Bioenergy. The Impact of Indirect Land Use Change. Summary and Conclusions from the IEA Bioenergy ExCo63 Workshop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, A.; Tustin, J.

2009-09-01

This publication provides the summary and conclusions from the title workshop, held in conjunction with he meeting of the Executive Committee of IEA Bioenergy in Rotterdam, Netherlands, on 12 May 2009. The purpose of the workshop was to inform the Executive Committee on the rapidly evolving international debate on bioenergy and land use - particularly the thorny issue of indirect land use change. The aim was to stimulate discussion between the Executive Committee and invited experts and thereby enhance the new policy-oriented work within IEA Bioenergy.

Make biomass chains part of the solution. Recommendation on Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC); Maak biomassaketens deel van de oplossing. Advies over indirecte veranderingen van landgebruik (ILUC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-10-15

This advice builds on previous advice of the Corbey Committee of November 2009: 'Make agriculture part of the solution'. The advise proposes three measures to prevent indirect land use change (ILUC) in the European framework: (1) Calculate an ILUC value for greenhouse gases by assuming that the use of 1 hectare of agricultural land for biofuels principally leads to the use of 1 hectare additional agricultural land; (2) vary the application of the ILUC value proportionally under the following circumstances: (a) efficiency improvement of agricultural production; (b) if marginal or degraded lands are used; (c) if co-products are used, for example for the food chain; (d) if waste flows are used; and (3) protect biodiversity. The measures are elaborated in this advice. [Dutch] Dit advies bouwt voort op een eerder advies van de Commissie Corbey van november 2009: 'Maak landbouw deel van de oplossing'. Het advies stelde drie maatregelen voor waarmee in Europees verband 'indirect land use change' (ILUC) tegengegaan kan worden: (1) Bereken een ILUC-waarde voor broeikasgasemissies door ervan uit te gaan dat het gebruik van 1 hectare landbouwgrond voor biobrandstoffen in principe leidt tot ingebruikneming van 1 hectare extra landbouwgrond; (2) Varieer de toepassing van de ILUC-waarde proportioneel onder de volgende omstandigheden: (a) efficientieverbetering van de landbouwproductie; (b) indien marginale of gedegradeerde gronden in gebruik worden genomen; (c) indien co-producten worden ingezet voor bijvoorbeeld de voedselketen; (d) Indien reststromen ingezet worden; en (3) Bescherm de biodiversiteit. In dit advies worden deze maatregelen verder uitgewerkt.

The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels

Science.gov (United States)

Khanna, Madhu; Wang, Weiwei; Hudiburg, Tara W.; Delucia, Evan H.

2017-06-01

Efforts to reduce the indirect land use change (ILUC) -related carbon emissions caused by biofuels has led to inclusion of an ILUC factor as a part of the carbon intensity of biofuels in a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. While previous research has provided varying estimates of this ILUC factor, there has been no research examining the economic effects and additional carbon savings from including this factor in implementing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Here we show that inclusion of an ILUC factor in a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard led to additional abatement of cumulative emissions over 2007-2027 by 1.3 to 2.6% (0.6-1.1 billion mega-grams carbon-dioxide-equivalent (Mg CO2e-1) compared to those without an ILUC factor, depending on the ILUC factors utilized. The welfare cost to the US of this additional abatement ranged from $61 to $187 Mg CO2e-1 and was substantially greater than the social cost of carbon of $50 Mg CO2e-1.

Carbon footprint of biofuels: towards a consideration of indirect land use changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vergez, Antonin; Blanquet, Pascal; Guibert, Olivier de; Bonnet, Xavier

2013-03-01

The purpose of this article is to detail the carbon footprint of biofuels and to show the mechanisms and impacts of indirect land use changes (ILUC), which are linked to the production of first generation biofuels. Two studies, finalized in France in 2012, confirm the importance of ILUC linked to biofuel development in France and the European Union, and converge with the European Commission research. Despite of some methodological difficulties to quantify this phenomenon, it appears necessary to take ILUC into account when deciding on public policies that encourage production of biofuels. To combat ILUC the European Commission has considered four strategies that we analyze and compare within this article. In October 2012 the European Commission proposed to take into account estimated ILUC values when evaluating biofuels, in order to limit the share of first generation biofuels in the European objectives and to encourage the development of second generation biofuels, which do not interfere with world food production. This legislative proposal is subject to debate during the first half of 2013 under the Irish Presidency of the European Council. (authors)

Biofuels, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions: some unexplored variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyungtae; Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E

2009-02-01

Greenhouse gas release from land use change (the so-called "carbon debt") has been identified as a potentially significant contributor to the environmental profile of biofuels. The time required for biofuels to overcome this carbon debt due to land use change and begin providing cumulative greenhouse gas benefits is referred to as the "payback period" and has been estimated to be 100-1000 years depending on the specific ecosystem involved in the land use change event. Two mechanisms for land use change exist: "direct" land use change, in which the land use change occurs as part of a specific supply chain for a specific biofuel production facility, and "indirect" land use change, in which market forces act to produce land use change in land that is not part of a specific biofuel supply chain, including, for example, hypothetical land use change on another continent. Existing land use change studies did not consider many of the potentially important variables that might affect the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels. We examine here several variables that have not yet been addressed in land use change studies. Our analysis shows that cropping management is a key factor in estimating greenhouse gas emissions associated with land use change. Sustainable cropping management practices (no-till and no-till plus cover crops) reduce the payback period to 3 years for the grassland conversion case and to 14 years for the forest conversion case. It is significant that no-till and cover crop practices also yield higher soil organic carbon (SOC) levels in corn fields derived from former grasslands or forests than the SOC levels that result if these grasslands or forests are allowed to continue undisturbed. The United States currently does not hold any of its domestic industries responsible for its greenhouse gas emissions. Thus the greenhouse gas standards established for renewable fuels such as corn ethanol in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 set a

Bend case study : indirect land use and growth impacts : interim report

Science.gov (United States)

2000-01-01

To improve environmental analysis of indirect land use impacts of highway capacity improvements, this study analyzed the land use and growth patterns of 20 Oregon communities over 20 years. Using a Geographic Information System and aerial photos, gro...

Biofuels and Land use in Sweden - An overview of land-use change effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeglund, J. [IVL Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Stockholm (Sweden); Ahlgren, S. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Grahn, M. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden); Sundberg, C. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); and others

2013-09-01

Supported by policies, biofuel production has been continuously increasing worldwide during recent years owing to a scientific consensus that human-induced global warming is a reality and the need to reduce import dependency of fossil fuels. However, concerns have been raised that bio-fuels, often advocated as the future substitute for greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive fossil fuels, may cause negative effects on the climate and the environment. When assessing GHG emissions from biofuels, the production phase of the biofuel crop is essential since this is the phase in which most of the GHG emissions occur during the life cycle of the fuel (not accounting for biogenic CO{sub 2} from the tailpipe). Much research has been focusing on the GHG performance of biofuels, but there are also a range of other possible environmental effects of biofuel production, often linked to land use and land management. Changes in land use can result from a wide range of anthropogenic activities including agriculture and forestry management, livestock and biofuel production. Direct effects of land-use change (LUC) range from changes of carbon stock in standing biomass to biodiversity impacts and nutrient leakage. Beside the direct effects, indirect effects can influence other uses of land through market forces across countries and continents. These indirect effects are complex to measure and observe. This report provides an overview of a much debated issue: the connection between LUC and bio-fuel production and associated potential impacts on a wide range of aspects (i.e., soil chemistry, biodiversity, socio economics, climate change, and policy). The main purpose of the report is to give a broad overview of the literature on LUC impacts from biofuel production, not only taking into account the link between LUC and GHG, which has been addressed in many other studies. The report first presents a review of the literature in the different scientific areas related to LUC and biofuel production

The GHG balance of biofuels taking into account land use change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lange, Mareike

2011-01-01

The contribution of biofuels to the saving of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has recently been questioned because of emissions resulting from land use change (LUC) for bioenergy feedstock production. We investigate how the inclusion of the carbon effect of LUC into the carbon accounting framework, as scheduled by the European Commission, impacts on land use choices for an expanding biofuel feedstock production. We first illustrate the change in the carbon balances of various biofuels, using methodology and data from the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. It becomes apparent that the conversion of natural land, apart from grassy savannahs, impedes meeting the EU's 35% minimum emissions reduction target for biofuels. We show that the current accounting method mainly promotes biofuel feedstock production on former cropland, thus increasing the competition between food and fuel production on the currently available cropland area. We further discuss whether it is profitable to use degraded land for commercial bioenergy production as requested by the European Commission to avoid undesirable LUC and conclude that the current regulation provides little incentive to use such land. The exclusive consideration of LUC for bioenergy production minimizes direct LUC at the expense of increasing indirect LUC. - Research highlights: → We analyzed the EC's current sustainability regulations for biofuels with respect to land use change (LUC). → The current regulatory system taking LUCs into account minimizes direct LUC at the cost of increasing indirect LUC. → We propose subjecting all agricultural activities to a carbon accounting system. → In the short run, the indirect LUC risk can be reduced by promoting high energy productive crops and biofuel feedstock production on degraded land.

Adapting observationally based metrics of biogeophysical feedbacks from land cover/land use change to climate modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A

2016-01-01

To assess the biogeophysical impacts of land cover/land use change (LCLUC) on surface temperature, two observation-based metrics and their applicability in climate modeling were explored in this study. Both metrics were developed based on the surface energy balance, and provided insight into the contribution of different aspects of land surface change (such as albedo, surface roughness, net radiation and surface heat fluxes) to changing climate. A revision of the first metric, the intrinsic biophysical mechanism, can be used to distinguish the direct and indirect effects of LCLUC on surface temperature. The other, a decomposed temperature metric, gives a straightforward depiction of separate contributions of all components of the surface energy balance. These two metrics well capture observed and model simulated surface temperature changes in response to LCLUC. Results from paired FLUXNET sites and land surface model sensitivity experiments indicate that surface roughness effects usually dominate the direct biogeophysical feedback of LCLUC, while other effects play a secondary role. However, coupled climate model experiments show that these direct effects can be attenuated by large scale atmospheric changes (indirect feedbacks). When applied to real-time transient LCLUC experiments, the metrics also demonstrate usefulness for assessing the performance of climate models and quantifying land–atmosphere interactions in response to LCLUC. (letter)

Biofuels that cause land-use change may have much larger non-GHG air quality emissions than fossil fuels.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsao, C-C; Campbell, J E; Mena-Carrasco, M; Spak, S N; Carmichael, G R; Chen, Y

2012-10-02

Although biofuels present an opportunity for renewable energy production, significant land-use change resulting from biofuels may contribute to negative environmental, economic, and social impacts. Here we examined non-GHG air pollution impacts from both indirect and direct land-use change caused by the anticipated expansion of Brazilian biofuels production. We synthesized information on fuel loading, combustion completeness, and emission factors, and developed a spatially explicit approach with uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to estimate air pollution emissions. The land-use change emissions, ranging from 6.7 to 26.4 Tg PM(2.5), were dominated by deforestation burning practices associated with indirect land-use change. We also found Brazilian sugar cane ethanol and soybean biodiesel including direct and indirect land-use change effects have much larger life-cycle emissions than conventional fossil fuels for six regulated air pollutants. The emissions magnitude and uncertainty decrease with longer life-cycle integration periods. Results are conditional to the single LUC scenario employed here. After LUC uncertainty, the largest source of uncertainty in LUC emissions stems from the combustion completeness during deforestation. While current biofuels cropland burning policies in Brazil seek to reduce life-cycle emissions, these policies do not address the large emissions caused by indirect land-use change.

Bioenergy production from perennial energy crops: A consequential LCA of 12 bioenergy scenarios including land use changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik

2012-01-01

and IV) co-firing in large scale coal-fired CHP plants. Soil carbon changes, direct and indirect land use changes as well as uncertainty analysis (sensitivity, MonteCarlo) were included in the LCA. Results showed that global warming was the bottleneck impact, where only two scenarios, namely willow...... and Miscanthus co-firing, allowed for an improvement as compared with the reference (-82 and -45 t CO2-eq. ha-1, respectively). The indirect land use changes impact was quantified as 310 ± 170 t CO2-eq. ha-1, representing a paramount average of 41% of the induced greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainty...... analysis confirmed the results robustness and highlighted the indirect land use changes uncertainty as the only uncertainty that can significantly change the outcome of the LCA results. © 2012 American Chemical Society....

Land Competition and Land-Use Change:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vongvisouk, Thoumthone

Land competition and land-use changes are taking place in many developing countries as the demand for land increases. These changes are leading to changes in the livelihood conditions of rural people. The Government of Laos (GoL), on the one hand, aims to increase forest protection. On the other...... hand, the government is also working to increase national economic growth by promoting private-sector investment in both agriculture and forest resources – two sectors that compete for the same areas intended for protection. This thesis explores how these contradictory drivers of land-use changes...... software. Quantitative data was compiled in a Microsoft Access database and analyzed in Excel. Land-use and livelihood changes are taking place rapidly in the study sites. Overall, land-use change underwent transformation away from subsistence shifting cultivation to cash crops, intensive agriculture...

Carbon balance impacts of land use changes related to the life cycle of Malaysian palm oil-derived biodiesel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Sune Balle; Olsen, Stig Irving; Ujang, Zaini

2014-01-01

to oil palm, in a life cycle perspective.LCA methodology is applied to existing land use change data. The assessment includes the issue of temporary carbon storage in the plantations. Through quantification of emissions from state forest reserve and rubber plantation conversions, the average Malaysian...... palm oil-related land use changes are calculated.The results show that there are high emissions associated with the conversion of Malaysian state forest reserve to oil palm, whereas the conversion of rubber leaves a less significant carbon debt when indirect land use change is not included. Looking...... at the average Malaysian land use changes associated with oil palm shows that land use change emissions are responsible for approximately half of the total conventional biodiesel production emissions. The sensitivity analysis shows that the results could be significantly influenced by data variations in indirect...

Environmental implications of the use of agro-industrial residues for biorefineries: application of a deterministic model for indirect land-use changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, Lorie; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

2016-01-01

pathway, in a short-term context. Focusing on transport fuels, bioethanol was generally preferable to biomethane considering conventional biogas upgrading technologies. Based on the results, agro-industrial residues cannot be considered burden-free simply because they are a residual biomass and careful...... of these residues, a consequential life-cycle assessment (LCA) of 32 energy-focused biorefinery scenarios was performed based on eight selected agro-industrial residues and four conversion pathways (two involving bioethanol and two biogas). To specifically address indirect land-use changes (iLUC) induced.......1 t CO2-eq.ha-1demanded y-1 corresponding to 1.2-1.5 t CO2 t-1 dry biomass used for energy. Only bioenergy from straw and wild grass was shown to perform better than the alternative use, as no competition with the feed sector was involved. Biogas for heat-and-power production was the best performing...

Assessing driving forces of land use and land cover change by a mixed-method approach in north-eastern Ghana, West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Kleemann, Janina; Baysal, Gülendam; Bulley, Henry N N; Fürst, Christine

2017-07-01

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is the result of complex human-environmental interactions. The high interdependencies in social-ecological systems make it difficult to identify the main drivers. However, knowledge of key drivers of LULCC, including indirect (underlying) drivers which cannot be easily determined by spatial or economic analyses, is essential for land use planning and especially important in developing countries. We used a mixed-method approach in order to detect drivers of LULCC in the Upper East Region of northern Ghana by different qualitative and quantitative methods which were compared in a confidence level analysis. Viewpoints from experts help to answer why the land use is changing, since many triggering effects, especially non-spatial and indirect drivers of LULCC, are not measurable by other methodological approaches. Geo-statistical or economic analyses add to validate the relevance of the expert-based results. First, we conducted in-depth interviews and developed a list of 34 direct and indirect drivers of LULCC. Subsequently, a group of experts was asked in a questionnaire to select the most important drivers by using a Likert scale. This information was complemented by remote sensing analysis. Finally, the driver analysis was compared to information from literature. Based on these analyses there is a very high confidence that population growth, especially in rural areas, is a major driver of LULCC. Further, current farming practice, bush fires, livestock, the road network and climate variability were the main direct drivers while the financial capital of farmers and customary norms regarding land tenure were listed as important indirect drivers with high confidence. Many of these driving forces, such as labour shortage and migration, are furthermore interdependent. Governmental laws, credits, the service by extension officers, conservational agriculture and foreign agricultural medium-scale investments are currently not driving

Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

2013-01-01

Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

Circumventing resistance: using values to indirectly change attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Blankenship, Kevin L; Wegener, Duane T; Murray, Renee A

2012-10-01

Most research on persuasion examines messages that directly address the attitude of interest. However, especially when message recipients are inclined to resist change, indirect methods might be more effective. Because values are rarely attacked and defended, value change could serve as a useful indirect route for attitude change. Attitudes toward affirmative action changed more when the value of equality was attacked (indirect change) than when affirmative action was directly attacked using the same message (Experiments 1-2). Changes in confidence in the value were responsible for the indirect change when the value was attacked (controlling for changes in favorability toward the value), whereas direct counterarguments to the message were responsible for the relative lack of change when the attitude was attacked directly (Experiment 2). Attacking the value of equality influenced attitudes toward policies related to the value but left policy attitudes unrelated to the value unchanged (Experiment 3). Finally, a manipulation of value confidence that left attitudes toward the value intact demonstrated similar confidence-based influences on policies related to the value of freedom (Experiment 4). Undermined value confidence also resulted in less confidence in the resulting policy attitudes controlling for the changes in the policy attitudes themselves (Experiments 3 and 4). Therefore, indirect change through value attacks presented a double threat--to both the policy attitudes and the confidence with which those policy attitudes were held (potentially leaving them open to additional influence).

Bioenergy production from perennial energy crops: a consequential LCA of 12 bioenergy scenarios including land use changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik; Astrup, Thomas

2012-12-18

In the endeavor of optimizing the sustainability of bioenergy production in Denmark, this consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluated the environmental impacts associated with the production of heat and electricity from one hectare of Danish arable land cultivated with three perennial crops: ryegrass (Lolium perenne), willow (Salix viminalis) and Miscanthus giganteus. For each, four conversion pathways were assessed against a fossil fuel reference: (I) anaerobic co-digestion with manure, (II) gasification, (III) combustion in small-to-medium scale biomass combined heat and power (CHP) plants and IV) co-firing in large scale coal-fired CHP plants. Soil carbon changes, direct and indirect land use changes as well as uncertainty analysis (sensitivity, MonteCarlo) were included in the LCA. Results showed that global warming was the bottleneck impact, where only two scenarios, namely willow and Miscanthus co-firing, allowed for an improvement as compared with the reference (-82 and -45 t CO₂-eq. ha⁻¹, respectively). The indirect land use changes impact was quantified as 310 ± 170 t CO₂-eq. ha⁻¹, representing a paramount average of 41% of the induced greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainty analysis confirmed the results robustness and highlighted the indirect land use changes uncertainty as the only uncertainty that can significantly change the outcome of the LCA results.

Climate change, land use and land surveyors

OpenAIRE

van der Molen, P.; Mitchell, D.

2016-01-01

Research reveals that the land sector is a major emitter of greenhouse gases. But the land sector has also potential to reduce emissions. Different from other emission sectors like energy and transport, the land sector (in particular the rural area including forests) has the potential to also remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere through sequestration and storage. This requires land use, land use change and forestry to be managed with respect to climate change goals. Carbon storage has ...

Land use and climate change

OpenAIRE

Koomen, E.; Moel, de, H.; Steingröver, E.G.; Rooij, van, S.A.M.; Eupen, van, M.

2012-01-01

Land use is majorly involved with climate change concerns and this chapter discusses and reviews the interrelationships between the vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation aspects of land use and climate change. We review a number of key studies on climate change issues regarding land productivity, land use and land management (LPLULM), identifying key findings, pointing out research needs, and raising economic/policy questions to ponder. Overall, this chapter goes beyond previous reviews ...

China’s Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Miao, Lijuan; Zhu, Feng; Sun, Zhanli; Moore, John C.; Cui, Xuefeng

2016-01-01

Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s–1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability. PMID:27571087

China’s Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lijuan Miao

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s–1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability.

Political ecology of land use change in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Novira, Nina

2014-05-01

Smallholder Estate Scheme by the government as a form of rural development within oil palm development policy, a policy drawn up following the increasing world market demand. This scheme includes facilitating the sale of oil palm's fresh fruit bunches, indirectly inform the people of the value of oil palm. During the early Reformation Era (1998 - 2000), almost literally, the power is in the hand of the people. The absence of long time oppression gives the people a sense of freedom. Inconsistent law enforcement during this era serves as a kind of authorization of performing land use change, either from forest or from rice field to oil palm estate. The Regional Autonomy Era (2001 to present) can also be named Legalized Land Use Change Era. Regional autonomy policy delivers a large portion of power to regional leaders to manage their region. The idea to give region their right to develop themselves without many interventions from the central government leads to uncontrollable regional policies. Many land use change were endorsed by the regional leaders in the name of regional development.

Attributing land-use change carbon emissions to exported biomass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saikku, Laura; Soimakallio, Sampo; Pingoud, Kim

2012-01-01

In this study, a simple, transparent and robust method is developed in which land-use change (LUC) emissions are retrospectively attributed to exported biomass products based on the agricultural area occupied for the production. LUC emissions account for approximately one-fifth of current greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing agricultural exports are becoming an important driver of deforestation. Brazil and Indonesia are used as case studies due to their significant deforestation in recent years. According to our study, in 2007, approximately 32% and 15% of the total agricultural land harvested and LUC emissions in Brazil and Indonesia respectively were due to exports. The most important exported single items with regard to deforestation were palm oil for Indonesia and bovine meat for Brazil. To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effectively worldwide, leakage of emissions should be avoided. This can be done, for example, by attributing embodied LUC emissions to exported biomass products. With the approach developed in this study, controversial attribution between direct and indirect LUC and amortization of emissions over the product life cycle can be overcome, as the method operates on an average basis and annual level. The approach could be considered in the context of the UNFCCC climate policy instead of, or alongside with, other instruments aimed at reducing deforestation. However, the quality of the data should be improved and some methodological issues, such as the allocation procedure in multiproduct systems and the possible dilution effect through third parties not committed to emission reduction targets, should be considered. - Highlights: ► CO 2 emissions from land use changes are highly important. ► Attribution of land use changes for products is difficult. ► Simple and robust method is developed to attribute land use change emissions.

Attributing land-use change carbon emissions to exported biomass

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saikku, Laura, E-mail: laura.saikku@helsinki.fi [University of Helsinki, P.O Box 65, 00014 University of Helsinki (Finland); Soimakallio, Sampo, E-mail: sampo.soimakallio@vtt.fi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT (Finland); Pingoud, Kim, E-mail: kim.pingoud@vtt.fi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, 02044 VTT (Finland)

2012-11-15

In this study, a simple, transparent and robust method is developed in which land-use change (LUC) emissions are retrospectively attributed to exported biomass products based on the agricultural area occupied for the production. LUC emissions account for approximately one-fifth of current greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing agricultural exports are becoming an important driver of deforestation. Brazil and Indonesia are used as case studies due to their significant deforestation in recent years. According to our study, in 2007, approximately 32% and 15% of the total agricultural land harvested and LUC emissions in Brazil and Indonesia respectively were due to exports. The most important exported single items with regard to deforestation were palm oil for Indonesia and bovine meat for Brazil. To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effectively worldwide, leakage of emissions should be avoided. This can be done, for example, by attributing embodied LUC emissions to exported biomass products. With the approach developed in this study, controversial attribution between direct and indirect LUC and amortization of emissions over the product life cycle can be overcome, as the method operates on an average basis and annual level. The approach could be considered in the context of the UNFCCC climate policy instead of, or alongside with, other instruments aimed at reducing deforestation. However, the quality of the data should be improved and some methodological issues, such as the allocation procedure in multiproduct systems and the possible dilution effect through third parties not committed to emission reduction targets, should be considered. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions from land use changes are highly important. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Attribution of land use changes for products is difficult. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simple and robust method is developed to attribute land use change emissions.

Temporal change detection of land use/land cover using GIS and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Satellite images for the years 1972, 1989, 1999 and 2016 were used for LULC ... built-up areas, pastures and bare land, agricultural land and water bodies. For the accuracy of assessment classifications, matrix error and KAPPA ... Keywords: land use/land cover change; change detection; classification; remote sensing; GIS ...

Land-Use Change and Bioenergy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2011-07-01

This publication describes the Biomass Program’s efforts to examine the intersection of land-use change and bioenergy production. It describes legislation requiring land-use change assessments, key data and modeling challenges, and the research needs to better assess and understand the impact of bioenergy policy on land-use decisions.

Indirect effects of land-use legacies determine tree colonization patterns in abandoned heathland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kepfer Rojas, Sebastian; Verheyen, Kris; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist

2015-01-01

of tree/shrubs in the heathland. Further, we used high-resolution LiDAR data to classify the vegetation and identify forest patches. In the analysis, we first used a logistic mixed model to test whether colonization of tree and shrub species differed between areas with different land-use history......Questions How do land-use legacies and distance to forest patches influence tree colonization at a post-agricultural heathland? Are colonizing species with different life-history traits affected differently by these factors? Is the effect of increased nutrient availability from land-use legacies...... and whether it was influenced by the distance to forest patches and life-history traits (seed mass) of colonizing species. Then, to determine how different factors influence colonization, we explored the direct and indirect relationships among nutrient availability, density of adult trees, canopy cover, cover...

Review of Land Use and Land Cover Change research progress

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Yue; Hou, Kang; Li, Xuxiang; Zhang, Yunwei; Chen, Pei

2018-02-01

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) can reflect the pattern of human land use in a region, and plays an important role in space soil and water conservation. The study on the change of land use patterns in the world is of great significance to cope with global climate change and sustainable development. This paper reviews the main research progress of LUCC at home and abroad, and suggests that land use change has been shifted from land use planning and management to land use change impact and driving factors. The development of remote sensing technology provides the basis and data for LUCC with dynamic monitoring and quantitative analysis. However, there is no uniform standard for land use classification at present, which brings a lot of inconvenience to the collection and analysis of land cover data. Globeland30 is an important milestone contribution to the study of international LUCC system. More attention should be paid to the accuracy and results contrasting test of land use classification obtained by remote sensing technology.

U.S. landowner behavior, land use and land cover changes, and climate change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ralph J. Alig

2003-01-01

Landowner behavior is a major determinant of land use and land cover changes. an important consideration for policy analysts concerned with global change. Study of landowner behavior aids in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change by reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. Afforestation,...

Energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of corn and cellulosic ethanol with technology improvements and land use changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Michael Q.; Han, Jeongwoo; Haq, Zia; Tyner, Wallace E.; Wu, May; Elgowainy, Amgad

2011-01-01

Use of ethanol as a transportation fuel in the United States has grown from 76 dam 3 in 1980 to over 40.1 hm 3 in 2009 - and virtually all of it has been produced from corn. It has been debated whether using corn ethanol results in any energy and greenhouse gas benefits. This issue has been especially critical in the past several years, when indirect effects, such as indirect land use changes, associated with U.S. corn ethanol production are considered in evaluation. In the past three years, modeling of direct and indirect land use changes related to the production of corn ethanol has advanced significantly. Meanwhile, technology improvements in key stages of the ethanol life cycle (such as corn farming and ethanol production) have been made. With updated simulation results of direct and indirect land use changes and observed technology improvements in the past several years, we conducted a life-cycle analysis of ethanol and show that at present and in the near future, using corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emission by more than 20%, relative to those of petroleum gasoline. On the other hand, second-generation ethanol could achieve much higher reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In a broader sense, sound evaluation of U.S. biofuel policies should account for both unanticipated consequences and technology potentials. We maintain that the usefulness of such evaluations is to provide insight into how to prevent unanticipated consequences and how to promote efficient technologies with policy intervention.

Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

Science.gov (United States)

Gries, Thomas; Redlin, Margarete; Ugarte, Juliette Espinosa

2018-02-01

For hundreds of years, human activity has modified the planet's surface through land-use practices. Policies and decisions on how land is managed and land-use changes due to replacement of forests by agricultural cropping and grazing lands affect greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural management and agroforestry and the resulting changes to the land surface alter the global carbon cycle as well as the Earth's surface albedo, both of which in turn change the Earth's radiation balance. This makes land-use change the second anthropogenic source of climate change after fossil fuel burning. However, the scientific research community has so far not been able to identify the direction and magnitude of the global impact of land-use change. This paper examines the effects of net carbon flux from land-use change on temperature by applying Granger causality and error correction models. The results reveal a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between land-use change and the temperature series as well as an opposing short-term effect such that land-use change tends to lead to global warming; however, a rise in temperature causes a decline in land-use change.

Lifestyles and Global Land-use Change

OpenAIRE

Heilig, G.K.

1995-01-01

One of the most influential publications on land-use change is a small booklet, published by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (HDP). It was written -- as its subtitle says -- as a "proposal for an IGBP-HDP Core Project" on "Relating Land Use and Global Land-Cover Change". The booklet can be seen as some kind of programmatic statement to guide international collaborative research on global land-use change. ...

Operational monitoring of land-cover change using multitemporal remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

Rogan, John

2005-11-01

Land-cover change, manifested as either land-cover modification and/or conversion, can occur at all spatial scales, and changes at local scales can have profound, cumulative impacts at broader scales. The implication of operational land-cover monitoring is that researchers have access to a continuous stream of remote sensing data, with the long term goal of providing for consistent and repetitive mapping. Effective large area monitoring of land-cover (i.e., >1000 km2) can only be accomplished by using remotely sensed images as an indirect data source in land-cover change mapping and as a source for land-cover change model projections. Large area monitoring programs face several challenges: (1) choice of appropriate classification scheme/map legend over large, topographically and phenologically diverse areas; (2) issues concerning data consistency and map accuracy (i.e., calibration and validation); (3) very large data volumes; (4) time consuming data processing and interpretation. Therefore, this dissertation research broadly addresses these challenges in the context of examining state-of-the-art image pre-processing, spectral enhancement, classification, and accuracy assessment techniques to assist the California Land-cover Mapping and Monitoring Program (LCMMP). The results of this dissertation revealed that spatially varying haze can be effectively corrected from Landsat data for the purposes of change detection. The Multitemporal Spectral Mixture Analysis (MSMA) spectral enhancement technique produced more accurate land-cover maps than those derived from the Multitemporal Kauth Thomas (MKT) transformation in northern and southern California study areas. A comparison of machine learning classifiers showed that Fuzzy ARTMAP outperformed two classification tree algorithms, based on map accuracy and algorithm robustness. Variation in spatial data error (positional and thematic) was explored in relation to environmental variables using geostatistical interpolation

Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

2015-12-01

Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

Modeling biofuel expansion effects on land use change dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Warner, Ethan; Inman, Daniel; Kunstman, Benjamin; Bush, Brian; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Macknick, Jordan; Zhang Yimin; Peterson, Steve

2013-01-01

Increasing demand for crop-based biofuels, in addition to other human drivers of land use, induces direct and indirect land use changes (LUC). Our system dynamics tool is intended to complement existing LUC modeling approaches and to improve the understanding of global LUC drivers and dynamics by allowing examination of global LUC under diverse scenarios and varying model assumptions. We report on a small subset of such analyses. This model provides insights into the drivers and dynamic interactions of LUC (e.g., dietary choices and biofuel policy) and is not intended to assert improvement in numerical results relative to other works. Demand for food commodities are mostly met in high food and high crop-based biofuel demand scenarios, but cropland must expand substantially. Meeting roughly 25% of global transportation fuel demand by 2050 with biofuels requires >2 times the land used to meet food demands under a presumed 40% increase in per capita food demand. In comparison, the high food demand scenario requires greater pastureland for meat production, leading to larger overall expansion into forest and grassland. Our results indicate that, in all scenarios, there is a potential for supply shortfalls, and associated upward pressure on prices, of food commodities requiring higher land use intensity (e.g., beef) which biofuels could exacerbate. (letter)

Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Juliá

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

Validation of land use / land cover changes for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levin, Gregor; Johannsen, Vivian Kvist; Caspersen, Ole Hjort

2018-01-01

This report presents applied methods and results for a validation of land use and land cover changes for 1990 and 2014-2016. Results indicate that generally, accuracies of land use and land cover. However, afforestation and particularly deforestation are significantly overestimated....

Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

2013-12-01

In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2015-12-01

The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

Exploring land use change in the Sahel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Laura Vang

perceptions of land use changes became apparent, however, already in the beginning of 2000, when researchers within the Land Change Science community raised their concerns about general narratives of field expansions that were assumed to progress linearly and be solely driven by population growth. Calls...... for more research on Sahelian land use changes have thus multiplied as the complexity and sometimes intricate processes of land change became apparent, and especially, the need for novel approaches that combine different perspectives has continuously been highlighted. As part of the interdisciplinary...... research program LASYRE (LAnd SYstem REsilience), this thesis responds to thes calls by applying a portfolio of different perspectives to the study of Sahelian land use changes and the causal mechanisms behind them. It examines the land use changes that have taken place in Northern Burkina Faso over...

Estimating land use / land cover changes in Denmark from 1990 - 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levin, Gregor; Kastrup Blemmer, Morten; Gyldenkærne, Steen

According to the article 3(4) of the Kyoto Protocol, Denmark is obliged to document sequestration and emission of carbon dioxide from land use and land cover and changes in these. This report documents and describes applied data end developed methods aiming at estimating amounts and changes in land...... use and land cover for Denmark for since 1990. Estimation of land use and land cover categories and changes in these is predominantly based on existing categorical (i.e. pre-classified) geographical information. Estimations are elaborated for the period from 1990 to 2005, from 2005 to 2011 and from...... 2011 to 2012. Due to limited availability of historical spatially explicit information, estimations of change in land use and land cover from 1990 up to 2011 do, to some degree, involve decisions based on expert knowledge. Due to a significant increase in the availability of detailed spatially specific...

Changing land use intensity in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van der Sluis, Theo; Pedroli, Bas; Kristensen, Søren Bech Pilgaard

2016-01-01

In recent decades the intensification of agricultural production in many European countries has been one of the key components of land-use change. The impact of agricultural intensification varies according to national and local contexts and a greater understanding of the drivers of intensification...... will help to mitigate against its negative impacts and harness potential benefits. This paper analyses changes in land use intensity in six case studies in Europe. A total of 437 landowners were interviewed and their responses were analysed in relation to changes in land use intensity and agricultural...... use intensity) versus those in the Netherlands, Denmark and Greece (decreasing). In the Mediterranean cases we observe a process where agriculture is becoming increasingly marginalised, at the same time as changes in function with regard to urbanisation and recreational land uses have taken place...

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Helbig, Manuel; Chasmer, Laura E; Desai, Ankur R; Kljun, Natascha; Quinton, William L; Sonnentag, Oliver

2017-08-01

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw-induced collapse-scar bog ('wetland') expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape-scale net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE LAND ), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature- and light-limited NEE LAND of a boreal forest-wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE LAND (-20 g C m -2 ) and wetland NEE (-24 g C m -2 ) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE LAND . In contrast, we find non-negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light-limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year-round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO 2 uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO 2 uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m -2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m -2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO 2 uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO 2 uptake of boreal forest-wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO 2 sources under continued anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. We conclude that NEE LAND changes are more likely to be

Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/29612642X; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing

The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

Science.gov (United States)

Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

2017-05-01

Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

Land Use Change Modelling in R

Science.gov (United States)

Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.

2014-12-01

Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.

Land use and land cover change based on historical space-time model

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Qiong; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Min; Zhang, Yongjing

2016-09-01

Land use and cover change is a leading edge topic in the current research field of global environmental changes and case study of typical areas is an important approach understanding global environmental changes. Taking the Qiantang River (Zhejiang, China) as an example, this study explores automatic classification of land use using remote sensing technology and analyzes historical space-time change by remote sensing monitoring. This study combines spectral angle mapping (SAM) with multi-source information and creates a convenient and efficient high-precision land use computer automatic classification method which meets the application requirements and is suitable for complex landform of the studied area. This work analyzes the histological space-time characteristics of land use and cover change in the Qiantang River basin in 2001, 2007 and 2014, in order to (i) verify the feasibility of studying land use change with remote sensing technology, (ii) accurately understand the change of land use and cover as well as historical space-time evolution trend, (iii) provide a realistic basis for the sustainable development of the Qiantang River basin and (iv) provide a strong information support and new research method for optimizing the Qiantang River land use structure and achieving optimal allocation of land resources and scientific management.

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

The Columbian Encounter and Land-Use Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, B. L. II, Butzer, Karl W.

1992-01-01

Discusses land use patterns in fifteenth-century Europe and in the Americas and the mutual influence (initiated by Columbus's arrival in the Americas) that led to land use change. Presents a historical perspective and categorization of contemporary global land use changes for the purpose of highlighting associations between past and present global…

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis along the Coastal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Agribotix GCS 077

are carried out on the land usually effect changes in its cover. ... The FAO document on land cover classification systems, (2000) partly answers this ... over the surface land, including water, vegetation, bare soils and or artificial structures. ... diseases may occur more readily in areas exposed by Land Use and Land Cover ...

Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Wise, Marshall A.

2010-06-01

Policies aimed at limiting anthropogenic climate change would result in significant transformations of the energy and land-use systems. However, increasing the demand for bioenergy could have a tremendous impact on land use, and can result in land clearing and deforestation. Wise et al. (2009a,b) analyzed an idealized policy to limit the indirect land use change emissions from bioenergy. The policy, while effective, would be difficult, if not impossible, to implement in the real world. In this paper, we consider several different land use policies that deviate from this first-best, using the Joint Global Change Research Institute’s Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Specifically, these new frameworks are (1) a policy that focuses on just the above-ground or vegetative terrestrial carbon rather than the total carbon, (2) policies that focus exclusively on incentivizing and protecting forestland, and (3) policies that apply an economic penalty on the use of biomass as a proxy to limit indirect land use change emissions. For each policy, we examine its impact on land use, land-use change emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, agricultural supply, and food prices.

Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

2015-12-01

Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions impacts of the adoption of the EU Directive on biofuels in Spain. Effect of the import of raw materials and land use changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lechon, Y.; Cabal, H.; Saez, R.

2011-01-01

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impacts of the use of different alternative biofuels in passenger vehicles in Spain in order to meet EU biofuel goals. Different crop production alternatives are analysed, including the possible import of some raw materials. Availability of land for national production of the raw materials is analysed and indirect land use changes and associated GHG emissions are quantified. There are important differences in GHG emissions of biofuels depending on the raw material used and whether this is domestically produced or imported. Ethanol production using imported cereals and FAME production using domestic rapeseed have the highest GHG emissions per kilometre driven. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) production from sunflower has shown the lowest emissions. When taking into account the results of GHG emissions savings per hectare, these findings are somehow reversed. Production of ethanol and around 12% of FAME can be done domestically. The rest will need to be imported and will cause indirect land use change (ILUC). Therefore, ethanol production will not displace any land, whereas FAME production will displace some amounts of land. Calculated ILUC factors are 29%-34%. The additional GHG emissions due to these indirect land use changes are significant (67%-344% of life cycle GHG emissions). Standalone, the EU biofuel targets can have important benefits for Spain in terms of global warming emissions avoided. However, when considering the impact of land use change effects, these benefits are significantly reduced and can even be negative. -- Highlights: → Biofuel greenhouse gas emissions in Spain using domestic and imported raw materials. → Availability of land, indirect land use changes (ILUC) and GHG emissions quantified. → Important differences in biofuels GHG emissions depending on the raw material found. → All ethanol and 12% FAME can be produced domestically with ILUC factors of 29

Biodiversity data obsolescence and land uses changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Escribano

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background Primary biodiversity records (PBR are essential in many areas of scientific research as they document the biodiversity through time and space. However, concerns about PBR quality and fitness-for-use have grown, especially as derived from taxonomical, geographical and sampling effort biases. Nonetheless, the temporal bias stemming from data ageing has received less attention. We examine the effect of changes in land use in the information currentness, and therefore data obsolescence, in biodiversity databases. Methods We created maps of land use changes for three periods (1956–1985, 1985–2000 and 2000–2012 at 5-kilometres resolution. For each cell we calculated the percentage of land use change within each period. We then overlaid distribution data about small mammals, and classified each data as ‘non-obsolete or ‘obsolete,’ depending on both the amount of land use changes in the cell, and whether changes occurred at or after the data sampling’s date. Results A total of 14,528 records out of the initial 59,677 turned out to be non-obsolete after taking into account the changes in the land uses in Navarra. These obsolete data existed in 115 of the 156 cells analysed. Furthermore, more than one half of the remaining cells holding non-obsolete records had not been visited at least for the last fifteen years. Conclusion Land use changes challenge the actual information obtainable from biodiversity datasets and therefore its potential uses. With the passage of time, one can expect a steady increase in the availability and use of biological records—but not without them becoming older and likely to be obsolete by land uses changes. Therefore, it becomes necessary to assess records’ obsolescence, as it may jeopardize the knowledge and perception of biodiversity patterns.

Sourcebook for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Projects

OpenAIRE

Pearson, Timothy; Walker, Sarah; Brown, Sandra

2013-01-01

This sourcebook is designed to be a guide for developing and implementing land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) projects for the BioCarbon Fund of the World Bank that meet the requirements for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. Only project types and carbon pools that are eligible for credit under the CDM during the first commitment period (2008-2012) ar...

Linking process and pattern of land use change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Overmars, Koen Pieter

2006-01-01

Land use change results from the interaction between the human and the natural system and therefore various scientific disciplines have developed paradigms and methods to study land use change. However, these disciplinary approaches can only cover part of the complex system of land use change. The

THE EFFECT OF LAND USE CHANGE ON LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NETHERLANDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Youneszadeh

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Netherlands is a small country with a relatively large population which experienced a rapid rate of land use changes from 2000 to 2008 years due to the industrialization and population increase. Land use change is especially related to the urban expansion and open agriculture reduction due to the enhanced economic growth. This research reports an investigation into the application of remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS in combination with statistical methods to provide a quantitative information on the effect of land use change on the land surface temperature. In this study, remote sensing techniques were used to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST by using the MODIS Terra (MOD11A2 Satellite imagery product. As land use change alters the thermal environment, the land surface temperature (LST could be a proper change indicator to show the thermal changes in relation with land use changes. The Geographical information system was further applied to extract the mean yearly land surface temperature (LST for each land use type and each province in the 2003, 2006 and 2008 years, by using the zonal statistic techniques. The results show that, the inland water and offshore area has the highest night land surface temperature (LST. Furthermore, the Zued (South-Holland province has the highest night LST value in the 2003, 2006 and 2008 years. The result of this research will be helpful tool for urban planners and environmental scientists by providing the critical information about the land surface temperature.

Techniques for land use change detection using Landsat imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Angelici, G. L.; Bryant, N. A.; Friedman, S. Z.

1977-01-01

A variety of procedures were developed for the delineation of areas of land use change using Landsat Multispectral Scanner data and the generation of statistics revealing the nature of the changes involved (i.e., number of acres changed from rural to urban). Techniques of the Image Based Information System were utilized in all stages of the procedure, from logging the Landsat data and registering two frames of imagery, to extracting the changed areas and printing tabulations of land use change in acres. Two alternative methods of delineating land use change are presented while enumerating the steps of the entire process. The Houston, Texas urban area, and the Orlando, Florida urban area, are used as illustrative examples of various procedures.

Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verburg, P.H.

2006-01-01

In spite of the many advances in land use and land cover change modelling over the past decade many challenges remain. One of these challenges relates to the explicit treatment of feedback mechanisms in descriptive models of the land use system. This paper argues for model-based analysis to explore

Land Use Change and Land Degradation in Southeastern Mediterranean Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Symeonakis, Elias; Calvo-Cases, Adolfo; Arnau-Rosalen, Eva

2007-07-01

The magnitude of the environmental and social consequences of soil erosion and land degradation in semiarid areas of the Mediterranean region has long been recognized and studied. This paper investigates the interrelationship between land use/cover (LULC) changes and land degradation using remotely sensed and ancillary data for southeastern Spain. The area of study, the Xaló River catchment situated in the north of the Alicante Province, has been subjected to a number of LULC changes during the second half of the 20th century such as agricultural abandonment, forest fires, and tourist development. Aerial photographs dating back to 1956 were used for the delineation of historic LULC types; Landsat ETM+ data were used for the analysis and mapping of current conditions. Two important indicators of land degradation, namely, susceptibility to surface runoff and soil erosion, were estimated for the two dates using easily parametrizable models. The comparison of 1956 to 2000 conditions shows an overall “recuperating” trend over the catchment and increased susceptibility to soil erosion only in 3% of the catchment area. The results also identify potential degradation hot-spots where mitigation measures should be taken to prevent further degradation. The readily implemented methodology, based on modest data requirements demonstrated by this study, is a useful tool for catchment to regional scale land use change and land degradation studies and strategic planning for environmental management.

Changing relationships between land use and environmental characteristics and their consequences for spatially explicit land-use change prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, M.; Veldkamp, A.

2012-01-01

Spatially explicit land-use change prediction is often based on environmental characteristics of land-use types, such as soil type and slope, as observed at one time instant. This approach presumes that relationships between land use and environment are constant over time. We argue that such

Changes in Carbon Emissions in Colombian Savannas Derived From Recent Land use and Land Cover Change

Science.gov (United States)

Etter, A.; Sarmiento, A.

2007-12-01

The global contribution of carbon emissions from land use dynamics and change to the global carbon (C) cycle is still uncertain, a major concern in global change modeling. Carbon emission from fires in the tropics is significant and represents 9% of the net primary production, and 50% of worldwide C emissions from fires are attributable to savanna fires. Such emissions may vary significantly due to differences in ecosystem types. Most savanna areas are devoted to grazing land uses making methane emissions also important in savanna ecosystems. Land use change driven by intensification of grazing and cropping has become a major factor affecting C emission dynamics from savanna regions. Colombia has some 17 MHa of mesic savannas which have been historically burned. Due to changes in market demands and improved accessibility during the last 20 years, important areas of savannas changed land use from predominantly extensive grazing to crops and intensive grazing systems. This research models and evaluates the impacts of such land use changes on the spatial and temporal burning patterns and C emissions in the Orinoco savannas of Colombia. We address the effects of land use change patterns using remote sensing data from MODIS and Landsat, ecosystem mapping products, and spatial GIS analysis. First we map the expansion of the agricultural frontier from the 1980s-2000s. We then model the changes in land use from the 1980s using a statistical modeling approach to analyze and quantify the impact of accessibility, ecosystem type and land tenure. We calculate the effects on C emissions from fire regimes and other sources of C based on patterns and extent of burned areas in the 2000s for different savanna ecosystem types and land uses. In the Llanos the fire regime exhibits a marked seasonal variability with most fire events occurring during the dry season between December-March. Our analysis shows that fire frequencies vary consistently between 0.6 and 2.8 fires.yr-1 per 2

Impact of land cover and land use change on runoff characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Sajikumar, N; Remya, R S

2015-09-15

Change in Land Cover and Land Use (LCLU) influences the runoff characteristics of a drainage basin to a large extent, which in turn, affects the surface and groundwater availability of the area, and hence leads to further change in LCLU. This forms a vicious circle. Hence it becomes essential to assess the effect of change in LCLU on the runoff characteristics of a region in general and of small watershed levels (sub-basin levels) in particular. Such an analysis can effectively be carried out by using watershed simulation models with integrated GIS frame work. SWAT (Soil and Water Analysis Tool) model, being one of the versatile watershed simulation models, is found to be suitable for this purpose as many GIS integration modules are available for this model (e.g. ArcSWAT, MWSWAT). Watershed simulation using SWAT requires the land use and land cover data, soil data and many other features. With the availability of repository of satellite imageries, both from Indian and foreign sources, it becomes possible to use the concurrent local land use and land cover data, thereby enabling more accurate modelling of small watersheds. Such availability will also enable us to assess the effect of LCLU on runoff characteristics and their reverse impact. The current study assesses the effect of land use and land cover on the runoff characteristics of two watersheds in Kerala, India. It also assesses how the change in land use and land cover in the last few decades affected the runoff characteristics of these watersheds. It is seen that the reduction in the forest area amounts to 60% and 32% in the analysed watersheds. However, the changes in the surface runoff for these watersheds are not comparable with the changes in the forest area but are within 20%. Similarly the maximum (peak) value of runoff has increased by an amount of 15% only. The lesser (aforementioned) effect than expected might be due to the fact that forest has been converted to agricultural purpose with major

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Carbon dioxide emissions from forestry and peat land using land-use/land-cover changes in North Sumatra, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Basyuni, M.; Sulistyono, N.; Slamet, B.; Wati, R.

2018-03-01

Forestry and peat land including land-based is one of the critical sectors in the inventory of CO2 emissions and mitigation efforts of climate change. The present study analyzed the land-use and land-cover changes between 2006 and 2012 in North Sumatra, Indonesia with emphasis to CO2 emissions. The land-use/land-cover consists of twenty-one classes. Redd Abacus software version 1.1.7 was used to measure carbon emission source as well as the predicted 2carbon dioxide emissions from 2006-2024. Results showed that historical emission (2006-2012) in this province, significant increases in the intensive land use namely dry land agriculture (109.65%), paddy field (16.23%) and estate plantation (15.11%). On the other hand, land-cover for forest decreased significantly: secondary dry land forest (7.60%), secondary mangrove forest (9.03%), secondary swamp forest (33.98%), and the largest one in the mixed dry land agriculture (79.96%). The results indicated that North Sumatra province is still a CO2 emitter, and the most important driver of emissions mostly derived from agricultural lands that contributed 2carbon dioxide emissions by 48.8%, changing from forest areas into degraded lands (classified as barren land and shrub) shared 30.6% and estate plantation of 22.4%. Mitigation actions to reduce carbon emissions was proposed such as strengthening the forest land, rehabilitation of degraded area, development and plantation forest, forest protection and forest fire control, and reforestation and conservation activity. These mitigation actions have been simulated to reduce 15% for forestry and 18% for peat land, respectively. This data is likely to contribute to the low emission development in North Sumatra.

Historical Image Registration and Land-Use Land-Cover Change Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang-Ju Jao

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Historical aerial images are important to retain past ground surface information. The land-use land-cover change in the past can be identified using historical aerial images. Automatic historical image registration and stitching is essential because the historical image pose information was usually lost. In this study, the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT algorithm was used for feature extraction. Subsequently, the present study used the automatic affine transformation algorithm for historical image registration, based on SIFT features and control points. This study automatically determined image affine parameters and simultaneously transformed from an image coordinate system to a ground coordinate system. After historical aerial image registration, the land-use land-cover change was analyzed between two different years (1947 and 1975 at the Tseng Wen River estuary. Results show that sandbars and water zones were transformed into a large number of fish ponds between 1947 and 1975.

Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

Science.gov (United States)

Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

2012-12-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

Biofuels, land use change and smallholder livelihoods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hought, Joy Marie; Birch-Thomsen, Torben; Petersen, Jacob

2012-01-01

of biofuel feedstock adoption by smallholders in the northwestern Cambodian province of Banteay Meanchey, a region undergoing rapid land use change following the formal end of the Khmer Rouge era in 1989 and subsequent rural resettlement. Remote sensing data combined with field interviews pointed to three...... discrete phases of land use change in this period: first, as a result of the establishment of new settlements (mainly subsistence rice production); second, via the expansion of cash crop cultivation into forested areas (mainly grown on upland fields); and third, due to the response of smallholders...... market had severe consequences for livelihoods and food security. The paper concludes with a discussion of the probable impacts of the emerging cassava market on trajectories in land use, land ownership, and land access in rural Cambodia. The case looks at biofuel adoption in the context of other land...

Image-based change estimation for land cover and land use monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Jeremy Webb; C. Kenneth Brewer; Nicholas Daniels; Chris Maderia; Randy Hamilton; Mark Finco; Kevin A. Megown; Andrew J. Lister

2012-01-01

The Image-based Change Estimation (ICE) project resulted from the need to provide estimates and information for land cover and land use change over large areas. The procedure uses Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot locations interpreted using two different dates of imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP). In order to determine a suitable...

Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

2017-12-01

In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

Analyzing Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using Remote Sensing and GIS in Rize, North-East Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Reis, Selçuk

2008-10-01

Mapping land use/land cover (LULC) changes at regional scales is essential for a wide range of applications, including landslide, erosion, land planning, global warming etc. LULC alterations (based especially on human activities), negatively effect the patterns of climate, the patterns of natural hazard and socio-economic dynamics in global and local scale. In this study, LULC changes are investigated by using of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Rize, North-East Turkey. For this purpose, firstly supervised classification technique is applied to Landsat images acquired in 1976 and 2000. Image Classification of six reflective bands of two Landsat images is carried out by using maximum likelihood method with the aid of ground truth data obtained from aerial images dated 1973 and 2002. The second part focused on land use land cover changes by using change detection comparison (pixel by pixel). In third part of the study, the land cover changes are analyzed according to the topographic structure (slope and altitude) by using GIS functions. The results indicate that severe land cover changes have occurred in agricultural (36.2%) (especially in tea gardens), urban (117%), pasture (-72.8%) and forestry (-12.8%) areas has been experienced in the region between 1976 and 2000. It was seen that the LULC changes were mostly occurred in coastal areas and in areas having low slope values.

Analyzing Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using Remote Sensing and GIS in Rize, North-East Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Selçuk Reis

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Mapping land use/land cover (LULC changes at regional scales is essential for a wide range of applications, including landslide, erosion, land planning, global warming etc. LULC alterations (based especially on human activities, negatively effect the patterns of climate, the patterns of natural hazard and socio-economic dynamics in global and local scale. In this study, LULC changes are investigated by using of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS in Rize, North-East Turkey. For this purpose, firstly supervised classification technique is applied to Landsat images acquired in 1976 and 2000. Image Classification of six reflective bands of two Landsat images is carried out by using maximum likelihood method with the aid of ground truth data obtained from aerial images dated 1973 and 2002. The second part focused on land use land cover changes by using change detection comparison (pixel by pixel. In third part of the study, the land cover changes are analyzed according to the topographic structure (slope and altitude by using GIS functions. The results indicate that severe land cover changes have occurred in agricultural (36.2% (especially in tea gardens, urban (117%, pasture (-72.8% and forestry (-12.8% areas has been experienced in the region between 1976 and 2000. It was seen that the LULC changes were mostly occurred in coastal areas and in areas having low slope values.

Monitoring Urban Land Cover/land Use Change in Algiers City Using Landsat Images (1987-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchachi, B.; Zhong, Y.

2017-09-01

Monitoring the Urban Land Cover/Land Use change detection is important as one of the main driving forces of environmental change because Urbanization is the biggest changes in form of Land, resulting in a decrease in cultivated areas. Using remote sensing ability to solve land resources problems. The purpose of this research is to map the urban areas at different times to monitor and predict possible urban changes, were studied the annual growth urban land during the last 29 years in Algiers City. Improving the productiveness of long-term training in land mapping, were have developed an approach by the following steps: 1) pre-processing for improvement of image characteristics; 2) extract training sample candidates based on the developed methods; and 3) Derive maps and analyzed of Algiers City on an annual basis from 1987 to 2016 using a Supervised Classifier Support Vector Machine (SVMs). Our result shows that the strategy of urban land followed in the region of Algiers City, developed areas mostly were extended to East, West, and South of Central Regions. The urban growth rate is linked with National Office of Statistics data. Future studies are required to understand the impact of urban rapid lands on social, economy and environmental sustainability, it will also close the gap in data of urbanism available, especially on the lack of reliable data, environmental and urban planning for each municipality in Algiers, develop experimental models to predict future land changes with statistically significant confidence.

Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Janes, Victoria; Whitehead, Paul G; Dadson, Simon J; Holman, Ian P

2017-07-15

The combined indirect and direct impacts of land use change and climate change on river water quality were assessed. A land use allocation model was used to evaluate the response of the catchment land use to long-term climatic changes. Its results were used to drive a water quality model and assess the impact of climatic alterations on freshwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the likelihood of such response. The River Thames catchment (UK) was used as a case-study. If land use is considered as static parameter, according to the model results, climate change alone should reduce the average nitrate concentration, although just by a small amount, by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to reduced runoff (and lower export of nitrate from agricultural soils) and increased instream denitrification, and should increase the average phosphorus concentration by 12% by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to a reduction of the effluent dilution capacity of the river flow. However, the results of this study also show that these long-term climatic alterations are likely to lead to a reduction in the arable land in the Thames, replaced by improved grassland, due to a decrease in agriculture profitability in the UK. Taking into account the dynamic co-evolution of land use with climate, the average nitrate concentration is expected to be decreased by around 6% by the 2050s in both the upper and the lower Thames, following the model results, and the average phosphorus concentration increased by 13% in the upper Thames and 5% in the lower Thames. On the long term (2080s), nitrate is expected to decrease by 9% and 8% (upper and lower Thames respectively) and phosphorus not to change in the upper thames and increase by 5% in the lower Thames. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC): an interdisciplinary research program.

Science.gov (United States)

Justice, Chris; Gutman, Garik; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad

2015-01-15

Understanding Land Cover/Land Use Change (LCLUC) in diverse regions of the world and at varied spatial scales is one of the important challenges in global change research. In this article, we provide a brief overview of the NASA LCLUC program, its focus areas, and the importance of satellite remote sensing observations in LCLUC research including future directions. The LCLUC Program was designed to be a cross-cutting theme within NASA's Earth Science program. The program aims to develop and use remote sensing technologies to improve understanding of human interactions with the environment. Since 1997, the NASA LCLUC program has supported nearly 280 research projects on diverse topics such as forest loss and carbon, urban expansion, land abandonment, wetland loss, agricultural land use change and land use change in mountain systems. The NASA LCLUC program emphasizes studies where land-use changes are rapid or where there are significant regional or global LCLUC implications. Over a period of years, the LCLUC program has contributed to large regional science programs such as Land Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS). The primary emphasis of the program will remain on using remote sensing datasets for LCLUC research. The program will continue to emphasize integration of physical and social sciences to address regional to global scale issues of LCLUC for the benefit of society. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An approach to computing marginal land use change carbon intensities for bioenergy in policy applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, Marshall; Hodson, Elke L.; Mignone, Bryan K.; Clarke, Leon; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Luckow, Patrick

2015-01-01

model to analyze direct and indirect land use change and carbon emissions. • Mathematical approach for intertemporal land use change emissions from bioenergy • General method for comparing carbon emissions from bioenergy to fossil fuels

Land Use, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services

OpenAIRE

Attavanich, Witsanu; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; McCarl, Bruce A.

2011-01-01

The combination of shifts in crop production and a reduction in wetland ecosystems associated with climate change are forecast to reduce native grasslands and associated obligate species. Most estimates of climate change impacts to wildlife, however, do not account for how humans are likely to alter land use in response to climate changes. We examine the joint effect of climate change and the resulting land use response of farmers on waterfowl production in the Prairie Pothole Region of Nor...

The causes of land-use and land-cover change : moving beyond the myths

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lambin, E.F.; Turner, B.L.; Geist, H.J.; Agbola, S.B.; Angelsen, A.; Bruce, J.W.; Coomes, O.T.; Dirzo, R.; Fischer, G.; Folke, C.; George, P.S.; Homewood, K.; Imbernon, J.; Leemans, R.; Xiubin Li,; Moran, E.F.; Mortimore, M.; Ramakrishnan, P.S.; Richards, J.F.; Skanes, H.; Steffen, W.; Stone, G.D.; Svedin, U.; Veldkamp, A.; Vogel, C.; Jianchu Xu,

2001-01-01

Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are

Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

2009-04-01

In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

Land Use and Change

Science.gov (United States)

Irwin, Daniel E.

2004-01-01

The overall purpose of this training session is to familiarize Central American project cooperators with the remote sensing and image processing research that is being conducted by the NASA research team and to acquaint them with the data products being produced in the areas of Land Cover and Land Use Change and carbon modeling under the NASA SERVIR project. The training session, therefore, will be both informative and practical in nature. Specifically, the course will focus on the physics of remote sensing, various satellite and airborne sensors (Landsat, MODIS, IKONOS, Star-3i), processing techniques, and commercial off the shelf image processing software.

The impact of land use/land cover changes on land degradation dynamics: a Mediterranean case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bajocco, S; De Angelis, A; Perini, L; Ferrara, A; Salvati, L

2012-05-01

In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Land Degradation Dynamics: A Mediterranean Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Bajocco, S.; De Angelis, A.; Perini, L.; Ferrara, A.; Salvati, L.

2012-05-01

In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.

Land use/land cover changes around Rameshwaram Island, east coast of India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Gowthaman, R.; Dwarakish, G.S.; Sanilkumar, V.

Land-use/land cover changes are studied using the Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS-1C, IRS-6) Linear Image Self-scan Sensor (LISS) III data of 1998 and 2010 Coastal land use categories such as sand, vegetation, coral reef and water have been...

Implications of climate and land use change: Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Jefferson S.; Murgueitio, Enrique; Calle, Zoraida; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; Stallard, Robert F.; Balvanera, Patricia; Hall, Jefferson S.; Kirn, Vanessa; Yanguas-Fernandez, Estrella

2015-01-01

This chapter relates ecosystem services to climate change and land use. The bulk of the chapter focuses on ecosystem services and steepland land use in the humid Neotropics – what is lost with land-cover changed, and what is gained with various types of restoration that are sustainable given private ownership. Many case studies are presented later in the white paper. The USGS contribution relates to climate change and the role of extreme weather events in land-use planning.

Analysis of economic values of land use and land cover changes in crisis territories by satellite data: models of socio-economy and population dynamics in war

Science.gov (United States)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Yuschenko, Maxim; Movchan, Dmytro; Kopachevsky, Ivan

2017-10-01

Problem of remote sensing data harnessing for decision making in conflict territories is considered. Approach for analysis of socio-economic and demographic parameters with a limited set of data and deep uncertainty is described. Number of interlinked techniques to estimate a population and economy in crisis territories are proposed. Stochastic method to assessment of population dynamics using multi-source data using remote sensing data is proposed. Adaptive Markov's chain based method to study of land-use changes using satellite data is proposed. Proposed approach is applied to analysis of socio-economic situation in Donbas (East Ukraine) territory of conflict in 2014-2015. Land-use and landcover patterns for different periods were analyzed using the Landsat and MODIS data . The land-use classification scheme includes the following categories: (1) urban or built-up land, (2) barren land, (3) cropland, (4) horticulture farms, (5) livestock farms, (6) forest, and (7) water. It was demonstrated, that during the period 2014-2015 was not detected drastic changes in land-use structure of study area. Heterogeneously distributed decreasing of horticulture farms (4-6%), livestock farms (5-6%), croplands (3-4%), and increasing of barren land (6-7%) have been observed. Way to analyze land-cover productivity variations using satellite data is proposed. Algorithm is based on analysis of time-series of NDVI and NDWI distributions. Drastic changes of crop area and its productivity were detected. Set of indirect indicators, such as night light intensity, is also considered. Using the approach proposed, using the data utilized, the local and regional GDP, local population, and its dynamics are estimated.

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nitin Kumar Tripathi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

Science.gov (United States)

Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

2007-01-01

Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

Land use/Land Cover Changes and Causes of Deforestation in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The objective of this paper is to provide the non-existent data on land use/land cover changes in the Wilberforce Island for the purposes of determining the causes of deforestation and changes in the vegetation cover for a 13 – year period. Accordingly, 125 questionnaires were administered in five communities to determine ...

Using Land Surface Phenology to Detect Land Use Change in the Northern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, L. H.; Henebry, G. M.

2017-12-01

The Northern Great Plains of the US have been undergoing many types of land cover / land use change over the past two decades, including expansion of irrigation, conversion of grassland to cropland, biofuels production, urbanization, and fossil fuel mining. Much of the literature on these changes has relied on post-classification change detection based on a limited number of observations per year. Here we demonstrate an approach to characterize land dynamics through land surface phenology (LSP) by synergistic use of image time series at two scales. Our study areas include regions of interest (ROIs) across the Northern Great Plains located within Landsat path overlap zones to boost the number of valid observations (free of clouds or snow) each year. We first compute accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) from MODIS 8-day composites of land surface temperature (MOD11A2 and MYD11A2). Using Landsat Collection 1 surface reflectance-derived vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI), we then fit at each pixel a downward convex quadratic model linking the vegetation index to each year's progression of AGDD. This quadratic equation exhibits linearity in a mathematical sense; thus, the fitted models can be linearly mixed and unmixed using a set of LSP endmembers (defined by the fitted parameter coefficients of the quadratic model) that represent "pure" land cover types with distinct seasonal patterns found within the region, such as winter wheat, spring wheat, maize, soybean, sunflower, hay/pasture/grassland, developed/built-up, among others. Information about land cover corresponding to each endmember are provided by the NLCD (National Land Cover Dataset) and CDL (Cropland Data Layer). We use linear unmixing to estimate the likely proportion of each LSP endmember within particular areas stratified by latitude. By tracking the proportions over the 2001-2011 period, we can quantify various types of land transitions in the Northern Great Plains.

Land cover/land use change in semi-arid Inner Mongolia: 1992-2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John, Ranjeet; Chen Jiquan; Lu Nan; Wilske, Burkhard, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States)

2009-10-15

The semi-arid grasslands in Inner Mongolia (IM) are under increasing stress owing to climate change and rapid socio-economic development in the recent past. We investigated changes in land cover/land use and landscape structure between 1992 and 2004 through the analysis of AVHRR and MODIS derived land cover data. The scale of analysis included the regional level (i.e. the whole of IM) as well as the level of the dominant biomes (i.e. the grassland and desert). We quantified proportional change, rate of change and the changes in class-level landscape metrics using the landscape structure analysis program FRAGSTATS. The dominant land cover types, grassland and barren, 0.47 and 0.27 million km{sup 2}, respectively, have increased proportionally. Cropland and urban land use also increased to 0.15 million km{sup 2} and 2197 km{sup 2}, respectively. However, the results further indicated increases in both the homogeneity and fragmentation of the landscape. Increasing homogeneity was mainly related to the reduction in minority cover types such as savanna, forests and permanent wetlands and increasing cohesion, aggregation index and clumpy indices. Conversely, increased fragmentation of the landscape was based on the increase in patch density and the interspersion/juxtaposition index (IJI). It is important to note the socio-economic growth in this fragile ecosystem, manifested by an increasing proportion of agricultural and urban land use not just at the regional level but also at the biome level in the context of regional climate change and increasing water stress.

Land cover/land use change in semi-arid Inner Mongolia: 1992-2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

John, Ranjeet; Chen Jiquan; Lu Nan; Wilske, Burkhard

2009-01-01

The semi-arid grasslands in Inner Mongolia (IM) are under increasing stress owing to climate change and rapid socio-economic development in the recent past. We investigated changes in land cover/land use and landscape structure between 1992 and 2004 through the analysis of AVHRR and MODIS derived land cover data. The scale of analysis included the regional level (i.e. the whole of IM) as well as the level of the dominant biomes (i.e. the grassland and desert). We quantified proportional change, rate of change and the changes in class-level landscape metrics using the landscape structure analysis program FRAGSTATS. The dominant land cover types, grassland and barren, 0.47 and 0.27 million km 2 , respectively, have increased proportionally. Cropland and urban land use also increased to 0.15 million km 2 and 2197 km 2 , respectively. However, the results further indicated increases in both the homogeneity and fragmentation of the landscape. Increasing homogeneity was mainly related to the reduction in minority cover types such as savanna, forests and permanent wetlands and increasing cohesion, aggregation index and clumpy indices. Conversely, increased fragmentation of the landscape was based on the increase in patch density and the interspersion/juxtaposition index (IJI). It is important to note the socio-economic growth in this fragile ecosystem, manifested by an increasing proportion of agricultural and urban land use not just at the regional level but also at the biome level in the context of regional climate change and increasing water stress.

Land use and land cover change in the Western Cape Province: quantification of changes & understanding of driving factors

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Tizora, P

2016-07-01

Full Text Available changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and incited issues such as urban sprawl, marginalization of the poor, limited public access to resources, land degradation and climate change. This paper seeks to understand the most significant drivers of LULC...

Human land-use and soil change

Science.gov (United States)

Wills, Skye A.; Williams, Candiss O.; Duniway, Michael C.; Veenstra, Jessica; Seybold, Cathy; Pressley, DeAnn

2017-01-01

Soil change refers to the alteration of soil and soil properties over time in one location, as opposed to soil variability across space. Although soils change with pedogensis, this chapter focuses on human caused soil change. Soil change can occur with human use and management over long or short time periods and small or large scales. While change can be negative or positive; often soil change is observed when short-term or narrow goals overshadow the other soil’s ecosystem services. Many soils have been changed in their chemical, physical or biological properties through agricultural activities, including cultivation, tillage, weeding, terracing, subsoiling, deep plowing, manure and fertilizer addition, liming, draining, and irrigation. Assessing soil change depends upon the ecosystem services and soil functions being evaluated. The interaction of soil properties with the type and intensity of management and disturbance determines the changes that will be observed. Tillage of cropland disrupts aggregates and decreases soil organic carbon content which can lead to decreased infiltration, increased erosion, and reduced biological function. Improved agricultural management systems can increase soil functions including crop productivity and sustainability. Forest management is most intensive during harvesting and seedling establishment. Most active management in forests causes disturbance of the soil surface which may include loss of forest floor organic materials, increases in bulk density, and increased risk of erosion. In grazing lands, pasture management often includes periods of biological, chemical and physical disturbance in addition to the grazing management imposed on rangelands. Grazing animals have both direct and indirect impacts on soil change. Hoof action can lead to the disturbance of biological crusts and other surface features impairing the soil’s physical, biological and hydrological function. There are clear feedbacks between vegetative systems

Quantitative analysis of agricultural land use change in China

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Jieming; Dong, Wenjie; Wang, Shuyu; Fu, Yuqing

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on land use change in China. Crop sown area is used as index to quantitatively analyze the temporal-spatial changes and the utilization of the agricultural land. A new concept is defined as potential multiple cropping index to reflect the potential sowing ability. The impacting mechanism, land use status and its surplus capacity are investigated as well. The main conclusions are as following; During 1949-2010, the agricultural land was the greatest in amount in the middle of China, followed by that in the country's eastern and western regions. The most rapid increase and decrease of agricultural land were observed in Xinjiang and North China respectively, Northwest China and South China is also changed rapid. The variation trend before 1980 differed significantly from that after 1980. Agricultural land was affected by both natural and social factors, such as regional climate and environmental changes, population growth, economic development, and implementation of policies. In this paper, the effects of temperature and urbanization on the coverage of agriculture land are evaluated, and the results show that the urbanization can greatly affects the amount of agriculture land in South China, Northeast China, Xinjiang and Southwest China. From 1980 to 2009, the extent of agricultural land use had increased as the surplus capacity had decreased. Still, large remaining potential space is available, but the future utilization of agricultural land should be carried out with scientific planning and management for the sustainable development.

Impacts of historic and projected land-cover, land-use, and land-management change on carbon and water fluxes: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, D. M.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lawrence, P.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to intensify to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the broad question of impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) as well as more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, and data requirements in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. LUMIP is multi-faceted and aims to advance our understanding of land-use change from several perspectives. In particular, LUMIP includes a factorial set of land-only simulations that differ from each other with respect to the specific treatment of land use or land management (e.g., irrigation active or not, crop fertilization active or not, wood harvest on or not), or in terms of prescribed climate. This factorial series of experiments serves several purposes and is designed to provide a detailed assessment of how the specification of land-cover change and land management affects the carbon, water, and energy cycle response to land-use change. The potential analyses that are possible through this set of experiments are vast. For example, comparing a control experiment with all land management active to an experiment with no irrigation allows a multi-model assessment of whether or not the increasing use of irrigation during the 20th century is likely to have significantly altered trends of regional water and energy fluxes (and therefore climate) and/or crop yield and carbon fluxes in agricultural regions. Here, we will present preliminary results from the factorial set of experiments utilizing the Community Land Model (CLM5). The analyses presented here will help guide multi-model analyses once the full set of LUMIP simulations are available.

The impact of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Atmospheric Chemistry-Climate Interactions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ganzeveld, L.N.; Bouwman, L.

2010-01-01

To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and land use changes on atmospheric chemistry using the chemistry-climate model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy

LAND USE LAND COVER CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES - A REVIEW

OpenAIRE

Pranav Sharma, Gaurang Gupta, Paritosh Prabhakar, Sheetal Tiwari, Pankaj Kathait, Yash Pathak; Nitin Mishra; Sanjeev Kumar

2017-01-01

The land use change has generally occurred locally, regionally and worldwide over the last few decades and will carry on in the future as well. The increment in urbanization has a major impact on groundwater and it is major concern over the few years to those who are involved in groundwater studies. The enlargement of the urbanization area results in decrease in infiltration, which affect the groundwater recharge and storage. The land use change has to be evaluated properly using conventional...

Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

2016-02-01

This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

Impact of land use change on soil erodibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Taleshian Jeloudar

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Vulnerability of soil separates to detachment by water is described as soil erodibility by Universal Soil Loss Equation which can be affected by land use change. In this study it was attempted to quantify the changes of Universal Soil Loss Equation K-factor and its soil driving factors in three land uses including rangeland, rainfed farming, and orchards in Babolrood watershed, northern Iran. Soil composite samples were obtained from two layers in three land uses, and the related soil physico-chemical properties were measured. The rainfed farming land use showed the highest clay contents, but the highest amounts of soil organic matter and sand particles were found in orchard land use. The high intensity of tillage led to the significant decrease of soil aggregate stability and permeability in the rainfed farming land use. The Universal Soil Loss Equation K-factor was negatively correlated with soil permeability (r=-0.77**. In rangeland, the K-factor (0.045 Mg h/MJ/mm was significantly higher and the particle size distribution had a great impact on the K-factor. The orchard land use, converted from the rangeland, did not show any increase of soils erodibility and can potentially be introduced as a good alternative land use in sloping areas. However, more detailed studies on environmental, social and economic aspects of this land use are needed.

Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiran Han

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

Land-Use Change and the Billion Ton 2016 Resource Assessment: Understanding the Effects of Land Management on Environmental Indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Kline, K. L.; Eaton, L. M.; Efroymson, R.; Davis, M. R.; Dunn, J.; Langholtz, M. H.

2016-12-01

The federal government, led by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), quantified potential U.S. biomass resources for expanded production of renewable energy and bioproducts in the 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16) (DOE 2016). Volume 1 of the report provides analysis of projected supplies from 2015 to2040. Volume 2 (forthcoming) evaluates changes in environmental indicators for water quality and quantity, carbon, air quality, and biodiversity associated with production scenarios in BT16 volume 1. This presentation will review land-use allocations under the projected biomass production scenarios and the changes in land management that are implied, including drivers of direct and indirect LUC. National and global concerns such as deforestation and displacement of food production are addressed. The choice of reference scenario, input parameters and constraints (e.g., regarding land classes, availability, and productivity) drive LUC results in any model simulation and are reviewed to put BT16 impacts into context. The principal LUC implied in BT16 supply scenarios involves the transition of 25-to-47 million acres (net) from annual crops in 2015 baseline to perennial cover by 2040 under the base case and 3% yield growth case, respectively. We conclude that clear definitions of land parameters and effects are essential to assess LUC. A lack of consistency in parameters and outcomes of historic LUC analysis in the U.S. underscores the need for science-based approaches.

Effects of future land use and ecosystem changes on boundary-layer meteorology and air quality

Science.gov (United States)

Tai, A. P. K.; Wang, L.; Sadeke, M.

2017-12-01

Land vegetation plays key roles shaping boundary-layer meteorology and air quality via various pathways. Vegetation can directly affect surface ozone via dry deposition and biogenic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Transpiration from land plants can also influence surface temperature, soil moisture and boundary-layer mixing depth, thereby indirectly affecting surface ozone. Future changes in the distribution, density and physiology of vegetation are therefore expected to have major ramifications for surface ozone air quality. In our study, we examine two aspects of potential vegetation changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the fully coupled land-atmosphere configuration, and evaluate their implications on meteorology and air quality: 1) land use change, which alters the distribution of plant functional types and total leaf density; and 2) ozone damage on vegetation, which alters leaf density and physiology (e.g., stomatal resistance). We find that, following the RCP8.5 scenario for 2050, global cropland expansion induces only minor changes in surface ozone in tropical and subtropical regions, but statistically significant changes by up to +4 ppbv in midlatitude North America and East Asia, mostly due to higher surface temperature that enhances biogenic VOC emissions, and reduced dry deposition to a lesser degree. These changes are in turn to driven mostly by meteorological changes that include a shift from latent to sensible heat in the surface energy balance and reduced soil moisture, reflecting not only local responses but also a northward expansion of the Hadley Cell. On the other hand, ozone damage on vegetation driven by rising anthropogenic emissions is shown to induce a further enhancement of ozone by up to +6 ppbv in midlatitude regions by 2050. This reflects a strong localized positive feedback, with severe ozone damage in polluted regions generally inducing stomatal closure, which in turn reduces transpiration, increases

Combining emperical and theory-based land use modelling approaches to assess future availability of land and economic potential for sustainable biofuel production: Argentina as a case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, Floortje; van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André; Verstegen, Judith; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.

2014-01-01

In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

Correlation between land use changes and shoreline changes around THE Nakdong River in Korea using landsat images.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, J. S.; Lim, C.; Baek, S. G.; Shin, S.

2015-12-01

Coastal erosion has badly affected the marine environment, as well as the safety of various coastal structures. In order to monitor shoreline changes due to coastal erosion, remote sensing techniques are being utilized. The land-cover map classifies the physical material on the surface of the earth, and it can be utilized in establishing eco-policy and land-use policy. In this study, we analyzed the correlation between land-use changes around the Nakdong River and shoreline changes at Busan Dadaepo Beach adjacent to the river. We produced the land-cover map based on the guidelines published by the Ministry of Environment Korea, using eight Landsat satellite images obtained from 1984 to 2015. To observe land use changes around the Nakdong River, the study site was set to include the surroundings areas of the Busan Dadaepo Beach, the Nakdong River as well as its estuary, and also Busan New Port. For the land-use classification of the study site, we also produced a land-cover map divided into seven categories according to the Ministry of Environment, Korea guidelines and using the most accurate Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM). Land use changes inland, at 500m from the shoreline, were excluded for the correlation analysis between land use changes and shoreline changes. The other categories, except for the water category, were transformed into numerical values and the land-use classifications, using all other categories, were analyzed. Shoreline changes were observed by setting the base-line and three cut-lines. We assumed that longshore bars around the Nakdong River and the shoreline of the Busan Dadaepo Beach are affected. Therefore, we expect that shoreline changes happen due to the influence of barren land, wetlands, built-up areas and deposition. The causes are due to natural factors, such as weather, waves, tide currents, longshore currents, and also artificial factors such as coastal structures, construction, and dredging.

Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed

Science.gov (United States)

John J. Lagrosa IV; Wayne C. Zipperer; Michael G. Andreu

2018-01-01

Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current...

Using Backcast Land-Use Change and Groundwater Travel-Time Models to Generate Land-Use Legacy Maps for Watershed Management

OpenAIRE

Bryan Pijanowski; Deepak K. Ray; Anthony D. Kendall; Jonah M. Duckles; David W. Hyndman

2007-01-01

We couple two spatial-temporal models, a backcast land-use change model and a groundwater flow model, to develop what we call "land-use legacy maps." We quantify how a land-use legacy map, created from maps of past land use and groundwater travel times, differs from a current land-use map. We show how these map differences can affect land-use planning and watershed management decisions at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Our approach demonstrates that land-use legacy maps provide a m...

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

Science.gov (United States)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series

Monitoring land use/land cover changes using CORINE land cover data: a case study of Silivri coastal zone in Metropolitan Istanbul.

Science.gov (United States)

Yilmaz, Rüya

2010-06-01

The objective of the present study was to assess changes in land use/land cover patterns in the coastal town of Silivri, a part of greater Istanbul administratively. In the assessment, remotely sensed data, in the form of satellite images, and geographic information systems were used. Types of land use/land cover were designated as the percentage of the total area studied. Results calculated from the satellite data for land cover classification were compared successfully with the database Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE). This served as a reference to appraise the reliability of the study presented here. The CORINE Program was established by the European Commission to create a harmonized Geographical Information System on the state of the environment in the European Community. Unplanned urbanization is causing land use changes mainly in developing countries such as Turkey. This situation in Turkey is frequently observed in the city of Istanbul. There are only a few studies of land use-land cover changes which provide an integrated assessment of the biophysical and societal causes and consequences of environmental degradation in Istanbul. The research area comprised greater Silivri Town which is situated by the coast of Marmara Sea, and it is located approximately 60 km west of Istanbul. The city of Istanbul is one of the largest metropolises in Europe with ca. 15 million inhabitants. Additionally, greater Silivri is located near the terminal point of the state highway connecting Istanbul with Europe. Measuring of changes occurring in land use would help control future planning of settlements; hence, it is of importance for the Greater Silivri and Silivri Town. Following our evaluations, coastal zone of Silivri was classified into the land use groups of artificial surfaces agricultural areas and forests and seminatural areas with 47.1%, 12.66%, and 22.62%, respectively.

Analyzing the Impacts of Land Use Land Change on Near Shore Coastal Habitat

Science.gov (United States)

Lehman, R. D.; Ta, E.; Boyle, C.; Alwood, B.

2017-12-01

The natural beauty of the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) has continued to attract visitors and residents, which overtime has increased human development and impact. The resulting land use change increases sediment loads and the flow of pollutants into surrounding nearshore environments such as coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds. Compounded with regional climate-related processes such as rising ocean temperatures and acidification, future land-use change poses a formidable threat to coral reefs and other susceptible marine environments. Without a healthy environment, the USVI economy also becomes endangered because it is mainly supported by tourism and recreation. Using Google Earth Engine, we created a tool to composite yearly Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS and Sentinel-2 MSI images identify changes from 1985 to present day. Using these land cover change maps we then analyzed trends at a watershed scale using hydrological data. We found there is a spatial relationship between development intensity and the health of coral reefs. Our work supports the existing knowledge of the link between land use and coastal ecosystem health.

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

Science.gov (United States)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of

The changing of land use and land management in Ignalina NPP region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milius, J.; Ribokas, G.

1998-01-01

The investigated locality (Ignalina NPP) represents territory of NPP and Visaginas town as well as agrarian territories of three former environs Dukshtas and Rimshe (Ignalina district) and Turmantas (Zarasai district). The changes of land, started with the beginning of construction works of NPP (1974) and are still taking place, are analyzed. The data on the land fund and current data of land reform agrarian services were used. The changes of the plots of farming lands in agrarian territories were preconditioned by the same factors which operated in other territories of hilly agrarian landscape. In the drained terrains the plots of farming lands increased, whereas, in other territories re naturalization processes set in resulting in the increase of the areas covered with forests and bushes which were not used for agricultural purposes. Thus, we may assert that the impact of the NPP itself on the change of the structure of farming lands in agrarian territories was minimal. It manifested not as a permanent process but as a spontaneous fact - a mechanical allotment of a plots of land for building the NPP and town itself. The comparison of the structure of farming lands at the moment of allotment with the data of 1995 revealed that during the mentioned period the farming land were completely destroyed (1003 ha of ploughed lands, 168 ha - grasslands, 180 ha - pastures). The forest area was reduced by 625 ha. The destroyed farming lands were occupied by territories under buildings (719 ha), artificial ground cover (159 ha), and high tension current lines (over 800 ha) which are absolutely unfit neither for agriculture nor forestry. Though the NPP and Visaginas town exerted no appreciable influence on the structure of farming lands in the surrounding territories they substantially changed the territory of NPP and Visaginas. The former wooded - agrarian landscape was replaced by an untypical for these places technical - urbanized landscape. This should be taken into

Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

2017-04-01

Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

Pairing FLUXNET sites to validate model representations of land-use/land-cover change

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Guo, Zhichang; Schultz, Natalie M.

2018-01-01

Land surface energy and water fluxes play an important role in land-atmosphere interactions, especially for the climatic feedback effects driven by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC). These have long been documented in model-based studies, but the performance of land surface models in representing LULCC-induced responses has not been investigated well. In this study, measurements from proximate paired (open versus forest) flux tower sites are used to represent observed deforestation-induced changes in surface fluxes, which are compared with simulations from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Noah Multi-Parameterization (Noah-MP) land model. Point-scale simulations suggest the CLM can represent the observed diurnal and seasonal changes in net radiation (Rnet) and ground heat flux (G), but difficulties remain in the energy partitioning between latent (LE) and sensible (H) heat flux. The CLM does not capture the observed decreased daytime LE, and overestimates the increased H during summer. These deficiencies are mainly associated with models' greater biases over forest land-cover types and the parameterization of soil evaporation. Global gridded simulations with the CLM show uncertainties in the estimation of LE and H at the grid level for regional and global simulations. Noah-MP exhibits a similar ability to simulate the surface flux changes, but with larger biases in H, G, and Rnet change during late winter and early spring, which are related to a deficiency in estimating albedo. Differences in meteorological conditions between paired sites is not a factor in these results. Attention needs to be devoted to improving the representation of surface heat flux processes in land models to increase confidence in LULCC simulations.

Impact of Land Use Land Cover Change on East Asian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.; Liu, Y.; Lee, J.

2017-12-01

Humans modify the Earth's terrestrial surface on a continental scale by removing natural vegetation for crops/grazing. The current rates, extents and intensities of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) are greater than ever in history. The earlier studies of Land-atmosphere interactions used specified land surface conditions without interannual variations. In this study using NCEP CFSv2 coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, biogeophysical impacts of LULCC on climate variability, anomaly, and changes are investigated by using the LULCC map from the Hurtt et al. (2006, 2011), which covered 66 years from 1950-2015 with annual variability. We combined the changes in crop and pasture fractions and consider as LULCC. A methodology had been developed to convert the Hurtt LULCC change map with 1° resolution to the GCM grid points. Since the GCM has only one dominant type, when the crop and pasture frction value at one point was larger than the critical value, that grid was assigned as degraded. Comprehensive evaluation was conducted to ensure the consistence of the trend of land degradation in the Hurtt's map and in the GCM LULCC map. In the degraded point, trees were changed to low vegetation or grasses, and low vegetation to bare soil. A set of surface parameters such as leaf area index, vegetation height, roughness length, and soil parameters, associated with vegetation are changed to show the degradation effects. We integrated the model with the potential vegetation map and the map with LULCC from 1950 to 2015, and the results indicate the LULCC causes precipitation reduction globally, with the strongest signals over monsoon regions. For instance, the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produced significant precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation anomalies. Meanwhile, it has also found that the LULCC enhances the surface warming during the summer in monsoon

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Land Use Land Cover Change Driven by Large Scale Land Transactions in Cambodia

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, A.; Smith, J. C.; Hijmans, R. J.

2017-12-01

Since mid-1990s, the Cambodian government granted nearly 300 `Economic Land Concessions' (ELCs), occupying approximately 2.3 million ha to foreign and domestic organizations (primarily agribusinesses). The majority of Cambodian ELC deals have been issued in areas of both relatively low population density and low agricultural productivity, dominated by smallholder production. These regions often contain highly biodiverse areas, thereby increasing the ecological cost associated with land clearing for extractive purposes. These large-scale land transactions have also resulted in substantial and rapid changes in land-use patterns and agriculture practices by smallholder farmers. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of land use change associated with large-scale land transactions across Cambodia using multi-temporal multi-reolution remote sensing data. We identified major regions of deforestation during the last two decades using Landsat archive, global forest change data (2000-2014) and georeferenced database of ELC deals. We then mapped the deforestation and land clearing within ELC boundaries as well as areas bordering or near ELCs to quantify the impact of ELCs on local communities. Using time-series from MODIS Vegetation Indices products for the study period, we also estimated the time period over which any particular ELC deal initiated its proposed activity. We found evidence of similar patterns of land use change outside the boundaries of ELC deals which may be associated with i) illegal land encroachments by ELCs and/or ii) new agricultural practices adopted by local farmers near ELC boundaries. We also detected significant time gaps between ELC deal granting dates and initiation of land clearing for ELC purposes. Interestingly, we also found that not all designated areas for ELCs were put into effect indicating the possible proliferation of speculative land deals. This study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing techniques

Fuzzy optimization model for land use change

OpenAIRE

L. Jahanshahloo; E. Haghi

2014-01-01

There are some important questions in Land use change literature, for instance How much land to allocate to each of a number of land use type in order to maximization of (household or individual) rent -paying ability, minimization of environmental impacts or maximization of population income. In this paper, we want to investigate them and propose mathematical models to find an answer for these questions. Since Most of the parameters in this process are linguistics and fuzzy logic is a powerfu...

Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seleshi G. Yalew

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Land-use and land-cover changes are driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at different scales. This study was aimed at identifying the potential land-use drivers in the Jedeb catchment of the Abbay basin by combining statistical analysis, field investigation and remote sensing. To do so, a land-use change model was calibrated and evaluated using the SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environment modelling framework. SITE is cellular automata based multi-criteria decision analysis framework for simulating land-use conversion based on socio-economic and environmental factors. Past land-use trajectories (1986–2009 were evaluated using a reference Landsat-derived map (agreement of 84%. Results show that major land-use change drivers in the study area were population, slope, livestock and distances from various infrastructures (roads, markets and water. It was also found that farmers seem to increasingly prefer plantations of trees such as Eucalyptus by replacing croplands perhaps mainly due to declining crop yield, soil fertility and climate variability. Potential future trajectory of land-use change was also predicted under a business-as-usual scenario (2009–2025. Results show that agricultural land will continue to expand from 69.5% in 2009 to 77.5% in 2025 in the catchment albeit at a declining rate when compared with the period from 1986 to 2009. Plantation forest will also increase at a much higher rate, mainly at the expense of natural vegetation, agricultural land and grasslands. This study provides critical information to land-use planners and policy makers for a more effective and proactive management in this highland catchment.

Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

1992-01-01

Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

Regional Climate Modeling and Remote Sensing to Characterize Impacts of Civil War Driven Land Use Change on Regional Hydrology and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

2016-12-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are extensive enough. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from an extended civil conflict in Mozambique. Civil war from 1977-1992 in Mozambique led to land use change at a regional scale as a result of the collapse of large herbivore populations due to poaching. Since the war ended, farming has increased, poaching was curtailed, and animal populations were reintroduced. In this study LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is classified at three instances between 1977 to 2015 using Landsat imagery. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from conflict-driven land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the civil war. Analysis of the Landsat data shows measurable land cover change from 1977-present as tree cover encroached into grasslands. Initial tests show corresponding sensitivities to different LULC schemes within the WRF model. Preliminary results suggest that the war did indeed impact regional hydroclimate in a significant way via its direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions. Results of this study suggest that LULC change arising from regional conflicts are a potentially understudied, yet important human process to capture in both regional reanalyses and climate change projections.

Impacts of land use change scenarios on hydrology and land use patterns in the Wu-Tu watershed in Northern Taiwan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lin Yu-Pin,; Hong Nien-Ming,; Wu Pei-Jung,; Wu Chen-Fa,; Verburg, P.H.

2007-01-01

Developing an approach for simulating and assessing land use changes and their effects on land use patterns and hydrological processes at the watershed level is essential in land use and water resource planning and management. This study provided a novel approach that combines a land use change

A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Reginster, I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

2006-01-01

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES......). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns...... are further downscaled from a resolution of 10 min to 250 m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most...

MONITORING SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES OF HEAT ISLAND IN BABOL CITY DUE TO LAND USE CHANGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. K. Alavi Panah

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Urban heat island is one of the most vital environmental risks in urban areas. The advent of remote sensing technology provides better visibility due to the integrated view, low-cost, fast and effective way to study and monitor environmental and humanistic changes. The aim of this study is a spatiotemporal evaluation of land use changes and the heat island in the time period of 1985-2015 for the studied area in the city of Babol. For this purpose, multi-temporal Landsat images were used in this study. For calculating the land surface temperature (LST, single-channel and maximum likelihood algorithms were used, to classify Images. Therefore, land use changes and LST were examined, and thereby the relationship between land-use changes was analyzed with the normalized LST. By using the average and standard deviation of normalized thermal images, the area was divided into five temperature categories, inter alia, very low, low, medium, high and very high and then, the heat island changes in the studied time period were investigated. The results indicate that land use changes for built-up lands increased by 92%, and a noticeable decrease was observed for agricultural lands. The Built-up land changes trend has direct relation with the trend of normalized surface temperature changes. Low and very low-temperature categories which follow a decreasing trend, are related to lands far away from the city. Also, high and very high-temperature categories whose areas increase annually, are adjacent to the city center and exit ways of the town. The results emphasize on the importance of attention of urban planners and managers to the urban heat island as an environmental risk.

Monitoring Spatiotemporal Changes of Heat Island in Babol City due to Land Use Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Alavi Panah, S. K.; Kiavarz Mogaddam, M.; Karimi Firozjaei, M.

2017-09-01

Urban heat island is one of the most vital environmental risks in urban areas. The advent of remote sensing technology provides better visibility due to the integrated view, low-cost, fast and effective way to study and monitor environmental and humanistic changes. The aim of this study is a spatiotemporal evaluation of land use changes and the heat island in the time period of 1985-2015 for the studied area in the city of Babol. For this purpose, multi-temporal Landsat images were used in this study. For calculating the land surface temperature (LST), single-channel and maximum likelihood algorithms were used, to classify Images. Therefore, land use changes and LST were examined, and thereby the relationship between land-use changes was analyzed with the normalized LST. By using the average and standard deviation of normalized thermal images, the area was divided into five temperature categories, inter alia, very low, low, medium, high and very high and then, the heat island changes in the studied time period were investigated. The results indicate that land use changes for built-up lands increased by 92%, and a noticeable decrease was observed for agricultural lands. The Built-up land changes trend has direct relation with the trend of normalized surface temperature changes. Low and very low-temperature categories which follow a decreasing trend, are related to lands far away from the city. Also, high and very high-temperature categories whose areas increase annually, are adjacent to the city center and exit ways of the town. The results emphasize on the importance of attention of urban planners and managers to the urban heat island as an environmental risk.

Land-use change and infectious disease in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, M. C.; Ericksen, P. J.; Mohamed, A. Ben; Connor, S. J.

Land-use change has been associated with changes in the dynamics of infectious disease in West Africa. Here we describe the complex interactions of land-use change with three diseases (both vector- and non-vector-borne) of considerable public health significance in this region, namely, malaria and irrigation; epidemic meningitis and land degradation; onchocerciasis and deforestation. We highlight the confounding effect of climate variability, which acts as a driver of both land-use change and human health. We conclude, as have others, that the scale of observation always matters, and complex and dynamic feedbacks among social-ecological systems are not easily teased apart. We suggest that in order to establish the causal chain of interactions between land-use change and human health outcomes two approaches are necessary. The first is to have a thorough understanding of the aetiology of disease and the specific mechanisms by which land-use and climate variability affect the transmission of pathogens. This is achieved by focused, detailed studies encompassing a wide range of potential drivers, which are inevitably small scale and often cover short time periods. The second consists of large-scale studies of statistical associations between transmission indices or health outcomes and environmental variables stratified by known ecological or socio-economic confounders, and sufficient in size to overcome local biases in results. Such research activities need to be designed to inform each other if we are to develop predictive models for monitoring these diseases and to develop integrated programs for human health and sustainable land use.

Carbon accounting and economic model uncertainty of emissions from biofuels-induced land use change.

Science.gov (United States)

Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'Hare, Michael

2015-03-03

Few of the numerous published studies of the emissions from biofuels-induced "indirect" land use change (ILUC) attempt to propagate and quantify uncertainty, and those that have done so have restricted their analysis to a portion of the modeling systems used. In this study, we pair a global, computable general equilibrium model with a model of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to quantify the parametric uncertainty in the paired modeling system's estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from ILUC induced by expanded production of three biofuels. We find that for the three fuel systems examined--US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, and US soybean biodiesel--95% of the results occurred within ±20 g CO2e MJ(-1) of the mean (coefficient of variation of 20-45%), with economic model parameters related to crop yield and the productivity of newly converted cropland (from forestry and pasture) contributing most of the variance in estimated ILUC emissions intensity. Although the experiments performed here allow us to characterize parametric uncertainty, changes to the model structure have the potential to shift the mean by tens of grams of CO2e per megajoule and further broaden distributions for ILUC emission intensities.

External Costs as Driving Forces of Land Use Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk Loehr

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Land conversion is often not carried out in a sustainable way. The loss of arable land and biodiversity, concern about food security and rising costs of infrastructure due to urban sprawl are just some of the problems under discussion. This paper compares Germany, China and Cambodia. The article points out that, despite huge differences in institutions and governance, unsustainable land use changes mostly have some patterns in common: The beneficiaries of land conversion are often well-organized actors, whereas the costs of land conversion are often shifted to poorly organized groups and to society as a whole. A sustainable land use policy has to look for a better coupling of benefits and costs of land use changes. In order to achieve this goal, the article suggests completing the planning law with a suitable economic framework.

The investigation of spatiotemporal variations of land surface temperature based on land use changes using NDVI in southwest of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Fathizad, Hassan; Tazeh, Mahdi; Kalantari, Saeideh; Shojaei, Saeed

2017-10-01

Land use changes can bring about changes in land surface temperature (LST) which is influenced by climatic conditions and physical characteristics of the land surface. In this study, spatiotemporal variations of land surface temperature have been investigated in the desert area of Dasht-e-Abbas, Ilam, based on a variety of land use changes. The investigated periods for the study include 1990, 2000 and 2010 using Landsat image data. First, in mapping land use we used the Fuzzy ARTMAP Neural Network Classification method followed by determination of the NDVI Index to estimate land surface temperature. The results show an increase in LST in areas where degradation, land use and land cover changes have occurred. In 1990, 2000 and 2010, the average land surface temperature of the Fair Rangelands was 26.72 °C, 30.06 °C and 30.95 °C, respectively. This rangeland has been reduced by about 5%. For poor rangelands, the average LSTs were 26.95, 32.83 and 34.49 Cº, respectively which had a 18% reduction. In 1990, 2000 and 2010, the average land surface temperatures of agricultural lands were 24.31 °C, 27.87 °C and 28.61 °C, respectively which has been an increasing trend. The reason can be attributed to changes in cropping patterns of the study area.

Implementing land use change models in the developing world

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Le Roux, Alize

2013-07-01

Full Text Available recently adapted land use change models (Dyna-Clue and UrbanSIM) that have been successfully adapted to simulate future land use change policies in the various metro's across South-Africa. The presentation will focus on how these technologies together...

Committed climate change due to historical land use and management: the concept

Science.gov (United States)

Freibauer, Annette; Dolman, Han; Don, Axel; Poeplau, Christopher

2013-04-01

A significant fraction of the European land surface has changed its land use over the last 50 years. Management practices have changed in the same period in most land use systems. These changes have affected the carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of the European land surface. Land use intensity, defined here loosely as the degree to which humans interfere with the land, strongly affects GHG emissions. Land use and land management changes suggest that the variability of the carbon balance and of GHG emissions of cultivated land areas in Europe is much more driven by land use history and management than driven by climate. Importantly changes in land use and its management have implications for future GHG emissions, and therefore present a committed climate change, defined as inevitable future additional climate change induced by past human activity. It is one of the key goals of the large-scale integrating research project "GHG-Europe - Greenhouse gas management in European land use systems" to quantify the committed climate change due to legacy effects by land use and management. The project is funded by the European Commission in the 7th framework programme (Grant agreement no.: 244122). This poster will present the conceptual approach taken to reach this goal. (1) First of all we need to proof that at site, or regional level the management effects are larger than climate effects on carbon balance and GHG emissions. Observations from managed sites and regions will serve as empirical basis. Attribution experiments with models based on process understanding are run on managed sites and regions will serve to demonstrate that the observed patterns of the carbon balance and GHG emissions can only be reproduced when land use and management are included as drivers. (2) The legacy of land use changes will be quantified by combining spatially explicit time series of land use changes with response functions of carbon pools. This will allow to separate short-term and

Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2015-01-01

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Yansui; Xing, Xiaoshi; de Sherbinin, Alex

2017-01-01

Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model. PMID:28134342

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements. Thinking outside the box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S.; Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research CIFOR, Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States); Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain)

2007-06-15

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benndorf, R. [Federal Environment Agency, Bismarckplatz 1, D-1419 Berlin (Germany); Federici, S. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Forner, C. [Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jalan CIFOR Situ Gede, Bogor Barat 16680 (Indonesia); Pena, N. [Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201 (United States)]. E-mail: penan@pewclimate.org; Rametsteiner, E. [IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Sanz, M.J. [Fundacion CEAM, Charles H. Darwin 14, S-46980 Paterna, Valencia (Spain); Somogyi, Z. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 1, I-21020 Ispra (Italy)

2007-06-15

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change.

Including land use, land-use change, and forestry in future climate change, agreements: thinking outside the box

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benndorf, R.; Federici, S.; Forner, C.; Pena, N.; Rametsteiner, E.; Sanz, M.J.; Somogyi, Z.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a framework that encompasses a full range of options for including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) within future agreements under the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The intent is to provide options that can address the broad range of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals as well as to bring the broadest possible range of nations into undertaking mitigation efforts. We suggest that the approach taken for the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period is only one within a much larger universe of possible approaches. This larger universe includes partially or completely 'de-linking' LULUCF commitments from those in other sectors, and allowing commitments specified in terms other than tonnes of greenhouse gases. Such approaches may provide clarity and transparency concerning the role of the various sectors in the agreements and encourage participation in agreements by a more inclusive, diverse set of countries, resulting in a more effective use of LULUCF in addressing climate change

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

Direct and indirect effects of land use on floral resources and flower-visiting insects across an urban landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Matteson, K.C.; Grace, James B.; Minor, E.S.

2013-01-01

Although urban areas are often considered to have uniformly negative effects on biodiversity, cities are most accurately characterized as heterogeneous mosaics of buildings, streets, parks, and gardens that include both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ areas for wildlife. However, to date, few studies have evaluated how human impacts vary in direction and magnitude across a heterogeneous urban landscape. In this study, we assessed the distribution of floral resources and flower-visiting insects across a variety of land uses in New York City. We visited both green spaces (e.g. parks, cemeteries) and heavily developed neighborhood blocks (e.g. with high or low density residential zoning) and used structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of median income, vegetation, and development intensity on floral resources and insects in both settings. Abundance and taxonomic richness of flower-visiting insects was significantly greater in green spaces than neighborhood blocks. The SEM results indicated that heavily-developed neighborhoods generally had fewer flower-visiting insects consistent with reductions in floral resources. However, some low-density residential neighborhoods maintained high levels of floral resources and flower-visiting insects. We found that the effects of surrounding vegetation on floral resources, and thus indirect effects on insects, varied considerably between green spaces and neighborhood blocks. Along neighborhood blocks, vegetation consisted of a mosaic of open gardens and sparsely distributed trees and had a positive indirect effect on flower-visiting insects. In contrast, vegetation in urban green spaces was associated with increased canopy cover and thus had a negative indirect effect on flower-visiting insects through reductions in floral resources. In both neighborhood blocks and green spaces, vegetation had a positive direct effect on flower-visiting insects independent of the influence of vegetation on floral

Changes in land use and housing on resource lands in Washington state, 1976–2006

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew N. Gray; David L. Azuma; Gary J. Lettman; Joel L. Thompson; Neil McKay

2013-01-01

Changes in human land use patterns have wide-ranging social, economic and ecological implications. How urban and residential areas develop to accommodate population increase can have varying effects on forest and agricultural production from resource lands. Estimates of the amount and type of land use change differ substantially with definitions and analytical methods...

Climate and land-use change in wetlands: A dedication

Science.gov (United States)

Middleton, Beth A.

2017-01-01

Future climate and land-use change may wreak havoc on wetlands, with the potential to erode their values as harbors for biota and providers of human services. Wetlands are important to protect, particularly because these provide a variety of ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, water purification, flood storage, and storm protection (Mitsch, Bernal, and Hernandez 2015). Without healthy wetlands, future generations may become increasingly less in harmony with the sustainability of the Earth. To this end, the thematic feature on climate and land-use change in wetlands explores the critical role of wetlands in the overall health and well-being of humans and our planet. Our special feature contributes to the understanding of the idea that the health of natural ecosystems and humans are linked and potentially stressed by climate change and land-use change (Horton and Lo 2015; McDonald 2015). In particular, this special issue considers the important role of wetlands in the environment, and how land-use and environmental change might affect them in the future.

The effects of land use change and precipitation change on direct runoff in Wei River watershed, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Leihua; Xiong, Lihua; Lall, Upmanu; Wang, Jiwu

2015-01-01

The principles and degrees to which land use change and climate change affect direct runoff generation are distinctive. In this paper, based on the MODIS data of land use in 1992 and 2003, the impacts of land use and climate change are explored using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method under two defined scenarios. In the first scenario, the precipitation is assumed to be constant, and thus the consequence of land use change could be evaluated. In the second scenario, the condition of land use is assumed to be constant, so the influence only induced by climate change could be assessed. Combining the conclusions of two scenarios, the effects of land use and climate change on direct runoff volume can be separated. At last, it is concluded: for the study basin, the land use types which have the greatest effect on direct runoff generation are agricultural land and water body. For the big sub basins, the effect of land use change is generally larger than that of climate change; for middle and small sub basins, most of them suffer more from land use change than from climate change.

Land and Forest Management by Land Use/ Land Cover Analysis and Change Detection Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ankana

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS are the most effective tools in spatial data analysis. Natural resources like land, forest and water, these techniques have proved a valuable source of information generation as well as in the management and planning purposes. This study aims to suggest possible land and forest management strategies in Chakia tahsil based on land use and land cover analysis and the changing pattern observed during the last ten years. The population of Chakia tahsil is mainly rural in nature. The study has revealed that the northern part of the region, which offers for the settlement and all the agricultural practices constitutes nearly 23.48% and is a dead level plain, whereas the southern part, which constitute nearly 76.6% of the region is characterized by plateau and is covered with forest. The southern plateau rises abruptly from the northern alluvial plain with a number of escarpments. The contour line of 100 m mainly demarcates the boundary between plateau and plain. The plateau zone is deeply dissected and highly rugged terrain. The resultant topography comprises of a number of mesas and isolated hillocks showing elevation differences from 150 m to 385 m above mean sea level. Being rugged terrain in the southern part, nowadays human encroachment are taking place for more land for the cultivation. The changes were well observed in the land use and land cover in the study region. A large part of fallow land and open forest were converted into cultivated land.

Estimating of the impact of land use changes using the conceptual hydrological model THESEUS??a case study

Science.gov (United States)

Wegehenkel, Martin

As a result of a new agricultural funding policy established in 1992 by the European Community, it was assumed that up to 15-20% of arable land would have been set aside in the next years in the new federal states of north-eastern Germany, for example, Brandenburg. As one potential land use option, afforestation of these set aside areas was discussed to obtain deciduous forests. Since the mean annual precipitation in north-eastern Germany, Brandenburg is relatively low (480-530 mm y -1), an increase in interception and evapotranspiration loss by forests compared to arable land would lead to a reduction in ground water recharge. Experimental evidence to determine effects of such land use changes are rarely available. Therefore, there is a need for indirect methods to estimate the impact of afforestation on the water balance of catchments. In this paper, a conceptual hydrological model was verified and calibrated in two steps using data from the Stobber-catchment located in Brandenburg. In the first step, model outputs like daily evapotranspiration rates and soil water contents were verified on the basis of experimental data sets from two test locations. One test site with the land use arable land was located within the Stobber-catchment. The other test site with pine forest was located near by the catchment. In the second step, the model was used to estimate the impact of afforestation on catchment water balance and discharge. For that purpose, the model was calibrated against daily discharge measurements for the period 1995-1997. For a simple afforestation scenario, it was assumed that the area of forest increases from 34% up to 80% of the catchment area. The impact of this change in forest cover proportion was analyzed using the calibrated model. In case of increasing the proportion of forest cover in the catchment due to the scenario afforestation, the model predicts a reduction in discharge and an increase in evapotranspiration.

An analysis of effect of land use change on river flow variability

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tao; Liu, Yuting; Yang, Xinyue; Wang, Xiang

2018-02-01

Land use scenario analysis, SWAT model, flow characteristic indices and flow variability technology were used to analyze the effect of land use quantity and location change on river flow. Results showed that river flow variation caused by land use change from forest to crop was larger than that caused by land use change from forest to grass; Land use change neither from upstream to downstream nor from downstream to upstream had little effect on annual average discharge and maximum annual average discharge. But it had obvious effect on maximum daily discharge; Land use change which occurred in upstream could lead to producing larger magnitude flood more easily; Land use change from forest to crop or grass could increase the number of large magnitude floods and their total duration. And it also could increase the number of small magnitude floods but decrease their duration.

Leveling the playing field of transportation fuels: Accounting for indirect emissions of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sexton, Steven; Eyer, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Natural gas transportation fuels are credited in prior studies with greenhouse gas emissions savings relative to petroleum-based fuels and relative to the total emissions of biofuels. These analyses, however, overlook a source of potentially large indirect emissions from natural gas transportation fuels, namely the emissions from incremental coal-fired generation caused by price-induced substitutions away from natural-gas-fired electricity generation. Because coal-fired generation emits substantially more greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutants than natural-gas-fired generation, this indirect coal-use change effect diminishes potential emissions savings from natural gas transportation fuels. Estimates from a parameterized multi-market model suggest the indirect coal-use change effect rivals in magnitude the indirect land-use change effect of biofuels and renders natural gas fuels as carbon intensive as petroleum fuels. - Highlights: •Natural gas used in transport causes indirect emissions in the electricity sector. •These emissions result from increased coal use in electricity generation. •They rival in magnitude indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions of biofuels. •Natural gas fuels are estimated to be as carbon intensive as the petroleum fuels. •Policy ignores indirect emissions from natural gas.

Land use change in China: implication for human-environmental interactions

Science.gov (United States)

cui, Xuefeng

2013-04-01

China's land use has undergone significant changes in history due to the continuous transformations caused by natural and human factors. This paper will review the history of land use changes in China during the past 300 years to identify the major transition periods and discuss the implications for environmental management. Population changes are found to be the primary driving factor in cropland expansion and deforestation in history for a long period. In 1950s, after the foundation of the Republic of China, all land use types experience a huge transition showing the determination of socio-economic policies in modern time after agricultural intensifications. Several current environmental policy in China will also be discussed to explore the effect of policy on land use changes.

Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. H. C. Bosmans

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

Land use changes and plantation crop development in selected provinces in Sumatra and Kalimantan

Science.gov (United States)

Tarigan, S. D.

2018-05-01

Most institutions stated that biofuel will not qualify the standard of GHG emission reduction if it was produced in the plantation associated with the forest conversion. Therefore, knowing previous land use before the development of plantation is very important. In Indonesia, plantation development occurs mainly in Sumatra and Kalimantan. A number of studies had been published showing historical LUCC before plantation development. Objective of this study was to review various studies on LUCC carried out in four selected provinces, namely West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, and Riau. The analysis and comparison was based on the different source of historical data including online spatial data sources and various studies published in various journals. Each data source of LUCC shows significant variation on the amount of plantation developed directly from forest and other land use types. But, our review showed that the plantation areas associated with the forest cover changes far less than those claimed by several international journals. But, the debate concerning which plantation developments indirectly contributed to LUCC and which are directly will probably continue until the information on the land ownership and history of plantation development is available publicly.

Effects of oil palm expansion through direct and indirect land use change in Tapi river basin, Thailand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saswattecha, Kanokwan; Hein, Lars; Kroeze, Carolien; Jawjit, Warit

2016-01-01

The Thai government has ambitious plan to further promote the use of biodiesel. However, there has been insufficient consideration on the environmental effects of oil palm expansion in Thailand. This paper focuses on the effects of oil palm expansion on land use. We analysed the direct land use

Methods for Attributing Land-Use Emissions to Products

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, S. J.; Burney, J. A.; Pongratz, J.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

Roughly one-third of anthropogenic GHG emissions are caused by agricultural and forestry activities and land-use change (collectively, 'land-use emissions'). Understanding the ultimate drivers of these emissions requires attributing emissions to specific land-use activities and products. Although quantities of land-use emissions are matters of fact, the methodological choices and assumptions required to attribute those emissions to activities and products depend on research goals and data availability. We will demonstrate several possible accounting methods, highlighting the sensitivity of accounting to temporal distributions of emissions and the consequences of replacing spatially-explicit data with aggregate proxies such as production or harvested area data. Different accounting options emphasize different causes of land-use emissions (e.g., proximate or indirect drivers of deforestation). To support public policies that effectively balance competing objectives, analysts should carefully consider and communicate implications of accounting choices.

Theorizing Land Cover and Land Use Changes: The Case of Tropical Deforestation

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Robert

2004-01-01

This article addresses land-cover and land-use dynamics from the perspective of regional science and economic geography. It first provides an account of the so-called spatially explicit model, which has emerged in recent years as a key empirical approach to the issue. The article uses this discussion as a springboard to evaluate the potential utility of von Thuenen to the discourse on land-cover and land-use change. After identifying shortcomings of current theoretical approaches to land use in mainly urban models, the article filters a discussion of deforestation through the lens of bid-rent and assesses its effectiveness in helping us comprehend the destruction of tropical forest in the Amazon basin. The article considers the adjustments that would have to be made to existing theory to make it more useful to the empirical issues.

Land change monitoring, assessment, and projection (LCMAP) revolutionizes land cover and land change research

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Steven

2017-05-02

When nature and humanity change Earth’s landscapes - through flood or fire, public policy, natural resources management, or economic development - the results are often dramatic and lasting.Wildfires can reshape ecosystems. Hurricanes with names like Sandy or Katrina will howl for days while altering the landscape for years. One growing season in the evolution of drought-resistant genetics can transform semiarid landscapes into farm fields.In the past, valuable land cover maps created for understanding the effects of those events - whether changes in wildlife habitat, water-quality impacts, or the role land use and land cover play in affecting weather and climate - came out at best every 5 to 7 years. Those high quality, high resolution maps were good, but users always craved more: even higher quality data, additional land cover and land change variables, more detailed legends, and most importantly, more frequent land change information.Now a bold new initiative called Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) promises to fulfill that demand.Developed at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, LCMAP provides definitive, timely information on how, why, and where the planet is changing. LCMAP’s continuous monitoring process can detect changes as they happen every day that Landsat satellites acquire clear observations. The result will be to place near real-time information in the hands of land and resource managers who need to understand the effects these changes have on landscapes.

Drivers and Implications of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study explores the major drivers of Land-use/Land-cover (LULC) dynamics and the observed environmental degradation as a response to these changes in the Modjo watershed, central Ethiopia. Data for this study were generated through household survey and supplemented with remotely sensed image interpretation ...

Hydrological impacts of land use change in three diverse South African catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Warburton, Michele L.; Schulze, Roland E.; Jewitt, Graham P. W.

2012-01-01

SummaryIn order to meet society's needs for water, food, fuel and fibre, the earth's natural land cover and land use have been significantly changed. These changes have impacted on the hydrological responses and thus available water resources, as the hydrological responses of a catchment are dependent upon, and sensitive to, changes in the land use. The degree of anthropogenic modification of the land cover, the intensity of the land use changes and location of land uses within a catchment determines the extent to which land uses influences hydrological response of a catchment. The objective of the study was to improve understanding of the complex interactions between hydrological response and land use to aid in water resources planning. To achieve this, a hydrological model, viz. the ACRU agrohydrological model, which adequately represents hydrological processes and is sensitive to land use changes, was used to generate hydrological responses from three diverse, complex and operational South African catchments under both current land use and a baseline land cover. The selected catchments vary with respect to both land use and climate. The semi-arid sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas, whereas in the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment the primary land uses are commercial orchards and vineyards. The sub-humid Mgeni catchment is dominated by commercial plantation forestry in the upper reaches, commercial sugarcane and urban areas in the middle reaches, with the lower reaches dominated by urban areas. The hydrological responses of the selected catchments to land use change were complex. Results showed that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment is not proportional to the relative area of that land use, and the relative contribution of the land use to the catchment streamflow varies with the mean annual rainfall of the catchment. Furthermore

Emissions of carbon from land use change in sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Houghton, R. A.; Hackler, J. L.

2006-06-01

Previous estimates of the flux of carbon from land use change in sub-Saharan Africa have been based on highly aggregated data and have ignored important categories of land use. To improve these estimates, we divided the region into four subregions (east, west, central, and southern Africa), each with six types of natural vegetation and five types of land use (permanent crops, pastures, shifting cultivation, industrial wood harvest, and tree plantations). We reconstructed rates of land use change and rates of wood harvest from country-level statistics reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (1961-2000) and extrapolated the rates from 1961 to 1850 on the basis of qualitative histories of demography, economy, and land use. We used a bookkeeping model to calculate the annual flux of carbon associated with these changes in land use. Country-level estimates of average forest biomass from the FAO, together with changes in biomass calculated from the reconstructed rates of land use change, constrained the average biomass of forests in 1850. Comparison of potential (predisturbance) forest areas with the areas present in 1850 and 2000 suggests that 60% of Africa's forests were lost before 1850 and an additional 10% lost in the last 150 years. The annual net flux of carbon from changes in land use was probably small and variable before the early 1900s but increased to a source of 0.3 ± 0.2 PgC/yr by the end of the century. In the 1990s the source was equivalent to about 15% of the global net flux of carbon from land use change.

Agricultural Land-Use Change and Disappearance of Farmlands

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The concept of land-use and land-cover change is as old as the town itself. .... Therefore, the impact of such urban growth and human activities would be ..... of Human Settlements. (CityNet) and the Association of Food Marketing Agencies.

Land use and land use change effects on nitrous oxide emissions in the seasonally dry ecosystems of Zimbabwe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nyamadzawo, G; Chirinda, Ngoni; Mapanda, F

2012-01-01

. The savanna woodlands cover over 95% of Zimbabwe’s forest area, and are divided into five woodland types: Acacia, miombo, mopane, teak (Baikiaea Plurijuga) and Terminalia-Combretaceae. This review is aimed at exploring the effects of land-use changes and land management practices on N2O emissions in Zimbabwe...... emissions were mainly concentrated in the wet season as N2O production is strongly enhanced by high soil moisture. During the dry season pyrogenic emissions were also important sources of N2O, contributing, an estimated 6.7 Gg N2O annually. Land use change in the form of biomass burning and conversion...... of emissions of N2O. Land-use change from savanna to agricultural production results in an immediate increase in N2O emissions. However, the emissions will decrease with time. The current estimates are associated with large uncertainties, thus, there is need for more detailed studies on the effects of land-use...

Anthropogenic Influences in Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Mediterranean Forest Landscapes in Sicily

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Donato S. La Mela Veca

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes and quantifies the land use/land cover changes of the main forest and semi-natural landscape types in Sicily between 1955 and 2012. We analyzed seven representative forest and shrubland landscapes in Sicily. These study areas were chosen for their importance in the Sicilian forest panorama. We carried out a diachronic survey on historical and current aerial photos; all the aerial images used to survey the land use/land cover changes were digitalized and georeferenced in the UTM WGS84 system. In order to classify land use, the Regional Forest Inventory 2010 legend was adopted for the more recent images, and the CORINE Land Cover III level used for the older, lower resolution images. This study quantifies forest landscape dynamics; our results show for almost all study areas an increase of forest cover and expansion, whereas a regressive dynamic is found in rural areas due to intensive agricultural and pasturage uses. Understanding the dynamics of forest landscapes could enhance the role of forestry policy as a tool for landscape management and regional planning.

Exploring dust emission responses to land cover change using an ecological land classification

Science.gov (United States)

Galloza, Magda S.; Webb, Nicholas P.; Bleiweiss, Max P.; Winters, Craig; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Ayers, Eldon

2018-06-01

Despite efforts to quantify the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion, assessment uncertainty remains large. We address this uncertainty by evaluating the application of ecological site concepts and state-and-transition models (STMs) for detecting and quantitatively describing the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion. We apply a dust emission model over a rangeland study area in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, New Mexico, USA, and evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of modelled horizontal sediment mass flux and dust emission in the context of ecological sites and their vegetation states; representing a diversity of land cover types. Our results demonstrate how the impacts of land cover change on dust emission can be quantified, compared across land cover classes, and interpreted in the context of an ecological model that encapsulates land management intensity and change. Results also reveal the importance of established weaknesses in the dust model soil characterisation and drag partition scheme, which appeared generally insensitive to the impacts of land cover change. New models that address these weaknesses, coupled with ecological site concepts and field measurements across land cover types, could significantly reduce assessment uncertainties and provide opportunities for identifying land management options.

Spatial and temporal land cover changes in Terminos Lagoon Reserve, Mexico.

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Soto-Galera, Ernesto; Piera, Jaume; López, Pilar

2010-06-01

Terminos Lagoon ecosystem is the largest fluvial-lagoon estuarine system in the country and one of the most important reserves of coastal flora and fauna in Mexico. Since the seventies, part of the main infrastructure for country's oil extraction is located in this area. Its high biodiversity has motivated different type of studies including deforestation processes and land use planning. In this work we used satellite image analysis to determine land cover changes in the area from 1974 to 2001. Our results indicate that tropical forest and mangroves presented the most extensive losses in its coverage. In contrast, urban areas and induced grassland increased considerably. In 2001 more than half of the ecosystem area showed changes from its original land cover, and a third part of it was deteriorated. The main causes of deforestation were both the increase in grassland and the growth of urban areas. However, deforestation was attenuated by natural reforestation and plant canopy recovery. We conclude that the introduction of cattle and urban development were the main causes for the land cover changes; however, the oil industry activity located in the ecosystem, has promoted indirectly to urban growth and rancher boom.

Remote Sensing Time Series to Evaluate Direct Land Use Change of Recent Expanded Sugarcane Crop in Brazil

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Marcio Pupin Mello

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The use of biofuels to mitigate global carbon emissions is highly dependent on direct and indirect land use changes (LUC. The direct LUC (dLUC can be accurately evaluated using remote sensing images. In this work we evaluated the dLUC of about 4 million hectares of sugarcane expanded from 2005 to 2010 in the South-central region of Brazil. This region has a favorable climate for rain-fed sugarcane, a great potential for agriculture expansion without deforestation, and is currently responsible for almost 90% of Brazilian’s sugarcane production. An available thematic map of sugarcane along with MODIS and Landast images, acquired from 2000 to 2009, were used to evaluate the land use prior to the conversion to sugarcane. A systematic sampling procedure was adopted and the land use identification prior to sugarcane, for each sample, was performed using a web tool developed to visualize both the MODIS time series and the multitemporal Landsat images. Considering 2000 as reference year, it was observed that sugarcane expanded: 69.7% on pasture land; 25.0% on annual crops; 0.6% on forest; while 3.4% was sugarcane land under crop rotation. The results clearly show that the dLUC of recent sugarcane expansion has occurred on more than 99% of either pasture or agriculture land.

Spatiotemporal Land Use Change Analysis Using Open-source GIS and Web Based Application

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Wan Yusryzal Wan Ibrahim

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Spatiotemporal changes are very important information to reveal the characteristics of the urbanization process. Sharing the information is beneficial for public awareness which then improves their participation in adaptive management for spatial planning process. Open-source software and web application are freely available tools that can be the best medium used by any individual or agencies to share this important information. The objective of the paper is to discuss on the spatiotemporal land use change in Iskandar Malaysia by using open-source GIS (Quantum GIS and publish them through web application (Mash-up. Land use in 1994 to 2011 were developed and analyzed to show the landscape change of the region. Subsequently, web application was setup to distribute the findings of the study. The result show there is significant changes of land use in the study area especially on the decline of agricultural and natural land which were converted to urban land uses. Residential and industrial areas largely replaced the agriculture and natural areas particularly along the coastal zone of the region. This information is published through interactive GIS web in order to share it with the public and stakeholders. There are some limitations of web application but still not hindering the advantages of using it. The integration of open-source GIS and web application is very helpful in sharing planning information particularly in the study area that experiences rapid land use and land cover change. Basic information from this study is vital for conducting further study such as projecting future land use change and other related studies in the area.

Measuring land-use and land-cover change using the U.S. department of agriculture's cropland data layer: Cautions and recommendations

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Lark, Tyler J.; Mueller, Richard M.; Johnson, David M.; Gibbs, Holly K.

2017-10-01

Monitoring agricultural land is important for understanding and managing food production, environmental conservation efforts, and climate change. The United States Department of Agriculture's Cropland Data Layer (CDL), an annual satellite imagery-derived land cover map, has been increasingly used for this application since complete coverage of the conterminous United States became available in 2008. However, the CDL is designed and produced with the intent of mapping annual land cover rather than tracking changes over time, and as a result certain precautions are needed in multi-year change analyses to minimize error and misapplication. We highlight scenarios that require special considerations, suggest solutions to key challenges, and propose a set of recommended good practices and general guidelines for CDL-based land change estimation. We also characterize a problematic issue of crop area underestimation bias within the CDL that needs to be accounted for and corrected when calculating changes to crop and cropland areas. When used appropriately and in conjunction with related information, the CDL is a valuable and effective tool for detecting diverse trends in agriculture. By explicitly discussing the methods and techniques for post-classification measurement of land-cover and land-use change using the CDL, we aim to further stimulate the discourse and continued development of suitable methodologies. Recommendations generated here are intended specifically for the CDL but may be broadly applicable to additional remotely-sensed land cover datasets including the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land cover products, and other regional, national, and global land cover classification maps.

CHANGE DETECTION IN LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER DYNAMICS AT A REGIONAL SCALE FROM MODIS TIME-SERIES IMAGERY

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Y. Setiawan

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Remote sensing has long been used as a means of detecting and classifying changes on the land. Analysis of multi-year time series of land surface attributes and their seasonal change indicates a complexity of land use land cover change (LULCC. This paper explores the temporal complexity of land change considering temporal vegetation dynamics, in other words, distinguishing the changes regarding to their properties in long-term image analysis. This study is based on the hypothesis that land cover might be dynamics; however, consistent land use has a typical, distinct and repeated temporal pattern of vegetation index inter-annually. Therefore, pixels represent a change when the inter-annual temporal dynamics is changed. We analysed the dynamics pattern of long-term image data of wavelet-filtered MODIS EVI from 2001 to 2007. The change of temporal vegetation dynamics was detected by differentiating distance between two successive annual EVI patterns. Moreover, we defined the type of changes using the clustering method, which were then validated by ground check points and secondary data sets.

Land-Cover Change Detection Using Multi-Temporal MODIS NDVI Imagery

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Monitoring the locations and distributions of land-cover change is important for establishing linkages between policy decisions, regulatory actions and subsequent land-use activities. Past studies incorporating two-date change detection using Landsat data have tended to be perfor...

Spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon.

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Lu, Dengsheng; Li, Guiying; Moran, Emilio; Hetrick, Scott

2013-01-01

This paper provides a comparative analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) changes among three study areas with different biophysical environments in the Brazilian Amazon at multiple scales, from per-pixel, polygon, census sector, to study area. Landsat images acquired in the years of 1990/1991, 1999/2000, and 2008/2010 were used to examine LULC change trajectories with the post-classification comparison approach. A classification system composed of six classes - forest, savanna, other-vegetation (secondary succession and plantations), agro-pasture, impervious surface, and water, was designed for this study. A hierarchical-based classification method was used to classify Landsat images into thematic maps. This research shows different spatiotemporal change patterns, composition and rates among the three study areas and indicates the importance of analyzing LULC change at multiple scales. The LULC change analysis over time for entire study areas provides an overall picture of change trends, but detailed change trajectories and their spatial distributions can be better examined at a per-pixel scale. The LULC change at the polygon scale provides the information of the changes in patch sizes over time, while the LULC change at census sector scale gives new insights on how human-induced activities (e.g., urban expansion, roads, and land use history) affect LULC change patterns and rates. This research indicates the necessity to implement change detection at multiple scales for better understanding the mechanisms of LULC change patterns and rates.

A Framework for the Land Use Change Dynamics Model Compatible with RCMs

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Xiangzheng Deng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A framework of land use change dynamics (LUCD model compatible with regional climate models (RCMs is introduced in this paper. The LUCD model can be subdivided into three modules, namely, economic module, vegetation change module, and agent-based module. The economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use changes in economic activities maximizing economic utility. A computable general equilibrium (CGE modeling framework is introduced and an approach to introduce land as a production factor into the economic module is proposed. The vegetation change module provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The agroecological zone (AEZ model is supposed to be the optimal option for constructing the vegetation change module. The agent-based module identifies whether the land use change demand and vegetation change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results which are the underlying surfaces needed by RCM. By importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be compatible with RCMs. The coupled simulation system composed of LUCD and RCMs can be very effective in simulating the land surface processes and their changing patterns.

Temporal dynamics of land use/land cover change and its prediction using CA-ANN model for southwestern coastal Bangladesh.

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Rahman, M Tauhid Ur; Tabassum, Faheemah; Rasheduzzaman, Md; Saba, Humayra; Sarkar, Lina; Ferdous, Jannatul; Uddin, Syed Zia; Zahedul Islam, A Z M

2017-10-17

Change analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) is a technique to study the environmental degradation and to control the unplanned development. Analysis of the past changing trend of LULC along with modeling future LULC provides a combined opportunity to evaluate and guide the present and future land use policy. The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh, especially Assasuni Upazila of Satkhira District, is the most vulnerable to natural disasters and has faced notable changes in its LULC due to the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic causes. The objectives of this study are to illustrate the temporal dynamics of LULC change in Assasuni Upazila over the last 27 years (i.e., between 1989 and 2015) and also to predict future land use change using CA-ANN (cellular automata and artificial neural network) model for the year 2028. Temporal dynamics of LULC change was analyzed, employing supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images. Then, prediction of future LULC was carried out by CA-ANN model using MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS. The analysis of LULC change revealed that the LULC of Assasuni had changed notably during 1989 to 2015. "Bare lands" decreased by 21% being occupied by other land uses, especially by "shrimp farms." Shrimp farm area increased by 25.9% during this period, indicating a major occupational transformation from agriculture to shrimp aquaculture in the study area during the period under study. Reduction in "settlement" area revealed the trend of migration from the Upazila. The predicted LULC for the year 2028 showed that reduction in bare land area would continue and 1595.97 ha bare land would transform into shrimp farm during 2015 to 2028. Also, the impacts of the changing LULC on the livelihood of local people and migration status of the Upazila were analyzed from the data collected through focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys. The analysis revealed that the changing LULC and the occupational shift from paddy

Land Use Land Cover Change in the fringe of eThekwini ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Concerns on urban environmental quality, increasing knowledge on impacts of climate change and pursuit for sustainable development have increased the need for past, current and future knowledge on the transformation of remnant urban fringe green ecosystems. Using land-cover change modeler and a Markov chain ...

Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

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Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

2015-04-01

In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

Response of atmospheric CO2 to changes in land use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, A.W.; Emanuel, W.R.; Post, W.M.

1991-01-01

This chapter examines how different histories of CO 2 release from past changes in land use influence the simulation of past and future changes in atmospheric CO 2 . The authors first simulate past change in atmospheric CO 2 using reconstructed histories of land-use CO 2 release from a historical-ecological model of land-use change and CO 2 release. They examine the impact of each history on the coincidence between simulated and observed atmospheric CO 2 . They then compare these CO 2 release histories, and their contribution to coincidence or noncoincidence of simulation and observation, with histories reconstructed by deconvolution of the atmospheric CO 2 record. They conclude by exploring the implications of these deconvolved reconstructions for the simulation of future changes in atmospheric CO 2

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

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Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Land use mapping and change detection using ERTS imagery in Montgomery County, Alabama

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Wilms, R. P.

1973-01-01

The feasibility of using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1 for mapping land use and detecting land use change was investigated. Land use information was gathered from 1964 air photo mosaics and from 1972 ERTS data. The 1964 data provided the basis for comparison with ERTS-1 imagery. From this comparison, urban sprawl was quite evident for the city of Montgomery. A significant trend from forestland to agricultural was also discovered. The development of main traffic arteries between 1964 and 1972 was a vital factor in the development of some of the urban centers. Even though certain problems in interpreting and correlating land use data from ERTS imagery were encountered, it has been demonstrated that remotely sensed data from ERTS is useful for inventorying land use and detecting land use change.

Towards monitoring land-cover and land-use changes at a global scale: the global land survey 2005

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Gutman, G.; Byrnes, Raymond A.; Masek, J.; Covington, S.; Justice, C.; Franks, S.; Headley, Rachel

2008-01-01

Land cover is a critical component of the Earth system, infl uencing land-atmosphere interactions, greenhouse gas fl uxes, ecosystem health, and availability of food, fi ber, and energy for human populations. The recent Integrated Global Observations of Land (IGOL) report calls for the generation of maps documenting global land cover at resolutions between 10m and 30m at least every fi ve years (Townshend et al., in press). Moreover, despite 35 years of Landsat observations, there has not been a unifi ed global analysis of land-cover trends nor has there been a global assessment of land-cover change at Landsat-like resolution. Since the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have supported development of data sets based on global Landsat observations (Tucker et al., 2004). These land survey data sets, usually referred to as GeoCover ™, provide global, orthorectifi ed, typically cloud-free Landsat imagery centered on the years 1975, 1990, and 2000, with a preference for leaf-on conditions. Collectively, these data sets provided a consistent set of observations to assess land-cover changes at a decadal scale. These data are freely available via the Internet from the USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) (see http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov or http://glovis.usgs.gov). This has resulted in unprecedented downloads of data, which are widely used in scientifi c studies of land-cover change (e.g., Boone et al., 2007; Harris et al., 2005; Hilbert, 2006; Huang et al. 2007; Jantz et al., 2005, Kim et al., 2007; Leimgruber, 2005; Masek et al., 2006). NASA and USGS are continuing to support land-cover change research through the development of GLS2005 - an additional global Landsat assessment circa 20051 . Going beyond the earlier initiatives, this data set will establish a baseline for monitoring changes on a 5-year interval and will pave the way toward continuous global land

Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

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Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

2009-04-01

Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

Evaluating Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Resources in Semiarid Regions

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Scanlon, B. R.; Faunt, C. C.; Pool, D. R.; Reedy, R. C.

2017-12-01

Land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes play an integral role in water resources by controlling the partitioning of water at the land surface. Here we evaluate impacts of changing LU/LC on water resources in response to climate variation and change and land use change related to agriculture using data from semiarid regions in the southwestern U.S. Land cover changes in response to climate can amplify or dampen climate impacts on water resources. Changes from wet Pleistocene to much drier Holocene climate resulted in expansion of perennial vegetation, amplifying climate change impacts on water resources by reducing groundwater recharge as shown in soil profiles in the southwestern U.S.. In contrast, vegetation response to climate extremes, including droughts and floods, dampen impacts of these extremes on water resources, as shown by water budget monitoring in the Mojave Desert. Agriculture often involves changes from native perennial vegetation to annual crops increasing groundwater recharge in many semiarid regions. Irrigation based on conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater increases water resource availability, as shown in the Central Valley of California and in southern Arizona. Surface water irrigation in these regions is enhanced by water transported from more humid settings through extensive pipelines. These projects have reversed long-term declining groundwater trends in some regions. While irrigation design has often focused on increased efficiency, "more crop per drop", optimal water resource management may benefit more from inefficient (e.g. flood irrigation) surface-water irrigation combined with efficient (e.g. subsurface drip) irrigation to maximize groundwater recharge, as seen in parts of the Central Valley. Flood irrigation of perennial crops, such as almonds and vineyards, during winter is being considered in the Central Valley to enhance groundwater recharge. Managed aquifer recharge can be considered a special case of conjunctive use of

The dwindling role of population pressure in land use change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Birch-Thomsen, Torben; Reenberg, Anette

2014-01-01

This paper explores a contemporary coupled human-environmental system on a small island in the South West Pacific. It describes the historical change of the resource management strategies, notably the agricultural land use, in this former subsistence system. Our conceptual mindset draws on Boserup......’s classic theories of land use intensification as well as on her more recently proposed heuristic framework to describe development processes that underpin land use system change. We illustrate how land use has become partially disconnected from the local population pressure and therefore remains relatively...... stable while the larger livelihood portfolio has undergone significant diversification. At present, the agricultural system is a supplement to a range of strategies that support the increasing number of people on the island. This explains why land use patterns continue relatively unchanged while...

Ignoring detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use overestimates regional terrestrial carbon sequestration

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S. Q. Zhao

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Land use change is critical in determining the distribution, magnitude and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon budgets at the local to global scales. To date, almost all regional to global carbon cycle studies are driven by a static land use map or land use change statistics with decadal time intervals. The biases in quantifying carbon exchange between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere caused by using such land use change information have not been investigated. Here, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS, along with consistent and spatially explicit land use change scenarios with different intervals (1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs and static, respectively, to evaluate the impacts of land use change data frequency on estimating regional carbon sequestration in the southeastern United States. Our results indicate that ignoring the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use can lead to a significant overestimation of carbon uptake by the terrestrial ecosystem. Regional carbon sequestration increased from 0.27 to 0.69, 0.80 and 0.97 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ when land use change data frequency shifting from 1 year to 5 years, 10 years interval and static land use information, respectively. Carbon removal by forest harvesting and prolonged cumulative impacts of historical land use change on carbon cycle accounted for the differences in carbon sequestration between static and dynamic land use change scenarios. The results suggest that it is critical to incorporate the detailed dynamics of land use change into local to global carbon cycle studies. Otherwise, it is impossible to accurately quantify the geographic distributions, magnitudes, and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon sequestration at the local to global scales.

Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services.

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Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien

2014-09-23

Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Science.gov (United States)

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGES IN SEMI-ARID MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPE IN SOUTHERN INDIA: A GEOINFORMATICS BASED MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH

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S. A. Rahaman

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Nowadays land use/ land cover in mountain landscape is in critical condition; it leads to high risky and uncertain environments. These areas are facing multiple stresses including degradation of land resources; vagaries of climate and depletion of water resources continuously affect land use practices and livelihoods. To understand the Land use/Land cover (Lu/Lc changes in a semi-arid mountain landscape, Kallar watershed of Bhavani basin, in southern India has been chosen. Most of the hilly part in the study area covers with forest, plantation, orchards and vegetables and which are highly affected by severe soil erosion, landslide, frequent rainfall failures and associated drought. The foothill regions are mainly utilized for agriculture practices; due to water scarcity and meagre income, the productive agriculture lands are converted into settlement plots and wasteland. Hence, land use/land cover change deduction; a stochastic processed based method is indispensable for future prediction. For identification of land use/land cover, and vegetation changes, Landsat TM, ETM (1995, 2005 and IRS P6- LISS IV (2015 images were used. Through CAMarkov chain analysis, Lu/Lc changes in past three decades (1995, 2005, and 2015 were identified and projected for (2020 and 2025; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were used to find the vegetation changes. The result shows that, maximum changes occur in the plantation and slight changes found in forest cover in the hilly terrain. In foothill areas, agriculture lands were decreased while wastelands and settlement plots were increased. The outcome of the results helps to farmer and policy makers to draw optimal lands use planning and better management strategies for sustainable development of natural resources.

Land Use/land Cover Changes in Semi-Arid Mountain Landscape in Southern India: a Geoinformatics Based Markov Chain Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Rahaman, S. A.; Aruchamy, S.; Balasubramani, K.; Jegankumar, R.

2017-05-01

Nowadays land use/ land cover in mountain landscape is in critical condition; it leads to high risky and uncertain environments. These areas are facing multiple stresses including degradation of land resources; vagaries of climate and depletion of water resources continuously affect land use practices and livelihoods. To understand the Land use/Land cover (Lu/Lc) changes in a semi-arid mountain landscape, Kallar watershed of Bhavani basin, in southern India has been chosen. Most of the hilly part in the study area covers with forest, plantation, orchards and vegetables and which are highly affected by severe soil erosion, landslide, frequent rainfall failures and associated drought. The foothill regions are mainly utilized for agriculture practices; due to water scarcity and meagre income, the productive agriculture lands are converted into settlement plots and wasteland. Hence, land use/land cover change deduction; a stochastic processed based method is indispensable for future prediction. For identification of land use/land cover, and vegetation changes, Landsat TM, ETM (1995, 2005) and IRS P6- LISS IV (2015) images were used. Through CAMarkov chain analysis, Lu/Lc changes in past three decades (1995, 2005, and 2015) were identified and projected for (2020 and 2025); Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to find the vegetation changes. The result shows that, maximum changes occur in the plantation and slight changes found in forest cover in the hilly terrain. In foothill areas, agriculture lands were decreased while wastelands and settlement plots were increased. The outcome of the results helps to farmer and policy makers to draw optimal lands use planning and better management strategies for sustainable development of natural resources.

Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change

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R. A. Houghton

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The net flux of carbon from land use and land-cover change (LULCC accounted for 12.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010. This net flux is the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget, not only because of uncertainties in rates of deforestation and forestation, but also because of uncertainties in the carbon density of the lands actually undergoing change. Furthermore, there are differences in approaches used to determine the flux that introduce variability into estimates in ways that are difficult to evaluate, and not all analyses consider the same types of management activities. Thirteen recent estimates of net carbon emissions from LULCC are summarized here. In addition to deforestation, all analyses considered changes in the area of agricultural lands (croplands and pastures. Some considered, also, forest management (wood harvest, shifting cultivation. None included emissions from the degradation of tropical peatlands. Means and standard deviations across the thirteen model estimates of annual emissions for the 1980s and 1990s, respectively, are 1.14 ± 0.23 and 1.12 ± 0.25 Pg C yr⁻¹ (1 Pg = 10¹⁵ g carbon. Four studies also considered the period 2000–2009, and the mean and standard deviations across these four for the three decades are 1.14 ± 0.39, 1.17 ± 0.32, and 1.10 ± 0.11 Pg C yr⁻¹. For the period 1990–2009 the mean global emissions from LULCC are 1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yr⁻¹. The standard deviations across model means shown here are smaller than previous estimates of uncertainty as they do not account for the errors that result from data uncertainty and from an incomplete understanding of all the processes affecting the net flux of carbon from LULCC. Although these errors have not been systematically evaluated, based on partial analyses available in the literature and expert opinion, they are estimated to be on the order of ± 0.5 Pg C yr⁻¹.

Modelling crop land use change derived from influencing factors selected and ranked by farmers in North temperate agricultural regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehdi, Bano; Lehner, Bernhard; Ludwig, Ralf

2018-08-01

To develop meaningful land use scenarios, drivers that affect changes in the landscape are required. In this study, driving factors that influence farmers to change crops on their farm were determined. A questionnaire was administered to four independent groups of farmers who identified and ranked influencing factors pertaining to their choices of crops. The farmers were located in two mid-latitude agricultural watersheds (in Germany and Canada). The ranked influencing factors were used to develop a "farmer driven" scenario to 2040 in both watersheds. Results showed that the most important influencing factors for farmers to change crops were the "economic return of the crop" and "market factors". Yet, when the drivers of crop land use change were grouped into two categories of "financial" and "indirectly-related financial" factors, the "financial" factors made up approximately half of the influencing factors. For some responses, the "indirectly-related financial" factors (i.e. "access to farm equipment", the "farm experience", and "climate") ranked higher than or just as high as the financial factors. Overall, in the four farmer groups the differences between the rankings of the influencing factors were minor, indicating that drivers may be transferable between farms if the farmers are full-time and the farming regions have comparable growing seasons, access to markets, similar technology, and government programs for farm income. In addition to the "farmer driven" scenario, a "policy driven" scenario was derived for each watershed based only on available information on the financial incentives provided to farmers (i.e. agricultural subsidies, income support, crop insurance). The influencing factors ranked by the farmers provided in-depth information that was not captured by the "policy driven" scenario and contributed to improving predictions for crop land use development. This straight-forward method to rank qualitative data provided by farmers can easily be

Mitigation of unwanted direct and indirect land-use change - an integrated approach illustrated for palm oil, pulpwood, rubber and rice production in North and East Kalimantan, Indonesia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Laan, Carina; Wicke, Birka; Verweij, Pita A.; Faaij, André P C

2017-01-01

The widespread production of cash crops can result in the decline of forests, peatlands, rice fields and local community land. Such unwanted land-use and land-cover (LULC) change can lead to decreased carbon stocks, diminished biodiversity, displaced communities and reduced local food production. In

Geospatial Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes for Discharge at Way Kualagaruntang Watershed in Bandar Lampung

OpenAIRE

Yuniarti, Fieni; K, Dyah Indriana; Winarno, Dwi Joko

2013-01-01

Land use and land cover change in a watershed might drive some impacts, such as high amounts of discharge fluctuations. Way Kuala Garuntang Watersheed is one of watershed in Bandar Lampung that has changed significantly. This study analyzed land use and land cover change to determine how much its influence on discharce fluctuations based on Geographics Information System. The method used in this study comprised of hidrology, spatial and sensitivity analysis. Hidrology analysis based on daily ...

Land cover change mapping using MODIS time series to improve emissions inventories

Science.gov (United States)

López-Saldaña, Gerardo; Quaife, Tristan; Clifford, Debbie

2016-04-01

MELODIES is an FP7 funded project to develop innovative and sustainable services, based upon Open Data, for users in research, government, industry and the general public in a broad range of societal and environmental benefit areas. Understanding and quantifying land surface changes is necessary for estimating greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions, and for meeting air quality limits and targets. More sophisticated inventories methodologies for at least key emission source are needed due to policy-driven air quality directives. Quantifying land cover changes on an annual basis requires greater spatial and temporal disaggregation of input data. The main aim of this study is to develop a methodology for using Earth Observations (EO) to identify annual land surface changes that will improve emissions inventories from agriculture and land use/land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in the UK. First goal is to find the best sets of input features that describe accurately the surface dynamics. In order to identify annual and inter-annual land surface changes, a times series of surface reflectance was used to capture seasonal variability. Daily surface reflectance images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 500m resolution were used to invert a Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model to create the seamless time series. Given the limited number of cloud-free observations, a BRDF climatology was used to constrain the model inversion and where no high-scientific quality observations were available at all, as a gap filler. The Land Cover Map 2007 (LC2007) produced by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) was used for training and testing purposes. A land cover product was created for 2003 to 2015 and a bayesian approach was created to identified land cover changes. We will present the results of the time series development and the first exercises when creating the land cover and land cover changes products.

Land use change monitoring in Maryland using a probabilistic sample and rapid photointerpretation

Science.gov (United States)

Tonya Lister; Andrew Lister; Eunice Alexander

2014-01-01

The U.S. state of Maryland needs to monitor land use change in order to address land management objectives. This paper presents a change detection method that, through automation and standard geographic information system (GIS) techniques, facilitates the estimation of landscape change via photointerpretation. Using the protocols developed, we show a net loss of forest...

The place character as land use change determinant in Deli Serdang

Science.gov (United States)

Lindarto, D.; Sirojuzilam; Badaruddin; Aulia, DN

2018-03-01

The Mebidangro concept of development (Medan, Binjai, Deli Serdang, Karo) in Sumatera Utara creating peri urban area in region hinterland Medan city especially in Tembung village, Percut Sei Tuan District. This peri urban area is a conjunction of several rural-urban activities that forming a friendly atmosphere. The dynamic of population structure shows occurrence the sprawl of land use change condition. In the site of the urban region showing the unique performance that built the place character. The aim of the study is to uncover the place character as one of land use change determinant factors. The study conducted with quantitative approach intended at obtaining variables which describing several factors forming land use change. Descriptive approach give an idea, justification, and fact-finding with correct interpretation. Data collected through a purposive sampling of 320 respondents who stay and built the building and land between 2010 till 2014. With overlay figure/ground technique, scoring analysis, descriptive quantitative and SEM (Structural Equational Models) gained a result that urban heritage (p=0,008) potentially as one of the main land use change driving factors besides accessibility (p=0,039), infrastructure (p=0,010), social-economic (p=0,038) in fact topographic factor (p=0,663) was inversely potentially. The implication of the findings is required intensive attention toward the form of place character (mosque, the quarter, district activity, peri urban edges city and railway) as determinant factors of land use change considering forming the identity of the rapid change in land use transformation.

Research on Land Use Changes in Panjin City Basing on Remote Sensing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Hua; Li, Ru Ren; Shuang Sun, Li; Wang, Xin; Liu, Yu Mei

2018-05-01

Taking Landsat remote sensing image as the main data source, the research on land use changes in Panjin City in 2005 to 2015 is made with the support of remote sensing platform and GIS platform in this paper; the range of land use changes and change rate are analyzed through the classification of remote sensing image; the dynamic analysis on land changes is made with the help of transfer matrix of land use type; the quantitative calculation on all kinds of dynamic change features of land changes is made by utilizing mathematical model; and the analysis on driving factors of land changes of image is made at last. The research results show that, in recent ten years, the area of cultivated land in Panjin City decreased, the area of vegetation increased, and meanwhile the area of road increased drastically, the settlement place decreased than ever, and water area changed slightly.

Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; Yang, Qichun

2018-02-01

To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.

Population, conservation, and land use change in Honduras

Science.gov (United States)

Max J. Pfeffer; John W. Schlelhas; Stephen D. DeGloria; Jorge Gomez

2005-01-01

This paper examines the role of population density on land use allocation and change. We are especially interested in the management of fallow areas that have come under increasing pressure given restrictions imposed by the creation of protected areas like national parks. It is argued that these restrictions to reduce deforestation create a relative scarcity of land,...

Land use change and human systems dynamics: Cotacachi Ecuador 1963-2000

OpenAIRE

Rhoades, Robert E.

2004-01-01

This presentation reports on a study to analyze land-use change over 40 years in Cotacachi, Ecuador, link land-use change to human system dynamics, and discuss implications for sustainability. BA-2 (SANREM-Andes Research)

Implications of land use change in tropical West Africa under global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Brücher, Tim; Claussen, Martin

2015-04-01

Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, are highly vulnerable to climate change, due to strong exposure to increasing temperature, precipitation variability, and population growth. A major link between climate and humans in this region is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. But how strongly does climate change affect land use and how strongly does land use feeds back into climate change? To which extent may climate-induced water, food and wood shortages exacerbate conflict potential and lead changes in land use and to migration? Estimates of possible changes in African climate vary among the Earth System Models participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) exercise, except for the region adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where a significant decrease of precipitation emerges. While all models agree in a strong temperature increase, rainfall uncertainties for most parts of the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudan are higher. Here we present results of complementary experiments based on extreme and idealized land use change scenarios within a future climate.. We use the MPI-ESM forced with a strong green house gas scenario (RCP8.5) and apply an additional land use forcing by varying largely the intensity and kind of agricultural practice. By these transient experiments (until 2100) we elaborate the additional impact on climate due to strong land use forcing. However, the differences are mostly insignificant. The greenhouse gas caused temperature increase and the high variability in the West African Monsoon rainfall superposes the minor changes in climate due to land use. While simulated climate key variables like precipitation and temperature are not distinguishable from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 results, an additional greening is simulated, when crops are demanded. Crops have lower water usage than pastureland has. This benefits available soil water, which is taken up by the natural vegetation and makes it more

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

Society's choices: land use changes, forest fragmentation, and conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonathan Thompson

2006-01-01

Changing patterns of land use are at the heart of many environmental concerns regarding U.S. forest lands. Of all the human impacts to forests, development is one of the most significant because of the severity and permanency of the change. Concern about the effects of development on America’s forests has risen sharply since the 1990s, when the conversion of forest...

A novel method for quantifying the greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels based on historical land use change

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.; Rhodes, J.; Clarens, A. F.

2012-12-01

Land use change (LUC) emissions have been at the center of an ongoing debate about how the carbon footprint of biofuels compare to petroleum-based fuels over their entire life cycle. The debate about LUC has important implications in the US, the EU, and other countries that are working to deploy biofuel policies, informed by life cycle assessment, that promote carbon emission reductions, among other things. LUC calculations often distinguish between direct land use change (DLUC), those that occur onsite, and indirect land use change (ILUC), those that result from market mechanisms leading to emissions that are either spatially or temporally removed from the agricultural activity. These designations are intended to capture the fundamental connection between agricultural production of biofuel feedstock and its physical effects on the land, but both DLUC and ILUC can be difficult to measure and apply broadly. ILUC estimates are especially challenging to quantify because they rely on global economic models to assess how much land would be brought into production in other countries as a consequence of biofuel feedstock cultivation. As a result, ILUC estimates inherently uncertain, are sensitive to complex assumptions, have limited transparency, and have precipitated sufficient controversy to delay development of coherent biofuel policies. To address these shortcomings of conventional LUC methodologies, we have developed a method for estimating land use change emissions that is based on historical emissions from a parcel of land. The method, which we call historical land use change (HLUC) can be readily quantified for any parcel of land in the world using open source datasets of historical emissions. HLUC is easy to use and is directly tied to the physical processes on land used for biofuel production. The emissions from the HLUC calculations are allocated between historical agricultural activity and proposed biofuel feedstock cultivation. This is compatible with

Performance comparison of land change modeling techniques for land use projection of arid watersheds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.M. Tajbakhsh

2018-07-01

Full Text Available The change of land use/land cover has been known as an imperative force in environmental alteration, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. This research was mainly aimed to assess the validity of two major types of land change modeling techniques via a three dimensional approach in Birjand urban watershed located in an arid climatic region of Iran. Thus, a Markovian approach based on two suitability and transition potential mappers, i.e. fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and artificial neural network-multi layer perceptron was used to simulate land use map. Validation metrics, quantity disagreement, allocation disagreement and figure of merit in a three-dimensional space were used to perform model validation. Utilizing the fuzzy-analytic hierarchy processsimulation of total landscape in the target point 2015, quantity error, the figure of merit and allocation error were 2%, 18.5% and 8%, respectively. However, Artificial neural network-multi layer perceptron simulation led to a marginal improvement in figure of merit, i.e. 3.25%.

Role of Ethanol Plants in Dakotas’ Land Use Change: Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data

OpenAIRE

Arora, Gaurav; Wolter, Peter T.; Feng, Hongli; Hennessy, David A.

2015-01-01

North and South Dakota have experienced rapid land-use changes in the past decade. Recent studies have shown that these land-use changes are mainly characterized by conversions of grasslands to crop production, especially corn and soybeans. Approximately 271,000 hectares of grasslands were lost to corn and soy production in 2006-2011 period, almost seven times the losses in 1989-2003. The implications of these changing land-uses range from reduced biodiversity and loss of habitat for waterfow...

Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2017-12-01

Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied

Land use/land cover change geo-informative Tupu of Nujiang River in Northwest Yunnan Province

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jin-liang; Yang, Yue-yuan; Huang, You-ju; Fu, Lei; Rao, Qing

2008-10-01

Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) is the core components of global change researches. It is significant for understanding regional ecological environment and LUCC mechanism of large scale to develop the study of LUCC of regional level. Nujiang River is the upper reaches of a big river in the South Asia--Salween River. Nujiang River is a typical mountainous river which is 3200 kilometer long and its basin area is 32.5 × 105 square kilometer. It locates in the core of "Three Parallel Rivers" World Natural Heritage. It is one of international biodiversity conservation center of the world, the ecological fragile zone and key ecological construction area, as well as a remote undeveloped area with high diversity ethnic. With the rapidly development of society and economy, the land use and land cover changed in a great degree. The function of ecosystem has being degraded in some areas which will not only impact on the ecological construction of local area, but also on the ecological safety of lower reaches -- Salween River. Therefore it is necessary to carry out the research of LUCC of Nujiang River. Based on the theory and methods of geo-information Tupu, the "Spatial Pattern" and "Change Process" of land use of middle reach in Nujiang River from 1974 to 2004 had been studied in quantification and integration, so as to provide a case study in local area and mesoscale in time. Supported by the remote sensing and GIS technology, LUCC Tupu of 1974-2004 had been built and the characteristics of LUCC have been analyzed quantificationally. The results showed that the built-up land (Included in this category are cities, towns, villages, strip developments along highways, transportation, power, and communications facilities, and areas such as those occupied by mills, shopping centers, industrial and commercial complexes, and institutions that may, in some instances, be isolated from urban areas), agriculture land, shrubbery land, meadow & grassland, difficultly/unused land

Sustainable Planning of Land Use Changes in farming areas under ecological protection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Montero-García, F.; Montero-Riquelme, F.; Brasa-Ramos, A.; Carsjens, G.J.

2010-01-01

Land use has been changing in the last decades because of agricultural intensification and land abandonment which implies deterioration in the optimum habitat structure and quality. Habitat degradation and loss, resulting from changes in land use remain significant drivers of biodiversity loss.

The role of land use changes in the distribution of shallow landslides.

Science.gov (United States)

Persichillo, Maria Giuseppina; Bordoni, Massimiliano; Meisina, Claudia

2017-01-01

The role of land use dynamics on shallow landslide susceptibility remains an unresolved problem. Thus, this work aims to assess the influence of land use changes on shallow landslide susceptibility. Three shallow landslide-prone areas that are representative of peculiar land use settings in the Oltrepò Pavese (North Apennines) are analysed: the Rio Frate, Versa and Alta Val Tidone catchments. These areas were affected by widespread land abandonment and modifications in agricultural practices from 1954 to 2012 and relevant shallow landslide phenomena in 2009, 2013 and 2014. A multi-temporal land use change analysis allows us to evaluate the degree of transformation in the three investigated areas and the influence of these changes on the susceptibility to shallow landslides. The results show that the three catchments were characterised by pronounced land abandonment and important changes in agricultural practices. In particular, abandoned cultivated lands that gradually recovered through natural grasses, shrubs and woods were identified as the land use change classes that were most prone to shallow landslides. Additionally, the negative qualities of the agricultural maintenance practices increased the surface water runoff and consequently intensified erosion processes and instability phenomena. Although the land use was identified as the most important predisposing factor in all the study areas, some cases existed in which the predisposition of certain areas to shallow landslides was influenced by the combined effect of land use changes and the geological conditions, as highlighted by the high susceptibility of slopes that are characterised by adverse local geological (thick soils derived from clayey-marly bedrocks) and geomorphological (slope angle higher than 25°) conditions. Thus, the achieved results are particularly useful to understand the best land conservation strategies to be adopted to reduce instability phenomena and the consequent economic losses in

Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. Report for Policy Advisors and Policy Makers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berndes, Goran [Chalmers Univ. of Technology (Sweden); Bird, Nell [Joanneum Research (Austria); Cowle, Annette [National Centre for Rural Greenhouse Gas Research (Australia)

2010-07-01

The report addresses a much debated issue - bioenergy and associated land use change, and how the climate change mitigation from use of bioenergy can be influenced by greenhouse gas emissions arising from land use change. The purpose of the report was to produce an unbiased, authoritative statement on this topic aimed especially at policy advisors and policy makers.

Land use change and prediction in the Baimahe Basin using GIS and CA-Markov model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Shixu; Zhang, Zulu; Wang, Xue

2014-01-01

Using ArcGIS and IDRISI, land use dynamics and Shannon entropy information were applied in this paper to analyze the quantity and structure change in the Baimahe Basin from 1996 to 2008. A CA-Markov model was applied to predict the land use patterns in 2020. Results showed that farmland, forest and construction land are the dominant land use types in the Baimahe Basin. From 1996 to 2008, areas of farmland and forest decreased and other land use types increased, with construction land increasing the most. The prediction results showed that the changes in land use patterns from 2008 to 2020 would be the same with those from 1996 to 2008. Main changes are the transiting out of farmland and forest and the transiting in of construction land. The order degree of the whole basin goes on decreasing. Measures of farmland protection and grain for green projects should be adopted to enhance the stability of land use system in the Baimahe Basin in order to promote regional sustainable development

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

2018-03-01

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

Bioenergy from crops and biomass residues: a consequential life-cycle assessment including land-use changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tonini, Davide; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

Biofuels are promising means to reduce fossil fuel depletion and mitigate greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. However, recent studies questioned the environmental benefits earlier attributed to biofuels, when these involve land-use changes (direct/indirect, i.e., dLUC/iLUC) (1-5). Yet, second...... to represent the actual environmental impacts. This study quantified the GHG emissions associated with a number of scenarios involving bioenergy production (as combined-heat-and-power, heating, and transport biofuel) from energy crops, industrial/agricultural residues, algae, and the organic fraction...... of municipal solid waste. Four conversion pathways were considered: combustion, fermentation-to-ethanol, fermentation-to-biogas, and thermal gasification. A total of 80 bioenergy scenarios were assessed. Consequential life-cycle assessment (CLCA) was used to quantify the environmental impacts. CLCA aimed...

Potential synergies between existing multilateral environmental agreements in the implementation of land use, land-use change and forestry activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowie, Annette; Schneider, Uwe A.; Montanarella, Luca

2007-01-01

There is potential for synergy between the global environmental conventions on climate change, biodiversity and desertification: changes in land management and land use undertaken to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions can simultaneously deliver positive outcomes for conservation of biodiversity, and mitigation of desertification and land degradation. However, while there can be complementarities between the three environmental goals, there are often tradeoffs. Thus, the challenge lies in developing land use policies that promote optimal environmental outcomes, and in implementing these locally to promote sustainable development. The paper considers synergies and tradeoffs in implementing land use measures to address the objectives of the three global environmental conventions, both from an environmental and economic perspective. The intention is to provide environmental scientists and policy makers with a broad overview of these considerations, and the benefits of addressing the conventions simultaneously

Land cover change detection of Hatiya Island, Bangladesh, using remote sensing techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Lalit; Ghosh, Manoj Kumer

2012-01-01

Land cover change is a significant issue for environmental managers for sustainable management. Remote sensing techniques have been shown to have a high probability of recognizing land cover patterns and change detection due to periodic coverage, data integrity, and provision of data in a broad range of the electromagnetic spectrum. We evaluate the applicability of remote sensing techniques for land cover pattern recognition, as well as land cover change detection of the Hatiya Island, Bangladesh, and quantify land cover changes from 1977 to 1999. A supervised classification approach was used to classify Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM), Thematic Mapper (TM), and Multispectral Scanner (MSS) images into eight major land cover categories. We detected major land cover changes over the 22-year study period. During this period, marshy land, mud, mud with small grass, and bare soil had decreased by 85%, 46%, 44%, and 24%, respectively, while agricultural land, medium forest, forest, and settlement had positive changes of 26%, 45%, 363%, and 59%, respectively. The primary drivers of such landscape change were erosion and accretion processes, human pressure, and the reforestation and land reclamation programs of the Bangladesh Government.

Impact of Past Land Use Changes on Drinking Water Quantity and Quality in Ljubljana Aquifer

Science.gov (United States)

Bracic Zeleznik, Branka; Cencur Curk, Barbara

2010-05-01

Most of the practical problems that we face today with the on-site management of drinking water sources and distribution of healthy drinking water, originate from past actions, interventions and political decisions. In Ljubljana, the capital of the Republic of Slovenia, underlying groundwater is the main drinking water source. The main threat to drinking water sources is constant input of pollutant loads from roads, roofs, sewers, industry and agricultural areas. The main problems are directly and indirectly related to the significant decrease of groundwater level and deterioration of groundwater quality observed in the last decades as an effect of land use practices under varying climate conditions. The Vodovod-Kanalizacija Public Utility is responsible for water supply of the city residents as well as for management of the water supply system, its surveillance and maintenance. In the past, the Ljubljana Municipality was responsible for the protection of water resources and the first delineation of groundwater protection areas was issued in Decree in 1955. In 2004 a Decree on the water protection zones for the aquifer of Ljubljansko polje on the state level was issued and passed the competences of proclamation of the water protection zones to the state. Spatial planning is a domain of The Municipality and land use is limited according to water protection legislation. For several observation wells long-time data sets about groundwater levels and quality are available, which enable us to analyse changes in groundwater quantity and quality parameters. From the data it is obvious that climate variations are affecting groundwater recharge. In addition, changing of land use affects groundwater quality. In spite of the Decree on the water protection there is a heavy pressure of investors to change land use plans and regulations on protection zones, which causes every day problems in managing the drinking water source. Groundwater management in Ljubljana demands strong

Modelling forest loss and other land use change dynamics in Ashanti Region of Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koranteng Addo

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Forest losses amid land use dynamics have become issues of outermost concern in the light of climate change phenomenon which has captivated the world’s attention. It is imperative to monitor land use change and to forecast forms of future land use change on a temporal and spatial basis. The main thrust of this study is to assess land use change in the lower half of the Ashanti Region of Ghana within a 40 year period. The analysis of land use change uses a combination method in Remote Sensing (RS and Geographic Information System (GIS. Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (Cellular Automata-Markov are utilized to predict for land use land cover (LULC change for 2020 and 2030. The processes used include: (i a data pre-processing (geometric corrections, radiometric corrections, subset creation and image enhancement of epoch Landsat images acquired in 1990, 2000, and Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC 2010; (ii classification of multispectral imagery (iii Change detection mapping (iv using Cellular Automata-Markov to generate land use change in the next 20 years. The results illustrate that in years 2020 to 2030 in the foreseeable future, there will an upsurge in built up areas, while a decline in agricultural land use is envisaged. Agricultural land use would still be the dominant land use type. Forests would be drastically reduced from close to 50% in 1990 to just fewer than 10% in 2030. Land use decision making must be very circumspect, especially in an era where Ghana has opted to take advantage of REDD+. Studies such as this provide vital pieces of information which may be used to monitor, direct and influence land use change to a more beneficial and sustainable manner

Land-use and land-management change: relationships with earthworm and fungi communities and soil structural properties.

Science.gov (United States)

Spurgeon, David J; Keith, Aidan M; Schmidt, Olaf; Lammertsma, Dennis R; Faber, Jack H

2013-12-01

Change in land use and management can impact massively on soil ecosystems. Ecosystem engineers and other functional biodiversity in soils can be influenced directly by such change and this in turn can affect key soil functions. Here, we employ meta-analysis to provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of changes in land use and land management across a range of successional/extensification transitions (conventional arable → no or reduced tillage → grassland → wooded land) on community metrics for two functionally important soil taxa, earthworms and fungi. An analysis of the relationships between community change and soil structural properties was also included. Meta-analysis highlighted a consistent trend of increased earthworm and fungal community abundances and complexity following transitions to lower intensity and later successional land uses. The greatest changes were seen for early stage transitions, such as introduction of reduced tillage regimes and conversion to grassland from arable land. Not all changes, however, result in positive effects on the assessed community metrics. For example, whether woodland conversion positively or negatively affects community size and complexity depends on woodland type and, potentially, the changes in soil properties, such as pH, that may occur during conversion. Alterations in soil communities tended to facilitate subsequent changes in soil structure and hydrology. For example, increasing earthworm abundances and functional group composition were shown to be positively correlated with water infiltration rate (dependent on tillage regime and habitat characteristics); while positive changes in fungal biomass measures were positively associated with soil microaggregate stability. These findings raise the potential to manage landscapes to increase ecosystem service provision from soil biota in relation to regulation of soil structure and water flow.

Remote Sensing of Urban Land Cover/Land Use Change, Surface Thermal Responses, and Potential Meteorological and Climate Change Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Jedlovec, Gary; Meyer, Paul

2011-01-01

City growth influences the development of the urban heat island (UHI), but the effect that local meteorology has on the UHI is less well known. This paper presents some preliminary findings from a study that uses multitemporal Landsat TM and ASTER data to evaluate land cover/land use change (LULCC) over the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) and its Huntsville, AL metropolitan area. Landsat NLCD data for 1992 and 2001 have been used to evaluate LULCC for MSFC and the surrounding urban area. Land surface temperature (LST) and emissivity derived from NLCD data have also been analyzed to assess changes in these parameters in relation to LULCC. Additionally, LULCC, LST, and emissivity have been identified from ASTER data from 2001 and 2011 to provide a comparison with the 2001 NLCD and as a measure of current conditions within the study area. As anticipated, the multi-temporal NLCD and ASTER data show that significant changes have occurred in land covers, LST, and emissivity within and around MSFC. The patterns and arrangement of these changes, however, is significant because the juxtaposition of urban land covers within and outside of MSFC provides insight on what impacts at a local to regional scale, the inter-linkage of these changes potentially have on meteorology. To further analyze these interactions between LULCC, LST, and emissivity with the lower atmosphere, a network of eleven weather stations has been established across the MSFC property. These weather stations provide data at a 10 minute interval, and these data are uplinked for use by MSFC facilities operations and the National Weather Service. The weather data are also integrated within a larger network of meteorological stations across north Alabama. Given that the MSFC weather stations will operate for an extended period of time, they can be used to evaluate how the building of new structures, and changes in roadways, and green spaces as identified in the MSFC master plan for the future, will

Revolutionary land use change in the 21st century: Is (rangeland) science relevant?

Science.gov (United States)

Herrick, J.E.; Brown, J.R.; Bestelmeyer, B.T.; Andrews, S.S.; Baldi, G.; Davies, J.; Duniway, M.; Havstad, K.M.; Karl, J.W.; Karlen, D.L.; Peters, Debra P.C.; Quinton, J.N.; Riginos, C.; Shaver, P.L.; Steinaker, D.; Twomlow, S.

2012-01-01

Rapidly increasing demand for food, fiber, and fuel together with new technologies and the mobility of global capital are driving revolutionary changes in land use throughout the world. Efforts to increase land productivity include conversion of millions of hectares of rangelands to crop production, including many marginal lands with low resistance and resilience to degradation. Sustaining the productivity of these lands requires careful land use planning and innovative management systems. Historically, this responsibility has been left to agronomists and others with expertise in crop production. In this article, we argue that the revolutionary land use changes necessary to support national and global food security potentially make rangeland science more relevant now than ever. Maintaining and increasing relevance will require a revolutionary change in range science from a discipline that focuses on a particular land use or land cover to one that addresses the challenge of managing all lands that, at one time, were considered to be marginal for crop production. We propose four strategies to increase the relevance of rangeland science to global land management: 1) expand our awareness and understanding of local to global economic, social, and technological trends in order to anticipate and identify drivers and patterns of conversion; 2) emphasize empirical studies and modeling that anticipate the biophysical (ecosystem services) and societal consequences of large-scale changes in land cover and use; 3) significantly increase communication and collaboration with the disciplines and sectors of society currently responsible for managing the new land uses; and 4) develop and adopt a dynamic and flexible resilience-based land classification system and data-supported conceptual models (e.g., state-and-transition models) that represent all lands, regardless of use and the consequences of land conversion to various uses instead of changes in state or condition that are

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

LAND USE PATTERN, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ITS IMPLICATION ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Osondu

2012-01-30

Jan 30, 2012 ... impacted seriously on Ethiopia's rich biodiversity, crop production ... change in the rural areas of Ethiopia, this paper therefore reviewed ... Key words: Climate change, Land use pattern, and Food security. .... releasing greenhouse gases, and the major driver ... Agricultural systems worldwide over the last.

Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

OpenAIRE

Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

2015-01-01

Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that ...

Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand

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Sunsanee Arunyawat

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Ecosystem services are highly vulnerable to a number of impacts due to the complex effects of human use of natural resources and subsequent land use change. Assessment of the impact of change in land use with respect to ecosystem services is necessary in order to implement appropriate land uses that enhance ecosystem services. This study analysed the impact of change in land use on ecosystem services using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST model to map and quantify a set of ecosystem services, namely sediment retention, water yield, carbon stock, and habitat quality, in northern Thailand, which has experienced substantial policy induced land use change. The study also assessed the changes in land use from 1989 to 2013 and their impact on overall ecosystem services using GIS. Increased rubber plantation cultivation and built-up areas resulting in reduced forest cover were the major changes found in land use in the area. The results of the study show a general decrease in ecosystem services for the study period in the watershed, in particular, a negative impact on ecosystem services was observed in agricultural areas. The study findings on spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services can help guide the development of appropriate land use options to enhance ecosystem services.

Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

2011-12-01

We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

A preliminary investigation of forest carbon changes associated with land-use change in northern New England

Science.gov (United States)

Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey; James E. Smith

2009-01-01

Maine (ME), New Hampshire (NH), and Vermont (VT) are three of the four most heavily forested states in the United States. In these states, we examined how land-use change, at the Anderson Level I classification, affected regional forest carbon using the 30-m Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium 1992/2001 Retrofit Land Cover Change product coupled with...

Slope and Land Use Changing Effects on Soil Properties and Magnetic Susceptibility in Hilly Lands, Yasouj Region

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rouhollaah vafaeezadeh

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Land use changes are the most reasons which affect natural ecosystem protection. Forest soils have high organic matter and suitable structure, but their land use management change usually affects soil properties and decreases soil quality. There are several outcomes of such land use changes and intensification: accelerated soil erosion and decline of soil nutrient conditions, change of hydrological regimes and sedimentation and loss of primary forests and their biodiversity. Establishing effects of land use and land cover changes on soil properties have implications for devising management strategies for sustainable use. Forest land use change in Yasouj caused soil losses and decreased soil quality. The objectives of this study were to assess some soil physical and chemical properties and soil magnetic susceptibility changes in different land uses and slope position. Materials and Methods: Soil samples were taken from natural forest, degraded forest and dryland farm from different slops (0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 percent in sout east of Yasouj. They were from 0–10 cm depth in a completely randomized design with five replications. Soil moisture and temperature regimes in the study area are xeric and mesic, respectively. Particle size distribution was determined by the hydrometer method and soil organic matter, CaCO3 equivalent and bulk density was determined using standard procedures described in Methods of Soil Analysis book. Magnetic susceptibility was measured at low and high frequency of 0.46 kHz (χlf and 4.6 kHz (χHf respectively with a Bartington MS2D meter using approximately 20 g of soil held in a four-dram clear plastic vial. Frequency dependent susceptibility (χfd is expressed as the difference between the high and the low frequency measurements as a percentage of χ at low frequency. Results and Discussion: Soil texture was affected by land use change from silty clay loam in forest to silty loam in dry land farm

Emissions from land use change and forestry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ochanda, N.

1998-01-01

This inventory focuses on net input of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as a result of land use change and forestry. The report shows the importance of dynamics of the afforestation and defforestation processes in determining the presence of carbon dioxide in the air

Land Use and Land Cover Change in Guangzhou, China, from 1998 to 2003, Based on Landsat TM /ETM+ Imagery

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Yunpeng Wang

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is a major issue in global environment change,and is especially significant in rapidly developing regions in the world. With its economicdevelopment, population growth, and urbanization, Guangzhou, a major metropolitan inSouth China, have experienced a dramatic land use and land cover (LULC change over thepast 30 years. Fast LULC change have resulted in degradation of its ecosystems andaffected adversely the environment. It is urgently needed to monitor its LULC changes andto analyses the consequences of these changes in order to provide information for policy-makers to support sustainable development. This study employed two Landsat TM/ETM images in the dry season to detect LULC patterns in 1998 and 2003, and to examine LULCchanges during the period from 1998 to 2003. The type, rate, and pattern of the changesamong five counties of Guangzhou Municipality were analyzed in details by post-classification method. LULC conversion matrix was produced for each county in order toexplore and explain the urban expansion and cropland loss, the most significant types ofLULC change. Land use conversion matrixes of five counties were discussed respectivelyin order to explore and explain the inherence of land use change. The results showed thaturban expansion in these five counties kept an even rate of increase, while substantialamount of cropland vanished during the period. It is also noted that the conversion between cropland and orchard land was intensive. Forest land became the main source of new croplands.

Dynamics of land - use change in urban area in West Jakarta

Science.gov (United States)

Pangaribowo, R. L.

2018-01-01

This aim to research is to know how land use change in West Jakarta period 2000 - 2010. The research method used is descriptive method with a quantitative approach. Data analysis was done by using the result of research instrument to find out the driving of land change and to know the change of was analyzed using GIS (Geographic Information System) in Arc View GIS 3.3 program and Quantitative Analysis Model Location Quotient (LQ) and Shift-Share Analysis (SSA) In this study. The research instrument used in the analysis was observation and documentation. Based on the analysis conducted, the results of research on land use change in West Jakarta in the period of 10 years from 2000 until 2010 is caused by several aspects that are related to each other, namely political, economic, demographic, and cultural aspects. The land use change occurred in the area which decreased by minus 367,79 hectares (2.87%), the open space area decreased by minus 103.36 hectares (0.8%), the built up area increased by 201.13 hectares (1.57%), and the settlement area was 27.14 hectares (0.21%).

Estimation of gross land-use change and its uncertainty using a Bayesian data assimilation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Peter; van Oijen, Marcel; Buys, Gwen; Tomlinson, Sam

2018-03-01

We present a method for estimating land-use change using a Bayesian data assimilation approach. The approach provides a general framework for combining multiple disparate data sources with a simple model. This allows us to constrain estimates of gross land-use change with reliable national-scale census data, whilst retaining the detailed information available from several other sources. Eight different data sources, with three different data structures, were combined in our posterior estimate of land use and land-use change, and other data sources could easily be added in future. The tendency for observations to underestimate gross land-use change is accounted for by allowing for a skewed distribution in the likelihood function. The data structure produced has high temporal and spatial resolution, and is appropriate for dynamic process-based modelling. Uncertainty is propagated appropriately into the output, so we have a full posterior distribution of output and parameters. The data are available in the widely used netCDF file format from http://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/.

THE CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF SUBSIDENCE MONITORING BY D-INSAR AND THE CHANGE OF URBAN CONSTRUCTION LAND

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K. J. Yang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The change of urban construction land affect the subsidence directly or indirectly, the method of D-InSAR has centimeter level or even millimeter accuracy that can provide a reliable and accurate data for the research of correlation analysis of subsidence monitoring by D-InSAR and the change of urban construction land. This article takes Guiyang, Nanning city as example, using 3m level TerraSAR data to construct the Subsidence model by interferometric measurement, then compared with the Chinese national land use change remote sensing survey database at the same measure time to have a correlation analysis GIS research between subsidence and the change of urban construction land. The results shows that the integral correlation coefficient achieved 0.78 between subsidence and the change of urban construction land, the major construction area and the high density construction area are with severe land subsidence. In addition, the correlation coefficient increased from the main city to the suburbs, indicates that some of the main city causes permanent settlement and is difficult to recover. It also shows that some area subsidence caused by long-term mining or other natural factors has no strong correlation with the change of urban construction land, therefore, the results of D-InSAR subsidence monitoring have a reaction on urban construction planning, guiding urban planning to high stability, low settlement area.

Monitoring and modeling land-use change in the Pearl River Delta, China, using satellite imagery and socioeconomic data

Science.gov (United States)

Seto, Karen Ching-Yee

Over the last two decades, rapid rates of economic growth in the People's Republic of China have converted large areas of natural ecosystems and agricultural lands to urban uses. The size and rate of these land-use changes may affect local and regional climate, biogeochemistry, and food supply. To assess these impacts, both the amount of land converted and its relation to socioeconomic drivers must be determined. This research combines satellite remote sensing, which is used to monitor land conversion, with socioeconomic data to model the economic and demographic drivers of land-use change in the Pearl River Delta of Southern China. This research modifies existing techniques and develops new methods to assess the type, amount, and timing of land-use change from annual Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1988 to 1996. During this period, most of the land-use change is conversion of agricultural land to urban areas. Results indicate that urban areas, increased by over 300% between 1988 and 1996. Field assessments confirm these results and indicate that the land-use change map is highly accurate at 93.5%. To use these data as inputs to statistical models, the year of land conversion derived from satellite imagery must be unbiased. A new method that uses time series techniques identifies the date at which land-use changes occur from a sequential series of TM images. The accuracy and bias of the dates of change identified compare favorably to a more conventional remote sensing change detection technique and may have the additional advantages of reducing efforts required to assemble training data and to correct for atmospheric effects. Data on the quantity of land-use change and the timing of these changes are used in conjunction with socioeconomic data to estimate statistical models that identify and quantify the demographic and economic changes on two types of land conversion: urbanization of agricultural land and urbanization of natural vegetation. Results

Prediction of Land Use Change Based on Markov and GM(1,1 Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUN Yi-yang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In order to explore the law of land use change in Laiwu City, Markov and GM(1,1 were respectively employed in the prediction of land use change in Laiwu from 2015 to 2050, after which the results were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1The variational trends of all kinds of land use change predicted by the two models were consistent and the goodness of fit of the predictive value in corresponding years in the near future was high, illustrating that the predicted results in the near future were credible and the trend predicted in mid long term could be used as reference. (2The cultivated land would remanin almost no change from 2015 to 2020, and then gradually decreaseed in a small range from 2020 to 2050. The garden, the woodland, the grassland always reducing and the decreare range of the grassland was the largest. The urban village and industrial and mining land, the transportation land would be continuously increased and the range of urban village and industrial and mining land was the largest. The water and water conservancy facilities land and the other land would be always reduced in a very small range. It could be concluded that the results predicted by the two models in the near future were credible and could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Laiwu, while the method could provide reference for the prediction of land use change.

Simulated response of water quality in public supply wells to land use change

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, P. B.; Burow, K. R.; Kauffman, L. J.; Eberts, S. M.; BöHlke, J. K.; Gurdak, J. J.

2008-07-01

Understanding how changes in land use affect water quality of public supply wells (PSW) is important because of the strong influence of land use on water quality, the rapid pace at which changes in land use are occurring in some parts of the world, and the large contribution of groundwater to the global water supply. In this study, groundwater flow models incorporating particle tracking and reaction were used to analyze the response of water quality in PSW to land use change in four communities: Modesto, California (Central Valley aquifer); York, Nebraska (High Plains aquifer); Woodbury, Connecticut (Glacial aquifer); and Tampa, Florida (Floridan aquifer). The water quality response to measured and hypothetical land use change was dependent on age distributions of water captured by the wells and on the temporal and spatial variability of land use in the area contributing recharge to the wells. Age distributions of water captured by the PSW spanned about 20 years at Woodbury and >1,000 years at Modesto and York, and the amount of water <50 years old captured by the PSW ranged from 30% at York to 100% at Woodbury. Short-circuit pathways in some PSW contributing areas, such as long irrigation well screens that crossed multiple geologic layers (York) and karst conduits (Tampa), affected age distributions by allowing relatively rapid movement of young water to those well screens. The spatial component of land use change was important because the complex distribution of particle travel times within the contributing areas strongly influenced contaminant arrival times and degradation reaction progress. Results from this study show that timescales for change in the quality of water from PSW could be on the order of years to centuries for land use changes that occur over days to decades, which could have implications for source water protection strategies that rely on land use change to achieve water quality objectives.

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Science.gov (United States)

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Climatology (communication arising): Rural land-use change and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2004-01-01

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Climatology (communication arising): rural land-use change and climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E

2004-01-15

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Rubber and Land-Cover Land-Use Change in Mainland Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, J. M.; Hurni, K.

2017-12-01

Over the past half century, the five countries of Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) - Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam - have witnessed major shifts from predominantly subsistence agrarian economies to increasingly commercialized agriculture. Major drivers of change include policy initiatives that fostered regional economic integration and promoted among other changes rapid expansion of boom-crop plantations. Among the many types of commercial boom crops promoted and grown in MSEA are numerous tree-based products such as rubber, coffee, tree species for pulp and paper (particularly eucalyptus and acacia), cashews, and fruits such as oranges, lychees, and longans. The project proposal hypothesized that most (but not all) tree crops replaced swidden cultivation fields and hence are not necessarily accompanied by deforestation. We used MODIS EVI and SWIR time-series from 2001-2014 to classify changes in tree cover across MSEA; a total of 6849 sample points were used to train the classifier (75%) and verification (25%). The classification consists of 24 classes and 17 classes represent tree crops. Project results suggest that 4.4 m ha of rubber have been planted since 2003; 50% of rubber is planted on former evergreen forest land, 18% on deciduous forest land, and 32% on low vegetation area (former crop lands, bushes, scrub). Tree crops occupy about 8% of the landscape (half of that is rubber). Due to the differences in their political and economic histories these countries display different LCLUCs. In northern Laos, smallholder rubber plantations dominate and shifting cultivation is common in the upland. In southern Laos, large-scale plantations of rubber, coffee, eucalyptus, and sugarcane are widespread. In Thailand, vast areas are covered by annual agriculture; fruit trees and rubber are the prevailing tree crops and are mostly planted by smallholders. In Cambodia, large-scale rubber plantations have expanded in recent years on forest lands; smallholder

Land-use change and global climate policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gitz, V.

2004-03-01

This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO 2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO 2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

Land cover change detection in West Jilin using ETM+ images

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Edward M.Osei,Jr.; ZHOU Yun-xuan

2004-01-01

In order to assess the information content and accuracy ofLandsat ETM+ digital images in land cover change detection,change-detection techniques of image differencing,normalized difference vegetation index,principal components analysis and tasseled-cap transformation were applied to yield 13 images. These images were thresholded into change and no change areas. The thresholded images were then checked in terms of various accuracies. The experiment results show that kappa coefficients of the 13 images range from 48.05 ～78.09. Different images do detect different types of changes. Images associated with changes in the near-infrared-reflectance or greenness detects crop-type changes and changes between vegetative and non-vegetative features. A unique means of using only Landsat imagery without reference data for the assessment of change in arid land are presented. Images of 12th June, 2000 and 2nd June, 2002 are used to validate the means. Analyses of standard accuracy and spatial agreement are performed to compare the new images (hereafter called "change images" ) representing the change between the two dates. Spatial agreement evaluates the conformity in the classified "change pixels" and "no-change pixels" at the same location on different change images and comprehensively examines the different techniques. This method would enable authorities to monitor land degradation efficiently and accurately.

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

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Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2015-01-01

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

Assessing changes in the value of ecosystem services in response to land-use/land-cover dynamics in Nigeria.

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Arowolo, Aisha Olushola; Deng, Xiangzheng; Olatunji, Olusanya Abiodun; Obayelu, Abiodun Elijah

2018-09-15

Increasing human activities worldwide have significantly altered the natural ecosystems and consequently, the services they provide. This is no exception in Nigeria, where land-use/land-cover has undergone a series of dramatic changes over the years mainly due to the ever-growing large population. However, estimating the impact of such changes on a wide range of ecosystem services is seldom attempted. Thus, on the basis of GlobeLand30 land-cover maps for 2000 and 2010 and using the value transfer methodology, we evaluated changes in the value of ecosystem services in response to land-use/land-cover dynamics in Nigeria. The results showed that over the 10-year period, cultivated land sprawl over the forests and savannahs was predominant, and occurred mainly in the northern region of the country. During this period, we calculated an increase in the total ecosystem services value (ESV) in Nigeria from 665.93 billion (2007 US$) in 2000 to 667.44 billion (2007 US$) in 2010, 97.38% of which was contributed by cultivated land. The value of provisioning services increased while regulation, support, recreation and culture services decreased, amongst which, water regulation (-11.01%), gas regulation (-7.13%), cultural (-4.84%) and climate regulation (-4.3%) ecosystem functions are estimated as the most impacted. The increase in the total ESV in Nigeria associated with the huge increase in ecosystem services due to cultivated land expansion may make land-use changes (i.e. the ever-increasing agricultural expansion in Nigeria) appear economically profitable. However, continuous loss of services such as climate and water regulation that are largely provided by the natural ecosystems can result in huge economic losses that may exceed the apparent gains from cultivated land development. Therefore, we advocate that the conservation of the natural ecosystem should be a priority in future land-use management in Nigeria, a country highly vulnerable to climate change and incessantly

Using remote sensing and GIS to detect and monitor land use and land cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh during 1960-2005.

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Dewan, Ashraf M; Yamaguchi, Yasushi

2009-03-01

This paper illustrates the result of land use/cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh using topographic maps and multi-temporal remotely sensed data from 1960 to 2005. The Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was used to extract information from satellite data, and post-classification change detection method was employed to detect and monitor land use/cover change. Derived land use/cover maps were further validated by using high resolution images such as SPOT, IRS, IKONOS and field data. The overall accuracy of land cover change maps, generated from Landsat and IRS-1D data, ranged from 85% to 90%. The analysis indicated that the urban expansion of Dhaka Metropolitan resulted in the considerable reduction of wetlands, cultivated land, vegetation and water bodies. The maps showed that between 1960 and 2005 built-up areas increased approximately 15,924 ha, while agricultural land decreased 7,614 ha, vegetation decreased 2,336 ha, wetland/lowland decreased 6,385 ha, and water bodies decreased about 864 ha. The amount of urban land increased from 11% (in 1960) to 344% in 2005. Similarly, the growth of landfill/bare soils category was about 256% in the same period. Much of the city's rapid growth in population has been accommodated in informal settlements with little attempt being made to limit the risk of environmental impairments. The study quantified the patterns of land use/cover change for the last 45 years for Dhaka Metropolitan that forms valuable resources for urban planners and decision makers to devise sustainable land use and environmental planning.

Projecting optimal land-use and -management strategies under population growth and climate change using a coupled ecosystem & land use model framework

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Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the

Land-use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Aleman, Julie C; Blarquez, Olivier; Staver, Carla A

2016-09-01

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R(2)  = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Land use change and its drivers in Kurt Bahir wetland, north-western ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The effects of land-use change on ecosystem services in Kurt Bahir wetland were investigated during 2013 to 2014 using LANDSAT satellite images from 1973, 1986, 2002 and 2013 to identify and map changes in land-use classes over time. To understand perceptions of changes in ecosystem services that resulted from ...

Resource-Mediated Indirect Effects of Grassland Management on Arthropod Diversity

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Simons, Nadja K.; Gossner, Martin M.; Lewinsohn, Thomas M.; Boch, Steffen; Lange, Markus; Müller, Jörg; Pašalić, Esther; Socher, Stephanie A.; Türke, Manfred; Fischer, Markus; Weisser, Wolfgang W.

2014-01-01

Intensive land use is a driving force for biodiversity decline in many ecosystems. In semi-natural grasslands, land-use activities such as mowing, grazing and fertilization affect the diversity of plants and arthropods, but the combined effects of different drivers and the chain of effects are largely unknown. In this study we used structural equation modelling to analyse how the arthropod communities in managed grasslands respond to land use and whether these responses are mediated through changes in resource diversity or resource quantity (biomass). Plants were considered resources for herbivores which themselves were considered resources for predators. Plant and arthropod (herbivores and predators) communities were sampled on 141 meadows, pastures and mown pastures within three regions in Germany in 2008 and 2009. Increasing land-use intensity generally increased plant biomass and decreased plant diversity, mainly through increasing fertilization. Herbivore diversity decreased together with plant diversity but showed no response to changes in plant biomass. Hence, land-use effects on herbivore diversity were mediated through resource diversity rather than quantity. Land-use effects on predator diversity were mediated by both herbivore diversity (resource diversity) and herbivore quantity (herbivore biomass), but indirect effects through resource quantity were stronger. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing both direct and indirect effects of land-use intensity and mode on different trophic levels. In addition to the overall effects, there were subtle differences between the different regions, pointing to the importance of regional land-use specificities. Our study underlines the commonly observed strong effect of grassland land use on biodiversity. It also highlights that mechanistic approaches help us to understand how different land-use modes affect biodiversity. PMID:25188423

Effect of Technology Driven Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Hydroclimate

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Arritt, R. W.; Sines, T. R.; Groisman, P. Y.; Gelder, B. K.

2017-12-01

During the mid-20th century motorized equipment replaced work animals in the central U.S. This led to a 95% decrease in farmland for producing oats, which had mostly been used as feed for horses. Much of this land was converted to more profitable crops such as soybeans and maize. The same period also saw a strong shift of the central U.S. precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavier events. Was this a coincidence, or is there a causal relationship? We investigate possible connections between this technology-driven land use change and regional hydroclimate by performing multi-decadal simulations over the central U.S. using the WRF-ARW regional climate model coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM 4.5). Cropland planted in maize, soybean, winter wheat, small grains (which includes oats and spring wheat), and other C3 and C4 crops were reconstructed on a decade by decade basis from 1940-2010 using county-level crop data. These crop distributions were used as land surface boundary conditions for two multi-decadal regional climate simulations, one with 1940s land use and another with modern (circa 2010) land use. Modern land use produced a shift in the simulated daily precipitation intensity spectrum toward heavy events, with higher frequencies of heavy precipitation amounts and lower frequencies of light amounts compared to 1940s land use. The results suggest that replacement of work animals by mechanized transport led to land use changes that produced about 10-30% of the observed trend toward more intense precipitation over the central United States. We therefore recommend that policy- and technology-driven changes in crop type be taken into account when projecting future climate and water resources.

Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Resources in the Taoer River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianwei Liu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The changes of both climate and land use/cover have some impacts on water resources. In the Taoer River basin, these changes have directly influenced the land use pattern adjustment, wetland protection, connections between rivers and reservoirs, local social and economic development, and so forth. Therefore, studying the impacts of climate and land use/cover changes is of great practical significance. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model is employed in this study. With historical measured runoff data and remote sensing maps of annual land use classifications, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the runoff of the Taoer River. Based on the land use/cover classifications of 1990, 2000, and 2010, we analyzed the land use/cover change over the last 30 years and the contribution coefficient of farmland, woodland, grassland, and other major land use types to the runoff. This study can provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and the adjustment of land use structure for decision makers.

Land use changes assessment using spatial data: Case study in Cong river basin - Thai Nguyen City - Viet Nam

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Nguyen, Hieu

Land use changes are being interested in most countries, especially in developing countries. Because land use changes always impacts on sustainable development not only in a region or a country but also in whole the world. Viet Nam is a developing country, in the last 10 years, land uses have rapidly changed in most provinces. Many of agriculture areas, forest areas have changed for various purposes as urban sprawl, establishing new industrial parks, public areas, mining and other land uses relate to human activities or economic function associated with a specific piece of land. Beside efficiencies of economic and society, then environment issues have been threatening serious pollution, are from land use changes. Remote sensing images application on studying land use changes, has been done in many countries around the world, and has brought high efficiencies. However, this application is still very new and limited in Viet Nam due to lacking of materials, tools, experts of remote sensing. This study used spatial data as Landsat TM images, SPOT5 images and land use planning maps to rapidly assess on happenings of land uses in the period 2000 -2010 in Cong river basin (Thai Nguyen City, Viet Nam), and to forecast the changes of land uses in the period 2010 - 2020. The results had a good accuracy and to be important references for authorities, policy makers in local land use.

Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land use harmonization, radiative kernels, and reanalysis

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Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Wang, Zhuosen; Schaaf, Crystal; He, Tao

2014-12-01

Widespread anthropogenic land cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion has been partially offset by cooling from elevated albedo, but considerable uncertainty remains partly because of uncertainty in model treatments of albedo. This study incorporates a new spatially and temporally explicit, land cover specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product) to provide more precise, observationally derived estimates of albedo impacts from anthropogenic land cover change with a complete range of data set specific uncertainty. The mean annual global albedo increase due to land cover change during 1700-2005 was estimated as 0.00106 ± 0.00008 (mean ± standard deviation), mainly driven by snow exposure due to land cover transitions from natural vegetation to agriculture. This translates to a top-of-atmosphere radiative cooling of -0.15 ± 0.1 W m-2 (mean ± standard deviation). Our estimate was in the middle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report range of -0.05 to -0.25 W m-2 and incorporates variability in albedo within land cover classes.

Synthesis in land change science

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Magliocca, Nicholas R.; Rudel, Thomas K.; Verburg, Peter H.

2015-01-01

Global and regional economic and environmental changes are increasingly influencing local land-use, livelihoods, and ecosystems. At the same time, cumulative local land changes are driving global and regional changes in biodiversity and the environment. To understand the causes and consequences...... of these changes, land change science (LCS) draws on a wide array synthetic and meta-study techniques to generate global and regional knowledge from local case studies of land change. Here, we review the characteristics and applications of synthesis methods in LCS and assess the current state of synthetic research...... based on a meta-analysis of synthesis studies from 1995 to 2012. Publication of synthesis research is accelerating, with a clear trend toward increasingly sophisticated and quantitative methods, including meta-analysis. Detailed trends in synthesis objectives, methods, and land change phenomena...

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S model under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

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Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.