Formal Ontologies and Uncertainty. In Geographical Knowledge
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Matteo Caglioni
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Formal ontologies have proved to be a very useful tool to manage interoperability among data, systems and knowledge. In this paper we will show how formal ontologies can evolve from a crisp, deterministic framework (ontologies of hard knowledge to new probabilistic, fuzzy or possibilistic frameworks (ontologies of soft knowledge. This can considerably enlarge the application potential of formal ontologies in geographic analysis and planning, where soft knowledge is intrinsically linked to the complexity of the phenomena under study. The paper briefly presents these new uncertainty-based formal ontologies. It then highlights how ontologies are formal tools to define both concepts and relations among concepts. An example from the domain of urban geography finally shows how the cause-to-effect relation between household preferences and urban sprawl can be encoded within a crisp, a probabilistic and a possibilistic ontology, respectively. The ontology formalism will also determine the kind of reasoning that can be developed from available knowledge. Uncertain ontologies can be seen as the preliminary phase of more complex uncertainty-based models. The advantages of moving to uncertainty-based models is evident: whether it is in the analysis of geographic space or in decision support for planning, reasoning on geographic space is almost always reasoning with uncertain knowledge of geographic phenomena.
Towards a formal taxonomy of hybrid uncertainty representations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Joslyn, C.; Rocha, L.
1997-02-01
Recent years have seen a proliferation of methods in addition to probability theory to represent information and uncertainty, including fuzzy sets and systems, fuzzy measures, rough sets, random sets, possibility distributions, imprecise probabilities, etc. We can identify these fields collectively as General Information Theory. The components of GIT represent information according to different axiomatic bases, and are thus capable of capturing different semantic aspects of uncertainty. Traditionally, these semantic criteria include such categories as fuzziness, vagueness, nonspecificity, conflict, and randomness. So it is clear that there is a pressing need for the GIT community to synthesize these methods, searching out larger formal frameworks within which to place these various components with respect to each other. Ideally, syntactic (mathematical) generalization can both aid and be aided by the semantic analysis available in terms of the conceptual categories outlined above. In this paper we present some preliminary ideas about how to formally relate various uncertainty representations together in a taxonomic lattice, capturing both syntactic and semantic generalization. Some partial and provisional results are shown. Assume a simple finite universe of discourse {Omega} = (a, b, c). We want to describe a situation in which we ask a question of the sort {open_quotes}what is the value of a variable x which takes values in {Omega}?{close_quotes}. When there is no uncertainty, we have a single alternative, say x = a. In logical terms, we would say that the proposition p: {open_quotes}the value of x is a{close_quotes} is TRUE. Our approach begins with two primitive concepts which can change our knowledge of x, each of which represents a different form of uncertainty, nonspecificity and fuxxiness.
Formal modeling of a system of chemical reactions under uncertainty.
Ghosh, Krishnendu; Schlipf, John
2014-10-01
We describe a novel formalism representing a system of chemical reactions, with imprecise rates of reactions and concentrations of chemicals, and describe a model reduction method, pruning, based on the chemical properties. We present two algorithms, midpoint approximation and interval approximation, for construction of efficient model abstractions with uncertainty in data. We evaluate computational feasibility by posing queries in computation tree logic (CTL) on a prototype of extracellular-signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway.
Uncertainty principle in loop quantum cosmology by Moyal formalism
Perlov, Leonid
2018-03-01
In this paper, we derive the uncertainty principle for the loop quantum cosmology homogeneous and isotropic Friedmann-Lemaiter-Robertson-Walker model with the holonomy-flux algebra. The uncertainty principle is between the variables c, with the meaning of connection and μ having the meaning of the physical cell volume to the power 2/3, i.e., v2 /3 or a plaquette area. Since both μ and c are not operators, but rather the random variables, the Robertson uncertainty principle derivation that works for hermitian operators cannot be used. Instead we use the Wigner-Moyal-Groenewold phase space formalism. The Wigner-Moyal-Groenewold formalism was originally applied to the Heisenberg algebra of the quantum mechanics. One can derive it from both the canonical and path integral quantum mechanics as well as the uncertainty principle. In this paper, we apply it to the holonomy-flux algebra in the case of the homogeneous and isotropic space. Another result is the expression for the Wigner function on the space of the cylindrical wave functions defined on Rb in c variables rather than in dual space μ variables.
Han, Feng; Zheng, Yi
2018-06-01
Significant Input uncertainty is a major source of error in watershed water quality (WWQ) modeling. It remains challenging to address the input uncertainty in a rigorous Bayesian framework. This study develops the Bayesian Analysis of Input and Parametric Uncertainties (BAIPU), an approach for the joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties through a tight coupling of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The formal likelihood function for this approach is derived considering a lag-1 autocorrelated, heteroscedastic, and Skew Exponential Power (SEP) distributed error model. A series of numerical experiments were performed based on a synthetic nitrate pollution case and on a real study case in the Newport Bay Watershed, California. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(ZS)) were used as the representative WWQ model and MCMC algorithm, respectively. The major findings include the following: (1) the BAIPU can be implemented and used to appropriately identify the uncertain parameters and characterize the predictive uncertainty; (2) the compensation effect between the input and parametric uncertainties can seriously mislead the modeling based management decisions, if the input uncertainty is not explicitly accounted for; (3) the BAIPU accounts for the interaction between the input and parametric uncertainties and therefore provides more accurate calibration and uncertainty results than a sequential analysis of the uncertainties; and (4) the BAIPU quantifies the credibility of different input assumptions on a statistical basis and can be implemented as an effective inverse modeling approach to the joint inference of parameters and inputs.
Universal uncertainty principle in the measurement operator formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ozawa, Masanao
2005-01-01
Heisenberg's uncertainty principle has been understood to set a limitation on measurements; however, the long-standing mathematical formulation established by Heisenberg, Kennard, and Robertson does not allow such an interpretation. Recently, a new relation was found to give a universally valid relation between noise and disturbance in general quantum measurements, and it has become clear that the new relation plays a role of the first principle to derive various quantum limits on measurement and information processing in a unified treatment. This paper examines the above development on the noise-disturbance uncertainty principle in the model-independent approach based on the measurement operator formalism, which is widely accepted to describe a class of generalized measurements in the field of quantum information. We obtain explicit formulae for the noise and disturbance of measurements given by measurement operators, and show that projective measurements do not satisfy the Heisenberg-type noise-disturbance relation that is typical in the gamma-ray microscope thought experiments. We also show that the disturbance on a Pauli operator of a projective measurement of another Pauli operator constantly equals √2, and examine how this measurement violates the Heisenberg-type relation but satisfies the new noise-disturbance relation
Quantum time uncertainty in a gravity's rainbow formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Galan, Pablo; Marugan, Guillermo A. Mena
2004-01-01
The existence of a minimum time uncertainty is usually argued to be a consequence of the combination of quantum mechanics and general relativity. Most of the studies that point to this result are nonetheless based on perturbative quantization approaches, in which the effect of matter on the geometry is regarded as a correction to a classical background. In this paper, we consider rainbow spacetimes constructed from doubly special relativity by using a modification of the proposals of Magueijo and Smolin. In these models, gravitational effects are incorporated (at least to a certain extent) in the definition of the energy-momentum of particles without adhering to a perturbative treatment of the backreaction. In this context, we derive and compare the expressions of the time uncertainty in quantizations that use as evolution parameter either the background or the rainbow time coordinates. These two possibilities can be regarded as corresponding to perturbative and nonperturbative quantization schemes, respectively. We show that, while a nonvanishing time uncertainty is generically unavoidable in a perturbative framework, an infinite time resolution can in fact be achieved in a nonperturbative quantization for the whole family of doubly special relativity theories with unbounded physical energy
A first formal approach to animal spirits beyond uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gerasimos T. Soldatos
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Standard Macroeconomics treats animal spirits as a source of uncertainty disturbing otherwise rational expectations. But, Keynesian animal spirits ensue from suboptimal emotional responses to socioeconomic status change beyond matters of uncertainty. This paper identifies such spirits with the disturbance from the optimal decision-making implied by an emotional well-being utility function. The introduction of a policy-maker, holding its own view of private welfare in a society of emotional individuals, generates by itself, i.e. in the absence of animal spirits, uniform business fluctuations. This is the result of the income redistribution needed to reconcile the policy-maker’s with the emotional individual’s view of private welfare. Consequently, if animal-spirits induced fluctuations are already present when a policy-maker is introduced in the economy, the aim of policy intervention should be the design of that income redistribution that would not aggravate the business cycle but that would end up in uniform only cycles, with the aid perhaps of discretionary interest rate policy. Nevertheless, if animal spirits do not exist when the policy-maker enters the system, the income-redistribution induced cycles may incite such spirits by themselves in which case the cycles will not be of the uniform type. All comes down to “income and emotion”, to an ageless and ecumenical fact of life, complicated purposefully or not by authority.
A formal guidance for handling different uncertainty sources employed in the level 2 PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon; Ha, Jae Joo
2004-01-01
The methodological framework of the level 2 PSA appears to be currently standardized in a formalized fashion, but there have been different opinions on the way the sources of uncertainty are characterized and treated. This is primarily because the level 2 PSA deals with complex phenomenological processes that are deterministic in nature rather than random processes, and there are no probabilistic models characterizing them clearly. As a result, the probabilistic quantification of the level 2 PSA CET/APET is often subjected to two sources of uncertainty: (a) incomplete modeling of accident pathways or different predictions for the behavior of phenomenological events and (b) expert-to-expert variation in estimating the occurrence probability of phenomenological events. While a clear definition of the two sources of uncertainty involved in the level 2 PSA makes it possible to treat an uncertainty in a consistent manner, careless application of these different sources of uncertainty may produce different conclusions in the decision-making process. The primary purpose of this paper is to characterize typical sources of uncertainty that would often be addressed in the level 2 PSA and to provide a formal guidance for quantifying their impacts on the PSA level 2 risk results. An additional purpose of this paper is to give a formal approach on how to combine random uncertainties addressed in the level 1 PSA with subjectivistic uncertainties addressed in the level 2 PSA
A formal treatment of uncertainty sources in a level 2 PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon
2003-01-01
The methodological framework of the level 2 PSA appears to be currently standardized in a formalized fashion, but there have been different opinions on the way the sources of uncertainty are characterized and treated. This is primarily because the level 2 PSA deals with complex phenomenological processes that are deterministic in nature rather than random processes, and there are no probabilistic models characterizing them clearly. As a result, the probabilistic quantification of the level 2 PSA is often subjected to two sources of uncertainty: (a) incomplete modeling of accident pathways or different predictions for the behavior of phenomenological events and (b) expert-to-expert variation in estimating the occurrence probability of phenomenological events. While a clear definition of the two sources of uncertainty involved in the level 2 PSA makes it possible to treat an uncertainty in a consistent manner, careless application of these different sources of uncertainty may produce different conclusions in the decision-making process. The primary purpose of this paper is to characterize typical sources of uncertainty that would often be addressed in the level 2 PSA and their impacts on the PSA level 2 risk results. An additional purpose of this paper is to give a formal approach on how to combine random uncertainties addressed in the level 1 PSA with subjectivistic uncertainties addressed in the level 2 PSA
Including uncertainty in hazard analysis through fuzzy measures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.
1997-12-01
This paper presents a method for capturing the uncertainty expressed by an Hazard Analysis (HA) expert team when estimating the frequencies and consequences of accident sequences and provides a sound mathematical framework for propagating this uncertainty to the risk estimates for these accident sequences. The uncertainty is readily expressed as distributions that can visually aid the analyst in determining the extent and source of risk uncertainty in HA accident sequences. The results also can be expressed as single statistics of the distribution in a manner analogous to expressing a probabilistic distribution as a point-value statistic such as a mean or median. The study discussed here used data collected during the elicitation portion of an HA on a high-level waste transfer process to demonstrate the techniques for capturing uncertainty. These data came from observations of the uncertainty that HA team members expressed in assigning frequencies and consequences to accident sequences during an actual HA. This uncertainty was captured and manipulated using ideas from possibility theory. The result of this study is a practical method for displaying and assessing the uncertainty in the HA team estimates of the frequency and consequences for accident sequences. This uncertainty provides potentially valuable information about accident sequences that typically is lost in the HA process
Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reinert, Joshua M.; Apostolakis, George E.
2006-01-01
Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and are known to have significant model uncertainties. Because we work with basic event probabilities, this methodology is not appropriate for analyzing uncertainties that cause a structural change to the model, such as success criteria. We use the risk achievement worth (RAW) importance measure with respect to both the core damage frequency (CDF) and the change in core damage frequency (ΔCDF) to identify potentially important basic events. We cross-check these with generically important model uncertainties. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed on the basic event probabilities, which are used as a proxy for the model parameters, to determine how much error in these probabilities would need to be present in order to impact the decision. A previously submitted licensing basis change is used as a case study. Analysis using the SAPHIRE program identifies 20 basic events as important, four of which have model uncertainties that have been identified in the literature as generally important. The decision is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in these basic events. In three of these cases, one would need to show that model uncertainties would lead to basic event probabilities that would be between two and four orders of magnitude larger than modeled in the risk assessment before they would become important to the decision. More detailed analysis would be required to determine whether these higher probabilities are reasonable. Methods to perform this analysis from the literature are reviewed and an example is demonstrated using the case study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unal, C.; Williams, B.; Hemez, F.; Atamturktur, S.H.; McClure, P.
2011-01-01
Research highlights: → The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology (BEPU) is one option in the licensing of nuclear reactors. → The challenges for extending the BEPU method for fuel qualification for an advanced reactor fuel are primarily driven by schedule, the need for data, and the sufficiency of the data. → In this paper we develop an extended BEPU methodology that can potentially be used to address these new challenges in the design and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. → The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. → The methodology includes a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to existing data, so that required new testing can be minimized, saving cost by demonstrating that further testing will not enhance the quality of the predictive tools. - Abstract: Many evolving nuclear energy technologies use advanced predictive multiscale, multiphysics modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities to reduce the cost and schedule of design and licensing. Historically, the role of experiments has been as a primary tool for the design and understanding of nuclear system behavior, while M and S played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multiscale, multiphysics computational-based technology development, this role has been reversed. The experiments will still be needed, but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate the models leading to predictive simulations for design and licensing. Minimizing the required number of validation experiments produces cost and time savings. The use of multiscale, multiphysics models introduces challenges in validating these predictive tools - traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these challenges. This paper gives the basic aspects of a methodology that can potentially be used to address these new challenges in
S5-4: Formal Modeling of Affordance in Human-Included Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Namhun Kim
2012-10-01
Full Text Available In spite of it being necessary for humans to consider modeling, analysis, and control of human-included systems, it has been considered a challenging problem because of the critical role of humans in complex systems and of humans' capability of executing unanticipated actions–both beneficial and detrimental ones. Thus, to provide systematic approaches to modeling human actions as a part of system behaviors, a formal modeling framework for human-involved systems in which humans play a controlling role based on their perceptual information is presented. The theory of affordance provides definitions of human actions and their associated properties; Finite State Automata (FSA based modeling is capable of mapping nondeterministic humans into computable components in the system representation. In this talk, we investigate the role of perception in human actions in the system operation and examine the representation of perceptual elements in affordance-based modeling formalism. The proposed framework is expected to capture the natural ways in which humans participate in the system as part of its operation. A human-machine cooperative manufacturing system control example and a human agent simulation example will be introduced for the illustrative purposes at the end of the presentation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unal, Cetin; Williams, Brian; McClure, Patrick; Nelson, Ralph A.
2010-01-01
Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Williams, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mc Clure, Patrick [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nelson, Ralph A [IDAHO NATIONAL LAB
2010-01-01
Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost
Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert
2014-01-01
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more ‘constants’, each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived ‘constants’ must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional
Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert
2014-02-01
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more 'constants', each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived 'constants' must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional relationship
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Luo, Wei, E-mail: wei.luo@uky.edu; Molloy, Janelle; Aryal, Prakash; Feddock, Jonathan; Randall, Marcus [Department of Radiation Medicine, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky 40536 (United States)
2014-02-15
Purpose: The current widely used biological equivalent dose (BED) formalism for permanent implants is based on the linear-quadratic model that includes cell repair and repopulation but not resensitization (redistribution and reoxygenation). The authors propose a BED formalism that includes all the four biological effects (4Rs), and the authors propose how it can be used to calculate appropriate prescription doses for permanent implants with Cs-131. Methods: A resensitization correction was added to the BED calculation for permanent implants to account for 4Rs. Using the same BED, the prescription doses with Au-198, I-125, and Pd-103 were converted to the isoeffective Cs-131 prescription doses. The conversion factor F, ratio of the Cs-131 dose to the equivalent dose with the other reference isotope (F{sub r}: with resensitization, F{sub n}: without resensitization), was thus derived and used for actual prescription. Different values of biological parameters such as α, β, and relative biological effectiveness for different types of tumors were used for the calculation. Results: Prescription doses with I-125, Pd-103, and Au-198 ranging from 10 to 160 Gy were converted into prescription doses with Cs-131. The difference in dose conversion factors with (F{sub r}) and without (F{sub n}) resensitization was significant but varied with different isotopes and different types of tumors. The conversion factors also varied with different doses. For I-125, the average values of F{sub r}/F{sub n} were 0.51/0.46, for fast growing tumors, and 0.88/0.77 for slow growing tumors. For Pd-103, the average values of F{sub r}/F{sub n} were 1.25/1.15 for fast growing tumors, and 1.28/1.22 for slow growing tumors. For Au-198, the average values of F{sub r}/F{sub n} were 1.08/1.25 for fast growing tumors, and 1.00/1.06 for slow growing tumors. Using the biological parameters for the HeLa/C4-I cells, the averaged value of F{sub r} was 1.07/1.11 (rounded to 1.1), and the averaged value of F
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luo, Wei; Molloy, Janelle; Aryal, Prakash; Feddock, Jonathan; Randall, Marcus
2014-01-01
Purpose: The current widely used biological equivalent dose (BED) formalism for permanent implants is based on the linear-quadratic model that includes cell repair and repopulation but not resensitization (redistribution and reoxygenation). The authors propose a BED formalism that includes all the four biological effects (4Rs), and the authors propose how it can be used to calculate appropriate prescription doses for permanent implants with Cs-131. Methods: A resensitization correction was added to the BED calculation for permanent implants to account for 4Rs. Using the same BED, the prescription doses with Au-198, I-125, and Pd-103 were converted to the isoeffective Cs-131 prescription doses. The conversion factor F, ratio of the Cs-131 dose to the equivalent dose with the other reference isotope (F r : with resensitization, F n : without resensitization), was thus derived and used for actual prescription. Different values of biological parameters such as α, β, and relative biological effectiveness for different types of tumors were used for the calculation. Results: Prescription doses with I-125, Pd-103, and Au-198 ranging from 10 to 160 Gy were converted into prescription doses with Cs-131. The difference in dose conversion factors with (F r ) and without (F n ) resensitization was significant but varied with different isotopes and different types of tumors. The conversion factors also varied with different doses. For I-125, the average values of F r /F n were 0.51/0.46, for fast growing tumors, and 0.88/0.77 for slow growing tumors. For Pd-103, the average values of F r /F n were 1.25/1.15 for fast growing tumors, and 1.28/1.22 for slow growing tumors. For Au-198, the average values of F r /F n were 1.08/1.25 for fast growing tumors, and 1.00/1.06 for slow growing tumors. Using the biological parameters for the HeLa/C4-I cells, the averaged value of F r was 1.07/1.11 (rounded to 1.1), and the averaged value of F n was 1.75/1.18. F r of 1.1 has been applied to
Wilbert, Stefan; Kleindiek, Stefan; Nouri, Bijan; Geuder, Norbert; Habte, Aron; Schwandt, Marko; Vignola, Frank
2016-05-01
Concentrating solar power projects require accurate direct normal irradiance (DNI) data including uncertainty specifications for plant layout and cost calculations. Ground measured data are necessary to obtain the required level of accuracy and are often obtained with Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers (RSI) that use photodiode pyranometers and correction functions to account for systematic effects. The uncertainty of Si-pyranometers has been investigated, but so far basically empirical studies were published or decisive uncertainty influences had to be estimated based on experience in analytical studies. One of the most crucial estimated influences is the spectral irradiance error because Si-photodiode-pyranometers only detect visible and color infrared radiation and have a spectral response that varies strongly within this wavelength interval. Furthermore, analytic studies did not discuss the role of correction functions and the uncertainty introduced by imperfect shading. In order to further improve the bankability of RSI and Si-pyranometer data, a detailed uncertainty analysis following the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) has been carried out. The study defines a method for the derivation of the spectral error and spectral uncertainties and presents quantitative values of the spectral and overall uncertainties. Data from the PSA station in southern Spain was selected for the analysis. Average standard uncertainties for corrected 10 min data of 2 % for global horizontal irradiance (GHI), and 2.9 % for DNI (for GHI and DNI over 300 W/m²) were found for the 2012 yearly dataset when separate GHI and DHI calibration constants were used. Also the uncertainty in 1 min resolution was analyzed. The effect of correction functions is significant. The uncertainties found in this study are consistent with results of previous empirical studies.
Uncertainties of the Yn Parameters of the Hage-Cifarelli Formalism
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Smith-Nelson, Mark A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Burr, Thomas Lee [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hutchinson, Jesson D. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Cutler, Theresa Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-08-14
One method for determining the physical parameters of a multiplying system is summarized by Cifarelli [1]. In this methodology the single, double and triple rates are determined from what is commonly referred to as Feynman histograms. This paper will examine two methods for estimating the uncertainty in the parameters used in inferring these rates. These methods will be compared with simulated data in order to determine which one best approximates the sample uncertainty.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik
2012-01-01
While there seems to be consensus that hydrological model outputs should be accompanied with an uncertainty estimate the appropriate method for uncertainty estimation is not agreed upon and a debate is ongoing between advocators of formal statistical methods who consider errors as stochastic...... and GLUE advocators who consider errors as epistemic, arguing that the basis of formal statistical approaches that requires the residuals to be stationary and conform to a statistical distribution is unrealistic. In this paper we take a formal frequentist approach to parameter estimation and uncertainty...... necessary but the statistical assumptions were nevertheless not 100% justified. The residual analysis showed that significant autocorrelation was present for all simulation models. We believe users of formal approaches to uncertainty evaluation within hydrology and within environmental modelling in general...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Schmid Marc
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background This article reviews the current debate on developmental trauma disorder (DTD with respect to formalizing its diagnostic criteria. Victims of abuse, neglect, and maltreatment in childhood often develop a wide range of age-dependent psychopathologies with various mental comorbidities. The supporters of a formal DTD diagnosis argue that post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD does not cover all consequences of severe and complex traumatization in childhood. Discussion Traumatized individuals are difficult to treat, but clinical experience has shown that they tend to benefit from specific trauma therapy. A main argument against inclusion of formal DTD criteria into existing diagnostic systems is that emphasis on the etiology of the disorder might force current diagnostic systems to deviate from their purely descriptive nature. Furthermore, comorbidities and biological aspects of the disorder may be underdiagnosed using the DTD criteria. Summary Here, we discuss arguments for and against the proposal of DTD criteria and address implications and consequences for the clinical practice.
Croke, B. F.
2008-12-01
The role of performance indicators is to give an accurate indication of the fit between a model and the system being modelled. As all measurements have an associated uncertainty (determining the significance that should be given to the measurement), performance indicators should take into account uncertainties in the observed quantities being modelled as well as in the model predictions (due to uncertainties in inputs, model parameters and model structure). In the presence of significant uncertainty in observed and modelled output of a system, failure to adequately account for variations in the uncertainties means that the objective function only gives a measure of how well the model fits the observations, not how well the model fits the system being modelled. Since in most cases, the interest lies in fitting the system response, it is vital that the objective function(s) be designed to account for these uncertainties. Most objective functions (e.g. those based on the sum of squared residuals) assume homoscedastic uncertainties. If model contribution to the variations in residuals can be ignored, then transformations (e.g. Box-Cox) can be used to remove (or at least significantly reduce) heteroscedasticity. An alternative which is more generally applicable is to explicitly represent the uncertainties in the observed and modelled values in the objective function. Previous work on this topic addressed the modifications to standard objective functions (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, RMSE, chi- squared, coefficient of determination) using the optimal weighted averaging approach. This paper extends this previous work; addressing the issue of serial correlation. A form for an objective function that includes serial correlation will be presented, and the impact on model fit discussed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Darcel, C. (Itasca Consultants SAS (France)); Davy, P.; Le Goc, R.; Dreuzy, J.R. de; Bour, O. (Geosciences Rennes, UMR 6118 CNRS, Univ. def Rennes, Rennes (France))
2009-11-15
the lineament scale (k{sub t} = 2) on the other, addresses the issue of the nature of the transition. We develop a new 'mechanistic' model that could help in modeling why and where this transition can occur. The transition between both regimes would occur for a fracture length of 1-10 m and even at a smaller scale for the few outcrops that follow the self-similar density model. A consequence for the disposal issue is that the model that is likely to apply in the 'blind' scale window between 10-100 m is the self-similar model as it is defined for large-scale lineaments. The self-similar model, as it is measured for some outcrops and most lineament maps, is definitely worth being investigated as a reference for scales above 1-10 m. In the rest of the report, we develop a methodology for incorporating uncertainty and variability into the DFN modeling. Fracturing properties arise from complex processes which produce an intrinsic variability; characterizing this variability as an admissible variation of model parameter or as the division of the site into subdomains with distinct DFN models is a critical point of the modeling effort. Moreover, the DFN model encompasses a part of uncertainty, due to data inherent uncertainties and sampling limits. Both effects must be quantified and incorporated into the DFN site model definition process. In that context, all available borehole data including recording of fracture intercept positions, pole orientation and relative uncertainties are used as the basis for the methodological development and further site model assessment. An elementary dataset contains a set of discrete fracture intercepts from which a parent orientation/density distribution can be computed. The elementary bricks of the site, from which these initial parent density distributions are computed, rely on the former Single Hole Interpretation division of the boreholes into sections whose local boundaries are expected to reflect - locally - geology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Darcel, C.; Davy, P.; Le Goc, R.; Dreuzy, J.R. de; Bour, O.
2009-11-01
the other, addresses the issue of the nature of the transition. We develop a new 'mechanistic' model that could help in modeling why and where this transition can occur. The transition between both regimes would occur for a fracture length of 1-10 m and even at a smaller scale for the few outcrops that follow the self-similar density model. A consequence for the disposal issue is that the model that is likely to apply in the 'blind' scale window between 10-100 m is the self-similar model as it is defined for large-scale lineaments. The self-similar model, as it is measured for some outcrops and most lineament maps, is definitely worth being investigated as a reference for scales above 1-10 m. In the rest of the report, we develop a methodology for incorporating uncertainty and variability into the DFN modeling. Fracturing properties arise from complex processes which produce an intrinsic variability; characterizing this variability as an admissible variation of model parameter or as the division of the site into subdomains with distinct DFN models is a critical point of the modeling effort. Moreover, the DFN model encompasses a part of uncertainty, due to data inherent uncertainties and sampling limits. Both effects must be quantified and incorporated into the DFN site model definition process. In that context, all available borehole data including recording of fracture intercept positions, pole orientation and relative uncertainties are used as the basis for the methodological development and further site model assessment. An elementary dataset contains a set of discrete fracture intercepts from which a parent orientation/density distribution can be computed. The elementary bricks of the site, from which these initial parent density distributions are computed, rely on the former Single Hole Interpretation division of the boreholes into sections whose local boundaries are expected to reflect - locally - geology and fracturing properties main characteristics. From that
Network optimization including gas lift and network parameters under subsurface uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schulze-Riegert, R.; Baffoe, J.; Pajonk, O. [SPT Group GmbH, Hamburg (Germany); Badalov, H.; Huseynov, S. [Technische Univ. Clausthal, Clausthal-Zellerfeld (Germany). ITE; Trick, M. [SPT Group, Calgary, AB (Canada)
2013-08-01
Optimization of oil and gas field production systems poses a great challenge to field development due to complex and multiple interactions between various operational design parameters and subsurface uncertainties. Conventional analytical methods are capable of finding local optima based on single deterministic models. They are less applicable for efficiently generating alternative design scenarios in a multi-objective context. Practical implementations of robust optimization workflows integrate the evaluation of alternative design scenarios and multiple realizations of subsurface uncertainty descriptions. Production or economic performance indicators such as NPV (Net Present Value) are linked to a risk-weighted objective function definition to guide the optimization processes. This work focuses on an integrated workflow using a reservoir-network simulator coupled to an optimization framework. The work will investigate the impact of design parameters while considering the physics of the reservoir, wells, and surface facilities. Subsurface uncertainties are described by well parameters such as inflow performance. Experimental design methods are used to investigate parameter sensitivities and interactions. Optimization methods are used to find optimal design parameter combinations which improve key performance indicators of the production network system. The proposed workflow will be applied to a representative oil reservoir coupled to a network which is modelled by an integrated reservoir-network simulator. Gas-lift will be included as an explicit measure to improve production. An objective function will be formulated for the net present value of the integrated system including production revenue and facility costs. Facility and gas lift design parameters are tuned to maximize NPV. Well inflow performance uncertainties are introduced with an impact on gas lift performance. Resulting variances on NPV are identified as a risk measure for the optimized system design. A
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bohn, M.P.
1992-12-01
As part of the NRC-sponsored program to study the implications of Generic Issue 57, ''Effects of Fire Protection System Actuation on Safety-Related Equipment,'' a subtask was performed to evaluate the applicability of formal decision analysis methods to generic issues cost/benefit-type decisions and to apply these methods to the GI-57 results. In this report, the numerical results obtained from the analysis of three plants (two PWRs and one BWR) as developed in the technical resolution program for GI-57 were studied. For each plant, these results included a calculation of the person-REM averted due to various accident scenarios and various proposed modifications to mitigate the accident scenarios identified. These results were recomputed to break out the benefit in terms of contributions due to random event scenarios, fire event scenarios, and seismic event scenarios. Furthermore, the benefits associated with risk (in terms of person-REM) averted from earthquakes at three different seismic ground motion levels were separately considered. Given this data, formal decision methodologies involving decision trees, value functions, and utility functions were applied to this basic data. It is shown that the formal decision methodology can be applied at several different levels. Examples are given in which the decision between several retrofits is changed from that resulting from a simple cost/benefit-ratio criterion by virtue of the decision-makinger's expressed (and assumed) preferences
Uncertainty-driven nuclear data evaluation including thermal (n,α) applied to 59Ni
Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.; Rochman, D.
2017-11-01
This paper presents a novel approach to the evaluation of nuclear data (ND), combining experimental data for thermal cross sections with resonance parameters and nuclear reaction modeling. The method involves sampling of various uncertain parameters, in particular uncertain components in experimental setups, and provides extensive covariance information, including consistent cross-channel correlations over the whole energy spectrum. The method is developed for, and applied to, 59Ni, but may be used as a whole, or in part, for other nuclides. 59Ni is particularly interesting since a substantial amount of 59Ni is produced in thermal nuclear reactors by neutron capture in 58Ni and since it has a non-threshold (n,α) cross section. Therefore, 59Ni gives a very important contribution to the helium production in stainless steel in a thermal reactor. However, current evaluated ND libraries contain old information for 59Ni, without any uncertainty information. The work includes a study of thermal cross section experiments and a novel combination of this experimental information, giving the full multivariate distribution of the thermal cross sections. In particular, the thermal (n,α) cross section is found to be 12.7 ± . 7 b. This is consistent with, but yet different from, current established values. Further, the distribution of thermal cross sections is combined with reported resonance parameters, and with TENDL-2015 data, to provide full random ENDF files; all of this is done in a novel way, keeping uncertainties and correlations in mind. The random files are also condensed into one single ENDF file with covariance information, which is now part of a beta version of JEFF 3.3. Finally, the random ENDF files have been processed and used in an MCNP model to study the helium production in stainless steel. The increase in the (n,α) rate due to 59Ni compared to fresh stainless steel is found to be a factor of 5.2 at a certain time in the reactor vessel, with a relative
Improving weather predictability by including land-surface model parameter uncertainty
Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Pappenberger, Florian
2016-04-01
The land surface forms an important component of Earth system models and interacts nonlinearly with other parts such as ocean and atmosphere. To capture the complex and heterogenous hydrology of the land surface, land surface models include a large number of parameters impacting the coupling to other components of the Earth system model. Focusing on ECMWF's land-surface model HTESSEL we present in this study a comprehensive parameter sensitivity evaluation using multiple observational datasets in Europe. We select 6 poorly constrained effective parameters (surface runoff effective depth, skin conductivity, minimum stomatal resistance, maximum interception, soil moisture stress function shape, total soil depth) and explore their sensitivity to model outputs such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff using uncoupled simulations and coupled seasonal forecasts. Additionally we investigate the possibility to construct ensembles from the multiple land surface parameters. In the uncoupled runs we find that minimum stomatal resistance and total soil depth have the most influence on model performance. Forecast skill scores are moreover sensitive to the same parameters as HTESSEL performance in the uncoupled analysis. We demonstrate the robustness of our findings by comparing multiple best performing parameter sets and multiple randomly chosen parameter sets. We find better temperature and precipitation forecast skill with the best-performing parameter perturbations demonstrating representativeness of model performance across uncoupled (and hence less computationally demanding) and coupled settings. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts from ensemble members derived with different best-performing parameterizations of HTESSEL. This incorporation of parameter uncertainty in the ensemble generation yields an increase in forecast skill, even beyond the skill of the default system. Orth, R., E. Dutra, and F. Pappenberger, 2016: Improving weather predictability by
2010-04-01
... DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Employment and Training Administration [TA-W-71,045] Bayer Material Science... January 8th, 2010, applicable to workers of Bayer Material Science, LLC, formally known as Sheffield... polycarbonate film products. Information shows that Bayer Material Science, LLC was formally known as Sheffield...
PDF uncertainties in precision electroweak measurements, including the W mass, in ATLAS
Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; The ATLAS collaboration
2015-01-01
Now that the Higgs mass is known all the parameters of the SM are known- but with what accuracy? Precision EW measurements test the self-consistency of the SM- and thus can give hints of BSM physics. Precision measurements of $sin^2\\theta _W$ and the W mass are limited by PDF uncertainties This contribution discusses these uncertainties and what can be done to improve them.
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Silva, T.A. da
1988-01-01
The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt
Alvizuri, Celso R.
We present a catalog of full seismic moment tensors for 63 events from Uturuncu volcano in Bolivia. The events were recorded during 2011-2012 in the PLUTONS seismic array of 24 broadband stations. Most events had magnitudes between 0.5 and 2.0 and did not generate discernible surface waves; the largest event was Mw 2.8. For each event we computed the misfit between observed and synthetic waveforms, and we used first-motion polarity measurements to reduce the number of possible solutions. Each moment tensor solution was obtained using a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors. For each event we show the misfit function in eigenvalue space, represented by a lune. We identify three subsets of the catalog: (1) 6 isotropic events, (2) 5 tensional crack events, and (3) a swarm of 14 events southeast of the volcanic center that appear to be double couples. The occurrence of positively isotropic events is consistent with other published results from volcanic and geothermal regions. Several of these previous results, as well as our results, cannot be interpreted within the context of either an oblique opening crack or a crack-plus-double-couple model. Proper characterization of uncertainties for full moment tensors is critical for distinguishing among physical models of source processes. A seismic moment tensor is a 3x3 symmetric matrix that provides a compact representation of a seismic source. We develop an algorithm to estimate moment tensors and their uncertainties from observed seismic data. For a given event, the algorithm performs a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors by generating synthetic waveforms for each moment tensor and then evaluating a misfit function between the observed and synthetic waveforms. 'The' moment tensor M0 for the event is then the moment tensor with minimum misfit. To describe the uncertainty associated with M0, we first convert the misfit function to a probability function. The uncertainty, or
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hartmann, C.; Sanchez, V.; Tietsch, W.; Stieglitz, R.
2012-01-01
The KIT is involved in the development and qualification of best estimate methodologies for BWR transient analysis in cooperation with industrial partners. The goal is to establish the most advanced thermal hydraulic system codes coupled with 3D reactor dynamic codes to be able to perform a more realistic evaluation of the BWR behavior under accidental conditions. For this purpose a computational chain based on the lattice code (SCALE6/GenPMAXS), the coupled neutronic/thermal hydraulic code (TRACE/PARCS) as well as a Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity package (SUSA) has been established and applied to different kind of transients of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). This paper will describe the multidimensional models of the plant elaborated for TRACE and PARCS to perform the investigations mentioned before. For the uncertainty quantification of the coupled code TRACE/PARCS and specifically to take into account the influence of the kinetics parameters in such studies, the PARCS code has been extended to facilitate the change of model parameters in such a way that the SUSA package can be used in connection with TRACE/PARCS for the U and S studies. This approach will be presented in detail. The results obtained for a rod drop transient with TRACE/PARCS using the SUSA-methodology showed clearly the importance of some kinetic parameters on the transient progression demonstrating that the coupling of a best-estimate coupled codes with uncertainty and sensitivity tools is very promising and of great importance for the safety assessment of nuclear reactors. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Habegger, L.J.; Oezkaynak, A.H.
1984-01-01
Coal combustion particulates are released to the atmosphere by power plants supplying electrical to the nuclear fuel cycle. This paper presents estimates of the public health risks associated with the release of these particulates at a rate associated with the annual nuclear fuel production requirements for a nuclear power plan. Utilization of these risk assessments as a new component in the formal evaluation of total risks from nuclear power plants is discussed. 23 references, 3 tables
Automatic reconstruction of fault networks from seismicity catalogs including location uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang, Y.
2013-01-01
Within the framework of plate tectonics, the deformation that arises from the relative movement of two plates occurs across discontinuities in the earth's crust, known as fault zones. Active fault zones are the causal locations of most earthquakes, which suddenly release tectonic stresses within a very short time. In return, fault zones slowly grow by accumulating slip due to such earthquakes by cumulated damage at their tips, and by branching or linking between pre-existing faults of various sizes. Over the last decades, a large amount of knowledge has been acquired concerning the overall phenomenology and mechanics of individual faults and earthquakes: A deep physical and mechanical understanding of the links and interactions between and among them is still missing, however. One of the main issues lies in our failure to always succeed in assigning an earthquake to its causative fault. Using approaches based in pattern-recognition theory, more insight into the relationship between earthquakes and fault structure can be gained by developing an automatic fault network reconstruction approach using high resolution earthquake data sets at largely different scales and by considering individual event uncertainties. This thesis introduces the Anisotropic Clustering of Location Uncertainty Distributions (ACLUD) method to reconstruct active fault networks on the basis of both earthquake locations and their estimated individual uncertainties. This method consists in fitting a given set of hypocenters with an increasing amount of finite planes until the residuals of the fit compare with location uncertainties. After a massive search through the large solution space of possible reconstructed fault networks, six different validation procedures are applied in order to select the corresponding best fault network. Two of the validation steps (cross-validation and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)) process the fit residuals, while the four others look for solutions that
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mora, Juan C. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas - CIEMAT (Spain); Telleria, Diego [International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA (Austria); Al Neaimi, Ahmed [Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation - ENEC (United Arab Emirates); Blixt Buhr, Anna Ma [Vattenfall AB (Sweden); Bonchuk, Iurii [Radiation Protection Institute - RPI (Ukraine); Chouhan, Sohan [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited - AECL (Canada); Chyly, Pavol [SE-VYZ (Slovakia); Curti, Adriana R. [Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear - ARN (Argentina); Da Costa, Dejanira [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria - IRD (Brazil); Duran, Juraj [VUJE Inc (Slovakia); Galeriu, Dan [Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering - IFIN-HH (Romania); Haegg, Ann- Christin; Lager, Charlotte [Swedish Radiation Safety Authority - SSM (Sweden); Heling, Rudie [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group - NRG (Netherlands); Ivanis, Goran; Shen, Jige [Ecometrix Incorporated (Canada); Iosjpe, Mikhail [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority - NRPA (Norway); Krajewski, Pawel M. [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection - CLOR (Poland); Marang, Laura; Vermorel, Fabien [Electricite de France - EdF (France); Mourlon, Christophe [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire - IRSN (France); Perez, Fabricio F. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre - SCK (Belgium); Woodruffe, Andrew [Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation - FANR (United Arab Emirates); Zorko, Benjamin [Jozef Stefan Institute (Slovenia)
2014-07-01
MODARIA (Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments) project was launched in 2012 with the aim of improving the capabilities in radiation dose assessment by means of acquisition of improved data for model testing, model testing and comparison, reaching consensus on modelling philosophies, approaches and parameter values, development of improved methods and exchange of information. The project focuses on areas where uncertainties remain in the predictive capability of environmental models, emphasizing in reducing associated uncertainties or developing new approaches to strengthen the evaluation of the radiological impact. Within MODARIA, four main areas were defined, one of them devoted to Uncertainty and Variability. In this area four working groups were included, Working Group 5 dealing with the 'uncertainty and variability analysis for assessments of radiological impacts arising from routine discharges of radionuclides'. Whether doses are estimated by using measurement data, by applying models, or through a combination of measurements and calculations, the variability and uncertainty contribute to a distribution of possible values. The degree of variability and uncertainty is represented by the shape and extent of that distribution. The main objective of WG5 is to explore how to consider uncertainties and variabilities in the results of assessment of doses in planned situations for controlling the impact of routine releases from radioactive and nuclear installations to the environment. The final aim is to produce guidance for the calculation of uncertainties in these exposure situations and for the presentation of such results to the different stakeholders. To achieve that objective the main tasks identified were: to find tools and methods for uncertainty and variability analysis applicable to dose assessments in routine radioactive discharges, to define scenarios where information on uncertainty and variability of parameters is available
Probabilistic assessment of fatigue life including statistical uncertainties in the S-N curve
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sudret, B.; Hornet, P.; Stephan, J.-M.; Guede, Z.; Lemaire, M.
2003-01-01
A probabilistic framework is set up to assess the fatigue life of components of nuclear power plants. It intends to incorporate all kinds of uncertainties such as those appearing in the specimen fatigue life, design sub-factor, mechanical model and applied loading. This paper details the first step, which corresponds to the statistical treatment of the fatigue specimen test data. The specimen fatigue life at stress amplitude S is represented by a lognormal random variable whose mean and standard deviation depend on S. This characterization is then used to compute the random fatigue life of a component submitted to a single kind of cycles. Precisely the mean and coefficient of variation of this quantity are studied, as well as the reliability associated with the (deterministic) design value. (author)
Automatic reconstruction of fault networks from seismicity catalogs including location uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Y.
2013-07-01
Within the framework of plate tectonics, the deformation that arises from the relative movement of two plates occurs across discontinuities in the earth's crust, known as fault zones. Active fault zones are the causal locations of most earthquakes, which suddenly release tectonic stresses within a very short time. In return, fault zones slowly grow by accumulating slip due to such earthquakes by cumulated damage at their tips, and by branching or linking between pre-existing faults of various sizes. Over the last decades, a large amount of knowledge has been acquired concerning the overall phenomenology and mechanics of individual faults and earthquakes: A deep physical and mechanical understanding of the links and interactions between and among them is still missing, however. One of the main issues lies in our failure to always succeed in assigning an earthquake to its causative fault. Using approaches based in pattern-recognition theory, more insight into the relationship between earthquakes and fault structure can be gained by developing an automatic fault network reconstruction approach using high resolution earthquake data sets at largely different scales and by considering individual event uncertainties. This thesis introduces the Anisotropic Clustering of Location Uncertainty Distributions (ACLUD) method to reconstruct active fault networks on the basis of both earthquake locations and their estimated individual uncertainties. This method consists in fitting a given set of hypocenters with an increasing amount of finite planes until the residuals of the fit compare with location uncertainties. After a massive search through the large solution space of possible reconstructed fault networks, six different validation procedures are applied in order to select the corresponding best fault network. Two of the validation steps (cross-validation and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)) process the fit residuals, while the four others look for solutions that
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Yun Goo; Seong, Poong Hyun
2012-01-01
The Computerized Procedure System (CPS) is one of the primary operating support systems in the digital Main Control Room. The CPS displays procedure on the computer screen in the form of a flow chart, and displays plant operating information along with procedure instructions. It also supports operator decision making by providing a system decision. A procedure flow should be correct and reliable, as an error would lead to operator misjudgement and inadequate control. In this paper we present a modeling for the CPS that enables formal verification based on Petri nets. The proposed State Token Petri Nets (STPN) also support modeling of a procedure flow that has various interruptions by the operator, according to the plant condition. STPN modeling is compared with Coloured Petri net when they are applied to Emergency Operating Computerized Procedure. A converting program for Computerized Procedure (CP) to STPN has been also developed. The formal verification and validation methods of CP with STPN increase the safety of a nuclear power plant and provide digital quality assurance means that are needed when the role and function of the CPS is increasing.
Janssen, G.M.C.M.; Valstar, J.R.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.
2008-01-01
Traveltime determinations have found increasing application in the characterization of groundwater systems. No algorithms are available, however, to optimally design sampling strategies including this information type. We propose a first-order methodology to include groundwater age or tracer arrival
Jordan, A; El Haloui, O; Breaud, J; Chevalier, D; Antomarchi, J; Bongain, A; Boucoiran, I; Delotte, J
2015-01-01
Evaluate an educational program in the training of residents in gynecology-obstetrics (GO) with a theory session and a practical session on simulators and analyze their learning curve. Single-center prospective study, at the university hospital (CHU). Two-day sessions were leaded in April and July 2013. An evaluation on obstetric and gynecological surgery simulator was available to all residents. Theoretical knowledge principles of obstetrics were evaluated early in the session and after formal lectures was taught to them. At the end of the first session, a satisfaction questionnaire was distributed to all participants. Twenty residents agreed to participate to the training sessions. Evaluation of theoretical knowledge: at the end of the session, the residents obtained a significant improvement in their score on 20 testing knowledge. Obstetrical simulator: a statistically significant improvement in scores on assessments simulator vaginal delivery between the first and second session. Subjectively, a larger increase feeling was seen after breech delivery simulation than for the cephalic vaginal delivery. However, the confidence level of the resident after breech delivery simulation has not been improved at the end of the second session. Simulation in gynecological surgery: a trend towards improvement in the time realized on the peg-transfer between the two sessions was noted. In the virtual simulation, no statistically significant differences showed, no improvement for in salpingectomy's time. Subjectively, the residents felt an increase in the precision of their gesture. Satisfaction: All residents have tried the whole program. They considered the pursuit of these sessions on simulators was necessary and even mandatory. The approach chosen by this structured educational program allowed a progression for the residents, both objectively and subjectively. This simulation program type for the resident's training would use this tool in assessing their skills and develop
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Masses of Formal Philosophy is an outgrowth of Formal Philosophy. That book gathered the responses of some of the most prominent formal philosophers to five relatively open and broad questions initiating a discussion of metaphilosophical themes and problems surrounding the use of formal methods i...... in philosophy. Including contributions from a wide range of philosophers, Masses of Formal Philosophy contains important new responses to the original five questions.......Masses of Formal Philosophy is an outgrowth of Formal Philosophy. That book gathered the responses of some of the most prominent formal philosophers to five relatively open and broad questions initiating a discussion of metaphilosophical themes and problems surrounding the use of formal methods...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Landsberg, P.T.
1990-01-01
This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Walter, Lena; Binning, Philip John; Oladyshkin, Sergey
2012-01-01
resulting from displaced brine. Quantifying risk on the basis of numerical simulations requires consideration of different kinds of uncertainties and this study considers both, scenario uncertainty and statistical uncertainty. Addressing scenario uncertainty involves expert opinion on relevant geological......Comprehensive risk assessment is a major task for large-scale projects such as geological storage of CO2. Basic hazards are damage to the integrity of caprocks, leakage of CO2, or reduction of groundwater quality due to intrusion of fluids. This study focuses on salinization of freshwater aquifers...... for large-scale 3D models including complex physics. Therefore, we apply a model reduction based on arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion combined with probabilistic collocation method. It is shown that, dependent on data availability, both types of uncertainty can be equally significant. The presented study...
Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad
2016-01-01
Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)
Two-stage robust UC including a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Álvarez-Miranda, Eduardo; Campos-Valdés, Camilo; Rahmann, Claudia
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Methodological framework for obtaining Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies. • Wind-power forecast using a revisited bootstrap predictive inference approach. • Novel scenario-based model for wind-power uncertainty. • Efficient modeling framework for obtaining nearly optimal UC policies in reasonable time. • Effective incorporation of wind-power uncertainty in the UC modeling. - Abstract: The complex processes involved in the determination of the availability of power from renewable energy sources, such as wind power, impose great challenges in the forecasting processes carried out by transmission system operators (TSOs). Nowadays, many of these TSOs use operation planning tools that take into account the uncertainty of the wind-power. However, most of these methods typically require strict assumptions about the probabilistic behavior of the forecast error, and usually ignore the dynamic nature of the forecasting process. In this paper a methodological framework to obtain Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies is presented; such methodology considers a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications. The proposed method is composed by three main phases. The first two phases generate a sound wind-power forecast using a bootstrap predictive inference approach. The third phase corresponds to modeling and solving a one-day ahead Robust UC considering the output of the first phase. The performance of proposed approach is evaluated using as case study a new wind farm to be incorporated into the Northern Interconnected System (NIS) of Chile. A projection of wind-based power installation, as well as different characteristic of the uncertain data, are considered in this study
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF
1990-01-01
This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und
Rowan, Susan; Newness, Elmer J; Tetradis, Sotirios; Prasad, Joanne L; Ko, Ching-Chang; Sanchez, Arlene
2017-11-01
Student evaluation of teaching (SET) is often used in the assessment of faculty members' job performance and promotion and tenure decisions, but debate over this use of student evaluations has centered on the validity, reliability, and application of the data in assessing teaching performance. Additionally, the fear of student criticism has the potential of influencing course content delivery and testing measures. This Point/Counterpoint article reviews the potential utility of and controversy surrounding the use of SETs in the formal assessment of dental school faculty. Viewpoint 1 supports the view that SETs are reliable and should be included in those formal assessments. Proponents of this opinion contend that SETs serve to measure a school's effectiveness in support of its core mission, are valid measures based on feedback from the recipients of educational delivery, and provide formative feedback to improve faculty accountability to the institution. Viewpoint 2 argues that SETs should not be used for promotion and tenure decisions, asserting that higher SET ratings do not correlate with improved student learning. The advocates of this viewpoint contend that faculty members may be influenced to focus on student satisfaction rather than pedagogy, resulting in grade inflation. They also argue that SETs are prone to gender and racial biases and that SET results are frequently misinterpreted by administrators. Low response rates and monotonic response patterns are other factors that compromise the reliability of SETs.
Krylov, Piotr
2017-01-01
This monograph is a comprehensive account of formal matrices, examining homological properties of modules over formal matrix rings and summarising the interplay between Morita contexts and K theory. While various special types of formal matrix rings have been studied for a long time from several points of view and appear in various textbooks, for instance to examine equivalences of module categories and to illustrate rings with one-sided non-symmetric properties, this particular class of rings has, so far, not been treated systematically. Exploring formal matrix rings of order 2 and introducing the notion of the determinant of a formal matrix over a commutative ring, this monograph further covers the Grothendieck and Whitehead groups of rings. Graduate students and researchers interested in ring theory, module theory and operator algebras will find this book particularly valuable. Containing numerous examples, Formal Matrices is a largely self-contained and accessible introduction to the topic, assuming a sol...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Carlos Sousa-Figueiredo
Full Text Available Namibia is now ready to begin mass drug administration of praziquantel and albendazole against schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths, respectively. Although historical data identifies areas of transmission of these neglected tropical diseases (NTDs, there is a need to update epidemiological data. For this reason, Namibia adopted a new protocol for mapping of schistosomiasis and geohelminths, formally integrating rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs for infections and morbidity. In this article, we explain the protocol in detail, and introduce the concept of 'mapping resolution', as well as present results and treatment recommendations for northern Namibia.This new protocol allowed a large sample to be surveyed (N = 17,896 children from 299 schools at relatively low cost (7 USD per person mapped and very quickly (28 working days. All children were analysed by RDTs, but only a sub-sample was also diagnosed by light microscopy. Overall prevalence of schistosomiasis in the surveyed areas was 9.0%, highly associated with poorer access to potable water (OR = 1.5, P<0.001 and defective (OR = 1.2, P<0.001 or absent sanitation infrastructure (OR = 2.0, P<0.001. Overall prevalence of geohelminths, more particularly hookworm infection, was 12.2%, highly associated with presence of faecal occult blood (OR = 1.9, P<0.001. Prevalence maps were produced and hot spots identified to better guide the national programme in drug administration, as well as targeted improvements in water, sanitation and hygiene. The RDTs employed (circulating cathodic antigen and microhaematuria for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium, respectively performed well, with sensitivities above 80% and specificities above 95%.This protocol is cost-effective and sensitive to budget limitations and the potential economic and logistical strains placed on the national Ministries of Health. Here we present a high resolution map of disease prevalence levels, and treatment regimens are
Formalizing Probabilistic Safety Claims
Herencia-Zapana, Heber; Hagen, George E.; Narkawicz, Anthony J.
2011-01-01
A safety claim for a system is a statement that the system, which is subject to hazardous conditions, satisfies a given set of properties. Following work by John Rushby and Bev Littlewood, this paper presents a mathematical framework that can be used to state and formally prove probabilistic safety claims. It also enables hazardous conditions, their uncertainties, and their interactions to be integrated into the safety claim. This framework provides a formal description of the probabilistic composition of an arbitrary number of hazardous conditions and their effects on system behavior. An example is given of a probabilistic safety claim for a conflict detection algorithm for aircraft in a 2D airspace. The motivation for developing this mathematical framework is that it can be used in an automated theorem prover to formally verify safety claims.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dickerhoff, Darryl; Walker, Iain
2008-08-01
found in for the pressure station approach. Walker and Dickerhoff also included estimates of DeltaQ test repeatability based on the results of field tests where two houses were tested multiple times. The two houses were quite leaky (20-25 Air Changes per Hour at 50Pa (0.2 in. water) (ACH50)) and were located in the San Francisco Bay area. One house was tested on a calm day and the other on a very windy day. Results were also presented for two additional houses that were tested by other researchers in Minneapolis, MN and Madison, WI, that had very tight envelopes (1.8 and 2.5 ACH50). These tight houses had internal duct systems and were tested without operating the central blower--sometimes referred to as control tests. The standard deviations between the multiple tests for all four houses were found to be about 1% of the envelope air flow at 50 Pa (0.2 in. water) (Q50) that led to the suggestion of this as a rule of thumb for estimating DeltaQ uncertainty. Because DeltaQ is based on measuring envelope air flows it makes sense for uncertainty to scale with envelope leakage. However, these tests were on a limited data set and one of the objectives of the current study is to increase the number of tested houses. This study focuses on answering two questions: (1) What is the uncertainty associated with changes in weather (primarily wind) conditions during DeltaQ testing? (2) How can these uncertainties be reduced? The first question is addressing issues of repeatability. To study this five houses were tested as many times as possible over a day. Weather data was recorded on-site--including the local windspeed. The result from these five houses were combined with the two Bay Area homes from the previous studies. The variability of the tests (represented by the standard deviation) is the repeatability of the test method for that house under the prevailing weather conditions. Because the testing was performed over a day a wide range of wind speeds was achieved following
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
dimensional superfields, is a clear signature of the presence of the (anti-)BRST invariance in the original. 4D theory. Keywords. Non-Abelian 1-form gauge theory; Dirac fields; (anti-)Becchi–Roucet–Stora–. Tyutin invariance; superfield formalism; ...
Denning, Peter J.
1991-01-01
The ongoing debate over the role of formalism and formal specifications in software features many speakers with diverse positions. Yet, in the end, they share the conviction that the requirements of a software system can be unambiguously specified, that acceptable software is a product demonstrably meeting the specifications, and that the design process can be carried out with little interaction between designers and users once the specification has been agreed to. This conviction is part of a larger paradigm prevalent in American management thinking, which holds that organizations are systems that can be precisely specified and optimized. This paradigm, which traces historically to the works of Frederick Taylor in the early 1900s, is no longer sufficient for organizations and software systems today. In the domain of software, a new paradigm, called user-centered design, overcomes the limitations of pure formalism. Pioneered in Scandinavia, user-centered design is spreading through Europe and is beginning to make its way into the U.S.
Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services
Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy
2010-05-01
Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.
Momentum conservation decides Heisenberg's interpretation of the uncertainty formulas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Angelidis, T.D.
1977-01-01
In the light of Heisenberg's interpretation of the uncertainty formulas, the conditions necessary for the derivation of the quantitative statement or law of momentum conservation are considered. The result of such considerations is a contradiction between the formalism of quantum physics and the asserted consequences of Heisenberg's interpretation. This contradiction decides against Heisenberg's interpretation of the uncertainty formulas on upholding that the formalism of quantum physics is both consistent and complete, at least insofar as the statement of momentum conservation can be proved within this formalism. A few comments are also included on Bohr's complementarity interpretation of the formalism of quantum physics. A suggestion, based on a statistical mode of empirical testing of the uncertainty formulas, does not give rise to any such contradiction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gökçen Uysal
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Optimal control of reservoirs is a challenging task due to conflicting objectives, complex system structure, and uncertainties in the system. Real time control decisions suffer from streamflow forecast uncertainty. This study aims to use Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts (PSFs having a lead-time up to 48 h as input for the recurrent reservoir operation problem. A related technique for decision making is multi-stage stochastic optimization using scenario trees, referred to as Tree-based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC. Deterministic Streamflow Forecasts (DSFs are provided by applying random perturbations on perfect data. PSFs are synthetically generated from DSFs by a new approach which explicitly presents dynamic uncertainty evolution. We assessed different variables in the generation of stochasticity and compared the results using different scenarios. The developed real-time hourly flood control was applied to a test case which had limited reservoir storage and restricted downstream condition. According to hindcasting closed-loop experiment results, TB-MPC outperforms the deterministic counterpart in terms of decreased downstream flood risk according to different independent forecast scenarios. TB-MPC was also tested considering different number of tree branches, forecast horizons, and different inflow conditions. We conclude that using synthetic PSFs in TB-MPC can provide more robust solutions against forecast uncertainty by resolution of uncertainty in trees.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gomez-Magan, J. J.; Fernandez, I.; Gil, J.; Marrao, H.
2013-07-01
Work has been applied DAKOTA-SCAIS-MAAP-R for a loss of coolant in the primary sequence analysis, considering parameters and times uncertain, in a 3L-PWR plant Westinghouse design; which allows to verify the security analysis where temporary uncertainty represents an important parameter.
Conditional uncertainty principle
Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun
2018-04-01
We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.
Revisiting the formal foundation of Probabilistic Databases
Wanders, B.; van Keulen, Maurice
2015-01-01
One of the core problems in soft computing is dealing with uncertainty in data. In this paper, we revisit the formal foundation of a class of probabilistic databases with the purpose to (1) obtain data model independence, (2) separate metadata on uncertainty and probabilities from the raw data, (3)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martens, Hans.
1991-01-01
The subject of this thesis is the uncertainty principle (UP). The UP is one of the most characteristic points of differences between quantum and classical mechanics. The starting point of this thesis is the work of Niels Bohr. Besides the discussion the work is also analyzed. For the discussion of the different aspects of the UP the formalism of Davies and Ludwig is used instead of the more commonly used formalism of Neumann and Dirac. (author). 214 refs.; 23 figs
Formal, Non-Formal and Informal Learning in the Sciences
Ainsworth, Heather L.; Eaton, Sarah Elaine
2010-01-01
This research report investigates the links between formal, non-formal and informal learning and the differences between them. In particular, the report aims to link these notions of learning to the field of sciences and engineering in Canada and the United States, including professional development of adults working in these fields. It offers…
Formal System Verification - Extension 2
2012-08-08
vision of truly trustworthy systems has been to provide a formally verified microkernel basis. We have previously developed the seL4 microkernel...together with a formal proof (in the theorem prover Isabelle/HOL) of its functional correctness [6]. This means that all the behaviours of the seL4 C...source code are included in the high-level, formal specification of the kernel. This work enabled us to provide further formal guarantees about seL4 , in
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barber, D.P.; Heinemann, K.; Mais, H.; Ripken, G.
1991-12-01
In the following report we investigate stochastic particle motion in electron-positron storage ring in the framework of a Fokker-Planck treatment. The motion is described by using the canonical variables χ, p χ , z, p z , σ = s - cxt, p σ = ΔE/E 0 of the fully six-dimensional formalism. Thus synchrotron- and betatron-oscillations are treated simultaneously taking into account all kinds of coupling (synchro-betatron coupling and the coupling of the betatron oscillations by skew quadrupoles and solenoids). In order to set up the Fokker-Planck equation, action-angle variables of the linear coupled motion are introduced. The averaged dimensions of the bunch, resulting from radiation damping of the synchro-betatron oscillations and from an excitation of these oscillations by quantum fluctuations, are calculated by solving the Fokker-Planck equation. The surfaces of constant density in the six-dimensional phase space, given by six-dimensional ellipsoids, are determined. It is shown that the motion of such an ellipsoid under the influence of external fields can be described by six generating orbit vectors which may be combined into a six-dimenional matrix B(s). This 'bunch-shape matrix', B(s), contains complete information about the configuration of the bunch. Classical spin diffusion in linear approximation has also been included so that the dependence of the polarization vector on the orbital phase space coordinates can be studied and another derivation of the linearized depolarization time obtained. (orig.)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Callesen, Ingeborg; Keck, Hannes; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest
2018-01-01
with less than 1% C and some marine sediments. Materials and methods: The method uncertainty for particle size analysis by the laser diffraction method using or not using H2O2 pretreatment followed by 2 min ultrasound and 1-mm sieving was determined for two soil samples and two aquatic sediments......Purpose: Methods for particle size distribution (PSD) determination by laser diffraction are not standardized and differ between disciplines and sectors. The effect of H2O2 pretreatment before a sonication treatment in laser diffraction analysis of soils and marine sediments was examined on soils...... pretreatment on the PSD was small and not significant. The standard deviation (std) in particle size fractions increased with particle size. PSDs and std for some samples were presented for future reference. Similar to other studies, the content of clay and silt (by sieving/hydrometer, SHM) was lower...
Uncertainty and the de Finetti tables
Baratgin , Jean; Over , David; Politzer , Guy
2013-01-01
International audience; The new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning adopts a Bayesian, or prob-abilistic, model for studying human reasoning. Contrary to the traditional binary approach based on truth functional logic, with its binary values of truth and falsity, a third value that represents uncertainty can be introduced in the new paradigm. A variety of three-valued truth table systems are available in the formal literature, including one proposed by de Finetti. We examine the descripti...
Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.
MacGillivray, Brian H
2014-04-01
Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rish, W.R.
1988-08-01
In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.
Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rish, W.R.
1988-08-01
In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented
Scalable Techniques for Formal Verification
Ray, Sandip
2010-01-01
This book presents state-of-the-art approaches to formal verification techniques to seamlessly integrate different formal verification methods within a single logical foundation. It should benefit researchers and practitioners looking to get a broad overview of the spectrum of formal verification techniques, as well as approaches to combining such techniques within a single framework. Coverage includes a range of case studies showing how such combination is fruitful in developing a scalable verification methodology for industrial designs. This book outlines both theoretical and practical issue
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barhen, J.; Bjerke, M.A.; Cacuci, D.G.; Mullins, C.B.; Wagschal, G.G.
1982-01-01
An advanced methodology for performing systematic uncertainty analysis of time-dependent nonlinear systems is presented. This methodology includes a capability for reducing uncertainties in system parameters and responses by using Bayesian inference techniques to consistently combine prior knowledge with additional experimental information. The determination of best estimates for the system parameters, for the responses, and for their respective covariances is treated as a time-dependent constrained minimization problem. Three alternative formalisms for solving this problem are developed. The two ''off-line'' formalisms, with and without ''foresight'' characteristics, require the generation of a complete sensitivity data base prior to performing the uncertainty analysis. The ''online'' formalism, in which uncertainty analysis is performed interactively with the system analysis code, is best suited for treatment of large-scale highly nonlinear time-dependent problems. This methodology is applied to the uncertainty analysis of a transient upflow of a high pressure water heat transfer experiment. For comparison, an uncertainty analysis using sensitivities computed by standard response surface techniques is also performed. The results of the analysis indicate the following. Major reduction of the discrepancies in the calculation/experiment ratios is achieved by using the new methodology. Incorporation of in-bundle measurements in the uncertainty analysis significantly reduces system uncertainties. Accuracy of sensitivities generated by response-surface techniques should be carefully assessed prior to using them as a basis for uncertainty analyses of transient reactor safety problems
Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.
2004-01-01
Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sonja Rueckert
Full Text Available Gregarines represent an important transition step from free-living predatory (colpodellids s.l. and/or photosynthetic (Chromera and Vitrella apicomplexan lineages to the most important pathogens, obligate intracellular parasites of humans and domestic animals such as coccidians and haemosporidians (Plasmodium, Toxoplasma, Eimeria, Babesia, etc.. While dozens of genomes of other apicomplexan groups are available, gregarines are barely entering the molecular age. Among the gregarines, archigregarines possess a unique mixture of ancestral (myzocytosis and derived (lack of apicoplast, presence of subpellicular microtubules features.In this study we revisited five of the early-described species of the genus Selenidium including the type species Selenidium pendula, with special focus on surface ultrastructure and molecular data. We were also able to describe three new species within this genus. All species were characterized at morphological (light and scanning electron microscopy data and molecular (SSU rDNA sequence data levels. Gregarine specimens were isolated from polychaete hosts collected from the English Channel near the Station Biologique de Roscoff, France: Selenidium pendula from Scolelepis squamata, S. hollandei and S. sabellariae from Sabellaria alveolata, S. sabellae from Sabella pavonina, Selenidium fallax from Cirriformia tentaculata, S. spiralis sp. n. and S. antevariabilis sp. n. from Amphitritides gracilis, and S. opheliae sp. n. from Ophelia roscoffensis. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of these data showed archigregarines clustering into five separate clades and support previous doubts about their monophyly.Our phylogenies using the extended gregarine sampling show that the archigregarines are indeed not monophyletic with one strongly supported clade of Selenidium sequences around the type species S. pendula. We suggest the revision of the whole archigregarine taxonomy with only the species within this clade remaining in the genus
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
by testing of the components and successful testing leads to the software being ... Formal verification is based on formal methods which are mathematically based ..... scenario under which a similar error could occur. There are various other ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Douglas Walton
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a formalization of informal logic using the Carneades Argumentation System (CAS, a formal, computational model of argument that consists of a formal model of argument graphs and audiences. Conflicts between pro and con arguments are resolved using proof standards, such as preponderance of the evidence. CAS also formalizes argumentation schemes. Schemes can be used to check whether a given argument instantiates the types of argument deemed normatively appropriate for the type of dialogue.
The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.
1994-01-01
All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties
Pragmatics for formal semantics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Danvy, Olivier
2011-01-01
This tech talk describes how to write and how to inter-derive formal semantics for sequential programming languages. The progress reported here is (1) concrete guidelines to write each formal semantics to alleviate their proof obligations, and (2) simple calculational tools to obtain a formal...
A formalization of computational trust
Güven - Ozcelebi, C.; Holenderski, M.J.; Ozcelebi, T.; Lukkien, J.J.
2018-01-01
Computational trust aims to quantify trust and is studied by many disciplines including computer science, social sciences and business science. We propose a formal computational trust model, including its parameters and operations on these parameters, as well as a step by step guide to compute trust
Industrial use of formal methods formal verification
Boulanger, Jean-Louis
2012-01-01
At present the literature gives students and researchers of the very general books on the formal technics. The purpose of this book is to present in a single book, a return of experience on the used of the "formal technics" (such proof and model-checking) on industrial examples for the transportation domain. This book is based on the experience of people which are completely involved in the realization and the evaluation of safety critical system software based. The implication of the industrialists allows to raise the problems of confidentiality which could appear and so allow
Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon
2018-01-01
The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
du Gay, Paul; Lopdrup-Hjorth, Thomas
Over recent decades, institutions exhibiting high degrees of formality have come in for severe criticism. From the private to the public sector, and across a whole spectrum of actors spanning from practitioners to academics, formal organization is viewed with increasing doubt and skepticism....... In a “Schumpetarian world” (Teece et al., 1997: 509) of dynamic competition and incessant reform, formal organization appears as well suited to survival as a fish out of water. Indeed, formal organization, and its closely overlapping semantic twin bureaucracy, are not only represented as ill suited to the realities...... is that formal organization is an obstacle to be overcome. For that very reason, critics, intellectuals and reformers alike have urged public and private organizations to break out of the stifling straightjacket of formality, to dispense with bureaucracy, and to tear down hierarchies. This could either be done...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.
2005-01-01
In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)
Integrating semi-formal and formal requirements
Wieringa, Roelf J.; Olivé, Antoni; Dubois, Eric; Pastor, Joan Antoni; Huyts, Sander
1997-01-01
In this paper, we report on the integration of informal, semiformal and formal requirements specification techniques. We present a framework for requirements specification called TRADE, within which several well-known semiformal specification techniques are placed. TRADE is based on an analysis of
Uncertainty vs. Information (Invited)
Nearing, Grey
2017-04-01
Information theory is the branch of logic that describes how rational epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data (Knuth, 2005), and any logic of science is incomplete without such a theory. Developing a formal philosophy of science that recognizes this fact results in essentially trivial solutions to several longstanding problems are generally considered intractable, including: • Alleviating the need for any likelihood function or error model. • Derivation of purely logical falsification criteria for hypothesis testing. • Specification of a general quantitative method for process-level model diagnostics. More generally, I make the following arguments: 1. Model evaluation should not proceed by quantifying and/or reducing error or uncertainty, and instead should be approached as a problem of ensuring that our models contain as much information as our experimental data. I propose that the latter is the only question a scientist actually has the ability to ask. 2. Instead of building geophysical models as solutions to differential equations that represent conservation laws, we should build models as maximum entropy distributions constrained by conservation symmetries. This will allow us to derive predictive probabilities directly from first principles. Knuth, K. H. (2005) 'Lattice duality: The origin of probability and entropy', Neurocomputing, 67, pp. 245-274.
Uncertainty and its propagation in dynamics models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Devooght, J.
1994-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to bring together some characteristics due to uncertainty when we deal with dynamic models and therefore to propagation of uncertainty. The respective role of uncertainty and inaccuracy is examined. A mathematical formalism based on Chapman-Kolmogorov equation allows to define a open-quotes subdynamicsclose quotes where the evolution equation takes the uncertainty into account. The problem of choosing or combining models is examined through a loss function associated to a decision
Some illustrative examples of model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bier, V.M.
1994-01-01
In this paper, we first discuss the view of model uncertainty proposed by Apostolakis. We then present several illustrative examples related to model uncertainty, some of which are not well handled by this formalism. Thus, Apostolakis' approach seems to be well suited to describing some types of model uncertainty, but not all. Since a comprehensive approach for characterizing and quantifying model uncertainty is not yet available, it is hoped that the examples presented here will service as a springboard for further discussion
Lindley, Dennis V
2013-01-01
Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Andres, T.H.
2002-05-01
This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andres, T.H
2002-05-01
This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)
Geometry and Formal Linguistics.
Huff, George A.
This paper presents a method of encoding geometric line-drawings in a way which allows sets of such drawings to be interpreted as formal languages. A characterization of certain geometric predicates in terms of their properties as languages is obtained, and techniques usually associated with generative grammars and formal automata are then applied…
Software Formal Inspections Guidebook
1993-01-01
The Software Formal Inspections Guidebook is designed to support the inspection process of software developed by and for NASA. This document provides information on how to implement a recommended and proven method for conducting formal inspections of NASA software. This Guidebook is a companion document to NASA Standard 2202-93, Software Formal Inspections Standard, approved April 1993, which provides the rules, procedures, and specific requirements for conducting software formal inspections. Application of the Formal Inspections Standard is optional to NASA program or project management. In cases where program or project management decide to use the formal inspections method, this Guidebook provides additional information on how to establish and implement the process. The goal of the formal inspections process as documented in the above-mentioned Standard and this Guidebook is to provide a framework and model for an inspection process that will enable the detection and elimination of defects as early as possible in the software life cycle. An ancillary aspect of the formal inspection process incorporates the collection and analysis of inspection data to effect continual improvement in the inspection process and the quality of the software subjected to the process.
Informal work and formal plans
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dalsted, Rikke Juul; Hølge-Hazelton, Bibi; Kousgaard, Marius Brostrøm
2012-01-01
INTRODUCTION: Formal pathways models outline that patients should receive information in order to experience a coherent journey but do not describe an active role for patients or their relatives. The aim of this is paper is to articulate and discuss the active role of patients during their cancer...... trajectories. METHODS AND THEORY: An in-depth case study of patient trajectories at a Danish hospital and surrounding municipality using individual interviews with patients. Theory about trajectory and work by Strauss was included. RESULTS: Patients continuously took initiatives to organize their treatment....... The patients' requests were not sufficiently supported in the professional organisation of work or formal planning. Patients' insertion and use of information in their trajectories challenged professional views and working processes. And the design of the formal pathway models limits the patients' active...
Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lian Jun; Xing Lei
2004-01-01
Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Garsten, Christina; Nyqvist, Anette
Ethnographic work in formal organizations involves learning to recognize the many layers of front stage and back stage of organized life, and to bracket formality. It means to be alert to the fact that what is formal and front stage for one some actors, and in some situations, may in fact be back...... stage and informal for others. Walking the talk, donning the appropriate attire, wearing the proper suit, may be part of what is takes to figure out the code of formal organizational settings – an entrance ticket to the backstage, as it were. Oftentimes, it involves a degree of mimicry, of ‘following...... suits’ (Nyqvist 2013), and of doing ‘ethnography by failure’ (Garsten 2013). In this paper, we explore the layers of informality and formality in our fieldwork experiences among financial investors and policy experts, and discuss how to ethnographically represent embodied fieldwork practices. How do we...
Koch, Michael
Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.
Necessity of Integral Formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tao Yong
2011-01-01
To describe the physical reality, there are two ways of constructing the dynamical equation of field, differential formalism and integral formalism. The importance of this fact is firstly emphasized by Yang in case of gauge field [Phys. Rev. Lett. 33 (1974) 445], where the fact has given rise to a deeper understanding for Aharonov-Bohm phase and magnetic monopole [Phys. Rev. D 12 (1975) 3845]. In this paper we shall point out that such a fact also holds in general wave function of matter, it may give rise to a deeper understanding for Berry phase. Most importantly, we shall prove a point that, for general wave function of matter, in the adiabatic limit, there is an intrinsic difference between its integral formalism and differential formalism. It is neglect of this difference that leads to an inconsistency of quantum adiabatic theorem pointed out by Marzlin and Sanders [Phys. Rev. Lett. 93 (2004) 160408]. It has been widely accepted that there is no physical difference of using differential operator or integral operator to construct the dynamical equation of field. Nevertheless, our study shows that the Schrödinger differential equation (i.e., differential formalism for wave function) shall lead to vanishing Berry phase and that the Schrödinger integral equation (i.e., integral formalism for wave function), in the adiabatic limit, can satisfactorily give the Berry phase. Therefore, we reach a conclusion: There are two ways of describing physical reality, differential formalism and integral formalism; but the integral formalism is a unique way of complete description. (general)
Uncertainty in hydrological signatures
McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida
2015-04-01
Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Levinsen, Karin Tweddell; Sørensen, Birgitte Holm
2013-01-01
are examined and the relation between network society competences, learners’ informal learning strategies and ICT in formalized school settings over time is studied. The authors find that aspects of ICT like multimodality, intuitive interaction design and instant feedback invites an informal bricoleur approach....... When integrated into certain designs for teaching and learning, this allows for Formalized Informal Learning and support is found for network society competences building....
Integrated formal operations plan
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cort, G.; Dearholt, W.; Donahue, S.; Frank, J.; Perkins, B.; Tyler, R.; Wrye, J.
1994-01-05
The concept of formal operations (that is, a collection of business practices to assure effective, accountable operations) has vexed the Laboratory for many years. To date most attempts at developing such programs have been based upon rigid, compliance-based interpretations of a veritable mountain of Department of Energy (DOE) orders, directives, notices, and standards. These DOE dictates seldom take the broad view but focus on highly specialized programs isolated from the overall context of formal operations. The result is a confusing array of specific, and often contradictory, requirements that produce a patchwork of overlapping niche programs. This unnecessary duplication wastes precious resources, dramatically increases the complexity of our work processes, and communicates a sense of confusion to our customers and regulators. Coupled with the artificial divisions that have historically existed among the Laboratory`s formal operations organizations (quality assurance, configuration management, records management, training, etc.), this approach has produced layers of increasingly vague and complex formal operations plans, each of which interprets its parent and adds additional requirements of its own. Organizational gridlock ensues whenever an activity attempts to implement these bureaucratic monstrosities. The integrated formal operations plan presented is to establish a set of requirements that must be met by an integrated formal operations program, assign responsibilities for implementation and operation of the program, and specify criteria against which the performance of the program will be measured. The accountable line manager specifies the items, processes, and information (the controlled elements) to which the formal operations program specified applies. The formal operations program is implemented using a graded approach based on the level of importance of the various controlled elements and the scope of the activities in which they are involved.
Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis
Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.
2014-12-01
The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify
The simplest formal argument for fitness optimization
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
The Formal Darwinism Project aims to provide a formal argument linking population genetics to fitness optimization, which of necessity includes defining fitness. This bridges the gulf between those biologists who assume that natural selection leads to something close to fitness optimization and those biologists who believe ...
A computational formalization for partial evaluation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hatcliff, John; Danvy, Olivier
1997-01-01
We formalize a partial evaluator for Eugenio Moggi's computational metalanguage. This formalization gives an evaluation-order independent view of binding-time analysis and program specialization, including a proper treatment of call unfolding. It also enables us to express the essence of `control...
An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM
2009-01-01
Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.
Liu, Baoding
2015-01-01
When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...
Informal work and formal plans
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dalsted, Rikke Juul; Hølge-Hazelton, Bibi; Kousgaard, Marius Brostrøm
2012-01-01
trajectories. METHODS AND THEORY: An in-depth case study of patient trajectories at a Danish hospital and surrounding municipality using individual interviews with patients. Theory about trajectory and work by Strauss was included. RESULTS: Patients continuously took initiatives to organize their treatment...... and care. They initiated processes in the trajectories, and acquired information, which they used to form their trajectories. Patients presented problems to the healthcare professionals in order to get proper help when needed. DISCUSSION: Work done by patients was invisible and not perceived as work....... The patients' requests were not sufficiently supported in the professional organisation of work or formal planning. Patients' insertion and use of information in their trajectories challenged professional views and working processes. And the design of the formal pathway models limits the patients' active...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
du Gay, Paul; Lopdrup-Hjorth, Thomas
2016-01-01
term this ‘fear of the formal’, outlining key elements of its genealogy and exploring its contemporary manifestation in relation to recent and ongoing reforms of organisational life in a range of contexts. At the same time, we seek to indicate the continuing constitutive significance of formality...
Formalization of Medical Guidelines
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Peleška, Jan; Anger, Z.; Buchtela, David; Šebesta, K.; Tomečková, Marie; Veselý, Arnošt; Zvára, K.; Zvárová, Jana
2005-01-01
Roč. 1, - (2005), s. 133-141 ISSN 1801-5603 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET200300413 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : GLIF model * formalization of guidelines * prevention of cardiovascular diseases Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science
Readings in Formal Epistemology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
‘Formal epistemology’ is a term coined in the late 1990s for a new constellation of interests in philosophy,the roots of which are found in earlier works of epistemologists, philosophers of science, and logicians. It addresses a growing agenda of problems concerning knowledge, belief, certainty, ...
Criteria for logical formalization
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Peregrin, Jaroslav; Svoboda, Vladimír
2013-01-01
Roč. 190, č. 14 (2013), s. 2897-2924 ISSN 0039-7857 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/10/1279 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : logic * logical form * formalization * reflective equilibrium Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion Impact factor: 0.637, year: 2013
1991-10-01
SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES engineering management information systems method formalization 60 information engineering process modeling 16 PRICE...CODE information systems requirements definition methods knowlede acquisition methods systems engineering 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION ji. SECURITY... Management , Inc., Santa Monica, California. CORYNEN, G. C., 1975, A Mathematical Theory of Modeling and Simula- tion. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rand, John; Torm, Nina Elisabeth
2012-01-01
Based on unique panel data consisting of both formal and informal firms, this paper uses a matched double difference approach to examine the relationship between legal status and firm level outcomes in micro, small and medium manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam. Controlling for determinin...
Formalizing physical security procedures
Meadows, C.; Pavlovic, Dusko
Although the problems of physical security emerged more than 10,000 years before the problems of computer security, no formal methods have been developed for them, and the solutions have been evolving slowly, mostly through social procedures. But as the traffic on physical and social networks is now
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kuijper, J.C.; Oppe, J.; Klein Meulekamp, R.; Koning, H. [NRG - Fuels, Actinides and Isotopes group, Petten (Netherlands)
2005-07-01
Some years ago a methodology was developed at NRG for the calculation of 'density-to-density' and 'one-group cross section-to-density' sensitivity matrices and covariance matrices for final nuclide densities for burnup schemes consisting of multiple sets of flux/spectrum and burnup calculations. The applicability of the methodology was then demonstrated by calculations of BR3 MOX pin irradiation experiments employing multi-group cross section uncertainty data from the EAF4 data library. A recent development is the extension of this methodology to enable its application in combination with the OCTOPUS-MCNP-FISPACT/ORIGEN Monte Carlo burnup scheme. This required some extensions to the sensitivity matrix calculation tool CASEMATE. The extended methodology was applied on the 'HTR Plutonium Cell Burnup Benchmark' to calculate the uncertainties (covariances) in the final densities, as far as these uncertainties are caused by uncertainties in cross sections. Up to 600 MWd/kg these uncertainties are larger than the differences between the code systems. However, it should be kept in mind that the calculated uncertainties are based on EAF4 uncertainty data. It is not exactly clear on beforehand what a proper set of associated (MCNP) cross sections and covariances would yield in terms of final uncertainties in calculated densities. This will be investigated, by the same formalism, once these data becomes available. It should be noted that the studies performed up till the present date are mainly concerned with the influence of uncertainties in cross sections. The influence of uncertainties in the decay constants, although included in the formalism, is not considered further. Also the influence of other uncertainties (such as -geometrical- modelling approximations) has been left out of consideration for the time being. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuijper, J.C.; Oppe, J.; Klein Meulekamp, R.; Koning, H.
2005-01-01
Some years ago a methodology was developed at NRG for the calculation of 'density-to-density' and 'one-group cross section-to-density' sensitivity matrices and covariance matrices for final nuclide densities for burnup schemes consisting of multiple sets of flux/spectrum and burnup calculations. The applicability of the methodology was then demonstrated by calculations of BR3 MOX pin irradiation experiments employing multi-group cross section uncertainty data from the EAF4 data library. A recent development is the extension of this methodology to enable its application in combination with the OCTOPUS-MCNP-FISPACT/ORIGEN Monte Carlo burnup scheme. This required some extensions to the sensitivity matrix calculation tool CASEMATE. The extended methodology was applied on the 'HTR Plutonium Cell Burnup Benchmark' to calculate the uncertainties (covariances) in the final densities, as far as these uncertainties are caused by uncertainties in cross sections. Up to 600 MWd/kg these uncertainties are larger than the differences between the code systems. However, it should be kept in mind that the calculated uncertainties are based on EAF4 uncertainty data. It is not exactly clear on beforehand what a proper set of associated (MCNP) cross sections and covariances would yield in terms of final uncertainties in calculated densities. This will be investigated, by the same formalism, once these data becomes available. It should be noted that the studies performed up till the present date are mainly concerned with the influence of uncertainties in cross sections. The influence of uncertainties in the decay constants, although included in the formalism, is not considered further. Also the influence of other uncertainties (such as -geometrical- modelling approximations) has been left out of consideration for the time being. (authors)
Car, Nicholas; Cox, Simon; Fitch, Peter
2015-04-01
(PROV-O Entity and Activity classes) have UncertML elements recorded. This methodology is intentionally flexible to allow uncertainty metadata in many forms, not limited to UncertML. While the more formal representation of uncertainty metadata is desirable (using UncertProv elements to implement the UncertML conceptual model ), this will not always be possible, and any uncertainty data stored will be better than none. Since the UncertProv ontology contains a superset of UncertML elements to facilitate the representation of non-UncertML uncertainty data, it could easily be extended to include other formal uncertainty conceptual models thus allowing non-UncertML propagation calculations.
Duerdoth, Ian
2009-01-01
The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas
2002-01-01
Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...
Towards Formal Implementation of PUS Standard
Ilić, D.
2009-05-01
As an effort to promote the reuse of on-board and ground systems ESA developed a standard for packet telemetry and telecommand - PUS. It defines a set of standard service models with the corresponding structures of the associated telemetry and telecommand packets. Various missions then can choose to implement those standard PUS services that best conform to their specific requirements. In this paper we propose a formal development (based on the Event-B method) of reusable service patterns, which can be instantiated for concrete application. Our formal models allow us to formally express and verify specific service properties including various telecommand and telemetry packet structure validation.
Combining Formal, Non-Formal and Informal Learning for Workforce Skill Development
Misko, Josie
2008-01-01
This literature review, undertaken for Australian Industry Group, shows how multiple variations and combinations of formal, informal and non-formal learning, accompanied by various government incentives and organisational initiatives (including job redesign, cross-skilling, multi-skilling, diversified career pathways, action learning projects,…
Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty
Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.
2018-05-01
Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.
Simulation codes and the impact of validation/uncertainty requirements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sills, H.E.
1995-01-01
Several of the OECD/CSNI members have adapted a proposed methodology for code validation and uncertainty assessment. Although the validation process adapted by members has a high degree of commonality, the uncertainty assessment processes selected are more variable, ranaing from subjective to formal. This paper describes the validation and uncertainty assessment process, the sources of uncertainty, methods of reducing uncertainty, and methods of assessing uncertainty.Examples are presented from the Ontario Hydro application of the validation methodology and uncertainty assessment to the system thermal hydraulics discipline and the TUF (1) system thermal hydraulics code. (author)
Evaluating prediction uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McKay, M.D.
1995-03-01
The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented
A computational formalization for partial evaluation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hatcliff, John; Danvy, Olivier
1996-01-01
We formalize a partial evaluator for Eugenio Moggi's computational metalanguage. This formalization gives an evaluation-order independent view of binding-time analysis and program specialization, including a proper treatment of call unfolding. It also enables us to express the essence of `control......-based binding-time improvements' for let expressions. Specically, we prove that the binding-time improvements given by `continuation-based specialization' can be expressed in the metalanguage via monadic laws....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen
This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...
Sumida Huaman, Elizabeth; Valdiviezo, Laura Alicia
2014-01-01
In this article, we propose to approach Indigenous education beyond the formal/non-formal dichotomy. We argue that there is a critical need to conscientiously include Indigenous knowledge in education processes from the school to the community; particularly, when formal systems exclude Indigenous cultures and languages. Based on ethnographic…
Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran
2016-01-01
This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.
Formalizing the concept of sound.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kaper, H. G.; Tipei, S.
1999-08-03
The notion of formalized music implies that a musical composition can be described in mathematical terms. In this article we explore some formal aspects of music and propose a framework for an abstract approach.
Formal Analysis of Domain Models
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Bharadwaj, Ramesh
2002-01-01
Recently, there has been a great deal of interest in the application of formal methods, in particular, precise formal notations and automatic analysis tools for the creation and analysis of requirements specifications (i.e...
Formalization of Database Systems -- and a Formal Definition of {IMS}
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bjørner, Dines; Løvengreen, Hans Henrik
1982-01-01
Drawing upon an analogy between Programming Language Systems and Database Systems we outline the requirements that architectural specifications of database systems must futfitl, and argue that only formal, mathematical definitions may 6atisfy these. Then we illustrate home aspects and touch upon...... come ueee of formal definitions of data models and databaee management systems. A formal model of INS will carry this discussion. Finally we survey some of the exkting literature on formal definitions of database systems. The emphasis will be on constructive definitions in the denotationul semantics...... style of the VCM: Vienna Development Nethd. The role of formal definitions in international standardiaation efforts is briefly mentioned....
Formalisms for reuse and systems integration
Rubin, Stuart
2015-01-01
Reuse and integration are defined as synergistic concepts, where reuse addresses how to minimize redundancy in the creation of components; while, integration focuses on component composition. Integration supports reuse and vice versa. These related concepts support the design of software and systems for maximizing performance while minimizing cost. Knowledge, like data, is subject to reuse; and, each can be interpreted as the other. This means that inherent complexity, a measure of the potential utility of a system, is directly proportional to the extent to which it maximizes reuse and integration. Formal methods can provide an appropriate context for the rigorous handling of these synergistic concepts. Furthermore, formal languages allow for non ambiguous model specification; and, formal verification techniques provide support for insuring the validity of reuse and integration mechanisms. This edited book includes 12 high quality research papers written by experts in formal aspects of reuse and integratio...
Topical Roots of Formal Dialectic
Krabbe, Erik C. W.
Formal dialectic has its roots in ancient dialectic. We can trace this influence in Charles Hamblin's book on fallacies, in which he introduced his first formal dialectical systems. Earlier, Paul Lorenzen proposed systems of dialogical logic, which were in fact formal dialectical systems avant la
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, R.E.
1982-03-01
An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software
Formal Epistemology and New Paradigm Psychology of Reasoning
Pfeifer, Niki; Douven, Igor
This position paper advocates combining formal epistemology and the new paradigm psychology of reasoning in the studies of conditionals and reasoning with uncertainty. The new paradigm psychology of reasoning is characterized by the use of probability theory as a rationality framework instead of
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Diana-Maria Drigă
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The concept of resilience has represented during the recent years a leading concern both in Romania, within the European Union and worldwide. Specialists in economics, management, finance, legal sciences, political sciences, sociology, psychology, grant a particular interest to this concept. Multidisciplinary research of resilience has materialized throughout the time in multiple conceptualizations and theorizing, but without being a consensus between specialists in terms of content, specificity and scope. Through this paper it is intended to clarify the concept of resilience, achieving an exploration of the evolution of this concept in ecological, social and economic environment. At the same time, the paper presents aspects of feedback mechanisms and proposes a formalization of resilience using the logic and mathematical analysis.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Levinsen, Karin; Sørensen, Birgitte Holm
2011-01-01
and other relevant stakeholders, as well as participant observations in the classroom documented by thick descriptions, formal and informal interviews and focus group interviews. The aim of the study was to explore and identify relations between designs for teaching and learning and the students' learning......This paper presents findings from a large-scale longitudinal, qualitative study - Project ICT and Learning (PIL) - that engaged the participation of eight primary schools in Denmark, and was conducted between 2006 and 2008. The research design was based on action research, involving teachers...... of school subjects within defined learning goals and curricula, along with various implementations of ICT in the pedagogical everyday practice (Levinsen & Sørensen 2008). However, another research strand - the topic of this paper - emerged during the project's life cycle as a consequence of ongoing changes...
Application of Formal Methods in Software Engineering
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adriana Morales
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The purpose of this research work is to examine: (1 why are necessary the formal methods for software systems today, (2 high integrity systems through the methodology C-by-C –Correctness-by-Construction–, and (3 an affordable methodology to apply formal methods in software engineering. The research process included reviews of the literature through Internet, in publications and presentations in events. Among the Research results found that: (1 there is increasing the dependence that the nations have, the companies and people of software systems, (2 there is growing demand for software Engineering to increase social trust in the software systems, (3 exist methodologies, as C-by-C, that can provide that level of trust, (4 Formal Methods constitute a principle of computer science that can be applied software engineering to perform reliable process in software development, (5 software users have the responsibility to demand reliable software products, and (6 software engineers have the responsibility to develop reliable software products. Furthermore, it is concluded that: (1 it takes more research to identify and analyze other methodologies and tools that provide process to apply the Formal Software Engineering methods, (2 Formal Methods provide an unprecedented ability to increase the trust in the exactitude of the software products and (3 by development of new methodologies and tools is being achieved costs are not more a disadvantage for application of formal methods.
Formality of the Chinese collective leadership.
Li, Haiying; Graesser, Arthur C
2016-09-01
We investigated the linguistic patterns in the discourse of four generations of the collective leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) from 1921 to 2012. The texts of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao were analyzed using computational linguistic techniques (a Chinese formality score) to explore the persuasive linguistic features of the leaders in the contexts of power phase, the nation's education level, power duration, and age. The study was guided by the elaboration likelihood model of persuasion, which includes a central route (represented by formal discourse) versus a peripheral route (represented by informal discourse) to persuasion. The results revealed that these leaders adopted the formal, central route more when they were in power than before they came into power. The nation's education level was a significant factor in the leaders' adoption of the persuasion strategy. The leaders' formality also decreased with their increasing age and in-power times. However, the predictability of these factors for formality had subtle differences among the different types of leaders. These results enhance our understanding of the Chinese collective leadership and the role of formality in politically persuasive messages.
Advancing Uncertainty: Untangling and Discerning Related Concepts
Janice Penrod
2002-01-01
Methods of advancing concepts within the qualitative paradigm have been developed and articulated. In this section, I describe methodological perspectives of a project designed to advance the concept of uncertainty using multiple qualitative methods. Through a series of earlier studies, the concept of uncertainty arose repeatedly in varied contexts, working its way into prominence, and warranting further investigation. Processes of advanced concept analysis were used to initiate the formal in...
Justification for recommended uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.
2007-01-01
The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1
Chemical model reduction under uncertainty
Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.
2016-01-01
We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.
Chemical model reduction under uncertainty
Najm, Habib
2016-01-05
We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael
2005-01-01
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c
Spinor formalism and complex-vector formalism of general relativity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Han-ying, G.; Yong-shi, W.; Gendao, L.
1974-01-01
In this paper, using E. Cartan's exterior calculus, we give the spinor form of the structure equations, which leads naturally to the Newman--Penrose equations. Furthermore, starting from the spinor spaces and the el (2C) algebra, we construct the general complex-vector formalism of general relativity. We find that both the Cahen--Debever--Defrise complex-vector formalism and that of Brans are its special cases. Thus, the spinor formalism and the complex-vector formalism of general relativity are unified on the basis of the uni-modular group SL(2C) and its Lie algebra
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)
1997-12-01
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)
1997-12-01
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)
1998-04-01
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.
Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN
Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.
2012-01-01
Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difﬁculty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of ﬂow pathways between ecosystems and human beneﬁciaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally deﬁned deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to ﬁll data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pourgol-Mohamad, Mohammad; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali
2013-01-01
This paper discusses an approach called Integrated Methodology for Thermal-Hydraulics Uncertainty Analysis (IMTHUA) to characterize and integrate a wide range of uncertainties associated with the best estimate models and complex system codes used for nuclear power plant safety analyses. Examples of applications include complex thermal hydraulic and fire analysis codes. In identifying and assessing uncertainties, the proposed methodology treats the complex code as a 'white box', thus explicitly treating internal sub-model uncertainties in addition to the uncertainties related to the inputs to the code. The methodology accounts for uncertainties related to experimental data used to develop such sub-models, and efficiently propagates all uncertainties during best estimate calculations. Uncertainties are formally analyzed and probabilistically treated using a Bayesian inference framework. This comprehensive approach presents the results in a form usable in most other safety analyses such as the probabilistic safety assessment. The code output results are further updated through additional Bayesian inference using any available experimental data, for example from thermal hydraulic integral test facilities. The approach includes provisions to account for uncertainties associated with user-specified options, for example for choices among alternative sub-models, or among several different correlations. Complex time-dependent best-estimate calculations are computationally intense. The paper presents approaches to minimize computational intensity during the uncertainty propagation. Finally, the paper will report effectiveness and practicality of the methodology with two applications to a complex thermal-hydraulics system code as well as a complex fire simulation code. In case of multiple alternative models, several techniques, including dynamic model switching, user-controlled model selection, and model mixing, are discussed. (authors)
Formalized Epistemology, Logic, and Grammar
Bitbol, Michel
The task of a formal epistemology is defined. It appears that a formal epistemology must be a generalization of "logic" in the sense of Wittgenstein's Tractatus. The generalization is required because, whereas logic presupposes a strict relation between activity and language, this relation may be broken in some domains of experimental enquiry (e.g., in microscopic physics). However, a formal epistemology should also retain a major feature of Wittgenstein's "logic": It must not be a discourse about scientific knowledge, but rather a way of making manifest the structures usually implicit in knowledge-gaining activity. This strategy is applied to the formalism of quantum mechanics.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Korzenevica, Marina
2016-01-01
Following the civil war of 1996–2006, there was a dramatic increase in the labor mobility of young men and the inclusion of young women in formal education, which led to the transformation of the political landscape of rural Nepal. Mobility and schooling represent a level of prestige that rural...... politics. It analyzes how formal education and mobility either challenge or reinforce traditional gendered norms which dictate a lowly position for young married women in the household and their absence from community politics. The article concludes that women are simultaneously excluded and included from...... community politics. On the one hand, their mobility and decision-making powers decrease with the increase in the labor mobility of men and their newly gained education is politically devalued when compared to the informal education that men gain through mobility, but on the other hand, schooling strengthens...
Quantifying measurement uncertainty and spatial variability in the context of model evaluation
Choukulkar, A.; Brewer, A.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Bonin, T.; Banta, R. M.; Sandberg, S.; Weickmann, A. M.; Djalalova, I.; McCaffrey, K.; Bianco, L.; Wilczak, J. M.; Newman, J. F.; Draxl, C.; Lundquist, J. K.; Wharton, S.; Olson, J.; Kenyon, J.; Marquis, M.
2017-12-01
In an effort to improve wind forecasts for the wind energy sector, the Department of Energy and the NOAA funded the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). As part of the WFIP2 field campaign, a large suite of in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation was deployed to the Columbia River Gorge in Oregon and Washington from October 2015 - March 2017. The array of instrumentation deployed included 915-MHz wind profiling radars, sodars, wind- profiling lidars, and scanning lidars. The role of these instruments was to provide wind measurements at high spatial and temporal resolution for model evaluation and improvement of model physics. To properly determine model errors, the uncertainties in instrument-model comparisons need to be quantified accurately. These uncertainties arise from several factors such as measurement uncertainty, spatial variability, and interpolation of model output to instrument locations, to name a few. In this presentation, we will introduce a formalism to quantify measurement uncertainty and spatial variability. The accuracy of this formalism will be tested using existing datasets such as the eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment (XPIA) campaign. Finally, the uncertainties in wind measurement and the spatial variability estimates from the WFIP2 field campaign will be discussed to understand the challenges involved in model evaluation.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bjørner, Dines; Havelund, Klaus
2014-01-01
In this "40 years of formal methods" essay we shall first delineate, Sect. 1, what we mean by method, formal method, computer science, computing science, software engineering, and model-oriented and algebraic methods. Based on this, we shall characterize a spectrum from specification-oriented met...
Leibniz' First Formalization of Syllogistics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Robering, Klaus
2014-01-01
of letters just those which belong to the useful, i.e., valid, modes. The set of codes of valid modes turns out to be a so-called "regular" language (in the sense of formal-language-theory). Leibniz' formalization of syllogistics in his Dissertatio thus contains an estimation of the computational complexity...
Seniority in projection operator formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ullah, N.
1976-01-01
It is shown that the concept of seniority can be introduced in projection operator formalism through the use of the operator Q, which has been defined by de-Shalit and Talmi. The usefulness of seniority concept in projection operator formalism is discussed. An example of four nucleons in j=3/2 configuration is given for illustrative purposes
A Formalization of Linkage Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ingolfsdottir, Anna; Christensen, A.I.; Hansen, Jens A.
In this report a formalization of genetic linkage analysis is introduced. Linkage analysis is a computationally hard biomathematical method, which purpose is to locate genes on the human genome. It is rooted in the new area of bioinformatics and no formalization of the method has previously been ...
The Transition to Formal Thinking in Mathematics
Tall, David
2008-01-01
This paper focuses on the changes in thinking involved in the transition from school mathematics to formal proof in pure mathematics at university. School mathematics is seen as a combination of visual representations, including geometry and graphs, together with symbolic calculations and manipulations. Pure mathematics in university shifts…
Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shull, A.H.
1997-01-01
An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper
New procedure for departure formalities
HR & GS Departments
2011-01-01
As part of the process of simplifying procedures and rationalising administrative processes, the HR and GS Departments have introduced new personalised departure formalities on EDH. These new formalities have applied to students leaving CERN since last year and from 17 October 2011 this procedure will be extended to the following categories of CERN personnel: Staff members, Fellows and Associates. It is planned to extend this electronic procedure to the users in due course. What purpose do departure formalities serve? The departure formalities are designed to ensure that members of the personnel contact all the relevant services in order to return any necessary items (equipment, cards, keys, dosimeter, electronic equipment, books, etc.) and are aware of all the benefits to which they are entitled on termination of their contract. The new departure formalities on EDH have the advantage of tailoring the list of services that each member of the personnel must visit to suit his individual contractual and p...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weisbi, C.R.; Oblow, E.M.; Ching, J.; White, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Drischler, J.
1975-08-01
Sensitivity analysis is applied to the study of an air transport benchmark calculation to quantify and distinguish between cross-section and method uncertainties. The boundary detector response was converged with respect to spatial and angular mesh size, P/sub l/ expansion of the scattering kernel, and the number and location of energy grid boundaries. The uncertainty in the detector response due to uncertainties in nuclear data is 17.0 percent (one standard deviation, not including uncertainties in energy and angular distribution) based upon the ENDF/B-IV ''error files'' including correlations in energy and reaction type. Differences of approximately 6 percent can be attributed exclusively to differences in processing multigroup transfer matrices. Formal documentation of the PUFF computer program for the generation of multigroup covariance matrices is presented. (47 figures, 14 tables) (U.S.)
Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kevin Coppersmith
2001-01-01
The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository
Victoria Marshall; Dil Hoda
2009-01-01
One of 18 articles inspired by the Meristem 2007 Forum, "Restorative Commons for Community Health." The articles include interviews, case studies, thought pieces, and interdisciplinary theoretical works that explore the relationship between human health and the urban...
A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making
Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.
2009-01-01
Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.
Formal verification - Robust and efficient code: Introduction to Formal Verification
CERN. Geneva
2016-01-01
In general, FV means "proving that certain properties hold for a given system using formal mathematics". This definition can certainly feel daunting, however, as we will learn, we can reap benefits from the paradigm without digging too deep into ...
Introduction to formal languages
Révész, György E
1991-01-01
Covers all areas, including operations on languages, context-sensitive languages, automata, decidability, syntax analysis, derivation languages, and more. Numerous worked examples, problem exercises, and elegant mathematical proofs. 1983 edition.
Applications of the Decoherence Formalism
Brun, Todd Andrew
In this work the decoherence formalism of quantum mechanics is explored and applied to a number of interesting problems in quantum physics. The boundary between quantum and classical physics is examined, and demonstration made that quantum histories corresponding to classical equations of motion become more probable for a broad class of models, including linear and nonlinear models of Brownian motion. The link between noise, dissipation, and decoherence is studied. This work is then applied to systems which classically exhibit dissipative chaotic dynamics. A theory is explicated for treating these systems, and the ideas are applied to a particular model of the forced, damped Duffing oscillator, which is chaotic for certain parameter values. Differences between classical and quantum chaos are examined, particularly differences arising in the structure of fractal strange attractors, and the conceptual difficulties in framing standard notions of chaos in a quantum system. A brief discussion of previous work on quantum chaos is included, and the differences between Hamiltonian and dissipative chaos pointed out; a somewhat different interpretation of quantum chaos from the standard one is suggested. A class of histories for quantum systems, in phase space rather than configuration space, is studied. Different ways of representing projections in phase space are discussed, and expressions for the probability of phase space histories are derived; conditions for such histories to decohere are also estimated in the semiclassical limit.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Saisset, R.
2004-04-01
This thesis is a contribution to the study of electric power conversion systems including electrochemical devices. A systemic approach draws advantage of the unified Bond Graph formalism in order to model every component as well as the whole system. A state of the art of electrochemical devices for decentralized electric energy generation and storage put emphasis on common phenomena with the aim of developing 'system oriented' generic models. Solid Oxide and Proton Exchange Fuel Cells (SOFC, PEMFC), as well as Lithium Ion batteries, have been modelled through an efficient work with electrochemistry specialists. These models involve an explicit representation, at a macroscopic level, of conversion and irreversible phenomena linked to the chemical reaction and coupled together both in the hydraulic, chemical, thermodynamic, electric and thermal fields. These models are used to study the modularity of the components, particularly the electric and thermal imbalances in the series and parallel fuel cells associations. The systemic approach is also applied to the study of architectures and energy management of electric power generating units involving PEMFC and battery or super-capacitors storage. Different working conditions for the fuel cells are defined and studied, consisting in either voltage or current or power imposed by means of the storage and static converters environment. Identification of parameters and working tests are performed on specially developed test benches so as to validate theoretical results. At last, the method is applied to study a 'sun-racer', an original complex system with embedded photovoltaic generator, electrochemical storage and brush-less wheel motor, wholly modelled in order to compare various energy management onboard the solar vehicle 'Solelhada'. (author)
Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rommel N. Carvalho
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.
Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs
2006-05-10
Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Mohammad Saad Zaghloul Salem
2014-12-24
Dec 24, 2014 ... ome/transcriptome/proteome, experimental induced maps that are intentionally designed and con- ... genetic maps imposed their application in nearly all fields of medical genetics including ..... or genes located adjacent to, or near, them. ...... types of markers, e.g., clinical markers (eye color), genomic.
El Salvador - Formal Technical Education
Millennium Challenge Corporation — With a budget of nearly $20 million, the Formal Technical Education Sub-Activity was designed to strengthen technical and vocational educational institutions in the...
Concepts of formal concept analysis
Žáček, Martin; Homola, Dan; Miarka, Rostislav
2017-07-01
The aim of this article is apply of Formal Concept Analysis on concept of world. Formal concept analysis (FCA) as a methodology of data analysis, information management and knowledge representation has potential to be applied to a verity of linguistic problems. FCA is mathematical theory for concepts and concept hierarchies that reflects an understanding of concept. Formal concept analysis explicitly formalizes extension and intension of a concept, their mutual relationships. A distinguishing feature of FCA is an inherent integration of three components of conceptual processing of data and knowledge, namely, the discovery and reasoning with concepts in data, discovery and reasoning with dependencies in data, and visualization of data, concepts, and dependencies with folding/unfolding capabilities.
Helicity formalism and spin effects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anselmino, M.; Caruso, F.; Piovano, U.
1990-01-01
The helicity formalism and the technique to compute amplitudes for interaction processes involving leptons, quarks, photons and gluons are reviewed. Explicit calculations and examples of exploitation of symmetry properties are shown. The formalism is then applied to the discussion of several hadronic processes and spin effects: the experimental data, when related to the properties of the elementary constituent interactions, show many not understood features. Also the nucleon spin problem is briefly reviewed. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Laval, Katia; Laval, Guy
2013-01-01
Like meteorology, climatology is not an exact science: climate change forecasts necessarily include a share of uncertainty. It is precisely this uncertainty which is brandished and exploited by the opponents to the global warming theory to put into question the estimations of its future consequences. Is it legitimate to predict the future using the past climate data (well documented up to 100000 years BP) or the climates of other planets, taking into account the impreciseness of the measurements and the intrinsic complexity of the Earth's machinery? How is it possible to model a so huge and interwoven system for which any exact description has become impossible? Why water and precipitations play such an important role in local and global forecasts, and how should they be treated? This book written by two physicists answers with simpleness these delicate questions in order to give anyone the possibility to build his own opinion about global warming and the need to act rapidly
Traditional and formal education: Means of improving grasscutter ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The study concludes that both traditional and non-formal education are important for the development and efficiency of grasscutter farming in Ogun Waterside Local Government Area of Ogun State. The following are the recommendations of the study: revision of the curriculum of formal schools to include items that inculcate ...
Uncertainty and Decision Making: Examples of Some Possible New Frontiers
Silliman, S. E.; Rodak, C. M.; Bolster, D.; Saavedra, K.; Evans, W.
2011-12-01
The concept of decision making under uncertainty for groundwater systems represents an exciting area of research and application. In this presentation, three examples are briefly introduced which represent possible new applications of risk and decision making under uncertainty. In the most classic of the three examples, a probabilistic strategy is considered within the context of management / assessment of proposed changes in land-use in the vicinity of a public water-supply well. Focused on health-risk related to contamination at the well, the analysis includes uncertainties in source location / strength, groundwater flow / transport, human exposure, and human health risk. The second example involves application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to the evaluation of development projects in rural regions of developing countries. PRA combined with Fault Tree Analysis provides a structure for analysis of the impact of data uncertainties on the estimation of health risk resulting from failure of multiple components of new water-resource systems. The third is an extension of the concept of "risk compensation" to the analysis of potential long-term risk associated with new water resource projects. Of direct interest here is the appearance of new risk to the public, such as introduction of new disease pathways or new sources of contamination of the source waters. As a result of limitations on conceptual model and/or limitations on data, this type of risk is often difficult to identify / assess, and is therefore not commonly included in formal decision-making efforts: it may however seriously impact the long-term net benefit of a water resource project. The goal of presenting these three examples is to illustrate the breadth of possible application of uncertainty / risk analyses beyond the more classic applications to groundwater remediation and protection.
Herrold, Ardis; Bauer, Amanda, Dr.; Peterson, J. Matt; Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Education and Public Outreach Team
2018-01-01
The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope will usher in a new age of astronomical data exploration for science educators and students. LSST data sets will be large, deep, and dynamic, and will establish a time-domain record that will extend over a decade. They will be used to provide engaging, relevant learning experiences.The EPO Team will develop online investigations using authentic LSST data that offer varying levels of challenge and depth by the start of telescope operations, slated to begin in 2022. The topics will cover common introductory astronomy concepts, and will align with the four science domains of LSST: The Milky Way, the changing sky (transients), solar system (moving) objects, and dark matter and dark energy.Online Jupyter notebooks will make LSST data easily available to access and analyze by students at the advanced middle school through college levels. Using online notebooks will circumvent common obstacles caused by firewalls, bandwidth issues, and the need to download software, as they will be accessible from any computer or tablet with internet access. Although the LSST EPO Jupyter notebooks are Python-based, a knowledge of programming will not be required to use them.Each topical investigation will include teacher and student versions of Jupyter notebooks, instructional videos, and access to a suite of support materials including a forum, and professional development training and tutorial videos.Jupyter notebooks will contain embedded widgets to process data, eliminating the need to use external spreadsheets and plotting software. Students will be able to analyze data by using some of the existing modules already developed for professional astronomers. This will shorten the time needed to conduct investigations and will shift the emphasis to understanding the underlying science themes, which is often lost with novice learners.
Saif, Perveen; Reba, Amjad; ud Din, Jalal
2017-01-01
This study was designed to compare the subject knowledge of B.Ed graduates of formal and non-formal teacher education systems. The population of the study included all teachers from Girls High and Higher Secondary Schools both from private and public sectors from the district of Peshawar. Out of the total population, twenty schools were randomly…
Evaluation of nuclear data and their uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Story, J.S.
1984-01-01
Some topics studied within the Winfrith Nuclear Data Group in recent years, and still of current importance, are briefly reviewed. Moderator cross-sections; criteria to be met for reactor applications are listed; thermal neutron scattering theory is summarized, with the approximations used to facilitate comutation; neutron age data test stringently the accuracy of epithermal cross-sections; a modification of the CFS effective range treatment for S-wave scatter by H is presented, and new calculations with up-to-date slow neutron scattering data are advocated. Use of multilevel resonance formalisms; the top bound resonance should be included explicitly in calculations; additive statistical terms are given to allow for ''distant'' negative and positive resonances, in both MLBW and R-M formalisms; formulae are presented for estimating R-M level shifts for 1>0 resonances. Resonance mean spacings; the Syson-Mehta optimum estimator is utilised in a method which up-dates the staircase plot. Resonances of 56 Fe have been resolved to approx. 800keV, over which range the level density for given Jπ should increase 2-fold; this variation is allowed for in the mean spacing calculations. Fission-product decay power; present status of integral data and summation calculations for 235 U and 239 Pu fissions is summarized, with a variety of intercomparisons including 239 Pu/ 235 U ratios. Data uncertainties are considered, but the sequence of data on GAMMAsub(γ) for the 27.8keV resonance of 56 Fe provided a cautionary example. (author)
A FORMALISM FOR FUZZY BUSINESS RULES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vasile Mazilescu
2015-05-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide a formalism for fuzzy rule bases, included in our prototype system FUZZY_ENTERPRISE. This framework can be used in Distributed Knowledge Management Systems (DKMSs, real-time interdisciplinary decision making systems, that often require increasing technical support to high quality decisions in a timely manner. The language of the first-degree predicates facilitates the formulation of complex knowledge in a rigorous way, imposing appropriate reasoning techniques.
Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Data Generated for a Model Scramjet Isolator Flowfield
Baurle, R. A.; Axdahl, E. L.
2017-01-01
Computational fluid dynamics is now considered to be an indispensable tool for the design and development of scramjet engine components. Unfortunately, the quantification of uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, so the degree of confidence associated with the numerical results remains exclusively with the subject matter expert that generated them. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Given the limitations of current hypersonic ground test facilities, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the hypersonics community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion system. The present effort describes a simple, relatively low cost, nonintrusive approach to uncertainty quantification that includes the basic ingredients required to handle both aleatoric (random) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) sources of uncertainty. The nonintrusive nature of the approach allows the computational fluid dynamicist to perform the uncertainty quantification with the flow solver treated as a "black box". Moreover, a large fraction of the process can be automated, allowing the uncertainty assessment to be readily adapted into the engineering design and development workflow. In the present work, the approach is applied to a model scramjet isolator problem where the desire is to validate turbulence closure models in the presence of uncertainty. In this context, the relevant uncertainty sources are determined and accounted for to allow the analyst to delineate turbulence model-form errors from other sources of uncertainty associated with the simulation of the facility flow.
Uncertainty in social dilemmas
Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de
2007-01-01
This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Villesèche, Florence; Josserand, Emmanuel
2017-01-01
/organisations and the wider social group of women in business. Research limitations/implications: The authors focus on the distinction between external and internal formal women-only networks while also acknowledging the broader diversity that can characterise such networks. Their review provides the reader with an insight...... member level, the authors suggest that such networks can be of value for organisations and the wider social group of women in management and leadership positions.......Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to review the emerging literature on formal women-only business networks and outline propositions to develop this under-theorised area of knowledge and stimulate future research. Design/methodology/approach: The authors review the existing literature on formal...
The role of formal specifications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McHugh, J.
1994-01-01
The role of formal requirements specification is discussed under the premise that the primary purpose of such specifications is to facilitate clear and unambiguous communications among the communities of interest for a given project. An example is presented in which the failure to reach such an understanding resulted in an accident at a chemical plant. Following the example, specification languages based on logical formalisms and notations are considered. These are rejected as failing to serve the communications needs of diverse communities. The notion of a specification as a surrogate for a program is also considered and rejected. The paper ends with a discussion of the type of formal notation that will serve the communications role and several encouraging developments are noted
Formal language constrained path problems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barrett, C.; Jacob, R.; Marathe, M.
1997-07-08
In many path finding problems arising in practice, certain patterns of edge/vertex labels in the labeled graph being traversed are allowed/preferred, while others are disallowed. Motivated by such applications as intermodal transportation planning, the authors investigate the complexity of finding feasible paths in a labeled network, where the mode choice for each traveler is specified by a formal language. The main contributions of this paper include the following: (1) the authors show that the problem of finding a shortest path between a source and destination for a traveler whose mode choice is specified as a context free language is solvable efficiently in polynomial time, when the mode choice is specified as a regular language they provide algorithms with improved space and time bounds; (2) in contrast, they show that the problem of finding simple paths between a source and a given destination is NP-hard, even when restricted to very simple regular expressions and/or very simple graphs; (3) for the class of treewidth bounded graphs, they show that (i) the problem of finding a regular language constrained simple path between source and a destination is solvable in polynomial time and (ii) the extension to finding context free language constrained simple paths is NP-complete. Several extensions of these results are presented in the context of finding shortest paths with additional constraints. These results significantly extend the results in [MW95]. As a corollary of the results, they obtain a polynomial time algorithm for the BEST k-SIMILAR PATH problem studied in [SJB97]. The previous best algorithm was given by [SJB97] and takes exponential time in the worst case.
Formal connections in deformation quantization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Masulli, Paolo
The field of this thesis is deformation quantization, and we consider mainly symplectic manifolds equipped with a star product. After reviewing basics in complex geometry, we introduce quantization, focusing on geometric quantization and deformation quantization. The latter is defined as a star...... characteristic class, and that formal connections form an affine space over the derivations of the star products. Moreover, if the parameter space for the family of star products is contractible, we obtain that any two flat formal connections are gauge equivalent via a self-equivalence of the family of star...
Optimization under Uncertainty
Lopez, Rafael H.
2016-01-06
The goal of this poster is to present the main approaches to optimization of engineering systems in the presence of uncertainties. We begin by giving an insight about robust optimization. Next, we detail how to deal with probabilistic constraints in optimization, the so called the reliability based design. Subsequently, we present the risk optimization approach, which includes the expected costs of failure in the objective function. After that the basic description of each approach is given, the projects developed by CORE are presented. Finally, the main current topic of research of CORE is described.
Optimizing production under uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Svend
This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept...... of state-contingent production functions and a definition of inputs including both sort of input, activity and alloca-tion technology. It also analyses production decisions where production is combined with trading in state-contingent claims such as insurance contracts. The final part discusses...
Uncertainty analysis for secondary energy distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gerstl, S.A.W.
1978-01-01
In many transport calculations the integral design parameter of interest (response) is determined mainly by secondary particles such as gamma rays from (n,γ) reactions or secondary neutrons from inelastic scattering events or (n,2n) reactions. Standard sensitivity analysis usually allows to calculate the sensitivities to the production cross sections of such secondaries, but an extended formalism is needed to also obtain the sensitivities to the energy distribution of the generated secondary particles. For a 30-group standard cross-section set 84% of all non-zero table positions pertain to the description of secondary energy distributions (SED's) and only 16% to the actual reaction cross sections. Therefore, any sensitivity/uncertainty analysis which does not consider the effects of SED's is incomplete and neglects most of the input data. This paper describes the methods of how sensitivity profiles for SED's are obtained and used to estimate the uncertainty of an integral response due to uncertainties in these SED's. The detailed theory is documented elsewhere and implemented in the LASL sensitivity code SENSIT. SED sensitivity profiles have proven particularly valuable in cross-section uncertainty analyses for fusion reactors. Even when the production cross sections for secondary neutrons were assumed to be without error, the uncertainties in the energy distribution of these secondaries produced appreciable uncertainties in the calculated tritium breeding rate. However, complete error files for SED's are presently nonexistent. Therefore, methods will be described that allow rough error estimates due to estimated SED uncertainties based on integral SED sensitivities
Hump-shape Uncertainty, Agency Costs and Aggregate Fluctuations
Lee, Gabriel; Kevin, Salyer; Strobel, Johannes
2016-01-01
Previously measured uncertainty shocks using the U.S. data show a hump-shape time path: Uncertainty rises for two years before its decline. Current literature on the effects uncertainty on macroeconomics, including housing, has not accounted for this observation. Consequently, the literature on uncertainty and macroeconomics is divided on the effcts and the propagation mechanism of uncertainty on aggregate uctuations. This paper shows that when uncertainty rises and falls over time, th...
International conference on Facets of Uncertainties and Applications
Skowron, Andrzej; Maiti, Manoranjan; Kar, Samarjit
2015-01-01
Since the emergence of the formal concept of probability theory in the seventeenth century, uncertainty has been perceived solely in terms of probability theory. However, this apparently unique link between uncertainty and probability theory has come under investigation a few decades back. Uncertainties are nowadays accepted to be of various kinds. Uncertainty in general could refer to different sense like not certainly known, questionable, problematic, vague, not definite or determined, ambiguous, liable to change, not reliable. In Indian languages, particularly in Sanskrit-based languages, there are other higher levels of uncertainties. It has been shown that several mathematical concepts such as the theory of fuzzy sets, theory of rough sets, evidence theory, possibility theory, theory of complex systems and complex network, theory of fuzzy measures and uncertainty theory can also successfully model uncertainty.
Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.
Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E
2016-01-01
Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
$\\delta N$ formalism from superpotential and holography
Garriga, Jaume; Vernizzi, Filippo
2016-02-16
We consider the superpotential formalism to describe the evolution of scalar fields during inflation, generalizing it to include the case with non-canonical kinetic terms. We provide a characterization of the attractor behaviour of the background evolution in terms of first and second slow-roll parameters (which need not be small). We find that the superpotential is useful in justifying the separate universe approximation from the gradient expansion, and also in computing the spectra of primordial perturbations around attractor solutions in the $\\delta N$ formalism. As an application, we consider a class of models where the background trajectories for the inflaton fields are derived from a product separable superpotential. In the perspective of the holographic inflation scenario, such models are dual to a deformed CFT boundary theory, with $D$ mutually uncorrelated deformation operators. We compute the bulk power spectra of primordial adiabatic and entropy cosmological perturbations, and show that the results...
Formal systems for persuasion dialogue
Prakken, Henry
This article reviews formal systems that regulate persuasion dialogues. In such dialogues two or more participants aim to resolve a difference of opinion, each trying to persuade the other participants to adopt their point of view. Systems for persuasion dialogue have found application in various
Charging transient in polyvinyl formal
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Unknown
401–406. © Indian Academy of Sciences. 401. Charging transient in polyvinyl formal. P K KHARE*, P L JAIN† and R K PANDEY‡. Department of Postgraduate Studies & Research in Physics & Electronics, Rani Durgavati University,. Jabalpur 482 001, India. †Department of Physics, Government PG College, Damoh 470 ...
Formal monkey linguistics : The debate
Schlenker, Philippe; Chemla, Emmanuel; Schel, Anne M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/413333450; Fuller, James; Gautier, Jean Pierre; Kuhn, Jeremy; Veselinović, Dunja; Arnold, Kate; Cäsar, Cristiane; Keenan, Sumir; Lemasson, Alban; Ouattara, Karim; Ryder, Robin; Zuberbühler, Klaus
2016-01-01
We explain why general techniques from formal linguistics can and should be applied to the analysis of monkey communication - in the areas of syntax and especially semantics. An informed look at our recent proposals shows that such techniques needn't rely excessively on categories of human language:
Rotor and wind turbine formalism
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Branlard, Emmanuel Simon Pierre
2017-01-01
The main conventions used in this book for the study of rotors are introduced in this chapter. The main assumptions and notations are provided. The formalism specific to wind turbines is presented. The forces, moments, velocities and dimensionless coefficients used in the study of rotors...
Automatic Testing with Formal Methods
Tretmans, G.J.; Belinfante, Axel
1999-01-01
The use of formal system specifications makes it possible to automate the derivation of test cases from specifications. This allows to automate the whole testing process, not only the test execution part of it. This paper presents the state of the art and future perspectives in testing based on
Formal Methods: Practice and Experience
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Woodcock, Jim; Larsen, Peter Gorm; Bicarregui, Juan
2009-01-01
. Based on this, we discuss the issues surrounding the industrial adoption of formal methods. Finally, we look to the future and describe the development of a Verified Software Repository, part of the worldwide Verified Software Initiative. We introduce the initial projects being used to populate...... the repository, and describe the challenges they address. © 2009 ACM. (146 refs.)...
Rapid research and implementation priority setting for wound care uncertainties.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Trish A Gray
Full Text Available People with complex wounds are more likely to be elderly, living with multimorbidity and wound related symptoms. A variety of products are available for managing complex wounds and a range of healthcare professionals are involved in wound care, yet there is a lack of good evidence to guide practice and services. These factors create uncertainty for those who deliver and those who manage wound care. Formal priority setting for research and implementation topics is needed to more accurately target the gaps in treatment and services. We solicited practitioner and manager uncertainties in wound care and held a priority setting workshop to facilitate a collaborative approach to prioritising wound care-related uncertainties.We recruited healthcare professionals who regularly cared for patients with complex wounds, were wound care specialists or managed wound care services. Participants submitted up to five wound care uncertainties in consultation with their colleagues, via an on-line survey and attended a priority setting workshop. Submitted uncertainties were collated, sorted and categorised according professional group. On the day of the workshop, participants were divided into four groups depending on their profession. Uncertainties submitted by their professional group were viewed, discussed and amended, prior to the first of three individual voting rounds. Participants cast up to ten votes for the uncertainties they judged as being high priority. Continuing in the professional groups, the top 10 uncertainties from each group were displayed, and the process was repeated. Groups were then brought together for a plenary session in which the final priorities were individually scored on a scale of 0-10 by participants. Priorities were ranked and results presented. Nominal group technique was used for generating the final uncertainties, voting and discussions.Thirty-three participants attended the workshop comprising; 10 specialist nurses, 10 district
Rapid research and implementation priority setting for wound care uncertainties
Dumville, Jo C.; Christie, Janice; Cullum, Nicky A.
2017-01-01
Introduction People with complex wounds are more likely to be elderly, living with multimorbidity and wound related symptoms. A variety of products are available for managing complex wounds and a range of healthcare professionals are involved in wound care, yet there is a lack of good evidence to guide practice and services. These factors create uncertainty for those who deliver and those who manage wound care. Formal priority setting for research and implementation topics is needed to more accurately target the gaps in treatment and services. We solicited practitioner and manager uncertainties in wound care and held a priority setting workshop to facilitate a collaborative approach to prioritising wound care-related uncertainties. Methods We recruited healthcare professionals who regularly cared for patients with complex wounds, were wound care specialists or managed wound care services. Participants submitted up to five wound care uncertainties in consultation with their colleagues, via an on-line survey and attended a priority setting workshop. Submitted uncertainties were collated, sorted and categorised according professional group. On the day of the workshop, participants were divided into four groups depending on their profession. Uncertainties submitted by their professional group were viewed, discussed and amended, prior to the first of three individual voting rounds. Participants cast up to ten votes for the uncertainties they judged as being high priority. Continuing in the professional groups, the top 10 uncertainties from each group were displayed, and the process was repeated. Groups were then brought together for a plenary session in which the final priorities were individually scored on a scale of 0–10 by participants. Priorities were ranked and results presented. Nominal group technique was used for generating the final uncertainties, voting and discussions. Results Thirty-three participants attended the workshop comprising; 10 specialist nurses
Uncovering the triple omeron vertex from Wilson line formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chirilli, G. A.; Szymanowski, L.; Wallon, S.
2011-01-01
We compute the triple omeron vertex from the Wilson line formalism, including both planar and nonplanar contributions, and get perfect agreement with the result obtained in the Extended Generalized Logarithmic Approximation based on Reggeon calculus.
Agent-based analysis of organizations : formalization and simulation
Dignum, M.V.; Tick, C.
2007-01-01
Organizational effectiveness depends on many factors, including individual excellence, efficient structures, effective planning and capability to understand and match context requirements. We propose a way to model organizational performance based on a combination of formal models and
Measurement uncertainties in science and technology
Grabe, Michael
2014-01-01
This book recasts the classical Gaussian error calculus from scratch, the inducements concerning both random and unknown systematic errors. The idea of this book is to create a formalism being fit to localize the true values of physical quantities considered – true with respect to the set of predefined physical units. Remarkably enough, the prevailingly practiced forms of error calculus do not feature this property which however proves in every respect, to be physically indispensable. The amended formalism, termed Generalized Gaussian Error Calculus by the author, treats unknown systematic errors as biases and brings random errors to bear via enhanced confidence intervals as laid down by students. The significantly extended second edition thoroughly restructures and systematizes the text as a whole and illustrates the formalism by numerous numerical examples. They demonstrate the basic principles of how to understand uncertainties to localize the true values of measured values - a perspective decisive in vi...
Critical formalism or digital biomorphology. The contemporary architecture formal dilema
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Beatriz Villanueva Cajide
2018-05-01
Full Text Available With the dawn of digital media the architecture’s formal possibilities reached a level unknown before. The Guggenheim Museo branch in Bilbao appears in 1993 as the materialisation of the possibilities of the use of digital tools in architecture’s design, starting the development of a digital based architecture which currently has reached an exhaustion level that is evident in the repetition biomorphologic shapes emerged from the digital determinism to which some contemporary architectural practices have converged. While the digitalisation of the architectural process is irreversible and desirable, it is necessary to rethink the terms of this collaboration beyond the possibilities of the digital tools themselves. This article proposes to analyse seven texts written in the very moment when digitalisation became a real possibility, between Gehry’s conception of the Guggenheim Museum in 1992 and the Congress on Morphogenesis hold in the Architectural Association in 2004, in order to explore the possibility of reversing the process that has led to the formal exhaustion of digital architecture, from the acceptance of incorporating strategies coming from a contemporary critical formalism.
Barth, Timothy J.
2014-01-01
This workshop presentation discusses the design and implementation of numerical methods for the quantification of statistical uncertainty, including a-posteriori error bounds, for output quantities computed using CFD methods. Hydrodynamic realizations often contain numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation (e.g. numerical methods using grids, basis functions, particles) and statistical uncertainty arising from incomplete information and/or statistical characterization of model parameters and random fields. The first task at hand is to derive formal error bounds for statistics given realizations containing finite-dimensional numerical error [1]. The error in computed output statistics contains contributions from both realization error and the error resulting from the calculation of statistics integrals using a numerical method. A second task is to devise computable a-posteriori error bounds by numerically approximating all terms arising in the error bound estimates. For the same reason that CFD calculations including error bounds but omitting uncertainty modeling are only of limited value, CFD calculations including uncertainty modeling but omitting error bounds are only of limited value. To gain maximum value from CFD calculations, a general software package for uncertainty quantification with quantified error bounds has been developed at NASA. The package provides implementations for a suite of numerical methods used in uncertainty quantification: Dense tensorization basis methods [3] and a subscale recovery variant [1] for non-smooth data, Sparse tensorization methods[2] utilizing node-nested hierarchies, Sampling methods[4] for high-dimensional random variable spaces.
Nonextensive formalism and continuous Hamiltonian systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boon, Jean Pierre; Lutsko, James F.
2011-01-01
A recurring question in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics is what deviation from standard statistical mechanics gives rise to non-Boltzmann behavior and to nonlinear response, which amounts to identifying the emergence of 'statistics from dynamics' in systems out of equilibrium. Among several possible analytical developments which have been proposed, the idea of nonextensive statistics introduced by Tsallis about 20 years ago was to develop a statistical mechanical theory for systems out of equilibrium where the Boltzmann distribution no longer holds, and to generalize the Boltzmann entropy by a more general function S q while maintaining the formalism of thermodynamics. From a phenomenological viewpoint, nonextensive statistics appeared to be of interest because maximization of the generalized entropy S q yields the q-exponential distribution which has been successfully used to describe distributions observed in a large class of phenomena, in particular power law distributions for q>1. Here we re-examine the validity of the nonextensive formalism for continuous Hamiltonian systems. In particular we consider the q-ideal gas, a model system of quasi-particles where the effect of the interactions are included in the particle properties. On the basis of exact results for the q-ideal gas, we find that the theory is restricted to the range q<1, which raises the question of its formal validity range for continuous Hamiltonian systems.
[How to write an article: formal aspects].
Corral de la Calle, M A; Encinas de la Iglesia, J
2013-06-01
Scientific research and the publication of the results of the studies go hand in hand. Exquisite research methods can only be adequately reflected in formal publication with the optimum structure. To ensure the success of this process, it is necessary to follow orderly steps, including selecting the journal in which to publish and following the instructions to authors strictly as well as the guidelines elaborated by diverse societies of editors and other institutions. It is also necessary to structure the contents of the article in a logical and attractive way and to use an accurate, clear, and concise style of language. Although not all the authors are directly involved in the actual writing, elaborating a scientific article is a collective undertaking that does not finish until the article is published. This article provides practical advice about formal and not-so-formal details to take into account when writing a scientific article as well as references that will help readers find more information in greater detail. Copyright © 2012 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.
Instrument uncertainty predictions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coutts, D.A.
1991-07-01
The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty
Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hessling, J P
2011-01-01
The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result
Formal Institutions and Subjective Wellbeing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bjørnskov, Christian; Dreher, Axel; Fischer, Justina A.V.
2010-01-01
A long tradition in economics explores the association between the quality of formal institutions and economic performance. The literature on the relationship between such institutions and happiness is, however, rather limited, and inconclusive. In this paper, we revisit the findings from recent...... cross-country studies on the institution-happiness association. Our findings suggest that their conclusions are qualitatively rather insensitive to the specific measure of 'happiness' used, while the associations between formal institutions and subjective well-being differ among poor and rich countries....... Separating different types of institutional quality, we find that in low-income countries the effects of economic-judicial institutions on happiness dominate those of political institutions, while analyses restricted to middle- and high-income countries show strong support for an additional beneficial effect...
Contextual approach to quantum formalism
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
The aim of this book is to show that the probabilistic formalisms of classical statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics can be unified on the basis of a general contextual probabilistic model. By taking into account the dependence of (classical) probabilities on contexts (i.e. complexes of physical conditions), one can reproduce all distinct features of quantum probabilities such as the interference of probabilities and the violation of Bell’s inequality. Moreover, by starting with a formula for the interference of probabilities (which generalizes the well known classical formula of total probability), one can construct the representation of contextual probabilities by complex probability amplitudes or, in the abstract formalism, by normalized vectors of the complex Hilbert space or its hyperbolic generalization. Thus the Hilbert space representation of probabilities can be naturally derived from classical probabilistic assumptions. An important chapter of the book critically reviews known no-go theorems...
Polynomials formalism of quantum numbers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kazakov, K.V.
2005-01-01
Theoretical aspects of the recently suggested perturbation formalism based on the method of quantum number polynomials are considered in the context of the general anharmonicity problem. Using a biatomic molecule by way of example, it is demonstrated how the theory can be extrapolated to the case of vibrational-rotational interactions. As a result, an exact expression for the first coefficient of the Herman-Wallis factor is derived. In addition, the basic notions of the formalism are phenomenologically generalized and expanded to the problem of spin interaction. The concept of magneto-optical anharmonicity is introduced. As a consequence, an exact analogy is drawn with the well-known electro-optical theory of molecules, and a nonlinear dependence of the magnetic dipole moment of the system on the spin and wave variables is established [ru
Methodology of formal software evaluation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tuszynski, J.
1998-01-01
Sydkraft AB, the major Swedish utility, owner of ca 6000 MW el installed in nuclear (NPP Barsebaeck and NPP Oskarshamn), fossil fuel and hydro Power Plants is facing modernization of the control systems of the plants. Standards applicable require structured, formal methods for implementation of the control functions in the modem, real time software systems. This presentation introduces implementation methodology as discussed presently at the Sydkraft organisation. The approach suggested is based upon the process of co-operation of three parties taking part in the implementation; owner of the plant, vendor and Quality Assurance (QA) organisation. QA will be based on tools for formal software validation and on systematic gathering by the owner of validated and proved-by-operation control modules for the concern-wide utilisation. (author)
Stroh formalism and Rayleigh waves
Tanuma, Kazumi
2008-01-01
Introduces a powerful and elegant mathematical method for the analysis of anisotropic elasticity equationsThe reader can grasp the essentials as quickly as possibleCan be used as a textbook, which presents compactly introduction and applications of the Stroh formalismAppeals to the people not only in mathematics but also in mechanics and engineering sciencePrerequisites are only basic linear algebra, calculus and fundamentals of differential equations
Variational formalism for spin particles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Horvathy, P.
1977-11-01
The geometrical formulation of Hamilton's principle presented in a previous paper has been related to the usual one in terms of Lagrangian functions. The exact conditions for their equivalence are obtained and a method is given for the construction of a Lagrangian function. The formalism is extended to spin particles and a local Lagrangian is constructed in this case, too. However, this function cannot be extended to a global one. (D.P.)
Review of the helicity formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barreiro, F.; Cerrada, M.; Fernandez, E.
1972-01-01
Our purpose in these notes has been to present a brief and general review of the helicity formalism. We begin by discussing Lorentz invariance, spin and helicity ideas, in section 1 . In section 2 we deal with the construction of relativistic states and scattering amplitudes in the helicity basis and we study their transformation properties under discrete symmetries. Finally we present some more sophisticated topics like kinematical singularities of helicity amplitudes, kinematical constraints and crossing relations 3, 4, 5 respectively. (Author) 8 refs
Ashtekar formalism with real variables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kalau, W.; Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica
1990-12-01
A new approach to canonical gravity is presented which is based on the Ashtekar formalism. But, in contrast to Ashtekar's variables, this formulation does not need complex quantities nor does it lead to second class constraints. This is achieved using SO(3,1) as a gauge group instead of complexified SO(3). Because of the larger group additional first class constraints are needed which turn out to be cubic and quartic in the momenta. (author). 13 refs
Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oughton, D.H.; Agueero, A.; Avila, R.; Brown, J.E.; Copplestone, D.; Gilek, M.
2008-01-01
Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties
Uncertainty and Cognitive Control
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Faisal eMushtaq
2011-10-01
Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.
Uncertainty Quantification in Numerical Aerodynamics
Litvinenko, Alexander
2017-05-16
We consider uncertainty quantification problem in aerodynamic simulations. We identify input uncertainties, classify them, suggest an appropriate statistical model and, finally, estimate propagation of these uncertainties into the solution (pressure, velocity and density fields as well as the lift and drag coefficients). The deterministic problem under consideration is a compressible transonic Reynolds-averaged Navier-Strokes flow around an airfoil with random/uncertain data. Input uncertainties include: uncertain angle of attack, the Mach number, random perturbations in the airfoil geometry, mesh, shock location, turbulence model and parameters of this turbulence model. This problem requires efficient numerical/statistical methods since it is computationally expensive, especially for the uncertainties caused by random geometry variations which involve a large number of variables. In numerical section we compares five methods, including quasi-Monte Carlo quadrature, polynomial chaos with coefficients determined by sparse quadrature and gradient-enhanced version of Kriging, radial basis functions and point collocation polynomial chaos, in their efficiency in estimating statistics of aerodynamic performance upon random perturbation to the airfoil geometry [D.Liu et al \\'17]. For modeling we used the TAU code, developed in DLR, Germany.
Kriston, Levente; Meister, Ramona
2014-03-01
Judging applicability (relevance) of meta-analytical findings to particular clinical decision-making situations remains challenging. We aimed to describe an evidence synthesis method that accounts for possible uncertainty regarding applicability of the evidence. We conceptualized uncertainty regarding applicability of the meta-analytical estimates to a decision-making situation as the result of uncertainty regarding applicability of the findings of the trials that were included in the meta-analysis. This trial-level applicability uncertainty can be directly assessed by the decision maker and allows for the definition of trial inclusion probabilities, which can be used to perform a probabilistic meta-analysis with unequal probability resampling of trials (adaptive meta-analysis). A case study with several fictitious decision-making scenarios was performed to demonstrate the method in practice. We present options to elicit trial inclusion probabilities and perform the calculations. The result of an adaptive meta-analysis is a frequency distribution of the estimated parameters from traditional meta-analysis that provides individually tailored information according to the specific needs and uncertainty of the decision maker. The proposed method offers a direct and formalized combination of research evidence with individual clinical expertise and may aid clinicians in specific decision-making situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A first formal link between the price equation and an optimization program.
Grafen, Alan
2002-07-07
The Darwin unification project is pursued. A meta-model encompassing an important class of population genetic models is formed by adding an abstract model of the number of successful gametes to the Price equation under uncertainty. A class of optimization programs are defined to represent the "individual-as-maximizing-agent analogy" in a general way. It is then shown that for each population genetic model there is a corresponding optimization program with which formal links can be established. These links provide a secure logical foundation for the commonplace biological principle that natural selection leads organisms to act as if maximizing their "fitness", provides a definition of "fitness", and clarifies the limitations of that principle. The situations covered do not include frequency dependence or social behaviour, but the approach is capable of extension.
Quantum Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Game Theory
Asano, M.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.; Khrennikov, A.; Basieva, I.
2011-01-01
Recently a few authors pointed to a possibility to apply the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to cognitive psychology, in particular, to games of the Prisoners Dilemma (PD) type.6_18 In this paper, we discuss the problem of rationality in game theory and point out that the quantum uncertainty is similar to the uncertainty of knowledge, which a player feels subjectively in his decision-making.
Improved pion pion scattering amplitude from dispersion relation formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cavalcante, I.P.; Coutinho, Y.A.; Borges, J. Sa
2005-01-01
Pion-pion scattering amplitude is obtained from Chiral Perturbation Theory at one- and two-loop approximations. Dispersion relation formalism provides a more economic method, which was proved to reproduce the analytical structure of that amplitude at both approximation levels. This work extends the use of the formalism in order to compute further unitarity corrections to partial waves, including the D-wave amplitude. (author)
Recognizing and responding to uncertainty: a grounded theory of nurses' uncertainty.
Cranley, Lisa A; Doran, Diane M; Tourangeau, Ann E; Kushniruk, Andre; Nagle, Lynn
2012-08-01
There has been little research to date exploring nurses' uncertainty in their practice. Understanding nurses' uncertainty is important because it has potential implications for how care is delivered. The purpose of this study is to develop a substantive theory to explain how staff nurses experience and respond to uncertainty in their practice. Between 2006 and 2008, a grounded theory study was conducted that included in-depth semi-structured interviews. Fourteen staff nurses working in adult medical-surgical intensive care units at two teaching hospitals in Ontario, Canada, participated in the study. The theory recognizing and responding to uncertainty characterizes the processes through which nurses' uncertainty manifested and how it was managed. Recognizing uncertainty involved the processes of assessing, reflecting, questioning, and/or being unable to predict aspects of the patient situation. Nurses' responses to uncertainty highlighted the cognitive-affective strategies used to manage uncertainty. Study findings highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and having collegial support to manage uncertainty. The theory adds to our understanding the processes involved in recognizing uncertainty, strategies and outcomes of managing uncertainty, and influencing factors. Tailored nursing education programs should be developed to assist nurses in developing skills in articulating and managing their uncertainty. Further research is needed to extend, test and refine the theory of recognizing and responding to uncertainty to develop strategies for managing uncertainty. This theory advances the nursing perspective of uncertainty in clinical practice. The theory is relevant to nurses who are faced with uncertainty and complex clinical decisions, to managers who support nurses in their clinical decision-making, and to researchers who investigate ways to improve decision-making and care delivery. ©2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.
Advancing Uncertainty: Untangling and Discerning Related Concepts
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janice Penrod
2002-12-01
Full Text Available Methods of advancing concepts within the qualitative paradigm have been developed and articulated. In this section, I describe methodological perspectives of a project designed to advance the concept of uncertainty using multiple qualitative methods. Through a series of earlier studies, the concept of uncertainty arose repeatedly in varied contexts, working its way into prominence, and warranting further investigation. Processes of advanced concept analysis were used to initiate the formal investigation into the meaning of the concept. Through concept analysis, the concept was deconstructed to identify conceptual components and gaps in understanding. Using this skeletal framework of the concept identified through concept analysis, subsequent studies were carried out to add ‘flesh’ to the concept. First, a concept refinement using the literature as data was completed. Findings revealed that the current state of the concept of uncertainty failed to incorporate what was known of the lived experience. Therefore, using interview techniques as the primary data source, a phenomenological study of uncertainty among caregivers was conducted. Incorporating the findings of the phenomenology, the skeletal framework of the concept was further fleshed out using techniques of concept correction to produce a more mature conceptualization of uncertainty. In this section, I describe the flow of this qualitative project investigating the concept of uncertainty, with special emphasis on a particular threat to validity (called conceptual tunnel vision that was identified and addressed during the phases of concept correction. Though in this article I employ a study of uncertainty for illustration, limited substantive findings regarding uncertainty are presented to retain a clear focus on the methodological issues.
Uncertainty quantification and error analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Higdon, Dave M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson, Mark C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Habib, Salman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klein, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Berliner, Mark [OHIO STATE UNIV.; Covey, Curt [LLNL; Ghattas, Omar [UNIV OF TEXAS; Graziani, Carlo [UNIV OF CHICAGO; Seager, Mark [LLNL; Sefcik, Joseph [LLNL; Stark, Philip [UC/BERKELEY; Stewart, James [SNL
2010-01-01
UQ studies all sources of error and uncertainty, including: systematic and stochastic measurement error; ignorance; limitations of theoretical models; limitations of numerical representations of those models; limitations on the accuracy and reliability of computations, approximations, and algorithms; and human error. A more precise definition for UQ is suggested below.
Uncertainty covariances in robotics applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, D.L.
1984-01-01
The application of uncertainty covariance matrices in the analysis of robot trajectory errors is explored. First, relevant statistical concepts are reviewed briefly. Then, a simple, hypothetical robot model is considered to illustrate methods for error propagation and performance test data evaluation. The importance of including error correlations is emphasized
Formal Verification of Continuous Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sloth, Christoffer
2012-01-01
and the verification procedures should be algorithmically synthesizable. Autonomous control plays an important role in many safety-critical systems. This implies that a malfunction in the control system can have catastrophic consequences, e.g., in space applications where a design flaw can result in large economic...... losses. Furthermore, a malfunction in the control system of a surgical robot may cause death of patients. The previous examples involve complex systems that are required to operate according to complex specifications. The systems cannot be formally verified by modern verification techniques, due...
Measuring the effect of formalization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stoelen, K.; Mohn, P.
1998-01-01
We present an ongoing research activity concerned with measuring the effect of an increased level of formalization in software development. We summarize the experiences from a first experimental development. Based on these experiences, we discuss a number of technical issues; in particular, problems connected to metrics based on fault reports. First of all, what is a fault? Secondly, how should the fault counting be integrated in the development process? Thirdly, any reasonable definition of fault depends on a notion of satisfaction. Hence, we must address the question: What does it mean for a specification or an implementation to satisfy a requirement imposed by a more high-level specification? (author)
Formalization in Component Based Development
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Holmegaard, Jens Peter; Knudsen, John; Makowski, Piotr
2006-01-01
We present a unifying conceptual framework for components, component interfaces, contracts and composition of components by focusing on the collection of properties or qualities that they must share. A specific property, such as signature, functionality behaviour or timing is an aspect. Each aspect...... may be specified in a formal language convenient for its purpose and, in principle, unrelated to languages for other aspects. Each aspect forms its own semantic domain, although a semantic domain may be parameterized by values derived from other aspects. The proposed conceptual framework is introduced...
Asymmetric Formal Synthesis of Azadirachtin.
Mori, Naoki; Kitahara, Takeshi; Mori, Kenji; Watanabe, Hidenori
2015-12-01
An asymmetric formal synthesis of azadirachtin, a potent insect antifeedant, was accomplished in 30 steps to Ley's synthetic intermediate (longest linear sequence). The synthesis features: 1) rapid access to the optically active right-hand segment starting from the known 5-hydroxymethyl-2-cyclopentenone scaffold; 2) construction of the B and E rings by a key intramolecular tandem radical cyclization; 3) formation of the hemiacetal moiety in the C ring through the α-oxidation of the six-membered lactone followed by methanolysis. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Zharinov, V. V.
2013-02-01
We propose a formal construction generalizing the classic de Rham complex to a wide class of models in mathematical physics and analysis. The presentation is divided into a sequence of definitions and elementary, easily verified statements; proofs are therefore given only in the key case. Linear operations are everywhere performed over a fixed number field {F} = {R},{C}. All linear spaces, algebras, and modules, although not stipulated explicitly, are by definition or by construction endowed with natural locally convex topologies, and their morphisms are continuous.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon
2003-01-01
In the risk and reliability analysis of complex technological systems, the primary concern of formal uncertainty analysis is to understand why uncertainties arise, and to evaluate how they impact the results of the analysis. In recent times, many of the uncertainty analyses have focused on parameters of the risk and reliability analysis models, whose values are uncertain in an aleatory or an epistemic way. As the field of parametric uncertainty analysis matures, however, more attention is being paid to the explicit treatment of uncertainties that are addressed in the predictive model itself as well as the accuracy of the predictive model. The essential steps for evaluating impacts of these model uncertainties in the presence of parameter uncertainties are to determine rigorously various sources of uncertainties to be addressed in an underlying model itself and in turn model parameters, based on our state-of-knowledge and relevant evidence. Answering clearly the question of how to characterize and treat explicitly the forgoing different sources of uncertainty is particularly important for practical aspects such as risk and reliability optimization of systems as well as more transparent risk information and decision-making under various uncertainties. The main purpose of this paper is to provide practical guidance for quantitatively treating various model uncertainties that would often be encountered in the risk and reliability modeling process of complex technological systems
The smooth entropy formalism for von Neumann algebras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berta, Mario; Furrer, Fabian; Scholz, Volkher B.
2016-01-01
We discuss information-theoretic concepts on infinite-dimensional quantum systems. In particular, we lift the smooth entropy formalism as introduced by Renner and collaborators for finite-dimensional systems to von Neumann algebras. For the smooth conditional min- and max-entropy, we recover similar characterizing properties and information-theoretic operational interpretations as in the finite-dimensional case. We generalize the entropic uncertainty relation with quantum side information of Tomamichel and Renner and discuss applications to quantum cryptography. In particular, we prove the possibility to perform privacy amplification and classical data compression with quantum side information modeled by a von Neumann algebra
The smooth entropy formalism for von Neumann algebras
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Berta, Mario, E-mail: berta@caltech.edu [Institute for Quantum Information and Matter, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125 (United States); Furrer, Fabian, E-mail: furrer@eve.phys.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan and Institute for Theoretical Physics, Leibniz University Hanover, Hanover (Germany); Scholz, Volkher B., E-mail: scholz@phys.ethz.ch [Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
2016-01-15
We discuss information-theoretic concepts on infinite-dimensional quantum systems. In particular, we lift the smooth entropy formalism as introduced by Renner and collaborators for finite-dimensional systems to von Neumann algebras. For the smooth conditional min- and max-entropy, we recover similar characterizing properties and information-theoretic operational interpretations as in the finite-dimensional case. We generalize the entropic uncertainty relation with quantum side information of Tomamichel and Renner and discuss applications to quantum cryptography. In particular, we prove the possibility to perform privacy amplification and classical data compression with quantum side information modeled by a von Neumann algebra.
Gates, Kevin; Chang, Ning; Dilek, Isil; Jian, Huahua; Pogue, Sherri; Sreenivasan, Uma
2009-10-01
Certified solution standards are widely used in forensic toxicological, clinical/diagnostic, and environmental testing. Typically, these standards are purchased as ampouled solutions with a certified concentration. Vendors present concentration and uncertainty differently on their Certificates of Analysis. Understanding the factors that impact uncertainty and which factors have been considered in the vendor's assignment of uncertainty are critical to understanding the accuracy of the standard and the impact on testing results. Understanding these variables is also important for laboratories seeking to comply with ISO/IEC 17025 requirements and for those preparing reference solutions from neat materials at the bench. The impact of uncertainty associated with the neat material purity (including residual water, residual solvent, and inorganic content), mass measurement (weighing techniques), and solvent addition (solution density) on the overall uncertainty of the certified concentration is described along with uncertainty calculations.
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.
1993-04-01
Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project
Model uncertainty and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parry, G.W.
1994-01-01
This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example
Psychologist in non-formal education
Pavićević Miljana S.
2011-01-01
Learning is not limited to school time. It starts at birth and continues throughout the entire life. Equally important as formal education there are also non-formal and informal education. Any kind of learning outside the traditional school can be called informal. However, it is not easy to define non-formal education because it is being described differently, for example as an education movement, process, system… Projects and programs implemented under the name of non-formal education are of...
A survey of formal languages for contracts
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hvitved, Tom
2010-01-01
In this short paper we present the current status on formal languages and models for contracts. By a formal model is meant an unambiguous and rigorous representation of contracts, in order to enable their automatic validation, execution, and analysis — activates that are collectively referred...... to as contract lifecycle management (CLM). We present a set of formalism requirements, which represent features that any ideal contract model should support, based on which we present a comparative survey of existing contract formalisms....
Formal Proofs for Nonlinear Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Victor Magron
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We present a formally verified global optimization framework. Given a semialgebraic or transcendental function f and a compact semialgebraic domain K, we use the nonlinear maxplus template approximation algorithm to provide a certified lower bound of f over K.This method allows to bound in a modular way some of the constituents of f by suprema of quadratic forms with a well chosen curvature. Thus, we reduce the initial goal to a hierarchy of semialgebraic optimization problems, solved by sums of squares relaxations. Our implementation tool interleaves semialgebraic approximations with sums of squares witnesses to form certificates. It is interfaced with Coq and thus benefits from the trusted arithmetic available inside the proof assistant. This feature is used to produce, from the certificates, both valid underestimators and lower bounds for each approximated constituent.The application range for such a tool is widespread; for instance Hales' proof of Kepler's conjecture yields thousands of multivariate transcendental inequalities. We illustrate the performance of our formal framework on some of these inequalities as well as on examples from the global optimization literature.
Canonical formalism for relativistic dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Penafiel-Nava, V.M.
1982-01-01
The possibility of a canonical formalism appropriate for a dynamical theory of isolated relativistic multiparticle systems involving scalar interactions is studied. It is shown that a single time-parameter structure satisfying the requirements of Poincare invariance and simultaneity of the constituents (global tranversality) can not be derived from a homogeneous Lagrangian. The dynamics is deduced initially from a non-homogeneous but singular Lagrangian designed to accommodate the global tranversality constraints with the equaltime plane associated to the total momentum of the system. An equivalent standard Lagrangian is used to generalize the parametrization procedure which is referred to an arbitrary geodesic in Minkowski space. The equations of motion and the definition of center of momentum are invariant with respect to the choice of geodesic and the entire formalism becomes separable. In the original 8N-dimensional phase-space, the symmetries of the Lagrangian give rise to a canonical realization of a fifteen-generator Lie algebra which is projected in the 6N dimensional hypersurface of dynamical motions. The time-component of the total momentum is thus reduced to a neutral element and the canonical Hamiltonian survives as the only generator for time-translations so that the no-interaction theorem becomes inapplicable
Understanding visualization: a formal approach using category theory and semiotics.
Vickers, Paul; Faith, Joe; Rossiter, Nick
2013-06-01
This paper combines the vocabulary of semiotics and category theory to provide a formal analysis of visualization. It shows how familiar processes of visualization fit the semiotic frameworks of both Saussure and Peirce, and extends these structures using the tools of category theory to provide a general framework for understanding visualization in practice, including: Relationships between systems, data collected from those systems, renderings of those data in the form of representations, the reading of those representations to create visualizations, and the use of those visualizations to create knowledge and understanding of the system under inspection. The resulting framework is validated by demonstrating how familiar information visualization concepts (such as literalness, sensitivity, redundancy, ambiguity, generalizability, and chart junk) arise naturally from it and can be defined formally and precisely. This paper generalizes previous work on the formal characterization of visualization by, inter alia, Ziemkiewicz and Kosara and allows us to formally distinguish properties of the visualization process that previous work does not.
Incorporating outcome uncertainty and prior outcome beliefs in stated preferences
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick
2015-01-01
Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents......’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty...
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Kanal, LN
1986-01-01
How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.
Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.
1988-01-01
Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references
Uncertainty and inference in the world of paleoecological data
McLachlan, J. S.; Dawson, A.; Dietze, M.; Finley, M.; Hooten, M.; Itter, M.; Jackson, S. T.; Marlon, J. R.; Raiho, A.; Tipton, J.; Williams, J.
2017-12-01
Proxy data in paleoecology and paleoclimatology share a common set of biases and uncertainties: spatiotemporal error associated with the taphonomic processes of deposition, preservation, and dating; calibration error between proxy data and the ecosystem states of interest; and error in the interpolation of calibrated estimates across space and time. Researchers often account for this daunting suite of challenges by applying qualitave expert judgment: inferring the past states of ecosystems and assessing the level of uncertainty in those states subjectively. The effectiveness of this approach can be seen by the extent to which future observations confirm previous assertions. Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) statistical approaches allow an alternative approach to accounting for multiple uncertainties in paleo data. HB estimates of ecosystem state formally account for each of the common uncertainties listed above. HB approaches can readily incorporate additional data, and data of different types into estimates of ecosystem state. And HB estimates of ecosystem state, with associated uncertainty, can be used to constrain forecasts of ecosystem dynamics based on mechanistic ecosystem models using data assimilation. Decisions about how to structure an HB model are also subjective, which creates a parallel framework for deciding how to interpret data from the deep past.Our group, the Paleoecological Observatory Network (PalEON), has applied hierarchical Bayesian statistics to formally account for uncertainties in proxy based estimates of past climate, fire, primary productivity, biomass, and vegetation composition. Our estimates often reveal new patterns of past ecosystem change, which is an unambiguously good thing, but we also often estimate a level of uncertainty that is uncomfortably high for many researchers. High levels of uncertainty are due to several features of the HB approach: spatiotemporal smoothing, the formal aggregation of multiple types of uncertainty, and a
Formal analysis of design process dynamics
Bosse, T.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.
2010-01-01
This paper presents a formal analysis of design process dynamics. Such a formal analysis is a prerequisite to come to a formal theory of design and for the development of automated support for the dynamics of design processes. The analysis was geared toward the identification of dynamic design
Formal Analysis of Design Process Dynamics
Bosse, T.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.
2010-01-01
This paper presents a formal analysis of design process dynamics. Such a formal analysis is a prerequisite to come to a formal theory of design and for the development of automated support for the dynamics of design processes. The analysis was geared toward the identification of dynamic design
Formal Symplectic Groupoid of a Deformation Quantization
Karabegov, Alexander V.
2005-08-01
We give a self-contained algebraic description of a formal symplectic groupoid over a Poisson manifold M. To each natural star product on M we then associate a canonical formal symplectic groupoid over M. Finally, we construct a unique formal symplectic groupoid ‘with separation of variables’ over an arbitrary Kähler-Poisson manifold.
Formalizing the concept phase of product development
Schuts, M.; Hooman, J.
2015-01-01
We discuss the use of formal techniques to improve the concept phase of product realisation. As an industrial application, a new concept of interventional X-ray systems has been formalized, using model checking techniques and the simulation of formal models. cop. Springer International Publishing
Formal Testing of Correspondence Carrying Software
Bujorianu, M.C.; Bujorianu, L.M.; Maharaj, S.
2008-01-01
Nowadays formal software development is characterised by use of multitude formal specification languages. Test case generation from formal specifications depends in general on a specific language, and, moreover, there are competing methods for each language. There is a need for a generic approach to
Lifelong Learning to Empowerment: Beyond Formal Education
Carr, Alexis; Balasubramanian, K.; Atieno, Rosemary; Onyango, James
2018-01-01
This paper discusses the relevance of lifelong learning vis-à-vis the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and stresses the need for an approach blending formal education, non-formal and informal learning. The role of Open and Distance Learning (ODL) in moving beyond formal education and the importance of integrating pedagogy, andragogy and…
Urban drainage models - making uncertainty analysis simple
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Deletic, Ana
2012-01-01
in each measured/observed datapoint; an issue which is commonly overlook in the uncertainty analysis of urban drainage models. This comparison allows the user to intuitively estimate the optimum number of simulations required to conduct uncertainty analyses. The output of the method includes parameter......There is increasing awareness about uncertainties in modelling of urban drainage systems and, as such, many new methods for uncertainty analyses have been developed. Despite this, all available methods have limitations which restrict their widespread application among practitioners. Here...
Report on the uncertainty methods study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1998-06-01
The Uncertainty Methods Study (UMS) Group, following a mandate from CSNI, has compared five methods for calculating the uncertainty in the predictions of advanced 'best estimate' thermal-hydraulic codes: the Pisa method (based on extrapolation from integral experiments) and four methods identifying and combining input uncertainties. Three of these, the GRS, IPSN and ENUSA methods, use subjective probability distributions, and one, the AEAT method, performs a bounding analysis. Each method has been used to calculate the uncertainty in specified parameters for the LSTF SB-CL-18 5% cold leg small break LOCA experiment in the ROSA-IV Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF). The uncertainty analysis was conducted essentially blind and the participants did not use experimental measurements from the test as input apart from initial and boundary conditions. Participants calculated uncertainty ranges for experimental parameters including pressurizer pressure, primary circuit inventory and clad temperature (at a specified position) as functions of time
Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.
1985-09-01
The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs
Cognitive reasoning a formal approach
Anshakov, Oleg M
2010-01-01
Dealing with uncertainty, moving from ignorance to knowledge, is the focus of cognitive processes. Understanding these processes and modelling, designing, and building artificial cognitive systems have long been challenging research problems. This book describes the theory and methodology of a new, scientifically well-founded general approach, and its realization in the form of intelligent systems applicable in disciplines ranging from social sciences, such as cognitive science and sociology, through natural sciences, such as life sciences and chemistry, to applied sciences, such as medicine,
The interplay between formal and informal contracting in integrated project delivery
Bygballe, L.E.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.; Levitt, R.
2015-01-01
This research examines the interplay between formal and informal contracting in integrated project delivery (IPD). It investigates how the interplay enables parties in health-care construction projects to cope with uncertainty and complexities, due to, among others, changing demands. New delivery
Formal modeling of virtual machines
Cremers, A. B.; Hibbard, T. N.
1978-01-01
Systematic software design can be based on the development of a 'hierarchy of virtual machines', each representing a 'level of abstraction' of the design process. The reported investigation presents the concept of 'data space' as a formal model for virtual machines. The presented model of a data space combines the notions of data type and mathematical machine to express the close interaction between data and control structures which takes place in a virtual machine. One of the main objectives of the investigation is to show that control-independent data type implementation is only of limited usefulness as an isolated tool of program development, and that the representation of data is generally dictated by the control context of a virtual machine. As a second objective, a better understanding is to be developed of virtual machine state structures than was heretofore provided by the view of the state space as a Cartesian product.
A Formal Calculus for Categories
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cáccamo, Mario José
This dissertation studies the logic underlying category theory. In particular we present a formal calculus for reasoning about universal properties. The aim is to systematise judgements about functoriality and naturality central to categorical reasoning. The calculus is based on a language which...... extends the typed lambda calculus with new binders to represent universal constructions. The types of the languages are interpreted as locally small categories and the expressions represent functors. The logic supports a syntactic treatment of universality and duality. Contravariance requires a definition...... of universality generous enough to deal with functors of mixed variance. Ends generalise limits to cover these kinds of functors and moreover provide the basis for a very convenient algebraic manipulation of expressions. The equational theory of the lambda calculus is extended with new rules for the definitions...
Formal analysis of physical theories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dalla Chiara, M.L.; Toraldo di Francia, G.
1979-01-01
The rules of inference that are made use of in formalization are considered. It is maintained that a physical law represents the universal assertion of a probability, and not the assessment of the probability of a universal assertion. The precision of the apparatus used to collect the experimental evidence is introduced as an essential part of the theoretical structure of physics. This approach allows the author to define the concept of truth in a satisfactory way, abandoning the unacceptable notion of approximate truth. It is shown that a considerable amount of light can be shed on a number of much debated problems arising in the logic of quantum mechanics. It is stressed that the deductive structure of quantum theory seems to be essentially founded on a kind of mixture of different logics. Two different concepts of truth are distinguished within quantum theory, an empirical truth and quantum-logical truth. (Auth.)
Uncertainty in social dilemmas
Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de
2007-01-01
This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size
Uncertainty and Climate Change
Berliner, L. Mark
2003-01-01
Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.
Deterministic uncertainty analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worley, B.A.
1987-01-01
Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.
2009-01-01
More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers
Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-03-19
This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
Schwier, Richard A.; Seaton, J. X.
2013-01-01
Does learner participation vary depending on the learning context? Are there characteristic features of participation evident in formal, non-formal, and informal online learning environments? Six online learning environments were chosen as epitomes of formal, non-formal, and informal learning contexts and compared. Transcripts of online…
Formal specification level concepts, methods, and algorithms
Soeken, Mathias
2015-01-01
This book introduces a new level of abstraction that closes the gap between the textual specification of embedded systems and the executable model at the Electronic System Level (ESL). Readers will be enabled to operate at this new, Formal Specification Level (FSL), using models which not only allow significant verification tasks in this early stage of the design flow, but also can be extracted semi-automatically from the textual specification in an interactive manner. The authors explain how to use these verification tasks to check conceptual properties, e.g. whether requirements are in conflict, as well as dynamic behavior, in terms of execution traces. • Serves as a single-source reference to a new level of abstraction for embedded systems, known as the Formal Specification Level (FSL); • Provides a variety of use cases which can be adapted to readers’ specific design flows; • Includes a comprehensive illustration of Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, along with examples of how to i...
Formalization of treatment guidelines using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and semantic web tools.
Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I; Roo, Jos De; Huszka, Csaba; Colaert, Dirk
2012-02-01
Therapy decision making and support in medicine deals with uncertainty and needs to take into account the patient's clinical parameters, the context of illness and the medical knowledge of the physician and guidelines to recommend a treatment therapy. This research study is focused on the formalization of medical knowledge using a cognitive process, called Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) and semantic web approach. The FCM technique is capable of dealing with situations including uncertain descriptions using similar procedure such as human reasoning does. Thus, it was selected for the case of modeling and knowledge integration of clinical practice guidelines. The semantic web tools were established to implement the FCM approach. The knowledge base was constructed from the clinical guidelines as the form of if-then fuzzy rules. These fuzzy rules were transferred to FCM modeling technique and, through the semantic web tools, the whole formalization was accomplished. The problem of urinary tract infection (UTI) in adult community was examined for the proposed approach. Forty-seven clinical concepts and eight therapy concepts were identified for the antibiotic treatment therapy problem of UTIs. A preliminary pilot-evaluation study with 55 patient cases showed interesting findings; 91% of the antibiotic treatments proposed by the implemented approach were in fully agreement with the guidelines and physicians' opinions. The results have shown that the suggested approach formalizes medical knowledge efficiently and gives a front-end decision on antibiotics' suggestion for cystitis. Concluding, modeling medical knowledge/therapeutic guidelines using cognitive methods and web semantic tools is both reliable and useful. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Proceedings of the First NASA Formal Methods Symposium
Denney, Ewen (Editor); Giannakopoulou, Dimitra (Editor); Pasareanu, Corina S. (Editor)
2009-01-01
Topics covered include: Model Checking - My 27-Year Quest to Overcome the State Explosion Problem; Applying Formal Methods to NASA Projects: Transition from Research to Practice; TLA+: Whence, Wherefore, and Whither; Formal Methods Applications in Air Transportation; Theorem Proving in Intel Hardware Design; Building a Formal Model of a Human-Interactive System: Insights into the Integration of Formal Methods and Human Factors Engineering; Model Checking for Autonomic Systems Specified with ASSL; A Game-Theoretic Approach to Branching Time Abstract-Check-Refine Process; Software Model Checking Without Source Code; Generalized Abstract Symbolic Summaries; A Comparative Study of Randomized Constraint Solvers for Random-Symbolic Testing; Component-Oriented Behavior Extraction for Autonomic System Design; Automated Verification of Design Patterns with LePUS3; A Module Language for Typing by Contracts; From Goal-Oriented Requirements to Event-B Specifications; Introduction of Virtualization Technology to Multi-Process Model Checking; Comparing Techniques for Certified Static Analysis; Towards a Framework for Generating Tests to Satisfy Complex Code Coverage in Java Pathfinder; jFuzz: A Concolic Whitebox Fuzzer for Java; Machine-Checkable Timed CSP; Stochastic Formal Correctness of Numerical Algorithms; Deductive Verification of Cryptographic Software; Coloured Petri Net Refinement Specification and Correctness Proof with Coq; Modeling Guidelines for Code Generation in the Railway Signaling Context; Tactical Synthesis Of Efficient Global Search Algorithms; Towards Co-Engineering Communicating Autonomous Cyber-Physical Systems; and Formal Methods for Automated Diagnosis of Autosub 6000.
Formalism for neutron cross section covariances in the resonance region using kernel approximation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oblozinsky, P.; Cho,Y-S.; Matoon,C.M.; Mughabghab,S.F.
2010-04-09
We describe analytical formalism for estimating neutron radiative capture and elastic scattering cross section covariances in the resolved resonance region. We use capture and scattering kernels as the starting point and show how to get average cross sections in broader energy bins, derive analytical expressions for cross section sensitivities, and deduce cross section covariances from the resonance parameter uncertainties in the recently published Atlas of Neutron Resonances. The formalism elucidates the role of resonance parameter correlations which become important if several strong resonances are located in one energy group. Importance of potential scattering uncertainty as well as correlation between potential scattering and resonance scattering is also examined. Practical application of the formalism is illustrated on {sup 55}Mn(n,{gamma}) and {sup 55}Mn(n,el).
Treatment and reporting of uncertainties for environmental radiation measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Colle, R.
1980-01-01
Recommendations for a practical and uniform method for treating and reporting uncertainties in environmental radiation measurements data are presented. The method requires that each reported measurement result include the value, a total propagated random uncertainty expressed as the standard deviation, and a combined overall uncertainty. The uncertainty assessment should be based on as nearly a complete assessment as possible and should include every conceivable or likely source of inaccuracy in the result. Guidelines are given for estimating random and systematic uncertainty components, and for propagating and combining them to form an overall uncertainty
Kors, Ninja; Mak, Peter
2006-01-01
The pilot project that will be described in this report was all about the animateur. What are his skills and attitudes? What are the pedagogical interventions that he uses in a workshop or an event? What are the main issues that arise when we try to include such a naturally non-formal and informal
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Peralta-Ramos, J., E-mail: jperalta@ift.unesp.b [Instituto de Fisica Teorica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Rua Doutor Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, Bloco II, 01140-070 Sao Paulo (Brazil); Nakwacki, M.S., E-mail: sole@iafe.uba.a [Instituto de Astronomia, Geofisica e Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Rua do Matao 1226, Cidade Universitaria, 05508-090 Sao Paulo (Brazil)
2011-02-01
We calculate the spectra of produced thermal photons in Au + Au collisions taking into account the nonequilibrium contribution to photon production due to finite shear viscosity. The evolution of the fireball is modeled by second-order as well as by divergence-type 2+1 dissipative hydrodynamics, both with an ideal equation of state and with one based on Lattice QCD that includes an analytical crossover. The spectrum calculated in the divergence-type theory is considerably enhanced with respect to the one calculated in the second-order theory, the difference being entirely due to differences in the viscous corrections to photon production. Our results show that the differences in hydrodynamic formalisms are an important source of uncertainty in the extraction of the value of {eta}/s from measured photon spectra. The uncertainty in the value of {eta}/s associated with different hydrodynamic models used to compute thermal photon spectra is larger than the one occurring in matching hadron elliptic flow to RHIC data.
Unexpected uncertainty, volatility and decision-making
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amy Rachel Bland
2012-06-01
Full Text Available The study of uncertainty in decision making is receiving greater attention in the fields of cognitive and computational neuroscience. Several lines of evidence are beginning to elucidate different variants of uncertainty. Particularly, risk, ambiguity and expected and unexpected forms of uncertainty are well articulated in the literature. In this article we review both empirical and theoretical evidence arguing for the potential distinction between three forms of uncertainty; expected uncertainty, unexpected uncertainty and volatility. Particular attention will be devoted to exploring the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility which has been less appreciated in the literature. This includes evidence from computational modelling, neuromodulation, neuroimaging and electrophysiological studies. We further address the possible differentiation of cognitive control mechanisms used to deal with these forms of uncertainty. Particularly we explore a role for conflict monitoring and the temporal integration of information into working memory. Finally, we explore whether the Dual Modes of Control theory provides a theoretical framework for understanding the distinction between unexpected uncertainty and volatility.
Towards a different attitude to uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guy Pe'er
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the perspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the current rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as anticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics due to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even impossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge (epistemic uncertainty and societal responses to it. Under these conditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with uncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an overall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even embraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be counterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence, ignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or irresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by externalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that uncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in knowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies flexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of the public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and communication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on uncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative attitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude across scales – from adaptive management at the local scale, to the evolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES at the global level.
Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, Terje
2010-01-01
A guide to quantitative uncertainty analysis and management in industry has recently been issued. The guide provides an overall framework for uncertainty modelling and characterisations, using probabilities but also other uncertainty representations (including the Dempster-Shafer theory). A number of practical applications showing how to use the framework are presented. The guide is considered as an important contribution to the field, but there is a potential for improvements. These relate mainly to the scientific basis and clarification of critical issues, for example, concerning the meaning of a probability and the concept of model uncertainty. A reformulation of the framework is suggested using probabilities as the only representation of uncertainty. Several simple examples are included to motivate and explain the basic ideas of the modified framework.
Modified Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Uncertainty Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gol-Mohamad, Mohammad P.; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali
2006-01-01
This paper describes a methodology of characterizing important phenomena, which is also part of a broader research by the authors called 'Modified PIRT'. The methodology provides robust process of phenomena identification and ranking process for more precise quantification of uncertainty. It is a two-step process of identifying and ranking methodology based on thermal-hydraulics (TH) importance as well as uncertainty importance. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) has been used for as a formal approach for TH identification and ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the TH model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. This part uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions. The proposed methodology was demonstrated by developing a PIRT for large break loss of coolant accident LBLOCA for the LOFT integral facility with highest core power (test LB-1). (authors)
Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT
Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki
2017-10-01
A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.
Uncertainty of dustfall monitoring results
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martin A. van Nierop
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Fugitive dust has the ability to cause a nuisance and pollute the ambient environment, particularly from human activities including construction and industrial sites and mining operations. As such, dustfall monitoring has occurred for many decades in South Africa; little has been published on the repeatability, uncertainty, accuracy and precision of dustfall monitoring. Repeatability assesses the consistency associated with the results of a particular measurement under the same conditions; the consistency of the laboratory is assessed to determine the uncertainty associated with dustfall monitoring conducted by the laboratory. The aim of this study was to improve the understanding of the uncertainty in dustfall monitoring; thereby improving the confidence in dustfall monitoring. Uncertainty of dustfall monitoring was assessed through a 12-month study of 12 sites that were located on the boundary of the study area. Each site contained a directional dustfall sampler, which was modified by removing the rotating lid, with four buckets (A, B, C and D installed. Having four buckets on one stand allows for each bucket to be exposed to the same conditions, for the same period of time; therefore, should have equal amounts of dust deposited in these buckets. The difference in the weight (mg of the dust recorded from each bucket at each respective site was determined using the American Society for Testing and Materials method D1739 (ASTM D1739. The variability of the dust would provide the confidence level of dustfall monitoring when reporting to clients.
Uncertainty in eddy covariance measurements and its application to physiological models
D.Y. Hollinger; A.D. Richardson; A.D. Richardson
2005-01-01
Flux data are noisy, and this uncertainty is largely due to random measurement error. Knowledge of uncertainty is essential for the statistical evaluation of modeled andmeasured fluxes, for comparison of parameters derived by fitting models to measured fluxes and in formal data-assimilation efforts. We used the difference between simultaneous measurements from two...
Verification of uncertainty budgets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.
2005-01-01
, and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...
Risk Management and Uncertainty in Infrastructure Projects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harty, Chris; Neerup Themsen, Tim; Tryggestad, Kjell
2014-01-01
The assumption that large complex projects should be managed in order to reduce uncertainty and increase predictability is not new. What is relatively new, however, is that uncertainty reduction can and should be obtained through formal risk management approaches. We question both assumptions...... by addressing a more fundamental question about the role of knowledge in current risk management practices. Inquiries into the predominant approaches to risk management in large infrastructure and construction projects reveal their assumptions about knowledge and we discuss the ramifications these have...... for project and construction management. Our argument and claim is that predominant risk management approaches tends to reinforce conventional ideas of project control whilst undermining other notions of value and relevance of built assets and project management process. These approaches fail to consider...
Barriers to formal emergency obstetric care services' utilization.
Essendi, Hildah; Mills, Samuel; Fotso, Jean-Christophe
2011-06-01
Access to appropriate health care including skilled birth attendance at delivery and timely referrals to emergency obstetric care services can greatly reduce maternal deaths and disabilities, yet women in sub-Saharan Africa continue to face limited access to skilled delivery services. This study relies on qualitative data collected from residents of two slums in Nairobi, Kenya in 2006 to investigate views surrounding barriers to the uptake of formal obstetric services. Data indicate that slum dwellers prefer formal to informal obstetric services. However, their efforts to utilize formal emergency obstetric care services are constrained by various factors including ineffective health decision making at the family level, inadequate transport facilities to formal care facilities and insecurity at night, high cost of health services, and inhospitable formal service providers and poorly equipped health facilities in the slums. As a result, a majority of slum dwellers opt for delivery services offered by traditional birth attendants (TBAs) who lack essential skills and equipment, thereby increasing the risk of death and disability. Based on these findings, we maintain that urban poor women face barriers to access of formal obstetric services at family, community, and health facility levels, and efforts to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality among the urban poor must tackle the barriers, which operate at these different levels to hinder women's access to formal obstetric care services. We recommend continuous community education on symptoms of complications related to pregnancy and timely referral. A focus on training of health personnel on "public relations" could also restore confidence in the health-care system with this populace. Further, we recommend improving the health facilities in the slums, improving the services provided by TBAs through capacity building as well as involving TBAs in referral processes to make access to services timely. Measures can also be
Does formal research training lead to academic success in otolaryngology?
Bobian, Michael R; Shah, Noor; Svider, Peter F; Hong, Robert S; Shkoukani, Mahdi A; Folbe, Adam J; Eloy, Jean Anderson
2017-01-01
To evaluate whether formalized research training is associated with higher researcher productivity, academic rank, and acquisition of National Institutes of Health (NIH) grants within academic otolaryngology departments. Each of the 100 civilian otolaryngology program's departmental websites were analyzed to obtain a comprehensive list of faculty members credentials and characteristics, including academic rank, completion of a clinical fellowship, completion of a formal research fellowship, and attainment of a doctorate in philosophy (PhD) degree. We also recorded measures of scholarly impact and successful acquisition of NIH funding. A total of 1,495 academic physicians were included in our study. Of these, 14.1% had formal research training. Bivariate associations showed that formal research training was associated with a greater h-index, increased probability of acquiring NIH funding, and higher academic rank. Using a linear regression model, we found that otolaryngologists possessing a PhD had an associated h-index of 1.8 points higher, and those who completed a formal research fellowship had an h-index of 1.6 points higher. A PhD degree or completion of a research fellowship was not associated with a higher academic rank; however, a higher h-index and previous acquisition of an NIH grant were associated with a higher academic rank. The attainment of NIH funding was three times more likely for those with a formal research fellowship and 8.6 times more likely for otolaryngologists with a PhD degree. Formalized research training is associated with academic success in otolaryngology. Such dedicated research training accompanies greater scholarly impact, acquisition of NIH funding, and a higher academic rank. NA Laryngoscope, 127:E15-E21, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.
Quantum formalism for classical statistics
Wetterich, C.
2018-06-01
In static classical statistical systems the problem of information transport from a boundary to the bulk finds a simple description in terms of wave functions or density matrices. While the transfer matrix formalism is a type of Heisenberg picture for this problem, we develop here the associated Schrödinger picture that keeps track of the local probabilistic information. The transport of the probabilistic information between neighboring hypersurfaces obeys a linear evolution equation, and therefore the superposition principle for the possible solutions. Operators are associated to local observables, with rules for the computation of expectation values similar to quantum mechanics. We discuss how non-commutativity naturally arises in this setting. Also other features characteristic of quantum mechanics, such as complex structure, change of basis or symmetry transformations, can be found in classical statistics once formulated in terms of wave functions or density matrices. We construct for every quantum system an equivalent classical statistical system, such that time in quantum mechanics corresponds to the location of hypersurfaces in the classical probabilistic ensemble. For suitable choices of local observables in the classical statistical system one can, in principle, compute all expectation values and correlations of observables in the quantum system from the local probabilistic information of the associated classical statistical system. Realizing a static memory material as a quantum simulator for a given quantum system is not a matter of principle, but rather of practical simplicity.
Formalized search strategies for human risk contributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rasmussen, J.; Pedersen, O.M.
1982-07-01
For risk management, the results of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) as well as the underlying assumptions can be used as references in a closed-loop risk control; and the analyses of operational experiences as a means of feedback. In this context, the need for explicit definition and documentation of the PRA coverage, including the search strategies applied, is discussed and aids are proposed such as plant description in terms of a formal abstraction hierarchy and use of cause-consequence-charts for the documentation of not only the results of PRA but also of its coverage. Typical human risk contributions are described on the basis of general plant design features relevant for risk and accident analysis. With this background, search strategies for human risk contributions are treated: Under the designation ''work analysis'', procedures for the analysis of familiar, well trained, planned tasks are proposed. Strategies for identifying human risk contributions outside this category are outlined. (author)
Biological formal counterparts of logical machines
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moreno-diaz, R; Hernandez Guarch, F
1983-01-01
The significance of the McCulloch-Pitts formal neural net theory (1943) is still nowadays frequently misunderstood, and their basic units are wrongly considered as factual models for neurons. As a consequence, the whole original theory and its later addenda are unreasonably criticized for their simplicity. But, as it was proved then and since, the theory is after the modular neurophysiological counterpart of logical machines, so that it actually provides biologically plausible models for automata, turing machines, etc., and not vice versa. In its true context, no theory has surpassed its proposals. In McCulloch and Pitts memoriam and for the sake of future theoretical research, the authors stress this important historical point, including also some recent results on the neurophysiological counterparts of modular arbitrary probabilistic automata. 16 references.
Addressing model uncertainty in dose-response: The case of chloroform
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Evans, J.S.
1994-01-01
This paper discusses the issues involved in addressing model uncertainty in the analysis of dose-response relationships. A method for addressing model uncertainty is described and applied to characterize the uncertainty in estimates of the carcinogenic potency of chloroform. The approach, which is rooted in Bayesian concepts of subjective probability, uses probability trees and formally-elicited expert judgments to address model uncertainty. It is argued that a similar approach could be used to improve the characterization of model uncertainty in the dose-response relationships for health effects from ionizing radiation
On formally integrating science and policy: walking the walk
Nichols, James D.; Johnson, Fred A.; Williams, Byron K.; Boomer, G. Scott
2015-01-01
The contribution of science to the development and implementation of policy is typically neither direct nor transparent. In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) made a decision that was unprecedented in natural resource management, turning to an unused and unproven decision process to carry out trust responsibilities mandated by an international treaty. The decision process was adopted for the establishment of annual sport hunting regulations for the most economically important duck population in North America, the 6 to 11 million mallards Anas platyrhynchos breeding in the mid-continent region of north-central United States and central Canada. The key idea underlying the adopted decision process was to formally embed within it a scientific process designed to reduce uncertainty (learn) and thus make better decisions in the future. The scientific process entails use of models to develop predictions of competing hypotheses about system response to the selected action at each decision point. These prediction not only are used to select the optimal management action, but also are compared with the subsequent estimates of system state variables, providing evidence for modifying degrees of confidence in, and hence relative influence of, these models at the next decision point. Science and learning in one step are formally and directly incorporated into the next decision, contrasting with the usual ad hoc and indirect use of scientific results in policy development and decision-making. Application of this approach over the last 20 years has led to a substantial reduction in uncertainty, as well as to an increase in transparency and defensibility of annual decisions and a decrease in the contentiousness of the decision process. As resource managers are faced with increased uncertainty associated with various components of global change, this approach provides a roadmap for the future scientific management of natural resources.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Limperopoulos, G.J.
1995-01-01
This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs
What Determines Firms’ Decisions to Formalize?
Neil McCulloch; Günther G. Schulze; Janina Voss
2010-01-01
In this paper we analyze the decision of small and micro firms to formalize, i.e. to obtain business and other licenses in rural Indonesia. We use the rural investment climate survey (RICS) that consists of non-farm rural enterprises, most of them microenterprises, and analyze the effect of formalization on tax payments, corruption, access to credit and revenue, taking into account the endogeneity of the formalization decision to such benefits and costs. We show, contrary to most of the liter...
NON-FORMAL EDUCATION, OVEREDUCATION AND WAGES
SANDRA NIETO; RAÚL RAMOS
2013-01-01
Why do overeducated workers participate in non-formal education activities? Do not they suffer from an excess of education? Using microdata from the Spanish sample of the 2007 Adult Education Survey, we have found that overeducated workers participate more than the rest in non-formal education and that they earn higher wages than overeducated workers who did not participate. This result can be interpreted as evidence that non-formal education allows overeducated workers to acquire new abiliti...
Survey of Existing Tools for Formal Verification.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Punnoose, Ratish J.; Armstrong, Robert C.; Wong, Matthew H.; Jackson, Mayo
2014-12-01
Formal methods have come into wide use because of their effectiveness in verifying "safety and security" requirements of digital systems; a set of requirements for which testing is mostly ineffective. Formal methods are routinely used in the design and verification of high-consequence digital systems in industry. This report outlines our work in assessing the capabilities of commercial and open source formal tools and the ways in which they can be leveraged in digital design workflows.
Fundamentals of the Pure Spinor Formalism
Hoogeveen, Joost
2010-01-01
This thesis presents recent developments within the pure spinor formalism, which has simplified amplitude computations in perturbative string theory, especially when spacetime fermions are involved. Firstly the worldsheet action of both the minimal and the non-minimal pure spinor formalism is derived from first principles, i.e. from an action with two dimensional diffeomorphism and Weyl invariance. Secondly the decoupling of unphysical states in the minimal pure spinor formalism is proved
Uncertainties and climatic change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.
2008-01-01
Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl
Lemaire, Maurice
2014-01-01
Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.
Uncertainty: lotteries and risk
Ávalos, Eloy
2011-01-01
In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.
Uncertainty calculations made easier
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hogenbirk, A.
1994-07-01
The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)
Matching biomedical ontologies based on formal concept analysis.
Zhao, Mengyi; Zhang, Songmao; Li, Weizhuo; Chen, Guowei
2018-03-19
The goal of ontology matching is to identify correspondences between entities from different yet overlapping ontologies so as to facilitate semantic integration, reuse and interoperability. As a well developed mathematical model for analyzing individuals and structuring concepts, Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) has been applied to ontology matching (OM) tasks since the beginning of OM research, whereas ontological knowledge exploited in FCA-based methods is limited. This motivates the study in this paper, i.e., to empower FCA with as much as ontological knowledge as possible for identifying mappings across ontologies. We propose a method based on Formal Concept Analysis to identify and validate mappings across ontologies, including one-to-one mappings, complex mappings and correspondences between object properties. Our method, called FCA-Map, incrementally generates a total of five types of formal contexts and extracts mappings from the lattices derived. First, the token-based formal context describes how class names, labels and synonyms share lexical tokens, leading to lexical mappings (anchors) across ontologies. Second, the relation-based formal context describes how classes are in taxonomic, partonomic and disjoint relationships with the anchors, leading to positive and negative structural evidence for validating the lexical matching. Third, the positive relation-based context can be used to discover structural mappings. Afterwards, the property-based formal context describes how object properties are used in axioms to connect anchor classes across ontologies, leading to property mappings. Last, the restriction-based formal context describes co-occurrence of classes across ontologies in anonymous ancestors of anchors, from which extended structural mappings and complex mappings can be identified. Evaluation on the Anatomy, the Large Biomedical Ontologies, and the Disease and Phenotype track of the 2016 Ontology Alignment Evaluation Initiative campaign
NON-FORMAL EDUCATION WITHIN THE FUNCTION OF RESPONSIBLE PARENTING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dragana Bogavac
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The aim of this survey was to discover to what degree parental non-formal education is present within the function of responsible parenting. The questionnaire research method was used in the survey. For the purpose of this research a questionnaire of 13 questions was constructed relating to the forms of non-formal education, and another questionnaire of 10 questions relating to the parents’ expectations of non-formal education. The sample included 198 parents. Examination of the scores concerning the presence of certain forms of parental non-formal education realized in cooperation with the school leads to the conclusion that the parents possess a positive attitude towards non-formal education. The analysis showed that the parents’ expectations were not on a satisfactory level. According to the results, the fathers displayed a greater interest towards non-formal education (7.72±1.35 than the mothers (6.93±1.85, (p<0.05. Unemployed parents had a greater score (7.85±1.30 than the employed parents (7.22±1.71, (p<0.05. A difference in the acceptance of non-formal education in accordance with the level of formal education was also noticeable (p<0.001. Respondents with a high school degree displayed the highest level of acceptance (7.97±0.78, while the lowest interest was seen in respondents with an associate degree (6.41±2.29. Univariate linear regression analysis showed that statistically important predictors were: gender (OR: -0.23 (-1.24 – -0.33, p< 0.001, work status (OR: -0.14 (-1.24 – -0.01, < 0.05 and the level of formal education (OR: -0.33 (-0.81 – -0.34, p< 0.001. The final results lead to the conclusion that parental non-formal education supports the concept of lifelong education.
Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert
2008-02-01
confidence interval under different assumptions regarding the data structure. The results stress the importance to invoke statistical methods and also illustrate how the choice of a wrong methodology may affect the quality of risk assessment and foundations for decision making. The uncertainty in assessing the volume of contaminated soil was shown to be dependant only to a low extent on the interpolation technique used for the specific case study analyzed. It is, however, expected that the uncertainty may increase significantly, if more restrictive risk criteria (lower guideline value) are applied. Despite a possible low uncertainty in assessing the contaminated soil volume, the uncertainty in its localization can be substantial. Based on the demo example presented, it comes out that the risk-based input for decision on soil treatment may vary depending on what assumptions were adopted during interpolation process. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation till spatial distribution of contaminant has been demonstrated by studies on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). The results from numerical simulations show that a lack in knowledge on the receptor moving routes may bring about substantial uncertainty in exposure assessment. The presented concept is mainly applicable for 'mobile' receptors on relatively large areas. A number of statistical definitions/methods/concepts are presented in the report of which some are not elaborated on in detail, while readers are referred to proper literature. The mail goal with the study has been rather to shed more light on aspects related to uncertainty in risk assessment and to demonstrate potential consequences of wrong approach than to provide readers with formal guideline and recommendations. However, the outcome from the study will hopefully contribute to the further work on novel approaches towards more reliable risk assessments
A Mathematical Formalization Proposal for Business Growth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gheorghe BAILESTEANU
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Economic sciences have known a spectacular evolution in the last century; beginning to use axiomatic methods, applying mathematical instruments as a decision-making tool. The quest to formalization needs to be addressed from various different angles, reducing entry and operating formal costs, increasing the incentives for firms to operate formally, reducing obstacles to their growth, and searching for inexpensive approaches through which to enforce compliancy with government regulations. This paper proposes a formalized approach to business growth, based on mathematics and logics, taking into consideration the particularities of the economic sector.
Formal Methods for Life-Critical Software
Butler, Ricky W.; Johnson, Sally C.
1993-01-01
The use of computer software in life-critical applications, such as for civil air transports, demands the use of rigorous formal mathematical verification procedures. This paper demonstrates how to apply formal methods to the development and verification of software by leading the reader step-by-step through requirements analysis, design, implementation, and verification of an electronic phone book application. The current maturity and limitations of formal methods tools and techniques are then discussed, and a number of examples of the successful use of formal methods by industry are cited.
Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)
2007-05-01
This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.
Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for the Hiroshima dosimetry reevaluation effort
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Broadhead, B.L.; Lillie, R.A.; Pace, J.V. III; Cacuci, D.G.
1987-01-01
Uncertainty estimates and cross correlations by range/survivor location have been obtained for the free-in-air (FIA) tissue kerma for the Hiroshima atomic event. These uncertainties in the FIA kerma include contributions due to various modeling parameters and the basic cross section data and are given at three ground ranges, 700, 1000 and 1500 m. The estimated uncertainties are nearly constant over the given ground ranges and are approximately 27% for the prompt neutron kerma and secondary gamma kerma and 35% for the prompt gamma kerma. The total kerma uncertainty is dominated by the secondary gamma kerma uncertainties which are in turn largely due to the modeling parameter uncertainties
On treatment of uncertainty in system planning
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Flage, R.; Aven, T.
2009-01-01
In system planning and operation considerable efforts and resources are spent to reduce uncertainties, as a part of project management, uncertainty management and safety management. The basic idea seems to be that uncertainties are purely negative and should be reduced. In this paper we challenge this way of thinking, using a common industry practice as an example. In accordance with this industry practice, three uncertainty interval categories are used: ±40% intervals for the feasibility phase, ±30% intervals for the concept development phase and ±20% intervals for the engineering phase. The problem is that such a regime could easily lead to a conservative management regime encouraging the use of existing methods and tools, as new activities and novel solutions and arrangements necessarily mean increased uncertainties. In the paper we suggest an alternative approach based on uncertainty and risk descriptions, but having no predefined uncertainty reduction structures. The approach makes use of risk assessments and economic optimisation tools such as the expected net present value, but acknowledges the need for broad risk management processes which extend beyond the analyses. Different concerns need to be balanced, including economic aspects, uncertainties and risk, and practicability
Development of Property Models with Uncertainty Estimate for Process Design under Uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hukkerikar, Amol; Sarup, Bent; Abildskov, Jens
more reliable predictions with a new and improved set of model parameters for GC (group contribution) based and CI (atom connectivity index) based models and to quantify the uncertainties in the estimated property values from a process design point-of-view. This includes: (i) parameter estimation using....... The comparison of model prediction uncertainties with reported range of measurement uncertainties is presented for the properties with related available data. The application of the developed methodology to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on the design of different unit operations (distillation column......, the developed methodology can be used to quantify the sensitivity of process design to uncertainties in property estimates; obtain rationally the risk/safety factors in process design; and identify additional experimentation needs in order to reduce most critical uncertainties....
Interacting hadron resonance gas model in the K -matrix formalism
Dash, Ashutosh; Samanta, Subhasis; Mohanty, Bedangadas
2018-05-01
An extension of hadron resonance gas (HRG) model is constructed to include interactions using relativistic virial expansion of partition function. The noninteracting part of the expansion contains all the stable baryons and mesons and the interacting part contains all the higher mass resonances which decay into two stable hadrons. The virial coefficients are related to the phase shifts which are calculated using K -matrix formalism in the present work. We have calculated various thermodynamics quantities like pressure, energy density, and entropy density of the system. A comparison of thermodynamic quantities with noninteracting HRG model, calculated using the same number of hadrons, shows that the results of the above formalism are larger. A good agreement between equation of state calculated in K -matrix formalism and lattice QCD simulations is observed. Specifically, the lattice QCD calculated interaction measure is well described in our formalism. We have also calculated second-order fluctuations and correlations of conserved charges in K -matrix formalism. We observe a good agreement of second-order fluctuations and baryon-strangeness correlation with lattice data below the crossover temperature.
Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Seaby, Lauren Paige
applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...
Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty
Potter, K.
2010-08-12
The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty
Potter, K.; Kniss, J.; Riesenfeld, R.; Johnson, C.R.
2010-01-01
The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Variational formalism for kinetic-MHD instabilities in tokamaks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Edery, D.; Garbet, X.; Roubin, J.P.; Samain, A.
1991-07-01
A variational formalism that includes in a consistent way the tokamak plasma fluid response to an electromagnetic field as well as the particle-field resonant interaction effects is presented. The integrability of the unperturbed motion of the particles is used to establish a general functional similar to the classical Lagrangian for the electromagnetic field, which is extremum with respect to the field potentials. This functional is the sum of fluid terms closely related to the classical MHD energy and of resonant terms describing the kinetic effects. The formalism is used to study a critical issue in tokamak confinement, namely the sawteeth stabilization by energetic particles
Formal training in forensic mental health: psychiatry and psychology.
Sadoff, Robert L; Dattilio, Frank M
2012-01-01
The field of forensic mental health has grown exponentially in the past decades to include forensic psychiatrists and psychologists serving as the primary experts to the court systems. However, many colleagues have chosen to pursue the avenue of serving as forensic experts without obtaining formal training and experience. This article discusses the importance of formal education, training and experience for psychiatrists and psychologists working in forensic settings and the ethical implications that befall those who fail to obtain such credentials. Specific aspects of training and supervised experience are discussed in detail. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Formal Engineering Hybrid Systems: Semantic Underpinnings
Bujorianu, M.C.; Bujorianu, L.M.
2008-01-01
In this work we investigate some issues in applying formal methods to hybrid system development and develop a categorical framework. We study the themes of stochastic reasoning, heterogeneous formal specification and retrenchment. Hybrid systems raise a rich pallets of aspects that need to be
Methodological imperfection and formalizations in scientific activity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Svetlichny, G.
1987-01-01
Any mathematical formalization of scientific activity allows for imperfections in the methodology that is formalized. These can be of three types, dirty, rotten, and dammed. Restricting mathematical attention to those methods that cannot be construed to be imperfect drastically reduces the class of objects that must be analyzed, and related all other objects to these more regular ones. Examples are drawn from empirical logic
DNA expressions - A formal notation for DNA
Vliet, Rudy van
2015-01-01
We describe a formal notation for DNA molecules that may contain nicks and gaps. The resulting DNA expressions denote formal DNA molecules. Different DNA expressions may denote the same molecule. Such DNA expressions are called equivalent. We examine which DNA expressions are minimal, which
Formalizing Evaluation in Music Information Retrieval
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sturm, Bob L.
2013-01-01
We develop a formalism to disambiguate the evaluation of music information retrieval systems. We define a ``system,'' what it means to ``analyze'' one, and make clear the aims, parts, design, execution, interpretation, and assumptions of its ``evaluation.'' We apply this formalism to discuss...
37 CFR 251.41 - Formal hearings.
2010-07-01
... ARBITRATION ROYALTY PANEL RULES AND PROCEDURES COPYRIGHT ARBITRATION ROYALTY PANEL RULES OF PROCEDURE Procedures of Copyright Arbitration Royalty Panels § 251.41 Formal hearings. (a) The formal hearings that will be conducted under the rules of this subpart are rate adjustment hearings and royalty fee...
Restorative Practices as Formal and Informal Education
Carter, Candice C.
2013-01-01
This article reviews restorative practices (RP) as education in formal and informal contexts of learning that are fertile sites for cultivating peace. Formal practices involve instruction about response to conflict, while informal learning occurs beyond academic lessons. The research incorporated content analysis and a critical examination of the…
Multiverse in the Third Quantized Formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Faizal Mir
2014-01-01
In this paper we will analyze the third quantization of gravity in path integral formalism. We will use the time-dependent version of Wheeler—DeWitt equation to analyze the multiverse in this formalism. We will propose a mechanism for baryogenesis to occur in the multiverse, without violating the baryon number conservation. (general)
Formal balancing of chemical reaction networks
van der Schaft, Abraham; Rao, S.; Jayawardhana, B.
2016-01-01
In this paper we recall and extend the main results of Van der Schaft, Rao, Jayawardhana (2015) concerning the use of Kirchhoff’s Matrix Tree theorem in the explicit characterization of complex-balanced reaction networks and the notion of formal balancing. The notion of formal balancing corresponds
Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Artawan, I. Nengah, E-mail: nengahartawan@gmail.com [Theoretical Physics Division, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia); Trisnawati, N. L. P., E-mail: nlptrisnawati@gmail.com [Biophysics, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia)
2016-03-11
Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism is proposed. The core of the quantum formalism is on the half spin dynamics system. In this research the implicit time evolution operators are derived. The analogy between the model with Deffuant dan Sznajd models is discussed.
Rapid Prototyping of Formally Modelled Distributed Systems
Buchs, Didier; Buffo, Mathieu; Titsworth, Frances M.
1999-01-01
This paper presents various kinds of prototypes, used in the prototyping of formally modelled distributed systems. It presents the notions of prototyping techniques and prototype evolution, and shows how to relate them to the software life-cycle. It is illustrated through the use of the formal modelling language for distributed systems CO-OPN/2.
Formal analysis of a fair payment protocol
J.G. Cederquist; M.T. Dashti (Mohammad)
2004-01-01
textabstractWe formally specify a payment protocol. This protocol is intended for fair exchange of time-sensitive data. Here the ?-CRL language is used to formalize the protocol. Fair exchange properties are expressed in the regular alternation-free ?-calculus. These properties are then verified
Formal Analysis of a Fair Payment Protocol
Cederquist, J.G.; Dashti, M.T.
2004-01-01
We formally specify a payment protocol. This protocol is intended for fair exchange of timesensitive data. Here the μCRL language is used to formalize the protocol. Fair exchange properties are expressed in the regular alternation-free μ-calculus. These properties are then verified using the finite
Formal Analysis of a Fair Payment Protocol
Cederquist, J.G.; Dashti, Muhammad Torabi; Dimitrakos, Theo; Martinelli, Fabio
We formally specify a payment protocol described by Vogt et al. This protocol is intended for fair exchange of time-sensitive data. Here the mCRL language is used to formalize the protocol. Fair exchange properties are expressed in the regular alternation-free mu-calculus. These properties are then
On Fitting a Formal Method into Practice
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gmehlich, Rainer; Grau, Katrin; Hallerstede, Stefan
2011-01-01
. The interaction between the two proved to be crucial for the success of the case study. The heart of the problem was tracing informal requirements from Problem Frames descriptions to formal Event-B models. To a large degree, this issue dictated the approach that had to be used for formal modelling. A dedicated...
A Conceptual Formalization of Crosscutting in AOSD
van den Berg, Klaas; Conejero, J.M.
2005-01-01
We propose a formalization of crosscutting based on a conceptual framework for AOSD. Crosscutting is clearly distinguished from the related concepts scattering and tangling. The definitions of these concepts are formalized and visualized with matrices and matrix operations. This allows more precise
Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures
Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian
2011-01-01
This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.
A Framework for Formal Modeling and Analysis of Organizations
Jonker, C.M.; Sharpanskykh, O.; Treur, J.; P., Yolum
2007-01-01
A new, formal, role-based, framework for modeling and analyzing both real world and artificial organizations is introduced. It exploits static and dynamic properties of the organizational model and includes the (frequently ignored) environment. The transition is described from a generic framework of
Non-Formal Educator Use of Evaluation Results
Baughman, Sarah; Boyd, Heather H.; Franz, Nancy K.
2012-01-01
Increasing demands for accountability in educational programming have resulted in increasing calls for program evaluation in educational organizations. Many organizations include conducting program evaluations as part of the job responsibilities of program staff. Cooperative Extension is a complex organization offering non-formal educational…
Calculations of the transport properties within the PAW formalism
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mazevet, S.; Torrent, M.; Recoules, V.; Jollet, F. [CEA Bruyeres-le-Chatel, DIF, 91 (France)
2010-07-01
We implemented the calculation of the transport properties within the PAW formalism in the ABINIT code. This feature allows the calculation of the electrical and optical properties, including the XANES spectrum, as well as the electronic contribution to the thermal conductivity. We present here the details of the implementation and results obtained for warm dense aluminum plasma. (authors)
A matricial approach for the Dirac-Kahler formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goto, M.
1987-01-01
A matricial approach for the Dirac-Kahler formalism is considered. It is shown that the matrical approach i) brings a great computational simplification compared to the common use of differential forms and that ii) by an appropriate choice of notation, it can be extended to the lattice, including a matrix Dirac-Kahler equation. (author) [pt
Verburg, P.H.; Tabeau, A.A.; Hatna, E.
2013-01-01
Land change model outcomes are vulnerable to multiple types of uncertainty, including uncertainty in input data, structural uncertainties in the model and uncertainties in model parameters. In coupled model systems the uncertainties propagate between the models. This paper assesses uncertainty of
Pure spinor formalism as an N = 2 topological string
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berkovits, Nathan
2005-01-01
Following suggestions of Nekrasov and Siegel, a non-minimal set of fields are added to the pure spinor formalism for the superstring. Twisted c-circumflex = 3 N = 2 generators are then constructed where the pure spinor BRST operator is the fermionic spin-one generator, and the formalism is interpreted as a critical topological string. Three applications of this topological string theory include the super-Poincare covariant computation of multiloop superstring amplitudes without picture-changing operators, the construction of a cubic open superstring field theory without contact-term problems, and a new four-dimensional version of the pure spinor formalism which computes F-terms in the spacetime action
Formalization and Implementation of Algebraic Methods in Geometry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Filip Marić
2012-02-01
Full Text Available We describe our ongoing project of formalization of algebraic methods for geometry theorem proving (Wu's method and the Groebner bases method, their implementation and integration in educational tools. The project includes formal verification of the algebraic methods within Isabelle/HOL proof assistant and development of a new, open-source Java implementation of the algebraic methods. The project should fill-in some gaps still existing in this area (e.g., the lack of formal links between algebraic methods and synthetic geometry and the lack of self-contained implementations of algebraic methods suitable for integration with dynamic geometry tools and should enable new applications of theorem proving in education.
Formal modelling and analysis of socio-technical systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Probst, Christian W.; Kammüller, Florian; Hansen, Rene Rydhof
2016-01-01
systems are still mostly identified through brainstorming of experts. In this work we discuss several approaches to formalising socio-technical systems and their analysis. Starting from a flow logic-based analysis of the insider threat, we discuss how to include the socio aspects explicitly, and show......Attacks on systems and organisations increasingly exploit human actors, for example through social engineering. This non-technical aspect of attacks complicates their formal treatment and automatic identification. Formalisation of human behaviour is difficult at best, and attacks on socio-technical...... a formalisation that proves properties of this formalisation. On the formal side, our work closes the gap between formal and informal approaches to socio-technical systems. On the informal side, we show how to steal a birthday cake from a bakery by social engineering....
Pricing of medical devices under coverage uncertainty--a modelling approach.
Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry P
2012-12-01
Product vendors and manufacturers are increasingly aware that purchasers of health care will fund new clinical treatments only if they are perceived to deliver value-for-money. This influences companies' internal commercial decisions, including the price they set for their products. Other things being equal, there is a price threshold, which is the maximum price at which the device will be funded and which, if its value were known, would play a central role in price determination. This paper examines the problem of pricing a medical device from the vendor's point of view in the presence of uncertainty about what the price threshold will be. A formal solution is obtained by maximising the expected value of the net revenue function, assuming a Bayesian prior distribution for the price threshold. A least admissible price is identified. The model can also be used as a tool for analysing proposed pricing policies when no formal prior specification of uncertainty is available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Industrial Practice in Formal Methods : A Review
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bicarregui, Juan C.; Fitzgerald, John; Larsen, Peter Gorm
2009-01-01
We examine the the industrial application of formal methods using data gathered in a review of 62 projects taking place over the last 25 years. The review suggests that formal methods are being applied in a wide range of application domains, with increasingly strong tool support. Significant chal...... challenges remain in providing usable tools that can be integrated into established development processes; in education and training; in taking formal methods from first use to second use, and in gathering and evidence to support informed selection of methods and tools.......We examine the the industrial application of formal methods using data gathered in a review of 62 projects taking place over the last 25 years. The review suggests that formal methods are being applied in a wide range of application domains, with increasingly strong tool support. Significant...
SBME : Exploring boundaries between formal, non-formal, and informal learning
Shahoumian, Armineh; Parchoma, Gale; Saunders, Murray; Hanson, Jacky; Dickinson, Mike; Pimblett, Mark
2013-01-01
In medical education learning extends beyond university settings into practice. Non-formal and informal learning support learners’ efforts to meet externally set and learner-identified objectives. In SBME research, boundaries between formal, non-formal, and informal learning have not been widely explored. Whether SBME fits within or challenges these categories can make a contribution. Formal learning is described in relation to educational settings, planning, assessment, and accreditation. In...
Formal representation of complex SNOMED CT expressions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Markó Kornél
2008-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Definitory expressions about clinical procedures, findings and diseases constitute a major benefit of a formally founded clinical reference terminology which is ontologically sound and suited for formal reasoning. SNOMED CT claims to support formal reasoning by description-logic based concept definitions. Methods On the basis of formal ontology criteria we analyze complex SNOMED CT concepts, such as "Concussion of Brain with(out Loss of Consciousness", using alternatively full first order logics and the description logic ℰℒ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaagaart1ev2aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaWenfgDOvwBHrxAJfwnHbqeg0uy0HwzTfgDPnwy1aaceaGae8hmHuKae8NeHWeaaa@37B1@. Results Typical complex SNOMED CT concepts, including negations or not, can be expressed in full first-order logics. Negations cannot be properly expressed in the description logic ℰℒ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaagaart1ev2aaatCvAUfKttLearuWrP9MDH5MBPbIqV92AaeXatLxBI9gBaebbnrfifHhDYfgasaacPC6xNi=xH8viVGI8Gi=hEeeu0xXdbba9frFj0xb9qqpG0dXdb9aspeI8k8fiI+fsY=rqGqVepae9pg0db9vqaiVgFr0xfr=xfr=xc9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaaeqabiWaaaGcbaWenfgDOvwBHrxAJfwnHbqeg0uy0HwzTfgDPnwy1aaceaGae8hmHuKae8NeHWeaaa@37B1@ underlying SNOMED CT. All concepts concepts the meaning of which implies a temporal scope may be subject to diverging interpretations, which are often unclear in SNOMED CT as their contextual determinants are not made explicit. Conclusion The description of complex medical occurrents is ambiguous, as the same situations can be described as (i a complex occurrent C that has A and B as temporal parts, (ii a simple occurrent A' defined as a kind of A followed by some B, or (iii a simple occurrent B' defined as a kind of B preceded by some A. As negative statements in SNOMED CT cannot be exactly represented without
Sensitivity-Uncertainty Techniques for Nuclear Criticality Safety
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brown, Forrest B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rising, Michael Evan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Alwin, Jennifer Louise [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-08-07
The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis course will introduce students to k_{eff} sensitivity data, cross-section uncertainty data, how k_{eff} sensitivity data and k_{eff} uncertainty data are generated and how they can be used. Discussion will include how sensitivity/uncertainty data can be used to select applicable critical experiments, to quantify a defensible margin to cover validation gaps and weaknesses, and in development of upper subcritical limits.
Improving Learner Outcomes in Lifelong Education: Formal Pedagogies in Non-Formal Learning Contexts?
Zepke, Nick; Leach, Linda
2006-01-01
This article explores how far research findings about successful pedagogies in formal post-school education might be used in non-formal learning contexts--settings where learning may not lead to formal qualifications. It does this by examining a learner outcomes model adapted from a synthesis of research into retention. The article first…
Dealing with exploration uncertainties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Capen, E.
1992-01-01
Exploration for oil and gas should fulfill the most adventurous in their quest for excitement and surprise. This paper tries to cover that tall order. The authors will touch on the magnitude of the uncertainty (which is far greater than in most other businesses), the effects of not knowing target sizes very well, how to build uncertainty into analyses naturally, how to tie reserves and chance estimates to economics, and how to look at the portfolio effect of an exploration program. With no apologies, the authors will be using a different language for some readers - the language of uncertainty, which means probability and statistics. These tools allow one to combine largely subjective exploration information with the more analytical data from the engineering and economic side
Rivera, Diego; Rivas, Yessica; Godoy, Alex
2015-02-01
Hydrological models are simplified representations of natural processes and subject to errors. Uncertainty bounds are a commonly used way to assess the impact of an input or model architecture uncertainty in model outputs. Different sets of parameters could have equally robust goodness-of-fit indicators, which is known as Equifinality. We assessed the outputs from a lumped conceptual hydrological model to an agricultural watershed in central Chile under strong interannual variability (coefficient of variability of 25%) by using the Equifinality concept and uncertainty bounds. The simulation period ran from January 1999 to December 2006. Equifinality and uncertainty bounds from GLUE methodology (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) were used to identify parameter sets as potential representations of the system. The aim of this paper is to exploit the use of uncertainty bounds to differentiate behavioural parameter sets in a simple hydrological model. Then, we analyze the presence of equifinality in order to improve the identification of relevant hydrological processes. The water balance model for Chillan River exhibits, at a first stage, equifinality. However, it was possible to narrow the range for the parameters and eventually identify a set of parameters representing the behaviour of the watershed (a behavioural model) in agreement with observational and soft data (calculation of areal precipitation over the watershed using an isohyetal map). The mean width of the uncertainty bound around the predicted runoff for the simulation period decreased from 50 to 20 m3s-1 after fixing the parameter controlling the areal precipitation over the watershed. This decrement is equivalent to decreasing the ratio between simulated and observed discharge from 5.2 to 2.5. Despite the criticisms against the GLUE methodology, such as the lack of statistical formality, it is identified as a useful tool assisting the modeller with the identification of critical parameters.
Managing Innovation In View Of The Uncertainties
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anton Igorevich Mosalev
2012-12-01
Full Text Available Study of the problems of uncertainty in innovation is at present the most up to date. Approaches to its definition, arranged primarily on the assumption and include the known parameters, which essentially is a game approach to the assessment. Address specific issues of governance of innovation in accounting uncertainty still remains open and the most relevant, especially when the innovation represented by one of the drivers of growth of national economies. This paper presents a methodological approach to determining the degree of uncertainty and an approach to the management of innovation through a system of mathematical modeling on the criterion of gross errors.
Uncertainties in Safety Analysis. A literature review
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ekberg, C.
1995-05-01
The purpose of the presented work has been to give a short summary of the origins of many uncertainties arising in the designing and performance assessment of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Some different methods to treat these uncertainties is also included. The methods and conclusions are in many cases general in the sense that they are applicable to many other disciplines where simulations are used. As a conclusion it may be noted that uncertainties of different origin have been discussed and debated, but one large group, e.g. computer simulations, where the methods to make a more explicit investigation exists, have not been investigated in a satisfying way. 50 refs
Uncertainties in Safety Analysis. A literature review
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ekberg, C [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear Chemistry
1995-05-01
The purpose of the presented work has been to give a short summary of the origins of many uncertainties arising in the designing and performance assessment of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Some different methods to treat these uncertainties is also included. The methods and conclusions are in many cases general in the sense that they are applicable to many other disciplines where simulations are used. As a conclusion it may be noted that uncertainties of different origin have been discussed and debated, but one large group, e.g. computer simulations, where the methods to make a more explicit investigation exists, have not been investigated in a satisfying way. 50 refs.
Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD
1990-01-01
Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i
A Linguistic Truth-Valued Temporal Reasoning Formalism and Its Implementation
Lu, Zhirui; Liu, Jun; Augusto, Juan C.; Wang, Hui
Temporality and uncertainty are important features of many real world systems. Solving problems in such systems requires the use of formal mechanism such as logic systems, statistical methods or other reasoning and decision-making methods. In this paper, we propose a linguistic truth-valued temporal reasoning formalism to enable the management of both features concurrently using a linguistic truth valued logic and a temporal logic. We also provide a backward reasoning algorithm which allows the answering of user queries. A simple but realistic scenario in a smart home application is used to illustrate our work.
Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Johnson, Jay Dean (ProStat, Mesa, AZ); Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.
2008-08-01
Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.
Uncertainties in repository modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, J.R.
1996-12-31
The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.
Uncertainties in repository modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wilson, J.R.
1996-01-01
The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.
1990-01-01
The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de
Formal Analysis Of Use Case Diagrams
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radosław Klimek
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Use case diagrams play an important role in modeling with UML. Careful modeling is crucialin obtaining a correct and efficient system architecture. The paper refers to the formalanalysis of the use case diagrams. A formal model of use cases is proposed and its constructionfor typical relationships between use cases is described. Two methods of formal analysis andverification are presented. The first one based on a states’ exploration represents a modelchecking approach. The second one refers to the symbolic reasoning using formal methodsof temporal logic. Simple but representative example of the use case scenario verification isdiscussed.
Interactions between perceived uncertainty types in service dyads
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kreye, Melanie
2018-01-01
to avoid business failure. A conceptual framework of four uncertainty types is investigated: environmental, technological, organisational, and relational uncertainty. We present insights from four empirical cases of service dyads collected via multiple sources of evidence including 54 semi-structured...... interviews, observations, and secondary data. The cases show seven interaction paths with direct knock-on effects between two uncertainty types and indirect knock-on effects between three or four uncertainty types. The findings suggest a causal chain from environmental, technological, organisational......, to relational uncertainty. This research contributes to the servitization literature by (i) con-firming the existence of uncertainty types, (ii) providing an in-depth characterisation of technological uncertainty, and (iii) showing the interaction paths between four uncertainty types in the form of a causal...
SELF-EFFICACY OF FORMALLY AND NON-FORMALLY TRAINED PUBLIC SECTOR TEACHERS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muhammad Nadeem ANWAR
2009-07-01
Full Text Available The main objective of the study was to compare the formally and non-formally trained in-service public sector teachers’ Self-efficacy. Five hypotheses were developed describing no difference in the self-efficacy of formally and non-formally trained teachers to influence decision making, influence school resources, instructional self-efficacy, disciplinary self-efficacy and create positive school climate. Teacher Efficacy Instrument (TSES developed by Bandura (2001 consisting of thirty 9-point items was used in the study. 342 formally trained and 255 non-formally trained respondents’ questionnaires were received out of 1500 mailed. The analysis of data revealed that the formally trained public sector teachers are high in their self-efficacy on all the five categories: to influence decision making, to influence school resources, instructional self-efficacy, disciplinary self-efficacy and self-efficacy to create positive school climate.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.
2011-01-01
Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.
Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian
2013-04-01
climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on 2 small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment method with 2 different likelihood functions. One was a time-series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was a likelihood function for the flow quantiles directly. Due to the better data coverage and smaller hydrological complexity in one of our test catchments we had better performance from the hydrological model and thus could observe that the relative importance of different uncertainty sources varied between sites, boundary conditions and flow indicators. The uncertainty of future climate was important, but not dominant. The deficiencies of the hydrological model were on the same scale, especially for the sites and flow components where model performance for the past observations was further from optimal (Nash-Sutcliffe index = 0.5 - 0.7). The overall uncertainty of predictions was well beyond the expected change signal even for the best performing site and flow indicator.
Uncertainty quantification for environmental models
Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming
2012-01-01
Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10
Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P
1997-01-01
At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.
The role of sensitivity analysis in assessing uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crick, M.J.; Hill, M.D.
1987-01-01
Outside the specialist world of those carrying out performance assessments considerable confusion has arisen about the meanings of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. In this paper we attempt to reduce this confusion. We then go on to review approaches to sensitivity analysis within the context of assessing uncertainty, and to outline the types of test available to identify sensitive parameters, together with their advantages and disadvantages. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors; they have not been formally endorsed by the National Radiological Protection Board and should not be interpreted as Board advice
Improvement of Statistical Decisions under Parametric Uncertainty
Nechval, Nicholas A.; Nechval, Konstantin N.; Purgailis, Maris; Berzins, Gundars; Rozevskis, Uldis
2011-10-01
A large number of problems in production planning and scheduling, location, transportation, finance, and engineering design require that decisions be made in the presence of uncertainty. Decision-making under uncertainty is a central problem in statistical inference, and has been formally studied in virtually all approaches to inference. The aim of the present paper is to show how the invariant embedding technique, the idea of which belongs to the authors, may be employed in the particular case of finding the improved statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the invariance principle in mathematical statistics. Unlike the Bayesian approach, an invariant embedding technique is independent of the choice of priors. It allows one to eliminate unknown parameters from the problem and to find the best invariant decision rule, which has smaller risk than any of the well-known decision rules. To illustrate the proposed technique, application examples are given.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fu Yuhua
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The most famous contribution of Heisenberg is uncertainty principle. But the original uncertainty principle is improper. Considering all the possible situations (including the case that people can create laws and applying Neutrosophy and Quad-stage Method, this paper presents "certainty-uncertainty principles" with general form and variable dimension fractal form. According to the classification of Neutrosophy, "certainty-uncertainty principles" can be divided into three principles in different conditions: "certainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously; "uncertainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum cannot be known simultaneously; and neutral (fuzzy "indeterminacy principle", namely whether or not a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously is undetermined. The special cases of "certain ty-uncertainty principles" include the original uncertainty principle and Ozawa inequality. In addition, in accordance with the original uncertainty principle, discussing high-speed particle’s speed and track with Newton mechanics is unreasonable; but according to "certaintyuncertainty principles", Newton mechanics can be used to discuss the problem of gravitational defection of a photon orbit around the Sun (it gives the same result of deflection angle as given by general relativity. Finally, for the reason that in physics the principles, laws and the like that are regardless of the principle (law of conservation of energy may be invalid; therefore "certaintyuncertainty principles" should be restricted (or constrained by principle (law of conservation of energy, and thus it can satisfy the principle (law of conservation of energy.
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Cooper, Antony K
2011-07-01
Full Text Available , Information and Computational Viewpoints of the Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP). We identified six stakeholders: Policy Maker, Producer, Provider, Broker, Value-added Reseller and End User. The Internet has spawned the development...
FORMAL UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR POLLUTION MODEL. (R824792)
This study applied Monte Carlo analysis with Latinhypercube sampling to evaluate the effects of uncertaintyin air parcel trajectory paths, emissions, rate constants,deposition affinities, mixing heights, and atmospheric stabilityon predictions from a vertically...
Toward a formal ontology for narrative
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ciotti, Fabio
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper the rationale and the first draft of a formal ontology for modeling narrative texts are presented. Building on the semiotic and structuralist narratology, and on the work carried out in the late 1980s by Giuseppe Gigliozzi in Italy, the focus of my research are the concepts of character and of narrative world/space. This formal model is expressed in the OWL 2 ontology language. The main reason to adopt a formal modeling approach is that I consider the purely probabilistic-quantitative methods (now widespread in digital literary studies inadequate. An ontology, on one hand provides a tool for the analysis of strictly literary texts. On the other hand (though beyond the scope of the present work, its formalization can also represent a significant contribution towards grounding the application of storytelling methods outside of scholarly contexts.
A hydrodynamic formalism for Brownian systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pina, E.; Rosales, M.A.
1981-01-01
A formal hydrodynamic approach to Brownian motion is presented and the corresponding equations are derived. Hydrodynamic quantities are expressed in terms of the physical variables characterizing the Brownian systems. Contact is made with the hydrodynamic model of Quantum Mechanics. (author)
Infinitesimal Deformations of a Formal Symplectic Groupoid
Karabegov, Alexander
2011-09-01
Given a formal symplectic groupoid G over a Poisson manifold ( M, π 0), we define a new object, an infinitesimal deformation of G, which can be thought of as a formal symplectic groupoid over the manifold M equipped with an infinitesimal deformation {π_0 + \\varepsilon π_1} of the Poisson bivector field π 0. To any pair of natural star products {(ast,tildeast)} having the same formal symplectic groupoid G we relate an infinitesimal deformation of G. We call it the deformation groupoid of the pair {(ast,tildeast)} . To each star product with separation of variables {ast} on a Kähler-Poisson manifold M we relate another star product with separation of variables {hatast} on M. We build an algorithm for calculating the principal symbols of the components of the logarithm of the formal Berezin transform of a star product with separation of variables {ast} . This algorithm is based upon the deformation groupoid of the pair {(ast,hatast)}.
Does Formal Environmental Knowledge Inform the Everyday ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
How do senior secondary biology learners from three schools in Lesotho use this ... environmental literacy as a goal of science education is mentioned. ..... formal schooling context) or actions informed by informal information, which we ...
Towards a Formal Treatment of Implicit Invocation
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Dingel, J
1997-01-01
.... A formal computational model for implicit invocation is presented. We develop a verification framework for implicit invocation that is based on Jones' rely/guarantee reasoning for concurrent systems Jon83,St(phi)91...
Formal education of curriculum and instructional designers
McKenney, Susan; Visscher-Voerman, Irene
2013-01-01
McKenney, S., & Visscher-Voerman, I. (2013). Formal education of curriculum and instructional designers. Educational Designer, 2(6). Available online: http://www.educationaldesigner.org/ed/volume2/issue6/article20/index.htm
Transitions from Formal Education to the Workplace
Olson, Joann S.
2014-01-01
This chapter frames the transition to adulthood in the context of the moving from formal educational settings to the often less-structured learning that occurs in workplace settings. Although schooling may end, learning continues.
Statistical Survey of Non-Formal Education
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ondřej Nývlt
2012-12-01
Full Text Available focused on a programme within a regular education system. Labour market flexibility and new requirements on employees create a new domain of education called non-formal education. Is there a reliable statistical source with a good methodological definition for the Czech Republic? Labour Force Survey (LFS has been the basic statistical source for time comparison of non-formal education for the last ten years. Furthermore, a special Adult Education Survey (AES in 2011 was focused on individual components of non-formal education in a detailed way. In general, the goal of the EU is to use data from both internationally comparable surveys for analyses of the particular fields of lifelong learning in the way, that annual LFS data could be enlarged by detailed information from AES in five years periods. This article describes reliability of statistical data aboutnon-formal education. This analysis is usually connected with sampling and non-sampling errors.
Towards a Formal Model of Social Data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mukkamala, Raghava Rao; Vatrapu, Ravi; Hussain, Abid
, transform, analyse, and report social data from social media platforms such as Facebook and twitter. Formal methods, models and tools for social data are largely limited to graph theoretical approaches informing conceptual developments in relational sociology and methodological developments in social...... network analysis. As far as we know, there are no integrated modeling approaches to social data across the conceptual, formal and software realms. Social media analytics can be undertaken in two main ways - ”Social Graph Analytics” and ”Social Text Analytics” (Vatrapu, in press/2013). Social graph......, we exemplify the semantics of the formal model with real-world social data examples. Third, we briefly present and discuss the Social Data Analytics Tool (SODATO) that realizes the conceptual model in software and provisions social data for computational social science analysis based on the formal...
El Salvador - Non-Formal Skills Development
Millennium Challenge Corporation — The Non-Formal Skills Development Sub-Activity had a budget of $5 million (USD) to provide short-term training to vulnerable populations in El Salvador's Northern...
Film for Non-Formal Education.
Jenkins, Janet
1979-01-01
Looks at educational factors in using television or cinema film for non-formal education in developing nations. Styles of presentation in films are discussed, and suggestions are made for assessing effectiveness. (JEG)
Quantum Uncertainty and Fundamental Interactions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tosto S.
2013-04-01
Full Text Available The paper proposes a simplified theoretical approach to infer some essential concepts on the fundamental interactions between charged particles and their relative strengths at comparable energies by exploiting the quantum uncertainty only. The worth of the present approach relies on the way of obtaining the results, rather than on the results themselves: concepts today acknowledged as fingerprints of the electroweak and strong interactions appear indeed rooted in the same theoretical frame including also the basic principles of special and general relativity along with the gravity force.
Uncertainties, confidence ellipsoids and security polytopes in LSA
Grabe, Michael
1992-05-01
For a given error model, the uncertainties of and the couplings between parameters estimated by a least-squares adjustment (LSA) are formalized. The error model is restricted to normally distributed random errors and to systematic errors that remain constant during measurement, but whose magnitudes and signs are unknown. An outline of the associated, new formalism for estimating measurement uncertainties is sketched as regards its function as a measure of the consistency between theory and experiment. The couplings due to random errors lead to ellipsoids stemming from singular linear mappings of Hotelling's ellipsoids. Those introduced by systematic errors create convex polytopes, so-called security polytopes, which are singular linear mappings of hyperblocks caused by a ldworst-case treatment” of systematic errors.
Formal solutions of inverse scattering problems. III
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prosser, R.T.
1980-01-01
The formal solutions of certain three-dimensional inverse scattering problems presented in papers I and II of this series [J. Math. Phys. 10, 1819 (1969); 17 1175 (1976)] are obtained here as fixed points of a certain nonlinear mapping acting on a suitable Banach space of integral kernels. When the scattering data are sufficiently restricted, this mapping is shown to be a contraction, thereby establishing the existence, uniqueness, and continuous dependence on the data of these formal solutions
Formalization of Many-Valued Logics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Villadsen, Jørgen; Schlichtkrull, Anders
2017-01-01
Partiality is a key challenge for computational approaches to artificial intelligence in general and natural language in particular. Various extensions of classical two-valued logic to many-valued logics have been investigated in order to meet this challenge. We use the proof assistant Isabelle...... to formalize the syntax and semantics of many-valued logics with determinate as well as indeterminate truth values. The formalization allows for a concise presentation and makes automated verification possible....
Young People, Entrepreneurship And Non Formal Learning
Pantea, Maria-Carmen; Diroescu, Raluca; Podlasek-Ziegler, Maria
2016-01-01
The book was published by SALTO-Youth Participation, a Resource Centre of the European Commission. It looks into the relationship between youth work (non-formal learning) and entrepreneurship. The book explores the theoretical developments in the field, the ethical dilemmas and tensions, and proposes practice-oriented information: illustrative examples, strategies for action and methods of non-formal education. Structured in 24 chapters, the book is an opportunity to open up debates and quest...
Improved formalism for precision Higgs coupling fits
Barklow, Tim; Fujii, Keisuke; Jung, Sunghoon; Karl, Robert; List, Jenny; Ogawa, Tomohisa; Peskin, Michael E.; Tian, Junping
2018-03-01
Future e+e- colliders give the promise of model-independent determinations of the couplings of the Higgs boson. In this paper, we present an improved formalism for extracting Higgs boson couplings from e+e- data, based on the effective field theory description of corrections to the Standard Model. We apply this formalism to give projections of Higgs coupling accuracies for stages of the International Linear Collider and for other proposed e+e- colliders.
Improved formalism for precision Higgs coupling fits
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barklow, Tim; Peskin, Michael E.; Jung, Sunghoon; Tian, Junping
2017-08-01
Future e + e - colliders give the promise of model-independent determinations of the couplings of the Higgs boson. In this paper, we present an improved formalism for extracting Higgs boson couplings from e + e - data, based on the Effective Field Theory description of corrections to the Standard Model. We apply this formalism to give projections of Higgs coupling accuracies for stages of the International Linear Collider and for other proposed e + e - colliders.
Measurement Errors and Uncertainties Theory and Practice
Rabinovich, Semyon G
2006-01-01
Measurement Errors and Uncertainties addresses the most important problems that physicists and engineers encounter when estimating errors and uncertainty. Building from the fundamentals of measurement theory, the author develops the theory of accuracy of measurements and offers a wealth of practical recommendations and examples of applications. This new edition covers a wide range of subjects, including: - Basic concepts of metrology - Measuring instruments characterization, standardization and calibration -Estimation of errors and uncertainty of single and multiple measurements - Modern probability-based methods of estimating measurement uncertainty With this new edition, the author completes the development of the new theory of indirect measurements. This theory provides more accurate and efficient methods for processing indirect measurement data. It eliminates the need to calculate the correlation coefficient - a stumbling block in measurement data processing - and offers for the first time a way to obtain...
Policy Uncertainty and the US Ethanol Industry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jason P. H. Jones
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2, as implemented, has introduced uncertainty into US ethanol producers and the supporting commodity market. First, the fixed mandate for what is mainly cornstarch-based ethanol has increased feedstock price volatility and exerts a general effect across the agricultural sector. Second, the large discrepancy between the original Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA intentions and the actual RFS2 implementation for some fuel classes has increased the investment uncertainty facing investors in biofuel production, distribution, and consumption. Here we discuss and analyze the sources of uncertainty and evaluate the effect of potential RFS2 adjustments as they influence these uncertainties. This includes the use of a flexible, production dependent mandate on corn starch ethanol. We find that a flexible mandate on cornstarch ethanol relaxed during drought could significantly reduce commodity price spikes and alleviate the decline of livestock production in cases of feedstock production shortfalls, but it would increase the risk for ethanol investors.
Boltzmann hierarchy for interacting neutrinos I: formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oldengott, Isabel M.; Rampf, Cornelius; Wong, Yvonne Y.Y.
2015-01-01
Starting from the collisional Boltzmann equation, we derive for the first time and from first principles the Boltzmann hierarchy for neutrinos including interactions with a scalar particle. Such interactions appear, for example, in majoron-like models of neutrino mass generation. We study two limits of the scalar mass: (i) An extremely massive scalar whose only role is to mediate an effective 4-fermion neutrino-neutrino interaction, and (ii) a massless scalar that can be produced in abundance and thus demands its own Boltzmann hierarchy. In contrast to, e.g., the first-order Boltzmann hierarchy for Thomson-scattering photons, our interacting neutrino/scalar Boltzmann hierarchies contain additional momentum-dependent collision terms arising from a non-negligible energy transfer in the neutrino-neutrino and neutrino-scalar interactions. This necessitates that we track each momentum mode of the phase space distributions individually, even if the particles were massless. Comparing our hierarchy with the commonly used (c eff 2 ,c vis 2 )-parameterisation, we find no formal correspondence between the two approaches, which raises the question of whether the latter parameterisation even has an interpretation in terms of particle scattering. Lastly, although we have invoked majoron-like models as a motivation for our study, our treatment is in fact generally applicable to all scenarios in which the neutrino and/or other ultrarelativistic fermions interact with scalar particles
Some formal problems in gauge theories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Magpantay, J.A.
1980-01-01
The concerns of this thesis are the problems due to the extra degrees of freedom in gauge-invariant theories. Since gauge-invariant Lagrangians are singular, Dirac's consistency formalism and Fadeev's extension are first reviewed. A clarification on the origin of primary constraints is given, and some of the open problems in singular Lagrangian theory are discussed. The criteria in choosing a gauge, i.e., attainability, maintainability and Poincare invariance are summarized and applied to various linear gauges. The effects of incomplete removal of all gauge freedom on the criteria for gauge conditions are described. A simple example in point mechanics that contains some of the features of gauge field theories is given. Finally, we describe a method of constructing gauge-invariant variables in various gauge field theories. For the Abelian theory, the gauge-invariant, transverse potential and Dirac's gauge-invariant fermion field was derived. For the non-Abelian case we introduce a local set of basis vectors and gauge transformations are interpreted as rotations of the basis vectors introduced. The analysis leads to the reformulation of local SU(2) field theory in terms of path-dependent U(1) x U(1) x U(1). However, the analysis fails to include the matter fields as of now
Formal models, languages and applications
Rangarajan, K; Mukund, M
2006-01-01
A collection of articles by leading experts in theoretical computer science, this volume commemorates the 75th birthday of Professor Rani Siromoney, one of the pioneers in the field in India. The articles span the vast range of areas that Professor Siromoney has worked in or influenced, including grammar systems, picture languages and new models of computation. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Finite Array Automata and Regular Array Grammars (150 KB). Contents: Finite Array Automata and Regular Array Grammars (A Atanasiu et al.); Hexagonal Contextual Array P Systems (K S Dersanambika et al.); Con
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)
1997-12-01
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.
Uncertainty in adaptive capacity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.
2005-01-01
The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)
43 CFR 30.235 - What will the judge's decision in a formal probate proceeding contain?
2010-10-01
....235 What will the judge's decision in a formal probate proceeding contain? The judge must decide the... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false What will the judge's decision in a formal... requirements of this section. (a) In all cases, the judge's decision must: (1) Include the name, birth date...
Choi, Woojae; Jacobs, Ronald L.
2011-01-01
While workplace learning includes formal and informal learning, the relationship between the two has been overlooked, because they have been viewed as separate entities. This study investigated the effects of formal learning, personal learning orientation, and supportive learning environment on informal learning among 203 middle managers in Korean…
The Law, Policy, and Politics of Formal Hypnosis in the Public Community College Classroom.
Sachs, Steven Mark
Information from printed sources, legal documents, and interviews with community college administrators formed the basis of an investigation of the legal, policy, and political implications of the use of formal hypnosis as an instructional augmentation in the community college classroom. Study findings included the following: (1) no formal policy…
Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul
2015-10-01
The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO_{2} concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.
Identification and communication of uncertainties of phenomenological models in PSA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.
2001-11-01
This report aims at presenting a view upon uncertainty analysis of phenomenological models with an emphasis on the identification and documentation of various types of uncertainties and assumptions in the modelling of the phenomena. In an uncertainty analysis, it is essential to include and document all unclear issues, in order to obtain a maximal coverage of unresolved issues. This holds independently on their nature or type of the issues. The classification of uncertainties is needed in the decomposition of the problem and it helps in the identification of means for uncertainty reduction. Further, an enhanced documentation serves to evaluate the applicability of the results to various risk-informed applications. (au)
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
2010-11-01
A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions
Economic uncertainty principle?
Alexander Harin
2006-01-01
The economic principle of (hidden) uncertainty is presented. New probability formulas are offered. Examples of solutions of three types of fundamental problems are reviewed.; Principe d'incertitude économique? Le principe économique d'incertitude (cachée) est présenté. De nouvelles formules de chances sont offertes. Les exemples de solutions des trois types de problèmes fondamentaux sont reconsidérés.
Citizen Candidates Under Uncertainty
Eguia, Jon X.
2005-01-01
In this paper we make two contributions to the growing literature on "citizen-candidate" models of representative democracy. First, we add uncertainty about the total vote count. We show that in a society with a large electorate, where the outcome of the election is uncertain and where winning candidates receive a large reward from holding office, there will be a two-candidate equilibrium and no equilibria with a single candidate. Second, we introduce a new concept of equilibrium, which we te...
Asymmetrical peer interaction and formal operational development: Dialogue dimensions analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stepanović-Ilić Ivana
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The main goal of the study is to define dialogue dimensions in order to describe the interaction within peer dyads and potentially connect them with formal operations development in the less competent participants. Its significance is related to rare investigations of this subject in the context of formal operations development and to practical implications regarding peer involvement in education process. The sample included 316 students aged 12 and 14. The research had an experimental design: pre-test, intervention and post-test. In the pre-test and the post-test phases students solved the formal operations test BLOT. According to the pre-test results, 47 dyads were formed where less and more competent students jointly solved tasks from BLOT. Their dialogues were coded by 14 dimensions operationalized for this purpose. Correlations between the dialogue dimensions indicate clearly distinguished positive and negative interaction patterns. There are no connections between dialogue dimensions and progress of less competent adolescents on BLOT in the entire sample, but several are found in the subsamples. Arguments exchange seems to be the most encouraging dialogue feature regarding formal operations development, particularly in older students. This confirms relevant research data and the expectations about peers’ constructive role in fostering cognitive development. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179018: Identification, measurement and development of cognitive and emotional competences important for a society oriented towards European integrations
Calibration Under Uncertainty.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy
2005-03-01
This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.
Participation under Uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Boudourides, Moses A.
2003-01-01
This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke
Uncertainty analysis techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.
1987-01-01
The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site
Deterministic uncertainty analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worley, B.A.
1987-12-01
This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs
Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.
1995-12-31
A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.
Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chojnacki, Eric
2002-01-01
After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory
LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lassahn, G.D.
1983-01-01
The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear-reactor-safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses
LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lassahn, G.D.
1983-01-01
The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear reactor safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses
Manktelow, Bradley N; Seaton, Sarah E; Evans, T Alun
2016-12-01
There is an increasing use of statistical methods, such as funnel plots, to identify poorly performing healthcare providers. Funnel plots comprise the construction of control limits around a benchmark and providers with outcomes falling outside the limits are investigated as potential outliers. The benchmark is usually estimated from observed data but uncertainty in this estimate is usually ignored when constructing control limits. In this paper, the use of funnel plots in the presence of uncertainty in the value of the benchmark is reviewed for outcomes from a Binomial distribution. Two methods to derive the control limits are shown: (i) prediction intervals; (ii) tolerance intervals Tolerance intervals formally include the uncertainty in the value of the benchmark while prediction intervals do not. The probability properties of 95% control limits derived using each method were investigated through hypothesised scenarios. Neither prediction intervals nor tolerance intervals produce funnel plot control limits that satisfy the nominal probability characteristics when there is uncertainty in the value of the benchmark. This is not necessarily to say that funnel plots have no role to play in healthcare, but that without the development of intervals satisfying the nominal probability characteristics they must be interpreted with care. © The Author(s) 2014.
Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.
1985-09-01
The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.
Development of Evaluation Code for MUF Uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Won, Byung Hee; Han, Bo Young; Shin, Hee Sung; Ahn, Seong-Kyu; Park, Geun-Il; Park, Se Hwan
2015-01-01
Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is the material balance evaluated by measured nuclear material in a Material Balance Area (MBA). Assuming perfect measurements and no diversion from a facility, one can expect a zero MUF. However, non-zero MUF is always occurred because of measurement uncertainty even though the facility is under normal operation condition. Furthermore, there are many measurements using different equipment at various Key Measurement Points (KMPs), and the MUF uncertainty is affected by errors of those measurements. Evaluating MUF uncertainty is essentially required to develop safeguards system including nuclear measurement system in pyroprocessing, which is being developed for reducing radioactive waste from spent fuel in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The evaluation code for analyzing MUF uncertainty has been developed and it was verified using sample problem from the IAEA reference. MUF uncertainty can be simply and quickly calculated by using this evaluation code which is made based on graphical user interface for user friendly. It is also expected that the code will make the sensitivity analysis on the MUF uncertainty for the various safeguards systems easy and more systematic. It is suitable for users who want to evaluate the conventional safeguards system as well as to develop a new system for developing facilities
Mitigating Provider Uncertainty in Service Provision Contracts
Smith, Chris; van Moorsel, Aad
Uncertainty is an inherent property of open, distributed and multiparty systems. The viability of the mutually beneficial relationships which motivate these systems relies on rational decision-making by each constituent party under uncertainty. Service provision in distributed systems is one such relationship. Uncertainty is experienced by the service provider in his ability to deliver a service with selected quality level guarantees due to inherent non-determinism, such as load fluctuations and hardware failures. Statistical estimators utilized to model this non-determinism introduce additional uncertainty through sampling error. Inability of the provider to accurately model and analyze uncertainty in the quality level guarantees can result in the formation of sub-optimal service provision contracts. Emblematic consequences include loss of revenue, inefficient resource utilization and erosion of reputation and consumer trust. We propose a utility model for contract-based service provision to provide a systematic approach to optimal service provision contract formation under uncertainty. Performance prediction methods to enable the derivation of statistical estimators for quality level are introduced, with analysis of their resultant accuracy and cost.
Sources of uncertainty in flood inundation maps
Bales, J.D.; Wagner, C.R.
2009-01-01
Flood inundation maps typically have been used to depict inundated areas for floods having specific exceedance levels. The uncertainty associated with the inundation boundaries is seldom quantified, in part, because all of the sources of uncertainty are not recognized and because data available to quantify uncertainty seldom are available. Sources of uncertainty discussed in this paper include hydrologic data used for hydraulic model development and validation, topographic data, and the hydraulic model. The assumption of steady flow, which typically is made to produce inundation maps, has less of an effect on predicted inundation at lower flows than for higher flows because more time typically is required to inundate areas at high flows than at low flows. Difficulties with establishing reasonable cross sections that do not intersect and that represent water-surface slopes in tributaries contribute additional uncertainties in the hydraulic modelling. As a result, uncertainty in the flood inundation polygons simulated with a one-dimensional model increases with distance from the main channel.
Development of Evaluation Code for MUF Uncertainty
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Won, Byung Hee; Han, Bo Young; Shin, Hee Sung; Ahn, Seong-Kyu; Park, Geun-Il; Park, Se Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2015-05-15
Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is the material balance evaluated by measured nuclear material in a Material Balance Area (MBA). Assuming perfect measurements and no diversion from a facility, one can expect a zero MUF. However, non-zero MUF is always occurred because of measurement uncertainty even though the facility is under normal operation condition. Furthermore, there are many measurements using different equipment at various Key Measurement Points (KMPs), and the MUF uncertainty is affected by errors of those measurements. Evaluating MUF uncertainty is essentially required to develop safeguards system including nuclear measurement system in pyroprocessing, which is being developed for reducing radioactive waste from spent fuel in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The evaluation code for analyzing MUF uncertainty has been developed and it was verified using sample problem from the IAEA reference. MUF uncertainty can be simply and quickly calculated by using this evaluation code which is made based on graphical user interface for user friendly. It is also expected that the code will make the sensitivity analysis on the MUF uncertainty for the various safeguards systems easy and more systematic. It is suitable for users who want to evaluate the conventional safeguards system as well as to develop a new system for developing facilities.
Conclusions on measurement uncertainty in microbiology.
Forster, Lynne I
2009-01-01
Since its first issue in 1999, testing laboratories wishing to comply with all the requirements of ISO/IEC 17025 have been collecting data for estimating uncertainty of measurement for quantitative determinations. In the microbiological field of testing, some debate has arisen as to whether uncertainty needs to be estimated for each method performed in the laboratory for each type of sample matrix tested. Queries also arise concerning the estimation of uncertainty when plate/membrane filter colony counts are below recommended method counting range limits. A selection of water samples (with low to high contamination) was tested in replicate with the associated uncertainty of measurement being estimated from the analytical results obtained. The analyses performed on the water samples included total coliforms, fecal coliforms, fecal streptococci by membrane filtration, and heterotrophic plate counts by the pour plate technique. For those samples where plate/membrane filter colony counts were > or =20, uncertainty estimates at a 95% confidence level were very similar for the methods, being estimated as 0.13, 0.14, 0.14, and 0.12, respectively. For those samples where plate/membrane filter colony counts were <20, estimated uncertainty values for each sample showed close agreement with published confidence limits established using a Poisson distribution approach.
Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.
Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J
2012-01-19
Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.
Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Veneziano, D.
1975-01-01
What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models
Uncertainties and severe-accident management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kastenberg, W.E.
1991-01-01
Severe-accident management can be defined as the use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. Together with risk management (e.g., changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-indepth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments have been completed, which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities, and can be categorized as (a) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency, (b) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures, (c) dominant threats that challenge safety functions, and (d) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. Severe-accident management strategies can be generically classified as (a) use of alternative resources, (b) use of alternative equipment, and (c) use of alternative actions. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These include (a) uncertainty in key phenomena, (b) uncertainty in operator behavior, (c) uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and (d) uncertainty in information availability (i.e., instrumentation). This paper focuses on phenomenological uncertainties associated with severe-accident management strategies
Fourier Series Formalization in ACL2(r
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cuong K. Chau
2015-09-01
Full Text Available We formalize some basic properties of Fourier series in the logic of ACL2(r, which is a variant of ACL2 that supports reasoning about the real and complex numbers by way of non-standard analysis. More specifically, we extend a framework for formally evaluating definite integrals of real-valued, continuous functions using the Second Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. Our extended framework is also applied to functions containing free arguments. Using this framework, we are able to prove the orthogonality relationships between trigonometric functions, which are the essential properties in Fourier series analysis. The sum rule for definite integrals of indexed sums is also formalized by applying the extended framework along with the First Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and the sum rule for differentiation. The Fourier coefficient formulas of periodic functions are then formalized from the orthogonality relations and the sum rule for integration. Consequently, the uniqueness of Fourier sums is a straightforward corollary. We also present our formalization of the sum rule for definite integrals of infinite series in ACL2(r. Part of this task is to prove the Dini Uniform Convergence Theorem and the continuity of a limit function under certain conditions. A key technique in our proofs of these theorems is to apply the overspill principle from non-standard analysis.
Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.
Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A
2011-05-01
In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
A Formal Methods Approach to the Analysis of Mode Confusion
Butler, Ricky W.; Miller, Steven P.; Potts, James N.; Carreno, Victor A.
2004-01-01
The goal of the new NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to reduce the civil aviation fatal accident rate by 80% in ten years and 90% in twenty years. This program is being driven by the accident data with a focus on the most recent history. Pilot error is the most commonly cited cause for fatal accidents (up to 70%) and obviously must be given major consideration in this program. While the greatest source of pilot error is the loss of situation awareness , mode confusion is increasingly becoming a major contributor as well. The January 30, 1995 issue of Aviation Week lists 184 incidents and accidents involving mode awareness including the Bangalore A320 crash 2/14/90, the Strasbourg A320 crash 1/20/92, the Mulhouse-Habsheim A320 crash 6/26/88, and the Toulouse A330 crash 6/30/94. These incidents and accidents reveal that pilots sometimes become confused about what the cockpit automation is doing. Consequently, human factors research is an obvious investment area. However, even a cursory look at the accident data reveals that the mode confusion problem is much deeper than just training deficiencies and a lack of human-oriented design. This is readily acknowledged by human factors experts. It seems that further progress in human factors must come through a deeper scrutiny of the internals of the automation. It is in this arena that formal methods can contribute. Formal methods refers to the use of techniques from logic and discrete mathematics in the specification, design, and verification of computer systems, both hardware and software. The fundamental goal of formal methods is to capture requirements, designs and implementations in a mathematically based model that can be analyzed in a rigorous manner. Research in formal methods is aimed at automating this analysis as much as possible. By capturing the internal behavior of a flight deck in a rigorous and detailed formal model, the dark corners of a design can be analyzed. This paper will explore how formal
Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?
Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert
2016-01-01
Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if
Stationary solution of a time dependent density matrix formalism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tohyama, Mitsuru
1994-01-01
A stationary solution of a time-dependent density-matrix formalism, which is an extension of the time-dependent Hartree-Fock theory to include the effects of two-body correlations, is obtained for the Lipkin model hamiltonian, using an adiabatic treatment of the two-body interaction. It is found that the obtained result is a reasonable approximation for the exact solution of the model. (author)
Enhancing Formal Modelling Tool Support with Increased Automation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lausdahl, Kenneth
Progress report for the qualification exam report for PhD Student Kenneth Lausdahl. Initial work on enhancing tool support for the formal method VDM and the concept of unifying a abstract syntax tree with the ability for isolated extensions is described. The tool support includes a connection to ...... to UML and a test automation principle based on traces written as a kind of regular expressions....
Structuring Formal Requirements Specifications for Reuse and Product Families
Heimdahl, Mats P. E.
2001-01-01
In this project we have investigated how formal specifications should be structured to allow for requirements reuse, product family engineering, and ease of requirements change, The contributions of this work include (1) a requirements specification methodology specifically targeted for critical avionics applications, (2) guidelines for how to structure state-based specifications to facilitate ease of change and reuse, and (3) examples from the avionics domain demonstrating the proposed approach.
A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leung, Wanda; Noble, Bram; Gunn, Jill; Jaeger, Jochen A.G.
2015-01-01
This paper examines uncertainty research in Impact Assessment (IA) and the focus of attention of the IA scholarly literature. We do so by first exploring ‘outside’ the IA literature, identifying three main themes of uncertainty research, and then apply these themes to examine the focus of scholarly research on uncertainty ‘inside’ IA. Based on a search of the database Scopus, we identified 134 journal papers published between 1970 and 2013 that address uncertainty in IA, 75% of which were published since 2005. We found that 90% of IA research addressing uncertainty focused on uncertainty in the practice of IA, including uncertainty in impact predictions, models and managing environmental impacts. Notwithstanding early guidance on uncertainty treatment in IA from the 1980s, we found no common, underlying conceptual framework that was guiding research on uncertainty in IA practice. Considerably less attention, only 9% of papers, focused on uncertainty communication, disclosure and decision-making under uncertain conditions, the majority of which focused on the need to disclose uncertainties as opposed to providing guidance on how to do so and effectively use that information to inform decisions. Finally, research focused on theory building for explaining human behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance constituted only 1% of the IA published literature. We suggest the need for further conceptual framework development for researchers focused on identifying and addressing uncertainty in IA practice; the need for guidance on how best to communicate uncertainties in practice, versus criticizing practitioners for not doing so; research that explores how best to interpret and use disclosures about uncertainty when making decisions about project approvals, and the implications of doing so; and academic theory building and exploring the utility of existing theories to better understand and explain uncertainty avoidance behavior in IA. - Highlights: • We
A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Leung, Wanda, E-mail: wanda.leung@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A5 (Canada); Noble, Bram, E-mail: b.noble@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A5 (Canada); Gunn, Jill, E-mail: jill.gunn@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A5 (Canada); Jaeger, Jochen A.G., E-mail: jochen.jaeger@concordia.ca [Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve W., Suite 1255, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8 (Canada); Loyola Sustainability Research Centre, Concordia University, 7141 Sherbrooke W., AD-502, Montreal, Quebec H4B 1R6 (Canada)
2015-01-15
This paper examines uncertainty research in Impact Assessment (IA) and the focus of attention of the IA scholarly literature. We do so by first exploring ‘outside’ the IA literature, identifying three main themes of uncertainty research, and then apply these themes to examine the focus of scholarly research on uncertainty ‘inside’ IA. Based on a search of the database Scopus, we identified 134 journal papers published between 1970 and 2013 that address uncertainty in IA, 75% of which were published since 2005. We found that 90% of IA research addressing uncertainty focused on uncertainty in the practice of IA, including uncertainty in impact predictions, models and managing environmental impacts. Notwithstanding early guidance on uncertainty treatment in IA from the 1980s, we found no common, underlying conceptual framework that was guiding research on uncertainty in IA practice. Considerably less attention, only 9% of papers, focused on uncertainty communication, disclosure and decision-making under uncertain conditions, the majority of which focused on the need to disclose uncertainties as opposed to providing guidance on how to do so and effectively use that information to inform decisions. Finally, research focused on theory building for explaining human behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance constituted only 1% of the IA published literature. We suggest the need for further conceptual framework development for researchers focused on identifying and addressing uncertainty in IA practice; the need for guidance on how best to communicate uncertainties in practice, versus criticizing practitioners for not doing so; research that explores how best to interpret and use disclosures about uncertainty when making decisions about project approvals, and the implications of doing so; and academic theory building and exploring the utility of existing theories to better understand and explain uncertainty avoidance behavior in IA. - Highlights: • We
A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Campos, E [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sisterson, Douglas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
2016-12-01
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed. Note that some of the instrument observations require mathematical algorithms (retrievals) to convert a measured engineering variable into a useful geophysical measurement. While those types of retrieval measurements are identified, this study does not address particular methods for retrieval uncertainty. As well, the ARM Facility also provides engineered data products, or value-added products (VAPs), based on multiple instrument measurements. This study does not include uncertainty estimates for those data products. We propose here that a total measurement uncertainty should be calculated as a function of the instrument uncertainty (calibration factors), the field uncertainty (environmental factors), and the retrieval uncertainty (algorithm factors). The study will not expand on methods for computing these uncertainties. Instead, it will focus on the practical identification, characterization, and inventory of the measurement uncertainties already available in the ARM community through the ARM instrument mentors and their ARM instrument handbooks. As a result, this study will address the first steps towards reporting ARM measurement uncertainty
Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Niebert, Peter
This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the First International Workshop on Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems, FORMATS 2003, held in Marseille, France in September 2003. The 19 revised full papers presented together with an invited paper and the abstracts of ...... systems, discrete time systems, timed languages, and real-time operating systems....... of two invited talks were carefully selected from 36 submissions during two rounds of reviewing and improvement. All current aspects of formal method for modeling and analyzing timed systems are addressed; among the timed systems dealt with are timed automata, timed Petri nets, max-plus algebras, real-time......This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the First International Workshop on Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems, FORMATS 2003, held in Marseille, France in September 2003. The 19 revised full papers presented together with an invited paper and the abstracts...
Formal Analysis of Graphical Security Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Aslanyan, Zaruhi
, software components and human actors interacting with each other to form so-called socio-technical systems. The importance of socio-technical systems to modern societies requires verifying their security properties formally, while their inherent complexity makes manual analyses impracticable. Graphical...... models for security offer an unrivalled opportunity to describe socio-technical systems, for they allow to represent different aspects like human behaviour, computation and physical phenomena in an abstract yet uniform manner. Moreover, these models can be assigned a formal semantics, thereby allowing...... formal verification of their properties. Finally, their appealing graphical notations enable to communicate security concerns in an understandable way also to non-experts, often in charge of the decision making. This dissertation argues that automated techniques can be developed on graphical security...
Formal verification of industrial control systems
CERN. Geneva
2015-01-01
Verification of critical software is a high priority but a challenging task for industrial control systems. For many kinds of problems, testing is not an efficient method. Formal methods, such as model checking appears to be an appropriate complementary method. However, it is not common to use model checking in industry yet, as this method needs typically formal methods expertise and huge computing power. In the EN-ICE-PLC section, we are working on a [methodology][1] and a tool ([PLCverif][2]) to overcome these challenges and to integrate formal verification in the development process of our PLC-based control systems. [1]: http://cern.ch/project-plc-formalmethods [2]: http://cern.ch/plcverif
Formalizing Darwinism and inclusive fitness theory.
Grafen, Alan
2009-11-12
Inclusive fitness maximization is a basic building block for biological contributions to any theory of the evolution of society. There is a view in mathematical population genetics that nothing is caused to be maximized in the process of natural selection, but this is explained as arising from a misunderstanding about the meaning of fitness maximization. Current theoretical work on inclusive fitness is discussed, with emphasis on the author's 'formal Darwinism project'. Generally, favourable conclusions are drawn about the validity of assuming fitness maximization, but the need for continuing work is emphasized, along with the possibility that substantive exceptions may be uncovered. The formal Darwinism project aims more ambitiously to represent in a formal mathematical framework the central point of Darwin's Origin of Species, that the mechanical processes of inheritance and reproduction can give rise to the appearance of design, and it is a fitting ambition in Darwin's bicentenary year to capture his most profound discovery in the lingua franca of science.
First order formalism for quantum gravity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gleiser, M.; Holman, R.; Neto, N.P.
1987-05-01
We develop a first order formalism for the quantization of gravity. We take as canonical variables both the induced metric and the extrinsic curvature of the (d - 1) -dimensional hypersurfaces obtained by the foliation of the d - dimensional spacetime. After solving the constraint algebra we use the Dirac formalism to quantize the theory and obtain a new representation for the Wheeler-DeWitt equation, defined in the functional space of the extrinsic curvature. We also show how to obtain several different representations of the Wheeler-DeWitt equation by considering actions differing by a total divergence. In particular, the intrinsic and extrinsic time approaches appear in a natural way, as do equivalent representations obtained by functional Fourier transforms of appropriate variables. We conclude with some remarks about the construction of the Hilbert space within the first order formalism. 10 refs
Enhancing System Realisation in Formal Model Development
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tran-Jørgensen, Peter Würtz Vinther
and requirements of software extensions targeting Overture. The tools developed in this PhD project have successfully supported three case studies from externally funded projects. The feedback received from the case study work has further helped improve the code generation infrastructure and the tools built using...... implementation. One way to realise the system’s software is by automatically generating it from the formal specification – a technique referred to as code generation. However, in general it is difficult to make guarantees about the correctness of the generated code – especially while requiring automation...... of the steps involved in realising the formal specification. This PhD dissertation investigates ways to improve the automation of the steps involved in realising and validating a system based on a formal specification. The approach aims to develop properly designed software tools which support the integration...
Towards Formal Verification of a Separation Microkernel
Butterfield, Andrew; Sanan, David; Hinchey, Mike
2013-08-01
The best approach to verifying an IMA separation kernel is to use a (fixed) time-space partitioning kernel with a multiple independent levels of separation (MILS) architecture. We describe an activity that explores the cost and feasibility of doing a formal verification of such a kernel to the Common Criteria (CC) levels mandated by the Separation Kernel Protection Profile (SKPP). We are developing a Reference Specification of such a kernel, and are using higher-order logic (HOL) to construct formal models of this specification and key separation properties. We then plan to do a dry run of part of a formal proof of those properties using the Isabelle/HOL theorem prover.
Rapidly converging path integral formalism. Pt. 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bender, I.; Gromes, D.; Marquard, U.
1990-01-01
The action to be used in the path integral formalism is expanded in a systematic way in powers of the time spacing ε in order to optimize the convergence to the continuum limit. This modifies and extends the usual formalism in a transparent way. The path integral approximation to the Green function obtained by this method approaches the continuum Green function with a higher power of ε than the usual one. The general theoretical derivations are exemplified analytically for the harmonic oscillator and by Monte Carlo methods for the anharmonic oscillator. We also show how curvilinear coordinates and curved spaces can naturally be treated within this formalism. Work on field theory is in progress. (orig.)
Automated Formal Verification for PLC Control Systems
Fernández Adiego, Borja
2014-01-01
Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) are widely used devices used in industrial control systems. Ensuring that the PLC software is compliant with its specification is a challenging task. Formal verification has become a recommended practice to ensure the correctness of the safety-critical software. However, these techniques are still not widely applied in industry due to the complexity of building formal models, which represent the system and the formalization of requirement specifications. We propose a general methodology to perform automated model checking of complex properties expressed in temporal logics (e.g. CTL, LTL) on PLC programs. This methodology is based on an Intermediate Model (IM), meant to transform PLC programs written in any of the languages described in the IEC 61131-3 standard (ST, IL, etc.) to different modeling languages of verification tools. This approach has been applied to CERN PLC programs validating the methodology.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.
2006-01-01
A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty...... surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset...
Commonplaces and social uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lassen, Inger
2008-01-01
This article explores the concept of uncertainty in four focus group discussions about genetically modified food. In the discussions, members of the general public interact with food biotechnology scientists while negotiating their attitudes towards genetic engineering. Their discussions offer...... an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...
Kadane, Joseph B
2011-01-01
An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics -- the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discus
Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Angel GARRIDO
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.
A formal model of interpersonal inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael eMoutoussis
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference – a general framework for decision-making – can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: 1. Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to 'mentalising' in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. 2. We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g. self-serving biases can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. 3. Mentalising naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one’s own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modelling intersubject variability in mentalising during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalising is distorted.
User Interface Technology for Formal Specification Development
Lowry, Michael; Philpot, Andrew; Pressburger, Thomas; Underwood, Ian; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)
1994-01-01
Formal specification development and modification are an essential component of the knowledge-based software life cycle. User interface technology is needed to empower end-users to create their own formal specifications. This paper describes the advanced user interface for AMPHION1 a knowledge-based software engineering system that targets scientific subroutine libraries. AMPHION is a generic, domain-independent architecture that is specialized to an application domain through a declarative domain theory. Formal specification development and reuse is made accessible to end-users through an intuitive graphical interface that provides semantic guidance in creating diagrams denoting formal specifications in an application domain. The diagrams also serve to document the specifications. Automatic deductive program synthesis ensures that end-user specifications are correctly implemented. The tables that drive AMPHION's user interface are automatically compiled from a domain theory; portions of the interface can be customized by the end-user. The user interface facilitates formal specification development by hiding syntactic details, such as logical notation. It also turns some of the barriers for end-user specification development associated with strongly typed formal languages into active sources of guidance, without restricting advanced users. The interface is especially suited for specification modification. AMPHION has been applied to the domain of solar system kinematics through the development of a declarative domain theory. Testing over six months with planetary scientists indicates that AMPHION's interactive specification acquisition paradigm enables users to develop, modify, and reuse specifications at least an order of magnitude more rapidly than manual program development.
Use of probability tables for propagating uncertainties in neutronics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coste-Delclaux, M.; Diop, C.M.; Lahaye, S.
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Moment-based probability table formalism is described. • Representation by probability tables of any uncertainty distribution is established. • Multiband equations for two kinds of uncertainty propagation problems are solved. • Numerical examples are provided and validated against Monte Carlo simulations. - Abstract: Probability tables are a generic tool that allows representing any random variable whose probability density function is known. In the field of nuclear reactor physics, this tool is currently used to represent the variation of cross-sections versus energy (neutron transport codes TRIPOLI4®, MCNP, APOLLO2, APOLLO3®, ECCO/ERANOS…). In the present article we show how we can propagate uncertainties, thanks to a probability table representation, through two simple physical problems: an eigenvalue problem (neutron multiplication factor) and a depletion problem.
Analysis of Uncertainty in Dynamic Processes Development of Banks Functioning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aleksei V. Korovyakovskii
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The paper offers the approach to measure of uncertainty estimation in dynamic processes of banks functioning, using statistic data of different banking operations indicators. To calculate measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of banks functioning the phase images of relevant sets of statistic data are considered. Besides, it is shown that the form of phase image of the studied sets of statistic data can act as a basis of measure of uncertainty estimation in dynamic processes of banks functioning. The set of analytical characteristics are offered to formalize the form of phase image definition of the studied sets of statistic data. It is shown that the offered analytical characteristics consider inequality of changes in values of the studied sets of statistic data, which is one of the ways of uncertainty display in dynamic processes development. The invariant estimates of measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of banks functioning, considering significant changes in absolute values of the same indicators for different banks were obtained. The examples of calculation of measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of concrete banks functioning were cited.
Statistically based uncertainty assessments in nuclear risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Spencer, F.W.; Diegert, K.V.; Easterling, R.G.
1987-01-01
Over the last decade, the problems of estimation and uncertainty assessment in probabilistics risk assessment (PRAs) have been addressed in a variety of NRC and industry-sponsored projects. These problems have received attention because of a recognition that major uncertainties in risk estimation exist, which can be reduced by collecting more and better data and other information, and because of a recognition that better methods for assessing these uncertainties are needed. In particular, a clear understanding of the nature and magnitude of various sources of uncertainty is needed to facilitate descision-making on possible plant changes and research options. Recent PRAs have employed methods of probability propagation, sometimes involving the use of Bayes Theorem, and intended to formalize the use of ''engineering judgment'' or ''expert opinion.'' All sources, or feelings, of uncertainty are expressed probabilistically, so that uncertainty analysis becomes simply a matter of probability propagation. Alternatives to forcing a probabilistic framework at all stages of a PRA are a major concern in this paper, however
Infinitesimal deformations of a formal symplectic groupoid
Karabegov, Alexander
2010-01-01
Given a formal symplectic groupoid $G$ over a Poisson manifold $(M, \\pi_0)$, we define a new object, an infinitesimal deformation of $G$, which can be thought of as a formal symplectic groupoid over the manifold $M$ equipped with an infinitesimal deformation $\\pi_0 + \\epsilon \\pi_1$ of the Poisson bivector field $\\pi_0$. The source and target mappings of a deformation of $G$ are deformations of the source and target mappings of $G$. To any pair of natural star products $(\\ast, \\tilde\\ast)$ ha...
Keldysh formalism for multiple parallel worlds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ansari, M.; Nazarov, Y. V.
2016-01-01
We present a compact and self-contained review of the recently developed Keldysh formalism for multiple parallel worlds. The formalism has been applied to consistent quantum evaluation of the flows of informational quantities, in particular, to the evaluation of Renyi and Shannon entropy flows. We start with the formulation of the standard and extended Keldysh techniques in a single world in a form convenient for our presentation. We explain the use of Keldysh contours encompassing multiple parallel worlds. In the end, we briefly summarize the concrete results obtained with the method.
Keldysh formalism for multiple parallel worlds
Ansari, M.; Nazarov, Y. V.
2016-03-01
We present a compact and self-contained review of the recently developed Keldysh formalism for multiple parallel worlds. The formalism has been applied to consistent quantum evaluation of the flows of informational quantities, in particular, to the evaluation of Renyi and Shannon entropy flows. We start with the formulation of the standard and extended Keldysh techniques in a single world in a form convenient for our presentation. We explain the use of Keldysh contours encompassing multiple parallel worlds. In the end, we briefly summarize the concrete results obtained with the method.
Formal Concept Analysis for Information Retrieval
Qadi, Abderrahim El; Aboutajedine, Driss; Ennouary, Yassine
2010-01-01
In this paper we describe a mechanism to improve Information Retrieval (IR) on the web. The method is based on Formal Concepts Analysis (FCA) that it is makes semantical relations during the queries, and allows a reorganizing, in the shape of a lattice of concepts, the answers provided by a search engine. We proposed for the IR an incremental algorithm based on Galois lattice. This algorithm allows a formal clustering of the data sources, and the results which it turns over are classified by ...
A formalization of the flutter shutter
Tendero, Yohann; Rougé, Bernard; Morel, Jean-Michel
2012-09-01
Acquiring good quality images of moving objects by a digital camera remains a valid question. If the velocity of the photographed object is not known, it is virtually impossible to tune an optimal exposure time. For this reason the recent Agrawal et al. flutter shutter apparatus has generated much interest. In this communication, we propose a mathematical formalization of a general flutter shutter method, also permitting non-binary shutter sequences. Thanks to this formalization, the question of the optimal flutter shutter code can be defined and solved. The method gives analytic formulas for the best attainable SNR for the restored image. It also gives a way to compute optimal flutter shutter codes.
Formal Institutions and Subjective Well-Being
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bjørnskov, Christian; Dreher, Axel; Fischer, Justina
A long tradition in economics explores the association between the quality of formal institutions and economic performance. The literature on the relationship between such institutions and happiness is, however, rather limited. In this paper, we revisit the findings from recent cross-country stud......A long tradition in economics explores the association between the quality of formal institutions and economic performance. The literature on the relationship between such institutions and happiness is, however, rather limited. In this paper, we revisit the findings from recent cross...
Improved formalism for precision Higgs coupling fits
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barklow, Tim; Peskin, Michael E. [Stanford Univ., Menlo Park, CA (United States). Stanford Linear Accelerator Center; Fujii, Keisuke; Ogawa, Tomohisa [High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Jung, Sunghoon [Stanford Univ., Menlo Park, CA (United States). Stanford Linear Accelerator Center; Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Karl, Robert; List, Jenny [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Tian, Junping [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). International Center for Elementary Particle Physics (ICEPP)
2017-08-15
Future e{sup +}e{sup -} colliders give the promise of model-independent determinations of the couplings of the Higgs boson. In this paper, we present an improved formalism for extracting Higgs boson couplings from e{sup +}e{sup -} data, based on the Effective Field Theory description of corrections to the Standard Model. We apply this formalism to give projections of Higgs coupling accuracies for stages of the International Linear Collider and for other proposed e{sup +}e{sup -} colliders.
A Mathematical Account of the NEGF Formalism
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cornean, Decebal Horia; Moldoveanu, Valeriu; Pillet, Claude-Alain
2018-01-01
The main goal of this paper is to put on solid mathematical grounds the so-called non-equilibrium Green’s function transport formalism for open systems. In particular, we derive the Jauho–Meir–Wingreen formula for the time-dependent current through an interacting sample coupled to non-interacting......The main goal of this paper is to put on solid mathematical grounds the so-called non-equilibrium Green’s function transport formalism for open systems. In particular, we derive the Jauho–Meir–Wingreen formula for the time-dependent current through an interacting sample coupled to non...
Towards formalization of inspection using petrinets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Javed, M.; Naeem, M.; Bahadur, F.; Wahab, A.
2014-01-01
Achieving better quality software has always been a challenge for software developers. Inspection is one of the most efficient techniques, which ensure the quality of software during its development. To the best of our knowledge, current inspection techniques are not realized by any formal approach. In this paper, we propose an inspection technique, which is not only backed by the formal mathematical semantics of Petri nets, but also supports inspecting concurrent processes. We also use a case study of an agent based distributed processing system to demonstrate the inspection of concurrent processes. (author)
Keldysh formalism for multiple parallel worlds
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ansari, M.; Nazarov, Y. V., E-mail: y.v.nazarov@tudelft.nl [Delft University of Technology, Kavli Institute of Nanoscience (Netherlands)
2016-03-15
We present a compact and self-contained review of the recently developed Keldysh formalism for multiple parallel worlds. The formalism has been applied to consistent quantum evaluation of the flows of informational quantities, in particular, to the evaluation of Renyi and Shannon entropy flows. We start with the formulation of the standard and extended Keldysh techniques in a single world in a form convenient for our presentation. We explain the use of Keldysh contours encompassing multiple parallel worlds. In the end, we briefly summarize the concrete results obtained with the method.
Tignanelli, H.
Se comentan en esta comunicación, las principales contribuciones realizadas en el campo de la educación en astronomía en los niveles primario, secundario y terciario, como punto de partida para la discusión de la actual inserción de los contenidos astronómicos en los nuevos contenidos curriculares de la EGB - Educación General Básica- y Polimodal, de la Reforma Educativa. En particular, se discuten los alcances de la educación formal y no formal, su importancia para la capacitación de profesores y maestros, y perspectivas a futuro.
Gutiérrez-Santiuste, Elba; Gámiz-Sánchez, Vanesa-M.; Gutiérrez-Pérez, Jose
2015-01-01
The study presents a comparative analysis of two virtual learning formats: one non-formal through a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) and the other formal through b-learning. We compare the communication barriers and the satisfaction perceived by the students (N = 249) by developing a qualitative analysis using semi-structured questionnaires and…
Augmenting Reality and Formality of Informal and Non-Formal Settings to Enhance Blended Learning
Pérez-Sanagustin, Mar; Hernández-Leo, Davinia; Santos, Patricia; Kloos, Carlos Delgado; Blat, Josep
2014-01-01
Visits to museums and city tours have been part of higher and secondary education curriculum activities for many years. However these activities are typically considered "less formal" when compared to those carried out in the classroom, mainly because they take place in informal or non-formal settings. Augmented Reality (AR) technologies…
Cameron, Roslyn; Harrison, Jennifer L.
2012-01-01
Definitions, differences and relationships between formal, non-formal and informal learning have long been contentious. There has been a significant change in language and reference from adult education to what amounts to forms of learning categorised by their modes of facilitation. Nonetheless, there is currently a renewed interest in the…
Radovic, Slaviša; Passey, Don
2016-01-01
The aim of this paper is to explore further an under-developed area--how drivers of curriculum, pedagogy and assessment conceptions and practices shape the creation and uses of technologically based resources to support mathematics learning across informal, non-formal and formal learning environments. The paper considers: the importance of…
Lending Policies of Informal, Formal, and Semi-formal Lenders: Evidence from Vietnam
Lensink, B.W.; Pham, T.T.T.
2007-01-01
This paper compares lending policies of formal, informal and semiformal lenders with respect to household lending in Vietnam. The analysis suggests that the probability of using formal or semiformal credit increases if borrowers provide collateral, a guarantor and/or borrow for business-related
Investment, regulation, and uncertainty
Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose
2014-01-01
As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases. This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745
Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties
Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren
2013-01-01
Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sabouri, Pouya
2013-01-01
This thesis presents a comprehensive study of sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for reactor performance parameters (e.g. the k-effective) to the base nuclear data from which they are computed. The analysis starts at the fundamental step, the Evaluated Nuclear Data File and the uncertainties inherently associated with the data they contain, available in the form of variance/covariance matrices. We show that when a methodical and consistent computation of sensitivity is performed, conventional deterministic formalisms can be sufficient to propagate nuclear data uncertainties with the level of accuracy obtained by the most advanced tools, such as state-of-the-art Monte Carlo codes. By applying our developed methodology to three exercises proposed by the OECD (Uncertainty Analysis for Criticality Safety Assessment Benchmarks), we provide insights of the underlying physical phenomena associated with the used formalisms. (author)
Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.
Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K
2017-12-01
Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.
Oil price uncertainty in Canada
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)
2009-11-15
Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)
Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.
2011-01-01
In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.
A Survey of Formal Methods for Intelligent Swarms
Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James; Hinchey, Mike; Rouff, Chrustopher A.
2004-01-01
cutting edge in system correctness, and requires higher levels of assurance than other (traditional) missions that use a single or small number of spacecraft that are deterministic in nature and have near continuous communication access. One of the highest possible levels of assurance comes from the application of formal methods. Formal methods are mathematics-based tools and techniques for specifying and verifying (software and hardware) systems. They are particularly useful for specifying complex parallel systems, such as exemplified by the ANTS mission, where the entire system is difficult for a single person to fully understand, a problem that is multiplied with multiple developers. Once written, a formal specification can be used to prove properties of a system (e.g., the underlying system will go from one state to another or not into a specific state) and check for particular types of errors (e.g., race or livelock conditions). A formal specification can also be used as input to a model checker for further validation. This report gives the results of a survey of formal methods techniques for verification and validation of space missions that use swarm technology. Multiple formal methods were evaluated to determine their effectiveness in modeling and assuring the behavior of swarms of spacecraft using the ANTS mission as an example system. This report is the first result of the project to determine formal approaches that are promising for formally specifying swarm-based systems. From this survey, the most promising approaches were selected and are discussed relative to their possible application to the ANTS mission. Future work will include the application of an integrated approach, based on the selected approaches identified in this report, to the formal specification of the ANTS mission.
Estimating Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Uncertainty
Amante, C.; Mesick, S.
2017-12-01
Integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) are representations of the Earth's solid surface and are fundamental to the modeling of coastal processes, including tsunami, storm surge, and sea-level rise inundation. Deviations in elevation values from the actual seabed or land surface constitute errors in DEMs, which originate from numerous sources, including: (i) the source elevation measurements (e.g., multibeam sonar, lidar), (ii) the interpolative gridding technique (e.g., spline, kriging) used to estimate elevations in areas unconstrained by source measurements, and (iii) the datum transformation used to convert bathymetric and topographic data to common vertical reference systems. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the errors from these sources are typically unknown, and the lack of knowledge regarding these errors represents the vertical uncertainty in the DEM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has developed DEMs for more than 200 coastal communities. This study presents a methodology developed at NOAA NCEI to derive accompanying uncertainty surfaces that estimate DEM errors at the individual cell-level. The development of high-resolution (1/9th arc-second), integrated bathymetric-topographic DEMs along the southwest coast of Florida serves as the case study for deriving uncertainty surfaces. The estimated uncertainty can then be propagated into the modeling of coastal processes that utilize DEMs. Incorporating the uncertainty produces more reliable modeling results, and in turn, better-informed coastal management decisions.
Uncertainty of fast biological radiation dose assessment for emergency response scenarios.
Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Higueras, Manuel; Puig, Pedro; Einbeck, Jochen; Samaga, Daniel; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Barrios, Lleonard; Brzozowska, Beata; Fattibene, Paola; Gregoire, Eric; Jaworska, Alicja; Lloyd, David; Oestreicher, Ursula; Romm, Horst; Rothkamm, Kai; Roy, Laurence; Sommer, Sylwester; Terzoudi, Georgia; Thierens, Hubert; Trompier, Francois; Vral, Anne; Woda, Clemens
2017-01-01
Reliable dose estimation is an important factor in appropriate dosimetric triage categorization of exposed individuals to support radiation emergency response. Following work done under the EU FP7 MULTIBIODOSE and RENEB projects, formal methods for defining uncertainties on biological dose estimates are compared using simulated and real data from recent exercises. The results demonstrate that a Bayesian method of uncertainty assessment is the most appropriate, even in the absence of detailed prior information. The relative accuracy and relevance of techniques for calculating uncertainty and combining assay results to produce single dose and uncertainty estimates is further discussed. Finally, it is demonstrated that whatever uncertainty estimation method is employed, ignoring the uncertainty on fast dose assessments can have an important impact on rapid biodosimetric categorization.
Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM
2010-09-30
We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the
Understanding Climate Uncertainty with an Ocean Focus
Tokmakian, R. T.
2009-12-01
Uncertainty in climate simulations arises from various aspects of the end-to-end process of modeling the Earth’s climate. First, there is uncertainty from the structure of the climate model components (e.g. ocean/ice/atmosphere). Even the most complex models are deficient, not only in the complexity of the processes they represent, but in which processes are included in a particular model. Next, uncertainties arise from the inherent error in the initial and boundary conditions of a simulation. Initial conditions are the state of the weather or climate at the beginning of the simulation and other such things, and typically come from observations. Finally, there is the uncertainty associated with the values of parameters in the model. These parameters may represent physical constants or effects, such as ocean mixing, or non-physical aspects of modeling and computation. The uncertainty in these input parameters propagates through the non-linear model to give uncertainty in the outputs. The models in 2020 will no doubt be better than today’s models, but they will still be imperfect, and development of uncertainty analysis technology is a critical aspect of understanding model realism and prediction capability. Smith [2002] and Cox and Stephenson [2007] discuss the need for methods to quantify the uncertainties within complicated systems so that limitations or weaknesses of the climate model can be understood. In making climate predictions, we need to have available both the most reliable model or simulation and a methods to quantify the reliability of a simulation. If quantitative uncertainty questions of the internal model dynamics are to be answered with complex simulations such as AOGCMs, then the only known path forward is based on model ensembles that characterize behavior with alternative parameter settings [e.g. Rougier, 2007]. The relevance and feasibility of using "Statistical Analysis of Computer Code Output" (SACCO) methods for examining uncertainty in
Incremental guideline formalization with tool support
Serban, Radu; Puig-Centelles, Anna; ten Teije, Annette
2006-01-01
Guideline formalization is recognized as an important component in improving computerized guidelines, which in turn leads to better informedness, lower inter-practician variability and, ultimately, to higher quality healthcare. By means of a modeling exercise, we investigate the role of guideline
Maintaining formal models of living guidelines efficiently
Seyfang, Andreas; Martínez-Salvador, Begoña; Serban, Radu; Wittenberg, Jolanda; Miksch, Silvia; Marcos, Mar; Ten Teije, Annette; Rosenbrand, Kitty C J G M
2007-01-01
Translating clinical guidelines into formal models is beneficial in many ways, but expensive. The progress in medical knowledge requires clinical guidelines to be updated at relatively short intervals, leading to the term living guideline. This causes potentially expensive, frequent updates of the
A New Formalism for Relational Algebra
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schwartzbach, Michael Ignatieff; Larsen, Kim Skak; Schmidt, Erik Meineche
1992-01-01
We present a new formalism for relational algebra, the FC language, which is based on a novel factorization of relations. The acronym stands for factorize and combine. A pure version of this language is equivalent to relational algebra in the sense that semantics preserving translations exist...
14 CFR 201.1 - Formal requirements.
2010-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Formal requirements. 201.1 Section 201.1 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) ECONOMIC... papers. (b) Any person desiring to provide air transportation as a commuter air carrier must comply with...
Informal Science Learning in the Formal Classroom
Walsh, Lori; Straits, William
2014-01-01
In this article the authors share advice from the viewpoints of both a formal and informal educator that will help teachers identify the right Informal Science Institutions (ISIs)--institutions that specialize in learning that occurs outside of the school setting--to maximize their students' learning and use informal education to their…
Formal verification of algorithms for critical systems
Rushby, John M.; Von Henke, Friedrich
1993-01-01
We describe our experience with formal, machine-checked verification of algorithms for critical applications, concentrating on a Byzantine fault-tolerant algorithm for synchronizing the clocks in the replicated computers of a digital flight control system. First, we explain the problems encountered in unsynchronized systems and the necessity, and criticality, of fault-tolerant synchronization. We give an overview of one such algorithm, and of the arguments for its correctness. Next, we describe a verification of the algorithm that we performed using our EHDM system for formal specification and verification. We indicate the errors we found in the published analysis of the algorithm, and other benefits that we derived from the verification. Based on our experience, we derive some key requirements for a formal specification and verification system adequate to the task of verifying algorithms of the type considered. Finally, we summarize our conclusions regarding the benefits of formal verification in this domain, and the capabilities required of verification systems in order to realize those benefits.
Protocol design and implementation using formal methods
van Sinderen, Marten J.; Ferreira Pires, Luis; Pires, L.F.; Vissers, C.A.
1992-01-01
This paper reports on a number of formal methods that support correct protocol design and implementation. These methods are placed in the framework of a design methodology for distributed systems that was studied and developed within the ESPRIT II Lotosphere project (2304). The paper focuses on
Educational attainment, formal employment and contraceptives ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Based on this, the study examines educational attainment, formal employment and contraceptives practices among working women in Lagos State University. Survey design was adopted for the study. Using Stratified and simple random sampling techniques, quantitative data was gathered through the administration of ...
A Formal Model of Identity Mixer
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Camenisch, Jan; Mödersheim, Sebastian Alexander; Sommer, Dieter
2010-01-01
Identity Mixer is an anonymous credential system developed at IBM that allows users for instance to prove that they are over 18 years old without revealing their name or birthdate. This privacy-friendly tech- nology is realized using zero-knowledge proofs. We describe a formal model of Identity...
Simulation and formal analysis of visual attention
Bosse, T.; Maanen, P.P. van; Treur, J.
2009-01-01
In this paper a simulation model for visual attention is discussed and formally analysed. The model is part of the design of an agent-based system that supports a naval officer in its task to compile a tactical picture of the situation in the field. A case study is described in which the model is
A Formal Model For Declarative Workflows
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mukkamala, Raghava Rao
it as a general formal model for specification and execution of declarative, event-based business processes, as a generalization of a concurrency model, the classic event structures. The model allows for an intuitive operational semantics and mapping of execution state by a notion of markings of the graphs and we...
Formal synthesis of naturally occurring norephedrine
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
A concise and simple synthesis of 1-hydroxy-phenethylamine derivatives has been achieved following classical organic transformations using commercially available chiral pools. The said derivatives were explored for the synthesis of naturally occurring bio-active small molecules. Formal synthesis of norephedrine, virolin ...
Formalizing the Problem of Music Description
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sturm, Bob L.; Bardeli, Rolf; Langlois, Thibault
2015-01-01
The lack of a formalism for “the problem of music descrip- tion” results in, among other things: ambiguity in what problem a music description system must address, how it should be evaluated, what criteria define its success, and the paradox that a music description system can reproduce the “ground...
A formal theory of the selfish gene.
Gardner, A; Welch, J J
2011-08-01
Adaptation is conventionally regarded as occurring at the level of the individual organism. In contrast, the theory of the selfish gene proposes that it is more correct to view adaptation as occurring at the level of the gene. This view has received much popular attention, yet has enjoyed only limited uptake in the primary research literature. Indeed, the idea of ascribing goals and strategies to genes has been highly controversial. Here, we develop a formal theory of the selfish gene, using optimization theory to capture the analogy of 'gene as fitness-maximizing agent' in mathematical terms. We provide formal justification for this view of adaptation by deriving mathematical correspondences that translate the optimization formalism into dynamical population genetics. We show that in the context of social interactions between genes, it is the gene's inclusive fitness that provides the appropriate maximand. Hence, genic selection can drive the evolution of altruistic genes. Finally, we use the formalism to assess the various criticisms that have been levelled at the theory of the selfish gene, dispelling some and strengthening others. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2011 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
Rhythmic Characteristics of Colloquial and Formal Tamil
Keane, Elinor
2006-01-01
Application of recently developed rhythmic measures to passages of read speech in colloquial and formal Tamil revealed some significant differences between the two varieties, which are in diglossic distribution. Both were also distinguished from a set of control data from British English speakers reading an equivalent passage. The findings have…
Towards a Formal Framework for Computational Trust
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Mogens; Krukow, Karl Kristian; Sassone, Vladimiro
2006-01-01
We define a mathematical measure for the quantitative comparison of probabilistic computational trust systems, and use it to compare a well-known class of algorithms based on the so-called beta model. The main novelty is that our approach is formal, rather than based on experimental simulation....
Informal and Formal Learning of General Practitioners
Spaan, Nadia Roos; Dekker, Anne R. J.; van der Velden, Alike W.; de Groot, Esther
2016-01-01
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to understand the influence of formal learning from a web-based training and informal (workplace) learning afterwards on the behaviour of general practitioners (GPs) with respect to prescription of antibiotics. Design/methodology/approach: To obtain insight in various learning processes, semi-structured…
Informal and formal learning of general practitioners
Spaan, Nadia Roos; Dekker, Anne R. J.; van der Velden, Alike W.; de Groot, Esther
2016-01-01
Purpose The purpose of this study is to understand the influence of formal learning from a web-based training and informal (workplace) learning afterwards on the behaviour of general practitioners (GPs) with respect to prescription of antibiotics. Design/methodology/approach To obtain insight in
On the Need for Practical Formal Methods
1998-01-01
additional research and engineering that is needed to make the current set of formal methods more practical. To illustrate the ideas, I present several exam ...either a good violin or a highly talented violinist. Light-weight techniques o er software developers good violins . A user need not be a talented
The formal path integral and quantum mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Johnson-Freyd, Theo
2010-01-01
Given an arbitrary Lagrangian function on R d and a choice of classical path, one can try to define Feynman's path integral supported near the classical path as a formal power series parameterized by 'Feynman diagrams', although these diagrams may diverge. We compute this expansion and show that it is (formally, if there are ultraviolet divergences) invariant under volume-preserving changes of coordinates. We prove that if the ultraviolet divergences cancel at each order, then our formal path integral satisfies a 'Fubini theorem' expressing the standard composition law for the time evolution operator in quantum mechanics. Moreover, we show that when the Lagrangian is inhomogeneous quadratic in velocity such that its homogeneous-quadratic part is given by a matrix with constant determinant, then the divergences cancel at each order. Thus, by 'cutting and pasting' and choosing volume-compatible local coordinates, our construction defines a Feynman-diagrammatic 'formal path integral' for the nonrelativistic quantum mechanics of a charged particle moving in a Riemannian manifold with an external electromagnetic field.