theory that would restore results of linear inflation in the strong coupling limit for a non-minimal coupling to gravity of the form of f (φ) R /2; b) the particle physics approach, where we motivate the form of the Jordan frame potential by loop corrections to the inflaton field. In both cases the Jordan frame potentials are modifications of the induced gravity inflationary scenario, but instead of the Starobinsky attractor they lead to linear inflation in the strong coupling limit.
Luis F. Zegarra; Eduardo MorÃ³n
1999-01-01
A central element of an inflation targeting approach to monetary policy is a proper measure of inflation. The international evidence suggests the use of core inflation measures. In this paper we claim that core inflation should be measured as the underlying trend of inflation that comes from nominal shocks that have no real effect in the long term. However, most of the time core inflation is computed zero weighting observations at the tail of the inflation distribution. Quah and Vahey (1996) ...
The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Naresh Kumar Sharma
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey respondents do not form expectations rationally, regardless of the reference measures of inflation used. Further, results indicate that inflation expectations are formed purely in backward-looking manner, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI has a low degree of credibility within the survey respondents. The study then formulates a model to identify individual elements of the backward-looking expectations in the data. The results suggest that the respondents’ short term expectations for WPI inflation are purely naïve type of expectations, only influenced by respondents earlier period expectations. In the case of CPIIW inflation, the results however suggest that the short-term expectations are not purely naïve type, but also contain adaptive as well as a static forms of expectations. This means that respondents consider their previous forecast errors about CPIIW inflation and draw recent price developments in the CPIIW while forming their overall short-term inflation expectations. This finding provides some formal evidence that the CPI based inflation measure is better suited, than WPI inflation, as a nominal anchor in the RBI’s recent transition to inflation targeting regime. JEL classification: D84, E31, E52, E37, Keywords: Inflation, Inflation expectations, Survey data, Price index, Monetary policy, Forecasting
Consideration of inflation in comparing cooling systems for a nuclear power station
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sullivan, W.G.; Fell, H.A.
1976-01-01
Based only on the initial capital outlay for each cooling system, natural-draft cooling towers were $7.828 x 10 6 less expensive than once-through cooling. This margin favoring natural-draft cooling dropped to only $2.24 x 10 6 when the present-worth of after-tax cash flow was evaluated in terms of constant-worth dollars. Annual estimates of after-tax cash flow took into account various costs that were either responsive or non-responsive to inflation, the method of loan repayment, and local and federal taxes. It is believed that the tabular procedure presented in the article has widespread applicability to other economic analyses involving the presence of inflation. Its simplicity and ease of understanding should be appealing to decision makers
Inflation of a Polymeric Menbrane
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Susanne B.; Larsen, Johannes R.; Hassager, Ole
1998-01-01
We consider an axisymmetric polymeric membrane inflated by a uniform pressure difference acting across the membrane.......We consider an axisymmetric polymeric membrane inflated by a uniform pressure difference acting across the membrane....
AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC REVIEW
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Dr Kazungu
high economic growth rates and lower inflation rates, a remaining challenge is ... from other various sources such as the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) and ..... against factors, which are hypothesized to affect tax revenue performance.
Accidental inflation from Kähler uplifting
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Theory Group, Notkestrasse 85, D-22603 Hamburg (Germany); Jing, Shenglin, E-mail: ido.bendayan@desy.de, E-mail: shenglin.jing@utoronto.ca, E-mail: alexander.westphal@desy.de, E-mail: clemens.wieck@desy.de [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 60 St.George Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 3H8 (Canada)
2014-03-01
We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Käahler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation'' (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running α ∼ 0.012 and enhanced tensor-to-scalar ratio r ∼ 10{sup −5}. The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.
New BLS Data on Staff Nurse Compensation and Inflation-Adjusted Wages.
McMenamin, Peter
2014-01-01
The wages of hospital staff RNs are a measure of the economic well-being of nurses across the board. The good news is the estimated average annual compensation for hospital RNs is now $107,307, consisting of $72,862 in wages and $34,445 in fringe benefits. The bad news is inflation has taken away virtually all of those increases. How long will it take the hospital industry to respond to the economic recovery, the decline of unemployment, and increased insurance coverage of the general population? Managing the transition will require greater attention to maintaining the equilibrium of hospital nurse wages.
When Parents' Praise Inflates, Children's Self-Esteem Deflates.
Brummelman, Eddie; Nelemans, Stefanie A; Thomaes, Sander; Orobio de Castro, Bram
2017-11-01
Western parents often give children overly positive, inflated praise. One perspective holds that inflated praise sets unattainable standards for children, eventually lowering children's self-esteem (self-deflation hypothesis). Another perspective holds that children internalize inflated praise to form narcissistic self-views (self-inflation hypothesis). These perspectives were tested in an observational-longitudinal study (120 parent-child dyads from the Netherlands) in late childhood (ages 7-11), when narcissism and self-esteem first emerge. Supporting the self-deflation hypothesis, parents' inflated praise predicted lower self-esteem in children. Partly supporting the self-inflation hypothesis, parents' inflated praise predicted higher narcissism-but only in children with high self-esteem. Noninflated praise predicted neither self-esteem nor narcissism. Thus, inflated praise may foster the self-views it seeks to prevent. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.
Constant-roll tachyon inflation and observational constraints
Gao, Qing; Gong, Yungui; Fei, Qin
2018-05-01
For the constant-roll tachyon inflation, we derive the analytical expressions for the scalar and tensor power spectra, the scalar and tensor spectral tilts and the tensor to scalar ratio to the first order of epsilon1 by using the method of Bessel function approximation. The derived ns-r results are compared with the observations, we find that only the constant-roll inflation with ηH being a constant is consistent with the observations and observations constrain the constant-roll inflation to be slow-roll inflation. The tachyon potential is also reconstructed for the constant-roll inflation which is consistent with the observations.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN, Route de Meyrin 385, 1217 Meyrin (Switzerland); Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)
2015-03-23
We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, A{sub s}, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, n{sub s}, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, r. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King' s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih, E-mail: john.ellis@cern.ch, E-mail: tomas.gonzalo.11@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: j.harz@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: wei-chih.huang@ucl.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)
2015-03-01
We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, A{sub s}, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, n{sub s}, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, r. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.
Ellis, John; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih
2015-01-01
We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)$\\times$U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, $A_s$, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, $n_s$, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, $r$. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.
On inflation in the heterotic superstring model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maeda, K.; Pollock, M.D.
1985-11-01
We consider the possibility of achieving inflation in the field-theory limit of the E 8 xE 8 superstring model. We show that neither type I inflation nor inflation due to a SUSY-breaking gaugino-condensation potential, is possible, essentially because of the absence of free dimensionless parameters. Kaluza-Klein type inflation is ruled out because the internal space is Ricci flat. The occurrence of type II inflation (due to some gauge singlet 'inflaton' field phi) depends upon the form of the superpotential F and of the Kaehler potential G, but this also seems not to be possible, unless the SU(n,1) symmetry can be broken in a particular way. Hence, some new type of compactification scheme may be called for, or a different type of inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Green, Daniel; Horn, Bart; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.; Senatore, Leonardo; /Princeton, Inst. Advanced Study /Harvard U., Phys. Dept. /Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.; Silverstein, Eva; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.
2009-06-19
We analyze a distinctive mechanism for inflation in which particle production slows down a scalar field on a steep potential, and show how it descends from angular moduli in string compactifications. The analysis of density perturbations - taking into account the integrated effect of the produced particles and their quantum fluctuations - requires somewhat new techniques that we develop. We then determine the conditions for this effect to produce sixty e-foldings of inflation with the correct amplitude of density perturbations at the Gaussian level, and show that these requirements can be straightforwardly satisfied. Finally, we estimate the amplitude of the non-Gaussianity in the power spectrum and find a significant equilateral contribution.
Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fernando Ormonde Teixeira
Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.
Aspects of supersymmetric inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lindblom, P.R.
1987-01-01
A new supersymmetric inflationary model is presented and shown to possess the following features: a successful slow rollover produced by quantum corrections; an acceptable pattern of supersymmetry breaking leading to the correct value of the electroweak scale; and a stable slow rollover transition to a minimum with vanishing cosmological constant. It is demonstrated that there is a class of GUT models which are compatible with an inflationary universe scenario in which: (a) the GUT and inflationary phase transitions are distinct (as in supersymmetric inflation); and (b) an observable number of GUT monopoles are created thermally due to reheating of the GUT sector after inflation. This provides one of the few ways of reconciling an observation of GUT monopoles with inflation. New techniques are developed for constructing inflationary models with multiple inflation fields, such as generalizing the one-dimensional slow rollover constraints and estimating the contribution to δρ/ρ from fluctuations transverse to the path of the slow rollover. A new method for ending the slow rollover portion of the inflationary transition is developed
Effect of the length of inflation on angular TT and TE power spectra in power-law inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirai, Shiro; Takami, Tomoyuki
2006-01-01
The effect of the length of inflation on the power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations is estimated using the power-law inflation model with a scale factor of a(η) = (-η) p = t q . Considering various pre-inflation models with radiation-dominated or scalar matter-dominated periods before inflation in combination with two matching conditions, the temperature angular power spectrum (TT) and temperature-polarization cross-power spectrum (TE) are calculated and a likelihood analysis is performed. It is shown that the discrepancies between the Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe (WMAP) data and the ΛCDM model, such as suppression of the spectrum at l = 2, 3 and oscillatory behaviour, may be explained by the finite length of inflation model if the length of inflation is near 60 e-folds and q ≥ 300. The proposed models retain similar values of χ 2 to that achieved by the ΛCDM model with respect to fit to the WMAP data, but display different characteristics of the angular TE power spectra at l ≤ 20
Inflation, Growth and Exchange Rate Regimes in Small Open Economies
Hernandez-Verme, Paula
2002-01-01
Summary. This is an extended working paper version of the paper that appeared in Economic Theory. It paper compares the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in small open economies where financial intermediaries perform a real allocative function, there are multiple reserve requirements, and credit market frictions may or may not cause credit rationing. Under floating exchange rates, raising domestic inflation can increase production if credit is rationed. However, there exist infla...
Ambiguities of fighting inflation: structure of alcohol fuel prices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nastari, Plinio Mario
1993-01-01
The control of consumer prices of alcohol fuel and gasoline has been used by the Brazilian government as a tool for fighting inflation. The production of alcohol fuel from biomass and the use of its by-products is one of the few strategies that will permit economic development and environmental preservation at the same time. While the pricing policy continues to determine the energy policy, it will be almost impossible to promote the production and the use of alcohol fuel in the country
The 1996 global economic outlook: Skirting the edge
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lieberman, C.
1996-01-01
The paper consists of data on global economics including charts on output per hour in private nonfarm business sector; labor force growth; payroll employment; civilian employment; hours worked/week in manufacturing; growth in manhours; civilian unemployment rate; inflation versus unemployment; wage inflation; unit labor costs; capacity utilization; durable goods backlogs; change in nonfarm business inventories; inflation-adjusted inventories relative to sales; home sales; housing starts; real disposable income and consumption; savings; household debt; office vacancy rates; nonresidential construction; trade balance; real growth in US versus the rest of the G-7; US export growth; consumer price index; and producer price index
Anisotropic constant-roll inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro [Kobe University, Department of Physics, Kobe (Japan)
2018-01-15
We study constant-roll inflation in the presence of a gauge field coupled to an inflaton. By imposing the constant anisotropy condition, we find new exact anisotropic constant-roll inflationary solutions which include anisotropic power-law inflation as a special case. We also numerically show that the new anisotropic solutions are attractors in the phase space. (orig.)
AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC REVIEW
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Dr Kazungu
This study examines the impact of trade liberalization on performance in the Nigerian ... output while the effect of inflation on agricultural output is positive and significant ...... exports', Journal of Economics and International Finance 4(8), pp.
The inflation sector of extended inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kolb, E.W.
1990-11-01
In extended inflation the inflationary era is brought to a close by the process of percolation of true vacuum bubbles produced in a first-order phase transition. In this paper I discuss several effects that might obtain if the Universe undergoes an inflationary first-order phase transition. 17 refs
Robustness of inflation to inhomogeneous initial conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clough, Katy; Lim, Eugene A. [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Physics Department, Kings College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); DiNunno, Brandon S.; Fischler, Willy; Flauger, Raphael; Paban, Sonia, E-mail: katy.clough@kcl.ac.uk, E-mail: eugene.a.lim@gmail.com, E-mail: bsd86@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: fischler@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: flauger@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: paban@physics.utexas.edu [Department of Physics, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712 (United States)
2017-09-01
We consider the effects of inhomogeneous initial conditions in both the scalar field profile and the extrinsic curvature on different inflationary models. In particular, we compare the robustness of small field inflation to that of large field inflation, using numerical simulations with Einstein gravity in 3+1 dimensions. We find that small field inflation can fail in the presence of subdominant gradient energies, suggesting that it is much less robust to inhomogeneities than large field inflation, which withstands dominant gradient energies. However, we also show that small field inflation can be successful even if some regions of spacetime start out in the region of the potential that does not support inflation. In the large field case, we confirm previous results that inflation is robust if the inflaton occupies the inflationary part of the potential. Furthermore, we show that increasing initial scalar gradients will not form sufficiently massive inflation-ending black holes if the initial hypersurface is approximately flat. Finally, we consider the large field case with a varying extrinsic curvature K , such that some regions are initially collapsing. We find that this may again lead to local black holes, but overall the spacetime remains inflationary if the spacetime is open, which confirms previous theoretical studies.
An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Barış Soybilgen
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Expectations of inflation play a critical role in the process of price setting in the market. Central banks closely follow developments in inflation expectations to implement a successful monetary policy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT conducts a survey of experts and decision makers in the financial and real sectors to reveal market expectations and predictions of current and future inflation. The survey is conducted every month. This paper examines the accuracy of these survey predictions using forecast evaluation techniques. We focus on both point and sign accuracy of the predictions. Although point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those of autoregressive models, sign predictions are evaluated on their value to a user. We also test the predictions for bias. Unlike the empirical evidence from other economies, our results show that autoregressive models outperform most of inflation expectations in forecasting inflation. This indicates that inflation expectations have poor point forecast accuracies. However, we show that sign predictions for all inflation expectations have value to a user.
Project Evaluation under Inflation Condition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hindy, M.; El Missiry, P.
2004-01-01
This paper analyzes the role of inflation in capital budgeting and attempts to introduce solutions to such implication in order to make the appropriate decision for the firm' stockholders under these circumstances. Inflation leads to biasness in evaluating the investment projects, due to its impact on the cash flow, the discount rate, the initial investment cost, and the depreciation. This paper has shown that the capital budgeting process is not neutral with respect to inflation, as the output prices will raise as well as the operating and capital expenditures will also be adjusted due to inflation. In addition, it has shown that it is reasonable to expect that the cost of capital will increase as a result of an increase in the real interest rate, the inflation premium, and the cost of equity. Of critical importance is the basis used in calculating the annual depreciation which may lead to the transfer of wealth from the investment projects to the government and will result in underestimating the net present value of the investment projects, if these depreciation charges is calculated based upon the historical values and not on the replacement cost of the fixed assets
Davoudiasl, Hooman; Hooper, Dan; McDermott, Samuel D
2016-01-22
We describe a general scenario, dubbed "inflatable dark matter," in which the density of dark matter particles can be reduced through a short period of late-time inflation in the early Universe. The overproduction of dark matter that is predicted within many, otherwise, well-motivated models of new physics can be elegantly remedied within this context. Thermal relics that would, otherwise, be disfavored can easily be accommodated within this class of scenarios, including dark matter candidates that are very heavy or very light. Furthermore, the nonthermal abundance of grand unified theory or Planck scale axions can be brought to acceptable levels without invoking anthropic tuning of initial conditions. A period of late-time inflation could have occurred over a wide range of scales from ∼MeV to the weak scale or above, and could have been triggered by physics within a hidden sector, with small but not necessarily negligible couplings to the standard model.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chialva, Diego; Danielsson, Ulf H
2008-01-01
This paper represents an in-depth treatment of the chain inflation scenario. We fully determine the evolution of the universe in the model, the conditions necessary in order to have a successful inflationary period, and the matching with the observational results regarding the cosmological perturbations. We study in great detail, and in general, the dynamics of the background, as well as the mechanism of generation of the perturbations. We also find an explicit formula for the spectrum of adiabatic perturbations. Our results prove that chain inflation is a viable model for solving the horizon, entropy and flatness problems of standard cosmology and for generating the right amount of adiabatic cosmological perturbations. The results are radically different from those found in previous works on the subject. Finally, we argue that there is a natural way to embed chain inflation into flux compactified string theory. We discuss the details of the implementation and how to fit observations
On the constant-roll inflation
Yi, Zhu; Gong, Yungui
2018-03-01
The primordial power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations during slow-roll inflation are usually calculated with the method of Bessel function approximation. For constant-roll or ultra slow-roll inflation, the method of Bessel function approximation may be invalid. We compare the numerical results with the analytical results derived from the Bessel function approximation, and we find that they differ significantly on super-horizon scales if the constant slow-roll parameter ηH is not small. More accurate method is needed for calculating the primordial power spectrum for constant-roll inflation.
D-term uplifted racetrack inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brax, P. [Unite de Recherche associee au CNRS, Gif sur Yvette (France). Service de Physique Theorique, CEA/DSM/SPhT; Davis, A.C. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences; Davis, S.C. [Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France). Lab. de Physique Theorique et Hautes Energies; Jeannerot, R. [Instituut-Lorentz for Theoretical Physics, Leiden (Netherlands); Postma, M. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)]|[Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica (NIKHEF), Amsterdam (Netherlands)
2007-10-15
It is shown that racetrack inflation can be implemented in a moduli stabilisation scenario with a supersymmetric uplifting D-term. The resulting model is completely described by an effective supergravity theory, in contrast to the original racetrack models. We study the inflationary dynamics and show that the gaugino condensates vary during inflation. The resulting spectral index is n{sub s} {approx}0.95 as in the original racetrack inflation model. Hence extra fields do not appear to alter the predictions of the model. An equivalent, simplified model with just a single field is presented. (orig.)
Accidental Kähler moduli inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Maharana, Anshuman; Rummel, Markus; Sumitomo, Yoske
2015-01-01
We study a model of accidental inflation in type IIB string theory where inflation occurs near the inflection point of a small Kähler modulus. A racetrack structure helps to alleviate the known concern that string-loop corrections may spoil Kähler Moduli Inflation unless having a significant suppression via the string coupling or a special brane setup. Also, the hierarchy of gauge group ranks required for the separation between moduli stabilization and inflationary dynamics is relaxed. The relaxation becomes more significant when we use the recently proposed D-term generated racetrack model
78 FR 5722 - Civil Monetary Penalty Inflation Adjustment
2013-01-28
... Civil Monetary Penalty Inflation Adjustment AGENCY: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, DoD. ACTION: Direct... for inflation. The adjustment of civil penalties to account for inflation is required by the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990, as amended. Since we have not made any adjustments to...
78 FR 5760 - Civil Monetary Penalty Inflation Adjustment
2013-01-28
... Civil Monetary Penalty Inflation Adjustment AGENCY: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, DoD. ACTION: Proposed... account for inflation. The adjustment of civil penalties to account for inflation is required by the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990, as amended. Since we have not made any...
Sneutrino hybrid inflation and nonthermal leptogenesis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antusch, Stefan; Baumann, Jochen P.; Domcke, Valerie F.; Kostka, Philipp M.
2010-01-01
In sneutrino hybrid inflation the superpartner of one of the right-handed neutrinos involved in the seesaw mechanism plays the role of the inflaton field. It obtains its large mass after the ''waterfall'' phase transition which ends hybrid inflation. After this phase transition the oscillations of the sneutrino inflaton field may dominate the universe and efficiently produce the baryon asymmetry of the universe via nonthermal leptogenesis. We investigate the conditions under which inflation, with primordial perturbations in accordance with the latest WMAP results, as well as successful nonthermal leptogenesis can be realized simultaneously within the sneutrino hybrid inflation scenario. We point out which requirements successful inflation and leptogenesis impose on the seesaw parameters, i.e. on the Yukawa couplings and the mass of the right-handed (s)neutrino, and derive the predictions for the CMB observables in terms of the right-handed (s)neutrino mass and the other relevant model parameters
Primordial perturbations in multi-scalar inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Abedi, Habib; Abbassi, Amir M., E-mail: h.abedi@ut.ac.ir, E-mail: amabasi@khayam.ut.ac.ir [Department of Physics, University of Tehran, North Kargar Ave, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2017-07-01
Multiple field models of inflation exhibit new features than single field models. In this work, we study the hierarchy of parameters based on Hubble expansion rate in curved field space and derive the system of flow equations that describe their evolutions. Then we focus on obtaining derivatives of number of e-folds with respect to scalar fields during inflation and at hypersurface of the end of inflation.
12 CFR 263.65 - Civil penalty inflation adjustments.
2010-01-01
... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Civil penalty inflation adjustments. 263.65... Money Penalties § 263.65 Civil penalty inflation adjustments. (a) Inflation adjustments. In accordance with the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 (28 U.S.C. 2461 note), the Board has...
Inflation Experiences in Latin America, 2007-2008
Mark Weisbrot; David Rosnick
2009-01-01
This paper looks briefly at the recent inflation experiences of ten Latin American countries: Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, and Bolivia. The authors construct a core inflation index (excluding food and energy), and look at three-month changes in both headline and core inflation. The paper focuses on the increase in inflation from April 2007 to July 2008, driven by a surge in food and energy prices worldwide. These prices have sin...
Transdimensional physics and inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Giudice, Gian F.; Kolb, Edward W.; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio
2002-01-01
Within the framework of a five-dimensional brane world with a stabilized radion, we compute the cosmological perturbations generated during inflation and show that the perturbations are a powerful tool to probe the physics of extra dimensions. While we find that the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is unchanged, we show that the existence of the fifth dimension is imprinted on the spectrum of gravitational waves generated during inflation. In particular, we find that the tensor perturbations receive a correction proportional to (HR) 2 , where H is the Hubble expansion rate during inflation and R is the size of the extra dimension. We also generalize our findings to the case of several extra dimensions as well as to warped geometries
Transdimensional physics and inflation
Giudice, Gian Francesco; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio; Giudice, Gian F.; Kolb, Edward W.; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio
2002-01-01
Within the framework of a five-dimensional brane world with a stabilized radion, we compute the cosmological perturbations generated during inflation and show that the perturbations are a powerful tool to probe the physics of extra dimensions. While we find that the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is unchanged, we show that the existence of the fifth dimension is imprinted on the spectrum of gravitational waves generated during inflation. In particular, we find that the tensor perturbations receive a correction proportional to (HR)^2, where H is the Hubble expansion rate during inflation and R is the size of the extra dimension. We also generalize our findings to the case of several extra dimensions as well as to warped geometries.
Inflation of Unreefed and Reefed Extraction Parachutes
Ray, Eric S.; Varela, Jose G.
2015-01-01
Data from the Orion and several other test programs have been used to reconstruct inflation parameters for 28 ft Do extraction parachutes as well as the parent aircraft pitch response during extraction. The inflation force generated by extraction parachutes is recorded directly during tow tests but is usually inferred from the payload accelerometer during Low Velocity Airdrop Delivery (LVAD) flight test extractions. Inflation parameters are dependent on the type of parent aircraft, number of canopies, and standard vs. high altitude extraction conditions. For standard altitudes, single canopy inflations are modeled as infinite mass, but the non-symmetric inflations in a cluster are modeled as finite mass. High altitude extractions have necessitated reefing the extraction parachutes, which are best modeled as infinite mass for those conditions. Distributions of aircraft pitch profiles and inflation parameters have been generated for use in Monte Carlo simulations of payload extractions.
Kehagias, Alex
2017-01-01
We investigate the recently proposed clockwork mechanism delivering light degrees of freedom with suppressed interactions and show, with various examples, that it can be efficiently implemented in inflationary scenarios to generate flat inflaton potentials and small density perturbations without fine-tunings. We also study the clockwork graviton in de Sitter and, interestingly, we find that the corresponding clockwork charge is site-dependent. As a consequence, the amount of tensor modes is generically suppressed with respect to the standard cases where the clockwork set-up is not adopted. This point can be made a virtue in resurrecting models of inflation which were supposed to be ruled out because of the excessive amount of tensor modes from inflation.
Ellis, John; Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih
2015-01-01
We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model paramet...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chimento, Luis P.
2002-01-01
We find the group of symmetry transformations under which the Einstein equations for the spatially flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe are form invariant. They relate the energy density and the pressure of the fluid to the expansion rate. We show that inflation can be obtained from nonaccelerated scenarios by a symmetry transformation. We derive the transformation rule for the spectrum and spectral index of the curvature perturbations. Finally, the group is extended to investigate inflation in the anisotropic Bianchi type-I spacetime and the brane-world cosmology
Inflatable Re-Entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE) Design Overview
Hughes, Stephen J.; Dillman, Robert A.; Starr, Brett R.; Stephan, Ryan A.; Lindell, Michael C.; Player, Charles J.; Cheatwood, F. McNeil
2005-01-01
Inflatable aeroshells offer several advantages over traditional rigid aeroshells for atmospheric entry. Inflatables offer increased payload volume fraction of the launch vehicle shroud and the possibility to deliver more payload mass to the surface for equivalent trajectory constraints. An inflatable s diameter is not constrained by the launch vehicle shroud. The resultant larger drag area can provide deceleration equivalent to a rigid system at higher atmospheric altitudes, thus offering access to higher landing sites. When stowed for launch and cruise, inflatable aeroshells allow access to the payload after the vehicle is integrated for launch and offer direct access to vehicle structure for structural attachment with the launch vehicle. They also offer an opportunity to eliminate system duplication between the cruise stage and entry vehicle. There are however several potential technical challenges for inflatable aeroshells. First and foremost is the fact that they are flexible structures. That flexibility could lead to unpredictable drag performance or an aerostructural dynamic instability. In addition, durability of large inflatable structures may limit their application. They are susceptible to puncture, a potentially catastrophic insult, from many possible sources. Finally, aerothermal heating during planetary entry poses a significant challenge to a thin membrane. NASA Langley Research Center and NASA's Wallops Flight Facility are jointly developing inflatable aeroshell technology for use on future NASA missions. The technology will be demonstrated in the Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE). This paper will detail the development of the initial IRVE inflatable system to be launched on a Terrier/Orion sounding rocket in the fourth quarter of CY2005. The experiment will demonstrate achievable packaging efficiency of the inflatable aeroshell for launch, inflation, leak performance of the inflatable system throughout the flight regime, structural
Multi-brid inflation and non-gaussianity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sasaki, Misao
2008-01-01
We consider a class of multi-component hybrid inflation models whose evolution may be analytically solved under the slow-roll approximation. We call it multi-brid inflation (or n-brid inflation where n stands for the number of inflaton fields). As an explicit example, we consider a two-brid inflation model, in which the inflaton potentials are of exponential type and a waterfall field that terminates inflation has the standard quartic potential with two minima. Using the δN formalism, we derive an expression for the curvature perturbation valid to full nonlinear order. Then we give an explicit expression for the curvature perturbation to second order in the inflaton perturbation. We find that the final from of the curvature perturbation depends crucially on how the inflation ends. Using this expression, we present closed analytical expressions for the spectrum of the curvature perturbation Ps(k), the spectral index n s , the tensor to scalar ratio r, and the non-Gaussian parameter f NL local , in terms of the model parameters. We find that a wide range of the parameter space (n s , r, f NL local ) can be covered by varying the model parameters within a physically reasonable range. In particular, for plausible values of the model parameters, we may have a large non-Gaussianity f NL local ∼10-100. This is in sharp contrast to the case of single-field hybrid inflation in which these parameters are tightly constrained. (author)
Does string theory lead to extended inflation?
Campbell, Bruce A.; Linde, Andrei; Olive, Keith A.
1991-05-01
We consider the relationship between string theory and currently proposed models of extended inflation. In doing so, we discuss the conformal actions in string theory and in Jordan-Brans-Dicke gravity. We show explicitly the equivalence of pictures in which either gauge or gravitational couplings are changing with time. We demonstrate that the existence of the dilation in string theory does not naturally lead to extended inflation as currently discussed. We also discuss the resolution of the graceful exit problem of old inflation in Einstein gravity using either power-law inflation, or exponential inflation with a changing bubble formation rate. On leave of absence from School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.
String cosmology. Large-field inflation in string theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Westphal, Alexander
2014-09-01
This is a short review of string cosmology. We wish to connect string-scale physics as closely as possible to observables accessible to current or near-future experiments. Our possible best hope to do so is a description of inflation in string theory. The energy scale of inflation can be as high as that of Grand Unification (GUT). If this is the case, this is the closest we can possibly get in energy scales to string-scale physics. Hence, GUT-scale inflation may be our best candidate phenomenon to preserve traces of string-scale dynamics. Our chance to look for such traces is the primordial gravitational wave, or tensor mode signal produced during inflation. For GUT-scale inflation this is strong enough to be potentially visible as a B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Moreover, a GUT-scale inflation model has a trans-Planckian excursion of the inflaton scalar field during the observable amount of inflation. Such large-field models of inflation have a clear need for symmetry protection against quantum corrections. This makes them ideal candidates for a description in a candidate fundamental theory like string theory. At the same time the need of large-field inflation models for UV completion makes them particularly susceptible to preserve imprints of their string-scale dynamics in the inflationary observables, the spectral index n s and the fractional tensor mode power r. Hence, we focus this review on axion monodromy inflation as a mechanism of large-field inflation in string theory.
US volatility cycles of output and inflation, 1919-2004: a money and banking approach to a puzzle
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Benk, S.; Gillman, M.; Kejak, Michal
-, č. 7150 (2009), s. 1-41 ISSN 0265-8003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : money and credit shocks and volatility * growth * inflation Subject RIV: AH - Economics www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP7150.asp
Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization
Brown, M.; de Haas, R.; Sokolov, V.
2013-01-01
Abstract: We exploit variation in consumer price inflation across 71 Russian regions to examine the relationship between the perceived stability of the local currency and financial dollarization. Our results show that regions with higher inflation experience an increase in the dollarization of
Symmetry breaking patterns for inflation
Klein, Remko; Roest, Diederik; Stefanyszyn, David
2018-06-01
We study inflationary models where the kinetic sector of the theory has a non-linearly realised symmetry which is broken by the inflationary potential. We distinguish between kinetic symmetries which non-linearly realise an internal or space-time group, and which yield a flat or curved scalar manifold. This classification leads to well-known inflationary models such as monomial inflation and α-attractors, as well as a new model based on fixed couplings between a dilaton and many axions which non-linearly realises higher-dimensional conformal symmetries. In this model, inflation can be realised along the dilatonic direction, leading to a tensor-to-scalar ratio r ˜ 0 .01 and a spectral index n s ˜ 0 .975. We refer to the new model as ambient inflation since inflation proceeds along an isometry of an anti-de Sitter ambient space-time, which fully determines the kinetic sector.
Taxation, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ghulam Rasool Madni
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Fiscal policy has more controversial debate regarding its effectiveness on different macroeconomic activities of an economy. Taxation and government expenditure are two main instruments of fiscal policy. This paper is aimed to analyze and update the effects of different instruments of fiscal policy on inflation in Pakistan economy. The data time span for this study is 1979-2013. The impact of fiscal policy on inflation is analyzed by utilizing the Bounds testing procedure and ARDL approach of co-integration which is a better estimation technique for small sample size. It is found that investment negatively and significantly affect the inflation rate. The outcomes of the study show that both types of taxes (direct and indirect are causing to increase the inflation level while fiscal deficit is also one of the reasons to increase the inflation in the country. The study proposed that government should decrease the level of expenditure to reduce the level of fiscal deficit and investment have to be promoted to decrease the inflation in the country. Furthermore, it is also suggested to decrease the level of taxation for controlling inflation.
Sneutrino hybrid inflation and nonthermal leptogenesis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Antusch, Stefan; Baumann, Jochen P.; Domcke, Valerie F.; Kostka, Philipp M., E-mail: antusch@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: jbaumann@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: domcke@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: kostka@mppmu.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München (Germany)
2010-10-01
In sneutrino hybrid inflation the superpartner of one of the right-handed neutrinos involved in the seesaw mechanism plays the role of the inflaton field. It obtains its large mass after the ''waterfall'' phase transition which ends hybrid inflation. After this phase transition the oscillations of the sneutrino inflaton field may dominate the universe and efficiently produce the baryon asymmetry of the universe via nonthermal leptogenesis. We investigate the conditions under which inflation, with primordial perturbations in accordance with the latest WMAP results, as well as successful nonthermal leptogenesis can be realized simultaneously within the sneutrino hybrid inflation scenario. We point out which requirements successful inflation and leptogenesis impose on the seesaw parameters, i.e. on the Yukawa couplings and the mass of the right-handed (s)neutrino, and derive the predictions for the CMB observables in terms of the right-handed (s)neutrino mass and the other relevant model parameters.
Higgs portal valleys, stability and inflation
Ballesteros, Guillermo
2015-01-01
The measured values of the Higgs and top quark masses imply that the Standard Model potential is very likely to be unstable at large Higgs values. This is particularly problematic during inflation, which sources large perturbations of the Higgs. The instability could be cured by a threshold effect induced by a scalar with a large vacuum expectation value and directly connected to the Standard Model through a Higgs portal coupling. However, we find that in a minimal model in which the scalar generates inflation, this mechanism does not stabilize the potential because the mass required for inflation is beyond the instability scale. This conclusion does not change if the Higgs has a direct weak coupling to the scalar curvature. On the other hand, if the potential is absolutely stable, successful inflation in agreement with current CMB data can occur along a valley of the potential with a Mexican hat profile. We revisit the stability conditions, independently of inflation, and clarify that the threshold effect ca...
Supersymmetric moduli stabilization and high-scale inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buchmueller, Wilfried; Wieck, Clemens; Winkler, Martin Wolfgang
2014-04-01
We study the back-reaction of moduli fields on the inflaton potential in generic models of F-term inflation. We derive the moduli corrections as a power series in the ratio of Hubble scale and modulus mass. The general result is illustrated with two examples, hybrid inflation and chaotic inflation. We find that in both cases the decoupling of moduli dynamics and inflation requires moduli masses close to the scale of grand unification. For smaller moduli masses the CMB observables are strongly affected.
He, Lingyun; Ding, Zhihua; Yin, Fang; Wu, Meng
2016-01-01
Significant effort has been exerted on the study of economic variables such as absolute energy prices to understand energy consumption and economic growth. However, this approach ignores general inflation effects, whereby the prices of baskets of goods may rise or fall at different rates from those of energy prices. Thus, it may be the relative energy price, not the absolute energy price, that has most important effects on energy consumption. To test this hypothesis, we introduce a new explanatory variable, the domestic relative energy price, which we define as "the ratio of domestic energy prices to the general price level of an economy," and we test the explanatory power of this new variable. Thus, this paper explores the relationship between relative energy prices and energy consumption in China from the perspective of inflation costs over the period from 1988 to 2012. The direct, regulatory and time-varying effects are captured using methods such as ridge regression and the state-space model. The direct impacts of relative energy prices on total energy consumption and intensity are -0.337 and -0.250, respectively; the effects of comprehensive regulation on energy consumption through the economic structure and the energy structure are -0.144 and -0.148, respectively; and the depressing and upward effects of rising and falling energy prices on energy consumption are 0.3520 and 0.3564, respectively. When economic growth and the energy price level were stable, inflation persisted; thus, rising energy prices benefitted both the economy and the environment. Our analysis is important for policy makers to establish effective energy-pricing policies that ensure both energy conservation and the stability of the pricing system.
Primordial inflation and the monopole problem
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olive, K.A.; Seckel, D.
1984-01-01
This chapter discusses the cosmological abundance of magnetic monopoles in locally supersymmetry grand unified theories (GUTs) and primordial inflation. It is shown how the magnetic monopole problem can be solved in variants of broken N=1 supergravity primordial inflation. The monopole problem and its solution in inflationary models is reviewed. It is demonstrated that the monopole problem can be solved by coupling primordial inflation to supersymmetric SU(5) breaking
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Channuie, Phongpichit; Jark Joergensen, Jakob; Sannino, Francesco
2011-01-01
We investigate models in which the inflaton emerges as a composite field of a four dimensional, strongly interacting and nonsupersymmetric gauge theory featuring purely fermionic matter. We show that it is possible to obtain successful inflation via non-minimal coupling to gravity, and that the u......We investigate models in which the inflaton emerges as a composite field of a four dimensional, strongly interacting and nonsupersymmetric gauge theory featuring purely fermionic matter. We show that it is possible to obtain successful inflation via non-minimal coupling to gravity...
Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chun, Albert Lee
the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...
Bianchi models and new inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Turner, M.S.; Widrow, L.
1986-03-01
The promise of the inflationary Universe scenario is to free the present state of the Universe from extreme dependence on initial data. Paradoxically, inflation is usually analyzed in the context of the homogeneous and isotropic Robertson-Walker (RW) cosmological models. We show that all but a small subset of the homogeneous models (the Bianchi models) undergo inflation. Any initial anisotropy is so strongly damped that if sufficient inflation occurs to solve the flatness/horizon problems the Universe today would still be very isotropic. Some of the Bianchi models will eventually (in the exponentially distant future) become very anisotropic again. 15 refs
Natural inflation and quantum gravity.
de la Fuente, Anton; Saraswat, Prashant; Sundrum, Raman
2015-04-17
Cosmic inflation provides an attractive framework for understanding the early Universe and the cosmic microwave background. It can readily involve energies close to the scale at which quantum gravity effects become important. General considerations of black hole quantum mechanics suggest nontrivial constraints on any effective field theory model of inflation that emerges as a low-energy limit of quantum gravity, in particular, the constraint of the weak gravity conjecture. We show that higher-dimensional gauge and gravitational dynamics can elegantly satisfy these constraints and lead to a viable, theoretically controlled and predictive class of natural inflation models.
Inflation impact of food prices: Case of Serbia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Šoškić Dejan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Food prices traditionally have an impact on inflation around the world. Movements in these prices are coming more from the supply side, then from the demand side. If treated as a supply shock, monetary policy should not react. However, food prices are part of headline inflation that is an official target for most central banks. Serbia conducts Inflation targeting and faces serious challenges with food price volatility. Food price volatility in Serbia hampers inflation forecasting, and may have a negative influence on inflationary expectations and public confidence in (i.e. credibility of the Central bank, all of crucial importance for success of Inflation targeting. There are several important possible improvements that may decrease volatility of food prices but also limit negative impact of food price volatility on Consumer Price Index (CPI as a measure of inflation. These improvements are very important for success of Inflation targeting in Serbia.
Detection of gravitational waves from inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kamionkowski, M.; Jaffe, A.H.
2001-01-01
Recent measurements of temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) indicate that the Universe is flat and that large-scale structure grew via gravitational infall from primordial adiabatic perturbations. Both of these observations seem to indicate that we are on the right track with inflation. But what is the new physics responsible for inflation? This question can be answered with observations of the polarization of the CMB. Inflation predicts robustly the existence of a stochastic background of cosmological gravitational waves with an amplitude proportional to the square of the energy scale of inflation. This gravitational-wave background induces a unique signature in the polarization of the CMB. If inflation took place at an energy scale much smaller than that of grand unification, then the signal will be too small to be detectable. However, if inflation had something to do with grand unification or Planck-scale physics, then the signal is conceivably detectable in the optimistic case by the Planck satellite, or if not, then by a dedicated post-Planck CMB polarization experiment. Realistic developments in detector technology as well as a proper scan strategy could produce such a post-Planck experiment that would improve on Planck's sensitivity to the gravitational-wave background by several orders of magnitude in a decade timescale. (author)
Gratton, Steven
2011-09-01
In this paper we present a path integral formulation of stochastic inflation. Volume weighting can be naturally implemented from this new perspective in a very straightforward way when compared to conventional Langevin approaches. With an in-depth study of inflation in a quartic potential, we investigate how the inflaton evolves and how inflation typically ends both with and without volume weighting. The calculation can be carried to times beyond those accessible to conventional Fokker-Planck approaches. Perhaps unexpectedly, complex histories sometimes emerge with volume weighting. The reward for this excursion into the complex plane is an insight into how volume-weighted inflation both loses memory of initial conditions and ends via slow roll. The slow-roll end of inflation mitigates certain “Youngness Paradox”-type criticisms of the volume-weighted paradigm. Thus it is perhaps time to rehabilitate proper-time volume weighting as a viable measure for answering at least some interesting cosmological questions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gratton, Steven
2011-01-01
In this paper we present a path integral formulation of stochastic inflation. Volume weighting can be naturally implemented from this new perspective in a very straightforward way when compared to conventional Langevin approaches. With an in-depth study of inflation in a quartic potential, we investigate how the inflaton evolves and how inflation typically ends both with and without volume weighting. The calculation can be carried to times beyond those accessible to conventional Fokker-Planck approaches. Perhaps unexpectedly, complex histories sometimes emerge with volume weighting. The reward for this excursion into the complex plane is an insight into how volume-weighted inflation both loses memory of initial conditions and ends via slow roll. The slow-roll end of inflation mitigates certain ''Youngness Paradox''-type criticisms of the volume-weighted paradigm. Thus it is perhaps time to rehabilitate proper-time volume weighting as a viable measure for answering at least some interesting cosmological questions.
Perturbative analysis of multiple-field cosmological inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lahiri, Joydev; Bhattacharya, Gautam
2006-01-01
We develop a general formalism for analyzing linear perturbations in multiple-field cosmological inflation based on the gauge-ready approach. Our inflationary model consists of an arbitrary number of scalar fields with non-minimal kinetic terms. We solve the equations for scalar- and tensor-type perturbations during inflation to the first order in slow roll, and then obtain the super-horizon solutions for adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations after inflation. Analytic expressions for power-spectra and spectral indices arising from multiple-field inflation are presented
The Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nazima Ellahi
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Inflation is not just a rise in general price level, but a much more complex phenomenon. It is well admitted fact that mild inflation is natural and a greasing factor to the wheel of economy and commerce and on the other hand, high inflation causes negative impact on economy. In order to formulate policies regarding its control and keeping it at a moderate level, it is necessary to explore its major determinants. Present study is an attempt to discuss the determinants of inflation in Pakistan utilizing a data set over 1975 to 2015. The empirical analysis is carried out with application of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag methodology. The estimation methods find the short run and long run impact of each variable on inflation and also found the speed of adjustment. Analysis used money supply, national expenditure, imports of goods and services and GDP growth as exogenous variables while taking inflation as an endogenous variable. Major preliminary findings suggested that money supply and national expenditure have significant effect on inflation, where national expenditure has a positive impact on inflation but money supply implies negative impact on inflation. Moreover, GDP growth has negative impact on inflation and imports of goods and services have positive impact on inflation. The findings for short run effect showed that none of the variable proves to be a significant determinant of inflation in short run. In sum, study suggested a few policy recommendations for keeping the inflation at level required for country to grow.
Multifield DBI Inflation and Non-Gaussianities
Huang, Min-xin; Underwood, Bret
2008-01-01
We analyze the trajectories for multifield DBI inflation, which can arise in brane inflation models, and show that the trajectories are the same as in typical slow roll inflation. We calculate the power spectrum and find that the higher derivative terms of the DBI action lead to a suppression of the contribution from the isocurvature perturbations. We also calculate the bispectrum generated by the isocurvature perturbation, and find that it leads to distinctive features.
Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion
Chao Wei
2007-01-01
Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) use VAR results to advocate inflation illusion as the explanation for the positive association between inflation and the dividend yield. Contrary to their results, we find that a fully rational dynamic general equilibrium model can generate a positive correlation between the dividend yield and inflation of comparable size to its data counterpart. The model results support a proxy hypothesis, according to which, a third factor, which in our model represents tech...
Inflation Dynamics in India: An Analysis
Nair, Manju S
2014-01-01
India has exhibited high variability in inflation during the last eight years owing to both internal and external factors. The Global Financial Meltdown, recurrent increase in global oil prices, wage employment programmes, widening current account deficits etc resulted in fluctuations in inflation. These factors have a direct influence on variables like output, money supply, exchange rate which in turn affect inflation. In this context, the study employs a Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressi...
Towards natural inflation in string theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ben-Dayan, Ido; Pedro, Francisco G.; Westphal, Alexander
2014-07-01
We provide type IIB string embeddings of two axion variants of natural inflation. We use a combination of RR 2 form axions as the inflaton field and have its potential generated by non perturbative effects in the superpotential. Besides giving rise to inflation, the models developed take into account the stabilization of the compact space, both in the KKLT and large volume scenario regimes, an essential condition for any semi-realistic model of string inflation.
THE PROSPECT OF INFLATION TARGETING IN KAZAKHSTAN
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhandos Ybrayev
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Over the last two decades, there has been a significant increase in the number of countries that began to pursue an Inflation Targeting monetary policy framework. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, each of the fifteen newly created independent countries started to develop and run their own autonomous monetary policies. Kazakhstan announced the implementation of an Inflation Targeting policy in August 2015. At the same time, a number of researches show that Inflation Targeting might not work as well for developing countries as it does for developed ones due to certain fundamental differences and preconditions that must be met before the implementation phase. Thus, this paper discusses the case of Kazakhstan as a typical emerging market economy example, examines its ability to respond to various external shocks and identifies the main transmission channels in order to contribute to the knowledge in this particular area. Identification assumptions generate contemporaneous monetary shocks on domestic inflation behavior, which also take into account various features of the small open economy as well as indicate different important transitory and persistent effects. The results show, based on the interpretation of impulse response functions, a positive interest rate shock has an uncertain inflationary impact, which raises questions about the effectiveness of interest rate manipulation in keeping inflation within the given band. In addition, a positive exchange rate shock leads to a stronger upward pressure in inflation rates. Finally, inflation inertia explains a substantial increase in future inflation rates.
Fibre inflation and α-attractors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kallosh, Renata; Linde, Andrei [Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States). Stanford Inst. for Theoretical Physics and Dept. of Physics; Leiden Univ. (Netherlands). Lorentz Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Roest, Diederik [Groningen Univ. (Netherlands). Van Swinderen Inst. for Particle Physics and Gravity; Westphal, Alexander [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Yamada, Yusuke [Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States). Stanford Inst. for Theoretical Physics and Dept. of Physics
2017-07-15
Fibre inflation is a specific string theory construction based on the Large Volume Scenario that produces an inflationary plateau. We outline its relation to α-attractor models for inflation, with the cosmological sector originating from certain string theory corrections leading to α=2 and α=1/2. Above a certain field range, the steepening effect of higher-order corrections leads first to the breakdown of single-field slow-roll and after that to the onset of 2-field dynamics: the overall volume of the extra dimensions starts to participate in the effective dynamics. Finally, we propose effective supergravity models of fibre inflation based on an D3 uplift term with a nilpotent superfield. Specific moduli dependent D3 induced geometries lead to cosmological fibre models but have in addition a de Sitter minimum exit. These supergravity models motivated by fibre inflation are relatively simple, stabilize the axions and disentangle the Hubble parameter from supersymmetry breaking.
Fibre inflation and α-attractors
Kallosh, Renata; Linde, Andrei; Roest, Diederik; Westphal, Alexander; Yamada, Yusuke
2018-02-01
Fibre inflation is a specific string theory construction based on the Large Volume Scenario that produces an inflationary plateau. We outline its relation to α-attractor models for inflation, with the cosmological sector originating from certain string theory corrections leading to α = 2 and α = 1/2. Above a certain field range, the steepening effect of higher-order corrections leads first to the breakdown of single-field slow-roll and after that to the onset of 2-field dynamics: the overall volume of the extra dimensions starts to participate in the effective dynamics. Finally, we propose effective supergravity models of fibre inflation based on an \\overline{D3} uplift term with a nilpotent superfield. Specific moduli dependent \\overline{D3} induced geometries lead to cosmological fibre models but have in addition a de Sitter minimum exit. These supergravity models motivated by fibre inflation are relatively simple, stabilize the axions and disentangle the Hubble parameter from supersymmetry breaking.
The conceptual framework of the impact of money supply on economic growth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Palesheva Nadezhda
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Lately, in political and economic circles, a fierce debate on the need for additional monetary emission in Russia. The debate continues to this day. A number of economists and entrepreneurs are convinced of the need for cash injection into our economy to stimulate economic growth. They claim that lack of money hinders economic growth, because the lack of financial resources is hampering investment. At the same time criticized the Central Bank for a set them high key interest rate today at 10 %, which hampers not only investment in the real sector of the economy, but the current actual production. After all, profitability in most sectors of the real economy below 10%. Other economists, including the Government of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the country, hold the opposite point of view. They believe high inflation is the main constraining economic growth factor. According to them, only after a drop in inflation, the Russian economy will be able to start growth, and additional money creation will only fuel inflation. Therefore, the first step is to suppress the rising prices, lowering inflation to 4% per annum. In this direction and concentrated all the efforts of the monetary authorities, which are primarily in the key interest rate and limit the supply of money. Of course, the dispute about such issues as stimulating economic growth by an additional cash infusion, should be resolved through analysis of the theoretical foundations and the empirical data obtained in practice, as in Russia and other countries of the world.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dvali, Gia
2003-10-03
We propose a new class of inflationary solutions to the standard cosmological problems (horizon, flatness, monopole,...), based on a modification of old inflation. These models do not require a potential which satisfies the normal inflationary slow-roll conditions. Our universe arises from a single tunneling event as the inflaton leaves the false vacuum. Subsequent dynamics (arising from either the oscillations of the inflaton field or thermal effects) keep a second field trapped in a false minimum, resulting in an evanescent period of inflation (with roughly 50 e-foldings) inside the bubble. This easily allows the bubble to grow sufficiently large to contain our present horizon volume. Reheating is accomplished when the inflaton driving the last stage of inflation rolls down to the true vacuum, and adiabatic density perturbations arise from moduli-dependent Yukawa couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Our scenario has several robust predictions, including virtual absence of gravity waves, a possible absence of tilt in scalar perturbations, and a higher degree of non-Gaussianity than other models. It also naturally incorporates a solution to the cosmological moduli problem.
Low-ℓ power suppression in punctuated inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qureshi, Mussadiq H.; Iqbal, Asif; Malik, Manzoor A.; Souradeep, Tarun
2017-01-01
Motivated by Planck confirmation of an anomalously low value of the CMB temperature fluctuations up to multipole ℓ < 40, we in this paper try to explain such feature by investigating case of punctuated inflation scenario. This form of inflation potential is inspired by Minimal Super-symmetric Standard Model (MSSM) wherein suppression of curvature perturbation power at large scales is produced by introducing period of fast-roll phase of the inflation sandwiched between two stages of slow-roll phase. We apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to determine posterior distribution and the best fit values of the model parameters using recent WMAP9 and Planck data. We show that WMAP9 and Planck results are consistent with each other and that with Planck data we obtain tighter constraints for punctuated inflation parameters. We find that punctuated inflation leads to better fit in CMB data compared to simple power law model. The improvement in the fit to the WMAP9 data is Δ χ 2 ∼ 3.6 and for Planck the improvement is Δ χ 2 ∼ 5.4. We find that AIC does not discriminate between punctuated inflation and simple power law model for WMAP9 data. However, for Planck data we find that punctuated inflation is moderately preferred over a simple power law model.
Seven lessons from manyfield inflation in random potentials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dias, Mafalda; Frazer, Jonathan; Marsh, M.C. David
2017-06-01
We study inflation in models with many interacting fields subject to randomly generated scalar potentials. We use methods from non-equilibrium random matrix theory to construct the potentials and an adaption of the 'transport method' to evolve the two-point correlators during inflation. This construction allows, for the first time, for an explicit study of models with up to 100 interacting fields supporting a period of 'approximately saddle-point' inflation. We determine the statistical predictions for observables by generating over 30,000 models with 2-100 fields supporting at least 60 efolds of inflation. These studies lead us to seven lessons: i) Manyfield inflation is not single-field inflation, ii) The larger the number of fields, the simpler and sharper the predictions, iii) Planck compatibility is not rare, but future experiments may rule out this class of models, iv) The smoother the potentials, the sharper the predictions, v) Hyperparameters can transition from stiff to sloppy, vi) Despite tachyons, isocurvature can decay, vii) Eigenvalue repulsion drives the predictions. We conclude that many of the 'generic predictions' of single-field inflation can be emergent features of complex inflation models.
Seven lessons from manyfield inflation in random potentials
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dias, Mafalda; Frazer, Jonathan [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Marsh, M.C. David [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Appllied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
2017-06-15
We study inflation in models with many interacting fields subject to randomly generated scalar potentials. We use methods from non-equilibrium random matrix theory to construct the potentials and an adaption of the 'transport method' to evolve the two-point correlators during inflation. This construction allows, for the first time, for an explicit study of models with up to 100 interacting fields supporting a period of 'approximately saddle-point' inflation. We determine the statistical predictions for observables by generating over 30,000 models with 2-100 fields supporting at least 60 efolds of inflation. These studies lead us to seven lessons: i) Manyfield inflation is not single-field inflation, ii) The larger the number of fields, the simpler and sharper the predictions, iii) Planck compatibility is not rare, but future experiments may rule out this class of models, iv) The smoother the potentials, the sharper the predictions, v) Hyperparameters can transition from stiff to sloppy, vi) Despite tachyons, isocurvature can decay, vii) Eigenvalue repulsion drives the predictions. We conclude that many of the 'generic predictions' of single-field inflation can be emergent features of complex inflation models.
Does Education Corrupt? Theories of Grade Inflation
Oleinik, Anton
2009-01-01
Several theories of grade inflation are discussed in this review article. It is argued that grade inflation results from the substitution of criteria specific to the search for truth by criteria of quality control generated outside of academia. Particular mechanisms of the grade inflation that occurs when a university is transformed into a…
The 'cultural inflation of morbidity' during the English mortality decline: a new look.
Gorsky, Martin; Guntupalli, Aravinda; Harris, Bernard; Hinde, Andrew
2011-12-01
This article contributes to the debate about using insurance records to reconstruct historical experiences of sickness during the Western mortality transition. Critics regard these sources as problematic as they measure morbidity indirectly through absences from work; these might be determined not by timeless biological criteria but by more contingent factors, notably shifting norms surrounding the sick role and responses to economic incentives (for which we adopt the generic term 'cultural inflation of morbidity'). We review historical demographers' contributions to this literature and discuss the concepts of moral hazard and the principal/agent problem as developed by health economists. This leads us to frame three empirical tests for 'cultural inflation' which allow us to assess the validity of insurance records for deriving morbidity trends: was there an increasing frequency of claims for complaints of diminishing severity; were unduly prolonged claims noticeable, particularly by older people for whom sickness benefit may have compensated for income insecurity; and did the insurer satisfactorily manage the agency problem to ensure reliable physician gatekeeping? We analyse records of the Hampshire Friendly Society, an exceptionally well-documented fund operational in Southern England, 1825-1989. Findings are based on a dataset of individual sickness histories of a sample of 5552 men and on qualitative documentary analysis of administrative records. On each count our results fail to demonstrate a cultural inflation of morbidity, except perhaps for those aged over 65. However, occasional discussion in the administrative records of economic incentives encouraging unnecessary prolongation of claims means we cannot rule it out entirely. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Long-term economic outlook. Annual review
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1988-01-01
This review provides economic growth forecast tables for Ontario, Canada, the US, Western Europe, and Japan. Economic growth, government policy, the long-term prospects for inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, trends in the Canadian dollar, and energy markets and prices are also reviewed. Data generally cover 1965-2025. Appendices give a summary of historical and forecast data. 18 figs., 16 tabs.
Oil price pass-through into inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen, Shiu-Sheng
2009-01-01
This paper uses data from 19 industrialized countries to investigate oil price pass-through into inflation across countries and over time. A time-varying pass-through coefficient is estimated and the determinants of the recent declining effects of oil shocks on inflation are investigated. The appreciation of the domestic currency, a more active monetary policy in response to inflation, and a higher degree of trade openness are found to explain the decline in oil price pass-through. (author)
The chaotic regime of D-term inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buchmüller, W. [DESY, Notkestrasse 85, 22607 Hamburg (Germany); Domcke, V. [SISSA/INFN, Via Bonomea 265, 34136 Trieste (Italy); Schmitz, K., E-mail: wilfried.buchmueller@desy.de, E-mail: valerie.domcke@sissa.it, E-mail: kai.schmitz@ipmu.jp [Kavli IPMU (WPI), University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa (Japan)
2014-11-01
We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.
The chaotic regime of D-term inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buchmueller, W. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Domcke, V. [SISSA/INFN, Triest (Italy); Schmitz, K. [Kavli IPMU (WPI), Kashiwa (Japan)
2014-08-15
We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.
The chaotic regime of D-term inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buchmueller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.
2014-08-01
We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.
The chaotic regime of D-term inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.
2014-01-01
We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'
The chaotic regime of D-term inflation
Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.
2014-11-01
We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of `chaotic inflation'.
Inflation, Exchange Rates and the Conceptual Framework: The FASB’s Debates from 1973 to 1984
Detzen, D.
2014-01-01
In this article, I explain how two economic forces of the 1970s and 1980s, volatile exchange rates and inflation, provided a constant and compelling backdrop to the FASB’s debates on its conceptual framework. While it has been acknowledged that rising prices contributed to a move towards greater
Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
María de la O eGonzález
2016-03-01
Full Text Available We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.
Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior
González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S.
2016-01-01
We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation. PMID:27047418
Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior.
González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S
2016-01-01
We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.
CMB spectral distortion constraints on thermal inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cho, Kihyun; Stewart, Ewan D. [Department of Physics, KAIST, Daejeon 34141 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Sungwook E. [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of); Zoe, Heeseung, E-mail: cho_physics@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: heezoe@dgist.ac.kr, E-mail: jcap@profstewart.org, E-mail: heezoe@dgist.ac.kr [School of Undergraduate Studies, College of Transdisciplinary Studies, Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology (DGIST), Daegu 42988 (Korea, Republic of)
2017-08-01
Thermal inflation is a second epoch of exponential expansion at typical energy scales V {sup 1/4} ∼ 10{sup 6} {sup ∼} {sup 8} GeV. If the usual primordial inflation is followed by thermal inflation, the primordial power spectrum is only modestly redshifted on large scales, but strongly suppressed on scales smaller than the horizon size at the beginning of thermal inflation, k > k {sub b} = a {sub b} H {sub b}. We calculate the spectral distortion of the cosmic microwave background generated by the dissipation of acoustic waves in this context. For k {sub b} || 10{sup 3} Mpc{sup −1}, thermal inflation results in a large suppression of the μ-distortion amplitude, predicting that it falls well below the standard value of μ ≅ 2× 10{sup −8}. Thus, future spectral distortion experiments, similar to PIXIE, can place new limits on the thermal inflation scenario, constraining k {sub b} ∼> 10{sup 3} Mpc{sup −1} if μ ≅ 2× 10{sup −8} were found.
Effects of thermal inflation on small scale density perturbations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hong, Sungwook E. [School of Physics, Korea Institute for Advanced Study, 85 Hoegiro, Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Hyung-Joo; Lee, Young Jae; Stewart, Ewan D. [Department of Physics, KAIST, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of); Zoe, Heeseung, E-mail: swhong@kias.re.kr, E-mail: ohsk111@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: noasac@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: jcap@profstewart.org, E-mail: heezoe@dgist.ac.kr [School of Basic Science, Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology (DGIST), 333 Techno jungang-daero, Daegu 711-873 (Korea, Republic of)
2015-06-01
In cosmological scenarios with thermal inflation, extra eras of moduli matter domination, thermal inflation and flaton matter domination exist between primordial inflation and the radiation domination of Big Bang nucleosynthesis. During these eras, cosmological perturbations on small scales can enter and re-exit the horizon, modifying the power spectrum on those scales. The largest modified scale, k{sub b}, touches the horizon size when the expansion changes from deflation to inflation at the transition from moduli domination to thermal inflation. We analytically calculate the evolution of perturbations from moduli domination through thermal inflation and evaluate the curvature perturbation on the constant radiation density hypersurface at the end of thermal inflation to determine the late time curvature perturbation. Our resulting transfer function suppresses the power spectrum by a factor 0∼ 5 at k >> k{sub b}, with k{sub b} corresponding to anywhere from megaparsec to subparsec scales depending on the parameters of thermal inflation. Thus, thermal inflation might be constrained or detected by small scale observations such as CMB distortions or 21cm hydrogen line observations.
CERN. Geneva
2015-01-01
After reviewing the nice properties of Higgs inflation and some of its problems, I will discuss a simple unitarization of the scenario that is genuinely weakly coupled up to Planckian energies. A large non-minimal coupling between the Higgs and the Ricci curvature is induced dynamically at intermediate energies, as a simple ratio of mass scales. Inflationary dynamics is not dominated by the Higgs field, but 'Higgs inflation' arises as an approximate 'mirage' picture of the true dynamics. I will speculate on the generality of this phenomenon and show that, if Higgs-inflation arises as an effective description, the details of the UV completion are necessary to extract robust quantitative predictions.
Inflatable Antennas Support Emergency Communication
2010-01-01
Glenn Research Center awarded Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts to ManTech SRS Technologies, of Newport Beach, California, to develop thin film inflatable antennas for space communication. With additional funding, SRS modified the concepts for ground-based inflatable antennas. GATR (Ground Antenna Transmit and Receive) Technologies, of Huntsville, Alabama, licensed the technology and refined it to become the world s first inflatable antenna certified by the Federal Communications Commission. Capable of providing Internet access, voice over Internet protocol, e-mail, video teleconferencing, broadcast television, and other high-bandwidth communications, the systems have provided communication during the wildfires in California, after Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi, and following the 2010 Haiti earthquake.
Hybrid inflation in the complex plane
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buchmueller, W.; Domcke, V.; Kamada, K.; Schmitz, K.
2014-04-01
Supersymmetric hybrid inflation is an exquisite framework to connect inflationary cosmology to particle physics at the scale of grand unification. Ending in a phase transition associated with spontaneous symmetry breaking, it can naturally explain the generation of entropy, matter and dark matter. Coupling F-term hybrid inflation to soft supersymmetry breaking distorts the rotational invariance in the complex inflaton plane - an important fact, which has been neglected in all previous studies. Based on the δN formalism, we analyze the cosmological perturbations for the first time in the full two-field model, also taking into account the fast-roll dynamics at and after the end of inflation. As a consequence of the two-field nature of hybrid inflation, the predictions for the primordial fluctuations depend not only on the parameters of the Lagrangian, but are eventually fixed by the choice of the inflationary trajectory. Recognizing hybrid inflation as a two-field model resolves two shortcomings often times attributed to it: The fine-tuning problem of the initial conditions is greatly relaxed and a spectral index in accordance with the PLANCK data can be achieved in a large part of the parameter space without the aid of supergravity corrections. Our analysis can be easily generalized to other (including large-field) scenarios of inflation in which soft supersymmetry breaking transforms an initially single-field model into a multi-field model.
On the burst of branched polymer melts during inflation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Henrik K.; Yu, Kaijia
2008-01-01
Two molten low-density polyethylene melts, shaped as plates, have been inflated into a circular cylinder during isothermal conditions. Lowering the inflation rates allow the plates to be inflated into a larger volume of the cylinder before bursting. Numerical simulations of the inflations have been...
Delaying the waterfall transition in warm hybrid inflation
Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun; Metcalf, Thomas P.; Rosa, João G.
2014-01-01
We analyze the dynamics and observational predictions of supersymmetric hybrid inflation in the warm regime, where dissipative effects are mediated by the waterfall fields and their subsequent decay into light degrees of freedom. This produces a quasi-thermal radiation bath with a slowly-varying temperature during inflation and further damps the inflaton's motion, thus prolonging inflation. As in the standard supercooled scenario, inflation ends when the waterfall fields become tachyonic and ...
Theories of inflation and conformal transformations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kalara, S.; Kaloper, N.; Olive, K.A.
1990-01-01
We show that several different theories of inflation including R 2 , Brans-Dicke, and induced-gravity inflation are all related to generalized or power-law inflation by means of conformal transformations. These theories all involve non-standard gravity, and the use of conformal transformations allows one to obtain standard inflationary predictions such as the expansion time-scale, reheating and density perturbations in each case very simply. We also discuss the possibilities of this method to be applied to string theory. (orig.)
Venezuela's Economic Recovery: Is It Sustainable?
Jake Johnston; Mark Weisbrot
2012-01-01
Venezuela’s current growth is generally described as unsustainable, with various negative scenarios put forth, including spiraling debt, inflation, and balance of payments crises. However, these pessimistic forecasts have been far off the mark for most of the past decade. This paper looks at the available economic data to see if Venezuela’s economic recovery could be sustained, or even accelerated. It finds that Venezuela’s current economic growth is sustainable and could continue at the curr...
Economic Multipliers and Mega-Event Analysis
Victor Matheson
2004-01-01
Critics of economic impact studies that purport to show that mega-events such as the Olympics bring large benefits to the communities “lucky” enough to host them frequently cite the use of inappropriate multipliers as a primary reason why these impact studies overstate the true economic gains to the hosts of these events. This brief paper shows in a numerical example how mega-events may lead to inflated multipliers and exaggerated claims of economic benefits.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
WEI-BIN ZHANG
2014-05-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to study global monetary economic growth with heterogeneous households under free trade. The paper examines dynamics of global and national wealth and income distribution in association with monetary economic growth within an integrated framework. Money is introduced via the cash-in-advance (CIA approach. We show that the dynamics of the world economy (with any number of countries is described by a set of differential equations. We simulate equilibrium of the global economy with three countries and two types of households in each country. We also demonstrate effects of changes in technology and inflation policy. Our model demonstrates, as Grier and Grier (2007 empirically show, that the global economy exhibits absolute divergence in output levels if some determinants of steady state income are different. The study shows that as one country increases its inflation policy, the equilibrium values of the global output, consumption level and physical wealth are enhanced, and the rate of interest is lowered. The country which raises its inflation policy benefits in every aspect, but the other countries suffer in some aspects and benefit in others.
When Parents’ Praise Inflates, Children's Self-Esteem Deflates
Brummelman, Eddie; Nelemans, Stefanie A.; Thomaes, Sander; Orobio De Castro, Bram
2017-01-01
Western parents often give children overly positive, inflated praise. One perspective holds that inflated praise sets unattainable standards for children, eventually lowering children's self-esteem (self-deflation hypothesis). Another perspective holds that children internalize inflated praise to
Towards matter inflation in heterotic string theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Antusch, Stefan; Erdmenger, Johanna; Halter, Sebastian; Dutta, Koushik
2011-02-01
Recently, a class of inflation models in supergravity with gauge non-singlet matter fields as the inflaton has been proposed. It is based on a 'tribrid' structure in the superpotential and on a 'Heisenberg symmetry' for solving the η-problem. We suggest that a generalization of this model class may be suitable for realising inflation in heterotic orbifold compactifications, where the Heisenberg symmetry is a property of the tree-level Kaehler potential of untwisted matter fields. We discuss moduli stabilization in this setup and propose a mechanism to stabilize the modulus associated to the inflaton, which respects the symmetry in the large radius limit. Inflation ends via a waterfall phase transition, as in hybrid inflation. We give conditions which have to be satisfied for realising inflation along these lines in the matter sector of heterotic orbifolds. (orig.)
A viable D-term hybrid inflation model
Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Sumita, Keigo
2017-11-01
We propose a new model of the D-term hybrid inflation in the framework of supergravity. Although our model introduces, analogously to the conventional D-term inflation, the inflaton and a pair of scalar fields charged under a U(1) gauge symmetry, we study the logarithmic and exponential dependence on the inflaton field, respectively, for the Kähler and superpotential. This results in a characteristic one-loop scalar potential consisting of linear and exponential terms, which realizes the small-field inflation dominated by the Fayet-Iliopoulos term. With the reasonable values for the coupling coefficients and, in particular, with the U(1) gauge coupling constant comparable to that of the Standard Model, our D-term inflation model can solve the notorious problems in the conventional D-term inflation, namely, the CMB constraints on the spectral index and the generation of cosmic strings.
Classical anisotropies in models of open inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garriga, J.; Mukhanov, V.F.
1997-01-01
In the simplest model of open inflation there are two inflaton fields decoupled from each other. One of them, the tunneling field, produces a first stage of inflation which prepares the ground for the nucleation of a highly symmetric bubble. The other, a free field, drives a second period of slow-roll inflation inside the bubble. However, the second field also evolves during the first stage of inflation, which to some extent breaks the needed symmetry. We show that this generates large supercurvature anisotropies which, together with the results of Tanaka and Sasaki, rule out this class of simple models (unless, of course, Ω 0 is sufficiently close to 1). The problem does not arise in modified models where the second field does not evolve in the first stage of inflation. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society
Towards matter inflation in heterotic string theory
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Antusch, Stefan; Erdmenger, Johanna; Halter, Sebastian [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Muenchen (Germany); Dutta, Koushik [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)
2011-02-15
Recently, a class of inflation models in supergravity with gauge non-singlet matter fields as the inflaton has been proposed. It is based on a 'tribrid' structure in the superpotential and on a 'Heisenberg symmetry' for solving the {eta}-problem. We suggest that a generalization of this model class may be suitable for realising inflation in heterotic orbifold compactifications, where the Heisenberg symmetry is a property of the tree-level Kaehler potential of untwisted matter fields. We discuss moduli stabilization in this setup and propose a mechanism to stabilize the modulus associated to the inflaton, which respects the symmetry in the large radius limit. Inflation ends via a waterfall phase transition, as in hybrid inflation. We give conditions which have to be satisfied for realising inflation along these lines in the matter sector of heterotic orbifolds. (orig.)
46 CFR 506.3 - Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment.
2010-10-01
... 46 Shipping 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment. 506.3... PENALTY INFLATION ADJUSTMENT § 506.3 Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment. The Commission shall... each civil monetary penalty provided by law within the jurisdiction of the Commission by the inflation...
Helical Phase Inflation and Monodromy in Supergravity Theory
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tianjun Li
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We study helical phase inflation which realizes “monodromy inflation” in supergravity theory. In the model, inflation is driven by the phase component of a complex field whose potential possesses helicoid structure. We construct phase monodromy based on explicitly breaking global U(1 symmetry in the superpotential. By integrating out heavy fields, the phase monodromy from single complex scalar field is realized and the model fulfills natural inflation. The phase-axion alignment is achieved from explicitly symmetry breaking and gives super-Planckian phase decay constant. The F-term scalar potential provides strong field stabilization for all the scalars except inflaton, which is protected by the approximate global U(1 symmetry. Besides, we show that helical phase inflation can be naturally realized in no-scale supergravity with SU(2,1/SU(2×U(1 symmetry since the supergravity setup needed for phase monodromy is automatically provided in the no-scale Kähler potential. We also demonstrate that helical phase inflation can be reduced to another well-known supergravity inflation model with shift symmetry. Helical phase inflation is free from the UV-sensitivity problem although there is super-Planckian field excursion, and it suggests that inflation can be effectively studied based on supersymmetric field theory while a UV-completed framework is not prerequisite.
Low-ℓ power suppression in punctuated inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Qureshi, Mussadiq H.; Iqbal, Asif; Malik, Manzoor A. [Department of Physics, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir 190006 (India); Souradeep, Tarun, E-mail: mussadiqqureshi111@gmail.com, E-mail: asifiqbal@kashmiruniversity.net, E-mail: mmalik@kashmiruniversity.ac.in, E-mail: tarun@iucaa.in [Inter-University Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Post Bag 4, Ganeshkhind, Pune 411007 (India)
2017-04-01
Motivated by Planck confirmation of an anomalously low value of the CMB temperature fluctuations up to multipole ℓ < 40, we in this paper try to explain such feature by investigating case of punctuated inflation scenario. This form of inflation potential is inspired by Minimal Super-symmetric Standard Model (MSSM) wherein suppression of curvature perturbation power at large scales is produced by introducing period of fast-roll phase of the inflation sandwiched between two stages of slow-roll phase. We apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to determine posterior distribution and the best fit values of the model parameters using recent WMAP9 and Planck data. We show that WMAP9 and Planck results are consistent with each other and that with Planck data we obtain tighter constraints for punctuated inflation parameters. We find that punctuated inflation leads to better fit in CMB data compared to simple power law model. The improvement in the fit to the WMAP9 data is Δ χ{sup 2} ∼ 3.6 and for Planck the improvement is Δ χ{sup 2} ∼ 5.4. We find that AIC does not discriminate between punctuated inflation and simple power law model for WMAP9 data. However, for Planck data we find that punctuated inflation is moderately preferred over a simple power law model.
Sneutrino warm inflation in the minimal supersymmetric model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun
2005-01-01
The model of RH neutrino fields coupled to the MSSM is shown to yield a large parameter regime of warm inflation. In the strong dissipative regime, it is shown that inflation, driven by a single sneutrino field, occurs with all field amplitudes below the Planck scale. Analysis is also made of leptogenesis, neutrino mass generation and gravitino constraints. A new warm inflation scenario is purposed in which one scalar field drives a period of warm inflation and a second field drives a subsequent phase of reheating. Such a model is able to reduce the final temperature after inflation, thus helping to mitigate gravitino constraints
Inflation in a shear-or curvature-dominated universe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Steigman, G.; Turner, M.S.
1983-01-01
We show that new inflation occurs even if the universe is shear-or (negative) curvature-dominated when the phase transition begins. In such situations the size of a causally coherent region, after inflation, is only slightly smaller (by powers, but not by exponential factors) than the usual result. The creation and evolution of density perturbations is unaffected. This result is marked contrast to 'old' inflation, where shear- or curvature-domination could quench inflation. (orig.)
The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India
Naresh Kumar Sharma; Motilal Bicchal
2018-01-01
Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey respondents do not form expectations rationally, regardless of the reference measures of inflation used. Further, results indicate that inflation expectations are formed purely in backward-looking manner, sugge...
26 CFR 1.1275-7 - Inflation-indexed debt instruments.
2010-04-01
... 26 Internal Revenue 11 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Inflation-indexed debt instruments. 1.1275-7... Inflation-indexed debt instruments. (a) Overview. This section provides rules for the Federal income tax treatment of an inflation-indexed debt instrument. If a debt instrument is an inflation-indexed debt...
2014-12-01
have to do so in the water. Shortly thereafter, the Survival Research Unit at CAMI devel- oped a prototype life preserver, with a primary goal of...calculate the various donning function times, as defined below. These were entered into IBM SPSS ® version 21 for statistical analysis. “TSO Test Time...inflation tubes, manual inflation triggering devices with pull tabs and CO2 cartridges, and designed to be reversible. The experimental life preserver
Inflation gifts and endogenous growth through learning-by-doing
Andrea Vaona
2013-01-01
We investigate the link between inflation, growth and unemployment nesting a model of fair wages into one of endogenous growth of learning by doing and assuming that firms protect wages' purchasing power against inflation in exchange of worker's effort. Unemployment decreases with higher inflation and real growth rates. These effects tends to vanish as inflation and growth increase. Depending on the assumptions on learning-by-doing mechanisms, the effect of inflation on growth can be either n...
Inflation as de Sitter instability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cadoni, Mariano; Franzin, Edgardo [Universita di Cagliari, Cittadella Universitaria, Dipartimento di Fisica, Monserrato (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Cagliari, Monserrato (Italy); Mignemi, Salvatore [INFN, Sezione di Cagliari, Monserrato (Italy); Universita di Cagliari, Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Cagliari (Italy)
2016-09-15
We consider cosmological inflation generated by a scalar field slowly rolling off from a de Sitter maximum of its potential. The models belong to the class of hilltop models and represent the most general model of this kind in which the scalar potential can be written as the sum of two exponentials. The minimally coupled Einstein-scalar gravity theory obtained in this way is the cosmological version of a two-scale generalization of known holographic models, allowing for solitonic solutions interpolating between an AdS spacetime in the infrared and scaling solutions in the ultraviolet. We then investigate cosmological inflation in the slow-roll approximation. Our model reproduces correctly, for a wide range of its parameters, the most recent experimental data for the power spectrum of primordial perturbations. Moreover, it predicts inflation at energy scales of four to five orders of magnitude below the Planck scale. At the onset of inflation, the mass of the tachyonic excitation, i.e. of the inflaton, turns out to be seven to eight orders of magnitude smaller than the Planck mass. (orig.)
Dark energy in hybrid inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gong, Jinn-Ouk; Kim, Seongcheol
2007-01-01
The situation that a scalar field provides the source of the accelerated expansion of the Universe while rolling down its potential is common in both the simple models of the primordial inflation and the quintessence-based dark energy models. Motivated by this point, we address the possibility of causing the current acceleration via the primordial inflation using a simple model based on hybrid inflation. We trigger the onset of the motion of the quintessence field via the waterfall field, and find that the fate of the Universe depends on the true vacuum energy determined by choosing the parameters. We also briefly discuss the variation of the equation of state and the possible implementation of our scenario in supersymmetric theories
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barbón, J.L.F.; Casas, J.A. [IFT-UAM/CSIC, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,C/Nicolás Cabrera 13, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Elias-Miró, J. [Departament de Física/IFAE, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,Edifici Cn, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Espinosa, J.R. [ICREA/IFAE, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,Edifici Cn, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain)
2015-09-04
We discuss a simple unitarization of Higgs inflation that is genuinely weakly coupled up to Planckian energies. A large non-minimal coupling between the Higgs and the Ricci curvature is induced dynamically at intermediate energies, as a simple ratio of mass scales. Despite not being dominated by the Higgs field, inflationary dynamics simulates the ‘Higgs inflation’ one would get by blind extrapolation of the low-energy effective Lagrangian, at least qualitatively. Hence, Higgs inflation arises as an approximate ‘mirage’ picture of the true dynamics. We further speculate on the generality of this phenomenon and show that, if Higgs-inflation arises as an effective description, the details of the UV completion are necessary to extract robust quantitative predictions.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barbón, J.L.F.; Casas, J.A.; Elias-Miró, J.; Espinosa, J.R.
2015-01-01
We discuss a simple unitarization of Higgs inflation that is genuinely weakly coupled up to Planckian energies. A large non-minimal coupling between the Higgs and the Ricci curvature is induced dynamically at intermediate energies, as a simple ratio of mass scales. Despite not being dominated by the Higgs field, inflationary dynamics simulates the ‘Higgs inflation’ one would get by blind extrapolation of the low-energy effective Lagrangian, at least qualitatively. Hence, Higgs inflation arises as an approximate ‘mirage’ picture of the true dynamics. We further speculate on the generality of this phenomenon and show that, if Higgs-inflation arises as an effective description, the details of the UV completion are necessary to extract robust quantitative predictions.
Inflation and Growth: Positive or Negative Relationship?
Berument, Hakan; Inamlik, Ali; Olgun, Hasan
This study has been motivated by two developments. Firstly, by the vast literature on the relationship between inflation and growth which is abundantly endowed with diverse theoretical explanations and contradictory evidence and by the unique experience of the Turkish economy with inflation and growth. A preliminary examination of the Turkish data pointed to a negative relation between inflation and growth. Moreover, there is a unanimous agreement among the students of the Turkish economy that many factors have contributed to inflation in this country. In view of these facts this paper employs a VAR model which will enable us to identify the sources of the shocks and control for external factors. In addition VAR models have a high predictive power and enable the researcher to observe the impulse response functions. The study employs Generalised Impulse Response analysis. In the empirical experiments oil prices, money supply, government spending and taxes have been taken as the most likely determinants of inflation. The study shows that there is a negative relationship between inflation and output growth in Turkey and that the underlying explanatory factor is the real exchange rate. This result is robust.
Plateau inflation in R-parity violating MSSM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Girish Kumar Chakravarty
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Inflation with plateau potentials give the best fit to the CMB observables as they predict tensor to scalar ratio stringently bounded by the observations from Planck and BICEP2/Keck. In supergravity models it is possible to obtain plateau potentials for scalar fields in the Einstein frame which can serve as the inflation potential by considering higher dimensional Planck suppressed operators and by the choice of non-canonical Kähler potentials. We construct a plateau inflation model in MSSM where the inflation occurs along a sneutrino-Higgs flat direction. A hidden sector Polonyi field is used for the breaking of supersymmetry after the end of the inflation. The proper choice of superpotential leads to strong stabilization of the Polonyi field, mZ2≫m3/22, which is required to solve the cosmological moduli problem. Also, the SUSY breaking results in a TeV scale gravitino mass and scalar masses and gives rise to bilinear and trilinear couplings of scalars which can be tested at the LHC. The sneutrino inflation field can be observed at the LHC as a TeV scale diphoton resonance like the one reported by CMS and ATLAS.
The impact of inflation uncertainty on interest rates
Cheong, Chongcheul; Kim, Gi-Hong; Podivinsky, Jan M.
2010-01-01
In this paper, the impact of inflation uncertainty on interest rates is investigated for the case of the U.S. three-month Treasury bill rate. We emphasize how consistentOLS estimation can be applied to an empirical equation which includes a proxy variable of inflation uncertainty measured by an ARCH-type model. A significant negative relationship between the two variables is provided. This evidence is contrasted with the view of the inflation risk premium in which inflation uncertainty positi...
Assisted inflation from geometric tachyon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Panigrahi, Kamal L.; Singh, Harvendra
2007-01-01
We study the effect of rolling of N D3-branes in the vicinity of NS5-branes. We find out that this system coupled with the four dimensional gravity gives the slow roll assisted inflation of the scalar field theory. Once again this expectation is exactly similar to that of N-tachyon assisted inflation on unstable D-branes
Inflation in the standard cosmological model
Uzan, Jean-Philippe
2015-12-01
The inflationary paradigm is now part of the standard cosmological model as a description of its primordial phase. While its original motivation was to solve the standard problems of the hot big bang model, it was soon understood that it offers a natural theory for the origin of the large-scale structure of the universe. Most models rely on a slow-rolling scalar field and enjoy very generic predictions. Besides, all the matter of the universe is produced by the decay of the inflaton field at the end of inflation during a phase of reheating. These predictions can be (and are) tested from their imprint of the large-scale structure and in particular the cosmic microwave background. Inflation stands as a window in physics where both general relativity and quantum field theory are at work and which can be observationally studied. It connects cosmology with high-energy physics. Today most models are constructed within extensions of the standard model, such as supersymmetry or string theory. Inflation also disrupts our vision of the universe, in particular with the ideas of chaotic inflation and eternal inflation that tend to promote the image of a very inhomogeneous universe with fractal structure on a large scale. This idea is also at the heart of further speculations, such as the multiverse. This introduction summarizes the connections between inflation and the hot big bang model and details the basics of its dynamics and predictions. xml:lang="fr"
The Effects of Unemployment on Economic Growth in Greece. An ARDL Bound Test Approach.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nikolaos Dritsakis
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between unemployment rate, economic growth and inflation rate in Greece, using annual data covering the period 1995-2015. The unit root tests results indicated that the variables have different integration order. Subsequently, the bounds testing (ARDL approach and ECM-ARDL model are applied in order to examine the long-run and the causal relationship between the variables. The empirical results of the study revealed, both in the short and long-run, that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between unemployment and economic growth with direction from unemployment to economic growth, as well as a unidirectional causality running from inflation to economic growth.
Chaotic inflation in models with flat directions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Graziani, F.; Olive, K.
1989-01-01
We consider the chaotic inflationary scenario in models with flat directions. We find that unless the scalars along the flat directions have vacuum expectation values p or 10 14 M p 15 M p depending on the expectation values of the chaotic inflator, Ψ, one or two or more periods of inflation occur but with a resulting energy density perturbation δρ/ρ ≅ 10 -16 , far too small to be of any consequence for galaxy formation. Even with p only limited initial values of ≅ (3-200) M p result in inflation with reasonable density perturbations. Thus chaotic inflation in models with flat directions require rather special initial conditions. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Lyth, David H.; Kohri, Kazunori; Matsuda, Tomohiro
2012-01-01
The primordial curvature perturbation ζ may be generated by some curvaton field σ, which is negligible during inflation and has more or less negligible interactions until it decays. In the current scenario, the curvaton starts to oscillate while its energy density ρσ is negligible. We explore the opposite scenario, in which ρσ drives a few e-folds of inflation before the oscillation begins. In this scenario for generating ζ it is exceptionally easy to solve the η problem; one just has to make the curvaton a string axion, with anomaly-mediated susy breaking which may soon be tested at the LHC. The observed spectral index n can be obtained with a potential V∝φ p for the first inflation; p = 1 or 2 is allowed by the current uncertainty in n but the improvement in accuracy promised by Planck may rule out p = 1. The predictions include (i) running n' ≅ 0.0026 (0.0013) for p = 1 (2) that will probably be observed, (ii) non-gaussianity parameter f NL ; ∼ −1 that may be observed, (iii) tensor fraction r is probably too small to ever observed
A Signature of Inflation from Dynamical Supersymmetry Breaking
Kinney, W H; Kinney, William H.; Riotto, Antonio
1998-01-01
In models of cosmological inflation motivated by dynamical supersymmetry breaking, the potential driving inflation may be characterized by inverse powers of a scalar field. These models produce observables similar to those typical of the hybrid inflation scenario: negligible production of tensor (gravitational wave) modes, and a blue scalar spectral index. In this short note, we show that, unlike standard hybrid inflation models, dynamical supersymmetric inflation (DSI) predicts a measurable deviation from a power-law spectrum of fluctuations, with a variation in the scalar spectral index $|dn / d(\\ln k)|$ may be as large as 0.05. DSI can be observationally distinguished from other hybrid models with cosmic microwave background measurements of the planned sensitivity of the ESA's Planck Surveyor.
Inflation from extra dimensions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barr, S.M.
1984-01-01
Recently there has been growing interest (1) in the possibility that the universe could have more than four dimensions. Aside from any light this may shed on problems in particle physics, if true it would undoubtedly have important implications for early cosmology. A rather speculative but very appealing possibility suggested by D. Sahdev and by E. Alvarez and B. Gavela is that the gravitational collapse of extra spatial dimensions could drive an inflation of ordinary space. This kind of inflationary cosmology would be quite different from the inflationary cosmologies now so intensively studied which are supposed to result from changes in vacuum energy during phase transitions in the early universe. In our work we examine the physics of these Kaluza-Klein inflationary cosmologies and come to three main conclusions. (1) It is desirable to have many extra dimensions, many being of order forty or fifty. (2) For models which give a realistically large inflation almost all of this inflation occurs in a period when quantum gravity is certainly important. This means that Einstein's equations cannot be used to calculate the details of this inflationary period. (3) Under plausible assumptions one may argue from the second law of thermodynamics that given appropriate initial conditions a large inflation will occur even when details of the inflationary phase cannot be calculated classically
A general framework of automorphic inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schimmrigk, Rolf
2016-01-01
Automorphic inflation is an application of the framework of automorphic scalar field theory, based on the theory of automorphic forms and representations. In this paper the general framework of automorphic and modular inflation is described in some detail, with emphasis on the resulting stratification of the space of scalar field theories in terms of the group theoretic data associated to the shift symmetry, as well as the automorphic data that specifies the potential. The class of theories based on Eisenstein series provides a natural generalization of the model of j-inflation considered previously.
A general framework of automorphic inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schimmrigk, Rolf [Department of Physics, Indiana University at South Bend,1700 Mishawaka Ave. South Bend, IN 46634 (United States)
2016-05-24
Automorphic inflation is an application of the framework of automorphic scalar field theory, based on the theory of automorphic forms and representations. In this paper the general framework of automorphic and modular inflation is described in some detail, with emphasis on the resulting stratification of the space of scalar field theories in terms of the group theoretic data associated to the shift symmetry, as well as the automorphic data that specifies the potential. The class of theories based on Eisenstein series provides a natural generalization of the model of j-inflation considered previously.
Inflation in a closed universe
Ratra, Bharat
2017-11-01
To derive a power spectrum for energy density inhomogeneities in a closed universe, we study a spatially-closed inflation-modified hot big bang model whose evolutionary history is divided into three epochs: an early slowly-rolling scalar field inflation epoch and the usual radiation and nonrelativistic matter epochs. (For our purposes it is not necessary to consider a final dark energy dominated epoch.) We derive general solutions of the relativistic linear perturbation equations in each epoch. The constants of integration in the inflation epoch solutions are determined from de Sitter invariant quantum-mechanical initial conditions in the Lorentzian section of the inflating closed de Sitter space derived from Hawking's prescription that the quantum state of the universe only include field configurations that are regular on the Euclidean (de Sitter) sphere section. The constants of integration in the radiation and matter epoch solutions are determined from joining conditions derived by requiring that the linear perturbation equations remain nonsingular at the transitions between epochs. The matter epoch power spectrum of gauge-invariant energy density inhomogeneities is not a power law, and depends on spatial wave number in the way expected for a generalization to the closed model of the standard flat-space scale-invariant power spectrum. The power spectrum we derive appears to differ from a number of other closed inflation model power spectra derived assuming different (presumably non de Sitter invariant) initial conditions.
76 FR 74625 - Civil Monetary Penalties Inflation Adjustment
2011-12-01
...-2011] RIN 1125-AA69 Civil Monetary Penalties Inflation Adjustment AGENCIES: U.S. Customs and Border... adjust for inflation certain civil monetary penalties assessed under the Immigration and Nationality Act... assessed under the INA. The Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 (Adjustment Act...
M-theory inflation from multi M5-brane dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Becker, Katrin; Becker, Melanie; Krause, Axel
2005-01-01
We derive inflation from M-theory on S 1 /Z 2 via the non-perturbative dynamics of N M5-branes. The open membrane instanton interactions between the M5-branes give rise to exponential potentials which are too steep for inflation individually but lead to inflation when combined together. The resulting type of inflation, known as assisted inflation, facilitates considerably the requirement of having all moduli, except the inflaton, stabilized at the beginning of inflation. During inflation the distances between the M5-branes, which correspond to the inflatons, grow until they reach the size of the S 1 /Z 2 orbifold. At this stage the M5-branes will reheat the universe by dissolving into the boundaries through small instanton transitions. Further flux and non-perturbative contributions become important at this late stage, bringing inflation to an end and stabilizing the moduli. We find that with moderate values for N, one obtains both a sufficient amount of e-foldings and the right size for the spectral index
Evading the Lyth bound in hybrid natural inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hebecker, A.; Kraus, S.C.; Westphal, Alexander
2013-05-01
Generically, the gravitational-wave or tensor-mode contribution to the primordial curvature spectrum of inflation is tiny if the field-range of the inflaton is much smaller than the Planck scale. We show that this pessimistic conclusion is naturally avoided in a rather broad class of small-field models. More specifically, we consider models where an axion-like shift symmetry keeps the inflaton potential flat (up to non-perturbative cosine-shaped modulations), but inflation nevertheless ends in a waterfall-regime, as is typical for hybrid inflation. In such hybrid natural inflation scenarios (examples are provided by Wilson line inflation and fluxbrane inflation), the slow-roll parameter ε can be sizable during an early period (relevant for the CMB spectrum). Subsequently, ε quickly becomes very small before the tachyonic instability eventually terminates the slow-roll regime. In this scenario, one naturally generates a considerable tensor-mode contribution in the curvature spectrum, collecting nevertheless the required amount of e-foldings during the final period of inflation. While non-observation of tensors by Planck is certainly not a problem, a discovery in the medium to long term future is realistic.
Evading the Lyth bound in hybrid natural inflation
Hebecker, A.; Kraus, S. C.; Westphal, A.
2013-12-01
Generically, the gravitational-wave or tensor-mode contribution to the primordial curvature spectrum of inflation is tiny if the field range of the inflaton is much smaller than the Planck scale. We show that this pessimistic conclusion is naturally avoided in a rather broad class of small-field models. More specifically, we consider models where an axionlike shift symmetry keeps the inflaton potential flat (up to nonperturbative cosine-shaped modulations), but inflation nevertheless ends in a waterfall regime, as is typical for hybrid inflation. In such hybrid natural inflation scenarios (examples are provided by Wilson line inflation and fluxbrane inflation), the slow-roll parameter ɛ can be sizable during an early period (relevant for the cosmic microwave background spectrum). Subsequently, ɛ quickly becomes very small before the tachyonic instability eventually terminates the slow-roll regime. In this scenario, one naturally generates a considerable tensor-mode contribution in the curvature spectrum, collecting nevertheless the required amount of e-foldings during the final period of inflation. While nonobservation of tensors by Planck is certainly not a problem, a discovery in the medium- to long-term future is realistic.
How likely are constituent quanta to initiate inflation?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lasha Berezhiani
2015-10-01
Full Text Available We propose an intuitive framework for studying the problem of initial conditions in slow-roll inflation. In particular, we consider a universe at high, but sub-Planckian energy density and analyze the circumstances under which it is plausible for it to become dominated by inflated patches at late times, without appealing to the idea of self-reproduction. Our approach is based on defining a prior probability distribution for the constituent quanta of the pre-inflationary universe. To test the idea that inflation can begin under very generic circumstances, we make specific – yet quite general and well grounded – assumptions on the prior distribution. As a result, we are led to the conclusion that the probability for a given region to ignite inflation at sub-Planckian densities is extremely small. Furthermore, if one chooses to use the enormous volume factor that inflation yields as an appropriate measure, we find that the regions of the universe which started inflating at densities below the self-reproductive threshold nevertheless occupy a negligible physical volume in the present universe as compared to those domains that have never inflated.
Intermediate inflation from a non-canonical scalar field
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rezazadeh, K.; Karami, K. [Department of Physics, University of Kurdistan, Pasdaran St., Sanandaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Karimi, P., E-mail: rezazadeh86@gmail.com, E-mail: KKarami@uok.ac.ir, E-mail: parvin.karimi67@yahoo.com [Center for Excellence in Astronomy and Astrophysics (CEAA-RIAAM), P.O. Box 55134-441, Maragha (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2015-09-01
We study the intermediate inflation in a non-canonical scalar field framework with a power-like Lagrangian. We show that in contrast with the standard canonical intermediate inflation, our non-canonical model is compatible with the observational results of Planck 2015. Also, we estimate the equilateral non-Gaussianity parameter which is in well agreement with the prediction of Planck 2015. Then, we obtain an approximation for the energy scale at the initial time of inflation and show that it can be of order of the Planck energy scale, i.e. M{sub P} ∼ 10{sup 18}GeV. We will see that after a short period of time, inflation enters in the slow-roll regime that its energy scale is of order M{sub P}/100 ∼ 10{sup 16}GeV and the horizon exit takes place in this energy scale. We also examine an idea in our non-canonical model to overcome the central drawback of intermediate inflation which is the fact that inflation never ends. We solve this problem without disturbing significantly the nature of the intermediate inflation until the time of horizon exit.
Evading the Lyth bound in hybrid natural inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hebecker, A.; Kraus, S.C. [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Westphal, Alexander [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group
2013-05-15
Generically, the gravitational-wave or tensor-mode contribution to the primordial curvature spectrum of inflation is tiny if the field-range of the inflaton is much smaller than the Planck scale. We show that this pessimistic conclusion is naturally avoided in a rather broad class of small-field models. More specifically, we consider models where an axion-like shift symmetry keeps the inflaton potential flat (up to non-perturbative cosine-shaped modulations), but inflation nevertheless ends in a waterfall-regime, as is typical for hybrid inflation. In such hybrid natural inflation scenarios (examples are provided by Wilson line inflation and fluxbrane inflation), the slow-roll parameter {epsilon} can be sizable during an early period (relevant for the CMB spectrum). Subsequently, {epsilon} quickly becomes very small before the tachyonic instability eventually terminates the slow-roll regime. In this scenario, one naturally generates a considerable tensor-mode contribution in the curvature spectrum, collecting nevertheless the required amount of e-foldings during the final period of inflation. While non-observation of tensors by Planck is certainly not a problem, a discovery in the medium to long term future is realistic.
Inflation protection from home-ownership : Long-run evidence
Brounen, Dirk; Eichholtz, P.; Staetmans, S.; Theebe, Marcel
2014-01-01
This article examines the inflation hedging capacity of the private home. We employ unique long-term data for inflation, house price dynamics and rents for Amsterdam dating back to 1814, allowing us to study total housing returns in different inflation regimes and for varying investment horizons.
46 CFR 185.518 - Inflatable survival craft placards.
2010-10-01
... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Inflatable survival craft placards. 185.518 Section 185... 100 GROSS TONS) OPERATIONS Preparations for Emergencies § 185.518 Inflatable survival craft placards. (a) Every vessel equipped with an inflatable survival craft must have approved placards or other...
Examining the impacts of oil price changes on economic indicators: A panel approach
Lim, Kah Boon; Sek, Siok Kun
2017-04-01
The impact of oil price on global economy is evident from many studies and research findings. In this study, we extend the research on examining the impact of oil price changes on economic indicators in terms of economic growth and inflation by comparing different groups of economies (high income versus low income countries and oil importing versus oil exporting countries). Our main objective is to reveal if such impact varies across country income level/ development and oil dependency. In addition, we also seek to compare the impacts of oil price relative to the other factors indicators (money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, government expenditure, inflation and gross domestic product) on economy. For the purpose of this study, the co-integration regression (DOLS and FMOLS) techniques are applied to the panel dataset of four groups of economies which contain 10 countries in each panel dataset. The analysis results show that oil price is not the main determinant although it can have a significant impact on inflation and economic growth across all groups of economies. The three main determinants of economic growth are exchange rate, aggregate demand and government expenditure while the determinants of inflation are aggregate supply and exchange rate. Furthermore, our result also concludes that oil price has a positive impact in oil exporting economies but it shows a negative impact in oil importing economies due to the oil dependency factor.
Lin, Chia-Min; Cheung, Kingman
Following Ref. 10, we explore the parameter space of the case when the supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking scale is lower, for example, in gauge mediated SUSY breaking model. During inflation, the form of the potential is V0 plus MSSM (or A-term) inflation. We show that the model works for a wide range of the potential V0 with the soft SUSY breaking mass m O(1) TeV. The implication to MSSM (or A-term) inflation is that the flat directions which is lifted by the non-renormalizable terms described by the superpotential W=λ p φ p-1/Mp-3 P with p = 4 and p = 5 are also suitable to be an inflaton field for λp = O(1) provided there is an additional false vacuum term V0 with appropriate magnitude. The flat directions correspond to p = 6 also works for 0 < ˜ V0/M_ P4 < ˜ 10-40.
Inflation in random Gaussian landscapes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Masoumi, Ali; Vilenkin, Alexander; Yamada, Masaki, E-mail: ali@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: vilenkin@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: Masaki.Yamada@tufts.edu [Institute of Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States)
2017-05-01
We develop analytic and numerical techniques for studying the statistics of slow-roll inflation in random Gaussian landscapes. As an illustration of these techniques, we analyze small-field inflation in a one-dimensional landscape. We calculate the probability distributions for the maximal number of e-folds and for the spectral index of density fluctuations n {sub s} and its running α {sub s} . These distributions have a universal form, insensitive to the correlation function of the Gaussian ensemble. We outline possible extensions of our methods to a large number of fields and to models of large-field inflation. These methods do not suffer from potential inconsistencies inherent in the Brownian motion technique, which has been used in most of the earlier treatments.
Individual differences in imagination inflation.
Heaps, C; Nash, M
1999-06-01
Garry, Manning, Loftus, and Sherman (1996) found that when adult subjects imagined childhood events, these events were subsequentlyjudged as more likely to have occurred than were not-imagined events. The authors termed this effect imagination inflation. We replicated the effect, using a novel set of Life Events Inventory events. Further, we tested whether the effect is related to four subject characteristics possibly associated with false memory creation. The extent to which subjects inflated judged likelihood following imagined events was associated with indices of hypnotic suggestibility and dissociativity, but not with vividness of imagery or interrogative suggestibility. Results suggest that imagination plays a role in subsequent likelihood judgments regarding childhood events, and that some individuals are more likely than others to experience imagination inflation.
Targeting nominal income growth or inflation?
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Henrik
2002-01-01
Within a simple New Keynesian model emphasizing forward-looking behavior of private agents, I evaluate optimal nominal income growth targeting versus optimal inflation targeting. When the economy is mainly subject to shocks that do not involve monetary policy trade-offs for society, inflation...
78 FR 56868 - Adjustment of Indemnification for Inflation
2013-09-16
... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Adjustment of Indemnification for Inflation AGENCY: Office of General Counsel...-Anderson Act. Subsection 170t. of the AEA requires an inflation adjustment of the indemnification amount at... inflation-adjusted amount based on the aggregate percentage change in the CPI during the 5-year period from...
46 CFR 122.518 - Inflatable survival craft placards.
2010-10-01
... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Inflatable survival craft placards. 122.518 Section 122... Preparations for Emergencies § 122.518 Inflatable survival craft placards. (a) Every vessel equipped with an inflatable survival craft must have approved placards or other cards containing instructions for launching...
Inflation and dark energy from three-forms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koivisto, Tomi S.; Nunes, Nelson J.
2009-01-01
Three-forms can give rise to viable cosmological scenarios of inflation and dark energy with potentially observable signatures distinct from standard single scalar field models. In this study, the background dynamics and linear perturbations of self-interacting three-form cosmology are investigated. The phase space of cosmological solutions possesses (super)-inflating attractors and saddle points, which can describe three-form driven inflation or dark energy. The quantum generation and the classical evolution of perturbations is considered. The scalar and tensor spectra from a three-form inflation and the impact from the presence of a three-form on matter perturbations are computed. Stability properties and equivalence of the model with alternative formulations are discussed.
Issues on generating primordial anisotropies at the end of inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan, E-mail: emami@mail.ipm.ir, E-mail: firouz@mail.ipm.ir [School of Physics, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM), P.O. Box 19395-5531, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2012-01-01
We revisit the idea of generating primordial anisotropies at the end of inflation in models of inflation with gauge fields. To be specific we consider the charged hybrid inflation model where the waterfall field is charged under a U(1) gauge field so the surface of end of inflation is controlled both by inflaton and the gauge fields. Using δN formalism properly we find that the anisotropies generated at the end of inflation from the gauge field fluctuations are exponentially suppressed on cosmological scales. This is because the gauge field evolves exponentially during inflation while in order to generate appreciable anisotropies at the end of inflation the spectator gauge field has to be frozen. We argue that this is a generic feature, that is, one can not generate observable anisotropies at the end of inflation within an FRW background.
Issues on generating primordial anisotropies at the end of inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan
2012-01-01
We revisit the idea of generating primordial anisotropies at the end of inflation in models of inflation with gauge fields. To be specific we consider the charged hybrid inflation model where the waterfall field is charged under a U(1) gauge field so the surface of end of inflation is controlled both by inflaton and the gauge fields. Using δN formalism properly we find that the anisotropies generated at the end of inflation from the gauge field fluctuations are exponentially suppressed on cosmological scales. This is because the gauge field evolves exponentially during inflation while in order to generate appreciable anisotropies at the end of inflation the spectator gauge field has to be frozen. We argue that this is a generic feature, that is, one can not generate observable anisotropies at the end of inflation within an FRW background
On the bursting of linear polymer melts in inflation processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Henrik Koblitz; Bach, Anders
2005-01-01
Molten LLDPE and HDPE plates (thickness 2 mm) have been inflated into a circular cylinder (inner radius 31 mm) under isothermal conditions. Low deformation rates allow the plates to be inflated considerably into the cylinder, and at high inflation rates an early burst is observed. Axis-symmetric ......Molten LLDPE and HDPE plates (thickness 2 mm) have been inflated into a circular cylinder (inner radius 31 mm) under isothermal conditions. Low deformation rates allow the plates to be inflated considerably into the cylinder, and at high inflation rates an early burst is observed. Axis...
Evaluation of Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence from Peru
Erick Lahura; Marco Vega
2011-01-01
Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identication of non-transitory inflation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called "core inflation measures". In this paper we construct alternative core inflation measures using wavelet functions and multiresolution analysis (MRA), and then evaluate their relevance for monetary policy. The construction of ...
Coordinating a two-echelon supply chain under inflation and time value of money
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B.C. Giri
2011-10-01
Full Text Available In the current global economic scenario, inflation plays a vital role in deciding optimal pricing of goods in any business entity. This paper develops a two-echelon (manufacturer-buyer supply chain model taking into account inflation and time value of money. The present value of the total cost of the supply chain is derived when the manufacturer produces a number of lots, the sum of which is equal to the buyer’s total demand over a time horizon and the manufacturer’s each production lot is delivered to the buyer in n shipments. The optimal solution of the model is obtained for a numerical example after some adjustments (required to exhibit feasibility in the derived solution. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out in order to examine the effects of changes in model-parameters on the optimal solution.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ellis, J.; Enqvist, K.; Nanopoulos, D.V.; Olive, K.A.; Srednicki, M.
1985-01-01
We present a simple model for primordial inflation in the context of SU(N, 1) no-scale n=1 supergravity. Because the model at zero temperature very closely resembles global supersymmetry, minima with negative cosmological constants do not exist, and it is easy to have a long inflationary epoch while keeping density perturbations of the right magnitude and satisfying other cosmological constraints. We pay specific attention to satisfying the thermal constraint for inflation, i.e. the existence of a high temperature minimum at the origin. (orig.)
Warm Inflation with Nonminimal Derivative Coupling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rashidi, N.; Nozari, Kourosh; Shoukrani, M.
2014-01-01
We study the effects of the nonminimal derivative coupling on the dissipative dynamics of the warm inflation where the scalar field is nonminimally coupled to gravity via its kinetic term. We present a detailed calculation of the cosmological perturbations in this setup. We use the recent observational data from the joint data set of WMAP9 + BAO + H 0 and also the Planck satellite data to constrain our model parameters for natural and chaotic inflation potentials. We study also the levels of non-Gaussianity in this warm inflation model and we confront the result with recent observational data from the Planck satellite
Economic Recovery vs. Defense Spending.
De Grasse, Robert; Murphy, Paul
1981-01-01
Evaluates President Reagan's proposed military buildup in light of the cuts such expenditures would necessitate in approximately 300 domestic programs. Suggests that the dramatic proposed increase in military spending risks higher inflation and slower economic growth. Concludes with a plea for rethinking of Reagan's dramatic shift in national…
Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes
Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit
2012-01-01
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for heterogeneity in both private information and updating. Our model vastly outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic mino...
Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes
Carlos Madeira; Basit Zafar
2012-01-01
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. We find that women, ethnic minorities, and less educated agents have a higher degree of heterogeneity in their private information, and are slower to update their expectations. During the 2000s, consumers believe inflation to be more persistent in the short term, but temporary fluctua...
New type of hill-top inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barvinsky, A.O.; Nesterov, D.V. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute, Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Kamenshchik, A.Yu., E-mail: barvin@td.lpi.ru, E-mail: Alexander.Kamenshchik@bo.infn.it, E-mail: nesterov@td.lpi.ru [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFN, via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy)
2016-01-01
We suggest a new type of hill-top inflation originating from the initial conditions in the form of the microcanonical density matrix for the cosmological model with a large number of quantum fields conformally coupled to gravity. Initial conditions for inflation are set up by cosmological instantons describing underbarrier oscillations in the vicinity of the inflaton potential maximum. These periodic oscillations of the inflaton field and cosmological scale factor are obtained within the approximation of two coupled oscillators subject to the slow roll regime in the Euclidean time. This regime is characterized by rapid oscillations of the scale factor on the background of a slowly varying inflaton, which guarantees smallness of slow roll parameters ε and η of the following inflation stage. A hill-like shape of the inflaton potential is shown to be generated by logarithmic loop corrections to the tree-level asymptotically shift-invariant potential in the non-minimal Higgs inflation model and R{sup 2}-gravity. The solution to the problem of hierarchy between the Planckian scale and the inflation scale is discussed within the concept of conformal higher spin fields, which also suggests the mechanism bringing the model below the gravitational cutoff and, thus, protecting it from large graviton loop corrections.
New type of hill-top inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barvinsky, A.O. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute,Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Department of Physics, Tomsk State University,Lenin Ave. 36, Tomsk 634050 (Russian Federation); Department of Physics and Astronomy, Pacific Institue for Theoretical Physics,University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Kamenshchik, A.Yu. [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFN,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); L.D. Landau Institute for Theoretical Physcis,Kosygin str. 2, 119334 Moscow (Russian Federation); Nesterov, D.V. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute,Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)
2016-01-20
We suggest a new type of hill-top inflation originating from the initial conditions in the form of the microcanonical density matrix for the cosmological model with a large number of quantum fields conformally coupled to gravity. Initial conditions for inflation are set up by cosmological instantons describing underbarrier oscillations in the vicinity of the inflaton potential maximum. These periodic oscillations of the inflaton field and cosmological scale factor are obtained within the approximation of two coupled oscillators subject to the slow roll regime in the Euclidean time. This regime is characterized by rapid oscillations of the scale factor on the background of a slowly varying inflaton, which guarantees smallness of slow roll parameters ϵ and η of the following inflation stage. A hill-like shape of the inflaton potential is shown to be generated by logarithmic loop corrections to the tree-level asymptotically shift-invariant potential in the non-minimal Higgs inflation model and R{sup 2}-gravity. The solution to the problem of hierarchy between the Planckian scale and the inflation scale is discussed within the concept of conformal higher spin fields, which also suggests the mechanism bringing the model below the gravitational cutoff and, thus, protecting it from large graviton loop corrections.
Inflation persistence: is it similar in the new EU member states and the euro area members?
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Franta, Michal; Saxa, Branislav; Šmídková, K.
-, 25/2008 (2008), s. 1-35 Grant - others:Česká národní banka(CZ) B4/2003 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation persistence * new EU member states * new hybrid Phillips curve Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/9070
Evolution of the curvature perturbations during warm inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsuda, Tomohiro
2009-01-01
This paper considers warm inflation as an interesting application of multi-field inflation. Delta-N formalism is used for the calculation of the evolution of the curvature perturbations during warm inflation. Although the perturbations considered in this paper are decaying after the horizon exit, the corrections to the curvature perturbations sourced by these perturbations can remain and dominate the curvature perturbations at large scales. In addition to the typical evolution of the curvature perturbations, inhomogeneous diffusion rate is considered for warm inflation, which may lead to significant non-Gaussianity of the spectrum
Creating perturbations from a decaying field during inflation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mazumdar, A.; Wang, L.
2013-01-01
Typically, the fluctuations generated from a decaying field during inflation do not contribute to the large scale structures. In this paper, we provide an example where it is possible for a field which slowly rolls and then decays during inflation to create all the matter perturbations with a sli......Typically, the fluctuations generated from a decaying field during inflation do not contribute to the large scale structures. In this paper, we provide an example where it is possible for a field which slowly rolls and then decays during inflation to create all the matter perturbations...
The anatomy of Japan's postwar economic development.
Tsao, Hsiung Yuan
1997-01-01
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis examines the anatomy of postwar Japanese economic development. It is illustrated by the reform and reconstruction era (1945-52) and those factors which caused the Japanese economy to grow during the 1953-73 period. Furthermore, on the basis of Japanese economic successes, the role of the Japanese in world affairs again became important. However, due to the world experiencing economic inflation and an oil shock after 1974, t...
Quarterly inflation rate target and forecasts in Romania
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mihaela Simionescu
2016-12-01
Full Text Available In this study, we proposed some inflation rate predictions based on econometric models that performed better than the targets of the National Bank of Romania. Few econometric models (multiple regressions model and a vector-autoregression were used to predict the quarterly inflation rate in Romania during 2000:Q1-2016:Q4. The GDP growth has a negative impact on inflation rate in Romania, an increase in logarithm of GDP with one percentage point determining a decrease in inflation logarithm with less than 0.1 units according to both proposed models. However, an increase in inflation rate in the previous period determined an increase in this variable in the current period. The inverse of unemployment rate is positively correlated with the index of prices. The causal relationship between inflation rate and unemployment rate is reciprocal. In the first period the index of prices evolution is explained only by changes in this variable. The inflation rate volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, the influence decreasing insignificantly in time, not descending under 88%. More than 99% of the variation in unemployment rate is explained by the own volatility for all lags. The annual forecasts based on these models performed better than the targets on the horizon 2015-2016.
77 FR 65100 - Adjustment of Civil Monetary Penalties for Inflation
2012-10-25
... Penalties for Inflation AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The... civil monetary penalties, to adjust for inflation. This rule sets forth the maximum, inflation-adjusted... Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990, as amended by the Debt Collection Improvement...
10 CFR 765.12 - Inflation index adjustment procedures.
2010-01-01
... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation index adjustment procedures. 765.12 Section 765... THORIUM PROCESSING SITES Reimbursement Criteria § 765.12 Inflation index adjustment procedures. (a) The... § 765.2(i) of this rule) shall be adjusted for inflation as provided by this section. (b) To make...
Enqvist, K
2012-01-01
The very basics of cosmological inflation are discussed. We derive the equations of motion for the inflaton field, introduce the slow-roll parameters, and present the computation of the inflationary perturbations and their connection to the temperature fluctuations of the cosmic microwave background.
Felder, G; Linde, Andrei D; Tkachev, Igor I; Felder, Gary; Kofman, Lev; Linde, Andrei; Tkachev, Igor
2000-01-01
Preheating after inflation may lead to nonthermal phase transitions with symmetry restoration. These phase transitions may occur even if the total energy density of fluctuations produced during reheating is relatively small as compared with the vacuum energy in the state with restored symmetry. As a result, in some inflationary models one encounters a secondary, nonthermal stage of inflation due to symmetry restoration after preheating. We review the theory of nonthermal phase transitions and make a prediction about the expansion factor during the secondary inflationary stage. We then present the results of lattice simulations which verify these predictions, and discuss possible implications of our results for the theory of formation of topological defects during nonthermal phase transitions.
Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Inflation expectations are related to expected future changes .... had to choose from a menu of options with a further response in one instance, while .... 1The marginal effect or partial derivatives depend on the value of x, and the marginal.
Zero inflated negative binomial-Sushila distribution and its application
Yamrubboon, Darika; Thongteeraparp, Ampai; Bodhisuwan, Winai; Jampachaisri, Katechan
2017-11-01
A new zero inflated distribution is proposed in this work, namely the zero inflated negative binomial-Sushila distribution. The new distribution which is a mixture of the Bernoulli and negative binomial-Sushila distributions is an alternative distribution for the excessive zero counts and over-dispersion. Some characteristics of the proposed distribution are derived including probability mass function, mean and variance. The parameter estimation of the zero inflated negative binomial-Sushila distribution is also implemented by maximum likelihood method. In application, the proposed distribution can provide a better fit than traditional distributions: zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial distributions.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Navoda Dhananjika Edirisinghe
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Maintaining price stability is one of the primary objectives of monetary policy in any economy as price instability, particularly high inflation, will cause to reduce economic growth by reducing investments and productivity growth. Therefore, investigating the existence of Fisher Effect and Price Puzzle is a necessary requirement in order to understand the nature, extent and dynamics of effective monetary policies in Sri Lanka. The main objective of this study is to investigate the existence of short run and long run Fisher Effect and Price Puzzle in Sri Lanka. The results from co-integration technique, Error Correction Model (ECM which employed in the study suggest that in Sri Lanka, nominal interest rates fully adjust for expected inflation in long-run. But in short-run, a significant positive association between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is there with absence of full Fisher Effect. Moreover the analysis has been extended and identified the existence of the Price Puzzle both in a short run and long run. Therefore, changes in monetary instruments do not appear to be completely effective in meeting the goal of low inflation. In order to solve this problem what we can recommend is, Sri Lanka should move towards inflation-targeting monetary policy system.
Inflation risk and international asset returns
G.A. Moerman (Gerard); M.A. van Dijk (Mathijs)
2010-01-01
textabstractWe show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the
No-scale D-term inflation with stabilized moduli
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buchmueller, Wilfried; Domcke, Valerie; Wieck, Clemens
2013-09-15
We study the consistency of hybrid inflation and moduli stabilization, using the Kallosh- Linde model as an example for the latter. We find that F-term hybrid inflation is not viable since inflationary trajectories are destabilized by tachyonic modes. On the other hand, D-term hybrid inflation is naturally compatible with moduli stabilization due to the absence of a large superpotential term during the inflationary phase. Our model turns out to be equivalent to superconformal D-term inflation and it therefore successfully accounts for the CMB data in the large-field regime. Supersymmetry breaking can be incorporated via an O'Raifeartaigh model. For GUT-scale inflation one obtains a stringent bound on the gravitino mass. A rough estimate yields m{sub 3/2}>or similar 10{sup 5} GeV, contrary to naive expectation.
No-scale D-term inflation with stabilized moduli
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buchmueller, Wilfried; Domcke, Valerie; Wieck, Clemens
2013-09-01
We study the consistency of hybrid inflation and moduli stabilization, using the Kallosh- Linde model as an example for the latter. We find that F-term hybrid inflation is not viable since inflationary trajectories are destabilized by tachyonic modes. On the other hand, D-term hybrid inflation is naturally compatible with moduli stabilization due to the absence of a large superpotential term during the inflationary phase. Our model turns out to be equivalent to superconformal D-term inflation and it therefore successfully accounts for the CMB data in the large-field regime. Supersymmetry breaking can be incorporated via an O'Raifeartaigh model. For GUT-scale inflation one obtains a stringent bound on the gravitino mass. A rough estimate yields m 3/2 >or similar 10 5 GeV, contrary to naive expectation.
Inflation and the theory of cosmological perturbations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Riotto, A.
2003-01-01
These lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to inflation and the theory of cosmological perturbations generated during inflation which are thought to be the origin of structure in the universe. (author)
Solving stochastic inflation for arbitrary potentials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martin, Jerome; Musso, Marcello
2006-01-01
A perturbative method for solving the Langevin equation of inflationary cosmology in the presence of backreaction is presented. In the Gaussian approximation, the method permits an explicit calculation of the probability distribution of the inflaton field for an arbitrary potential, with or without the volume effects taken into account. The perturbative method is then applied to various concrete models, namely, large field, small field, hybrid, and running mass inflation. New results on the stochastic behavior of the inflaton field in those models are obtained. In particular, it is confirmed that the stochastic effects can be important in new inflation while it is demonstrated they are negligible in (vacuum dominated) hybrid inflation. The case of stochastic running mass inflation is discussed in some details and it is argued that quantum effects blur the distinction between the four classical versions of this model. It is also shown that the self-reproducing regime is likely to be important in this case
Simple types of anisotropic inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barrow, John D.; Hervik, Sigbjoern
2010-01-01
We display some simple cosmological solutions of gravity theories with quadratic Ricci curvature terms added to the Einstein-Hilbert Lagrangian which exhibit anisotropic inflation. The Hubble expansion rates are constant and unequal in three orthogonal directions. We describe the evolution of the simplest of these homogeneous and anisotropic cosmological models from its natural initial state and evaluate the deviations they will create from statistical isotropy in the fluctuations produced during a period of anisotropic inflation. The anisotropic inflation is not a late-time attractor in these models but the rate of approach to a final isotropic de Sitter state is slow and is conducive to the creation of observable anisotropic statistical effects in the microwave background. The statistical anisotropy would not be scale invariant and the level of statistical anisotropy will grow with scale.
A note on calm excited states of inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ashoorioon, Amjad; Shiu, Gary
2011-01-01
We identify a two-parameter family of excited states within slow-roll inflation for which either the corrections to the two-point function or the characteristic signatures of excited states in the three-point function — i.e. the enhancement for the flattened momenta configurations– are absent. These excited states may nonetheless violate the adiabaticity condition maximally. We dub these initial states of inflation calm excited states. We show that these two sets do not intersect, i.e., those that leave the power-spectrum invariant can be distinguished from their bispectra, and vice versa. The same set of calm excited states that leave the two-point function invariant for slow-roll inflation, do the same task for DBI inflation. However, at the level of three-point function, the calm excited states whose flattened configuration signature is absent for slow-roll inflation, will lead to an enhancement for DBI inflation generally, although the signature is smaller than what suggested by earlier analysis. This example also illustrates that imposing the Wronskian condition is important for obtaining a correct estimate of the non-Gaussian signatures
A state-dependent model for inflation forecasting
Andrea Stella; James H. Stock
2012-01-01
We develop a parsimonious bivariate model of inflation and unemployment that allows for persistent variation in trend inflation and the NAIRU. The model, which consists of five unobserved components (including the trends) with stochastic volatility, implies a time-varying VAR for changes in the rates of inflation and unemployment. The implied backwards-looking Phillips curve has a time-varying slope that is steeper in the 1970s than in the 1990s. Pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiments i...
Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Fifth annual report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1981-01-01
In this and previous efforts, ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study has focused on the future markets for fusion energy and the economics of fusion in those markets. These tasks were performed: (1) fusion market growth, (2) inflation vs. capital investment decisions, and (3) economics of cogeneration
Inflation targeting and interest rate policy
Verhagen, W.H.
2001-01-01
The thesis contains a collection of papers on issues in inflation targeting and its implications for the way interest rates are set. In this respect, the first part deals with two largely positive issues: the effect of inflation forecast targeting on the term structure of interest rates and the
Inflation with a constant rate of roll
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Motohashi, Hayato; Starobinsky, Alexei A.; Yokoyama, Jun'ichi
2015-01-01
We consider an inflationary scenario where the rate of inflaton roll defined by ·· φ/H φ-dot remains constant. The rate of roll is small for slow-roll inflation, while a generic rate of roll leads to the interesting case of 'constant-roll' inflation. We find a general exact solution for the inflaton potential required for such inflaton behaviour. In this model, due to non-slow evolution of background, the would-be decaying mode of linear scalar (curvature) perturbations may not be neglected. It can even grow for some values of the model parameter, while the other mode always remains constant. However, this always occurs for unstable solutions which are not attractors for the given potential. The most interesting particular cases of constant-roll inflation remaining viable with the most recent observational data are quadratic hilltop inflation (with cutoff) and natural inflation (with an additional negative cosmological constant). In these cases even-order slow-roll parameters approach non-negligible constants while the odd ones are asymptotically vanishing in the quasi-de Sitter regime
Origin of density fluctuations in extended inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kolb, E.W.; Salopek, D.S.; Turner, M.S.
1990-05-01
The density fluctuations (both curvature and isocurvature) that arise due to quantum fluctuations in a simple model of extended inflation based upon the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory are calculated. Curvature fluctuations arise due to quantum fluctuations in the Brans-Dicke field, in general have a nonscale-invariant spectrum, and can have an amplitude that is cosmologically acceptable and interesting without having to tune any coupling constant to a very small value. The density perturbations that arise due to the inflation field are subdominant. If there are other massless fields in the theory, e.g., an axion or an ilion, then isocurvature fluctuations arise in these fields too. Production of gravitational waves and the massless particles associated with excitations of the Brans-Dicke field are also discussed. Several attempts at more realistic models of extended inflation are also analyzed. The importance of the Einstein conformal frame in calculating curvature fluctuations is emphasized. When viewed in this frame, extended inflation closely resembles slow-rollover inflation with an exponential potential and the usual formula for the amplitude of curvature perturbations applies
Curvaton as dark matter with secondary inflation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gong, Jinn-Ouk; Kitajima, Naoya [Asia Pacific Center for Theoretical Physics, Pohang 37673 (Korea, Republic of); Terada, Takahiro, E-mail: jinn-ouk.gong@apctp.org, E-mail: naoya.kitajima@apctp.org, E-mail: terada@kias.re.kr [Korea Institute for Advanced Study, Seoul 02455 (Korea, Republic of)
2017-03-01
We consider a novel cosmological scenario in which a curvaton is long-lived and plays the role of cold dark matter (CDM) in the presence of a short, secondary inflation. Non-trivial evolution of the large scale cosmological perturbation in the curvaton scenario can affect the duration of the short term inflation, resulting in the inhomogeneous end of inflation. Non-linear parameters of the curvature perturbation are predicted to be f {sub NL} ≈ 5/4 and g {sub NL} ≈ 0. The curvaton abundance can be well diluted by the short-term inflation and accordingly, it does not have to decay into the Standard Model particles. Then the curvaton can account for the present CDM with the isocurvature perturbation being sufficiently suppressed because both the adiabatic and CDM isocurvature perturbations have the same origin. As an explicit example, we consider the thermal inflation scenario and a string axion as a candidate for this curvaton-dark matter. We further discuss possibilities to identify the curvaton-dark matter with the QCD axion.
Wirelessly Controllable Inflated Electroactive Polymer (EAP) Reflectors
Bao, Xiaoqi; Bar-Cohen, Yoseph; Chang, Zensheu; Sherrit, Stewart; Badescu, Mircea
2005-01-01
Inflatable membrane reflectors are attractive for deployable, large aperture, lightweight optical and microwave systems in micro-gravity space environment. However, any fabrication flaw or temperature variation may results in significant aberration of the surface. Even for a perfectly fabricated inflatable membrane mirror with uniform thickness, theory shows it will form a Hencky curve surface but a desired parabolic or spherical surface. Precision control of the surfaceshape of extremely flexible membrane structures is a critical challenge for the success of this technology. Wirelessly controllable inflated reflectors made of electroactive polymers (EAP) are proposed in this paper. A finite element model was configured to predict the behavior of the inflatable EAP membranes under pre-strains, pressures and distributed electric charges on the surface. To explore the controllability of the inflatable EAP reflectors, an iteration algorism was developed to find the required electric actuation for correcting the aberration of the Hencky curve to the desired parabolic curve. The correction capability of the reflectors with available EAP materials was explored numerically and is presented in this paper.
What Is Wrong with Grade Inflation (If Anything)?
Finefter-Rosenbluh, Ilana; Levinson, Meira
2015-01-01
Grade inflation is a global phenomenon that has garnered widespread condemnation among educators, researchers, and the public. Yet, few have deliberated over the ethics of grading, let alone the ethics of grade inflation. The purpose of this paper is to map out and examine the ethics of grade inflation. By way of beginning, we clarify why grade…
Air Tight: Building Inflatables/Inflatable Construction: Planning and Details
Kennedy, Kriss J.
2016-01-01
A design-build seminar consisting of students from Physics, Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Robotic, Material Science, Art, and Architecture who will work together on a deployable "closed-loop" inflatable greenhouse for Mars in theory, and an Earth analogue physical mockup on campus.
Inflation persistence in new EU member states: is it different than in the euro area members?
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Franta, Michal; Saxa, Branislav; Šmídková, Kateřina
-, č. 10 (2007), s. 1-37 ISSN 1803-2397 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation persistence * new hybrid Phillips curve * new EU member states Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cnb.cz/m2export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2007_10.pdf
GLOBALIZATION AND ECONOMIC CRISIS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silvia Marginean
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The paper analyzes the relation between degree of economic globalization and the impact of economic crisis for developed and emerging European countries. We measure economic globalization through indexes based on share of external trade in GDP and FDI intensity (% of FDI inflows and outflows divided by GDP. The complexity of current economic and financial crisis could be evaluated through GDP growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment, public debt, budget deficit, balance of payments, exchange rate, etc. For the purpose of this paper we used GDP growth rate as a measure of economic crisis impact on national economies.
Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier
2007-07-01
We have recently introduced the “thermal optimal path” (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we generalize the TOP method by introducing a more general definition of distance which takes into account possible regime shifts between positive and negative correlations. This generalization to track possible changes of correlation signs is able to identify possible transitions from one convention (or consensus) to another. Numerical simulations on synthetic time series verify that the new TOP method performs as expected even in the presence of substantial noise. We then apply it to investigate changes of convention in the dependence structure between the historical volatilities of the USA inflation rate and economic growth rate. Several measures show that the new TOP method significantly outperforms standard cross-correlation methods.
A picture for the coupling of unemployment and inflation
Safdari, H.; Hosseiny, A.; Vasheghani Farahani, S.; Jafari, G. R.
2016-02-01
The aim of this article is to illustrate the scaling features of two well heard characters in the media; unemployment and inflation. We carry out a scaling analysis on the coupling between unemployment and inflation. This work is based on the wavelet analysis as well as the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Through our analysis we state that while unemployment is time scale invariant, inflation is bi-scale. We show that inflation possess a five year time scale where it experiences different behaviours before and after this scale period. This behaviour of inflation provides basis for the coupling to inherit the stated time interval. Although inflation is bi-scale, it is unemployment that shows a strong multifractality feature. Owing to the cross wavelet analysis we provide a picture that illustrates the dynamics of coupling between unemployment and inflation regarding intensity, direction, and scale. The fact of the matter is that the coupling between inflation and unemployment is not equal in one way compared to the opposite. Regarding the scaling; coupling exhibits different features in various scales. In a sense that although in one scale its correlation behaves in a positive/negative manner, at the same time it can be negative/positive for another scale.
Dark energy from gravitoelectromagnetic inflation?
Membiela, F. A.; Bellini, M.
2008-02-01
Gravitoectromagnetic Inflation (GI) was introduced to describe in an unified manner, electromagnetic, gravitatory and inflaton fields from a 5D vacuum state. On the other hand, the primordial origin and evolution of dark energy is today unknown. In this letter we show using GI that the zero modes of some redefined vector fields $B_i=A_i/a$ produced during inflation, could be the source of dark energy in the universe.
Inflation, Reionization, and All That: The Primordial Inflation Explorer
Kogut, Alan J.
2012-01-01
The Primordial Inflation Explorer is an Explorer-class mission to measure the gravity-wave signature of primordial inflation through its distinctive imprint on the linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background. PIXIE uses an innovative optical design to achieve background-limited sensitivity in 400 spectral channels spanning 2.5 decades in frequency from 30 GHz to 6 THz (1 cm to 50 micron wavelength). The principal science goal is the detection and characterization of linear polarization from an inflationary epoch in the early universe, with tensor-to-scalar ratio r < 10(exp -3) at 5 standard deviations. The rich PIXIE data set will also constrain physical processes ranging from Big Bang cosmology to the nature of the first stars to physical conditions within the interstellar medium of the Galaxy. I describe the PIXIE instrument and mission architecture needed to detect the inflationary signature using only 4 semiconductor bolometers.
Combining high-scale inflation with low-energy SUSY
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Antusch, Stefan [Basel Univ. (Switzerland). Dept. of Physics; Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany). Werner-Heisenberg-Institut; Dutta, Koushik [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Halter, Sebastian [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany). Werner-Heisenberg-Institut
2011-12-15
We propose a general scenario for moduli stabilization where low-energy supersymmetry can be accommodated with a high scale of inflation. The key ingredient is that the stabilization of the modulus field during and after inflation is not associated with a single, common scale, but relies on two different mechanisms. We illustrate this general scenario in a simple example, where during inflation the modulus is stabilized with a large mass by a Kaehler potential coupling to the field which provides the inflationary vacuum energy via its F-term. After inflation, the modulus is stabilized, for instance, by a KKLT superpotential. (orig.)
Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano
2010-01-01
In this paper we propose novel techniques for the empirical analysis of adaptive learning and sticky information in inflation expectations. These methodologies are applied to the distribution of households’ inflation expectations collected by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center....... To account for the evolution of the cross-section of inflation forecasts over time and measure the degree of heterogeneity in private agents’ forecasts, we explore time series of percentiles from the empirical distribution. Our results show that heterogeneity is pervasive in the process of inflation...... hand side of the median formed in accordance with adaptive learning and sticky information....
Evading Lyth bound in models of quintessential inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hossain, Md. Wali; Myrzakulov, R.; Sami, M.; Saridakis, Emmanuel N.
2014-01-01
Quintessential inflation refers to an attempt to unify inflation and late-time cosmic acceleration using a single scalar field. In this letter we consider two different classes of quintessential inflation, one of which is based upon a Lagrangian with non-canonical kinetic term k 2 (ϕ)∂ μ ϕ∂ μ ϕ and a steep exponential potential while the second class uses the concept of steep brane world inflation. We show that in both cases the Lyth bound can be evaded, despite the large tensor-to-scalar ratio of perturbations. The post-inflationary dynamics is consistent with nucleosynthesis constraint in these cases
MHz gravitational waves from short-term anisotropic inflation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro
2016-01-01
We reveal the universality of short-term anisotropic inflation. As a demonstration, we study inflation with an exponential type gauge kinetic function which is ubiquitous in models obtained by dimensional reduction from higher dimensional fundamental theory. It turns out that an anisotropic inflation universally takes place in the later stage of conventional inflation. Remarkably, we find that primordial gravitational waves with a peak amplitude around 10 −26 ∼10 −27 are copiously produced in high-frequency bands 10 MHz∼100 MHz. If we could detect such gravitational waves in future, we would be able to probe higher dimensional fundamental theory.
Replenishment policy for an inventory model under inflation
Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema; Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar
2017-07-01
The purpose of replenishment is to keep the flow of inventory in the system. To determine an optimal replenishment policy is a great challenge in developing an inventory model. Inflation is defined as the rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising over a time period. The cost parameters are affected by the rate of inflation. High rate of inflation affects the organizations financial conditions. Based on the above backdrop the present paper proposes the retailers replenishment policy for deteriorating items with different cycle lengths under inflation. The shortages are partially backlogged. At last numerical examples validate the results.
Portfolio Management with Stochastic Interest Rates and Inflation Ambiguity
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Munk, Claus; Rubtsov, Alexey Vladimirovich
We solve a stock-bond-cash portfolio choice problem for a risk- and ambiguity-averse investor in a setting where the inflation rate and interest rates are stochastic. The expected inflation rate is unobservable, but the investor may learn about it from realized inflation and observed stock and bond...... prices. The investor is aware that his model for the observed inflation is potentially misspecified, and he seeks an investment strategy that maximizes his expected utility from real terminal wealth and is also robust to inflation model misspecification. We solve the corresponding robust Hamilton......-Jacobi-Bellman equation in closed form and derive and illustrate a number of interesting properties of the solution. For example, ambiguity aversion affects the optimal portfolio through the correlation of price level with the stock index, a bond, and the expected inflation rate. Furthermore, unlike other settings...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ANIELA BĂLĂCESCU
2011-06-01
Full Text Available In the analysis of economic stability an important part is owned by consumer prices. The present study is devoted to an analysis of the evolution of CPI and inflation rate in the Rumanian economy. The analysis uses annual and monthly series for the period January 2000 - December 2010.
Spontaneous non-thermal leptogenesis in high-scale inflation models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Endo, M.; Takahashi, F.; Yanagida, T.T.; Tokyo Univ.
2006-11-01
We argue that a non-thermal leptogenesis occurs spontaneously, without direct couplings of the inflation with right-handed neutrinos, in a wide class of high-scale inflation models such as the chaotic and hybrid inflation. It is only a finite vacuum expectation value of the inflaton, of more precisely, a linear term in the Kaehler potential, that is a prerequisite for the spontaneous non-thermal leptogenesis. To exemplify how it works, we show that a chaotic inflation model in supergravity naturally produces a right amount of baryon asymmetry via the spontaneous non-thermal leptogenesis. We also discuss the gravitino production from the inflation. (orig.)
Inflation in the Universe, circa 1986
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Turner, M.S.; Chicago Univ., IL
1988-01-01
The status of the 'Inflationary Paradigm', Circa 1986 is reviewed. At present essentially all inflationary models involve a very weakly-coupled scalar field which is displaced from the minimum of its potential. Regions of the Universe where the scalar field is initially displaced from its minimum undergo inflation as the scalar field relaxes, resulting in a Universe today which resembles ours in regions much larger than our present Hubble volume (≅ 10 28 cm), but which on very largescales (>> 10 28 cm) may be highly irregular. Some other unresolved issues facing inflation, including the confrontation between the predictions of inflation and observational data, are also reviewed. (author) 113 refs.; 4 figs
First observational tests of eternal inflation.
Feeney, Stephen M; Johnson, Matthew C; Mortlock, Daniel J; Peiris, Hiranya V
2011-08-12
The eternal inflation scenario predicts that our observable Universe resides inside a single bubble embedded in a vast inflating multiverse. We present the first observational tests of eternal inflation, performing a search for cosmological signatures of collisions with other bubble universes in cosmic microwave background data from the WMAP satellite. We conclude that the WMAP 7-year data do not warrant augmenting the cold dark matter model with a cosmological constant with bubble collisions, constraining the average number of detectable bubble collisions on the full sky N(s) < 1.6 at 68% C.L. Data from the Planck satellite can be used to more definitively test the bubble-collision hypothesis.
On inflating magnetic fields, and the backreactions thereof
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Urban, Federico R., E-mail: urban@phas.ubc.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, B.C. V6T 1Z1 (Canada)
2011-12-01
We investigate in more depth the issue of backreaction in models that attempt at generating cosmological magnetic fields at inflation. By choosing different, physically motivated, parametrisations, we are able to isolate the heart of the problem, namely the existence, alongside the wanted magnetic field, of its electric counterpart, which turns out quite generally to be stronger and redder. We were also able to identify a few more interwoven weak spots (the typically very high scale of inflation, the width of the spectrum of modes processed by inflation, the blindness of the amplification mechanism to the energy scale processed), in a way independent on the specifications of the coupling between inflation and electromagnetism. Despite having stripped down the problem to the core, the obstacles encountered appear insurmountable, thereby posing a challenge to inflation as the incubator of cosmological magnetism.
Natural inflation and moduli stabilization in heterotic orbifolds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ruehle, Fabian; Wieck, Clemens
2015-03-01
We study moduli stabilization in combination with inflation in heterotic orbifold compactifications in the light of a large Hubble scale and the favored tensor-to-scalar ratio r∼0.05. To account for a trans-Planckian field range we implement aligned natural inflation. Although there is only one universal axion in heterotic constructions, further axions from the geometric moduli can be used for alignment and inflation. We argue that such an alignment is rather generic on orbifolds, since all non-perturbative terms are determined by modular weights of the involved fields and the Dedekind η function. We present two setups inspired by the mini-landscape models of the Z 6-II orbifold which realize aligned inflation and stabilization of the relevant moduli. One has a supersymmetric vacuum after inflation, while the other includes a gaugino condensate which breaks supersymmetry at a high scale.
End of multifield inflation and the perturbation spectrum
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gong, Jinn-Ouk
2007-01-01
We investigate the dynamics of inflation models driven by multiple, decoupled scalar fields and calculate the Hubble parameter and the amplitude of the lightest field at the end of inflation which may be responsible for interesting, or possibly dangerous cosmological consequences after inflation. The results are very simple and similar to those of the single field inflation, mainly depending on the underlying spectrum of the masses. The mass distribution is heavily constrained by the power spectrum of density perturbations P and the spectral index n s . The overall mass scale gives the amplitude of P, and n s is affected by the number of fields and the spacing between masses in the distribution. The dropout effect of the massive fields makes the perturbation spectrum typically redder than the single field inflation spectrum. We illustrate this using two different mass distributions
Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management in Korea
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Won-Am Park
2008-06-01
Full Text Available This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.
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Yazdan Naghdi
2013-09-01
Full Text Available This study has attempted to examine and compare the effects of 2007 financial crisis on inflation in OPEC countries and selected countries of G8, based on a panel data regression model during 2000-2010. It should be noted that the selected countries of G8 group are 5 industrial countries member of this group, including: America, Italy, Britain, France and Japan, that crisis has been seen faster in them than other countries. Growth economic variables (real sector of the economy, oil price and stock price index (i.e. financial market have been considered as affected shared variables of the financial crisis in both countries group. According to the obtained results, the only affected variable by the crisis in OPEC countries, is oil price which has positive and significant effect on inflation in the above mentioned countries so that one percent increase in oil price lead to about 0.08 percent increase on inflation, on the other hand, according to survey results there is no relationship between output and inflation in OPEC countries, so it reflects weak manufacturing structure sector (real sector of the economy in these countries
ON ROLE OF INFLATION TARGETING IN RUSSIAN ECONOMY PROGRESS OF LAST YEARS
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Егор Николаевич Поляков
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Author of the article gives an explanation of Russian economy slowing down from 4 quarter 2011 till 3 quarter 2013. According to author reasoning the main problem of Russian economy throughout this period of time was growth of real interest rates. The growth of real interest rate is determined by monetary policy, conducted by Central Bank. The main priority of CB is fight against inflation, which is waged by liquidity shrinkage. The bottom-line is fall of inflation and interest rates growth (including lending rate. Real interest rates are growing drastically. In certain branches of economy (for instance manufacturing real interest rates growth amounted to 10 and more percentage points.CB calls this policy inflation targeting. Besides fight against inflation floating ruble is important feature of this policy. The author made a conclusion that floating ruble when hydrocarbons prices are at historical maximum level is the worst recipe for Russian economy which is strongly dependent from hydrocarbons export revenue. The author compares Russian monetary and budget policy with monetary and budget policy of other countries with distorted export structure, for example Saudi Arabia and Norway. The author came to conclusion that Russian monetary and budget policy combination is unique among countries dependent from hydrocarbons export revenues. Result of this monetary and budget policy is vulnerability toward external shocks, tradable sectors noncompetitiveness, close to zero growth rate of economy and deterioration all branches of Russian economy. Zero net of payment balance while high oil price is economic nonsense. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2014-2-7
Investigating the Impact of Dollarization on Economic Growth: A Case of Zimbabwe
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Ruby NGAMANYA MUNHUPEDZI
2017-03-01
Full Text Available This study examined the effects of dollarization on business in Zimbabwe focusing on economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP, employment and ease of doing business during the period 2009-2015. Zimbabwe experienced a very difficult economic phase characterised by hyperinflation, negative economic growth, unavailability of basic commodities and negative economic growth rates during the period 1998-2008. In 2009 the country adopted a multi-currency system whereby the Zimbabwean dollar was in circulation alongside various other currencies, with the United States Dollar and the South African Rand being the dominant ones. There has been general speculation that Zimbabwe’s economic problems are due to dollarization. Through analysing data from interviews and secondary sources, the research established that dollarization brought about stability in the economy, arrested inflation, and caused a marginal increase in GDP. However, the response of the employment rate was independent of the dollarization and may be attributed to other factors such as Economic Structural Adjustment Programme (ESAP in 1992, the global economic crisis in 2008 and the absence of reliable data.
Rapid roll inflation with conformal coupling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kofman, Lev; Mukohyama, Shinji
2008-01-01
Usual inflation is realized with a slow rolling scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. In contrast, we consider dynamics of a scalar with a flat effective potential, conformally coupled to gravity. Surprisingly, it contains an attractor inflationary solution with the rapidly rolling inflaton field. We discuss models with the conformal inflaton with a flat potential (including hybrid inflation). There is no generation of cosmological fluctuations from the conformally coupled inflaton. We consider realizations of modulated (inhomogeneous reheating) or curvaton cosmological fluctuations in these models. We also implement these unusual features for the popular string-theoretic warped inflationary scenario, based on the interacting D3-D3 branes. The original warped brane inflation suffers a large inflaton mass due to conformal coupling to 4-dimensional gravity. Instead of considering this as a problem and trying to cure it with extra engineering, we show that warped inflation with the conformally coupled, rapidly rolling inflaton is yet possible with N=37 efoldings, which requires low-energy scales 1-100 TeV of inflation. Coincidentally, the same warping numerology can be responsible for the hierarchy. It is shown that the scalars associated with angular isometries of the warped geometry of compact manifold (e.g. S 3 of Klebanov-Strassler (KS) geometry) have solutions identical to conformally coupled modes and also cannot be responsible for cosmological fluctuations. We discuss other possibilities
Rapid roll inflation with conformal coupling
Kofman, Lev; Mukohyama, Shinji
2008-02-01
Usual inflation is realized with a slow rolling scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. In contrast, we consider dynamics of a scalar with a flat effective potential, conformally coupled to gravity. Surprisingly, it contains an attractor inflationary solution with the rapidly rolling inflaton field. We discuss models with the conformal inflaton with a flat potential (including hybrid inflation). There is no generation of cosmological fluctuations from the conformally coupled inflaton. We consider realizations of modulated (inhomogeneous reheating) or curvaton cosmological fluctuations in these models. We also implement these unusual features for the popular string-theoretic warped inflationary scenario, based on the interacting D3-D¯3 branes. The original warped brane inflation suffers a large inflaton mass due to conformal coupling to 4-dimensional gravity. Instead of considering this as a problem and trying to cure it with extra engineering, we show that warped inflation with the conformally coupled, rapidly rolling inflaton is yet possible with N=37 efoldings, which requires low-energy scales 1 100 TeV of inflation. Coincidentally, the same warping numerology can be responsible for the hierarchy. It is shown that the scalars associated with angular isometries of the warped geometry of compact manifold (e.g. S3 of Klebanov-Strassler (KS) geometry) have solutions identical to conformally coupled modes and also cannot be responsible for cosmological fluctuations. We discuss other possibilities.
Herrera, Ramón
2017-05-01
A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bachlechner, Thomas C. [Department of Physics, Columbia University,New York, NY 10027 (United States)
2016-12-30
We argue that moduli stabilization generically restricts the evolution following transitions between weakly coupled de Sitter vacua and can induce a strong selection bias towards inflationary cosmologies. The energy density of domain walls between vacua typically destabilizes Kähler moduli and triggers a runaway towards large volume. This decompactification phase can collapse the new de Sitter region unless a minimum amount of inflation occurs after the transition. A stable vacuum transition is guaranteed only if the inflationary expansion generates overlapping past light cones for all observable modes originating from the reheating surface, which leads to an approximately flat and isotropic universe. High scale inflation is vastly favored. Our results point towards a framework for studying parameter fine-tuning and inflationary initial conditions in flux compactifications.
Chameleon field dynamics during inflation
Saba, Nasim; Farhoudi, Mehrdad
By studying the chameleon model during inflation, we investigate whether it can be a successful inflationary model, wherein we employ the common typical potential usually used in the literature. Thus, in the context of the slow-roll approximations, we obtain the e-folding number for the model to verify the ability of resolving the problems of standard big bang cosmology. Meanwhile, we apply the constraints on the form of the chosen potential and also on the equation of state parameter coupled to the scalar field. However, the results of the present analysis show that there is not much chance of having the chameleonic inflation. Hence, we suggest that if through some mechanism the chameleon model can be reduced to the standard inflationary model, then it may cover the whole era of the universe from the inflation up to the late time.
Partially massless fields during inflation
Baumann, Daniel; Goon, Garrett; Lee, Hayden; Pimentel, Guilherme L.
2018-04-01
The representation theory of de Sitter space allows for a category of partially massless particles which have no flat space analog, but could have existed during inflation. We study the couplings of these exotic particles to inflationary perturbations and determine the resulting signatures in cosmological correlators. When inflationary perturbations interact through the exchange of these fields, their correlation functions inherit scalings that cannot be mimicked by extra massive fields. We discuss in detail the squeezed limit of the tensor-scalar-scalar bispectrum, and show that certain partially massless fields can violate the tensor consistency relation of single-field inflation. We also consider the collapsed limit of the scalar trispectrum, and find that the exchange of partially massless fields enhances its magnitude, while giving no contribution to the scalar bispectrum. These characteristic signatures provide clean detection channels for partially massless fields during inflation.
INFLATION TARGETING IN EASTERN EUROPE
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Laurian Lungu
2006-05-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the inflation targeting approach in three transition economies, namely Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic with the use of Taylor rules as benchmarks. The three economies considered have been successful at achieving disinflation, but deviations of inflation from its target have been persistent in all cases. Except for the Czech Republic, deviations from the Taylor rule are large and persistent, with Hungary displaying the largest fluctuations. Polish interest rates have consistently exceeded those suggested by the Taylor rule and given the prevalence of high unemployment, these undershootings do not augur well for the stability of monetary policy. Finally, the behaviour of Czech interest rates can be remarkably captured by the simple Taylor rule proposed in this paper, suggesting that the Czech National Bank has been the most successful at stabilising inflation and output around their target levels.
Inflation and cosmic strings: Two mechanisms for producing structure in the universe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brandenberger, R.
1987-01-01
Contents: Introduction; Big Bang Cosmology and its Problems; The Old and the New Inflationary Universe; The Onset of Inflation; Chaotic Inflation; The Origin of Small Scale Structure in Inflationary Universe Models: Generation of Perturbations; Gauge Invariant Analysis of Classical Perturbations; Evolution of Perturbations in Inflationary Universe Models; Cosmological Constrains on Inflationary Universe Models; Beyond the Simplest Models of Inflation; Generalized Inflation (Kaluza-Klein Inflation, Inflation in Induced Gravity Models and in Superstring Theories); Quantum Cosmology and Inflation; Inflation and Cosmic Strings: A Comparison between Two Mechanisms for Forming Structures in the Early Universe
Stability of extra dimensions in the inflating early universe
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wieck, Clemens
2015-08-01
Cosmic inflation is an attractive paradigm to explain the initial conditions of the universe. It can be conveniently described by the dynamics of a single scalar field within N=1 supergravity. Due to the high energy scale during the inflationary epoch, which is favored by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background radiation, and the flatness of the inflaton potential it is necessary to consider inflation in the context of a UV-complete theory like string theory. To this end, we study the effects of moduli stabilization on inflation models in supergravity, focussing on Kahler moduli in type IIB string theory which govern the size of extra dimensions. For generic models of F-term inflation we calculate back-reaction terms by integrating out the moduli at a high energy scale. When the moduli are stabilized supersymmetrically, all effects decouple in the limit of very heavy moduli. The corrections, however, may be sizeable for realistic moduli masses above the Hubble scale and affect the predicted observables of many models like chaotic inflation and hybrid inflation. If, on the other hand, moduli stabilization entails spontaneous supersymmetry breaking, there are non-decoupling effects like soft mass terms for the inflaton. By the example of chaotic inflation we show that a careful choice of parameters and initial conditions is necessary to reconcile large-field inflation with popular moduli stabilization schemes like KKLT stabilization or the Large Volume Scenario. Furthermore, we study the interplay of moduli stabilization and D-term inflation. If inflation is driven by a constant Fayet-Iliopoulos term, the back-reaction decouples but the gravitino mass in the vacuum is surprisingly constrained. For a field-dependent Fayet-Iliopoulos term associated with an anomalous U(1) symmetry we discuss a number of obstructions to realizing inflation. Moreover, we propose a way to evade them using a new mechanism for supersymmetric moduli stabilization with world
Inflation Targeting as the Monetary Policy Framework: Bangladesh Perspective
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Mohammed SAIFUL ISLAM
2011-06-01
Full Text Available Inflation targeting strategy has become a widely accepted monetary policy framework in many countries all over the world. Our study finds that the central bank of Bangladesh is neither inflation targeting nor does follow any other rule-guided monetary policy, rather the policy is formulated with substantial discretion under the guidelines of donor agencies. This paper provides the evidence that monetary sector of Bangladesh economy has gained considerable degree of maturity and fulfils a number of prerequisites to adopt inflation targeting strategy. Using data over 1980-2010 we estimate an error correction model in order to examine if interest rate policy could fight the inflation. This is evident that deviation in inflation from target can be corrected via the changes in interest rate. Empirical findings jointly with few descriptive statistics provide strong evidence to recommend inflation targeting as the monetary policy strategy for Bangladesh.
Military Expenditure and Socio-Economic Development.
Ball, Nicole
1983-01-01
The relationship between military expenditure and the stimulation of aggregate demand, inflation, investment, trade balance, foreign exchange, the improvement of taxation, and employment creation and industrialization in the Third World is analyzed. To some extent military expenditure does promote economic growth, but it does not automatically…
EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCE ON INFLATION: THE CASE OF ROMANIA
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Ihnatov Iulian
2011-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper we try to assess the main external determinants of inflation dynamics in Romania. The literature in the field of measuring inflation dynamics is wealthy and various. There are many developing country - level studies that examine inflation dynamics: Blavy (2004 - Guinea, Duma (2008 - Sri Lanka, Gottschalk et al (2008 - Sierra Leone, Moriyama (2008 - Sudan, Mwase (2006 - Tanzania, Williams and Adedeji (2004 - Dominican Republic, Hossain (2005 - Indonesia, Almounsor (2010 - Yemen. The issue of Romanian inflation dynamics is present in many and various studies, like Hammermann (2007, Pelinescu and Dospinescu (2006, Budina et al (2006 etc. There are no other recent studies that analyze the external determinants on Romanian inflation dynamics. In our paper we estimate an OLS single equation model, using a methodology derived from Almounsor (2010. The empirical analysis uses monthly data from August 2005 to January 2011. The start point of the data series is the moment of a major change in the National Bank of Romania (NBR monetary policy: adoption of the inflation targeting regime. The independent variables used in our research are: harmonized consumer price index of EU-25 countries, EUR/RON exchange rate, crude oil price index (for analyzing the external shocks effect and M2 monetary aggregate (intermediate money supply as a control variable. The outcomes suggest that inflation in Romania is driven mainly by international price shocks - harmonized consumer price index of EU-25 countries. The EUR/RON exchange rate depreciation has a small influence on domestic inflation. In the short run, the effect of the international oil price is insignificant. Money supply, used here as a control variable, is shown to have a very small effect on inflation in Romania when using OLS regressions. The results show that 66% of the domestic inflation variance is explained by the independent variables in our model.
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Mihaela Simionescu
2014-12-01
Full Text Available There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models. Therefore, experts’ forecasts are utilized as prior information, for Romania these predictions being provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting (Dobrescu macromodel, National Commission for Prognosis and European Commission. The empirical results for Romanian inflation show the superiority of a fixed effects model compared to other types of econometric models like VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model, dynamic model, log-linear model. The Bayesian combinations that used experts’ predictions as priors, when the shrinkage parameter tends to infinite, improved the accuracy of all forecasts based on individual models, outperforming also zero and equal weights predictions and naïve forecasts.
Fear of Floating and Inflation Targeting in Turkey
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Vasif Abiyev
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to test empirical validity of Fear of Floating hypothesis for Turkey after the adoption of Inflation Targeting. We start applying methodologies developed by Calvo and Reinhart (2002 and Ball and Reyes (2004, 2008 to check the probabilities of changes in exchange rate and monetary policy instruments before and after inflation targeting regime. We then use a VAR model to estimate exchange rate pass-through and response of monetary policy instruments to exchange rate shocks before and after inflation targeting regime. VAR model helps to understand the impacts of switch in monetary policy regime on exchange rate pass-through and foreign exchange market interventions. The paper concludes that after the adoption of inflation targeting regime, the exchange rate pass-through still matters for the attainment of inflation targets and the monetary policy do not exhibit a fear of floating practices.
Loop quantum gravity effects on inflation and the CMB
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsujikawa, Shinji; Singh, Parampreet; Maartens, Roy
2004-01-01
In loop quantum cosmology, the universe avoids a big bang singularity and undergoes an early and short super-inflation phase. During super-inflation, non-perturbative quantum corrections to the dynamics drive an inflaton field up its potential hill, thus setting the initial conditions for standard inflation. We show that this effect can raise the inflaton high enough to achieve sufficient e-foldings in the standard inflation era. We analyse the cosmological perturbations generated when slow-roll is violated after super-inflation and show that loop quantum effects can in principle leave an indirect signature on the largest scales in the CMB, with some loss of power and running of the spectral index
Understanding Inflation and Revising National Price Data
International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)
Pete
In parallel, official inflation statistics attribute inflation to other expenditure items. Whereas ..... Finally, instead of using a fixed-based index, other methods employ non-fixed bases for ...... Furniture and Household Maintenance. 7.9. 3.9. 8.18.
76 FR 47177 - Publication of Housing Price Inflation Adjustment
2011-08-04
... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Publication of Housing Price Inflation Adjustment AGENCY: Office of the Under Secretary (Personnel and Readiness), Department of Defense. ACTION: Notice... reflect inflation and to publish the new amount in the Federal Register. We have applied the inflation...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V.A. Belkin
2009-06-01
Full Text Available The process of synchronization of greater and small waves of real gross national product of the USA and a total regional product of the Chelyabinsk area is shown on the materials of economic statistics. The conclusion about defining influence of dynamics of real gross national product of the USA on the basic macroeconomic parameters of the Chelyabinsk area owing to high dependence of its economy on export of metal products is done from here. It is evidently shown, that the modern world economic crisis quite keeps within the theory of greater cycles of an economic conjuncture of N.D. Kondratyev. To greater cycles of a total regional product of the Chelyabinsk area there correspond return greater cycles of inflation and unemployment.
Higgs inflation and the cosmological constant
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jegerlehner, Fred [Humboldt-Universitaet, Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik; Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany)
2014-02-15
The Higgs not only induces the masses of all SM particles, the Higgs, given its special mass value, is the natural candidate for the inflaton and in fact is ruling the evolution of the early universe, by providing the necessary dark energy which remains the dominant energy density. SM running couplings not only allow us to extrapolate SM physics up to the Planck scale, but equally important they are triggering the Higgs mechanism. This is possible by the fact that the bare mass term in the Higgs potential changes sign at about μ{sub 0}≅1.40 x 10{sup 16} GeV and in the symmetric phase is enhanced by quadratic terms in the Planck mass. Such a huge Higgs mass term is able to play a key role in triggering inflation in the early universe. In this article we extend our previous investigation by working out the details of a Higgs inflation scenario. We show how different terms contributing to the Higgs Lagrangian are affecting inflation. Given the SM and its extrapolation to scales μ>μ{sub 0} we find a calculable cosmological constant V(0) which is weakly scale dependent and actually remains large during inflation. This is different to the Higgs fluctuation field dependent ΔV(φ), which decays exponentially during inflation, and actually would not provide a sufficient amount of inflation. The fluctuation field has a different effective mass which shifts the bare Higgs transition point to a lower value μ'{sub 0} ≅7.7 x 10{sup 14} GeV. The vacuum energy V(0) being proportional to M{sub Pl}{sup 4} has a coefficient which vanishes near the Higgs transition point, such that the bare and the renormalized cosmological constant match at this point. The role of the Higgs in reheating and baryogenesis is emphasized.