ANOTHER "LETHAL TRIAD"-RISK FACTORS FOR VIOLENT INJURY AND LONG-TERM MORTALITY AMONG ADULT VICTIMS OF VIOLENT INJURY.

Science.gov (United States)

Laytin, Adam D; Shumway, Martha; Boccellari, Alicia; Juillard, Catherine J; Dicker, Rochelle A

2018-04-14

Mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty are risk factors for violent injury, and violent injury is a risk factor for early mortality that can be attenuated through hospital-based violence intervention programs. Most of these programs focus on victims under the age of 30 years. Little is known about risk factors or long-term mortality among older victims of violent injury. To explore the prevalence of risk factors for violent injury among younger (age < 30 years) and older (age 30 ≥ years) victims of violent injury, to determine the long-term mortality rates in these age groups, and to explore the association between risk factors for violent injury and long-term mortality. Adults with violent injuries were enrolled between 2001 and 2004. Demographic and injury data were recorded on enrollment. Ten-year mortality rates were measured. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression were used to compare older and younger subjects. Among 541 subjects, 70% were over age 30. The overall 10-year mortality rate was 15%, and was much higher than in the age-matched general population in both age groups. Risk factors for violent injury including mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty were prevalent, especially among older subjects, and were each independently associated with increased risk of long-term mortality. Mental illness, substance abuse, and poverty constitute a "lethal triad" that is associated with an increased risk of long-term mortality among victims of violent injury, including both younger adults and those over age 30 years. Both groups may benefit from targeted risk-reduction efforts. Emergency department visits offer an invaluable opportunity to engage these vulnerable patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Approaches for predicting long-term sickness absence. Re: Schouten et al. "Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index".

Science.gov (United States)

van Amelsvoort, Ludovic Gpm; Jansen, Nicole W H; Kant, I Jmert

2015-05-01

We read with much interest the article of Schouten et al (1) on identifying workers with a high risk for future long-term sickness absence using the Work Ability Index (WAI). The ability to identify high-risk workers might facilitate targeted interventions for such workers and, consequently, can reduce sickness absence levels and improve workers' health. Earlier studies by both Tamela et al (2), Kant et al (3), and Lexis et al (4) have demonstrated that such an approach, based on the identification of high-risk workers and a subsequent intervention, can be effectively applied in practice to reduce sickness absence significantly. The reason for our letter on Schouten et al's article is twofold. First, by including workers already on sick leave in a study predicting long-term sick leave will result in an overestimation of the predictive properties of the instrument and biased predictors, especially when also the outcome of interest is included as a factor in the prediction model. Second, we object to the use of the term "screening" when subjects with the condition screened for are included in the study. Reinforced by the inclusion of sickness absence in the prediction model, including workers already on sick leave will shift the focus of the study findings towards the prediction of (re)current sickness absence and workers with a below-average return-to-work rate, rather than the identification of workers at high risk for the onset of future long-term sickness absence. The possibilities for prevention will shift from pure secondary prevention to a mix of secondary and tertiary prevention. As a consequence, the predictors of the model presented in the Schouten et al article can be used as a basis for tailoring neither preventive measures nor interventions. Moreover, including the outcome (sickness absence) as a predictor in the model, especially in a mixed population including workers with and without the condition (on sick leave), will result in biased predictors and

Risk evaluation of cosmic-ray exposure in long-term manned space mission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujitaka, Kazunobu; Majima, Hideyuki; Ando, Koichi; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Masao

1999-03-01

Long-term manned space missions are planned to be implemented within the first two decades of the 21st century. The International Space Station (ISS) will be ready to run, and a plan to visit Mars is also under way. Humans will live in space for long periods of time and we are planning to do experiments in space to examine various aspects of space science. The main risk in long-term manned space missions is large exposure to space radiation. Human safety must be ensured in space where exposure to cosmic rays is almost 1 mSv a day. As such missions will inevitably result in significant exposure for astronauts, there is increasing need to protect them adequately based on both physical and biological knowledge. A good method to evaluate realistic risk associated with space missions will be in urgent demand. At the National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS), Chiba, Japan, a research institutes of the Science Technology Agency of Japan, high energy cosmic radiation can be simulated only with heavy ion irradiation accelerated by the particle accelerator, Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator (HIMAC). Research to evaluate risk of space radiation, including physical measurement techniques, protective effects, biological effects and risk adjustment, aging, neuronal cell damage and cancer risk are undergoing. We organized a workshop of the latest topics and experimental results of physics and biology related to space radiation supported by Japan Science and Technology Corporation (JST). This workshop was held as a satellite meeting associated with the 32nd Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Scientific Assembly (Nagoya, July 12-19th, 1998). This volume is an extended proceedings of the workshop. The proceedings contain six main subjects covering the latest information on Risk Evaluation of Cosmic-Ray Exposure in Long-Term Manned Space Mission'. 1. Risk Estimation of Heavy Ion Exposure in Space. 2. Low Dose-Rate Effects and Microbeam-Related Heavy Ions. 3. Chromosome and

Long-term biodosimetry Redux

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, Andre

2016-01-01

This paper revisits and reiterates the needs, purposes and requirements of bio-dosimetric assays for long-term dose and health risk assessments. While the most crucial need for bio-dosimetric assays is to guide medical response for radiation accidents, the value of such techniques for improving our understanding of radiation health risk by supporting epidemiological (long-term health risk) studies is significant. As new cohorts of exposed persons are identified and new health risk studies are undertaken with the hopes that studying the exposed will result in a deeper understanding of radiation risk, the value of reliable dose reconstruction is underscored. The ultimate application of biodosimetry in long-term health risk studies would be to completely replace model-based dose reconstruction-a complex suite of methods for retrospectively estimating dose that is commonly fraught with large uncertainties due to the absence of important exposure-related information, as well as imperfect models. While biodosimetry could potentially supplant model-based doses, there are numerous limitations of presently available techniques that constrain their widespread application in health risk research, including limited ability to assess doses received far in the past, high cost, great inter-individual variability, invasiveness, higher than preferred detection limits and the inability to assess internal dose (for the most part). These limitations prevent the extensive application of biodosimetry to large cohorts and should be considered a challenge to researchers to develop new and more flexible techniques that meet the demands of long-term health risk research. Events in recent years, e.g. the Fukushima reactor accident and the increased threat of nuclear terrorism, underscore that any event that results in significant radiation exposures of a group of people will also produce a much larger population, exposed at lower levels, but that likewise needs (or demands) an exposure

Development Of The Technique Of Assessment Of Banking Risks Of Long-Term Crediting Of Investments (On The Example Of Banks Of Sevastopol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulyana Viktorovna Dremova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The external destabilizing factor — financial crisis — has significantly influenced on the level increase of riskiness of the banking credit operations. Taking into account that the increased level of risk follows long-term credits, these operations has been influenced the most, that can be as one of the constraining conditions for the provision of bank long-term credit resources. It, in turn, causes the need to develop the risk assessment technique of long-term credits in regulation of banks’ long-term credit operations. As the risk assessment of credit operations in banking practice is generally limited to the calculation of credit risk, it is efficient to consider the scientifically reasonable approach to a risks assessment of long-term crediting including influence of private risks for the purpose of carrying out the generalized assessment of riskiness both separate types of long-term credits, and a long-term credit portfolio in general. The offered method is based on the calculation of aggregate risk coefficient of the long-term credits, calculated by means of mathematical method of principal component. In the work, it is offered to perform an assessment of private risks by means of statistics: the expectation value, mean square deviation, and the coefficient of a variation. The use of the principal components’ method at the risk assessment of longterm crediting meets such requirements as a lack of value judgment, accounting of specific features of private risks of long-term credits, mathematical validity. It gives the chance to apply the offered risk assessment method of long-term credits in banking. The conclusion is made that the application of an aggregative risk indicator of a long-term crediting will allow banks to trace more accurately the level of riskiness of a long-term credit portfolio and separate types of long-term credits that will strengthen the bank information and analytical base on risk regulation in the field and

Long-term mobile phone use and the risk of vestibular schwannoma: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schüz, Joachim; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Hansen, Søren; Stangerup, Sven-Eric; Cayé-Thomasen, Per; Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Olsen, Jørgen H; Johansen, Christoffer

2011-08-15

Vestibular schwannomas grow in the region within the brain where most of the energy by radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from using mobile phones is absorbed. The authors used 2 Danish nationwide cohort studies, one a study of all adult Danes subscribing for a mobile phone in 1995 or earlier and one on sociodemographic factors and cancer risk, and followed subjects included in both cohorts for occurrence of vestibular schwannoma up to 2006 inclusively. In this study including 2.9 million subjects, a long-term mobile phone subscription of ≥11 years was not related to an increased vestibular schwannoma risk in men (relative risk estimate = 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.52, 1.46), and no vestibular schwannoma cases among long-term subscribers occurred in women versus 1.6 expected. Vestibular schwannomas did not occur more often on the right side of the head, although the majority of Danes reported holding their mobile phone to the right ear. Vestibular schwannomas in long-term male subscribers were not of larger size than expected. Overall, no evidence was found that mobile phone use is related to the risk of vestibular schwannoma. Because of the usually slow growth of vestibular schwannoma and possible diagnostic delay, further surveillance is indicated.

[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].

Science.gov (United States)

Plancke, L; Amariei, A

2017-02-01

Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had

Long-term use of lithium and risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pottegård, Anton; Ennis, Zandra Nymand; Hallas, Jesper

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Lithium accumulates in the colon and inhibits the enzyme GSK-3β that possesses anti-carcinogenic effects. We therefore examined the association between lithium use and colorectal cancer risk in a nationwide study. METHODS: We used the Danish Cancer Registry to identify all patients...... diagnosed with incident colorectal adenocarcinoma during 2000-2012 (n=36 248). Using a matched case-control approach, we estimated the association between long-term use (⩾5 years) of lithium and risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Long-term use of lithium......, 0.66-1.55; distal colon: 1.52 (95% CI, 1.05-2.20); and rectum: 0.80 (95% CI, 0.50-1.30). CONCLUSIONS: Lithium use was not associated with an overall increased risk of colorectal adenocarcinoma. The variation by subsite warrants further investigation....

The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

2016-02-01

Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

A simple score for estimating the long-term risk of fracture in patients with multiple sclerosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bazelier, M. T.; van Staa, T. P.; Uitdehaag, B. M. J.

2012-01-01

was converted into integer risk scores. Results: In comparison with the FRAX calculator, our risk score contains several new risk factors that have been linked with fracture, which include MS, use of antidepressants, use of anticonvulsants, history of falling, and history of fatigue. We estimated the 5- and 10......Objective: To derive a simple score for estimating the long-term risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture in individual patients with MS. Methods: Using the UK General Practice Research Database linked to the National Hospital Registry (1997-2008), we identified patients with incident MS (n = 5......,494). They were matched 1:6 by year of birth, sex, and practice with patients without MS (control subjects). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the long-term risk of osteoporotic and hip fracture. We fitted the regression model with general and specific risk factors, and the final Cox model...

The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Thompson, Kimberly M

2016-12-01

To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response. INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management. Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations. New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.

Long-term risk of carotid restenosis in patients randomly assigned to endovascular treatment or endarterectomy in the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS): long-term follow-up of a randomised trial.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Bonati, Leo H

2009-10-01

In the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS), early recurrent carotid stenosis was more common in patients assigned to endovascular treatment than it was in patients assigned to endarterectomy (CEA), raising concerns about the long-term effectiveness of endovascular treatment. We aimed to investigate the long-term risks of restenosis in patients included in CAVATAS.

Long-term Prostate-specific Antigen Velocity in Improved Classification of Prostate Cancer Risk and Mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørsted, David Dynnes; Bojesen, Stig E; Kamstrup, Pia R

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether adding long-term prostate-specific antigen velocity (PSAV) to baseline PSA values improves classification of prostate cancer (PCa) risk and mortality in the general population. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether long-term PSAV improves classification of PCa risk...

Long-term risk of complications after mid-urethral sling IVS implantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grzegorz Surkont

2015-02-01

Full Text Available [b]Introduction[/b]. Results of short-term evaluation of multifilament microporous midurethral tape IVS differ a great deal. During the first year of implantation, erosions have been observed in 0%–26% of operated women. Long-term observations are rare. They suggest high risk of extrusion and infection even after years of implantation. [b]Objective[/b]. The purpose of the study was to evaluate long-term risk of complications after IVS implantation. Material and methods. Between 2001–2005, 72 women were operated on with the use of IVS mid-urethral tape. [b]Results[/b]. Two women had vaginal erosions during the first 3 months after the operation. Twelve women had vaginal erosions, purulent vaginal discharge, with IVS tape sticking out of the abdominal wall or vagina, and abdominal abscess. These complications were diagnosed between 9 months and 6 years after IVS implantation. The patients were operated on vaginally and open abdominally, 1–5 times because of complications after IVS implantation. [b]Conclusions[/b]. In the case of post-IVS complication, as much tape as possible should be excised. Long-term follow up on patients with IVS implantation should be recommended to the centres where IVS tape was used, even to patients after removal of the tape. Risk of erosion, extrusion and infection after midurethral multifilament microporous IVS tape implantation is too high – which is the reason it should no longer be used.

A cross-sectional study to assess the long-term health status of patients with lower respiratory tract infections, including Q-fever.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dam, A.S.G. van; Loenhout, J.A.F. van; Peters, J.B.; Rietveld, A.; Paget, W.J.; Akkermans, R.P.; Olde Loohuis, A.; Hautvast, J.L.A.; Velden, J. van der

2015-01-01

Patients with a lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) might be at risk for long-term impaired health status. We assessed whether LRTI patients without Q fever are equally at risk for developing long-term symptoms compared to LRTI patients with Q fever. The study was a cross-sectional cohort

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azevedo, F.; Vale, Z.A.; Khodr, H.M.; Oliveira, P.B. Moura

2010-01-01

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn. (author)

Long-term mobile phone use and the risk of vestibular schwannoma: a Danish nationwide cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schüz, Joachim; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Hansen, Søren

2011-01-01

Vestibular schwannomas grow in the region within the brain where most of the energy by radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from using mobile phones is absorbed. The authors used 2 Danish nationwide cohort studies, one a study of all adult Danes subscribing for a mobile phone in 1995 or earlier...... and one on sociodemographic factors and cancer risk, and followed subjects included in both cohorts for occurrence of vestibular schwannoma up to 2006 inclusively. In this study including 2.9 million subjects, a long-term mobile phone subscription of =11 years was not related to an increased vestibular...... reported holding their mobile phone to the right ear. Vestibular schwannomas in long-term male subscribers were not of larger size than expected. Overall, no evidence was found that mobile phone use is related to the risk of vestibular schwannoma. Because of the usually slow growth of vestibular schwannoma...

Long-term mobile phone use and the risk of vestibular schwannoma: a Danish nationwide cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schüz, Joachim; Steding-Jessen, Marianne; Hansen, Søren

2011-01-01

Vestibular schwannomas grow in the region within the brain where most of the energy by radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from using mobile phones is absorbed. The authors used 2 Danish nationwide cohort studies, one a study of all adult Danes subscribing for a mobile phone in 1995 or earlier...... and one on sociodemographic factors and cancer risk, and followed subjects included in both cohorts for occurrence of vestibular schwannoma up to 2006 inclusively. In this study including 2.9 million subjects, a long-term mobile phone subscription of ≥11 years was not related to an increased vestibular...... reported holding their mobile phone to the right ear. Vestibular schwannomas in long-term male subscribers were not of larger size than expected. Overall, no evidence was found that mobile phone use is related to the risk of vestibular schwannoma. Because of the usually slow growth of vestibular schwannoma...

A protocol improves GP recording of long-term sickness absence risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Dijk, Paul C. M.; Hogervorst, Wouter; ter Riet, Gerben; van Dijk, Frank

2008-01-01

Background If general practitioners (GPs) were better informed about patients' risks of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), they could incorporate these risk assessments into their patient management plans and cooperate more with occupational physicians to prevent LTSA. Aim To evaluate the

Long-term risks of kidney living donation: review and position paper by the ERA-EDTA DESCARTES working group.

Science.gov (United States)

Maggiore, Umberto; Budde, Klemens; Heemann, Uwe; Hilbrands, Luuk; Oberbauer, Rainer; Oniscu, Gabriel C; Pascual, Julio; Schwartz Sorensen, Soren; Viklicky, Ondrej; Abramowicz, Daniel

2017-02-01

Two recent matched cohort studies from the USA and Norway published in 2014 have raised some concerns related to the long-term safety of kidney living donation. Further studies on the long-term risks of living donation have since been published. In this position paper, Developing Education Science and Care for Renal Transplantation in European States (DESCARTES) board members critically review the literature in an effort to summarize the current knowledge concerning long-term risks of kidney living donation to help physicians for decision-making purposes and for providing information to the prospective live donors. Long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) can be partially foreseen by trying to identify donors at risk of developing ‘de novo’ kidney diseases during life post-donation and by predicting lifetime ESRD risk. However, lifetime risk may be difficult to assess in young donors, especially in those having first-degree relatives with ESRD. The study from Norway also found an increased risk of death after living donor nephrectomy, which became visible only after >15 years of post-donation follow-up. However, these findings are likely to be largely the result of an overestimation due to the confounding effect related to a family history of renal disease. DESCARTES board members emphasize the importance of optimal risk–benefit assessment and proper information to the prospective donor, which should also include recommendations on health-promoting behaviour post-donation. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Antipsychotic medication and long-term mortality risk in patients with schizophrenia; a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vermeulen, J; van Rooijen, G; Doedens, P; Numminen, E; van Tricht, M; de Haan, L

2017-10-01

Patients with schizophrenia have a higher mortality risk than patients suffering from any other psychiatric disorder. Previous research is inconclusive regarding the association of antipsychotic treatment with long-term mortality risk. To this aim, we systematically reviewed the literature and performed a meta-analysis on the relationship between long-term mortality and exposure to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia. The objectives were to (i) determine long-term mortality rates in patients with schizophrenia using any antipsychotic medication; (ii) compare these with mortality rates of patients using no antipsychotics; (iii) explore the relationship between cumulative exposure and mortality; and (iv) assess causes of death. We systematically searched the EMBASE, MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases for studies that reported on mortality and antipsychotic medication and that included adults with schizophrenia using a follow-up design of more than 1 year. A total of 20 studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria. These studies reported 23,353 deaths during 821,347 patient years in 133,929 unique patients. Mortality rates varied widely per study. Meta-analysis on a subgroup of four studies showed a consistent trend of an increased long-term mortality risk in schizophrenia patients who did not use antipsychotic medication during follow-up. We found a pooled risk ratio of 0.57 (LL:0.46 UL:0.76 p value schizophrenia without antipsychotic medication require further research. Prospective validation studies, uniform measures of antipsychotic exposure and classified causes of death are commendable.

Does long-term coffee intake reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pimentel Gustavo D

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract This review reports the evidence for a relation between long-term coffee intake and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Numerous epidemiological studies have evaluated this association and, at this moment, at least fourteen out of eighteen cohort studies revealed a substantially lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus with frequent coffee intake. Moderate coffee intake (≥4 cups of coffee/d of 150 mL or ≥400 mg of caffeine/d has generally been associated with a decrease in the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Besides, results of most studies suggest a dose-response relation, with greater reductions in type 2 diabetes mellitus risk with higher levels of coffee consumption. Several mechanisms underlying this protective effect, as well as the coffee components responsible for this association are suggested. Despite positive findings, it is still premature to recommend an increase in coffee consumption as a public health strategy to prevent type 2 diabetes mellitus. More population-based surveys are necessary to clarify the long-term effects of decaffeinated and caffeinated coffee intake on the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets: Empirical evidence from Nord Pool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

2010-01-01

In this paper we propose a three-factor spike model that accounts for different speeds of mean reversion between normal and spiky shocks in the Scandinavian power market. In this model both short and long-run factors are unobservable and are hence estimated as latent variables using the Kalman filter. The proposed model has several advantages. First, it seems to capture in a parsimonious way the most important risks that practitioners face in the market, such as spike risk, short-term risk and long-term risk. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium observed in the market and improves the fit between theoretical and observed forward prices, particularly for long-dated forward contracts. Finally, closed-form solutions for forward contracts, derived from the model, are consistent with the fact that the correlation between contracts of different maturities is imperfect. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful policy analysis and financial engineering tool to market participants for risk management and derivative pricing particularly for long-dated contracts.

Office white-coat effect tail and long-term cardiovascular risks in the Gubbio residential cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Humbert, Xavier; Fedrizzi, Sophie; Alexandre, Joachim; Menotti, Alessandro; Manrique, Alain; Touzé, Emmanuel; Puddu, Paolo E

2018-05-24

The aim was to investigate whether office white-coat effect tail (OWCET), the waning of blood pressure (BP) after its waxing during office visit, predicted long-term major fatal and nonfatal events in the Gubbio residential cohort. There were 3572 persons (44% men, 54 ± 11 years old) included. OWCET was defined as a decrease of 10 mmHg or more in SBP between the third and first measurement out of a series obtained a few min apart in which the second and third were considered actual baseline SBP at enrollment. Cardiovascular (CVD), including strokes and coronary heart disease (CHD) hard criteria incidences and deaths along with all-cause deaths were considered. Over 185 months median follow-up, individuals with OWCET had significantly higher risk factors except for smoking, which was less frequent. OWCET was associated with an increased risk of both CVD [HR 1.25 (95% CI 1.02-1.52)] and CHD [HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.01-1.80)] events independently of traditional risk factors (age, sex, total cholesterol, HDL, cigarettes and BMI) including SBP. When effective antihypertensive treatment was considered, there was a significant higher CVD risk in individuals with OWCET (P < 0.037). In uncontrolled or untreated individuals, those with OWCET also had a higher risk (P < 0.073). In primary care, OWCET should be searched for as it can improve stratification of long-term CVD-CHD risks.

The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Osterrieder, Daniela; Schotman, Peter C.

We develop a model that can match two stylized facts of the term-structure. The first stylized fact is the predictability of excess returns on long-term bonds. Modeling this requires sufficient volatility and persistence in the price of risk. The second stylized fact is that long-term yields...... are dominated by a level factor, which requires persistence in the spot interest rate. We find that a fractionally integrated process for the short rate plus a fractionally integrated specification for the price of risk leads to an analytically tractable almost affine term structure model that can explain...... the stylized facts. In a decomposition of long-term bond returns we find that the expectations component from the level factor is more volatile than the returns themselves. It therefore takes a volatile risk premium that is negatively correlated with innovations in the level factor to explain the volatility...

[Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

2016-01-26

To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

Long-term experiences with pluvial flood risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fritsch Kathrina

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The awareness of pluvial (rain-related flood risk has grown significantly in the past few years but pluvial flooding is not handled with the same intensity throughout Europe. A variety of methods and modelling technologies are used to assess pluvial flood hazard and risk and to develop suggestions for flood mitigation measures. A brief overview of current model approaches is followed by the description of a modelling methodology that has been developed throughout the last 15 years with the focus on processing large scale areas. Experiences from several projects show that only high quality models of whole catchment areas yield results with enough accuracy to gain credibility among stakeholders, planners and the public. As a best practice example shows, the model approach also helps to plan effective decentral flood protection measures. To ensure successful flood risk management, a long-term preservation of flood risk awareness among local authorities and the public is necessary.

Frequency, imaging findings, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of distal clavicular osteolysis in young patients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roedl, Johannes B.; Nevalainen, Mika; Gonzalez, Felix M.; Morrison, William B.; Zoga, Adam C. [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Thomas Jefferson University, Division of Musculoskeletal Imaging and Interventions, Department of Radiology, Philadelphia, PA (United States); Dodson, Christopher C. [Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Rothman Institute, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Division of Sports Medicine, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Philadelphia, PA (United States)

2015-05-01

Atraumatic distal clavicular osteolysis (DCO) has been described in adult male weightlifters. Our purpose was to investigate the frequency, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of DCO in young patients. Individuals with atraumatic DCO were identified in a retrospective review of 1,432 consecutive MRI shoulder reports in patients between 13 and 19 years of age. MRI findings of DCO, association with athletic activity, short-term clinical outcome after 3-6 months, and long-term clinical and MRI outcome after 2 years were analyzed. A pre-MRI questionnaire assessed the patients' athletic history including overhead activity and weightlifting. At a mean age of 15.9 years, 6.5 % (93/1432) of patients had atraumatic DCO, and 24 % were females. The combination of an overhead sport (basketball, volleyball, tennis, swimming) and supplemental weight training was a risk factor for DCO (odds ratio = 38, p = 0.01). Ninety-three percent of patients responded to conservative therapy. On follow-up imaging, 71 % of DCO patients had acromioclavicular (AC) joint osteoarthritis (vs. 35 % in controls, p = 0.006); 79 % had flattening of the distal clavicle and interval widening of the AC joint to a mean of 5.0 mm (compared to 2.4 mm in controls, p < 0.001). Severity of DCO edema was associated with pain (p < 0.02) at initial presentation and with AC joint osteoarthritis (p = 0.004) on follow-up. In athletic teenagers, the combination of weightlifting and overhead activity is a risk factor for atraumatic DCO, and females are affected in 24 %. Long-term sequelae include widening of the AC joint and AC joint osteoarthritis. (orig.)

Frequency, imaging findings, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of distal clavicular osteolysis in young patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roedl, Johannes B.; Nevalainen, Mika; Gonzalez, Felix M.; Morrison, William B.; Zoga, Adam C.; Dodson, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Atraumatic distal clavicular osteolysis (DCO) has been described in adult male weightlifters. Our purpose was to investigate the frequency, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) characteristics, risk factors, and long-term sequelae of DCO in young patients. Individuals with atraumatic DCO were identified in a retrospective review of 1,432 consecutive MRI shoulder reports in patients between 13 and 19 years of age. MRI findings of DCO, association with athletic activity, short-term clinical outcome after 3-6 months, and long-term clinical and MRI outcome after 2 years were analyzed. A pre-MRI questionnaire assessed the patients' athletic history including overhead activity and weightlifting. At a mean age of 15.9 years, 6.5 % (93/1432) of patients had atraumatic DCO, and 24 % were females. The combination of an overhead sport (basketball, volleyball, tennis, swimming) and supplemental weight training was a risk factor for DCO (odds ratio = 38, p = 0.01). Ninety-three percent of patients responded to conservative therapy. On follow-up imaging, 71 % of DCO patients had acromioclavicular (AC) joint osteoarthritis (vs. 35 % in controls, p = 0.006); 79 % had flattening of the distal clavicle and interval widening of the AC joint to a mean of 5.0 mm (compared to 2.4 mm in controls, p < 0.001). Severity of DCO edema was associated with pain (p < 0.02) at initial presentation and with AC joint osteoarthritis (p = 0.004) on follow-up. In athletic teenagers, the combination of weightlifting and overhead activity is a risk factor for atraumatic DCO, and females are affected in 24 %. Long-term sequelae include widening of the AC joint and AC joint osteoarthritis. (orig.)

Prevalence of risk factors for falls among elderly people living in long-term care homes

OpenAIRE

Pradnya Dhargave, PhD; Ragupathy Sendhilkumar, MSc, MPT

2016-01-01

Background: Falls are common among the geriatric population, causing frequent morbidity and mortality. There is an increased risk of fall among older people living in long-term care homes. Identifying risk factors for falls among older people living in old-age homes can help in the care and prevention of falls in this population. Aim: To evaluate the prevalence of various risk factors for falls among older people living in long-term care homes. Methods: A total of 163 elderly men and wo...

Long-term portfolio investments: New insight into return and risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Abramov

2015-09-01

Emphasis is placed on the need for regular adjustments to long-term investors’ portfolios. As portfolios get older, those investors see a reduction in the returns’ dispersion, while differences in risk between various portfolios increase. This means that to maintain a fixed risk–return ratio for a portfolio as the horizon increases, an investor needs to increase the share of lower-risk financial assets during asset allocation process. This thesis becomes especially relevant in the context of retirement savings management.

Long-term sick leave and its risk factors during pregnancy among Danish hospital employees

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kærlev, Linda; Jacobsen, Lene B.; Olsen, Jørn

2004-01-01

AIM: The authors sought to describe risk indicators of long-term sick leave during pregnancy among hospital employees. METHODS: A register-based study was undertaken of 4,852 female hospital employees aged 20-45 years from the second largest hospital in Denmark during 1995-99 based on job titles...... leave days than other hospital employees. Part-time work, previous sickness absence not related to pregnancy, and previous chronic back pain were risk factors for long-term sick leave as were much walking or standing, long working days, high work level, little practical support from supervisors...... women in a manner that optimizes their health and well-being....

Transitions to Long-Term Unemployment Risk among Young People: Evidence from Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Elish; McGuinness, Seamus; O'Connell, Philip J.

2012-01-01

Many young people have short spells of unemployment during their transition from school to work; however, some often get trapped in unemployment and risk becoming long-term unemployed. Much research has been undertaken on the factors that influence unemployment risk for young people during their school-to-work transition. However, very little is…

Self-reported Occupational Skin Exposure and Risk of Physician-certified Long-term Sick Leave

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alfonso, Jose H; Tynes, Tore; Thyssen, Jacob P

2016-01-01

Little is known about the contribution of occupational skin exposure as a risk factor for physician-certified long-term sick leave in the general working population of Norway. This study drew a cohort (n = 12,255; response at baseline 69.9%) randomly from the general population of Norway. Occupat......Little is known about the contribution of occupational skin exposure as a risk factor for physician-certified long-term sick leave in the general working population of Norway. This study drew a cohort (n = 12,255; response at baseline 69.9%) randomly from the general population of Norway....... Occupational skin exposure (in 2009) was measured based on 5 items. The outcome of interest was physician-certified long-term sick leave ≥ 16 days during 2010. Statistical adjustment for psychosocial and mechanical occupational exposures was performed. Long-term sick leave was predicted by occupational skin...... exposure to cleaning products (odds ratio (OR) 1.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1-2.5) and waste (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-3.7) among men, and occupational skin exposure to water (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.0-1.6) among women. The estimated population attributable risk for occupational skin exposure was 14...

Early childhood family intervention and long-term obesity prevention among high-risk minority youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Brotman, Laurie Miller; Dawson-McClure, Spring; Huang, Keng-Yen; Theise, Rachelle; Kamboukos, Dimitra; Wang, Jing; Petkova, Eva; Ogedegbe, Gbenga

2012-03-01

To test the hypothesis that family intervention to promote effective parenting in early childhood affects obesity in preadolescence. Participants were 186 minority youth at risk for behavior problems who enrolled in long-term follow-up studies after random assignment to family intervention or control condition at age 4. Follow-up Study 1 included 40 girls at familial risk for behavior problems; Follow-up Study 2 included 146 boys and girls at risk for behavior problems based on teacher ratings. Family intervention aimed to promote effective parenting and prevent behavior problems during early childhood; it did not focus on physical health. BMI and health behaviors were measured an average of 5 years after intervention in Study 1 and 3 years after intervention in Study 2. Youth randomized to intervention had significantly lower BMI at follow-up relative to controls (Study 1 P = .05; Study 2 P = .006). Clinical impact is evidenced by lower rates of obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile) among intervention girls and boys relative to controls (Study 2: 24% vs 54%, P = .002). There were significant intervention-control group differences on physical and sedentary activity, blood pressure, and diet. Two long-term follow-up studies of randomized trials show that relative to controls, youth at risk for behavior problems who received family intervention at age 4 had lower BMI and improved health behaviors as they approached adolescence. Efforts to promote effective parenting and prevent behavior problems early in life may contribute to the reduction of obesity and health disparities.

The Long-term Risk of Epilepsy after Febrile Seizures in susceptible subgroups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vestergaard, Mogens; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Sidenius, Per Christian

2007-01-01

A family history of seizures, preexisting brain damage, or birth complications may modify the long-term risk of epilepsy after febrile seizures. The authors evaluated the association between febrile seizures and epilepsy in a population-based cohort of 1.54 million persons born in Denmark (1978......-2002), including 49,857 persons with febrile seizures and 16,481 persons with epilepsy. Overall, for children with febrile seizures compared with those without such seizures, the rate ratio for epilepsy was 5.43 (95% confidence interval: 5.19, 5.69). The risk remained high during the entire follow.......3). In conclusion, persons with a history of febrile seizures had a higher rate of epilepsy that lasted into adult life, but less than 7 percent of children with febrile seizures developed epilepsy during 23 years of follow-up. The risk was higher for those who had a family history of epilepsy, cerebral palsy...

Household income and risk-of-poverty of parents of long-term childhood cancer survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Mader, Luzius; Roser, Katharina; Baenziger, Julia; Tinner, Eva Maria; Scheinemann, Katrin; Kuehni, Claudia Elisabeth; Michel, Gisela

2017-08-01

Taking care of children diagnosed with cancer affects parents' professional life and may place the family at risk-of-poverty. We aimed to (i) compare the household income and risk-of-poverty of parents of childhood cancer survivors (CCS) to parents of the general population, and (ii) identify sociodemographic and cancer-related factors associated with risk-of-poverty. As part of the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we sent a questionnaire to parents of CCS aged 5-15 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis. Information on parents of the general population came from the Swiss Household Panel (parents with ≥1 child aged 5-15 years). Risk-of-poverty was defined as having a monthly household income of poverty. We included parents of 383 CCS and 769 control parent households. Parent-couples of CCS had a lower household income (P trend poverty (30.4% vs. 19.3%, P = 0.001) compared to control parent-couples. Household income and risk-of-poverty of single parents of CCS was similar to control single parents. Parents of CCS were at higher risk-of-poverty if they had only standard education (OR mother = 3.77 [where OR is odds ratio], confidence interval [CI]: 1.61-8.82; OR father = 8.59, CI: 4.16-17.72) and were from the German language region (OR = 1.99, CI: 1.13-3.50). We found no cancer-related risk factors. Parents of long-term CCS reported lower household income and higher risk-of-poverty than control parents. Support strategies may be developed to mitigate parents' risk-of-poverty in the long term, particularly among parents with lower education. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term nitrite inhalant exposure and cancer risk in MSM

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Anupriya; Uno, Hajime; Holman, Alex; Lorenz, David R.; Wolinsky, Steven M.; Gabuzda, Dana

2017-01-01

Objectives: Nitrite inhalants (poppers) are commonly used recreational drugs among MSM and were previously associated with elevated rates of high-risk sexual behavior, HIV and human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8) seroconversion, and transient immunosuppressive effects in experimental models. Whether long-term popper use is associated with cancer risk among MSM in the HAART era is unclear. Design: Prospective cohort study of cancer risk in 3223 HIV-infected and uninfected MSM in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study from 1996–2010. Methods: Poisson regression models were used to examine the association between heavy popper use (defined as daily or weekly use for at least 1 year) and risk of individual cancers or composite category of virus-associated cancers. Results: Among all participants, heavy popper use was not associated with increased risk of any individual cancers. Among HIV-uninfected men aged 50–70, heavy popper use was associated with increased risk of virus-associated cancer with causes linked to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus in models adjusted for demographics, number of sexual partners, immunological parameters (CD4+ cell counts or CD4+/CD8+ ratios), and hepatitis B and C viruses [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.24, 1.05–9.96], or sexually transmitted infections (IRR 3.03, 95% CI, 1.01–9.09), as was cumulative use over a 5-year period (IRR 1.012, 95% CI 1.003–1.021; P = 0.007). There was no significant association between heavy popper use and virus-associated cancer in HIV-infected men. Conclusions: Long-term heavy popper use is associated with elevated risk of some virus-associated cancers with causes related to human papillomavirus, HHV-8, and Epstein–Barr virus infections in older HIV-uninfected MSM independent of sexual behavior and immunological parameters. PMID:28441176

Development of a Risk-Based Performance Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems--Application to the Monticello Mill Tailings Repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

HO, CLIFFORD K.; ARNOLD, BILL W.; COCHRAN, JOHN R.; WEBB, STEPHEN W.; TAIRA, RANDAL Y.

2001-01-01

A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology is being developed to assist designers, regulators, and involved stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report presents an example of the risk-based performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results of this study can be used to identify engineering and environmental parameters (e.g., liner properties, long-term precipitation, distribution coefficients) that require additional data to reduce uncertainty in the calculations and improve confidence in the model predictions. These results can also be used to evaluate alternative engineering designs and to identify parameters most important to long-term performance

Long Term Financing of Infrastructure

OpenAIRE

Sinha, Sidharth

2014-01-01

Infrastructure projects, given their long life, require long term financing. The main sources of long term financings are insurance and pension funds who seek long term investments with low credit risk. However, in India household financial savings are mainly invested in bank deposits. Insurance and pension funds account for only a small percentage of household financial savings. In addition most infrastructure projects do not qualify for investment by insurance and pension funds because of t...

Long-term care financing through Federal tax incentives.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, D W; Weingart, J M

1988-12-01

Congress and the Administration are currently exploring various methods of promoting access to long-term care. In this article, an inventory of recent legislative proposals for using the Federal tax code to expand access to long-term care services is provided. Proposals are arrayed along a functional typology that includes tax mechanisms to encourage accumulation of funds, promote purchase of long-term care insurance, or induce the diversion of funds accumulated for another purpose (such as individual retirement accounts). The proposals are evaluated against the public policy objective of encouraging risk pooling to minimize social cost.

Haloperidol for long-term aggression in psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Khushu, Abha; Powney, Melanie J

2016-11-27

Psychotic disorders can lead some people to become agitated. Characterised by restlessness, excitability and irritability, this can result in verbal and physically aggressive behaviour - and both can be prolonged. Aggression within the psychiatric setting imposes a significant challenge to clinicians and risk to service users; it is a frequent cause for admission to inpatient facilities. If people continue to be aggressive it can lengthen hospitalisation. Haloperidol is used to treat people with long-term aggression. To examine whether haloperidol alone, administered orally, intramuscularly or intravenously, is an effective treatment for long-term/persistent aggression in psychosis. We searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group Trials Register (July 2011 and April 2015). We included randomised controlled trials (RCT) or double blind trials (implying randomisation) with useable data comparing haloperidol with another drug or placebo for people with psychosis and long-term/persistent aggression. One review author (AK) extracted data. For dichotomous data, one review author (AK) calculated risk ratios (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) on an intention-to-treat basis based on a fixed-effect model. One review author (AK) assessed risk of bias for included studies and created a 'Summary of findings' table using GRADE. We have no good-quality evidence of the absolute effectiveness of haloperidol for people with long-term aggression. One study randomising 110 chronically aggressive people to three different antipsychotic drugs met the inclusion criteria. When haloperidol was compared with olanzapine or clozapine, skewed data (n=83) at high risk of bias suggested some advantage in terms of scale scores of unclear clinical meaning for olanzapine/clozapine for 'total aggression'. Data were available for only one other outcome, leaving the study early. When compared with other antipsychotic drugs, people allocated to haloperidol were no more likely to leave the study

Strategies to meet the need for long-term data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chalmers, John; Woodward, Mark; Borghi, Claudio; Manolis, Athanasios; Mancia, Giuseppe

2016-08-01

Chronic diseases afflict patients for many years, often to the end of life, and there is increasing need for estimating lifelong risk and for evaluating the effects of treatment in the long term. Yet recommendations for lifelong treatment are most frequently based on findings from randomized clinical trials lasting only a few years. There is therefore a clear need for much longer term data, and here we present the advantages and disadvantages of many strategies, including the use of long-term posttrial follow-up, of long-term prospective cohort studies, registry databases, and of administrative databases. We also emphasize the need for long-term cost-effectiveness studies. One of the most promising strategies comes from linkage of data gathered through the ever-expanding pool of administrative databases worldwide with data from other sources, including randomized trials and the many forms of observational study.

The risk of toxic retinopathy in patients on long-term hydroxychloroquine therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Melles, Ronald B; Marmor, Michael F

2014-12-01

Hydroxychloroquine sulfate is widely used for the long-term treatment of autoimmune conditions but can cause irreversible toxic retinopathy. Prior estimations of risk were low but were based largely on short-term users or severe retinal toxicity (bull's eye maculopathy). The risk may be much higher because retinopathy can be detected earlier when using more sensitive screening techniques. To reassess the prevalence of and risk factors for hydroxychloroquine retinal toxicity and to determine dosage levels that facilitate safe use of the drug. Retrospective case-control study in an integrated health organization of approximately 3.4 million members among 2361 patients who had used hydroxychloroquine continuously for at least 5 years according to pharmacy records and who were evaluated with visual field testing or spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. Hydroxychloroquine use for at least 5 years. Retinal toxicity as determined by characteristic visual field loss or retinal thinning and photoreceptor damage, as well as statistical measures of risk factors and prevalence. Real body weight predicted risk better than ideal body weight and was used for all calculations. The overall prevalence of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy was 7.5% but varied with daily consumption (odds ratio, 5.67; 95% CI, 4.14-7.79 for >5.0 mg/kg) and with duration of use (odds ratio, 3.22; 95% CI, 2.20-4.70 for >10 years). For daily consumption of 4.0 to 5.0 mg/kg, the prevalence of retinal toxicity remained less than 2% within the first 10 years of use but rose to almost 20% after 20 years of use. Other major risk factors include kidney disease (odds ratio, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.44-3.01) and concurrent tamoxifen citrate therapy (odds ratio, 4.59; 95% CI, 2.05-10.27). These data suggest that hydroxychloroquine retinopathy is more common than previously recognized, especially at high dosages and long duration of use. While no completely safe dosage is identified from this study, daily consumption of

Beyond post-marketing research and MedWatch: Long-term studies of drug risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Resnik, David B

2007-10-01

Critics of the drug safety system have discussed many different potential reforms, ranging from mandatory registration of clinical trials to increasing the power of regulatory agencies, but few have discussed one of the most important ways of enhancing safety: increasing the number of long-term studies of medications. Long-term studies of the risks and benefits of drugs can provide useful information for regulators, healthcare professionals, and patients. Government funding agencies should lead the effort to conduct long-term studies of drugs, but private companies should also be required to lend financial support. Because cost-effectiveness is likely to be an important consideration in conducting this research, funding agencies should focus, at first, on drugs that are used to treat common, chronic conditions.

Craniopharyngioma in Children: Long-term Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

STEINBOK, Paul

2015-01-01

The survival rate for childhood craniopharyngioma has been improving, with more long-term survivors. Unfortunately it is rare for the patient to be normal, either from the disease itself or from the effects of treatment. Long-term survivors of childhood craniopharyngioma suffer a number of impairments, which include visual loss, endocrinopathy, hypothalamic dysfunction, cerebrovascular problems, neurologic and neurocognitive dysfunction. Pituitary insufficiency is present in almost 100%. Visual and hypothalamic dysfunction is common. There is a high risk of metabolic syndrome and increased risk of cerebrovascular disease, including stroke and Moyamoya syndrome. Cognitive, psychosocial, and emotional problems are prevalent. Finally, there is a higher risk of premature death among survivors of craniopharyngioma, and often this is not from tumor recurrence. It is important to consider craniopharyngioma as a chronic disease. There is no perfect treatment. The treatment has to be tailored to the individual patient to minimize dysfunction caused by tumor and treatments. So “cure” of the tumor does not mean a normal patient. The management of the patient and family needs multidisciplinary evaluation and should involve ophthalmology, endocrinology, neurosurgery, oncology, and psychology. Furthermore, it is also important to address emotional issues and social integration. PMID:26345668

Individualized Fracture Risk Feedback and Long-term Benefits After 10 Years.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Feitong; Wills, Karen; Laslett, Laura L; Riley, Malcolm D; Oldenburg, Brian; Jones, Graeme; Winzenberg, Tania

2018-02-01

This study aimed to determine if beneficial effects of individualized feedback of fracture risk on osteoporosis preventive behaviors and bone mineral density observed in a 2-year trial were sustained long-term. This was a 10-year follow-up of a 2-year RCT in 470 premenopausal women aged 25-44 years, who were randomized to one of two educational interventions (the Osteoporosis Prevention and Self-Management Course [OPSMC] or an osteoporosis information leaflet) and received tailored feedback of their relative risk of fracture in later life (high versus normal risk groups). Bone mineral density of lumbar spine and femoral neck were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Physical activity, dietary calcium intake, calcium and vitamin D supplements, and smoking status were measured by questionnaires. From 2 to 12 years, the high-risk group had a smaller decrease in femoral neck bone mineral density (β=0.023, 95% CI=0.005, 0.041 g/cm 2 ) but similar lumbar spine bone mineral density change as the normal-risk group. They were more likely to use calcium (relative risk=1.66, 95% CI=1.22, 2.24) and vitamin D supplements (1.99, 95% CI=1.27, 3.11). The OPSMC had no effects on bone mineral density change. Both high-risk (versus normal-risk) and the OPSMC groups (versus leaflet) had a more favorable pattern of smoking behavior change (relative risk=1.85, 95% CI=0.70, 4.89 and relative risk=2.27, 95% CI=0.86, 6.01 for smoking cessation; relative risk=0.33, 95% CI=0.13, 0.80 and relative risk=0.28, 95% CI=0.10, 0.79 for commenced or persistent smoking). Feedback of high fracture risk to younger women was associated with long-term improvements in osteoporosis preventive behaviors and attenuated femoral neck bone mineral density loss. Therefore, this could be considered as a strategy to prevent osteoporosis. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) NCT00273260. Copyright © 2018 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

Life after Kyoto? Exploration of long term strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Vuuren, D.P.

2001-01-01

The current international climate negotiations (including CoP-6,recently held in The Hague, Netherlands) are mainly concerned with short term actions and barriers, and are experiencing considerable difficulties, as was once again revealed in The Hague. But we should not forget that keeping climate risks under control also demands a long term perspective. Such a perspective demands an estimate of both possible consequences and risks of climate change, and the possible solutions, in terms of strategies, policy measures, consequences and costs. 2 refs

Long-term follow-up results of umbilical hernia repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Venclauskas, Linas; Jokubauskas, Mantas; Zilinskas, Justas; Zviniene, Kristina; Kiudelis, Mindaugas

2017-12-01

Multiple suture techniques and various mesh repairs are used in open or laparoscopic umbilical hernia (UH) surgery. To compare long-term follow-up results of UH repair in different hernia surgery groups and to identify risk factors for UH recurrence. A retrospective analysis of 216 patients who underwent elective surgery for UH during a 10-year period was performed. The patients were divided into three groups according to surgery technique (suture, mesh and laparoscopic repair). Early and long-term follow-up results including hospital stay, postoperative general and wound complications, recurrence rate and postoperative patient complaints were reviewed. Risk factors for recurrence were also analyzed. One hundred and forty-six patients were operated on using suture repair, 52 using open mesh and 18 using laparoscopic repair technique. 77.8% of patients underwent long-term follow-up. The postoperative wound complication rate and long-term postoperative complaints were significantly higher in the open mesh repair group. The overall hernia recurrence rate was 13.1%. Only 2 (1.7%) patients with small hernias ( 30 kg/m 2 , diabetes and wound infection were independent risk factors for umbilical hernia recurrence. The overall umbilical hernia recurrence rate was 13.1%. Body mass index > 30 kg/m 2 , diabetes and wound infection were independent risk factors for UH recurrence. According to our study results, laparoscopic medium and large umbilical hernia repair has slight advantages over open mesh repair concerning early postoperative complications, long-term postoperative pain and recurrence.

Long-term modelling for estimation of man-induced environmental risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahura, A.; Baklanov, A.; Sorensen, J.H.; Tridvornov, A.

2006-01-01

Full text: As a part of the EU coordination action project ENVIRO-RISKS the long-term regional and transboundary atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition of atmospheric pollutants is investigated. Focus is on pollutants originating at nuclear and chemical risk sites of the NIS countries. Potential sources of atmospheric pollution include chemical and metallurgical enterprises and smelters, former testing polygons of nuclear weapons, and nuclear plants and facilities. These are situated within territories of Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Russia (the Siberian, Ural, Krasnoyarsk, and Kola regions). The atmospheric pollutants considered are radionuclides such as Cs-137, I-131, and Sr-90 as well as sulphates and heavy metals. The Danish Emergency Model for Atmosphere (DERMA) is employed for simulations using 3D meteorological fields from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The modeled concentration and deposition fields of atmospheric pollutants are used as input into further collaborative studies to estimate the man-induced environmental risks from regionally and remotely located potential sources with a focus on Siberian territories. The temporal and spatial variability of these fields and the probabilities and contribution of removal during atmospheric transport are evaluated. Possible approaches for further GIS integration and use of obtained results are discussed with respect to estimation of man-received doses and risks, impact on environment with a focus on forests, applicability for integrated systems for regional environmental monitoring and management, and others. (author)

[Outsourcing in long-term care: a risk management approach].

Science.gov (United States)

Guimarães, Cristina Machado; Carvalho, José Crespo de

2012-05-01

This article seeks to investigate outsourcing decisions in supply chain management of healthcare organizations, namely the motives and constraints behind the decision, the selection criteria for activities to be outsourced to third parties, the type of possible agreements, and the impact of this decision on the organization per se. A case study of the start-up phase of a Long-term Care unit with an innovative approach and high levels of customization was conducted to understand the outsourcing process in a start-up context (not in the standard context of organizational change) and a risk evaluation matrix was created for outsourcing activities in order to define and implement a performance monitoring process. This study seeks to understand how to evaluate and assess the risks of an outsourcing strategy and proposes a monitoring model using risk management tools. It was shown that the risk management approach can be a solution for monitoring outsourcing in the organizational start-up phase. Conclusions concerning dissatisfaction with the results of outsourcing strategies adopted are also presented.

Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

Science.gov (United States)

Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although

Long-term follow-up of children with high-risk neuroblastoma: the ENSG5 trial experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, Lucas; Vaidya, Sucheta J; Pinkerton, C Ross; Lewis, Ian J; Imeson, John; Machin, David; Pearson, Andrew D J

2013-07-01

Therapy for high-risk neuroblastoma is intensive and multimodal, and significant long-term adverse effects have been described. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and severity of late complications of metastatic neuroblastoma survivors included in the ENSG5 clinical trial. The trial protocol included induction chemotherapy (randomized "Standard" OPEC/OJEC vs. "Rapid" COJEC), surgery of primary tumor and high-dose melphalan with stem cell rescue. Two hundred and sixty-two children were randomized, 69 survived >5 years, and 57 were analyzed. Data were obtained from the ENSG5 trial database and verified with questionnaires sent to participating centers. Median follow-up was 12.9 (6.9-16.5) years. No differences were found in late toxicities between treatment arms. Twenty-eight children (49.1%) developed hearing loss. Nine patients (15.8%) developed glomerular filtration rate <80 ml/min/1.73 m(2), but no cases of chronic renal failure were documented. Endocrine complications (28.1% of children) included mainly hypogonadism and delayed growth. Four children developed second malignancies, three of them 5 years after diagnosis: one osteosarcoma, one carcinoma of the parotid gland and one ependymoma. There were no hematological malignancies or deaths in remission. This study analyzed a wide cohort of high-risk neuroblastoma survivors from a multi-institutional randomized trial and established the profile of long-term toxicity within the setting of an international clinical trial. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Challenges Associated With Managing Suicide Risk in Long-Term Care Facilities.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Riley, Alisa; Nadorff, Michael R; Conwell, Yeates; Edelstein, Barry

2013-06-01

Little information about suicidal ideation and behavior in long-term care (LTC) facilities is available. Nonetheless, the implementation of the Minimum Data Set 3.0 requires that LTC facilities screen their residents for suicide risk and have protocols in place to effectively manage residents' responses. In this article, the authors briefly discuss the risk factors of suicide in the elderly and the problems that suicidal ideation and behavior pose in the LTC environment. The authors explain issues that arise when trying to manage suicide risk in the elderly LTC population with general, traditional approaches. These inherent issues make it difficult to develop an effective protocol for managing suicide risk in LTC facilities, leading the authors to propose their own framework for assessing and managing suicide risk in the LTC setting.

Physical work environment risk factors for long term sickness absence: prospective findings among a cohort of 5357 employees in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Thomas; Labriola, Merete; Christensen, Karl Bang

2006-01-01

employees interviewed in 2000 about their physical work environment, and various covariates were followed for 18 months in a national sickness absence register. Outcome measurements Cox regression analysis was performed to assess risk estimates for physical risk factors in the work environment and onset......OBJECTIVES: To examine the effects of physical work environment on long term sickness absence and to investigate interaction between physical and psychosocial risk factors. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study of long term sickness absence among employees in Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: 5357...... of long term sickness absence, defined as receiving sickness absence compensation for eight consecutive weeks or more. RESULTS: 348 participants (6.9%) developed long term sickness absence during follow-up. Of these, 194 (55.7%) were women and 154 (44.3%) were men. For both female and male employees, risk...

Differences in health status between long-term and short-term benzodiazepine users.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zandstra, S.M.; Furer, J.W.; Lisdonk, E.H. van de; Bor, J.H.J.; Zitman, F.G.; Weel, C. van

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: Despite generally accepted advice to keep treatment short, benzodiazepines are often prescibed for more than six months. Prevention of long-term benzodiazepine use could be facilitated by the utilisation of risk indicators for long-term use. However, the characteristics of long-term

Development of a Risk-Based Probabilistic Performance-Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems - 2nd Edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

HO, CLIFFORD K.; ARNOLD, BILL W.; COCHRAN, JOHN R.; TAIRA, RANDAL Y.

2002-01-01

A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology has been developed to assist designers, regulators, and stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report describes the method, the software tools that were developed, and an example that illustrates the probabilistic performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon gas flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results from uncertainty analyses, sensitivity analyses, and alternative design comparisons are presented for each of the performance metrics. The benefits from this methodology include a quantification of uncertainty, the identification of parameters most important to performance (to prioritize site characterization and monitoring activities), and the ability to compare alternative designs using probabilistic evaluations of performance (for cost savings)

Short-term and long-term risk factors in gastric cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Verlato, Giuseppe; Marrelli, Daniele; Accordini, Simone; Bencivenga, Maria; Di Leo, Alberto; Marchet, Alberto; Petrioli, Roberto; Zoppini, Giacomo; Muggeo, Michele; Roviello, Franco; de Manzoni, Giovanni

2015-06-07

curative gastrectomy with D2/D3 lymphadenectomy. Survival curves in the two different histotypes (intestinal and mixed/diffuse) were superimposed in the first three years of follow-up and diverged thereafter. Likewise, survival curves as a function of site (fundus vs body/antrum) started to diverge after the first year. On the contrary, survival curves differed among age classes from the very beginning, due to different post-operative mortality, which increased from 0.5% in patients aged 65-74 years to 9.9% in patients aged 75-91 years; this discrepancy later disappeared. Accordingly, the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model was violated, as regards age, site and histology. To cope with this problem, multivariable survival analysis was performed by separately considering either the first two years of follow-up or subsequent years. Histology and site were significant predictors only after two years, while T and N, although significant both in the short-term and in the long-term, became less important in the second part of follow-up. Increasing age was associated with higher mortality in the first two years, but not thereafter. Splitting survival time when performing survival analysis allows to distinguish between short-term and long-term risk factors. Alternative statistical solutions could be to exclude post-operative mortality, to introduce in the model time-dependent covariates or to stratify on variables violating proportionality assumption.

Adherence With Bisphosphonates and Long-Term Risk of Hip Fractures: A Nested Case-Control Study Using Real-World Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Shalev, Varda; Sharman Moser, Sarah; Goldshtein, Inbal; Yu, Jingbo; Weil, Clara; Ish-Shalom, Sophia; Rouach, Vanessa; Chodick, Gabriel

2017-09-01

Hip fracture is a major complication of osteoporosis. Bisphosphonate medication is the mainstay of treatment for osteoporosis. However, concerns have been raised regarding the effectiveness of bisphosphonates in reducing hip fracture risk after long-term use, particularly among patients with suboptimal adherence. To examine the association between adherence with bisphosphonate therapy and long-term risk of hip fracture. Included in the present nested case-control study were osteoporotic women (n = 14 357) who initiated bisphosphonate therapy in 2000-2010 and were retrospectively followed for incident hip fracture through November 2014. Within this cohort, each case of primary hip fractures was individually matched to 3 controls without a primary hip fracture. Proportion of follow-up days covered (PDC) with bisphosphonates was calculated from bisphosphonate purchases. Adherence was categorized into the following groups: purchase of 1 or 2 months' supply (reference group), at least 3 months' supply to PDC ≤20%, PDC >20% to ≤80%, PDC >80% to ≤100%. Included in the analysis were 426 case-control groups with a mean age (SD) of 73.7 years (7.9). Compared with the reference group, PDC of 80% to 100% with bisphosphonates was associated with a significant reduction in hip fracture risk for patients with 8 to 15 years of follow-up (OR = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.18-0.87). Among patients with a follow-up of up to 3 years, OR was 0.58 (95% CI = 0.31-1.06). Adherence with bisphosphonates among osteoporotic patients is associated with lower risk of hip fracture, with no indication of diminished effectiveness with long-term use.

Long-term Compliance with Oral 5-aminosalicylic Acid Therapy and Risk of Disease Recurrence in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prosberg, Michelle V; Vester-Andersen, Marianne K; Andersson, Mikael

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Noncompliance to long-term medical therapy is a well-known problem among patients treated for ulcerative colitis, but studies of long-term consequences in unselected patients are lacking. The authors aimed to determine the risk of recurrence according to long-term compliance with oral 5...

The Long-term Risk of Epilepsy after Febrile Seizures in susceptible subgroups

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vestergaard, Mogens; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Sidenius, Per Christian

2007-01-01

A family history of seizures, preexisting brain damage, or birth complications may modify the long-term risk of epilepsy after febrile seizures. The authors evaluated the association between febrile seizures and epilepsy in a population-based cohort of 1.54 million persons born in Denmark (1978-2......, or low Apgar scores at 5 minutes....

Risk of unsafe abortion associated with long-term contraception behaviour: a case control study from Sri Lanka

OpenAIRE

Arambepola, Carukshi; Rajapaksa, Lalini C

2017-01-01

Background When faced with an unintended pregnancy, some women choose to undergo an unsafe abortion, while others do not. This choice may depend on long-term contraception that shapes the fertility goals of women, along with many other risk factors. We assessed the risk for unsafe abortion associated with contraceptive practices based on women?s long-term behaviour, and its likely modification by the use of different types of contraceptives among women in Sri Lanka. Methods An unmatched case-...

The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

2001-01-01

Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

Expert opinion on risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes: An Australian study.

Science.gov (United States)

West, Camilla; Kenway, Steven; Hassall, Maureen; Yuan, Zhiguo

2017-09-01

The water sector needs to make efficient and prudent investment decisions by carefully considering the long-term viability of water infrastructure projects. To support the assessment and planning of residential recycled water schemes in Australia, we have sought to clarify scheme objectives and to further define the array of critical risks that can impact the long-term viability of schemes. Building on historical information, we conducted a national survey which elicited responses from 88 Australian expert practitioners, of which 64% have over 10 years of industry experience and 42% have experience with more than five residential recycled water schemes. On the basis of expert opinion, residential recycled water schemes are considered to be highly relevant for diversifying and improving water supply security, reducing wastewater effluent discharge and pollutant load to waterways and contributing to sustainable urban development. At present however, the inability to demonstrate an incontestable business case is posing a significant risk to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes. Political, regulatory, organisational and financial factors were also rated as critical risks, in addition to community risk perception and fall in demand. The survey results shed further light on the regulatory environment of residential recycled water schemes, with regulatory participants rating the level and impact of risk factors higher than other survey participants in most cases. The research outcomes provide a comprehensive understanding of the critical risks to the long-term viability of residential recycled water schemes, thereby enabling the specification of targeted risk management measures at the assessment and planning stage of a scheme. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

2003-01-01

Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blower Sally

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

Increasing fluid intake and reducing dehydration risk in older people living in long-term care: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Bunn, Diane; Jimoh, Florence; Wilsher, Stephanie Howard; Hooper, Lee

2015-02-01

To assess the efficacy of interventions and environmental factors on increasing fluid intake or reducing dehydration risk in older people living in long-term care facilities. Systematic review of intervention and observational studies. Thirteen electronic databases were searched from inception until September 2013 in all languages. References of included papers and reviews were checked. Intervention and observational studies investigating modifiable factors to increase fluid intake and/or reduce dehydration risk in older people (≥65 years) living in long-term care facilities who could drink orally. Two reviewers independently screened, selected, abstracted data, and assessed risk of bias from included studies; narrative synthesis was performed. A total of 4328 titles and abstracts were identified, 325 full-text articles were obtained and 23 were included in the review. Nineteen intervention and 4 observational studies from 7 countries investigated factors at the resident, institutional, or policy level. Overall, the studies were at high risk of bias due to selection and attrition bias and lack of valid outcome measures of fluid intake and dehydration assessment. Reported findings from 6 of the 9 intervention studies investigating the effect of multicomponent strategies on fluid intake or dehydration described a positive effect. Components included greater choice and availability of beverages, increased staff awareness, and increased staff assistance with drinking and toileting. Implementation of the US Resident Assessment Instrument reduced dehydration prevalence from 3% to 1%, P = .01. Two smaller studies reported positive effects: one on fluid intake in 9 men with Alzheimer disease using high-contrast red cups, the other involved supplementing 13 mildly dehydrated residents with oral hydration solution over 5 days to reduce dehydration. Modifications to the dining environment, advice to residents, presentation of beverages, and mode of delivery (straw vs beaker

Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

Science.gov (United States)

Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

2013-04-01

The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored

Long-Term Lithium Use and Risk of Renal and Upper Urinary Tract Cancers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper; Jensen, Boye L

2015-01-01

Lithium induces proliferation in the epithelium of renal collecting ducts. A recent small-scale cohort study reported a strong association between use of lithium and increased risk of renal neoplasia. We therefore conducted a large-scale pharmacoepidemiologic study of the association between long...... stratified by stage and subtype of upper urinary tract cancer revealed slight but nonsignificant increases in the ORs for localized disease (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.8-3.0) and for renal pelvis/ureter cancers (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.5-5.4). In conclusion, in our nationwide case-control study, use of lithium......-term use of lithium and risk of upper urinary tract cancer, including renal cell cancer and cancers of the renal pelvis or ureter. We identified all histologically verified upper urinary tract cancer cases in Denmark between 2000 and 2012 from the Danish Cancer Registry. A total of 6477 cases were matched...

A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

2010-11-01

Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors and long-term changes of non-arteritis anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying-Xin Cui

2016-01-01

Full Text Available AIM:To investigate the risk factors and long-term changes of non-arteritis anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy(NAION. METHODS:Three hundred and sixty cases of patients with NAION in our hospital from January 2010 to Juny 2015 were used as patients group and another 400 people undergoing health examination were used as control group. The clinical data was collected. Optical coherence tomography(OCTwas performed. RESULTS:There were significant difference on gender, history of diabetes or hypertension, arteriosclerosis history, disc area, cup area, rim area, cup/disc area ratio, horizontal cup-disc ratio, vertical cup-disc ratio, FBG and TG of two groups(PPP>0.05. CONCLUSION:Male, with diabetes, history of hypertension, arteriosclerosis history, disc area, cup area, rim area, cup/disc area ratio, horizontal cup-disc ratio, vertical cup-disc ratio, FBG and TG are independent risk factors of NAION. Long-term damage of RNFL may not aggravate.

Risk factors and analysis of long-term headache in sporadic vestibular schwannoma: a multicenter cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Matthew L; Tveiten, Øystein Vesterli; Driscoll, Colin L; Boes, Christopher J; Sullan, Molly J; Goplen, Frederik K; Lund-Johansen, Morten; Link, Michael J

2015-11-01

The primary goals of this study were: 1) to examine the influence of disease and treatment on headache in patients with sporadic vestibular schwannoma (VS); and 2) to identify clinical predictors of long-term headache disability. This was a cross-sectional observational study with international multicenter enrollment. Patients included those with primary sporadic Headache Disability Inventory (HDI), the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and a VS symptom questionnaire. The main outcome measures were univariate and multivariable associations with HDI total score. The overall survey response rate was 79%. Data from 538 patients with VS were analyzed. The mean age at time of survey was 64 years, 56% of patients were female, and the average duration between treatment and survey was 7.7 years. Twenty-seven percent of patients received microsurgery, 46% stereotactic radiosurgery, and 28% observation. Patients with VS who were managed with observation were more than twice as likely to have severe headache disability compared with 103 control subjects without VS. When accounting for baseline differences, there was no statistically significant difference in HDI outcome between treatment modalities at time of survey. Similarly, among the microsurgery cohort, the long-term risk of severe headache disability was not different between surgical approaches. Multivariable regression demonstrated that younger age, greater anxiety and depression, and a preexisting diagnosis of headache were the primary predictors of severe long-term headache disability, while tumor size and treatment modality had little influence. At a mean of almost 8 years following treatment, approximately half of patients with VS experience headaches of varying frequency and severity. Patient-driven factors including age, sex, mental health, and preexisting headache syndrome are the strongest predictors of long-term severe headache disability. Tumor size and treatment modality have less impact. These data

Long-term exercise adherence after public health training in at-risk adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riktrup Hansen Saida, Trine Gro; Juul Sørensen, Tina; Langberg, Henning

2017-01-01

and self-rated health. Predictors of long-term exercise adherence were assessed by logistic regression, estimating crude odds-ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) and adjusting for age, gender, education, smoking, moderate and vigorous exercise. Results: In total, 214 adults (mean age 58......Objectives: Sustainment of healthy exercise behavior is essential in preventing cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Few studies have explored long-term exercise adherence after an exercise referral scheme. The objective of this study was to examine 12-month exercise adherence after an exercise...... intervention program. Methods: This was a pragmatic follow-up study in at-risk people performed between June 2012 and January 2014. The main outcome measure was self-reported single-item exercise adherence. Secondary outcomes were change in exercise level, quality of life rated on a visual analog scale...

Fall determinants in older long-term care residents with dementia: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Kröpelin, Tobias F; Neyens, Jacques C L; Halfens, Ruud J G; Kempen, Gertrudis I J M; Hamers, Jan P H

2013-04-01

Persons with dementia are two to three times more likely to fall compared to persons without dementia. In long-term care settings, the dementia prevalence is highest. Therefore, older long-term care residents with dementia can be considered a high-risk group for falls. Nevertheless, no systematic evaluation of fall determinants in this population was found. The purpose of this study was to identify fall determinants among older long-term care residents with dementia or cognitively impaired persons in long-term care, by conducting a systematic literature review. We searched English, French, Dutch, and German articles listed in: CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Web of Science. Additionally, references of included articles were screened. Studies were included if determinants or circumstances of falls in older persons with dementia living in long-term care were assessed. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Three studies were excluded from detailed analysis because of insufficient quality. Use of psychotropic drugs, a "fair or poor" general health, gait impairments, and age were associated with an increased fall risk. Also trunk restraints were associated with an increased number of falls while full bedrails and wandering behavior were protective against falls. Fall risk factors known from other populations, e.g. use of psychotropic drugs, physical restraints, and health conditions, are found in long-term care residents with dementia as well. Due to the limited evidence available, future studies with adequate sample sizes and prospective designs are required to determine specific fall risk factors and verify existing results in this population.

Numerical simulation of gender differences in a long-term microgravity exposure

Science.gov (United States)

Perez-Poch, Antoni

The objective of this work is to analyse and simulate gender differences when individuals are exposed to long-term microgravity. Risk probability of a health impairment which may put in jeopardy a long-term mission is also evaluated. Computer simulations are becoming a promising research line of work, as physiological models become more and more sophisticated and reliable. Technological advances in state-of-the-art hardware technology and software allow nowadays for better and more accurate simulations of complex phenomena, such as the response of the human cardiovascular system to long-term exposure to microgravity. Experimental data for long-term missions are difficult to achieve and reproduce, therefore the predictions of computer simulations are of a major importance in this field. Our approach is based on a previous model developed and implemented in our laboratory (NELME: Numerical Evaluation of Long-term Microgravity Effects). The software simulates the behaviour of the cardiovascular system and different human organs, has a modular architecture, and allows to introduce perturbations such as physical exercise or countermeasures. The implementation is based on a complex electricallike model of this control system, using inexpensive software development frameworks, and has been tested and validated with the available experimental data. Gender differences have been implemented for this specific work, as an adjustment of a number of parameters that are included in the model. Women versus men physiological differences have been therefore taken into account, based upon estimations from the physiology bibliography. A number of simulations have been carried out for long-term exposure to microgravity. Gravity varying from Earth-based to zero, and time exposure are the two main variables involved in the construction of results, including responses to patterns of physical aerobical exercise, and also thermal stress simulating an extra-vehicular activity. Results show

Long-term mobile phone use and acoustic neuroma risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Pettersson, David; Mathiesen, Tiit; Prochazka, Michaela; Bergenheim, Tommy; Florentzson, Rut; Harder, Henrik; Nyberg, Gunnar; Siesjö, Peter; Feychting, Maria

2014-03-01

There is concern about potential effects of radiofrequency fields generated by mobile phones on cancer risk. Most previous studies have found no association between mobile phone use and acoustic neuroma, although information about long-term use is limited. We conducted a population-based, nation-wide, case-control study of acoustic neuroma in Sweden. Eligible cases were persons aged 20 to 69 years, who were diagnosed between 2002 and 2007. Controls were randomly selected from the population registry, matched on age, sex, and residential area. Postal questionnaires were completed by 451 cases (83%) and 710 controls (65%). Ever having used mobile phones regularly (defined as weekly use for at least 6 months) was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.18 (95% confidence interval = 0.88 to 1.59). The association was weaker for the longest induction time (≥10 years) (1.11 [0.76 to 1.61]) and for regular use on the tumor side (0.98 [0.68 to 1.43]). The OR for the highest quartile of cumulative calling time (≥680 hours) was 1.46 (0.98 to 2.17). Restricting analyses to histologically confirmed cases reduced all ORs; the OR for ≥680 hours was 1.14 (0.63 to 2.07). A similar pattern was seen for cordless land-line phones, although with slightly higher ORs. Analyses of the complete history of laterality of mobile phone revealed considerable bias in laterality analyses. The findings do not support the hypothesis that long-term mobile phone use increases the risk of acoustic neuroma. The study suggests that phone use might increase the likelihood that an acoustic neuroma case is detected and that there could be bias in the laterality analyses performed in previous studies.

PSA modeling of long-term accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgescu, Gabriel; Corenwinder, Francois; Lanore, Jeanne-Marie

2014-01-01

In the context of the extension of PSA scope to include external hazards, in France, both operator (EDF) and IRSN work for the improvement of methods to better take into account in the PSA the accident sequences induced by initiators which affect a whole site containing several nuclear units (reactors, fuel pools,...). These methodological improvements represent an essential prerequisite for the development of external hazards PSA. However, it has to be noted that in French PSA, even before Fukushima, long term accident sequences were taken into account: many insight were therefore used, as complementary information, to enhance the safety level of the plants. IRSN proposed an external events PSA development program. One of the first steps of the program is the development of methods to model in the PSA the long term accident sequences, based on the experience gained. At short term IRSN intends to enhance the modeling of the 'long term' accident sequences induced by the loss of the heat sink or/and the loss of external power supply. The experience gained by IRSN and EDF from the development of several probabilistic studies treating long term accident sequences shows that the simple extension of the mission time of the mitigation systems from 24 hours to longer times is not sufficient to realistically quantify the risk and to obtain a correct ranking of the risk contributions and that treatment of recoveries is also necessary. IRSN intends to develop a generic study which can be used as a general methodology for the assessment of the long term accident sequences, mainly generated by external hazards and their combinations. This first attempt to develop this generic study allowed identifying some aspects, which may be hazard (or combinations of hazards) or related to initial boundary conditions, which should be taken into account for further developments. (authors)

Long-term risks of inadequate management practices on the sustainability of agricultural soils

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vries, de W.; Groenenberg, J.E.; Murányi, A.; Curlík, J.; Sefcík, P.; Römkens, P.F.A.M.; Reinds, G.J.; Bril, J.; Modin, A.K.; Sverdrup, H.U.; Alloway, B.J.

2003-01-01

This report describes the major result of a research project funded by the INCO-Copernicus programma of European Commission under Contract number ERB-IC15-CT98-0133. The study focused on the long-term environmental risk of soil acidification on: (i) mobilisation and leaching and (ii) plant uptake of

Can the Maslach Burnout Inventory and Utrecht Work Engagement Scale be used to screen for risk of long-term sickness absence?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roelen, C. A. M.; van Hoffen, M. F. A.; Groothoff, J. W.; de Bruin, J.; Schaufeli, W. B.; van Rhenen, W.

To investigate the Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey (MBI-GS) and the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES) for their ability to identify non-sicklisted employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA). One-year prospective cohort study including 4,921 employees participating

Can the Maslach Burnout Inventory and Utrecht Work Engagement Scale be used to screen for risk of long-term sickness absence?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roelen, C. A M; van Hoffen, M. F A; Groothoff, J. W.; de Bruin, J.; Schaufeli, W. B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073779563; van Rhenen, W.

2015-01-01

Objectives: To investigate the Maslach Burnout Inventory—General Survey (MBI—GS) and the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES) for their ability to identify non-sicklisted employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA). Methods: One-year prospective cohort study including 4,921

Can the Maslach Burnout Inventory and Utrecht Work Engagement Scale be used to screen for risk of long-term sickness absence?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roelen, C. A. M.; van Hoffen, M. F. A.; Groothoff, J. W.; de Bruin, J.; Schaufeli, W. B.; van Rhenen, W.

2015-01-01

To investigate the Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey (MBI-GS) and the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES) for their ability to identify non-sicklisted employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA). One-year prospective cohort study including 4,921 employees participating

Nutrition-related risk indexes and long-term mortality in noncritically ill inpatients who receive total parenteral nutrition (prospective multicenter study).

Science.gov (United States)

Tapia, María José; Ocón, Julia; Cabrejas-Gómez, Carmen; Ballesteros-Pomar, María D; Vidal-Casariego, Alfonso; Arraiza-Irigoyen, Carmen; Olivares, Josefina; Conde-García, Ma Carmen; García-Manzanares, Álvaro; Botella-Romero, Francisco; Quílez-Toboso, Rosa P; Cabrerizo, Lucio; Rubio, Miguel A; Chicharro, Luisa; Burgos, Rosa; Pujante, Pedro; Ferrer, Mercedes; Zugasti, Ana; Petrina, Estrella; Manjón, Laura; Diéguez, Marta; Carrera, Ma José; Vila-Bundo, Anna; Urgelés, Juan Ramón; Aragón-Valera, Carmen; Sánchez-Vilar, Olga; Bretón, Irene; García-Peris, Pilar; Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Márquez, Efren; del Olmo, Dolores; Pereira, José Luis; Tous, María C; Olveira, Gabriel

2015-10-01

Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is associated with an increased risk of death, in both the short and the long term. The purpose of this study was to determine which nutrition-related risk index predicts long-term mortality better (three years) in patients who receive total parenteral nutrition (TPN). This prospective, multicenter study involved noncritically ill patients who were prescribed TPN during hospitalization. Data were collected on Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), body mass index, albumin and prealbumin, as well as long-term mortality. Over the 1- and 3-year follow-up periods, 174 and 244 study subjects (28.8% and 40.3%) respectively, died. Based on the Cox proportional hazards survival model, the nutrition-related risk indexes most strongly associated with mortality were SGA and albumin (Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Private participation in infrastructure: A risk analysis of long-term contracts in power sector

Science.gov (United States)

Ceran, Nisangul

The objective of this dissertation is to assess whether the private participation in energy sector through long term contracting, such as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) type investments, is an efficient way of promoting efficiency in the economy. To this end; the theoretical literature on the issue is discussed, the experience of several developing countries are examined, and a BOT project, which is undertaken by the Enron company in Turkey, has been studied in depth as a case study. Different risk analysis techniques, including sensitivity and probabilistic risk analysis with the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method have been applied to assess the financial feasibility and risks of the case study project, and to shed light on the level of rent-seeking in the BOT agreements. Although data on rent seeking and corruption is difficult to obtain, the analysis of case study investment using the sensitivity and MCS method provided some information that can be used in assessing the level of rent-seeking in BOT projects. The risk analysis enabled to test the sustainability of the long-term BOT contracts through the analysis of projects financial feasibility with and without the government guarantees in the project. The approach of testing the sustainability of the project under different scenarios is helpful to understand the potential costs and contingent liabilities for the government and project's impact on a country's overall economy. The results of the risk analysis made by the MCS method for the BOT project used as the case study strongly suggest that, the BOT projects does not serve to the interest of the society and transfers substantial amount of public money to the private companies, implying severe governance problems. It is found that not only government but also private sector may be reluctant about full privatization of infrastructure due to several factors such as involvement of large sunk costs, very long time period for returns to be received, political and

Long-term effects of earthquake experience of young persons on cardiovascular disease risk factors

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Na; Wang, Yumei; Yu, Lulu; Song, Mei; Wang, Lan; Ji, Chunpeng

2016-01-01

Introduction The aim of the study was to study the long-term effect on cardiovascular disease risk factors of stress from direct experience of an earthquake as a young person. Material and methods We selected workers born between July 1, 1958 and July 1, 1976 who were examined at Kailuan General Hospital between May and October of 2013. Data on cardiovascular events were taken during the workers’ annual health examination conducted between 2006 and 2007. All subjects were divided into three groups according to their experience of the Tangshan earthquake of July 28, 1976, as follows: control group; exposed group 1 and exposed group 2. We compared cardiovascular disease risk factors between the three groups as well as by gender and age. Results One thousand one hundred and ninety-six workers were included in the final statistical analysis. Among all subjects, resting heart rate (p = 0.003), total cholesterol (p earthquake compared with unexposed controls, but were unrelated to loss of relatives. No significant difference in triglyceride levels was observed between the three groups (p = 0.900). Further refinement showed that the effects were restricted to males 40 years of age or older at the time of analysis, but were due primarily to age at the time of earthquake exposure (p = 0.002, p Earthquake experience in the early years of life has long-term effects on adult resting heart rate, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose, especially among men. PMID:28144258

Cancer risk in long-term users of vitamin K antagonists: A population-based case-control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pottegård, Anton; Friis, Søren; Hallas, Jesper

2013-01-01

performed for selected cancer sites, subgroups and measures of exposure. A total of 238,196 cases and 1,713,176 controls were included. The adjusted OR for cancer associated with long-term VKA exposure was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.95–1.02). Long-term VKA use was associated with increased ORs for alcohol- or obesity-related...... a matched case–control analysis. We used data from four Danish nationwide registers. Cases were all Danish individuals with a first-time cancer diagnosis (except nonmelanoma skin cancer) between 2000 and 2009. For each case, eight controls, matched by birth year and gender, were selected from the source...... cancer sites, whereas we observed a decreased risk of prostate cancer (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.78–0.95). Our study does not support a general chemopreventive effect of VKA drugs. However, in accordance with findings from previous studies, we found an inverse association between use of VKA and prostate cancer....

A least squares approach for efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2017-01-01

The uncertainties related to long-term forecasts of oil prices impose significant financial risk on ventures of oil production. To minimize risk, oil companies are inclined to maximize profit over short-term horizons ranging from months to a few years. In contrast, conventional production...... optimization maximizes long-term profits over horizons that span more than a decade. To address this challenge, the oil literature has introduced short-term versus long-term optimization. Ideally, this problem is solved by a posteriori multi-objective optimization methods that generate an approximation...... the balance between the objectives, leaving an unfulfilled potential to increase profits. To promote efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization, this paper introduces a natural way to characterize desirable Pareto points and proposes a novel least squares (LS) method. Unlike hierarchical...

Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Eimori, Keiko; Endo, Naoto; Uchiyama, Seiji; Takahashi, Yoshinori; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Kei

2016-01-01

Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism. This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH) vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years. Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients.

Exposure to disturbing noise and risk of long-term sickness absence among office workers:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, Thomas; Kristiansen, Jesper; Vinsløv Hansen, Jørgen

2013-01-01

Purpose To investigate the association between selfreported exposure to disturbing noise and risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) for more than two consecutive weeks among office workers. Methods LTSA was measured using register data that were linked to survey data from 2,883 office workers ...

Cardiac damage after treatment of childhood cancer: A long-term follow-up

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velensek, Veronika; Mazic, Uros; Krzisnik, Ciril; Demšar, Damjan; Jazbec, Janez; Jereb, Berta

2008-01-01

With improved childhood cancer cure rate, long term sequelae are becoming an important factor of quality of life. Signs of cardiovascular disease are frequently found in long term survivors of cancer. Cardiac damage may be related to irradiation and chemotherapy. We have evaluated simultaneous influence of a series of independent variables on the late cardiac damage in childhood cancer survivors in Slovenia and identified groups at the highest risk. 211 long-term survivors of different childhood cancers, at least five years after treatment were included in the study. The evaluation included history, physical examination, electrocardiograpy, exercise testing and echocardiograpy. For analysis of risk factors, beside univariate analysis, multivariate classification tree analysis statistical method was used. Patients treated latest, from 1989–98 are at highest risk for any injury to the heart (73%). Among those treated earlier are at the highest risk those with Hodgkin's disease treated with irradiation above 30 Gy and those treated for sarcoma. Among specific forms of injury, patients treated with radiation to the heart area are at highest risk of injury to the valves. Patients treated with large doses of anthracyclines or concomitantly with anthracyclines and alkylating agents are at highest risk of systolic function defect and enlarged heart chambers. Those treated with anthracyclines are at highest risk of diastolic function defect. The time period of the patient's treatment is emerged as an important risk factor for injury of the heart

Prediction of long-term absence due to sickness in employees: development and validation of a multifactorial risk score in two cohort studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Airaksinen, Jaakko; Jokela, Markus; Virtanen, Marianna; Oksanen, Tuula; Koskenvuo, Markku; Pentti, Jaana; Vahtera, Jussi; Kivimäki, Mika

2018-01-24

Objectives This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for long-term sickness absence. Methods Survey responses on work- and lifestyle-related questions from 65 775 public-sector employees were linked to sickness absence records to develop a prediction score for medically-certified sickness absence lasting >9 days and ≥90 days. The score was externally validated using data from an independent population-based cohort of 13 527 employees. For both sickness absence outcomes, a full model including 46 candidate predictors was reduced to a parsimonious model using least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. Predictive performance of the model was evaluated using C-index and calibration plots. Results Variance explained in ≥90-day sickness absence by the full model was 12.5%. In the parsimonious model, the predictors included self-rated health (linear and quadratic term), depression, sex, age (linear and quadratic), socioeconomic position, previous sickness absences, number of chronic diseases, smoking, shift work, working night shift, and quadratic terms for body mass index and Jenkins sleep scale. The discriminative ability of the score was good (C-index 0.74 in internal and 0.73 in external validation). Calibration plots confirmed high correspondence between the predicted and observed risk. In >9-day sickness absence, the full model explained 15.2% of the variance explained, but the C-index of the parsimonious model was poor (<0.65). Conclusions Individuals' risk of a long-term sickness absence that lasts ≥90 days can be estimated using a brief risk score. The predictive performance of this score is comparable to those for established multifactorial risk algorithms for cardiovascular disease, such as the Framingham risk score.

Roles of Vascular and Metabolic Components in Cognitive Dysfunction of Alzheimer disease: Short- and Long-term Modification by Non-genetic Risk Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naoyuki eSato

2013-11-01

Full Text Available It is well known that a specific set of genetic and non-genetic risk factors contributes to the onset of Alzheimer disease (AD. Non-genetic risk factors include diabetes, hypertension in mid-life, and probably dyslipidemia in mid-life. This review focuses on the vascular and metabolic components of non-genetic risk factors. The mechanisms whereby non-genetic risk factors modify cognitive dysfunction are divided into four components, short- and long-term effects of vascular and metabolic factors. These consist of 1 compromised vascular reactivity, 2 vascular lesions, 3 hypo/hyperglycemia, and 4 exacerbated AD histopathological features, respectively. Vascular factors compromise cerebrovascular reactivity in response to neuronal activity and also cause irreversible vascular lesions. On the other hand, representative short-term effects of metabolic factors on cognitive dysfunction occur due to hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia. Non-genetic risk factors also modify the pathological manifestations of AD in the long-term. Therefore, vascular and metabolic factors contribute to aggravation of cognitive dysfunction in AD through short-term and long-term effects. Beta-amyloid could be involved in both vascular and metabolic components. It might be beneficial to support treatment in AD patients by appropriate therapeutic management of non-genetic risk factors, considering the contributions of these four elements to the manifestation of cognitive dysfunction in individual patients, though all components are not always present. It should be clarified how these four components interact with each other. To answer this question, a clinical prospective study that follows up clinical features with respect to these four components: 1 functional MRI or SPECT for cerebrovascular reactivity, 2 MRI for ischemic lesions and atrophy, 3 clinical episodes of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, 4 amyloid-PET and tau-PET for pathological features of AD, would be required.

Roles of vascular and metabolic components in cognitive dysfunction of Alzheimer disease: short- and long-term modification by non-genetic risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Naoyuki; Morishita, Ryuichi

2013-11-05

It is well known that a specific set of genetic and non-genetic risk factors contributes to the onset of Alzheimer disease (AD). Non-genetic risk factors include diabetes, hypertension in mid-life, and probably dyslipidemia in mid-life. This review focuses on the vascular and metabolic components of non-genetic risk factors. The mechanisms whereby non-genetic risk factors modify cognitive dysfunction are divided into four components, short- and long-term effects of vascular and metabolic factors. These consist of (1) compromised vascular reactivity, (2) vascular lesions, (3) hypo/hyperglycemia, and (4) exacerbated AD histopathological features, respectively. Vascular factors compromise cerebrovascular reactivity in response to neuronal activity and also cause irreversible vascular lesions. On the other hand, representative short-term effects of metabolic factors on cognitive dysfunction occur due to hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia. Non-genetic risk factors also modify the pathological manifestations of AD in the long-term. Therefore, vascular and metabolic factors contribute to aggravation of cognitive dysfunction in AD through short-term and long-term effects. β-amyloid could be involved in both vascular and metabolic components. It might be beneficial to support treatment in AD patients by appropriate therapeutic management of non-genetic risk factors, considering the contributions of these four elements to the manifestation of cognitive dysfunction in individual patients, though all components are not always present. It should be clarified how these four components interact with each other. To answer this question, a clinical prospective study that follows up clinical features with respect to these four components: (1) functional MRI or SPECT for cerebrovascular reactivity, (2) MRI for ischemic lesions and atrophy, (3) clinical episodes of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, (4) amyloid-PET and tau-PET for pathological features of AD, would be required.

Long-term sick leave and its risk factors during pregnancy among Danish hospital employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaerlev, Linda; Jacobsen, Lene B; Olsen, Jørn; Bonde, Jens Peter

2004-01-01

The authors sought to describe risk indicators of long-term sick leave during pregnancy among hospital employees. A register-based study was undertaken of 4,852 female hospital employees aged 20-45 years from the second largest hospital in Denmark during 1995-99 based on job titles, working time, sick leave, and births combined with a survey among a total of 773 women who had been pregnant during their employment (response rate 85%). Altogether 236 (31%) were on sick leave for at least 10% of their scheduled work time during their latest pregnancy and 169 (22%) had been absent at least 20% of the time. The pregnant women had an average sickness absence of 6.1 days per month, non-pregnant women 0.95 days per month. Sick leave was more frequent in late than in early gestation. Women employed as nursing aides or hospital orderlies, launderers, and nurses had more sick leave days than other hospital employees. Part-time work, previous sickness absence not related to pregnancy, and previous chronic back pain were risk factors for long-term sick leave as were much walking or standing, long working days, high work level, little practical support from supervisors and colleagues, low job control, much lifting and night or shift work. Sick leave was unrelated to family size, support from the family and number of working years. Long-term sick leave during pregnancy was frequent and to some extent predictable. Efforts should be made to organize work for pregnant women in a manner that optimizes their health and well-being.

Joint association of multimorbidity and work ability with risk of long-term sickness absence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundstrup, Emil; Jakobsen, Markus Due; Mortensen, Ole Steen

2017-01-01

at baseline. The fully adjusted model showed an association between number of chronic diseases and risk of LTSA. This association was stronger among employees with poor work ability (either physical or mental). Compared to employees with no diseases and good physical work ability, the risk estimate for LTSA...... with LTSA appears to be additive. Conclusions: Poor work ability combined with ≥1 chronic diseases is associated with high risk of long-term sickness absence in the general working population. Initiatives to improve or maintain work ability should be highly prioritized to secure sustainable employability...

Improved maternal nutrition decreases children’s long-term risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Robertson, Aileen

Improved maternal nutrition to decrease children’s long-term risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and obesity The nutritional well-being of pregnant women affects not only their health and their fetuses' development but also children's long-term risk of developing NCDs or obesity, according...... to a new report from WHO/Europe. "Good maternal nutrition. The best start in life" was launched under the auspices of the Minister of Health of Latvia during a consultation on maternal nutrition, in Riga on 27–28 June 2016. While the importance of good nutrition in the early development of children has...... – affects not only her child's health as an infant but also the child's risk of obesity and related chronic diseases as an adult. In short, maternal nutrition can truly have an intergenerational impact. Fighting NCDs and obesity through measures to improve maternal nutrition: NCDs are the leading cause...

Elevated rheumatoid factor and long term risk of rheumatoid arthritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Sune F; Bojesen, Stig E; Schnohr, Peter

2012-01-01

To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis.......To test whether elevated concentration of rheumatoid factor is associated with long term development of rheumatoid arthritis....

Long-Term Risk for Noncervical Anogenital Cancer in Women with Previously Diagnosed High-Grade Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sand, Freja Lærke; Munk, Christian; Jensen, Signe Marie

2016-01-01

Background: High-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is essential for developing high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2 and CIN3) and has also been associated with noncervical anogenital cancers. However, limited knowledge exists about the long-term risk for anal, vulvar, and vaginal...

Anaemia and long term mortality in heart failure patients: a retrospective study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Charlot, Mette; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Valeur, Nana

2010-01-01

Anaemia has been demonstrated as a risk factor in patients with heart failure over periods of a few years, but long term data are not available. We examined the long-term risk of anaemia in heart failure patients during 15 years of follow-up.......Anaemia has been demonstrated as a risk factor in patients with heart failure over periods of a few years, but long term data are not available. We examined the long-term risk of anaemia in heart failure patients during 15 years of follow-up....

Long-term acute care hospitals and Georgia Medicaid: Utilization, outcomes, and cost

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evan S. Cole

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Because most research on long-term acute care hospitals has focused on Medicare, the objective of this research is to describe the Georgia Medicaid population who received care at a long-term acute care hospital, the type and volume of services provided by these long-term acute care hospitals, and the costs and outcomes of these services. For those with select respiratory conditions, we descriptively compare costs and outcomes to those of patients who received care for the same services in acute care hospitals. Methods: We describe Georgia Medicaid recipients admitted to a long-term acute care hospital between 2011 and 2012. We compare them to a population of Georgia Medicaid recipients admitted to an acute care hospital for one of five respiratory diagnosis-related groups. Measurements used include patient descriptive information, admissions, diagnosis-related groups, length of stay, place of discharge, 90-day episode costs, readmissions, and patient risk scores. Results: We found that long-term acute care hospital admissions for Medicaid patients were fairly low (470 90-day episodes and restricted to complex cases. We also found that the majority of long-term acute care hospital patients were blind or disabled (71.2%. Compared to patients who stayed at an acute care hospital, long-term acute care hospital patients had higher average risk scores (13.1 versus 9.0, lengths of stay (61 versus 38 days, costs (US$143,898 versus US$115,056, but fewer discharges to the community (28.4% versus 51.8%. Conclusion: We found that the Medicaid population seeking care at long-term acute care hospitals is markedly different than the Medicare populations described in other long-term acute care hospital studies. In addition, our study revealed that Medicaid patients receiving select respiratory care at a long-term acute care hospital were distinct from Medicaid patients receiving similar care at an acute care hospital. Our findings suggest that

Long-term risk of seizures in adult survivors of sepsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Reznik, Michael E; Merkler, Alexander E; Mahta, Ali; Murthy, Santosh B; Claassen, Jan; Kamel, Hooman

2017-10-03

To examine the association between sepsis and the long-term risk of seizures. We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using administrative claims data from all emergency department visits and hospitalizations at nonfederal acute care hospitals in California, Florida, and New York from 2005 to 2013. Using previously validated diagnosis codes, we identified all adult patients hospitalized with sepsis. Our outcome was any emergency department visit or hospitalization for seizure. Poisson regression and demographic data were used to calculate age-, sex-, and race-standardized incidence rate ratios (IRR). To confirm our findings, we used a matched cohort of hospitalized patients without sepsis for comparison and additionally assessed claims data from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries. We identified 842,735 patients with sepsis. The annual incidence of seizure was 1.29% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27%-1.30%) in patients with sepsis vs 0.16% (95% CI 0.16%-0.16%) in the general population (IRR 4.98; 95% CI 4.92-5.04). A secondary analysis using matched hospitalized patients confirmed these findings (IRR 4.33; 95% CI 4.13-4.55), as did a separate analysis of Medicare beneficiaries, in whom we found a similar strength of association (IRR 2.72; 95% CI 2.60-2.83), as we did in patients ≥65 years of age in our primary statewide data (IRR 2.83; 95% CI 2.78-2.88). We found that survivors of sepsis faced a significantly higher long-term risk of seizures than both the general population and other hospitalized patients. Our findings suggest that sepsis is associated with pathways that lead to permanent neurologic sequelae. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Study on mid and long-term strategic plan formulation for newly-constructed NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Lin

2014-01-01

Mid and Long-term strategic plan plays a key role for the management of a newly constructed nuclear power company. Among others, process, goals, and risk management, are the primary concerns during plan preparing. The article analyzed these three areas for Fuqing NPP, including the formulating process for the plan, the mid and long-term goal setting of the company, the major risk analysis and countermeasure selection therefore. Through that solutions and suggestions for strategic plan formulation were concluded for newly-constructed NPP. (author)

Long-Term Exposure to Road Traffic Noise and Nitrogen Dioxide and Risk of Heart Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Mette; Wendelboe Nielsen, Olav; Sajadieh, Ahmad

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although air pollution and road traffic noise have been associated with higher risk of cardiovascular diseases, associations with heart failure have received only little attention. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate whether long-term exposure to road traffic noise and nitrogen dioxid...

Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

2012-05-22

No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

Change of exposure response over time and long-term risk of silicosis among a cohort of Chinese pottery workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yi; Bochmann, Frank; Morfeld, Peter; Ulm, Kurt; Liu, Yuewei; Wang, Heijiao; Yang, Lei; Chen, Weihong

2011-07-01

An analysis was conducted on a cohort of Chinese pottery workers to estimate the exposure-response relationship between respirable crystalline silica dust exposure and the incidence of radiographically diagnosed silicosis, and to estimate the long-term risk of developing silicosis until the age of 65. The cohort comprised 3,250 employees with a median follow-up duration of around 37 years. Incident cases of silicosis were identified via silicosis registries (Chinese X-ray stage I, similar to International Labor Organisation classification scheme profusion category 1/1). Individual exposure to respirable crystalline silica dust was estimated based on over 100,000 historical dust measurements. The association between dust exposure, incidence and long-time risk of silicosis was quantified by Poisson regression analysis adjusted for age and smoking. The risk of silicosis depended not only on the cumulative respirable crystalline silica dust exposures, but also on the time-dependent respirable crystalline silica dust exposure pattern (long-term average concentration, highest annual concentration ever experienced and time since first exposure). A long-term "excess" risk of silicosis of approximately 1.5/1,000 was estimated among workers with all annual respirable crystalline silica dust concentration estimates less than 0.1 mg/m(3), using the German measurement strategy. This study indicates the importance of proper consideration of exposure information in risk quantification in epidemiological studies.

Change of Exposure Response over Time and Long-Term Risk of Silicosis among a Cohort of Chinese Pottery Workers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuewei Liu

2011-07-01

Full Text Available An analysis was conducted on a cohort of Chinese pottery workers to estimate the exposure-response relationship between respirable crystalline silica dust exposure and the incidence of radiographically diagnosed silicosis, and to estimate the long-term risk of developing silicosis until the age of 65. The cohort comprised 3,250 employees with a median follow-up duration of around 37 years. Incident cases of silicosis were identified via silicosis registries (Chinese X-ray stage I, similar to International Labor Organisation classification scheme profusion category 1/1. Individual exposure to respirable crystalline silica dust was estimated based on over 100,000 historical dust measurements. The association between dust exposure, incidence and long-time risk of silicosis was quantified by Poisson regression analysis adjusted for age and smoking. The risk of silicosis depended not only on the cumulative respirable crystalline silica dust exposures, but also on the time-dependent respirable crystalline silica dust exposure pattern (long-term average concentration, highest annual concentration ever experienced and time since first exposure. A long-term “excess” risk of silicosis of approximately 1.5/1,000 was estimated among workers with all annual respirable crystalline silica dust concentration estimates less than 0.1 mg/m3, using the German measurement strategy. This study indicates the importance of proper consideration of exposure information in risk quantification in epidemiological studies.

Short-term versus long-term market opportunities and financial constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrari, Angelo

1999-01-01

This presentation discusses gas developments in Europe, the European Gas Directive, short term vs. long term, and Snam's new challenges. The European gas market is characterized by (1) The role of gas in meeting the demand for energy, which varies greatly from one country to another, (2) A growing market, (3) Decreasing role of domestic production, and (4) Increasing imports. Within the European Union, the Gas Directive aims to transform single national markets into one integrated European market by introducing third party access to the network for eligible clients as a means of increasing the competition between operators. The Gas Directive would appear to modify the form of the market rather than its size, and in particular the sharing of responsibility and risk among operators. The market in the future will offer operators the possibility to exploit opportunities deriving mainly from demands for increased flexibility. Opportunities linked to entrepreneurial initiatives require long-term investments characteristic of the gas business. Risks and opportunities must be balanced evenly between different operators. If everyone takes on their own risks and responsibilities, this means a wider distribution of the risks of long-term vs. short-term, currently borne by the gas companies that are integrated, into a market that tends to favour the short-term. A gradual liberalization process should allow incumbent operators to gradually diversify their activities in new gas market areas or enter new business activities. They could move beyond their local and European boundaries in pursuit of an international dimension. The market will have to make the transition from the national to the European dimension: as an example, Snam covers 90% of the Italian market, but its share of an integrated European market will be about 15%

Using the Internet as a source of information and support: a discussion paper on the risks and benefits for children and young people with long-term conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hewitt-Taylor, Jaqui

2014-12-16

Children and young people who have long-term conditions are likely to seek health-related information via the Internet. Because of their continuing contact with children with such conditions, primary care practitioners may be well placed to discuss with them and their families the risks and benefits of accessing information online. This includes not only the relative merits of particular sites but also more general online safety issues. To achieve this, it may be helpful for primary care practitioners to consider how they view risk in general, the risks associated with the Internet and the vulnerabilities of children and young people, particularly those with long-term conditions.

Risk-based approach to long-term safety assessment for near surface disposal of radioactive waste in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, C.W.; Kim, K.I.; Lee, J.I.

2000-01-01

This paper presents the Korean regulatory approach to safety assessment consistent with probabilistic, risk-based long-term safety requirements for near surface disposal facilities. The approach is based on: (1) From the standpoint of risk limitation, normal processes and probabilistic disruptive events should be integrated in a similar manner in terms of potential exposures; and (2) The uncertainties inherent in the safety assessment should be reduced using appropriate exposure scenarios. In addition, this paper emphasizes the necessity of international guidance for quantifying potential exposures and the corresponding risks from radioactive waste disposal. (author)

Timing and risk of mood disorders requiring psychotropics in long-term survivors of adult cancers: A nationwide cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Wen-Kuan; Juang, Yeong-Yuh; Chung, Chia-Chi; Chang, Shu-Hao; Chang, John Wen-Cheng; Lin, Yung-Chang; Wang, Hung-Ming; Chang, Hsien-Kun; Chen, Jen-Shi; Tsai, Chieh-Sheng; Yu, Kuang-Hui; Kuo, Chang-Fu; See, Lai-Chu

2018-08-15

The increasing number of long-term cancer survivors over the past few decades poses the challenge of mental health care needs. However, little is known about risks of mood disorders in long-term cancer survivors. Long-term survivors (≥5 years) of adult cancers (LSAC) (n = 190,748) newly diagnosed between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2007 were matched with one control. The primary outcome was diagnosis of mood disorders requiring psychotropics. Cumulative incidences and sub-hazard ratios (SHR) were calculated and multivariate analyses were conducted after accounting for mortality. The mood disorder risk was significantly higher in the LSAC cohort than in the control cohort (adjusted SHR = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13-1.18, P < 0.001). Patients with certain cancer types were at increased risk, particularly in the first 2 years after diagnosis. However, patients with head and neck cancers or esophageal cancers had a higher risk after the 5-year follow-up period. Multivariate analysis indicated that being female, aged 40-59 years, with more than two primary cancers, receiving two or more treatment modalities, having CCI scores higher than 3, a higher urbanization level, and lower monthly income were independently associated with an increased risk of mood disorders. Some potential confounders such as lifestyle factors were not available in the study. These findings call for increased mental health awareness not only in the early years after the cancer diagnosis, but also during long-term follow-up for certain cancer subtypes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel inclusion of intermittent generation resources in long term energy auctions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marambio, Rodrigo; Rudnick, Hugh

2017-01-01

Long term energy auctions are positioning as a valuable tool in order to attract new investments into power systems, especially in Latin American countries where emergent economies characteristics and their correspondent risks are usually present. Even though the focus of these auctions is the long term, there are short term issues involved which actual auction designs fail to include, resulting in an energy allocation that is not necessarily optimal for the system, a condition which becomes more evident in the presence of intermittent renewable technologies. A novel mechanism is formulated to obtain the optimal allocation in long term energy auctions, considering short term generation profiles from both intermittent and conventional base load technologies, and also their risk aversions. The proposed mechanism is developed and simulations are made for some scenarios in the Chilean power market, with different levels of renewable penetration. Significant cost savings are achieved for the final consumers in relation to energy purchases, in comparison with a mechanism that follows the demand profile. As more renewable intermittent capacity enters the power system it is evident the need for changes in the energy auctions allocation mechanisms, including elements to exploit the synergies among participants in the short term. - Highlights: • Risk management consideration in technology neutral auctions allocation. • Allocation mechanism in technology neutral auctions with intermittent technologies. • Renewable and conventional technologies energy auction offer curves. • Increase bid prices in auctions as a consequence of solar technology support.

Remote Lower White Matter Integrity Increases the Risk of Long-Term Cognitive Impairment After Ischemic Stroke in Young Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaapsmeerders, Pauline; Tuladhar, Anil M; Arntz, Renate M; Franssen, Sieske; Maaijwee, Noortje A M; Rutten-Jacobs, Loes C A; Schoonderwaldt, Hennie C; Dorresteijn, Lucille D A; van Dijk, Ewoud J; Kessels, Roy P C; de Leeuw, Frank-Erik

2016-10-01

Poststroke cognitive impairment occurs frequently in young patients with ischemic stroke (18 through 50 years of age). Accumulating data suggest that stroke is associated with lower white matter integrity remote from the stroke impact area, which might explain why some patients have good long-term cognitive outcome and others do not. Given the life expectancy of decades in young patients, we therefore investigated remote white matter in relation to long-term cognitive function. We included all consecutive first-ever ischemic stroke patients, left/right hemisphere, without recurrent stroke or transient ischemic attack during follow-up, aged 18 through 50 years, admitted to our university medical center between 1980 and 2010. One hundred seventeen patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging scanning including a T1-weighted scan, a diffusion tensor imaging scan, and completed a neuropsychological assessment. Patients were compared with a matched stroke-free control group (age, sex, and education matched). Cognitive impairment was defined as >1.5 SD below the mean cognitive index score of controls and no cognitive impairment as ≤1 SD. Tract-Based Spatial Statistics was used to assess the white matter integrity (fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity). About 11 years after ischemic stroke, lower remote white matter integrity was associated with a worse long-term cognitive performance. A lower remote white matter integrity, even in the contralesional hemisphere, was observed in cognitively impaired patients (n=25) compared with cognitively unimpaired patients (n=71). These findings indicate that although stroke has an acute onset, it might have long lasting effects on remote white matter integrity and thereby increases the risk of long-term cognitive impairment. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

2017-11-01

Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Considerations on long-term immuno-intervention in the treatment of multiple sclerosis: an expert opinion.

Science.gov (United States)

Grigoriadis, Nikolaos; Linnebank, Michael; Alexandri, Nektaria; Muehl, Sarah; Hofbauer, Günther F L

2016-10-01

As management of multiple sclerosis (MS) requires life-long treatment with disease-modifying agents, any risks associated with long-term use should be considered when evaluating therapeutic options. Immune cells of the innate and adaptive immune systems play various roles in the pathogenesis of MS. MS therapies affect the immune system, each with a unique mode of action, and consequently possess different long-term safety profiles. Rare, but serious safety concerns, including an increased risk of infection and cancer, have been associated with immunosuppressant use. The risks associated with newer immunosuppressive agents, which target specific elements of MS disease pathophysiology, are not yet fully established as the duration of clinical trials is relatively short and post-marketing experience is limited. Non-immunosuppressants used to treat MS have well-defined safety profiles established over a large number of patient-years demonstrating them to be well-tolerated long-term treatment options. When considering the long-term use of disease-modifying agents for treating MS, classification as immunosuppressants or non-immunosuppressants can be useful when evaluating potential risks associated with chronic use. A successful therapeutic strategy for any serious, chronic disease such as MS should weigh effectiveness versus long-term safety of available treatments.

Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy V.P. Bliss

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke.

Cost tradeoffs in consequence management at nuclear power plants: A risk based approach to setting optimal long-term interdiction limits for regulatory analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mubayi, V.

1995-05-01

The consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants can be limited by various protective actions, including emergency responses and long-term measures, to reduce exposures of affected populations. Each of these protective actions involve costs to society. The costs of the long-term protective actions depend on the criterion adopted for the allowable level of long-term exposure. This criterion, called the ''long term interdiction limit,'' is expressed in terms of the projected dose to an individual over a certain time period from the long-term exposure pathways. The two measures of offsite consequences, latent cancers and costs, are inversely related and the choice of an interdiction limit is, in effect, a trade-off between these two measures. By monetizing the health effects (through ascribing a monetary value to life lost), the costs of the two consequence measures vary with the interdiction limit, the health effect costs increasing as the limit is relaxed and the protective action costs decreasing. The minimum of the total cost curve can be used to calculate an optimal long term interdiction limit. The calculation of such an optimal limit is presented for each of five US nuclear power plants which were analyzed for severe accident risk in the NUREG-1150 program by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

Preeclampsia and long-term risk of cardiovascular disease: what do obstetrician-gynecologists know?

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Preeclampsia (PE), a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy affects 2-8% of women and is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk later in life. There is little information about the knowledge of obstetrician-gynecologists in German outpatient care setting regarding the future health risk of PE and knowledge of the current guidelines on treatment and counseling patients post PE. This study aimed to assess whether obstetrician-gynecologists are aware of PE’s association with maternal long-term adverse outcomes and providing appropriate counseling. Methods A random sample of 500 obstetrician-gynecologists in the federal state of Lower Saxony was mailed a survey and a reminder with a second copy of the survey. The questionnaire elicited both personal information, and knowledge on future disease risks, e.g. cardiovascular disease (CVD) and current guidelines as well as on counseling practice. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the responses. Results A total of 212 obstetrician-gynecologists (42.4%) responded to the questionnaire. A large proportion of physicians stated that PE was associated with a higher risk for the development for hypertension (86.6%), stroke (78.5%) and kidney disease (78.0%). Of the participants 75.8% reported that women after PE have a shorter life expectancy. Respondents with knowledge of the current guidelines of the German Association of Obstetrics and Gynecology concerning follow up and risk management of PE (45.2%) were more often aware of the development of CVD and stroke and counseled patients on self -blood-pressure measurement, meaning and long-term-risks of PE and attached importance to family history of PE compared to physicians with no knowledge of the guidelines. Conclusion Although the majority of obstetrician-gynecologists were aware of higher CVD risk after PE, weaknesses exist in the follow up care and counseling of these patients. These deficiencies would be amendable to directed educational

Nutrition in children with long-term health conditions

OpenAIRE

Westwood, A

2015-01-01

Long-term health conditions (LTHCs) in children may affect nutrition and growth by means of multiple mechanisms. Both undernutrition and overweight/obesity are risk factors. Direct effects of the condition that may cause undernutrition include increased resting energy expenditure, excess losses through malabsorption, difficulty ingesting food, and decreased appetite. Indirect effects of LTHCs may be mediated by learnt or adaptive behaviours, secondary anorexia, inappropriate diets, or conditi...

Long-Term Prognosis of Plantar Fasciitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Liselotte; Krogh, Thøger Persson; Ellingsen, Torkell

2018-01-01

, exercise-induced symptoms, bilateral heel pain, fascia thickness, and presence of a heel spur) could predict long-term outcomes, (3) to assess the long-term ultrasound (US) development in the fascia, and (4) to assess whether US-guided corticosteroid injections induce atrophy of the heel fat pad. Study....... The risk was significantly greater for women (P heel...... regardless of symptoms and had no impact on prognosis, and neither did the presence of a heel spur. Only 24% of asymptomatic patients had a normal fascia on US at long-term follow-up. A US-guided corticosteroid injection did not cause atrophy of the heel fat pad. Our observational study did not allow us...

The long-term risk of malignant astrocytic tumors after structural brain injury--a nationwide cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munch, Tina Noergaard; Gørtz, Sanne; Wohlfahrt, Jan

2015-01-01

% CI: 0.49-0.90) compared with no injury. The specific long-term risks by type of injury were: traumatic brain injury RR = 0.32 (95% CI: 0.10-0.75); cerebral ischemic infarction RR = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.47-0.96); and intracerebral hemorrhage RR = 1.39 (95% CI: 0.64-2.60). CONCLUSION: We found no evidence......BACKGROUND: Neoplastic transformation of damaged astrocytes has been proposed as a possible pathological mechanism behind malignant astrocytic tumors. This study investigated the association between structural brain injuries causing reactive astrogliosis and long-term risk for malignant astrocytic...... tumors. METHODS: The cohort consisted of all individuals living in Denmark between 1978 and 2011. The personal identification number assigned to all individuals allowed retrieval of diagnoses of traumatic brain injury, cerebral ischemic infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage from the National Patient...

Vaccination for the expatriate and long-term traveler.

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, Suzanne M; Shoff, William H

2014-06-01

Duration of travel is an important factor in addressing travel health safety due to cumulative risk of exposure to illness and injury. The diverse group of expatriate and long-term business and leisure travelers present a different spectrum of issues for the travel medicine practitioner to address during consultation than does the short-term traveler, due to changes in travel patterns and activities, lifestyle alterations, and increased interaction with local populations. Immunization provides one safe and reliable method of preventing infectious illness in this group. We review travel patterns and available data on illnesses that they may be exposed to, including the increased risk of certain vaccine-preventable illnesses. We review the pre-travel management of these travelers, particularly the increased risk of certain vaccine-preventable illnesses as it applies to routine vaccines, recommended travel vaccines and required travel vaccines.

Long-term future risk of severe exacerbations: Distinct 5-year trajectories of problematic asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

Yii, A C A; Tan, J H Y; Lapperre, T S; Chan, A K W; Low, S Y; Ong, T H; Tan, K L; Chotirmall, S H; Sterk, P J; Koh, M S

2017-09-01

Assessing future risk of exacerbations is an important component of asthma management. Existing studies have investigated short- but not long-term risk. Problematic asthma patients with unfavorable long-term disease trajectory and persistently frequent severe exacerbations need to be identified early to guide treatment. To identify distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates among "problematic asthma" patients and develop a risk score to predict the most unfavorable trajectory. Severe exacerbation rates over five years for 177 "problematic asthma" patients presenting to a specialist asthma clinic were tracked. Distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates were identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Baseline predictors of trajectory were identified and used to develop a clinical risk score for predicting the most unfavorable trajectory. Three distinct trajectories were found: 58.5% had rare intermittent severe exacerbations ("infrequent"), 32.0% had frequent severe exacerbations at baseline but improved subsequently ("nonpersistently frequent"), and 9.5% exhibited persistently frequent severe exacerbations, with the highest incidence of near-fatal asthma ("persistently frequent"). A clinical risk score composed of ≥2 severe exacerbations in the past year (+2 points), history of near-fatal asthma (+1 point), body mass index ≥25kg/m 2 (+1 point), obstructive sleep apnea (+1 point), gastroesophageal reflux (+1 point), and depression (+1 point) was predictive of the "persistently frequent" trajectory (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.84, sensitivity 72.2%, specificity 81.1% using cutoff ≥3 points). The trajectories and clinical risk score had excellent performance in an independent validation cohort. Patients with problematic asthma follow distinct illness trajectories over a period of five years. We have derived and validated a clinical risk score that accurately identifies patients who will have persistently

Long-term interleukin-6 levels and subsequent risk of coronary heart disease: two new prospective studies and a systematic review.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Danesh

2008-04-01

Full Text Available The relevance to coronary heart disease (CHD of cytokines that govern inflammatory cascades, such as interleukin-6 (IL-6, may be underestimated because such mediators are short acting and prone to fluctuations. We evaluated associations of long-term circulating IL-6 levels with CHD risk (defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or fatal CHD in two population-based cohorts, involving serial measurements to enable correction for within-person variability. We updated a systematic review to put the new findings in context.Measurements were made in samples obtained at baseline from 2,138 patients who had a first-ever nonfatal MI or died of CHD during follow-up, and from 4,267 controls in two cohorts comprising 24,230 participants. Correction for within-person variability was made using data from repeat measurements taken several years apart in several hundred participants. The year-to-year variability of IL-6 values within individuals was relatively high (regression dilution ratios of 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28-0.53, over 4 y, and 0.35, 95% CI 0.23-0.48, over 12 y. Ignoring this variability, we found an odds ratio for CHD, adjusted for several established risk factors, of 1.46 (95% CI 1.29-1.65 per 2 standard deviation (SD increase of baseline IL-6 values, similar to that for baseline C-reactive protein. After correction for within-person variability, the odds ratio for CHD was 2.14 (95% CI 1.45-3.15 with long-term average ("usual" IL-6, similar to those for some established risk factors. Increasing IL-6 levels were associated with progressively increasing CHD risk. An updated systematic review of electronic databases and other sources identified 15 relevant previous population-based prospective studies of IL-6 and clinical coronary outcomes (i.e., MI or coronary death. Including the two current studies, the 17 available prospective studies gave a combined odds ratio of 1.61 (95% CI 1.42-1.83 per 2 SD increase in baseline IL-6

Long-term contracts vs. short-term trade of natural gas - a European perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuhoff, Karsten; Hirschhausen, Christian von

2005-01-01

This paper analyses the economics of long-term gas contracts under changing institutional conditions, mainly gas sector liberalisation. The paper is motivated by the increasingly tense debate in continental Europe, UK and the US on the security of long-term gas supply. We discuss the main issues regarding long-term contracts, i.e. the changing role of the flexibility clause, the effect of abandoning the destination clause, and the strategic behaviour of producers between long-term sales and spot-sales. The literature suggests consumers and producers benefit from risk hedging through long-term contracts. Furthermore long-term contracts may reduce exercise of market power. Our analysis adds an additional benefit if the long-run demand elasticity is significantly lower than the short-run elasticity, both strategic producers and consumers benefit from lower prices and larger market volume. Some policy implications of the findings are also discussed. (Author)

Long-term proton pump inhibitor therapy and falls and fractures in elderly women: a prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Joshua R; Barre, Deka; Zhu, Kun; Ivey, Kerry L; Lim, Ee Mun; Hughes, Jeff; Prince, Richard L

2014-11-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are widely used in the elderly. Recent studies have suggested that long-term PPI therapy is associated with fractures in the elderly, however the mechanism remains unknown. We investigated the association between long-term PPI therapy ≥1 year and fracture risk factors including bone structure, falls, and balance-related function in a post hoc analysis of a longitudinal population-based prospective cohort of elderly postmenopausal women and replicated the findings in a second prospective study of falling in elderly postmenopausal women. Long-term PPI therapy was associated with increased risk of falls and fracture-related hospitalizations; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.17; 95% CI, 1.25-3.77; p = 0.006 and 1.95; 95% CI, 1.20-3.16; p = 0.007, respectively. In the replication study, long-term PPI use was associated with an increased risk of self-reported falling; AOR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.00-2.27; p = 0.049. No association of long-term PPI therapy with bone structure was observed; however, questionnaire-assessed falls-associated metrics such as limiting outdoor activity (p = 0.002) and indoor activity (p = 0.001) due to fear of falling, dizziness (p risk in subjects on long-term PPI therapy. This increase in fracture risk in elderly women, already at high risk of fracture, appears to be mediated via increased falls risk and falling rather than impaired bone structure and should be carefully considered when prescribing long-term PPI therapy. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Health incentive research and social justice: does the risk of long term harms to systematically disadvantaged groups bear consideration?

Science.gov (United States)

Wild, Verina; Pratt, Bridget

2017-03-01

The ethics of health incentive research-a form of public health research-are not well developed, and concerns of justice have been least examined. In this paper, we explore what potential long term harms in relation to justice may occur as a result of such research and whether they should be considered as part of its ethical evaluation. 'Long term harms' are defined as harms that contribute to existing systematic patterns of disadvantage for groups. Their effects are experienced on a long term basis, persisting even once an incentive research project ends. We will first establish that three categories of such harms potentially arise as a result of health incentive interventions. We then argue that the risk of these harms also constitutes a morally relevant consideration for health incentive research and suggest who may be responsible for assessing and mitigating these risks. We propose that responsibility should be assigned on the basis of who initiates health incentive research projects. Finally, we briefly describe possible strategies to prevent or mitigate the risk of long term harms to members of disadvantaged groups, which can be employed during the design, conduct and dissemination of research projects. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Short- and Long-Term Stroke Risk after Urgent Management of Transient Ischaemic Attack: The Bologna TIA Clinical Pathway.

Science.gov (United States)

Guarino, Maria; Rondelli, Francesca; Favaretto, Elisabetta; Stracciari, Andrea; Filippini, Massimo; Rinaldi, Rita; Zele, Ivana; Sartori, Michelangelo; Faggioli, Gianluca; Mondini, Susanna; Donti, Andrea; Strocchi, Enrico; Degli Esposti, Daniela; Muscari, Antonio; Veronesi, Maddalena; D'Addato, Sergio; Spinardi, Luca; Faccioli, Luca; Pastore Trossello, Marco; Cirignotta, Fabio

2015-01-01

Rapid management can reduce the short stroke risk after transient ischaemic attack (TIA), but the long-term effect is still little known. We evaluated 3-year vascular outcomes in patients with TIA after urgent care. We prospectively enrolled all consecutive patients with TIA diagnosed by a vascular neurologist and referred to our emergency department (ED). Expedited assessment and best secondary prevention was within 24 h. Endpoints were stroke within 90 days, and stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death at 12, 24 and 36 months. Between August 2010 and July 2013, we evaluated 686 patients with suspected TIA; 433 (63%) patients had confirmed TIA. Stroke at 90 days was 2.07% (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-3.9) compared with the ABCD2-predicted risk of 9.1%. The long-term stroke risk was 2.6% (95% CI, 1.1-4.2), 3.7% (95% CI, 1.6-5.9) and 4.4% (95% CI, 1.9-6.8) at 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively. The composite outcome of stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death was 3.5% (95% CI, 1.7-5.1), 4.9% (95% CI, 2.5-7.4), and 5.6% (95% CI, 2.8-8.3) at 12, 24, and 36 months, respectively. TIA expedited management driven by vascular neurologists was associated with a marked reduction in the expected early stroke risk and low long-term risk of stroke and other vascular events. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Offspring preterm birth and birth size are related to long-term risk of maternal diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Naver, Klara Vinsand; Secher, Niels Jørgen; Ovesen, Per Glud

2013-01-01

The aim of the study is to investigate the association between gestational age, birth size, and the long-term risk of maternal diabetes. We conducted a nation-wide prospective follow-up study of the cohort of all Danish women with a singleton delivery in 1982/1983 (index delivery) and no history...

Efficacy of modest dose irradiation in combination with long-term endocrinal treatment for high-risk prostate cancer. A preliminary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasaki, Tomonari; Nakamura, Katsumasa; Shioyama, Yoshiyuki

2004-01-01

Although radiotherapy in combination with endocrinal manipulation has been identified as an effective treatment for patients with high-risk prostate cancer, the optimal dose for locoregional control of prostate cancer in combination with hormonal therapy has not yet been determined. The efficacy of modest doses of irradiation (60-62 Gy) combined with long-term endocrinal treatment for patients with high-risk prostate cancer (defined as a pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level greater than 20 ng/ml or a Gleason's score of 8-10 or T3-T4 disease) was analyzed in 60 Japanese patients. The patients included in this study had received radical radiotherapy with long-term endocrinal manipulation in the period between 1993 and 2000. The median age of the patients was 70 years (range, 56-83). Neoadjuvant hormonal therapy with a median duration of 3.9 months was performed prior to radiotherapy, and hormonal therapy was continued until recurrence. A median dose of 61.4 Gy (range, 44-71.4) was delivered to the prostate. Pelvic node irradiation was performed in 49 patients (81.6%). After a median follow-up period of 28.5 months, the overall survival, cause-specific survival and biochemical relapse-free survival at 3 years were 94.4%, 96% and 89.8%, respectively. Local failure was observed in one patient, distant metastases were observed in three patients and a late toxic effect greater than Grade 2 was not observed in any patients. This study, though preliminary due to a short-term follow-up period, reveals the possibility that modest doses of irradiation combined with long-term endocrinal treatment could be an effective means of achieving excellent local control of high-risk prostate cancer. (author)

Radiofrequency ablation of accessory pathways in patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome: long-term risk of mortality and coronary events.

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Wongcharoen, Wanwarang; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Yun-Yu; Chao, Tze-Fan; Chen, Pei-Chun; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Chen, Shih-Ann

2017-06-10

The long-term outcomes of radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) in patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW) remain unclear. We investigated the impact of RFCA on the long-term risk of coronary events and mortality in WPW patients. We conducted a prospective cohort study utilizing the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Between 2000 and 2003, WPW patients with no prior coronary artery disease (CAD) history, aged over 18 years, who underwent RFCA were identified. WPW patients without RFCA were matched with propensity-score 1:4 matching for confounding coronary risk factors. The study outcomes were total mortality and coronary events. A total of 1524 matched non-ablated WPW patients (Group 1) and 381 ablated WPW patients (Group 2) were included. After a mean follow-up of 9.6 ± 2.9 and 10.3 ± 1.9 years, respectively, ablation group demonstrated a lower incidence of mortality compared with non-ablation group (17 vs. 26/1000 person-years, P < 0.001; adjusted HR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.44-0.7). However, ablation group had a higher incidence of coronary events compared with non-ablation group (47 vs. 82/1000 person-years, P < 0.001; adjusted HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.4-2.04). The ablation-treated WPW patients had lower risk of total mortality but higher risk of coronary events than non-ablated WPW patients during the long-term follow-up. Coronary artery injury produced by RFCA may account for the increased risk of coronary events. Therefore, the ablation strategies to avoid coronary artery injury should be implemented. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Long-term outcome after early repair of iatrogenic bile duct injury

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stilling, Nicolaj M; Fristrup, Claus; Wettergren, André

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the peri-operative and long-term outcome after early repair with a hepaticojejunostomy (HJ). METHODS: Between 1995 and 2010, a nationwide, retrospective multi-centre study was conducted. All iatrogenic bile duct injury (BDI) sustained...... during a cholecystectomy and repaired with HJ in the five Hepato-Pancreatico-Biliary centres in Denmark were included. RESULTS: In total, 139 patients had an HJ repair. The median time from the BDI to reconstruction was 5 days. A concomitant vascular injury was identified in 26 cases (19%). Post...... with BDI repaired by early HJ we found a considerable risk of long-term complications (e.g. 30% stricture rate) and mortality in both the short- and the long-term perspective....

Long-term outcome of primary endoscopic realignment for bulbous urethral injuries: risk factors of urethral stricture.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Ill Young; Lee, Jea Whan; Park, Seung Chol; Rim, Joung Sik

2012-12-01

Although endoscopic realignment has been accepted as a standard treatment for urethral injuries, the long-term follow-up data on this procedure are not sufficient. We report the long-term outcome of primary endoscopic realignment in bulbous urethral injuries. Patients with bulbous urethral injuries were treated by primary endoscopic realignment between 1991 and 2005. The operative procedure included suprapubic cystostomy and transurethral catheterization using a guide wire, within 72 hours of injury. The study population included 51 patients with a minimum follow-up duration of 5 years. The most common causes of the injuries were straddle injury from falling down (74.5%), and pelvic bone fracture (7.8%). Gross hematuria was the most common complaint (92.2%). Twenty-three patients (45.1%) had complete urethral injuries. The mean time to operation after the injury was 38.8±43.2 hours. The mean operation time and mean indwelling time of a urethral Foley catheter were 55.5±37.6 minutes and 22.0±11.9 days, respectively. Twenty out of 51 patients (39.2%) were diagnosed with urethral stricture in 89.1±36.6 months after surgery. A multivariate analysis revealed that young age and operation time were independent risk factors for strictures as a complication of urethral realignment (hazard ratio [HR], 6.554, P=0.032; HR, 6.206, P=0.035). Urethral stricture commonly developed as a postoperative complication of primary endoscopic urethral realignment for bulbous urethral injury, especially in young age and long operation time.

Long-term effects of islet transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes-Walker, D Jane; Kay, Thomas W H

2016-10-01

Islet transplantation has made great progress in recent years. This is a remarkable technical feat but raises the question of what the long-term benefits and risks are for type I diabetes recipients. Graft survival continues to improve, and recent multicenter studies show that islet transplantation is particularly effective to prevent hypoglycemic events even in those who do not become insulin-independent and to achieve excellent glycemic control. Concerns include histocompatability leucocyte antigen (HLA) sensitization and other risks including from immunosuppression that islet transplantation shares with other forms of allotransplantation. Reversal of hypoglycemia unawareness and protection from severe hypoglycemia events are two of the main benefits of islet transplantation and they persist for the duration of graft function. Islet transplantation compares favorably with other therapies for those with hypoglycemia unawareness, although new technologies have not been tested head-to-head with transplantation. HLA sensitization increases with time after transplantation especially if immunosuppression is ceased and is a risk for those who may require future transplantation as well as being associated with loss of graft function.

One-year adherence to warfarin treatment for venous thromboembolism in high-risk patients and its association with long-term risk of recurrent events.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shih-Yin; Wu, Ning; Gulseth, Michael; LaMori, Joyce; Bookhart, Brahim K; Boulanger, Luke; Fields, Larry; Schein, Jeff

2013-05-01

Warfarin is the predominant oral anticoagulant used for the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) events. However, its long-term use is complicated by the need to manage the drug within a narrow therapeutic range and by possible food and drug interactions. To examine the association between 1-year adherence, measured through compliance with and persistence on warfarin treatment for VTE, and long-term risk of recurrent events among patients at high risk. Medical and pharmacy claims for patients with commercial or Medicare supplemental insurance in the Thomson Reuters MarketScan database were analyzed. Adult patients with medical claims with an associated VTE diagnosis between January 1, 2006, and March 31, 2008, were identified. The index date was defined as the date of the first observed VTE claim or the date of discharge if the index event was a hospital stay. High-risk patients (patients with cancer, or noncancer patients who did not have reversible risk factors during the 3-month period prior to the index date) who filled a warfarin prescription within 2 weeks of the index date were included. Persistence was evaluated in terms of discontinuation, defined as a 90-day gap in warfarin supply during a 1-year assessment period following the index date. Compliance was measured by the proportion of days covered (PDC) over the 1-year assessment period, with PDC less than 0.8 defined as noncompliance. Recurrent VTE events were identified as hospitalizations where VTE was the primary diagnosis after the 1-year assessment period and until patients were lost to follow-up. The association between adherence to warfarin therapy and VTE recurrence was evaluated descriptively via Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for patient demographic and clinical characteristics. A similar analysis using the medication possession ratio (MPR) as a measure of compliance was also performed in a subset of patients who had filled at least 2 warfarin

Physical capacity and risk for long-term sickness absence: a prospective cohort study among 8664 female health care workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Charlotte Diana Nørregaard; Andersen, Lars Louis; Clausen, Thomas; Strøyer, Jesper; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Holtermann, Andreas

2015-05-01

To assess the prospective associations between self-reported physical capacity and risk of long-term sickness absence among female health care workers. Female health care workers answered a questionnaire about physical capacity and were followed in a national register of sickness absence lasting for two or more consecutive weeks during 1-year follow-up. Using Cox regression hazard ratio analyses adjusted for age, smoking, body mass index, physical workload, job seniority, psychosocial work conditions, and previous sickness absence, we modeled risk estimates for sickness absence from low and medium physical capacity. Low and medium aerobic fitness, low muscle strength, low flexibility, and low overall physical capacity significantly increased the risk for sickness absence with 20% to 34% compared with health care workers with high capacity. Low physical capacity increases the risk of long-term sickness absence among female health care workers.

Gamma knife radiosurgery in patients with persistent acromegaly or Cushing's disease: long-term risk of hypopituitarism.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen-Inbar, Or; Ramesh, Arjun; Xu, Zhiyuan; Vance, Mary Lee; Schlesinger, David; Sheehan, Jason P

2016-04-01

For patient with a recurrent or residual acromegaly or Cushing's disease (CD) after resection, gamma knife radiosurgery (GKRS) is often used. Hypopituitarism is the most common adverse effect after GKRS treatment. The paucity of studies with long-term follow-up has hampered understanding of the latent risks of hypopituitarism in patients with acromegaly or CD. We report the long-term risks of hypopituitarism for patients treated with GKRS for acromegaly or CD. From a prospectively created, IRB-approved database, we identified all patients with acromegaly or CD treated with GKRS at the University of Virginia from 1989 to 2008. Only patients with a minimum endocrine follow-up of 60 months were included. The median follow-up is 159·5 months (60·1-278). Thorough radiological and endocrine assessments were performed immediately before GKRS and at regular follow-up intervals. New onset of hypopituitarism was defined as pituitary hormone deficits after GKRS requiring corresponding hormone replacement. Sixty patients with either acromegaly or CD were included. Median tumour volume at time of GKRS was 1·3 cm(3) (0·3-13·4), and median margin dose was 25 Gy (6-30). GKRS-induced new pituitary deficiency occurred in 58·3% (n = 35) of patients. Growth hormone deficiency was most common (28·3%, n = 17). The actuarial overall rates of hypopituitarism at 3, 5 and 10 years were 10%, 21·7% and 53·3%, respectively. The median time to hypopituitarism was 61 months after GKRS (range, 12-160). Cavernous sinus invasion of the tumour was found to correlate with the occurrence of a new or progressive hypopituitarism after GKRS (P = 0·018). Delayed hypopituitarism increases as a function of time after radiosurgery. Hormone axes appear to vary in terms of radiosensitivity. Patients with adenoma in the cavernous sinus are more prone to develop loss of pituitary function after GKRS. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Late renal toxicity of treatment for childhood malignancy: risk factors, long-term outcomes, and surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Skinner, Roderick

2018-02-01

Chronic glomerular and tubular nephrotoxicity is reported in 20-50% and 20-25%, respectively, of children and adolescents treated with ifosfamide and 60-80% and 10-30%, respectively, of those given cisplatin. Up to 20% of children display evidence of chronic glomerular damage after unilateral nephrectomy for a renal tumour. Overall, childhood cancer survivors have a ninefold higher risk of developing renal failure compared with their siblings. Such chronic nephrotoxicity may have multiple causes, including chemotherapy, radiotherapy exposure to kidneys, renal surgery, supportive care drugs and tumour-related factors. These cause a wide range of chronic glomerular and tubular toxicities, often with potentially severe clinical sequelae. Many risk factors for developing nephrotoxicity, mostly patient and treatment related, have been described, but we remain unable to predict all episodes of renal damage. This implies that other factors may be involved, such as genetic polymorphisms influencing drug metabolism. Although our knowledge of the long-term outcomes of chronic nephrotoxicity is increasing, there is still much to learn, including how we can optimally predict or achieve early detection of nephrotoxicity. Greater understanding of the pathogenesis of nephrotoxicity is needed before its occurrence can be prevented.

Effect of Baseline Nutritional Status on Long-term Multivitamin Use and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Rautiainen, Susanne; Gaziano, J. Michael; Christen, William G.; Bubes, Vadim; Kotler, Gregory; Glynn, Robert J.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Buring, Julie E.

2017-01-01

Importance Long-term multivitamin use had no effect on risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Physicians’ Health Study II. Baseline nutritional status may have modified the lack of effect. Objective To investigate effect modification by various baseline dietary factors on CVD risk in the Physicians’ Health Study II. Design, Setting, and Participants The Physicians’ Health Study II was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial testing multivitamin use (multivitamin [Centrum Silver] or placebo daily) among US male physicians. The Physicians’ Health Study II included 14 641 male physicians 50 years or older, 13 316 of whom (91.0%) completed a baseline 116-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and were included in the analyses. This study examined effect modification by baseline intake of key foods, individual nutrients, dietary patterns (Alternate Healthy Eating Index and Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score), and dietary supplement use. The study began in 1997, with continued treatment and follow-up through June 1, 2011. Interventions Multivitamin or placebo daily. Main Outcomes and Measures Major cardiovascular events, including nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and CVD mortality. Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction, total stroke, CVD mortality, and total mortality individually. Results In total, 13 316 male physicians (mean [SD] age at randomization, 64.0 [9.0] years in those receiving the active multivitamin and 64.0 [9.1] years in those receiving the placebo) were observed for a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.4 (2.3) years. There was no consistent evidence of effect modification by various foods, nutrients, dietary patterns, or baseline supplement use on the effect of multivitamin use on CVD end points. Statistically significant interaction effects were observed between multivitamin use and vitamin B6 intake on myocardial infarction, between multivitamin use and vitamin D intake on CVD mortality

Long-term Morbidity of Testicular Cancer Treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Fung, Chunkit; Fossa, Sophie D; Williams, Annalynn; Travis, Lois B

2015-08-01

Second malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, neurotoxicity and ototoxicity, pulmonary complications, hypogonadism, and nephrotoxicity are potentially life-threatening long-term complications of testicular cancer and its therapy. This article describes the pathogenesis, risks, and management of these late effects experienced by long-term testicular cancer survivors, who are defined as individuals who are disease free 5 years or more after primary treatment. Testicular cancer survivors should follow applicable national guidelines for cancer screening and management of cardiovascular disease risk factors. In addition, health care providers should capitalize on the time of cancer diagnosis as a teachable moment to introduce and promote lifestyle changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of unsafe abortion associated with long-term contraception behaviour: a case control study from Sri Lanka.

Science.gov (United States)

Arambepola, Carukshi; Rajapaksa, Lalini C

2017-06-29

When faced with an unintended pregnancy, some women choose to undergo an unsafe abortion, while others do not. This choice may depend on long-term contraception that shapes the fertility goals of women, along with many other risk factors. We assessed the risk for unsafe abortion associated with contraceptive practices based on women's long-term behaviour, and its likely modification by the use of different types of contraceptives among women in Sri Lanka. An unmatched case-control study was conducted in nine hospitals among 171 women admitted for care following an unsafe abortion (Cases) and 600 women admitted to same hospitals for delivery of an unintended term pregnancy (Controls). Interviewer-administered-questionnaires assessed their socio-economic, reproductive and fertility (decisions on family size, family completion) characteristics, contraceptive method last used (traditional, modern), reasons for discontinuation/never-use, and contraceptive practices assessed at different time points. Using several regression models, the risk of abortion was assessed for 'non-use' of contraception against 'ineffective use' at conception; for non-use further categorised as 'never-use', 'early-discontinuation' (discontinued before last birth interval) and 'late-discontinuation' (discontinued during last birth interval); and for any interaction between the contraceptive practice and contraceptive method last used among the ever-users of contraception. At conception, 'non-use' of contraception imparted a two-fold risk for abortion against ineffective use (adjusted-OR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2-3.2). The abortion risk on 'non-use' varied further according to 'early' (adjusted-OR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1-3.1) and 'late' (adjusted-OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.5-3.6) discontinuation of contraception, but not with 'never-use' (crude-OR = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.6-2.3). Among the ever-users, the risk of abortion varied within each contraceptive practice by their last used contraceptive method and

Frontal sinus revision rate after nasal polyposis surgery including frontal recess clearance and middle turbinectomy: A long-term analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Benkhatar, Hakim; Khettab, Idir; Sultanik, Philippe; Laccourreye, Ollivier; Bonfils, Pierre

2018-08-01

To determine the frontal sinus revision rate after nasal polyposis (NP) surgery including frontal recess clearance (FRC) and middle turbinectomy (MT), to search for predictive factors and to analyse surgical management. Longitudinal analysis of 153 patients who consecutively underwent bilateral sphenoethmoidectomy with FRC and MT for NP with a minimum follow-up of 7 years. Decision of revision surgery was made in case of medically refractory chronic frontal sinusitis or frontal mucocele. Univariate and multivariate analysis incorporating clinical and radiological variables were performed. The frontal sinus revision rate was 6.5% (10/153). The mean time between the initial procedure and revision surgery was 3 years, 10 months. Osteitis around the frontal sinus outflow tract (FSOT) was associated with a higher risk of frontal sinus revision surgery (p=0.01). Asthma and aspirin intolerance did not increase the risk, as well as frontal sinus ostium diameter or residual frontoethmoid cells. Among revised patients, 60% required multiple procedures and 70% required frontal sinus ostium enlargement. Our long-term study reports that NP surgery including FRC and MT is associated with a low frontal sinus revision rate (6.5%). Patients developing osteitis around the FSOT have a higher risk of frontal sinus revision surgery. As mucosal damage can lead to osteitis, FSOT mucosa should be preserved during initial NP surgery. However, as multiple procedures are common among NP patients requiring frontal sinus revision, frontal sinus ostium enlargement should be considered during first revision in the hope of reducing the need of further revisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Workplace social capital and risk of long-term sickness absence. Are associations modified by occupational grade?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rugulies, Reiner; Hasle, Peter; Hyld Pejtersen, Jan

2016-01-01

Background: Workplace social capital (WSC) is an emerging topic among both work environment professionals and researchers. We examined (i) whether high WSC protected against risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in a random sample of the Danish workforce during a 1-year follow-up and (ii...

Long-term sedentary work and the risk of subsite-specific colorectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Boyle, Terry; Fritschi, Lin; Heyworth, Jane; Bull, Fiona

2011-05-15

Research suggests that sedentary behavior may increase the risk of some chronic diseases. The aims of the study were to examine whether sedentary work is associated with colorectal cancer and to determine whether the association differs by subsite. A total of 918 cases and 1,021 controls participated in a population-based case-control study of colorectal cancer in Western Australia in 2005-2007. Data were collected on lifestyle, physical activity, and lifetime job history. The estimated effects of sedentary work on the risk of cancers of the proximal colon, distal colon, and rectum were analyzed by using multinomial logistic regression. Compared with participants who did not spend any time in sedentary work, participants who spent 10 or more years in sedentary work had almost twice the risk of distal colon cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.94, 95% confidence interval: 1.28, 2.93) and a 44% increased risk of rectal cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 2.18). This association was independent of recreational physical activity and was seen even among the most recreationally active participants. Sedentary work was not associated with the risk of proximal colon cancer. These results suggest that long-term sedentary work may increase the risk of distal colon cancer and rectal cancer.

Long-term dietary patterns and carotid artery intima media thickness: the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Mikkilä, Vera; Räsänen, Leena; Laaksonen, Marika M L; Juonala, Markus; Viikari, Jorma; Pietinen, Pirjo; Raitakari, Olli T

2009-11-01

A whole-diet approach has proven useful for characterising dietary exposure in cardiovascular epidemiology research. In our previous analyses, we found dietary patterns to be significant determinants of CVD risk factor levels among the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns cohort. We investigated the associations of major dietary patterns with carotid intima media thickness (IMT), a subclinical predictor of CVD, in healthy adults. The Young Finns Study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study with a 21-year follow-up to date. The subjects were children and adolescents at baseline in 1980 (aged 3-18 years), and all had reached adulthood by the latest follow-up in 2001 (aged 24-39 years). Complete dietary data from the years 1980, 1986 and 2001 and outcome data from the year 2001 were obtained from 785 subjects. The long-term average pattern score for a traditional dietary pattern (characterised by high consumption of rye, potatoes, butter, sausages, milk and coffee) was associated with IMT especially among subjects with a low score for the health-conscious dietary pattern (characterised by high consumption of vegetables, legumes and nuts, rye, tea, cheese and other dairy products). In multivariable regression analyses using long-term pattern scores as predictors, the traditional dietary pattern was independently associated with IMT in men (P < 0.01), but not in women (P = 0.66). Long-term adherence to traditional food choices seems to increase the risk of developing subclinical atherosclerosis among Finnish men.

Long-term risk assessment of radioactive waste disposal in geological formations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girardi, F.; Bertozzi, G.; D'Alessandro, M.

1978-01-01

Methods for long-term safety analysis of waste from nuclear power production in the European Community are under study at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) at Ispra, Italy. Aim of the work is to develop a suitable methodology for long-term risk assessment. The methodology under study is based on the assessment of the quantitative value of a system of barriers which may be interposed between waste and man. The barriers considered are: a) quality of the segregation afforded by the geological formation, b) chemical and physical stability of conditioned waste, c) interaction with geological environments (subsoil retention), d) distribution in the biosphere. The methodology is presently being applied to idealized test cases based on the following assumptions: waste are generated during 30 years of operations in a nuclear park (reprocessing + refabrication plant) capable of treating 1000 ton/yr of LWR fuel. High activity waste is conditioned as borosilicate glass (HAW) while low- and medium-level wastes are bituminized (BIP). All waste is disposed off into a salt formation. Transport to the biosphere, following the containment failure occurs by groundwater, with no delay due to retention on adsorbing media. Distribution into the biosphere occurs according to the terrestrial model indicated. Under these assumptions, information was drawn concerning environmental contamination, its levels, contributing elements and pathways to man

Long-term risk of cervical cancer following conization of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3-A Danish nationwide cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sand, Freja Laerke; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

2018-01-01

Using nationwide Danish registries we examined the long-term risk of cervical cancer in women diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) (including adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS)) on the cone compared to women with a normal cytology test. Initially, we identified women born 1918......-1990, who were recorded as living in Denmark between January 1, 1978 and December 31, 2012. From the Pathology Data Bank information on CIN3 on the cone, margins status, histological type of CIN3 and cervical cytology results was extracted. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the relative...... risk of subsequent cervical cancer. We included 59,464 women with CIN3 on the cone and 1,918,508 women with a normal cytology test. Overall, women diagnosed with CIN3 had a higher risk of subsequent cervical cancer compared to women with normal cytology (HR = 2.06; 95%CI: 1.81-2.35). Analyses according...

Inverse probability of treatment-weighted competing risks analysis: an application on long-term risk of urinary adverse events after prostate cancer treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolch, Charlotte A; Chu, Haitao; Jarosek, Stephanie; Cole, Stephen R; Elliott, Sean; Virnig, Beth

2017-07-10

To illustrate the 10-year risks of urinary adverse events (UAEs) among men diagnosed with prostate cancer and treated with different types of therapy, accounting for the competing risk of death. Prostate cancer is the second most common malignancy among adult males in the United States. Few studies have reported the long-term post-treatment risk of UAEs and those that have, have not appropriately accounted for competing deaths. This paper conducts an inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weighted competing risks analysis to estimate the effects of different prostate cancer treatments on the risk of UAE, using a matched-cohort of prostate cancer/non-cancer control patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Medicare database. Study dataset included men age 66 years or older that are 83% white and had a median follow-up time of 4.14 years. Patients that underwent combination radical prostatectomy and external beam radiotherapy experienced the highest risk of UAE (IPT-weighted competing risks: HR 3.65 with 95% CI (3.28, 4.07); 10-yr. cumulative incidence = 36.5%). Findings suggest that IPT-weighted competing risks analysis provides an accurate estimator of the cumulative incidence of UAE taking into account the competing deaths as well as measured confounding bias.

Short-horizon regulation for long-term investors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shi, Z.; Werker, B.J.M.

2012-01-01

We study the effects of imposing repeated short-horizon regulatory constraints on long-term investors. We show that Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall constraints, when imposed dynamically, lead to similar optimal portfolios and wealth distributions. We also show that, in utility terms, the costs

Epilepsy-associated long-term mortality after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Huttunen, Jukka; Lindgren, Antti; Kurki, Mitja I; Huttunen, Terhi; Frösen, Juhana; Koivisto, Timo; von Und Zu Fraunberg, Mikael; Immonen, Arto; Jääskeläinen, Juha E; Kälviäinen, Reetta

2017-07-18

To elucidate the epilepsy-associated causes of death and subsequent excess long-term mortality among 12-month survivors of subarachnoid hemorrhage from saccular intracranial aneurysm (SIA-SAH). The Kuopio SIA Database (kuopioneurosurgery.fi) includes all SIA-SAH patients admitted to the Kuopio University Hospital from its defined catchment population in Eastern Finland. The study cohort consists of 779 patients, admitted from 1995 to 2007, who were alive at 12 months after SIA-SAH. Their use of reimbursable antiepileptic drugs and the causes of death (ICD-10) were fused from the Finnish national registries from 1994 to 2014. The 779 12-month survivors were followed up until death (n = 197) or December 31, 2014, a median of 12.0 years after SIA-SAH. Epilepsy had been diagnosed in 121 (15%) patients after SIA-SAH, and 34/121 (28%) had died at the end of follow-up, with epilepsy as the immediate cause of death in 7/34 (21%). In the 779 patients alive at 12 months after SIA-SAH, epilepsy was an independent risk factor for mortality (hazard ratio 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.1-3.0). Comorbid epilepsy in 12-month survivors of SIA-SAH is associated with increased risk of death in long-term follow-up. Survivors of SIA-SAH require long-term dedicated follow-up, including identification and effective treatment of comorbid epilepsy to prevent avoidable deaths. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

The developmental environment, epigenetic biomarkers and long-term health.

Science.gov (United States)

Godfrey, K M; Costello, P M; Lillycrop, K A

2015-10-01

Evidence from both human and animal studies has shown that the prenatal and early postnatal environments influence susceptibility to chronic disease in later life and suggests that epigenetic processes are an important mechanism by which the environment alters long-term disease risk. Epigenetic processes, including DNA methylation, histone modification and non-coding RNAs, play a central role in regulating gene expression. The epigenome is highly sensitive to environmental factors in early life, such as nutrition, stress, endocrine disruption and pollution, and changes in the epigenome can induce long-term changes in gene expression and phenotype. In this review we focus on how the early life nutritional environment can alter the epigenome leading to an altered susceptibility to disease in later life.

Long-Term Prediction of Severe Hypoglycemia in Type 1 Diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Marie Moth; Færch, Louise; Thorsteinsson, Birger

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Prediction of risk of severe hypoglycemia (SH) in patients with type 1 diabetes is important to prevent future episodes, but it is unknown if it is possible to predict the long-term risk of SH. The aim of the study is to assess if long-term prediction of SH is possible in type 1...... diabetes. METHODS: A follow-up study was performed with 98 patients with type 1 diabetes. At baseline and at follow-up, the patients filled in a questionnaire about diabetes history and complications, number of SH in the preceding year and state of awareness, and HbA1c and C-peptide levels were measured......-up. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term prediction of severe hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes was not possible, although baseline hypoglycemia unawareness tended to remain a predictor for risk of SH at follow-up. Therefore, it is important repeatedly to assess the different risk factors of SH to determine the actual risk....

Long-Term Problems of Nuclear Energy, October 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broda, E.

1976-01-01

The Text was written by Enelbert Broda in Oktober 1976. In this report, the physicist and chemist Engelbert Broda discusses various areas of peaceful uses of nuclear energy and concludes that the negative aspects outweigh the positive and that the use of nuclear energy has to be rejected in the long term. In 16 chapters the biggest and most dangerous problems are discussed. Include the unresolved question of disposal, problems of reprocessing and transport of fissile materials, the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology, risks of terrorism, dismantling and decontamination of old nuclear power plants, the toxicity of fissile material, as well as the general unprofitable use of nuclear power plants. As a long-term alternative the author suggests an intensification of the exploitation of solar energy, as well as a deliberate restriction of the rising demand for energy.(roessner) [de

Long-Term Problems of Nuclear Energy, December 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broda, E.

1976-01-01

The Text was written by Enelbert Broda in Oktober 1976. In this report, the physicist and chemist Engelbert Broda discusses various areas of peaceful uses of nuclear energy and concludes that the negative aspects outweigh the positive and that the use of nuclear energy has to be rejected in the long term. In 16 chapters the biggest and most dangerous problems are discussed. Include the unresolved question of disposal, problems of reprocessing and transport of fissile materials, the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology, risks of terrorism, dismantling and decontamination of old nuclear power plants, the toxicity of fissile material, as well as the general unprofitable use of nuclear power plants. As a long-term alternative the author suggests an intensification of the exploitation of solar energy, as well as a deliberate restriction of the rising demand for energy.(roessner)

Impact of Long-Term Care on Retirement Wellness.

Science.gov (United States)

Rappaport, Anna M

2015-01-01

Retirement wellness is the result of retiring at an appropriate age, saving enough and managing risks appropriately. One of the major risks that often is not addressed effectively is the long-term care (LTC) risk, i.e., the risk of needing help due to physical or cognitive limitations. In 2014, the Society of Actuaries issued a call for papers on the link between LTC and retirement security. This article will discuss the topic of LTC and retirement security broadly, drawing from several of the papers. Some of the topics include the impact of LTC on the individual, family members and caregivers; modeling results showing the impact of LTC on assets needed for a secure retirement; alternative methods of financing LTC; the link between housing decisions and LTC; and some ideas for the future.

Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn; Twisk, Jos; Bültmann, Ute; Bjørner, Jakob

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying employees at increased risk of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), by using variables commonly measured in occupational health surveys. Based on the literature, 15 predictor variables were retrieved from the DAnish National working Environment Survey (DANES) and included in a model predicting incident LTSA (≥4 consecutive weeks) during 1-year follow-up in a sample of 4000 DANES participants. The 15-predictor model was reduced by backward stepwise statistical techniques and then validated in a sample of 2524 DANES participants, not included in the development sample. Identification of employees at increased LTSA risk was investigated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis; the area-under-the-ROC-curve (AUC) reflected discrimination between employees with and without LTSA during follow-up. The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC = 0.68; 95% CI 0.61-0.76), but not practically useful. A prediction model based on occupational health survey variables identified employees with an increased LTSA risk, but should be further developed into a practically useful tool to predict the risk of LTSA in the general working population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for

Life-long diseases need life-long treatment: long-term safety of ciclosporin in canine atopic dermatitis

Science.gov (United States)

Nuttall, Tim; Reece, Douglas; Roberts, Elizabeth

2014-01-01

Ciclosporin (Atopica; Novartis Animal Health) has been licensed for canine atopic dermatitis (AD) since 2002. Adverse events (AEs) have been reported in 55 per cent of 759 dogs in 15 clinical trials, but are rare in pharmacovigilance data (71.81 AEs/million capsules sold). Gastrointestinal reactions were most common, but were mild and rarely required intervention. Other AEs were rare (≤1 per cent in clinical trials; metabolism is not clinically significant for normal dogs. Concomitant treatment with most drugs is safe. Effects on cytochrome P450 and MDR1 P-glycoprotein activity may elevate plasma ciclosporin concentrations, but short-term changes are not clinically significant. Monitoring of complete blood counts, urinalysis or ciclosporin levels is not justified except with higher than recommended doses and/or long-term concurrent immunosuppressive drugs. Ciclosporin is not a contraindication for killed (including rabies) vaccines, but the licensed recommendation is that live vaccination is avoided during treatment. In conclusion, ciclosporin has a positive risk-benefit profile for the long-term management of canine AD. PMID:24682696

Primary tacrolimus (FK506) therapy and the long-term risk of post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease in pediatric liver transplant recipients.

Science.gov (United States)

Cacciarelli, T V; Reyes, J; Jaffe, R; Mazariegos, G V; Jain, A; Fung, J J; Green, M

2001-10-01

While the overall incidence of post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) in pediatric liver transplant recipients has been reported to be 4-11%, the long-term risk of PTLD associated with primary tacrolimus therapy is unknown. Therefore, in order to determine the incidence and long-term risk of PTLD, the present study examined 131 pediatric recipients who underwent liver transplantation (LTx) between October 1989 and December 1991 and received primary tacrolimus therapy. This cohort of children was evaluated over an extended time-period (until December 31 1996) with a mean follow-up of 6.3 yr. Actuarial Kaplan-Meier analysis was utilized to determine the risk of PTLD over time. The overall incidence of PTLD was 13% (17/131) with an average age of 4.3 +/- 0.75 yr at diagnosis. Pretransplant Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) serologies were negative in 82%, positive in 12%, and not available in 6% of the patients. The median time to diagnosis of PTLD post-Tx was 11.9 months (mean 16.4 +/- 3.9, range 1.7-63.0 months). Mean tacrolimus dose and plasma trough level (as evaluated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA]) at the time of diagnosis was 0.32 +/- 0.06 mg/kg/day and 1.3 +/- 0.3 ng/mL, respectively. The cumulative long-term risk of PTLD was found to increase over time: 3% at 6 months, 8% at 1 yr, 12% at 2 yr, 14% at 3 yr, and 15% at 4 and 5 yr. Mortality from PTLD was 12% (two of 17 patients). Primary tacrolimus use in pediatric LTx has a long-term risk of PTLD approaching 15%, with the majority of episodes (78%) occurring in the first 2 yr, suggesting that intense EBV surveillance should occur early post-transplantation.

Predicting long-term mortality after Fontan procedures: A risk score based on 6707 patients from 28 studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alsaied, Tarek; Bokma, Jouke P.; Engel, Mark E.; Kuijpers, Joey M.; Hanke, Samuel P.; Zuhlke, Liesl; Zhang, Bin; Veldtman, Gruschen R.

2017-01-01

Reported long-term outcome measures vary greatly between studies in Fontan patients making comprehensive appraisal of mortality hazard challenging. We sought to create a clinical risk score to assist monitoring of Fontan patients in the outpatient setting. A systematic review was conducted to

Radiobiology in clinical radiation therapy: Long term risks - Carcinogenic, hereditary, and teratogenetic effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenner, David J.

1997-01-01

The long-term risks induced by radiation are of much concern to patients and clinicians alike. As an example, perceived radiation risks are frequently cited in a woman's decision to choose a radical mastectomy over lumpectomy + radiation. In consequence, the actual radiation risks are often considerably overstated, or unreasonably downplayed. In this lecture we will discuss just what is known about the long term risks following radiotherapy, both from the human experience and from the laboratory. We will discuss risks both to the patient and to radiotherapy personnel. A good deal is known about the carcinogenic effects of high and low doses of radiation, in large part thanks to the careful study of the survivors of the atomic bombing in Japan, as well as studies of individuals exposed to medical x rays. It is possible to make an estimate, which is probably good to within a factor of, perhaps, three to five, of the cancer risks faced by a patient of a particular age and sex who is going to undergo a particular radiotherapeutic regimen. It is also possible to make an estimate of the risks faced by radiotherapy and nursing staff exposed to low doses. Brachytherapy related risk estimates are likely to be somewhat more uncertain, due to the poorly known sparing effects of the low dose rates used; for the radiotherapy personnel in brachytherapy, because of the doses which can be received, the risks can be quite significant. A recent complication in external-beam radiotherapy is the advent of high-energy linacs, which can produce a significant fast neutron dose which, dose for dose, may be ten to fifty times more carcinogenic than gamma rays. Data relating to the risks of hereditary effects of radiation come almost entirely from laboratory experiments in animals. Studies involving several million mice form the basis of most of our current understanding of hereditary effects. The results of these studies indicate that radiation is a relatively inefficient mutagen. The

Mothers with HIP - the short term and long-term impact, what is new?

Science.gov (United States)

Mecacci, Federico; Ottanelli, Serena; Petraglia, Felice

2018-05-03

Hyperglycemia is one of the most common medical conditions that women encounter during pregnancy and it is due to gestational diabetes (GDM) in the majority of cases [1]. GDM is associated with a higher incidence of maternal morbidity in pregnancy in term of hypertensive disorders/preclampsia and higher rate of cesarean delivery but also with long-term risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Pregnancy can therefore be considered a stress test; diagnosis of HIP can unmask a preexisting susceptibility and consequently a future risk for type 2 diabetes and can be a useful marker of future cardiovascular risk. Postpartum follow up provides an excellent opportunity to implement healthy lifestyle behaviors to prevent or delay the development of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. The aim of the current review is to focus on short and long term maternal morbidity of HIP. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Safety analysis SFR 1. Long-term safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2008-12-15

An updated assessment of the long-term safety of SKB's final repository for radioactive operational waste, SFR 1, is presented in this report. The report is included in the safety analysis report for SFR 1. The most recent account of long-term safety was submitted to the regulatory authorities in 2001. The present report has been compiled on SKB's initiative to address the regulatory authorities' viewpoints regarding the preceding account of long-term safety. Besides the new mode of working with safety functions there is another important difference between the 2001 safety assessment and the current assessment: The time horizon in the current assessment has been extended to 100,000 years in order to include the effect of future climate changes. The purpose of this renewed assessment of the long-term safety of SFR 1 is to show with improved data that the repository is capable of protecting human health and the environment against ionizing radiation in a long-term perspective. This is done by showing that calculated risks lie below the risk criteria stipulated by the regulatory authorities. SFR 1 is built to receive, and after closure serve as a passive repository for, low. and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The disposal chambers are situated in rock beneath the sea floor, covered by about 60 metres of rock. The underground part of the facility is reached via two tunnels whose entrances are near the harbour. The repository has been designed so that it can be abandoned after closure without further measures needing to be taken to maintain its function. The waste in SFR 1 is short-lived low- and intermediate-level waste. After 100 years the activity is less than half, and after 1,000 years only about 2% of the original activity remains. The report on long-term safety comprises eleven chapters. Chapter 1 Introduction. The chapter describes the purpose, background, format and contents of SAR-08, applicable regulations and injunctions, and the regulatory

Safety analysis SFR 1. Long-term safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-12-01

An updated assessment of the long-term safety of SKB's final repository for radioactive operational waste, SFR 1, is presented in this report. The report is included in the safety analysis report for SFR 1. The most recent account of long-term safety was submitted to the regulatory authorities in 2001. The present report has been compiled on SKB's initiative to address the regulatory authorities' viewpoints regarding the preceding account of long-term safety. Besides the new mode of working with safety functions there is another important difference between the 2001 safety assessment and the current assessment: The time horizon in the current assessment has been extended to 100,000 years in order to include the effect of future climate changes. The purpose of this renewed assessment of the long-term safety of SFR 1 is to show with improved data that the repository is capable of protecting human health and the environment against ionizing radiation in a long-term perspective. This is done by showing that calculated risks lie below the risk criteria stipulated by the regulatory authorities. SFR 1 is built to receive, and after closure serve as a passive repository for, low. and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The disposal chambers are situated in rock beneath the sea floor, covered by about 60 metres of rock. The underground part of the facility is reached via two tunnels whose entrances are near the harbour. The repository has been designed so that it can be abandoned after closure without further measures needing to be taken to maintain its function. The waste in SFR 1 is short-lived low- and intermediate-level waste. After 100 years the activity is less than half, and after 1,000 years only about 2% of the original activity remains. The report on long-term safety comprises eleven chapters. Chapter 1 Introduction. The chapter describes the purpose, background, format and contents of SAR-08, applicable regulations and injunctions, and the regulatory

Safety analysis SFR 1. Long-term safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2008-12-15

An updated assessment of the long-term safety of SKB's final repository for radioactive operational waste, SFR 1, is presented in this report. The report is included in the safety analysis report for SFR 1. The most recent account of long-term safety was submitted to the regulatory authorities in 2001. The present report has been compiled on SKB's initiative to address the regulatory authorities' viewpoints regarding the preceding account of long-term safety. Besides the new mode of working with safety functions there is another important difference between the 2001 safety assessment and the current assessment: The time horizon in the current assessment has been extended to 100,000 years in order to include the effect of future climate changes. The purpose of this renewed assessment of the long-term safety of SFR 1 is to show with improved data that the repository is capable of protecting human health and the environment against ionizing radiation in a long-term perspective. This is done by showing that calculated risks lie below the risk criteria stipulated by the regulatory authorities. SFR 1 is built to receive, and after closure serve as a passive repository for, low. and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The disposal chambers are situated in rock beneath the sea floor, covered by about 60 metres of rock. The underground part of the facility is reached via two tunnels whose entrances are near the harbour. The repository has been designed so that it can be abandoned after closure without further measures needing to be taken to maintain its function. The waste in SFR 1 is short-lived low- and intermediate-level waste. After 100 years the activity is less than half, and after 1,000 years only about 2% of the original activity remains. The report on long-term safety comprises eleven chapters. Chapter 1 Introduction. The chapter describes the purpose, background, format and contents of SAR-08, applicable regulations and injunctions, and the

Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

2015-01-01

Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

Managing long-term polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon contaminated soils: a risk-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Luchun; Naidu, Ravi; Thavamani, Palanisami; Meaklim, Jean; Megharaj, Mallavarapu

2015-06-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a family of contaminants that consist of two or more aromatic rings fused together. Soils contaminated with PAHs pose significant risk to human and ecological health. Over the last 50 years, significant research has been directed towards the cleanup of PAH-contaminated soils to background level. However, this achieved only limited success especially with high molecular weight compounds. Notably, during the last 5-10 years, the approach to remediate PAH-contaminated soils has changed considerably. A risk-based prioritization of remediation interventions has become a valuable step in the management of contaminated sites. The hydrophobicity of PAHs underlines that their phase distribution in soil is strongly influenced by factors such as soil properties and ageing of PAHs within the soil. A risk-based approach recognizes that exposure and environmental effects of PAHs are not directly related to the commonly measured total chemical concentration. Thus, a bioavailability-based assessment using a combination of chemical analysis with toxicological assays and nonexhaustive extraction technique would serve as a valuable tool in risk-based approach for remediation of PAH-contaminated soils. In this paper, the fate and availability of PAHs in contaminated soils and their relevance to risk-based management of long-term contaminated soils are reviewed. This review may serve as guidance for the use of site-specific risk-based management methods.

Long-term survival in pre-specified groups at risk in the Oslo Study, 1972-1973.

Science.gov (United States)

Holme, Ingar

2015-03-01

Using the Oslo Study of 1972-1973, we wished to compare the long-term mortality pattern up to 40 years, in both the healthy cardiovascular groups at supposedly high and low risk, and in some groups having cardiovascular disease at screening. At the screening, 16,203 (63% of those invited) men aged 40-49 years participated. Study groups were identified by means of questionnaires regarding diseases, blood pressure and measurements of total cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose. We identified six groups: very high cholesterol, very high blood pressure, very high glucose, non-smoking with non-elevated such risk factors, from a randomized diet and antismoking trial, and a randomized drug treatment in mild-to-moderate hypertension. Statistical analyses were by Cox regression analysis, with Kaplan-Meier graphs. The supposedly low-risk group had a total mortality of one-third of other groups, such as: men with hypertension, diabetes or hypercholesterolemia, or those whom participated in the two trials. Between these latter groups, we found 2-5 years of difference in their median survival time, but their absolute risk stayed at rather high levels through all the years, with the median remaining a lifetime that was 3-8 years shorter than the men whom were free of known cardiovascular disease, diabetes or hypertension. The long-term preventive effects on total mortality seem large, if the levels of the classical risk factors of blood pressure, total cholesterol and glucose can be adequately controlled, concurrently with a non-smoking behavior. The study indicated that non-smoking and a low total cholesterol value were the most important contributors to extended survival. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schouten, Lianne S.; Bultmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W.; Joling, Catelijne I.; Twisk, Jos W. R.; Roelen, Corne A. M.

2016-01-01

Background: The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers

Development and validation of a prediction model for long-term sickness absence based on occupational health survey variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roelen, Corné; Thorsen, Sannie; Heymans, Martijn

2018-01-01

LTSA during follow-up. Results: The 15-predictor model was reduced to a 9-predictor model including age, gender, education, self-rated health, mental health, prior LTSA, work ability, emotional job demands, and recognition by the management. Discrimination by the 9-predictor model was significant (AUC...... population. Implications for rehabilitation Long-term sickness absence risk predictions would enable healthcare providers to refer high-risk employees to rehabilitation programs aimed at preventing or reducing work disability. A prediction model based on health survey variables discriminates between...... employees at high and low risk of long-term sickness absence, but discrimination was not practically useful. Health survey variables provide insufficient information to determine long-term sickness absence risk profiles. There is a need for new variables, based on the knowledge and experience...

ASSOCIATION OF OPERATING RISK OF LONG-TERM OBLIGATIONS OF MUNICIPALITIY OF SOPOT WITH EUROPEAN UNION BUDGET PROSPECTS FOR 2007-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomasz Jastrzębski

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Polish accession to the European Union allowed Polish municipalities to use co-financing of development projects of local infrastructure, environmental protection and improvement of competitiveness of municipalities. The process of transition is sometimes referred to as bridging the development gaps between countries of "old fifteen" and the new member countries. The desire of municipalities to maximize the use of EU funds led to a rapid increase in the debt level of municipalities and changes in levels of risk of long-term liabilities of municipalities. The aim of this article is to empirically confirm thesis that the change in the long-term financial liabilities associated with the prospect of the European Union budget for 2007-2013 is causing a variation of the operating risks of these liabilities. A tool used to verify this hypothesis is the risk model, which is a random vector with components identified with control variables of management process in the handling of long-term financial liabilities. The design of the components of this vector is based on the basic characteristics of the probability distribution of the vector as the ex-pected value and the variance and their ideal and anti-ideal levels.

Long- and Short-Term Cryptocurrency Volatility Components: A GARCH-MIDAS Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Conrad

2018-05-01

Full Text Available We use the GARCH-MIDAS model to extract the long- and short-term volatility components of cryptocurrencies. As potential drivers of Bitcoin volatility, we consider measures of volatility and risk in the US stock market as well as a measure of global economic activity. We find that S&P 500 realized volatility has a negative and highly significant effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. The finding is atypical for volatility co-movements across financial markets. Moreover, we find that the S&P 500 volatility risk premium has a significantly positive effect on long-term Bitcoin volatility. Finally, we find a strong positive association between the Baltic dry index and long-term Bitcoin volatility. This result shows that Bitcoin volatility is closely linked to global economic activity. Overall, our findings can be used to construct improved forecasts of long-term Bitcoin volatility.

Long-term storage of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magleby, M.T.

1990-01-01

Under Federal law, the Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for safe disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Waste (GTCC LLW) generated by licenses of the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC) or Agreement States. Such waste must be disposed of in a facility licensed by the NRC. It is unlikely that licensed disposal of GTCC LLW will be available prior to the year 2010. Pending availability of disposal capacity, DOE is assessing the need for collective, long-term storage of GTCC LLW. Potential risks to public health and safety caused by long-term storage of GTCC LLW at the place of generation will be evaluated to determine if alternative facilities are warranted. If warranted, several options will be investigated to determine the preferred alternative for long-term storage. These options include modification of an existing DOE facility, development of a new DOE facility, or development of a facility by the private sector with or without DOE support. Reasonable costs for long-term storage would be borne by the waste generators. 5 refs., 1 fig

Long-Term Exposure to Road Traffic Noise and Nitrogen Dioxide and Risk of Heart Failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Mette; Wendelboe Nielsen, Olav; Sajadieh, Ahmad

2017-01-01

(NO2) were associated with incident heart failure. METHODS: In a cohort of 57,053 people 50-64 y of age at enrollment in the period 1993-1997, we identified 2,550 cases of first-ever hospital admission for heart failure during a mean follow-up time of 13.4 y. Present and historical residential....... CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to NO2 and road traffic noise was associated with higher risk of heart failure, mainly among men, in both single- and two-pollutant models. High exposure to both pollutants was associated with highest risk. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1272....

Foreign exchange risk in terms of global financial crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michał Buszko

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Fx risk is one of the most important types of risk of financial activity. In practice, this risk comprises several risk aspects related to currencies exchanging, however most often it is identified with unexpected changes of their prices. In terms of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, the fx risk has raised significantly, revealing a high daily volatility, increased spreads and the reversal of long-term exchange rate trends. Such increased risk especially influenced emerging markets economies, including Poland. Its consequence was quick strengthening of Polish currency at the beginning of the global crisis followed by a very sudden fall of its value. This event led to a substantial increase of banking risk, investment funds and corporate operations. It changed the structure of GDP sources as well as generated huge losses for exporting companies, using currency options hedging strategies.

Long-term visual health risks from solar ultraviolet radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waxler, M.

1987-01-01

Ocular exposure to the ultraviolet radiation (UV) contained in sunlight may result in long-term visual health problems. UV plays a role in the etiology of cataracts and possibly in the etiology of visual impairments associated with solar retinopathy, retinopathy of prematurity, ocular aging, cystoid macular edema, retinitis pigmentosa, and senile macular degeneration. The exact does relationships between known UV bioeffects and these ocular problems is, however, uncertain. Thus, there are questions about the extent to which protective measures should be taken to reduce UV exposure of the eye. This paper identifies the long-term visual health problems potentially associated with ocular exposure to solar UV; proposes worst-case assumptions for the role of solar UV in these visual problems; and recommends protective measures based on damage thresholds and worst-case assumptions

Long-term opioid therapy in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Birke, H; Ekholm, Ola; Sjøgren, P

2017-01-01

significantly associated with initiation of L-TOT in individuals with CNCP at baseline. During follow-up, L-TOT in CNCP patients increased the likelihood of negative changes in pain interference with work (OR 9.2; 95% CI 1.9-43.6) and in moderate activities (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.1-12.6). The analysis of all......,145). A nationally representative subsample of individuals (n = 2015) completed the self-administered questionnaire in both 2000 and 2013. Collected information included chronic pain (≥6 months), health behaviour, self-rated health, pain interference with work activities and physical activities. Long-term users were...... individuals indicated a dose-response relationship between longer treatment duration and the risk of experiencing negative changes. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals on L-TOT seemed not to achieve the key goals of opioid therapy: pain relief, improved quality of life and functional capacity. SIGNIFICANCE: Long...

Endogenous, reactive and neurotic depression -- diagnostic stability and long-term outcome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kessing, Lars Vedel

2004-01-01

with a diagnosis of endogenous, reactive or neurotic depression according to ICD-8 were identified in a nationwide register of admissions to psychiatric wards. Patients were followed up to 1999 and the long-term diagnostic stability, the risk of relapse leading to readmission and the risk of suicide was analysed...... with reactive depression had less risk of relapse. No differences were found in the risk of completed suicide between the three groups of patients during long-term follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The study does not provide evidence for re-establishing prior diagnostic systems of depressive disorders based......BACKGROUND: No larger long-term study has been conducted of outcomes of patients diagnosed with endogenous, reactive or neurotic depression and using survival methods in the analyses. SAMPLING AND METHODS: All patients who had had their first-ever discharge in the period from 1970 to 1994...

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in coastal waters of northern South China Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Lifei; Jia, Xiaoping; Jackson, Donald A

2017-09-01

Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10 -5 , both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.

The long-term fate of epistaxis patients with exposure to antithrombotic medication.

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Stadler, Rafael R; Kindler, Rahel; Holzmann, David; Soyka, Michael B

2016-09-01

The goal of this study was to evaluate independent risk factors for long-term epistaxis recurrences and their severity. Individual retrospective cohort study-2b level of evidence. The medical information of 603 emergency epistaxis patients was acquired during a former study. This cohort has been contacted 6 years later by conventional mail and asked to answer a specific paper questionnaire. The following parameters were evaluated: recurrent epistaxis episodes, need for a surgical intervention to stop the recurrent bleeding, patient's history for hypertension and diabetes, intake of hemostasis impairing medication now and in the past. One hundred and six (106) patients were included in the study (35.8 % response rate). The mean observation period was 76.58 months. Almost half of the patients (41.5 % = 44/106) reported at least one recurrent epistaxis episode. Patients with exposure to VKA (vitamin K antagonists) showed significantly more frequently a recurrent epistaxis episode. The binary logistic regression confirmed the intake of VKA as an independent and significant risk factor with an odds ratio of 11.6. Every single patient who had to undergo a surgical intervention to stop a recurrent bleeding stated ASA (Acetylsalicylic Acid) intake. We provide evidence that the intake of a vitamin K antagonist is an independent long-term risk factor for recurrent epistaxis episodes. The intake of ASA is a risk factor for the severity of recurrent epistaxis with the increased need for a surgical intervention not only in a short- but also in a long-term perspective. This prognostic investigation, designed as a combined prospective and retrospective cohort study, reaches level 2b level of evidence as it includes retrospective aspects.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and the risk of suicide death: A population-based cohort study.

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Min, Jin-Young; Kim, Hye-Jin; Min, Kyoung-Bok

2018-07-01

Suicide is a major public health problem. Previous studies have reported a significant association between acute exposure to air pollution and suicide; little attention has been paid to the long-term effects of air pollution on risk of suicide. We investigated whether long-term exposure to particulate matter of ≤10μm in diameter (PM 10 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) would be associated with a greater risk of death by suicide. The study sample comprised 265,749 adults enrolled in the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (2002-2013) in South Korea. Suicide death was defined as per ICD-10 code. Data on air pollution exposure used nationwide monitoring data, and individual exposure levels were assigned using geographic information systems. Air pollution exposure was categorized as the interquartile range (IQR) and quartiles. Hazards ratios (HRs) were calculated for the occurrence of suicide death after adjusting for potential covariates. During the study period, 564 (0.2%) subjects died from suicide. Increases in IQR pollutants (7.5μg/m 3 for PM 10 , 11.8ppb for NO 2 , and 0.8ppb for SO 2 ) significantly increased HR for suicide death [PM 10 : HR=3.09 (95% CI: 2.63-3.63); NO 2 : HR=1.33 (95% CI: 1.09-1.64); and SO 2 : HR=1.15 (95% CI: 1.07-1.24)]. Compared with the lowest level of air pollutants (Quartile 1), the risk of suicide significantly increased in the highest quartile level (Quartile 4) for PM 10 (HR=4.03; 95% CI: 2.97-5.47) and SO 2 (HR=1.65; 95% CI: 1.29-2.11) and in the third quartile for NO 2 (HR=1.52; 95% CI: 1.17-1.96). HRs for subjects with a physical or mental disorder were higher than that those for subjects without the disorder. Subjects living in metropolitan areas were more vulnerable to long-term PM 10 exposure than those living in non-metropolitan areas. Long-term exposure to air pollution was associated with a significantly increased risk of suicide death. People having underlying diseases or

Analysis of long-term guarantee of supply in power markets: Application of the marginal theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parrilla, Ernesto; Vazquez, Carlos

2005-06-01

In this paper the marginal theory is applied to discuss the different long-term equilibria that could be reached in an electricity market depending on the market participants' (generators, consumers and the regulator) goals and constraints. The aim is to identify the key elements of a possible market failure in providing generation adequacy - immature demand, regulated tariffs, long-term contracting, different agents perception of the market risks, etc - and to study their influence in the long-term market equilibrium. Furthermore, we analyze several of the different capacity mechanisms that could be used to ensure generation adequacy, such as: short-term capacity payments, long-term capacity payments and capacity markets. This final analysis includes an estimation of how useful each method is to compensate the market failures that we have previously identified

Long-term outcomes of left bundle branch block in high-risk survivors of acute myocardial infarction: the VALIANT experience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stephenson, Kent; Skali, Hicham; McMurray, John J V

2006-01-01

was to determine if new LBBB is an independent predictor of long-term fatal and nonfatal outcomes in high-risk survivors of MI by reviewing data from the VALsartan In Acute myocardial iNfarcTion (VALIANT) trial. METHODS: In VALIANT, 14,703 patients with LV systolic dysfunction and/or HF were randomized...... to valsartan, captopril, or both a mean of 5 days after MI. Baseline ECG data were available from 14,259 patients. We assessed the predictive value of new LBBB for death and major cardiovascular outcomes after 3 years, adjusting for multiple baseline covariates including LV ejection fraction. RESULTS...

Negotiated risk and resident autonomy: Frontline care staff perspectives on culture change in long term care in Nova Scotia, Canada.

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Roberts, Emily

2016-08-12

Regulating risk, freedom of action, and autonomy in decision making are problems shared by both caregivers and residents in long term care settings, and may become the subject of tension and constant negotiation. This study focuses on long term care staff and management perceptions of day to day life in a care community which has gone through a culture change transition, where small residentially scaled households replace large instutional models of care. In each household, the setting is considered to be home for the 8-12 residents, creating a major shift of roles for the caregivers; they are, in essence, coming into a home rather than institutional environment as a place of work. This potentially changes the dynamics of both patterns of work for caregivers and patterns of daily living for residents. Participant observations and care staff interviews. Several key themes emrged which include: teamwork; the culture of care; regulating risk; the physical environment and care staff empowerment. An unexpected outcome was the consensus among care staff that it is they who feel at home while working in the care households, leading to empowerment in their work roles and a deeper understanding of the importance of their role in the lives of the residents.

Long-term survival in patients hospitalized for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gudmundsson, Gunnar; Ulrik, Charlotte Suppli; Gislason, Thorarinn

2012-01-01

Mortality rate is high in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to investigate long-term mortality and associated risk factors in COPD patients previously hospitalized for a COPD exacerbation.......Mortality rate is high in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Our aim was to investigate long-term mortality and associated risk factors in COPD patients previously hospitalized for a COPD exacerbation....

A protocol improves GP recording of long-term sickness absence risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

van Dijk, Paul; Hogervorst, Wouter; ter Riet, Gerben; van Dijk, Frank

2008-06-01

If general practitioners (GPs) were better informed about patients' risks of long-term sickness absence (LTSA), they could incorporate these risk assessments into their patient management plans and cooperate more with occupational physicians to prevent LTSA. To evaluate the effectiveness of a protocol helping GPs in recording risks of LTSA and in co-operating with occupational physicians (OPs). Twenty-six GPs (co-operating in four groups) in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, participated in a controlled intervention study. Fourteen GPs were the protocol-supported intervention group and twelve GPs were the reference group. Outcome measures were consultations containing work-related information, information about two risk factors for LTSA, referrals to OPs and contacts of OPs with GPs and patients. Outcomes were identified through an electronic search in the GPs' information systems. Entries containing information were independently scored by two investigators. The proportions of patients with consultations documenting LTSA-pertinent items were compared between the groups, accounting for differences at baseline. There was no increase in consultations containing work-related information. Recording of risk factor information increased in the intervention group; the difference was 4.5% [95% CI 1.5-7.6] and 1.8% (95% CI -0.8 to 4.4) for the two risk factors. The referral rate to the OP increased by 2.9% (95% CI 1.2-4.5). There was no effect on contacts of OPs with GPs or with patients. Protocol-supported consultations may lead to a modest increase in information regarding two risk factors for LTSA in GPs' electronic records and to more referrals to OPs.

Does the method of weight loss effect long-term changes in weight, body composition or chronic disease risk factors in overweight or obese adults? A systematic review.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard A Washburn

Full Text Available Differences in biological changes from weight loss by energy restriction and/or exercise may be associated with differences in long-term weight loss/regain.To assess the effect of weight loss method on long-term changes in weight, body composition and chronic disease risk factors.PubMed and Embase were searched (January 1990-October 2013 for studies with data on the effect of energy restriction, exercise (aerobic and resistance on long-term weight loss. Twenty articles were included in this review.Primary source, peer reviewed randomized trials published in English with an active weight loss period of >6 months, or active weight loss with a follow-up period of any duration, conducted in overweight or obese adults were included.Considerable heterogeneity across trials existed for important study parameters, therefore a meta-analysis was considered inappropriate. Results were synthesized and grouped by comparisons (e.g. diet vs. aerobic exercise, diet vs. diet + aerobic exercise etc. and study design (long-term or weight loss/follow-up.Forty percent of trials reported significantly greater long-term weight loss with diet compared with aerobic exercise, while results for differences in weight regain were inconclusive. Diet+aerobic exercise resulted in significantly greater weight loss than diet alone in 50% of trials. However, weight regain (∼ 55% of loss was similar in diet and diet+aerobic exercise groups. Fat-free mass tended to be preserved when interventions included exercise.

Double bypass for inoperable pancreatic malignancy at laparotomy: postoperative complications and long-term outcome

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Ausania, F; Vallance, AE; Manas, DM; Prentis, JM; Snowden, CP; White, SA; Charnley, RM; French, JJ; Jaques, BC

2012-01-01

INTRODUCTION Between 4% and 13% of patients with operable pancreatic malignancy are found unresectable at the time of surgery. Double bypass is a good option for fit patients but it is associated with high risk of postoperative complications. The aim of this study was to identify pre-operatively which patients undergoing double bypass are at high risk of complications and to assess their long-term outcome. METHODS Of the 576 patients undergoing pancreatic resections between 2006 and 2011, 50 patients who underwent a laparotomy for a planned pancreaticoduodenectomy had a double bypass procedure for inoperable disease. Demographic data, risk factors for postoperative complications and pre-operative anaesthetic assessment data including the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) and cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) were collected. RESULTS Fifty patients (33 men and 17 women) were included in the study. The median patient age was 64 years (range: 39–79 years). The complication rate was 50% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 4%. The P-POSSUM physiology subscore and low anaerobic threshold at CPET were significantly associated with postoperative complications (p=0.005 and p=0.016 respectively) but they were unable to predict them. Overall long-term survival was significantly shorter in patients with postoperative complications (9 vs 18 months). Postoperative complications were independently associated with poorer long-term survival (p=0.003, odds ratio: 3.261). CONCLUSIONS P-POSSUM and CPET are associated with postoperative complications but the possibility of using them for risk prediction requires further research. However, postoperative complications following double bypass have a significant impact on long-term survival and this type of surgery should therefore only be performed in specialised centres. PMID:23131226

Childhood fitness reduces the long-term cardiometabolic risks associated with childhood obesity.

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Schmidt, M D; Magnussen, C G; Rees, E; Dwyer, T; Venn, A J

2016-07-01

The objective of this study was to examine whether childhood cardiorespiratory fitness attenuates or modifies the long-term cardiometabolic risks associated with childhood obesity. The study consisted of a 20-year follow-up of 1792 adults who participated in the 1985 Australian Schools Health and Fitness Survey when they were 7-15 years of age. Baseline measures included a 1.6-km run to assess cardiorespiratory fitness and waist circumference to assess abdominal adiposity. At follow-up, participants attended study clinics where indicators of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) (waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and lipids) were measured and cardiorespiratory fitness was reassessed using a submaximal graded exercise test. Both high waist circumference and low cardiorespiratory fitness in childhood were significant independent predictors of MetS in early adulthood. The mutually adjusted relative risk of adult MetS was 3.00 (95% confidence interval: 1.85-4.89) for children in the highest (vs lowest) third of waist circumference and 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.43-0.96) for children with high (vs low) cardiorespiratory fitness. No significant interaction between waist circumference and fitness was observed, with higher levels of childhood fitness associated with lower risks of adult MetS among those with either low or high childhood waist circumference values. Participants who had both high waist circumference and low cardiorespiratory fitness in childhood were 8.5 times more likely to have MetS in adulthood than those who had low waist circumference and high cardiorespiratory fitness in childhood. Regardless of childhood obesity status, participants with low childhood fitness who increased their relative fitness by adulthood had a substantially lower prevalence of MetS than those who remained low fit. Childhood waist circumference and cardiorespiratory fitness are both strongly associated with cardiometabolic health in later life. Higher levels of

Heart diseases and long-term risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease: a population-based CAIDE study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rusanen, Minna; Kivipelto, Miia; Levälahti, Esko; Laatikainen, Tiina; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Soininen, Hilkka; Ngandu, Tiia

2014-01-01

Many cardiovascular risk factors are shown to increase the risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), but the impact of heart disease on later development of dementia is still unclear. The aim of the study was to investigate the long-term risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) related to midlife and late-life atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and coronary artery disease (CAD) in a population-based study with a follow-up of over 25 years. Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study includes 2000 participants who were randomly selected from four separate, population-based samples originally studied in midlife (1972, 1977, 1982, or 1987). Re-examinations were carried out in 1998 and 2005-2008. Altogether 1,510 (75.5%) persons participated in at least one re-examination, and 127 (8.4%) persons were diagnosed with dementia (of which 102 had AD). AF in late-life was an independent risk factor for dementia (HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.05-6.47; p = 0.039) and AD (HR 2.54, 95% CI 1.04-6.16; p = 0.040) in the fully adjusted analyses. The association was even stronger among the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 non-carriers. Late-life HF, but not CAD, tended to increase the risks as well. Heart diseases diagnosed at midlife did not increase the risk of later dementia and AD. Late-life heart diseases increase the subsequent risk of dementia and AD. Prevention and effective treatment of heart diseases may be important also from the perspective of brain health and cognitive functioning.

Self-reported noise exposure as a risk factor for long-term sickness absence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clausen, Thomas; Christensen, Karl Bang; Lund, Thomas

2009-01-01

men and women when adjusting for demographic factors and health behavior. After further adjustment for physical workload at work the association between noise exposure and sickness absence disappeared for women, but not for men. Men that reported to be exposed to loud noise between one......Self-reported noise exposure is on the rise in Denmark. Little is known, however, about the social consequences, including sickness absence, of noise exposure. The aim of this paper was to investigate the association between self-reported noise exposure and long-term sickness absence....... The association was investigated using the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze outcomes in Danish register data on the basis of Danish survey data (5357 employees aged 18-69 in 2000). The analyses showed that self-reported noise exposure was significantly associated with long-term sickness absence for both...

Group long-term care insurance: decision-making factors and implications for financing long-term care.

Science.gov (United States)

Stum, Marlene S

2008-01-01

This study proposes and tests a systemic family decision-making framework to understand group long-term care insurance (LTCI) enrollment decisions. A random sample of public employees who were offered group LTCI as a workplace benefit were examined. Findings reveal very good predictive efficacy for the overall conceptual framework with a pseudo R2 value of .687, and reinforced the contributions of factors within the family system. Enrollees were more likely to have discussed the decision with others, used information sources, and had prior experience when compared to non-enrollees. Perceived health status, financial knowledge, attitudes regarding the role of private insurance, risk taking, and coverage features were additional factors related to enrollment decisions. The findings help to inform policymakers about the potential of LTCI as one strategy for financing long-term care.

Accumulation of Cd in agricultural soil under long-term reclaimed water irrigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Weiping; Lu, Sidan; Peng, Chi; Jiao, Wentao; Wang, Meie

2013-01-01

Safety of agricultural irrigation with reclaimed water is of great concern as some potential hazardous compounds like heavy metals may be accumulated in soils over time. Impacts of long-term reclaimed water on soil Cd pollution were evaluated based on the field investigation in two main crop areas in Beijing with long irrigation history and on simulation results of STEM-profile model. Under long-term reclaimed water, Cd content in the top 20 cm soil layer was greatly elevated and was more than 2 times higher than that in the deep soil layer. There was very small differences between the field measured and model simulated Cd content in the plow layer (top 20 cm) and entire soil layer. Long-term model prediction showed that reclaimed water irrigation had a low environmental risk of soil Cd pollution, but the risk would be aggravated when there were high metal loading from other sources. The risk is also depending on the soil and plant properties. -- Highlights: •Root zone soil Cd content was elevated by one time under long-term reclaimed water irrigation. •The STEM-profile model can well track the Cd balance in the soil profile. •Reclaimed water irrigation plays a limited role on soil Cd accumulation in Beijing croplands. -- There was a low risk of soil Cd pollution under long-term reclaimed water irrigation

Long-term success and risk for marathon runners

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schueller-Weidekamm, C.

2010-01-01

The popularity of marathon running has increased during recent years, which is reflected by the dramatic increase in the number of competitions and participants. Running a marathon itself does not usually cause any severe lesions of the joints but the problems mostly occur during training prior to the marathon. Before the event runners often question whether they can successfully take part in the competition and cope with the pain that might occur during running. In addition to the rare acute trauma, which is in general caused by falls or slipping, chronic injuries are of particular relevance for long distance running. This article describes the typical patterns of injuries to long distance runners, the positive effects of running a marathon and the risk factors for injuries. (orig.) [de

Analysis of risk factors causing short-term cement leakages and long-term complications after percutaneous kyphoplasty for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Chang; Zong, Min; Wang, Wen-Tao; Xu, Lei; Cao, Da; Zou, Yue-Fen

2018-05-01

Background Percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) is a common treatment modality for painful osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs). Pre- and postoperative identification of risk factors for cement leakage and follow-up complications would therefore be helpful but has not been systematically investigated. Purpose To evaluate pre- and postoperative risk factors for the occurrence of short-term cement leakages and long-term complications after PKP for OVCFs. Material and Methods A total of 283 vertebrae with PKP in 239 patients were investigated. Possible risk factors causing cement leakage and complications during follow-up periods were retrospectively assessed using multivariate analysis. Cement leakage in general, three fundamental leakage types, and complications during follow-up period were directly identified through postoperative computed tomography (CT). Results Generally, the presence of cortical disruption ( P = 0.001), large volume of cement ( P = 0.012), and low bone mineral density (BMD) ( P = 0.002) were three strong predictors for cement leakage. While the presence of intravertebral cleft and Schmorl nodes ( P = 0.045 and 0.025, respectively) were respectively identified as additional risk factors for paravertebral and intradiscal subtype of cortical (C-type) leakages. In terms of follow-up complications, occurrence of cortical leakage was a strong risk factor both for new VCFs ( P = 0.043) and for recompression ( P = 0.004). Conclusion The presence of cortical disruption, large volume of cement, and low BMD of treated level are general but strong predictors for cement leakage. The presence of intravertebral cleft and Schmorl nodes are additional risk factors for cortical leakage. During follow-up, the occurrence of C-type leakage is a strong risk factor, for both new VCFs and recompression.

Long-term neurodevelopmental outcome after selective feticide in monochorionic pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

van Klink, Jmm; Koopman, H M; Middeldorp, J M; Klumper, F J; Rijken, M; Oepkes, D; Lopriore, E

2015-10-01

To assess the incidence of and risk factors for adverse long-term neurodevelopmental outcome in complicated monochorionic pregnancies treated with selective feticide at our centre between 2000 and 2011. Observational cohort study. National referral centre for fetal therapy (Leiden University Medical Centre, the Netherlands). Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed in 74 long-term survivors. Children, at least 2 years of age, underwent an assessment of neurologic, motor and cognitive development using standardised psychometric tests and the parents completed a behavioural questionnaire. A composite outcome termed neurodevelopmental impairment including cerebral palsy (GMFCS II-V), cognitive and/or motor test score of Neurodevelopmental impairment was detected in 5/74 [6.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-12.5] of survivors. Overall adverse outcome, including perinatal mortality or neurodevelopmental impairment was 48/131 (36.6%). In multivariate analysis, parental educational level was associated with cognitive test scores (regression coefficient B 3.9, 95% CI 1.8-6.0). Behavioural problems were reported in 10/69 (14.5%). Adverse long-term outcome in survivor twins of complicated monochorionic pregnancies treated with selective feticide appears to be more prevalent than in the general population. Cognitive test scores were associated with parental educational level. Neurodevelopmental impairment after selective feticide was detected in 5/74 (6.8%, 95% CI 1.1-12.5) of survivors. © 2015 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Toxicities Associated with Cisplatin-Based Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Long-Term Testicular Cancer Survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunkit Fung

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Testicular cancer has become the paradigm of adult-onset cancer survivorship, due to the young age at diagnosis and 10-year relative survival of 95%. This clinical review presents the current status of various treatment-related complications experienced by long-term testicular cancer survivors (TCS free of disease for 5 or more years after primary treatment. Cardiovascular disease and second malignant neoplasms represent the most common potentially life-threatening late effects. Other long-term adverse outcomes include neuro- and ototoxicity, pulmonary complications, nephrotoxicity, hypogonadism, infertility, and avascular necrosis. Future research efforts should focus on delineation of the genetic underpinning of these long-term toxicities to understand their biologic basis and etiopathogenetic pathways, with the goal of developing targeted prevention and intervention strategies to optimize risk-based care and minimize chronic morbidities. In the interim, health care providers should advise TCS to adhere to national guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease risk factors, as well as to adopt behaviors consistent with a healthy lifestyle, including smoking cessation, a balanced diet, and a moderate to vigorous intensity exercise program. TCS should also follow national guidelines for cancer screening as currently applied to the general population.

Toxicities Associated with Cisplatin-Based Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Long-Term Testicular Cancer Survivors

Science.gov (United States)

Dinh, Paul; Ardeshir-Rouhani-Fard, Shirin; Fossa, Sophie D.; Travis, Lois B.

2018-01-01

Testicular cancer has become the paradigm of adult-onset cancer survivorship, due to the young age at diagnosis and 10-year relative survival of 95%. This clinical review presents the current status of various treatment-related complications experienced by long-term testicular cancer survivors (TCS) free of disease for 5 or more years after primary treatment. Cardiovascular disease and second malignant neoplasms represent the most common potentially life-threatening late effects. Other long-term adverse outcomes include neuro- and ototoxicity, pulmonary complications, nephrotoxicity, hypogonadism, infertility, and avascular necrosis. Future research efforts should focus on delineation of the genetic underpinning of these long-term toxicities to understand their biologic basis and etiopathogenetic pathways, with the goal of developing targeted prevention and intervention strategies to optimize risk-based care and minimize chronic morbidities. In the interim, health care providers should advise TCS to adhere to national guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease risk factors, as well as to adopt behaviors consistent with a healthy lifestyle, including smoking cessation, a balanced diet, and a moderate to vigorous intensity exercise program. TCS should also follow national guidelines for cancer screening as currently applied to the general population. PMID:29670654

Effect of BRCA1/2 mutation on short-term and long-term breast cancer survival: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Eun-Ha; Park, Sue K; Park, Boyoung; Kim, Sung-Won; Lee, Min Hyuk; Ahn, Sei Hyun; Son, Byung Ho; Yoo, Keun-Young; Kang, Daehee

2010-07-01

Reports of BRCA genetic mutations and risk of death or recurrence are inconsistent. This study aimed to compare overall and disease-free breast cancer survival rates between BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers for short-term and long-term outcomes separately. We searched the PUBMED and EMBASE databases and retrieved 452 articles using keywords that included breast cancer, BRCA mutation, and survival. Seventeen articles were selected for systematic review and among them 11 were included in our meta-analysis. We used the random-effects model to calculate the summary hazard ratio and corresponding 95% confidence interval. BRCA1 mutation carriers had significantly lower short-term and long-term overall survival rates (OSR) relative to non-carriers (HR = 1.92 [95% CI = 1.45-2.53]; 1.33 [1.12-1.58], respectively), while both short-term and long-term OSR of BRCA2 carriers did not differ from non-carriers (HR = 1.30 [95% CI = 0.95-1.76]; 1.12 [95% CI = 0.86-1.45], respectively). For short-term progression-free survival rate (PFSR), BRCA1 mutation carriers had a significantly lower rate than non-carriers (HR = 1.54 [95% CI = 1.12-2.12]), while BRCA2 mutation carriers had a similar PFSR (HR = 1.23 [95% CI = 0.96-1.58]). For long-term PFSRs, we found no significant results. Our results suggest that BRCA1 mutation decreases short-term and long-term OSRs and short-term PFSR, however, BRCA2 mutation does not affect either short-term or long-term survival rate, which is attributed to the different carcinogenic pathways for BRCA1 and BRCA2.

Clinical epidemiology of long-term suicide risk in a nationwide population-based cohort study in South Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyewon; Myung, Woojae; Lee, Chunsoo; Choi, Junbae; Kim, Ho; Carroll, Bernard J; Kim, Doh Kwan

2018-05-01

We investigated the effects of a large range of clinical factors on the long-term risk of suicide in the general population of South Korea. We analyzed the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC) database in South Korea. A total of 300,232 individuals were followed for up to 12 years. We obtained information on demographic variables (age and sex), lifestyle variables (cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking and exercise), psychiatric and physical disorders, laboratory examination results and physical examination findings. We conducted a competing risk survival analysis to estimate the risk of completed suicide. 725 individuals (241/100,000) died by suicide in the follow-up period. After Bonferroni correction, we found a significant suicide risk associated with 6 variables: Parkinson's disease, depressive disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder (inverted association), elevated serum aspartate aminotransferase levels, male gender and age. Before Bonferroni correction, variables such as cigarette smoking, heavy alcohol drinking, psychotic disorder, other psychiatric disorder, benzodiazepine use and higher fasting glucose showed some significant association. In addition, body mass index and height were inversely related to completed suicide before Bonferroni correction. However, only the 6 variables listed above were robust predictors of suicide in the fully adjusted analyses with multiple test correction. Common medical conditions had no clear influence on suicide. Diverse clinical factors influenced the long-term risk of completed suicide in this general population sample. Comprehensive assessment of these risk factors will facilitate more focused suicide surveillance measures. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predictors and long-term health outcomes of eating disorders.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katie M O'Brien

Full Text Available Anorexia and bulimia nervosa may have long-term effects on overall and reproductive health. We studied predictors of self-reported eating disorders and associations with later health events. We estimated odds ratios (ORs for these associations in 47,759 participants from the Sister Study. Two percent (n = 967 of participants reported a history of an eating disorder. Risk factors included being non-Hispanic white, having well-educated parents, recent birth cohort (OR = 2.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.01-2.32 per decade, and having a sister with an eating disorder (OR = 3.68, CI: 1.92-7.02. As adults, women who had experienced eating disorders were more likely to smoke, to be underweight, to have had depression, to have had a later first birth, to have experienced bleeding or nausea during pregnancy, or to have had a miscarriage or induced abortion. In this descriptive analysis, we identified predictors of and possible long-term health consequences of eating disorders. Eating disorders may have become more common over time. Interventions should focus on prevention and mitigation of long-term adverse health effects.

Importation, Antibiotics, and Clostridium difficile Infection in Veteran Long-Term Care: A Multilevel Case-Control Study.

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Brown, Kevin A; Jones, Makoto; Daneman, Nick; Adler, Frederick R; Stevens, Vanessa; Nechodom, Kevin E; Goetz, Matthew B; Samore, Matthew H; Mayer, Jeanmarie

2016-06-21

Although clinical factors affecting a person's susceptibility to Clostridium difficile infection are well-understood, little is known about what drives differences in incidence across long-term care settings. To obtain a comprehensive picture of individual and regional factors that affect C difficile incidence. Multilevel longitudinal nested case-control study. Veterans Health Administration health care regions, from 2006 through 2012. Long-term care residents. Individual-level risk factors included age, number of comorbid conditions, and antibiotic exposure. Regional risk factors included importation of cases of acute care C difficile infection per 10 000 resident-days and antibiotic use per 1000 resident-days. The outcome was defined as a positive result on a long-term care C difficile test without a positive result in the prior 8 weeks. 6012 cases (incidence, 3.7 cases per 10 000 resident-days) were identified in 86 regions. Long-term care C difficile incidence (minimum, 0.6 case per 10 000 resident-days; maximum, 31.0 cases per 10 000 resident-days), antibiotic use (minimum, 61.0 days with therapy per 1000 resident-days; maximum, 370.2 days with therapy per 1000 resident-days), and importation (minimum, 2.9 cases per 10 000 resident-days; maximum, 341.3 cases per 10 000 resident-days) varied substantially across regions. Together, antibiotic use and importation accounted for 75% of the regional variation in C difficile incidence (R2 = 0.75). Multilevel analyses showed that regional factors affected risk together with individual-level exposures (relative risk of regional antibiotic use, 1.36 per doubling [95% CI, 1.15 to 1.60]; relative risk of importation, 1.23 per doubling [CI, 1.14 to 1.33]). Case identification was based on laboratory criteria. Admission of residents with recent C difficile infection from non-Veterans Health Administration acute care sources was not considered. Only 25% of the variation in regional C difficile incidence in long-term

Long-term athletic development- part 1: a pathway for all youth.

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Lloyd, Rhodri S; Oliver, Jon L; Faigenbaum, Avery D; Howard, Rick; De Ste Croix, Mark B A; Williams, Craig A; Best, Thomas M; Alvar, Brent A; Micheli, Lyle J; Thomas, D Phillip; Hatfield, Disa L; Cronin, John B; Myer, Gregory D

2015-05-01

The concept of developing talent and athleticism in youth is the goal of many coaches and sports systems. Consequently, an increasing number of sporting organizations have adopted long-term athletic development models in an attempt to provide a structured approach to the training of youth. It is clear that maximizing sporting talent is an important goal of long-term athletic development models. However, ensuring that youth of all ages and abilities are provided with a strategic plan for the development of their health and physical fitness is also important to maximize physical activity participation rates, reduce the risk of sport- and activity-related injury, and to ensure long-term health and well-being. Critical reviews of independent models of long-term athletic development are already present within the literature; however, to the best of our knowledge, a comprehensive examination and review of the most prominent models does not exist. Additionally, considerations of modern day issues that may impact on the success of any long-term athletic development model are lacking, as are proposed solutions to address such issues. Therefore, within this 2-part commentary, Part 1 provides a critical review of existing models of practice for long-term athletic development and introduces a composite youth development model that includes the integration of talent, psychosocial and physical development across maturation. Part 2 identifies limiting factors that may restrict the success of such models and offers potential solutions.

Persistence of type-specific human papillomavirus infection and increased long-term risk of cervical cancer.

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Chen, Hui-Chi; Schiffman, Mark; Lin, Ching-Yu; Pan, Mei-Hung; You, San-Lin; Chuang, Li-Chung; Hsieh, Chang-Yao; Liaw, Kai-Li; Hsing, Ann W; Chen, Chien-Jen

2011-09-21

Human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence is the pivotal event in cervical carcinogenesis. We followed a large-scale community-based cohort for 16 years to investigate the role of genotype-specific HPV persistence in predicting cervical cancer including invasive and in situ carcinoma. At the baseline examination in 1991-1992, 11,923 participants (aged 30-65 years) consented to HPV testing and cytology; 6923 participants were reexamined in 1993-1995. For HPV testing, we used a polymerase chain reaction-based assay that detected 39 HPV types. Women who developed cervical cancer were identified from cancer and death registries. Cumulative risks for developing cervical cancer among infected and persistently infected women were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Of 10,123 women who were initially cytologically normal, 68 developed cervical cancer. The 16-year cumulative risks of subsequent cervical cancer for women with HPV16, HPV58 (without HPV16), or other carcinogenic HPV types (without HPV16 or HPV58) were 13.5%, 10.3%, and 4.0%, respectively, compared with 0.26% for HPV-negative women. Women with type-specific persistence of any carcinogenic HPV had greatly increased risk compared with women who were HPV-negative at both visits (hazard ratio = 75.4, 95% confidence interval = 31.8 to 178.9). The cumulative cervical cancer risks following persistent carcinogenic HPV infections increased with age: The risks were 5.5%, 14.4%, and 18.1% for women aged 30-44 years, 45-54 years, and 55 years and older, respectively. However, newly acquired infections were associated with a low risk of cervical cancer regardless of age. HPV negativity was associated with a very low long-term risk of cervical cancer. Persistent detection of HPV among cytologically normal women greatly increased risk. Thus, it is useful to perform repeated HPV testing following an initial positive test.

Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

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Scott-Marshall, Heather K; Tompa, Emile; Wang, Ying; Liao, Qing

2014-07-11

Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution (including PM1) and metabolic syndrome: The 33 Communities Chinese Health Study (33CCHS).

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Yang, Bo-Yi; Qian, Zhengmin Min; Li, Shanshan; Fan, Shujun; Chen, Gongbo; Syberg, Kevin M; Xian, Hong; Wang, Si-Quan; Ma, Huimin; Chen, Duo-Hong; Yang, Mo; Liu, Kang-Kang; Zeng, Xiao-Wen; Hu, Li-Wen; Guo, Yuming; Dong, Guang-Hui

2018-07-01

Little evidence exists about the effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution on metabolic syndrome (MetS). This study aimed to determine the association between long-term ambient air pollution and MetS in China. A total of 15,477 adults who participated in the 33 Communities Chinese Health Study (33CCHS) in 2009 were evaluated. MetS was defined based on the recommendation by the Joint Interim Societies. Exposure to air pollutants was assessed using data from monitoring stations and a spatial statistical model (including particles with diameters ≤ 1.0 µm (PM 1 ), ≤ 2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ), and ≤ 10 µm (PM 10 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and ozone (O 3 )). Two-level logistic regression analyses were utilized to assess the associations between air pollutants and MetS. The prevalence of MetS was 30.37%. The adjusted odds ratio of MetS per 10 µg/m 3 increase in PM 1 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 , SO 2 , NO 2 , and O 3 were 1.12 (95% CI = 1.00-1.24), 1.09 (95% CI = 1.00-1.18), 1.13 (95% CI = 1.08-1.19), 1.10 (95% CI = 1.02-1.18), 1.33 (95% CI = 1.12-1.57), and 1.10 (95% CI = 1.01-1.18), respectively. Stratified analyses indicated that the above associations were stronger in participants with the demographic variables of males, < 50 years of age, and higher income, as well as with the behavioral characteristics of smoking, drinking, and consuming sugar-sweetened soft drinks frequently. This study indicates that long-term exposure to ambient air pollutants may increase the risk of MetS, especially among males, the young to middle aged, those of low income, and those with unhealthy lifestyles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Plasma Aluminum Concentrations in Pediatric Patients Receiving Long-Term Parenteral Nutrition.

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Courtney-Martin, Glenda; Kosar, Christina; Campbell, Alison; Avitzur, Yaron; Wales, Paul W; Steinberg, Karen; Harrison, Debra; Chambers, Kathryn

2015-07-01

Patients receiving long-term parenteral nutrition (PN) are at increased risk of aluminium (Al) toxicity because of bypass of the gastrointestinal tract during PN infusion. Complications of Al toxicity include metabolic bone disease (MBD), Al-associated encephalopathy in adults, and impaired neurological development in preterm infants. Unlike the United States, there are no regulations regarding Al content of large- and small-volume parenterals in Canada. We, therefore, aimed to present our data on plasma Al concentration and Al intake from our cohort of pediatric patients receiving long-term PN. Plasma Al concentration was retrospectively gathered from the patient charts of all 27 patients with intestinal failure (IF) receiving long-term PN at The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada, and compared with age- and sex-matched controls recruited for comparison. In addition, Al concentration was measured in PN samples collected from 10 randomly selected patients with IF and used to determine their Al intake. The plasma Al concentration of patients with IF receiving long-term PN was significantly higher than that of control participants (1195 ± 710 vs 142 ± 63 nmol/L; P Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

Local Government Implementation of Long-Term Stewardship at Two DOE Facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John Pendergrass; Roman Czebiniak; Kelly Mott; Seth Kirshenberg; Audrey Eidelman; Zachary Lamb; Erica Pencak; Wendy Sandoz

2003-08-13

The Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleaning up the radioactive and chemical contamination that resulted from the production of nuclear weapons. At more than one hundred sites throughout the country DOE will leave some contamination in place after the cleanup is complete. In order to protect human health and the environment from the remaining contamination DOE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), state environmental regulatory agencies, local governments, citizens and other entities will need to undertake long-term stewardship of such sites. Long-term stewardship includes a wide range of actions needed to protect human health in the environment for as long as the risk from the contamination remains above acceptable levels, such as barriers, caps, and other engineering controls and land use controls, signs, notices, records, and other institutional controls. In this report the Environmental Law Institute (ELI) and the Energy Communities Alliance (ECA) examine how local governments, state environmental agencies, and real property professionals implement long-term stewardship at two DOE facilities, Losa Alamos National Laboratory and Oak Ridge Reservation.

Long-term memory, sleep, and the spacing effect.

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Bell, Matthew C; Kawadri, Nader; Simone, Patricia M; Wiseheart, Melody

2014-01-01

Many studies have shown that memory is enhanced when study sessions are spaced apart rather than massed. This spacing effect has been shown to have a lasting benefit to long-term memory when the study phase session follows the encoding session by 24 hours. Using a spacing paradigm we examined the impact of sleep and spacing gaps on long-term declarative memory for Swahili-English word pairs by including four spacing delay gaps (massed, 12 hours same-day, 12 hours overnight, and 24 hours). Results showed that a 12-hour spacing gap that includes sleep promotes long-term memory retention similar to the 24-hour gap. The findings support the importance of sleep to the long-term benefit of the spacing effect.

Change in Vascular Access and Hospitalization Risk in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients

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Wang, Weiling; Lazarus, J. Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

2010-01-01

Background and objectives: Conversion from central venous catheters to a graft or a fistula is associated with lower mortality risk in long-term hemodialysis (HD) patients; however, a similar association with hospitalization risk remains to be elucidated. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: We conducted a prospective observational study all maintenance in-center HD patients who were treated in Fresenius Medical Care, North America legacy facilities; were alive on January 1, 2007; and had baseline laboratory data from December 2006. Access conversion (particularly from a catheter to a fistula or a graft) during the 4-month period from January 1 through April 30, 2007, was linked using Cox models to hospitalization risk during the succeeding 1-year follow-up period (until April 30, 2008). Results: The cohort (N = 79,545) on January 1, 2007 had 43% fistulas, 29% catheters, and 27% grafts. By April 30, 2007, 70,852 patients were still on HD, and among 19,792 catheters initially, only 10.3% (2045 patients) converted to either a graft or a fistula. With catheters as reference, patients who converted to grafts/fistulas had similar adjusted hazard ratios (0.69) as patients on fistulas (0.71), while patients with fistulas/grafts who converted to catheters did worse (1.22), all P < 0.0001. Conclusions: Catheters remain associated with the greatest hospitalization risk. Conversion from a catheter to either graft or fistula had significantly lower hospitalization risk relative to keeping the catheter. Prospective studies are needed to determine whether programs that reduce catheters will decrease hospitalization risk in HD patients. PMID:20884778

Long-Term Outcomes for the Promoting CARE Suicide Prevention Program

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Hooven, Carole; Herting, Jerald R.; Snedker, Karen A.

2010-01-01

Objectives: To provide a long-term look at suicide risk from adolescence to young adulthood for former participants in Promoting CARE, an indicated suicide prevention program. Methods: Five hundred ninety-three suicide-vulnerable high school youth were involved in a long-term follow-up study. Latent class growth models identify patterns of change…

Long-term antibiotics for preventing recurrent urinary tract infection in children.

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Williams, Gabrielle; Craig, Jonathan C

2011-03-16

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is common in children. Symptoms include fever, lethargy, anorexia, and vomiting. UTI is caused by Escherichia coli in over 80% of cases and treatment is a course of antibiotics. Due to acute illness caused by UTI and the risk of pyelonephritis-induced permanent kidney damage, many children are given long-term antibiotics aimed at preventing recurrence. To determine the efficacy and harms of long-term antibiotics to prevent recurrent UTI in children. In November 2010 we searched without language restriction MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL (in the Cochrane Library), the Cochrane Renal Group's Specialised Register, reference lists of review articles and contacted content experts. Randomised comparisons of antibiotics with other antibiotics, placebo or no treatment to prevent recurrent UTI. Two authors independently assessed and extracted information. A random-effects model was used to estimate risk ratio (RR) and risk difference (RD) for recurrent UTI with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Twelve studies (1557 children) were identified with six (five analysed, 1069 children) comparing antibiotics with placebo/no treatment. Duration of antibiotic prophylaxis varied from 10 weeks to 12 months. Compared to placebo/no treatment, when all studies were included, antibiotics did not appear to reduce the risk of symptomatic UTI (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.53) however when we evaluated the effects of antibiotics in studies with low risk of bias, there was a statistically significant reduction (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.95). The effect was similar in children with vesicoureteric reflux (VUR) (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.07) compared to those without VUR (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.15 to 2.12). There was no consistency in occurrence of adverse events. Three studies reported antibiotic resistance, showing a non-significant increased risk for resistance to the antibiotic in the active treatment groups (RR 2.4, 95% CI 0.62 to 9.26).Five studies (4 analysed, 367 children

Disrupted Bone Metabolism in Long-Term Bedridden Patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keiko Eimori

Full Text Available Bedridden patients are at risk of osteoporosis and fractures, although the long-term bone metabolic processes in these patients are poorly understood. Therefore, we aimed to determine how long-term bed confinement affects bone metabolism.This study included 36 patients who had been bedridden from birth due to severe immobility. Bone mineral density and bone metabolism markers were compared to the bedridden period in all study patients. Changes in the bone metabolism markers during a follow-up of 12 years were studied in 17 patients aged <30 years at baseline.The bone mineral density was reduced (0.58±0.19 g/cm3, and the osteocalcin (13.9±12.4 ng/mL and urine N-terminal telopeptide (NTX levels (146.9±134.0 mM BCE/mM creatinine were greater than the cutoff value for predicting fracture. Among the bone metabolism markers studied, osteocalcin and NTX were negatively associated with the bedridden period. During the follow-up, osteocalcin and parathyroid hormone were decreased, and the 25(OH vitamin D was increased. NTX at baseline was negatively associated with bone mineral density after 12 years.Unique bone metabolic abnormalities were found in patients who had been bedridden for long periods, and these metabolic abnormalities were altered by further bed confinement. Appropriate treatment based on the unique bone metabolic changes may be important in long-term bedridden patients.

Energy in 2010 - 2020. Long term challenges; Energie 2010-2020. Les defis du long terme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dessus, Benjamin [ed.] [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France)

2000-02-02

This report presents the results of a workshop intending to anticipate the long term challenges, to guide better the short term power options, to understand the available political, economical and technical assumptions for the prospective world situation, to give some strategic hints on the necessary transition. Indeed, the difficult issue which the workshop tried to tackle was how should we prepare to reveal the energetic challenge of the development of the eight to ten billion inhabitants of our Planet in the next century without jeopardizing its existence. The energetic problems, a hardcore of the international preoccupation of both growth and environment, as it was recently evidenced by the climatic conference in Kyoto, have ever been the object of a particular attention on the part of General Commissariat of Plan. Thus, the commission 'Energy in 2010 - 2020' has been instituted in April 1996 in order to update the works done in 1990 - 1991 by the commission 'Energy 2010'. Soon it occurred to this new commission the task of illuminating its works by a long term (2050 - 2100) world prospective analysis of the challenges and problems linked to energy, growth and environment. In conclusion, this document tried to find answers to questions like: - which are the risks the energy consumption augmentation entail? - can we control them by appropriate urbanism and transport policies or technological innovation?. Four options for immediate action are suggested: - the energy efficiency should become a priority objective of policies; -coping with the long term challenges requires acting at present; - building the transition between governmental leadership and market; - taking profit of all the possible synergies between short and long term planning.

Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

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Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

2015-12-01

Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Does the Method of Weight Loss Effect Long-Term Changes in Weight, Body Composition or Chronic Disease Risk Factors in Overweight or Obese Adults? A Systematic Review

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Washburn, Richard A.; Szabo, Amanda N.; Lambourne, Kate; Willis, Erik A.; Ptomey, Lauren T.; Honas, Jeffery J.; Herrmann, Stephen D.; Donnelly, Joseph E.

2014-01-01

Background Differences in biological changes from weight loss by energy restriction and/or exercise may be associated with differences in long-term weight loss/regain. Objective To assess the effect of weight loss method on long-term changes in weight, body composition and chronic disease risk factors. Data Sources PubMed and Embase were searched (January 1990-October 2013) for studies with data on the effect of energy restriction, exercise (aerobic and resistance) on long-term weight loss. Twenty articles were included in this review. Study Eligibility Criteria Primary source, peer reviewed randomized trials published in English with an active weight loss period of >6 months, or active weight loss with a follow-up period of any duration, conducted in overweight or obese adults were included. Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods Considerable heterogeneity across trials existed for important study parameters, therefore a meta-analysis was considered inappropriate. Results were synthesized and grouped by comparisons (e.g. diet vs. aerobic exercise, diet vs. diet + aerobic exercise etc.) and study design (long-term or weight loss/follow-up). Results Forty percent of trials reported significantly greater long-term weight loss with diet compared with aerobic exercise, while results for differences in weight regain were inconclusive. Diet+aerobic exercise resulted in significantly greater weight loss than diet alone in 50% of trials. However, weight regain (∼55% of loss) was similar in diet and diet+aerobic exercise groups. Fat-free mass tended to be preserved when interventions included exercise. PMID:25333384

Successful heel pressure ulcer prevention program in a long-term care setting.

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Lyman, Vicky

2009-01-01

Heel pressure ulcers (PUs) are common in long-term healthcare settings. Early identification of risk and the use of preventive measures are central to reducing the morbidity, mortality, and high medical costs associated with heel PUs. A Quality Improvement Process was initated based on a tailored protocol, in-service education program, and a heel protective device was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. The Braden Scale was used to evaluate PU risk in 550 patients in a long-term healthcare facility. Patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and with 1 of 7 high-risk comorbidities were considered at high risk for PUs, and this prompted a more aggressive prevention program that included a protocol for reducing the risk of heel ulceration. The number of hospital-acquired heel PUs during the 6-month preintervention period was 39. Following the intervention, there were 2 occurrences, representing a 95% reduction in heel ulcers between the 2 periods. After the cost of 2 heel protectors for 550 at-risk patients was subtracted from the estimated cost of treating the 37 heel ulcers prevented, the estimated cost savings was calculated to be between $12,400 and $1,048,400.

Bleeding Risk with Long-Term Low-Dose Aspirin: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies

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García Rodríguez, Luis A.; Martín-Pérez, Mar; Hennekens, Charles H.; Rothwell, Peter M.; Lanas, Angel

2016-01-01

Background Low-dose aspirin has proven effectiveness in secondary and primary prevention of cardiovascular events, but is also associated with an increased risk of major bleeding events. For primary prevention, this absolute risk must be carefully weighed against the benefits of aspirin; such assessments are currently limited by a lack of data from general populations. Methods Systematic searches of Medline and Embase were conducted to identify observational studies published between 1946 and 4 March 2015 that reported the risks of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding or intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) with long-term, low-dose aspirin (75–325 mg/day). Pooled estimates of the relative risk (RR) for bleeding events with aspirin versus non-use were calculated using random-effects models, based on reported estimates of RR (including odds ratios, hazard ratios, incidence rate ratios and standardized incidence ratios) in 39 articles. Findings The incidence of GI bleeding with low-dose aspirin was 0.48–3.64 cases per 1000 person-years, and the overall pooled estimate of the RR with low-dose aspirin was 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2–1.7). For upper and lower GI bleeding, the RRs with low-dose aspirin were 2.3 (2.0–2.6) and 1.8 (1.1–3.0), respectively. Neither aspirin dose nor duration of use had consistent effects on RRs for upper GI bleeding. The estimated RR for ICH with low-dose aspirin was 1.4 (1.2–1.7) overall. Aspirin was associated with increased bleeding risks when combined with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, clopidogrel and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors compared with monotherapy. By contrast, concomitant use of proton pump inhibitors decreased upper GI bleeding risks relative to aspirin monotherapy. Conclusions The risks of major bleeding with low-dose aspirin in real-world settings are of a similar magnitude to those reported in randomized trials. These data will help inform clinical judgements regarding the use of low-dose aspirin

Observer-rated depression in long-term care: frequency and risk factors.

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McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe the prevalence and 6-month incidence of observer-rated depression in residents age 65 and over of long-term care (LTC) facilities; (2) to describe risk factors for depression, at baseline and over time. A multisite, prospective observational study was conducted in residents aged 65 and over of 7 LTC facilities. The Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) was completed by nurses monthly for 6 months. We measured demographic, medical, and functional factors at baseline and monthly intervals, using data from research assessments, nurse interviews, and chart reviews. 274 residents were recruited and completed baseline depression assessments. The prevalence of depression (CSDD score of 6+) was 19.0%. The incidence of depression among those without prevalent depression was 73.3 per 100 person-years. A delirium diagnosis, pain, and diabetes were independently associated with prevalent depression. CSDD score at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were independent risk factors for incident depression. A diagnosis of delirium and uncorrected visual impairment at follow-up occurred concurrently with incident depression. The results of this study have implications for the detection and prevention of depression in LTC. Delirium diagnosis, pain and diabetes at baseline were associated with prevalent depression; depression symptoms at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were risk factors for incident depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term mortality and causes of death associated with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gotland, N; Uhre, M L; Mejer, N

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Data describing long-term mortality in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) is scarce. This study investigated risk factors, causes of death and temporal trends in long-term mortality associated with SAB. METHODS: Nationwide population-based matched cohort study...... respiratory disease, nervous system disease, unknown causes, psychiatric disorders, cardiovascular disease and senility. Over time, rates of death decreased or were stable for all disease categories except for musculoskeletal and skin disease where a trend towards an increase was seen. CONCLUSION: Long......-term mortality after SAB was high but decreased over time. SAB cases were more likely to die of eight specific causes of death and less likely to die of five other causes of death compared to controls. Causes of death decreased for most disease categories. Risk factors associated with long-term mortality were...

Brain size and neuropsychological functioning in long-term survivors of pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

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Mulcahy Levy, Jean M; Hunger, Stephen P

2013-10-01

With the increased survival of pediatric cancer patients the interest in the late effects of treatments is rapidly increasing. Long-term survival rates for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) now approach 90%. Treatment for ALL includes intensified central nervous system (CNS)-directed therapy, which is associated with risks for long-term neurocognitive effects. It is becoming clear that current therapies can have not only a detrimental effect on IQ, processing speed, and memory, but also on structural changes that lead to permanent alterations of the organization of the CNS. Understanding how the CNS is affected by the treatments is a critical step in evaluating current therapies and developing interventions to decrease the incidence and severity of long-term changes in brain anatomy and function.

Outcomes and long-term survival of coronary artery surgery: The controversial role of opium as risk marker

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Najafi, Mahdi; Jahangiry, Leila; Mortazavi, Seyedeh Hamideh; Jalali, Arash; Karimi, Abbasali; Bozorgi, Ali

2016-01-01

AIM To study survival in isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients and to evaluate the impact of preoperative chronic opium consumption on long-term outcome. METHODS Cohort of 566 isolated CABG patients as Tehran Heart Center cardiac output measurement was conducted. Daily evaluation until discharge as well as 4- and 12-mo and 6.5-year follow-up information for survival status were fulfilled for all patients. Long-term 6.5-year overall and opium-stratified survival, adjusted survival curves based on opium consumption as well as possible predictors of all-cause mortality using multiple cox regression were determined by statistical analysis. RESULTS Six point five-year overall survival was 91.8%; 86.6% in opium consumers and 92.7% in non-opium consumers (P = 0.035). Patients with positive history of opium consumption significantly tended to have lower ejection fraction (EF), higher creatinine level and higher prevalence of myocardial infarction. Multiple predictors of all-cause mortality included age, body mass index, EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. The hazard ratio (HR) of 2.09 for the risk of mortality in opium addicted patients with a borderline P value (P = 0.052) was calculated in this model. Further adjustment with stratification based on smoking and opium addiction reduced the HR to 1.20 (P = 0.355). CONCLUSION Simultaneous impact of smoking as a confounding variable in most of the patients prevents from definitive judgment on the role of opium as an independent contributing factor in worse long-term survival of CABG patients in addition to advanced age, low EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. Meanwhile, our findings do not confirm any cardio protective role for opium to improve outcome in coronary patients with the history of smoking. Further studies are needed to clarify pure effect of opium and warrant the aforementioned findings. PMID:27957254

Risk factors for fecal colonization with multiple distinct strains of Escherichia coli among long-term care facility residents.

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Lautenbach, Ebbing; Tolomeo, Pam; Black, Nicole; Maslow, Joel N

2009-05-01

Of 49 long-term care facility residents, 21 (43%) were colonized with 2 or more distinct strains of Escherichia coli. There were no significant risk factors for colonization with multiple strains of E. coli. These results suggest that future efforts to efficiently identify the diversity of colonizing strains will be challenging.

Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Korinko M.D.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

Couverture dynamique optimale du risque de change de long terme pour une entreprise

OpenAIRE

Wojakowski, Rafal

1997-01-01

Chapter 1 : Optimal dynamic level risk hedging for a corporation. An optimal hedging of the exchange rate risk for a firm is considered. The concept of the long term exchange rate risk is defined by opposition to the classic exchange rate risk. The optimal hedge of the intertemporal long term exchange rate risk is derived by the method of stochastic optimal control, in a model where the exchange rate follows a Gaussian process with return to the level of parity. It is demonstrated that such a...

Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence: cut-off points for the Work Ability Index

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schouten, L.S.; Joling, C.I.; van der Gulden, J.W.J.; Heymans, M.W.; Bultmann, U.; Roelen, C.A.M.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the Work Ability Index (WAI) as a tool to screen for risk of different durations of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) among manual and office workers.

The long-term psychiatric and medical prognosis of perinatal mental illness.

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzer-Brody, Samantha; Stuebe, Alison

2014-01-01

The perinatal period provides an important window into a woman's long-term health. Perinatal mental illness is a common condition conferring potential serious long-term psychiatric and medical consequences for the mother and family. It is known that childbirth acts as a powerful trigger for depressive episodes in some women, and that women with histories of a mood disorder are particularly vulnerable. Some evidence links perinatal mental illness with obstetrical complications and reduced lactation initiation and duration. Therefore, perinatal mental illness may be a marker for long-term risk, and may contribute directly to subsequent cardiometabolic disease through both neuroendocrine mechanisms and the effects of mental illness on health behaviours. In clinical practice, these associations underscore the importance of screening and treating women with perinatal mental illness to ensure best possible long-term outcomes. Early screening and treatment may both mitigate the primary disease process and reduce the risk of comorbid medical conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the benefits of achieving or maintaining long-term low risk profile for cardiovascular disease: The Doetinchem Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hulsegge, Gerben; Smit, Henriëtte A; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Daviglus, Martha L; Verschuren, W M Monique

2015-10-01

Studies investigating the relation between risk profiles and cardiovascular disease have measured risk at baseline only. We investigated maintenance and changes of risk profiles over time and their potential impact on incident cardiovascular disease. Population-based cohort study. Risk factors were measured at baseline (1987-1991) among 5574 cardiovascular disease-free adults aged 20-59 years. They were classified into four risk categories according to smoking status, presence of diabetes and widely accepted cut-off values for blood pressure, total cholesterol/HDL-ratio and body mass index. Categories were subdivided (maintenance, deterioration, improvement) based on risk factor levels at six and 11 years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cardiovascular disease incidence 5-10 years following the risk-change period were fitted using Cox proportional hazards models. Only 12% of participants were low risk at baseline, and only 7% maintained it. Participants who maintained a low risk profile over 11 years had seven times lower risk of cardiovascular disease (HR: 0.14, 95% CI: 0.05-0.41) than participants with long-term high risk profile, whereas those low risk at baseline whose profile deteriorated had three times lower risk (HR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.71). Our results suggest that, within each baseline risk profile group, compared with a stable profile, improving profiles may be associated with up to two-fold lower HRs, and deteriorating profiles with about two-fold higher HRs. Our study, using long-term risk profiles, demonstrates the full benefits of low risk profile. These findings underscore the importance of achieving and maintaining low risk from young adulthood onwards. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Long-term and baseline recreational physical activity and risk of endometrial cancer: the California Teachers Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dieli-Conwright, C M; Ma, H; Lacey, J V; Henderson, K D; Neuhausen, S; Horn-Ross, P L; Deapen, D; Sullivan-Halley, J; Bernstein, L

2013-08-06

Physical activity may be associated with decreasing endometrial cancer risk; it remains unclear whether the association is modified by body size. Among 93 888 eligible California Teachers Study participants, 976 were diagnosed with incident endometrial cancer between 1995-1996 and 2007. Cox proportional hazards regression methods were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for endometrial cancer associated with long-term (high school through age 54 years) and baseline (3 years prior to joining the cohort) strenuous and moderate recreational physical activity, overall and by body size. Increased baseline strenuous recreational physical activity was associated with decreased endometrial cancer risk (Ptrend=0.006) with approximately 25% lower risk among women exercising >3 h per week per year than among those exercising activity was associated with lower risk among overweight/obese women. Increasing physical activity, particularly strenuous activity, may be a lifestyle change that overweight and obese women can implement to reduce their endometrial cancer risk.

Multilevel analysis of workplace and individual risk factors for long-term sickness absence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Labriola, Merete; Christensen, Karl B; Lund, Thomas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine if psychosocial and physical work-environment factors predict long-term sickness absence (>8 weeks) at both the individual and the workplace level. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were collected in a prospective study in 52 Danish workplaces....... Psychosocial factors were aggregated as workplace means. We used multilevel logistic regression models with psychosocial factors as predictors of long-term sickness absence over 5 years based on data from a national absence register. RESULTS: Long-term sickness absence was predicted by physical work...

Long-term glucocorticoid concentrations as a risk factor for childhood obesity and adverse body-fat distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Noppe, G; van den Akker, E L T; de Rijke, Y B; Koper, J W; Jaddoe, V W; van Rossum, E F C

2016-10-01

Childhood obesity is an important risk factor for premature development of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) at adulthood. There is need for understanding of the mechanisms underlying the MetS and obesity. Patients with Cushing's disease suffer from similar metabolic complications, leading to the hypothesis that inter-individual cortisol variation may contribute to the onset of obesity. In addition, glucocorticoid receptor (GR)-gene polymorphisms resulting in differential glucocorticoid (GC) sensitivity, have been associated with an adverse metabolic profile. To study associations of GC levels in scalp hair, as a marker of long-term systemic GC concentrations, and genetically determined GC sensitivity with obesity and body-fat distribution in children. We performed a cross-sectional study of cortisol and cortisone concentrations over a 3-month period, measured by LC-MS/MS (Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry) in hair of 3019 6-year-old children participating in the Generation R study. Genotyping of GR-gene polymorphisms was performed. Of all children, 4.3% was obese and 13.4% overweight. Cortisol was significantly associated with risk of obesity (odd ratio (OR): 9.4 (3.3-26.9)) and overweight (OR: 1.4 (1.0-2.0)). Cortisone was associated with risk of obesity (OR: 1.9 (1.0-3.5)). Cortisol and cortisone were significantly positively associated with body mass index, fat mass (FM) index and android/gynecoid FM ratio. GR polymorphisms were not associated with adiposity parameters. Long-term cortisol concentrations are strongly associated with an increased risk of childhood obesity and adverse body-fat distribution. Future research may reveal whether these are causal relations and may be a target for therapy.

Long term radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavie, J.M.

1984-01-01

In France, waste management, a sensitive issue in term of public opinion, is developing quickly, and due to twenty years of experience, is now reaching maturity. With the launching of the French nuclear programme, the use of radioactive sources in radiotherapy and industry, waste management has become an industrial activity. Waste management is an integrated system dealing with the wastes from their production to the long term disposal, including their identification, sortage, treatment, packaging, collection and transport. This system aims at guaranteing the protection of present and future populations with an available technology. In regard to their long term management, and the design of disposals, radioactive wastes are divided in three categories. This classification takes into account the different radioisotopes contained, their half life and their total activity. Presently short-lived wastes are stored in the shallowland disposal of the ''Centre de la Manche''. Set up within the French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), the National Agency for waste management (ANDRA) is responsible within the framework of legislative and regulatory provisions for long term waste management in France [fr

Preeclampsia; short and long-term consequences for mother and neonate.

Science.gov (United States)

Bokslag, Anouk; van Weissenbruch, Mirjam; Mol, Ben Willem; de Groot, Christianne J M

2016-11-01

Preeclampsia is a common pregnancy specific disease, that presents with hypertension and a variety of organ failures, including malfunction of kidneys, liver and lungs. At present, the only definitive treatment of preeclampsia is end the pregnancy and deliver the neonate and placenta. For women with mild preeclampsia in the preterm phase of pregnancy, expectant management is generally indicated to improve fetal maturity, often requiring maternal medical treatment. Last decades, more evidence is available that the underlying mechanism of preeclampsia, endothelial disease, is not limited to pregnancy but increases cardiovascular risk in later life. In this review, we present the most recent insight in preeclampsia with focus on impact on the fetus, short and long-term outcome of offspring's, and long-term outcome of women with a history of preeclampsia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of risk for falls and its frequency among patients in a long term care institution

OpenAIRE

Varnelo, Ilona

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Vilnius University Faculty of Medicine Department of Nursing and Fundamentals of Internal Medicine Bachelor of Nursing Program Assessment of Risk for Falls and its Frequency Among Patients in a Long Term Care Institution Nursing Bachelor's thesis The Author: student Ilona Varnelo, nursing bachelor program at Vilnius University. Work Leader: assistant Viktorija Kielaitė, Vilnius University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Nursing and Fundamentals of Internal Medicine 16 – 05 – 2016,...

Joint association of multimorbidity and work ability with risk of long-term sickness absence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundstrup, Emil; Due Jakobsen, Markus; Mortensen, Ole Steen

2017-01-01

with LTSA appears to be additive. Conclusions: Poor work ability combined with ≥1 chronic diseases is associated with high risk of long-term sickness absence in the general working population. Initiatives to improve or maintain work ability should be highly prioritized to secure sustainable employability......, disability pension, immigration, or death) was performed to estimate the joint association of chronic diseases and work ability in relation to physical and mental demands of the job with the prospective risk for LTSA (defined as ≥6 consecutive weeks during 2-year follow-up) among 10 427 wage earners from...... the general working population (2010 Danish Work Environment Cohort Study). Control variables were age, gender, psychosocial work environment, smoking, leisure physical activity, body mass index, job group, and previous LTSA. Results: Of the 10 427 respondents, 56.8% had experienced ≥1 chronic disease...

Risks of nuclear waste disposal in space. III - Long-term orbital evolution of small particle distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlander, A. L.; Wells, W. C.

1980-01-01

A study of long term risks is presented that treats an additional pathway that could result in earth reentry, namely, small radioactive particles released in solar orbit due to payload fragmentation by accidental explosion or meteoroid impact. A characterization of such an event and of the initial mass size distribution of particles is given for two extremes of waste form strength. Attention is given to numerical results showing the mass-time distribution of material and the fraction of initial mass intercepted by earth. It is concluded that it appears that program planners need not be to concerned about the risks of this particular failure mechanism and return pathway.

Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi

2004-01-01

Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders Of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long- term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries. (author)

Long-term follow-up study and long-term care of childhood cancer survivors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyeon Jin Park

2010-04-01

Full Text Available The number of long-term survivors is increasing in the western countries due to remarkable improvements in the treatment of childhood cancer. The long-term complications of childhood cancer survivors in these countries were brought to light by the childhood cancer survivor studies. In Korea, the 5-year survival rate of childhood cancer patients is approaching 70%; therefore, it is extremely important to undertake similar long-term follow-up studies and comprehensive long-term care for our population. On the basis of the experiences of childhood cancer survivorship care of the western countries and the current Korean status of childhood cancer survivors, long-term follow-up study and long-term care systems need to be established in Korea in the near future. This system might contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of childhood cancer survivors through effective intervention strategies.

Home or foster home care versus institutional long-term care for functionally dependent older people.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Camilla; Hall, Amanda M; Gonçalves-Bradley, Daniela C; Quinn, Terry J; Hooft, Lotty; van Munster, Barbara C; Stott, David J

2017-04-03

Changing population demographics have led to an increasing number of functionally dependent older people who require care and medical treatment. In many countries, government policy aims to shift resources into the community from institutional care settings with the expectation that this will reduce costs and improve the quality of care compared. To assess the effects of long-term home or foster home care versus institutional care for functionally dependent older people. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) via the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and two trials registers to November 2015. We included randomised and non-randomised trials, controlled before-after studies and interrupted time series studies complying with the EPOC study design criteria and comparing the effects of long-term home care versus institutional care for functionally dependent older people. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of each included study. We reported the results narratively, as the substantial heterogeneity across studies meant that meta-analysis was not appropriate. We included 10 studies involving 16,377 participants, all of which were conducted in high income countries. Included studies compared community-based care with institutional care (care homes). The sample size ranged from 98 to 11,803 (median N = 204). There was substantial heterogeneity in the healthcare context, interventions studied, and outcomes assessed. One study was a randomised trial (N = 112); other included studies used designs that had potential for bias, particularly due lack of randomisation, baseline imbalances, and non-blinded outcome assessment. Most studies did not select (or exclude) participants for any specific disease state, with the exception of one study that only included patients if they had a stroke. All studies had methodological limitations, so readers should interpret results with caution.It is uncertain

Pros and Cons of Long-Term use of Nicotine Replacement Therapies: A Qualitative Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borup, Gitte; Kaae, Susanne; Nørgaard, Lotte Stig

2016-01-01

, intrapersonal processes, the social environment of smoking vs. NRTs and finances. None of the ex-smokers feared to relapse to smoking, and few were motivated to quit NRTs. Non-nicotinic factors were found to have an important role in developing an addiction to NRTs. The use of NRTs yields some of the expected......, including perceived pros and cons of using NRTs, the risk of relapse to smoking and their motivation to quit using NRTs. The results identified five major themes that entailed pros and cons of the long-term use of NRTs. These were the non-nicotinic factors of NRTs, health risks of NRTs vs. smoking......In the last decade, harm reduction has been increasingly suggested as a method to reduce the harm caused by smoking in smokers who are unable or unwilling to quit all nicotine products. One of these methods includes long-term substitution of tobacco with nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs...

The long-term risk of recognized and unrecognized myocardial infarction for depression in older men.

Science.gov (United States)

Jovanova, O; Luik, A I; Leening, M J G; Noordam, R; Aarts, N; Hofman, A; Franco, O H; Dehghan, A; Tiemeier, H

2016-07-01

The association between myocardial infarction (MI) and depression is well described. Yet, the underlying mechanisms are unclear and the contribution of psychological factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine the risk of recognized (RMI) and unrecognized (UMI) myocardial infections on depression, as both have a similar impact on cardiovascular health but differ in psychological epiphenomena. Participants of the Rotterdam Study, 1823 men aged ⩾55 years, were followed for the occurrence of depression. RMI and UMI were ascertained using electrocardiography and medical history at baseline. We determined the strength of the association of RMI and UMI with mortality, and we studied the relationship of RMI and UMI with depressive symptoms and the occurrence of major depression. The risk of mortality was similar in men with RMI [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45-2.03] and UMI (aHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.27-1.97). Men with RMI had on average [unstandardized regression coefficient (B) 1.14, 95% CI 0.07-2.21] higher scores for depressive symptoms. By contrast, we found no clear association between UMI and depressive symptoms (B 0.55, 95% CI -0.51 to 1.62) in men. Analysis including occurrence of major depression as the outcome were consistent with the pattern of association. The discrepant association of RMI and UMI with mortality compared to depression suggests that the psychological burden of having experienced an MI contributes to the long-term risk of depression.

Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia: Chronic Lung Disease of Infancy and Long-Term Pulmonary Outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauren M. Davidson

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD is a chronic lung disease most commonly seen in premature infants who required mechanical ventilation and oxygen therapy for acute respiratory distress. While advances in neonatal care have resulted in improved survival rates of premature infants, limited progress has been made in reducing rates of BPD. Lack of progress may in part be attributed to the limited therapeutic options available for prevention and treatment of BPD. Several lung-protective strategies have been shown to reduce risks, including use of non-invasive support, as well as early extubation and volume ventilation when intubation is required. These approaches, along with optimal nutrition and medical therapy, decrease risk of BPD; however, impacts on long-term outcomes are poorly defined. Characterization of late outcomes remain a challenge as rapid advances in medical management result in current adult BPD survivors representing outdated neonatal care. While pulmonary disease improves with growth, long-term follow-up studies raise concerns for persistent pulmonary dysfunction; asthma-like symptoms and exercise intolerance in young adults after BPD. Abnormal ventilatory responses and pulmonary hypertension can further complicate disease. These pulmonary morbidities, combined with environmental and infectious exposures, may result in significant long-term pulmonary sequalae and represent a growing burden on health systems. Additional longitudinal studies are needed to determine outcomes beyond the second decade, and define risk factors and optimal treatment for late sequalae of disease.

Long term wet spent nuclear fuel storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-04-01

The meeting showed that there is continuing confidence in the use of wet storage for spent nuclear fuel and that long-term wet storage of fuel clad in zirconium alloys can be readily achieved. The importance of maintaining good water chemistry has been identified. The long-term wet storage behaviour of sensitized stainless steel clad fuel involves, as yet, some uncertainties. However, great reliance will be placed on long-term wet storage of spent fuel into the future. The following topics were treated to some extent: Oxidation of the external surface of fuel clad, rod consolidation, radiation protection, optimum methods of treating spent fuel storage water, physical radiation effects, and the behaviour of spent fuel assemblies of long-term wet storage conditions. A number of papers on national experience are included

Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality and Amputation after Open and Endovascular Treatment of Acute Limb Ischemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Genovese, Elizabeth A; Chaer, Rabih A; Taha, Ashraf G; Marone, Luke K; Avgerinos, Efthymios; Makaroun, Michel S; Baril, Donald T

2016-01-01

Acute limb ischemia (ALI) is a highly morbid and fatal vascular emergency with little known about contemporary, long-term patient outcomes. The goal was to determine predictors of long-term mortality and amputation after open and endovascular treatment of ALI. A retrospective review of ALI patients at a single institution from 2005 to 2011 was performed to determine the impact of revascularization technique on 5-year mortality and amputation. For each main outcome 2 multivariable models were developed; the first adjusted for preoperative clinical presentation and procedure type, the second also adjusted for postoperative adverse events (AEs). A total of 445 limbs in 411 patients were treated for ALI. Interventions included surgical thrombectomy (48%), emergent bypass (18%), and endovascular revascularization (34%). Mean age was 68 ± 15 years, 54% were male, and 23% had cancer. Most patients presented with Rutherford classification IIa (54%) or IIb (39%). The etiology of ALI included embolism (27%), in situ thrombosis (28%), thrombosed bypass grafts (32%), and thrombosed stents (13%). Patients treated with open procedures had significantly more advanced ischemia and higher rates of postoperative respiratory failure, whereas patients undergoing endovascular interventions had higher rates of technical failure. Rates of postprocedural bleeding and cardiac events were similar between both treatments. Excluding Rutherford class III patients (n = 12), overall 5-year mortality was 54% (stratified by treatment, 65% for thrombectomy, 63% for bypass, and 36% for endovascular, P < 0.001); 5-year amputation was 28% (stratified by treatment, 18% for thrombectomy, 27% for bypass, and 17% for endovascular, P = 0.042). Adjusting for comorbidities, patient presentation, AEs, and treatment method, the risk of mortality increased with age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, P < 0.001), female gender (HR = 1.50, P = 0.031), cancer (HR = 2.19, P < 0.001), fasciotomy (HR = 1.69, P = 0.204) in

Long-Term Effects of Ambient PM2.5 on Hypertension and Blood Pressure and Attributable Risk Among Older Chinese Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Hualiang; Guo, Yanfei; Zheng, Yang; Di, Qian; Liu, Tao; Xiao, Jianpeng; Li, Xing; Zeng, Weilin; Cummings-Vaughn, Lenise A; Howard, Steven W; Vaughn, Michael G; Qian, Zhengmin Min; Ma, Wenjun; Wu, Fan

2017-05-01

Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate pollution (PM 2.5 ) has been associated with cardiovascular diseases. Hypertension, a major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, has also been hypothesized to be linked to PM 2.5 However, epidemiological evidence has been mixed. We examined long-term association between ambient PM 2.5 and hypertension and blood pressure. We interviewed 12 665 participants aged 50 years and older and measured their blood pressures. Annual average PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated for each community using satellite data. We applied 2-level logistic regression models to examine the associations and estimated hypertension burden attributable to ambient PM 2.5 For each 10 μg/m 3 increase in ambient PM 2.5 , the adjusted odds ratio of hypertension was 1.14 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.22). Stratified analyses found that overweight and obesity could enhance the association, and consumption of fruit was associated with lower risk. We further estimated that 11.75% (95% confidence interval, 5.82%-18.53%) of the hypertension cases (corresponding to 914, 95% confidence interval, 453-1442 cases) could be attributable to ambient PM 2.5 in the study population. Findings suggest that long-term exposure to ambient PM 2.5 might be an important risk factor of hypertension and is responsible for significant hypertension burden in adults in China. A higher consumption of fruit may mitigate, whereas overweight and obesity could enhance this effect. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Long-term selenium status in humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baskett, C.K.; Spate, V.L.; Mason, M.M.; Nichols, T.A.; Williams, A.; Dubman, I.M.; Gudino, A.; Denison, J.; Morris, J.S.

2001-01-01

The association of sub-optimal selenium status with increased risk factors for some cancers has been reported in two recent epidemiological studies. In both studies the same threshold in selenium status was observed, below which, cancer incidence increased. To assess the use of nails as a biologic monitor to measure the long-term selenium status, an eight-year longitudinal study was undertaken with a group of 11 adult subjects, 5 women and 6 men. Selenium has been measured by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Differences between fingernails and toenails with be discussed. In addition, the results will be discussed in the context of the long-term stability of the nail monitor to measure selenium status during those periods when selenium determinants are static; and the changes that occur as a result of selenium supplementation. (author)

Prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in people with long-term spinal cord injury living in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adriaansen, Jacinthe J E; Douma-Haan, Yvonne; van Asbeck, Floris W A; van Koppenhagen, Casper F; de Groot, Sonja; Smit, Christof A; Visser-Meily, Johanna M A; Post, Marcel W M

PURPOSE: To describe the prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in people with long-term spinal cord injury (SCI) and to compare the prevalence of high blood pressure and/or the use of antihypertensive drugs with the prevalence in the Dutch general population. METHOD: Multicentre

Taking into account the long term dimension associated with radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schieber, C.; Schneider, T.; Lavelle, S.

2008-01-01

Radioactive waste introduces a new time dimension in the field of risk management. This is why, for more than 10 years, there have been reflections on the societal and organisational mechanisms allowing a responsible management over the long term of the risk associated with radioactive waste. These reflections lead one to ask questions regarding interactions between what is at stake for societal and radiation protection criteria, demanding a multidisciplinary approach to the problem. Within the framework of the European project C.O.W.A.M. 2, dedicated to the improvement of governance of radioactive waste management in Europe, a working group involving experts, authorities, waste managers, locally elected representatives and N.G.O.s, discussed the stakes associated with the long term dimension. This article presents the main results of this working group, organised around four themes: meaning of the long term and what is at stake, the ethical dimension regarding long term issues, continuity and sustainability of the surveillance and control of radioactive waste facilities, effectiveness of financing schemes for the long term management of radioactive waste. (authors)

Radiobiology in clinical radiation therapy - Part IV: Long term risks - Carcinogenic, hereditary, and teratogenetic effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenner, David J.

1996-01-01

The long-term risks induced by radiation are of much concern to patients and clinicians alike. As an example, perceived radiation risks are frequently cited in a woman's decision to choose a radical mastectomy over lumpectomy + radiation. In consequence, the actual radiation risks are often considerably overstated, or unreasonably downplayed. In this lecture we will discuss just what is known about the long term risks following radiotherapy, both from the human experience and from the laboratory. We will discuss risks both to the patient and to radiotherapy personnel. A good deal is known about the carcinogenic effects of high and low doses of radiation, in large part thanks to the careful study of the survivors of the atomic bombing in Japan, as well as studies of individuals exposed to medical x rays. It is possible to make an estimate, which is probably good to within a factor of, perhaps, three to five, of the cancer risks faced by a patient of a particular age and sex who is going to undergo a particular radiotherapeutic regimen. It is also possible to make an estimate of the risks faced by radiotherapy and nursing staff exposed to low doses. Brachytherapy related risk estimates are likely to be somewhat more uncertain, due to the poorly known sparing effects of the low dose rates used; for the radiotherapy personnel in brachytherapy, because of the doses which can be received, the risks can be quite significant. A recent complication in external-beam radiotherapy is the advent of high-energy linacs, which can produce a significant fast neutron dose which, dose for dose, may be ten to fifty times more carcinogenic than gamma rays. Data relating to the risks of hereditary effects of radiation come almost entirely from laboratory experiments in animals. Studies involving several million mice form the basis of most of our current understanding of hereditary effects. The results of these studies indicate that radiation is a relatively inefficient mutagen. The

Predicting Discharge to Institutional Long-Term Care After Stroke: A Systematic Review and Metaanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, Jennifer K; Ferguson, Eilidh E C; Barugh, Amanda J; Walesby, Katherine E; MacLullich, Alasdair M J; Shenkin, Susan D; Quinn, Terry J

2018-01-01

Stroke is a leading cause of disability worldwide, and a significant proportion of stroke survivors require long-term institutional care. Understanding who cannot be discharged home is important for health and social care planning. Our aim was to establish predictive factors for discharge to institutional care after hospitalization for stroke. We registered and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42015023497) of observational studies. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL Plus to February 2017. Quantitative synthesis was performed where data allowed. Acute and rehabilitation hospitals. Adults hospitalized for stroke who were newly admitted directly to long-term institutional care at the time of hospital discharge. Factors associated with new institutionalization. From 10,420 records, we included 18 studies (n = 32,139 participants). The studies were heterogeneous and conducted in Europe, North America, and East Asia. Eight studies were at high risk of selection bias. The proportion of those surviving to discharge who were newly discharged to long-term care varied from 7% to 39% (median 17%, interquartile range 12%), and the model of care received in the long-term care setting was not defined. Older age and greater stroke severity had a consistently positive association with the need for long-term care admission. Individuals who had a severe stroke were 26 times as likely to be admitted to long-term care than those who had a minor stroke. Individuals aged 65 and older had a risk of stroke that was three times as great as that of younger individuals. Potentially modifiable factors were rarely examined. Age and stroke severity are important predictors of institutional long-term care admission directly from the hospital after an acute stroke. Potentially modifiable factors should be the target of future research. Stroke outcome studies should report discharge destination, defining the model of care provided in the long-term care setting. �

A new image for long-term care.

Science.gov (United States)

Wager, Richard; Creelman, William

2004-04-01

To counter widely held negative images of long-term care, managers in the industry should implement quality-improvement initiatives that include six key strategies: Manage the expectations of residents and their families. Address customers' concerns early. Build long-term customer satisfaction. Allocate resources to achieve exceptional outcomes in key areas. Respond to adverse events with compassion. Reinforce the facility's credibility.

Short-term hypertension management in community is associated with long-term risk of stroke and total death in China: A community controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zengwu; Hao, Guang; Wang, Xin; Wang, Wen; Chen, Weiwei; Zhu, Manlu

2016-11-01

It is not fully clear whether the effect of short-term management in community can reduce the long-term risk of stroke OBJECTIVES:: To evaluate whether short-term hypertension management is associated with long-term incidence of stroke and total death in community health centers in China. Community controlled trail. Six community health centers (4 active, 2 control) in China, patients with hypertension. Patients were treated with normally therapy method. Patients were treated oriented by the Guideline for hypertension management. Two centers (Hebei and Zhejiang) from the Hypertension Control in Community (HCC) Project, which was conducted from 2005 to 2008, were randomly selected for this study. Four thousand hypertensive patients from these centers, who were under management for one year in the baseline, were followed up in 2013. The electronic health record system (2005-2008) was used to identify 2000 hypertensive patients, who were not included in HCC but lived in comparable community health center in the same province, as the control group. All baseline and follow-up data were collected using standardized questionnaires for stroke outcomes. Stroke. Of the 6000 participants, 3787 (63.1%) were eligible for analysis. At the time of follow-up, the average BP was kept in the lower level than that in baseline, and the control rate was 59.3%. After propensity-score matching, 110 strokes (2.0% vs 4.6%) and 141 deaths (1.4% vs 3.8%) were noted in the matched intervention and control groups (1078 pairs), respectively. Patients in the intervention group were less likely to experience a stroke or die than those in the control group (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.26-0.62, P stroke in hypertensive patients.

The cost of long-term follow-up of high-risk infants for research studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, Lex W; Clucas, Luisa; Roberts, Gehan; Davis, Noni; Duff, Julianne; Callanan, Catherine; McDonald, Marion; Anderson, Peter J; Cheong, Jeanie L Y

2015-10-01

Neonatal intensive care is expensive, and thus it is essential that its long-term outcomes are measured. The costs of follow-up studies for high-risk children who survive are unknown. This study aims to determine current costs for the assessment of health and development of children followed up in our research programme. Costs were determined for children involved in the research follow-up programme at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne, over the 6-month period between 1st January 2012 and 30th June 2012. The time required for health professionals involved in assessments in early and later childhood was estimated, and converted into dollar costs. Costs for equipment and data management were added. Estimated costs were compared with actual costs of running the research follow-up programme. A total of 134 children were assessed over the 6-month period. The estimated average cost per child assessed was $1184, much higher than was expected. The estimated cost to assess a toddler was $1149, whereas for an 11-year-old it was $1443, the difference attributable to the longer psychological and paediatric assessments. The actual average cost per child assessed was $1623. The shortfall of $439 between the actual and estimated average costs per child arose chiefly because of the need to pay staff even when participants were late or failed to attend. The average costs of assessing children at each age for research studies are much higher than expected. These data are useful for planning similar long-term follow-up assessments for high-risk children. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2015 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Joint association of sleep problems and psychosocial working conditions with registered long-term sickness absence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Ida E. H.; Larsen, Ann D.; Thorsen, Sannie V.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Sleep problems and adverse psychosocial working conditions are associated with increased risk of long-term sickness absence. Because sleep problems affect role functioning they may also exacerbate any effects of psychosocial working conditions and vice versa. We examined whether sleep...... problems and psychosocial working conditions interact in their associations with long-term sickness absence. Methods: We linked questionnaire data from participants to two surveys of random samples of the Danish working population (N=10 752) with registries on long-term sick leave during five years after...... questionnaire response. We defined sleep problems by self-reported symptoms and/or register data on hypnotics purchases of hypnotics. Psychosocial working conditions included quantitative and emotional demands, influence, supervisor recognition and social support, leadership quality, and social support from...

Agitation during prolonged mechanical ventilation at a long-term acute care hospital: risk factors, treatments, and outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Heidi; Al-Qadheeb, Nada S; White, Alexander C; Thaker, Vishal; Devlin, John W

2014-01-01

The prevalence, risk factors, treatment practices, and outcomes of agitation in patients undergoing prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) in the long-term acute care hospital (LTACH) setting are not well understood. We compared agitation risk factors, management strategies, and outcomes between patients who developed agitation and those who did not, in LTACH patients undergoing PMV. Patients admitted to an LTACH for PMV over a 1-year period were categorized into agitated and nonagitated groups. The presence of agitation risk factors, management strategies, and relevant outcomes were extracted and compared between the 2 groups. A total of 80 patients were included, 41% (33) with agitation and 59% (47) without. Compared to the nonagitated group, the agitated group had a lower Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (P agitated group, use of benzodiazepines (P = .16), opioids (P = .11), or psychiatric evaluation (P = .90) was not. Weaning success, duration of LTACH stay, and daily costs were similar. Agitation among the LTACH patients undergoing PMV is associated with greater delirium and use of antipsychotics and restraints but does not influence weaning success or LTACH stay. Strategies focused on agitation prevention and treatment in this population need to be developed and formally evaluated. © The Author(s) 2013.

Prevalence and long-term clinical significance of intracranial atherosclerosis after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ovesen, Christian; Abild, Annemette; Christensen, Anders Fogh

2013-01-01

We investigated the prevalence and long-term risk associated with intracranial atherosclerosis identified during routine evaluation.......We investigated the prevalence and long-term risk associated with intracranial atherosclerosis identified during routine evaluation....

Actinide partitioning-transmutation program final report. VII. Long-term risk analysis of the geologic repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Logan, S.E.; Conarty, R.L.; Ng, H.S.; Rahal, L.J.; Shirley, C.G.

1980-09-01

This report supports the overall assessment by Oak Ridge National Laboratory of actinide partitioning and transmutation by providing an analysis of the long-term risks associated with the terminal storage of wastes from a fuel cycle which incorporates partitioning and transmutation (P-T) and wastes from a cycle which does not. The system model and associated computer code, called AMRAW (Assessment Method for Radioactive Waste), are used for the analysis and are applied to the Los Medanos area in southeastern New Mexico. Because a conservative approach is used throughout, calculated results are believed to be consistently higher than reasonable expectations from actual disruptive incidents at the site and therefore are not directly suited for comparison with other analyses of the particular geologic location. The assessment is made with (1) the probabilistic, or risk, mode that uses combinations of reasonable possible release incidents with their probability of occurrence distributed and applied throughout the assessment period, and (2) the consequence mode that forces discrete release events to occur at specific times. An assessment period of 1 million years is used. The principal results are: (1) In all but the expulsive modes, 99 Tc and 129 I completely dominate cumulative effects based on their transport to man through leaching and movement with groundwater, effecting about 33,000 health effects (deaths) over the 1 million years; (2) P-T has only limited effectiveness in reducing long-term risk from a radionuclide waste repository under the conditions studied, and such effectiveness is essentially confined to the extremely unlikely (probability of occurrence 10 -12 /year) expulsive events; (3) Removal or immobilization of 99 Tc and 129 I might provide benefits sufficiently tangible to warrant special consideration

Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Pawar, R.

2016-12-01

Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management

Truck Drivers And Risk Of STDs Including HIV

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bansal R.K

1995-01-01

Full Text Available Research Question: Whether long distance truck drivers are at a higher risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV? Objectives: i To study the degree of knowledge of HIV and AIDS among long- distance truck drivers. ii Assess their sexual behaviour including condom use. iii Explore their prevailing social influences and substance abuse patterns. iv Explore their treatment seeking bahaviour as regards STDs. v Deduce their risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV. Study Design: Cross- sectional interview. Setting: Transport Nagar, Indore (M.P Participants: 210 senior drivers (First drivers and 210 junior drivers (Second drivers. Study Variables: Extra-Marital sexual intercourse, condom usage, past and present history of STDs, treatment and counseling, substance abuse, social â€" cultural milieu. Outcome Variables: Risk of contraction of STDs. Statistical Analysis: Univariate analysis. Results: 94% of the drivers were totally ignorant about AIDS. 82.9% and 43.8 % of the senior and junior drivers had a history of extra- marital sex and of these only 2 regularly used condoms. 13.8% and 3.3 % of the senior and junior drivers had a past or present history suggestive of STD infection. Alcohol and Opium were regularly used by them. Conclusion: The studied drivers are at a high risk of contracting and transmitting STDs including HIV.

Understanding the Risk Factors and Long-Term Consequences of Cisplatin-Associated Acute Kidney Injury: An Observational Cohort Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zeenat Yousuf Bhat

Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a well-known complication of cisplatin-based chemotherapy; however, its impact on long-term patient survival is unclear. We sought to determine the incidence and risk factors for development of cisplatin-associated AKI and its impact on long-term renal function and patient survival. We identified 233 patients who received 629 cycles of high-dose cisplatin (99±9mg/m2 for treatment of head and neck cancer between 2005 and 2011. These subjects were reviewed for development of AKI. Cisplatin nephrotoxicity (CN was defined as persistent rise in serum creatinine, with a concomitant decline in serum magnesium and potassium, in absence of use of nephrotoxic agents and not reversed with hydration. All patients were hydrated per protocol and none had baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR via CKD-EPI<60mL/min/1.73m2. The patients were grouped based on development of AKI and were staged for levels of injury, per KDIGO-AKI definition. Renal function was assessed via serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR via CKD-EPI at baseline, 6- and 12-months. Patients with AKI were screened for the absence of nephrotoxic medication use and a temporal decline in serum potassium and magnesium levels. Logistic regression models were constructed to determine risk factors for cisplatin-associated AKI. Twelve-month renal function was compared among groups using ANOVA. Kaplan-Maier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to study its impact on patient survival. Of 233 patients, 158(68% developed AKI; 77 (49% developed stage I, 55 (35% developed stage II, and 26 (16% developed stage III AKI. Their serum potassium and magnesium levels correlated negatively with level of injury (p<0.05. African American race was a significant risk factor for cisplatin-associated AKI, OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.3 to 6.3 and 2.8 (95% CI 1.2 to 6.7 patients with stage III AKI had the lowest eGFR value at 12 months (p = 0.05 and long-term

Long-term prognostic value of transesophageal atrial pacing stress echocardiography.

Science.gov (United States)

Płońska, Edyta; Kasprzak, Jarosław D; Kornacewicz-Jach, Zdzisława

2005-07-01

The aim of our study was to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of transesophageal atrial pacing stress echocardiography (TAPSE) for the prediction of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction) and mortality at 10-year follow-up. TAPSE was applied as a diagnostic modality in 93 consecutive patients (mean age 45 +/- 8 years) who were diagnosed for the cause of chest pain. Long-term follow-up data were obtained from 87 (94%) patients with a mean duration of follow-up of 92 +/- 4 months. Stress echocardiography was performed using TAPSE with a mean pacing rate of 142 +/- 18/min. Predefined cardiac events occurred during the follow-up period in 45 (52%) patients, including 24 (28%) with hard end points: 10 (12%) with nonfatal myocardial infarction and 17 who died (events overlap). Positive result of TAPSE was found in 47 (54%) patients and among those with positive TAPSE result, 16 died (94% of total mortality) and 21 had a hard event (death or infarction-88% of total prevalence). Survival free from hard events was noted in 37 (92%) patients with negative TAPSE and only in 26 (55%) of those with positive TAPSE ( P = .001). Independent predictive factors for mortality were TAPSE positivity (relative risk with 95% confidence interval [RR/CI] = 39.6 [36.3-42.9], P = .0006) and diabetes (RR/CI = 10.2 [8.6-11.8], P = .0026). Independent predictive factors for myocardial infarction were diabetes (RR/CI = 8.1 [6.3-9.9], P = .0186) and significant coronary stenosis in angiography (RR/CI = 9.0 [6.8-11.2], P = .0479). Independent predictive factors for death or nonfatal myocardial infarction were TAPSE positivity (RR/CI = 12.3 [11.1-13.3], P = .0001) and diabetes (RR/CI = 7.0 [5.8-8.2], P = .0018). Positive TAPSE result carries long-term prognostic information regarding mortality and risk of myocardial infarction that can be used to identify patients requiring more aggressive treatment. Negative TAPSE allows highly accurate definition of low-risk population with

Very long-term sequelae of craniopharyngioma.

Science.gov (United States)

Wijnen, Mark; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E; Michiels, Erna M C; van Veelen-Vincent, Marie-Lise C; Dallenga, Alof H G; van den Berge, J Herbert; van Rij, Carolien M; van der Lely, Aart-Jan; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

2017-06-01

Studies investigating long-term health conditions in patients with craniopharyngioma are limited by short follow-up durations and generally do not compare long-term health effects according to initial craniopharyngioma treatment approach. In addition, studies comparing long-term health conditions between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma report conflicting results. The objective of this study was to analyse a full spectrum of long-term health effects in patients with craniopharyngioma according to initial treatment approach and age group at craniopharyngioma presentation. Cross-sectional study based on retrospective data. We studied a single-centre cohort of 128 patients with craniopharyngioma treated from 1980 onwards (63 patients with childhood-onset disease). Median follow-up since craniopharyngioma presentation was 13 years (interquartile range: 5-23 years). Initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches included gross total resection ( n  = 25), subtotal resection without radiotherapy ( n  = 44), subtotal resection with radiotherapy ( n  = 25), cyst aspiration without radiotherapy ( n  = 8), and 90 Yttrium brachytherapy ( n  = 21). Pituitary hormone deficiencies (98%), visual disturbances (75%) and obesity (56%) were the most common long-term health conditions observed. Different initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches resulted in similar long-term health effects. Patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma experienced significantly more growth hormone deficiency, diabetes insipidus, panhypopituitarism, morbid obesity, epilepsy and psychiatric conditions compared with patients with adult-onset disease. Recurrence-/progression-free survival was significantly lower after initial craniopharyngioma treatment with cyst aspiration compared with other therapeutic approaches. Survival was similar between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma. Long-term health conditions were comparable after

Long-term energy planning with uncertain environmental performance metrics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parkinson, Simon C.; Djilali, Ned

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Environmental performance uncertainty considered in a long-term energy planning model. • Application to electricity generation planning in British Columbia. • Interactions with climate change mitigation and adaptation strategy are assessed. • Performance risk-hedging impacts the technology investment strategy. • Sensitivity of results to model formulation is discussed. - Abstract: Environmental performance (EP) uncertainties span a number of energy technology options, and pose planning risk when the energy system is subject to environmental constraints. This paper presents two approaches to integrating EP uncertainty into the long-term energy planning framework. The methodologies consider stochastic EP metrics across multiple energy technology options, and produce a development strategy that hedges against the risk of exceeding environmental targets. Both methods are compared within a case study of emission-constrained electricity generation planning in British Columbia, Canada. The analysis provides important insight into model formulation and the interactions with concurrent environmental policy uncertainties. EP risk is found to be particularly important in situations where environmental constraints become increasingly stringent. Model results indicate allocation of a modest risk premium in these situations can provide valuable hedging against EP risk

Long-term use of antiplatelet drugs by stroke patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ostergaard, Kamilla; Hallas, Jesper; Bak, Søren

2012-01-01

PURPOSE: Treatment with antiplatelet drugs is a key element of secondary stroke prevention. We investigated long-term antiplatelet drug use in stroke patients with a focus on non-persistence. METHODS: Population-based prescription register data were used to determine antiplatelet drug use...... the dosage of a previous prescription had run out, or within 180 days after discharge. Cox regression was used to identify risk factors for non-persistence. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 503 patients with ischaemic stroke discharged in 1999-2001. During follow-up (median 2.8 years, interquartile range 0......-persistent. Stroke severity was inversely associated with the risk of non-persistence [NIHSS score on admission 0-3 (reference); 4-6: hazard risk (HR) 0.87, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.61-1.25; 7+: HR 0.47, 95 % CI 0.29-0.74]. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term non-persistence with antiplatelet treatment was high and more...

Long-term impact of perfusion CT data after subarachnoid hemorrhage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathys, Christian; Martens, Daniel; Reichelt, Dorothea C.; Caspers, Julian; Aissa, Joel; May, Rebecca; Antoch, Gerald; Turowski, Bernd [University Duesseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Duesseldorf (Germany); Haenggi, Daniel [University Duesseldorf, Medical Faculty, Department of Neurosurgery, Duesseldorf (Germany)

2013-11-15

Dynamic perfusion computed tomography (PCT) has been established as a diagnostic instrument for the detection of vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of PCT parameters after SAH on the long-term outcome of patients. Three hundred twelve patients were retrospectively interrogated with a questionnaire 23.06 {+-} 14.33 months after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage. The modified Rankin scale (mRS) was determined, respectively. Scheduled PCT data sets from the first days after ictus were available for all patients. The maximum mean transit time over several examinations per hemisphere (MTT{sub PEAK}) values were significantly correlated (p {<=} 0.001, r = 0.422) with the clinical long-term outcome (mRS). Corresponding to our linear regression analysis, MTT{sub PEAK} is the second most important regressor (behind clinical severity of the initial hemorrhage) for the prediction of long-term mRS. An MTT{sub PEAK} threshold of 3.98 s (identified by receiver operating characteristic analysis, area under the curve = 0.75) predicted an unfavorable long-term outcome (mRS {>=} 2) with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 67.3, 74.3, 84.5, 52.1, and 69.6 %, respectively. The presented data corroborate the relevance of PCT data for the clinical long-term outcome of SAH patients. By identification of patients who are at risk for a bad outcome and may need escalation of therapy, risk-benefit analysis is supported. (orig.)

Life Limiting Issues for Long Term Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esselman, Thomas; Gaertner, John

2012-01-01

This paper reports on a study which identified and characterized life limiting issues for consideration by nuclear plant owners in their decision to extend plant life or seek subsequent license renewal. As nuclear plants operate for longer periods, the risk that a condition in the plant or an event that occurs, at the plant or elsewhere, will cause a plant owner not to extend plant life increases. The Fukushima accident has made this concept concrete. This paper defines 'Life Limiting' concepts for nuclear plants. It identifies the highest risk conditions and events that may limit duration of continued operation in nuclear plants and employs a survey to prioritize these concerns. Methods for evaluating these risks and changing the capability of systems, structures, and components (SSC) to reduce and manage this risk in long term operation are presented. Integrated obsolescence -the existence of an accumulation of events or condition that can threaten long term operation- is discussed. Many of the life limiting conditions or events may be controllable by early identification, recognition, and mitigation of the potential threat. The recognition of conditions may allow measures to be taken to mitigate the condition. Recognition of the potential for events that may be life limiting may allow actions to be taken that will minimize the likelihood or consequences of the event. These actions may include enhanced research on the expected behavior of the SSC, risk assessment and management, and enhanced monitoring and aging management at the plant. (author)

Individual decision making in the non-purchase of long-term care insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Leslie A; Robison, Julie; Shugrue, Noreen; Keenan, Patricia; Kapp, Marshall B

2009-08-01

Although prior research suggests that economic, behavioral, and psychosocial factors influence decisions not to purchase long-term care insurance, few studies have examined the interplay among these factors in depth and from the consumer's point of view. This study was intended to further illuminate these considerations, generate hypotheses about non-purchasing decisions, and inform the design of policies that are responsive to concerns and preferences of potential purchasers. Qualitative study using 32 in-depth interviews and 6 focus groups, following a grounded theory approach. Five themes characterize decisions not to purchase long-term care insurance: (a) the determination that a policy is "too costly" reflects highly individualized and complex trade-offs not solely economic in nature, (b) non-purchasers are skeptical about the viability and integrity of private insurance companies and seek an unbiased source of information, (c) family dynamics play an important role in insurance decisions, (d) contemplating personal risk for long-term care triggers psychological responses that have implications for decision making, and (e) non-purchasers feel inadequately informed and overwhelmed by the process of deciding whether to purchase long-term care insurance. States are seeking to offset escalating Medicaid long-term care expenditures through a variety of policy mechanisms, including stimulating individual purchase of long-term care insurance. Findings suggest that economic incentives such as lowering premiums will be necessary but not sufficient to attract appropriate candidates. Attention to behavioral and psychosocial factors is essential to designing incentives that are responsive to concerns and preferences of potential purchasers.

Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-02-01

Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A long-term risk-benefit analysis of low-dose aspirin in primary prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, I-Chen; Hsieh, Hui-Min; Yu, Fang-Jung; Wu, Meng-Chieh; Wu, Tzung-Shiun; Wu, Ming-Tsang

2016-02-01

The long-term risk-benefit effect of occasional and regular use of low-dose aspirin (≤ 100 mg per day) in primary prevention of vascular diseases and cancers was calculated. One representative database of 1 000 000 participants from Taiwan's National Health Insurance scheme in 1997-2000 was used. The potential study subjects were those aged 30-95 years, were found not to have been prescribed aspirin before 1 January 2000, but to have first been prescribed low-dose aspirin (≤ 100 mg per day) after that date and were followed up to 31 December 2009. Participants prescribed low-dose aspirin risk. A total of 1720 pairs were analysed. During the study period, haemorrhage and ischaemia occurred in 25 (1·45%) and 67 participants (3·90%) in occasional users and 69 (4·01%) and 100 participants (5·81%) in regular users, whereas cancer occurred in 32 participants (1·86%) in occasional users and 26 participants (1·51%) in regular users. The crude and adjusted net clinical risks of low-dose aspirin use between the two frequency of users (≥ 80% vs. prevention against major vascular diseases and cancer. © 2015 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

A Cohort Study on Long-Term Adverse Effects of Parental Drinking: Background and Study Design

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ingunn Olea Lund

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Although many studies have addressed adverse outcomes in children of parents with alcohol abuse/dependence, less is known about the possible long-term effects of more normative patterns of parental alcohol consumption, including drinking at lower risk levels and heavy episodic or binge drinking. The extent of harm from parental drinking may therefore be underestimated. With this research proposal, we describe a project that aims to assess possible long-term adverse effects of parental drinking by combining survey and nationwide registry data. Advantages of a longitudinal general population cohort design include that it allows for detailed information on parental drinking through survey data and identification of possible negative long-term health and social outcomes from exposure to parental drinking 1–19 years after exposure through continuously updated nationwide registers. The rich information available from combining survey and registry data allows us to take into account important confounders, mediators, and moderators.

A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates.

OpenAIRE

Campbell, John Y; Shiller, Robert J

1984-01-01

Recent empirical research on the term structure of interest rates has shown that the long-term interest rate is well described by a distributed lag on short-term interest rates, but does not conform to the expectations theory of the term structure. It has been suggested that the long rate "overreacts" to the short rate. This paper presents aunified taxonomy of risk premia, or deviations from the expectations theory. This enables the hypothesis of overreaction to be formally stated. It is show...

Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

2004-01-01

Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

Long-term complications of splenectomy in adult immune thrombocytopenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Thai, Lan-Huong; Mahévas, Matthieu; Roudot-Thoraval, Françoise; Limal, Nicolas; Languille, Laetitia; Dumas, Guillaume; Khellaf, Mehdi; Bierling, Philippe; Michel, Marc; Godeau, Bertrand

2016-11-01

The recent large decrease in splenectomy use for chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is partly due to still-unsolved questions about long-term safety. We performed the first single-center exposed/unexposed cohort study evaluating the long-term incidence of splenectomy complications in patients with primary ITP. Overall, 83 patients who underwent splenectomy more than 10 years ago (exposed) were matched with 83 nonsplenectomized patients (unexposed) on the date of ITP diagnosis ±5 years, age and gender. After a median follow-up of 192 months (range 0.5-528), 43 patients (52%) achieved overall response after splenectomy. Splenectomized patients experienced more venous thromboembolism (VTE) than controls (n = 13 vs n = 2, P = 0.005). On multivariate analysis, splenectomy was an independent risk factor of VTE (hazard ratio = 4.006, P = 0.032 [95% confidence interval: 1.13-14.21]). Splenectomized patients presented more severe infections on long-term follow-up: all required hospitalization, and 5/26 (19%) infections led to severe sepsis or septic shock and to death for 3 cases (none in controls). However, the incidence of malignancy was similar in both groups, as was cardiovascular risk, which appeared to be related more to ITP than splenectomy. Finally, splenectomy did not significantly decrease overall survival. Despite the risk of thrombosis and severe sepsis, splenectomy remains an effective and curative treatment for ITP.

A review of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timothy David Ramm

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Rising sea levels have the potential to alter coastal flooding regimes around the world and local governments are beginning to consider how to manage uncertain coastal change. In doing so, there is increasing recognition that such change is deeply uncertain and unable to be reliably described with probabilities or a small number of scenarios. Characteristics of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options are reviewed and benchmarked against two state-of-the-art international methods suited for conditions of uncertainty (Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. Seven out of the ten Australian case studies assumed the uncertain parameters, such as sea level rise, could be described deterministically or stochastically when identifying risk and evaluating adaptation options across multi-decadal periods. This basis is not considered sophisticated enough for long-term decision-making, implying that Australian practice needs to increase the use of scenarios to explore a much larger uncertainty space when assessing the performance of adaptation options. Two Australian case studies mapped flexible adaptation pathways to manage uncertainty, and there remains an opportunity to incorporate quantitative methodologies to support the identification of risk thresholds. The contextual framing of risk, including the approach taken to identify risk (top-down or bottom-up and treatment of uncertain parameters, were found to be fundamental characteristics that influenced the methodology selected to evaluate adaptation options. The small sample of case studies available suggests that long-term coastal adaptation in Australian is in its infancy and there is a timely opportunity to guide local government towards robust methodologies for developing long-term coastal adaptation plans.

Modelling the long-term consequences of a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area including remediation alternatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thiessen, K.M.; Andersson, K.G.; Batandjieva, B.; Cheng, J.-J.; Hwang, W.T.; Kaiser, J.C.; Kamboj, S.; Steiner, M.; Tomas, J.; Trifunovic, D.; Yu, C.

2009-01-01

The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program was organized to address issues of remediation assessment modelling for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. The present paper describes the second of two modelling exercises. This exercise was based on a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area from a radiological dispersal device, with reference surface contamination at selected sites used as the primary input information. Modelling endpoints for the exercise included radionuclide concentrations and external dose rates at specified locations, contributions to the dose rates from individual surfaces, and annual and cumulative external doses to specified reference individuals. Model predictions were performed for a 'no action' situation (with no remedial measures) and for selected countermeasures. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of three modelling approaches, as well as a comparison of the predicted effectiveness of various countermeasures in terms of their short-term and long-term effects on predicted doses to humans.

The long-term health of vegetarians and vegans.

Science.gov (United States)

Appleby, Paul N; Key, Timothy J

2016-08-01

Vegetarians, who do not eat any meat, poultry or fish, constitute a significant minority of the world's population. Lacto-ovo-vegetarians consume dairy products and/or eggs, whereas vegans do not eat any foods derived wholly or partly from animals. Concerns over the health, environmental and economic consequences of a diet rich in meat and other animal products have focussed attention on those who exclude some or all of these foods from their diet. There has been extensive research into the nutritional adequacy of vegetarian diets, but less is known about the long-term health of vegetarians and vegans. We summarise the main findings from large cross-sectional and prospective cohort studies in western countries with a high proportion of vegetarian participants. Vegetarians have a lower prevalence of overweight and obesity and a lower risk of IHD compared with non-vegetarians from a similar background, whereas the data are equivocal for stroke. For cancer, there is some evidence that the risk for all cancer sites combined is slightly lower in vegetarians than in non-vegetarians, but findings for individual cancer sites are inconclusive. Vegetarians have also been found to have lower risks for diabetes, diverticular disease and eye cataract. Overall mortality is similar for vegetarians and comparable non-vegetarians, but vegetarian groups compare favourably with the general population. The long-term health of vegetarians appears to be generally good, and for some diseases and medical conditions it may be better than that of comparable omnivores. Much more research is needed, particularly on the long-term health of vegans.

Diagnostic 131I whole-body scintigraphy 1 year after thyroablative therapy in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer: correlation of results to the individual risk profile and long-term follow-up

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berger, Frank; Friedrich, Ulla; Knesewitsch, Peter; Hahn, Klaus

2011-01-01

131 I whole-body scan (WBS) and serum thyroglobulin (TG) are important in detecting thyroid remnants or recurrent disease in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer. Usually, a diagnostic WBS is carried out 6 months after ablation to exclude residual disease. We retrospectively analysed results of a second routine diagnostic WBS and TG measurements at 1 year after thyroablation and correlated these to the risk profile of patients with long-term follow-up. A total of 197 patients were followed up after thyroidectomy and ablative 131 I therapy. Follow-up included clinical examination, radioiodine WBS and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine and TG measurements at 3-6 months and 1 year after ablation. WBS (+) patients received a therapeutic activity of 131 I. The risk profile of patients was defined according to clinical results before the 1-year control. Clinical results at 1 year after ablation were analysed in correlation to the patient risk profile and long-term follow-up data (mean 7.2 years). One year after thyroablation, 95.8% of low-risk patients had no residual disease when diagnostic WBS was carried out using 370 MBq 131 I; 4.2% of low-risk patients had residual disease at this time point. In the high-risk group of this cohort, 54.5% were disease-free 1 year after ablation, but 45.5% demonstrated residual disease. After the 1-year control, 94% of all applied radioiodine therapies were executed in the high-risk group, compared with 6% in the low-risk group (p < 0.01). A second routine WBS 1 year after thyroablation is not indicated in low-risk patients. Risk stratification according to the early clinical course effectively identified patients with higher likelihood of persistent or recurrent disease in the long-term follow-up. (orig.)

Long-term allopurinol use decreases the risk of prostate cancer in patients with gout: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, H-J; Kao, M-C; Tsai, P-S; Fan, Y-C; Huang, C-J

2017-09-01

Clinical observations indicated an increased risk of developing prostate cancer in gout patients. Chronic inflammation is postulated to be one crucial mechanism for prostate carcinogenesis. Allopurinol, a widely used antigout agent, possesses potent anti-inflammation capacity. We elucidated whether allopurinol decreases the risk of prostate cancer in gout patients. We analyzed data retrieved from Taiwan National Health Insurance Database between January 2000 and December 2012. Patients diagnosed with gout during the study period with no history of prostate cancer and who had never used allopurinol were selected. Four allopurinol use cohorts (that is, allopurinol use (>365 days), allopurinol use (181-365 days), allopurinol use (91-180 days) and allopurinol use (31-90 days)) and one cohort without using allopurinol (that is, allopurinol use (No)) were included. The study end point was the diagnosis of new-onset prostate cancer. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and propensity score-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between the risk of prostate cancer and allopurinol treatment in gout patients after adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 25 770 gout patients (aged between 40 and 100 years) were included. Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed that the risk of developing prostate cancer in the allopurinol use (>365 days) cohort was significantly lower than the allopurinol use (No) cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.45-0.9, P=0.011). After propensity score adjustment, the trend remained the same (adjusted HR=0.66, 95% CI=0.46-0.93, P=0.019). Long-term (more than 1 year) allopurinol use may associate with a decreased risk of prostate cancer in gout patients.

Long-Term Survival Prediction for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Validation of the ASCERT Model Compared With The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lancaster, Timothy S; Schill, Matthew R; Greenberg, Jason W; Ruaengsri, Chawannuch; Schuessler, Richard B; Lawton, Jennifer S; Maniar, Hersh S; Pasque, Michael K; Moon, Marc R; Damiano, Ralph J; Melby, Spencer J

2018-05-01

The recently developed American College of Cardiology Foundation-Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategy (ASCERT) Long-Term Survival Probability Calculator is a valuable addition to existing short-term risk-prediction tools for cardiac surgical procedures but has yet to be externally validated. Institutional data of 654 patients aged 65 years or older undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2005 and 2010 were reviewed. Predicted survival probabilities were calculated using the ASCERT model. Survival data were collected using the Social Security Death Index and institutional medical records. Model calibration and discrimination were assessed for the overall sample and for risk-stratified subgroups based on (1) ASCERT 7-year survival probability and (2) the predicted risk of mortality (PROM) from the STS Short-Term Risk Calculator. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate additional perioperative variables contributing to death. Overall survival was 92.1% (569 of 597) at 1 year and 50.5% (164 of 325) at 7 years. Calibration assessment found no significant differences between predicted and actual survival curves for the overall sample or for the risk-stratified subgroups, whether stratified by predicted 7-year survival or by PROM. Discriminative performance was comparable between the ASCERT and PROM models for 7-year survival prediction (p validated for prediction of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting in all risk groups. The widely used STS PROM performed comparably as a predictor of long-term survival. Both tools provide important information for preoperative decision making and patient counseling about potential outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A risk-based monitoring framework for the long term management of used fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garisto, N.C.

2006-01-01

The Nuclear Waste Management Organization has a mandate from the Government of Canada to consult with the public and to recommend an approach for managing Canada's used nuclear fuel. Three main fuel management methods are being explored and evaluated by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization: disposal in a Deep Geological Repository (DGR); reactor-site extended storage (RES); and centralized extended storage (CES), either above ground or below ground. The used nuclear fuel management system, whether a DGR or an extended storage system will require monitoring. In this study, a risk-based monitoring framework was developed for the used fuel management program. The proposed approach addresses the unique challenges of used fuel management being implemented in a multi-stakeholder process, including: (i) the complexity of the facilities; (ii) the need to consider both science-based risk and perceived risk in the monitoring plans; and (iii) the difficulty in conducting 'invasive' measurements of sealed systems, particularly over a very long time frame. (author)

Long-term risk of secondary skin cancers after radiation therapy for Hodgkin’s lymphoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daniëls, Laurien A.; Krol, Augustinus D.G.; Schaapveld, Michael; Putter, Hein; Jansen, Patty M.; Marijt, Erik W.A.; Leeuwen, Flora E. van; Creutzberg, Carien L.

2013-01-01

Purpose: Survivors of Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL) are at risk of secondary tumors. We investigated the risk of secondary skin cancers after radiotherapy compared to treatment without radiation and to an age-matched population. Material and methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 889 HL patients treated between 1965 and 2005. Data on secondary skin cancers and treatment fields were retrieved. Incidence rates were compared to observed rates in the Dutch population. Results: 318 skin cancers were diagnosed in 86 patients, showing significantly higher risks of skin cancers, the majority being BCC. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of BCC in HL survivors was significantly increased (SIR 5.2, 95% CI 4.0–6.6), especially in those aged <35 years at diagnosis (SIR 8.0, 95% CI 5.8–10.7). SIR increased with longer follow-up to 15.9 (95% CI 9.1–25.9) after 35 years, with 626 excess cases per 10,000 patients per year. Most (57%) skin cancers developed within the radiation fields, with significantly increased risk in patients treated with radiotherapy compared to chemotherapy alone (p = 0·047, HR 2·75, 95% CI 1·01–7.45). Conclusion: Radiotherapy for HL is associated with a strongly increased long-term risk of secondary skin cancers, both compared to the general population and to treatment with chemotherapy alone

NKS NordRisk. Atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Havskov Soerensen, J.; Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Lauritzen, Bent; Mikkelsen, Torben

2008-07-01

Within the NKS NordRisk project, 'Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe', the NKS NordRisk Atlas has been developed. The atlas describes risks from hypothetical long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected nuclear risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere. A number of case studies of long-term long-range atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides has been developed, based on two years of meteorological data. Radionuclide concentrations in air and radionuclide depositions have been evaluated and examples of long-term averages of the dispersion and deposition and of the variability around these mean values are provided. (au)

Climate Change Impacts on pricing Long-Term Flood Insurance: A Comprehensive Study for the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.

2011-01-01

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk

Detection of delirium by nurses among long-term care residents with dementia

OpenAIRE

Voyer, Philippe; Richard, Sylvie; Doucet, Lise; Danjou, Christine; Carmichael, Pierre-Hugues

2008-01-01

Abstract Background Delirium is a prevalent problem in long-term care (LTC) facilities where advanced age and cognitive impairment represent two important risk factors for this condition. Delirium is associated with numerous negative outcomes including increased morbidity and mortality. Despite its clinical importance, delirium often goes unrecognized by nurses. Although rates of nurse-detected delirium have been studied among hospitalized older patients, this issue has been largely neglected...

Natural gas market assessment: Long-term Canadian natural gas contracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-08-01

A descriptive analysis is presented of the changes which have occurred and the developing trends in the long-term Canadian contracts governing the sale of western Canadian gas into the domestic and export markets from 1985 to 1991. The report is limited to domestic and export contracts for Canadian gas and does not include imported gas under contract. Contract structures prior to deregulation, the changing role of long-term contracts, size and duration of long-term contracts, and terms and conditions of long-term contracts are discussed. Important changes since the mid-1980s include: increased flexibility in long-term contracts enabling the parties to respond more readily to changing supply and demand conditions; greater balance between the buyer's obligation to purchase and the seller's obligation to deliver; flexible and increasingly simple pricing terms that track competitive market conditions; shorter contract terms; reduced contract volumes as smaller end-users and producer/marketers enter the market; and unbundling of gas sales and transportation service providing a wider range of contracting choices and options. 36 figs., 2 tabs

Long-term survival of adult trauma patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Davidson, Giana H; Hamlat, Christian A; Rivara, Frederick P; Koepsell, Thomas D; Jurkovich, Gregory J; Arbabi, Saman

2011-03-09

Inpatient trauma case fatality rates may provide an incomplete assessment for overall trauma care effectiveness. To date, there have been few large studies evaluating long-term mortality in trauma patients and identifying predictors that increase risk for death following hospital discharge. To determine the long-term mortality of patients following trauma admission and to evaluate survivorship in relationship with discharge disposition. Retrospective cohort study of 124,421 injured adult patients during January 1995 to December 2008 using the Washington State Trauma Registry linked to death certificate data. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate long-term mortality following hospital admission for trauma. Of the 124,421 trauma patients, 7243 died before hospital discharge and 21,045 died following hospital discharge. Cumulative mortality at 3 years postinjury was 16% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.8%-16.2%) compared with the expected population cumulative mortality of 5.9% (95% CI, 5.9%-5.9%). In-hospital mortality improved during the 14-year study period from 8% (n = 362) to 4.9% (n = 600), whereas long-term cumulative mortality increased from 4.7% (95% CI, 4.1%-5.4%) to 7.4% (95% CI, 6.8%-8.1%). After adjustments for confounders, patients who were older and those who were discharged to a skilled nursing facility had the highest risk of death. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for death after discharge to a skilled nursing facility compared with that after discharge home were 1.41 (95% CI, 0.72-2.76) for patients aged 18 to 30 years, 1.92 (95% CI, 1.36-2.73) for patients aged 31 to 45 years, 2.02 (95% CI, 1.39-2.93) for patients aged 46 to 55 years, 1.93 (95% CI, 1.40-2.64) for patients aged 56 to 65 years, 1.49 (95% CI, 1.14-1.94) for patients aged 66 to 75 years, 1.54 (95% CI, 1.27-1.87) for patients aged 76 to 80 years, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.09-1.74) for patients older than 80 years. Other significant predictors of mortality

Long-term Non-Invasive Ventilation in Infants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bedi, Prabhjot K; Castro-Codesal, Maria Luisa; Featherstone, Robin; AlBalawi, Mohammed M; Alkhaledi, Bashar; Kozyrskyj, Anita L; Flores-Mir, Carlos; MacLean, Joanna E

2018-01-01

The use of long-term non-invasive ventilation (NIV) to treat sleep and breathing disorders in children has increased substantially in the last decade; however, less data exist about its use in infants. Given that infants have distinct sleep and breathing patterns when compared to older children, the outcomes of infants on long-term NIV may differ as well. The aim of this study is to systematically review the use and outcomes of long-term NIV in infants. Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, CINAHL (via EbscoHOST), PubMed, and Wiley Cochrane Library were systematically searched from January 1990 to July 2017. Studies on infants using long-term NIV outside of an acute care setting were included. Data were extracted on study design, population characteristics, and NIV outcomes. A total of 327 studies were full-text reviewed, with final inclusion of 60. Studies were distributed across airway (40%), neuromuscular (28%), central nervous system (10%), cardio-respiratory (2%), and multiple (20%) disease categories. Of the 18 airway studies reporting on NIV outcomes, 13 (72%) reported improvements in respiratory parameters. Of the 12 neuromuscular studies exclusively on spinal muscular atrophy type 1 (SMA1), six (50%) reported decreased hospitalizations and nine (75%) reported on mortality outcomes. Risk of bias was moderate to serious, and quality of the evidence was low to very low for all studies. Most studies had an observational design with no control group, limiting the potential for a meta-analysis. The outcomes reported in studies differed by the disease category being studied. Studies on airway conditions showed improvements in respiratory parameters for infants using NIV. Studies on neuromuscular disorder, which were almost exclusively on SMA1, reported decreased hospitalizations and prolonged survival. Overall, it appears that NIV is an effective long-term therapy for infants. However, the high risk of bias and low quality of the available evidence limited strong

Predicted environmental impacts of long-term waste management at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Topp, S.V.

1979-01-01

This paper describes the different alternative approaches to long-term waste management at SRP, along with their probable relative costs, risks, and uncertainties; the issue of methodology for decision-making in nuclear waste management is also raised. This paper contains a preliminary listing of the SRP alternaties including a simple cost-risk analysis. The alternatives are: glass shipped offsite to Federal repository; air-cooled vault with glass at SRP; liquid waste slurry stored in SRP bedrock cavern; and continued tank farm operation with salt and sludge

Long-Term Neuropsychological Outcome in Preterm Twins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Iannone

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Few long-term studies have yet described neuropsychological outcome in preterm twins. Our aim was to assess, by long-term evaluation, neuropsychological outcome in preterm twins in order to define a correct follow-up program. Our study was a cohort one, with an index and a comparison group. Neonatal medical records of all preterm newborns admitted to our centre between 1991 and 1997 were reviewed and selected patients were recalled. The sample population included two matched groups of children aged 6—12 years, 86 twins and 86 singletons, submitted to paediatric, neurological, psychological, and ophthalmological examinations. Inclusion criteria were twin pregnancy and gestational age 27—36 weeks for index group; same gestational age, but single pregnancy, for the comparison group. All children underwent paediatric and neuropsychiatric examinations, cognitive assessment, and psychological evaluation by standardized tests for screening of learning specific disorders and language difficulties, and finally, ophthalmological examination. In order to study their role in predicting neuropsychological outcome, we examined some perinatal prognostic factors by statistical analysis. Unfavourable neuropsychological outcome was observed in 55/172 (32% children, with different prevalence in the two groups, 42/172 (24% in twins and 13/172 (8% in singletons. Statistical analysis performed for examined prognostic factors showed significant differences in neuropsychological outcome with regard only to gestational age < 32 weeks, low birth weight, intraventricular haemorrhage, and periventricular leukomalacia. The incidence of neuropsychological diseases in the two groups showed significant difference about language and learning difficulties. Our data suggest that preterm twins represent a particular high-risk category of premature babies, mostly regarding the risk of so-called “minimal brain dysfunction”, so a careful follow-up is recommended.

Long-term health outcomes of youth sports injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Maffulli, N; Longo, U G; Gougoulias, N; Loppini, M; Denaro, V

2010-01-01

Injuries can counter the beneficial effects of sports participation at a young age if a child or adolescent is unable to continue to participate because of residual effects of injury. This paper reviews current knowledge in the field of long-term health outcomes of youth sports injuries to evaluate the evidence regarding children dropping out of sport due to injury, physeal injuries and growth disturbance, studies of injuries affecting the spine and knee of young and former athletes and surgical outcome of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction in children. Studies of dropping out of sport due to injury are limited primarily to gymnasts and implicate such injuries as ACL rupture and osteochondritis dissecans of the elbow joint in the early retirement of young athletes. Although most physeal injuries resolve with treatment and rest, there is evidence of disturbed physeal growth as a result of injury. Radiological findings implicate the effects of intense physical loading and injury in the development of spinal pathology and back pain during the growth of youth athletes; however, long-term effects are unclear. Follow-up studies of young athletes and adults indicate a high risk of osteoarthritis after meniscus or ACL injury. Prospective cohort studies with a follow-up into adulthood are needed to clarify the long-term health outcomes of youth sports injuries. Important to this research is meticulous documentation of injuries on injury report forms that include age-appropriate designations of the type of injury and accurate determination of exposure-based injury rates.

Long-term coffee consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2014-02-11

Considerable controversy exists on the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1 279 804 participants and 36 352 CVD cases. A nonlinear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity=0.09, P for trend coffee consumption (median, 0 cups per day), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.03) for the highest category (median, 5 cups per day) category, 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.90) for the second highest category (median, 3.5 cups per day), and 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.94) for the third highest category (median, 1.5 cups per day). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was nonlinearly associated with both coronary heart disease (P for heterogeneity=0.001, P for trend 0.05) risks. A nonlinear association between coffee consumption and CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups per day, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk.

Timing of renal replacement therapy and long-term risk of chronic kidney disease and death in intensive care patients with acute kidney injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Søren; Christensen, Steffen; Pedersen, Lars; Gammelager, Henrik; Layton, J Bradley; Brookhart, M Alan; Christiansen, Christian Fynbo

2017-12-28

The optimal time to initiate renal replacement therapy (RRT) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. We examined the impact of early RRT on long-term mortality, risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). This cohort study included all adult patients treated with continuous RRT in the ICU at Aarhus University Hospital, Skejby, Denmark (2005-2015). Data were obtained from a clinical information system and population-based registries. Early treatment was defined as RRT initiation at AKI stage 2 or below, and late treatment was defined as RRT initiation at AKI stage 3. Inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weights were computed from propensity scores. The IPT-weighted cumulative risk of CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate regression. The mortality, CKD, and ESRD analyses included 1213, 303, and 617 patients, respectively. The 90-day mortality in the early RRT group was 53.6% compared with 46.0% in the late RRT group (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.03-1.48). The 90-day to 5-year mortality was 37.7% and 41.5% in the early and late RRT groups, respectively (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.70-1.29). The 5-year risk of CKD was 35.9% in the early RRT group and 44.9% in the late RRT group (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.46-1.18). The 5-year risk of ESRD was 13.3% in the early RRT group and 16.7% in the late RRT group (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.47-1.32). Early initiation was associated with increased 90-day mortality. In patients surviving to day 90, early initiation was not associated with a major impact on long-term mortality or risk of CKD and ESRD. Despite potential residual confounding due to the observational design, our findings do not support that early RRT initiation is superior to late initiation.

Long-Term Symbolic Learning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kennedy, William G; Trafton, J. G

2007-01-01

What are the characteristics of long-term learning? We investigated the characteristics of long-term, symbolic learning using the Soar and ACT-R cognitive architectures running cognitive models of two simple tasks...

Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

The metabolic syndrome and disturbances in hormone levels in long-term survivors of disseminated testicular cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nuver, J; Smit, AJ; Wolffenbuttel, BHR; Sluiter, WJ; Hoekstra, HJ; Sleifer, DT; Gietema, JA

2005-01-01

Purpose The metabolic syndrome may be an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease in long-term survivors of testicular cancer (TC). We investigated the associations between hormone levels and the metabolic syndrome in these men. Patients and Methods We included TC patients cured by

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Hincks, T. K.; Aspinall, W. P.; Baxter, P. J.; Searl, A.; Sparks, R. S. J.; Woo, G.

2006-01-01

Frequent ash fallout from long-lived eruptions (with active phases greater than 5 years) may lead to local populations experiencing unacceptably high cumulative exposures to respirable particulate matter. Ash from Montserrat has been shown to contain significant levels of cristobalite and other reactive agents that are associated with an increased risk of developing pneumoconiosis (including silicosis) and other long-term health problems. There are a number of difficulties associated with estimating risks in populations due to uncertain and wide ranging individual exposures, change in behaviour with time and the natural variation in individual response. Present estimates of risk in workers and other population groups are simplifications based on a limited number of exposure measurements taken on Montserrat (1996-1999), and exposure-response curves from epidemiological studies of coal workers exposed to siliceous dust. In this paper we present a method for calculating the long-term cumulative exposure to cristobalite from volcanic ash by Monte Carlo simulation. Code has been written to generate synthetic time series for volcanic activity, rainfall, ash deposition and erosion to give daily ash deposit values and cristobalite fraction at a range of locations. The daily mean personal exposure for PM10 and cristobalite is obtained by sampling from a probability distribution, with distribution parameters dependent on occupation, ground deposit depth and daily weather conditions. Output from multiple runs is processed to calculate the exceedance probability for cumulative exposure over a range of occupation types, locations and exposure periods. Results are interpreted in terms of current occupational standards, and epidemiological exposure-response functions for silicosis are applied to quantify the long-term health risk. Assuming continuing volcanic activity, median risk of silicosis (profusion 1/0 or higher) for an average adult after 20 years continuous exposure is

Associations between treatment, scoliosis, pulmonary function, and physical performance in long-term survivors of sarcoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Interiano, Rodrigo B; Kaste, Sue C; Li, Chenghong; Srivastava, Deo Kumar; Rao, Bhaskar N; Warner, William C; Green, Daniel M; Krasin, Matthew J; Robison, Leslie L; Davidoff, Andrew M; Hudson, Melissa M; Fernandez-Pineda, Israel; Ness, Kirsten K

2017-10-01

Longer survival for children with sarcoma has led to the recognition of chronic health conditions related to prior therapy. We sought to study the association of sarcoma therapy with the development of scoliosis. We reviewed patient demographics, treatment exposures, and functional outcomes for patients surviving >10 years after treatment for sarcoma between 1964 and 2002 at our institution. The diagnosis of scoliosis was determined by imaging. Functional performance and standardized questionnaires were completed in a long-term follow-up clinic. We identified 367 patients, with median age at follow-up of 33.1 years. Scoliosis was identified in 100 (27.2%) patients. Chest radiation (relative risk (RR), 1.88 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.21-2.92), p sarcoma are at risk of developing scoliosis when treatment regimens include chest radiation or rib resection. Identification of these risk factors may allow for early intervention designed to prevent adverse long-term outcomes. Cancer survivors at risk of developing scoliosis may benefit from monitoring of pulmonary status and early physical therapy.

Beyond the five-year horizon: long-term outcome of high-risk and inoperable patients undergoing TAVR with first-generation devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Deutsch, Marcus-André; Erlebach, Magdalena; Burri, Melchior; Hapfelmeier, Alexander; Witt, Olivia Ganga; Ziegelmueller, Johannes Amadeus; Wottke, Michael; Ruge, Hendrik; Krane, Markus; Piazza, Nicolo; Bleiziffer, Sabine; Lange, Rüdiger

2018-05-20

We sought to determine the long-term outcome of high-risk patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) with first-generation devices with a focus on the identification of predictors for mortality and valve durability. Consecutive patients in our prospective single-centre registry undergoing TAVR with first-generation devices (n=214 CoreValve; n=86 SAPIEN) between 06/2007 and 07/2009 were retrospectively analysed (n=300, mean age 81.43±6.55 years, mean STS score 6.5±4.5%). Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to identify independent predictors of all-cause-mortality. At 1, 5, and 7 years, estimated survival rates were 76.0%, 40.2%, and 23.2%, respectively. Age-adjusted baseline predictors of mortality included atrial fibrillation, impaired kidney function, peripheral artery disease, and mitral regurgitation (≥moderate). Baseline risk-adjusted procedure-related predictors for all-cause mortality included acute kidney injury, neurological events, major vascular complications, and major/life-threatening bleeding. At both five and six years, 78.2% of surviving patients were in NYHA Class I or II. PVL was ≤mild in the majority of patients at discharge and throughout follow-up. At seven years, the overall crude cumulative incidence of structural valve deterioration according to the 2017 EAPCI/ESC/EACTS definition was 14.9% (CoreValve 11.8% vs. SAPIEN 22.6%; p=0.01). Seven years after TAVR, 23.2% of high-risk patients were still alive. Independent predictors of all-cause mortality included both patient- and procedure-related factors. With a cumulative incidence of 14.9% at seven years, there is some suggestion that SVD post TAVR may become increasingly relevant during longer-term follow-up.

Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

1993-01-01

Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

Long-Term Coffee Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and a Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2013-01-01

Background Considerable controversy exists regarding the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. Methods and Results Pubmed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1,279,804 participants and 36,352 CVD cases. A non-linear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity = 0.09, P for trend coffee consumption (median: 0 cups/d), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.03) for the highest (median: 5 cups/d) category, 0.85 (0.80 to 0.90) for the second highest (median: 3.5 cups/d), and 0.89 (0.84 to 0.94) for the third highest category (median: 1.5 cups/d). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was non-linearly associated with both CHD (P for heterogeneity = 0.001, P for trend 0.05). Conclusions A non-linear association between coffee consumption with CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups/d, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk. PMID:24201300

Long-term functional and survival outcomes after induction chemotherapy and risk-based definitive therapy for locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck.

Science.gov (United States)

Hutcheson, Katherine A; Lewin, Jan S; Holsinger, F Christopher; Steinhaus, Ganene; Lisec, Asher; Barringer, Denise A; Lin, Heather Y; Villalobos, Sandra; Garden, Adam S; Papadimitrakopoulou, Vali; Kies, Merrill S

2014-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term outcomes after induction chemotherapy followed by "risk-based" local therapy for locally-advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). Forty-seven patients (stage IV; ≥N2b) were enrolled in a phase II trial. Baseline and 24-month functional measures included modified barium swallow (MBS) studies, oropharyngeal swallow efficiency (OPSE), and the MD Anderson Dysphagia Inventory (MDADI). Functional status was assessed at 5 years. Five-year overall survival (OS) was 89% (95% confidence interval [CI], 81% to 99%). A nonsignificant 13% average reduction in swallowing efficiency (OPSE) was observed at 24 months relative to baseline (p = .191). MDADI scores approximated baseline at 24 months. Among 42 long-term survivors (median, 5.9 years), 3 patients (7.1%) had chronic dysphagia. The rate of final gastrostomy dependence was 4.8% (2 of 42). Sequential chemoradiotherapy achieved favorable outcomes among patients with locally advanced SCCHN, mainly of oropharyngeal origin. MBS and MDADI scores found modest swallowing deterioration at 2 years, and chronic aspiration was uncommon in long-term survivors. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

NKS NordRisk. Atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Havskov Soerensen, J.; Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A. (Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark)); Lauritzen, Bent; Mikkelsen, Torben (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde (Denmark))

2008-07-15

Within the NKS NordRisk project, 'Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe', the NKS NordRisk Atlas has been developed. The atlas describes risks from hypothetical long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected nuclear risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere. A number of case studies of long-term long-range atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides has been developed, based on two years of meteorological data. Radionuclide concentrations in air and radionuclide depositions have been evaluated and examples of long-term averages of the dispersion and deposition and of the variability around these mean values are provided. (au)

Medical Underwriting In Long-Term Care Insurance: Market Conditions Limit Options For Higher-Risk Consumers.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornell, Portia Y; Grabowski, David C; Cohen, Marc; Shi, Xiaomei; Stevenson, David G

2016-08-01

A key feature of private long-term care insurance is that medical underwriters screen out would-be buyers who have health conditions that portend near-term physical or cognitive disability. We applied common underwriting criteria based on data from two long-term care insurers to a nationally representative sample of individuals in the target age range (50-71 years) for long-term care insurance. The screening criteria put upper bounds on the current proportion of Americans who could gain coverage in the individual market without changes to medical underwriting practice. Specifically, our simulations show that in the target age range, approximately 30 percent of those whose wealth meets minimum industry standards for suitability for long-term care insurance would have their application for such insurance rejected at the underwriting stage. Among the general population-without considering financial suitability-we estimated that 40 percent would have their applications rejected. The predicted rejection rates are substantially higher than the rejection rates of about 20-25 percent of applicants in the actual market. In evaluating reforms for long-term care financing and their potential to increase private insurance rates, as well as to reduce financial pressure on public safety-net programs, policy makers need to consider the role of underwriting in the market for long-term care insurance. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Screening manual and office workers for risk of long-term sickness absence : cut-off points for the Work Ability Index

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schouten, Lianne S.; Joling, Catelijne I.; van der Gulden, Joost W. J.; Heymans, Martijn W.; Bultmann, Ute; Roelen, Corne A. M.

Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the Work Ability Index (WAI) as a tool to screen for risk of different durations of long-term sickness absence (LTSA) among manual and office workers. Methods The prospective study comprised a cohort of 3049 (1710 manual and 1339 office) workers

Identification of long-term containment/stabilization technology performance issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthern, G.E.; Nickelson, D.F.

1997-01-01

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) faces a somewhat unique challenge when addressing in situ remedial alternatives that leave long-lived radionuclides and hazardous contaminants onsite. These contaminants will remain a potential hazard for thousands of years. However, the risks, costs, and uncertainties associated with removal and offsite disposal are leading many sites to select in situ disposal alternatives. Improvements in containment, stabilization, and monitoring technologies will enhance the viability of such alternatives for implementation. DOE's Office of Science and Technology sponsored a two day workshop designed to investigate issues associated with the long-term in situ stabilization and containment of buried, long-lived hazardous and radioactive contaminants. The workshop facilitated communication among end users representing most sites within the DOE, regulators, and technologists to define long-term performance issues for in situ stabilization and containment alternatives. Participants were divided into groups to identify issues and a strategy to address priority issues. This paper presents the results of the working groups and summarizes the conclusions. A common issue identified by the work groups is communication. Effective communication between technologists, risk assessors, end users, regulators, and other stakeholders would contribute greatly to resolution of both technical and programmatic issues

Long-term functional outcome of bilateral spontaneous and simultaneous Achilles tendon ruptures.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Ellanti, Prasad

2012-10-01

Bilateral simultaneous ruptures are rare comprising less than 1% of all Achilles tendon ruptures. Risk factors for bilateral ruptures include chronic diseases and medications such as corticosteroids and fluoroquinolones. There is little in the literature on the long-term functional outcome of bilateral Achilles tendon ruptures. This article present a series of 3 cases of simultaneous and spontaneous bilateral Achilles tendon ruptures with a minimum of 5-year follow up suggesting a good functional outcome.

Do mental health consumers want to improve their long-term disease risk behaviours? A survey of over 2000 psychiatric inpatients.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlem, Kate; Bailey, Jacqueline; Metse, Alexandra; Asara, Ashley; Wye, Paula; Clancy, Richard; Wiggers, John; Bowman, Jenny

2017-12-02

Policies and clinical guidelines acknowledge the role mental health services have in addressing the physical health of individuals with a mental illness; however, little research has explored interest in reducing health risk behaviours or the acceptability of receiving support to reduce such risks among psychiatric inpatients. This study estimated the prevalence of four long-term disease risk behaviours (tobacco smoking, hazardous alcohol consumption, inadequate fruit and/or vegetable consumption, and inadequate physical activity); patient interest in reducing these risks; and acceptability of being provided care to do so during a psychiatric inpatient stay. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken with 2075 inpatients from four inpatient psychiatric facilities in one health district in Australia (October 2012-April 2014). Prevalence of risk behaviours ranged from 50.2% (inadequate physical activity) to 94.8% (inadequate fruit and/or vegetable consumption). The majority of respondents (88.4%) had more than one risk behaviour, and most were seriously considering improving their risk behaviours (47.6% to 65.3%). The majority (80.4%) agreed that it would be acceptable to be provided support and advice to change such behaviours during their psychiatric inpatient stay. Some diagnoses were associated with smoking and hazardous alcohol consumption, interest in reducing alcohol consumption and increasing fruit and/or vegetable consumption, and acceptability of receiving advice and support. The findings reinforce the need and opportunity for psychiatric inpatient facilities to address the long-term disease risk behaviours of their patients. © 2017 The Authors International Journal of Mental Health Nursing published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Long-term sickness absence from work due to physical inactivity: A registry-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Høgsbro, Cecilie; Davidsen, Michael; Sørensen, Jan

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between leisure-time physical inactivity and long-term sickness absence in a representative sample of individuals aged 16-54 years, within the labour market and in good health. It was hypothesised that physically inactive individuals have a higher risk of long-term sickness absence and longer duration of sickness absence. The study population was identified from the National Health and Morbidity Survey, 2010. Weekly data on long-term sickness absence were obtained from the National Register on Social Transfer Payments (the DREAM registry). The association of incidence and duration of long-term sickness absence with physical inactivity was explored using logistic and Poisson regression. Data were fitted to models with levels of physical activity, demographic, social and lifestyle characteristics as independent variables. A combined hurdle model was used to estimate the difference in mean number of absence weeks. Logistic regression showed that physically inactive individuals had a 27% higher incidence of long-term sickness absence compared with physically active individuals. The Poisson regression showed that long-term sickness absence was only slightly shorter (1 week less) for moderately active individuals compared with inactive individuals. The hurdle model estimated longer absence periods for inactive individuals (additional 2.5 weeks) in comparison with moderately and highly active individuals. The study showed that physically inactive individuals have a higher incidence of long-term absence and that physically inactive individuals have longer periods with sickness absence than moderately and highly active individuals. When adjustments for social and health behaviour were included, the estimated associations became statistically insignificant.

Verbal Short-Term Memory Span in Children: Long-Term Modality Dependent Effects of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Science.gov (United States)

Geva, R.; Eshel, R.; Leitner, Y.; Fattal-Valevski, A.; Harel, S.

2008-01-01

Background: Recent reports showed that children born with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) are at greater risk of experiencing verbal short-term memory span (STM) deficits that may impede their learning capacities at school. It is still unknown whether these deficits are modality dependent. Methods: This long-term, prospective design study…

Pre-operative Carotid Plaque Echolucency Assessment has no Predictive Value for Long-Term Risk of Stroke or Cardiovascular Death in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

de Waard, D; de Borst, G J; Bulbulia, R; Pan, H; Halliday, A

2017-08-01

In patients with carotid stenosis receiving medical treatment, carotid plaque echolucency has been thought to predict risk of future stroke and of other cardiovascular events. This study evaluated the prognostic value of pre-operative plaque echolucency for future stroke and cardiovascular death in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy in the first Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1). In ACST-1, 1832/3120 patients underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA), of whom 894 had visual echolucency assessment according to the Gray-Weale classification. During follow-up patients were monitored both for peri-procedural (i.e. within 30 days) death, stroke, or MI, and for long-term risk of stroke or cardiovascular death. Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation was used to calculate odds ratios of peri-procedural risk and Kaplan-Meier statistics with log-rank test were used to compare cumulative long-term risks. Of 894 operated patients in whom echolucency was assessed, 458 plaques (51%) were rated as echolucent and peri-procedural risk of death/stroke/MI in these patients was non-significantly higher when compared with patients with non-echolucent plaques (OR 1.48 [95% CI 0.76-2.88], p = .241). No differences were found in the 10 year risk of any stroke (30/447 [11.6%] vs. 29/433 [11.0%], p = .900) or cardiovascular (non-stroke) death (85/447 [27.9%] vs. 93/433 [32.1%], p = .301). In ACST-1, carotid plaque echolucency assessment in patients undergoing CEA offered no predictive value with regard to peri-operative or long-term stroke risk or of cardiovascular (non-stroke) death. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-12-01

It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

2006-01-01

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

Risk considerations for a long-term open-state of the radioactive waste storage facility Schacht Asse II. Variation of the parameter sets for radio-ecological modeling using the Monte Carlo method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kueppers, Christian; Ustohalova, Veronika

2013-01-01

The risk considerations for a long-term open-state of the radioactive waste storage facility Schacht Asse II include the following issues: description of radio-ecological models for the radionuclide transport in the covering rock formations and determination of the radiation exposure, parameters of the radio-ecological and their variability, Monte-Carlo method application. The results of the modeling calculations include the group short-living radionuclides, long-living radionuclides, radionuclides in the frame of decay chains and sensitivity analyses with respect to the correlation of input data and results.

Policies for replacing long-term indwelling urinary catheters in adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Fergus P M; Alexander, Cameron Edwin; Sinha, Sanjay; Omar, Muhammad Imran

2016-07-26

Long-term indwelling catheters are used commonly in people with lower urinary tract problems in home, hospital and specialised health-care settings. There are many potential complications and adverse effects associated with long-term catheter use. The effect of health-care policies related to the replacement of long-term urinary catheters on patient outcomes is unclear. To determine the effectiveness of different policies for replacing long-term indwelling urinary catheters in adults. We searched the Cochrane Incontinence Specialised Trials Register, which contains trials identified from the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print, CINAHL, ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO ICTRP and handsearching of journals and conference proceedings (searched 19 May 2016), and the reference lists of relevant articles. All randomised controlled trials investigating policies for replacing long-term indwelling urinary catheters in adults were included. At least two review authors independently performed data extraction and assessed risk of bias of all the included trials. Quality of evidence was assessed by adopting the GRADE approach. Any discrepancies were resolved by discussion between the review authors or an independent arbitrator. We contacted the authors of included trials to seek clarification where required. Three trials met the inclusion criteria, with a total of 107 participants in three different health-care settings: A USA veterans administration nursing home; a geriatric centre in Israel; and a community nursing service in Hong Kong. Data were available for three of the pre-stated comparisons. Priefer and colleagues evaluated different time intervals between catheter replacement (n = 17); Firestein and colleagues evaluated the use of antibiotic prophylaxis at the time of replacement (n = 70); and Cheung and colleagues compared two different types of cleaning solutions (n = 20).All the included trials were

Long Term Incentives for Residential Customers Using Dynamic Tariff

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Shaojun; Wu, Qiuwei; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

2015-01-01

This paper reviews several grid tariff schemes, including flat tariff, time-of-use, time-varying tariff, demand charge and dynamic tariff (DT), from the perspective of the long term incentives. The long term incentives can motivate the owners of flexible demands to change their energy consumption...... behavior in such a way that the power system operation issues, such as system balance and congestion, can be alleviated. From the comparison study, including analysis and case study, the DT scheme outperforms the other tariff schemes in terms of cost saving and network operation condition improving....

Long-Term Causes of Death and Excess Mortality After Carotid Artery Ligation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, Tarik F; Jahromi, Behnam Rezai; Miettinen, Joonas; Raj, Rahul; Andrade-Barazarte, Hugo; Goehre, Felix; Kivisaari, Riku; Lehto, Hanna; Hernesniemi, Juha

2016-06-01

Carotid artery ligation (CAL) is used to treat large and complex intracranial aneurysms. However, little is known about long-term survival and causes of death in patients who undergo the procedure. This study was intended to evaluate if patients who have undergone CAL have long-term excess mortality and what the causes of death are. All patients were treated at Helsinki University Hospital between 1937 and 2009. Patients who had undergone CAL and survived ≥1 year after the procedure were included in the cohort. Follow-up was until death or 2015 (2711 patient-years). Causes of death were reviewed and relative survival ratios calculated using the Ederer II method and a matched population. There was 12% excess mortality in all patients 20 years after CAL and 22% after 30 years. A higher proportion of the patients who had subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) died during follow-up compared with unruptured patients undergoing CAL. Cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular accident were the leading causes of death. Patients with unruptured aneurysms did not experience as much excess mortality as those who had an SAH. The higher proportion of deaths observed in ruptured patients may be partly because of long-term excess mortality conferred by the SAH itself or SAH risk factors. Although the entire population did display excess mortality compared with the general population, this may be because of shared risk factors for aneurysm development and rupture and the cause of death. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ERDA's long-term waste management goals and programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perge, A.F.; Trice, V.G. Jr.; Walton, R.D. Jr.

1976-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the ERDA's major program for the long-term waste management of radioactive waste and provides a perspective for symposium participants with regard to the interrelationship of specific components of the program that are discussed in detail in other ERDA-sponsored papers. Needs, goals, and plans are reviewed for ERDA's management of the commercially generated wastes which are expected to be delivered to ERDA in accordance with Federal regulations. At present, ERDA responsibilities include long-term management of commercial-level wastes. Possible future regulations may give ERDA responsibility for the long-term management of commercial low-level solid wastes contaminated with transuranic nuclides. Primary planning goals and programs for the development of terminal storage facilities and waste processing technology to produce acceptable waste forms for long-term management are reviewed for each of the waste types identified above. The status of development programs for the long-term management of airborne radionuclides, which may be required at some time in the future, is also reviewed. (author)

Effect of Long-Term Consumption of Lactobacillus paracasei SD1 on Reducing Mutans streptococci and Caries Risk: A Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rawee Teanpaisan

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Background: A previous study revealed Lactobacillus paracasei SD1, a probiotic strain, could reduce mutans streptococci (MS. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term effects of L. paracasei SD1 on the colonization of MS, and whether caries lesions developed. Methods: After informed consent, 122 children were recruited and randomly assigned to the probiotic or control groups. The probiotic group received milk-powder containing L. paracasei SD1 and the control group received standard milk-powder once daily for six months. Salivary MS and lactobacilli were enumerated using differential culture at baseline and at three-month intervals for 12 months. The persistence of L. paracasei SD1 was investigated using AP-PCR for DNA-fingerprinting. Oral health was examined at baseline and at the end of the study according to WHO criteria. Results: The long-term consumption could prolong colonization of L. paracasei SD1. Significantly reduced MS counts and increased lactobacilli levels were found among children in the probiotic group. There were less caries lesions in the probiotic group at the end of the study. A significant reduction of the development of new caries lesions (4.5 times was observed in the high caries risk group but not in the low caries risk group. Conclusions: Results demonstrate that the long-term daily ingestion of the human-derived probiotic L. paracasei SD1 significantly reduces the number of MS and caries risk in the high caries group.

Extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae colonisation in long-term overseas business travellers.

Science.gov (United States)

Mizuno, Yasutaka; Miura, Yuri; Yamaguchi, Tetsuo; Matsumoto, Tetsuya

International travel is considered a risk for colonisation with extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE). To our knowledge, no studies to date have focused on ESBL-PE colonisation among long-term business travellers. Therefore this study aimed to clarify the characteristics associated with ESBL-PE colonisation in Japanese long-term business travellers. Japanese business travellers planning to stay abroad for ≥6 months were enrolled. Of the 192 travellers, 135 provided only post-travel stool samples and 57 provided both pre- and post-travel stool samples. Additionally, microbiological analyses of ESBL-PE strains, including susceptibility tests and polymerase chain reaction amplification of CTX-M genes and their sequencing were performed. A post-travel survey showed that of the 55 travellers (40.7%) who tested positive for ESBL-PE after travel, the highest proportion was travellers returning from East and Central Asia. CTX-M gene analyses showed that CTX-M-15 was the most frequently observed (55.0%). A pre- and post-travel survey showed that of the 22 travellers (44.9%) acquired ESBL-PE during their travel, with acquisition most frequently observed in travellers returning from South Asia. Risk-based evaluations of ESBL-PE colonisation should be performed not only for regular tourists but also for long-term business travellers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Jumping combined exercise programs reduce fall risk and improve balance and life quality of elderly people who live in a long-term care facility.

Science.gov (United States)

Cakar, E; Dincer, U; Kiralp, M Z; Cakar, D B; Durmus, O; Kilac, H; Soydan, F C; Sevinc, S; Alper, C

2010-03-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether regular combined exercise program, which consists strength, stretching and aerobic exercises and additional jumping training, improve balance, fall risk, quality of life and depression status of older people living in a residential care. A total of 168 residents who live in a long term care facility were screened. The trial began with 78 eligible participants and they were randomly grouped as combined exercises program (COM) group that includes stretching, strength and aerobic exercises, and COM plus jumping (COMpJ) group. 66 of the participants finished the trial. The groups were convened three times a week for six weeks. Each group had a warm-up, effective training and a cooling down periods. The total exercising time was no longer than 45 minutes in each group. Berg balance test and Biodex Balance System for the assessment of the dynamic balance and fall risk, short form 36 (SF 36) for the health related quality of life and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) for evaluation of the depression status were used. The balance improvement and fall risk reduction were observed in both of the groups at the end of the trial; however, the improvements were statistically better in jumping combined group. Also health related quality of life improved in both groups. Regular group exercise in a long term care facility have several beneficial effects on the elderly residents in regard to balance improvement, fall risk reduction and quality of life. The addition of jumping to strength, stretching and aerobic exercises provides important contributions to balance improvement and fall risk reduction.

Long-term mortality rates (>8-year) improve as compared to the general and obese population following bariatric surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Telem, Dana A; Talamini, Mark; Shroyer, A Laurie; Yang, Jie; Altieri, Maria; Zhang, Qiao; Gracia, Gerald; Pryor, Aurora D

2015-03-01

Sparse data are available on long-term patient mortality following bariatric surgery as compared to the general population. The purpose of this study was to assess long-term mortality rates and identify risk factors for all-cause mortality following bariatric surgery. New York State (NYS) Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) longitudinal administrative data were used to identify 7,862 adult patients who underwent a primary laparoscopic bariatric surgery from 1999 to 2005. The Social Security Death Index database identified >30-day mortalities. Risk factors for mortality were screened using a univariate Cox proportional hazard (PH) model and analyzed using a multiple PH model. Based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity, actuarial projections for NYS mortality rates obtained from Centers of Disease Control were compared to the actual post-bariatric surgery mortality rates observed. The mean bariatric mortality rate was 2.5 % with 8-14 years of follow-up. Mean time to death ranged from 4 to 6 year and did not differ by operation (p = 0.073). From 1999 to 2010, the actuarial mortality rate predicted for the general NYS population was 2.1 % versus the observed 1.5 % for the bariatric surgery population (p = 0.005). Extrapolating to 2013, demonstrated the actuarial mortality predictions at 3.1 % versus the bariatric surgery patients' observed morality rate of 2.5 % (p = 0.01). Risk factors associated with an earlier time to death included: age, male gender, Medicare/Medicaid insurance, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, pulmonary circulation disorders, and diabetes. No procedure-specific or perioperative complication impact for time-to-death was found. Long-term mortality rate of patients undergoing bariatric surgery significantly improves as compared to the general population regardless of bariatric operation performed. Additionally, perioperative complications do not increase long-term mortality risk. This study did identify specific patient

A basic strategy for financing long term care.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, J A; Leutz, W N

1984-02-01

As pressure mounts to contain Medicaid long term care spending, short-range "quick fixes" must be avoided. Three such false solutions in particular have shortcomings that may actually exacerbate long term care's financial dilemma because they are based on inadequate definitions of the problem. Two of these proposals--legislation to broaden family responsibility toward institutionalized elders on Medicaid and expanded state power to put liens on such elders' real property--err by trying to mandate "caring" and are predicated on a misunderstanding of the "spend-down" problem. The other proposal--to provide tax incentives to family members who care for elders--requires a large administrative apparatus, assumes an elasticity of supply that may not exist, and could disrupt the "gift relationship" on which family exchanges are often based. What is needed is a strategy with short term, intermediate, and long term objectives that move toward an insurance approach. The short term plan should lay the groundwork for intermediate strategy and control costs by changing rate-setting methods and putting limits on facility construction. The intermediate plan should change the problem's definition from one of merely controlling Medicaid long term care expenditures to one of efficiently managing state resources for the elderly through the development of state financing and local delivery systems that target older persons in greatest need. An effective means of doing this is through the creation of social/HMOs, which have five key features: integration of service responsibility and authority; flexibility in organizational design; balanced clientele; pooled prepaid funding; and financial risk for the provider organization. Finally, the long term strategy should transfer much of the long term care financial burden from individuals and state Medicaid agencies to insurance mechanisms. Many individuals would thus avoid impoverishment caused by health care spending and Medicaid would

Cumulative Alendronate Dose and the Long-Term Absolute Risk of Subtrochanteric and Diaphyseal Femur Fractures: A Register-Based National Cohort Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abrahamsen, Bo; Eiken, Pia Agnete; Eastell, Richard

2010-01-01

are currently the subject of a U.S. Food and Drug Administration review. Objective: Our objective was to examine the risk of subtrochanteric/diaphyseal femur fractures in long term users of alendronate. Design: We conducted an age- and gender-matched cohort study using national healthcare data. Patients...

Risk factors of long-term sickness absence in Norway and Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vegard Johansen

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Aims: This paper examines the level of long-term sickness absence (LTSA in Norway and Sweden. It also investigates whether risk factors of LTSA are the same in Norway and Sweden. Methods: More than 2500 Norwegian and Swedish workers between 20 and 60 years of age answered a postal questionnaire. The Norwegian and Swedish samples are weighted and representative with regard to regional background variables and demographic background variables, but the response rate was low. LTSA is defined as 15 days or more sickness absence in the previous year. Binary logistic regression is used to detect which factors influence LTSA. The analyses of LTSA include demographic factors, socio-economic position, and occupational characteristics. Results: Nineteen per cent of respondents in Norway and 11 per cent of respondents in Sweden experienced LTSA in the previous year. Many respondents from Sweden report mental problems and many Norwegian respondents report pain in back, neck, knuckles, and muscles. Income level is the most important predictor of LTSA in both countries. The direct impacts of gender, age, and physical work conditions are stronger in Norway than Sweden.Discussion: In accordance with official statistics and previous studies, the proportion of Norwegian respondents with LTSA is much higher than the proportion of Swedish respondents. The different levels of LTSA could be linked to differences in social policy. In line with previous studies, respondents with low income are overrepresented with LTSA, and gender, age, and physical work also matter. In contrast to previous studies, there is not any evidence of higher levels of LTSA among non-western immigrants, people with less education, and non-managers. These results reflect the control for ‘income level’, but they could also be related to limits with the survey (non-response, response bias, etc..

Preventive Intervention for Preschoolers at High Risk for Antisocial Behavior: Long-Term Effects on Child Physical Aggression and Parenting Practices

Science.gov (United States)

Brotman, Laurie Miller; Gouley, Kathleen Kiely; Huang, Keng-Yen; Rosenfelt, Amanda; O'Neal, Colleen; Klein, Rachel G.; Shrout, Patrick

2008-01-01

This article presents long-term effects of a preventive intervention for young children at high risk for antisocial behavior. Ninety-two children (M age = 4 years) were randomly assigned to an 8-month family intervention or no-intervention control condition and assessed 4 times over a 24-month period. Intent-to-treat analyses revealed significant…

Long-term governance for sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martell, M.

2007-01-01

Meritxell Martell spoke of the long-term aspects of radioactive waste management. She pointed out that decision-making processes need to be framed within the context of sustainability, which means that a balance should be sought between scientific considerations, economic aspects and structural conditions. Focusing on structural aspects, Working Group 3 of COWAM-Spain came to the conclusion that the activity of the regulator is a key factor of long-term management. Another finding is that from a sustainability perspective multi-level governance is more effective for coping with the challenges of radioactive waste management than one tier of government-making decisions. The working group also felt that the current Local Information Committees need to evolve towards more institutionalized and legitimized mechanisms for long-term involvement. Ms. Martell introduced a study comparing the efficiency of economic instruments to advance sustainable development in nuclear communities vs. municipalities in mining areas. The study found that funds transferred to nuclear zones had become a means to facilitate local acceptance of nuclear facilities rather than a means to promote socio-economic development. Another finding is that economic instruments are not sufficient guarantees of sustainable development by themselves; additional preconditions include leadership, vision and entrepreneur-ship on the part of community leaders, private or public investments, among others. Finally, Ms. Martell summarised the challenges faced by the Spanish radioactive waste management programme, which include the need for strategic thinking, designing the future in a participatory fashion, and working with local and regional governments and citizens to devise mechanisms for social learning, economic development and environmental protection. (author)

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

Science.gov (United States)

Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

2016-04-01

The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Long-term recurrent subarachnoid hemorrhage after adequate coiling versus clipping of ruptured intracranial aneurysms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaafsma, Joanna D.; Sprengers, Marieke E.; van Rooij, Willem Jan; Sluzewski, Menno; Majoie, Charles B. L. M.; Wermer, Marieke J. H.; Rinkel, Gabriel J. E.

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Coiling is increasingly used as treatment for intracranial aneurysms. Despite its favorable short-term outcome, concerns exist about long-term reopening and inherent risk of recurrent subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). We hypothesized a higher risk for recurrent SAH after

Long-Term Results After High-Dose Radiotherapy and Adjuvant Hormones in Prostate Cancer: How Curable Is High-Risk Disease?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zapatero, Almudena, E-mail: azapatero.hlpr@salud.madrid.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa, Madrid (Spain); Garcia-Vicente, Feliciano [Department of Medical Physics, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa, Madrid (Spain); Martin de Vidales, Carmen; Cruz Conde, Alfonso; Ibanez, Yamile [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa, Madrid (Spain); Fernandez, Inmaculada; Rabadan, Mariano [Department of Urology, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa, Madrid (Spain)

2011-12-01

Purpose: To analyze long-term outcome and prognostic factors for high-risk prostate cancer defined by National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria treated with high-dose radiotherapy and androgen deprivation in a single institution. Methods and Materials: A total of 306 patients treated between 1995 and 2007 in a radiation dose-escalation program fulfilled the National Comprehensive Cancer Network high-risk criteria. Median International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements radiation dose was 78 Gy (range, 66.0-84.1 Gy). Long-term androgen deprivation (LTAD) was administered in 231 patients, short-term androgen deprivation (STAD) in 59 patients, and no hormones in 16 patients. The Phoenix (nadir plus 2 ng/mL) consensus definition was used for biochemical control. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the independent prognostic impact of clinical and treatment factors. Median follow-up time was 64 months (range, 24-171 months). Results: The actuarial overall survival at 5 and 10 years was 95.7% and 89.8%, respectively, and the corresponding biochemical disease-free survival (bDFS) was 89.5% and 67.2%, respectively. Fourteen patients (4.6%) developed distant metastasis. Multivariate analysis showed that Gleason score >7 (p = 0.001), pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level >20 ng/mL (p = 0.037), higher radiation dose (p = 0.005), and the use of adjuvant LTAD vs. STAD (p = 0.011) were independent prognostic factors affecting bDFS in high-risk disease. The 5-year bDFS for patients treated with LTAD plus radiotherapy dose >78 Gy was 97%. Conclusions: For high-risk patients the present series showed that the use of LTAD in conjunction with higher doses (>78 Gy) of radiotherapy was associated with improved biochemical tumor control. We observed that the presence of Gleason sum >7 and pretreatment PSA level >20 ng/mL in the same patient represents a 6.8 times higher risk of PSA failure. These men could be considered for clinical trials with

Long-term use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and the risk of myocardial infarction in the general population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

González-Pérez Antonio

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent data indicate that chronic use of coxibs leads to an increased occurrence of thrombotic cardiovascular events. This raises the question as to whether traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (tNSAIDs might also produce similar hazards. Our aim has been to evaluate the association between the chronic use of tNSAIDs and the risk of myocardial infarction (MI in patients. Methods We performed a nested case-control analysis with 4,975 cases of acute MI and 20,000 controls, frequency matched to cases by age, sex, and calendar year. Results Overall, current use of tNSAID was not associated with an increased risk of MI (RR:1.07;95%CI: 0.95–1.21. However, we found that the relative risk (RR of MI for durations of tNSAID treatment of >1 year was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.00–1.48. The corresponding RR was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.06–1.70 for non-fatal MI. The effect was independent from dose. The small risk associated with long-term use of tNSAIDs was observed among patients not taking low-dose aspirin (RR: 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01–1.65. The effect of long-term use for individual tNSAIDs ranged from a RR of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.47–1.62 with naproxen to 1.38 (95% CI, 1.00–1.90 with diclofenac. Conclusion This study adds support to the hypothesis that chronic treatment with some tNSAIDs is associated with a small increased risk of non-fatal MI. Our data are consistent with a substantial variability in cardiovascular risks between individual tNSAIDs.

Long term stability of power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kundur, P; Gao, B [Powertech Labs. Inc., Surrey, BC (Canada)

1994-12-31

Power system long term stability is still a developing subject. In this paper we provide our perspectives and experiences related to long term stability. The paper begins with the description of the nature of the long term stability problem, followed by the discussion of issues related to the modeling and solution techniques of tools for long term stability analysis. Cases studies are presented to illustrate the voltage stability aspect and plant dynamics aspect of long term stability. (author) 20 refs., 11 figs.

Assessment of the long-term risk of a meteorite impact on a hypothetical Canadian nuclear fuel waste disposal vault deep in plutonic rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wuschke, D.M.; Whitaker, S.H.; Goodwin, B.W.; Rasmussen, L.R.

1995-06-01

This report describes an assessment of the long-term radiological risk to an individual of the critical group that would result from a meteorite impact on a hypothetical reference disposal vault for used fuel, located 500 m below the Earth's surface. The purpose of the assessment was to determine if this radiological risk could exceed or approach the AECB risk criterion. (author). 47 refs., 5 tabs., 6 figs

Long-term antibiotics for prevention of recurrent urinary tract infection in older adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Haroon; Davies, Freya; Francis, Nick; Farewell, Daniel; Butler, Christoper; Paranjothy, Shantini

2017-05-29

To address clinical uncertainties about the effectiveness and safety of long-term antibiotic therapy for preventing recurrent urinary tract infections (UTIs) in older adults. Systematic review andmeta-analysis of randomised trials. We searched Medline, Embase, The Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature( CINAHL), and the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials from inception to August 2016. Eligible studies compared long-term antibiotic therapy with non-antibiotic therapy or placebo in men or women aged over 65, or in postmenopausal women, with recurrent UTIs. We did not identify any studies that included older men. Three randomised controlled trials compared long-term antibiotics with vaginal oestrogens (n=150), oral lactobacilli (n=238) and D-mannose powder (n=94) in postmenopausal women. Long-term antibiotics reduced the risk of UTI recurrence by 24% (three trials, n=482; pooled risk ratio (RR) 0.76; 95% CI 0.61 to 0.95, number needed to treat=8.5). There was no statistically significant increase in risk of adverse events (mild adverse events: pooled RR 1.52; 95% CI 0.76 to 3.03; serious adverse events: pooled RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.31 to 2.66). One trial showed 90% of urinary and faecal Escherichia coli isolates were resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole after 1 month of prophylaxis. Findings from three small trials with relatively short follow-up periods suggest long-term antibiotic therapy reduces the risk of recurrence in postmenopausal women with recurrent UTI. We did not identify any evidence to inform several clinically important scenarios including, benefits and harms in older men or frail care home residents, optimal duration of prophylaxis, recurrence rates once prophylaxis stops and effects on urinary antibiotic resistance. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Long-term use of metformin and colorectal cancer risk in type II diabetics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cardel, Majken; Jensen, S. M.; Pottegård, Anton

2014-01-01

of prescriptions for a cumulative dose of 2000 g within 5 years prior to the index date. To control for potential confounders, we used unconditional logistic regression. We generated adjusted odds ratios (OR) for the association between metformin and CRC and performed subanalyses for selected subgroups...... and for the dose-response relation. We identified 2088 cases and 9060 controls during the study period. The association between long-term metformin use and CRC gave an adjusted OR at 0.83 (95% CI 0.68-1.00). A protective effect on CRC with long-term use of metformin was only evident for women (OR 0.66 vs. 0.......99 for men). There was a significant dose-response association of metformin use > 250 defined daily dose (DDD) and for the duration of metformin use > 1 year. We found an indication of a protective effect of long-term metformin use against CRC in type II diabetics, although this effect was only seen in women....

Short-Term Expectation Formation Versus Long-Term Equilibrium Conditions: The Danish Housing Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Hetland

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The primary contribution of this paper is to establish that the long-swings behavior observed in the market price of Danish housing since the 1970s can be understood by studying the interplay between short-term expectation formation and long-run equilibrium conditions. We introduce an asset market model for housing based on uncertainty rather than risk, which under mild assumptions allows for other forms of forecasting behavior than rational expectations. We test the theory via an I(2 cointegrated VAR model and find that the long-run equilibrium for the housing price corresponds closely to the predictions from the theoretical framework. Additionally, we corroborate previous findings that housing markets are well characterized by short-term momentum forecasting behavior. Our conclusions have wider relevance, since housing prices play a role in the wider Danish economy, and other developed economies, through wealth effects.

Risk-adjusted impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth for long-term investment.

Science.gov (United States)

Guillén, Montserrat; Jarner, Søren Fiig; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Pérez-Marín, Ana M

2014-01-01

The impact of administrative costs on the distribution of terminal wealth is approximated using a simple formula applicable to many investment situations. We show that the reduction in median returns attributable to administrative fees is usually at least twice the amount of the administrative costs charged for most investment funds, when considering a risk-adjustment correction over a reasonably long-term time horizon. The example we present covers a number of standard cases and can be applied to passive investments, mutual funds, and hedge funds. Our results show investors the potential losses they face in performance due to administrative costs.

Long-term outcome of craniopharyngioma in children. A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamiya, Takashi; Okada, Masaki; Miyake, Keisuke; Kawai, Nobuyuki

2011-01-01

The treatment for pediatric craniopharyngioma remains challenging and controversial. Although this tumor is histologically benign, the treatments include radical surgery, conservative surgery, radiotherapy, intracystic chemotherapy and multimodality approaches. In addition, the long-term functional outcomes including visual function, endocrine function, cognitive function, hypothalamic function, and quality of life are complex and major problems among survivors. In this paper, we reviewed the recent treatments for pediatric craniopharyngioma and the long-term outcomes after treatment in literatures. (author)

Single-living is associated with increased risk of long-term mortality among employed patients with acute myocardial infarction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Finn Erl

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Finn Erland Nielsen, Shan MardDepartment of Cardiology S, Herlev University Hospital, DenmarkObjective: There is conflicting evidence about the impact of social support on adverse outcome after acute myocardial infarction (MI. We examined the relation between single-living and long-term all-cause mortality after MI.Design: A prospective cohort study of 242 employed patients with MI followed up to 16 years after MI.Results: A total of 106 (43.8% patients died during the follow-up. Single-living nearly doubled the risk of death; after adjusting for potential confounding factors, single-living was an independent predictor of death, with a hazard ratio of 2.55 (95% confidence interval: 1.52–4.30. Other predictors of death were diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, age, and ejection fraction less than 35%.Conclusion: Single-living is a prognostic determinant of long-term all-cause mortality after MI.Keywords: acute myocardial infarction, social support, single-living, prognosis.

Long-Term Recurrent Subarachnoid Hemorrhage After Adequate Coiling Versus Clipping of Ruptured Intracranial Aneurysms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaafsma, Joanna D.; Sprengers, Marieke E.; van Rooij, Willem Jan; Sluzewski, Menno; Majoie, Charles B. L. M.; Wermer, Marieke J. H.; Rinkel, Gabriel J. E.

Background and Purpose-Coiling is increasingly used as treatment for intracranial aneurysms. Despite its favorable short-term outcome, concerns exist about long-term reopening and inherent risk of recurrent subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). We hypothesized a higher risk for recurrent SAH after adequate

Long-term management of the existing radioactive wastes and residues at the Niagara Falls Storage Site. Draft Environmental Impact Statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-08-01

The statement assesses and compares several alternatives for long-term management of the existing radioactive wastes and residues at the Niagara Falls Storage Site (NFSS), Lewiston, New York. The alternatives include: (1) no action (continued interim storage at NFSS within a diked and capped containment area), (2) long-term management at NFSS (improved containment, with or without modified form of the residues), (3) long-term management at other DOE sites (Hanford, Washington, or Oak Ridge, Tennessee), and (4) offsite management of the residues at Hanford or Oak Ridge and either leaving the wastes at NFSS or removing them for disposal in the ocean. In addition to alternatives analyzed in depth, several options are also considered, including: other modifications of residue form, modification of the basic conceptual designs, other containment design options, transportation routes, and transportation modes. The radiological health effects (primarily increased risk of cancer) associated with long-term management of the wastes and residues are expected to be smaller than the nonradiological risks of occupational and transportation-related injuries and deaths. During the action period, the risk is highest for workers if all wastes and residues are moved to Hanford. The risk is highest for the general public if the residues are moved to Hanford and the wastes are moved to the ocean. Dispersal of the slightly contaminated wastes in the ocean is not expected to result in any significant impacts on the ocean environment or pose any significant radiological risk to humans. For all alternatives, if controls ceased, there would be eventual dispersion of the radioactive materials to the environment. If it is assumed that all controls cease, predicted time for loss of covers over the buried materials ranges from several hundred years to more than two million years, depending on the use of the land surface

Path Hopping: An MTD Strategy for Long-Term Quantum-Safe Communication

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Reihaneh Safavi-Naini

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Moving target defense (MTD strategies have been widely studied for securing computer systems. We consider using MTD strategies to provide long-term cryptographic security for message transmission against an eavesdropping adversary who has access to a quantum computer. In such a setting, today’s widely used cryptographic systems including Diffie-Hellman key agreement protocol and RSA cryptosystem will be insecure and alternative solutions are needed. We will use a physical assumption, existence of multiple communication paths between the sender and the receiver, as the basis of security, and propose a cryptographic system that uses this assumption and an MTD strategy to guarantee efficient long-term information theoretic security even when only a single path is not eavesdropped. Following the approach of Maleki et al., we model the system using a Markov chain, derive its transition probabilities, propose two security measures, and prove results that show how to calculate these measures using transition probabilities. We define two types of attackers that we call risk-taking and risk-averse and compute our proposed measures for the two types of adversaries for a concrete MTD strategy. We will use numerical analysis to study tradeoffs between system parameters, discuss our results, and propose directions for future research.

Long-term psychological functioning of adults with severe congenital facial disfigurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Versnel, Sarah L; Plomp, Raul G; Passchier, Jan; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J; Mathijssen, Irene M J

2012-01-01

In adults with severe congenital facial disfigurement, assessment of long-term psychological impact remains limited. This study determines the long-term psychological functioning in these patients and evaluates differences compared with patients with acquired facial disfigurement and a non-facially disfigured reference group. Also explored is the extent to which psychological functioning of the congenital group is related to satisfaction with facial appearance, fear of negative appearance evaluation by others, self-esteem, and severity of the facial deformity. Fifty-nine adults with severe congenital facial disfigurement, 59 adults with a traumatically acquired facial deformity in adulthood, and 120 non-facially disfigured adults completed standardized psychological, physical, and demographic questionnaires, including the Fear of Negative Appearance Evaluation Scale, the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Achenbach Adult Self-Report, the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, and a visual analogue scale. Adults with severe congenital facial disfigurement had relatively normal psychological functioning but appeared more prone to internalizing problems than the non-facially disfigured adults. Compared with patients with an acquired facial deformity, the congenital group displayed fewer problems on the physical component score of quality of life only. Satisfaction with facial appearance, fear of negative appearance evaluation, and self-esteem were good predictors of the different aspects of psychological functioning, with the exception of the physical component score of quality of life. Improving satisfaction with facial appearance (by surgery), enhancing self-esteem, or lowering fear of negative appearance evaluation (by psychological support) may enhance long-term psychological functioning. Future research should focus on the individual patient and risk factors for maladjustment. Risk, II.

Preoperative White Matter Lesions Are Independent Predictors of Long-Term Survival after Internal Carotid Endarterectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niku Oksala

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Cerebral white matter lesions (WMLs predict long-term survival of conservatively treated acute stroke patients with etiology other than carotid stenosis. In carotid endarterectomy patients, WMLs are associated with severe carotid stenosis and unstable plaques, with the risk of perioperative complications and with increased 30-day perioperative risk of death. However, no data exist on their effect on postoperative long-term survival, a factor important when considering the net benefit from carotid endarterectomy. Whether this effect is independent of classical risk factors and indications for surgery is not known either. We hypothesized that WMLs could be evaluated from preoperative routine computed tomography (CT scans and are predictors of postoperative survival, independent of classical cardiovascular risk factors, indication category and degree of carotid stenosis. Methods: A total of 353 of 481 (73.4% consecutive patients subjected to carotid endarterectomy due to different indications, i.e. asymptomatic stenosis (n = 28, 7.9%, amaurosis fugax (n = 52, 14.7%, transient ischemic attack (n = 135, 38.2% or ischemic stroke (n = 138, 39.1%, from prospective vascular registries during the years 2001-2010 with digital preoperative CT scans, were included in the study. WMLs were rated by a radiologist (Wahlund criteria in a blinded fashion. Internal carotid artery (ICA stenoses were angiographically graded (Results: WML severity could be assessed with a substantial intraobserver agreement (Spearman's rho 0.843, p Conclusions: WMLs in a preoperative CT scan provide a substantially reliable estimate of postoperative long-term survival of carotid endarterectomy patients independent of currently used criteria, i.e. cardiovascular risk factors, indication category and degree of ipsilateral ICA stenosis.

Preeclampsia: long-term consequences for vascular health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amaral LM

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Lorena M Amaral, Mark W Cunningham Jr, Denise C Cornelius, Babbette LaMarca Department of Pharmacology, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson, MS, USA Abstract: Preeclampsia (PE is a pregnancy-specific syndrome and one of the leading causes of preterm birth, neonatal and maternal morbidity and mortality. This disease is characterized by new onset hypertension usually in the third trimester of pregnancy and is sometimes associated with proteinuria, although proteinuria is not a requirement for the diagnosis of PE. In developing countries, women have a higher risk of death due to PE than more affluent countries and one of the most frequent causes of death is high blood pressure and stroke. Although PE only affects approximately 2%–8% of pregnancies worldwide it is associated with severe complications such as eclampsia, hemorrhagic stroke, hemolysis, elevated liver enzymes and low platelets (HELLP syndrome, renal failure and pulmonary edema. Importantly, there is no “cure” for the disease except for early delivery of the baby and placenta, leaving PE a health care risk for babies born from PE moms. In addition, PE is linked to the development of cardiovascular disease and stroke in women after reproductive age, leaving PE a risk factor for long-term health in women. This review will highlight factors implicated in the pathophysiology of PE that may contribute to long-term effects in women with preeclamptic pregnancies. Keywords: preeclampsia, endothelial dysfunction, AT1-AA, CD4+ T helper cells

Long-term outcomes of young people who attempted suicide

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grisham, Jessica R; Williams, Alishia D

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Suicidal behavior has increased since the onset of the global recession, a trend that may have long-term health and social implications. OBJECTIVE To test whether suicide attempts among young people signal increased risk for later poor health and social functioning above and beyond a

Hybrid Electricity Markets with Long-Term Risk-Sharing Arrangements: Adapting Market Design to Security of Supply and decarbonization Objectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ROQUES, Fabien; FINON, Dominique

2017-01-01

The re-emergence of policy interventionism in electricity markets raises questions as to how market design can best be adapted to meeting the investment challenge associated with security of supply (SoS) and decarbonization objectives. This paper takes an institutionalist approach in terms of modularity of the market design, and reviews the standard historical approach towards competitive markets, in order to analyse the roles and interactions of the initial and additional market 'modules'. We argue that a number of additional modules is required to achieve long-term policy objectives, such as decarbonization and security of supply (SoS). But, in turn, they destabilise the initial modules of the market design, in particular by the entries of renewables. We review the international experience with hybrid market design and draw a number of policy recommendations at to best practices, as well as suggesting ways in which the initial market modules can be improved to prevent inconsistencies with the new modules. The move towards a hybrid market regime, which relies on a combination of planning, long-term risk sharing arrangements and improved markets entrenched in a function of short-term coordination, appears to be unavoidable where decarbonization policies are adopted. (authors)

Long-term course of opioid addiction.

Science.gov (United States)

Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

2015-01-01

Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

The long-term power purchase: Recovery of capacity costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cross, P.S.

1990-01-01

As electric utilities increase their reliance on the long-term power purchase as an alternative to utility-owned generation, the appropriate rate treatment of the costs established in the purchase agreement assumes growing importance. In the November 9, 1989, issue, the authors examined the recent trend among state regulators to treat the long-term purchase in a manner similar to the addition by a utility of a new plant, including a full-scale prudence review. This installment will review recent rulings on the related issue of rate recovery of long-term capacity costs through the fuel cost adjustment clause

Strategic Planning and the Long-term R&D Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooley, J.

2015-01-01

The Department of Safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency implements a structured strategic planning process to ensure that safeguards will continue to be both effective and efficient in the future. This process provides the Department with a comprehensive and coherent planning framework for the short (2 years), medium (6 years) and long (12 years) term. The Department's suite of planning documents includes a long-term strategic plan and an associated long-term research and development plan as well as a biennial development and implementation support programme. The Department's Long-Term Strategic Plan 2012-2023 addresses the conceptual framework for safeguards implementation, legal authority, technical capabilities (expertise, equipment and infrastructure) and the human and financial resources necessary for Agency verification activities. As research and development (R&D) are essential to meet the safeguards needs of the future, the Department-s Long-Term R&D Plan 2012-2023 is designed to support the Long-Term Strategic Plan 2012-2023 by setting out the capabilities that the Department needs to achieve its strategic objectives, and key milestones towards achieving those capabilities for which Member State R&D support is needed. The Long-Term R&D Plan 2012-2023 addresses the Department's R&D requirements in areas such as safeguards concepts and approaches; detection of undeclared nuclear material and activities; safeguards equipment and communication; information technology, collection, analysis and security; analytical services; new mandates; and training. Long-term capabilities discussed in the presentation include deployed systems (e.g., equipment at facilities); analytical (e.g., sample analysis), operational (e.g., staff expertise and skills) and readiness (e.g., safeguarding new types of facilities) capabilities. To address near-term development objectives and support the implementation of its verification activities as well as to

Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Ming Cheng

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study applies an integrated methodology to assess short-term over-levee risk and long-term water shortage risk in the Da-Han Creek basin, which is the most important flood control and water storage system in northern Taiwan. An optimization model for reservoir flood control and water supply is adopted, to determine reservoir releases based on synthetic inflow hydrographs during typhoons, which are generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The release is then used to calculate the water level at a downstream control point using a novel developed back-propagation neural network-based model, to reduce computational complexity and achieve automatic-efficient risk evaluation. The calculated downstream water levels and final reservoir water levels after a typhoon event are used to evaluate the mapped over-levee risk and water shortage risk, respectively. The results showed that the different upper limit settings for the reservoir have a significant influence on the variation of 1.19 × 10−5% to 75.6% of the water shortage risk. This occurs because of the insufficient inflow and narrow storage capacity of the Shih-Men Reservoir during drought periods. However, the upper limit settings have a minor influence (with a variation of only 0.149% to 0.157% on the over-levee risk in typhoon periods, because of the high protection standards for the downstream embankment.

Long-term efficacy of an ergonomics program that includes patient-handling devices on reducing musculoskeletal injuries to nursing personnel.

Science.gov (United States)

Garg, Arun; Kapellusch, Jay M

2012-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term efficacy of an ergonomics program that included patient-handling devices in six long-term care facilities (LTC) and one chronic care hospital (CCH). Patient handling is recognized as a major source of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) among nursing personnel, and several studies have demonstrated effectiveness of patient-handling devices in reducing those MSDs. However, most studies have been conducted in a single facility, for a short period, and/or without a comprehensive ergonomics program. Patient-handling devices along with a comprehensive ergonomics program was implemented in six LTC facilities and one CCH. Pre- and postintervention injury data were collected for 38.9 months (range = 29 to 54 months) and 51.2 months (range = 36 to 60 months), respectively. Postintervention patient-handling injuries decreased by 59.8% (rate ratio [RR] = 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.28, 0.49], p nursing staff were fairly low. A vast majority of patients found the devices comfortable and safe. Longer transfer times with the use of devices was not an issue. Implementation of patient-handling devices along with a comprehensive program can be effective in reducing MSDs among nursing personnel. Strategies to expand usage of patient-handling devices in most health care settings should be explored.

Long-term care financing: lessons from France.

Science.gov (United States)

Doty, Pamela; Nadash, Pamela; Racco, Nathalie

2015-06-01

POLICY POINTS: France's model of third-party coverage for long-term services and supports (LTSS) combines a steeply income-adjusted universal public program for people 60 or older with voluntary supplemental private insurance. French and US policies differ: the former pay cash; premiums are lower; and take-up rates are higher, in part because employer sponsorship, with and without subsidization, is more common-but also because coverage targets higher levels of need and pays a smaller proportion of costs. Such inexpensive, bare-bones private coverage, especially if marketed as a supplement to a limited public benefit, would be more affordable to those Americans currently most at risk of "spending down" to Medicaid. An aging population leads to a growing demand for long-term services and supports (LTSS). In 2002, France introduced universal, income-adjusted, public long-term care coverage for adults 60 and older, whereas the United States funds means-tested benefits only. Both countries have private long-term care insurance (LTCI) markets: American policies create alternatives to out-of-pocket spending and protect purchasers from relying on Medicaid. Sales, however, have stagnated, and the market's viability is uncertain. In France, private LTCI supplements public coverage, and sales are growing, although its potential to alleviate the long-term care financing problem is unclear. We explore whether France's very different approach to structuring public and private financing for long-term care could inform the United States' long-term care financing reform efforts. We consulted insurance experts and conducted a detailed review of public reports, academic studies, and other documents to understand the public and private LTCI systems in France, their advantages and disadvantages, and the factors affecting their development. France provides universal public coverage for paid assistance with functional dependency for people 60 and older. Benefits are steeply income

Long-term health effects among testicular cancer survivors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashibe, Mia; Abdelaziz, Sarah; Al-Temimi, Mohammed; Fraser, Alison; Boucher, Kenneth M; Smith, Ken; Lee, Yuan-Chin Amy; Rowe, Kerry; Rowley, Braden; Daurelle, Micky; Holton, Avery E; VanDerslice, James; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Bishoff, Jay; Lowrance, Will; Stroup, Antoinette

2016-12-01

Testicular cancer is diagnosed at a young age and survival rates are high; thus, the long-term effects of cancer treatment need to be assessed. Our objectives are to estimate the incidence rates and determinants of late effects in testicular cancer survivors. We conducted a population-based cohort study of testicular cancer survivors, diagnosed 1991-2007, followed up for a median of 10 years. We identified 785 testicular cancer patients who survived ≥5 years and 3323 men free of cancer for the comparison group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to compare the hazard ratio between the cases and the comparison group and for internal analysis among case patients. Testicular cancer survivors experienced a 24 % increase in risk of long-term health effects >5 years after diagnosis. The overall incidence rate of late effects among testicular cancer survivors was 66.3 per 1000 person years. Higher risks were observed among testicular cancer survivors for hypercholesterolemia, infertility, and orchitis. Chemotherapy and retroperitoneal lymph node dissection appeared to increase the risk of late effects. Being obese prior to cancer diagnosis appeared to be the strongest factor associated with late effects. Testicular cancer survivors were more likely to develop chronic health conditions when compared to cancer-free men. While the late effects risk was increased among testicular cancer survivors, the incidence rates of late effects after cancer diagnosis was fairly low.

Long-term urethral catheterisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

Risk Analysis of the Long-Term Outcomes of the Surgical Closure of Secundum Atrial Septal Defects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Rae Kim

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Background: Closure of a secundum atrial septal defect (ASD is possible through surgical intervention or device placement. During surgical intervention, concomitant pathologies are corrected. The present study was conducted to investigate the outcomes of surgical ASD closure, to determine the risk factors of mortality, and establish the effects of concomitant disease correction. Methods: Between October 1989 and October 2009, 693 adults underwent surgery for secundum ASD. Their mean age was 40.9±13.1 years, and 199 (28.7% were male. Preoperatively, atrial fibrillation was noted in 39 patients (5.6% and significant tricuspid regurgitation (TR in 137 patients (19.8%. The mean follow-up duration was 12.4±4.7 years. Results: There was no 30-day mortality. The 1-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year survival rates were 99.4%, 96.8%, 94.5%, and 81.6%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, significant preoperative TR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 3.16; p=0.023 and preoperative age (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.06; p=0.001 were independent risk factors for late mortality. The TR grade significantly decreased after ASD closure with tricuspid repair. However, in patients with more than mild TR, repair was not associated with improved long-term survival (p=0.518. Conclusion: Surgical ASD closure is safe. Significant preoperative TR and age showed a strong negative correlation with survival. Our data showed that tricuspid valve repair improved the TR grade effectively. However, no effect on long-term survival was found. Therefore, early surgery before the development of significant TR mat be beneficial for improving postoperative survival.

Specific immunotherapy has long-term preventive effect of seasonal and perennial asthma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, L; Niggemann, B; Dreborg, S

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: 3-year subcutaneous specific immunotherapy (SIT) in children with seasonal allergic rhinoconjunctivitis reduced the risk of developing asthma during treatment and 2 years after discontinuation of SIT (5-year follow-up) indicating long-term preventive effect of SIT. OBJECTIVE: We......: Specific immunotherapy has long-term clinical effects and the potential of preventing development of asthma in children with allergic rhino conjunctivitis up to 7 years after treatment termination....

Prenatal exposure to gestational diabetes mellitus as an independent risk factor for long-term neuropsychiatric morbidity of the offspring.

Science.gov (United States)

Nahum Sacks, Kira; Friger, Michael; Shoham-Vardi, Ilana; Abokaf, Hanaa; Spiegel, Efrat; Sergienko, Ruslan; Landau, Daniella; Sheiner, Eyal

2016-09-01

The reported rates of gestational diabetes mellitus are constantly escalating and little is known about long-term complications in the offspring. Evidence from the field of epigenetics strongly advocates the need for research on the neuropsychiatric complications in offspring prenatally exposed to gestational diabetes mellitus. We sought to assess whether in utero exposure to gestational diabetes mellitus increases the risk of long-term neuropsychiatric morbidity in the offspring. A population-based cohort study compared the incidence of hospitalizations due to neuropsychiatric disease between singletons exposed and unexposed to gestational diabetes mellitus. Deliveries occurred in the years 1991 through 2014 in a regional tertiary medical center. Perinatal deaths, multiple gestations, mothers with pregestational diabetes or lack of prenatal care, and children with congenital malformations were excluded from the study. A multivariate generalized estimating equation logistic regression model analysis was used to control for confounders and for maternal clusters. During the study period 231,271 deliveries met the inclusion criteria; 5.4% of the births were to mothers diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus (n = 12,642), of these 4.3% had gestational diabetes type A1 (n = 10,076) and 1.1% had gestational diabetes type A2 (n = 2566). During the follow-up period, a significant linear association was noted between the severity of the gestational diabetes (no gestational diabetes, gestational diabetes mellitus A1, gestational diabetes mellitus A2) and neuropsychiatric disease of the offspring (1.02% vs 1.36% vs 1.68%, respectively, P gestational diabetes mellitus had higher cumulative incidence of neuropsychiatric morbidity. Using a generalized estimating equation multivariable logistic regression model, controlling for time-to-event, maternal age, gestational age at delivery, maternal obesity, maternal preeclampsia and fertility treatments, maternal gestational

Short- and long-term health consequences of sleep disruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Medic, Goran; Wille, Micheline; Hemels, Michiel Eh

2017-01-01

Sleep plays a vital role in brain function and systemic physiology across many body systems. Problems with sleep are widely prevalent and include deficits in quantity and quality of sleep; sleep problems that impact the continuity of sleep are collectively referred to as sleep disruptions. Numerous factors contribute to sleep disruption, ranging from lifestyle and environmental factors to sleep disorders and other medical conditions. Sleep disruptions have substantial adverse short- and long-term health consequences. A literature search was conducted to provide a nonsystematic review of these health consequences (this review was designed to be nonsystematic to better focus on the topics of interest due to the myriad parameters affected by sleep). Sleep disruption is associated with increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, metabolic effects, changes in circadian rhythms, and proinflammatory responses. In otherwise healthy adults, short-term consequences of sleep disruption include increased stress responsivity, somatic pain, reduced quality of life, emotional distress and mood disorders, and cognitive, memory, and performance deficits. For adolescents, psychosocial health, school performance, and risk-taking behaviors are impacted by sleep disruption. Behavioral problems and cognitive functioning are associated with sleep disruption in children. Long-term consequences of sleep disruption in otherwise healthy individuals include hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease, weight-related issues, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and colorectal cancer. All-cause mortality is also increased in men with sleep disturbances. For those with underlying medical conditions, sleep disruption may diminish the health-related quality of life of children and adolescents and may worsen the severity of common gastrointestinal disorders. As a result of the potential consequences of sleep disruption, health care

Reassessing the long-term risk of suicide after a first episode of psychosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Rina; Murray, Robin M; Hotopf, Matthew; Allardyce, Judith; Jones, Peter B; Boydell, Jane

2010-12-01

The long-term risk of suicide after a first episode of psychosis is unknown because previous studies often have been based on prevalence cohorts, been biased to more severely ill hospitalized patients, extrapolated from a short follow-up time, and have made a distinction between schizophrenia and other psychoses. To determine the epidemiology of suicide in a clinically representative cohort of patients experiencing their first episode of psychosis. Retrospective inception cohort. Geographic catchment areas in London, England (between January 1, 1965, and December 31, 2004; n = 2056); Nottingham, England (between September 1, 1997, and August 31, 1999; n = 203); and Dumfries and Galloway, Scotland (between January 1, 1979, and December 31, 1998; n = 464). All 2723 patients who presented for the first time to secondary care services with psychosis in the 3 defined catchment areas were traced after a mean follow-up period of 11.5 years. Deaths by suicide and open verdicts according to the International Classification of Diseases (seventh through tenth editions). The case fatality from suicide was considerably lower than expected from previous studies (1.9% [53/2723]); the proportionate mortality was 11.9% (53/444). Although the rate of suicide was highest in the first year after presentation, risk persisted late into follow-up, with a median time to suicide of 5.6 years. Suicide occurred approximately 12 times more than expected from the general population of England and Wales (standardized mortality ratio, 11.65; 95% confidence interval, 8.73-15.24), and 49 of the 53 suicides were excess deaths. Even a decade after first presentation-a time when there may be less intense clinical monitoring of risk-suicide risk remained almost 4 times higher than in the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 3.92; 95% confidence interval, 2.22-6.89). The highest risk of suicide after a psychotic episode occurs soon after presentation, yet physicians should still be

2003 Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Program Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Radioactive waste was created by the Federal Government and private industry at locations around the country in support of national defense, research, and civilian power-generation programs. If not controlled, much of this legacy waste would remain hazardous to human health and the environment indefinitely. Current technology does not allow us to render this waste harmless, so the available methods to control risk rely on consolidation, isolation, and long-term management of the waste. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has an obligation to safely control the radioactive waste and to inform and train future generations to maintain and, perhaps, improve established protections. DOE is custodian for much of the radioactive and other hazardous waste under control of the Federal Government. DOE established the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) in 1974 and the Defense Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) Program and the Surplus Facilities Management Program in the 1980s. Congress passed the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) in 1978. These federal programs and legislation were established to identify, remediate, and manage legacy waste. Remedial action is considered complete at a radioactive waste site when the identified hazardous material is isolated and the selected remedial action remedy is in place and functioning. Radioactive or other hazardous materials remain in place as part of the remedy at many DOE sites. Long-term management of radioactive waste sites incorporates a set of actions necessary to maintain protection of human health and the environment. These actions include maintaining physical impoundment structures in good repair to ensure that they perform as designed, preventing exposure to the wastes by maintaining access restrictions and warnings, and recording site conditions and activities for future custodians. Any actions, therefore, that will prevent exposure to the radioactive waste now or in the future

2003 Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Program Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2004-07-01

Radioactive waste was created by the Federal Government and private industry at locations around the country in support of national defense, research, and civilian power-generation programs. If not controlled, much of this legacy waste would remain hazardous to human health and the environment indefinitely. Current technology does not allow us to render this waste harmless, so the available methods to control risk rely on consolidation, isolation, and long-term management of the waste. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has an obligation to safely control the radioactive waste and to inform and train future generations to maintain and, perhaps, improve established protections. DOE is custodian for much of the radioactive and other hazardous waste under control of the Federal Government. DOE established the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) in 1974 and the Defense Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) Program and the Surplus Facilities Management Program in the 1980s. Congress passed the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) in 1978. These federal programs and legislation were established to identify, remediate, and manage legacy waste. Remedial action is considered complete at a radioactive waste site when the identified hazardous material is isolated and the selected remedial action remedy is in place and functioning. Radioactive or other hazardous materials remain in place as part of the remedy at many DOE sites. Long-term management of radioactive waste sites incorporates a set of actions necessary to maintain protection of human health and the environment. These actions include maintaining physical impoundment structures in good repair to ensure that they perform as designed, preventing exposure to the wastes by maintaining access restrictions and warnings, and recording site conditions and activities for future custodians. Any actions, therefore, that will prevent exposure to the radioactive waste now or in the future

Long Term Inactive Well Program requirements : interim directive ID 97-08

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board and the petroleum industry have agreed that industry must take proactive measures to reduce the number of long term inactive wells in Alberta. This interim directive outlines the requirements of the Long Term Inactive Well Program, and provides a schedule for industry to reduce the number of inactive wells. EUB estimates that there are currently 35,000 inactive wells in Alberta, 10,000 of which have been inactive for more than 10 consecutive years. These wells pose a financial risk to the Abandonment Fund which was established to help fund the abandonment of orphan wells. The Long Term Inactive Well Program was created based on the recommendations of a joint government/industry committee, and will operate for five years. 5 tabs

Radiation dose and long term risk of cardiac pathology following radiotherapy and anthracyclin for a childhood cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guldner, Laurence; Haddy, Nadia; Pein, Francois; Diallo, Ibrahima; Shamsaldin, Akthar; Dahan, Michel; Lebidois, Jerome; Merlet, Pascal; Villain, Elisabeth; Sidi, Daniel; Sakiroglu, Olivia; Hartmann, Olivier; Leftakopoulos, Dimitri; Vathaire, Florent de

2006-01-01

Purpose: To determine the cardiac status in children 15 years (yrs) or more after a solid tumour treatment. Patients and Methods: Of the 447 patients, 229 were fully studied and 218 were not. The following cardiac evaluation was proposed to all the 447 consecutive patients: (1) cardiac Doppler US by one of two expert cardiologists; (2) cardiac rhythm and conduction abnormalities including 24-h holter ECG; (3) 131 I-mIBG myocardial scintigraphy; (4) serum brain natriuretic peptide levels at rest; (5) an exercise test with VO 2 max measurement. The radiation dose delivered to 7 points in the heart was estimated for all patients who had received radiotherapy. Results: Cardiac disorder was diagnosed in 89 evaluated patients (39%) including 24 heart failures and 65 other asymptomatic cardiac diseases. When adjusting on potential confounders, cardiac disorder and cardiac failure risks were respectively linear (ERR at 1 Gy: 26%) and linear-quadratic (ERR at 1 Gy: 19%) functions of the average radiation dose received to the heart. No interaction between cumulative dose of adriamycin and average radiation dose was evidenced for cardiac disorders, but the ERR/Gy of cardiac failure was higher for patients receiving less than 350 mg/m 2 of Adriamycin. Conclusion: Long term heart pathologies are probably one of the major iatrogenic risks encored by patients who survived a childhood cancer. This study strongly emphasizes the need to limit the heart irradiation during radiotherapy, particularly, for patients who also received or were susceptible to later received adriamycin

Long-term care policy for older Americans: building a continuum of care.

Science.gov (United States)

Palley, Howard A

2003-01-01

This paper deals primarily with social policy considerations relevant to the development of long-term care policy for the frail elderly in the United States. However, it also includes some commentary on meeting the acute care needs of the frail elderly. It defines chronic care treatment as a mix of "short-term" and "long-term" modes of care. Furthermore, it explores the need for treatment of such long-term illnesses to recognize the importance of alternative modes of caring which include strategies, both medical and nonmedical, delivered within and outside of hospitals and nursing homes. The paper includes an analysis of public and private sector priorities based in data published by the U.S. Health Care Financing Administration. It also includes some discussion of the PACE program in the United States and some other efforts to stimulate more in-home and community-based alternatives to nursing home care. Furthermore, it includes a discussion of the policy goal of "appropriateness" in developing long-term care (as well as general health priorities) and provides a critical discussion of problems with utilizing "cost/benefit analysis." The study concludes that too exclusive a focus on nursing home care for the elderly in the United States is unfortunate-both in terms of the desires of the elderly, their families and friends and in terms of focusing on "appropriateness" as a legitimate policy goal in the development of long-term care policy for the elderly in the United States.

Risk of Symptomatic Stroke After Radiation Therapy for Childhood Cancer: A Long-Term Follow-Up Cohort Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dijk, Irma W.E.M. van; Pal, Helena J.H. van der; Os, Rob M. van; Roos, Yvo B.W.E.M.; Sieswerda, Elske; Dalen, Elvira C. van; Ronckers, Cécile M.; Oldenburger, Foppe; Leeuwen, Flora E. van; Caron, Huib N.; Koning, Caro C.E.; Kremer, Leontien C.M.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Long-term childhood cancer survivors are at high risk of late adverse effects, including stroke. We aimed to determine the cumulative incidence of clinically validated symptomatic stroke (transient ischemic attack [TIA], cerebral infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage [ICH]) and to quantify dose-effect relationships for cranial radiation therapy (CRT) and supradiaphragmatic radiation therapy (SDRT). Methods and Materials: Our single-center study cohort included 1362 survivors of childhood cancer that were diagnosed between 1966 and 1996. Prescribed CRT and SDRT doses were converted into the equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions (EQD_2). Multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyze the relationship between the EQD_2 and stroke. Results: After a median latency time of 24.9 years and at a median age of 31.2 years, 28 survivors had experienced a first stroke: TIA (n=5), infarction (n=13), and ICH (n=10). At an attained age of 45 years, the estimated cumulative incidences, with death as competing risk, among survivors treated with CRT only, SDRT only, both CRT and SDRT, and neither CRT nor SDRT were, respectively, 10.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5%-17.0%), 5.4% (95% CI, 0%-17.0%), 12.5% (95% CI, 5.5%-18.9%), and 0.1% (95% CI, 0%-0.4%). Radiation at both locations significantly increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner (hazard ratios: HR_C_R_T 1.02 Gy"−"1; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03, and HR_S_D_R_T 1.04 Gy"−"1; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05). Conclusions: Childhood cancer survivors treated with CRT, SDRT, or both have a high stroke risk. One in 8 survivors treated at both locations will have experienced a symptomatic stroke at an attained age of 45 years. Further research on the pathophysiologic processes involved in stroke in this specific group of patients is needed to enable the development of tailored secondary prevention strategies.

Risk of Symptomatic Stroke After Radiation Therapy for Childhood Cancer: A Long-Term Follow-Up Cohort Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dijk, Irma W.E.M. van, E-mail: i.w.vandijk@amc.uva.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Pal, Helena J.H. van der [Department of Medical Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Os, Rob M. van [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Roos, Yvo B.W.E.M. [Department of Neurology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Sieswerda, Elske [Department of Medical Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Dalen, Elvira C. van; Ronckers, Cécile M. [Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Oldenburger, Foppe [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Leeuwen, Flora E. van [Department of Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Caron, Huib N. [Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Koning, Caro C.E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kremer, Leontien C.M. [Department of Pediatric Oncology, Emma Children' s Hospital/Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2016-11-01

Purpose: Long-term childhood cancer survivors are at high risk of late adverse effects, including stroke. We aimed to determine the cumulative incidence of clinically validated symptomatic stroke (transient ischemic attack [TIA], cerebral infarction, and intracerebral hemorrhage [ICH]) and to quantify dose-effect relationships for cranial radiation therapy (CRT) and supradiaphragmatic radiation therapy (SDRT). Methods and Materials: Our single-center study cohort included 1362 survivors of childhood cancer that were diagnosed between 1966 and 1996. Prescribed CRT and SDRT doses were converted into the equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions (EQD{sub 2}). Multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyze the relationship between the EQD{sub 2} and stroke. Results: After a median latency time of 24.9 years and at a median age of 31.2 years, 28 survivors had experienced a first stroke: TIA (n=5), infarction (n=13), and ICH (n=10). At an attained age of 45 years, the estimated cumulative incidences, with death as competing risk, among survivors treated with CRT only, SDRT only, both CRT and SDRT, and neither CRT nor SDRT were, respectively, 10.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5%-17.0%), 5.4% (95% CI, 0%-17.0%), 12.5% (95% CI, 5.5%-18.9%), and 0.1% (95% CI, 0%-0.4%). Radiation at both locations significantly increased the risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner (hazard ratios: HR{sub CRT} 1.02 Gy{sup −1}; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03, and HR{sub SDRT} 1.04 Gy{sup −1}; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05). Conclusions: Childhood cancer survivors treated with CRT, SDRT, or both have a high stroke risk. One in 8 survivors treated at both locations will have experienced a symptomatic stroke at an attained age of 45 years. Further research on the pathophysiologic processes involved in stroke in this specific group of patients is needed to enable the development of tailored secondary prevention strategies.

A systematic review of potential long-term effects of sport-related concussion

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, Andrew J; Schneider, Kathryn J; Guskiewicz, Kevin M; Bailes, Julian; Cantu, Robert C; Castellani, Rudolph J; Turner, Michael; Jordan, Barry D; Randolph, Christopher; Dvořák, Jiří; Hayden, K. Alix; Tator, Charles H; McCrory, Paul; Iverson, Grant L

2017-01-01

Objective Systematic review of possible long-term effects of sports-related concussion in retired athletes. Data sources Ten electronic databases. Study selection Original research; incidence, risk factors or causation related to long-term mental health or neurological problems; individuals who have suffered a concussion; retired athletes as the subjects and possible long-term sequelae defined as >10 years after the injury. Data extraction Study population, exposure/outcome measures, clinical data, neurological examination findings, cognitive assessment, neuroimaging findings and neuropathology results. Risk of bias and level of evidence were evaluated by two authors. Results Following review of 3819 studies, 47 met inclusion criteria. Some former athletes have depression and cognitive deficits later in life, and there is an association between these deficits and multiple prior concussions. Former athletes are not at increased risk for death by suicide (two studies). Former high school American football players do not appear to be at increased risk for later life neurodegenerative diseases (two studies). Some retired professional American football players may be at increased risk for diminishment in cognitive functioning or mild cognitive impairment (several studies), and neurodegenerative diseases (one study). Neuroimaging studies show modest evidence of macrostructural, microstructural, functional and neurochemical changes in some athletes. Conclusion Multiple concussions appear to be a risk factor for cognitive impairment and mental health problems in some individuals. More research is needed to better understand the prevalence of chronic traumatic encephalopathy and other neurological conditions and diseases, and the extent to which they are related to concussions and/or repetitive neurotrauma sustained in sports. PMID:28455362

Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Field Sampling Plan for 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

T. Haney R. VanHorn

2007-01-01

This field sampling plan describes the field investigations planned for the Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Project at the Idaho National Laboratory Site in 2007. This plan and the Quality Assurance Project Plan for Waste Area Groups 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, and Removal Actions constitute the sampling and analysis plan supporting long-term ecological monitoring sampling in 2007. The data collected under this plan will become part of the long-term ecological monitoring data set that is being collected annually. The data will be used to determine the requirements for the subsequent long-term ecological monitoring. This plan guides the 2007 investigations, including sampling, quality assurance, quality control, analytical procedures, and data management. As such, this plan will help to ensure that the resulting monitoring data will be scientifically valid, defensible, and of known and acceptable quality

Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Field Sampling Plan for 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

T. Haney

2007-07-31

This field sampling plan describes the field investigations planned for the Long-Term Ecological Monitoring Project at the Idaho National Laboratory Site in 2007. This plan and the Quality Assurance Project Plan for Waste Area Groups 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, and Removal Actions constitute the sampling and analysis plan supporting long-term ecological monitoring sampling in 2007. The data collected under this plan will become part of the long-term ecological monitoring data set that is being collected annually. The data will be used t determine the requirements for the subsequent long-term ecological monitoring. This plan guides the 2007 investigations, including sampling, quality assurance, quality control, analytical procedures, and data management. As such, this plan will help to ensure that the resulting monitoring data will be scientifically valid, defensible, and of known and acceptable quality.

Long term effects of radiation in man

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tso Chih Ping; Idris Besar

1984-01-01

An overview of the long term effects of radiation in man is presented, categorizing into somatic effects, genetic effects and teratogenic effects, and including an indication of the problems that arise in their determination. (author)

Preventing pressure ulcers in long-term care: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, Ba'; Stern, Anita; Chen, Wendong; Sander, Beate; John-Baptiste, Ava; Thein, Hla-Hla; Gomes, Tara; Wodchis, Walter P; Bayoumi, Ahmed; Machado, Márcio; Carcone, Steven; Krahn, Murray

2011-11-14

Pressure ulcers are common in many care settings, with adverse health outcomes and high treatment costs. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of evidence-based strategies to improve current prevention practice in long-term care facilities. We used a validated Markov model to compare current prevention practice with the following 4 quality improvement strategies: (1) pressure redistribution mattresses for all residents, (2) oral nutritional supplements for high-risk residents with recent weight loss, (3) skin emollients for high-risk residents with dry skin, and (4) foam cleansing for high-risk residents requiring incontinence care. Primary outcomes included lifetime risk of stage 2 to 4 pressure ulcers, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and lifetime costs, calculated according to a single health care payer's perspective and expressed in 2009 Canadian dollars (Can$1 = US$0.84). Strategies cost on average $11.66 per resident per week. They reduced lifetime risk; the associated number needed to treat was 45 (strategy 1), 63 (strategy 4), 158 (strategy 3), and 333 (strategy 2). Strategy 1 and 4 minimally improved QALYs and reduced the mean lifetime cost by $115 and $179 per resident, respectively. The cost per QALY gained was approximately $78 000 for strategy 3 and $7.8 million for strategy 2. If decision makers are willing to pay up to $50 000 for 1 QALY gained, the probability that improving prevention is cost-effective is 94% (strategy 4), 82% (strategy 1), 43% (strategy 3), and 1% (strategy 2). The clinical and economic evidence supports pressure redistribution mattresses for all long-term care residents. Improving prevention with perineal foam cleansers and dry skin emollients appears to be cost-effective, but firm conclusions are limited by the available clinical evidence.

Cardiovascular diseases mortality following cancer during childhood: long term risk, role of chemotherapy and of radiation dose to heart and brain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tukenova, Markhaba; Guibout, Catherine; Oberlin, Odile; Doyon, Francoise; Moussannif, Abdedaid; Haddy, Nadia; Diallo, Ibrahima; Vathaire, Florent de; Pacquement, Helene; Hawkins, Mike; Winter, Dave

2008-01-01

Full text: Background: A multi-centric French-UK cohort study was performed to evaluate the role of treatment in the long-term overall and cause-specific mortality among childhood cancer survivors. Methods: This study cohort included 4,120 patients treated for a solid tumours before the age of 17 between 1942-1986, in 8 centres in France and UK and who survived at least 5 years from diagnosis. Detailed clinical and therapeutic data were extracted for each patients from medical records. For 2868 of the 2868 patients who received radiotherapy, radiation doses were estimated using DOS E G software at 188 anatomical sites, including heart (7 sites) and lungs (10 sites). We obtained the death causes of 95 % of dead patients. Overall and cause-specific mortality standardized ratios (SMR), absolute excess risk (AER) of death were studied using Poisson regression. Results: 603 patients died during the follow-up, i.e. 8.5-fold (95 % CI: 7.7-9.1) more than that expected in the general population. A total of 32 patients died of cardiovascular diseases, i.e. 4.8-fold (95 % CI, 3.3 to 6.7) more than expected, 21 of which were cardiac diseases, i.e. 6.0-fold more (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.0). Overall, patients who had received radiotherapy had a 5.4-fold (95% CI, 1.5 to 32.1) higher risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease than those who had not. Mortality due to cardiac disease was related to the administration of alkylating agents and / or vinca alkaloids, and to that of anthracyclines. Each additional 100 mg of anthracyclines per m 2 of body surface area increased the mortality rate due to heart diseases by 92% (95% CI, 16% to 318%). Patients who had received between 5 to 14.9 Gy to the heart during radiotherapy had a 14.5-fold (95% CI, 2.0 to 291) higher risk of mortality from cardiac diseases than patients who had not received radiotherapy, this ratio being 32.6 (95% CI, 5.6 to 622) in those who had received more than 15 Gy. Conclusion: Childhood cancer survivors are at high

Cancer risk in long-term users of valproate: a population-based case-control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hallas, Jesper; Friis, Søren; Bjerrum, Lars

2009-01-01

logistic regression. RESULTS: Among the cases and controls, 81 (0.05%) and 260 (0.04%), respectively, were long-term users of valproate. For cancer overall, the crude and adjusted odds ratios were 1.25 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.97-1.60] and 1.21 (95% CI, 0.95-1.56), respectively. Subgroup...... analyses revealed no dose or duration effect for overall cancer incidence, and no specific cancer site was found to be inversely associated with long-term use of valproate. For lung cancer, we found a positive but imprecise association (adjusted odds ratio, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.12-4.79). CONCLUSION: Long...

Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

2018-02-01

Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Jacob; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Bjørner, Jakob

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long...... data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness...... of recession (2008-2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. RESULTS: In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved...

Meta-analyses: does long-term PPI use increase the risk of gastric premalignant lesions?

Science.gov (United States)

Eslami, Layli; Nasseri-Moghaddam, Siavosh

2013-08-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the most effective agents available for reducing acid secretion. They are used for medical treatment of various acid-related disorders. PPIs are used extensively and for extended periods of time in gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). A troublesome issue regarding maintenance therapy has been the propensity of PPI-treated patients to develop chronic atrophic gastritis while on therapy that could theoretically lead to an increased incidence of gastric cancer. In addition, animal studies have raised concern for development of enterochromaffin-like cell hyperplasia and carcinoid tumors in the stomachs of mice receiving high dose PPIs. Current literature does not provide a clear-cut conclusion on the subject and the reports are sometimes contradictory. Therefore, this study is a systematic review of the available literature to address the safety of long-term PPI use and its relation to the development of malignant/premalignant gastric lesions. A literature search of biomedical databases was performed. The reference lists of retrieved articles were reviewed to further identify relevant trials. We hand-searched the abstracts of the American Digestive Disease Week (DDW) and the United European Gastroenterology Week (UEGW) from 1995 to 2013. Only randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that used PPIs as the primary treatment for at least six month versus no treatment, placebo, antacid or anti-reflux surgery (ARS) were included. Two reviewers independently extracted the data. Discrepancies in the interpretation were resolved by consensus. All analyses of outcomes were based on the intention-to-treat principle. We performed statistical analysis using Review Manager software. The effect measure of choice was relative risk (RR) for dichotomous data. Six RCTs with a total of 785 patients met the inclusion criteria. Two multicenter RCTs compared Esomeprazole with placebo. One RCT compared omeprazole with ARS. Two RCTs compared omeprazole with

Long-Term Environmental Research Programs - Evolving Capacity for Discovery

Science.gov (United States)

Swanson, F. J.

2008-12-01

Long-term forestry, watershed, and ecological research sites have become critical, productive nodes for environmental science research and in some cases for work in the social sciences and humanities. The Forest Service's century-old Experimental Forests and Ranges and the National Science Foundation's 28- year-old Long-Term Ecological Research program have been remarkably productive in both basic and applied sciences, including characterization of acid rain and old-growth ecosystems and development of forest, watershed, and range management systems for commercial and other land use objectives. A review of recent developments suggests steps to enhance the function of collections of long-term research sites as interactive science networks. The programs at these sites have evolved greatly, especially over the past few decades, as the questions addressed, disciplines engaged, and degree of science integration have grown. This is well displayed by small, experimental watershed studies, which first were used for applied hydrology studies then more fundamental biogeochemical studies and now examination of complex ecosystem processes; all capitalizing on the legacy of intensive studies and environmental monitoring spanning decades. In very modest ways these collections of initially independent sites have functioned increasingly as integrated research networks addressing inter-site questions by using common experimental designs, being part of a single experiment, and examining long-term data in a common analytical framework. The network aspects include data sharing via publicly-accessible data-harvester systems for climate and streamflow data. The layering of one research or environmental monitoring network upon another facilitates synergies. Changing climate and atmospheric chemistry highlight a need to use these networks as continental-scale observatory systems for assessing the impacts of environmental change on ecological services. To better capitalize on long-term

The Long-Term Conditions Questionnaire: conceptual framework and item development.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Michele; Potter, Caroline M; Kelly, Laura; Hunter, Cheryl; Gibbons, Elizabeth; Jenkinson, Crispin; Coulter, Angela; Forder, Julien; Towers, Ann-Marie; A'Court, Christine; Fitzpatrick, Ray

2016-01-01

To identify the main issues of importance when living with long-term conditions to refine a conceptual framework for informing the item development of a patient-reported outcome measure for long-term conditions. Semi-structured qualitative interviews (n=48) were conducted with people living with at least one long-term condition. Participants were recruited through primary care. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed by thematic analysis. The analysis served to refine the conceptual framework, based on reviews of the literature and stakeholder consultations, for developing candidate items for a new measure for long-term conditions. Three main organizing concepts were identified: impact of long-term conditions, experience of services and support, and self-care. The findings helped to refine a conceptual framework, leading to the development of 23 items that represent issues of importance in long-term conditions. The 23 candidate items formed the first draft of the measure, currently named the Long-Term Conditions Questionnaire. The aim of this study was to refine the conceptual framework and develop items for a patient-reported outcome measure for long-term conditions, including single and multiple morbidities and physical and mental health conditions. Qualitative interviews identified the key themes for assessing outcomes in long-term conditions, and these underpinned the development of the initial draft of the measure. These initial items will undergo cognitive testing to refine the items prior to further validation in a survey.

Fluoroquinolone-resistant Escherichia coli carriage in long-term care facility.

Science.gov (United States)

Maslow, Joel N; Lee, Betsy; Lautenbach, Ebbing

2005-06-01

We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the prevalence of, and risk factors for, colonization with fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistant Escherichia coli in residents in a long-term care facility. FQ-resistant E. coli were identified from rectal swabs for 25 (51%) of 49 participants at study entry. On multivariable analyses, prior FQ use was the only independent risk factor for FQ-resistant E. coli carriage and was consistent for FQ exposures in the previous 3, 6, 9, or 12 months. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of FQ-resistant E. coli identified clonal spread of 1 strain among 16 residents. Loss (6 residents) or acquisition (7 residents) of FQ-resistant E. coli was documented and was associated with de novo colonization with genetically distinct strains. Unlike the case in the hospital setting, FQ-resistant E. coli carriage in long-term care facilities is associated with clonal spread.

Improved method for P and T strategy selection by long-term risk evaluation of nuclear energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Csom, G.; Feher, S.; Szieberth, M.

2001-01-01

The paper presents a detailed introduction of the presently used indicators of long-term risk, namely various concepts of radiotoxicity, analyses their advantages and disadvantages, and proposes further indicators called residual hazard and residual hazard index. In order to illustrate them, the time behavior of the relative radiotoxicity and the residual hazard index is investigated for a few representative cases. In the first one, conventional thermal and fast reactors, while in the second one molten salt reactors are investigated from the viewpoint of transmutation. The results shown indicate the usefulness of the application of the now proposed quantities. (author)

Long-Term Natural History of Adult Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome Patients Treated With and Without Catheter Ablation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bunch, T Jared; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler, Michael J; Jacobs, Victoria; Mallender, Charles; Muhlestein, Joseph B; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Weiss, J Peter; Day, John D

2015-12-01

There are a paucity of data about the long-term natural history of adult Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW) patients in regard to risk of mortality and atrial fibrillation. We sought to describe the long-term outcomes of WPW patients and ascertain the impact of ablation on the natural history. Three groups of patients were studied: 2 WPW populations (ablation: 872, no ablation: 1461) and a 1:5 control population (n=11 175). Long-term mortality and atrial fibrillation rates were determined. The average follow-up for the WPW group was 7.9±5.9 (median: 6.9) years and was similar between the ablation and nonablation groups. Death rates were similar between the WPW group versus the control group (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.11; P=0.56). Nonablated WPW patients had a higher long-term death risk compared with ablated WPW patients (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval: 1.50-20.93; P<0.0001). Incident atrial fibrillation risk was higher in the WPW group compared with the control population (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-1.87; P<0.0001). Nonablated WPW patients had lower risk than ablated patients (hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.53; P<0.0001). Long-term mortality rates in WPW patients are low and similar to an age-matched and gender-matched control population. WPW patients that underwent the multifactorial process of ablation had a lower mortality compared to nonablated WPW patients. Atrial fibrillation rates are high long-term, and ablation does not reduce this risk. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Post-stroke epilepsy in young adults: a long-term follow-up study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arntz, R.M.; Rutten-Jacobs, L.C.A.; Maaijwee, N.A.M.M.; Schoonderwaldt, H.C.; Dorresteijn, L.D.A.; Dijk, E.J. van; Leeuw, F.E. de

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the incidence and risk of seizures after stroke in young adults. Especially in the young seizures might dramatically influence prognosis and quality of life. We therefore investigated the long-term incidence and risk of post-stroke epilepsy in young adults with a

The importance of short-term off-target effects in estimating the long-term renal and cardiovascular protection of angiotensin receptor blockers