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Sample records for increase long-term variability

  1. Relation of increased short-term variability of QT interval to congenital long-QT syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinterseer, Martin; Beckmann, Britt-Maria; Thomsen, Morten B

    2009-01-01

    Apart from clinical symptoms the diagnosis and risk stratification in long-QT syndrome (LQTS) is usually based on the surface electrocardiogram. Studies have indicated that not only prolongation of the QT interval but also an increased short-term variability of QT interval (STV(QT)) is a marker...... that an STV(QT) of 4.9 ms was the optimal cut-off value to predict mutation carriers. When incorporating an STV(QT) >4.9 ms for those whose QTc interval was within the normal limits, sensitivity to distinguish mutation carriers increased to 83% with a specificity of 68%, so that another 15 mutation carriers...

  2. Increasing Juniperus virginiana L. pollen in the Tulsa atmosphere: long-term trends, variability, and influence of meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flonard, Michaela; Lo, Esther; Levetin, Estelle

    2018-02-01

    In the Tulsa area, the Cupressaceae is largely represented by eastern red cedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.). The encroachment of this species into the grasslands of Oklahoma has been well documented, and it is believed this trend will continue. The pollen is known to be allergenic and is a major component of the Tulsa atmosphere in February and March. This study examined airborne Cupressaceae pollen data from 1987 to 2016 to determine long-term trends, pollen seasonal variability, and influence of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations. Pollen was collected through means of a Burkard sampler and analyzed with microscopy. Daily pollen concentrations and yearly pollen metrics showed a high degree of variability. In addition, there were significant increases over time in the seasonal pollen index and in peak concentrations. These increases parallel the increasing population of J. virginiana in the region. Pollen data were split into pre- and post-peak categories for statistical analyses, which revealed significant differences in correlations of the two datasets when analyzed with meteorological conditions. While temperature and dew point, among others were significant in both datasets, other factors, like relative humidity, were significant only in one dataset. Analyses using wind direction showed that southerly and southwestern winds contributed to increased pollen concentrations. This study confirms that J. virginiana pollen has become an increasing risk for individuals sensitive to this pollen and emphasizes the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in other areas.

  3. Does tropical forest fragmentation increase long-term variability of butterfly communities?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allison K Leidner

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism, and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics.

  4. Does Tropical Forest Fragmentation Increase Long-Term Variability of Butterfly Communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidner, Allison K.; Haddad, Nick M.; Lovejoy, Thomas E.

    2010-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism), and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration) did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics. PMID:20224772

  5. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

  6. Aspects of long-term variability in sun and stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skumanich, A.; Eddy, J.A.

    1981-01-01

    Evidence of long-term solar variability is reviewed, including historical data and the tree-ring record of radiocarbon. Epochs of suppressed activity like the Maunder Minimum are shown to be frequent occurences of the last several thousand years, but without no obvious period of recurrence. Weak evidence exists for the 11-year cycle as early as Medieval times, although with insufficient accuracy to establish long-term phase stability. (orig.)

  7. Long-term variability of the spring taryn-aufeises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. R. Alekseev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term variability of large taryn-aufeises was studied for several decades in different regions of the USA (Alaska and Russia (Chukotka, Kolyma, Southern Yakutia, Transbaikalia, and Eastern Sayan. Differences between volumes of individual ice massifs and the recorded maximal values change from 2–3 to 95–100%, and they do not depend on sizes of ice fields and their geographical locations. No statistically significant dependence of the aufeis volumes on the atmospheric precipitation amount and the air temperature was revealed in the most of the above areas. However, a general tendency for decreasing of the annual maxima of the ice reserves due to the climate warming was noticed. The long-term variations of the aufeises show existence of cycles of increase and decrease in their maximum sizes with their durations of 3, 7 and 11 years with the 25–30% amplitude of variations relative to the mean long-term values. In the Arctic areas, some of the giant aufeises do not melt completely during the summer and remain for a next winter. The volume of pereletoks (shortterm permafrost varies within the range of 5–25%, averaging 16% of the spring ice reserves. In the southern geocryological zone, a clearly pronounced dependence of activity of the aufeis processes on the snow thickness was found: when the snow depth increased from 70 to 100 cm, volumes of aufeises decreased by a factor of three, and the aufeises disappeared completely under the thickness larger 120 cm. It should be noted that the processes producing the aufeis-forming sources of subsurface water, and the factors of their layered-ice accumulation remain almost unexplored.

  8. [Short-term and long-term fetal heart rate variability after amnioinfusion treatment of oligohydramnios complicated pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machalski, T; Sikora, J; Bakon, I; Magnucki, J; Grzesiak-Kubica, E; Szkodny, E

    2001-12-01

    Results of computerised analysis of cardiotocograms obtained in the group of 21 pregnancies complicated by idiopathic oligohydramnios are presented in the study. Amnioinfusion procedures were administered serially in local anesthesia with ultrasound and colour Doppler control on the base of oligohydramnios criteria by Phelan. The analysis was based on KOMPOR software created by ITAM Zabrze based on PC computer connected to Hewlett-Packard Series 50A cardiotocograph. Significant short-term variability increase just after amnioinfusion procedure from 5.55 ms to 8.24 ms and after 24 hours up to 7.25 ms was found, while significant long-term variability values changes were not observed.

  9. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  10. Changes in heart rate variability are associated with expression of short-term and long-term contextual and cued fear memories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Liu

    Full Text Available Heart physiology is a highly useful indicator for measuring not only physical states, but also emotional changes in animals. Yet changes of heart rate variability during fear conditioning have not been systematically studied in mice. Here, we investigated changes in heart rate and heart rate variability in both short-term and long-term contextual and cued fear conditioning. We found that while fear conditioning could increase heart rate, the most significant change was the reduction in heart rate variability which could be further divided into two distinct stages: a highly rhythmic phase (stage-I and a more variable phase (stage-II. We showed that the time duration of the stage-I rhythmic phase were sensitive enough to reflect the transition from short-term to long-term fear memories. Moreover, it could also detect fear extinction effect during the repeated tone recall. These results suggest that heart rate variability is a valuable physiological indicator for sensitively measuring the consolidation and expression of fear memories in mice.

  11. Long-term variability of precipitation in Republic of Macedonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slavov, Nikola; Marinova, Tania; Ristevski, Pece

    2004-01-01

    During the last century a great attention has been spared to the water resources of the territories of different countries in the world. In the last decades investigations were directed towards the long-term variability of precipitation in the basic regions of agricultural production. Among these investigations the results that indicate decreasing of precipitation amounts during the potential crop-growing season are of especially great interest because precipitation decreasing affects harmfully crop production and population feeding. The purpose of the present work is to study the long-term variability of monthly precipitation sums for 5 representative meteorological stations in Republic of Macedonia: Skopje, Bitola, Prilep, Stip and Demir Kapija for the period 1925-2000. The duration and periodicity of precipitation variations are analyzed on the base of 5-years smooth values for different seasons, warm and cold half-year and for year. The tendencies of trend for the period 1925-2000 are found out.(Author)

  12. Glucose variability negatively impacts long-term functional outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsushima, Kazuhide; Peng, Monica; Velasco, Carlos; Schaefer, Eric; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; Frankel, Heidi

    2012-04-01

    Significant glycemic excursions (so-called glucose variability) affect the outcome of generic critically ill patients but has not been well studied in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of glucose variability on long-term functional outcome of patients with TBI. A noncomputerized tight glucose control protocol was used in our intensivist model surgical intensive care unit. The relationship between the glucose variability and long-term (a median of 6 months after injury) functional outcome defined by extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE) was analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models. Glucose variability was defined by SD and percentage of excursion (POE) from the preset range glucose level. A total of 109 patients with TBI under tight glucose control had long-term GOSE evaluated. In univariable analysis, there was a significant association between lower GOSE score and higher mean glucose, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL but not POE 80 to 110. After adjusting for possible confounding variables in multivariable ordinal logistic regression models, higher SD, POE more than 60, POE 80 to 150, and single episode of glucose less than 60 mg/dL were significantly associated with lower GOSE score. Glucose variability was significantly associated with poorer long-term functional outcome in patients with TBI as measured by the GOSE score. Well-designed protocols to minimize glucose variability may be key in improving long-term functional outcome. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

  14. Does ecosystem variability explain phytoplankton diversity? Solving an ecological puzzle with long-term data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarker, Subrata; Lemke, Peter; Wiltshire, Karen H.

    2018-05-01

    Explaining species diversity as a function of ecosystem variability is a long-term discussion in community-ecology research. Here, we aimed to establish a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity in a shallow-sea ecosystem. We used long-term data on biotic and abiotic factors from Helgoland Roads, along with climate data to assess the effect of ecosystem variability on phytoplankton diversity. A point cumulative semi-variogram method was used to estimate the long-term ecosystem variability. A Markov chain model was used to estimate dynamical processes of species i.e. occurrence, absence and outcompete probability. We identified that the 1980s was a period of high ecosystem variability while the last two decades were comparatively less variable. Ecosystem variability was found as an important predictor of phytoplankton diversity at Helgoland Roads. High diversity was related to low ecosystem variability due to non-significant relationship between probability of a species occurrence and absence, significant negative relationship between probability of a species occurrence and probability of a species to be outcompeted by others, and high species occurrence at low ecosystem variability. Using an exceptional marine long-term data set, this study established a causal relationship between ecosystem variability and phytoplankton diversity.

  15. Persistent increased PKMζ in long-term and remote spatial memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Changchi; Tsokas, Panayiotis; Serrano, Peter; Hernández, A Iván; Tian, Dezhi; Cottrell, James E; Shouval, Harel Z; Fenton, André Antonio; Sacktor, Todd Charlton

    2017-02-01

    PKMζ is an autonomously active PKC isoform that is thought to maintain both LTP and long-term memory. Whereas persistent increases in PKMζ protein sustain the kinase's action in LTP, the molecular mechanism for the persistent action of PKMζ during long-term memory has not been characterized. PKMζ inhibitors disrupt spatial memory when introduced into the dorsal hippocampus from 1day to 1month after training. Therefore, if the mechanisms of PKMζ's persistent action in LTP maintenance and long-term memory were similar, persistent increases in PKMζ would last for the duration of the memory, far longer than most other learning-induced gene products. Here we find that spatial conditioning by aversive active place avoidance or appetitive radial arm maze induces PKMζ increases in dorsal hippocampus that persist from 1day to 1month, coinciding with the strength and duration of memory retention. Suppressing the increase by intrahippocampal injections of PKMζ-antisense oligodeoxynucleotides prevents the formation of long-term memory. Thus, similar to LTP maintenance, the persistent increase in the amount of autonomously active PKMζ sustains the kinase's action during long-term and remote spatial memory maintenance. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2017-11-03

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

  17. Long-Term Variability in o Ceti and Other Mira Variables: Signs of Supergranular Convection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

    2009-09-01

    We describe our study of long-term variability of o Ceti (Mira A), the prototype of the Mira-type pulsating stars. Our study was originally undertaken to search for coherent long-period variability, but the results of our analysis didn't uncover this. However, we detected a low-frequency ``red noise'' in the Fourier spectrum of the o Ceti century-long light curve. We have since found similar behavior in other Miras and pulsating giant stars and have begun a study of a large sample of Mira variables. Similar red noise has been previously detected in red supergiants and attributed to supergranular convection. Its presence in Miras suggests the phenomenon may be ubiquitous in cool giant pulsators. These results support high-angular resolution observations of Miras and supergiants showing asymmetries in their surface brightness distributions, which may be due to large supergranular convection cells. Theoretical modeling, and numerical simulations of pulsation processes in late-type giants and supergiants should therefore take into account the effects of deep convection and large supergranular structures, which in turn may provide important insights into the behavior of Miras and other giant and supergiant pulsators. In this work, we summarize our results for o Ceti, present preliminary results of our broader study of Mira variables, and discuss how the results of this study may be used by future studies of AGB variables.

  18. Increasing temperature exacerbated Classic Maya conflict over the long term

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, W. Christopher; Campbell, David; Collard, Mark

    2017-05-01

    The impact of climate change on conflict is an important but controversial topic. One issue that needs to be resolved is whether or not climate change exacerbates conflict over the long term. With this in mind, we investigated the relationship between climate change and conflict among Classic Maya polities over a period of several hundred years (363-888 CE). We compiled a list of conflicts recorded on dated monuments, and then located published temperature and rainfall records for the region. Subsequently, we used a recently developed time-series method to investigate the impact of the climatic variables on the frequency of conflict while controlling for trends in monument number. We found that there was a substantial increase in conflict in the approximately 500 years covered by the dataset. This increase could not be explained by change in the amount of rainfall. In contrast, the increase was strongly associated with an increase in summer temperature. These finding have implications not only for Classic Maya history but also for the debate about the likely effects of contemporary climate change.

  19. Intra-Night Variability of OJ 287 with Long-Term Multiband Optical Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zeng

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We present long-term optical multi-band photometric monitoring of the blazar OJ 287 from 6 March 2010 to 3 April 2016, with high temporal resolution in the V R I -bands. The flux variations and colour-magnitude variations on long and short timescales were investigated to understand the emission mechanisms. In our observation, the major outbursts occurred in January 2016, as predicted by the binary pair of black holes model for OJ 287, with F v a r of 1.3∼2.1%, and variability amplitude (Amp of 5.8∼9.0%. The intra-night variability (IDV durations were from 18.5 to 51.3 min, and the minimal variability timescale was about 4.7 min. The colour-magnitude variation showed a weak positive correlation on the long timescale with Pearson’s r = 0 . 450 , while a negative correlation was found on intra-night timescales. We briefly discuss the possible physical mechanisms that are most likely to be responsible for the observed flux and colour-magnitude correlation variability.

  20. Seasonal, Spatial, and Long-term Variability of Fine Mineral Dust in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, J. L.; White, W. H.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hyslop, N. P.; Gill, T. E.; Schichtel, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    Characterizing the seasonal, spatial, and long-term variability of fine mineral dust (FD) is important to assess its environmental and climate impacts. FD concentrations (mineral particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm) were estimated using ambient, ground-based PM2.5 elemental chemistry data from over 160 remote and rural Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites from 2011 through 2015. FD concentrations were highest and contributed over 50% of PM2.5 mass at southwestern sites in spring and across the central and southeastern United States in summer (20-30% of PM2.5). The highest seasonal variability in FD occurred at sites in the Southeast during summer, likely associated with impacts from North African transport, which was also evidenced in the elemental ratios of calcium, iron, and aluminum. Long-term trend analyses (2000-2015) indicated widespread, regional increases in FD concentrations during spring in the West, especially in March in the Southwest. This increase was associated with an early onset of the spring dust season and correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The Southeast and central United States also experienced increased FD concentrations during summer and fall, respectively. Contributions of FD to PM2.5 mass have increased in regions across the United States during all seasons, in part due to increased FD concentrations but also as a result of reductions in secondary aerosols (e.g., sulfates, nitrates, and organic carbon). Increased levels of FD have important implications for its environmental and climate impacts; mitigating these impacts will require identifying and characterizing source regions and underlying mechanisms for dust episodes.

  1. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelen, Corne; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bultmann, Ute; Bjorner, Jakob

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Materials and methods: Based on the literature, 15 predictor

  2. Anomalous Low States and Long Term Variability in the Black Hole Binary LMC X-3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smale, Alan P.; Boyd, Patricia T.

    2012-01-01

    Rossi X-my Timing Explorer observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal an extended very low X-ray state lasting from 2003 December 13 until 2004 March 18, unprecedented both in terms of its low luminosity (>15 times fainter than ever before seen in this source) and long duration (approx 3 times longer than a typical low/hard state excursion). During this event little to no source variability is observed on timescales of approx hours-weeks, and the X-ray spectrum implies an upper limit of 1.2 x 10(exp 35) erg/s, Five years later another extended low state occurs, lasting from 2008 December 11 until 2009 June 17. This event lasts nearly twice as long as the first, and while significant variability is observed, the source remains reliably in the low/hard spectral state for the approx 188 day duration. These episodes share some characteristics with the "anomalous low states" in the neutron star binary Her X-I. The average period and amplitude of the Variability of LMC X-3 have different values between these episodes. We characterize the long-term variability of LMC X-3 before and after the two events using conventional and nonlinear time series analysis methods, and show that, as is the case in Her X-I, the characteristic amplitude of the variability is related to its characteristic timescale. Furthermore, the relation is in the same direction in both systems. This suggests that a similar mechanism gives rise to the long-term variability, which in the case of Her X-I is reliably modeled with a tilted, warped precessing accretion disk.

  3. Short-term versus long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas eVoss

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3%-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF. However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients (221 at low risk (IHFLR and 35 at high risk (IHFHR a 24h beat-to-beat time series b the first 30min segment c the 30min most stationary day segment and d the 30min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 hours and for each 30min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p

  4. The Baltic Sea natural long-term variability of salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimanke, Semjon; Markus Meier, H. E.

    2015-04-01

    The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish sea areas of the world. The sensitive state of the Baltic Sea is sustained by a fresh-water surplus by river discharge and precipitation on one hand as well as inflows of highly saline and oxygen-rich water masses from the North Sea on the other. Major inflows which are crucial for the renewal of the deep water occur very intermittent with a mean frequency of approximately one per year. Stagnation periods (periods without major inflows) lead for instance to a reduction of oxygen concentration in the deep Baltic Sea spreading hypoxic conditions. Depending on the amount of salt water inflow and fresh-water supply the deep water salinity of the Baltic Sea varies between 11 to 14 PSU on the decadal scale. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of different driving factors for the decadal to multi-decadal variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea. Continuous measurement series of salinity exist from the 1950 but are not sufficiently long for the investigation of long-term fluctuations. Therefore, a climate simulation of more than 800 years has been carried out with the Rossby Center Ocean model (RCO). RCO is a biogeochemical regional climate model which covers the entire Baltic Sea. It is driven with atmospheric data dynamical downscaled from a GCM mimicking natural climate variability. The analysis focus on the role of variations in river discharge and precipitation, changes in wind speed and direction, fluctuations in temperature and shifts in large scale pressure patterns (e.g. NAO). Hereby, the length of the simulation will allow to identify mechanisms working on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Moreover, it will be discussed how likely long stagnation periods are under natural climate variability and if the observed exceptional long stagnation period between 1983-1993 might be related to beginning climate change.

  5. Methods for Minimization and Management of Variability in Long-Term Groundwater Monitoring Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    DECEMBER 2015 Poonam Kulkarni Charles Newell Claire Krebs Thomas McHugh GSI Environmental, Inc. Britt Sanford ProHydro Distribution...based on an understanding of the short-term variability and long-term attenuation rate at a particular site ( McHugh et al., 2015a). The...time is independent of these parameters ( McHugh et al., 2015c). The relative trade-off between monitoring frequency and time required to

  6. Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David

    2016-04-01

    Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for

  7. Short- and long-term variations in non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to investigate the short- and long-term variations in the non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability, and to determine the relationships between conventional time and frequency domain methods and the newer non-linear methods of characterizing heart rate...... rate and describes mainly linear correlations. Non-linear predictability is correlated with heart rate variability measured as the standard deviation of the R-R intervals and the respiratory activity expressed as power of the high-frequency band. The dynamics of heart rate variability changes suddenly...

  8. Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

    2018-01-01

    LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

  9. Cephalometric variables predicting the long-term success or failure of combined rapid maxillary expansion and facial mask therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baccetti, Tiziano; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this study was to select a model of cephalometric variables to predict the results of early treatment of Class III malocclusion with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by comprehensive treatment with fixed appliances. Lateral cephalograms of 42 patients (20 boys, 22 girls) with Class III malocclusion were analyzed at the start of treatment (mean age 8 years 6 months +/- 2 years, at stage I in cervical vertebral maturation). All patients were reevaluated after a mean period of 6 years 6 months (at stage IV or V in cervical vertebral maturation) that included active treatment plus retention. At this time, the sample was divided into 2 groups according to occlusal criteria: a successful group (30 patients) and an unsuccessful group (12 patients). Discriminant analysis was applied to select pretreatment predictive variables of long-term treatment outcome. Stepwise variable selection of the cephalometric measurements at the first observation identified 3 predictive variables. Orthopedic treatment of Class III malocclusion might be unfavorable over the long term when a patient's pretreatment cephalometric records exhibit a long mandibular ramus (ie, increased posterior facial height), an acute cranial base angle, and a steep mandibular plane angle. On the basis of the equation generated by the multivariate statistical method, the outcome of interceptive orthopedic treatment for each new patient with Class III malocclusion can be predicted with a probability error of 16.7%.

  10. Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

    2017-12-31

    Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and

  11. Short-term increase of body weight triggers immunological variables in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van de Velde, H; Janssens, G P J; Stuyven, E; Cox, E; Buyse, J; Hesta, M

    2012-01-15

    Overweight in dogs is, as in other companion animals, a major risk factor for several metabolic disorders. However, it is not yet known whether immunity is challenged by increased body weight in dogs. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a short-term increase in body weight on immunological variables in adult healthy beagle dogs. Sixteen dogs, divided into a control group (CG) and weight gain group (WGG), were included. During a period of 13 weeks, the CG was fed at maintenance energy requirement (MER), whereas the WGG received a double amount of food. After 13 weeks, blood samples were taken for immunological and biochemical analyses. Weight gain and increased body condition score in the WGG were accompanied by a significant higher leptin concentration. Weight gain increased the number of lymphocytes and immunoglobulins A and M and was responsible for a higher proliferation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Short-term increase of body weight thus seems to trigger immunological variables in dogs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. LONG-TERM X-RAY VARIABILITY STUDY OF IC342 FROM XMM-NEWTON OBSERVATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, Daisy S. Y.; Pun, Chun S. J.; Kong, Albert K. H.

    2011-01-01

    We presented the results of an analysis of four XMM-Newton observations of the starburst galaxy IC342 taken over a four-year span from 2001 to 2005, with an emphasis on investigating the long-term flux and spectral variability of the X-ray point sources. We detected a total of 61 X-ray sources within 35' x 30' of the galaxy down to a luminosity of (1-2) x 10 37 erg s -1 depending on the local background. We found that 39 of the 61 detected sources showed long-term variability, in which 26 of them were classified as X-ray transients. We also found 19 sources exhibiting variations in hardness ratios or undergoing spectral transitions among observations, and were identified as spectral variables. In particular, eight of the identified X-ray transients showed spectral variability in addition to flux variability. The diverse patterns of variability observed are indicative of a population of X-ray binaries. We used X-ray colors, flux and spectral variability, and in some cases the optical or radio counterparts to classify the detected X-ray sources into several stellar populations. We identified a total of 11 foreground stars, 1 supersoft source (SSS), 3 quasisoft sources (QSSs), and 2 supernova remnants (SNRs). The identified SSS/QSSs are located near or on the spiral arms, associated with young stellar populations; the 2 SNRs are very close to the starburst nucleus where current star formation activities are dominated. We also discovered a spectral change in the nuclear source of IC342 for the first time by a series of X-ray spectrum analysis.

  13. The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

    2018-02-01

    Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

  14. Long-Term Visual Training Increases Visual Acuity and Long-Term Monocular Deprivation Promotes Ocular Dominance Plasticity in Adult Standard Cage-Raised Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosang, Leon; Yusifov, Rashad; Löwel, Siegrid

    2018-01-01

    For routine behavioral tasks, mice predominantly rely on olfactory cues and tactile information. In contrast, their visual capabilities appear rather restricted, raising the question whether they can improve if vision gets more behaviorally relevant. We therefore performed long-term training using the visual water task (VWT): adult standard cage (SC)-raised mice were trained to swim toward a rewarded grating stimulus so that using visual information avoided excessive swimming toward nonrewarded stimuli. Indeed, and in contrast to old mice raised in a generally enriched environment (Greifzu et al., 2016), long-term VWT training increased visual acuity (VA) on average by more than 30% to 0.82 cycles per degree (cyc/deg). In an individual animal, VA even increased to 1.49 cyc/deg, i.e., beyond the rat range of VAs. Since visual experience enhances the spatial frequency threshold of the optomotor (OPT) reflex of the open eye after monocular deprivation (MD), we also quantified monocular vision after VWT training. Monocular VA did not increase reliably, and eye reopening did not initiate a decline to pre-MD values as observed by optomotry; VA values rather increased by continued VWT training. Thus, optomotry and VWT measure different parameters of mouse spatial vision. Finally, we tested whether long-term MD induced ocular dominance (OD) plasticity in the visual cortex of adult [postnatal day (P)162-P182] SC-raised mice. This was indeed the case: 40-50 days of MD induced OD shifts toward the open eye in both VWT-trained and, surprisingly, also in age-matched mice without VWT training. These data indicate that (1) long-term VWT training increases adult mouse VA, and (2) long-term MD induces OD shifts also in adult SC-raised mice.

  15. Long-term variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative effects in Northern Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvärinen, Antti; Asmi, Eija; Hatakka, Juha; Viisanen, Yrjö

    2017-04-01

    We introduce long term dataset of aerosol scattering and absorption properties and combined aerosol optical properties measured in Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Norhern Finland. The station is located 170 km north of the Arctic Circle. The station is affected by both pristine Arctic air masses as well as long transported air pollution from northern Europe. We studied the optical properties of aerosols and their radiative effects in continental and marine air masses, including seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The average (median) scattering coefficient, backscattering fraction, absorption coefficient and single scattering albedo at the wavelength of 550 nm were 7.9 (4.4) 1/Mm, 0.13 (0.12), 0.74 (0.35) 1/Mm and 0.92 (0.93), respectively. We observed clear seasonal cycles in these variables, the scattering coefficient having high values during summer and low in fall, and absorption coefficient having high values during winter and low in fall. We found that the high values of the absorption coefficient and low values of the single scattering albedo were related to continental air masses from lower latitudes. These aerosols can induce an additional effect on the surface albedo and melting of snow. We observed the signal of the Arctic haze in marine (northern) air masses during March and April. The haze increased the value of the absorption coefficient by almost 80% and that of the scattering coefficient by about 50% compared with the annual-average values. We did not observe any long-term trend in the scattering coefficient, while our analysis showed a clear decreasing trend in the backscattering fraction and scattering Ångström exponent during winter. We also observed clear relationship with temperature and aerosol scattering coefficient. We will present also how these different features affects to aerosol direct radiative forcing.

  16. Short- and long-term variability of spectral solar UV irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece: effects of changes in aerosols, total ozone and clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Fountoulakis

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we discuss the short- and the long-term variability of spectral UV irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece, using a long, quality-controlled data set from two Brewer spectrophotometers. Long-term changes in spectral UV irradiance at 307.5, 324 and 350 nm for the period 1994–2014 are presented for different solar zenith angles and discussed in association with changes in total ozone column (TOC, aerosol optical depth (AOD and cloudiness observed in the same period. Positive changes in annual mean anomalies of UV irradiance, ranging from 2 to 6 % per decade, have been detected both for clear- and all-sky conditions. The changes are generally greater for larger solar zenith angles and for shorter wavelengths. For clear-skies, these changes are, in most cases, statistically significant at the 95 % confidence limit. Decreases in the aerosol load and weakening of the attenuation by clouds lead to increases in UV irradiance in the summer, of 7–9 % per decade for 64° solar zenith angle. The increasing TOC in winter counteracts the effect of decreasing AOD for this particular season, leading to small, statistically insignificant, negative long-term changes in irradiance at 307.5 nm. Annual mean UV irradiance levels are increasing from 1994 to 2006 and remain relatively stable thereafter, possibly due to the combined changes in the amount and optical properties of aerosols. However, no statistically significant corresponding turning point has been detected in the long-term changes of AOD. The absence of signatures of changes in AOD in the short-term variability of irradiance in the UV-A may have been caused by changes in the single scattering albedo of aerosols, which may counteract the effects of changes in AOD on irradiance. The anti-correlation between the year-to-year variability of the irradiance at 307.5 nm and TOC is clear and becomes clearer as the AOD decreases.

  17. Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

    2012-12-01

    International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

  18. Long-term Prognosis in COPD Exacerbation: Role of Biomarkers, Clinical Variables and Exacerbation Type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grolimund, Eva; Kutz, Alexander; Marlowe, Robert J; Vögeli, Alaadin; Alan, Murat; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Thomann, Robert; Falconnier, Claudine; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Zimmerli, Werner; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2015-06-01

    Long-term outcome prediction in COPD is challenging. We conducted a prospective 5-7-year follow-up study in patients with COPD to determine the association of exacerbation type, discharge levels of inflammatory biomarkers including procalctionin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC) and plasma proadrenomedullin (ProADM), alone or combined with demographic/clinical characteristics, with long-term all-cause mortality in the COPD setting. The analyzed cohort comprised 469 patients with index hospitalization for pneumonic (n = 252) or non-pneumonic (n = 217) COPD exacerbation. Five-to-seven-year vital status was ascertained via structured phone interviews with patients or their household members/primary care physicians. We investigated predictive accuracy using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). After a median [25th-75th percentile] 6.1 [5.6-6.5] years, mortality was 55% (95%CI 50%-59%). Discharge ProADM concentration was strongly associated with 5-7-year non-survival: adjusted hazard ratio (HR)/10-fold increase (95%CI) 10.4 (6.2-17.7). Weaker associations were found for PCT and no significant associations were found for CRP or WBC. Combining ProADM with demographic/clinical variables including age, smoking status, BMI, New York Heart Association dyspnea class, exacerbation type, and comorbidities significantly improved long-term predictive accuracy over that of the demographic/clinical model alone: AUC (95%CI) 0.745 (0.701-0.789) versus 0.727 (0.681-0.772), (p) = .043. In patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation, discharge ProADM levels appeared to accurately predict 5-7-year all-cause mortality and to improve long-term prognostic accuracy of multidimensional demographic/clinical mortality risk assessment.

  19. Long-term relationships of major macro-variables in a resource-related economic model of Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, Charles; Hoa, T. van

    1993-01-01

    The paper reports the results of a simple cointegration analysis applied to bivariate causality models using data on resource output, oil prices, terms of trade, current account and output growth to investigate the long-term relationships among these major macroeconomic aggregates in a resource-related economic model of Australia. For the period 1960-1990, the empirical evidence indicates that these five macro-variables, as formulated in our model, are not random walks. In addition, resource production and oil prices are significantly cointegrated, and they are also significantly cointegrated with the current account, terms of trade and economic growth. These findings provide support to the long-term adjustments foundation of our resource-related model. (author)

  20. Long-Term Persistency of Abnormal Heart Rate Variability following Long NICU Stay and Surgery at Birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélanie Morin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is associated with painful procedures during the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU stay. Full-term newborns can also experience pain, following surgery. These procedures can have long-lasting consequences. It has been shown that children born preterm show pain responses and cardiac alterations. This study aimed to explore the heart rate reactivity to pain in 107 subjects born either preterm or full-term who were between 7 and 25 years old at testing. We also evaluated the effect of pain experienced at birth, as represented by a longer NICU stay, time under ventilation, and surgery at birth. Participants were asked to immerse their right forearm in 10°C water for 2 minutes. Electrocardiograms were recorded at baseline and during the immersion procedure. Full-term subjects showed a stable increase in heart rate throughout the procedure, whereas preterm ones showed a strong increase at the beginning, which decreased over time. Also, preterm and full-term subjects who experienced pain at birth showed higher resting heart rate, stronger sympathetic activity, and lower cardiac vagal activity. Our study demonstrated a long-term impact of a long NICU stay and surgery at birth on cardiac autonomic activity. This could lead to impaired reactions to pain or stress in later life.

  1. Intraindividual Variability and Long-Term Changes of Thermal Quantitative Sensory Testing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krøigård, Thomas; Sothynathan, Isaivani; Sindrup, Søren H

    2015-01-01

    Thermal threshold examinations are widely used in the clinical setting and in studies to assess the function of the peripheral sensory nervous system. Little is known about the variation from one side of the body to the other and the long-term temporal changes and variability. In this study, 134...... and foot. Bilateral stimulations resulted in relative intertrial variations ranging from 19% to 40%. There was no significant temporal change for repeated measures. Analysis of the individual measurements of each subject at baseline and at 26 weeks, however, resulted in relatively large intertrial...

  2. Survival analysis of increases in care needs associated with dementia and living alone among older long-term care service users in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Huei-Ru; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Imanaka, Yuichi

    2017-08-15

    Japan is known for its long life expectancy and rapidly aging society that there are various demands of older adults need to be fulfilled with, and one of them is long-term care needs. Therefore, Japan implemented the Long-Term Care Insurance in year 2000 for citizens who are above 65-year old and citizens who are above 40-year old in needs of long-term care services. This study was undertaken to longitudinally examine the influence of dementia and living alone on care needs increases among older long-term care insurance service users in Japan. Long-term care insurance claims data were used to identify enrollees who applied for long-term care services between October 2010 and September 2011, and subjects were tracked until March 2015. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted to examine increases in care needs over time in months. Cox regression models were used to examine the effects of dementia and living alone on care needs increases. The cumulative survival rates before care needs increased over the 4.5-year observation period were 17.6% in the dementia group and 31.9% in the non-dementia group. After adjusting for age, sex, care needs level, and status of living alone, the risk of care needs increases was found to be 1.5 times higher in the dementia group. Living alone was not a significant risk factor of care needs increases, but people with dementia who lived alone had a higher risk of care needs increases than those without dementia. Dementia, older age, the female sex, and lower care needs levels were associated with a higher risk of care needs increases over the study period. Among these variables, dementia had the strongest impact on care needs increases, especially in persons who lived alone.

  3. Long-term and within-day variability of working memory performance and EEG in individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevins, Alan; McEvoy, Linda K; Smith, Michael E; Chan, Cynthia S; Sam-Vargas, Lita; Baum, Cliff; Ilan, Aaron B

    2012-07-01

    Assess individual-subject long-term and within-day variability of a combined behavioral and EEG test of working memory. EEGs were recorded from 16 adults performing n-back working memory tasks, with 10 tested in morning and afternoon sessions over several years. Participants were also tested after ingesting non-prescription medications or recreational substances. Performance and EEG measures were analyzed to derive an Overall score and three constituent sub-scores characterizing changes in performance, cortical activation, and alertness from each individual's baseline. Long-term and within-day variability were determined for each score; medication effects were assessed by reference to each individual's normal day-to-day variability. Over the several year period, the mean Overall score and sub-scores were approximately zero with standard deviations less than one. Overall scores were lower and their variability higher in afternoon relative to morning sessions. At the group level, alcohol, diphenhydramine and marijuana produced significant effects, but there were large individual differences. Objective working memory measures incorporating performance and EEG are stable over time and sensitive at the level of individual subjects to interventions that affect neurocognitive function. With further research these measures may be suitable for use in individualized medical care by providing a sensitive assessment of incipient illness and response to treatment. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  4. Long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires in South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Morton, D. C.; Yin, Y. F.; Collatz, G. J.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; van der Werf, G.R.; DeFries, R. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Landscape fires in South America have considerable impacts on ecosystems, air quality and the climate system. We examined long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires for the continent during 2001-2012 using multiple satellite-derived fire

  5. Long-term variabilities of meridional geostrophic volumn transport in North Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, H.; Yuan, D.; Dewar, W. K.

    2016-02-01

    The meridional geostrophic volumn transport (MGVT) by the ocean plays a very important role in the climatic water mass and heat balance because of its large heat capacity which enables the oceans to store the large amount of radiation received in the summer and to release it in winter. Better understanding of the role of the oceans in climate variability is essential to assess the likely range of future climate fluctuations. In the last century the North Pacific Ocean experienced considerable climate variability, especially on decadal time scale. Some studies have shown that the North Pacific Ocean is the origin of North Pacific multidecadal variability (Latif and Barnett, 1994; Barnett et al., 1999). These fluctuations were associated with large anomalies in sea level, temperature, storminess and rainfall, the heat transport and other extremes are changing as well. If the MGVT of the ocean is well-determined, it can be used as a test of the validity of numerical, global climate models. In this paper, we investigate the long-term variability of the MGVT in North Pacific ocean based on 55 years long global ocean heat and salt content data (Levitus et al., 2012). Very clear inter-decadal variations can be seen in tropical , subtropical and subpolar regions of North Pacific Ocean. There are very consistent variations between the MGVT anomalies and the inter-decadal pacific oscillation (IPO) index in the tropical gyre with cold phase of IPO corresponding to negative MGVT anomalies and warm phase corresponding to positive MGVT anomalies. The subtropical gyre shows more complex variations, and the subpolar gyre shows a negative MGVT anomaly before late 1970's and a positive anomaly after that time. The geostrophic velocities of North Pacific Ocean show significantly different anomalies during the two IPO cold phases of 1955-1976 and 1999 to present, which suggests a different mechanism of the two cold phases. The long term variations of Sverdrup transport compares well

  6. [Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plancke, L; Amariei, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

  7. Local variability in long-term care services: local autonomy, exogenous influences and policy spillovers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, José-Luis; Forder, Julien

    2015-03-01

    In many countries, public responsibility over the funding and provision of long-term care services is held at the local level. In such systems, long-term care provision is often characterised by significant local variability. Using a panel dataset of local authorities over the period 2002-2012, the paper investigates the underlying causes of variation in gross social care expenditure for older people in England. The analysis distinguishes between factors outside the direct control of policy makers, local preferences and local policy spillovers. The results indicate that local demand and supply factors, and to a much lesser extent local political preferences and spatial policy spillovers, explain a large majority of the observed variation in expenditure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Long-term exposure to mobile communication radiation: An analysis of time-variability of electric field level in GSM900 down-link channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miclaus, S.; Bechet, P.; Gheorghevici, M.

    2013-01-01

    Interest for knowing long-term human exposure levels due to mobile communications has increased in the last years. It has been shown that short-term exposure assessment made under standard procedural restrictions is not reliable when it comes to conclusions on long-term exposure levels. The present work is the result of a several week analysis of time variability of electric field level inside traffic and control channels of the GSM900 mobile communication down-link band and it indicates that a temporal model to allow future predictions of exposure on the long run is obtainable. Collecting, processing and statistically analysing the data provide expression of the maximum and weighted field strengths and their evolution in time. Specific electromagnetic footprints of the channels have been extracted, differentiations between their characteristics have been emphasised and practical advice is provided, with the scope of contributing to the development of reliable procedures for long-term exposure assessment. (authors)

  9. Long-Period Variability in o Ceti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Templeton, Matthew R.; Karovska, Margarita

    2009-02-01

    We carried out a new and sensitive search for long-period variability in the prototype of the Mira class of long-period pulsating variables, o Ceti (Mira A), the closest and brightest Mira variable. We conducted this search using an unbroken light curve from 1902 to the present, assembled from the visual data archives of five major variable star observing organizations from around the world. We applied several time-series analysis techniques to search for two specific kinds of variability: long secondary periods (LSPs) longer than the dominant pulsation period of ~333 days, and long-term period variation in the dominant pulsation period itself. The data quality is sufficient to detect coherent periodic variations with photometric amplitudes of 0.05 mag or less. We do not find evidence for coherent LSPs in o Ceti to a limit of 0.1 mag, where the amplitude limit is set by intrinsic, stochastic, low-frequency variability of approximately 0.1 mag. We marginally detect a slight modulation of the pulsation period similar in timescale to that observed in the Miras with meandering periods, but with a much lower period amplitude of ±2 days. However, we do find clear evidence of a low-frequency power-law component in the Fourier spectrum of o Ceti's long-term light curve. The amplitude of this stochastic variability is approximately 0.1 mag at a period of 1000 days, and it exhibits a turnover for periods longer than this. This spectrum is similar to the red noise spectra observed in red supergiants.

  10. Long-term variability and environmental control of the carbon cycle in an oak-dominated temperate forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing Xie; Jiquan Chen; Ge Sun; Housen Chu; Asko Noormets; Zutao Ouyang; Ranjeet John; Shiqiang Wan; Wenbin Guan

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the long-term carbon (C) cycle of temperate deciduous forests and its sensitivity to climate variability is limited due to the large temporal dynamics of C fluxes. The goal of the study was to quantify the effects of environmental variables on the C balance in a 70-year-old mixed-oak woodland forest over a 7-year period in northwest Ohio, USA. The...

  11. Long-Term Variability of Satellite Lake Surface Water Temperatures in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gierach, M. M.; Matsumoto, K.; Holt, B.; McKinney, P. J.; Tokos, K.

    2014-12-01

    The Great Lakes are the largest group of freshwater lakes on Earth that approximately 37 million people depend upon for fresh drinking water, food, flood and drought mitigation, and natural resources that support industry, jobs, shipping and tourism. Recent reports have stated (e.g., the National Climate Assessment) that climate change can impact and exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes, including changes in the range and distribution of certain fish species, increased invasive species and harmful algal blooms, declining beach health, and lengthened commercial navigation season. In this study, we will examine the impact of climate change on the Laurentian Great Lakes through investigation of long-term lake surface water temperatures (LSWT). We will use the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate: Lake Surface Water Temperature & Ice Cover (ARC-Lake) product over the period 1995-2012 to investigate individual and interlake variability. Specifically, we will quantify the seasonal amplitude of LSWTs, the first and last appearances of the 4°C isotherm (i.e., an important identifier of the seasonal evolution of the lakes denoting winter and summer stratification), and interpret these quantities in the context of global interannual climate variability such as ENSO.

  12. Long term variability of HDE 226868 = Cygnus X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liller, W.

    1976-01-01

    Investigation of blue-sensitive photographs of HDE 226868 = Cygnus X-1 reveal no (+-0.06 mag) long-term changes in brightness since the beginning of the century nor any abrupt intensity changes similar to what has been observed at x-ray and radio frequencies. From the double sinusoidal fluctuation with 5.6 day period, an attempt is made to derive a more precise value for the orbital period, but problems are encountered and discussed. There exists evidence that the amplitude of the orbital fluctuations is increasing slowly with time

  13. Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

    OpenAIRE

    Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Pavla; Arnalds, Olafur; Ólafsson, Haraldur

    2014-01-01

    The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the n...

  14. Calcium- and Phosphorus-Supplemented Diet Increases Bone Mass after Short-Term Exercise and Increases Bone Mass and Structural Strength after Long-Term Exercise in Adult Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Michael A.; Bailey, Alyssa M.; Rondon, Matthew J.; McNerny, Erin M.; Sahar, Nadder D.; Kohn, David H.

    2016-01-01

    Exercise has long-lasting benefits to bone health that may help prevent fractures by increasing bone mass, bone strength, and tissue quality. Long-term exercise of 6–12 weeks in rodents increases bone mass and bone strength. However, in growing mice, a short-term exercise program of 3 weeks can limit increases in bone mass and structural strength, compared to non-exercised controls. Short-term exercise can, however, increase tissue strength, suggesting that exercise may create competition for minerals that favors initially improving tissue-level properties over structural-level properties. It was therefore hypothesized that adding calcium and phosphorus supplements to the diet may prevent decreases in bone mass and structural strength during a short-term exercise program, while leading to greater bone mass and structural strength than exercise alone after a long-term exercise program. A short-term exercise experiment was done for 3 weeks, and a long-term exercise experiment was done for 8 weeks. For each experiment, male 16-week old C57BL/6 mice were assigned to 4 weight-matched groups–exercise and non-exercise groups fed a control or mineral-supplemented diet. Exercise consisted of treadmill running at 12 m/min, 30 min/day for 7 days/week. After 3 weeks, exercised mice fed the supplemented diet had significantly increased tibial tissue mineral content (TMC) and cross-sectional area over exercised mice fed the control diet. After 8 weeks, tibial TMC, cross-sectional area, yield force, and ultimate force were greater from the combined treatments than from either exercise or supplemented diet alone. Serum markers of bone formation (PINP) and resorption (CTX) were both decreased by exercise on day 2. In exercised mice, day 2 PINP was significantly positively correlated with day 2 serum Ca, a correlation that was weaker and negative in non-exercised mice. Increasing dietary mineral consumption during an exercise program increases bone mass after 3 weeks and

  15. Calcium- and Phosphorus-Supplemented Diet Increases Bone Mass after Short-Term Exercise and Increases Bone Mass and Structural Strength after Long-Term Exercise in Adult Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Michael A; Bailey, Alyssa M; Rondon, Matthew J; McNerny, Erin M; Sahar, Nadder D; Kohn, David H

    2016-01-01

    Exercise has long-lasting benefits to bone health that may help prevent fractures by increasing bone mass, bone strength, and tissue quality. Long-term exercise of 6-12 weeks in rodents increases bone mass and bone strength. However, in growing mice, a short-term exercise program of 3 weeks can limit increases in bone mass and structural strength, compared to non-exercised controls. Short-term exercise can, however, increase tissue strength, suggesting that exercise may create competition for minerals that favors initially improving tissue-level properties over structural-level properties. It was therefore hypothesized that adding calcium and phosphorus supplements to the diet may prevent decreases in bone mass and structural strength during a short-term exercise program, while leading to greater bone mass and structural strength than exercise alone after a long-term exercise program. A short-term exercise experiment was done for 3 weeks, and a long-term exercise experiment was done for 8 weeks. For each experiment, male 16-week old C57BL/6 mice were assigned to 4 weight-matched groups-exercise and non-exercise groups fed a control or mineral-supplemented diet. Exercise consisted of treadmill running at 12 m/min, 30 min/day for 7 days/week. After 3 weeks, exercised mice fed the supplemented diet had significantly increased tibial tissue mineral content (TMC) and cross-sectional area over exercised mice fed the control diet. After 8 weeks, tibial TMC, cross-sectional area, yield force, and ultimate force were greater from the combined treatments than from either exercise or supplemented diet alone. Serum markers of bone formation (PINP) and resorption (CTX) were both decreased by exercise on day 2. In exercised mice, day 2 PINP was significantly positively correlated with day 2 serum Ca, a correlation that was weaker and negative in non-exercised mice. Increasing dietary mineral consumption during an exercise program increases bone mass after 3 weeks and increases

  16. The Chaotic Long-term X-ray Variability of 4U 1705-44

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillipson, R. A.; Boyd, P. T.; Smale, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    The low-mass X-ray binary 4U1705-44 exhibits dramatic long-term X-ray time variability with a timescale of several hundred days. The All-Sky Monitor (ASM) aboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and the Japanese Monitor of All-sky X-ray Image (MAXI) aboard the International Space Station together have continuously observed the source from December 1995 through May 2014. The combined ASM-MAXI data provide a continuous time series over fifty times the length of the timescale of interest. Topological analysis can help us identify 'fingerprints' in the phase-space of a system unique to its equations of motion. The Birman-Williams theorem postulates that if such fingerprints are the same between two systems, then their equations of motion must be closely related. The phase-space embedding of the source light curve shows a strong resemblance to the double-welled nonlinear Duffing oscillator. We explore a range of parameters for which the Duffing oscillator closely mirrors the time evolution of 4U1705-44. We extract low period, unstable periodic orbits from the 4U1705-44 and Duffing time series and compare their topological information. The Duffing and 4U1705-44 topological properties are identical, providing strong evidence that they share the same underlying template. This suggests that we can look to the Duffing equation to help guide the development of a physical model to describe the long-term X-ray variability of this and other similarly behaved X-ray binary systems.

  17. Long-term intensive management increased carbon occluded in phytolith (PhytOC) in bamboo forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhang-Ting; Li, Yong-Fu; Jiang, Pei-Kun; Chang, Scott X.; Song, Zhao-Liang; Liu, Juan; Zhou, Guo-Mo

    2014-01-01

    Carbon (C) occluded in phytolith (PhytOC) is highly stable at millennium scale and its accumulation in soils can help increase long-term C sequestration. Here, we report that soil PhytOC storage significantly increased with increasing duration under intensive management (mulching and fertilization) in Lei bamboo (Phyllostachys praecox) plantations. The PhytOC storage in 0-40 cm soil layer in bamboo plantations increased by 217 Mg C ha-1, 20 years after being converted from paddy fields. The PhytOC accumulated at 79 kg C ha-1 yr-1, a rate far exceeding the global mean long-term soil C accumulation rate of 24 kg C ha-1 yr-1 reported in the literature. Approximately 86% of the increased PhytOC came from the large amount of mulch applied. Our data clearly demonstrate the decadal scale management effect on PhytOC accumulation, suggesting that heavy mulching is a potential method for increasing long-term organic C storage in soils for mitigating global climate change.

  18. Customer loyalty in the South African long-term insurance industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leon du Plessis

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of this study is to investigate the influence of selected independent variables, two-way communication and conflict handling on intentional customer loyalty via Customer Relationship Management (CRM as the intervening variable within the South African long-term insurance environment. Primary data were gathered using a questionnaire, with items referring to Customer Relationship Management, customer loyalty, two-way communication and conflict handling. The sample consisted of 254 customers in four customer walk-in centres of a long-term insurance provider in South Africa. Data were factor-analysed. One independent variable, conflict handling, exerted a statistically significant positive influence on the intervening variable (CRM, whilst two-way communication exerted a statistically significant negative influence on the intervening variable. This variable (CRM positively influenced the dependent variable (customer loyalty. If long-term insurance organisations communicate timeously and accurately, and are skilled in conflict handling, greater loyalty will be created amongst customers. The study revealed that the majority of customers (51.53% strongly agree that two-way communication is an important dimension that underpins Customer Relationship Management and their relationship with a long-term insurance organisation. The empirical results indicate a negative relationship between the perceived two-way communication by a long-term insurance organisation and CRM at the insurance provider in South Africa. In terms of conflict handling, the study revealed that the majority of customers (45.69% strongly agree that conflict handling is an important dimension that underpins Customer Relationship Management and their relationship with a long-term insurance organisation. The empirical results indicate a positive relationship between perceived conflict handling by a long-term insurance provider and CRM at the organisation in South

  19. Effects of long- and short-term management on the functional structure of meadows through species turnover and intraspecific trait variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volf, Martin; Redmond, Conor; Albert, Ágnes J; Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Yoann; Biella, Paolo; Götzenberger, Lars; Hrázský, Záboj; Janeček, Štěpán; Klimešová, Jitka; Lepš, Jan; Šebelíková, Lenka; Vlasatá, Tereza; de Bello, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    The functional structures of communities respond to environmental changes by both species replacement (turnover) and within-species variation (intraspecific trait variability; ITV). Evidence is lacking on the relative importance of these two components, particularly in response to both short- and long-term environmental disturbance. We hypothesized that such short- and long-term perturbations would induce changes in community functional structure primarily via ITV and turnover, respectively. To test this we applied an experimental design across long-term mown and abandoned meadows, with each plot containing a further level of short-term management treatments: mowing, grazing and abandonment. Within each plot, species composition and trait values [height, shoot biomass, and specific leaf area (SLA)] were recorded on up to five individuals per species. Positive covariations between the contribution of species turnover and ITV occurred for height and shoot biomass in response to both short- and long-term management, indicating that species turnover and intraspecific adjustments selected for similar trait values. Positive covariations also occurred for SLA, but only in response to long-term management. The contributions of turnover and ITV changed depending on both the trait and management trajectory. As expected, communities responded to short-term disturbances mostly through changes in intraspecific trait variability, particularly for height and biomass. Interestingly, for SLA they responded to long-term disturbances by both species turnover and intraspecific adjustments. These findings highlight the importance of both ITV and species turnover in adjusting grassland functional trait response to environmental perturbation, and show that the response is trait specific and affected by disturbance regime history.

  20. LONG-TERM LIGHT CURVE OF HIGHLY VARIABLE PROTOSTELLAR STAR GM CEP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Limin; Kroll, Peter; Henden, Arne A.

    2010-01-01

    We present data from the archival plates at Harvard College Observatory and Sonneberg Observatory showing the field of the solar-type pre-main-sequence star GM Cep. A total of 186 magnitudes of GM Cep have been measured on these archival plates, with 176 in blue sensitivity, six in visible, and four in red. We combine our data with data from the literature and from the American Association of Variable Star Observers to depict the long-term light curves of GM Cep in both B and V wavelengths. The light curves span from 1895 until now, with two densely sampled regions (1935-1945 in the B band, and 2006 until now in the V band). The long-term light curves do not show any fast rise behavior as predicted by an accretion mechanism. Both the light curves and the magnitude histograms confirm the conclusion that the light curves are dominated by dips (possibly from extinction) superposed on some quiescence state, instead of outbursts caused by accretion flares. Our result excludes the possibility of GM Cep being a FUor, EXor, or McNeil's Nebula-type star. Several special cases of T Tauri stars were checked, but none of these light curves were compatible with that of GM Cep. The lack of periodicity in the light curve excludes the possibility of GM Cep being a KH 15D system.

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

    2006-01-01

    Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

  2. On the long-term variability of Jupiter and Saturn zonal winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Garcia-Melendo, E.; Hueso, R.; Barrado-Izagirre, N.; Legarreta, J.; Rojas, J. F.

    2012-12-01

    We present an analysis of the long-term variability of Jupiter and Saturn zonal wind profiles at their upper cloud level as retrieved from cloud motion tracking on images obtained at ground-based observatories and with different spacecraft missions since 1979, encompassing about three Jovian and one Saturn years. We study the sensitivity and variability of the zonal wind profile in both planets to major planetary-scale disturbances and to seasonal forcing. We finally discuss the implications that these results have for current model efforts to explain the global tropospheric circulation in these planets. Acknowledgements: This work has been funded by Spanish MICIIN AYA2009-10701 with FEDER support, Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07 and UPV/EHU UFI11/55. [1] Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Icarus, 147, 405-420 (2000). [2] García-Melendo E., Sánchez LavegaA., Icarus, 152, 316-330 (2001) [3] Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Nature, 423, 623-625 (2003). [4] García-Melendo E., et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L22204 (2010).

  3. Immersion-scanning-tunneling-microscope for long-term variable-temperature experiments at liquid-solid interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochs, Oliver; Heckl, Wolfgang M.; Lackinger, Markus

    2018-05-01

    Fundamental insights into the kinetics and thermodynamics of supramolecular self-assembly on surfaces are uniquely gained by variable-temperature high-resolution Scanning-Tunneling-Microscopy (STM). Conventionally, these experiments are performed with standard ambient microscopes extended with heatable sample stages for local heating. However, unavoidable solvent evaporation sets a technical limit on the duration of these experiments, hence prohibiting long-term experiments. These, however, would be highly desirable to provide enough time for temperature stabilization and settling of drift but also to study processes with inherently slow kinetics. To overcome this dilemma, we propose a STM that can operate fully immersed in solution. The instrument is mounted onto the lid of a hermetically sealed heatable container that is filled with the respective solution. By closing the container, both the sample and microscope are immersed in solution. Thereby solvent evaporation is eliminated and an environment for long-term experiments with utmost stable and controllable temperatures between room-temperature and 100 °C is provided. Important experimental requirements for the immersion-STM and resulting design criteria are discussed, the strategy for protection against corrosive media is described, the temperature stability and drift behavior are thoroughly characterized, and first long-term high resolution experiments at liquid-solid interfaces are presented.

  4. A mathematical approach to increasing the long-term wealth of an agricultural enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Theron

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on developing an agricultural investment model based upon proven financial investment portfolio techniques. The model can be used as a tool to diversify agricultural risk over the long-term by optimising the proportion of land allocated to each of the agricultural products, resulting in increased value of the agricultural enterprise. Sensitivity analysis allows the strategist to understand the impact that future prices, gross margins and land availability may have on the long-term sustainability of the farming enterprise.

  5. Increased Short-Term Beat-To-Beat Variability of QT Interval in Patients with Acromegaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orosz, Andrea; Csajbók, Éva; Czékus, Csilla; Gavallér, Henriette; Magony, Sándor; Valkusz, Zsuzsanna; Várkonyi, Tamás T.; Nemes, Attila; Baczkó, István; Forster, Tamás; Wittmann, Tibor; Papp, Julius Gy.; Varró, András; Lengyel, Csaba

    2015-01-01

    Cardiovascular diseases, including ventricular arrhythmias are responsible for increased mortality in patients with acromegaly. Acromegaly may cause repolarization abnormalities such as QT prolongation and impairment of repolarization reserve enhancing liability to arrhythmia. The aim of this study was to determine the short-term beat-to-beat QT variability in patients with acromegaly. Thirty acromegalic patients (23 women and 7 men, mean age±SD: 55.7±10.4 years) were compared with age- and sex-matched volunteers (mean age 51.3±7.6 years). Cardiac repolarization parameters including frequency corrected QT interval, PQ and QRS intervals, duration of terminal part of T waves (Tpeak-Tend) and short-term variability of QT interval were evaluated. All acromegalic patients and controls underwent transthoracic echocardiographic examination. Autonomic function was assessed by means of five standard cardiovascular reflex tests. Comparison of the two groups revealed no significant differences in the conventional ECG parameters of repolarization (QT: 401.1±30.6 ms vs 389.3±16.5 ms, corrected QT interval: 430.1±18.6 ms vs 425.6±17.3 ms, QT dispersion: 38.2±13.2 ms vs 36.6±10.2 ms; acromegaly vs control, respectively). However, short-term beat-to-beat QT variability was significantly increased in acromegalic patients (4.23±1.03 ms vs 3.02±0.80, Pacromegaly in spite of unchanged conventional parameters of ventricular repolarization. This enhanced temporal QT variability may be an early indicator of increased liability to arrhythmia. PMID:25915951

  6. Optimal long-term contracting with learning

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zhiguo; Wei, Bin; Yu, Jianfeng; Gao, Feng

    2016-01-01

    We introduce uncertainty into Holmstrom and Milgrom (1987) to study optimal long-term contracting with learning. In a dynamic relationship, the agent's shirking not only reduces current performance but also increases the agent's information rent due to the persistent belief manipulation effect. We characterize the optimal contract using the dynamic programming technique in which information rent is the unique state variable. In the optimal contract, the optimal effort is front-loaded and decr...

  7. The Solar Neighborhood. XLI. A Study of the Wide Main Sequence for M Dwarfs—Long-term Photometric Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clements, Tiffany D.; Jao, Wei-Chun; Silverstein, Michele L. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States); Henry, Todd J.; Hosey, Altonio D. [RECONS Institute, Chambersburg, PA 17201 (United States); Winters, Jennifer G. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Dieterich, Sergio B. [Carnegie Institution for Science, Washington, DC 20015 (United States); Riedel, Adric R., E-mail: pewett@astro.gsu.edu, E-mail: jao@astro.gsu.edu, E-mail: silverstein@astro.gsu.edu, E-mail: toddhenry28@gmail.com, E-mail: altoniohosey@gmail.com, E-mail: jennifer.winters@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: sdieterich@carnegiescience.edu, E-mail: adric.riedel@gmail.com [Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2017-09-01

    We report findings from a long-term photometric variability study of M dwarfs carried out at the SMARTS 0.9 m telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. As part of a multi-faceted effort to investigate the range of luminosities of M dwarfs of a given color on the Hertzsprung–Russell Diagram, 76 M dwarfs have been observed for 3–17 years in the Johnson–Kron–Cousins V band. We find that stars elevated above the center of the main sequence distribution tend to have higher levels of variability, likely caused by magnetic activity, than their fainter counterparts below the center. This study provides insight into how the long-term magnetic activity of these stars may be affecting their sizes, luminosities, and thus positions on the H-R Diagram.

  8. Strong Selection Significantly Increases Epistatic Interactions in the Long-Term Evolution of a Protein.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditi Gupta

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Epistatic interactions between residues determine a protein's adaptability and shape its evolutionary trajectory. When a protein experiences a changed environment, it is under strong selection to find a peak in the new fitness landscape. It has been shown that strong selection increases epistatic interactions as well as the ruggedness of the fitness landscape, but little is known about how the epistatic interactions change under selection in the long-term evolution of a protein. Here we analyze the evolution of epistasis in the protease of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1 using protease sequences collected for almost a decade from both treated and untreated patients, to understand how epistasis changes and how those changes impact the long-term evolvability of a protein. We use an information-theoretic proxy for epistasis that quantifies the co-variation between sites, and show that positive information is a necessary (but not sufficient condition that detects epistasis in most cases. We analyze the "fossils" of the evolutionary trajectories of the protein contained in the sequence data, and show that epistasis continues to enrich under strong selection, but not for proteins whose environment is unchanged. The increase in epistasis compensates for the information loss due to sequence variability brought about by treatment, and facilitates adaptation in the increasingly rugged fitness landscape of treatment. While epistasis is thought to enhance evolvability via valley-crossing early-on in adaptation, it can hinder adaptation later when the landscape has turned rugged. However, we find no evidence that the HIV-1 protease has reached its potential for evolution after 9 years of adapting to a drug environment that itself is constantly changing. We suggest that the mechanism of encoding new information into pairwise interactions is central to protein evolution not just in HIV-1 protease, but for any protein adapting to a changing

  9. Short and long term variability of the interrupter technique under field and standardised conditions in 3-6 year old children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beelen, RMJ; Smit, HA; van Strien, RT; Koopman, LP; Brussee, JE; Brunekreef, B; Gerritsen, J; Merkus, PJFM

    2003-01-01

    Background: The short and long term variability of the interrupter technique was assessed to determine whether interrupter resistance is a stable individual characteristic over time. The effect of field and standardised measurement conditions on the within-subject variability of the interrupter

  10. Long-Term and Rapid Radio Variability of the Blazar 3C 454.3 in 2010-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorshkov, A. G.; Ipatov, A. V.; Ipatova, I. A.; Konnikova, V. K.; Mardyshkin, V. V.; Mingaliev, M. G.; Kharinov, M. A.

    2018-03-01

    The article presents the results of observations of the blazar 3C 454.3 (J2253+1608), obtained in 2010-2017 on the RATAN-600 radio telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory at 4.6, 8.2, 11.2, and 21.7 GHz and on the 32-m Zelenchuk and Badary radio telescopes of the Quasar VLBI Network of the Institute of Applied Astronomy at 4.84 and 8.57 GHz. Long-term variability of the radio emission is studied, as well as variability on time scales of several days and intraday variability (IDV). Two flares were observed in the long-term light curve, in 2010 and in 2015-2017. The flux density at 21.7 GHz increased by a factor of ten during these flares. The delay in the maximum of the first flare at 4.85 GHz relative to the maximum at 21.7 GHz was six months. The time scale for variability on the descending branch of the first flare at 21.7 GHz was τvar = 1.2 yrs, yielding an upper limit on the linear size of the emitting region of 0.4 pc, corresponding to an angular size of 0.06 mas. The brightness temperature during the flare exceeded the Compton limit, implying a Doppler factor δ = 3.5, consistent with the known presence of a relativistic jet oriented close to the line of sight. No significant variability on time scales from several days to several weeks was found in five sets of daily observations carried out over 120 days. IDV was detected at 8.57 GHz on the 32-m telescopes in 30 of 61 successful observing sessions, with the presence of IDV correlated with the maxima of flares. The characteristic time scale for the IDV was from two to ten hours. A number of IDV light curves show the presence of a time delay in the maxima in the light curves for simultaneous observations carried out on the Badary and Zelenchuk antennas, which are widely separated in longitude. This demonstrates that the IDV most like arises in the interstellar medium.

  11. Long term self esteem assessment after height increase by lengthening and then nailing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emara, K; Al Kersh, M A; Emara, A K

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of the study is to assess the long term psychosocial functioning after height increase, using the external fixation then nailing method. Rosenberg Self-esteem scale and a questionnaire to assess social functioning were completed by 28 patients both preoperatively and at a mean follow-up of 7 years. The mean total score of RSE self-esteem for the 28 patients before lengthening was 21.5 (SD 1.03) (20-24). The mean total score of RSE for the patients 1 year after lengthening was 22 (SD 1.17) (20-24) with highly significant difference (p = 0.002).The mean total RSE self-esteem score after 7 years was 21.7 (SD 1.12) (21-25) with no significant difference (p = 0.11) Improvement was an evident in the short term self esteem after 1 year of follow up of the patients with height increase. On the other hand, there was an evident deterioration in the long term psychosocial evaluation during follow up after 7 years of height increase, returning to near pre-operative levels of self esteem.

  12. Effects of long-term price increases for oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voehringer, F.; Mueller, A.; Boehringer, C.

    2007-03-01

    This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the effects of higher oil prices in the long-term. Scenarios examined include those with high oil prices of 80 to 140 dollars per barrel and those with drastic shortages resulting from peak extraction in the years 2010 and 2020. Long-term economic balances form the basis of the report, short-term influences and psychological effects are not addressed. The possible dangers for the earth's climate caused by the substitution of oil by coal-based products are discussed, as well as the sequestration of carbon dioxide. Ethanol and the associated conflicts of land use are examined and the decreasing cost-effectiveness of co-generation power generation is looked at. Alternatives such as atomic power, hydropower, solar energy, geothermal energy, biogas and wind power are discussed. The effect of the changing energy scene on economic growth and welfare aspects in Switzerland are examined. The authors conclude that high oil prices have considerable impacts on the economy and are not a substitute for an internationally co-ordinated climate policy

  13. Long-term variability of dust-storms in Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagsson-Waldhauserová, Pavla; Ólafsson, Haraldur; Arnalds, Ólafur

    2013-04-01

    Iceland is a volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean with maritime climate. In spite of moist climate, large areas are with limited vegetation cover where >40% of Iceland is classified with considerable to very severe erosion and 21% of Iceland are volcanic sandy deserts. Natural emissions from these sources influenced by strong winds affect not only regional air quality in Iceland ("Reykjavik haze") but dust particles are transported over the Atlantic ocean and Arctic Ocean > 1000 km at times. The study places Icelandic dust production area into international perspective, present long term frequency of dust storm events in NE Iceland, and estimate dust aerosol concentrations during reported dust events. Meteorological observations with dust presence codes and related visibility were used to identify the frequency and the long-term changes in dust production in NE Iceland. There were annually 16.4 days on average with reported dust observations on weather stations within the NE erosion area, indicating extreme dust plume activity and erosion within the NE deserts, even though the area is covered with snow during the major part of winter. During the 2000s the highest occurrence of dust events in six decades was reported. We have measured saltation and aeolian transport during dust/volcanic ash storms in Iceland which give some of the most intense wind erosion events ever measured. Icelandic dust affects the ecosystems over much of Iceland and causes regional haze. It is likely to affect the ecosystems of the oceans around Iceland, and it brings dust that lowers the albedo of the Icelandic glaciers, increasing melt-off due to global warming. The study indicates that Icelandic dust is not only a substantial source for regional air pollution, but may be considered to contribute to the Arctic haze phenomena and Arctic air pollution.

  14. Long-Term Variability of Surface Albedo and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables over Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minji Seo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The cryosphere is an essential part of the earth system for understanding climate change. Components of the cryosphere, such as ice sheets and sea ice, are generally decreasing over time. However, previous studies have indicated differing trends between the Antarctic and the Arctic. The South Pole also shows internal differences in trends. These phenomena indicate the importance of continuous observation of the Polar Regions. Albedo is a main indicator for analyzing Antarctic climate change and is an important variable with regard to the radiation budget because it can provide positive feedback on polar warming and is related to net radiation and atmospheric heating in the mainly snow- and ice-covered Antarctic. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed long-term temporal and spatial variability of albedo and investigated the interrelationships between albedo and climatic variables over Antarctica. We used broadband surface albedo data from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring and data for several climatic variables such as temperature and Antarctic oscillation index (AAO during the period of 1983 to 2009. Time series analysis and correlation analysis were performed through linear regression using albedo and climatic variables. The results of this research indicated that albedo shows two trends, west trend and an east trend, over Antarctica. Most of the western side of Antarctica showed a negative trend of albedo (about −0.0007 to −0.0015 year−1, but the other side showed a positive trend (about 0.0006 year−1. In addition, albedo and surface temperature had a negative correlation, but this relationship was weaker in west Antarctica than in east Antarctica. The correlation between albedo and AAO revealed different relationships in the two regions; west Antarctica had a negative correlation and east Antarctica showed a positive correlation. In addition, the correlation between albedo and AAO was weaker in the west. This

  15. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring-derived short-term blood pressure variability is increased in Cushing's syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebellato, Andrea; Grillo, Andrea; Dassie, Francesca; Sonino, Nicoletta; Maffei, Pietro; Martini, Chiara; Paoletta, Agostino; Fabris, Bruno; Carretta, Renzo; Fallo, Francesco

    2014-11-01

    Cushing's syndrome is associated with high cardiovascular morbility and mortality. Blood pressure (BP) variability within a 24-h period is increasingly recognized as an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk. The aim of our study was to investigate the short-term BP variability indices in Cushing's syndrome. Twenty-five patients with Cushing's syndrome (mean age 49 ± 13 years, 4 males; 21 Cushing's disease and 4 adrenal adenoma patients) underwent 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) and evaluation of cardiovascular risk factors. Cushing patients were divided into 8 normotensive (NOR-CUSH) and 17 hypertensive (HYP-CUSH) patients and were compared with 20 normotensive (NOR-CTR) and 20 hypertensive (HYP-CTR) age-, sex-, and BMI-matched control subjects. Short-term BP variability was derived from ABPM and calculated as the following: (1) standard deviation (SD) of 24-h, daytime, and nighttime BP; (2) 24-h weighted SD of BP; and (3) average real variability (ARV), i.e., the average of the absolute differences between consecutive BP measurements over 24 h. In comparison with controls, patients with Cushing's syndrome, either normotensive or hypertensive, had higher 24-h and daytime SD of BP, as well as higher 24-h weighted SD and ARV of BP (P = 0.03 to P CUSH or between HYP-CTR and HYP-CUSH subgroups. ABPM-derived short-term BP variability is increased in Cushing's syndrome, independent of BP elevation. It may represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor in this disease. The role of excess cortisol in BP variability has to be further clarified.

  16. PKA increases in the olfactory bulb act as unconditioned stimuli and provide evidence for parallel memory systems: pairing odor with increased PKA creates intermediate- and long-term, but not short-term, memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimes, Matthew T; Harley, Carolyn W; Darby-King, Andrea; McLean, John H

    2012-02-21

    Neonatal odor-preference memory in rat pups is a well-defined associative mammalian memory model dependent on cAMP. Previous work from this laboratory demonstrates three phases of neonatal odor-preference memory: short-term (translation-independent), intermediate-term (translation-dependent), and long-term (transcription- and translation-dependent). Here, we use neonatal odor-preference learning to explore the role of olfactory bulb PKA in these three phases of mammalian memory. PKA activity increased normally in learning animals 10 min after a single training trial. Inhibition of PKA by Rp-cAMPs blocked intermediate-term and long-term memory, with no effect on short-term memory. PKA inhibition also prevented learning-associated CREB phosphorylation, a transcription factor implicated in long-term memory. When long-term memory was rescued through increased β-adrenoceptor activation, CREB phosphorylation was restored. Intermediate-term and long-term, but not short-term odor-preference memories were generated by pairing odor with direct PKA activation using intrabulbar Sp-cAMPs, which bypasses β-adrenoceptor activation. Higher levels of Sp-cAMPs enhanced memory by extending normal 24-h retention to 48-72 h. These results suggest that increased bulbar PKA is necessary and sufficient for the induction of intermediate-term and long-term odor-preference memory, and suggest that PKA activation levels also modulate memory duration. However, short-term memory appears to use molecular mechanisms other than the PKA/CREB pathway. These mechanisms, which are also recruited by β-adrenoceptor activation, must operate in parallel with PKA activation.

  17. Long-term Observations of Intense Precipitation Small-scale Spatial Variability in a Semi-arid Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

  18. Long-term variability of supratidal coastal boulder activation in Brittany (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autret, Ronan; Dodet, Guillaume; Suanez, Serge; Roudaut, Gildas; Fichaut, Bernard

    2018-03-01

    High-energy supratidal coastal boulder deposit (SCBD) dynamics were investigated on Vierge Island and Pors Carn Point, north and south of western Brittany, France, respectively. Morphological changes induced by boulder transport and quarrying were quantified using high-resolution topographic survey data taken between 2012 and 2017. Additional in-situ wave parameters and water levels were also recorded over this period (2014-2017) in order to compute the maximum water levels and assess the relationship between SCBD morphological changes and specific hydrodynamic conditions. During extreme water levels (for maximum water levels exceeding a one in ten year event), SCBDs were broadly reworked (up to 40% of the total volume). During lower intensity events, for which maximum water levels were still very high, morphological changes represented 1% to 5% of the total volume. These morphological and hydrodynamic observations were then used to calibrate a chronology of SCBD activation events based on 70 years of hindcast winter maximum water levels. These long-term time-series showed great interannual variability in SCBD activation but no significant long-term trend. Winter-frequency SCBD activation was better correlated to the WEPA index (r = 0.46) than the NAO index (r = 0.1). Therefore, the WEPA index can be considered to be a more significant climate proxy for assessing storm-related geomorphic changes in the temperate latitudes of the N-E Atlantic basin (36°-52° N), including the Brittany coast. The potential of SCBDs as a morphological storm proxy for macrotidal high-energy rocky coasts is addressed.

  19. Effect of short-term heart rate variability biofeedback on long-term abstinence in alcohol dependent patients - a one-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penzlin, Ana Isabel; Barlinn, Kristian; Illigens, Ben Min-Woo; Weidner, Kerstin; Siepmann, Martin; Siepmann, Timo

    2017-09-06

    A randomized controlled study (RCT) recently showed that short-term heart rate variability (HRV) biofeedback in addition to standard rehabilitation care for alcohol dependence can reduce craving, anxiety and improve cardiovascular autonomic function. In this one-year follow-up study we aimed to explore whether completion of 2-week HRV-Biofeedback training is associated with long-term abstinence. Furthermore, we sought to identify potential predictors of post-treatment abstinence. We conducted a survey on abstinence in patients with alcohol dependence 1 year after completion of an RCT comparing HRV-biofeedback in addition to inpatient rehabilitation treatment alone (controls). Abstinence rates were compared and analysed for association with demographic data as well as psychometric and autonomic cardiac assessment before and after completion of the biofeedback training using bivariate and multivariate regression analyses. Out of 48 patients who participated in the RCT, 27 patients (9 females, ages 42.9 ± 8.6, mean ± SD) completed our one-year follow-up. When including in the analysis only patients who completed follow-up, the rate of abstinence tended to be higher in patients who underwent HRV-biofeedback 1 year earlier compared to those who received rehabilitative treatment alone (66.7% vs 50%, p = ns). This non-significant trend was also observed in the intention-to-treat analysis where patients who did not participate in the follow-up were assumed to have relapsed (46,7% biofeedback vs. 33.3% controls, p = ns). Neither cardiac autonomic function nor psychometric variables were associated with abstinence 1 year after HRV-biofeedback. Our follow-up study provide a first indication of possible increase in long-term abstinence after HRV-biofeedback for alcohol dependence in addition to rehabilitation. The original randomized controlled trial was registered in the German Clinical Trials Register ( DRKS00004618 ). This one-year follow-up survey has not been

  20. Long-term biodosimetry Redux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

    2016-01-01

    This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

  1. Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeon Jin Park

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

  2. Long-term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

    OpenAIRE

    Alderman,Harold; Hoddinott, John; Kinsey, Bill

    2003-01-01

    "This paper examines the impact of preschool malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects-instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long-term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought 'shocks' are used to identify differences in preschool nutritional status across siblings. Improvements in height-for-age in preschoolers are associated with increased height as a young adult and number of grades of schooling completed....

  3. Detecting the long-term impacts from climate variability and increasing water consumption on runoff in the Krishna river basin (India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Bouwer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations in climate, land-use and water consumption can have profound effects on river runoff. There is an increasing demand to study these factors at the regional to river basin-scale since these effects will particularly affect water resources management at this level. This paper presents a method that can help to differentiate between the effects of man-made hydrological developments and climate variability (including both natural variability and anthropogenic climate change at the basin scale. We show and explain the relation between climate, water consumption and changes in runoff for the Krishna river basin in central India. River runoff variability due to observed climate variability and increased water consumption for irrigation and hydropower is simulated for the last 100 years (1901–2000 using the STREAM water balance model. Annual runoff under climate variability is shown to vary only by about 14–34 millimetres (6–15%. It appears that reservoir construction after 1960 and increasing water consumption has caused a persistent decrease in annual river runoff of up to approximately 123 mm (61%. Variation in runoff under climate variability only would have decreased over the period under study, but we estimate that increasing water consumption has caused runoff variability that is three times higher.

  4. Radiocaesium in grazing sheep. A statistical analysis of variability, survey methodology and long term behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mehli, H

    1996-05-01

    Since 1987 sheep grazing in the areas of Norway that received Chernobyl-fallout have been monitored before slaughter. These monitoring data formed the basis for development of a model describing the long term behaviour of radiocesium in unimproved pasture showing that in years with good mushroom abundance 70-80% of the radiocesium concentration in sheep is due to fungi consumption. A study of sampling strategy and variability of radiocesium concentration within flocks was also performed. 55 refs., 31 figs., 15 tabs.

  5. Radiocaesium in grazing sheep. A statistical analysis of variability, survey methodology and long term behaviour

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehli, H.

    1996-05-01

    Since 1987 sheep grazing in the areas of Norway that received Chernobyl-fallout have been monitored before slaughter. These monitoring data formed the basis for development of a model describing the long term behaviour of radiocesium in unimproved pasture showing that in years with good mushroom abundance 70-80% of the radiocesium concentration in sheep is due to fungi consumption. A study of sampling strategy and variability of radiocesium concentration within flocks was also performed. 55 refs., 31 figs., 15 tabs

  6. Coping with climate variability and long-term climate trends for Nicaraguan maize-bean farmers (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.

  7. Predictors for increasing eligibility level among home help service users in the Japanese long-term care insurance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiya, Kuniyasu; Sasou, Kenji; Fujita, Makoto; Yamada, Sumio

    2013-01-01

    This cross-sectional study described the prevalence of possible risk factors for increasing eligibility level of long-term care insurance in home help service users who were certified as support level 1-2 or care level 1-2 in Japan. Data were collected from October 2011 to November 2011. Variables included eligibility level, grip strength, calf circumference (CC), functional limitations, body mass index, memory impairment, depression, social support, and nutrition status. A total of 417 subjects (109 males and 308 females, mean age 83 years) were examined. There were 109 subjects with memory impairment. When divided by cut-off values, care level 2 was found to have higher prevalence of low grip strength, low CC, and depression. Some potentially modifiable factors such as muscle strength could be the risk factors for increasing eligibility level.

  8. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  9. The long-term persistence of phytoplankton resting stages in aquatic "seed banks"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellegaard, Marianne; Ribeiro, Sofia

    2018-01-01

    to terrestrial seed beds of vascular plants, but are much less studied. It is therefore timely to review the phenomenon of long-term persistence of aquatic resting stages in sediment seed banks. Herein we compare function, morphology and physiology of phytoplankton resting stages to factors central...... for persistence of terrestrial seeds. We review the types of resting stages found in different groups of phytoplankton and focus on the groups for which long-term (multi-decadal) persistence has been shown: dinoflagellates, diatoms, green algae and cyanobacteria. We discuss the metabolism of long-term dormancy......In the past decade, research on long-term persistence of phytoplankton resting stages has intensified. Simultaneously, insight into life-cycle variability in the diverse groups of phytoplankton has also increased. Aquatic 'seed banks' have tremendous significance and show many interesting parallels...

  10. Serial Holter ST-segment monitoring after first acute myocardial infarction. Prevalence, variability, and long-term prognostic importance of transient myocardial ischemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mickley, H; Nielsen, J R; Berning, J

    1998-01-01

    Based on serial Holter monitoring performed 7 times within 3 years after a first acute myocardial infarction, we assessed the prevalence, variability and long-term clinical importance of transient myocardial ischemia (TMI) defined as episodes of ambulatory ST-segment depression. In all, 121...... consecutive male patients variability was found within and between patients...

  11. Long-Term Memory Performance in Adult ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skodzik, Timo; Holling, Heinz; Pedersen, Anya

    2017-02-01

    Memory problems are a frequently reported symptom in adult ADHD, and it is well-documented that adults with ADHD perform poorly on long-term memory tests. However, the cause of this effect is still controversial. The present meta-analysis examined underlying mechanisms that may lead to long-term memory impairments in adult ADHD. We performed separate meta-analyses of measures of memory acquisition and long-term memory using both verbal and visual memory tests. In addition, the influence of potential moderator variables was examined. Adults with ADHD performed significantly worse than controls on verbal but not on visual long-term memory and memory acquisition subtests. The long-term memory deficit was strongly statistically related to the memory acquisition deficit. In contrast, no retrieval problems were observable. Our results suggest that memory deficits in adult ADHD reflect a learning deficit induced at the stage of encoding. Implications for clinical and research settings are presented.

  12. On the K-term and dispersion ratios of semi-regular variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aslan, Z.

    1981-01-01

    Optical velocities of semi-regular (SR) and irregular (Lb) variables are analysed for a K-term. There is evidence for a dependence upon stellar period. Absorption lines in shorter period non-emission SR variables are blue-shifted relative to the centre-of-mass velocity by about 6 +- 3 km s -1 . Emission-line SR variables give a non-negative absorption K-term and Lb variables give no K-terms other than zero. Comparison is made with the K-terms implied by the OH velocity pattern in long-period variables. Dispersion ratios are also calculated. (author)

  13. Long-term rise of the Water Table in the Northeast US: Climate Variability, Land-Use Change, or Angry Beavers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutt, D. F.

    2011-12-01

    The scientific evidence that humans are directly influencing the Earth's natural climate is increasingly compelling. Numerous studies suggest that climate change will lead to changes in the seasonality of surface water availability thereby increasing the need for groundwater development to offset those shortages. Research suggests that the Northeast region of the U.S. is experiencing significant changes to its' natural climate and hydrologic systems. Previous analysis of a long-term regional compilation of the water table response to the last 60 years of climate variability in New England documented a wide range of variability. The investigation evaluated the physical mechanisms, natural variability and response of aquifers in New England using 100 long term groundwater monitoring stations with 20 or more years of data coupled with 67 stream gages, 75 precipitation stations, and 43 temperature stations. Groundwater trends were calculated as normalized anomalies and analyzed with respect to regional compiled precipitation, temperature, and streamflow anomalies to understand the sensitivity of the aquifer systems to change. Interestingly, a trend and regression analysis demonstrate that water level fluctuations are producing statistically significant results with increasing water levels over at least the past thirty years at most (80 out of 100) well sites. In this contribution we investigate the causal mechanisms behind the observed ground water level trends using site-by-site land-use change assessments, cluster analysis, and spatial analysis of beaver populations (a possible proxy for beaver activity). Regionally, average annual precipitation has been slightly increasing since 1900, with 95% of the stations having statistically significant positive trends. Despite this, no correlation is observed between the magnitude of the annual precipitation trends and the magnitude of the groundwater level changes. Land-use change throughout the region has primarily taken

  14. Determinants of Private Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase in Response to the Partnership Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Haizhen; Prince, Jeffrey T

    2016-04-01

    To assess three possible determinants of individuals' response in their private insurance purchases to the availability of the Partnership for Long-Term Care (PLTC) insurance program: bequest motives, financial literacy, and program awareness. The health and retirement study (HRS) merged with data on states' implementation of the PLTC program. Individual-level decision on private long-term care insurance is regressed on whether the PLTC program is being implemented for a given state-year, asset dummies, policy determinant variable, two-way and three-way interactions of these variables, and other controls, using fixed effects panel regression. Analysis used a sample between 50 and 69 years of age from 2002 to 2010, resulting in 12,695 unique individuals with a total of 39,151 observations. We find mild evidence that intent to bequest influences individual purchase of insurance. We also find that program awareness is necessary for response, while financial literacy notably increases responsiveness. Increasing response to the PLTC program among the middle class (the stated target group) requires increased efforts to create awareness of the program's existence and increased education about the program's benefits, and more generally, about long-term care risks and needs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  15. Long-term effects of drought on tree-ring growth and carbon isotope variability in Scots pine in a dry environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timofeeva, Galina; Treydte, Kerstin; Bugmann, Harald; Rigling, Andreas; Schaub, Marcus; Siegwolf, Rolf; Saurer, Matthias

    2017-08-01

    Drought frequency is increasing in many parts of the world and may enhance tree decline and mortality. The underlying physiological mechanisms are poorly understood, however, particularly regarding chronic effects of long-term drought and the response to increasing temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). We combined analyses of radial growth and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) in tree rings in a mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest over the 20th century to elucidate causes of tree mortality in one of the driest parts of the European Alps (Pfynwald, Switzerland). We further compared trees that have recently died with living trees in a 10-year irrigation experiment, where annual precipitation was doubled. We found a sustained growth increase and immediate depletion of δ13C values for irrigated trees, indicating higher stomatal conductance and thus indeed demonstrating that water is a key limiting factor for growth. Growth of the now-dead trees started declining in the mid-1980s, when both mean temperature and VPD increased strongly. But growth of these trees was reduced to some extent already several decades earlier, while intrinsic water-use efficiency derived from δ13C values was higher. This indicates a more conservative water-use strategy compared with surviving trees, possibly at the cost of low carbon uptake and long-term reduction of the needle mass. We observed reduced climatic sensitivity of raw tree-ring δ13C for the now-dead in contrast to surviving trees, indicating impaired stomatal regulation, although this difference between the tree groups was smaller after detrending the data. Higher autocorrelation and a lower inter-annual δ13C variability of the now-dead trees further indicates a strong dependence on (low) carbon reserves. We conclude that the recent increase in atmospheric moisture demand in combination with insufficient soil water supply was the main trigger for mortality of those trees that were weakened by long-term

  16. Short-term memory and long-term memory are still different.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Dennis

    2017-09-01

    A commonly expressed view is that short-term memory (STM) is nothing more than activated long-term memory. If true, this would overturn a central tenet of cognitive psychology-the idea that there are functionally and neurobiologically distinct short- and long-term stores. Here I present an updated case for a separation between short- and long-term stores, focusing on the computational demands placed on any STM system. STM must support memory for previously unencountered information, the storage of multiple tokens of the same type, and variable binding. None of these can be achieved simply by activating long-term memory. For example, even a simple sequence of digits such as "1, 3, 1" where there are 2 tokens of the digit "1" cannot be stored in the correct order simply by activating the representations of the digits "1" and "3" in LTM. I also review recent neuroimaging data that has been presented as evidence that STM is activated LTM and show that these data are exactly what one would expect to see based on a conventional 2-store view. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Polarization and long-term variability of Sgr A* X-ray echo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churazov, E.; Khabibullin, I.; Ponti, G.; Sunyaev, R.

    2017-06-01

    We use a model of the molecular gas distribution within ˜100 pc from the centre of the Milky Way (Kruijssen, Dale & Longmore) to simulate time evolution and polarization properties of the reflected X-ray emission, associated with the past outbursts from Sgr A*. While this model is too simple to describe the complexity of the true gas distribution, it illustrates the importance and power of long-term observations of the reflected emission. We show that the variable part of X-ray emission observed by Chandra and XMM-Newton from prominent molecular clouds is well described by a pure reflection model, providing strong support of the reflection scenario. While the identification of Sgr A* as a primary source for this reflected emission is already a very appealing hypothesis, a decisive test of this model can be provided by future X-ray polarimetric observations, which will allow placing constraints on the location of the primary source. In addition, X-ray polarimeters (like, e.g. XIPE) have sufficient sensitivity to constrain the line-of-sight positions of molecular complexes, removing major uncertainty in the model.

  18. Visualization of heart rate variability of long-term heart transplant patient by transition networks: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna eWdowczyk

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a heart transplant patient at his 17th year of uncomplicated follow-up. Within a frame of routine check out several tests were performed. With such a long and uneventful follow-up some degree of graft reinnervation could be anticipated. However, the patient's electrocardiogram and exercise parameters seemed largely inconclusive in this regard. The exercise heart rate dynamics were suggestive of only mild, if any parasympathetic reinnervation of the graft with persisting sympathetic activation. On the other hand, traditional heart rate variability (HRV indices were inadequately high, due to erratic rhythm resulting from interference of the persisting recipient sinus node or nonconducted atrial parasystole. New tools, originated from network representation of time series, by visualization short-term dynamical patterns, provided a method to discern HRV increase due to reinnervation from other reasons.

  19. Long-Term Capital Goods Importation and Minimum Wage Relationship in Turkey: Bounds Testing Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tastan Serkan

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to examine the long-term relationship between capital goods importation and minimum wage, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds testing approach to the cointegration is used in the study. According to bounds test results, a cointegration relation exists between the capital goods importation and the minimum wage. Therefore an ARDL(4,0 model is estimated in order to determine the long and short term relations between variables. According to the empirical analysis, there is a positive and significant relationship between the capital goods importation and the minimum wage in Turkey in the long term. A 1% increase in the minimum wage leads to a 0.8% increase in the capital goods importation in the long term. The result is similar for short term coefficients. The relationship observed in the long term is preserved in short term, though in a lower level. In terms of error correction model, it can be concluded that error correction mechanism works as the error correction term is negative and significant. Short term deviations might be resolved with the error correction mechanism in the long term. Accordingly, approximately 75% of any deviation from equilibrium which might arise in the previous six month period will be resolved in the current six month period. This means that returning to long term equilibrium progresses rapidly.

  20. Development of a dispatch model of the European power system for coupling with a long-term foresight energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-12-01

    Renewable sources of electricity production are strongly increasing in many parts of the world. The production costs are going down quickly, thus accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind electricity generation. In the long-term, these variable sources of electricity could represent a high share of the power system. However, long-term foresight energy models have difficulties describing precisely the integration challenges of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) such as wind or solar. They just do not represent the short-term technical constraints of the power sector. The objective of this paper is to show a new approach of the representation of the challenges of variability in the long-term foresight energy model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We develop a short-term optimization model for the power sector operation, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment and Dispatch) and we couple it to POLES year after year. The direct coupling, with bi-directional exchanges of information, brings technical precision to the long-term coherence of energy scenarios. (author)

  1. Do the frequencies of adverse events increase, decrease, or stay the same with long-term use of statins?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddy, Karlyn; Dhesi, Pavittarpaul; Thompson, Paul D

    2013-02-01

    Statins are widely used for their cholesterol-lowering properties and proven reduction of cardiovascular disease risk. Many patients take statins as long-term treatment for a variety of conditions without a clear-cut understanding of how treatment duration affects the frequency of adverse effects. We aimed to evaluate whether the frequencies of documented adverse events increase, decrease, or remain unchanged with long-term statin use. We reviewed the established literature to define the currently known adverse effects of statin therapy, including myopathy, central nervous system effects, and the appearance of diabetes, and the frequency of these events with long-term medication use. The frequency of adverse effects associated with long-term statin therapy appears to be low. Many patients who develop side effects from statin therapy do so relatively soon after initiation of therapy, so the frequency of side effects from statin therapy when expressed as a percentage of current users decreases over time. Nevertheless, patients may develop side effects such as muscle pain and weakness years after starting statin therapy; however, the absolute number of patients affected by statin myopathy increases with treatment duration. Also, clinical trials of statin therapy rarely exceed 5 years, so it is impossible to determine with certainty the frequency of long-term side effects with these drugs.

  2. Long-term runoff changes in regions of Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miklanek, Pavol; Pekarova; Pavla

    2004-01-01

    Mean annual runoff variability includes both natural and anthropogenic (climate change) impacts. Aim of the paper is to identify the long-term trends and the cyclic runoff components of selected Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000, and of the Danube river for the period 1840-2000. The variability is analysed by the long-term runoff trends of 27 Slovak rivers for the period 1931-2000. The stations were included into the Slovak National Climate Program and they are supposed not to be influenced by anthropogenic activities except of possible climate change. Comparison of the monthly runoff series of the 27 rivers allowed us to draw 3 regions with different runoff trends on the territory of Slovakia (constant trend in Northern and Eastern Slovakia, slow decrease in Central Slovakia, and rapid decrease in Southern Slovakia; The identification of different cyclic components of the runoff series is included. The length of the series allows to identify the 22-year cycles as maximum. By means of the longer runoff series of the Danube river it is shown that the more dry periods occurred in the central Europe and Slovakia in mid 19 th century. The longer Danube series were used also to find the longer runoff cycles of about 31 and 46 years. The mean annual temperature in Europe was lower by 0.6 o C in mid 19 th century compared to 1990s. The temperature increase is put down to climate change impact. The driest period shown by Danube runoff series in mid 19 th century occurred before the start of the climate change. Therefore it is probable that the long-term runoff variability has its own dynamics as well. (Author)

  3. Long-term efficacy of reverse pull headgear therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Andrew P; Sarver, David M; Proffit, William R

    2006-11-01

    To add to the data for long-term reverse pull headgear (RPHG) outcomes and further explore possible variables that could be predictors of long-term failure. Cephalometric radiographs of 41 Class III malocclusion children treated with RPHG (face mask) were evaluated before and immediately after treatment; at 5 years posttreatment; and, for 18 patients, at 10 years posttreatment. Patients were assigned to success or failure groups according to positive or negative overjet at the longest available recall. Seventy-five percent of the patients maintained positive overjet, whereas 25% outgrew the correction. In a stepwise discriminant analysis, a large mandible and vertical positioning of the maxilla and mandible so that mandibular growth would be projected more horizontally were the major indicators of unfavorable later mandibular growth. Patients who experienced downward-backward rotation of the mandible during RPHG treatment were more likely to be categorized in the failure group. The age at which treatment began had no effect on long-term success and failure for patients younger than 10 years, but the percentage of successful treatment decreased after that age. When RPHG treatment is used for all but the most obviously prognathic children to correct anterior cross-bite in the early mixed dentition, positive overjet is maintained long-term in 70%-75% of cases, whereas 25%-30% of cases relapse into reverse overjet mainly because of increased horizontally directed and often late mandibular growth. Up to age 10, the time at which RPHG treatment began does not appear to be a major factor in long-term success in maintaining positive overjet.

  4. Long-term creep test with finite elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argyris, J.H.; Szimmat, J.; Willam, K.J.

    1975-01-01

    Following a presentation of concrete creep, a brief summary of the direct and incremental calculation methods for long-term creep behaviour is given. In addition, a survey on the methods of the inner state variables is given which, on the one hand, gives a uniform framework for the various formulations of concrete creep, and on the other hand leads to a computable calculation method. Two examples on long-term creep behaviour illustrate the application field of the calculation method. (orig./LH) [de

  5. Long-term care-service use and increases in care-need level among home-based elderly people in a Japanese urban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koike, Soichi; Furui, Yuji

    2013-04-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the effects of home-based long-term care insurance services on an increase in care need levels and discuss its policy implications. We analyzed care need certification and long-term care service use data for 3006 non-institutionalized elderly persons in a Tokyo ward effective as of October 2009 and 2010. Individual care need assessment intervals and their corresponding changes in care need level were calculated from data at two data acquisition points of care need assessment. Those who had been certified but did not use any long-term care insurance service were defined as the control group. The Cox proportionate hazard model was used to determine whether the use of a long-term care insurance service is associated with increased care need level. After adjusting for sex, age, and care need level, the hazard ratio for the probability of increased care need level among service users was calculated as 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.88; p Home-based long-term care service use may prevent an increase in care need level. Administrative data on care need certification and services use could be an effective tool for evaluating the long-term care insurance system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Demographic and placement variables associated with overweight and obesity in children in long-term foster care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderman, Janet U; Arnold-Clark, Janet S; Smith, Caitlin; Duan, Lei; Fuentes, Jorge

    2013-11-01

    Overweight and obesity is a growing problem for children in foster care. This study describes the prevalence of overweight and obesity in an urban, ethnic minority population of children ages 2-19 in long-term foster care (N = 312) in Los Angeles, California. It also investigates whether demographics or placement settings are related to high body mass index. The estimates of prevalence of overweight/obesity (≥85th percentile) and obesity (≥95th percentile) were presented for gender, age, ethnicity, and placement type. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine potential associations between demographic and placement variables and weight status. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was almost 40 % and obesity was 23 % for the study population. Children placed in a group home had the highest prevalence of overweight/obesity (60 %) and obesity (43 %) compared to other types of placement. Within this study, older children (ages 12-19) were more likely to be overweight/obese than normal weight compared to children between 2 and 5 years old when controlling for gender, ethnicity and placement (OR = 2.10, CI = 1.14-3.87). These findings suggest that older age and long-term foster care in general may be risk factors for obesity. Child welfare agencies and health care providers need to work together to train caregivers with children in long-term foster care in obesity treatment interventions and obesity prevention strategies.

  7. Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

    2018-02-01

    In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

  8. Long-term outcome of sports injuries : results after inpatient treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dekker, R; van der Sluis, CK; Groothoff, JW; Eisma, WH; ten Duis, HJ

    Objective: To investigate whether sports injuries result in long-term disabilities and handicaps and to establish variables with a prognostic value for the occurrence of these long-term consequences. Materials and methods: All patients older than 17 years of age and admitted to the University

  9. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

    2015-03-19

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

  10. The Womanly World of Long Term Care: The Plight of the Long Term Care Worker. Gray Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Older Women's League, Washington, DC.

    Long-term care workers (those who are paid to provide custodial care for long-term patients in nursing homes or at home) must care for a growing number of increasingly disabled or dependent persons. They are working for agencies and institutions under growing pressure to increase productivity. They face new training and competency requirements,…

  11. Long-term outcome of major depressive disorder in psychiatric patients is variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holma, K Mikael; Holma, Irina A K; Melartin, Tarja K; Rytsälä, Heikki J; Isometsä, Erkki T

    2008-02-01

    The prevailing view of outcome of major depressive disorder (MDD), based on mostly inpatient cohorts sampled from tertiary centers, emphasizes chronicity and frequent recurrences. We investigated the long-term outcome of a regionally representative psychiatric MDD cohort comprising mainly outpatients. The Vantaa Depression Study included 163 patients with DSM-IV MDD (71.5% of those eligible) diagnosed using structured and semistructured interviews and followed up at 6 months, 18 months, and 5 years with a life chart between February 1, 1997, and April 30, 2004. The effects of comorbid disorders and other predictors on outcome were comprehensively investigated. Over the 5-year follow-up, 98.8% of patients achieved a symptom state below major depressive episode (MDE) criteria, and 88.4% reached full remission, with the median time to full remission being 11.0 months. Nearly one third (29.3%) had no recurrences, whereas 30.0% experienced 1, 12.9% experienced 2, and 27.9% experienced 3 or more recurrences. Preceding dysthymic disorder (p = .028), cluster C personality disorder (p = .041), and longer MDE duration prior to entry (p = .011) were the most significant predictors of longer time in achieving full remission. Severity of MDD and comorbidity, especially social phobia, predicted probability of, shorter time to, and number of recurrences. Previous literature on mostly inpatient MDD may have, by generalizing from patients with the most severe psychopathology, overemphasized chronicity of MDD. The long-term outcome of MDD in psychiatric care is variable, with about one tenth of patients having poor, one third having intermediate, and one half having favorable outcomes. In addition to known predictors, cluster C personality disorders and social phobia warrant further attention as predictors of MDD outcome among outpatients.

  12. Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loaiciga, Hugo A

    2009-01-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), prominently carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and halocarbons, have risen from fossil-fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture, and industry. There is currently heated national and international debate about the consequences of such increasing concentrations of GHGs on the Earth's climate, and, ultimately, on life and society in the world as we know it. This paper reviews (i) long-term patterns of climate change, secular climatic variability, and predicted population growth and their relation to water resources management, and, specifically, to ground water resources management, (ii) means available for mitigating and adapting to trends of climatic change and climatic variability and their impacts on ground water resources. Long-term (that is, over hundreds of millions of years), global-scale, climatic fluctuations are compared with more recent (in the Holocene) patterns of the global and regional climates to shed light on the meaning of rising mean surface temperature over the last century or so, especially in regions whose historical hydroclimatic records exhibit large inter-annual variability. One example of regional ground water resources response to global warming and population growth is presented.

  13. Compensation for PKMζ in long-term potentiation and spatial long-term memory in mutant mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsokas, Panayiotis; Hsieh, Changchi; Yao, Yudong; Lesburguères, Edith; Wallace, Emma Jane Claire; Tcherepanov, Andrew; Jothianandan, Desingarao; Hartley, Benjamin Rush; Pan, Ling; Rivard, Bruno; Farese, Robert V; Sajan, Mini P; Bergold, Peter John; Hernández, Alejandro Iván; Cottrell, James E; Shouval, Harel Z; Fenton, André Antonio; Sacktor, Todd Charlton

    2016-05-17

    PKMζ is a persistently active PKC isoform proposed to maintain late-LTP and long-term memory. But late-LTP and memory are maintained without PKMζ in PKMζ-null mice. Two hypotheses can account for these findings. First, PKMζ is unimportant for LTP or memory. Second, PKMζ is essential for late-LTP and long-term memory in wild-type mice, and PKMζ-null mice recruit compensatory mechanisms. We find that whereas PKMζ persistently increases in LTP maintenance in wild-type mice, PKCι/λ, a gene-product closely related to PKMζ, persistently increases in LTP maintenance in PKMζ-null mice. Using a pharmacogenetic approach, we find PKMζ-antisense in hippocampus blocks late-LTP and spatial long-term memory in wild-type mice, but not in PKMζ-null mice without the target mRNA. Conversely, a PKCι/λ-antagonist disrupts late-LTP and spatial memory in PKMζ-null mice but not in wild-type mice. Thus, whereas PKMζ is essential for wild-type LTP and long-term memory, persistent PKCι/λ activation compensates for PKMζ loss in PKMζ-null mice.

  14. Long term unemployment, income, poverty, and social public expenditure, and their relationship with self-perceived health in Spain (2007-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Del Amo González, M Puerto; Benítez, Vivian; Martín-Martín, José J

    2018-01-15

    There is scant research that simultaneously analyzes the joint effects of long-term unemployment, poverty and public expenditure policies on poorer self-perceived health during the financial crisis. The aim of the study is to analyze the joint relationship between long-term unemployment, social deprivation, and regional social public expenditure on one side, and self-perceived health in Spain (2007-2011) on the other. Longitudinal data were extracted from the Survey on Living Conditions, 2007-2010 and 2008-2011 (9105 individuals and 36,420 observations), which were then used to estimate several random group effects in the constant multilevel logistic longitudinal models (level 1: year; level 2: individual; level 3: region). The dependent variable was self-perceived health. Individual independent interest variables were long and very long term unemployment, available income, severe material deprivation and regional variables were per capita expenditure on essential public services and per capita health care expenditure. All of the estimated models show a robust association between bad perceived health and the variables of interest. When compared to employed individuals, long term unemployment increases the odds of reporting bad health by 22% to 67%; very long-term unemployment (24 to 48 months) increases the odds by 54% to 132%. Family income reduces the odds of reporting bad health by 16% to 28% for each additional percentage point in income. Being a member of a household with severe material deprivation increases the odds of perceiving one's health as bad by between 70% and 140%. Regionally, per capita expenditure on essential public services increases the odds of reporting good health, although the effect of this association was limited. Long and very long term unemployment, available income and poverty were associated to self-perceived bad health in Spain during the financial crisis. Regional expenditure on fundamental public services is also associated to poor

  15. Long term X-ray variability characteristics of the narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy RE J1034+396

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhury, K.; Chitnis, V. R.; Rao, A. R.; Singh, K. P.; Bhattacharyya, Sudip; Dewangan, G. C.; Chakraborty, S.; Chandra, S.; Stewart, G. C.; Mukerjee, K.; Dey, R. K.

    2018-05-01

    We present the results of our study of the long term X-ray variability characteristics of the Narrow Line Seyfert 1 galaxy RE J1034+396. We use data obtained from the AstroSat satellite along with the light curves obtained from XMM-Newton and Swift-XRT. We use the 0.3 - 7.0 keV and 3 - 20 keV data, respectively, from the SXT and the LAXPC of AstroSat. The X-ray spectra in the 0.3 - 20 keV region are well fit with a model consisting of a power-law and a soft excess described by a thermal-Compton emission with a large optical depth, consistent with the earlier reported results. We have examined the X-ray light curves in the soft and hard X-ray bands of SXT and LAXPC, respectively, and find that the variability is slightly larger in the hard band. To investigate the variability characteristics of this source at different time scales, we have used X-ray light curves obtained from XMM-Newton data (200 s to 100 ks range) and Swift-XRT data (1 day to 100 day range) and find that there are evidences to suggest that the variability sharply increases at longer time scales. We argue that the mass of the black hole in RE J1034+396 is likely to be ˜3 × 106 M⊙, based on the similarity of the observed QPO to the high frequency QPO seen in the Galactic black hole binary, GRS 1915+105.

  16. Human θ burst stimulation enhances subsequent motor learning and increases performance variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teo, James T H; Swayne, Orlando B C; Cheeran, Binith; Greenwood, Richard J; Rothwell, John C

    2011-07-01

    Intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) transiently increases motor cortex excitability in healthy humans by a process thought to involve synaptic long-term potentiation (LTP), and this is enhanced by nicotine. Acquisition of a ballistic motor task is likewise accompanied by increased excitability and presumed intracortical LTP. Here, we test how iTBS and nicotine influences subsequent motor learning. Ten healthy subjects participated in a double-blinded placebo-controlled trial testing the effects of iTBS and nicotine. iTBS alone increased the rate of learning but this increase was blocked by nicotine. We then investigated factors other than synaptic strengthening that may play a role. Behavioral analysis and modeling suggested that iTBS increased performance variability, which correlated with learning outcome. A control experiment confirmed the increase in motor output variability by showing that iTBS increased the dispersion of involuntary transcranial magnetic stimulation-evoked thumb movements. We suggest that in addition to the effect on synaptic plasticity, iTBS may have facilitated performance by increasing motor output variability; nicotine negated this effect on variability perhaps via increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in cerebral cortex.

  17. Long-term exposure to endogenous levels of tributyltin decreases GluR2 expression and increases neuronal vulnerability to glutamate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakatsu, Yusuke; Kotake, Yaichiro; Takishita, Tomoko; Ohta, Shigeru

    2009-01-01

    Tributyltin (TBT), an endocrine-disrupting chemical, has been used commercially as a heat stabilizer, agricultural pesticide and component of antifouling paints. In this study, we investigated the effect of long-term exposure to endogenous levels of TBT on neuronal glutamate receptors. Cultured rat cortical neurons were exposed to 1-50 nM TBT for 9 days (from day 2 to day 10 in vitro). The number of neurons was reduced by long-term exposure to 50 nM TBT, but not to 1-20 nM TBT. Long-term exposure to 20 nM TBT decreased the mRNA expression of glutamate receptors NR1, NR2A, GluR1 and GluR2, and increased that of NR2B, GluR3 and GluR4. GluR2 protein was also reduced by long-term exposure to TBT. Because AMPA receptor lacking GluR2 exhibits Ca 2+ permeability, we investigated whether Ca 2+ influx or glutamate toxicity was affected. Indeed, glutamate-induced Ca 2+ influx was increased in TBT-treated neurons. Consistent with this, neurons became more susceptible to glutamate toxicity as a result of long-term exposure to TBT and this susceptibility was abolished by an antagonist of GluR2-lacking AMPA receptor. Thus, it is suggested that long-term exposure to endogenous levels of TBT induces a decrease of GluR2 protein, causing neurons become more susceptible to glutamate toxicity.

  18. Long-term exposure to endogenous levels of tributyltin decreases GluR2 expression and increases neuronal vulnerability to glutamate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakatsu, Yusuke; Kotake, Yaichiro; Takishita, Tomoko; Ohta, Shigeru

    2009-10-15

    Tributyltin (TBT), an endocrine-disrupting chemical, has been used commercially as a heat stabilizer, agricultural pesticide and component of antifouling paints. In this study, we investigated the effect of long-term exposure to endogenous levels of TBT on neuronal glutamate receptors. Cultured rat cortical neurons were exposed to 1-50 nM TBT for 9 days (from day 2 to day 10 in vitro). The number of neurons was reduced by long-term exposure to 50 nM TBT, but not to 1-20 nM TBT. Long-term exposure to 20 nM TBT decreased the mRNA expression of glutamate receptors NR1, NR2A, GluR1 and GluR2, and increased that of NR2B, GluR3 and GluR4. GluR2 protein was also reduced by long-term exposure to TBT. Because AMPA receptor lacking GluR2 exhibits Ca2+ permeability, we investigated whether Ca2+ influx or glutamate toxicity was affected. Indeed, glutamate-induced Ca2+ influx was increased in TBT-treated neurons. Consistent with this, neurons became more susceptible to glutamate toxicity as a result of long-term exposure to TBT and this susceptibility was abolished by an antagonist of GluR2-lacking AMPA receptor. Thus, it is suggested that long-term exposure to endogenous levels of TBT induces a decrease of GluR2 protein, causing neurons become more susceptible to glutamate toxicity.

  19. Effects of short-term variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in permafrost regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, Christian; Porada, Philipp; Ekici, Altug; Brakebusch, Matthias

    2018-03-01

    Effects of the short-term temporal variability of meteorological variables on soil temperature in northern high-latitude regions have been investigated. For this, a process-oriented land surface model has been driven using an artificially manipulated climate dataset. Short-term climate variability mainly impacts snow depth, and the thermal diffusivity of lichens and bryophytes. These impacts of climate variability on insulating surface layers together substantially alter the heat exchange between atmosphere and soil. As a result, soil temperature is 0.1 to 0.8 °C higher when climate variability is reduced. Earth system models project warming of the Arctic region but also increasing variability of meteorological variables and more often extreme meteorological events. Therefore, our results show that projected future increases in permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness in response to climate change will be lower (i) when taking into account future changes in short-term variability of meteorological variables and (ii) when representing dynamic snow and lichen and bryophyte functions in land surface models.

  20. Chemotherapy increases long-term survival in patients with adult medulloblastoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kocakaya, Selin; Beier, Christoph Patrick; Beier, Dagmar

    2016-01-01

    chemotherapy first-line survived significantly longer (mOS: 108 mo, 95% CI: 68.6-148.4) than patients treated with radiation alone (mOS: 57 mo, 95% CI: 39.6-74.4) or patients who received chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. This effect was not biased by tumor stage or decade of treatment. Importantly, (neo...... parts of treatment regimes; however, established prognostic factors and data clarifying the role of chemotherapy are missing. METHODS: We investigated 227 publications from 1969-2013, with 907 identifiable, individual patients being available for meta-analysis. Demographic data, risk stratification......)adjuvant chemotherapy also significantly increased the chance for long-term survival (>5 y) compared with radiotherapy alone or chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis clarifies relevant prognostic factors and suggests that chemotherapy as part of first-line therapy improves overall survival...

  1. Anastomotic Leak Increases Distant Recurrence and Long-Term Mortality After Curative Resection for Colonic Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krarup, Peter-Martin; Nordholm-Carstensen, Andreas; Jorgensen, Lars N

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of anastomotic leak (AL) on disease recurrence and long-term mortality in patients alive 120 days after curative resection for colonic cancer. BACKGROUND: There is no solid data as to whether AL after colonic cancer surgery increases the risk of disease...

  2. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    The network dedicated to Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) in the United States has grown to 24 sites since it was formed in 1980. Long-term research and monitoring are performed on parameters thatare basic to all ecosystems and are required to understand patterns, processes, and relationship to change. Collectively, the sites in the LTER Network provide opportunities to contrast marine, coastal, and continental regions, the full range of climatic gradients existing in North America, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats in a range of ecosystem types. The combination of common core areas and long-term research and monitoring in many habitats have allowed unprecedented abilities to understand and compare complex temporal and spatial dynamics associated with issues like climate change, effects of pollution, biodiversity and landuse. For example, McMurdo Dry Valley in the Antarctic has demonstrated an increase in glacier mass since 1993 which coincides with a period of cooler than normal summers and more than average snowfall. In contrast, the Bonanza Creek and Toolik Lake sites in Alaska have recorded a warming period unprecedented in the past 200 years. Nitrogen deposition effects have been identified through long-term watershed studies on biogeochemical cycles, especially at Coweeta Hydrological Lab, Harvard Forest, and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. In aquatic systems, such as the Northern Temperate Lakes site, long-term data revealed time lags in effects of invaders and disturbance on lake communities. Biological recovery from an effect such as lake acidification was shown to lag behind chemical recovery. The long-term changes documented over 2 decades have been instrumental in influencing management practices in many of the LTER areas. In Puerto Rico, the Luquillo LTER demonstrated that dams obstruct migrations of fish and freshwater shrimp and water abstraction at low flows can completely obliterate downstream migration of juveniles and damage

  3. Increased mitochondrial energy efficiency in skeletal muscle after long-term fasting: its relevance to animal performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourguignon, Aurore; Rameau, Anaïs; Toullec, Gaëlle; Romestaing, Caroline; Roussel, Damien

    2017-07-01

    In the final stage of fasting, skeletal muscle mass and protein content drastically decrease when the maintenance of efficient locomotor activity becomes crucial for animals to reactivate feeding behaviour and survive a very long period of starvation. As mitochondrial metabolism represents the main physiological link between the endogenous energy store and animal performance, the aim of this study was to determine how a very long, natural period of fasting affected skeletal muscle mitochondrial bioenergetics in king penguin ( Aptenodytes patagonicus ) chicks. Rates of mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation were measured in pectoralis permeabilized fibres and isolated mitochondria. Mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency and the activities of respiratory chain complexes were measured in mitochondria isolated from pectoralis muscle. Results from long-term (4-5 months) naturally fasted chicks were compared with those from short-term (10 day) fasted birds. The respiratory activities of muscle fibres and isolated mitochondria were reduced by 60% and 45%, respectively, on average in long-term fasted chicks compared with short-term fasted birds. Oxidative capacity and mitochondrial content of pectoralis muscle were lowered by long-term fasting. Bioenergetic analysis of pectoralis muscle also revealed that mitochondria were, on average, 25% more energy efficient in the final stage of fasting (4-5 months) than after 10 days of fasting (short-term fasted birds). These results suggest that the strong reduction in respiratory capacity of pectoralis muscle was partly alleviated by increased mitochondrial ATP synthesis efficiency. Such oxidative phosphorylation optimization can impact animal performance, e.g. the metabolic cost of locomotion or the foraging efficiency. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  4. Inverse roles of emotional labour on health and job satisfaction among long-term care workers in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukamoto, Erika; Abe, Takeru; Ono, Michikazu

    2015-01-01

    Emotional labour increases among long-term care workers because providing care and services to impaired elders causes conflicting interpersonal emotions. Thus, we investigated the associations between emotional labour, general health and job satisfaction among long-term care workers. We conducted a cross-sectional study among 132 established, private day care centres in Tokyo using a mail survey. The outcome variables included two health-related variables and four job satisfaction variables: physical and psychological health, satisfaction with wages, interpersonal relationships, work environment and job satisfaction. We performed multiple regression analyses to identify significant factors. Directors from 36 facilities agreed to participate. A total of 123 responses from long-term care workers were analysed. Greater emotional dissonance was associated with better physical and psychological health and worse work environment satisfaction (partial regression coefficient: -2.93, p = .0389; -3.32, p = .0299; -1.92, p = .0314, respectively). Fewer negative emotions were associated with more job satisfaction (partial regression coefficient: -1.87, p = .0163). We found that emotional labour was significantly inversely associated with health and job satisfaction. Our findings indicated that the emotional labour of long-term care workers has a negative and positive influence on health and workplace satisfaction, and suggests that care quality and stable employment among long-term care workers might affect their emotional labour. Therefore, we think a programme to support emotional labour among long-term care workers in an organized manner and a self-care programme to educate workers regarding emotional labour would be beneficial.

  5. On the long-term analysis with finite elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argyris, J.H.; Szimmat, J.; Willam, K.J.

    1975-01-01

    Following a presentation of concrete creep, a brief summary of the direct and incremental calculation methods on long-term behaviour is given. This is followed by a survey of the method of the inner state variables, which on the one hand gives a uniform framework for the various formulations of concrete creep, and on the other hand leads to a computer-ready calculation process. Two examples on long-term behaviour illustrate the regions of application of the computer methods. (orig./LH) [de

  6. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  7. Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kinsey, B.H.; Hoddinott, J; Alderman, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of pre-school malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects - instrumental variables (MFE-IV) estimator with a long term panel data set. Representations of civil war and drought shocks are used to identify

  8. Long-term variability of heat waves in Argentina and recurrence probability of the severe 2008 heat wave in Buenos Aires

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rusticucci, M.; Kyselý, Jan; Almeira, G.; Lhotka, Ondřej

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 124, č. 3 (2016), s. 679-689 ISSN 0177-798X R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7AMB15AR001 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : heat waves * long-term variability * climate extremes Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.640, year: 2016 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-015-1445-7

  9. Long-Term Variability of the Sun in the Context of Solar-Analog Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egeland, Ricky

    2018-06-01

    The Sun is the best observed object in astrophysics, but despite this distinction the nature of its well-ordered generation of magnetic field in 11-year activity cycles remains a mystery. In this work, we place the solar cycle in a broader context by examining the long-term variability of solar analog stars within 5% of the solar effective temperature, but varied in rotation rate and metallicity. Emission in the Fraunhofer H & K line cores from singly-ionized calcium in the lower chromosphere is due to magnetic heating, and is a proven proxy for magnetic flux on the Sun. We use Ca H & K observations from the Mount Wilson Observatory HK project, the Lowell Observatory Solar Stellar Spectrograph, and other sources to construct composite activity time series of over 100 years in length for the Sun and up to 50 years for 26 nearby solar analogs. Archival Ca H & K observations of reflected sunlight from the Moon using the Mount Wilson instrument allow us to properly calibrate the solar time series to the S-index scale used in stellar studies. We find the mean solar S-index to be 5–9% lower than previously estimated, and the amplitude of activity to be small compared to active stars in our sample. A detailed look at the young solar analog HD 30495, which rotates 2.3 times faster than the Sun, reveals a large amplitude ~12-year activity cycle and an intermittent short-period variation of 1.7 years, comparable to the solar variability time scales despite its faster rotation. Finally, time series analyses of the solar analog ensemble and a quantitative analysis of results from the literature indicate that truly Sun-like cyclic variability is rare, and that the amplitude of activity over both long and short timescales is linearly proportional to the mean activity. We conclude that the physical conditions conducive to a quasi-periodic magnetic activity cycle like the Sun’s are rare in stars of approximately the solar mass, and that the proper conditions may be restricted

  10. Long-term variability of extreme waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobroliubov, Sergey

    2013-04-01

    In order to study extreme storm waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Sea we used the spectral wave model SWAN. Significant wave height, swell and sea height, direction of propagation, their length and period were calculated with the NCEP/NCAR (1,9°x1,9°, 4-daily) reanalysis wind forcing from 1948 to 2010 in the Caspian, Black and Baltic Seas and with the NCEP/CFSR (0,3°x0,3°, 1 hour) for the period from 1979 to 2010 in the Azov Sea. The calculations were performed on supercomputers of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU). The spatial resolution of the numerical grid was of order 5 km for the Caspian, Baltic and Black Seas, 2 km for the Azov Sea. These model wave hindcasts were used to calculate interannual and seasonal variability of the storm frequency, location and duration. The Initial Distribution Method and Annual Maxima Series Methods were used to study probable waves of a century reoccurrence. The long-term variability of extreme waves revealed different trends in the investigated seas. The Caspian and Azov seas decreased the storm activity, while in the Baltic Sea the number of storm cases increased and the Black Sea showed no significant trend. The of more than 12 m were observed in two centers in the middle part of the Caspian Sea and in the center of the Baltic Sea. In the Black Sea the extreme waves of the same probability of more than 14 m were found in the region to the south of the Crimean peninsula. In the Azov Sea the highest waves of a century reoccurrence do not exceed 5 m. The work was done in Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory, MSU under contract G.34.31.0007.

  11. Future climate warming increases Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fyke, J.G.; Vizcaino, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Price, S.

    2014-01-01

    The integrated surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has large interannual variability. Long-term future changes to this variability will affect GrIS dynamics, freshwater fluxes, regional oceanography, and detection of changes in ice volume trends. Here we analyze a simulated

  12. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

  13. Magnitude of increase in QTc interval after initiation of dofetilide in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation is associated with increased rates of pharmacological cardioversion and long-term freedom from recurrent atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Henry D; Waks, Jonathan W; Steinhaus, Daniel A; Zimetbaum, Peter

    2016-07-01

    Dofetilide is a class III antiarrhythmic drug approved for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Dofetilide-induced corrected QT (QTc) interval prolongation is a surrogate for the degree of drug effect, but the relationships between drug-induced QTc interval prolongation, pharmacological cardioversion (PCV), and freedom from recurrent AF are unclear. The purpose of this study was to assess associations between QTc interval change during dofetilide initiation and PCV and long-term AF recurrence. We performed retrospective analyses of a prospective cohort of patients with AF admitted for dofetilide initiation between 2001 and 2014. Clinical characteristics and electrocardiographic variables were assessed. We evaluated outcomes of successful PCV in patients with persistent AF and time to recurrence of AF in patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF. During the study, 243 patients with persistent AF and 176 patients with paroxysmal AF initiated dofetilide. PCV occurred in 93/243 (41.7%) patients with persistent AF. After multivariable adjustment, QTc interval change was associated with PCV (adjusted odds ratio 1.21; P = .003 per 10-ms QTc increase). Inhospital QTc interval change was associated with long-term freedom from AF in patients with persistent AF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.92; P = .011 at 4 years per 10-ms QTc increase), but not in patients with paroxysmal AF. In patients with persistent AF, PCV was also associated with long-term freedom from recurrent AF (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62; P = .009 at 4 years). The magnitude of QTc interval prolongation during dofetilide initiation is an independent predictor of successful PCV and long-term freedom from arrhythmia in patients with persistent AF. QTc interval change had no association with AF recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF, suggesting that different mechanisms of arrhythmogenesis may be operant in different AF types. Copyright © 2016 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Dynamic sensorimotor planning during long-term sequence learning: the role of variability, response chunking and planning errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstynen, Timothy; Phillips, Jeff; Braun, Emily; Workman, Brett; Schunn, Christian; Schneider, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Many everyday skills are learned by binding otherwise independent actions into a unified sequence of responses across days or weeks of practice. Here we looked at how the dynamics of action planning and response binding change across such long timescales. Subjects (N = 23) were trained on a bimanual version of the serial reaction time task (32-item sequence) for two weeks (10 days total). Response times and accuracy both showed improvement with time, but appeared to be learned at different rates. Changes in response speed across training were associated with dynamic changes in response time variability, with faster learners expanding their variability during the early training days and then contracting response variability late in training. Using a novel measure of response chunking, we found that individual responses became temporally correlated across trials and asymptoted to set sizes of approximately 7 bound responses at the end of the first week of training. Finally, we used a state-space model of the response planning process to look at how predictive (i.e., response anticipation) and error-corrective (i.e., post-error slowing) processes correlated with learning rates for speed, accuracy and chunking. This analysis yielded non-monotonic association patterns between the state-space model parameters and learning rates, suggesting that different parts of the response planning process are relevant at different stages of long-term learning. These findings highlight the dynamic modulation of response speed, variability, accuracy and chunking as multiple movements become bound together into a larger set of responses during sequence learning.

  15. The Long Term Effect on Children of Increasing the Length of Parents' Birth Related Leave

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wurtz, Astrid

    related leave from 14 to 20 weeks. We use differences-in-differences regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of the leave reform and it estimated whether such a large increase in the mandated leave period has a large measurable and persistent effect on children's cognitive...... and educational outcomes. A 100% sample Danish population born in May, June, July, and August 1983, 1984, and 1985 and a dataset with Danish PISA-2000 scores are used for the estimations. Preliminary results indicate there is no positive effect on children's cognitive outcomes from increasing parents' mandated......    The length of parents' total birth related leave was increased with almost 50% in 1984 in Denmark. The previous length of the Danish maternity leave was long, especially compared to e.g. the U.S. today. This paper investigates the long term effects on children of increasing length of birth...

  16. The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

    2001-01-01

    Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

  17. IS THE PRICE RIGHT? PRICING FOR LONG TERM PROFITABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Erika NYÁRÁDI

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The way how we choose our pricing strategy has a significant impact on company’s success. Nowadays companies more and more adopt a new way of thinking in pricing, namely pricing for a long term period in order to bring higher profitability, to build an efficient pricing strategy. Marketers have only recently begun to focus seriously on effective pricing. These companies are the so called progressive companies. They have begun doing more than just worrying about pricing. To increase profitability many are abandoning traditional reactive pricing procedures in favor of proactive pricing, making explicit corporate decisions to change their focus to growth in top-line sales to growth in profitability. The long-term implications of price strategies are still under-researched, and managers should be aware of shifts in customer reactions that may result from frequent adoption of certain strategies. The company pricing strategy should be seen in relation to developments in the company variables, internal ones (capital strength, competencies, organizational conditions, efficiency of the work force etc. as well as external ones (customers, competitors, the technological development etc., adopting strategic pricing. In this paper I will present the most effective pricing strategies leading to long term profitability, and also suggest practical conditions for pricing strategies to maximize profit in the long run.

  18. Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lague, D.; Davy, P.

    2008-12-01

    Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width

  19. Employer-sponsored long-term care insurance: best practices for increasing sponsorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, J

    2000-04-01

    Behind the enthusiasm of policymakers for long-term care (LTC) insurance is the belief that increased ownership of private LTC insurance will reduce the government's future liability for financing the nation's LTC needs, currently projected by the Congressional Budget Office to increase by 2.6 percent annually between 2000 and 2040. Some observers say that sustained economic growth could keep these increased expenditures at the same share of total GDP; others argue that current federal expenditure trends will become unsustainable without large tax increases. The potential of the employer-sponsored group LTC market to stave off a national LTC financing crisis has recently started to receive popular notice in the news media. However, for the potential of the group LTC market to be realized, there must be widespread employer sponsorship of group LTC plans and significant participation levels among eligible employees in these plans. The present analysis of industry data estimates the LTC plan sponsorship rate for all U.S. employers with 10 or more employees at 0.2 percent. The sponsorship rate among large employers is significantly higher (8.7 percent). The greatest growth opportunities are projected to lie in the smaller employer market, because it is enormous and virtually untapped. Nonsponsors cite a variety of barriers to employer sponsorship of LTC plans. For many nonsponsors, the most important obstacles are the intrinsic characteristics of their work forces: employees are too young, transient, part-time, and/or low-income to be suitable for LTC insurance. For many others, lack of awareness and low priority are the primary obstacles. Because group LTC insurance has been widely available for only 10 years, many benefits managers view it as "too new and untested." Prior to the passage of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), in August 1996, the tax treatment of long-term care insurance premiums was unclear because Congress had not

  20. Innovative Strategy For Long Term Monitoring Of Metal And Radionuclide Plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eddy-Dilek, Carol; Millings, Margaret R.; Looney, Brian B.; Denham, Miles E.

    2014-01-01

    Many government and private industry sites that were once contaminated with radioactive and chemical wastes cannot be cleaned up enough to permit unrestricted human access. The sites will require long term management, in some cases indefinitely, leaving site owners with the challenge of protecting human health and environmental quality at these 'legacy' sites. Long-term monitoring of groundwater contamination is one of the largest projected costs in the life cycle of environmental management at the Savannah River Site, the larger DOE complex, and many large federal and private sites. There is a need to optimize the performance and manage the cost of long term surveillance and monitoring at their sites. Currently, SRNL is initiating a pilot field test using alternative protocols for long term monitoring of metals and radionuclides. A key component of the approach is that monitoring efforts are focused on measurement of low cost metrics related to hydrologic and chemical conditions that control contaminant migration. The strategy combines careful monitoring of hydrologic boundary conditions with measurement of master variables such as chemical surrogates along with a smaller number of standard well analyses. In plumes contaminated with metals, master variables control the chemistry of the groundwater system, and include redox variables (ORP, DO, chemicals), pH, specific conductivity, biological community (breakdown/decay products), and temperature. Significant changes in these variables will result in conditions whereby the plume may not be stable and therefore can be used to predict possible plume migration. Conversely, concentration measurements for all types of contaminants in groundwater are a lagging indicator plume movement - major changes contaminant concentrations indicate that contamination has migrated. An approach based on measurement of master variables and explicit monitoring of hydrologic boundary conditions combined with traditional metrics should lead

  1. Innovative Strategy For Long Term Monitoring Of Metal And Radionuclide Plumes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eddy-Dilek, Carol; Millings, Margaret R.; Looney, Brian B.; Denham, Miles E.

    2014-01-08

    Many government and private industry sites that were once contaminated with radioactive and chemical wastes cannot be cleaned up enough to permit unrestricted human access. The sites will require long term management, in some cases indefinitely, leaving site owners with the challenge of protecting human health and environmental quality at these "legacy" sites. Long-term monitoring of groundwater contamination is one of the largest projected costs in the life cycle of environmental management at the Savannah River Site, the larger DOE complex, and many large federal and private sites. There is a need to optimize the performance and manage the cost of long term surveillance and monitoring at their sites. Currently, SRNL is initiating a pilot field test using alternative protocols for long term monitoring of metals and radionuclides. A key component of the approach is that monitoring efforts are focused on measurement of low cost metrics related to hydrologic and chemical conditions that control contaminant migration. The strategy combines careful monitoring of hydrologic boundary conditions with measurement of master variables such as chemical surrogates along with a smaller number of standard well analyses. In plumes contaminated with metals, master variables control the chemistry of the groundwater system, and include redox variables (ORP, DO, chemicals), pH, specific conductivity, biological community (breakdown/decay products), and temperature. Significant changes in these variables will result in conditions whereby the plume may not be stable and therefore can be used to predict possible plume migration. Conversely, concentration measurements for all types of contaminants in groundwater are a lagging indicator plume movement - major changes contaminant concentrations indicate that contamination has migrated. An approach based on measurement of master variables and explicit monitoring of hydrologic boundary conditions combined with traditional metrics should lead

  2. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Philandras

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

    The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

  3. Long time scale hard X-ray variability in Seyfert 1 galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Alex Gary

    This dissertation examines the relationship between long-term X-ray variability characteristics, black hole mass, and luminosity of Seyfert 1 Active Galactic Nuclei. High dynamic range power spectral density functions (PSDs) have been constructed for six Seyfert 1 galaxies. These PSDs show "breaks" or characteristic time scales, typically on the order of a few days. There is resemblance to PSDs of lower-mass Galactic X-ray binaries (XRBs), with the ratios of putative black hole masses and variability time scales approximately the same (106--7) between the two classes of objects. The data are consistent with a linear correlation between Seyfert PSD break time scale and black hole mass estimate; the relation extrapolates reasonably well over 6--7 orders of magnitude to XRBs. All of this strengthens the case for a physical similarity between Seyfert galaxies and XRBs. The first six years of RXTE monitoring of Seyfert 1s have been systematically analyzed to probe hard X-ray variability on multiple time scales in a total of 19 Seyfert is in an expansion of the survey of Markowitz & Edelson (2001). Correlations between variability amplitude, luminosity, and black hole mass are explored, the data support the model of PSD movement with black hole mass suggested by the PSD survey. All of the continuum variability results are consistent with relatively more massive black holes hosting larger X-ray emission regions, resulting in 'slower' observed variability. Nearly all sources in the sample exhibit stronger variability towards softer energies, consistent with softening as they brighten. Direct time-resolved spectral fitting has been performed on continuous RXTE monitoring of seven Seyfert is to study long-term spectral variability and Fe Kalpha variability characteristics. The Fe Kalpha line displays a wide range of behavior but varies less strongly than the broadband continuum. Overall, however, there is no strong evidence for correlated variability between the line and

  4. The influence of flood frequency, riparian vegetation and threshold on long-term river transport capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Davy, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Climate fluctuations at geological timescales control the capacity of rivers to transport sediment with consequences on geochemical cycles, sedimentary basins dynamics and sedimentation/tectonics interactions. While the impact of differential friction generated by riparian vegetation has been studied for individual flood events, its impact on the long-term sediment transport capacity of rivers, modulated by the frequency of floods remains unknown. Here, we investigate this effect on a simplified river-floodplain configuration obeying observed hydraulic scaling laws. We numerically integrate the full-frequency magnitude distribution of discharge events and its impact on the transport capacity of bedload and suspended material for various level of vegetation-linked differential friction. We demonstrate that riparian vegetation by acting as a virtual confinement of the flow i) increases significantly the instantaneous transport capacity of the river independently of the transport mode and ii) increases the long term bedload transport rates as a function of discharge variability. Our results expose the dominance of flood frequency rather than riparian vegetation on the long term sediment transport capacity. Therefore, flood frequency has to be considered when evaluating long-term bedload transport capacity while floodplain vegetation is important only in high discharge variability regimes. By comparing the transport capacity of unconfined alluvial rivers and confined bedrock gorges, we demonstrate that the latter always presents the highest long term transport capacity at equivalent width and slope. The loss of confinement at the transition between bedrock and alluvial river must be compensated by a widening or a steepening of the alluvial channel to avoid infinite storage. Because steepening is never observed in natural system, we compute the alluvial widening factor value that varies between 3 to 11 times the width of the bedrock channel depending on riparian

  5. Long-term cigarette smoking is associated with increased myocardial perfusion heterogeneity assessed by positron emission tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meeder, J.G. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Blanksma, P.K. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Wall, E.E. van der [Department of Cardiology, University Hospital, Leiden (Netherlands); Anthonio, R.L. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Willemsen, A.T.M. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Pruim, J. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Vaalburg, W. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands); Lie, K.I. [Department of Cardiology and National Research PET Center, University Hospital, Groningen (Netherlands)

    1996-11-01

    The pathophysiology of smoking-related coronary events in patients with normal coronary arteries is incompletely understood. This study was conducted to explore, in subjects without symptoms of cardiovascular disease, the long-term effects of smoking on regional coronary artery vasoactivity, especially during sympathetic stimulation. In ten smoking and ten non-smoking sex- and age-matched healthy volunteers, segmental myocardial perfusion was studied using dynamic parametric nitrogen-13 ammonia positron emission tomography at rest and during sympathetic stimulation evoked by the cold pressor stimulation. Smokers demonstrated a higher myocardial perfusion at rest (116{+-}17 ml/min/100 g vs 96{+-}20 ml/min/100 g, P <0.01) and an impaired myocardial perfusion increase during cold pressor stimulation (1.02{+-}0.15 vs 1.18{+-}0.17, P <0.05). The heterogeneity of perfusion, expressed as coefficient of variation, was significantly different between the smoking and the non-smoking group. The coefficient of variation of segmental myocardial perfusion was higher in smokers at rest (17.5%{+-}4.2% vs 13.5%{+-}1.9%, P <0.05) and during cold pressor stimulation (17.0%{+-}3.2% vs 13.9%{+-}1.8%, P <0.05). We conclude that the long-term effects of smoking in healthy volunteers are associated with (1) increased myocardial perfusion at rest, (2) impaired myocardial perfusion response to cold pressor stimulation, and (3) increased myocardial perfusion heterogeneity both at rest and during cold pressor stimulation. These results may suggest that in healthy subjects the long-term effect of smoking is related to abnormal coronary artery vasoactivity, presumably induced by an interplay of regional endothelial dysfunction and autonomic dysregulation. (orig.). With 1 fig., 1 tab.

  6. [Psychosocial issues of long-term cancer survivors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weis, J; Faller, H

    2012-04-01

    Although cancer incidence rates are increasing, recent statistical studies suggest that cancer patients are showing higher cure rates as well as improved overall survival rates for most cancer locations. These advances are explained by improved strategies in early diagnoses as well as improved cancer therapies. Therefore, the number of long-term cancer survivors has also increased, but only few studies, especially within the last years, have focused on psychosocial issues of this subgroup. Some studies show that overall quality of life of long-term cancer survivors is quite high and comparable to that of the normal population. Nevertheless, a substantial percentage of former patients shows reduced quality of life and suffers from various sequelae of cancer and its treatment. This review focuses on the most common psychosocial issue of long-term survivors such as reduced psychological wellbeing, neuropsychological deficits and cancer-related fatigue syndrome. Finally, recommendations for problem-oriented interventions as well as improvement of psychosocial care of long-term survivors are given.

  7. Understanding the factors behind the decision to purchase varying coverage amounts of long-term care insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, N; Cohen, M A; Bishop, C E; Wallack, S S

    1995-02-01

    This article examines the factors related to an individual's decision to purchase a given amount of long-term care insurance coverage. DATA SOURCE AND STUDY SETTING: Primary data analyses were conducted on an estimation sample of 6,545 individuals who had purchased long-term care (LTC) insurance policies in late 1990 and early 1991, and 1,248 individuals who had been approached by agents but chose not to buy such insurance. Companies contributing the two samples represented 45 percent of total sales during the study year. A two-stage logit-OLS (ordinary least squares) choice-based sampling model was used to examine the relationship between the expected value of purchased coverage and explanatory variables that included: demographic traits, attitudes, risk premium, nursing home bed supply, and Medicaid program configurations. Mail surveys were used to collect information about individuals' reasons for purchase, attitudes about long-term care, and demographic characteristics. Through an identification code, information on the policy designs chosen by these individuals was linked to each of the returned mail surveys. The response rate to the survey was about 60 percent. The model explains about 47 percent of the variance in the dependent variable-expected value of policy coverage. Important variables negatively associated with the dependent variable include advancing age, being married, and having less than a college education. Variables positively related include being male, having more income, and having increasing expected LTC costs. Medicaid program configuration also influences the level of benefits purchased: state reimbursement rates and the presence of comprehensive estate recovery programs are both positively related to the expected value of purchased benefits. Finally, as the difference between the premium charged and the actuarially fair premium increases, individuals buy less coverage. An important finding with implications for policymakers is that changes

  8. Long-Term Planning in Restructured Power Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun

    2003-01-01

    This thesis describes the development of three decision support models for long-term investment planning in restructured power systems. The model concepts address the changing conditions for the electric power industry, with the introduction of more competitive markets, higher uncertainty and less centralised planning. Under these circumstances there is an emerging need for new planning models, also for analyses of the power system in a long-term perspective. The thesis focuses particularly on how dynamic and stochastic modelling can contribute to the improvement of decision making in a restructured power industry. We argue that the use of such modelling approaches has become more important after the introduction of competitive power markets, due to the participants' increased exposure to price fluctuations and economic risk. Our models can be applied by individual participants in the power system to evaluate investment projects for new power generation capacity. The models can also serve as a decision support tool on a regulatory level, providing analyses of the long-term performance of the power system under different regulations and market designs. In Chapter 1, we give a brief introduction to the ongoing development towards restructuring and liberalisation of the electrical power system. A discussion of the operation and organisation of restructured power systems is also provided. In Chapter 2, we look more specifically at different modelling approaches for expansion planning in electrical power systems. We also discuss how the contributions in this thesis compare to previous work in the field of decision support models for long-term planning in both regulated and competitive power systems. In Chapter 3, we develop a power market simulation model based on system dynamics. The advantages and limitations of using descriptive system dynamics models for long-term planning purposes in this context are also discussed. Chapter 4 is devoted to a novel optimisation

  9. Long-term stability of diurnal salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoluda, Nadine; La Marca, Roberto; Gollwitzer, Mario; Müller, Andreas; Limm, Heribert; Marten-Mittag, Birgitt; Gündel, Harald; Angerer, Peter; Nater, Urs M

    2017-06-01

    This study aimed to investigate long-term stability and variability of diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase patterns. Diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns were assessed on a single workday with three waves of measurement across a total time period of 24months in 189 participants. Separate hierarchical linear models were analyzed, with and without a number of potential predictor variables (age, BMI, smoking, chronic stress, stress reactivity). While low long-term stability was found in diurnal cortisol, the stability of diurnal alpha-amylase was moderate across the time period of 24months. Several predictor variables had a positive impact on diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase secretion patterns averaged across waves. Our findings underpin the notion that long-term stability is not necessarily warranted in longitudinal studies. It is important to choose an appropriate study design when attempting to disentangle clinically and biologically relevant changes from naturally occurring variations in diurnal cortisol and alpha-amylase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. LONG-TERM FOLLOW-UP OF PATIENTS WITH RETINITIS PIGMENTOSA TYPE 12 CAUSED BY CRB1 MUTATIONS : A Severe Phenotype With Considerable Interindividual Variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mathijssen, Inge B; Florijn, Ralph J; van den Born, L Ingeborgh; Zekveld-Vroon, Renate C; Ten Brink, Jacoline B; Plomp, Astrid S; Baas, Frank; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Bergen, Arthur A B; van Schooneveld, Mary J

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: To examine the long-term clinical course and variability in a large pedigree segregating CRB1 type autosomal recessive retinitis pigmentosa. METHODS: An observational case study of 30 patients with CRB1 type autosomal recessive retinitis pigmentosa, homozygous for the CRB1 c.3122T > C;

  11. Increasing adolescent HIV prevalence in Eastern Zimbabwe--evidence of long-term survivors of mother-to-child transmission?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey W Eaton

    Full Text Available Recent data from the Manicaland HIV/STD Prevention Project, a general-population open HIV cohort study, suggested that between 2004 and 2007 HIV prevalence amongst males aged 15-17 years in eastern Zimbabwe increased from 1.20% to 2.23%, and in females remained unchanged at 2.23% to 2.39%, while prevalence continued to decline in the rest of the adult population. We assess whether the more likely source of the increase in adolescent HIV prevalence is recent sexual HIV acquisition, or the aging of long-term survivors of perinatal HIV acquisition that occurred during the early growth of the epidemic. Using data collected between August 2006 and November 2008, we investigated associations between adolescent HIV and (1 maternal orphanhood and maternal HIV status, (2 reported sexual behaviour, and (3 reporting recurring sickness or chronic illness, suggesting infected adolescents might be in a late stage of HIV infection. HIV-infected adolescent males were more likely to be maternal orphans (RR = 2.97, p<0.001 and both HIV-infected adolescent males and females were more likely to be maternal orphans or have an HIV-infected mother (male RR = 1.83, p<0.001; female RR = 16.6, p<0.001. None of 22 HIV-infected adolescent males and only three of 23 HIV-infected females reported ever having had sex. HIV-infected adolescents were 60% more likely to report illness than HIV-infected young adults. Taken together, all three hypotheses suggest that recent increases in adolescent HIV prevalence in eastern Zimbabwe are more likely attributable to long-term survival of mother-to-child transmission rather than increases in risky sexual behaviour. HIV prevalence in adolescents and young adults cannot be used as a surrogate for recent HIV incidence, and health systems should prepare for increasing numbers of long-term infected adolescents.

  12. Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

  13. Long-term cigarette smoking is associated with increased myocardial perfusion heterogeneity assessed by positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meeder, J.G.; Blanksma, P.K.; Wall, E.E. van der; Anthonio, R.L.; Willemsen, A.T.M.; Pruim, J.; Vaalburg, W.; Lie, K.I.

    1996-01-01

    The pathophysiology of smoking-related coronary events in patients with normal coronary arteries is incompletely understood. This study was conducted to explore, in subjects without symptoms of cardiovascular disease, the long-term effects of smoking on regional coronary artery vasoactivity, especially during sympathetic stimulation. In ten smoking and ten non-smoking sex- and age-matched healthy volunteers, segmental myocardial perfusion was studied using dynamic parametric nitrogen-13 ammonia positron emission tomography at rest and during sympathetic stimulation evoked by the cold pressor stimulation. Smokers demonstrated a higher myocardial perfusion at rest (116±17 ml/min/100 g vs 96±20 ml/min/100 g, P <0.01) and an impaired myocardial perfusion increase during cold pressor stimulation (1.02±0.15 vs 1.18±0.17, P <0.05). The heterogeneity of perfusion, expressed as coefficient of variation, was significantly different between the smoking and the non-smoking group. The coefficient of variation of segmental myocardial perfusion was higher in smokers at rest (17.5%±4.2% vs 13.5%±1.9%, P <0.05) and during cold pressor stimulation (17.0%±3.2% vs 13.9%±1.8%, P <0.05). We conclude that the long-term effects of smoking in healthy volunteers are associated with (1) increased myocardial perfusion at rest, (2) impaired myocardial perfusion response to cold pressor stimulation, and (3) increased myocardial perfusion heterogeneity both at rest and during cold pressor stimulation. These results may suggest that in healthy subjects the long-term effect of smoking is related to abnormal coronary artery vasoactivity, presumably induced by an interplay of regional endothelial dysfunction and autonomic dysregulation. (orig.). With 1 fig., 1 tab

  14. Selflessness is sexy: reported helping behaviour increases desirability of men and women as long-term sexual partners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, David; Wigby, Stuart; English, Sinead; Wong, Sonny; Székely, Tamás; Harrison, Freya

    2013-09-03

    Despite its short-term costs, behaviour that appears altruistic can increase an individual's inclusive fitness by earning direct (selfish) and/or indirect (kin-selected) benefits. An evolved preference for other-regarding or helping behaviour in potential mates has been proposed as an additional mechanism by which these behaviours can yield direct fitness benefits in humans. We asked 32 heterosexual women and 35 heterosexual men to rate the attractiveness of members of the opposite sex in the presence and the absence of information about helping behaviours. Reports of helping behaviour were associated with a significant increase in the attractiveness of both men and women as potential long-term sexual partners. Altruism also increased the attractiveness of men as potential partners for short-term flings, but to a lesser extent than when the same men were being considered for long-term relationships. Altruism did not affect the attractiveness of women as partners for short-term flings. Our results unite two important areas of evolutionary theory - social evolution and sexual selection - and extend the list of means by which helping behaviours, which appear at first glance to be costly to the actor, can in fact earn direct fitness benefits. Helping behaviours may be attractive because they signal 'good genes' and/or because they are perceived as a signal of likely provision of non-genetic benefits (e.g. parental care). Exactly why helping behaviours in a non-mating context might be attractive to potential mates, and whether they are honest signals of mate quality, remains to be elucidated.

  15. Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korinko M.D.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

  16. Private long-term care insurance and state tax incentives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, David G; Frank, Richard G; Tau, Jocelyn

    2009-01-01

    To increase the role of private insurance in financing long-term care, tax incentives for long-term care insurance have been implemented at both the federal and state levels. To date, there has been surprisingly little study of these initiatives. Using a panel of national data, we find that market take-up for long-term care insurance increased over the last decade, but state tax incentives were responsible for only a small portion of this growth. Ultimately, the modest ability of state tax incentives to lower premiums implies that they should be viewed as a small piece of the long-term care financing puzzle.

  17. Plants increase laccase activity in soil with long-term elevated CO2 legacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Partavian, Asrin; Mikkelsen, Teis Nørgaard; Vestergård, Mette

    2015-01-01

    [CO2] stimulate laccase activity. We incubated soil exposed to seven years of elevated or ambient field [CO2] in ambient or elevated [CO2] chambers for six months either with or without plants (Deschampsia flexuosa). Elevated chamber [CO2] increased D. flexuosa production and belowground respiration....... Interestingly, plants also grew larger in soil with an elevated [CO2] legacy. Plants stimulated soil microbial biomass, belowground respiration and laccase activity, and the plant-induced laccase stimulation was particularly apparent in soil exposed to long-term elevated [CO2] in the field, whereas laccase......Actively growing plants can stimulate mineralization of recalcitrant soil organic matter (SOM), and increased atmospheric [CO2] can further enhance such plant-mediated SOM degradation. Laccases are central for recalcitrant SOM decomposition, and we therefore hypothesized that plants and elevated...

  18. Expanding research capabilities with sea ice climate records for analysis of long-term climate change and short-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, D. J.; Meier, W. N.

    2008-12-01

    Recent sea ice analysis is leading to predictions of a sea ice-free summertime in the Arctic within 20 years, or even sooner. Sea ice topics, such as concentration, extent, motion, and age, are predominately studied using satellite data. At the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), passive microwave sea ice data sets provide timely assessments of seasonal-scale variability as well as consistent long-term climate data records. Such data sets are crucial to understanding changes and assessing their impacts. Noticeable impacts of changing sea ice conditions on native cultures and wildlife in the Arctic region are now being documented. With continued deterioration in Arctic sea ice, global economic impacts will be seen as new shipping routes open. NSIDC is at the forefront of making climate data records available to address the changes in sea ice and its global impacts. By focusing on integrated data sets, NSIDC leads the way by broadening the studies of sea ice beyond the traditional cryospheric community.

  19. Survival and cardiovascular events after coarctation-repair in long-term follow-up (COAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, P; Pabst von Ohain, J; Kaemmerer, H; Ewert, P; Hager, A

    2017-02-01

    Long-term sequelae and events after coarctation repair are well described. However, the predictive value of variables from clinical follow-up investigation for late events and survival has rarely been investigated. All patients who participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for reevaluation of survival, current clinical status and major cardiovascular events. Of 273 eligible patients, 209 were available for follow-up. Nine patients had died at a median age of 46years (range 30-64years), five of them due to cardiovascular complications. Late mortality after surgical intervention was 5.7% with a median age of 41years (range 16-64years). Twenty-five patients had a major cardiovascular event: 12 had procedures at the aortic valve or aortic arch, 8 had procedures for restenosis, 2 had endocarditis, 2 had a cerebrovascular insult and 1 an aortic dissection. The presence of bicuspid aortic valve (p=0.009), brachial-ankle blood pressure gradient >20mmHg (p<0.001) and reduced left ventricular function (p=0.002) correlated with major cardiovascular events. Surgical correction of coarctation of the aorta shows fairly low mortality in the long-term follow-up. Late morbidities include recoarctation, but also the consequences of the hemodynamics produced by a congenital bicuspid aortic valve, presence of which is predictive for aortic valve procedures: however the predictive value of clinical variables is limited. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  20. Observational evidence of a long-term increase in precipitation due to urbanization effects and its implications for sustainable urban living.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wai, K M; Wang, X M; Lin, T H; Wong, M S; Zeng, S K; He, N; Ng, E; Lau, K; Wang, D H

    2017-12-01

    Although projected precipitation increases in East Asia due to future climate change have aroused concern, less attention has been paid by the scientific community and public to the potential long-term increase in precipitation due to rapid urbanization. A ten-year precipitation dataset was analysed for both a rapidly urbanized megacity and nearby suburban/rural stations in southern China. Rapid urbanization in the megacity was evident from satellite observations. A statistically significant, long-term, increasing trend of precipitation existed only at the megacity station (45.6mm per decade) and not at the other stations. The increase was attributed to thermal and dynamical modifications of the tropospheric boundary layer related to urbanization, which was confirmed by the results of our WRF-SLUCM simulations. The results also suggested that a long-term regional increase in precipitation, caused by greenhouse gas-induced climate change, for instance, was not evident within the study period. The urbanization-induced increase was found to be higher than the precipitation increase (18.3mm per decade) expected from future climate change. The direct climate impacts due to rapid urbanization is highlighted with strong implications for urban sustainable development and the planning of effective adaptation strategies for issues such as coastal defenses, mosquito-borne disease spread and heat stress mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. The Long-Term Effect on Children of Increasing the Length of Parents' Birth-Related Leave

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wurtz, Astrid

    The length of parents. birth-related leave varies across countries and has been subject of some debate. I investigate the long-term e¤ects on children of increasing the length of parents.birth-related leave using a natural experiment from 1984 in Denmark when the leave length was increased from 14...... to 20 weeks. Regression discontinuity design is used to identify the causal e¤ect of the reform. A population sample of children born in 1984 and a dataset with PISA-2000 scores are used for the analysis. Results indicate that increasing parents. access to birth-related leave has no measurable e...

  2. Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

  3. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    67

    ABSTRACT. Arid and semiarid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible ...

  4. Long-term nitrogen regulation of forest carbon sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Luo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    It is well established that nitrogen (N) limits plant production but unclear how N regulates long-term terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration in response to rising atmospheric C dioxide (CO2)(Luo et al., 2004). Most experimental evidence on C-N interactions is primarily derived from short-term CO2 manipulative studies (e.g. Oren et al., 2001; Reich et al., 2006a), which abruptly increase C inputs into ecosystems and N demand from soil while atmospheric CO2 concentration in the real world is gradually increasing over time (Luo & Reynolds, 1999). It is essential to examine long-term N regulations of C sequestration in natural ecosystems. Here we present results of a synthesis of more than 100 studies on long-term C-N interactions during secondary succession. C significantly accumulates in plant, litter and forest floor in most studies, and in mineral soil in one-third studies during stand development. Substantial increases in C stock are tightly coupled with N accretion. The C: N ratio in plant increases with stand age in most cases, but remains relatively constant in litter, forest floor and mineral soil. Our results suggest that natural ecosystems could have the intrinsic capacity to maintain long-term C sequestration through external N accrual, high N use efficiency, and efficient internal N cycling.

  5. How consistent are global long-term satellite LAI products in terms of interannual variability and trend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.; Fang, H.

    2016-12-01

    Proper usage of global satellite LAI products requires comprehensive evaluation. To address this issue, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup proposed a four-stage validation hierarchy. During the past decade, great efforts have been made following this validation framework, mainly focused on absolute magnitude, seasonal trajectory, and spatial pattern of those global satellite LAI products. However, interannual variability and trends of global satellite LAI products have been investigated marginally. Targeting on this gap, we made an intercomparison between seven global satellite LAI datasets, including four short-term ones: MODIS C5, MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and three long-term products ones: LAI3g, GLASS, and GLOBMAP. We calculated global annual LAI time series for each dataset, among which we found substantial differences. During the overlapped period (2003 - 2011), MODIS C5, GLASS and GLOBMAP have positive correlation (r > 0.6) between each other, while MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and LAI3g are highly consistent (r > 0.7) in interannual variations. However, the previous three datasets show negative trends, all of which use MODIS C5 reflectance data, whereas the latter four show positive trends, using MODIS C6, SPOT/VGT, ENVISAT/MERIS, and NOAA/AVHRR, respectively. During the pre-MODIS era (1982 - 1999), the three AVHRR-based datasets (LAI3g, GLASS and GLOBMAP) agree well (r > 0.7), yet all of them show oscillation related with NOAA platform changes. In addition, both GLASS and GLOBMAP show clear cut-points around 2000 when they move from AVHRR to MODIS. Such inconsistency is also visible for GEOV1, which uses SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 before and after 2002. We further investigate the map-to-map deviations among these products. This study highlights that continuous sensor calibration and cross calibration are essential to obtain reliable global LAI time series.

  6. Beat-to-beat variability of QT intervals is increased in patients with drug-induced long-QT syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinterseer, Martin; Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard; Beckmann, Britt-Maria

    2008-01-01

    Torsades de pointes arrhythmias (TdP) occur by definition in the setting of prolonged QT intervals. Animal models of drug induced Long-QT syndrome (dLQTS) have shown higher predictive value for proarrhythmia with beat-to-beat variability of repolarization duration (BVR) when compared with QT inte...... intervals. Here, we evaluate variability of QT intervals in patients with a history of drug-induced long QT syndrome (dLQTS) and TdP in absence of a mutation in any of the major LQTS genes.......Torsades de pointes arrhythmias (TdP) occur by definition in the setting of prolonged QT intervals. Animal models of drug induced Long-QT syndrome (dLQTS) have shown higher predictive value for proarrhythmia with beat-to-beat variability of repolarization duration (BVR) when compared with QT...

  7. A Combined Syntactical and Statistical Approach for R Peak Detection in Real-Time Long-Term Heart Rate Variability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Pang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-term heart rate variability (HRV analysis is useful as a noninvasive technique for autonomic nervous system activity assessment. It provides a method for assessing many physiological and pathological factors that modulate the normal heartbeat. The performance of HRV analysis systems heavily depends on a reliable and accurate detection of the R peak of the QRS complex. Ectopic beats caused by misdetection or arrhythmic events can introduce bias into HRV results, resulting in significant problems in their interpretation. This study presents a novel method for long-term detection of normal R peaks (which represent the normal heartbeat in electrocardiographic signals, intended specifically for HRV analysis. The very low computational complexity of the proposed method, which combines and exploits the advantages of syntactical and statistical approaches, enables real-time applications. The approach was validated using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology–Beth Israel Hospital Normal Sinus Rhythm and the Fantasia database, and has a sensitivity, positive predictivity, detection error rate, and accuracy of 99.998, 99.999, 0.003, and 99.996%, respectively.

  8. Drivers of inter-annual variation and long-term change in High-Arctic spider species abundances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bowden, Joseph J.; Hansen, Oskar L. P.; Olsen, Kent

    2018-01-01

    Understanding how species abundances vary in space and time is a central theme in ecology, yet there are few long-term field studies of terrestrial invertebrate abundances and the determinants of their dynamics. This is particularly relevant in the context of rapid climate change occurring...... in the Arctic. Arthropods can serve as strong indicators of ecosystem change due to their sensitivity to increasing temperatures and other environmental variables. We used spider samples collected by pitfall trapping from three different habitats (fen, mesic and arid heath) in High-Arctic Greenland to assess...... interpretation of long-term trends. We used model selection to determine which climatic variables and/or previous years’ abundance best explained annual variation in species abundances over this period. We identified and used 28 566 adult spiders that comprised eight species. Most notably, the abundances of some...

  9. Increased ectomycorrhizal fungal abundance after long-term fertilization and warming of two arctic tundra ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Karina Engelbrecht; Michelsen, Anders; Jonasson, Sven Evert

    2006-01-01

    . This was caused partly by increased dominance of EM plants and partly by stimulation of EM mycelial growth. •  We conclude that cycling of carbon and nitrogen through EM fungi will increase when strongly nutrient-limited arctic ecosystems are exposed to a warmer and more nutrient-rich environment. This has...... the response in EM fungal abundance to long-term warming and fertilization in two arctic ecosystems with contrasting responses of the EM shrub Betula nana. •  Ergosterol was used as a biomarker for living fungal biomass in roots and organic soil and ingrowth bags were used to estimate EM mycelial production...

  10. Sleep Quality, Short-Term and Long-Term CPAP Adherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somiah, Manya; Taxin, Zachary; Keating, Joseph; Mooney, Anne M.; Norman, Robert G.; Rapoport, David M.; Ayappa, Indu

    2012-01-01

    Study Objectives: Adherence to CPAP therapy is low in patients with obstructive sleep apnea/hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS). The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the utility of measures of sleep architecture and sleep continuity on the CPAP titration study as predictors of both short- and long-term CPAP adherence. Methods: 93 patients with OSAHS (RDI 42.8 ± 34.3/h) underwent in-laboratory diagnostic polysomnography, CPAP titration, and follow-up polysomnography (NPSG) on CPAP. Adherence to CPAP was objectively monitored. Short-term (ST) CPAP adherence was averaged over 14 days immediately following the titration study. Long-term (LT) CPAP adherence was obtained in 56/93 patients after approximately 2 months of CPAP use. Patients were grouped into CPAP adherence groups for ST ( 4 h) and LT adherence ( 4 h). Sleep architecture, sleep disordered breathing (SDB) indices, and daytime outcome variables from the diagnostic and titration NPSGs were compared between CPAP adherence groups. Results: There was a significant relationship between ST and LT CPAP adherence (r = 0.81, p CPAP adherence groups had significantly lower %N2 and greater %REM on the titration NPSG. A model combining change in sleep efficiency and change in sleep continuity between the diagnostic and titration NPSGs predicted 17% of the variance in LT adherence (p = 0.006). Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that characteristics of sleep architecture, even on the titration NPSG, may predict some of the variance in CPAP adherence. Better sleep quality on the titration night was related to better CPAP adherence, suggesting that interventions to improve sleep on/prior to the CPAP titration study might be used as a therapeutic intervention to improve CPAP adherence. Citation: Somiah M; Taxin Z; Keating J; Mooney AM; Norman RG; Rapoport DM; Ayappa I. Sleep quality, short-term and long-term CPAP adherence. J Clin Sleep Med 2012;8(5):489-500. PMID:23066359

  11. Daily Course of CO2 Fluxes in the Atmosphere-Water System and Variable Fluorescence of Phytoplankton during the Open-Water Period for Lake Baikal according to Long-Term Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavoruev, V. V.; Domysheva, V. M.; Pestunov, D. A.; Sakirko, M. V.; Panchenko, M. V.

    2018-04-01

    The process of gas exchange of CO2 in the atmosphere-water system and its relation to the daily course of variable fluorescence of phytoplankton is studied on the basis of long-term (2004-2014) measurements during the open water period for Lake Baikal. It is found that the decrease in photosynthetic activity of plankton is almost synchronous to the increase in the CO2 flux from atmosphere to water. It follows from comparison of the spring and summer data with December measurements that the daily decrease in variable fluorescence of phytoplankton is caused by the internal daily rhythm of the photosynthetic activity of plankton.

  12. Diverse Long-term Variability of Five Candidate High-mass X-Ray Binaries from Swift Burst Alert Telescope Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corbet, Robin H. D. [University of Maryland, Baltimore County, MD 21250 (United States); Coley, Joel B. [NASA Postdoctoral Program, and Astroparticle Physics Laboratory, Code 661 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt Road, MD 20771 (United States); Krimm, Hans A., E-mail: corbet@umbc.edu [Universities Space Research Association, 10211 Wincopin Circle, Suite 500, Columbia, MD 21044 (United States)

    2017-09-10

    We present an investigation of long-term modulation in the X-ray light curves of five little-studied candidate high-mass X-ray binaries using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. IGR J14488-5942 and AX J1700.2-4220 show strong modulation at periods of 49.6 and 44 days, respectively, which are interpreted as orbital periods of Be star systems. For IGR J14488-5942, observations with the Swift X-ray Telescope show a hint of pulsations at 33.4 s. For AX J1700.2-4220, 54 s pulsations were previously found with XMM-Newton . Swift J1816.7-1613 exhibits complicated behavior. The strongest peak in the power spectrum is at a period near 150 days, but this conflicts with a determination of a period of 118.5 days by La Parola et al. AX J1820.5-1434 has been proposed to exhibit modulation near 54 days, but the extended BAT observations suggest modulation at slightly longer than double this at approximately 111 days. There appears to be a long-term change in the shape of the modulation near 111 days, which may explain the apparent discrepancy. The X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+090, which was previously proposed to be a Be star system with an orbital period of ∼30 days from pulse timing, shows peaks in the power spectrum at 81 and 173 days. The origins of these periods are unclear, although they might be the orbital period and a superorbital period respectively. For all five sources, the long-term variability, together with the combination of orbital and proposed pulse periods, suggests that the sources contain Be star mass donors.

  13. Long-term trends in the abundance and community structure of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... increased predation by top predators. Another mechanism contributing to the long-term increase in zooplankton is the observed long-term intensification of coastal upwelling, which could enhance primary and secondary production, and increase advective input of zooplankton populations into the study area and augment ...

  14. Intermediate-term and long-term mortality among acute medical patients hospitalized with community-acquired sepsis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Daniel P; Pottegård, Anton; Laursen, Christian B

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Admission with severe sepsis is associated with an increased short-term mortality, but it is unestablished whether sepsis severity has an impact on intermediate-term and long-term mortality following admission to an acute medical admission unit. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a populat......OBJECTIVE: Admission with severe sepsis is associated with an increased short-term mortality, but it is unestablished whether sepsis severity has an impact on intermediate-term and long-term mortality following admission to an acute medical admission unit. PATIENTS AND METHODS......: This was a population-based study of all adults admitted to an acute medical admission unit, Odense University Hospital, Denmark, from September 2010 to August 2011, identified by symptoms and clinical findings. We categorized the mortality periods into intermediate-term (31-180 days) and long-term (181-365, 366...

  15. Long-term predictive capability of erosion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veerabhadra, P.; Buckley, D. H.

    1983-01-01

    A brief overview of long-term cavitation and liquid impingement erosion and modeling methods proposed by different investigators, including the curve-fit approach is presented. A table was prepared to highlight the number of variables necessary for each model in order to compute the erosion-versus-time curves. A power law relation based on the average erosion rate is suggested which may solve several modeling problems.

  16. Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P

    2017-09-27

    Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.; Van Arkel, W.G.; Boots, M.G.

    2004-01-01

    To our knowledge, so far amazingly little research work has been undertaken to construct meaningful indicators of long-run energy supply security for a particular nation or region. Currently, in addressing energy supply security, policy makers tend to emphasise short-term supply disruptions. In contrast, this pre-study accords with the broader Sustainability Outlook in considering the long-term perspective. This report starts with taking stock, in a concise way, of the official EU energy outlook and issues related to the opportunities to administer changes in the energy mix at the level of major energy use categories. Then a brief survey of relevant literature is made on long-term strategies to ensure survival of systems - be it biological, social, etc. - in an environment largely characterised by high uncertainty and a lot of unchartered territory. We found the work of Andrew Stirling very inspiring in this context. Based on his work and considering the limitations of the present research activity, we retained the Shannon index as the best 'simple' indicator of diversity. In the core of the report, the Shannon index is elaborated into four indicators of long-term energy supply security. Stepwise, additional aspects of long-term energy supply security are introduced. These aspects are: Diversification of energy sources in energy supply; Diversification of imports with respect to imported energy sources; Long-term political stability in regions of origin; The resource base in regions of origin, including the home region/country itself. After small adjustments to allow for data availability, these indicators were applied to the reference year 2030 of four long-term scenarios with data of base year 1995 and projections for underlying variables provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). Preliminary interpretation of the results suggests the usefulness of the indicators presented in this report. A second activity undertaken in this report was

  18. Increased Butyrate Production During Long-Term Fermentation of In Vitro-Digested High Amylose Cornstarch Residues with Human Feces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Jiang, Hongxin; Kim, Hyun-Jung; Yum, Man-Yu; Campbell, Mark R; Jane, Jay-Lin; White, Pamela J; Hendrich, Suzanne

    2015-09-01

    An in vitro semi-continuous long-term (3 wk) anaerobic incubation system simulating lower gut fermentation was used to determine variability in gut microbial metabolism between 4 predigested high amylose-resistant starch residues (SR): SRV, SRVI, SRVII, and SRGEMS in human fecal samples. Subjects participated twice, 5 mo apart: 30 in Phase I (15 lean, 9 overweight and 6 obese), 29 in Phase II (15 lean, 9 overweight, 5 obese); 13 of 15 lean subjects participated in both phases. Of the 4 SRs, SRV displayed the highest gelatinization temperature, peak temperature, enthalpy changes, and the least digestibility compared with the other SRs. In both phases, compared with blank controls, all SRs increased butyrate ∼2-fold which stabilized at week 2 and only SRV caused greater propionate concentration (∼30%) after 3 wk which might have been partly mediated by its lesser digestibility. Fecal samples from lean and overweight/obese subjects incubated with SRs showed similar short-chain fatty acid production across both time points, which suggests that resistant starch may benefit individuals across BMIs. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

  19. Long-term meditation is associated with increased gray matter density in the brain stem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard-Poulsen, Peter; Beek, Martijn van; Skewes, Joshua

    2009-01-01

    density in lower brain stem regions of experienced meditators compared with age-matched nonmeditators. Our findings show that long-term practitioners of meditation have structural differences in brainstem regions concerned with cardiorespiratory control. This could account for some......Extensive practice involving sustained attention can lead to changes in brain structure. Here, we report evidence of structural differences in the lower brainstem of participants engaged in the long-term practice of meditation. Using magnetic resonance imaging, we observed higher gray matter...

  20. Nitrogen deposition outweighs climatic variability in driving annual growth rate of canopy beech trees: Evidence from long-term growth reconstruction across a geographic gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentilesca, Tiziana; Rita, Angelo; Brunetti, Michele; Giammarchi, Francesco; Leonardi, Stefano; Magnani, Federico; van Noije, Twan; Tonon, Giustino; Borghetti, Marco

    2018-07-01

    In this study, we investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long-term tree growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. We sampled dominant trees at different developmental stages (from young to mature tree cohorts, with tree ages spanning from 35 to 160 years) and used stem analysis to infer historic reconstruction of tree volume and dominant height. Annual growth volume (G V ) and height (G H ) variability were related to annual variability in model simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition and site-specific climatic variables, (i.e. mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, mean growing period temperature, total growing period precipitation, and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index) and atmospheric CO 2 concentration, including tree cambial age among growth predictors. Generalized additive models (GAM), linear mixed-effects models (LMM), and Bayesian regression models (BRM) were independently employed to assess explanatory variables. The main results from our study were as follows: (i) tree age was the main explanatory variable for long-term growth variability; (ii) GAM, LMM, and BRM results consistently indicated climatic variables and CO 2 effects on G V and G H were weak, therefore evidence of recent climatic variability influence on beech annual growth rates was limited in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula; (iii) instead, significant positive nitrogen deposition (N dep ) effects were repeatedly observed in G V and G H ; the positive effects of N dep on canopy height growth rates, which tended to level off at N dep values greater than approximately 1.0 g m -2  y -1 , were interpreted as positive impacts on forest stand above-ground net productivity at the selected study sites. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Assessing the associative deficit of older adults in long-term and short-term/working memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tina; Naveh-Benjamin, Moshe

    2012-09-01

    Older adults exhibit a deficit in associative long-term memory relative to younger adults. However, the literature is inconclusive regarding whether this deficit is attenuated in short-term/working memory. To elucidate the issue, three experiments assessed younger and older adults' item and interitem associative memory and the effects of several variables that might potentially contribute to the inconsistent pattern of results in previous studies. In Experiment 1, participants were tested on item and associative recognition memory with both long-term and short-term retention intervals in a single, continuous recognition paradigm. There was an associative deficit for older adults in the short-term and long-term intervals. Using only short-term intervals, Experiment 2 utilized mixed and blocked test designs to examine the effect of test event salience. Blocking the test did not attenuate the age-related associative deficit seen in the mixed test blocks. Finally, an age-related associative deficit was found in Experiment 3, under both sequential and simultaneous presentation conditions. Even while accounting for some methodological issues, the associative deficit of older adults is evident in short-term/working memory.

  2. Observation of long term potentiation in papain-based memory devices

    KAUST Repository

    Bag, A.; Hota, Mrinal Kanti; Mallik, Sandipan B.; Maì ti, Chinmay Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Biological synaptic behavior in terms of long term potentiation has been observed in papain-based (plant protein) memory devices (memristors) for the first time. Improvement in long term potentiation depends on pulse amplitude and width (duration). Continuous/repetitive dc voltage sweep leads to an increase in memristor conductivity leading to a long term memory in the 'learning' processes.

  3. Observation of long term potentiation in papain-based memory devices

    KAUST Repository

    Bag, A.

    2014-06-01

    Biological synaptic behavior in terms of long term potentiation has been observed in papain-based (plant protein) memory devices (memristors) for the first time. Improvement in long term potentiation depends on pulse amplitude and width (duration). Continuous/repetitive dc voltage sweep leads to an increase in memristor conductivity leading to a long term memory in the \\'learning\\' processes.

  4. Marital stability, satisfaction and well-being in old age: variability and continuity in long-term continuously married older persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margelisch, Katja; Schneewind, Klaus A; Violette, Jeanine; Perrig-Chiello, Pasqualina

    2017-04-01

    Recent research shows that the well-documented positive effects of marital stability on well-being and health outcomes are conditional upon the quality of marriage. To date, few studies have explored the relationship between marital satisfaction, well-being and health among very long-term married individuals. This study aims at identifying groups of long-term married persons with respect to marital satisfaction and comparing them longitudinally concerning their well-being outcomes, marital stressors, personality and socio-demographic variables. Data are derived from a survey (data collection 2012 and 2014) with 374 continuously married individuals at wave 1 (mean age: 74.2 years, length of marriage: 49.2 years) and 252 at wave 2. Cluster analyses were performed comparing the clusters with regard to various well-being outcomes. The predictive power of cluster affiliation and various predictors at wave 1 on well-being outcomes at wave 2 was tested using regression analyses. Two groups were identified, one happily the other unhappily married, with the happily married scoring higher on all well-being and health outcomes. Regression analyses revealed that group affiliation at wave 1 was not any longer predictive of health, emotional loneliness and hopelessness two years later, when taking into account socio-demographic variables, psychological resilience and marital strain, whereas it remained an important predictor of life satisfaction and social loneliness. Marital satisfaction is associated with health and well-being in older couples over time, whereas psychological resilience and marital strain are major predictors explaining the variance of these outcomes.

  5. Avian malaria in a boreal resident species: long-term temporal variability, and increased prevalence in birds with avian keratin disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Laura C.; Handel, Colleen M.; Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Loiseau, Claire; Sehgal, Ravinder N. M.

    2016-01-01

    The prevalence of vector-borne parasitic diseases is widely influenced by biological and ecological factors. Environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation can have a marked effect on haemosporidian parasites (Plasmodium spp.) that cause malaria and those that cause other malaria-like diseases in birds. However, there have been few long-term studies monitoring haemosporidian infections in birds in northern latitudes, where weather conditions can be highly variable and the effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced. We used molecular methods to screen more than 2,000 blood samples collected from black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus), a resident passerine bird. Samples were collected over a 10 year period, mostly during the non-breeding season, at seven sites in Alaska, USA. We tested for associations between Plasmodium prevalence and local environmental conditions including temperature, precipitation, site, year and season. We also evaluated the relationship between parasite prevalence and individual host factors of age, sex and presence or absence of avian keratin disorder. This disease, which causes accelerated keratin growth in the beak, provided a natural study system in which to test the interaction between disease state and malaria prevalence. Prevalence of Plasmodium infection varied by year, site, age and individual disease status but there was no support for an effect of sex or seasonal period. Significantly, birds with avian keratin disorder were 2.6 times more likely to be infected by Plasmodium than birds without the disorder. Interannual variation in the prevalence of Plasmodium infection at different sites was positively correlated with summer temperatures at the local but not statewide scale. Sequence analysis of the parasite cytochrome b gene revealed a single Plasmodiumspp. lineage, P43. Our results demonstrate associations between prevalence of avian malaria and a variety of biological and

  6. Short-term versus long-term market opportunities and financial constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrari, Angelo

    1999-01-01

    This presentation discusses gas developments in Europe, the European Gas Directive, short term vs. long term, and Snam's new challenges. The European gas market is characterized by (1) The role of gas in meeting the demand for energy, which varies greatly from one country to another, (2) A growing market, (3) Decreasing role of domestic production, and (4) Increasing imports. Within the European Union, the Gas Directive aims to transform single national markets into one integrated European market by introducing third party access to the network for eligible clients as a means of increasing the competition between operators. The Gas Directive would appear to modify the form of the market rather than its size, and in particular the sharing of responsibility and risk among operators. The market in the future will offer operators the possibility to exploit opportunities deriving mainly from demands for increased flexibility. Opportunities linked to entrepreneurial initiatives require long-term investments characteristic of the gas business. Risks and opportunities must be balanced evenly between different operators. If everyone takes on their own risks and responsibilities, this means a wider distribution of the risks of long-term vs. short-term, currently borne by the gas companies that are integrated, into a market that tends to favour the short-term. A gradual liberalization process should allow incumbent operators to gradually diversify their activities in new gas market areas or enter new business activities. They could move beyond their local and European boundaries in pursuit of an international dimension. The market will have to make the transition from the national to the European dimension: as an example, Snam covers 90% of the Italian market, but its share of an integrated European market will be about 15%

  7. A least squares approach for efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2017-01-01

    The uncertainties related to long-term forecasts of oil prices impose significant financial risk on ventures of oil production. To minimize risk, oil companies are inclined to maximize profit over short-term horizons ranging from months to a few years. In contrast, conventional production...... optimization maximizes long-term profits over horizons that span more than a decade. To address this challenge, the oil literature has introduced short-term versus long-term optimization. Ideally, this problem is solved by a posteriori multi-objective optimization methods that generate an approximation...... the balance between the objectives, leaving an unfulfilled potential to increase profits. To promote efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization, this paper introduces a natural way to characterize desirable Pareto points and proposes a novel least squares (LS) method. Unlike hierarchical...

  8. Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy V.P. Bliss

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

  9. Increased short- and long-term mortality in 8146 hospitalised peptic ulcer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmi, H; Kautiainen, H; Virta, L J; Färkkilä, M A

    2016-08-01

    Incidence and complications of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) have declined, but mortality from peptic ulcer bleeding has remained unchanged. The few recent studies on mortality associated with both uncomplicated and complicated patients with peptic ulcer disease provide contradictory results. To evaluate short- and long-term mortality, and the main causes of death in peptic ulcer disease. In this retrospective epidemiologic cohort study, register data on 8146 adult patients hospitalised with peptic ulcer disease during 2000-2008 were collected in the capital region of Finland. All were followed in the National Cause of Death Register until the end of 2009. The data were linked with the nationwide Drug Purchase Register of the Finnish Social Insurance Institution. Mean follow-up time was 4.9 years. Overall mortality was substantially increased, standardised mortality ratio 2.53 (95% CI: 2.44-2.63); 3.7% died within 30 days, and 11.8% within 1 year. At 6 months, the survival of patients with perforated or bleeding ulcer was lower compared to those with uncomplicated ulcer; hazard ratios were 2.06 (1.68-2.04) and 1.32 (1.11-1.58), respectively. For perforated duodenal ulcers, both the short- and long-term survival was significantly impaired in women. The main causes of mortality at 1 year were malignancies and cardiovascular diseases. Previous use of statins was associated with significant reduction in all-cause mortality. One-year mortality in patients hospitalised with peptic ulcer disease remained high with no change. This peptic ulcer disease cohort had a clearly decreased survival rate up to 10 years, especially among women with a perforated duodenal ulcer, most likely explained by poorer survival due to underlying comorbidity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Long-term outcome of Tunisian children with primary ciliary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is rare. Its diagnosis requires experienced specialists and expensive infrastructure. Its prognosis is variable. Objective: To study the long-term outcome of PCD in Tunisian children with ciliary ultra-structure defects detected by electron microscope. Methods: Covering a period of ...

  11. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Long-Term Trend and Seasonal Variability of Horizontal Visibility in Nigerian Troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtar Balarabe

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A study of the long-term variability; trend and characteristics of visibility in four zones of Nigeria was carried out. Visibility and other meteorological data from NOAA-NCDC and aerosol index data over Nigeria during 1984–2013 are analyzed using time series and  simple regression model. There are significant decreasing trends for every region and season during the 30-years period; the fluctuations exhibited nearly similar pattern. The 30-year mean visibilities for the four zones (Sahel; North Central; Southern; and Coastal were 13.8 ± 3.9; 14.3 ± 4.2; 13.6 ± 3.5 and 12.8 ± 3.1 km with decreasing trends at the rates of 0.08; 0.06; 0.02 and 0.02 km/year. In all the zones; visibilities were better in summer while worse in Harmattan (dry season. During summer visibility was best in Sahel and North-central; however; in Harmattan visibility was best in southern and coastal zones. It was best between May and June (17.6; 18.9; 16.6 and 15.1 km with a second peak in September. The 30-year seasonal averages were 16.2 ± 2.1; 16.8 ± 2.4; 15.4 ± 1.8 and 14.0 ± 2.2 km in summer; and 10.2 ± 2.5; 10.9 ± 2.9; 11.0 ± 3.3 and 11.4 ± 3.0 km in Harmattan for the respective zones. Sahel and North Central had the worse visibility reduction during Harmattan compared with Southern and coastal areas. An analysis based on simple regression equation reveals a strong and negative relationship between visibility on one hand; AI; and AOD on the other hand. The analysis also discusses the variability regarding the frequency of occurrence of a dust storm; dust haze; and good visibility over the period of study.

  13. Long-Term Field Performance of Pervious Concrete Pavement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandra Radlińska

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The work described in this paper provides an evaluation of an aged pervious concrete pavement in the Northeastern United States to provide a better understanding of the long-lasting effects of placement techniques as well as the long-term field performance of porous pavement, specifically in areas susceptible to freezing and thawing. Multiple samples were taken from the existing pavement and were examined in terms of porosity and unit weight, compressive and splitting tensile strength, and the depth and degree of clogging. It was concluded that improper placement and curing led to uneven pavement thickness, irregular pore distribution within the pervious concrete, and highly variable strength values across the site, as well as sealed surfaces that prevented infiltration.

  14. Long-Term Treatment with Paroxetine Increases Verbal Declarative Memory and Hippocampal Volume in Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermetten, Eric; Vythilingam, Meena; Southwick, Steven M.; Charney, Dennis S.; Bremner, J. Douglas

    2011-01-01

    Background Animal studies have shown that stress is associated with damage to the hippocampus, inhibition of neurogenesis, and deficits in hippocampal-based memory dysfunction. Studies in patients with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) found deficits in hippocampal-based declarative verbal memory and smaller hippocampal volume, as measured with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Recent preclinical evidence has shown that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors promote neurogenesis and reverse the effects of stress on hippocampal atrophy. This study assessed the effects of long-term treatment with paroxetine on hippocampal volume and declarative memory performance in PTSD. Methods Declarative memory was assessed with the Wechsler Memory Scale–Revised and Selective Reminding Test before and after 9–12 months of treatment with paroxetine in PTSD. Hippocampal volume was measured with MRI. Of the 28 patients who started the protocol, 23 completed the full course of treatment and neuropsychological testing. Twenty patients were able to complete MRI imaging. Results Patients with PTSD showed a significant improvement in PTSD symptoms with treatment. Treatment resulted in significant improvements in verbal declarative memory and a 4.6% increase in mean hippocampal volume. Conclusions These findings suggest that long-term treatment with paroxetine is associated with improvement of verbal declarative memory deficits and an increase in hippocampal volume in PTSD. PMID:14512209

  15. Long term repeated prescribed burning increases evenness in the basidiomycete laccase gene pool in forest soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artz, Rebekka R E; Reid, Eileen; Anderson, Ian C; Campbell, Colin D; Cairney, John W G

    2009-03-01

    Repeated prescribed burning alters the biologically labile fraction of nutrients and carbon of soil organic matter (SOM). Using a long-term (30 years) repeated burning experiment where burning has been carried out at a 2- or 4-year frequency, we analysed the effect of prescribed burning on gross potential C turnover rates and phenol oxidase activity in relation to shifts in SOM composition as observed using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. In tandem, we assessed the genetic diversity of basidiomycete laccases. While the overall effect of burning was a decline in phenol oxidase activity, Shannon diversity and evenness of laccases was significantly higher in burned sites. Co-correspondence analysis of SOM composition and laccase operational taxonomic unit frequency data also suggested a strong correlation. While this correlation could indicate that the observed increase in laccase genetic diversity due to burning is due to increased resource diversity, a temporal replacement of the most abundant members of the assembly by an otherwise dormant pool of fungi cannot be excluded. As such, our results fit the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. Effects were stronger in plots burned in 2-year rotations, suggesting that the 4-year burn frequency may be a more sustainable practice to ensure the long-term stability of C cycling in such ecosystems.

  16. Natural gas market assessment: Long-term Canadian natural gas contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-08-01

    A descriptive analysis is presented of the changes which have occurred and the developing trends in the long-term Canadian contracts governing the sale of western Canadian gas into the domestic and export markets from 1985 to 1991. The report is limited to domestic and export contracts for Canadian gas and does not include imported gas under contract. Contract structures prior to deregulation, the changing role of long-term contracts, size and duration of long-term contracts, and terms and conditions of long-term contracts are discussed. Important changes since the mid-1980s include: increased flexibility in long-term contracts enabling the parties to respond more readily to changing supply and demand conditions; greater balance between the buyer's obligation to purchase and the seller's obligation to deliver; flexible and increasingly simple pricing terms that track competitive market conditions; shorter contract terms; reduced contract volumes as smaller end-users and producer/marketers enter the market; and unbundling of gas sales and transportation service providing a wider range of contracting choices and options. 36 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Giglio

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001–2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997–2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3 estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

  18. Short-term and long-term effects of GDP on traffic deaths in 18 OECD countries, 1960-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadgar, Iman; Norström, Thor

    2017-02-01

    Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality. We extracted traffic death rates for the period 1960-2011 from the WHO Mortality Database for 18 OECD countries. Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates. The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (pGDP leads to an immediate increase in traffic deaths. However, after the mid-1970s this short-term effect is more than outweighed by a markedly stronger protective long-term effect, whereas the reverse is true for the period before the mid-1970s. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  19. Stability of rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy: a long-term controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masucci, Caterina; Franchi, Lorenzo; Defraia, Efisio; Mucedero, Manuela; Cozza, Paola; Baccetti, Tiziano

    2011-10-01

    The aim of this prospective controlled study was to evaluate the long-term effects of rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy in Class III subjects. Twenty-two subjects (9 boys, 13 girls; mean age, 9.2 years ± 1.6) with Class III disharmony were treated consecutively with rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy followed by fixed appliances. The patients were reevaluated at the end of the 2-phase treatment (mean age, 14.5 years ± 1.9) and then recalled about 8.5 years after the end of rapid maxillary expansion and facemask treatment (mean age, 18.7 years ± 2.1). Two groups of controls with untreated Class III malocclusion were used for statistical comparisons of the short-term and long-term intervals. Statistical comparisons were performed with the Mann-Whitney U test. In the long term, no significant differences in maxillary changes were recorded, whereas the treatment group showed significantly smaller increases in mandibular protrusion. The sagittal maxillomandibular skeletal variables maintained significant improvements in the treatment group vs the control groups. In the long term, rapid maxillary expansion and facemask therapy led to successful outcomes in about 73% of the Class III patients. Favorable skeletal changes were mainly due to significant improvements in the sagittal position of the mandible. Copyright © 2011 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Long-term mortality after Staphylococcus aureus spondylodiscitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard, Theis; Roed, Casper; Larsen, Anders R

    2014-01-01

    Patients diagnosed with Staphylococcus aureus spondylodiscitis have increased long-term mortality compared with the background population mainly due to infectious, endocrine, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and alcohol and drug abuse-related diseases.......Patients diagnosed with Staphylococcus aureus spondylodiscitis have increased long-term mortality compared with the background population mainly due to infectious, endocrine, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and alcohol and drug abuse-related diseases....

  1. Inadvertent Splenectomy During Resection for Colorectal Cancer Does Not Increase Long-term Mortality in a Propensity Score Model: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lolle, Ida; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian; Schefte, David F; Bulut, Orhan; Krarup, Peter-Martin; Rosenstock, Steffen J

    2016-12-01

    Previous studies suggest that long-term mortality is increased in patients who undergo splenectomy during surgery for colorectal cancer. The reason for this association remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between inadvertent splenectomy attributed to iatrogenic lesion to the spleen during colorectal cancer resections and long-term mortality in a national cohort of unselected patients. This was a retrospective, nationwide cohort study. Data were collected from the database of the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group and merged with data from the National Patient Registry and the National Pathology Databank. Danish patients with colorectal cancer undergoing curatively intended resection between 2001 and 2011 were included in the study. The primary outcome was long-term mortality for patients surviving 30 days after surgery. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and risk factors for inadvertent splenectomy. Multivariable and propensity-score matched Cox regression analyses were used to adjust for potential confounding. In total, 23,727 patients were included, of which 277 (1.2%) underwent inadvertent splenectomy. There was no association between inadvertent splenectomy and long-term mortality (adjusted HR = 1.15 (95% CI, 0.95-1.40); p = 0.16) in the propensity score-matched model, whereas 30-day mortality was significantly increased (adjusted HR = 2.31 (95% CI, 1.71-3.11); p splenectomy was most often seen during left hemicolectomy (left hemicolectomy vs right hemicolectomy: OR = 24.76 (95% CI, 15.30-40.06); p splenectomy during resection for colorectal cancer does not seem to increase long-term mortality. The previously reported reduced overall survival after inadvertent splenectomy may be explained by excess mortality in the immediate postoperative period.

  2. The Impact of Policy Incentives on Long-Term Care Insurance and Medicaid Costs: Does Underwriting Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornell, Portia Y; Grabowski, David C

    2018-05-16

    To test whether underwriting modifies the effect of state-based incentives on individuals' purchase of long-term care insurance. Health and Retirement Study (HRS), 1996-2012. We estimated difference-in-difference regression models with an interaction of state policy indicators with individuals' probabilities of being approved for long-term care insurance. We imputed probabilities of underwriting approval for respondents in the HRS using a model developed with underwriting decisions from two U.S. insurance firms. We measured the elasticity response to long-term care insurance price using changes in simulated after-tax price as an instrumental variable for premium price. Tax incentives and Partnership programs increased insurance purchase by 3.62 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, among those with the lowest risk (highest approval probability). Neither had any statistically significant effects among the highest risk individuals. We show that ignoring the effects of underwriting may lead to biased estimates of the potential state budget savings of long-term care insurance tax incentives. If the private market is to play a role in financing long-term care, policies need to address the underlying adverse selection problems. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  3. Propofol increased the interleukin-6 to interleukin-10 ratio more than isoflurane after surgery in long-term alcoholic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Von Dossow, V; Baur, S; Sander, M

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of an anaesthetic regimen on the immune response in 40 long-term alcoholic patients undergoing surgery. Patients were randomly allocated to receive either propofol or isoflurane during surgery. Plasma cytokines interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-10 were measured at defined...... times and rates of post-operative infections were documented. The IL-6/IL-10 ratio significantly increased with propofol compared with isoflurane on day 1 after surgery and the IL-10 level significantly increased with isoflurane on day 1 after surgery. The overall post-operative infection rate...... was significantly higher in isoflurane-treated patients. Our findings indicate that propofol anaesthesia might be the more favourable regimen, with the IL-6/IL-10 ratio indicating an attenuation of the immune imbalance after surgery in long-term alcoholic patients. These results support the undertaking...

  4. Propofol increased the interleukin-6 to interleukin-10 ratio more than isoflurane after surgery in long-term alcoholic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Von Dossow, V; Baur, S; Sander, M

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of an anaesthetic regimen on the immune response in 40 long-term alcoholic patients undergoing surgery. Patients were randomly allocated to receive either propofol or isoflurane during surgery. Plasma cytokines interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-10 were measured at defined...... times and rates of post-operative infections were documented. The IL-6/IL-10 ratio significantly increased with propofol compared with isoflurane on day 1 after surgery and the IL-10 level significantly increased with isoflurane on day 1 after surgery. The overall post-operative infection rate...... was significantly higher in isoflurane-treated patients. Our findings indicate that propofol anaesthesia might be the more favourable regimen, with the IL-6/IL-10 ratio indicating an attenuation of the immune imbalance after surgery in long-term alcoholic patients. These results support the undertaking...

  5. Long-Term Symbolic Learning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

    2007-01-01

    What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

  6. Drivers of long-term precipitation and runoff variability in the southeastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Johanna; Waylen, Peter

    2018-02-01

    The hydroclimatology of the southeastern USA (AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN) is analyzed from a holistic perspective, including multiple climate drivers. Monthly precipitation modeled by the PRISM group and runoff data (1952-2011) from 18 basins are analyzed using a single-field based principal component's analysis. Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main atmospheric drivers of hydroclimate variability in the region, sometimes operating at several months' lag. Their influence is the strongest in the fall through spring, which corresponds with the dry season in the southern parts of the study area thereby increasing pressure on already limited water resources. The Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific-North American patterns vary on shorter-term bases, and also show a significant, but temporally more sporadic influence. Insight is also brought to the ongoing discussion, confirming the disassociation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation. Findings can be used in water resources forecasting, giving an indication of expected water volumes several months ahead.

  7. Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Rime, Dagfinn; Sucarrat, Genaro

    2007-01-01

    We study the role played by geographic and bank-size heterogeneity in the relation between exchange rate variability and market activity. We find some support for the hypothesis that increases in short-term global interbank market activity, which can be interpreted as due to variation in information arrival, increase variability. However, our results do not suggest that local short-term activity increases variability. With respect to long-term market activity, which can be interpreted as a me...

  8. Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

    Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

  9. Long-term stabilization of uranium mill tailings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voorhees, L.D.; Sale, M.J.; Webb, J.W.; Mulholland, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    The primary hazard associated with uranium mill tailings is exposure to a radioactive gas, radon-222, the concentration of which has been correlated with the occurrence of lung cancer. Previous studies on radon attenuation conclude that the placement of earthen cover materials over the tailings is the most effective technique for reducing radioactive emissions and dispersal of tailings. The success of such a plan, however, is dependent on ensuring the long-term integrity of these cover materials. Soil erosion from water and wind is the major natural cause of destabilizing earthen cover materials. Field data related to the control of soil loss are limited and only indirectly apply to the problem of isolation of uranium mill tailings over very long time periods (up to 80,000 a). However, sufficient information is available to determine benefits that will result from changes in specific design variables and to evaluate the need for different design strategies among potential disposal sites. The three major options available for stabilization of uranium mill tailings are (1) rock cover, (2) soil and revegetation, or (3) a combination of both on different portions of the tailings cover. The optimal choice among these alternatives depends on site-specific characteristics such as climate and local geomorphology and soils, and on design variables such as embankment heights and slopes, modification of upstream drainage, and revegetation practices. Generally, geomorphic evidence suggests that use of soil and vegetation alone will not be adequate to reduce erosion on slopes greater than about 5 to 9%. For these steeper slopes, the use of rock talus or riprap will be necessary to maximize the probability of long-term stability. The use of vegetation to control erosion on the flatter portions of the site may be practicable in regions of the USA with sufficient rainfall and suitable soil types, but revegetation practices must be carefully evaluated to ensure that long-term

  10. Long term results of kissing stents in the aortic bifurcation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinnen, J.W.; Konickx, M.A.; Meerwaldt, Robbert; Kolkert, J.L.P.; van der Palen, Jacobus Adrianus Maria; Huisman, A.B.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To evaluate the long-term outcome after aortoiliac kissing stent placement and to analyze variables, which potentially influence the outcome of endovascular reconstruction of the aortic bifurcation. METHODS: All patients treated with aortoiliac kissing stents at our institution between

  11. Aging and a long-term diabetes mellitus increase expression of 1 α-hydroxylase and vitamin D receptors in the rat liver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuica, Ana; Ferhatović Hamzić, Lejla; Vukojević, Katarina; Jerić, Milka; Puljak, Livia; Grković, Ivica; Filipović, Natalija

    2015-12-01

    Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic disorder associated with serious liver complications. As a metabolic chronic disease, DM is very common in the elderly. Recent studies suggest ameliorating effects of vitamin D on metabolic and oxidative stress in the liver tissue in an experimental model of DM. The aim of this study was to investigate the expression of vitamin D receptors (VDRs) and 1α-hydroxylase, the key enzyme for the production of active vitamin D form (calcitriol) in the liver during long-term diabetes mellitus type 1 (DM1) in aging rats. We performed immunohistochemical analysis of liver expression of 1α-hydroxylase and VDRs during aging in long-term streptozotocin-induced DM1. 1α-Hydroxylase was identified in the monocyte/macrophage system of the liver. In addition to the nuclear expression, we also observed the expression of VDR in membranes of lipid droplets within hepatocytes. Aging and long-term DM1 resulted in significant increases in the number of 1α-hydroxylase immunoreactive cells, as well as the percentage of strongly positive VDR hepatocytes. In conclusion, the liver has the capacity for active vitamin D synthesis in its monocyte/macrophage system that is substantially increased in aging and long-term diabetes mellitus. These conditions are also characterized by significant increases in vitamin D receptor expression in hepatocytes. The present study suggests that VDR signaling system could be a potential target in prevention of liver complications caused by diabetes and aging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Water quality of the Neuse River, North Carolina - Variability, pollution loads, and long-term trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harned, Doughlas A.

    1982-01-01

    in total organic carbon concentrations, coincide with activation in 1976 of a new waste-water treatment plant for the Raleigh metropolitan area. The amount of dissolved inorganic pollution in the Neuse was determined by subtacting estimated natural loads of dissolved constituents from measured total loads. Pollution makes up approximately 50 percent of the total dissolved material transported by the Neuse. Two different data transformation methods allowed trends to be identified in constituent concentrations. Both methods recomputed concentrations as if they were determined at a constant discharge over the period of record. Although little change since 1956 can be seen in many constituents, increases of over 50 percent are shown for potassium and sulfate concentrations. These long-term rises indicate the increasing impact that man has had on the Neuse River, in spite of improved waste-water treatment in the basin. The increase in sulfate is probably largely due to increased long-term imputs of sulfur compounds from acid precipitation.

  13. Mechanisms of long-term mean sea level variability in the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Calafat, Francisco; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Richter, Kristin; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    We examine mean sea level (MSL) variations in the North Sea on timescales ranging from months to decades under the consideration of different forcing factors since the late 19th century. We use multiple linear regression models, which are validated for the second half of the 20th century against the output of a state-of-the-art tide+surge model (HAMSOM), to determine the barotropic response of the ocean to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. We demonstrate that local atmospheric forcing mainly triggers MSL variability on timescales up to a few years, with the inverted barometric effect dominating the variability along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind (piling up the water along the coast) controlling the MSL variability in the south from Belgium up to Denmark. However, in addition to the large inter-annual sea level variability there is also a considerable fraction of decadal scale variability. We show that on decadal timescales MSL variability in the North Sea mainly reflects steric changes, which are mostly remotely forced. A spatial correlation analysis of altimetry observations and baroclinic ocean model outputs suggests evidence for a coherent signal extending from the Norwegian shelf down to the Canary Islands. This supports the theory of longshore wind forcing along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic causing coastally trapped waves to propagate along the continental slope. With a combination of oceanographic and meteorological measurements we demonstrate that ~80% of the decadal sea level variability in the North Sea can be explained as response of the ocean to longshore wind forcing, including boundary wave propagation in the Northeast Atlantic. These findings have important implications for (i) detecting significant accelerations in North Sea MSL, (ii) the conceptual set up of regional ocean models in terms of resolution and boundary conditions, and (iii) the development of adequate and realistic regional climate change projections.

  14. Long-term photometric behaviour of outbursting AM CVn systems

    OpenAIRE

    Levitan, David; Groot, Paul J.; Prince, Thomas A.; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Laher, Russ; Ofek, Eran O.; Sesar, Branimir; Surace, Jason

    2015-01-01

    The AM CVn systems are a class of He-rich, post-period minimum, semidetached, ultracompact binaries. Their long-term light curves have been poorly understood due to the few systems known and the long (hundreds of days) recurrence times between outbursts. We present combined photometric light curves from the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research, Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey, and Palomar Transient Factory synoptic surveys to study the photometric variability of these systems over an almo...

  15. Long-term multipactor discharge in multicarrier systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anza, S.; Vicente, C.; Gimeno, B.; Boria, V. E.; Armendariz, J.

    2007-01-01

    A new mechanism of long-term multipactor in multicarrier systems is studied employing both analytical and numerical methods. In particular, the investigation is focused on the impact that a realistic secondary emission yield at low energies produces on the development of long term multipactor. A novel analytical model for this interperiod charge accumulation is presented using the traditional multipactor theory for parallel plates, and approximating the multicarrier signal as a single-carrier signal modulated by a pulsed signal envelope. The analytical predictions are verified by numerical simulations for a typical rectangular waveguide. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the susceptibility of the system to develop a long-term multipactor discharge increases with higher values of low-energy secondary emission yield

  16. Long-Term Anabolic Androgenic Steroid Use Is Associated with Increased Atrial Electromechanical Delay in Male Bodybuilders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Akçakoyun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effect of long-term supraphysiologic doses of anabolic androgenic steroids (AAS on atrial electromechanical delay (AEMD in male bodybuilders. We clearly demonstrated that long-term consumption of supraphysiologic doses of AAS is associated with higher values of inter- and intra-AEMD in healthy young bodybuilders.

  17. LONG-TERM OUTCOME IN PEDIATRIC TRICHOTILLOMANIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumer, Maya C; Panza, Kaitlyn E; Mulqueen, Jilian M; Jakubovski, Ewgeni; Bloch, Michael H

    2015-10-01

    To examine long-term outcome in children with trichotillomania. We conducted follow-up clinical assessments an average of 2.8 ± 0.8 years after baseline evaluation in 30 of 39 children who previously participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) for pediatric trichotillomania. Our primary outcome was change in hairpulling severity on the Massachusetts General Hospital Hairpulling Hospital Hairpulling Scale (MGH-HPS) between the end of the acute phase and follow-up evaluation. We also obtained secondary measures examining styles of hairpulling, comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as continued treatment utilization. We examined both correlates and predictors of outcome (change in MGH-HPS score) using linear regression. None of the participants continued to take NAC at the time of follow-up assessment. No significant changes in hairpulling severity were reported over the follow-up period. Subjects reported significantly increased anxiety and depressive symptoms but improvement in automatic pulling symptoms. Increased hairpulling symptoms during the follow-up period were associated with increased depression and anxiety symptoms and increased focused pulling. Older age and greater focused pulling at baseline assessment were associated with poor long-term prognosis. Our findings suggest that few children with trichotillomania experience a significant improvement in trichotillomania symptoms if behavioral treatments are inaccessible or have failed to produce adequate symptom relief. Our findings also confirm results of previous cross-sectional studies that suggest an increased risk of depression and anxiety symptoms with age in pediatric trichotillomania. Increased focused pulling and older age among children with trichotillomania symptoms may be associated with poorer long-term prognosis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Global variation in the long-term seasonal changes observed in ionospheric F region data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Scott

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Long-term variability has previously been observed in the relative magnitude of annual and semi-annual variations in the critical frequency (related to the peak electron concentration of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2. In this paper we investigate the global patterns in such variability by calculating the time varying power ratio of semi-annual to annual components seen in ionospheric foF2 data sequences from 77 ionospheric monitoring stations around the world. The temporal variation in power ratios observed at each station was then correlated with the same parameter calculated from similar epochs for the Slough/Chilton data set (for which there exists the longest continuous sequence of ionospheric data. This technique reveals strong regional variation in the data, which bears a striking similarity to the regional variation observed in long-term changes to the height of the ionospheric F2 layer. We argue that since both the height and peak density of the ionospheric F2 region are influenced by changes to thermospheric circulation and composition, the observed long-term and regional variability can be explained by such changes. In the absence of long-term measurements of thermospheric composition, detailed modelling work is required to investigate these processes.

  19. Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population of Alberta, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2013-01-01

    Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

  20. Instrumental Variables in the Long Run

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casey, Gregory; Klemp, Marc Patrick Brag

    2017-01-01

    In the study of long-run economic growth, it is common to use historical or geographical variables as instruments for contemporary endogenous regressors. We study the interpretation of these conventional instrumental variable (IV) regressions in a general, yet simple, framework. Our aim...... quantitative implications for the field of long-run economic growth. We also use our framework to examine related empirical techniques. We find that two prominent regression methodologies - using gravity-based instruments for trade and including ancestry-adjusted variables in linear regression models - have...... is to estimate the long-run causal effect of changes in the endogenous explanatory variable. We find that conventional IV regressions generally cannot recover this parameter of interest. To estimate this parameter, therefore, we develop an augmented IV estimator that combines the conventional regression...

  1. Long-term selenium status in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baskett, C.K.; Spate, V.L.; Mason, M.M.; Nichols, T.A.; Williams, A.; Dubman, I.M.; Gudino, A.; Denison, J.; Morris, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    The association of sub-optimal selenium status with increased risk factors for some cancers has been reported in two recent epidemiological studies. In both studies the same threshold in selenium status was observed, below which, cancer incidence increased. To assess the use of nails as a biologic monitor to measure the long-term selenium status, an eight-year longitudinal study was undertaken with a group of 11 adult subjects, 5 women and 6 men. Selenium has been measured by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Differences between fingernails and toenails with be discussed. In addition, the results will be discussed in the context of the long-term stability of the nail monitor to measure selenium status during those periods when selenium determinants are static; and the changes that occur as a result of selenium supplementation. (author)

  2. Prevalence of Long-Term Opioid Use in Long-Stay Nursing Home Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunnicutt, Jacob N; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Ulbricht, Christine M; Hume, Anne L; Tjia, Jennifer; Lapane, Kate L

    2018-01-01

    Overall and long-term opioid use among older adults have increased since 1999. Less is known about opioid use in older adults in nursing homes (NHs). Cross-sectional. U.S. NHs (N = 13,522). Long-stay NH resident Medicare beneficiaries with a Minimum Data Set 3.0 (MDS) assessment between April 1, 2012, and June 30, 2012, and 120 days of follow-up (N = 315,949). We used Medicare Part D claims to measure length of opioid use in the 120 days from the index assessment (short-term: ≤30 days, medium-term: >30-89 days, long-term: ≥90 days), adjuvants (e.g., anticonvulsants), and other pain medications (e.g., corticosteroids). MDS assessments in the follow-up period were used to measure nonpharmacological pain management use. Modified Poisson models were used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for age, gender, race and ethnicity, cognitive and physical impairment, and long-term opioid use. Of all long-stay residents, 32.4% were prescribed any opioid, and 15.5% were prescribed opioids long-term. Opioid users (versus nonusers) were more commonly prescribed pain adjuvants (32.9% vs 14.9%), other pain medications (25.5% vs 11.0%), and nonpharmacological pain management (24.5% vs 9.3%). Long-term opioid use was higher in women (aPR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.18-1.23) and lower in racial and ethnic minorities (non-Hispanic blacks vs whites: APR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.90-0.94) and those with severe cognitive impairment (vs no or mild impairment, aPR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.79-0.83). One in seven NH residents was prescribed opioids long-term. Recent guidelines on opioid prescribing for pain recommend reducing long-term opioid use, but this is challenging in NHs because residents may not benefit from nonpharmacological and nonopioid interventions. Studies to address concerns about opioid safety and effectiveness (e.g., on pain and functional status) in NHs are needed. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics

  3. Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.

    2014-12-01

    The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the number of dust events fourfold (135 dust days annually). The position of the Icelandic Low determined whether dust events occurred in the NE (16.4 dust days annually) or in the southern (S) part of Iceland (about 18 dust days annually). The decade with the most frequent dust days in S Iceland was the 1960s, but the 2000s in NE Iceland. A total of 32 severe dust storms (visibility typically warm, occurring during summer/autumn (May-September) and during mild southwesterly winds, while the subarctic dust events (S Iceland) were mainly cold, occurring during winter/spring (March-May) and during strong northeasterly winds. About half of the dust events in S Iceland occurred in winter or at sub-zero temperatures. A good correlation was found between particulate matter (PM10) concentrations and visibility during dust observations at the stations Vík and Stórhöfði. This study shows that Iceland is among the dustiest areas of the world and that dust is emitted year-round.

  4. Self-reported musculoskeletal pain predicts long-term increase in general health care use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael; Søgaard, Karen

    2014-01-01

    reported during the past two weeks from the Danish National Cohort Study were merged with data from the Danish National Health Insurance Registry and the National Patient Registry containing information on consultations in the Danish primary and secondary care sector. Absolute and relative rates for all......Aims: Musculoskeletal pain and disability is a modern epidemic and a major reason for seeking health care. The aim of this study is to determine absolute and relative rates of care seeking over 20 years for adults reporting musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: Interview data on musculoskeletal pain...... to any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS SELF-REPORT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS PREDICTS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM INCREASE IN GENERAL USE OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND THE SECONDARY HEALTH CARE SECTOR:...

  5. Inadvertent Splenectomy During Resection for Colorectal Cancer Does Not Increase Long-term Mortality in a Propensity Score Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lolle, Ida; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian; Schefte, David F

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that long-term mortality is increased in patients who undergo splenectomy during surgery for colorectal cancer. The reason for this association remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between inadvertent...... splenectomy attributed to iatrogenic lesion to the spleen during colorectal cancer resections and long-term mortality in a national cohort of unselected patients. DESIGN: This was a retrospective, nationwide cohort study. SETTINGS: Data were collected from the database of the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group...... for patients surviving 30 days after surgery. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and risk factors for inadvertent splenectomy. Multivariable and propensity-score matched Cox regression analyses were used to adjust for potential confounding. RESULTS: In total, 23,727 patients were included, of which 277...

  6. A quantitative analysis of 2-D gels identifies proteins in which labeling is increased following long-term sensitization in Aplysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castellucci, V.F.; Kennedy, T.E.; Kandel, E.R.; Goelet, P.

    1988-01-01

    Long-term memory for sensitization of the gill- and siphon-withdrawal reflex in Aplysia, produced by 4 days of training, is associated with increased synaptic efficacy of the connection between the sensory and motor neurons. This training is also accompanied by neuronal growth; there is an increase in the number of synaptic varicosities per sensory neuron and in the number of active zones. Such structural changes may be due to changes in the rates of synthesis of certain proteins. We have searched for proteins in which the rates of [ 35 S]methionine labeling are altered during the maintenance phase of long-term memory for sensitization by using computer-assisted quantitative 2-D gel analysis. This method has allowed us to detect 4 proteins in which labeling is altered after 4 days of sensitization training

  7. Long-term meditation is associated with increased gray matter density in the brain stem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard-Poulsen, Peter; Beek, Martijn van; Skewes, Joshua

    2009-01-01

    Extensive practice involving sustained attention can lead to changes in brain structure. Here, we report evidence of structural differences in the lower brainstem of participants engaged in the long-term practice of meditation. Using magnetic resonance imaging, we observed higher gray matter...... density in lower brain stem regions of experienced meditators compared with age-matched nonmeditators. Our findings show that long-term practitioners of meditation have structural differences in brainstem regions concerned with cardiorespiratory control. This could account for some...... of the cardiorespiratory parasympathetic effects and traits, as well as the cognitive, emotional, and immunoreactive impact reported in several studies of different meditation practices....

  8. Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Weiqi; Wu, Libo; Zhang, ZhongXiang

    2010-01-01

    A considerable body of economic literature shows the adverse economic impacts of oil-price shocks for the developed economies. However, there has been a lack of similar empirical study on China and other developing countries. This paper attempts to fill this gap by answering how and to what extent oil-price shocks impact China's economy, emphasizing on the price transmission mechanisms. To that end, we develop a structural vector auto-regressive model. Our results show that an oil-price increase negatively affects output and investment, but positively affects inflation rate and interest rate. However, with price control policies in China, the impact on real economy, represented by real output and real investment, lasts much longer than that to price/monetary variables. Our decomposition results also show that the short-term impact, namely output decrease induced by the cut in capacity-utilization rate, is greater in the first 6 periods (namely half a year), but the portion of the long-term impact, defined as the impact realized through an investment change, increases steadily and exceeds that of short-term impact in the 7th period. Afterwards, the long-term impact dominates, and maintains for quite some time. (author)

  9. Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

    2018-06-01

    California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Long-term monitoring of river basins: strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, N. J. K.; Burt, T. P.

    2016-12-01

    In a world where equilibrium is more and more uncommon, monitoring is an essential way to discover whether undesirable change is taking place. Monitoring requires a deliberate plan of action: the regular collection and processing of information. Long-term data reveal important patterns, allowing trends, cycles, and rare events to be identified. This is particularly important for complex systems where signals may be subtle and slow to emerge. Moreover, very long data sets are essential to test hypotheses undreamt of at the time the monitoring was started. This overview includes long time series from UK river basins showing how hydrology and water quality have changed over time - and continue to change. An important conclusion is the long time frame of system recovery, well beyond the normal lifetime of individual governments or research grants. At a time of increasing hydroclimatic variability, long time series remain crucially important; in particular, continuity of observations is vital at key benchmark sites.

  11. Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2014-12-01

    Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.

  12. Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

    2016-05-01

    Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bin

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p impact on the crop growth trend.

  14. Long-term interleukin-6 levels and subsequent risk of coronary heart disease: two new prospective studies and a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Danesh

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The relevance to coronary heart disease (CHD of cytokines that govern inflammatory cascades, such as interleukin-6 (IL-6, may be underestimated because such mediators are short acting and prone to fluctuations. We evaluated associations of long-term circulating IL-6 levels with CHD risk (defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or fatal CHD in two population-based cohorts, involving serial measurements to enable correction for within-person variability. We updated a systematic review to put the new findings in context.Measurements were made in samples obtained at baseline from 2,138 patients who had a first-ever nonfatal MI or died of CHD during follow-up, and from 4,267 controls in two cohorts comprising 24,230 participants. Correction for within-person variability was made using data from repeat measurements taken several years apart in several hundred participants. The year-to-year variability of IL-6 values within individuals was relatively high (regression dilution ratios of 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28-0.53, over 4 y, and 0.35, 95% CI 0.23-0.48, over 12 y. Ignoring this variability, we found an odds ratio for CHD, adjusted for several established risk factors, of 1.46 (95% CI 1.29-1.65 per 2 standard deviation (SD increase of baseline IL-6 values, similar to that for baseline C-reactive protein. After correction for within-person variability, the odds ratio for CHD was 2.14 (95% CI 1.45-3.15 with long-term average ("usual" IL-6, similar to those for some established risk factors. Increasing IL-6 levels were associated with progressively increasing CHD risk. An updated systematic review of electronic databases and other sources identified 15 relevant previous population-based prospective studies of IL-6 and clinical coronary outcomes (i.e., MI or coronary death. Including the two current studies, the 17 available prospective studies gave a combined odds ratio of 1.61 (95% CI 1.42-1.83 per 2 SD increase in baseline IL-6

  15. Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Sidharth

    2014-01-01

    Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

  16. Long-term nitrogen addition affects the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial community responding to moisture pulse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chi; Yao, Minjie; Stegen, James C; Rui, Junpeng; Li, Jiabao; Li, Xiangzhen

    2017-12-13

    How press disturbance (long-term) influences the phylogenetic turnover of soil microbial communities responding to pulse disturbances (short-term) is not fully known. Understanding the complex connections between the history of environmental conditions, assembly processes and microbial community dynamics is necessary to predict microbial response to perturbation. We started by investigating phylogenetic spatial turnover (based on DNA) of soil prokaryotic communities after long-term nitrogen (N) deposition and temporal turnover (based on RNA) of communities responding to pulse by conducting short-term rewetting experiments. The results showed that moderate N addition increased ecological stochasticity and phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, high N addition slightly increased homogeneous selection and decreased phylogenetic diversity. Examining the system with higher phylogenetic resolution revealed a moderate contribution of variable selection across the whole N gradient. The moisture pulse experiment showed that high N soils had higher rates of phylogenetic turnover across short phylogenetic distances and significant changes in community compositions through time. Long-term N input history influenced spatial turnover of microbial communities, but the dominant community assembly mechanisms differed across different N deposition gradients. We further revealed an interaction between press and pulse disturbances whereby deterministic processes were particularly important following pulse disturbances in high N soils.

  17. North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bustamante, E.; Jimenez, P.A. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Madrid (Spain); Navarro, J. [CIEMAT, Departamento de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Xoplaki, E. [University of Bern, Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Montavez, J.P. [Universidad de Murcia, Departamento de Fisica, Murcia (Spain)

    2012-01-15

    The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992-2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified

  18. Long-term variation analysis of a tropical river's annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyam, Mohammed; Othman, Faridah

    2015-07-01

    Studying the long-term changes of streamflow is an important tool for enhancing water resource and river system planning, design, and management. The aim of this work is to identify the long-term variations in annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period from 1961 to 2010 in the Selangor River, which is one of the main tropical rivers in Malaysia. Initially, the data underwent preliminary independence, normality, and homogeneity testing using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Shapiro-Wilk and Pettitt's tests, respectively. The work includes a study and analysis of the changes through nine variables describing the annual streamflow and variations in the yearly duration of high and low streamflows. The analyses were conducted via two time scales: yearly and sub-periodic. The sub-periods were obtained by segmenting the 50 years into seven sub-periods by two techniques, namely the change-point test and direct method. Even though analysis revealed nearly negligible changes in mean annual flow over the study period, the maximum annual flow generally increased while the minimum annual flow significantly decreased with respect to time. It was also observed that the variables describing the dispersion in streamflow continually increased with respect to time. An obvious increase was detected in the yearly duration of danger level of streamflow, a slight increase was noted in the yearly duration of warning and alert levels, and a slight decrease in the yearly duration of low streamflow was found. The perceived changes validate the existence of long-term changes in annual streamflow regime, which increase the probability of floods and droughts occurring in future. In light of the results, attention should be drawn to developing water resource management and flood protection plans in order to avert the harmful effects potentially resulting from the expected changes in annual streamflow regime.

  19. Long term stability of power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

  20. Sucrose and naltrexone prevent increased pain sensitivity and impaired long-term memory induced by repetitive neonatal noxious stimulation: Role of BDNF and β-endorphin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuseir, Khawla Q; Alzoubi, Karem H; Alhusban, Ahmed; Bawaane, Areej; Al-Azzani, Mohammed; Khabour, Omar F

    2017-10-01

    Pain in neonates is associated with short and long-term adverse outcomes. Data demonstrated that long-term consequences of untreated pain are linked to the plasticity of the neonate's brain. Sucrose is effective and safe for reducing painful procedures from single events. However, the mechanism of sucrose-induced analgesia is not fully understood. The role of the opioid system in this analgesia using the opioid receptor antagonist Naltrexone was investigated, plus the long-term effects on learning and memory formation during adulthood. Pain was induced in rat pups via needle pricks of the paws. Sucrose solution and/or naltrexone were administered before the pricks. All treatments started on day one of birth and continued for two weeks. At the end of 8weeks, behavioral studies were conducted to test spatial learning and memory using radial arm water maze (RAWM), and pain threshold via foot-withdrawal response to a hot plate. The hippocampus was dissected; levels of brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and endorphins were assessed using ELISA. Acute repetitive neonatal pain increased pain sensitivity later in life, while naltrexone with sucrose decreased pain sensitivity. Naltrexone and/or sucrose prevented neonatal pain induced impairment of long-term memory, while neonatal pain decreased levels of BDNF in the hippocampus; this decrease was averted by sucrose and naltrexone. Sucrose with naltrexone significantly increased β-endorphin levels in noxiously stimulated rats. In conclusion, naltrexone and sucrose can reverse increased pain sensitivity and impaired long-term memory induced by acute repetitive neonatal pain probably by normalizing BDNF expression and increasing β-endorphin levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Individual clones of hemopoietic cells in murine long-term bone marrow culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chertkov, J.L.; Deryugina, E.I.; Drize, N.J.; Udalov, G.A.

    1987-01-01

    Forty-seven individual hemopoietic cell clones bearing unique radiation markers were studied in long-term bone marrow cultures. Throughout cultivation clones appeared at different times, from 1 to 12 weeks after explantation, survived during 1-10 more weeks, and were characterized by marked variability in size. Usually, the number of metaphases peculiar to an individual clone rapidly increased, achieved maximum, and then underwent a decline. Cells of reliably disappearing clones were never seen again. The experimental results provide further evidence for the model of hemopoiesis by clonal succession

  2. Visual working memory is more tolerant than visual long-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schurgin, Mark W; Flombaum, Jonathan I

    2018-05-07

    Human visual memory is tolerant, meaning that it supports object recognition despite variability across encounters at the image level. Tolerant object recognition remains one capacity in which artificial intelligence trails humans. Typically, tolerance is described as a property of human visual long-term memory (VLTM). In contrast, visual working memory (VWM) is not usually ascribed a role in tolerant recognition, with tests of that system usually demanding discriminatory power-identifying changes, not sameness. There are good reasons to expect that VLTM is more tolerant; functionally, recognition over the long-term must accommodate the fact that objects will not be viewed under identical conditions; and practically, the passive and massive nature of VLTM may impose relatively permissive criteria for thinking that two inputs are the same. But empirically, tolerance has never been compared across working and long-term visual memory. We therefore developed a novel paradigm for equating encoding and test across different memory types. In each experiment trial, participants saw two objects, memory for one tested immediately (VWM) and later for the other (VLTM). VWM performance was better than VLTM and remained robust despite the introduction of image and object variability. In contrast, VLTM performance suffered linearly as more variability was introduced into test stimuli. Additional experiments excluded interference effects as causes for the observed differences. These results suggest the possibility of a previously unidentified role for VWM in the acquisition of tolerant representations for object recognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Long-term olfactory memories are stabilised via protein synthesis in Camponotus fellah ants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guerrieri, Fernando Javier; D'Ettorre, Patrizia; Deveaud, J-M.

    2011-01-01

    -chain hydrocarbons, one paired with sucrose and the other with quinine solution. Differential conditioning leads to the formation of a long-term memory retrievable at least 72¿h after training. Long-term memory consolidation was impaired by the ingestion of cycloheximide, a protein synthesis blocker, prior...... to conditioning. Cycloheximide did not impair acquisition of either short-term memory (10¿min) or early and late mid-term memories (1 or 12¿h). These results show that, upon olfactory learning, ants form different memories with variable molecular bases. While short- and mid-term memories do not require protein...... synthesis, long-term memories are stabilised via protein synthesis. Our behavioural protocol opens interesting research avenues to explore the cellular and molecular bases of olfactory learning and memory in ants....

  4. Remote Lower White Matter Integrity Increases the Risk of Long-Term Cognitive Impairment After Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaapsmeerders, Pauline; Tuladhar, Anil M; Arntz, Renate M; Franssen, Sieske; Maaijwee, Noortje A M; Rutten-Jacobs, Loes C A; Schoonderwaldt, Hennie C; Dorresteijn, Lucille D A; van Dijk, Ewoud J; Kessels, Roy P C; de Leeuw, Frank-Erik

    2016-10-01

    Poststroke cognitive impairment occurs frequently in young patients with ischemic stroke (18 through 50 years of age). Accumulating data suggest that stroke is associated with lower white matter integrity remote from the stroke impact area, which might explain why some patients have good long-term cognitive outcome and others do not. Given the life expectancy of decades in young patients, we therefore investigated remote white matter in relation to long-term cognitive function. We included all consecutive first-ever ischemic stroke patients, left/right hemisphere, without recurrent stroke or transient ischemic attack during follow-up, aged 18 through 50 years, admitted to our university medical center between 1980 and 2010. One hundred seventeen patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging scanning including a T1-weighted scan, a diffusion tensor imaging scan, and completed a neuropsychological assessment. Patients were compared with a matched stroke-free control group (age, sex, and education matched). Cognitive impairment was defined as >1.5 SD below the mean cognitive index score of controls and no cognitive impairment as ≤1 SD. Tract-Based Spatial Statistics was used to assess the white matter integrity (fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity). About 11 years after ischemic stroke, lower remote white matter integrity was associated with a worse long-term cognitive performance. A lower remote white matter integrity, even in the contralesional hemisphere, was observed in cognitively impaired patients (n=25) compared with cognitively unimpaired patients (n=71). These findings indicate that although stroke has an acute onset, it might have long lasting effects on remote white matter integrity and thereby increases the risk of long-term cognitive impairment. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. Understanding the Long-Term Spectral Variability of Cygnus X-1 from BATSE and ASM Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zdziarski, Andrzej A.; Poutanen, Juri; Paciesas, William S.; Wen, Linqing; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We present a spectral analysis of observations of Cygnus X-1 by the RXTE/ASM (1.5-12 keV) and CGRO/BATSE (20-300 keV), including about 1200 days of simultaneous data. We find a number of correlations between intensities and hardnesses in different energy bands from 1.5 keV to 300 keV. In the hard (low) spectral state, there is a negative correlation between the ASM 1.5-12 keV flux and the hardness at any energy. In the soft (high) spectral state, the ASM flux is positively correlated with the ASM hardness (as previously reported) but uncorrelated with the BATSE hardness. In both spectral states, the BATSE hardness correlates with the flux above 100 keV, while it shows no correlation with the flux in the 20-100 keV range. At the same time, there is clear correlation between the BATSE fluxes below and above 100 keV. In the hard state, most of the variability can be explained by softening the overall spectrum with a pivot at approximately 50 keV. The observations show that there has to be another, independent variability pattern of lower amplitude where the spectral shape does not change when the luminosity changes. In the soft state, the variability is mostly caused by a variable hard (Comptonized) spectral component of a constant shape superimposed on a constant soft blackbody component. These variability patterns are in agreement with the dependence of the rms variability on the photon energy in the two states. We interpret the observed correlations in terms of theoretical Comptonization models. In the hard state, the variability appears to be driven mostly by changing flux in seed photons Comptonized in a hot thermal plasma cloud with an approximately constant power supply. In the soft state, the variability is consistent with flares of hybrid, thermal/nonthermal, plasma with variable power above a stable cold disk. Also, based on broadband pointed observations simultaneous with those of the ASM and BATSE, we find the intrinsic bolometric luminosity increases by a

  6. Increasing fluid intake and reducing dehydration risk in older people living in long-term care: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunn, Diane; Jimoh, Florence; Wilsher, Stephanie Howard; Hooper, Lee

    2015-02-01

    To assess the efficacy of interventions and environmental factors on increasing fluid intake or reducing dehydration risk in older people living in long-term care facilities. Systematic review of intervention and observational studies. Thirteen electronic databases were searched from inception until September 2013 in all languages. References of included papers and reviews were checked. Intervention and observational studies investigating modifiable factors to increase fluid intake and/or reduce dehydration risk in older people (≥65 years) living in long-term care facilities who could drink orally. Two reviewers independently screened, selected, abstracted data, and assessed risk of bias from included studies; narrative synthesis was performed. A total of 4328 titles and abstracts were identified, 325 full-text articles were obtained and 23 were included in the review. Nineteen intervention and 4 observational studies from 7 countries investigated factors at the resident, institutional, or policy level. Overall, the studies were at high risk of bias due to selection and attrition bias and lack of valid outcome measures of fluid intake and dehydration assessment. Reported findings from 6 of the 9 intervention studies investigating the effect of multicomponent strategies on fluid intake or dehydration described a positive effect. Components included greater choice and availability of beverages, increased staff awareness, and increased staff assistance with drinking and toileting. Implementation of the US Resident Assessment Instrument reduced dehydration prevalence from 3% to 1%, P = .01. Two smaller studies reported positive effects: one on fluid intake in 9 men with Alzheimer disease using high-contrast red cups, the other involved supplementing 13 mildly dehydrated residents with oral hydration solution over 5 days to reduce dehydration. Modifications to the dining environment, advice to residents, presentation of beverages, and mode of delivery (straw vs beaker

  7. Long-term gamma-ray spectral variability of Cygnus X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ling, J.C.; Mahoney, W.A.; Wheaton, WM.A.; Jacobson, A.S.

    1987-01-01

    Data from HEAO 3 observations of 0.05-10-MeV gamma-ray emission from Cyg X-1 during two 90-d periods (in fall 1979 and spring 1980) are compiled in tables and graphs and analyzed statistically to determine the temporal and spectral variability. It is found that a steady increase in 100-keV emission is accompanied by a decrease (and eventual disappearance) of MeV emission. The mechanisms which could theoretically be responsible for these phenomena are discussed. 28 references

  8. The Long-Term Effect on Children of Increasing the Length of Parents' Birth-Related Leave

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wurtz, Astrid

    The length of parents' birth-related leave varies across countries and has been subject of some debate. In this paper, I will focus on some potential benefits of leave. I investigate the long-term effects on children of increasing the length of parents' birth-related leave using a natural...... experiment from 1984 in Denmark when the leave length was increased quite suddenly by almost 50% from 14 to 20 weeks. Regression discontinuity design is used to identify the causal effect of the leave reform and to estimate whether there is a measurable, persistent effect on children's cognitive...... and educational outcomes at ages 15 and 21. A population sample of Danish children born in the months around implementation of the reform and a dataset with Danish PISA-2000 scores are used for the analysis. Results indicate that increasing parents' access to birth-related leave has no measurable effect...

  9. SPITZER OBSERVATIONS OF LONG-TERM INFRARED VARIABILITY AMONG YOUNG STELLAR OBJECTS IN CHAMAELEON I

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flaherty, Kevin M.; Herbst, William [Van Vleck Observatory, Astronomy Department, Wesleyan University, 96 Foss Hill Drive, Middletown, CT 06459 (United States); DeMarchi, Lindsay [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Colgate University, 13 Oak Drive, Hamilton, NY 13346 (United States); Muzerolle, James [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Balog, Zoltan [Max-Planck-Institut fur Astronomie, Konigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Megeath, S. Thomas [Ritter Astrophysical Research Center, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Furlan, Elise [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, 770 S. Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Gutermuth, Robert [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States)

    2016-12-10

    Infrared variability is common among young stellar objects, with surveys finding daily to weekly fluctuations of a few tenths of a magnitude. Space-based observations can produce highly sampled infrared light curves, but are often limited to total baselines of about 1 month due to the orientation of the spacecraft. Here we present observations of the Chameleon I cluster, whose low declination makes it observable by the Spitzer Space Telescope over a 200-day period. We observe 30 young stellar objects with a daily cadence to better sample variability on timescales of months. We find that such variability is common, occurring in ∼80% of the detected cluster members. The change in [3.6]–[4.5] color over 200 days for many of the sources falls between that expected for extinction and fluctuations in disk emission. With our high cadence and long baseline we can derive power spectral density curves covering two orders of magnitude in frequency and find significant power at low frequencies, up to the boundaries of our 200-day survey. Such long timescales are difficult to explain with variations driven by the interaction between the disk and stellar magnetic field, which has a dynamical timescale of days to weeks. The most likely explanation is either structural or temperature fluctuations spread throughout the inner ∼0.5 au of the disk, suggesting that the intrinsic dust structure is highly dynamic.

  10. The uranium industry: long term planning for short term competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vottero, X.

    2000-01-01

    Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. (authors)

  11. Strategies to meet the need for long-term data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, John; Woodward, Mark; Borghi, Claudio; Manolis, Athanasios; Mancia, Giuseppe

    2016-08-01

    Chronic diseases afflict patients for many years, often to the end of life, and there is increasing need for estimating lifelong risk and for evaluating the effects of treatment in the long term. Yet recommendations for lifelong treatment are most frequently based on findings from randomized clinical trials lasting only a few years. There is therefore a clear need for much longer term data, and here we present the advantages and disadvantages of many strategies, including the use of long-term posttrial follow-up, of long-term prospective cohort studies, registry databases, and of administrative databases. We also emphasize the need for long-term cost-effectiveness studies. One of the most promising strategies comes from linkage of data gathered through the ever-expanding pool of administrative databases worldwide with data from other sources, including randomized trials and the many forms of observational study.

  12. Quality indicators for the acute and long-term management of anaphylaxis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhami, Sangeeta; Sheikh, Aadam; Muraro, Antonella

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The quality of acute and long-term anaphylaxis management is variable and this contributes to the poor outcomes experienced by many patients. Clinical practice guidelines have the potential to improve outcomes, but implementing guideline recommendations in routine practice is challeng...

  13. Factors associated with long-term use of hypnotics among patients with chronic insomnia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshikazu Takaesu

    Full Text Available This study investigated factors associated with long-term use of benzodiazepines (BZDs or benzodiazepine receptor agonists (BzRAs as hypnotics in patients with chronic insomnia. Consecutive patients (n = 140 with chronic insomnia were enrolled in this study (68 men and 72 women; mean age, 53.8 ± 10.8 years. All patients filled out a self-assessment questionnaire asking clinical descriptive variables at the baseline of the treatment period; patients received the usual dose of a single type of BZD or BzRA. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI and the Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale were self-assessed at the baseline, and the former was re-evaluated at the time of cessation of medication or at the end of the 6-month treatment period. The PSQI included the following sub-items: evaluating sleep quality (C1, sleep latency (C2, sleep duration (C3, habitual sleep efficiency (C4, frequency of sleep disturbance (C5, use of sleeping medication (C6, and daytime dysfunction (C7. Among the patients, 54.6% needed to continue hypnotics for a 6-month treatment period. Logistic regression analysis revealed that, among descriptive variables, only the PSQI score appeared as a significant factor associated with long-term use {odds ratio (OR = 2.8, 95% confidence interval (CI = 2.0-4.0}. The receiver operating curve (ROC analysis identified that the cut-off PSQI total score at the baseline for predicting long-term use was estimated at 13.5 points (area under the curve = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.8-0.92. Among the sub-items of PSQI, the increases in C1: (OR = 8.4, 95% CI = 2.4-30.0, C3: (OR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.1-11.5, C4: (OR = 11.1, 95% CI = 3.6-33.9, and C6: (OR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.9-6.2 scores were associated with long-term use. This study revealed that a high PSQI score at the baseline, particularly in the sub-items relating to sleep maintenance disturbance, is predictive of long-term hypnotic treatment. Our results imply the limitation of the effectiveness of

  14. Long-term manure application increased greenhouse gas emissions but had no effect on ammonia volatilization in a Northern China upland field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao; Liu, Hongbin; Luo, Jiafa; Wang, Hongyuan; Zhai, Limei; Geng, Yucong; Zhang, Yitao; Li, Jungai; Lei, Qiuliang; Bashir, Muhammad Amjad; Wu, Shuxia; Lindsey, Stuart

    2018-08-15

    The impacts of manure application on soil ammonia (NH 3 ) volatilization and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are of interest for both agronomic and environmental reasons. However, how the swine manure addition affects greenhouse gas and N emissions in North China Plain wheat fields is still unknown. A long-term fertilization experiment was carried out on a maize-wheat rotation system in Northern China (Zea mays L-Triticum aestivum L.) from 1990 to 2017. The experiment included four treatments: (1) No fertilizer (CK), (2) single application of chemical fertilizers (NPK), (3) NPK plus 22.5t/ha swine manure (NPKM), (4) NPK plus 33.7t/ha swine manure (NPKM+). A short-term fertilization experiment was conducted from 2016 to 2017 using the same treatments in a field that had been abandoned for decades. The emissions of NH 3 and GHGs were measured during the wheat season from 2016 to 2017. Results showed that after long-term fertilization the wheat yields for NPKM treatment were 7105kg/ha, which were higher than NPK (3880kg/ha) and NPKM+ treatments (5518kg/ha). The wheat yields were similar after short-term fertilization (6098-6887kg/ha). The NH 3 -N emission factors (EF amm ) for NPKM and NPKM+ treatments (1.1 and 1.1-1.4%, respectively) were lower than NPK treatment (2.2%) in both the long and short-term fertilization treatments. In the long- and short-term experiments the nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission factors (EF nit ) for NPKM+ treatment were 4.2% and 3.7%, respectively, which were higher than for the NPK treatment (3.5% and 2.5%, respectively) and the NPKM treatment (3.6% and 2.2%, respectively). In addition, under long and short-term fertilization, the greenhouse gas intensities for the NPKM+ treatment were 33.7 and 27.0kg CO 2 -eq/kg yield, respectively, which were higher than for the NPKM treatment (22.8 and 21.1kg CO 2 -eq/kg yield, respectively). These results imply that excessive swine manure application does not increase yield but increases GHG emissions

  15. Introduction of long term cycle of reactor operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyati, M.; Tanaka, T.

    2004-01-01

    Introduction of long term cycle of LWR reactor operation at NPP in Japan is considered, and problems of technical, legislative and economical character, increase of power coefficient are discussed. More long term operation period provides decreasing frequency of periodic inspections and reduction of personnel radiation doses. Reliability of fuel, energetic equipment, mechanisms and devices must be taken into account for the decision of technical problems. Consumptions for electric power generation are studied [ru

  16. Modelling the long-term deployment of electricity storage in the global energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despres, Jacques

    2015-01-01

    The current development of wind and solar power sources calls for an improvement of long-term energy models. Indeed, high shares of variable wind and solar productions have short- and long-term impacts on the power system, requiring the development of flexibility options: fast-reacting power plants, demand response, grid enhancement or electricity storage. Our first main contribution is the modelling of electricity storage and grid expansion in the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). We set up new investment mechanisms, where storage development is based on several combined economic values. After categorising the long-term energy models and the power sector modelling tools in a common typology, we showed the need for a better integration of both approaches. Therefore, the second major contribution of our work is the yearly coupling of POLES to a short-term optimisation of the power sector operation, with the European Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (EUCAD). The two-way data exchange allows the long-term coherent scenarios of POLES to be directly backed by the short-term technical detail of EUCAD. Our results forecast a strong and rather quick development of the cheapest flexibility options: grid interconnections, pumped hydro storage and demand response programs, including electric vehicle charging optimisation and vehicle-to-grid storage. The more expensive battery storage presumably finds enough system value in the second half of the century. A sensitivity analysis shows that improving the fixed costs of batteries impacts more the investments than improving their efficiency. We also show the explicit dependency between storage and variable renewable energy sources. (author) [fr

  17. Effects of Increased Nitrogen Deposition and Rotation Length on Long-Term Productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata Plantation in Southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Meifang; Xiang, Wenhua; Tian, Dalun; Deng, Xiangwen; Huang, Zhihong; Zhou, Xiaolu; Peng, Changhui

    2013-01-01

    Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. has been widely planted in subtropical China to meet increasing timber demands, leading to short-rotation practices that deplete soil nutrients. However, increased nitrogen (N) deposition offsets soil N depletion. While long-term experimental data investigating the coupled effects related to short rotation practices and increasing N deposition are scarce, applying model simulations may yield insights. In this study, the CenW3.1 model was validated and parameterized using data from pure C. lanceolata plantations. The model was then used to simulate various changes in long-term productivity. Results indicated that responses of productivity of C. lanceolata plantation to increased N deposition were more related to stand age than N addition, depending on the proportion and age of growing forests. Our results have also shown a rapid peak in growth and N dynamics. The peak is reached sooner and is higher under higher level of N deposition. Short rotation lengths had a greater effect on productivity and N dynamics than high N deposition levels. Productivity and N dynamics decreased as the rotation length decreased. Total productivity levels suggest that a 30-year rotation length maximizes productivity at the 4.9 kg N ha−1 year−1 deposition level. For a specific rotation length, higher N deposition levels resulted in greater overall ecosystem C and N storage, but this positive correlation tendency gradually slowed down with increasing N deposition levels. More pronounced differences in N deposition levels occurred as rotation length decreased. To sustain C. lanceolata plantation productivity without offsite detrimental N effects, the appropriate rotation length is about 20–30 years for N deposition levels below 50 kg N ha−1 year−1 and about 15–20 years for N deposition levels above 50 kg N ha−1 year−1. These results highlight the importance of assessing N effects on carbon management and the long-term productivity of

  18. Long-term course of opioid addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

  19. Unified pre- and postsynaptic long-term plasticity enables reliable and flexible learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Rui Ponte; Froemke, Robert C; Sjöström, P Jesper; van Rossum, Mark Cw

    2015-08-26

    Although it is well known that long-term synaptic plasticity can be expressed both pre- and postsynaptically, the functional consequences of this arrangement have remained elusive. We show that spike-timing-dependent plasticity with both pre- and postsynaptic expression develops receptive fields with reduced variability and improved discriminability compared to postsynaptic plasticity alone. These long-term modifications in receptive field statistics match recent sensory perception experiments. Moreover, learning with this form of plasticity leaves a hidden postsynaptic memory trace that enables fast relearning of previously stored information, providing a cellular substrate for memory savings. Our results reveal essential roles for presynaptic plasticity that are missed when only postsynaptic expression of long-term plasticity is considered, and suggest an experience-dependent distribution of pre- and postsynaptic strength changes.

  20. GLOBALLY INCREASED CROP GROWTH AND CROPPING INTENSITY FROM THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE-BASED OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Chen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001, and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.

  1. The long-term power purchase: Recovery of capacity costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, P.S.

    1990-01-01

    As electric utilities increase their reliance on the long-term power purchase as an alternative to utility-owned generation, the appropriate rate treatment of the costs established in the purchase agreement assumes growing importance. In the November 9, 1989, issue, the authors examined the recent trend among state regulators to treat the long-term purchase in a manner similar to the addition by a utility of a new plant, including a full-scale prudence review. This installment will review recent rulings on the related issue of rate recovery of long-term capacity costs through the fuel cost adjustment clause

  2. Distinct cerebellar engrams in short-term and long-term motor learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen; Nakadate, Kazuhiko; Masugi-Tokita, Miwako; Shutoh, Fumihiro; Aziz, Wajeeha; Tarusawa, Etsuko; Lorincz, Andrea; Molnár, Elek; Kesaf, Sebnem; Li, Yun-Qing; Fukazawa, Yugo; Nagao, Soichi; Shigemoto, Ryuichi

    2014-01-07

    Cerebellar motor learning is suggested to be caused by long-term plasticity of excitatory parallel fiber-Purkinje cell (PF-PC) synapses associated with changes in the number of synaptic AMPA-type glutamate receptors (AMPARs). However, whether the AMPARs decrease or increase in individual PF-PC synapses occurs in physiological motor learning and accounts for memory that lasts over days remains elusive. We combined quantitative SDS-digested freeze-fracture replica labeling for AMPAR and physical dissector electron microscopy with a simple model of cerebellar motor learning, adaptation of horizontal optokinetic response (HOKR) in mouse. After 1-h training of HOKR, short-term adaptation (STA) was accompanied with transient decrease in AMPARs by 28% in target PF-PC synapses. STA was well correlated with AMPAR decrease in individual animals and both STA and AMPAR decrease recovered to basal levels within 24 h. Surprisingly, long-term adaptation (LTA) after five consecutive daily trainings of 1-h HOKR did not alter the number of AMPARs in PF-PC synapses but caused gradual and persistent synapse elimination by 45%, with corresponding PC spine loss by the fifth training day. Furthermore, recovery of LTA after 2 wk was well correlated with increase of PF-PC synapses to the control level. Our findings indicate that the AMPARs decrease in PF-PC synapses and the elimination of these synapses are in vivo engrams in short- and long-term motor learning, respectively, showing a unique type of synaptic plasticity that may contribute to memory consolidation.

  3. A Methodology to Infer Crop Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change Using Long-Term Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manfred A. Lange

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A new methodology to extract crop yield response to climate variability and change from long-term crop yield observations is presented in this study. In contrast to the existing first-difference approach (FDA, the proposed methodology considers that the difference in value between crop yields of two consecutive years reflects necessarily the contributions of climate and management conditions, especially at large spatial scales where both conditions may vary significantly from one year to the next. Our approach was applied to remove the effect of non-climatic factors on crop yield and, hence, to isolate the effect of the observed climate change between 1961 and 2006 on three widely crops grown in three Mediterranean countries—namely wheat, corn and potato—using national-level crop yield observations’ time-series. Obtained results show that the proposed methodology provides us with a ground basis to improve substantially our understanding of crop yield response to climate change at a scale that is relevant to large-scale estimations of agricultural production and to food security analyses; and therefore to reduce uncertainties in estimations of potential climate change effects on agricultural production. Furthermore, a comparison of outputs of our methodology and FDA outputs yielded a difference in terms of maize production in Egypt, for example, that exceeds the production of some neighbouring countries.

  4. Forest wildfire increases soil microbial biomass C:N:P stoichiometry in long-term effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xuan

    2017-04-01

    Boreal forest fire strongly influences carbon (C) stock in permafrost soil by thawing permafrost table which accelerated microbe decomposition process. We studied soil microbial biomass stoichiometry in a gradient of four (3 yr, 25 yr, 46 yr and more than 100 yr) ages since fire in Canada boreal forest. Soil microbial biomass (MB) in long-term after fire is significantly higher than in short-term. MB C and nitrogen (N) were mainly dominated by corresponding soil element concentration and inorganic P, while MB phosphorus (P) changes were fully explained by soil N. Fire ages and soil temperature positively increased MB N and P, indicating the negative impact by fire. Microbial C:N:P gradually increased with fire ages from 15:2:1 to 76:6:1 and then drop down to 17:2:1 in the oldest fire ages. The degree of homeostasis of microbial C, N and P are close to 1 indicates non-homoeostasis within microbial elements, while it of C:N:P is close to 8 shows a strong homeostasis within element ratios and proved microbial stoichiometric ratio is not driven by soil element ratios. In conclusion, i) microbial biomass elements highly depends on soil nutrient supply rather than fire ages; ii) wildfire decreased microbial stoichiometry immediate after fire but increased with years after fire (YF) which at least 3 times higher than > 100 fire ages; iii) microbial biomass C, N and P deviated from strict homeostasis but C:N:P ratio reflects stronger homeostasis.

  5. Long-Term Visual Training Increases Visual Acuity and Long-Term Monocular Deprivation Promotes Ocular Dominance Plasticity in Adult Standard Cage-Raised Mice

    OpenAIRE

    Hosang, Leon; Yusifov, Rashad; Löwel, Siegrid

    2018-01-01

    Abstract For routine behavioral tasks, mice predominantly rely on olfactory cues and tactile information. In contrast, their visual capabilities appear rather restricted, raising the question whether they can improve if vision gets more behaviorally relevant. We therefore performed long-term training using the visual water task (VWT): adult standard cage (SC)-raised mice were trained to swim toward a rewarded grating stimulus so that using visual information avoided excessive swimming toward ...

  6. The long-term variability of atmospheric ozone from the 50-yr observations carried out at Belsk (51.84°N, 20.78°E, Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JANUSZ W. Krzyścin

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Total ozone (TO3 and ozone vertical profile (by the Umkehr method have been measured at Belsk (51.84°N, 20.78°E, Poland, since March 1963. The monthly mean data are analysed for the long-term changes in the period 1975–1996 and 1997–2012, that is, in the increasing and decreasing phases of the ozone-depleting substances (ODS concentration in the mid-altitude stratosphere over the NH mid-latitudes. Standard explanatory variables are selected for the ozone variability attribution to chemical and dynamical processes. A triad of regression models with various formulae for the trend term is examined to get a synergetic effect. The trend term could be: (1 proportional to ODS, (2 piecewise linear (with the turning points in 1975 – the trend onset and in 1997 – the trend overturning, (3 represented by any smooth curve fitted to the ozone time series having ‘natural variations’ removed. Confirming the results from previous studies on the midlatitudinal ozone, the analyses show a weakening of the TO3 trend and the statistically significant positive trend in the upper stratospheric region (33–43 km since 1997. The TO3 depletion in summer and autumn for the period 1997–2012 is found in the Umkehr data due to the ozone decrease in the lower and mid-stratosphere. A novel statistical-simulation-based test is proposed. It uses the bootstrap sample of the smooth trend pattern to calculate statistical significance of hypotheses for the trend variability. The test corroborates the results of the regression models and shows strengthening of the ozone negative trend in summer and autumn, disclosed in the Umkehr data, since about 2005.

  7. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karl, T.R.

    1995-12-01

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  8. Keap1 knockdown increases markers of metabolic syndrome after long-term high fat diet feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    More, Vijay R; Xu, Jialin; Shimpi, Prajakta C; Belgrave, Clyde; Luyendyk, James P; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Slitt, Angela L

    2013-08-01

    The nuclear factor E2-related factor 2 (Nrf2)-Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1 (Keap1) pathway upregulates antioxidant and biotransformation enzyme expression to counter cellular oxidative stress. The contributions of Nrf2 to other cellular functions, such as lipid homeostasis, are emerging. This study was conducted to determine how enhanced Nrf2 activity influences the progression of metabolic syndrome with long-term high-fat diet (HFD) feeding. C57BL/6 and Keap1-knockdown (Keap1-KD) mice, which exhibit enhanced Nrf2 activity, were fed a HFD for 24 weeks. Keap1-KD mice had higher body weight and white adipose tissue mass compared to C57BL/6 mice on HFD, along with increased inflammation and lipogenic gene expression. HFD feeding increased hepatic steatosis and inflammation to a greater extent in Keap1-KD mice compared to C57BL/6 mice, which was associated with increased liver Cd36, fatty acid-binding protein 4, and monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 mRNA expression, as well as increased acetyl-CoA carboxylase 1 and stearoyl-CoA desaturase-1 protein expression. The HFD altered short-term glucose homeostasis to a greater degree in Keap-KD mice compared to C57BL/6 mice, which was accompanied by downregulation of insulin receptor substrate 1 mRNA expression in skeletal muscle. Together, the results indicate that Keap1 knockdown, on treatment with HFD, increases certain markers of metabolic syndrome. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos population of Alberta, Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu L Bourbonnais

    Full Text Available Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife

  10. Employee experience of workplace supervisor contact and support during long-term sickness absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buys, Nicholas J; Selander, John; Sun, Jing

    2017-12-07

    Workplace support is an important factor in promoting successful return to work. The purpose of this article is to examine relationships between supervisor contact, perceived workplace support and demographic variables among employees on long-term sickness absence. Data were collected from 204 public employees at a municipality in Sweden who had been on long term sickness absence (60 days or more) using a 23 question survey instrument that collected information on demographic variables, supervisor contact and perceived workplace support. Most injured employees (97%) reported having contact with their supervisors during their sickness absence, with a majority (56%) reporting high levels of support, including early (58.6%) and multiple (70.7%) contacts. Most were pleased with amount of contact (68.9%) and the majority had discussed workplace accommodations (68.1%). Employees who self-initiated contact, felt the amount of contact was appropriate, had a personal meeting with their supervisors and discussed workplace adjustments reported experiencing higher levels of support from supervisors. Employees on long-term sickness absence appreciate contact from their supervisors and this is associated with perceived workplace support. However, the amount and employee experience of this contact is important. It needs to be perceived by employees as supportive, which includes a focus on strategies (e.g., work adjustment) to facilitate a return to work. Supervisor training is required in this area to support the return to work process. Implications for Rehabilitation Contact and support from workplace supervisors is important to workers on long-term sickness absence. Employees appreciate frequent contact from supervisors during long-terms sickness absence. Employees appreciate a personal meeting with supervisors and the opportunity to discuss issues related to return to work such as work adjustment. Employers should provide training to supervisors on how to communicate and

  11. Long-Term Resource Adequacy, Long-Term Flexibility Requirements, and Revenue Sufficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron P [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Townsend, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ela, Erik [Electric Power Research Institute; Botterud, Audun [Argonne National Laboratory; Levin, Todd [Argonne National Laboratory

    2018-02-15

    Variable generation (VG) can reduce market prices over time and also the energy that other suppliers can sell in the market. The suppliers that are needed to provide capacity and flexibility to meet the long-term reliability requirements may, therefore, earn less revenue. This chapter discusses the topics of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency - that is, determining and acquiring the quantity of capacity that will be needed at some future date and ensuring that those suppliers that offer the capacity receive sufficient revenue to recover their costs. The focus is on the investment time horizon and the installation of sufficient generation capability. First, the chapter discusses resource adequacy, including newer methods of determining adequacy metrics. The chapter then focuses on revenue sufficiency and how suppliers have sufficient opportunity to recover their total costs. The chapter closes with a description of the mechanisms traditionally adopted by electricity markets to mitigate the issues of resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency and discusses the most recent market design changes to address these issues.

  12. Long-term Increases in Flower Production by Growth Forms in Response to Anthropogenic Change in a Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pau, S.; Wright, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    There is mounting evidence that anthropogenic global change is altering the ecology of tropical forests. A limited number of studies have focused on long-term trends in tropical reproductive activity, yet differences in reproductive activity should have consequences for demography and ultimately forest carbon, water, and energy balance. Here we analyze a 28-year record of tropical flower production in response to anthropogenic climate change. We show that a multi-decadal increase in flower production is most strongly driven by rising atmospheric CO2, which had approximately 8x the effect of the Multivariate ENSO Index and approximately 13x the effect of rainfall or solar radiation. Interannual peaks in flower production were associated with greater solar radiation and low rainfall during El Niño years. Observed changes in solar radiation explained flower production better than rainfall (models including solar radiation accounted for 94% of cumulative AICc weight compared to 87% for rainfall). All growth forms (lianas, canopy trees, midstory trees, and shrubs) produced more flowers with increasing CO2 except for understory treelets. The increase in flower production was matched by a lengthening of flowering duration for canopy trees and midstory trees; duration was also longer for understory treelets. Given that anthropogenic CO2 emissions will continue to climb over the next century, the long-term increase in flower production may persist unless offset by increasing cloudiness in the tropics, or until rising CO2 and/or warming temperatures associated with the greenhouse effect pass critical thresholds for plant reproduction.

  13. Surprises and insights from long-term aquatic datasets and experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter K. Dodds; Christopher T. Robinson; Evelyn E. Gaiser; Gretchen J.A. Hansen; Heather Powell; Joseph M. Smith; Nathaniel B. Morse; Sherri L. Johnson; Stanley V. Gregory; Tisza Bell; Timothy K. Kratz; William H. McDowell

    2012-01-01

    Long-term research on freshwater ecosystems provides insights that can be difficult to obtain from other approaches. Widespread monitoring of ecologically relevant water-quality parameters spanning decades can facilitate important tests of ecological principles. Unique long-term data sets and analytical tools are increasingly available, allowing for powerful and...

  14. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2018-02-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  15. Long-term activation of group I metabotropic glutamate receptors increases functional TRPV1-expressing neurons in mouse dorsal root ganglia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takayoshi eMasuoka

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Damaged tissues release glutamate and other chemical mediators for several hours. These chemical mediators contribute to modulation of pruritus and pain. Herein, we investigated the effects of long-term activation of excitatory glutamate receptors on functional expression of transient receptor potential vaniloid type 1 (TRPV1 in dorsal root ganglion (DRG neurons and then on thermal pain behavior. In order to detect the TRPV1-mediated responses in cultured DRG neurons, we monitored intracellular calcium responses to capsaicin, a TRPV1 agonist, with Fura-2. Long-term (4 h treatment with glutamate receptor agonists (glutamate, quisqualate or DHPG increased the proportion of neurons responding to capsaicin through activation of metabotropic glutamate receptor mGluR1, and only partially through the activation of mGluR5; engagement of these receptors was evident in neurons responding to allylisothiocyanate (AITC, a transient receptor potential ankyrin type 1 (TRPA1 agonist. Increase in the proportion was suppressed by phospholipase C, protein kinase C, mitogen/extracellular signal-regulated kinase, p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase or transcription inhibitors. Whole-cell recording was performed to record TRPV1-mediated membrane current; TRPV1 current density significantly increased in the AITC-sensitive neurons after the quisqualate treatment. To elucidate the physiological significance of this phenomenon, a hot plate test was performed. Intraplantar injection of quisqualate or DHPG induced heat hyperalgesia that lasted for 4 h post injection. This chronic hyperalgesia was attenuated by treatment with either mGluR1 or mGluR5 antagonists. These results suggest that long-term activation of mGluR1/5 by peripherally released glutamate may increase the number of neurons expressing functional TRPV1 in DRG, which may be strongly associated with chronic hyperalgesia.

  16. Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB. The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.

  17. Chemotherapy increases long-term survival in patients with adult medulloblastoma--a literature-based meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocakaya, Selin; Beier, Christoph Patrick; Beier, Dagmar

    2016-03-01

    Adult medulloblastoma is a potentially curable malignant entity with an incidence of 0.5-1 per million. Valid data on prognosis, treatment, and demographics are lacking, as most current knowledge stems from retrospective studies. Surgical resection followed by radiotherapy are accepted parts of treatment regimes; however, established prognostic factors and data clarifying the role of chemotherapy are missing. We investigated 227 publications from 1969-2013, with 907 identifiable, individual patients being available for meta-analysis. Demographic data, risk stratification, and treatment of these patients were similar to previous cohorts. The median overall survival (mOS) was 65 months (95% CI: 54.6-75.3) , the 5-year overall survival was 50.9% with 16% of the patients dying more than 5 years after diagnosis. Incomplete resection, clinical and radiological signs for brainstem infiltration, and abstinence from radiotherapy were predictive of worse outcome. Metastatic disease at tumor recurrence was identified as a new prognostic factor, while neither metastasis at initial diagnosis nor desmoplastic/classic histology was correlated with survival. Patients receiving chemotherapy first-line survived significantly longer (mOS: 108 mo, 95% CI: 68.6-148.4) than patients treated with radiation alone (mOS: 57 mo, 95% CI: 39.6-74.4) or patients who received chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. This effect was not biased by tumor stage or decade of treatment. Importantly, (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy also significantly increased the chance for long-term survival (>5 y) compared with radiotherapy alone or chemotherapy at tumor recurrence. This meta-analysis clarifies relevant prognostic factors and suggests that chemotherapy as part of first-line therapy improves overall survival and increases the proportion of patients with long-term survival. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Neuro-Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions

  18. Dryland ecosystem responses to precipitation extremes and wildfire at a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.

    2017-12-01

    Climate is becoming increasingly more variable due to global environmental change, which is evidenced by fewer, but more extreme precipitation events, changes in precipitation seasonality, and longer, higher severity droughts. These changes, combined with a rising incidence of wildfire, have the potential to strongly impact net primary production (NPP) and key biogeochemical cycles, particularly in dryland ecosystems where NPP is sequentially limited by water and nutrient availability. Here we utilize a ten-year dataset from an ongoing long-term field experiment established in 2007 in which we experimentally altered monsoon rainfall variability to examine how our manipulations, along with naturally occurring events, affect NPP and associated biogeochemical cycles in a semi-arid grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Using long-term regional averages, we identified extremely wet monsoon years (242.8 mm, 2013), and extremely dry monsoon years (86.0 mm, 2011; 80.0 mm, 2015) and water years (117.0 mm, 2011). We examined how changes in precipitation variability and extreme events affected ecosystem processes and function particularly in the context of ecosystem recovery following a 2009 wildfire. Response variables included above- and below-ground plant biomass (ANPP & BNPP) and abundance, soil nitrogen availability, and soil CO2 efflux. Mean ANPP ranged from 3.6 g m-2 in 2011 to 254.5 g m-2 in 2013, while BNPP ranged from 23.5 g m-2 in 2015 to 194.2 g m-2 in 2013, demonstrating NPP in our semi-arid grassland is directly linked to extremes in both seasonal and annual precipitation. We also show increased nitrogen deposition positively affects NPP in unburned grassland, but has no significant impact on NPP post-fire except during extremely wet monsoon years. While soil respiration rates reflect lower ANPP post-fire, patterns in CO2 efflux have not been shown to change significantly in that efflux is greatest following large precipitation events preceded by longer drying

  19. Increasing importance of precipitation variability on global livestock grazing lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloat, Lindsey L.; Gerber, James S.; Samberg, Leah H.; Smith, William K.; Herrero, Mario; Ferreira, Laerte G.; Godde, Cécile M.; West, Paul C.

    2018-03-01

    Pastures and rangelands underpin global meat and milk production and are a critical resource for millions of people dependent on livestock for food security1,2. Forage growth, which is highly climate dependent3,4, is potentially vulnerable to climate change, although precisely where and to what extent remains relatively unexplored. In this study, we assess climate-based threats to global pastures, with a specific focus on changes in within- and between-year precipitation variability (precipitation concentration index (PCI) and coefficient of variation of precipitation (CVP), respectively). Relating global satellite measures of vegetation greenness (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to key climatic factors reveals that CVP is a significant, yet often overlooked, constraint on vegetation productivity across global pastures. Using independent stocking data, we found that areas with high CVP support lower livestock densities than less-variable regions. Globally, pastures experience about a 25% greater year-to-year precipitation variation (CVP = 0.27) than the average global land surface area (0.21). Over the past century, CVP has generally increased across pasture areas, although both positive (49% of pasture area) and negative (31% of pasture area) trends exist. We identify regions in which livestock grazing is important for local food access and economies, and discuss the potential for pasture intensification in the context of long-term regional trends in precipitation variability.

  20. Long-Term Care Insurance: Does Experience Matter?*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Norma B.; Skira, Meghan M.; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

    2015-01-01

    We examine whether long-term care (LTC) experience helps explain the low demand for long-term care insurance (LTCI). We test if expectations about future informal care receipt, expectations about inheritance receipt, and LTCI purchase decisions vary between individuals whose parents or in-laws have used LTC versus those who have not. We find parental use of a nursing home decreases expectations that one’s children will provide informal care, consistent with the demonstration effect. Nursing home use by in-laws does not have the same impact, suggesting that individuals are responding to information gained about their own aging trajectory. Nursing home use by either a parent or in-law increases LTCI purchase probability by 0.8 percentage points, with no significant difference in response between parents’ and in-laws’ use. The estimated increase in purchase probability from experience with LTC is about half the previously estimated increase from tax policy-induced price decreases. PMID:25647006

  1. Long-term care insurance: Does experience matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Norma B; Skira, Meghan M; Van Houtven, Courtney Harold

    2015-03-01

    We examine whether long-term care (LTC) experience helps explain the low demand for long-term care insurance (LTCI). We test if expectations about future informal care receipt, expectations about inheritance receipt, and LTCI purchase decisions vary between individuals whose parents or in-laws have used LTC versus those who have not. We find parental use of a nursing home decreases expectations that one's children will provide informal care, consistent with the demonstration effect. Nursing home use by in-laws does not have the same impact, suggesting that individuals are responding to information gained about their own aging trajectory. Nursing home use by either a parent or in-law increases LTCI purchase probability by 0.8 percentage points, with no significant difference in response between parents' and in-laws' use. The estimated increase in purchase probability from experience with LTC is about half the previously estimated increase from tax policy-induced price decreases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Long-term (1993-2013) changes in macrozooplankton off the Western Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Deborah K.; Ruck, Kate E.; Gleiber, Miram R.; Garzio, Lori M.; Cope, Joseph S.; Bernard, Kim S.; Stammerjohn, Sharon E.; Schofield, Oscar M. E.; Quetin, Langdon B.; Ross, Robin M.

    2015-07-01

    The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and where a high apex predator biomass is supported in large part by macrozooplankton. We examined trends in summer (January-February) abundance of major taxa of macrozooplankton along the WAP over two decades (1993-2013) and their relationship with environmental parameters (sea ice, atmospheric climate indices, sea surface temperature, and phytoplankton biomass and productivity). Macrozooplankton were collected from the top 120 m of the water column in a mid-Peninsula study region divided into latitudinal (North, South, and Far South) and cross-shelf (coastal, shelf, slope) sub-regions. Trends for krill species included a 5-year cycle in abundance peaks (positive anomalies) for Euphausia superba, but no directional long-term trend, and an increase in Thysanoessa macrura in the North; variability in both species was strongly influenced by primary production 2-years prior. E. crystallorophias abundance was best explained by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), and was more abundant in higher ice conditions. The salp Salpa thompsoni and thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina cycled between negative and positive anomalies in the North, but showed increasing positive anomalies in the South over time. Variation in salp and pteropod abundance was best explained by SAM and the MEI, respectively, and both species were more abundant in lower ice conditions. There was a long-term increase in some carnivorous gelatinous zooplankton (polychaete worm Tomopteris spp.) and amphipods. Abundance of Pseudosagitta spp. chaetognaths was closely related to SAM, with higher abundance tied to lower ice conditions. Long-term changes and sub-decadal cycles of WAP macrozooplankton community composition may affect energy transfer to higher trophic levels, and alter biogeochemical cycling in this seasonally productive and sensitive polar ecosystem.

  3. GPS Imaging of Time-Variable Earthquake Hazard: The Hilton Creek Fault, Long Valley California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.

    2016-12-01

    The Hilton Creek Fault, in Long Valley, California is a down-to-the-east normal fault that bounds the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada/Great Valley microplate, and lies half inside and half outside the magmatically active caldera. Despite the dense coverage with GPS networks, the rapid and time-variable surface deformation attributable to sporadic magmatic inflation beneath the resurgent dome makes it difficult to use traditional geodetic methods to estimate the slip rate of the fault. While geologic studies identify cumulative offset, constrain timing of past earthquakes, and constrain a Quaternary slip rate to within 1-5 mm/yr, it is not currently possible to use geologic data to evaluate how the potential for slip correlates with transient caldera inflation. To estimate time-variable seismic hazard of the fault we estimate its instantaneous slip rate from GPS data using a new set of algorithms for robust estimation of velocity and strain rate fields and fault slip rates. From the GPS time series, we use the robust MIDAS algorithm to obtain time series of velocity that are highly insensitive to the effects of seasonality, outliers and steps in the data. We then use robust imaging of the velocity field to estimate a gridded time variable velocity field. Then we estimate fault slip rate at each time using a new technique that forms ad-hoc block representations that honor fault geometries, network complexity, connectivity, but does not require labor-intensive drawing of block boundaries. The results are compared to other slip rate estimates that have implications for hazard over different time scales. Time invariant long term seismic hazard is proportional to the long term slip rate accessible from geologic data. Contemporary time-invariant hazard, however, may differ from the long term rate, and is estimated from the geodetic velocity field that has been corrected for the effects of magmatic inflation in the caldera using a published model of a dipping ellipsoidal

  4. Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eimori, Keiko; Endo, Naoto; Uchiyama, Seiji; Takahashi, Yoshinori; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Kei

    2016-01-01

    Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism. This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH) vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years. Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients.

  5. Obesogenic memory can confer long-term increases in adipose tissue but not liver inflammation and insulin resistance after weight loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schmitz

    2016-05-01

    Conclusions: These results demonstrate that although sustained weight loss improves systemic glucose homeostasis, primarily through improved inflammation and insulin action in liver, a remarkable obesogenic memory can confer long-term increases in adipose tissue inflammation and insulin resistance in mice as well as in a significant subpopulation of obese patients.

  6. Abnormal speech spectrum and increased pitch variability in young autistic children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoram S Bonneh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD who can speak often exhibit abnormal voice quality and speech prosody, but the exact nature and underlying mechanisms of these abnormalities, as well as their diagnostic power are currently unknown. Here we quantified speech abnormalities in terms of the properties of the long-term average spectrum (LTAS and pitch variability in speech samples of 83 children (41 with ASD, 42 controls ages 4-6.5 years, recorded while they named a sequence of daily-life pictures for 60 sec. We found a significant difference in the group’s average spectra, with ASD spectra being shallower and exhibiting less harmonic structure. Contrary to the common impression of monotonic speech in autism, the ASD children had a significantly larger pitch range and variability across time. A measure of this variability, optimally tuned for the sample, yielded 86% success (90% specificity, 80% sensitivity in classifying ASD in the sample. These results indicate that speech abnormalities in ASD are reflected in its spectral content and pitch variability. This variability could imply abnormal processing of auditory feedback or elevated noise and instability in the mechanisms that control pitch. The current results are a first step towards developing speech-spectrum-based bio-markers for early diagnosis of ASD.

  7. Soman poisoning increases neural progenitor proliferation and induces long-term glial activation in mouse brain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collombet, Jean-Marc; Four, Elise; Bernabe, Denis; Masqueliez, Catherine; Burckhart, Marie-France; Baille, Valerie; Baubichon, Dominique; Lallement, Guy

    2005-01-01

    To date, only short-term glial reaction has been extensively studied following soman or other warfare neurotoxicant poisoning. In a context of cell therapy by neural progenitor engraftment to repair brain damage, the long-term effect of soman on glial reaction and neural progenitor division was analyzed in the present study. The effect of soman poisoning was estimated in mouse brains at various times ranging from 1 to 90 days post-poisoning. Using immunochemistry and dye staining techniques (hemalun-eosin staining), the number of degenerating neurons, the number of dividing neural progenitors, and microglial, astroglial or oligodendroglial cell activation were studied. Soman poisoning led to rapid and massive (post-soman day 1) death of mature neurons as assessed by hemalun-eosin staining. Following this acute poisoning phase, a weak toxicity effect on mature neurons was still observed for a period of 1 month after poisoning. A massive short-termed microgliosis peaked on day 3 post-poisoning. Delayed astrogliosis was observed from 3 to 90 days after soman poisoning, contributing to glial scar formation. On the other hand, oligodendroglial cells or their precursors were practically unaffected by soman poisoning. Interestingly, neural progenitors located in the subgranular zone of the dentate gyrus (SGZ) or in the subventricular zone (SVZ) of the brain survived soman poisoning. Furthermore, soman poisoning significantly increased neural progenitor proliferation in both SGZ and SVZ brain areas on post-soman day 3 or day 8, respectively. This increased proliferation rate was detected up to 1 month after poisoning

  8. Long- and short-term complications of episiotomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İsmet Gün

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Although extensively applied in obstetrics practice to facilitate delivery by increasing the vaginal birth conduit, most episiotomy studies are in the context of short- or medium-term outcomes, and the number of studies investigating the long-term effects is insufficient. Episiotomy is often considered associated with urinary and/or anal incontinence and dyspareunia; however, there is no concrete evidence for this issue. Current meta-analyses and reviews that assessed the studies available in the literature revealed that episiotomy does not decrease the rates of urinary incontinence, perineal pain, and sexual dysfunction and that routine episiotomy does not prevent pelvic floor damage; thus, the recommended use of mediolateral episiotomy is restricted, rather than routine. According to the limited number of studies on sexual function, there seems to be a linear relationship between the degree of perineal laceration and postpartum dyspareunia. It is still not clear whether episiotomy has any impact on pelvic floor relaxation, pelvic organ prolapse, and sexual dysfunction in the long term. PRECIS: The long-term influences of episiotomy on urinary and/or fecal incontinence, pelvic floor dysfunction, sexual function, and dyspareunea are still not clear and studies on these issues are necessary.

  9. Associations of long-term fine particulate matter exposure with prevalent hypertension and increased blood pressure in older Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Trenton; Pun, Vivian C; Manjourides, Justin; Suh, Helen

    2018-07-01

    Hypertension is a highly prevalent cardiovascular risk factor. It is possible that air pollution, also an established cardiovascular risk factor, may contribute to cardiovascular disease through increasing blood pressure. Previous studies evaluating associations between air pollution and blood pressure have had mixed results. We examined the association between long-term (one-year moving average) air pollutant exposures, prevalent hypertension and blood pressure in 4121 older Americans (57+ years) enrolled in the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project. We estimated exposures to PM 2.5 using spatio-temporal models and used logistic regression accounting for repeated measures to evaluate the association between long-term average PM 2.5 and prevalence odds of hypertension. We additionally used linear regression to evaluate the associations between air pollutants and systolic, diastolic, mean arterial, and pulse pressures. Health effect models were adjusted for a number of demographic, health and socioeconomic covariates. An inter-quartile range (3.91 μg/m 3 ) increase in the one-year moving average of PM 2.5 was associated with increased: Odds of prevalent hypertension (POR 1.24, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.38), systolic blood pressure (0.93 mm Hg, 95% CI: 0.05, 1.80) and pulse pressure (0.89 mm Hg, 95% CI: 0.21, 1.58). Dose-response relationships were also observed. PM 2.5 was associated with increased odds of prevalent hypertension, and increased systolic pressure and pulse pressure in a cohort of older Americans. These findings add to the growing evidence that air pollution may be an important risk factor for hypertension and perturbations in blood pressure. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

    2018-03-01

    Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

  11. Plastic mulching in agriculture. Trading short-term agronomic benefits for long-term soil degradation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinmetz, Zacharias; Wollmann, Claudia; Schaefer, Miriam; Buchmann, Christian; David, Jan [Institute for Environmental Sciences, Group of Environmental and Soil Chemistry, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Tröger, Josephine [Department of Psychology, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Interdisciplinary Research Group on Environmental Issues, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Muñoz, Katherine [Institute for Environmental Sciences, Group of Environmental and Soil Chemistry, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Interdisciplinary Research Group on Environmental Issues, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Frör, Oliver [Institute for Environmental Sciences, Group of Environmental Economics, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany); Schaumann, Gabriele Ellen, E-mail: schaumann@uni-landau.de [Institute for Environmental Sciences, Group of Environmental and Soil Chemistry, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau (Germany)

    2016-04-15

    Plastic mulching has become a globally applied agricultural practice for its instant economic benefits such as higher yields, earlier harvests, improved fruit quality and increased water-use efficiency. However, knowledge of the sustainability of plastic mulching remains vague in terms of both an environmental and agronomic perspective. This review critically discusses the current understanding of the environmental impact of plastic mulch use by linking knowledge of agricultural benefits and research on the life cycle of plastic mulches with direct and indirect implications for long-term soil quality and ecosystem services. Adverse effects may arise from plastic additives, enhanced pesticide runoff and plastic residues likely to fragment into microplastics but remaining chemically intact and accumulating in soil where they can successively sorb agrochemicals. The quantification of microplastics in soil remains challenging due to the lack of appropriate analytical techniques. The cost and effort of recovering and recycling used mulching films may offset the aforementioned benefits in the long term. However, comparative and long-term agronomic assessments have not yet been conducted. Furthermore, plastic mulches have the potential to alter soil quality by shifting the edaphic biocoenosis (e.g. towards mycotoxigenic fungi), accelerate C/N metabolism eventually depleting soil organic matter stocks, increase soil water repellency and favour the release of greenhouse gases. A substantial process understanding of the interactions between the soil microclimate, water supply and biological activity under plastic mulches is still lacking but required to estimate potential risks for long-term soil quality. Currently, farmers mostly base their decision to apply plastic mulches rather on expected short-term benefits than on the consideration of long-term consequences. Future interdisciplinary research should therefore gain a deeper understanding of the incentives for farmers

  12. Plastic mulching in agriculture. Trading short-term agronomic benefits for long-term soil degradation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinmetz, Zacharias; Wollmann, Claudia; Schaefer, Miriam; Buchmann, Christian; David, Jan; Tröger, Josephine; Muñoz, Katherine; Frör, Oliver; Schaumann, Gabriele Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Plastic mulching has become a globally applied agricultural practice for its instant economic benefits such as higher yields, earlier harvests, improved fruit quality and increased water-use efficiency. However, knowledge of the sustainability of plastic mulching remains vague in terms of both an environmental and agronomic perspective. This review critically discusses the current understanding of the environmental impact of plastic mulch use by linking knowledge of agricultural benefits and research on the life cycle of plastic mulches with direct and indirect implications for long-term soil quality and ecosystem services. Adverse effects may arise from plastic additives, enhanced pesticide runoff and plastic residues likely to fragment into microplastics but remaining chemically intact and accumulating in soil where they can successively sorb agrochemicals. The quantification of microplastics in soil remains challenging due to the lack of appropriate analytical techniques. The cost and effort of recovering and recycling used mulching films may offset the aforementioned benefits in the long term. However, comparative and long-term agronomic assessments have not yet been conducted. Furthermore, plastic mulches have the potential to alter soil quality by shifting the edaphic biocoenosis (e.g. towards mycotoxigenic fungi), accelerate C/N metabolism eventually depleting soil organic matter stocks, increase soil water repellency and favour the release of greenhouse gases. A substantial process understanding of the interactions between the soil microclimate, water supply and biological activity under plastic mulches is still lacking but required to estimate potential risks for long-term soil quality. Currently, farmers mostly base their decision to apply plastic mulches rather on expected short-term benefits than on the consideration of long-term consequences. Future interdisciplinary research should therefore gain a deeper understanding of the incentives for farmers

  13. Effects of long-term dharma-chan meditation on cardiorespiratory synchronization and heart rate variability behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chih-Hao; Lo, Pei-Chen

    2013-04-01

    Remarkable changes in cardiorespiratory interactions are frequently experienced by Chan meditation practitioners following years of practice. This study compares the results of our study on cardiorespiratory interactions for novice (control group) and experienced (experimental group) Chan meditation practitioners. The effectual co-action between the cardiac and respiratory systems was evaluated by the degree of cardiorespiratory phase synchronization (CRPS). In addition, an adaptive-frequency-range (AFR) scheme to reliably quantify heart rate variability (HRV) was developed for assessing the regulation of sympathetic-parasympathetic activity and the efficiency of pulmonary gas exchange. The enhanced HRV method, named HRVAFR, can resolve the issue of overestimating HRV under the condition of slow respiration rates, which is frequently encountered in studies on Chan meditation practitioners. In the comparison of the three data sets collected from the two groups, our findings resulted in innovative hypotheses to interpret the extraordinary process of the rejuvenation of cardiorespiratory functions through long-term Dharma-Chan meditation practice. Particularly, advanced practitioners exhibit a continuously high degree of cardiorespiratory phase synchronization, even during rapid breathing. Based on our post-experimental interview with advanced practitioners, the activation of inner Chakra energy, during the course of Chan-detachment practice, frequently induces perceptible physiological-mental reformation, including an efficient mechanism for regulating cardiorespiratory interactions.

  14. Illicit stimulant use in humans is associated with a long-term increase in tremor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley C Flavel

    Full Text Available Use of illicit stimulants such as methamphetamine, cocaine, and ecstasy is a significant health problem. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that 14-57 million people use stimulants each year. Chronic use of illicit stimulants can cause neurotoxicity in animals and humans but the long-term functional consequences are not well understood. Stimulant users self-report problems with tremor whilst abstinent. Thus, the aim of the current study was to investigate the long-term effect of stimulant use on human tremor during rest and movement. We hypothesized that individuals with a history of stimulant use would exhibit abnormally large tremor during rest and movement. Tremor was assessed in abstinent ecstasy users (n = 9; 22 ± 3 yrs and abstinent users of amphetamine-like drugs (n = 7; 33 ± 9 yrs and in two control groups: non-drug users (n = 23; 27 ± 8 yrs and cannabis users (n = 12; 24 ± 7 yrs. Tremor was measured with an accelerometer attached to the index finger at rest (30 s and during flexion and extension of the index finger (30 s. Acceleration traces were analyzed with fast-Fourier transform. During movement, tremor amplitude was significantly greater in ecstasy users than in non-drug users (frequency range 3.9-13.3 Hz; P<0.05, but was unaffected in cannabis users or users of amphetamine-like drugs. The peak frequency of tremor did not significantly differ between groups nor did resting tremor. In conclusion, abstinent ecstasy users exhibit an abnormally large tremor during movement. Further work is required to determine if the abnormality translates to increased risk of movement disorders in this population.

  15. Reforming Long-Term Care Funding in Alberta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, R Trafford; Repin, Nadya; Sutherland, Jason M

    2015-01-01

    Like many provinces across Canada, Alberta is facing growing demand for long-term care. Issues with the mixed funding model used to pay long-term care providers had Alberta Health Services concerned that it was not efficiently meeting the demand for long-term care. Consequently, in 2010, Alberta Health Services introduced the patient/care-based funding (PCBF) model. PCBF is similar to activity-based funding in that it directly ties the complexity and care needs of long-term care residents to the payment received by long-term care providers. This review describes PCBF and discusses some of its strengths and weaknesses. In doing so, this review is intended to inform other provinces faced with similar long-term care challenges and contemplating their own funding reforms.

  16. Long-term phenology and variability of Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Steenkamp, K

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available and classification of vegetation, (ii) studying the impact of climate change, and influence of rainfall variability (iii) monitoring Satellite-derived phenology and (iv) detecting changes in land use/ land cover. This study analyzed vegetation phenology across...

  17. Safety of long-term PPI therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reimer, Christina

    2013-01-01

    Proton pump inhibitors have become the mainstay of medical treatment of acid-related disorders. Long-term use is becoming increasingly common, in some cases without a proper indication. A large number of mainly observational studies on a very wide range of possible associations have been publishe...... to a careful evaluation of the indication for PPI treatment....

  18. Long-term variability in the X-ray emission of RX J0720.4-3125

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, C.P.; Vink, J.; Méndez, R.M.; Verbunt, F.

    2004-01-01

    We detect a gradual, long-term change in the shape of the X-ray spectrum of the isolated neutron star RX J0720.4-3125, such that the spectrum of the source can no longer be described as a blackbody spectrum. The change is accompanied by an energy-dependent change in the pulse profile. If the X-ray

  19. The Long-Term Public Health Benefits of Breastfeeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binns, Colin; Lee, MiKyung; Low, Wah Yun

    2016-01-01

    Breastfeeding has many health benefits, both in the short term and the longer term, to infants and their mothers. There is an increasing number of studies that report on associations between breastfeeding and long-term protection against chronic disease. Recent research evidence is reviewed in this study, building on previous authoritative reviews. The recent World Health Organization reviews of the short- and long-term benefits of breastfeeding concluded that there was strong evidence for many public health benefits of breastfeeding. Cognitive development is improved by breastfeeding, and infants who are breastfed and mothers who breastfeed have lower rates of obesity. Other chronic diseases that are reduced by breastfeeding include diabetes (both type 1 and type 2), obesity, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, hyperlipidemia, and some types of cancer. © 2015 APJPH.

  20. Patient time and out-of-pocket costs for long-term prostate cancer survivors in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Claire; Bremner, Karen E; Ni, Andy; Alibhai, Shabbir M H; Laporte, Audrey; Krahn, Murray D

    2014-03-01

    Time and out-of-pocket (OOP) costs can represent a substantial burden for cancer patients but have not been described for long-term cancer survivors. We estimated these costs, their predictors, and their relationship to financial income, among a cohort of long-term prostate cancer (PC) survivors. A population-based, community-dwelling, geographically diverse sample of long-term (2-13 years) PC survivors in Ontario, Canada, was identified from the Ontario Cancer Registry and contacted through their referring physicians. We obtained data on demographics, health care resource use, and OOP costs through mailed questionnaires and conducted chart reviews to obtain clinical data. We compared mean annual time and OOP costs (2006 Canadian dollars) across clinical and sociodemographic characteristics and examined the association between costs and four groups of predictors (patient, disease, system, symptom) using two-part regression models. Patients' (N = 585) mean age was 73 years; 77 % were retired, and 42 % reported total annual incomes less than $40,000. Overall, mean time costs were $838/year and mean OOP costs were $200/year. Although generally low, total costs represented approximately 10 % of income for lower income patients. No demographic variables were associated with costs. Radical prostatectomy, younger age, poor urinary function, current androgen deprivation therapy, and recent diagnosis were significantly associated with increased likelihood of incurring any costs, but only urinary function significantly affected total amount. Time and OOP costs are modest for most long-term PC survivors but can represent a substantial burden for lower income patients. Even several years after diagnosis, PC-specific treatments and treatment-related dysfunction are associated with increased costs. Time and out-of-pocket costs are generally manageable for long-term PC survivors but can be a significant burden mainly for lower income patients. The effects of PC

  1. Long-term stability of orbits in storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warnock, R.L.; Ruth, R.D.

    1990-06-01

    We describe a numerical method to establish long-term bounds on nonlinear Hamiltonian motion. By bounding the change in a nearly constant action variable, uniformly in initial condition, one can predict stability for N turns by tracking many orbits for a member of turns of N 0 much less than N. In a first application to a model sextupole lattice in a region of strong nonlinearity, we predict stability of betatron motion in two degrees of freedom for 10 8 turns. 5 refs., 3 figs

  2. Long-term trends in geomagnetic and climatic variability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bucha, Václav

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 27, 6/7 (2002), s. 427-731 ISSN 1474-7065 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012806 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : geomagnetic forcing * climatic variability * global warming Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography

  3. Future of long-term care financing for the elderly in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Soonman

    2008-01-01

    With rapid aging, change in family structure, and the increase in the labor participation of women, the demand for long-term care has been increasing in Korea. Inappropriate utilization of medical care by the elderly in health care institutions, such as social admissions, also puts a financial burden on the health insurance system. The widening gap between the need for long-term care and the capacity of welfare programs to fulfill that need, along with a rather new national pension scheme and the limited economic capacity of the elderly, calls for a new public financing mechanism to provide protection for a broader range of old people from the costs of long-term care. Many important decisions are yet to be made, although Korea is likely to introduce social insurance for long-term care rather than tax-based financing, following the tradition of social health insurance. Whether it should cover only the elderly longterm care or all types of long-term care including disability of all age groups will have a critical impact on social solidarity and the financial sustainability of the new long-term care insurance. Generosity of benefits or the level of out-of-pocket payment, the role of cash benefits, and the relation with health insurance scheme all should be taken into account in the design of a new financing scheme. Lack of care personnel and facilities is also a barrier to the implementation of public long-term care financing in Korea, and the implementation strategy needs to be carved out carefully.

  4. Functional adjustments of xylem anatomy to climatic variability: insights from long-term Ilex aquifolium tree-ring series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rita, Angelo; Cherubini, Paolo; Leonardi, Stefano; Todaro, Luigi; Borghetti, Marco

    2015-08-01

    The present study assessed the effects of climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits, including ring width, vessel size, vessel frequency and derived variables, i.e., potential hydraulic conductivity and xylem vulnerability to cavitation in Ilex aquifolium L. trees using long-term tree-ring time series obtained at two climatically contrasting sites, one mesic site in Switzerland (CH) and one drought-prone site in Italy (ITA). Relationships were explored by examining different xylem traits, and point pattern analysis was applied to investigate vessel clustering. We also used generalized additive models and bootstrap correlation functions to describe temperature and precipitation effects. Results indicated modified radial growth and xylem anatomy in trees over the last century; in particular, vessel frequency increased markedly at both sites in recent years, and all xylem traits examined, with the exception of xylem cavitation vulnerability, were higher at the CH mesic compared with the ITA drought site. A significant vessel clustering was observed at the ITA site, which could contribute to an enhanced tolerance to drought-induced embolism. Flat and negative relationships between vessel size and ring width were observed, suggesting carbon was not allocated to radial growth under conditions which favored stem water conduction. Finally, in most cases results indicated that climatic conditions influenced functional anatomical traits more substantially than tree radial growth, suggesting a crucial role of functional xylem anatomy in plant acclimation to future climatic conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Industrial Foundations as Long-Term Owners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Steen; Poulsen, Thomas; Børsting, Christa Winther

    Short-termism has become a serious concern for corporate governance, and this has inspired a search for institutional arrangements to promote long-term decision-making. In this paper, we call attention to long-term ownership by industrial foundations, which is common in Northern Europe but little...... known in the rest of the world. We use a unique Danish data set to document that industrial foundations are long-term owners that practice long-term governance. We show that foundation ownership is highly stable compared to other ownership structures. Foundation-owned companies replace managers less...... frequently. They have conservative capital structures with low financial leverage. They score higher on an index of long-termism in finance, investment, and employment. They survive longer. Overall, our paper supports the hypothesis that corporate time horizons are influenced by ownership structures...

  6. Gastrointestinal Symptoms in Celiac Disease Patients on a Long-Term Gluten-Free Diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurikka, Pilvi; Salmi, Teea; Collin, Pekka; Huhtala, Heini; Mäki, Markku; Kaukinen, Katri; Kurppa, Kalle

    2016-07-14

    Experience suggests that many celiac patients suffer from persistent symptoms despite a long-term gluten-free diet (GFD). We investigated the prevalence and severity of these symptoms in patients with variable duration of GFD. Altogether, 856 patients were classified into untreated (n = 128), short-term GFD (1-2 years, n = 93) and long-term GFD (≥3 years, n = 635) groups. Analyses were made of clinical and histological data and dietary adherence. Symptoms were evaluated by the validated GSRS questionnaire. One-hundred-sixty healthy subjects comprised the control group. Further, the severity of symptoms was compared with that in peptic ulcer, reflux disease, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Altogether, 93% of the short-term and 94% of the long-term treated patients had a strict GFD and recovered mucosa. Untreated patients had more diarrhea, indigestion and abdominal pain than those on GFD and controls. There were no differences in symptoms between the short- and long-term GFD groups, but both yielded poorer GSRS total score than controls (p = 0.03 and p = 0.05, respectively). Furthermore, patients treated 1-2 years had more diarrhea (p = 0.03) and those treated >10 years more reflux (p = 0.04) than controls. Long-term treated celiac patients showed relatively mild symptoms compared with other gastrointestinal diseases. Based on our results, good response to GFD sustained in long-term follow-up, but not all patients reach the level of healthy individuals.

  7. Validation of traffic-related air pollution exposure estimates for long-term studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Roosbroeck, S.

    2007-01-01

    This thesis describes a series of studies that investigate the validity of using outdoor concentrations and/or traffic-related indicator exposure variables as a measure for exposure assessment in epidemiological studies on the long-term effect of traffic-related air pollution. A pilot study was

  8. Short- versus long-term radon detectors: a comparative study in Galicia, NW Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruano-Ravina, A.; Castro-Bernardez, M.; Sande-Meijide, M.; Vargas, A.; Barros-Dios, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    As reported in previous studies, Galicia (NW Spain) is an area of high radon concentrations. This study was sought to analyze the correlation between short-term (activated carbon) and long-term (alpha particle track) detectors in this geographic area, and ascertain whether there were differences in their readings that might be influenced by other variables. A comparison study, as part of a case-control study was designed in which two detectors, one of each type, were placed in the selected homes. A total of 391 homes yielded readings with both detectors. The results indicated that there was a relatively good correlation between both types of monitors (correlation coefficient 0.608; p < 0.001). The highest correlations between both detectors were observed for unventilated homes, coastal sites, and the oldest buildings. Short-term and long-term detectors do not show a similar performance in all settings or situations. It is advisable to use long-term detectors whenever possible

  9. Short- versus long-term radon detectors: a comparative study in Galicia, NW Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruano-Ravina, A. [Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Santiago de Compostela, C/San Francisco s/n, 15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Galician Agency for Health Technology Assessment, Galician Health Service, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); CIBER de Epidemiologia y Salud Publica, CIBERESP (Spain)], E-mail: mralbert@usc.es; Castro-Bernardez, M. [Epidemiology Department, Directorate-General for Public Health, Galician Regional Authority (Spain); Sande-Meijide, M. [Preventive Medicine Unit, Ourense Hospital Complex, Galician Health Service (Spain); Vargas, A. [Energy Techniques Institute, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain); Barros-Dios, J.M. [Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Santiago de Compostela, C/San Francisco s/n, 15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); CIBER de Epidemiologia y Salud Publica, CIBERESP (Spain); Preventive Medicine Unit, Santiago de Compostela University Hospital, Galician Health Service (Spain)

    2008-07-15

    As reported in previous studies, Galicia (NW Spain) is an area of high radon concentrations. This study was sought to analyze the correlation between short-term (activated carbon) and long-term (alpha particle track) detectors in this geographic area, and ascertain whether there were differences in their readings that might be influenced by other variables. A comparison study, as part of a case-control study was designed in which two detectors, one of each type, were placed in the selected homes. A total of 391 homes yielded readings with both detectors. The results indicated that there was a relatively good correlation between both types of monitors (correlation coefficient 0.608; p < 0.001). The highest correlations between both detectors were observed for unventilated homes, coastal sites, and the oldest buildings. Short-term and long-term detectors do not show a similar performance in all settings or situations. It is advisable to use long-term detectors whenever possible.

  10. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

  11. Shifting the Paradigm for Long Term Monitoring at Legacy Sites to Improve Performance while Reducing Cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eddy-Dilek, Carol A.; Looney, Brian B.; Seaman, John; Kmetz, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    A major issue facing many government and private industry sites that were previously contaminated with radioactive and chemical wastes is that often the sites cannot be cleaned up enough to permit unrestricted human access. These sites will require long-term management, in some cases indefinitely, leaving site owners with the challenge of protecting human health and environmental quality in a cost effective manner. Long-term monitoring of groundwater contamination is one of the largest projected costs in the life cycle of environmental management at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the larger DOE complex, and many large federal and private sites. Currently, most monitoring strategies are focused on laboratory measurements of contaminants measured in groundwater samples collected from wells. This approach is expensive, and provides limited and lagging information about the effectiveness of cleanup activities and the behavior of the residual contamination. Over the last twenty years, DOE and other federal agencies have made significant investments in the development of various types of sensors and strategies that would allow for remote analysis of contaminants in groundwater, but these approaches do not promise significant reductions in risk or cost. Scientists at SRS have developed a new paradigm to simultaneously improve the performance of long term monitoring systems while lowering the overall cost of monitoring. This alternative approach incorporates traditional point measurements of contaminant concentration with measurements of controlling variables including boundary conditions, master variables, and traditional plume/contaminant variables. Boundary conditions are the overall driving forces that control plume movement and therefore provide leading indication to changes in plume stability. These variables include metrics associated with meteorology, hydrology, hydrogeology, and land use. Master variables are the key variables that control the chemistry of the

  12. Risk assessment for long-term post-accident sequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellia-Hervy, A.; Ducamp, F.

    1987-11-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis, currently conducted by the CEA (French Atomic Energy Commission) for the French replicate series of 900 MWe power plants, has identified accident sequences requiring long-term operation of some systems after the initiating event. They have been named long-term sequences. Quantification of probabilities of such sequences cannot rely exclusively on equipment failure-on-demand data: it must also take into account operating failures, the probability of which increase with time. Specific studies have therefore been conducted for a number of plant systems actuated during these long-term sequences. This has required: - Definition of the most realistic equipment utilization strategies based on existing emergency procedures for 900 MWe French plants. - Evaluation of the potential to repair failed equipment, given accessibility, repair time, and specific radiation conditions for the given sequence. - Definition of the event bringing the long-term sequence to an end. - Establishment of an appropriate quantification method, capable of taking into account the evolution of assumptions concerning equipment utilization strategies or repair conditions over time. The accident sequence quantification method based on realistic scenarios has been used in the risk assessment of the initiating event loss of reactor coolant accident occurring at power and at shutdown. Compared with the results obtained from conventional methods, this method redistributes the relative weight of accident sequences and also demonstrates that the long term can be a significant contribution to the probability of core melt

  13. Evaluating long term forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lady, George M. [Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States)

    2010-03-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), and its predecessor organizations, has published projections of U.S. energy production, consumption, distribution and prices annually for over 30 years. A natural issue to raise in evaluating the projections is an assessment of their accuracy compared to eventual outcomes. A related issue is the determination of the sources of 'error' in the projections that are due to differences between the actual versus realized values of the associated assumptions. One way to do this would be to run the computer-based model from which the projections are derived at the time the projected values are realized, using actual rather than assumed values for model assumptions; and, compare these results to the original projections. For long term forecasts, this approach would require that the model's software and hardware configuration be archived and available for many years, possibly decades, into the future. Such archival creates many practical problems; and, in general, it is not being done. This paper reports on an alternative approach for evaluating the projections. In the alternative approach, the model is run many times for cases in which important assumptions are changed individually and in combinations. A database is assembled from the solutions and a regression analysis is conducted for each important projected variable with the associated assumptions chosen as exogenous variables. When actual data are eventually available, the regression results are then used to estimate the sources of the differences in the projections of the endogenous variables compared to their eventual outcomes. The results presented here are for residential and commercial sector natural gas and electricity consumption. (author)

  14. Long-Term Mechanical Behavior of Yucca Mountain Tuff and its Variability, Final Technical Report for Task ORD-FY04-021

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daemen, Jaak J.K.; Ma, Lumin; Zhao, Guohua

    2006-01-01

    The study of the long term mechanical behavior of Yucca Mountain tuffs is important for several reasons. Long term stability of excavations will affect accessibility (e.g. for inspection purposes), and retrievability. Long term instabilities may induce loading of drip shields and/or emplaced waste, thus affecting drip shield and/or waste package corrosion. Failure of excavations will affect airflow, may affect water flow, and may affect temperature distributions. The long term mechanical behavior of rocks remains an elusive topic, loaded with uncertainties. A variety of approaches have been used to improve the understanding of this complex subject, but it is doubtful that it has reached a stage where firm predictions can be considered feasible. The long term mechanical behavior of ''soft'' rocks, especially evaporites, and in particular rock salt, has been the subject of numerous investigations (e.g. Cristescu and Hunsche, 1998, Cristescu et al, 2002), and basic approaches towards engineering taking into account the long term behavior of such materials have long been well established (e.g. Dreyer, 1972, 1982). The same is certainly not true of ''hard'' rocks. While it long has been recognized that the long term strength of ''hard'' rocks almost certainly is significantly less than that measured during ''short'', i.e. standard (ASTM D 2938), ISRM suggested (Bieniawski et al, 1978) and conventionally used test procedures (e.g. Bieniawski, 1970, Wawersik, 1972, Hoek and Brown, 1980, p. 150), what limited approaches have been taken to develop strategies toward determining the long term mechanical behavior of ''hard'' rock remain in the early research and investigation stage, at best. One early model developed specifically for time dependent analysis of underground ''hard'' rock structures is the phenomenological model by Kaiser and Morgenstern (1981). Brady and Brown (1985, p. 93) state that over a wide range of strain rates, from 10 -8 to 10 2 /s the difference in

  15. Evaluation on the long-term durability and leachability of cemented waste form

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ki Hong; Lee, Jae Won; Ryue, Young Gerl [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    1998-08-01

    The long-term durability and leachability on the cemented waste form containing boric acids produced in domestic nuclear nuclear power plants were evaluated. Compressive strength of waste form after durability test such as thermal stability and water immersion cycle was higher than before test and consistently increased with increasing of test time in range of 83 of 286 kgf/cm{sup 2}. Long-term leachability was evaluated by standard test methods, leach affecting factors, and prediction of long-term leachability with result data of short-term leach test. In all leach tests, the release of Cs-137 was controlled by diffusion, whereas release of Co-60 was not controlled by diffusion. Leach rate of Cs-137 was relatively constant at standard leach test methods such as NAS 16.1, IAEA, ISO-6961, and MCC-1, but that of Co-60 increased with leachant-renewal frequencies. The leach rate of both Cs-137 and Co-60 increased as test temperature raised. The release of Co-137 decreased in simulated seawater as leachant, but increased with increasing leachant volume. The prediciton of long-term release of Cs-137 from large-scale waste form using the results from short-term leach test of small-scale waste form were within {+-} 5% of actual release. The leachability indexes of Cs-137 were between 6.5 and 7.5 and those of Co-60 were ranged from 11.6 to 13.3, increasing as cumulative leaching time increased. (author). 22 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  16. Pulsation properties of Mira long period variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cahn, J.H.

    1980-01-01

    A matter of great interest to variable star students concerns the mode of pulsation of Mira long period variables. In this report we first give observational evidence for the pulsation constant Q. We then compare the observations with calculations. Next, we review two interesting groups of papers dealing with hydrodynamic properties of long period variables. In the first, a fully dynamic nonlinear calculation maps out the Mira instability domain. In the second, special attention is paid to shock propagation beyond the photosphere which in large measure accounts for the complex spectra from this region. (orig./WL)

  17. Traumatic brain injury causes long-term behavioral changes related to region-specific increases of cerebral blood flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöttker, Bruno; Stöber, Franziska; Hummel, Regina; Angenstein, Frank; Radyushkin, Konstantin; Goldschmidt, Jürgen; Schäfer, Michael K E

    2017-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of disability and death and survivors often suffer from long-lasting motor impairment, cognitive deficits, anxiety disorders and epilepsy. Few experimental studies have investigated long-term sequelae after TBI and relations between behavioral changes and neural activity patterns remain elusive. We examined these issues in a murine model of TBI combining histology, behavioral analyses and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging of regional cerebral blood flow (CBF) as a proxy for neural activity. Adult C57Bl/6N mice were subjected to unilateral cortical impact injury and investigated at early (15-57 days after lesion, dal) and late (184-225 dal) post-traumatic time points. TBI caused pronounced tissue loss of the parietal cortex and subcortical structures and enduring neurological deficits. Marked perilesional astro- and microgliosis was found at 57 dal and declined at 225 dal. Motor and gait pattern deficits occurred at early time points after TBI and improved over the time. In contrast, impaired performance in the Morris water maze test and decreased anxiety-like behavior persisted together with an increased susceptibility to pentylenetetrazole-induced seizures suggesting alterations in neural activity patterns. Accordingly, SPECT imaging of CBF indicated asymmetric hemispheric baseline neural activity patterns. In the ipsilateral hemisphere, increased baseline neural activity was found in the amygdala. In the contralateral hemisphere, homotopic to the structural brain damage, the hippocampus and distinct cortex regions displayed increased baseline neural activity. Thus, regionally elevated CBF along with behavioral alterations indicate that increased neural activity is critically involved in the long-lasting consequences of TBI.

  18. Analysis on Japan's long-term energy outlook considering massive deployment of variable renewable energy under nuclear energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 considering massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and wind power generation under nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident which has increased the uncertainty of future additional construction of nuclear power plant in Japan. On these backgrounds, we develop integrated energy assessment model comprised of both econometric energy demand and supply model and optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewable in detailed time resolution at 10 minutes on consecutive 365 days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. Simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuation derived from high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology and the output suppression of PV and wind power. The results show as well that massive penetration of the renewables does not necessarily require the comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, on the scenario which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants which lifetime are over 40 years, required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double of PV installment potential in both building and abandoned farmland area. (author)

  19. Long-term studies of Markarian 421 from 2007 to 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schroeder, Sonja; Overkemping, Ann-Kristin [TU Dortmund, Dortmund (Germany); Manganaro, Marina [IAC La Laguna, Teneriffa (Spain); Tescaro, Diego [INFN, Padova (Italy); Collaboration: MAGIC-Collaboration

    2016-07-01

    The MAGIC experiment consists of two Imaging Air shower Cherenkov Telescopes to detect and study gamma-rays from galactic and extragalactic sources. Blazars are a special type of extragalactic sources hosting an Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) with a jet directed towards earth. The AGN Mrk 421 is one of the strongest and brightest known blazars suitable for very high-energy (VHE) observations. This talk gives an overview over long-term variability and correlation studies of the blazar Mrk 421. For this study a VHE dataset collected by MAGIC-I covering the extensive timespan from February 2007 to June 2009 was examined together with data of different wavelengths from other telescopes. These kind of studies could allow for an increase of knowledge about the possible emission processes inside Mrk 421.

  20. Semi-automatic long-term acoustic surveying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreassen, Tórur; Surlykke, Annemarie; Hallam, John

    2014-01-01

    Increasing concern about decline in biodiversity has created a demand for population surveys. Acoustic monitoring is an efficient non-invasive method, which may be deployed for surveys of animals as diverse as insects, birds, and bats. Long-term unmanned automatic monitoring may provide unique...... to determine bat behavior and correct for the bias toward loud bats inherent in acoustic surveying....

  1. Women with Chronic Physical Disabilities: Correlates of Their Long-Term Psychosocial Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangoor, Nira; Florian, Victor

    1994-01-01

    This study examined the effects of demographic factors, disability status, and individual internal resources to the long-term psychosocial adjustment of 88 married women with orthopedic, neurological, and internal chronic diseases. Results suggest that sense of coherence and socioeconomic status, rather than disability status variables, accounted…

  2. Long-term avoidance memory formation is associated with a transient increase in mushroom body synaptic complexes in leaf-cutting ants

    OpenAIRE

    Falibene, Agustina; Roces, Flavio; R?ssler, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Long-term behavioral changes related to learning and experience have been shown to be associated with structural remodeling in the brain. Leaf-cutting ants learn to avoid previously preferred plants after they have proved harmful for their symbiotic fungus, a process that involves long-term olfactory memory. We studied the dynamics of brain microarchitectural changes after long-term olfactory memory formation following avoidance learning in Acromyrmex ambiguus. After performing experiments to...

  3. [Cardiac surgery in octogenarian patients: evaluation of predictive factors of mortality, long-term outcome and quality of life].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana-Tejedor, Ana; Domínguez, Francisco J; Moreno Yangüela, Mar; Moreno, Raúl; López de Sá, Esteban; Mesa, José M; López-Sendón, José

    2008-10-04

    Increasing life expectancy in Western countries in the last decades has resulted in a significant gradual increasing number of octogenarians referred for cardiac surgery. There is a need for a critical evaluation of the long-term surgical outcome and quality of life in the elderly. The aim of this study is to identify risk factors of mortality in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery and to assess the long term survival and quality of life. Data were reviewed on 150 patients aged over 80 years--mean age (standard deviation): 82.7 (2.5) years--who underwent cardiac surgery at our institution in the last 26 years. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological variables included in the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE), in-hospital morbidity and mortality, long term survival and quality of life after cardiac surgery. The 30-day mortality rate was 30.1%, with a mean hospital stay of 16.5 days (13-27). Emergent procedure, reparation of postinfarction ventricular ruptures, New York Heart Association functional class IV, chronic renal failure and previous myocardial infarction were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Mean follow up was 72.2 (9.9) months with survival rates of 87.3% and 57% at 1 and 5 years, respectively. Late postoperative quality of life in our 53 long-term survivors was significantly better than prior to surgery. New York Heart Association functional class improved from 2.52 to 1.48. Most survivors (97.7%) were satisfied with present quality of life Cardiac surgery in octogenarians is associated with increased in-hospital mortality rate and longer hospital stay. Our findings support that cardiac surgery can be performed in a selected elderly population with good long-term survival and quality of life.

  4. Long-term collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Collectes à long terme

    2007-01-01

    The Committee of the Long Term Collections (CLT) asks for your attention for the following message from a young Peruvian scientist, following the earthquake which devastated part of her country a month ago.

  5. Prognostic Factors and Decision Tree for Long-term Survival in Metastatic Uveal Melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo, Daniel; Ochoa, María; Piulats, Josep Maria; Gutiérrez, Cristina; Arias, Luis; Català, Jaum; Grau, María; Peñafiel, Judith; Cobos, Estefanía; Garcia-Bru, Pere; Rubio, Marcos Javier; Padrón-Pérez, Noel; Dias, Bruno; Pera, Joan; Caminal, Josep Maria

    2017-12-04

    The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in metastatic uveal melanoma. Secondary aims were to identify the characteristics and prognostic factors associated with long-term survival and to develop a clinical decision tree. The medical records of 99 metastatic uveal melanoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as either short (≤ 12 months) or long-term survivors (> 12 months) based on a graphical interpretation of the survival curve after diagnosis of the first metastatic lesion. Ophthalmic and oncological characteristics were assessed in both groups. Of the 99 patients, 62 (62.6%) were classified as short-term survivors, and 37 (37.4%) as long-term survivors. The multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of long-term survival: age ≤ 65 years (p=0.012) and unaltered serum lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.018); additionally, the size (smaller vs. larger) of the largest liver metastasis showed a trend towards significance (p=0.063). Based on the variables significantly associated with long-term survival, we developed a decision tree to facilitate clinical decision-making. The findings of this study demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. The presence of certain clinical characteristics at diagnosis of distant disease is associated with long-term survival. A decision tree was developed to facilitate clinical decision-making and to counsel patients about the expected course of disease.

  6. Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

    2017-11-01

    Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

  7. Predictors of Bowel Function in Long-term Rectal Cancer Survivors with Anastomosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alavi, Mubarika; Wendel, Christopher S; Krouse, Robert S; Temple, Larissa; Hornbrook, Mark C; Bulkley, Joanna E; McMullen, Carmit K; Grant, Marcia; Herrinton, Lisa J

    2017-11-01

    Bowel function in long-term rectal cancer survivors with anastomosis has not been characterized adequately. We hypothesized that bowel function is associated with patient, disease, and treatment characteristics. The cohort study included Kaiser Permanente members who were long-term (≥5 years) rectal cancer survivors with anastomosis. Bowel function was scored using the self-administered, 14-item Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Bowel Function Index. Patient, cancer, and treatment variables were collected from the electronic medical chart. We used multiple regression to assess the relationship of patient- and treatment-related variables with the bowel function score. The study included 381 anastomosis patients surveyed an average 12 years after their rectal cancer surgeries. The total bowel function score averaged 53 (standard deviation, 9; range, 31-70, higher scores represent better function). Independent factors associated with worse total bowel function score included receipt of radiation therapy (yes vs. no: 5.3-unit decrement, p 6 cm: 3.2-unit decrement, p decrement, p decrement, p model explained 20% of the variation in the total bowel function score. Low tumor location, radiation therapy, temporary ostomy during initial treatment, and history of smoking were linked with decreased long-term bowel function following an anastomosis. These results should improve decision-making about surgical options.

  8. Long-term impact of sales promotion on brand image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danijela Mandić

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Sales promotion (SP is an inevitable tool in the marketing communications mix, especially in the FMCG markets, due to pressures such as retailers’ growing demands and increasing competition. This has proven to be an issue for many companies, especially those with a premium brand positioning and those concerned about the impact that SP might have on the long-term image of the company. Despite the fact that literature is replete with research on SP, it seems to be vastly generalized and mostly focused on price reductions. Thus, this paper aims to analyze and discuss the issue of the long-term impact that SP has on companies, especially on premium brands in the FMCG markets. It concludes that, when used properly and strategically, SP may have a positive long-term impact on brands.

  9. The changing flow of management information systems in long-term care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, D F

    1997-08-01

    Over the past three decades, the long-term care community has seen continual increases in the complexity and sophistication of management information systems. These changes have been brought about by the ever-increasing demands on owners and managers to provide accurate and timely data to both regulators and financial investors. The evolution of these systems has increased rapidly in recent years as the nation attempts to reinvent the funding mechanisms for long-term care.

  10. Long-term herbarium data reveal the decline of a temperate-water algae at its southern range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riera, Rodrigo; Sangil, Carlos; Sansón, Marta

    2015-11-01

    Distributional shifts of marine species have recently received attention as a result of increasing man-induced pressures on coastal ecosystems and global climate change (i.e. ocean warming). The southernmost geographical limit of the fucoid Fucus guiryi is the Canarian archipelago (Northeastern Atlantic Ocean) where this species is currently forming scarce and low-dense populations. Studies on long-term herbarium data revealed the decrease in size of morphological features (length and width of thallus and receptacles), and recent surveys confirmed the sharp decline, or even extinction, of F. guiryi from most sites previously documented. The increase of mean seawater surface temperature consistently matches the regression of populations of F. guiryi. Other environmental variables, such as wave exposure, cloud cover and chlorophyll-a concentration, contributed to explain local-scale spatial variability detected in Canarian populations.

  11. Variability in Hurricane Boundary Layer Characteristics Observed in a Long-Term Noaa Dropsonde Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Figure 6. Schematic of the NCAR GPS dropsonde identifying vital capabilities, components, and subsystems (From EOL 2014a...Archive in EOL sounding files (from Y13). ................21 Figure 9. The relative frequency of tropical cyclone categories sampled in the Long- Term...inscribed concentric circle corresponds to a radial grid increment of 200 km. Each blue point indicates the EOL estimate for dropsonde position after a

  12. [Falls and fractures among older adults living in long-term care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Duca, Giovâni Firpo; Antes, Danielle Ledur; Hallal, Pedro Curi

    2013-03-01

    To investigate the prevalence of falls and fractures over the past 12 months and associated factors among older adults living in long-term care. Census of all long-term care located in the city of Pelotas, Brazil, in 2008. Falls over the past 12 months were assessed using the following question: "Over the last 12 months, have you fallen?" For those who replied positively, another question was asked: "In any of these falls, have you fractured a bone?" Sex, age, schooling, disability relating to basic activities of daily living, type of financing of the long-term care and hospital admissions were the independent variables. We used chi-square tests for heterogeneity and linear trend in the unadjusted analysis, and Poisson regression with robust variance in the adjusted one. Within the 24 long-term care studied, we collected data for 466 individuals. The prevalence of falls in the past year was 38.9% (95%CI 34.5; 43.4). Among those who have fallen, 19.2% had fractures. Femur (hip) was the most frequent site fractured (43.4%), followed by wrist (10%). In the adjusted analysis, older age, disability for 1-5 basic activities of daily living, living in public institutions and hospital admissions in the last year were associated with higher risk of falls. The high prevalence of falls and fractures highlights the fragility of the individuals living in long-term care. Special attention should be paid to older adults and those with hospital admissions in the last year.

  13. Eliminating large-scale magnetospheric current perturbations from long-term geomagnetic observatory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pick, L.; Korte, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Magnetospheric currents generate the largest external contribution to the geomagnetic field observed on Earth. Of particular importance is the solar-driven effect of the ring current whose fluctuations overlap with internal field secular variation (SV). Recent core field models thus co-estimate this effect but their validity is limited to the last 15 years offering satellite data. We aim at eliminating magnetospheric modulation from the whole geomagnetic observatory record from 1840 onwards in order to obtain clean long-term SV that will enhance core flow and geodynamo studies.The ring current effect takes form of a southward directed external dipole field aligned with the geomagnetic main field axis. Commonly the Dst index (Sugiura, 1964) is used to parametrize temporal variations of this dipole term. Because of baseline instabilities, the alternative RC index was derived from hourly means of 21 stations spanning 1997-2013 (Olsen et al., 2014). We follow their methodology based on annual means from a reduced station set spanning 1960-2010. The absolute level of the variation so determined is "hidden" in the static lithospheric offsets taken as quiet-time means. We tackle this issue by subtracting crustal biases independently calculated for each observatory from an inversion of combined Swarm satellite and observatory data.Our index reproduces the original annual RC index variability with a reasonable offset of -10 nT in the reference time window 2000-2010. Prior to that it depicts a long-term trend consistent with the external dipole term from COV-OBS (Gillet et al., 2013), being the only long-term field model available for comparison. Sharper variations that are better correlated with the Ap index than the COV-OBS solution lend support to the usefulness of our initial modeling approach. Following a detailed sensitivity study of station choice future work will focus on increasing the resolution from annual to hourly means.

  14. Emiliania huxleyi increases calcification but not expression of calcification-related genes in long-term exposure to elevated temperature and pCO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benner, Ina; Diner, Rachel E; Lefebvre, Stephane C; Li, Dian; Komada, Tomoko; Carpenter, Edward J; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2013-01-01

    Increased atmospheric pCO2 is expected to render future oceans warmer and more acidic than they are at present. Calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores that fix and export carbon into the deep sea provide feedbacks to increasing atmospheric pCO2. Acclimation experiments suggest negative effects of warming and acidification on coccolithophore calcification, but the ability of these organisms to adapt to future environmental conditions is not well understood. Here, we tested the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature on the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi over more than 700 generations. Cells increased inorganic carbon content and calcification rate under warm and acidified conditions compared with ambient conditions, whereas organic carbon content and primary production did not show any change. In contrast to findings from short-term experiments, our results suggest that long-term acclimation or adaptation could change, or even reverse, negative calcification responses in E. huxleyi and its feedback to the global carbon cycle. Genome-wide profiles of gene expression using RNA-seq revealed that genes thought to be essential for calcification are not those that are most strongly differentially expressed under long-term exposure to future ocean conditions. Rather, differentially expressed genes observed here represent new targets to study responses to ocean acidification and warming.

  15. Long-term studies of the natural history of asthma in childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, Hans; Bønnelykke, Klaus

    2010-01-01

    Segmentation of children with asthma and other wheezy disorders remains the main research challenge today, as it was when described 2 centuries ago. Early childhood wheezy disorders follow different temporal trajectories, probably representing different underlying mechanisms (endophenotypes...... secondary prevention through the use of inhaled corticosteroids can effectively halt the long-term disease progression in childhood. In conclusion, the natural history of asthma and the associated airway changes is still poorly understood, and we have not managed to translate findings from long-term studies......). Prospective identification of endophenotypes allowing accurate prediction of the clinical course is currently not possible. The variability of the clinical course remains an enigma and difficult to predict. Three of 4 school-aged children with asthma have outgrown disease by midadulthood. The risk...

  16. Long-term care financing: lessons from France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doty, Pamela; Nadash, Pamela; Racco, Nathalie

    2015-06-01

    adjusted and amounts are low. Nevertheless, expenditures have exceeded projections, burdening local governments. Private supplemental insurance covers 11% of French, mostly middle-income adults (versus 3% of Americans 18 and older). Whether policyholders will maintain employer-sponsored coverage after retirement is not known. The government's interest in pursuing an explicit public/private partnership has waned under President François Hollande, a centrist socialist, in contrast to the previous center-right leader, President Nicolas Sarkozy, thereby reducing the prospects of a coordinated public/private strategy. American private insurers are showing increasing interest in long-term care financing approaches that combine public and private elements. The French example shows how a simple, cheap, cash-based product can gain traction among middle-income individuals when offered by employers and combined with a steeply income-adjusted universal public program. The adequacy of such coverage, however, is a concern. © 2015 Milbank Memorial Fund.

  17. Sexuality and Physical Intimacy in Long Term Care: Sexuality, long term care, capacity assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Lichtenberg, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Sexuality and sexual needs in older adults remains a neglected area of clinical intervention, particularly so in long term care settings. Because older adults in medical rehabilitation and long term care beds present with significant frailties, and often significant neurocognitive disorders it makes it difficult for occupational therapists and other staff to evaluate the capacity of an older adult resident to participate in sexual relationships. The current paper reviews the current literatur...

  18. Long-term effects of acoustic reafference training (ART).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzera, Alexandra; Hohmann, Tanja; Streese, Lukas; Habbig, Anja; Raab, Markus

    2017-11-01

    In sport visual feedback is often used to enhance performance, mostly neglecting the auditory modality. However, athletes produce natural sounds when they move (acoustic reafferences) which they perceive and use to control their movements. We examined the short- and long-term effects of a training intervention on a complex movement by using acoustic reafferences. Natural step sounds produced during hurdling were recorded and played back to the participants immediately before each trial, with an increase (fast group), decrease (slow group), or no manipulation (control group) in the tempo. All groups increased their hurdling performance regarding overall running time, with the slow group showing the best performance development. After a 10-week retention, the fast and slow group further increased performance, whereas the control group declined. The repeated experience with acoustic information associated with the rhythmic pattern of hurdling may have helped developing a cognitive representation of that movement, especially regarding long-term effects.

  19. Numerical simulation of gender differences in a long-term microgravity exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Poch, Antoni

    The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate gender differences when individuals are exposed to long-term microgravity. Risk probability of a health impairment which may put in jeopardy a long-term mission is also evaluated. Computer simulations are becoming a promising research line of work, as physiological models become more and more sophisticated and reliable. Technological advances in state-of-the-art hardware technology and software allow nowadays for better and more accurate simulations of complex phenomena, such as the response of the human cardiovascular system to long-term exposure to microgravity. Experimental data for long-term missions are difficult to achieve and reproduce, therefore the predictions of computer simulations are of a major importance in this field. Our approach is based on a previous model developed and implemented in our laboratory (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects). The software simulates the behaviour of the cardiovascular system and different human organs, has a modular architecture, and allows to introduce perturbations such as physical exercise or countermeasures. The implementation is based on a complex electricallike model of this control system, using inexpensive software development frameworks, and has been tested and validated with the available experimental data. Gender differences have been implemented for this specific work, as an adjustment of a number of parameters that are included in the model. Women versus men physiological differences have been therefore taken into account, based upon estimations from the physiology bibliography. A number of simulations have been carried out for long-term exposure to microgravity. Gravity varying from Earth-based to zero, and time exposure are the two main variables involved in the construction of results, including responses to patterns of physical aerobical exercise, and also thermal stress simulating an extra-vehicular activity. Results show

  20. Differences in health status between long-term and short-term benzodiazepine users.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zandstra, S.M.; Furer, J.W.; Lisdonk, E.H. van de; Bor, J.H.J.; Zitman, F.G.; Weel, C. van

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite generally accepted advice to keep treatment short, benzodiazepines are often prescibed for more than six months. Prevention of long-term benzodiazepine use could be facilitated by the utilisation of risk indicators for long-term use. However, the characteristics of long-term

  1. Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

    2016-02-01

    Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

  2. Hydrological long-term dry and wet periods in the Xijiang River basin, South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Fischer

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, hydrological long-term dry and wet periods are analyzed for the Xijiang River basin in South China. Daily precipitation data of 118 stations and data on daily discharge at Gaoyao hydrological station at the mouth of the Xijiang River for the period 1961–2007 are used. At a 24-month timescale, the standardized precipitation index (SPI-24 for the six sub-basins of the Xijiang River and the standardized discharge index (SDI-24 for Gaoyao station are applied. The monthly values of the SPI-24 averaged for the Xijiang River basin correlate highly with the monthly values of the SDI-24. Distinct long-term dry and wet sequences can be detected.

    The principal component analysis is applied and shows spatial disparities in dry and wet periods for the six sub-basins. The correlation between the SPI-24 of the six sub-basins and the first principal component score shows that 67% of the variability within the sub-basins can be explained by dry and wet periods in the east of the Xijiang River basin. The spatial dipole conditions (second and third principal component explain spatiotemporal disparities in the variability of dry and wet periods. All sub-basins contribute to hydrological dry periods, while mainly the northeastern sub-basins cause wet periods in the Xijiang River. We can also conclude that long-term dry events are larger in spatial extent and cover all sub-basins while long-term wet events are regional phenomena.

    A spectral analysis is applied for the SPI-24 and the SDI-24. The results show significant peaks in periodicities of 11–14.7 yr, 2.8 yr, 3.4–3.7 yr, and 6.3–7.3 yr. The same periodic cycles can be found in the SPI-24 of the six sub-basins but with some variability in the mean magnitude. A wavelet analysis shows that significant periodicities have been stable over time since the 1980s. Extrapolations of the reconstructed SPI-24 and SDI-24 represent the continuation of observed significant periodicities

  3. Long-term intake of a high protein diet increases liver triacylglycerol deposition pathways and hepatic signs of injury in rats

    KAUST Repository

    Diaz Rua, Ruben

    2017-04-19

    Intake of high-protein (HP) diets has increased over the last years, mainly due to their popularity for body weight control. Liver is the main organ handling ingested macronutrients and it is associated with the beginning of different pathologies. We aimed to deepen our knowledge on molecular pathways affected by long-term intake of an HP diet. We performed a transcriptome analysis on liver of rats chronically fed with a casein-rich HP diet and analyzed molecular parameters related to liver injury. Chronic increase in the dietary protein/carbohydrate ratio up-regulated processes related with amino acid uptake/metabolism and lipid synthesis, promoting a molecular environment indicative of hepatic triacylglycerol (TG) deposition. Moreover, changes in expression of genes involved in acid–base maintenance and oxidative stress indicate alterations in the pH balance due to the high acid load of the diet, which has been linked to liver/health damage. Up-regulation of immune-related genes was also observed. In concordance with changes at gene expression level, we observed increased liver TG content and increased serum markers of hepatic injury/inflammation (aspartate transaminase, C-reactive protein and TNF-alpha). Moreover, the HP diet strongly increased hepatic mRNA and protein levels of HSP90, a marker of liver injury. Thus, we show for the first time that long-term consumption of an HP diet, resulting in a high acid load, results in a hepatic transcriptome signature reflecting increased TG deposition and increased signs of health risk (increased inflammation, alterations in the acid–base equilibrium and oxidative stress). Persistence of this altered metabolic status could have unhealthy consequences.

  4. Long-term intake of a high protein diet increases liver triacylglycerol deposition pathways and hepatic signs of injury in rats

    KAUST Repository

    Diaz Rua, Ruben; Keijer, Jaap; Palou, Andreu; van Schothorst, Evert M.; Oliver, Paula

    2017-01-01

    Intake of high-protein (HP) diets has increased over the last years, mainly due to their popularity for body weight control. Liver is the main organ handling ingested macronutrients and it is associated with the beginning of different pathologies. We aimed to deepen our knowledge on molecular pathways affected by long-term intake of an HP diet. We performed a transcriptome analysis on liver of rats chronically fed with a casein-rich HP diet and analyzed molecular parameters related to liver injury. Chronic increase in the dietary protein/carbohydrate ratio up-regulated processes related with amino acid uptake/metabolism and lipid synthesis, promoting a molecular environment indicative of hepatic triacylglycerol (TG) deposition. Moreover, changes in expression of genes involved in acid–base maintenance and oxidative stress indicate alterations in the pH balance due to the high acid load of the diet, which has been linked to liver/health damage. Up-regulation of immune-related genes was also observed. In concordance with changes at gene expression level, we observed increased liver TG content and increased serum markers of hepatic injury/inflammation (aspartate transaminase, C-reactive protein and TNF-alpha). Moreover, the HP diet strongly increased hepatic mRNA and protein levels of HSP90, a marker of liver injury. Thus, we show for the first time that long-term consumption of an HP diet, resulting in a high acid load, results in a hepatic transcriptome signature reflecting increased TG deposition and increased signs of health risk (increased inflammation, alterations in the acid–base equilibrium and oxidative stress). Persistence of this altered metabolic status could have unhealthy consequences.

  5. Long-term intake of a high-protein diet increases liver triacylglycerol deposition pathways and hepatic signs of injury in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz-Rúa, Rubén; Keijer, Jaap; Palou, Andreu; van Schothorst, Evert M; Oliver, Paula

    2017-08-01

    Intake of high-protein (HP) diets has increased over the last years, mainly due to their popularity for body weight control. Liver is the main organ handling ingested macronutrients and it is associated with the beginning of different pathologies. We aimed to deepen our knowledge on molecular pathways affected by long-term intake of an HP diet. We performed a transcriptome analysis on liver of rats chronically fed with a casein-rich HP diet and analyzed molecular parameters related to liver injury. Chronic increase in the dietary protein/carbohydrate ratio up-regulated processes related with amino acid uptake/metabolism and lipid synthesis, promoting a molecular environment indicative of hepatic triacylglycerol (TG) deposition. Moreover, changes in expression of genes involved in acid-base maintenance and oxidative stress indicate alterations in the pH balance due to the high acid load of the diet, which has been linked to liver/health damage. Up-regulation of immune-related genes was also observed. In concordance with changes at gene expression level, we observed increased liver TG content and increased serum markers of hepatic injury/inflammation (aspartate transaminase, C-reactive protein and TNF-alpha). Moreover, the HP diet strongly increased hepatic mRNA and protein levels of HSP90, a marker of liver injury. Thus, we show for the first time that long-term consumption of an HP diet, resulting in a high acid load, results in a hepatic transcriptome signature reflecting increased TG deposition and increased signs of health risk (increased inflammation, alterations in the acid-base equilibrium and oxidative stress). Persistence of this altered metabolic status could have unhealthy consequences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews a long-term trend of worldwide fossil fuel prices in the future by introducing a new method to forecast oil, natural gas and coal prices. The first section of this study analyses the global fossil fuel market and the historical trend of real and nominal fossil fuel prices from 1950 to 2008. Historical fossil fuel price analysis shows that coal prices are decreasing, while natural gas prices are increasing. The second section reviews previously available price modelling techniques and proposes a new comprehensive version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model. The third section uses the new model to forecast fossil fuel prices in nominal and real terms from 2009 to 2018. The new model follows the extrapolation of the historical sinusoidal trend of nominal and real fossil fuel prices. The historical trends show an increase in nominal/real oil and natural gas prices plus nominal coal prices, as well as a decrease in real coal prices. Furthermore, the new model forecasts that oil, natural gas and coal will stay in jump for the next couple of years and after that they will revert back to the long-term trend until 2018. (author)

  7. Short-term and long-term risk factors in gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlato, Giuseppe; Marrelli, Daniele; Accordini, Simone; Bencivenga, Maria; Di Leo, Alberto; Marchet, Alberto; Petrioli, Roberto; Zoppini, Giacomo; Muggeo, Michele; Roviello, Franco; de Manzoni, Giovanni

    2015-06-07

    curative gastrectomy with D2/D3 lymphadenectomy. Survival curves in the two different histotypes (intestinal and mixed/diffuse) were superimposed in the first three years of follow-up and diverged thereafter. Likewise, survival curves as a function of site (fundus vs body/antrum) started to diverge after the first year. On the contrary, survival curves differed among age classes from the very beginning, due to different post-operative mortality, which increased from 0.5% in patients aged 65-74 years to 9.9% in patients aged 75-91 years; this discrepancy later disappeared. Accordingly, the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model was violated, as regards age, site and histology. To cope with this problem, multivariable survival analysis was performed by separately considering either the first two years of follow-up or subsequent years. Histology and site were significant predictors only after two years, while T and N, although significant both in the short-term and in the long-term, became less important in the second part of follow-up. Increasing age was associated with higher mortality in the first two years, but not thereafter. Splitting survival time when performing survival analysis allows to distinguish between short-term and long-term risk factors. Alternative statistical solutions could be to exclude post-operative mortality, to introduce in the model time-dependent covariates or to stratify on variables violating proportionality assumption.

  8. A study about the long-term stability of sedimentary rock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshino, Naoto; Miyanomae, Shun-ichi; Inoue, Hiroyuki; Nashimoto, Yutaka

    2005-02-01

    In this paper, following two issues were examined and estimated, (1) the influence of near field condition factor to the dynamical behavior of sedimentary soft rock, (2) the long term estimation of the dynamical behavior considering the condition of Horonobe area. As the study about the influence of near field condition factor to the dynamical behavior of sedimentary soft rock, the thermal factor was focused on and the laboratory tests using test pieces which were sampled in Horonobe area were carried out under the water temperature were 20 degrees and 80 degrees. As a result, the time dependence parameter in variable-compliance-type constitutive-equation could be obtained. And comparison between creep property under 20 degrees and 80 degrees was conducted. In addition, the general properties of sedimentary soft rock under several conditions were identified by the survey of the literature. And the way how to confirm the dynamical properties of sedimentary soft rock with in-situ test were presented. For the study on the short-term and long-term stability of rock surrounding buffer materials, numerical simulations were carried out assuming several conditions. The direction of disposal tunnels and the ratio of rock strength by initial stress were estimated to be the main factor affecting the short-term stability of rock. Time dependency of rock and the stiffness of buffer material were estimated to be the main factor affecting the long-term stability of rock. (author)

  9. Shifting the Paradigm for Long Term Monitoring at Legacy Sites to Improve Performance while Reducing Costs - 13422

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eddy-Dilek, Carol A; Looney, Brian B.; Gaughan, Thomas; Kmetz, Thomas; Seaman, John

    2013-01-01

    A major issue facing many government and private industry sites that were previously contaminated with radioactive and chemical wastes is that often the sites cannot be cleaned up enough to permit unrestricted human access. These sites will require long-term management, in some cases indefinitely, leaving site owners with the challenge of protecting human health and environmental quality in a cost effective manner. Long-term monitoring of groundwater contamination is one of the largest projected costs in the life cycle of environmental management at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the larger DOE complex, and many large federal and private sites. Currently, most monitoring strategies are focused on laboratory measurements of contaminants measured in groundwater samples collected from wells. This approach is expensive, and provides limited and lagging information about the effectiveness of cleanup activities and the behavior of the residual contamination. Over the last twenty years, DOE and other federal agencies have made significant investments in the development of various types of sensors and strategies that would allow for remote analysis of contaminants in groundwater, but these approaches do not promise significant reductions in risk or cost. Scientists at SRS have developed a new paradigm to simultaneously improve the performance of long term monitoring systems while lowering the overall cost of monitoring. This alternative approach incorporates traditional point measurements of contaminant concentration with measurements of controlling variables including boundary conditions, master variables, and traditional plume/contaminant variables. Boundary conditions are the overall driving forces that control plume movement and therefore provide leading indication to changes in plume stability. These variables include metrics associated with meteorology, hydrology, hydrogeology, and land use. Master variables are the key variables that control the chemistry of the

  10. Shifting the Paradigm for Long Term Monitoring at Legacy Sites to Improve Performance while Reducing Costs - 13422

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eddy-Dilek, Carol A; Looney, Brian B. [Savannah River National Laboratory (United States); Gaughan, Thomas; Kmetz, Thomas [Savannah River Nuclear Solutions, LLC (United States); Seaman, John [Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A major issue facing many government and private industry sites that were previously contaminated with radioactive and chemical wastes is that often the sites cannot be cleaned up enough to permit unrestricted human access. These sites will require long-term management, in some cases indefinitely, leaving site owners with the challenge of protecting human health and environmental quality in a cost effective manner. Long-term monitoring of groundwater contamination is one of the largest projected costs in the life cycle of environmental management at the Savannah River Site (SRS), the larger DOE complex, and many large federal and private sites. Currently, most monitoring strategies are focused on laboratory measurements of contaminants measured in groundwater samples collected from wells. This approach is expensive, and provides limited and lagging information about the effectiveness of cleanup activities and the behavior of the residual contamination. Over the last twenty years, DOE and other federal agencies have made significant investments in the development of various types of sensors and strategies that would allow for remote analysis of contaminants in groundwater, but these approaches do not promise significant reductions in risk or cost. Scientists at SRS have developed a new paradigm to simultaneously improve the performance of long term monitoring systems while lowering the overall cost of monitoring. This alternative approach incorporates traditional point measurements of contaminant concentration with measurements of controlling variables including boundary conditions, master variables, and traditional plume/contaminant variables. Boundary conditions are the overall driving forces that control plume movement and therefore provide leading indication to changes in plume stability. These variables include metrics associated with meteorology, hydrology, hydrogeology, and land use. Master variables are the key variables that control the chemistry of the

  11. Long-term stabilization considerations for decommissioned and reclaimed uranium sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abt, S.R.; Nelson, J.D.; Johnson, T.L.

    1988-01-01

    The long-term stabilization of decommissioned uranium mill sites and of reclaimed uranium mill tailings sites encompass a broad spectrum of design capabilities. This paper presents a few of the quantitative methodologies recently developed or refined to evaluate physical factors (i.e. precipitation, fluvial geomorphology, stable slope, slope stabilization with riprap and riprap selection) that influence long-term stabilization of uranium mill and mill tailings sites. It is acknowledged that the degree of refinement of these methodologies are in their infancy and that extensive research and development are warranted to increase the level of assurance. However, these methodologies provide an initial guideline for evaluating long-term stabilization that has not been previously existed. The purpose of this paper is to present a review of currently available state-of-the-art engineering techniques and methodologies for the evaluation of reclamation plans designed to provide long-term stability against potential failure modes. In some cases, evaluative techniques have been developed for long-term stabilization where methodologies have not previously existed. Each methodology to be presented represents a starting point upon which additional research and/or development may be warranted

  12. Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S. J.; Haberl, H.

    2012-04-01

    Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales Simron Jit Singh and Helmut Haberl Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Austria Understanding trajectories of change in coupled socio-ecological (or human-environment) systems requires monitoring and analysis at several spatial and temporal scales. Long-term ecosystem research (LTER) is a strand of research coupled with observation systems and infrastructures (LTER sites) aimed at understanding how global change affects ecosystems around the world. In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that sustainability concerns require extending this approach to long-term socio-ecological research, i.e. a more integrated perspective that focuses on interaction processes between society and ecosystems over longer time periods. Thus, Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research, abbreviated LTSER, aims at observing, analyzing, understanding and modelling of changes in coupled socio-ecological systems over long periods of time. Indeed, the magnitude of the problems we now face is an outcome of a much longer process, accelerated by industrialisation since the nineteenth century. The paper will provide an overview of a book (in press) on LTSER with particular emphasis on 'socio-ecological transitions' in terms of material, energy and land use dynamics across temporal and spatial scales.

  13. Postoperative CPAP use impacts long-term weight loss following bariatric surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collen, Jacob; Lettieri, Christopher J; Eliasson, Arn

    2015-03-15

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is common among bariatric surgery candidates. After surgical weight loss, OSA frequently persists and untreated OSA can lead to weight gain. Long-term continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) adherence is unclear and poor adherence may worsen weight loss outcomes. We sought to determine the impact of CPAP use on long-term weight-loss outcomes in a cohort of bariatric patients. Long-term observational study of bariatric surgery patients with OSA. Patients were evaluated with polysomnography preoperatively and one-year postoperatively. The cohort was again evaluated a mean of 7.2 years later to determine the relationship between long-term CPAP use and subsequent regain of weight. Twenty-four consecutive patients (aged 48.5 ± 9.4 years at time of surgery; 73% female) were included in the initial assessment, and long-term outcome data were available on 22 subjects. Persistent OSA was documented in 21 of 22 subjects (95%) one year postoperatively. Final evaluation occurred 7.2 ± 2.3 years following surgery. Weight (213.3 ± 39.1 to 235.3 ± 47.1 lb, p = 0.10) and BMI (32.5 ± 5.4 to 37.3 ± 8.2 kg/m(2), p = 0.03) increased in most (n = 19, 86.4%) from postoperative to final evaluation. CPAP use declined from 83.3% (preoperatively) to 38.1% (one year) and to 23.8% (final evaluation). BMI increased among those not using CPAP at long-term follow-up compared to those with continued CPAP use (6.8% v -1.8%, p = 0.05). In our cohort of bariatric patients with OSA, long-term adherence to CPAP therapy was poor, and non-adherence was associated with weight gain. Ongoing follow-up of OSA in this population may help to preserve initial achievements after surgical weight loss. © 2014 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

  14. Very long-term sequelae of craniopharyngioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnen, Mark; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E; Michiels, Erna M C; van Veelen-Vincent, Marie-Lise C; Dallenga, Alof H G; van den Berge, J Herbert; van Rij, Carolien M; van der Lely, Aart-Jan; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

    2017-06-01

    Studies investigating long-term health conditions in patients with craniopharyngioma are limited by short follow-up durations and generally do not compare long-term health effects according to initial craniopharyngioma treatment approach. In addition, studies comparing long-term health conditions between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma report conflicting results. The objective of this study was to analyse a full spectrum of long-term health effects in patients with craniopharyngioma according to initial treatment approach and age group at craniopharyngioma presentation. Cross-sectional study based on retrospective data. We studied a single-centre cohort of 128 patients with craniopharyngioma treated from 1980 onwards (63 patients with childhood-onset disease). Median follow-up since craniopharyngioma presentation was 13 years (interquartile range: 5-23 years). Initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches included gross total resection ( n  = 25), subtotal resection without radiotherapy ( n  = 44), subtotal resection with radiotherapy ( n  = 25), cyst aspiration without radiotherapy ( n  = 8), and 90 Yttrium brachytherapy ( n  = 21). Pituitary hormone deficiencies (98%), visual disturbances (75%) and obesity (56%) were the most common long-term health conditions observed. Different initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches resulted in similar long-term health effects. Patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma experienced significantly more growth hormone deficiency, diabetes insipidus, panhypopituitarism, morbid obesity, epilepsy and psychiatric conditions compared with patients with adult-onset disease. Recurrence-/progression-free survival was significantly lower after initial craniopharyngioma treatment with cyst aspiration compared with other therapeutic approaches. Survival was similar between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma. Long-term health conditions were comparable after

  15. Influenza in long-term care facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansbury, Louise E; Brown, Caroline S; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S

    2017-09-01

    Long-term care facility environments and the vulnerability of their residents provide a setting conducive to the rapid spread of influenza virus and other respiratory pathogens. Infections may be introduced by staff, visitors or new or transferred residents, and outbreaks of influenza in such settings can have devastating consequences for individuals, as well as placing extra strain on health services. As the population ages over the coming decades, increased provision of such facilities seems likely. The need for robust infection prevention and control practices will therefore remain of paramount importance if the impact of outbreaks is to be minimised. In this review, we discuss the nature of the problem of influenza in long-term care facilities, and approaches to preventive and control measures, including vaccination of residents and staff, and the use of antiviral drugs for treatment and prophylaxis, based on currently available evidence. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Long-term experiments to better understand soil-human interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormann, B. T.; Homann, P. S.

    2011-12-01

    Interactions between soils and people may be transforming global conditions, but the interactions are poorly understood. Changes in soils have proven difficult to quantify, especially in complex ecosystems manifesting large spatiotemporal variability. Long-term ecosystem experiments that evaluate soil change and demonstrate alternative choices are important to understanding changes, discovering new controls and drivers, and influencing decisions. Inspired by agriculture studies, like Rothamsted, the US Forest Service established in 1990 a network of operational-scale experiments across the Pacific Northwest to evaluate long-term effects of different forest management and disturbance regimes. With a strong experimental design, these experiments are now helping to better understand the long-term effects of managing tree harvesting (clearcutting and thinning), woody debris, and tree and understory species composition, and-serendipitously-the effects of fire. Initial results from the Southern Oregon experimental site indicate surprisingly rapid soil changes in some regimes but not others. We've also learned that rapid change presents challenges to repeat sampling. We present our sample-archive and comparable-layer approaches that seek to accommodate changes in surface elevation, aggregation and disaggregation, and mineral-soil exports. Thinning mature forest stands (80-100 yrs old) did not significantly change soil C in 11-yrs. A small upper-layer C increase was observed after thinning, but it was similar to the control. Significant increases in upper-layer soil N were observed with most treatments, but all increases were similar to the control. Leaving woody debris had little effect. The most remarkable change occurred when mature stands were clearcut and Douglas-firs were planted and tended. Associated with rapid growth of Douglas-fir, an average of 8 Mg C ha-1 was lost from weathered soil 4-18 cm deep. This contrasts with clearcuts where early-seral hardwoods and

  17. Long-term prisoner in prison isolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karolina Grudzińska

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Long-term prisoner belongs to a particular category of people who are imprisoned in prisons. On the one hand in this group are often heavily demoralized people who committed the most serious crimes, on the other hand it is a group of prisoners, who should be well thought out and programmed the impact of rehabilitation. The situation of man trapped for years poses in a complicated situation not only the prisoners, but also the entire prison staff. They have to take care of the fact that the prison isolation did not cause the state in which convicts form itself in learned helplessness and lack of skills for self-planning and decision-making. In addition, planning the rehabilitation impact of long-term prisoners should not be forgotten that these prisoners in the short or the long term will return to the libertarian environment therefore, should prevent any negative effects of long-term imprisonment. This article presents the main issues related to the execution of imprisonment against long-term prisoners. It is an attempt to systematize the knowledge of this category of people living in prison isolation.

  18. The effect of retraining of nurses on cardiopulmonary resuscitationsuccess rate and short-term and long-term survival in patients revived

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahi M

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objective: Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR is performed in order to restore the functioning of two most important body organs the heart and brain. The present study was performed to investigate the effect of retraining of nurses on CPR success rate and short-term and long-term CPR survival. Materials and Method: The study population of the present quasi-experimental study consisted of all nurses of Taleghani Hospital affiliated with Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran, in 2011. The study subjects (n = 400 were selected using convenience and purposive sampling method. The patient survival rate during the first 24 hours (short-term survival and discharge from the hospital (long-term survival after CPR were reported. Then, the study subjects, in groups of 20, participated in CPR training courses. Short-term (24 hours and long-term (discharge from hospital in good mental status survival subsequent to CPR were reevaluated and compared with pre-training results. Data were analyzed using SPSS software version 20, and t-test and chi-square test. Results: Retraining promoted CPR success rates. This increase in the short-term success rate was not significant, but the increase in long-term success rate was statistically significant (P = 0.007. Conclusion: Periodic retraining of nurses may improve CPR success rate particularly long-term survival or discharge from hospital. Therefore, further studies on long-term success of CPR considering confounding factors are recommended

  19. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved...

  20. Competitive short-term and long-term memory processes in spatial habituation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, David J; Bannerman, David M

    2011-04-01

    Exposure to a spatial location leads to habituation of exploration such that, in a novelty preference test, rodents subsequently prefer exploring a novel location to the familiar location. According to Wagner's (1981) theory of memory, short-term and long-term habituation are caused by separate and sometimes opponent processes. In the present study, this dual-process account of memory was tested. Mice received a series of exposure training trials to a location before receiving a novelty preference test. The novelty preference was greater when tested after a short, rather than a long, interval. In contrast, the novelty preference was weaker when exposure training trials were separated by a short, rather than a long interval. Furthermore, it was found that long-term habituation was determined by the independent effects of the amount of exposure training and the number of exposure training trials when factors such as the intertrial interval and the cumulative intertrial interval were controlled. A final experiment demonstrated that a long-term reduction of exploration could be caused by a negative priming effect due to associations formed during exploration. These results provide evidence against a single-process account of habituation and suggest that spatial habituation is determined by both short-term, recency-based memory and long-term, incrementally strengthened memory.

  1. Increased metabolic turnover rate and transcapillary escape rate of albumin in long-term juvenile diabetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parving, H H; Rossing, N; Sander, E

    1975-01-01

    The metabolic turnover rate and transcapillary escape rate of albumin were studied with 131I-labelled human albumin in nine patients with long-term diabetes mellitus. Retinopathy was present in all patients and nephropathy in four. Plasma albumin concentration and plasma volume were reduced (P...

  2. Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

  3. Long-term functional sequelae of sacrococcygeal teratoma : a national study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derikx, Joep P. M.; De Backer, Antoine; van de Schoot, Leon; Aronson, Daniel C.; de Langen, Zacharias J.; van den Hoonaard, Thelma L.; Bax, Nicolaas M. A.; van der Staak, Frans; van Heurn, L. W. Ernest

    Background: Long-term functional sequelac after resection of sacrococcygeal teratoma (SCT) are relatively common. This study determines the incidence of these sequelae associated clinical variables and its impact on quality of life (QoL). Patients and methods: Patients with SCT treated from 1980 to

  4. Saving and Re-building Lives: Determinants of Short-term and Long-term Disaster Relief

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geethanjali SELVARETNAM

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We analyse both theoretically and empirically, the factors that influence the amount of humanitarian aid received by countries which are struck by natural disasters, particularly distinguishing between immediate disaster relief and long term humanitarian aid. The theoretical model is able to make predictions as well as explain some of the peculiarities in the empirical results. We show that both short and long term humanitarian aid increases with number of people killed, financial loss and level of corruption, while GDP per capita had no effect. More populated countries receive more humanitarian aid. Earthquake, tsunami and drought attract more aid.

  5. Short-term versus long-term approaches to the development of tourism-related policies

    OpenAIRE

    Dredge, Dianne

    2015-01-01

    Tourism policy development is an increasingly complex activity involving multiple public sector agencies, industry and community stakeholders and non-government organisations at different scales. This discussion paper examines the implications for tourism of governments adopting short- term versus long-term approaches to the development of tourism related policies and identifies policy considerations to maximize the growth potential of tourism. The key issue is to understand how governments c...

  6. Spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of ocean acidification in the California Current System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hauri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to seasonal upwelling, the upper ocean waters of the California Current System (CCS have a naturally low pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag, making this region particularly prone to the effects of ocean acidification. Here, we use the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS to conduct preindustrial and transient (1995–2050 simulations of ocean biogeochemistry in the CCS. The transient simulations were forced with increasing atmospheric pCO2 and increasing oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations at the lateral boundaries, as projected by the NCAR CSM 1.4 model for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Our results show a large seasonal variability in pH (range of ~ 0.14 and Ωarag (~ 0.2 for the nearshore areas (50 km from shore. This variability is created by the interplay of physical and biogeochemical processes. Despite this large variability, we find that present-day pH and Ωarag have already moved outside of their simulated preindustrial variability envelopes (defined by ±1 temporal standard deviation due to the rapidly increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The nearshore surface pH of the northern and central CCS are simulated to move outside of their present-day variability envelopes by the mid-2040s and late 2030s, respectively. This transition may occur even earlier for nearshore surface Ωarag, which is projected to depart from its present-day variability envelope by the early- to mid-2030s. The aragonite saturation horizon of the central CCS is projected to shoal into the upper 75 m within the next 25 yr, causing near-permanent undersaturation in subsurface waters. Due to the model's overestimation of Ωarag, this transition may occur even earlier than simulated by the model. Overall, our study shows that the CCS joins the Arctic and Southern oceans as one of only a few known ocean regions presently approaching the dual threshold of

  7. Long term liquidity analysis of the firm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Gonos

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity control is a very difficult and important function. If the business is not liquid in the long term, it is under threatof bankruptcy, and on the other hand surplus of the cash in hand threaten its future efficiency, because the cash in hand is a sourceof only limited profitability. Long term liquidity is related to the ability of the short term and long term liabilities payment. Articleis trying to point out to the monitoring and analyzing of the long term liquidity in the concrete business, in this case the printing industrycompany. Hereby at the end of the article mentioned monitored and analyzed liquidity is evaluated in the five years time period.

  8. Long-term avoidance memory formation is associated with a transient increase in mushroom body synaptic complexes in leaf-cutting ants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustina eFalibene

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Long-term behavioral changes related to learning and experience have been shown to be associated with structural remodeling in the brain. Leaf-cutting ants learn to avoid previously preferred plants after they have proved harmful for their symbiotic fungus, a process that involves long-term olfactory memory. We studied the dynamics of brain microarchitectural changes after long-term olfactory memory formation following avoidance learning in Acromyrmex ambiguus. After performing experiments to control for possible neuronal changes related to age and body size, we quantified synaptic complexes (microglomeruli, MG in olfactory regions of the mushroom bodies (MB at different times after learning. Long-term avoidance memory formation was associated with a transient change in MG densities. Two days after learning, MG density was higher than before learning. At days 4 and 15 after learning — when ants still showed plant avoidance — MG densities had decreased to the initial state. The structural reorganization of MG triggered by long-term avoidance memory formation clearly differed from changes promoted by pure exposure to and collection of novel plants with distinct odors. Sensory exposure by the simultaneous collection of several, instead of one, non-harmful plant species resulted in a decrease in MG densities in the olfactory lip. We hypothesize that while sensory exposure leads to MG pruning in the MB olfactory lip, the formation of long-term avoidance memory involves an initial growth of new MG followed by subsequent pruning.

  9. Long-term avoidance memory formation is associated with a transient increase in mushroom body synaptic complexes in leaf-cutting ants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falibene, Agustina; Roces, Flavio; Rössler, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Long-term behavioral changes related to learning and experience have been shown to be associated with structural remodeling in the brain. Leaf-cutting ants learn to avoid previously preferred plants after they have proved harmful for their symbiotic fungus, a process that involves long-term olfactory memory. We studied the dynamics of brain microarchitectural changes after long-term olfactory memory formation following avoidance learning in Acromyrmex ambiguus. After performing experiments to control for possible neuronal changes related to age and body size, we quantified synaptic complexes (microglomeruli, MG) in olfactory regions of the mushroom bodies (MBs) at different times after learning. Long-term avoidance memory formation was associated with a transient change in MG densities. Two days after learning, MG density was higher than before learning. At days 4 and 15 after learning-when ants still showed plant avoidance-MG densities had decreased to the initial state. The structural reorganization of MG triggered by long-term avoidance memory formation clearly differed from changes promoted by pure exposure to and collection of novel plants with distinct odors. Sensory exposure by the simultaneous collection of several, instead of one, non-harmful plant species resulted in a decrease in MG densities in the olfactory lip. We hypothesize that while sensory exposure leads to MG pruning in the MB olfactory lip, the formation of long-term avoidance memory involves an initial growth of new MG followed by subsequent pruning.

  10. PKA Increases in the Olfactory Bulb Act as Unconditioned Stimuli and Provide Evidence for Parallel Memory Systems: Pairing Odor with Increased PKA Creates Intermediate- and Long-Term, but Not Short-Term, Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimes, Matthew T.; Harley, Carolyn W.; Darby-King, Andrea; McLean, John H.

    2012-01-01

    Neonatal odor-preference memory in rat pups is a well-defined associative mammalian memory model dependent on cAMP. Previous work from this laboratory demonstrates three phases of neonatal odor-preference memory: short-term (translation-independent), intermediate-term (translation-dependent), and long-term (transcription- and…

  11. Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

  12. Long-term increased carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1A expression in ventromedial hypotalamus causes hyperphagia and alters the hypothalamic lipidomic profile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Mera

    Full Text Available Lipid metabolism in the ventromedial hypothalamus (VMH has emerged as a crucial pathway in the regulation of feeding and energy homeostasis. Carnitine palmitoyltransferase (CPT 1A is the rate-limiting enzyme in mitochondrial fatty acid β-oxidation and it has been proposed as a crucial mediator of fasting and ghrelin orexigenic signalling. However, the relationship between changes in CPT1A activity and the intracellular downstream effectors in the VMH that contribute to appetite modulation is not fully understood. To this end, we examined the effect of long-term expression of a permanently activated CPT1A isoform by using an adeno-associated viral vector injected into the VMH of rats. Peripherally, this procedure provoked hyperghrelinemia and hyperphagia, which led to overweight, hyperglycemia and insulin resistance. In the mediobasal hypothalamus (MBH, long-term CPT1AM expression in the VMH did not modify acyl-CoA or malonyl-CoA levels. However, it altered the MBH lipidomic profile since ceramides and sphingolipids increased and phospholipids decreased. Furthermore, we detected increased vesicular γ-aminobutyric acid transporter (VGAT and reduced vesicular glutamate transporter 2 (VGLUT2 expressions, both transporters involved in this orexigenic signal. Taken together, these observations indicate that CPT1A contributes to the regulation of feeding by modulating the expression of neurotransmitter transporters and lipid components that influence the orexigenic pathways in VMH.

  13. Comparative analysis of two community stressors' long-term mental health effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dew, M.A.; Bromet, E.J.; Schulberg, H.C.

    1987-01-01

    The investigation directly compared the long-term mental health consequences of two community-wide stressors, the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear accident and widespread unemployment due to layoff, in demographically comparable samples of women. Results showed a marked degree of similarity in the stressors' effects: Levels of subclinical symptomatology were elevated to similar degrees in each sample during the year following stressor onset, and symptom levels remained elevated in each sample 2 to 3 1/2 years later. Moreover, variables identified as predictors of enduring psychological distress were virtually identical for the two samples. Additional analyses revealed that the mental health status of unemployed husbands mediated the negative psychological effects of layoff on their wives. Implications of these results for understanding the long-term consequences of exposure to community-wide stress are discussed

  14. Unemployment and Long-Term Unemployment of Immigrants in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerija Botrić

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Migration issues in Croatia have been mostly discussed in relation to the recent increase in emigration, in particular related to the emigration of young and highly educated persons. However, active migration policy should consider immigration dynamics as well. In the framework of long-term prospects of the Croatian labour market, and taking into consideration the advanced effects of the demographic aging process, the issue of active immigration policy is expected to become more important in the future. The main goal of the paper is to analyse the existing position of immigrants on the Croatian labour market. Important characteristics of the Croatian labour market in recent years have been a high unemployment rate and high share of long-term unemployment. The effects of these adverse conditions are manifold, not only at the level of the economy (in terms of under-utilisation of available resources, but also at the level of affected individuals. Regarding individuals, the consequences of long-term unemployment frequently incorporate increased distance from the labour market due to the (perceived loss of skills. The aim of the paper is to investigate individual characteristics that predict either unemployment or long-term unemployment of the immigrant population in Croatia. The empirical analysis is based on the Labour Force Survey conducted by the Croatian Central Bureau of Statistics. Due to the data source used, the immigrant population is not defined on the basis of their nationality or citizenship. It entails all persons who were born outside Croatia and currently have permanent residence in the country. The second condition is directly related to the nature of the sample used for the Survey, where the sample frame relies on permanent residency. This implies that any short-term circular migrations (due to, for example, increased labour market during the tourist season are probably not covered by the data. To the extent that this is important

  15. Photometry of Variable Stars, and System Transformability Over Long Time Intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sterken C.

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The fundamental problem of long-term photometric monitoring of variable stars and of multi-wavelength photometric campaigns is the problem of bringing the data to a common standard. Such homogenization can be achieved only when the measurements are made in photometric systems that are truly transformable. This fundamental problem is of a technical nature, and photometric observers, sometimes, are not aware of the problems. This frequently leads to over-interpretation of the data.

  16. Fertility treatment: long-term growth and mental development of the children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bay, Bjørn

    2014-10-01

    Fertility treatment has been associated with obstetrical and perinatal complications. It is, however, uncertain whether fertility treatment or parental subfertility is associated with long-term development of the children. We aimed to assess the growth and mental health of children and adolescents conceived after fertility treatment compared to spontaneously conceived controls. First, we evaluated all previous studies comparing neurodevelopmental outcomes between children conceived after fertility treatment and spontaneous conceived controls. The systematic review clarified methodological limitations in the existing literature on the long-term development of children conceived after medical assisted reproduction. Although several studies had been published, large, well-controlled studies with long-term follow-up and thorough statistical adjustments were still few. Second, we evaluated the children's mental health by assessing the risk of mental disorders. We studied a population of 555,828 children conceived after spontaneous conception and 33,139 children conceived after fertility treatment with follow-up in 2012 when the children were 8-17 years old. The absolute risk and hazard ratio of overall and specific mental disorders were estimated while adjusting for potential confounding variables. Further, we estimated the association between subtypes of procedures, hormonal treatment, gamete types and cause of infertility on the one hand and the risk of mental disorders on the other. Children conceived after ovulation induction had a low, but significantly increased risks of autism spectrum disorders, hyperkinetic disorders, conduct, emotional, or social disorders, and tic disorders. Children conceived after IVF or ICSI showed no increased risk, except for a small risk of tic disorders. There was no risk systematically related to any specific type of hormone drug treatment. Thus, the increased risks may rely on residual confounding such as unknown parental factors

  17. Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.

    2015-06-01

    Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974-2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.

  18. Long-term exposure to noise impairs cortical sound processing and attention control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kujala, Teija; Shtyrov, Yury; Winkler, Istvan; Saher, Marieke; Tervaniemi, Mari; Sallinen, Mikael; Teder-Sälejärvi, Wolfgang; Alho, Kimmo; Reinikainen, Kalevi; Näätänen, Risto

    2004-11-01

    Long-term exposure to noise impairs human health, causing pathological changes in the inner ear as well as other anatomical and physiological deficits. Numerous individuals are daily exposed to excessive noise. However, there is a lack of systematic research on the effects of noise on cortical function. Here we report data showing that long-term exposure to noise has a persistent effect on central auditory processing and leads to concurrent behavioral deficits. We found that speech-sound discrimination was impaired in noise-exposed individuals, as indicated by behavioral responses and the mismatch negativity brain response. Furthermore, irrelevant sounds increased the distractibility of the noise-exposed subjects, which was shown by increased interference in task performance and aberrant brain responses. These results demonstrate that long-term exposure to noise has long-lasting detrimental effects on central auditory processing and attention control.

  19. Long-term outcomes of young people who attempted suicide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grisham, Jessica R; Williams, Alishia D

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Suicidal behavior has increased since the onset of the global recession, a trend that may have long-term health and social implications. OBJECTIVE To test whether suicide attempts among young people signal increased risk for later poor health and social functioning above and beyond a

  20. A systematic review on the long-term success of calcium phosphate plasma-spray-coated dental implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oirschot, B A J A; Bronkhorst, E M; van den Beucken, J J J P; Meijer, G J; Jansen, J A; Junker, R

    2016-09-01

    The objectives of the current review were (1) to systematically appraise, and (2) to evaluate long-term success data of calcium phosphate (CaP) plasma-spray-coated dental implants in clinical trials with at least 5 years of follow-up. To describe the long-term efficacy of functional implants, the outcome variables were (a) percentage annual complication rate (ACR) and (b) cumulative success rate (CSR), as presented in the selected articles. The electronic search yielded 645 titles. On the basis of the inclusion criteria, 8 studies were finally included. The percentage of implants in function after the first year was estimated to be 98.4 % in the maxilla and 99.2 % in the mandible. The estimates of the weighted mean ACR-percentage increased over the years up to 2.6 (SE 0.7) during the fifth year of function for the maxilla and to 9.4 (SE 8.4) for the mandible in the tenth year of function. After 10 years, the mean percentage of successful implants was estimated to be 71.1 % in the maxilla and 72.2 % in the mandible. The estimates seem to confirm the proposed, long-term progressive bone loss pattern of CaP-ceramic-coated dental implants. Within the limits of this meta-analytic approach to the literature, we conclude that: (1) published long-term success data for calcium phosphate plasma-spray-coated dental implants are limited, (2) comparison of the data is difficult due to differences in success criteria among the studies, and (3) long-term CSRs demonstrate very weak evidence for progressive complications around calcium phosphate plasma-spray-coated dental implants.

  1. Long-term bioventing performance in low-permeability soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phelps, M.B.; Stanin, F.T.; Downey, D.C.

    1995-01-01

    Short-term and long-term bioventing treatability testing has shown that in situ air injection and extraction is a practical method for sustaining increased oxygen levels and enhancing aerobic biodegradation of petroleum hydrocarbons in low-permeability soils. At several test sites, initial physical parameter analysis of soils and air permeability tests indicated that impacted soils (fine sandy silts and clays) had low air permeabilities. Measurements of depleted soil-gas oxygen levels and increased soil-gas carbon dioxide levels indicated that the natural process of aerobic biodegradation of petroleum hydrocarbons was oxygen-limited. Initial treatability testing consisted of air permeability tests to measure the permeability of the soils to air and in situ respiration tests to measure the rates at which native microorganisms could biodegrade the contaminants when provided with sufficient oxygen. During the long-term treatment period, active air injection or extraction systems were operated for 1 year or longer. Soil gas was periodically monitored within the treatment zone to evaluate the success of the bioventing systems in increasing soil-gas oxygen levels in the low-permeability soils. Follow-up respiration tests and soil and soil-gas sampling were conducted to evaluate changes in respiration rates and contaminant concentrations with time

  2. Long term radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavie, J.M.

    1984-01-01

    In France, waste management, a sensitive issue in term of public opinion, is developing quickly, and due to twenty years of experience, is now reaching maturity. With the launching of the French nuclear programme, the use of radioactive sources in radiotherapy and industry, waste management has become an industrial activity. Waste management is an integrated system dealing with the wastes from their production to the long term disposal, including their identification, sortage, treatment, packaging, collection and transport. This system aims at guaranteing the protection of present and future populations with an available technology. In regard to their long term management, and the design of disposals, radioactive wastes are divided in three categories. This classification takes into account the different radioisotopes contained, their half life and their total activity. Presently short-lived wastes are stored in the shallowland disposal of the ''Centre de la Manche''. Set up within the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the National Agency for waste management (ANDRA) is responsible within the framework of legislative and regulatory provisions for long term waste management in France [fr

  3. Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osterrieder, Daniela

    .S. government bonds, we model the time series of the state vector by means of a co-fractional vector autoregressive model. The implication is that yields of all maturities exhibit nonstationary, yet mean-reverting, long-memory behavior of the order d ≈ 0.87. The long-run dynamics of the state vector are driven......We propose a model for the term structure of interest rates that is a generalization of the discrete-time, Gaussian, affine yield-curve model. Compared to standard affine models, our model allows for general linear dynamics in the vector of state variables. In an application to real yields of U...... forecasts that outperform several benchmark models, especially at long forecasting horizons....

  4. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  5. Long-term sickness absence from work due to physical inactivity: A registry-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Høgsbro, Cecilie; Davidsen, Michael; Sørensen, Jan

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between leisure-time physical inactivity and long-term sickness absence in a representative sample of individuals aged 16-54 years, within the labour market and in good health. It was hypothesised that physically inactive individuals have a higher risk of long-term sickness absence and longer duration of sickness absence. The study population was identified from the National Health and Morbidity Survey, 2010. Weekly data on long-term sickness absence were obtained from the National Register on Social Transfer Payments (the DREAM registry). The association of incidence and duration of long-term sickness absence with physical inactivity was explored using logistic and Poisson regression. Data were fitted to models with levels of physical activity, demographic, social and lifestyle characteristics as independent variables. A combined hurdle model was used to estimate the difference in mean number of absence weeks. Logistic regression showed that physically inactive individuals had a 27% higher incidence of long-term sickness absence compared with physically active individuals. The Poisson regression showed that long-term sickness absence was only slightly shorter (1 week less) for moderately active individuals compared with inactive individuals. The hurdle model estimated longer absence periods for inactive individuals (additional 2.5 weeks) in comparison with moderately and highly active individuals. The study showed that physically inactive individuals have a higher incidence of long-term absence and that physically inactive individuals have longer periods with sickness absence than moderately and highly active individuals. When adjustments for social and health behaviour were included, the estimated associations became statistically insignificant.

  6. Handling geological and economic uncertainties in balancing short-term and long-term objectives in waterflooding optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siraj, M.M.; Van Den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2017-01-01

    Model-based economic optimization of oil production has a significant scope to increase financial life-cycle performance. The net-present-value (NPV) objective in this optimization, because of its nature, focuses on long-term gains, whereas short-term production is not explicitly addressed. At the

  7. Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Avens

    Full Text Available Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii, the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp's ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL estimated using the "rapprochement" skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp's ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends.

  8. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Comité des collectes à long terme

    2011-01-01

    It is the time of the year when our fireman colleagues go around the laboratory for their traditional calendars sale. A part of the money of the sales will be donated in favour of the long-term collections. We hope that you will welcome them warmly.

  9. Accelerated long-term forgetting in aging and intra-sleep awakenings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison eMary

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The architecture of sleep and the functional neuroanatomical networks subtending memory consolidation processes are both modified with aging, possibly leading to accelerated forgetting in long-term memory. We investigated associative learning and declarative memory consolidation processes in 16 young (18–30 years and 16 older (65–75 years healthy adults. Performance was tested using a cued recall procedure at the end of learning (immediate recall, and 30 minutes and 7 days later. A delayed recognition test was also administered on day 7. Daily sleep diaries were completed during the entire experiment. Results revealed a similar percentage of correct responses at immediate and 30-minute recall in young and older participants. However, recall was significantly decreased 7 days later, with an increased forgetting in older participants. Additionally, intra-sleep awakenings were more frequent in older participants than young adults during the 7 nights, and were negatively correlated with delayed recall performance on day 7 in the older group. Altogether, our results suggest a decline in verbal declarative memory consolidation processes with aging, eventually leading to accelerated long-term forgetting indicating that increased sleep fragmentation due to more frequent intra-sleep awakenings in older participants contribute to the reported age-related decline in long-term memory retrieval. Our results highlight the sensitivity of long-term forgetting measures to evidence consolidation deficits in healthy aging.

  10. Long-term field application of sewage sludge increases the abundance of antibiotic resistance genes in soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qinglin; An, Xinli; Li, Hu; Su, Jianqiang; Ma, Yibing; Zhu, Yong-Guan

    2016-01-01

    Sewage sludge and manure are common soil amendments in crop production; however, their impact on the abundance and diversity of the antibiotic resistome in soil remains elusive. In this study, by using high-throughput sequencing and high-throughput quantitative PCR, the patterns of bacterial community and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in a long-term field experiment were investigated to gain insights into these impacts. A total of 130 unique ARGs and 5 mobile genetic elements (MGEs) were detected and the long-term application of sewage sludge and chicken manure significantly increased the abundance and diversity of ARGs in the soil. Genes conferring resistance to beta-lactams, tetracyclines, and multiple drugs were dominant in the samples. Sewage sludge or chicken manure applications caused significant enrichment of 108 unique ARGs and MGEs with a maximum enrichment of up to 3845 folds for mexF. The enrichment of MGEs suggested that the application of sewage sludge or manure may accelerate the dissemination of ARGs in soil through horizontal gene transfer (HGT). Based on the co-occurrence pattern of ARGs subtypes revealed by network analysis, aacC, oprD and mphA-02, were proposed to be potential indicators for quantitative estimation of the co-occurring ARGs subtypes abundance by power functions. The application of sewage sludge and manure resulted in significant increase of bacterial diversity in soil, Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria and Chloroflexi were the dominant phyla (>10% in each sample). Five bacterial phyla (Chloroflexi, Planctomycetes, Firmicutes, Gemmatimonadetes and Bacteroidetes) were found to be significantly correlated with the ARGs in soil. Mantel test and variation partitioning analysis (VPA) suggested that bacterial community shifts, rather than MGEs, is the major driver shaping the antibiotic resistome. Additionally, the co-occurrence pattern between ARGs and microbial taxa revealed by network analysis indicated that four

  11. Tax shifting in long-term gas sales contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Osmundsen, Petter; Tveteraas, Ragnar

    2002-01-01

    Producers or consumers faced with an increase in taxes are usually able to shift parts of it to other levels in the value chain. We examine who are actually bearing the burden of increased taxes on natural gas in the EU-area - consumers or exporters. Strategic trade policy and cross-border consumer tax shifting are of particular interest, as the EU-area increasingly is a net importer of gas. Traditional tax incidence theory presumes spot markets. Natural gas in the EU-area, however, is to a large extent regulated by incomplete long-term contracts. Still, spot market forces could be indicative for tax shifting, by determining the ex post bargaining power in contract renegotiations. By examining tax shifting in gas sales data we test whether this is the case. To investigate tax incidence, we estimate natural gas demand elasticities for the household sector in EU countries as well as a reduced form import equation. We test whether gas import prices, which are predominantly determined by long-term contracts, have been influenced by end-user tax shifts. (author)

  12. Long-term CO2 fertilization increases vegetation productivity and has little effect on hydrological partitioning in tropical rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuting; Donohue, Randall J.; McVicar, Tim R.; Roderick, Michael L.; Beck, Hylke E.

    2016-08-01

    Understanding how tropical rainforests respond to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) is essential for predicting Earth's carbon, water, and energy budgets under future climate change. Here we use long-term (1982-2010) precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) measurements to infer runoff coefficient (Q/P) and evapotranspiration (E) trends across 18 unimpaired tropical rainforest catchments. We complement that analysis by using satellite observations coupled with ecosystem process modeling (using both "top-down" and "bottom-up" perspectives) to examine trends in carbon uptake and relate that to the observed changes in Q/P and E. Our results show there have been only minor changes in the satellite-observed canopy leaf area over 1982-2010, suggesting that eCO2 has not increased vegetation leaf area in tropical rainforests and therefore any plant response to eCO2 occurs at the leaf level. Meanwhile, observed Q/P and E also remained relatively constant in the 18 catchments, implying an unchanged hydrological partitioning and thus approximately conserved transpiration under eCO2. For the same period, using a top-down model based on gas exchange theory, we predict increases in plant assimilation (A) and light use efficiency (ɛ) at the leaf level under eCO2, the magnitude of which is essentially that of eCO2 (i.e., 12% over 1982-2010). Simulations from 10 state-of-the-art bottom-up ecosystem models over the same catchments also show that the direct effect of eCO2 is to mostly increase A and ɛ with little impact on E. Our findings add to the current limited pool of knowledge regarding the long-term eCO2 impacts in tropical rainforests.

  13. LONG-TERM X-RAY MONITORING OF THE YOUNG PULSAR PSR B1509–58

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Livingstone, Margaret A.; Kaspi, Victoria M.

    2011-01-01

    It has long been thought that the pulsed X-ray properties of rotation-powered pulsars are stable on long timescales. However, long-term, systematic studies of individual sources have been lacking. Furthermore, dramatic X-ray variability has now been observed from two pulsars having inferred sub-critical dipole magnetic fields. Here we present an analysis of the long-term pulsed X-ray properties of the young, energetic pulsar PSR B1509–58 using data from the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. We measured the 2-50 keV pulsed flux for 14.7 yr of X-ray observations and found that it is consistent with being constant on all relevant timescales, and place a 3σ upper limit on day-to-week variability of <28%. In addition, we searched for magnetar-like X-ray bursts in all observations and found none, which we use to constrain the measurable burst rate to less than one per 750 ks of observations. We also searched for variability in the pulse profile and found that it is consistent with being stable on timescales of days to decades. This supports the hypothesis that X-ray properties of rotation-powered X-ray pulsars can be stable on decade-long timescales. In addition, we extend the existing timing solution by 7.1 yr to a total of 28.4 yr and report updated values of the braking index, n = 2.832 ± 0.003, and the second braking index, m = 17.6 ± 1.9.

  14. Quality of life after surgical treatment of coarctation in long-term follow-up (CoAFU): Predictive value of clinical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambul Heck, Pinar; Pabst von Ohain, Jelena; Kaemmerer, Harald; Ewert, Peter; Hager, Alfred

    2018-01-01

    We sought to analyze the quality of life and the predictive value of clinical variables from previous follow-up study in patients late after surgical treatment of aortic coarctation on the quality of life. All patients, who have participated in the prospective cross-sectional COALA Study in 2000 with a structural clinical investigation including blood pressure measurement and symptom-limited exercise test were contacted for the health-related quality of life questionnaire SF-36 from January 2013 through December 2014. From 273 eligible patients, we received data from 135 patients, 9 of them died during the follow-up time at the median age of 46years (range 30-64years). Seventy-four patients did not participate in the study, other 64 patients moved to remote or unknown areas and could not be contacted. Quality of life was good in the fields of physical role and pain. However, patients reported a significant impairment in general health and in health transition, depending on the age. Arterial hypertension and variables from echocardiography or exercise testing from the COALA study were not predictive on functional health status. Quality of life in patients late after aortic coarctation repair is fairly good compared with healthy controls. Impairments in general health and health transition depend mainly on age, can be explained due to numerous comorbidities and reinterventions in long-term. The predictive value of the commonly assessed clinical variables on quality of life is limited. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Applicability of short-term accelerated biofouling studies to predict long-term biofouling accumulation in reverse osmosis membrane systems

    KAUST Repository

    Sanawar, Huma

    2018-02-02

    Biofouling studies addressing biofouling control are mostly executed in short-term studies. It is unclear whether data collected from these experiments are representative for long-term biofouling as occurring in full-scale membrane systems. This study investigated whether short-term biofouling studies accelerated by biodegradable nutrient dosage to feed water were predictive for long-term biofouling development without nutrient dosage. Since the presence of a feed spacer has an strong effect on the degree of biofouling, this study employed six geometrically different feed spacers. Membrane fouling simulators (MFSs) were operated with the same (i) membrane, (ii) feed flow and (iii) feed water, but with feed spacers varying in geometry. For the short-term experiment, biofilm formation was enhanced by nutrient dosage to the MFS feed water, whereas no nutrient dosage was applied in the long-term experiment. Pressure drop development was monitored to characterize the extent of biofouling, while the accumulated viable biomass content at the end of the experimental run was quantified by adenosine triphosphate (ATP) measurements. Impact of feed spacer geometry on biofouling was compared for the short-term and long-term biofouling study. The results of the study revealed that the feed spacers exhibited the same biofouling behavior for (i) the short-term (9-d) study with nutrient dosage and (ii) the long-term (96-d) study without nutrient dosage. For the six different feed spacers, the accumulated viable biomass content (pg ATP.cm) was roughly the same, but the biofouling impact in terms of pressure drop increase in time was significantly different. The biofouling impact ranking of the six feed spacers was the same for the short-term and long-term biofouling studies. Therefore, it can be concluded that short-term accelerated biofouling studies in MFSs are a representative and suitable approach for the prediction of biofouling in membrane filtration systems after long-term

  16. The Long-Term Economic Impact of In Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria

    OpenAIRE

    Alan Barreca

    2009-01-01

    I use an instrumental-variables identification strategy and historical data from the United States to estimate the long-term economic impact of in utero and postnatal exposure to malaria. My research design matches adults in the 1960 Decennial Census to the malaria death rate in their respective state and year of birth. To address potential omitted variables bias and measurement-error bias, I use variation in "malaria-ideal" temperatures to instrument for malaria exposure. My estimates indica...

  17. Assessing the long-term variability of acetylene and ethane in the stratosphere of Jupiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melin, Henrik; Fletcher, L. N.; Donnelly, P. T.; Greathouse, T. K.; Lacy, J. H.; Orton, G. S.; Giles, R. S.; Sinclair, J. A.; Irwin, P. G. J.

    2018-05-01

    Acetylene (C2H2) and ethane (C2H6) are both produced in the stratosphere of Jupiter via photolysis of methane (CH4). Despite this common source, the latitudinal distribution of the two species is radically different, with acetylene decreasing in abundance towards the pole, and ethane increasing towards the pole. We present six years of NASA IRTF TEXES mid-infrared observations of the zonally-averaged emission of methane, acetylene and ethane. We confirm that the latitudinal distributions of ethane and acetylene are decoupled, and that this is a persistent feature over multiple years. The acetylene distribution falls off towards the pole, peaking at ∼ 30°N with a volume mixing ratio (VMR) of ∼ 0.8 parts per million (ppm) at 1 mbar and still falling off at ± 70° with a VMR of ∼ 0.3 ppm. The acetylene distributions are asymmetric on average, but as we move from 2013 to 2017, the zonally-averaged abundance becomes more symmetric about the equator. We suggest that both the short term changes in acetylene and its latitudinal asymmetry is driven by changes to the vertical stratospheric mixing, potentially related to propagating wave phenomena. Unlike acetylene, ethane has a symmetric distribution about the equator that increases toward the pole, with a peak mole fraction of ∼ 18 ppm at about ± 50° latitude, with a minimum at the equator of ∼ 10 ppm at 1 mbar. The ethane distribution does not appear to respond to mid-latitude stratospheric mixing in the same way as acetylene, potentially as a result of the vertical gradient of ethane being much shallower than that of acetylene. The equator-to-pole distributions of acetylene and ethane are consistent with acetylene having a shorter lifetime than ethane that is not sensitive to longer advective timescales, but is augmented by short-term dynamics, such as vertical mixing. Conversely, the long lifetime of ethane allows it to be transported to higher latitudes faster than it can be chemically depleted.

  18. Long-term musical training may improve different forms of visual attention ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Ana Carolina; Loureiro, Maurício Alves; Caramelli, Paulo

    2013-08-01

    Many studies have suggested that structural and functional cerebral neuroplastic processes result from long-term musical training, which in turn may produce cognitive differences between musicians and non-musicians. We aimed to investigate whether intensive, long-term musical practice is associated with improvements in three different forms of visual attention ability: selective, divided and sustained attention. Musicians from symphony orchestras (n=38) and non-musicians (n=38), who were comparable in age, gender and education, were submitted to three neuropsychological tests, measuring reaction time and accuracy. Musicians showed better performance relative to non-musicians on four variables of the three visual attention tests, and such an advantage could not solely be explained by better sensorimotor integration. Moreover, in the group of musicians, significant correlations were observed between the age at the commencement of musical studies and reaction time in all visual attention tests. The results suggest that musicians present augmented ability in different forms of visual attention, thus illustrating the possible cognitive benefits of long-term musical training. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Insomnia in long-term care facilities: a comparison of seven European countries and Israel: the Services and Health for Elderly in Long TERm care study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gindin, Jacob; Shochat, Tamar; Chetrit, Angela; Epstein, Shulamit; Ben Israel, Yehoshua; Levi, Sarah; Onder, Graziano; Carpenter, Ian; Finne-Soveri, Harriet; van Hout, Hein; Henrard, Jean-Claude; Nikolaus, Thorsten; Topinkova, Eva; Fialová, Daniela; Bernabei, Roberto

    2014-11-01

    To assess insomnia and its correlates as part of the Services and Health for Elderly in Long TERm care (SHELTER) study, funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union. Cross-cultural investigation. Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in eight European countries (Czech Republic, France, Finland, Germany, England, the Netherlands, Italy) and one non-European country (Israel). Elderly residents (N = 4,156) of 57 LTCFs. Information on insomnia, age, sex, activities of daily living (ADLs), cognitive status, depression, major stressful life events, physical activity, fatigue, pain, and sleep medication use was extracted from the International Resident Assessment Instrument (interRAI)LTCF instrument. Rates of insomnia and its correlates were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with insomnia, controlling for demographic variables. The prevalence of insomnia was 24% (range 13-30%), with significant differences between countries (P < .001). More insomnia complaints were reported in older than younger residents (P < .001). Higher rates of insomnia were associated with hypnosedatives and depression in all countries (P < .001) and with stressful life events, fatigue, and pain in most countries (P < .001). No associations were found between insomnia and ADLs, physical activity, or cognitive status. Age, depression, stressful life events, fatigue, pain and hypnosedatives were independent significant predictors of insomnia, controlling for all other variables and for country. Hypnosedatives and depression were strong predictors of insomnia beyond cultural differences. Overall, psychosocial variables were more strongly related to insomnia than functional and mental capacities. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

  20. Variation in benthic long-term data of transitional waters: Is interpretation more than speculation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Lothar Zettler

    Full Text Available Biological long-term data series in marine habitats are often used to identify anthropogenic impacts on the environment or climate induced regime shifts. However, particularly in transitional waters, environmental properties like water mass dynamics, salinity variability and the occurrence of oxygen minima not necessarily caused by either human activities or climate change can attenuate or mask apparent signals. At first glance it very often seems impossible to interpret the strong fluctuations of e.g. abundances or species richness, since abiotic variables like salinity and oxygen content vary simultaneously as well as in apparently erratic ways. The long-term development of major macrozoobenthic parameters (abundance, biomass, species numbers and derivative macrozoobenthic indices (Shannon diversity, Margalef, Pilou's evenness and Hurlbert has been successfully interpreted and related to the long-term fluctuations of salinity and oxygen, incorporation of the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO index, relying on the statistical analysis of modelled and measured data during 35 years of observation at three stations in the south-western Baltic Sea. Our results suggest that even at a restricted spatial scale the benthic system does not appear to be tightly controlled by any single environmental driver and highlight the complexity of spatially varying temporal response.

  1. New Developments in Long-Term Downhole Monitoring Arrays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jochem Kück

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The long-term observation of active geological processes is a major research goal in an increasing number of scientific drilling projects. An extended monitoring phase within a potentially hostile environment (e.g., temperature, pressure, salinity requires new long-lasting and robust instrumentation currently unavailable from either industry or academia. Extended exposure of instrument packages to extreme conditions will typically cause seals to weaken and fail,electronic parts to break under permanent load, and sensors to degrade or develop strong drift. In the framework of scientific exploration, there are currently several major research projects targeting fault zone drilling and in situ measurements to monitor physical and chemical conditions before, during, and after seismic events. Planning has now begun for tool development, testing, and continuous long-term monitoring for the San Andreas Fault Zone Observatory at Depth, SAFOD (Parkfi eld, Calif., U.S.A.; See article on page 32..

  2. Long term ice sheet mass change rates and inter-annual variability from GRACE gravimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harig, C.

    2017-12-01

    The GRACE time series of gravimetry now stretches 15 years since its launch in 2002. Here we use Slepian functions to estimate the long term ice mass trends of Greenland, Antarctica, and several glaciated regions. The spatial representation shows multi-year to decadal regional shifts in accelerations, in agreement with increases in radar derived ice velocity. Interannual variations in ice mass are of particular interest since they can directly link changes in ice sheets to the drivers of change in the polar ocean and atmosphere. The spatial information retained in Slepian functions provides a tool to determine how this link varies in different regions within an ice sheet. We present GRACE observations of the 2013-2014 slowdown in mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which was concentrated in specific parts of the ice sheet and in certain months of the year. We also discuss estimating the relative importance of climate factors that control ice mass balance, as a function of location of the glacier/ice cap as well as the spatial variation within an ice sheet by comparing gravimetry with observations of surface air temperature, ocean temperature, etc. as well as model data from climate reanalysis products.

  3. Model and economic uncertainties in balancing short-term and long-term objectives in water-flooding optimization.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siraj, M.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2015-01-01

    Model-based optimization of oil production has a significant scope to increase ultimate recovery or financial life-cycle performance. The Net Present Value (NPV) objective in such an optimization framework, because of its nature, focuses on the long-term gains while the short-term production is not

  4. A Long-term Plan for Kalk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    In this case, the author demonstrates together with the owner-manager of KALK A/S, Mr Rasmus Jorgensen, how to use the Family Business Map to frame a constructive discussion about long-term planning. The Family Business Map is a tool for long-term planning in family firms developed by Professor...

  5. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  6. Effects of Long Term Supplementation of Anabolic Androgen Steroids on Human Skeletal Muscle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ji-Guo; Bonnerud, Patrik; Eriksson, Anders; Stål, Per S.; Tegner, Yelverton; Malm, Christer

    2014-01-01

    The effects of long-term (over several years) anabolic androgen steroids (AAS) administration on human skeletal muscle are still unclear. In this study, seventeen strength training athletes were recruited and individually interviewed regarding self-administration of banned substances. Ten subjects admitted having taken AAS or AAS derivatives for the past 5 to 15 years (Doped) and the dosage and type of banned substances were recorded. The remaining seven subjects testified to having never used any banned substances (Clean). For all subjects, maximal muscle strength and body composition were tested, and biopsies from the vastus lateralis muscle were obtained. Using histochemistry and immunohistochemistry (IHC), muscle biopsies were evaluated for morphology including fiber type composition, fiber size, capillary variables and myonuclei. Compared with the Clean athletes, the Doped athletes had significantly higher lean leg mass, capillary per fibre and myonuclei per fiber. In contrast, the Doped athletes had significantly lower absolute value in maximal squat force and relative values in maximal squat force (relative to lean body mass, to lean leg mass and to muscle fiber area). Using multivariate statistics, an orthogonal projection of latent structure discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) model was established, in which the maximal squat force relative to muscle mass and the maximal squat force relative to fiber area, together with capillary density and nuclei density were the most important variables for separating Doped from the Clean athletes (regression  =  0.93 and prediction  =  0.92, p<0.0001). In Doped athletes, AAS dose-dependent increases were observed in lean body mass, muscle fiber area, capillary density and myonuclei density. In conclusion, long term AAS supplementation led to increases in lean leg mass, muscle fiber size and a parallel improvement in muscle strength, and all were dose-dependent. Administration of AAS may induce sustained

  7. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted imag...

  8. Long-term prophylaxis in severe factor VII deficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siboni, S M; Biguzzi, E; Mistretta, C; Garagiola, I; Peyvandi, F

    2015-11-01

    The spectrum of bleeding problems in FVII deficiency is highly variable and FVII levels and causative genetic mutations correlate poorly with the bleeding risk. Long-term prophylaxis is generally initiated in order to prevent subsequent CNS bleeding after a first event or in patients with other major/ life threatening/ frequent bleeding symptoms as gastrointestinal bleeding or hemarthrosis. However few data are available in the literature regarding FVII prophylaxis and clinical decisions cannot be based on evidence. We report the data available in the literature on FVII prophylaxis and our personal experience regarding three patients affected by severe FVII deficiency. Specific papers on long-term prophylaxis in severe FVII deficiency were identified using the database, PUBMED. The most frequent indications for long-term prophylaxis were CNS bleeding (58%), hemartrosis (15%) and GI bleeding (9%). Patients were treated with various dosages and frequency. Prophylactic treatment with 10-30U/kg (pdFVII) or 20-30mcg/kg (rFVIIa) twice or three times/weeks was described to be effective. In the literature and in our experience, prophylaxis can be considered in patients with severe FVII deficiency and severe bleeding phenotype. A dose of 10-30U/kg (pdFVII) or 20-30 microg/kg (rFVIIa) twice or three times/week is usually administrated, but dose and frequency can be tailored based on the clinical follow-up of the patients. Since hemarthrosis is a frequent manifestation, a suggestion to improve the outcomes of patients with severe FVII deficiency is to monitor joint condition in order to identify early arthropathy that could be another indication to start secondary prophylaxis. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Multimethod Behavioral Treatment of Long-Term Selective Mutism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, T. Steuart; Kramer, Jack J.

    1992-01-01

    Conducted single-subject, experimental research to examine efficacy of treating severe, long-term selective mutism in nine-year-old male using shaping, multiple reinforcers, natural consequences, stimulus fading, and mild aversives. Implemented different treatment regimens in home and school environments. Home intervention resulted in increase in…

  10. [Effects of long-term fertilization on enzyme activities in black soil of Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shu-Qi; Han, Xiao-Zeng; Qiao, Yun-Fa; Wang, Shou-Yu

    2008-03-01

    In this paper, black soil samples at the depths of 0-20 cm and 20-40 cm were collected from the Hailun Agricultural Ecology Station of Chinese Academy of Sciences to study the effects of long-term fertilization on their urease, invertase, phosphatase and catalase activities and total C and N contents. The results showed that long-term application of chemical fertilizers and organic manure increased the activities of urease, invertase and phosphatase in 0-20 cm and 20-40 cm soil layers in different degree, and the combined application of them increased the activities of the three enzymes significantly, with an increment of 43.6%-113.2%, 25.9%-79.5% and 14.7%-134.4% in 0-20 cm soil layer and 56.1%-127.2%, 14.5%-113.8% and 16.2%-207.2% in 20-40 cm soil layer, respectively. However, long-term application of chemical fertilizers without organic manure had little effects on catalase activity. The activities of urease, invertase and phosphatase decreased with increasing soil depth. Long-term application of N fertilizer increased urease activity, and P fertilization had obvious positive effect on phosphatase activity. Long-term fertilization also had obvious effects on the soil total C and N contents and C/N ratio.

  11. A Tool for the Quantitative Anthropology of Music: Use of the nPVI Equation to Analyze Rhythmic Variability within Long-term Historical Patterns in Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph R Daniele

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of musical style across time and geography is of particular interest to historians and musicologists, yet quantitative evidence to support these trends has been lacking. This paper illustrates a novel application of the nPVI ('normalized pairwise variability index' equation to probe and quantify the rhythmic components of music over time. The nPVI equation quantifies the average difference between adjacent events in a sequence (e.g. musical notes in a melody, successive vowels in a spoken sentence. Building upon an earlier finding that German/Austrian composer nPVI values increased steadily from 1600 to 1950 (while Italian composers showed no such increase, the nPVI 'distribution' of themes from individual composers was quantitatively explored. Interestingly, the proportion of 'low nPVI' or 'Italianate' themes decreases rapidly with time while 'high nPVI' (more Germanic themes concomitantly increase in frequency. 'Middle range nPVIs' exhibit a constant incidence, arguing for a replacement of 'low nPVIs' (Italianate with 'high nPVIs' over a short time instead of a more modest, long-term progressive shift. Thus, the precise rhythmic components of complex stylistic shifts in music can be quantitatively extracted from music and support the historical record and theory.

  12. A New View of Long-Term Geomagnetic Field Secular Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve P. Lund

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study carries out a statistical analysis of high-resolution PSV records for the last ~70 ka from three different regions of the Earth. We consider directional and intensity variability in each region on time scales of 103-105 years in order to evaluate long-term PSV. We then compare those results with more traditional long-term PSV statistical studies averaged over ~106 years. Three replicate PSV records from one region (subtropical North Atlantic Ocean were averaged at overlapping 3 and 9 ka intervals. Variability in both scalar inclination and declination variability and vector angular dispersion are significant and coherent among the three records. The vector dispersion is relatively low for most of the time but contains two relatively narrow intervals (~30–42 and 60–65 ka of high dispersion. (Vector dispersion in all records was calculated after removing directions with true excursional VGPs, VGPs < 45° N. We have carried out a comparable statistical analysis on two other PSV records from other parts of the Earth (Chile margin; Philippines/Indonesia. The results for these three regions are comparable in their overall style of variability. The scalar directional variability from the Philippines/Indonesia is quite different in detail from the other two regions, as might be expected, but the scalar directional variability between the Western Hemisphere regions is remarkably consistent considering their distance from one another. This may be associated with them being on the same longitude swath and having some coherent dynamo activity occurring along that path. Three magnetic field excursions occur in the study interval. All three excursions are associated with the two highest vector dispersion intervals. Paleointensity records from the three regions were subjected to the same statistical analysis as the directions. These records are all coherent in their pattern of variability. The similarity in paleointensity variability on a global

  13. The requirement for enhanced CREB1 expression in consolidation of long-term synaptic facilitation and long-term excitability in sensory neurons of Aplysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rong-Yu; Cleary, Leonard J.; Byrne, John H.

    2011-01-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests that the transcriptional activator CREB1 is important for serotonin (5-HT)-induced long-term facilitation (LTF) of the sensorimotor synapse in Aplysia. Moreover, creb1 is among the genes activated by CREB1, suggesting a role for this protein beyond the induction phase of LTF. The time course of the requirement for CREB1 synthesis in the consolidation of long-term facilitation was examined using RNA interference (RNAi) techniques in sensorimotor co-cultures. Injection of CREB1 small-interfering RNA (siRNA) immediately or 10 h after 5-HT treatment blocked LTF when measured at 24 h and 48 h after treatment. In contrast, CREB1 siRNA did not block LTF when injected 16 h after 5-HT treatment. These results demonstrate that creb1 expression must be sustained for a relatively long time in order to support the consolidation of LTF. In addition, LTF is also accompanied by a long-term increase in the excitability (LTE) of sensory neurons (SNs). Because LTE was observed in the isolated SN after 5-HT treatment, this long-term change was intrinsic to that element of the circuit. LTE was blocked when CREB1 siRNA was injected into isolated SNs immediately after 5-HT treatment. These data suggest that 5-HT-induced CREB1 synthesis is required for consolidation of both LTF and LTE. PMID:21543617

  14. Contributing factors to long-term psychological consequences in Hiroshima A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asukai, Nozomu; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Kato, Hiroshi; Nakajima, Midori; Saeki, Toshinari

    2012-01-01

    The atomic bombing in Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, caused an estimated casualty of 140,000 by the end of that year. Survivors faced hideous scenes and many lost family members. Later, in the early 1960s, increased rates of leukemia and other types of cancer were observed among the survivors. These long-term health effects caused serious apprehension to linger. However, only a few studies on psychological consequences among the survivors have been conducted. In 2008, Hiroshima City commissioned our study team to perform a large-scale survey on long-term health effects among the survivors. We delivered a questionnaire by mail to all subjects who were living in Hiroshima City and adjacent towns prior to the release of the A-bomb until the study was implemented. The number of potential subjects was 31,598 and the response rate was 75%. We analyzed a subsample of subjects (n=14,373) whose age at the event was 8 or above. In the multiple regression analysis, hibakusha (A-bomb victims) and those who were exposed to the Black Rain (fall-out) showed poor mental health compared to the comparison group on SF-8, K6 and IES-R scores even after adjusting socio-demographic variables. Although traumatic experiences at the event still affected mental health, anxiety for health effects and social stigma showed greater impact. Our findings suggest that even 63 years after the event, apprehension of health effects and social stigma harm mental health in A-bomb survivors. Our findings may also suggest that long-term risk communication will be vital to mitigate mental health effects among survivors of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. (author)

  15. Contributing factors to long-term psychological consequences in Hiroshima A-bomb survivors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asukai, Nozomu [Tokyo Metropolitan Inst. of Medical Science, Tokyo (Japan); Sugiyama, Hiromi [Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima, Hiroshima (Japan); Kato, Hiroshi [Hyogo Inst. for Traumatic Stress, Kobe, Hyogo (Japan); Nakajima, Midori [Hiroshima International Univ., Faculty of Psychological Science, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima (Japan); Saeki, Toshinari [Hiroshima Univ., Faculty of Medicine, Hiroshima, Hiroshima (Japan)

    2012-05-15

    The atomic bombing in Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, caused an estimated casualty of 140,000 by the end of that year. Survivors faced hideous scenes and many lost family members. Later, in the early 1960s, increased rates of leukemia and other types of cancer were observed among the survivors. These long-term health effects caused serious apprehension to linger. However, only a few studies on psychological consequences among the survivors have been conducted. In 2008, Hiroshima City commissioned our study team to perform a large-scale survey on long-term health effects among the survivors. We delivered a questionnaire by mail to all subjects who were living in Hiroshima City and adjacent towns prior to the release of the A-bomb until the study was implemented. The number of potential subjects was 31,598 and the response rate was 75%. We analyzed a subsample of subjects (n=14,373) whose age at the event was 8 or above. In the multiple regression analysis, hibakusha (A-bomb victims) and those who were exposed to the Black Rain (fall-out) showed poor mental health compared to the comparison group on SF-8, K6 and IES-R scores even after adjusting socio-demographic variables. Although traumatic experiences at the event still affected mental health, anxiety for health effects and social stigma showed greater impact. Our findings suggest that even 63 years after the event, apprehension of health effects and social stigma harm mental health in A-bomb survivors. Our findings may also suggest that long-term risk communication will be vital to mitigate mental health effects among survivors of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. (author)

  16. Pediatric patients with common variable immunodeficiency: long-term follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadinejad, P; Aghamohammadi, A; Abolhassani, H; Sadaghiani, M S; Abdollahzade, S; Sadeghi, B; Soheili, H; Tavassoli, M; Fathi, S M; Tavakol, M; Behniafard, N; Darabi, B; Pourhamdi, S; Rezaei, N

    2012-01-01

    Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is the most common form of symptomatic primary immunodeficiency disease. It is characterized by hypogammaglobulinemia, increased predisposition to infections, autoimmunity, and cancer. This study was performed to evaluate the clinical and immunological features of a group of pediatric patients with CVID. The study population comprised 69 individuals with CVID diagnosed during childhood. The patients were followed up for a mean (SD) period of 5.2 (4.3) years. The mean diagnostic delay was 4.4 (3.6) years, which was significantly lower in patients who were diagnosed recently. Children were classified according to 5 clinical phenotypes: infections only (n=39), polyclonal lymphocytic infiltration (n=17), autoimmunity (n=12), malignancy (n=7), and enteropathy (n=3). Postdiagnosis survival (10-year) was 71%. The high percentages of pediatric patients with CVID in Iran may be due to the considerable prevalence of parental consanguinity in the region and an underlying genetic background.

  17. Long-Term Stewardship Baseline Report and Transition Guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kristofferson, Keith

    2001-11-01

    Long-term stewardship consists of those actions necessary to maintain and demonstrate continued protection of human health and the environment after facility cleanup is complete. As the Department of Energy’s (DOE) lead laboratory for environmental management programs, the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) administers DOE’s long-term stewardship science and technology efforts. The INEEL provides DOE with technical, and scientific expertise needed to oversee its long-term environmental management obligations complexwide. Long-term stewardship is administered and overseen by the Environmental Management Office of Science and Technology. The INEEL Long-Term Stewardship Program is currently developing the management structures and plans to complete INEEL-specific, long-term stewardship obligations. This guidance document (1) assists in ensuring that the program leads transition planning for the INEEL with respect to facility and site areas and (2) describes the classes and types of criteria and data required to initiate transition for areas and sites where the facility mission has ended and cleanup is complete. Additionally, this document summarizes current information on INEEL facilities, structures, and release sites likely to enter long-term stewardship at the completion of DOE’s cleanup mission. This document is not intended to function as a discrete checklist or local procedure to determine readiness to transition. It is an overarching document meant as guidance in implementing specific transition procedures. Several documents formed the foundation upon which this guidance was developed. Principal among these documents was the Long-Term Stewardship Draft Technical Baseline; A Report to Congress on Long-Term Stewardship, Volumes I and II; Infrastructure Long-Range Plan; Comprehensive Facility Land Use Plan; INEEL End-State Plan; and INEEL Institutional Plan.

  18. Detecting robust signals of interannual variability of gross primary productivity in Asia from multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models and long-term satellite-based vegetation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Ueyama, M.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Sasai, T.; Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Saigusa, N.

    2014-12-01

    Long term record of satellite-based terrestrial vegetation are important to evaluate terrestrial carbon cycle models. In this study, we demonstrate how multiple satellite observation can be used for evaluating past changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and detecting robust anomalies in terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia through our model-data synthesis analysis, Asia-MIP. We focused on the two different temporal coverages: long-term (30 years; 1982-2011) and decadal (10 years; 2001-2011; data intensive period) scales. We used a NOAA/AVHRR NDVI record for long-term analysis and multiple satellite data and products (e.g. Terra-MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION) as historical satellite data, and multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models (e.g. BEAMS, Biome-BGC, ORCHIDEE, SEIB-DGVM, and VISIT). As a results of long-term (30 years) trend analysis, satellite-based time-series data showed that approximately 40% of the area has experienced a significant increase in the NDVI, while only a few areas have experienced a significant decreasing trend over the last 30 years. The increases in the NDVI were dominant in the sub-continental regions of Siberia, East Asia, and India. Simulations using the terrestrial biosphere models also showed significant increases in GPP, similar to the results for the NDVI, in boreal and temperate regions. A modeled sensitivity analysis showed that the increases in GPP are explained by increased temperature and precipitation in Siberia. Precipitation, solar radiation, CO2fertilization and land cover changes are important factors in the tropical regions. However, the relative contributions of each factor to GPP changes are different among the models. Year-to-year variations of terrestrial GPP were overall consistently captured by the satellite data and terrestrial carbon cycle models if the anomalies are large (e.g. 2003 summer GPP anomalies in East Asia and 2002 spring GPP anomalies in mid to high latitudes). The behind mechanisms can be consistently

  19. Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danladi Ali

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter

  20. Long-term energy futures: the critical role of technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubler, A.

    1999-01-01

    The paper briefly reviews the results of a 5-year study conducted by IIASA jointly with the World Energy Council (WEC) on long term-energy perspectives. After summarizing the study's main findings, the paper addresses the crucial role of technological change in the evolution of long-term energy futures and in responding to key long-term uncertainties in the domains of energy demand growth, economics, as well as environmental protection. Based on most recent empirical and methodological findings, long-term dynamics of technological change portray a number of distinct features that need to be taken account of in technology and energy policy. First, success of innovation efforts and ultimate outcomes of technological are uncertain. Second, new, improved technologies are not a free good, but require continued dedicated efforts. Third, technological knowledge (as resulting from R and D and accumulation of experience, i.e. technological learning) exhibits characteristics of (uncertain) increasing returns. Forth, due to innovation - diffusion lags, technological interdependence, and infrastructure needs (network externalities), rates of change in large-scale energy systems are necessarily slow. This implies acting sooner rather than later as a contigency policy to respond to long-term social, economic and environmental uncertainties, most notably possible climate change. Rather than picking technological 'winners' the results of the IIASA-WEC scenario studies are seen most appropriate to guide technology and R and D portfolio analysis. Nonetheless, robust persistent patterns of technological change invariably occur across all scenarios. Examples of primising groups of technologies are given. The crucial importance of meeting long-energy demand in developing countries, assuring large-scale infrastructure investments, maintaining a strong and diversified R AND D protfolio, as well as to dvise new institutional mechnisms for technology development and diffusion for instance

  1. The effect of long-term changes in plant inputs on soil carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgiou, K.; Li, Z.; Torn, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest actively-cycling terrestrial reservoir of C and an integral component of thriving natural and managed ecosystems. C input interventions (e.g., litter removal or organic amendments) are common in managed landscapes and present an important decision for maintaining healthy soils in sustainable agriculture and forestry. Furthermore, climate and land-cover change can also affect the amount of plant C inputs that enter the soil through changes in plant productivity, allocation, and rooting depth. Yet, the processes that dictate the response of SOC to such changes in C inputs are poorly understood and inadequately represented in predictive models. Long-term litter manipulations are an invaluable resource for exploring key controls of SOC storage and validating model representations. Here we explore the response of SOC to long-term changes in plant C inputs across a range of biomes and soil types. We synthesize and analyze data from long-term litter manipulation field experiments, and focus our meta-analysis on changes to total SOC stocks, microbial biomass carbon, and mineral-associated (`protected') carbon pools and explore the relative contribution of above- versus below-ground C inputs. Our cross-site data comparison reveals that divergent SOC responses are observed between forest sites, particularly for treatments that increase C inputs to the soil. We explore trends among key variables (e.g., microbial biomass to SOC ratios) that inform soil C model representations. The assembled dataset is an important benchmark for evaluating process-based hypotheses and validating divergent model formulations.

  2. Long vs. short-term energy storage:sensitivity analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenung, Susan M. (Longitude 122 West, Inc., Menlo Park, CA); Hassenzahl, William V. (,Advanced Energy Analysis, Piedmont, CA)

    2007-07-01

    This report extends earlier work to characterize long-duration and short-duration energy storage technologies, primarily on the basis of life-cycle cost, and to investigate sensitivities to various input assumptions. Another technology--asymmetric lead-carbon capacitors--has also been added. Energy storage technologies are examined for three application categories--bulk energy storage, distributed generation, and power quality--with significant variations in discharge time and storage capacity. Sensitivity analyses include cost of electricity and natural gas, and system life, which impacts replacement costs and capital carrying charges. Results are presented in terms of annual cost, $/kW-yr. A major variable affecting system cost is hours of storage available for discharge.

  3. Long-Term Prognosis of Plantar Fasciitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Liselotte; Krogh, Thøger Persson; Ellingsen, Torkell

    2018-01-01

    , exercise-induced symptoms, bilateral heel pain, fascia thickness, and presence of a heel spur) could predict long-term outcomes, (3) to assess the long-term ultrasound (US) development in the fascia, and (4) to assess whether US-guided corticosteroid injections induce atrophy of the heel fat pad. Study....... The risk was significantly greater for women (P heel...... regardless of symptoms and had no impact on prognosis, and neither did the presence of a heel spur. Only 24% of asymptomatic patients had a normal fascia on US at long-term follow-up. A US-guided corticosteroid injection did not cause atrophy of the heel fat pad. Our observational study did not allow us...

  4. Long-term dependence in exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Karytinos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The extent to which exchange rates of four major currencies against the Greek Drachma exhibit long-term dependence is investigated using a R/S analysis testing framework. We show that both classic R/S analysis and the modified R/S statistic if enhanced by bootstrapping techniques can be proven very reliable tools to this end. Our findings support persistence and long-term dependence with non-periodic cycles for the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc series. In addition a noisy chaos explanation is favored over fractional Brownian motion. On the contrary, the US Dollar and British Pound were found to exhibit a much more random behavior and lack of any long-term structure.

  5. Solar cycle and long term variations of mesospheric ice layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Kiliani, Johannes; Baumgarten, Gerd; Fiedler, Jens; Gerding, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes, frequently called `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) or `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC), are considered to be sensitive indicators of long term changes in the middle atmosphere. We present a summary of long term observations from the ground and from satellites and compare with results from the LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model). LIMA nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and thereby the morphology of ice clouds. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this give s negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. As will be shown, these trends originate in the stratosphere. Solar cycle effects are expected in ice layers due to variations in background temperatures and water paper. We will present results from LIMA regarding solar cycle variations and compare with NLC observations at our lidar stations in Kühlungsborn (54°N) and ALOMAR (69°N), and also with satellite measurements.

  6. The investigation on the relationship between the problem of long-term loan and economic growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenjie Du

    2011-01-01

    Purpose-Since the reform and opening-up policy,the long-term problem of loans became more and more serious when China's economy maintained rapid growth.The purpose of this paper is to explore the profound causes of the medium-and long-term problem of loans and the relationship between it and economic growth.Design/methodology/approach-Using panel data for 28 provinces and cities of China during 1994-2005,this paper investigates the determinants on the maturity of bank credit using threshold panel data of Hansen.In addition,using dynamics panel data,this paper investigates the effects of the maturity structure of bank credit on economic growth.Findings-The drop of bank industry concentration tends to increase the supply of long-term loans.The raise of economic growth and the increase of industrialization degree promote the demand of long-term loans,significantly.Furthermore,the threshold effects of inflation exist.When the initial inflation is lower than 3.9 percent,the raise of inflation can increase the supply of long-term loans.When the initial inflation is higher than 3.9 percent,the raise of inflation can decrease the supply of long-term loans.The increase in the supply of long-term loans can promote the economic growth.Originality/value-The paper has two innovations:first,when studying the determinants on the maturity of bank credit,using the threshold panel approach takes account of the nonlinear adjustment of inflation;second,including the maturity of bank credit into the realm of financial development studies the relationship between this and economic growth.

  7. The impact of health behaviour on long term sickness absence: results from DWECS/DREAM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Karl B; Lund, Thomas; Labriola, Merete

    2007-01-01

    Long term sickness absence (LTSA) is a major public health problem. We examined the impact of four, potentially modifiable, health behaviours, such as smoking, alcohol consumption, leisure time physical activity, and the associated variable of body mass index on the risk of subsequent LTSA...

  8. Effects of Long-Term Ayahuasca Administration on Memory and Anxiety in Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favaro, Vanessa Manchim; Yonamine, Maurício; Soares, Juliana Carlota Kramer; Oliveira, Maria Gabriela Menezes

    2015-01-01

    Ayahuasca is a hallucinogenic beverage that combines the action of the 5-HT2A/2C agonist N,N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT) from Psychotria viridis with the monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOIs) induced by beta-carbonyls from Banisteriopsis caapi. Previous investigations have highlighted the involvement of ayahuasca with the activation of brain regions known to be involved with episodic memory, contextual associations and emotional processing after ayahuasca ingestion. Moreover long term users show better performance in neuropsychological tests when tested in off-drug condition. This study evaluated the effects of long-term administration of ayahuasca on Morris water maze (MWM), fear conditioning and elevated plus maze (EPM) performance in rats. Behavior tests started 48h after the end of treatment. Freeze-dried ayahuasca doses of 120, 240 and 480 mg/kg were used, with water as the control. Long-term administration consisted of a daily oral dose for 30 days by gavage. The behavioral data indicated that long-term ayahuasca administration did not affect the performance of animals in MWM and EPM tasks. However the dose of 120 mg/kg increased the contextual conditioned fear response for both background and foreground fear conditioning. The tone conditioned response was not affected after long-term administration. In addition, the increase in the contextual fear response was maintained during the repeated sessions several weeks after training. Taken together, these data showed that long-term ayahuasca administration in rats can interfere with the contextual association of emotional events, which is in agreement with the fact that the beverage activates brain areas related to these processes.

  9. Effects of Long-Term Ayahuasca Administration on Memory and Anxiety in Rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Manchim Favaro

    Full Text Available Ayahuasca is a hallucinogenic beverage that combines the action of the 5-HT2A/2C agonist N,N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT from Psychotria viridis with the monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOIs induced by beta-carbonyls from Banisteriopsis caapi. Previous investigations have highlighted the involvement of ayahuasca with the activation of brain regions known to be involved with episodic memory, contextual associations and emotional processing after ayahuasca ingestion. Moreover long term users show better performance in neuropsychological tests when tested in off-drug condition. This study evaluated the effects of long-term administration of ayahuasca on Morris water maze (MWM, fear conditioning and elevated plus maze (EPM performance in rats. Behavior tests started 48h after the end of treatment. Freeze-dried ayahuasca doses of 120, 240 and 480 mg/kg were used, with water as the control. Long-term administration consisted of a daily oral dose for 30 days by gavage. The behavioral data indicated that long-term ayahuasca administration did not affect the performance of animals in MWM and EPM tasks. However the dose of 120 mg/kg increased the contextual conditioned fear response for both background and foreground fear conditioning. The tone conditioned response was not affected after long-term administration. In addition, the increase in the contextual fear response was maintained during the repeated sessions several weeks after training. Taken together, these data showed that long-term ayahuasca administration in rats can interfere with the contextual association of emotional events, which is in agreement with the fact that the beverage activates brain areas related to these processes.

  10. Short-term versus long-term contracting for uranium enrichment services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudy, G.P.

    1990-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (US DOE) is the world's largest and most experienced supplier of uranium enrichment services. Through the late 1970s and early 1980s, emerging market forces transformed what was once a monopoly into a highly competitive industry. In the early 1980's the DOE lost market share. But as we enter the 1990s, new market forces have emerged. The US DOE believes a responsible balance between long-term and short-term contracting will be the key to success and the key to assuring the long-term health and reliability of the nuclear fuel industry. The US DOE intends to be in this nuclear business for a long time and will continue to offer reliable and responsive services second to none

  11. The swan song in context: long-time-scale X-ray variability of NGC 4051

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uttley, P.; McHardy, I. M.; Papadakis, I. E.; Guainazzi, M.; Fruscione, A.

    1999-07-01

    On 1998 May 9-11, the highly variable, low-luminosity Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4051 was observed in an unusual low-flux state by BeppoSAX, RXTE and EUVE. We present fits of the 4-15keV RXTE spectrum and BeppoSAX MECS spectrum obtained during this observation, which are consistent with the interpretation that the source had switched off, leaving only the spectrum of pure reflection from distant cold matter. We place this result in context by showing the X-ray light curve of NGC 4051 obtained by our RXTE monitoring campaign over the past two and a half years, which shows that the low state lasted for ~150d before the May observations (implying that the reflecting material is >10^17cm from the continuum source) and forms part of a light curve showing distinct variations in long-term average flux over time-scales > months. We show that the long-time-scale component to X-ray variability is intrinsic to the primary continuum and is probably distinct from the variability at shorter time-scales. The long-time-scale component to variability maybe associated with variations in the accretion flow of matter on to the central black hole. As the source approaches the low state, the variability process becomes non-linear. NGC 4051 may represent a microcosm of all X-ray variability in radio-quiet active galactic nuclei (AGNs), displaying in a few years a variety of flux states and variability properties which more luminous AGNs may pass through on time-scales of decades to thousands of years.

  12. Long-term spectroscopic monitoring of the Luminous Blue Variable AG Carinae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, O.; Jankovics, I.; Kovács, J.; Wolf, B.; Schmutz, W.; Kaufer, A.; Rivinius, Th.; Szeifert, Th.

    2001-08-01

    We have extensively monitored the Luminous Blue Variable AG Car (HD 94910) spectroscopically. Our data cover the years 1989 to 1999. In this period, the star underwent almost a full S Dor cycle from visual minimum to maximum and back. Over several seasons, up to four months of almost daily spectra are available. Our data cover most of the visual spectral range with a high spectral resolution (lambda /Delta lambda ~ 20 000). This allows us to investigate the variability in many lines on time scales from days to years. The strongest variability occurs on a time scale of years. Qualitatively, the variations can be understood as changes of the effective temperature and radius, which are in phase with the optical light curve. Quantitatively, there are several interesting deviations from this behaviour, however. The Balmer lines show P Cygni profiles and have their maximum strength (both in equivalent width and line flux) after the peak of the optical light curve, at the descending branch of the light curve. The line-width during maximum phase is smaller than during minimum, but it has a local maximum close to the peak of the visual light curve. We derive mass-loss rates over the cycle from the Hα line and find the highest mass loss rates (log dot {M}/({M}_sun yr-1) ~ -3.8, about a factor of five higher than in the minimum, where we find log dot {M}/({M}_sun yr-1) ~ -4.5) after the visual maximum. Line-splitting is very commonly observed, especially on the rise to maximum and on the descending branch from maximum. The components are very long-lived (years) and are probably unrelated to similar-looking line-splitting events in normal supergiants. Small apparent accelerations of the components are observed. The change in radial velocity could be due to successive narrowing of the components, with the absorption disappearing at small expansion velocities first. In general, the line-splitting is more likely the result of missing absorption at intermediate velocities than of

  13. A trial epidemiological study on health effects of long term and low level radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattori, Yoshiaki; Maeda, Kazuho

    1980-01-01

    As a trial evaluation of applicability of multivariate model in an analysis of health effects of radiation workers, the multiple logistic function method was applied to the data of occupational exposure record and long term absence record obtained from 593 employees of two institutions both of which practice R and D relating nuclear power. In order to estimate parameters of multiple logistic function by maximum likelihood method, followings were defined as variables: age, length of employment and cumulative exposure dose of radiation as independent variables, and the fact that whether the individual worker had the experience of absence lasting more than a week or not as a dependent variable. As the results, due to shortage of amount of data, only the age of workers shows a significant relationship with the absence data, the other variables do not have any significant results in the association with absence. In this preliminary trial, the applicability of multiple logistic function model in risk estimation of long term occupational exposure was not clearly demonstrated because of data shortage. To testify the applicability, further investigations will be needed, accumulating plenty of data concerning exposure and health effects. (author)

  14. Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen

    2017-11-01

    The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

  15. Long-term mortality and causes of death associated with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gotland, N; Uhre, M L; Mejer, N

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Data describing long-term mortality in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) is scarce. This study investigated risk factors, causes of death and temporal trends in long-term mortality associated with SAB. METHODS: Nationwide population-based matched cohort study...... respiratory disease, nervous system disease, unknown causes, psychiatric disorders, cardiovascular disease and senility. Over time, rates of death decreased or were stable for all disease categories except for musculoskeletal and skin disease where a trend towards an increase was seen. CONCLUSION: Long......-term mortality after SAB was high but decreased over time. SAB cases were more likely to die of eight specific causes of death and less likely to die of five other causes of death compared to controls. Causes of death decreased for most disease categories. Risk factors associated with long-term mortality were...

  16. Marginal Propensity to Consume in Hungary: The long-term versus Short-term Challenges to Policy Makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Write

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study uses Hungarian quarterly data from the International Monetary Fund to estimate a distributed lag model whose coefficients allow derivation of the short-run and long-run marginal propensities to consume.  MPCs are main factors determining the consumption, investment, government spending, and export and import multipliers of the economy.  Hungary's economy has stagnated and its policy makers are exploring new ways to manage its economy.  Our model reveals that the numerical value of Hungarian short-run marginal propensity to consume (MPC is 0.4081181655 and the long-run MPC is 0.9458619.  These results are consistent with the corresponding figures in emerging and advanced economies.  These derived MPCs suggest that Hungarian economic policy makers should use fiscal instruments to bring these macroeconomic variables back to their long-term trend effectively

  17. Structured medium and long chain triglycerides show short-term increases in fat oxidation, but no changes in adiposity in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roynette, Catherine E; Rudkowska, Iwona; Nakhasi, Dilip K; Jones, Peter J H

    2008-05-01

    Medium chain triglycerides (MCT) have been suggested as modulators of human energy expenditure (EE) and thus may influence total and regional body fat distribution. To investigate in overweight men the effects of structured medium and long chain triglycerides on EE, substrate oxidation and body adiposity, compared to extra virgin olive oil (OO). In a 6 week single-blind crossover study, 23 overweight men were randomly assigned to consume a standard high-fat diet of which 75% total fat was provided as either structured medium and long chain triglycerides referred to as structured oil (StO), or OO. EE and body composition were measured using indirect calorimetry and magnetic resonance imaging, respectively, at weeks 1 and 6 of each phase. Body weight decreased (pstructured medium and long chain triglyceride oil increases short-term fat oxidation but fails to modulate body weight or adiposity through a change in EE.

  18. Modeling Long Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila Alejandra Puntel

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn (Zea mays L. can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM to simulate corn and soybean (Glycine max L. yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha-1 applied to corn. Our objectives were to: a quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; b compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and c utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simultaneously simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration, which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration. For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-yr mean differences in EONR’s were within the historical N rate error range (40 to 50 kg N ha-1. However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching with precipitation. We concluded that long term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add

  19. Modeling Long-Term Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Rate and Crop Rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Dietzel, Ranae; Poffenbarger, Hanna; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; Thorburn, Peter; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

    2016-01-01

    Improved prediction of optimal N fertilizer rates for corn ( Zea mays L. ) can reduce N losses and increase profits. We tested the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate corn and soybean ( Glycine max L. ) yields, the economic optimum N rate (EONR) using a 16-year field-experiment dataset from central Iowa, USA that included two crop sequences (continuous corn and soybean-corn) and five N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, 201, and 268 kg N ha -1 ) applied to corn. Our objectives were to: (a) quantify model prediction accuracy before and after calibration, and report calibration steps; (b) compare crop model-based techniques in estimating optimal N rate for corn; and (c) utilize the calibrated model to explain factors causing year to year variability in yield and optimal N. Results indicated that the model simulated well long-term crop yields response to N (relative root mean square error, RRMSE of 19.6% before and 12.3% after calibration), which provided strong evidence that important soil and crop processes were accounted for in the model. The prediction of EONR was more complex and had greater uncertainty than the prediction of crop yield (RRMSE of 44.5% before and 36.6% after calibration). For long-term site mean EONR predictions, both calibrated and uncalibrated versions can be used as the 16-year mean differences in EONR's were within the historical N rate error range (40-50 kg N ha -1 ). However, for accurate year-by-year simulation of EONR the calibrated version should be used. Model analysis revealed that higher EONR values in years with above normal spring precipitation were caused by an exponential increase in N loss (denitrification and leaching) with precipitation. We concluded that long-term experimental data were valuable in testing and refining APSIM predictions. The model can be used as a tool to assist N management guidelines in the US Midwest and we identified five avenues on how the model can add value toward

  20. Long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean surface layer (by space data)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevyrnogov, A.; Vysotskaya, G.

    To preserve the biosphere and to use it efficiently, it is necessary to gain a deep insight into the dynamics of the primary production process on our planet. Variability of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean is one of the most important components of this process. These investigations are, however, very labor-consuming, because of the difficulties related to the accessibility of the water surface and its large size. In this work long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration in the surface layer of the ocean have been analyzed on the basis of the CZCS data for 7.5 years from 1979 to 1986 and the SeaWiFS data from 1997 to 2004. It has been shown that the average chlorophyll concentration calculated in all investigated areas varies moderately. However, when analyzing spatially local trends, the areas have been detected that have significant rise and fall of chlorophyll concentrations. Some interesting features of the long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration have been found. The opposite directions of long-term trends (essential increase or decrease) cannot be explained only by large-scale hydrological phenomena in the ocean (currents, upwellings, etc.). The measured chlorophyll concentration results from the balance between production and destruction processes. Which process dominates is determined by various hydrophysical, hydrobiological, and climatic processes, leading to sharp rises or falls of the concentration. It is important to estimate the scale of the areas in which this or that process dominates. Therefore, the study addresses not only the dynamics of the mean value but also the dynamics of the areas in which the dominance of certain factors has led to a sharp fall or rise in chlorophyll concentration. Thus, the obtained results can be used to estimate long-term changes in the ocean biota.

  1. Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

    This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

  2. Balloon dilatation of tuberculous bronchial stenosis: immediate and long term effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yoon; Kwak, Byung Kook; Kang, Ho Yeong; Kim, Tae Hoon; Kim, Soo Rhan; Park, Hyun Sun; Lee, Shin Hyung; Lee, Chang Joon

    1997-01-01

    To evaluate the long-term immediate effects of balloon dilatation of the tuberculous bronchial stenosis. Twenty-three women with tuberculous bronchial stenosis (19, left main bronchus ; 4, right main bronchus) underwent balloon dilatation (13 bronchoscopically guided ; 10 fluoroscopically guided). Immediate (n=23) and long-term follow-up (mean, 17.2 months; range, 1month-6years 3months ; n=20) assessments focused on changes in the results of the pulmonary function test (PFT). An increase in FVC or FEVI of more than 10% after the procedure was considered effective. In all patients, any complications were evaluated. Balloon dilatation was effective at immediate follow-up in 69.5% of patients(16/23) and in 75.0%(15/20) at long-term follow-up. Bronchoscopically and fluoroscopically-guided balloon dilatation proved effective in 61.5%(8/13) and 80.0% of patients(8/10) on immediate follow-up respectively, but in 90.0%(9/10) and 60.0%(6/10) on long term follow-up respectively. Balloon dilatation was effective in the active(n 10) and inactive(n = 13) stage of tuberculous bronchitis in 80.0%(8/10) and 61.5% of cases(8/13) on immediate follow-up respectively, but in 66.6%(6/9) and 81.8%(9/11) on long term follow-up study, respectively. On immediate follow-up, balloon dilatation of tubular bronchial stenosis was more effective in the active than in the inactive stage, but on long-term follow-up was less effective ; long-term improvement in the inactive stage was, however, well-maintained

  3. Super long-term creep tests of advanced HP and IP rotor steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchizhik, A A [The Polzunov Central Boiler and Turbine Institute, Department the Fatigue Life of Materials for Power Plans Equipment, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    1999-12-31

    A creep model has been developed for predicting the long-term creep behavior, in excess of 200,000 h for advanced materials.The new creep theory is based on a continuum microdamage model and is used to calculate the fields of stress and strain and wedge and cavities damage in critical components of steam and gas turbines. The application of this new model increases the reliability and service life of modern turbines. The accuracy of the model to predict long - term creep behavior, creep ductility was verified using the data bank of super long-term creep tests of advanced materials. (orig.) 12 refs.

  4. Super long-term creep tests of advanced HP and IP rotor steels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchizhik, A.A. [The Polzunov Central Boiler and Turbine Institute, Department the Fatigue Life of Materials for Power Plans Equipment, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    1998-12-31

    A creep model has been developed for predicting the long-term creep behavior, in excess of 200,000 h for advanced materials.The new creep theory is based on a continuum microdamage model and is used to calculate the fields of stress and strain and wedge and cavities damage in critical components of steam and gas turbines. The application of this new model increases the reliability and service life of modern turbines. The accuracy of the model to predict long - term creep behavior, creep ductility was verified using the data bank of super long-term creep tests of advanced materials. (orig.) 12 refs.

  5. Long term monitoring system integrated in an elevational gradient in NW Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carilla, J.; Malizia, A.; Osinaga, O.; Blundo, C.; Grau, R.; Malizia, L.; Aráoz, E.

    2013-05-01

    composition over time, despite different previous land use. Floristic changes are also reflected in structural changes, showing an increasing trend in biomass in the last 15 years for most of the plots. Exotic tree species are expanding their distribution (e.g. Ligustrum lucidum) and have a strong influence on the structure and dynamics of some secondary forests. 2) High Andean vegetation diversity decrease with altitude, while several functional groups cover increase with temperature. 3) There is a clear association between lake fluctuations, ecosystem productivity and regional climatic patterns. The long term record provided by dendrochronology showed that plant productivity of the last decades is the lowest in the last 180 years, with a consistent drying trend in the last years. We are generating longer temporal series of meteorological data and biological ecosystems measurements; this will help to differentiate between the effect of climate change, land use change and natural ecosystems variability, to understand the way vegetation and ecosystems response to these changes.

  6. Long-term increase of fat mass after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limitation of physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernersson, Asa; Nystrom, Fredrik H; Lindström, Torbjörn

    2010-08-25

    A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6) years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day. Body composition was measured by Dual energy x-ray (DXA) at baseline, after the intervention and after 12 months. A matched control group was also included. ANOVA and Student's paired and unpaired t-test were used. During the intervention body weight increased with 6.4 (2.8) kg and DXA measurements showed increases of both fat free mass and fat mass. Six months after the intervention the subjects had lost most of the weight gain, - 4.7 (3.1) kg. Twelve months after the intervention body weight had increased with 1.5 (2.4) kg compared to baseline (p = 0.018). DXA measurements at 12 months showed unchanged fat free mass compared to baseline but higher fat mass, + 1.4 (1.9) kg (p = 0.01). After 2.5 years the increase of body weight was 3.1 (4.0) kg (p = 0.01) while there was no change in controls compared to baseline, + 0.1(2.5) kg (p = 0.88). One year after a short term intervention with increased fast food based hyper-alimentation there was an increase of fat mass but unchanged fat free mass. As the change of fat mass was larger than expected from prospective epidemiological studies and as there was no increase of body weight in controls it raises the issue whether there is a long-term effect to increase fat mass of a short period of hyper-alimentation.

  7. Long-term increase of fat mass after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limitation of physical activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernersson Åsa

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A sedentary lifestyle and increased consumption of energy dense food have become more common in many parts of the world. The aim of this study was to study long term effects on body composition after a four week intervention with fast food based hyper-alimentation and limited physical activity in young normal weight subjects. Methods Eighteen subjects, mean age 26 (6.6 years, increased their energy intake with in average 70% and physical activity were not to exceed 5000 steps/day. Body composition was measured by Dual energy x-ray (DXA at baseline, after the intervention and after 12 months. A matched control group was also included. ANOVA and Student's paired and unpaired t-test were used. Results During the intervention body weight increased with 6.4 (2.8 kg and DXA measurements showed increases of both fat free mass and fat mass. Six months after the intervention the subjects had lost most of the weight gain, - 4.7 (3.1 kg. Twelve months after the intervention body weight had increased with 1.5 (2.4 kg compared to baseline (p = 0.018. DXA measurements at 12 months showed unchanged fat free mass compared to baseline but higher fat mass, + 1.4 (1.9 kg (p = 0.01. After 2.5 years the increase of body weight was 3.1 (4.0 kg (p = 0.01 while there was no change in controls compared to baseline, + 0.1(2.5 kg (p = 0.88. Conclusion One year after a short term intervention with increased fast food based hyper-alimentation there was an increase of fat mass but unchanged fat free mass. As the change of fat mass was larger than expected from prospective epidemiological studies and as there was no increase of body weight in controls it raises the issue whether there is a long-term effect to increase fat mass of a short period of hyper-alimentation.

  8. Long-term health benefits of appetite suppressants remain unproven

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco José Roma Paumgartten

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Because of the increasing prevalence of obesity, prevention and treatment of overweight has become a major public health concern. In addition to diet and exercise, drugs are needed for patients who failed to lose weight with behavioral treatment. The current article aimed to summarize recent concerns on the safety and efficacy of appetite suppressants. Several appetite suppressants have been banned for safety reasons. In 2010, sibutramine was withdrawn from the market because a long-term study showed it increased the risks of cardiovascular events. So far no study with a sufficiently large sample size has demonstrated that appetite suppressants can reduce morbidity and mortality associated with overweight. The withdrawal of sibutramine highlights that guidelines for the evaluation of weight control drugs must be more stringent, and studies on their long-term health benefits are needed prior to their marketing.

  9. Optogenetic long-term manipulation of behavior and animal development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Schultheis

    Full Text Available Channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2 is widely used for rapid photodepolarization of neurons, yet, as it requires high-intensity blue light for activation, it is not suited for long-term in vivo applications, e.g. for manipulations of behavior, or photoactivation of neurons during development. We used "slow" ChR2 variants with mutations in the C128 residue, that exhibit delayed off-kinetics and increased light sensitivity in Caenorhabditis elegans. Following a 1 s light pulse, we could photodepolarize neurons and muscles for minutes (and with repeated brief stimulation, up to days with low-intensity light. Photoactivation of ChR2(C128S in command interneurons elicited long-lasting alterations in locomotion. Finally, we could optically induce profound changes in animal development: Long-term photoactivation of ASJ neurons, which regulate larval growth, bypassed the constitutive entry into the "dauer" larval state in daf-11 mutants. These lack a guanylyl cyclase, which possibly renders ASJ neurons hyperpolarized. Furthermore, photostimulated ASJ neurons could acutely trigger dauer-exit. Thus, slow ChR2s can be employed to long-term photoactivate behavior and to trigger alternative animal development.

  10. Birds choose long-term partners years before breeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Mueller, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Pair bonds can provide social benefits to long-term monogamous species alongside their benefits for reproduction. However, little is known about when these bonds form, in particular how long they are present before breeding. Previous studies of pair formation in long-term monogamous birds have been rather data-limited, but for many migratory birds they report pair formation on the wintering grounds. We provide the first systematic investigation of prebreeding association patterns of long-term monogamous pairs by examining entire life histories based on tracking data of migratory whooping cranes, Grus americana. We found that a substantial portion (62%) of breeding pairs started associating at least 12 months before first breeding, with 16 of 58 breeding pairs beginning to associate over 2 years before first breeding. For most pairs, these associations with future breeding partners also became unique and distinguishable from association patterns with nonpartner individuals 12 months before first breeding. In addition, 60% of pair associations began before at least one partner had reached nominal sexual maturity. Most pairs began associating in the late spring upon arrival at the summer grounds, while associations beginning at other times of the year were rare. Patterns in the associations of pairs prior to breeding can point to the potential benefits of prebreeding relationships, for instance providing support in competitive interactions or increasing partner familiarity.

  11. Long term wet spent nuclear fuel storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-04-01

    The meeting showed that there is continuing confidence in the use of wet storage for spent nuclear fuel and that long-term wet storage of fuel clad in zirconium alloys can be readily achieved. The importance of maintaining good water chemistry has been identified. The long-term wet storage behaviour of sensitized stainless steel clad fuel involves, as yet, some uncertainties. However, great reliance will be placed on long-term wet storage of spent fuel into the future. The following topics were treated to some extent: Oxidation of the external surface of fuel clad, rod consolidation, radiation protection, optimum methods of treating spent fuel storage water, physical radiation effects, and the behaviour of spent fuel assemblies of long-term wet storage conditions. A number of papers on national experience are included

  12. Long-Term Collections

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    45 years helping in developing countries! CERN personnel have been helping the least fortunate people on the planet since 1971. How? With the Long-Term Collections! Dear Colleagues, The Staff Association’s Long-Term Collections (LTC) Committee is delighted to share this important milestone in the life of our Laboratory with you. Indeed, whilst the name of CERN is known worldwide for scientific discoveries, it also shines in the many humanitarian projects which have been supported by the LTC since 1971. Several schools and clinics, far and wide, carry its logo... Over the past 45 years, 74 projects have been supported (9 of which are still ongoing). This all came from a group of colleagues who wanted to share a little of what life offered them here at CERN, in this haven of mutual understanding, peace and security, with those who were less fortunate elsewhere. Thus, the LTC were born... Since then, we have worked as a team to maintain the dream of these visionaries, with the help of regular donat...

  13. Long-Term Collection

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2016-01-01

    Dear Colleagues, As previously announced in Echo (No. 254), your delegates took action to draw attention to the projects of the Long-Term Collections (LTC), the humanitarian body of the CERN Staff Association. On Tuesday, 11 October, at noon, small Z-Cards were widely distributed at the entrances of CERN restaurants and we thank you all for your interest. We hope to have achieved an important part of our goal, which was to inform you, convince you and find new supporters among you. We will find out in the next few days! An exhibition of the LTC was also set up in the Main Building for the entire week. The Staff Association wants to celebrate the occasion of the Long-Term Collection’s 45th anniversary at CERN because, ever since 1971, CERN personnel have showed great support in helping the least fortunate people on the planet in a variety of ways according to their needs. On a regular basis, joint fundraising appeals are made with the Directorate to help the victims of natural disasters around th...

  14. Seasonal, interannual, and long-term variabilities in biomass burning activity over South Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, P; Naja, M; Kumar, R; Chandola, H C

    2016-03-01

    The seasonal, interannual, and long-term variations in biomass burning activity and related emissions are not well studied over South Asia. In this regard, active fire location retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS Terra, and tropospheric column NO2 from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are used to understand the effects of biomass burning on the tropospheric pollution loadings over South Asia during 2003-2013. Biomass burning emission estimates from Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) and Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) are also used to quantify uncertainties and regional discrepancies in the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and black carbon (BC) due to biomass burning in South Asia. In the Asian continent, the frequency of fire activity is highest over Southeast Asia, followed by South Asia and East Asia. The biomass burning activity in South Asia shows a distinct seasonal cycle that peaks during February-May with some differences among four (north, central, northeast, and south) regions in India. The annual biomass burning activity in north, central, and south regions shows an increasing tendency, particularly after 2008, while a decrease is seen in northeast region during 2003-2013. The increase in fire counts over the north and central regions contributes 24 % of the net enhancement in fire counts over South Asia. MODIS AOD and OMI tropospheric column NO2 retrievals are classified into high and low fire activity periods and show that biomass burning leads to significant enhancement in tropospheric pollution loading over both the cropland and forest regions. The enhancement is much higher (110-176 %) over the forest region compared to the cropland (34-62 %) region. Further efforts are required to understand the implications of biomass burning on the regional air quality and climate of South Asia.

  15. Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goshe, Lisa R.; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J.; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M.; Bailey, Rhonda

    2017-01-01

    Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp’s ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the “rapprochement” skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp’s ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends. PMID:28333937

  16. The impact of health behaviour on long term sickness absence : Results from DWECS/DREAM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christensen, Karl B.; Lund, Thomas; Labriola, Merete; Bultmann, Ute; Villadsen, Ebbe

    Long term sickness absence (LTSA) is a major public health problem. We examined the impact of four, potentially modifiable, health behaviours, such as smoking, alcohol consumption, leisure time physical activity, and the associated variable of body mass index on the risk of subsequent LTSA. This was

  17. Characterization of EIAV LTR variability and compartmentalization in various reservoir tissues of long-term inapparent carrier ponies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reis, Jenner K.P.; Craigo, Jodi K.; Cook, Sheila J.; Issel, Charles J.; Montelaro, Ronald C.

    2003-01-01

    Dynamic genomic variation resulting in changes in envelope antigenicity has been established as a fundamental mechanism of persistence by equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV), as observed with other lentiviruses, including HIV-1. In addition to the reported changes in envelope sequences, however, certain studies indicate the viral LTR as a second variable EIAV gene, with the enhancer region being designated as hypervariable. These observations have lead to the suggestion that LTR variation may alter viral replication properties to optimize to the microenvironment of particular tissue reservoirs. To test this hypothesis directly, we examined the population of LTR quasispecies contained in various tissues of two inapparent carrier ponies experimentally infected with a reference EIAV biological clone for 18 months. The results of these studies demonstrated that the EIAV LTR is in fact highly conserved with respect to the infecting LTR species after 1.5 years of persistent infection and regardless of the tissue reservoir. Thus, these comprehensive analyses demonstrate for the first time that the EIAV LTR is highly conserved during long-term persistent infection and that the observed variations in viral LTR are associated more with in vitro adaptation to replication in cultured cells rather than in vivo replication in natural target cells

  18. Changing incentives for long-term gas contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohi, D.R.

    1992-01-01

    There is much concern about the absence of long-term gas contracts with fixed price and quantity conditions, which until recent years was the standard way of doing business in the gas industry. These types of contracts performed a valuable service in the development of the gas industry, and there comparative absence today is sometimes thought to be one reason for the current malaise in the industry. One hears the argument that there must be some kind of 'market failure' that prevents buyers and sellers from entering into these long term arrangements, and recent changes in state and federal regulations are often cited as the cause of the problem. The purpose of the author's remarks is to argue that what is taken as a breakdown in the market may be simply a reaction to a decline in economic incentives to enter into long-term contracts with rigid price and quantity terms. This is, in other words, simply one more aspect of change in the gas business that Frank Heintz referred to in his opening remarks this morning. The author starts by giving a brief description of the motives for engaging in long-term contracts, and then describes how incentives to use long-term contracts have declined for both gas buyers and gas sellers. He concludes that the decline in the use of long-term contracts is not cause for regulatory concern, but a result of the continuing transformation of the gas business to one that more closely resembles other commodity markets

  19. Long-term cortisol levels measured in scalp hair of obese patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wester, Vincent L; Staufenbiel, Sabine M; Veldhorst, Margriet A B; Visser, Jenny A; Manenschijn, Laura; Koper, Jan W; Klessens-Godfroy, Francoise J M; van den Akker, Erica L T; van Rossum, Elisabeth F C

    2014-09-01

    In obese subjects a relatively high cortisol output in urine has been observed compared to nonobese individuals. However, cortisol levels in blood, saliva, and urine in association with obesity have been inconsistent across studies, possibly due to the high variability of systemic cortisol levels. Cortisol levels measured in scalp hair provide a marker for long-term cortisol exposure, and have been associated with cardiovascular disease in an elderly population and to disease course in Cushing's disease. We aimed to compare hair cortisol levels between obese patients and nonobese controls. Hair cortisol levels of 47 obese patients (median BMI 38.8, range 31.1-65.8), 41 overweight, and 87 normal-weight subjects using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) were measured. Obese patients had higher hair cortisol levels than overweight and normal weight subjects (respectively 30.8 vs 8.5 and 8.4 pg/mg hair, P cortisol levels was found between normal weight and overweight subjects. Our results suggest a higher long-term cortisol exposure in obese patients, which may contribute to cardiovascular disease risk. Future research will determine whether long-term cortisol levels provide a novel treatment target in the management of cardiovascular disease risk in obesity. © 2014 The Obesity Society.

  20. A Quantitative Method for Long-Term Water Erosion Impacts on Productivity with a Lack of Field Experiments: A Case Study in Huaihe Watershed, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Degen Lin

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Water erosion causes reduced farmland productivity, and with a longer period of cultivation, agricultural productivity becomes increasingly vulnerable. The vulnerability of farmland productivity needs assessment due to long-term water erosion. The key to quantitative assessment is to propose a quantitative method with water loss scenarios to calculate productivity losses due to long-term water erosion. This study uses the agricultural policy environmental extender (APEX model and the global hydrological watershed unit and selects the Huaihe River watershed as a case study to describe the methodology. An erosion-variable control method considering soil and water conservation measure scenarios was used to study the relationship between long-term erosion and productivity losses and to fit with 3D surface (to come up with three elements, which are time, the cumulative amount of water erosion and productivity losses to measure long-term water erosion. Results showed that: (1 the 3D surfaces fit significantly well; fitting by the 3D surface can more accurately reflect the impact of long-term water erosion on productivity than fitting by the 2D curve (to come up with two elements, which are water erosion and productivity losses; (2 the cumulative loss surface can reflect differences in productivity loss caused by long-term water erosion.

  1. Regional cerebral blood flow in Alzheimer's disease. Comparison between short and long-term donepezil therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ushijima, Yo; Okuyama, Chio; Kubota, Takao; Nakai, Takako; Nishimura, Tsunehiko; Mori, Satoru

    2006-01-01

    Treatment with donepezil improves cognitive function of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) when compared to a placebo-controlled group. The purpose of this study was to investigate changes in regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) of AD patients in short-term and long-term treatment with donepezil. rCBF was measured by N-isopropyl-p- 123 I-iodoamphetamine (IMP) autoradiography method. CBF measurements were performed in 17 AD patients before treatment and after 3 months (short-term therapy) and 1 year (long-term therapy). Regions of interest were set at cerebral cortex and cerebellar hemisphere. We used absolute CBF and relative CBF expressed as ratio to cerebellar CBF. Significant increases in relative rCBF were noted in the frontal, parietal and temporal lobes at the end of short-term therapy. rCBF was decreased after the long-term therapy, whereas rCBF was still increased to a slight extent, as compared with the pre-treatment levels. Absolute rCBF showed minimal change and a tendency to decline. Relative rCBF significantly increased in the short-term donepezil therapy, while following the long-term therapy, rCBF decreased to the pre-treatment level. (author)

  2. The Long-Term Economic Impact of in Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreca, Alan I.

    2010-01-01

    I use an instrumental-variables identification strategy and historical data from the United States to estimate the long-term economic impact of in utero and postnatal exposure to malaria. My research design matches adults in th