WorldWideScience

Sample records for include developing estimates

  1. Dental Age Estimation (DAE): Data management for tooth development stages including the third molar. Appropriate censoring of Stage H, the final stage of tooth development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Graham J; McDonald, Fraser; Andiappan, Manoharan; Lucas, Victoria S

    2015-11-01

    The final stage of dental development of third molars is usually helpful to indicate whether or not a subject is aged over 18 years. A complexity is that the final stage of development is unlimited in its upper border. Investigators usually select an inappropriate upper age limit or censor point for this tooth development stage. The literature was searched for appropriate data sets for dental age estimation and those that provided the count (n), the mean (x¯), and the standard deviation (sd) for each of the tooth development stages. The Demirjian G and Demirjian H were used for this study. Upper and lower limits of the Stage G and Stage H data were calculated limiting the data to plus or minus three standard deviations from the mean. The upper border of Stage H was limited by appropriate censoring at the maximum value for Stage G. The maximum age at attainment from published data, for Stage H, ranged from 22.60 years to 34.50 years. These data were explored to demonstrate how censoring provides an estimate for the correct maximum age for the final stage of Stage H as 21.64 years for UK Caucasians. This study shows that confining the data array of individual tooth developments stages to ± 3sd provides a reliable and logical way of censoring the data for tooth development stages with a Normal distribution of data. For Stage H this is inappropriate as it is unbounded in its upper limit. The use of a censored data array for Stage H using Percentile values is appropriate. This increases the reliability of using third molar Stage H alone to determine whether or not an individual is over 18 years old. For Stage H, individual ancestral groups should be censored using the same technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  2. Development of a kinetic model, including rate constant estimations, on iodine and caesium behaviour in the primary circuit of LWR's under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Buron, J.M.; Fernandez, S.

    1991-07-01

    In this report, a kinetic model has been developed with the aim to try to reproduce the chemical phenomena that take place in a flowing system containing steam, hydrogen and iodine and caesium vapours. The work is divided into two different parts. The first part consists in the estimation, through the Activited Complex Theory, of the reaction rate constants, for the chosen reactions, and the development of the kinetic model based on the concept of ideal tubular chemical reactor. The second part deals with the application of such model to several cases, which were taken from the Phase B 'Scoping Calculations' of the Phebus-FP Project (sequence AB) and the SFD-ST and SFD1.1 experiments. The main conclusion obtained from this work is that the assumption of instantaneous equilibrium could be inacurrate in order to estimate the iodine and caesium species distribution under severe accidents conditions

  3. Including estimates of the future in today's financial statements

    OpenAIRE

    Mary Barth

    2006-01-01

    This paper explains why the question is how, not if, today's financial statements should include estimates of the future. Including such estimates is not new, but their use is increasing. This increase results primarily because standard setters believe asset and liability measures that reflect current economic conditions and up-to-date expectations of the future will result in more useful information for making economic decisions, which is the objective of financial reporting. This is why sta...

  4. Nuclear data evaluation methodology including estimates of covariances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith D.L.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluated nuclear data rather than raw experimental and theoretical information are employed in nuclear applications such as the design of nuclear energy systems. Therefore, the process by which such information is produced and ultimately used is of critical interest to the nuclear science community. This paper provides an overview of various contemporary methods employed to generate evaluated cross sections and related physical quantities such as particle emission angular distributions and energy spectra. The emphasis here is on data associated with neutron induced reaction processes, with consideration of the uncertainties in these data, and on the more recent evaluation methods, e.g., those that are based on stochastic (Monte Carlo techniques. There is no unique way to perform such evaluations, nor are nuclear data evaluators united in their opinions as to which methods are superior to the others in various circumstances. In some cases it is not critical which approaches are used as long as there is consistency and proper use is made of the available physical information. However, in other instances there are definite advantages to using particular methods as opposed to other options. Some of these distinctions are discussed in this paper and suggestions are offered regarding fruitful areas for future research in the development of evaluation methodology.

  5. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology, including advanced validation concepts, to license evolving nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, C.; Williams, B.; Hemez, F.; Atamturktur, S.H.; McClure, P.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology (BEPU) is one option in the licensing of nuclear reactors. → The challenges for extending the BEPU method for fuel qualification for an advanced reactor fuel are primarily driven by schedule, the need for data, and the sufficiency of the data. → In this paper we develop an extended BEPU methodology that can potentially be used to address these new challenges in the design and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. → The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. → The methodology includes a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to existing data, so that required new testing can be minimized, saving cost by demonstrating that further testing will not enhance the quality of the predictive tools. - Abstract: Many evolving nuclear energy technologies use advanced predictive multiscale, multiphysics modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities to reduce the cost and schedule of design and licensing. Historically, the role of experiments has been as a primary tool for the design and understanding of nuclear system behavior, while M and S played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multiscale, multiphysics computational-based technology development, this role has been reversed. The experiments will still be needed, but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate the models leading to predictive simulations for design and licensing. Minimizing the required number of validation experiments produces cost and time savings. The use of multiscale, multiphysics models introduces challenges in validating these predictive tools - traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these challenges. This paper gives the basic aspects of a methodology that can potentially be used to address these new challenges in

  6. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, Cetin; Williams, Brian; McClure, Patrick; Nelson, Ralph A.

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for

  7. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Williams, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mc Clure, Patrick [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nelson, Ralph A [IDAHO NATIONAL LAB

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost

  8. Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic techniques. ... of managing the size of software development projects by Purchasers (Clients) and Vendors (Development ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  9. Feasibility of including fugitive PM-10 emissions estimates in the EPA emissions trends report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, W.; Carlson, P.

    1990-09-01

    The report describes the results of Part 2 of a two part study. Part 2 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing regional emission trends for PM-10. Part 1 was to evaluate the feasibility of developing VOC emission trends, on a regional and temporal basis. These studies are part of the effort underway to improve the national emission trends. Part 1 is presented in a separate report. The categories evaluated for the feasibility of developing regional emissions estimates were: unpaved roads, paved roads, wind erosion, agricultural tilling, construction activities, feedlots, burning, landfills, mining and quarrying unpaved parking lots, unpaved airstrips and storage piles

  10. Developing standard transmission system for radiology reporting including key images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seon Chil

    2007-01-01

    Development of hospital information system and Picture Archiving Communication System is not new in the medical field, and the development of internet and information technology are also universal. In the course of such development, however, it is hard to share medical information without a refined standard format. Especially in the department of radiology, the role of PACS has become very important in interchanging information with other disparate hospital information systems. A specific system needs to be developed that radiological reports are archived into a database efficiently. This includes sharing of medical images. A model is suggested in this study in which an internal system is developed where radiologists store necessary images and transmit them is the standard international clinical format, Clinical Document Architecture, and share the information with hospitals. CDA document generator was made to generate a new file format and separate the existing storage system from the new system. This was to ensure the access to required data in XML documents. The model presented in this study added a process where crucial images in reading are inserted in the CDA radiological report generator. Therefore, this study suggests a storage and transmission model for CDA documents, which is different from the existing DICOM SR. Radiological reports could be better shared, when the application function for inserting images and the analysis of standard clinical terms are completed

  11. Development of Numerical Estimation in Young Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.; Booth, Julie L.

    2004-01-01

    Two experiments examined kindergartners', first graders', and second graders' numerical estimation, the internal representations that gave rise to the estimates, and the general hypothesis that developmental sequences within a domain tend to repeat themselves in new contexts. Development of estimation in this age range on 0-to-100 number lines…

  12. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-01-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  13. A Reformed CDM - including new mechanisms for sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holm Olsen, K; Fenhann, J

    2009-07-01

    The annual CD4CDM Perspectives Series features a topic of pivotal importance to the global carbon market. The series seeks to communicate the diverse insights and visions of leading actors in the carbon market to better inform the decisions of professionals and policymakers in developing countries. The second theme of the series focuses on how the CDM can be reformed in a post-2012 climate regime, including new mechanism for sustainable development. Seventeen contributors from the private sector, Designated National Authorities, the Executive Board, research, and development agencies present their perspective on meeting challenges such as the unequal regional distribution of CDM projects, concerns about environmental integrity and technology transfer, complex governance procedures, and questions about the CDM's contribution to sustainable development. The new ideas and solutions to these challenges proposed by the authors in this edition of Perspectives have been solicited to help professionals and policy makers make the best decisions in the lead-up to COP 15 in Copenhagen and beyond. (au)

  14. A Reformed CDM - including new mechanisms for sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holm Olsen, K.; Fenhann, J.

    2009-07-01

    The annual CD4CDM Perspectives Series features a topic of pivotal importance to the global carbon market. The series seeks to communicate the diverse insights and visions of leading actors in the carbon market to better inform the decisions of professionals and policymakers in developing countries. The second theme of the series focuses on how the CDM can be reformed in a post-2012 climate regime, including new mechanism for sustainable development. Seventeen contributors from the private sector, Designated National Authorities, the Executive Board, research, and development agencies present their perspective on meeting challenges such as the unequal regional distribution of CDM projects, concerns about environmental integrity and technology transfer, complex governance procedures, and questions about the CDM's contribution to sustainable development. The new ideas and solutions to these challenges proposed by the authors in this edition of Perspectives have been solicited to help professionals and policy makers make the best decisions in the lead-up to COP 15 in Copenhagen and beyond. (au)

  15. Integrated Reliability Estimation of a Nuclear Maintenance Robot including a Software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, Heung Seop; Kim, Jae Hee; Jeong, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    Conventional reliability estimation techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), Markov Model, and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) have been used widely and approved in some industries. Then there are some limitations when we use them for a complicate robot systems including software such as intelligent reactor inspection robots. Therefore an expert's judgment plays an important role in estimating the reliability of a complicate system in practice, because experts can deal with diverse evidence related to the reliability and then perform an inference based on them. The proposed method in this paper combines qualitative and quantitative evidences and performs an inference like experts. Furthermore, it does the work in a formal and in a quantitative way unlike human experts, by the benefits of Bayesian Nets (BNs)

  16. A practical algorithm for distribution state estimation including renewable energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niknam, Taher [Electronic and Electrical Department, Shiraz University of Technology, Modares Blvd., P.O. 71555-313, Shiraz (Iran); Firouzi, Bahman Bahmani [Islamic Azad University Marvdasht Branch, Marvdasht (Iran)

    2009-11-15

    Renewable energy is energy that is in continuous supply over time. These kinds of energy sources are divided into five principal renewable sources of energy: the sun, the wind, flowing water, biomass and heat from within the earth. According to some studies carried out by the research institutes, about 25% of the new generation will be generated by Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) in the near future. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of RESs on the power systems, especially on the distribution networks. This paper presents a practical Distribution State Estimation (DSE) including RESs and some practical consideration. The proposed algorithm is based on the combination of Nelder-Mead simplex search and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithms, called PSO-NM. The proposed algorithm can estimate load and RES output values by Weighted Least-Square (WLS) approach. Some practical considerations are var compensators, Voltage Regulators (VRs), Under Load Tap Changer (ULTC) transformer modeling, which usually have nonlinear and discrete characteristics, and unbalanced three-phase power flow equations. The comparison results with other evolutionary optimization algorithms such as original PSO, Honey Bee Mating Optimization (HBMO), Neural Networks (NNs), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for a test system demonstrate that PSO-NM is extremely effective and efficient for the DSE problems. (author)

  17. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-01-01

    Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

  18. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

  19. Estimation of πd-Interactions in Organic Conductors Including Magnetic Anions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Takehiko; Katsuhara, Mao

    2002-03-01

    Magnetic interactions in organic conductors including magnetic anions, such as λ-(BETS)2FeCl4 and κ-(BETS)2FeX4 [X = Cl and Br], are estimated from intermolecular overlap integrals; the overlaps between anions afford Jdd, and those between anions and donors give Jπ d. From this, the most stable spin alignments are decided, and such quantities as the Néel and Weiss temperatures, as well as the magnitude of spin polarization on the π-molecules are evaluated on the basis of the mean-field theory of πd-systems. The calculation is extended to several other πd-conductors, which are classified depending on the relative magnitudes of the direct dd- and indirect πd-interactions.

  20. Genetic parameter estimates for carcass traits and visual scores including or not genomic information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordo, D G M; Espigolan, R; Tonussi, R L; Júnior, G A F; Bresolin, T; Magalhães, A F Braga; Feitosa, F L; Baldi, F; Carvalheiro, R; Tonhati, H; de Oliveira, H N; Chardulo, L A L; de Albuquerque, L G

    2016-05-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether visual scores used as selection criteria in Nellore breeding programs are effective indicators of carcass traits measured after slaughter. Additionally, this study evaluated the effect of different structures of the relationship matrix ( and ) on the estimation of genetic parameters and on the prediction accuracy of breeding values. There were 13,524 animals for visual scores of conformation (CS), finishing precocity (FP), and muscling (MS) and 1,753, 1,747, and 1,564 for LM area (LMA), backfat thickness (BF), and HCW, respectively. Of these, 1,566 animals were genotyped using a high-density panel containing 777,962 SNP. Six analyses were performed using multitrait animal models, each including the 3 visual scores and 1 carcass trait. For the visual scores, the model included direct additive genetic and residual random effects and the fixed effects of contemporary group (defined by year of birth, management group at yearling, and farm) and the linear effect of age of animal at yearling. The same model was used for the carcass traits, replacing the effect of age of animal at yearling with the linear effect of age of animal at slaughter. The variance and covariance components were estimated by the REML method in analyses using the numerator relationship matrix () or combining the genomic and the numerator relationship matrices (). The heritability estimates for the visual scores obtained with the 2 methods were similar and of moderate magnitude (0.23-0.34), indicating that these traits should response to direct selection. The heritabilities for LMA, BF, and HCW were 0.13, 0.07, and 0.17, respectively, using matrix and 0.29, 0.16, and 0.23, respectively, using matrix . The genetic correlations between the visual scores and carcass traits were positive, and higher correlations were generally obtained when matrix was used. Considering the difficulties and cost of measuring carcass traits postmortem, visual scores of

  1. Comparison of some biased estimation methods (including ordinary subset regression) in the linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidik, S. M.

    1975-01-01

    Ridge, Marquardt's generalized inverse, shrunken, and principal components estimators are discussed in terms of the objectives of point estimation of parameters, estimation of the predictive regression function, and hypothesis testing. It is found that as the normal equations approach singularity, more consideration must be given to estimable functions of the parameters as opposed to estimation of the full parameter vector; that biased estimators all introduce constraints on the parameter space; that adoption of mean squared error as a criterion of goodness should be independent of the degree of singularity; and that ordinary least-squares subset regression is the best overall method.

  2. Development of realtime cognitive state estimator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Makoto; Kitamura, Masashi; Yoshikaea, Hidekazu

    2004-01-01

    The realtime cognitive state estimator based on the set of physiological measures has been developed in order to provide valuable information on the human behavior during the interaction through the Man-Machine Interface. The artificial neural network has been adopted to categorize the cognitive states by using the qualitative physiological data pattern as the inputs. The laboratory experiments, in which the subjects' cognitive states were intentionally controlled by the task presented, were performed to obtain training data sets for the neural network. The developed system has been shown to be capable of estimating cognitive state with higher accuracy and realtime estimation capability has also been confirmed through the data processing experiments. (author)

  3. [The informed consent in international clinical trials including developing countries].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montenegro Surís, Alexander; Monreal Agüero, Magda Elaine

    2008-01-01

    The informed consent procedure has been one of the most important controversies of ethical debates about clinical trials in developing countries. In this essay we present our recommendations about important aspects to consider in the informed consent procedure for clinical trials in developing countries. We performed a full publications review identified by MEDLINE using these terms combinations: informed consent, developing countries, less developed countries and clinical trials. To protect volunteers in less developed countries should be valuated the importance of the community in the informed consent proceeding. The signing and dating of the informed consent form is not always the best procedure to document the informed consent. The informed consent form should be written by local translators. Alternative medias of communications could be needed for communicatios of the information to volunteers. Comparing with developed countries the informed consent proceeding in clinical trials in developing countries frequently require additional efforts. The developing of pragmatic researches is needed to implement informed consent proceedings assuring subjects voluntarily in each developing country. The main aspects to define in each clinical trial for each country are the influence of the community, the effective communication of the information, the documentation of the informed consent and local authority's control.

  4. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodríguez, Iván Merino; Álvarez-Velarde, Francisco; Martín-Fuertes, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Four fuel cycle scenarios have been analyzed in resources and economic terms. • Scenarios involve Once-Through, Pu burning, and MA transmutation strategies. • No restrictions were found in terms of uranium and plutonium availability. • The best case cost and the impact of their uncertainties to the LCOE were analyzed. - Abstract: Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CP-ESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U–Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR E VOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of

  5. INCLUDING INTANGIBLE ASSETS IN RATES TO ESTIMATE THE RISK OF BANKRUPTCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia IANCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to show that an economic entity’s intangible assets play an important role in predicting the risk of bankruptcy of the company and at the same time in its evolution. Based on benchmarking and on appeal to the experience and intuition of available human expert it can be shaped a credible model and, based on this model can be projected the future course of a business organization. Among other issues, we note that the intangible assets of a company can and should be entered into the equation for estimating the risk of bankruptcy whether it avails or not to artificial intelligence (AI techniques to solve this problem (values lead to bankruptcy and the graphics functions differ majorly when the analysis includes the Rhine rate which takes into account intangibles of firms. From the structure of the paper we can see that whatever the type of model used in predicting the risk of bankruptcy at either classic or using artificial intelligence techniques (AI a leading role in the evolution and the value of the company represents intangible.

  6. EVAPORATION: a new vapour pressure estimation methodfor organic molecules including non-additivity and intramolecular interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Compernolle

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present EVAPORATION (Estimation of VApour Pressure of ORganics, Accounting for Temperature, Intramolecular, and Non-additivity effects, a method to predict (subcooled liquid pure compound vapour pressure p0 of organic molecules that requires only molecular structure as input. The method is applicable to zero-, mono- and polyfunctional molecules. A simple formula to describe log10p0(T is employed, that takes into account both a wide temperature dependence and the non-additivity of functional groups. In order to match the recent data on functionalised diacids an empirical modification to the method was introduced. Contributions due to carbon skeleton, functional groups, and intramolecular interaction between groups are included. Molecules typically originating from oxidation of biogenic molecules are within the scope of this method: aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, ethers, esters, nitrates, acids, peroxides, hydroperoxides, peroxy acyl nitrates and peracids. Therefore the method is especially suited to describe compounds forming secondary organic aerosol (SOA.

  7. Developing HYDMN code to include the transient of MNSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Barhoum, M.

    2000-11-01

    A description of the programs added to HYDMN code (a code for thermal-hydraulic steady state of MNSR) to include the transient of the same MNSR is presented. The code asks the initial conditions for the power (in k W) and the cold initial core inlet temperature (in degrees centigrade). A time-dependent study of the coolant inlet and outlet temperature, its speed, pool and tank temperatures is done for MNSR in general and for the Syrian MNSR in particular. The study solves the differential equations taken from reference (1) by using some numerical methods found in reference (3). The code becomes this way independent of any external information source. (Author)

  8. Linear scleroderma en coup de sabre including abnormal dental development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hørberg, M; Lauesen, S R; Daugaard-Jensen, J

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Linear scleroderma en coup de sabre (SCS) is a rare skin condition, where dense collagen is deposited in a localised groove of the head and neck area resembling the stroke of a sabre. The SCS may involve the oral cavity, but the severity and relation to this skin abnormality is unknow...... with a left-sided skin defect (SCS) and a left-sided local malformation in her dentition. It is possible that there is a developmental connection between these two left-sided defects, both with an ectodermal origin.......-UP: The patient has been regularly controlled and treated since she was first diagnosed. A surgical and orthodontic treatment was performed to ensure optimal occlusion, space and alveolar bone development. The present age of the patient is 14 years and 10 months. CONCLUSION: This case demonstrated a patient...

  9. HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

  10. Estimation of full moment tensors, including uncertainties, for earthquakes, volcanic events, and nuclear explosions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvizuri, Celso R.

    We present a catalog of full seismic moment tensors for 63 events from Uturuncu volcano in Bolivia. The events were recorded during 2011-2012 in the PLUTONS seismic array of 24 broadband stations. Most events had magnitudes between 0.5 and 2.0 and did not generate discernible surface waves; the largest event was Mw 2.8. For each event we computed the misfit between observed and synthetic waveforms, and we used first-motion polarity measurements to reduce the number of possible solutions. Each moment tensor solution was obtained using a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors. For each event we show the misfit function in eigenvalue space, represented by a lune. We identify three subsets of the catalog: (1) 6 isotropic events, (2) 5 tensional crack events, and (3) a swarm of 14 events southeast of the volcanic center that appear to be double couples. The occurrence of positively isotropic events is consistent with other published results from volcanic and geothermal regions. Several of these previous results, as well as our results, cannot be interpreted within the context of either an oblique opening crack or a crack-plus-double-couple model. Proper characterization of uncertainties for full moment tensors is critical for distinguishing among physical models of source processes. A seismic moment tensor is a 3x3 symmetric matrix that provides a compact representation of a seismic source. We develop an algorithm to estimate moment tensors and their uncertainties from observed seismic data. For a given event, the algorithm performs a grid search over the six-dimensional space of moment tensors by generating synthetic waveforms for each moment tensor and then evaluating a misfit function between the observed and synthetic waveforms. 'The' moment tensor M0 for the event is then the moment tensor with minimum misfit. To describe the uncertainty associated with M0, we first convert the misfit function to a probability function. The uncertainty, or

  11. Sparse Channel Estimation Including the Impact of the Transceiver Filters with Application to OFDM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbu, Oana-Elena; Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro

    2014-01-01

    Traditionally, the dictionary matrices used in sparse wireless channel estimation have been based on the discrete Fourier transform, following the assumption that the channel frequency response (CFR) can be approximated as a linear combination of a small number of multipath components, each one......) and receive (demodulation) filters. Hence, the assumption of the CFR being sparse in the canonical Fourier dictionary may no longer hold. In this work, we derive a signal model and subsequently a novel dictionary matrix for sparse estimation that account for the impact of transceiver filters. Numerical...... results obtained in an OFDM transmission scenario demonstrate the superior accuracy of a sparse estimator that uses our proposed dictionary rather than the classical Fourier dictionary, and its robustness against a mismatch in the assumed transmit filter characteristics....

  12. Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabiei, Ehsan; Haberlandt, Uwe; Sester, Monika; Fitzner, Daniel; Wallner, Markus

    2016-09-01

    The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rain rate. The optical sensors used in that study are designed for operating the windscreen wipers and showed promising results for rainfall measurement purposes. Their measurement accuracy has been quantified in laboratory experiments. Considering explicitly those errors, the main objective of this study is to investigate the benefit of using RCs for estimating areal rainfall. For that, computer experiments are carried out, where radar rainfall is considered as the reference and the other sources of data, i.e., RCs and rain gauges, are extracted from radar data. Comparing the quality of areal rainfall estimation by RCs with rain gauges and reference data helps to investigate the benefit of the RCs. The value of this additional source of data is not only assessed for areal rainfall estimation performance but also for use in hydrological modeling. Considering measurement errors derived from laboratory experiments, the result shows that the RCs provide useful additional information for areal rainfall estimation as well as for hydrological modeling. Moreover, by testing larger uncertainties for RCs, they observed to be useful up to a certain level for areal rainfall estimation and discharge simulation.

  13. Dose estimate for personal music players including earphone sensitivity and characteristic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hammershøi, Dorte; Ordoñez Pizarro, Rodrigo Eduardo; Christensen, Anders Tornvig

    2016-01-01

    Personal music players can expose their listeners to high sound pressure levels over prolonged periods of time. The risk associated with prolonged listening is not readily available to the listener, and efforts are made to standardize dose estimates that may be displayed for the user. In the pres......Personal music players can expose their listeners to high sound pressure levels over prolonged periods of time. The risk associated with prolonged listening is not readily available to the listener, and efforts are made to standardize dose estimates that may be displayed for the user...... earphone measurements published in the past. The work is on-going....

  14. Validity of segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis for estimating fat-free mass in children including overweight individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Megumi; Midorikawa, Taishi; Hikihara, Yuki; Masuo, Yoshihisa; Sakamoto, Shizuo; Torii, Suguru; Kawakami, Yasuo; Fukunaga, Tetsuo; Kanehisa, Hiroaki

    2017-02-01

    This study examined the validity of segmental bioelectrical impedance (BI) analysis for predicting the fat-free masses (FFMs) of whole-body and body segments in children including overweight individuals. The FFM and impedance (Z) values of arms, trunk, legs, and whole body were determined using a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and segmental BI analyses, respectively, in 149 boys and girls aged 6 to 12 years, who were divided into model-development (n = 74), cross-validation (n = 35), and overweight (n = 40) groups. Simple regression analysis was applied to (length) 2 /Z (BI index) for each of the whole-body and 3 segments to develop the prediction equations of the measured FFM of the related body part. In the model-development group, the BI index of each of the 3 segments and whole body was significantly correlated to the measured FFM (R 2 = 0.867-0.932, standard error of estimation = 0.18-1.44 kg (5.9%-8.7%)). There was no significant difference between the measured and predicted FFM values without systematic error. The application of each equation derived in the model-development group to the cross-validation and overweight groups did not produce significant differences between the measured and predicted FFM values and systematic errors, with an exception that the arm FFM in the overweight group was overestimated. Segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis is useful for predicting the FFM of each of whole-body and body segments in children including overweight individuals, although the application for estimating arm FFM in overweight individuals requires a certain modification.

  15. Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars – computer experiments including hydrological modeling

    OpenAIRE

    E. Rabiei; U. Haberlandt; M. Sester; D. Fitzner; M. Wallner

    2016-01-01

    The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rai...

  16. Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Rabiei, Ehsan; Haberlandt, Uwe; Sester, Monika; Fitzner, Daniel; Wallner, Markus

    2016-01-01

    The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have been emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rainfall amounts...

  17. A Posteriori Error Estimates Including Algebraic Error and Stopping Criteria for Iterative Solvers

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jiránek, P.; Strakoš, Zdeněk; Vohralík, M.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 3 (2010), s. 1567-1590 ISSN 1064-8275 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100300802 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GP201/09/P464 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : second-order elliptic partial differential equation * finite volume method * a posteriori error estimates * iterative methods for linear algebraic systems * conjugate gradient method * stopping criteria Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 3.016, year: 2010

  18. Radiation doses to patients in computed tomography including a ready reckoner for dose estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szendroe, G.; Axelsson, B.; Leitz, W.

    1995-11-01

    The radiation burden from CT-examinations is still growing in most countries and has reached a considerable part of the total from medical diagnostic x-ray procedures. Efforts for avoiding excess radiation doses are therefore especially well motivated within this field. A survey of CT-examination techniques practised in Sweden showed that standard settings for the exposure variables are used for the vast majority of examinations. Virtually no adjustments to the patient's differences in anatomy have been performed - even for infants and children on average the same settings have been used. The adjustment of the exposure variables to the individual anatomy offers a large potential of dose savings. Amongst the imaging parameters, a change of the radiation dose will primarily influence the noise. As a starting point it is assumed that, irrespective of the patient's anatomy, the same level of noise can be accepted for a certain diagnostic task. To a large extent the noise level is determined by the number of photons that are registered in the detector. Hence, for different patient size and anatomy, the exposure should be adjusted so that the same transmitted photon fluence is achieved. An appendix with a ready reckoner for dose estimation for CT-scanners used in Sweden is attached. 7 refs, 5 figs, 8 tabs

  19. Estimation of the fluctuating water surface area of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China[Includes the CSCE forum on professional practice and career development : 1. international engineering mechanics and materials specialty conference : 1. international/3. coastal, estuarine and offshore engineering specialty conference : 2. international/8. construction specialty conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, H.R. [Concordia Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada). Dept. of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering; Chongqing Pharmaceutical Industry Designing Inst., Chongqing (China); Li, S.S. [Concordia Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada). Dept. of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering

    2009-07-01

    The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China is the largest river-type reservoir in the world. This paper presented a simple methodology to assess the reservoir project impacts. In particular, it determined the variations in the submersion of the TGR's water storage on an annual discharge-storage cycle. A good understanding of the variations is important to investigate channel morphology, sediment transport, ecological changes, geological hazards and relocation of local residents. The surface area of the TGR was calculated from output of HEC-RAS, a 1-D hydrodynamics model developed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Mass transfer-based methods were used to estimate evaporation, which required wind and vapour pressure as input. The flow velocities and water levels in the TGR were numerically predicted. The predictions of cross-sectional mean flow velocities and the slope of the water surface were in good agreement with field data. The calibrated model was then run for the design water levels and inflows for each month of the year. The total area of the water surface that fluctuates in time was calculated from model results. The amount of water evaporation loss from the water surface was estimated using the calculated area and climatologic statistics of water and air temperatures, humidity and winds. 15 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

  20. Retrofitting the Low Impact Development Practices into Developed Urban areas Including Barriers and Potential Solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho

    2017-06-01

    Low impact development (LID)/green infrastructure (GI) practices have been identified as the sustainable practices of managing the stormwater in urban areas. Due to the increasing population, most of the cities are more developing which results in the change of natural area into impervious areas (roads, buildings etc.). Moreover, urbanization and climate change are causing many water-related problems and making over cities unsafe and insecure. Under these circumstances, there is a need to introduce new stormwater management practices into developed cities to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization. For this purpose, retrofitting low impact development practices demands more attention to reduce these water-related problems and trying to make our cities sustainable. In developed areas, there is a little space is available for the retrofitting of LID practices for the stormwater management. Therefore, the selection of an appropriate place to retrofitting LID practices needs more concern. This paper describes the successfully applied retrofitting LID practices around the globe. It also includes the process of applying retrofitting LID practices at the suitable place with the suitable combination. Optimal places for the retrofitting of different LID practices are also mentioned. This paper also highlights the barriers and potential solutions of retrofitting LID practices in urban areas.

  1. Retrofitting the Low Impact Development Practices into Developed Urban areas Including Barriers and Potential Solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shafique Muhammad

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Low impact development (LID/green infrastructure (GI practices have been identified as the sustainable practices of managing the stormwater in urban areas. Due to the increasing population, most of the cities are more developing which results in the change of natural area into impervious areas (roads, buildings etc.. Moreover, urbanization and climate change are causing many water-related problems and making over cities unsafe and insecure. Under these circumstances, there is a need to introduce new stormwater management practices into developed cities to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization. For this purpose, retrofitting low impact development practices demands more attention to reduce these water-related problems and trying to make our cities sustainable. In developed areas, there is a little space is available for the retrofitting of LID practices for the stormwater management. Therefore, the selection of an appropriate place to retrofitting LID practices needs more concern. This paper describes the successfully applied retrofitting LID practices around the globe. It also includes the process of applying retrofitting LID practices at the suitable place with the suitable combination. Optimal places for the retrofitting of different LID practices are also mentioned. This paper also highlights the barriers and potential solutions of retrofitting LID practices in urban areas.

  2. A Developed ESPRIT Algorithm for DOA Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayad, Youssef; Wang, Caiyun; Cao, Qunsheng; Hafez, Alaa El-Din Sayed

    2015-05-01

    A novel algorithm for estimating direction of arrival (DOAE) for target, which aspires to contribute to increase the estimation process accuracy and decrease the calculation costs, has been carried out. It has introduced time and space multiresolution in Estimation of Signal Parameter via Rotation Invariance Techniques (ESPRIT) method (TS-ESPRIT) to realize subspace approach that decreases errors caused by the model's nonlinearity effect. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is verified by using Monte Carlo simulation, the DOAE accuracy has evaluated by closed-form Cramér-Rao bound (CRB) which reveals that the proposed algorithm's estimated results are better than those of the normal ESPRIT methods leading to the estimator performance enhancement.

  3. Loss of life estimation – Review, developments and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonkman S.N. (Bas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the modelling approaches, input and output types and applications are discussed. Challenges to the field are summarized, including empirical data collection for validation and benchmarking and comparison studies.

  4. Development on electromagnetic impedance function modeling and its estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutarno, D., E-mail: Sutarno@fi.itb.ac.id [Earth Physics and Complex System Division Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Institut Teknologi Bandung (Indonesia)

    2015-09-30

    Today the Electromagnetic methods such as magnetotellurics (MT) and controlled sources audio MT (CSAMT) is used in a broad variety of applications. Its usefulness in poor seismic areas and its negligible environmental impact are integral parts of effective exploration at minimum cost. As exploration was forced into more difficult areas, the importance of MT and CSAMT, in conjunction with other techniques, has tended to grow continuously. However, there are obviously important and difficult problems remaining to be solved concerning our ability to collect process and interpret MT as well as CSAMT in complex 3D structural environments. This talk aim at reviewing and discussing the recent development on MT as well as CSAMT impedance functions modeling, and also some improvements on estimation procedures for the corresponding impedance functions. In MT impedance modeling, research efforts focus on developing numerical method for computing the impedance functions of three dimensionally (3-D) earth resistivity models. On that reason, 3-D finite elements numerical modeling for the impedances is developed based on edge element method. Whereas, in the CSAMT case, the efforts were focused to accomplish the non-plane wave problem in the corresponding impedance functions. Concerning estimation of MT and CSAMT impedance functions, researches were focused on improving quality of the estimates. On that objective, non-linear regression approach based on the robust M-estimators and the Hilbert transform operating on the causal transfer functions, were used to dealing with outliers (abnormal data) which are frequently superimposed on a normal ambient MT as well as CSAMT noise fields. As validated, the proposed MT impedance modeling method gives acceptable results for standard three dimensional resistivity models. Whilst, the full solution based modeling that accommodate the non-plane wave effect for CSAMT impedances is applied for all measurement zones, including near-, transition

  5. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2014-08-19

    The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series.

  6. COSTMODL - AN AUTOMATED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST ESTIMATION TOOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, G. B.

    1994-01-01

    The cost of developing computer software consumes an increasing portion of many organizations' budgets. As this trend continues, the capability to estimate the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product becomes increasingly important. COSTMODL is an automated software development estimation tool which fulfills this need. Assimilating COSTMODL to any organization's particular environment can yield significant reduction in the risk of cost overruns and failed projects. This user-customization capability is unmatched by any other available estimation tool. COSTMODL accepts a description of a software product to be developed and computes estimates of the effort required to produce it, the calendar schedule required, and the distribution of effort and staffing as a function of the defined set of development life-cycle phases. This is accomplished by the five cost estimation algorithms incorporated into COSTMODL: the NASA-developed KISS model; the Basic, Intermediate, and Ada COCOMO models; and the Incremental Development model. This choice affords the user the ability to handle project complexities ranging from small, relatively simple projects to very large projects. Unique to COSTMODL is the ability to redefine the life-cycle phases of development and the capability to display a graphic representation of the optimum organizational structure required to develop the subject project, along with required staffing levels and skills. The program is menu-driven and mouse sensitive with an extensive context-sensitive help system that makes it possible for a new user to easily install and operate the program and to learn the fundamentals of cost estimation without having prior training or separate documentation. The implementation of these functions, along with the customization feature, into one program makes COSTMODL unique within the industry. COSTMODL was written for IBM PC compatibles, and it requires Turbo Pascal 5.0 or later and Turbo

  7. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  8. Innovative Methods for Estimating Densities and Detection Probabilities of Secretive Reptiles Including Invasive Constrictors and Rare Upland Snakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-30

    home range  maintenance  or attraction to or avoidance of  landscape features, including  roads  (Morales et al. 2004, McClintock et al. 2012). For example...radiotelemetry and extensive road survey data are used to generate the first density estimates available for the species. The results show that southern...secretive snakes that combines behavioral observations of snake road crossing speed, systematic road survey data, and simulations of spatial

  9. Software Estimation: Developing an Accurate, Reliable Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    based and size-based estimates is able to accurately plan, launch, and execute on schedule. Bob Sinclair, NAWCWD Chris Rickets , NAWCWD Brad Hodgins...Office by Carnegie Mellon University. SMPSP and SMTSP are service marks of Carnegie Mellon University. 1. Rickets , Chris A, “A TSP Software Maintenance...Life Cycle”, CrossTalk, March, 2005. 2. Koch, Alan S, “TSP Can Be the Building blocks for CMMI”, CrossTalk, March, 2005. 3. Hodgins, Brad, Rickets

  10. Migration of antioxidants from polylactic acid films, a parameter estimation approach: Part I - A model including convective mass transfer coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samsudin, Hayati; Auras, Rafael; Burgess, Gary; Dolan, Kirk; Soto-Valdez, Herlinda

    2018-03-01

    A two-step solution based on the boundary conditions of Crank's equations for mass transfer in a film was developed. Three driving factors, the diffusion (D), partition (K p,f ) and convective mass transfer coefficients (h), govern the sorption and/or desorption kinetics of migrants from polymer films. These three parameters were simultaneously estimated. They provide in-depth insight into the physics of a migration process. The first step was used to find the combination of D, K p,f and h that minimized the sums of squared errors (SSE) between the predicted and actual results. In step 2, an ordinary least square (OLS) estimation was performed by using the proposed analytical solution containing D, K p,f and h. Three selected migration studies of PLA/antioxidant-based films were used to demonstrate the use of this two-step solution. Additional parameter estimation approaches such as sequential and bootstrap were also performed to acquire a better knowledge about the kinetics of migration. The proposed model successfully provided the initial guesses for D, K p,f and h. The h value was determined without performing a specific experiment for it. By determining h together with D, under or overestimation issues pertaining to a migration process can be avoided since these two parameters are correlated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Development of Cost Estimation Methodology of Decommissioning for PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Il; Yoo, Yeon Jae; Lim, Yong Kyu; Chang, Hyeon Sik; Song, Geun Ho

    2013-01-01

    The permanent closure of nuclear power plant should be conducted with the strict laws and the profound planning including the cost and schedule estimation because the plant is very contaminated with the radioactivity. In Korea, there are two types of the nuclear power plant. One is the pressurized light water reactor (PWR) and the other is the pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) called as CANDU reactor. Also, the 50% of the operating nuclear power plant in Korea is the PWRs which were originally designed by CE (Combustion Engineering). There have been experiences about the decommissioning of Westinghouse type PWR, but are few experiences on that of CE type PWR. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the cost estimation methodology and evaluate technical level of decommissioning for the application to CE type PWR based on the system engineering technology. The aim of present study is to develop the cost estimation methodology of decommissioning for application to PWR. Through the study, the following conclusions are obtained: · Based on the system engineering, the decommissioning work can be classified as Set, Subset, Task, Subtask and Work cost units. · The Set and Task structure are grouped as 29 Sets and 15 Task s, respectively. · The final result shows the cost and project schedule for the project control and risk management. · The present results are preliminary and should be refined and improved based on the modeling and cost data reflecting available technology and current costs like labor and waste data

  12. Gender, renal function, and outcomes on the liver transplant waiting list: assessment of revised MELD including estimated glomerular filtration rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Robert P; Shaheen, Abdel Aziz M; Aspinall, Alexander I; Quinn, Robert R; Burak, Kelly W

    2011-03-01

    The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) allocation system for liver transplantation (LT) may present a disadvantage for women by including serum creatinine, which is typically lower in females. Our objectives were to investigate gender disparities in outcomes among LT candidates and to assess a revised MELD, including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), for predicting waiting list mortality. Adults registered for LT between 2002 and 2007 were identified using the UNOS database. We compared components of MELD, MDRD-derived eGFR, and the 3-month probability of LT and death between genders. Discrimination of MELD, MELDNa, and revised models including eGFR for mortality were compared using c-statistics. A total of 40,393 patients (36% female) met the inclusion criteria; 9% died and 24% underwent LT within 3 months of listing. Compared with men, women had lower median serum creatinine (0.9 vs. 1.0 mg/dl), eGFR (72 vs. 83 ml/min/1.73 m(2)), and mean MELD (16.5 vs. 17.2; all p discrimination for 3-month mortality (c-statistics: MELD 0.896, MELD-eGFR 0.894, MELDNa 0.911, MELDNa-eGFR 0.905). Women are disadvantaged under MELD potentially due to its inclusion of creatinine. However, since including eGFR in MELD does not improve mortality prediction, alternative refinements are necessary. Copyright © 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Prenatal parental separation and body weight, including development of overweight and obesity later in childhood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lena Hohwü

    Full Text Available Early parental separation may be a stress factor causing a long-term alteration in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal-axis activity possibly impacting on the susceptibility to develop overweight and obesity in offspring. We aimed to examine the body mass index (BMI and the risk of overweight and obesity in children whose parents lived separately before the child was born.A follow-up study was conducted using data from the Aarhus Birth Cohort in Denmark and included 2876 children with measurements of height and weight at 9-11-years-of-age, and self-reported information on parental cohabitation status at child birth and at 9-11-years-of-age. Quantile regression was used to estimate the difference in median BMI between children whose parents lived separately (n = 124 or together (n = 2752 before the birth. We used multiple logistic regression to calculate odds ratio (OR for overweight and obesity, adjusted for gender, parity, breast feeding status, and maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, weight gain during pregnancy, age and educational level at child birth; with and without possible intermediate factors birth weight and maternal smoking during pregnancy. Due to a limited number of obese children, OR for obesity was adjusted for the a priori confounder maternal pre-pregnancy BMI only.The difference in median BMI was 0.54 kg/m2 (95% confidence intervals (CI: 0.10; 0.98 between children whose parents lived separately before birth and children whose parents lived together. The risk of overweight and obesity was statistically significantly increased in children whose parents lived separately before the birth of the child; OR 2.29 (95% CI: 1.18; 4.45 and OR 2.81 (95% CI: 1.05; 7.51, respectively. Additional, adjustment for possible intermediate factors did not substantially change the estimates.Parental separation before child birth was associated with higher BMI, and increased risk of overweight and obesity in 9-11-year-old children; this may suggest a fetal

  14. The Underground Economy and GDP Estimation in Developing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) in most developing countries portrays a lot of meaning; most often it is very low. This could be true or false. The existence of underground economy in this economies tend to undermine the estimation of GDP in developing economies, because the size of such economy is ...

  15. Development of dose rate estimation system for FBR maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iizawa, Katsuyuki [Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Inst., Tsuruga Head Office, International Cooperation and Technology Development Center, Tsuruga, Fukui (Japan); Takeuchi, Jun; Yoshikawa, Satoru [Hitachi Engineering Company, Ltd., Hitachi, Ibaraki (Japan); Urushihara, Hiroshi [Ibaraki Hitachi Information Service Co., Ltd., Omika, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2001-09-01

    During maintenance activities on the primary sodium cooling system by an FBR Personnel radiation exposure arises mainly from the presence of radioactive corrosion products (CP). A CP behavior analysis code, PSYCHE, and a radiation shielding calculation code, QAD-CG, have been developed and applied to investigate the possible reduction of radiation exposure of workers. In order to make these evaluation methods more accessible to plant engineers, the user interface of the codes has been improved and an integrated system, including visualization of the calculated gamma-ray radiation dose-rate map, has been developed. The system has been verified by evaluating the distribution of the radiation dose-rate within the Monju primary heat transport system cells from the estimated saturated CP deposition and distribution which would be present following about 20 cycles of full power operation. (author)

  16. Development of dose rate estimation system for FBR maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iizawa, Katsuyuki; Takeuchi, Jun; Yoshikawa, Satoru; Urushihara, Hiroshi

    2001-01-01

    During maintenance activities on the primary sodium cooling system by an FBR Personnel radiation exposure arises mainly from the presence of radioactive corrosion products (CP). A CP behavior analysis code, PSYCHE, and a radiation shielding calculation code, QAD-CG, have been developed and applied to investigate the possible reduction of radiation exposure of workers. In order to make these evaluation methods more accessible to plant engineers, the user interface of the codes has been improved and an integrated system, including visualization of the calculated gamma-ray radiation dose-rate map, has been developed. The system has been verified by evaluating the distribution of the radiation dose-rate within the Monju primary heat transport system cells from the estimated saturated CP deposition and distribution which would be present following about 20 cycles of full power operation. (author)

  17. Robust Variance Estimation with Dependent Effect Sizes: Practical Considerations Including a Software Tutorial in Stata and SPSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-Smith, Emily E.; Tipton, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    Methodologists have recently proposed robust variance estimation as one way to handle dependent effect sizes in meta-analysis. Software macros for robust variance estimation in meta-analysis are currently available for Stata (StataCorp LP, College Station, TX, USA) and SPSS (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA), yet there is little guidance for authors regarding…

  18. Robust variance estimation with dependent effect sizes: practical considerations including a software tutorial in Stata and spss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-Smith, Emily E; Tipton, Elizabeth

    2014-03-01

    Methodologists have recently proposed robust variance estimation as one way to handle dependent effect sizes in meta-analysis. Software macros for robust variance estimation in meta-analysis are currently available for Stata (StataCorp LP, College Station, TX, USA) and spss (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA), yet there is little guidance for authors regarding the practical application and implementation of those macros. This paper provides a brief tutorial on the implementation of the Stata and spss macros and discusses practical issues meta-analysts should consider when estimating meta-regression models with robust variance estimates. Two example databases are used in the tutorial to illustrate the use of meta-analysis with robust variance estimates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Coastal erosion's influencing factors include development, dams, wells, and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aubrey, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    The demographic flight to the coast, begun in early civilization, continues unabated worldwide according to latest studies. The percentage of population living on the coast is expected to remain relatively constant over the next few decades, but the total numbers will increase as the population increases. Recent coastal battering by hurricanes and extratropical storms poses questions about coastal habitability and the real economics of coastal development. Repair costs are borne by private individuals as well as the public in various direct and indirect ways. As these costs escalate, it is fitting to ask what the future portends for storm and coastal-flood damage. It is known that development pressures will continue to increase along the coast, but what will happen concurrently to natural-hazard threats to this infrastructure? Though much emphasis has been placed on sea-level rise, the broader issue is climate change in general. Here, the author considers climate change in both its natural and anthropogenic perspectives. Without becoming mired in the debate about the greenhouse effect and human influence on climatic shifts, some of the broad classes of natural hazards that might accompany climate change are examined. There are several categories of possible global-change effects on coastal erosion. In the early 1980's, an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report postulated increases in global sea level up to 4 meters during the next 100 years. Though balanced somewhat by other, lower estimates of sea-level rise, this higher extreme grabbed public attention. During the next decade, scientists attempted to concur on a more reasonable estimate of global sea-level rise due to climate change. Recent credible estimates suggest that approximately 10 to 20 percent of EPA's earlier maximum estimate is most reasonable

  20. A hierarchical estimator development for estimation of tire-road friction coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xudong; Göhlich, Dietmar

    2017-01-01

    The effect of vehicle active safety systems is subject to the friction force arising from the contact of tires and the road surface. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the tire-road friction coefficient is of great importance to achieve a good performance of these control systems. This paper presents a tire-road friction coefficient estimation method for an advanced vehicle configuration, four-motorized-wheel electric vehicles, in which the longitudinal tire force is easily obtained. A hierarchical structure is adopted for the proposed estimation design. An upper estimator is developed based on unscented Kalman filter to estimate vehicle state information, while a hybrid estimation method is applied as the lower estimator to identify the tire-road friction coefficient using general regression neural network (GRNN) and Bayes' theorem. GRNN aims at detecting road friction coefficient under small excitations, which are the most common situations in daily driving. GRNN is able to accurately create a mapping from input parameters to the friction coefficient, avoiding storing an entire complex tire model. As for large excitations, the estimation algorithm is based on Bayes' theorem and a simplified "magic formula" tire model. The integrated estimation method is established by the combination of the above-mentioned estimators. Finally, the simulations based on a high-fidelity CarSim vehicle model are carried out on different road surfaces and driving maneuvers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method.

  1. A hierarchical estimator development for estimation of tire-road friction coefficient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xudong Zhang

    Full Text Available The effect of vehicle active safety systems is subject to the friction force arising from the contact of tires and the road surface. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the tire-road friction coefficient is of great importance to achieve a good performance of these control systems. This paper presents a tire-road friction coefficient estimation method for an advanced vehicle configuration, four-motorized-wheel electric vehicles, in which the longitudinal tire force is easily obtained. A hierarchical structure is adopted for the proposed estimation design. An upper estimator is developed based on unscented Kalman filter to estimate vehicle state information, while a hybrid estimation method is applied as the lower estimator to identify the tire-road friction coefficient using general regression neural network (GRNN and Bayes' theorem. GRNN aims at detecting road friction coefficient under small excitations, which are the most common situations in daily driving. GRNN is able to accurately create a mapping from input parameters to the friction coefficient, avoiding storing an entire complex tire model. As for large excitations, the estimation algorithm is based on Bayes' theorem and a simplified "magic formula" tire model. The integrated estimation method is established by the combination of the above-mentioned estimators. Finally, the simulations based on a high-fidelity CarSim vehicle model are carried out on different road surfaces and driving maneuvers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method.

  2. Development of regional stump-to-mill logging cost estimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; John E. Baumgras

    1989-01-01

    Planning logging operations requires estimating the logging costs for the sale or tract being harvested. Decisions need to be made on equipment selection and its application to terrain. In this paper a methodology is described that has been developed and implemented to solve the problem of accurately estimating logging costs by region. The methodology blends field time...

  3. Development of fragility functions to estimate homelessness after an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brink, Susan A.; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    Immediately after an earthquake, many stakeholders need to make decisions about their response. These decisions often need to be made in a data poor environment as accurate information on the impact can take months or even years to be collected and publicized. Social fragility functions have been developed and applied to provide an estimate of the impact in terms of building damage, deaths and injuries in near real time. These rough estimates can help governments and response agencies determine what aid may be required which can improve their emergency response and facilitate planning for longer term response. Due to building damage, lifeline outages, fear of aftershocks, or other causes, people may become displaced or homeless after an earthquake. Especially in cold and dangerous locations, the rapid provision of safe emergency shelter can be a lifesaving necessity. However, immediately after an event there is little information available about the number of homeless, their locations and whether they require public shelter to aid the response agencies in decision making. In this research, we analyze homelessness after historic earthquakes using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database. CATDAT includes information on the hazard as well as the physical and social impact of over 7200 damaging earthquakes from 1900-2013 (Daniell et al. 2011). We explore the relationship of both earthquake characteristics and area characteristics with homelessness after the earthquake. We consider modelled variables such as population density, HDI, year, measures of ground motion intensity developed in Daniell (2014) over the time period from 1900-2013 as well as temperature. Using a base methodology based on that used for PAGER fatality fragility curves developed by Jaiswal and Wald (2010), but using regression through time using the socioeconomic parameters developed in Daniell et al. (2012) for "socioeconomic fragility functions", we develop a set of fragility curves that can be

  4. An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, F; Delpech, V; Albert, J

    2017-01-01

    were undiagnosed respectively. CONCLUSION: We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK......OBJECTIVE: Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account...... of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV...

  5. Development of calculation method for one-dimensional kinetic analysis in fission reactors, including feedback effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paixao, S.B.; Marzo, M.A.S.; Alvim, A.C.M.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation method used in WIGLE code is studied. Because of the non availability of such a praiseworthy solution, expounding the method minutely has been tried. This developed method has been applied for the solution of the one-dimensional, two-group, diffusion equations in slab, axial analysis, including non-boiling heat transfer, accountig for feedback. A steady-state program (CITER-1D), written in FORTRAN 4, has been implemented, providing excellent results, ratifying the developed work quality. (Author) [pt

  6. An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo

    2017-01-28

    Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account both in-country infections and infections likely to have been acquired abroad. Mathematical model calibrated to extensive data sources. An individual-based stochastic simulation model is used to calibrate to routinely collected surveillance data in the UK. Data on number of new HIV diagnoses, number of deaths, CD4 cell count at diagnosis, as well as time of arrival into the UK for migrants and the annual number of people receiving care were used. An estimated 106 400 (90% plausibility range: 88 700-124 600) people were living with HIV in the UK in 2013. Twenty-three percent of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV were undiagnosed respectively. We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK, there is still a substantial number of people who are not yet diagnosed and thus not in care.

  7. Using Copulas in the Estimation of the Economic Project Value in the Mining Industry, Including Geological Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krysa, Zbigniew; Pactwa, Katarzyna; Wozniak, Justyna; Dudek, Michal

    2017-12-01

    Geological variability is one of the main factors that has an influence on the viability of mining investment projects and on the technical risk of geology projects. In the current scenario, analyses of economic viability of new extraction fields have been performed for the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. underground copper mine at Fore Sudetic Monocline with the assumption of constant averaged content of useful elements. Research presented in this article is aimed at verifying the value of production from copper and silver ore for the same economic background with the use of variable cash flows resulting from the local variability of useful elements. Furthermore, the ore economic model is investigated for a significant difference in model value estimated with the use of linear correlation between useful elements content and the height of mine face, and the approach in which model parameters correlation is based upon the copula best matched information capacity criterion. The use of copula allows the simulation to take into account the multi variable dependencies at the same time, thereby giving a better reflection of the dependency structure, which linear correlation does not take into account. Calculation results of the economic model used for deposit value estimation indicate that the correlation between copper and silver estimated with the use of copula generates higher variation of possible project value, as compared to modelling correlation based upon linear correlation. Average deposit value remains unchanged.

  8. Development of a simple estimation tool for LMFBR construction cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Kazuo; Kinoshita, Izumi

    1999-01-01

    A simple tool for estimating the construction costs of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs), 'Simple Cost' was developed in this study. Simple Cost is based on a new estimation formula that can reduce the amount of design data required to estimate construction costs. Consequently, Simple cost can be used to estimate the construction costs of innovative LMFBR concepts for which detailed design has not been carried out. The results of test calculation show that Simple Cost provides cost estimations equivalent to those obtained with conventional methods within the range of plant power from 325 to 1500 MWe. Sensitivity analyses for typical design parameters were conducted using Simple Cost. The effects of four major parameters - reactor vessel diameter, core outlet temperature, sodium handling area and number of secondary loops - on the construction costs of LMFBRs were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the reduction of sodium handling area is particularly effective in reducing construction costs. (author)

  9. A statistical model for estimation of fish density including correlation in size, space, time and between species from research survey data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Rasmus Nielsen

    Full Text Available Trawl survey data with high spatial and seasonal coverage were analysed using a variant of the Log Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP statistical model to estimate unbiased relative fish densities. The model estimates correlations between observations according to time, space, and fish size and includes zero observations and over-dispersion. The model utilises the fact the correlation between numbers of fish caught increases when the distance in space and time between the fish decreases, and the correlation between size groups in a haul increases when the difference in size decreases. Here the model is extended in two ways. Instead of assuming a natural scale size correlation, the model is further developed to allow for a transformed length scale. Furthermore, in the present application, the spatial- and size-dependent correlation between species was included. For cod (Gadus morhua and whiting (Merlangius merlangus, a common structured size correlation was fitted, and a separable structure between the time and space-size correlation was found for each species, whereas more complex structures were required to describe the correlation between species (and space-size. The within-species time correlation is strong, whereas the correlations between the species are weaker over time but strong within the year.

  10. A statistical model for estimation of fish density including correlation in size, space, time and between species from research survey data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Kristensen, Kasper; Lewy, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Trawl survey data with high spatial and seasonal coverage were analysed using a variant of the Log Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) statistical model to estimate unbiased relative fish densities. The model estimates correlations between observations according to time, space, and fish size and includes...

  11. Estimation of hull girder vertical bending moments including non-linear and flexibility effects using closed form expressions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    A simple but rational procedure for prediction of extreme wave-induced hull girder bending moment is presented. The procedure takes into account main ship hull characteristics such as: length, breadth, draught, block coefficient, bow flare coefficient, forward speed and hull flexibility. The wave......-linear strip theory calculations and supplemented with new closed form results for the hogging bending moment. Focus is on the extreme hull girder hogging bending moment. Due to the few input parameters this procedure can be used to estimate the wave-induced bending moments at the conceptual design phase....... Another application area is for novel single hull ship types not presently covered by the rules of the classification societies. As one application example the container ship M/S Napoli is considered....

  12. The Watts-Strogatz network model developed by including degree distribution: theory and computer simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y W [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Zhang, L F [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Huang, J P [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)

    2007-07-20

    By using theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we develop the Watts-Strogatz network model by including degree distribution, in an attempt to improve the comparison between characteristic path lengths and clustering coefficients predicted by the original Watts-Strogatz network model and those of the real networks with the small-world property. Good agreement between the predictions of the theoretical analysis and those of the computer simulations has been shown. It is found that the developed Watts-Strogatz network model can fit the real small-world networks more satisfactorily. Some other interesting results are also reported by adjusting the parameters in a model degree-distribution function. The developed Watts-Strogatz network model is expected to help in the future analysis of various social problems as well as financial markets with the small-world property.

  13. The Watts-Strogatz network model developed by including degree distribution: theory and computer simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y W; Zhang, L F; Huang, J P

    2007-01-01

    By using theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we develop the Watts-Strogatz network model by including degree distribution, in an attempt to improve the comparison between characteristic path lengths and clustering coefficients predicted by the original Watts-Strogatz network model and those of the real networks with the small-world property. Good agreement between the predictions of the theoretical analysis and those of the computer simulations has been shown. It is found that the developed Watts-Strogatz network model can fit the real small-world networks more satisfactorily. Some other interesting results are also reported by adjusting the parameters in a model degree-distribution function. The developed Watts-Strogatz network model is expected to help in the future analysis of various social problems as well as financial markets with the small-world property

  14. A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF SOFTWARE PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Osmanbegović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software cost estimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

  15. Development of computer program for estimating decommissioning cost - 59037

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hak-Soo; Park, Jong-Kil

    2012-01-01

    The programs for estimating the decommissioning cost have been developed for many different purposes and applications. The estimation of decommissioning cost is required a large amount of data such as unit cost factors, plant area and its inventory, waste treatment, etc. These make it difficult to use manual calculation or typical spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel. The cost estimation for eventual decommissioning of nuclear power plants is a prerequisite for safe, timely and cost-effective decommissioning. To estimate the decommissioning cost more accurately and systematically, KHNP, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd, developed a decommissioning cost estimating computer program called 'DeCAT-Pro', which is Decommission-ing Cost Assessment Tool - Professional. (Hereinafter called 'DeCAT') This program allows users to easily assess the decommissioning cost with various decommissioning options. Also, this program provides detailed reporting for decommissioning funding requirements as well as providing detail project schedules, cash-flow, staffing plan and levels, and waste volumes by waste classifications and types. KHNP is planning to implement functions for estimating the plant inventory using 3-D technology and for classifying the conditions of radwaste disposal and transportation automatically. (authors)

  16. Revised stratigraphy of Area 123, Koobi Fora, Kenya, and new age estimates of its fossil mammals, including hominins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathogo, Patrick N; Brown, Francis H

    2006-11-01

    Recent geologic study shows that all hominins and nearly all other published mammalian fossils from Paleontological Collection Area 123, Koobi Fora, Kenya, derive from levels between the KBS Tuff (1.87+/-0.02 Ma) and the Lower Ileret Tuff (1.53+/-0.01 Ma). More specifically, the fossils derive from 53 m of section below the Lower Ileret Tuff, an interval in which beds vary markedly laterally, especially those units containing molluscs and algal stromatolites. The upper Burgi Member (approximately 2.00-1.87 Ma) crops out only in the southwestern part of Area 123. Adjacent Area 110 contains larger exposures of the member, and there the KBS Tuff is preserved as an airfall ash in lacustrine deposits and also as a fluvially redeposited ash. We observed no mammalian fossils in situ in this member in Area 123, but surface specimens have been documented in some monographic treatments. Fossil hominins from Area 123 were attributed to strata above the KBS Tuff in the 1970s, but later they were assigned to strata below the KBS Tuff (now called the upper Burgi Member). This study definitively places the Area 123 hominins in the KBS Member. Most of these hominins are between 1.60 and 1.65 myr in age, but the youngest may date to only 1.53 Ma, and the oldest, to 1.75 Ma. All are 0.15-0.30 myr younger than previously estimated. The new age estimates, in conjunction with published taxonomic attributions of fossils, suggest that at least two species of Homo coexisted in the region along with A. boisei until at least 1.65 Ma. Comparison of crania KNM-ER 1813 and KNM-ER 1470, which were believed to be of comparable age, is at the focus of the debate over whether Homo habilis sensu lato is in fact composed of two species: Homo habilis and Homo rudolfensis. These two crania are separated in time by approximately 0.25 myr, and therefore, arguments for their conspecificity no longer need to confront the issue of unusually high contemporaneous variation within a single species.

  17. Health effects estimation code development for accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togawa, O.; Homma, T.

    1992-01-01

    As part of a computer code system for nuclear reactor accident consequence analysis, two computer codes have been developed for estimating health effects expected to occur following an accident. Health effects models used in the codes are based on the models of NUREG/CR-4214 and are revised for the Japanese population on the basis of the data from the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry and information derived from epidemiological studies on atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The health effects models include early and continuing effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects. The values of some model parameters are revised for early mortality. The models are modified for predicting late somatic effects such as leukemia and various kinds of cancers. The models for genetic effects are the same as those of NUREG. In order to test the performance of one of these codes, it is applied to the U.S. and Japanese populations. This paper provides descriptions of health effects models used in the two codes and gives comparisons of the mortality risks from each type of cancer for the two populations. (author)

  18. Western Saudi adolescent age estimation utilising third molar development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshihri, Amin M; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to establish reference data on third molar morphology/development for age estimation in Western Saudi adolescents, between ages 14 and 23 years of old. The orthopantomograms of 130 individuals (males and females), were examined, and the stage of third molar development were evaluated. Mean ages, standard deviations, and percentile distributions are presented for each stage of development. The mean estimated age for all participants (n = 130) was 219.7 months, and this differed significantly (P age (226.5 months). Deviations of predicted age from real age showed 28.5% of all participants had their age estimated within 1 year (±12 months) of their chronological age. Most (43%) had their age underestimated by more than 12 months and the remaining 28.5% had their age overestimated by more than 12 months of their chronological age. Differences in left-right symmetry information of third molars were detected and were higher in the maxilla (92%) than in the mandible (82%). For all molars reaching stage "H" most individuals (males and females) were over the age 18 years of old. Males reach the developmental stages earlier than females. Third molar tooth development can be reliably used to generate mean age and the estimated age range for an individual of unknown chronological age. Further studies with large populations are needed for better statistical results.

  19. Loss of life estimation-Review, developments and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Maaskant, B.; Kolen, B.; Needham, J. T Jason

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the

  20. An Approach to Quality Estimation in Model-Based Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmegaard, Jens Peter; Koch, Peter; Ravn, Anders Peter

    2004-01-01

    We present an approach to estimation of parameters for design space exploration in Model-Based Development, where synthesis of a system is done in two stages. Component qualities like space, execution time or power consumption are defined in a repository by platform dependent values. Connectors...

  1. Development of radioactivity estimation system considering radioactive nuclide movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukumura, Nobuo; Miyamoto, Yoshiaki

    2010-01-01

    A radioactivity estimation system considering radioactive nuclide movement is developed to integrate the established codes and the code system for decommissioning of sodium cooled fast reactor (FBR). The former are the codes for estimation of radioactivity movement in sodium coolant of fast reactor which are named SAFFIRE, PSYCHE and TTT. The latter code system is to estimate neutron irradiation activity (COSMARD-RRADO). It is paid special attention to keep the consistency of input data used among these codes and also the simplification of their interface. A new function is added to the estimation system, to estimate minor FP inventory caused by the fission of impurities contained in the coolant and slight fuel material attached on the fuel cladding. To check the evaluation system, the system is applied with radioactivity data of the preceding FBR such as BN-350, JOYO and Monju. Agreement between the analysis results and the measurement is well satisfactory. The uncertainty of the code system is within several tens per cent for the activation of primary coolant (Na-22) and factor of 2-4 for the estimation of radioactivity inventory in sodium coolant. (author)

  2. International collaboration including patients is essential to develop new therapies for patients with myositis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundberg, Ingrid E; Vencovsky, Jiri

    2017-05-01

    To discuss the needs for international collaborations between investigators in different disciplines working with myositis and with patients with myositis. Recent advances in detection of several myositis-specific autoantibodies that are associated with distinct clinical phenotypes, will enable studies in new well defined clinically homogenous subgroups of myositis This is likely to lead to development of new information on molecular pathogenesis that might be different in different myositis subgroups. Subgrouping patients according to autoantibody profile may also be important to assess outcome, to identify prognostic biomarkers and in clinical trials. As these are rare disorders international collaboration is essential to enrol large enough cohorts of the subgroups. To facilitate such collaboration we have developed a web-based international myositis register, www.euromyositis.eu, which includes validated outcome measures and patient reported outcome measures. This register is to support research but also to support decision-making in the clinic. We welcome investigators to join the Euromyositis register. Myositis is a heterogeneous disorder with varying treatment response and outcome. There is a high unmet need for new therapies which can only be achieved by increased knowledge on molecular disease mechanisms. Subgrouping patients according to autoantibody profile may be a new way forward to get a better understanding on disease mechanisms and to develop novel therapies.

  3. Unsaturated Seepage Analysis of Cracked Soil including Development Process of Cracks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Cao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cracks in soil provide preferential pathways for water flow and their morphological parameters significantly affect the hydraulic conductivity of the soil. To study the hydraulic properties of cracks, the dynamic development of cracks in the expansive soil during drying and wetting has been measured in the laboratory. The test results enable the development of the relationships between the cracks morphological parameters and the water content. In this study, the fractal model has been used to predict the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC of the cracked soil, including the developmental process of the cracks. The cracked expansive soil has been considered as a crack-pore medium. A dual media flow model has been developed to simulate the seepage characteristics of the cracked expansive soil. The variations in pore water pressure at different part of the model are quite different due to the impact of the cracks. This study proves that seepage characteristics can be better predicted if the impact of cracks is taken into account.

  4. Supermarket revolution in Asia and emerging development strategies to include small farmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reardon, Thomas; Timmer, C Peter; Minten, Bart

    2012-07-31

    A "supermarket revolution" has occurred in developing countries in the past 2 decades. We focus on three specific issues that reflect the impact of this revolution, particularly in Asia: continuity in transformation, innovation in transformation, and unique development strategies. First, the record shows that the rapid growth observed in the early 2000s in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand has continued, and the "newcomers"--India and Vietnam--have grown even faster. Although foreign direct investment has been important, the roles of domestic conglomerates and even state investment have been significant and unique. Second, Asia's supermarket revolution has exhibited unique pathways of retail diffusion and procurement system change. There has been "precocious" penetration of rural towns by rural supermarkets and rural business hubs, emergence of penetration of fresh produce retail that took much longer to initiate in other regions, and emergence of Asian retail developing-country multinational chains. In procurement, a symbiosis between modern retail and the emerging and consolidating modern food processing and logistics sectors has arisen. Third, several approaches are being tried to link small farmers to supermarkets. Some are unique to Asia, for example assembling into a "hub" or "platform" or "park" the various companies and services that link farmers to modern markets. Other approaches relatively new to Asia are found elsewhere, especially in Latin America, including "bringing modern markets to farmers" by establishing collection centers and multipronged collection cum service provision arrangements, and forming market cooperatives and farmer companies to help small farmers access supermarkets.

  5. Development of Reference Equations of State for Refrigerant Mixtures Including Hydrocarbons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyamoto, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Koichi

    In recent years, most accurate equations of state for alternative refrigerants and their mixtures can easily be used via convenient software package, e.g., REFPROP. In the present paper, we described the current state-of-the-art equations of state for refrigerant mixtures including hydrocarbons as components. Throughout our discussion, the limitation of the available experimental data and the necessity of the improvement against the arbitrary fitting of recent modeling were confirmed. The enough number of reliable experimental data, especially for properties in the higher pressures and temperatures and for derived properties, should be accumulated in the near future for the development of the physically-sound theoretical background. The present review argued about the possibility of the progress for the future thermodynamic property modeling throughout the detailed discussion regarding the several types of the equations of state as well as the recent innovative measurement technique.

  6. Economic assessment of S-prism including development and generating costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boardman, Ch.E. [GE Nuclear Energy San Jose (United States)

    2001-07-01

    S-PRISM is an advanced Fast Reactor plant design that utilizes compact modular pool-type reactors sized to enable factory fabrication and an affordable prototype test of a single Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) for design certification at minimum cost and risk. S-PRISM retains all of the key ALMR (advanced liquid metal reactor) design features including passive reactor shutdown, passive shutdown heat removal, and passive reactor cavity cooling that were developed under an earlier DOE program. Key factors that make S-PRISM competitive include: 1) The use of passive safety systems that eliminate the need for diesel generators and hardened active heat sinks to assure that sufficient heat is removed from the core, reactor, and containment systems following design and beyond design basis events. 2) A seven point advantage in the plant capacity factor (93 versus 86%) over a single large plant. 3) A much shorter construction schedule (45%) made possible by a modular design that allows near parallel (sequenced) construction of three relatively small, simple factory fabricated NSSSs instead of one large complex NSSS. This paper describes the approach, methods, and results of an in-depth economic assessment of S-PRISM. The assessment found that the generation cost from an NOAK plant would be less than 3 cents/kW-hr and that a design certification could be obtained in less than 15 years at a cost of 2.1 billion dollars. (authors)

  7. Development process of muzzle flows including a gun-launched missile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuo Changfei

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Numerical investigations on the launch process of a gun-launched missile from the muzzle of a cannon to the free-flight stage have been performed in this paper. The dynamic overlapped grids approach are applied to dealing with the problems of a moving gun-launched missile. The high-resolution upwind scheme (AUSMPW+ and the detailed reaction kinetics model are adopted to solve the chemical non-equilibrium Euler equations for dynamic grids. The development process and flow field structure of muzzle flows including a gun-launched missile are discussed in detail. This present numerical study confirms that complicated transient phenomena exist in the shortly launching stages when the gun-launched missile moves from the muzzle of a cannon to the free-flight stage. The propellant gas flows, the initial environmental ambient air flows and the moving missile mutually couple and interact. A complete structure of flow field is formed at the launching stages, including the blast wave, base shock, reflected shock, incident shock, shear layer, primary vortex ring and triple point.

  8. Economic assessment of S-prism including development and generating costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boardman, Ch.E.

    2001-01-01

    S-PRISM is an advanced Fast Reactor plant design that utilizes compact modular pool-type reactors sized to enable factory fabrication and an affordable prototype test of a single Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) for design certification at minimum cost and risk. S-PRISM retains all of the key ALMR (advanced liquid metal reactor) design features including passive reactor shutdown, passive shutdown heat removal, and passive reactor cavity cooling that were developed under an earlier DOE program. Key factors that make S-PRISM competitive include: 1) The use of passive safety systems that eliminate the need for diesel generators and hardened active heat sinks to assure that sufficient heat is removed from the core, reactor, and containment systems following design and beyond design basis events. 2) A seven point advantage in the plant capacity factor (93 versus 86%) over a single large plant. 3) A much shorter construction schedule (45%) made possible by a modular design that allows near parallel (sequenced) construction of three relatively small, simple factory fabricated NSSSs instead of one large complex NSSS. This paper describes the approach, methods, and results of an in-depth economic assessment of S-PRISM. The assessment found that the generation cost from an NOAK plant would be less than 3 cents/kW-hr and that a design certification could be obtained in less than 15 years at a cost of 2.1 billion dollars. (authors)

  9. Best estimate radiation heat transfer model developed for TRAC-BD1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spore, J.W.; Giles, M.M.; Shumway, R.W.

    1981-01-01

    A best estimate radiation heat transfer model for analysis of BWR fuel bundles has been developed and compared with 8 x 8 fuel bundle data. The model includes surface-to-surface and surface-to-two-phase fluid radiation heat transfer. A simple method of correcting for anisotropic reflection effects has been included in the model

  10. Development method of Hybrid Energy Storage System, including PEM fuel cell and a battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ustinov, A; Khayrullina, A; Khmelik, M; Sveshnikova, A; Borzenko, V

    2016-01-01

    Development of fuel cell (FC) and hydrogen metal-hydride storage (MH) technologies continuously demonstrate higher efficiency rates and higher safety, as hydrogen is stored at low pressures of about 2 bar in a bounded state. A combination of a FC/MH system with an electrolyser, powered with a renewable source, allows creation of an almost fully autonomous power system, which could potentially replace a diesel-generator as a back-up power supply. However, the system must be extended with an electro-chemical battery to start-up the FC and compensate the electric load when FC fails to deliver the necessary power. Present paper delivers the results of experimental and theoretical investigation of a hybrid energy system, including a proton exchange membrane (PEM) FC, MH- accumulator and an electro-chemical battery, development methodology for such systems and the modelling of different battery types, using hardware-in-the-loop approach. The economic efficiency of the proposed solution is discussed using an example of power supply of a real town of Batamai in Russia. (paper)

  11. Development method of Hybrid Energy Storage System, including PEM fuel cell and a battery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ustinov, A.; Khayrullina, A.; Borzenko, V.; Khmelik, M.; Sveshnikova, A.

    2016-09-01

    Development of fuel cell (FC) and hydrogen metal-hydride storage (MH) technologies continuously demonstrate higher efficiency rates and higher safety, as hydrogen is stored at low pressures of about 2 bar in a bounded state. A combination of a FC/MH system with an electrolyser, powered with a renewable source, allows creation of an almost fully autonomous power system, which could potentially replace a diesel-generator as a back-up power supply. However, the system must be extended with an electro-chemical battery to start-up the FC and compensate the electric load when FC fails to deliver the necessary power. Present paper delivers the results of experimental and theoretical investigation of a hybrid energy system, including a proton exchange membrane (PEM) FC, MH- accumulator and an electro-chemical battery, development methodology for such systems and the modelling of different battery types, using hardware-in-the-loop approach. The economic efficiency of the proposed solution is discussed using an example of power supply of a real town of Batamai in Russia.

  12. Best-estimate analysis development for BWR systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutherland, W.A.; Alamgir, M.; Kalra, S.P.; Beckner, W.D.

    1986-01-01

    The Full Integral Simulation Test (FIST) Program is a three pronged approach to the development of best-estimate analysis capability for BWR systems. An experimental program in the FIST BWR system simulator facility extends the LOCA data base and adds operational transients data. An analytical method development program with the BWR-TRAC computer program extends the modeling of BWR specific components and major interfacing systems, and improves numerical techniques to reduce computer running time. A method qualification program tests TRAC-B against experiments run in the FIST facility and extends the results to reactor system applications. With the completion and integration of these three activities, the objective of a best-estimate analysis capability has been achieved. (author)

  13. Estimation of paddy water temperature during crop development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Centeno, H.G.S.; Horie, T.

    1996-01-01

    The crop meristem is in direct contact with paddy water during crop's vegetative stage. Ambient air temperature becomes an important factor in crop development only when internodes elongate sufficiently for the meristem to rise above the water surface. This does not occur until after panicle initiation. Crop growth at vegetative stage is affected more by water temperature than the most commonly measured air temperature. During transplanting in 1992 dry season, the maximum paddy water temperature was 10 deg C higher than the maximum air temperature. For rice crop models, the development of a submodel to estimate water temperature is important to account the effect of paddy water temperature on plant growth. Paddy water temperature is estimated from mean air temperature, solar radiation, and crop canopy. The parameters of the model were derived using the simplex method on data from the 1993 wet- and dry-season field experiments at IRRI

  14. Development of an integrated system for estimating human error probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auflick, J.L.; Hahn, H.A.; Morzinski, J.A.

    1998-12-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). This project had as its main objective the development of a Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), knowledge-based expert system that would provide probabilistic estimates for potential human errors within various risk assessments, safety analysis reports, and hazard assessments. HRA identifies where human errors are most likely, estimates the error rate for individual tasks, and highlights the most beneficial areas for system improvements. This project accomplished three major tasks. First, several prominent HRA techniques and associated databases were collected and translated into an electronic format. Next, the project started a knowledge engineering phase where the expertise, i.e., the procedural rules and data, were extracted from those techniques and compiled into various modules. Finally, these modules, rules, and data were combined into a nearly complete HRA expert system.

  15. High-performance control of a three-phase voltage-source converter including feedforward compensation of the estimated load current

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leon, Andres E.; Solsona, Jorge A.; Busada, Claudio; Chiacchiarini, Hector; Valla, Maria Ines

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a new control strategy for voltage-source converters (VSC) is introduced. The proposed strategy consists of a nonlinear feedback controller based on feedback linearization plus a feedforward compensation of the estimated load current. In our proposal an energy function and the direct-axis current are considered as outputs, in order to avoid the internal dynamics. In this way, a full linearization is obtained via nonlinear transformation and feedback. An estimate of the load current is feedforwarded to improve the performance of the whole system and to diminish the capacitor size. This estimation allows to obtain a more rugged and cheaper implementation. The estimate is calculated by using a nonlinear reduced-order observer. The proposal is validated through different tests. These tests include performance in presence of switching frequency, measurement filters delays, parameters uncertainties and disturbances in the input voltage.

  16. Professional Development for Researchers in Solid Earth Science Evolved to Include Scientific and Educational Content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, S. C.; Arrowsmith, R.; Olds, S. E.

    2011-12-01

    Integrated measures of crustal deformation provide valuable insight about tectonic and human-induced processes for scientists and educators alike. UNAVCO in conjunction with EarthScope initiated a series of short courses for researchers to learn the processing and interpretation of data from new technologies such as high precision GPS, Strainmeter, InSar and LiDAR that provide deformation information relevant to many geoscience sub-disciplines. Intensive short courses of a few days and the widespread availability of processed data through large projects such as EarthScope and GEON enable more geoscientists to incorporate these data into diverse projects. Characteristics of the UNAVCO Short Course Series, reaching over 400 participants since 2005, include having short course faculty who have pioneered development of each technology; open web-access to course materials; processing software installed on class-ready computers; no course fees; scholarships for students, post-doctoral fellows, and emerging faculty when needed; formative evaluation of the courses; community-based decisions on topics; and recruitment of participants across relevant geoscience disciplines. In 2009, when EarthScope airborne LiDAR data became available to the public through OpenTopographhy, teaching materials were provided to these researchers to incorporate the latest technologies into teaching. Multiple data sets across technologies have been developed with instructions on how to access the various data sets and incorporate them into geological problem sets. Courses in GPS, airborne LiDAR, strainmeter, and InSAR concentrate on data processing with examples of various geoscience applications. Ground-based LiDAR courses also include data acquisition. Google Earth is used to integrate various forms of data in educational applications. Various types of EarthScope data can now be used by a variety of geoscientists, and the number of scientists who have the skills and tools to use these various

  17. Applicability of bioanalysis of multiple analytes in drug discovery and development: review of select case studies including assay development considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R

    2006-05-01

    The development of sound bioanalytical method(s) is of paramount importance during the process of drug discovery and development culminating in a marketing approval. Although the bioanalytical procedure(s) originally developed during the discovery stage may not necessarily be fit to support the drug development scenario, they may be suitably modified and validated, as deemed necessary. Several reviews have appeared over the years describing analytical approaches including various techniques, detection systems, automation tools that are available for an effective separation, enhanced selectivity and sensitivity for quantitation of many analytes. The intention of this review is to cover various key areas where analytical method development becomes necessary during different stages of drug discovery research and development process. The key areas covered in this article with relevant case studies include: (a) simultaneous assay for parent compound and metabolites that are purported to display pharmacological activity; (b) bioanalytical procedures for determination of multiple drugs in combating a disease; (c) analytical measurement of chirality aspects in the pharmacokinetics, metabolism and biotransformation investigations; (d) drug monitoring for therapeutic benefits and/or occupational hazard; (e) analysis of drugs from complex and/or less frequently used matrices; (f) analytical determination during in vitro experiments (metabolism and permeability related) and in situ intestinal perfusion experiments; (g) determination of a major metabolite as a surrogate for the parent molecule; (h) analytical approaches for universal determination of CYP450 probe substrates and metabolites; (i) analytical applicability to prodrug evaluations-simultaneous determination of prodrug, parent and metabolites; (j) quantitative determination of parent compound and/or phase II metabolite(s) via direct or indirect approaches; (k) applicability in analysis of multiple compounds in select

  18. Gene expression during blow fly development: improving the precision of age estimates in forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarone, Aaron M; Foran, David R

    2011-01-01

    Forensic entomologists use size and developmental stage to estimate blow fly age, and from those, a postmortem interval. Since such estimates are generally accurate but often lack precision, particularly in the older developmental stages, alternative aging methods would be advantageous. Presented here is a means of incorporating developmentally regulated gene expression levels into traditional stage and size data, with a goal of more precisely estimating developmental age of immature Lucilia sericata. Generalized additive models of development showed improved statistical support compared to models that did not include gene expression data, resulting in an increase in estimate precision, especially for postfeeding third instars and pupae. The models were then used to make blind estimates of development for 86 immature L. sericata raised on rat carcasses. Overall, inclusion of gene expression data resulted in increased precision in aging blow flies. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  19. Method for developing cost estimates for generic regulatory requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The NRC has established a practice of performing regulatory analyses, reflecting costs as well as benefits, of proposed new or revised generic requirements. A method had been developed to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required for this purpose and for assigning priorities in the resolution of generic safety issues. The cost of a generic requirement is defined as the net present value of total lifetime cost incurred by the public, industry, and government in implementing the requirement for all affected plants. The method described here is for commercial light-water-reactor power plants. Estimating the cost for a generic requirement involves several steps: (1) identifying the activities that must be carried out to fully implement the requirement, (2) defining the work packages associated with the major activities, (3) identifying the individual elements of cost for each work package, (4) estimating the magnitude of each cost element, (5) aggregating individual plant costs over the plant lifetime, and (6) aggregating all plant costs and generic costs to produce a total, national, present value of lifetime cost for the requirement. The method developed addresses all six steps. In this paper, we discuss on the first three

  20. Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Yorobe, Jose; Husin, Bahagiawati Amir; Manalo, Abraham; Lokollo, Erna; Ramon, Godfrey; Zambrano, Patricia; Sutrisno

    2012-01-01

    Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US $100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

  1. Global warming potential estimates for the C1-C3 hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) included in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papanastasiou, Dimitrios K.; Beltrone, Allison; Marshall, Paul; Burkholder, James B.

    2018-05-01

    Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases that are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, the majority of the 274 HCFCs included in Annex C of the protocol do not have reported global warming potentials (GWPs) which are used to guide the phaseout of HCFCs and the future phase down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In this study, GWPs for all C1-C3 HCFCs included in Annex C are reported based on estimated atmospheric lifetimes and theoretical methods used to calculate infrared absorption spectra. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated from a structure activity relationship (SAR) for OH radical reactivity and estimated O(1D) reactivity and UV photolysis loss processes. The C1-C3 HCFCs display a wide range of lifetimes (0.3 to 62 years) and GWPs (5 to 5330, 100-year time horizon) dependent on their molecular structure and the H-atom content of the individual HCFC. The results from this study provide estimated policy-relevant GWP metrics for the HCFCs included in the Montreal Protocol in the absence of experimentally derived metrics.

  2. WILDFIRE IGNITION RESISTANCE ESTIMATOR WIZARD SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT REPORT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, M.; Robinson, C.; Gupta, N.; Werth, D.

    2012-10-10

    This report describes the development of a software tool, entitled “WildFire Ignition Resistance Estimator Wizard” (WildFIRE Wizard, Version 2.10). This software was developed within the Wildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program, sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Infrastructure Protection & Disaster Management Division. WildFIRE Wizard is a tool that enables homeowners to take preventive actions that will reduce their home’s vulnerability to wildfire ignition sources (i.e., embers, radiant heat, and direct flame impingement) well in advance of a wildfire event. This report describes the development of the software, its operation, its technical basis and calculations, and steps taken to verify its performance.

  3. Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, E.W.

    1983-01-01

    Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

  4. Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

    1984-10-01

    This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook

  5. Quantitative PET Imaging in Drug Development: Estimation of Target Occupancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naganawa, Mika; Gallezot, Jean-Dominique; Rossano, Samantha; Carson, Richard E

    2017-12-11

    Positron emission tomography, an imaging tool using radiolabeled tracers in humans and preclinical species, has been widely used in recent years in drug development, particularly in the central nervous system. One important goal of PET in drug development is assessing the occupancy of various molecular targets (e.g., receptors, transporters, enzymes) by exogenous drugs. The current linear mathematical approaches used to determine occupancy using PET imaging experiments are presented. These algorithms use results from multiple regions with different target content in two scans, a baseline (pre-drug) scan and a post-drug scan. New mathematical estimation approaches to determine target occupancy, using maximum likelihood, are presented. A major challenge in these methods is the proper definition of the covariance matrix of the regional binding measures, accounting for different variance of the individual regional measures and their nonzero covariance, factors that have been ignored by conventional methods. The novel methods are compared to standard methods using simulation and real human occupancy data. The simulation data showed the expected reduction in variance and bias using the proper maximum likelihood methods, when the assumptions of the estimation method matched those in simulation. Between-method differences for data from human occupancy studies were less obvious, in part due to small dataset sizes. These maximum likelihood methods form the basis for development of improved PET covariance models, in order to minimize bias and variance in PET occupancy studies.

  6. Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ale, B.J.M.; Van Gulijk, C.; Hanea, D.M.; Hudson, P.; Lin, P.H.; Sillem, S.; Steenhoek, M.; Ababei, D.

    2013-01-01

    An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A

  7. Estimating the economic effects of cystic echinococcosis: Uruguay, a developing country with upper-middle income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torgerson, P R; Carmona, C; Bonifacino, R

    2000-10-01

    Cost-benefit analyses, run before the commencement of a programme to control a parasitic disease, should include estimates of the economic losses attributable to the disease. Uruguay, a middle-income, developing country, has a recent history of persistent problems with cystic echinococcosis, in both its human population and livestock. The economic effects in Uruguay of this disease, caused by the larval stage of the canine tapeworm Echinococcus granulosus, have now been evaluated. Data on the incidence of the disease, in humans and livestock, were used to construct cost estimates. The estimated minimum cost (U.S.$2.9 million/year) was based on the condemnation costs of infected offal together with the actual costs of the hospital treatment of the human cases. The estimate of the maximum cost (U.S.$22.1 million/year) also included the production losses resulting from lower livestock efficiency and the reduced income of individuals with morbidity attributable to the disease.

  8. New developments in state estimation for Nonlinear Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Ravn, Ole

    2000-01-01

    Based on an interpolation formula, accurate state estimators for nonlinear systems can be derived. The estimators do not require derivative information which makes them simple to implement.; State estimators for nonlinear systems are derived based on polynomial approximations obtained with a mult......-known estimators, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and its higher-order relatives, in most practical applications....

  9. Use of Student Experiments for Teaching Embedded Software Development Including HW/SW Co-Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsui, H.; Kambe, H.; Koizumi, H.

    2009-01-01

    Embedded systems have been applied widely, not only to consumer products and industrial machines, but also to new applications such as ubiquitous or sensor networking. The increasing role of software (SW) in embedded system development has caused a great demand for embedded SW engineers, and university education for embedded SW engineering has…

  10. Development of numerical dispersion model for radioactive nuclei including resuspension processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiba, Masaru; Kurita, Susumu; Sasaki, Hidetaka

    2003-01-01

    Global-scale and local-scale dispersion model are developed combining to global and local scale meteorological forecasting model. By applying this system to another miner constituent such as mineral dust blowing by strong wind in arid region, this system shows very good performance to watch and predict the distribution of it. (author)

  11. Optimization of the weekly operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric development, including a pumped storage plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popa, R; Popa, B; Popa, F; Zachia-Zlatea, D

    2010-01-01

    It is presented an optimization model based on genetic algorithms for the operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric power development consisting in a pumped storage plant (PSP) with weekly operation cycle. The lower reservoir of the PSP is supplied upstream from a peak hydropower plant (HPP) with a large reservoir and supplies the own HPP which provides the required discharges towards downstream. Under these conditions, the optimum operation of the assembly consisting in 3 reservoirs and hydropower plants becomes a difficult problem if there are considered the restrictions as regards: the gradients allowed for the reservoirs filling/emptying, compliance with of a long-term policy of the upper reservoir from the hydroelectric development and of the weekly cycle for the PSP upper reservoir, correspondence between the power output/consumption in the weekly load schedule, turning to account of the water resource at maximum overall efficiencies, etc. Maximization of the net energy value (generated minus consumed) was selected as performance function of the model, considering the differentiated price of the electric energy over the week (working or weekend days, peak, half-peak or base hours). The analysis time step was required to be of 3 hours, resulting a weekly horizon of 56 steps and 168 decision variables, respectively, for the 3 HPPs of the system. These were allowed to be the flows turbined at the HPP and the number of working hydrounits at PSP, on each time step. The numerical application has considered the guiding data of Fantanele-Tarnita-Lapustesti hydroelectric development. Results of various simulations carried out proved the qualities of the proposed optimization model, which will allow its use within a decisional support program for such a development.

  12. DEVELOPMENT OF A VIRTUAL MUSEUM INCLUDING A 4D PRESENTATION OF BUILDING HISTORY IN VIRTUAL REALITY

    OpenAIRE

    T. P. Kersten; F. Tschirschwitz; S. Deggim

    2017-01-01

    In the last two decades the definition of the term “virtual museum” changed due to rapid technological developments. Using today’s available 3D technologies a virtual museum is no longer just a presentation of collections on the Internet or a virtual tour of an exhibition using panoramic photography. On one hand, a virtual museum should enhance a museum visitor's experience by providing access to additional materials for review and knowledge deepening either before or after the real ...

  13. Optimization of the weekly operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric development, including a pumped storage plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Popa, R; Popa, B [Faculty of Power Engineering, University Politehnica of Bucharest, 313 Spl. Independentei, sect. 6, Bucharest, 060042 (Romania); Popa, F [Institute for Hydropower Studies and Design, 5-7 Vasile Lascar, sect. 2, Bucharest, 020491 (Romania); Zachia-Zlatea, D, E-mail: bogdan.popa@rosha.r [Hidroelectrica S.A., 3 Constantin Nacu, sect. 2, Bucharest, 020995 (Romania)

    2010-08-15

    It is presented an optimization model based on genetic algorithms for the operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric power development consisting in a pumped storage plant (PSP) with weekly operation cycle. The lower reservoir of the PSP is supplied upstream from a peak hydropower plant (HPP) with a large reservoir and supplies the own HPP which provides the required discharges towards downstream. Under these conditions, the optimum operation of the assembly consisting in 3 reservoirs and hydropower plants becomes a difficult problem if there are considered the restrictions as regards: the gradients allowed for the reservoirs filling/emptying, compliance with of a long-term policy of the upper reservoir from the hydroelectric development and of the weekly cycle for the PSP upper reservoir, correspondence between the power output/consumption in the weekly load schedule, turning to account of the water resource at maximum overall efficiencies, etc. Maximization of the net energy value (generated minus consumed) was selected as performance function of the model, considering the differentiated price of the electric energy over the week (working or weekend days, peak, half-peak or base hours). The analysis time step was required to be of 3 hours, resulting a weekly horizon of 56 steps and 168 decision variables, respectively, for the 3 HPPs of the system. These were allowed to be the flows turbined at the HPP and the number of working hydrounits at PSP, on each time step. The numerical application has considered the guiding data of Fantanele-Tarnita-Lapustesti hydroelectric development. Results of various simulations carried out proved the qualities of the proposed optimization model, which will allow its use within a decisional support program for such a development.

  14. Human age estimation combining third molar and skeletal development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Kaur, J; Willems, G

    2012-03-01

    The wide prediction intervals obtained with age estimation methods based on third molar development could be reduced by combining these dental observations with age-related skeletal information. Therefore, on cephalometric radiographs, the most accurate age-estimating skeletal variable and related registration method were searched and added to a regression model, with age as response and third molar stages as explanatory variable. In a pilot set up on a dataset of 496 (283 M; 213 F) cephalometric radiographs, the techniques of Baccetti et al. (2005) (BA), Seedat et al. (2005) (SE), Caldas et al. (2007) and Rai et al. (2008) (RA) were verified. In the main study, data from 460 (208 F, 224 M) individuals in an age range between 3 and 26 years, for which at the same day an orthopantogram and a cephalogram were taken, were collected. On the orthopantomograms, the left third molar development was registered using the scoring system described by Gleiser and Hunt (1955) and modified by Köhler (1994) (GH). On the cephalograms, cervical vertebrae development was registered according to the BA and SE techniques. A regression model, with age as response and the GH scores as explanatory variable, was fitted to the data. Next, information of BA, SE and BA + SE was, respectively, added to this model. From all obtained models, the determination coefficients and the root mean squared errors were calculated. Inclusion of information from cephalograms based on the BA, as well as the SE, technique improved the amount of explained variance in age acquired from panoramic radiographs using the GH technique with 48%. Inclusion of cephalometric BA + SE information marginally improved the previous result (+1%). The RMSE decreased with 1.93, 1.85 and 2.03 years by adding, respectively, BA, SE and BA + SE information to the GH model. The SE technique allows clinically the fastest and easiest registration of the degree of development of the cervical vertebrae. Therefore, the choice of

  15. Development process of muzzle flows including a gun-launched missile

    OpenAIRE

    Zhuo Changfei; Feng Feng; Wu Xiaosong

    2015-01-01

    Numerical investigations on the launch process of a gun-launched missile from the muzzle of a cannon to the free-flight stage have been performed in this paper. The dynamic overlapped grids approach are applied to dealing with the problems of a moving gun-launched missile. The high-resolution upwind scheme (AUSMPW+) and the detailed reaction kinetics model are adopted to solve the chemical non-equilibrium Euler equations for dynamic grids. The development process and flow field structure of m...

  16. Development of a quantitative safety assessment method for nuclear I and C systems including human operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol

    2004-02-01

    Conventional PSA (probabilistic safety analysis) is performed in the framework of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. In conventional PSA, I and C systems and human operators are assumed to be independent for simplicity. But, the dependency of human operators on I and C systems and the dependency of I and C systems on human operators are gradually recognized to be significant. I believe that it is time to consider the interdependency between I and C systems and human operators in the framework of PSA. But, unfortunately it seems that we do not have appropriate methods for incorporating the interdependency between I and C systems and human operators in the framework of Pasa. Conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are not developed to consider the interdependecy, and the modeling of the interdependency using conventional event tree analysis and fault tree analysis seem to be, event though is does not seem to be impossible, quite complex. To incorporate the interdependency between I and C systems and human operators, we need a new method for HRA and a new method for modeling the I and C systems, man-machine interface (MMI), and human operators for quantitative safety assessment. As a new method for modeling the I and C systems, MMI and human operators, I develop a new system reliability analysis method, reliability graph with general gates (RGGG), which can substitute conventional fault tree analysis. RGGG is an intuitive and easy-to-use method for system reliability analysis, while as powerful as conventional fault tree analysis. To demonstrate the usefulness of the RGGG method, it is applied to the reliability analysis of Digital Plant Protection System (DPPS), which is the actual plant protection system of Ulchin 5 and 6 nuclear power plants located in Republic of Korea. The latest version of the fault tree for DPPS, which is developed by the Integrated Safety Assessment team in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), consists of 64

  17. Projects of SR sources including research and development for insertion devices in the USSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulipanov, G.

    1990-01-01

    Some technical information on the electron and positron storage rings - SR sources that are being constructed, used or developed at the Novosibirsk Institute of Nuclear Physics (INP), is given. The parameters and construction of wigglers and undulators (electromagnetic, superconducting, and based on permanent magnets) that are intended to be used at such storage rings are described. Various schemes of installation of wigglers, undulators and FEL at storage rings is considered. The ways of minimizing the influence of their magnetic fields on particle motion in storage rings are treated. (author)

  18. Tell me your life: including life stories in an adult development and aging course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villar, Feliciano; Celdran, Montserrat; Fabà, Josep

    2014-01-01

    The goals of this study were to determine the learning impact of an assignment that consisted of interviewing and analyzing older people's life stories, and to explore how the assignment was evaluated by students. Participants in the study were 122 first-year social education students enrolled in an adult development and aging course. They evaluated the assignment using an eight-adjective questionnaire and were asked about the benefits of the task. Their answers to the questionnaire were then reviewed using content analysis. The results indicated that marks on the life story assignment predicted marks on an exam about basic course concepts. Students considered that the assignment was interesting, useful, and integrated into the course, although most of them also thought that it was very time-consuming. They identified benefits related to the explicit goals of the course (improvement in the learning of developmental concepts, the acquisition of research-related skills, and the deactivation of aging stereotypes) and personal, growth-related benefits. The authors discuss the difficulties posed by the assignment and its usefulness as a complement to more traditional, lecture-based teaching methods in adult development and aging courses.

  19. States and compacts: Issues and events affecting facility development efforts, including the Barnwell opening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, G.S.

    1995-12-31

    Ten years have passed since the first regional low-level radioactive waste compacts received Congressional consent and initiated their efforts to develop new disposal capacity. During these 10 years, both significant achievements and serious setbacks have marked our efforts and affect our current outlook. Recent events in the waste marketplace, particularly in the operating status of the Barnwell disposal facility, have now raised legitimate questions about the continued rationale for the regional framework that grew out of the original legislation enacted by Congress in 1980. At the same time, licensing activities for new regional disposal facilities are under way in three states, and a fourth awaits the final go-ahead to begin construction. Uncertainty over the meaning and reliability of the marketplace events makes it difficult to gauge long-term implications. In addition, differences in the status of individual state and compact facility development efforts lead to varying assessments of the influence these events will, or should, have on such efforts.

  20. Development of a Virtual Museum Including a 4d Presentation of Building History in Virtual Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersten, T. P.; Tschirschwitz, F.; Deggim, S.

    2017-02-01

    In the last two decades the definition of the term "virtual museum" changed due to rapid technological developments. Using today's available 3D technologies a virtual museum is no longer just a presentation of collections on the Internet or a virtual tour of an exhibition using panoramic photography. On one hand, a virtual museum should enhance a museum visitor's experience by providing access to additional materials for review and knowledge deepening either before or after the real visit. On the other hand, a virtual museum should also be used as teaching material in the context of museum education. The laboratory for Photogrammetry & Laser Scanning of the HafenCity University Hamburg has developed a virtual museum (VM) of the museum "Alt-Segeberger Bürgerhaus", a historic town house. The VM offers two options for visitors wishing to explore the museum without travelling to the city of Bad Segeberg, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. Option a, an interactive computer-based, tour for visitors to explore the exhibition and to collect information of interest or option b, to immerse into virtual reality in 3D with the HTC Vive Virtual Reality System.

  1. States and compacts: Issues and events affecting facility development efforts, including the Barnwell opening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, G.S.

    1995-01-01

    Ten years have passed since the first regional low-level radioactive waste compacts received Congressional consent and initiated their efforts to develop new disposal capacity. During these 10 years, both significant achievements and serious setbacks have marked our efforts and affect our current outlook. Recent events in the waste marketplace, particularly in the operating status of the Barnwell disposal facility, have now raised legitimate questions about the continued rationale for the regional framework that grew out of the original legislation enacted by Congress in 1980. At the same time, licensing activities for new regional disposal facilities are under way in three states, and a fourth awaits the final go-ahead to begin construction. Uncertainty over the meaning and reliability of the marketplace events makes it difficult to gauge long-term implications. In addition, differences in the status of individual state and compact facility development efforts lead to varying assessments of the influence these events will, or should, have on such efforts

  2. Technology Estimating: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stuart K.; Reeves, John D.; Williams-Byrd, Julie A.; Greenberg, Marc; Comstock, Doug; Olds, John R.; Wallace, Jon; DePasquale, Dominic; Schaffer, Mark

    2013-01-01

    NASA is investing in new technologies that include 14 primary technology roadmap areas, and aeronautics. Understanding the cost for research and development of these technologies and the time it takes to increase the maturity of the technology is important to the support of the ongoing and future NASA missions. Overall, technology estimating may help provide guidance to technology investment strategies to help improve evaluation of technology affordability, and aid in decision support. The research provides a summary of the framework development of a Technology Estimating process where four technology roadmap areas were selected to be studied. The framework includes definition of terms, discussion for narrowing the focus from 14 NASA Technology Roadmap areas to four, and further refinement to include technologies, TRL range of 2 to 6. Included in this paper is a discussion to address the evaluation of 20 unique technology parameters that were initially identified, evaluated and then subsequently reduced for use in characterizing these technologies. A discussion of data acquisition effort and criteria established for data quality are provided. The findings obtained during the research included gaps identified, and a description of a spreadsheet-based estimating tool initiated as a part of the Technology Estimating process.

  3. Development of a hexavalent chromium ISFET sensor with a polymeric membrane including tributylphosphate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zazoua, A. [Universite de Annaba, BP 12, El-Hadjar, Annaba (Algeria); Zougar, S. [Universite de Annaba, BP 12, El-Hadjar, Annaba (Algeria); Kherrat, R. [Universite de Annaba, BP 12, El-Hadjar, Annaba (Algeria); Samar, M.H. [Universite de Annaba, BP 12, El-Hadjar, Annaba (Algeria); Jaffrezic-Renault, N. [CEGELY-UMR 5005 CNRS, Ecole centrale de Lyon, 69134 Ecully cedex (France)]. E-mail: Nicole.Jaffrezic@ec-lyon.fr; Errachid, A. [Center of Reference for Bioengineering in Catalonia (CREBEC), Laboratory of Nanobioengineering, Parc Cientific de Barcelona, Universidad de Barcelona C/ Josep Samitier 1-5, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Abbaci, A. [Universite de Annaba, BP 12, El-Hadjar, Annaba (Algeria)

    2006-03-15

    This paper presents a first report on chromium ISFET (ion-sensitive field effect transistor) based on a polymeric membrane (siloprene) including an ionophore (tributylphosphate) sensitive for hexavalent chromium. The sensor sensitivity as a function of the pH was studied; its value is minimum in a pH interval from 5.5 to 7.5. The sensitivity for hexavalent chromium was found to be 15 mV/loga {sub Cr{sup 6+}} in the range of 10{sup -4} to 10{sup -2} M. The detection limit was found to be 10{sup -5} M. The studied interfering ions are Pb(II) and Cd(II) that do not represent a great perturbation upon the response for hexavalent chromium.

  4. Development of a hexavalent chromium ISFET sensor with a polymeric membrane including tributylphosphate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zazoua, A.; Zougar, S.; Kherrat, R.; Samar, M.H.; Jaffrezic-Renault, N.; Errachid, A.; Abbaci, A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a first report on chromium ISFET (ion-sensitive field effect transistor) based on a polymeric membrane (siloprene) including an ionophore (tributylphosphate) sensitive for hexavalent chromium. The sensor sensitivity as a function of the pH was studied; its value is minimum in a pH interval from 5.5 to 7.5. The sensitivity for hexavalent chromium was found to be 15 mV/loga Cr 6+ in the range of 10 -4 to 10 -2 M. The detection limit was found to be 10 -5 M. The studied interfering ions are Pb(II) and Cd(II) that do not represent a great perturbation upon the response for hexavalent chromium

  5. Estimating energy-augmenting technological change in developing country industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanstad, Alan H.; Roy, Joyashree; Sathaye, Jayant A.

    2006-01-01

    Assumptions regarding the magnitude and direction of energy-related technological change have long been recognized as critical determinants of the outputs and policy conclusions derived from integrated assessment models. Particularly in the case of developing countries, however, empirical analysis of technological change has lagged behind simulation modeling. This paper presents estimates of sectoral productivity trends and energy-augmenting technological change for several energy-intensive industries in India and South Korea, and, for comparison, the United States. The key findings are substantial heterogeneity among both industries and countries, and a number of cases of declining energy efficiency. The results are subject to certain technical qualifications both in regards to the methodology and to the direct comparison to integrated assessment parameterizations. Nevertheless, they highlight the importance of closer attention to the empirical basis for common modeling assumptions

  6. Scope and status of the USA Engineering Test Facility including relevant TFTR research and development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becraft, W.R.; Reardon, P.J.

    1980-01-01

    The vehicle by which the fusion program would move into the engineering testing phase of fusion power development is designated the Engineering Test Facility (ETF). The progress toward the design and construction of the ETF will reflect the significant achievements of past, present, and future experimental tokamak devices. Some of the features of this foundation of experimental results and relevant engineering designs and operation will derive from the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) Project, now nearing the completion of its construction phase. The ETF would provide a test-bed for reactor components in the fusion environment. In order to initiate preliminary planning for the ETF decision, the Office of Fusion Energy (OFE) established the ETF Design Center activity to prepare the design of the ETF. This paper describes the design status of the ETF and discusses some highlights of the TFTR R and D work

  7. Scope and status of the USA Engineering Test Facility including relevant TFTR research and development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becraft, W.R.; Reardon, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    The vehicle by which the fusion programme would move into the engineering testing phase of fusion power development is designated the Engineering Test Facility (ETF). The progress toward the design and construction of the ETF will reflect the significant achievements of past, present, and future experimental tokamak devices. Some of the features of this foundation of experimental results and relevant engineering designs and operation will derive from the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) Project, now nearing the completion of its construction phase. The ETF would provide a test-bed for reactor components in the fusion environment. To initiate preliminary planning for the ETF decision, the Office of Fusion Energy (OFE) established the ETF Design Center activity to prepare the design of the ETF. This paper describes the design status of the ETF and discusses some highlights of the TFTR R and D work. (author)

  8. Recent developments of the MARC/PN transport theory code including a treatment of anisotropic scatter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fletcher, J.K.

    1987-12-01

    The computer code MARC/PN provides a solution of the multigroup transport equation by expanding the flux in spherical harmonics. The coefficients of the series so obtained satisfy linked first order differential equations, and on eliminating terms associated with odd parity harmonics a second order system results which can be solved by established finite difference or finite element techniques. This report describes modifications incorporated in MARC/PN to allow for anisotropic scattering, and the modelling of irregular exterior boundaries in the finite element option. The latter development leads to substantial reductions in problem size, particularly for three dimensions. Also, links to an interactive graphics mesh generator (SUPERTAB) have been added. The final section of the report contains results from problems showing the effects of anisotropic scatter and the ability of the code to model irregular geometries. (author)

  9. Development of the nervus terminalis in mammals including toothed whales and humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oelschläger, H A; Buhl, E H; Dann, J F

    1987-01-01

    The early ontogenesis and topography of the mammalian terminalis system was investigated in 43 microslide series of toothed whale and human embryos and fetuses. In early embryonal stages the development of the nasal pit, the olfacto-terminalis placode, and the olfactory bulb anlage is rather similar in toothed whales and humans. However, toothed whales do not show any trace of the vomeronasalis complex. In early fetal stages the olfactory bulb anlage in toothed whales is reduced and leaves the isolated future terminalis ganglion (ganglia) which contains the greatest number of cells within Mammalia. The ganglion is connected with the nasal mucosa via peripheral fiber bundles and with the telencephalon via central terminalis rootlets. The functional implications of the terminalis system in mammals and its evolution in toothed whales are discussed. Obviously, the autonomic component has been enlarged in the course of perfect adaptation to an aquatic environment.

  10. Estimation of Genetic Variance Components Including Mutation and Epistasis using Bayesian Approach in a Selection Experiment on Body Weight in Mice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Widyas, Nuzul; Jensen, Just; Nielsen, Vivi Hunnicke

    Selection experiment was performed for weight gain in 13 generations of outbred mice. A total of 18 lines were included in the experiment. Nine lines were allotted to each of the two treatment diets (19.3 and 5.1 % protein). Within each diet three lines were selected upwards, three lines were...... selected downwards and three lines were kept as controls. Bayesian statistical methods are used to estimate the genetic variance components. Mixed model analysis is modified including mutation effect following the methods by Wray (1990). DIC was used to compare the model. Models including mutation effect...... have better fit compared to the model with only additive effect. Mutation as direct effect contributes 3.18% of the total phenotypic variance. While in the model with interactions between additive and mutation, it contributes 1.43% as direct effect and 1.36% as interaction effect of the total variance...

  11. Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

    2015-12-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015

  12. DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT TRANSFER PRICING BY APPLICATION OF THE INTERVAL ESTIMATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena B. Shuvalova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the application of the method of interval estimation of conformity of the transaction price the market price. A comparative analysis of interval and point estimate. Identified the positive and negative effects of using interval estimation.

  13. Evaluation of the Repeatability of the Delta Q Duct Leakage Testing TechniqueIncluding Investigation of Robust Analysis Techniques and Estimates of Weather Induced Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickerhoff, Darryl; Walker, Iain

    2008-08-01

    The DeltaQ test is a method of estimating the air leakage from forced air duct systems. Developed primarily for residential and small commercial applications it uses the changes in blower door test results due to forced air system operation. Previous studies established the principles behind DeltaQ testing, but raised issues of precision of the test, particularly for leaky homes on windy days. Details of the measurement technique are available in an ASTM Standard (ASTM E1554-2007). In order to ease adoption of the test method, this study answers questions regarding the uncertainty due to changing weather during the test (particularly changes in wind speed) and the applicability to low leakage systems. The first question arises because the building envelope air flows and pressures used in the DeltaQ test are influenced by weather induced pressures. Variability in wind induced pressures rather than temperature difference induced pressures dominates this effect because the wind pressures change rapidly over the time period of a test. The second question needs to answered so that DeltaQ testing can be used in programs requiring or giving credit for tight ducts (e.g., California's Building Energy Code (CEC 2005)). DeltaQ modeling biases have been previously investigated in laboratory studies where there was no weather induced changes in envelope flows and pressures. Laboratory work by Andrews (2002) and Walker et al. (2004) found biases of about 0.5% of forced air system blower flow and individual test uncertainty of about 2% of forced air system blower flow. The laboratory tests were repeated by Walker and Dickerhoff (2006 and 2008) using a new ramping technique that continuously varied envelope pressures and air flows rather than taking data at pre-selected pressure stations (as used in ASTM E1554-2003 and other previous studies). The biases and individual test uncertainties for ramping were found to be very close (less than 0.5% of air handler flow) to those

  14. Development of Property Models with Uncertainty Estimate for Process Design under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hukkerikar, Amol; Sarup, Bent; Abildskov, Jens

    more reliable predictions with a new and improved set of model parameters for GC (group contribution) based and CI (atom connectivity index) based models and to quantify the uncertainties in the estimated property values from a process design point-of-view. This includes: (i) parameter estimation using....... The comparison of model prediction uncertainties with reported range of measurement uncertainties is presented for the properties with related available data. The application of the developed methodology to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on the design of different unit operations (distillation column......, the developed methodology can be used to quantify the sensitivity of process design to uncertainties in property estimates; obtain rationally the risk/safety factors in process design; and identify additional experimentation needs in order to reduce most critical uncertainties....

  15. 45 CFR 287.130 - Can NEW Program activities include job market assessments, job creation and economic development...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... assessments, job creation and economic development activities? 287.130 Section 287.130 Public Welfare... creation and economic development activities? (a) A Tribe may conduct job market assessments within its NEW Program. These might include the following: (1) Consultation with the Tribe's economic development staff...

  16. Modeling of magnetic fields on a cylindrical surface and associated parameter estimation for development of a size sensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Song; Rajamani, Rajesh

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops analytical sensing principles for estimation of circumferential size of a cylindrical surface using magnetic sensors. An electromagnet and magnetic sensors are used on a wearable band for measurement of leg size. In order to enable robust size estimation during rough real-world use of the wearable band, three estimation algorithms are developed based on models of the magnetic field variation over a cylindrical surface. The magnetic field models developed include those for a dipole and for a uniformly magnetized cylinder. The estimation algorithms used include a linear regression equation, an extended Kalman filter and an unscented Kalman filter. Experimental laboratory tests show that the size sensor in general performs accurately, yielding sub-millimeter estimation errors. The unscented Kalman filter yields the best performance that is robust to bias and misalignment errors. The size sensor developed herein can be used for monitoring swelling due to fluid accumulation in the lower leg and a number of other biomedical applications. (paper)

  17. Development of simplified decommissioning cost estimation code for nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tachibana, Mitsuo; Shiraishi, Kunio; Ishigami, Tsutomu

    2010-01-01

    The simplified decommissioning cost estimation code for nuclear facilities (DECOST code) was developed in consideration of features and structures of nuclear facilities and similarity of dismantling methods. The DECOST code could calculate 8 evaluation items of decommissioning cost. Actual dismantling in the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) was evaluated; unit conversion factors used to calculate the manpower of dismantling activities were evaluated. Consequently, unit conversion factors of general components could be classified into three kinds. Weights of components and structures of the facility were necessary for calculation of manpower. Methods for evaluating weights of components and structures of the facility were studied. Consequently, the weight of components in the facility was proportional to the weight of structures of the facility. The weight of structures of the facility was proportional to the total area of floors in the facility. Decommissioning costs of 7 nuclear facilities in the JAEA were calculated by using the DECOST code. To verify the calculated results, the calculated manpower was compared with the manpower gained from actual dismantling. Consequently, the calculated manpower and actual manpower were almost equal. The outline of the DECOST code, evaluation results of unit conversion factors, the evaluation method of the weights of components and structures of the facility are described in this report. (author)

  18. Development of LLW and VLLW disposal business cost estimation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koibuchi, Hiroko; Ishiguro, Hideharu; Matsuda, Kenji

    2004-01-01

    In order to undertake the LLW and VLLW disposal business, various examinations are carried out in RANDEC. Since it is important in undertaking this business to secure funds, a disposal cost must be calculated by way of trial. However, at present, there are many unknown factors such as the amount of wastes, a disposal schedule, the location of a disposal site, and so on, and the cost cannot be determined. Meanwhile, the cost depends on complicated relations among these factors. Then, a 'LLW and VLLW disposal business cost estimation system' has been developed to calculate the disposal cost easily. This system can calculate an annual balance of payments by using a construction and operation cost of disposal facilities, considering economic parameters of tax, inflation rate, interest rate and so on. And the system can calculate internal reserves to assign to next-stage upkeep of the disposal facilities after the disposal operation. A model of disposal site was designed based on assumption of some preconditions and a study was carried out to make a trial calculation by using the system. Moreover, it will be required to reduce construction cost by rationalizing the facility and to make flat an annual business spending by examining the business schedule. (author)

  19. The Estimation Of The Regions’ Efficiency Of The Russian Federation Including The Intellectual Capital, The Characteristics Of Readiness For Innovation, Level Of Well-Being, And Quality Of Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy Leonidovich Makarov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the authors’ methodology, the models of productive potential of the Russian Federation regions, including estimations of intellectual capital, were constructed. It is shown that characteristics of well-being level and quality of life make a significant impact on the regional production’s efficiency. The characteristics of regions’ readiness to innovate are identified, it is possible to name it as a factor of production’s efficiency. It is shown that the inclusion of different factors of efficiency in the production potential model can significantly increase the differentiation of technical efficiency estimates, besides these estimates and their grades depend on a set of efficiency’s factors. On the basis of a comparison of real GRP and boundary GRP ratings, it is identified locally effective regions with a relatively high estimation of efficiency among regions with similar amounts of GRP and locally ineffective regions. It is calculated marginal effects of influence of the efficiency’s factors on the result of industrial activity in the region. It seems constructively to use these estimates while analyzing the prospects for regions’ development, which is based on the possibility of targeting impact on controllable efficiency’s factors. The article is also offered the option of methodology of the public policy efficiency estimation on the knowledge economy formation — an agent-based model for Russia, which is learning the “knowledge economy” sector and considering their relationship with the rest of the macroeconomic system.

  20. Aircraft parameter estimation ± A tool for development of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In addition, actuator performance and controller gains may be flight condition dependent. Moreover, this approach may result in open-loop parameter estimates with low accuracy. 6. Aerodynamic databases for high fidelity flight simulators. Estimation of a comprehensive aerodynamic model suitable for a flight simulator is an.

  1. Estimation of taxa included in the first volume of the Red Data Book of the Republic of Mordovia (Russia using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoliy A. Khapugin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an estimation of taxa included in the first volume of the Red Data Book of the Republic of Mordovia using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Each taxon is provided by a category and all criteria appropriate for it within the region. The paper contains the estimation results of 177 taxa of vascular plants, mosses and algae from the first volume Red Data Book of the Republic of Mordovia (second edition. Of these, 137 are Threatened: 73 taxa are Critically Endangered (category CR, 41 taxa Endangered (category EN, 23 are Vulnerable (category VU, 31 taxa are Near Threatened (category NT. Nine taxa are in the category Data Deficient (DD, due to a lack of sufficient factual material needed for the evaluation. Another 59 taxa of the Red Data Book of the Republic of Mordovia (35 macromycetes and 24 lichens were not evaluated in the present study, also due to the lack of sufficient data needed for an evaluation. Therefore, these taxa are temporarily in the category Not Evaluated (NE. But they could be assigned to one of the threatened categories when evaluated in the future, according to the Guidelines for Application of IUCN Red List Criteria. This paper is considered as a base for establishing the Red List of plant taxa of the Republic of Mordovia in the future.

  2. Associated with aerospace vehicles development of methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Elaine P.

    1994-01-01

    was related to the development of the experimental techniques. Initial experiments required a resistance heater placed between two samples. The design was modified such that the heater was placed on the surface of only one sample, as would be necessary in the analysis of built up structures. Experiments using the modified technique were conducted on the composite sample used previously at different temperatures. The results were within 5 percent of those found using two samples. Finally, an initial heat transfer analysis, including conduction, convection and radiation components, was completed on a titanium sandwich structural sample. Experiments utilizing this sample are currently being designed and will be used to first estimate the material's effective thermal conductivity and later to determine the properties associated with each individual heat transfer component.

  3. Development of simple kinetic models and parameter estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PANCHIGA

    2016-09-28

    Sep 28, 2016 ... estimation for simulation of recombinant human serum albumin ... and recombinant protein production by P. pastoris without requiring complex models. Key words: ..... SDS-PAGE and showed the same molecular size as.

  4. Estimation of local and external contributions of biomass burning to PM2.5 in an industrial zone included in a large urban settlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benetello, Francesca; Squizzato, Stefania; Hofer, Angelika; Masiol, Mauro; Khan, Md Badiuzzaman; Piazzalunga, Andrea; Fermo, Paola; Formenton, Gian Maria; Rampazzo, Giancarlo; Pavoni, Bruno

    2017-01-01

    A total of 85 PM 2.5 samples were collected at a site located in a large industrial zone (Porto Marghera, Venice, Italy) during a 1-year-long sampling campaign. Samples were analyzed to determine water-soluble inorganic ions, elemental and organic carbon, and levoglucosan, and results were processed to investigate the seasonal patterns, the relationship between the analyzed species, and the most probable sources by using a set of tools, including (i) conditional probability function (CPF), (ii) conditional bivariate probability function (CBPF), (iii) concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and (iv) potential source contribution function (PSCF) analyses. Furthermore, the importance of biomass combustions to PM 2.5 was also estimated. Average PM 2.5 concentrations ranged between 54 and 16 μg m -3 in the cold and warm period, respectively. The mean value of total ions was 11 μg m -3 (range 1-46 μg m -3 ): The most abundant ion was nitrate with a share of 44 % followed by sulfate (29 %), ammonium (14 %), potassium (4 %), and chloride (4 %). Levoglucosan accounted for 1.2 % of the PM 2.5 mass, and its concentration ranged from few ng m -3 in warm periods to 2.66 μg m -3 during winter. Average concentrations of levoglucosan during the cold period were higher than those found in other European urban sites. This result may indicate a great influence of biomass combustions on particulate matter pollution. Elemental and organic carbon (EC, OC) showed similar behavior, with the highest contributions during cold periods and lower during summer. The ratios between biomass burning indicators (K + , Cl - , NO 3 - , SO 4 2- , levoglucosan, EC, and OC) were used as proxy for the biomass burning estimation, and the contribution to the OC and PM 2.5 was also calculated by using the levoglucosan (LG)/OC and LG/PM 2.5 ratios and was estimated to be 29 and 18 %, respectively.

  5. Developing a generalized allometric equation for aboveground biomass estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Q.; Balamuta, J. J.; Greenberg, J. A.; Li, B.; Man, A.; Xu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A key potential uncertainty in estimating carbon stocks across multiple scales stems from the use of empirically calibrated allometric equations, which estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) from plant characteristics such as diameter at breast height (DBH) and/or height (H). The equations themselves contain significant and, at times, poorly characterized errors. Species-specific equations may be missing. Plant responses to their local biophysical environment may lead to spatially varying allometric relationships. The structural predictor may be difficult or impossible to measure accurately, particularly when derived from remote sensing data. All of these issues may lead to significant and spatially varying uncertainties in the estimation of AGB that are unexplored in the literature. We sought to quantify the errors in predicting AGB at the tree and plot level for vegetation plots in California. To accomplish this, we derived a generalized allometric equation (GAE) which we used to model the AGB on a full set of tree information such as DBH, H, taxonomy, and biophysical environment. The GAE was derived using published allometric equations in the GlobAllomeTree database. The equations were sparse in details about the error since authors provide the coefficient of determination (R2) and the sample size. A more realistic simulation of tree AGB should also contain the noise that was not captured by the allometric equation. We derived an empirically corrected variance estimate for the amount of noise to represent the errors in the real biomass. Also, we accounted for the hierarchical relationship between different species by treating each taxonomic level as a covariate nested within a higher taxonomic level (e.g. species contribution of each different covariate in estimating the AGB of trees. Lastly, we applied the GAE to an existing vegetation plot database - Forest Inventory and Analysis database - to derive per-tree and per-plot AGB estimations, their errors, and how

  6. Methodology development for the radioecological monitoring effectiveness estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gusev, A.E.; Kozlov, A.A.; Lavrov, K.N.; Sobolev, I.A.; Tsyplyakova, T.P.

    1997-01-01

    A general model for estimation of the programs assuring radiation and ecological public protection is described. The complex of purposes and criteria characterizing and giving an opportunity to estimate the effectiveness of environment protection program composition is selected. An algorithm for selecting the optimal management decision from the view point of work cost connected with population protection improvement is considered. The position of radiation-ecological monitoring in general problem of environment pollution is determined. It is shown that the monitoring organizing effectiveness is closely connected with population radiation and ecological protection

  7. Technology Estimating 2: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stuart K.; Wallace, Jon; Schaffer, Mark; May, M. Scott; Greenberg, Marc W.

    2014-01-01

    As a leader in space technology research and development, NASA is continuing in the development of the Technology Estimating process, initiated in 2012, for estimating the cost and schedule of low maturity technology research and development, where the Technology Readiness Level is less than TRL 6. NASA' s Technology Roadmap areas consist of 14 technology areas. The focus of this continuing Technology Estimating effort included four Technology Areas (TA): TA3 Space Power and Energy Storage, TA4 Robotics, TA8 Instruments, and TA12 Materials, to confine the research to the most abundant data pool. This research report continues the development of technology estimating efforts completed during 2013-2014, and addresses the refinement of parameters selected and recommended for use in the estimating process, where the parameters developed are applicable to Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) used in the parametric cost estimating analysis. This research addresses the architecture for administration of the Technology Cost and Scheduling Estimating tool, the parameters suggested for computer software adjunct to any technology area, and the identification of gaps in the Technology Estimating process.

  8. Development of a customised design flood estimation tool to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of design flood events, i.e., floods characterised by a specific magnitude-frequency relationship, at a particular site in a specific region is necessary for the planning, design and operation of hydraulic structures. Both the occurrence and frequency of flood events, along with the uncertainty involved in the ...

  9. Taking the Evolutionary Road to Developing an In-House Cost Estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacintho, David; Esker, Lind; Herman, Frank; Lavaque, Rodolfo; Regardie, Myma

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the process and some of the problems and challenges of developing an In-House Cost Estimate (IHCE). Using as an example the Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment (SGSS) project, the presentation reviews the phases for developing a Cost estimate within the project to estimate government and contractor project costs to support a budget request.

  10. Development and prospective validation of a model estimating risk of readmission in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Carl R; Hefner, Jennifer; McAlearney, Ann S; Graham, Lisa; Johnson, Kristen; Moffatt-Bruce, Susan; Huerta, Timothy; Pawlik, Timothy M; White, Susan

    2018-02-26

    Hospital readmissions among cancer patients are common. While several models estimating readmission risk exist, models specific for cancer patients are lacking. A logistic regression model estimating risk of unplanned 30-day readmission was developed using inpatient admission data from a 2-year period (n = 18 782) at a tertiary cancer hospital. Readmission risk estimates derived from the model were then calculated prospectively over a 10-month period (n = 8616 admissions) and compared with actual incidence of readmission. There were 2478 (13.2%) unplanned readmissions. Model factors associated with readmission included: emergency department visit within 30 days, >1 admission within 60 days, non-surgical admission, solid malignancy, gastrointestinal cancer, emergency admission, length of stay >5 days, abnormal sodium, hemoglobin, or white blood cell count. The c-statistic for the model was 0.70. During the 10-month prospective evaluation, estimates of readmission from the model were associated with higher actual readmission incidence from 20.7% for the highest risk category to 9.6% for the lowest. An unplanned readmission risk model developed specifically for cancer patients performs well when validated prospectively. The specificity of the model for cancer patients, EMR incorporation, and prospective validation justify use of the model in future studies designed to reduce and prevent readmissions. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Third molar development: evaluation of nine tooth development registration techniques for age estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, Patrick W; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2013-03-01

    Multiple third molar development registration techniques exist. Therefore the aim of this study was to detect which third molar development registration technique was most promising to use as a tool for subadult age estimation. On a collection of 1199 panoramic radiographs the development of all present third molars was registered following nine different registration techniques [Gleiser, Hunt (GH); Haavikko (HV); Demirjian (DM); Raungpaka (RA); Gustafson, Koch (GK); Harris, Nortje (HN); Kullman (KU); Moorrees (MO); Cameriere (CA)]. Regression models with age as response and the third molar registration as predictor were developed for each registration technique separately. The MO technique disclosed highest R(2) (F 51%, M 45%) and lowest root mean squared error (F 3.42 years; M 3.67 years) values, but differences with other techniques were small in magnitude. The amount of stages utilized in the explored staging techniques slightly influenced the age predictions. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  12. 25 CFR 170.807 - What must BIA include when it develops an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management System? 170.807 Section 170.807 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER INDIAN RESERVATION ROADS PROGRAM BIA Road Maintenance § 170.807 What must BIA include when it develops an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management System...

  13. Hawaii Energy Resource Overviews. Volume 4. Impact of geothermal resource development in Hawaii (including air and water quality)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siegel, S.M.; Siegel, B.Z.

    1980-06-01

    The environmental consequences of natural processes in a volcanic-fumerolic region and of geothermal resource development are presented. These include acute ecological effects, toxic gas emissions during non-eruptive periods, the HGP-A geothermal well as a site-specific model, and the geothermal resources potential of Hawaii. (MHR)

  14. Automated delay estimation at signalized intersections : phase I concept and algorithm development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    Currently there are several methods to measure the performance of surface streets, but their capabilities in dynamically estimating vehicle delay are limited. The objective of this research is to develop a method to automate traffic delay estimation ...

  15. Survey indicated that core outcome set development is increasingly including patients, being conducted internationally and using Delphi surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggane, Alice M; Brading, Lucy; Ravaud, Philippe; Young, Bridget; Williamson, Paula R

    2018-02-17

    There are numerous challenges in including patients in a core outcome set (COS) study, these can vary depending on the patient group. This study describes current efforts to include patients in the development of COS, with the aim of identifying areas for further improvement and study. Using the COMET database, corresponding authors of COS projects registered or published from 1 January 2013 to 2 February 2017 were invited via a personalised email to participate in a short online survey. The survey and emails were constructed to maximise the response rate by following the academic literature on enhancing survey responses. Personalised reminder emails were sent to non-responders. This survey explored the frequency of patient input in COS studies, who was involved, what methods were used and whether or not the COS development was international. One hundred and ninety-two COS developers were sent the survey. Responses were collected from 21 February 2017 until 7 May 2017. One hundred and forty-six unique developers responded, yielding a 76% response rate and data in relation to 195 unique COSs (as some developers had worked on multiple COSs). Of focus here are their responses regarding 162 COSs at the published, completed or ongoing stages of development. Inclusion of patient participants was indicated in 87% (141/162) of COSs in the published completed or ongoing stages and over 94% (65/69) of ongoing COS projects. Nearly half (65/135) of COSs included patient participants from two or more countries and 22% (30/135) included patient participants from five or more countries. The Delphi survey was reported as being used singularly or in combination with other methods in 85% (119/140) of projects. Almost a quarter (16/65) of ongoing studies reported using a combination of qualitative interviews, Delphi survey and consensus meeting. These findings indicated that the Delphi survey is the most popular method of facilitating patient participation, while the combination of

  16. Estimating Implementation and Operational Costs of an Integrated Tiered CD4 Service including Laboratory and Point of Care Testing in a Remote Health District in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassim, Naseem; Coetzee, Lindi M.; Schnippel, Kathryn; Glencross, Deborah K.

    2014-01-01

    Background An integrated tiered service delivery model (ITSDM) has been proposed to provide ‘full-coverage’ of CD4 services throughout South Africa. Five tiers are described, defined by testing volumes and number of referring health-facilities. These include: (1) Tier-1/decentralized point-of-care service (POC) in a single site; Tier-2/POC-hub servicing processing 600 samples/day and serving >100 or >200 health-clinics, respectively. The objective of this study was to establish costs of existing and ITSDM-tiers 1, 2 and 3 in a remote, under-serviced district in South Africa. Methods Historical health-facility workload volumes from the Pixley-ka-Seme district, and the total volumes of CD4 tests performed by the adjacent district referral CD4 laboratories, linked to locations of all referring clinics and related laboratory-to-result turn-around time (LTR-TAT) data, were extracted from the NHLS Corporate-Data-Warehouse for the period April-2012 to March-2013. Tiers were costed separately (as a cost-per-result) including equipment, staffing, reagents and test consumable costs. A one-way sensitivity analyses provided for changes in reagent price, test volumes and personnel time. Results The lowest cost-per-result was noted for the existing laboratory-based Tiers- 4 and 5 ($6.24 and $5.37 respectively), but with related increased LTR-TAT of >24–48 hours. Full service coverage with TAT cost-per-result of $32.32 and $15.88 respectively. A single district Tier-3 laboratory also ensured ‘full service coverage’ and Implementing a single Tier-3/community laboratory to extend and improve delivery of services in Pixley-ka-Seme, with an estimated local ∼12–24-hour LTR-TAT, is ∼$2 more than existing referred services per-test, but 2–4 fold cheaper than implementing eight Tier-2/POC-hubs or providing twenty-seven Tier-1/POCT CD4 services. PMID:25517412

  17. Development of a practical modeling framework for estimating the impact of wind technology on bird populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, M.L. [California State Univ., Sacramento, CA (United States); Pollock, K.H. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1997-11-01

    One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds.

  18. Development of a practical modeling framework for estimating the impact of wind technology on bird populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, M.L.; Pollock, K.H.

    1997-11-01

    One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds

  19. Development of several data bases related to reactor safety research including probabilistic safety assessment and incident analysis at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Kensuke; Oikawa, Tetsukuni; Watanabe, Norio; Izumi, Fumio; Higuchi, Suminori

    1986-01-01

    Presented are several databases developed at JAERI for reactor safety research including probabilistic safety assessment and incident analysis. First described are the recent developments of the databases such as 1) the component failure rate database, 2) the OECD/NEA/IRS information retrieval system, 3) the nuclear power plant database and so on. Then several issues are discussed referring mostly to the operation of the database (data input and transcoding) and to the retrieval and utilization of the information. Finally, emphasis is given to the increasing role which artifitial intelligence techniques such as natural language treatment and expert systems may play in improving the future capabilities of the databases. (author)

  20. System Development of Estimated Figures of Volume Production Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brazhnikov, Maksim A.; Khorina, Irina V.; Minina, Yulia I.; Kolyasnikova, Lyudmila V.; Streltsov, Aleksey V.

    2016-01-01

    The relevance of this problem is primarily determined by a necessity of improving production efficiency in conditions of innovative development of the economy and implementation of Import Substitution Program. The purpose of the article is development of set of criteria and procedures for the comparative assessment of alternative volume production…

  1. Developing a method for estimating AADT on all Louisiana roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Traffic flow volumes present key information needed for making transportation engineering and planning decisions. : Accurate traffic volume count has many applications including: roadway planning, design, air quality compliance, travel : model valida...

  2. Developing milk industry estimates for dose reconstruction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, D.M.; Darwin, R.F.

    1991-01-01

    One of the most important contributors to radiation doses from hanford during the 1944-1947 period was radioactive iodine. Consumption of milk from cows that ate vegetation contaminated with iodine is likely the dominant pathway of human exposure. To estimate the doses people could have received from this pathway, it is necessary to reconstruct the amount of milk consumed by people living near Hanford, the source of the milk, and the type of feed that the milk cows ate. This task is challenging because the dairy industry has undergone radical changes since the end of World War 2, and records that document the impact of these changes on the study area are scarce. Similar problems are faced by researchers on most dose reconstruction efforts. The purpose of this work is to document and evaluate the methods used on the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to reconstruct the milk industry and to present preliminary results

  3. Studies and analyses of the management of scientific research and development, including implementation and application at NASA centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubenstein, A. H.

    1975-01-01

    Summary results obtained through the Program of Research on the Management of Research and Development (POMRAD) were presented. The nature of the overall program and the specific projects undertaken were described. Statistical data is also given concerning the papers, publications, people, and major program areas associated with the program. The actual list of papers, names of doctoral and masters theses, and other details of the program are included as appendices.

  4. Postnatal growth, age estimation and development of foraging ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    mothers. There was no significant difference in the growth pattern of the young maintained in captivity compared ..... interactions, and development of vocalizations in the vesper- ... Kunz T H and Hood W R 2000 Parental care and postnatal.

  5. The development of a preliminary regression equation for estimating ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    atrophy and a loss of lean body mass. ... to the risk for diseases of lifestyle, obesity is known to increase the ... weight forms part of the routine evaluation of nutritional status since ... on the basis of strength and practicality and included the following variables: circumferences of the calf, chest, and neck as well as the supine.

  6. ESTIMATING FINANCIAL SUPPORT OF REGIONAL PROGRAMS OF SOCIAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iryna Kokhan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The given article presents the analysis of the experience of the financial support of the regional programs of social economic development and the areas of usage of internal and external resources of the area. Dynamic and balanced development of regions is one of the most important issues for further establishment of marketing relations and social transformations in Ukraine. The Aim lies in the evaluation of financial support of the approved regional programs and launching the amount of their financing. The assessment of social economic situation in Ivano-Frankivsk region in terms of nationwide tendencies allows asserting that economic growth depends on the amounts and sources provided by the state. To determine close connection between  the amount of financing  for the programs  and  gross domestic product, the coefficient of correlation was calculated according to Pierson. It was proved that the amount of financing regional programs of social economic development influences the growth rate of gross domestic product. During research period the activation of regional authority institutions is being surveyed regarding the adoption and financing target regional programs. It was determined that the dynamic activity of the regional community and its territorial units on realization in terms of defined strategic priorities for programs of social economic development will facilitate disproportion reduction and differences in the development of territory units in the region, as well as positively influences the growth of gross domestic product providing steady increase of social welfare. Keywords: social economic regional development, ecology programs, social programs, gross regional domestic product, Pierson’s correlation coefficient. JEL: R 58

  7. Development of simple kinetic models and parameter estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to describe and predict the growth and expression of recombinant proteins by using a genetically modified Pichia pastoris, we developed a number of unstructured models based on growth kinetic equation, fed-batch mass balance and the assumptions of constant cell and protein yields. The growth of P. pastoris on ...

  8. Inequality and development: Evidence from semiparametric estimation with panel data

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, X.; Li, Kui-Wai

    2011-01-01

    Evidences from nonparametric and semiparametric unbalanced panel data models with fixed effects show that Kuznet’s inverted-U relationship is confirmed when economic development reaches a threshold. The model tests justify semiparametric specification. The integrated net contribution of control variables to inequality reduction is significant.

  9. Including capabilities of local actors in regional economic development: Empirical results of local seaweed industries in Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark T.J. Vredegoor

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Stimson, et al. (2009 developed one of the most relevant and well known model for Regional Economic Development. This model covers the most important factors related to economic development question. However, this model excludes the social components of development. Local community should be included in terms of the development of a region. This paper introduced to the Stimson model “Skills” and “Knowledge” at the individual level for local actors indicating the capabilities at the individual level and introduced “Human Coordination” for the capabilities at the collective level. In our empirical research we looked at the Indonesian seaweed market with a specific focus on the region of Baubau. This region was chosen because there are hardly any economic developments. Furthermore this study focuses on the poorer community who are trying to improve their situation by the cultivation of Seaweed. Eighteen local informants was interviewed besides additional interviews of informants from educational and governmental institutions in the cities of Jakarta, Bandung and Yogyakarta. The informants selected had a direct or indirect relationship with the region of Baubau. With the support of the empirical data from this region we can confirm that it is worthwhile to include the local community in the model for regional economic development.  The newly added variables: at the individual level; Skills and Knowledge and at the level of the collective: Human Coordination was supported by the empirical material. It is an indication that including the new variables can give regional economic an extra dimension.  In this way we think that it becomes more explicit that “endogenous” means that the people, or variables closely related to them, should be more explicitly included in models trying to capture Regional Economic Development or rephrased as Local Economic Development Keywords:Regional and endogenous development; Fisheries and seaweed

  10. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided

  11. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

  12. Cost Estimation of Software Development and the Implications for the Program Manager

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-06-01

    Software Lifecycle Model (SLIM), the Jensen System-4 model, the Software Productivity, Quality, and Reliability Estimator ( SPQR \\20), the Constructive...function models in current use are the Software Productivity, Quality, and Reliability Estimator ( SPQR /20) and the Software Architecture Sizing and...Estimator ( SPQR /20) was developed by T. Capers Jones of Software Productivity Research, Inc., in 1985. The model is intended to estimate the outcome

  13. A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

  14. Estimating the cost of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldie Sue J

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

  15. Developing Methods for Fraction Cover Estimation Toward Global Mapping of Ecosystem Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, D. A.; Thompson, D. R.; Dennison, P. E.; Green, R. O.; Kokaly, R. F.; Pavlick, R.; Schimel, D.; Stavros, E. N.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial vegetation seldom covers an entire pixel due to spatial mixing at many scales. Estimating the fractional contributions of photosynthetic green vegetation (GV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), and substrate (soil, rock, etc.) to mixed spectra can significantly improve quantitative remote measurement of terrestrial ecosystems. Traditional methods for estimating fractional vegetation cover rely on vegetation indices that are sensitive to variable substrate brightness, NPV and sun-sensor geometry. Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) is an alternate framework that provides estimates of fractional cover. However, simple SMA, in which the same set of endmembers is used for an entire image, fails to account for natural spectral variability within a cover class. Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) is a variant of SMA that allows the number and types of pure spectra to vary on a per-pixel basis, thereby accounting for endmember variability and generating more accurate cover estimates, but at a higher computational cost. Routine generation and delivery of GV, NPV, and substrate (S) fractions using MESMA is currently in development for large, diverse datasets acquired by the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). We present initial results, including our methodology for ensuring consistency and generalizability of fractional cover estimates across a wide range of regions, seasons, and biomes. We also assess uncertainty and provide a strategy for validation. GV, NPV, and S fractions are an important precursor for deriving consistent measurements of ecosystem parameters such as plant stress and mortality, functional trait assessment, disturbance susceptibility and recovery, and biomass and carbon stock assessment. Copyright 2016 California Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. We acknowledge support of the US Government, NASA, the Earth Science Division and Terrestrial Ecology program.

  16. RAIL TRAFFIC VOLUME ESTIMATION BASED ON WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luka Lazarević

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available European transport policy, defined in the White Paper, supports shift from road to rail and waterborne transport. The hypothesis of the paper is that changes in the economic environment influence rail traffic volume. Therefore, a model for prediction of rail traffic volume applied in different economic contexts could be a valuable tool for the transport planners. The model was built using common Machine Learning techniques that learn from the past experience. In the model preparation, world development indicators defined by the World Bank were used as input parameters.

  17. Chernobyl accident: revision of individual thyroid dose estimates for the children included in the cohort of the Belarusian-American study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minenko, Victor; Shemyakina, Elena; Tretyakevich, Sergey

    2000-01-01

    The observed sharp increase in the number of childhood-thyroid-cancer cases in Belarus that has occurred since the Chernobyl accident stimulated the undertaking in 1994 of a long-term American-Belarusian cohort study. That epidemiological study is aimed at revealing the carcinogenic effectiveness of 131 I (the main contributor to the thyroid exposure) and at estimating the risk coefficient of thyroid disease, especially thyroid cancer, as a function of age at exposure. It is planned to follow actively 15,000 children (aged 0-18 at the time of the accident) sampled among about 40,000 who had their thyroid measured in vivo in 1986. Such direct thyroid measurements provide the basis for the initial thyroid dose estimates that have been established for the 40,000 children in the absence of personal interviews. As of August 1999, approximately 5,000 cohort subjects have been screened and interviewed. The initial estimates of individual thyroid dose are being revised for all of the cohort subjects that have been screened. The revision procedure of the 131 I thyroid dose assessment consists of two parts: (1) re-analysis of the direct thyroid measurements and (2) analysis of the responses to the personal interview which were conducted in order to determine the kinetics of the radioiodine intake by the cohort subjects. Revised estimates of thyroid dose resulting from 131 I intake are presented for a sample of 1,000 subjects residing in various areas of Belarus. The reason for the differences between the initial and the revised thyroid dose estimates are discussed. In addition to the estimation of the internal thyroid dose from 131 I, three minor contributors to the thyroid exposure are considered separately: (1) the internal exposure resulting from intake of short-lived radioiodines and radiotelluriums, (2) the internal exposure resulting from intake of other radionuclides (mainly radiocesiums), and (3) external exposure from radionuclides deposited on the ground. Examples

  18. Development and assessment of best estimate integrated safety analysis code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Hwang, Moon Kyu (and others)

    2007-03-15

    Improvement of the integrated safety analysis code MARS3.0 has been carried out and a multi-D safety analysis application system has been established. Iterative matrix solver and parallel processing algorithm have been introduced, and a LINUX version has been generated to enable MARS to run in cluster PCs. MARS variables and sub-routines have been reformed and modularised to simplify code maintenance. Model uncertainty analyses have been performed for THTF, FLECHT, NEPTUN, and LOFT experiments as well as APR1400 plant. Participations in international cooperation research projects such as OECD BEMUSE, SETH, PKL, BFBT, and TMI-2 have been actively pursued as part of code assessment efforts. The assessment, evaluation and experimental data obtained through international cooperation projects have been registered and maintained in the T/H Databank. Multi-D analyses of APR1400 LBLOCA, DVI Break, SLB, and SGTR have been carried out as a part of application efforts in multi-D safety analysis. GUI based 3D input generator has been developed for user convenience. Operation of the MARS Users Group (MUG) was continued and through MUG, the technology has been transferred to 24 organisations. A set of 4 volumes of user manuals has been compiled and the correction reports for the code errors reported during MARS development have been published.

  19. Development and assessment of best estimate integrated safety analysis code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Hwang, Moon Kyu

    2007-03-01

    Improvement of the integrated safety analysis code MARS3.0 has been carried out and a multi-D safety analysis application system has been established. Iterative matrix solver and parallel processing algorithm have been introduced, and a LINUX version has been generated to enable MARS to run in cluster PCs. MARS variables and sub-routines have been reformed and modularised to simplify code maintenance. Model uncertainty analyses have been performed for THTF, FLECHT, NEPTUN, and LOFT experiments as well as APR1400 plant. Participations in international cooperation research projects such as OECD BEMUSE, SETH, PKL, BFBT, and TMI-2 have been actively pursued as part of code assessment efforts. The assessment, evaluation and experimental data obtained through international cooperation projects have been registered and maintained in the T/H Databank. Multi-D analyses of APR1400 LBLOCA, DVI Break, SLB, and SGTR have been carried out as a part of application efforts in multi-D safety analysis. GUI based 3D input generator has been developed for user convenience. Operation of the MARS Users Group (MUG) was continued and through MUG, the technology has been transferred to 24 organisations. A set of 4 volumes of user manuals has been compiled and the correction reports for the code errors reported during MARS development have been published

  20. Development and validation of satellite based estimates of surface visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunner, J.; Pierce, R. B.; Lenzen, A.

    2015-10-01

    A satellite based surface visibility retrieval has been developed using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements as a proxy for Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data from the next generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). The retrieval uses a multiple linear regression approach to relate satellite aerosol optical depth, fog/low cloud probability and thickness retrievals, and meteorological variables from numerical weather prediction forecasts to National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) surface visibility measurements. Validation using independent ASOS measurements shows that the GOES-R ABI surface visibility retrieval (V) has an overall success rate of 64.5% for classifying Clear (V ≥ 30 km), Moderate (10 km ≤ V United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Park Service (NPS) Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network, and provide useful information to the regional planning offices responsible for developing mitigation strategies required under the EPA's Regional Haze Rule, particularly during regional haze events associated with smoke from wildfires.

  1. Development of Constraint Force Equation Methodology for Application to Multi-Body Dynamics Including Launch Vehicle Stage Seperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamadi, Bandu N.; Toniolo, Matthew D.; Tartabini, Paul V.; Roithmayr, Carlos M.; Albertson, Cindy W.; Karlgaard, Christopher D.

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this report is to develop and implement a physics based method for analysis and simulation of multi-body dynamics including launch vehicle stage separation. The constraint force equation (CFE) methodology discussed in this report provides such a framework for modeling constraint forces and moments acting at joints when the vehicles are still connected. Several stand-alone test cases involving various types of joints were developed to validate the CFE methodology. The results were compared with ADAMS(Registered Trademark) and Autolev, two different industry standard benchmark codes for multi-body dynamic analysis and simulations. However, these two codes are not designed for aerospace flight trajectory simulations. After this validation exercise, the CFE algorithm was implemented in Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) to provide a capability to simulate end-to-end trajectories of launch vehicles including stage separation. The POST2/CFE methodology was applied to the STS-1 Space Shuttle solid rocket booster (SRB) separation and Hyper-X Research Vehicle (HXRV) separation from the Pegasus booster as a further test and validation for its application to launch vehicle stage separation problems. Finally, to demonstrate end-to-end simulation capability, POST2/CFE was applied to the ascent, orbit insertion, and booster return of a reusable two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle concept. With these validation exercises, POST2/CFE software can be used for performing conceptual level end-to-end simulations, including launch vehicle stage separation, for problems similar to those discussed in this report.

  2. Development of flow injection analysis technique for uranium estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paranjape, A.H.; Pandit, S.S.; Shinde, S.S.; Ramanujam, A.; Dhumwad, R.K.

    1991-01-01

    Flow injection analysis is increasingly used as a process control analytical technique in many industries. It involves injection of the sample at a constant rate into a steady flowing stream of reagent and passing this mixture through a suitable detector. This paper describes the development of such a system for the analysis of uranium (VI) and (IV) and its gross gamma activity. It is amenable for on-line or automated off-line monitoring of uranium and its activity in process streams. The sample injection port is suitable for automated injection of radioactive samples. The performance of the system has been tested for the colorimetric response of U(VI) samples at 410 nm in the range of 35 to 360mg/ml in nitric acid medium using Metrohm 662 Photometer and a recorder as detector assembly. The precision of the method is found to be better than +/- 0.5%. This technique with certain modifications is used for the analysis of U(VI) in the range 0.1-3mg/ailq. by alcoholic thiocynate procedure within +/- 1.5% precision. Similarly the precision for the determination of U(IV) in the range 15-120 mg at 650 nm is found to be better than 5%. With NaI well-type detector in the flow line, the gross gamma counting of the solution under flow is found to be within a precision of +/- 5%. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  3. Developing mechanisms for estimating carbon footprint in farming systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaya-Romero, María; Fernández Luque, José Enrique; Rodríguez Merino, Alejandro; José Moreno Delgado, Juan; Rodado, Concepción Mira; Romero Vicente, Rafael; Perez-Martin, Alfonso; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam

    2015-04-01

    Sustainable land management is critical to avoid land degradation and to reclaim degraded land for its productive use and for reaping the benefits of crucial ecosystem services and protecting biodiversity. It also helps in mitigating and adapting to climate change. Land and its various uses are affected severely by climate change too (flooding, droughts, etc.). Existing tools and technologies for efficient land management need to be adapted and their application expanded. A large number of human livelihoods and ecosystems can benefit from these tools and techniques since these yield multiple benefits. Disseminating and scaling up the implementation of sustainable land management approaches will, however, need to be backed up by mobilizing strong political will and financial resources. The challenge is to provide an integral decision support tool that can establish relationships between soil carbon content, climate change and land use and management aspects that allow stakeholders to detect, cope with and intervene into land system change in a sustainable way. In order to achieve this goal an agro-ecological meta-model called CarboLAND will be calibrated in several plots located in Andalusia region, Southern Spain, under different scenarios of climate and agricultural use and management. The output will be the CLIMALAND e-platform, which will also include protocols in order to support stakeholders for an integrated ecosystem approach, taking into account biodiversity, hydrological and soil capability, socio-economic aspects, and regional and environmental policies. This tool will be made available at the European context for a regional level, providing user-friendly interfaces and a scientifically-technical platform for the assessment of sustainable land use and management.

  4. The post-millennium development goals agenda: include 'end to all wars' as a public health goal!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasinghe, Saroj

    2014-09-01

    The process of identifying global post-millennium development goals (post-MDGs) has begun in earnest. Consensus is emerging in certain areas (e.g. eliminating poverty) and conflicts and violence are recognized as key factors that retard human development. However, current discussions focus on tackling intra-state conflicts and individual-based violence and hardly mention eliminating wars as a goal. Wars create public health catastrophes. They kill, maim, displace and affect millions. Inter-state wars fuel intra-state conflicts and violence. The peace agenda should not be the monopoly of the UN Security Council, and the current consensus-building process setting the post-MDG agenda is a rallying point for the global community. The human rights approach will not suffice to eliminate wars, because few are fought to protect human rights. The development agenda should therefore commit to eliminating all wars by 2030. Targets to reduce tensions and discourage wars should be included. We should act now. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. Estimation of un-used land potential for biofuels development in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Yishui [Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100026 (China); Maelardalen University, Vaesteraas SE-721 23 (Sweden); Zhao, Lixin; Meng, Haibo; Sun, Liying [Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100026 (China); Yan, Jinyue [Maelardalen University, Vaesteraas SE-721 23 (Sweden); Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-11-15

    This paper presents the current status of biofuel development and estimates the potential of un-used land for biofuel development. The potential of crops including cassava, sweet potato, sweet sorghum, sugarcane, sugar beet and Jerusalem artichoke were assessed and discussed for different regions considering the geographical conditions and features of agricultural production. If reserved land resources are explored together with substitute planting implemented and unit area yield improved, potential production of ethanol fuel will be 22 million ton in 2020. The study also recommends the use of winter idle lands for rapeseed plantation for biofuel production. The potential for production of biodiesel by rapeseed and cottonseed can reach to 3.59 million ton. (author)

  6. Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo

    2015-01-01

    Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM

  7. Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM.

  8. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Connie E.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan L.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n = 476) with prenatal drug exposures documented…

  9. A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizell, Carolyn; Malone, Linda

    2007-01-01

    It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

  10. Developing an explicit strategy towards social responsibility in the NHS: a case for including NHS managers in this strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merali, Faruk

    2006-01-01

    To explore the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR) within the UK National Health Service (NHS) and to examine how it may be developed to positively influence the psyche, behaviour and performance of NHS managers. Primary research based upon semi-structured individual face to face interviews with 20 NHS managers. Theoretical frameworks and concepts relating to organisational culture and CSR are drawn upon to discuss the findings. The NHS managers see themselves as being driven by altruistic core values. However, they feel that the public does not believe that they share the altruistic NHS value system. The study is based on a relatively small sample of NHS managers working exclusively in London and may not necessarily represent the views of managers either London-wide or nation-wide. It is suggested that an explicit recognition by the NHS of the socially responsible commitment of its managers within its CSR strategy would help challenge the existing negative public image of NHS managers and in turn improve the managers' self esteem and morale. This paper addresses the relative lacunae in research relating to public sector organisations (such as the NHS) explicitly including the role and commitment of its staff within the way it publicises its CSR strategy. This paper would be of interest to a wide readership including public sector and NHS policy formulators, NHS practitioners, academics and students.

  11. ECH system developments including the design of an intelligent fault processor on the DIII-D tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponce, D.; Lohr, J.; Tooker, J.F.; O'Neill, R.C.; Moeller, C.P.; Doane, J.L.; Noraky, S.; Dubovenko, K.; Gorelov, Y.A.; Cengher, M.; Penaflor, B.G.; Ellis, R.A.

    2011-01-01

    A new generation fault processor is in development which is intended to increase fault handling flexibility and reduce the number of incomplete DIII-D shots due to gyrotron faults. The processor, which is based upon a field programmable gate array device, will analyze signals for aberrant operation and ramp down high voltage to try to avoid hard faults. The processor will then attempt to ramp back up to an attainable operating point. The new generation fault processor will be developed during an expansion of the electron cyclotron heating (ECH) areas that will include the installation of a depressed collector gyrotron and associated equipment. Existing systems will also be upgraded. Testing of real-time control of the ECH launcher poloidal drives by the DIII-D plasma control system will be completed. The ECH control system software will be upgraded for increased scalability and to increase operator productivity. Resources permitting, all systems will receive an extra layer of interlocks for the filament and magnet power supplies, added shielding for the tank electronics, programmable filament boost shape for long pulses, and electronics upgrades for the installation of the advanced fault processor.

  12. Development and Implementation of a Battery-Electric Light-Duty Class 2a Truck including Hybrid Energy Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kollmeyer, Phillip J.

    This dissertation addresses two major related research topics: 1) the design, fabrication, modeling, and experimental testing of a battery-electric light-duty Class 2a truck; and 2) the design and evaluation of a hybrid energy storage system (HESS) for this and other vehicles. The work begins with the determination of the truck's peak power and wheel torque requirements (135kW/4900Nm). An electric traction system is then designed that consists of an interior permanent magnet synchronous machine, two-speed gearbox, three-phase motor drive, and LiFePO4 battery pack. The battery pack capacity is selected to achieve a driving range similar to the 2011 Nissan Leaf electric vehicle (73 miles). Next, the demonstrator electric traction system is built and installed in the vehicle, a Ford F150 pickup truck, and an extensive set of sensors and data acquisition equipment is installed. Detailed loss models of the battery pack, electric traction machine, and motor drive are developed and experimentally verified using the driving data. Many aspects of the truck's performance are investigated, including efficiency differences between the two-gear configuration and the optimal gear selection. The remainder focuses on the application of battery/ultracapacitor hybrid energy storage systems (HESS) to electric vehicles. First, the electric truck is modeled with the addition of an ultracapacitor pack and a dc/dc converter. Rule-based and optimal battery/ultracapacitor power-split control algorithms are then developed, and the performance improvements achieved for both algorithms are evaluated for operation at 25°C. The HESS modeling is then extended to low temperatures, where battery resistance increases substantially. To verify the accuracy of the model-predicted results, a scaled hybrid energy storage system is built and the system is tested for several drive cycles and for two temperatures. The HESS performance is then modeled for three variants of the vehicle design, including the

  13. Development of a biometric method to estimate age on hand radiographs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remy, Floriane; Hossu, Gabriela; Cendre, Romain; Micard, Emilien; Mainard-Simard, Laurence; Felblinger, Jacques; Martrille, Laurent; Lalys, Loïc

    2017-02-01

    Age estimation of living individuals aged less than 13, 18 or 21 years, which are some relevant legal ages in most European countries, is currently problematic in the forensic context. Thus, numerous methods are available for legal authorities, although their efficiency can be discussed. For those reasons, we aimed to propose a new method, based on the biometric analysis of hand bones. 451 hand radiographs of French individuals under the age of 21 were retrospectively analyzed. This total sample was divided into three subgroups bounded by the relevant legal ages previously mentioned: 0-13, 13-18 and 18-21 years. On these radiographs, we numerically applied the osteometric board method used in anthropology, by including each metacarpal and proximal phalange of the five hand rays in the smallest rectangle possible. In that we can access their length and width information thanks to a measurement protocol developed precisely for our treatment with the ORS Visual ® software. Then, a statistical analysis was performed from these biometric data: a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) evaluated the probability for an individual to belong to one of the age group (0-13, 13-18 or 18-21); and several multivariate regression models were tested for the establishment of age estimation formulas for each of these age groups. The mean Correlation Coefficient between chronological age and both lengths and widths of hand bones is equal to 0.90 for the total sample. Repeatability and reproducibility were assessed. The LDA could more easily predict the belonging to the 0-13 age group. Age can be estimated with a mean standard error which never exceeds 1 year for the 95% confidence interval. Finally, compared to the literature, we can conclude that estimating an age from the biometric information of metacarpals and proximal phalanges is promising. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Development and Statistical Validation of Spectrophotometric Methods for the Estimation of Nabumetone in Tablet Dosage Form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Rote

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Three new simple, economic spectrophotometric methods were developed and validated for the estimation of nabumetone in bulk and tablet dosage form. First method includes determination of nabumetone at absorption maxima 330 nm, second method applied was area under curve for analysis of nabumetone in the wavelength range of 326-334 nm and third method was First order derivative spectra with scaling factor 4. Beer law obeyed in the concentration range of 10-30 μg/mL for all three methods. The correlation coefficients were found to be 0.9997, 0.9998 and 0.9998 by absorption maxima, area under curve and first order derivative spectra. Results of analysis were validated statistically and by performing recovery studies. The mean percent recoveries were found satisfactory for all three methods. The developed methods were also compared statistically using one way ANOVA. The proposed methods have been successfully applied for the estimation of nabumetone in bulk and pharmaceutical tablet dosage form.

  15. Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

    2015-12-31

    A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html) and Vermont (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff.

  16. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasai, T.; Murakami, K.; Kato, S.; Matsunaga, T.; Saigusa, N.; Hiraki, K.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. However, most studies, which aimed at the estimation of carbon exchanges between ecosystem and atmosphere, remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. In this study, we show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. As methodology for computing the exchanges, we 1) developed a global 1km-grid climate and satellite dataset based on the approach in Setoyama and Sasai (2013); 2) used the satellite-driven biosphere model (Biosphere model integrating Eco-physiological And Mechanistic approaches using Satellite data: BEAMS) (Sasai et al., 2005, 2007, 2011); 3) simulated the carbon exchanges by using the new dataset and BEAMS by the use of a supercomputer that includes 1280 CPU and 320 GPGPU cores (GOSAT RCF of NIES). As a result, we could develop a global uniform system for realistically estimating terrestrial carbon exchange, and evaluate net ecosystem production in each community level; leading to obtain highly detailed understanding of terrestrial carbon exchanges.

  17. Comparative estimates of Kamchatka territory development in the context of northern territories of foreign countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Gennadyevich Shelomentsev

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The article promotes an approach to assess the prospects of regional development on the basis of the synthesis of comparative and historical methods of research. According to the authors, the comparative analysis of the similar functioning of the socio-economic systems forms deeper understanding what part factors and methods of state regulation play in regional development, and also their place in socio-economic and geopolitical space. The object of the research is Kamchatka territory as the region playing strategically important role in socio-economic development of Russia and also northern territories of the other countries comparable with Kamchatka on the bass if environmental conditions such as Iceland, Greenland, USA (Alaska, Canada (Yukon, and Japan (Hokkaido. On the basis of allocation of the general signs of regional socio-economic systems and creation of the regional development models forming the basis for comparative estimates, the article analyses the territories, which are comparable on the base of climatic, geographic, economic, geopolitical conditions, but thus significantly different due to the level of economic familiarity. The generalization of the extensive statistical material characterizing various spheres of activity at these territories, including branch structure of the economy, its infrastructure security, demographic situation, the budgetary and financial sphere are given. It allows defining the crucial features of the regional economy development models. In the conclusion, the authors emphasize that ignoring of the essential relations among the regional system elements and internal and external factors deprives a research of historical and socio-economic basis.

  18. Demonstrating an Approach for Including Pesticide Use in Life Cycle Assessment: Estimating Human and Ecosystem Toxicity of Pesticide Use in Midwest Corn Farming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purpose This study demonstrates an approach to assess human health and ecotoxicity impacts of pesticide use by including multiple environmental pathways and various exposure routes using the case of corn grown for bio-based fuel or chemical production in US Midwestern states.Meth...

  19. Demonstrating an approach for including pesticide use in life-cycle assessment: Estimating human and ecosystem toxicity of pesticide use in Midwest corn farming

    Science.gov (United States)

    PurposeThis study demonstrates an approach to assess human health and ecotoxicity impacts of pesticide use by including multiple environmental pathways and various exposure routes using the case of corn grown for bio-based fuel or chemical production in US Midwestern states.Metho...

  20. Development of a fluidized bed agglomeration modeling methodology to include particle-level heterogeneities in ash chemistry and granular physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadilkar, Aditi B.

    The utility of fluidized bed reactors for combustion and gasification can be enhanced if operational issues such as agglomeration are mitigated. The monetary and efficiency losses could be avoided through a mechanistic understanding of the agglomeration process and prediction of operational conditions that promote agglomeration. Pilot-scale experimentation prior to operation for each specific condition can be cumbersome and expensive. So the development of a mathematical model would aid predictions. With this motivation, the study comprised of the following model development stages- 1) development of an agglomeration modeling methodology based on binary particle collisions, 2) study of heterogeneities in ash chemical composition and gaseous atmosphere, 3) computation of a distribution of particle collision frequencies based on granular physics for a poly-disperse particle size distribution, 4) combining the ash chemistry and granular physics inputs to obtain agglomerate growth probabilities and 5) validation of the modeling methodology. The modeling methodology comprised of testing every binary particle collision in the system for sticking, based on the extent of dissipation of the particles' kinetic energy through viscous dissipation by slag-liquid (molten ash) covering the particles. In the modeling methodology developed in this study, thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are used to estimate the amount of slag-liquid in the system, and the changes in particle collision frequencies are accounted for by continuously tracking the number density of the various particle sizes. In this study, the heterogeneities in chemical composition of fuel ash were studied by separating the bulk fuel into particle classes that are rich in specific minerals. FactSage simulations were performed on two bituminous coals and an anthracite to understand the effect of particle-level heterogeneities on agglomeration. The mineral matter behavior of these constituent classes was studied

  1. Development of seedless fruits mutants in citrus including tangerine (C. reticulata) and pummelo (C. grandis) through induced mutations and biotechnology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somsri, S. [Horticulture Research Institute, Department of Agriculture (DOA), Chatuchak, Bangkok (Thailand); Jompook, P. [Department of Applied Radiation and Isotopes, Faculty of Science, Kasetsart University, Chatuchak, Bangkok (Thailand); Kanhom, P. [Phare Horticultural Research Center, Muang, Phare (Thailand); Thayamanont, P.; Meecharoen, S. [Pichit Horticultural Research Center, Muang, Pichit (Thailand); Kumcha, U. [Srisaket Horticultural Research Center, Muang, Srisaket (Thailand)

    2009-05-15

    The development of seedless fruit mutants in citrus, including Tangerine (C. reticulata) and Pummelo (C. grandis), through induced mutation and biotechnology was studied at the Gamma Irradiation Service and Nuclear Technology Center, Pichit and Phare Horticultural Research Center for 4 years (August 2000 to September 2004). The results showed successful induction of mutants with gamma irradiation using both chronic and acute procedures for pot plants, scions and in vitro plantlets of tangerine (Citrus reticulata var. Shogun and Sai Nam Puaeng) and pummelo (Citrus grandis viz. Kao Thong Dee). MS medium with 2 mgL{sup -1} of BA was found to be the most suitable medium for shoot proliferation. The seedlings were sub-cultured at least 4 times, and then they were treated with acute and chronic irradiation. Shoot induction from M{sub 1}V{sub 0} to M{sub 1}V{sub 4} generation was performed in basic MS medium with 2 mgL{sup -1} added BA. Rooting was induced in the M{sub 1}V{sub 4} in halfstrength MS enriched with BA 2 mgL{sup -1}. Later, the shoots were excised and grafted on mature plants or the plantlets directly transferred in the field and later the fruits from mature trees were evaluated for seedlessness in M{sub 1}V{sub 4} at Pichit and Phare Horticultural Research Center. (author)

  2. Laboratory Studies of the Reactive Chemistry and Changing CCN Properties of Secondary Organic Aerosol, Including Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scot Martin

    2013-01-31

    The chemical evolution of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles and how this evolution alters their cloud-nucleating properties were studied. Simplified forms of full Koehler theory were targeted, specifically forms that contain only those aspects essential to describing the laboratory observations, because of the requirement to minimize computational burden for use in integrated climate and chemistry models. The associated data analysis and interpretation have therefore focused on model development in the framework of modified kappa-Koehler theory. Kappa is a single parameter describing effective hygroscopicity, grouping together several separate physicochemical parameters (e.g., molar volume, surface tension, and van't Hoff factor) that otherwise must be tracked and evaluated in an iterative full-Koehler equation in a large-scale model. A major finding of the project was that secondary organic materials produced by the oxidation of a range of biogenic volatile organic compounds for diverse conditions have kappa values bracketed in the range of 0.10 +/- 0.05. In these same experiments, somewhat incongruently there was significant chemical variation in the secondary organic material, especially oxidation state, as was indicated by changes in the particle mass spectra. Taken together, these findings then support the use of kappa as a simplified yet accurate general parameter to represent the CCN activation of secondary organic material in large-scale atmospheric and climate models, thereby greatly reducing the computational burden while simultaneously including the most recent mechanistic findings of laboratory studies.

  3. Development of a two-dimensional simulation code (koad) including atomic processes for beam direct energy conversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Y.; Yoshikawa, K.; Hattori, Y.

    1987-01-01

    A two-dimensional simulation code for the beam direct energy conversion called KVAD (Kyoto University Advanced DART) including various loss mechanisms has been developed, and shown excellent agreement with the authors' experiments using the He + beams. The beam direct energy converter (BDC) is the device to recover the kinetic energy of unneutralized ions in the neutral beam injection (NBI) system directly into electricity. The BDC is very important and essential not only to the improvements of NBI system efficiency, but also to the relaxation of high heat flux problems on the beam dump with increase of injection energies. So far no simulation code could have successfully predicted BDC experimental results. The KUAD code applies, an optimized algorithm for vector processing, the finite element method (FEM) for potential calculation, and a semi-automatic method for spatial segmentations. Since particle trajectories in the KVAD code are analytically solved, very high speed tracings of the particle could be achieved by introducing an adjacent element matrix to identify the neighboring triangle elements and electrodes. Ion space charges are also analytically calculated by the Cloud in Cell (CIC) method, as well as electron space charges. Power losses due to atomic processes can be also evaluated in the KUAD code

  4. Development of internal dose calculation model and the data base updated IDES (Internal Dose Estimation System)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hongo, Shozo; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Takeshita, Hiroshi; Iwai, Satoshi.

    1994-01-01

    A computer program named IDES is developed by BASIC language for a personal computer and translated to C language of engineering work station. The IDES carries out internal dose calculations described in ICRP Publication 30 and it installs the program of transformation method which is an empirical method to estimate absorbed fractions of different physiques from ICRP Referenceman. The program consists of three tasks: productions of SAF for Japanese including children, productions of SEE, Specific Effective Energy, and calculation of effective dose equivalents. Each task and corresponding data file appear as a module so as to meet future requirement for revisions of the related data. Usefulness of IDES is discussed by exemplifying the case that 5 age groups of Japanese intake orally Co-60 or Mn-54. (author)

  5. An overview of J estimation schemes developed for the RSE-M code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delliou, Patrick Le; Sermage, Jean-Philippe; Barthelet, Bruno; Michel, Bruno; Gilles, Philippe

    2003-01-01

    The RSE-M Code provides rules and requirements for in-service inspection of French Pressurized Water Reactor power plant components. The RSE-M Code gives non mandatory guidance for analytical evaluation of flaws. To calculate the stress intensity factors in pipes and shells containing semi-elliptical surface defects, influence coefficients are given for a wide range of geometrical parameters. To calculate the J integral for surface cracks in pipes and elbows, simplified methods have been developed for mechanical loads (in-plane bending and torsion moments, pressure), thermal loads as well as for the combination of these loads. This paper presents an overview of the J-estimation schemes presently available: a circumferential surface crack in a straight pipe (already included in the 2000 Addenda of the Code), a circumferential surface crack in a tapered transition, a longitudinal surface crack in a straight pipe, a longitudinal surface crack in the mid-section of an elbow. (author)

  6. Characterisation of the legume SERK-NIK gene superfamily including splice variants: Implications for development and defence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rose Ray J

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background SOMATIC EMBRYOGENESIS RECEPTOR-LIKE KINASE (SERK genes are part of the regulation of diverse signalling events in plants. Current evidence shows SERK proteins function both in developmental and defence signalling pathways, which occur in response to both peptide and steroid ligands. SERKs are generally present as small gene families in plants, with five SERK genes in Arabidopsis. Knowledge gained primarily through work on Arabidopsis SERKs indicates that these proteins probably interact with a wide range of other receptor kinases and form a fundamental part of many essential signalling pathways. The SERK1 gene of the model legume, Medicago truncatula functions in somatic and zygotic embryogenesis, and during many phases of plant development, including nodule and lateral root formation. However, other SERK genes in M. truncatula and other legumes are largely unidentified and their functions unknown. Results To aid the understanding of signalling pathways in M. truncatula, we have identified and annotated the SERK genes in this species. Using degenerate PCR and database mining, eight more SERK-like genes have been identified and these have been shown to be expressed. The amplification and sequencing of several different PCR products from one of these genes is consistent with the presence of splice variants. Four of the eight additional genes identified are upregulated in cultured leaf tissue grown on embryogenic medium. The sequence information obtained from M. truncatula was used to identify SERK family genes in the recently sequenced soybean (Glycine max genome. Conclusions A total of nine SERK or SERK-like genes have been identified in M. truncatula and potentially 17 in soybean. Five M. truncatula SERK genes arose from duplication events not evident in soybean and Lotus. The presence of splice variants has not been previously reported in a SERK gene. Upregulation of four newly identified SERK genes (in addition to the

  7. Spectral element modelling of seismic wave propagation in visco-elastoplastic media including excess-pore pressure development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oral, Elif; Gélis, Céline; Bonilla, Luis Fabián; Delavaud, Elise

    2017-12-01

    Numerical modelling of seismic wave propagation, considering soil nonlinearity, has become a major topic in seismic hazard studies when strong shaking is involved under particular soil conditions. Indeed, when strong ground motion propagates in saturated soils, pore pressure is another important parameter to take into account when successive phases of contractive and dilatant soil behaviour are expected. Here, we model 1-D seismic wave propagation in linear and nonlinear media using the spectral element numerical method. The study uses a three-component (3C) nonlinear rheology and includes pore-pressure excess. The 1-D-3C model is used to study the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake (ML 6.6), which was recorded at the Wildlife Refuge Liquefaction Array, USA. The data of this event present strong soil nonlinearity involving pore-pressure effects. The ground motion is numerically modelled for different assumptions on soil rheology and input motion (1C versus 3C), using the recorded borehole signals as input motion. The computed acceleration-time histories show low-frequency amplification and strong high-frequency damping due to the development of pore pressure in one of the soil layers. Furthermore, the soil is found to be more nonlinear and more dilatant under triaxial loading compared to the classical 1C analysis, and significant differences in surface displacements are observed between the 1C and 3C approaches. This study contributes to identify and understand the dominant phenomena occurring in superficial layers, depending on local soil properties and input motions, conditions relevant for site-specific studies.

  8. Theories of estimation of differentiation for regulation of social-economic development of the city agglomeration

    OpenAIRE

    Anikina, Yu; Litovchenko, V.

    2009-01-01

    Theories of estimation of differentiation of social-economic development of territorial units in city agglomeration are discussed in the article. Approbation of the given methods helped find out successfulness of the regulation of municipal development of administrative-territorial units in Krasnoyarsk agglomeration, set the goals of regional policy on peculiarities of development of the phenomenon of differentiation.

  9. Brine migration resulting from CO2 injection into saline aquifers – An approach to risk estimation including various levels of uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Lena; Binning, Philip John; Oladyshkin, Sergey

    2012-01-01

    resulting from displaced brine. Quantifying risk on the basis of numerical simulations requires consideration of different kinds of uncertainties and this study considers both, scenario uncertainty and statistical uncertainty. Addressing scenario uncertainty involves expert opinion on relevant geological......Comprehensive risk assessment is a major task for large-scale projects such as geological storage of CO2. Basic hazards are damage to the integrity of caprocks, leakage of CO2, or reduction of groundwater quality due to intrusion of fluids. This study focuses on salinization of freshwater aquifers...... for large-scale 3D models including complex physics. Therefore, we apply a model reduction based on arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion combined with probabilistic collocation method. It is shown that, dependent on data availability, both types of uncertainty can be equally significant. The presented study...

  10. New Theoretical Developments in Exploring Electronically Excited States: Including Localized Configuration Interaction Singles and Application to Large Helium Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Closser, Kristina Danielle

    superpositions of atomic states with surface states appearing close to the atomic excitation energies and interior states being blue shifted by up to ≈2 eV. The dynamics resulting from excitation of He_7 were subsequently explored using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD). These simulations were performed with classical adiabatic dynamics coupled to a new state-following algorithm on CIS potential energy surfaces. Most clusters were found to completely dissociate and resulted in a single excited atomic state (90%), however, some trajectories formed bound, He*2 (3%), and a few yielded excited trimers (<0.5%). Comparisons were made with available experimental information on much larger clusters. Various applications of this state following algorithm are also presented. In addition to AIMD, these include excited-state geometry optimization and minimal energy path finding via the growing string method. When using state following we demonstrate that more physical results can be obtained with AIMD calculations. Also, the optimized geometries of three excited states of cytosine, two of which were not found without state following, and the minimal energy path between the lowest two singlet excited states of protonated formaldimine are offered as example applications. Finally, to address large clusters, a local variation of CIS was developed. This method exploits the properties of absolutely localized molecular orbitals (ALMOs) to limit the total number of excitations to scaling only linearly with cluster size, which results in formal scaling with the third power of the system size. The derivation of the equations and design of the algorithm are discussed in detail, and computational timings as well as a pilot application to the size dependence of the helium cluster spectrum are presented.

  11. Developing Singapore Driving Cycle for passenger cars to estimate fuel consumption and vehicular emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Sze-Hwee; Wong, Yiik-Diew; Chang, Victor Wei-Chung

    2014-11-01

    Singapore has pledged to attain 7-11% Business-As-Usual carbon emissions reduction by 2020. Road transport sector is a significant source of carbon emissions, estimated to be the third largest sector in Singapore. A current gap in environmental evaluation for road transport activities in Singapore is the lack of a representative driving cycle for passenger cars (64% of the total population of 974,170 vehicles). This Singapore Driving Cycle (SDC) is hence developed for Singapore roads and traffic conditions. A chase-car (instrumented vehicle) was used to collect on-road data along 12 designed routes, and circulation driving on highly utilized arterial roads (including those in Central Business District (CBD) and both inner and outer ring roads fringing the CBD area). The SDC was thus hence constructed, with consideration of road type proportions, time periods and desired distance, duration and peak-lull proportion. In essence, the SDC is a 2400-s speed-time profile to represent the driving pattern for passenger car in Singapore. Microscopic estimation model (CMEM) shows that, as compared to SDC, the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) underestimates most of the vehicular emissions (fuel, CO2, HC and NOx by 5%, 5%, 22% and 47%, respectively) and overestimates CO by 8%. The SDC is thus more suitable than the NEDC that is currently in use in Singapore; the SDC can be used to generate more accurate fuel consumption and emissions ratings for various uses (for example, inventory of vehicular emissions and fuel economy labelling).

  12. Development and Cross-Validation of Equation for Estimating Percent Body Fat of Korean Adults According to Body Mass Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoyong Sung

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background : Using BMI as an independent variable is the easiest way to estimate percent body fat. Thus far, few studies have investigated the development and cross-validation of an equation for estimating the percent body fat of Korean adults according to the BMI. The goals of this study were the development and cross-validation of an equation for estimating the percent fat of representative Korean adults using the BMI. Methods : Samples were obtained from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2008 and 2011. The samples from 2008-2009 and 2010-2011 were labeled as the validation group (n=10,624 and the cross-validation group (n=8,291, respectively. The percent fat was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and the body mass index, gender, and age were included as independent variables to estimate the measured percent fat. The coefficient of determination (R², standard error of estimation (SEE, and total error (TE were calculated to examine the accuracy of the developed equation. Results : The cross-validated R² was 0.731 for Model 1 and 0.735 for Model 2. The SEE was 3.978 for Model 1 and 3.951 for Model 2. The equations developed in this study are more accurate for estimating percent fat of the cross-validation group than those previously published by other researchers. Conclusion : The newly developed equations are comparatively accurate for the estimation of the percent fat of Korean adults.

  13. Meta-analysis of the INSIG2 association with obesity including 74,345 individuals: does heterogeneity of estimates relate to study design?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heid, Iris M; Huth, Cornelia; Loos, Ruth J F

    2009-01-01

    with subjects selected for conditions related to a better health status ('healthy population', HP), and obesity studies (OB). We tested five hypotheses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. The meta-analysis of 27 studies on Caucasian adults (n = 66,213) combining the different study designs did......The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was identified for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)) in one of the first genome-wide association studies, but replications were inconsistent. We collected statistics from 34 studies (n = 74,345), including general population (GP) studies, population-based studies...... not support overall association of the CC-genotype with obesity, yielding an odds ratio (OR) of 1.05 (p-value = 0.27). The I(2) measure of 41% (p-value = 0.015) indicated between-study heterogeneity. Restricting to GP studies resulted in a declined I(2) measure of 11% (p-value = 0.33) and an OR of 1.10 (p...

  14. Development of a versatile enrichment analysis tool reveals associations between the maternal brain and mental health disorders, including autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A recent study of lateral septum (LS) suggested a large number of autism-related genes with altered expression in the postpartum state. However, formally testing the findings for enrichment of autism-associated genes proved to be problematic with existing software. Many gene-disease association databases have been curated which are not currently incorporated in popular, full-featured enrichment tools, and the use of custom gene lists in these programs can be difficult to perform and interpret. As a simple alternative, we have developed the Modular Single-set Enrichment Test (MSET), a minimal tool that enables one to easily evaluate expression data for enrichment of any conceivable gene list of interest. Results The MSET approach was validated by testing several publicly available expression data sets for expected enrichment in areas of autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and arthritis. Using nine independent, unique autism gene lists extracted from association databases and two recent publications, a striking consensus of enrichment was detected within gene expression changes in LS of postpartum mice. A network of 160 autism-related genes was identified, representing developmental processes such as synaptic plasticity, neuronal morphogenesis, and differentiation. Additionally, maternal LS displayed enrichment for genes associated with bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, ADHD, and depression. Conclusions The transition to motherhood includes the most fundamental social bonding event in mammals and features naturally occurring changes in sociability. Some individuals with autism, schizophrenia, or other mental health disorders exhibit impaired social traits. Genes involved in these deficits may also contribute to elevated sociability in the maternal brain. To date, this is the first study to show a significant, quantitative link between the maternal brain and mental health disorders using large scale gene expression data. Thus, the

  15. Analysis of safety information for nuclear power plants and development of source term estimation program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Woon; Choi, Seong Soo; Park, Jin Hee

    1999-12-01

    Current CARE(Computerized Advisory System for Radiological Emergency) in KINS(Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety) has no STES(Source Term Estimation System) which links between SIDS(Safety Information Display System) and FADAS(Following Accident Dose Assessment System). So in this study, STES is under development. STES system is the system that estimates the source term based on the safety information provided by SIDS. Estimated source term is given to FADAS as an input for estimation of environmental effect of radiation. Through this first year project STES for the Kori 3,4 and Younggwang 1,2 has been developed. Since there is no CARE for Wolsong(PHWR) plants yet, CARE for Wolsong is under construction. The safety parameters are selected and the safety information display screens and the alarm logic for plant status change are developed for Wolsong Unit 2 based on the design documents for CANDU plants

  16. Development and Application of Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Estimating Atrazine Concentration Distributions in Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Steven J.; Crawford, Charles G.; Gilliom, Robert J.

    2004-01-01

    Regression models were developed for predicting atrazine concentration distributions in rivers and streams, using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology. Separate regression equations were derived for each of nine percentiles of the annual distribution of atrazine concentrations and for the annual time-weighted mean atrazine concentration. In addition, seasonal models were developed for two specific periods of the year--the high season, when the highest atrazine concentrations are expected in streams, and the low season, when concentrations are expected to be low or undetectable. Various nationally available watershed parameters were used as explanatory variables, including atrazine use intensity, soil characteristics, hydrologic parameters, climate and weather variables, land use, and agricultural management practices. Concentration data from 112 river and stream stations sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment and National Stream Quality Accounting Network Programs were used for computing the concentration percentiles and mean concentrations used as the response variables in regression models. Tobit regression methods, using maximum likelihood estimation, were used for developing the models because some of the concentration values used for the response variables were censored (reported as less than a detection threshold). Data from 26 stations not used for model development were used for model validation. The annual models accounted for 62 to 77 percent of the variability in concentrations among the 112 model development stations. Atrazine use intensity (the amount of atrazine used in the watershed divided by watershed area) was the most important explanatory variable in all models, but additional watershed parameters significantly increased the amount of variability explained by the models. Predicted concentrations from all 10 models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentrations at most

  17. Development of hybrid lifecycle cost estimating tool (HLCET) for manufacturing influenced design tradeoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirirojvisuth, Apinut

    concept, the additional manufacturing knowledge can be used to identify a more accurate lifecycle cost and facilitate higher fidelity tradeoffs during conceptual and preliminary design. Advanced Composite Cost Estimating Model (ACCEM) is employed as a process-based cost component to replace the original TCM result of the composite part production cost. The reason for the replacement is that TCM estimates production costs from part weights as a result of subtractive manufacturing of metallic origin such as casting, forging, and machining processes. A complexity factor can sometimes be adjusted to reflect different types of metal and machine settings. The TCM assumption, however, gives erroneous results when applied to additive processes like those of composite manufacturing. Another innovative aspect of this research is the introduction of a work measurement technique called Maynard Operation Sequence Technique (MOST) to be used, similarly to Activity-Based Costing (ABC) approach, to estimate manufacturing time of a part by virtue of breaking down the operations occurred during its production. ABC allows a realistic determination of cost incurred in each activity, as opposed to using a traditional method of time estimation by analogy or using response surface equations from historical process data. The MOST concept provides a tailored study of an individual process typically required for a new, innovative design. Nevertheless, the MOST idea has some challenges, one of which is its requirement to build a new process from ground up. The process development requires a Subject Matter Expertise (SME) in manufacturing method of the particular design. The SME must have also a comprehensive understanding of the MOST system so that the correct parameters are chosen. In practice, these knowledge requirements may demand people from outside of the design discipline and a priori training of MOST. To relieve the constraint, this study includes an entirely new sub-system architecture

  18. Using Intervention Mapping to develop a programme to prevent sexually transmittable infections, including HIV, among heterosexual migrant men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfers, Mireille EG; van den Hoek, Caty; Brug, Johannes; de Zwart, Onno

    2007-01-01

    Background There is little experience with carefully developed interventions in the HIV/STI prevention field aimed at adult heterosexual target groups in the Netherlands. The ability to apply intervention development protocols, like Intervention Mapping, in daily practice outside of academia, is a matter of concern. An urgent need also exists for interventions aimed at the prevention of STI in migrant populations in the Netherlands. This article describes the theory and evidence based development of HIV/STI prevention interventions by the Municipal Public Health Service Rotterdam Area (MPHS), the Netherlands, for heterosexual migrant men with Surinamese, Dutch-Caribbean, Cape Verdean, Turkish and Moroccan backgrounds. Methods First a needs assessment was carried out. Then, a literature review was done, key figures were interviewed and seven group discussions were held. Subsequently, the results were translated into specific objectives ("change objectives") and used in intervention development for two subgroups: men with an Afro-Caribbean background and unmarried men with a Turkish and Moroccan background. A matrix of change objectives was made for each subgroup and suitable theoretical methods and practical strategies were selected. Culturally-tailored interventions were designed and were pre-tested among the target groups. Results This development process resulted in two interventions for specific subgroups that were appreciated by both the target groups and the migrant prevention workers. The project took place in collaboration with a university center, which provided an opportunity to get expert advice at every step of the Intervention Mapping process. At relevant points of the development process, migrant health educators and target group members provided advice and feedback on the draft intervention materials. Conclusion This intervention development project indicates that careful well-informed intervention development using Intervention Mapping is feasible in

  19. Development of paint area estimation software for ship compartments and structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doo-Yeoun Cho

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The painting process of large ships is an intense manual operation that typically comprises 9–12% of the total shipbuilding cost. Accordingly, shipbuilders need to estimate the required amount of anti-corrosive coatings and painting resources for inventory and cost control. This study aims to develop a software system which enables the shipbuilders to estimate paint area using existing 3D CAD ship structural models. The geometric information of the ships structure are extracted from the existing shipbuilding CAD/CAM system and used to create painting zones. After specifying the painting zones, users can generate the paint faces by clipping structural parts inside each zone. Finally, the paint resources may be obtained from the product of the paint areas and required paint thickness. Implementing the developed software system to real shipbuilders' operations has contributed to improved productivity, faster resource estimation, better accuracy, and fewer coating defects over their conventional manual calculation methods for painting resource estimation.

  20. Developing a methodological framework for estimating water productivity indicators in water scarce regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubako, S. T.; Fullerton, T. M.; Walke, A.; Collins, T.; Mubako, G.; Walker, W. S.

    2014-12-01

    Water productivity is an area of growing interest in assessing the impact of human economic activities on water resources, especially in arid regions. Indicators of water productivity can assist water users in evaluating sectoral water use efficiency, identifying sources of pressure on water resources, and in supporting water allocation rationale under scarcity conditions. This case study for the water-scarce Middle Rio Grande River Basin aims to develop an environmental-economic accounting approach for water use in arid river basins through a methodological framework that relates water use to human economic activities impacting regional water resources. Water uses are coupled to economic transactions, and the complex but mutual relations between various water using sectors estimated. A comparison is made between the calculated water productivity indicators and representative cost/price per unit volume of water for the main water use sectors. Although it contributes very little to regional economic output, preliminary results confirm that Irrigation is among the sectors with the largest direct water use intensities. High economic value and low water use intensity economic sectors in the study region include Manufacturing, Mining, and Steam Electric Power. Water accounting challenges revealed by the study include differences in water management regimes between jurisdictions, and little understanding of the impact of major economic activities on the interaction between surface and groundwater systems in this region. A more comprehensive assessment would require the incorporation of environmental and social sustainability indicators to the calculated water productivity indicators.

  1. Developing a weighting strategy to include mobile phone numbers into an ongoing population health survey using an overlapping dual-frame design with limited benchmark information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Margo L; Ferguson, Raymond A; Hughes, Phil J; Steel, David G

    2014-09-04

    In 2012 mobile phone numbers were included into the ongoing New South Wales Population Health Survey (NSWPHS) using an overlapping dual-frame design. Previously in the NSWPHS the sample was selected using random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phone numbers. The survey was undertaken using computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). The weighting strategy needed to be significantly expanded to manage the differing probabilities of selection by frame, including that of children of mobile-only phone users, and to adjust for the increased chance of selection of dual-phone users. This paper describes the development of the final weighting strategy to properly combine the data from two overlapping sample frames accounting for the fact that population benchmarks for the different sampling frames were not available at the state or regional level. Estimates of the number of phone numbers for the landline and mobile phone frames used to calculate the differing probabilities of selection by frame, for New South Wales (NSW) and by stratum, were obtained by apportioning Australian estimates as none were available for NSW. The weighting strategy was then developed by calculating person selection probabilities, selection weights, applying a constant composite factor to the dual-phone users sample weights, and benchmarking to the latest NSW population by age group, sex and stratum. Data from the NSWPHS for the first quarter of 2012 was used to test the weighting strategy. This consisted of data on 3395 respondents with 2171 (64%) from the landline frame and 1224 (36%) from the mobile frame. However, in order to calculate the weights, data needed to be available for all core weighting variables and so 3378 respondents, 2933 adults and 445 children, had sufficient data to be included. Average person weights were 3.3 times higher for the mobile-only respondents, 1.3 times higher for the landline-only respondents and 1.7 times higher for dual-phone users in the mobile frame

  2. Early-Life events, including mode of delivery and type of feeding, siblings and gender, shape the developing gut microbiota

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martin, Rocio; Makino, Hiroshi; Yavuz, Aysun Cetinyurek; Ben-Amor, Kaouther; Roelofs, Mieke; Ishikawa, Eiji; Kubota, Hiroyuki; Swinkels, Sophie; Sakai, Takafumi; Oishi, Kenji; Kushiro, Akira; Knol, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Colonization of the infant gut is believed to be critically important for a healthy growth as it influences gut maturation, metabolic, immune and brain development in early life. Understanding factors that influence this process is important, since an altered colonization has been associated with

  3. Social Licence to Operate through a gender lens : The challenges of including women’s interests in development assistance projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jijelava, David; Vanclay, Frank

    2014-01-01

    The paper analyses the concept of social licence to operate from a gender perspective. We examine the challenges associated with obtaining a gender-aware social licence for development assistance organizations working in conservative, traditional rural societies. We argue that during project

  4. Geocraft as a means to support the development of smart cities, getting the people of the place involved - youth included -

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, Henk; Fruijtier, Steven; Dias, Eduardo; Hettinga, Sanne; Opmeer, Mark; van Leeuwen, Willemijn S.; Linde, Marianne; Bos, Steven; Vaughan, Rubio; van Kaam, Heidy; van Manen, Niels; Fruijtier, Ceciel

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: In this paper we present Geocraft, a Geo-ICT framework meant to provide the information needed to support the development of smart cities in an accessible and user-friendly way. We explored whether Geocraft could be an effective way to get the people of the place, especially youth, involved

  5. Development of the preparation technology of macroporous sorbent for industrial off-gas treatment including 14C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Il Hoon; Cho, Young Hyun; Park, Guen Il; Kim, In Tae; Kim, June Hyung; Ahn, Byung Kil

    2001-01-01

    For environmental and health effects due to increasing levels of pollution in the atmosphere, it is necessary to develop environmentally sound technologies for the treatment of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , CFC, etc.) and acid gases (SOx, NOx, etc.). Specifically, advanced technology for CO 2 capturing is currently one of the most important environmental issues in worldwide. 14 CO 2 , specially which has been gradually emerging issue in the nuclear facilities, is generated about 330 ppm from the CANDU (Canadian Deuterium Uranium Reactor) nuclear power plant and the DUPIC (Direct Use of spent PWR fuel in CANDU reactors) process which is the process of spent fuel treatment. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop the most efficient treatment technology of CO 2 capture by various lime materials in semi- or dry process, it should be also considering a removal performance, waste recycling and safety of disposal. In order to develop a highly active slaked lime as a sorbent for CO 2 and high temperature desulfurization, macroporous slaked lime is necessarily prepared by modified swelling process and equipment, which was developed under carrying out this project. And also for the optimal removal process of off-gases the removal performance tests of various sorbents and the effects of relative humidity and bed depth on the removal capacity must be considered

  6. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

    2016-10-15

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

  7. Development of the preparation technology of macroporous sorbent for industrial off-gas treatment including {sup 14}C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Il Hoon; Cho, Young Hyun; Park, Guen Il; Kim, In Tae; Kim, June Hyung; Ahn, Byung Kil

    2001-01-01

    For environmental and health effects due to increasing levels of pollution in the atmosphere, it is necessary to develop environmentally sound technologies for the treatment of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, CFC, etc.) and acid gases (SOx, NOx, etc.). Specifically, advanced technology for CO{sub 2} capturing is currently one of the most important environmental issues in worldwide. {sup 14}CO{sub 2}, specially which has been gradually emerging issue in the nuclear facilities, is generated about 330 ppm from the CANDU (Canadian Deuterium Uranium Reactor) nuclear power plant and the DUPIC (Direct Use of spent PWR fuel in CANDU reactors) process which is the process of spent fuel treatment. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop the most efficient treatment technology of CO{sub 2} capture by various lime materials in semi- or dry process, it should be also considering a removal performance, waste recycling and safety of disposal. In order to develop a highly active slaked lime as a sorbent for CO{sub 2} and high temperature desulfurization, macroporous slaked lime is necessarily prepared by modified swelling process and equipment, which was developed under carrying out this project. And also for the optimal removal process of off-gases the removal performance tests of various sorbents and the effects of relative humidity and bed depth on the removal capacity must be considered.

  8. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, In Hyo; Son, Han Seong; Kim, Si Won; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system

  9. Development of an Estimating Procedure for the Annual PLAN Process - with Special Emphasis on the Estimating Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lichtenberg, Steen

    2003-01-01

    This research study deals with the PLAN 2000 procedure. This complex annual estimating procedure is based on the Swedish law on financing, 1992:1537. It requires the Swedish Nuclear Power inspectorate, SKI, to submit to the Government a fully supported annual proposal for the following year's unit fee for nuclear generated electricity to be paid by the owners of the Swedish nuclear power plants. The function of this Fund, KAF, is to finance the future Swedish decommissioning programme. The underlying reason for the study is current criticism of the existing procedure, not least of the composition and working conditions of the analysis group. The purpose of the study is to improve the procedure. The aim is (1) to maximise the realism and neutrality of the necessary estimates in order to allow the KAF Fund to grow steadily at the current rate to the desired target size, allowing it to pay all relevant costs associated with this large decommissioning programme; (2) to do this with a controlled degree of safety; (3) to improve the transparency of the whole procedure in order to avoid any distrust of the procedure and its results. The scope covers all technical and statistical issues; and to some degree also the directly related organisational aspects, notably in respect of the present law and its administration. However, some details are dealt with which seem contrary to the aim of the law. Since 1996, SKI has delegated to the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., SKB, the task of performing the basic part of the necessary annual estimating procedure. SKI has then evaluated and supplemented the base estimate before the drafting of the final proposals for the Government and the Board of the Fund, KAFS. Some basic requirements are crucial to the quality of the result of the study: (1) full identification of all potential sources of major uncertainty and the subsequent correct handling of these, (2) balanced and unbiased quantitative evaluation of uncertain

  10. Dynamics of waterflooding massive oil deposits in the Chechen Ingush ASSR, including fissured reservoirs in the late stages of development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tatashev, K.Kh.; Soboleva, G.N.; Tagunova, A.V.

    1979-01-01

    In 1956 in the Chechen Ingush ASSR a number of massive oil deposits located in fissured cavernous Upper Cretaceous limestone were developed. The deposits were developed by water-oil displacement from the edges and pericline toward the dome of the structure using the natural water pressure drive as well as artificial marginal flooding. The great oil-bearing capacity, the good hydrodynamic link with the deposit, the close magnitude of oil viscosity and water under the layer conditions and the significant difference in their density (0.4-0.5 g/cm/sup 3/) practically guarantees pistonlike oil displacement. Based on the deposit's geologic-physical characteristics, the late stage of development may be characterized by noncontinuous time and a sharp increase in well waterflooding to maintain full flooding. However, the data obtained from working the field suggest that a sharp increase in waterflooding will be substituted by a slow increase, by stabilization and possibly even a decrease in the percentage of water over the last 3-6 years. This occurred in a number of cases where measures were taken to limit the liquid flow, to periodically operate the well with isolated waterflooding and pereclinal perforation at intervals. This also occurred in a number of cases where the rate of fluid yield was naturally lowered by decreasing the number of producing wells due to waterflooding and disengagement. To more completely extract the oil from relatively low permeable areas of the deposits and to develop them in the later stages, it is useful to use a slow tempo once all wells have been brought to perclinal interval operation.

  11. Development and characterisation of a novel composite electrode material consisting of poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) including Au nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zanardi, C.; Terzi, F.; Pigani, L.; Heras, A.; Colina, A.; Lopez-Palacios, J.; Seeber, R.

    2008-01-01

    Composite material consisting of poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT), including Au nanoparticles encapsulated by N-dodecyl-N,N-dimethyl-3-ammonium-1-propanesulphonate (SB12) is synthesised by constant-current method on ITO glass, in aqueous medium, leading to an electrode coating. The synthesis process is followed by UV-vis spectroelectrochemistry, both in normal-beam and in parallel-beam configurations. Under the same experimental conditions PEDOT is also synthesised by electropolymerisation only in the presence of LiClO 4 supporting electrolyte, as well in solutions also containing SB12. The data relative to the electrosynthesis of the three materials are compared. The composite material based on the conductive polymer matrix including Au nanoparticles has been characterised by SEM, TEM, ICP, Raman and UV-vis spectroscopies. The behaviour of the three different electrode coatings with respect to p-doping process has been studied by conventional electrochemical techniques and by potentiostatic and potentiodynamic UV-vis spectroelectrochemical methods. Conclusions are drawn out about the effect of the presence of the surfactant and of Au nanoparticles on the electrochemical properties of the electrode system

  12. Forensic age estimation based on development of third molars: a staging technique for magnetic resonance imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, J; Phlypo, I; Fieuws, S; Politis, C; Verstraete, K L; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    The development of third molars can be evaluated with medical imaging to estimate age in subadults. The appearance of third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) differs greatly from that on radiographs. Therefore a specific staging technique is necessary to classify third molar development on MRI and to apply it for age estimation. To develop a specific staging technique to register third molar development on MRI and to evaluate its performance for age estimation in subadults. Using 3T MRI in three planes, all third molars were evaluated in 309 healthy Caucasian participants from 14 to 26 years old. According to the appearance of the developing third molars on MRI, descriptive criteria and schematic representations were established to define a specific staging technique. Two observers, with different levels of experience, staged all third molars independently with the developed technique. Intra- and inter-observer agreement were calculated. The data were imported in a Bayesian model for age estimation as described by Fieuws et al. (2016). This approach adequately handles correlation between age indicators and missing age indicators. It was used to calculate a point estimate and a prediction interval of the estimated age. Observed age minus predicted age was calculated, reflecting the error of the estimate. One-hundred and sixty-six third molars were agenetic. Five percent (51/1096) of upper third molars and 7% (70/1044) of lower third molars were not assessable. Kappa for inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.76 to 0.80. For intra-observer agreement kappa ranged from 0.80 to 0.89. However, two stage differences between observers or between staging sessions occurred in up to 2.2% (20/899) of assessments, probably due to a learning effect. Using the Bayesian model for age estimation, a mean absolute error of 2.0 years in females and 1.7 years in males was obtained. Root mean squared error equalled 2.38 years and 2.06 years respectively. The performance to

  13. Development of a Job-Exposure Matrix (AsbJEM) to Estimate Occupational Exposure to Asbestos in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oyen, Svein C; Peters, Susan; Alfonso, Helman; Fritschi, Lin; de Klerk, Nicholas H; Reid, Alison; Franklin, Peter; Gordon, Len; Benke, Geza; Musk, Arthur W

    2015-07-01

    Occupational exposure data on asbestos are limited and poorly integrated in Australia so that estimates of disease risk and attribution of disease causation are usually calculated from data that are not specific for local conditions. To develop a job-exposure matrix (AsbJEM) to estimate occupational asbestos exposure levels in Australia, making optimal use of the available exposure data. A dossier of all available exposure data in Australia and information on industry practices and controls was provided to an expert panel consisting of three local industrial hygienists with thorough knowledge of local and international work practices. The expert panel estimated asbestos exposures for combinations of occupation, industry, and time period. Intensity and frequency grades were estimated to enable the calculation of annual exposure levels for each occupation-industry combination for each time period. Two indicators of asbestos exposure intensity (mode and peak) were used to account for different patterns of exposure between occupations. Additionally, the probable type of asbestos fibre was determined for each situation. Asbestos exposures were estimated for 537 combinations of 224 occupations and 60 industries for four time periods (1943-1966; 1967-1986; 1987-2003; ≥2004). Workers in the asbestos manufacturing, shipyard, and insulation industries were estimated to have had the highest average exposures. Up until 1986, 46 occupation-industry combinations were estimated to have had exposures exceeding the current Australian exposure standard of 0.1 f ml(-1). Over 90% of exposed occupations were considered to have had exposure to a mixture of asbestos varieties including crocidolite. The AsbJEM provides empirically based quantified estimates of asbestos exposure levels for Australian jobs since 1943. This exposure assessment application will contribute to improved understanding and prediction of asbestos-related diseases and attribution of disease causation. © The

  14. Early-Life Events, Including Mode of Delivery and Type of Feeding, Siblings and Gender, Shape the Developing Gut Microbiota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Rocio; Makino, Hiroshi; Cetinyurek Yavuz, Aysun; Ben-Amor, Kaouther; Roelofs, Mieke; Ishikawa, Eiji; Kubota, Hiroyuki; Swinkels, Sophie; Sakai, Takafumi; Oishi, Kenji; Kushiro, Akira; Knol, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Colonization of the infant gut is believed to be critically important for a healthy growth as it influences gut maturation, metabolic, immune and brain development in early life. Understanding factors that influence this process is important, since an altered colonization has been associated with a higher risk of diseases later in life. Fecal samples were collected from 108 healthy neonates in the first half year of life. The composition and functionality of the microbiota was characterized by measuring 33 different bacterial taxa by qPCR/RT qPCR, and 8 bacterial metabolites. Information regarding gender, place and mode of birth, presence of siblings or pets; feeding pattern and antibiotic use was collected by using questionnaires. Regression analysis techniques were used to study associations between microbiota parameters and confounding factors over time. Bacterial DNA was detected in most meconium samples, suggesting bacterial exposure occurs in utero. After birth, colonization by species of Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus and Bacteroides was influenced by mode of delivery, type of feeding and presence of siblings, with differences found at species level and over time. Interestingly, infant-type bifidobacterial species such as B. breve or B. longum subsp infantis were confirmed as early colonizers apparently independent of the factors studied here, while B. animalis subsp. lactis presence was found to be dependent solely on the type of feeding, indicating that it might not be a common infant gut inhabitant. One interesting and rather unexpected confounding factor was gender. This study contributes to our understanding of the composition of the microbiota in early life and the succession process and the evolution of the microbial community as a function of time and events occurring during the first 6 months of life. Our results provide new insights that could be taken into consideration when selecting nutritional supplementation strategies to support the

  15. Early-Life Events, Including Mode of Delivery and Type of Feeding, Siblings and Gender, Shape the Developing Gut Microbiota.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocio Martin

    Full Text Available Colonization of the infant gut is believed to be critically important for a healthy growth as it influences gut maturation, metabolic, immune and brain development in early life. Understanding factors that influence this process is important, since an altered colonization has been associated with a higher risk of diseases later in life. Fecal samples were collected from 108 healthy neonates in the first half year of life. The composition and functionality of the microbiota was characterized by measuring 33 different bacterial taxa by qPCR/RT qPCR, and 8 bacterial metabolites. Information regarding gender, place and mode of birth, presence of siblings or pets; feeding pattern and antibiotic use was collected by using questionnaires. Regression analysis techniques were used to study associations between microbiota parameters and confounding factors over time. Bacterial DNA was detected in most meconium samples, suggesting bacterial exposure occurs in utero. After birth, colonization by species of Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus and Bacteroides was influenced by mode of delivery, type of feeding and presence of siblings, with differences found at species level and over time. Interestingly, infant-type bifidobacterial species such as B. breve or B. longum subsp infantis were confirmed as early colonizers apparently independent of the factors studied here, while B. animalis subsp. lactis presence was found to be dependent solely on the type of feeding, indicating that it might not be a common infant gut inhabitant. One interesting and rather unexpected confounding factor was gender. This study contributes to our understanding of the composition of the microbiota in early life and the succession process and the evolution of the microbial community as a function of time and events occurring during the first 6 months of life. Our results provide new insights that could be taken into consideration when selecting nutritional supplementation strategies to

  16. Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

  17. Estimating national water use associated with unconventional oil and gas development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Janet M.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.; Thamke, Joanna N.; Delzer, Gregory C.

    2016-05-18

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP) goals are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States and assist in the determination of the quantity and quality of water that is available for beneficial uses. These assessments would identify long-term trends or changes in water availability since the 1950s in the United States and help to develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast water avail- ability for future economic, energy-production, and environmental uses. The National Water Census (http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus/), a research program of the WAUSP, supports studies to develop new water accounting tools and assess water availability at the regional and national scales. Studies supported by this program target focus areas with identified water availability concerns and topical science themes related to the use of water within a specific type of environmental setting. The topical study described in this fact sheet will focus on understanding the relation between production of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) for energy and the water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development. This relation applies to the life-cycle of renewable and nonrenewable forms of UOG energy and includes extraction, production, refinement, delivery, and disposal of waste byproducts. Water-use data and models derived from this topical study will be applied to other similar oil and gas plays within the United States to help resource managers assess and account for water used or needed in these areas. Additionally, the results from this topical study will be used to further refine the methods used in compiling water-use data for selected categories (for example, mining, domestic self-supplied, public supply, and wastewater) in the USGS’s 5-year national water-use estimates reports (http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/).

  18. Development of transmission dose estimation algorithm for in vivo dosimetry in high energy radiation treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Hyong Geun; Shin, Kyo Chul; Hun, Soon Nyung; Woo, Hong Gyun; Ha, Sung Whan; Lee, Hyoung Koo

    2004-01-01

    In vivo dosimetry is very important for quality assurance purpose in high energy radiation treatment. Measurement of transmission dose is a new method of in vivo dosimetry which is noninvasive and easy for daily performance. This study is to develop a tumor dose estimation algorithm using measured transmission dose for open radiation field. For basic beam data, transmission dose was measured with various field size (FS) of square radiation field, phantom thickness (Tp), and phantom chamber distance (PCD) with a acrylic phantom for 6 MV and 10 MV X-ray. Source to chamber distance (SCD) was set to 150 cm. Measurement was conducted with a 0.6 cc Farmer type ion chamber. By using regression analysis of measured basic beam data, a transmission dose estimation algorithm was developed. Accuracy of the algorithm was tested with flat solid phantom with various thickness in various settings of rectangular fields and various PCD. In our developed algorithm, transmission dose was equated to quadratic function of log(A/P) (where A/P is area-perimeter ratio) and the coefficients of the quadratic functions were equated to tertiary functions of PCD. Our developed algorithm could estimate the radiation dose with the errors within ±0.5% for open square field, and with the errors within ±1.0% for open elongated radiation field. Developed algorithm could accurately estimate the transmission dose in open radiation fields with various treatment settings of high energy radiation treatment. (author)

  19. Informing Estimates of Program Effects for Studies of Mathematics Professional Development Using Teacher Content Knowledge Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Geoffrey; Kelcey, Benjamin; Jones, Nathan; Liu, Shuangshuang

    2016-10-03

    Mathematics professional development is widely offered, typically with the goal of improving teachers' content knowledge, the quality of teaching, and ultimately students' achievement. Recently, new assessments focused on mathematical knowledge for teaching (MKT) have been developed to assist in the evaluation and improvement of mathematics professional development. This study presents empirical estimates of average program change in MKT and its variation with the goal of supporting the design of experimental trials that are adequately powered to detect a specified program effect. The study drew on a large database representing five different assessments of MKT and collectively 326 professional development programs and 9,365 teachers. Results from cross-classified hierarchical growth models found that standardized average change estimates across the five assessments ranged from a low of 0.16 standard deviations (SDs) to a high of 0.26 SDs. Power analyses using the estimated pre- and posttest change estimates indicated that hundreds of teachers are needed to detect changes in knowledge at the lower end of the distribution. Even studies powered to detect effects at the higher end of the distribution will require substantial resources to conduct rigorous experimental trials. Empirical benchmarks that describe average program change and its variation provide a useful preliminary resource for interpreting the relative magnitude of effect sizes associated with professional development programs and for designing adequately powered trials. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-01-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age

  1. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-03-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  2. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas [Faculty of Dentistry, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai (Thailand)

    2016-03-15

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  3. Development and testing of transfer functions for generating quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Ellyn J.; van der Kaars, Sander

    2006-10-01

    We review attempts to derive quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data, including the climatic envelope, climatic indicator and modern analogue approaches, and outline the need to pursue alternatives for use as input to, or validation of, simulations by models of past, present and future climate patterns. To this end, we have constructed and tested modern pollen-climate transfer functions for mainland southeastern Australia and Tasmania using the existing southeastern Australian pollen database and for northern Australia using a new pollen database we are developing. After testing for statistical significance, 11 parameters were selected for mainland southeastern Australia, seven for Tasmania and six for northern Australia. The functions are based on weighted-averaging partial least squares regression and their predictive ability evaluated against modern observational climate data using leave-one-out cross-validation. Functions for summer, annual and winter rainfall and temperatures are most robust for southeastern Australia, while in Tasmania functions for minimum temperature of the coldest period, mean winter and mean annual temperature are the most reliable. In northern Australia, annual and summer rainfall and annual and summer moisture indexes are the strongest. The validation of all functions means all can be applied to Quaternary pollen records from these three areas with confidence. Copyright

  4. Brand market positions estimation and defining the strategic targets of its development

    OpenAIRE

    S.M. Makhnusha

    2010-01-01

    In this article the author generalizes the concept of brand characteristics which influenceits profitability and market positions. An approach to brand market positions estimation anddefining the strategic targets of its development is proposed.Keywords: brand, brand expansion, brand extension, brand value, brand power, brandrelevance, brand awareness.

  5. Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinmann, Peter; Keiser, Jennifer; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2006-07-01

    An estimated 779 million people are at risk of schistosomiasis, of whom 106 million (13.6%) live in irrigation schemes or in close proximity to large dam reservoirs. We identified 58 studies that examined the relation between water resources development projects and schistosomiasis, primarily in African settings. We present a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with the following objectives: (1) to update at-risk populations of schistosomiasis and number of people infected in endemic countries, and (2) to quantify the risk of water resources development and management on schistosomiasis. Using 35 datasets from 24 African studies, our meta-analysis showed pooled random risk ratios of 2.4 and 2.6 for urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively, among people living adjacent to dam reservoirs. The risk ratio estimate for studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on urinary schistosomiasis was in the range 0.02-7.3 (summary estimate 1.1) and that on intestinal schistosomiasis in the range 0.49-23.0 (summary estimate 4.7). Geographic stratification showed important spatial differences, idiosyncratic to the type of water resources development. We conclude that the development and management of water resources is an important risk factor for schistosomiasis, and hence strategies to mitigate negative effects should become integral parts in the planning, implementation, and operation of future water projects.

  6. Development of predictive models for estimating warfarin maintenance dose based on genetic and clinical factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lu; Linder, Mark W

    2013-01-01

    In this chapter, we use calculation of estimated warfarin maintenance dosage as an example to illustrate how to develop a multiple linear regression model to quantify the relationship between several independent variables (e.g., patients' genotype information) and a dependent variable (e.g., measureable clinical outcome).

  7. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  8. Development of estimation algorithm of loose parts and analysis of impact test data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Soo; Ham, Chang Sik; Jung, Chul Hwan; Hwang, In Koo; Kim, Tak Hwane; Kim, Tae Hwane; Park, Jin Ho

    1999-11-01

    Loose parts are produced by being parted from the structure of the reactor coolant system or by coming into RCS from the outside during test operation, refueling, and overhaul time. These loose parts are mixed with reactor coolant fluid and collide with RCS components. When loose parts are occurred within RCS, it is necessary to estimate the impact point and the mass of loose parts. In this report an analysis algorithm for the estimation of the impact point and mass of loose part is developed. The developed algorithm was tested with the impact test data of Yonggwang-3. The estimated impact point using the proposed algorithm in this report had 5 percent error to the real test data. The estimated mass was analyzed within 28 percent error bound using the same unit's data. We analyzed the characteristic frequency of each sensor because this frequency effected the estimation of impact point and mass. The characteristic frequency of the background noise during normal operation was compared with that of the impact test data. The result of the comparison illustrated that the characteristic frequency bandwidth of the impact test data was lower than that of the background noise during normal operation. by the comparison, the integrity of sensor and monitoring system could be checked, too. (author)

  9. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  10. Developing a framework for estimating the potential impact of obesity interventions in a European city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Malcolm; Bhanbhro, Sadiq; Green, Geoff; Lewis, Kevin; Hindle, Linda; Levy, Cathy

    2016-09-01

    Obesity is a global challenge for healthy populations. It has given rise to a wide range of public health interventions, focusing on supportive environments and lifestyle change, including diet, physical activity and behavioural change initiatives. Impact is variable. However, more evidence is slowly becoming available and is being used to develop new interventions. In a period of austerity, momentum is building to review these initiatives and understand what they do, how they do it and how they fit together. Our project seeks to develop a relatively straight forward systematic framework using readily accessible data to map the complex web of initiatives at a policy, population, group and individual level aiming to promote healthy lifestyles, diet and physical activity levels or to reduce obesity through medical treatments in a city or municipality population. It produces a system for classifying different types of interventions into groupings which will enable commissioners to assess the scope and distribution of interventions and make a judgement about gaps in provision and the likely impact on mean body mass index (BMI) as a proxy measure for health. Estimated impact in each level or type of intervention is based upon a summary of the scientific evidence of clinical and/or cost effectiveness. Finally it seeks, where possible, to quantify the potential effects of different types of interventions on BMI and produce a cost per unit of BMI reduced. This approach is less sophisticated but identifies the areas where more sophisticated evaluation would add value. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. A Development of Domestic Food Chain Model Data for Chronic Effect Estimation of Off-site Consequence Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Seok-Jung; KEUM, Dong-Kwon; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The FCM includes complex transport phenomena of radiation materials on a biokinetic system of contaminated environments. An estimation of chronic health effects is a key part of the level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), which depends on the FCM estimation from contaminated foods ingestion. A cultural ingestion habit of a local region and agricultural productions are different to the general features over worldwide scale or case by case. This is a reason to develop a domestic FCM data for the level 3 PSA. However, a generation of the specific FCM data is a complex process and under a large degree of uncertainty due to inherent biokinetic models. As a preliminary study, the present study focuses on an infrastructure development to generation of a specific FCM data. During this process, the features of FCM data to generate a domestic FCM data were investigated. Based on the insights obtained from this process, a specific domestic FCM data was developed. The present study was developed a domestic FCM data to estimate the chronic health effects of off-site consequence analysis. From this study, an insight was obtained, that a domestic FCM data is roughly 20 times higher than the MACCS2 defaults data. Based on this observation, it is clear that the specific chronic health effects of a domestic plant site should be considered in the off-site consequence analysis.

  12. A Development of Domestic Food Chain Model Data for Chronic Effect Estimation of Off-site Consequence Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Seok-Jung; KEUM, Dong-Kwon; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2015-01-01

    The FCM includes complex transport phenomena of radiation materials on a biokinetic system of contaminated environments. An estimation of chronic health effects is a key part of the level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), which depends on the FCM estimation from contaminated foods ingestion. A cultural ingestion habit of a local region and agricultural productions are different to the general features over worldwide scale or case by case. This is a reason to develop a domestic FCM data for the level 3 PSA. However, a generation of the specific FCM data is a complex process and under a large degree of uncertainty due to inherent biokinetic models. As a preliminary study, the present study focuses on an infrastructure development to generation of a specific FCM data. During this process, the features of FCM data to generate a domestic FCM data were investigated. Based on the insights obtained from this process, a specific domestic FCM data was developed. The present study was developed a domestic FCM data to estimate the chronic health effects of off-site consequence analysis. From this study, an insight was obtained, that a domestic FCM data is roughly 20 times higher than the MACCS2 defaults data. Based on this observation, it is clear that the specific chronic health effects of a domestic plant site should be considered in the off-site consequence analysis

  13. Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2013-01-01

    Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches

  14. Development of software for estimating clear sky solar radiation in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambarita, H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on solar energy applications in Indonesia has come under scrutiny in recent years. Solar radiation is harvested by solar collector or solar cell and convert the energy into useful energy such as heat and or electricity. In order to provide a better configuration of a solar collector or a solar cell, clear sky radiation should be estimated properly. In this study, an in-house software for estimating clear sky radiation is developed. The governing equations are solved simultaneously. The software is tested in Medan city by performing a solar radiation measurements. For clear sky radiation, the results of the software and measurements ones show a good agreement. However, for the cloudy sky condition it cannot predict the solar radiation. This software can be used to estimate the clear sky radiation in Indonesia.

  15. Estimating oxygen needs for childhood pneumonia in developing country health systems: a new model for expecting the unexpected.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beverly D Bradley

    Full Text Available Planning for the reliable and cost-effective supply of a health service commodity such as medical oxygen requires an understanding of the dynamic need or 'demand' for the commodity over time. In developing country health systems, however, collecting longitudinal clinical data for forecasting purposes is very difficult. Furthermore, approaches to estimating demand for supplies based on annual averages can underestimate demand some of the time by missing temporal variability.A discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate variable demand for a health service commodity using the important example of medical oxygen for childhood pneumonia. The model is based on five key factors affecting oxygen demand: annual pneumonia admission rate, hypoxaemia prevalence, degree of seasonality, treatment duration, and oxygen flow rate. These parameters were varied over a wide range of values to generate simulation results for different settings. Total oxygen volume, peak patient load, and hours spent above average-based demand estimates were computed for both low and high seasons.Oxygen demand estimates based on annual average values of demand factors can often severely underestimate actual demand. For scenarios with high hypoxaemia prevalence and degree of seasonality, demand can exceed average levels up to 68% of the time. Even for typical scenarios, demand may exceed three times the average level for several hours per day. Peak patient load is sensitive to hypoxaemia prevalence, whereas time spent at such peak loads is strongly influenced by degree of seasonality.A theoretical study is presented whereby a simulation approach to estimating oxygen demand is used to better capture temporal variability compared to standard average-based approaches. This approach provides better grounds for health service planning, including decision-making around technologies for oxygen delivery. Beyond oxygen, this approach is widely applicable to other areas of

  16. Development of technique for estimating primary cooling system break diameter in predicting nuclear emergency event sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatebe, Yasumasa; Yoshida, Yoshitaka

    2012-01-01

    If an emergency event occurs in a nuclear power plant, appropriate action is selected and taken in accordance with the plant status, which changes from time to time, in order to prevent escalation and mitigate the event consequences. It is thus important to predict the event sequence and identify the plant behavior resulting from the action taken. In predicting the event sequence during a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA), it is necessary to estimate break diameter. The conventional method for this estimation is time-consuming, since it involves multiple sensitivity analyses to determine the break diameter that is consistent with the plant behavior. To speed up the process of predicting the nuclear emergency event sequence, a new break diameter estimation technique that is applicable to pressurized water reactors was developed in this study. This technique enables the estimation of break diameter using the plant data sent from the safety parameter display system (SPDS), with focus on the depressurization rate in the reactor cooling system (RCS) during LOCA. The results of LOCA analysis, performed by varying the break diameter using the MAAP4 and RELAP5/MOD3.2 codes, confirmed that the RCS depressurization rate could be expressed by the log linear function of break diameter, except in the case of a small leak, in which RCS depressurization is affected by the coolant charging system and the high-pressure injection system. A correlation equation for break diameter estimation was developed from this function and tested for accuracy. Testing verified that the correlation equation could estimate break diameter accurately within an error of approximately 16%, even if the leak increases gradually, changing the plant status. (author)

  17. Infant bone age estimation based on fibular shaft length: model development and clinical validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsai, Andy; Stamoulis, Catherine; Bixby, Sarah D.; Breen, Micheal A.; Connolly, Susan A.; Kleinman, Paul K.

    2016-01-01

    Bone age in infants (<1 year old) is generally estimated using hand/wrist or knee radiographs, or by counting ossification centers. The accuracy and reproducibility of these techniques are largely unknown. To develop and validate an infant bone age estimation technique using fibular shaft length and compare it to conventional methods. We retrospectively reviewed negative skeletal surveys of 247 term-born low-risk-of-abuse infants (no persistent child protection team concerns) from July 2005 to February 2013, and randomized them into two datasets: (1) model development (n = 123) and (2) model testing (n = 124). Three pediatric radiologists measured all fibular shaft lengths. An ordinary linear regression model was fitted to dataset 1, and the model was evaluated using dataset 2. Readers also estimated infant bone ages in dataset 2 using (1) the hemiskeleton method of Sontag, (2) the hemiskeleton method of Elgenmark, (3) the hand/wrist atlas of Greulich and Pyle, and (4) the knee atlas of Pyle and Hoerr. For validation, we selected lower-extremity radiographs of 114 normal infants with no suspicion of abuse. Readers measured the fibulas and also estimated bone ages using the knee atlas. Bone age estimates from the proposed method were compared to the other methods. The proposed method outperformed all other methods in accuracy and reproducibility. Its accuracy was similar for the testing and validating datasets, with root-mean-square error of 36 days and 37 days; mean absolute error of 28 days and 31 days; and error variability of 22 days and 20 days, respectively. This study provides strong support for an infant bone age estimation technique based on fibular shaft length as a more accurate alternative to conventional methods. (orig.)

  18. Infant bone age estimation based on fibular shaft length: model development and clinical validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsai, Andy; Stamoulis, Catherine; Bixby, Sarah D.; Breen, Micheal A.; Connolly, Susan A.; Kleinman, Paul K. [Boston Children' s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Bone age in infants (<1 year old) is generally estimated using hand/wrist or knee radiographs, or by counting ossification centers. The accuracy and reproducibility of these techniques are largely unknown. To develop and validate an infant bone age estimation technique using fibular shaft length and compare it to conventional methods. We retrospectively reviewed negative skeletal surveys of 247 term-born low-risk-of-abuse infants (no persistent child protection team concerns) from July 2005 to February 2013, and randomized them into two datasets: (1) model development (n = 123) and (2) model testing (n = 124). Three pediatric radiologists measured all fibular shaft lengths. An ordinary linear regression model was fitted to dataset 1, and the model was evaluated using dataset 2. Readers also estimated infant bone ages in dataset 2 using (1) the hemiskeleton method of Sontag, (2) the hemiskeleton method of Elgenmark, (3) the hand/wrist atlas of Greulich and Pyle, and (4) the knee atlas of Pyle and Hoerr. For validation, we selected lower-extremity radiographs of 114 normal infants with no suspicion of abuse. Readers measured the fibulas and also estimated bone ages using the knee atlas. Bone age estimates from the proposed method were compared to the other methods. The proposed method outperformed all other methods in accuracy and reproducibility. Its accuracy was similar for the testing and validating datasets, with root-mean-square error of 36 days and 37 days; mean absolute error of 28 days and 31 days; and error variability of 22 days and 20 days, respectively. This study provides strong support for an infant bone age estimation technique based on fibular shaft length as a more accurate alternative to conventional methods. (orig.)

  19. Development of a new method for estimating visceral fat area with multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Masato; Komiya, Hideaki; Mori, Yutaka; Ohta, Teruo; Kasahara, Yasuhiro; Ikeda, Yoshio

    2008-01-01

    Excessive visceral fat area (VFA) is a major risk factor in such conditions as cardiovascular disease. In assessing VFA, computed tomography (CT) is adopted as the gold standard; however, this method is cost intensive and involves radiation exposure. In contrast, the bioelectrical impedance (BI) method for estimating body composition is simple and noninvasive and thus its potential application in VFA assessment is being studied. To overcome the difference in obtained impedance due to measurement conditions, we developed a more precise estimation method by selecting the optimum body posture, electrode arrangement, and frequency. The subjects were 73 healthy volunteers, 37 men and 36 women, who underwent CT scans to assess VFA and who were measured for anthropometry parameters, subcutaneous fat layer thickness, abdominal tissue area, and impedance. Impedance was measured by the tetrapolar impedance method using multi-frequency BI. Multiple regression analysis was conducted to estimate VFA. The results revealed a strong correlation between VFA observed by CT and VFA estimated by impedance (r=0.920). The regression equation accurately classified VFA≥100 cm 2 in 13 out of 14 men and 1 of 1 woman. Moreover, it classified VFA≥100 cm 2 or 2 in 3 out of 4 men and 1 of 1 woman misclassified by waist circumference (W) which was adopted as a simple index to evaluate VFA. Therefore, using this simple and convenient method for estimating VFA, we obtained an accurate assessment of VFA using the BI method. (author)

  20. The Development of Multi-Agent System of State Estimation of Electric Power Systems Using Event Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Massel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The work objective is to offer a methodological approach to the development of multiagent systems (MAS in the energy sector. The agent approach is declared as an integral part of the Smart Grid concept (intelligent energy systems, but so far there is really neither methodological development and nor implementation in this area. The problem to estimate the states of electric power systems (EPS is one of the most important in the energy sector. Decentralization of calculations, when estimating the EPS states, allows reducing the host control center load and the amount of data transferred through the network.To achieve this aim were used the theory and methods for estimating the EPS state, artificial intelligence techniques, methods of object design and programming, multi-agent technologies, and algebraic Joiner-net network.The work analyses existing agent-based solutions, reveals their weaknesses, and proposes author's approach to MAS development in the energy sector, which includes 5 steps: 1 description of the future system, 2 construction and description of the agent-based scenarios, 3 MAS architecture development 4 MAS engineering design 5 MAS implementation.A novelty of the proposed approach lies in introduction of the agent interaction scenarios and application of Joiner-networks for scripting of scenarios. Agent-based scenarios allow nonprogrammers-experts to change the programme algorithm. A Joiner-network of the scenario consists of the functioning processes of agents (nodes, and the events that trigger or end the process. Output event of one process can be the input event for another.The operation algorithm of the EPS estimation system is developed. The first step is to provide decomposition of a nodalization diagram into the areas corresponding to the levels of node voltages. Then diagrams resulting from decomposition are distributed between the agents of EPS estimation and calculated in parallel. At the next stage, all diagrams are

  1. Development of Methodologies for the Estimation of Thermal Properties Associated with Aerospace Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Elaine P.

    1996-01-01

    A thermal stress analysis is an important aspect in the design of aerospace structures and vehicles such as the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center (NASA-LaRC). These structures are complex and are often composed of numerous components fabricated from a variety of different materials. The thermal loads on these structures induce temperature variations within the structure, which in turn result in the development of thermal stresses. Therefore, a thermal stress analysis requires knowledge of the temperature distributions within the structures which consequently necessitates the need for accurate knowledge of the thermal properties, boundary conditions and thermal interface conditions associated with the structural materials. The goal of this proposed multi-year research effort was to develop estimation methodologies for the determination of the thermal properties and interface conditions associated with aerospace vehicles. Specific objectives focused on the development and implementation of optimal experimental design strategies and methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties associated with simple composite and honeycomb structures. The strategy used in this multi-year research effort was to first develop methodologies for relatively simple systems and then systematically modify these methodologies to analyze complex structures. This can be thought of as a building block approach. This strategy was intended to promote maximum usability of the resulting estimation procedure by NASA-LARC researchers through the design of in-house experimentation procedures and through the use of an existing general purpose finite element software.

  2. Development of mathematical model for estimation of entrance surface dose in mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelgani, Yassir Mohammed Tahir

    2013-05-01

    Computer simulation is a convenient and frequently used tool in the study of x-ray mammography, for the design of novel detector systems, the evaluation of dose deposition, x-ray technique optimization, and other applications. An important component in the simulation process is the accurate computer generation of x-ray spectra. A computer model for the generation of x-ray spectra in the mammographic energy rang from 18 keV to 40 ke V has been developed by Boone et al. Due to the lack of QC and dose measurement tools, in addition to unavailability of medical physics, a mathematical tool was developed for estimation of patient exposure and entrance dose. The proposed model require no assumptions concerning the physics of x-ray production in an x-ray tube, but rather makes use of x-ray spectra recently measured experimentally by John M Boone (Department of Radiology, University of California). Using experimental dose measurements for specific tube voltage and tube current the generated x-ray spectra were calibrated. The spectrum calibration factors show a tube voltage dependency. From the calibrated x-ray spectrum, the exposure and entrance dose were estimated for different k Vp and m A. Results show good agreement between the measured and estimated values for tube voltage between 18 to 45 k Vp with a good correlation of nearly 1 and equal slope. The maximum estimated different between the measured and the simulated dose is approximately equal to 0.07%.(Author)

  3. Development of the Korean Adult Reading Test (KART to estimate premorbid intelligence in dementia patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahyun Yi

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop a word-reading test for Korean-speaking adults using irregularly pronounced words that would be useful for estimation of premorbid intelligence. A linguist who specialized in Korean phonology selected 94 words that have irregular relationship between orthography and phonology. Sixty cognitively normal elderly (CN and 31 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD were asked to read out loud the words and were administered the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, 4th edition, Korean version (K-WAIS-IV. Among the 94 words, 50 words that did not show a significant difference between the CN and the AD group were selected and constituted the KART. Using the 30 CN calculation group (CNc, a linear regression equation was obtained in which the observed full-scale IQ (FSIQ was regressed on the reading errors of the KART, where education was included as an additional variable. When the regressed equation computed from the CNc was applied to 30 CN individuals of the validation group (CNv, the predicted FSIQ adequately fit the observed FSIQ (R2 = 0.63. In addition, independent sample t-test showed that the KART-predicted IQs were not significantly different between the CNv and AD groups, whereas the performance of the AD group was significantly worse in the observed IQs. In addition, an extended validation of the KART was performed with a separate sample consisted of 84 CN, 56 elderly with mild cognitive impairment (MCI, and 43 AD patients who were administered comprehensive neuropsychological assessments in addition to the KART. When the equation obtained from the CNc was applied to the extended validation sample, the KART-predicted IQs of the AD, MCI and the CN groups did not significantly differ, whereas their current global cognition scores significantly differed between the groups. In conclusion, the results support the validity of KART-predicted IQ as an index of premorbid IQ in individuals with AD.

  4. Multiple Imputation for Estimating the Risk of Developing Dementia and Its Impact on Survival

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S.; Launer, Lenore J.

    2010-01-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer’s disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. I...

  5. Estimation of interface resistivity in bonded Si for the development of high performance radiation detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanno, Ikuo; Yamashita, Makoto; Nomiya, Seiichiro; Onabe, Hideaki

    2007-01-01

    For the development of high performance radiation detectors, direct bonding of Si wafers would be an useful method. Previously, p-n bonded Si were fabricated and they showed diode characteristics. The interface resistivity was, however, not investigated in detail. For the study of interface resistivity, n-type Si wafers with different resistivities were bonded. The resistivity of bonded Si wafers were measured and the interface resistivity was estimated by comparing with the results of model calculations. (author)

  6. Development and application of best-estimate LWR safety analysis codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reocreux, M.

    1997-01-01

    This paper is a review of the status and the future orientations of the development and application of best estimate LWR safety analysis codes. The present status of these codes exhibits a large success and almost a complete fulfillment of the objectives which were assigned in the 70s. The applications of Best Estimate codes are numerous and cover a large variety of safety questions. However these applications raised a number of problems. The first ones concern the need to have a better control of the quality of the results. This means requirements on code assessment and on uncertainties evaluation. The second ones concern needs for code development and specifically regarding physical models, numerics, coupling with other codes and programming. The analysis of the orientations for code developments and applications in the next years, shows that some developments should be made without delay in order to solve today questions whereas some others are more long term and should be tested for example in some pilot programmes before being eventually applied in main code development. Each of these development programmes are analyzed in the paper by detailing their main content and their possible interest. (author)

  7. Estimation development cost, study case: Quality Management System Reactor TRIGA Mark III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antúnez Barbosa, Tereso Antonio; Valdovinos Rosas, Rosa María; Marcial Romero, José Raymundo; Ramos Corchado, Marco Antonio; Edgar Herrera Arriaga

    2016-01-01

    The process of estimating costs in software engineering is not a simple task, it must be addressed carefully to obtain an efficient strategy to solve problems associated with the effort, cost and time of activities that are performed in the development of an information system project. In this context the main goal for both developers and customers is the cost, since developers are worry about the effort pay-load and customers are worry about the product pay-load. However, in other fields the cost of goods depends on the activity or process that is performed, thereby deduce that the main cost of the final product of a development project software project is undoubtedly its size. In this paper a comparative study of common models for estimating costs are developed. These models are used today in order to create a structured analysis to provide the necessary information about cost, time and effort for making decisions in a software development project. Finally the models are applied to a case study, which is a system called Monitorizacion Automatica del Sistema de Gestion de Calidad del Reactor TRIGA Mark III. (author)

  8. Development of a Disaggregation Framework toward the Estimation of Subdaily Reference Evapotranspiration: 2- Estimation of Subdaily Reference Evapotranspiration Using Disaggregated Weather Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Parchami Araghi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Subdaily estimates of reference evapotranspiration (ET o are needed in many applications such as dynamic agro-hydrological modeling. However, in many regions, the lack of subdaily weather data availability has hampered the efforts to quantify the subdaily ET o. In the first presented paper, a physically based framework was developed to desegregate daily weather data needed for estimation of subdaily reference ET o, including air temperature, wind speed, dew point, actual vapour pressure, relative humidity, and solar radiation. The main purpose of this study was to estimate the subdaily ETo using disaggregated daily data derived from developed disaggregation framework in the first presented paper. Materials and Methods: Subdaily ET o estimates were made, using ASCE and FAO-56 Penman–Monteith models (ASCE-PM and FAO56-PM, respectively and subdaily weather data derived from the developed daily-to-subdaily weather data disaggregation framework. To this end, long-term daily weather data got from Abadan (59 years and Ahvaz (50 years synoptic weather stations were collected. Sensitivity analysis of Penman–Monteith model to the different meteorological variables (including, daily air temperature, wind speed at 2 m height, actual vapor pressure, and solar radiation was carried out, using partial derivatives of Penman–Monteith equation. The capability of the two models for retrieving the daily ETo was evaluated, using root mean square error RMSE (mm, the mean error ME (mm, the mean absolute error ME (mm, Pearson correlation coefficient r (-, and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient EF (-. Different contributions to the overall error were decomposed using a regression-based method. Results and Discussion: The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the daily air temperature and the actual vapor pressure are the most significant meteorological variables, which affect the ETo estimates. In contrast, low sensitivity

  9. Estimating WACC for Regulated Industries on Developing Financial Markets and in Times of Market Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Stubelj

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the estimation of weighted average cost of capital (WACC for regulated industries in developing financial markets from the perspective of the current financial-economic crisis. In current financial market situation some evident changes have occurred: risk-free rates in solid and developed financial markets (e. g. USA, Germany have fallen, but due to increased market volatility, the risk premiums have increased. The latter is especially evident in transition economies where the amplitude of market volatility is extremely high. In such circumstances, there is a question of how to calculate WACC properly. WACC is an important measure in financial management decisions and in our case, business regulation. We argue in the paper that the most accurate method for calculating WACC is the estimation of the long-term WACC, which takes into consideration a long-term stable yield of capital and not the current market conditions. Following this, we propose some solutions that could be used for calculating WACC for regulated industries on the developing financial markets in times of market uncertainty. As an example, we present an estimation of the capital cost for a selected Slovenian company, which operates in the regulated industry of electric distribution.

  10. Intrapuparial Development of Sarconesia Chlorogaster (Diptera: Calliphoridae) for Postmortem Interval Estimation (PMI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flissak, J C; Moura, M O

    2018-02-28

    Sarconesia chlorogaster (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) is an endemic blow fly species of forensic importance in South America, and whose duration of pupal development is about 70% of the total immature development time. Therefore, morphological changes during this stage, if refined, may provide greater accuracy and reliability in the calculation of minimum postmortem interval. Considering the importance of this species, the main objective of this work was to identify and describe temporal intrapuparial morphological changes of S. chlorogaster. The development of S. chlorogaster reared on an artificial diet and at two constant temperatures (20 and 25ºC) was monitored. Every 8 h until the end of the pupal stage, 10 pupae were killed, fixed, and had their external morphology described and photographed. Of the 29 morphological characteristics described, 13 are potentially informative for estimating the age of S. chlorogaster. In general, body shape (presence or absence of tagmatization), general coloration, visible presence of the mouth hook (portion of the mandible), thoracic appendages, change in eye color, and bristle formation are the most useful characteristics for determining specific age. The results presented here make it possible to estimate the postmortem interval of a corpse using intrapuparial morphological characters, expanding one's ability to estimate postmortem interval.

  11. Developing a module for estimating climate warming effects on hydropower pricing in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.; Madani, Kaveh

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to alter hydropower generation in California through affecting the annual stream-flow regimes and reducing snowpack. On the other hand, increased temperatures are expected to increase hydropower demand for cooling in warm periods while decreasing demand for heating in winter, subsequently altering the annual hydropower pricing patterns. The resulting variations in hydropower supply and pricing regimes necessitate changes in reservoir operations to minimize the revenue losses from climate warming. Previous studies in California have only explored the effects of hydrological changes on hydropower generation and revenues. This study builds a long-term hydropower pricing estimation tool, based on artificial neural network (ANN), to develop pricing scenarios under different climate warming scenarios. Results suggest higher average hydropower prices under climate warming scenarios than under historical climate. The developed tool is integrated with California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) to facilitate simultaneous consideration of climate warming on hydropower supply, demand and pricing. EBHOM estimates an additional 5% drop in annual revenues under a dry warming scenario when climate change impacts on pricing are considered, with respect to when such effects are ignored, underlining the importance of considering changes in hydropower demand and pricing in future studies and policy making. - Highlights: ► Addressing the major gap in previous climate change and hydropower studies in California. ► Developing an ANN-based long-term hydropower price estimation tool. ► Estimating climate change effects on hydropower demand and pricing in California. ► Investigating the sensitivity of hydropower operations to future price changes. ► Underlining the importance of consideration of climate change impacts on electricity pricing.

  12. Magnetic resonance imaging of third molars: developing a protocol suitable for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, Jannick; Hillewig, Elke; Bogaert, Stephanie; Deblaere, Karel; Verstraete, Koenraad

    2017-03-01

    Established dental age estimation methods in sub-adults study the development of third molar root apices on radiographs. In living individuals, however, avoiding ionising radiation is expedient. Studying dental development with magnetic resonance imaging complies with this requirement, adding the advantage of imaging in three dimensions. To elaborate the development of an MRI protocol to visualise all third molars for forensic age estimation, with particular attention to the development of the root apex. Ex vivo scans of porcine jaws and in vivo scans of 10 volunteers aged 17-25 years were performed to select adequate sequences. Studied parameters were T1 vs T2 weighting, ultrashort echo time (UTE), fat suppression, in plane resolution, slice thickness, 3D imaging, signal-to-noise ratio, and acquisition time. A bilateral four-channel flexible surface coil was used. Two observers evaluated the suitability of the images. T2-weighted images were preferred to T1-weighted images. To clearly distinguish root apices in (almost) fully developed third molars an in plane resolution of 0.33 × 0.33 mm 2 was deemed necessary. Taking acquisition time limits into account, only a T2 FSE sequence with slice thickness of 2 mm generated images with sufficient resolution and contrast. UTE, thinner slice T2 FSE and T2 3D FSE sequences could not generate the desired resolution within 6.5 minutes. Three Tesla MRI of the third molars is a feasible technique for forensic age estimation, in which a T2 FSE sequence can provide the desired in plane resolution within a clinically acceptable acquisition time.

  13. Developing first time-series of land surface temperature from AATSR with uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John

    2013-04-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Earth Observation satellites provide the opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST approximately every 3 days or less. One such source of satellite retrieved LST has been the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR); with LST retrieval being implemented in the AATSR Instrument Processing Facility in March 2004. Here we present first regional and global time-series of LST data from AATSR with estimates of uncertainty. Mean changes in temperature over the last decade will be discussed along with regional patterns. Although time-series across all three ATSR missions have previously been constructed (Kogler et al., 2012), the use of low resolution auxiliary data in the retrieval algorithm and non-optimal cloud masking resulted in time-series artefacts. As such, considerable ESA supported development has been carried out on the AATSR data to address these concerns. This includes the integration of high resolution auxiliary data into the retrieval algorithm and subsequent generation of coefficients and tuning parameters, plus the development of an improved cloud mask based on the simulation of clear sky conditions from radiance transfer modelling (Ghent et al., in prep.). Any inference on this LST record is though of limited value without the accompaniment of an uncertainty estimate; wherein the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology quote an uncertainty as "a parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand that is the value of the particular quantity to be measured". Furthermore, pixel level uncertainty fields are a mandatory requirement in the on-going preparation of the LST product for the upcoming Sea and Land Surface Temperature (SLSTR) instrument on-board Sentinel-3

  14. A three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model with data assimilation: Model development, sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Daosheng; Cao, Anzhou; Zhang, Jicai; Fan, Daidu; Liu, Yongzhi; Zhang, Yue

    2018-06-01

    Based on the theory of inverse problems, a three-dimensional sigma-coordinate cohesive sediment transport model with the adjoint data assimilation is developed. In this model, the physical processes of cohesive sediment transport, including deposition, erosion and advection-diffusion, are parameterized by corresponding model parameters. These parameters are usually poorly known and have traditionally been assigned empirically. By assimilating observations into the model, the model parameters can be estimated using the adjoint method; meanwhile, the data misfit between model results and observations can be decreased. The model developed in this work contains numerous parameters; therefore, it is necessary to investigate the parameter sensitivity of the model, which is assessed by calculating a relative sensitivity function and the gradient of the cost function with respect to each parameter. The results of parameter sensitivity analysis indicate that the model is sensitive to the initial conditions, inflow open boundary conditions, suspended sediment settling velocity and resuspension rate, while the model is insensitive to horizontal and vertical diffusivity coefficients. A detailed explanation of the pattern of sensitivity analysis is also given. In ideal twin experiments, constant parameters are estimated by assimilating 'pseudo' observations. The results show that the sensitive parameters are estimated more easily than the insensitive parameters. The conclusions of this work can provide guidance for the practical applications of this model to simulate sediment transport in the study area.

  15. Development of software and modification of Q-FISH protocol for estimation of individual telomere length in immunopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkovskaya, M Sh; Bogomolov, A G; Knauer, N Yu; Rubtsov, N B; Kozlov, V A

    2017-04-01

    Telomere length is an important indicator of proliferative cell history and potential. Decreasing telomere length in the cells of an immune system can indicate immune aging in immune-mediated and chronic inflammatory diseases. Quantitative fluorescent in situ hybridization (Q-FISH) of a labeled (C 3 TA[Formula: see text] peptide nucleic acid probe onto fixed metaphase cells followed by digital image microscopy allows the evaluation of telomere length in the arms of individual chromosomes. Computer-assisted analysis of microscopic images can provide quantitative information on the number of telomeric repeats in individual telomeres. We developed new software to estimate telomere length. The MeTeLen software contains new options that can be used to solve some Q-FISH and microscopy problems, including correction of irregular light effects and elimination of background fluorescence. The identification and description of chromosomes and chromosome regions are essential to the Q-FISH technique. To improve the quality of cytogenetic analysis after Q-FISH, we optimized the temperature and time of DNA-denaturation to get better DAPI-banding of metaphase chromosomes. MeTeLen was tested by comparing telomere length estimations for sister chromatids, background fluorescence estimations, and correction of nonuniform light effects. The application of the developed software for analysis of telomere length in patients with rheumatoid arthritis was demonstrated.

  16. Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

    2010-10-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

  17. Development of an Advanced Grid-Connected PV-ECS System Considering Solar Energy Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md. Habibur; Yamashiro, Susumu; Nakamura, Koichi

    In this paper, the development and the performance of a viable distributed grid-connected power generation system of Photovoltaic-Energy Capacitor System (PV-ECS) considering solar energy estimation have been described. Instead of conventional battery Electric Double Layer Capacitors (EDLC) are used as storage device and Photovoltaic (PV) panel to generate power from solar energy. The system can generate power by PV, store energy when the demand of load is low and finally supply the stored energy to load during the period of peak demand. To realize the load leveling function properly the system will also buy power from grid line when load demand is high. Since, the power taken from grid line depends on the PV output power, a procedure has been suggested to estimate the PV output power by calculating solar radiation. In order to set the optimum value of the buy power, a simulation program has also been developed. Performance of the system has been studied for different load patterns in different weather conditions by using the estimated PV output power with the help of the simulation program.

  18. Reaching a consensus. "Global issues, including environmental ones, are things to be solved with the cooperation of developed and developing countries".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiraiwa, G

    1998-01-01

    This article is an excerpt of a speech given by the Honorary Chairman of the Japan Federation of Economic Organizations at the Common Agenda Roundtable meeting in February 1996. The Common Agenda is a bilateral cooperative effort between the US and Japan, which was established in July 1993, to address common concerns through a public-private partnership. The roundtable membership includes about 50 persons who have a range of expertise and professions including scholars, journalists, civil society organizations, and businesses. There have been about 10 Roundtable meetings over the past 2 years. Each meeting includes a report by the deputy minister of foreign affairs on progress made under the Common Agenda. Members exchange views in lively debate and meet with senior government officials. The US-Japan Partnerships on Environmental Awareness and Education were held in April 1997, in Tokyo. The February 1998 meeting with 60 participants was held in Washington, DC, on the Global Context of Civil Society. The workshops focused on the ways that cooperation with civil society organizations, businesses, and governments can be reinforced in the areas of population, health, and the environment. The workshop resulted in effective proposals. This speaker urges that the US and Japan reach as many agreements as possible; that some of the agreements result quickly in Common Agenda projects; and that each country will produce a private sector organization to support the Common Agenda. This effort is moving in new directions and offers a consensus of concerns for the environment.

  19. Developing a Ballistic Software Kit to Estimate Vehicle Characteristics at the Draft Design Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Maiorova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a ballistic software kit to calculate a moving vehicle trajectory in atmosphere and space. Such software gives an opportunity to accelerate the acquisition of flying vehicle’s ballistic parameters at the stage of draft design. It contributes to improving collaboration efficiency between adjacent departments involved in the project. The developed software kit includes three different programs: Trajectory-LAND© (motion in atmosphere with possible correction of a trajectory, Trajectory-SPACE© (motion in the non-central gravity field with possible simulation of maneuvers, Trajectory-LAUNCH© (launch-vehicle’s insertion into the orbit with possible defining the impact points of separated stages. Each of the software concedes the addition of computational modules to use the solution results of the basic task. Implemented mathematical models permit to take into account the influence of main perturbations on the flying vehicle during the flight. For illustration purposes, the article gives some examples of using each of the programs and their block-diagrams.The developed software implements some algorithms, which allow attaining the convergence of numerical simulation of differential equations of motion. This problem arises, for example, while determining an attitude in case the stages have already separated from the launch vehicle. The mathematical conversion from Rodriguez-Hamilton parameters into Euler’s angles disables us to obtain reliable values of attitude angles due to the limitations for existing area of inverse trigonometric functions being used. Incorrect values of pitch lead to raw and roll channels divergences. Moreover, the mistakes in attitude determination lead to mistakes in obtained values of attack angle, which is included into the forms for aerodynamic forces and torques. As a result, the solution of system of differential equations is a failure when a flying vehicle enters the height of 30-35 km. The

  20. Development of radioactive 166Ho-coated balloon and its dose estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, K. B.; Kim, K. H.; Hong, Y. D.; Park, E. W.

    2000-01-01

    The use of balloon with radioisotope is a promising method to prevent restenosis after transluminal coronary arterial angioplasty or stent implantation. In this study, we have developed a new radioactive coated balloon, which is prepared by coating the surface of existing balloon with 166 Ho instead of being filled with beta sources which emit high energy beta-particles for the purpose of the delivery of sufficient radiation to the vessel wall. To estimate the safety of 166 Ho-coated balloon, leaching test and radiation resistance test of the balloon were performed. The absorbed dose distributions around the 166 Ho-coated balloon were estimated by means of Monte Carlo simulation and the initial activities for optimal therapeutic regimen were determined on the basis of this results

  1. Estimation of physical development of young sportsmen from traditional and modern positions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khor'yakov V.A.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of evaluation of anthropometric status of young sportsmen is examined with the use of method of indexes and modern pictures of somatic health of man. In research young boxers took part 10-11 (n=41, 12-13 (n=48 and 14-16 years (n=39. Contradiction and ambiguousness of estimations of physical development of children and teenagers is rotined by means of traditional indexes of Erismana, Quetelet, Pin'e, sthenic and development of thorax. It is marked that an estimation of physical development of children and teenagers with the use of standard deviation of selection is not productive, because in most cases distributing of the studied signs falls short of a normal law. A concept «norm» is recommended to replace a concept «norm» as an obligatory requirement of the state to the level of somatic health of children and teenagers of different regions of country. It is marked that it is expedient to examine physical development of individuals as a structural element of bodily condition the major components of which are indexes of power and capacity of mechanisms of energy supply.

  2. ANALYSIS OF EFFICIENCY OF R&D ACTIVITIES AMONG COUNTRIES WITH DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES INCLUDING REPUBLIC OF BELARUS WITH STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Zhukovski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates efficiency of R&D activities based on the stochastic frontier analysis across 69 counties with developed and developing economies. Gross domestic expenditures on R&D in purchasing power parity, researchers per million inhabitants, technicians per million inhabitants are treated as inputs while patents granted to residents and scientific and technical journal articles are considered as outputs. According to the analysis results Costa Rica, Israel and Singapore are the most efficient in terms of transformation of available resources into the R&D results. What concerns Belarus it is necessary that additional investments in R&D go together with increasing efficiency of available resources’ usage. 

  3. Cesic: optomechanical technology last development results and new HBCesic highly light weighted space mirror development including corrective function 7th international conference on space optics, october 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devilliers, Christophe; Kroedel, Mathias

    2017-11-01

    Thales-Alenia-Space and ECM has developed a new SiC ceramic composite to produce very lightweight space mirrors and structure. Cesicmade by ECM has been selected for its own intrinsic properties ( high specific Young modulus, high conductivity , low CTE, high strength for a ceramics) and its large manufacturing capabilities. Recently a full monolithic space instrument for earth observation, with a monolithic Cesicstructure and with Cesicmirrors has been designed, manufactured and space qualified and is now ready for launch. The Cesictelescope assembly has been tested under shock environment, vibration loads, and full qualification thermal environment. All these qualification tests were done directly on the flight model. Extensive development has been also performed to design, size, manufacture and test a very light weight reflector shell made as a single part. This 1 meter reflective shell has an areal density of less than 10 Kg/m2 has been manufactured with its surface grounded to the bi parabolic shape. Such challenging areal density has requested a very thin skin associated with a ribs thickness of less than 2mm. In order to demonstrate the high stability and strength of Cesicthe reflector has been tested successfully under very aggressive environment up to 350°C and also an acoustic test with flight representative levels was successfully performed. To produce future very lightweight space mirrors ECM develop with the support of Thales-Alenia-Space since some years an improved version of Cesicceramic, called HB-Cesic©. HB-Cesicmade by ECM is developed for its higher intrinsic properties, Young modulus, strength and especially its direct polishing capabilities down to 3 nm micro-roughness. One of the major targets for this development was also to overcome size limitations of the C/C raw material of currently around 1x1 m to produce mirror up to 3,5 m diameter out of a single C/C raw material block. Under ESA study a 600 mm mirror with a surface density of only

  4. Development and validation of GFR-estimating equations using diabetes, transplant and weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stevens, L.A.; Schmid, C.H.; Zhang, Y.L.

    2009-01-01

    interactions. Equations were developed in a pooled database of 10 studies [2/3 (N = 5504) for development and 1/3 (N = 2750) for internal validation], and final model selection occurred in 16 additional studies [external validation (N = 3896)]. RESULTS: The mean mGFR was 68, 67 and 68 ml/min/ 1.73 m(2......BACKGROUND: We have reported a new equation (CKD-EPI equation) that reduces bias and improves accuracy for GFR estimation compared to the MDRD study equation while using the same four basic predictor variables: creatinine, age, sex and race. Here, we describe the development and validation...... of this equation as well as other equations that incorporate diabetes, transplant and weight as additional predictor variables. METHODS: Linear regression was used to relate log-measured GFR (mGFR) to sex, race, diabetes, transplant, weight, various transformations of creatinine and age with and without...

  5. Development, Validation, and Verification of a Self-Assessment Tool to Estimate Agnibala (Digestive Strength).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Aparna; Singh, Girish; Patwardhan, Kishor; Gehlot, Sangeeta

    2017-01-01

    According to Ayurveda, the traditional system of healthcare of Indian origin, Agni is the factor responsible for digestion and metabolism. Four functional states (Agnibala) of Agni have been recognized: regular, irregular, intense, and weak. The objective of the present study was to develop and validate a self-assessment tool to estimate Agnibala The developed tool was evaluated for its reliability and validity by administering it to 300 healthy volunteers of either gender belonging to 18 to 40-year age group. Besides confirming the statistical validity and reliability, the practical utility of the newly developed tool was also evaluated by recording serum lipid parameters of all the volunteers. The results show that the lipid parameters vary significantly according to the status of Agni The tool, therefore, may be used to screen normal population to look for possible susceptibility to certain health conditions. © The Author(s) 2016.

  6. Density functionals for surface science: Exchange-correlation model development with Bayesian error estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wellendorff, Jess; Lundgård, Keld Troen; Møgelhøj, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    A methodology for semiempirical density functional optimization, using regularization and cross-validation methods from machine learning, is developed. We demonstrate that such methods enable well-behaved exchange-correlation approximations in very flexible model spaces, thus avoiding the overfit......A methodology for semiempirical density functional optimization, using regularization and cross-validation methods from machine learning, is developed. We demonstrate that such methods enable well-behaved exchange-correlation approximations in very flexible model spaces, thus avoiding...... the energetics of intramolecular and intermolecular, bulk solid, and surface chemical bonding, and the developed optimization method explicitly handles making the compromise based on the directions in model space favored by different materials properties. The approach is applied to designing the Bayesian error...... sets validates the applicability of BEEF-vdW to studies in chemistry and condensed matter physics. Applications of the approximation and its Bayesian ensemble error estimate to two intricate surface science problems support this....

  7. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  8. Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thaduri, Ravi Kiran

    In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.

  9. Estimation and Control in Agile Methods for Software Development: a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitre-Hernández Hugo A.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The development of software (SW using agile methods is growing due to the productivity associated with these methodologies, in addition to the flexibility shown in small teams. However, these methods have clear weaknesses of software development in cost estimation and management, as well as the fact that project managers do not have enough evidence to verify the budget spending on a project due to the poor documentation generated and the lack of monitoring of resource spending. A proposal estimation and cost control in agile methods to solve these shortcomings. To this end, a case study was conducted in an agile software development company using the proposal for Software as a Service (SaaS and Web application projects. The results found were that the proposal generates a high degree of evidence for project managers, but it has shortcomings in the administration of the evidence for the control and decision making, which led to a definition of a decision making process to be coupled with the measurement proposal.

  10. Development of iodimetric redox method for routine estimation of ascorbic acid from fresh fruit and vegetables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munir, M.; Baloch, A. K.; Khan, W. A.; Ahmad, F.; Jamil, M.

    2013-01-01

    The iodimetric method (Im) is developed for rapid estimation of ascorbic acid from fresh fruit and vegetables. The efficiency of Im was compared with standard with standard dye method (Dm) utilizing a variety of model solutions and aqueous extracts from fresh fruit and vegetables of different colors. The Im presented consistently accurate and precise results from colorless to colored model solutions and from fruit/vegetable extracts with standard deviation (Stdev) in the range of +-0.013 - +-0.405 and +-0.019 - +-0.428 respectively with no significant difference between the replicates. The Dm worked also satisfactorily for colorless model solutions and extracts (Stdev range +-0.235 - +-0.309) while producing unsatisfactory results (+-0.464 - +-3.281) for colored counterparts. Severe discrepancies/ overestimates continued to pileup (52% to 197%) estimating the nutrient from high (3.0 mg/10mL) to low (0.5 mg/10mL) concentration levels, respectively. On the basis of precision and reliability, the Im technique is suggested for adoption in general laboratories for routine estimation of ascorbic acid from fruit and vegetables possessing any shade. (author)

  11. Development of GP and GEP models to estimate an environmental issue induced by blasting operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faradonbeh, Roohollah Shirani; Hasanipanah, Mahdi; Amnieh, Hassan Bakhshandeh; Armaghani, Danial Jahed; Monjezi, Masoud

    2018-05-21

    Air overpressure (AOp) is one of the most adverse effects induced by blasting in the surface mines and civil projects. So, proper evaluation and estimation of the AOp is important for minimizing the environmental problems resulting from blasting. The main aim of this study is to estimate AOp produced by blasting operation in Miduk copper mine, Iran, developing two artificial intelligence models, i.e., genetic programming (GP) and gene expression programming (GEP). Then, the accuracy of the GP and GEP models has been compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) and three empirical models. For this purpose, 92 blasting events were investigated, and subsequently, the AOp values were carefully measured. Moreover, in each operation, the values of maximum charge per delay and distance from blast points, as two effective parameters on the AOp, were measured. After predicting by the predictive models, their performance prediction was checked in terms of variance account for (VAF), coefficient of determination (CoD), and root mean square error (RMSE). Finally, it was found that the GEP with VAF of 94.12%, CoD of 0.941, and RMSE of 0.06 is a more precise model than other predictive models for the AOp prediction in the Miduk copper mine, and it can be introduced as a new powerful tool for estimating the AOp resulting from blasting.

  12. Methodology development for estimating support behavior of spacer grid spring in core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Kyung Ho; Kang, Heung Seok; Kim, Hyung Kyu; Song, Kee Nam

    1998-04-01

    The fuel rod (FR) support behavior is changed during operation resulting from effects such as clad creep-down, spring force relaxation due to irradiation, and irradiation growth of spacer straps in accordance with time or increase of burnup. The FR support behavior is closely associated with time or increase of burnup. The FR support behavior is closely associated with FR damage due to fretting, therefore the analysis on the FR support behavior is normally required to minimize the damage. The characteristics of the parameters, which affect the FR support behavior, and the methodology developed for estimating the FR support behavior in the reactor core are described in this work. The FR support condition for the KOFA (KOrean Fuel Assembly) fuel has been analyzed by this method, and the results of the analysis show that the fuel failure due to the fuel rod fretting wear is closely related to the support behavior of FR in the core. Therefore, the present methodology for estimating the FR support condition seems to be useful for estimating the actual FR support condition. In addition, the optimization seems to be a reliable tool for establishing the optimal support condition on the basis of these results. (author). 15 refs., 3 tabs., 26 figs

  13. Development of a matrix approach to estimate soil clean-up levels for BTEX compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erbas-White, I.; San Juan, C.

    1993-01-01

    A draft state-of-the-art matrix approach has been developed for the State of Washington to estimate clean-up levels for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) in deep soils based on an endangerment approach to groundwater. Derived soil clean-up levels are estimated using a combination of two computer models, MULTIMED and VLEACH. The matrix uses a simple scoring system that is used to assign a score at a given site based on the parameters such as depth to groundwater, mean annual precipitation, type of soil, distance to potential groundwater receptor and the volume of contaminated soil. The total score is then used to obtain a soil clean-up level from a table. The general approach used involves the utilization of computer models to back-calculate soil contaminant levels in the vadose zone that would create that particular contaminant concentration in groundwater at a given receptor. This usually takes a few iterations of trial runs to estimate the clean-up levels since the models use the soil clean-up levels as ''input'' and the groundwater levels as ''output.'' The selected contaminant levels in groundwater are Model Toxic control Act (MTCA) values used in the State of Washington

  14. Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judi, David R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcpherson, Timothy N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Burian, Steven J [UNIV OF UTAK

    2009-01-01

    A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.

  15. Developing a new solar radiation estimation model based on Buckingham theorem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekici, Can; Teke, Ismail

    2018-06-01

    While the value of solar radiation can be expressed physically in the days without clouds, this expression becomes difficult in cloudy and complicated weather conditions. In addition, solar radiation measurements are often not taken in developing countries. In such cases, solar radiation estimation models are used. Solar radiation prediction models estimate solar radiation using other measured meteorological parameters those are available in the stations. In this study, a solar radiation estimation model was obtained using Buckingham theorem. This theory has been shown to be useful in predicting solar radiation. In this study, Buckingham theorem is used to express the solar radiation by derivation of dimensionless pi parameters. This derived model is compared with temperature based models in the literature. MPE, RMSE, MBE and NSE error analysis methods are used in this comparison. Allen, Hargreaves, Chen and Bristow-Campbell models in the literature are used for comparison. North Dakota's meteorological data were used to compare the models. Error analysis were applied through the comparisons between the models in the literature and the model that is derived in the study. These comparisons were made using data obtained from North Dakota's agricultural climate network. In these applications, the model obtained within the scope of the study gives better results. Especially, in terms of short-term performance, it has been found that the obtained model gives satisfactory results. It has been seen that this model gives better accuracy in comparison with other models. It is possible in RMSE analysis results. Buckingham theorem was found useful in estimating solar radiation. In terms of long term performances and percentage errors, the model has given good results.

  16. Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jae Joo

    1998-03-01

    The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

  17. Developing a model to estimate the potential impact of municipal investment on city health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Malcolm; Machaczek, Katarzyna; Green, Geoff

    2013-10-01

    This article summarizes a process which exemplifies the potential impact of municipal investment on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in city populations. We report on Developing an evidence-based approach to city public health planning and investment in Europe (DECiPHEr), a project part funded by the European Union. It had twin objectives: first, to develop and validate a vocational educational training package for policy makers and political decision takers; second, to use this opportunity to iterate a robust and user-friendly investment tool for maximizing the public health impact of 'mainstream' municipal policies, programs and investments. There were seven stages in the development process shared by an academic team from Sheffield Hallam University and partners from four cities drawn from the WHO European Healthy Cities Network. There were five iterations of the model resulting from this process. The initial focus was CVD as the biggest cause of death and disability in Europe. Our original prototype 'cost offset' model was confined to proximal determinants of CVD, utilizing modified 'Framingham' equations to estimate the impact of population level cardiovascular risk factor reduction on future demand for acute hospital admissions. The DECiPHEr iterations first extended the scope of the model to distal determinants and then focused progressively on practical interventions. Six key domains of local influence on population health were introduced into the model by the development process: education, housing, environment, public health, economy and security. Deploying a realist synthesis methodology, the model then connected distal with proximal determinants of CVD. Existing scientific evidence and cities' experiential knowledge were 'plugged-in' or 'triangulated' to elaborate the causal pathways from domain interventions to public health impacts. A key product is an enhanced version of the cost offset model, named Sheffield Health Effectiveness Framework

  18. Development of Turbulent Diffusion Transfer Algorithms to Estimate Lake Tahoe Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B.; Schladow, S. G.; Reuter, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    The evaporative loss is a dominant component in the Lake Tahoe hydrologic budget because watershed area (813km2) is very small compared to the lake surface area (501 km2). The 5.5 m high dam built at the lake's only outlet, the Truckee River at Tahoe City can increase the lake's capacity by approximately 0.9185 km3. The lake serves as a flood protection for downstream areas and source of water supply for downstream cities, irrigation, hydropower, and instream environmental requirements. When the lake water level falls below the natural rim, cessation of flows from the lake cause problems for water supply, irrigation, and fishing. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms to correctly estimate the lake hydrologic budget. We developed a turbulent diffusion transfer model and coupled to the dynamic lake model (DLM-WQ). We generated the stream flows and pollutants loadings of the streams using the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) supported watershed model, Loading Simulation Program in C++ (LSPC). The bulk transfer coefficients were calibrated using correlation coefficient (R2) as the objective function. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for the meteorological inputs and model parameters. The DLM-WQ estimated lake water level and water temperatures were in agreement to those of measured records with R2 equal to 0.96 and 0.99, respectively for the period 1994 to 2008. The estimated average evaporation from the lake, stream inflow, precipitation over the lake, groundwater fluxes, and outflow from the lake during 1994 to 2008 were found to be 32.0%, 25.0%, 19.0%, 0.3%, and 11.7%, respectively.

  19. Airframe RDT&E Cost Estimating: A Justification for and Development of Unique Cost Estimating Relationships According to Aircraft Type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-09-01

    grouping data on a statistical basis and empirical clustering of observations. Simply stated, factor analysis develops a few constructs for the total...8217 . ; ;AI - U .*- .. ." ... , -Lt" U :% 170.,, ..’ ,:, -:iZ,: . APPENDIX G FACTOR ANALYSIS INITIAL 1 71 239= RUN UKI FACTOR ANALISIS 𔃾

  20. Development of a package program for estimating ground level concentrations of radioactive gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilkamhang, W.

    1986-01-01

    A package program for estimating ground level concentration of radioactive gas from elevate release was develop for use on IBM P C microcomputer. The main program, GAMMA PLUME NT10, is based on the well known VALLEY MODEL which is a Fortran computer code intended for mainframe computers. Other two options were added, namely, calculation of radioactive gas ground level concentration in Ci/m 3 and dose equivalent rate in mren/hr. In addition, a menu program and editor program were developed to render the program easier to use since the option could be readily selected and the input data could be easily modified as required through the keyboard. The accuracy and reliability of the program is almost identical to the mainframe. Ground level concentration of radioactive radon gas due to ore program processing in the nuclear chemistry laboratory of the Department of Nuclear Technology was estimated. In processing radioactive ore at a rate of 2 kg/day, about 35 p Ci/s of radioactive gas was released from a 14 m stack. When meteorological data of Don Muang (average for 5 years 1978-1982) were used maximum ground level concentration and the dose equivalent rate were found to be 0.00094 p Ci/m 3 and 5.0 x 10 -10 mrem/hr respectively. The processing time required for the above problem was about 7 minutes for any case of source on IBM P C which was acceptable for a computer of this class

  1. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

    2015-01-01

    Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

  2. Earth observations for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeFries, Ruth; Achard, Frederic; Brown, Sandra; Herold, Martin; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Souza, Carlos de

    2007-01-01

    In response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process investigating the technical issues surrounding the ability to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation in developing countries, this paper reviews technical capabilities for monitoring deforestation and estimating emissions. Implementation of policies to reduce emissions from deforestation require effective deforestation monitoring systems that are reproducible, provide consistent results, meet standards for mapping accuracy, and can be implemented at the national level. Remotely sensed data supported by ground observations are key to effective monitoring. Capacity in developing countries for deforestation monitoring is well-advanced in a few countries and is a feasible goal in most others. Data sources exist to determine base periods in the 1990s as historical reference points. Forest degradation (e.g. from high impact logging and fragmentation) also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions but it is more technically challenging to measure than deforestation. Data on carbon stocks, which are needed to estimate emissions, cannot currently be observed directly over large areas with remote sensing. Guidelines for carbon accounting from deforestation exist and are available in approved Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and can be applied at national scales in the absence of forest inventory or other data. Key constraints for implementing programs to monitor greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation are international commitment of resources to increase capacity, coordination of observations to ensure pan-tropical coverage, access to free or low-cost data, and standard and consensual protocols for data interpretation and analysis

  3. Development of an Android application to estimate the parameters of DEP from the radiographic exam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Flavio Augusto P.; Soares, Carina Klein; Martins, Alex Sander C.; Filgueiras, Tatiana Pereira; Recalcatti, Victor; Heis, Adriano

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research was to develop an application for the Android operating system to calculate the entrance dose in the skin - DEP for the professional radiological techniques can estimate the dose absorbed by the patient. The application was written with the help of the ECLIPSE development suite together with the Google SDK. The DEP-Calc was designed to be used in a mobile device, so the program consists of simple and self-explanatory screens, occupies a small space in the internal memory of the device and is easy to use.To obtain the value of the DEP of a radiographic examination, the practitioner provides the variables used in the examination as well as the device, and from this information, the program calculates the value of the DEP. With its use, as well as meet a legal requirement, allows an improvement in image quality and dose optimization, since the professional has knowledge of the radiation produced. (author)

  4. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  5. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  6. Detector development and background estimation for the observation of Coherent Neutrino Nucleus Scattering (CNNS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guetlein, Achim; Ciemniak, Christian; Feilitzsch, Franz von; Lanfranchi, Jean-Come; Oberauer, Lothar; Potzel, Walter; Roth, Sabine; Schoenert, Stefan; Sivers, Moritz von; Strauss, Raimund; Wawoczny, Stefan; Willers, Michael; Zoeller, Andreas [Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Physik-Department, E15 (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The Coherent Neutrino Nucleus Scattering (CNNS) is a neutral current process of the weak interaction and is thus flavor independent. A low-energetic neutrino scatters off a target nucleus. For low transferred momenta the wavelength of the transferred Z{sup 0} boson is comparable to the diameter of the target nucleus. Thus, the neutrino interacts with all nucleons coherently and the cross section for the CNNS is enhanced. To observe CNNS for the first time we are developing cryogenic detectors with a target mass of about 10 g each and an energy threshold of less than 0.5 keV. The current status of this development is presented as well as the estimated background for an experiment in the vicinity of a nuclear power reactor as a strong neutrino source.

  7. Effect of water resource development and management on lymphatic filariasis, and estimates of populations at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlanger, Tobias E; Keiser, Jennifer; Caldas De Castro, Marcia; Bos, Robert; Singer, Burton H; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

    2005-09-01

    Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating disease overwhelmingly caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, which is transmitted by various mosquito species. Here, we present a systematic literature review with the following objectives: (i) to establish global and regional estimates of populations at risk of LF with particular consideration of water resource development projects, and (ii) to assess the effects of water resource development and management on the frequency and transmission dynamics of the disease. We estimate that globally, 2 billion people are at risk of LF. Among them, there are 394.5 million urban dwellers without access to improved sanitation and 213 million rural dwellers living in close proximity to irrigation. Environmental changes due to water resource development and management consistently led to a shift in vector species composition and generally to a strong proliferation of vector populations. For example, in World Health Organization (WHO) subregions 1 and 2, mosquito densities of the Anopheles gambiae complex and Anopheles funestus were up to 25-fold higher in irrigated areas when compared with irrigation-free sites. Although the infection prevalence of LF often increased after the implementation of a water project, there was no clear association with clinical symptoms. Concluding, there is a need to assess and quantify changes of LF transmission parameters and clinical manifestations over the entire course of water resource developments. Where resources allow, integrated vector management should complement mass drug administration, and broad-based monitoring and surveillance of the disease should become an integral part of large-scale waste management and sanitation programs, whose basic rationale lies in a systemic approach to city, district, and regional level health services and disease prevention.

  8. Development and application of a mechanistic model to estimate emission of nitrous oxide from UK agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, L.; Jarvis, S.C.; Syed, B.; Goulding, K.W.T.; Li, C.

    2002-01-01

    A mechanistic model of N 2 O emission from agricultural soil (DeNitrification-DeComposition - DNDC) was modified for application to the UK, and was used as the basis of an inventory of N 2 O emission from UK agriculture in 1990. UK-specific input data were added to DNDC's database and the ability to simulate daily C and N inputs from grazing animals and applied animal waste was added to the model. The UK version of the model, UK-DNDC, simulated emissions from 18 different crop types on the 3 areally dominant soils in each county. Validation of the model at the field scale showed that predictions matched observations well. Emission factors for the inventory were calculated from estimates of N 2 O emission from UK-DNDC, in order to maintain direct comparability with the IPCC approach. These, along with activity data, were included in a transparent spreadsheet format. Using UK-DNDC, the estimate of N 2 O-N emission from UK current agricultural practice in 1990 was 50.9Gg. This total comprised 31.7Gg from the soil sector, 5.9Gg from animals and 13.2Gg from the indirect sector. The range of this estimate (using the range of soil organic C for each soil used) was 30.5-62.5Gg N. Estimates of emissions in each sector were compared to those calculated using the IPCC default methodology. Emissions from the soil and indirect sectors were smaller with the UK-DNDC approach than with the IPCC methodology, while emissions from the animal sector were larger. The model runs suggested a relatively large emission from agricultural land that was not attributable to current agricultural practices (33.8Gg in total, 27.4Gg from the soil sector). This 'background' component is partly the result of historical agricultural land use. It is not normally included in inventories of emission, but would increase the total emission of N 2 O-N from agricultural land in 1990 to 78.3Gg. (Author)

  9. Development and application of a mechanistic model to estimate emission of nitrous oxide from UK agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, L.; Jarvis, S.C. [Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research, Okehampton (United Kingdom); Syed, B. [Cranfield Univ., Silsoe (United Kingdom). Soil Survey and Land Research Centre; Sneath, R.W.; Phillips, V.R. [Silsoe Research Inst. (United Kingdom); Goulding, K.W.T. [Institute of Arable Crops Research, Rothamsted (United Kingdom); Li, C. [University of New Hampshire (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space

    2002-07-01

    A mechanistic model of N{sub 2}O emission from agricultural soil (DeNitrification-DeComposition - DNDC) was modified for application to the UK, and was used as the basis of an inventory of N{sub 2}O emission from UK agriculture in 1990. UK-specific input data were added to DNDC's database and the ability to simulate daily C and N inputs from grazing animals and applied animal waste was added to the model. The UK version of the model, UK-DNDC, simulated emissions from 18 different crop types on the 3 areally dominant soils in each county. Validation of the model at the field scale showed that predictions matched observations well. Emission factors for the inventory were calculated from estimates of N{sub 2}O emission from UK-DNDC, in order to maintain direct comparability with the IPCC approach. These, along with activity data, were included in a transparent spreadsheet format. Using UK-DNDC, the estimate of N{sub 2}O-N emission from UK current agricultural practice in 1990 was 50.9Gg. This total comprised 31.7Gg from the soil sector, 5.9Gg from animals and 13.2Gg from the indirect sector. The range of this estimate (using the range of soil organic C for each soil used) was 30.5-62.5Gg N. Estimates of emissions in each sector were compared to those calculated using the IPCC default methodology. Emissions from the soil and indirect sectors were smaller with the UK-DNDC approach than with the IPCC methodology, while emissions from the animal sector were larger. The model runs suggested a relatively large emission from agricultural land that was not attributable to current agricultural practices (33.8Gg in total, 27.4Gg from the soil sector). This 'background' component is partly the result of historical agricultural land use. It is not normally included in inventories of emission, but would increase the total emission of N{sub 2}O-N from agricultural land in 1990 to 78.3Gg. (Author)

  10. Development and application of a mechanistic model to estimate emission of nitrous oxide from UK agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, L.; Syed, B.; Jarvis, S. C.; Sneath, R. W.; Phillips, V. R.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Li, C.

    A mechanistic model of N 2O emission from agricultural soil (DeNitrification-DeComposition—DNDC) was modified for application to the UK, and was used as the basis of an inventory of N 2O emission from UK agriculture in 1990. UK-specific input data were added to DNDC's database and the ability to simulate daily C and N inputs from grazing animals and applied animal waste was added to the model. The UK version of the model, UK-DNDC, simulated emissions from 18 different crop types on the 3 areally dominant soils in each county. Validation of the model at the field scale showed that predictions matched observations well. Emission factors for the inventory were calculated from estimates of N 2O emission from UK-DNDC, in order to maintain direct comparability with the IPCC approach. These, along with activity data, were included in a transparent spreadsheet format. Using UK-DNDC, the estimate of N 2O-N emission from UK current agricultural practice in 1990 was 50.9 Gg. This total comprised 31.7 Gg from the soil sector, 5.9 Gg from animals and 13.2 Gg from the indirect sector. The range of this estimate (using the range of soil organic C for each soil used) was 30.5-62.5 Gg N. Estimates of emissions in each sector were compared to those calculated using the IPCC default methodology. Emissions from the soil and indirect sectors were smaller with the UK-DNDC approach than with the IPCC methodology, while emissions from the animal sector were larger. The model runs suggested a relatively large emission from agricultural land that was not attributable to current agricultural practices (33.8 Gg in total, 27.4 Gg from the soil sector). This 'background' component is partly the result of historical agricultural land use. It is not normally included in inventories of emission, but would increase the total emission of N 2O-N from agricultural land in 1990 to 78.3 Gg.

  11. Estimating patient dose from CT exams that use automatic exposure control: Development and validation of methods to accurately estimate tube current values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Kyle; Bostani, Maryam; Cagnon, Christopher H; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; McCollough, Cynthia H; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

    2017-08-01

    The vast majority of body CT exams are performed with automatic exposure control (AEC), which adapts the mean tube current to the patient size and modulates the tube current either angularly, longitudinally or both. However, most radiation dose estimation tools are based on fixed tube current scans. Accurate estimates of patient dose from AEC scans require knowledge of the tube current values, which is usually unavailable. The purpose of this work was to develop and validate methods to accurately estimate the tube current values prescribed by one manufacturer's AEC system to enable accurate estimates of patient dose. Methods were developed that took into account available patient attenuation information, user selected image quality reference parameters and x-ray system limits to estimate tube current values for patient scans. Methods consistent with AAPM Report 220 were developed that used patient attenuation data that were: (a) supplied by the manufacturer in the CT localizer radiograph and (b) based on a simulated CT localizer radiograph derived from image data. For comparison, actual tube current values were extracted from the projection data of each patient. Validation of each approach was based on data collected from 40 pediatric and adult patients who received clinically indicated chest (n = 20) and abdomen/pelvis (n = 20) scans on a 64 slice multidetector row CT (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). For each patient dataset, the following were collected with Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval: (a) projection data containing actual tube current values at each projection view, (b) CT localizer radiograph (topogram) and (c) reconstructed image data. Tube current values were estimated based on the actual topogram (actual-topo) as well as the simulated topogram based on image data (sim-topo). Each of these was compared to the actual tube current values from the patient scan. In addition, to assess the accuracy of each method in estimating

  12. Development of a Cost Estimation Process for Human Systems Integration Practitioners During the Analysis of Alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-01

    processes. Novice estimators must often use of these complicated cost estimation tools (e.g., ACEIT , SEER-H, SEER-S, PRICE-H, PRICE-S, etc.) until...However, the thesis will leverage the processes embedded in cost estimation tools such as the Automated Cost Estimating Integration Tool ( ACEIT ) and the

  13. Toward the Development of a Model to Estimate the Readability of Credentialing-Examination Materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badgett, Barbara A.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a set of procedures to establish readability, including an equation, that accommodates the multiple-choice item format and occupational-specific language related to credentialing examinations. The procedures and equation should be appropriate for learning materials, examination materials, and occupational…

  14. Development of corresponding states model for estimation of the surface tension of chemical compounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gharagheizi, Farhad; Eslamimanesh, Ali; Sattari, Mehdi

    2013-01-01

    include critical temperature or temperature/critical volume/acentric factor/critical pressure/reduced temperature/reduced normal boiling point temperature/molecular weight of the compounds. Around 1,300 surface tension data of 118 random compounds are used for developing the first model (a four...

  15. Development of Flight-Test Performance Estimation Techniques for Small Unmanned Aerial Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrink, Matthew Henry

    This dissertation provides a flight-testing framework for assessing the performance of fixed-wing, small-scale unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) by leveraging sub-system models of components unique to these vehicles. The development of the sub-system models, and their links to broader impacts on sUAS performance, is the key contribution of this work. The sub-system modeling and analysis focuses on the vehicle's propulsion, navigation and guidance, and airframe components. Quantification of the uncertainty in the vehicle's power available and control states is essential for assessing the validity of both the methods and results obtained from flight-tests. Therefore, detailed propulsion and navigation system analyses are presented to validate the flight testing methodology. Propulsion system analysis required the development of an analytic model of the propeller in order to predict the power available over a range of flight conditions. The model is based on the blade element momentum (BEM) method. Additional corrections are added to the basic model in order to capture the Reynolds-dependent scale effects unique to sUAS. The model was experimentally validated using a ground based testing apparatus. The BEM predictions and experimental analysis allow for a parameterized model relating the electrical power, measurable during flight, to the power available required for vehicle performance analysis. Navigation system details are presented with a specific focus on the sensors used for state estimation, and the resulting uncertainty in vehicle state. Uncertainty quantification is provided by detailed calibration techniques validated using quasi-static and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) ground based testing. The HIL methods introduced use a soft real-time flight simulator to provide inertial quality data for assessing overall system performance. Using this tool, the uncertainty in vehicle state estimation based on a range of sensors, and vehicle operational environments is

  16. Development of an estimated food record for 9-36-month-old toddlers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbig, A; Drossard, C; Kersting, M; Alexy, U

    2014-08-01

    Adequacy of dietary intake in the sensitive period of toddler development is a key determinant of health in a short- and long-term perspective. Therefore, studies focussing the nutrition of toddlers are of importance. For this purpose, tailored dietary record methods are an important prerequisite. The objective of this work is to develop a toddler-specific estimated food record (EFR) in a booklet providing photographs of age-specific foods and portion sizes that should be accurate and simple. For a toddler study in Germany, a 7-day consecutive EFR was developed. Data were obtained from a sample of toddlers in Germany. The basis is an evaluation of 3-day weighing food records on food choice and portion size of the DONALD (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed) study for 227 toddlers (118 boys) aged 9-36 months from January 2004 to March 2008. In the analysed food records, a total of 15.147 eating occasions with 24.820 dishes were reported and grouped in 17 food groups. To estimate the portion size, the median consumption amounts of the 194 most frequently consumed dishes were calculated and photographed. Formula and commercial complementary food are collected separately. EFR was structured into seven eating occasions of the day: before breakfast, breakfast, mid-morning, lunch, mid-afternoon, dinner, and before bed. The EFR booklet provides a simple, feasible and validated instrument that can be used to update information on dietary habits during the transition from infant to childhood diet for families in different social classes.

  17. Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) Best Estimated Trajectory Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Greg N.; Brown, Aaron

    2016-01-01

    The Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission successfully flew on Dec 5, 2014 atop a Delta IV Heavy launch vehicle. The goal of Orions maiden flight was to stress the system by placing an uncrewed vehicle on a high-energy trajectory replicating conditions similar to those that would be experienced when returning from an asteroid or a lunar mission. The Orion navigation team combined all trajectory data from the mission into a Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) product. There were significant challenges in data reconstruction and many lessons were learned for future missions. The team used an estimation filter incorporating radar tracking, onboard sensors (Global Positioning System and Inertial Measurement Unit), and day-of-flight weather balloons to evaluate the true trajectory flown by Orion. Data was published for the entire Orion EFT-1 flight, plus objects jettisoned during entry such as the Forward Bay Cover. The BET customers include approximately 20 disciplines within Orion who will use the information for evaluating vehicle performance and influencing future design decisions.

  18. Development of a J-estimation scheme for internal circumferential and axial surface cracks in elbows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohan, R.; Brust, F.W.; Ghadiali, N.; Wilkowski, G.

    1996-06-01

    This report summarizes efforts to develop elastic and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analyses for internal surface cracks in elbows. The analyses involved development of a GE/EPRI type J-estimation scheme which requires an elastic and fully plastic contribution to crack-driving force in terms of the J-integral parameter. The elastic analyses require the development of F-function values to relate the J e term to applied loads. Similarly, the fully plastic analyses require the development of h-functions to relate the J p term to the applied loads. The F- and h-functions were determined from a matrix of finite element analyses. To minimize the cost of the analyses, three-dimensional ABAQUS finite element analyses were compared to a simpler finite element technique called the line-spring method. The line-spring method provides a significant computational savings over the full three-dimensional analysis. The comparison showed excellent agreement between the line-spring and three-dimensional analysis. This experience was consistent with comparisons with circumferential surface-crack analyses in straight pipes during the NRC's Short Cracks in Piping and Piping Welds program

  19. Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

    2012-11-01

    In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

  20. Estimation of CO2 emission from water treatment plant--model development and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyung, Daeseung; Kim, Dongwook; Park, Nosuk; Lee, Woojin

    2013-12-15

    A comprehensive mathematical model developed for this study was used to compare estimates of on-site and off-site CO2 emissions, from conventional and advanced water treatment plants (WTPs). When 200,000 m(3) of raw water at 10 NTU (Nepthelometric Turbidity Unit) was treated by a conventional WTP to 0.1 NTU using aluminum sulfate as a coagulant, the total CO2 emissions were estimated to be 790 ± 228 (on-site) and 69,596 ± 3950 (off-site) kg CO2e/d. The emissions from an advanced WTP containing micro-filtration (MF) membrane and ozone disinfection processes; treating the same raw water to 0.005 NTU, were estimated to be 395 ± 115 (on-site) and 38,197 ± 2922 (off-site) kg CO2e/d. The on-site CO2 emissions from the advanced WTP were half that from the conventional WTP due to much lower use of coagulant. On the other hand, off-site CO2 emissions due to consumption of electricity were 2.14 times higher for the advanced WTP, due to the demands for operation of the MF membrane and ozone disinfection processes. However, the lower use of chemicals in the advanced WTP decreased off-site CO2 emissions related to chemical production and transportation. Overall, total CO2 emissions from the conventional WTP were 1.82 times higher than that from the advanced WTP. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the advanced WTP to suggest tactics for simultaneously reducing CO2 emissions further and enhancing water quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. DEVELOPMENT OF NEW HYPERSPECTRAL ANGLE INDEX FOR ESTIMATION OF SOIL MOISTURE USING IN SITU SPECTRAL MEASURMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Mobasheri

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Near-surface soil moisture is one of the crucial variables in hydrological processes, which influences the exchange of water and energy fluxes at the land surface/atmosphere interface. Accurate estimate of the spatial and temporal variations of soil moisture is critical for numerous environmental studies. On the other hand, information of distributed soil moisture at large scale with reasonable spatial and temporal resolution is required for improving climatic and hydrologic modeling and prediction. The advent of hyperspectral imagery has allowed examination of continuous spectra not possible with isolated bands in multispectral imagery. In addition to high spectral resolution for individual band analyses, the contiguous narrow bands show characteristics of related absorption features, such as effects of strong absorptions on the band depths of adjacent absorptions. Our objective in this study was to develop a new spectral angle index to estimate soil moisture based on spectral region (350 and 2500 nm. In this paper, using spectral observations made by ASD Spectroradiometer for predicting soil moisture content, two soil indices were also investigated involving the Perpendicular Drought Index (PDI, NMDI (Normalized Multi-band Drought Index indices. Correlation and regression analysis showed a high relationship between PDI and the soil moisture percent (R2 = 0.9537 and NMDI (R2 = 0.9335. Furthermore, we also simulated these data according to the spectral range of some sensors such as MODIS, ASTER, ALI and ETM+. Indices relevant these sensors have high correlation with soil moisture data. Finally, we proposed a new angle index which shows significant relationship between new angle index and the soil moisture percentages (R2 = 0.9432.angle index relevant bands 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 MODIS also showing high accuracy in estimation of soil moisture (R2 = 0.719.

  2. Development of estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for use with the short willet food frequency questionnaire

    OpenAIRE

    Griesenbeck, John S; Steck, Michelle D; Huber, John C; Sharkey, Joseph R; Rene, Antonio A; Brender, Jean D

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Studies have suggested that nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines have an etiologic role in adverse pregnancy outcomes and chronic diseases such as cancer. Although an extensive body of literature exists on estimates of these compounds in foods, the extant data varies in quality, quantified estimates, and relevance. Methods We developed estimates of nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for food items listed in the Short Willet Food Frequency Questionnaire (WFFQ) as adapted ...

  3. Automatic performance estimation of conceptual temperature control system design for rapid development of real system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Yu Jin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an automatic performance estimation scheme of conceptual temperature control system with multi-heater configuration prior to constructing the physical system for achieving rapid validation of the conceptual design. An appropriate low-order discrete-time model, which will be used in the controller design, is constructed after determining several basic factors including the geometric shape of controlled object and heaters, material properties, heater arrangement, etc. The proposed temperature controller, which adopts the multivariable GPC (generalized predictive control) scheme with scale factors, is then constructed automatically based on the above model. The performance of the conceptual temperature control system is evaluated by using a FEM (finite element method) simulation combined with the controller.

  4. [Development of weight-estimation formulae for the bedridden elderly requiring care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oonishi, Reiko; Fujii, Kouji; Tsuda, Hiroko; Imai, Katsumi

    2012-01-01

    Bedridden elderly persons requiring care need special body-weight measurement implements, and body-weighting assumes more difficult if they live at their own homes. Therefore, we tried to design a new weight-estimation formulae using various anthropometric variables. The subjects were 33 male and 132 female elderly inpatients certified to be at care level 4 or 5. The body composition included height, body weight, arm circumference, triceps skinfold thickness, subscapular skinfold thickness, calf circumference, and waist circumference. We studied the correlation between the body weight and each anthropometric variable and age. In men, the highest correlation with body weight was shown by waist circumference (r=0.891, pbedridden elderly patients requiring care.

  5. Automatic performance estimation of conceptual temperature control system design for rapid development of real system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Yu Jin [Dongguk University, GyeongJu (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-07-15

    This paper presents an automatic performance estimation scheme of conceptual temperature control system with multi-heater configuration prior to constructing the physical system for achieving rapid validation of the conceptual design. An appropriate low-order discrete-time model, which will be used in the controller design, is constructed after determining several basic factors including the geometric shape of controlled object and heaters, material properties, heater arrangement, etc. The proposed temperature controller, which adopts the multivariable GPC (generalized predictive control) scheme with scale factors, is then constructed automatically based on the above model. The performance of the conceptual temperature control system is evaluated by using a FEM (finite element method) simulation combined with the controller.

  6. Development of rapid methods for relaxation time mapping and motion estimation using magnetic resonance imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilani, Syed Irtiza Ali

    2008-09-15

    Recent technological developments in the field of magnetic resonance imaging have resulted in advanced techniques that can reduce the total time to acquire images. For applications such as relaxation time mapping, which enables improved visualisation of in vivo structures, rapid imaging techniques are highly desirable. TAPIR is a Look- Locker-based sequence for high-resolution, multislice T{sub 1} relaxation time mapping. Despite the high accuracy and precision of TAPIR, an improvement in the k-space sampling trajectory is desired to acquire data in clinically acceptable times. In this thesis, a new trajectory, termed line-sharing, is introduced for TAPIR that can potentially reduce the acquisition time by 40 %. Additionally, the line-sharing method was compared with the GRAPPA parallel imaging method. These methods were employed to reconstruct time-point images from the data acquired on a 4T high-field MR research scanner. Multislice, multipoint in vivo results obtained using these methods are presented. Despite improvement in acquisition speed, through line-sharing, for example, motion remains a problem and artefact-free data cannot always be obtained. Therefore, in this thesis, a rapid technique is introduced to estimate in-plane motion. The presented technique is based on calculating the in-plane motion parameters, i.e., translation and rotation, by registering the low-resolution MR images. The rotation estimation method is based on the pseudo-polar FFT, where the Fourier domain is composed of frequencies that reside in an oversampled set of non-angularly, equispaced points. The essence of the method is that unlike other Fourier-based registration schemes, the employed approach does not require any interpolation to calculate the pseudo-polar FFT grid coordinates. Translation parameters are estimated by the phase correlation method. However, instead of two-dimensional analysis of the phase correlation matrix, a low complexity subspace identification of the phase

  7. Development of rapid methods for relaxation time mapping and motion estimation using magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilani, Syed Irtiza Ali

    2008-09-01

    Recent technological developments in the field of magnetic resonance imaging have resulted in advanced techniques that can reduce the total time to acquire images. For applications such as relaxation time mapping, which enables improved visualisation of in vivo structures, rapid imaging techniques are highly desirable. TAPIR is a Look- Locker-based sequence for high-resolution, multislice T 1 relaxation time mapping. Despite the high accuracy and precision of TAPIR, an improvement in the k-space sampling trajectory is desired to acquire data in clinically acceptable times. In this thesis, a new trajectory, termed line-sharing, is introduced for TAPIR that can potentially reduce the acquisition time by 40 %. Additionally, the line-sharing method was compared with the GRAPPA parallel imaging method. These methods were employed to reconstruct time-point images from the data acquired on a 4T high-field MR research scanner. Multislice, multipoint in vivo results obtained using these methods are presented. Despite improvement in acquisition speed, through line-sharing, for example, motion remains a problem and artefact-free data cannot always be obtained. Therefore, in this thesis, a rapid technique is introduced to estimate in-plane motion. The presented technique is based on calculating the in-plane motion parameters, i.e., translation and rotation, by registering the low-resolution MR images. The rotation estimation method is based on the pseudo-polar FFT, where the Fourier domain is composed of frequencies that reside in an oversampled set of non-angularly, equispaced points. The essence of the method is that unlike other Fourier-based registration schemes, the employed approach does not require any interpolation to calculate the pseudo-polar FFT grid coordinates. Translation parameters are estimated by the phase correlation method. However, instead of two-dimensional analysis of the phase correlation matrix, a low complexity subspace identification of the phase

  8. Kinetic Modeling of the Lif:Mg,Ti TL System including Defect Creation: Implications to, and Development of Track Structure Theory Calculations of Heavy Charged Particle Radiation Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliyahu, Ian

    2015-01-01

    relative OA band HCP induced efficiencies as described in the following. The high fluence region has allowed the determination of the saturation concentration of the F band and 4.77 eV band using the Beer-Lambert and Smakula formulas. The results indicate order of magnitude enhanced concentrations of vii these centers following the proton and He irradiations relative to photon irradiation. 2. Kinetic Analysis: The second focus of investigation was the development of a kinetic model to describe charge carrier transport in the LiF:Mg,Ti system including three features delineated in the following. The primary motivation for the kinetic analysis was the intention to modify track structure theory by taking into account enhanced vacancy/F center creation in the low ionization density kinetic simulations but was expanded in order to simulate the unique features of dose response in LiF:Mg,Ti. The kinetic model includes: c) Estimated electron-hole (e-h) and e-only population of the spatially correlated trapping center/luminescent center responsible for composite glow peak 5 in the glow curve of LiF:Mg,Ti. d) Combined localized and delocalized recombination of the e-h and e-only centers in the recombination stage. These features are shown to be capable of simulating both the linear/supralinear dose response and the dependence of the supralinearity on photon energy as is observed for composite peak 5. Both of these characteristics have previously eluded the predictive powers of kinetic theory based exclusively on delocalized recombination. e) Vacancy/F center creation in the irradiation stage including vacancyinterstitial recombination. The kinetic model with the latter mechanisms attempts to resolve a central question concerning the mechanisms leading to the linear/exponentially saturating dose response of the F band even though Fluorine vacancies are being continuously created during the irradiation. The electron-trapping characteristics of the created vacancies are assumed to

  9. Progress in the Development of J Estimation Schemes for the RSE-M Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Delliou, Patrick; Sermage, Jean-Philippe; Cambefort, Pierre; Barthelet, Bruno; Gilles, Philippe; Michel, Bruno

    2002-01-01

    The RSE-M Code provides rules and requirements for in-service inspection of French Pressurized Water Reactor power plant components. The Code gives non mandatory guidance for analytical evaluation of flaws. To calculate the stress intensity factors in pipes and shells containing semi-elliptical surface defects, influence coefficients are given for a wide range of geometrical parameters. To calculate the J integral for a circumferential surface crack in a straight pipe, simplified methods are available in the present version of the Code (2000 Addenda) for mechanical loads (in-plane bending and torsion moments, pressure), thermal loads as well as for the combination of these loads. This paper presents the recent advances in the development of J-estimation schemes for two configurations: a longitudinal surface crack in a straight pipe, a longitudinal surface crack in the mid-section of an elbow. (authors)

  10. Subsoil exploration of the estimated building site for nuclear fuel development and fabrication facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, In Taek [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this report, as the result of subsoil exploration, is to provide basic design data of structural plan for nuclear fuel development and fabrication facility that is builded on Duckjin 150, Yusong, Taejeon, Korea, and provide basic data for execution of work. The soft rock level of estimated building site is deep(18.0m:BH-1, 20.5m:BH-2, 25.5m:BH-3) and the hard rock level of it is very deep (33.0m:BH-1, 46.0m:BH-2, 34.5m:BH-3) , for structural design, the hard rock shall be the bottom of foundation. 9 figs., 19 tabs. (Author)

  11. Using the Optical Fractionator to Estimate Total Cell Numbers in the Normal and Abnormal Developing Human Forebrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Karen B

    2017-01-01

    abnormal development. Furthermore, many studies of brain cell numbers have employed biased counting methods, whereas innovations in stereology during the past 20-30 years enable reliable and efficient estimates of cell numbers. However, estimates of cell volumes and densities in fetal brain samples...

  12. Co-operation of the CMEA member countries in the development of different reactor types, including certain aspects of their nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panasenkov, A.; Barbur, I.; Barchenkov, A.; Molnar, L.; Tolpygo, V.; Khake, V.; Shcherbinin, B.

    1977-01-01

    The report gives an account of the problems of the projected development of atomic power and evaluates its role in the fuel and power complex and long-range development of interconnected power systems of the CMEA member countries. The report emphasizes the importance of scientific and technical co-operation in the creation of thermal and fast-neutron power reactors with 1000-1500MW(e) units, and in the elaboration of nuclear plants for heating services. The positive experience of the international scientific and research group of scientists of the CMEA member countries carrying out reactor-physics studies on critical assemblies is mentioned. The report contains basic conclusions from the forecasts for nuclear power in the CMEA member countries up to 1990, including forecasting methodology; the role of nuclear power plants in saving natural and enriched uranium for a projected period; and the impact of nuclear power development rates on its structure (thermal and fast reactor ratio). It lists the impacts of scientific and technical co-operation of the CMEA member countries on the fuel cycle, including the transport of spent nuclear fuel, its recovery, reprocessing and radioactive waste disposal. Particular effects of co-operation of the CMEA member countries on the radiation safety of nuclear power plants and environmental protection are analysed. The report notes the role of the international economic associations Interatomenergo and Interatominstrument in the accelerated development of nuclear power. (author)

  13. Estimating the development assistance for health provided to faith-based organizations, 1990-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haakenstad, Annie; Johnson, Elizabeth; Graves, Casey; Olivier, Jill; Duff, Jean; Dieleman, Joseph L

    2015-01-01

    Faith-based organizations (FBOs) have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH) channeled through these organizations. Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs. In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund's contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation's contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs. Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health.

  14. Development of Non-Optimum Factors for Launch Vehicle Propellant Tank Bulkhead Weight Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, K. Chauncey; Wallace, Matthew L.; Cerro, Jeffrey A.

    2012-01-01

    Non-optimum factors are used during aerospace conceptual and preliminary design to account for the increased weights of as-built structures due to future manufacturing and design details. Use of higher-fidelity non-optimum factors in these early stages of vehicle design can result in more accurate predictions of a concept s actual weights and performance. To help achieve this objective, non-optimum factors are calculated for the aluminum-alloy gores that compose the ogive and ellipsoidal bulkheads of the Space Shuttle Super-Lightweight Tank propellant tanks. Minimum values for actual gore skin thicknesses and weld land dimensions are extracted from selected production drawings, and are used to predict reference gore weights. These actual skin thicknesses are also compared to skin thicknesses predicted using classical structural mechanics and tank proof-test pressures. Both coarse and refined weights models are developed for the gores. The coarse model is based on the proof pressure-sized skin thicknesses, and the refined model uses the actual gore skin thicknesses and design detail dimensions. To determine the gore non-optimum factors, these reference weights are then compared to flight hardware weights reported in a mass properties database. When manufacturing tolerance weight estimates are taken into account, the gore non-optimum factors computed using the coarse weights model range from 1.28 to 2.76, with an average non-optimum factor of 1.90. Application of the refined weights model yields non-optimum factors between 1.00 and 1.50, with an average non-optimum factor of 1.14. To demonstrate their use, these calculated non-optimum factors are used to predict heavier, more realistic gore weights for a proposed heavy-lift launch vehicle s propellant tank bulkheads. These results indicate that relatively simple models can be developed to better estimate the actual weights of large structures for future launch vehicles.

  15. Development of a Computer Code for the Estimation of Fuel Rod Failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rhee, I.H.; Ahn, H.J. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    Much research has already been performed to obtain the information on the degree of failed fuel rods from the primary coolant activities of operating PWRs in the last few decades. The computer codes that are currently in use for domestic nuclear power plants, such as CADE code and ABB-CE codes developed by Westinghouse and ABB-CE, respectively, still give significant overall errors in estimating the failed fuel rods. In addition, with the CADE code, it is difficult to predict the degree of fuel rod failures during the transient period of nuclear reactor operation, where as the ABB-CE codes are relatively more difficult to use for end-users. In particular, the rapid progresses made recently in the area of the computer hardware and software systems that their computer programs be more versatile and user-friendly. While the MS windows system that is centered on the graphic user interface and multitasking is now in widespread use, the computer codes currently employed at the nuclear power plants, such as CADE and ABB-CE codes, can only be run on the DOS system. Moreover, it is desirable to have a computer code for the fuel rod failure estimation that can directly use the radioactivity data obtained from the on-line monitoring system of the primary coolant activity. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to develop a Windows computer code that can predict the location, the number of failed fuel rods,and the degree of failures using the radioactivity data obtained from the primary coolant activity for PWRs. Another objective is to combine this computer code with the on-line monitoring system of the primary coolant radioactivity at Kori 3 and 4 operating nuclear power plants and enable their combined use for on-line evaluation of the number and degree of fuel rod failures. (author). 49 refs., 85 figs., 30 tabs.

  16. Estimating the development assistance for health provided to faith-based organizations, 1990-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annie Haakenstad

    Full Text Available Faith-based organizations (FBOs have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH channeled through these organizations.Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs.In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund's contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation's contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs.Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health.

  17. Estimating the Development Assistance for Health Provided to Faith-Based Organizations, 1990–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haakenstad, Annie; Johnson, Elizabeth; Graves, Casey; Olivier, Jill; Duff, Jean; Dieleman, Joseph L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Faith-based organizations (FBOs) have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH) channeled through these organizations. Material and Methods Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs. Results In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund’s contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation’s contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs. Conclusion Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health. PMID:26042731

  18. EFFECTS OF THALLIUM ON THE LARVAL DEVELOPMENT OF LUCILIA SERICATA MEIGEN 1826 AND PMI ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Gökhan BAŞARAN

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Determination of larval growth rate of and forensic analysis of the age of Calliphoridae larvae on a corpse are useful evidence in legal investigations for the estimation of exact death time and time duration after death; post mortem interval. However many factors, such as temperature, tissue type and contamination of drugs and toxins, effect larval development of blow fly larvae and consequently theestimation of post mortem interval. The present study examined the larval growth rate of a forensically important blow fly species, Lucilia sericata Meigen 1826 in different concentrations (0,12; 0,25; 0,50; 1 and 2 μg/g of toxic heavy metal Thallium under controlled laboratory conditions. Body length and weight, death ratio of larvae and pupa between experimental and control groups were compared. Results demonstrated that the development rate of larvae between uncontaminated and contaminated diets varies significantly. In short, they molted later, reached maximum length more slowly and sometimesproduced significantly smaller pupae in contaminated food source. These results emphasized that the importance of determining the contamination rate of toxins in tissue for the forensic entomologist,while using development rates from standard curves based on larvae fed non-contaminated mediums.

  19. Three-dimensional analysis of third molar development to estimate age of majority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez-Ruiz, Ana Belén; Treviño-Tijerina, María Concepción; González-Herrera, Lucas; Sánchez, Belén; González-Ramírez, Amanda Rocío; Valenzuela, Aurora

    2017-09-01

    Third molars are one of the few biological markers available for age estimation in undocumented juveniles close the legal age of majority, assuming an age of 18years as the most frequent legal demarcation between child and adult status. To obtain more accurate visualization and evaluation of third molar mineralization patterns from computed tomography images, a new software application, DentaVol©, was developed. Third molar mineralization according to qualitative (Demirjian's maturational stage) and quantitative parameters (third molar volume) of dental development was assessed in multi-slice helical computed tomography images of both maxillary arches displayed by DentaVol© from 135 individuals (62 females and 73 males) aged between 14 and 23years. Intra- and inter-observer agreement values were remarkably high for both evaluation procedures and for all third molars. A linear correlation between third molar mineralization and chronological age was found, with third molar maturity occurring earlier in males than in females. Assessment of dental development with both procedures, by using DentaVol© software, can be considered a good indicator of age of majority (18years or older) in all third molars. Our results indicated that virtual computed tomography imaging can be considered a valid alternative to orthopantomography for evaluations of third molar mineralization, and therefore a complementary tool for determining the age of majority. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. An automated technique to stage lower third molar development on panoramic radiographs for age estimation: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, J; Radesh, P; Vandermeulen, D; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    Automated methods to evaluate growth of hand and wrist bones on radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging have been developed. They can be applied to estimate age in children and subadults. Automated methods require the software to (1) recognise the region of interest in the image(s), (2) evaluate the degree of development and (3) correlate this to the age of the subject based on a reference population. For age estimation based on third molars an automated method for step (1) has been presented for 3D magnetic resonance imaging and is currently being optimised (Unterpirker et al. 2015). To develop an automated method for step (2) based on lower third molars on panoramic radiographs. A modified Demirjian staging technique including ten developmental stages was developed. Twenty panoramic radiographs per stage per gender were retrospectively selected for FDI element 38. Two observers decided in consensus about the stages. When necessary, a third observer acted as a referee to establish the reference stage for the considered third molar. This set of radiographs was used as training data for machine learning algorithms for automated staging. First, image contrast settings were optimised to evaluate the third molar of interest and a rectangular bounding box was placed around it in a standardised way using Adobe Photoshop CC 2017 software. This bounding box indicated the region of interest for the next step. Second, several machine learning algorithms available in MATLAB R2017a software were applied for automated stage recognition. Third, the classification performance was evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation scenario, using different validation metrics (accuracy, Rank-N recognition rate, mean absolute difference, linear kappa coefficient). Transfer Learning as a type of Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Network approach outperformed all other tested approaches. Mean accuracy equalled 0.51, mean absolute difference was 0.6 stages and mean linearly weighted kappa was

  1. Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) pupae: a timeline of external morphological development and a new age and PMI estimation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Katherine; Thorne, Alan; Harvey, Michelle

    2015-07-01

    The minimum postmortem interval (PMI(min)) is commonly estimated using calliphorid larvae, for which there are established age estimation methods based on morphological and development data. Despite the increased duration and sedentary nature of the pupal stage of the blowfly, morphological age estimation methods are poorly documented and infrequently used for PMI determination. The aim of this study was to develop a timeline of metamorphosis, focusing on the development of external morphology (within the puparium), to provide a means of age and PMI estimation for Calliphora vicina (Rob-Desvoidy) pupae. Under controlled conditions, 1,494 pupae were reared and sampled at regular time intervals. After puparium removal, observations of 23 external metamorphic developments were correlated to age in accumulated degree hours (ADH). Two age estimation methods were developed based on (1) the combination of possible age ranges observed for each characteristic and (2) regression analyses to generate age estimation equations employing all 23 characteristics observed and a subset of ten characteristics most significantly correlated with age. Blind sample analysis indicated that, using the combination of both methods, pupal age could be estimated to within ±500 ADH with 95% reliability.

  2. Near infrared spectroscopy to estimate the temperature reached on burned soils: strategies to develop robust models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, César; Pedrosa, Elisabete T.; Pérez-Bejarano, Andrea; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2014-05-01

    The temperature reached on soils is an important parameter needed to describe the wildfire effects. However, the methods for measure the temperature reached on burned soils have been poorly developed. Recently, the use of the near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been pointed as a valuable tool for this purpose. The NIR spectrum of a soil sample contains information of the organic matter (quantity and quality), clay (quantity and quality), minerals (such as carbonates and iron oxides) and water contents. Some of these components are modified by the heat, and each temperature causes a group of changes, leaving a typical fingerprint on the NIR spectrum. This technique needs the use of a model (or calibration) where the changes in the NIR spectra are related with the temperature reached. For the development of the model, several aliquots are heated at known temperatures, and used as standards in the calibration set. This model offers the possibility to make estimations of the temperature reached on a burned sample from its NIR spectrum. However, the estimation of the temperature reached using NIR spectroscopy is due to changes in several components, and cannot be attributed to changes in a unique soil component. Thus, we can estimate the temperature reached by the interaction between temperature and the thermo-sensible soil components. In addition, we cannot expect the uniform distribution of these components, even at small scale. Consequently, the proportion of these soil components can vary spatially across the site. This variation will be present in the samples used to construct the model and also in the samples affected by the wildfire. Therefore, the strategies followed to develop robust models should be focused to manage this expected variation. In this work we compared the prediction accuracy of models constructed with different approaches. These approaches were designed to provide insights about how to distribute the efforts needed for the development of robust

  3. Lift/cruise fan V/STOL technology aircraft design definition study. Volume 3: Development program and budgetary estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrien, W. J.

    1976-01-01

    The aircraft development program, budgetary estimates in CY 1976 dollars, and cost reduction program variants are presented. Detailed cost matrices are also provided for the mechanical transmission system, turbotip transmission system, and the thrust vector hoods and yaw doors.

  4. Co-operation of the CMEA member countries in the developing power reactors of various types, including some aspects of their nuclear fuel cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbur, I.; Barchenkov, A.; Molnar, L; Panasenkov, A.; Tolpygo, V.; Hake, V.; Shcherbinin, B.

    1977-01-01

    The report gives an account of the problems of projected development of atomic power and evaluates its role in the fuel and power complex and long-range development of interconnected power systems of the CMEA member countries. The report emphasizes the importance of scientific and technical co-operation in the creation of power reactors on thermal and fast neutrons with 1000-1500 MW unit electric capacity as well as in the elaboration of nuclear plants for heating services. It notes the positive experience of the International scientific and research group of scientists of the CMEA member countries carrying out reactor-physical studies on the critical assembly and its contribution to the elaboration of power reactors. The report contains basic conclusions from the development forecast for nuclear power of the CMEA member countries up to 1990 including forecasting methodology; role of nuclear power plants in saving natural and enriched uranium for a projected period; impact of nuclear power development rates on its structure (thermal and fast reactor ratio); relation between the beginning of mass commissioning of nuclear power plants with fast reactors and the integral demand for nuclear fuel; scale of required capacities of fuel cycle services; time dependence of fuel cycle on nuclear fuel requirements. It examines the problems and lists the results of scientific and technical co-operation of the CMEA member countries in the field of fuel cycle, including the transport of spent nuclear fuel, its recovery, reprocessing and radioactive waste disposal. Particular questions of co-operation of the CMEA member countries to secure radiation safety of nuclear power plants and environmental protection are analyzed. The report notes the role of international economic associations - ''Interatomenergo'' and ''Interatominstrument'' - in the accelerated development of nuclear power on the basis of cooperation and specialization in the manufacture of equipment for nuclear power

  5. Development and validation of a noncontact spectroscopic device for hemoglobin estimation at point-of-care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Probir Kumar; Pal, Sanchari; Polley, Nabarun; Aich, Rajarshi; Adhikari, Aniruddha; Halder, Animesh; Chakrabarti, Subhananda; Chakrabarti, Prantar; Pal, Samir Kumar

    2017-05-01

    Anemia severely and adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. Measuring hemoglobin with the minimal involvement of human and financial resources has always been challenging. We describe a translational spectroscopic technique for noncontact hemoglobin measurement at low-resource point-of-care settings in human subjects, independent of their skin color, age, and sex, by measuring the optical spectrum of the blood flowing in the vascular bed of the bulbar conjunctiva. We developed software on the LabVIEW platform for automatic data acquisition and interpretation by nonexperts. The device is calibrated by comparing the differential absorbance of light of wavelength 576 and 600 nm with the clinical hemoglobin level of the subject. Our proposed method is consistent with the results obtained using the current gold standard, the automated hematology analyzer. The proposed noncontact optical device for hemoglobin estimation is highly efficient, inexpensive, feasible, and extremely useful in low-resource point-of-care settings. The device output correlates with the different degrees of anemia with absolute and trending accuracy similar to those of widely used invasive methods. Moreover, the device can instantaneously transmit the generated report to a medical expert through e-mail, text messaging, or mobile apps.

  6. Estimation of total Effort and Effort Elapsed in Each Step of Software Development Using Optimal Bayesian Belief Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Zare Baghiabad

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Accuracy in estimating the needed effort for software development caused software effort estimation to be a challenging issue. Beside estimation of total effort, determining the effort elapsed in each software development step is very important because any mistakes in enterprise resource planning can lead to project failure. In this paper, a Bayesian belief network was proposed based on effective components and software development process. In this model, the feedback loops are considered between development steps provided that the return rates are different for each project. Different return rates help us determine the percentages of the elapsed effort in each software development step, distinctively. Moreover, the error measurement resulted from optimized effort estimation and the optimal coefficients to modify the model are sought. The results of the comparison between the proposed model and other models showed that the model has the capability to highly accurately estimate the total effort (with the marginal error of about 0.114 and to estimate the effort elapsed in each software development step.

  7. Use of an activated beta-catenin to identify Wnt pathway target genes in caenorhabditis elegans, including a subset of collagen genes expressed in late larval development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Belinda M; Abete-Luzi, Patricia; Krause, Michael W; Eisenmann, David M

    2014-04-16

    The Wnt signaling pathway plays a fundamental role during metazoan development, where it regulates diverse processes, including cell fate specification, cell migration, and stem cell renewal. Activation of the beta-catenin-dependent/canonical Wnt pathway up-regulates expression of Wnt target genes to mediate a cellular response. In the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, a canonical Wnt signaling pathway regulates several processes during larval development; however, few target genes of this pathway have been identified. To address this deficit, we used a novel approach of conditionally activated Wnt signaling during a defined stage of larval life by overexpressing an activated beta-catenin protein, then used microarray analysis to identify genes showing altered expression compared with control animals. We identified 166 differentially expressed genes, of which 104 were up-regulated. A subset of the up-regulated genes was shown to have altered expression in mutants with decreased or increased Wnt signaling; we consider these genes to be bona fide C. elegans Wnt pathway targets. Among these was a group of six genes, including the cuticular collagen genes, bli-1 col-38, col-49, and col-71. These genes show a peak of expression in the mid L4 stage during normal development, suggesting a role in adult cuticle formation. Consistent with this finding, reduction of function for several of the genes causes phenotypes suggestive of defects in cuticle function or integrity. Therefore, this work has identified a large number of putative Wnt pathway target genes during larval life, including a small subset of Wnt-regulated collagen genes that may function in synthesis of the adult cuticle.

  8. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and development of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients included in the Spanish ABPM registry: the CARDIORISC Event study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Sierra, Alejandro; Banegas, José R; Segura, Julián; Gorostidi, Manuel; Ruilope, Luis M

    2012-04-01

    Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is superior to conventional BP measurement in predicting outcome, with baseline 24-h, daytime and night-time absolute values, as well as relative nocturnal decline, as powerful determinants of prognosis. We aimed to evaluate ABPM estimates on the appearance of cardiovascular events and mortality in a cohort of high-risk treated hypertensive patients. A total of 2115 treated hypertensive patients with high or very high added risk were evaluated by means of office and 24-h ABPM. Cardiovascular events and mortality were assessed after a median follow-up of 4 years. Two hundred and sixty-eight patients (12.7%) experienced a primary event (nonfatal coronary or cerebrovascular event, heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death) and 114 died (45 from cardiovascular causes). In a multiple Cox regression model, and after adjusting for baseline cardiovascular risk and office BP, night-time SBP predicted cardiovascular events [hazard ratio for each SD increase: 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.59]. Values above 130 mmHg increased the risk by 52% in comparison to values less than 115 mmHg. In addition to clinical determinants of cardiovascular risk and conventional BP, ABPM performed during treatment adds prognostic significance on the development of cardiovascular events in high-risk hypertensive patients. Among different ABPM-derived values, night-time SBP is the most potent predictor of outcome.

  9. Developing in situ non-destructive estimates of crop biomass to address issues of scale in remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Michael T.; Thenkabail, Prasad S.

    2015-01-01

    Ground-based estimates of aboveground wet (fresh) biomass (AWB) are an important input for crop growth models. In this study, we developed empirical equations of AWB for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, by combining several in situ non-spectral and spectral predictors. The non-spectral predictors included: crop height (H), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), leaf area index (LAI), and fraction of vegetation cover (FVC). The spectral predictors included 196 hyperspectral narrowbands (HNBs) from 350 to 2500 nm. The models for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa included H and HNBs in the near infrared (NIR); H, FAPAR, and HNBs in the NIR; H and HNBs in the visible and NIR; and FVC and HNBs in the visible; respectively. In each case, the non-spectral predictors were the most important, while the HNBs explained additional and statistically significant predictors, but with lower variance. The final models selected for validation yielded an R2 of 0.84, 0.59, 0.91, and 0.86 for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, which when compared to models using HNBs alone from a previous study using the same spectral data, explained an additional 12%, 29%, 14%, and 6% in AWB variance. These integrated models will be used in an up-coming study to extrapolate AWB over 60 × 60 m transects to evaluate spaceborne multispectral broad bands and hyperspectral narrowbands.

  10. Developing in situ Non-Destructive Estimates of Crop Biomass to Address Issues of Scale in Remote Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Marshall

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Ground-based estimates of aboveground wet (fresh biomass (AWB are an important input for crop growth models. In this study, we developed empirical equations of AWB for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, by combining several in situ non-spectral and spectral predictors. The non-spectral predictors included: crop height (H, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR, leaf area index (LAI, and fraction of vegetation cover (FVC. The spectral predictors included 196 hyperspectral narrowbands (HNBs from 350 to 2500 nm. The models for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa included H and HNBs in the near infrared (NIR; H, FAPAR, and HNBs in the NIR; H and HNBs in the visible and NIR; and FVC and HNBs in the visible; respectively. In each case, the non-spectral predictors were the most important, while the HNBs explained additional and statistically significant predictors, but with lower variance. The final models selected for validation yielded an R2 of 0.84, 0.59, 0.91, and 0.86 for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, which when compared to models using HNBs alone from a previous study using the same spectral data, explained an additional 12%, 29%, 14%, and 6% in AWB variance. These integrated models will be used in an up-coming study to extrapolate AWB over 60 × 60 m transects to evaluate spaceborne multispectral broad bands and hyperspectral narrowbands.

  11. Development and Validation of a Prediction Model to Estimate Individual Risk of Pancreatic Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ami; Woo, Sang Myung; Joo, Jungnam; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Lee, Woo Jin; Park, Sang-Jae; Nam, Byung-Ho

    2016-01-01

    There is no reliable screening tool to identify people with high risk of developing pancreatic cancer even though pancreatic cancer represents the fifth-leading cause of cancer-related death in Korea. The goal of this study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model that can be used to screen for asymptomatic pancreatic cancer in Korean men and women. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed using the Cox proportional hazards model based on an 8-year follow-up of a cohort study of 1,289,933 men and 557,701 women in Korea who had biennial examinations in 1996-1997. The performance of the models was evaluated with respect to their discrimination and calibration ability based on the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow type χ2 statistic. A total of 1,634 (0.13%) men and 561 (0.10%) women were newly diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Age, height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and age at smoking initiation were included in the risk prediction model for men. Height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and drinking habit were included in the risk prediction model for women. Smoking was the most significant risk factor for developing pancreatic cancer in both men and women. The risk prediction model exhibited good discrimination and calibration ability, and in external validation it had excellent prediction ability. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed and validated for the first time. The prediction models will be a useful tool for detecting high-risk individuals who may benefit from increased surveillance for pancreatic cancer.

  12. Estimating energy impacts of residential and commercial building development. A manual for the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-02-22

    This energy-impact manual presents information on energy implications of new building design and operation, providing a reasonably accurate means of assessing the total energy impact of new construction in the commercial and residential sectors. While developed specifically for the states of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, much of the data used are national averages; the procedures described are applicable to other regions of the nation, with appropriate adjustments for climatic differences. The manual is organized into three parts, each covering one aspect of the energy impacts of building development. Part I addresses the energy impact of erecting the building(s). This includes the energy cost of grading and excavating and other site preparation. It also takes into account the energy embodied in the fabrication of materials used in building construction, as well as the energy cost of transporting materials to the site and assembling them. Part II focuses on the end use of energy during normal building operation, i.e., the energy consumed for space heating, cooling, lighting, water heating, etc. A simplified calculation sequence is provided which allows the user to estimate the consumption of most combinations of building orientation, characteristics, and operating conditions. Part III examines the relationship of land use to energy consumption, principally the transportation energy impact of various land-development patterns, the embodied energy impacts of infrastructure requirements, and the impacts of various orientation and siting schemes. (MCW)

  13. The South Wilmington Area remedial cost estimating methodology (RCEM) -- A planning tool and reality check for brownfield development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yancheski, T.B.; Swanson, J.E.

    1996-01-01

    The South Wilmington Area (SWA), which is comprised of 200 acres of multi-use urban lowlands adjacent to the Christina River, is a brownfields area that has been targeted for redevelopment/restoration as part of a major waterfront revitalization project for the City of Wilmington, Delaware. The vision for this riverfront development, which is being promoted by a state-funded development corporation, includes plans for a new harbor, convention and entertainment facilities, upscale residences, an urban wildlife refuge, and the restoration of the Christina River. However, the environmental quality of the SWA has been seriously impacted by an assortment of historic and current heavy industrial land-uses since the late 1800's, and extensive environmental cleanup of this area will be required as part of any redevelopment plan. Given that the environmental cleanup cost will be a major factor in determining the overall economic feasibility of brownfield development in the SWA, a reliable means of estimating potential preliminary remedial costs, without the expense of costly investigative and engineering studies, was needed to assist with this redevelopment initiative. The primary chemicals-of-concern (COCs) area-wide are lead and petroleum compounds, however, there are hot-spot occurrences of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), PCBs, and other heavy metals such as arsenic and mercury

  14. Developing historical food production and consumption data for 131I dose estimates: The Hanford experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.M.; Marsh, T.L.; Deonigi, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes the methods used to reconstruct the movement of commercial foods in and through the study area of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project. The most dose-relevant radionuclide released from Hanford separations plants was 131 I via the atmospheric pathway. As a result of atmospheric deposition of 131 I, commercial food supplies may have been contaminated. Because of the half-life of 131 I is relatively short, foods consumed soon after production, such as milk and produce, presented the highest risk. For that reason, this paper deals primarily with the reconstruction of milk and produce production, marketing, and consumption from 1945-1951, the period with the highest known 131 I releases. The reconstructed food production and consumption information was used as input to radiation dose estimates for representative individuals and as default values for real individuals who may not remember where they obtained food or how much they consumed during that period. Specific methods for tracing the movement of commercial milk and produce back from the point of human consumption, through commercial markets, to original production are presented. Results include the characteristics of food consumption exhibited by representative individuals, examples of commercial milk and produce market structures, and a review of commercial milk production and processing practices from 1945-1951

  15. Development of a Greek solar map based on solar model estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambezidis, H. D.; Psiloglou, B. E.; Kavadias, K. A.; Paliatsos, A. G.; Bartzokas, A.

    2016-05-01

    The realization of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) for power generation as the only environmentally friendly solution, moved solar systems to the forefront of the energy market in the last decade. The capacity of the solar power doubles almost every two years in many European countries, including Greece. This rise has brought the need for reliable predictions of meteorological data that can easily be utilized for proper RES-site allocation. The absence of solar measurements has, therefore, raised the demand for deploying a suitable model in order to create a solar map. The generation of a solar map for Greece, could provide solid foundations on the prediction of the energy production of a solar power plant that is installed in the area, by providing an estimation of the solar energy acquired at each longitude and latitude of the map. In the present work, the well-known Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM), a broadband solar radiation model, is engaged. This model utilizes common meteorological data, such as air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure and sunshine duration, in order to calculate solar radiation through MRM for areas where such data are not available. Hourly values of the above meteorological parameters are acquired from 39 meteorological stations, evenly dispersed around Greece; hourly values of solar radiation are calculated from MRM. Then, by using an integrated spatial interpolation method, a Greek solar energy map is generated, providing annual solar energy values all over Greece.

  16. Development of a comprehensive survey of sexuality issues including a self-report version of the International Spinal Cord Injury sexual function basic data sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, P W; Currie, K E

    2016-08-01

    Questionnaire development, validation and completion. Develop comprehensive survey of sexuality issues including validated self-report versions of the International Spinal Cord Injury male sexual function and female sexual and reproductive function basic data sets (SR-iSCI-sexual function). People with spinal cord damage (SCD) living in the community, Australia from August 2013 to June 2014. An iterative process involving rehabilitation medicine clinicians, a nurse specialising in sexuality issues in SCD and people with SCD who developed a comprehensive survey that included the SR-iSCI-sexual function. Participants recruitment through spinal rehabilitation review clinic and community organisations that support people with SCD. Surveys completed by 154 people. Most were male (n=101, 65.6%). Respondents' median age was 50 years (interquartile range (IQR) 38-58), and they were a median of 10 years (IQR 4-20) after the onset of SCD. Sexual problems unrelated to SCD were reported by 12 (8%) respondents, and 114 (n=75.5%) reported sexual problems because of SCD. Orgasms were much less likely (χ(2)=13.1, P=0.006) to be normal in males (n=5, 5%) compared with females (n=11, 22%). Males had significantly worse (χ(2)=26.0, P=0.001) psychogenic genital functioning (normal n=9, 9%) than females (normal n=13, 26%) and worse (χ(2)=10.8, P=0.013) reflex genital functioning. Normal ejaculation was reported in only three (3%) men. Most (n=26, 52%) women reported reduced or absent menstruation pattern since SCD. The SR-iSCI-sexual function provides a useful tool for researchers and clinicians to collect information regarding patient-reported sexual functioning after SCD and to facilitate comparative studies.

  17. Joint U.S./Russian Study on the Development of a Preliminary Cost Estimate of the SAFSTOR Decommissioning Alternative for the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant Unit #1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SM Garrett

    1998-09-28

    The objectives of the two joint Russian/U.S. Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Unit #1 studies were the development of a safe, technically feasible, economically acceptable decom missioning strategy, and the preliminary cost evaluation of the developed strategy. The first study, resulting in the decommissioning strategy, was performed in 1996 and 1997. The preliminary cost estimation study, described in this report, was performed in 1997 and 1998. The decommissioning strategy study included the analyses of three basic RBM.K decommission- ing alternatives, refined for the Leningrad NPP Unit #1. The analyses included analysis of the requirements for the planning and preparation as well as the decommissioning phases.

  18. Development of new method and protocol for cryopreservation related to embryo and oocytes freezing in terms of fertilization rate: A comparative study including review of literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, Mayadhar; Bajpai, Minu; Patnaik, Santosh; Mishra, Pravash; Behera, Priyamadhaba; Dwivedi, Sada Nanda

    2016-01-01

    Cryopreservation is basically related to meritorious thin samples or small clumps of cells that are cooled quickly without loss. Our main objective is to establish and formulate an innovative method and protocol development for cryopreservation as a gold standard for clinical uses in laboratory practice and treatment. The knowledge regarding usefulness of cryopreservation in clinical practice is essential to carry forward the clinical practice and research. We are trying to compare different methods of cryopreservation (in two dozen of cells) at the same time we compare the embryo and oocyte freezing interms of fertilization rate according to the International standard protocol. The combination of cryoprotectants and regimes of rapid cooling and rinsing during warming often allows successful cryopreservation of biological materials, particularly cell suspensions or thin tissue samples. Examples include semen, blood, tissue samples like tumors, histological cross-sections, human eggs and human embryos. Although presently many studies have reported that the children born from frozen embryos or "frosties," show consistently positive results with no increase in birth defects or development abnormalities is quite good enough and similar to our study (50-85%). We ensure that cryopreservation technology provided useful cell survivability, tissue and organ preservation in a proper way. Although it varies according to different laboratory conditions, it is certainly beneficial for patient's treatment and research. Further studies are needed for standardization and development of new protocol.

  19. Development and validation of RP-HPLC method for estimation of eplerenone in spiked human plasma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paraag Gide

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A rapid and simple high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC method with a UV detection (241 nm was developed and validated for estimation of eplerenone from spiked human plasma. The analyte and the internal standard (valdecoxib were extracted with a mixture of dichloromethane and diethyl ether. The chromatographic separation was performed on a HiQSil C-18HS column (250 mm×4.6 mm, 5 μm with a mobile phase consisting of acetonitrile:water (50:50, v/v at flow rate of 1 mL/min. The calibration curve was linear in the range 100–3200 ng/mL and the heteroscedasticity was minimized by using weighted least squares regression with weighting factor 1/X. Keywords: Eplerenone, Liquid–liquid extraction, Weighted regression, HPLC–UV

  20. Development of likelihood estimation method for criticality accidents of mixed oxide fuel fabrication facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamaki, Hitoshi; Yoshida, Kazuo; Kimoto, Tatsuya; Hamaguchi, Yoshikane

    2010-01-01

    A criticality accident in a MOX fuel fabrication facility may occur depending on several parameters, such as mass inventory and plutonium enrichment. MOX handling units in the facility are designed and operated based on the double contingency principle to prevent criticality accidents. Control failures of at least two parameters are needed for the occurrence of criticality accident. To evaluate the probability of such control failures, the criticality conditions of each parameter for a specific handling unit are necessary for accident scenario analysis to be clarified quantitatively with a criticality analysis computer code. In addition to this issue, a computer-based control system for mass inventory is planned to be installed into MOX handling equipment in a commercial MOX fuel fabrication plant. The reliability analysis is another important issue in evaluating the likelihood of control failure caused by software malfunction. A likelihood estimation method for criticality accident has been developed with these issues been taken into consideration. In this paper, an example of analysis with the proposed method and the applicability of the method are also shown through a trial application to a model MOX fabrication facility. (author)

  1. Estimate of Alabama argillacea (Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae development with nonlinear models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Medeiros

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate which nonlinear model [Davidson (1942, 1944, Stinner et al. (1974, Sharpe & DeMichele (1977, and Lactin et al. (1995] best describes the relationship between developmental rates of the different instars and stages of Alabama argillacea (Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae, and temperature. A. argillacea larvae were fed with cotton leaves (Gossypium hirsutum L., race latifolium Hutch., cultivar CNPA 7H at constant temperatures of 20, 23, 25, 28, 30, 33, and 35ºC; relative humidity of 60 ± 10%; and photoperiod of 14:10 L:D. Low R² values obtained with Davidson (0.0001 to 0.1179 and Stinner et al. (0.0099 to 0.8296 models indicated a poor fit of their data for A. argillacea. However, high R² values of Sharpe & DeMichele (0.9677 to 0.9997 and Lactin et al. (0.9684 to 0.9997 models indicated a better fit for estimating A. argillacea development.

  2. Development of Web-Based RECESS Model for Estimating Baseflow Using SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwanjae Lee

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater has received increasing attention as an important strategic water resource for adaptation to climate change. In this regard, the separation of baseflow from streamflow and the analysis of recession curves make a significant contribution to integrated river basin management. The United States Geological Survey (USGS RECESS model adopting the master-recession curve (MRC method can enhance the accuracy with which baseflow may be separated from streamflow, compared to other baseflow-separation schemes that are more limited in their ability to reflect various watershed/aquifer characteristics. The RECESS model has been widely used for the analysis of hydrographs, but the applications using RECESS were only available through Microsoft-Disk Operating System (MS-DOS. Thus, this study aims to develop a web-based RECESS model for easy separation of baseflow from streamflow, with easy applications for ungauged regions. RECESS on the web derived the alpha factor, which is a baseflow recession constant in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, and this variable was provided to SWAT as the input. The results showed that the alpha factor estimated from the web-based RECESS model improved the predictions of streamflow and recession. Furthermore, these findings showed that the baseflow characteristics of the ungauged watersheds were influenced by the land use and slope angle of watersheds, as well as by precipitation and streamflow.

  3. Estimation of photovoltaic systems for rural development: a case study of village near Quetta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasir, S.M.; Raza, S.M.; Hyder, S.

    1994-01-01

    The energy needs in Pakistan are rising in all sectors whereas the supplies seem to be still heavily dependent on oil and electricity generation from WAPDA (Water and Power Development Authority). It is estimated that there are more than 100 villages having population more than 500. These villages are remotely scattered and are away from the industrial belt. It is unlikely to electrify all these villages in the near future. It is difficult to reach them with fossil fuels, particularly oil in quantities they need. In this context, solar and wind power may offer a viable solution. Increasing human and financial commitment would enable the societies to take advantage of this new technology. Considering the demand and supply infrastructure economy, social and cultural set up of the rural communities where a large number of people live must be considered. A case study was made of a village (Killi Paind Khan) near Quetta. The results show that the photovoltaic power system (PPS) is quite attractive for a small community for their lighting and other household appliances. (author)

  4. Estimating the welfare loss to households from natural disasters in developing countries: a contingent valuation study of flooding in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navrud, Ståle; Tuan, Tran Huu; Tinh, Bui Duc

    2012-01-01

    Background Natural disasters have severe impacts on the health and well-being of affected households. However, we find evidence that official damage cost assessments for floods and other natural disasters in Vietnam, where households have little or no insurance, clearly underestimate the total economic damage costs of these events as they do not include the welfare loss from mortality, morbidity and well-being experienced by the households affected by the floods. This should send a message to the local communities and national authorities that higher investments in flood alleviation, reduction and adaptive measures can be justified since the social benefits of these measures in terms of avoided damage costs are higher than previously thought. Methods We pioneer the use of the contingent valuation (CV) approach of willingness-to-contribute (WTC) labour to a flood prevention program, as a measure of the welfare loss experienced by household due to a flooding event. In a face-to-face household survey of 706 households in the Quang Nam province in Central Vietnam, we applied this approach together with reported direct physical damage in order to shed light of the welfare loss experienced by the households. We asked about households’ WTC labour and multiplied their WTC person-days of labour by an estimate for their opportunity cost of time in order to estimate the welfare loss to households from the 2007 floods. Results The results showed that this contingent valuation (CV) approach of asking about willingness-to-pay in-kind avoided the main problems associated with applying CV in developing countries. Conclusion Thus, the CV approach of WTC labour instead of money is promising in terms of capturing the total welfare loss of natural disasters, and promising in terms of further application in other developing countries and for other types of natural disasters. PMID:22761603

  5. Development of Unavailability Estimation Method Considering Various Operating States of Dynamic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Seung Ki; Kang, Hyun Gook; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2011-01-01

    A dynamic system can be defined as a system which has a state at any given time which can be represented by a point in an appropriate state space. In order to analyze the dynamic systems, various failure mechanisms with time requirements such as the failure orders of sub-components and the changes of system states with time need to be modeled and quantitatively estimated. Since the conventional static fault tree analysis has imitations when applied to the dynamic systems, two types of dynamic fault tree methods have been developed. Dugan et al. proposed four dynamic gates to handle failure mechanisms composed of sequence-dependent events and Cepin and Mavko proposed the use of house events to handle failure mechanisms of dynamic systems which have various operating states with time. However, modeling a fault tree from a complex system is a cumbersome task even for the experts who is familiar to it, and demands a great amount of attention and caution to avoid errors. In order to model complex systems more conveniently from system block diagrams compared to the fault tree, a reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) was developed by introduction of general gates to a conventional reliability graph. The RGGG is an easy-to-modeling method as powerful as fault tree. It was also improved to analyze the dynamic failure mechanisms composed of sequence-dependent events with the addition of dynamic nodes. In this paper, unavailability assessment method for dynamic systems which have various operating states is proposed using the RGGG method. To achieve this, a novel concept of reliability matrix for the RGGG is introduced and Bayesian Networks are used for the quantification

  6. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priyadharshini, K Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B; Mohanbabu, V; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-05-01

    To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A-H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization.

  7. Utilizing Healthcare Developments, Demographic Data with Statistical Techniques to Estimate the Diarrhoea Prevalence in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Shweta; Vatsalya, Vatsalya; Arora, Ashoo; Arora, Kashmiri L; Karch, Robert

    2012-03-22

    Diarrhoea is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in developing countries in Africa and South Asia such as India. Prevalence of diarrheal diseases in those countries is higher than developed western world and largely has been associated with socio-economic and sanitary conditions. However, present available data has not been sufficiently evaluated to study the role of other factors like healthcare development, population density, sex and regional influence on diarrheal prevalence pattern. Study was performed to understand the relationship of diarrheal prevalence with specific measures namely; healthcare services development, demographics, population density, socio-economic conditions, sex, and regional prevalence patterns in India. Data from Annual national health reports and other epidemiological studies were included and statistically analyzed. Our results demonstrate significant correlation of the disease prevalence pattern with certain measures like healthcare centers, population growth rate, sex and region-specific morbidity. Available information on sanitation like water supply and toilet availability and socioeconomic conditions like poverty and literacy measures could only be associated as trends of significance. This study can be valuable for improvisation of appropriate strategies focused on important measures like healthcare resources, population growth and regional significances to evaluate prevalence patterns and management of the diarrhoea locally and globally.

  8. Saskatchewan resources. [including uranium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-09-01

    The production of chemicals and minerals for the chemical industry in Saskatchewan are featured, with some discussion of resource taxation. The commodities mentioned include potash, fatty amines, uranium, heavy oil, sodium sulfate, chlorine, sodium hydroxide, sodium chlorate and bentonite. Following the successful outcome of the Cluff Lake inquiry, the uranium industry is booming. Some developments and production figures for Gulf Minerals, Amok, Cenex and Eldorado are mentioned.

  9. Valuing and timing R and D using a real options pricing framework; including an application to the development of Lunar Helium-3 fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, S.H.

    1992-01-01

    This dissertation uses the real options framework to study the valuation and optimal investment policies for R and D projects. The models developed integrate and extend the literature by taking into account the unique characteristics of such projects including uncertain investment in R and D, time-to-build, and multiple investment opportunities. The models were developed to examine the optimal R and D investment policy for the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project but have general applicability. Models are development which model R and D investment as an information gathering process where R and D investment remaining changes as investment is expended. The value of the project increased as the variance of required investment increases. An extension of this model combines a stochastic benefit with stochastic investment. Both the value of the R and D project and the region prescribing continued investment increased. The policy implications are significant: When uncertainty of R and D investment is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment in R and D will result; the existence of uncertainty in R and D investment will cause R and D projects to experience larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment. The model combining stochastic investment with the stochastic benefit is applied to the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project. Investment in fusion should continue at the maximum level of $1 billion annually given current levels of costs of alternative fuels and the perceived uncertainty of R and D investment in the project. A model is developed to examine the valuation and optimal split of funding between R and D projects when there are two competing new technologies. Without interaction between research expenditures and benefits across technologies, the optimal investment strategy is to invest in one or the other technology or neither. The multiple technology model is applied to analyze competing R and D projects, namely

  10. Accuracy of dental development for estimating the pubertal growth spurt in comparison to skeletal development: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittencourt, MarcosAlan Vieira; Cericato, GrazielaOro; Franco, Ademir; Girão, RafaelaSilva; Lima, Anderson Paulo Barbosa; Paranhos, LuizRenato

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to search for scientific evidence concerning the accuracy of dental development for estimating the pubertal growth spurt. It was conducted according to the statements of PRISMA. An electronic search was performed in six databases, including the grey literature. The PICOS strategy was used to define the eligibility criteria and only observational studies were selected. Out of 1,416 identified citations, 10 articles fulfilled the criteria and were included in this systematic review. The association between dental development and skeletal maturity was considered strong in seven studies, and moderate in two, although the association with the pubertal growth spurt had been verified in only four articles. According to half of the studies, the tooth that provided the greater association with the ossification centres was the lower canine. The meta-analysis performed also indicated a positive association, being stronger in females [0.725 (0.649-0.808)]. However, when the method used for dental evaluation was considered, it was possible to verify greater correlation coefficients for Nolla [0.736 (0.666-0.814)] than for Demirjian [0.631 (0.450-0.884)], at the boys sample. The heterogeneity test reached high values (Q = 51.00), suggesting a potential bias within the studies. Most of individual studies suggested a strong correlation between dental development and skeletal maturation, although the association with the peakof pubertal growth spurtwas clearly cited only in some of them. However, due to the high heterogeneity found among the studies included in this meta-analysis, a pragmatic recommendation about the use of dental stages is not possible.

  11. Development of a faulty reactivity detection system applying a digital H∞ estimator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Katsuo; Suzudo, Tomoaki; Nabeshima, Kunihiko

    2004-01-01

    This paper concerns an application of digital optimal H ∞ estimator to the detection of faulty reactivity in real-time. The detection system, fundamentally based on the reactivity balance method, is composed of three modules, i.e. the net reactivity estimator, the feedback reactivity estimator and the reactivity balance circuit. H ∞ optimal filters are used for these two reactivity estimators, and the nonlinear neutronics are taken into consideration especially for the design of the net reactivity estimator. A series of performance test of the detection system are conducted by using numerical simulations of reactor dynamics with the insertion of a faulty reactivity for an experimental fast breeder reactor JOYO. The system detects the typical artificial reactivity insertions during a few seconds with no stationary offset and the accuracy of 0.1 cent, and is satisfactory for its practical use. (author)

  12. A Study on the quantification of hydration and the strength development mechanism of cementitious materials including amorphous phases by using XRD/Rietveld method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Kazuo; Hoshino, Seiichi; Hirao, Hiroshi; Yamashita, Hiroki

    2008-01-01

    X-ray diffraction (XRD)/Rietveld method was applied to measure the phase composition of cement. The quantative analysis concerning the progress of hydration was accomplished in an error of about the maximum 2-3% in spite of including amorphous materials such as blast furnace slag, fly ash, silica fume and C-S-H. The influence of the compressive strength on the lime stone fine powder mixture material was studied from the hydration analysis by Rietveld method. The two stages were observed in the strength development mechanism of cement; the hydration promotion of C 3 S in the early stage and the filling of cavities by carbonate hydrate for the longer term. It is useful to use various mixture materials for the formation of the resource recycling society and the durability improvement of concrete. (author)

  13. The development of small, cabled, real-time video based observation systems for near shore coastal marine science including three examples and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatcher, Gerry; Okuda, Craig

    2016-01-01

    The effects of climate change on the near shore coastal environment including ocean acidification, accelerated erosion, destruction of coral reefs, and damage to marine habitat have highlighted the need for improved equipment to study, monitor, and evaluate these changes [1]. This is especially true where areas of study are remote, large, or beyond depths easily accessible to divers. To this end, we have developed three examples of low cost and easily deployable real-time ocean observation platforms. We followed a scalable design approach adding complexity and capability as familiarity and experience were gained with system components saving both time and money by reducing design mistakes. The purpose of this paper is to provide information for the researcher, technician, or engineer who finds themselves in need of creating or acquiring similar platforms.

  14. Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocco, M.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m -2 d -1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation [pt

  15. Biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal in membrane bioreactors: model development and parameter estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosenza, Alida; Mannina, Giorgio; Neumann, Marc B; Viviani, Gaspare; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

    2013-04-01

    Membrane bioreactors (MBR) are being increasingly used for wastewater treatment. Mathematical modeling of MBR systems plays a key role in order to better explain their characteristics. Several MBR models have been presented in the literature focusing on different aspects: biological models, models which include soluble microbial products (SMP), physical models able to describe the membrane fouling and integrated models which couple the SMP models with the physical models. However, only a few integrated models have been developed which take into account the relationships between membrane fouling and biological processes. With respect to biological phosphorus removal in MBR systems, due to the complexity of the process, practical use of the models is still limited. There is a vast knowledge (and consequently vast amount of data) on nutrient removal for conventional-activated sludge systems but only limited information on phosphorus removal for MBRs. Calibration of these complex integrated models still remains the main bottleneck to their employment. The paper presents an integrated mathematical model able to simultaneously describe biological phosphorus removal, SMP formation/degradation and physical processes which also include the removal of organic matter. The model has been calibrated with data collected in a UCT-MBR pilot plant, located at the Palermo wastewater treatment plant, applying a modified version of a recently developed calibration protocol. The calibrated model provides acceptable correspondence with experimental data and can be considered a useful tool for MBR design and operation.

  16. Two Approaches to Estimating the Effect of Parenting on the Development of Executive Function in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Clancy; Raver, C. Cybele; Berry, Daniel J.

    2014-01-01

    In the current article, we contrast 2 analytical approaches to estimate the relation of parenting to executive function development in a sample of 1,292 children assessed longitudinally between the ages of 36 and 60 months of age. Children were administered a newly developed and validated battery of 6 executive function tasks tapping inhibitory…

  17. Technical meeting on lessons learned with respect to SAT implementation, including development of trainers and use of cost effective training methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The past years have brought some significant changes in the world energy market, where the nuclear power plants and utilities are operating. Part of NPPs is privatised now; the electricity markets are liberalized and become more and more international. Due to the increase of competition, the power production costs are now monitored more closely than before. The opening of electricity markets has led the nuclear power plants to be under the serious economic pressure with a demand for continuous cost reduction. All these require from NPPs to make their personnel training more cost-effective. In addition, based on modern technology, a great amount of new training tools, aids and technologies have been introduced during the last 2-3 years, these new opportunities can be quite useful for training cost optimization. On the basis of experience gained worldwide in the application of the systematic approach to training (SAT), SAT based training is now a broad integrated approach emphasizing not only technical knowledge and skills but also human factor related knowledge, skills and attitudes. In this way, all competency requirements for attaining and maintaining personnel competence and qualification can be met, thus promoting and strengthening quality culture and safety culture, which should be fostered throughout the initial and continuing training programmes. The subject of the present technical meeting was suggested by the members of the Technical Working Group on Training and Qualification of NPP Personnel (TWG-T and Q) and supported by a number of the IAEA meetings on NPP personnel training. The technical Meeting on 'Lessons Learned with Respect to SAT Implementation, Including Development of Trainers and Use of Cost Effective Training Methods' was organized by the IAEA in co-operation with the Tecnatom A.S. and was held from 21 to 24 October 2002 in San Sebastian de los Reyes/ Madrid, Spain. The main objective of the meeting was to provide an international forum for

  18. Development of Estimating Equation of Machine Operational Skill by Utilizing Eye Movement Measurement and Analysis of Stress and Fatigue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Suzuki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For an establishment of a skill evaluation method for human support systems, development of an estimating equation of the machine operational skill is presented. Factors of the eye movement such as frequency, velocity, and moving distance of saccade were computed using the developed eye gaze measurement system, and the eye movement features were determined from these factors. The estimating equation was derived through an outlier test (to eliminate nonstandard data and a principal component analysis (to find dominant components. Using a cooperative carrying task (cc-task simulator, the eye movement and operational data of the machine operators were recorded, and effectiveness of the derived estimating equation was investigated. As a result, it was confirmed that the estimating equation was effective strongly against actual simple skill levels (r=0.56–0.84. In addition, effects of internal condition such as fatigue and stress on the estimating equation were analyzed. Using heart rate (HR and coefficient of variation of R-R interval (Cvrri. Correlation analysis between these biosignal indexes and the estimating equation of operational skill found that the equation reflected effects of stress and fatigue, although the equation could estimate the skill level adequately.

  19. Prediction of preterm birth in multiple pregnancies: development of a multivariable model including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Mheen, Lidewij; Schuit, Ewoud; Lim, Arianne C; Porath, Martina M; Papatsonis, Dimitri; Erwich, Jan J; van Eyck, Jim; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Hummel, Piet; Duvekot, Johannes J; Hasaart, Tom H M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Moons, Karl G M; de Groot, Christianne J M; Bruinse, Hein W; van Pampus, Maria G; Mol, Ben W J

    2014-04-01

    To develop a multivariable prognostic model for the risk of preterm delivery in women with multiple pregnancy that includes cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and other variables. We used data from a previous randomized trial. We assessed the association between maternal and pregnancy characteristics including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and time to delivery using multivariable Cox regression modelling. Performance of the final model was assessed for the outcomes of preterm and very preterm delivery using calibration and discrimination measures. We studied 507 women, of whom 270 (53%) delivered models for preterm and very preterm delivery had a c-index of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.72) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.75), respectively, and showed good calibration. In women with a multiple pregnancy, the risk of preterm delivery can be assessed with a multivariable model incorporating cervical length and other predictors.

  20. Development and Validation of a Calculator for Estimating the Probability of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Febrile Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaikh, Nader; Hoberman, Alejandro; Hum, Stephanie W; Alberty, Anastasia; Muniz, Gysella; Kurs-Lasky, Marcia; Landsittel, Douglas; Shope, Timothy

    2018-06-01

    Accurately estimating the probability of urinary tract infection (UTI) in febrile preverbal children is necessary to appropriately target testing and treatment. To develop and test a calculator (UTICalc) that can first estimate the probability of UTI based on clinical variables and then update that probability based on laboratory results. Review of electronic medical records of febrile children aged 2 to 23 months who were brought to the emergency department of Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. An independent training database comprising 1686 patients brought to the emergency department between January 1, 2007, and April 30, 2013, and a validation database of 384 patients were created. Five multivariable logistic regression models for predicting risk of UTI were trained and tested. The clinical model included only clinical variables; the remaining models incorporated laboratory results. Data analysis was performed between June 18, 2013, and January 12, 2018. Documented temperature of 38°C or higher in children aged 2 months to less than 2 years. With the use of culture-confirmed UTI as the main outcome, cutoffs for high and low UTI risk were identified for each model. The resultant models were incorporated into a calculation tool, UTICalc, which was used to evaluate medical records. A total of 2070 children were included in the study. The training database comprised 1686 children, of whom 1216 (72.1%) were female and 1167 (69.2%) white. The validation database comprised 384 children, of whom 291 (75.8%) were female and 200 (52.1%) white. Compared with the American Academy of Pediatrics algorithm, the clinical model in UTICalc reduced testing by 8.1% (95% CI, 4.2%-12.0%) and decreased the number of UTIs that were missed from 3 cases to none. Compared with empirically treating all children with a leukocyte esterase test result of 1+ or higher, the dipstick model in UTICalc would have reduced the number of treatment delays by 10.6% (95% CI

  1. Development of a TaqMan Array Card for Acute-Febrile-Illness Outbreak Investigation and Surveillance of Emerging Pathogens, Including Ebola Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie; Ochieng, Caroline; Wiersma, Steve; Ströher, Ute; Towner, Jonathan S; Whitmer, Shannon; Nichol, Stuart T; Moore, Christopher C; Kersh, Gilbert J; Kato, Cecilia; Sexton, Christopher; Petersen, Jeannine; Massung, Robert; Hercik, Christine; Crump, John A; Kibiki, Gibson; Maro, Athanasia; Mujaga, Buliga; Gratz, Jean; Jacob, Shevin T; Banura, Patrick; Scheld, W Michael; Juma, Bonventure; Onyango, Clayton O; Montgomery, Joel M; Houpt, Eric; Fields, Barry

    2016-01-01

    Acute febrile illness (AFI) is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, yet an etiologic agent is often not identified. Convalescent-phase serology is impractical, blood culture is slow, and many pathogens are fastidious or impossible to cultivate. We developed a real-time PCR-based TaqMan array card (TAC) that can test six to eight samples within 2.5 h from sample to results and can simultaneously detect 26 AFI-associated organisms, including 15 viruses (chikungunya, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever [CCHF] virus, dengue, Ebola virus, Bundibugyo virus, Sudan virus, hantaviruses [Hantaan and Seoul], hepatitis E, Marburg, Nipah virus, o'nyong-nyong virus, Rift Valley fever virus, West Nile virus, and yellow fever virus), 8 bacteria (Bartonella spp., Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii, Leptospira spp., Rickettsia spp., Salmonella enterica and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, and Yersinia pestis), and 3 protozoa (Leishmania spp., Plasmodium spp., and Trypanosoma brucei). Two extrinsic controls (phocine herpesvirus 1 and bacteriophage MS2) were included to ensure extraction and amplification efficiency. Analytical validation was performed on spiked specimens for linearity, intra-assay precision, interassay precision, limit of detection, and specificity. The performance of the card on clinical specimens was evaluated with 1,050 blood samples by comparison to the individual real-time PCR assays, and the TAC exhibited an overall 88% (278/315; 95% confidence interval [CI], 84% to 92%) sensitivity and a 99% (5,261/5,326, 98% to 99%) specificity. This TaqMan array card can be used in field settings as a rapid screen for outbreak investigation or for the surveillance of pathogens, including Ebola virus. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  2. Estimation of Bouguer Density Precision: Development of Method for Analysis of La Soufriere Volcano Gravity Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendra Gunawan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.17014/ijog.vol3no3.20084The precision of topographic density (Bouguer density estimation by the Nettleton approach is based on a minimum correlation of Bouguer gravity anomaly and topography. The other method, the Parasnis approach, is based on a minimum correlation of Bouguer gravity anomaly and Bouguer correction. The precision of Bouguer density estimates was investigated by both methods on simple 2D syntetic models and under an assumption free-air anomaly consisting of an effect of topography, an effect of intracrustal, and an isostatic compensation. Based on simulation results, Bouguer density estimates were then investigated for a gravity survey of 2005 on La Soufriere Volcano-Guadeloupe area (Antilles Islands. The Bouguer density based on the Parasnis approach is 2.71 g/cm3 for the whole area, except the edifice area where average topography density estimates are 2.21 g/cm3 where Bouguer density estimates from previous gravity survey of 1975 are 2.67 g/cm3. The Bouguer density in La Soufriere Volcano was uncertainly estimated to be 0.1 g/cm3. For the studied area, the density deduced from refraction seismic data is coherent with the recent Bouguer density estimates. New Bouguer anomaly map based on these Bouguer density values allows to a better geological intepretation.    

  3. Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 01: CPQR Technical Quality Control Suite Development including Quality Control Workload Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malkoske, Kyle; Nielsen, Michelle; Brown, Erika; Diamond, Kevin; Frenière, Normand; Grant, John; Pomerleau-Dalcourt, Natalie; Schella, Jason; Schreiner, L. John; Tantot, Laurent; Barajas, Eduardo Villareal; Bissonnette, Jean-Pierre

    2016-01-01

    A close partnership between the Canadian Partnership for Quality Radiotherapy (CPQR) and the Canadian Organization of Medical Physicist’s (COMP) Quality Assurance and Radiation Safety Advisory Committee (QARSAC) has resulted in the development of a suite of Technical Quality Control (TQC) Guidelines for radiation treatment equipment, that outline specific performance objectives and criteria that equipment should meet in order to assure an acceptable level of radiation treatment quality. The framework includes consolidation of existing guidelines and/or literature by expert reviewers, structured stages of public review, external field-testing and ratification by COMP. The adopted framework for the development and maintenance of the TQCs ensures the guidelines incorporate input from the medical physics community during development, measures the workload required to perform the QC tests outlined in each TQC, and remain relevant (i.e. “living documents”) through subsequent planned reviews and updates. This presentation will show the Multi-Leaf Linear Accelerator document as an example of how feedback and cross-national work to achieve a robust guidance document. During field-testing, each technology was tested at multiple centres in a variety of clinic environments. As part of the defined feedback, workload data was captured. This lead to average time associated with testing as defined in each TQC document. As a result, for a medium-sized centre comprising 6 linear accelerators and a comprehensive brachytherapy program, we evaluate the physics workload to 1.5 full-time equivalent physicist per year to complete all QC tests listed in this suite.

  4. Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 01: CPQR Technical Quality Control Suite Development including Quality Control Workload Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malkoske, Kyle; Nielsen, Michelle; Brown, Erika; Diamond, Kevin; Frenière, Normand; Grant, John; Pomerleau-Dalcourt, Natalie; Schella, Jason; Schreiner, L. John; Tantot, Laurent; Barajas, Eduardo Villareal; Bissonnette, Jean-Pierre [Royal Victoria Hospital, Trillium Health Partners, CPQR, Juravinski Cancer Centre, CIUSSS MCQ - CHAUR, Cape Breton Health Care Complex, Centre d’oncologie Dr. Léon-Richard / Dr. Léon Richard Oncology Centre, QEII Health Sciences Centre, Cancer Centre of Southeastern Ontario, Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre (Canada)

    2016-08-15

    A close partnership between the Canadian Partnership for Quality Radiotherapy (CPQR) and the Canadian Organization of Medical Physicist’s (COMP) Quality Assurance and Radiation Safety Advisory Committee (QARSAC) has resulted in the development of a suite of Technical Quality Control (TQC) Guidelines for radiation treatment equipment, that outline specific performance objectives and criteria that equipment should meet in order to assure an acceptable level of radiation treatment quality. The framework includes consolidation of existing guidelines and/or literature by expert reviewers, structured stages of public review, external field-testing and ratification by COMP. The adopted framework for the development and maintenance of the TQCs ensures the guidelines incorporate input from the medical physics community during development, measures the workload required to perform the QC tests outlined in each TQC, and remain relevant (i.e. “living documents”) through subsequent planned reviews and updates. This presentation will show the Multi-Leaf Linear Accelerator document as an example of how feedback and cross-national work to achieve a robust guidance document. During field-testing, each technology was tested at multiple centres in a variety of clinic environments. As part of the defined feedback, workload data was captured. This lead to average time associated with testing as defined in each TQC document. As a result, for a medium-sized centre comprising 6 linear accelerators and a comprehensive brachytherapy program, we evaluate the physics workload to 1.5 full-time equivalent physicist per year to complete all QC tests listed in this suite.

  5. Two Approaches to Estimating the Effect of Parenting on the Development of Executive Function in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Clancy; Raver, C. Cybele; Berry, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    In the current article, we contrast 2 analytical approaches to estimate the relation of parenting to executive function development in a sample of 1,292 children assessed longitudinally between the ages of 36 and 60 months of age. Children were administered a newly developed and validated battery of 6 executive function tasks tapping inhibitory control, working memory, and attention shifting. Residualized change analysis indicated that higher quality parenting as indicated by higher scores on widely used measures of parenting at both earlier and later time points predicted more positive gain in executive function at 60 months. Latent change score models in which parenting and executive function over time were held to standards of longitudinal measurement invariance provided additional evidence of the association between change in parenting quality and change in executive function. In these models, cross-lagged paths indicated that in addition to parenting predicting change in executive function, executive function bidirectionally predicted change in parenting quality. Results were robust with the addition of covariates, including child sex, race, maternal education, and household income-to-need. Strengths and drawbacks of the 2 analytic approaches are discussed, and the findings are considered in light of emerging methodological innovations for testing the extent to which executive function is malleable and open to the influence of experience. PMID:23834294

  6. Development of a method to estimate organ doses for pediatric CT examinations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papadakis, Antonios E., E-mail: apapadak@pagni.gr; Perisinakis, Kostas; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, University Hospital of Heraklion, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 1352, Iraklion, Crete 71110 (Greece)

    2016-05-15

    Purpose: To develop a method for estimating doses to primarily exposed organs in pediatric CT by taking into account patient size and automatic tube current modulation (ATCM). Methods: A Monte Carlo CT dosimetry software package, which creates patient-specific voxelized phantoms, accurately simulates CT exposures, and generates dose images depicting the energy imparted on the exposed volume, was used. Routine head, thorax, and abdomen/pelvis CT examinations in 92 pediatric patients, ranging from 1-month to 14-yr-old (49 boys and 43 girls), were simulated on a 64-slice CT scanner. Two sets of simulations were performed in each patient using (i) a fixed tube current (FTC) value over the entire examination length and (ii) the ATCM profile extracted from the DICOM header of the reconstructed images. Normalized to CTDI{sub vol} organ dose was derived for all primary irradiated radiosensitive organs. Normalized dose data were correlated to patient’s water equivalent diameter using log-transformed linear regression analysis. Results: The maximum percent difference in normalized organ dose between FTC and ATCM acquisitions was 10% for eyes in head, 26% for thymus in thorax, and 76% for kidneys in abdomen/pelvis. In most of the organs, the correlation between dose and water equivalent diameter was significantly improved in ATCM compared to FTC acquisitions (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The proposed method employs size specific CTDI{sub vol}-normalized organ dose coefficients for ATCM-activated and FTC acquisitions in pediatric CT. These coefficients are substantially different between ATCM and FTC modes of operation and enable a more accurate assessment of patient-specific organ dose in the clinical setting.

  7. Children's estimates of food portion size: the development and evaluation of three portion size assessment tools for use with children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, E; Matthews, J N S; Lloyd, J; Marshall, L; Mathers, J C; Nelson, M; Barton, K L; Wrieden, W L; Cornelissen, P; Harris, J; Adamson, A J

    2008-01-01

    A number of methods have been developed to assist subjects in providing an estimate of portion size but their application in improving portion size estimation by children has not been investigated systematically. The aim was to develop portion size assessment tools for use with children and to assess the accuracy of children's estimates of portion size using the tools. The tools were food photographs, food models and an interactive portion size assessment system (IPSAS). Children (n 201), aged 4-16 years, were supplied with known quantities of food to eat, in school. Food leftovers were weighed. Children estimated the amount of each food using each tool, 24 h after consuming the food. The age-specific portion sizes represented were based on portion sizes consumed by children in a national survey. Significant differences were found between the accuracy of estimates using the three tools. Children of all ages performed well using the IPSAS and food photographs. The accuracy and precision of estimates made using the food models were poor. For all tools, estimates of the amount of food served were more accurate than estimates of the amount consumed. Issues relating to reporting of foods left over which impact on estimates of the amounts of foods actually consumed require further study. The IPSAS has shown potential for assessment of dietary intake with children. Before practical application in assessment of dietary intake of children the tool would need to be expanded to cover a wider range of foods and to be validated in a 'real-life' situation.

  8. Development of eggs and larvae of Emmelichthys nitidus (Percoidei: Emmelichthyidae) in south-eastern Australia, including a temperature-dependent egg incubation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neira, Francisco J.; Keane, John P.; Lyle, Jeremy M.; Tracey, Sean R.

    2008-08-01

    Reared eggs and field-collected material were employed to describe the development of the pelagic eggs and larvae of Emmelichthys nitidus (Emmelichthyidae), a small (36 cm TL) mid-water schooling species common in shelf waters of temperate Australia. Hydrated oocytes from adults trawled from spawning grounds off eastern Tasmania were fertilized and reared to the yolk-sac larval stage, and the data employed to build a temperature-dependent egg incubation model. Embryogenesis lasted 96, 84 and 54 h at mean temperatures of 13.1, 14.4 and 16.5 °C respectively, and was divided into seven stages based on extent of epiboly until blastopore closure (stages I-III) and embryo growth (stages IV-VII). Eggs (1.00-1.05 mm diameter) are spherical with a smooth chorion, small perivitelline space and prominent, unsegmented yolk with a single, posteriorly-located oil globule (0.18-0.20 mm diameter) that becomes pigmented from stage III. Embryos have two distinct snout melanophores, and a paired melanophore row laterally along the trunk and tail. Morphological identification of eggs collected during surveys in October 2005 and 2006 was validated using quantitative PCR amplification of the mtDNA d-loop gene region unique to E. nitidus, producing an 80-100% agreement across all seven stages. Newly-emerged larvae (1.9-3.3 mm) possess a prominent yolk sac with the posteriorly-located, pigmented oil globule, mouth not yet functional and unpigmented eyes. Notochord flexion occurs between 5 and 8 mm while fins are formed by 12 mm. Larvae examined (3.3-17.4 mm) are lightly pigmented and possess percoid features such as an elongate to moderate body, coiled, triangular-shaped gut, preopercular spines and 24-25 myomeres; two prominent pigment patches opposite each other dorsally and ventrally along the tail are diagnostic. Variability of mean egg ages ( y) by temperature ( t) and stage ( i) was best described by the deterministic stage-to-age model y = 35.911exp[-(0.155 t + 0.262 i)] i2

  9. Development of a Bayesian model to estimate health care outcomes in the severely wounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Stojadinovic

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Alexander Stojadinovic1, John Eberhardt2, Trevor S Brown3, Jason S Hawksworth4, Frederick Gage3, Douglas K Tadaki3, Jonathan A Forsberg5, Thomas A Davis3, Benjamin K Potter5, James R Dunne6, E A Elster31Combat Wound Initiative Program, 4Department of Surgery, Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA; 2DecisionQ Corporation, Washington, DC, USA; 3Regenerative Medicine Department, Combat Casualty Care, Naval Medical Research Center, Silver Spring, MD, USA; 5Integrated Department of Orthopaedics and Rehabilitation, 6Department of Surgery, National Naval Medical Center, Bethesda, MD, USABackground: Graphical probabilistic models have the ability to provide insights as to how clinical factors are conditionally related. These models can be used to help us understand factors influencing health care outcomes and resource utilization, and to estimate morbidity and clinical outcomes in trauma patient populations.Study design: Thirty-two combat casualties with severe extremity injuries enrolled in a prospective observational study were analyzed using step-wise machine-learned Bayesian belief network (BBN and step-wise logistic regression (LR. Models were evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation to calculate area-under-the-curve (AUC from receiver operating characteristics (ROC curves.Results: Our BBN showed important associations between various factors in our data set that could not be developed using standard regression methods. Cross-validated ROC curve analysis showed that our BBN model was a robust representation of our data domain and that LR models trained on these findings were also robust: hospital-acquired infection (AUC: LR, 0.81; BBN, 0.79, intensive care unit length of stay (AUC: LR, 0.97; BBN, 0.81, and wound healing (AUC: LR, 0.91; BBN, 0.72 showed strong AUC.Conclusions: A BBN model can effectively represent clinical outcomes and biomarkers in patients hospitalized after severe wounding, and is confirmed by 10-fold

  10. Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: development of group-contribution+ (GC+) property models and uncertainty analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

    2012-11-26

    The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution(+) (GC(+)) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality of parameter estimation, such as the parameter covariance, the standard errors in predicted properties, and the confidence intervals. For parameter estimation, large data sets of experimentally measured property values of a wide range of chemicals (hydrocarbons, oxygenated chemicals, nitrogenated chemicals, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22 environment-related properties, which include the fathead minnow 96-h LC(50), Daphnia magna 48-h LC(50), oral rat LD(50), aqueous solubility, bioconcentration factor, permissible exposure limit (OSHA-TWA), photochemical oxidation potential, global warming potential, ozone depletion potential, acidification potential, emission to urban air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental rural air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental fresh water (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental seawater (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental natural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), and emission to continental agricultural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) have been modeled and analyzed. The application

  11. Development of the ENVI simulator to estimate Korean SNF flow and its cost - 16060

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Yongsoo; Miller, Ian

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea. A companion paper (Hwang and Miller, 2009) describes a performance assessment model to address the long-term safety of alternative geological disposal options for different waste streams. The model addresses alternative concepts for storage, transportation, and processing of SNF of different types (Candu, PWR), leading up to permanent disposal in geological repositories. It uses the GoldSim software to simulate the logistics of the associated activities, including the associated capital and operating costs. The model's results allow direct comparison of alternative waste management concepts, and predict the sizes and timings of different facilities required. Future versions of the model will also address the uncertainties associated with the different system components in order to provide risk-based assessments. (authors)

  12. Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: Development of group-contribution+ (GC+) models and uncertainty analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hukkerikar, Amol; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this work is to develop group-3 contribution+ (GC+)method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI)) based 15 property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated...... property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality......, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22...

  13. Using Clinical Factors and Mammographic Breast Density to Estimate Breast Cancer Risk: Development and Validation of a New Predictive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tice, Jeffrey A.; Cummings, Steven R.; Smith-Bindman, Rebecca; Ichikawa, Laura; Barlow, William E.; Kerlikowske, Karla

    2009-01-01

    Background Current models for assessing breast cancer risk are complex and do not include breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer that is routinely reported with mammography. Objective To develop and validate an easy-to-use breast cancer risk prediction model that includes breast density. Design Empirical model based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence, and relative hazards from a prospective cohort. Setting Screening mammography sites participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Patients 1 095 484 women undergoing mammography who had no previous diagnosis of breast cancer. Measurements Self-reported age, race or ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, and history of breast biopsy. Community radiologists rated breast density by using 4 Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories. Results During 5.3 years of follow-up, invasive breast cancer was diagnosed in 14 766 women. The breast density model was well calibrated overall (expected–observed ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.06]) and in racial and ethnic subgroups. It had modest discriminatory accuracy (concordance index, 0.66 [CI, 0.65 to 0.67]). Women with low-density mammograms had 5-year risks less than 1.67% unless they had a family history of breast cancer and were older than age 65 years. Limitation The model has only modest ability to discriminate between women who will develop breast cancer and those who will not. Conclusion A breast cancer prediction model that incorporates routinely reported measures of breast density can estimate 5-year risk for invasive breast cancer. Its accuracy needs to be further evaluated in independent populations before it can be recommended for clinical use. PMID:18316752

  14. Development of best estimate auditing code for CANDU thermal hydraulic safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwnag, M.

    2001-04-01

    The main purpose of this study is to develop a thermal hydraulic auditing code for the CANDU reactor, modifying the model of existing PWR auditing tool , i.e. RELAP5/MOD3. This scope of project is a fourth step of the whole project, applying the RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU+ version for the real CANDU plant LOCA Analysis and D2O leakage incident. There are three main models under investigation, i.e. Moody critical flow model, flow regime model of horizontal CANDU bundle, and fuel element heatup model when the stratification occurs, especially when CANDU LOCA is tested. Also, for Wolsung unit 1 D2O leakage incident analysis, the plant behavior is predicited with the newly developed version for the first 1000 seconds after onset of the incident, with the main interest aiming for system pressure, level control system, and thermal hydraulic transient behavior of the secondary system. The model applided for this particular application includes heat transfer model of nuclear fuel assembly, decay heat model, and MOV (Motor Operated Valve) model. Finally, the code maintenance work, mainly correcting the known errors, is presented

  15. ESTIMATING MORAL DEVELOPMENT IN A SAMPLE OF ALTERNATIVE FORMULAS OF PRISON SENTENCED BENEFICIARIES FROM WEST VENEZUELA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS ENRIQUE ZERPA

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available The level of moral development in a sampled of convicts from West Venezuela is presented. The studywas carried out by means of Defining Issues Test (DIT evaluation. The sample includes 50 persons between19 and 55 years old (M = 34,33 y DT = 8,76, out of them 39 were males (average age 33,74,DT=8,24 an 11 were females (average age 35,91, DT=10,67. All of them were beneficiaries of alternativesformulas of their respective sentences such as social work, parole or conditional suspension ofsentences and following the corresponding process or rehabilitation out of prisons. This sample registereda moral principles index of 19,67 and a non-relevant answers index of 12,07 as well as fourthmoral developmental stage of 41,3 which are unusually high. The results suggest that there is not astatistically significant difference in the pattern of moral development depending on sex, age, or institutionfor sentenced fulfillment. However, the unusual high pattern of answers and the inverse correspondence between the duration of sentences and the resulting level of moral principles suggest that thesample behaves in a way, which is different from what is expected in no-out-law samples. Findings andimplications are discused.

  16. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian

    2011-01-01

    of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to generate a set......In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  17. Methods for developing useful estimates of the costs associated with birth defects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Amy P; Canfield, Mark A

    2009-11-01

    Cost estimates for birth defects are useful to policy makers in deciding the best use of resources to prevent these conditions. Much of the effort in this area has focused on spina bifida, in part because cost savings can be estimated from folic acid-preventable cases. However, comprehensive cost-of-illness estimates for this condition may be too outdated, too general, or not applicable to individual states' environments. Using the live birth prevalence for spina bifida in Texas, we applied recent spina bifida cost estimates to approximate total lifetime medical and other costs for an average live birth cohort of spina bifida cases in Texas. In addition, we queried various government programs that provide services for persons with spina bifida to provide program-specific annual costs for this condition. Applying a recently published average lifetime medical cost of $635,000 per case of spina bifida to the average annual birth cohort of 120 Texas cases, an estimated $76 million in direct and indirect medical and other costs will be incurred in Texas over the life span of that cohort. Examples of estimated medical costs for one year are $5 million for infants using actual employer-paid insurance claims data and $6 million combined for children in two public sector programs. Stakeholders and state policy makers may look to state birth defects registries for useful cost data. Although comprehensive state-specific figures are not available, applying prevalence data to existing estimates and obtaining actual claims and program expenditures may help close this information gap.

  18. Development of the town data base: Estimates of exposure rates and times of fallout arrival near the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.B.; McArthur, R.D.; Hutchinson, S.W.

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Off-Site Radiation Exposure Review Project, the time of fallout arrival and the H+12 exposure rate were estimated for populated locations in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah that were affected by fallout from one or more nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. Estimates of exposure rate were derived from measured values recorded before and after each test by fallout monitors in the field. The estimate for a given location was obtained by retrieving from a data base all measurements made in the vicinity, decay-correcting them to H+12, and calculating an average. Estimates were also derived from maps produced after most events that show isopleths of exposure rate and time of fallout arrival. Both sets of isopleths on these maps were digitized, and kriging was used to interpolate values at the nodes of a 10-km grid covering the pattern. The values at any location within the grid were then estimated from the values at the surrounding grid nodes. Estimates of dispersion (standard deviation) were also calculated. The Town Data Base contains the estimates for all combinations of location and nuclear event for which the estimated mean H+12 exposure rate was greater than three times background. A listing of the data base is included as an appendix. The information was used by other project task groups to estimate the radiation dose that off-site populations and individuals may have received as a result of exposure to fallout from Nevada nuclear tests

  19. DEVELOPMENT OF A HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL OF A HYDROCYCLONE INCLUDING THE SIMULATION OF AIR-CORE EFFECT, USING THE FINITE VOLUME METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Felipe Aguilera

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The hydrocyclone is one of the most used classification equipment in industry, particularly in mineral processing. Maybe its main characteristic is to be a hydrodynamic separation equipment, whereby it has a high production capability and different levels of efficiency are depending on the geometrical configuration, operational parameters and the type of material to be processed. Nevertheless, there are a few successful studies regarding the modelling and simulation of its hydrodynamic principles, because the flow behavior inside is quite complex. Most of the current models are empirical and they are not applicable to all cases and types of minerals. One of the most important problems to be solved, besides the cut size and the effect of the physical properties of the particles, is the distribution of the flow inside the hydrocyclone, because if the work of the equipment is at low slurry densities, very clear for small hydrocyclones, its mechanic behavior is a consequence of the kind of liquid used as continuous phase, being water the most common liquid. This work shows the modelling and simulation of the hydrodynamic behavior of a suspension inside a hydrocyclone, including the air core effect, through the use of finite differences method. For the developing of the model, the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM for the evaluation of turbulence, and the Volume of Fluid (VOF to study the interaction between water and air were used. Finally, the model shows to be significant for experimental data, and for different conditions of an industrial plant.

  20. Development of sustainable precision farming systems for swine: estimating real-time individual amino acid requirements in growing-finishing pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauschild, L; Lovatto, P A; Pomar, J; Pomar, C

    2012-07-01

    The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a mathematical model used to estimate the daily amino acid requirements of individual growing-finishing pigs. The model includes empirical and mechanistic model components. The empirical component estimates daily feed intake (DFI), BW, and daily gain (DG) based on individual pig information collected in real time. Based on DFI, BW, and DG estimates, the mechanistic component uses classic factorial equations to estimate the optimal concentration of amino acids that must be offered to each pig to meet its requirements. The model was evaluated with data from a study that investigated the effect of feeding pigs with a 3-phase or daily multiphase system. The DFI and BW values measured in this study were compared with those estimated by the empirical component of the model. The coherence of the values estimated by the mechanistic component was evaluated by analyzing if it followed a normal pattern of requirements. Lastly, the proposed model was evaluated by comparing its estimates with those generated by the existing growth model (InraPorc). The precision of the proposed model and InraPorc in estimating DFI and BW was evaluated through the mean absolute error. The empirical component results indicated that the DFI and BW trajectories of individual pigs fed ad libitum could be predicted 1 d (DFI) or 7 d (BW) ahead with the average mean absolute error of 12.45 and 1.85%, respectively. The average mean absolute error obtained with the InraPorc for the average individual of the population was 14.72% for DFI and 5.38% for BW. Major differences were observed when estimates from InraPorc were compared with individual observations. The proposed model, however, was effective in tracking the change in DFI and BW for each individual pig. The mechanistic model component estimated the optimal standardized ileal digestible Lys to NE ratio with reasonable between animal (average CV = 7%) and overtime (average CV = 14%) variation

  1. Development of an evolutionary fuzzy expert system for estimating future behavior of stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmanpazir, Farhad; Asadi, Shahrokh

    2017-03-01

    The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a "data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system" (DEFES) approach to estimate the behavior of stock price. This tool is developed in seven-stage architecture. Data mining is used in three stages to reduce the complexity of the whole data space. The first stage, noise filtering, is used to make our raw data clean and smooth. Variable selection is second stage; we use stepwise regression analysis to choose the key variables been considered in the model. In the third stage, K-means is used to divide the data into sub-populations to decrease the effects of noise and rebate complexity of the patterns. At next stage, extraction of Mamdani type fuzzy rule-based system will be carried out for each cluster by means of genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy. In the fifth stage, we use binary genetic algorithm to rule filtering to remove the redundant rules in order to solve over learning phenomenon. In the sixth stage, we utilize the genetic tuning process to slightly adjust the shape of the membership functions. Last stage is the testing performance of tool and adjusts parameters. This is the first study on using an approximate fuzzy rule base system and evolutionary strategy with the ability of extracting the whole knowledge base of fuzzy expert system for stock price forecasting problems. The superiority and applicability of DEFES are shown for International Business Machines Corporation and compared the outcome with the results of the other methods. Results with MAPE metric and Wilcoxon signed ranks test indicate that DEFES provides more accuracy and outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a superior tool for

  2. First Order Estimates of Energy Requirements for Pollution Control. Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development Program Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, James L.; And Others

    This U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report presents estimates of the energy demand attributable to environmental control of pollution from stationary point sources. This class of pollution source includes powerplants, factories, refineries, municipal waste water treatment plants, etc., but excludes mobile sources such as trucks, and…

  3. Development and comparision of techniques for estimating design basis flood flows for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-05-01

    Estimation of the design basis flood for Nuclear Power Plants can be carried out using either deterministic or stochastic techniques. Stochastic techniques, while widely used for the solution of a variety of hydrological and other problems, have not been used to date (1980) in connection with the estimation of design basis flood for NPP siting. This study compares the two techniques against one specific river site (Galt on the Grand River, Ontario). The study concludes that both techniques lead to comparable results , but that stochastic techniques have the advantage of extracting maximum information from available data and presenting the results (flood flow) as a continuous function of probability together with estimation of confidence limits. (author)

  4. Estimation of Bouguer Density Precision: Development of Method for Analysis of La Soufriere Volcano Gravity Data

    OpenAIRE

    Gunawan, Hendra; Micheldiament, Micheldiament; Mikhailov, Valentin

    2008-01-01

    http://dx.doi.org/10.17014/ijog.vol3no3.20084The precision of topographic density (Bouguer density) estimation by the Nettleton approach is based on a minimum correlation of Bouguer gravity anomaly and topography. The other method, the Parasnis approach, is based on a minimum correlation of Bouguer gravity anomaly and Bouguer correction. The precision of Bouguer density estimates was investigated by both methods on simple 2D syntetic models and under an assumption free-air anomaly consisting ...

  5. The precipitation-/runoff model ZEMOKOST: development of a practical model for the determination of flood runoff in the catchment areas of torrents, including improved data field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohl, B.

    2010-01-01

    In hydrology a basic task is the estimation of design discharges and runoff changes in ungauged catchments. However, traditional empirical rules of thumb as well as regionalization of measured discharges are subject to uncertainty. It seems that precipitation-runoff modelling is the only comprehensible way to predict discharge alterations due to changes in ungauged basins, even though the results are perhaps not less uncertain. In order to minimize this uncertainty this work presents a new methodology for discharge estimation in ungauged basins by introducing runoff coefficients derived from field assessment, by a new adapted precipitation-runoff model (ZEMOKOST) and routines for a plausibility check. Subsequently ten gauged Austrian catchments were used as hypothetical ungauged catchments for application and verification of this method. Except for special questions in karst- and glacier-hydrology the procedure showed satisfying results. (author) [de

  6. Preliminary methodological proposal for estimating environmental flows in projects approved by the ministry of environment and sustainable development (MADS), Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinilla Agudelo, Gabriel A; Rodriguez Sandoval, Erasmo A; Camacho Botero, Luis A

    2014-01-01

    A methodological proposal for estimating environmental flows in large projects approved by Agencia Nacional de Licencias Ambientales (ANLA) in Colombian rivers was developed. The project is the result of an agreement between the MADS and the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota (UNC). The proposed method begins with an evaluation of hydrological criteria, continues with a hydraulic and water quality validation, and follows with the determination of habitat integrity. This is an iterative process that compares conditions before and after the project construction and allows to obtain the magnitude of a monthly flow that, besides preserving the ecological functions of the river, guarantees the water uses downstream. Regarding to the biotic component, the proposal includes the establishment and monitoring of biotic integrity indices for four aquatic communities (periphyton, macro invertebrates, riparian vegetation, and fish). The effects that flow reduction may produce in the medium and long term can be assessed by these indices. We present the results of applying the methodology to several projects licensed by the MADS.

  7. SU-E-T-138: Automated Chart Review Module Including Cross-Vendor Data Transfer Verification Developed for IHE-RO Initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brewer, M; Gordon, C [Franciscan St Margaret Health, Hammond, IN (United States); Tien, C [Community Hospital, Munster, IN (United States)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To follow the Integrating Healthcare Enterprise - Radiation Oncology (IHE-RO) initiative of proper cross-vendor technology integration, an automated chart checker (ACC) was developed. ACC compares extracted data from an approved patient plan in the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) against data existing in the Mosaiq treatment management system (TMS). ACC automatically analyzes these parameters using built-in quality checklists to provide further aid in chart review. Methods: Eclipse TPS data are obtained using Eclipse scripting API (ESAPI) while Mosaiq TMS data are obtained from a radiotherapy-treatment-planning (RTP) file. Using this information, ACC identifies TPS-TMS discrepancies in 18 primary beam parameters including MU, energy, jaw positions, gantry angle, table angle, accessories, and bolus for up to 31 beams. Next, approximately 40 items from traditional quality checklists are evaluated such as prescription consistency, DRR graticule placement, plan approval status, global max dose, and dose tracking coefficients. Parameters were artificially modified to determine if ACC would detect an error in data transfer and to test each component of quality checklists. Results: Using ESAPI scripting and RTP file-processing, ACC was able to properly aggregate data from TPS and TMS for up to 31 beams. Errors were artificially introduced into each plan parameter, and ACC was able to successfully detect all of them within seconds. Next, ACC was able to successfully detect mistakes in the chart by identifying deviations with its quality checklists, within seconds. Conclusion: ACC effectively addresses the potential issue of faulty cross-vendor data transfer, as described by IHE-RO. In addition, ACC was also able to detect deviations from its built-in quality checklists. ACC is already an invaluable tool for efficient and standardized chart review and will continue to improve as its incorporated checklists become more comprehensive.

  8. SU-E-T-138: Automated Chart Review Module Including Cross-Vendor Data Transfer Verification Developed for IHE-RO Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewer, M; Gordon, C; Tien, C

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To follow the Integrating Healthcare Enterprise - Radiation Oncology (IHE-RO) initiative of proper cross-vendor technology integration, an automated chart checker (ACC) was developed. ACC compares extracted data from an approved patient plan in the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) against data existing in the Mosaiq treatment management system (TMS). ACC automatically analyzes these parameters using built-in quality checklists to provide further aid in chart review. Methods: Eclipse TPS data are obtained using Eclipse scripting API (ESAPI) while Mosaiq TMS data are obtained from a radiotherapy-treatment-planning (RTP) file. Using this information, ACC identifies TPS-TMS discrepancies in 18 primary beam parameters including MU, energy, jaw positions, gantry angle, table angle, accessories, and bolus for up to 31 beams. Next, approximately 40 items from traditional quality checklists are evaluated such as prescription consistency, DRR graticule placement, plan approval status, global max dose, and dose tracking coefficients. Parameters were artificially modified to determine if ACC would detect an error in data transfer and to test each component of quality checklists. Results: Using ESAPI scripting and RTP file-processing, ACC was able to properly aggregate data from TPS and TMS for up to 31 beams. Errors were artificially introduced into each plan parameter, and ACC was able to successfully detect all of them within seconds. Next, ACC was able to successfully detect mistakes in the chart by identifying deviations with its quality checklists, within seconds. Conclusion: ACC effectively addresses the potential issue of faulty cross-vendor data transfer, as described by IHE-RO. In addition, ACC was also able to detect deviations from its built-in quality checklists. ACC is already an invaluable tool for efficient and standardized chart review and will continue to improve as its incorporated checklists become more comprehensive

  9. Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with flexible error structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Shiftan, Yoram; Bekhor, Shlomo

    2009-01-01

    , and utility-based choice accommodating alternatively nested substitution patterns across the alternatives and random taste variation across the population. The proposed model is applied to off-campus rental apartment choice of students. Results show (i) the estimated model for a universal realm of 200...

  10. Rain Forest Tourism - Estimating the Benefits of Tourism Development in a New National Park in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Evan Mercer; R. Kramer; N. Sharma

    1995-01-01

    Travel cost and contingent valuation methods are applied to the problem of estimating the potential consumer surplus available to international nature tourists from a rain forest conservation project in Madagascar. Data are derived from surveys of nature tourists in Madagascar and international, nature tourism professionals in the U.S. and Europe. Typical trip travel...

  11. The SVM Method for Fissile Mass Estimation through Passive Neutron Interrogation: Advances and Developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubi, C.; Shvili, Israel I.

    2014-01-01

    Fissile mass estimation through passive neutron interrogation is now one of the main techniques for NDT of fissile mass estimation, due to the relative transparency of neutron radiation to structural materials- making it extremely effective in poorly characterized or dirty samples . Passive neutron interrogation relies on the fact that the number of neutrons emitted (per time unit) due to spontaneous fissions from the sample is proportional to the mass of the detected sample. However, since the measurement is effected by additional neutron sources- mainly (D±n) reactions and induced fission chain in the tested sample, a naive estimation, assuming a linear correspondence between the mass of the detected sample and the average number of detections, is bound to give an over estimation of the mass. Since most passive interrogation facilities are based on 3He detectors, the origin of the neutron cannot be determined by analyzing the energy spectrum (as all neutrons arrive at the detector in more or less the same energy), and a mathematical 'filter' is used to evaluate the noise to source ratio in the detection signal. The basic idea behind the mathematical filter is to utilize the fact that the different neutron sources have different statistical attributes- in particular, both the source event rate and the distribution of the number of neutrons released in each event differs between the different sources. There for, by studying the higher moments of the neutron population, new information about the source to noise ration may be obtained

  12. Development of 1-Mile Walk Tests to Estimate Aerobic Fitness in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Hoyong; Collier, David N.; DuBose, Katrina D.; Kemble, C. David; Mahar, Matthew T.

    2018-01-01

    To examine the reliability and validity of 1-mile walk tests for estimation of aerobic fitness (VO[subscript 2max]) in 10- to 13-year-old children and to cross-validate previously published equations. Participants (n = 61) walked 1-mile on two different days. Self-reported physical activity, demographic variables, and aerobic fitness were used in…

  13. Estimating success probability of a rugby goal kick and developing a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was firstly to derive a formula to estimate the success probability of a particular rugby goal kick and, secondly to derive a goal kicker rating measure that could be used to rank rugby union goal kickers. Various factors that could influence the success of a particular goal kick were considered.

  14. FINANCIAL STABILITY OF SMALL BUSINESS: THE ESTIMATION AND DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.U. Makarova

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available In clause the problem of an estimation of financial stability of the enterprises of small business is considered. It is offered to use traditional indicators of an estimation of the financial stability, describing it in the short-term period, and such indicators as equation of monetary streams, qualitative risk-management, a level äèâåðñèôèêàöèè business and competitive position of the company for an estimation of stability in the long-term period. On the basis of data of statistical supervision over small enterprises the estimation of dynamics of results of financial activity and financial stability of small enterprises of Sverdlovsk area is lead to 2001 – 2005 is drawn a conclusion about low parameters of solvency and financial stability of small enterprises of region in comparison with normative parameters and data on the large and average enterprises. The measures directed on increase of financial stability of the enterprises of small business are offered.

  15. Development and validation of a method to estimate body weight in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mid-arm circumference (MAC) has previously been used as a surrogate indicator of habitus, and the objective of this study was to determine whether MAC cut-off values could be used to predict habitus scores (HSs) to create an objective and standardised weight estimation methodology, the PAWPER XL-MAC method.

  16. Urban forest biomass estimates: is it important to use allometric relationships developed specifically for urban trees? 

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.R. McHale; I.C. Burke; M.A. Lefsky; P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson

    2009-01-01

    Many studies have analyzed the benefits, costs, and carbon storage capacity associated with urban trees. These studies have been limited by a lack of research on urban tree biomass, such that estimates of carbon storage in urban systems have relied upon allometric relationships developed in traditional forests. As urbanization increases globally, it is becoming...

  17. Estimation of the Level of Cognitive Development of a Preschool Child Using the System of Situations with Mathematical Contents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorev, Pavel M.; Bichurina, Svetlana Y.; Yakupova, Rufiya M.; Khairova, Irina V.

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive development of personality can be considered as one of the key directions of preschool education presented in the world practice, where preschool programs are educational ones, and preschool education is the first level of the general education. Thereby the purpose of the research is to create a model of reliable estimation of cognitive…

  18. Development of a Probabilistic Technique for On-line Parameter and State Estimation in Non-linear Dynamic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tunc Aldemir; Miller, Don W.; Hajek, Brian K.; Peng Wang

    2002-01-01

    The DSD (Dynamic System Doctor) is a system-independent, interactive software under development for on-line state/parameter estimation in dynamic systems (1), partially supported through a Nuclear Engineering Education (NEER) grant during 1998-2001. This paper summarizes the recent accomplishments in improving the user-friendliness and computational capability of DSD

  19. A reevaluation of the lineage development of Pararotalia and Praepararotalia including new material from the Rupelian of the southern Upper Rhine Graben

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirkenseer, C.; Spezzaferri, S.

    2009-04-01

    more rapid increase of chamber size. The necessity of a new genus is in discussion. The second group includes the small intermediate species as Pararotalia ishamae, characterized by inflated globular chambers, a general absence of a keel, partial development of small pseudospines and umbilical plugs. This group can be traced up to recent, as is indicated by the occurrence of small sized Pararotalia cananeiaensis (DEBENAY et al. 2001). Material from the research area (PIRKENSEER 2007), though of generally larger size is attributed to the Rupelian P. curryi. It however shows variation in the development of pseudospines, the lateral profile and umbilicus. The latter species may be a synonym of the similar Late Eocene P. parva. The third group consists only of Pararotalia spinigera (Lutetian) and Pararotalia canui (Rupelian) with an inflated angular lateral profile and a relatively large size. Material from the research area attributed to P. canui shows massive well-developed peripheral pseudospines, a strong umbilical plug and a rounded keel. Double pseudospines occur sporadically. The apertural lip is heavily toothed. The fourth group consists of species with a very angular lateral profile, conical chambers, distinct umbilical plug and a moderate to very large size (up to 600µm), ranging from the Thanetian (Pararotalia minimalis) at least to the Pliocene (P. padana, MANCIN et al. 2000). This reevaluation indicates the perseverance of the "primitive" group of Pararotalia macneilli until today. It thus contradicts a gradual development of the genus Pararotalia to more spineous, angular and larger forms. The latter morphogroup exists well defined since the Paleocene with representatives throughout the Paleogene and Neogene. This study was partly funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation projects 109457 and 118025. References: DEBENAY, J. P., DULEBA, W., BONETTI, C., et al. (2001): Pararotalia cananeiaensis n. sp.: indicator of marine influence and water circulation

  20. Development of a Trip Energy Estimation Model Using Real-World Global Positioning System Driving Data: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holden, Jacob [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wood, Eric W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhu, Lei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gonder, Jeffrey D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tian, Ye [Metropia, Inc.

    2017-09-15

    A data-driven technique for estimation of energy requirements for a proposed vehicle trip has been developed. Based on over 700,000 miles of driving data, the technique has been applied to generate a model that estimates trip energy requirements. The model uses a novel binning approach to categorize driving by road type, traffic conditions, and driving profile. The trip-level energy estimations can easily be aggregated to any higher-level transportation system network desired. The model has been tested and validated on the Austin, Texas, data set used to build this model. Ground-truth energy consumption for the data set was obtained from Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) vehicle simulation results. The energy estimation model has demonstrated 12.1 percent normalized total absolute error. The energy estimation from the model can be used to inform control strategies in routing tools, such as change in departure time, alternate routing, and alternate destinations, to reduce energy consumption. The model can also be used to determine more accurate energy consumption of regional or national transportation networks if trip origin and destinations are known. Additionally, this method allows the estimation tool to be tuned to a specific driver or vehicle type.

  1. Developing Daily Quantitative Damage Estimates From Geospatial Layers To Support Post Event Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, B. K.; Wei, L. H.; Connor, T. C.

    2014-12-01

    With the growth of natural hazard data available in near real-time it is increasingly feasible to deliver damage estimates caused by natural disasters. These estimates can be used in disaster management setting or by commercial entities to optimize the deployment of resources and/or routing of goods and materials. This work outlines an end-to-end, modular process to generate estimates of damage caused by severe weather. The processing stream consists of five generic components: 1) Hazard modules that provide quantitate data layers for each peril. 2) Standardized methods to map the hazard data to an exposure layer based on atomic geospatial blocks. 3) Peril-specific damage functions that compute damage metrics at the atomic geospatial block level. 4) Standardized data aggregators, which map damage to user-specific geometries. 5) Data dissemination modules, which provide resulting damage estimates in a variety of output forms. This presentation provides a description of this generic tool set, and an illustrated example using HWRF-based hazard data for Hurricane Arthur (2014). In this example, the Python-based real-time processing ingests GRIB2 output from the HWRF numerical model, dynamically downscales it in conjunctions with a land cover database using a multiprocessing pool, and a just-in-time compiler (JIT). The resulting wind fields are contoured, and ingested into a PostGIS database using OGR. Finally, the damage estimates are calculated at the atomic block level and aggregated to user-defined regions using PostgreSQL queries to construct application specific tabular and graphics output.

  2. Estimation of somatic development and mental state of children with neoplasmatic disease after long-term chemotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korzon, M.; Kaminska, B.; Bohdan, Z.; Liberek, A.; Rokosz, K.

    1993-01-01

    33 children with neoplasmatic disease after long-term complex treatment were subjected to a single estimation of somatic development and to psychological examinations. From examinations it appears that long-term chemo- and radiotherapy or surgical treatment in these patients had no negative influence on their physical development. Psychological analysis had shown mind disturbances in children with is connected with this special kind of the disease and stress that children and their parents had undergone. (author)

  3. Model developments for quantitative estimates of the benefits of the signals on nuclear power plant availability and economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seong, Poong Hyun

    1993-01-01

    A novel framework for quantitative estimates of the benefits of signals on nuclear power plant availability and economics has been developed in this work. The models developed in this work quantify how the perfect signals affect the human operator's success in restoring the power plant to the desired state when it enters undesirable transients. Also, the models quantify the economic benefits of these perfect signals. The models have been applied to the condensate feedwater system of the nuclear power plant for demonstration. (Author)

  4. Development of a method for estimating oesophageal temperature by multi-locational temperature measurement inside the external auditory canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakada, Hirofumi; Horie, Seichi; Kawanami, Shoko; Inoue, Jinro; Iijima, Yoshinori; Sato, Kiyoharu; Abe, Takeshi

    2017-09-01

    We aimed to develop a practical method to estimate oesophageal temperature by measuring multi-locational auditory canal temperatures. This method can be applied to prevent heatstroke by simultaneously and continuously monitoring the core temperatures of people working under hot environments. We asked 11 healthy male volunteers to exercise, generating 80 W for 45 min in a climatic chamber set at 24, 32 and 40 °C, at 50% relative humidity. We also exposed the participants to radiation at 32 °C. We continuously measured temperatures at the oesophagus, rectum and three different locations along the external auditory canal. We developed equations for estimating oesophageal temperatures from auditory canal temperatures and compared their fitness and errors. The rectal temperature increased or decreased faster than oesophageal temperature at the start or end of exercise in all conditions. Estimated temperature showed good similarity with oesophageal temperature, and the square of the correlation coefficient of the best fitting model reached 0.904. We observed intermediate values between rectal and oesophageal temperatures during the rest phase. Even under the condition with radiation, estimated oesophageal temperature demonstrated concordant movement with oesophageal temperature at around 0.1 °C overestimation. Our method measured temperatures at three different locations along the external auditory canal. We confirmed that the approach can credibly estimate the oesophageal temperature from 24 to 40 °C for people performing exercise in the same place in a windless environment.

  5. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related Sustainable Development Goals in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2017-01-01

    The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) triggered increased demand for data on child and maternal mortality for monitoring progress. With the advent of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition towards non-communicable diseases, policy makers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper draws lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease study (BOD) on capacity development for NHEs, and discusses the contributions and limitation of GHEs in informing policies at country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and sub-national levels. Initially, the quality of cause of death reporting in the death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This helped improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and effective interfaces between researchers and decision makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, while sub-national data are intended to be used by various sub-national-level partners. Though GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  6. Development of the methodology for estimation of dose from a source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golebaone, E.M.

    2012-04-01

    The geometry of a source plays an important role when determining which method to apply in order to accurately estimate dose from a source. If wrong source geometry is used the dose received may be underestimated or overestimated therefore this may lead to wrong decision in dealing with the exposure situation. In this project moisture density gauge was used to represent a point source in order to demonstrate the key parameters to be used when estimating dose from point source. The parameters to be considered are activity of the source, the ambient dose rate, gamma constant for the radionuclide, as well as the transport index on the package of the source. The distance from the source, and the time spent in the radiation field must be known in order to calculate the dose. (author)

  7. Development of a computationally efficient algorithm for attitude estimation of a remote sensing satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labibian, Amir; Bahrami, Amir Hossein; Haghshenas, Javad

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a computationally efficient algorithm for attitude estimation of remote a sensing satellite. In this study, gyro, magnetometer, sun sensor and star tracker are used in Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) structure for the purpose of Attitude Determination (AD). However, utilizing all of the measurement data simultaneously in EKF structure increases computational burden. Specifically, assuming n observation vectors, an inverse of a 3n×3n matrix is required for gain calculation. In order to solve this problem, an efficient version of EKF, namely Murrell's version, is employed. This method utilizes measurements separately at each sampling time for gain computation. Therefore, an inverse of a 3n×3n matrix is replaced by an inverse of a 3×3 matrix for each measurement vector. Moreover, gyro drifts during the time can reduce the pointing accuracy. Therefore, a calibration algorithm is utilized for estimation of the main gyro parameters.

  8. Monte Carlo-based development of a shield and total background estimation for the COBRA experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidrich, Nadine

    2014-11-01

    The COBRA experiment aims for the measurement of the neutrinoless double beta decay and thus for the determination the effective Majorana mass of the neutrino. To be competitive with other next-generation experiments the background rate has to be in the order of 10 -3 counts/kg/keV/yr, which is a challenging criterion. This thesis deals with the development of a shield design and the calculation of the expected total background rate for the large scale COBRA experiment containing 13824 6 cm 3 CdZnTe detectors. For the development of a shield single-layer and multi-layer shields were investigated and a shield design was optimized concerning high-energy muon-induced neutrons. As the best design the combination of 10 cm boron doped polyethylene as outermost layer, 20 cm lead and 10 cm copper as innermost layer were determined. It showed the best performance regarding neutron attenuation as well as (n, γ) self-shielding effects leading to a negligible background rate of less than 2.10 -6 counts/kg/keV/yr. Additionally. the shield with a thickness of 40 cm is compact and costeffective. In the next step the expected total background rate was computed taking into account individual setup parts and various background sources including natural and man-made radioactivity, cosmic ray-induced background and thermal neutrons. Furthermore, a comparison of measured data from the COBRA demonstrator setup with Monte Carlo data was used to calculate reliable contamination levels of the single setup parts. The calculation was performed conservatively to prevent an underestimation. In addition, the contribution to the total background rate regarding the individual detector parts and background sources was investigated. The main portion arise from the Delrin support structure, the Glyptal lacquer followed by the circuit board of the high voltage supply. Most background events originate from particles with a quantity of 99 % in total. Regarding surface events a contribution of 26

  9. Monte Carlo-based development of a shield and total background estimation for the COBRA experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heidrich, Nadine

    2014-11-15

    The COBRA experiment aims for the measurement of the neutrinoless double beta decay and thus for the determination the effective Majorana mass of the neutrino. To be competitive with other next-generation experiments the background rate has to be in the order of 10{sup -3} counts/kg/keV/yr, which is a challenging criterion. This thesis deals with the development of a shield design and the calculation of the expected total background rate for the large scale COBRA experiment containing 13824 6 cm{sup 3} CdZnTe detectors. For the development of a shield single-layer and multi-layer shields were investigated and a shield design was optimized concerning high-energy muon-induced neutrons. As the best design the combination of 10 cm boron doped polyethylene as outermost layer, 20 cm lead and 10 cm copper as innermost layer were determined. It showed the best performance regarding neutron attenuation as well as (n, γ) self-shielding effects leading to a negligible background rate of less than 2.10{sup -6} counts/kg/keV/yr. Additionally. the shield with a thickness of 40 cm is compact and costeffective. In the next step the expected total background rate was computed taking into account individual setup parts and various background sources including natural and man-made radioactivity, cosmic ray-induced background and thermal neutrons. Furthermore, a comparison of measured data from the COBRA demonstrator setup with Monte Carlo data was used to calculate reliable contamination levels of the single setup parts. The calculation was performed conservatively to prevent an underestimation. In addition, the contribution to the total background rate regarding the individual detector parts and background sources was investigated. The main portion arise from the Delrin support structure, the Glyptal lacquer followed by the circuit board of the high voltage supply. Most background events originate from particles with a quantity of 99 % in total. Regarding surface events a

  10. Development and Verification of the Tire/Road Friction Estimation Algorithm for Antilock Braking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Road friction information is very important for vehicle active braking control systems such as ABS, ASR, or ESP. It is not easy to estimate the tire/road friction forces and coefficient accurately because of the nonlinear system, parameters uncertainties, and signal noises. In this paper, a robust and effective tire/road friction estimation algorithm for ABS is proposed, and its performance is further discussed by simulation and experiment. The tire forces were observed by the discrete Kalman filter, and the road friction coefficient was estimated by the recursive least square method consequently. Then, the proposed algorithm was analysed and verified by simulation and road test. A sliding mode based ABS with smooth wheel slip ratio control and a threshold based ABS by pulse pressure control with significant fluctuations were used for the simulation. Finally, road tests were carried out in both winter and summer by the car equipped with the same threshold based ABS, and the algorithm was evaluated on different road surfaces. The results show that the proposed algorithm can identify the variation of road conditions with considerable accuracy and response speed.

  11. Development of a low-maintenance measurement approach to continuously estimate methane emissions: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S N; Hancock, B R; Robinson, A D; Connors, S; Davies, S; Allen, G; Pitt, J; Harris, N R P

    2018-03-01

    The chemical breakdown of organic matter in landfills represents a significant source of methane gas (CH 4 ). Current estimates suggest that landfills are responsible for between 3% and 19% of global anthropogenic emissions. The net CH 4 emissions resulting from biogeochemical processes and their modulation by microbes in landfills are poorly constrained by imprecise knowledge of environmental constraints. The uncertainty in absolute CH 4 emissions from landfills is therefore considerable. This study investigates a new method to estimate the temporal variability of CH 4 emissions using meteorological and CH 4 concentration measurements downwind of a landfill site in Suffolk, UK from July to September 2014, taking advantage of the statistics that such a measurement approach offers versus shorter-term, but more complex and instantaneously accurate, flux snapshots. Methane emissions were calculated from CH 4 concentrations measured 700m from the perimeter of the landfill with observed concentrations ranging from background to 46.4ppm. Using an atmospheric dispersion model, we estimate a mean emission flux of 709μgm -2 s -1 over this period, with a maximum value of 6.21mgm -2 s -1 , reflecting the wide natural variability in biogeochemical and other environmental controls on net site emission. The emissions calculated suggest that meteorological conditions have an influence on the magnitude of CH 4 emissions. We also investigate the factors responsible for the large variability observed in the estimated CH 4 emissions, and suggest that the largest component arises from uncertainty in the spatial distribution of CH 4 emissions within the landfill area. The results determined using the low-maintenance approach discussed in this paper suggest that a network of cheaper, less precise CH 4 sensors could be used to measure a continuous CH 4 emission time series from a landfill site, something that is not practical using far-field approaches such as tracer release methods

  12. Advancing development of a limit reference point estimator for sea turtles, and evaluating methods for applying local management to highly migratory species

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — SWFSC is developing tools for estimation of limit reference points for marine turtles. These tools are being applied initially to estimate a limit reference point...

  13. Development of estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for use with the short willet food frequency questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griesenbeck, John S; Steck, Michelle D; Huber, John C; Sharkey, Joseph R; Rene, Antonio A; Brender, Jean D

    2009-01-01

    Background Studies have suggested that nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines have an etiologic role in adverse pregnancy outcomes and chronic diseases such as cancer. Although an extensive body of literature exists on estimates of these compounds in foods, the extant data varies in quality, quantified estimates, and relevance. Methods We developed estimates of nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for food items listed in the Short Willet Food Frequency Questionnaire (WFFQ) as adapted for use in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study. Multiple reference databases were searched for published literature reflecting nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamine values in foods. Relevant published literature was reviewed; only publications reporting results for items listed on the WFFQ were selected for inclusion. The references selected were prioritized according to relevance to the U.S. population. Results Based on our estimates, vegetable products contain the highest levels of nitrate, contributing as much as 189 mg/serving. Meat and bean products contain the highest levels of nitrites with values up to 1.84 mg/serving. Alcohol, meat and dairy products contain the highest values of nitrosamines with a maximum value of 0.531 μg/serving. The estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines generated in this study are based on the published values currently available. Conclusion To our knowledge, these are the only estimates specifically designed for use with the adapted WFFQ and generated to represent food items available to the U.S. population. The estimates provided may be useful in other research studies, specifically in those exploring the relation between exposure to these compounds in foods and adverse health outcomes. PMID:19348679

  14. Development of estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for use with the short willet food frequency questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rene Antonio A

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Studies have suggested that nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines have an etiologic role in adverse pregnancy outcomes and chronic diseases such as cancer. Although an extensive body of literature exists on estimates of these compounds in foods, the extant data varies in quality, quantified estimates, and relevance. Methods We developed estimates of nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for food items listed in the Short Willet Food Frequency Questionnaire (WFFQ as adapted for use in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study. Multiple reference databases were searched for published literature reflecting nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamine values in foods. Relevant published literature was reviewed; only publications reporting results for items listed on the WFFQ were selected for inclusion. The references selected were prioritized according to relevance to the U.S. population. Results Based on our estimates, vegetable products contain the highest levels of nitrate, contributing as much as 189 mg/serving. Meat and bean products contain the highest levels of nitrites with values up to 1.84 mg/serving. Alcohol, meat and dairy products contain the highest values of nitrosamines with a maximum value of 0.531 μg/serving. The estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines generated in this study are based on the published values currently available. Conclusion To our knowledge, these are the only estimates specifically designed for use with the adapted WFFQ and generated to represent food items available to the U.S. population. The estimates provided may be useful in other research studies, specifically in those exploring the relation between exposure to these compounds in foods and adverse health outcomes.

  15. Development of estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for use with the Short Willet Food Frequency Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griesenbeck, John S; Steck, Michelle D; Huber, John C; Sharkey, Joseph R; Rene, Antonio A; Brender, Jean D

    2009-04-06

    Studies have suggested that nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines have an etiologic role in adverse pregnancy outcomes and chronic diseases such as cancer. Although an extensive body of literature exists on estimates of these compounds in foods, the extant data varies in quality, quantified estimates, and relevance. We developed estimates of nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for food items listed in the Short Willet Food Frequency Questionnaire (WFFQ) as adapted for use in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study. Multiple reference databases were searched for published literature reflecting nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamine values in foods. Relevant published literature was reviewed; only publications reporting results for items listed on the WFFQ were selected for inclusion. The references selected were prioritized according to relevance to the U.S. population. Based on our estimates, vegetable products contain the highest levels of nitrate, contributing as much as 189 mg/serving. Meat and bean products contain the highest levels of nitrites with values up to 1.84 mg/serving. Alcohol, meat and dairy products contain the highest values of nitrosamines with a maximum value of 0.531 microg/serving. The estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines generated in this study are based on the published values currently available. To our knowledge, these are the only estimates specifically designed for use with the adapted WFFQ and generated to represent food items available to the U.S. population. The estimates provided may be useful in other research studies, specifically in those exploring the relation between exposure to these compounds in foods and adverse health outcomes.

  16. Estimating the Natural Flow Regime of Rivers With Long-Standing Development: The Northern Branch of the Rio Grande

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blythe, Todd L.; Schmidt, John C.

    2018-02-01

    An estimate of a river's natural flow regime is useful for water resource planning and ecosystem rehabilitation by providing insight into the predisturbance form and function of a river. The natural flow regime of most rivers has been perturbed by development during the 20th century and in some cases, before stream gaging began. The temporal resolution of natural flows estimated using traditional methods is typically not sufficient to evaluate cues that drive native ecosystem function. Additionally, these traditional methods are watershed specific and require large amounts of data to produce accurate results. We present a mass balance method that estimates natural flows at daily time step resolution for the northern branch of the Rio Grande, upstream from the Rio Conchos, that relies only on easily obtained streamflow data. Using an analytical change point method, we identified periods of the measured flow regime during the 20th century for comparison with the estimated natural flows. Our results highlight the significant deviation from natural conditions that occurred during the 20th century. The total annual flow of the northern branch is 95% lower than it would be in the absence of human use. The current 2 year flood has decreased by more than 60%, is shorter in duration, and peaks later in the year. When compared to unregulated flows estimated using traditional mass balance accounting methods, our approach provides similar results.

  17. Development of an Intelligent Tire Based Tire - Vehicle State Estimator for Application to Global Chassis Control

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Kanwar Bharat

    2012-01-01

    The contact between the tire and the road is the key enabler of vehicle acceleration, deceleration and steering. However, under the circumstances of sudden changes to the road conditions, the driver`s ability to maintain control of the vehicle maybe at risk. In many cases, this requires intervention from the chassis control systems onboard the vehicle. Although these systems perform well in a variety of situations, their performance can be improved if a real-time estimate of the tire-road c...

  18. Development of High Spectral Resolution Technique for Registration Quasielastic Light Scattering Spectra Including Rayleigh and Brillouin Scattering as a Diagnostic Tool in Materials Characterization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bairamov, Bakhysh

    2004-01-01

    ...: As detailed in an on-line proposal the contractor will: 1) develop and build an optical device, fitted to a Fabry-Perot interferometer, to perform high-resolution quasieleastic light scattering spectroscopy; 2...

  19. When is enough, enough? Identifying predictors of capacity estimates for onshore wind-power development in a region of the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Christopher R.; Orr, Barry J.; Eiser, J. Richard

    2011-01-01

    The level of 'wind-prospecting' presently occurring in the UK is increasing the likelihood that new wind-power developments will conflict with other existing and/or proposed schemes. This study reports multiple-regression analyses performed on survey data obtained in a region of the UK (i.e. Humberhead Levels, near Doncaster) simultaneously subject to nine wind-farm proposals (September 2008). The aim of the analysis was to identify which survey-items were predictors of respondents' estimates of the number of wind turbines they believed the region could reasonably support (i.e. capacity estimates). The results revealed that the majority of respondents would endorse some local development; however, there was substantial variability in the upper level that was considered acceptable. Prominent predictors included general attitude, perceived knowledge of wind power, community attachment, environmental values, visual attractiveness of wind turbines, and issues relating to perceived fairness and equity. The results have implications for Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) - and in particular the assessment of Cumulative Landscape and Visual Impacts (CLVI) - and support calls for greater community involvement in decisions regarding proposed schemes. - Highlights: → Research seeks to identify predictors of the scale of local wind development people will tolerate. → Research conducted in region of the UK subject to nine wind-farm applications (2008). → Predictors found to include issues of perceived fairness and equity. → Results hold implications for cumulative effects assessment and development practices.

  20. When is enough, enough? Identifying predictors of capacity estimates for onshore wind-power development in a region of the UK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Christopher R., E-mail: c.r.jones@shef.ac.uk [Department of Psychology, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TP (United Kingdom); Orr, Barry J.; Eiser, J. Richard [Department of Psychology, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TP (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    The level of 'wind-prospecting' presently occurring in the UK is increasing the likelihood that new wind-power developments will conflict with other existing and/or proposed schemes. This study reports multiple-regression analyses performed on survey data obtained in a region of the UK (i.e. Humberhead Levels, near Doncaster) simultaneously subject to nine wind-farm proposals (September 2008). The aim of the analysis was to identify which survey-items were predictors of respondents' estimates of the number of wind turbines they believed the region could reasonably support (i.e. capacity estimates). The results revealed that the majority of respondents would endorse some local development; however, there was substantial variability in the upper level that was considered acceptable. Prominent predictors included general attitude, perceived knowledge of wind power, community attachment, environmental values, visual attractiveness of wind turbines, and issues relating to perceived fairness and equity. The results have implications for Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) - and in particular the assessment of Cumulative Landscape and Visual Impacts (CLVI) - and support calls for greater community involvement in decisions regarding proposed schemes. - Highlights: > Research seeks to identify predictors of the scale of local wind development people will tolerate. > Research conducted in region of the UK subject to nine wind-farm applications (2008). > Predictors found to include issues of perceived fairness and equity. > Results hold implications for cumulative effects assessment and development practices.

  1. A guide to developing resource selection functions from telemetry data using generalized estimating equations and generalized linear mixed models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Koper

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Resource selection functions (RSF are often developed using satellite (ARGOS or Global Positioning System (GPS telemetry datasets, which provide a large amount of highly correlated data. We discuss and compare the use of generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM and generalized estimating equations (GEE for using this type of data to develop RSFs. GLMMs directly model differences among caribou, while GEEs depend on an adjustment of the standard error to compensate for correlation of data points within individuals. Empirical standard errors, rather than model-based standard errors, must be used with either GLMMs or GEEs when developing RSFs. There are several important differences between these approaches; in particular, GLMMs are best for producing parameter estimates that predict how management might influence individuals, while GEEs are best for predicting how management might influence populations. As the interpretation, value, and statistical significance of both types of parameter estimates differ, it is important that users select the appropriate analytical method. We also outline the use of k-fold cross validation to assess fit of these models. Both GLMMs and GEEs hold promise for developing RSFs as long as they are used appropriately.

  2. Estimation of dynamic rotor loads for the rotor systems research aircraft: Methodology development and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, R. W.; Bahrami, M.

    1985-01-01

    The Rotor Systems Research Aircraft uses load cells to isolate the rotor/transmission systm from the fuselage. A mathematical model relating applied rotor loads and inertial loads of the rotor/transmission system to the load cell response is required to allow the load cells to be used to estimate rotor loads from flight data. Such a model is derived analytically by applying a force and moment balance to the isolated rotor/transmission system. The model is tested by comparing its estimated values of applied rotor loads with measured values obtained from a ground based shake test. Discrepancies in the comparison are used to isolate sources of unmodeled external loads. Once the structure of the mathematical model has been validated by comparison with experimental data, the parameters must be identified. Since the parameters may vary with flight condition it is desirable to identify the parameters directly from the flight data. A Maximum Likelihood identification algorithm is derived for this purpose and tested using a computer simulation of load cell data. The identification is found to converge within 10 samples. The rapid convergence facilitates tracking of time varying parameters of the load cell model in flight.

  3. Including Youth with Intellectual Disabilities in Health Promotion Research: Development and Reliability of a Structured Interview to Assess the Correlates of Physical Activity among Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtin, Carol; Bandini, Linda G.; Must, Aviva; Phillips, Sarah; Maslin, Melissa C. T.; Lo, Charmaine; Gleason, James M.; Fleming, Richard K.; Stanish, Heidi I.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The input of youth with intellectual disabilities in health promotion and health disparities research is essential for understanding their needs and preferences. Regular physical activity (PA) is vital for health and well-being, but levels are low in youth generally, including those with intellectual disabilities. Understanding the…

  4. Development of a low cost method to estimate the seismic signature of a geothermal field form ambient noise analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tibuleac, Ileana [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States)

    2016-06-30

    A new, cost effective and non-invasive exploration method using ambient seismic noise has been tested at Soda Lake, NV, with promising results. The material included in this report demonstrates that, with the advantage of initial S-velocity models estimated from ambient noise surface waves, the seismic reflection survey, although with lower resolution, reproduces the results of the active survey when the ambient seismic noise is not contaminated by strong cultural noise. Ambient noise resolution is less at depth (below 1000m) compared to the active survey. In general, the results are promising and useful information can be recovered from ambient seismic noise, including dipping features and fault locations.

  5. Canadian Estimate of Bird Mortality Due to Collisions and Direct Habitat Loss Associated with Wind Turbine Developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ryan. Zimmerling

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We estimated impacts on birds from the development and operation of wind turbines in Canada considering both mortality due to collisions and loss of nesting habitat. We estimated collision mortality using data from carcass searches for 43 wind farms, incorporating correction factors for scavenger removal, searcher efficiency, and carcasses that fell beyond the area searched. On average, 8.2 ± 1.4 birds (95% C.I. were killed per turbine per year at these sites, although the numbers at individual wind farms varied from 0 - 26.9 birds per turbine per year. Based on 2955 installed turbines (the number installed in Canada by December 2011, an estimated 23,300 birds (95% C.I. 20,000 - 28,300 would be killed from collisions with turbines each year. We estimated direct habitat loss based on data from 32 wind farms in Canada. On average, total habitat loss per turbine was 1.23 ha, which corresponds to an estimated total habitat loss due to wind farms nationwide of 3635 ha. Based on published estimates of nest density, this could represent habitat for ~5700 nests of all species. Assuming nearby habitats are saturated, and 2 adults displaced per nest site, effects of direct habitat loss are less than that of direct mortality. Installed wind capacity is growing rapidly, and is predicted to increase more than 10-fold over the next 10-15 years, which could lead to direct mortality of approximately 233,000 birds / year, and displacement of 57,000 pairs. Despite concerns about the impacts of biased correction factors on the accuracy of mortality estimates, these values are likely much lower than those from collisions with some other anthropogenic sources such as windows, vehicles, or towers, or habitat loss due to many other forms of development. Species composition data suggest that < 0.2% of the population of any species is currently affected by mortality or displacement from wind turbine development. Therefore, population level impacts are unlikely

  6. Development of loose part signal location estimating technique in high pressured structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rhee, Ill Keun; Choi, Jae Won; Kim, Yong Up; Kim, Taek Hwan; Song, Young Joong [Hannam University, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-07-01

    The main purpose of this project is to develop the metallic loose parts monitoring and diagnosis technology. This will contribute to the development of the domestic technology, and, at the some time, to the development of related domestic industries. This study has been performed as 3-year-project,= to provide to basic requirements in developing the integrated and intelligent loose part monitoring and diagnosis system for Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). The results from this project is expected to be applied to the development of the integrated and intelligent loose part monitoring and diagnosis system which can be used to analyze the main cause of the malfunctioning of the system under the worst circumstance - high temperature, high pressure and high speed of the flow of reactor coolant, with the efficient software package that could classify the characteristics of the metallic loose parts occurred inside the RPV of the nuclear steam supply system. (Author) 39 refs., 7 tabs., 74 figs.

  7. Development of new method and protocol for cryopreservation related to embryo and oocytes freezing in terms of fertilization rate: A comparative study including review of literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayadhar Barik

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: We ensure that cryopreservation technology provided useful cell survivability, tissue and organ preservation in a proper way. Although it varies according to different laboratory conditions, it is certainly beneficial for patient′s treatment and research. Further studies are needed for standardization and development of new protocol.

  8. Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate survival in patients with colorectal cancer: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate absolute and conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer. \\ud \\ud Design: Cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database linked to the national cancer registry.\\ud \\ud Participants: 44 145 patients aged 15-99 with colorectal cancer from 947 practices to derive the equations. The equations were validated in 15 214 patients with colorectal cancer ...

  9. Characteristic features of determining the labor input and estimated cost of the development and manufacture of equipment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurmanaliyev, T. I.; Breslavets, A. V.

    1974-01-01

    The difficulties in obtaining exact calculation data for the labor input and estimated cost are noted. The method of calculating the labor cost of the design work using the provisional normative indexes with respect to individual forms of operations is proposed. Values of certain coefficients recommended for use in the practical calculations of the labor input for the development of new scientific equipment for space research are presented.

  10. Development and Application of a Sensitive, Second Antibody Format Enzymeimmunoassay (EIA) for Estimation of Plasma FSH in Mithun (Bos frontalis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Mohan; Baruah, Kishore Kumar; Prakash, B S

    2016-01-01

    Mithun (Bos frontalis) is a semi-wild rare ruminant species. A simple sensitive enzymeimmunoassay suitable for assaying FSH in the blood plasma of mithun is not available which thereby limits our ability to understand this species reproductive processes. Therefore, the aim of this article was to develop a simple and sensitive enzymeimmunoassay (EIA) for estimation of FSH in mithun plasma and apply the assay to understand the estrous cycle and superovulatory process in this species. To accomplish this goal, biotinylated FSH was bridged between streptavidin-peroxidase and immobilized antiserum in a competitive assay. Forty microlitre mithun plasma was used directly in the EIA. The FSH standards were prepared in hormone free plasma and ranged from 5-1280 pg/well/40 μL. The sensitivity of EIA was 5 pg/well FSH, which corresponds to 0.125 ng/mL plasma and the 50% relative binding sensitivity was 90 pg/well/40 μL. Although the shape of the standard curve was not influenced by different plasma volumes viz. 40 and 80 μL, a slight drop in the OD450 was observed with the increasing volume of plasma. Parallelism tests conducted between the endogenous mithun FSH and bovine FSH standards showed good homology between them. Plasma FSH estimated using the developed EIA and commercially available FSH EIA kit in the same samples were correlated (r = 0.98) and showed linearity. Both the Intra- and inter-assay CV were below 6%. Recovery of known concentrations of added FSH showed linearity (r = 0.99). The developed EIA was further validated biologically by estimating FSH in cyclic cows for the entire estrous cycle, in mithun heifers administered with GnRH analogues and in mithun cows during superovulatory treatment with FSH. In conclusion, the EIA developed for FSH determination in mithun blood plasma is simple and highly sensitive for estimation of mithun FSH in all physiological conditions.

  11. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    OpenAIRE

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  12. Development of robust flexible OLED encapsulations using simulated estimations and experimental validations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang-Chun; Shih, Yan-Shin; Wu, Chih-Sheng; Tsai, Chia-Hao; Yeh, Shu-Tang; Peng, Yi-Hao; Chen, Kuang-Jung

    2012-01-01

    This work analyses the overall stress/strain characteristic of flexible encapsulations with organic light-emitting diode (OLED) devices. A robust methodology composed of a mechanical model of multi-thin film under bending loads and related stress simulations based on nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA) is proposed, and validated to be more reliable compared with related experimental data. With various geometrical combinations of cover plate, stacked thin films and plastic substrate, the position of the neutral axis (NA) plate, which is regarded as a key design parameter to minimize stress impact for the concerned OLED devices, is acquired using the present methodology. The results point out that both the thickness and mechanical properties of the cover plate help in determining the NA location. In addition, several concave and convex radii are applied to examine the reliable mechanical tolerance and to provide an insight into the estimated reliability of foldable OLED encapsulations. (paper)

  13. Development and validation of a Kalman filter-based model for vehicle slip angle estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadola, M.; Chindamo, D.; Romano, M.; Padula, F.

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that vehicle slip angle is one of the most difficult parameters to measure on a vehicle during testing or racing activities. Moreover, the appropriate sensor is very expensive and it is often difficult to fit to a car, especially on race cars. We propose here a strategy to eliminate the need for this sensor by using a mathematical tool which gives a good estimation of the vehicle slip angle. A single-track car model, coupled with an extended Kalman filter, was used in order to achieve the result. Moreover, a tuning procedure is proposed that takes into consideration both nonlinear and saturation characteristics typical of vehicle lateral dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm has been proven by both simulation results and real-world data.

  14. Development of Embedded EM Sensors for Estimating Tensile Forces of PSC Girder Bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ju-Won; Lee, Chaggil; Park, Seunghee

    2017-01-01

    The tensile force of pre-stressed concrete (PSC) girders is the most important factor for managing the stability of PSC bridges. The tensile force is induced using pre-stressing (PS) tendons of a PSC girder. Because the PS tendons are located inside of the PSC girder, the tensile force cannot be measured after construction using conventional NDT (non-destructive testing) methods. To monitor the induced tensile force of a PSC girder, an embedded EM (elasto-magnetic) sensor was proposed in this study. The PS tendons are made of carbon steel, a ferromagnetic material. The magnetic properties of the ferromagnetic specimen are changed according to the induced magnetic field, temperature, and induced stress. Thus, the tensile force of PS tendons can be estimated by measuring their magnetic properties. The EM sensor can measure the magnetic properties of ferromagnetic materials in the form of a B (magnetic density)-H (magnetic force) loop. To measure the B-H loop of a PS tendon in a PSC girder, the EM sensor should be embedded into the PSC girder. The proposed embedded EM sensor can be embedded into a PSC girder as a sheath joint by designing screw threads to connect with the sheath. To confirm the proposed embedded EM sensors, the experimental study was performed using a down-scaled PSC girder model. Two specimens were constructed with embedded EM sensors, and three sensors were installed in each specimen. The embedded EM sensor could measure the B-H loop of PS tendons even if it was located inside concrete, and the area of the B-H loop was proportionally decreased according to the increase in tensile force. According to the results, the proposed method can be used to estimate the tensile force of unrevealed PS tendons. PMID:28867790

  15. Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

    2011-05-01

    Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

  16. An International Comparison of Tax Assistance for Research and Development: Estimates and Policy Implication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Lester

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Business spending on research and development (R&D is generally recognized as a private activity providing broader economic benefits that justify government support. But subsidizing R&D has costs as well as benefits, and governments need to exercise judgement to ensure that subsidies are set at a level that results in a net economic benefit for society as a whole, not just for the recipients of the assistance. A key finding of the international comparison undertaken in this paper is that Canada and nine other of the 36 countries in the comparison group are providing R&D subsidies that are likely too high to generate a net economic benefit. Subsidy rates in this group of countries range from 25 to 45 per cent. The risk of excessive subsidization is confined to small firms in Canada, which receive a subsidy of almost 41 per cent through the tax system. Canada’s subsidy rate for small firms is the third highest, behind Chile and France. Other countries providing subsidy rates close to 40 per cent are Spain and India. This paper also assesses several design features of tax assistance measures, including enhanced benefits for small and young firms, refundability of benefits and incentives based on increases in R&D spending above a base level. While the best policy for R&D subsidies may be a uniform rate for all businesses regardless of age or size, the case for favouring young firms is somewhat stronger than for favouring all small firms. Focusing on young firms avoids providing benefits to small firms that are not growth-oriented; but, it is difficult to design a program that can be completely restricted to young firms since entrepreneurs would have an incentive to create new firms to avoid losing higher benefits. Even with this “leakage”, however, an age-dependent incentive could be more cost-effective than size-dependent enhanced benefits. There is a particularly strong case for providing refundability to young firms, which are unlikely to

  17. Radiochemical and biological studies, including in non-human primates, towards indigenous development of 153Sm-EDTMP for metastatic bone pain palliation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saraswathy, P.; Mehra, K.S.; Ranganatha, D.K.; Das, M.K.; Balasubramanian, P.S.; Ananthakrishnan, M.; Ramamoorthy, N.; Gunasekaran, S.; Shanthly, N.; Retna Ponmalar, J.; Narasimhan, S.

    2001-01-01

    The combination of ease of formulation and superior biological features of 153 Sm-EDTMP in terms of safety and efficacy for metastatic bone pain palliation, together with the prospect of better logistics of production, has prompted extensive efforts by many groups world over for its preparation and evaluation. Our efforts have been directed towards exploring the feasibility for formulation of 153 Sm-EDTMP suitable for human use by neutron activation in medium flux reactors of the freely available and inexpensive natural samarium oxide target. The emphasis in biological studies was placed on tests in larger animals (monkeys) as a prelude to clinical evaluation. Feasibility to achieve reasonably high specific activity of 300-700 mCi/mg Sm at EOB with natural samarium has been adequately demonstrated. The radioeuropium contamination, estimated by γ-spectrometry to be 153 Sm-EDTMP from natural samarium at high radioactive concentrations of 40-50 mCi 153 Sm/mL, acceptable biolocalization, as revealed by both biodistribution studies in rats (femur uptake of 2-3% injected dose at 1h p.i. and retention up to 120 h p.i.) and gamma camera images in monkeys and adequate stability have been feasible. Excellent quality bone images of monkeys were recorded showing rapid clearance from blood, visualization of skeleton, clearance from kidneys within 2 hours and retention in skeleton up to 116 hours p.i. No significant activity in other soft tissues was noted. Comparative evaluation of the product prepared from enriched samarium as well as using in-house synthesized EDTMP has, likewise, revealed identical biolocalization features. EDTMP dose tolerance test in mice showed a safety factor of about 100 for a product made from natural samarium at an adult human dose of 50 mCi 153 Sm. Feasibility for production, reasonable safety and satisfactory biolocalisation of the indigenous product has been adequately established so as to warrant clinical trials in patients. (author)

  18. DEVELOPMENT OF A PEDESTRIAN INDOOR NAVIGATION SYSTEM BASED ON MULTI-SENSOR FUSION AND FUZZY LOGIC ESTIMATION ALGORITHMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. C. Lai

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a pedestrian indoor navigation system based on the multi-sensor fusion and fuzzy logic estimation algorithms. The proposed navigation system is a self-contained dead reckoning navigation that means no other outside signal is demanded. In order to achieve the self-contained capability, a portable and wearable inertial measure unit (IMU has been developed. Its adopted sensors are the low-cost inertial sensors, accelerometer and gyroscope, based on the micro electro-mechanical system (MEMS. There are two types of the IMU modules, handheld and waist-mounted. The low-cost MEMS sensors suffer from various errors due to the results of manufacturing imperfections and other effects. Therefore, a sensor calibration procedure based on the scalar calibration and the least squares methods has been induced in this study to improve the accuracy of the inertial sensors. With the calibrated data acquired from the inertial sensors, the step length and strength of the pedestrian are estimated by multi-sensor fusion and fuzzy logic estimation algorithms. The developed multi-sensor fusion algorithm provides the amount of the walking steps and the strength of each steps in real-time. Consequently, the estimated walking amount and strength per step are taken into the proposed fuzzy logic estimation algorithm to estimates the step lengths of the user. Since the walking length and direction are both the required information of the dead reckoning navigation, the walking direction is calculated by integrating the angular rate acquired by the gyroscope of the developed IMU module. Both the walking length and direction are calculated on the IMU module and transmit to a smartphone with Bluetooth to perform the dead reckoning navigation which is run on a self-developed APP. Due to the error accumulating of dead reckoning navigation, a particle filter and a pre-loaded map of indoor environment have been applied to the APP of the proposed navigation system

  19. Development of a Pedestrian Indoor Navigation System Based on Multi-Sensor Fusion and Fuzzy Logic Estimation Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Y. C.; Chang, C. C.; Tsai, C. M.; Lin, S. Y.; Huang, S. C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper presents a pedestrian indoor navigation system based on the multi-sensor fusion and fuzzy logic estimation algorithms. The proposed navigation system is a self-contained dead reckoning navigation that means no other outside signal is demanded. In order to achieve the self-contained capability, a portable and wearable inertial measure unit (IMU) has been developed. Its adopted sensors are the low-cost inertial sensors, accelerometer and gyroscope, based on the micro electro-mechanical system (MEMS). There are two types of the IMU modules, handheld and waist-mounted. The low-cost MEMS sensors suffer from various errors due to the results of manufacturing imperfections and other effects. Therefore, a sensor calibration procedure based on the scalar calibration and the least squares methods has been induced in this study to improve the accuracy of the inertial sensors. With the calibrated data acquired from the inertial sensors, the step length and strength of the pedestrian are estimated by multi-sensor fusion and fuzzy logic estimation algorithms. The developed multi-sensor fusion algorithm provides the amount of the walking steps and the strength of each steps in real-time. Consequently, the estimated walking amount and strength per step are taken into the proposed fuzzy logic estimation algorithm to estimates the step lengths of the user. Since the walking length and direction are both the required information of the dead reckoning navigation, the walking direction is calculated by integrating the angular rate acquired by the gyroscope of the developed IMU module. Both the walking length and direction are calculated on the IMU module and transmit to a smartphone with Bluetooth to perform the dead reckoning navigation which is run on a self-developed APP. Due to the error accumulating of dead reckoning navigation, a particle filter and a pre-loaded map of indoor environment have been applied to the APP of the proposed navigation system to extend its

  20. Development of Instrumentation for Direct Validation of Regional Carbon Flux Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We are pursuing three tasks under internal research and development: 1) procure a state-of-the-art, commercial instrument for measuring atmospheric methane (CH4) in...

  1. Development of best estimate auditing code for CANDU thermal hydraulic safety analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, B. D.; Lee, W. J.; Lim, H. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-03-15

    The main purpose of this study is to develop a thermal hydraulic auditing code for the CANDU reactor, modifying the model if existing PWR auditing tool, i.e. RELAP5/MOD3. This scope of project is a third step of the whole project, and expand the RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU version for implementation of LOCA analysis. There are three main area of model development, i.e. moody critical flow model, flow regime model of horizontal CANDU bundle, and fuel element heatup model when the stratification occurs. Newly developed version, namely RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU+ is applicable to CANDU plant analysis with keeping the function of light water reactor analysis. The limited validations of model installation were performed. Assessment of CHF model using AECL separated effect test and calculation for Wolsong 2 plant were performed also for the applicability test of the developed version.

  2. Development of a best estimate auditing code for CANDU thermal hydraulic safety analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, B.D.; Lee, W.J.; Lim, H.S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-03-01

    The main purpose of this study is to develop a thermal hydraulic auditing code for the CANDU reactor, modifying the model of existing PWR auditing tool , i.e. RELAP5/MOD3. This scope of project is a third step of the whole project, and expand the RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU version for implementation of LOCA Analysis. There are three main area of model development, i.e. Moody critical flow model, flow regime model of horizontal CANDU bundle, and fuel element heatup model when the stratification occurs. Newly developed version, namely RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU+ is applicable to CANDU plant analysis with keeping the function of light water reactor analysis. The limited validations of model installation were performed. Assessment of CHF model using AECL separated effect test and calculation for Wolsong 2 plant were performed also for the applicability test of the developed version. 15 refs., 37 figs., 8 tabs. (Author)

  3. Computed statistics at streamgages, and methods for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and development of regional regression equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southard, Rodney E.

    2013-01-01

    located in Region 1, 120 were located in Region 2, and 10 were located in Region 3. Streamgages located outside of Missouri were selected to extend the range of data used for the independent variables in the regression analyses. Streamgages included in the regression analyses had 10 or more years of record and were considered to be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities or trends. Regional regression analyses identified three characteristics as statistically significant for the development of regional equations. For Region 1, drainage area, longest flow path, and streamflow-variability index were statistically significant. The range in the standard error of estimate for Region 1 is 79.6 to 94.2 percent. For Region 2, drainage area and streamflow variability index were statistically significant, and the range in the standard error of estimate is 48.2 to 72.1 percent. For Region 3, drainage area and streamflow-variability index also were statistically significant with a range in the standard error of estimate of 48.1 to 96.2 percent. Limitations on the use of estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations are dependent on the method used. The first method outlined for use in Missouri, power curve equations, were developed to estimate the selected statistics for ungaged locations on 28 selected streams with multiple streamgages located on the same stream. A second method uses a drainage-area ratio to compute statistics at an ungaged location using data from a single streamgage on the same stream with 10 or more years of record. Ungaged locations on these streams may use the ratio of the drainage area at an ungaged location to the drainage area at a streamgage location to scale the selected statistic value from the streamgage location to the ungaged location. This method can be used if the drainage area of the ungaged location is within 40 to 150 percent of the streamgage drainage area. The third method is the use of the regional regression equations

  4. Development of a 2-h suicide prevention program for medical staff including nurses and medical residents: A two-center pilot trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagami, Yukako; Kubo, Hiroaki; Katsuki, Ryoko; Sakai, Tomomichi; Sugihara, Genichi; Naito, Chisako; Oda, Hiroyuki; Hayakawa, Kohei; Suzuki, Yuriko; Fujisawa, Daisuke; Hashimoto, Naoki; Kobara, Keiji; Cho, Tetsuji; Kuga, Hironori; Takao, Kiyoshi; Kawahara, Yoko; Matsumura, Yumi; Murai, Toshiya; Akashi, Koichi; Kanba, Shigenobu; Otsuka, Kotaro; Kato, Takahiro A

    2018-01-01

    Suicide is a crucial global health concern and effective suicide prevention has long been warranted. Mental illness, especially depression is the highest risk factor of suicide. Suicidal risk is increased in people not only with mental illness but also with physical illnesses, thus medical staff caring for physically-ill patients are also required to manage people with suicidal risk. In the present study, we evaluated our newly developed suicide intervention program among medical staff. We developed a 2-h suicide intervention program for medical staff, based on the Mental Health First Aid (MHFA), which had originally been developed for the general population. We conducted this program for 74 medical staff members from 2 hospitals. Changes in knowledge, perceived skills, and confidence in early intervention of depression and suicide-prevention were evaluated using self-reported questionnaires at 3 points; pre-program, immediately after the program, and 1 month after program. This suicide prevention program had significant effects on improving perceived skills and confidence especially among nurses and medical residents. These significant effects lasted even 1 month after the program. Design was a single-arm study with relatively small sample size and short-term follow up. The present study suggests that the major target of this effective program is nurses and medical residents. Future research is required to validate the effects of the program with control groups, and also to assess long-term effectiveness and actual reduction in suicide rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Expression patterns of DLK1 and INSL3 identify stages of Leydig cell differentiation during normal development and in testicular pathologies, including testicular cancer and Klinefelter syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lottrup, G; Nielsen, J E; Maroun, L L

    2014-01-01

    , and in the majority of LCs, it was mutually exclusive of DLK1. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The number of samples was relatively small and no true normal adult controls were available. True stereology was not used for LC counting, instead LCs were counted in three fields of 0.5 µm(2) surface for each sample...... in adult men with testicular pathologies including testis cancer and Klinefelter syndrome. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This work was funded by Rigshospitalet's research funds, the Danish Cancer Society and Kirsten and Freddy Johansen's foundation. The authors have no conflicts of interest....

  6. Water quality studied in areas of unconventional oil and gas development, including areas where hydraulic fracturing techniques are used, in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susong, David D.; Gallegos, Tanya J.; Oelsner, Gretchen P.

    2012-01-01

    Domestic oil and gas production and clean water are critical for economic growth, public health, and national security of the United States. As domestic oil and gas production increases in new areas and old fields are enhanced, there is increasing public concern about the effects of energy production on surface-water and groundwater quality. To a great extent, this concern arises from the improved hydraulic fracturing techniques being used today, including horizontal drilling, for producing unconventional oil and gas in low-permeability formations.

  7. A 30 m Resolution Surface Water Mask Including Estimation of Positional and Thematic Differences Using Landsat 8, SRTM and OpenStreetMap: A Case Study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gennadii Donchyts

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate maps of surface water are essential for many environmental applications. Surface water maps can be generated by combining measurements from multiple sources. Precise estimation of surface water using satellite imagery remains a challenging task due to the sensor limitations, complex land cover, topography, and atmospheric conditions. As a complementary dataset, in the case of hilly landscapes, a drainage network can be extracted from high-resolution digital elevation models. Additionally, Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI initiatives, such as OpenStreetMap, can also be used to produce high-resolution surface water masks. In this study, we derive a high-resolution water mask using Landsat 8 imagery and OpenStreetMap as well as (potential a drainage network using 30 m SRTM. Our approach to derive a surface water mask from Landsat 8 imagery comprises the use of a lower 15% percentile of Landsat 8 Top of Atmosphere (TOA reflectance from 2013 to 2015. We introduce a new non-parametric unsupervised method based on the Canny edge filter and Otsu thresholding to detect water in flat areas. For hilly areas, the method is extended with an additional supervised classification step used to refine the water mask. We applied the method across the Murray-Darling basin, Australia. Differences between our new Landsat-based water mask and the OpenStreetMap water mask regarding positional differences along the rivers and overall coverage were analyzed. Our results show that about 50% of the OpenStreetMap linear water features can be confirmed using the water mask extracted from Landsat 8 imagery and the drainage network derived from SRTM. We also show that the observed distances between river features derived from OpenStreetMap and Landsat 8 are mostly smaller than 60 m. The differences between the new water mask and SRTM-based linear features and hilly areas are slightly larger (110 m. The overall agreement between OpenStreetMap and Landsat 8 water

  8. Using the Estimating Supplies Program to Develop Materiel Solutions for the U.S. Air Force Aeromedical Evacuation In-Flight Kit (FFQDM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hopkins, Curtis; Nix, Ralph; Pang, Gerry; Konoske, Paula

    2008-01-01

    ... NHRC's medical modeling tool the Estimating Supplies Program (ESP) for the development and management of Air Force medical Allowance Standards as a baseline for standardization throughout the services...

  9. Estimating Groundwater Development area in Jianan Plain using Standardized Groundwater Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Chang Hsiang; Haw, Lee Cheng

    2017-04-01

    Taiwan has been facing severe water crises in recent years owing to the effects of extreme weather conditions. Changes in precipitation patterns have also made the drought phenomenon increasingly prominent, which has indirectly affected groundwater recharge. Hence, in the present study, long-term monitoring data were collected from the study area of the Jianan plain. The standardized groundwater index (SGI) and was then used to analyse the region's drought characteristics. To analyse the groundwater level by using SGI, making SGI180 groundwater level be the medium water crises, and SGI360 groundwater level be the extreme water crises. Through the different water crises signal in SGI180 and SGI360, we divide groundwater in Jianan plain into two sections. Thereby the water crises indicators establishing groundwater level standard line in Jianan Plain, then using the groundwater level standard line to find the study area where could be groundwater development area in Jianan plain. Taking into account relatively more water scarcity in dry season, so the study screen out another emergency backup groundwater development area, but the long-term groundwater development area is still as a priority development area. After finding suitable locations, groundwater modeling systems(GMS) software is used to simulate our sites to evaluate development volume. Finally, the result of study will help the government to grasp the water shortage situation immediately and solve the problem of water resources deployment.

  10. Estimation of the largest enterprises’ impact on the socio-economic development of territories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Dmitrievna Razgulina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The key basic trends of modern society development are associated with the transfer of some government functions to big business. Thus, scientific and public circles argue about social partnership between government, business and employees and offer different variants of the corporate social responsibility concept. The article presents the experience to assess social responsibility of business on the example of the largest chemical enterprises located in the Vologda and Novgorod oblasts. The evaluation results have revealed a number of problems hindering the formation of socially responsible behavior of enterprises, particularly the lack of standardized reporting on corporate social responsibility; provision of formal corporate social responsibility report; business’ non-system participation in social and economic development of territories. According to the authors, the development of a special model to regulate participants’ mutual relations can increase social responsibility of Russian business. Unified interests and resources of business and government promote the development of an agreed strategy in the field of regional social-economic development

  11. Planned development and evaluation protocol of two versions of a web-based computer-tailored nutrition education intervention aimed at adults, including cognitive and environmental feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springvloet, Linda; Lechner, Lilian; Oenema, Anke

    2014-01-17

    Despite decades of nutrition education, the prevalence of unhealthy dietary patterns is still high and inequalities in intake between high and low socioeconomic groups still exist. Therefore, it is important to innovate and improve existing nutrition education interventions. This paper describes the development, design and evaluation protocol of a web-based computer-tailored nutrition education intervention for adults targeting fruit, vegetable, high-energy snack and fat intake. This intervention innovates existing computer-tailored interventions by not only targeting motivational factors, but also volitional and self-regulation processes and environmental-level factors. The intervention development was guided by the Intervention Mapping protocol, ensuring a theory-informed and evidence-based intervention. Two versions of the intervention were developed: a basic version targeting knowledge, awareness, attitude, self-efficacy and volitional and self-regulation processes, and a plus version additionally addressing the home environment arrangement and the availability and price of healthy food products in supermarkets. Both versions consist of four modules: one for each dietary behavior, i.e. fruit, vegetables, high-energy snacks and fat. Based on the self-regulation phases, each module is divided into three sessions. In the first session, feedback on dietary behavior is provided to increase awareness, feedback on attitude and self-efficacy is provided and goals and action plans are stated. In the second session goal achievement is evaluated, reasons for failure are explored, coping plans are stated and goals can be adapted. In the third session, participants can again evaluate their behavioral change and tips for maintenance are provided. Both versions will be evaluated in a three-group randomized controlled trial with measurements at baseline, 1-month, 4-months and 9-months post-intervention, using online questionnaires. Both versions will be compared with a generic

  12. 77 FR 14716 - Notice of Availability: Draft Documents Related to the Development of Emissions Estimating...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-13

    ..., Tyson Foods, Inc. collected data from two broiler sites, which are also included in the NAEMS dataset... ), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). For lagoons and basins, the study was designed to collect NH 3... draft documents describe the sites monitored, the statistical methodology used to analyze the data, and...

  13. Development of pollution reduction strategies for Mexico City: Estimating cost and ozone reduction effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thayer, G.R.; Hardie, R.W.; Barrera-Roldan, A.

    1993-01-01

    This reports on the collection and preparation of data (costs and air quality improvement) for the strategic evaluation portion of the Mexico City Air Quality Research Initiative (MARI). Reports written for the Mexico City government by various international organizations were used to identify proposed options along with estimates of cost and emission reductions. Information from appropriate options identified by SCAQMD for Southem California were also used in the analysis. A linear optimization method was used to select a group of options or a strategy to be evaluated by decision analysis. However, the reduction of ozone levels is not a linear function of the reduction of hydrocarbon and NO x emissions. Therefore, a more detailed analysis was required for ozone. An equation for a plane on an isopleth calculated with a trajectory model was obtained using two endpoints that bracket the expected total ozone precursor reductions plus the starting concentrations for hydrocarbons and NO x . The relationship between ozone levels and the hydrocarbon and NO x concentrations was assumed to lie on this plane. This relationship was used in the linear optimization program to select the options comprising a strategy

  14. Development of a framework to estimate human error for diagnosis tasks in advanced control room

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ar Ryum; Jang, In Seok; Seong, Proong Hyun

    2014-01-01

    In the emergency situation of nuclear power plants (NPPs), a diagnosis of the occurring events is crucial for managing or controlling the plant to a safe and stable condition. If the operators fail to diagnose the occurring events or relevant situations, their responses can eventually inappropriate or inadequate Accordingly, huge researches have been performed to identify the cause of diagnosis error and estimate the probability of diagnosis error. D.I Gertman et al. asserted that 'the cognitive failures stem from erroneous decision-making, poor understanding of rules and procedures, and inadequate problem solving and this failures may be due to quality of data and people's capacity for processing information'. Also many researchers have asserted that human-system interface (HSI), procedure, training and available time are critical factors to cause diagnosis error. In nuclear power plants, a diagnosis of the event is critical for safe condition of the system. As advanced main control room is being adopted in nuclear power plants, the operators may obtain the plant data via computer-based HSI and procedure. Also many researchers have asserted that HSI, procedure, training and available time are critical factors to cause diagnosis error. In this regards, using simulation data, diagnosis errors and its causes were identified. From this study, some useful insights to reduce diagnosis errors of operators in advanced main control room were provided

  15. Estimating greenhouse gas emissions using emission factors from the Sugarcane Development Company, Ahvaz, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Zahedi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions are increasing worldwide. They have harmful effects on human health, animals, and plants and play a major role in global warming and acid rain. Methods: This research investigated carbon dioxide (CO2 and CH4 emissions obtained from different parts of the Hakim Farabi, Dobal Khazaei, and Ramin factories which produce ethanol and yeast. Seasonal rates of CO2 at the soil surface at the studied sites were estimated from measurements made on location and at intervals with manual chambers. This study aimed to assess the production rate of GHG emissions (CH4, CO2 in the sugar production units of Hakim Farabi, Dobal Khazaei, and Ramin factories. Results: Mean concentrations of CO2 and CH4 emissions are respectively 279 500.207 and 3087.07 tons/ year from the Hakim Farabi agro-industry, 106 985.24 and 1.14 tons/year at the Dobal Khazaei ethanol producing factory, and 124 766.17 and 1.93 tons/year at the Ramin leavening producing factory. Conclusion: Sugar plant boilers and the burning of sugarcane contributed the most CO2 and CH4 emissions, respectively. Moreover, lime kilns and diesel generators showed the least carbon dioxide and methane emissions, respectively.

  16. Development of new estimation method for CO2 evolved from oil shale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, S.; Enomoto, M.

    1997-01-01

    The quality of fossil fuels tends to be evaluated by amounts of CO 2 emissions. For the evaluation of an oil shale from this point, an on-line thermogravimetric-gas chromatographic system was used to measure CO 2 evolution profiles on temperature with a small oil shale sample. This method makes it possible to estimate the amounts of CO 2 evolved from kerogen and carbonates in retorting and those from carbonates in combustion, respectively. These results will be basic data for a novel oil shale retorting process for the control of CO 2 emissions. The profiles for Thai and Colorado oil shales have shown CO 2 mainly evolved by the pyrolysis of kerogen below 550 degree C, and that evolved by the decomposition of carbonates above that temperature. On the other hand, the profile for Condor oil shale showed that most carbonates decomposed below 550 degree C, while only small amounts of carbonates decomposed above this temperature. 14 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  17. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (Page and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Development of Quadratic Programming Algorithm Based on Interior Point Method with Estimation Mechanism of Active Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, Hiroyuki; Takaguchi, Yusuke; Nakamura, Shizuka

    Instability of calculation process and increase of calculation time caused by increasing size of continuous optimization problem remain the major issues to be solved to apply the technique to practical industrial systems. This paper proposes an enhanced quadratic programming algorithm based on interior point method mainly for improvement of calculation stability. The proposed method has dynamic estimation mechanism of active constraints on variables, which fixes the variables getting closer to the upper/lower limit on them and afterwards releases the fixed ones as needed during the optimization process. It is considered as algorithm-level integration of the solution strategy of active-set method into the interior point method framework. We describe some numerical results on commonly-used bench-mark problems called “CUTEr” to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, the test results on large-sized ELD problem (Economic Load Dispatching problems in electric power supply scheduling) are also described as a practical industrial application.

  19. Development and Assessment of CFD Models Including a Supplemental Program Code for Analyzing Buoyancy-Driven Flows Through BWR Fuel Assemblies in SFP Complete LOCA Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artnak, Edward Joseph, III

    This work seeks to illustrate the potential benefits afforded by implementing aspects of fluid dynamics, especially the latest computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling approach, through numerical experimentation and the traditional discipline of physical experimentation to improve the calibration of the severe reactor accident analysis code, MELCOR, in one of several spent fuel pool (SFP) complete loss-ofcoolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. While the scope of experimental work performed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) extends well beyond that which is