WorldWideScience

Sample records for include developing estimates

  1. Distributed soil loss estimation system including ephemeral gully development and tillage erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. N. Vieira

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available A new modelling system is being developed to provide spatially-distributed runoff and soil erosion predictions for conservation planning that integrates the 2D grid-based variant of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, version 2 model (RUSLER, the Ephemeral Gully Erosion Estimator (EphGEE, and the Tillage Erosion and Landscape Evolution Model (TELEM. Digital representations of the area of interest (field, farm or entire watershed are created using high-resolution topography and data retrieved from established databases of soil properties, climate, and agricultural operations. The system utilizes a library of processing tools (LibRaster to deduce surface drainage from topography, determine the location of potential ephemeral gullies, and subdivide the study area into catchments for calculations of runoff and sheet-and-rill erosion using RUSLER. EphGEE computes gully evolution based on local soil erodibility and flow and sediment transport conditions. Annual tillage-induced morphological changes are computed separately by TELEM.

  2. Dental Age Estimation (DAE): Data management for tooth development stages including the third molar. Appropriate censoring of Stage H, the final stage of tooth development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Graham J; McDonald, Fraser; Andiappan, Manoharan; Lucas, Victoria S

    2015-11-01

    The final stage of dental development of third molars is usually helpful to indicate whether or not a subject is aged over 18 years. A complexity is that the final stage of development is unlimited in its upper border. Investigators usually select an inappropriate upper age limit or censor point for this tooth development stage. The literature was searched for appropriate data sets for dental age estimation and those that provided the count (n), the mean (x¯), and the standard deviation (sd) for each of the tooth development stages. The Demirjian G and Demirjian H were used for this study. Upper and lower limits of the Stage G and Stage H data were calculated limiting the data to plus or minus three standard deviations from the mean. The upper border of Stage H was limited by appropriate censoring at the maximum value for Stage G. The maximum age at attainment from published data, for Stage H, ranged from 22.60 years to 34.50 years. These data were explored to demonstrate how censoring provides an estimate for the correct maximum age for the final stage of Stage H as 21.64 years for UK Caucasians. This study shows that confining the data array of individual tooth developments stages to ± 3sd provides a reliable and logical way of censoring the data for tooth development stages with a Normal distribution of data. For Stage H this is inappropriate as it is unbounded in its upper limit. The use of a censored data array for Stage H using Percentile values is appropriate. This increases the reliability of using third molar Stage H alone to determine whether or not an individual is over 18 years old. For Stage H, individual ancestral groups should be censored using the same technique. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  3. Grazing capacity estimates: why include biomass estimates from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Forage for ruminants in the dry season were assessed and matched with feed requirements in three villages in Zimbabwe, namely; Chiweshe, Makande and Mudzimu. Stocking rates were compared with grazing capacity to determine grazing intensities. Grazing capacities were estimated with and without crop residues to ...

  4. Development of a kinetic model, including rate constant estimations, on iodine and caesium behaviour in the primary circuit of LWR's under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Buron, J.M.; Fernandez, S.

    1991-07-01

    In this report, a kinetic model has been developed with the aim to try to reproduce the chemical phenomena that take place in a flowing system containing steam, hydrogen and iodine and caesium vapours. The work is divided into two different parts. The first part consists in the estimation, through the Activited Complex Theory, of the reaction rate constants, for the chosen reactions, and the development of the kinetic model based on the concept of ideal tubular chemical reactor. The second part deals with the application of such model to several cases, which were taken from the Phase B 'Scoping Calculations' of the Phebus-FP Project (sequence AB) and the SFD-ST and SFD1.1 experiments. The main conclusion obtained from this work is that the assumption of instantaneous equilibrium could be inacurrate in order to estimate the iodine and caesium species distribution under severe accidents conditions

  5. Including estimates of the future in today's financial statements

    OpenAIRE

    Mary Barth

    2006-01-01

    This paper explains why the question is how, not if, today's financial statements should include estimates of the future. Including such estimates is not new, but their use is increasing. This increase results primarily because standard setters believe asset and liability measures that reflect current economic conditions and up-to-date expectations of the future will result in more useful information for making economic decisions, which is the objective of financial reporting. This is why sta...

  6. Nuclear data evaluation methodology including estimates of covariances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith D.L.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluated nuclear data rather than raw experimental and theoretical information are employed in nuclear applications such as the design of nuclear energy systems. Therefore, the process by which such information is produced and ultimately used is of critical interest to the nuclear science community. This paper provides an overview of various contemporary methods employed to generate evaluated cross sections and related physical quantities such as particle emission angular distributions and energy spectra. The emphasis here is on data associated with neutron induced reaction processes, with consideration of the uncertainties in these data, and on the more recent evaluation methods, e.g., those that are based on stochastic (Monte Carlo techniques. There is no unique way to perform such evaluations, nor are nuclear data evaluators united in their opinions as to which methods are superior to the others in various circumstances. In some cases it is not critical which approaches are used as long as there is consistency and proper use is made of the available physical information. However, in other instances there are definite advantages to using particular methods as opposed to other options. Some of these distinctions are discussed in this paper and suggestions are offered regarding fruitful areas for future research in the development of evaluation methodology.

  7. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology, including advanced validation concepts, to license evolving nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, C.; Williams, B.; Hemez, F.; Atamturktur, S.H.; McClure, P.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology (BEPU) is one option in the licensing of nuclear reactors. → The challenges for extending the BEPU method for fuel qualification for an advanced reactor fuel are primarily driven by schedule, the need for data, and the sufficiency of the data. → In this paper we develop an extended BEPU methodology that can potentially be used to address these new challenges in the design and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. → The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. → The methodology includes a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to existing data, so that required new testing can be minimized, saving cost by demonstrating that further testing will not enhance the quality of the predictive tools. - Abstract: Many evolving nuclear energy technologies use advanced predictive multiscale, multiphysics modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities to reduce the cost and schedule of design and licensing. Historically, the role of experiments has been as a primary tool for the design and understanding of nuclear system behavior, while M and S played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multiscale, multiphysics computational-based technology development, this role has been reversed. The experiments will still be needed, but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate the models leading to predictive simulations for design and licensing. Minimizing the required number of validation experiments produces cost and time savings. The use of multiscale, multiphysics models introduces challenges in validating these predictive tools - traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these challenges. This paper gives the basic aspects of a methodology that can potentially be used to address these new challenges in

  8. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Williams, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mc Clure, Patrick [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nelson, Ralph A [IDAHO NATIONAL LAB

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost

  9. Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unal, Cetin; Williams, Brian; McClure, Patrick; Nelson, Ralph A.

    2010-01-01

    Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M and S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for

  10. State Estimates of the Northern Philippine Sea Circulation Including Ocean Acoustic Travel Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornuelle, B. D.; Gopalakrishnan, G.; Mazloff, M. R.; Worcester, P. F.; Dzieciuch, M. A.

    2016-02-01

    The North Pacific Acoustic Laboratory (NPAL) Philippine Sea experiment deployed a variety of instruments in the northern Philippine Sea during April 2010 through April 2011, including 6 acoustic transceivers for reciprocal measurements of travel times between instruments. Five of the transceivers were moored in a pentagon approximately 660 km in diameter with the sixth transceiver mooring in the center. A seventh mooring approximately 130 km northwest of the center supported a Distributed Vertical Line Array (DVLA) which carried 149 acoustic receivers with thermistors covering the depths between 200 m and 5500 m. The goals of the experiment included studying the energetic westward-propagating eddies which travel through the region, their effect on underwater sound propagation, and the impact of acoustic measurements on estimates of the time-evolving ocean state. Observed travel-time time series were compared with travel times computed from ocean state estimates made using an eddy-active regional implementation of the MITgcm that were constrained by satellite sea surface height and sea surface temperature observations and by temperature and salinity profiles from Argo, CTDs, and XBTs but not by the acoustic data. The similarities cross-validate the state estimates, while the differences provide a simple estimate of the novel information present in the travel times. The ocean state estimates were then re-computed to fit the acoustic travel times as integrals of the sound speed, and therefore temperature and salinity, along the ray paths. Over the approximately 1 year experiment, the state estimate was able to match the travel times within their error bars and did not significantly increase the misfits with the other observations. Comparisons of the state estimates with and without the travel-time data showed significant changes to the temperature and salinity were made to fit the acoustic observations. The state estimates using the acoustic data compare favorably

  11. Cost estimating relationships for coal conversion process units. Volume 1. Technical report. [Includes in some cases dependence on capacity and data references from which estimates were derived

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodson, E.N.; Carden, H.W.; Curtis, R.L.; Heidler, L.M.; Roppel, J.D.

    1981-04-01

    Cost estimating relationships for commercial-scale coal conversion process units are developed in this study. The specific units include: coal preparation, oxygen plant, gasification, shift conversion, acid gas/CO/sub 2/ removal, sulfur recovery, and the dissolver. Also set forth is a detailed Cost Chart of Accounts, together with a discussion of cost analysis procedures and problems.

  12. Estimating software development project size, using probabilistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Probabilistic approach was used to estimate the software project size, using the data collected when we developed a tool to estimate the time to complete a new software project, and from The University of Calabar Computer Centre. The Expected size of the Tool was estimated to be 1.463 KSLOC, but when the tool was ...

  13. Development of Numerical Estimation in Young Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.; Booth, Julie L.

    2004-01-01

    Two experiments examined kindergartners', first graders', and second graders' numerical estimation, the internal representations that gave rise to the estimates, and the general hypothesis that developmental sequences within a domain tend to repeat themselves in new contexts. Development of estimation in this age range on 0-to-100 number lines…

  14. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-01-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  15. A Reformed CDM - including new mechanisms for sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holm Olsen, K.; Fenhann, J.

    2009-07-01

    The annual CD4CDM Perspectives Series features a topic of pivotal importance to the global carbon market. The series seeks to communicate the diverse insights and visions of leading actors in the carbon market to better inform the decisions of professionals and policymakers in developing countries. The second theme of the series focuses on how the CDM can be reformed in a post-2012 climate regime, including new mechanism for sustainable development. Seventeen contributors from the private sector, Designated National Authorities, the Executive Board, research, and development agencies present their perspective on meeting challenges such as the unequal regional distribution of CDM projects, concerns about environmental integrity and technology transfer, complex governance procedures, and questions about the CDM's contribution to sustainable development. The new ideas and solutions to these challenges proposed by the authors in this edition of Perspectives have been solicited to help professionals and policy makers make the best decisions in the lead-up to COP 15 in Copenhagen and beyond. (au)

  16. The dosimetric impact of including the patient table in CT dose estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowik, Patrik; Bujila, Robert; Kull, Love; Andersson, Jonas; Poludniowski, Gavin

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the dosimetric impact of including the patient table in Monte Carlo CT dose estimates for both spiral scans and scan projection radiographs (SPR). CT scan acquisitions were simulated for a Siemens SOMATOM Force scanner (Siemens Healthineers, Forchheim, Germany) with and without a patient table present. An adult male, an adult female and a pediatric female voxelized phantom were simulated. The simulated scans included tube voltages of 80 and 120 kVp. Spiral scans simulated without a patient table resulted in effective doses that were overestimated by approximately 5% compared to the same simulations performed with the patient table present. Doses in selected individual organs (breast, colon, lung, red bone marrow and stomach) were overestimated by up to 8%. Effective doses from SPR acquired with the x-ray tube stationary at 6 o’clock (posterior-anterior) were overestimated by 14-23% when the patient table was not included, with individual organ dose discrepancies (breast, colon, lung red bone marrow and stomach) all exceeding 13%. The reference entrance skin dose to the back were in this situation overestimated by 6-15%. These results highlight the importance of including the patient table in patient dose estimates for such scan situations.

  17. Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hihn, Jairus M.; Menzies, Tim

    2006-01-01

    Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

  18. Integrated Reliability Estimation of a Nuclear Maintenance Robot including a Software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, Heung Seop; Kim, Jae Hee; Jeong, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    Conventional reliability estimation techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), Markov Model, and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) have been used widely and approved in some industries. Then there are some limitations when we use them for a complicate robot systems including software such as intelligent reactor inspection robots. Therefore an expert's judgment plays an important role in estimating the reliability of a complicate system in practice, because experts can deal with diverse evidence related to the reliability and then perform an inference based on them. The proposed method in this paper combines qualitative and quantitative evidences and performs an inference like experts. Furthermore, it does the work in a formal and in a quantitative way unlike human experts, by the benefits of Bayesian Nets (BNs)

  19. Development of realtime cognitive state estimator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Makoto; Kitamura, Masashi; Yoshikaea, Hidekazu

    2004-01-01

    The realtime cognitive state estimator based on the set of physiological measures has been developed in order to provide valuable information on the human behavior during the interaction through the Man-Machine Interface. The artificial neural network has been adopted to categorize the cognitive states by using the qualitative physiological data pattern as the inputs. The laboratory experiments, in which the subjects' cognitive states were intentionally controlled by the task presented, were performed to obtain training data sets for the neural network. The developed system has been shown to be capable of estimating cognitive state with higher accuracy and realtime estimation capability has also been confirmed through the data processing experiments. (author)

  20. EVAPORATION: a new vapour pressure estimation methodfor organic molecules including non-additivity and intramolecular interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compernolle, S.; Ceulemans, K.; Müller, J.-F.

    2011-09-01

    We present EVAPORATION (Estimation of VApour Pressure of ORganics, Accounting for Temperature, Intramolecular, and Non-additivity effects), a method to predict (subcooled) liquid pure compound vapour pressure p0 of organic molecules that requires only molecular structure as input. The method is applicable to zero-, mono- and polyfunctional molecules. A simple formula to describe log10p0(T) is employed, that takes into account both a wide temperature dependence and the non-additivity of functional groups. In order to match the recent data on functionalised diacids an empirical modification to the method was introduced. Contributions due to carbon skeleton, functional groups, and intramolecular interaction between groups are included. Molecules typically originating from oxidation of biogenic molecules are within the scope of this method: aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, ethers, esters, nitrates, acids, peroxides, hydroperoxides, peroxy acyl nitrates and peracids. Therefore the method is especially suited to describe compounds forming secondary organic aerosol (SOA).

  1. Comparison of some biased estimation methods (including ordinary subset regression) in the linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidik, S. M.

    1975-01-01

    Ridge, Marquardt's generalized inverse, shrunken, and principal components estimators are discussed in terms of the objectives of point estimation of parameters, estimation of the predictive regression function, and hypothesis testing. It is found that as the normal equations approach singularity, more consideration must be given to estimable functions of the parameters as opposed to estimation of the full parameter vector; that biased estimators all introduce constraints on the parameter space; that adoption of mean squared error as a criterion of goodness should be independent of the degree of singularity; and that ordinary least-squares subset regression is the best overall method.

  2. Cognitive Development Includes Global and Domain-Specific Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kail, Robert V.

    2004-01-01

    Global accounts of cognitive development, best illustrated by Piaget's theory, dominated the field until the 1970s and 1980s, when they were gradually superseded by domain-specific accounts. In this article I present evidence suggesting that both global and domain-specific processes make important contributions to cognitive development, and I…

  3. Moldova Power Sources Development including Nuclear Power Plant possible participation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comendant

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available For the new power market conditions Moldova power sources development options up to 2030 are evaluated, attempting to propose the best solutions in this respect and the ways they be realized.

  4. EVAPORATION: a new vapour pressure estimation methodfor organic molecules including non-additivity and intramolecular interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Compernolle

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available We present EVAPORATION (Estimation of VApour Pressure of ORganics, Accounting for Temperature, Intramolecular, and Non-additivity effects, a method to predict (subcooled liquid pure compound vapour pressure p0 of organic molecules that requires only molecular structure as input. The method is applicable to zero-, mono- and polyfunctional molecules. A simple formula to describe log10p0(T is employed, that takes into account both a wide temperature dependence and the non-additivity of functional groups. In order to match the recent data on functionalised diacids an empirical modification to the method was introduced. Contributions due to carbon skeleton, functional groups, and intramolecular interaction between groups are included. Molecules typically originating from oxidation of biogenic molecules are within the scope of this method: aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, ethers, esters, nitrates, acids, peroxides, hydroperoxides, peroxy acyl nitrates and peracids. Therefore the method is especially suited to describe compounds forming secondary organic aerosol (SOA.

  5. HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

  6. Sparse Channel Estimation Including the Impact of the Transceiver Filters with Application to OFDM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbu, Oana-Elena; Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro

    2014-01-01

    Traditionally, the dictionary matrices used in sparse wireless channel estimation have been based on the discrete Fourier transform, following the assumption that the channel frequency response (CFR) can be approximated as a linear combination of a small number of multipath components, each one......) and receive (demodulation) filters. Hence, the assumption of the CFR being sparse in the canonical Fourier dictionary may no longer hold. In this work, we derive a signal model and subsequently a novel dictionary matrix for sparse estimation that account for the impact of transceiver filters. Numerical...... results obtained in an OFDM transmission scenario demonstrate the superior accuracy of a sparse estimator that uses our proposed dictionary rather than the classical Fourier dictionary, and its robustness against a mismatch in the assumed transmit filter characteristics....

  7. Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabiei, Ehsan; Haberlandt, Uwe; Sester, Monika; Fitzner, Daniel; Wallner, Markus

    2016-09-01

    The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rain rate. The optical sensors used in that study are designed for operating the windscreen wipers and showed promising results for rainfall measurement purposes. Their measurement accuracy has been quantified in laboratory experiments. Considering explicitly those errors, the main objective of this study is to investigate the benefit of using RCs for estimating areal rainfall. For that, computer experiments are carried out, where radar rainfall is considered as the reference and the other sources of data, i.e., RCs and rain gauges, are extracted from radar data. Comparing the quality of areal rainfall estimation by RCs with rain gauges and reference data helps to investigate the benefit of the RCs. The value of this additional source of data is not only assessed for areal rainfall estimation performance but also for use in hydrological modeling. Considering measurement errors derived from laboratory experiments, the result shows that the RCs provide useful additional information for areal rainfall estimation as well as for hydrological modeling. Moreover, by testing larger uncertainties for RCs, they observed to be useful up to a certain level for areal rainfall estimation and discharge simulation.

  8. Dose estimate for personal music players including earphone sensitivity and characteristic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hammershøi, Dorte; Ordoñez Pizarro, Rodrigo Eduardo; Christensen, Anders Tornvig

    2016-01-01

    Personal music players can expose their listeners to high sound pressure levels over prolonged periods of time. The risk associated with prolonged listening is not readily available to the listener, and efforts are made to standardize dose estimates that may be displayed for the user. In the pres......Personal music players can expose their listeners to high sound pressure levels over prolonged periods of time. The risk associated with prolonged listening is not readily available to the listener, and efforts are made to standardize dose estimates that may be displayed for the user...

  9. Maximum-likelihood estimation in linkage heterogeneity models including additional information via the EM algorithm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houwing-Duistermaat, J. J.; Sandkuijl, L. A.; Bergen, A. A.; van Houwelingen, H. C.

    1995-01-01

    In linkage analysis, estimated recombination fractions between a disease gene and several markers are used to assign the disease gene to a particular chromosome region. For rare diseases, locus heterogeneity leads to different recombination fractions in different families, and a set of pedigrees can

  10. New rainfall coefficients : including tools for estimation of intensity and hyetographs in Texas : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Depth-Duration-Frequency coefficients for Texas were updated from findings reported in Asquith (1998) and Asquith and Roussel (2004) and are herein referred to as the 2015DDF values. The 2015DDF values were used to estimate the 2015ebd value...

  11. Validity of segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis for estimating fat-free mass in children including overweight individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Megumi; Midorikawa, Taishi; Hikihara, Yuki; Masuo, Yoshihisa; Sakamoto, Shizuo; Torii, Suguru; Kawakami, Yasuo; Fukunaga, Tetsuo; Kanehisa, Hiroaki

    2017-02-01

    This study examined the validity of segmental bioelectrical impedance (BI) analysis for predicting the fat-free masses (FFMs) of whole-body and body segments in children including overweight individuals. The FFM and impedance (Z) values of arms, trunk, legs, and whole body were determined using a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and segmental BI analyses, respectively, in 149 boys and girls aged 6 to 12 years, who were divided into model-development (n = 74), cross-validation (n = 35), and overweight (n = 40) groups. Simple regression analysis was applied to (length) 2 /Z (BI index) for each of the whole-body and 3 segments to develop the prediction equations of the measured FFM of the related body part. In the model-development group, the BI index of each of the 3 segments and whole body was significantly correlated to the measured FFM (R 2 = 0.867-0.932, standard error of estimation = 0.18-1.44 kg (5.9%-8.7%)). There was no significant difference between the measured and predicted FFM values without systematic error. The application of each equation derived in the model-development group to the cross-validation and overweight groups did not produce significant differences between the measured and predicted FFM values and systematic errors, with an exception that the arm FFM in the overweight group was overestimated. Segmental bioelectrical impedance analysis is useful for predicting the FFM of each of whole-body and body segments in children including overweight individuals, although the application for estimating arm FFM in overweight individuals requires a certain modification.

  12. Derivation of Global River Network Attributes Including Downscaled Runoff and Discharge Estimates at High Spatial Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, B.; Linke, S.

    2015-12-01

    River network geometry has been provided globally at 500m pixel resolution in the HydroSHEDS database, comprising nearly 10 million individual river reaches at an average length of approximately 3km. This effort has now been expanded by compiling more than 50 frequently used attributes that have been derived from state-of-the-art global remote sensing products or ancillary data sets. These attributes span a variety of thematic layers, ranging from river reach geometry attributes to climate, land cover, and anthropogenic characteristics. As a core attribute, each river reach has been assigned an estimate of long-term average monthly discharge. This estimate has been derived in a geospatial downscaling procedure utilizing the simulations from a coarse-scale global hydrological model, and the results have been verified against the observed discharge records of more than 3000 stations provided by the Global Runoff Discharge Center. This presentation will introduce the new database and discuss its quality and limitations.

  13. Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars – computer experiments including hydrological modeling

    OpenAIRE

    E. Rabiei; U. Haberlandt; M. Sester; D. Fitzner; M. Wallner

    2016-01-01

    The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rai...

  14. Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Rabiei, Ehsan; Haberlandt, Uwe; Sester, Monika; Fitzner, Daniel; Wallner, Markus

    2016-01-01

    The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have been emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rainfall amounts...

  15. Recent Developments in the Methods of Estimating Shooting Distance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arie Zeichner

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A review of developments during the past 10 years in the methods of estimating shooting distance is provided. This review discusses the examination of clothing targets, cadavers, and exhibits that cannot be processed in the laboratory. The methods include visual/microscopic examinations, color tests, and instrumental analysis of the gunshot residue deposits around the bullet entrance holes. The review does not cover shooting distance estimation from shotguns that fired pellet loads.

  16. A Posteriori Error Estimates Including Algebraic Error and Stopping Criteria for Iterative Solvers

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jiránek, P.; Strakoš, Zdeněk; Vohralík, M.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 3 (2010), s. 1567-1590 ISSN 1064-8275 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100300802 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GP201/09/P464 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : second-order elliptic partial differential equation * finite volume method * a posteriori error estimates * iterative methods for linear algebraic systems * conjugate gradient method * stopping criteria Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 3.016, year: 2010

  17. A Two-Dimensional Modeling Procedure to Estimate the Loss Equivalent Resistance Including the Saturation Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Ana Salas

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a modeling procedure specifically designed for a ferrite inductor excited by a waveform in time domain. We estimate the loss resistance in the core (parameter of the electrical model of the inductor by means of a Finite Element Method in 2D which leads to significant computational advantages over the 3D model. The methodology is validated for an RM (rectangular modulus ferrite core working in the linear and the saturation regions. Excellent agreement is found between the experimental data and the computational results.

  18. Reconstruction of 6 MV photon spectra from measured transmission including maximum energy estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, C R; Peck, K K

    1997-11-01

    Photon spectra from a nominally 6 MV beam under standard clinical conditions and at higher and lower beam qualities have been derived from narrow-beam transmission measurements using a previously published three-parameter reconstruction model. Estimates of the maximum photon energy present in each spectrum were derived using a reduced number of model parameters. An estimate of the maximum contribution of background, or room, scatter to transmission measurements has been made for this study and is shown to be negligible in terms of the quality index and percentage depth-dose of the derived spectra. Percentage depth-dose data for standard beam conditions derived from the reconstructed spectrum were found to agree with direct measurements to within approximately 1% for depths of up to 25 cm in water. Quality indices expressed in terms of TPR10(20) for all spectra were found to agree with directly measured values to within 1%. The experimental procedure and reconstruction model are therefore shown to produce photon spectra whose derived quality indices and percentage depth-dose values agree with direct measurement to within expected experimental uncertainty.

  19. An Improved Heat Budget Estimation Including Bottom Effects for General Ocean Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carder, Kendall; Warrior, Hari; Otis, Daniel; Chen, R. F.

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations of general ocean circulation models for shallow waters. The presence of a bottom significantly alters the estimated heat budget in shallow waters, which affects the corresponding thermal stratification and hence modifies the circulation. Based on the data collected during the COBOP field experiment near the Bahamas, we have used a one-dimensional turbulence closure model to show the influence of the bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The water depth has an almost one-to-one correlation with the temperature rise. Effects of varying the bottom albedo by replacing the sea grass bed with a coral sand bottom, also has an appreciable effect on the heat budget of the shallow regions. We believe that the differences in the heat budget for the shallow areas will have an influence on the local circulation processes and especially on the evaporative and long-wave heat losses for these areas. The ultimate effects on humidity and cloudiness of the region are expected to be significant as well.

  20. Radiation doses to patients in computed tomography including a ready reckoner for dose estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szendroe, G.; Axelsson, B.; Leitz, W.

    1995-11-01

    The radiation burden from CT-examinations is still growing in most countries and has reached a considerable part of the total from medical diagnostic x-ray procedures. Efforts for avoiding excess radiation doses are therefore especially well motivated within this field. A survey of CT-examination techniques practised in Sweden showed that standard settings for the exposure variables are used for the vast majority of examinations. Virtually no adjustments to the patient's differences in anatomy have been performed - even for infants and children on average the same settings have been used. The adjustment of the exposure variables to the individual anatomy offers a large potential of dose savings. Amongst the imaging parameters, a change of the radiation dose will primarily influence the noise. As a starting point it is assumed that, irrespective of the patient's anatomy, the same level of noise can be accepted for a certain diagnostic task. To a large extent the noise level is determined by the number of photons that are registered in the detector. Hence, for different patient size and anatomy, the exposure should be adjusted so that the same transmitted photon fluence is achieved. An appendix with a ready reckoner for dose estimation for CT-scanners used in Sweden is attached. 7 refs, 5 figs, 8 tabs

  1. Estimating eligibility for lung cancer screening in an Australian cohort, including the effect of spirometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manners, David; Hui, Jennie; Hunter, Michael; James, Alan; Knuiman, Matthew W; McWilliams, Annette; Mulrennan, Siobhain; Musk, Arthur W Bill; Brims, Fraser Jh

    2016-06-20

    To estimate the proportion of ever-smokers who are eligible for lung cancer screening in an Australian cohort, and to evaluate the effect of spirometry in defining chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) when assessing screening eligibility. Cross-sectional study of 3586 individuals aged 50-68 years who live in the Busselton Shire of Western Australia. Proportion of ever-smokers eligible for lung cancer screening based on United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria, and PLCOm2012 lung cancer risk > 1.5%. The effect of using self-reported COPD, symptoms consistent with COPD, or spirometry to define COPD for screening eligibility according to the PLCOm2012 criteria. Of ever-smokers aged 55-68 years, 254 (20.1%) would be eligible for screening according to USPSTF criteria; fewer would be eligible according to PLCOm2012 criteria (225, 17.9%; P = 0.004). This is equivalent to 8.9-10.0% of the total population aged 55-68 years, which suggests about 450 000 individuals in Australia may be eligible for lung cancer screening. The proportions of eligible participants were not significantly different whether spirometry results or symptoms consistent with COPD were used to determine PLCOm2012 risk. The proportion of ever-smokers in this population who were eligible for lung cancer screening was 17.9-20.1%. Using symptoms to define COPD is an appropriate surrogate measure for spirometry when determining the presence of COPD in this population. There are significant challenges for policy makers on how to identify and recruit these eligible individuals from the wider population.

  2. Toward including the effect of manufacturing processes in the pre-estimated losses of the switched reluctance motor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eyhab El-Kharahi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of losses plays a key role in the process of building any electrical machine. How to estimate those losses while designing any machine; by obtaining the characteristic of the electrical steel from the catalogue and calculate the losses. However, this way is inaccurate since the electrical steel performs several manufacturing processes during the process of building any machine, which affects directly the magnetic property of the electrical steel and accordingly the characteristic of the electrical steel will be affected. That means the B–H curve of the steel that was obtained from the catalogue will be changed. Moreover, during loading and rotating the machine, some important changes occur to the B–H characteristic of the electrical steel such as the stress on the laminated iron. Accordingly, the pre-estimated losses are completely far from the actual losses because they were estimated based on the data of the electrical steel obtained from the catalogue. So in order to estimate the losses precisely significant factors of the manufacturing processes must be included. The paper introduces the systematic estimation of the losses including the effect of one of the manufacturing factors. Similarly, any other manufacturing factor can be included in the pre-designed losses estimations.

  3. Consistent retrieval of land surface radiation products from EO, including traceable uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminski, Thomas; Pinty, Bernard; Voßbeck, Michael; Lopatka, Maciej; Gobron, Nadine; Robustelli, Monica

    2017-05-01

    Earth observation (EO) land surface products have been demonstrated to provide a constraint on the terrestrial carbon cycle that is complementary to the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide. We present the Joint Research Centre Two-stream Inversion Package (JRC-TIP) for retrieval of variables characterising the state of the vegetation-soil system. The system provides a set of land surface variables that satisfy all requirements for assimilation into the land component of climate and numerical weather prediction models. Being based on a 1-D representation of the radiative transfer within the canopy-soil system, such as those used in the land surface components of advanced global models, the JRC-TIP products are not only physically consistent internally, but they also achieve a high degree of consistency with these global models. Furthermore, the products are provided with full uncertainty information. We describe how these uncertainties are derived in a fully traceable manner without any hidden assumptions from the input observations, which are typically broadband white sky albedo products. Our discussion of the product uncertainty ranges, including the uncertainty reduction, highlights the central role of the leaf area index, which describes the density of the canopy. We explain the generation of products aggregated to coarser spatial resolution than that of the native albedo input and describe various approaches to the validation of JRC-TIP products, including the comparison against in situ observations. We present a JRC-TIP processing system that satisfies all operational requirements and explain how it delivers stable climate data records. Since many aspects of JRC-TIP are generic, the package can serve as an example of a state-of-the-art system for retrieval of EO products, and this contribution can help the user to understand advantages and limitations of such products.

  4. Improving spatial microsimulation estimates of health outcomes by including geographic indicators of health behaviour: The example of problem gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce

    2017-07-01

    Gambling is an important public health issue, with recent estimates ranking it as the third largest contributor of disability adjusted life years lost to ill-health. However, no studies to date have estimated the spatial distribution of gambling-related harm in small areas on the basis of surveys of problem gambling. This study extends spatial microsimulation approaches to include a spatially-referenced measure of health behaviour as a constraint variable in order to better estimate the spatial distribution of problem gambling. Specifically, this study allocates georeferenced electronic gaming machine expenditure data to small residential areas using a Huff model. This study demonstrates how the incorporation of auxiliary spatial data on health behaviours such as gambling expenditure can improve spatial microsimulation estimates of health outcomes like problem gambling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Retrofitting the Low Impact Development Practices into Developed Urban areas Including Barriers and Potential Solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho

    2017-06-01

    Low impact development (LID)/green infrastructure (GI) practices have been identified as the sustainable practices of managing the stormwater in urban areas. Due to the increasing population, most of the cities are more developing which results in the change of natural area into impervious areas (roads, buildings etc.). Moreover, urbanization and climate change are causing many water-related problems and making over cities unsafe and insecure. Under these circumstances, there is a need to introduce new stormwater management practices into developed cities to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization. For this purpose, retrofitting low impact development practices demands more attention to reduce these water-related problems and trying to make our cities sustainable. In developed areas, there is a little space is available for the retrofitting of LID practices for the stormwater management. Therefore, the selection of an appropriate place to retrofitting LID practices needs more concern. This paper describes the successfully applied retrofitting LID practices around the globe. It also includes the process of applying retrofitting LID practices at the suitable place with the suitable combination. Optimal places for the retrofitting of different LID practices are also mentioned. This paper also highlights the barriers and potential solutions of retrofitting LID practices in urban areas.

  6. Retrofitting the Low Impact Development Practices into Developed Urban areas Including Barriers and Potential Solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shafique Muhammad

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Low impact development (LID/green infrastructure (GI practices have been identified as the sustainable practices of managing the stormwater in urban areas. Due to the increasing population, most of the cities are more developing which results in the change of natural area into impervious areas (roads, buildings etc.. Moreover, urbanization and climate change are causing many water-related problems and making over cities unsafe and insecure. Under these circumstances, there is a need to introduce new stormwater management practices into developed cities to reduce the adverse impacts of urbanization. For this purpose, retrofitting low impact development practices demands more attention to reduce these water-related problems and trying to make our cities sustainable. In developed areas, there is a little space is available for the retrofitting of LID practices for the stormwater management. Therefore, the selection of an appropriate place to retrofitting LID practices needs more concern. This paper describes the successfully applied retrofitting LID practices around the globe. It also includes the process of applying retrofitting LID practices at the suitable place with the suitable combination. Optimal places for the retrofitting of different LID practices are also mentioned. This paper also highlights the barriers and potential solutions of retrofitting LID practices in urban areas.

  7. Development on electromagnetic impedance function modeling and its estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutarno, D.

    2015-01-01

    Today the Electromagnetic methods such as magnetotellurics (MT) and controlled sources audio MT (CSAMT) is used in a broad variety of applications. Its usefulness in poor seismic areas and its negligible environmental impact are integral parts of effective exploration at minimum cost. As exploration was forced into more difficult areas, the importance of MT and CSAMT, in conjunction with other techniques, has tended to grow continuously. However, there are obviously important and difficult problems remaining to be solved concerning our ability to collect process and interpret MT as well as CSAMT in complex 3D structural environments. This talk aim at reviewing and discussing the recent development on MT as well as CSAMT impedance functions modeling, and also some improvements on estimation procedures for the corresponding impedance functions. In MT impedance modeling, research efforts focus on developing numerical method for computing the impedance functions of three dimensionally (3-D) earth resistivity models. On that reason, 3-D finite elements numerical modeling for the impedances is developed based on edge element method. Whereas, in the CSAMT case, the efforts were focused to accomplish the non-plane wave problem in the corresponding impedance functions. Concerning estimation of MT and CSAMT impedance functions, researches were focused on improving quality of the estimates. On that objective, non-linear regression approach based on the robust M-estimators and the Hilbert transform operating on the causal transfer functions, were used to dealing with outliers (abnormal data) which are frequently superimposed on a normal ambient MT as well as CSAMT noise fields. As validated, the proposed MT impedance modeling method gives acceptable results for standard three dimensional resistivity models. Whilst, the full solution based modeling that accommodate the non-plane wave effect for CSAMT impedances is applied for all measurement zones, including near-, transition

  8. Development on electromagnetic impedance function modeling and its estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutarno, D., E-mail: Sutarno@fi.itb.ac.id [Earth Physics and Complex System Division Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Institut Teknologi Bandung (Indonesia)

    2015-09-30

    Today the Electromagnetic methods such as magnetotellurics (MT) and controlled sources audio MT (CSAMT) is used in a broad variety of applications. Its usefulness in poor seismic areas and its negligible environmental impact are integral parts of effective exploration at minimum cost. As exploration was forced into more difficult areas, the importance of MT and CSAMT, in conjunction with other techniques, has tended to grow continuously. However, there are obviously important and difficult problems remaining to be solved concerning our ability to collect process and interpret MT as well as CSAMT in complex 3D structural environments. This talk aim at reviewing and discussing the recent development on MT as well as CSAMT impedance functions modeling, and also some improvements on estimation procedures for the corresponding impedance functions. In MT impedance modeling, research efforts focus on developing numerical method for computing the impedance functions of three dimensionally (3-D) earth resistivity models. On that reason, 3-D finite elements numerical modeling for the impedances is developed based on edge element method. Whereas, in the CSAMT case, the efforts were focused to accomplish the non-plane wave problem in the corresponding impedance functions. Concerning estimation of MT and CSAMT impedance functions, researches were focused on improving quality of the estimates. On that objective, non-linear regression approach based on the robust M-estimators and the Hilbert transform operating on the causal transfer functions, were used to dealing with outliers (abnormal data) which are frequently superimposed on a normal ambient MT as well as CSAMT noise fields. As validated, the proposed MT impedance modeling method gives acceptable results for standard three dimensional resistivity models. Whilst, the full solution based modeling that accommodate the non-plane wave effect for CSAMT impedances is applied for all measurement zones, including near-, transition

  9. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2014-08-19

    The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series.

  10. USGS world petroleum assessment 2000; new estimates of undiscovered oil and natural gas, including reserve growth, outside the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2000-01-01

    Oil and natural gas account for approximately 63 percent of the world’s total energy consumption. The U.S. Geological Survey periodically estimates the amount of oil and gas remaining to be found in the world. Since 1981, each of the last four of these assessments has shown a slight increase in the combined volume of identified reserves and undiscovered resources. The latest assessment estimates the volume of technically recoverable conventional oil and gas that may be added to the world's reserves, exclusive of the United States, in the next 30 years. The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 reports an increase in global petroleum resources, including a 20-percent increase in undiscovered oil and a 14-percent decrease in undiscovered natural gas compared to the previous assessment (table 1). These results have important implications for energy prices, policy, security, and the global resource balance.

  11. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  12. Migration of antioxidants from polylactic acid films, a parameter estimation approach: Part I - A model including convective mass transfer coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samsudin, Hayati; Auras, Rafael; Burgess, Gary; Dolan, Kirk; Soto-Valdez, Herlinda

    2018-03-01

    A two-step solution based on the boundary conditions of Crank's equations for mass transfer in a film was developed. Three driving factors, the diffusion (D), partition (K p,f ) and convective mass transfer coefficients (h), govern the sorption and/or desorption kinetics of migrants from polymer films. These three parameters were simultaneously estimated. They provide in-depth insight into the physics of a migration process. The first step was used to find the combination of D, K p,f and h that minimized the sums of squared errors (SSE) between the predicted and actual results. In step 2, an ordinary least square (OLS) estimation was performed by using the proposed analytical solution containing D, K p,f and h. Three selected migration studies of PLA/antioxidant-based films were used to demonstrate the use of this two-step solution. Additional parameter estimation approaches such as sequential and bootstrap were also performed to acquire a better knowledge about the kinetics of migration. The proposed model successfully provided the initial guesses for D, K p,f and h. The h value was determined without performing a specific experiment for it. By determining h together with D, under or overestimation issues pertaining to a migration process can be avoided since these two parameters are correlated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimating Software-Development Costs With Greater Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Dan; Hihn, Jairus; Lum, Karen

    2008-01-01

    COCOMOST is a computer program for use in estimating software development costs. The goal in the development of COCOMOST was to increase estimation accuracy in three ways: (1) develop a set of sensitivity software tools that return not only estimates of costs but also the estimation error; (2) using the sensitivity software tools, precisely define the quantities of data needed to adequately tune cost estimation models; and (3) build a repository of software-cost-estimation information that NASA managers can retrieve to improve the estimates of costs of developing software for their project. COCOMOST implements a methodology, called '2cee', in which a unique combination of well-known pre-existing data-mining and software-development- effort-estimation techniques are used to increase the accuracy of estimates. COCOMOST utilizes multiple models to analyze historical data pertaining to software-development projects and performs an exhaustive data-mining search over the space of model parameters to improve the performances of effort-estimation models. Thus, it is possible to both calibrate and generate estimates at the same time. COCOMOST is written in the C language for execution in the UNIX operating system.

  14. 34 CFR 606.11 - What must be included in individual development grant applications?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... development grant applications? In addition to the information needed by the Secretary to determine whether... application for a development grant must include— (a) The institution's comprehensive development plan; (b) A... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What must be included in individual development grant...

  15. EVAPORATION: a new vapor pressure estimation method for organic molecules including non-additivity and intramolecular interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compernolle, S.; Ceulemans, K.; Müller, J.-F.

    2011-04-01

    We present EVAPORATION (Estimation of VApour Pressure of ORganics, Accounting for Temperature, Intramolecular, and Non-additivity effects), a method to predict vapour pressure p0 of organic molecules needing only molecular structure as input. The method is applicable to zero-, mono- and polyfunctional molecules. A simple formula to describe log10p0(T) is employed, that takes into account both a wide temperature dependence and the non-additivity of functional groups. In order to match the recent data on functionalised diacids an empirical modification to the method was introduced. Contributions due to carbon skeleton, functional groups, and intramolecular interaction between groups are included. Molecules typically originating from oxidation of biogenic molecules are within the scope of this method: carbonyls, alcohols, ethers, esters, nitrates, acids, peroxides, hydroperoxides, peroxy acyl nitrates and peracids. Therefore the method is especially suited to describe compounds forming secondary organic aerosol (SOA).

  16. 34 CFR 607.11 - What must be included in individual development grant applications?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What must be included in individual development grant applications? 607.11 Section 607.11 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education... Does an Institution Apply for a Grant? § 607.11 What must be included in individual development grant...

  17. The Underground Economy and GDP Estimation in Developing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) in most developing countries portrays a lot of meaning; most often it is very low. This could be true or false. The existence of underground economy in this economies tend to undermine the estimation of GDP in developing economies, because the size of such economy is ...

  18. Prenatal parental separation and body weight, including development of overweight and obesity later in childhood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lena Hohwü

    Full Text Available Early parental separation may be a stress factor causing a long-term alteration in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal-axis activity possibly impacting on the susceptibility to develop overweight and obesity in offspring. We aimed to examine the body mass index (BMI and the risk of overweight and obesity in children whose parents lived separately before the child was born.A follow-up study was conducted using data from the Aarhus Birth Cohort in Denmark and included 2876 children with measurements of height and weight at 9-11-years-of-age, and self-reported information on parental cohabitation status at child birth and at 9-11-years-of-age. Quantile regression was used to estimate the difference in median BMI between children whose parents lived separately (n = 124 or together (n = 2752 before the birth. We used multiple logistic regression to calculate odds ratio (OR for overweight and obesity, adjusted for gender, parity, breast feeding status, and maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, weight gain during pregnancy, age and educational level at child birth; with and without possible intermediate factors birth weight and maternal smoking during pregnancy. Due to a limited number of obese children, OR for obesity was adjusted for the a priori confounder maternal pre-pregnancy BMI only.The difference in median BMI was 0.54 kg/m2 (95% confidence intervals (CI: 0.10; 0.98 between children whose parents lived separately before birth and children whose parents lived together. The risk of overweight and obesity was statistically significantly increased in children whose parents lived separately before the birth of the child; OR 2.29 (95% CI: 1.18; 4.45 and OR 2.81 (95% CI: 1.05; 7.51, respectively. Additional, adjustment for possible intermediate factors did not substantially change the estimates.Parental separation before child birth was associated with higher BMI, and increased risk of overweight and obesity in 9-11-year-old children; this may suggest a fetal

  19. Including information about co-morbidity in estimates of disease burden: results from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, J; Vilagut, G; Chatterji, S; Heeringa, S; Schoenbaum, M; Bedirhan Üstün, T; Rojas-Farreras, S; Angermeyer, M; Bromet, E; Bruffaerts, R; de Girolamo, G; Gureje, O; Haro, J M; Karam, A N; Kovess, V; Levinson, D; Liu, Z; Medina-Mora, M E; Ormel, J; Posada-Villa, J; Uda, H; Kessler, R C

    2011-04-01

    The methodology commonly used to estimate disease burden, featuring ratings of severity of individual conditions, has been criticized for ignoring co-morbidity. A methodology that addresses this problem is proposed and illustrated here with data from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys. Although the analysis is based on self-reports about one's own conditions in a community survey, the logic applies equally well to analysis of hypothetical vignettes describing co-morbid condition profiles. Face-to-face interviews in 13 countries (six developing, nine developed; n=31 067; response rate=69.6%) assessed 10 classes of chronic physical and nine of mental conditions. A visual analog scale (VAS) was used to assess overall perceived health. Multiple regression analysis with interactions for co-morbidity was used to estimate associations of conditions with VAS. Simulation was used to estimate condition-specific effects. The best-fitting model included condition main effects and interactions of types by numbers of conditions. Neurological conditions, insomnia and major depression were rated most severe. Adjustment for co-morbidity reduced condition-specific estimates with substantial between-condition variation (0.24-0.70 ratios of condition-specific estimates with and without adjustment for co-morbidity). The societal-level burden rankings were quite different from the individual-level rankings, with the highest societal-level rankings associated with conditions having high prevalence rather than high individual-level severity. Plausible estimates of disorder-specific effects on VAS can be obtained using methods that adjust for co-morbidity. These adjustments substantially influence condition-specific ratings.

  20. Robust Variance Estimation with Dependent Effect Sizes: Practical Considerations Including a Software Tutorial in Stata and SPSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-Smith, Emily E.; Tipton, Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    Methodologists have recently proposed robust variance estimation as one way to handle dependent effect sizes in meta-analysis. Software macros for robust variance estimation in meta-analysis are currently available for Stata (StataCorp LP, College Station, TX, USA) and SPSS (IBM, Armonk, NY, USA), yet there is little guidance for authors regarding…

  1. A hierarchical estimator development for estimation of tire-road friction coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xudong; Göhlich, Dietmar

    2017-01-01

    The effect of vehicle active safety systems is subject to the friction force arising from the contact of tires and the road surface. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the tire-road friction coefficient is of great importance to achieve a good performance of these control systems. This paper presents a tire-road friction coefficient estimation method for an advanced vehicle configuration, four-motorized-wheel electric vehicles, in which the longitudinal tire force is easily obtained. A hierarchical structure is adopted for the proposed estimation design. An upper estimator is developed based on unscented Kalman filter to estimate vehicle state information, while a hybrid estimation method is applied as the lower estimator to identify the tire-road friction coefficient using general regression neural network (GRNN) and Bayes' theorem. GRNN aims at detecting road friction coefficient under small excitations, which are the most common situations in daily driving. GRNN is able to accurately create a mapping from input parameters to the friction coefficient, avoiding storing an entire complex tire model. As for large excitations, the estimation algorithm is based on Bayes' theorem and a simplified "magic formula" tire model. The integrated estimation method is established by the combination of the above-mentioned estimators. Finally, the simulations based on a high-fidelity CarSim vehicle model are carried out on different road surfaces and driving maneuvers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method.

  2. A hierarchical estimator development for estimation of tire-road friction coefficient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xudong Zhang

    Full Text Available The effect of vehicle active safety systems is subject to the friction force arising from the contact of tires and the road surface. Therefore, an adequate knowledge of the tire-road friction coefficient is of great importance to achieve a good performance of these control systems. This paper presents a tire-road friction coefficient estimation method for an advanced vehicle configuration, four-motorized-wheel electric vehicles, in which the longitudinal tire force is easily obtained. A hierarchical structure is adopted for the proposed estimation design. An upper estimator is developed based on unscented Kalman filter to estimate vehicle state information, while a hybrid estimation method is applied as the lower estimator to identify the tire-road friction coefficient using general regression neural network (GRNN and Bayes' theorem. GRNN aims at detecting road friction coefficient under small excitations, which are the most common situations in daily driving. GRNN is able to accurately create a mapping from input parameters to the friction coefficient, avoiding storing an entire complex tire model. As for large excitations, the estimation algorithm is based on Bayes' theorem and a simplified "magic formula" tire model. The integrated estimation method is established by the combination of the above-mentioned estimators. Finally, the simulations based on a high-fidelity CarSim vehicle model are carried out on different road surfaces and driving maneuvers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed estimation method.

  3. NATO Enlargement: Cost Estimates Developed to Date Are Notional

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1997-01-01

    .... Several efforts have been made to estimate these costs. At the request of Congress, the executive branch prepared a study on NATO enlargement issues, including cost, which was released in February 1997...

  4. Coastal erosion's influencing factors include development, dams, wells, and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aubrey, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    The demographic flight to the coast, begun in early civilization, continues unabated worldwide according to latest studies. The percentage of population living on the coast is expected to remain relatively constant over the next few decades, but the total numbers will increase as the population increases. Recent coastal battering by hurricanes and extratropical storms poses questions about coastal habitability and the real economics of coastal development. Repair costs are borne by private individuals as well as the public in various direct and indirect ways. As these costs escalate, it is fitting to ask what the future portends for storm and coastal-flood damage. It is known that development pressures will continue to increase along the coast, but what will happen concurrently to natural-hazard threats to this infrastructure? Though much emphasis has been placed on sea-level rise, the broader issue is climate change in general. Here, the author considers climate change in both its natural and anthropogenic perspectives. Without becoming mired in the debate about the greenhouse effect and human influence on climatic shifts, some of the broad classes of natural hazards that might accompany climate change are examined. There are several categories of possible global-change effects on coastal erosion. In the early 1980's, an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report postulated increases in global sea level up to 4 meters during the next 100 years. Though balanced somewhat by other, lower estimates of sea-level rise, this higher extreme grabbed public attention. During the next decade, scientists attempted to concur on a more reasonable estimate of global sea-level rise due to climate change. Recent credible estimates suggest that approximately 10 to 20 percent of EPA's earlier maximum estimate is most reasonable

  5. Development of fragility functions to estimate homelessness after an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brink, Susan A.; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    Immediately after an earthquake, many stakeholders need to make decisions about their response. These decisions often need to be made in a data poor environment as accurate information on the impact can take months or even years to be collected and publicized. Social fragility functions have been developed and applied to provide an estimate of the impact in terms of building damage, deaths and injuries in near real time. These rough estimates can help governments and response agencies determine what aid may be required which can improve their emergency response and facilitate planning for longer term response. Due to building damage, lifeline outages, fear of aftershocks, or other causes, people may become displaced or homeless after an earthquake. Especially in cold and dangerous locations, the rapid provision of safe emergency shelter can be a lifesaving necessity. However, immediately after an event there is little information available about the number of homeless, their locations and whether they require public shelter to aid the response agencies in decision making. In this research, we analyze homelessness after historic earthquakes using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database. CATDAT includes information on the hazard as well as the physical and social impact of over 7200 damaging earthquakes from 1900-2013 (Daniell et al. 2011). We explore the relationship of both earthquake characteristics and area characteristics with homelessness after the earthquake. We consider modelled variables such as population density, HDI, year, measures of ground motion intensity developed in Daniell (2014) over the time period from 1900-2013 as well as temperature. Using a base methodology based on that used for PAGER fatality fragility curves developed by Jaiswal and Wald (2010), but using regression through time using the socioeconomic parameters developed in Daniell et al. (2012) for "socioeconomic fragility functions", we develop a set of fragility curves that can be

  6. Levels of Brominated Flame Retardants in Dutch fish and Shellfish including an estimation of the dietary intake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwen, van S.P.J.; Pieters, H.; Mul, de A.; Boer, de J.

    2006-01-01

    Brominated flame retardants (BFRs) are used at relatively high concentrations in various materials and polymers.Their use has expanded considerably during the last three decades. The annual global demand was estimated to 200 000 tons in 1999. The most frequently used brominated flame retardants

  7. An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, F; Delpech, V; Albert, J

    2017-01-01

    of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV......OBJECTIVE: Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account...... diagnoses, number of deaths, CD4 cell count at diagnosis, as well as time of arrival into the UK for migrants and the annual number of people receiving care were used. RESULTS: An estimated 106 400 (90% plausibility range: 88 700-124 600) people were living with HIV in the UK in 2013. Twenty-three percent...

  8. Including Web Sites in the Online Catalog: Implications for Cataloging, Collection Development, and Access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, G. Margaret; Bayard, Laura

    1999-01-01

    Describes a pilot project at the University of Notre Dame library that included fully cataloged Web sites in the library's online catalog. Discusses Web site selection criteria and guidelines, access, implications for policies and practices in cataloging and collection development, and bibliographer's resources. (Author/LRW)

  9. Using Copulas in the Estimation of the Economic Project Value in the Mining Industry, Including Geological Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krysa, Zbigniew; Pactwa, Katarzyna; Wozniak, Justyna; Dudek, Michal

    2017-12-01

    Geological variability is one of the main factors that has an influence on the viability of mining investment projects and on the technical risk of geology projects. In the current scenario, analyses of economic viability of new extraction fields have been performed for the KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. underground copper mine at Fore Sudetic Monocline with the assumption of constant averaged content of useful elements. Research presented in this article is aimed at verifying the value of production from copper and silver ore for the same economic background with the use of variable cash flows resulting from the local variability of useful elements. Furthermore, the ore economic model is investigated for a significant difference in model value estimated with the use of linear correlation between useful elements content and the height of mine face, and the approach in which model parameters correlation is based upon the copula best matched information capacity criterion. The use of copula allows the simulation to take into account the multi variable dependencies at the same time, thereby giving a better reflection of the dependency structure, which linear correlation does not take into account. Calculation results of the economic model used for deposit value estimation indicate that the correlation between copper and silver estimated with the use of copula generates higher variation of possible project value, as compared to modelling correlation based upon linear correlation. Average deposit value remains unchanged.

  10. A new simulation model estimates micronutrient levels to include in fortified blended foods used in food aid programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleige, Lisa E; Sahyoun, Nadine R; Murphy, Suzanne P

    2010-02-01

    Current micronutrient levels in Public Law 480 fortified blended foods (FBF) may not be appropriate for all food aid beneficiaries, particularly infants and/or young children and pregnant and/or lactating women. A simulation model was developed to determine the micronutrient fortification levels to include in FBF for food aid programs with the goal of reducing the risk of inadequate micronutrient intakes without exceeding the tolerable upper intake level (UL) for any recipient group. For each micronutrient, the age and gender group with the highest daily Recommended Nutrient Intake (RNI) relative to energy requirement was identified and the effect of providing different percentages of that RNI (66, 75, and 100%) was simulated. In this modeling exercise, we also examined consumption of the FBF at 25 (the usual level), 50, and 100% of daily energy requirement. Results indicated that 2 FBF products are needed: a complementary food for age 6-36 mo and a supplementary food for the older groups. Both of the FBF could be fortified to supply at least 75% of the RNI to all groups, without exceeding the UL for most nutrients, if consumed at 25% of the energy requirement. Even if consumed at 50% of energy requirements, mean intakes of most micronutrients would not exceed the UL, although at 100% of the energy requirement, several micronutrients were undesirably high. We conclude that fortifying an FBF to provide 75% of the RNI would be appropriate for most micronutrients, but this level of fortification would not be appropriate for long-term consumption of the FBF at 100% of the energy requirements.

  11. A statistical model for estimation of fish density including correlation in size, space, time and between species from research survey data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Rasmus Nielsen

    Full Text Available Trawl survey data with high spatial and seasonal coverage were analysed using a variant of the Log Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP statistical model to estimate unbiased relative fish densities. The model estimates correlations between observations according to time, space, and fish size and includes zero observations and over-dispersion. The model utilises the fact the correlation between numbers of fish caught increases when the distance in space and time between the fish decreases, and the correlation between size groups in a haul increases when the difference in size decreases. Here the model is extended in two ways. Instead of assuming a natural scale size correlation, the model is further developed to allow for a transformed length scale. Furthermore, in the present application, the spatial- and size-dependent correlation between species was included. For cod (Gadus morhua and whiting (Merlangius merlangus, a common structured size correlation was fitted, and a separable structure between the time and space-size correlation was found for each species, whereas more complex structures were required to describe the correlation between species (and space-size. The within-species time correlation is strong, whereas the correlations between the species are weaker over time but strong within the year.

  12. Innovative Methods for Estimating Densities and Detection Probabilities of Secretive Reptiles Including Invasive Constrictors and Rare Upland Snakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-30

    stressors, explain the distribution of a  keystone   species . Biological  Invasions 18:3309‐3318.  Steen, D. A. 2010. Snakes in the grass: secretive natural...Carolina Sandhills and the invasive Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus) in Everglades National Park, Florida. For both species , existing...radiotelemetry and extensive road survey data are used to generate the first density estimates available for the species . The results show that southern

  13. A statistical model for estimation of fish density including correlation in size, space, time and between species from research survey data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Kristensen, Kasper; Lewy, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Trawl survey data with high spatial and seasonal coverage were analysed using a variant of the Log Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) statistical model to estimate unbiased relative fish densities. The model estimates correlations between observations according to time, space, and fish size and includes...

  14. Development of sorption database (JAEA-SDB). Update of sorption data including soil and cement systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suyama, Tadahiro; Tachi, Yukio

    2012-03-01

    Sorption of radionuclides in buffer materials (bentonite) and rocks is the key process in the safe geological disposal of radioactive waste, because migration of radionuclides in this barrier is expected to be controlled by sorption processes. Distribution coefficient (K d ) is therefore important parameter in the performance assessment (PA) of geological disposal. The sorption database including extensive compilations of K d data measured by batch sorption experiments plays key roles in PA-related K d setting and predictive model development under a variety of geochemical conditions. For this purpose, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has developed sorption database (JAEA-SDB) as an important basis for the PA of high-level radioactive waste disposal. This sorption database was firstly developed for the H12 PA, and was improved and updated in view of potential future data needs, focusing on assuring the desired quality level and testing the usefulness of the databases for possible applications to PA-related parameter setting. The present report focuses on updating of the sorption database (JAEA-SDB) by adding K d data for various systems including soil and cement systems, to apply JAEA-SDB for the PA-related K d setting for disposal of low level radioactive wastes including TRU wastes and the evaluation of radionuclide transport in surface soil systems. The updated data includes K d data for soil and cement systems extracted from mainly previous published database, and K d data related to our recent activities on the K d setting and mechanistic model development. As a result, 16,000 K d data from 334 references are added, total K d values in the JAEA-SDB are about 46,000. The updated JAEA-SDB is expected to make it possible to obtain quick overview of the available data, and to have suitable access to the respective data for the performance assessment of various types of radioactive waste. (author)

  15. CO2 storage capacity estimation: Issues and development of standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, J.; Bachu, S.; Bonijoly, D.; Burruss, R.; Holloway, S.; Christensen, N.P.; Mathiassen, O.M.

    2007-01-01

    Associated with the endeavours of geoscientists to pursue the promise that geological storage of CO2 has of potentially making deep cuts into greenhouse gas emissions, Governments around the world are dependent on reliable estimates of CO2 storage capacity and insightful indications of the viability of geological storage in their respective jurisdictions. Similarly, industry needs reliable estimates for business decisions regarding site selection and development. If such estimates are unreliable, and decisions are made based on poor advice, then valuable resources and time could be wasted. Policies that have been put in place to address CO2 emissions could be jeopardised. Estimates need to clearly state the limitations that existed (data, time, knowledge) at the time of making the assessment and indicate the purpose and future use to which the estimates should be applied. A set of guidelines for estimation of storage capacity will greatly assist future deliberations by government and industry on the appropriateness of geological storage of CO2 in different geological settings and political jurisdictions. This work has been initiated under the auspices of the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (www.cslforum.org), and it is intended that it will be an ongoing taskforce to further examine issues associated with storage capacity estimation. Crown Copyright ?? 2007.

  16. A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF SOFTWARE PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edin Osmanbegović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software cost estimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

  17. The Watts-Strogatz network model developed by including degree distribution: theory and computer simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y W; Zhang, L F; Huang, J P

    2007-01-01

    By using theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we develop the Watts-Strogatz network model by including degree distribution, in an attempt to improve the comparison between characteristic path lengths and clustering coefficients predicted by the original Watts-Strogatz network model and those of the real networks with the small-world property. Good agreement between the predictions of the theoretical analysis and those of the computer simulations has been shown. It is found that the developed Watts-Strogatz network model can fit the real small-world networks more satisfactorily. Some other interesting results are also reported by adjusting the parameters in a model degree-distribution function. The developed Watts-Strogatz network model is expected to help in the future analysis of various social problems as well as financial markets with the small-world property

  18. Health effects estimation code development for accident consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Togawa, O.; Homma, T.

    1992-01-01

    As part of a computer code system for nuclear reactor accident consequence analysis, two computer codes have been developed for estimating health effects expected to occur following an accident. Health effects models used in the codes are based on the models of NUREG/CR-4214 and are revised for the Japanese population on the basis of the data from the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry and information derived from epidemiological studies on atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The health effects models include early and continuing effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects. The values of some model parameters are revised for early mortality. The models are modified for predicting late somatic effects such as leukemia and various kinds of cancers. The models for genetic effects are the same as those of NUREG. In order to test the performance of one of these codes, it is applied to the U.S. and Japanese populations. This paper provides descriptions of health effects models used in the two codes and gives comparisons of the mortality risks from each type of cancer for the two populations. (author)

  19. Revised stratigraphy of Area 123, Koobi Fora, Kenya, and new age estimates of its fossil mammals, including hominins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathogo, Patrick N; Brown, Francis H

    2006-11-01

    Recent geologic study shows that all hominins and nearly all other published mammalian fossils from Paleontological Collection Area 123, Koobi Fora, Kenya, derive from levels between the KBS Tuff (1.87+/-0.02 Ma) and the Lower Ileret Tuff (1.53+/-0.01 Ma). More specifically, the fossils derive from 53 m of section below the Lower Ileret Tuff, an interval in which beds vary markedly laterally, especially those units containing molluscs and algal stromatolites. The upper Burgi Member (approximately 2.00-1.87 Ma) crops out only in the southwestern part of Area 123. Adjacent Area 110 contains larger exposures of the member, and there the KBS Tuff is preserved as an airfall ash in lacustrine deposits and also as a fluvially redeposited ash. We observed no mammalian fossils in situ in this member in Area 123, but surface specimens have been documented in some monographic treatments. Fossil hominins from Area 123 were attributed to strata above the KBS Tuff in the 1970s, but later they were assigned to strata below the KBS Tuff (now called the upper Burgi Member). This study definitively places the Area 123 hominins in the KBS Member. Most of these hominins are between 1.60 and 1.65 myr in age, but the youngest may date to only 1.53 Ma, and the oldest, to 1.75 Ma. All are 0.15-0.30 myr younger than previously estimated. The new age estimates, in conjunction with published taxonomic attributions of fossils, suggest that at least two species of Homo coexisted in the region along with A. boisei until at least 1.65 Ma. Comparison of crania KNM-ER 1813 and KNM-ER 1470, which were believed to be of comparable age, is at the focus of the debate over whether Homo habilis sensu lato is in fact composed of two species: Homo habilis and Homo rudolfensis. These two crania are separated in time by approximately 0.25 myr, and therefore, arguments for their conspecificity no longer need to confront the issue of unusually high contemporaneous variation within a single species.

  20. Western Saudi adolescent age estimation utilising third molar development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshihri, Amin M; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to establish reference data on third molar morphology/development for age estimation in Western Saudi adolescents, between ages 14 and 23 years of old. The orthopantomograms of 130 individuals (males and females), were examined, and the stage of third molar development were evaluated. Mean ages, standard deviations, and percentile distributions are presented for each stage of development. The mean estimated age for all participants (n = 130) was 219.7 months, and this differed significantly (P age (226.5 months). Deviations of predicted age from real age showed 28.5% of all participants had their age estimated within 1 year (±12 months) of their chronological age. Most (43%) had their age underestimated by more than 12 months and the remaining 28.5% had their age overestimated by more than 12 months of their chronological age. Differences in left-right symmetry information of third molars were detected and were higher in the maxilla (92%) than in the mandible (82%). For all molars reaching stage "H" most individuals (males and females) were over the age 18 years of old. Males reach the developmental stages earlier than females. Third molar tooth development can be reliably used to generate mean age and the estimated age range for an individual of unknown chronological age. Further studies with large populations are needed for better statistical results.

  1. An Approach to Quality Estimation in Model-Based Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmegaard, Jens Peter; Koch, Peter; Ravn, Anders Peter

    2004-01-01

    We present an approach to estimation of parameters for design space exploration in Model-Based Development, where synthesis of a system is done in two stages. Component qualities like space, execution time or power consumption are defined in a repository by platform dependent values. Connectors...

  2. Development of a preliminary regression equation for estimating the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Objective: To develop a regression equation to estimate the weight of black male paraplegic South African subjects. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Outpatient paraplegic clinic of Kalafong Hospital, Tshwane, South Africa. Subjects: Subjects (n = 43) were selected from a population of black paraplegic males ...

  3. Developing allometric equations for estimating leaf area and leaf ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimation of leaf area (LA) and leaf biomass (LB) is important to understand plant physiological and carbon assimilation processes, and tree growth models. The aim of this study was to develop and compare allometric equations for predicting LA and LB of Artocarpus chaplasha Roxb. taking diameter at breast height ...

  4. Research and development, product differentiation and robust estimation

    OpenAIRE

    HINLOOPEN, Jeroen

    1997-01-01

    Defence date: 25 June 1997 Examining board: Prof. Paul Geroski, London Business School ; Prof. Stephen Martin, EUI and University of Copenhagen, Supervisor ; Prof. Louis Phlips, EUI ; Prof. David Ulph, University College London ; Prof. Spyros Vassilakis, EUI First made available online on 24 May 2017 --1. Research and development --2. Product differentiation --3. Robust estimation

  5. Loss of life estimation-Review, developments and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Maaskant, B.; Kolen, B.; Needham, J. T Jason

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the

  6. Estimation of hull girder vertical bending moments including non-linear and flexibility effects using closed form expressions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2009-01-01

    -induced loads are evaluated for specific operational profiles. Non-linearity in the wave bending moment is modeled using results derived from a second-order strip theory and water entry solutions for wedge type sections. Hence, bow flare slamming is accounted for through a momentum type of approach....... The stochastic properties of this non-linear response are calculated through a monotonic Hermite transformation. In addition, the impulse loading due to e.g. bottom slamming or a rapid change in bow flare is included using a modal expansion in the two lowest vertical vibration modes. These whipping vibrations...

  7. Supermarket revolution in Asia and emerging development strategies to include small farmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reardon, Thomas; Timmer, C Peter; Minten, Bart

    2012-07-31

    A "supermarket revolution" has occurred in developing countries in the past 2 decades. We focus on three specific issues that reflect the impact of this revolution, particularly in Asia: continuity in transformation, innovation in transformation, and unique development strategies. First, the record shows that the rapid growth observed in the early 2000s in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand has continued, and the "newcomers"--India and Vietnam--have grown even faster. Although foreign direct investment has been important, the roles of domestic conglomerates and even state investment have been significant and unique. Second, Asia's supermarket revolution has exhibited unique pathways of retail diffusion and procurement system change. There has been "precocious" penetration of rural towns by rural supermarkets and rural business hubs, emergence of penetration of fresh produce retail that took much longer to initiate in other regions, and emergence of Asian retail developing-country multinational chains. In procurement, a symbiosis between modern retail and the emerging and consolidating modern food processing and logistics sectors has arisen. Third, several approaches are being tried to link small farmers to supermarkets. Some are unique to Asia, for example assembling into a "hub" or "platform" or "park" the various companies and services that link farmers to modern markets. Other approaches relatively new to Asia are found elsewhere, especially in Latin America, including "bringing modern markets to farmers" by establishing collection centers and multipronged collection cum service provision arrangements, and forming market cooperatives and farmer companies to help small farmers access supermarkets.

  8. Estimation of Genetic Variance Components Including Mutation and Epistasis using Bayesian Approach in a Selection Experiment on Body Weight in Mice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Widyas, Nuzul; Jensen, Just; Nielsen, Vivi Hunnicke

    selected downwards and three lines were kept as controls. Bayesian statistical methods are used to estimate the genetic variance components. Mixed model analysis is modified including mutation effect following the methods by Wray (1990). DIC was used to compare the model. Models including mutation effect...

  9. Development of Reference Equations of State for Refrigerant Mixtures Including Hydrocarbons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyamoto, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Koichi

    In recent years, most accurate equations of state for alternative refrigerants and their mixtures can easily be used via convenient software package, e.g., REFPROP. In the present paper, we described the current state-of-the-art equations of state for refrigerant mixtures including hydrocarbons as components. Throughout our discussion, the limitation of the available experimental data and the necessity of the improvement against the arbitrary fitting of recent modeling were confirmed. The enough number of reliable experimental data, especially for properties in the higher pressures and temperatures and for derived properties, should be accumulated in the near future for the development of the physically-sound theoretical background. The present review argued about the possibility of the progress for the future thermodynamic property modeling throughout the detailed discussion regarding the several types of the equations of state as well as the recent innovative measurement technique.

  10. Design and development of a workflow for microbial spray formulations including decision criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejarano, Ana; Sauer, Ursula; Preininger, Claudia

    2017-10-01

    Herein, we present a workflow for the development of talc-based microbial inoculants for foliar spray consisting of four steps. These include together with decision-making criteria (1) the selection of additives based on their capability to wet juvenile maize leaves, (2) their adhesion on the plant, (3) their interaction with the biological systems, and (4) the choice of thickener for good dispersion stability. In total, 29 additives including polysaccharides and proteins, polyols, glycosides, oils, waxes, and surfactants (e.g., chitosan, gelatin, glycerol, saponin, castor oil, polyethylene, rhamnolipid) were evaluated. Contact angle and spreading index measurements revealed that the use of 5% Geloil, 1% rhamnolipid, or suitable combinations of Geloil + rhamnolipid and Nurture Yield S 2002 + rhamnolipid enhanced wetting of hydrophobic maize leaves and adherence, similarly to the commercial wetting agents recommended for plant protection 1% Prev B2 and 1% Trifolio S Forte. Interaction of additives with biological systems was based on biocompatibility and phytotoxicity assays, and cell viability monitoring using the endophytic Gram-negative bacterium Paraburkholderia phytofirmans PsJN. Results from biocompatibility assays indicated that in contrast to rhamnolipid and Prev B2 Geloil, Nurture Yield S 2002 and Trifolio S Forte fully supported bacterial growth within a concentration range of 1 to 5%. Dose-dependent phytotoxicity was observed in plants treated with rhamnolipid. Most efficient formulation was composed of PsJN, talc, xanthan, and Geloil. Beyond that, the proposed workflow is expected to generally provide guidance for the development of spray formulations and help other researchers to optimize their choices in this area.

  11. Development method of Hybrid Energy Storage System, including PEM fuel cell and a battery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ustinov, A.; Khayrullina, A.; Borzenko, V.; Khmelik, M.; Sveshnikova, A.

    2016-09-01

    Development of fuel cell (FC) and hydrogen metal-hydride storage (MH) technologies continuously demonstrate higher efficiency rates and higher safety, as hydrogen is stored at low pressures of about 2 bar in a bounded state. A combination of a FC/MH system with an electrolyser, powered with a renewable source, allows creation of an almost fully autonomous power system, which could potentially replace a diesel-generator as a back-up power supply. However, the system must be extended with an electro-chemical battery to start-up the FC and compensate the electric load when FC fails to deliver the necessary power. Present paper delivers the results of experimental and theoretical investigation of a hybrid energy system, including a proton exchange membrane (PEM) FC, MH- accumulator and an electro-chemical battery, development methodology for such systems and the modelling of different battery types, using hardware-in-the-loop approach. The economic efficiency of the proposed solution is discussed using an example of power supply of a real town of Batamai in Russia.

  12. Estimation of paddy water temperature during crop development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Centeno, H.G.S.; Horie, T.

    1996-01-01

    The crop meristem is in direct contact with paddy water during crop's vegetative stage. Ambient air temperature becomes an important factor in crop development only when internodes elongate sufficiently for the meristem to rise above the water surface. This does not occur until after panicle initiation. Crop growth at vegetative stage is affected more by water temperature than the most commonly measured air temperature. During transplanting in 1992 dry season, the maximum paddy water temperature was 10 deg C higher than the maximum air temperature. For rice crop models, the development of a submodel to estimate water temperature is important to account the effect of paddy water temperature on plant growth. Paddy water temperature is estimated from mean air temperature, solar radiation, and crop canopy. The parameters of the model were derived using the simplex method on data from the 1993 wet- and dry-season field experiments at IRRI

  13. Development of an integrated system for estimating human error probabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auflick, J.L.; Hahn, H.A.; Morzinski, J.A.

    1998-12-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). This project had as its main objective the development of a Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), knowledge-based expert system that would provide probabilistic estimates for potential human errors within various risk assessments, safety analysis reports, and hazard assessments. HRA identifies where human errors are most likely, estimates the error rate for individual tasks, and highlights the most beneficial areas for system improvements. This project accomplished three major tasks. First, several prominent HRA techniques and associated databases were collected and translated into an electronic format. Next, the project started a knowledge engineering phase where the expertise, i.e., the procedural rules and data, were extracted from those techniques and compiled into various modules. Finally, these modules, rules, and data were combined into a nearly complete HRA expert system.

  14. Applicability of bioanalysis of multiple analytes in drug discovery and development: review of select case studies including assay development considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R

    2006-05-01

    The development of sound bioanalytical method(s) is of paramount importance during the process of drug discovery and development culminating in a marketing approval. Although the bioanalytical procedure(s) originally developed during the discovery stage may not necessarily be fit to support the drug development scenario, they may be suitably modified and validated, as deemed necessary. Several reviews have appeared over the years describing analytical approaches including various techniques, detection systems, automation tools that are available for an effective separation, enhanced selectivity and sensitivity for quantitation of many analytes. The intention of this review is to cover various key areas where analytical method development becomes necessary during different stages of drug discovery research and development process. The key areas covered in this article with relevant case studies include: (a) simultaneous assay for parent compound and metabolites that are purported to display pharmacological activity; (b) bioanalytical procedures for determination of multiple drugs in combating a disease; (c) analytical measurement of chirality aspects in the pharmacokinetics, metabolism and biotransformation investigations; (d) drug monitoring for therapeutic benefits and/or occupational hazard; (e) analysis of drugs from complex and/or less frequently used matrices; (f) analytical determination during in vitro experiments (metabolism and permeability related) and in situ intestinal perfusion experiments; (g) determination of a major metabolite as a surrogate for the parent molecule; (h) analytical approaches for universal determination of CYP450 probe substrates and metabolites; (i) analytical applicability to prodrug evaluations-simultaneous determination of prodrug, parent and metabolites; (j) quantitative determination of parent compound and/or phase II metabolite(s) via direct or indirect approaches; (k) applicability in analysis of multiple compounds in select

  15. Challenges in developing estimates of exposure rate near the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.B.; McArthur, R.D.

    1996-01-01

    As one of several dose reconstruction projects, the Off-site Radiation Exposure Review Project needed to develop models that reflect processes and lifestyles of the past and obtain accurate and adequate historical data to drive the models. One of the critical pieces, ultimately used to estimate the potential dose to people in the area surrounding the Nevada Test Site, was the development of exposure rate estimates used as input to the external and internal dose models. The historical data available for making these estimates were collected in manners and for purposes not necessarily consistent with the needs of this task. The Town Data Base is the culmination of the effort to develop those estimates for the Project's Phase I region (or for locations near the Nevada Test Site that were primarily covered by ground monitoring at the time of the nuclear tests). It includes estimates of discernible exposure rate at 353 populated locations in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah and for 74 nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. Each dose reconstruction effort has similarities with, and variations from, others. This paper describes some of the challenges encountered in creating the Town Data Base and the approaches used to address them. These challenges included collecting historical data, incorporating net exposure rate values of zero into the estimates, defining a discernible fallout level, handling the lack of measurements at some locations and creating dispersion estimates. The approaches were developed to create open-quotes bestclose quotes estimates and to use actual data (as opposed to assumed values) as the primary source where such data were available. A summary of the spatial distribution of these estimates and a comparison of relative levels of fallout by location are also included

  16. High-performance control of a three-phase voltage-source converter including feedforward compensation of the estimated load current

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leon, Andres E.; Solsona, Jorge A.; Busada, Claudio; Chiacchiarini, Hector; Valla, Maria Ines

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a new control strategy for voltage-source converters (VSC) is introduced. The proposed strategy consists of a nonlinear feedback controller based on feedback linearization plus a feedforward compensation of the estimated load current. In our proposal an energy function and the direct-axis current are considered as outputs, in order to avoid the internal dynamics. In this way, a full linearization is obtained via nonlinear transformation and feedback. An estimate of the load current is feedforwarded to improve the performance of the whole system and to diminish the capacitor size. This estimation allows to obtain a more rugged and cheaper implementation. The estimate is calculated by using a nonlinear reduced-order observer. The proposal is validated through different tests. These tests include performance in presence of switching frequency, measurement filters delays, parameters uncertainties and disturbances in the input voltage.

  17. High-performance control of a three-phase voltage-source converter including feedforward compensation of the estimated load current

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leon, Andres E.; Solsona, Jorge A.; Busada, Claudio; Chiacchiarini, Hector [Instituto de Investigaciones en Ingenieria Electrica (IIIE) UNS-CONICET, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Av. Alem 1253, Bahia Blanca 8000 (Argentina); Valla, Maria Ines [Laboratorio de Electronica Industrial, Control e Instrumentacion (LEICI) and CONICET, Facultad de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata 1900 (Argentina)

    2009-08-15

    In this paper a new control strategy for voltage-source converters (VSC) is introduced. The proposed strategy consists of a nonlinear feedback controller based on feedback linearization plus a feedforward compensation of the estimated load current. In our proposal an energy function and the direct-axis current are considered as outputs, in order to avoid the internal dynamics. In this way, a full linearization is obtained via nonlinear transformation and feedback. An estimate of the load current is feedforwarded to improve the performance of the whole system and to diminish the capacitor size. This estimation allows to obtain a more rugged and cheaper implementation. The estimate is calculated by using a nonlinear reduced-order observer. The proposal is validated through different tests. These tests include performance in presence of switching frequency, measurement filters delays, parameters uncertainties and disturbances in the input voltage. (author)

  18. Prenatal parental separation and body weight, including development of overweight and obesity later in childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hohwü, Lena; Zhu, Jin Liang; Graversen, Lise

    2015-01-01

    change the estimates. CONCLUSION: Parental separation before child birth was associated with higher BMI, and increased risk of overweight and obesity in 9-11-year-old children; this may suggest a fetal programming effect or unmeasured difference in psychosocial factors between separated and non...

  19. An Overview of Seabed Mining Including the Current State of Development, Environmental Impacts, and Knowledge Gaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn A. Miller

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Rising demand for minerals and metals, including for use in the technology sector, has led to a resurgence of interest in exploration of mineral resources located on the seabed. Such resources, whether seafloor massive (polymetallic sulfides around hydrothermal vents, cobalt-rich crusts (CRCs on the flanks of seamounts or fields of manganese (polymetallic nodules on the abyssal plains, cannot be considered in isolation of the distinctive, in some cases unique, assemblages of marine species associated with the same habitats and structures. In addition to mineral deposits, there is interest in extracting methane from gas hydrates on continental slopes and rises. Many of the regions identified for future seabed mining are already recognized as vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs. Since its inception in 1982, the International Seabed Authority (ISA, charged with regulating human activities on the deep-sea floor beyond the continental shelf, has issued 27 contracts for mineral exploration, encompassing a combined area of more than 1.4 million km2, and continues to develop rules for commercial mining. At the same time, some seabed mining operations are already taking place within continental shelf areas of nation states, generally at relatively shallow depths, and with others at advanced stages of planning. The first commercial enterprise, expected to target mineral-rich sulfides in deeper waters, at depths between 1,500 and 2,000 m on the continental shelf of Papua New Guinea, is scheduled to begin early in 2019. In this review, we explore three broad aspects relating to the exploration and exploitation of seabed mineral resources: (1 the current state of development of such activities in areas both within and beyond national jurisdictions, (2 possible environmental impacts both close to and more distant from mining activities and (3 the uncertainties and gaps in scientific knowledge and understanding which render baseline and impact assessments

  20. WILDFIRE IGNITION RESISTANCE ESTIMATOR WIZARD SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT REPORT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, M.; Robinson, C.; Gupta, N.; Werth, D.

    2012-10-10

    This report describes the development of a software tool, entitled “WildFire Ignition Resistance Estimator Wizard” (WildFIRE Wizard, Version 2.10). This software was developed within the Wildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program, sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Infrastructure Protection & Disaster Management Division. WildFIRE Wizard is a tool that enables homeowners to take preventive actions that will reduce their home’s vulnerability to wildfire ignition sources (i.e., embers, radiant heat, and direct flame impingement) well in advance of a wildfire event. This report describes the development of the software, its operation, its technical basis and calculations, and steps taken to verify its performance.

  1. Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, E.W.

    1983-01-01

    Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

  2. Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

    1984-10-01

    This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook

  3. Estimating the economic effects of cystic echinococcosis: Uruguay, a developing country with upper-middle income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torgerson, P R; Carmona, C; Bonifacino, R

    2000-10-01

    Cost-benefit analyses, run before the commencement of a programme to control a parasitic disease, should include estimates of the economic losses attributable to the disease. Uruguay, a middle-income, developing country, has a recent history of persistent problems with cystic echinococcosis, in both its human population and livestock. The economic effects in Uruguay of this disease, caused by the larval stage of the canine tapeworm Echinococcus granulosus, have now been evaluated. Data on the incidence of the disease, in humans and livestock, were used to construct cost estimates. The estimated minimum cost (U.S.$2.9 million/year) was based on the condemnation costs of infected offal together with the actual costs of the hospital treatment of the human cases. The estimate of the maximum cost (U.S.$22.1 million/year) also included the production losses resulting from lower livestock efficiency and the reduced income of individuals with morbidity attributable to the disease.

  4. Estimating age conditional probability of developing disease from surveillance data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fay Michael P

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Fay, Pfeiffer, Cronin, Le, and Feuer (Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22; 1837–1848 developed a formula to calculate the age-conditional probability of developing a disease for the first time (ACPDvD for a hypothetical cohort. The novelty of the formula of Fay et al (2003 is that one need not know the rates of first incidence of disease per person-years alive and disease-free, but may input the rates of first incidence per person-years alive only. Similarly the formula uses rates of death from disease and death from other causes per person-years alive. The rates per person-years alive are much easier to estimate than per person-years alive and disease-free. Fay et al (2003 used simple piecewise constant models for all three rate functions which have constant rates within each age group. In this paper, we detail a method for estimating rate functions which does not have jumps at the beginning of age groupings, and need not be constant within age groupings. We call this method the mid-age group joinpoint (MAJ model for the rates. The drawback of the MAJ model is that numerical integration must be used to estimate the resulting ACPDvD. To increase computational speed, we offer a piecewise approximation to the MAJ model, which we call the piecewise mid-age group joinpoint (PMAJ model. The PMAJ model for the rates input into the formula for ACPDvD described in Fay et al (2003 is the current method used in the freely available DevCan software made available by the National Cancer Institute.

  5. Distance-including rigorous upper bounds and tight estimates for two-electron integrals over long- and short-range operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Travis H.; Ochsenfeld, Christian

    2017-10-01

    We introduce both rigorous and non-rigorous distance-dependent integral estimates for four-center two-electron integrals derived from a distance-including Schwarz-type inequality. The estimates are even easier to implement than our so far most efficient distance-dependent estimates [S. A. Maurer et al., J. Chem. Phys. 136, 144107 (2012)] and, in addition, do not require well-separated charge-distributions. They are also applicable to a wide range of two-electron operators such as those found in explicitly correlated theories and in short-range hybrid density functionals. For two such operators with exponential distance decay [e-r12 and erfc (0.11 ṡr12 ) /r12], the rigorous bound is shown to be much tighter than the standard Schwarz estimate with virtually no error penalty. The non-rigorous estimate gives results very close to an exact screening for these operators and for the long-range 1/r12 operator, with errors that are completely controllable through the integral screening threshold. In addition, we present an alternative form of our non-rigorous bound that is particularly well-suited for improving the PreLinK method [J. Kussmann and C. Ochsenfeld, J. Chem. Phys. 138, 134114 (2013)] in the context of short-range exchange calculations.

  6. Distance-including rigorous upper bounds and tight estimates for two-electron integrals over long- and short-range operators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Travis H; Ochsenfeld, Christian

    2017-10-14

    We introduce both rigorous and non-rigorous distance-dependent integral estimates for four-center two-electron integrals derived from a distance-including Schwarz-type inequality. The estimates are even easier to implement than our so far most efficient distance-dependent estimates [S. A. Maurer et al., J. Chem. Phys. 136, 144107 (2012)] and, in addition, do not require well-separated charge-distributions. They are also applicable to a wide range of two-electron operators such as those found in explicitly correlated theories and in short-range hybrid density functionals. For two such operators with exponential distance decay [e -r 12 and erfc(0.11⋅r 12 )/r 12 ], the rigorous bound is shown to be much tighter than the standard Schwarz estimate with virtually no error penalty. The non-rigorous estimate gives results very close to an exact screening for these operators and for the long-range 1/r 12 operator, with errors that are completely controllable through the integral screening threshold. In addition, we present an alternative form of our non-rigorous bound that is particularly well-suited for improving the PreLinK method [J. Kussmann and C. Ochsenfeld, J. Chem. Phys. 138, 134114 (2013)] in the context of short-range exchange calculations.

  7. Stochastic dynamic simulation modeling including multitrait genetics to estimate genetic, technical, and financial consequences of dairy farm reproduction and selection strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaniyamattam, K; Elzo, M A; Cole, J B; De Vries, A

    2016-10-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a daily stochastic dynamic dairy simulation model that included multitrait genetics and to evaluate the effects of reduced genetic models and various reproduction and selection strategies on the genetic, technical, and financial performance of a dairy herd. The 12 correlated genetic traits included in the 2014 lifetime net merit (NM$) index were modeled for each animal. For each animal, a true breeding value (TBV) for each trait was calculated as the average of the sire's and dam's TBV, plus a fraction of the inbreeding and Mendelian sampling variability. Similarly, an environmental component for each trait was calculated and was partitioned into a permanent and a daily (temporary) effect. The combined TBV and environmental effects were converted into the phenotypic performance of each animal. Hence, genetics and phenotypic performances were associated. Estimated breeding values (EBV) were also simulated. Genetic trends for each trait for the service sire were based on expected trends in US Holsteins. Surplus heifers were culled based on various ranking criteria to maintain a herd size of 1,000 milking cows. In the first 8 scenarios, culling of surplus heifers was either random or based on the EBV of NM$. Four different genetic models, depending on the presence or absence of genetic trends or genetic and environmental correlations, or both, were evaluated to measure the effect of excluding multitrait genetics on animal performance. In the last 5 scenarios, the full genetic model was used and culling of surplus heifers was either random or based on the EBV of NM$ or the EBV of milk. Sexed semen use and reliability of the EBV were also varied. Each scenario was simulated for 15yr into the future. Results showed that genetic models without all 12 genetic trends and genetic and environmental correlations provided biased estimates of the genetic, technical, and financial performance of the dairy herd. Average TBV of NM$ of all

  8. The Development of Methods to Estimate and Reduce Design Rework

    OpenAIRE

    Arundachawat, Panumas

    2012-01-01

    Design rework includes unnecessary repetition in design tasks to correct design problems. Resolving design matters in advance, through in-depth understanding of the design planning and rework issues and development of effective predictive tools could contribute to higher business profit margins and a faster product time-to-market. This research aims to develop three novel and structured methods to predict the design rework occurrence and effort at the very early design stage, which may otherw...

  9. Brine migration resulting from CO2 injection into saline aquifers – An approach to risk estimation including various levels of uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walter, Lena; Binning, Philip John; Oladyshkin, Sergey

    2012-01-01

    for large-scale 3D models including complex physics. Therefore, we apply a model reduction based on arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion combined with probabilistic collocation method. It is shown that, dependent on data availability, both types of uncertainty can be equally significant. The presented study...... provides estimates of the risk of brine discharge into freshwater aquifers due to CO2 injection into geological formations and resultant salt concentrations in the overlying drinking water aquifers....

  10. Human age estimation combining third molar and skeletal development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Kaur, J; Willems, G

    2012-03-01

    The wide prediction intervals obtained with age estimation methods based on third molar development could be reduced by combining these dental observations with age-related skeletal information. Therefore, on cephalometric radiographs, the most accurate age-estimating skeletal variable and related registration method were searched and added to a regression model, with age as response and third molar stages as explanatory variable. In a pilot set up on a dataset of 496 (283 M; 213 F) cephalometric radiographs, the techniques of Baccetti et al. (2005) (BA), Seedat et al. (2005) (SE), Caldas et al. (2007) and Rai et al. (2008) (RA) were verified. In the main study, data from 460 (208 F, 224 M) individuals in an age range between 3 and 26 years, for which at the same day an orthopantogram and a cephalogram were taken, were collected. On the orthopantomograms, the left third molar development was registered using the scoring system described by Gleiser and Hunt (1955) and modified by Köhler (1994) (GH). On the cephalograms, cervical vertebrae development was registered according to the BA and SE techniques. A regression model, with age as response and the GH scores as explanatory variable, was fitted to the data. Next, information of BA, SE and BA + SE was, respectively, added to this model. From all obtained models, the determination coefficients and the root mean squared errors were calculated. Inclusion of information from cephalograms based on the BA, as well as the SE, technique improved the amount of explained variance in age acquired from panoramic radiographs using the GH technique with 48%. Inclusion of cephalometric BA + SE information marginally improved the previous result (+1%). The RMSE decreased with 1.93, 1.85 and 2.03 years by adding, respectively, BA, SE and BA + SE information to the GH model. The SE technique allows clinically the fastest and easiest registration of the degree of development of the cervical vertebrae. Therefore, the choice of

  11. The Politics and Consequences of Including Stakeholders in International Development Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, Anne E.; Coryn, Chris L. S.; Rugh, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Participatory evaluation approaches have a relatively long history of advocacy and application in the international development evaluation community. Despite widespread use and apparent resonance with practitioners and donors alike, very little empirical research exists on why and how participatory evaluation approaches are used in international…

  12. A Multiobjective Optimization Including Results of Life Cycle Assessment in Developing Biorenewables-Based Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmdach, Daniel; Yaseneva, Polina; Heer, Parminder K; Schweidtmann, Artur M; Lapkin, Alexei A

    2017-09-22

    A decision support tool has been developed that uses global multiobjective optimization based on 1) the environmental impacts, evaluated within the framework of full life cycle assessment; and 2) process costs, evaluated by using rigorous process models. This approach is particularly useful in developing biorenewable-based energy solutions and chemicals manufacturing, for which multiple criteria must be evaluated and optimization-based decision-making processes are particularly attractive. The framework is demonstrated by using a case study of the conversion of terpenes derived from biowaste feedstocks into reactive intermediates. A two-step chemical conversion/separation sequence was implemented as a rigorous process model and combined with a life cycle model. A life cycle inventory for crude sulfate turpentine was developed, as well as a conceptual process of its separation into pure terpene feedstocks. The performed single- and multiobjective optimizations demonstrate the functionality of the optimization-based process development and illustrate the approach. The most significant advance is the ability to perform multiobjective global optimization, resulting in identification of a region of Pareto-optimal solutions. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Optimization of the weekly operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric development, including a pumped storage plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popa, R.; Popa, F.; Popa, B.; Zachia-Zlatea, D.

    2010-08-01

    It is presented an optimization model based on genetic algorithms for the operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric power development consisting in a pumped storage plant (PSP) with weekly operation cycle. The lower reservoir of the PSP is supplied upstream from a peak hydropower plant (HPP) with a large reservoir and supplies the own HPP which provides the required discharges towards downstream. Under these conditions, the optimum operation of the assembly consisting in 3 reservoirs and hydropower plants becomes a difficult problem if there are considered the restrictions as regards: the gradients allowed for the reservoirs filling/emptying, compliance with of a long-term policy of the upper reservoir from the hydroelectric development and of the weekly cycle for the PSP upper reservoir, correspondence between the power output/consumption in the weekly load schedule, turning to account of the water resource at maximum overall efficiencies, etc. Maximization of the net energy value (generated minus consumed) was selected as performance function of the model, considering the differentiated price of the electric energy over the week (working or weekend days, peak, half-peak or base hours). The analysis time step was required to be of 3 hours, resulting a weekly horizon of 56 steps and 168 decision variables, respectively, for the 3 HPPs of the system. These were allowed to be the flows turbined at the HPP and the number of working hydrounits at PSP, on each time step. The numerical application has considered the guiding data of Fantanele-Tarnita-Lapustesti hydroelectric development. Results of various simulations carried out proved the qualities of the proposed optimization model, which will allow its use within a decisional support program for such a development.

  14. Optimization of the weekly operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric development, including a pumped storage plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popa, R; Popa, B; Popa, F; Zachia-Zlatea, D

    2010-01-01

    It is presented an optimization model based on genetic algorithms for the operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric power development consisting in a pumped storage plant (PSP) with weekly operation cycle. The lower reservoir of the PSP is supplied upstream from a peak hydropower plant (HPP) with a large reservoir and supplies the own HPP which provides the required discharges towards downstream. Under these conditions, the optimum operation of the assembly consisting in 3 reservoirs and hydropower plants becomes a difficult problem if there are considered the restrictions as regards: the gradients allowed for the reservoirs filling/emptying, compliance with of a long-term policy of the upper reservoir from the hydroelectric development and of the weekly cycle for the PSP upper reservoir, correspondence between the power output/consumption in the weekly load schedule, turning to account of the water resource at maximum overall efficiencies, etc. Maximization of the net energy value (generated minus consumed) was selected as performance function of the model, considering the differentiated price of the electric energy over the week (working or weekend days, peak, half-peak or base hours). The analysis time step was required to be of 3 hours, resulting a weekly horizon of 56 steps and 168 decision variables, respectively, for the 3 HPPs of the system. These were allowed to be the flows turbined at the HPP and the number of working hydrounits at PSP, on each time step. The numerical application has considered the guiding data of Fantanele-Tarnita-Lapustesti hydroelectric development. Results of various simulations carried out proved the qualities of the proposed optimization model, which will allow its use within a decisional support program for such a development.

  15. Optimization of the weekly operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric development, including a pumped storage plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Popa, R; Popa, B [Faculty of Power Engineering, University Politehnica of Bucharest, 313 Spl. Independentei, sect. 6, Bucharest, 060042 (Romania); Popa, F [Institute for Hydropower Studies and Design, 5-7 Vasile Lascar, sect. 2, Bucharest, 020491 (Romania); Zachia-Zlatea, D, E-mail: bogdan.popa@rosha.r [Hidroelectrica S.A., 3 Constantin Nacu, sect. 2, Bucharest, 020995 (Romania)

    2010-08-15

    It is presented an optimization model based on genetic algorithms for the operation of a multipurpose hydroelectric power development consisting in a pumped storage plant (PSP) with weekly operation cycle. The lower reservoir of the PSP is supplied upstream from a peak hydropower plant (HPP) with a large reservoir and supplies the own HPP which provides the required discharges towards downstream. Under these conditions, the optimum operation of the assembly consisting in 3 reservoirs and hydropower plants becomes a difficult problem if there are considered the restrictions as regards: the gradients allowed for the reservoirs filling/emptying, compliance with of a long-term policy of the upper reservoir from the hydroelectric development and of the weekly cycle for the PSP upper reservoir, correspondence between the power output/consumption in the weekly load schedule, turning to account of the water resource at maximum overall efficiencies, etc. Maximization of the net energy value (generated minus consumed) was selected as performance function of the model, considering the differentiated price of the electric energy over the week (working or weekend days, peak, half-peak or base hours). The analysis time step was required to be of 3 hours, resulting a weekly horizon of 56 steps and 168 decision variables, respectively, for the 3 HPPs of the system. These were allowed to be the flows turbined at the HPP and the number of working hydrounits at PSP, on each time step. The numerical application has considered the guiding data of Fantanele-Tarnita-Lapustesti hydroelectric development. Results of various simulations carried out proved the qualities of the proposed optimization model, which will allow its use within a decisional support program for such a development.

  16. Technology Estimating: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stuart K.; Reeves, John D.; Williams-Byrd, Julie A.; Greenberg, Marc; Comstock, Doug; Olds, John R.; Wallace, Jon; DePasquale, Dominic; Schaffer, Mark

    2013-01-01

    NASA is investing in new technologies that include 14 primary technology roadmap areas, and aeronautics. Understanding the cost for research and development of these technologies and the time it takes to increase the maturity of the technology is important to the support of the ongoing and future NASA missions. Overall, technology estimating may help provide guidance to technology investment strategies to help improve evaluation of technology affordability, and aid in decision support. The research provides a summary of the framework development of a Technology Estimating process where four technology roadmap areas were selected to be studied. The framework includes definition of terms, discussion for narrowing the focus from 14 NASA Technology Roadmap areas to four, and further refinement to include technologies, TRL range of 2 to 6. Included in this paper is a discussion to address the evaluation of 20 unique technology parameters that were initially identified, evaluated and then subsequently reduced for use in characterizing these technologies. A discussion of data acquisition effort and criteria established for data quality are provided. The findings obtained during the research included gaps identified, and a description of a spreadsheet-based estimating tool initiated as a part of the Technology Estimating process.

  17. Estimating energy-augmenting technological change in developing country industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanstad, Alan H.; Roy, Joyashree; Sathaye, Jayant A.

    2006-01-01

    Assumptions regarding the magnitude and direction of energy-related technological change have long been recognized as critical determinants of the outputs and policy conclusions derived from integrated assessment models. Particularly in the case of developing countries, however, empirical analysis of technological change has lagged behind simulation modeling. This paper presents estimates of sectoral productivity trends and energy-augmenting technological change for several energy-intensive industries in India and South Korea, and, for comparison, the United States. The key findings are substantial heterogeneity among both industries and countries, and a number of cases of declining energy efficiency. The results are subject to certain technical qualifications both in regards to the methodology and to the direct comparison to integrated assessment parameterizations. Nevertheless, they highlight the importance of closer attention to the empirical basis for common modeling assumptions

  18. Projects of SR sources including research and development for insertion devices in the USSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulipanov, G.

    1990-01-01

    Some technical information on the electron and positron storage rings - SR sources that are being constructed, used or developed at the Novosibirsk Institute of Nuclear Physics (INP), is given. The parameters and construction of wigglers and undulators (electromagnetic, superconducting, and based on permanent magnets) that are intended to be used at such storage rings are described. Various schemes of installation of wigglers, undulators and FEL at storage rings is considered. The ways of minimizing the influence of their magnetic fields on particle motion in storage rings are treated. (author)

  19. Development of a quantitative safety assessment method for nuclear I and C systems including human operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Man Cheol

    2004-02-01

    Conventional PSA (probabilistic safety analysis) is performed in the framework of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. In conventional PSA, I and C systems and human operators are assumed to be independent for simplicity. But, the dependency of human operators on I and C systems and the dependency of I and C systems on human operators are gradually recognized to be significant. I believe that it is time to consider the interdependency between I and C systems and human operators in the framework of PSA. But, unfortunately it seems that we do not have appropriate methods for incorporating the interdependency between I and C systems and human operators in the framework of Pasa. Conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods are not developed to consider the interdependecy, and the modeling of the interdependency using conventional event tree analysis and fault tree analysis seem to be, event though is does not seem to be impossible, quite complex. To incorporate the interdependency between I and C systems and human operators, we need a new method for HRA and a new method for modeling the I and C systems, man-machine interface (MMI), and human operators for quantitative safety assessment. As a new method for modeling the I and C systems, MMI and human operators, I develop a new system reliability analysis method, reliability graph with general gates (RGGG), which can substitute conventional fault tree analysis. RGGG is an intuitive and easy-to-use method for system reliability analysis, while as powerful as conventional fault tree analysis. To demonstrate the usefulness of the RGGG method, it is applied to the reliability analysis of Digital Plant Protection System (DPPS), which is the actual plant protection system of Ulchin 5 and 6 nuclear power plants located in Republic of Korea. The latest version of the fault tree for DPPS, which is developed by the Integrated Safety Assessment team in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), consists of 64

  20. Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

    2015-12-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015

  1. Prediction-based estimating functions: Review and new developments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The general theory of prediction-based estimating functions for stochastic process models is reviewed and extended. Particular attention is given to optimal estimation, asymptotic theory and Gaussian processes. Several examples of applications are presented. In particular, partial observation...

  2. Tell me your life: including life stories in an adult development and aging course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villar, Feliciano; Celdran, Montserrat; Fabà, Josep

    2014-01-01

    The goals of this study were to determine the learning impact of an assignment that consisted of interviewing and analyzing older people's life stories, and to explore how the assignment was evaluated by students. Participants in the study were 122 first-year social education students enrolled in an adult development and aging course. They evaluated the assignment using an eight-adjective questionnaire and were asked about the benefits of the task. Their answers to the questionnaire were then reviewed using content analysis. The results indicated that marks on the life story assignment predicted marks on an exam about basic course concepts. Students considered that the assignment was interesting, useful, and integrated into the course, although most of them also thought that it was very time-consuming. They identified benefits related to the explicit goals of the course (improvement in the learning of developmental concepts, the acquisition of research-related skills, and the deactivation of aging stereotypes) and personal, growth-related benefits. The authors discuss the difficulties posed by the assignment and its usefulness as a complement to more traditional, lecture-based teaching methods in adult development and aging courses.

  3. States and compacts: Issues and events affecting facility development efforts, including the Barnwell opening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, G.S.

    1995-01-01

    Ten years have passed since the first regional low-level radioactive waste compacts received Congressional consent and initiated their efforts to develop new disposal capacity. During these 10 years, both significant achievements and serious setbacks have marked our efforts and affect our current outlook. Recent events in the waste marketplace, particularly in the operating status of the Barnwell disposal facility, have now raised legitimate questions about the continued rationale for the regional framework that grew out of the original legislation enacted by Congress in 1980. At the same time, licensing activities for new regional disposal facilities are under way in three states, and a fourth awaits the final go-ahead to begin construction. Uncertainty over the meaning and reliability of the marketplace events makes it difficult to gauge long-term implications. In addition, differences in the status of individual state and compact facility development efforts lead to varying assessments of the influence these events will, or should, have on such efforts

  4. Development of a Virtual Museum Including a 4d Presentation of Building History in Virtual Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersten, T. P.; Tschirschwitz, F.; Deggim, S.

    2017-02-01

    In the last two decades the definition of the term "virtual museum" changed due to rapid technological developments. Using today's available 3D technologies a virtual museum is no longer just a presentation of collections on the Internet or a virtual tour of an exhibition using panoramic photography. On one hand, a virtual museum should enhance a museum visitor's experience by providing access to additional materials for review and knowledge deepening either before or after the real visit. On the other hand, a virtual museum should also be used as teaching material in the context of museum education. The laboratory for Photogrammetry & Laser Scanning of the HafenCity University Hamburg has developed a virtual museum (VM) of the museum "Alt-Segeberger Bürgerhaus", a historic town house. The VM offers two options for visitors wishing to explore the museum without travelling to the city of Bad Segeberg, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. Option a, an interactive computer-based, tour for visitors to explore the exhibition and to collect information of interest or option b, to immerse into virtual reality in 3D with the HTC Vive Virtual Reality System.

  5. States and compacts: Issues and events affecting facility development efforts, including the Barnwell opening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, G.S.

    1995-12-31

    Ten years have passed since the first regional low-level radioactive waste compacts received Congressional consent and initiated their efforts to develop new disposal capacity. During these 10 years, both significant achievements and serious setbacks have marked our efforts and affect our current outlook. Recent events in the waste marketplace, particularly in the operating status of the Barnwell disposal facility, have now raised legitimate questions about the continued rationale for the regional framework that grew out of the original legislation enacted by Congress in 1980. At the same time, licensing activities for new regional disposal facilities are under way in three states, and a fourth awaits the final go-ahead to begin construction. Uncertainty over the meaning and reliability of the marketplace events makes it difficult to gauge long-term implications. In addition, differences in the status of individual state and compact facility development efforts lead to varying assessments of the influence these events will, or should, have on such efforts.

  6. New developments in state estimation for Nonlinear Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgård, Peter Magnus; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Ravn, Ole

    2000-01-01

    -dimensional interpolation formula. It is shown that under certain assumptions the estimators perform better than estimators based on Taylor approximations. Nevertheless, the implementation is significantly simpler as no derivatives are required. Thus, it is believed that the new state estimators can replace well...

  7. DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT TRANSFER PRICING BY APPLICATION OF THE INTERVAL ESTIMATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena B. Shuvalova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the application of the method of interval estimation of conformity of the transaction price the market price. A comparative analysis of interval and point estimate. Identified the positive and negative effects of using interval estimation.

  8. Recent developments of the MARC/PN transport theory code including a treatment of anisotropic scatter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fletcher, J.K.

    1987-12-01

    The computer code MARC/PN provides a solution of the multigroup transport equation by expanding the flux in spherical harmonics. The coefficients of the series so obtained satisfy linked first order differential equations, and on eliminating terms associated with odd parity harmonics a second order system results which can be solved by established finite difference or finite element techniques. This report describes modifications incorporated in MARC/PN to allow for anisotropic scattering, and the modelling of irregular exterior boundaries in the finite element option. The latter development leads to substantial reductions in problem size, particularly for three dimensions. Also, links to an interactive graphics mesh generator (SUPERTAB) have been added. The final section of the report contains results from problems showing the effects of anisotropic scatter and the ability of the code to model irregular geometries. (author)

  9. Including operational data in QMRA model: development and impact of model inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaidi, Kenza; Barbeau, Benoit; Carrière, Annie; Desjardins, Raymond; Prévost, Michèle

    2009-03-01

    A Monte Carlo model, based on the Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis approach (QMRA), has been developed to assess the relative risks of infection associated with the presence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in drinking water. The impact of various approaches for modelling the initial parameters of the model on the final risk assessments is evaluated. The Monte Carlo simulations that we performed showed that the occurrence of parasites in raw water was best described by a mixed distribution: log-Normal for concentrations > detection limit (DL), and a uniform distribution for concentrations risks significantly. The mean annual risks for conventional treatment are: 1.97E-03 (removal credit adjusted by log parasite = log spores), 1.58E-05 (log parasite = 1.7 x log spores) or 9.33E-03 (regulatory credits based on the turbidity measurement in filtered water). Using full scale validated SCADA data, the simplified calculation of CT performed at the plant was shown to largely underestimate the risk relative to a more detailed CT calculation, which takes into consideration the downtime and system failure events identified at the plant (1.46E-03 vs. 3.93E-02 for the mean risk).

  10. Development of Thermal Spraying and Coating Techniques by Using Thixotropic Slurries Including Metals and Ceramics Particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirihara, S; Tasaki, S; Itakura, Y

    2013-01-01

    Thermal nanoparticles coating and microlines patterning were newly developed as novel technologies to fabricate fine ceramics layers and geometrical intermetallics patterns for mechanical properties modulations of practical alloys substrates. Nanometer sized alumina particles were dispersed into acrylic liquid resins, and the obtained slurries were sputtered by using compressed air jet. The slurry mists could blow into the arc plasma with argon gas spraying. On stainless steels substrates, the fine surface layers with high wear resistance were formed. In cross sectional microstructures of the coated layers, micromater sized cracks or pores were not observed. Subsequently, pure aluminum particles were dispersed into photo solidified acrylic resins, and the slurry was spread on the stainless steel substrates by using a mechanical knife blade. On the substrates, microline patterns with self similar fractal structures were drawn and fixed by using scanning of an ultra violet laser beam. The patterned pure metal particles were heated by the argon arc plasma spray assisting, and the intermetallics or alloys phases with high hardness were created through reaction diffusions. Microstructures in the coated layers and the patterned lines were observed by using a scanning electron microscopy.

  11. Development and evaluation of alternative radioanalytical methods, including mass spectrometry for marine materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    One, if not the most important, aspect of environmental protection against radioactive contamination is the ability to measure accurately low-levels of radionuclides present in the environment. This is particularly true of the marine environment where improved and more rapid methods of analysis are required to identify the source and radiological impact of anthropogenic inputs to the oceans. More sensitive and rapid analytical methods with smaller analytical errors are required to study the behaviour of different radionuclides in the marine environment. Some of these radionuclides serve as useful research tracers that aid in understanding many complex oceanographic processes. With the ever-increasing demand for more accurate data, the IAEA considered it necessary to convene an Advisory Group Meeting to identify those long-lived radionuclides that may be measured by alternative techniques and discuss and evaluate the sensitivity of the analytical methods. The meeting was held at the IAEA Marine Environment Laboratory in Monaco from 6 to 9 June 1989 and was attended by 6 invited participants and several observers. This report from the meeting is divided into two parts. The first contains 5 contributing chapters. In these chapters the authors have endeavored to explain the principles of each measurement technique, the strengths and weakness of the method as applied to marine sciences, comparative costs and sensitivities, future developments and topics of interest to the Agency. The reviews and sensitivities were prepared exclusively by the participants on the basis of their own experience and knowledge of the existing literature. The second part of this report is the appendices section in which can be found tables of radionuclides considered in this report and a comparison of sensitivities for different methods of detection. Refs, figs and tabs

  12. 25 CFR 170.807 - What must BIA include when it develops an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... What must BIA include when it develops an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management System... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What must BIA include when it develops an IRR Transportation Facilities Maintenance Management System? 170.807 Section 170.807 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS...

  13. Modeling of magnetic fields on a cylindrical surface and associated parameter estimation for development of a size sensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Song; Rajamani, Rajesh

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops analytical sensing principles for estimation of circumferential size of a cylindrical surface using magnetic sensors. An electromagnet and magnetic sensors are used on a wearable band for measurement of leg size. In order to enable robust size estimation during rough real-world use of the wearable band, three estimation algorithms are developed based on models of the magnetic field variation over a cylindrical surface. The magnetic field models developed include those for a dipole and for a uniformly magnetized cylinder. The estimation algorithms used include a linear regression equation, an extended Kalman filter and an unscented Kalman filter. Experimental laboratory tests show that the size sensor in general performs accurately, yielding sub-millimeter estimation errors. The unscented Kalman filter yields the best performance that is robust to bias and misalignment errors. The size sensor developed herein can be used for monitoring swelling due to fluid accumulation in the lower leg and a number of other biomedical applications. (paper)

  14. Accurate Bond Lengths to Hydrogen Atoms from Single-Crystal X-ray Diffraction by Including Estimated Hydrogen ADPs and Comparison to Neutron and QM/MM Benchmarks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittrich, Birger; Lübben, Jens; Mebs, Stefan; Wagner, Armin; Luger, Peter; Flaig, Ralf

    2017-04-03

    Amino acid structures are an ideal test set for method-development studies in crystallography. High-resolution X-ray diffraction data for eight previously studied genetically encoding amino acids are provided, complemented by a non-standard amino acid. Structures were re-investigated to study a widely applicable treatment that permits accurate X-H bond lengths to hydrogen atoms to be obtained: this treatment combines refinement of positional hydrogen-atom parameters with aspherical scattering factors with constrained "TLS+INV" estimated hydrogen anisotropic displacement parameters (H-ADPs). Tabulated invariom scattering factors allow rapid modeling without further computations, and unconstrained Hirshfeld atom refinement provides a computationally demanding alternative when database entries are missing. Both should incorporate estimated H-ADPs, as free refinement frequently leads to over-parameterization and non-positive definite H-ADPs irrespective of the aspherical scattering model used. Using estimated H-ADPs, both methods yield accurate and precise X-H distances in best quantitative agreement with neutron diffraction data (available for five of the test-set molecules). This work thus solves the last remaining problem to obtain such results more frequently. Density functional theoretical QM/MM computations are able to play the role of an alternative benchmark to neutron diffraction. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  15. Estimates of effective elastic thickness of oceanic lithosphere using model including surface and subsurface loads and effective elastic thickness of subduction zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, A.; Yongtao, F.

    2016-12-01

    The effective elastic thickness (Te) is an important parameter that characterizes the long term strength of the lithosphere, which has great significance on understanding the mechanical properties and evolution of the lithosphere. In contrast with many controversies regarding elastic thickness of continent lithosphere, the Te of oceanic lithosphere is thought to be in a simple way that is dependent on the age of the plate. However, rescent studies show that there is no simple relationship between Te and age at time of loading for both seamounts and subduction zones. As subsurface loading is very importand and has large influence in the estimate of Te for continent lithosphere, and many oceanic features such as subduction zones also have considerable subsurface loading. We introduce the method to estimate the effective elastic thickness of oceanic lithosphere using model including surface and subsurface loads by using free-air gravity anomaly and bathymetric data, together with a moving window admittance technique (MWAT). We use the multitaper spectral estimation method to calculate the power spectral density. Through tests with synthetic subduction zone like bathymetry and gravity data show that the Te can be recovered in an accurance similar to that in the continent and there is also a trade-off between spatial resolution and variance for different window sizes. We estimate Te of many subduction zones (Peru-Chile trench, Middle America trench, Caribbean trench, Kuril-Japan trench, Mariana trench, Tonga trench, Java trench, Ryukyu-Philippine trench) with an age range of 0-160 Myr to reassess the relationship between elastic thickness and the age of the lithosphere at the time of loading. The results do not show a simple relationship between Te and age.

  16. Evaluation of the Repeatability of the Delta Q Duct Leakage Testing TechniqueIncluding Investigation of Robust Analysis Techniques and Estimates of Weather Induced Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickerhoff, Darryl; Walker, Iain

    2008-08-01

    The DeltaQ test is a method of estimating the air leakage from forced air duct systems. Developed primarily for residential and small commercial applications it uses the changes in blower door test results due to forced air system operation. Previous studies established the principles behind DeltaQ testing, but raised issues of precision of the test, particularly for leaky homes on windy days. Details of the measurement technique are available in an ASTM Standard (ASTM E1554-2007). In order to ease adoption of the test method, this study answers questions regarding the uncertainty due to changing weather during the test (particularly changes in wind speed) and the applicability to low leakage systems. The first question arises because the building envelope air flows and pressures used in the DeltaQ test are influenced by weather induced pressures. Variability in wind induced pressures rather than temperature difference induced pressures dominates this effect because the wind pressures change rapidly over the time period of a test. The second question needs to answered so that DeltaQ testing can be used in programs requiring or giving credit for tight ducts (e.g., California's Building Energy Code (CEC 2005)). DeltaQ modeling biases have been previously investigated in laboratory studies where there was no weather induced changes in envelope flows and pressures. Laboratory work by Andrews (2002) and Walker et al. (2004) found biases of about 0.5% of forced air system blower flow and individual test uncertainty of about 2% of forced air system blower flow. The laboratory tests were repeated by Walker and Dickerhoff (2006 and 2008) using a new ramping technique that continuously varied envelope pressures and air flows rather than taking data at pre-selected pressure stations (as used in ASTM E1554-2003 and other previous studies). The biases and individual test uncertainties for ramping were found to be very close (less than 0.5% of air handler flow) to those

  17. Development of LLW and VLLW disposal business cost estimation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koibuchi, Hiroko; Ishiguro, Hideharu; Matsuda, Kenji

    2004-01-01

    In order to undertake the LLW and VLLW disposal business, various examinations are carried out in RANDEC. Since it is important in undertaking this business to secure funds, a disposal cost must be calculated by way of trial. However, at present, there are many unknown factors such as the amount of wastes, a disposal schedule, the location of a disposal site, and so on, and the cost cannot be determined. Meanwhile, the cost depends on complicated relations among these factors. Then, a 'LLW and VLLW disposal business cost estimation system' has been developed to calculate the disposal cost easily. This system can calculate an annual balance of payments by using a construction and operation cost of disposal facilities, considering economic parameters of tax, inflation rate, interest rate and so on. And the system can calculate internal reserves to assign to next-stage upkeep of the disposal facilities after the disposal operation. A model of disposal site was designed based on assumption of some preconditions and a study was carried out to make a trial calculation by using the system. Moreover, it will be required to reduce construction cost by rationalizing the facility and to make flat an annual business spending by examining the business schedule. (author)

  18. The Development of an Empirical Model for Estimation of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nassiri P

    rate, daily water consumption, smoking habits, drugs that interfere with the thermoregulatory processes, and exposure to other harmful agents. Conclusions: Eventually, based on the criteria, a model for estimation of the workers' sensitivity to heat stress was presented for the first time, by which the sensitivity is estimated in ...

  19. Associated with aerospace vehicles development of methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Elaine P.

    1994-01-01

    was related to the development of the experimental techniques. Initial experiments required a resistance heater placed between two samples. The design was modified such that the heater was placed on the surface of only one sample, as would be necessary in the analysis of built up structures. Experiments using the modified technique were conducted on the composite sample used previously at different temperatures. The results were within 5 percent of those found using two samples. Finally, an initial heat transfer analysis, including conduction, convection and radiation components, was completed on a titanium sandwich structural sample. Experiments utilizing this sample are currently being designed and will be used to first estimate the material's effective thermal conductivity and later to determine the properties associated with each individual heat transfer component.

  20. Comparison of treatment effect estimates for pharmacological randomized controlled trials enrolling older adults only and those including adults: a meta-epidemiological study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valérie Seegers

    Full Text Available CONTEXT: Older adults are underrepresented in clinical research. To assess therapeutic efficacy in older patients, some randomized controlled trials (RCTs include older adults only. OBJECTIVE: To compare treatment effects between RCTs including older adults only (elderly RCTs and RCTs including all adults (adult RCTs by a meta-epidemiological approach. METHODS: All systematic reviews published in the Cochrane Library (Issue 4, 2011 were screened. Eligible studies were meta-analyses of binary outcomes of pharmacologic treatment including at least one elderly RCT and at least one adult RCT. For each meta-analysis, we compared summary odds ratios for elderly RCTs and adult RCTs by calculating a ratio of odds ratios (ROR. A summary ROR was estimated across all meta-analyses. RESULTS: We selected 55 meta-analyses including 524 RCTs (17% elderly RCTs. The treatment effects differed beyond that expected by chance for 7 (13% meta-analyses, showing more favourable treatment effects in elderly RCTs in 5 cases and in adult RCTs in 2 cases. The summary ROR was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.77-1.08, p = 0.28, with substantial heterogeneity (I(2 = 51% and τ(2 = 0.14. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses by type-of-age RCT (elderly RCTs vs RCTs excluding older adults and vs RCTs of mixed-age adults, type of outcome (mortality or other and type of comparator (placebo or active drug yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of pharmacologic treatments did not significantly differ, on average, between RCTs including older adults only and RCTs of all adults. However, clinically important discrepancies may occur and should be considered when generalizing evidence from all adults to older adults.

  1. Estimation of taxa included in the first volume of the Red Data Book of the Republic of Mordovia (Russia using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoliy A. Khapugin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an estimation of taxa included in the first volume of the Red Data Book of the Republic of Mordovia using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Each taxon is provided by a category and all criteria appropriate for it within the region. The paper contains the estimation results of 177 taxa of vascular plants, mosses and algae from the first volume Red Data Book of the Republic of Mordovia (second edition. Of these, 137 are Threatened: 73 taxa are Critically Endangered (category CR, 41 taxa Endangered (category EN, 23 are Vulnerable (category VU, 31 taxa are Near Threatened (category NT. Nine taxa are in the category Data Deficient (DD, due to a lack of sufficient factual material needed for the evaluation. Another 59 taxa of the Red Data Book of the Republic of Mordovia (35 macromycetes and 24 lichens were not evaluated in the present study, also due to the lack of sufficient data needed for an evaluation. Therefore, these taxa are temporarily in the category Not Evaluated (NE. But they could be assigned to one of the threatened categories when evaluated in the future, according to the Guidelines for Application of IUCN Red List Criteria. This paper is considered as a base for establishing the Red List of plant taxa of the Republic of Mordovia in the future.

  2. Development of a practical method of estimating electric power from various photovoltaic technologies with high precision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Tetsuyuki; Sato, Ritsuko; Choi, Sungwoo; Chiba, Yasuo; Masuda, Atsushi

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a method of estimating the electric power from various photovoltaic technologies with high precision. The actual outdoor performance of eight kinds (12 types) of photovoltaic (PV) modules has been measured since January 2012 in order to verify the precision of the method. Using ambient climatic datasets including solar irradiance, module temperature, and solar spectrum, the performance of these PV modules is corrected to the performance under standard test conditions (STC), which should be constant ideally. The results indicate that the performance of bulk crystalline silicon (c-Si) and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) PV modules can be estimated with high precision (approximately less than ±2%). However, the estimation precision of thin-film Si and cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV modules is low because of the initial light-induced degradation and seasonal variation due to metastability.

  3. Estimating Development Cost of an Interactive Website Based Cancer Screening Promotion Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lairson, David R.; Chung, Tong Han; Smith, Lisa G.; Springston, Jeffrey K.; Champion, Victoria L.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to estimate the initial development costs for an innovative talk show format tailored intervention delivered via the interactive web, for increasing cancer screening in women 50 to 75 who were non-adherent to screening guidelines for colorectal cancer and/or breast cancer. Methods The cost of the intervention development was estimated from a societal perspective. Micro costing methods plus vendor contract costs were used to estimate cost. Staff logs were used to track personnel time. Non-personnel costs include all additional resources used to produce the intervention. Results Development cost of the interactive web based intervention was $.39 million, of which 77% was direct cost. About 98% of the cost was incurred in personnel time cost, contract cost and overhead cost. Conclusions The new web-based disease prevention medium required substantial investment in health promotion and media specialist time. The development cost was primarily driven by the high level of human capital required. The cost of intervention development is important information for assessing and planning future public and private investments in web-based health promotion interventions. PMID:25749548

  4. Technology Estimating 2: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stuart K.; Wallace, Jon; Schaffer, Mark; May, M. Scott; Greenberg, Marc W.

    2014-01-01

    As a leader in space technology research and development, NASA is continuing in the development of the Technology Estimating process, initiated in 2012, for estimating the cost and schedule of low maturity technology research and development, where the Technology Readiness Level is less than TRL 6. NASA' s Technology Roadmap areas consist of 14 technology areas. The focus of this continuing Technology Estimating effort included four Technology Areas (TA): TA3 Space Power and Energy Storage, TA4 Robotics, TA8 Instruments, and TA12 Materials, to confine the research to the most abundant data pool. This research report continues the development of technology estimating efforts completed during 2013-2014, and addresses the refinement of parameters selected and recommended for use in the estimating process, where the parameters developed are applicable to Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) used in the parametric cost estimating analysis. This research addresses the architecture for administration of the Technology Cost and Scheduling Estimating tool, the parameters suggested for computer software adjunct to any technology area, and the identification of gaps in the Technology Estimating process.

  5. Development of a method to estimate coal pillar loading

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Roberts, DP

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available The primary goal of this project was to determine the accuracy and validity of the Tributary Area Theory (TAT) and to provide better estimates of pillar load using numerical modelling and other tools. Literature review highlighted that previous work...

  6. Development of a customised design flood estimation tool to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The estimation of design flood events, i.e., floods characterised by a specific magnitude-frequency relationship, at a particular site in a specific region is necessary for the planning, design and operation of hydraulic structures. Both the occurrence and frequency of flood events, along with the uncertainty involved in the ...

  7. Third molar development: evaluation of nine tooth development registration techniques for age estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, Patrick W; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2013-03-01

    Multiple third molar development registration techniques exist. Therefore the aim of this study was to detect which third molar development registration technique was most promising to use as a tool for subadult age estimation. On a collection of 1199 panoramic radiographs the development of all present third molars was registered following nine different registration techniques [Gleiser, Hunt (GH); Haavikko (HV); Demirjian (DM); Raungpaka (RA); Gustafson, Koch (GK); Harris, Nortje (HN); Kullman (KU); Moorrees (MO); Cameriere (CA)]. Regression models with age as response and the third molar registration as predictor were developed for each registration technique separately. The MO technique disclosed highest R(2) (F 51%, M 45%) and lowest root mean squared error (F 3.42 years; M 3.67 years) values, but differences with other techniques were small in magnitude. The amount of stages utilized in the explored staging techniques slightly influenced the age predictions. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  8. Empirical Study of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Ensemble Models for Software Development Effort Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud O. Elish

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of software development effort is essential for effective management and control of software development projects. Many software effort estimation methods have been proposed in the literature including computational intelligence models. However, none of the existing models proved to be suitable under all circumstances; that is, their performance varies from one dataset to another. The goal of an ensemble model is to manage each of its individual models’ strengths and weaknesses automatically, leading to the best possible decision being taken overall. In this paper, we have developed different homogeneous and heterogeneous ensembles of optimized hybrid computational intelligence models for software development effort estimation. Different linear and nonlinear combiners have been used to combine the base hybrid learners. We have conducted an empirical study to evaluate and compare the performance of these ensembles using five popular datasets. The results confirm that individual models are not reliable as their performance is inconsistent and unstable across different datasets. Although none of the ensemble models was consistently the best, many of them were frequently among the best models for each dataset. The homogeneous ensemble of support vector regression (SVR, with the nonlinear combiner adaptive neurofuzzy inference systems-subtractive clustering (ANFIS-SC, was the best model when considering the average rank of each model across the five datasets.

  9. Developing a generalized allometric equation for aboveground biomass estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Q.; Balamuta, J. J.; Greenberg, J. A.; Li, B.; Man, A.; Xu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A key potential uncertainty in estimating carbon stocks across multiple scales stems from the use of empirically calibrated allometric equations, which estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) from plant characteristics such as diameter at breast height (DBH) and/or height (H). The equations themselves contain significant and, at times, poorly characterized errors. Species-specific equations may be missing. Plant responses to their local biophysical environment may lead to spatially varying allometric relationships. The structural predictor may be difficult or impossible to measure accurately, particularly when derived from remote sensing data. All of these issues may lead to significant and spatially varying uncertainties in the estimation of AGB that are unexplored in the literature. We sought to quantify the errors in predicting AGB at the tree and plot level for vegetation plots in California. To accomplish this, we derived a generalized allometric equation (GAE) which we used to model the AGB on a full set of tree information such as DBH, H, taxonomy, and biophysical environment. The GAE was derived using published allometric equations in the GlobAllomeTree database. The equations were sparse in details about the error since authors provide the coefficient of determination (R2) and the sample size. A more realistic simulation of tree AGB should also contain the noise that was not captured by the allometric equation. We derived an empirically corrected variance estimate for the amount of noise to represent the errors in the real biomass. Also, we accounted for the hierarchical relationship between different species by treating each taxonomic level as a covariate nested within a higher taxonomic level (e.g. species equations, the plant's taxonomy, and their biophysical environment.

  10. Development of neonate phantom for estimating medical exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akahane, K.; Kai, M.; Kusama, T. [Oita Univ. of Nursing and Health Sciences, Oita (Japan); Mitarai, T.; Ono, K.; Hada, M.; Ninomiya, H.; Kato, Y. [Oita Prefectural Hospital, Oita (Japan)

    2000-05-01

    The distribution and volume ratio of radiation sensitive organs such as red bone marrow are different between neonates and adults. In addition, the body sizes of neonates in NICU are smaller than normal neonates. Consequently, it is important to estimate a neonatal dose for X-ray examinations in NICU. However, there are few reports on quantitative estimates of measured or mathematically calculated doses for neonatal X-ray examinations. In order to estimate their dose, we made a physical neonatal phantom and estimated its dose using both measurement and calculation methods. In determining the phantom geometry, the body sizes were measured for neonates of NICU in Oita prefectural hospital. As body parameters, weights, heights and trunk sizes were obtained. The weight of phantom was determined to be 2000 g based on these data. The height of the phantom is 43.5 cm, and the trunk width is determined to be 9.5 cm. The whole shape was expressed with rectangular solids without bone region to avoid the difficulties on phantom construction and calculations. The height and other body size parameters were calculated as a function of body weight, which were determined as regression lines on these data. The weights of lungs were calculated using NIRS-M-115, and the positions were determined according to anatomical geometry. The components of the phantom were soft tissue and lung, and tough water and tough lung phantoms were selected as materials of the phantom. For the purpose of the dose measurement, the phantom was located in the incubator of NICU, and exposed under 4 kinds of the conditions of ordinary X-ray examination, which were for chest, combined abdomen-chest, abdomen and head radiographs using a portable X-ray machine. A film-badge was put on the center of exposed area for each examination, and measured entrance surface dose of the phantom. The glass dosimeters were also used. The measured doses of chest, combined abdomen-chest and abdomen were 0.1-0.12 mSv. The Monte

  11. Development of neonate phantom for estimating medical exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akahane, K.; Kai, M.; Kusama, T.; Mitarai, T.; Ono, K.; Hada, M.; Ninomiya, H.; Kato, Y.

    2000-01-01

    The distribution and volume ratio of radiation sensitive organs such as red bone marrow are different between neonates and adults. In addition, the body sizes of neonates in NICU are smaller than normal neonates. Consequently, it is important to estimate a neonatal dose for X-ray examinations in NICU. However, there are few reports on quantitative estimates of measured or mathematically calculated doses for neonatal X-ray examinations. In order to estimate their dose, we made a physical neonatal phantom and estimated its dose using both measurement and calculation methods. In determining the phantom geometry, the body sizes were measured for neonates of NICU in Oita prefectural hospital. As body parameters, weights, heights and trunk sizes were obtained. The weight of phantom was determined to be 2000 g based on these data. The height of the phantom is 43.5 cm, and the trunk width is determined to be 9.5 cm. The whole shape was expressed with rectangular solids without bone region to avoid the difficulties on phantom construction and calculations. The height and other body size parameters were calculated as a function of body weight, which were determined as regression lines on these data. The weights of lungs were calculated using NIRS-M-115, and the positions were determined according to anatomical geometry. The components of the phantom were soft tissue and lung, and tough water and tough lung phantoms were selected as materials of the phantom. For the purpose of the dose measurement, the phantom was located in the incubator of NICU, and exposed under 4 kinds of the conditions of ordinary X-ray examination, which were for chest, combined abdomen-chest, abdomen and head radiographs using a portable X-ray machine. A film-badge was put on the center of exposed area for each examination, and measured entrance surface dose of the phantom. The glass dosimeters were also used. The measured doses of chest, combined abdomen-chest and abdomen were 0.1-0.12 mSv. The Monte

  12. Hawaii Energy Resource Overviews. Volume 4. Impact of geothermal resource development in Hawaii (including air and water quality)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siegel, S.M.; Siegel, B.Z.

    1980-06-01

    The environmental consequences of natural processes in a volcanic-fumerolic region and of geothermal resource development are presented. These include acute ecological effects, toxic gas emissions during non-eruptive periods, the HGP-A geothermal well as a site-specific model, and the geothermal resources potential of Hawaii. (MHR)

  13. Development of a practical modeling framework for estimating the impact of wind technology on bird populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, M.L. [California State Univ., Sacramento, CA (United States); Pollock, K.H. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1997-11-01

    One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds.

  14. Development of a practical modeling framework for estimating the impact of wind technology on bird populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, M.L.; Pollock, K.H.

    1997-11-01

    One of the most pressing environmental concerns related to wind project development is the potential for avian fatalities caused by the turbines. The goal of this project is to develop a useful, practical modeling framework for evaluating potential wind power plant impacts that can be generalized to most bird species. This modeling framework could be used to get a preliminary understanding of the likelihood of significant impacts to birds, in a cost-effective way. The authors accomplish this by (1) reviewing the major factors that can influence the persistence of a wild population; (2) briefly reviewing various models that can aid in estimating population status and trend, including methods of evaluating model structure and performance; (3) reviewing survivorship and population projections; and (4) developing a framework for using models to evaluate the potential impacts of wind development on birds

  15. Survey indicated that core outcome set development is increasingly including patients, being conducted internationally and using Delphi surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggane, Alice M; Brading, Lucy; Ravaud, Philippe; Young, Bridget; Williamson, Paula R

    2018-02-17

    There are numerous challenges in including patients in a core outcome set (COS) study, these can vary depending on the patient group. This study describes current efforts to include patients in the development of COS, with the aim of identifying areas for further improvement and study. Using the COMET database, corresponding authors of COS projects registered or published from 1 January 2013 to 2 February 2017 were invited via a personalised email to participate in a short online survey. The survey and emails were constructed to maximise the response rate by following the academic literature on enhancing survey responses. Personalised reminder emails were sent to non-responders. This survey explored the frequency of patient input in COS studies, who was involved, what methods were used and whether or not the COS development was international. One hundred and ninety-two COS developers were sent the survey. Responses were collected from 21 February 2017 until 7 May 2017. One hundred and forty-six unique developers responded, yielding a 76% response rate and data in relation to 195 unique COSs (as some developers had worked on multiple COSs). Of focus here are their responses regarding 162 COSs at the published, completed or ongoing stages of development. Inclusion of patient participants was indicated in 87% (141/162) of COSs in the published completed or ongoing stages and over 94% (65/69) of ongoing COS projects. Nearly half (65/135) of COSs included patient participants from two or more countries and 22% (30/135) included patient participants from five or more countries. The Delphi survey was reported as being used singularly or in combination with other methods in 85% (119/140) of projects. Almost a quarter (16/65) of ongoing studies reported using a combination of qualitative interviews, Delphi survey and consensus meeting. These findings indicated that the Delphi survey is the most popular method of facilitating patient participation, while the combination of

  16. The Development of an Empirical Model for Estimation of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    . Exposure to heat can result in occupational illnesses, including heat stroke, heat cramps, and heat exhaustion. The risk of exposure to heat depends on individual, environmental, and occupational risk factors. Individual risk factors may ...

  17. Developing a method for estimating AADT on all Louisiana roads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Traffic flow volumes present key information needed for making transportation engineering and planning decisions. : Accurate traffic volume count has many applications including: roadway planning, design, air quality compliance, travel : model valida...

  18. Developing milk industry estimates for dose reconstruction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, D.M.; Darwin, R.F.

    1991-01-01

    One of the most important contributors to radiation doses from hanford during the 1944-1947 period was radioactive iodine. Consumption of milk from cows that ate vegetation contaminated with iodine is likely the dominant pathway of human exposure. To estimate the doses people could have received from this pathway, it is necessary to reconstruct the amount of milk consumed by people living near Hanford, the source of the milk, and the type of feed that the milk cows ate. This task is challenging because the dairy industry has undergone radical changes since the end of World War 2, and records that document the impact of these changes on the study area are scarce. Similar problems are faced by researchers on most dose reconstruction efforts. The purpose of this work is to document and evaluate the methods used on the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to reconstruct the milk industry and to present preliminary results

  19. Including patients in core outcome set development: issues to consider based on three workshops with around 100 international delegates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Bridget; Bagley, Heather

    2016-01-01

    This commentary article describes three interactive workshops that explored how patients can contribute to decisions about what outcomes are measured in clinical trials across the world. Outcomes like quality of life, side-effects and pain are used in trials to measure whether a treatment is effective. Here, we outline how research groups are increasingly coming together to develop 'core outcomes sets' for particular conditions. Core outcome sets are lists of agreed outcomes. Their use will help in identifying which treatments are effective by enabling people to compare the findings of different clinical trials in the same condition. Currently, it is often very difficult to make these comparisons because different studies often measure different outcomes. Delegates attending the workshops included patients, clinicians and researchers. They discussed ways of making core outcome set development more meaningful and accessible for patients, and ensuring that they have a genuine say in the development process. This article summarises these discussions and concludes by identifying three distinctive challenges in securing patient input to core outcome set development: the process and objectives can seem far removed from the immediate concerns of patients, difficulties can arise in securing patient input on an international scale, and difficulties can also arise in bringing multiple stakeholder groups together to achieve consensus. While patient participation, involvement and engagement in core outcome set development can draw on lessons from other research areas, these distinctive challenges point to the need for distinctive solutions to enable meaningful patient input to core outcome set development. Background This article describes three workshops that explored how patients can contribute to decisions about what outcomes are measured in clinical trials. People need evidence about what treatments are best for particular health conditions. The strongest evidence comes

  20. National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stormwater discharges continue to cause impairment of our Nation’s waterbodies. EPA has developed the National Stormwater Calculator (SWC) to help support local, state, and national stormwater management objectives to reduce runoff through infiltration and retention using green i...

  1. Development of a Web-Based Quality Dashboard Including a Toolbox to Improve Pain Management in Dutch Intensive Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roos-Blom, Marie-José; Gude, Wouter T; de Jonge, Evert; Spijkstra, Jan Jaap; van der Veer, Sabine N; Dongelmans, Dave A; de Keizer, Nicolette F

    2017-01-01

    Audit and feedback (A&F) is a common strategy to improve quality of care. Meta-analyses have indicated that A&F may be more effective in realizing desired change when baseline performance is low, it is delivered by a supervisor or colleague, it is provided frequently and in a timely manner, it is delivered in both verbal and written formats, and it includes specific targets and an action plan. However, there is little information to guide operationalization of these factors. Researchers have consequently called for A&F interventions featuring well-described and carefully justified components, with their theoretical rationale made explicit. This paper describes the rationale and development of a quality dashboard including an improvement toolbox for four previous developed pain indicators, guided by Control Theory.

  2. Developing the FARSEEING Taxonomy of Technologies: Classification and description of technology use (including ICT) in falls prevention studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulton, Elisabeth; Hawley-Hague, Helen; Vereijken, Beatrix; Clifford, Amanda; Guldemond, Nick; Pfeiffer, Klaus; Hall, Alex; Chesani, Federico; Mellone, Sabato; Bourke, Alan; Todd, Chris

    2016-06-01

    Recent Cochrane reviews on falls and fall prevention have shown that it is possible to prevent falls in older adults living in the community and in care facilities. Technologies aimed at fall detection, assessment, prediction and prevention are emerging, yet there has been no consistency in describing or reporting on interventions using technologies. With the growth of eHealth and data driven interventions, a common language and classification is required. The FARSEEING Taxonomy of Technologies was developed as a tool for those in the field of biomedical informatics to classify and characterise components of studies and interventions. The Taxonomy Development Group (TDG) comprised experts from across Europe. Through face-to-face meetings and contributions via email, five domains were developed, modified and agreed: Approach; Base; Components of outcome measures; Descriptors of technologies; and Evaluation. Each domain included sub-domains and categories with accompanying definitions. The classification system was tested against published papers and further amendments undertaken, including development of an online tool. Six papers were classified by the TDG with levels of consensus recorded. Testing the taxonomy with papers highlighted difficulties in definitions across international healthcare systems, together with differences of TDG members' backgrounds. Definitions were clarified and amended accordingly, but some difficulties remained. The taxonomy and manual were large documents leading to a lengthy classification process. The development of the online application enabled a much simpler classification process, as categories and definitions appeared only when relevant. Overall consensus for the classified papers was 70.66%. Consensus scores increased as modifications were made to the taxonomy. The FARSEEING Taxonomy of Technologies presents a common language, which should now be adopted in the field of biomedical informatics. In developing the taxonomy as an

  3. Studies and analyses of the management of scientific research and development, including implementation and application at NASA centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubenstein, A. H.

    1975-01-01

    Summary results obtained through the Program of Research on the Management of Research and Development (POMRAD) were presented. The nature of the overall program and the specific projects undertaken were described. Statistical data is also given concerning the papers, publications, people, and major program areas associated with the program. The actual list of papers, names of doctoral and masters theses, and other details of the program are included as appendices.

  4. VA Construction: Improved Processes Needed to Monitor Contract Modifications, Develop Schedules, and Estimate Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    operational. VA’s Activations Office supports activation efforts by issuing guidance and offering some services, including cost -estimating services...for this review. See appendix III for changes in cost and schedule for all 26 ongoing major medical-facilities projects. Below, we describe issues ...documented comparison of the current estimate (updated with actual costs ) and previous estimate. However, the estimate is based on historical and

  5. Development of a customised design flood estimation tool to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-03-07

    Mar 7, 2011 ... tribution of the simulated peak discharges versus the observed peaks was less satisfactory. The following single-event deterministic methods are included as an available option in the DFET: • RM. • Alternative Rational Method (ARM). • Soil Conservation Services (SCS). • Standard Design Flood (SDF) ...

  6. ESTIMATING FINANCIAL SUPPORT OF REGIONAL PROGRAMS OF SOCIAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iryna Kokhan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The given article presents the analysis of the experience of the financial support of the regional programs of social economic development and the areas of usage of internal and external resources of the area. Dynamic and balanced development of regions is one of the most important issues for further establishment of marketing relations and social transformations in Ukraine. The Aim lies in the evaluation of financial support of the approved regional programs and launching the amount of their financing. The assessment of social economic situation in Ivano-Frankivsk region in terms of nationwide tendencies allows asserting that economic growth depends on the amounts and sources provided by the state. To determine close connection between  the amount of financing  for the programs  and  gross domestic product, the coefficient of correlation was calculated according to Pierson. It was proved that the amount of financing regional programs of social economic development influences the growth rate of gross domestic product. During research period the activation of regional authority institutions is being surveyed regarding the adoption and financing target regional programs. It was determined that the dynamic activity of the regional community and its territorial units on realization in terms of defined strategic priorities for programs of social economic development will facilitate disproportion reduction and differences in the development of territory units in the region, as well as positively influences the growth of gross domestic product providing steady increase of social welfare. Keywords: social economic regional development, ecology programs, social programs, gross regional domestic product, Pierson’s correlation coefficient. JEL: R 58

  7. DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL ALLOMETRIC EQUATION TO ESTIMATE TOTAL ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS IN PAPUA TROPICAL FOREST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandhi Imam Maulana

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Recently, pantropical allometric equations  have been commonly used across the globe to  estimate the aboveground biomass of the forests, including in Indonesia. However, in relation to regional differences in diameter, height and wood density, the lack of data measured, particularly from eastern part of Indonesia, may raise the question on  accuracy of pantropical allometric in such area. Hence, this paper examines  the differences of local allometric equations of Papua Island with equations developed by Chave and his research groups.. Measurements of biomass in this study were conducted directly based on weighing and destructive samplings. Results show that the most appropriate local equation to estimate total aboveground biomass in Papua tropical forest is Log(TAGB = -0.267 + 2.23 Log(DBH +0.649 Log(WD (CF=1.013; VIF=1.6; R2= 95%; R2-adj= 95.1%; RMSE= 0.149; P<0.001. This equation is also a better option in comparison to those of previously published pantropical equations with only 6.47% average deviation and 5.37 points of relative bias. This finding implies that the locally developed equation should be a better option to produce more accurate site specific total aboveground biomass estimation.

  8. Development of simple kinetic models and parameter estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to describe and predict the growth and expression of recombinant proteins by using a genetically modified Pichia pastoris, we developed a number of unstructured models based on growth kinetic equation, fed-batch mass balance and the assumptions of constant cell and protein yields. The growth of P. pastoris on ...

  9. Development of simple kinetic models and parameter estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PANCHIGA

    2016-09-28

    Sep 28, 2016 ... by methanol. In this study, the unstructured models based on growth kinetic equation, fed-batch mass balance and constancy of cell and protein yields were developed and constructed following the substrates, glycerol and methanol. The growth model on glycerol is mostly published while the growth model ...

  10. The Development of an Empirical Model for Estimation of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nassiri P

    rate, daily water consumption, smoking habits, drugs that interfere with the thermoregulatory processes, and exposure to other .... health department of Health Ministry, and students who were working on a thesis associated with ..... Also diarrhea, vomiting and lack of sleep can be co-factors in development of heat disorders.

  11. Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, J.R.

    1986-04-01

    This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided

  12. Using BOST method to the concept development estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Rosak-Szyrocka

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper uses an innovative research methodology - BOST questionnaire. Based on the questionnaire, two Toyota’s principles were evaluated. These were E2 and E2 areas. According to the results it is possible to state that the most important factors for workers are the following: customer’s good (DK, followed by product innovativeness (IP, independence and accountability of employees (SP, formation of products stockpile (PZ, cooperation with partners (WK, technology development (RT and corporate culture care (PR.

  13. Including capabilities of local actors in regional economic development: Empirical results of local seaweed industries in Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark T.J. Vredegoor

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Stimson, et al. (2009 developed one of the most relevant and well known model for Regional Economic Development. This model covers the most important factors related to economic development question. However, this model excludes the social components of development. Local community should be included in terms of the development of a region. This paper introduced to the Stimson model “Skills” and “Knowledge” at the individual level for local actors indicating the capabilities at the individual level and introduced “Human Coordination” for the capabilities at the collective level. In our empirical research we looked at the Indonesian seaweed market with a specific focus on the region of Baubau. This region was chosen because there are hardly any economic developments. Furthermore this study focuses on the poorer community who are trying to improve their situation by the cultivation of Seaweed. Eighteen local informants was interviewed besides additional interviews of informants from educational and governmental institutions in the cities of Jakarta, Bandung and Yogyakarta. The informants selected had a direct or indirect relationship with the region of Baubau. With the support of the empirical data from this region we can confirm that it is worthwhile to include the local community in the model for regional economic development.  The newly added variables: at the individual level; Skills and Knowledge and at the level of the collective: Human Coordination was supported by the empirical material. It is an indication that including the new variables can give regional economic an extra dimension.  In this way we think that it becomes more explicit that “endogenous” means that the people, or variables closely related to them, should be more explicitly included in models trying to capture Regional Economic Development or rephrased as Local Economic Development Keywords:Regional and endogenous development; Fisheries and seaweed

  14. Estimating the cost of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldie Sue J

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

  15. Development of a global motor rating scale for young children (0-4 years) including eye-hand grip coordination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaivre-Douret, L; Burnod, Y

    2001-11-01

    A comparative study of the eight motor rating scales available in Western countries demonstrated methodological differences in the choice of items and standardization. We have developed a global motor rating scale that includes items which measure postural-motor, locomotor (PML) and eye-hand grip coordination (EHGC), and which allows the assessment of an average of motor function level (MFL), PML and EHGC development. Scores obtained were used to define the acquisition of motor age based on the skills completed. The items were selected on the basis of the average age at which the function developed in two populations of healthy full-term French infants, followed from birth to 4 months (n = 60) and from 4 months to 4 years (n = 63). Recent French developmental standards (mean age and standard deviation) of acquisition allow the identification of neuro-psychomotor deviations from normal motor behaviour. This includes both static and dynamic motor coordination sequences. Inter-examiner correlations (n = 3) for 15 randomly selected children indicated a coefficient of 0.90. The scale revealed a sequence in the organization of learned postural-motor, locomotor and eye-hand gripping skills which can contribute to the understanding of brain areas implicated in this maturation process.

  16. Developing Methods for Fraction Cover Estimation Toward Global Mapping of Ecosystem Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, D. A.; Thompson, D. R.; Dennison, P. E.; Green, R. O.; Kokaly, R. F.; Pavlick, R.; Schimel, D.; Stavros, E. N.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial vegetation seldom covers an entire pixel due to spatial mixing at many scales. Estimating the fractional contributions of photosynthetic green vegetation (GV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), and substrate (soil, rock, etc.) to mixed spectra can significantly improve quantitative remote measurement of terrestrial ecosystems. Traditional methods for estimating fractional vegetation cover rely on vegetation indices that are sensitive to variable substrate brightness, NPV and sun-sensor geometry. Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) is an alternate framework that provides estimates of fractional cover. However, simple SMA, in which the same set of endmembers is used for an entire image, fails to account for natural spectral variability within a cover class. Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) is a variant of SMA that allows the number and types of pure spectra to vary on a per-pixel basis, thereby accounting for endmember variability and generating more accurate cover estimates, but at a higher computational cost. Routine generation and delivery of GV, NPV, and substrate (S) fractions using MESMA is currently in development for large, diverse datasets acquired by the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). We present initial results, including our methodology for ensuring consistency and generalizability of fractional cover estimates across a wide range of regions, seasons, and biomes. We also assess uncertainty and provide a strategy for validation. GV, NPV, and S fractions are an important precursor for deriving consistent measurements of ecosystem parameters such as plant stress and mortality, functional trait assessment, disturbance susceptibility and recovery, and biomass and carbon stock assessment. Copyright 2016 California Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. We acknowledge support of the US Government, NASA, the Earth Science Division and Terrestrial Ecology program.

  17. RAIL TRAFFIC VOLUME ESTIMATION BASED ON WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luka Lazarević

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available European transport policy, defined in the White Paper, supports shift from road to rail and waterborne transport. The hypothesis of the paper is that changes in the economic environment influence rail traffic volume. Therefore, a model for prediction of rail traffic volume applied in different economic contexts could be a valuable tool for the transport planners. The model was built using common Machine Learning techniques that learn from the past experience. In the model preparation, world development indicators defined by the World Bank were used as input parameters.

  18. Development and assessment of best estimate integrated safety analysis code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Young Jin; Hwang, Moon Kyu (and others)

    2007-03-15

    Improvement of the integrated safety analysis code MARS3.0 has been carried out and a multi-D safety analysis application system has been established. Iterative matrix solver and parallel processing algorithm have been introduced, and a LINUX version has been generated to enable MARS to run in cluster PCs. MARS variables and sub-routines have been reformed and modularised to simplify code maintenance. Model uncertainty analyses have been performed for THTF, FLECHT, NEPTUN, and LOFT experiments as well as APR1400 plant. Participations in international cooperation research projects such as OECD BEMUSE, SETH, PKL, BFBT, and TMI-2 have been actively pursued as part of code assessment efforts. The assessment, evaluation and experimental data obtained through international cooperation projects have been registered and maintained in the T/H Databank. Multi-D analyses of APR1400 LBLOCA, DVI Break, SLB, and SGTR have been carried out as a part of application efforts in multi-D safety analysis. GUI based 3D input generator has been developed for user convenience. Operation of the MARS Users Group (MUG) was continued and through MUG, the technology has been transferred to 24 organisations. A set of 4 volumes of user manuals has been compiled and the correction reports for the code errors reported during MARS development have been published.

  19. Should professional development include analyzing and coaching ways of speaking during inquiry-based science instruction in elementary classrooms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zee, Emily H.

    2009-12-01

    In this commentary, I first consider what Oliveira defines inquiry-based science instruction to be. Next I discuss what the discourse practices are that he is advocating. Then I examine what he presents as evidence of changes in two teachers' discourse practices due to a summer institute and how their pragmatic awareness seems to have been enhanced through institute activities. Finally I ponder whether, when, how, and why professional development should include a focus on ways of speaking during inquiry-based science instruction.

  20. Estimation of biological chromophores using diffuse optical spectroscopy: benefit of extending the UV-VIS wavelength range to include 1000 to 1600 nm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nachabé, Rami; Hendriks, Benno H. W.; van der Voort, Marjolein; Desjardins, Adrien E.; Sterenborg, Henricus J. C. M.

    2010-01-01

    With an optical fiber probe, we acquired spectra from swine tissue between 500 and 1600 nm by combining a silicon and an InGaAs spectrometer. The concentrations of the biological chromophores were estimated by fitting a mathematical model derived from diffusion theory. The advantage of our technique

  1. Estimation of biological chromophores using diffuse optical spectroscopy: Benefit of extending the UV-VIS wavelength range to include 1000 to 1600 nm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Nachabé (Rami); B.H.W. Hendriks (Benno); M. van der Voort (Marjolein); A.E. Desjardins (Adrien); H.J.C.M. Sterenborg (Dick)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWith an optical fiber probe, we acquired spectra from swine tissue between 500 and 1600 nm by combining a silicon and an InGaAs spectrometer. The concentrations of the biological chromophores were estimated by fitting a mathematical model derived from diffusion theory. The advantage of

  2. National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future Enhancements - abstract

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Stormwater Calculator (NSC) makes it easy to estimate runoff reduction when planning a new development or redevelopment site with low impact development (LID) stormwater controls. The Calculator is currently deployed as a Windows desktop application. The Calculator i...

  3. Development of flow injection analysis technique for uranium estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paranjape, A.H.; Pandit, S.S.; Shinde, S.S.; Ramanujam, A.; Dhumwad, R.K.

    1991-01-01

    Flow injection analysis is increasingly used as a process control analytical technique in many industries. It involves injection of the sample at a constant rate into a steady flowing stream of reagent and passing this mixture through a suitable detector. This paper describes the development of such a system for the analysis of uranium (VI) and (IV) and its gross gamma activity. It is amenable for on-line or automated off-line monitoring of uranium and its activity in process streams. The sample injection port is suitable for automated injection of radioactive samples. The performance of the system has been tested for the colorimetric response of U(VI) samples at 410 nm in the range of 35 to 360mg/ml in nitric acid medium using Metrohm 662 Photometer and a recorder as detector assembly. The precision of the method is found to be better than +/- 0.5%. This technique with certain modifications is used for the analysis of U(VI) in the range 0.1-3mg/ailq. by alcoholic thiocynate procedure within +/- 1.5% precision. Similarly the precision for the determination of U(IV) in the range 15-120 mg at 650 nm is found to be better than 5%. With NaI well-type detector in the flow line, the gross gamma counting of the solution under flow is found to be within a precision of +/- 5%. (author). 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

  4. Estimation of un-used land potential for biofuels development in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Yishui [Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100026 (China); Maelardalen University, Vaesteraas SE-721 23 (Sweden); Zhao, Lixin; Meng, Haibo; Sun, Liying [Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100026 (China); Yan, Jinyue [Maelardalen University, Vaesteraas SE-721 23 (Sweden); Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2009-11-15

    This paper presents the current status of biofuel development and estimates the potential of un-used land for biofuel development. The potential of crops including cassava, sweet potato, sweet sorghum, sugarcane, sugar beet and Jerusalem artichoke were assessed and discussed for different regions considering the geographical conditions and features of agricultural production. If reserved land resources are explored together with substitute planting implemented and unit area yield improved, potential production of ethanol fuel will be 22 million ton in 2020. The study also recommends the use of winter idle lands for rapeseed plantation for biofuel production. The potential for production of biodiesel by rapeseed and cottonseed can reach to 3.59 million ton. (author)

  5. Development of Constraint Force Equation Methodology for Application to Multi-Body Dynamics Including Launch Vehicle Stage Seperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamadi, Bandu N.; Toniolo, Matthew D.; Tartabini, Paul V.; Roithmayr, Carlos M.; Albertson, Cindy W.; Karlgaard, Christopher D.

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this report is to develop and implement a physics based method for analysis and simulation of multi-body dynamics including launch vehicle stage separation. The constraint force equation (CFE) methodology discussed in this report provides such a framework for modeling constraint forces and moments acting at joints when the vehicles are still connected. Several stand-alone test cases involving various types of joints were developed to validate the CFE methodology. The results were compared with ADAMS(Registered Trademark) and Autolev, two different industry standard benchmark codes for multi-body dynamic analysis and simulations. However, these two codes are not designed for aerospace flight trajectory simulations. After this validation exercise, the CFE algorithm was implemented in Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) to provide a capability to simulate end-to-end trajectories of launch vehicles including stage separation. The POST2/CFE methodology was applied to the STS-1 Space Shuttle solid rocket booster (SRB) separation and Hyper-X Research Vehicle (HXRV) separation from the Pegasus booster as a further test and validation for its application to launch vehicle stage separation problems. Finally, to demonstrate end-to-end simulation capability, POST2/CFE was applied to the ascent, orbit insertion, and booster return of a reusable two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle concept. With these validation exercises, POST2/CFE software can be used for performing conceptual level end-to-end simulations, including launch vehicle stage separation, for problems similar to those discussed in this report.

  6. NIAM-deficient mice are predisposed to the development of proliferative lesions including B-cell lymphomas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara M Reed

    Full Text Available Nuclear Interactor of ARF and Mdm2 (NIAM, gene designation Tbrg1 is a largely unstudied inhibitor of cell proliferation that helps maintain chromosomal stability. It is a novel activator of the ARF-Mdm2-Tip60-p53 tumor suppressor pathway as well as other undefined pathways important for genome maintenance. To examine its predicted role as a tumor suppressor, we generated NIAM mutant (NIAM(m/m mice homozygous for a β-galactosidase expressing gene-trap cassette in the endogenous gene. The mutant mice expressed significantly lower levels of NIAM protein in tissues compared to wild-type animals. Fifty percent of aged NIAM deficient mice (14 to 21 months developed proliferative lesions, including a uterine hemangioma, pulmonary papillary adenoma, and a Harderian gland adenoma. No age-matched wild-type or NIAM(+/m heterozygous animals developed lesions. In the spleen, NIAM(m/m mice had prominent white pulp expansion which correlated with enhanced increased reactive lymphoid hyperplasia and evidence of systemic inflammation. Notably, 17% of NIAM mutant mice had splenic white pulp features indicating early B-cell lymphoma. This correlated with selective expansion of marginal zone B cells in the spleens of younger, tumor-free NIAM-deficient mice. Unexpectedly, basal p53 expression and activity was largely unaffected by NIAM loss in isolated splenic B cells. In sum, NIAM down-regulation in vivo results in a significant predisposition to developing benign tumors or early stage cancers. These mice represent an outstanding platform for dissecting NIAM's role in tumorigenesis and various anti-cancer pathways, including p53 signaling.

  7. Development of a System Analysis Toolkit for Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Propagation, and Estimation of Parameter Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heo, Jaeseok; Kim, Kyung Doo

    2015-01-01

    Statistical approaches to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are very important in estimating the safety margins for an engineering design application. This paper presents a system analysis and optimization toolkit developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), which includes multiple packages of the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification algorithms. In order to reduce the computing demand, multiple compute resources including multiprocessor computers and a network of workstations are simultaneously used. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed within the parallel computing framework for users to readily employ the toolkit for an engineering design and optimization problem. The goal of this work is to develop a GUI framework for engineering design and scientific analysis problems by implementing multiple packages of system analysis methods in the parallel computing toolkit. This was done by building an interface between an engineering simulation code and the system analysis software packages. The methods and strategies in the framework were designed to exploit parallel computing resources such as those found in a desktop multiprocessor workstation or a network of workstations. Available approaches in the framework include statistical and mathematical algorithms for use in science and engineering design problems. Currently the toolkit has 6 modules of the system analysis methodologies: deterministic and probabilistic approaches of data assimilation, uncertainty propagation, Chi-square linearity test, sensitivity analysis, and FFTBM

  8. The post-millennium development goals agenda: include 'end to all wars' as a public health goal!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasinghe, Saroj

    2014-09-01

    The process of identifying global post-millennium development goals (post-MDGs) has begun in earnest. Consensus is emerging in certain areas (e.g. eliminating poverty) and conflicts and violence are recognized as key factors that retard human development. However, current discussions focus on tackling intra-state conflicts and individual-based violence and hardly mention eliminating wars as a goal. Wars create public health catastrophes. They kill, maim, displace and affect millions. Inter-state wars fuel intra-state conflicts and violence. The peace agenda should not be the monopoly of the UN Security Council, and the current consensus-building process setting the post-MDG agenda is a rallying point for the global community. The human rights approach will not suffice to eliminate wars, because few are fought to protect human rights. The development agenda should therefore commit to eliminating all wars by 2030. Targets to reduce tensions and discourage wars should be included. We should act now. © The Author(s) 2014.

  9. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Connie E.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan L.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n = 476) with prenatal drug exposures documented…

  10. A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizell, Carolyn; Malone, Linda

    2007-01-01

    It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

  11. Development of a 'ready-to-use' tool that includes preventability, for the assessment of adverse drug events in oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert, Guillaume; Netzer, Florence; Kouakou, Sylvain Landry; Lemare, François; Minvielle, Etienne

    2018-02-14

    Background Adverse drug events (ADEs) occur frequently in oncology and justify continuous assessment and monitoring. There are several methods for detecting them, but the trigger tool method seems the most appropriate. Although a generic tool exists, its use for ADEs in oncology has not been convincing. The development of a focused version is therefore necessary. Objective To provide an oncology-focused trigger tool that evaluates the prevalence, harm, and preventability in a standardised method for pragmatic use in ADE surveillance. Setting Hospitals with cancer care in France. Method The tool has been constructed in two steps: (1) constitution of an oncology-centred list of ADEs; 30 pharmacists/practitioners in cancer care from nine hospitals selected a list of ADEs using a method of agreement adapted from the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method; and (2) construction of three standardised dimensions for the characterisation of each ADE (including causality, severity, and preventability). Main outcome measure The main outcome measure was validation of the tool, including preventability criteria. Results The tool is composed of a final list of 15 ADEs. For each ADE, a 'reviewer form' has been designed and validated by the panel. It comprises (1) the trigger(s), (2) flowcharts to guide the reviewer, (3) criteria for grading harm, and (4) a standardised assessment of preventability with 6-14 closed sentences for each ADE in terms of therapeutic management and/or prevention of side-effects. Conclusion A complete 'ready-to-use' tool for ADE monitoring in oncology has been developed that allows the assessment of three standardised dimensions.

  12. Developing an explicit strategy towards social responsibility in the NHS: a case for including NHS managers in this strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merali, Faruk

    2006-01-01

    To explore the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR) within the UK National Health Service (NHS) and to examine how it may be developed to positively influence the psyche, behaviour and performance of NHS managers. Primary research based upon semi-structured individual face to face interviews with 20 NHS managers. Theoretical frameworks and concepts relating to organisational culture and CSR are drawn upon to discuss the findings. The NHS managers see themselves as being driven by altruistic core values. However, they feel that the public does not believe that they share the altruistic NHS value system. The study is based on a relatively small sample of NHS managers working exclusively in London and may not necessarily represent the views of managers either London-wide or nation-wide. It is suggested that an explicit recognition by the NHS of the socially responsible commitment of its managers within its CSR strategy would help challenge the existing negative public image of NHS managers and in turn improve the managers' self esteem and morale. This paper addresses the relative lacunae in research relating to public sector organisations (such as the NHS) explicitly including the role and commitment of its staff within the way it publicises its CSR strategy. This paper would be of interest to a wide readership including public sector and NHS policy formulators, NHS practitioners, academics and students.

  13. Estimating Development Time of Software Projects Using a Neuro Fuzzy Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Venus Marza; Amin Seyyedi; Luiz Fernando Capretz

    2008-01-01

    Software estimation accuracy is among the greatest challenges for software developers. This study aimed at building and evaluating a neuro-fuzzy model to estimate software projects development time. The forty-one modules developed from ten programs were used as dataset. Our proposed approach is compared with fuzzy logic and neural network model and Results show that the value of MMRE (Mean of Magnitude of Relative Error) applying neuro-fuzzy was substantially lower than M...

  14. Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

    2015-12-31

    A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html) and Vermont (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff.

  15. ECH system developments including the design of an intelligent fault processor on the DIII-D tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponce, D.; Lohr, J.; Tooker, J.F.; O'Neill, R.C.; Moeller, C.P.; Doane, J.L.; Noraky, S.; Dubovenko, K.; Gorelov, Y.A.; Cengher, M.; Penaflor, B.G.; Ellis, R.A.

    2011-01-01

    A new generation fault processor is in development which is intended to increase fault handling flexibility and reduce the number of incomplete DIII-D shots due to gyrotron faults. The processor, which is based upon a field programmable gate array device, will analyze signals for aberrant operation and ramp down high voltage to try to avoid hard faults. The processor will then attempt to ramp back up to an attainable operating point. The new generation fault processor will be developed during an expansion of the electron cyclotron heating (ECH) areas that will include the installation of a depressed collector gyrotron and associated equipment. Existing systems will also be upgraded. Testing of real-time control of the ECH launcher poloidal drives by the DIII-D plasma control system will be completed. The ECH control system software will be upgraded for increased scalability and to increase operator productivity. Resources permitting, all systems will receive an extra layer of interlocks for the filament and magnet power supplies, added shielding for the tank electronics, programmable filament boost shape for long pulses, and electronics upgrades for the installation of the advanced fault processor.

  16. Development and Implementation of a Battery-Electric Light-Duty Class 2a Truck including Hybrid Energy Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kollmeyer, Phillip J.

    This dissertation addresses two major related research topics: 1) the design, fabrication, modeling, and experimental testing of a battery-electric light-duty Class 2a truck; and 2) the design and evaluation of a hybrid energy storage system (HESS) for this and other vehicles. The work begins with the determination of the truck's peak power and wheel torque requirements (135kW/4900Nm). An electric traction system is then designed that consists of an interior permanent magnet synchronous machine, two-speed gearbox, three-phase motor drive, and LiFePO4 battery pack. The battery pack capacity is selected to achieve a driving range similar to the 2011 Nissan Leaf electric vehicle (73 miles). Next, the demonstrator electric traction system is built and installed in the vehicle, a Ford F150 pickup truck, and an extensive set of sensors and data acquisition equipment is installed. Detailed loss models of the battery pack, electric traction machine, and motor drive are developed and experimentally verified using the driving data. Many aspects of the truck's performance are investigated, including efficiency differences between the two-gear configuration and the optimal gear selection. The remainder focuses on the application of battery/ultracapacitor hybrid energy storage systems (HESS) to electric vehicles. First, the electric truck is modeled with the addition of an ultracapacitor pack and a dc/dc converter. Rule-based and optimal battery/ultracapacitor power-split control algorithms are then developed, and the performance improvements achieved for both algorithms are evaluated for operation at 25°C. The HESS modeling is then extended to low temperatures, where battery resistance increases substantially. To verify the accuracy of the model-predicted results, a scaled hybrid energy storage system is built and the system is tested for several drive cycles and for two temperatures. The HESS performance is then modeled for three variants of the vehicle design, including the

  17. Effectiveness of incentive spirometry in patients following thoracotomy and lung resection including those at high risk for developing pulmonary complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostini, Paula; Naidu, Babu; Cieslik, Hayley; Steyn, Richard; Rajesh, Pala Babu; Bishay, Ehab; Kalkat, Maninder Singh; Singh, Sally

    2013-06-01

    Following thoracotomy, patients frequently receive routine respiratory physiotherapy which may include incentive spirometry, a breathing technique characterised by deep breathing performed through a device offering visual feedback. This type of physiotherapy is recommended and considered important in the care of thoracic surgery patients, but high quality evidence for specific interventions such as incentive spirometry remains lacking. 180 patients undergoing thoracotomy and lung resection participated in a prospective single-blind randomised controlled trial. All patients received postoperative breathing exercises, airway clearance and early mobilisation; the control group performed thoracic expansion exercises and the intervention group performed incentive spirometry. No difference was observed between the intervention and control groups in the mean drop in forced expiratory volume in 1 s on postoperative day 4 (40% vs 41%, 95% CI -5.3% to 4.2%, p=0.817), the frequency of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) (12.5% vs 15%, 95% CI -7.9% to 12.9%, p=0.803) or in any other secondary outcome measure. A high-risk subgroup (defined by ≥2 independent risk factors; age ≥75 years, American Society of Anaesthesiologists score ≥3, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), smoking status, body mass index ≥30) also demonstrated no difference in outcomes, although a larger difference in the frequency of PPC was observed (14% vs 23%) with 95% CIs indicating possible benefit of intervention (-7.4% to 2.6%). Incentive spirometry did not improve overall recovery of lung function, frequency of PPC or length of stay. For patients at higher risk for the development of PPC, in particular those with COPD or current/recent ex-smokers, there were larger observed actual differences in the frequency of PPC in favour of the intervention, indicating that investigations regarding the physiotherapy management of these patients need to be developed further.

  18. Development of a fluidized bed agglomeration modeling methodology to include particle-level heterogeneities in ash chemistry and granular physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadilkar, Aditi B.

    The utility of fluidized bed reactors for combustion and gasification can be enhanced if operational issues such as agglomeration are mitigated. The monetary and efficiency losses could be avoided through a mechanistic understanding of the agglomeration process and prediction of operational conditions that promote agglomeration. Pilot-scale experimentation prior to operation for each specific condition can be cumbersome and expensive. So the development of a mathematical model would aid predictions. With this motivation, the study comprised of the following model development stages- 1) development of an agglomeration modeling methodology based on binary particle collisions, 2) study of heterogeneities in ash chemical composition and gaseous atmosphere, 3) computation of a distribution of particle collision frequencies based on granular physics for a poly-disperse particle size distribution, 4) combining the ash chemistry and granular physics inputs to obtain agglomerate growth probabilities and 5) validation of the modeling methodology. The modeling methodology comprised of testing every binary particle collision in the system for sticking, based on the extent of dissipation of the particles' kinetic energy through viscous dissipation by slag-liquid (molten ash) covering the particles. In the modeling methodology developed in this study, thermodynamic equilibrium calculations are used to estimate the amount of slag-liquid in the system, and the changes in particle collision frequencies are accounted for by continuously tracking the number density of the various particle sizes. In this study, the heterogeneities in chemical composition of fuel ash were studied by separating the bulk fuel into particle classes that are rich in specific minerals. FactSage simulations were performed on two bituminous coals and an anthracite to understand the effect of particle-level heterogeneities on agglomeration. The mineral matter behavior of these constituent classes was studied

  19. An overview of J estimation schemes developed for the RSE-M code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delliou, Patrick Le; Sermage, Jean-Philippe; Barthelet, Bruno; Michel, Bruno; Gilles, Philippe

    2003-01-01

    The RSE-M Code provides rules and requirements for in-service inspection of French Pressurized Water Reactor power plant components. The RSE-M Code gives non mandatory guidance for analytical evaluation of flaws. To calculate the stress intensity factors in pipes and shells containing semi-elliptical surface defects, influence coefficients are given for a wide range of geometrical parameters. To calculate the J integral for surface cracks in pipes and elbows, simplified methods have been developed for mechanical loads (in-plane bending and torsion moments, pressure), thermal loads as well as for the combination of these loads. This paper presents an overview of the J-estimation schemes presently available: a circumferential surface crack in a straight pipe (already included in the 2000 Addenda of the Code), a circumferential surface crack in a tapered transition, a longitudinal surface crack in a straight pipe, a longitudinal surface crack in the mid-section of an elbow. (author)

  20. Laboratory Studies of the Reactive Chemistry and Changing CCN Properties of Secondary Organic Aerosol, Including Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scot Martin

    2013-01-31

    The chemical evolution of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles and how this evolution alters their cloud-nucleating properties were studied. Simplified forms of full Koehler theory were targeted, specifically forms that contain only those aspects essential to describing the laboratory observations, because of the requirement to minimize computational burden for use in integrated climate and chemistry models. The associated data analysis and interpretation have therefore focused on model development in the framework of modified kappa-Koehler theory. Kappa is a single parameter describing effective hygroscopicity, grouping together several separate physicochemical parameters (e.g., molar volume, surface tension, and van't Hoff factor) that otherwise must be tracked and evaluated in an iterative full-Koehler equation in a large-scale model. A major finding of the project was that secondary organic materials produced by the oxidation of a range of biogenic volatile organic compounds for diverse conditions have kappa values bracketed in the range of 0.10 +/- 0.05. In these same experiments, somewhat incongruently there was significant chemical variation in the secondary organic material, especially oxidation state, as was indicated by changes in the particle mass spectra. Taken together, these findings then support the use of kappa as a simplified yet accurate general parameter to represent the CCN activation of secondary organic material in large-scale atmospheric and climate models, thereby greatly reducing the computational burden while simultaneously including the most recent mechanistic findings of laboratory studies.

  1. Demonstrating an Approach for Including Pesticide Use in Life Cycle Assessment: Estimating Human and Ecosystem Toxicity of Pesticide Use in Midwest Corn Farming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purpose This study demonstrates an approach to assess human health and ecotoxicity impacts of pesticide use by including multiple environmental pathways and various exposure routes using the case of corn grown for bio-based fuel or chemical production in US Midwestern states.Meth...

  2. Demonstrating an approach for including pesticide use in life-cycle assessment: Estimating human and ecosystem toxicity of pesticide use in Midwest corn farming

    Science.gov (United States)

    PurposeThis study demonstrates an approach to assess human health and ecotoxicity impacts of pesticide use by including multiple environmental pathways and various exposure routes using the case of corn grown for bio-based fuel or chemical production in US Midwestern states.Metho...

  3. Developing Singapore Driving Cycle for passenger cars to estimate fuel consumption and vehicular emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Sze-Hwee; Wong, Yiik-Diew; Chang, Victor Wei-Chung

    2014-11-01

    Singapore has pledged to attain 7-11% Business-As-Usual carbon emissions reduction by 2020. Road transport sector is a significant source of carbon emissions, estimated to be the third largest sector in Singapore. A current gap in environmental evaluation for road transport activities in Singapore is the lack of a representative driving cycle for passenger cars (64% of the total population of 974,170 vehicles). This Singapore Driving Cycle (SDC) is hence developed for Singapore roads and traffic conditions. A chase-car (instrumented vehicle) was used to collect on-road data along 12 designed routes, and circulation driving on highly utilized arterial roads (including those in Central Business District (CBD) and both inner and outer ring roads fringing the CBD area). The SDC was thus hence constructed, with consideration of road type proportions, time periods and desired distance, duration and peak-lull proportion. In essence, the SDC is a 2400-s speed-time profile to represent the driving pattern for passenger car in Singapore. Microscopic estimation model (CMEM) shows that, as compared to SDC, the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) underestimates most of the vehicular emissions (fuel, CO2, HC and NOx by 5%, 5%, 22% and 47%, respectively) and overestimates CO by 8%. The SDC is thus more suitable than the NEDC that is currently in use in Singapore; the SDC can be used to generate more accurate fuel consumption and emissions ratings for various uses (for example, inventory of vehicular emissions and fuel economy labelling).

  4. Accurate Bond Lengths to Hydrogen Atoms from Single?Crystal X?ray Diffraction by Including Estimated Hydrogen ADPs and Comparison to Neutron and QM/MM Benchmarks

    OpenAIRE

    Dittrich, Birger; L?bben, Jens; Mebs, Stefan; Wagner, Armin; Luger, Peter; Flaig, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Amino acid structures are an ideal test set for method?development studies in crystallography. High?resolution X?ray diffraction data for eight previously studied genetically encoding amino acids are provided, complemented by a non?standard amino acid. Structures were re?investigated to study a widely applicable treatment that permits accurate X?H bond lengths to hydrogen atoms to be obtained: this treatment combines refinement of positional hydrogen?atom parameters with aspherical s...

  5. Spectral element modelling of seismic wave propagation in visco-elastoplastic media including excess-pore pressure development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oral, Elif; Gélis, Céline; Bonilla, Luis Fabián; Delavaud, Elise

    2017-12-01

    Numerical modelling of seismic wave propagation, considering soil nonlinearity, has become a major topic in seismic hazard studies when strong shaking is involved under particular soil conditions. Indeed, when strong ground motion propagates in saturated soils, pore pressure is another important parameter to take into account when successive phases of contractive and dilatant soil behaviour are expected. Here, we model 1-D seismic wave propagation in linear and nonlinear media using the spectral element numerical method. The study uses a three-component (3C) nonlinear rheology and includes pore-pressure excess. The 1-D-3C model is used to study the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake (ML 6.6), which was recorded at the Wildlife Refuge Liquefaction Array, USA. The data of this event present strong soil nonlinearity involving pore-pressure effects. The ground motion is numerically modelled for different assumptions on soil rheology and input motion (1C versus 3C), using the recorded borehole signals as input motion. The computed acceleration-time histories show low-frequency amplification and strong high-frequency damping due to the development of pore pressure in one of the soil layers. Furthermore, the soil is found to be more nonlinear and more dilatant under triaxial loading compared to the classical 1C analysis, and significant differences in surface displacements are observed between the 1C and 3C approaches. This study contributes to identify and understand the dominant phenomena occurring in superficial layers, depending on local soil properties and input motions, conditions relevant for site-specific studies.

  6. Development of cost estimation tools for total occupational safety and health activities and occupational health services: cost estimation from a corporate perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagata, Tomohisa; Mori, Koji; Aratake, Yutaka; Ide, Hiroshi; Ishida, Hiromi; Nobori, Junichiro; Kojima, Reiko; Odagami, Kiminori; Kato, Anna; Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Matsuda, Shinya

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to develop standardized cost estimation tools that provide information to employers about occupational safety and health (OSH) activities for effective and efficient decision making in Japanese companies. We interviewed OSH staff members including full-time professional occupational physicians to list all OSH activities. Using activity-based costing, cost data were obtained from retrospective analyses of occupational safety and health costs over a 1-year period in three manufacturing workplaces and were obtained from retrospective analyses of occupational health services costs in four manufacturing workplaces. We verified the tools additionally in four workplaces including service businesses. We created the OSH and occupational health standardized cost estimation tools. OSH costs consisted of personnel costs, expenses, outsourcing costs and investments for 15 OSH activities. The tools provided accurate, relevant information on OSH activities and occupational health services. The standardized information obtained from our OSH and occupational health cost estimation tools can be used to manage OSH costs, make comparisons of OSH costs between companies and organizations and help occupational health physicians and employers to determine the best course of action.

  7. Development of a generalised equivalent estimation approach for multi-axle vehicle handling dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Jinquan; Guo, Konghui

    2016-01-01

    This paper devotes analytical effort in developing the 2M equivalent approach to analyse both the effect of vehicle body roll and n-axle handling on vehicle dynamics. The 1M equivalent vehicle 2DOF equation including an equivalent roll effect was derived from the conventional two-axle 3DOF vehicle model. And the 1M equivalent dynamics concepts were calculated to evaluate the steady-state steering, frequency characteristics, and root locus of the two-axle vehicle with only the effect of body roll. This 1M equivalent approach is extended to a three-axle 3DOF model to derive similar 1M equivalent mathematical identities including an equivalent roll effect. The 1M equivalent wheelbases and stability factor with the effect of the third axle or body roll, and 2M equivalent wheelbase and stability factor including both the effect of body roll and the third-axle handling were derived to evaluate the steady-state steering, frequency characteristics, and root locus of the three-axle vehicle. By using the recursive method, the generalised 1M equivalent wheelbase and stability factor with the effect of n-axle handling and 2M equivalent generalised wheelbase and stability factor including both the effect of body roll and n-axle handling were derived to evaluate the steady-state steering, frequency characteristics, and root locus of the n-axle vehicle. The 2M equivalent approach and developed generalised mathematical handling concepts were validated to be useful and could serve as an important tool for estimating both the effect of vehicle body roll and n-axle handling on multi-axle vehicle dynamics.

  8. Development and Application of Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) for Estimating Atrazine Concentration Distributions in Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Steven J.; Crawford, Charles G.; Gilliom, Robert J.

    2004-01-01

    Regression models were developed for predicting atrazine concentration distributions in rivers and streams, using the Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) methodology. Separate regression equations were derived for each of nine percentiles of the annual distribution of atrazine concentrations and for the annual time-weighted mean atrazine concentration. In addition, seasonal models were developed for two specific periods of the year--the high season, when the highest atrazine concentrations are expected in streams, and the low season, when concentrations are expected to be low or undetectable. Various nationally available watershed parameters were used as explanatory variables, including atrazine use intensity, soil characteristics, hydrologic parameters, climate and weather variables, land use, and agricultural management practices. Concentration data from 112 river and stream stations sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment and National Stream Quality Accounting Network Programs were used for computing the concentration percentiles and mean concentrations used as the response variables in regression models. Tobit regression methods, using maximum likelihood estimation, were used for developing the models because some of the concentration values used for the response variables were censored (reported as less than a detection threshold). Data from 26 stations not used for model development were used for model validation. The annual models accounted for 62 to 77 percent of the variability in concentrations among the 112 model development stations. Atrazine use intensity (the amount of atrazine used in the watershed divided by watershed area) was the most important explanatory variable in all models, but additional watershed parameters significantly increased the amount of variability explained by the models. Predicted concentrations from all 10 models were within a factor of 10 of the observed concentrations at most

  9. Scenario Based Municipal Wastewater Estimation: Development and Application of a Dynamic Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for estimation of wastewater quantity changes as a function of future socioeconomic development and the municipal water environment of the city under the influence of several key factors. Using Wuhan (a city with population more than 10 million in China as a case study, the variability of Wuhan’s wastewater quantity and water environment is modeled under different development patterns by year 2030. Nine future scenarios are designed by assigning different values to those key factors, including GDP growth rate, water consumption of annual ten thousand GDP, and wastewater treatment fee. The results show that (1 GDP growth leads to an increase in municipal wastewater quantity, but an increase in wastewater treatment fee can be in favor of reducing urban water pollution, and (2 the impact of per ten thousand yuan GDP water consumption on the amount of municipal wastewater is larger in the near future, while the impact of GDP growth rate is much larger in the long term. The dynamic model has proven to be reliable for simulating the municipal wastewater changes, and it could help decision makers to make the scientific and reasonable decisions.

  10. Cosmic X-ray Physics: Sounding rocket investigations of the diffuse X-ray background, including instrument development

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCammon, Dan

    We propose an investigation to improve our understanding of the Galactic diffuse X-ray background. The ultimate purpose of this is to determine the role of hot phases of the interstellar medium in mediating stellar feedback in star formation, in transport of metals, and in determining the structure and evolution of the Galaxy. It directly addresses SMD's astrophysics goal No. 2, to explore the origin and evolution of the galaxies, stars and planets that make up our universe. This work will involve a flight of an existing payload with small modifications in Woomera, South Australia, to observe the Galactic soft X-ray bulge and attempt to determine its nature and emission mechanisms. This flight should also either confirm or put strict upper limits on the "sterile neutrino" model for the 3.5 keV signal observed near the Galactic Center by XMM-Newton. Our investigation includes the development of thermal detectors with superconducting transition edge thermometers capable of 1-2 eV FWHM energy resolution in the 100-400 eV range with the intent of obtaining a scientifically useful spectrum on a sounding rocket flight of the emission from one million degree gas in this energy range. This will require a total area of 1-2 square centimeters for the detector array. To enable routine testing of such detectors in the lab and for necessary in-flight gain and resolution monitoring, we are trying to develop a pulsed-UV laser calibration source. In collaboration with Goddard Space Flight Center, we are investigating the practicality of waveguide-below-cutoff filters to provide the necessary attenuation of infrared radiation for these detectors while still allowing good x-ray transmission below 150 eV. The detectors, calibration source, filters, optimal high-rate pulse analysis and flight experience with the detector readouts are all relevant to future NASA major missions. The detectors we're working on for a low-energy sounding rocket flight would be an excellent match to what is

  11. Meta-analysis of the INSIG2 association with obesity including 74,345 individuals: does heterogeneity of estimates relate to study design?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heid, Iris M; Huth, Cornelia; Loos, Ruth J F

    2009-01-01

    with subjects selected for conditions related to a better health status ('healthy population', HP), and obesity studies (OB). We tested five hypotheses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. The meta-analysis of 27 studies on Caucasian adults (n = 66,213) combining the different study designs did......The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was identified for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)) in one of the first genome-wide association studies, but replications were inconsistent. We collected statistics from 34 studies (n = 74,345), including general population (GP) studies, population-based studies...... not support overall association of the CC-genotype with obesity, yielding an odds ratio (OR) of 1.05 (p-value = 0.27). The I(2) measure of 41% (p-value = 0.015) indicated between-study heterogeneity. Restricting to GP studies resulted in a declined I(2) measure of 11% (p-value = 0.33) and an OR of 1.10 (p...

  12. Performance of Predictive Equations Specifically Developed to Estimate Resting Energy Expenditure in Ventilated Critically Ill Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jotterand Chaparro, Corinne; Taffé, Patrick; Moullet, Clémence; Laure Depeyre, Jocelyne; Longchamp, David; Perez, Marie-Hélène; Cotting, Jacques

    2017-05-01

    To determine, based on indirect calorimetry measurements, the biases of predictive equations specifically developed recently for estimating resting energy expenditure (REE) in ventilated critically ill children, or developed for healthy populations but used in critically ill children. A secondary analysis study was performed using our data on REE measured in a previous prospective study on protein and energy needs in pediatric intensive care unit. We included 75 ventilated critically ill children (median age, 21 months) in whom 407 indirect calorimetry measurements were performed. Fifteen predictive equations were used to estimate REE: the equations of White, Meyer, Mehta, Schofield, Henry, the World Health Organization, Fleisch, and Harris-Benedict and the tables of Talbot. Their differential and proportional biases (with 95% CIs) were computed and the bias plotted in graphs. The Bland-Altman method was also used. Most equations underestimated and overestimated REE between 200 and 1000 kcal/day. The equations of Mehta, Schofield, and Henry and the tables of Talbot had a bias ≤10%, but the 95% CI was large and contained values by far beyond ±10% for low REE values. Other specific equations for critically ill children had even wider biases. In ventilated critically ill children, none of the predictive equations tested met the performance criteria for the entire range of REE between 200 and 1000 kcal/day. Even the equations with the smallest bias may entail a risk of underfeeding or overfeeding, especially in the youngest children. Indirect calorimetry measurement must be preferred. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Development of a Consistent GIS Based Method for Estimating the Groundwater Runoff Parameter for Regional Scale Precipitation-Runoff Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    As part of a U. S. Geological Survey effort to (1) estimate river discharge in ungaged basins, (2) understand runoff quantity and timing for watersheds between gaging stations, and (3) estimate potential future streamflow, a national scale precipitation runoff model is in development. The effort uses the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model. The model development strategy includes methods to assign hydrologic routing coefficients a priori from national scale GIS data bases. Once developed, the model can serve as an initial baseline for more detailed and locally/regionally calibrated models designed for specific projects and purposes. One of the key hydrologic routing coefficients is the groundwater coefficient (gw_coef). This study estimates the gw_coef from continental US GIS data, including geology, drainage density, aquifer type, vegetation type, and baseflow index information. The gw_coef is applied in regional PRMS models and is estimated using two methods. The first method uses a statistical model to predict the gw_coef from weighted average values of surficial geologic materials, dominant aquifer type, baseflow index, vegetation type, and the drainage density. The second method computes the gw_coef directly from the physical conditions in the watershed including the percentage geologic material and the drainage density. The two methods are compared against the gw_coef derived from streamflow records, and tested for selected rivers in different regions of the country. To address the often weak correlation between geology and baseflow, the existence of groundwater sinks, and complexities of groundwater flow paths, the spatial characteristics of the gw_coef prediction error were evaluated, and a correction factor developed from the spatial error distribution. This provides a consistent and improved method to estimate the gw_coef for regional PRMS models that is derived from available GIS data and physical information for watersheds.

  14. Meta-analysis of the INSIG2 association with obesity including 74,345 individuals: does heterogeneity of estimates relate to study design?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris M Heid

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The INSIG2 rs7566605 polymorphism was identified for obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2 in one of the first genome-wide association studies, but replications were inconsistent. We collected statistics from 34 studies (n = 74,345, including general population (GP studies, population-based studies with subjects selected for conditions related to a better health status ('healthy population', HP, and obesity studies (OB. We tested five hypotheses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity. The meta-analysis of 27 studies on Caucasian adults (n = 66,213 combining the different study designs did not support overall association of the CC-genotype with obesity, yielding an odds ratio (OR of 1.05 (p-value = 0.27. The I(2 measure of 41% (p-value = 0.015 indicated between-study heterogeneity. Restricting to GP studies resulted in a declined I(2 measure of 11% (p-value = 0.33 and an OR of 1.10 (p-value = 0.015. Regarding the five hypotheses, our data showed (a some difference between GP and HP studies (p-value = 0.012 and (b an association in extreme comparisons (BMI> or =32.5, 35.0, 37.5, 40.0 kg/m(2 versus BMI<25 kg/m(2 yielding ORs of 1.16, 1.18, 1.22, or 1.27 (p-values 0.001 to 0.003, which was also underscored by significantly increased CC-genotype frequencies across BMI categories (10.4% to 12.5%, p-value for trend = 0.0002. We did not find evidence for differential ORs (c among studies with higher than average obesity prevalence compared to lower, (d among studies with BMI assessment after the year 2000 compared to those before, or (e among studies from older populations compared to younger. Analysis of non-Caucasian adults (n = 4889 or children (n = 3243 yielded ORs of 1.01 (p-value = 0.94 or 1.15 (p-value = 0.22, respectively. There was no evidence for overall association of the rs7566605 polymorphism with obesity. Our data suggested an association with extreme degrees of obesity, and consequently heterogeneous effects from different study designs may

  15. Development of paint area estimation software for ship compartments and structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doo-Yeoun Cho

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The painting process of large ships is an intense manual operation that typically comprises 9–12% of the total shipbuilding cost. Accordingly, shipbuilders need to estimate the required amount of anti-corrosive coatings and painting resources for inventory and cost control. This study aims to develop a software system which enables the shipbuilders to estimate paint area using existing 3D CAD ship structural models. The geometric information of the ships structure are extracted from the existing shipbuilding CAD/CAM system and used to create painting zones. After specifying the painting zones, users can generate the paint faces by clipping structural parts inside each zone. Finally, the paint resources may be obtained from the product of the paint areas and required paint thickness. Implementing the developed software system to real shipbuilders' operations has contributed to improved productivity, faster resource estimation, better accuracy, and fewer coating defects over their conventional manual calculation methods for painting resource estimation.

  16. National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future Enhancements - Presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Stormwater Calculator (NSC) makes it easy to estimate runoff reduction when planning a new development or redevelopment site with low impact development (LID) stormwater controls. The Calculator is currently deployed as a Windows desktop application. The NSC is organ...

  17. Development of a surface isolation estimation technique suitable for application of polar orbiting satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, P. A.; Penn, L. M. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    A technique is developed for the estimation of total daily insolation on the basis of data derivable from operational polar-orbiting satellites. Although surface insolation and meteorological observations are used in the development, the algorithm is constrained in application by the infrequent daytime polar-orbiter coverage.

  18. Development of an on-line state estimator for fed-batch filamentous fungal fermentations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mears, Lisa; Stocks, Stuart M.; Albæk, Mads O.

    to monitor and control bioprocess systems. There is therefore an interest in state estimation, in order to model these key process states based on available on-line measurements [1]. This work discusses the application of a first principle model to pilot scale filamentous fungal fermentation systems operated...... pressure [4], [5]. This stoichiometric-based coupled process model is successfully applied on-line as a state estimator in order to predict the biomass and product concentration, from robust, available on-line measurements. Such state estimators will be valuable as part of control strategy development...... for on-line process control and optimization....

  19. Rating of Included Trials on the Efficacy–Effectiveness Spectrum : development of a new tool for systematic reviews

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wieland, L. Susan; Berman, Brian M.; Altman, Douglas G.; Barth, Jürgen; Bouter, Lex M.; D'Adamo, Christopher R.; Linde, Klaus; Moher, David; Mullins, C. Daniel; Treweek, Shaun; Tunis, Sean; van der Windt, Danielle A.; Zwarenstein, Merrick; Witt, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    Background and Objective Randomized trials may be designed to provide evidence more strongly related to efficacy or effectiveness of an intervention. When systematic reviews are used to inform clinical or policy decisions, it is important to know the efficacy–effectiveness nature of the included

  20. Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannayan, M; Mansoori, H; Rezaei, E Eyshi

    2014-04-01

    Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm(-1)) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.

  1. Developing a weighting strategy to include mobile phone numbers into an ongoing population health survey using an overlapping dual-frame design with limited benchmark information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Margo L; Ferguson, Raymond A; Hughes, Phil J; Steel, David G

    2014-09-04

    In 2012 mobile phone numbers were included into the ongoing New South Wales Population Health Survey (NSWPHS) using an overlapping dual-frame design. Previously in the NSWPHS the sample was selected using random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phone numbers. The survey was undertaken using computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). The weighting strategy needed to be significantly expanded to manage the differing probabilities of selection by frame, including that of children of mobile-only phone users, and to adjust for the increased chance of selection of dual-phone users. This paper describes the development of the final weighting strategy to properly combine the data from two overlapping sample frames accounting for the fact that population benchmarks for the different sampling frames were not available at the state or regional level. Estimates of the number of phone numbers for the landline and mobile phone frames used to calculate the differing probabilities of selection by frame, for New South Wales (NSW) and by stratum, were obtained by apportioning Australian estimates as none were available for NSW. The weighting strategy was then developed by calculating person selection probabilities, selection weights, applying a constant composite factor to the dual-phone users sample weights, and benchmarking to the latest NSW population by age group, sex and stratum. Data from the NSWPHS for the first quarter of 2012 was used to test the weighting strategy. This consisted of data on 3395 respondents with 2171 (64%) from the landline frame and 1224 (36%) from the mobile frame. However, in order to calculate the weights, data needed to be available for all core weighting variables and so 3378 respondents, 2933 adults and 445 children, had sufficient data to be included. Average person weights were 3.3 times higher for the mobile-only respondents, 1.3 times higher for the landline-only respondents and 1.7 times higher for dual-phone users in the mobile frame

  2. Development of an Estimating Procedure for the Annual PLAN Process - with Special Emphasis on the Estimating Group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lichtenberg, Steen

    2003-01-01

    This research study deals with the PLAN 2000 procedure. This complex annual estimating procedure is based on the Swedish law on financing, 1992:1537. It requires the Swedish Nuclear Power inspectorate, SKI, to submit to the Government a fully supported annual proposal for the following year's unit fee for nuclear generated electricity to be paid by the owners of the Swedish nuclear power plants. The function of this Fund, KAF, is to finance the future Swedish decommissioning programme. The underlying reason for the study is current criticism of the existing procedure, not least of the composition and working conditions of the analysis group. The purpose of the study is to improve the procedure. The aim is (1) to maximise the realism and neutrality of the necessary estimates in order to allow the KAF Fund to grow steadily at the current rate to the desired target size, allowing it to pay all relevant costs associated with this large decommissioning programme; (2) to do this with a controlled degree of safety; (3) to improve the transparency of the whole procedure in order to avoid any distrust of the procedure and its results. The scope covers all technical and statistical issues; and to some degree also the directly related organisational aspects, notably in respect of the present law and its administration. However, some details are dealt with which seem contrary to the aim of the law. Since 1996, SKI has delegated to the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., SKB, the task of performing the basic part of the necessary annual estimating procedure. SKI has then evaluated and supplemented the base estimate before the drafting of the final proposals for the Government and the Board of the Fund, KAFS. Some basic requirements are crucial to the quality of the result of the study: (1) full identification of all potential sources of major uncertainty and the subsequent correct handling of these, (2) balanced and unbiased quantitative evaluation of uncertain

  3. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

    2016-10-15

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

  4. Geocraft as a means to support the development of smart cities, getting the people of the place involved - youth included -

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, Henk; Fruijtier, Steven; Dias, Eduardo; Hettinga, Sanne; Opmeer, Mark; van Leeuwen, Willemijn S.; Linde, Marianne; Bos, Steven; Vaughan, Rubio; van Kaam, Heidy; van Manen, Niels; Fruijtier, Ceciel

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: In this paper we present Geocraft, a Geo-ICT framework meant to provide the information needed to support the development of smart cities in an accessible and user-friendly way. We explored whether Geocraft could be an effective way to get the people of the place, especially youth, involved

  5. Early Literacy and Early Numeracy: The Value of Including Early Literacy Skills in the Prediction of Numeracy Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purpura, David J.; Hume, Laura E.; Sims, Darcey M.; Lonigan, Cristopher J.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether early literacy skills uniquely predict early numeracy skills development. During the first year of the study, 69 3- to 5-year-old preschoolers were assessed on the Preschool Early Numeracy Skills (PENS) test and the Test of Preschool Early Literacy Skills (TOPEL). Participants were assessed again a…

  6. Development of the preparation technology of macroporous sorbent for industrial off-gas treatment including 14C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Il Hoon; Cho, Young Hyun; Park, Guen Il; Kim, In Tae; Kim, June Hyung; Ahn, Byung Kil

    2001-01-01

    For environmental and health effects due to increasing levels of pollution in the atmosphere, it is necessary to develop environmentally sound technologies for the treatment of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , CFC, etc.) and acid gases (SOx, NOx, etc.). Specifically, advanced technology for CO 2 capturing is currently one of the most important environmental issues in worldwide. 14 CO 2 , specially which has been gradually emerging issue in the nuclear facilities, is generated about 330 ppm from the CANDU (Canadian Deuterium Uranium Reactor) nuclear power plant and the DUPIC (Direct Use of spent PWR fuel in CANDU reactors) process which is the process of spent fuel treatment. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop the most efficient treatment technology of CO 2 capture by various lime materials in semi- or dry process, it should be also considering a removal performance, waste recycling and safety of disposal. In order to develop a highly active slaked lime as a sorbent for CO 2 and high temperature desulfurization, macroporous slaked lime is necessarily prepared by modified swelling process and equipment, which was developed under carrying out this project. And also for the optimal removal process of off-gases the removal performance tests of various sorbents and the effects of relative humidity and bed depth on the removal capacity must be considered

  7. Including Disabled Children in Learning: Challenges in Developing Countries. CREATE Pathways to Access. Research Monograph No. 36

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Alison

    2010-01-01

    This is an exploratory study suggesting ways of analysing challenges for developing countries in the move to greater inclusion of disabled children and young people in learning. The paper focuses on pedagogical challenges to realising more inclusive education. Pedagogy encompasses not only the practice of teaching and learning, but also the ideas…

  8. 45 CFR 287.130 - Can NEW Program activities include job market assessments, job creation and economic development...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... CHILDREN AND FAMILIES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES THE NATIVE EMPLOYMENT WORKS (NEW) PROGRAM...) Communication with any training, research, or educational agencies that have produced economic development plans...-sufficiency of program participants; (6) Surveys to collect information regarding client characteristics; and...

  9. Social Licence to Operate through a gender lens : The challenges of including women’s interests in development assistance projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jijelava, David; Vanclay, Frank

    2014-01-01

    The paper analyses the concept of social licence to operate from a gender perspective. We examine the challenges associated with obtaining a gender-aware social licence for development assistance organizations working in conservative, traditional rural societies. We argue that during project

  10. Comparison of the development of the communicative competence of the blind and visually impaired in institutions and including schooling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mateja Forte

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is a research, belonging to the domain of practical/usable linguistics. The basis of the presented content is the communicative competence and the issue of its development by blind and visually impaired children. The methodology, used in the research, consists of primary and secondary materials. The secondary ones are theoretical, from: linguistics, psychology, medicine, pedagogies and special pedagogies. The primary materials can be divided in two sections. The first one is a comparison of two educational models for blind and visually impaired children, one from mainstream schools and the other from specialized institutions. The second part consists of four structured interviews, the analysis of which gives us the answer about the difference in the development of the communicative competence of the blind and the visually impaired in consideration of the chosen model of schooling.

  11. Forensic age estimation based on development of third molars: a staging technique for magnetic resonance imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, J; Phlypo, I; Fieuws, S; Politis, C; Verstraete, K L; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    The development of third molars can be evaluated with medical imaging to estimate age in subadults. The appearance of third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) differs greatly from that on radiographs. Therefore a specific staging technique is necessary to classify third molar development on MRI and to apply it for age estimation. To develop a specific staging technique to register third molar development on MRI and to evaluate its performance for age estimation in subadults. Using 3T MRI in three planes, all third molars were evaluated in 309 healthy Caucasian participants from 14 to 26 years old. According to the appearance of the developing third molars on MRI, descriptive criteria and schematic representations were established to define a specific staging technique. Two observers, with different levels of experience, staged all third molars independently with the developed technique. Intra- and inter-observer agreement were calculated. The data were imported in a Bayesian model for age estimation as described by Fieuws et al. (2016). This approach adequately handles correlation between age indicators and missing age indicators. It was used to calculate a point estimate and a prediction interval of the estimated age. Observed age minus predicted age was calculated, reflecting the error of the estimate. One-hundred and sixty-six third molars were agenetic. Five percent (51/1096) of upper third molars and 7% (70/1044) of lower third molars were not assessable. Kappa for inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.76 to 0.80. For intra-observer agreement kappa ranged from 0.80 to 0.89. However, two stage differences between observers or between staging sessions occurred in up to 2.2% (20/899) of assessments, probably due to a learning effect. Using the Bayesian model for age estimation, a mean absolute error of 2.0 years in females and 1.7 years in males was obtained. Root mean squared error equalled 2.38 years and 2.06 years respectively. The performance to

  12. Training and knowledge development for use of software for safety analysis including ANSYS. Simulation of thermal-hydraulic benchmarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    Comparison of both axial mean and rms velocities of the current analysis with the benchmark submissions and experimental results were consistent, showing that the LES transient model of ANSYS CFX is applicable to the problem of T-junction mixing and to predict the location of thermal fatigue from temperature differences. Study of ICEM CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) should be able to provide more tools for a finer hexahedral mesh of the T-junction leading to better results. A video of the flow in time obtained from CFD Post is included with this report to help with visualizing the results of the temperature variation along the pipe

  13. Development and validation of aboveground biomass estimations for four Salix clones in central New York

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arevalo, Carmela B.M.; Volk, Timothy A.; Bevilacqua, Eddie; Abrahamson, Lawrence [Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210 (United States)

    2007-01-15

    Commercial and research scale plantings of short-rotation woody crops require reliable and efficient estimations of biomass yield before time of harvest. Biomass equations currently exist but the accuracy and efficiency of estimation procedures at the level of specificity needs to be quantified for clones being used in North America. Diameter-based allometric equations for aboveground biomass for four clones of willow (Salix discolor, Salix alba, Salix dasyclados, and Salix sachalinensis), between two sites (Canastota and Tully, NY), and across four years (1998-2001), were developed using ordinary least-squares regression (OLSR) on log-transformed variables, weighted least squares regression (WLSR) on log-transformed variables, and nonlinear regression (NLR) methods and validated using independent data sets. Biomass estimations derived from clone, age, and site (Specific) using OLSR equations had highest R{sup 2} and lowest percent bias (<2.3%) allowing for accurate estimations of standing biomass. Values for specific equations using WLSR were similar, but bias was higher for NLR (0.7-12.5%). However, the amount of time and effort required to develop specific equations, is large and in many situations prohibitive. Biomass estimates derived from clone and age, regardless of site (Intermediate), resulted in small increases in prediction error and a small increase in percent bias using OLSR (<0.4%) and WLSR (<1.7%). The increase in percent bias was larger (1.1-5.7%) for NLR equations. Intermediate models correspond to the loss of only a small amount of accuracy while gaining more efficiency in estimating standing biomass. Estimates of biomass derived from clone alone (general) equations, considering neither age nor site, had the weakest prediction abilities that may lead to large errors for biomass estimations using OLSR (7.0-9.5%), WLSR (1.1-21.7%) or NLR (31.9-143.4%). (author)

  14. Development and comparison of neural network based soft sensors for online estimation of cement clinker quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pani, Ajaya Kumar; Vadlamudi, Vamsi Krishna; Mohanta, Hare Krishna

    2013-01-01

    The online estimation of process outputs mostly related to quality, as opposed to their belated measurement by means of hardware measuring devices and laboratory analysis, represents the most valuable feature of soft sensors. As of now there have been very few attempts for soft sensing of cement clinker quality which is mostly done by offline laboratory analysis resulting at times in low quality clinker. In the present work three different neural network based soft sensors have been developed for online estimation of cement clinker properties. Different input and output data for a rotary cement kiln were collected from a cement plant producing 10,000 tons of clinker per day. The raw data were pre-processed to remove the outliers and the resulting missing data were imputed. The processed data were then used to develop a back propagation neural network model, a radial basis network model and a regression network model to estimate the clinker quality online. A comparison of the estimation capabilities of the three models has been done by simulation of the developed models. It was observed that radial basis network model produced better estimation capabilities than the back propagation and regression network models. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

  16. Informing Estimates of Program Effects for Studies of Mathematics Professional Development Using Teacher Content Knowledge Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Geoffrey; Kelcey, Benjamin; Jones, Nathan; Liu, Shuangshuang

    2016-10-03

    Mathematics professional development is widely offered, typically with the goal of improving teachers' content knowledge, the quality of teaching, and ultimately students' achievement. Recently, new assessments focused on mathematical knowledge for teaching (MKT) have been developed to assist in the evaluation and improvement of mathematics professional development. This study presents empirical estimates of average program change in MKT and its variation with the goal of supporting the design of experimental trials that are adequately powered to detect a specified program effect. The study drew on a large database representing five different assessments of MKT and collectively 326 professional development programs and 9,365 teachers. Results from cross-classified hierarchical growth models found that standardized average change estimates across the five assessments ranged from a low of 0.16 standard deviations (SDs) to a high of 0.26 SDs. Power analyses using the estimated pre- and posttest change estimates indicated that hundreds of teachers are needed to detect changes in knowledge at the lower end of the distribution. Even studies powered to detect effects at the higher end of the distribution will require substantial resources to conduct rigorous experimental trials. Empirical benchmarks that describe average program change and its variation provide a useful preliminary resource for interpreting the relative magnitude of effect sizes associated with professional development programs and for designing adequately powered trials. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. Estimating national water use associated with unconventional oil and gas development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Janet M.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.; Thamke, Joanna N.; Delzer, Gregory C.

    2016-05-18

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP) goals are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States and assist in the determination of the quantity and quality of water that is available for beneficial uses. These assessments would identify long-term trends or changes in water availability since the 1950s in the United States and help to develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast water avail- ability for future economic, energy-production, and environmental uses. The National Water Census (http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus/), a research program of the WAUSP, supports studies to develop new water accounting tools and assess water availability at the regional and national scales. Studies supported by this program target focus areas with identified water availability concerns and topical science themes related to the use of water within a specific type of environmental setting. The topical study described in this fact sheet will focus on understanding the relation between production of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) for energy and the water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development. This relation applies to the life-cycle of renewable and nonrenewable forms of UOG energy and includes extraction, production, refinement, delivery, and disposal of waste byproducts. Water-use data and models derived from this topical study will be applied to other similar oil and gas plays within the United States to help resource managers assess and account for water used or needed in these areas. Additionally, the results from this topical study will be used to further refine the methods used in compiling water-use data for selected categories (for example, mining, domestic self-supplied, public supply, and wastewater) in the USGS’s 5-year national water-use estimates reports (http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/).

  18. Let's Take it to the Clouds: The Potential of Educational Innovations, Including Blended Learning, for Capacity Building in Developing Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrinan, Hannah; Firth, Sonja; Hipgrave, David; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana

    2015-06-27

    In modern decentralised health systems, district and local managers are increasingly responsible for financing, managing, and delivering healthcare. However, their lack of adequate skills and competencies are a critical barrier to improved performance of health systems. Given the financial and human resource, constraints of relying on traditional face-to-face training to upskill a large and dispersed number of health managers, governments, and donors must look to exploit advances in the education sector. In recent years, education providers around the world have been experimenting with blended learning; that is, amalgamating traditional face-to-face education with web-based learning to reduce costs and enrol larger numbers of students. Access to improved information and communication technology (ICT) has been the major catalyst for such pedagogical innovations. We argue that with many developing countries already improving their ICT systems, the question is not whether but how to employ technology to facilitate the continuous professional development of district and local health managers in decentralised settings. © 2015 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  19. Developing a patient and family research advisory panel to include people with significant disease, multimorbidity and advanced age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portalupi, Laura B; Lewis, Carmen L; Miller, Carl D; Whiteman-Jones, Kerry L; Sather, Kay A; Nease, Donald E; Matlock, Daniel D

    2017-06-01

    People who have experienced illness due to significant disease, multimorbidity and/or advanced age are high utilizers of the health care system. Yet this population has had little formal opportunity to participate in guiding the health care research agenda, and few mechanisms exist for researchers to engage this population in an efficient way. We describe the process of developing a standing patient and family advisory panel to incorporate this population's voice into research in the USA. The panel was created at the University of Colorado. Preliminary panel development consisted of a needs assessment, information gathering and participant recruitment. We collected feedback from researchers who consulted with the panel and from panel members in order to better understand the experience from the patient and family member perspective. The patient and family research advisory panel consists of eight advisors who have experience with significant disease, multimorbidity and/or advanced age, two physicians and a program manager. The panel meets every other month for 2 hours with the main purpose of advising diverse researchers on health care studies. People with significant disease, multimorbidity and/or advanced age represent a growing demographic in the USA, and their engagement in research is essential as the model of health care delivery moves from volume to value. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-03-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  1. Development of Optimal Kalman Consensus Filter and its Application to Distributed Hybrid State Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshmukh, Raj

    Following recent advances in networked communication technologies, sensor networks have been employed in a broad range of applications at a lower cost than centrally supervised systems. Their major functionality is to track and monitor dynamic processes using various distributed estimation techniques. Specifically, we conduct a study of the process of concurrence between agents for the state of a system. This process of concurrence is known as `consensus', and is exhibited in the distributed Kalman Consensus Filter (KCF). This estimation algorithm fuses data from different connected sensor agents by achieving two objectives for each sensor: 1) locally estimating the state of the system; and 2) reaching a consensus of the state estimate between neighboring agents through communication. Although the conventional KCF has been proven to have superior performance in terms of stability and scalability, it relies on the approximated suboptimal consensus gain to avoid algorithmic and derivational complexity. Particularly, we seek to address this concern of sub-optimality, and analytically derive the closed form solution to the globally optimal consensus gain, which is characterized by the minimum mean squared error for the estimation process. We then expand the perspective of the system dynamics to evolve in a hybrid fashion. Hybrid dynamical systems can describe a larger class of dynamics, as the state evolution is given as a combination of differential equations and discrete state (mode) transition maps. The latter part of this thesis focuses on developing a distributed hybrid estimation algorithm that builds upon the concept of the multiple model based algorithm for state estimation of stochastic hybrid systems. While previous studies have used Kalman filtering for the bank of estimators that the conventional multiple model based algorithm employs, in this research, we use a distributed network to leverage the redundancy in a network and use the measurement data

  2. Development of Algal Interspecies Correlation Estimation Models for Chemical Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) is an application developed to predict the acute toxicity of a chemical from 1 species to another taxon. Web-ICE models use the acute toxicity value for a surrogate species to predict effect values for other species, thus potent...

  3. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR: LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT STORMWATER CONTROL COST ESTIMATION PROGRAMMING & FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future EnhancementsJason Berner1; Michael Tryby1; Scott Struck2, Dan Pankani2, Marion Deerhake3, Michelle Simon11. USEPA2. GeoSyntec, Inc.3. RTI, Inc.The National Stormwater Ca...

  4. Development of predictive models for estimating warfarin maintenance dose based on genetic and clinical factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lu; Linder, Mark W

    2013-01-01

    In this chapter, we use calculation of estimated warfarin maintenance dosage as an example to illustrate how to develop a multiple linear regression model to quantify the relationship between several independent variables (e.g., patients' genotype information) and a dependent variable (e.g., measureable clinical outcome).

  5. A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

    2011-01-01

    To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

  6. A comprehensive study including monitoring, assessment of health effects and development of a remediation method for chromium pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshinaga, Masafumi; Ninomiya, Hiromasa; Al Hossain, M M Aeorangajeb; Sudo, Makoto; Akhand, Anwarul Azim; Ahsan, Nazmul; Alim, Md Abdul; Khalequzzaman, Md; Iida, Machiko; Yajima, Ichiro; Ohgami, Nobutaka; Kato, Masashi

    2018-06-01

    Chromium (Cr) pollution caused by wastewater from tanneries is a worldwide environmental problem. To develop a countermeasure, we performed a comprehensive study using Hazaribagh, the tannery area in Dhaka City, Bangladesh, as a model. Our environmental monitoring indicated that the soluble form of Cr, but not barium or arsenic, in Buriganga River is derived from Hazaribagh. Our chemical analysis next showed that Cr, the primary pollutant in canal water at Hazaribagh, consisted of ≤0.7 μM hexavalent Cr [Cr(VI)] and ≤1705 μM trivalent Cr [Cr(III)]. Our biological study then showed that coexposure to Cr(VI) and Cr(III) at possible ratios in canal water at Hazaribagh synergistically promotes transforming activity of human non-tumorigenic HaCaT keratinocytes with activated MEK/ERK and AKT. Our environmental engineering study finally indicated that a magnesium and iron-based hydrotalcite-like compound (MF-HT), our original depurative, can maximally adsorb 9.0 mg/g Cr(VI) and 1041 mg/g Cr(III). Our results suggested the importance of removal of Cr(III) as well as Cr(VI) by showing that Cr(III), which is generally recognized as a chemical with low toxicity, synergistically promoted carcinogenicity of a low level of Cr(VI). Therefore, we propose the use of our original high-efficient and low-cost depurative as a countermeasure to address the worldwide problem of environmental Cr pollution. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Cosmic X-ray Physics: A Suborbital Investigation of the Diffuse X-ray Background Including Instrumentation Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCammon, Dan

    We propose an investigation to improve our understanding of the Galactic diffuse X-ray background. The ultimate purpose of this is to determine the role of hot phases of the interstellar medium in mediating stellar feedback in star formation, in transport of metals, and in determining the structure and evolution of the Galaxy. This work will involve a flight of an existing payload with small modifications in Woomera, South Australia, to observe the Galactic soft X-ray bulge and attempt to determine its nature and emission mechanisms. It will also involve the development of detectors capable of 1-2 eV FWHM energy resolution in the 100-400 eV range with the intent of obtaining a scientifically useful spectrum on a sounding rocket flight of the emission from one million degree gas in this energy range. This will require a total area of 1-2 cm^2 for the detector array. With the collaboration and advice of microwave experts at the Goddard Space Flight Center, we will fabricate and test waveguide-below-cutoff filters to provide the necessary attenuation of infrared radiation for these detectors while still allowing relatively good x- ray transmission below 300 eV. The detectors, filters, and flight experience with the detector readouts are all relevant to future NASA major missions. The filters would be particularly valuable in allowing thermal detectors (microcalorimeters) similar to those used here in the X-ray range to be applied to the EUV and vacuum ultraviolet, where they offer large potential gains over existing detectors. These investigations will provide the primary training for our graduate students, and will involve a substantial number of undergraduates.

  8. Development of estimation algorithm of loose parts and analysis of impact test data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Soo; Ham, Chang Sik; Jung, Chul Hwan; Hwang, In Koo; Kim, Tak Hwane; Kim, Tae Hwane; Park, Jin Ho

    1999-11-01

    Loose parts are produced by being parted from the structure of the reactor coolant system or by coming into RCS from the outside during test operation, refueling, and overhaul time. These loose parts are mixed with reactor coolant fluid and collide with RCS components. When loose parts are occurred within RCS, it is necessary to estimate the impact point and the mass of loose parts. In this report an analysis algorithm for the estimation of the impact point and mass of loose part is developed. The developed algorithm was tested with the impact test data of Yonggwang-3. The estimated impact point using the proposed algorithm in this report had 5 percent error to the real test data. The estimated mass was analyzed within 28 percent error bound using the same unit's data. We analyzed the characteristic frequency of each sensor because this frequency effected the estimation of impact point and mass. The characteristic frequency of the background noise during normal operation was compared with that of the impact test data. The result of the comparison illustrated that the characteristic frequency bandwidth of the impact test data was lower than that of the background noise during normal operation. by the comparison, the integrity of sensor and monitoring system could be checked, too. (author)

  9. Developing methodologies for estimation of manure across livestock systems using agricultural census data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Mohammad I.; Muldowney, John; Osborne, Bruce

    2017-04-01

    Livestock production and management-induced emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), comprising 18% of total global anthropogenic emissions together with air pollutants, have major atmospheric and ecosystem-related impacts. Identification of categorical/sub-categorical hotspots associated with these emissions and the estimation of emissions factors (EFs), including the use of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defaults (Tier 1), are key objectives in the preparation of reasonable, and transparent national reporting inventories (Tier 2). They also provide a basis for assessment of technological/management approaches for emissions reduction. For this, data on manure (solid/FYM and slurry/liquid) production across livestock categories, housing types and periods, storage types and application methodologies are required. However, relevant agricultural activity data are not sufficient to quantify the proportion and timing of the amounts of manure applied to major land use types and for different seasons. We have used the recent Census of Agriculture survey data 2010, collected by the Central Statistics Office, Ireland. Based on the compiled datasheets, several steps have been taken to generate missing information (e.g., number of individual livestock categories/subcategories) and to develop methodologies for calculating the proportion of slurry and manure production and application across farm categories. Among livestock categories, the proportion (%) of slurry over solids was higher for pigs (99:1) than the proportion derived from cattle (61:39). Solid manure production from other livestock systems derived mostly from loose-bedded houses. There were large differences between the proportions estimated using the number of farms and the livestock population. A major proportion of the slurry was applied to grassland (97 vs. 73) and the amounts applied in spring and summer were similar (40-42 vs. 36-39), but significantly higher than the autumn application (18 vs. 24

  10. Development of a novel ArcCHECK™ insert for routine quality assurance of VMAT delivery including dose calculation with inhomogeneities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fakir, H.; Gaede, S.; Mulligan, M.; Chen, J. Z.

    2012-01-01

    significantly higher monitor units (up to 70%). Conclusions: A versatile, nonhomogeneous insert was developed for ArcCHECK ™ for an easy and quick evaluation of dose calculations with nonhomogeneous media and for comparison of different treatment planning systems. The device was tested for SmartArc ® and RapidArc ® plans for lung SBRT, showing the uncertainties of dose calculations with inhomogeneities. The new insert combines the convenience of the ArcCHECK ™ and the possibility of assessing dose distributions in inhomogeneous media.

  11. Developing a framework for estimating the potential impact of obesity interventions in a European city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Malcolm; Bhanbhro, Sadiq; Green, Geoff; Lewis, Kevin; Hindle, Linda; Levy, Cathy

    2016-09-01

    Obesity is a global challenge for healthy populations. It has given rise to a wide range of public health interventions, focusing on supportive environments and lifestyle change, including diet, physical activity and behavioural change initiatives. Impact is variable. However, more evidence is slowly becoming available and is being used to develop new interventions. In a period of austerity, momentum is building to review these initiatives and understand what they do, how they do it and how they fit together. Our project seeks to develop a relatively straight forward systematic framework using readily accessible data to map the complex web of initiatives at a policy, population, group and individual level aiming to promote healthy lifestyles, diet and physical activity levels or to reduce obesity through medical treatments in a city or municipality population. It produces a system for classifying different types of interventions into groupings which will enable commissioners to assess the scope and distribution of interventions and make a judgement about gaps in provision and the likely impact on mean body mass index (BMI) as a proxy measure for health. Estimated impact in each level or type of intervention is based upon a summary of the scientific evidence of clinical and/or cost effectiveness. Finally it seeks, where possible, to quantify the potential effects of different types of interventions on BMI and produce a cost per unit of BMI reduced. This approach is less sophisticated but identifies the areas where more sophisticated evaluation would add value. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. A Development of Domestic Food Chain Model Data for Chronic Effect Estimation of Off-site Consequence Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Seok-Jung; KEUM, Dong-Kwon; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2015-01-01

    The FCM includes complex transport phenomena of radiation materials on a biokinetic system of contaminated environments. An estimation of chronic health effects is a key part of the level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), which depends on the FCM estimation from contaminated foods ingestion. A cultural ingestion habit of a local region and agricultural productions are different to the general features over worldwide scale or case by case. This is a reason to develop a domestic FCM data for the level 3 PSA. However, a generation of the specific FCM data is a complex process and under a large degree of uncertainty due to inherent biokinetic models. As a preliminary study, the present study focuses on an infrastructure development to generation of a specific FCM data. During this process, the features of FCM data to generate a domestic FCM data were investigated. Based on the insights obtained from this process, a specific domestic FCM data was developed. The present study was developed a domestic FCM data to estimate the chronic health effects of off-site consequence analysis. From this study, an insight was obtained, that a domestic FCM data is roughly 20 times higher than the MACCS2 defaults data. Based on this observation, it is clear that the specific chronic health effects of a domestic plant site should be considered in the off-site consequence analysis

  13. A Development of Domestic Food Chain Model Data for Chronic Effect Estimation of Off-site Consequence Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Seok-Jung; KEUM, Dong-Kwon; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The FCM includes complex transport phenomena of radiation materials on a biokinetic system of contaminated environments. An estimation of chronic health effects is a key part of the level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), which depends on the FCM estimation from contaminated foods ingestion. A cultural ingestion habit of a local region and agricultural productions are different to the general features over worldwide scale or case by case. This is a reason to develop a domestic FCM data for the level 3 PSA. However, a generation of the specific FCM data is a complex process and under a large degree of uncertainty due to inherent biokinetic models. As a preliminary study, the present study focuses on an infrastructure development to generation of a specific FCM data. During this process, the features of FCM data to generate a domestic FCM data were investigated. Based on the insights obtained from this process, a specific domestic FCM data was developed. The present study was developed a domestic FCM data to estimate the chronic health effects of off-site consequence analysis. From this study, an insight was obtained, that a domestic FCM data is roughly 20 times higher than the MACCS2 defaults data. Based on this observation, it is clear that the specific chronic health effects of a domestic plant site should be considered in the off-site consequence analysis.

  14. Analysis of Schedule Determination in Software Program Development and Software Development Estimation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-09-01

    Performed . . . 52 Software Development Standards . . . . . 53 Use of Management Principles . . . . . . 54 Software Programaer Ability...Manager Program Flow and Test Case Analyzer File Manager 107 Mitre Prolect Data (page 4 of 18) Project *24 ( ABC ,D) 24 A B C D Description of Factors

  15. Infant bone age estimation based on fibular shaft length: model development and clinical validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsai, Andy; Stamoulis, Catherine; Bixby, Sarah D.; Breen, Micheal A.; Connolly, Susan A.; Kleinman, Paul K. [Boston Children' s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Bone age in infants (<1 year old) is generally estimated using hand/wrist or knee radiographs, or by counting ossification centers. The accuracy and reproducibility of these techniques are largely unknown. To develop and validate an infant bone age estimation technique using fibular shaft length and compare it to conventional methods. We retrospectively reviewed negative skeletal surveys of 247 term-born low-risk-of-abuse infants (no persistent child protection team concerns) from July 2005 to February 2013, and randomized them into two datasets: (1) model development (n = 123) and (2) model testing (n = 124). Three pediatric radiologists measured all fibular shaft lengths. An ordinary linear regression model was fitted to dataset 1, and the model was evaluated using dataset 2. Readers also estimated infant bone ages in dataset 2 using (1) the hemiskeleton method of Sontag, (2) the hemiskeleton method of Elgenmark, (3) the hand/wrist atlas of Greulich and Pyle, and (4) the knee atlas of Pyle and Hoerr. For validation, we selected lower-extremity radiographs of 114 normal infants with no suspicion of abuse. Readers measured the fibulas and also estimated bone ages using the knee atlas. Bone age estimates from the proposed method were compared to the other methods. The proposed method outperformed all other methods in accuracy and reproducibility. Its accuracy was similar for the testing and validating datasets, with root-mean-square error of 36 days and 37 days; mean absolute error of 28 days and 31 days; and error variability of 22 days and 20 days, respectively. This study provides strong support for an infant bone age estimation technique based on fibular shaft length as a more accurate alternative to conventional methods. (orig.)

  16. Development of a conceptual flight vehicle design weight estimation method library and documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Andrew S.

    The state of the art in estimating the volumetric size and mass of flight vehicles is held today by an elite group of engineers in the Aerospace Conceptual Design Industry. This is not a skill readily accessible or taught in academia. To estimate flight vehicle mass properties, many aerospace engineering students are encouraged to read the latest design textbooks, learn how to use a few basic statistical equations, and plunge into the details of parametric mass properties analysis. Specifications for and a prototype of a standardized engineering "tool-box" of conceptual and preliminary design weight estimation methods were developed to manage the growing and ever-changing body of weight estimation knowledge. This also bridges the gap in Mass Properties education for aerospace engineering students. The Weight Method Library will also be used as a living document for use by future aerospace students. This "tool-box" consists of a weight estimation method bibliography containing unclassified, open-source literature for conceptual and preliminary flight vehicle design phases. Transport aircraft validation cases have been applied to each entry in the AVD Weight Method Library in order to provide a sense of context and applicability to each method. The weight methodology validation results indicate consensus and agreement of the individual methods. This generic specification of a method library will be applicable for use by other disciplines within the AVD Lab, Post-Graduate design labs, or engineering design professionals.

  17. The Development of Multi-Agent System of State Estimation of Electric Power Systems Using Event Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. V. Massel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The work objective is to offer a methodological approach to the development of multiagent systems (MAS in the energy sector. The agent approach is declared as an integral part of the Smart Grid concept (intelligent energy systems, but so far there is really neither methodological development and nor implementation in this area. The problem to estimate the states of electric power systems (EPS is one of the most important in the energy sector. Decentralization of calculations, when estimating the EPS states, allows reducing the host control center load and the amount of data transferred through the network.To achieve this aim were used the theory and methods for estimating the EPS state, artificial intelligence techniques, methods of object design and programming, multi-agent technologies, and algebraic Joiner-net network.The work analyses existing agent-based solutions, reveals their weaknesses, and proposes author's approach to MAS development in the energy sector, which includes 5 steps: 1 description of the future system, 2 construction and description of the agent-based scenarios, 3 MAS architecture development 4 MAS engineering design 5 MAS implementation.A novelty of the proposed approach lies in introduction of the agent interaction scenarios and application of Joiner-networks for scripting of scenarios. Agent-based scenarios allow nonprogrammers-experts to change the programme algorithm. A Joiner-network of the scenario consists of the functioning processes of agents (nodes, and the events that trigger or end the process. Output event of one process can be the input event for another.The operation algorithm of the EPS estimation system is developed. The first step is to provide decomposition of a nodalization diagram into the areas corresponding to the levels of node voltages. Then diagrams resulting from decomposition are distributed between the agents of EPS estimation and calculated in parallel. At the next stage, all diagrams are

  18. Development of mathematical model for estimation of entrance surface dose in mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelgani, Yassir Mohammed Tahir

    2013-05-01

    Computer simulation is a convenient and frequently used tool in the study of x-ray mammography, for the design of novel detector systems, the evaluation of dose deposition, x-ray technique optimization, and other applications. An important component in the simulation process is the accurate computer generation of x-ray spectra. A computer model for the generation of x-ray spectra in the mammographic energy rang from 18 keV to 40 ke V has been developed by Boone et al. Due to the lack of QC and dose measurement tools, in addition to unavailability of medical physics, a mathematical tool was developed for estimation of patient exposure and entrance dose. The proposed model require no assumptions concerning the physics of x-ray production in an x-ray tube, but rather makes use of x-ray spectra recently measured experimentally by John M Boone (Department of Radiology, University of California). Using experimental dose measurements for specific tube voltage and tube current the generated x-ray spectra were calibrated. The spectrum calibration factors show a tube voltage dependency. From the calibrated x-ray spectrum, the exposure and entrance dose were estimated for different k Vp and m A. Results show good agreement between the measured and estimated values for tube voltage between 18 to 45 k Vp with a good correlation of nearly 1 and equal slope. The maximum estimated different between the measured and the simulated dose is approximately equal to 0.07%.(Author)

  19. Development of the Korean Adult Reading Test (KART to estimate premorbid intelligence in dementia patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahyun Yi

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop a word-reading test for Korean-speaking adults using irregularly pronounced words that would be useful for estimation of premorbid intelligence. A linguist who specialized in Korean phonology selected 94 words that have irregular relationship between orthography and phonology. Sixty cognitively normal elderly (CN and 31 patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD were asked to read out loud the words and were administered the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, 4th edition, Korean version (K-WAIS-IV. Among the 94 words, 50 words that did not show a significant difference between the CN and the AD group were selected and constituted the KART. Using the 30 CN calculation group (CNc, a linear regression equation was obtained in which the observed full-scale IQ (FSIQ was regressed on the reading errors of the KART, where education was included as an additional variable. When the regressed equation computed from the CNc was applied to 30 CN individuals of the validation group (CNv, the predicted FSIQ adequately fit the observed FSIQ (R2 = 0.63. In addition, independent sample t-test showed that the KART-predicted IQs were not significantly different between the CNv and AD groups, whereas the performance of the AD group was significantly worse in the observed IQs. In addition, an extended validation of the KART was performed with a separate sample consisted of 84 CN, 56 elderly with mild cognitive impairment (MCI, and 43 AD patients who were administered comprehensive neuropsychological assessments in addition to the KART. When the equation obtained from the CNc was applied to the extended validation sample, the KART-predicted IQs of the AD, MCI and the CN groups did not significantly differ, whereas their current global cognition scores significantly differed between the groups. In conclusion, the results support the validity of KART-predicted IQ as an index of premorbid IQ in individuals with AD.

  20. Development of Environmental Load Estimation Model for Road Drainage Systems in the Early Design Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jin-Young; Lee, Dong-Eun; Kim, Byung-Soo

    2017-10-01

    Due to the increasing concern about climate change, efforts to reduce environmental load are continuously being made in construction industry, and LCA (life cycle assessment) is being presented as an effective method to assess environmental load. Since LCA requires information on construction quantity used for environmental load estimation, however, it is not being utilized in the environmental review in the early design phase where it is difficult to obtain such information. In this study, computation system for construction quantity based on standard cross section of road drainage facilities was developed to compute construction quantity required for LCA using only information available in the early design phase to develop and verify the effectiveness of a model that can perform environmental load estimation. The result showed that it is an effective model that can be used in the early design phase as it revealed a 13.39% mean absolute error rate.

  1. Estimation of interface resistivity in bonded Si for the development of high performance radiation detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanno, Ikuo; Yamashita, Makoto; Nomiya, Seiichiro; Onabe, Hideaki

    2007-01-01

    For the development of high performance radiation detectors, direct bonding of Si wafers would be an useful method. Previously, p-n bonded Si were fabricated and they showed diode characteristics. The interface resistivity was, however, not investigated in detail. For the study of interface resistivity, n-type Si wafers with different resistivities were bonded. The resistivity of bonded Si wafers were measured and the interface resistivity was estimated by comparing with the results of model calculations. (author)

  2. Estimation development cost, study case: Quality Management System Reactor TRIGA Mark III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antúnez Barbosa, Tereso Antonio; Valdovinos Rosas, Rosa María; Marcial Romero, José Raymundo; Ramos Corchado, Marco Antonio; Edgar Herrera Arriaga

    2016-01-01

    The process of estimating costs in software engineering is not a simple task, it must be addressed carefully to obtain an efficient strategy to solve problems associated with the effort, cost and time of activities that are performed in the development of an information system project. In this context the main goal for both developers and customers is the cost, since developers are worry about the effort pay-load and customers are worry about the product pay-load. However, in other fields the cost of goods depends on the activity or process that is performed, thereby deduce that the main cost of the final product of a development project software project is undoubtedly its size. In this paper a comparative study of common models for estimating costs are developed. These models are used today in order to create a structured analysis to provide the necessary information about cost, time and effort for making decisions in a software development project. Finally the models are applied to a case study, which is a system called Monitorizacion Automatica del Sistema de Gestion de Calidad del Reactor TRIGA Mark III. (author)

  3. Intrapuparial Development of Sarconesia Chlorogaster (Diptera: Calliphoridae) for Postmortem Interval Estimation (PMI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flissak, J C; Moura, M O

    2018-02-28

    Sarconesia chlorogaster (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) is an endemic blow fly species of forensic importance in South America, and whose duration of pupal development is about 70% of the total immature development time. Therefore, morphological changes during this stage, if refined, may provide greater accuracy and reliability in the calculation of minimum postmortem interval. Considering the importance of this species, the main objective of this work was to identify and describe temporal intrapuparial morphological changes of S. chlorogaster. The development of S. chlorogaster reared on an artificial diet and at two constant temperatures (20 and 25ºC) was monitored. Every 8 h until the end of the pupal stage, 10 pupae were killed, fixed, and had their external morphology described and photographed. Of the 29 morphological characteristics described, 13 are potentially informative for estimating the age of S. chlorogaster. In general, body shape (presence or absence of tagmatization), general coloration, visible presence of the mouth hook (portion of the mandible), thoracic appendages, change in eye color, and bristle formation are the most useful characteristics for determining specific age. The results presented here make it possible to estimate the postmortem interval of a corpse using intrapuparial morphological characters, expanding one's ability to estimate postmortem interval.

  4. Field Loss Estimation Of A Developed Rice Stripper Harvester In Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Reduction in post harvest losses must inevitably start with minimizing losses during harvesting. So far, grain stripping harvester is a technology which is being developed and is becoming effective for rice and wheat harvesting. Grain losses in stripping harvester occur at the gathering/stripping operation which are shattering, stubble and lodging losses. The harvest loss estimation of rice harvesting with a self propelled grain stripper developed in Nigeria was carried out. At best machine settings, determined were critical operating parameters to obtain total minimum harvest loss estimation which was 13.5% of the total yield while the manual harvesting loss was 20.3% under the same condition. The machine setting at this combination was rotor height of 270.0 mm, peripheral rotor speed of 670.0 rpm and forward speed was 3.0 km/h which gave shattering loss as 5.5%, stubble loss was 4.9% and lodging loss was 3.1% of the total yield. It was found that planting pure seed variety will reduce stripper header losses at harvest because it will result in uniform crop height at maturity which was one of the design factors that affected the harvester performance on the field. Keywords:Estimation, field loss, stripper, rice, developed

  5. Development of a Disaggregation Framework toward the Estimation of Subdaily Reference Evapotranspiration: 2- Estimation of Subdaily Reference Evapotranspiration Using Disaggregated Weather Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Parchami Araghi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Subdaily estimates of reference evapotranspiration (ET o are needed in many applications such as dynamic agro-hydrological modeling. However, in many regions, the lack of subdaily weather data availability has hampered the efforts to quantify the subdaily ET o. In the first presented paper, a physically based framework was developed to desegregate daily weather data needed for estimation of subdaily reference ET o, including air temperature, wind speed, dew point, actual vapour pressure, relative humidity, and solar radiation. The main purpose of this study was to estimate the subdaily ETo using disaggregated daily data derived from developed disaggregation framework in the first presented paper. Materials and Methods: Subdaily ET o estimates were made, using ASCE and FAO-56 Penman–Monteith models (ASCE-PM and FAO56-PM, respectively and subdaily weather data derived from the developed daily-to-subdaily weather data disaggregation framework. To this end, long-term daily weather data got from Abadan (59 years and Ahvaz (50 years synoptic weather stations were collected. Sensitivity analysis of Penman–Monteith model to the different meteorological variables (including, daily air temperature, wind speed at 2 m height, actual vapor pressure, and solar radiation was carried out, using partial derivatives of Penman–Monteith equation. The capability of the two models for retrieving the daily ETo was evaluated, using root mean square error RMSE (mm, the mean error ME (mm, the mean absolute error ME (mm, Pearson correlation coefficient r (-, and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient EF (-. Different contributions to the overall error were decomposed using a regression-based method. Results and Discussion: The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the daily air temperature and the actual vapor pressure are the most significant meteorological variables, which affect the ETo estimates. In contrast, low sensitivity

  6. Development of age-estimation system using thermoluminescence. Constant rising temperature control with optimal digital control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamaki, Shiro; Oshiro, Naoki; Yamamoto, Tetsuhiko; Kinjo, Hiroshi; Taira, Hatsuo; Tanahara, Akira.

    1994-01-01

    Thermoluminescence (TL) is a calorescence phenomenon observed while heating minerals. TL intensity depends on the total quantity of radiation dose in the past. Due to this characteristic, measuring of TL intensity of natural minerals has been paid much attention as a useful method of age-estimation in archaeological and geological fields. Since TL intensity depends on the heating rate of the specimen, a constant rising temperature control system is necessary. But, even a commercial apparatus for TL measurement usually fails the rising temperature characteristic. This paper progress a new TL age-estimating method. To establish for this, a temperature control system is designed and a measurement system for TL intensity is developed. The optimal digital feedback control algorithm based on impulse response of the system is applied to this temperature control system. The control result shows that the system can precisely control the constant rising temperature within permissible error of 1 degree for the temperature range of 150-400 degree centigrade. Then the system is introduced to TL age-estimation system of fossil-oyster. The age is estimated by calculating the proportion of the annual cumulative dose at sampling area to the sum of natural cumulative dose that obtained by integrated TL intensity measured at a constant rising temperature. This result is reasonable. (author)

  7. Developing a module for estimating climate warming effects on hydropower pricing in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.; Madani, Kaveh

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to alter hydropower generation in California through affecting the annual stream-flow regimes and reducing snowpack. On the other hand, increased temperatures are expected to increase hydropower demand for cooling in warm periods while decreasing demand for heating in winter, subsequently altering the annual hydropower pricing patterns. The resulting variations in hydropower supply and pricing regimes necessitate changes in reservoir operations to minimize the revenue losses from climate warming. Previous studies in California have only explored the effects of hydrological changes on hydropower generation and revenues. This study builds a long-term hydropower pricing estimation tool, based on artificial neural network (ANN), to develop pricing scenarios under different climate warming scenarios. Results suggest higher average hydropower prices under climate warming scenarios than under historical climate. The developed tool is integrated with California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) to facilitate simultaneous consideration of climate warming on hydropower supply, demand and pricing. EBHOM estimates an additional 5% drop in annual revenues under a dry warming scenario when climate change impacts on pricing are considered, with respect to when such effects are ignored, underlining the importance of considering changes in hydropower demand and pricing in future studies and policy making. - Highlights: ► Addressing the major gap in previous climate change and hydropower studies in California. ► Developing an ANN-based long-term hydropower price estimation tool. ► Estimating climate change effects on hydropower demand and pricing in California. ► Investigating the sensitivity of hydropower operations to future price changes. ► Underlining the importance of consideration of climate change impacts on electricity pricing.

  8. Magnetic resonance imaging of third molars: developing a protocol suitable for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, Jannick; Hillewig, Elke; Bogaert, Stephanie; Deblaere, Karel; Verstraete, Koenraad

    2017-03-01

    Established dental age estimation methods in sub-adults study the development of third molar root apices on radiographs. In living individuals, however, avoiding ionising radiation is expedient. Studying dental development with magnetic resonance imaging complies with this requirement, adding the advantage of imaging in three dimensions. To elaborate the development of an MRI protocol to visualise all third molars for forensic age estimation, with particular attention to the development of the root apex. Ex vivo scans of porcine jaws and in vivo scans of 10 volunteers aged 17-25 years were performed to select adequate sequences. Studied parameters were T1 vs T2 weighting, ultrashort echo time (UTE), fat suppression, in plane resolution, slice thickness, 3D imaging, signal-to-noise ratio, and acquisition time. A bilateral four-channel flexible surface coil was used. Two observers evaluated the suitability of the images. T2-weighted images were preferred to T1-weighted images. To clearly distinguish root apices in (almost) fully developed third molars an in plane resolution of 0.33 × 0.33 mm 2 was deemed necessary. Taking acquisition time limits into account, only a T2 FSE sequence with slice thickness of 2 mm generated images with sufficient resolution and contrast. UTE, thinner slice T2 FSE and T2 3D FSE sequences could not generate the desired resolution within 6.5 minutes. Three Tesla MRI of the third molars is a feasible technique for forensic age estimation, in which a T2 FSE sequence can provide the desired in plane resolution within a clinically acceptable acquisition time.

  9. Development of software and modification of Q-FISH protocol for estimation of individual telomere length in immunopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkovskaya, M Sh; Bogomolov, A G; Knauer, N Yu; Rubtsov, N B; Kozlov, V A

    2017-04-01

    Telomere length is an important indicator of proliferative cell history and potential. Decreasing telomere length in the cells of an immune system can indicate immune aging in immune-mediated and chronic inflammatory diseases. Quantitative fluorescent in situ hybridization (Q-FISH) of a labeled (C 3 TA[Formula: see text] peptide nucleic acid probe onto fixed metaphase cells followed by digital image microscopy allows the evaluation of telomere length in the arms of individual chromosomes. Computer-assisted analysis of microscopic images can provide quantitative information on the number of telomeric repeats in individual telomeres. We developed new software to estimate telomere length. The MeTeLen software contains new options that can be used to solve some Q-FISH and microscopy problems, including correction of irregular light effects and elimination of background fluorescence. The identification and description of chromosomes and chromosome regions are essential to the Q-FISH technique. To improve the quality of cytogenetic analysis after Q-FISH, we optimized the temperature and time of DNA-denaturation to get better DAPI-banding of metaphase chromosomes. MeTeLen was tested by comparing telomere length estimations for sister chromatids, background fluorescence estimations, and correction of nonuniform light effects. The application of the developed software for analysis of telomere length in patients with rheumatoid arthritis was demonstrated.

  10. Developing first time-series of land surface temperature from AATSR with uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John

    2013-04-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Earth Observation satellites provide the opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST approximately every 3 days or less. One such source of satellite retrieved LST has been the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR); with LST retrieval being implemented in the AATSR Instrument Processing Facility in March 2004. Here we present first regional and global time-series of LST data from AATSR with estimates of uncertainty. Mean changes in temperature over the last decade will be discussed along with regional patterns. Although time-series across all three ATSR missions have previously been constructed (Kogler et al., 2012), the use of low resolution auxiliary data in the retrieval algorithm and non-optimal cloud masking resulted in time-series artefacts. As such, considerable ESA supported development has been carried out on the AATSR data to address these concerns. This includes the integration of high resolution auxiliary data into the retrieval algorithm and subsequent generation of coefficients and tuning parameters, plus the development of an improved cloud mask based on the simulation of clear sky conditions from radiance transfer modelling (Ghent et al., in prep.). Any inference on this LST record is though of limited value without the accompaniment of an uncertainty estimate; wherein the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology quote an uncertainty as "a parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand that is the value of the particular quantity to be measured". Furthermore, pixel level uncertainty fields are a mandatory requirement in the on-going preparation of the LST product for the upcoming Sea and Land Surface Temperature (SLSTR) instrument on-board Sentinel-3

  11. Developing a Ballistic Software Kit to Estimate Vehicle Characteristics at the Draft Design Stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Maiorova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a ballistic software kit to calculate a moving vehicle trajectory in atmosphere and space. Such software gives an opportunity to accelerate the acquisition of flying vehicle’s ballistic parameters at the stage of draft design. It contributes to improving collaboration efficiency between adjacent departments involved in the project. The developed software kit includes three different programs: Trajectory-LAND© (motion in atmosphere with possible correction of a trajectory, Trajectory-SPACE© (motion in the non-central gravity field with possible simulation of maneuvers, Trajectory-LAUNCH© (launch-vehicle’s insertion into the orbit with possible defining the impact points of separated stages. Each of the software concedes the addition of computational modules to use the solution results of the basic task. Implemented mathematical models permit to take into account the influence of main perturbations on the flying vehicle during the flight. For illustration purposes, the article gives some examples of using each of the programs and their block-diagrams.The developed software implements some algorithms, which allow attaining the convergence of numerical simulation of differential equations of motion. This problem arises, for example, while determining an attitude in case the stages have already separated from the launch vehicle. The mathematical conversion from Rodriguez-Hamilton parameters into Euler’s angles disables us to obtain reliable values of attitude angles due to the limitations for existing area of inverse trigonometric functions being used. Incorrect values of pitch lead to raw and roll channels divergences. Moreover, the mistakes in attitude determination lead to mistakes in obtained values of attack angle, which is included into the forms for aerodynamic forces and torques. As a result, the solution of system of differential equations is a failure when a flying vehicle enters the height of 30-35 km. The

  12. Developing a Model to Estimate Freshwater Gross Primary Production Using MODIS Surface Temperature Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saberi, S. J.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Solomon, C.; Boucher, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Lakes contribute to local and regional climate conditions, cycle nutrients, and are viable indicators of climate change due to their sensitivity to disturbances in their water and airsheds. Utilizing spaceborne remote sensing (RS) techniques has considerable potential in studying lake dynamics because it allows for coherent and consistent spatial and temporal observations as well as estimates of lake functions without in situ measurements. However, in order for RS products to be useful, algorithms that relate in situ measurements to RS data must be developed. Estimates of lake metabolic rates are of particular scientific interest since they are indicative of lakes' roles in carbon cycling and ecological function. Currently, there are few existing algorithms relating remote sensing products to in-lake estimates of metabolic rates and more in-depth studies are still required. Here we use satellite surface temperature observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product (MYD11A2) and published in-lake gross primary production (GPP) estimates for eleven globally distributed lakes during a one-year period to produce a univariate quadratic equation model. The general model was validated using other lakes during an equivalent one-year time period (R2=0.76). The statistical analyses reveal significant positive relationships between MODIS temperature data and the previously modeled in-lake GPP. Lake-specific models for Lake Mendota (USA), Rotorua (New Zealand), and Taihu (China) showed stronger relationships than the general combined model, pointing to local influences such as watershed characteristics on in-lake GPP in some cases. These validation data suggest that the developed algorithm has a potential to predict lake GPP on a global scale.

  13. ANALYSIS OF EFFICIENCY OF R&D ACTIVITIES AMONG COUNTRIES WITH DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES INCLUDING REPUBLIC OF BELARUS WITH STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Zhukovski

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates efficiency of R&D activities based on the stochastic frontier analysis across 69 counties with developed and developing economies. Gross domestic expenditures on R&D in purchasing power parity, researchers per million inhabitants, technicians per million inhabitants are treated as inputs while patents granted to residents and scientific and technical journal articles are considered as outputs. According to the analysis results Costa Rica, Israel and Singapore are the most efficient in terms of transformation of available resources into the R&D results. What concerns Belarus it is necessary that additional investments in R&D go together with increasing efficiency of available resources’ usage. 

  14. Development of three dimensional hydrogeological model and estimation of groundwater storage in Japanese islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshigai, Masaru; Marui, Atsunao; Ito, Narimitsu; Yoshizawa, Takuya

    An optimum groundwater management which achieved a good balance between conservation and utilization is required to use the groundwater as sustainable water resources. On the recent groundwater management which uses a numerical simulation, it is important to understand the full breadth of groundwater basin and groundwater storage for evaluation the extent of human impact. However, previous study has not been clarified the full breadth of them throughout Japan, because basic information on the groundwater has not maintained still enough. The present work developed the three dimensional hydrogeological model in Japanese islands using the related database. And the groundwater storage was estimated based on the three dimensional hydrogeological model. As a result, to evaluate the full breadth of groundwater basin became possible from the sharply wide-range distribution of stratum. Moreover, we succeeded in providing the useful information such as development potential of unused groundwater resources for groundwater conservation and development.

  15. Development and validation of GFR-estimating equations using diabetes, transplant and weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stevens, L.A.; Schmid, C.H.; Zhang, Y.L.

    2009-01-01

    interactions. Equations were developed in a pooled database of 10 studies [2/3 (N = 5504) for development and 1/3 (N = 2750) for internal validation], and final model selection occurred in 16 additional studies [external validation (N = 3896)]. RESULTS: The mean mGFR was 68, 67 and 68 ml/min/ 1.73 m(2......BACKGROUND: We have reported a new equation (CKD-EPI equation) that reduces bias and improves accuracy for GFR estimation compared to the MDRD study equation while using the same four basic predictor variables: creatinine, age, sex and race. Here, we describe the development and validation...... of this equation as well as other equations that incorporate diabetes, transplant and weight as additional predictor variables. METHODS: Linear regression was used to relate log-measured GFR (mGFR) to sex, race, diabetes, transplant, weight, various transformations of creatinine and age with and without...

  16. Cesic: optomechanical technology last development results and new HBCesic highly light weighted space mirror development including corrective function 7th international conference on space optics, october 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devilliers, Christophe; Kroedel, Mathias

    2017-11-01

    Thales-Alenia-Space and ECM has developed a new SiC ceramic composite to produce very lightweight space mirrors and structure. Cesicmade by ECM has been selected for its own intrinsic properties ( high specific Young modulus, high conductivity , low CTE, high strength for a ceramics) and its large manufacturing capabilities. Recently a full monolithic space instrument for earth observation, with a monolithic Cesicstructure and with Cesicmirrors has been designed, manufactured and space qualified and is now ready for launch. The Cesictelescope assembly has been tested under shock environment, vibration loads, and full qualification thermal environment. All these qualification tests were done directly on the flight model. Extensive development has been also performed to design, size, manufacture and test a very light weight reflector shell made as a single part. This 1 meter reflective shell has an areal density of less than 10 Kg/m2 has been manufactured with its surface grounded to the bi parabolic shape. Such challenging areal density has requested a very thin skin associated with a ribs thickness of less than 2mm. In order to demonstrate the high stability and strength of Cesicthe reflector has been tested successfully under very aggressive environment up to 350°C and also an acoustic test with flight representative levels was successfully performed. To produce future very lightweight space mirrors ECM develop with the support of Thales-Alenia-Space since some years an improved version of Cesicceramic, called HB-Cesic©. HB-Cesicmade by ECM is developed for its higher intrinsic properties, Young modulus, strength and especially its direct polishing capabilities down to 3 nm micro-roughness. One of the major targets for this development was also to overcome size limitations of the C/C raw material of currently around 1x1 m to produce mirror up to 3,5 m diameter out of a single C/C raw material block. Under ESA study a 600 mm mirror with a surface density of only

  17. Developing a Cost Model and Methodology to Estimate Capital Costs for Thermal Energy Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glatzmaier, G.

    2011-12-01

    This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

  18. Estimation and Control in Agile Methods for Software Development: a Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitre-Hernández Hugo A.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The development of software (SW using agile methods is growing due to the productivity associated with these methodologies, in addition to the flexibility shown in small teams. However, these methods have clear weaknesses of software development in cost estimation and management, as well as the fact that project managers do not have enough evidence to verify the budget spending on a project due to the poor documentation generated and the lack of monitoring of resource spending. A proposal estimation and cost control in agile methods to solve these shortcomings. To this end, a case study was conducted in an agile software development company using the proposal for Software as a Service (SaaS and Web application projects. The results found were that the proposal generates a high degree of evidence for project managers, but it has shortcomings in the administration of the evidence for the control and decision making, which led to a definition of a decision making process to be coupled with the measurement proposal.

  19. Density functionals for surface science: Exchange-correlation model development with Bayesian error estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wellendorff, Jess; Lundgård, Keld Troen; Møgelhøj, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    A methodology for semiempirical density functional optimization, using regularization and cross-validation methods from machine learning, is developed. We demonstrate that such methods enable well-behaved exchange-correlation approximations in very flexible model spaces, thus avoiding the overfit......A methodology for semiempirical density functional optimization, using regularization and cross-validation methods from machine learning, is developed. We demonstrate that such methods enable well-behaved exchange-correlation approximations in very flexible model spaces, thus avoiding...... the energetics of intramolecular and intermolecular, bulk solid, and surface chemical bonding, and the developed optimization method explicitly handles making the compromise based on the directions in model space favored by different materials properties. The approach is applied to designing the Bayesian error...... estimation functional with van der Waals correlation (BEEF-vdW), a semilocal approximation with an additional nonlocal correlation term. Furthermore, an ensemble of functionals around BEEF-vdW comes out naturally, offering an estimate of the computational error. An extensive assessment on a range of data...

  20. Methodology development for estimating support behavior of spacer grid spring in core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Kyung Ho; Kang, Heung Seok; Kim, Hyung Kyu; Song, Kee Nam

    1998-04-01

    The fuel rod (FR) support behavior is changed during operation resulting from effects such as clad creep-down, spring force relaxation due to irradiation, and irradiation growth of spacer straps in accordance with time or increase of burnup. The FR support behavior is closely associated with time or increase of burnup. The FR support behavior is closely associated with FR damage due to fretting, therefore the analysis on the FR support behavior is normally required to minimize the damage. The characteristics of the parameters, which affect the FR support behavior, and the methodology developed for estimating the FR support behavior in the reactor core are described in this work. The FR support condition for the KOFA (KOrean Fuel Assembly) fuel has been analyzed by this method, and the results of the analysis show that the fuel failure due to the fuel rod fretting wear is closely related to the support behavior of FR in the core. Therefore, the present methodology for estimating the FR support condition seems to be useful for estimating the actual FR support condition. In addition, the optimization seems to be a reliable tool for establishing the optimal support condition on the basis of these results. (author). 15 refs., 3 tabs., 26 figs

  1. Development of a foraging model framework to reliably estimate daily food consumption by young fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deslauriers, David; Rosburg, Alex J.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2017-01-01

    We developed a foraging model for young fishes that incorporates handling and digestion rate to estimate daily food consumption. Feeding trials were used to quantify functional feeding response, satiation, and gut evacuation rate. Once parameterized, the foraging model was then applied to evaluate effects of prey type, prey density, water temperature, and fish size on daily feeding rate by age-0 (19–70 mm) pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). Prey consumption was positively related to prey density (for fish >30 mm) and water temperature, but negatively related to prey size and the presence of sand substrate. Model evaluation results revealed good agreement between observed estimates of daily consumption and those predicted by the model (r2 = 0.95). Model simulations showed that fish feeding on Chironomidae or Ephemeroptera larvae were able to gain mass, whereas fish feeding solely on zooplankton lost mass under most conditions. By accounting for satiation and digestive processes in addition to handling time and prey density, the model provides realistic estimates of daily food consumption that can prove useful for evaluating rearing conditions for age-0 fishes.

  2. Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jae Joo

    1998-03-01

    The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

  3. Development of prediction equations for estimating appendicular skeletal muscle mass in Japanese men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furushima, Taishi; Miyachi, Motohiko; Iemitsu, Motoyuki; Murakami, Haruka; Kawano, Hiroshi; Gando, Yuko; Kawakami, Ryoko; Sanada, Kiyoshi

    2017-08-29

    This study aimed to develop and cross-validate prediction equations for estimating appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM) and to examine the relationship between sarcopenia defined by the prediction equations and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) or osteoporosis in Japanese men and women. Subjects were healthy men and women aged 20-90 years, who were randomly allocated to the following two groups: the development group (D group; 257 men, 913 women) and the cross-validation group (V group; 119 men, 112 women). To develop prediction equations, stepwise multiple regression analyses were performed on data obtained from the D group, using ASM measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a dependent variable and five easily obtainable measures (age, height, weight, waist circumference, and handgrip strength) as independent variables. When the prediction equations for ASM estimation were applied to the V group, a significant correlation was found between DXA-measured ASM and predicted ASM in both men and women (R 2  = 0.81 and R 2  = 0.72). Our prediction equations had higher R 2 values compared to previously developed equations (R 2  = 0.75-0.59 and R 2  = 0.69-0.40) in both men and women. Moreover, sarcopenia defined by predicted ASM was related to risk factors for osteoporosis and CVD, as well as sarcopenia defined by DXA-measured ASM. In this study, novel prediction equations were developed and cross-validated in Japanese men and women. Our analyses validated the clinical significance of these prediction equations and showed that previously reported equations were not applicable in a Japanese population.

  4. Developing a model to estimate the potential impact of municipal investment on city health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Malcolm; Machaczek, Katarzyna; Green, Geoff

    2013-10-01

    This article summarizes a process which exemplifies the potential impact of municipal investment on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in city populations. We report on Developing an evidence-based approach to city public health planning and investment in Europe (DECiPHEr), a project part funded by the European Union. It had twin objectives: first, to develop and validate a vocational educational training package for policy makers and political decision takers; second, to use this opportunity to iterate a robust and user-friendly investment tool for maximizing the public health impact of 'mainstream' municipal policies, programs and investments. There were seven stages in the development process shared by an academic team from Sheffield Hallam University and partners from four cities drawn from the WHO European Healthy Cities Network. There were five iterations of the model resulting from this process. The initial focus was CVD as the biggest cause of death and disability in Europe. Our original prototype 'cost offset' model was confined to proximal determinants of CVD, utilizing modified 'Framingham' equations to estimate the impact of population level cardiovascular risk factor reduction on future demand for acute hospital admissions. The DECiPHEr iterations first extended the scope of the model to distal determinants and then focused progressively on practical interventions. Six key domains of local influence on population health were introduced into the model by the development process: education, housing, environment, public health, economy and security. Deploying a realist synthesis methodology, the model then connected distal with proximal determinants of CVD. Existing scientific evidence and cities' experiential knowledge were 'plugged-in' or 'triangulated' to elaborate the causal pathways from domain interventions to public health impacts. A key product is an enhanced version of the cost offset model, named Sheffield Health Effectiveness Framework

  5. Development of Turbulent Diffusion Transfer Algorithms to Estimate Lake Tahoe Water Budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B.; Schladow, S. G.; Reuter, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    The evaporative loss is a dominant component in the Lake Tahoe hydrologic budget because watershed area (813km2) is very small compared to the lake surface area (501 km2). The 5.5 m high dam built at the lake's only outlet, the Truckee River at Tahoe City can increase the lake's capacity by approximately 0.9185 km3. The lake serves as a flood protection for downstream areas and source of water supply for downstream cities, irrigation, hydropower, and instream environmental requirements. When the lake water level falls below the natural rim, cessation of flows from the lake cause problems for water supply, irrigation, and fishing. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms to correctly estimate the lake hydrologic budget. We developed a turbulent diffusion transfer model and coupled to the dynamic lake model (DLM-WQ). We generated the stream flows and pollutants loadings of the streams using the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) supported watershed model, Loading Simulation Program in C++ (LSPC). The bulk transfer coefficients were calibrated using correlation coefficient (R2) as the objective function. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for the meteorological inputs and model parameters. The DLM-WQ estimated lake water level and water temperatures were in agreement to those of measured records with R2 equal to 0.96 and 0.99, respectively for the period 1994 to 2008. The estimated average evaporation from the lake, stream inflow, precipitation over the lake, groundwater fluxes, and outflow from the lake during 1994 to 2008 were found to be 32.0%, 25.0%, 19.0%, 0.3%, and 11.7%, respectively.

  6. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-02-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  7. Development of an Android application to estimate the parameters of DEP from the radiographic exam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, Flavio Augusto P.; Soares, Carina Klein; Martins, Alex Sander C.; Filgueiras, Tatiana Pereira; Recalcatti, Victor; Heis, Adriano

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research was to develop an application for the Android operating system to calculate the entrance dose in the skin - DEP for the professional radiological techniques can estimate the dose absorbed by the patient. The application was written with the help of the ECLIPSE development suite together with the Google SDK. The DEP-Calc was designed to be used in a mobile device, so the program consists of simple and self-explanatory screens, occupies a small space in the internal memory of the device and is easy to use.To obtain the value of the DEP of a radiographic examination, the practitioner provides the variables used in the examination as well as the device, and from this information, the program calculates the value of the DEP. With its use, as well as meet a legal requirement, allows an improvement in image quality and dose optimization, since the professional has knowledge of the radiation produced. (author)

  8. Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 1: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, W. R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

  9. Detector development and background estimation for the observation of Coherent Neutrino Nucleus Scattering (CNNS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guetlein, Achim; Ciemniak, Christian; Feilitzsch, Franz von; Lanfranchi, Jean-Come; Oberauer, Lothar; Potzel, Walter; Roth, Sabine; Schoenert, Stefan; Sivers, Moritz von; Strauss, Raimund; Wawoczny, Stefan; Willers, Michael; Zoeller, Andreas [Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Physik-Department, E15 (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The Coherent Neutrino Nucleus Scattering (CNNS) is a neutral current process of the weak interaction and is thus flavor independent. A low-energetic neutrino scatters off a target nucleus. For low transferred momenta the wavelength of the transferred Z{sup 0} boson is comparable to the diameter of the target nucleus. Thus, the neutrino interacts with all nucleons coherently and the cross section for the CNNS is enhanced. To observe CNNS for the first time we are developing cryogenic detectors with a target mass of about 10 g each and an energy threshold of less than 0.5 keV. The current status of this development is presented as well as the estimated background for an experiment in the vicinity of a nuclear power reactor as a strong neutrino source.

  10. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

    2015-01-01

    Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

  11. Development of a package program for estimating ground level concentrations of radioactive gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilkamhang, W.

    1986-01-01

    A package program for estimating ground level concentration of radioactive gas from elevate release was develop for use on IBM P C microcomputer. The main program, GAMMA PLUME NT10, is based on the well known VALLEY MODEL which is a Fortran computer code intended for mainframe computers. Other two options were added, namely, calculation of radioactive gas ground level concentration in Ci/m 3 and dose equivalent rate in mren/hr. In addition, a menu program and editor program were developed to render the program easier to use since the option could be readily selected and the input data could be easily modified as required through the keyboard. The accuracy and reliability of the program is almost identical to the mainframe. Ground level concentration of radioactive radon gas due to ore program processing in the nuclear chemistry laboratory of the Department of Nuclear Technology was estimated. In processing radioactive ore at a rate of 2 kg/day, about 35 p Ci/s of radioactive gas was released from a 14 m stack. When meteorological data of Don Muang (average for 5 years 1978-1982) were used maximum ground level concentration and the dose equivalent rate were found to be 0.00094 p Ci/m 3 and 5.0 x 10 -10 mrem/hr respectively. The processing time required for the above problem was about 7 minutes for any case of source on IBM P C which was acceptable for a computer of this class

  12. Earth observations for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeFries, R.; Achard, F.; Brown, S.; Herold, M.; Murdiyarso, D.; Schlamadinger, B.; De Souza, C. Jr

    2007-01-01

    In response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process investigating the technical issues surrounding the ability to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation in developing countries, this paper reviews technical capabilities for monitoring deforestation and estimating emissions. Implementation of policies to reduce emissions from deforestation require effective deforestation monitoring systems that are reproducible, provide consistent results, meet standards for mapping accuracy, and can be implemented at the national level. Remotely sensed data supported by ground observations are key to effective monitoring. Capacity in developing countries for deforestation monitoring is well-advanced in a few countries and is a feasible goal in most others. Data sources exist to determine base periods in the 1990s as historical reference points. Forest degradation (e.g. from high impact logging and fragmentation) also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions but it is more technically challenging to measure than deforestation. Data on carbon stocks, which are needed to estimate emissions, cannot currently be observed directly over large areas with remote sensing. Guidelines for carbon accounting from deforestation exist and are available in approved Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and can be applied at national scales in the absence of forest inventory or other data. Key constraints for implementing programs to monitor greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation are international commitment of resources to increase capacity, coordination of observations to ensure pan-tropical coverage, access to free or low-cost data, and standard and consensual protocols for data interpretation and analysis

  13. Airframe RDT&E Cost Estimating: A Justification for and Development of Unique Cost Estimating Relationships According to Aircraft Type.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-09-01

    used as a basis of support for the subsequent regression 39 equations. And finally, the development process serves as an instrument to support the...8217 . ; ;AI - U .*- .. ." ... , -Lt" U :% 170.,, ..’ ,:, -:iZ,: . APPENDIX G FACTOR ANALYSIS INITIAL 1 71 239= RUN UKI FACTOR ANALISIS 𔃾

  14. THE REPUBLIC OF BASHKORTOSTAN: THE ESTIMATION OF SOCIAL ECONOMICAL SITUATION AND PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.V. Fattakhov

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The Republic of Bashkortostan is a well-developed agricultural and industrial region of the country, significant scientific and cultural centre of Russian Federation. Large economic complex of the Republic includes diversified industry and agriculture. During the years of transformations Bashkortostan was keeping its agricultural industry and scientific-technical potential, social-economical and political stability, it brings the worthy contribution in the development of Russian Federation.

  15. Estimating patient dose from CT exams that use automatic exposure control: Development and validation of methods to accurately estimate tube current values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Kyle; Bostani, Maryam; Cagnon, Christopher H; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; McCollough, Cynthia H; McNitt-Gray, Michael F

    2017-08-01

    The vast majority of body CT exams are performed with automatic exposure control (AEC), which adapts the mean tube current to the patient size and modulates the tube current either angularly, longitudinally or both. However, most radiation dose estimation tools are based on fixed tube current scans. Accurate estimates of patient dose from AEC scans require knowledge of the tube current values, which is usually unavailable. The purpose of this work was to develop and validate methods to accurately estimate the tube current values prescribed by one manufacturer's AEC system to enable accurate estimates of patient dose. Methods were developed that took into account available patient attenuation information, user selected image quality reference parameters and x-ray system limits to estimate tube current values for patient scans. Methods consistent with AAPM Report 220 were developed that used patient attenuation data that were: (a) supplied by the manufacturer in the CT localizer radiograph and (b) based on a simulated CT localizer radiograph derived from image data. For comparison, actual tube current values were extracted from the projection data of each patient. Validation of each approach was based on data collected from 40 pediatric and adult patients who received clinically indicated chest (n = 20) and abdomen/pelvis (n = 20) scans on a 64 slice multidetector row CT (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). For each patient dataset, the following were collected with Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval: (a) projection data containing actual tube current values at each projection view, (b) CT localizer radiograph (topogram) and (c) reconstructed image data. Tube current values were estimated based on the actual topogram (actual-topo) as well as the simulated topogram based on image data (sim-topo). Each of these was compared to the actual tube current values from the patient scan. In addition, to assess the accuracy of each method in estimating

  16. Developing a methodology for the inverse estimation of root architectural parameters from field based sampling schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morandage, Shehan; Schnepf, Andrea; Vanderborght, Jan; Javaux, Mathieu; Leitner, Daniel; Laloy, Eric; Vereecken, Harry

    2017-04-01

    Root traits are increasingly important in breading of new crop varieties. E.g., longer and fewer lateral roots are suggested to improve drought resistance of wheat. Thus, detailed root architectural parameters are important. However, classical field sampling of roots only provides more aggregated information such as root length density (coring), root counts per area (trenches) or root arrival curves at certain depths (rhizotubes). We investigate the possibility of obtaining the information about root system architecture of plants using field based classical root sampling schemes, based on sensitivity analysis and inverse parameter estimation. This methodology was developed based on a virtual experiment where a root architectural model was used to simulate root system development in a field, parameterized for winter wheat. This information provided the ground truth which is normally unknown in a real field experiment. The three sampling schemes coring, trenching, and rhizotubes where virtually applied to and aggregated information computed. Morris OAT global sensitivity analysis method was then performed to determine the most sensitive parameters of root architecture model for the three different sampling methods. The estimated means and the standard deviation of elementary effects of a total number of 37 parameters were evaluated. Upper and lower bounds of the parameters were obtained based on literature and published data of winter wheat root architectural parameters. Root length density profiles of coring, arrival curve characteristics observed in rhizotubes, and root counts in grids of trench profile method were evaluated statistically to investigate the influence of each parameter using five different error functions. Number of branches, insertion angle inter-nodal distance, and elongation rates are the most sensitive parameters and the parameter sensitivity varies slightly with the depth. Most parameters and their interaction with the other parameters show

  17. Development of an estimated food record for 9-36-month-old toddlers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbig, A; Drossard, C; Kersting, M; Alexy, U

    2014-08-01

    Adequacy of dietary intake in the sensitive period of toddler development is a key determinant of health in a short- and long-term perspective. Therefore, studies focussing the nutrition of toddlers are of importance. For this purpose, tailored dietary record methods are an important prerequisite. The objective of this work is to develop a toddler-specific estimated food record (EFR) in a booklet providing photographs of age-specific foods and portion sizes that should be accurate and simple. For a toddler study in Germany, a 7-day consecutive EFR was developed. Data were obtained from a sample of toddlers in Germany. The basis is an evaluation of 3-day weighing food records on food choice and portion size of the DONALD (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed) study for 227 toddlers (118 boys) aged 9-36 months from January 2004 to March 2008. In the analysed food records, a total of 15.147 eating occasions with 24.820 dishes were reported and grouped in 17 food groups. To estimate the portion size, the median consumption amounts of the 194 most frequently consumed dishes were calculated and photographed. Formula and commercial complementary food are collected separately. EFR was structured into seven eating occasions of the day: before breakfast, breakfast, mid-morning, lunch, mid-afternoon, dinner, and before bed. The EFR booklet provides a simple, feasible and validated instrument that can be used to update information on dietary habits during the transition from infant to childhood diet for families in different social classes.

  18. Development of Flight-Test Performance Estimation Techniques for Small Unmanned Aerial Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrink, Matthew Henry

    This dissertation provides a flight-testing framework for assessing the performance of fixed-wing, small-scale unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) by leveraging sub-system models of components unique to these vehicles. The development of the sub-system models, and their links to broader impacts on sUAS performance, is the key contribution of this work. The sub-system modeling and analysis focuses on the vehicle's propulsion, navigation and guidance, and airframe components. Quantification of the uncertainty in the vehicle's power available and control states is essential for assessing the validity of both the methods and results obtained from flight-tests. Therefore, detailed propulsion and navigation system analyses are presented to validate the flight testing methodology. Propulsion system analysis required the development of an analytic model of the propeller in order to predict the power available over a range of flight conditions. The model is based on the blade element momentum (BEM) method. Additional corrections are added to the basic model in order to capture the Reynolds-dependent scale effects unique to sUAS. The model was experimentally validated using a ground based testing apparatus. The BEM predictions and experimental analysis allow for a parameterized model relating the electrical power, measurable during flight, to the power available required for vehicle performance analysis. Navigation system details are presented with a specific focus on the sensors used for state estimation, and the resulting uncertainty in vehicle state. Uncertainty quantification is provided by detailed calibration techniques validated using quasi-static and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) ground based testing. The HIL methods introduced use a soft real-time flight simulator to provide inertial quality data for assessing overall system performance. Using this tool, the uncertainty in vehicle state estimation based on a range of sensors, and vehicle operational environments is

  19. Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

    2012-11-01

    In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

  20. Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) Best Estimated Trajectory Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Greg N.; Brown, Aaron

    2016-01-01

    The Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission successfully flew on Dec 5, 2014 atop a Delta IV Heavy launch vehicle. The goal of Orions maiden flight was to stress the system by placing an uncrewed vehicle on a high-energy trajectory replicating conditions similar to those that would be experienced when returning from an asteroid or a lunar mission. The Orion navigation team combined all trajectory data from the mission into a Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) product. There were significant challenges in data reconstruction and many lessons were learned for future missions. The team used an estimation filter incorporating radar tracking, onboard sensors (Global Positioning System and Inertial Measurement Unit), and day-of-flight weather balloons to evaluate the true trajectory flown by Orion. Data was published for the entire Orion EFT-1 flight, plus objects jettisoned during entry such as the Forward Bay Cover. The BET customers include approximately 20 disciplines within Orion who will use the information for evaluating vehicle performance and influencing future design decisions.

  1. Development of an Airborne System for Direct Validation of Regional Carbon Flux Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, G.; Kawa, S. R.; Hanisco, T. F.; Newman, P. A.

    2015-12-01

    Global distributions of greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks, principally CO2 and CH4, and characterization of the processes that control them, comprise a key uncertainty in projections of future climate. A broad spectrum of tools is currently used to characterize these processes. Top-down inversions of orbital GHG column observations (e.g. ACOS/GOSAT and OCO-2) provide a global perspective, but little information is available to validate these estimates. Indirect (boundary-layer budget) or direct (tower-based eddy covariance) surface flux measurements can provide bottom-up constraints, but the former is typically focused on large point and area emission sources while the latter relies on sparse networks with limited spatial coverage. Aircraft are an ideal platform to bridge the flux representation scale from kilometers (as measured from towers) to the tens or hundreds of kilometers relevant to satellite observations and global models. In light of current measurement gaps and the emerging need for direct validation of GHG surface flux estimates, NASA is developing a sophisticated facility for airborne eddy covariance observations of carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor and other trace gases. Three components comprise the core measurement system: i) the NASA Wallops Sherpa, which is ideal for airborne eddy covariance due to its substantial payload and the ability to fly low and slow, ii) commercial GHG sensors optimized for airborne flux measurements, and iii) a custom gust-probe system for high-fidelity measurements of vertical wind velocity. These systems will be discussed in detail, along with future plans for deployment and application of measurements to improving GHG flux estimates on local, regional and global scales.

  2. DEVELOPMENT OF NEW HYPERSPECTRAL ANGLE INDEX FOR ESTIMATION OF SOIL MOISTURE USING IN SITU SPECTRAL MEASURMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Mobasheri

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Near-surface soil moisture is one of the crucial variables in hydrological processes, which influences the exchange of water and energy fluxes at the land surface/atmosphere interface. Accurate estimate of the spatial and temporal variations of soil moisture is critical for numerous environmental studies. On the other hand, information of distributed soil moisture at large scale with reasonable spatial and temporal resolution is required for improving climatic and hydrologic modeling and prediction. The advent of hyperspectral imagery has allowed examination of continuous spectra not possible with isolated bands in multispectral imagery. In addition to high spectral resolution for individual band analyses, the contiguous narrow bands show characteristics of related absorption features, such as effects of strong absorptions on the band depths of adjacent absorptions. Our objective in this study was to develop a new spectral angle index to estimate soil moisture based on spectral region (350 and 2500 nm. In this paper, using spectral observations made by ASD Spectroradiometer for predicting soil moisture content, two soil indices were also investigated involving the Perpendicular Drought Index (PDI, NMDI (Normalized Multi-band Drought Index indices. Correlation and regression analysis showed a high relationship between PDI and the soil moisture percent (R2 = 0.9537 and NMDI (R2 = 0.9335. Furthermore, we also simulated these data according to the spectral range of some sensors such as MODIS, ASTER, ALI and ETM+. Indices relevant these sensors have high correlation with soil moisture data. Finally, we proposed a new angle index which shows significant relationship between new angle index and the soil moisture percentages (R2 = 0.9432.angle index relevant bands 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 MODIS also showing high accuracy in estimation of soil moisture (R2 = 0.719.

  3. Estimation of CO2 emission from water treatment plant--model development and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyung, Daeseung; Kim, Dongwook; Park, Nosuk; Lee, Woojin

    2013-12-15

    A comprehensive mathematical model developed for this study was used to compare estimates of on-site and off-site CO2 emissions, from conventional and advanced water treatment plants (WTPs). When 200,000 m(3) of raw water at 10 NTU (Nepthelometric Turbidity Unit) was treated by a conventional WTP to 0.1 NTU using aluminum sulfate as a coagulant, the total CO2 emissions were estimated to be 790 ± 228 (on-site) and 69,596 ± 3950 (off-site) kg CO2e/d. The emissions from an advanced WTP containing micro-filtration (MF) membrane and ozone disinfection processes; treating the same raw water to 0.005 NTU, were estimated to be 395 ± 115 (on-site) and 38,197 ± 2922 (off-site) kg CO2e/d. The on-site CO2 emissions from the advanced WTP were half that from the conventional WTP due to much lower use of coagulant. On the other hand, off-site CO2 emissions due to consumption of electricity were 2.14 times higher for the advanced WTP, due to the demands for operation of the MF membrane and ozone disinfection processes. However, the lower use of chemicals in the advanced WTP decreased off-site CO2 emissions related to chemical production and transportation. Overall, total CO2 emissions from the conventional WTP were 1.82 times higher than that from the advanced WTP. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the advanced WTP to suggest tactics for simultaneously reducing CO2 emissions further and enhancing water quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Methodology in the Assessment of Construction and Development Investment Projects, Including the Graphic Multi-Criteria Analysis – a Systemic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranko, Elżbieta

    2017-10-01

    Assessment of variant solutions developed for a building investment project needs to be made at the stage of planning. While considering alternative solutions, the investor defines various criteria, but a direct evaluation of the degree of their fulfilment by developed variant solutions can be very difficult. In practice, there are different methods which enable the user to include a large number of parameters into an analysis, but their implementation can be challenging. Some methods require advanced mathematical computations, preceded by complicating input data processing, and the generated results may not lend themselves easily to interpretation. Hence, during her research, the author has developed a systemic approach, which involves several methods and whose goal is to compare their outcome. The final stage of the proposed method consists of graphic interpretation of results. The method has been tested on a variety of building and development projects.

  5. Automatic performance estimation of conceptual temperature control system design for rapid development of real system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Yu Jin

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an automatic performance estimation scheme of conceptual temperature control system with multi-heater configuration prior to constructing the physical system for achieving rapid validation of the conceptual design. An appropriate low-order discrete-time model, which will be used in the controller design, is constructed after determining several basic factors including the geometric shape of controlled object and heaters, material properties, heater arrangement, etc. The proposed temperature controller, which adopts the multivariable GPC (generalized predictive control) scheme with scale factors, is then constructed automatically based on the above model. The performance of the conceptual temperature control system is evaluated by using a FEM (finite element method) simulation combined with the controller.

  6. Developing a methodology for estimating the drag in front-crawl swimming at various velocities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narita, Kenzo; Nakashima, Motomu; Takagi, Hideki

    2017-03-21

    We aimed to develop a new method for evaluating the drag in front-crawl swimming at various velocities and at full stroke. In this study, we introduce the basic principle and apparatus for the new method, which estimates the drag in swimming using measured values of residual thrust (MRT). Furthermore, we applied the MRT to evaluate the active drag (Da) and compared it with the passive drag (Dp) measured for the same swimmers. Da was estimated in five-stages for velocities ranging from 1.0 to 1.4ms -1 ; Dp was measured at flow velocities ranging from 0.9 to 1.5ms -1 at intervals of 0.1ms -1 . The variability in the values of Da at MRT was also investigated for two swimmers. According to the results, Da (Da=32.3 v 3.3 , N=30, R 2 =0.90) was larger than Dp (Dp=23.5 v 2.0 , N=42, R 2 =0.89) and the variability in Da for the two swimmers was 6.5% and 3.0%. MRT can be used to evaluate Da at various velocities and is special in that it can be applied to various swimming styles. Therefore, the evaluation of drag in swimming using MRT is expected to play a role in establishing the fundamental data for swimming. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Reliability of Third Molar Development for Age Estimation by Radiographic Examination (Demirjian's Method).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Sushil B; Patil, Swapnil N; Kamble, Seema D; Mowade, Tushar; Motghare, Pavan

    2014-05-01

    Dental age estimation methods are of particular value because teeth are highly resistant to mechanical, chemical, or physical impacts and time. Teeth are the strongest parts in the human body and are therefore very resistant to external influences, such as extreme temperatures, explosions, and other extreme conditions, which make them available for extensive postmortem periods. To correlate chronological age with dental age using Demirijian's method. The study was carried out on 100 digital orthopantamograms (OPG) of patients in the age group of 7 to 24 years. During the analysis, Magnify' and Ruler' tools were used. Mandibular right third molar was used for entire study. Data collected was analysed by using SPSS software. Development of third molar in all stages was found slightly earlier in males than in females, when chronological age was compared with dental age using Demirjian method. 88% subject showed statistically significant linear correlation between chronological age and developmental age using Demirjian's method. The linear correlation between chronological age and dental age using to Demirjian's method was more in age group above 16 years and less in age group below 16 years. Demirijian's method is a reliable guide for age estimation in age group of 7 to 24 years of age.

  8. Development and evaluation of a multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis analyzer for estimating acupoint composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Soo-Byeong; Lee, Na-Ra; Shin, Tae-Min; Lee, Yong-Heum

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to suggest a new method of estimating acupoint compositions by using a multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MF-BIA) method at 5 kHz, 50 kHz and 200 kHz within 2 cm of acupoints divided into local segments. To verify the system developed, we confirmed the stable occurrence of a constant current at every frequency, regardless of the impedance connected to the electrodes. Moreover, we found left and right distal bicep brachii aponeurosis to be identical by using ultrasound imaging, and we analyzed the repeatability of the findings by making 10 consecutive sets of measurements (p > 0.05). To evaluate the practical use of the acupoint composition, we used the MF-BIA analyzer to measure the left and right LU3, LU4, and LU9 at the lung meridian. We confirmed that the potentials generated were equal to the changes in the cell membrane function, which were caused by the applied frequency (p 0.05). Hence, we conclude that the MF-BIA analyzer can be used to estimate the acupoint composition based on the acupoint state. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  9. Development of rapid methods for relaxation time mapping and motion estimation using magnetic resonance imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilani, Syed Irtiza Ali

    2008-09-15

    Recent technological developments in the field of magnetic resonance imaging have resulted in advanced techniques that can reduce the total time to acquire images. For applications such as relaxation time mapping, which enables improved visualisation of in vivo structures, rapid imaging techniques are highly desirable. TAPIR is a Look- Locker-based sequence for high-resolution, multislice T{sub 1} relaxation time mapping. Despite the high accuracy and precision of TAPIR, an improvement in the k-space sampling trajectory is desired to acquire data in clinically acceptable times. In this thesis, a new trajectory, termed line-sharing, is introduced for TAPIR that can potentially reduce the acquisition time by 40 %. Additionally, the line-sharing method was compared with the GRAPPA parallel imaging method. These methods were employed to reconstruct time-point images from the data acquired on a 4T high-field MR research scanner. Multislice, multipoint in vivo results obtained using these methods are presented. Despite improvement in acquisition speed, through line-sharing, for example, motion remains a problem and artefact-free data cannot always be obtained. Therefore, in this thesis, a rapid technique is introduced to estimate in-plane motion. The presented technique is based on calculating the in-plane motion parameters, i.e., translation and rotation, by registering the low-resolution MR images. The rotation estimation method is based on the pseudo-polar FFT, where the Fourier domain is composed of frequencies that reside in an oversampled set of non-angularly, equispaced points. The essence of the method is that unlike other Fourier-based registration schemes, the employed approach does not require any interpolation to calculate the pseudo-polar FFT grid coordinates. Translation parameters are estimated by the phase correlation method. However, instead of two-dimensional analysis of the phase correlation matrix, a low complexity subspace identification of the phase

  10. Development of Property Models with Uncertainty Estimate for Process Design under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hukkerikar, Amol; Sarup, Bent; Abildskov, Jens

    that can also provide estimates of uncertainties in predictions of properties and their effects on process design becomes necessary. For instance, the accuracy of design of distillation column to achieve a given product purity is dependent on many pure compound properties such as critical pressure...... of formation, standard enthalpy of fusion, standard enthalpy of vaporization at 298 K and at the normal boiling point, entropy of vaporization at the normal boiling point, surface tension at 298 K, viscosity at 300 K, flash point, auto ignition temperature, Hansen solubility parameters, Hildebrand solubility....... The comparison of model prediction uncertainties with reported range of measurement uncertainties is presented for the properties with related available data. The application of the developed methodology to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on the design of different unit operations (distillation column...

  11. Progress in the Development of J Estimation Schemes for the RSE-M Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Delliou, Patrick; Sermage, Jean-Philippe; Cambefort, Pierre; Barthelet, Bruno; Gilles, Philippe; Michel, Bruno

    2002-01-01

    The RSE-M Code provides rules and requirements for in-service inspection of French Pressurized Water Reactor power plant components. The Code gives non mandatory guidance for analytical evaluation of flaws. To calculate the stress intensity factors in pipes and shells containing semi-elliptical surface defects, influence coefficients are given for a wide range of geometrical parameters. To calculate the J integral for a circumferential surface crack in a straight pipe, simplified methods are available in the present version of the Code (2000 Addenda) for mechanical loads (in-plane bending and torsion moments, pressure), thermal loads as well as for the combination of these loads. This paper presents the recent advances in the development of J-estimation schemes for two configurations: a longitudinal surface crack in a straight pipe, a longitudinal surface crack in the mid-section of an elbow. (authors)

  12. Estimating the development assistance for health provided to faith-based organizations, 1990-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annie Haakenstad

    Full Text Available Faith-based organizations (FBOs have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH channeled through these organizations.Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs.In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund's contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation's contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs.Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health.

  13. Estimating the Development Assistance for Health Provided to Faith-Based Organizations, 1990–2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haakenstad, Annie; Johnson, Elizabeth; Graves, Casey; Olivier, Jill; Duff, Jean; Dieleman, Joseph L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Faith-based organizations (FBOs) have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH) channeled through these organizations. Material and Methods Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs. Results In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund’s contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation’s contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs. Conclusion Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health. PMID:26042731

  14. Estimating the development assistance for health provided to faith-based organizations, 1990-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haakenstad, Annie; Johnson, Elizabeth; Graves, Casey; Olivier, Jill; Duff, Jean; Dieleman, Joseph L

    2015-01-01

    Faith-based organizations (FBOs) have been active in the health sector for decades. Recently, the role of FBOs in global health has been of increased interest. However, little is known about the magnitude and trends in development assistance for health (DAH) channeled through these organizations. Data were collected from the 21 most recent editions of the Report of Voluntary Agencies. These reports provide information on the revenue and expenditure of organizations. Project-level data were also collected and reviewed from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. More than 1,900 non-governmental organizations received funds from at least one of these three organizations. Background information on these organizations was examined by two independent reviewers to identify the amount of funding channeled through FBOs. In 2013, total spending by the FBOs identified in the VolAg amounted to US$1.53 billion. In 1990, FB0s spent 34.1% of total DAH provided by private voluntary organizations reported in the VolAg. In 2013, FBOs expended 31.0%. Funds provided by the Global Fund to FBOs have grown since 2002, amounting to $80.9 million in 2011, or 16.7% of the Global Fund's contributions to NGOs. In 2011, the Gates Foundation's contributions to FBOs amounted to $7.1 million, or 1.1% of the total provided to NGOs. Development assistance partners exhibit a range of preferences with respect to the amount of funds provided to FBOs. Overall, estimates show that FBOS have maintained a substantial and consistent share over time, in line with overall spending in global health on NGOs. These estimates provide the foundation for further research on the spending trends and effectiveness of FBOs in global health.

  15. Development of a Computer Code for the Estimation of Fuel Rod Failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rhee, I.H.; Ahn, H.J. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-12-31

    Much research has already been performed to obtain the information on the degree of failed fuel rods from the primary coolant activities of operating PWRs in the last few decades. The computer codes that are currently in use for domestic nuclear power plants, such as CADE code and ABB-CE codes developed by Westinghouse and ABB-CE, respectively, still give significant overall errors in estimating the failed fuel rods. In addition, with the CADE code, it is difficult to predict the degree of fuel rod failures during the transient period of nuclear reactor operation, where as the ABB-CE codes are relatively more difficult to use for end-users. In particular, the rapid progresses made recently in the area of the computer hardware and software systems that their computer programs be more versatile and user-friendly. While the MS windows system that is centered on the graphic user interface and multitasking is now in widespread use, the computer codes currently employed at the nuclear power plants, such as CADE and ABB-CE codes, can only be run on the DOS system. Moreover, it is desirable to have a computer code for the fuel rod failure estimation that can directly use the radioactivity data obtained from the on-line monitoring system of the primary coolant activity. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to develop a Windows computer code that can predict the location, the number of failed fuel rods,and the degree of failures using the radioactivity data obtained from the primary coolant activity for PWRs. Another objective is to combine this computer code with the on-line monitoring system of the primary coolant radioactivity at Kori 3 and 4 operating nuclear power plants and enable their combined use for on-line evaluation of the number and degree of fuel rod failures. (author). 49 refs., 85 figs., 30 tabs.

  16. EFFECTS OF THALLIUM ON THE LARVAL DEVELOPMENT OF LUCILIA SERICATA MEIGEN 1826 AND PMI ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Gökhan BAŞARAN

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Determination of larval growth rate of and forensic analysis of the age of Calliphoridae larvae on a corpse are useful evidence in legal investigations for the estimation of exact death time and time duration after death; post mortem interval. However many factors, such as temperature, tissue type and contamination of drugs and toxins, effect larval development of blow fly larvae and consequently theestimation of post mortem interval. The present study examined the larval growth rate of a forensically important blow fly species, Lucilia sericata Meigen 1826 in different concentrations (0,12; 0,25; 0,50; 1 and 2 μg/g of toxic heavy metal Thallium under controlled laboratory conditions. Body length and weight, death ratio of larvae and pupa between experimental and control groups were compared. Results demonstrated that the development rate of larvae between uncontaminated and contaminated diets varies significantly. In short, they molted later, reached maximum length more slowly and sometimesproduced significantly smaller pupae in contaminated food source. These results emphasized that the importance of determining the contamination rate of toxins in tissue for the forensic entomologist,while using development rates from standard curves based on larvae fed non-contaminated mediums.

  17. Three-dimensional analysis of third molar development to estimate age of majority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez-Ruiz, Ana Belén; Treviño-Tijerina, María Concepción; González-Herrera, Lucas; Sánchez, Belén; González-Ramírez, Amanda Rocío; Valenzuela, Aurora

    2017-09-01

    Third molars are one of the few biological markers available for age estimation in undocumented juveniles close the legal age of majority, assuming an age of 18years as the most frequent legal demarcation between child and adult status. To obtain more accurate visualization and evaluation of third molar mineralization patterns from computed tomography images, a new software application, DentaVol©, was developed. Third molar mineralization according to qualitative (Demirjian's maturational stage) and quantitative parameters (third molar volume) of dental development was assessed in multi-slice helical computed tomography images of both maxillary arches displayed by DentaVol© from 135 individuals (62 females and 73 males) aged between 14 and 23years. Intra- and inter-observer agreement values were remarkably high for both evaluation procedures and for all third molars. A linear correlation between third molar mineralization and chronological age was found, with third molar maturity occurring earlier in males than in females. Assessment of dental development with both procedures, by using DentaVol© software, can be considered a good indicator of age of majority (18years or older) in all third molars. Our results indicated that virtual computed tomography imaging can be considered a valid alternative to orthopantomography for evaluations of third molar mineralization, and therefore a complementary tool for determining the age of majority. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. An automated technique to stage lower third molar development on panoramic radiographs for age estimation: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, J; Radesh, P; Vandermeulen, D; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    Automated methods to evaluate growth of hand and wrist bones on radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging have been developed. They can be applied to estimate age in children and subadults. Automated methods require the software to (1) recognise the region of interest in the image(s), (2) evaluate the degree of development and (3) correlate this to the age of the subject based on a reference population. For age estimation based on third molars an automated method for step (1) has been presented for 3D magnetic resonance imaging and is currently being optimised (Unterpirker et al. 2015). To develop an automated method for step (2) based on lower third molars on panoramic radiographs. A modified Demirjian staging technique including ten developmental stages was developed. Twenty panoramic radiographs per stage per gender were retrospectively selected for FDI element 38. Two observers decided in consensus about the stages. When necessary, a third observer acted as a referee to establish the reference stage for the considered third molar. This set of radiographs was used as training data for machine learning algorithms for automated staging. First, image contrast settings were optimised to evaluate the third molar of interest and a rectangular bounding box was placed around it in a standardised way using Adobe Photoshop CC 2017 software. This bounding box indicated the region of interest for the next step. Second, several machine learning algorithms available in MATLAB R2017a software were applied for automated stage recognition. Third, the classification performance was evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation scenario, using different validation metrics (accuracy, Rank-N recognition rate, mean absolute difference, linear kappa coefficient). Transfer Learning as a type of Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Network approach outperformed all other tested approaches. Mean accuracy equalled 0.51, mean absolute difference was 0.6 stages and mean linearly weighted kappa was

  19. Co-operation of the CMEA member countries in the development of different reactor types, including certain aspects of their nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panasenkov, A.; Barbur, I.; Barchenkov, A.; Molnar, L.; Tolpygo, V.; Khake, V.; Shcherbinin, B.

    1977-01-01

    The report gives an account of the problems of the projected development of atomic power and evaluates its role in the fuel and power complex and long-range development of interconnected power systems of the CMEA member countries. The report emphasizes the importance of scientific and technical co-operation in the creation of thermal and fast-neutron power reactors with 1000-1500MW(e) units, and in the elaboration of nuclear plants for heating services. The positive experience of the international scientific and research group of scientists of the CMEA member countries carrying out reactor-physics studies on critical assemblies is mentioned. The report contains basic conclusions from the forecasts for nuclear power in the CMEA member countries up to 1990, including forecasting methodology; the role of nuclear power plants in saving natural and enriched uranium for a projected period; and the impact of nuclear power development rates on its structure (thermal and fast reactor ratio). It lists the impacts of scientific and technical co-operation of the CMEA member countries on the fuel cycle, including the transport of spent nuclear fuel, its recovery, reprocessing and radioactive waste disposal. Particular effects of co-operation of the CMEA member countries on the radiation safety of nuclear power plants and environmental protection are analysed. The report notes the role of the international economic associations Interatomenergo and Interatominstrument in the accelerated development of nuclear power. (author)

  20. Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) pupae: a timeline of external morphological development and a new age and PMI estimation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Katherine; Thorne, Alan; Harvey, Michelle

    2015-07-01

    The minimum postmortem interval (PMI(min)) is commonly estimated using calliphorid larvae, for which there are established age estimation methods based on morphological and development data. Despite the increased duration and sedentary nature of the pupal stage of the blowfly, morphological age estimation methods are poorly documented and infrequently used for PMI determination. The aim of this study was to develop a timeline of metamorphosis, focusing on the development of external morphology (within the puparium), to provide a means of age and PMI estimation for Calliphora vicina (Rob-Desvoidy) pupae. Under controlled conditions, 1,494 pupae were reared and sampled at regular time intervals. After puparium removal, observations of 23 external metamorphic developments were correlated to age in accumulated degree hours (ADH). Two age estimation methods were developed based on (1) the combination of possible age ranges observed for each characteristic and (2) regression analyses to generate age estimation equations employing all 23 characteristics observed and a subset of ten characteristics most significantly correlated with age. Blind sample analysis indicated that, using the combination of both methods, pupal age could be estimated to within ±500 ADH with 95% reliability.

  1. Lift/cruise fan V/STOL technology aircraft design definition study. Volume 3: Development program and budgetary estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrien, W. J.

    1976-01-01

    The aircraft development program, budgetary estimates in CY 1976 dollars, and cost reduction program variants are presented. Detailed cost matrices are also provided for the mechanical transmission system, turbotip transmission system, and the thrust vector hoods and yaw doors.

  2. Large Scale Density Estimation of Blue and Fin Whales: Utilizing Sparse Array Data to Develop and Implement a New Method for Estimating Blue and Fin Whale Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    to develop and implement a new method for estimating blue and fin whale density that is effective over large spatial scales and is designed to cope ...datasets, while collaborators at ARL Penn State provide the long- term data series and expertise in marine mammal biology, acoustic processing, ambient ...function of signal source level, SNR of detection, and sound propagation. Sound propagation characteristics and ambient noise dynamics are site

  3. An automated technique to stage lower third molar development on panoramic radiographs for age estimation: a pilot study

    OpenAIRE

    De Tobel, Jannick; Radesh, Purnima; Vandermeulen, Dirk; Thevissen, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Background • Automated methods to evaluate growth of hand and wrist bones on radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging have been developed. They can be applied to estimate age in children and subadults. Automated methods require the software to (1) recognise the region of interest in the image(s), (2) evaluate the degree of development and (3) correlate this to the age of the subject based on a reference population. For age estimation based on third molars an automated m...

  4. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian

    2011-01-01

    In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  5. Development and validation of a noncontact spectroscopic device for hemoglobin estimation at point-of-care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Probir Kumar; Pal, Sanchari; Polley, Nabarun; Aich, Rajarshi; Adhikari, Aniruddha; Halder, Animesh; Chakrabarti, Subhananda; Chakrabarti, Prantar; Pal, Samir Kumar

    2017-05-01

    Anemia severely and adversely affects human health and socioeconomic development. Measuring hemoglobin with the minimal involvement of human and financial resources has always been challenging. We describe a translational spectroscopic technique for noncontact hemoglobin measurement at low-resource point-of-care settings in human subjects, independent of their skin color, age, and sex, by measuring the optical spectrum of the blood flowing in the vascular bed of the bulbar conjunctiva. We developed software on the LabVIEW platform for automatic data acquisition and interpretation by nonexperts. The device is calibrated by comparing the differential absorbance of light of wavelength 576 and 600 nm with the clinical hemoglobin level of the subject. Our proposed method is consistent with the results obtained using the current gold standard, the automated hematology analyzer. The proposed noncontact optical device for hemoglobin estimation is highly efficient, inexpensive, feasible, and extremely useful in low-resource point-of-care settings. The device output correlates with the different degrees of anemia with absolute and trending accuracy similar to those of widely used invasive methods. Moreover, the device can instantaneously transmit the generated report to a medical expert through e-mail, text messaging, or mobile apps.

  6. Small Launch Vehicle Trade Space Definition: Development of a Zero Level Mass Estimation Tool with Trajectory Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Eric D.

    2013-01-01

    Recent high level interest in the capability of small launch vehicles has placed significant demand on determining the trade space these vehicles occupy. This has led to the development of a zero level analysis tool that can quickly determine the minimum expected vehicle gross liftoff weight (GLOW) in terms of vehicle stage specific impulse (Isp) and propellant mass fraction (pmf) for any given payload value. Utilizing an extensive background in Earth to orbit trajectory experience a total necessary delta v the vehicle must achieve can be estimated including relevant loss terms. This foresight into expected losses allows for more specific assumptions relating to the initial estimates of thrust to weight values for each stage. This tool was further validated against a trajectory model, in this case the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), to determine if the initial sizing delta v was adequate to meet payload expectations. Presented here is a description of how the tool is setup and the approach the analyst must take when using the tool. Also, expected outputs which are dependent on the type of small launch vehicle being sized will be displayed. The method of validation will be discussed as well as where the sizing tool fits into the vehicle design process.

  7. Developing in situ non-destructive estimates of crop biomass to address issues of scale in remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Michael T.; Thenkabail, Prasad S.

    2015-01-01

    Ground-based estimates of aboveground wet (fresh) biomass (AWB) are an important input for crop growth models. In this study, we developed empirical equations of AWB for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, by combining several in situ non-spectral and spectral predictors. The non-spectral predictors included: crop height (H), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), leaf area index (LAI), and fraction of vegetation cover (FVC). The spectral predictors included 196 hyperspectral narrowbands (HNBs) from 350 to 2500 nm. The models for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa included H and HNBs in the near infrared (NIR); H, FAPAR, and HNBs in the NIR; H and HNBs in the visible and NIR; and FVC and HNBs in the visible; respectively. In each case, the non-spectral predictors were the most important, while the HNBs explained additional and statistically significant predictors, but with lower variance. The final models selected for validation yielded an R2 of 0.84, 0.59, 0.91, and 0.86 for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, which when compared to models using HNBs alone from a previous study using the same spectral data, explained an additional 12%, 29%, 14%, and 6% in AWB variance. These integrated models will be used in an up-coming study to extrapolate AWB over 60 × 60 m transects to evaluate spaceborne multispectral broad bands and hyperspectral narrowbands.

  8. Developing in situ Non-Destructive Estimates of Crop Biomass to Address Issues of Scale in Remote Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Marshall

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Ground-based estimates of aboveground wet (fresh biomass (AWB are an important input for crop growth models. In this study, we developed empirical equations of AWB for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, by combining several in situ non-spectral and spectral predictors. The non-spectral predictors included: crop height (H, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR, leaf area index (LAI, and fraction of vegetation cover (FVC. The spectral predictors included 196 hyperspectral narrowbands (HNBs from 350 to 2500 nm. The models for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa included H and HNBs in the near infrared (NIR; H, FAPAR, and HNBs in the NIR; H and HNBs in the visible and NIR; and FVC and HNBs in the visible; respectively. In each case, the non-spectral predictors were the most important, while the HNBs explained additional and statistically significant predictors, but with lower variance. The final models selected for validation yielded an R2 of 0.84, 0.59, 0.91, and 0.86 for rice, maize, cotton, and alfalfa, which when compared to models using HNBs alone from a previous study using the same spectral data, explained an additional 12%, 29%, 14%, and 6% in AWB variance. These integrated models will be used in an up-coming study to extrapolate AWB over 60 × 60 m transects to evaluate spaceborne multispectral broad bands and hyperspectral narrowbands.

  9. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and development of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients included in the Spanish ABPM registry: the CARDIORISC Event study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Sierra, Alejandro; Banegas, José R; Segura, Julián; Gorostidi, Manuel; Ruilope, Luis M

    2012-04-01

    Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is superior to conventional BP measurement in predicting outcome, with baseline 24-h, daytime and night-time absolute values, as well as relative nocturnal decline, as powerful determinants of prognosis. We aimed to evaluate ABPM estimates on the appearance of cardiovascular events and mortality in a cohort of high-risk treated hypertensive patients. A total of 2115 treated hypertensive patients with high or very high added risk were evaluated by means of office and 24-h ABPM. Cardiovascular events and mortality were assessed after a median follow-up of 4 years. Two hundred and sixty-eight patients (12.7%) experienced a primary event (nonfatal coronary or cerebrovascular event, heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death) and 114 died (45 from cardiovascular causes). In a multiple Cox regression model, and after adjusting for baseline cardiovascular risk and office BP, night-time SBP predicted cardiovascular events [hazard ratio for each SD increase: 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.59]. Values above 130 mmHg increased the risk by 52% in comparison to values less than 115 mmHg. In addition to clinical determinants of cardiovascular risk and conventional BP, ABPM performed during treatment adds prognostic significance on the development of cardiovascular events in high-risk hypertensive patients. Among different ABPM-derived values, night-time SBP is the most potent predictor of outcome.

  10. Estimating energy impacts of residential and commercial building development. A manual for the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-02-22

    This energy-impact manual presents information on energy implications of new building design and operation, providing a reasonably accurate means of assessing the total energy impact of new construction in the commercial and residential sectors. While developed specifically for the states of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, much of the data used are national averages; the procedures described are applicable to other regions of the nation, with appropriate adjustments for climatic differences. The manual is organized into three parts, each covering one aspect of the energy impacts of building development. Part I addresses the energy impact of erecting the building(s). This includes the energy cost of grading and excavating and other site preparation. It also takes into account the energy embodied in the fabrication of materials used in building construction, as well as the energy cost of transporting materials to the site and assembling them. Part II focuses on the end use of energy during normal building operation, i.e., the energy consumed for space heating, cooling, lighting, water heating, etc. A simplified calculation sequence is provided which allows the user to estimate the consumption of most combinations of building orientation, characteristics, and operating conditions. Part III examines the relationship of land use to energy consumption, principally the transportation energy impact of various land-development patterns, the embodied energy impacts of infrastructure requirements, and the impacts of various orientation and siting schemes. (MCW)

  11. Development and Validation of a Prediction Model to Estimate Individual Risk of Pancreatic Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ami; Woo, Sang Myung; Joo, Jungnam; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Lee, Woo Jin; Park, Sang-Jae; Nam, Byung-Ho

    2016-01-01

    There is no reliable screening tool to identify people with high risk of developing pancreatic cancer even though pancreatic cancer represents the fifth-leading cause of cancer-related death in Korea. The goal of this study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model that can be used to screen for asymptomatic pancreatic cancer in Korean men and women. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed using the Cox proportional hazards model based on an 8-year follow-up of a cohort study of 1,289,933 men and 557,701 women in Korea who had biennial examinations in 1996-1997. The performance of the models was evaluated with respect to their discrimination and calibration ability based on the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow type χ2 statistic. A total of 1,634 (0.13%) men and 561 (0.10%) women were newly diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Age, height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and age at smoking initiation were included in the risk prediction model for men. Height, BMI, fasting glucose, urine glucose, smoking, and drinking habit were included in the risk prediction model for women. Smoking was the most significant risk factor for developing pancreatic cancer in both men and women. The risk prediction model exhibited good discrimination and calibration ability, and in external validation it had excellent prediction ability. Gender-specific risk prediction models for pancreatic cancer were developed and validated for the first time. The prediction models will be a useful tool for detecting high-risk individuals who may benefit from increased surveillance for pancreatic cancer.

  12. Developing historical food production and consumption data for 131I dose estimates: The Hanford experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.M.; Marsh, T.L.; Deonigi, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    This paper describes the methods used to reconstruct the movement of commercial foods in and through the study area of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project. The most dose-relevant radionuclide released from Hanford separations plants was 131 I via the atmospheric pathway. As a result of atmospheric deposition of 131 I, commercial food supplies may have been contaminated. Because of the half-life of 131 I is relatively short, foods consumed soon after production, such as milk and produce, presented the highest risk. For that reason, this paper deals primarily with the reconstruction of milk and produce production, marketing, and consumption from 1945-1951, the period with the highest known 131 I releases. The reconstructed food production and consumption information was used as input to radiation dose estimates for representative individuals and as default values for real individuals who may not remember where they obtained food or how much they consumed during that period. Specific methods for tracing the movement of commercial milk and produce back from the point of human consumption, through commercial markets, to original production are presented. Results include the characteristics of food consumption exhibited by representative individuals, examples of commercial milk and produce market structures, and a review of commercial milk production and processing practices from 1945-1951

  13. Joint U.S./Russian Study on the Development of a Preliminary Cost Estimate of the SAFSTOR Decommissioning Alternative for the Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant Unit #1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SM Garrett

    1998-09-28

    The objectives of the two joint Russian/U.S. Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Unit #1 studies were the development of a safe, technically feasible, economically acceptable decom missioning strategy, and the preliminary cost evaluation of the developed strategy. The first study, resulting in the decommissioning strategy, was performed in 1996 and 1997. The preliminary cost estimation study, described in this report, was performed in 1997 and 1998. The decommissioning strategy study included the analyses of three basic RBM.K decommission- ing alternatives, refined for the Leningrad NPP Unit #1. The analyses included analysis of the requirements for the planning and preparation as well as the decommissioning phases.

  14. Estimation of photovoltaic systems for rural development: a case study of village near Quetta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasir, S.M.; Raza, S.M.; Hyder, S.

    1994-01-01

    The energy needs in Pakistan are rising in all sectors whereas the supplies seem to be still heavily dependent on oil and electricity generation from WAPDA (Water and Power Development Authority). It is estimated that there are more than 100 villages having population more than 500. These villages are remotely scattered and are away from the industrial belt. It is unlikely to electrify all these villages in the near future. It is difficult to reach them with fossil fuels, particularly oil in quantities they need. In this context, solar and wind power may offer a viable solution. Increasing human and financial commitment would enable the societies to take advantage of this new technology. Considering the demand and supply infrastructure economy, social and cultural set up of the rural communities where a large number of people live must be considered. A case study was made of a village (Killi Paind Khan) near Quetta. The results show that the photovoltaic power system (PPS) is quite attractive for a small community for their lighting and other household appliances. (author)

  15. Development and Validation of HPTLC Method for Estimation of Tenoxicam and its Formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandel, S; Barhate, C R; Srivastava, A R; Kulkarni, S R; Kulkarni, S K; Kapadia, C J

    2012-01-01

    A simple, precise, accurate and rapid high performance thin layer chromatographic method has been developed and validated for the estimation of tenoxicam in the microemulsion gels. Tenoxicam was chromatographed on silica gel 60 F(254) TLC plate, as a stationary phase. The mobile phase was toluene: ethyl acetate: formic acid (6:4:0.3 v/v/v), which gave a dense and compact spot of tenoxicam with a R(f) value of 0.38±0.03. The quantification was carried out at 379 nm. The method was validated in terms of linearity, accuracy, precision and specificity. To justify the suitability, accuracy and precision of the proposed method, recovery studies were performed at three concentration levels. Statistical analysis proved that the proposed method is accurate and reproducible with linearity in the range of 100 to 400 ng. The limit of detection and limit of quantification for tenoxicam were 25 and 50 μg/spot, respectively. The proposed method can be employed for the routine analysis of tenoxicam as well as in pharmaceutical formulations.

  16. Estimating informal household food waste in developed countries: the case of Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Christian J; Mavrakis, Vicki; Davison, Sandra; Høj, Stine B; Vlaholias, Elisha; Sharp, Anne; Thompson, Kirrilly; Ward, Paul; Coveney, John; Piantadosi, Julia; Boland, John; Dawson, Drew

    2014-12-01

    Food waste is a global problem. In Australia alone, it is estimated that households throw away AU$5.2 billion worth of food (AU$616 per household) each year. Developed countries have formal waste management systems that provide measures of food waste. However, much remains unknown about informal food waste disposal routes and volumes outside of the formal system. This article provides indicative metrics of informal food waste by identifying, in detail, five of the dominant informal food waste disposal routes used by Australian households: home composting, feeding scraps to pets, sewer disposal, giving to charity, and dumping or incineration. Informal waste generation rates are then calculated from three primary data sources, in addition to data from previous Australian and UK surveys, using a weighted average method in conjunction with a Monte-Carlo simulation. We find that the average Australian household disposes of 2.6 kgs of food waste per week through informal routes (1.7 kgs via household composting, 0.2 kgs via animals, and 0.6 kgs via sewage). This represents 20% of Australian household food waste flows. Our results highlight that informal food waste is a sizable food waste flow from Australian homes, deserving of greater research and government attention. Our examination of the full extent of food waste by disposal mode provides waste managers and policy makers with clear disposal routes to target for behaviour change and positive environmental outcomes. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. Algorithm Development for the Optimum Rainfall Estimation Using Polarimetric Variables in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheol-Hwan You

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, to get an optimum rainfall estimation using polarimetric variables observed from Bislsan radar which is the first polarimetric radar in Korea, rainfall cases for 84 hours caused by different conditions, which are Changma front and typhoon, Changma front only, and typhoon only, occurred in 2011, were analyzed. And rainfall algorithms were developed by using long period drop size distributions with six different raindrop axis ratio relations. The combination of the relations between R and Z, ZDR, R and KDP, ZDR, and R and KDP with different rainfall intensity would be an optimum rainfall algorithm if the reference of rainfall would be defined correctly. In the case the reference is not defined adequately, the relation between R and Z, ZDR, KDP, AH and R and Z, KDP, AH can be used as a representative rainfall relation. Particularly if the qualified ZDR is not available, the relation between R and Z, KDP, AH can be used as an optimum rainfall relation in Korea.

  18. Development of likelihood estimation method for criticality accidents of mixed oxide fuel fabrication facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamaki, Hitoshi; Yoshida, Kazuo; Kimoto, Tatsuya; Hamaguchi, Yoshikane

    2010-01-01

    A criticality accident in a MOX fuel fabrication facility may occur depending on several parameters, such as mass inventory and plutonium enrichment. MOX handling units in the facility are designed and operated based on the double contingency principle to prevent criticality accidents. Control failures of at least two parameters are needed for the occurrence of criticality accident. To evaluate the probability of such control failures, the criticality conditions of each parameter for a specific handling unit are necessary for accident scenario analysis to be clarified quantitatively with a criticality analysis computer code. In addition to this issue, a computer-based control system for mass inventory is planned to be installed into MOX handling equipment in a commercial MOX fuel fabrication plant. The reliability analysis is another important issue in evaluating the likelihood of control failure caused by software malfunction. A likelihood estimation method for criticality accident has been developed with these issues been taken into consideration. In this paper, an example of analysis with the proposed method and the applicability of the method are also shown through a trial application to a model MOX fabrication facility. (author)

  19. Estimate of Alabama argillacea (Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae development with nonlinear models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Medeiros

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate which nonlinear model [Davidson (1942, 1944, Stinner et al. (1974, Sharpe & DeMichele (1977, and Lactin et al. (1995] best describes the relationship between developmental rates of the different instars and stages of Alabama argillacea (Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae, and temperature. A. argillacea larvae were fed with cotton leaves (Gossypium hirsutum L., race latifolium Hutch., cultivar CNPA 7H at constant temperatures of 20, 23, 25, 28, 30, 33, and 35ºC; relative humidity of 60 ± 10%; and photoperiod of 14:10 L:D. Low R² values obtained with Davidson (0.0001 to 0.1179 and Stinner et al. (0.0099 to 0.8296 models indicated a poor fit of their data for A. argillacea. However, high R² values of Sharpe & DeMichele (0.9677 to 0.9997 and Lactin et al. (0.9684 to 0.9997 models indicated a better fit for estimating A. argillacea development.

  20. Mass balance approaches for estimating the intestinal absorption and metabolism of peptides and analogues: theoretical development and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinko, P. J.; Leesman, G. D.; Amidon, G. L.

    1993-01-01

    A theoretical analysis for estimating the extent of intestinal peptide and peptide analogue absorption was developed on the basis of a mass balance approach that incorporates convection, permeability, and reaction. The macroscopic mass balance analysis (MMBA) was extended to include chemical and enzymatic degradation. A microscopic mass balance analysis, a numerical approach, was also developed and the results compared to the MMBA. The mass balance equations for the fraction of a drug absorbed and reacted in the tube were derived from the general steady state mass balance in a tube: [formula: see text] where M is mass, z is the length of the tube, R is the tube radius, Pw is the intestinal wall permeability, kr is the reaction rate constant, C is the concentration of drug in the volume element over which the mass balance is taken, VL is the volume of the tube, and vz is the axial velocity of drug. The theory was first applied to the oral absorption of two tripeptide analogues, cefaclor (CCL) and cefatrizine (CZN), which degrade and dimerize in the intestine. Simulations using the mass balance equations, the experimental absorption parameters, and the literature stability rate constants yielded a mean estimated extent of CCL (250-mg dose) and CZN (1000-mg dose) absorption of 89 and 51%, respectively, which was similar to the mean extent of absorption reported in humans (90 and 50%). It was proposed previously that 15% of the CCL dose spontaneously degraded systematically; however, our simulations suggest that significant CCL degradation occurs (8 to 17%) presystemically in the intestinal lumen.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

  1. Estimating the welfare loss to households from natural disasters in developing countries: a contingent valuation study of flooding in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ståle Navrud

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Natural disasters have severe impacts on the health and well-being of affected households. However, we find evidence that official damage cost assessments for floods and other natural disasters in Vietnam, where households have little or no insurance, clearly underestimate the total economic damage costs of these events as they do not include the welfare loss from mortality, morbidity and reduced well-being experienced by the households affected by the floods. This should send a message to the local communities and national authorities that higher investments in flood alleviation, reduction and adaptive measures can be justified since the social benefits of these measures in terms of avoided damage costs are higher than previously thought. Methods: We pioneer the use of the contingent valuation (CV approach of willingness-to-contribute (WTC labour to a flood prevention program, as a measure of the welfare loss experienced by household due to a flooding event. In a face-to-face household survey of 706 households in the Quang Nam province in Central Vietnam, we applied this approach together with reported direct physical damage in order to shed light of the welfare loss experienced by the households. We asked about households’ WTC labour and multiplied their WTC person-days of labour by an estimate for their opportunity cost of time in order to estimate the welfare loss to households from the 2007 floods. Results: The results showed that this contingent valuation (CV approach of asking about willingness-to-pay in-kind avoided the main problems associated with applying CV in developing countries. Conclusion: Thus, the CV approach of WTC labour instead of money is promising in terms of capturing the total welfare loss of natural disasters to households, and promising in terms of further application in other developing countries and for other types of natural disasters.

  2. Development of a sensory neuronal cell model for the estimation of mild eye irritation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilja, Johanna; Forsby, Anna

    2004-10-01

    In an attempt to improve the in vitro test strategy for the estimation of eye irritation, a neuronal cell model has been developed, with cells expressing vanilloid receptor type 1 (VR1) nociceptors. The currently accepted method for measuring eye irritancy is the ethically and scientifically criticised Draize rabbit eye test, despite the fact that alternative in vitro methods are available which have proved to be reliable and reproducible for predicting severe ocular toxicity. However, no alternative tests for measuring neuronal stimulation have yet been developed, and the prediction of eye irritation in the mild range is therefore insufficient. VR1 is a nociceptor localised in C-fibre neurons innervating the cornea and the surrounding tissue, and it responds to potentially damaging stimuli by releasing Ca2+ into the cytoplasm. As a sensory endpoint, [Ca2+]i was measured in VR1 transfected cells, as well as in control cells. Short-term cell cytotoxicity studies (cell membrane rupture and morphological divergence) were used to determine the non-corrosive concentrations of the test chemicals. Preliminary results indicated that hygiene products used daily may induce eye irritation via VR1 nociceptors. The lowest toxic concentration (0.025%) of liquid hand soap, as determined by morphologic divergences of cells, generated an 80% increase in [Ca2+]i over the basal [Ca2+]i in VR1 transfected cells, whereas the non-specific [Ca2+]i increased by 33%. Furthermore, all the endpoints studied indicated that shampoo for children was less active than shampoo for adults. If this method is successfully validated with standardised reference chemicals, the model could complete the test battery of in vitro alternatives, resulting in the saving of thousands of laboratory animals.

  3. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priyadharshini, K Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B; Mohanbabu, V; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-05-01

    To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A-H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P < 0.05 was considered as the level of significance. The results showed that the mean age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P < 0.05). There are differences indicating that maxillary and mandibular third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization.

  4. Estimation of fetal lung development using quantitative analysis of ultrasonographic images in normal canine pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banzato, T; Zovi, G; Milani, C

    2017-07-01

    We investigated the quantitative analysis of sonographic images to predict fetal lung maturity of the canine foetus in normal pregnancy. Twelve bitches were recruited in the present study. Serial ultrasonographic exams were performed at three pre-determined time periods corresponding to the pseudoglandular (40-48 days of pregnancy), canalicular (49-56 days of pregnancy) and saccular phase (57-63 days of pregnancy) of lung development. Mean grey level (MGL) and the standard deviation of the histogram (SDH) of fetal lung and liver sonographic images were measured with dedicated software. The lung-to-liver ratio (LLR) for both parameters was also calculated. Measurements were taken on the two caudal-most foetuses and then averaged. SDH did not show any statistically significant difference between the three time periods in the lungs or in the liver. MGL measured in the lungs significantly increased in the first period and reached a plateau during the last two periods. Liver echogenicity was constant during the first two periods and significantly increased during the last week of gestation. The LLR of MGL significantly decreased during the last week of pregnancy. The LLR was a very good test to detect fetal lung maturity (area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) = 0.875); using a cut-off value of LLR < 1.541, sensitivity was 83.33% and specificity was 83.33%, positive likelihood ratio = 5. LLR of MGL is an accurate test to estimate lung development in normal canine pregnancies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Development of a comprehensive survey of sexuality issues including a self-report version of the International Spinal Cord Injury sexual function basic data sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New, P W; Currie, K E

    2016-08-01

    Questionnaire development, validation and completion. Develop comprehensive survey of sexuality issues including validated self-report versions of the International Spinal Cord Injury male sexual function and female sexual and reproductive function basic data sets (SR-iSCI-sexual function). People with spinal cord damage (SCD) living in the community, Australia from August 2013 to June 2014. An iterative process involving rehabilitation medicine clinicians, a nurse specialising in sexuality issues in SCD and people with SCD who developed a comprehensive survey that included the SR-iSCI-sexual function. Participants recruitment through spinal rehabilitation review clinic and community organisations that support people with SCD. Surveys completed by 154 people. Most were male (n=101, 65.6%). Respondents' median age was 50 years (interquartile range (IQR) 38-58), and they were a median of 10 years (IQR 4-20) after the onset of SCD. Sexual problems unrelated to SCD were reported by 12 (8%) respondents, and 114 (n=75.5%) reported sexual problems because of SCD. Orgasms were much less likely (χ(2)=13.1, P=0.006) to be normal in males (n=5, 5%) compared with females (n=11, 22%). Males had significantly worse (χ(2)=26.0, P=0.001) psychogenic genital functioning (normal n=9, 9%) than females (normal n=13, 26%) and worse (χ(2)=10.8, P=0.013) reflex genital functioning. Normal ejaculation was reported in only three (3%) men. Most (n=26, 52%) women reported reduced or absent menstruation pattern since SCD. The SR-iSCI-sexual function provides a useful tool for researchers and clinicians to collect information regarding patient-reported sexual functioning after SCD and to facilitate comparative studies.

  6. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING THE EFFORT IN SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferreira, G., Gálvez, D.,

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Among the most popular algorithmic cost and efforts estimation models are COCOMO, SLIM, Function Points. However, since the 90s, the models based on Artificial Intelligence techniques, mainly in Machine Learning techniques have been used to improve the accuracy of the estimates. These models are based on two fundamental aspects: the use of data collected in previous projects where estimates were performed and the application of various knowledge extraction techniques, with the idea of making estimates more efficiently, effectively and, if possible, with greater precision. The aim of this paper is to present an analysis of some of these techniques and how they are been applied in estimating the effort of software projects.

  7. Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocco, M.

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m -2 d -1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation [pt

  8. Two Approaches to Estimating the Effect of Parenting on the Development of Executive Function in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Clancy; Raver, C. Cybele; Berry, Daniel J.

    2014-01-01

    In the current article, we contrast 2 analytical approaches to estimate the relation of parenting to executive function development in a sample of 1,292 children assessed longitudinally between the ages of 36 and 60 months of age. Children were administered a newly developed and validated battery of 6 executive function tasks tapping inhibitory…

  9. Development of Estimating Equation of Machine Operational Skill by Utilizing Eye Movement Measurement and Analysis of Stress and Fatigue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Suzuki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For an establishment of a skill evaluation method for human support systems, development of an estimating equation of the machine operational skill is presented. Factors of the eye movement such as frequency, velocity, and moving distance of saccade were computed using the developed eye gaze measurement system, and the eye movement features were determined from these factors. The estimating equation was derived through an outlier test (to eliminate nonstandard data and a principal component analysis (to find dominant components. Using a cooperative carrying task (cc-task simulator, the eye movement and operational data of the machine operators were recorded, and effectiveness of the derived estimating equation was investigated. As a result, it was confirmed that the estimating equation was effective strongly against actual simple skill levels (r=0.56–0.84. In addition, effects of internal condition such as fatigue and stress on the estimating equation were analyzed. Using heart rate (HR and coefficient of variation of R-R interval (Cvrri. Correlation analysis between these biosignal indexes and the estimating equation of operational skill found that the equation reflected effects of stress and fatigue, although the equation could estimate the skill level adequately.

  10. Biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal in membrane bioreactors: model development and parameter estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosenza, Alida; Mannina, Giorgio; Neumann, Marc B; Viviani, Gaspare; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

    2013-04-01

    Membrane bioreactors (MBR) are being increasingly used for wastewater treatment. Mathematical modeling of MBR systems plays a key role in order to better explain their characteristics. Several MBR models have been presented in the literature focusing on different aspects: biological models, models which include soluble microbial products (SMP), physical models able to describe the membrane fouling and integrated models which couple the SMP models with the physical models. However, only a few integrated models have been developed which take into account the relationships between membrane fouling and biological processes. With respect to biological phosphorus removal in MBR systems, due to the complexity of the process, practical use of the models is still limited. There is a vast knowledge (and consequently vast amount of data) on nutrient removal for conventional-activated sludge systems but only limited information on phosphorus removal for MBRs. Calibration of these complex integrated models still remains the main bottleneck to their employment. The paper presents an integrated mathematical model able to simultaneously describe biological phosphorus removal, SMP formation/degradation and physical processes which also include the removal of organic matter. The model has been calibrated with data collected in a UCT-MBR pilot plant, located at the Palermo wastewater treatment plant, applying a modified version of a recently developed calibration protocol. The calibrated model provides acceptable correspondence with experimental data and can be considered a useful tool for MBR design and operation.

  11. The development of small, cabled, real-time video based observation systems for near shore coastal marine science including three examples and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatcher, Gerry; Okuda, Craig

    2016-01-01

    The effects of climate change on the near shore coastal environment including ocean acidification, accelerated erosion, destruction of coral reefs, and damage to marine habitat have highlighted the need for improved equipment to study, monitor, and evaluate these changes [1]. This is especially true where areas of study are remote, large, or beyond depths easily accessible to divers. To this end, we have developed three examples of low cost and easily deployable real-time ocean observation platforms. We followed a scalable design approach adding complexity and capability as familiarity and experience were gained with system components saving both time and money by reducing design mistakes. The purpose of this paper is to provide information for the researcher, technician, or engineer who finds themselves in need of creating or acquiring similar platforms.

  12. Nematodes that associate with terrestrial molluscs as definitive hosts, including Phasmarhabditis hermaphrodita (Rhabditida: Rhabditidae) and its development as a biological molluscicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieterse, A; Malan, A P; Ross, J L

    2017-09-01

    Terrestrial molluscs (Mollusca: Gastropoda) are important economic pests worldwide, causing extensive damage to a variety of crop types, and posing a health risk to both humans and wildlife. Current knowledge indicates that there are eight nematode families that associate with molluscs as definitive hosts, including Agfidae, Alaninematidae, Alloionematidae, Angiostomatidae, Cosmocercidae, Diplogastridae, Mermithidae and Rhabditidae. To date, Phasmarhabditis hermaphrodita (Schneider, 1859) Andrássy, 1983 (Rhabditida: Rhabditidae) is the only nematode that has been developed as a biological molluscicide. The nematode, which was commercially released in 1994 by MicroBio Ltd, Littlehampton, UK (formally Becker Underwood, now BASF) under the tradename Nemaslug®, is now sold in 15 different European countries. This paper reviews nematodes isolated from molluscs, with specially detailed information on the life cycle, host range, commercialization, natural distribution, mass production and field application of P. hermaphrodita.

  13. Estimation of Bouguer Density Precision: Development of Method for Analysis of La Soufriere Volcano Gravity Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendra Gunawan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.17014/ijog.vol3no3.20084The precision of topographic density (Bouguer density estimation by the Nettleton approach is based on a minimum correlation of Bouguer gravity anomaly and topography. The other method, the Parasnis approach, is based on a minimum correlation of Bouguer gravity anomaly and Bouguer correction. The precision of Bouguer density estimates was investigated by both methods on simple 2D syntetic models and under an assumption free-air anomaly consisting of an effect of topography, an effect of intracrustal, and an isostatic compensation. Based on simulation results, Bouguer density estimates were then investigated for a gravity survey of 2005 on La Soufriere Volcano-Guadeloupe area (Antilles Islands. The Bouguer density based on the Parasnis approach is 2.71 g/cm3 for the whole area, except the edifice area where average topography density estimates are 2.21 g/cm3 where Bouguer density estimates from previous gravity survey of 1975 are 2.67 g/cm3. The Bouguer density in La Soufriere Volcano was uncertainly estimated to be 0.1 g/cm3. For the studied area, the density deduced from refraction seismic data is coherent with the recent Bouguer density estimates. New Bouguer anomaly map based on these Bouguer density values allows to a better geological intepretation.    

  14. Two Approaches to Estimating the Effect of Parenting on the Development of Executive Function in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Clancy; Raver, C. Cybele; Berry, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    In the current article, we contrast 2 analytical approaches to estimate the relation of parenting to executive function development in a sample of 1,292 children assessed longitudinally between the ages of 36 and 60 months of age. Children were administered a newly developed and validated battery of 6 executive function tasks tapping inhibitory control, working memory, and attention shifting. Residualized change analysis indicated that higher quality parenting as indicated by higher scores on widely used measures of parenting at both earlier and later time points predicted more positive gain in executive function at 60 months. Latent change score models in which parenting and executive function over time were held to standards of longitudinal measurement invariance provided additional evidence of the association between change in parenting quality and change in executive function. In these models, cross-lagged paths indicated that in addition to parenting predicting change in executive function, executive function bidirectionally predicted change in parenting quality. Results were robust with the addition of covariates, including child sex, race, maternal education, and household income-to-need. Strengths and drawbacks of the 2 analytic approaches are discussed, and the findings are considered in light of emerging methodological innovations for testing the extent to which executive function is malleable and open to the influence of experience. PMID:23834294

  15. Technical meeting on lessons learned with respect to SAT implementation, including development of trainers and use of cost effective training methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The past years have brought some significant changes in the world energy market, where the nuclear power plants and utilities are operating. Part of NPPs is privatised now; the electricity markets are liberalized and become more and more international. Due to the increase of competition, the power production costs are now monitored more closely than before. The opening of electricity markets has led the nuclear power plants to be under the serious economic pressure with a demand for continuous cost reduction. All these require from NPPs to make their personnel training more cost-effective. In addition, based on modern technology, a great amount of new training tools, aids and technologies have been introduced during the last 2-3 years, these new opportunities can be quite useful for training cost optimization. On the basis of experience gained worldwide in the application of the systematic approach to training (SAT), SAT based training is now a broad integrated approach emphasizing not only technical knowledge and skills but also human factor related knowledge, skills and attitudes. In this way, all competency requirements for attaining and maintaining personnel competence and qualification can be met, thus promoting and strengthening quality culture and safety culture, which should be fostered throughout the initial and continuing training programmes. The subject of the present technical meeting was suggested by the members of the Technical Working Group on Training and Qualification of NPP Personnel (TWG-T and Q) and supported by a number of the IAEA meetings on NPP personnel training. The technical Meeting on 'Lessons Learned with Respect to SAT Implementation, Including Development of Trainers and Use of Cost Effective Training Methods' was organized by the IAEA in co-operation with the Tecnatom A.S. and was held from 21 to 24 October 2002 in San Sebastian de los Reyes/ Madrid, Spain. The main objective of the meeting was to provide an international forum for

  16. Prediction of preterm birth in multiple pregnancies: development of a multivariable model including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Mheen, Lidewij; Schuit, Ewoud; Lim, Arianne C; Porath, Martina M; Papatsonis, Dimitri; Erwich, Jan J; van Eyck, Jim; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Hummel, Piet; Duvekot, Johannes J; Hasaart, Tom H M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Moons, Karl G M; de Groot, Christianne J M; Bruinse, Hein W; van Pampus, Maria G; Mol, Ben W J

    2014-04-01

    To develop a multivariable prognostic model for the risk of preterm delivery in women with multiple pregnancy that includes cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and other variables. We used data from a previous randomized trial. We assessed the association between maternal and pregnancy characteristics including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and time to delivery using multivariable Cox regression modelling. Performance of the final model was assessed for the outcomes of preterm and very preterm delivery using calibration and discrimination measures. We studied 507 women, of whom 270 (53%) delivered models for preterm and very preterm delivery had a c-index of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.72) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.75), respectively, and showed good calibration. In women with a multiple pregnancy, the risk of preterm delivery can be assessed with a multivariable model incorporating cervical length and other predictors.

  17. Development of a method to estimate organ doses for pediatric CT examinations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papadakis, Antonios E., E-mail: apapadak@pagni.gr; Perisinakis, Kostas; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, University Hospital of Heraklion, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 1352, Iraklion, Crete 71110 (Greece)

    2016-05-15

    Purpose: To develop a method for estimating doses to primarily exposed organs in pediatric CT by taking into account patient size and automatic tube current modulation (ATCM). Methods: A Monte Carlo CT dosimetry software package, which creates patient-specific voxelized phantoms, accurately simulates CT exposures, and generates dose images depicting the energy imparted on the exposed volume, was used. Routine head, thorax, and abdomen/pelvis CT examinations in 92 pediatric patients, ranging from 1-month to 14-yr-old (49 boys and 43 girls), were simulated on a 64-slice CT scanner. Two sets of simulations were performed in each patient using (i) a fixed tube current (FTC) value over the entire examination length and (ii) the ATCM profile extracted from the DICOM header of the reconstructed images. Normalized to CTDI{sub vol} organ dose was derived for all primary irradiated radiosensitive organs. Normalized dose data were correlated to patient’s water equivalent diameter using log-transformed linear regression analysis. Results: The maximum percent difference in normalized organ dose between FTC and ATCM acquisitions was 10% for eyes in head, 26% for thymus in thorax, and 76% for kidneys in abdomen/pelvis. In most of the organs, the correlation between dose and water equivalent diameter was significantly improved in ATCM compared to FTC acquisitions (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The proposed method employs size specific CTDI{sub vol}-normalized organ dose coefficients for ATCM-activated and FTC acquisitions in pediatric CT. These coefficients are substantially different between ATCM and FTC modes of operation and enable a more accurate assessment of patient-specific organ dose in the clinical setting.

  18. Real Time GPS- Satellite Clock Estimation Development of a RTIGS Web Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opitz, M.; Weber, R.; Caissy, M.

    2006-12-01

    Since 3 years the IGS (International GNSS Service) Real-Time Working Group disseminates via Internet raw observation data of a subset of stations of the IGS network. This observation data can be used to establish a real-time integrity monitoring of the IGS predicted orbits (Ultra Rapid (IGU-) Orbits) and clocks, according to the recommendations of the IGS Workshop 2004 in Bern. The Institute for "Geodesy and Geophysics" of the TU-Vienna develops in cooperation with the IGS Real-Time Working Group the software "RTR- Control", which currently provides a real-time integrity monitoring of predicted IGU Clock Corrections to GPS Time. Our poster presents the results of a prototype version which is in operation since August this year. Besides RTR-Control allows for the comparison of pseudoranges measured at any permanent station in the global network with theoretical pseudoranges calculated on basis of the IGU- orbits. Thus, the programme can diagnose incorrectly predicted satellite orbits and clocks as well as detect multi-path distorted pseudoranges in real- time. RTR- Control calculates every 15 seconds Satellite Clock Corrections with respect to the most recent IGU- clocks (updated in a 6 hours interval). The clock estimations are referenced to a stable station clock (H-maser) with a small offset to GPS- time. This real-time Satellite Clocks are corrected for individual outliers and modelling errors. The most recent GPS- Satellite Clock Corrections (updated every 60 seconds) are published in Real Time via the Internet. The user group interested in a rigorous integrity monitoring comprises on the one hand the components of IGS itself to qualify the issued orbital data and on the other hand all users of the IGS Ultra Rapid Products (e.g. for PPP in Real Time).

  19. Production parameters, carcass development and blood parameters of the broiler chick fed diets which include rapeseed, flax, grape and buckthorn meals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru Alexandru Vlaicu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available A feeding trial was performed on 75, day-old ROSS 308 chicks assigned to 3 groups (C, E1 and E2 to test new feeding solutions for broilers using oil industry by-products. In the starter phase (0-10 days, all chicks received a conventional compound feed. In the other two stages (growing, finishing, compared to the conventional diet given to the C group, the diet formulations of the experimental groups included different proportions, depending on the phase of development, rapeseeds meal and grape pomace (E1 and flaxseeds meal and buckthorn meal (E2. The compound feed for group E2 had significantly (P≤0.05 higher ω-3 PUFA concentrations than groups C and E1. Six blood samples/group were collected in the end of the feeding trial, used for biochemical and haematological determinations. Six chicks/group were slaughtered on day 42, to measure carcass and internal organs development. The feed intake and gains were monitored throughout the experimental period (10-42 days. At 42 days, E2 broiler chicks had significantly (P≤0.05 lower body weight than C broiler chicks. Serum glycaemia, cholesterol and trygliceride concentrations were significantly (P≤0.05 lower in E2 chicks than in C chicks, by 17.94 %, 25.70 % and 42.05%, respectively.

  20. Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 01: CPQR Technical Quality Control Suite Development including Quality Control Workload Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malkoske, Kyle; Nielsen, Michelle; Brown, Erika; Diamond, Kevin; Frenière, Normand; Grant, John; Pomerleau-Dalcourt, Natalie; Schella, Jason; Schreiner, L. John; Tantot, Laurent; Barajas, Eduardo Villareal; Bissonnette, Jean-Pierre

    2016-01-01

    A close partnership between the Canadian Partnership for Quality Radiotherapy (CPQR) and the Canadian Organization of Medical Physicist’s (COMP) Quality Assurance and Radiation Safety Advisory Committee (QARSAC) has resulted in the development of a suite of Technical Quality Control (TQC) Guidelines for radiation treatment equipment, that outline specific performance objectives and criteria that equipment should meet in order to assure an acceptable level of radiation treatment quality. The framework includes consolidation of existing guidelines and/or literature by expert reviewers, structured stages of public review, external field-testing and ratification by COMP. The adopted framework for the development and maintenance of the TQCs ensures the guidelines incorporate input from the medical physics community during development, measures the workload required to perform the QC tests outlined in each TQC, and remain relevant (i.e. “living documents”) through subsequent planned reviews and updates. This presentation will show the Multi-Leaf Linear Accelerator document as an example of how feedback and cross-national work to achieve a robust guidance document. During field-testing, each technology was tested at multiple centres in a variety of clinic environments. As part of the defined feedback, workload data was captured. This lead to average time associated with testing as defined in each TQC document. As a result, for a medium-sized centre comprising 6 linear accelerators and a comprehensive brachytherapy program, we evaluate the physics workload to 1.5 full-time equivalent physicist per year to complete all QC tests listed in this suite.

  1. Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: development of group-contribution+ (GC+) property models and uncertainty analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

    2012-11-26

    The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution(+) (GC(+)) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality of parameter estimation, such as the parameter covariance, the standard errors in predicted properties, and the confidence intervals. For parameter estimation, large data sets of experimentally measured property values of a wide range of chemicals (hydrocarbons, oxygenated chemicals, nitrogenated chemicals, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22 environment-related properties, which include the fathead minnow 96-h LC(50), Daphnia magna 48-h LC(50), oral rat LD(50), aqueous solubility, bioconcentration factor, permissible exposure limit (OSHA-TWA), photochemical oxidation potential, global warming potential, ozone depletion potential, acidification potential, emission to urban air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental rural air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental fresh water (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental seawater (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental natural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), and emission to continental agricultural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) have been modeled and analyzed. The application

  2. Development of the ENVI simulator to estimate Korean SNF flow and its cost - 16060

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Yongsoo; Miller, Ian

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea. A companion paper (Hwang and Miller, 2009) describes a performance assessment model to address the long-term safety of alternative geological disposal options for different waste streams. The model addresses alternative concepts for storage, transportation, and processing of SNF of different types (Candu, PWR), leading up to permanent disposal in geological repositories. It uses the GoldSim software to simulate the logistics of the associated activities, including the associated capital and operating costs. The model's results allow direct comparison of alternative waste management concepts, and predict the sizes and timings of different facilities required. Future versions of the model will also address the uncertainties associated with the different system components in order to provide risk-based assessments. (authors)

  3. Effectiveness of three age estimation methods based on dental and skeletal development in a sample of young Brazilians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Marcelo Afonso; Daruge Júnior, Eduardo; Fernandes, Mário Marques; Lima, Igor Felipe Pereira; Cericato, Graziela Oro; Franco, Ademir; Paranhos, Luiz Renato

    2018-01-01

    This study compared three methods designed for age estimation. A sample of 468 radiographs (234 panoramic and 234 carpal radiographs) collected from patients ranging from 5 to 14 years old (mean age: 11.27years old±2.27years) was used. Three age estimation methods: were applied: one founded on dental development, one founded on hand and wrist development, and a method combining both measurements. For each method, the mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean percentage of absolute error (MPAE) were quantified. The methods: were compared based on their effectiveness for estimating age in relation to sex and age range. The data show that the method exclusively using the development of the hand and wrist had the highest error rates (ME: 1.28M, 1.85F; MAE: 1.64M, 1.96F; RMSE: 1.94M, 2.32F) for both males (M) and females (F). In males, the method combining dental and skeletal development obtained outcomes that were slightly better than the method founded on only dental development (MPAE: 6.99% and 7.47%, respectively). In females, the opposite result was observed (MPAE: 8.48% and 6.59%, respectively). The method founded exclusively on skeletal development significantly overestimated (p=0.001) the age (mean chronological and estimated ages: 11.27 and 12.88, respectively). The methods involving dental development provided more accurate age estimates of chronological age. The method exclusively based on hand and wrist development resulted in outcomes that were highly discrepant from the chronological age. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. ESTIMATING MORAL DEVELOPMENT IN A SAMPLE OF ALTERNATIVE FORMULAS OF PRISON SENTENCED BENEFICIARIES FROM WEST VENEZUELA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS ENRIQUE ZERPA

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available The level of moral development in a sampled of convicts from West Venezuela is presented. The studywas carried out by means of Defining Issues Test (DIT evaluation. The sample includes 50 persons between19 and 55 years old (M = 34,33 y DT = 8,76, out of them 39 were males (average age 33,74,DT=8,24 an 11 were females (average age 35,91, DT=10,67. All of them were beneficiaries of alternativesformulas of their respective sentences such as social work, parole or conditional suspension ofsentences and following the corresponding process or rehabilitation out of prisons. This sample registereda moral principles index of 19,67 and a non-relevant answers index of 12,07 as well as fourthmoral developmental stage of 41,3 which are unusually high. The results suggest that there is not astatistically significant difference in the pattern of moral development depending on sex, age, or institutionfor sentenced fulfillment. However, the unusual high pattern of answers and the inverse correspondence between the duration of sentences and the resulting level of moral principles suggest that thesample behaves in a way, which is different from what is expected in no-out-law samples. Findings andimplications are discused.

  5. Methods for developing useful estimates of the costs associated with birth defects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Amy P; Canfield, Mark A

    2009-11-01

    Cost estimates for birth defects are useful to policy makers in deciding the best use of resources to prevent these conditions. Much of the effort in this area has focused on spina bifida, in part because cost savings can be estimated from folic acid-preventable cases. However, comprehensive cost-of-illness estimates for this condition may be too outdated, too general, or not applicable to individual states' environments. Using the live birth prevalence for spina bifida in Texas, we applied recent spina bifida cost estimates to approximate total lifetime medical and other costs for an average live birth cohort of spina bifida cases in Texas. In addition, we queried various government programs that provide services for persons with spina bifida to provide program-specific annual costs for this condition. Applying a recently published average lifetime medical cost of $635,000 per case of spina bifida to the average annual birth cohort of 120 Texas cases, an estimated $76 million in direct and indirect medical and other costs will be incurred in Texas over the life span of that cohort. Examples of estimated medical costs for one year are $5 million for infants using actual employer-paid insurance claims data and $6 million combined for children in two public sector programs. Stakeholders and state policy makers may look to state birth defects registries for useful cost data. Although comprehensive state-specific figures are not available, applying prevalence data to existing estimates and obtaining actual claims and program expenditures may help close this information gap.

  6. Development of Hybrid Model for Estimating Construction Waste for Multifamily Residential Buildings Using Artificial Neural Networks and Ant Colony Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongoun Lee

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Due to the increasing costs of construction waste disposal, an accurate estimation of the amount of construction waste is a key factor in a project’s success. Korea has been burdened by increasing construction waste as a consequence of the growing number of construction projects and a lack of construction waste management (CWM strategies. One of the problems associated with predicting the amount of waste is that there are no suitable estimation strategies currently available. Therefore, we developed a hybrid estimation model to predict the quantity and cost of waste in the early stage of construction. The proposed approach can be used to address cost overruns and improve CWM in the subsequent stages of construction. The proposed hybrid model uses artificial neural networks (ANNs and ant colony optimization (ACO. It is expected to provide an accurate waste estimate by applying historical data from multifamily residential buildings.

  7. Development of the town data base: Estimates of exposure rates and times of fallout arrival near the Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.B.; McArthur, R.D.; Hutchinson, S.W.

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Off-Site Radiation Exposure Review Project, the time of fallout arrival and the H+12 exposure rate were estimated for populated locations in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah that were affected by fallout from one or more nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. Estimates of exposure rate were derived from measured values recorded before and after each test by fallout monitors in the field. The estimate for a given location was obtained by retrieving from a data base all measurements made in the vicinity, decay-correcting them to H+12, and calculating an average. Estimates were also derived from maps produced after most events that show isopleths of exposure rate and time of fallout arrival. Both sets of isopleths on these maps were digitized, and kriging was used to interpolate values at the nodes of a 10-km grid covering the pattern. The values at any location within the grid were then estimated from the values at the surrounding grid nodes. Estimates of dispersion (standard deviation) were also calculated. The Town Data Base contains the estimates for all combinations of location and nuclear event for which the estimated mean H+12 exposure rate was greater than three times background. A listing of the data base is included as an appendix. The information was used by other project task groups to estimate the radiation dose that off-site populations and individuals may have received as a result of exposure to fallout from Nevada nuclear tests

  8. Development of the town data base: Estimates of exposure rates and times of fallout arrival near the Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, C.B.; McArthur, R.D. [Univ. and Community College System of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Hutchinson, S.W. [Mead Johnson Nutritional Group, Evansville, IN (United States)

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy`s Off-Site Radiation Exposure Review Project, the time of fallout arrival and the H+12 exposure rate were estimated for populated locations in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah that were affected by fallout from one or more nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. Estimates of exposure rate were derived from measured values recorded before and after each test by fallout monitors in the field. The estimate for a given location was obtained by retrieving from a data base all measurements made in the vicinity, decay-correcting them to H+12, and calculating an average. Estimates were also derived from maps produced after most events that show isopleths of exposure rate and time of fallout arrival. Both sets of isopleths on these maps were digitized, and kriging was used to interpolate values at the nodes of a 10-km grid covering the pattern. The values at any location within the grid were then estimated from the values at the surrounding grid nodes. Estimates of dispersion (standard deviation) were also calculated. The Town Data Base contains the estimates for all combinations of location and nuclear event for which the estimated mean H+12 exposure rate was greater than three times background. A listing of the data base is included as an appendix. The information was used by other project task groups to estimate the radiation dose that off-site populations and individuals may have received as a result of exposure to fallout from Nevada nuclear tests.

  9. Development of sustainable precision farming systems for swine: estimating real-time individual amino acid requirements in growing-finishing pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauschild, L; Lovatto, P A; Pomar, J; Pomar, C

    2012-07-01

    The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a mathematical model used to estimate the daily amino acid requirements of individual growing-finishing pigs. The model includes empirical and mechanistic model components. The empirical component estimates daily feed intake (DFI), BW, and daily gain (DG) based on individual pig information collected in real time. Based on DFI, BW, and DG estimates, the mechanistic component uses classic factorial equations to estimate the optimal concentration of amino acids that must be offered to each pig to meet its requirements. The model was evaluated with data from a study that investigated the effect of feeding pigs with a 3-phase or daily multiphase system. The DFI and BW values measured in this study were compared with those estimated by the empirical component of the model. The coherence of the values estimated by the mechanistic component was evaluated by analyzing if it followed a normal pattern of requirements. Lastly, the proposed model was evaluated by comparing its estimates with those generated by the existing growth model (InraPorc). The precision of the proposed model and InraPorc in estimating DFI and BW was evaluated through the mean absolute error. The empirical component results indicated that the DFI and BW trajectories of individual pigs fed ad libitum could be predicted 1 d (DFI) or 7 d (BW) ahead with the average mean absolute error of 12.45 and 1.85%, respectively. The average mean absolute error obtained with the InraPorc for the average individual of the population was 14.72% for DFI and 5.38% for BW. Major differences were observed when estimates from InraPorc were compared with individual observations. The proposed model, however, was effective in tracking the change in DFI and BW for each individual pig. The mechanistic model component estimated the optimal standardized ileal digestible Lys to NE ratio with reasonable between animal (average CV = 7%) and overtime (average CV = 14%) variation

  10. DEVELOPMENT OF AN ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE EYE LENS DOSE IN TERMS OF OPERATIONAL QUANTITY Hp(3) USING HEAD TLD BADGE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madhumita, B; Sneha, C; Dipali, V; Pradhan, S M; Bakshi, A K; Datta, D; Tripathi, S M; Singh, S K

    2018-03-01

    In view of the recommendations of International Commission on Radiological Protection for reduction of the occupational annual dose limit for eye lens from 150 mSv to 20 mSv/y, questions have been raised on the adequacy of monitoring for the quantities Hp(10) and Hp(0.07). As an immediate requirement, in the present situation, where there is no exclusive eye lens dosemeter in India, the existing chest TLD badge was modified to be used as head badge (head dosemeter) by including a strap to enable wearing on the forehead. In order to estimate the eye lens dose in terms of the operational quantity Hp(3), the prevalent algorithm of chest badge was also modified. The modified algorithm was applied to estimate Hp(3) for dosemeters irradiated to various beta and photon radiations including mixtures. The Q values (estimated/delivered dose equivalent) were found to be within ±20% for most of the photon beams.

  11. Non-parametric kernel density estimation of species sensitivity distributions in developing water quality criteria of metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying; Wu, Fengchang; Giesy, John P; Feng, Chenglian; Liu, Yuedan; Qin, Ning; Zhao, Yujie

    2015-09-01

    Due to use of different parametric models for establishing species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), comparison of water quality criteria (WQC) for metals of the same group or period in the periodic table is uncertain and results can be biased. To address this inadequacy, a new probabilistic model, based on non-parametric kernel density estimation was developed and optimal bandwidths and testing methods are proposed. Zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), and mercury (Hg) of group IIB of the periodic table are widespread in aquatic environments, mostly at small concentrations, but can exert detrimental effects on aquatic life and human health. With these metals as target compounds, the non-parametric kernel density estimation method and several conventional parametric density estimation methods were used to derive acute WQC of metals for protection of aquatic species in China that were compared and contrasted with WQC for other jurisdictions. HC5 values for protection of different types of species were derived for three metals by use of non-parametric kernel density estimation. The newly developed probabilistic model was superior to conventional parametric density estimations for constructing SSDs and for deriving WQC for these metals. HC5 values for the three metals were inversely proportional to atomic number, which means that the heavier atoms were more potent toxicants. The proposed method provides a novel alternative approach for developing SSDs that could have wide application prospects in deriving WQC and use in assessment of risks to ecosystems.

  12. Development of an evolutionary fuzzy expert system for estimating future behavior of stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmanpazir, Farhad; Asadi, Shahrokh

    2017-03-01

    The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a "data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system" (DEFES) approach to estimate the behavior of stock price. This tool is developed in seven-stage architecture. Data mining is used in three stages to reduce the complexity of the whole data space. The first stage, noise filtering, is used to make our raw data clean and smooth. Variable selection is second stage; we use stepwise regression analysis to choose the key variables been considered in the model. In the third stage, K-means is used to divide the data into sub-populations to decrease the effects of noise and rebate complexity of the patterns. At next stage, extraction of Mamdani type fuzzy rule-based system will be carried out for each cluster by means of genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy. In the fifth stage, we use binary genetic algorithm to rule filtering to remove the redundant rules in order to solve over learning phenomenon. In the sixth stage, we utilize the genetic tuning process to slightly adjust the shape of the membership functions. Last stage is the testing performance of tool and adjusts parameters. This is the first study on using an approximate fuzzy rule base system and evolutionary strategy with the ability of extracting the whole knowledge base of fuzzy expert system for stock price forecasting problems. The superiority and applicability of DEFES are shown for International Business Machines Corporation and compared the outcome with the results of the other methods. Results with MAPE metric and Wilcoxon signed ranks test indicate that DEFES provides more accuracy and outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a superior tool for

  13. DEVELOPMENT OF A HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL OF A HYDROCYCLONE INCLUDING THE SIMULATION OF AIR-CORE EFFECT, USING THE FINITE VOLUME METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Felipe Aguilera

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The hydrocyclone is one of the most used classification equipment in industry, particularly in mineral processing. Maybe its main characteristic is to be a hydrodynamic separation equipment, whereby it has a high production capability and different levels of efficiency are depending on the geometrical configuration, operational parameters and the type of material to be processed. Nevertheless, there are a few successful studies regarding the modelling and simulation of its hydrodynamic principles, because the flow behavior inside is quite complex. Most of the current models are empirical and they are not applicable to all cases and types of minerals. One of the most important problems to be solved, besides the cut size and the effect of the physical properties of the particles, is the distribution of the flow inside the hydrocyclone, because if the work of the equipment is at low slurry densities, very clear for small hydrocyclones, its mechanic behavior is a consequence of the kind of liquid used as continuous phase, being water the most common liquid. This work shows the modelling and simulation of the hydrodynamic behavior of a suspension inside a hydrocyclone, including the air core effect, through the use of finite differences method. For the developing of the model, the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM for the evaluation of turbulence, and the Volume of Fluid (VOF to study the interaction between water and air were used. Finally, the model shows to be significant for experimental data, and for different conditions of an industrial plant.

  14. Development and comparision of techniques for estimating design basis flood flows for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-05-01

    Estimation of the design basis flood for Nuclear Power Plants can be carried out using either deterministic or stochastic techniques. Stochastic techniques, while widely used for the solution of a variety of hydrological and other problems, have not been used to date (1980) in connection with the estimation of design basis flood for NPP siting. This study compares the two techniques against one specific river site (Galt on the Grand River, Ontario). The study concludes that both techniques lead to comparable results , but that stochastic techniques have the advantage of extracting maximum information from available data and presenting the results (flood flow) as a continuous function of probability together with estimation of confidence limits. (author)

  15. Using the Optical Fractionator to Estimate Total Cell Numbers in the Normal and Abnormal Developing Human Forebrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Karen B

    2017-01-01

    Human fetal brain development is a complex process which is vulnerable to disruption at many stages. Although histogenesis is well-documented, only a few studies have quantified cell numbers across normal human fetal brain growth. Due to the present lack of normative data it is difficult to gauge...... abnormal development. Furthermore, many studies of brain cell numbers have employed biased counting methods, whereas innovations in stereology during the past 20-30 years enable reliable and efficient estimates of cell numbers. However, estimates of cell volumes and densities in fetal brain samples...... are unreliable due to unpredictable shrinking artifacts, and the fragility of the fetal brain requires particular care in handling and processing. The optical fractionator design offers a direct and robust estimate of total cell numbers in the fetal brain with a minimum of handling of the tissue. Bearing...

  16. Preliminary methodological proposal for estimating environmental flows in projects approved by the ministry of environment and sustainable development (MADS), Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinilla Agudelo, Gabriel A; Rodriguez Sandoval, Erasmo A; Camacho Botero, Luis A

    2014-01-01

    A methodological proposal for estimating environmental flows in large projects approved by Agencia Nacional de Licencias Ambientales (ANLA) in Colombian rivers was developed. The project is the result of an agreement between the MADS and the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota (UNC). The proposed method begins with an evaluation of hydrological criteria, continues with a hydraulic and water quality validation, and follows with the determination of habitat integrity. This is an iterative process that compares conditions before and after the project construction and allows to obtain the magnitude of a monthly flow that, besides preserving the ecological functions of the river, guarantees the water uses downstream. Regarding to the biotic component, the proposal includes the establishment and monitoring of biotic integrity indices for four aquatic communities (periphyton, macro invertebrates, riparian vegetation, and fish). The effects that flow reduction may produce in the medium and long term can be assessed by these indices. We present the results of applying the methodology to several projects licensed by the MADS.

  17. Development of an equation for estimating appendicular skeletal muscle mass in Japanese older adults using bioelectrical impedance analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Daisuke; Shimada, Hiroyuki; Park, Hyuntae; Anan, Yuya; Ito, Tadashi; Harada, Atsushi; Suzuki, Takao

    2014-10-01

    Bioelectrical impedance analysis has been reported to have high reliability and accuracy in assessing body composition. However, equations for estimating appendicular skeletal muscle mass are population-specific, and few have been developed for older Japanese adults. Thus, the purpose of the present study was to develop and validate an estimate equation for appendicular skeletal muscle mass using bioelectrical impedance analysis. A total of 250 older adults aged 65 years and older participated in this study. Appendicular skeletal muscle mass was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and bioelectrical resistance was measured using a multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analyzer. Multiple regression analysis was applied to derive sex-specific estimation formulae using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and a Bland-Altman analysis was used to test agreement. The cross-validation results showed that the slopes and intercepts of the regression lines were approximately one and zero, respectively, and the coefficients of determination and standard errors of the estimate of the newly developed equations were similar between the two groups. Thus, the single sex-specific equations were developed using all participants as follows. Men: appendicular skeletal muscle mass=0.197 × (impedance index) +0.179 × (weight) -0.019 (R(2)  =0.87, standard error of the estimate=0.98 kg). Women: appendicular skeletal muscle mass=0.221 × (impedance index) +0.117 × (weight) +0.881 (R(2)  =0.89, standard error of the estimate=0.81 kg). These new equations offer a valid option for assessing appendicular skeletal muscle mass in older Japanese adults. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  18. Estimation of the Level of Cognitive Development of a Preschool Child Using the System of Situations with Mathematical Contents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorev, Pavel M.; Bichurina, Svetlana Y.; Yakupova, Rufiya M.; Khairova, Irina V.

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive development of personality can be considered as one of the key directions of preschool education presented in the world practice, where preschool programs are educational ones, and preschool education is the first level of the general education. Thereby the purpose of the research is to create a model of reliable estimation of cognitive…

  19. Urban forest biomass estimates: is it important to use allometric relationships developed specifically for urban trees? 

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.R. McHale; I.C. Burke; M.A. Lefsky; P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson

    2009-01-01

    Many studies have analyzed the benefits, costs, and carbon storage capacity associated with urban trees. These studies have been limited by a lack of research on urban tree biomass, such that estimates of carbon storage in urban systems have relied upon allometric relationships developed in traditional forests. As urbanization increases globally, it is becoming...

  20. Development of a Probabilistic Technique for On-line Parameter and State Estimation in Non-linear Dynamic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tunc Aldemir; Miller, Don W.; Hajek, Brian K.; Peng Wang

    2002-01-01

    The DSD (Dynamic System Doctor) is a system-independent, interactive software under development for on-line state/parameter estimation in dynamic systems (1), partially supported through a Nuclear Engineering Education (NEER) grant during 1998-2001. This paper summarizes the recent accomplishments in improving the user-friendliness and computational capability of DSD

  1. A Review On The Development And Application Of Methods For Estimating Head Loss Components In Water Distribution Pipework

    OpenAIRE

    John I. Sodiki; Emmanuel M. Adigio

    2014-01-01

    The historical development of the common methods of estimating the frictional loss and the loss through pipe fittings in water distribution systems (respectively, the Hazen-Williams and D’Arcy-Weisbach equations) are briefly reviewed. Furthermore, the methods of applying these equations to index pipe runs are outlined.

  2. The SVM Method for Fissile Mass Estimation through Passive Neutron Interrogation: Advances and Developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubi, C.; Shvili, Israel I.

    2014-01-01

    Fissile mass estimation through passive neutron interrogation is now one of the main techniques for NDT of fissile mass estimation, due to the relative transparency of neutron radiation to structural materials- making it extremely effective in poorly characterized or dirty samples . Passive neutron interrogation relies on the fact that the number of neutrons emitted (per time unit) due to spontaneous fissions from the sample is proportional to the mass of the detected sample. However, since the measurement is effected by additional neutron sources- mainly (D±n) reactions and induced fission chain in the tested sample, a naive estimation, assuming a linear correspondence between the mass of the detected sample and the average number of detections, is bound to give an over estimation of the mass. Since most passive interrogation facilities are based on 3He detectors, the origin of the neutron cannot be determined by analyzing the energy spectrum (as all neutrons arrive at the detector in more or less the same energy), and a mathematical 'filter' is used to evaluate the noise to source ratio in the detection signal. The basic idea behind the mathematical filter is to utilize the fact that the different neutron sources have different statistical attributes- in particular, both the source event rate and the distribution of the number of neutrons released in each event differs between the different sources. There for, by studying the higher moments of the neutron population, new information about the source to noise ration may be obtained

  3. Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Psychometric Model of Discontinuous Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mislevy, Robert J.; Wilson, Mark

    1996-01-01

    Marginal maximum likelihood estimation equations are derived for the structural parameters of the Saltus model, and a computing approximation is suggested based on the EM algorithm. The solution is illustrated with simulated data and an example from the domain of mixed number subtraction. (SLD)

  4. Estimating success probability of a rugby goal kick and developing a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was firstly to derive a formula to estimate the success probability of a particular rugby goal kick and, secondly to derive a goal kicker rating measure that could be used to rank rugby union goal kickers. Various factors that could influence the success of a particular goal kick were considered.

  5. Rain Forest Tourism - Estimating the Benefits of Tourism Development in a New National Park in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Evan Mercer; R. Kramer; N. Sharma

    1995-01-01

    Travel cost and contingent valuation methods are applied to the problem of estimating the potential consumer surplus available to international nature tourists from a rain forest conservation project in Madagascar. Data are derived from surveys of nature tourists in Madagascar and international, nature tourism professionals in the U.S. and Europe. Typical trip travel...

  6. Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with flexible error structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Shiftan, Yoram; Bekhor, Shlomo

    -response model and the utility-based choice by alternatively (i) a nested-logit model and (ii) an error-component logit. In order to test the suggested methodology, the model was estimated for a sample of 1,893 ranked choices and respective threshold values from 631 students who participated in a web-based two...

  7. Estimating the market for tuberculosis drugs in industrialized and developing nations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, N R; Wells, W A; Geaneotes, A P; Forcellina, A; Lee, M G; Dicola, L; Ignatius, H R; Walker, C L; Raafat, T; Patel, N

    2008-10-01

    The successful introduction of new drugs into low- and middle-income countries requires an understanding of the existing market size and market dynamics for the therapeutic area of interest. The drug markets in these countries are, however, less well understood than those in high-income countries. The global market for tuberculosis (TB) drugs was estimated by studying in detail six high-burden countries and four high-income countries, followed by extrapolation. Data were derived from existing pharmaceutical audit databases and interviews with government officials, medical staff and suppliers. The use of qualitative inputs to inform the collection of quantitative information, notably to identify where the major flows of TB drugs are located, allowed a confident estimate of the global market for first-line TB drugs. Final ranges were US$261-316 million or US$310-418 million, depending on whether case notification rates or incidence were used for extrapolations. An estimation of the global TB drug market is made more reliable by a qualitative understanding of TB drug distribution pathways, which differ greatly among countries. The understanding of this structure in key high-burden countries provides the basis for a simpler update of the market estimate in the future.

  8. FINANCIAL STABILITY OF SMALL BUSINESS: THE ESTIMATION AND DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.U. Makarova

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available In clause the problem of an estimation of financial stability of the enterprises of small business is considered. It is offered to use traditional indicators of an estimation of the financial stability, describing it in the short-term period, and such indicators as equation of monetary streams, qualitative risk-management, a level äèâåðñèôèêàöèè business and competitive position of the company for an estimation of stability in the long-term period. On the basis of data of statistical supervision over small enterprises the estimation of dynamics of results of financial activity and financial stability of small enterprises of Sverdlovsk area is lead to 2001 – 2005 is drawn a conclusion about low parameters of solvency and financial stability of small enterprises of region in comparison with normative parameters and data on the large and average enterprises. The measures directed on increase of financial stability of the enterprises of small business are offered.

  9. Metabolite concentrations in the developing brain estimated with proton MR spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, P B; Leth, H; Lou, H C

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to estimate absolute concentrations and relaxation time constants of metabolites that were detectable with proton magnetic resonance (MR) spectroscopy in the healthy preterm, term, and infant brain. Five MR spectra were recorded for each infant by using STEAM ...... concentration. The concentration of PCr+Cr increased rapidly and reached adolescent values at approximately 4 months of age....

  10. Development of 1-Mile Walk Tests to Estimate Aerobic Fitness in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Hoyong; Collier, David N.; DuBose, Katrina D.; Kemble, C. David; Mahar, Matthew T.

    2018-01-01

    To examine the reliability and validity of 1-mile walk tests for estimation of aerobic fitness (VO[subscript 2max]) in 10- to 13-year-old children and to cross-validate previously published equations. Participants (n = 61) walked 1-mile on two different days. Self-reported physical activity, demographic variables, and aerobic fitness were used in…

  11. Development and validation of a method to estimate body weight in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mid-arm circumference (MAC) has previously been used as a surrogate indicator of habitus, and the objective of this study was to determine whether MAC cut-off values could be used to predict habitus scores (HSs) to create an objective and standardised weight estimation methodology, the PAWPER XL-MAC method.

  12. Development of a Trip Energy Estimation Model Using Real-World Global Positioning System Driving Data: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holden, Jacob [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wood, Eric W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhu, Lei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gonder, Jeffrey D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tian, Ye [Metropia, Inc.

    2017-09-15

    A data-driven technique for estimation of energy requirements for a proposed vehicle trip has been developed. Based on over 700,000 miles of driving data, the technique has been applied to generate a model that estimates trip energy requirements. The model uses a novel binning approach to categorize driving by road type, traffic conditions, and driving profile. The trip-level energy estimations can easily be aggregated to any higher-level transportation system network desired. The model has been tested and validated on the Austin, Texas, data set used to build this model. Ground-truth energy consumption for the data set was obtained from Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) vehicle simulation results. The energy estimation model has demonstrated 12.1 percent normalized total absolute error. The energy estimation from the model can be used to inform control strategies in routing tools, such as change in departure time, alternate routing, and alternate destinations, to reduce energy consumption. The model can also be used to determine more accurate energy consumption of regional or national transportation networks if trip origin and destinations are known. Additionally, this method allows the estimation tool to be tuned to a specific driver or vehicle type.

  13. Developing Daily Quantitative Damage Estimates From Geospatial Layers To Support Post Event Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, B. K.; Wei, L. H.; Connor, T. C.

    2014-12-01

    With the growth of natural hazard data available in near real-time it is increasingly feasible to deliver damage estimates caused by natural disasters. These estimates can be used in disaster management setting or by commercial entities to optimize the deployment of resources and/or routing of goods and materials. This work outlines an end-to-end, modular process to generate estimates of damage caused by severe weather. The processing stream consists of five generic components: 1) Hazard modules that provide quantitate data layers for each peril. 2) Standardized methods to map the hazard data to an exposure layer based on atomic geospatial blocks. 3) Peril-specific damage functions that compute damage metrics at the atomic geospatial block level. 4) Standardized data aggregators, which map damage to user-specific geometries. 5) Data dissemination modules, which provide resulting damage estimates in a variety of output forms. This presentation provides a description of this generic tool set, and an illustrated example using HWRF-based hazard data for Hurricane Arthur (2014). In this example, the Python-based real-time processing ingests GRIB2 output from the HWRF numerical model, dynamically downscales it in conjunctions with a land cover database using a multiprocessing pool, and a just-in-time compiler (JIT). The resulting wind fields are contoured, and ingested into a PostGIS database using OGR. Finally, the damage estimates are calculated at the atomic block level and aggregated to user-defined regions using PostgreSQL queries to construct application specific tabular and graphics output.

  14. Model developments for quantitative estimates of the benefits of the signals on nuclear power plant availability and economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seong, Poong Hyun

    1993-01-01

    A novel framework for quantitative estimates of the benefits of signals on nuclear power plant availability and economics has been developed in this work. The models developed in this work quantify how the perfect signals affect the human operator's success in restoring the power plant to the desired state when it enters undesirable transients. Also, the models quantify the economic benefits of these perfect signals. The models have been applied to the condensate feedwater system of the nuclear power plant for demonstration. (Author)

  15. Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol; Brindle, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors.\\ud \\ud Design: Prospective open cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database.\\ud \\ud Participants: 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the s...

  16. Development of a method for estimating oesophageal temperature by multi-locational temperature measurement inside the external auditory canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakada, Hirofumi; Horie, Seichi; Kawanami, Shoko; Inoue, Jinro; Iijima, Yoshinori; Sato, Kiyoharu; Abe, Takeshi

    2017-09-01

    We aimed to develop a practical method to estimate oesophageal temperature by measuring multi-locational auditory canal temperatures. This method can be applied to prevent heatstroke by simultaneously and continuously monitoring the core temperatures of people working under hot environments. We asked 11 healthy male volunteers to exercise, generating 80 W for 45 min in a climatic chamber set at 24, 32 and 40 °C, at 50% relative humidity. We also exposed the participants to radiation at 32 °C. We continuously measured temperatures at the oesophagus, rectum and three different locations along the external auditory canal. We developed equations for estimating oesophageal temperatures from auditory canal temperatures and compared their fitness and errors. The rectal temperature increased or decreased faster than oesophageal temperature at the start or end of exercise in all conditions. Estimated temperature showed good similarity with oesophageal temperature, and the square of the correlation coefficient of the best fitting model reached 0.904. We observed intermediate values between rectal and oesophageal temperatures during the rest phase. Even under the condition with radiation, estimated oesophageal temperature demonstrated concordant movement with oesophageal temperature at around 0.1 °C overestimation. Our method measured temperatures at three different locations along the external auditory canal. We confirmed that the approach can credibly estimate the oesophageal temperature from 24 to 40 °C for people performing exercise in the same place in a windless environment.

  17. Expanding the MTM1 mutational spectrum: novel variants including the first multi-exonic duplication and development of a locus-specific database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Jorge; Oliveira, Márcia E; Kress, Wolfram; Taipa, Ricardo; Pires, Manuel Melo; Hilbert, Pascale; Baxter, Peter; Santos, Manuela; Buermans, Henk; den Dunnen, Johan T; Santos, Rosário

    2013-05-01

    Myotubular myopathy (MIM#310400), the X-linked form of Centronuclear myopathy (CNM) is mainly characterized by neonatal hypotonia and inability to maintain unassisted respiration. The MTM1 gene, responsible for this disease, encodes myotubularin - a lipidic phosphatase involved in vesicle trafficking regulation and maturation. Recently, it was shown that myotubularin interacts with desmin, being a major regulator of intermediate filaments. We report the development of a locus-specific database for MTM1 using the Leiden Open Variation database software (http://www.lovd.nl/MTM1), with data collated for 474 mutations identified in 472 patients (by June 2012). Among the entries are a total of 25 new mutations, including a large deletion encompassing introns 2-15. During database implementation it was noticed that no large duplications had been reported. We tested a group of eight uncharacterized CNM patients for this specific type of mutation, by multiple ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) analysis. A large duplication spanning exons 1-5 was identified in a boy with a mild phenotype, with results pointing toward possible somatic mosaicism. Further characterization revealed that this duplication causes an in-frame deletion at the mRNA level (r.343_444del). Results obtained with a next generation sequencing approach suggested that the duplication extends into the neighboring MAMLD1 gene and subsequent cDNA analysis detected the presence of a MTM1/MAMLD1 fusion transcript. A complex rearrangement involving the duplication of exon 10 has since been reported, with detection also enabled by MLPA analysis. It is thus conceivable that large duplications in MTM1 may account for a number of CNM cases that have remained genetically unresolved.

  18. SU-E-T-138: Automated Chart Review Module Including Cross-Vendor Data Transfer Verification Developed for IHE-RO Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewer, M; Gordon, C; Tien, C

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To follow the Integrating Healthcare Enterprise - Radiation Oncology (IHE-RO) initiative of proper cross-vendor technology integration, an automated chart checker (ACC) was developed. ACC compares extracted data from an approved patient plan in the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) against data existing in the Mosaiq treatment management system (TMS). ACC automatically analyzes these parameters using built-in quality checklists to provide further aid in chart review. Methods: Eclipse TPS data are obtained using Eclipse scripting API (ESAPI) while Mosaiq TMS data are obtained from a radiotherapy-treatment-planning (RTP) file. Using this information, ACC identifies TPS-TMS discrepancies in 18 primary beam parameters including MU, energy, jaw positions, gantry angle, table angle, accessories, and bolus for up to 31 beams. Next, approximately 40 items from traditional quality checklists are evaluated such as prescription consistency, DRR graticule placement, plan approval status, global max dose, and dose tracking coefficients. Parameters were artificially modified to determine if ACC would detect an error in data transfer and to test each component of quality checklists. Results: Using ESAPI scripting and RTP file-processing, ACC was able to properly aggregate data from TPS and TMS for up to 31 beams. Errors were artificially introduced into each plan parameter, and ACC was able to successfully detect all of them within seconds. Next, ACC was able to successfully detect mistakes in the chart by identifying deviations with its quality checklists, within seconds. Conclusion: ACC effectively addresses the potential issue of faulty cross-vendor data transfer, as described by IHE-RO. In addition, ACC was also able to detect deviations from its built-in quality checklists. ACC is already an invaluable tool for efficient and standardized chart review and will continue to improve as its incorporated checklists become more comprehensive

  19. Carbon-dioxide storage in the subsurface: towards an understanding of crack development in the cap-rock including phase transition processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häberle, K.; Ehlers, W.

    2012-04-01

    Supercritical CO2 can be injected into deep saline aquifers to reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and thus, lessen the impact on the global warming. Qualified reservoirs should be in a sufficient depth to guarantee the thermodynamical environment for the supercritical state of CO2. Furthermore, an impermeable cap-rock layer must confine the reservoir layer, in order to collect the CO2 in the desired region. In CO2 storage it is crucial to guarantee the safety of the storage site and to eliminate possibilities of leakage. Therefore, deformation processes of the rock matrix and the cap-rock layer, which might be induced by the high pressure injection of CO2, must be investigated. The increase in stress may also cause crack development in the cap-rock layer. These could either be new developing fractures or the break-up of already existing but cemented cracks or faults. If such cracks occur, CO2 could migrate to shallower regions where the temperature and pressure cannot support the supercritical condition of the CO2 anymore. Thus, it is important to describe the phase transition process between supercritical, liquid and gaseous CO2. This requires a proper understanding of the thermodynamical behaviour of CO2 within the reservoir. The Theory of Porous Media (TPM) provides a useful continuum-mechanical basis to describe real natural systems in a thermodynamically consistent way. Hence, the TPM is applied to model multiphasic flow of CO2 and water and include elasto-plastic solid deformations of the porous matrix. The Peng-Robinson equation is implemented as a cubic equation of state to describe the phase behaviour of CO2 in the liquid, gaseous and supercritical region. However, in the two-phase region the isotherms show a horizontal section and kinks at the boiling and vapour curve. This cannot be represented by a continuously differentiable function such as the Peng-Robinson equation. To circumvent this problem, the Antoine equation provides additional

  20. THE METODICAL APPROACH TO AN ESTIMATION OF INFLUENCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF A MINERAL-RAW COMPLEX ON A SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITION OF REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.G. Shelomentsev

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available In clause the methodical approach to an estimation of influence of development of a mineral-raw complex on a social and economic condition of regions is offered. The list of indicators of the influence, including both economic and the social indicators is developed, allowing to calculate an integrated rating and to define type of the subject of Federation on a level of influence of a raw complex on its social and economic development. The decision of these problems promotes creation of spatial preconditions of steady social and economic development of regions and Russia as a whole, supports of competitiveness of regions and settlements, identical availability of subjects of managing to the economic and social resources of development.

  1. Development of a method for calculating the cost of the program for decommissioning of nuclear power plants. Prognosis of future costs for the authorities including the corresponding net present value. Analysis performed May 6-7 and June 8 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borg, Lorens; Lichtenberg, Steen; Lindskog, Staffan

    2004-09-01

    The aim of this report is to present a calculation of the authorities' total future costs in terms of their activities to monitor a safe and prudent decommission of the power plants, including the long term storage of the used fuel. An assessment of the inherent uncertainty in this estimate is also made. The study forms an integrated part of the total monitoring into the financial assessment of the whole programme of decommissioning and demolition of the Swedish nuclear power plants that continuously is made by SKI. Hence, the estimate is presented with the additional function of supporting SKI's annual calculations of fees and contingencies in accordance with the Swedish Finance Act. Main result The expected Net Present Value of the authorities' costs as at January 2004 price level have consequently been estimated as follows: Mean Value (M): 2303 MSEK Standard deviation (S): 538 MSEK 8 This result tallies with the corresponding prognoses for the last two years. An additional clarification of a number of key figures resulted in some reduction of the total Net Present Value. By way of supplement to this main result, the undiscounted costs have been estimated (calculation 2). Besides, a tentative estimate has also been made by incorporating the official view on the future development on real rate of return in a long time perspective (calculation 3). The uncertainty of the result is significant in terms of the final budget figures and of the scale of the supplementary amounts in those situations where the budgets must be prudent and conservative. There may be a potential for further reduction of the current uncertainty in that the greatest causes of uncertainty now have been identified and ranked in order of priority. The greatest causes of uncertainty are set out in the table below. No. Cause of uncertainty Uncertainty group 1 Priority 2 1 Correction allowing for the uncertainty of the real interest rate N 55 % 2 Productivity E2 8 % 3 Uncertainty in the current base

  2. Development of the methodology for estimation of dose from a source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golebaone, E.M.

    2012-04-01

    The geometry of a source plays an important role when determining which method to apply in order to accurately estimate dose from a source. If wrong source geometry is used the dose received may be underestimated or overestimated therefore this may lead to wrong decision in dealing with the exposure situation. In this project moisture density gauge was used to represent a point source in order to demonstrate the key parameters to be used when estimating dose from point source. The parameters to be considered are activity of the source, the ambient dose rate, gamma constant for the radionuclide, as well as the transport index on the package of the source. The distance from the source, and the time spent in the radiation field must be known in order to calculate the dose. (author)

  3. Research and Development Program FY 1991 Budget Estimates for the Defense Mapping Agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    and upgraded Distribution System to determine best- method of integration. (U) FY 1991 Plans: Initiate the integration of the Distribution System with...Tmprovements A. (U) RESQUECES ($ in Thousands) Project Number FY 1989 FY 1990 FY 1991 To Total and Title £.Ztimatp E.1iMAtp F.ama- CDPA EgXQ9= (U)700... quality assurance support. C. (U) PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND PLANS: 12 FY 1991 BUDGET ESTIMATES RDT&E DESCRIPTIVE SUMMARY Program Element: 0305134 Budget

  4. Monte Carlo-based development of a shield and total background estimation for the COBRA experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidrich, Nadine

    2014-11-01

    The COBRA experiment aims for the measurement of the neutrinoless double beta decay and thus for the determination the effective Majorana mass of the neutrino. To be competitive with other next-generation experiments the background rate has to be in the order of 10 -3 counts/kg/keV/yr, which is a challenging criterion. This thesis deals with the development of a shield design and the calculation of the expected total background rate for the large scale COBRA experiment containing 13824 6 cm 3 CdZnTe detectors. For the development of a shield single-layer and multi-layer shields were investigated and a shield design was optimized concerning high-energy muon-induced neutrons. As the best design the combination of 10 cm boron doped polyethylene as outermost layer, 20 cm lead and 10 cm copper as innermost layer were determined. It showed the best performance regarding neutron attenuation as well as (n, γ) self-shielding effects leading to a negligible background rate of less than 2.10 -6 counts/kg/keV/yr. Additionally. the shield with a thickness of 40 cm is compact and costeffective. In the next step the expected total background rate was computed taking into account individual setup parts and various background sources including natural and man-made radioactivity, cosmic ray-induced background and thermal neutrons. Furthermore, a comparison of measured data from the COBRA demonstrator setup with Monte Carlo data was used to calculate reliable contamination levels of the single setup parts. The calculation was performed conservatively to prevent an underestimation. In addition, the contribution to the total background rate regarding the individual detector parts and background sources was investigated. The main portion arise from the Delrin support structure, the Glyptal lacquer followed by the circuit board of the high voltage supply. Most background events originate from particles with a quantity of 99 % in total. Regarding surface events a contribution of 26

  5. Development and Verification of the Tire/Road Friction Estimation Algorithm for Antilock Braking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Road friction information is very important for vehicle active braking control systems such as ABS, ASR, or ESP. It is not easy to estimate the tire/road friction forces and coefficient accurately because of the nonlinear system, parameters uncertainties, and signal noises. In this paper, a robust and effective tire/road friction estimation algorithm for ABS is proposed, and its performance is further discussed by simulation and experiment. The tire forces were observed by the discrete Kalman filter, and the road friction coefficient was estimated by the recursive least square method consequently. Then, the proposed algorithm was analysed and verified by simulation and road test. A sliding mode based ABS with smooth wheel slip ratio control and a threshold based ABS by pulse pressure control with significant fluctuations were used for the simulation. Finally, road tests were carried out in both winter and summer by the car equipped with the same threshold based ABS, and the algorithm was evaluated on different road surfaces. The results show that the proposed algorithm can identify the variation of road conditions with considerable accuracy and response speed.

  6. Advancing development of a limit reference point estimator for sea turtles, and evaluating methods for applying local management to highly migratory species

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — SWFSC is developing tools for estimation of limit reference points for marine turtles. These tools are being applied initially to estimate a limit reference point...

  7. A Muskingum-based methodology for river discharge estimation and rating curve development under significant lateral inflow conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Moramarco, Tommaso; Perumal, Muthiah

    2017-11-01

    Quite often the discharge at a site is estimated using the rating curve developed for that site and its development requires river flow measurements, which are costly, tedious and dangerous during severe floods. To circumvent the conventional rating curve development approach, Perumal et al. in 2007 and 2010 applied the Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage-hydrograph (VPMS) routing method for developing stage-discharge relationships especially at those ungauged river sites where stage measurements and details of section geometry are available, but discharge measurements are not made. The VPMS method enables to estimate rating curves at ungauged river sites with acceptable accuracy. But the application of the method is subjected to the limitation of negligible presence of lateral flow within the routing reach. To overcome this limitation, this study proposes an extension of the VPMS method, henceforth, known herein as the VPMS-Lin method, for enabling the streamflow assessment even when significant lateral inflow occurs along the river reach considered for routing. The lateral inflow is estimated through the continuity equation expressed in the characteristic form as advocated by Barbetta et al. in 2012. The VPMS-Lin, is tested on two rivers characterized by different geometric and hydraulic properties: 1) a 50 km reach of the Tiber River in (central Italy) and 2) a 73 km reach of the Godavari River in the peninsular India. The study demonstrates that both the upstream and downstream discharge hydrographs are well reproduced, with a root mean square error equal on average to about 35 and 1700 m3 s-1 for the Tiber River and the Godavari River case studies, respectively. Moreover, simulation studies carried out on a river stretch of the Tiber River using the one-dimensional hydraulic model MIKE11 and the VPMS-Lin models demonstrate the accuracy of the VMPS-Lin model, which besides enabling the estimation of streamflow, also enables the estimation of reach averaged

  8. Development of estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for use with the short willet food frequency questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rene Antonio A

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Studies have suggested that nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines have an etiologic role in adverse pregnancy outcomes and chronic diseases such as cancer. Although an extensive body of literature exists on estimates of these compounds in foods, the extant data varies in quality, quantified estimates, and relevance. Methods We developed estimates of nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines for food items listed in the Short Willet Food Frequency Questionnaire (WFFQ as adapted for use in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study. Multiple reference databases were searched for published literature reflecting nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamine values in foods. Relevant published literature was reviewed; only publications reporting results for items listed on the WFFQ were selected for inclusion. The references selected were prioritized according to relevance to the U.S. population. Results Based on our estimates, vegetable products contain the highest levels of nitrate, contributing as much as 189 mg/serving. Meat and bean products contain the highest levels of nitrites with values up to 1.84 mg/serving. Alcohol, meat and dairy products contain the highest values of nitrosamines with a maximum value of 0.531 μg/serving. The estimates of dietary nitrates, nitrites, and nitrosamines generated in this study are based on the published values currently available. Conclusion To our knowledge, these are the only estimates specifically designed for use with the adapted WFFQ and generated to represent food items available to the U.S. population. The estimates provided may be useful in other research studies, specifically in those exploring the relation between exposure to these compounds in foods and adverse health outcomes.

  9. Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate survival in patients with colorectal cancer: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-06-15

    Objective  To develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate absolute and conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer. Design  Cohort study. Setting  General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database linked to the national cancer registry. Participants  44 145 patients aged 15-99 with colorectal cancer from 947 practices to derive the equations. The equations were validated in 15 214 patients with colorectal cancer from 305 different QResearch practices and 437 821 patients with colorectal cancer from the national cancer registry. Main outcome measures  The primary outcome was all cause mortality and secondary outcome was colorectal cancer mortality. Methods  Cause specific hazards models were used to predict risks of colorectal cancer mortality and other cause mortality accounting for competing risks, and these risk estimates were combined to obtain risks of all cause mortality. Separate equations were derived for men and women. Several variables were tested: age, ethnicity, deprivation score, cancer stage, cancer grade, surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, family history of bowel cancer, anaemia, liver function test result, comorbidities, use of statins, use of aspirin, clinical values for anaemia, and platelet count. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in both validation cohorts at 1, 5, and 10 years. Results  The final models included the following variables in men and women: age, deprivation score, cancer stage, cancer grade, smoking status, colorectal surgery, chemotherapy, family history of bowel cancer, raised platelet count, abnormal liver function, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic renal disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, prescribed aspirin at diagnosis, and prescribed statins at diagnosis. Improved survival in women was associated with younger age, earlier stage of cancer, well or

  10. Systematic errors in temperature estimates from MODIS data covering the western Palearctic and their impact on a parasite development model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Alonso-Carné

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modelling of habitat suitability for parasites is a growing area of research due to its association with climate change and ensuing shifts in the distribution of infectious diseases. Such models depend on remote sensing data and require accurate, high-resolution temperature measurements. The temperature is critical for accurate estimation of development rates and potential habitat ranges for a given parasite. The MODIS sensors aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution temperature data for remote sensing applications. This paper describes comparative analysis of MODISderived temperatures relative to ground records of surface temperature in the western Palaearctic. The results show that MODIS overestimated maximum temperature values and underestimated minimum temperatures by up to 5-6 ºC. The combined use of both Aqua and Terra datasets provided the most accurate temperature estimates around latitude 35-44º N, with an overestimation during spring-summer months and an underestimation in autumn-winter. Errors in temperature estimation were associated with specific ecological regions within the target area as well as technical limitations in the temporal and orbital coverage of the satellites (e.g. sensor limitations and satellite transit times. We estimated error propagation of temperature uncertainties in parasite habitat suitability models by comparing outcomes of published models. Error estimates reached 36% of annual respective measurements depending on the model used. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of adequate image processing and points out the limitations of MODIS temperature data as inputs into predictive models concerning parasite lifecycles.

  11. Estimated clinical benefit of protecting neurogenesis in the developing brain during radiation therapy for pediatric medulloblastoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomstrand, M.; Berthelsen, Anne Kiil; Munck af Rosenschöld, Per Martin

    2012-01-01

    to the whole-brain irradiation that is part of standard management. Neurogenesis is very sensitive to radiation, and limiting the radiation dose to the hippocampus and the subventricular zone (SVZ) may preserve neurocognitive function. Radiotherapy plans were created using 4 techniques: standard opposing......We sought to assess the feasibility and estimate the benefit of sparing the neurogenic niches when irradiating the brain of pediatric patients with medulloblastoma (MB) based on clinical outcome data. Pediatric MB survivors experience a high risk of neurocognitive adverse effects, often attributed...

  12. Prediction Model for Object Oriented Software Development Effort Estimation Using One Hidden Layer Feed Forward Neural Network with Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandra Shekhar Yadav

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The budget computation for software development is affected by the prediction of software development effort and schedule. Software development effort and schedule can be predicted precisely on the basis of past software project data sets. In this paper, a model for object-oriented software development effort estimation using one hidden layer feed forward neural network (OHFNN has been developed. The model has been further optimized with the help of genetic algorithm by taking weight vector obtained from OHFNN as initial population for the genetic algorithm. Convergence has been obtained by minimizing the sum of squared errors of each input vector and optimal weight vector has been determined to predict the software development effort. The model has been empirically validated on the PROMISE software engineering repository dataset. Performance of the model is more accurate than the well-established constructive cost model (COCOMO.

  13. A guide to developing resource selection functions from telemetry data using generalized estimating equations and generalized linear mixed models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Koper

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Resource selection functions (RSF are often developed using satellite (ARGOS or Global Positioning System (GPS telemetry datasets, which provide a large amount of highly correlated data. We discuss and compare the use of generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM and generalized estimating equations (GEE for using this type of data to develop RSFs. GLMMs directly model differences among caribou, while GEEs depend on an adjustment of the standard error to compensate for correlation of data points within individuals. Empirical standard errors, rather than model-based standard errors, must be used with either GLMMs or GEEs when developing RSFs. There are several important differences between these approaches; in particular, GLMMs are best for producing parameter estimates that predict how management might influence individuals, while GEEs are best for predicting how management might influence populations. As the interpretation, value, and statistical significance of both types of parameter estimates differ, it is important that users select the appropriate analytical method. We also outline the use of k-fold cross validation to assess fit of these models. Both GLMMs and GEEs hold promise for developing RSFs as long as they are used appropriately.

  14. Development of Allometric Equations for Estimating Above-Ground Liana Biomass in Tropical Primary and Secondary Forests, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Addo-Fordjour

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The study developed allometric equations for estimating liana stem and total above-ground biomass in primary and secondary forests in the Penang National Park, Penang, Malaysia. Using biomass-diameter-length data of 60 liana individuals representing 15 species, allometric equations were developed for liana stem biomass and total above-ground biomass (TAGB. Three types of allometric equations were developed: models fitted to untransformed, weighted, and log-transformed (log10 data. There was a significant linear relationship between biomass and the predictors (diameter, length, and/or their combinations. The same set of models was developed for primary and secondary forests due to absence of differences in regression line slopes of the forests (ANCOVA: . The coefficients of determination values of the models were high (stem: 0.861 to 0.990; TAGB: 0.900 to 0.992. Generally, log-transformed models showed better fit (Furnival's index, FI 0.5. A comparison of the best TAGB model in this study (based on FI with previously published equations indicated that most of the equations significantly ( overestimated TAGB of lianas. However, a previous equation from Southeast Asia estimated TAGB similar to that of the current equation (. Therefore, regional or intracontinental equations should be preferred to intercontinental equations when estimating liana biomass.

  15. Development of Predictive Techniques for Estimating Liquid Water-Hydrate Equilibrium of Water-Hydrocarbon System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir H. Mohammadi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this communication, we review recent studies by these authors for modeling the -H equilibrium. With the aim of estimating the solubility of pure hydrocarbon hydrate former in pure water in equilibrium with gas hydrates, a thermodynamic model is introduced based on equality of water fugacity in the liquid water and hydrate phases. The solid solution theory of Van der Waals-Platteeuw is employed for calculating the fugacity of water in the hydrate phase. The Henry's law approach and the activity coefficient method are used to calculate the fugacities of the hydrocarbon hydrate former and water in the liquid water phase, respectively. The results of this model are successfully compared with some selected experimental data from the literature. A mathematical model based on feed-forward artificial neural network algorithm is then introduced to estimate the solubility of pure hydrocarbon hydrate former in pure water being in equilibrium with gas hydrates. Independent experimental data (not employed in training and testing steps are used to examine the reliability of this algorithm successfully.

  16. Development of High Spectral Resolution Technique for Registration Quasielastic Light Scattering Spectra Including Rayleigh and Brillouin Scattering as a Diagnostic Tool in Materials Characterization

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bairamov, Bakhysh

    2004-01-01

    ...: As detailed in an on-line proposal the contractor will: 1) develop and build an optical device, fitted to a Fabry-Perot interferometer, to perform high-resolution quasieleastic light scattering spectroscopy; 2...

  17. Development and validation of QDiabetes-2018 risk prediction algorithm to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes: cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-11-20

    Objectives  To derive and validate updated QDiabetes-2018 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of type 2 diabetes in men and women, taking account of potential new risk factors, and to compare their performance with current approaches. Design  Prospective open cohort study. Setting  Routinely collected data from 1457 general practices in England contributing to the QResearch database: 1094 were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 363 were used to validate the scores. Participants  11.5 million people aged 25-84 and free of diabetes at baseline: 8.87 million in the derivation cohort and 2.63 million in the validation cohort. Methods  Cox proportional hazards models were used in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QDiabetes (age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, smoking, family history of diabetes in a first degree relative, cardiovascular disease, treated hypertension, and regular use of corticosteroids) and new risk factors: atypical antipsychotics, statins, schizophrenia or bipolar affective disorder, learning disability, gestational diabetes, and polycystic ovary syndrome. Additional models included fasting blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin (HBA1c). Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status. Main outcome measure  Incident type 2 diabetes recorded on the general practice record. Results  In the derivation cohort, 178 314 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified during follow-up arising from 42.72 million person years of observation. In the validation cohort, 62 326 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified from 14.32 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met our model inclusion criteria. Model A included

  18. Variable anelastic attenuation and site effect in estimating source parameters of various major earthquakes including M w 7.8 Nepal and M w 7.5 Hindu kush earthquake by using far-field strong-motion data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Naresh; Kumar, Parveen; Chauhan, Vishal; Hazarika, Devajit

    2017-10-01

    Strong-motion records of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake ( M w 7.8), its strong aftershocks and seismic events of Hindu kush region have been analysed for estimation of source parameters. The M w 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 and its six aftershocks of magnitude range 5.3-7.3 are recorded at Multi-Parametric Geophysical Observatory, Ghuttu, Garhwal Himalaya (India) >600 km west from the epicentre of main shock of Gorkha earthquake. The acceleration data of eight earthquakes occurred in the Hindu kush region also recorded at this observatory which is located >1000 km east from the epicentre of M w 7.5 Hindu kush earthquake on 26 October 2015. The shear wave spectra of acceleration record are corrected for the possible effects of anelastic attenuation at both source and recording site as well as for site amplification. The strong-motion data of six local earthquakes are used to estimate the site amplification and the shear wave quality factor ( Q β) at recording site. The frequency-dependent Q β( f) = 124 f 0.98 is computed at Ghuttu station by using inversion technique. The corrected spectrum is compared with theoretical spectrum obtained from Brune's circular model for the horizontal components using grid search algorithm. Computed seismic moment, stress drop and source radius of the earthquakes used in this work range 8.20 × 1016-5.72 × 1020 Nm, 7.1-50.6 bars and 3.55-36.70 km, respectively. The results match with the available values obtained by other agencies.

  19. Canadian Estimate of Bird Mortality Due to Collisions and Direct Habitat Loss Associated with Wind Turbine Developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ryan. Zimmerling

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We estimated impacts on birds from the development and operation of wind turbines in Canada considering both mortality due to collisions and loss of nesting habitat. We estimated collision mortality using data from carcass searches for 43 wind farms, incorporating correction factors for scavenger removal, searcher efficiency, and carcasses that fell beyond the area searched. On average, 8.2 ± 1.4 birds (95% C.I. were killed per turbine per year at these sites, although the numbers at individual wind farms varied from 0 - 26.9 birds per turbine per year. Based on 2955 installed turbines (the number installed in Canada by December 2011, an estimated 23,300 birds (95% C.I. 20,000 - 28,300 would be killed from collisions with turbines each year. We estimated direct habitat loss based on data from 32 wind farms in Canada. On average, total habitat loss per turbine was 1.23 ha, which corresponds to an estimated total habitat loss due to wind farms nationwide of 3635 ha. Based on published estimates of nest density, this could represent habitat for ~5700 nests of all species. Assuming nearby habitats are saturated, and 2 adults displaced per nest site, effects of direct habitat loss are less than that of direct mortality. Installed wind capacity is growing rapidly, and is predicted to increase more than 10-fold over the next 10-15 years, which could lead to direct mortality of approximately 233,000 birds / year, and displacement of 57,000 pairs. Despite concerns about the impacts of biased correction factors on the accuracy of mortality estimates, these values are likely much lower than those from collisions with some other anthropogenic sources such as windows, vehicles, or towers, or habitat loss due to many other forms of development. Species composition data suggest that < 0.2% of the population of any species is currently affected by mortality or displacement from wind turbine development. Therefore, population level impacts are unlikely

  20. Development of a low cost method to estimate the seismic signature of a geothermal field form ambient noise analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tibuleac, Ileana [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States)

    2016-06-30

    A new, cost effective and non-invasive exploration method using ambient seismic noise has been tested at Soda Lake, NV, with promising results. The material included in this report demonstrates that, with the advantage of initial S-velocity models estimated from ambient noise surface waves, the seismic reflection survey, although with lower resolution, reproduces the results of the active survey when the ambient seismic noise is not contaminated by strong cultural noise. Ambient noise resolution is less at depth (below 1000m) compared to the active survey. In general, the results are promising and useful information can be recovered from ambient seismic noise, including dipping features and fault locations.

  1. Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate survival in patients with colorectal cancer: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate absolute and conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer. \\ud \\ud Design: Cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database linked to the national cancer registry.\\ud \\ud Participants: 44 145 patients aged 15-99 with colorectal cancer from 947 practices to derive the equations. The equations were validated in 15 214 patients with colorectal cancer ...

  2. DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC METHOD FOR THE SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION OF SALBUTAMOL SULPHATE AND CETIRIZINE HYDROCHLORIDE IN COMBINED DOSAGE FORM

    OpenAIRE

    Sharma Deepak; Singh Gurmeet; Singh Mankaran; Kumar Dinesh; Rathore Mahendra Singh

    2012-01-01

    Salbutamol Sulphate (SAL) and Cetirizine HCl (CET) is used for the treatment of asthma and allergy. A simple, economical, accurate and precise method for simultaneous estimation of Salbutamol Sulphate (SAL) and Cetirizine HCl (CET) in combined dosage form has been developed. Simultaneous equation method based on measurement of absorbance at two wavelengths 276 nm and 230 nm, λmax of Salbutamol Sulphate (SAL) and Cetirizine HCl (CET) in 6.8 pH phosphate buffer. Both these drugs obeyed Beer La...

  3. Development and validation of QDiabetes-2018 risk prediction algorithm to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To derive and validate updated QDiabetes-2018 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of type 2 diabetes in men and women, taking account of potential new risk factors, and to compare their performance with current approaches.\\ud \\ud Design: Prospective open cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: Routinely collected data from 1457 general practices in England contributing to the QResearch database: 1094 were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 363 were used to valid...

  4. Batteries on the Battlefield: Developing a Methodology to Estimate the Fully Burdened Cost of Batteries in the Department of Defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    Eagle - Picher Technologies to deliver the BA-5590 and Ultralife to deliver the BA-5390, a longer lasting BA-5590 substitute. The DoD also made a $5...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS BATTERIES ON THE BATTLEFIELD: DEVELOPING A METHODOLOGY TO ESTIMATE THE FULLY...BURDENED COST OF BATTERIES IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE by Troy O. Kiper Anthony E. Hughley Mark R. McClellan June 2010 Thesis Advisors

  5. Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with flexible error structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Shiftan, Yoram; Bekhor, Shlomo

    2009-01-01

    that alleviates these simplifying assumptions concerning (i) the number of alternatives, (ii) the representation of choice set formation, and (iii) the error structure. The proposed semi-compensatory model represents a sequence of choice set formation based on the conjunctive heuristic with correlated thresholds......, and utility-based choice accommodating alternatively nested substitution patterns across the alternatives and random taste variation across the population. The proposed model is applied to off-campus rental apartment choice of students. Results show (i) the estimated model for a universal realm of 200...... alternatives and 41 choice sets, (ii) the threshold representation as a function of individual characteristics, and (iii) the feasibility and importance of introducing a flexible error structure into semi-compensatory models....

  6. Including Youth with Intellectual Disabilities in Health Promotion Research: Development and Reliability of a Structured Interview to Assess the Correlates of Physical Activity among Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtin, Carol; Bandini, Linda G.; Must, Aviva; Phillips, Sarah; Maslin, Melissa C. T.; Lo, Charmaine; Gleason, James M.; Fleming, Richard K.; Stanish, Heidi I.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The input of youth with intellectual disabilities in health promotion and health disparities research is essential for understanding their needs and preferences. Regular physical activity (PA) is vital for health and well-being, but levels are low in youth generally, including those with intellectual disabilities. Understanding the…

  7. Development of Embedded EM Sensors for Estimating Tensile Forces of PSC Girder Bridges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Junkyeong; Kim, Ju-Won; Lee, Chaggil; Park, Seunghee

    2017-08-30

    The tensile force of pre-stressed concrete (PSC) girders is the most important factor for managing the stability of PSC bridges. The tensile force is induced using pre-stressing (PS) tendons of a PSC girder. Because the PS tendons are located inside of the PSC girder, the tensile force cannot be measured after construction using conventional NDT (non-destructive testing) methods. To monitor the induced tensile force of a PSC girder, an embedded EM (elasto-magnetic) sensor was proposed in this study. The PS tendons are made of carbon steel, a ferromagnetic material. The magnetic properties of the ferromagnetic specimen are changed according to the induced magnetic field, temperature, and induced stress. Thus, the tensile force of PS tendons can be estimated by measuring their magnetic properties. The EM sensor can measure the magnetic properties of ferromagnetic materials in the form of a B (magnetic density)-H (magnetic force) loop. To measure the B-H loop of a PS tendon in a PSC girder, the EM sensor should be embedded into the PSC girder. The proposed embedded EM sensor can be embedded into a PSC girder as a sheath joint by designing screw threads to connect with the sheath. To confirm the proposed embedded EM sensors, the experimental study was performed using a down-scaled PSC girder model. Two specimens were constructed with embedded EM sensors, and three sensors were installed in each specimen. The embedded EM sensor could measure the B-H loop of PS tendons even if it was located inside concrete, and the area of the B-H loop was proportionally decreased according to the increase in tensile force. According to the results, the proposed method can be used to estimate the tensile force of unrevealed PS tendons.

  8. Development of Embedded EM Sensors for Estimating Tensile Forces of PSC Girder Bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ju-Won; Lee, Chaggil; Park, Seunghee

    2017-01-01

    The tensile force of pre-stressed concrete (PSC) girders is the most important factor for managing the stability of PSC bridges. The tensile force is induced using pre-stressing (PS) tendons of a PSC girder. Because the PS tendons are located inside of the PSC girder, the tensile force cannot be measured after construction using conventional NDT (non-destructive testing) methods. To monitor the induced tensile force of a PSC girder, an embedded EM (elasto-magnetic) sensor was proposed in this study. The PS tendons are made of carbon steel, a ferromagnetic material. The magnetic properties of the ferromagnetic specimen are changed according to the induced magnetic field, temperature, and induced stress. Thus, the tensile force of PS tendons can be estimated by measuring their magnetic properties. The EM sensor can measure the magnetic properties of ferromagnetic materials in the form of a B (magnetic density)-H (magnetic force) loop. To measure the B-H loop of a PS tendon in a PSC girder, the EM sensor should be embedded into the PSC girder. The proposed embedded EM sensor can be embedded into a PSC girder as a sheath joint by designing screw threads to connect with the sheath. To confirm the proposed embedded EM sensors, the experimental study was performed using a down-scaled PSC girder model. Two specimens were constructed with embedded EM sensors, and three sensors were installed in each specimen. The embedded EM sensor could measure the B-H loop of PS tendons even if it was located inside concrete, and the area of the B-H loop was proportionally decreased according to the increase in tensile force. According to the results, the proposed method can be used to estimate the tensile force of unrevealed PS tendons. PMID:28867790

  9. Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

    2011-05-01

    Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

  10. Technical note: Development of Hemipyrellia ligurriens (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) at constant temperatures: Applications in estimating postmortem interval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yong-qiang; Lyu, Zhou; Li, Xue-bo; Li, Kui; Yao, Lan; Wan, Li-hua

    2015-08-01

    Blowflies (Calliphoridae) are recognized as a powerful tool for estimating the minimum postmortem interval (PMImin). The times for blowflies to develop from oviposition to eclosion is mainly controlled by temperature, which can differ between even closely related species. Hemipyrellia ligurriens (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) is a blowfly distributed throughout Asia and Australia. However, a systematic determination of the developmental times of H. ligurriens under constant temperature, necessary for estimating the PMImin, is lacking. Such an examination would broaden the forensic importance of the species. Thus, this study explored the growth curves of larval H. ligurriens at 7 constant temperatures (16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, and 34°C). Isomegalen and isomorphen diagrams were successfully constructed, depicting the time of larval length or developmental event, respectively, at different temperatures. A thermal summation model was also constructed via regression analysis, by estimating the developmental threshold temperature t and thermal summation constant K. The thermal summation model indicated that t at 8.3°C and K at 5747.5 degree-hours (°Ch) are required for complete development from oviposition to eclosion, and suggested an optimum temperature range of 16-28°C for the development of H. ligurriens. These data establish for the first time the temperature-dependent developmental time of H. ligurriens for forensic entomology application. The 3 developmental models are provided. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. An International Comparison of Tax Assistance for Research and Development: Estimates and Policy Implication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Lester

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Business spending on research and development (R&D is generally recognized as a private activity providing broader economic benefits that justify government support. But subsidizing R&D has costs as well as benefits, and governments need to exercise judgement to ensure that subsidies are set at a level that results in a net economic benefit for society as a whole, not just for the recipients of the assistance. A key finding of the international comparison undertaken in this paper is that Canada and nine other of the 36 countries in the comparison group are providing R&D subsidies that are likely too high to generate a net economic benefit. Subsidy rates in this group of countries range from 25 to 45 per cent. The risk of excessive subsidization is confined to small firms in Canada, which receive a subsidy of almost 41 per cent through the tax system. Canada’s subsidy rate for small firms is the third highest, behind Chile and France. Other countries providing subsidy rates close to 40 per cent are Spain and India. This paper also assesses several design features of tax assistance measures, including enhanced benefits for small and young firms, refundability of benefits and incentives based on increases in R&D spending above a base level. While the best policy for R&D subsidies may be a uniform rate for all businesses regardless of age or size, the case for favouring young firms is somewhat stronger than for favouring all small firms. Focusing on young firms avoids providing benefits to small firms that are not growth-oriented; but, it is difficult to design a program that can be completely restricted to young firms since entrepreneurs would have an incentive to create new firms to avoid losing higher benefits. Even with this “leakage”, however, an age-dependent incentive could be more cost-effective than size-dependent enhanced benefits. There is a particularly strong case for providing refundability to young firms, which are unlikely to

  12. DEVELOPMENT OF A PEDESTRIAN INDOOR NAVIGATION SYSTEM BASED ON MULTI-SENSOR FUSION AND FUZZY LOGIC ESTIMATION ALGORITHMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. C. Lai

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a pedestrian indoor navigation system based on the multi-sensor fusion and fuzzy logic estimation algorithms. The proposed navigation system is a self-contained dead reckoning navigation that means no other outside signal is demanded. In order to achieve the self-contained capability, a portable and wearable inertial measure unit (IMU has been developed. Its adopted sensors are the low-cost inertial sensors, accelerometer and gyroscope, based on the micro electro-mechanical system (MEMS. There are two types of the IMU modules, handheld and waist-mounted. The low-cost MEMS sensors suffer from various errors due to the results of manufacturing imperfections and other effects. Therefore, a sensor calibration procedure based on the scalar calibration and the least squares methods has been induced in this study to improve the accuracy of the inertial sensors. With the calibrated data acquired from the inertial sensors, the step length and strength of the pedestrian are estimated by multi-sensor fusion and fuzzy logic estimation algorithms. The developed multi-sensor fusion algorithm provides the amount of the walking steps and the strength of each steps in real-time. Consequently, the estimated walking amount and strength per step are taken into the proposed fuzzy logic estimation algorithm to estimates the step lengths of the user. Since the walking length and direction are both the required information of the dead reckoning navigation, the walking direction is calculated by integrating the angular rate acquired by the gyroscope of the developed IMU module. Both the walking length and direction are calculated on the IMU module and transmit to a smartphone with Bluetooth to perform the dead reckoning navigation which is run on a self-developed APP. Due to the error accumulating of dead reckoning navigation, a particle filter and a pre-loaded map of indoor environment have been applied to the APP of the proposed navigation system

  13. Development of a Pedestrian Indoor Navigation System Based on Multi-Sensor Fusion and Fuzzy Logic Estimation Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Y. C.; Chang, C. C.; Tsai, C. M.; Lin, S. Y.; Huang, S. C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper presents a pedestrian indoor navigation system based on the multi-sensor fusion and fuzzy logic estimation algorithms. The proposed navigation system is a self-contained dead reckoning navigation that means no other outside signal is demanded. In order to achieve the self-contained capability, a portable and wearable inertial measure unit (IMU) has been developed. Its adopted sensors are the low-cost inertial sensors, accelerometer and gyroscope, based on the micro electro-mechanical system (MEMS). There are two types of the IMU modules, handheld and waist-mounted. The low-cost MEMS sensors suffer from various errors due to the results of manufacturing imperfections and other effects. Therefore, a sensor calibration procedure based on the scalar calibration and the least squares methods has been induced in this study to improve the accuracy of the inertial sensors. With the calibrated data acquired from the inertial sensors, the step length and strength of the pedestrian are estimated by multi-sensor fusion and fuzzy logic estimation algorithms. The developed multi-sensor fusion algorithm provides the amount of the walking steps and the strength of each steps in real-time. Consequently, the estimated walking amount and strength per step are taken into the proposed fuzzy logic estimation algorithm to estimates the step lengths of the user. Since the walking length and direction are both the required information of the dead reckoning navigation, the walking direction is calculated by integrating the angular rate acquired by the gyroscope of the developed IMU module. Both the walking length and direction are calculated on the IMU module and transmit to a smartphone with Bluetooth to perform the dead reckoning navigation which is run on a self-developed APP. Due to the error accumulating of dead reckoning navigation, a particle filter and a pre-loaded map of indoor environment have been applied to the APP of the proposed navigation system to extend its

  14. Developing tolled-route demand estimation capabilities for Texas : opportunities for enhancement of existing models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    The travel demand models developed and applied by the Transportation Planning and Programming Division : (TPP) of the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) are daily three-step models (i.e., trip generation, trip : distribution, and traffic assi...

  15. Development of Instrumentation for Direct Validation of Regional Carbon Flux Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We are pursuing three tasks under internal research and development: 1) procure a state-of-the-art, commercial instrument for measuring atmospheric methane (CH4) in...

  16. Development of best estimate auditing code for CANDU thermal hydraulic safety analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, B. D.; Lee, W. J.; Lim, H. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-03-15

    The main purpose of this study is to develop a thermal hydraulic auditing code for the CANDU reactor, modifying the model if existing PWR auditing tool, i.e. RELAP5/MOD3. This scope of project is a third step of the whole project, and expand the RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU version for implementation of LOCA analysis. There are three main area of model development, i.e. moody critical flow model, flow regime model of horizontal CANDU bundle, and fuel element heatup model when the stratification occurs. Newly developed version, namely RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU+ is applicable to CANDU plant analysis with keeping the function of light water reactor analysis. The limited validations of model installation were performed. Assessment of CHF model using AECL separated effect test and calculation for Wolsong 2 plant were performed also for the applicability test of the developed version.

  17. Development of a best estimate auditing code for CANDU thermal hydraulic safety analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, B.D.; Lee, W.J.; Lim, H.S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-03-01

    The main purpose of this study is to develop a thermal hydraulic auditing code for the CANDU reactor, modifying the model of existing PWR auditing tool , i.e. RELAP5/MOD3. This scope of project is a third step of the whole project, and expand the RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU version for implementation of LOCA Analysis. There are three main area of model development, i.e. Moody critical flow model, flow regime model of horizontal CANDU bundle, and fuel element heatup model when the stratification occurs. Newly developed version, namely RELAP5/MOD3/CANDU+ is applicable to CANDU plant analysis with keeping the function of light water reactor analysis. The limited validations of model installation were performed. Assessment of CHF model using AECL separated effect test and calculation for Wolsong 2 plant were performed also for the applicability test of the developed version. 15 refs., 37 figs., 8 tabs. (Author)

  18. Development of new method and protocol for cryopreservation related to embryo and oocytes freezing in terms of fertilization rate: A comparative study including review of literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayadhar Barik

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: We ensure that cryopreservation technology provided useful cell survivability, tissue and organ preservation in a proper way. Although it varies according to different laboratory conditions, it is certainly beneficial for patient′s treatment and research. Further studies are needed for standardization and development of new protocol.

  19. Computed statistics at streamgages, and methods for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and development of regional regression equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southard, Rodney E.

    2013-01-01

    located in Region 1, 120 were located in Region 2, and 10 were located in Region 3. Streamgages located outside of Missouri were selected to extend the range of data used for the independent variables in the regression analyses. Streamgages included in the regression analyses had 10 or more years of record and were considered to be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities or trends. Regional regression analyses identified three characteristics as statistically significant for the development of regional equations. For Region 1, drainage area, longest flow path, and streamflow-variability index were statistically significant. The range in the standard error of estimate for Region 1 is 79.6 to 94.2 percent. For Region 2, drainage area and streamflow variability index were statistically significant, and the range in the standard error of estimate is 48.2 to 72.1 percent. For Region 3, drainage area and streamflow-variability index also were statistically significant with a range in the standard error of estimate of 48.1 to 96.2 percent. Limitations on the use of estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations are dependent on the method used. The first method outlined for use in Missouri, power curve equations, were developed to estimate the selected statistics for ungaged locations on 28 selected streams with multiple streamgages located on the same stream. A second method uses a drainage-area ratio to compute statistics at an ungaged location using data from a single streamgage on the same stream with 10 or more years of record. Ungaged locations on these streams may use the ratio of the drainage area at an ungaged location to the drainage area at a streamgage location to scale the selected statistic value from the streamgage location to the ungaged location. This method can be used if the drainage area of the ungaged location is within 40 to 150 percent of the streamgage drainage area. The third method is the use of the regional regression equations

  20. Development and validation of QMortality risk prediction algorithm to estimate short term risk of death and assess frailty: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objectives:\\ud To derive and validate a risk prediction equation to estimate the short term risk of death, and to develop a classification method for frailty based on risk of death and risk of unplanned hospital admission.\\ud \\ud Design:\\ud Prospective open cohort study.\\ud \\ud Participants: \\ud Routinely collected data from 1436 general practices contributing data to QResearch in England between 2012 and 2016. 1079 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 357 practices...

  1. Using the Estimating Supplies Program to Develop Materiel Solutions for the U.S. Air Force Aeromedical Evacuation In-Flight Kit (FFQDM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hopkins, Curtis; Nix, Ralph; Pang, Gerry; Konoske, Paula

    2008-01-01

    ... NHRC's medical modeling tool the Estimating Supplies Program (ESP) for the development and management of Air Force medical Allowance Standards as a baseline for standardization throughout the services...

  2. Development of a 2-h suicide prevention program for medical staff including nurses and medical residents: A two-center pilot trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagami, Yukako; Kubo, Hiroaki; Katsuki, Ryoko; Sakai, Tomomichi; Sugihara, Genichi; Naito, Chisako; Oda, Hiroyuki; Hayakawa, Kohei; Suzuki, Yuriko; Fujisawa, Daisuke; Hashimoto, Naoki; Kobara, Keiji; Cho, Tetsuji; Kuga, Hironori; Takao, Kiyoshi; Kawahara, Yoko; Matsumura, Yumi; Murai, Toshiya; Akashi, Koichi; Kanba, Shigenobu; Otsuka, Kotaro; Kato, Takahiro A

    2018-01-01

    Suicide is a crucial global health concern and effective suicide prevention has long been warranted. Mental illness, especially depression is the highest risk factor of suicide. Suicidal risk is increased in people not only with mental illness but also with physical illnesses, thus medical staff caring for physically-ill patients are also required to manage people with suicidal risk. In the present study, we evaluated our newly developed suicide intervention program among medical staff. We developed a 2-h suicide intervention program for medical staff, based on the Mental Health First Aid (MHFA), which had originally been developed for the general population. We conducted this program for 74 medical staff members from 2 hospitals. Changes in knowledge, perceived skills, and confidence in early intervention of depression and suicide-prevention were evaluated using self-reported questionnaires at 3 points; pre-program, immediately after the program, and 1 month after program. This suicide prevention program had significant effects on improving perceived skills and confidence especially among nurses and medical residents. These significant effects lasted even 1 month after the program. Design was a single-arm study with relatively small sample size and short-term follow up. The present study suggests that the major target of this effective program is nurses and medical residents. Future research is required to validate the effects of the program with control groups, and also to assess long-term effectiveness and actual reduction in suicide rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. 77 FR 14716 - Notice of Availability: Draft Documents Related to the Development of Emissions Estimating...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-13

    ..., Tyson Foods, Inc. collected data from two broiler sites, which are also included in the NAEMS dataset... ), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). For lagoons and basins, the study was designed to collect NH 3... draft documents describe the sites monitored, the statistical methodology used to analyze the data, and...

  4. Theoretical justification of indicators system to estimate the regional stability level considering its development peculiarities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Granovska Lyudmyla Mykolayivna

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with theoretical analysis of the indicators system concept, observes in details such components of this system as society, nature, economy. The general indicators of social, ecological, and economic system development are considered. It has been found that indicators are the indexes system of ecological, economical, and social development and give the possibility to analyze and control the implementation of areas sustainable development statement. The system of indicators, which characterize the level of the region stability on the basis of domestic and foreign experience considering region peculiarities, has been improved. At that, the regional peculiarities of both the natural and resource potential and the economical activity impact on the natural and resource potential have been taken into account.

  5. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (Page and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Development of pollution reduction strategies for Mexico City: Estimating cost and ozone reduction effectiveness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thayer, G.R.; Hardie, R.W. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Barrera-Roldan, A. [Instituto Mexicano de Petroleo, Mexico City (Mexico)

    1993-12-31

    This reports on the collection and preparation of data (costs and air quality improvement) for the strategic evaluation portion of the Mexico City Air Quality Research Initiative (MARI). Reports written for the Mexico City government by various international organizations were used to identify proposed options along with estimates of cost and emission reductions. Information from appropriate options identified by SCAQMD for Southem California were also used in the analysis. A linear optimization method was used to select a group of options or a strategy to be evaluated by decision analysis. However, the reduction of ozone levels is not a linear function of the reduction of hydrocarbon and NO{sub x} emissions. Therefore, a more detailed analysis was required for ozone. An equation for a plane on an isopleth calculated with a trajectory model was obtained using two endpoints that bracket the expected total ozone precursor reductions plus the starting concentrations for hydrocarbons and NO{sub x}. The relationship between ozone levels and the hydrocarbon and NO{sub x} concentrations was assumed to lie on this plane. This relationship was used in the linear optimization program to select the options comprising a strategy.

  7. Development of pollution reduction strategies for Mexico City: Estimating cost and ozone reduction effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thayer, G.R.; Hardie, R.W.; Barrera-Roldan, A.

    1993-01-01

    This reports on the collection and preparation of data (costs and air quality improvement) for the strategic evaluation portion of the Mexico City Air Quality Research Initiative (MARI). Reports written for the Mexico City government by various international organizations were used to identify proposed options along with estimates of cost and emission reductions. Information from appropriate options identified by SCAQMD for Southem California were also used in the analysis. A linear optimization method was used to select a group of options or a strategy to be evaluated by decision analysis. However, the reduction of ozone levels is not a linear function of the reduction of hydrocarbon and NO x emissions. Therefore, a more detailed analysis was required for ozone. An equation for a plane on an isopleth calculated with a trajectory model was obtained using two endpoints that bracket the expected total ozone precursor reductions plus the starting concentrations for hydrocarbons and NO x . The relationship between ozone levels and the hydrocarbon and NO x concentrations was assumed to lie on this plane. This relationship was used in the linear optimization program to select the options comprising a strategy

  8. ANALYTICAL METHOD DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION FOR SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION OF SIMVASTATIN AND SITAGLIPTIN

    OpenAIRE

    Yaddanapudi Mrudula Devi; R. Karthikeyan; Punttaguntla Sreenivasa Babu

    2013-01-01

    A simple, specific, accurate, rapid, inexpensive isocratic Reversed Phase-High Performance Liquid Chromatography (RP-HPLC) method was developed and validated for the quantitative determination of Simvastatin and Sitagliptin pharmaceutical tablet dosage forms. RP-HPLC method was developed by using Inertsil ODS-3 C 18 (75 mm*4.6 mm) 5 microns Short column, Shimadzu LC-20AT Prominence Liquid Chromatograph. The mobile phase composed of 0.05 M Ammonium acetate: CAN 60:40. The flow rate was set to ...

  9. Fire Hydrants, Fire hydrants outside the City of Wichita. Primary attributes include hydrant number and ID. Layer is under development by Sedgwick County Fire Department. Primary attributes include GPS status, feature-mapped-to, hydrants ID, address, situs city, mai, Published in 2008, 1:1200 (1in=100ft) scale, Sedgwick County Government.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Fire Hydrants dataset current as of 2008. Fire hydrants outside the City of Wichita. Primary attributes include hydrant number and ID. Layer is under development by...

  10. Estimating the proportion of persons with diabetes developing diabetic retinopathy in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A T Jotheeswaran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Available evidence from India shows that the control of diabetes is poor in majority of the population. This escalates the risk of complications. There is no systematic review to estimate the magnitude of diabetic retinopathy (DR in India. Materials and Methods: A systematic literature search was carried out in Ovid Medline and EMBASE databases using Mesh and key search terms. Studies which reported the proportion of people with diabetes with DR in a representative community population were included. Two independent reviewers reviewed all the retrieved publications. Data were extracted using a predefined form. Review Manager software was used to perform meta-analysis to provide a pooled estimate. Studies included were assessed for methodological quality using selected items from the STROBE checklist. Results: Seven studies (1999–2014; n = 8315 persons with diabetes were included in the review. In the meta-analysis, 14.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.7–19.0% of known diabetics aged ≥30 years and 18.1% (95% CI 14.8–21.4 among those aged ≥50 years had DR. Heterogeneity around this estimate ranged from I2= 79–87%. No linear trend was observed between age and the proportion with DR. The overall methodological quality of included studies was moderate. Conclusions: Early detection of DR is currently not prioritized in public health policies for noncommunicable diseases and blindness programs. Methodological issues in studies suggest that the proportion of diabetics with DR is underestimated in the Indian population. Future research should emphasize more robust methodology for assessing diabetes and DR status.

  11. Development and analytical validation of a 25-gene next generation sequencing panel that includes the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes to assess hereditary cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judkins, Thaddeus; Leclair, Benoît; Bowles, Karla; Gutin, Natalia; Trost, Jeff; McCulloch, James; Bhatnagar, Satish; Murray, Adam; Craft, Jonathan; Wardell, Bryan; Bastian, Mark; Mitchell, Jeffrey; Chen, Jian; Tran, Thanh; Williams, Deborah; Potter, Jennifer; Jammulapati, Srikanth; Perry, Michael; Morris, Brian; Roa, Benjamin; Timms, Kirsten

    2015-04-02

    Germline DNA mutations that increase the susceptibility of a patient to certain cancers have been identified in various genes, and patients can be screened for mutations in these genes to assess their level of risk for developing cancer. Traditional methods using Sanger sequencing focus on small groups of genes and therefore are unable to screen for numerous genes from several patients simultaneously. The goal of the present study was to validate a 25-gene panel to assess genetic risk for cancer in 8 different tissues using next generation sequencing (NGS) techniques. Twenty-five genes associated with hereditary cancer syndromes were selected for development of a panel to screen for risk of these cancers using NGS. In an initial technical assessment, NGS results for BRCA1 and BRCA2 were compared with Sanger sequencing in 1864 anonymized DNA samples from patients who had undergone previous clinical testing. Next, the entire gene panel was validated using parallel NGS and Sanger sequencing in 100 anonymized DNA samples. Large rearrangement analysis was validated using NGS, microarray comparative genomic hybridization (CGH), and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification analyses (MLPA). NGS identified 15,877 sequence variants, while Sanger sequencing identified 15,878 in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 comparison study of the same regions. Based on these results, the NGS process was refined prior to the validation of the full gene panel. In the validation study, NGS and Sanger sequencing were 100% concordant for the 3,923 collective variants across all genes for an analytical sensitivity of the NGS assay of >99.92% (lower limit of 95% confidence interval). NGS, microarray CGH and MLPA correctly identified all expected positive and negative large rearrangement results for the 25-gene panel. This study provides a thorough validation of the 25-gene NGS panel and indicates that this analysis tool can be used to collect clinically significant information related to risk of

  12. YouTube Fridays: Student Led Development of Engineering Estimate Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberatore, Matthew W.; Vestal, Charles R.; Herring, Andrew M.

    2012-01-01

    YouTube Fridays devotes a small fraction of class time to student-selected videos related to the course topic, e.g., thermodynamics. The students then write and solve a homework-like problem based on the events in the video. Three recent pilots involving over 300 students have developed a database of videos and questions that reinforce important…

  13. Development and Evaluation of an ADME-informed High Throughput Exposure Estimation Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Chemical Safety for Sustainability (CSS) research program has been developing new ways to prioritize chemicals used in consumer products and articles. Using a risk-based methodology to account for both toxicity and exposure offers a comprehensive and systematic approa...

  14. Longitudinal development of number line estimation and mathematics performance in primary school children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friso-van den Bos, I.; Kroesbergen, E.H.; van Luit, J.E.H.; Xenidou-Dervou, I.; Jonkman, L.M.; van der Schoot, M.; van Lieshout, E.C.D.M.

    2015-01-01

    Children's ability to relate number to a continuous quantity abstraction visualized as a number line is widely accepted to be predictive of mathematics achievement. However, a debate has emerged with respect to how children's placements are distributed on this number line across development. In the

  15. Longitudinal development of number line estimation and mathematics performance in primary school children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friso - van den Bos, Ilona; Kroesbergen, Evelyn; van Luit, Hans; Xenidou-Dervou, Iro; Jonkman, Lisa M.; Van der Schoot, Menno; Van Lieshout, Ernest C. D. M.

    2015-01-01

    Children’s ability to relate number to a continuous quantity abstraction visualized as a number line is widely accepted to be predictive of mathematics achievement. However, a debate has emerged with respect to how children’s placements are distributed on this number line across development. In the

  16. STATISTICAL ESTIMATION ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT IN THE MODEL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: HISTORICAL ASPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zatulyviter

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies historical aspect in the selection of the environmental component of sustainable economic development. Theories and concepts that combine economy and environment with limited resources have been considered. The basic idea of forming views about environmental factors in economic theory has been described.

  17. Developing estimates of potential demand for renewable wood energy products in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen M. Brackley; Valerie A. Barber; Cassie Pinkel

    2010-01-01

    Goal three of the current U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service strategy for improving the use of woody biomass is to help develop and expand markets for woody biomass products. This report is concerned with the existing volumes of renewable wood energy products (RWEP) that are currently used in Alaska and the potential demand for RWEP for residential and...

  18. Development of analytical method used for the estimation of potassium amide in liquid ammonia at HWP (Tuticorin)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramanathan, A.V.

    2007-01-01

    Potassium amide in liquid ammonia is used as a homogeneous catalyst in mono-thermal ammonia-hydrogen isotopic chemical exchange process employed for the manufacture of heavy water. Estimation of concentration of potassium amide in liquid ammonia is vital for checking whether it is sufficient for catalysis in isotopic exchange towers or for purification in purifiers in the Heavy Water Plants. This estimation was carried out earlier by the conventional method involving evaporation of ammonia, decomposition of potassium amide with water and titration of liberated ammonia with sulphuric acid. This method has been replaced by a newly developed method involving direct titration of potassium amide in ammonia with ammonium bromide. This new method is based on the principle that ammonium bromide and potassium amide act as acid and base respectively in the non-aqueous solvent medium, liquid ammonia. This method has not only proved to be an alternative method of estimation of potassium amide in liquid ammonia but also has been serving as a developed analytical method, because it is faster (with fewer steps), more accurate, safer (as it excludes the use of corrosive sulphuric acid needed for the conventional method) and more convenient (as it doesn't need specially designed apparatus and inert gas like dry nitrogen used in the conventional method). (author)

  19. Planned development and evaluation protocol of two versions of a web-based computer-tailored nutrition education intervention aimed at adults, including cognitive and environmental feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springvloet, Linda; Lechner, Lilian; Oenema, Anke

    2014-01-17

    Despite decades of nutrition education, the prevalence of unhealthy dietary patterns is still high and inequalities in intake between high and low socioeconomic groups still exist. Therefore, it is important to innovate and improve existing nutrition education interventions. This paper describes the development, design and evaluation protocol of a web-based computer-tailored nutrition education intervention for adults targeting fruit, vegetable, high-energy snack and fat intake. This intervention innovates existing computer-tailored interventions by not only targeting motivational factors, but also volitional and self-regulation processes and environmental-level factors. The intervention development was guided by the Intervention Mapping protocol, ensuring a theory-informed and evidence-based intervention. Two versions of the intervention were developed: a basic version targeting knowledge, awareness, attitude, self-efficacy and volitional and self-regulation processes, and a plus version additionally addressing the home environment arrangement and the availability and price of healthy food products in supermarkets. Both versions consist of four modules: one for each dietary behavior, i.e. fruit, vegetables, high-energy snacks and fat. Based on the self-regulation phases, each module is divided into three sessions. In the first session, feedback on dietary behavior is provided to increase awareness, feedback on attitude and self-efficacy is provided and goals and action plans are stated. In the second session goal achievement is evaluated, reasons for failure are explored, coping plans are stated and goals can be adapted. In the third session, participants can again evaluate their behavioral change and tips for maintenance are provided. Both versions will be evaluated in a three-group randomized controlled trial with measurements at baseline, 1-month, 4-months and 9-months post-intervention, using online questionnaires. Both versions will be compared with a generic

  20. Let’s Take it to the Clouds: The Potential of Educational Innovations, Including Blended Learning, for Capacity Building in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Marrinan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In modern decentralised health systems, district and local managers are increasingly responsible for financing, managing, and delivering healthcare. However, their lack of adequate skills and competencies are a critical barrier to improved performance of health systems. Given the financial and human resource, constraints of relying on traditional face-to-face training to upskill a large and dispersed number of health managers, governments, and donors must look to exploit advances in the education sector. In recent years, education providers around the world have been experimenting with blended learning; that is, amalgamating traditional face-to-face education with web-based learning to reduce costs and enrol larger numbers of students. Access to improved information and communication technology (ICT has been the major catalyst for such pedagogical innovations. We argue that with many developing countries already improving their ICT systems, the question is not whether but how to employ technology to facilitate the continuous professional development of district and local health managers in decentralised settings.

  1. Development and Assessment of CFD Models Including a Supplemental Program Code for Analyzing Buoyancy-Driven Flows Through BWR Fuel Assemblies in SFP Complete LOCA Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artnak, Edward Joseph, III

    This work seeks to illustrate the potential benefits afforded by implementing aspects of fluid dynamics, especially the latest computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling approach, through numerical experimentation and the traditional discipline of physical experimentation to improve the calibration of the severe reactor accident analysis code, MELCOR, in one of several spent fuel pool (SFP) complete loss-ofcoolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. While the scope of experimental work performed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) extends well beyond that which is reasonably addressed by our allotted resources and computational time in accordance with initial project allocations to complete the report, these simulated case trials produced a significant array of supplementary high-fidelity solutions and hydraulic flow-field data in support of SNL research objectives. Results contained herein show FLUENT CFD model representations of a 9x9 BWR fuel assembly in conditions corresponding to a complete loss-of-coolant accident scenario. In addition to the CFD model developments, a MATLAB based controlvolume model was constructed to independently assess the 9x9 BWR fuel assembly under similar accident scenarios. The data produced from this work show that FLUENT CFD models are capable of resolving complex flow fields within a BWR fuel assembly in the realm of buoyancy-induced mass flow rates and that characteristic hydraulic parameters from such CFD simulations (or physical experiments) are reasonably employed in corresponding constitutive correlations for developing simplified numerical models of comparable solution accuracy.

  2. The development of a mini-array for estimating the disease state of gastric adenocarcinoma by array CGH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oga Atsunori

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The treatment strategy usually depends on the disease state in the individual patient. However, it is difficult to estimate the disease state before treatment in many patients. The purpose of this study was to develop a BAC (bacterial artificial chromosome mini-array allowing for the estimation of node metastasis, liver metastasis, peritoneal dissemination and the depth of tumor invasion in gastric cancers. Methods Initially, the DNA copy number aberrations (DCNAs were analyzed by array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH in 83 gastric adenocarcinomas as a training-sample set. Next, two independent analytical methods were applied to the aCGH data to identify the BAC clones with DNA copy number aberrations that were linked with the disease states. One of the methods, a decision-tree model classifier, identified 6, 4, 4, 4, and 7 clones for estimating lymph node metastasis, liver metastasis, peritoneal dissemination, depth of tumor invasion, and histological type, respectively. In the other method, a clone-by-clone comparison of the frequency of the DNA copy number aberrations selected 26 clones to estimate the disease states. Results By spotting these 50 clones together with 26 frequently or rarely involved clones and 62 reference clones, a mini-array was made to estimate the above parameters, and the diagnostic performance of the mini-array was evaluated for an independent set of 30 gastric cancers (blinded – sample set. In comparison to the clinicopathological features, the overall accuracy was 66.7% for node metastasis, 86.7% for liver metastasis, 86.7% for peritoneal dissemination, and 96.7% for depth of tumor invasion. The intratumoral heterogeneity barely affected the diagnostic performance of the mini-array. Conclusion These results suggest that the mini-array makes it possible to determine an optimal treatment for each of the patients with gastric adenocarcinoma.

  3. The Models of Estimated Development of Labour Market in the Czech Republic up to 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondřej Nývlt

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Population ageing will considerably influence economic and social structure of the population. The labour market will change completely. The lower number of persons in productive age and the rise of proportion of older age groups will speed up ageing after 2030. The future development of labour market will face a challenge of reduction of the negative initial demographic conditions. The main problem of the labour market in the Czech Republic is the exclusion of all groups of population due to the lack of flexible jobs, mainly part-time jobs (for example students, mothers with children and elderly people. The analysis shows a possible way of measuring these reserves on the labour market. The comparison with labour indicators (mainly specific em­ployment rates by gender and age of other European countries is the aim of this approach. This offers a pos­sibility to construct the scenarios of the future development in the Czech Republic.

  4. Travel Time Estimation and Prediction using Mobile Phones: A Cost Effective Method for Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satyakumar, M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional data collection methods lack real time information and involve excessive cost of installation and maintenance. A real-time, low cost travel time data collection system can be developed using mobile phones. This project examines the use of mobile phones for travel time prediction of public transit vehicles and develops a dynamic travel time prediction model. Personnel were employed in public transit vehicles with mobile phones and these mobile phones were tracked continuously. Space information of the mobile phones represents the position of the buses and movement pattern of these mobile phones in turn represents the movement pattern of the public buses. The starting and arrival time at sections obtained from the cellular database were used to get the travel time and speed. Results obtained were statistically significant and it shows that use of mobile phone for travel time data collection is a low cost data collection technique for Indian cities.

  5. Software Development Projects: Estimation of Cost and Effort (A Manager’s Digest).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-12-01

    experi- mental data exists to corroborate these feelings. 28 4 The cost of SDE has not been closely studied as the ervircn-ments have been developed to...appear on the check. Algorithms must be consid- ered for deductions from the basic check such as life insurance and health insurance plans. 43 A...called funcional s secificaticrs [Ref. 25: p. U 1991. This document shoul be painstakingly Frepared giving to.ouqh _efinitions of the specificaticns

  6. Developing an Estimate of Supported Housing Needs for Persons with Serious Mental Illnesses

    OpenAIRE

    Waegemakers Schiff, Jeannette; Schiff, Rebecca; Schneider, Barbara

    2014-01-01

    A rich body of literature attests to the importance of affordable accommodation and support services necessary, appropriate, and acceptable to persons disabled by a mental illness. However, there is a little which provides a means for housing and service planners to determine the gap between available supportive housing and need. Such understandings are needed to prepare strategies and develop the resources needed to accommodate persons with a disabling mental illness in the community. While ...

  7. RD and D-Programme 2004. Programme for research, development and demonstration of methods for the management and disposal of nuclear waste, including social science research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-09-01

    SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co), which is owned by the companies that operate the Swedish nuclear power plants, has been assigned the task of managing and disposing of the spent nuclear fuel from the reactors. The Nuclear Activities Act requires a programme of comprehensive research and development and other measures that are needed to manage and dispose of nuclear waste in a safe manner and to decommission and dismantle the nuclear power plants. SKB is now presenting RD and D-Programme 2004 in fulfilment of this requirement. The programme describes SKB's plans for the period 2005-2010. The period of immediate concern is 2005-2007. The level of detail for the three subsequent years is naturally lower.The programme provides a basis for designing systems for safe management and disposal of the radioactive waste from the nuclear power plants. SKB's plan is to implement deep disposal of the spent fuel in accordance with the KBS-3 method. In the RD and D-Programme we describe our activities and planning for this line of action and the work that is being conducted on alternative methods. Review of the programme can contribute valuable outside viewpoints. The regulatory authorities and the Government can clarify how they look upon different parts of the programme and stipulate guidelines for the future. Municipalities and other stakeholders can, after studying the programme, offer their viewpoints to SKB, the regulatory authorities or the Government.The goal for the period up to the end of 2008 is to be able to submit permit applications for the encapsulation plant and the deep repository. This RD and D-Programme therefore differs from the preceding ones in that it concentrates on questions relating to technology development for these facilities. The programmes for safety assessment and research on the long-term processes that take place in the deep repository are then linked together with the programmes for technology development. Another new

  8. Expression patterns of DLK1 and INSL3 identify stages of Leydig cell differentiation during normal development and in testicular pathologies, including testicular cancer and Klinefelter syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lottrup, G; Nielsen, J E; Maroun, L L

    2014-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION: What is the differentiation stage of human testicular interstitial cells, in particular Leydig cells (LC), within micronodules found in patients with infertility, testicular cancer and Klinefelter syndrome? SUMMARY ANSWER: The Leydig- and peritubular-cell populations in testes....... MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: DLK1, INSL3 and COUP-TFII expression changed during normal development and was linked to different stages of LC differentiation: DLK1 was expressed in all fetal LCs, but only in spindle-shaped progenitor cells and in a small subset of polygonal LCs in the normal...... adult testis; INSL3 was expressed in a subset of fetal LCs, but in the majority of adult LCs; and COUP-TFII was expressed in peritubular and mesenchymal stroma cells at all ages, in fetal LCs early in gestation and in a subset of adult LCs. CYP11A1 was expressed in the majority of LCs regardless of age...

  9. RD and D-Programme 2004. Programme for research, development and demonstration of methods for the management and disposal of nuclear waste, including social science research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-09-01

    SKB (the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co), which is owned by the companies that operate the Swedish nuclear power plants, has been assigned the task of managing and disposing of the spent nuclear fuel from the reactors. The Nuclear Activities Act requires a programme of comprehensive research and development and other measures that are needed to manage and dispose of nuclear waste in a safe manner and to decommission and dismantle the nuclear power plants. SKB is now presenting RD and D-Programme 2004 in fulfilment of this requirement. The programme describes SKB's plans for the period 2005-2010. The period of immediate concern is 2005-2007. The level of detail for the three subsequent years is naturally lower.The programme provides a basis for designing systems for safe management and disposal of the radioactive waste from the nuclear power plants. SKB's plan is to implement deep disposal of the spent fuel in accordance with the KBS-3 method. In the RD and D-Programme we describe our activities and planning for this line of action and the work that is being conducted on alternative methods. Review of the programme can contribute valuable outside viewpoints. The regulatory authorities and the Government can clarify how they look upon different parts of the programme and stipulate guidelines for the future. Municipalities and other stakeholders can, after studying the programme, offer their viewpoints to SKB, the regulatory authorities or the Government.The goal for the period up to the end of 2008 is to be able to submit permit applications for the encapsulation plant and the deep repository. This RD and D-Programme therefore differs from the preceding ones in that it concentrates on questions relating to technology development for these facilities. The programmes for safety assessment and research on the long-term processes that take place in the deep repository are then linked together with the programmes for technology development. Another

  10. Development of best estimate auditing code for CANDU thermal-hydraulic safety analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Bub Dong; Lee, Won Jae; Hwang, Moon Kyu; Lim, Hong Sik [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2002-04-01

    The main purpose of this study is to develop a thermal hydraulic auditing code for the CANDU reactor, modifying the model of existing PWR auditing tool, i.e. RELAP5/MOD3.The study was performed by reconsideration of the previous code assessment works and phenomena identification for essential accident scenario. Improvement areas of model development for auditing tool were identified based on the code comparison and PIRT results. Nine models have been improved significantly for the analysis of LOCA and Mon LOCA event. Conceptual problem or separate effect assessment have been performed to verify the model improvement. The linking calculation with CONTAIN 2.0 has been also enabled to establish the unified auditing code system. Analysis for the CANDU plant real transient and hypothetical LOCA bas been performed using the improved version. It has been concluded that the developed version can be utilized for the auditing analysis of LOCA and non-LOCA event for the CANDU reactor. 25 refs., 84 figs., 36 tabs. (Author)

  11. Estimation of physical and mental development of children of the senior pre-school age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasichnyk V.M.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In this work is conducted physical and mental development of children of the senior preschool age. In the experiment, 90 children took part in the fifth year of life, among which 55 boys and 35 girls. It is noted that the children surveyed rate the physical development of the index corresponds to level - above the average. It was determined that the parameters of the functional state of preschool age children meet the age norm. It is revealed that in determining physical performance among boys set a good level, and satisfactory in girls. It is established that the results of physical fitness of boys is slightly higher than in girls. It was found that the diagnosis of the level of mental development in children fifth year of life, the average productivity and stability of attention, visual and auditory memory, visual-imagery and visual-thinking, and perception of speech correspond to the average level, and cognitive processes such as switching and distribution attention, imagination - a low level.

  12. THE SUBSTANTIATION OF THE METHODICAL APPROACH FOR ESTIMATION OF DYNAMICS OF DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES OF OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY USING (THE GERMAN EXAMPLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Gorlov

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the introduction of renewable energy technologies (RES occurs against the backdrop of a developed hydrocarbon energy market, which raises the risk of seeing unreasonable decisions by investors. The development and use of various analytical tools can reduce such risks. Economic models based on calculations by dozens of experts of a number of macro- and micro-economic factors have been used to study the replacement of traditional energy technologies with already developed RES technologies. At the same time, simpler but more effective econometric methods are being developed, based on the data of real projects and allowing to conduct research for the recently launched RES technologies. The main purpose of this article is to substantiate one of such methodologies used to asses growth dynamics of developing offshore wind energy based on the example of Germany – the leading country in the North Sea basin.Methods: many foreign and domestic authoritative organizations have developed a number of fairly complex models in order to study the economic substitution processes in fuel and energy complexes of different countries, calculate trends and forecasts in this area. Such models take into account findings of dozens of experts focusing on various macro and micro economic parameters and factors, including GDP, growth of employment, welfare, trade and many others. However, econometric methods based on the study of learning curves and calculations of the present value of LCOE electricity according to real energy projects tend to be simpler and effective tool used in order to estimates the recently developed RES technologies for which substantial volumes of data have not yet developed. This article considers substantiation of such methodical and mathematical approaches used to evaluate the dynamics of the development of offshore wind energy technologies using the model "Times model", modified by the author.Results: the feasibility analysis of using

  13. Modelling and development of estimation and control algorithms: application to a bio process; Modelisation et elaboration d`algorithmes d`estimation et de commande: application a un bioprocede

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maher, M.

    1995-02-03

    Modelling, estimation and control of an alcoholic fermentation process is the purpose of this thesis. A simple mathematical model of a fermentation process is established by using experimental results obtained on the plant. This nonlinear model is used for numerical simulation, analysis and synthesis of estimation and control algorithms. The problem of state and parameter nonlinear estimation of bio-processes is studied. Two estimation techniques are developed and proposed to bypass the lack of sensors for certain physical variables. Their performances are studied by numerical simulation. One of these estimators is validated on experimental results of batch and continuous fermentations. An adaptive control by law is proposed for the regulation and tracking of the substrate concentration of the plant by acting on the dilution rate. It is a nonlinear control strategy coupled with the previous validated estimator. The performance of this control law is evaluated by a real application to a continuous flow fermentation process. (author) refs.

  14. Developing the continuum of dental education: including dental foundation trainers in the delivery of a community-based clinical teaching programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, C D; Ash, P J; Chadwick, B L; Herbert, R A; Cowpe, J G

    2012-11-01

    Despite advances in evidence-based dental school educational programmes, the charge is sometimes made that dental students are 'no longer as good as they used to be'. Recent modifications have meant that dental education is now a 'life-long experience', of which dental school is the initial, albeit very important, component. Contemporary dental students will normally enter dental foundation (DF) training on completion of dental school. As such there may be value in including DF trainers in dental school teaching programmes. The aim of this paper is to report the experiences, feedback and opinions of these DF trainers following their first-hand experience of the community-based clinical teaching programme at Cardiff, and assess if their perspectives of contemporary dental student education changed following this. DF trainers were invited to attend the community-based clinical teaching programme at Cardiff on an observer basis. Twenty-four DF trainers attended, following which evaluation questionnaires were completed. Information sought included opinions and attitudes to the teaching programme, the physical environment in which the teaching programme took place, knowledge and attitudes towards community-based clinical teaching and modifications that DF trainers would make to the teaching programme to further improve the knowledge, skills and attributes of dental school graduates for DF training. Responses were received from 20 DF trainers (response rate = 83%). All 20 respondents felt that the teaching provided within the community-based clinical teaching programme was appropriate, with one respondent noting that it was like 'a day in the life of a dental practice', 'where anything could present'. Sixteen respondents were satisfied with the scope and content of the community-based clinical teaching programme, with a small number recommending inclusion of teaching in relation to inlays/onlays (n = 2), simple orthodontics (n = 1) and splinting (n = 1). Eighteen

  15. Development of Equation Based on Urinary Purine Derivatives to Estimate Rumen Microbial Protein Production in Goats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jetana, Thongsuk; Abdullah, Norhani; Liang, Boo Juan; Syed Salim, Syed Jalaludin; Ho, Wan Yin

    2003-06-01

    Three experiments were conducted at the farm of the Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia, to establish a model as an index for estimating rumen microbial protein production. In Experiment 1, six Ferral male goats (wt. 40.2±4.6 kg) were used to determine the endogenous purine derivatives (PD) excreted in the urine by fasting. In Experiment 2, four Ferral male goats (wt. 39.6±1.8 kg) were used to measure the proportion of plasma PD excreted in the urine by using [ 14 C]-uric acid as a marker at two levels of feed intake (40% and 80% voluntary intake), using an incomplete 2x4 Latin square experimental design. The feed consisted of 40% oil palm frond and 60% concentrate (OPFC). In Experiment 3, four Ferral male goats fed (OPFC)) were slaughtered and rumen contents were taken for measurements of purine and total nitrogen contents of mixed rumen microbes. The results showed that endogenous PD (allantoin, uric acid, xanthine and hypoxanthine) excreted in the urine obtained by the fasting trial was 202±17 μmol/kg BW 0 . 75 d - 1. The average percentage recovery of plasma PD excretion in the urine by using [ 14 C)-uric acid as a marker was 83±2.0% (cv=6.88, ranged 76.3-91.4%, n=8). Percentage recovery was not affected by levels of feed intake. The ratio of purine N: total N in the mixed rumen liquid associated bacteria (LAB) was 0.085. In this study, a preliminary model for goats was established by using the information from the recovery of labeled PD [ 14 C]-uric acid and the fasting PD excretion. The model obtained was Y 0.83X + 0.202 x BW 0 . 75 , where Y = PD excretion in the urine (mmol/d) X PD absorption at small intestine (mmol/d) BW 0 . 75 = Metabolic body weight (kg) Thus the microbial nitrogen based on total PD (MNpd) can be calculated as follows: MNpd = 70 x X = 0.992 x X (g/d) 0.085 x 0.83 x 1000 where 0.085 is the ratio of purine-N: total N in mixed rumen microbes, 0.83 is the average of digestibility of microbial purine from published

  16. The development of a cholesterol biosensor using a liquid crystal/aqueous interface in a SDS-included β-cyclodextrin aqueous solution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munir, Sundas; Park, Soo-Young

    2015-09-17

    Sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) including β-cyclodextrin (β-CD) (β-CDSDS) was used to detect cholesterol at the 4-cyano-4'-pentylbiphenyl (5CB)/aqueous interface in transmission electron microscopy (TEM) grid cells. The β-CD acts as a host for SDS (guest). The guest SDS enclosed within the β-CD cavity was replaced with cholesterol by injecting cholesterol solution into the TEM cell at concentrations greater than 3 μM. The replacement of SDS with cholesterol was confirmed by pH measurement and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The SDS excluded from the β-CD altered the planar orientation of the 5CB confined within the TEM grid cell to a homeotropic orientation. This planar-to-homeotropic transition was observed using a polarized optical microscope under crossed polarizers. This convenient TEM grid cell provides a new method for the selective detection of cholesterol without immobilization of the detecting receptors (enzyme, antibody, or aptamer) or the use of sophisticated instruments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. The development of a cholesterol biosensor using a liquid crystal/aqueous interface in a SDS-included β-cyclodextrin aqueous solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munir, Sundas; Park, Soo-Young, E-mail: psy@knu.ac.kr

    2015-09-17

    Sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) including β-cyclodextrin (β-CD) (β-CD{sub SDS}) was used to detect cholesterol at the 4-cyano-4′-pentylbiphenyl (5CB)/aqueous interface in transmission electron microscopy (TEM) grid cells. The β-CD acts as a host for SDS (guest). The guest SDS enclosed within the β-CD cavity was replaced with cholesterol by injecting cholesterol solution into the TEM cell at concentrations greater than 3 μM. The replacement of SDS with cholesterol was confirmed by pH measurement and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The SDS excluded from the β-CD altered the planar orientation of the 5CB confined within the TEM grid cell to a homeotropic orientation. This planar-to-homeotropic transition was observed using a polarized optical microscope under crossed polarizers. This convenient TEM grid cell provides a new method for the selective detection of cholesterol without immobilization of the detecting receptors (enzyme, antibody, or aptamer) or the use of sophisticated instruments. - Highlights: • β-CD-SDS inclusion was used for the detection of cholesterol at 5CB/aqueous interface. • The SDS enclosed within the β-CD cavity was replaced by cholesterol. • The released SDS from the β-CD caused homeotropic orientation of 5CB. • The cholesterol was detected from planar-to-homeotropic transition of 5CB. • This convenient TEM grid cell provides a new method for the selective detection of cholesterol.

  18. Methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics and development of annual flow-duration statistics for Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koltun, G.F.; Kula, Stephanie P.

    2013-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study to develop methods for estimating selected low-flow statistics and for determining annual flow-duration statistics for Ohio streams. Regression techniques were used to develop equations for estimating 10-year recurrence-interval (10-percent annual-nonexceedance probability) low-flow yields, in cubic feet per second per square mile, with averaging periods of 1, 7, 30, and 90-day(s), and for estimating the yield corresponding to the long-term 80-percent duration flow. These equations, which estimate low-flow yields as a function of a streamflow-variability index, are based on previously published low-flow statistics for 79 long-term continuous-record streamgages with at least 10 years of data collected through water year 1997. When applied to the calibration dataset, average absolute percent errors for the regression equations ranged from 15.8 to 42.0 percent. The regression results have been incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats application for Ohio (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ohio.html) in the form of a yield grid to facilitate estimation of the corresponding streamflow statistics in cubic feet per second. Logistic-regression equations also were developed and incorporated into the USGS StreamStats application for Ohio for selected low-flow statistics to help identify occurrences of zero-valued statistics. Quantiles of daily and 7-day mean streamflows were determined for annual and annual-seasonal (September–November) periods for each complete climatic year of streamflow-gaging station record for 110 selected streamflow-gaging stations with 20 or more years of record. The quantiles determined for each climatic year were the 99-, 98-, 95-, 90-, 80-, 75-, 70-, 60-, 50-, 40-, 30-, 25-, 20-, 10-, 5-, 2-, and 1-percent exceedance streamflows. Selected exceedance percentiles of the annual-exceedance percentiles were subsequently computed and tabulated to help facilitate consideration of the

  19. Schooling and wage income losses due to early-childhood growth faltering in developing countries: national, regional, and global estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Günther; Peet, Evan; Danaei, Goodarz; Andrews, Kathryn; McCoy, Dana Charles; Sudfeld, Christopher R; Smith Fawzi, Mary C; Ezzati, Majid; Fawzi, Wafaie W

    2016-07-01

    The growth of >300 million children growth faltering in early childhood are not available. We quantified the economic cost of growth faltering in developing countries. We combined the most recent country-level estimates of linear growth delays from the Nutrition Impact Model Study with estimates of returns to education in developing countries to estimate the impact of early-life growth faltering on educational attainment and future incomes. Primary outcomes were total years of educational attainment lost as well as the net present value of future wage earnings lost per child and birth cohort due to growth faltering in 137 developing countries. Bootstrapped standard errors were computed to account for uncertainty in modeling inputs. Our estimates suggest that early-life growth faltering in developing countries caused a total loss of 69.4 million y of educational attainment (95% CI: 41.7 million, 92.6 million y) per birth cohort. Educational attainment losses were largest in South Asia (27.6 million y; 95% CI: 20.0 million, 35.8 million y) as well as in Eastern (10.3 million y; 95% CI: 7.2 million, 12.9 million y) and Western sub-Saharan Africa (8.8 million y; 95% CI: 6.4 million, 11.5 million y). Globally, growth faltering in developing countries caused a total economic cost of $176.8 billion (95% CI: $100.9 billion, $262.6 billion)/birth cohort at nominal exchange rates, and $616.5 billion (95% CI: $365.3 billion, $898.9 billion) at purchasing power parity-adjusted exchange rates. At the regional level, economic costs were largest in South Asia ($46.6 billion; 95% CI: $33.3 billion, $61.1 billion), followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion; 95% CI: $19.2 billion, $74.6 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion; 95% CI: $24.4 billion, $45.3 billion). Our results indicate that the annual cost of early-childhood growth faltering is substantial. Further investment in scaling up effective interventions in this area is urgently needed and likely to yield long run

  20. Development and estimation of a novel cryoprobe utilizing the Peltier effect for precise and safe cryosurgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Hiroki; Maruyama, Shigenao; Okajima, Junnosuke; Aiba, Sestuya; Komiya, Atsuki

    2009-12-01

    We have developed a novel cryoprobe for skin cryosurgery utilizing the Peltier effect. The four most important parameters for necrotizing tissue efficiently are the cooling rate, end temperature, hold time and thawing rate. In cryosurgery for small skin diseases such as flecks or early carcinoma, it is also important to control the thickness of the frozen region precisely to prevent necrotizing healthy tissue. To satisfy these exacting conditions, we have developed a novel cryoprobe to which a Peltier module was attached. The cryoprobe makes it possible to control heat transfer to skin surface precisely using a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller, and because it uses the Peltier effect, the cryoprobe does not need to move during the operation. We also developed a numerical simulation method that allows us to predict the frozen region and the temperature profile during cryosurgery. We tested the performance of our Peltier cryoprobe by cooling agar, and the results show that the cryoprobe has sufficient cooling performance for cryosurgery, because it can apply a cooling rate of more than 250 degrees C/min until the temperature reaches -40 degrees C. We also used a numerical simulation to reconstruct the supercooling phenomenon and examine the immediate progress of the frozen region with ice nucleation. The calculated frozen region was compared with the experimentally measured frozen region observed by an interferometer, and the calculation results showed good agreement. The results of numerical simulation confirmed that the frozen region could be predicted accurately with a margin of error as small as 150 microm during use of the cryoprobe in cryosurgery. The numerical simulation also showed that the cryoprobe can control freezing to a depth as shallow as 300 microm.

  1. Development of a neonate lung reconstruction algorithm using a wavelet AMG and estimated boundary form

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayford, R; Tizzard, A; Yerworth, R; Kantartzis, P; Liatsis, P; Demosthenous, A

    2008-01-01

    Objective, non-invasive measures of lung maturity and development, oxygen requirements and lung function, suitable for use in small, unsedated infants, are urgently required to define the nature and severity of persisting lung disease, and to identify risk factors for developing chronic lung problems. Disorders of lung growth, maturation and control of breathing are among the most important problems faced by the neonatologists. At present, no system for continuous monitoring of neonate lung function to reduce the risk of chronic lung disease in infancy in intensive care units exists. We are in the process of developing a new integrated electrical impedance tomography (EIT) system based on wearable technology to integrate measures of the boundary diameter from the boundary form for neonates into the reconstruction algorithm. In principle, this approach could provide a reduction of image artefacts in the reconstructed image associated with incorrect boundary form assumptions. In this paper, we investigate the required accuracy of the boundary form that would be suitable to minimize artefacts in the reconstruction for neonate lung function. The number of data points needed to create the required boundary form is automatically determined using genetic algorithms. The approach presented in this paper is to assist quality of the reconstruction using different approximations to the ideal boundary form. We also investigate the use of a wavelet algebraic multi-grid (WAMG) preconditioner to reduce the reconstruction computation requirements. Results are presented that demonstrate a full 3D model is required to minimize artefact in the reconstructed image and the implementation of a WAMG for EIT

  2. Development and Validation of Liquid Chromatographic Method for Estimation of Naringin in Nanoformulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kranti P. Musmade

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple, precise, accurate, rapid, and sensitive reverse phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC method with UV detection has been developed and validated for quantification of naringin (NAR in novel pharmaceutical formulation. NAR is a polyphenolic flavonoid present in most of the citrus plants having variety of pharmacological activities. Method optimization was carried out by considering the various parameters such as effect of pH and column. The analyte was separated by employing a C18 (250.0 × 4.6 mm, 5 μm column at ambient temperature in isocratic conditions using phosphate buffer pH 3.5: acetonitrile (75 : 25% v/v as mobile phase pumped at a flow rate of 1.0 mL/min. UV detection was carried out at 282 nm. The developed method was validated according to ICH guidelines Q2(R1. The method was found to be precise and accurate on statistical evaluation with a linearity range of 0.1 to 20.0 μg/mL for NAR. The intra- and interday precision studies showed good reproducibility with coefficients of variation (CV less than 1.0%. The mean recovery of NAR was found to be 99.33 ± 0.16%. The proposed method was found to be highly accurate, sensitive, and robust. The proposed liquid chromatographic method was successfully employed for the routine analysis of said compound in developed novel nanopharmaceuticals. The presence of excipients did not show any interference on the determination of NAR, indicating method specificity.

  3. Complete characteristics of rating estimations economic development of subjects of the Russian Federation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamid Nurislamovich Gizatullin

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper allocates complete characteristics of indicators of economic development of subjects of the Russian Federation. Their system representation has appeared more informative, than system of simple social and economic indexes as allows reflecting variety of communications between them, providing preserving and development of researched objects. It is established that at deterioration of state of the economy of regions of their structure change the role in formation of base indicators. At the first stage it is expressed by change of a vector of development with an opposite direction; on the second — in transition from an optimum condition of available structures on periphery; on the third — in the termination of their participation in forming of under laying echelons. At transition of subsystems of social and economic indexes from the first on the second echelon the contribution of the moved potential from structures «resource-product» and «process» for elements of activization increases, for structures «object», on the contrary, decreases, while for final elements the opposite situation is observed. As approaching the top echelon there is a reduction of interaction of base indicators from structures «resource-product» and «process», and on the contrary, growth to structures «object». The conclusion is drawn that successful social and economic activity of regions is determined by synchronous interaction of all allocated structures («resource-product», «process» and «object». Use of the offered algorithm on the basis of complete characteristics allows not only to find out problem regions, but also shows possibility of management on the basis of revealed statistical regularities their condition by forming of optimum mutual relations between the allocated subsystems and, finally, creation of the big possibilities for realization of the having potential

  4. Development of a LSSVM-GC model for estimating the electrical conductivity of ionic liquids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gharagheizi, Farhad; Ilani-Kashkouli, Poorandokht; Sattari, Mehdi

    2014-01-01

    In this communication, an extensive set of 1077 experimental electrical conductivity data for 54 ionic liquids (ILs) was collected from 21 different literature sources. Using this dataset, a reliable least square support vector machine-group contribution (LSSVM-GC) model has been developed, which...... employs a total of 22 sub-structures in addition to the temperature to represent/predict the electrical conductivity of ILs. In order to distinguish the effects of the anion and cation on the electrical conductivity of ILs, 11 sub-structures related to the chemical structure of anions, and 11 sub...

  5. Technological development and user preference estimation of a Start-up based on the social networks

    OpenAIRE

    Bastida Raja, Judit

    2017-01-01

    The proposed TFG covers the analysis, planing, development, implementation and maintenance of a process of technological growth of an startup. This Thesis means not only the end of a stage, is the link between the academic life and an alive business project. In this thesis it is explained how I could take profit of my technological skills and make of Lemon’s Secrets, my Start-up, a modernised, more efficient and up to date company. In this thesis is carried up an analysis of our c...

  6. Development of a model of atmospheric oxygen variations to estimate terrestrial carbon storage and release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najjar, Raymond G.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Erickson, David J., III

    1995-01-01

    Two years of work has been completed towards the development of a model of atmospheric oxygen variations on seasonal to decadal timescales. During the first year we (1) constructed a preliminary monthly-mean climatology of surface ocean oxygen anomalies, (2) began modeling studies to assess the importance of short term variability on the monthly-mean oxygen flux, and (3) conducted preliminary simulations of the annual mean cycle of oxygen in the atmosphere. Most of the second year was devoted to improving the monthly mean climatology of oxygen in the surface ocean.

  7. Development of symmetric composition-gradient materials including hard particles in its surface layer; Hyosobu ni koshitsu ryushi wo fukumu taishogata sosei keisha zairyo no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    Development of new materials with both thermal resistance and thermal shock resistance was studied on the basis of symmetric ceramics/metal/ceramics gradient composition. Al2O3/TiC/Ni/TiC/Al2O3 was used as material model of basic composition, and the system was selected where WC-Co system alloy hard particles were dispersed into the Al2O3 ceramic surface layer. The layered material was sintered in N2 gas atmosphere by SHS/HIP method using exothermic caused by nitriding reaction. Since cracks were generated in some specimens of 5-layer structure, improved specimens of 7-layer structure were prepared. To examine the effect of a particle size on toughness, WC-Co system alloy specimens with different particle sizes were also prepared. As a result, no cracks were found, and residual stress and fracture toughness were affected by particle size. In addition, the following were studied: technique of mass production, observation of fine structures, analysis of thermal stress, thermal shock resistance, and friction and abrasion characteristics. 13 refs., 65 figs., 15 tabs.

  8. Pump apparatus including deconsolidator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sonwane, Chandrashekhar; Saunders, Timothy; Fitzsimmons, Mark Andrew

    2014-10-07

    A pump apparatus includes a particulate pump that defines a passage that extends from an inlet to an outlet. A duct is in flow communication with the outlet. The duct includes a deconsolidator configured to fragment particle agglomerates received from the passage.

  9. RP-HPLC method development and validation for estimation of rivaroxaban in pharmaceutical dosage forms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Çelebier

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Rivaroxaban, an anti-clotting medication, acts at a crucial point in the blood-clotting process and stops the formation of blood clots. In this study, RP-HPLC method was developed for the determination of rivaroxaban in tablets (Xarelto® (10 mg. Phenomenex Luna 5 µm C18 100 Å LC Column (250 x 4.6 mm was used at 40 ºC. Isocratic elution was performed with ACN:Water (55:45 v/v mixture. The flow rate was 1.2 mL min-1 and UV detection was at 249 nm. Internal standard (Caffeine and rivaroxaban were eluted within 2.21 and 3.37 minutes, respectively. The developed method was validated according to the ICH guidelines and found to be linear within the range 0.005 - 40.0 µg mL-1. The method was accurate, precise, robust and rapid. Thus, it was applied successfully for the quality control assay of rivaroxaban in tablet dosage form.

  10. Growth of alveoli during postnatal development in humans based on stereological estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herring, Matt J; Putney, Lei F; Wyatt, Gregory; Finkbeiner, Walter E; Hyde, Dallas M

    2014-08-15

    Alveolarization in humans and nonhuman primates begins during prenatal development. Advances in stereological counting techniques allow accurate assessment of alveolar number; however, these techniques have not been applied to the developing human lung. Based on the recent American Thoracic Society guidelines for stereology, lungs from human autopsies, ages 2 mo to 15 yr, were fractionated and isometric uniform randomly sampled to count the number of alveoli. The number of alveoli was compared with age, weight, and height as well as growth between right and left lungs. The number of alveoli in the human lung increased exponentially during the first 2 yr of life but continued to increase albeit at a reduced rate through adolescence. Alveolar numbers also correlated with the indirect radial alveolar count technique. Growth curves for human alveolarization were compared using historical data of nonhuman primates and rats. The alveolar growth rate in nonhuman primates was nearly identical to the human growth curve. Rats were significantly different, showing a more pronounced exponential growth during the first 20 days of life. This evidence indicates that the human lung may be more plastic than originally thought, with alveolarization occurring well into adolescence. The first 20 days of life in rats implies a growth curve that may relate more to prenatal growth in humans. The data suggest that nonhuman primates are a better laboratory model for studies of human postnatal lung growth than rats. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

  11. Development of FIAT-Based Parametric Thermal Protection System Mass Estimating Relationships for NASA's Multi-Mission Earth Entry Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepka, Steven A.; Zarchi, Kerry; Maddock, Robert W.; Samareh, Jamshid A.

    2013-01-01

    Part of NASAs In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) program is the development of the tradespace to support the design of a family of multi-mission Earth Entry Vehicles (MMEEV) to meet a wide range of mission requirements. An integrated tool called the Multi Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry Descent and Landing or M-SAPE tool is being developed as part of Entry Vehicle Technology project under In-Space Technology program. The analysis and design of an Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) is multidisciplinary in nature, requiring the application many disciplines. Part of M-SAPE's application required the development of parametric mass estimating relationships (MERs) to determine the vehicle's required Thermal Protection System (TPS) for safe Earth entry. For this analysis, the heat shield was assumed to be made of a constant thickness TPS. This resulting MERs will then e used to determine the pre-flight mass of the TPS. Two Mers have been developed for the vehicle forebaody. One MER was developed for PICA and the other consisting of Carbon Phenolic atop an Advanced Carbon-Carbon composition. For the the backshell, MERs have been developed for SIRCA, Acusil II, and LI-900. How these MERs were developed, the resulting equations, model limitations, and model accuracy are discussed in this poster.

  12. Behavioral Estimators of the Technological Development Plant at Hontomín (Burgos)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo, F.; Eguilior, S.; Hurtado, A.

    2015-01-01

    The storage of CO2 in geological formations is a promising option in the set of technological strategies to reduce the concentration of atmospheric CO2. An essential requirement for the definition and planning of CO2 injection strategies at local, national and supranational scales and to gaining public acceptance that allows the application of this technology to an industrial scale is building safe geological storages capable of sequestering CO2 during extended periods with minimal risk of leakage, i.e., annual leakage rates of CO2 less than 0.01% of the total volume stored, equivalent to a retention period 10 000 years. This report sets out the performance indicators and environmental and safety criteria to be satisfied in the long-term risk analysis and assessment of the Technological Development Plant for CO2 Geological Storage at the Hontomín site (Burgos, Spain).

  13. The estimate efficiency of techniques development special endurance wrestlers at the specialized basic training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latyshev N.V.

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of work - experimentally to check up efficiency of method of development of the special endurance of sportsmen with the use of control-trainer devices. In an experiment took part 24 sportsmen in age 16 - 17 years. Reliable distinctions are exposed between the groups of sportsmen on indexes in tests on the special physical preparation (heat round hands and passage-way in feet, in a test on the special endurance (on all of indexes of test, except for the amount of the executed exercises in the first period and during work on control-trainer device (work on a trainer during 60 seconds and work on a trainer 3×120 seconds.

  14. Estimating the Risk of Chronic Pain: Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model (PICKUP for Patients with Acute Low Back Pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian C Traeger

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Low back pain (LBP is a major health problem. Globally it is responsible for the most years lived with disability. The most problematic type of LBP is chronic LBP (pain lasting longer than 3 mo; it has a poor prognosis and is costly, and interventions are only moderately effective. Targeting interventions according to risk profile is a promising approach to prevent the onset of chronic LBP. Developing accurate prognostic models is the first step. No validated prognostic models are available to accurately predict the onset of chronic LBP. The primary aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to estimate the risk of chronic LBP.We used the PROGRESS framework to specify a priori methods, which we published in a study protocol. Data from 2,758 patients with acute LBP attending primary care in Australia between 5 November 2003 and 15 July 2005 (development sample, n = 1,230 and between 10 November 2009 and 5 February 2013 (external validation sample, n = 1,528 were used to develop and externally validate the model. The primary outcome was chronic LBP (ongoing pain at 3 mo. In all, 30% of the development sample and 19% of the external validation sample developed chronic LBP. In the external validation sample, the primary model (PICKUP discriminated between those who did and did not develop chronic LBP with acceptable performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.66 [95% CI 0.63 to 0.69]. Although model calibration was also acceptable in the external validation sample (intercept = -0.55, slope = 0.89, some miscalibration was observed for high-risk groups. The decision curve analysis estimated that, if decisions to recommend further intervention were based on risk scores, screening could lead to a net reduction of 40 unnecessary interventions for every 100 patients presenting to primary care compared to a "treat all" approach. Limitations of the method include the model being restricted to using prognostic

  15. Development of a novel ArcCHECK(™) insert for routine quality assurance of VMAT delivery including dose calculation with inhomogeneities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakir, H; Gaede, S; Mulligan, M; Chen, J Z

    2012-07