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Sample records for indicating good model

  1. Unifying distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators for hydrologic model assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Qinbo; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Chen, Xi; Schulte, Achim

    2014-05-01

    The goodness-of-fit indicator, i.e. efficiency criterion, is very important for model calibration. However, recently the knowledge about the goodness-of-fit indicators is all empirical and lacks a theoretical support. Based on the likelihood theory, a unified distance-based goodness-of-fit indicator termed BC-GED model is proposed, which uses the Box-Cox (BC) transformation to remove the heteroscedasticity of model errors and the generalized error distribution (GED) with zero-mean to fit the distribution of model errors after BC. The BC-GED model can unify all recent distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators, and reveals the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) that are widely used goodness-of-fit indicators imply statistic assumptions that the model errors follow the Gaussian distribution and the Laplace distribution with zero-mean, respectively. The empirical knowledge about goodness-of-fit indicators can be also easily interpreted by BC-GED model, e.g. the sensitivity to high flow of the goodness-of-fit indicators with large power of model errors results from the low probability of large model error in the assumed distribution of these indicators. In order to assess the effect of the parameters (i.e. the BC transformation parameter λ and the GED kurtosis coefficient β also termed the power of model errors) of BC-GED model on hydrologic model calibration, six cases of BC-GED model were applied in Baocun watershed (East China) with SWAT-WB-VSA model. Comparison of the inferred model parameters and model simulation results among the six indicators demonstrates these indicators can be clearly separated two classes by the GED kurtosis β: β >1 and β ≤ 1. SWAT-WB-VSA calibrated by the class β >1 of distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators captures high flow very well and mimics the baseflow very badly, but it calibrated by the class β ≤ 1 mimics the baseflow very well, because first the larger value of β, the greater emphasis is put on

  2. Development of the information model for consumer assessment of key quality indicators by goods labelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshkina, S.; Ostrinskaya, L.

    2018-04-01

    An information model for “key” quality indicators of goods has been developed. This model is based on the assessment of f standardization existing state and the product labeling quality. According to the authors’ opinion, the proposed “key” indicators are the most significant for purchasing decision making. Customers will be able to use this model through their mobile technical devices. The developed model allows to decompose existing processes in data flows and to reveal the levels of possible architectural solutions. In-depth analysis of the presented information model decomposition levels will allow determining the stages of its improvement and to reveal additional indicators of the goods quality that are of interest to customers in the further research. Examining the architectural solutions for the customer’s information environment functioning when integrating existing databases will allow us to determine the boundaries of the model flexibility and customizability.

  3. Earthworms – good indicators for forest disturbance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YAHYA KOOCH

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In temperate forests, formation of canopy gaps by windthrow is a characteristic natural disturbance event. Little work has been done on the effects of canopy gaps on soil properties and fauna, especially earthworms as ecosystem engineers. We conducted a study to examine the reaction of earthworms (density/biomass and different soil properties (i.e., soil moisture, pH, organic matter, total N, and available Ca to different canopy gap areas in 25-ha areas of Liresar district beech forest located in a temperate forest of Mazandaran province in the north of Iran. Soil samples were taken at 0-15, 15-30 and 30-45 cm depths from gap center, gap edge and closed canopy using core soil sampler with 81 cm2 cross section. The earthworms were collected simultaneously with the soil sampling by hand sorting method. Our study supports that the canopy gap will create a mosaic of environmental conditions. Earthworm's density and biomass tended to be higher in small canopy gaps compared with the other canopy gap areas. Earthworm's population showed decreasing trend from closed canopy to disturbed sites (gap edge and gap center. The top soil was more appropriate to presence of earthworms although ecological groups have occupied different soil layers. As a conclusion, earthworms can be introduced as good bio-indicator of environmental changes that occur by disturbance.

  4. Management Documentation: Indicators & Good Practice at Cultural Heritage Places

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eppich, R.; Garcia Grinda, J. L.

    2015-08-01

    Documentation for cultural heritage places usually refers to describing the physical attributes, surrounding context, condition or environment; most of the time with images, graphics, maps or digital 3D models in their various forms with supporting textural information. Just as important as this type of information is the documentation of managerial attributes. How do managers of cultural heritage places collect information related to financial or economic well-being? How are data collected over time measured, and what are significant indicators for improvement? What quality of indicator is good enough? Good management of cultural heritage places is essential for conservation longevity, preservation of values and enjoyment by the public. But how is management documented? The paper will describe the research methodology, selection and description of attributes or indicators related to good management practice. It will describe the criteria for indicator selection and why they are important, how and when they are collected, by whom, and the difficulties in obtaining this information. As importantly it will describe how this type of documentation directly contributes to improving conservation practice. Good practice summaries will be presented that highlight this type of documentation including Pamplona and Ávila, Spain and Valletta, Malta. Conclusions are drawn with preliminary recommendations for improvement of this important aspect of documentation. Documentation of this nature is not typical and presents a unique challenge to collect, measure and communicate easily. However, it is an essential category that is often ignored yet absolutely essential in order to conserve cultural heritage places.

  5. [Identifying indicators of good practice in clinical and healthcare management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bermúdez Tamayo, C; Olry de Labry Lima, A; García Mochón, L

    2018-03-06

    To identify good practices in order to develop and implement indicators of health outcomes for clinical and healthcare management, as well as the characteristics for an indicator to be considered adequate. A scoping review was performed, with the following phases: 1) Search and identification of bibliography. 2) Selection of relevant documents. Including those studies that discussed issues related to good practices for the use of health indicators in the management field. Those published in a language other than English or Spanish or before 2006 were excluded. 3) Analysis and extraction of information. 4) Consultation with stakeholders, using a qualitative methodology through Concept Mapping, with the participation of 40 experts (decision-makers, scientific societies, and health professionals). The data collection process included an inductive and structured procedure, with prioritisation of ideas grouped into clusters, according to feasibility and importance criteria (0-10 scale). Good practices identified 2 levels: 1) macro-management: Define a framework for the evaluation of indicators and establish a benchmark of indicators. 2) meso-management: Establish indicators according to evidence and expert consensus, taking into account priority areas and topics, testing before final use, and communicate results adequately. The characteristics of a suitable indicator are: 1) Approach of an important issue, 2) Scientific validity, 3) Possibility of measurement with reliable data, 4) Meaning of useful and applicable measurement, and 5) Wide scope. The best practices for the use of indicators in clinical and healthcare management can make it easier to monitor performance and accountability, as well as to support the decision-making addressed at the development of initiatives for quality improvement. Copyright © 2018 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Good mentors and role models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Lawrence

    Today, as a teacher and researcher, I look forward to my day ... essential for women, and that it would prove to be more valuable ... mentors, who have been my role models. ... benefit to make the workplace gender friendly by including more.

  7. Can a Single Amphibian Species Be a Good Biodiversity Indicator?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Sewell

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Although amphibians have been widely promoted as indicators of biodiversity and environmental change, rigorous tests are lacking. Here key indicator criteria are distilled from published papers, and a species that has been promoted as a bioindicator, the great crested newt, is tested against them. Although a link was established between the presence of great crested newts and aquatic plant diversity, this was not repeated with the diversity of macroinvertebrates. Equally, amphibians do not meet many of the published criteria of bioindicators. Our research suggests that a suite of indicators, rather than a single species, will usually be required.

  8. Measures of Disadvantage: Is Car Ownership a Good Indicator?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Victoria; Currie, Graham; Stanley, Janet

    2010-01-01

    A need to better understand the multidimensional nature of disadvantage is leading to the adoption of a wider range of measurement variables. One variable now commonly adopted is zero car ownership. This paper challenges the logic of including "not having a car" as an indicator of disadvantage. It argues that this can distort the real picture of…

  9. Learners' Epistemic Criteria for Good Scientific Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pluta, William J.; Chinn, Clark A.; Duncan, Ravit Golan

    2011-01-01

    Epistemic criteria are the standards used to evaluate scientific products (e.g., models, evidence, arguments). In this study, we analyzed epistemic criteria for good models generated by 324 middle-school students. After evaluating a range of scientific models, but before extensive instruction or experience with model-based reasoning practices,…

  10. Conceptual Models Core to Good Design

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Jeff

    2011-01-01

    People make use of software applications in their activities, applying them as tools in carrying out tasks. That this use should be good for people--easy, effective, efficient, and enjoyable--is a principal goal of design. In this book, we present the notion of Conceptual Models, and argue that Conceptual Models are core to achieving good design. From years of helping companies create software applications, we have come to believe that building applications without Conceptual Models is just asking for designs that will be confusing and difficult to learn, remember, and use. We show how Concept

  11. Are biodiversity indices of spontaneous grass covers in olive orchards good indicators of soil degradation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taguas, E. V.; Arroyo, C.; Lora, A.; Guzmán, G.; Vanderlinden, K.; Gómez, J. A.

    2015-03-01

    Spontaneous grass covers are an inexpensive soil erosion control measure in olive orchards. Olive farmers allow grass to grow on sloping terrain to comply with the basic environmental standards derived from the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). However, to date there are very few studies assessing the environmental quality and extent of such covers. In this study, we described and compared the biodiversity indicators associated to herbaceous vegetation in two contrasting olive orchards in order to evaluate its relevance and quality. In addition, biodiversity patterns and their relationships with environmental factors such as soil type and properties, precipitation, topography and soil management were analyzed. Different grass cover biodiversity indices were evaluated in two olive orchard catchments under conventional tillage and no tillage with grass cover, during 3 hydrological years (2011-2013). Seasonal samples of vegetal material and pictures in a permanent grid (4 samples ha-1) were taken to characterize the temporal variations of the number of species, frequency, diversity and transformed Shannon's and Pielou's indices. Sorensen's index obtained in the two olive orchard catchments showed notable differences in composition, probably linked with the different site conditions. The catchment with the best site conditions (deeper soil and higher precipitation), with average annual soil losses over 10 t ha-1 and a more intense management, presented the highest biodiversity indices. In absolute terms, the diversity indices were reasonably high in both catchments, despite the fact that agricultural activity usually severely limits the landscape and the variety of species. Finally, a significantly higher content of organic matter in the first 10 cm of soil was found in the catchment with the worst site conditions, average annual soil losses of 2 t ha-1 and the least intense management. Therefore, the biodiversity indicators associated to weeds were not found to be

  12. Cycling indices for ecosystem models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carney, J.H.; Gardner, R.H.; Mankin, J.B.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1979-01-01

    The study of ecosystems is aided by representing structural and functional groups of organisms or processes as discrete components. A complex compartment model will explicitly map pathways from one compartment to another and specify transfer rates. This quantitative description allows insight into the dynamics of flow of nutrients, toxic chemicals, radionuclides, or energy. Three new indices that calculate compartment-specific probabilities of occurrence and recycling and illustrate the problem of applying these indices to ecosystem models are presented

  13. Hyperspectral imaging of cuttlefish camouflage indicates good color match in the eyes of fish predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiao, Chuan-Chin; Wickiser, J Kenneth; Allen, Justine J; Genter, Brock; Hanlon, Roger T

    2011-05-31

    Camouflage is a widespread phenomenon throughout nature and an important antipredator tactic in natural selection. Many visual predators have keen color perception, and thus camouflage patterns should provide some degree of color matching in addition to other visual factors such as pattern, contrast, and texture. Quantifying camouflage effectiveness in the eyes of the predator is a challenge from the perspectives of both biology and optical imaging technology. Here we take advantage of hyperspectral imaging (HSI), which records full-spectrum light data, to simultaneously visualize color match and pattern match in the spectral and the spatial domains, respectively. Cuttlefish can dynamically camouflage themselves on any natural substrate and, despite their colorblindness, produce body patterns that appear to have high-fidelity color matches to the substrate when viewed directly by humans or with RGB images. Live camouflaged cuttlefish on natural backgrounds were imaged using HSI, and subsequent spectral analysis revealed that most reflectance spectra of individual cuttlefish and substrates were similar, rendering the color match possible. Modeling color vision of potential di- and trichromatic fish predators of cuttlefish corroborated the spectral match analysis and demonstrated that camouflaged cuttlefish show good color match as well as pattern match in the eyes of fish predators. These findings (i) indicate the strong potential of HSI technology to enhance studies of biological coloration and (ii) provide supporting evidence that cuttlefish can produce color-coordinated camouflage on natural substrates despite lacking color vision.

  14. Reflexion on linear regression trip production modelling method for ensuring good model quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suprayitno, Hitapriya; Ratnasari, Vita

    2017-11-01

    Transport Modelling is important. For certain cases, the conventional model still has to be used, in which having a good trip production model is capital. A good model can only be obtained from a good sample. Two of the basic principles of a good sampling is having a sample capable to represent the population characteristics and capable to produce an acceptable error at a certain confidence level. It seems that this principle is not yet quite understood and used in trip production modeling. Therefore, investigating the Trip Production Modelling practice in Indonesia and try to formulate a better modeling method for ensuring the Model Quality is necessary. This research result is presented as follows. Statistics knows a method to calculate span of prediction value at a certain confidence level for linear regression, which is called Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. The common modeling practice uses R2 as the principal quality measure, the sampling practice varies and not always conform to the sampling principles. An experiment indicates that small sample is already capable to give excellent R2 value and sample composition can significantly change the model. Hence, good R2 value, in fact, does not always mean good model quality. These lead to three basic ideas for ensuring good model quality, i.e. reformulating quality measure, calculation procedure, and sampling method. A quality measure is defined as having a good R2 value and a good Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. Calculation procedure must incorporate statistical calculation method and appropriate statistical tests needed. A good sampling method must incorporate random well distributed stratified sampling with a certain minimum number of samples. These three ideas need to be more developed and tested.

  15. Predictive Models, How good are they?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge

    The WAD grading system has been used for more than 20 years by now. It has shown long-term viability, but with strengths and limitations. New bio-psychosocial assessment of the acute whiplash injured subject may provide better prediction of long-term disability and pain. Furthermore, the emerging......-up. It is important to obtain prospective identification of the relevant risk underreported disability could, if we were able to expose these hidden “risk-factors” during our consultations, provide us with better predictive models. New data from large clinical studies will present exciting new genetic risk markers...

  16. An objective framework to test the quality of candidate indicators of good environmental status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana M Queiros

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Large efforts are on-going within the EU to prepare the Marine Strategy Framework Directive’s (MSFD assessment of the environmental status of the European seas. This assessment will only be as good as the indicators chosen to monitor the eleven descriptors of good environmental status (GEnS. An objective and transparent framework to determine whether chosen indicators actually support the aims of this policy is, however, not yet in place. Such frameworks are needed to ensure that the limited resources available to this assessment optimize the likelihood of achieving GEnS within collaborating states. Here, we developed a hypothesis-based protocol to evaluate whether candidate indicators meet quality criteria explicit to the MSFD, which the assessment community aspires to. Eight quality criteria are distilled from existing initiatives, and a testing and scoring protocol for each of them is presented. We exemplify its application in three worked examples, covering indicators for three GEnS descriptors (1, 5 and 6, various habitat components (seaweeds, seagrasses, benthic macrofauna and plankton, and assessment regions (Danish, Lithuanian and UK waters. We argue that this framework provides a necessary, transparent and standardized structure to support the comparison of candidate indicators, and the decision-making process leading to indicator selection. Its application could help identify potential limitations in currently available candidate metrics and, in such cases, help focus the development of more adequate indicators. Use of such standardized approaches will facilitate the sharing of knowledge gained across the MSFD parties despite context-specificity across assessment regions, and support the evidence-based management of European seas.

  17. Review article: what makes a good healthcare quality indicator? A systematic review and validation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Peter; Shepherd, Michael; Wells, Susan; Le Fevre, James; Ameratunga, Shanthi

    2014-04-01

    Indicators measuring aspects of performance to assess quality of care are often chosen arbitrarily. The present study aimed to determine what should be considered when selecting healthcare quality indicators, particularly focusing on the application to emergency medicine. Structured searches of electronic databases were supplemented by website searches of quality of care and benchmarking organisations, citation searches and discussions with experts. Candidate attributes of 'good' healthcare indicators were extracted independently by two authors. The validity of each attribute was independently assessed by 16 experts in quality of care and emergency medicine. Valid and reliable attributes were included in a critical appraisal tool for healthcare quality indicators, which was piloted by emergency medicine specialists. Twenty-three attributes were identified, and all were rated moderate to extremely important by an expert panel. The reliability was high: alpha = 0.98. Twelve existing tools explicitly stated a median (range) of 14 (8-17) attributes. A critical appraisal tool incorporating all the attributes was developed. This was piloted by four emergency medicine specialists who were asked to appraise and rank a set of six candidate indicators. Although using the tool took more time than implicit gestalt decision making: median (interquartile range) 190 (43-352) min versus 17.5 (3-34) min, their rankings changed after using the tool. To inform the appraisal of quality improvement indicators for emergency medicine, a comprehensive list of indicator attributes was identified, validated, developed into a tool and piloted. Although expert consensus is still required, this tool provides an explicit basis for discussions around indicator selection. © 2014 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

  18. Should researchers use single indicators, best indicators, or multiple indicators in structural equation models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayduk Leslie A

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Structural equation modeling developed as a statistical melding of path analysis and factor analysis that obscured a fundamental tension between a factor preference for multiple indicators and path modeling’s openness to fewer indicators. Discussion Multiple indicators hamper theory by unnecessarily restricting the number of modeled latents. Using the few best indicators – possibly even the single best indicator of each latent – encourages development of theoretically sophisticated models. Additional latent variables permit stronger statistical control of potential confounders, and encourage detailed investigation of mediating causal mechanisms. Summary We recommend the use of the few best indicators. One or two indicators are often sufficient, but three indicators may occasionally be helpful. More than three indicators are rarely warranted because additional redundant indicators provide less research benefit than single indicators of additional latent variables. Scales created from multiple indicators can introduce additional problems, and are prone to being less desirable than either single or multiple indicators.

  19. Low expression of a few genes indicates good prognosis in estrogen receptor positive breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buechler Steven

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many breast cancer patients remain free of distant metastasis even without adjuvant chemotherapy. While standard histopathological tests fail to identify these good prognosis patients with adequate precision, analyses of gene expression patterns in primary tumors have resulted in more successful diagnostic tests. These tests use continuous measurements of the mRNA concentrations of numerous genes to determine a risk of metastasis in lymph node negative breast cancer patients with other clinical traits. Methods A survival model is constructed from genes that are both connected with relapse and have expression patterns that define distinct subtypes, suggestive of different cellular states. This in silico study uses publicly available microarray databases generated with Affymetrix GeneChip technology. The genes in our model, as represented by array probes, have distinctive distributions in a patient cohort, consisting of a large normal component of low expression values; and a long right tail of high expression values. The cutoff between low and high expression of a probe is determined from the distribution using the theory of mixture models. The good prognosis group in our model consists of the samples in the low expression component of multiple genes. Results Here, we define a novel test for risk of metastasis in estrogen receptor positive (ER+ breast cancer patients, using four probes that determine distinct subtypes. The good prognosis group in this test, denoted AP4-, consists of the samples with low expression of each of the four probes. Two probes target MKI67, antigen identified by monoclonal antibody Ki-67, one targets CDC6, cell division cycle 6 homolog (S. cerevisiae, and a fourth targets SPAG5, sperm associated antigen 5. The long-term metastasis-free survival probability for samples in AP4- is sufficiently high to render chemotherapy of questionable benefit. Conclusion A breast cancer subtype defined by low

  20. Development and pilot test of a new set of good practice indicators for chronic cancer pain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saturno, P J; Martinez-Nicolas, I; Robles-Garcia, I S; López-Soriano, F; Angel-García, D

    2015-01-01

    Pain is among the most important symptoms in terms of prevalence and cause of distress for cancer patients and their families. However, there is a lack of clearly defined measures of quality pain management to identify problems and monitor changes in improvement initiatives. We built a comprehensive set of evidence-based indicators following a four-step model: (1) review and systematization of existing guidelines to list evidence-based recommendations; (2) review and systematization of existing indicators matching the recommendations; (3) development of new indicators to complete a set of measures for the identified recommendations; and (4) pilot test (in hospital and primary care settings) for feasibility, reliability (kappa), and usefulness for the identification of quality problems using the lot quality acceptance sampling (LQAS) method and estimates of compliance. Twenty-two indicators were eventually pilot tested. Seventeen were feasible in hospitals and 12 in all settings. Feasibility barriers included difficulties in identifying target patients, deficient clinical records and low prevalence of cases for some indicators. Reliability was mostly very good or excellent (k > 0.8). Four indicators, all of them related to medication and prevention of side effects, had acceptable compliance at 75%/40% LQAS level. Other important medication-related indicators (i.e., adjustment to pain intensity, prescription for breakthrough pain) and indicators concerning patient-centred care (i.e., attention to psychological distress and educational needs) had very low compliance, highlighting specific quality gaps. A set of good practice indicators has been built and pilot tested as a feasible, reliable and useful quality monitoring tool, and underscoring particular and important areas for improvement. © 2014 European Pain Federation - EFIC®

  1. Gene family size conservation is a good indicator of evolutionary rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng-Chi; Chen, Chiuan-Jung; Li, Wen-Hsiung; Chuang, Trees-Juen

    2010-08-01

    The evolution of duplicate genes has been a topic of broad interest. Here, we propose that the conservation of gene family size is a good indicator of the rate of sequence evolution and some other biological properties. By comparing the human-chimpanzee-macaque orthologous gene families with and without family size conservation, we demonstrate that genes with family size conservation evolve more slowly than those without family size conservation. Our results further demonstrate that both family expansion and contraction events may accelerate gene evolution, resulting in elevated evolutionary rates in the genes without family size conservation. In addition, we show that the duplicate genes with family size conservation evolve significantly more slowly than those without family size conservation. Interestingly, the median evolutionary rate of singletons falls in between those of the above two types of duplicate gene families. Our results thus suggest that the controversy on whether duplicate genes evolve more slowly than singletons can be resolved when family size conservation is taken into consideration. Furthermore, we also observe that duplicate genes with family size conservation have the highest level of gene expression/expression breadth, the highest proportion of essential genes, and the lowest gene compactness, followed by singletons and then by duplicate genes without family size conservation. Such a trend accords well with our observations of evolutionary rates. Our results thus point to the importance of family size conservation in the evolution of duplicate genes.

  2. Multiple Indicator Stationary Time Series Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen A.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the propriety and practical advantages of specifying multivariate time series models in the context of structural equation modeling for time series and longitudinal panel data. For time series data, the multiple indicator model specification improves on classical time series analysis. For panel data, the multiple indicator model…

  3. Time series models of environmental exposures: Good predictions or good understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian G; Stephen, Dimity; Huang, Cunrui; Wolkewitz, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Time series data are popular in environmental epidemiology as they make use of the natural experiment of how changes in exposure over time might impact on disease. Many published time series papers have used parameter-heavy models that fully explained the second order patterns in disease to give residuals that have no short-term autocorrelation or seasonality. This is often achieved by including predictors of past disease counts (autoregression) or seasonal splines with many degrees of freedom. These approaches give great residuals, but add little to our understanding of cause and effect. We argue that modelling approaches should rely more on good epidemiology and less on statistical tests. This includes thinking about causal pathways, making potential confounders explicit, fitting a limited number of models, and not over-fitting at the cost of under-estimating the true association between exposure and disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Basic model of quality and good practices in neonatal radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, Janine H.; Goulart, Juliana M.; Lykawka, Rochelle; Bacelar, Alexandre

    2016-01-01

    Neonatal chest radiographs were evaluated and 3 variables were analyzed: collimation, positioning and presence of artifacts. This study is a pilot for develop a model of good practices in radiology, which is in development phase. The index of analyzed radiographs considered inadequate is expressive and it shows the need for a model that may be part of an optimization program to medical exposures. (author)

  5. Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    The article provides an overview of goodness-of-fit assessment methods for item response theory (IRT) models. It is now possible to obtain accurate "p"-values of the overall fit of the model if bivariate information statistics are used. Several alternative approaches are described. As the validity of inferences drawn on the fitted model…

  6. Direct detection of male quality can facilitate the evolution of female choosiness and indicators of good genes: Evolution across a continuum of indicator mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhole, Sumit; Stern, Caitlin A; Servedio, Maria R

    2018-04-01

    The evolution of mating displays as indicators of male quality has been the subject of extensive theoretical and empirical research for over four decades. Research has also addressed the evolution of female mate choice favoring such indicators. Yet, much debate still exists about whether displays can evolve through the indirect benefits of female mate choice. Here, we use a population genetic model to investigate how the extent to which females can directly detect male quality influences the evolution of female choosiness and male displays. We use a continuum framework that incorporates indicator mechanisms that are traditionally modeled separately. Counter to intuition, we find that intermediate levels of direct detection of male quality can facilitate, rather than impede, the evolution of female choosiness and male displays in broad regions of this continuum. We examine how this evolution is driven by selective forces on genetic quality and on the display, and find that direct detection of male quality results in stronger indirect selection favoring female choosiness. Our results imply that displays maybe more likely to evolve when female choosiness has already evolved to discriminate perceptible forms of male quality. They also highlight the importance of considering general female choosiness, as well as preference, in studies of "good genes." © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  7. Are Soft Short Tests Good Indicators of Internal Li-ion Cell Defects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeevarajan, J.; Chung, J.-S.; Jung, K.; Park, J.

    2013-01-01

    The self discharge test at full state of charge, may not be a good one to detect subtle defects since the li-ion chemistry has the highest self discharge at full state of charge. One should characterize self discharge versus storage time for each cell manufacturer/design to differentiate between normal self discharge and that due to a subtle manufacturing defect. The various soft short test methods indicate that if this test is carried out at full discharge (0% SOC) with all capacity removed (by lowering the current load in a stepwise manner to the same end of discharge voltage), then the cells need to be placed in storage for more than 72 hours to get a good analysis on the presence of subtle defects since it takes more than 72 hours to achieve voltage stabilization. If the cells are to be charged up even to a small percentage (ex. 1%), 72 hours are sufficient to determine issues. However, the pass/fail criteria should be based on a valid OCV decline. Less than 10 mV voltage decline is not a good method to detect subtle defects. As mentioned in the first bullet, self discharge is a competing reaction when a charge is introduced and hence a characterization of the self discharge versus storage time is required to fully correlate voltage decline to a failure due to a subtle defect. Soft short test method cannot be relied on for defect detection because cells with and without voltage decline seemed to have similar defects and characteristics. Screening methods such as internal resistance and capacity as well as a 3-sigma range for OCV, mass and dimensions should be used to screen out outliers. A very critical aspect in the understanding of subtle defects is to carry out destructive analysis of cells from every lot to confirm the quality of production and screen all cells and batteries in a stringent manner to have a high quality set of flight cells. Self Discharge Test: Fully charged cells shall be placed in Open circuit stand for 72 hours (OCV measurement twice a

  8. Vulnerable Derivatives and Good Deal Bounds: A Structural Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murgoci, Agatha

    2013-01-01

    We price vulnerable derivatives -- i.e. derivatives where the counterparty may default. These are basically the derivatives traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Default is modeled in a structural framework. The technique employed for pricing is good deal bounds (GDBs). The method imposes...

  9. A framework for developing urban forest ecosystem services and goods indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cynnamon Dobbs; Francisco J. Escobedo; Wayne C. Zipperer

    2011-01-01

    The social and ecological processes impacting on urban forests have been studied at multiple temporal and spatial scales in order to help us quantify, monitor, and value the ecosystem services that benefit people. Few studies have comprehensively analyzed the full suite of ecosystem services, goods (ESG), and ecosystem disservices provided by an urban forest....

  10. Modeling Chaotic Behavior of Chittagong Stock Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shipra Banik

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock market prediction is an important area of financial forecasting, which attracts great interest to stock buyers and sellers, stock investors, policy makers, applied researchers, and many others who are involved in the capital market. In this paper, a comparative study has been conducted to predict stock index values using soft computing models and time series model. Paying attention to the applied econometric noises because our considered series are time series, we predict Chittagong stock indices for the period from January 1, 2005 to May 5, 2011. We have used well-known models such as, the genetic algorithm (GA model and the adaptive network fuzzy integrated system (ANFIS model as soft computing forecasting models. Very widely used forecasting models in applied time series econometrics, namely, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH model is considered as time series model. Our findings have revealed that the use of soft computing models is more successful than the considered time series model.

  11. Flexible competing risks regression modeling and goodness-of-fit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we consider different approaches for estimation and assessment of covariate effects for the cumulative incidence curve in the competing risks model. The classic approach is to model all cause-specific hazards and then estimate the cumulative incidence curve based on these cause...... models that is easy to fit and contains the Fine-Gray model as a special case. One advantage of this approach is that our regression modeling allows for non-proportional hazards. This leads to a new simple goodness-of-fit procedure for the proportional subdistribution hazards assumption that is very easy...... of the flexible regression models to analyze competing risks data when non-proportionality is present in the data....

  12. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  13. Better, but good enough? Indicators for absolute environmental sustainability in a life cycle perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørn, Anders; Richardson, Katherine

    An increasing focus on sustainability has led to proliferation of the use of environmental indicators to guide various types of decisions, from individual consumer choices to policy making at the national, regional and global scale. Most environmental indicators are relative, meaning that quantif......An increasing focus on sustainability has led to proliferation of the use of environmental indicators to guide various types of decisions, from individual consumer choices to policy making at the national, regional and global scale. Most environmental indicators are relative, meaning...... that quantified environmental interferences of a studied anthropogenic system (a product, a company, a city, etc.) are compared to those of chosen anthropogenic systems of reference. The use of relative indicators can give the impression that societies are moving towards environmental sustainability when...... that society-nature interactions in many cases are environmentally unsustainable and that the level of unsustainability may be increasing over time. A clear rationale therefore exists for developing and using absolute environmental sustainability indicators (AESI) that not only can identify the anthropogenic...

  14. Self-Reported Health among Older Bangladeshis: How Good a Health Indicator Is It?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M. Omar; Barsky, Arthur J.

    2003-01-01

    Purpose: This study examines the value of self-reported health (SRH) as an indicator of underlying health status in a developing country setting. Design and Methods: Logistic regression methods with adjustments for multistage sampling are used to examine the factors associated with SRH in 2,921 men and women aged 50 and older in rural Bangladesh.…

  15. Polymer models with optimal good-solvent behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Adamo, Giuseppe; Pelissetto, Andrea

    2017-11-01

    We consider three different continuum polymer models, which all depend on a tunable parameter r that determines the strength of the excluded-volume interactions. In the first model, chains are obtained by concatenating hard spherocylinders of height b and diameter rb (we call them thick self-avoiding chains). The other two models are generalizations of the tangent hard-sphere and of the Kremer-Grest models. We show that for a specific value r* , all models show optimal behavior: asymptotic long-chain behavior is observed for relatively short chains. For r < r* , instead, the behavior can be parametrized by using the two-parameter model, which also describes the thermal crossover close to the θ point. The bonds of the thick self-avoiding chains cannot cross each other, and therefore the model is suited for the investigation of topological properties and for dynamical studies. Such a model also provides a coarse-grained description of double-stranded DNA, so that we can use our results to discuss under which conditions DNA can be considered as a model good-solvent polymer.

  16. MODELING OF INDICATORS OF LIVESTOCK IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina S. Darda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of livestock in food without dangerous country. The analysis of the dynamics of production indicators waspsmainly livestock products. The problems offorecasting-ing performance of LivestockDevelopment of the Russian Federationon the basis of the a-analytical models ofalignment and connected series.

  17. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  18. Body mass index and waist circumference are not good surrogate indicators of adiposity in psychogeriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camina Martín, M Alicia; De Mateo Silleras, Beatriz; Miján De La Torre, Alberto; Barrera Ortega, Sara; Domínguez Rodríguez, Luis; Redondo Del Río, M Paz

    2016-01-01

    to assess the utility of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as surrogate indicators of adiposity with respect to the total body fat estimated with bioimpedance analysis in psychogeriatric patients. Anthropometric and hand-to-foot bioimpedance measurements were performed according to standard procedures in a sample of 128 psychogeriatric patients (87 males, 41 females). WC cutoffs proposed by the International Diabetes Federation were used to define abdominal obesity. Z-scores of fat and fat-free mass indices (Z-FMI and Z-FFMI) were calculated. Males with WC values below the cutoff were normal weight, and showed normal levels of FM and low FFM (Z-FFMI below 1.5 SD). Males with WC values above the cutoff were overweight, showed high levels of FM (Z-FMI: 1.34 SD) and a slight depletion of FFM (Z-FFMI: -0.59 SD). In females with WC values below the cutoff, BMI was close to 20 kg/m(2) and both FM and FFM were depleted (Z-FMI: -0.7 SD; Z-FFMI: -1.76 SD). In females with WC above the cutoff, the average BMI was 25.6 kg/m(2) , Z-FMI was 0.48 SD, and Z-FFMI was -0.56 SD. Our results indicate that it is necessary to establish age and sex-specific BMI and WC cutoffs, and also highlight the importance of focusing on body composition analysis to ensure an accurate nutritional diagnosis in older-adults and in psychogeriatric patients. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. [The respect of the right to freedom of movement, an indicator of good quality patient management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pothain, Alexandre

    Freedom of movement is at the centre of contradictory challenges for the different people working in psychiatry, faced with a society demanding social regulation and safety, and the desire of institutions to provide high quality care. This freedom, and more globally the respect of patients' civil rights, are an indicator of the expected quality of care. Taking these rights into consideration does not mean neglecting safety, but attempts to put it into perspective. This article presents the clinical case of a patient. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  20. The Meaning of Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Commentary on "Goodness-of-Fit Assessment of Item Response Theory Models"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thissen, David

    2013-01-01

    In this commentary, David Thissen states that "Goodness-of-fit assessment for IRT models is maturing; it has come a long way from zero." Thissen then references prior works on "goodness of fit" in the index of Lord and Novick's (1968) classic text; Yen (1984); Drasgow, Levine, Tsien, Williams, and Mead (1995); Chen and…

  1. MODELLING CHALLENGES TO FORECAST URBAN GOODS DEMAND FOR RAIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio COMI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the new research challenges for forecasting urban goods demand by rail. In fact, the growing interest to find urban logistics solutions for improving city sustainability and liveability, mainly due to the reduction of urban road accessibility and environmental constraints, has pushed to explore solutions alternative to the road. Multimodal urban logistics, based on the use of railway, seem an interesting alternative solution, but it remained mainly at conceptual level. Few studies have explored the factors, that push actors to find competitive such a system with respect to the road, and modelling framework for forecasting the relative demand. Therefore, paper reviews the current literature, investigates the factors involved in choosing such a mode, and finally, recalls a recent modelling framework and hence proposes some advancements that allow to point out the rail transport alternative.

  2. Brand Mentions in Social Media as a Key Performance Indicator in the German Fast Moving Consumer Goods Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Olga AZARKINA; Monyédodo KPOSSA; Erhard LICK

    2014-01-01

    This research aims to explore correlations between consumer-generated social media activity and the level of sales of German brands from the fast moving consumer goods industry. In particular, the objective was to examine whether there is a correlation between the number of brand mentions in social media and the sales of these products. The results indicate that the number of brand mentions and sales correlate positively in relation to products from the food and beverages category while this ...

  3. How Good Is Good: Improved Tracking and Managing of Safety Goals, Performance Indicators, Production Targets and Significant Events Using Learning Curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, Rommey B.; Saull, John W.

    2002-01-01

    We show a new way to track and measure safety and performance using learning curves derived on a mathematical basis. When unusual or abnormal events occur in plants and equipment, the regulator and good management practice requires they be reported, investigated, understood and rectified. In addition to reporting so-called 'significant events', both management and the regulator often set targets for individual and collective performance, which are used for both reward and criticism. For almost completely safe systems, like nuclear power plants, commercial aircraft and chemical facilities, many parameters are tracked and measured. Continuous improvement has to be demonstrated, as well as meeting reduced occurrence rates, which are set as management goals or targets. This process usually takes the form of statistics for availability of plant and equipment, forced or unplanned maintenance outage, loss of safety function, safety or procedural violations, etc. These are often rolled up into a set of so-called 'Performance Indicators' as measures of how well safety and operation is being managed at a given facility. The overall operating standards of an industry are also measured. A whole discipline is formed of tracking, measuring, reporting, managing and understanding the plethora of indicators and data. Decreasing occurrence rates and meeting or exceeding goals are seen and rewarded as virtues. Managers and operators need to know how good is their safety management system that has been adopted and used (and paid for), and whether it can itself be improved. We show the importance of accumulated experience in correctly measuring and tracking the decreasing event and error rates speculating a finite minimum rate. We show that the rate of improvement constitutes a measurable 'learning curve', and the attainment of the goals and targets can be affected by the adopted measures. We examine some of the available data on significant events, reportable occurrences, and loss of

  4. Brand Mentions in Social Media as a Key Performance Indicator in the German Fast Moving Consumer Goods Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga AZARKINA

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to explore correlations between consumer-generated social media activity and the level of sales of German brands from the fast moving consumer goods industry. In particular, the objective was to examine whether there is a correlation between the number of brand mentions in social media and the sales of these products. The results indicate that the number of brand mentions and sales correlate positively in relation to products from the food and beverages category while this is not the case with respect to the non-food product category. Hence, marketers need to promote consumer-generated social media activity particularly for food and beverages.

  5. Good God?!? Lamentations as a model for mourning the loss of the good God.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houck-Loomis, Tiffany

    2012-09-01

    This article will address the devastating psychological and social effects due to the loss of one's primary love-object, namely God in the case of faith communities and religious individuals. By using Melanie Klein's Object Relations Theory (Klein in Envy and gratitude and other works 1946/1963. The Free Press, New York, 1975a) as a way to enter the text of Lamentations, I will articulate an alternative reading that can serve as a model for Pastors and Educators to use when walking with individuals and communities through unspeakable losses. I will argue that Lamentations may be used as a tool for naming confounding depression and anxiety that stems from a damaged introjected object (one's personal God). This tool may provide individuals and communities a framework for placing anger and contempt upon God in order to re-assimilate this loved yet hated object, eventually leading toward healing and restoration of the self.

  6. A Model for Electronic Good Governance in Electronic Learning Sector of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Moghaddasi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite the various models and frameworks on electronic good governance are introduced, the multiple dimensions model of electronic good governance in the field of e-Learning has not been reviewed this subject in a integrated, comprehensive, process-oriented and systematic model. In this article, in order to explain the process of electronic good governance, by a systematic review of the related literature and backgrounds, all factors were identified using meta-synthesis methodology. Then, based on grounded theory methodology and Strauss and Corbin paradigmatic approach, the open, axial and selective coding were conducted. In the following, by using survey method, we determined the importance and priority of all proposed factors. It was also indicated that this research was innovative in the fields of methodology, results and the proposed model which had not been considered in the previous researches. So that, the proposed model resolved the shortcomings of past researches and made it possible for the public sector, private and civil society organizations to consider the process of establishing electronic good governance in e-Learning sector in Iran as a dynamic process.

  7. "Inclusive Working Life" in Norway--experience from "Models of Good Practice" enterprises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lie, Arve

    2008-08-01

    a higher than expected sickness absence rate. This indicates that it is difficult to identify Models of Good Practice enterprises and that they cannot be treated as role model enterprises. Good cooperation with the occupational health service and the empowerment and involvement of the employees is associated with a low sickness absence rate.

  8. An introduction to good practices in cognitive modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heathcote, A.; Brown, S.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Forstmann, B.U.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive modeling can provide important insights into the underlying causes of behavior, but the validity of those insights rests on careful model development and checking. We provide guidelines on five important aspects of the practice of cognitive modeling: parameter recovery, testing selective

  9. What should a 'good' model of the NPP operator contain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bainbridge, L.

    1986-01-01

    Much of human factors design is done without reference to models. A 'scientific' cognitive model contains multi-level goal-oriented top-down processing, in which behaviour choice depends on working memory, mental and environmental constraints, and expected results. Simpler models are more practical for supporting 0 behaviour, or predicting performance limits. Many types of reason make numerical predictions of cognitive behaviour non trivial

  10. Density contrast indicators in cosmological dust models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    contrast, which may or may not be monotonically increasing with time. We also find that monotonic- ity seems to be related to the initial conditions of the model, which may be of potential interest in connection with debates regarding gravitational entropy and the arrow of time. 1. Introduction. An important question in ...

  11. Geographically weighted regression model on poverty indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slamet, I.; Nugroho, N. F. T. A.; Muslich

    2017-12-01

    In this research, we applied geographically weighted regression (GWR) for analyzing the poverty in Central Java. We consider Gaussian Kernel as weighted function. The GWR uses the diagonal matrix resulted from calculating kernel Gaussian function as a weighted function in the regression model. The kernel weights is used to handle spatial effects on the data so that a model can be obtained for each location. The purpose of this paper is to model of poverty percentage data in Central Java province using GWR with Gaussian kernel weighted function and to determine the influencing factors in each regency/city in Central Java province. Based on the research, we obtained geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel weighted function on poverty percentage data in Central Java province. We found that percentage of population working as farmers, population growth rate, percentage of households with regular sanitation, and BPJS beneficiaries are the variables that affect the percentage of poverty in Central Java province. In this research, we found the determination coefficient R2 are 68.64%. There are two categories of district which are influenced by different of significance factors.

  12. How good is an AS-IS model really?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arkılıç, I.G.; Reijers, H.A.; Goverde, R.R.H.M.J.; La Rosa, M.; Soffer, P.

    2013-01-01

    Redesign projects for business processes usually start with analysing and mapping an actual situation within an organization. This step is called "developing an AS-IS business process model". However, many contemporary organizations have invested in developing and sustaining process models of their

  13. Eye-mouth-eye angle as a good indicator of face masculinization, asymmetry, and attractiveness (Homo sapiens).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danel, Dariusz; Pawlowski, Boguslaw

    2007-05-01

    Past research on male facial attractiveness has been limited by the reliance on facialmetric measures that are less than ideal. In particular, some of these measures are face size dependent and show only weak sexual dimorphism, which limits the ability to identify the relationship between masculinization and attractiveness. Here, the authors show that eye-mouth-eye (EME) angle is a quantitative and face size independent trait that is sexually dimorphic and a good indicator of masculinity and face symmetry. Using frontal photographs of female and male faces, the authors first confirmed that the EME angle (measured with the vertex in the middle of the mouth and the arms crossing the centers of pupils) was highly sexually dimorphic. Then, using pictures of young male faces whose attractiveness was assessed on a 7-point scale by young women, the authors showed that attractiveness rate was negatively correlated with EME angle and with the angle asymmetry. The results are compared with those that could be obtained with interpupilary or upper face height measurements. The authors discuss the relationship between attractiveness and both EME angle and its symmetry in the light of evolutionary psychology.

  14. Modeling good research practices--overview: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force--1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro, J Jaime; Briggs, Andrew H; Siebert, Uwe; Kuntz, Karen M

    2012-01-01

    Models--mathematical frameworks that facilitate estimation of the consequences of health care decisions--have become essential tools for health technology assessment. Evolution of the methods since the first ISPOR Modeling Task Force reported in 2003 has led to a new Task Force, jointly convened with the Society for Medical Decision Making, and this series of seven articles presents the updated recommendations for best practices in conceptualizing models; implementing state-transition approaches, discrete event simulations, or dynamic transmission models; and dealing with uncertainty and validating and reporting models transparently. This overview article introduces the work of the Task Force, provides all the recommendations, and discusses some quandaries that require further elucidation. The audience for these articles includes those who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and, indeed, anyone concerned with the use of models to support decision making. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Modeling good research practices--overview: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro, J Jaime; Briggs, Andrew H; Siebert, Uwe; Kuntz, Karen M

    2012-01-01

    Models-mathematical frameworks that facilitate estimation of the consequences of health care decisions-have become essential tools for health technology assessment. Evolution of the methods since the first ISPOR modeling task force reported in 2003 has led to a new task force, jointly convened with the Society for Medical Decision Making, and this series of seven papers presents the updated recommendations for best practices in conceptualizing models; implementing state-transition approaches, discrete event simulations, or dynamic transmission models; dealing with uncertainty; and validating and reporting models transparently. This overview introduces the work of the task force, provides all the recommendations, and discusses some quandaries that require further elucidation. The audience for these papers includes those who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and, indeed, anyone concerned with the use of models to support decision making.

  16. Bovine cysticercosis in slaughtered cattle as an indicator of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and epidemiological risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Gabriel Augusto Marques; Hoppe, Estevam Guilherme Lux; Mathias, Luis Antonio; Martins, Ana Maria Centola Vidal; Mussi, Leila Aparecida; Prata, Luiz Francisco

    2015-03-01

    This study focused on estimating the economic losses resulting from cysticercosis at beef cattle farms that supply an export slaughterhouse located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, and to identify the epidemiological risks factors involved in the disease to ascertain if these farms adopt Good Agricultural Practices (GAP). To this, we used data recorded in 2012 by Brazil's Federal Inspection Service (SIF) on the daily occurrence of the disease, according to the farm from which the animals originated. In addition, the associated risk factors were determined based on a case-control study at 48 farms. Cysticercosis was detected in 2.26% (95% CI 2.2-2.33) of the 190,903 bovines supplied by 556 farms in the following four states: 2.92% (95% CI 2.83-3.03) in São Paulo, 1.81% (95% CI 1.71-1.93) in Minas Gerais, 0.71% (95% CI 0.6-0.82) in Goiás and 1.11% (95% CI 0.79-1.57) in Mato Grosso do Sul, with significant differences in the epidemiological indices of these states. Cysticercosis was detected at 58.45% (95% CI 54.36-62.55) of the farms of this study, representing estimated economic losses of US$312,194.52 for the farmers. Lower prevalence of this disease were found at the farms qualified for exports to the European Union, indicating a statistically significant difference from those not qualified to export to Europe. The access of cattle to non-controlled water sources, as well as sport fishing activities near the farms, was identified as risk factors. Cysticercosis causes considerable losses in Brazil's beef supply chain, with lower prevalence appearing only at farms qualified to export to the European Union. As for the access of cattle to non-controlled water sources, this is an indication that GAP are not implemented by some farms, demonstrating the violation of international agreements by the industry and the farms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Goodness-of-fit tests in mixed models

    KAUST Repository

    Claeskens, Gerda; Hart, Jeffrey D.

    2009-01-01

    Mixed models, with both random and fixed effects, are most often estimated on the assumption that the random effects are normally distributed. In this paper we propose several formal tests of the hypothesis that the random effects and/or errors

  18. Good Governance : negotiated settlemens for FCPA violations as a model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abiola Makinwa

    2013-01-01

    De versnippering van de internationale samenleving vermindert de kans op een overkoepelend model van global governance. Meer waarschijnlijk is het ontstaan van bepaalde processen van bestuur die zich ontwikkelen als reactie op specifieke mondiale vraagstukken. Dit artikel beschrijft het proces van

  19. Goodness-of-fit tests in mixed models

    KAUST Repository

    Claeskens, Gerda

    2009-05-12

    Mixed models, with both random and fixed effects, are most often estimated on the assumption that the random effects are normally distributed. In this paper we propose several formal tests of the hypothesis that the random effects and/or errors are normally distributed. Most of the proposed methods can be extended to generalized linear models where tests for non-normal distributions are of interest. Our tests are nonparametric in the sense that they are designed to detect virtually any alternative to normality. In case of rejection of the null hypothesis, the nonparametric estimation method that is used to construct a test provides an estimator of the alternative distribution. © 2009 Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa.

  20. Dynamics in a nonlinear Keynesian good market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we show how a rich variety of dynamical behaviors can emerge in the standard Keynesian income-expenditure model when a nonlinearity is introduced, both in the cases with and without endogenous government spending. A specific sigmoidal functional form is used for the adjustment mechanism of income with respect to the excess demand, in order to bound the income variation. With the aid of analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the stability conditions, bifurcations, as well as periodic and chaotic dynamics. Globally, we study multistability phenomena, i.e., the coexistence of different kinds of attractors

  1. The importance of information goods abstraction levels for information commerce process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnhoven, Alphonsus B.J.M.

    2002-01-01

    A process model, in the context of e-commerce, is an organized set of activities for the creation, (re-)production, trade and delivery of goods. Electronic commerce studies have created important process models for the trade of physical goods via Internet. These models are not easily suitable for

  2. Linear indices in nonlinear structural equation models : best fitting proper indices and other composites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Henseler, J.

    2011-01-01

    The recent advent of nonlinear structural equation models with indices poses a new challenge to the measurement of scientific constructs. We discuss, exemplify and add to a family of statistical methods aimed at creating linear indices, and compare their suitability in a complex path model with

  3. EnviroAtlas: Providing Nationwide Geospatial Ecosystem Goods and Services Indicators and Indices to Inform Decision-Making, Research, and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    EnviroAtlas is a multi-organization effort led by the US Environmental Protection Agency to develop, host and display a large suite of nation-wide geospatial indicators and indices of ecosystem services. This open access tool allows users to view, analyze, and download a wealth o...

  4. Comparing the Goodness of Different Statistical Criteria for Evaluating the Soil Water Infiltration Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mirzaee

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The infiltration process is one of the most important components of the hydrologic cycle. Quantifying the infiltration water into soil is of great importance in watershed management. Prediction of flooding, erosion and pollutant transport all depends on the rate of runoff which is directly affected by the rate of infiltration. Quantification of infiltration water into soil is also necessary to determine the availability of water for crop growth and to estimate the amount of additional water needed for irrigation. Thus, an accurate model is required to estimate infiltration of water into soil. The ability of physical and empirical models in simulation of soil processes is commonly measured through comparisons of simulated and observed values. For these reasons, a large variety of indices have been proposed and used over the years in comparison of infiltration water into soil models. Among the proposed indices, some are absolute criteria such as the widely used root mean square error (RMSE, while others are relative criteria (i.e. normalized such as the Nash and Sutcliffe (1970 efficiency criterion (NSE. Selecting and using appropriate statistical criteria to evaluate and interpretation of the results for infiltration water into soil models is essential because each of the used criteria focus on specific types of errors. Also, descriptions of various goodness of fit indices or indicators including their advantages and shortcomings, and rigorous discussions on the suitability of each index are very important. The objective of this study is to compare the goodness of different statistical criteria to evaluate infiltration of water into soil models. Comparison techniques were considered to define the best models: coefficient of determination (R2, root mean square error (RMSE, efficiency criteria (NSEI and modified forms (such as NSEjI, NSESQRTI, NSElnI and NSEiI. Comparatively little work has been carried out on the meaning and

  5. Development of good modelling practice for phsiologically based pharmacokinetic models for use in risk assessment: The first steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    The increasing use of tissue dosimetry estimated using pharmacokinetic models in chemical risk assessments in multiple countries necessitates the need to develop internationally recognized good modelling practices. These practices would facilitate sharing of models and model eva...

  6. Applying Sustainability and Responsible Investment on Islamic Equity Investment: An Analysis of FTSE Shariah and FTSE4GOOD Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Rizki, Reza

    2015-01-01

    2015 dissertation for MSc Islamic Banking and Finance. Selected by academic staff as a good example of a masters level dissertation. \\ud \\ud Shariah-compliant Investment and Sustainability Responsible Investment (SRI) are the slternative asset classes and they are growing rapidly leaving their counterparts behind. Nonetheless, there are some criticisms against the screening criteria which are applied by Islamic equity investment because they exclude the environment, social and human rights is...

  7. An evolutionary model of cooperation, fairness and altruistic punishment in public good games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzer, Moritz; Sornette, Didier

    2013-01-01

    We identify and explain the mechanisms that account for the emergence of fairness preferences and altruistic punishment in voluntary contribution mechanisms by combining an evolutionary perspective together with an expected utility model. We aim at filling a gap between the literature on the theory of evolution applied to cooperation and punishment, and the empirical findings from experimental economics. The approach is motivated by previous findings on other-regarding behavior, the co-evolution of culture, genes and social norms, as well as bounded rationality. Our first result reveals the emergence of two distinct evolutionary regimes that force agents to converge either to a defection state or to a state of coordination, depending on the predominant set of self- or other-regarding preferences. Our second result indicates that subjects in laboratory experiments of public goods games with punishment coordinate and punish defectors as a result of an aversion against disadvantageous inequitable outcomes. Our third finding identifies disadvantageous inequity aversion as evolutionary dominant and stable in a heterogeneous population of agents endowed initially only with purely self-regarding preferences. We validate our model using previously obtained results from three independently conducted experiments of public goods games with punishment.

  8. An evolutionary model of cooperation, fairness and altruistic punishment in public good games.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz Hetzer

    Full Text Available We identify and explain the mechanisms that account for the emergence of fairness preferences and altruistic punishment in voluntary contribution mechanisms by combining an evolutionary perspective together with an expected utility model. We aim at filling a gap between the literature on the theory of evolution applied to cooperation and punishment, and the empirical findings from experimental economics. The approach is motivated by previous findings on other-regarding behavior, the co-evolution of culture, genes and social norms, as well as bounded rationality. Our first result reveals the emergence of two distinct evolutionary regimes that force agents to converge either to a defection state or to a state of coordination, depending on the predominant set of self- or other-regarding preferences. Our second result indicates that subjects in laboratory experiments of public goods games with punishment coordinate and punish defectors as a result of an aversion against disadvantageous inequitable outcomes. Our third finding identifies disadvantageous inequity aversion as evolutionary dominant and stable in a heterogeneous population of agents endowed initially only with purely self-regarding preferences. We validate our model using previously obtained results from three independently conducted experiments of public goods games with punishment.

  9. Coupled Oscillator Model of the Business Cycle withFluctuating Goods Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Y.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Iyetomi, H.; Ogimoto, K.; Souma, W.; Yoshikawa, H.

    The sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle in the Indices of Industrial Production data is an example of synchronization. The stability of this synchronization under a shock, e.g., fluctuation of supply or demand, is a matter of interest in physics and economics. We consider an economic system made up of industry sectors and goods markets in order to analyze the sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle. A coupled oscillator model that exhibits synchronization is developed based on the Kuramoto model with inertia by adding goods markets, and analytic solutions of the stationary state and the coupling strength are obtained. We simulate the effects on synchronization of a sectoral shock for systems with different price elasticities and the coupling strengths. Synchronization is reproduced as an equilibrium solution in a nearest neighbor graph. Analysis of the order parameters shows that the synchronization is stable for a finite elasticity, whereas the synchronization is broken and the oscillators behave like a giant oscillator with a certain frequency additional to the common frequency for zero elasticity.

  10. An improved public goods game model with reputation effect on the spatial lattices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianwei; Ding, Shuai; Fan, Wenjuan; Wang, Hao

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The reputation effect is added into the spatial public goods game model. • The individual utility is calculated as a combination of payoff and reputation. • The individual reputation will be adaptively modified as the system evolves. • The larger the reputation factor, the higher the cooperation level. - Abstract: How to model the evolution of cooperation within the population is an important and interdisciplinary issue across the academia. In this paper, we propose an improved public goods game model with reputation effect on spatial lattices to investigate the evolution of cooperation regarding the allocation of public resources. In our model, we modify the individual utility or fitness as a product of the present payoff and reputation-related power function, and strategy update adopts a Fermi-like probability function during the game evolution. Meanwhile, for an interaction between a pair of partners, the reputation of a cooperative agent will be accrued beyond two units, but the defective player will decrease his reputation by one unit. Extensive Monte Carlo numerical simulations indicate the introduction of reputation will foster the formation of cooperative clusters, and greatly enhance the level of public cooperation on the spatial lattices. The larger reputation factor leads to the higher cooperation level since the reputation effect will be enormously embedded into the utility evaluation under this scenario. The current results are vastly beneficial to understand the persistence and emergence of cooperation among many natural, social and synthetic systems, and also provide some useful suggestions to devise the feasible social governance measures and modes for the public resources or affairs.

  11. Sensitivity of Fit Indices to Misspecification in Growth Curve Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; West, Stephen G.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated the sensitivity of fit indices to model misspecification in within-individual covariance structure, between-individual covariance structure, and marginal mean structure in growth curve models. Five commonly used fit indices were examined, including the likelihood ratio test statistic, root mean square error of…

  12. STIMULATION AND GOOD MANAGEMENT OF FOOD PRODUCTION-A MOST IMPORTANT INDICATOR FOR A CONSTANT REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Vangjeli

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available “The national economic development is based on the sustainable development of the regions of the country”. Thisconfirmation is visible in the paper presented. The paper is focused on development of the agricultural sector region ofKorca mainly in the traditional farming plants of the region, and the enforcing the food-processing industry. In thepaper, it is presented the present situation of food-processing industry in the region of Korca, and the further, it isgiven the situation in conservation of vegetables, as part of the a food-processing industry. This, because of the factthat Korca has had a good tradition in cultivating traditional vegetables. The papers brings new values some of whichare :• The focus on an important sector of the economic development of the district of Korce such as the agro-elaboratinindustry.• The full treatment of the present situation of this industry in the region of Korce.• The focus on the consumer demands of the region for canned vegetable products.• The picked up conclusions will serve as a firm basement for further research work in this field.

  13. On a quest for good process models : the cross-connectivity metric

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Reijers, H.A.; Mendling, J.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Cardoso, J.; Bellahsène, Z.; Léonard, M.

    2008-01-01

    Business process modeling is an important corporate activity, but the understanding of what constitutes good process models is rather limited. In this paper, we turn to the cognitive dimensions framework and identify the understanding of the structural relationship between any pair of model elements

  14. HIF1-alpha overexpression indicates a good prognosis in early stage squamous cell carcinomas of the oral floor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joos Ulrich

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hypoxia-inducible factor 1 (HIF-1 is a transcription factor, which plays a central role in biologic processes under hypoxic conditions, especially concerning tumour angiogenesis. HIF-1α is the relevant, oxygen-dependent subunit and its overexpression has been associated with a poor prognosis in a variety of malignant tumours. Therefore, HIF-1α expression in early stage oral carcinomas was evaluated in relation to established clinico-pathological features in order to determine its value as a prognostic marker. Methods 85 patients with histologically proven surgically treated T1/2 squamous cell carcinoma (SCC of the oral floor were eligible for the study. Tumor specimens were investigated by means of tissue micro arrays (TMAs and immunohistochemistry for the expression of HIF-1. Correlations between clinical features and the expression of HIF-1 were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank tests and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results HIF-1α was frequently overexpressed in a probably non-hypoxia related fashion. The expression of HIF-1α was related with a significantly improved 5-year survival rate (p Conclusion HIF-1α overexpression is an indicator of favourable prognosis in T1 and T2 SCC of the oral floor. Node negative patients lacking HIF-1α expression may therefore be considered for adjuvant radiotherapy.

  15. Can citizen science produce good science? Testing the OPAL Air Survey methodology, using lichens as indicators of nitrogenous pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tregidgo, Daniel J.; West, Sarah E.; Ashmore, Mike R.

    2013-01-01

    Citizen science is having increasing influence on environmental monitoring as its advantages are becoming recognised. However methodologies are often simplified to make them accessible to citizen scientists. We tested whether a recent citizen science survey (the OPAL Air Survey) could detect trends in lichen community composition over transects away from roads. We hypothesised that the abundance of nitrophilic lichens would decrease with distance from the road, while that of nitrophobic lichens would increase. The hypothesised changes were detected along strong pollution gradients, but not where the road source was relatively weak, or background pollution relatively high. We conclude that the simplified OPAL methodology can detect large contrasts in nitrogenous pollution, but it may not be able to detect more subtle changes in pollution exposure. Similar studies are needed in conjunction with the ever-growing body of citizen science work to ensure that the limitations of these methods are fully understood. -- Highlights: •We investigated the validity of a simplified citizen science methodology. •Lichen abundance data were used to indicate nitrogenous air pollution. •Significant changes were detected beside busy roads with low background pollution. •The methodology detected major, but not subtle, contrasts in pollution. •Sensitivity of citizen science methods to environmental change must be evaluated. -- A simplified lichen biomonitoring method used for citizen science can detect the impact of nitrogenous air pollution from local roads

  16. HIF1-alpha overexpression indicates a good prognosis in early stage squamous cell carcinomas of the oral floor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fillies, Thomas; Werkmeister, Richard; Diest, Paul J van; Brandt, Burkhard; Joos, Ulrich; Buerger, Horst

    2005-01-01

    Hypoxia-inducible factor 1 (HIF-1) is a transcription factor, which plays a central role in biologic processes under hypoxic conditions, especially concerning tumour angiogenesis. HIF-1α is the relevant, oxygen-dependent subunit and its overexpression has been associated with a poor prognosis in a variety of malignant tumours. Therefore, HIF-1α expression in early stage oral carcinomas was evaluated in relation to established clinico-pathological features in order to determine its value as a prognostic marker. 85 patients with histologically proven surgically treated T1/2 squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the oral floor were eligible for the study. Tumor specimens were investigated by means of tissue micro arrays (TMAs) and immunohistochemistry for the expression of HIF-1. Correlations between clinical features and the expression of HIF-1 were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank tests and multivariate Cox regression analysis. HIF-1α was frequently overexpressed in a probably non-hypoxia related fashion. The expression of HIF-1α was related with a significantly improved 5-year survival rate (p < 0.01) and a significantly increased disease free period (p = 0.01) independent from nodal status and tumour size. In primary node negative T1/T2 SCC of the oral floor, absence of HIF-1α expression specified a subgroup of high-risk patients (p < 0.05). HIF-1α overexpression is an indicator of favourable prognosis in T1 and T2 SCC of the oral floor. Node negative patients lacking HIF-1α expression may therefore be considered for adjuvant radiotherapy

  17. Driver's mental workload prediction model based on physiological indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shengyuan; Tran, Cong Chi; Wei, Yingying; Habiyaremye, Jean Luc

    2017-09-15

    Developing an early warning model to predict the driver's mental workload (MWL) is critical and helpful, especially for new or less experienced drivers. The present study aims to investigate the correlation between new drivers' MWL and their work performance, regarding the number of errors. Additionally, the group method of data handling is used to establish the driver's MWL predictive model based on subjective rating (NASA task load index [NASA-TLX]) and six physiological indices. The results indicate that the NASA-TLX and the number of errors are positively correlated, and the predictive model shows the validity of the proposed model with an R 2 value of 0.745. The proposed model is expected to provide a reference value for the new drivers of their MWL by providing the physiological indices, and the driving lesson plans can be proposed to sustain an appropriate MWL as well as improve the driver's work performance.

  18. Kinetic models for goods exchange in a multi-agent market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brugna, Carlo; Toscani, Giuseppe

    2018-06-01

    In this paper we introduce a system of kinetic equations describing an exchange market consisting of two populations of agents (dealers and speculators) expressing the same preferences for two goods, but applying different strategies in their exchanges. Similarly to the model proposed in Toscani et al. (2013), we describe the trading of the goods by means of some fundamental rules in price theory, in particular by using Cobb-Douglas utility functions for the exchange. The strategy of the speculators is to recover maximal utility from the trade by suitably acting on the percentage of goods which are exchanged. This microscopic description leads to a system of linear Boltzmann-type equations for the probability distributions of the goods on the two populations, in which the post-interaction variables depend from the pre-interaction ones in terms of the mean quantities of the goods present in the market. In this case, it is shown analytically that the strategy of the speculators can drive the price of the two goods towards a zone in which there is a branded utility for their group. Also, according to Toscani et al. (2013), the general system of nonlinear kinetic equations of Boltzmann type for the probability distributions of the goods on the two populations is described in details. Numerical experiments then show how the policy of speculators can modify the final price of goods in this nonlinear setting.

  19. Rupture of the atherosclerotic plaque: does a good animal model exist?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cullen, Paul; Baetta, Roberta; Bellosta, Stefano; Bernini, Franco; Chinetti, Giulia; Cignarella, Andrea; von Eckardstein, Arnold; Exley, Andrew; Goddard, Martin; Hofker, Marten; Hurt-Camejo, Eva; Kanters, Edwin; Kovanen, Petri; Lorkowski, Stefan; McPheat, William; Pentikäinen, Markku; Rauterberg, Jürgen; Ritchie, Andrew; Staels, Bart; Weitkamp, Benedikt; de Winther, Menno

    2003-01-01

    By its very nature, rupture of the atherosclerotic plaque is difficult to study directly in humans. A good animal model would help us not only to understand how rupture occurs but also to design and test treatments to prevent it from happening. However, several difficulties surround existing models

  20. Residuals and the Residual-Based Statistic for Testing Goodness of Fit of Structural Equation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foldnes, Njal; Foss, Tron; Olsson, Ulf Henning

    2012-01-01

    The residuals obtained from fitting a structural equation model are crucial ingredients in obtaining chi-square goodness-of-fit statistics for the model. The authors present a didactic discussion of the residuals, obtaining a geometrical interpretation by recognizing the residuals as the result of oblique projections. This sheds light on the…

  1. Univariate and Multivariate Specification Search Indices in Covariance Structure Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Susan R.

    1993-01-01

    Simulated population data were used to compare relative performances of the modification index and C. Chou and P. M. Bentler's Lagrange multiplier test (a multivariate generalization of a modification index) for four levels of model misspecification. Both indices failed to recover the true model except at the lowest level of misspecification. (SLD)

  2. Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mara, Thierry A.; Tarantola, Stefano

    2012-01-01

    Computational models are intensively used in engineering for risk analysis or prediction of future outcomes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in these purposes. Although several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs only a few are proposed in the literature in the case of dependent inputs. This is explained by the fact that the theoretical framework for the independent case is set and a univocal set of variance-based sensitivity indices is defined. In the present work, we propose a set of variance-based sensitivity indices to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs. These measures allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance. Their definition relies on a specific orthogonalisation of the inputs and ANOVA-representations of the model output. In the applications, we show the interest of the new sensitivity indices for model simplification setting. - Highlights: ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in engineering. ► Several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs. ► We define a set of variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs. ► Inputs mutual contributions are distinguished from their independent contributions. ► Analytical and computational tests are performed and discussed.

  3. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results indicate that the feed forward multilayer perceptron models with back propagation are useful tools to define and prioritize the most effective response variable on water resources mobilization to intervene and solve water problems. The model evaluation shows that the correlation coefficients are more than 96% ...

  4. Performance indicators at Embalse NPP: PSA and safety system indicators based on PSA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fornero, D.A.

    2001-01-01

    Several indicators have been implemented at Embalse NPP. The objective was selecting some representative parameters to evaluate the performance of both the plant and the personnel activities, important for safety. A first set of indicators was defined in accordance with plant technical staff criteria. A complementary set of them was addressed later based on WANO guidance. This report presents the set of indicators used at Embalse NPP, centering the description to related to safety systems performance indicators (SSPI). Some considerations are done about the calculation methods, the need for aligning and updating their values following Embalse Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) development, and some pros and cons of using the PSA model for getting systems indicators. Owing to the fact that PSA ownership by utilities is also a subject of the meeting, some characteristics of the organization of the PSA Project are described at the beginning of the report. At Embalse NPP a Level 1 PSA has been developed under the responsibility of its own plant and with an important contribution from the IAEA. PSA was developed at the site, conducting this to a study strongly interactive with the station staff. (author)

  5. Indicators to support the dynamic evaluation of air quality models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thunis, P.; Clappier, A.

    2014-12-01

    Air quality models are useful tools for the assessment and forecast of pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere. Most of the evaluation process relies on the “operational phase” or in other words the comparison of model results with available measurements which provides insight on the model capability to reproduce measured concentrations for a given application. But one of the key advantages of air quality models lies in their ability to assess the impact of precursor emission reductions on air quality levels. Models are then used in a dynamic mode (i.e. response to a change in a given model input data) for which evaluation of the model performances becomes a challenge. The objective of this work is to propose common indicators and diagrams to facilitate the understanding of model responses to emission changes when models are to be used for policy support. These indicators are shown to be useful to retrieve information on the magnitude of the locally produced impacts of emission reductions on concentrations with respect to the “external to the domain” contribution but also to identify, distinguish and quantify impacts arising from different factors (different precursors). In addition information about the robustness of the model results is provided. As such these indicators might reveal useful as first screening methodology to identify the feasibility of a given action as well as to prioritize the factors on which to act for an increased efficiency. Finally all indicators are made dimensionless to facilitate the comparison of results obtained with different models, different resolutions, or on different geographical areas.

  6. Local and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests in classical measurement error models

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2010-09-14

    We consider functional measurement error models, i.e. models where covariates are measured with error and yet no distributional assumptions are made about the mismeasured variable. We propose and study a score-type local test and an orthogonal series-based, omnibus goodness-of-fit test in this context, where no likelihood function is available or calculated-i.e. all the tests are proposed in the semiparametric model framework. We demonstrate that our tests have optimality properties and computational advantages that are similar to those of the classical score tests in the parametric model framework. The test procedures are applicable to several semiparametric extensions of measurement error models, including when the measurement error distribution is estimated non-parametrically as well as for generalized partially linear models. The performance of the local score-type and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests is demonstrated through simulation studies and analysis of a nutrition data set.

  7. GOODNESS-OF-FIT TEST FOR THE ACCELERATED FAILURE TIME MODEL BASED ON MARTINGALE RESIDUALS

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novák, Petr

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 1 (2013), s. 40-59 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06047 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) SVV 261315/2011 Keywords : accelerated failure time model * survival analysis * goodness-of-fit Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.563, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/SI/novak-goodness-of-fit test for the aft model based on martingale residuals.pdf

  8. Statistical model of planning technological indicators for oil extraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galeyev, R G; Lavushchenko, V P; Sheshnev, A S

    1979-01-01

    The efficiency of the process of oil extraction is determined by the effect of a number of interrelated technological indicators. Analytical expression of the interrelationships of the indicators was represented by an econometric model consisting of a system of linear regression equations. The basic advantage of these models is the possibility of calculating in them different, significantly important interrelationships. This makes it possible to correlate all calculations into a single logically noncontradictory balanced system. The developed model of the technological process of oil extraction makes it possible to significantly facilitate calculation and planning of its basic indicators with regard for system and balance requirements, makes it possible to purposefully generate new variants. In this case because of the optimal distribution of the volumes of geological-technical measures, a decrease in the total outlays for their implementation is achieved. Thus for the Berezovskiy field, this saving was R 150,000.

  9. Comparison of the performances of the CS model coil and the Good Joint SULTAN sample

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wesche, Rainer; Herzog, Robert; Bruzzone, Pierluigi

    2008-01-01

    The relevance of short sample measurements in SULTAN for the prediction of the performance of the coils of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is assessed using the case of the Nb 3 Sn high-field central solenoid model coil (CSMC) conductor, for which both coil performance and short sample SULTAN results (Good Joint (GJ) sample) are available. A least-squares fit procedure, based on a uniform current distribution among the strands and the Durham scaling relations for the field, temperature and strain dependences of the strand J c provides a thermal strain of -0.294% and a degradation factor of approximately 60% for the GJ sample. In the calculation of the voltage along Layer 1A of the CSMC the hoop stress and the variation of the magnetic field in the conductor cross-section were taken into account. The temperature profile, used in the calculations, is based on published temperature profiles and empirical relations between helium inlet and outlet temperatures. A comparison with the GJ results indicates that short sample measurements in SULTAN provide a conservative estimate of the coil performance

  10. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  11. PEMILIHAN MODEL ORGANISASI DAN TERWUJUDNYA PRINSIP-PRINSIP GOOD CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aries Susanty

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Ketidakmampuan penerapan prinsip good corporate governance (GSC didemonstrasikan dalam survei dengan konstrain yang diklasifikasikan dalam 3 konstrain yaitu konstrain internal, konstrain eksternal dan konstrain yang berasal dari struktur pemilik. Konstrain internal meliputi komitmen pemimpin dan pekerja, tingkat pemahaman prinsip GCG oleh pemimpin dan pekerja, keefektifan sistem kontrol internal dan formality trap (implementasi CG hanya untuk memenuhi regulasi. Konstrain internal yang disebutkan berkaitan dengan fungsi internal perusahaan. Sebagai sebuah organisasi bisnis, korporasi tidak mampu mencapai tujuan menerapkan GCG dengan sukses bila tidak didukung elemen internal organisasi. Untuk membentuk fungsi internal diperlukan diagnosa korporasi dengan model organisasi. Dalam hal ini, penulis menggunakan beberapa kriteria untuk memilih model yang paling tepat dari 10 model yang ada. Dari beberapa kriteria dapat disimpulkan bahwa Adaptasi Pascal merupakan model yang paling tepat. Model ini dapat menggambarkan hubungan antara kondisi tiap elemen organisasi dengan kesuksesan implementasi prinsip GCG. Kata kunci: Prinsip Good Corporate Governance, model organisasi             The inability to implement the principles of good corporate governance (GCG as demonstrated in the surveys is due to a number of constraints which can be classified into three; namely internal constraints, external constraints, and constraints coming from the structure of ownership. Internal constraints cover the commitment of leaders and workers, the level of understanding of GCG principles from leaders and workers, good example from leaders, the corporate culture supporting the implementation of GCG principles, effectiveness of internal control system, and formality trap (implementing CG only to meet regulations. The issues in the internal constraints mentioned are related to the internal  functions of the company. As a business organization, corporation is unable

  12. Key performance indicators in hospital based on balanced scorecard model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamed Rahimi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Performance measurement is receiving increasing verification all over the world. Nowadays in a lot of organizations, irrespective of their type or size, performance evaluation is the main concern and a key issue for top administrators. The purpose of this study is to organize suitable key performance indicators (KPIs for hospitals’ performance evaluation based on the balanced scorecard (BSC. Method: This is a mixed method study. In order to identify the hospital’s performance indicators (HPI, first related literature was reviewed and then the experts’ panel and Delphi method were used. In this study, two rounds were needed for the desired level of consensus. The experts rated the importance of the indicators, on a five-point Likert scale. In the consensus calculation, the consensus percentage was calculated by classifying the values 1-3 as not important (0 and 4-5 to (1 as important. Simple additive weighting technique was used to rank the indicators and select hospital’s KPIs. The data were analyzed by Excel 2010 software. Results: About 218 indicators were obtained from a review of selected literature. Through internal expert panel, 77 indicators were selected. Finally, 22 were selected for KPIs of hospitals. Ten indicators were selected in internal process perspective and 5, 4, and 3 indicators in finance, learning and growth, and customer, respectively. Conclusion: This model can be a useful tool for evaluating and comparing the performance of hospitals. However, this model is flexible and can be adjusted according to differences in the target hospitals. This study can be beneficial for hospital administrators and it can help them to change their perspective about performance evaluation.

  13. Three Cs in Measurement Models: Causal Indicators, Composite Indicators, and Covariates

    OpenAIRE

    Bollen, Kenneth A.; Bauldry, Shawn

    2011-01-01

    In the last two decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that we can classify indicators into two categories, effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. This paper argues that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and three types of variables on which a latent variable depends: causal indicators, composite (formative) indicators, and covariates (the “three Cs”). Caus...

  14. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  15. TOWARDS A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF ISLAMIC LEADERSHIP SUCCESSOR'S ATTRIBUTES MODEL AND GOOD GOVERNANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naji Zuhair Alsarhi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to propose a conceptual model that explains the relationship between Islamic leadership successionpersonalityattributes and good governance. The paper sources information from an extensive search of literature to design a conceptual model of Islamic leadership succession (personal attributes & governmental characteristics of Succession and good governance. The model will provide an integration of relationships that will add valuable insights into improved leadership succession theory in the related literature. The paper may assist particularly policy makers and strategists to focus on new possibilities of leadership successors attributes that will lead to improved governance as well as government performance in the world in general, and the Palestine community, in particular.

  16. Wastewater Treatment Model in Washing Stations for Vehicles Transporting Dangerous Goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Muha

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Car washing is a task performed by every passenger carowner more or less frequently, mainly to achieve a finer appearanceof the vehicle rather than for the need for cleanness.In the transport business, the owner's concern is to presentclean and orderly vehicles on the road as a relevant external elementof order, implying good corporate image to customers. Onthe other hand, in dangerous goods transportation there areother reasons requiring special technology of washing, applicableto the transport means used, depending on the change oftype of goods in carriage, the preliminary preparation of a vehicleto load the cargo, or to undergo maintenance.Water applied in the technology of washing collects the residueof goods carried in the vehicle and is polluted to such an extentthat it cannot be discharged into sewers - nor directly into awatercourse - without previous treatment.The paper presents a solution model and a sequence oftechnological procedures involved in an efficient treatment ofthe polluted wastewater in tank wash stations, in which mostlyvehicles carrying ADR goods are washed.

  17. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

  18. Recommendations on the transport of dangerous goods. Model regulations. 11. revised ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods are addressed to governments and to the international organizations concerned with the regulation of the transport of dangerous goods. They have been prepared by the United Nations Economic and Social Council's Committee of Experts on the Transport of Dangerous Goods, and they were first published in 1956 (ST/ECA/43-E/CN.2/170). Pursuant to Resolution 645 G (XXIII) of 26 April 1957 of the Economic and Social Council and subsequent resolutions, they have been regularly amended and updated at succeeding sessions of the Committee of Experts. At its eighteenth session (28 November-7 December 1994), the Committee of Experts considered that reformatting the Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods into Model Regulations that could be directly integrated into all modal national and international regulations would enhance harmonization, facilitate regular up-dating of all legal instruments concerned, and result in overall considerable resource savings for the Governments of the Member States, the United Nations, the specialized agencies and other international organizations. At its nineteenth session (2-10 December 1996), the Committee adopted a first version of the Model Regulations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods, which was annexed to the tenth revised edition of the Recommendations on the Transport of Dangerous Goods. At its twentieth session (7-16 December 1998), the Committee adopted various amendments to the Model Regulations and new provisions including, in particular, packing instructions for individual substances and articles and additional provisions for the transport of radioactive material. The additional provisions concerning the transport of radioactive material were developed in close cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and are based on the 1996 Edition of the IAEA Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material which have been reformatted so as to be

  19. Designing Process Improvement of Finished Good On Time Release and Performance Indicator Tool in Milk Industry Using Business Process Reengineering Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dachyar, M.; Christy, E.

    2014-04-01

    To maintain position as a major milk producer, the Indonesian milk industry should do some business development with the purpose of increasing customer service level. One strategy is to create on time release conditions for finished goods which will be distributed to customers and distributors. To achieve this condition, management information systems of finished goods on time release needs to be improved. The focus of this research is to conduct business process improvement using Business Process Reengineering (BPR). The deliverable key of this study is a comprehensive business strategy which is the solution of the root problems. To achieve the goal, evaluation, reengineering, and improvement of the ERP system are conducted. To visualize the predicted implementation, a simulation model is built by Oracle BPM. The output of this simulation showed that the proposed solution could effectively reduce the process lead time and increase the number of quality releases.

  20. TOURISM, TRADE, EXTERNALITIES, AND PUBLIC GOODS IN A THREE-SECTOR GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to introduce tourism, externalities, and public goods to a small-open growth with endogenous wealth and public goods supply. We develop the model on the basis of the Solow-Uzawa growth model, the neoclassical neoclassical growth theory with externalities, and ideas from tourism economics. The economy consists of three – service, industrial, and public - sectors. The production side is based on the traditional growth theories, while the household behavior is described by an alternative utility function proposed by Zhang. We introduce endogenous land distribution between housing and supply of services. The industrial and service sectors are perfectly competitive subject to the government’s taxation. The public sector is financially supported by the government. We introduce taxes not only on producers, but also on consumers’ incomes from wage, land, and interest of wealth, consumption of goods and services, and housing. We simulate the motion of the national economy and show the existence of a unique stable equilibrium. We carry out comparative dynamic analysis with regard to the rate of interest in the global market, the total productivity of the service sector, tax rate on the service sector, tax rate on consumption of services, human capital, the propensity to consume services, and the impact of public services on the productivity of the industrial sector. The comparative dynamic analysis provides some important insights into the complexity of open economies with endogenous wealth, public goods, and externalities.

  1. Are optical indices good proxies of seasonal changes in carbon fluxes and stress-related physiological status in a beech forest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nestola, E; Scartazza, A; Di Baccio, D; Castagna, A; Ranieri, A; Cammarano, M; Mazzenga, F; Matteucci, G; Calfapietra, C

    2018-01-15

    This study investigates the functionality of a Mediterranean-mountain beech forest in Central Italy using simultaneous determinations of optical measurements, carbon (C) fluxes, leaf eco-physiological and biochemical traits during two growing seasons (2014-2015). Meteorological variables showed significant differences between the two growing seasons, highlighting a heat stress coupled with a reduced water availability in mid-summer 2015. As a result, a different C sink capacity of the forest was observed between the two years of study, due to the differences in stressful conditions and the related plant physiological status. Spectral indices related to vegetation (VIs, classified in structural, chlorophyll and carotenoid indices) were computed at top canopy level and used to track CO 2 fluxes and physiological changes. Optical indices related to structure (EVI 2, RDVI, DVI and MCARI 1) were found to better track Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) variations for 2014, while indices related to chlorophylls (SR red edge, CL red edge, MTCI and DR) provided better results for 2015. This suggests that when environmental conditions are not limiting for forest sink capacity, structural parameters are more strictly connected to C uptake, while under stress conditions indices related to functional features (e.g., chlorophyll content) become more relevant. Chlorophyll indices calculated with red edge bands (SR red edge, NDVI red edge, DR, CL red edge) resulted to be highly correlated with leaf nitrogen content (R 2 >0.70), while weaker, although significant, correlations were found with chlorophyll content. Carotenoid indices (PRI and PSRI) were strongly correlated with both chlorophylls and carotenoids content, suggesting that these indices are good proxies of the shifting pigment composition related to changes in soil moisture, heat stress and senescence. Our work suggests the importance of integrating different methods as a successful approach to understand how changing climatic

  2. Good Modeling Practice for PAT Applications: Propagation of Input Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist; Eliasson Lantz, Anna

    2009-01-01

    The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are evaluated for their usefulness as part of the model-building within Process Analytical Technology applications. A mechanistic model describing a batch cultivation of Streptomyces coelicolor for antibiotic production was used as case study. The input...... compared to the large uncertainty observed in the antibiotic and off-gas CO2 predictions. The output uncertainty was observed to be lower during the exponential growth phase, while higher in the stationary and death phases - meaning the model describes some periods better than others. To understand which...... promising for helping to build reliable mechanistic models and to interpret the model outputs properly. These tools make part of good modeling practice, which can contribute to successful PAT applications for increased process understanding, operation and control purposes. © 2009 American Institute...

  3. Development of stochastic indicator models of lithology, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Robey, T.H.

    1994-01-01

    Indicator geostatistical techniques have been used to produce a number of fully three-dimensional stochastic simulations of large-scale lithologic categories at the Yucca Mountain site. Each realization reproduces the available drill hole data used to condition the simulation. Information is propagated away from each point of observation in accordance with a mathematical model of spatial continuity inferred through soft data taken from published geologic cross sections. Variations among the simulated models collectively represent uncertainty in the lithology at unsampled locations. These stochastic models succeed in capturing many major features of welded-nonwelded lithologic framework of Yucca Mountain. However, contacts between welded and nonwelded rock types for individual simulations appear more complex than suggested by field observation, and a number of probable numerical artifacts exist in these models. Many of the apparent discrepancies between the simulated models and the general geology of Yucca Mountain represent characterization uncertainty, and can be traced to the sparse site data used to condition the simulations. Several vertical stratigraphic columns have been extracted from the three-dimensional stochastic models for use in simplified total-system performance assessment exercises. Simple, manual adjustments are required to eliminate the more obvious simulation artifacts and to impose a secondary set of deterministic geologic features on the overall stratigraphic framework provided by the indictor models

  4. A goods characteristics model of the hedonic ageing equation: evidence from a French marriage bureau

    OpenAIRE

    Sam Cameron; Nicolas Vaillant

    2005-01-01

    The present paper adopts a modelling perspective derived from goods characteristics analysis [Lancaster (1971)] and the general ideas of transactions costs. This is implemented in estimated equations, which feature the age of partner sought as the dependent variable and own age and various other personal characteristics, and characteristics desired in a partner, as the right-hand side variables. The results show a very strong relationship between age and desired partner age. More interestingl...

  5. New methods to measure and model logistics and goods effects by the use of the CLG-DSS Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Jensen, Anders Vestergaard

    2004-01-01

    This paper concerns the assessment and modelling of so-called logistics and goods effects (LG-effects) as part of a wider economic analysis by use of the developed CLG-DSS model. The results presented are based an on-going study, Task 9 about evaluation modelling and decision support systems (DSS......) in the Centre for Logistics and Goods Transport (CLG) 2001-2005 funded by the Danish Council for Technical-Scientific Research (STVF). Within the area of research on logistics the interaction between logistics and transportation is of great relevance. Task 9 and other recent studies have found that several...... companies are taking account of logistics and transport by setting up, among other things, specific departments to improve their handling. Some aspects in the transport sector concerning goods movement and consequences have not so far got the attention they deserve. In CLG Task 9 four LG-effects have been...

  6. Developing a Model for Assessing Public Culture Indicators at Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meisam Latifi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study is aimed to develop a model for assessing public culture at universities and evaluating its indicators at public universities in Mashhad. The research follows an exploratory mixed approach. Research strategies in qualitative and quantitative sections are thematic networks analysis and descriptive- survey method, respectively. In the qualitative section, document analysis and semi-structured interviews with cultural experts are used as research tools. In this section, targeted sampling is carried out. In the quantitative section, a questionnaire which is developed based on the findings of the qualitative section is used as the research tool. Research population of the quantitative section consists of all the students who are admitted to public universities in Mashhad between 2009 and 2012. Sample size was calculated according to Cochran’s formula. Stratified sampling was used to select the sample. The results of the qualitative section led to the identification of 44 basic themes which are referred to as the micro indicators. These themes were clustered into similar groups. Then, 10 organizer themes were identified and recognized as macro indicators. In the next phase, importance factor of each indicator is determined according to the AHP method. The results of the qualitative assessment of indicators at public universities of Mashhad show that the overall cultural index declines during the years the student attends the university. Additionally, the highest correlation exists between national identity and revolutionary identity. The only negative correlations are observed between family and two indicators including social capital and cultural consumption. The results of the present study can be used to assess the state of public culture among university students and also be considered as a basis for assessing cultural planning.

  7. Programming for the Public Good: Ensuring Public Value Through the Cooperative Extension Program Development Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Franz

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Effective Cooperative Extension programs produce important private and public value for individuals, families, businesses, and communities. However, the public value of Extension programming often goes unmeasured and unarticulated. Extension needs to reclaim its role as a key provider of public value for Land-Grant Universities through strong educational programs driven by infusing public value into all elements of the Extension Program Development Model. This article describes Extension’s public value movement including organizational, professional, program, and scholarship development efforts to enhance public good effectiveness articulation. Lessons learned, implications, and next steps for Extension’s public value success through a strong program development model are also shared.

  8. Modelling production-consumption flows of goods in Europe: the trade model within Transtools3

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Jong, Gerard; Tanner, Reto; Rich, Jeppe

    2017-01-01

    on disaggregated micro data and then used as an input variable in the trade model. Using Logsums in a trade model is new in applied large-scale freight models, where previous models have simply relied on the distance (e.g. crow-fly) between zones. This linkage of accessibility to the trade model makes it possible......The paper presents a new model for trade flows in Europe that is integrated with a logistics model for transport chain choice through Logsum variables. Logsums measures accessibility across an entire multi-modal logistical chain, and are calculated from a logistics model that has been estimated...... to evaluate how changes in policies on transport costs and changes in multi-modal networks will influence trade patterns. As an example the paper presents outcomes for a European-wide truck tolling scenario, which showcases to which extent trade is influenced by such a policy. The paper discusses how...

  9. Generic Modelling of Faecal Indicator Organism Concentrations in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl M. Stapleton

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available To meet European Water Framework Directive requirements, data are needed on faecal indicator organism (FIO concentrations in rivers to enable the more heavily polluted to be targeted for remedial action. Due to the paucity of FIO data for the UK, especially under high-flow hydrograph event conditions, there is an urgent need by the policy community for generic models that can accurately predict FIO concentrations, thus informing integrated catchment management programmes. This paper reports the development of regression models to predict base- and high-flow faecal coliform (FC and enterococci (EN concentrations for 153 monitoring points across 14 UK catchments, using land cover, population (human and livestock density and other variables that may affect FIO source strength, transport and die-off. Statistically significant models were developed for both FC and EN, with greater explained variance achieved in the high-flow models. Both land cover and, in particular, population variables are significant predictors of FIO concentrations, with r2 maxima for EN of 0.571 and 0.624, respectively. It is argued that the resulting models can be applied, with confidence, to other UK catchments, both to predict FIO concentrations in unmonitored watercourses and evaluate the likely impact of different land use/stocking level and human population change scenarios.

  10. ARA and ARI imperfect repair models: Estimation, goodness-of-fit and reliability prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toledo, Maria Luíza Guerra de; Freitas, Marta A.; Colosimo, Enrico A.; Gilardoni, Gustavo L.

    2015-01-01

    An appropriate maintenance policy is essential to reduce expenses and risks related to equipment failures. A fundamental aspect to be considered when specifying such policies is to be able to predict the reliability of the systems under study, based on a well fitted model. In this paper, the classes of models Arithmetic Reduction of Age and Arithmetic Reduction of Intensity are explored. Likelihood functions for such models are derived, and a graphical method is proposed for model selection. A real data set involving failures in trucks used by a Brazilian mining is analyzed considering models with different memories. Parameters, namely, shape and scale for Power Law Process, and the efficiency of repair were estimated for the best fitted model. Estimation of model parameters allowed us to derive reliability estimators to predict the behavior of the failure process. These results are a valuable information for the mining company and can be used to support decision making regarding preventive maintenance policy. - Highlights: • Likelihood functions for imperfect repair models are derived. • A goodness-of-fit technique is proposed as a tool for model selection. • Failures in trucks owned by a Brazilian mining are modeled. • Estimation allowed deriving reliability predictors to forecast the future failure process of the trucks

  11. Structure model of energy efficiency indicators and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Li-Ming; Chen, Bai-Sheng; Bor, Yun-Chang; Wu, Yin-Chin

    2007-01-01

    For the purposes of energy conservation and environmental protection, the government of Taiwan has instigated long-term policies to continuously encourage and assist industry in improving the efficiency of energy utilization. While multiple actions have led to practical energy saving to a limited extent, no strong evidence of improvement in energy efficiency was observed from the energy efficiency indicators (EEI) system, according to the annual national energy statistics and survey. A structural analysis of EEI is needed in order to understand the role that energy efficiency plays in the EEI system. This work uses the Taylor series expansion to develop a structure model for EEI at the level of the process sector of industry. The model is developed on the premise that the design parameters of the process are used in comparison with the operational parameters for energy differences. The utilization index of production capability and the variation index of energy utilization are formulated in the model to describe the differences between EEIs. Both qualitative and quantitative methods for the analysis of energy efficiency and energy savings are derived from the model. Through structural analysis, the model showed that, while the performance of EEI is proportional to the process utilization index of production capability, it is possible that energy may develop in a direction opposite to that of EEI. This helps to explain, at least in part, the inconsistency between EEI and energy savings. An energy-intensive steel plant in Taiwan was selected to show the application of the model. The energy utilization efficiency of the plant was evaluated and the amount of energy that had been saved or over-used in the production process was estimated. Some insights gained from the model outcomes are helpful to further enhance energy efficiency in the plant

  12. Modelling a duopoly market of the day-to-day goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yuriy V.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Management of competitiveness of a production enterprise is directly connected with issues of formation of competitive strategies, which requires a thorough analysis of those components of the enterprise activity, which could become the basis of formation and strengthening of stable competitive advantages. The existing models do not take into account the market infrastructure and, that is why, not quite suitable for being used in the practical activity of a firm in a competitive market. The article develops dynamic models of quantitative and pricing duopolies, which describe activity of firms, which deal with production, storing and selling day-to-day goods. The models allow taking into account interdependence of the current state of the market and current production facilities of enterprises. The proposed models give a possibility of a purposeful selection of strategic behaviour of duopolists. The conducted analysis of strategies of competitive firms revealed significant influence of market characteristics upon results of economic activity of firms.

  13. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  14. Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D’Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a new and different wind energy production indicator. • We compute financial profitability of potential wind power sites. • The wind speed process is modeled as an indexed semi-Markov chain. • We check if the wind energy is a good investment with and without incentives. - Abstract: We propose the computation of different wind energy production indicators and financial profitability of potential wind power sites. The computation is performed by modeling the wind speed process as an indexed semi-Markov chain to predict and simulate the wind speed dynamics. We demonstrate that the indexed semi-Markov chain approach enables reproducing the indicators calculated on real data. Two different time horizons of 15 and 30 years are analyzed. In the first case we consider the government incentives on the energy price now present in Italy, while in the second case the incentives have not been taken into account

  15. Permutation tests for goodness-of-fit testing of mathematical models to experimental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fişek, M Hamit; Barlas, Zeynep

    2013-03-01

    This paper presents statistical procedures for improving the goodness-of-fit testing of theoretical models to data obtained from laboratory experiments. We use an experimental study in the expectation states research tradition which has been carried out in the "standardized experimental situation" associated with the program to illustrate the application of our procedures. We briefly review the expectation states research program and the fundamentals of resampling statistics as we develop our procedures in the resampling context. The first procedure we develop is a modification of the chi-square test which has been the primary statistical tool for assessing goodness of fit in the EST research program, but has problems associated with its use. We discuss these problems and suggest a procedure to overcome them. The second procedure we present, the "Average Absolute Deviation" test, is a new test and is proposed as an alternative to the chi square test, as being simpler and more informative. The third and fourth procedures are permutation versions of Jonckheere's test for ordered alternatives, and Kendall's tau(b), a rank order correlation coefficient. The fifth procedure is a new rank order goodness-of-fit test, which we call the "Deviation from Ideal Ranking" index, which we believe may be more useful than other rank order tests for assessing goodness-of-fit of models to experimental data. The application of these procedures to the sample data is illustrated in detail. We then present another laboratory study from an experimental paradigm different from the expectation states paradigm - the "network exchange" paradigm, and describe how our procedures may be applied to this data set. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A comparison of emission calculations using different modeled indicators with 1-year online measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lengers, Bernd; Schiefler, Inga; Büscher, Wolfgang

    2013-12-01

    The overall measurement of farm level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dairy production is not feasible, from either an engineering or administrative point of view. Instead, computational model systems are used to generate emission inventories, demanding a validation by measurement data. This paper tests the GHG calculation of the dairy farm-level optimization model DAIRYDYN, including methane (CH₄) from enteric fermentation and managed manure. The model involves four emission calculation procedures (indicators), differing in the aggregation level of relevant input variables. The corresponding emission factors used by the indicators range from default per cow (activity level) emissions up to emission factors based on feed intake, manure amount, and milk production intensity. For validation of the CH₄ accounting of the model, 1-year CH₄ measurements of an experimental free-stall dairy farm in Germany are compared to model simulation results. An advantage of this interdisciplinary study is given by the correspondence of the model parameterization and simulation horizon with the experimental farm's characteristics and measurement period. The results clarify that modeled emission inventories (2,898, 4,637, 4,247, and 3,600 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1)) lead to more or less good approximations of online measurements (average 3,845 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1) (±275 owing to manure management)) depending on the indicator utilized. The more farm-specific characteristics are used by the GHG indicator; the lower is the bias of the modeled emissions. Results underline that an accurate emission calculation procedure should capture differences in energy intake, owing to milk production intensity as well as manure storage time. Despite the differences between indicator estimates, the deviation of modeled GHGs using detailed indicators in DAIRYDYN from on-farm measurements is relatively low (between -6.4% and 10.5%), compared with findings from the literature.

  17. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2010-01-01

    The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

  18. Effect of an educational intervention in primary care physicians on the compliance of indicators of good clinical practice in the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus [OBTEDIGA project].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal-Pardo, J I; Pérez-Castro, T R; López-Álvarez, X L; Santiago-Pérez, M I; García-Soidán, F J; Muñiz, J

    2013-08-01

    To evaluate the effect of an educational intervention among primary care physicians on several indicators of good clinical practice in diabetes care. Two groups of physicians were randomly assigned to the intervention or control group (IG and CG). Every physician randomly selected two samples of patients from all type 2 diabetic patients aged 40 years and above and diagnosed more than a year ago. Baseline and final information were collected cross-sectionally 12 months apart, in two independent samples of 30 patients per physician. The educational intervention comprised: distribution of educational materials and physicians' specific bench-marking information, an on-line course and three on-site educational workshops on diabetes. External observers collected information directly from the physicians and from the medical records of the patients on personal and family history of disease and on the evolution and treatment of their disease. Baseline information was collected retrospectively in the control group. Intervention group comprised 53 physicians who included a total of 3018 patients in the baseline and final evaluations. CG comprised 50 physicians who included 2868 patients in the same evaluations. Measurement of micro-albuminuria in the last 12 months (OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.4) and foot examination in the last year (OR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1-3.6) were the indicators for which greater improvement was found in the IG. No other indicator considered showed statistically significant improvement between groups. The identification of indicators with very low level of compliance and the implementation of a simple intervention in physicians to correct them is effective in improving the quality of care of diabetic patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Managing Human Factors Related Risks. The Advanced Training Model in Dangerous Goods Transport on Roads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelizaveta Janno

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the methodological essence of dangerous goods (DG training courses for drivers and dangerous goods safety advisers (DGSA. The aim of the research is to advance existing teacher-centered course model in Estonia with learner-centered methods that best suit specific objectives and meet expected learning outcomes, as well as to improve DG training model with the integrated use of interactive teaching methods. The paper presents a qualitative development research strategy based on studies regarding ADR regulations training courses in Estonia as well as on the analysis of teaching methods applied in the professional training of adults. The data is collected in two steps: firstly by implementing questionnaires for consignors/ consignees, freight forwarders carrier companies and drivers, secondly during in-depth interviews/ focus group meeting with DG regulations training companies’ providers. Implementing methodology of qualitative comparison analysis (QCA combination of best suitable teaching methods is identified. After following in-depth interviews and performing a focus group, these combinations are further used as input for developing existing course model with integrated use of blended learning alternatives, where digital media meets with traditional classroom meth-ods. Results of this research contribute coming up with interactive methodological approach within ADR regulations training courses that meet the best trainees’ expectations and fulfills the risk management aim.

  20. Ecotoxicity Effect Indicator for use in the OMNIITOX Base Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Payet, Jerome; Molander, S

    2004-01-01

    for the estimation of the EFI. However none of these methods are found to be adequately robust and/or able to work on the low data input defined by the OMNIITOX Base Model (BM), i.e. a minimum of three acute EC50 values. Given the fact that the BM should be applicable to a significant number of chemicals......, this requirement follows from the current and the most likely future data availability as defined by the proposed EU chemicals policy REACH. In this paper, a theoretical elaboration of effect-based average approaches (arithmetic mean, geometric mean and median) and the non-effect based approach (PNEC) is made...... focusing on their statistical robustness. Considerations about the possibility to relate the effect indicator to damage on the endpoint, the ecosystem, are also included. The effect-based approaches are tested for their robustness in estimating an HC50 in a practical test on datasets from eleven different...

  1. A goodness-of-fit test for occupancy models with correlated within-season revisits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Wilson; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Rodhouse, Thomas J.

    2016-01-01

    Occupancy modeling is important for exploring species distribution patterns and for conservation monitoring. Within this framework, explicit attention is given to species detection probabilities estimated from replicate surveys to sample units. A central assumption is that replicate surveys are independent Bernoulli trials, but this assumption becomes untenable when ecologists serially deploy remote cameras and acoustic recording devices over days and weeks to survey rare and elusive animals. Proposed solutions involve modifying the detection-level component of the model (e.g., first-order Markov covariate). Evaluating whether a model sufficiently accounts for correlation is imperative, but clear guidance for practitioners is lacking. Currently, an omnibus goodnessof- fit test using a chi-square discrepancy measure on unique detection histories is available for occupancy models (MacKenzie and Bailey, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 9, 2004, 300; hereafter, MacKenzie– Bailey test). We propose a join count summary measure adapted from spatial statistics to directly assess correlation after fitting a model. We motivate our work with a dataset of multinight bat call recordings from a pilot study for the North American Bat Monitoring Program. We found in simulations that our join count test was more reliable than the MacKenzie–Bailey test for detecting inadequacy of a model that assumed independence, particularly when serial correlation was low to moderate. A model that included a Markov-structured detection-level covariate produced unbiased occupancy estimates except in the presence of strong serial correlation and a revisit design consisting only of temporal replicates. When applied to two common bat species, our approach illustrates that sophisticated models do not guarantee adequate fit to real data, underscoring the importance of model assessment. Our join count test provides a widely applicable goodness-of-fit test and

  2. Good Models Gone Bad: Quantifying and Predicting Parameter-Induced Climate Model Simulation Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Brandon, S.; Covey, C. C.; Domyancic, D.; Ivanova, D. P.

    2012-12-01

    Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Statistical analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation failures of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2). About 8.5% of our POP2 runs failed for numerical reasons at certain combinations of parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. The SVM classifiers readily predict POP2 failures in an independent validation ensemble, and are subsequently used to determine the causes of the failures via a global sensitivity analysis. Four parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity are identified as the major sources of POP2 failures. Our method can be used to improve the robustness of complex scientific models to parameter perturbations and to better steer UQ ensembles. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and was funded by the Uncertainty Quantification Strategic Initiative Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project at LLNL under project tracking code 10-SI-013 (UCRL LLNL-ABS-569112).

  3. Assessing a brand equity model for fast moving consumer goods in cosmetic and hygiene industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Karbasivar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of ten factors on brand equity. The study provides an assessment using a brand equity model for fast moving consumer goods in cosmetic and hygiene industry. The study has accomplished among people who purchase goods in six major cities of Iran based on an adapted questionnaire originally developed by Aaker (1992a [Aaker, D. A. (1992a. The value of brand equity. Journal of Business Strategy, 13(4, 27-32.]. Cronbach alpha has been calculated as 0.88, which is well above the minimum acceptable level of 0.7. In addition, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling adequacy and Bartlett's test of Sphericity approximation Chi-Square are 0.878, 276628 with Sig. = 0.000, respectively. The proposed study of this paper uses structural equation modeling to test different hypotheses of the survey. The Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA, Comparative Fit Index (CFI and Chi-Square/df are 0.067, 0.840 and 4.244 and they are within desirable levels. While the effects of seven factors on brand equity have been confirmed. However, the survey does not confirm the effects of perceived value, advertisement effectiveness and advertisement to brand on brand equity. In our survey, brand loyalty maintains the highest positive impact followed by having updated brand, trust to brand, perceived quality to brand, brand awareness, intensity of supply and perception to brand.

  4. Detection of bias in animal model pedigree indices of heifers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. LIDAUER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to test whether the pedigree indices (PI of heifers are biased, and if so, whether the magnitude of the bias varies in different groups of heifers. Therefore, two animal model evaluations with two different data sets were computed. Data with all the records from the national evaluation in December 1994 was used to obtain estimated breeding values (EBV for 305-days' milk yield and protein yield. In the second evaluation, the PIs were estimated for cows calving the first time in 1993 by excluding all their production records from the data. Three different statistics, a simple t-test, the linear regression of EBV on PI, and the polynomial regression of the difference in the predictions (EBV-PI on PI, were computed for three groups of first parity Ayrshire cows: daughters of proven sires, daughters of young sires, and daughters of bull dam candidates. A practically relevant bias was found only in the PIs for the daughters of young sires. On average their PIs were biased upwards by 0.20 standard deviations (78.8 kg for the milk yield and by 0.21 standard deviations (2.2 kg for the protein yield. The polynomial regression analysis showed that the magnitude of the bias in the PIs changed somewhat with the size of the PIs.;

  5. Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail: jari.hanninen@utu.fi

    2012-11-01

    Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

  6. Trade potential of climate smart goods of Vietnam: An application of gravity model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trung Van Vu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the trade potential of climate smart goods (CSG of Vietnam. In particular, the study employs gravity model with panel data for bilateral trade between Vietnam and its 45 partners from 2002 to 2013 with an objective of identifying the determinants explaining Vietnam's trade of climate smart products. The estimation results reveal that economic size, market size, distance, real exchange rate, border, and the quality of infrastructure of both Vietnam and its trading partners play a major role in bilateral trade of CSG. Additionally, the paper applies the method using speed of convergence and the estimated gravity equation to answer whether Vietnam has fully realized the potential trade of CSG. Accordingly, Vietnam has strong opportunity for trade expansion with 19 out of 45 countries in the scope of this paper.

  7. Safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise based on the relative entropy aggregation in group decision making model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jun; Li, Chengbing; Huo, Yueying

    2014-01-01

    Safety of dangerous goods transport is directly related to the operation safety of dangerous goods transport enterprise. Aiming at the problem of the high accident rate and large harm in dangerous goods logistics transportation, this paper took the group decision making problem based on integration and coordination thought into a multiagent multiobjective group decision making problem; a secondary decision model was established and applied to the safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise. First of all, we used dynamic multivalue background and entropy theory building the first level multiobjective decision model. Secondly, experts were to empower according to the principle of clustering analysis, and combining with the relative entropy theory to establish a secondary rally optimization model based on relative entropy in group decision making, and discuss the solution of the model. Then, after investigation and analysis, we establish the dangerous goods transport enterprise safety evaluation index system. Finally, case analysis to five dangerous goods transport enterprises in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region validates the feasibility and effectiveness of this model for dangerous goods transport enterprise recognition, which provides vital decision making basis for recognizing the dangerous goods transport enterprises.

  8. Urinary albumin and interleukin-8 levels are not good indicators of ongoing vesicoureteral reflux in children who have no active urinary tract infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badeli, Hamidreza; khoshnevis, Termeh; Hassanzadeh Rad, Afagh; Sadeghi, Mehrdad

    2013-01-01

    Vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) is a risk factor for kidney scarring, hypertension and declining renal function. Standard diagnostic methods are invasive and can cause exposure to radiation and urinary tract infections (UTIs). We aimed to investigate urine albumin and interleukin-8 levels as markers of ongoing VUR and renal damage in children without UTIs. Random urine samples were collected from 51 children, including 16 children with VUR (group A), 17 children with resolved VUR (group B) and 18 normal children (group C). The diagnosis of VUR or resolved VUR was confirmed by voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) or direct radionuclide cystography (DRNC). All children had normal kidney function and had no evidence of UTI in the preceding three months. Random urine specimens were assayed for albumin (Alb), creatinine (Cr) and interleukin-8 (IL-8) and mean values were compared by one way ANOVA. In groups A and B, the mean age at first UTI was 31.7 ± 2.4 and 27 ± 2.0 months respectively. In group A, the mean duration between VUR diagnosis and study entrance was 30 ± 9.1 months. In group B, the mean duration between VUR diagnosis and recovery was 19.9 ± 1.3 months. Overall, 76.4% of affected children had bilateral VUR and 41.2% had severe VUR. There were no significant differences in urinary Alb, IL-8, Alb/Cr and IL-8/Cr between the three groups. The current study does not support the hypothesis that microalbuminuria or urinary IL-8 are good indicators of ongoing VUR and renal injury in children.

  9. Environmental Indicator Principium with Case References to Agricultural Soil, Water, and Air Quality and Model-Derived Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, T Q; Zheng, Z M; Lal, R; Lin, Z Q; Sharpley, A N; Shober, A L; Smith, D; Tan, C S; Van Cappellen, P

    2018-03-01

    Environmental indicators are powerful tools for tracking environmental changes, measuring environmental performance, and informing policymakers. Many diverse environmental indicators, including agricultural environmental indicators, are currently in use or being developed. This special collection of technical papers expands on the peer-reviewed literature on environmental indicators and their application to important current issues in the following areas: (i) model-derived indicators to indicate phosphorus losses from arable land to surface runoff and subsurface drainage, (ii) glutathione-ascorbate cycle-related antioxidants as early-warning bioindicators of polybrominated diphenyl ether toxicity in mangroves, and (iii) assessing the effectiveness of using organic matrix biobeds to limit herbicide dissipation from agricultural fields, thereby controlling on-farm point-source pollution. This introductory review also provides an overview of environmental indicators, mainly for agriculture, with examples related to the quality of the agricultural soil-water-air continuum and the application of model-derived indicators. Current knowledge gaps and future lines of investigation are also discussed. It appears that environmental indicators, particularly those for agriculture, work efficiently at the field, catchment, and local scales and serve as valuable metrics of system functioning and response; however, these indicators need to be refined or further developed to comprehensively meet community expectations in terms of providing a consistent picture of relevant issues and/or allowing comparisons to be made nationally or internationally. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  10. Hepatitis B surface antigen titer is a good indicator of durable viral response after entecavir off-treatment for chronic hepatitis B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Ah Lee

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims Clear indicators for stopping antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB patients are not yet available. Since the level of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg is correlated with covalently closed circular DNA, the HBsAg titer might be a good indicator of the off-treatment response. This study aimed to determine the relationship between the HBsAg titer and the entecavir (ETV off-treatment response. Methods This study analyzed 44 consecutive CHB patients (age, 44.6±11.4 years, mean±SD; men, 63.6%; positive hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg at baseline, 56.8%; HBV DNA level, 6.8±1.3 log10 IU/mL treated with ETV for a sufficient duration and in whom treatment was discontinued after HBsAg levels were measured. A virological relapse was defined as an increase in serum HBV DNA level of >2000 IU/mL, and a clinical relapse was defined as a virological relapse with a biochemical flare, defined as an increase in the serum alanine aminotransferase level of >2 × upper limit of normal. Results After stopping ETV, virological relapse and clinical relapse were observed in 32 and 24 patients, respectively, during 20.8±19.9 months of follow-up. The cumulative incidence rates of virological relapse were 36.2% and 66.2%, respectively, at 6 and 12 months, and those of clinical relapse were 14.3% and 42.3%. The off-treatment HBsAg level was an independent factor associated with clinical relapse (hazard ratio, 2.251; 95% confidence interval, 1.076–4.706; P=0.031. When patients were grouped according to off-treatment HBsAg levels, clinical relapse did not occur in patients with an off-treatment HBsAg level of ≤2 log10 IU/mL (n=5, while the incidence rates of clinical relapse at 12 months after off-treatment were 28.4% and 55.7% in patients with off-treatment HBsAg levels of >2 and ≤3 log10 IU/mL (n=11 and >3 log10 IU/mL (n=28, respectively. Conclusion The off-treatment HBsAg level is closely related to clinical relapse after treatment

  11. Summary goodness-of-fit statistics for binary generalized linear models with noncanonical link functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canary, Jana D; Blizzard, Leigh; Barry, Ronald P; Hosmer, David W; Quinn, Stephen J

    2016-05-01

    Generalized linear models (GLM) with a canonical logit link function are the primary modeling technique used to relate a binary outcome to predictor variables. However, noncanonical links can offer more flexibility, producing convenient analytical quantities (e.g., probit GLMs in toxicology) and desired measures of effect (e.g., relative risk from log GLMs). Many summary goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics exist for logistic GLM. Their properties make the development of GOF statistics relatively straightforward, but it can be more difficult under noncanonical links. Although GOF tests for logistic GLM with continuous covariates (GLMCC) have been applied to GLMCCs with log links, we know of no GOF tests in the literature specifically developed for GLMCCs that can be applied regardless of link function chosen. We generalize the Tsiatis GOF statistic originally developed for logistic GLMCCs, (TG), so that it can be applied under any link function. Further, we show that the algebraically related Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) and Pigeon-Heyse (J(2) ) statistics can be applied directly. In a simulation study, TG, HL, and J(2) were used to evaluate the fit of probit, log-log, complementary log-log, and log models, all calculated with a common grouping method. The TG statistic consistently maintained Type I error rates, while those of HL and J(2) were often lower than expected if terms with little influence were included. Generally, the statistics had similar power to detect an incorrect model. An exception occurred when a log GLMCC was incorrectly fit to data generated from a logistic GLMCC. In this case, TG had more power than HL or J(2) . © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/London School of Economics.

  12. The modeling of response indicators of integrated water resources ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    models were used to model and predict the relationship between water resources mobilization WRM and response variables in the ... to the fast growing demand of urban and rural populations ... Meteorological Organization (WMO). They fall.

  13. "Grey nomads" in Australia: are they a good model for successful aging and health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Paul F D; Quirk, Frances

    2007-10-01

    Lifestyle factors have been identified as being very important in determining health in later life. Nutrition, exercise, and social environment all interact to promote, or to limit, opportunities for an active and healthy post-working life. Not only are rates of chronic illness and disability reduced through the promotion of healthy lifestyles, but also quality of life is maintained through the compression of morbidity. Governments in Australia, as in the European Union and North America, have highlighted the importance of behavioral change in health promotion strategies with the aim of having an impact on the health-related lifestyles of their populations. This paper examines the example of a group of older Australians, the "grey nomads," who may present opportunities for examining health-related lifestyle changes. The term grey nomad refers to a portion of the older population in Australia who choose to use their later years and retirement as opportunities for travel and leisure, mainly within the confines of the Australian continent. As such, they are similar to groups in North America, such as the "snow birds," who travel to the southern United States to escape the colder winters of more northerly latitudes. Similar seasonal migrations occur from Northern to Southern Europe. What all share in common is an active culture/lifestyle of attempting to "age successfully." Grey nomads also participate in the creation of what can be termed postmodern communities, where they and other regular travelers may develop a sense of community feeling with others who are also regularly returning to the same spot year after year. Social support is highly predictive of health outcomes and such mobile communities may prove a positive factor in promoting good health. In this paper we examine whether the "grey nomads" represent a good model for improving health-related lifestyles in later life.

  14. A theoretical framework of the good health status of Jamaicans: using econometric analysis to model good health status over the life course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourne, Paul A

    2009-07-01

    In recent times, the World Health Organization has increasing drawn attention to the pivotal role of social conditions in determining health status. The non-biological factors produced inequalities in health and need to be considered in health development. In spite of this, extensive review of health Caribbean revealed that no study has examined health status over the life course of Jamaicans. With the value of research in public health, this study is timely and will add value to understand the elderly, middle age and young adults in Jamaica. The aim of this study is to develop models that can be used to examine (or evaluate) health of Jamaicans, elderly, middle age and young adults. The current study used data from a cross-sectional survey which was conducted between July and October 2002. Stratified random probability sampling technique was used to collect the data from 25,018 respondents across the island. The non-response rate for the survey was 29.7% with 20.5% who did not respond to particular questions, 9.0% did not participated in the survey and another 0.2% was rejected due to data cleaning. Logistic regression analyses were used to model health status of Jamaicans, young adults, middle age adults and elderly. The predictive power of the model was tested using Omnibus Test of Model and Hosmer and Lemeshow (24) was used to examine goodness of fit of the model. The correlation matrix was examined in order to ascertain whether autocorrelation (or multi-collinearity) existed between variables. Using logistic regression analysis, eleven variables emerged as statistically significant predictors of current good health Status of Jamaicans (p<0.05). The factors are retirement income (95%CI=0.487-0.958), logged medical expenditure (95% Confidence Interval, CI =0.907-0.993), marital status (Separated or widowed or divorced: 95%CI=0.309-0.464; married: 95%CI=0.495-0.667; Never married), health insurance (95%CI=0.029-0.046), area of residence (other towns:, 95%CI=1

  15. A Monte Carlo-adjusted goodness-of-fit test for parametric models describing spatial point patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Dao, Ngocanh; Genton, Marc G.

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) for intricate parametric spatial point process models is important for many application fields. When the probability density of the statistic of the GOF test is intractable, a commonly used procedure is the Monte

  16. A latent class multiple constraint multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model of time use and goods consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    This paper develops a microeconomic theory-based multiple discrete continuous choice model that considers: (a) that both goods consumption and time allocations (to work and non-work activities) enter separately as decision variables in the utility fu...

  17. Model-Based Policymaking: A Framework to Promote Ethical “Good Practice” in Mathematical Modeling for Public Health Policymaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Lisa A.; McKendrick, Iain J.

    2017-01-01

    Mathematical models are increasingly relied upon as decision support tools, which estimate risks and generate recommendations to underpin public health policies. However, there are no formal agreements about what constitutes professional competencies or duties in mathematical modeling for public health. In this article, we propose a framework to evaluate whether mathematical models that assess human and animal disease risks and control strategies meet standards consistent with ethical “good practice” and are thus “fit for purpose” as evidence in support of policy. This framework is derived from principles of biomedical ethics: independence, transparency (autonomy), beneficence/non-maleficence, and justice. We identify ethical risks associated with model development and implementation and consider the extent to which scientists are accountable for the translation and communication of model results to policymakers so that the strengths and weaknesses of the scientific evidence base and any socioeconomic and ethical impacts of biased or uncertain predictions are clearly understood. We propose principles to operationalize a framework for ethically sound model development and risk communication between scientists and policymakers. These include the creation of science–policy partnerships to mutually define policy questions and communicate results; development of harmonized international standards for model development; and data stewardship and improvement of the traceability and transparency of models via a searchable archive of policy-relevant models. Finally, we suggest that bespoke ethical advisory groups, with relevant expertise and access to these resources, would be beneficial as a bridge between science and policy, advising modelers of potential ethical risks and providing overview of the translation of modeling advice into policy. PMID:28424768

  18. Biochemical and hematological indicators in model of total body irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubner, D; Gisone, P.; Perez, M.R.; Barboza, M.; Luchetta, P.; Longoni, H.; Sorrentino, M.; Robison, A.

    1998-01-01

    With the purpose of evaluating the applicability of several biological indicators in accidental overexposures a study was carried out in 20 patients undergoing therapeutical total body irradiation (TBI). The following parameters were evaluated: a) Oxidative stress indicators: erythrocyte superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase activity (CAT), lipo peroxyde levels (TBARS) and total plasma antioxidant activity (TAA). b) Haematological indicators: reticulocyte maturity index (RMI) and charges in lymphocyte subpopulations. Non significant changes in SOD and CAT activity were observed. Significant higher TBARS levels were found in patients with unfavorable post-BTM course without any significant correlation with TAA. RMI decreased early and dropped to zero in most of the patients and rose several days prior to reticulocyte, neutrophils and platelets counts. A significant decrease in absolute counts of all lymphocyte subpopulations was observed during TBI, particularly for B lymphocytes. A subpopulation of natural killer (NK) cells (CD16+/ CD 56 +) showed a relative higher radioresistance. Cytotoxic activity was significantly decreased after TBI. These data suggest that TBARS could provide an useful evolutive indicator in accidental over exposure d patients and RMI is an early indicator of bone marrow recovery after radioinduced aplasia. The implications of the different radiosensitivities within the NK subsets remains unanswered. (author) [es

  19. Causal Indicator Models: Unresolved Issues of Construction and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Grimm, Kevin J.

    2014-01-01

    These authors agree with Bainter and Bollen that causal effects represents a useful measurement structure in some applications. The structure of the science of the measurement problem should determine the model; the measurement model should not determine the science. They also applaud Bainter and Bollen's important reminder that the full…

  20. Causal Indicator Models Have Nothing to Do with Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Roy D.; Breivik, Einar

    2016-01-01

    In this article, Roy Howell, and Einar Breivik, congratulate Aguirre-Urreta, M. I., Rönkkö, M., & Marakas, G. M., for their work (2016) "Omission of Causal Indicators: Consequences and Implications for Measurement," Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, 14(3), 75-97. doi:10.1080/15366367.2016.1205935. They call it…

  1. Irrigation Requirement Estimation Using Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Franks, Shannon

    2010-01-01

    We explore an inverse biophysical modeling process forced by satellite and climatological data to quantify irrigation requirements in semi-arid agricultural areas. We constrain the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium, balance between vegetation and climate, and non-equilibrium, water added through irrigation. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated dry lands vary from equilibrium climate conditions is related to the amount of irrigation. The amount of water required over and above precipitation is considered as an irrigation requirement. For July, results show that spray irrigation resulted in an additional amount of water of 1.3 mm per occurrence with a frequency of 24.6 hours. In contrast, the drip irrigation required only 0.6 mm every 45.6 hours or 46% of that simulated by the spray irrigation. The modeled estimates account for 87% of the total reported irrigation water use, when soil salinity is not important and 66% in saline lands.

  2. Global Patterns in Ecological Indicators of Marine Food Webs: A Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Morissette, Lyne; Christensen, Villy

    2014-01-01

    Background Ecological attributes estimated from food web models have the potential to be indicators of good environmental status given their capabilities to describe redundancy, food web changes, and sensitivity to fishing. They can be used as a baseline to show how they might be modified in the future with human impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, or overfishing. Methodology In this study ecological network analysis indicators of 105 marine food web models were tested for variation with traits such as ecosystem type, latitude, ocean basin, depth, size, time period, and exploitation state, whilst also considering structural properties of the models such as number of linkages, number of living functional groups or total number of functional groups as covariate factors. Principal findings Eight indicators were robust to model construction: relative ascendency; relative overhead; redundancy; total systems throughput (TST); primary production/TST; consumption/TST; export/TST; and total biomass of the community. Large-scale differences were seen in the ecosystems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with the Western Atlantic being more complex with an increased ability to mitigate impacts, while the Eastern Atlantic showed lower internal complexity. In addition, the Eastern Pacific was less organised than the Eastern Atlantic although both of these systems had increased primary production as eastern boundary current systems. Differences by ecosystem type highlighted coral reefs as having the largest energy flow and total biomass per unit of surface, while lagoons, estuaries, and bays had lower transfer efficiencies and higher recycling. These differences prevailed over time, although some traits changed with fishing intensity. Keystone groups were mainly higher trophic level species with mostly top-down effects, while structural/dominant groups were mainly lower trophic level groups (benthic primary producers such as seagrass and macroalgae

  3. Global patterns in ecological indicators of marine food webs: a modelling approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Jacomina Heymans

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Ecological attributes estimated from food web models have the potential to be indicators of good environmental status given their capabilities to describe redundancy, food web changes, and sensitivity to fishing. They can be used as a baseline to show how they might be modified in the future with human impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, or overfishing. METHODOLOGY: In this study ecological network analysis indicators of 105 marine food web models were tested for variation with traits such as ecosystem type, latitude, ocean basin, depth, size, time period, and exploitation state, whilst also considering structural properties of the models such as number of linkages, number of living functional groups or total number of functional groups as covariate factors. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Eight indicators were robust to model construction: relative ascendency; relative overhead; redundancy; total systems throughput (TST; primary production/TST; consumption/TST; export/TST; and total biomass of the community. Large-scale differences were seen in the ecosystems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with the Western Atlantic being more complex with an increased ability to mitigate impacts, while the Eastern Atlantic showed lower internal complexity. In addition, the Eastern Pacific was less organised than the Eastern Atlantic although both of these systems had increased primary production as eastern boundary current systems. Differences by ecosystem type highlighted coral reefs as having the largest energy flow and total biomass per unit of surface, while lagoons, estuaries, and bays had lower transfer efficiencies and higher recycling. These differences prevailed over time, although some traits changed with fishing intensity. Keystone groups were mainly higher trophic level species with mostly top-down effects, while structural/dominant groups were mainly lower trophic level groups (benthic primary producers such as

  4. Basic model of quality and good practices in neonatal radiography; Modelo basico de qualidade e boas praticas em radiografia neonatal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dias, Janine H.; Goulart, Juliana M.; Lykawka, Rochelle; Bacelar, Alexandre [Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    Neonatal chest radiographs were evaluated and 3 variables were analyzed: collimation, positioning and presence of artifacts. This study is a pilot for develop a model of good practices in radiology, which is in development phase. The index of analyzed radiographs considered inadequate is expressive and it shows the need for a model that may be part of an optimization program to medical exposures. (author)

  5. Neural control of muscle force: indications from a simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luca, Carlo J. De

    2013-01-01

    We developed a model to investigate the influence of the muscle force twitch on the simulated firing behavior of motoneurons and muscle force production during voluntary isometric contractions. The input consists of an excitatory signal common to all the motor units in the pool of a muscle, consistent with the “common drive” property. Motor units respond with a hierarchically structured firing behavior wherein at any time and force, firing rates are inversely proportional to recruitment threshold, as described by the “onion skin” property. Time- and force-dependent changes in muscle force production are introduced by varying the motor unit force twitches as a function of time or by varying the number of active motor units. A force feedback adjusts the input excitation, maintaining the simulated force at a target level. The simulations replicate motor unit behavior characteristics similar to those reported in previous empirical studies of sustained contractions: 1) the initial decrease and subsequent increase of firing rates, 2) the derecruitment and recruitment of motor units throughout sustained contractions, and 3) the continual increase in the force fluctuation caused by the progressive recruitment of larger motor units. The model cautions the use of motor unit behavior at recruitment and derecruitment without consideration of changes in the muscle force generation capacity. It describes an alternative mechanism for the reserve capacity of motor units to generate extraordinary force. It supports the hypothesis that the control of motoneurons remains invariant during force-varying and sustained isometric contractions. PMID:23236008

  6. Is the Linear Modeling Technique Good Enough for Optimal Form Design? A Comparison of Quantitative Analysis Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yang-Cheng; Yeh, Chung-Hsing; Wang, Chen-Cheng; Wei, Chun-Chun

    2012-01-01

    How to design highly reputable and hot-selling products is an essential issue in product design. Whether consumers choose a product depends largely on their perception of the product image. A consumer-oriented design approach presented in this paper helps product designers incorporate consumers' perceptions of product forms in the design process. The consumer-oriented design approach uses quantification theory type I, grey prediction (the linear modeling technique), and neural networks (the nonlinear modeling technique) to determine the optimal form combination of product design for matching a given product image. An experimental study based on the concept of Kansei Engineering is conducted to collect numerical data for examining the relationship between consumers' perception of product image and product form elements of personal digital assistants (PDAs). The result of performance comparison shows that the QTTI model is good enough to help product designers determine the optimal form combination of product design. Although the PDA form design is used as a case study, the approach is applicable to other consumer products with various design elements and product images. The approach provides an effective mechanism for facilitating the consumer-oriented product design process. PMID:23258961

  7. Escherichia coli at Ohio Bathing Beaches--Distribution, Sources, Wastewater Indicators, and Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francy, Donna S.; Gifford, Amie M.; Darner, Robert A.

    2003-01-01

    . None of the concentrations of wastewater indicators of fecal contamination, including 3b-coprostanol and cholesterol, were significantly correlated (a=0.05) to concentrations of E. coli. Concentrations of the two compounds that were significantly correlated to E. coli were components of coal tar and asphalt, which are not necessarily indicative of fecal contamination. Data were collected to build on an earlier 1997 study to develop and test multiple-linear-regression models to predict E. coli concentrations using water-quality and environmental variables as explanatory variables. The probability of exceeding the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli (235 colonies per 100 milliliters) was used as the model output variable. Threshold probabilities for each model were established. Computed probabilities that are less than a threshold probability indicate that bacterial water quality is most likely acceptable. Computed probabilities equal to or above the threshold probability indicate that the water quality is most likely not acceptable and that a water-quality advisory may be needed. Models were developed at each beach, whenever possible, using combinations of 1997, 2000, and (or) 2001 data. The models developed and tested in this study were shown to be beach specific; that is, different explanatory variables were used to predict the probability of exceeding the standard at each beach. At Mentor Headlands and Fairport Harbor, models were not developed because water quality was generally good. At the three Lake Erie urban beaches, models were developed with variable lists that included the number of birds on the beach at the time of sampling, lake-current direction, wave height, turbidity, streamflow of a nearby river, and rainfall. The models for Huntington explained a larger percentage of the variability in E. coli concentrations than the models for Edgewater and Villa Angela. At Mosquito Lake, a model based on 2000 and 2001 data contained the

  8. Understanding the natural and social factors behind regional longevity in Guangxi, China—Is centenarian ratio a good enough indicator for assessing the longevity level?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Q.; Wei, Y.; Zhao, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Despite a number of longevity indicators having been used in previous longevity studies, few studies have critically evaluated whether these indicators are suitable. In addition, an increasing number of studies have attempted to determine the influence of socio-economic and natural factors on regional longevity, but only certain factors were considered. The present study bridges this gap by determining the relationship between the seven longevity indicators and selecting 24 natural and socio-economic indicators in the 91 selected counties and districts in Guangxi, China. The seven longevity indicators here refer to Centenarian ratio, Longevity index, Longevity level, Aging tendency, 80+ ratio, 90+ ratio and 95+ ratio. Natural indicators in this study mainly refer to climatic ones. Socio-economic indicators can be categorized into those related to economic, education, local infrastructure, and health care facilities. These data were mainly drawn from the Meteorological Data Sharing Service System and Guangxi's sixth population census. Stepwise regression analysis has been used as the primary research method to determine the relationship between the longevity indicators and the natural, social, and economic indicators. The results show that the climate factors regarding atmospheric pressure, humidity, and rainfall are the most significant contributors to the longevity of the 60- to 90-year-old elderly in Guangxi, while the difference of mean annual temperature could have negative impacts. Also, the natural and socioeconomic factors that impact the extremely old population (those over 95 years old) in Guangxi are still not clear. This study reveals that the longevity index and longevity level are useful supplementary indexes to the centenarian ratio for assessing the regional longevity as they could help reflect the regional longevity regarding the proportion of young-old and old-old population and not just limit to those over 100 years old. The elderly (those from 60

  9. Hydrodynamic modelling of recreational water quality using Escherichia coli as an indicator of microbial contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eregno, Fasil Ejigu; Tryland, Ingun; Tjomsland, Torulv; Kempa, Magdalena; Heistad, Arve

    2018-06-01

    Microbial contamination of recreational beaches is often at its worst after heavy rainfall events due to storm floods that carry fecal matter and other pollutants from the watershed. Similarly, overflows of untreated sewage from combined sewerage systems may discharge directly into coastal water or via rivers and streams. In order to understand the effect of rainfall events, wind-directions and tides on the recreational water quality, GEMSS, an integrated 3D hydrodynamic model was applied to assess the spreading of Escherichia coli (E. coli) at the Sandvika beaches, located in the Oslo fjord. The model was also used to theoretically investigate the effect of discharges from septic tanks from boats on the water quality at local beaches. The model make use of microbial decay rate as the main input representing the survival of microbial pathogens in the ocean, which vary widely depending on the type of pathogen and environmental stress. The predicted beach water quality was validated against observed data after a heavy rainfall event using Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E) and the overall result indicated that the model performed quite well and the simulation was in - good agreement with the observed E. coli concentrations for all beaches. The result of this study indicated that: 1) the bathing water quality was poor according to the EU bathing water directive up to two days after the heavy rainfall event depending on the location of the beach site. 2) The discharge from a boat at 300-meter distance to the beaches slightly increased the E. coli levels at the beaches. 3) The spreading of microbial pathogens from its source to the different beaches depended on the wind speed and the wind direction.

  10. Measuring socioeconomic inequality in health, health care and health financing by means of rank-dependent indices: A recipe for good practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erreygers, Guido; Van Ourti, Tom

    2011-01-01

    The tools to be used and other choices to be made when measuring socioeconomic inequalities with rank-dependent inequality indices have recently been debated in this journal. This paper adds to this debate by stressing the importance of the measurement scale, by providing formal proofs of several issues in the debate, and by lifting the curtain on the confusing debate between adherents of absolute versus relative health differences. We end this paper with a ‘matrix’ that provides guidelines on the usefulness of several rank-dependent inequality indices under varying circumstances. PMID:21683462

  11. Measuring socioeconomic inequality in health, health care and health financing by means of rank-dependent indices: a recipe for good practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erreygers, Guido; Van Ourti, Tom

    2011-07-01

    The tools to be used and other choices to be made when measuring socioeconomic inequalities with rank-dependent inequality indices have recently been debated in this journal. This paper adds to this debate by stressing the importance of the measurement scale, by providing formal proofs of several issues in the debate, and by lifting the curtain on the confusing debate between adherents of absolute versus relative health differences. We end this paper with a 'matrix' that provides guidelines on the usefulness of several rank-dependent inequality indices under varying circumstances. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Measuring Socioeconomic Inequality in Health, Health Care and Health Financing by Means of Rank-Dependent Indices: A Recipe for Good Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Erreygers (Guido); T.G.M. van Ourti (Tom)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe tools to be used and other choices to be made when measuring socioeconomic inequalities with rank-dependent inequality indices have recently been debated in this journal. This paper adds to this debate by stressing the importance of the measurement scale, by providing formal proofs

  13. Purchasing power parity theory in a model without international trade of goods

    OpenAIRE

    Läufer, Nikolaus K. A.

    1980-01-01

    In recent discussions it frequently occurs that the Purchasing Power Parity Theory is identified with Jevons law of one price. By pointing to real world obstacles working against perfect goods arbitrage it is then erroneously concluded that the Purchasing Power Parity Theory cannot be valid while a dinstiction between an absolute version and a relative version of the Purchasing Power Parity Theory is neglected. In the present paper it is shown that the Purchasing Power Parity Theory in the re...

  14. Towards the Sigma Online Learning Model for crowdsourced recommendations of good web-based learning resources

    OpenAIRE

    Aaberg, Robin Garen

    2016-01-01

    The web based learning resources is believed to be playing an active role in the learning environment of higher education today. This qualitative study is exploring how students at Bergen University College incorporate web-based learning resources in their learning activities. At the core of this research is the problem of retrieving good web-resources after their first discovery. Usefull and knowledge granting web-resources are discovered within a context of topics, objectives. It is here ar...

  15. Intraoperative Right Ventricular Fractional Area Change Is a Good Indicator of Right Ventricular Contractility: A Retrospective Comparison Using Two- and Three-Dimensional Echocardiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imada, Tatsuyuki; Kamibayashi, Takahiko; Ota, Chiho; Carl Shibata, Sho; Iritakenishi, Takeshi; Sawa, Yoshiki; Fujino, Yuji

    2015-08-01

    Intraoperative two-dimensional echocardiography is technically challenging, given the unique geometry of the right ventricle (RV). It was hypothesized that the RV fractional area change (RVFAC) could be used as a simple method to evaluate RV function during surgery. Therefore, the correlation between the intraoperative RVFAC and the true right ventricular ejection fraction (RVEF), as measured using newly developed three-dimensional (3D) analysis software, was evaluated. Retrospective study. University hospital. Patients who underwent cardiac surgery with transesophageal echocardiography monitoring between March 2014 and June 2014. None. Sixty-two patients were included in this study. After the exclusion of poor imaging data and patients with arrhythmias, 54 data sets were analyzed. RVFAC was measured by one anesthesiologist during surgery, and full-volume 3D echocardiographic data were recorded simultaneously. The 3D data were analyzed postoperatively using off-line 3D analysis software by a second anesthesiologist, who was blinded to the RVFAC results. The mean RVFAC was 38.8% ± 8.7%, the mean RVEF was 41.4% ± 8.3%, and there was a good correlation between the RVFAC and the RVEF (r(2) = 0.638; prights reserved.

  16. Local and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests in classical measurement error models

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan; Hart, Jeffrey D.; Janicki, Ryan; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2010-01-01

    We consider functional measurement error models, i.e. models where covariates are measured with error and yet no distributional assumptions are made about the mismeasured variable. We propose and study a score-type local test and an orthogonal

  17. Good leadership for good quality

    OpenAIRE

    Franzon, Vilma Maria

    2016-01-01

    Good leadership is important if you like to have high quality in the results. My experience in the production of the television industry is that conditions for good leadership is insufficient. Therefore, I have tried to get answers for those two questions in my exam report: What are the characteristics of good leadership? What are the prerequisites for good leadership out of production? The method I used is a literature study and observation. I have read a number of books and research studies...

  18. F-Specific RNA Bacteriophages, Especially Members of Subgroup II, Should Be Reconsidered as Good Indicators of Viral Pollution of Oysters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartard, C; Leclerc, M; Rivet, R; Maul, A; Loutreul, J; Banas, S; Boudaud, N; Gantzer, C

    2018-01-01

    Norovirus (NoV) is the leading cause of gastroenteritis outbreaks linked to oyster consumption. In this study, we investigated the potential of F-specific RNA bacteriophages (FRNAPH) as indicators of viral contamination in oysters by focusing especially on FRNAPH subgroup II (FRNAPH-II). These viral indicators have been neglected because their behavior is sometimes different from that of NoV in shellfish, especially during the depuration processes usually performed before marketing. However, a significant bias needs to be taken into account. This bias is that, in the absence of routine culture methods, NoV is targeted by genome detection, while the presence of FRNAPH is usually investigated by isolation of infectious particles. In this study, by targeting both viruses using genome detection, a significant correlation between the presence of FRNAPH-II and that of NoV in shellfish collected from various European harvesting areas impacted by fecal pollution was observed. Moreover, during their depuration, while the long period of persistence of NoV was confirmed, a similar or even longer period of persistence of the FRNAPH-II genome, which was over 30 days, was observed. Such a striking genome persistence calls into question the relevance of molecular methods for assessing viral hazards. Targeting the same virus (i.e., FRNAPH-II) by culture and genome detection in specimens from harvesting areas as well as during depuration, we concluded that the presence of genomes in shellfish does not provide any information on the presence of the corresponding infectious particles. In view of these results, infectious FRNAPH detection should be reconsidered as a valuable indicator in oysters, and its potential for use in assessing viral hazard needs to be investigated. IMPORTANCE This work brings new data about the behavior of viruses in shellfish, as well as about the relevance of molecular methods for their detection and evaluation of the viral hazard. First, a strong

  19. Selecting a Dynamic Simulation Modeling Method for Health Care Delivery Research—Part 2: Report of the ISPOR Dynamic Simulation Modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marshall, Deborah A.; Burgos-Liz, Lina; IJzerman, Maarten Joost; Crown, William; Padula, William V.; Wong, Peter K.; Pasupathy, Kalyan S.; Higashi, Mitchell K.; Osgood, Nathaniel D.

    2015-01-01

    In a previous report, the ISPOR Task Force on Dynamic Simulation Modeling Applications in Health Care Delivery Research Emerging Good Practices introduced the fundamentals of dynamic simulation modeling and identified the types of health care delivery problems for which dynamic simulation modeling

  20. The great descriptor melting pot: mixing descriptors for the common good of QSAR models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Yufeng J; Hopfinger, Anton J; Esposito, Emilio Xavier

    2012-01-01

    The usefulness and utility of QSAR modeling depends heavily on the ability to estimate the values of molecular descriptors relevant to the endpoints of interest followed by an optimized selection of descriptors to form the best QSAR models from a representative set of the endpoints of interest. The performance of a QSAR model is directly related to its molecular descriptors. QSAR modeling, specifically model construction and optimization, has benefited from its ability to borrow from other unrelated fields, yet the molecular descriptors that form QSAR models have remained basically unchanged in both form and preferred usage. There are many types of endpoints that require multiple classes of descriptors (descriptors that encode 1D through multi-dimensional, 4D and above, content) needed to most fully capture the molecular features and interactions that contribute to the endpoint. The advantages of QSAR models constructed from multiple, and different, descriptor classes have been demonstrated in the exploration of markedly different, and principally biological systems and endpoints. Multiple examples of such QSAR applications using different descriptor sets are described and that examined. The take-home-message is that a major part of the future of QSAR analysis, and its application to modeling biological potency, ADME-Tox properties, general use in virtual screening applications, as well as its expanding use into new fields for building QSPR models, lies in developing strategies that combine and use 1D through nD molecular descriptors.

  1. Goodness-of-fit tests and model diagnostics for negative binomial regression of RNA sequencing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Gu; Di, Yanming; Schafer, Daniel W

    2015-01-01

    This work is about assessing model adequacy for negative binomial (NB) regression, particularly (1) assessing the adequacy of the NB assumption, and (2) assessing the appropriateness of models for NB dispersion parameters. Tools for the first are appropriate for NB regression generally; those for the second are primarily intended for RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data analysis. The typically small number of biological samples and large number of genes in RNA-Seq analysis motivate us to address the trade-offs between robustness and statistical power using NB regression models. One widely-used power-saving strategy, for example, is to assume some commonalities of NB dispersion parameters across genes via simple models relating them to mean expression rates, and many such models have been proposed. As RNA-Seq analysis is becoming ever more popular, it is appropriate to make more thorough investigations into power and robustness of the resulting methods, and into practical tools for model assessment. In this article, we propose simulation-based statistical tests and diagnostic graphics to address model adequacy. We provide simulated and real data examples to illustrate that our proposed methods are effective for detecting the misspecification of the NB mean-variance relationship as well as judging the adequacy of fit of several NB dispersion models.

  2. Derivation and validation of a multivariable model to predict when primary care physicians prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong J

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Jenna Wong, Michal Abrahamowicz, David L Buckeridge, Robyn Tamblyn Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada Objective: Physicians commonly prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression that are not evidence-based and need further evaluation. However, lack of routinely documented treatment indications for medications in administrative and medical databases creates a major barrier to evaluating antidepressant use for indications besides depression. Thus, the aim of this study was to derive a model to predict when primary care physicians prescribe antidepressants for indications other than depression and to identify important determinants of this prescribing practice. Methods: Prediction study using antidepressant prescriptions from January 2003–December 2012 in an indication-based electronic prescribing system in Quebec, Canada. Patients were linked to demographic files, medical billings data, and hospital discharge summary data to create over 370 candidate predictors. The final prediction model was derived on a random 75% sample of the data using 3-fold cross-validation integrated within a score-based forward stepwise selection procedure. The performance of the final model was assessed in the remaining 25% of the data. Results: Among 73,576 antidepressant prescriptions, 32,405 (44.0% were written for indications other than depression. Among 40 predictors in the final model, the most important covariates included the molecule name, the patient’s education level, the physician’s workload, the prescribed dose, and diagnostic codes for plausible indications recorded in the past year. The final model had good discrimination (concordance (c statistic 0.815; 95% CI, 0.787–0.847 and good calibration (ratio of observed to expected events 0.986; 95% CI, 0.842–1.136. Conclusion: In the absence of documented treatment indications, researchers may be able to use

  3. A Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods under Non-homothetic Preferences: Demand Complementarities, Income Distribution, and North-South Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Kiminori Matsuyama

    1999-01-01

    This paper develops a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods when consumers have nonhomothetic preferences. Goods are indexed in terms of priority, and the households add higher-indexed goods to their consumption baskets, as they become richer. South (North) has comparative advantage in a lower (higher) spectrum of goods, hence specializing in goods with lower (higher) income elasticities of demand. Due to the income elasticity difference, a variety of exogenous changes have asymmetric eff...

  4. A simulation-based goodness-of-fit test for random effects in generalized linear mixed models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2006-01-01

    The goodness-of-fit of the distribution of random effects in a generalized linear mixed model is assessed using a conditional simulation of the random effects conditional on the observations. Provided that the specified joint model for random effects and observations is correct, the marginal...... distribution of the simulated random effects coincides with the assumed random effects distribution. In practice, the specified model depends on some unknown parameter which is replaced by an estimate. We obtain a correction for this by deriving the asymptotic distribution of the empirical distribution...

  5. A simulation-based goodness-of-fit test for random effects in generalized linear mixed models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge

    The goodness-of-fit of the distribution of random effects in a generalized linear mixed model is assessed using a conditional simulation of the random effects conditional on the observations. Provided that the specified joint model for random effects and observations is correct, the marginal...... distribution of the simulated random effects coincides with the assumed random effects distribution. In practice the specified model depends on some unknown parameter which is replaced by an estimate. We obtain a correction for this by deriving the asymptotic distribution of the empirical distribution function...

  6. Economic Order Quality Model for Determining the Sales Prices of Fresh Goods at Various Points in Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Po-Yu Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Although the safe consumption of goods such as food products, medicine, and vaccines is related to their freshness, consumers frequently understand less than suppliers about the freshness of goods when they purchase them. Because of this lack of information, apart from sales prices, consumers refer only to the manufacturing and expiration dates when deciding whether to purchase and how many of these goods to buy. If dealers could determine the sales price at each point in time and customers’ intention to buy goods of varying freshness, then dealers could set an optimal inventory cycle and allocate a weekly sales price for each point in time, thereby maximizing the profit per unit time. Therefore, in this study, an economic order quality model was established to enable discussion of the optimal control of sales prices. The technique for identifying the optimal solution for the model was determined, the characteristics of the optimal solution were demonstrated, and the implications of the solution’s sensitivity analysis were explained.

  7. Testing the goodness of fit of selected infiltration models on soils with different land use histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbagwu, J.S.C.

    1993-10-01

    Six infiltration models, some obtained by reformulating the fitting parameters of the classical Kostiakov (1932) and Philip (1957) equations, were investigated for their ability to describe water infiltration into highly permeable sandy soils from the Nsukka plains of SE Nigeria. The models were Kostiakov, Modified Kostiakov (A), Modified Kostiakov (B), Philip, Modified Philip (A) and Modified Philip (B). Infiltration data were obtained from double ring infiltrometers on field plots established on a Knadic Paleustult (Nkpologu series) to investigate the effects of land use on soil properties and maize yield. The treatments were; (i) tilled-mulched (TM), (ii) tilled-unmulched (TU), (iii) untilled-mulched (UM), (iv) untilled-unmulched (UU) and (v) continuous pasture (CP). Cumulative infiltration was highest on the TM and lowest on the CP plots. All estimated model parameters obtained by the best fit of measured data differed significantly among the treatments. Based on the magnitude of R 2 values, the Kostiakov, Modified Kostiakov (A), Philip and Modified Philip (A) models provided best predictions of cumulative infiltration as a function of time. Comparing experimental with model-predicted cumulative infiltration showed, however, that on all treatments the values predicted by the classical Kostiakov, Philip and Modified Philip (A) models deviated most from experimental data. The other models produced values that agreed very well with measured data. Considering the eases of determining the fitting parameters it is proposed that on soils with high infiltration rates, either Modified Kostiakov model (I = Kt a + Ict) or Modified Philip model (I St 1/2 + Ict), (where I is cumulative infiltration, K, the time coefficient, t, time elapsed, 'a' the time exponent, Ic the equilibrium infiltration rate and S, the soil water sorptivity), be used for routine characterization of the infiltration process. (author). 33 refs, 3 figs 6 tabs

  8. From good intentions to healthy habits: towards integrated computational models of goal striving and habit formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirolli, Peter

    2016-08-01

    Computational models were developed in the ACT-R neurocognitive architecture to address some aspects of the dynamics of behavior change. The simulations aim to address the day-to-day goal achievement data available from mobile health systems. The models refine current psychological theories of self-efficacy, intended effort, and habit formation, and provide an account for the mechanisms by which goal personalization, implementation intentions, and remindings work.

  9. Building a good initial model for full-waveform inversion using frequency shift filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanchao; Wang, Shangxu; Yuan, Sanyi; Lian, Shijie

    2018-05-01

    Accurate initial model or available low-frequency data is an important factor in the success of full waveform inversion (FWI). The low-frequency helps determine the kinematical relevant components, low-wavenumber of the velocity model, which are in turn needed to avoid FWI trap in local minima or cycle-skipping. However, in the field, acquiring data that common point of low- and high-frequency signal, then utilize the high-frequency data to obtain the low-wavenumber velocity model. It is well known that the instantaneous amplitude envelope of a wavelet is invariant under frequency shift. This means that resolution is constant for a given frequency bandwidth, and independent of the actual values of the frequencies. Based on this property, we develop a frequency shift filter (FSF) to build the relationship between low- and high-frequency information with a constant frequency bandwidth. After that, we can use the high-frequency information to get a plausible recovery of the low-wavenumber velocity model. Numerical results using synthetic data from the Marmousi and layer model demonstrate that our proposed envelope misfit function based on the frequency shift filter can build an initial model with more accurate long-wavelength components, when low-frequency signals are absent in recorded data.

  10. Good Cell Culture Practice for stem cells and stem-cell-derived models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamies, David; Bal-Price, Anna; Simeonov, Anton; Tagle, Danilo; Allen, Dave; Gerhold, David; Yin, Dezhong; Pistollato, Francesca; Inutsuka, Takashi; Sullivan, Kristie; Stacey, Glyn; Salem, Harry; Leist, Marcel; Daneshian, Mardas; Vemuri, Mohan C; McFarland, Richard; Coecke, Sandra; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne C; Lakshmipathy, Uma; Mack, Amanda; Wang, Wen Bo; Yamazaki, Daiju; Sekino, Yuko; Kanda, Yasunari; Smirnova, Lena; Hartung, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    The first guidance on Good Cell Culture Practice (GCCP) dates back to 2005. This document expands this to include aspects of quality assurance for in vitro cell culture focusing on the increasingly diverse cell types and culture formats used in research, product development, testing and manufacture of biotechnology products and cell-based medicines. It provides a set of basic principles of best practice that can be used in training new personnel, reviewing and improving local procedures, and helping to assure standard practices and conditions for the comparison of data between laboratories and experimentation performed at different times. This includes recommendations for the documentation and reporting of culture conditions. It is intended as guidance to facilitate the generation of reliable data from cell culture systems, and is not intended to conflict with local or higher level legislation or regulatory requirements. It may not be possible to meet all recommendations in this guidance for practical, legal or other reasons. However, when it is necessary to divert from the principles of GCCP, the risk of decreasing the quality of work and the safety of laboratory staff should be addressed and any conclusions or alternative approaches justified. This workshop report is considered a first step toward a revised GCCP 2.0.

  11. Building of Reusable Reverse Logistics Model and its Optimization Considering the Decision of Backorder or Next Arrival of Goods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeong-Eun; Gen, Mitsuo; Rhee, Kyong-Gu; Lee, Hee-Hyol

    This paper deals with the building of the reusable reverse logistics model considering the decision of the backorder or the next arrival of goods. The optimization method to minimize the transportation cost and to minimize the volume of the backorder or the next arrival of goods occurred by the Just in Time delivery of the final delivery stage between the manufacturer and the processing center is proposed. Through the optimization algorithms using the priority-based genetic algorithm and the hybrid genetic algorithm, the sub-optimal delivery routes are determined. Based on the case study of a distilling and sale company in Busan in Korea, the new model of the reusable reverse logistics of empty bottles is built and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.

  12. Models of non-relativistic quantum gravity: the good, the bad and the healthy

    CERN Document Server

    Blas, Diego; Sibiryakov, Sergey

    2011-01-01

    Horava's proposal for non-relativistic quantum gravity introduces a preferred time foliation of space-time which violates the local Lorentz invariance. The foliation is encoded in a dynamical scalar field which we call `khronon'. The dynamics of the khronon field is sensitive to the symmetries and other details of the particular implementations of the proposal. In this paper we examine several consistency issues present in three non-relativistic gravity theories: Horava's projectable theory, the healthy non-projectable extension, and a new extension related to ghost condensation. We find that the only model which is free from instabilities and strong coupling is the non-projectable one. We elaborate on the phenomenology of the latter model including a discussion of the couplings of the khronon to matter. In particular, we obtain the parameters of the post-Newtonian expansion in this model and show that they are compatible with current observations.

  13. Design of an integrated forward and reverse logistics network optimi-zation model for commercial goods management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Ponce-Cueto

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an optimization model is formulated for designing an integrated forward and reverse logistics network in the consumer goods industry. The resultant model is a mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP. Its purpose is to minimize the total costs of the closed-loop supply chain network. It is important to note that the design of the logistics network may involve a trade-off between the total costs and the optimality in commercial goods management. The model comprises a discrete set as potential locations of unlimited capacity warehouses and fixed locations of customers’ zones. It provides decisions related to the facility location and customers’ requirements satisfaction, all of this related with the inventory and shipment decisions of the supply chain. Finally, an application of this model is illustrated by a real-life case in the food and drinks industry. We can conclude that this model can significantly help companies to make decisions about problems associated with logistics network design.

  14. TEACHING AND LEARNING WITH TECHNOLOGY: A THEORETICAL MODEL FOR GOOD EDUCATIONAL PRACTICES WITH ICT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Valverde Berrocoso

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to define a theoretical explanatory framework for the integration of information technologies and communication technologies (ICT in education from the perspective of teacher education. The initial and continuing training of teachers is characterized by a tendency towards "essentialisation" of technology and generation of users who do not usually think about educational uses of technology in their own contexts. Our research on the integration of ICT in the classroom has allowed us to observe the lack of connection between the personal and professional use of teachers of these technological tools, as well as the need for training is geared towards developing skills and knowledge to examine, in a critical manner, the educational implications of these new teaching aids. This article is based on the proposed Koehler & Mishra (2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 called TPCK (Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge which is based on the construct of PCK Shulman (1987 to which is added the concept of "Technology" (T to those of "Pedagogy" (P and "Curriculum Content" (C. Connections and dynamic interactions between these three key components leading to different components to be considered in understanding the processes of integration of ICT in schools. Good educational practices with ICT are multidimensional and complex actions that require (1 understand the representation and formulation of concepts and procedures for their understanding through ICT, (2 develop constructivist teaching strategies that use ICT for teaching content curriculum, (3 know the difficulties in learning concepts and how ICT can help overcome them, and (4 knowing the students' prior knowledge and the epistemology of the curriculum to understand how ICT can be used to build on pre-existing knowledge and develop new epistemologies. These skills clearly go beyond the isolation that has an expert in a curriculum (teacher of a discipline, an expert in IT (engineer, or an

  15. What makes a good process model? Lessons learned from process mining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, van der W.M.P.

    2012-01-01

    There seems to be a never ending stream of new process modeling notations. Some of these notations are foundational and have been around for decades (e.g., Petri nets). Other notations are vendor specific, incremental, or are only popular for a short while. Discussions on the various competing

  16. From humanitarianism to good governance? Reflections on a Danish-Ethiopian aid model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilson, Fiona

    The report reflects on what people engaged in development research and practice mean by 'aid models'. Illustrating the argument is the history of an NGO alliance between Ethiopia and Denmark over the last 10 years. The report argues that 'northern' NGOs are often guilty of imposing new concepts a...

  17. Substandard model? At last, a good reason to opt for a sexier theory of particle physics

    CERN Multimedia

    Cho, A

    2001-01-01

    According to experimenters at Brookhaven, a tiny discrepancy in the magnetism of the muon may signal a crack in the Standard Model. The deviation could be the first piece of hard evidence for a more complete theory called supersymmetry (1 page).

  18. An Application of Structural Equation Modeling for Developing Good Teaching Characteristics Ontology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phiakoksong, Somjin; Niwattanakul, Suphakit; Angskun, Thara

    2013-01-01

    Ontology is a knowledge representation technique which aims to make knowledge explicit by defining the core concepts and their relationships. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a statistical technique which aims to explore the core factors from empirical data and estimates the relationship between these factors. This article presents an…

  19. Long-term culture of organotypic multicellular glioma spheroids: a good culture model for studying gliomas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaaijk, P.; Troost, D.; Das, P. K.; Leenstra, S.; Bosch, D. A.

    1995-01-01

    Gliomas, as well as other solid tumours, contain tumour stroma composed of connective tissue, macrophages, capillaries and other non-cellular constituents. Therefore, a homogeneous culture of tumour cells alone, as is often used as a culture model for gliomas, is not ideal to study all aspects of

  20. Nutritional programming of gastrointestinal tract development. Is the pig a good model for man?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilloteau, Paul; Zabielski, Romuald; Hammon, Harald M; Metges, Cornelia C

    2010-06-01

    The consequences of early-life nutritional programming in man and other mammalian species have been studied chiefly at the metabolic level. Very few studies, if any, have been performed in the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) as the target organ, but extensive GIT studies are needed since the GIT plays a key role in nutrient supply and has an impact on functions of the entire organism. The possible deleterious effects of nutritional programming at the metabolic level were discovered following epidemiological studies in human subjects, and confirmed in animal models. Investigating the impact of programming on GIT structure and function would need appropriate animal models due to ethical restrictions in the use of human subjects. The aim of the present review is to discuss the use of pigs as an animal model as a compromise between ethically acceptable animal studies and the requirement of data which can be interpolated to the human situation. In nutritional programming studies, rodents are the most frequently used model for man, but GIT development and digestive function in rodents are considerably different from those in man. In that aspect, the pig GIT is much closer to the human than that of rodents. The swine species is closely comparable with man in many nutritional and digestive aspects, and thus provides ample opportunity to be used in investigations on the consequences of nutritional programming for the GIT. In particular, the 'sow-piglets' dyad could be a useful tool to simulate the 'human mother-infant' dyad in studies which examine short-, middle- and long-term effects and is suggested as the reference model.

  1. Modeling study of air pollution due to the manufacture of export goods in China's Pearl River Delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streets, David G; Yu, Carolyne; Bergin, Michael H; Wang, Xuemei; Carmichael, Gregory R

    2006-04-01

    The Pearl River Delta is a major manufacturing region on the south coast of China that produces more than dollar 100 billion of goods annually for export to North America, Europe, and other parts of Asia. Considerable air pollution is caused by the manufacturing industries themselves and by the power plants, trucks, and ships that support them. We estimate that 10-40% of emissions of primary SO2, NO(x), RSP, and VOC in the region are caused by export-related activities. Using the STEM-2K1 atmospheric transport model, we estimate that these emissions contribute 5-30% of the ambient concentrations of SO2, NO(x), NO(z), and VOC in the region. One reason that the exported goods are cheap and therefore attractive to consumers in developed countries is that emission controls are lacking or of low performance. We estimate that state-of-the-art controls could be installed at an annualized cost of dollar 0.3-3 billion, representing 0.3-3% of the value of the goods produced. We conclude that mitigation measures could be adopted without seriously affecting the prices of exported goods and would achieve considerable human health and other benefits in the form of reduced air pollutant concentrations in densely populated urban areas.

  2. Why Enforcing its UNCAC Commitments Would be Good for Russia: A Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael P. BARRY

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Russia has ratified the UN Convention Against Corruption but has not successfully enforced it. This paper uses updated GTAP data to reconstruct a computable general equilibrium (CGE model to quantify the macroeconomic effects of corruption in Russia. Corruption is found to cost the Russian economy billions of dollars a year. A conclusion of the paper is that implementing and enforcing the UNCAC would be of significant economic benefit to Russia and its people.

  3. Managing for sustainable journalism under authoritarianism: innovative business models aimed at good practice

    OpenAIRE

    Sakr, N.

    2017-01-01

    In the repressive political climate prevailing in Egypt in 2013-15, news ventures aspiring to high standards of reporting were forced to innovate in their business models and management techniques in order to underpin ethical journalistic practice that served the public need for information. This chapter explores the interactions between media business innovation and sustainable journalism by analyzing how a number of Egyptian start-ups experimented with novel revenue streams and news service...

  4. A goodness of fit and validity study of the Korean radiological technologists' core job competency model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Chang Seon; Cho, A Ra; Hur, Yera; Choi, Seong Youl

    2017-01-01

    Radiological Technologists deals with the life of a person which means professional competency is essential for the job. Nevertheless, there have been no studies in Korea that identified the job competence of radiologists. In order to define the core job competencies of Korean radiologists and to present the factor models, 147 questionnaires on job competency of radiology were analyzed using 'PASW Statistics Version 18.0' and 'AMOS Version 18.0'. The valid model consisted of five core job competencies ('Patient management', 'Health and safety', 'Operation of equipment', 'Procedures and management') and 17 sub – competencies. As a result of the factor analysis, the RMSEA value was 0.1 and the CFI, and TLI values were close to 0.9 in the measurement model of the five core job competencies. The validity analysis showed that the mean variance extraction was 0.5 or more and the conceptual reliability value was 0.7 or more , And there was a high correlation between subordinate competencies included in each subordinate competencies. The results of this study are expected to provide specific information necessary for the training and management of human resources centered on competence by clearly showing the job competence required for radiologists in Korea's health environment

  5. A Critical Review of Construct Indicators and Measurement Model Misspecification in Marketing and Consumer Research.

    OpenAIRE

    Jarvis, Cheryl Burke; MacKenzie, Scott B; Podsakoff, Philip M

    2003-01-01

    A review of the literature suggests that few studies use formative indicator measurement models, even though they should. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to (a) discuss the distinction between formative and reflective measurement models, (b) develop a set of conceptual criteria that can be used to determine whether a construct should be modeled as having formative or reflective indicators, (c) review the marketing literature to obtain an estimate of the extent of measurement model ...

  6. When It’s Good to Feel Bad: An Evolutionary Model of Guilt and Apology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarita Rosenstock

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We use techniques from evolutionary game theory to analyze the conditions under which guilt can provide individual fitness benefits, and so evolve. In particular, we focus on the benefits of guilty apology. We consider models where actors err in an iterated prisoner’s dilemma and have the option to apologize. Guilt either improves the trustworthiness of apology or imposes a cost on actors who apologize. We analyze the stability and likelihood of evolution of such a “guilt-prone” strategy against cooperators, defectors, grim triggers, and individuals who offer fake apologies, but continue to defect. We find that in evolutionary models guilty apology is more likely to evolve in cases where actors interact repeatedly over long periods of time, where the costs of apology are low or moderate, and where guilt is hard to fake. Researchers interested in naturalized ethics, and emotion researchers, can employ these results to assess the plausibility of fuller accounts of the evolution of guilt.

  7. Earthworms – good indicators for forest disturbance

    OpenAIRE

    YAHYA KOOCH; KATAYOUN HAGHVERDI

    2014-01-01

    In temperate forests, formation of canopy gaps by windthrow is a characteristic natural disturbance event. Little work has been done on the effects of canopy gaps on soil properties and fauna, especially earthworms as ecosystem engineers. We conducted a study to examine the reaction of earthworms (density/biomass) and different soil properties (i.e., soil moisture, pH, organic matter, total N, and available Ca) to different canopy gap areas in 25-ha areas of Liresar district beech forest loca...

  8. Comparison of hypertabastic survival model with other unimodal hazard rate functions using a goodness-of-fit test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahir, M Ramzan; Tran, Quang X; Nikulin, Mikhail S

    2017-05-30

    We studied the problem of testing a hypothesized distribution in survival regression models when the data is right censored and survival times are influenced by covariates. A modified chi-squared type test, known as Nikulin-Rao-Robson statistic, is applied for the comparison of accelerated failure time models. This statistic is used to test the goodness-of-fit for hypertabastic survival model and four other unimodal hazard rate functions. The results of simulation study showed that the hypertabastic distribution can be used as an alternative to log-logistic and log-normal distribution. In statistical modeling, because of its flexible shape of hazard functions, this distribution can also be used as a competitor of Birnbaum-Saunders and inverse Gaussian distributions. The results for the real data application are shown. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Keep Up the Good Work! Age-Moderated Mediation Model on Intention to Retire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Dordoni

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In European nations, the aging of the workforce is a major issue which is increasingly addressed both in national and organizational policies in order to sustain older workers' employability and to encourage longer working lives. Particularly older workers' employability can be viewed an important issue as this has the potential to motivate them for their work and change their intention to retire. Based on lifespan development theories and Van der Heijden's ‘employability enhancement model’, this paper develops and tests an age-moderated mediation model (which refers to the processes that we want to test in this model, linking older workers' (55 years old and over perceptions of job support for learning (job-related factor and perceptions of negative age stereotypes on productivity (organizational factor, on the one hand, and their intention to retire, on the other hand, via their participation in employability enhancing activities, being the mediator in our model. A total of 2,082 workers aged 55 years and above were included in the analyses. Results revealed that the two proposed relationships between the predictors and intention to retire were mediated by participation in employability enhancing activities, reflecting two mechanisms through which work context affects intention to retire (namely ‘a gain spiral and a loss spiral’. Multi-Group SEM analyses, distinguishing between two age groups (55–60 and 61–65 years old, revealed different paths for the two distinguished groups of older workers. Employability mediated the relationship between perceptions of job support for learning and intention to retire in both age groups, whereas it only mediated the relationship between perceptions of negative age stereotypes and intention to retire in the 55–60 group. From our empirical study, we may conclude that employability is an important factor in the light of older workers' intention to retire. In order to motivate this category of

  10. Testing for Nonuniform Differential Item Functioning with Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Carol M.; Grimm, Kevin J.

    2011-01-01

    In extant literature, multiple indicator multiple cause (MIMIC) models have been presented for identifying items that display uniform differential item functioning (DIF) only, not nonuniform DIF. This article addresses, for apparently the first time, the use of MIMIC models for testing both uniform and nonuniform DIF with categorical indicators. A…

  11. Developing of Indicators of an E-Learning Benchmarking Model for Higher Education Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sae-Khow, Jirasak

    2014-01-01

    This study was the development of e-learning indicators used as an e-learning benchmarking model for higher education institutes. Specifically, it aimed to: 1) synthesize the e-learning indicators; 2) examine content validity by specialists; and 3) explore appropriateness of the e-learning indicators. Review of related literature included…

  12. Accidental goodness?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne

    In postmodern capitalist market economies, management of the single organisation is bound to be guided by several rationales, which are in conflict with each other. For some writers this perception leads to the argument, that conceptions of management should strive towards goals beyond the present...... society. For others, the handling of plural perspectives is just a management discipline. However these positions seem to share a focus on organization as a the arena for the organization of the good. The contribution looks at the management of occupational accidents as an example of striving for good...

  13. A decision support model for identification and prioritization of key performance indicators in the logistics industry

    OpenAIRE

    Kucukaltan, Berk; Irani, Zahir; Aktas, Emel

    2016-01-01

    Performance measurement of logistics companies is based upon various performance indicators. Yet, in the logistics industry, there are several vaguenesses, such as deciding on key indicators and determining interrelationships between performance indicators. In order to resolve these vaguenesses, this paper first presents the stakeholder-informed Balanced Scorecard (BSC) model, by incorporating financial (e.g. cost) and non-financial (e.g. social media) performance indicators, with a comprehen...

  14. Good Faith

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fomcenco, Alex

    2017-01-01

    This article outlines the current state of law in Canada in respect to good faith in contratial relations. The topic is highly relevant due to expected growth in the numbers of contracts concluded between European and Canadian enterprises in the wake of adoption of the Comprehensive Economic...

  15. Prioritizing public- private partnership models for public hospitals of iran based on performance indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholamzadeh Nikjoo, Raana; Jabbari Beyrami, Hossein; Jannati, Ali; Asghari Jaafarabadi, Mohammad

    2012-01-01

    The present study was conducted to scrutinize Public- Private Partnership (PPP) models in public hospitals of different countries based on performance indicators in order to se-lect appropriated models for Iran hospitals. In this mixed (quantitative-qualitative) study, systematic review and expert panel has been done to identify varied models of PPP as well as performance indicators. In the second step we prioritized performance indicator and PPP models based on selected performance indicators by Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP) technique. The data were analyzed by Excel 2007 and Expert Choice11 software's. In quality - effectiveness area, indicators like the rate of hospital infections (100%), hospital accidents prevalence rate (73%), pure rate of hospital mortality (63%), patient satisfaction percentage (53%), in accessibility equity area indicators such as average inpatient waiting time (100%) and average outpatient waiting time (74%), and in financial - efficiency area, indicators including average length of stay (100%), bed occupation ratio (99%), specific income to total cost ratio (97%) have been chosen to be the most key performance indicators. In the pri¬oritization of the PPP models clinical outsourcing, management, privatization, BOO (build, own, operate) and non-clinical outsourcing models, achieved high priority for various performance in¬dicator areas. This study had been provided the most common PPP options in the field of public hospitals and had gathered suitable evidences from experts for choosing appropriate PPP option for public hospitals. Effect of private sector presence in public hospital performance, based on which PPP options undertaken, will be different.

  16. Conceptualizing a model: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force--2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Mark; Russell, Louise B; Paltiel, A David; Chambers, Michael; McEwan, Phil; Krahn, Murray

    2012-01-01

    The appropriate development of a model begins with understanding the problem that is being represented. The aim of this article was to provide a series of consensus-based best practices regarding the process of model conceptualization. For the purpose of this series of articles, we consider the development of models whose purpose is to inform medical decisions and health-related resource allocation questions. We specifically divide the conceptualization process into two distinct components: the conceptualization of the problem, which converts knowledge of the health care process or decision into a representation of the problem, followed by the conceptualization of the model itself, which matches the attributes and characteristics of a particular modeling type with the needs of the problem being represented. Recommendations are made regarding the structure of the modeling team, agreement on the statement of the problem, the structure, perspective, and target population of the model, and the interventions and outcomes represented. Best practices relating to the specific characteristics of model structure and which characteristics of the problem might be most easily represented in a specific modeling method are presented. Each section contains a number of recommendations that were iterated among the authors, as well as among the wider modeling taskforce, jointly set up by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Conceptualizing a model: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Mark; Russell, Louise B; Paltiel, A David; Chambers, Michael; McEwan, Phil; Krahn, Murray

    2012-01-01

    The appropriate development of a model begins with understanding the problem that is being represented. The aim of this article is to provide a series of consensus-based best practices regarding the process of model conceptualization. For the purpose of this series of papers, the authors consider the development of models whose purpose is to inform medical decisions and health-related resource allocation questions. They specifically divide the conceptualization process into two distinct components: the conceptualization of the problem, which converts knowledge of the health care process or decision into a representation of the problem, followed by the conceptualization of the model itself, which matches the attributes and characteristics of a particular modeling type to the needs of the problem being represented. Recommendations are made regarding the structure of the modeling team, agreement on the statement of the problem, the structure, perspective and target population of the model, and the interventions and outcomes represented. Best practices relating to the specific characteristics of model structure, and which characteristics of the problem might be most easily represented in a specific modeling method, are presented. Each section contains a number of recommendations that were iterated among the authors, as well as the wider modeling taskforce, jointly set up by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making.

  18. An overview of GOOD

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paredaens, J.; Van den Bussche, J.; Andries, M.; Gemis, M.; Gyssens, M.; Thyssens, I.; Van Gucht, D.; Sarathy, V.; Saxton, L.V.

    1992-01-01

    GOOD is an acronym, standing for Graph-Oriented Object Database. GOOD is being developed as a joint research effort of Indiana University and the University of Antwerp. The main thrust behind the project is to indicate general concepts that are fundamental to any graph-oriented database

  19. Interpretive Structural Model of Key Performance Indicators for Sustainable Maintenance Evaluatian in Rubber Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amrina, E.; Yulianto, A.

    2018-03-01

    Sustainable maintenance is a new challenge for manufacturing companies to realize sustainable development. In this paper, an interpretive structural model is developed to evaluate sustainable maintenance in the rubber industry. The initial key performance indicators (KPIs) is identified and derived from literature and then validated by academic and industry experts. As a result, three factors of economic, social, and environmental dividing into a total of thirteen indicators are proposed as the KPIs for sustainable maintenance evaluation in rubber industry. Interpretive structural modeling (ISM) methodology is applied to develop a network structure model of the KPIs consisting of three levels. The results show the economic factor is regarded as the basic factor, the social factor as the intermediate factor, while the environmental factor indicated to be the leading factor. Two indicators of social factor i.e. labor relationship, and training and education have both high driver and dependence power, thus categorized as the unstable indicators which need further attention. All the indicators of environmental factor and one indicator of social factor are indicated as the most influencing indicator. The interpretive structural model hoped can aid the rubber companies in evaluating sustainable maintenance performance.

  20. Work, Health, Music: The enduring Rusyn model of a good life amid changing socioeconomic contexts of progress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Cantin

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Rusyns in Eastern and Central Europe have experience with two predominant models of “progress”: the Soviet-style communist and the neoliberal.  Proponents of each system promised to better the lives of all but did not take into account what “better” meant to local populations, including Rusyns.  Increasingly, European governmental and nongovernmental organizations are redefining notions of progress and development to accord with values of sustainability and a capability approach (CA to well-being.  Giovanola (2005 and Robeyns (2005 have argued that scholars of the CA need to better develop concepts of “personhood” and “human flourishing”, and to better explain the importance of social group membership and norms to living a valued life.  The emerging anthropological focus on well-being, emphasizing culturally specific definitions of what happiness and a good life mean, can provide these conceptualizations.  As a case in point, I use freelist and interview data obtained from residents in the Prešov Region of Slovakia and the Zakarpattia Oblast of Ukraine along with Rusyn cultural narratives drawn from poems, folktales, plays, songs, interviews, and speeches to identify prevalent models of “personhood” and “a good life”. I discuss how these narratives intersect and diverge with discourses of happiness and progress along with the implications for Rusyns' ability to flourish. 

  1. The Use of National Systems of Innovation Models to Develop Indicators of Innovation and Technological Capacity

    OpenAIRE

    Holbrook, J. A.

    1997-01-01

    This paper addresses various models that can be used to assess indicators of innovation and technical capacity. It stresses the importance of looking at the national system of innovation (NSI) to gain a complete understanding of industry capacity.

  2. "Good mothering" or "good citizenship"?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Maree; Kerridge, Ian H; Jordens, Christopher F C

    2012-03-01

    Umbilical cord blood banking is one of many biomedical innovations that confront pregnant women with new choices about what they should do to secure their own and their child's best interests. Many mothers can now choose to donate their baby's umbilical cord blood (UCB) to a public cord blood bank or pay to store it in a private cord blood bank. Donation to a public bank is widely regarded as an altruistic act of civic responsibility. Paying to store UCB may be regarded as a "unique opportunity" to provide "insurance" for the child's future. This paper reports findings from a survey of Australian women that investigated the decision to either donate or store UCB. We conclude that mothers are faced with competing discourses that force them to choose between being a "good mother" and fulfilling their role as a "good citizen." We discuss this finding with reference to the concept of value pluralism.

  3. Global Sensitivity Analysis as Good Modelling Practices tool for the identification of the most influential process parameters of the primary drying step during freeze-drying.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bockstal, Pieter-Jan; Mortier, Séverine Thérèse F C; Corver, Jos; Nopens, Ingmar; Gernaey, Krist V; De Beer, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    Pharmaceutical batch freeze-drying is commonly used to improve the stability of biological therapeutics. The primary drying step is regulated by the dynamic settings of the adaptable process variables, shelf temperature T s and chamber pressure P c . Mechanistic modelling of the primary drying step leads to the optimal dynamic combination of these adaptable process variables in function of time. According to Good Modelling Practices, a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is essential for appropriate model building. In this study, both a regression-based and variance-based GSA were conducted on a validated mechanistic primary drying model to estimate the impact of several model input parameters on two output variables, the product temperature at the sublimation front T i and the sublimation rate ṁ sub . T s was identified as most influential parameter on both T i and ṁ sub , followed by P c and the dried product mass transfer resistance α Rp for T i and ṁ sub , respectively. The GSA findings were experimentally validated for ṁ sub via a Design of Experiments (DoE) approach. The results indicated that GSA is a very useful tool for the evaluation of the impact of different process variables on the model outcome, leading to essential process knowledge, without the need for time-consuming experiments (e.g., DoE). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. A Monte Carlo-adjusted goodness-of-fit test for parametric models describing spatial point patterns

    KAUST Repository

    Dao, Ngocanh

    2014-04-03

    Assessing the goodness-of-fit (GOF) for intricate parametric spatial point process models is important for many application fields. When the probability density of the statistic of the GOF test is intractable, a commonly used procedure is the Monte Carlo GOF test. Additionally, if the data comprise a single dataset, a popular version of the test plugs a parameter estimate in the hypothesized parametric model to generate data for theMonte Carlo GOF test. In this case, the test is invalid because the resulting empirical level does not reach the nominal level. In this article, we propose a method consisting of nested Monte Carlo simulations which has the following advantages: the bias of the resulting empirical level of the test is eliminated, hence the empirical levels can always reach the nominal level, and information about inhomogeneity of the data can be provided.We theoretically justify our testing procedure using Taylor expansions and demonstrate that it is correctly sized through various simulation studies. In our first data application, we discover, in agreement with Illian et al., that Phlebocarya filifolia plants near Perth, Australia, can follow a homogeneous Poisson clustered process that provides insight into the propagation mechanism of these plants. In our second data application, we find, in contrast to Diggle, that a pairwise interaction model provides a good fit to the micro-anatomy data of amacrine cells designed for analyzing the developmental growth of immature retina cells in rabbits. This article has supplementary material online. © 2013 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

  5. Dynamic Transmission Modeling : A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group-5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, Richard; Fisman, David; Zaric, Gregory S.; Postma, Maarten; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Edmunds, John; Brisson, Marc

    2012-01-01

    The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the

  6. Dynamic Transmission Modeling : A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, Richard; Fisman, David; Zaric, Gregory S.; Postma, Maarten; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Edmunds, John; Brisson, Marc

    2012-01-01

    The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the

  7. Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Matthew J.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Ziolkowski, David J.

    2016-01-01

    There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

  8. Teaching Quality Management Model for the Training of Innovation Ability and the Multilevel Decomposition Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xingjiang; Yao, Chen; Zheng, Jianmin

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the training of undergraduate students' innovation ability. On top of the theoretical framework of the Quality Function Deployment (QFD), we propose a teaching quality management model. Based on this model, we establish a multilevel decomposition indicator system, which integrates innovation ability characterized by four…

  9. A Prediction Model for Community Colleges Using Graduation Rate as the Performance Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosai, Susan

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis a prediction model using graduation rate as the performance indicator is obtained for community colleges for three cohort years, 2003, 2004, and 2005 in the states of California, Florida, and Michigan. Multiple Regression analysis, using an aggregate of seven predictor variables, was employed in determining this prediction model.…

  10. A combined sensitivity analysis and kriging surrogate modeling for early validation of health indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamoureux, Benjamin; Mechbal, Nazih; Massé, Jean-Rémi

    2014-01-01

    To increase the dependability of complex systems, one solution is to assess their state of health continuously through the monitoring of variables sensitive to potential degradation modes. When computed in an operating environment, these variables, known as health indicators, are subject to many uncertainties. Hence, the stochastic nature of health assessment combined with the lack of data in design stages makes it difficult to evaluate the efficiency of a health indicator before the system enters into service. This paper introduces a method for early validation of health indicators during the design stages of a system development process. This method uses physics-based modeling and uncertainties propagation to create simulated stochastic data. However, because of the large number of parameters defining the model and its computation duration, the necessary runtime for uncertainties propagation is prohibitive. Thus, kriging is used to obtain low computation time estimations of the model outputs. Moreover, sensitivity analysis techniques are performed upstream to determine the hierarchization of the model parameters and to reduce the dimension of the input space. The validation is based on three types of numerical key performance indicators corresponding to the detection, identification and prognostic processes. After having introduced and formalized the framework of uncertain systems modeling and the different performance metrics, the issues of sensitivity analysis and surrogate modeling are addressed. The method is subsequently applied to the validation of a set of health indicators for the monitoring of an aircraft engine’s pumping unit

  11. SUDOQU: a new dose model to derive criteria for surface contamination of non-food (consumer) goods, containers and conveyances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Dillen, Teun

    2015-01-01

    The Fukushima nuclear accident (Japan, 11 March 2011) revealed the need for well-founded criteria for surface contamination and associated screening levels related to the import of non-food (consumer) goods, containers and conveyances. The only available European-harmonised criteria are those laid down in the IAEA transport regulations, but these criteria date back from the early 1960's and only apply to the safe transport of radioactive materials. The main problem is that a generic dose-assessment model for consumer products is missing. Therefore, RIVM (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) developed a new methodology entitled SUDOQU (Surface Dose Quantification) to calculate the annual effective dose for both consumers and non-radiological workers, addressing issues of removability of surface contamination. The methodology can be used to derive criteria and screening levels for surface contamination and could serve as a useful tool for policy-makers and radiation-protection specialists. (authors)

  12. Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) manufacturing of advanced therapy medicinal products: a novel tailored model for optimizing performance and estimating costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou-El-Enein, Mohamed; Römhild, Andy; Kaiser, Daniel; Beier, Carola; Bauer, Gerhard; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Reinke, Petra

    2013-03-01

    Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMP) have gained considerable attention in academia due to their therapeutic potential. Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) principles ensure the quality and sterility of manufacturing these products. We developed a model for estimating the manufacturing costs of cell therapy products and optimizing the performance of academic GMP-facilities. The "Clean-Room Technology Assessment Technique" (CTAT) was tested prospectively in the GMP facility of BCRT, Berlin, Germany, then retrospectively in the GMP facility of the University of California-Davis, California, USA. CTAT is a two-level model: level one identifies operational (core) processes and measures their fixed costs; level two identifies production (supporting) processes and measures their variable costs. The model comprises several tools to measure and optimize performance of these processes. Manufacturing costs were itemized using adjusted micro-costing system. CTAT identified GMP activities with strong correlation to the manufacturing process of cell-based products. Building best practice standards allowed for performance improvement and elimination of human errors. The model also demonstrated the unidirectional dependencies that may exist among the core GMP activities. When compared to traditional business models, the CTAT assessment resulted in a more accurate allocation of annual expenses. The estimated expenses were used to set a fee structure for both GMP facilities. A mathematical equation was also developed to provide the final product cost. CTAT can be a useful tool in estimating accurate costs for the ATMPs manufactured in an optimized GMP process. These estimates are useful when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of these novel interventions. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Prioritizing Public- Private Partnership Models for Public Hospitals of Iran Based on Performance Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Asghari Jaafarabadi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The present study was conducted to scrutinize Public- Private Partnership (PPP models in public hospitals of different countries based on performance indicators in order to se-lect appropriated models for Iran hospitals.Methods: In this mixed (quantitative-qualitative study, systematic review and expert panel hasbeen done to identify varied models of PPP as well as performance indicators. In the second stepwe prioritized performance indicator and PPP models based on selected performance indicatorsby Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP technique. The data were analyzed by Excel 2007 andExpert Choice11 software’s.Results: In quality – effectiveness area, indicators like the rate of hospital infections(100%, hospital accidents prevalence rate (73%, pure rate of hospital mortality (63%, patientsatisfaction percentage (53%, in accessibility equity area indicators such as average inpatientwaiting time (100% and average outpatient waiting time (74%, and in financial – efficiency area,indicators including average length of stay (100%, bed occupation ratio (99%, specific incometo total cost ratio (97% have been chosen to be the most key performance indicators. In the prioritizationof the PPP models clinical outsourcing, management, privatization, BOO (build, own,operate and non-clinical outsourcing models, achieved high priority for various performance indicatorareas.Conclusion: This study had been provided the most common PPP options in the field of public hospitals and had gathered suitable evidences from experts for choosing appropriate PPP option for public hospitals. Effect of private sector presence in public hospital performance, based on which PPP options undertaken, will be different.

  14. Variability of indicator values for ozone production sensitivity: a model study in Switzerland and San Joaquin Valley (California)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Keller, J.; Prevot, A.S.H.; Chenghsuan Lu; Chang, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    The threshold values of indicator species and ratios delineating the transition between NO x and VOC sensitivity of ozone formation are assumed to be universal by various investigators. However, our previous studies suggested that threshold values might vary according to the locations and conditions. In this study, threshold values derived from various model simulations at two different locations (the area of Switzerland by UAM Model and San Joaquin Valley of Central California by SAQM Model) are examined using a new approach for defining NO x and VOC sensitive regimes. Possible definitions for the distinction of NO x and VOC sensitive ozone production regimes are given. The dependence of the threshold values for indicators and indicator ratios such as NO y , O 3 /NO z , HCHO/NO y , and H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 on the definition of NO x and VOC sensitivity is discussed. Then the variations of threshold values under low emission conditions and in two different days are examined in both areas to check whether the models respond consistently to changes in environmental conditions. In both cases, threshold values are shifted similarly when emissions are reduced. Changes in the wind fields and aging of the photochemical oxidants seem to cause the day-to-day variation of the threshold values. O 3 /NO z and HCHO/NO y indicators are predicted to be unsatisfactory to separate the NO x and VOC sensitive regimes. Although NO y and H 2 O 2 /HNO 3 provide a good separation of the two regimes, threshold values are affected by changes in the environmental conditions studied in this work. (author)

  15. Done good.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, A L

    2015-01-01

    How did bioethics manage to grow, flourish and ultimately do so well from a very unpromising birth in the 1970s? Many explanations have been advanced. Some ascribe the field's growth to a puzzling, voluntary abnegation of moral authority by medicine to non-physicians. Some think bioethics survived by selling out to the biomedical establishment-public and private. This transaction involved bestowing moral approbation on all manner of biomedicine's doings for a seat at a well-stocked funding table. Some see a sort of clever intellectual bamboozlement at work wherein bioethicists pitched a moral elixir of objective expertise that the morally needy but unsophisticated in medicine and the biological sciences were eager to swallow. While each of these reasons has its defenders, I think the main reason that bioethics did well was that it did good. By using the media to move into the public arena, the field engaged the public imagination, provoked dialogue and debate, and contributed to policy changes that benefitted patients and healthcare providers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of model output - a step towards robust safety indicators?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broed, R.; Pereira, A.; Moberg, L.

    2004-01-01

    The protection of the environment from ionising radiation challenges the radioecological community with the issue of harmonising disparate safety indicators. These indicators should preferably cover the whole spectrum of model predictions on chemo-toxic and radiation impact of contaminants. In question is not only the protection of man and biota but also of abiotic systems. In many cases modelling will constitute the basis for an evaluation of potential impact. It is recognised that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of model output will play an important role in the 'construction' of safety indicators that are robust, reliable and easy to explain to all groups of stakeholders including the general public. However, environmental models of transport of radionuclides have some extreme characteristics. They are, a) complex, b) non-linear, c) include a huge number of input parameters, d) input parameters are associated with large or very large uncertainties, e) parameters are often correlated to each other, f) uncertainties other than parameter-driven may be present in the modelling system, g) space variability and time-dependence of parameters are present, h) model predictions may cover geological time scales. Consequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are non-trivial tasks, challenging the decision-maker when it comes to the interpretation of safety indicators or the application of regulatory criteria. In this work we use the IAEA model ISAM, to make a set of Monte Carlo calculations. The ISAM model includes several nuclides and decay chains, many compartments and variable parameters covering the range of nuclide migration pathways from the near field to the biosphere. The goal of our calculations is to make a global sensitivity analysis. After extracting the non-influential parameters, the M.C. calculations are repeated with those parameters frozen. Reducing the number of parameters to a few ones will simplify the interpretation of the results and the use

  17. Geological modeling by an indicator kriging approach applied to a limestone deposit in Indiara city - Goiás

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Elias Carneiro Pereira

    Full Text Available Abstract The mineral exploration activity consists of a set of successive stages that are interdependent on each other, in which the main goal is to discover and subsequently evaluate a mineral deposit for the feasibility of its extraction. This process involves setting the shape, dimensions and grades for eventual production. Geological modeling determines the orebody's possible format in subsoil, which can be done by two approaches: vertical sections (deterministic methods or geostatistical methods. The latter approach is currently being preferred, as it is a more accurate alternative and therefore, more reliable for establishing the physical format of orebodies, especially in instances where geologic boundaries are soft and/or with widely spaced sample information. This study uses the concept of indicator kriging (IK to model the geologic boundaries of a limestone deposit located at Indiara city, Goiás State, Brazil. In general, the results indicated a good adherence in relation to samples. However, there are reasonable differences, particularly in lithological domains with a small number of samples in relation to the total amount sampled. Therefore, the results showed that there is a need for additional sampling to better delineate the geological contacts, especially between carbonate and non-carbonate rocks. Uncertainty maps confirmed this necessity and also indicated potential sites for future sampling; information that would not be obtained by usage of deterministic methods.

  18. Model based on diffuse logic for the construction of indicators of urban vulnerability in natural phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia L, Carlos Eduardo; Hurtado G, Jorge Eduardo

    2003-01-01

    Upon considering the vulnerability of a urban system in a holistic way and taking into account some natural, technological and social factors, a model based upon a system of fuzzy logic, allowing to estimate the vulnerability of any system under natural phenomena potentially catastrophic is proposed. The model incorporates quantitative and qualitative variables in a dynamic system, in which variations in one of them have a positive or negative impact over the rest. An urban system model and an indicator model to determine the vulnerability due to natural phenomena were designed

  19. Can rational models be good accounts of developmental change? The case of language development at two time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Colin R; Gerken, LouAnn

    2012-01-01

    Rational models of human perception and cognition have allowed researchers new ways to look at learning and the ability to make inferences from data. But how good are such models at accounting for developmental change? In this chapter, we address this question in the domain of language development, focusing on the speed with which developmental change takes place, and classifying different types of language development as either fast or slow. From the pattern of fast and slow development observed, we hypothesize that rational learning processes are generally well suited for handling fast processes over small amounts of input data. In contrast, we suggest that associative learning processes are generally better suited to slow development, in which learners accumulate information about what is typical of their language over time. Finally, although one system may be dominant for a particular component of language learning, we speculate that both systems frequently interact, with the associative system providing a source of emergent hypotheses to be evaluated by the rational system and the rational system serving to highlight which aspects of the learner's input need to be processed in greater depth by the associative system.

  20. Rainfall-induced fecal indicator organisms transport from manured fields: model sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Gonzalo; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Whelan, Gene; Yakirevich, Alexander M; Guber, Andrey; Gish, Timothy J

    2014-02-01

    Microbial quality of surface waters attracts attention due to food- and waterborne disease outbreaks. Fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) are commonly used for the microbial pollution level evaluation. Models predicting the fate and transport of FIOs are required to design and evaluate best management practices that reduce the microbial pollution in ecosystems and water sources and thus help to predict the risk of food and waterborne diseases. In this study we performed a sensitivity analysis for the KINEROS/STWIR model developed to predict the FIOs transport out of manured fields to other fields and water bodies in order to identify input variables that control the transport uncertainty. The distributions of model input parameters were set to encompass values found from three-year experiments at the USDA-ARS OPE3 experimental site in Beltsville and publicly available information. Sobol' indices and complementary regression trees were used to perform the global sensitivity analysis of the model and to explore the interactions between model input parameters on the proportion of FIO removed from fields. Regression trees provided a useful visualization of the differences in sensitivity of the model output in different parts of the input variable domain. Environmental controls such as soil saturation, rainfall duration and rainfall intensity had the largest influence in the model behavior, whereas soil and manure properties ranked lower. The field length had only moderate effect on the model output sensitivity to the model inputs. Among the manure-related properties the parameter determining the shape of the FIO release kinetic curve had the largest influence on the removal of FIOs from the fields. That underscored the need to better characterize the FIO release kinetics. Since the most sensitive model inputs are available in soil and weather databases or can be obtained using soil water models, results indicate the opportunity of obtaining large-scale estimates of FIO

  1. The Use of Indicators in Modified Historical Model to Estimate the Intrinsic Value of a Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gottwald Radim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article mentions several methods of a fundamental analysis used to value stocks. It primarily focuses on the historical model. This model enables undervalued, correctly valued and overvalued stocks to be identified. The model is further modified in the article, using selected accounting indicators. The modified model versions are applied to selected stocks in the SPAD segment, Prague Stock Exchange, within the 2005-2010 period. Empirical analysis is applied to a comparison of accuracy of the accounting indicator value estimates and accuracy of stock intrinsic value estimates, both separately for each stock and accounting indicator. The comparisons of accuracy of the accounting indicator value estimates and the accuracy of the stock intrinsic value estimates are also done based on the length of applied time period. With respect to the obvious fierce competition between stock issuers within the financial markets, the model enables potential investors, who are to select from an extensive offer of stocks, to make better informed investment decisions.

  2. Ocean Color Products Supporting the Assessment of Good Environmental Status: Development of a Spatial Distribution Model for the Seagrass Posidonia Oceanica (L.) Delille, 1813

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucchetta, M.; Taji, M. A.; Mangin, A.; Pastres, R.

    2015-12-01

    Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile, 1813 is a seagrass species endemic to the Mediterranean Sea, which is considered as one of the key habitats of the coastal areas. This species forms large meadows sensitive to several anthropogenic pressures, that can be regarded as indicators of environment quality in coastal environments and its distributional patterns should be take into account when evaluating the Environmental Status following the Ecosystem approach promoted by the Mediterranean Action Plan of UNEP and the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC). The aim of this study was to develop a Species Distribution Model for P. oceanica, to be applied to the whole Mediterranean North African coast, in order to obtain an estimation of the potential distribution of this species in the region to be considered as an indicator for the assessment of good Environmental Status. As the study area is a data-poor zone with regard to seagrass distribution (i.e. only for some areas detailed distribution maps are available), the Species Distribution Model (SDM) was calibrated using high resolution data from 5 Mediterranean sites, located in Italy and Spain and validated using available data from the North African coast. Usually, when developing SDMs species occupancy data is available at coarser resolution than the information of environmental variables, and thus has to be downscaled at the appropriate grain to be coupled to the environmental conditions. Tackling the case of P. oceanica we had to face the opposite problem: the quality (in terms of resolution) of the information on seagrass distribution is generally very high compared to the environmental data available over large scale in marine domains (e.g. global bathymetry data). The high resolution application and the model transfer (from calibration areas to North African coast) was possible taking advantage of Ocean Color products: the probability of presence of the species in a given area was modelled using a

  3. Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nevers, Meredith; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Whitman, Richard L.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

  4. Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually

  5. SPECTRAL COLOR INDICES BASED GEOSPATIAL MODELING OF SOIL ORGANIC MATTER IN CHITWAN DISTRICT, NEPAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. K. Mandal

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Space Technology provides a resourceful-cost effective means to assess soil nutrients essential for soil management plan. Soil organic matter (SOM is one of valuable controlling productivity of crops by providing nutrient in farming systems. Geospatial modeling of soil organic matter is essential if there is unavailability of soil test laboratories and its strong spatial correlation. In the present analysis, soil organic matter is modeled from satellite image derived spectral color indices. Brightness Index (BI, Coloration Index (CI, Hue Index (HI, Redness Index (RI and Saturation Index (SI were calculated by converting DN value to radiance and radiance to reflectance from Thematic Mapper image. Geospatial model was developed by regressing SOM with color indices and producing multiple regression model using stepwise regression technique. The multiple regression equation between SOM and spectral indices was significant with R = 0. 56 at 95% confidence level. The resulting MLR equation was then used for the spatial prediction for the entire study area. Redness Index was found higher significance in estimating the SOM. It was used to predict SOM as auxiliary variables using cokringing spatial interpolation technique. It was tested in seven VDCs of Chitwan district of Nepal using Thematic Mapper remotely sensed data. SOM was found to be measured ranging from 0.15% to 4.75 %, with a mean of 2.24 %. Remotely sensed data derived spectral color indices have the potential as useful auxiliary variables for estimating SOM content to generate soil fertility management plans.

  6. Rainfall-induced fecal indicator organisms transport from animal waste applied fields: model sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    The microbial quality of surface waters warrants attention because of associated food- and waterborne-disease outbreaks, and fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) are commonly used to evaluate levels of microbial pollution. Models that predict the fate and transport of FIOs are required for designing and...

  7. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  8. Network based early warning indicators of vegetation changes in a land–atmosphere model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, Z.; Dekker, S.C.; Rietkerk, M.; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Numerous model studies demonstrate that ecosystems might not shift smoothly with a gradual change in resource concentration. At specific points, vegetation can suddenly shift from one stable state to another. To predict such undesirable shifts, statistical indicators are proposed for early

  9. Use of tamper-indicating seals at model facility. Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logsdon, R.B.

    1984-01-01

    Tamper-indicating seals, when applied to containers of nuclear material, serve a vital safeguards function. Because of the importance of the seal in safeguards, it is essential that their acquisition, storage, and distribution be controlled effectively. These functions are described for the model facility

  10. Temporal Synchronization Analysis for Improving Regression Modeling of Fecal Indicator Bacteria Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Multiple linear regression models are often used to predict levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in recreational swimming waters based on independent variables (IVs) such as meteorologic, hydrodynamic, and water-quality measures. The IVs used for these analyses are traditiona...

  11. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T

    2011-07-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  12. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W.; Machado, Marcelo D.

    2011-01-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  13. New Indicated Mean Effective Pressure (IMEP) model for predicting crankshaft movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omran, Rabih; Younes, Rafic; Champoussin, Jean-Claude; Outbib, Rachid

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → IMEP is essential to estimate the indicated torque in internal combustion engine. → We proposed model which describes the IMEP-Low pressure and the IMEP-High pressure. → We studied the evolution of the IMEP with respect to the engine's variables. → We deduced the variables of influence that can be used to develop the models. → The IMEP model is compared to transient experimental New European Driving Cycle. - Abstract: Indicated Mean Effective Pressure models (IMEP) are essential to estimate the indicated torque in internal combustion engine; they also provide important information about the mechanical efficiency of the engine thermodynamic cycle which describes the conversion of the fuel combustion energy into mechanical work. In the past, many researches were made to improve the IMEP prediction and measurement techniques at different engine operating conditions. In this paper, we proposed a detailed IMEP model which separately describes the IMEP-Low pressure and the IMEP-High pressure of a modern diesel engine; the IMEP is the direct subtraction result between these two variables. We firstly studied the evolution of the IMEP HP and IMEP LP with respect to the engine's variables and then we deduced the variables of influence and the form of the equations that can be used to develop the models. Finally, the models' coefficients were determined based on experimental data collected on a steady state test bench and using the least square regression method. In addition, the IMEP HP model results were compared to transient experimental data collected on a chassis dynamometer test bench; the model results are in excellent agreement with the experimental data.

  14. Structural Modeling for the Comparison Indicators in Various Electricity Generating Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seong Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2006-01-01

    Comparison indicators of various power systems can be yielded by solving a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In reality, there are different grades of interdependence among the decision elements (e.g., decision goal, decision criteria, and decision alternatives). In our previous work, based on an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, an independence model was developed for the comparison indicators under the assumption that there is no interdependence among the decision elements. For handling different interdependence phenomena (e.g., independence, inner dependence, outer dependence, feedback effect, a combination thereof) among the decision elements, one of the simplest graph structures was investigated on the basis of an analytic network process (ANP) technique. In the present work, the main objective is to study an assessment model with a high grade of interactions among the decision elements. Comparison indicators (e.g., weighting factors, overall priority scores, and risk attitudes towards a nuclear power plant) for seven power generation systems are obtained

  15. Molluscan indicator species and their potential use in ecological status assessment using species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraitis, Manos L; Tsikopoulou, Irini; Geropoulos, Antonios; Dimitriou, Panagiotis D; Papageorgiou, Nafsika; Giannoulaki, Marianna; Valavanis, Vasilis D; Karakassis, Ioannis

    2018-05-24

    Marine habitat assessment using indicator species through Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was investigated. The bivalves: Corbula gibba and Flexopecten hyalinus were the indicator species characterizing disturbed and undisturbed areas respectively in terms of chlorophyll a concentration in Greece. The habitat suitability maps of these species reflected the overall ecological status of the area. The C. gibba model successfully predicted the occurrence of this species in areas with increased physical disturbance driven by chlorophyll a concentration, whereas the habitat map for F. hyalinus showed an increased probability of occurrence in chlorophyll-poor areas, affected mainly by salinity. We advocate the use of C. gibba as a proxy for eutrophication and the incorporation of this species in monitoring studies through SDM methods. For the Mediterranean Sea we suggest the use of F. hyalinus in SDM as an indicator of environmental stability and a possible forecasting tool for salinity fluctuations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Doing Good

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Frances; Sluhan, Anne

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how corporate philanthropy serves as a mechanism for building organizational commitment. Although much research has reported on the potential benefits of philanthropy and highlighted its impact on organizational commitment, reports are lacking on how philanthropic...... activities can be implemented to actively influence organizational commitment. We address this gap through a longitudinal qualitative study in a Danish family-owned firm, where we model how initiation of and participation in philanthropic activities encourages organizational commitment through...... an organizational identification process. Theoretically, we contribute to the literature by providing an in-depth processual perspective on how engagement in philanthropic activities facilitates value alignment between employees and their organization, and therein fosters organizational commitment. Practically...

  17. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Dorte Møller; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators. STUDY DESIGN: In a prospective multicenter study with 5235 consecutive pregnant women, diagnostic testing with a 2-hour 75-g oral glucose...... of the results from tested women to the whole group in question, a 2.4% prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity of the model was 80.6 (73.7-87.6) and 64.8 (63.5-66.1), respectively (95% CIs). CONCLUSION: Under ideal conditions, sensitivity of the model...

  18. Modelization of cognition, activity and motivation as indicators for Interactive Learning Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asmaa Darouich

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In Interactive Learning Environment (ILE, the cognitive activity and behavior of learners are the center of the researchers’ concerns. The improvement of learning through combining these axes as a structure of indicators for well-designed learning environment, encloses the measurement of the educational activity as a part of the learning process. In this paper, we propose a mathematical modeling approach based on learners actions to estimate the cognitive activity, learning behavior and motivation, in accordance with a proposed course content structure. This Cognitive indicator includes the study of knowledge, memory and reasoning. While, activity indicator aims to study effort, resistance and intensity. The results recovered on a sample of students with different levels of education, assume that the proposed approach presents a relation among all these indicators which is relatively reliable in the term of cognitive system.

  19. Using species abundance distribution models and diversity indices for biogeographical analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattorini, Simone; Rigal, François; Cardoso, Pedro; Borges, Paulo A. V.

    2016-01-01

    We examine whether Species Abundance Distribution models (SADs) and diversity indices can describe how species colonization status influences species community assembly on oceanic islands. Our hypothesis is that, because of the lack of source-sink dynamics at the archipelago scale, Single Island Endemics (SIEs), i.e. endemic species restricted to only one island, should be represented by few rare species and consequently have abundance patterns that differ from those of more widespread species. To test our hypothesis, we used arthropod data from the Azorean archipelago (North Atlantic). We divided the species into three colonization categories: SIEs, archipelagic endemics (AZEs, present in at least two islands) and native non-endemics (NATs). For each category, we modelled rank-abundance plots using both the geometric series and the Gambin model, a measure of distributional amplitude. We also calculated Shannon entropy and Buzas and Gibson's evenness. We show that the slopes of the regression lines modelling SADs were significantly higher for SIEs, which indicates a relative predominance of a few highly abundant species and a lack of rare species, which also depresses diversity indices. This may be a consequence of two factors: (i) some forest specialist SIEs may be at advantage over other, less adapted species; (ii) the entire populations of SIEs are by definition concentrated on a single island, without possibility for inter-island source-sink dynamics; hence all populations must have a minimum number of individuals to survive natural, often unpredictable, fluctuations. These findings are supported by higher values of the α parameter of the Gambin mode for SIEs. In contrast, AZEs and NATs had lower regression slopes, lower α but higher diversity indices, resulting from their widespread distribution over several islands. We conclude that these differences in the SAD models and diversity indices demonstrate that the study of these metrics is useful for

  20. Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Schermeyer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

  1. Advanced Good Cell Culture Practice for human primary, stem cell-derived and organoid models as well as microphysiological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamies, David; Bal-Price, Anna; Chesné, Christophe; Coecke, Sandra; Dinnyes, Andras; Eskes, Chantra; Grillari, Regina; Gstraunthaler, Gerhard; Hartung, Thomas; Jennings, Paul; Leist, Marcel; Martin, Ulrich; Passier, Robert; Schwamborn, Jens C; Stacey, Glyn N; Ellinger-Ziegelbauer, Heidrun; Daneshian, Mardas

    2018-04-13

    A major reason for the current reproducibility crisis in the life sciences is the poor implementation of quality control measures and reporting standards. Improvement is needed, especially regarding increasingly complex in vitro methods. Good Cell Culture Practice (GCCP) was an effort from 1996 to 2005 to develop such minimum quality standards also applicable in academia. This paper summarizes recent key developments in in vitro cell culture and addresses the issues resulting for GCCP, e.g. the development of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) and gene-edited cells. It further deals with human stem-cell-derived models and bioengineering of organo-typic cell cultures, including organoids, organ-on-chip and human-on-chip approaches. Commercial vendors and cell banks have made human primary cells more widely available over the last decade, increasing their use, but also requiring specific guidance as to GCCP. The characterization of cell culture systems including high-content imaging and high-throughput measurement technologies increasingly combined with more complex cell and tissue cultures represent a further challenge for GCCP. The increasing use of gene editing techniques to generate and modify in vitro culture models also requires discussion of its impact on GCCP. International (often varying) legislations and market forces originating from the commercialization of cell and tissue products and technologies are further impacting on the need for the use of GCCP. This report summarizes the recommendations of the second of two workshops, held in Germany in December 2015, aiming map the challenge and organize the process or developing a revised GCCP 2.0.

  2. Spatial correlation structure of the ionosphere predicted by geomagnetic indices and application to global field modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holschneider, M.; Ferrat, K.; Lesur, V.; Stolle, C.

    2017-12-01

    Ionospheric fields are modelled in terms of random structures taking into account a mean behaviour as well as random fluctuations which are described through two point correlation kernels. These kernels are estimated from long time series of numerical simulations from various models. These correlations are best expressed in SM system of coordinates. For the moment we limit ourselves to spatial correlations only in this coordinate system. We study the influence of various indices as possible predictor parameters for these correlations as well as seasonal effects. The various time series of ionospheric fields are stored in a HDF5 database which is accessible via a web interface. The obtained correlation structures serve as prior information to separate external and internal field components from observatory based measurements. We present a model that predicts the correlations as a function of time and some geomagnetic indices. First results of the inversion from observatory data are presented.

  3. Standards of care and quality indicators for multidisciplinary care models for psoriatic arthritis in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gratacós, Jordi; Luelmo, Jesús; Rodríguez, Jesús; Notario, Jaume; Marco, Teresa Navío; de la Cueva, Pablo; Busquets, Manel Pujol; Font, Mercè García; Joven, Beatriz; Rivera, Raquel; Vega, Jose Luis Alvarez; Álvarez, Antonio Javier Chaves; Parera, Ricardo Sánchez; Carrascosa, Jose Carlos Ruiz; Martínez, Fernando José Rodríguez; Sánchez, José Pardo; Olmos, Carlos Feced; Pujol, Conrad; Galindez, Eva; Barrio, Silvia Pérez; Arana, Ana Urruticoechea; Hergueta, Mercedes; Coto, Pablo; Queiro, Rubén

    2018-06-01

    To define and give priority to standards of care and quality indicators of multidisciplinary care for patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). A systematic literature review on PsA standards of care and quality indicators was performed. An expert panel of rheumatologists and dermatologists who provide multidisciplinary care was established. In a consensus meeting group, the experts discussed and developed the standards of care and quality indicators and graded their priority, agreement and also the feasibility (only for quality indicators) following qualitative methodology and a Delphi process. Afterwards, these results were discussed with 2 focus groups, 1 with patients, another with health managers. A descriptive analysis is presented. We obtained 25 standards of care (9 of structure, 9 of process, 7 of results) and 24 quality indicators (2 of structure, 5 of process, 17 of results). Standards of care include relevant aspects in the multidisciplinary care of PsA patients like an appropriate physical infrastructure and technical equipment, the access to nursing care, labs and imaging techniques, other health professionals and treatments, or the development of care plans. Regarding quality indicators, the definition of multidisciplinary care model objectives and referral criteria, the establishment of responsibilities and coordination among professionals and the active evaluation of patients and data collection were given a high priority. Patients considered all of them as important. This set of standards of care and quality indicators for the multidisciplinary care of patients with PsA should help improve quality of care in these patients.

  4. Use of Artificial Neural Network Models to Predict Indicator Organism Concentrations in an Urban Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mas, D. M.; Ahlfeld, D. P.

    2004-05-01

    Forecasting stream water quality is important for numerous aspects of resource protection and management. Fecal coliform and enteroccocus are primary indicator organisms used to assess potential pathogen contamination. Consequently, modeling the occurrence and concentration of fecal coliform and enterococcus is an important tool in watershed management. In addition, analyzing the relationship between model input and predicted indicator organisms is useful for elucidating possible sources of contamination and mechanisms of transport. While many process-based, statistical, and empirical models exist for water quality prediction, artificial neural network (ANN) models are increasingly being used for forecasting of water resources variables because ANNs are often capable of modeling complex systems for which behavioral rules are either unknown or difficult to simulate. The performance of ANNs compared to more established modeling approaches such as multiple linear regression (MLR) remains an importance research question. Data collected the U.S. Geological Survey in the lower Charles River in Massachusetts, USA in 1999-2000 was examined to determine correlation between various water quality constituents and indicator organisms and to explore the relationship between rainfall characteristics and indicator organism concentrations. Using the results of the statistical analysis to guide the selection of explanatory variables, MLR was performed to develop predictive equations for wet weather and dry weather conditions. The results show that the best-performing predictor variables are generally consistent for both indicator organisms considered. In addition, the regression equations show increasing indicator organism concentrations as a function of suspended sediment concentrations and length of time since last precipitation event, suggesting accumulation and wash off as a key mechanism of pathogen transport under wet weather conditions. This research also presents the

  5. An Integrated Model Based on a Hierarchical Indices System for Monitoring and Evaluating Urban Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xulin Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.

  6. Customs control of goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mentor Gashi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Customs control, is regulated by law in different countries. Different countries define through the law, the control of goods.. Main purpose of this paper is to analyze two types of customs controls, and their effect in reducing avoidance of duty or tax evasion which may be caused by the import of goods of certain companies. For this reason we researched which model is implemented in developing countries and what results were reached through questionnaires. In this sense the next research question, consists in defining the moment of customs control pre or post-clearance control of goods.

  7. Combined statistical and spatially distributed hydrological model for evaluating future drought indices in Virginia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunwoo Kang

    2017-08-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results of the ensemble mean of SSI indicated that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences projected in the New (>1.3 times and Rappahannock (>1.13 times river basins due to increases in evapotranspiration and surface and groundwater flow. However, MSDI and MPDSI exhibited a decrease in projected future drought, despite increases in precipitation, which suggests that it is essential to use hybrid-modeling approaches and to interpret application-specific drought indices that consider both precipitation and temperature changes.

  8. ABOUT THE SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT OF YOUTH: GENERAL TASKS AND PRIVATE MODELS OF MARKET INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia V. Kontsevaya

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work attempt of system approach to the analysis of labor market of youth is made, the place and a role of youth labor exchange are dened, opportunities and methods of state regulation are opened, contradictions in the analysis of the main market indicators are designated.Within system approach to the analysis of dynamics of market processes modeling of the main indicators of labor market in regional scale is shown.This approach can be useful when developing effective and economically reasonable mechanisms of employment of youth, both at the level of regional services of employment, and in the state scale

  9. Estimating daily climatologies for climate indices derived from climate model data and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark A; Appenzeller, Christof

    2015-01-01

    Climate indices help to describe the past, present, and the future climate. They are usually closer related to possible impacts and are therefore more illustrative to users than simple climate means. Indices are often based on daily data series and thresholds. It is shown that the percentile-based thresholds are sensitive to the method of computation, and so are the climatological daily mean and the daily standard deviation, which are used for bias corrections of daily climate model data. Sample size issues of either the observed reference period or the model data lead to uncertainties in these estimations. A large number of past ensemble seasonal forecasts, called hindcasts, is used to explore these sampling uncertainties and to compare two different approaches. Based on a perfect model approach it is shown that a fitting approach can improve substantially the estimates of daily climatologies of percentile-based thresholds over land areas, as well as the mean and the variability. These improvements are relevant for bias removal in long-range forecasts or predictions of climate indices based on percentile thresholds. But also for climate change studies, the method shows potential for use. Key Points More robust estimates of daily climate characteristics Statistical fitting approach Based on a perfect model approach PMID:26042192

  10. Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

    2018-01-01

    The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

  11. Merging remotely sensed data, models and indicators for a sustainable development of coastal aquaculture in Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigolin, Daniele; Venier, Chiara; Amine Taji, Mohamed; Lourguioui, Hichem; Mangin, Antoine; Pastres, Roberto

    2014-05-01

    Finfish cage farming is an economically relevant activity, which exerts pressures on coastal systems and thus require a science-based management, based on the Ecosystem Approach, in order to be carry out in a sustainable way. Within MEDINA project (EU 282977), ocean color data and models were used for estimating indicators of pressures of aquaculture installations along the north African coast. These indicators can provide important support for decision makers in the allocation of new zones for aquaculture, by taking into account the suitability of an area for this activity and minimizing negative environmental effects, thus enhancing the social acceptability of aquaculture. The increase in the number of farms represents a strategic objective for the Algerian food production sector, which is currently being supported by different national initiatives. The case-study presented in this work was carried out in the Gulf of Bejaia. Water quality for aquaculture was first screened based on ocean color CDOM data (http://www.globcolour.info/). The SWAN model was subsequently used to propagate offshore wave data and to derive wave height statistics. On this basis, sub-areas of the Gulf were ranked, according their optimality in respect to cage resistance and fish welfare requirements. At the three best sites an integrated aquaculture impact assessment model was therefore applied: this tool allows one to obtain a detailed representation of fish growth and population dynamics inside the rearing cages, and to simulate the deposition of uneaten food and faeces on the sediment and the subsequent mineralization of organic matter. This integrated model was used to produce a set of indicators of the fish cages environmental interaction under different scenarios of forcings (water temperature, feeding, currents). These model-derived indicators could usefully contribute to the implementation of the ecosystem approach for the management of aquaculture activities, also required by the

  12. Selecting a dynamic simulation modeling method for health care delivery research-part 2: report of the ISPOR Dynamic Simulation Modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Deborah A; Burgos-Liz, Lina; IJzerman, Maarten J; Crown, William; Padula, William V; Wong, Peter K; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Higashi, Mitchell K; Osgood, Nathaniel D

    2015-03-01

    In a previous report, the ISPOR Task Force on Dynamic Simulation Modeling Applications in Health Care Delivery Research Emerging Good Practices introduced the fundamentals of dynamic simulation modeling and identified the types of health care delivery problems for which dynamic simulation modeling can be used more effectively than other modeling methods. The hierarchical relationship between the health care delivery system, providers, patients, and other stakeholders exhibits a level of complexity that ought to be captured using dynamic simulation modeling methods. As a tool to help researchers decide whether dynamic simulation modeling is an appropriate method for modeling the effects of an intervention on a health care system, we presented the System, Interactions, Multilevel, Understanding, Loops, Agents, Time, Emergence (SIMULATE) checklist consisting of eight elements. This report builds on the previous work, systematically comparing each of the three most commonly used dynamic simulation modeling methods-system dynamics, discrete-event simulation, and agent-based modeling. We review criteria for selecting the most suitable method depending on 1) the purpose-type of problem and research questions being investigated, 2) the object-scope of the model, and 3) the method to model the object to achieve the purpose. Finally, we provide guidance for emerging good practices for dynamic simulation modeling in the health sector, covering all aspects, from the engagement of decision makers in the model design through model maintenance and upkeep. We conclude by providing some recommendations about the application of these methods to add value to informed decision making, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement, starting with the problem definition. Finally, we identify areas in which further methodological development will likely occur given the growing "volume, velocity and variety" and availability of "big data" to provide empirical evidence and techniques

  13. INDICATOR OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS OF AGRICULTURAL SECTORS UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to propose an indicator to deal with environmental problems for agricultural sectors caused by goods and services production. The aspects to calculate the real benefit of agricultural sectors and environmental cost for analyzing are natural resources materials, energy and transportation, fertilizer and pesticides, and sanitary and similar service. From the research it was found that the highest environmental cost of natural resources materials was 026: charcoal and fire-wood, while the lowest was 010 coconut. The highest environmental cost for energy and transportation was 024: agricultural services, while the highest environmental cost for fertilizer and pesticides was 011: palm oil. lastly, 017: other agricultural products was found as the highest environmental cost for sanitary and similar service. As a result, 010: coconut gained the highest real benefit, while 024: agricultural services presented as the lowest read benefit for the company. If Thailand using environmental problem indicator, especially with the agricultural sector, it can help to formulate efficient policies and strategies for the country in 3 development areas, which are social, economic, and environmental development.

  14. Mathematical model for estimating of technical and technological indicators of railway stations operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.M. Kozachenko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The article aims to create a mathematical model of the railway station functioning for the solving of problems of station technology development on the plan-schedule basis. Methodology. The methods of graph theory and object-oriented analysis are used as research methods. The model of the station activity plan-schedule includes a model of technical equipment of the station (plan-schedule net and a model of the station functioning , which are formalized on the basis of parametric graphs. Findings. The presented model is implemented as an application to the graphics package AutoCAD. The software is developed in Visual LISP and Visual Basic. Taking into account that the construction of the plan-schedule is mostly a traditional process of adding, deleting, and modifying of icons, the developed interface is intuitively understandable for a technologist and practically does not require additional training. Originality. A mathematical model was created on the basis of the theory of graphs and object-oriented analysis in order to evaluate the technical and process of railway stations indicators; it is focused on solving problems of technology development of their work. Practical value. The proposed mathematical model is implemented as an application to the graphics package of AutoCAD. The presence of a mathematical model allows carrying out an automatic analysis of the plan-schedule and, thereby, reducing the period of its creation more than twice.

  15. Dynamic energy conservation model REDUCE. Extension with experience curves, energy efficiency indicators and user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uyterlinde, M.A.; Rijkers, F.A.M.

    1999-12-01

    The main objective of the energy conservation model REDUCE (Reduction of Energy Demand by Utilization of Conservation of Energy) is the evaluation of the effectiveness of economical, financial, institutional, and regulatory measures for improving the rational use of energy in end-use sectors. This report presents the results of additional model development activities, partly based on the first experiences in a previous project. Energy efficiency indicators have been added as an extra tool for output analysis in REDUCE. The methodology is described and some examples are given. The model has been extended with a method for modelling the effects of technical development on production costs, by means of an experience curve. Finally, the report provides a 'users guide', by describing in more detail the input data specification as well as all menus and buttons. 19 refs

  16. Measurement of infrared refractive indices of organic and organophosphorous compounds for optical modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonkyn, Russell G.; Danby, Tyler O.; Birnbaum, Jerome C.; Taubman, Matthew S.; Bernacki, Bruce E.; Johnson, Timothy J.; Myers, Tanya L.

    2017-05-03

    The complex optical refractive index contains the optical constants, n($\\tilde{u}$)and k($\\tilde{u}$), which correspond to the dispersion and absorption of light within a medium, respectively. By obtaining the optical constants one can in principle model most optical phenomena in media and at interfaces including reflection, refraction and dispersion. We have developed improved protocols based on the use of multiple path lengths to determine the optical constants for dozens of liquids, including organic and organophosphorous compounds. Detailed description of the protocols to determine the infrared indices will be presented, along with preliminary results using the constants with their applications to optical modeling.

  17. A low free-parameter stochastic model of daily Forbush decrease indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patra, Sankar Narayan; Bhattacharya, Gautam; Panja, Subhash Chandra; Ghosh, Koushik

    2014-01-01

    Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity pattern occurring after a coronal mass ejection. In the present paper we have analyzed the daily Forbush decrease indices from January, 1967 to December, 2003 generated in IZMIRAN, Russia. First the entire indices have been smoothened and next we have made an attempt to fit a suitable stochastic model for the present time series by means of a necessary number of process parameters. The study reveals that the present time series is governed by a stationary autoregressive process of order 2 with a trace of white noise. Under the consideration of the present model we have shown that chaos is not expected in the present time series which opens up the possibility of validation of its forecasting (both short-term and long-term) as well as its multi-periodic behavior.

  18. Analytic network process model for sustainable lean and green manufacturing performance indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminuddin, Adam Shariff Adli; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd; Mohamed, Nik Mohd Zuki Nik

    2014-09-01

    Sustainable manufacturing is regarded as the most complex manufacturing paradigm to date as it holds the widest scope of requirements. In addition, its three major pillars of economic, environment and society though distinct, have some overlapping among each of its elements. Even though the concept of sustainability is not new, the development of the performance indicator still needs a lot of improvement due to its multifaceted nature, which requires integrated approach to solve the problem. This paper proposed the best combination of criteria en route a robust sustainable manufacturing performance indicator formation via Analytic Network Process (ANP). The integrated lean, green and sustainable ANP model can be used to comprehend the complex decision system of the sustainability assessment. The finding shows that green manufacturing is more sustainable than lean manufacturing. It also illustrates that procurement practice is the most important criteria in the sustainable manufacturing performance indicator.

  19. Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Wang, Wenjing

    We construct daily house price indices for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case-Shiller house...... price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price...... index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower frequency data....

  20. Southern Phosphorus Indices, Water Quality Data, and Modeling (APEX, APLE, and TBET) Results: A Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmond, Deanna; Bolster, Carl; Sharpley, Andrew; Cabrera, Miguel; Feagley, Sam; Forsberg, Adam; Mitchell, Charles; Mylavarapu, Rao; Oldham, J Larry; Radcliffe, David E; Ramirez-Avila, John J; Storm, Dan E; Walker, Forbes; Zhang, Hailin

    2017-11-01

    Phosphorus (P) Indices in the southern United States frequently produce different recommendations for similar conditions. We compared risk ratings from 12 southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas) using data collected from benchmark sites in the South (Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas). Phosphorus Index ratings were developed using both measured erosion losses from each benchmark site and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation 2 predictions; mostly, there was no difference in P Index outcome. The derived loss ratings were then compared with measured P loads at the benchmark sites by using equivalent USDA-NRCS P Index ratings and three water quality models (Annual P Loss Estimator [APLE], Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender [APEX], and Texas Best Management Practice Evaluation Tool [TBET]). Phosphorus indices were finally compared against each other using USDA-NRCS loss ratings model estimate correspondence with USDA-NRCS loss ratings. Correspondence was 61% for APEX, 48% for APLE, and 52% for TBET, with overall P index correspondence at 55%. Additive P Indices (Alabama and Texas) had the lowest USDA-NRCS loss rating correspondence (31%), while the multiplicative (Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee) and component (Georgia, Kentucky, and North Carolina) indices had similar USDA-NRCS loss rating correspondence-60 and 64%, respectively. Analysis using Kendall's modified Tau suggested that correlations between measured and calculated P-loss ratings were similar or better for most P Indices than the models. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  1. Supporting good practice in the provision of services to people with comorbid mental health and alcohol and other drug problems in Australia: describing key elements of good service models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Canaway Rachel

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The co-occurrence of mental illness and substance use problems (referred to as "comorbidity" in this paper is common, and is often reported by service providers as the expectation rather than the exception. Despite this, many different treatment service models are being used in the alcohol and other drugs (AOD and mental health (MH sectors to treat this complex client group. While there is abundant literature in the area of comorbidity treatment, no agreed overarching framework to describe the range of service delivery models is apparent internationally or at the national level. The aims of the current research were to identify and describe elements of good practice in current service models of treatment of comorbidity in Australia. The focus of the research was on models of service delivery. The research did not aim to measure the client outcomes achieved by individual treatment services, but sought to identify elements of good practice in services. Methods Australian treatment services were identified to take part in the study through a process of expert consultation. The intent was to look for similarities in the delivery models being implemented across a diverse set of services that were perceived to be providing good quality treatment for people with comorbidity problems. Results A survey was designed based on a concept map of service delivery devised from a literature review. Seventeen Australian treatment services participated in the survey, which explored the context in which services operate, inputs such as organisational philosophy and service structure, policies and procedures that guide the way in which treatment is delivered by the service, practices that reflect the way treatment is provided to clients, and client impacts. Conclusions The treatment of people with comorbidity of mental health and substance use disorders presents complex problems that require strong but flexible service models. While the treatment

  2. Bioclimatic indices based on the menex model example on Banja Luka

    OpenAIRE

    Pecelj Milica

    2013-01-01

    It has long been known that weather and climate have influence on human health and well-being. The human organism is in constant interaction with the environmental conditions. To access the atmospheric impact on humans, different methods in human bioclimatology are created. Most of them are based on human heat balance. In this paper it has been tried to present several bioclimatic indices based on the human heat balance according to the bioclimatic model menex (man-environment exchange)...

  3. Forming Factors And Builder Indicators Of Brand Personality Models In Traditional Retail Traders

    OpenAIRE

    Yunelly Asra; Teguh Widodo

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to find the factors forming and indicator builder model of brand personality of traditional retail traders through measuring the influence of retail mix and culture. The formation of brand personality uses Aaker brand personality dimension to 250 consumers in Bengkalis Regency. The type of research is causal research design. The research variables are brand personality Retail Mix and Brand Personality. Data collection is done by probability sampling with purposive method. Data...

  4. Prediction of genetic gains by selection indices using mixed models in elephant grass for energy purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, V B; Daher, R F; Araújo, M S B; Souza, Y P; Cassaro, S; Menezes, B R S; Gravina, L M; Novo, A A C; Tardin, F D; Júnior, A T Amaral

    2017-09-27

    Genetically improved cultivars of elephant grass need to be adapted to different ecosystems with a faster growth speed and lower seasonality of biomass production over the year. This study aimed to use selection indices using mixed models (REML/BLUP) for selecting families and progenies within full-sib families of elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum) for biomass production. One hundred and twenty full-sib progenies were assessed from 2014 to 2015 in a randomized block design with three replications. During this period, the traits dry matter production, the number of tillers, plant height, stem diameter, and neutral detergent fiber were assessed. Families 3 and 1 were the best classified, being the most indicated for selection effect. Progenies 40, 45, 46, and 49 got the first positions in the three indices assessed in the first cut. The gain for individual 40 was 161.76% using Mulamba and Mock index. The use of selection indices using mixed models is advantageous in elephant grass since they provide high gains with the selection, which are distributed among all the assessed traits in the most appropriate situation to breeding programs.

  5. Value Added Productivity Indicators: A Statistical Comparison of the Pre-Test/Post-Test Model and Gain Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weerasinghe, Dash; Orsak, Timothy; Mendro, Robert

    In an age of student accountability, public school systems must find procedures for identifying effective schools, classrooms, and teachers that help students continue to learn academically. As a result, researchers have been modeling schools and classrooms to calculate productivity indicators that will withstand not only statistical review but…

  6. Relative Release-to-Birth Indicators for Investigating TRISO Fuel Fission Gas Release Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harp, Jason M.; Hawari, Ayman I.

    2008-01-01

    TRISO microsphere fuel is the fundamental fuel unit for Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTR). A single TRISO particle consists of an inner kernel of uranium dioxide or uranium oxycarbide surrounded by layers of pyrolytic carbon and silicon carbide. If the silicon carbide layer fails, fission products, especially the noble fission gases Kr and Xe, will begin to escape the failed particle. The release of fission gas is usually quantified by measuring the ratio of the released activity (R) to the original birth activity (B), which is designated as the R/B ratio. In this work, relative Release-to-Birth indicators (I) are proposed as a technique for interpreting the results of TRISO irradiation experiments. By implementing a relative metric, it is possible to reduce the sensitivity of the indicators to instrumental uncertainties and variations in experimental conditions. As an example, relative R/B indicators are applied to the interpretation of representative data from the Advanced Gas Reactor-1 TRISO fuel experiment that is currently taking place at the Advanced Test Reactor of Idaho National Laboratory. It is shown that the comparison of measured to predicted relative R/B indicators (I) gives insight into the physics of release and helps validate release models. Different trends displayed by the indicators are related to the mechanisms of fission gas release such as diffusion and recoil. The current analysis shows evidence for separate diffusion coefficients for Kr and Xe and supports the need to account for recoil release. (authors)

  7. Identification of novel indicators of cyclosporine A nephrotoxicity in a CD-1 mouse model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Connell, Sein; Slattery, Craig; Ryan, Michael P.; McMorrow, Tara

    2011-01-01

    The calcineurin inhibitor cyclosporine A (CsA) is a widely used immunosuppressive agent. However, nephrotoxicity is a serious side effect observed in patients which limits clinical use of CsA. CsA nephrotoxicity is associated with tubulointerstitial injury progressing to nephropathy. This is typically diagnosed by invasive renal biopsy and is often only detected when the disease process is well advanced. Therefore identification of novel, early indicators of CsA nephrotoxicity could be clinically advantageous. This study aimed to establish a murine model of CsA nephrotoxicity and to identify urinary proteins that may indicate the onset of CsA-induced nephropathy using 2-D gel electrophoresis. CsA nephrotoxicity was induced in CD-1 mice by daily CsA administration for 4 weeks. By week 4, elevated serum creatinine and proteinuria were observed after CsA treatment indicating significant renal dysfunction. Decreased cadherin-1, increased α-smooth muscle actin and fibroblast specific protein 1 in kidney tissue indicated disruption of normal tubular architecture. Alterations in podocin and uromodulin were also observed which may indicate damage to other segments of the nephron. Proteomic analysis of urine identified a number of differentially regulated proteins that may be involved in early CsA nephropathy including cadherin 1, superoxide dismutase and vinculin. These findings suggest novel mechanisms of CsA nephrotoxicity and identify novel potential markers of the disease.

  8. Digestive enzyme ratios are good indicators of hatchling yolk reserve and digestive gland maturation in early life stages of cuttlefish Sepia officinalis L.: application of these new tools in ecology and aquaculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, Georges; Martinez, A S; Le Pabic, C; Le Bihan, E; Robin, J P; Koueta, N

    2018-01-01

    In Sepia officinalis (Linnaeus, 1758), the digestive gland matures during the first month post-hatching, while a shift from intracellular acid to extracellular alkaline digestion occurs. The purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of using enzymatic ratios for the description of digestive system maturation in early life stages of S. officinalis. Second, it is intended to apply these new tools as eco-physiological indicators for understanding the impact of cuttlefish eggs' life history from different spawning sites of the English Channel on digestive performance of juveniles. An experimental rearing was performed over 35 days after hatching (DAH) on juveniles from wild collected eggs in 2010 and 2011. Four digestive enzyme activities and their ratios [i.e., trypsin, cathepsin, acid (ACP), and alkaline (ALP) phosphatase, ALP/ACP, and trypsin/cathepsin] were studied along with histological features (e.g., internal yolk surface and digestive gland development). The two enzyme ratios were good indicators of digestive system maturation allowing the study of the digestive gland's development. They were highly correlated to juveniles' weight increase and histological features of the gland in early DAH. These ratios described more accurately the shift occurring between the intracellular acid and the extracellular alkaline modes of digestion in S. officinalis and were more specific than separated enzyme activities. Their application as eco-physiological tools revealed that enzyme ratios reflected yolk content and digestive gland development in new hatching juveniles. Finally, ALP/ACP ratio was shown to be a powerful tool to describe growth performance of S. officinalis which is useful for aquaculture optimization.

  9. Useful model organisms, indicators, or both? Ground beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) reflecting environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivula, Matti J

    2011-01-01

    Classic studies have successfully linked single-species abundances, life-history traits, assemblage structures and biomass of carabid beetles to past and present, human-caused environmental impacts and variation in 'natural' conditions. This evidence has led many to suggest carabids to function as 'indicators' - a term that bears multiple meanings. Here, a conservation-oriented definition for an indicator is used, carabid indicator potential from seven views is evaluated, and ways to proceed in indicator research are discussed. (1) Carabid species richness poorly indicates the richness and abundance of other taxa, which underlines the importance of using multiple taxa in environmental assessments. The ability of assemblage indices and specialist or functional-group abundances to reflect rare species and habitats should be examined in detail. (2) Experimental evidence suggests that carabids may potentially serve as keystone indicators. (3) Carabids are sensitive to human-altered abiotic conditions, such as pesticide use in agro-ecosystems and heavy metal contamination of soils. Carabids might thus reflect ecological sustainability and 'ecosystem health'. (4) Carabid assemblages host abundant species characteristic of particular habitat types or successional stages, which makes them promising dominance indicators. (5) Carabids reflect variation in 'natural' conditions, but vegetation and structural features are more commonly adopted as condition indicators. Carabids nevertheless provide yet another, equally accurate, view on the structure of the environment. (6) Carabids may function as early-warning signalers, as suggested by recent studies linking climate and carabid distributions. (7) Carabids reflect natural and human-caused disturbances and management, but the usefulness of these responses for conservation purposes requires further research. In summary, European carabids appear useful model organisms and possibly indicators because they are diverse

  10. Comparison between model-predicted tumor oxygenation dynamics and vascular-/flow-related Doppler indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belfatto, Antonella; Vidal Urbinati, Ailyn M; Ciardo, Delia; Franchi, Dorella; Cattani, Federica; Lazzari, Roberta; Jereczek-Fossa, Barbara A; Orecchia, Roberto; Baroni, Guido; Cerveri, Pietro

    2017-05-01

    Mathematical modeling is a powerful and flexible method to investigate complex phenomena. It discloses the possibility of reproducing expensive as well as invasive experiments in a safe environment with limited costs. This makes it suitable to mimic tumor evolution and response to radiotherapy although the reliability of the results remains an issue. Complexity reduction is therefore a critical aspect in order to be able to compare model outcomes to clinical data. Among the factors affecting treatment efficacy, tumor oxygenation is known to play a key role in radiotherapy response. In this work, we aim at relating the oxygenation dynamics, predicted by a macroscale model trained on tumor volumetric data of uterine cervical cancer patients, to vascularization and blood flux indices assessed on Ultrasound Doppler images. We propose a macroscale model of tumor evolution based on three dynamics, namely active portion, necrotic portion, and oxygenation. The model parameters were assessed on the volume size of seven cervical cancer patients administered with 28 fractions of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) (1.8 Gy/fraction). For each patient, five Doppler ultrasound tests were acquired before, during, and after the treatment. The lesion was manually contoured by an expert physician using 4D View ® (General Electric Company - Fairfield, Connecticut, United States), which automatically provided the overall tumor volume size along with three vascularization and/or blood flow indices. Volume data only were fed to the model for training purpose, while the predicted oxygenation was compared a posteriori to the measured Doppler indices. The model was able to fit the tumor volume evolution within 8% error (range: 3-8%). A strong correlation between the intrapatient longitudinal indices from Doppler measurements and oxygen predicted by the model (about 90% or above) was found in three cases. Two patients showed an average correlation value (50-70%) and the remaining

  11. Measurement of wire deflection on loading may indicate union in Ilizarov constructs, an in vitro model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineham, Beth; Stewart, Todd; Harwood, Paul

    2018-02-02

    No entirely reliable method exists for assessing union during Ilizarov treatment. Premature removal results in potential treatment failure; hence, alternative methods warrant investigation. Wire deflection might provide an indication of fracture site deformation on weight bearing, indicating progress towards union. This study aimed to test a method for assessing wire deflection within an Ilizarov frame. (1) To assess the repeatability of our novel measurement method in measuring wire deflection within an Ilizarov frame in vitro. (2) To compare the amount of wire deflection in an unstable model with that in an intact bone model. (3) To assess accuracy of this method by comparing wire deflection measured with overall machine extension. Tests were performed on clinical grade-tensioned fine wire 4-ring Ilizarov constructs stabilising a simulated fracture, with and without an unstable defect. Models were sequentially loaded to 700 N using an Instron testing machine. A digital depth gauge attached to the superior ring measured relative wire displacement at the ring closest to the fracture. Tests were repeated 3 times. (1) Both unstable and stable bone models produced highly repeatable load deformation curves (R 2  = 0.98 and 0.99). (2) In the unstable model, wires tensioned at 882 and 1274 N produced mean maximum deflections of 2.41 and 2.69 mm compared with 0.05 and 0.04 mm in the intact bone model (significant p measurable difference in wire deflection between stable and unstable situations exists using this method which appears accurate and repeatable, with clear correlation between displacement and load and displacement and machine extension. This approach might be clinically applicable, and further clinical testing is required.

  12. Useful model organisms, indicators, or both? Ground beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae reflecting environmental conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matti Koivula

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Classic studies have successfully linked single-species abundances, life-history traits, assemblage structures and biomass of carabid beetles to past and present, human-caused environmental impacts and variation in ‘natural’ conditions. This evidence has led many to suggest carabids to function as ‘indicators’ − a term that bears multiple meanings. Here, a conservation-oriented definition for an indicator is used, carabid indicator potential from seven views is evaluated, and ways to proceed in indicator research are discussed. (1 Carabid species richness poorly indicates the richness and abundance of other taxa, which underlines the importance of using multiple taxa in environmental assessments. The ability of assemblage indices and specialist or functional-group abundances to reflect rare species and habitats should be examined in detail. (2 Experimental evidence suggests that carabids may potentially serve as keystone indicators. (3 Carabids are sensitive to human-altered abiotic conditions, such as pesticide use in agro-ecosystems and heavy metal contamination of soils. Carabids might thus reflect ecological sustainability and ‘ecosystem health’. (4 Carabid assemblages host abundant species characteristic of particular habitat types or successional stages, which makes them promising dominance indicators. (5 Carabids reflect variation in ‘natural’ conditions, but vegetation and structural features are more commonly adopted as condition indicators. Carabids nevertheless provide yet another, equally accurate, view on the structure of the environment. (6 Carabids may function as early-warning signalers, as suggested by recent studies linking climate and carabid distributions. (7 Carabids reflect natural and human-caused disturbances and management, but the usefulness of these responses for conservation purposes requires further research. In summary, European carabids appear useful model organisms and possibly indicators because

  13. [Simulation of vegetation indices optimizing under retrieval of vegetation biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling; Liu, Xiang-Nan; Zhou, Bo-Tian; Liu, Chuan-Hao; Li, Lu-Feng

    2012-12-01

    This study analyzed the sensitivities of three vegetation biochemical parameters [chlorophyll content (Cab), leaf water content (Cw), and leaf area index (LAI)] to the changes of canopy reflectance, with the effects of each parameter on the wavelength regions of canopy reflectance considered, and selected three vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function. Then, the Cab, Cw, and LAI were estimated, based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm and PROSPECT + SAIL model. The results showed that retrieval efficiency with vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function was better than that with all spectral reflectance. The correlation coefficients (R2) between the measured and estimated values of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 90.8%, 95.7%, and 99.7%, and the root mean square errors of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 4.73 microg x cm(-2), 0.001 g x cm(-2), and 0.08, respectively. It was suggested that to adopt vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function could effectively improve the efficiency and precision of the retrieval of biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model.

  14. Regime Switching Vine Copula Models for Global Equity and Volatility Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Fink

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For nearly every major stock market there exist equity and implied volatility indices. These play important roles within finance: be it as a benchmark, a measure of general uncertainty or a way of investing or hedging. It is well known in the academic literature that correlations and higher moments between different indices tend to vary in time. However, to the best of our knowledge, no one has yet considered a global setup including both equity and implied volatility indices of various continents, and allowing for a changing dependence structure. We aim to close this gap by applying Markov-switching R-vine models to investigate the existence of different, global dependence regimes. In particular, we identify times of “normal” and “abnormal” states within a data set consisting of North-American, European and Asian indices. Our results confirm the existence of joint points in a time at which global regime switching between two different R-vine structures takes place.

  15. AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

  16. Forming Factors And Builder Indicators Of Brand Personality Models In Traditional Retail Traders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunelly Asra

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to find the factors forming and indicator builder model of brand personality of traditional retail traders through measuring the influence of retail mix and culture. The formation of brand personality uses Aaker brand personality dimension to 250 consumers in Bengkalis Regency. The type of research is causal research design. The research variables are brand personality Retail Mix and Brand Personality. Data collection is done by probability sampling with purposive method. Data analysis was done by perception analysis frequency distribution and multiple regression using SPSS version 21.0. The results of this study are The factor of retail mix partially has a positive and significant impact on the brand personality of traditional retail traders in Bengkalis Regency. Factor cultural partially does not affect the brand personality of traditional retail traders in Bengkalis Regency. Simultaneously retail mix and cultural have positive and significant influence on traditional brand traders brand personality in Bengkalis Regency. Initial forming factor of brand personality model of traditional retail traders in Bengkalis Regency is Retail Mix Factor. Indicator of the model of traditional traders brand personality builder in Bengkalis are sincerity excitement competence sophistication competence ruggedness.

  17. Modeling change in learning strategies throughout higher education: a multi-indicator latent growth perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coertjens, Liesje; Donche, Vincent; De Maeyer, Sven; Vanthournout, Gert; Van Petegem, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The change in learning strategies during higher education is an important topic of research in the Student Approaches to Learning field. Although the studies on this topic are increasingly longitudinal, analyses have continued to rely primarily on traditional statistical methods. The present research is innovative in the way it uses a multi-indicator latent growth analysis in order to more accurately estimate the general and differential development in learning strategy scales. Moreover, the predictive strength of the latent growth models are estimated. The sample consists of one cohort of Flemish University College students, 245 of whom participated in the three measurement waves by filling out the processing and regulation strategies scales of the Inventory of Learning Styles--Short Versions. Independent-samples t-tests revealed that the longitudinal group is a non-random subset of students starting University College. For each scale, a multi-indicator latent growth model is estimated using Mplus 6.1. Results suggest that, on average, during higher education, students persisting in their studies in a non-delayed manner seem to shift towards high-quality learning and away from undirected and surface-oriented learning. Moreover, students from the longitudinal group are found to vary in their initial levels, while, unexpectedly, not in their change over time. Although the growth models fit the data well, significant residual variances in the latent factors remain.

  18. Modeling change in learning strategies throughout higher education: a multi-indicator latent growth perspective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liesje Coertjens

    Full Text Available The change in learning strategies during higher education is an important topic of research in the Student Approaches to Learning field. Although the studies on this topic are increasingly longitudinal, analyses have continued to rely primarily on traditional statistical methods. The present research is innovative in the way it uses a multi-indicator latent growth analysis in order to more accurately estimate the general and differential development in learning strategy scales. Moreover, the predictive strength of the latent growth models are estimated. The sample consists of one cohort of Flemish University College students, 245 of whom participated in the three measurement waves by filling out the processing and regulation strategies scales of the Inventory of Learning Styles--Short Versions. Independent-samples t-tests revealed that the longitudinal group is a non-random subset of students starting University College. For each scale, a multi-indicator latent growth model is estimated using Mplus 6.1. Results suggest that, on average, during higher education, students persisting in their studies in a non-delayed manner seem to shift towards high-quality learning and away from undirected and surface-oriented learning. Moreover, students from the longitudinal group are found to vary in their initial levels, while, unexpectedly, not in their change over time. Although the growth models fit the data well, significant residual variances in the latent factors remain.

  19. Occupational stress and psychopathology in health professionals: an explorative study with the multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliceto, Paolo; Pompili, Maurizio; Spencer-Thomas, Sally; Ferracuti, Stefano; Erbuto, Denise; Lester, David; Candilera, Gabriella; Girardi, Paolo

    2013-03-01

    Occupational stress is a multivariate process involving sources of pressure, psycho-physiological distress, locus of control, work dissatisfaction, depression, anxiety, mental health disorders, hopelessness, and suicide ideation. Healthcare professionals are known for higher rates of occupational-related distress (burnout and compassion fatigue) and higher rates of suicide. The purpose of this study was to explain the relationships between occupational stress and some psychopathological dimensions in a sample of health professionals. We investigated 156 nurses and physicians, 62 males and 94 females, who were administered self-report questionnaires to assess occupational stress [occupational stress inventory (OSI)], temperament (temperament evaluation of Memphis, Pisa, Paris, and San Diego autoquestionnaire), and hopelessness (Beck hopelessness scale). The best Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes model with five OSI predictors yielded the following results: χ2(9) = 14.47 (p = 0.11); χ2/df = 1.60; comparative fit index = 0.99; root mean square error of approximation = 0.05. This model provided a good fit to the empirical data, showing a strong direct influence of casual variables such as work dissatisfaction, absence of type A behavior, and especially external locus of control, psychological and physiological distress on latent variable psychopathology. Occupational stress is in a complex relationship with temperament and hopelessness and also common among healthcare professionals.

  20. Modeling Indicator Systems for Evaluating Environmental Sustainable Development Based on Factor Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Hao; CHEN Xiaoling; HE Ying; HE Xiaorong; CAI Xiaobin; XU Keyan

    2006-01-01

    Indicator systems of environmental sustainable development in the Poyang Lake Basin are established from 51 elementary indexes by factor analysis, which is composed of four steps such as the factor model, the parameter estimation, the factor rotation and the factor score. Under the condition that the cumulative proportion is greater than 85%, 5 explicit factors of environmental sustainable development as well as its factor score by region are carried out. The result indicates some impact factors to the basin environmental in descending sort order are volume of water, volume of waste gas discharge, volume of solid wastes, the degree to comprehensive utilization of waste gas, waste water and solid wastes, the emission volume of waste gas, waste water and solid wastes. It is helpful and important to provide decision support for constituting sustainable development strategies and evaluate the sustainable development status of each city.

  1. Measurement of Child Behavior via Classroom Observations in the Good Behavior Game Professional Development Models Randomized Control Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurki, Anja; Wang, Wei; Li, Yibing; Poduska, Jeanne

    2013-01-01

    The Good Behavior Game (GBG) is a classroom-based behavior management strategy aimed at reducing aggressive/disruptive behavior and socializing children into the role of student. GBG, delivered in first and second grades, has been shown to reduce rates of substance abuse and other deleterious outcomes into young adulthood (Brown, C.H. et al 2007,…

  2. Investigation of reliability indicators of information analysis systems based on Markov’s absorbing chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.

    2017-09-01

    In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.

  3. On the usage of geomagnetic indices for data selection in internal field modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kauristie, K.; Morschhauser, A.; Olsen, Nils

    2017-01-01

    are primarily used in data selection criteria for weak magnetic activity.The publicly available extensive data bases of index values are used to derive joint conditional Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for different pairs of indices in order to investigate their mutual consistency in describing quiet......) as derived from solar wind observations. We use in our PDF analysis the PC-index as a proxy for MEF and estimate the magnetic activity level at auroral latitudes with the AL-index. With these boundary conditions we conclude that the quiet time conditions that are typically used in main field modelling (PC...

  4. Finite-dimensional effects and critical indices of one-dimensional quantum models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogolyubov, N.M.; Izergin, A.G.; Reshetikhin, N.Yu.

    1986-01-01

    Critical indices, depending on continuous parameters in Bose-gas quantum models and Heisenberg 1/2 spin antiferromagnetic in two-dimensional space-time at zero temperature, have been calculated by means of finite-dimensional effects. In this case the long-wave asymptotics of the correlation functions is of a power character. Derivation of man asymptotics terms is reduced to the determination of a central charge in the appropriate Virassoro algebra representation and the anomalous dimension-operator spectrum in this representation. The finite-dimensional effects allow to find these values

  5. Abusing Good Intentions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamas Bereczkei

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to understand how Machiavellians switch from one kind of response to another in different circumstances to maximize their profit. We set up a specific experimental paradigm that involved both a cooperative and competitive version of a public goods game. We found that Machiavellianism accounts for the total amount of money paid by the players (N = 144 across five rounds in the cooperative but not in the competitive game. Compared with the others, individuals with higher scores on Mach scale contributed less to the public goods in the cooperative condition, but no difference was found in the competitive condition. Finally, this relationship was influenced by the sequence of the games. These results indicate that Machiavellians skillfully evaluate social environments and strive to exploit those with abundant contributions to public goods.

  6. Financial Giffen Goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Rolf; Rasmussen, Kourosh Marjani

    2008-01-01

    In the basic Markowitz and Merton models, a stock’s weight in efficient portfolios goes up if its expected rate of return goes up. Put differently, there are no financial Giffen goods. By an example from mortgage choice we illustrate that for more complicated portfolio problems Giffen effects do...

  7. 'Ecological value added' in an integrated ecosystem-economy model. An indicator for sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kratena, Kurt

    2004-01-01

    This paper sets up an input-output system of the relevant ecosystem flows that determine the carbon cycle in the global ecosystem. Introducing energy as the value added component in the ecosystem allows to calculate ecosystem prices expressed in 'energy values'. Linking the ecosystem with the economy in an integrated input-output model then allows to calculate prices of economic activities and of ecosystem activities. In analogy to the 'Ecological Footprint', where productive land is needed to absorb anthropogenic emissions, in this integrated input-output model additional carbon sinks are introduced for emission absorption. These carbon sinks need solar energy input, i.e. 'ecological value added'. Emission absorption as well as GDP therefore become activities valued in the numeraire of the integrated system, i.e.'energy values'. From that sustainability indicators can be derived

  8. Variance-based sensitivity indices for stochastic models with correlated inputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kala, Zdeněk [Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Structural Mechanics Veveří St. 95, ZIP 602 00, Brno (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    The goal of this article is the formulation of the principles of one of the possible strategies in implementing correlation between input random variables so as to be usable for algorithm development and the evaluation of Sobol’s sensitivity analysis. With regard to the types of stochastic computational models, which are commonly found in structural mechanics, an algorithm was designed for effective use in conjunction with Monte Carlo methods. Sensitivity indices are evaluated for all possible permutations of the decorrelation procedures for input parameters. The evaluation of Sobol’s sensitivity coefficients is illustrated on an example in which a computational model was used for the analysis of the resistance of a steel bar in tension with statistically dependent input geometric characteristics.

  9. Variance-based sensitivity indices for stochastic models with correlated inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kala, Zdeněk

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this article is the formulation of the principles of one of the possible strategies in implementing correlation between input random variables so as to be usable for algorithm development and the evaluation of Sobol’s sensitivity analysis. With regard to the types of stochastic computational models, which are commonly found in structural mechanics, an algorithm was designed for effective use in conjunction with Monte Carlo methods. Sensitivity indices are evaluated for all possible permutations of the decorrelation procedures for input parameters. The evaluation of Sobol’s sensitivity coefficients is illustrated on an example in which a computational model was used for the analysis of the resistance of a steel bar in tension with statistically dependent input geometric characteristics

  10. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  11. Two Aspects of the Simplex Model: Goodness of Fit to Linear Growth Curve Structures and the Analysis of Mean Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandys, Frantisek; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

    1994-01-01

    Studied the conditions under which the quasi-Markov simplex model fits a linear growth curve covariance structure and determined when the model is rejected. Presents a quasi-Markov simplex model with structured means and gives an example. (SLD)

  12. Model-Based Analysis of the Potential of Macroinvertebrates as Indicators for Microbial Pathogens in Rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubén Jerves-Cobo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The quality of water prior to its use for drinking, farming or recreational purposes must comply with several physicochemical and microbiological standards to safeguard society and the environment. In order to satisfy these standards, expensive analyses and highly trained personnel in laboratories are required. Whereas macroinvertebrates have been used as ecological indicators to review the health of aquatic ecosystems. In this research, the relationship between microbial pathogens and macrobenthic invertebrate taxa was examined in the Machangara River located in the southern Andes of Ecuador, in which 33 sites, according to their land use, were chosen to collect physicochemical, microbiological and biological parameters. Decision tree models (DTMs were used to generate rules that link the presence and abundance of some benthic families to microbial pathogen standards. The aforementioned DTMs provide an indirect, approximate, and quick way of checking the fulfillment of Ecuadorian regulations for water use related to microbial pathogens. The models built and optimized with the WEKA package, were evaluated based on both statistical and ecological criteria to make them as clear and simple as possible. As a result, two different and reliable models were obtained, which could be used as proxy indicators in a preliminary assessment of pollution of microbial pathogens in rivers. The DTMs can be easily applied by staff with minimal training in the identification of the sensitive taxa selected by the models. The presence of selected macroinvertebrate taxa in conjunction with the decision trees can be used as a screening tool to evaluate sites that require additional follow up analyses to confirm whether microbial water quality standards are met.

  13. Modeling spatially- and temporally-explicit water stress indices for use in life cycle assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, L.; Venkatesh, A.; Karuppiah, R.; Usadi, A.; Pfister, S.; Hellweg, S.

    2013-12-01

    Water scarcity is a regional issue in many areas across the world, and can affect human health and ecosystems locally. Water stress indices (WSIs) have been developed as quantitative indicators of such scarcities - examples include the Falkenmark indicator, Social Water Stress Index, and the Water Supply Stress Index1. Application of these indices helps us understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users, including those in the agricultural, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Pfister et al.2 developed a method to calculate WSIs that were used to estimate characterization factors (CFs) in order to quantify environmental impacts of freshwater consumption within a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Global WSIs were based on data from the WaterGAP model3, and presented as annual averages for watersheds. Since water supply and demand varies regionally and temporally, the resolution used in Pfister et al. does not effectively differentiate between seasonal and permanent water scarcity. This study aims to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the water scarcity calculations used to estimate WSIs and CFs. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)4 hydrological model to properly simulate water supply in different world regions with high spatial and temporal resolution, and coupled it with water use data from WaterGAP3 and Pfister et al.5. Input data to SWAT included weather, land use, soil characteristics and a digital elevation model (DEM), all from publicly available global data sets. Potential evapotranspiration, which affects water supply, was determined using an improved Priestley-Taylor approach. In contrast to most other hydrological studies, large reservoirs, water consumption and major water transfers were simulated. The model was calibrated against observed monthly discharge, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalents wherever appropriate. Based on these simulations, monthly WSIs were calculated for a few

  14. Advanced Model of Squirrel Cage Induction Machine for Broken Rotor Bars Fault Using Multi Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilias Ouachtouk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Squirrel cage induction machine are the most commonly used electrical drives, but like any other machine, they are vulnerable to faults. Among the widespread failures of the induction machine there are rotor faults. This paper focuses on the detection of broken rotor bars fault using multi-indicator. However, diagnostics of asynchronous machine rotor faults can be accomplished by analysing the anomalies of machine local variable such as torque, magnetic flux, stator current and neutral voltage signature analysis. The aim of this research is to summarize the existing models and to develop new models of squirrel cage induction motors with consideration of the neutral voltage and to study the effect of broken rotor bars on the different electrical quantities such as the park currents, torque, stator currents and neutral voltage. The performance of the model was assessed by comparing the simulation and experimental results. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the model, and allow detection and diagnosis of these defects.

  15. Using a phosphorus loss model to evaluate and improve phosphorus indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolster, Carl H; Vadas, Peter A; Sharpley, Andrew N; Lory, John A

    2012-01-01

    In most states, the phosphorus (P) index (PI) is the adopted strategy for assessing a field's vulnerability to P loss; however, many state PIs have not been rigorously evaluated against measured P loss data to determine how well the PI assigns P loss risk-a major reason being the lack of field data available for such an analysis. Given the lack of P loss data available for PI evaluation, our goal was to demonstrate how a P loss model can be used to evaluate and revise a PI using the Pennsylvania (PA) PI as an example. Our first objective was to compare two different formulations-multiplicative and component-for calculating a PI. Our second objective was to evaluate whether output from a P loss model can be used to improve PI weighting by calculating weights for modified versions of the PA PI from model-generated P loss data. Our results indicate that several potential limitations exist with the original multiplicative index formulation and that a component formulation is more consistent with how P loss is calculated with P loss models and generally provides more accurate estimates of P loss. Moreover, using the PI weights calculated from the model-generated data noticeably improved the correlation between PI values and a large and diverse measured P loss data set. The approach we use here can be used with any P loss model and PI and thus can serve as a guide to assist states in evaluating and modifying their PI. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  16. A New Performance Improvement Model: Adding Benchmarking to the Analysis of Performance Indicator Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Kuwaiti, Ahmed; Homa, Karen; Maruthamuthu, Thennarasu

    2016-01-01

    A performance improvement model was developed that focuses on the analysis and interpretation of performance indicator (PI) data using statistical process control and benchmarking. PIs are suitable for comparison with benchmarks only if the data fall within the statistically accepted limit-that is, show only random variation. Specifically, if there is no significant special-cause variation over a period of time, then the data are ready to be benchmarked. The proposed Define, Measure, Control, Internal Threshold, and Benchmark model is adapted from the Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control (DMAIC) model. The model consists of the following five steps: Step 1. Define the process; Step 2. Monitor and measure the variation over the period of time; Step 3. Check the variation of the process; if stable (no significant variation), go to Step 4; otherwise, control variation with the help of an action plan; Step 4. Develop an internal threshold and compare the process with it; Step 5.1. Compare the process with an internal benchmark; and Step 5.2. Compare the process with an external benchmark. The steps are illustrated through the use of health care-associated infection (HAI) data collected for 2013 and 2014 from the Infection Control Unit, King Fahd Hospital, University of Dammam, Saudi Arabia. Monitoring variation is an important strategy in understanding and learning about a process. In the example, HAI was monitored for variation in 2013, and the need to have a more predictable process prompted the need to control variation by an action plan. The action plan was successful, as noted by the shift in the 2014 data, compared to the historical average, and, in addition, the variation was reduced. The model is subject to limitations: For example, it cannot be used without benchmarks, which need to be calculated the same way with similar patient populations, and it focuses only on the "Analyze" part of the DMAIC model.

  17. Evaluation of This Process on Healt Indicators of 11 Provinces Practicing Model of Family Medicine Firstly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Nesanir

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available AIM: The aim of This study is to eveluata the process On Healt Indicator In Between 2000 and 2007 years. Of 11 provinces practicing model of Family Medicine firstly. METHOD: This observational-descriptive study was made in May-June 2008 On Healt Indicator Of 11 provincespracticed the model of Family Medicine at least for a year. It vas taken through the Ministry of Health 20 Health Indicators belonging to the years 2000 and 2007 Of these provinces and also we benefited from data in annual studies from 2000 to 2006 of General Directorate of Primary Health Care of the Ministry of Health. RESULTS: There were. 3496 physicians and 6075 nurses, midwives in 2007 when 2677 physicians and 6042 nurse midwives were working in 2005 in 11 provinces. It was 90% in 2006 while immunization of DBT3 in 0 aged group was 80% in 2000 In 81 provinces , It was 92% and 90% in 11 provinces immunization of DBT3 in 0 aged group for the same years. Follow-up per number of pregnant women in Duzce in 2000 was 1.9 and it was 2.7 in 2005, it was 3.7in 2007. During the same years in Edirne the numbers were 9.0, 11.0, 4.6. Follow-up per number of confined in Eskisehir in 2000 was 1.2 and it was 2.1 in 2005 and it was 1.5 in 2007. in Izmir during the same years the numbers were 1.9, 2.4 and 2.2. In Duzce, the number of the observation per infant was 4.0 in 2000 and it was 7.7 in 2005 and it was 10.2 in 2007. In Eskisehir during the same year the numbers were 5.9, 9.4, 7.9. CONCLUSION: the number of physicians in primary care with this application has increased. In health-level indicators family medicine or primary health care services distinction is not whether the payment per service is deemed to be more specific. To better assess the health status indicators, field studies should be performed. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2010; 9(5.000: 493-504

  18. Good Faith and Game Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Caspar

    2016-01-01

    This article shows how game theory can be applied to model good faith mathematically using an example of a classic legal dispute related to rei vindicato. The issue is whether an owner has a legal right to his good if a person has bought it in good faith by using updated probabilities. The article...

  19. Multilateral trade liberalization and public goods provision in a North-South trade model with nonhomothetic preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Stibora, J.J.; Vaal, A. de

    2012-01-01

    Under nonhomothetic preferences developing countries are less likely to gain from multilateral trade liberalization than developed countries. This paper shows that this relative disadvantage for developing countries changes when the effects on public good provision are taken into account. The impact it has depends on the strength of their comparative advantage in export markets. We show that a strong (weak) comparative advantage in export markets mitigates (reinforces) the relative disadvanta...

  20. Kernel density surface modelling as a means to identify significant concentrations of vulnerable marine ecosystem indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen Kenchington

    Full Text Available The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105, concerning sustainable fisheries in the marine ecosystem, calls for the protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VME from destructive fishing practices. Subsequently, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO produced guidelines for identification of VME indicator species/taxa to assist in the implementation of the resolution, but recommended the development of case-specific operational definitions for their application. We applied kernel density estimation (KDE to research vessel trawl survey data from inside the fishing footprint of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO Regulatory Area in the high seas of the northwest Atlantic to create biomass density surfaces for four VME indicator taxa: large-sized sponges, sea pens, small and large gorgonian corals. These VME indicator taxa were identified previously by NAFO using the fragility, life history characteristics and structural complexity criteria presented by FAO, along with an evaluation of their recovery trajectories. KDE, a non-parametric neighbour-based smoothing function, has been used previously in ecology to identify hotspots, that is, areas of relatively high biomass/abundance. We present a novel approach of examining relative changes in area under polygons created from encircling successive biomass categories on the KDE surface to identify "significant concentrations" of biomass, which we equate to VMEs. This allows identification of the VMEs from the broader distribution of the species in the study area. We provide independent assessments of the VMEs so identified using underwater images, benthic sampling with other gear types (dredges, cores, and/or published species distribution models of probability of occurrence, as available. For each VME indicator taxon we provide a brief review of their ecological function which will be important in future assessments of significant adverse impact on these habitats here

  1. Assessing Goodness of Fit in Item Response Theory with Nonparametric Models: A Comparison of Posterior Probabilities and Kernel-Smoothing Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueiro, Manuel J.; Abad, Francisco J.

    2011-01-01

    The distance between nonparametric and parametric item characteristic curves has been proposed as an index of goodness of fit in item response theory in the form of a root integrated squared error index. This article proposes to use the posterior distribution of the latent trait as the nonparametric model and compares the performance of an index…

  2. High performance computation of landscape genomic models including local indicators of spatial association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stucki, S; Orozco-terWengel, P; Forester, B R; Duruz, S; Colli, L; Masembe, C; Negrini, R; Landguth, E; Jones, M R; Bruford, M W; Taberlet, P; Joost, S

    2017-09-01

    With the increasing availability of both molecular and topo-climatic data, the main challenges facing landscape genomics - that is the combination of landscape ecology with population genomics - include processing large numbers of models and distinguishing between selection and demographic processes (e.g. population structure). Several methods address the latter, either by estimating a null model of population history or by simultaneously inferring environmental and demographic effects. Here we present samβada, an approach designed to study signatures of local adaptation, with special emphasis on high performance computing of large-scale genetic and environmental data sets. samβada identifies candidate loci using genotype-environment associations while also incorporating multivariate analyses to assess the effect of many environmental predictor variables. This enables the inclusion of explanatory variables representing population structure into the models to lower the occurrences of spurious genotype-environment associations. In addition, samβada calculates local indicators of spatial association for candidate loci to provide information on whether similar genotypes tend to cluster in space, which constitutes a useful indication of the possible kinship between individuals. To test the usefulness of this approach, we carried out a simulation study and analysed a data set from Ugandan cattle to detect signatures of local adaptation with samβada, bayenv, lfmm and an F ST outlier method (FDIST approach in arlequin) and compare their results. samβada - an open source software for Windows, Linux and Mac OS X available at http://lasig.epfl.ch/sambada - outperforms other approaches and better suits whole-genome sequence data processing. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. N = 1 supersymmetric indices and the four-dimensional A-model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Closset, Cyril; Kim, Heeyeon; Willett, Brian

    2017-08-01

    We compute the supersymmetric partition function of N = 1 supersymmetric gauge theories with an R-symmetry on M_4\\cong M_{g,p}× {S}^1 , a principal elliptic fiber bundle of degree p over a genus- g Riemann surface, Σ g . Equivalently, we compute the generalized supersymmetric index I_{M}{_{g,p}, with the supersymmetric three-manifold M_{g,p} as the spatial slice. The ordinary N = 1 supersymmetric index on the round three-sphere is recovered as a special case. We approach this computation from the point of view of a topological A-model for the abelianized gauge fields on the base Σ g . This A-model — or A-twisted two-dimensional N = (2 , 2) gauge theory — encodes all the information about the generalized indices, which are viewed as expectations values of some canonically-defined surface defects wrapped on T 2 inside Σ g × T 2. Being defined by compactification on the torus, the A-model also enjoys natural modular properties, governed by the four-dimensional 't Hooft anomalies. As an application of our results, we provide new tests of Seiberg duality. We also present a new evaluation formula for the three-sphere index as a sum over two-dimensional vacua.

  4. Gamma-variate modeling of indicator dilution curves in electrical impedance tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hentze, Benjamin; Muders, Thomas; Luepschen, Henning; Leonhardt, Steffen; Putensen, Christian; Walter, Marian

    2017-07-01

    Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a non-invasive imaging technique, that can be used to monitor regional lung ventilation (V̇) in intensive care units (ICU) at bedside. This work introduces a method to extract regional lung perfusion (Q̇) from EIT image streams in order to quantify regional gas exchange in the lungs. EIT data from a single porcine animal trial, recorded during injection of a contrast agent (NaCl 10%) into a central venous catheter (CVC), are used for evaluation. Using semi-negative matrix factorization (Semi-NMF) a set of source signals is extracted from the data. A subsequent non-linear fit of a gamma-variate model to the source signals results in model signals, describing contrast agent flow through the cardio-pulmonary system. A linear fit of the model signals to the EIT image stream then yields functional images ofQ̇. Additionally, a pulmonary transit function (PTF) and parameters, such as mean transit time (MTT), time to peak (TTP) and area under curve (AUC) are derived. In result, EIT was used to track changes of regional lung ventilation to perfusion ratio (V̇/Q̇) during changes of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP). Furthermore, correlations of MTT and AUC with cardiac output (CO) indicate that CO measurement by EIT might be possible.

  5. Modelling effective soil depth at field scale from soil sensors and geomorphometric indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Castro Franco

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The effective soil depth (ESD affects both dynamic of hydrology and plant growth. In the southeast of Buenos Aires province, the presence of petrocalcic horizon constitutes a limitation to ESD. The aim of this study was to develop a statistic model to predict spatial patterns of ESD using apparent electrical conductivity at two depths: 0-30 (ECa_30 and 0-90 (ECa_90 and geomorphometric indices. To do this, a Random Forest (RF analysis was applied. RF was able to select those variables according to their predictive potential for ESD. In that order, ECa_90, catchment slope, elevation and ECa_30 had main prediction importance. For validating purposes, 3035 ESD measurements were carried out, in five fields. ECa and ESD values showed complex spatial pattern at short distances. RF parameters with lowest error (OOBerror were calibrated. RF model simplified which uses main predictors had a similar predictive development to it uses all predictors. Furthermore, RF model simplified had the ability to delineate similar pattern to those obtained from in situ measure of ESD in all fields. In general, RF was an effective method and easy to work. However, further studies are needed which add other types of variables importance calculation, greater number of fields and test other predictors in order to improve these results.

  6. Quantitative modeling of clinical, cellular, and extracellular matrix variables suggest prognostic indicators in cancer: a model in neuroblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadeo, Irene; Piqueras, Marta; Montaner, David; Villamón, Eva; Berbegall, Ana P; Cañete, Adela; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

    2014-02-01

    Risk classification and treatment stratification for cancer patients is restricted by our incomplete picture of the complex and unknown interactions between the patient's organism and tumor tissues (transformed cells supported by tumor stroma). Moreover, all clinical factors and laboratory studies used to indicate treatment effectiveness and outcomes are by their nature a simplification of the biological system of cancer, and cannot yet incorporate all possible prognostic indicators. A multiparametric analysis on 184 tumor cylinders was performed. To highlight the benefit of integrating digitized medical imaging into this field, we present the results of computational studies carried out on quantitative measurements, taken from stromal and cancer cells and various extracellular matrix fibers interpenetrated by glycosaminoglycans, and eight current approaches to risk stratification systems in patients with primary and nonprimary neuroblastoma. New tumor tissue indicators from both fields, the cellular and the extracellular elements, emerge as reliable prognostic markers for risk stratification and could be used as molecular targets of specific therapies. The key to dealing with personalized therapy lies in the mathematical modeling. The use of bioinformatics in patient-tumor-microenvironment data management allows a predictive model in neuroblastoma.

  7. Comparison of Enzymes / Non-Enzymes Proteins Classification Models Based on 3D, Composition, Sequences and Topological Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Munteanu, Cristian Robert

    2014-01-01

    Comparison of Enzymes / Non-Enzymes Proteins Classification Models Based on 3D, Composition, Sequences and Topological Indices, German Conference on Bioinformatics (GCB), Potsdam, Germany (September, 2007)

  8. Use of Quality Models and Indicators for Evaluating Test Quality in an ESP Course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IEVA RUDZINSKA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Qualitative methods of assessment play a decisive role in education in general and in language learning in particular. The necessity to perform a qualitative assessment comes from both increased student competition in higher education institutions (HEIs, and hence higher demands for fair assessment, and a growing public awareness on higher education issues, and therefore the need to account for a wider circle of stakeholders, including society as a whole. The aim of the present paper is to study the regulations and laws pertaining to the issue of assessment in Latvian HEIs, as well as to carry out literature sources analysis about assessment in language testing, seeking to select criteria characterizing the quality of English for Specific Purposes (ESP tests and to apply the model of evaluating the quality of a language test on an example of a test in sport English, developed in a Latvian higher education institution. An analysis of the regulations and laws about assessment in higher education and literature sources about tests in language courses has enabled the development of a test quality model, consisting of seven intrinsic quality criteria: clarity, adequacy, deep approach, attractiveness, originality/similarity, orientation towards student learning result/process, test scoring objectivity/subjectivity. Quality criteria comprise eleven indicators. The reliability of the given model is evaluated by means of the whole model, its criteria and indicator Cronbach’s alphas and point-biserial (item-total correlations or discrimination indexes DI. The test was taken by 63 participants, all of them 2nd year full time students attending a Latvian higher education institution. A statistical data analysis was performed with SPSS 17.0. The results show that, although test adequacy and clarity is sufficiently high, attractiveness and deep approach should be improved. Also the reliability of one version of the test is higher than that of the other one

  9. Spin squeezing as an indicator of quantum chaos in the Dicke model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Lijun; Yan, Dong; Ma, Jian; Wang, Xiaoguang

    2009-04-01

    We study spin squeezing, an intrinsic quantum property, in the Dicke model without the rotating-wave approximation. We show that the spin squeezing can reveal the underlying chaotic and regular structures in phase space given by a Poincaré section, namely, it acts as an indicator of quantum chaos. Spin squeezing vanishes after a very short time for an initial coherent state centered in a chaotic region, whereas it persists over a longer time for the coherent state centered in a regular region of the phase space. We also study the distribution of the mean spin directions when quantum dynamics takes place. Finally, we discuss relations among spin squeezing, bosonic quadrature squeezing, and two-qubit entanglement in the dynamical processes.

  10. The approach of Bayesian model indicates media awareness of medical errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravichandran, K.; Arulchelvan, S.

    2016-06-01

    This research study brings out the factors behind the increase in medical malpractices in the Indian subcontinent in the present day environment and impacts of television media awareness towards it. Increased media reporting of medical malpractices and errors lead to hospitals taking corrective action and improve the quality of medical services that they provide. The model of Cultivation Theory can be used to measure the influence of media in creating awareness of medical errors. The patient's perceptions of various errors rendered by the medical industry from different parts of India were taken up for this study. Bayesian method was used for data analysis and it gives absolute values to indicate satisfaction of the recommended values. To find out the impact of maintaining medical records of a family online by the family doctor in reducing medical malpractices which creates the importance of service quality in medical industry through the ICT.

  11. Assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions from cogeneration and trigeneration systems. Part I: Models and indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chicco, Gianfranco; Mancarella, Pierluigi

    2008-01-01

    The diffusion of cogeneration and trigeneration plants as local generation sources could bring significant energy saving and emission reduction of various types of pollutants with respect to the separate production of electricity, heat and cooling power. The advantages in terms of primary energy saving are well established. However, the potential of combined heat and power (CHP) and combined cooling heat and power (CCHP) systems for reducing the emission of hazardous greenhouse gases (GHG) needs to be further investigated. This paper presents and discusses a novel approach, based upon an original indicator called trigeneration CO 2 emission reduction (TCO 2 ER), to assess the emission reduction of CO 2 and other GHGs from CHP and CCHP systems with respect to the separate production. The indicator is defined in function of the performance characteristics of the CHP and CCHP systems, represented with black-box models, and of the GHG emission characteristics from conventional sources. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is shown in the companion paper (Part II: Analysis techniques and application cases) with application to various cogeneration and trigeneration solutions

  12. Bioclimatic indices based on the menex model example on Banja Luka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pecelj Milica

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It has long been known that weather and climate have influence on human health and well-being. The human organism is in constant interaction with the environmental conditions. To access the atmospheric impact on humans, different methods in human bioclimatology are created. Most of them are based on human heat balance. In this paper it has been tried to present several bioclimatic indices based on the human heat balance according to the bioclimatic model menex (man-environment exchange. The aim of this paper is to present bioclimatic conditions in Banja Luka vicinage (Bosnia and Herzegovina and to explore climate-recreation relationship. In the near vicinity of Banja Luka there are three spa centers that are favorable for recreation. For this analysis average available daily weather data for two extreme months (January and July, 1990 were used as well as the average monthly weather values for the period 1961-1990. The data were taken from Banja Luka weather station. As a result, several thermophisiological bioclimatic indices have been obtained. These are heat load in man, physiological strain, subjective temperature, subjective physiological temperature.

  13. [Influence of ademol on NO metabolism indices in rats with modeling myocardial infarction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodakivs'kyĭ, O A; Pavlov, S V; Bukhtiiarova, N V

    2013-01-01

    It was established in experiments on the rats in the acute period of modeling pituitrin-isadrin myocardial infarction the formation of nitrogen monoxide decreases along with its accelerated transformation into peroxynitrite. It was evidenced by more than double inhibition of NO synthase activity in the myocardium and by decreasing the amount of nitrates on the background of the increasing level of peroxynitrites' marker--nitrotyrosine by 246.6% at an average. Experimental therapy of rats by ademol which is a derivate of adamantan (1-adamantiloxy-3-morpholino-2 propanol hydrochloride) better than by corvitin normalizes the processes of synthesis of nitric oxide. At the same time ademol probably exceeded the reference drug in ability to increase NO synthase activity and amount of nitrate, and promoted a decrease of the level of nitrotyrosine in the myocardium on the average by 36.3; 50.6 and 12.7%, respectively. Corrective influence of ademol on indicators of metabolism in NO system under the conditions of acute cardiac ischemia indicates to promicing development of domestic cardioprotector on its base.

  14. How to use composite indicator and linear programming model for determine sustainable tourism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziaabadi, Maryam; Malakootian, Mohammad; Zare Mehrjerdi, Mohammad Reza; Jalaee, Seied Abdolmajid; Mehrabi Boshrabadi, Hosein

    2017-01-01

    The tourism industry which is one of the most dynamic economic activities in today's world plays a significant role in the sustainable development. Therefore, in addition to paying attention to tourism, sustainable tourism must be taken into huge account; otherwise, the environment and its health will be damaged irreparably. To determine the level of sustainability in this study, indicators of sustainable tourism were first presented in three environmental health, economic and social aspects. Then, the levels of sustainable tourism and environmental sustainability were practically measured in different cities of Kerman Province using a composite indicator, a linear programming model, Delphi method and the questionnaire technique. Finally, the study cities (tourist attractions) were ranked. Result of this study showed that unfortunately the tourism opportunities were not used appropriately in these cities and tourist destinations, and that environmental aspect (health and environmental sustainability) had very bad situations compared to social and economic aspects. In other words, environmental health had the lowest levels of sustainability. The environment is a place for all human activities like tourism, social and economic issues; therefore, its stability and health is of great importance. Thus, it is necessary to pay more attention to sustainability of activities, management and environmental health in planning sustainable development in regional and national policy.

  15. A business model for managing system change through strategic financing and performance indicators: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Mary I; Milch, Heidi; Curtis, Peter; Endress, Phillip

    2012-06-01

    This article describes how a system of care operated by a county government agency used a fiscal crisis as the opportunity to reform its children's system. A cross-system response to the crisis is outlined that includes a system of care framework coupled with a business model, inter-departmental collaboration and leadership, the use of strategic reinvestment strategies, and a quality improvement system that focuses on key indicators. Implementation of the system change is described with a specific focus on cross-system entry points, financing strategies that re-allocate funds from deep-end programs to community-based services, and management oversight through the use of performance indicators to monitor and support effectiveness. This article examines the results of the system change, including the diversion of youth from system penetration, the reduction in residential treatment bed days, the re-allocation of these savings to community-based services, and the outcomes of children who were diverted from residential care and served in the community. The article offers a number of recommendations for other communities contemplating system change.

  16. The effect of measurement quality on targeted structural model fit indices: A comment on Lance, Beck, Fan, and Carter (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeish, Daniel; Hancock, Gregory R

    2018-03-01

    Lance, Beck, Fan, and Carter (2016) recently advanced 6 new fit indices and associated cutoff values for assessing data-model fit in the structural portion of traditional latent variable path models. The authors appropriately argued that, although most researchers' theoretical interest rests with the latent structure, they still rely on indices of global model fit that simultaneously assess both the measurement and structural portions of the model. As such, Lance et al. proposed indices intended to assess the structural portion of the model in isolation of the measurement model. Unfortunately, although these strategies separate the assessment of the structure from the fit of the measurement model, they do not isolate the structure's assessment from the quality of the measurement model. That is, even with a perfectly fitting measurement model, poorer quality (i.e., less reliable) measurements will yield a more favorable verdict regarding structural fit, whereas better quality (i.e., more reliable) measurements will yield a less favorable structural assessment. This phenomenon, referred to by Hancock and Mueller (2011) as the reliability paradox, affects not only traditional global fit indices but also those structural indices proposed by Lance et al. as well. Fortunately, as this comment will clarify, indices proposed by Hancock and Mueller help to mitigate this problem and allow the structural portion of the model to be assessed independently of both the fit of the measurement model as well as the quality of indicator variables contained therein. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Mapping SOC (Soil Organic Carbon) using LiDAR-derived vegetation indices in a random forest regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Will, R. M.; Glenn, N. F.; Benner, S. G.; Pierce, J. L.; Spaete, L.; Li, A.

    2015-12-01

    Quantifying SOC (Soil Organic Carbon) storage in complex terrain is challenging due to high spatial variability. Generally, the challenge is met by transforming point data to the entire landscape using surrogate, spatially-distributed, variables like elevation or precipitation. In many ecosystems, remotely sensed information on above-ground vegetation (e.g. NDVI) is a good predictor of below-ground carbon stocks. In this project, we are attempting to improve this predictive method by incorporating LiDAR-derived vegetation indices. LiDAR provides a mechanism for improved characterization of aboveground vegetation by providing structural parameters such as vegetation height and biomass. In this study, a random forest model is used to predict SOC using a suite of LiDAR-derived vegetation indices as predictor variables. The Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) is an ideal location for a study of this type since it encompasses a strong elevation/precipitation gradient that supports lower biomass sagebrush ecosystems at low elevations and forests with more biomass at higher elevations. Sagebrush ecosystems composed of Wyoming, Low and Mountain Sagebrush have SOC values ranging from .4 to 1% (top 30 cm), while higher biomass ecosystems composed of aspen, juniper and fir have SOC values approaching 4% (top 30 cm). Large differences in SOC have been observed between canopy and interspace locations and high resolution vegetation information is likely to explain plot scale variability in SOC. Mapping of the SOC reservoir will help identify underlying controls on SOC distribution and provide insight into which processes are most important in determining SOC in semi-arid mountainous regions. In addition, airborne LiDAR has the potential to characterize vegetation communities at a high resolution and could be a tool for improving estimates of SOC at larger scales.

  18. The effects of digital elevation model resolution on the calculation and predictions of topographic wetness indices.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drover, Damion, Ryan

    2011-12-01

    One of the largest exports in the Southeast U.S. is forest products. Interest in biofuels using forest biomass has increased recently, leading to more research into better forest management BMPs. The USDA Forest Service, along with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, University of Georgia and Oregon State University are researching the impacts of intensive forest management for biofuels on water quality and quantity at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. Surface runoff of saturated areas, transporting excess nutrients and contaminants, is a potential water quality issue under investigation. Detailed maps of variable source areas and soil characteristics would therefore be helpful prior to treatment. The availability of remotely sensed and computed digital elevation models (DEMs) and spatial analysis tools make it easy to calculate terrain attributes. These terrain attributes can be used in models to predict saturated areas or other attributes in the landscape. With laser altimetry, an area can be flown to produce very high resolution data, and the resulting data can be resampled into any resolution of DEM desired. Additionally, there exist many maps that are in various resolutions of DEM, such as those acquired from the U.S. Geological Survey. Problems arise when using maps derived from different resolution DEMs. For example, saturated areas can be under or overestimated depending on the resolution used. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of DEM resolution on the calculation of topographic wetness indices used to predict variable source areas of saturation, and to find the best resolutions to produce prediction maps of soil attributes like nitrogen, carbon, bulk density and soil texture for low-relief, humid-temperate forested hillslopes. Topographic wetness indices were calculated based on the derived terrain attributes, slope and specific catchment area, from five different DEM resolutions. The DEMs were resampled from LiDAR, which is a

  19. Assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data into a global ocean circulation model: How good are the results?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

    1999-11-01

    The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/Poseidon data are analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model. The assimilation's success is examined by analyzing its consistency and reliability measured by formal error estimates with respect to independent measurements. Improvements in model solution are demonstrated, in particular, properties not directly measured. Comparisons are performed with sea level measured by tide gauges, subsurface temperatures and currents from moorings, and bottom pressure measurements. Model representation errors dictate what can and cannot be resolved by assimilation, and its identification is emphasized.

  20. Effect of Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling Approach on Decision-Making: Example using Equipment Performance Indicator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dana Kelly; Robert Youngblood

    2012-06-01

    Quantitative risk assessments are an integral part of risk-informed regulation of current and future nuclear plants in the U.S. The Bayesian approach to uncertainty, in which both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties are represented with precise probability distributions, is the standard approach to modeling uncertainties in such quantitative risk assessments. However, there are long-standing criticisms of the Bayesian approach to epistemic uncertainty from many perspectives, and a number of alternative approaches have been proposed. Among these alternatives, the most promising (and most rapidly developing) would appear to be the concept of imprecise probability. In this paper, we employ a performance indicator example to focus the discussion. We first give a short overview of the traditional Bayesian paradigm and review some its controversial aspects, for example, issues with so-called noninformative prior distributions. We then discuss how the imprecise probability approach treats these issues and compare it with two other approaches: sensitivity analysis and hierarchical Bayes modeling. We conclude with some practical implications for risk-informed decision making.

  1. Modeling Agricultural Crop Production in China using AVHRR-based Vegetation Health Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, B.; Kogan, F.; Guo, W.; Zhiyuan, P.; Xianfeng, J.

    Weather related crop losses have always been a concern for farmers On a wider scale it has always influenced decision of Governments traders and other policy makers for the purpose of balanced food supplies trade and distribution of aid to the nations in need Therefore national policy and decision makers are giving increasing importance to early assessment of crop losses in response to weather fluctuations This presentation emphasizes utility of AVHRR-based Vegetation health index VHI for early warning of drought-related losses of agricultural production in China The VHI is a three-channel index characterizing greenness vigor and temperature of land surface which can be used as proxy for estimation of how healthy and potentially productive could be vegetation China is the largest in the world producer of grain including wheat and rice and cotton In the major agricultural areas China s crop production is very dependent on weather The VHI being a proxy indicator of weather impact on vegetation showed some correlation with productivity of agricultural crops during the critical period of their development The periods of the strongest correlation were investigated and used to build regression models where crop yield deviation from technological trend was accepted as a dependent and VHI as independent variables The models were developed for several major crops including wheat corn and soybeans

  2. Using remotely sensed vegetation indices to model ecological pasture conditions in Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.

  3. Setting a good example: supervisors as work-life-friendly role models within the context of boundary management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Anna R; Binnewies, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    This multisource, multilevel study examined the importance of supervisors as work-life-friendly role models for employees' boundary management. Particularly, we tested whether supervisors' work-home segmentation behavior represents work-life-friendly role modeling for their employees. Furthermore, we tested whether work-life-friendly role modeling is positively related to employees' work-home segmentation behavior. Also, we examined whether work-life-friendly role modeling is positively related to employees' well-being in terms of feeling less exhausted and disengaged. In total, 237 employees and their 75 supervisors participated in our study. Results from hierarchical linear models revealed that supervisors who showed more segmentation behavior to separate work and home were more likely perceived as work-life-friendly role models. Employees with work-life-friendly role models were more likely to segment between work and home, and they felt less exhausted and disengaged. One may conclude that supervisors as work-life-friendly role models are highly important for employees' work-home segmentation behavior and gatekeepers to implement a work-life-friendly organizational culture. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Review evaluation indicators of health information technology course of master's degree in medical sciences universities' based on CIPP Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarmohammadian, Mohammad Hossein; Mohebbi, Nooshin

    2015-01-01

    Sensitivity of teaching and learning processes in universities emphasizes the necessity of assessment of the quality of education which improves the efficiency and effectiveness of the country. This study was conducted with an aim to review and develop the evaluation criteria of health information technology course at Master of Science level in Tehran, Shahid Beheshti, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Kashan medical universities in 2012 by using CIPP model. This was an applied and descriptive research with statistical population of faculty members (23), students (97), directorates (5), and library staff (5), with a total of 130 people, and sampling was done as a census. In order to collect data, four questionnaires were used based on Likert scale with scores ranging from 1 to 5. Questionnaires' validity was confirmed by consulting with health information technology and educational evaluation experts, and questionnaires' reliability of directorates, faculty, students, and library staff was tested using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient formula, which gave r = 0.74, r = 0.93, r = 0.98, and r = 0.80, respectively. SPSS software for data analysis and both descriptive and inferential statistics containing mean, frequency percentage, standard deviation, Pearson correlation, and Spearman correlation were used. With studies from various sources, commentary of experts, and based on the CIPP evaluation model, 139 indicators were determined and then evaluated, which were associated with this course based on the three factors of context, input, and process in the areas of human resources professional, academic services, students, directors, faculty, curriculum, budget, facilities, teaching-learning activities, and scientific research activities of students and faculty, and the activities of the library staff. This study showed that in total, the health information technology course at the Master of Science level is relatively good, but trying to improve and correct it in some areas and

  5. Income and Wealth Distribution in a Neoclassical Two-Sector Heterogeneous-Households Growth Model with Elastic Labor Supply and Consumer Durable Goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a two-sector two-group growth model with elastic labor supply and consumer durable goods. We study dynamics of wealth and income distribution in a competitive economy with capital accumulation as the main engine of economic growth. The model is built on the Uzawa two-sector model. It is also influenced by the neoclassical growth theory and the post-Keynesian theory of growth and distribution. We plot the motion of the economic system and determine the economic equilibrium. We carry out comparative dynamic analysis with regard to the propensity to save and improvements in human capital and technology.

  6. Integrated conceptual ecological model and habitat indices for the southwest Florida coastal wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingard, G. Lynn; Lorenz, J. L.

    2014-01-01

    The coastal wetlands of southwest Florida that extend from Charlotte Harbor south to Cape Sable, contain more than 60,000 ha of mangroves and 22,177 ha of salt marsh. These coastal wetlands form a transition zone between the freshwater and marine environments of the South Florida Coastal Marine Ecosystem (SFCME). The coastal wetlands provide diverse ecosystem services that are valued by society and thus are important to the economy of the state. Species from throughout the region spend part of their life cycle in the coastal wetlands, including many marine and coastal-dependent species, making this zone critical to the ecosystem health of the Everglades and the SFCME. However, the coastal wetlands are increasingly vulnerable due to rising sea level, changes in storm intensity and frequency, land use, and water management practices. They are at the boundary of the region covered by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), and thus are impacted by both CERP and marine resource management decisions. An integrated conceptual ecological model (ICEM) for the southwest coastal wetlands of Florida was developed that illustrates the linkages between drivers, pressures, ecological process, and ecosystem services. Five ecological indicators are presented: (1) mangrove community structure and spatial extent; (2) waterbirds; (3) prey-base fish and macroinvertebrates; (4) crocodilians; and (5) periphyton. Most of these indicators are already used in other areas of south Florida and the SFCME, and therefore will allow metrics from the coastal wetlands to be used in system-wide assessments that incorporate the entire Greater Everglades Ecosystem.

  7. Modelling spatiotemporal distribution patterns of earthworms in order to indicate hydrological soil processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palm, Juliane; Klaus, Julian; van Schaik, Loes; Zehe, Erwin; Schröder, Boris

    2010-05-01

    Soils provide central ecosystem functions in recycling nutrients, detoxifying harmful chemicals as well as regulating microclimate and local hydrological processes. The internal regulation of these functions and therefore the development of healthy and fertile soils mainly depend on the functional diversity of plants and animals. Soil organisms drive essential processes such as litter decomposition, nutrient cycling, water dynamics, and soil structure formation. Disturbances by different soil management practices (e.g., soil tillage, fertilization, pesticide application) affect the distribution and abundance of soil organisms and hence influence regulating processes. The strong relationship between environmental conditions and soil organisms gives us the opportunity to link spatiotemporal distribution patterns of indicator species with the potential provision of essential soil processes on different scales. Earthworms are key organisms for soil function and affect, among other things, water dynamics and solute transport in soils. Through their burrowing activity, earthworms increase the number of macropores by building semi-permanent burrow systems. In the unsaturated zone, earthworm burrows act as preferential flow pathways and affect water infiltration, surface-, subsurface- and matrix flow as well as the transport of water and solutes into deeper soil layers. Thereby different ecological earthworm types have different importance. Deep burrowing anecic earthworm species (e.g., Lumbricus terrestris) affect the vertical flow and thus increase the risk of potential contamination of ground water with agrochemicals. In contrast, horizontal burrowing endogeic (e.g., Aporrectodea caliginosa) and epigeic species (e.g., Lumbricus rubellus) increase water conductivity and the diffuse distribution of water and solutes in the upper soil layers. The question which processes are more relevant is pivotal for soil management and risk assessment. Thus, finding relevant

  8. Observation and Modelling of Soil Water Content Towards Improved Performance Indicators of Large Irrigation Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labbassi, Kamal; Akdim, Nadia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Irrigation performance may be evaluated for different objectives such as equity, adequacy, or effectiveness. We are using two performance indicators: IP2 measures the consistency of the allocation of the irrigation water with gross Crop Water requirements, while IP3 measures the effectiveness of irrigation by evaluating the increase in crop transpiration between the case of no irrigation and the case of different levels of irrigation. To evaluate IP3 we need to calculate the soil water balance for the two cases. We have developed a system based on the hydrological model SWAP (Soil Water atmosphere Plant) to calculate spatial and temporal patterns of crop transpiration T(x, y, t) and of the vertical distribution of soil water content θ(x, y, z, t). On one hand, in the absence of ground measurement of soil water content to validate and evaluate the precision of the estimated one, a possibility would be to use satellite retrievals of top soil water content, such as the data to be provided by SMAP. On the other hand, to calculate IP3 we need root zone rather than top soil water content. In principle, we could use the model SWAP to establish a relationship between the top soil and root zone water content. Such relationship could be a simple empirical one or a data assimilation procedure. In our study area (Doukkala- Morocco) we have assessed the consistency of the water allocation with the actual irrigated area and crop water requirements (CWR) by using a combination of multispectral satellite image time series (i,e RapidEye (REIS), SPOT4 (HRVIR1) and Landsat 8 (OLI) images acquired during the 2012/2013 agricultural season). To obtain IP2 (x, y, t) we need to determine ETc (x, y, t). We have applied two (semi)empirical approaches: the first one is the Kc-NDVI method, based on the correlation between the Near Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the value of crop coefficient (kc); the second one is the analytical approach based on the direct application of Penman

  9. Comparison of co-expression measures: mutual information, correlation, and model based indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Lin; Langfelder, Peter; Horvath, Steve

    2012-12-09

    Co-expression measures are often used to define networks among genes. Mutual information (MI) is often used as a generalized correlation measure. It is not clear how much MI adds beyond standard (robust) correlation measures or regression model based association measures. Further, it is important to assess what transformations of these and other co-expression measures lead to biologically meaningful modules (clusters of genes). We provide a comprehensive comparison between mutual information and several correlation measures in 8 empirical data sets and in simulations. We also study different approaches for transforming an adjacency matrix, e.g. using the topological overlap measure. Overall, we confirm close relationships between MI and correlation in all data sets which reflects the fact that most gene pairs satisfy linear or monotonic relationships. We discuss rare situations when the two measures disagree. We also compare correlation and MI based approaches when it comes to defining co-expression network modules. We show that a robust measure of correlation (the biweight midcorrelation transformed via the topological overlap transformation) leads to modules that are superior to MI based modules and maximal information coefficient (MIC) based modules in terms of gene ontology enrichment. We present a function that relates correlation to mutual information which can be used to approximate the mutual information from the corresponding correlation coefficient. We propose the use of polynomial or spline regression models as an alternative to MI for capturing non-linear relationships between quantitative variables. The biweight midcorrelation outperforms MI in terms of elucidating gene pairwise relationships. Coupled with the topological overlap matrix transformation, it often leads to more significantly enriched co-expression modules. Spline and polynomial networks form attractive alternatives to MI in case of non-linear relationships. Our results indicate that MI

  10. [Caffeine: traditional and new therapeutic indications and use as a dermatological model drug].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bors, Luca; Bajza, Ágnes; Kocsis, Dorottya; Erdő, Franciska

    2018-03-01

    Coffee consumption had already been described in the 15th century. The spreading of coffee drinking was not only a consequence of its delicious aromatic taste, but also of its pharmacological effects, especially due to its caffeine content. In this review, the mechanisms behind its complex stimulatory effects and the latest studies on the possible new therapeutic indications of caffeine are summarized. Several papers reported the neuroprotective (in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease) and hepatoprotective profiles of caffeine, and we show the most promising new results about its preventive properties in dermal malignancies. These findings were described both in cell cultures and in vivo. The application of caffeine and coffee in cosmetology and dermatological products is based on their antioxidant property and on the above-mentioned beneficial effects. Caffeine is also presented here as a dermatological model drug due to its hydrophilic profile. It can be used for designing and comparing different novel drug formulations, although beside the transcellular route, the follicular and transappendageal pathways play also important roles in its skin penetration. Taken together, caffeine molecule has many recently discovered beneficial pharmacological effects, but one should be careful with its excessive consumption. It can result in several adverse events if overdosed and in case of regular intake of high doses, after abandonment, withdrawal symptoms may appear. Orv Hetil. 2018; 159(10): 384-390.

  11. Extending a Consensus-based Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average (FOWA Model in New Water Quality Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Baghapour

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In developing a specific WQI (Water Quality Index, many water quality parameters are involved with different levels of importance. The impact of experts’ different opinions and viewpoints, current risks affecting their opinions, and plurality of the involved parameters double the significance of the issue. Hence, the current study tries to apply a consensus-based FOWA (Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average model as one of the most powerful and well-known Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM techniques to determine the importance of the used parameters in the development of such WQIs which is shown with an example. This operator has provided the capability of modeling the risks in decision-making through applying the optimistic degree of stakeholders and their power coupled with the use of fuzzy numbers. Totally, 22 water quality parameters for drinking purposes are considered in this study. To determine the weight of each parameter, the viewpoints of 4 decision-making groups of experts are taken into account. After determining the final weights, to validate the use of each parameter in a potential WQI, consensus degrees of both the decision makers and the parameters are calculated. All calculations are carried out by using the expertise software called Group Fuzzy Decision Making (GFDM. The highest and the lowest weight values, 0.999 and 0.073 respectively, are related to Hg and temperature. Regarding the type of consumption that is drinking, the parameters’ weights and ranks are consistent with their health impacts. Moreover, the decision makers’ highest and lowest consensus degrees were 0.9905 and 0.9669, respectively. Among the water quality parameters, temperature (with consensus degree of 0.9972 and Pb (with consensus degree of 0.9665, received the highest and lowest agreement from the decision making group. This study indicates that the weight of parameters in determining water quality largely depends on the experts’ opinions and

  12. Extending a Consensus-based Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average (FOWA Model in New Water Quality Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Baghapour

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In developing a specific WQI (Water Quality Index, many quality parameters are involved with different levels of importance. The impact of experts’ different opinions and viewpoints, current risks affecting their opinions, and plurality of the involved parameters double the significance of the issue. Hence, the current study tries to apply a consensus-based FOWA (Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average model as one of the most powerful and well-known Multi-Criteria Decision- Making (MCDM techniques to determine the importance of the used parameters in the development of such WQIs which is shown with an example. This operator has provided the capability of modeling the risks in decision-making through applying the optimistic degree of stakeholders and their power coupled with the use of fuzzy numbers. Totally, 22 water quality parameters for drinking purposes were considered in this study. To determine the weight of each parameter, the viewpoints of 4 decision-making groups of experts were taken into account. After determining the final weights, to validate the use of each parameter in a potential WQI, consensus degrees of both the decision makers and the parameters are calculated. The highest and the lowest weight values, 0.999 and 0.073 respectively, were related to Hg and temperature. Regarding the type of consumption that was drinking, the parameters’ weights and ranks were consistent with their health impacts. Moreover, the decision makers’ highest and lowest consensus degrees were 0.9905 and 0.9669, respectively. Among the water quality parameters, temperature (with consensus degree of 0.9972 and Pb (with consensus degree of 0.9665, received the highest and lowest agreement with the decision-making group. This study indicated that the weight of parameters in determining water quality largely depends on the experts’ opinions and approaches. Moreover, using the FOWA model provides results accurate and closer- to-reality on the significance of

  13. Waste indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dall, O.; Lassen, C.; Hansen, E. [Cowi A/S, Lyngby (Denmark)

    2003-07-01

    The Waste Indicator Project focuses on methods to evaluate the efficiency of waste management. The project proposes the use of three indicators for resource consumption, primary energy and landfill requirements, based on the life-cycle principles applied in the EDIP Project. Trial runs are made With the indicators on paper, glass packaging and aluminium, and two models are identified for mapping the Danish waste management, of which the least extensive focuses on real and potential savings. (au)

  14. Waste indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dall, O.; Lassen, C.; Hansen, E.

    2003-01-01

    The Waste Indicator Project focuses on methods to evaluate the efficiency of waste management. The project proposes the use of three indicators for resource consumption, primary energy and landfill requirements, based on the life-cycle principles applied in the EDIP Project. Trial runs are made With the indicators on paper, glass packaging and aluminium, and two models are identified for mapping the Danish waste management, of which the least extensive focuses on real and potential savings. (au)

  15. What makes a sustainable business model successful? : An empirical comparison of two peer-to-peer goods-sharing platforms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piscicelli, Laura; Ludden, Geke D.S.; Cooper, Tim

    2018-01-01

    Sustainable business models are intended to create economic value while benefitting the environment and society. Their wider adoption and diffusion is necessary to tackle pressing societal problems. How they are implemented and what determines their success (or lack thereof) in the market is not yet

  16. The relational model is dead, SQL is dead, and i don't feel so good myself

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Atzeni, Paolo; Jensen, Christian S .; Orsi, Giorgio

    2013-01-01

    on Conceptual Modeling. The panelists include: Paolo Atzeni (Università Roma Tre, Italy), Umeshwar Dayal (HP Labs, USA), Christian S. Jensen (Aarhus University, Denmark), and Sudha Ram (University of Arizona, USA). Quotations from movies are used as a playful though effective way to convey the dramatic changes...

  17. 'Too much good news' - are Alzheimer mouse models trying to tell us how to prevent, not cure, Alzheimer's disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahs, Kathleen R; Ashe, Karen H

    2010-08-01

    Scores of compounds ameliorate cognitive deficits or neuropathology in transgenic mouse models of Alzheimer's disease (AD), yet these triumphs in mice have not translated into successful therapies for people. Why have studies in mice failed to predict results of human trials? We argue that most transgenic mouse 'models of AD' actually simulate the asymptomatic phase of the disease, and the results of interventional studies in these mice should be considered in the context of disease prevention. In addition, recent advances in imaging technology and biomarker discovery should aid in comparisons of mouse and human neurological status and, importantly, might allow us to predict better the response of people to drugs tested in mice. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. “Space, the Final Frontier”: How Good are Agent-Based Models at Simulating Individuals and Space in Cities?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Heppenstall

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cities are complex systems, comprising of many interacting parts. How we simulate and understand causality in urban systems is continually evolving. Over the last decade the agent-based modeling (ABM paradigm has provided a new lens for understanding the effects of interactions of individuals and how through such interactions macro structures emerge, both in the social and physical environment of cities. However, such a paradigm has been hindered due to computational power and a lack of large fine scale datasets. Within the last few years we have witnessed a massive increase in computational processing power and storage, combined with the onset of Big Data. Today geographers find themselves in a data rich era. We now have access to a variety of data sources (e.g., social media, mobile phone data, etc. that tells us how, and when, individuals are using urban spaces. These data raise several questions: can we effectively use them to understand and model cities as complex entities? How well have ABM approaches lent themselves to simulating the dynamics of urban processes? What has been, or will be, the influence of Big Data on increasing our ability to understand and simulate cities? What is the appropriate level of spatial analysis and time frame to model urban phenomena? Within this paper we discuss these questions using several examples of ABM applied to urban geography to begin a dialogue about the utility of ABM for urban modeling. The arguments that the paper raises are applicable across the wider research environment where researchers are considering using this approach.

  19. A goodness of fit and validity study of the Korean radiological technologists' core job competency model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Chang Seon [Dept. of Radiological Science, Konyang University College of Medical Sciences, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Cho, A Ra [Dept. of Medical Education, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hur, Yera [Dept. of Medical Education, Konyang University College of Medicine, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Seong Youl [Dept. of Occupational Therapy, Kwangju women’s University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    Radiological Technologists deals with the life of a person which means professional competency is essential for the job. Nevertheless, there have been no studies in Korea that identified the job competence of radiologists. In order to define the core job competencies of Korean radiologists and to present the factor models, 147 questionnaires on job competency of radiology were analyzed using 'PASW Statistics Version 18.0' and 'AMOS Version 18.0'. The valid model consisted of five core job competencies ('Patient management', 'Health and safety', 'Operation of equipment', 'Procedures and management') and 17 sub – competencies. As a result of the factor analysis, the RMSEA value was 0.1 and the CFI, and TLI values were close to 0.9 in the measurement model of the five core job competencies. The validity analysis showed that the mean variance extraction was 0.5 or more and the conceptual reliability value was 0.7 or more , And there was a high correlation between subordinate competencies included in each subordinate competencies. The results of this study are expected to provide specific information necessary for the training and management of human resources centered on competence by clearly showing the job competence required for radiologists in Korea's health environment.

  20. Atmospheric Propagation Modeling Indicates Homing Pigeons use Loft-Specific Infrasonic 'Map' Cues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagstrum, J. T.; Baker, L. M.; Spritzer, J. M.; McKenna, M. H.

    2011-12-01

    Pigeons (Columba livia) released at distant sites commonly depart in directions significantly off the actual homeward bearing. Such site-dependent deviations, or biases, for birds from a given loft are generally stable over time, but can also change from hour to hour, day to day, and year to year. At some release sites, birds consistently vanish in random directions and have longer flight times and lower return rates. Release sites characterized by frequent disorientation are not uncommon for pigeon lofts in both Europe and the USA. One such site is the Jersey Hill fire tower in upstate New York located ~120 km W of the Cornell loft in Ithaca. Cornell birds released at Jersey Hill between 1968 and 1987 almost always vanished randomly, although birds from other lofts had little difficulty orienting there. The results for one day, however, stand out: on August 13, 1969, Cornell birds released at Jersey Hill vanished consistently to the NE (r = 0.921; n=7) and returned home after normal flight times. Cornell pigeons released the next day again showed 'normal' behavior for the site and departed randomly. If, in fact, the birds are using acoustic cues to navigate, the long-term acoustic 'dead' zone we propose for Jersey Hill, due to prevailing atmospheric conditions, indicates that the cues are coming from a single, relatively restricted area, most likely surrounding the home loft. We have modeled the transmission of infrasonic waves, presumably coupled to the atmosphere from ocean-generated microseisms (0.14 Hz), between the Cornell loft and a number of release sites using HARPA (Hamiltonian Acoustic Ray-tracing Program for the Atmosphere) and rawinsonde data collected near Albany and Buffalo, NY. The HARPA modeling shows that acoustic signals from the Cornell loft reached Jersey Hill only on a few release days with unusual atmospheric conditions, including August 13, and were launched at angles less than ~2° above horizontal, most likely from steep-sided terrain in

  1. A theoretical model of the relationship between the h-index and other simple citation indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertoli-Barsotti, Lucio; Lando, Tommaso

    2017-01-01

    Of the existing theoretical formulas for the h -index, those recently suggested by Burrell (J Informetr 7:774-783, 2013b) and by Bertoli-Barsotti and Lando (J Informetr 9(4):762-776, 2015) have proved very effective in estimating the actual value of the h -index Hirsch (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:16569-16572, 2005), at least at the level of the individual scientist. These approaches lead (or may lead) to two slightly different formulas, being based, respectively, on a "standard" and a "shifted" version of the geometric distribution. In this paper, we review the genesis of these two formulas-which we shall call the "basic" and "improved" Lambert- W formula for the h -index-and compare their effectiveness with that of a number of instances taken from the well-known Glänzel-Schubert class of models for the h -index (based, instead, on a Paretian model) by means of an empirical study. All the formulas considered in the comparison are "ready-to-use", i.e., functions of simple citation indicators such as: the total number of publications; the total number of citations; the total number of cited paper; the number of citations of the most cited paper. The empirical study is based on citation data obtained from two different sets of journals belonging to two different scientific fields: more specifically, 231 journals from the area of "Statistics and Mathematical Methods" and 100 journals from the area of "Economics, Econometrics and Finance", totaling almost 100,000 and 20,000 publications, respectively. The citation data refer to different publication/citation time windows, different types of "citable" documents, and alternative approaches to the analysis of the citation process ("prospective" and "retrospective"). We conclude that, especially in its improved version, the Lambert- W formula for the h -index provides a quite robust and effective ready-to-use rule that should be preferred to other known formulas if one's goal is (simply) to derive a reliable estimate of

  2. Low Tree-Growth Elasticity of Forest Biomass Indicated by an Individual-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robbie A. Hember

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental conditions and silviculture fundamentally alter the metabolism of individual trees and, therefore, need to be studied at that scale. However, changes in forest biomass density (Mg C ha−1 may be decoupled from changes in growth (kg C year−1 when the latter also accelerates the life cycle of trees and strains access to light, nutrients, and water. In this study, we refer to an individual-based model of forest biomass dynamics to constrain the magnitude of system feedbacks associated with ontogeny and competition and estimate the scaling relationship between changes in tree growth and forest biomass density. The model was driven by fitted equations of annual aboveground biomass growth (Gag, probability of recruitment (Pr, and probability of mortality (Pm parameterized against field observations of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill. BSP, interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Beissn. Franco, and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf. Sarg.. A hypothetical positive step-change in mean tree growth was imposed half way through the simulations and landscape-scale responses were then evaluated by comparing pre- and post-stimulus periods. Imposing a 100% increase in tree growth above calibrated predictions (i.e., contemporary rates only translated into 36% to 41% increases in forest biomass density. This corresponded with a tree-growth elasticity of forest biomass (εG,SB ranging from 0.33 to 0.55. The inelastic nature of stand biomass density was attributed to the dependence of mortality on intensity of competition and tree size, which decreased stand density by 353 to 495 trees ha−1, and decreased biomass residence time by 10 to 23 years. Values of εG,SB depended on the magnitude of the stimulus. For example, a retrospective scenario in which tree growth increased from 50% below contemporary rates up to contemporary rates indicated values of εG,SB ranging from 0.66 to 0.75. We conclude that: (1 effects of

  3. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model of internal barriers to drug treatment in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Chang; Kelly, Brian C; Liao, Yanhui; He, Haoyu; Luo, Tao; Deng, Huiqiong; Liu, Tieqiao; Hao, Wei; Wang, Jichuan

    2015-03-01

    Although evidence exists for distinct barriers to drug abuse treatment (BDATs), investigations of their inter-relationships and the effect of individual characteristics on the barrier factors have been sparse, especially in China. A Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model is applied for this target. A sample of 262 drug users were recruited from three drug rehabilitation centers in Hunan Province, China. We applied a MIMIC approach to investigate the effect of gender, age, marital status, education, primary substance use, duration of primary drug use, and drug treatment experience on the internal barrier factors: absence of problem (AP), negative social support (NSS), fear of treatment (FT), and privacy concerns (PC). Drug users of various characteristics were found to report different internal barrier factors. Younger participants were more likely to report NSS (-0.19, p=0.038) and PC (-0.31, p<0.001). Compared to other drug users, ice users were more likely to report AP (0.44, p<0.001) and NSS (0.25, p=0.010). Drug treatment experiences related to AP (0.20, p=0.012). In addition, differential item functioning (DIF) occurred in three items when participant from groups with different duration of drug use, ice use, or marital status. Individual characteristics had significant effects on internal barriers to drug treatment. On this basis, BDAT perceived by different individuals could be assessed before tactics were utilized to successfully remove perceived barriers to drug treatment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Good practices in health care "management experimentation models": insights from an international public-private partnership on transplantation and advanced specialized therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Maria Cristina

    2015-01-01

    The research analyzes good practices in health care "management experimentation models," which fall within the broader range of the integrative public-private partnerships (PPPs). Introduced by the Italian National Healthcare System in 1991, the "management experimentation models" are based on a public governance system mixed with a private management approach, a patient-centric orientation, a shared financial risk, and payment mechanisms correlated with clinical outcomes, quality, and cost-savings. This model makes public hospitals more competitive and efficient without affecting the principles of universal coverage, solidarity, and equity of access, but requires higher financial responsibility for managers and more flexibility in operations. In Italy the experience of such experimental models is limited but successful. The study adopts the case study methodology and refers to the international collaboration started in 1997 between two Italian hospitals and the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC - Pennsylvania, USA) in the field of organ transplants and biomedical advanced therapies. The research allows identifying what constitutes good management practices and factors associated with higher clinical performance. Thus, it allows to understand whether and how the management experimentation model can be implemented on a broader basis, both nationwide and internationally. However, the implementation of integrative PPPs requires strategic, cultural, and managerial changes in the way in which a hospital operates; these transformations are not always sustainable. The recognition of ISMETT's good management practices is useful for competitive benchmarking among hospitals specialized in organ transplants and for its insights on the strategies concerning the governance reorganization in the hospital setting. Findings can be used in the future for analyzing the cross-country differences in productivity among well-managed public hospitals.

  5. Performance Investigation of a Handheld 3d Scanner to Define Good Practices for Small Artefact 3d Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachat, E.; Landes, T.; Grussenmeyer, P.

    2017-08-01

    Handheld 3D scanners can be used to complete large scale models with the acquisition of occluded areas or small artefacts. This may be of interest for digitization projects in the field of Cultural Heritage, where detailed areas may require a specific treatment. Such sensors present the advantage of being easily portable in the field, and easily usable even without particular knowledge. In this paper, the Freestyle3D handheld scanner launched on the market in 2015 by FARO is investigated. Different experiments are described, covering various topics such as the influence of range or color on the measurements, but also the precision achieved for geometrical primitive digitization. These laboratory experiments are completed by acquisitions performed on engraved and sculpted stone blocks. This practical case study is useful to investigate which acquisition protocol seems to be the more adapted and leads to precise results. The produced point clouds will be compared to photogrammetric surveys for the purpose of their accuracy assessment.

  6. Individual differences and the characterization of animal models of psychopathology: a strong challenge and a good opportunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armario, Antonio; Nadal, Roser

    2013-01-01

    Despite the development of valuable new techniques (i.e., genetics, neuroimage) for the study of the neurobiological substrate of psychiatric diseases, there are strong limitations in the information that can be gathered from human studies. It is thus critical to develop appropriate animal models of psychiatric diseases to characterize their putative biological bases and the development of new therapeutic strategies. The present review tries to offer a general perspective and several examples of how individual differences in animals can contribute to explain differential susceptibility to develop behavioral alterations, but also emphasizes methodological problems that can lead to inappropriate or over-simplistic interpretations. A critical analysis of the approaches currently used could contribute to obtain more reliable data and allow taking full advantage of new and sophisticated technologies. The discussion is mainly focused on anxiety-like and to a lower extent on depression-like behavior in rodents.

  7. Are Sema5a mutant mice a good model of autism? A behavioral analysis of sensory systems, emotionality and cognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunn, Rhian K.; Huentelman, Matthew J.; Brown, Richard E.

    2011-01-01

    Semaphorin 5A (Sema5A) expression is reduced in the brain of individuals with autism, thus mice with reduced Sema5A levels may serve as a model of this neurodevelopmental disorder. We tested male and female Sema5a knockout mice (B6.129P2SEMA5A/J) and C57BL/6J controls for emotionality, visual ability, prepulse inhibition, motor learning and cognition. Overall, there were only two genotype differences in emotionality: Sema5a mutant mice had more stretch-attend postures in the elevated plus-maze and more defecations in the open field. All mice could see, but Sema5a mice had better visual ability than C57BL/6J mice. There were no genotype differences in sensory-motor gating. Sema5a mice showed higher levels of activity in the elevated plus-maze and light/dark transition box, and there were sex by genotype differences in the Rotarod, suggesting a sex difference in balance and coordination differentially affected by Sema5a. There were no genotype effects on cognition: Sema5a mice did not differ from C57BL/6J in the Morris water maze, set-shifting or cued and contextual fear conditioning. In the social recognition test, all mice preferred social stimuli, but there was no preference for social novelty, thus the Sema5A mice do not have a deficit in social behavior. Overall, there were a number of sex differences, with females showing greater activity and males performing better in tests of spatial learning and memory, but no deficits in the behavior of Sema5A mice. We conclude that the Sema5a mice do not meet the behavioral criteria for a mouse model of autism. PMID:21777623

  8. A Structural Model Proposal for Turkish Faculties of Education Regarding ICT Integration Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbulut, Yavuz

    2010-01-01

    A recent survey study with 2515 pre-service teachers suggested an underlying structure to shelter ICT integration indicators. Eleven indicators were extracted, which were Teaching-Learning Methods, E-learning, E-interaction, Learning Communities, Infrastructure, Access, Ease of Use, Technical Assistance, Policy, Special Education and Health. In…

  9. Developing and Optimising the Use of Logic Models in Systematic Reviews: Exploring Practice and Good Practice in the Use of Programme Theory in Reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneale, Dylan; Thomas, James; Harris, Katherine

    2015-01-01

    Logic models are becoming an increasingly common feature of systematic reviews, as is the use of programme theory more generally in systematic reviewing. Logic models offer a framework to help reviewers to 'think' conceptually at various points during the review, and can be a useful tool in defining study inclusion and exclusion criteria, guiding the search strategy, identifying relevant outcomes, identifying mediating and moderating factors, and communicating review findings. In this paper we critique the use of logic models in systematic reviews and protocols drawn from two databases representing reviews of health interventions and international development interventions. Programme theory featured only in a minority of the reviews and protocols included. Despite drawing from different disciplinary traditions, reviews and protocols from both sources shared several limitations in their use of logic models and theories of change, and these were used almost unanimously to solely depict pictorially the way in which the intervention worked. Logic models and theories of change were consequently rarely used to communicate the findings of the review. Logic models have the potential to be an aid integral throughout the systematic reviewing process. The absence of good practice around their use and development may be one reason for the apparent limited utility of logic models in many existing systematic reviews. These concerns are addressed in the second half of this paper, where we offer a set of principles in the use of logic models and an example of how we constructed a logic model for a review of school-based asthma interventions.

  10. Sensitivity analysis in oxidation ditch modelling: the effect of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abusam, A.A.A.; Keesman, K.J.; Straten, van G.; Spanjers, H.; Meinema, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the application of the factorial sensitivity analysis methodology in studying the influence of variations in stoichiometric, kinetic and operating parameters on the performance indices of an oxidation ditch simulation model (benchmark). Factorial sensitivity analysis

  11. Toward a Progress Indicator for Machine Learning Model Building and Data Mining Algorithm Execution: A Position Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Gang

    2017-01-01

    For user-friendliness, many software systems offer progress indicators for long-duration tasks. A typical progress indicator continuously estimates the remaining task execution time as well as the portion of the task that has been finished. Building a machine learning model often takes a long time, but no existing machine learning software supplies a non-trivial progress indicator. Similarly, running a data mining algorithm often takes a long time, but no existing data mining software provides a nontrivial progress indicator. In this article, we consider the problem of offering progress indicators for machine learning model building and data mining algorithm execution. We discuss the goals and challenges intrinsic to this problem. Then we describe an initial framework for implementing such progress indicators and two advanced, potential uses of them, with the goal of inspiring future research on this topic. PMID:29177022

  12. Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Ping; Song, Heda; Wang, Hong; Chai, Tianyou

    2017-09-01

    Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improve modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  13. Analysis of risk indicators and issues associated with applications of screening model for hazardous and radioactive waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buck, J.W.; Strenge, D.L.; Droppo, J.G. Jr.

    1990-12-01

    Risk indicators, such as population risk, maximum individual risk, time of arrival of contamination, and maximum water concentrations, were analyzed to determine their effect on results from a screening model for hazardous and radioactive waste sites. The analysis of risk indicators is based on calculations resulting from exposure to air and waterborne contamination predicted with Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) model. The different risk indicators were analyzed, based on constituent type and transport and exposure pathways. Three of the specific comparisons that were made are (1) population-based versus maximum individual-based risk indicators, (2) time of arrival of contamination, and (3) comparison of different threshold assumptions for noncarcinogenic impacts. Comparison of indicators for population- and maximum individual-based human health risk suggests that these two parameters are highly correlated, but for a given problem, one may be more important than the other. The results indicate that the arrival distribution for different levels of contamination reaching a receptor can also be helpful in decisions regarding the use of resources for remediating short- and long-term environmental problems. The addition of information from a linear model for noncarcinogenic impacts allows interpretation of results below the reference dose (RfD) levels that might help in decisions for certain applications. The analysis of risk indicators suggests that important information may be lost by the use of a single indicator to represent public health risk and that multiple indicators should be considered. 15 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  14. Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil Using Probabilistic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira

    Full Text Available We examine the usefulness of various financial and real sector variables to forecast recessions in Brazil between one and eight quarters ahead. We estimate probabilistic models of recession and select models based on their outof-sample forecasts, using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC function. We find that the predictive out-of-sample ability of several models vary depending on the numbers of quarters ahead to forecast and on the number of regressors used in the model specification. The models selected seem to be relevant to give early warnings of recessions in Brazil.

  15. Laboratory infrastructure driven key performance indicator development using the smart grid architecture model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Syed, Mazheruddin H.; Guillo-Sansano, Efren; Blair, Steven M.

    2017-01-01

    This study presents a methodology for collaboratively designing laboratory experiments and developing key performance indicators for the testing and validation of novel power system control architectures in multiple laboratory environments. The contribution makes use of the smart grid architecture...

  16. Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigatu Tilahun H

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

  17. HOW GOOD IS GOODS AND SERVICES TAX

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Sreemoyee Guha Roy

    2016-01-01

    Goods and Services Tax is a broad based and a single comprehensive tax levied on goods and services consumed in an economy. GST is levied at every stage of the production-distribution chain with applicable set offs in respect of the tax remitted at previous stages. It is basically a tax on final consumption. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) is a value added tax to be implemented in India, the decision on which is pending. GST is the only indirect tax that directly affects all sectors and sect...

  18. The Hierarchical Trend Model for property valuation and local price indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Francke, M.K.; Vos, G.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends,

  19. Development of a Predictive Corrosion Model Using Locality-Specific Corrosion Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-12

    components, and method) were compiled into an executable program that uses mathematical models of materials degradation, and statistical calcula- tions...The primary metric used to validate the model was statistical analysis of its application to specific geospatial locations, comparing the severity...6 3.2.1 Statistical data analysis methods

  20. Integration of Tidal Prism Model and HSPF for simulating indicator bacteria in coastal watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Rose S.; Rifai, Hanadi S.; Petersen, Christina M.

    2017-09-01

    Coastal water quality is strongly influenced by tidal fluctuations and water chemistry. There is a need for rigorous models that are not computationally or economically prohibitive, but still allow simulation of the hydrodynamics and bacteria sources for coastal, tidally influenced streams and bayous. This paper presents a modeling approach that links a Tidal Prism Model (TPM) implemented in an Excel-based modeling environment with a watershed runoff model (Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN, HSPF) for such watersheds. The TPM is a one-dimensional mass balance approach that accounts for loading from tidal exchange, runoff, point sources and bacteria die-off at an hourly time step resolution. The novel use of equal high-resolution time steps in this study allowed seamless integration of the TPM and HSPF. The linked model was calibrated to flow and E. Coli data (for HSPF), and salinity and enterococci data (for the TPM) for a coastal stream in Texas. Sensitivity analyses showed the TPM to be most influenced by changes in net decay rates followed by tidal and runoff loads, respectively. Management scenarios were evaluated with the developed linked models to assess the impact of runoff load reductions and improved wastewater treatment plant quality and to determine the areas of critical need for such reductions. Achieving water quality standards for bacteria required load reductions that ranged from zero to 90% for the modeled coastal stream.

  1. Modification indices for the 2-pl and the nominal response model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, it is shown that various violations of the 2-PL model and the nominal response model can be evaluated using the Lagrange multiplier test or the equivalent efficient score test. The tests presented here focus on violation of local stochastic independence and insufficient capture of the

  2. Bioenergy good practice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birse, J.; Chambers, K.

    2000-07-01

    This report gives details of a project to make the Good Practice Guidelines, which were developed to help the UK Bioenergy industry, the national and local governments, and the public, more widely available. Details concerning the designing of a Good Practice Programme, and the proposed codes of Good Practice programme are given, and general relevant good practice guidance documents are discussed. The stakeholder survey and workshop, and the proposed codes of a Good Practice Programme are presented in Annexes. (UK)

  3. An Approach for Automatically Deriving Key Performance Indicators from Ontological Enterprise Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aksu, U.A.; Schunselaar, D.M.M.; Reijers, H.A.

    2017-01-01

    Organizations use Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to monitor whether they attain their goals. Software vendors that supply generic software provide predefined KPIs in their software products for these organizations. However, each organization wants KPIs to be tailored to its specific goals.Th

  4. Incidence of social phobia and identification of its risk indicators: A model for prevention.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acarturk, C.; Smit, H.F.E.; Graaf, de R.; Straten, van A.; Have, M. ten; Cuijpers, P.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: This study seeks to examine the incidence of social phobia in the general population and to establish a number of risk indicators. Method: Data were derived from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) which is a population based prospective study (n = 7076). A

  5. Is Forced Swimming Immobility a Good Endpoint for Modeling Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia? - Study of Sub-Anesthetic Ketamine Repeated Administration Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GILDA NEVES

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Immobility time in the forced swimming has been described as analogous to emotional blunting or apathy and has been used for characterizing schizophrenia animal models. Several clinical studies support the use of NMDA receptor antagonists to model schizophrenia in rodents. Some works describe the effects of ketamine on immobility behavior but there is variability in the experimental design used leading to controversial results. In this study, we evaluated the effects of repeated administration of ketamine sub-anesthetic doses in forced swimming, locomotion in response to novelty and novel object recognition, aiming a broader evaluation of the usefulness of this experimental approach for modeling schizophrenia in mice. Ketamine (30 mg/kg/day i.p. for 14 days induced a not persistent decrease in immobility time, detected 24h but not 72h after treatment. This same administration protocol induced a deficit in novel object recognition. No change was observed in mice locomotion. Our results confirm that repeated administration of sub-anesthetic doses of ketamine is useful in modeling schizophrenia-related behavioral changes in mice. However, the immobility time during forced swimming does not seem to be a good endpoint to evaluate the modeling of negative symptoms in NMDAR antagonist animal models of schizophrenia.

  6. Is Forced Swimming Immobility a Good Endpoint for Modeling Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia? - Study of Sub-Anesthetic Ketamine Repeated Administration Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Gilda; Borsoi, Milene; Antonio, Camila B; Pranke, Mariana A; Betti, Andresa H; Rates, Stela M K

    2017-01-01

    Immobility time in the forced swimming has been described as analogous to emotional blunting or apathy and has been used for characterizing schizophrenia animal models. Several clinical studies support the use of NMDA receptor antagonists to model schizophrenia in rodents. Some works describe the effects of ketamine on immobility behavior but there is variability in the experimental design used leading to controversial results. In this study, we evaluated the effects of repeated administration of ketamine sub-anesthetic doses in forced swimming, locomotion in response to novelty and novel object recognition, aiming a broader evaluation of the usefulness of this experimental approach for modeling schizophrenia in mice. Ketamine (30 mg/kg/day i.p. for 14 days) induced a not persistent decrease in immobility time, detected 24h but not 72h after treatment. This same administration protocol induced a deficit in novel object recognition. No change was observed in mice locomotion. Our results confirm that repeated administration of sub-anesthetic doses of ketamine is useful in modeling schizophrenia-related behavioral changes in mice. However, the immobility time during forced swimming does not seem to be a good endpoint to evaluate the modeling of negative symptoms in NMDAR antagonist animal models of schizophrenia.

  7. Selecting Policy Indicators and Developing Simulation Models for the National School Lunch and Breakfast Programs (Summary)

    OpenAIRE

    Lisa Dragoset; Anne Gordon

    2010-01-01

    This brief describes exploratory work to develop a simulation model to predict the potential implications of changes that may be coming in policies and practices related to school meals and school food environments.

  8. Volcano and ship tracks indicate excessive aerosol-induced cloud water increases in a climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toll, Velle; Christensen, Matthew; Gassó, Santiago; Bellouin, Nicolas

    2017-12-28

    Aerosol-cloud interaction is the most uncertain mechanism of anthropogenic radiative forcing of Earth's climate, and aerosol-induced cloud water changes are particularly poorly constrained in climate models. By combining satellite retrievals of volcano and ship tracks in stratocumulus clouds, we compile a unique observational dataset and confirm that liquid water path (LWP) responses to aerosols are bidirectional, and on average the increases in LWP are closely compensated by the decreases. Moreover, the meteorological parameters controlling the LWP responses are strikingly similar between the volcano and ship tracks. In stark contrast to observations, there are substantial unidirectional increases in LWP in the Hadley Centre climate model, because the model accounts only for the decreased precipitation efficiency and not for the enhanced entrainment drying. If the LWP increases in the model were compensated by the decreases as the observations suggest, its indirect aerosol radiative forcing in stratocumulus regions would decrease by 45%.

  9. APT cost scaling: Preliminary indications from a Parametric Costing Model (PCM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    A Parametric Costing Model has been created and evaluate as a first step in quantitatively understanding important design options for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) concept. This model couples key economic and technical elements of APT in a two-parameter search of beam energy and beam power that minimizes costs within a range of operating constraints. The costing and engineering depth of the Parametric Costing Model is minimal at the present open-quotes entry levelclose quotes, and is intended only to demonstrate a potential for a more-detailed, cost-based integrating design tool. After describing the present basis of the Parametric Costing Model and giving an example of a single parametric scaling run derived therefrom, the impacts of choices related to resistive versus superconducting accelerator structures and cost of electricity versus plant availability (open-quotes load curveclose quotes) are reported. Areas of further development and application are suggested

  10. Mathematical modelling and quality indices optimization of automatic control systems of reactor facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Severin, V.P.

    2007-01-01

    The mathematical modeling of automatic control systems of reactor facility WWER-1000 with various regulator types is considered. The linear and nonlinear models of neutron power control systems of nuclear reactor WWER-1000 with various group numbers of delayed neutrons are designed. The results of optimization of direct quality indexes of neutron power control systems of nuclear reactor WWER-1000 are designed. The identification and optimization of level control systems with various regulator types of steam generator are executed

  11. Bond-based linear indices of the non-stochastic and stochastic edge-adjacency matrix. 1. Theory and modeling of ChemPhys properties of organic molecules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Martínez-Albelo, Eugenio R; Casañola-Martín, Gerardo M; Castillo-Garit, Juan A; Echevería-Díaz, Yunaimy; Zaldivar, Vicente Romero; Tygat, Jan; Borges, José E Rodriguez; García-Domenech, Ramón; Torrens, Francisco; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo

    2010-11-01

    Novel bond-level molecular descriptors are proposed, based on linear maps similar to the ones defined in algebra theory. The kth edge-adjacency matrix (E(k)) denotes the matrix of bond linear indices (non-stochastic) with regard to canonical basis set. The kth stochastic edge-adjacency matrix, ES(k), is here proposed as a new molecular representation easily calculated from E(k). Then, the kth stochastic bond linear indices are calculated using ES(k) as operators of linear transformations. In both cases, the bond-type formalism is developed. The kth non-stochastic and stochastic total linear indices are calculated by adding the kth non-stochastic and stochastic bond linear indices, respectively, of all bonds in molecule. First, the new bond-based molecular descriptors (MDs) are tested for suitability, for the QSPRs, by analyzing regressions of novel indices for selected physicochemical properties of octane isomers (first round). General performance of the new descriptors in this QSPR studies is evaluated with regard to the well-known sets of 2D/3D MDs. From the analysis, we can conclude that the non-stochastic and stochastic bond-based linear indices have an overall good modeling capability proving their usefulness in QSPR studies. Later, the novel bond-level MDs are also used for the description and prediction of the boiling point of 28 alkyl-alcohols (second round), and to the modeling of the specific rate constant (log k), partition coefficient (log P), as well as the antibacterial activity of 34 derivatives of 2-furylethylenes (third round). The comparison with other approaches (edge- and vertices-based connectivity indices, total and local spectral moments, and quantum chemical descriptors as well as E-state/biomolecular encounter parameters) exposes a good behavior of our method in this QSPR studies. Finally, the approach described in this study appears to be a very promising structural invariant, useful not only for QSPR studies but also for similarity

  12. QSTR with extended topochemical atom (ETA) indices. 16. Development of predictive classification and regression models for toxicity of ionic liquids towards Daphnia magna

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Kunal; Das, Rudra Narayan

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Ionic liquids are not intrinsically ‘green chemicals’ and require toxicological assessment. • Predictive QSTR models have been developed for toxicity of ILs to Daphnia magna. • Simple two dimensional descriptors were used to reduce the computational burden. • Discriminant and regression based models showed appreciable predictivity and reproducibility. • The extracted features can be explored in designing novel environmentally-friendly agents. -- Abstract: Ionic liquids have been judged much with respect to their wide applicability than their considerable harmful effects towards the living ecosystem which has been observed in many instances. Hence, toxicological introspection of these chemicals by the development of predictive mathematical models can be of good help. This study presents an attempt to develop predictive classification and regression models correlating the structurally derived chemical information of a group of 62 diverse ionic liquids with their toxicity towards Daphnia magna and their interpretation. We have principally used the extended topochemical atom (ETA) indices along with various topological non-ETA and thermodynamic parameters as independent variables. The developed quantitative models have been subjected to extensive statistical tests employing multiple validation strategies from which acceptable results have been reported. The best models obtained from classification and regression studies captured necessary structural information on lipophilicity, branching pattern, electronegativity and chain length of the cationic substituents for explaining ecotoxicity of ionic liquids towards D. magna. The derived information can be successfully used to design better ionic liquid analogues acquiring the qualities of a true eco-friendly green chemical

  13. Performance indicators for the dynamics modeling and control of PEMFC systems

    OpenAIRE

    Husar, Attila Peter

    2012-01-01

    Tesi per compendi de publicacions Society is gradually becoming aware that the current energy industry, based on the use of fossil fuels, is inefficient, highly polluting and has a finite supply. Within the scientific community, there are indications that hydrogen (H2) as an energy vector, obtained from renewable energy sources, can represent a viable option to mitigate the problems associated with hydrocarbon combustion. In this context, the change from the current energy i...

  14. Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate Model Simulations and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    associated with the ice - albedo feedback and the seasonal melt and growth of sea ice , as well as horizontal climate variations on a global domain. (2...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate...possibility that the climate system supports multiple Arctic sea ice states that are relevant for the evolution of sea ice during the next several

  15. Asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices using index-based model of A-MFDFA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Minhyuk; Song, Jae Wook; Park, Ji Hwan; Chang, Woojin

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • ‘Index-based A-MFDFA’ model is proposed to assess the asymmetric multi-fractality. • The asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices are investigated using ‘Index-based’ and ‘Return-based’ A-MFDFA. • The asymmetric feature is more significantly identified by ‘Index-based’ model than ‘return-based’ model. • Source of multi-fractality and time-varying features are analyzed. - Abstract: We detect the asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices based on the asymmetric multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MFDFA). Instead using the conventional return-based approach, we propose the index-based model of A-MFDFA where the trend based on the evolution of stock index rather than stock price return plays a role for evaluating the asymmetric scaling behaviors. The results show that the multi-fractal behaviors of the U.S. stock indices are asymmetric and the index-based model detects the asymmetric multi-fractality better than return-based model. We also discuss the source of multi-fractality and its asymmetry and observe that the multi-fractal asymmetry in the U.S. stock indices has a time-varying feature where the degree of multi-fractality and asymmetry increase during the financial crisis.

  16. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information (www.geo.uio.no/edc/droughtdb/). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

  17. Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban....... In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

  18. Shelf-life modeling of bakery products by using oxidation indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calligaris, Sonia; Manzocco, Lara; Kravina, Giuditta; Nicoli, Maria Cristina

    2007-03-07

    The aim of this work was to develop a shelf-life prediction model of lipid-containing bakery products. To this purpose (i) the temperature dependence of the oxidation rate of bakery products was modeled, taking into account the changes in lipid physical state; (ii) the acceptance limits were assessed by sensory analysis; and (iii) the relationship between chemical oxidation index and acceptance limit was evaluated. Results highlight that the peroxide number, the changes of which are linearly related to consumer acceptability, is a representative index of the quality depletion of biscuits during their shelf life. In addition, the evolution of peroxides can be predicted by a modified Arrhenius equation accounting for the changes in the physical state of biscuit fat. Knowledge of the relationship between peroxides and sensory acceptability together with the temperature dependence of peroxide formation allows a mathematical model to be set up to simply and quickly calculate the shelf life of biscuits.

  19. Mathematical Modeling in the People's Republic of China--Indicators of Participation and Performance on COMAP's Modeling Contest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xiaoxi

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Mainland Chinese teams have been the dominant participants in the two COMAP-sponsored mathematical modeling competitions: the Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) and the Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling (ICM). This study examines five factors that lead to the Chinese teams' dramatic increase in participation rate and…

  20. QSTR with extended topochemical atom (ETA) indices. 14. QSAR modeling of toxicity of aromatic aldehydes to Tetrahymena pyriformis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy, Kunal, E-mail: kunalroy_in@yahoo.com [Drug Theoretics and Cheminformatics Laboratory, Division of Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Department of Pharmaceutical Technology, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700 032 (India); Das, Rudra Narayan [Drug Theoretics and Cheminformatics Laboratory, Division of Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Department of Pharmaceutical Technology, Jadavpur University, Kolkata 700 032 (India)

    2010-11-15

    Aldehydes are a toxic class of chemicals causing severe health hazards. In this background, quantitative structure-toxicity relationship (QSTR) models have been developed in the present study using Extended Topochemical Atom (ETA) indices for a large group of 77 aromatic aldehydes for their acute toxicity against the protozoan ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis. The ETA models have been compared with those developed using various non-ETA topological indices. Attempt was also made to include the n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log K{sub o/w}) as an additional descriptor considering the importance of hydrophobicity in toxicity prediction. Thirty different models were developed using different chemometric tools. All the models have been validated using internal validation and external validation techniques. The statistical quality of the ETA models was found to be comparable to that of the non-ETA models. The ETA models have shown the important effects of steric bulk, lipophilicity, presence of electronegative atom containing substituents and functionality of the aldehydic oxygen to the toxicity of the aldehydes. The best ETA model (without using log K{sub o/w}) shows encouraging statistical quality (Q{sub int}{sup 2}=0.709,Q{sub ext}{sup 2}=0.744). It is interesting to note that some of the topological models reported here are better in statistical quality than previously reported models using quantum chemical descriptors.

  1. Software licenses: Good fences make good neighbors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCreary, J.G.; Woodyard, A.

    1995-01-01

    The basis for a good contract is that it is beneficial to both parties. A good foundation will cement the responsibilities and obligations of the parties after areas of agreement have been negotiated. Unfortunately, software licenses do not always reflect what is best for all. Some clauses are definitely for the benefit of the vendor, while others are required by a prudent client. The resulting contract is then a matter of reasonable compromise to achieve a good business relationship. Major issues of warranty, liability, training, support, and payment may be in conflict. Such topics as maintenance, testing, patents, extent of use, and return of software are often overlooked or addressed unevenly. This paper addresses these subjects and provides guidelines for software licenses. An understanding of legal phrases is of value. A better understanding of the viewpoints of both the vendor and the client results in a better working relationship

  2. Designing an integrated model based on the indicators Quality and Earned Value for risk management in Information Technology Projects

    OpenAIRE

    TATLARI, Mohammad Reza; KAZEMİPOOR, Hamed

    2015-01-01

    There are two effective factors on Information Technology (IT) projects risk including quality and earned value so that by controlling these two factors and their increased level in IT projects, the corresponding risk can be decreased. Therefore in present study, an integrated model was designed based on quality and earned value indicators for risk management in IT projects on a new and efficient approach. The proposed algorithm included the steps such as preparing a list of several indicator...

  3. Comparison and evaluation of indicator dilution models for bolus of ultrasound contrast agents

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Harabis, V.; Kolář, R.; Mézl, M.; Jiřík, Radovan

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 2 (2013), s. 151-162 ISSN 0967-3334 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP102/12/2380 Institutional support: RVO:68081731 Keywords : perfusion model * ultrasound * contrast agent * intravascular perfusion * tissue phantom Subject RIV: FS - Medical Facilities ; Equipment Impact factor: 1.617, year: 2013

  4. Theory of Compliance: Indicator Checklist Statistical Model and Instrument Based Program Monitoring Information System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiene, Richard J.; Woods, Lawrence

    Two unanswered questions about child care are: (1) Does compliance with state child care regulations have a positive impact on children? and (2) Have predictors of program quality been identified? This paper explores a research study and related model that have had some success in answering these questions. Section I, a general introduction,…

  5. CONSUMER BEHAVIOR AND ENTERPRISE AGILITY – A MODEL OF THE SURVEYED INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOIER Rodica

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Enhancing the agility of the response to market demands is one of the most desirable qualities for the management of today’s enterprise, which is facing an unstable environment, with abrupt, frequent and unpredictable changes. The paper proposes a model o

  6. Evaluation of empowerment model on indicators of metabolic control in patients with type 2 diabetes, a randomized clinical trial study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Hossein; Sadeghi, Mahdi; Amanpour, Farzaneh; Vahedi, Hamid

    2016-04-01

    Diabetes education is a major subject in achieving optimal glycemic control. Effective empowerment approach can be beneficial for improving patients' health. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of empowerment model on indicators of metabolic control in patients with type 2 diabetes. a randomized controlled trial of 103 patients with type 2 diabetes were randomly assigned to either the intervention (empowerment approach training) or the control group (conventional training) 2014. Empowerment approach training were performed for the experimental group for eight weeks. Data collection tool included demographic information form and indicators of metabolic control checklist. Analysis was performed by one-way analysis of variance, chi-square test, paired t-test, independent t-test and multiple linear regression. Before the intervention, two groups were homogeneous in terms of demographic variables, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1C), and other indicators of metabolic control. After the intervention, average HbA1C and other metabolic indicators except for LDL showed significant differences in the experimental group compared to the control group. study results indicated the positive effects of applying the empowerment model on the metabolic control indicators. Therefore, applying this model is recommended to nurses and the relevant authorities in order to improve clinical outcomes in diabetic patients. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Mathematical and Economic Modeling of the Results of Correlation Between Indicators of Profitability and Asset Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silviu CÂRSTINA

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Activity companies, regardless of sector, aims to both keep a favorable position in the market and creating financial resources to respond favorably people interact undertaking. These considerations are actually provided by the existence and sustainability of any business activity. Through this paper we follow not only the level of profitability of businesses related to food industry sector in Dolj, Romania, but also the correlation between the indicators of profitability and management of assets. The period of analysis is given by the range of 2012 - 2013, and of data analysis in terms of economic and mathematical being done using SPSS statistical and mathematical software.

  8. The integration of bioclimatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticulture suitability in a region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral García, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo

    2014-05-01

    Different bioclimatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this work we propose using the information obtained from 10 bioclimatic indices and variables (heliothermal index, HI, cool night index, CI, dryness index, DI, growing season temperature, GST, the Winkler index, WI, September mean thermal amplitude, MTA, annual precipitation, AP, precipitation during flowering, PDF, precipitation before flowering, PBF, and summer precipitation, SP) as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main bioclimatic indices which could influence on wine suitability, and utilize the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the bioclimatic indices or variables which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural suitability potential in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southewestern Spain, is shown. Keywords: Rasch model, bioclimatic indices, GIS.

  9. Performance indicators in bsc management model: an investigation into the wineries in Rio Grande do Sul (gaúcha region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Josende Paz

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This segment of the wine industry is booming in the Campaign region in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, and based on this fact, managers need more and more tools to assist them in the management process. One of the main tools in this process is the Balanced Scorecard, which uses performance indicators in different aspects of the company as a way to evaluate it. The research aims to investigate the use of performance indicators in the BSC management model, the wineries of the ‘gaúcha’Campaign region. For this purpose, d, an exploratory and descriptive study of a quantitative and qualitative character was developed, revealing that these wineries use, in large part, indicators of the financial perspective of the business, leaving aside other important aspects and perspectives. Further, it was found that the quality of management does not depend on the number of indicators used, but the correct use of those indicators.

  10. Mathematical model of combined parametrical analysis of indicator process and thermal loading on the Diesel engine piston

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lebedeva

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available In the publication the methodical aspects of a mathematical model of the combined parametrical analysis of an indicator process and thermal loading on the diesel engine piston have been considered. A thermodynamic model of a diesel engine cycle is developed. The executed development is intended for use during researches and on the initial stages of design work. Its realization for high revolution diesel engines of perspective type CHN15/15 allowed to choose rational variants for the organization of an indicator process and to prove power ranges of application for not cooled and created cooled oil welded pistons.

  11. Building Analysis for Urban Energy Planning Using Key Indicators on Virtual 3d City Models - the Energy Atlas of Berlin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, A.; Kolbe, T. H.

    2012-07-01

    In the context of increasing greenhouse gas emission and global demographic change with the simultaneous trend to urbanization, it is a big challenge for cities around the world to perform modifications in energy supply chain and building characteristics resulting in reduced energy consumption and carbon dioxide mitigation. Sound knowledge of energy resource demand and supply including its spatial distribution within urban areas is of great importance for planning strategies addressing greater energy efficiency. The understanding of the city as a complex energy system affects several areas of the urban living, e.g. energy supply, urban texture, human lifestyle, and climate protection. With the growing availability of 3D city models around the world based on the standard language and format CityGML, energy system modelling, analysis and simulation can be incorporated into these models. Both domains will profit from that interaction by bringing together official and accurate building models including building geometries, semantics and locations forming a realistic image of the urban structure with systemic energy simulation models. A holistic view on the impacts of energy planning scenarios can be modelled and analyzed including side effects on urban texture and human lifestyle. This paper focuses on the identification, classification, and integration of energy-related key indicators of buildings and neighbourhoods within 3D building models. Consequent application of 3D city models conforming to CityGML serves the purpose of deriving indicators for this topic. These will be set into the context of urban energy planning within the Energy Atlas Berlin. The generation of indicator objects covering the indicator values and related processing information will be presented on the sample scenario estimation of heating energy consumption in buildings and neighbourhoods. In their entirety the key indicators will form an adequate image of the local energy situation for

  12. Trade in goods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Karsten Engsig

    2006-01-01

    An analysis of the rules governing trade in goods under the GATT agreement and the Agreement on Safeguards......An analysis of the rules governing trade in goods under the GATT agreement and the Agreement on Safeguards...

  13. A Model for Good Governance of Healthcare Technology Management in the Public Sector: Learning from Evidence-Informed Policy Development and Implementation in Benin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Th Houngbo

    Full Text Available Good governance (GG is an important concept that has evolved as a set of normative principles for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs to strengthen the functional capacity of their public bodies, and as a conditional prerequisite to receive donor funding. Although much is written on good governance, very little is known on how to implement it. This paper documents the process of developing a strategy to implement a GG model for Health Technology Management (HTM in the public health sector, based on lessons learned from twenty years of experience in policy development and implementation in Benin. The model comprises six phases: (i preparatory analysis, assessing the effects of previous policies and characterizing the HTM system; (ii stakeholder identification and problem analysis, making explicit the perceptions of problems by a diverse range of actors, and assessing their ability to solve these problems; (iii shared analysis and visioning, delineating the root causes of problems and hypothesizing solutions; (iv development of policy instruments for pilot testing, based on quick-win solutions to understand the system's responses to change; (v policy development and validation, translating the consensus solutions identified by stakeholders into a policy; and (vi policy implementation and evaluation, implementing the policy through a cycle of planning, action, observation and reflection. The policy development process can be characterized as bottom-up, with a central focus on the participation of diverse stakeholders groups. Interactive and analytical tools of action research were used to integrate knowledge amongst actor groups, identify consensus solutions and develop the policy in a way that satisfies criteria of GG. This model could be useful for other LMICs where resources are constrained and the majority of healthcare technologies are imported.

  14. Science dynamics and research production indicators, indexes, statistical laws and mathematical models

    CERN Document Server

    Vitanov, Nikolay K

    2016-01-01

    This book deals with methods to evaluate scientific productivity. In the book statistical methods, deterministic and stochastic models and numerous indexes are discussed that will help the reader to understand the nonlinear science dynamics and to be able to develop or construct systems for appropriate evaluation of research productivity and management of research groups and organizations. The dynamics of science structures and systems is complex, and the evaluation of research productivity requires a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and measures. The book has three parts. The first part is devoted to mathematical models describing the importance of science for economic growth and systems for the evaluation of research organizations of different size. The second part contains descriptions and discussions of numerous indexes for the evaluation of the productivity of researchers and groups of researchers of different size (up to the comparison of research productivities of research communiti...

  15. Lower radiation weighting factor for radon indicated in mechanistic modelling of human lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brugmans, M.J.P.; Leenhouts, H.P.

    2002-01-01

    A two-mutation carcinogenesis (TMC) model was fitted to the age-dependent lung cancer incidence in a cohort of Dutch Hodgkin patients treated with radiotherapy. Employing the results of previous TMC analyses of lung cancer due to smoking (by British doctors) and due to exposure to radon (for Colorado miners) a model fit was obtained with an estimate for the low LET radiation effect at the cellular level. This allows risk calculations for lung cancer from low LET radiation. The excess absolute risks are in tune with the values reported in the literature, the excess relative risks differ among the exposed groups. Comparing the cellular radiation coefficients for radon and for low LET radiation leads to an estimated radiation weighting factor for radon of 3 (0.1-6). (author)

  16. PCA as a practical indicator of OPLS-DA model reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worley, Bradley; Powers, Robert

    Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA) are powerful statistical modeling tools that provide insights into separations between experimental groups based on high-dimensional spectral measurements from NMR, MS or other analytical instrumentation. However, when used without validation, these tools may lead investigators to statistically unreliable conclusions. This danger is especially real for Partial Least Squares (PLS) and OPLS, which aggressively force separations between experimental groups. As a result, OPLS-DA is often used as an alternative method when PCA fails to expose group separation, but this practice is highly dangerous. Without rigorous validation, OPLS-DA can easily yield statistically unreliable group separation. A Monte Carlo analysis of PCA group separations and OPLS-DA cross-validation metrics was performed on NMR datasets with statistically significant separations in scores-space. A linearly increasing amount of Gaussian noise was added to each data matrix followed by the construction and validation of PCA and OPLS-DA models. With increasing added noise, the PCA scores-space distance between groups rapidly decreased and the OPLS-DA cross-validation statistics simultaneously deteriorated. A decrease in correlation between the estimated loadings (added noise) and the true (original) loadings was also observed. While the validity of the OPLS-DA model diminished with increasing added noise, the group separation in scores-space remained basically unaffected. Supported by the results of Monte Carlo analyses of PCA group separations and OPLS-DA cross-validation metrics, we provide practical guidelines and cross-validatory recommendations for reliable inference from PCA and OPLS-DA models.

  17. Investigating accessibility indicators for feedback from a travel to a land use model

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Nicolai; Kai Nagel

    2011-01-01

    Activity locations such as work locations or leisure facilities are not uniformly distributed geographically. Also, the travel access to different locations is not uniform. It is plausible to assume that locations with easier access to other activity locations are more attractive than locations with less access. In consequence, urban simulation models such as UrbanSim use accessibility measures, such as ``number of jobs with 30 minutes by car', for several of their submodels. A problem, howev...

  18. Good Concrete Activity Is Good Mental Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Early years mathematics classrooms can be colourful, exciting, and challenging places of learning. Andrea McDonough and fellow teachers have noticed that some students make good decisions about using materials to assist their problem solving, but this is not always the case. These experiences lead her to ask the following questions: (1) Are…

  19. A Good Suit Beats a Good Idea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiavelli, Nick

    1992-01-01

    Inspired by Niccolo Machiavelli, this column offers beleaguered school executives advice on looking good, dressing well, losing weight, beating the proper enemy, and saying nothing. Administrators who follow these simple rules should have an easier life, jealous colleagues, well-tended gardens, and respectful board members. (MLH)

  20. Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selene Loibel

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.Neste trabalho estudamos o problema de identificação do modelo de uma população utilizando um modelo dinâmico discreto baseado no modelo de crescimento de Richards. A população é submetida a intervenções devido ao consumo, como no caso de caça ou na criação de animais. A identificação do modelo permite-nos estimar a probabilidade ou o tempo médio de ocorrência para que se atinja um certo número populacional. A inferência paramétrica dos modelos é obtida através da técnica de perfil de máxima verossimilhança como desenvolvida neste trabalho. O método de identificação desenvolvido pode ser aplicado para avaliar a produtividade de criação animal ou o risco de extinção de uma população autóctone. Ele foi aplicado aos dados da população global de gado de corte bovino brasileiro, e é utilizado na investigação de a população atingir um certo número desejado de cabeças.

  1. Data warehouse model for monitoring key performance indicators (KPIs) using goal oriented approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Mohammed Thajeel; Ta'a, Azman; Bakar, Muhamad Shahbani Abu

    2016-08-01

    The growth and development of universities, just as other organizations, depend on their abilities to strategically plan and implement development blueprints which are in line with their vision and mission statements. The actualizations of these statements, which are often designed into goals and sub-goals and linked to their respective actors are better measured by defining key performance indicators (KPIs) of the university. The proposes ReGADaK, which is an extended the GRAnD approach highlights the facts, dimensions, attributes, measures and KPIs of the organization. The measures from the goal analysis of this unit serve as the basis of developing the related university's KPIs. The proposed data warehouse schema is evaluated through expert review, prototyping and usability evaluation. The findings from the evaluation processes suggest that the proposed data warehouse schema is suitable for monitoring the University's KPIs.

  2. ESTIMATION OF GAS EXCHANGE INDICATORS AT 3-D MODELING OF THE WORKING PROCESS OF THE TWO-STROKE PETROL ENGINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Korohodskyi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available With the help of 3-D modeling of the workflow of a two-stroke engine with spark ignition, crank-chamber scavenging and a carburetor feeding system in the modes of external speed characteristic the indices of gas exchange were evaluated. The simulation results are consistent with the experimental data and 3D simulation results in the AVL FIRE and MTFS® software complexes. The model allows performing optimized calculations of multiphase flow in ICE during experimental design work.

  3. The flow of goods model of the Rotterdam Port Authority; Het goederenstromenmodel voor de Rotterdamse haven. De verhouding tussen fysieke stromen en economische grootheden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saitua, R. [Haveninnovatie van het Gemeentelijk Havenbedrijf, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    1995-12-01

    Long term forecasts of the flow of goods through the Port of Rotterdam are essential for port development aims and to quantify the environmental effects of the generated traffic. Experience of the Rotterdam Port Authority shows that the differences between forecasts and realization can be explained by radical changes in the trends as a consequence of technological and social developments. In the `Flow of goods model number 6` scenario, techniques have been used to asses the fundamental uncertainty of the future, as well as a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods (for example expert judgements). Much attention has been given to the so called `dematerialization` trend, which means less use of primary commodities by production unit. Problems that have to be tackled within a more appropriate way are: (1) expected less growth of the trade measured in weight than the trade measured in monetary units; and (2) the influence of geographical patterns of production (lean production with global sourcing versus more local diffused production) on trade and transport flows. 2 tabs., 9 refs.

  4. Issues and Importance of "Good" Starting Points for Nonlinear Regression for Mathematical Modeling with Maple: Basic Model Fitting to Make Predictions with Oscillating Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, William

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of our modeling effort is to predict future outcomes. We assume the data collected are both accurate and relatively precise. For our oscillating data, we examined several mathematical modeling forms for predictions. We also examined both ignoring the oscillations as an important feature and including the oscillations as an important…

  5. Percentile-Based ETCCDI Temperature Extremes Indices for CMIP5 Model Output: New Results through Semiparametric Quantile Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Yang, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate extremes often manifest as rare events in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation with an annual reoccurrence period. In order to represent the manifold characteristics of climate extremes for monitoring and analysis, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) had worked out a set of 27 core indices based on daily temperature and precipitation data, describing extreme weather and climate events on an annual basis. The CLIMDEX project (http://www.climdex.org) had produced public domain datasets of such indices for data from a variety of sources, including output from global climate models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the 27 ETCCDI indices, there are six percentile-based temperature extremes indices that may fall into two groups: exceedance rates (ER) (TN10p, TN90p, TX10p and TX90p) and durations (CSDI and WSDI). Percentiles must be estimated prior to the calculation of the indices, and could more or less be biased by the adopted algorithm. Such biases will in turn be propagated to the final results of indices. The CLIMDEX used an empirical quantile estimator combined with a bootstrap resampling procedure to reduce the inhomogeneity in the annual series of the ER indices. However, there are still some problems remained in the CLIMDEX datasets, namely the overestimated climate variability due to unaccounted autocorrelation in the daily temperature data, seasonally varying biases and inconsistency between algorithms applied to the ER indices and to the duration indices. We now present new results of the six indices through a semiparametric quantile regression approach for the CMIP5 model output. By using the base-period data as a whole and taking seasonality and autocorrelation into account, this approach successfully addressed the aforementioned issues and came out with consistent results. The new datasets cover the historical and three projected (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP

  6. FORMALIZATION OF LOCOMOTIVE DRIVER ACTIVITY TENSION INDICATOR BASED ON THE ERGONOMIC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. M. Horobchenko

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. A key factor contributing to the safety and quality of ergatic system "train-driver" is the intensity of the locomotive crew’s work. The aim of this work is formalization of locomotive driver activity tension indicator. Methodology. One of the characteristics of driver activity tension is the difference between the time allotted to complete the task, and the necessary (external reserve or deficiency time. The sets of major and minor operations in the management of the train locomotive in different train situations were identified. Using the methods of fuzzy logic, the concept of "materiality of the operation of the locomotive control" is presented in the form of a set of linguistic variables. To determine the function membership of the elements of the set "the importance of the operation of the locomotive control" the method of expert evaluations was used. Coefficient of temporary tension is presented in the form of fuzzy number L-R-type. Findings. It was found the value of the relative number of operations of locomotive control according to the distribution using the parameter of operation "importance". To determine the most tensioned mode of the driver ranking the traffic condition according to the parameter of relative amounts of the important management operations was conducted. The most difficult modes are the "front hindrance", "movement in unfavorable weather conditions" and "departure from the station to the running line". Originality. The introduction of the value "conventional importance of the operation" allowed us to more accurately describe the terms of train driving. For the first time the work presents determination of tension of the driver’s work in the form of a unimodal fuzzy number, which will make it possible to use the methods of the theory of artificial intelligence to simulate activity of the locomotive driver and develop intelligent control systems. Practical value. There were obtained the opportunity to

  7. Multi-Analytical Approach Reveals Potential Microbial Indicators in Soil for Sugarcane Model Systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Acacio Aparecido Navarrete

    Full Text Available This study focused on the effects of organic and inorganic amendments and straw retention on the microbial biomass (MB and taxonomic groups of bacteria in sugarcane-cultivated soils in a greenhouse mesocosm experiment monitored for gas emissions and chemical factors. The experiment consisted of combinations of synthetic nitrogen (N, vinasse (V; a liquid waste from ethanol production, and sugarcane-straw blankets. Increases in CO2-C and N2O-N emissions were identified shortly after the addition of both N and V to the soils, thus increasing MB nitrogen (MB-N and decreasing MB carbon (MB-C in the N+V-amended soils and altering soil chemical factors that were correlated with the MB. Across 57 soil metagenomic datasets, Actinobacteria (31.5%, Planctomycetes (12.3%, Deltaproteobacteria (12.3%, Alphaproteobacteria (12.0% and Betaproteobacteria (11.1% were the most dominant bacterial groups during the experiment. Differences in relative abundance of metagenomic sequences were mainly revealed for Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Verrucomicrobia with regard to N+V fertilization and straw retention. Differential abundances in bacterial groups were confirmed using 16S rRNA gene-targeted phylum-specific primers for real-time PCR analysis in all soil samples, whose results were in accordance with sequence data, except for Gammaproteobacteria. Actinobacteria were more responsive to straw retention with Rubrobacterales, Bifidobacteriales and Actinomycetales related to the chemical factors of N+V-amended soils. Acidobacteria subgroup 7 and Opitutae, a verrucomicrobial class, were related to the chemical factors of soils without straw retention as a surface blanket. Taken together, the results showed that MB-C and MB-N responded to changes in soil chemical factors and CO2-C and N2O-N emissions, especially for N+V-amended soils. The results also indicated that several taxonomic groups of bacteria, such as Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria and

  8. Multi-Analytical Approach Reveals Potential Microbial Indicators in Soil for Sugarcane Model Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarrete, Acacio Aparecido; Diniz, Tatiana Rosa; Braga, Lucas Palma Perez; Silva, Genivaldo Gueiros Zacarias; Franchini, Julio Cezar; Rossetto, Raffaella; Edwards, Robert Alan; Tsai, Siu Mui

    2015-01-01

    This study focused on the effects of organic and inorganic amendments and straw retention on the microbial biomass (MB) and taxonomic groups of bacteria in sugarcane-cultivated soils in a greenhouse mesocosm experiment monitored for gas emissions and chemical factors. The experiment consisted of combinations of synthetic nitrogen (N), vinasse (V; a liquid waste from ethanol production), and sugarcane-straw blankets. Increases in CO2-C and N2O-N emissions were identified shortly after the addition of both N and V to the soils, thus increasing MB nitrogen (MB-N) and decreasing MB carbon (MB-C) in the N+V-amended soils and altering soil chemical factors that were correlated with the MB. Across 57 soil metagenomic datasets, Actinobacteria (31.5%), Planctomycetes (12.3%), Deltaproteobacteria (12.3%), Alphaproteobacteria (12.0%) and Betaproteobacteria (11.1%) were the most dominant bacterial groups during the experiment. Differences in relative abundance of metagenomic sequences were mainly revealed for Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and Verrucomicrobia with regard to N+V fertilization and straw retention. Differential abundances in bacterial groups were confirmed using 16S rRNA gene-targeted phylum-specific primers for real-time PCR analysis in all soil samples, whose results were in accordance with sequence data, except for Gammaproteobacteria. Actinobacteria were more responsive to straw retention with Rubrobacterales, Bifidobacteriales and Actinomycetales related to the chemical factors of N+V-amended soils. Acidobacteria subgroup 7 and Opitutae, a verrucomicrobial class, were related to the chemical factors of soils without straw retention as a surface blanket. Taken together, the results showed that MB-C and MB-N responded to changes in soil chemical factors and CO2-C and N2O-N emissions, especially for N+V-amended soils. The results also indicated that several taxonomic groups of bacteria, such as Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria and

  9. Evaluation of eco-physiological indicators in Northeast Asia dryland regions based on MODIS products and ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, W.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem carbon-energy-water circles have significant effect on function and structure and vice verse. Based on these circles mechanism, some eco-physiological indicators, like Transpiration (T), gross primary productivity (GPP), light use efficiency (LUE) and water use efficiency (WUE), are commonly applied to assess terrestrial ecosystem function and structure dynamics. The ecosystem weakened function and simple structure in Northeast dryland regions resulted from land degradation or desertification, which could be demonstrated by above-mentioned indicators. In this study, based on MODIS atmosphere (MYD07, MYD04, MYD06 data) and land products (MYD13A2 NDVI, MYD11A1 LST, MYD15A2 LAI and land cover data), we first retrieved transpiration and LUE via Penman-Monteith Model and modified Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), respectively; and then evaluated dynamics of these eco-physiological indicators (Tair, VPD, T, LUE, GPP and WUE) and some hotspots were found for next land degradation assessment. The results showed: (1) LUE and WUE are lower in barren or sparsely vegetated area and grasslands than in forest and croplands. (2) Whereas, all indicators presented higher variability in grassland area, particularly in east Mongolia. (3) GPP and transpiration have larger variability than other indicators due to fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). These eco-physiological indicators are expected to continue to change under future climate change and to help to assess land degradation from ecosystem energy-water-carbon perspectives.

  10. Predictive model of nicotine dependence based on mental health indicators and self-concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Kazemi Zahrani

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The purpose of this research was to investigate the predictive power of anxiety, depression, stress and self-concept dimensions (Mental ability, job efficiency, physical attractiveness, social skills, and deficiencies and merits as predictors of nicotine dependency among university students in Isfahan. Methods: In this correlational study, 110 male nicotine-dependent students at Isfahan University were selected by convenience sampling. All samples were assessed by Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS, self-concept test and Nicotine Dependence Syndrome Scale. Data were analyzed by Pearson correlation and stepwise regression. Results: The result showed that anxiety had the highest strength to predict nicotine dependence. In addition, the self-concept and its dimensions predicted only 12% of the variance in nicotine dependence, which was not significant. Conclusion: Emotional processing variables involved in mental health play an important role in presenting a model to predict students’ dependence on nicotine more than identity variables such as different dimensions of self-concept.

  11. Multi-indication Pharmacotherapeutic Multicriteria Decision Analytic Model for the Comparative Formulary Inclusion of Proton Pump Inhibitors in Qatar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Badriyeh, Daoud; Alabbadi, Ibrahim; Fahey, Michael; Al-Khal, Abdullatif; Zaidan, Manal

    2016-05-01

    The formulary inclusion of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) in the government hospital health services in Qatar is not comparative or restricted. Requests to include a PPI in the formulary are typically accepted if evidence of efficacy and tolerability is presented. There are no literature reports of a PPI scoring model that is based on comparatively weighted multiple indications and no reports of PPI selection in Qatar or the Middle East. This study aims to compare first-line use of the PPIs that exist in Qatar. The economic effect of the study recommendations was also quantified. A comparative, evidence-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was constructed to follow the multiple indications and pharmacotherapeutic criteria of PPIs. Literature and an expert panel informed the selection criteria of PPIs. Input from the relevant local clinician population steered the relative weighting of selection criteria. Comparatively scored PPIs, exceeding a defined score threshold, were recommended for selection. Weighted model scores were successfully developed, with 95% CI and 5% margin of error. The model comprised 7 main criteria and 38 subcriteria. Main criteria are indication, dosage frequency, treatment duration, best published evidence, available formulations, drug interactions, and pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties. Most weight was achieved for the indications selection criteria. Esomeprazole and rabeprazole were suggested as formulary options, followed by lansoprazole for nonformulary use. The estimated effect of the study recommendations was up to a 15.3% reduction in the annual PPI expenditure. Robustness of study conclusions against variabilities in study inputs was confirmed via sensitivity analyses. The implementation of a locally developed PPI-specific comparative MCDA scoring model, which is multiweighted indication and criteria based, into the Qatari formulary selection practices is a successful evidence-based cost-cutting exercise

  12. Improving Healthcare in Pediatric Oncology: Development and Testing of Multiple Indicators to Evaluate a Hub-And-Spoke Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucchetti, Giulia; Bertorello, Nicoletta; Angelastro, Angela; Gianino, Paola; Bona, Gianni; Barbara, Affif; Besenzon, Luigi; Brach Del Prever, Adalberto; Pesce, Fernando; Nangeroni, Marco; Fagioli, Franca

    2017-06-01

    Purpose The hub-and-spoke is a new innovation model in healthcare that has been adopted in some countries to manage rare pathologies. We developed a set of indicators to assess current quality practices of the hub-and-spoke model adopted in the Interregional Pediatric Oncology Network in Northwest Italy and to promote patient, family, and professional healthcare empowerment. Methods Literature and evidence-based clinical guidelines were reviewed and multiprofessional team workshops were carried out to highlight some important issues on healthcare in pediatric oncology and to translate them into a set of multiple indicators. For each indicator, specific questions were formulated and tested through a series of questionnaires completed by 80 healthcare professionals and 50 pediatric patients and their parents. Results The results highlighted a positive perception of healthcare delivered by the hub-and-spoke model (M HP = 156, M Pat = 93, M Par = 104). Based on the participants' suggestions, some quality improvements have been implemented. Conclusions This study represents the first attempt to examine this new model of pediatric oncology care through the active involvement of patients, families, and healthcare professionals. Suggestions for adopting a hub-and-spoke model in pediatric oncology in other regions and countries are also highlighted.

  13. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. Heat balance model for a human body in the form of wet bulb globe temperature indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakoi, Tomonori; Mochida, Tohru; Kurazumi, Yoshihito; Kuwabara, Kohei; Horiba, Yosuke; Sawada, Shin-Ichi

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to expand the empirically derived wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index to a rational thermal index based on the heat balance for a human body. We derive the heat balance model in the same form as the WBGT for a human engaged in moderate intensity work with a metabolic heat production of 174W/m 2 while wearing typical vapor-permeable clothing under shady and sunny conditions. Two important relationships are revealed based on this derivation: (1) the natural wet bulb and black globe temperature coefficients in the WBGT coincide with the heat balance equation for a human body with a fixed skin wettedness of approximately 0.45 at a fixed skin temperature; and (2) the WBGT can be interpreted as the environmental potential to increase skin temperature rather than the heat storage rate of a human body. We propose an adjustment factor calculation method that supports the application of WBGT for humans dressed in various clothing types and working under various air velocity conditions. Concurrently, we note difficulties in adjusting the WBGT by using a single factor for humans wearing vapor-impermeable protective clothing. The WBGT for shady conditions does not need adjustment depending on the positive radiant field (i.e., when a radiant heat source exists), whereas that for the sunny condition requires adjustments because it underestimates heat stress, which may result in insufficient human protection measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The conceptualization and measurement of cognitive reserve using common proxy indicators: Testing some tenable reflective and formative models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikanga, Jean; Hill, Elizabeth M; MacDonald, Douglas A

    2017-02-01

    The examination of cognitive reserve (CR) literature reveals a lack of consensus regarding conceptualization and pervasive problems with its measurement. This study aimed at examining the conceptual nature of CR through the analysis of reflective and formative models using eight proxies commonly employed in the CR literature. We hypothesized that all CR proxies would significantly contribute to a one-factor reflective model and that educational and occupational attainment would produce the strongest loadings on a single CR factor. The sample consisted of 149 participants (82 male/67 female), with 18.1 average years of education and ages of 45-99 years. Participants were assessed for eight proxies of CR (parent socioeconomic status, intellectual functioning, level of education, health literacy, occupational prestige, life leisure activities, physical activities, and spiritual and religious activities). Primary statistical analyses consisted of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to test reflective models and structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) models. CFA did not produce compelling support for a unitary CR construct when using all eight of our CR proxy variables in a reflective model but fairly cogent evidence for a one-factor model with four variable proxies. A second three-factor reflective model based upon an exploratory principal components analysis of the eight proxies was tested using CFA. Though all eight indicators significantly loaded on their assigned factors, evidence in support of overall model fit was mixed. Based upon the results involving the three-factor reflective model, two alternative formative models were developed and evaluated. While some support was obtained for both, the model in which the formative influences were specified as latent variables appeared to best account for the contributions of all eight proxies to the CR construct. While the findings provide partial support for our

  16. Identification of early indicators of altered metabolism in normal development using a rodent model system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashok Daniel Prabakaran

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Although the existence of a close relationship between the early maternal developmental environment, fetal size at birth and the risk of developing disease in adulthood has been suggested, most studies, however, employed experimentally induced intrauterine growth restriction as a model to link this with later adult disease. Because embryonic size variation also occurs under normal growth and differentiation, elucidating the molecular mechanisms underlying these changes and their relevance to later adult disease risk becomes important. The birth weight of rat pups vary according to the uterine horn positions. Using birth weight as a marker, we compared two groups of rat pups – lower birth weight (LBW, 5th to 25th percentile and average birth weight (ABW, 50th to 75th percentile – using morphological, biochemical and molecular biology, and genetic techniques. Our results show that insulin metabolism, Pi3k/Akt and Pparγ signaling and the genes regulating growth and metabolism are significantly different in these groups. Methylation at the promoter of the InsII (Ins2 gene and DNA methyltransferase 1 in LBW pups are both increased. Additionally, the Dnmt1 repressor complex, which includes Hdac1, Rb (Rb1 and E2f1, was also upregulated in LBW pups. We conclude that the Dnmt1 repressor complex, which regulates the restriction point of the cell cycle, retards the rate at which cells traverse the G1 or G0 phase of the cell cycle in LBW pups, thereby slowing down growth. This regulatory mechanism mediated by Dnmt1 might contribute to the production of small-size pups and altered physiology and pathology in adult life.

  17. MOLECULAR MODELING INDICATES THAT HOMOCYSTEINE INDUCES CONFORMATIONAL CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF PUTATIVE TARGET PROTEINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yumnam Silla

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available An elevated level of homocysteine, a reactive thiol containing amino acid is associated with a multitude of complex diseases. A majority (>80% of homocysteine in circulation is bound to protein cysteine residues. Although, till date only 21 proteins have been experimentally shown to bind with homocysteine, using an insilico approach we had earlier identified several potential target proteins that could bind with homocysteine. Shomocysteinylation of proteins could potentially alter the structure and/or function of the protein. Earlier studies have shown that binding of homocysteine to protein alters its function. However, the effect of homocysteine on the target protein structure has not yet been documented. In the present work, we assess conformational or structural changes if any due to protein homocysteinylation using two proteins, granzyme B (GRAB and junctional adhesion molecule 1 (JAM1, which could potentially bind to homocysteine. We, for the first time, constructed computational models of homocysteine bound to target proteins and monitored their structural changes using explicit solvent molecular dynamic (MD simulation. Analysis of homocysteine bound trajectories revealed higher flexibility of the active site residues and local structural perturbations compared to the unbound native structure’s simulation, which could affect the stability of the protein. In addition, secondary structure analysis of homocysteine bound trajectories also revealed disappearance of â-helix within the G-helix and linker region that connects between the domain regions (as defined in the crystal structure. Our study thus captures the conformational transitions induced by homocysteine and we suggest these structural alterations might have implications for hyperhomocysteinemia induced pathologies.

  18. Degree of anisotropy as an automated indicator of rip channels in high resolution bathymetric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimble, S. M.; Houser, C.; Bishop, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    A rip current is a concentrated seaward flow of water that forms in the surf zone of a beach as a result of alongshore variations in wave breaking. Rips can carry swimmers swiftly into deep water, and they are responsible for hundreds of fatal drownings and thousands of rescues worldwide each year. These currents form regularly alongside hard structures like piers and jetties, and can also form along sandy coasts when there is a three dimensional bar morphology. This latter rip type tends to be variable in strength and location, making them arguably the most dangerous to swimmers and most difficult to identify. These currents form in characteristic rip channels in surf zone bathymetry, in which the primary axis of self-similarity is oriented shore-normal. This paper demonstrates a new method for automating identification of such rip channels in bathymetric digital surface models (DSMs) using bathymetric data collected by various remote sensing methods. Degree of anisotropy is used to detect rip channels and distinguishes between sandbars, rip channels, and other beach features. This has implications for coastal geomorphology theory and safety practices. As technological advances increase access and accuracy of topobathy mapping methods in the surf zone, frequent nearshore bathymetric DSMs could be more easily captured and processed, then analyzed with this method to result in localized, automated, and frequent detection of rip channels. This could ultimately reduce rip-related fatalities worldwide (i) in present mitigation, by identifying the present location of rip channels, (ii) in forecasting, by tracking the channel's evolution through multiple DSMs, and (iii) in rip education by improving local lifeguard knowledge of the rip hazard. Although this paper on applies analysis of degree of anisotropy to the identification of rip channels, this parameter can be applied to multiple facets of barrier island morphological analysis.

  19. Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

    2016-05-01

    Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

  20. Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

    2018-01-01

    With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

  1. Applying dynamic simulation modeling methods in health care delivery research - the SIMULATE checklist: Report of the ISPOR simulation modeling emerging good practices task force

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marshall, Deborah A.; Burgos-Liz, Lina; IJzerman, Maarten Joost; Osgood, Nathaniel D.; Padula, William V.; Higashi, Mitchell K.; Wong, Peter K.; Pasupathy, Kalyan S.; Crown, William

    2015-01-01

    Health care delivery systems are inherently complex, consisting of multiple tiers of interdependent subsystems and processes that are adaptive to changes in the environment and behave in a nonlinear fashion. Traditional health technology assessment and modeling methods often neglect the wider health

  2. Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

    2012-01-01

    Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

  3. The common good

    OpenAIRE

    Argandoña, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The concept of the common good occupied a relevant place in classical social, political and economic philosophy. After losing ground in the Modern age, it has recently reappeared, although with different and sometimes confusing meanings. This paper is the draft of a chapter of a Handbook; it explains the meaning of common good in the Aristotelian-Thomistic philosophy and in the Social Doctrine of the Catholic Church; why the common good is relevant; and how it is different from the other uses...

  4. Large order asymptotics and convergent perturbation theory for critical indices of the φ4 model in 4 - ε expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honkonen, J.; Komarova, M.; Nalimov, M.

    2002-01-01

    Large order asymptotic behaviour of renormalization constants in the minimal subtraction scheme for the φ 4 (4 - ε) theory is discussed. Well-known results of the asymptotic 4 - ε expansion of critical indices are shown to be far from the large order asymptotic value. A convergent series for the model φ 4 (4 - ε) is then considered. Radius of convergence of the series for Green functions and for renormalisation group functions is studied. The results of the convergent expansion of critical indices in the 4 - ε scheme are revalued using the knowledge of large order asymptotics. Specific features of this procedure are discussed (Authors)

  5. Transport of hazardous goods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The course 'Transport of hazardous goods' was held in Berlin in November 1988 in cooperation with the Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung. From all lecturs, two are recorded separately: 'Safety of tank trucks - requirements on the tank, development possibiities of active and passive safety' and 'Requirements on the transport of radioactive materials - possible derivations for other hazardous goods'. The other lectures deal with hazardous goods law, requirements on packinging, risk assessment, railroad transport, hazardous goods road network, insurance matters, EC regulations, and waste tourism. (HSCH) [de

  6. On good ETOL forms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skyum, Sven

    1978-01-01

    This paper continues the study of ETOL forms and good EOL forms done by Maurer, Salomaa and Wood. It is proven that binary very complete ETOL forms exist, good synchronized ETOL forms exist and that no propagating or synchronized ETOL form can be very complete.......This paper continues the study of ETOL forms and good EOL forms done by Maurer, Salomaa and Wood. It is proven that binary very complete ETOL forms exist, good synchronized ETOL forms exist and that no propagating or synchronized ETOL form can be very complete....

  7. On Having a Good

    OpenAIRE

    Korsgaard, Christine M.

    2014-01-01

    In some recent papers I have been arguing that the concept ‘good-for’ is prior to the concept of ‘good’ (in the sense in which final ends are good), and exploring the implications of that claim. One of those implications is that everything that is good is good for someone. That implication seems to fall afoul of our intuitions about certain cases, such as the intuition that a world full of happy people and animals is better than a world full of miserable ones, even if the people and animals a...

  8. Business Climate and Good Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Besmira Manaj

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper consists of three factors, namely: Good Governance, Business Climate and Corruption. How they affect the development product of Albania, not only as a concept, and a principle but mostly as a sensitive aspect in the integration process. There are some interpretations of this concept, but I intend to analyze the key factors and actors, their cooperation and concrete production in society. Improving governance is necessary to have an integrated long term strategy based upon a continuous cooperation between institutions and citizens. But in developing countries like Albania there are some important questions such as: How can we measure the improvement of Good Governance through policies? Has Good Governance indicated an effective way for the sustainable development? (Meisel, 2008, 6. These question give us the orientation to reflect about the process of development, social economic political behavior and how this multidimensional is transformed in product of good governance. The business cycle is strongly connected with many aspects of political-, social-, juridical aspects and good governance. Despite attempts to draft law regulations, the level of corruption and informality in Albania continues to be a major obstacle. The credibility level in the implementation of law is an indicator that affects democratization and institutional integration. At present, different reports of international institutions, define Albania as the country with the highest level of Corruption in the Balkans, which is a key factor influencing business. The ways with

  9. IN SEARCH OF GOOD PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR SPEED SKATING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Eb, J.W.; Zandee, Willem; van der Bogaard, Timo; Veeger, H.E.J.; Beek, P.J.

    The force produced to propel a body forward in speed skating is directed almost perpendicular to the forward motion, because a skate moves nearly frictionless in the for-aft direction and more or less fixed (against the ice) in sideways lateral direction, resulting in a sliding point to push off

  10. Benthic polychaetes as good indicators of anthropogenic impact

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sivadas, S.; Ingole, B.S.; Nanajkar, M.

    was highest during post monsoon, mainly due to new recruitment. Pre monsoon is the most stable period for community development when, the fauna was dominated by opportunistic deposit feeding polychaete species. Average abundance ranged from 652-4096 ind m sup...

  11. IN SEARCH OF GOOD PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR SPEED SKATING

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Eb, J.W.; Zandee, Willem; van der Bogaard, Timo; Veeger, H.E.J.; Beek, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The force produced to propel a body forward in speed skating is directed almost perpendicular to the forward motion, because a skate moves nearly frictionless in the for-aft direction and more or less fixed (against the ice) in sideways lateral direction, resulting in a sliding point to push off

  12. Models for financial crisis detection in Indonesia based on bank deposits, real exchange rate and terms of trade indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyanto; Zukhronah, Etik; Nur Aini, Anis

    2017-12-01

    Several times Indonesia has experienced to face a financial crisis, but the crisis occurred in 1997 had a tremendous impact on the economy and national stability. The impact of the crisis fall the exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar so it is needed the financial crisis detection system. Some data of bank deposits, real exchange rate and terms of trade indicators are used in this paper. Data taken from January 1990 until December 2016 are used to form the models with three state. Combination of volatility and Markov switching models are used to model the data. The result suggests that the appropriate model for bank deposit and terms of trade is SWARCH (3,1), and for real exchange rates is SWARCH (3,2).

  13. Trophic flow structure of a neotropical estuary in northeastern Brazil and the comparison of ecosystem model indicators of estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lira, Alex; Angelini, Ronaldo; Le Loc'h, François; Ménard, Frédéric; Lacerda, Carlos; Frédou, Thierry; Lucena Frédou, Flávia

    2018-06-01

    We developed an Ecopath model for the Estuary of Sirinhaém River (SIR), a small-sized system surrounded by mangroves, subject to high impact, mainly by the sugar cane and other farming industries in order to describe the food web structure and trophic interactions. In addition, we compared our findings with those of 20 available Ecopath estuarine models for tropical, subtropical and temperate regions, aiming to synthesize the knowledge on trophic dynamics and provide a comprehensive analysis of the structures and functioning of estuaries. Our model consisted of 25 compartments and its indicators were within the expected range for estuarine areas around the world. The average trophic transfer efficiency for the entire system was 11.8%, similar to the theoretical value of 10%. The Keystone Index and MTI (Mixed Trophic Impact) analysis indicated that the snook (Centropomus undecimalis and Centropomus parallelus) and jack (Caranx latus and Caranx hippos) are considered as key resources in the system, revealing their high impact in the food web. Both groups have a high ecological and commercial relevance, despite the unregulated fisheries. As result of the comparison of ecosystem model indicators in estuaries, differences in the ecosystem structure from the low latitude zones (tropical estuaries) to the high latitude zones (temperate system) were noticed. The structure of temperate and sub-tropical estuaries is based on high flows of detritus and export, while tropical systems have high biomass, respiration and consumption rates. Higher values of System Omnivory Index (SOI) and Overhead (SO) were observed in the tropical and subtropical estuaries, denoting a more complex food chain. Globally, none of the estuarine models were classified as fully mature ecosystems, although the tropical ecosystems were considered more mature than the subtropical and temperate ecosystems. This study is an important contribution to the trophic modeling of estuaries, which may also help

  14. The effects of training based on BASNEF model and acupressure at GB21 point on the infants’ physical growth indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    marzieh akbarzadeh

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available objective: Educational models are used to study the behavior and plan for changing and determining the factors that affect the individuals’ decision making for conducting a behavior. This study aimed to compare the effects of the educational program based on BASNEF model and acupressure at GB21 point on the infants’ physical growth indicators. Methods: This clinical trial was conducted on 150 (50 per group pregnant women in 2011-2012. The interventions included educational program based on the BASNEF model and application of acupressure at GB21 point. The infants’ physical indicators were compared to the control group one and three months after birth. The study data were analyzed using repeated measurement test, paired sample T-Test, one-way ANOVA, and Tukey’s test. finding: The results showed a significant difference between the intervention and the control group regarding the infants’ weight and height one and three months after birth (p0.05. Also, no significant difference was observed among the three groups concerning the infants’ head and arm circumference (P>0.05. Conclusion: BASNEF model improved the infants’ height and weight. Application of acupressure also improved the infants’ height, weight, and head and arm circumference compared to the control group. Hence, learning and application of techniques and models by the medical team are highly essential.

  15. Application of empirical predictive modeling using conventional and alternative fecal indicator bacteria in eastern North Carolina waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Raul; Conn, Kathleen E.; Crosswell, Joey; Noble, Rachel

    2012-01-01

    Coastal and estuarine waters are the site of intense anthropogenic influence with concomitant use for recreation and seafood harvesting. Therefore, coastal and estuarine water quality has a direct impact on human health. In eastern North Carolina (NC) there are over 240 recreational and 1025 shellfish harvesting water quality monitoring sites that are regularly assessed. Because of the large number of sites, sampling frequency is often only on a weekly basis. This frequency, along with an 18–24 h incubation time for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) enumeration via culture-based methods, reduces the efficiency of the public notification process. In states like NC where beach monitoring resources are limited but historical data are plentiful, predictive models may offer an improvement for monitoring and notification by providing real-time FIB estimates. In this study, water samples were collected during 12 dry (n = 88) and 13 wet (n = 66) weather events at up to 10 sites. Statistical predictive models for Escherichiacoli (EC), enterococci (ENT), and members of the Bacteroidales group were created and subsequently validated. Our results showed that models for EC and ENT (adjusted R2 were 0.61 and 0.64, respectively) incorporated a range of antecedent rainfall, climate, and environmental variables. The most important variables for EC and ENT models were 5-day antecedent rainfall, dissolved oxygen, and salinity. These models successfully predicted FIB levels over a wide range of conditions with a 3% (EC model) and 9% (ENT model) overall error rate for recreational threshold values and a 0% (EC model) overall error rate for shellfish threshold values. Though modeling of members of the Bacteroidales group had less predictive ability (adjusted R2 were 0.56 and 0.53 for fecal Bacteroides spp. and human Bacteroides spp., respectively), the modeling approach and testing provided information on Bacteroidales ecology. This is the first example of a set of successful statistical

  16. Paradoxes around good governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.G. Dijkstra (Geske)

    2013-01-01

    textabstract Good governance is not a new concept Ambrogio Lorenzetti made his frescoes on good and bad governance already in the years 1338-1340 They can be viewed in the Palazzo Publicco on one of the most beautiful squares of the world, the Piazza del Campo in Siena, Italy I assume many of you

  17. "Act in Good Faith."

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Robert B.

    1979-01-01

    It is argued that the Supreme Court's Bakke decision overturning the University of California's minority admissions program is good for those who favor affirmative action programs in higher education. The Supreme Court gives wide latitude for devising programs that take race and ethnic background into account if colleges are acting in good faith.…

  18. Nurturing Good Ideas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C.M. van den Ende (Jan); R.C. Kijkuit (Bob)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractManagers know that simply generating lots of ideas doesn’t necessarily produce good ones. What companies need are systems that nurture good ideas and cull bad ones—before they ever reach the decision maker’s desk. Our research shows that tapping the input of many people early in the

  19. A good patient?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, Catherine; Scott, Kerry; Skovdal, Morten

    2015-01-01

    , physical cleanliness, honesty, gratitude and lifestyle adaptations (taking pills correctly andcoming to the clinic when told). As healthcare workers may decide to punish patients who do not live up the‘good patient persona’, many patients seek to perform within the confines of the ‘good patient persona...

  20. The Good Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly

    2003-01-01

    Examines the working lives of geneticists and journalists to place into perspective what lies behind personal ethics and success. Defines "good work" as productive activity that is valued socially and loved by people engaged in it. Asserts that certain cultural values, social controls, and personal standards are necessary to maintain good work and…

  1. Advice on Good Grooming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tingey, Carol

    1987-01-01

    Suggestions are presented from parents on how to help children with disabilities (with particular focus on Downs Syndrome) learn good grooming habits in such areas as good health, exercise, cleanliness, teeth and hair care, skin care, glasses and other devices, and social behavior. (CB)

  2. Irradiation of goods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunt, R.E.

    1987-01-01

    Mechanical handling apparatus is adapted to handle goods, such as boxed fruit, during a process of irradiation, in palletized form. Palletized goods are loaded onto wheeled vehicles in a loading zone. Four vehicles are wheeled on a track into an irradiation zone via a door in a concrete shield. The vehicles are arranged in orthogonal relationship around a source of square section. Turntables are positioned at corners of the square shaped rail truck around the source selectively to turn the vehicles to align then with track sections. Mechanical manipulating devices are positioned in the track sections opposed to sides of the source. During irradiation, the vehicles and their palletized goods are cylically moved toward the source to offer first sides of the goods for irradiation and are retraced from the source and are pivoted through 90 0 to persent succeeding sides of the goods for irradiation

  3. Research on Effective Supply Mode of Rural Public Goods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    On the basis of definition and classification of rural public goods, this paper analyses the status quo of public goods supply in vast rural areas of China, and it indicates that the electricity and communication facility in rural areas have not yet been popularized; the culture and education facility is critically backward; the medical care and social warfare institutions are short. It points out the rational supply model of public goods as follows: the government plays dominant role in the public goods supply with a large amount of investments, related to the quality of living and production of multitudinous farmers; small wieldy quasi-public goods that can be easily supplied and marginalized public goods can introduce multiplex supply main body under the framework of government guidance. According to this model, corresponding policy suggestions are put forward as follows: increase financial inputs, and perfect local financial system; actively encourage the majority of farmers in rural areas to participate in public goods supply mechanism, so that the supply has pertinence; vigorously develop multiplex supply system of rural public goods, to ensure effective supply.

  4. Good breastfeeding policies -- good breastfeeding rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    In Norway, where breast-feeding policies protecting breast-feeding women's needs have been in place since the 1970s, approximately 97% of women breast feed when leaving the hospital, 80% are breast feeding at 3 months, and 20% beyond 12 months. Government family policies play an important role in enabling women to achieve good breast-feeding rates. In Norway: maternity leave is 42 weeks with full pay or 52 weeks with 80% of salary; flexible part-time is available for women from 2 months after giving birth with income supplemented from maternity benefits; after returning to work, women are entitled to 1- to 1.5-hour breaks to return home to breast feed, or to have the child brought to work. "Breast feeding is so normal," writes Hege Jacobson Lepri, "it's more embarrassing to bring out the feeding bottle in public." full text

  5. Large-scale determinants of diversity across Spanish forest habitats: accounting for model uncertainty in compositional and structural indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin-Quller, E.; Torras, O.; Alberdi, I.; Solana, J.; Saura, S.

    2011-07-01

    An integral understanding of forest biodiversity requires the exploration of the many aspects it comprises and of the numerous potential determinants of their distribution. The landscape ecological approach provides a necessary complement to conventional local studies that focus on individual plots or forest ownerships. However, most previous landscape studies used equally-sized cells as units of analysis to identify the factors affecting forest biodiversity distribution. Stratification of the analysis by habitats with a relatively homogeneous forest composition might be more adequate to capture the underlying patterns associated to the formation and development of a particular ensemble of interacting forest species. Here we used a landscape perspective in order to improve our understanding on the influence of large-scale explanatory factors on forest biodiversity indicators in Spanish habitats, covering a wide latitudinal and attitudinal range. We considered six forest biodiversity indicators estimated from more than 30,000 field plots in the Spanish national forest inventory, distributed in 213 forest habitats over 16 Spanish provinces. We explored biodiversity response to various environmental (climate and topography) and landscape configuration (fragmentation and shape complexity) variables through multiple linear regression models (built and assessed through the Akaike Information Criterion). In particular, we took into account the inherent model uncertainty when dealing with a complex and large set of variables, and considered different plausible models and their probability of being the best candidate for the observed data. Our results showed that compositional indicators (species richness and diversity) were mostly explained by environmental factors. Models for structural indicators (standing deadwood and stand complexity) had the worst fits and selection uncertainties, but did show significant associations with some configuration metrics. In general

  6. PUBLIC GOODS, CORRUPTION AND GROWTH???

    OpenAIRE

    Ratbek Dzhumashev

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we analyse implications of corruption on growth. We extend existing growth models by incorporating ubiquitous corruption as a by-product of the public sector. Corruption affects both taxation and public good provision, and therefore causes income redistribution and inefficiencies in the public sector. These effects of corruption lead to lower growth through distortions of investment incentives and resources allocation.

  7. Identifying models of delivery, care domains and quality indicators relevant to palliative day services: a scoping review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Seán R; Dempster, Martin; McCorry, Noleen K

    2017-05-16

    With an ageing population and increasing numbers of people with life-limiting illness, there is a growing demand for palliative day services. There is a need to measure and demonstrate the quality of these services, but there is currently little agreement on which aspects of care should be used to do this. The aim of the scoping review will be to map the extent, range and nature of the evidence around models of delivery, care domains and existing quality indicators used to evaluate palliative day services. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) will be searched for evidence using consensus development methods; randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials; mixed methods; and prospective, longitudinal or retrospective case-control studies to develop or test quality indicators for evaluating palliative care within non-residential settings, including day hospices and community or primary care settings. At least two researchers will independently conduct all searches, study selection and data abstraction procedures. Meta-analyses and statistical methods of synthesis are not planned as part of the review. Results will be reported using numerical counts, including number of indicators in each care domain and by using qualitative approach to describe important indicator characteristics. A conceptual model will also be developed to summarise the impact of different aspects of quality in a palliative day service context. Methodological quality relating to indicator development will be assessed using the Appraisal of Indicators through Research and Evaluation (AIRE) tool. Overall strength of evidence will be assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system. Final decisions on quality assessment will be made via consensus between review authors. Identifying, developing and implementing evidence-based quality indicators is critical to the evaluation and

  8. Aged Lewis rats exposed to low and moderate doses of rotenone are a good model for studying the process of protein aggregation and its effects upon central nervous system cell physiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Almeida

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Cell physiology is impaired before protein aggregation and this may be more relevant than inclusions themselves for neurodegeneration. The present study aimed to characterize an animal model to enable the analysis of the cell biology before and after protein aggregation. Ten-month-old Lewis rats were exposed either to 1 or 2 mg/kg/day of rotenone, delivered subcutaneously through mini-pumps, for one month. Hyperphosphorylated TAU, alpha-synuclein, amyloid-beta peptide and protein carbonylation (indicative of oxidative stress were evaluated in the hippocampus, substantia nigra and locus coeruleus through immunohistochemistry or western blot. It was found that 2 mg/kg/day rotenone increased amyloid-beta peptide, hyperphosphorylation of TAU and alpha-synuclein. Rotenone at 1mg/kg/day did not alter protein levels. Protein carbonylation remained unchanged. This study demonstrated that aged Lewis rats exposed to a low dose of rotenone is a useful model to study cellular processes before protein aggregation, while the higher dose makes a good model to study the effects of protein inclusions.

  9. Transportation of hazardous goods

    CERN Multimedia

    TS Department

    2008-01-01

    A general reminder: any transportation of hazardous goods by road is subject to the European ADR rules. The goods concerned are essentially the following: Explosive substances and objects; Gases (including aerosols and non-flammable gases such as helium and nitrogen); Flammable substances and liquids (inks, paints, resins, petroleum products, alcohols, acetone, thinners); Toxic substances (acids, thinners); Radioactive substances; Corrosive substances (paints, acids, caustic products, disinfectants, electrical batteries). Any requests for the transport of hazardous goods must be executed in compliance with the instructions given at this URL: http://ts-dep.web.cern.ch/ts-dep/groups/he/HH/adr.pdf Heavy Handling Section TS-HE-HH 73793 - 160364

  10. TRANSPORT OF COUNTERFEIT GOODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagmar Babčanová

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on a current problem of transport of counterfeit goods in the European Union. Counterfeiting has a strong influence on the distribution organizations worldwide because most of counterfeit goods threaten the health and safety of consumers. Counterfeiting is a serious problem in the world economy today. The purpose of this paper is to point out the danger of counterfeiting in connection with the transport of Intellectual Property (IP rights - infringing goods. Background of the paper’s content is based on secondary data research of publicly available sources - international statistics and world reports.

  11. Doing Good, Feeling Bad

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Devika

    2017-01-01

    For decades humanitarianism has captured and shaped the dreams of the populations of the global North, dreams of a better world, of a common humanity, of goodness, of solidarity, and of global healing. In this article I argue that when taking art and cultural objects into account humanitarian......, Danmarks Indsamling [Denmark Collects], and the second is from Norwegian playwright Arne Lygre’s 2011 play, I Disappear. What is at stake in both of these scenes is the status of humanitarianism as a good-enough fantasy and promise of doing good....

  12. Confirmatory factory analysis of the Neck Disability Index in a general problematic neck population indicates a one-factor model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabel, Charles Philip; Cuesta-Vargas, Antonio I; Osborne, Jason W; Burkett, Brendan; Melloh, Markus

    2014-08-01

    The Neck Disability Index frequently is used to measure outcomes of the neck. The statistical rigor of the Neck Disability Index has been assessed with conflicting outcomes. To date, Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Neck Disability Index has not been reported for a suitably large population study. Because the Neck Disability Index is not a condition-specific measure of neck function, initial Confirmatory Factor Analysis should consider problematic neck patients as a homogenous group. We sought to analyze the factor structure of the Neck Disability Index through Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a symptomatic, homogeneous, neck population, with respect to pooled populations and gender subgroups. This was a secondary analysis of pooled data. A total of 1,278 symptomatic neck patients (67.5% female, median age 41 years), 803 nonspecific and 475 with whiplash-associated disorder. The Neck Disability Index was used to measure outcomes. We analyzed pooled baseline data from six independent studies of patients with neck problems who completed Neck Disability Index questionnaires at baseline. The Confirmatory Factor Analysis was considered in three scenarios: the full sample and separate sexes. Models were compared empirically for best fit. Two-factor models have good psychometric properties across both the pooled and sex subgroups. However, according to these analyses, the one-factor solution is preferable from both a statistical perspective and parsimony. The two-factor model was close to significant for the male subgroup (pfactor structure when analyzed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a pooled, homogenous sample of neck problem patients. However, a two-factor model did approach significance for male subjects where questions separated into constructs of mental and physical function. Further investigations in different conditions, subgroup and sex-specific populations are warranted. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Comparing the cardiovascular therapeutic indices of glycopyrronium and tiotropium in an integrated rat pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic and safety model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trifilieff, Alexandre; Ethell, Brian T.; Sykes, David A.; Watson, Kenny J.; Collingwood, Steve; Charlton, Steven J.; Kent, Toby C.

    2015-01-01

    Long acting inhaled muscarinic receptor antagonists, such as tiotropium, are widely used as bronchodilator therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although this class of compounds is generally considered to be safe and well tolerated in COPD patients the cardiovascular safety of tiotropium has recently been questioned. We describe a rat in vivo model that allows the concurrent assessment of muscarinic antagonist potency, bronchodilator efficacy and a potential for side effects, and we use this model to compare tiotropium with NVA237 (glycopyrronium bromide), a recently approved inhaled muscarinic antagonist for COPD. Anaesthetized Brown Norway rats were dosed intratracheally at 1 or 6 h prior to receiving increasing doses of intravenous methacholine. Changes in airway resistance and cardiovascular function were recorded and therapeutic indices were calculated against the ED 50 values for the inhibition of methacholine-induced bronchoconstriction. At both time points studied, greater therapeutic indices for hypotension and bradycardia were observed with glycopyrronium (19.5 and 28.5 fold at 1 h; > 200 fold at 6 h) than with tiotropium (1.5 and 4.2 fold at 1 h; 4.6 and 5.5 fold at 6 h). Pharmacokinetic, protein plasma binding and rat muscarinic receptor binding properties for both compounds were determined and used to generate an integrated model of systemic M 2 muscarinic receptor occupancy, which predicted significantly higher M 2 receptor blockade at ED 50 doses with tiotropium than with glycopyrronium. In our preclinical model there was an improved safety profile for glycopyrronium when compared with tiotropium. - Highlights: • We use an in vivo rat model to study CV safety of inhaled muscarinic antagonists. • We integrate protein and receptor binding and PK of tiotropium and glycopyrrolate. • At ED 50 doses for bronchoprotection we model systemic M 2 receptor occupancy. • Glycopyrrolate demonstrates lower M 2 occupancy at

  14. Statin Selection in Qatar Based on Multi-indication Pharmacotherapeutic Multi-criteria Scoring Model, and Clinician Preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Badriyeh, Daoud; Fahey, Michael; Alabbadi, Ibrahim; Al-Khal, Abdullatif; Zaidan, Manal

    2015-12-01

    Statin selection for the largest hospital formulary in Qatar is not systematic, not comparative, and does not consider the multi-indication nature of statins. There are no reports in the literature of multi-indication-based comparative scoring models of statins or of statin selection criteria weights that are based primarily on local clinicians' preferences and experiences. This study sought to comparatively evaluate statins for first-line therapy in Qatar, and to quantify the economic impact of this. An evidence-based, multi-indication, multi-criteria pharmacotherapeutic model was developed for the scoring of statins from the perspective of the main health care provider in Qatar. The literature and an expert panel informed the selection criteria of statins. Relative weighting of selection criteria was based on the input of the relevant local clinician population. Statins were comparatively scored based on literature evidence, with those exceeding a defined scoring threshold being recommended for use. With 95% CI and 5% margin of error, the scoring model was successfully developed. Selection criteria comprised 28 subcriteria under the following main criteria: clinical efficacy, best publish evidence and experience, adverse effects, drug interaction, dosing time, and fixed dose combination availability. Outcome measures for multiple indications were related to effects on LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, total cholesterol, and C-reactive protein. Atorvastatin, pravastatin, and rosuvastatin exceeded defined pharmacotherapeutic thresholds. Atorvastatin and pravastatin were recommended as first-line use and rosuvastatin as a nonformulary alternative. It was estimated that this would produce a 17.6% cost savings in statins expenditure. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the evaluation's outcomes against input uncertainties. Incorporating a comparative evaluation of statins in Qatari practices based on a locally developed, transparent, multi-indication

  15. What if Things Get Worse? Really Grand Challenges for Modeling and Simulation in a Risky and Complex World or Modeling and Simulation for the "Greater Good"?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fifrey, Priscilla

    2010-01-01

    Today Modeling and Simulation-- ---as an important practice or industry or area of expertise ----- is at a complex crossroad - a sort of cyber-highway--where these complexities meet-technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical and cultural. They may converge or collide. Let's not kid ourselves. It is all too much for anyone person or organization Malcolm Gladwell said it. "We have constructed a world in which the potential for high tech catastrophe is embedded in the fabric of everyday life." We are surrounded by problems that scream at us from our television, Internet and social networks along with billboards and protest signs. We face not just high tech catastrophes but, also, landslides, earthquakes, tornados, floods and hurricanes and large-scale criminality. Evil, war, famine and pestilence have not gone away. It is all too much to think about. My friend, George Peabody, who taught me everything I know about power said that addressing such issues requires that we constantly build our network, information resources and the credibility and visibility of our work. That is how we will build the power of simulation so it can change the world --even maybe, save it. We need all the help we can get and give one another because our human early warning systems appear to be out of kilter. We seem to have trouble imagining how small failings can continue to lead to catastrophic disaster. Think about O-rings and blowout preventers. One is reminded of the old nursery rhyme, "For want of a nail, a shoe was lost! for want of a shoe the horse was lost! for want of a rider the battle was lost and so the kingdom fell." Although the investigation will take more time for real answers, it is worrisome that a rig worker reported to the BBC that-- weeks before the explosion of Deep Ocean Horizon. -he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment -the Control Pod of the blowout preventer which has giant shears designed to cut and seal off the well's main pipe. With both

  16. A holistic model for the selection of environmental assessment indicators to assess the impact of industrialization on indigenous health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryzanowski, Julie A; McIntyre, Lynn

    2011-01-01

    Mainstream environmental assessment (EA) methodologies often inadequately address health, social and cultural impacts of concern for Canadian indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Our objective is to present a holistic, culturally-appropriate framework for the selection of indigenous health indicators for baseline health assessment, impact prediction, or monitoring of impacts over time. We used a critical population health approach to explore the determinants of health and health inequities in indigenous communities and conceptualize the pathways by which industrialization affects these determinants. We integrated and extended key elements from three indigenous health frameworks into a new holistic model for the selection of indigenous EA indicators. The holistic model conceptualizes individual and community determinants of health within external social, economic and political contexts and thus provides a comprehensive framework for selecting indicators of indigenous health. Indigenous health is the product of interactions among multiple determinants of health and contexts. Potential applications are discussed using case study examples involving indigenous communities affected by industrialization. Industrialization can worsen indigenous health inequities by perpetuating the health, social and cultural impacts of historic environmental dispossession. To mitigate impacts, EA should explicitly recognize linkages between environmental dispossession and the determinants of health and health inequities and meaningfully involve indigenous communities in the process.

  17. Poor transferability of species distribution models for a pelagic predator, the grey petrel, indicates contrasting habitat preferences across ocean basins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leigh G Torres

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are increasingly applied in conservation management to predict suitable habitat for poorly known populations. High predictive performance of SDMs is evident in validations performed within the model calibration area (interpolation, but few studies have assessed SDM transferability to novel areas (extrapolation, particularly across large spatial scales or pelagic ecosystems. We performed rigorous SDM validation tests on distribution data from three populations of a long-ranging marine predator, the grey petrel Procellaria cinerea, to assess model transferability across the Southern Hemisphere (25-65°S. Oceanographic data were combined with tracks of grey petrels from two remote sub-Antarctic islands (Antipodes and Kerguelen using boosted regression trees to generate three SDMs: one for each island population, and a combined model. The predictive performance of these models was assessed using withheld tracking data from within the model calibration areas (interpolation, and from a third population, Marion Island (extrapolation. Predictive performance was assessed using k-fold cross validation and point biserial correlation. The two population-specific SDMs included the same predictor variables and suggested birds responded to the same broad-scale oceanographic influences. However, all model validation tests, including of the combined model, determined strong interpolation but weak extrapolation capabilities. These results indicate that habitat use reflects both its availability and bird preferences, such that the realized distribution patterns differ for each population. The spatial predictions by the three SDMs were compared with tracking data and fishing effort to demonstrate the conservation pitfalls of extrapolating SDMs outside calibration regions. This exercise revealed that SDM predictions would have led to an underestimate of overlap with fishing effort and potentially misinformed bycatch mitigation

  18. Construction of a GeogDetector-based model system to indicate the potential occurrence of grasshoppers in Inner Mongolia steppe habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, J; Zhang, N; Gexigeduren; He, B; Liu, C-Y; Li, Y; Zhang, H-Y; Chen, X-Y; Lin, H

    2015-06-01

    Grasshopper plagues have seriously disturbed grassland ecosystems in Inner Mongolia, China. The accurate prediction of grasshopper infestations and control of grasshopper plagues have become urgent needs. We sampled 234, 342, 335, and 369 plots in Xianghuangqi County of Xilingol League in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively, and measured the density of the most dominant grasshopper species, Oedaleus decorus asiaticus, and the latitude, longitude, and associated relatively stable habitat factors at each plot. We used Excel-GeogDetector software to explore the effects of individual habitat factors and the two-factor interactions on grasshopper density. We estimated the membership of each grasshopper density rank and determined the weights of each habitat category. These results were used to construct a model system evaluating grasshopper habitat suitability. The results showed that our evaluation system was reliable and the fuzzy evaluation scores of grasshopper habitat suitability were good indicators of potential occurrence of grasshoppers. The effects of the two-factor interactions on grasshopper density were greater than the effects of any individual factors. O. d. asiaticus was most likely to be found at elevations of 1300-1400 m, flat terrain or slopes of 4-6°, typical chestnut soil with 70-80% sand content in the top 5 cm of soil, and medium-coverage grassland. The species preferred temperate bunchgrass steppe dominated by Stipa krylovii and Cleistogenes squarrosa. These findings may be used to improve models to predict grasshopper occurrence and to develop management guidelines to control grasshopper plagues by changing habitats.

  19. Data-driven modeling of sleep EEG and EOG reveals characteristics indicative of pre-Parkinson's and Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Julie A E; Zoetmulder, Marielle; Koch, Henriette; Frandsen, Rune; Arvastson, Lars; Christensen, Søren R; Jennum, Poul; Sorensen, Helge B D

    2014-09-30

    Manual scoring of sleep relies on identifying certain characteristics in polysomnograph (PSG) signals. However, these characteristics are disrupted in patients with neurodegenerative diseases. This study evaluates sleep using a topic modeling and unsupervised learning approach to identify sleep topics directly from electroencephalography (EEG) and electrooculography (EOG). PSG data from control subjects were used to develop an EOG and an EEG topic model. The models were applied to PSG data from 23 control subjects, 25 patients with periodic leg movements (PLMs), 31 patients with idiopathic REM sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) and 36 patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). The data were divided into training and validation datasets and features reflecting EEG and EOG characteristics based on topics were computed. The most discriminative feature subset for separating iRBD/PD and PLM/controls was estimated using a Lasso-regularized regression model. The features with highest discriminability were the number and stability of EEG topics linked to REM and N3, respectively. Validation of the model indicated a sensitivity of 91.4% and a specificity of 68.8% when classifying iRBD/PD patients. The topics showed visual accordance with the manually scored sleep stages, and the features revealed sleep characteristics containing information indicative of neurodegeneration. This study suggests that the amount of N3 and the ability to maintain NREM and REM sleep have potential as early PD biomarkers. Data-driven analysis of sleep may contribute to the evaluation of neurodegenerative patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A Capacity-Restraint Transit Assignment Model When a Predetermination Method Indicates the Invalidity of Time Independence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyang Ding

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The statistical independence of time of every two adjacent bus links plays a crucial role in deciding the feasibility of using many mathematical models to analyze urban transit networks. Traditional research generally ignores the time independence that acts as the ground of their models. Assumption is usually made that time independence of every two adjacent links is sound. This is, however, actually groundless and probably causes problematic conclusions reached by corresponding models. Many transit assignment models such as multinomial probit-based models lose their effects when the time independence is not valid. In this paper, a simple method to predetermine the time independence is proposed. Based on the predetermination method, a modified capacity-restraint transit assignment method aimed at engineering practice is put forward and tested through a small contrived network and a case study in Nanjing city, China, respectively. It is found that the slope of regression equation between the mean and standard deviation of normal distribution acts as the indicator of time independence at the same time. Besides, our modified assignment method performs better than the traditional one with more reasonable results while keeping the property of simplicity well.

  1. Further steps in the modeling of behavioural crowd dynamics, good news for safe handling. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopoff, Damián A.

    2016-09-01

    The recent review paper [4] constitutes a valuable contribution on the understanding, modeling and simulation of crowd dynamics in extreme situations. It provides a very comprehensive revision about the complexity features of the system under consideration, scaling and the consequent justification of the used methods. In particular, macro and microscopic models have so far been used to model crowd dynamics [9] and authors appropriately explain that working at the mesoscale is a good choice to deal with the heterogeneous behaviour of walkers as well as with the difficulty of their deterministic identification. In this way, methods based on the kinetic theory and statistical dynamics are employed, more precisely the so-called kinetic theory for active particles [7]. This approach has successfully been applied in the modeling of several complex dynamics, with recent applications to learning [2,8] that constitutes the key to understand communication and is of great importance in social dynamics and behavioral sciences.

  2. Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H Eugene

    2011-04-01

    We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes "bad news" for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

  3. Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2011-04-01

    We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes “bad news” for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

  4. Modeling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichstein, Markus; Rey, Ana; Freibauer, Annette; Tenhunen, John; Valentini, Riccardo; Banza, Joao; Casals, Pere; Cheng, Yufu; Grünzweig, Jose M.; Irvine, James; Joffre, Richard; Law, Beverly E.; Loustau, Denis; Miglietta, Franco; Oechel, Walter; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Pereira, Joao S.; Peressotti, Alessandro; Ponti, Francesca; Qi, Ye; Rambal, Serge; Rayment, Mark; Romanya, Joan; Rossi, Federica; Tedeschi, Vanessa; Tirone, Giampiero; Xu, Ming; Yakir, Dan

    2003-12-01

    Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, interannual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature, and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g., leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical nonlinear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content, and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and intersite variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 μmol m-2 s-1. The parameterized model exhibits the following principal properties: (1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity, half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. (2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. (3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly timescale, we employed the approach by [2002] that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T&P model). While this model was able to

  5. Modelling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichstein, M.; Rey, A.; Freibauer, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Valentini, R.; Soil Respiration Synthesis Team

    2003-04-01

    Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g. leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical non-linear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and inter-site variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 µmol m-2 s-1. The parameterised model exhibits the following principal properties: 1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. 2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. 3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly time-scale we employed the approach by Raich et al. (2002, Global Change Biol. 8, 800-812) that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T&P-model

  6. Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

    2009-04-01

    Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

  7. What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference? Results from ISI-MIP the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, K.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. Over 25 climate impact modelling teams from around the world, working within the agriculture, water, biomes, infrastructure and health sectors, are collaborating to find answers to the question "What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference?". The analysis is based on common, bias-corrected climate projections, and socio-economic pathways. The first, fast-tracked phase of the ISI-MIP has a focus on global impact models. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. Novel metrics, developed to emphasize societal impacts, will be used to identify regional 'hot-spots' of climate change impacts, as well as to quantify the cross-sectoral impact of the increasing frequency of extreme events in future climates. We present here first results from the Fast-Track phase of the project covering impact simulations in the biomes, agriculture and water sectors, in which the societal impacts of climate change are quantified for different levels of global warming. We also discuss the design of the scenario set-up and impact indicators chosen to suit the unique cross-sectoral, multi-model nature of the project.

  8. Evaluation of skill at simulating heatwave and heat-humidity indices in Global and Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, J. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Lewis, S. C.; Sherwood, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    A wide body of literature now establishes the harm of extreme heat on human health, and work is now emerging on the projection of future health impacts. However, heat-health relationships vary across different populations (Gasparrini et al. 2015), so accurate simulation of regional climate is an important component of joint health impact projection. Here, we evaluate the ability of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 and the NARCliM Regional Climate Model to reproduce a selection of 15 health-relevant heatwave and heat-humidity indices over the historical period (1990-2005) using the Perkins skill score (Perkins et al. 2007) in five Australian cities. We explore the reasons for poor model skill, comparing these modelled distributions to both weather station observations and gridded reanalysis data. Finally, we show changes in the modelled distributions from the highest-performing models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios and discuss the implications of simulated heat stress for future climate change adaptation. ReferencesGasparrini, Antonio, Yuming Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Eric Lavigne, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Aurelio Tobias, et al. "Mortality Risk Attributable to High and Low Ambient Temperature: A Multicountry Observational Study." The Lancet 386, no. 9991 (July 31, 2015): 369-75. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman, N. J. Holbrook, and J. McAneney. "Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models' Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions." Journal of Climate 20, no. 17 (September 1, 2007): 4356-76. doi:10.1175/JCLI4253.1.

  9. A hybrid feature selection and health indicator construction scheme for delay-time-based degradation modelling of rolling element bearings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bin; Deng, Congying; Zhang, Yi

    2018-03-01

    Rolling element bearings are mechanical components used frequently in most rotating machinery and they are also vulnerable links representing the main source of failures in such systems. Thus, health condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings have long been studied to improve operational reliability and maintenance efficiency of rotatory machines. Over the past decade, prognosis that enables forewarning of failure and estimation of residual life attracted increasing attention. To accurately and efficiently predict failure of the rolling element bearing, the degradation requires to be well represented and modelled. For this purpose, degradation of the rolling element bearing is analysed with the delay-time-based model in this paper. Also, a hybrid feature selection and health indicator construction scheme is proposed for extraction of the bearing health relevant information from condition monitoring sensor data. Effectiveness of the presented approach is validated through case studies on rolling element bearing run-to-failure experiments.

  10. Improved Geothermometry Through Multivariate Reaction-path Modeling and Evaluation of Geomicrobiological Influences on Geochemical Temperature Indicators: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattson, Earl [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Fujita, Yoshiko [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); McLing, Travis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Neupane, Ghanashyam [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Palmer, Carl [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Reed, David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Thompson, Vicki [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-03-01

    The project was aimed at demonstrating that the geothermometric predictions can be improved through the application of multi-element reaction path modeling that accounts for lithologic and tectonic settings, while also accounting for biological influences on geochemical temperature indicators. The limited utilization of chemical signatures by individual traditional geothermometer in the development of reservoir temperature estimates may have been constraining their reliability for evaluation of potential geothermal resources. This project, however, was intended to build a geothermometry tool which can integrate multi-component reaction path modeling with process-optimization capability that can be applied to dilute, low-temperature water samples to consistently predict reservoir temperature within ±30 °C. The project was also intended to evaluate the extent to which microbiological processes can modulate the geochemical signals in some thermal waters and influence the geothermometric predictions.

  11. Is the cluster risk model of parental adversities better than the cumulative risk model as an indicator of childhood physical abuse?: findings from two representative community surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller-Thomson, E; Sawyer, J-L

    2014-01-01

    Screening strategies for childhood physical abuse (CPA) need to be improved in order to identify those most at risk. This study uses two regionally representative community samples to examine whether a cluster or cumulative model of risk indicators (i.e. parental divorce, parental unemployment, and parental addictions) explains a larger proportion of the variation in CPA. Data were drawn from Statistics Canada's National Population Health Survey (1994-1995) and Canadian Community Health Survey 3.1 (2005). Response rates were greater than 80% in both samples. Each survey had approximately 13,000 respondents aged 18 and over who answered questions about the above adverse childhood experiences. A gradient was shown with similar outcomes in each data set. Only 3.4% of adults who experienced none of the three risk indicators reported they had been physically abused during childhood or adolescence. The prevalence of CPA was greater among those who experienced parental divorce alone (8.3%-10.7%), parental unemployment alone (8.9%-9.7%) or parental addictions alone (18.0%-19.5%). When all three risk indicators were present, the prevalence of CPA ranged from 36.0%-41.0% and the age-sex-race adjusted odds were greater than 15 times that of individuals with none of the three risk indicators. The cluster model explained a statistically significantly larger proportion of the variation than the cumulative model although the difference between the two models was modest. For the purposes of parsimony, the cumulative model may be the better alternative. Adults who were exposed to two or more childhood risk indicators were much more likely to report that they were physically abused during their childhood than those with only one or no risk factors. Medical professionals may use this information on cumulative risk factors to more effectively target screening for potential CPA. Future research should include prospective studies. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Effective Solar Indices for Ionospheric Modeling: A Review and a Proposal for a Real-Time Regional IRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pignalberi, A.; Pezzopane, M.; Rizzi, R.; Galkin, I.

    2018-01-01

    The first part of this paper reviews methods using effective solar indices to update a background ionospheric model focusing on those employing the Kriging method to perform the spatial interpolation. Then, it proposes a method to update the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model through the assimilation of data collected by a European ionosonde network. The method, called International Reference Ionosphere UPdate (IRI UP), that can potentially operate in real time, is mathematically described and validated for the period 9-25 March 2015 (a time window including the well-known St. Patrick storm occurred on 17 March), using IRI and IRI Real Time Assimilative Model (IRTAM) models as the reference. It relies on foF2 and M(3000)F2 ionospheric characteristics, recorded routinely by a network of 12 European ionosonde stations, which are used to calculate for each station effective values of IRI indices IG_{12} and R_{12} (identified as IG_{{12{eff}}} and R_{{12{eff}}}); then, starting from this discrete dataset of values, two-dimensional (2D) maps of IG_{{12{eff}}} and R_{{12{eff}}} are generated through the universal Kriging method. Five variogram models are proposed and tested statistically to select the best performer for each effective index. Then, computed maps of IG_{{12{eff}}} and R_{{12{eff}}} are used in the IRI model to synthesize updated values of foF2 and hmF2. To evaluate the ability of the proposed method to reproduce rapid local changes that are common under disturbed conditions, quality metrics are calculated for two test stations whose measurements were not assimilated in IRI UP, Fairford (51.7°N, 1.5°W) and San Vito (40.6°N, 17.8°E), for IRI, IRI UP, and IRTAM models. The proposed method turns out to be very effective under highly disturbed conditions, with significant improvements of the foF2 representation and noticeable improvements of the hmF2 one. Important improvements have been verified also for quiet and moderately disturbed

  13. A spatial hazard model for cluster detection on continuous indicators of disease: application to somatic cell score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gay, Emilie; Senoussi, Rachid; Barnouin, Jacques

    2007-01-01

    Methods for spatial cluster detection dealing with diseases quantified by continuous variables are few, whereas several diseases are better approached by continuous indicators. For example, subclinical mastitis of the dairy cow is evaluated using a continuous marker of udder inflammation, the somatic cell score (SCS). Consequently, this study proposed to analyze spatialized risk and cluster components of herd SCS through a new method based on a spatial hazard model. The dataset included annual SCS for 34 142 French dairy herds for the year 2000, and important SCS risk factors: mean parity, percentage of winter and spring calvings, and herd size. The model allowed the simultaneous estimation of the effects of known risk factors and of potential spatial clusters on SCS, and the mapping of the estimated clusters and their range. Mean parity and winter and spring calvings were significantly associated with subclinical mastitis risk. The model with the presence of 3 clusters was highly significant, and the 3 clusters were attractive, i.e. closeness to cluster center increased the occurrence of high SCS. The three localizations were the following: close to the city of Troyes in the northeast of France; around the city of Limoges in the center-west; and in the southwest close to the city of Tarbes. The semi-parametric method based on spatial hazard modeling applies to continuous variables, and takes account of both risk factors and potential heterogeneity of the background population. This tool allows a quantitative detection but assumes a spatially specified form for clusters.

  14. The mathematical model for the investigation of different influence factors on the economic and ecological indicators of a wheel tractor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zakharchuk V.I.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problem of oil deficit and reduce emissions of harmful substances from exhaust gases of vehicles alternative motor fuels, including biodiesel may by used. Most of wheel tractors are used as technological transport in agriculture, industry and municipal services. The article aims to clarify the mathematical model to determine the effect of the type of fuel used wheeled tractors on its performance. The mathematical model of the system "operator-wheel tractor-road" for the design research impact type of fuel on harmful emissions and fuel consumption wheeled tractor, is used as technological transport during its movement for driving cycle. Driving cycle showed main modes of motion there are acceleration, motion with constant speed and deceleration. The mathematical model allows to accurately consider peculiarities of the wheel tractor as the vehicle and engine describing its characteristics by polinomial dependencies. In mathematical models specified polynomial dependences that describe the fuel supply cycle indicated torque, fuel consumption and concentrations of main harmful substances in the exhaust gases of diesel during operation on diesel and biodiesel.

  15. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  16. Doing Good Parenthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This edited collection shows that good parenthood is neither fixed nor stable. The contributors show how parenthood is equally done by men, women and children, in and through practices involving different normative guidelines. The book explores how normative layers of parenthood are constituted...... by notions such as good childhood, family ideals, national public health and educational strategies. The authors illustrate how different versions of parenthood coexist and how complex sets of actions are demanded to fulfil today’s expectations of parenthood in Western societies. This interdisciplinary book...

  17. From Goods to Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chakkol, Mehmet; Johnson, Mark; Raja, Jawwad

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to adopt service-dominant logic (SDL) to empirically explore network configurations resulting from the provision of goods, goods and services, and solutions. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a single, in-depth, exploratory case study in a truck manufacturer......: dyadic, triadic and tetradic. The extent to which different network actors contribute to value co-creation varies across the offerings. Research limitations/implications – This paper is based on a single, in-depth case study developed in one industrial context. Whilst this represents an appropriate...

  18. Comparing the cardiovascular therapeutic indices of glycopyrronium and tiotropium in an integrated rat pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic and safety model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trifilieff, Alexandre; Ethell, Brian T. [Respiratory Disease Area, Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research, Wimblehurst Road, Horsham, West Sussex RH12 5AB (United Kingdom); Sykes, David A. [Respiratory Disease Area, Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research, Wimblehurst Road, Horsham, West Sussex RH12 5AB (United Kingdom); School of Life Sciences, Queen' s Medical Centre, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2UH (United Kingdom); Watson, Kenny J.; Collingwood, Steve [Respiratory Disease Area, Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research, Wimblehurst Road, Horsham, West Sussex RH12 5AB (United Kingdom); Charlton, Steven J. [Respiratory Disease Area, Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research, Wimblehurst Road, Horsham, West Sussex RH12 5AB (United Kingdom); School of Life Sciences, Queen' s Medical Centre, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2UH (United Kingdom); Kent, Toby C., E-mail: tobykent@me.com [Respiratory Disease Area, Novartis Institutes for Biomedical Research, Wimblehurst Road, Horsham, West Sussex RH12 5AB (United Kingdom)

    2015-08-15

    Long acting inhaled muscarinic receptor antagonists, such as tiotropium, are widely used as bronchodilator therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although this class of compounds is generally considered to be safe and well tolerated in COPD patients the cardiovascular safety of tiotropium has recently been questioned. We describe a rat in vivo model that allows the concurrent assessment of muscarinic antagonist potency, bronchodilator efficacy and a potential for side effects, and we use this model to compare tiotropium with NVA237 (glycopyrronium bromide), a recently approved inhaled muscarinic antagonist for COPD. Anaesthetized Brown Norway rats were dosed intratracheally at 1 or 6 h prior to receiving increasing doses of intravenous methacholine. Changes in airway resistance and cardiovascular function were recorded and therapeutic indices were calculated against the ED{sub 50} values for the inhibition of methacholine-induced bronchoconstriction. At both time points studied, greater therapeutic indices for hypotension and bradycardia were observed with glycopyrronium (19.5 and 28.5 fold at 1 h; > 200 fold at 6 h) than with tiotropium (1.5 and 4.2 fold at 1 h; 4.6 and 5.5 fold at 6 h). Pharmacokinetic, protein plasma binding and rat muscarinic receptor binding properties for both compounds were determined and used to generate an integrated model of systemic M{sub 2} muscarinic receptor occupancy, which predicted significantly higher M{sub 2} receptor blockade at ED{sub 50} doses with tiotropium than with glycopyrronium. In our preclinical model there was an improved safety profile for glycopyrronium when compared with tiotropium. - Highlights: • We use an in vivo rat model to study CV safety of inhaled muscarinic antagonists. • We integrate protein and receptor binding and PK of tiotropium and glycopyrrolate. • At ED{sub 50} doses for bronchoprotection we model systemic M{sub 2} receptor occupancy. • Glycopyrrolate demonstrates lower M

  19. The composition of cuticular compounds indicates body parts, sex and age in the model butterfly Bicyclus anynana (Lepidoptera

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphanie eHeuskin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Chemical communication in insects’ sexual interactions is well-known to involve olfaction of volatile compounds called sex pheromones. In theory, sexual chemical communication may also involve chemicals with low or no volatility exchanged during precopulatory gustatory contacts. Yet, knowledge on this latter type of chemicals is so far mostly restricted to the Drosophila fly model. Here we provide the most comprehensive characterization to date of the cuticular chemical profile, including both volatile and non-volatile compounds, of a model butterfly, Bicyclus anynana. First, we characterized the body distribution of 103 cuticular lipids, mostly alkanes and methyl-branched alkanes, by gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC-MS. Second, we developed a multivariate statistical approach to cope with such complex chemical profiles and showed that variation in the presence or abundance of a subset of the cuticular lipids indicated body parts, and traits involved in B. anynana mate choice, namely sex and age. Third, we identified the chemical structure of the 20 most indicative compounds, which were on average more abundant (1346.4 ± 1994.6 ng; mean ± SD than other, likely less indicative, compounds (225.9 ± 507.2 ng; mean ± SD. Fourth, we showed that wings and legs displayed most of the chemical information found on the entire body of the butterflies. Fifth, we showed that non-random gustatory contacts occurred between specific male and female body parts during courtship. The body parts mostly touched by the conspecific displayed the largest between-sex differentiation in cuticular composition. Altogether, the large diversity of cuticular lipids in B. anynana, which exceeds the one of Drosophila flies, and its non-random distribution and evaluation across individuals, together suggest that gustatory information is likely exchanged during sexual interactions in Lepidoptera.

  20. Analysis of indicators of an efficiency estimation of work of the employee and the business model of the organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yury G. Odegov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In conditions of increasing competition, the problems of efficiency increase of activity of the company are significantly actualized, which directly depends on efficiency of labour activity of every employee and the implemented business model of the organization. On this basis the aim of the research is to analyze existing indicators of performance evaluation of the labour activities of both the employee and the business model of the organization.The theoretical basis of the study consists of principles of the economic theory, the works of native and foreign experts in the field of job evaluation. The information base of the research consists of economic and legal literature dealing with problems of this study, the data published in periodicals, materials of Russian scientific conferences, seminars, and Internet resources.In this article I have used and found the application of scientific methods of data collection, methods of research and methods of assessing their credibility: quantitative, comparative, logical analysis and synthesis.The modern business concern about the accumulation of wealth of shareholders, giving the company stability, growth and efficiency inevitably leads to necessity of creation and development of technologies aimed at improving the productivity of employees. The paper presents a comparative analysis of different approaches to assessing the labour effectiveness.The performance of the work is the ratio of the four essential parameters that determine the measure of efficiency of persons’ activity: the quantity and quality of result of work (a service, material product or technology in relation to spend time and cost on its production. The use of employees («performance» should be in the following way that they could achieve the planned results in the workplace. The authors have noted that to develop of technologies for the measurement of productivity it is very important to use the procedures and indicators that are

  1. A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, Marvin J.; Bertoldi, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes. - Highlights: • Impact analysis of European Union energy efficiency policy. • Harmonization of top-down energy consumption and bottom-up energy efficiency indicators. • Fixed effects models for Member States for household and manufacturing sectors and combined electricity and natural gas usage. • EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 are estimated to have saved 1136 Petajoules. • Energy savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 are 5.6 percent of 2011 combined electricity and natural gas usage.

  2. Reconsidering the "Good Divorce"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Paul R.; Kane, Jennifer B.; James, Spencer

    2011-01-01

    This study attempted to assess the notion that a "good divorce" protects children from the potential negative consequences of marital dissolution. A cluster analysis of data on postdivorce parenting from 944 families resulted in three groups: cooperative coparenting, parallel parenting, and single parenting. Children in the cooperative coparenting…

  3. GOOD GOVERNANCE AND TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans-Jürgen WAGENER

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Transformation of a totalitarian, basically administratively coordinated system into a democratic one that is coordinated predominantly by markets and competition has been triggered by, among others, the perception of a serious deficit in welfare and happiness. Public policy has a special task transforming the economic order by liberalisation, privatisation, stabilisation and the installation of institutions that are supportive for competition. After 15 years since transformation began, there are sufficiently differentiated success stories to test the hypothesis: it was good governance that is responsible for success and bad governance for failure. The empirical results support the “Lorenzetti hypothesis”: where freedom, security and trust prevail, the economy flourishes, where they are lacking, the costs of long-term investment are too high. The initial conditions of transition countries seem to be quite similar, nevertheless, even there one can discern good and bad governance. The extent of socialist lawfulness, planning security, cronyism and corruption differed widely between East Berlin and Tashkent. And a good deal of such variations can be found in the pre-socialist history of these countries. However, the main conclusion is that the co-evolution hypothesis states that both, welfare and good governance, go together.

  4. Good Apple Homework Helper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipriano, Jeri S.

    This book, designed for students in grades 4 to 6, provides advice to help them do homework independently and successfully. Part 1, "Developing Good Habits," presents exercises and tips on organization and time management, including a self-inventory of homework habits, assistance in goal setting, and designing a personal schedule. Part 2, "Getting…

  5. Ecology and the Good

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, James W.

    1971-01-01

    Our value system relating to the natural sciences is examined for its acceptability and worthiness. Scrutinized are the cognitive meanings about values, validity of values, subjective and cultural relativism, the good of objective realities, and cooperation with natural forces and God. (BL)

  6. 'The Good Citizen’

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Offersen, Sara Marie Hebsgaard; Vedsted, Peter; Andersen, Rikke Sand

    2017-01-01

    the Danish welfare state and the middle-class popula- tion is embodied in a responsibility for individual health. Overall, we identify a striving to be a ‘good citizen’; this entails confl icting moral possibilities in relation to experiencing, interpreting and acting on bodily sensations. We examine how...

  7. A Comparison between Discrimination Indices and Item-Response Theory Using the Rasch Model in a Clinical Course Written Examination of a Medical School.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong Cook; Kim, Kwang Sig

    2012-03-01

    The reliability of test is determined by each items' characteristics. Item analysis is achieved by classical test theory and item response theory. The purpose of the study was to compare the discrimination indices with item response theory using the Rasch model. Thirty-one 4th-year medical school students participated in the clinical course written examination, which included 22 A-type items and 3 R-type items. Point biserial correlation coefficient (C(pbs)) was compared to method of extreme group (D), biserial correlation coefficient (C(bs)), item-total correlation coefficient (C(it)), and corrected item-total correlation coeffcient (C(cit)). Rasch model was applied to estimate item difficulty and examinee's ability and to calculate item fit statistics using joint maximum likelihood. Explanatory power (r2) of Cpbs is decreased in the following order: C(cit) (1.00), C(it) (0.99), C(bs) (0.94), and D (0.45). The ranges of difficulty logit and standard error and ability logit and standard error were -0.82 to 0.80 and 0.37 to 0.76, -3.69 to 3.19 and 0.45 to 1.03, respectively. Item 9 and 23 have outfit > or =1.3. Student 1, 5, 7, 18, 26, 30, and 32 have fit > or =1.3. C(pbs), C(cit), and C(it) are good discrimination parameters. Rasch model can estimate item difficulty parameter and examinee's ability parameter with standard error. The fit statistics can identify bad items and unpredictable examinee's responses.

  8. Irrigation Requirement Estimation using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling; A Case Study for Oran, Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, L.; Imhoff, M.L.; Franks, S.

    2008-01-01

    Human demand for food influences the water cycle through diversion and extraction of fresh water needed to support agriculture. Future population growth and economic development alone will substantially increase water demand and much of it for agricultural uses. For many semi-arid lands, socio-economic shifts are likely to exacerbate changes in climate as a driver of future water supply and demand. For these areas in particular, where the balance between water supply and demand is fragile, variations in regional climate can have potentially predictable effect on agricultural production. Satellite data and biophysically-based models provide a powerful method to quantify the interactions between local climate, plant growth and water resource requirements. In irrigated agricultural lands, satellite observations indicate high vegetation density while the precipitation amount indicates otherwise. This inconsistency between the observed precipitation and the observed canopy leaf density triggers the possibility that the observed high leaf density is due to an alternate source of water, irrigation. We explore an inverse process approach using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), climatological data, and the NASA's Simple Biosphere model, SiB2, to quantitatively assess water demand in a semi-arid agricultural land by constraining the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium (balance between vegetation and prevailing local climate) and nonequilibrium (water added through irrigation) conditions. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated lands vary from equilibrium conditions is related to the amount of irrigation water used. We added water using two distribution methods: The first method adds water on top of the canopy and is a proxy for the traditional spray irrigation. The second method allows water to be applied directly into the soil layer and serves as proxy for drip irrigation. Our approach indicates that over

  9. Study of the Eco-Economic Indicators by Means of the New Version of the Merge Integrated Model Part 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Vadimovich Digas

    2016-03-01

    economic development of Russia and the indicators of their ecological efficiency. Calculations show that Russia has reserves allowing its participation in the nature protection initiatives consisting in the non-exceedance of the emissions levels of 1990 by 2020−2025. At the same time, a goal of increasing the ecological efficiency of the Russian gross domestic product is relevant and demands to address this matter urgently. We suppose that modelling results may be in demand by the competent bodies taking managerial decisions.

  10. Study of the Eco-Economic Indicators by Means of the New Version of the Merge Integrated Model. Part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Vadimovich Digas

    2015-12-01

    indicators of their ecological efficiency. Calculations show that Russia has reserves allowing its participation in the nature protection initiatives consisting in the nonexceedance of the emissions levels of 1990 by 2020−2025. At the same time, a goal of increasing the ecological efficiency of the Russian GDP is relevant and demands to address this matter urgently. We suppose that modelling results may be in demand by the competent bodies taking managerial decisions.

  11. Support vector regression model of wastewater bioreactor performance using microbial community diversity indices: effect of stress and bioaugmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshan, Hari; Goyal, Manish K; Falk, Michael W; Wuertz, Stefan

    2014-04-15

    The relationship between microbial community structure and function has been examined in detail in natural and engineered environments, but little work has been done on using microbial community information to predict function. We processed microbial community and operational data from controlled experiments with bench-scale bioreactor systems to predict reactor process performance. Four membrane-operated sequencing batch reactors treating synthetic wastewater were operated in two experiments to test the effects of (i) the toxic compound 3-chloroaniline (3-CA) and (ii) bioaugmentation targeting 3-CA degradation, on the sludge microbial community in the reactors. In the first experiment, two reactors were treated with 3-CA and two reactors were operated as controls without 3-CA input. In the second experiment, all four reactors were additionally bioaugmented with a Pseudomonas putida strain carrying a plasmid with a portion of the pathway for 3-CA degradation. Molecular data were generated from terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis targeting the 16S rRNA and amoA genes from the sludge community. The electropherograms resulting from these T-RFs were used to calculate diversity indices - community richness, dynamics and evenness - for the domain Bacteria as well as for ammonia-oxidizing bacteria in each reactor over time. These diversity indices were then used to train and test a support vector regression (SVR) model to predict reactor performance based on input microbial community indices and operational data. Considering the diversity indices over time and across replicate reactors as discrete values, it was found that, although bioaugmentation with a bacterial strain harboring a subset of genes involved in the degradation of 3-CA did not bring about 3-CA degradation, it significantly affected the community as measured through all three diversity indices in both the general bacterial community and the ammonia-oxidizer community (

  12. Learn good from bad: Effects of good and bad neighbors in spatial prisoners' dilemma games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Peng

    2015-10-01

    Cooperation is vital for the human society and this study focuses on how to promote cooperation. In our stratification model, there exist three classes: two minorities are elites who are prone to cooperate and scoundrels who are born to defect; one majority is the class of common people. Agents of these three classes interact with each other on a square lattice. Commons' cooperation and its factors are investigated. Contradicting our common sense, it indicates that elites play a negative role while scoundrels play a positive one in promoting commons' cooperation. Besides, effects of good and bad neighbors vary with temptation. When the temptation is smaller the positive effect is able to overcome the negative effect, but the later prevails when the temptation is larger. It concludes that common people are more prone to cooperate in harsh environment with bad neighbors, and a better environment with good neighbors merely leads to laziness and free riding of commons.

  13. The use of sensory perception indicators for improving the characterization and modelling of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roxo, Sónia; de Almeida, José António; Matias, Filipa Vieira; Mata-Lima, Herlander; Barbosa, Sofia

    2016-03-01

    This paper proposes a multistep approach for creating a 3D stochastic model of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in potentially polluted soils of a deactivated oil storage site by using chemical analysis results as primary or hard data and classes of sensory perception variables as secondary or soft data. First, the statistical relationship between the sensory perception variables (e.g. colour, odour and oil-water reaction) and TPH grade is analysed, after which the sensory perception variable exhibiting the highest correlation is selected (oil-water reaction in this case study). The probabilities of cells belonging to classes of oil-water reaction are then estimated for the entire soil volume using indicator kriging. Next, local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell are computed, combining the probabilities of belonging to a specific sensory perception indicator class and conditional to the simulated values of TPH grade. Finally, simulated images of TPH grade are generated by using the P-field simulation algorithm, utilising the local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell. The set of simulated TPH values allows several calculations to be performed, such as average values, local uncertainties and the probability of the TPH grade of the soil exceeding a specific threshold value.

  14. A Real-Time Recording Model of Key Indicators for Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions of Sustainable Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Wu

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Buildings’ sustainability is one of the crucial parts for achieving urban sustainability. Applied to buildings, life-cycle assessment encompasses the analysis and assessment of the environmental effects of building materials, components and assemblies throughout the entire life of the building construction, use and demolition. Estimate of carbon emissions is essential and crucial for an accurate and reasonable life-cycle assessment. Addressing the need for more research into integrating analysis of real-time and automatic recording of key indicators for a more accurate calculation and comparison, this paper aims to design a real-time recording model of these crucial indicators concerning the calculation and estimation of energy use and carbon emissions of buildings based on a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID-based system. The architecture of the RFID-based carbon emission recording/tracking system, which contains four functional layers including data record layer, data collection/update layer, data aggregation layer and data sharing/backup layer, is presented. Each of these layers is formed by RFID or network devices and sub-systems that operate at a specific level. In the end, a proof-of-concept system is developed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed architecture and demonstrate the feasibility of the design. This study would provide the technical solution for real-time recording system of building carbon emissions and thus is of great significance and importance to improve urban sustainability.

  15. A Real-Time Recording Model of Key Indicators for Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions of Sustainable Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Weiwei; Yang, Huanjia; Chew, David; Hou, Yanhong; Li, Qiming

    2014-01-01

    Buildings' sustainability is one of the crucial parts for achieving urban sustainability. Applied to buildings, life-cycle assessment encompasses the analysis and assessment of the environmental effects of building materials, components and assemblies throughout the entire life of the building construction, use and demolition. Estimate of carbon emissions is essential and crucial for an accurate and reasonable life-cycle assessment. Addressing the need for more research into integrating analysis of real-time and automatic recording of key indicators for a more accurate calculation and comparison, this paper aims to design a real-time recording model of these crucial indicators concerning the calculation and estimation of energy use and carbon emissions of buildings based on a Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)-based system. The architecture of the RFID-based carbon emission recording/tracking system, which contains four functional layers including data record layer, data collection/update layer, data aggregation layer and data sharing/backup layer, is presented. Each of these layers is formed by RFID or network devices and sub-systems that operate at a specific level. In the end, a proof-of-concept system is developed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed architecture and demonstrate the feasibility of the design. This study would provide the technical solution for real-time recording system of building carbon emissions and thus is of great significance and importance to improve urban sustainability. PMID:24831109

  16. Empirical Productivity Indices and Indicators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.M. Balk (Bert)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical measurement of productivity change (or difference) by means of indices and indicators starts with the ex post profit/loss accounts of a production unit. Key concepts are profit, leading to indicators, and profitability, leading to indices. The main task for the productivity

  17. Luggage and shipped goods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogel, H.; Haller, D.

    2007-01-01

    Summary: Purpose: Control of luggage and shipped goods are frequently carried out. The possibilities of X-ray technology shall be demonstrated. Materials and methods: There are different imaging techniques. The main concepts are transmission imaging, backscatter imaging, computed tomography, and dual energy imaging and the combination of different methods The images come from manufacturers and personal collections. Results: The search concerns mainly, weapons, explosives, and drugs; furthermore animals, and stolen goods, Special problems offer the control of letters and the detection of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED). Conclusion: One has to expect that controls will increase and that imaging with X-rays will have their part. Pattern recognition software will be used for analysis enforced by economy and by demand for higher efficiency - man and computer will produce more security than man alone

  18. Meet the good child

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gram, Malene; Grønhøj, Alice

    2016-01-01

    This article explores ‘childing’ pratices in relation to family supermarket shopping in Denmark. ‘Parenting’ practices have been explored for long but little attention has been given to how children strive to be ‘good’ children, who live up to certain standards and recognize what they perceive...... to be appropriate child and parental behavior. The study takes a practice theoretical perspective, building on previous research on family consumption, and draws empirically on 35 interviews with 5–6 year-olds and 13 family interviews. Findings show that the children recognize the position of ‘the good child......’ and most often prefer to take on this position, which is confirmed by their parents. The children can describe how ‘the good child’—in their eyes—should behave. They prefer consensus and not being embarrassing or embarrassed. The study concludes that the children are strongly immersed in social norms...

  19. Proposal of performance indicators/model for Operational Readiness Verification (ORV) at restart after a planned shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik; Nygren, Magnus

    2005-12-01

    The objectives of the study reported here were to propose a model that can be used in the analysis of possible future ORV-related events and to outline a set of performance indicators that can be used by the inspectorate to assess a utility's level of readiness if an ORV-event should take place. Together the two objectives serve to improve the inspectorate's ability to ensure that the utilities maintain an adequate capability to respond. The background for the current study is the nine ORV events that occurred in Sweden between 1995- 1998, as well as the findings of a previous study of safety during outage and restart of nuclear power plants project. This study found that the three levels or types of tests that occur in ORV were used according to need rather than according to a predefined arrangement or procedure, and that tasks were adapted relative to the different types of embedding and the degree of correspondence between nominal and actual ORV. The organisation's coping with the complexity of ORV was discussed by the relation between expectations and surprises, how planning was used as control, attention to details, and the practices of shift changes. It is a truism that accidents are analysed and interpreted relative to a commonly accepted understanding of their nature. This understanding is, however, relative rather than absolute, and has changed significantly during the last decade. In the 1990s, accidents were analysed step by step, and explanations and recommendations therefore emphasised specific rather than generic solutions. The present study illustrates this by going through the responses to the nine ORV events. Following that, the nine events are analysed anew using a contemporary understanding of accidents (a systemic model), which emphasises that incidents more often arise from context induced performance variability than from failures of people. The alternative interpretation provided by a systemic model is illustrated by a detailed analysis of

  20. Trees are good, but…

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.G. McPherson; F. Ferrini

    2010-01-01

    We know that “trees are good,” and most people believe this to be true. But if this is so, why are so many trees neglected, and so many tree wells empty? An individual’s attitude toward trees may result from their firsthand encounters with specific trees. Understanding how attitudes about trees are shaped, particularly aversion to trees, is critical to the business of...