Sample records for incident warning cycle

  1. Significant incidents in nuclear fuel cycle facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    In contrast to nuclear power plants, events in nuclear fuel cycle facilities are not well documented. The INES database covers all the nuclear fuel cycle facilities; however, it was developed in the early 1990s and does not contain information on events prior to that. The purpose of the present report is to collect significant events and analyze them in order to give a safety related overview of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Significant incidents were selected using the following criteria: release of radioactive material or exposure to radiation; degradation of items important to safety; and deficiencies in design, quality assurance, etc. which include criticality incidents, fire, explosion, radioactive release and contamination. This report includes an explanation, where possible, of root causes, lessons learned and action taken. 4 refs, 4 tabs

  2. A Topology Visualization Early Warning Distribution Algorithm for Large-Scale Network Security Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui He


    Full Text Available It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system’s emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks’ damage, and strengthen the system’s counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system’s plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks’ topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology.

  3. Meteorological Integration for the Biological Warning and Incident Characterization (BWIC) System: General Guidance for BWIC Cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaw, William J.; Wang, Weiguo; Rutz, Frederick C.; Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Xie, YuLong; Seiple, Timothy E.; Allwine, K Jerry


    The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for developing systems to detect the release of aerosolized bioagents in urban environments. The system that accomplishes this, known as BioWatch, is a robust first-generation monitoring system. In conjunction with the BioWatch detection network, DHS has also developed a software tool for cities to use to assist in their response when a bioagent is detected. This tool, the Biological Warning and Incident Characterization (BWIC) System, will eventually be deployed to all BioWatch cities to aid in the interpretation of the public health significance of indicators from the BioWatch networks. BWIC consists of a set of integrated modules, including meteorological models, that estimate the effect of a biological agent on a city’s population once it has been detected. For the meteorological models in BWIC to successfully calculate the distribution of biological material, they must have as input accurate meteorological data, and wind fields in particular. The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for cities to use in identifying sources of good-quality local meteorological data that BWIC needs to function properly. This process of finding sources of local meteorological data, evaluating the data quality and gaps in coverage, and getting the data into BWIC, referred to as meteorological integration, is described. The good news for many cities is that meteorological measurement networks are becoming increasingly common. Most of these networks allow their data to be distributed in real time via the internet. Thus, cities will often only need to evaluate the quality of available measurements and perhaps add a modest number of stations where coverage is poor.

  4. Laser warning receiver to identify the wavelength and angle of arrival of incident laser light (United States)

    Sinclair; Michael B.; Sweatt, William C.


    A laser warning receiver is disclosed which has up to hundreds of individual optical channels each optically oriented to receive laser light from a different angle of arrival. Each optical channel has an optical wedge to define the angle of arrival, and a lens to focus the laser light onto a multi-wavelength photodetector for that channel. Each multi-wavelength photodetector has a number of semiconductor layers which are located in a multi-dielectric stack that concentrates the laser light into one of the semiconductor layers according to wavelength. An electrical signal from the multi-wavelength photodetector can be processed to determine both the angle of arrival and the wavelength of the laser light.

  5. Changes in Cycling and Incidence of Overweight and Obesity among Danish Men and Women. (United States)

    Rasmussen, Martin G; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne; Jensen, Majken K; Østergaard, Lars; Grøntved, Anders


    Overweight and obesity is associated with increased risk of several non-communicable diseases and is a growing public health issue. The primary purpose of the current study was to investigate incidence of overweight and obesity according to five-year cycling habits. The secondary purpose was to investigate incidence of remission from overweight and obesity according to five-year cycling habits. We analyzed 9014 men and 8661 women without chronic disease who between 1993 and 2003 completed two assessments approximately five years apart. At both assessments participants reported habitual cycling habits. Also, bodyweight and waist circumference was measured by a lab technician at baseline and self-assessed at second examination. We computed multivariable adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for development of and remission from abdominal and general overweight and obesity, according to five-year cycling habits. Continued cycling was associated with lower odds for incidence of abdominal (men:>102 cm, women:>88 cm) and incidence of general (BMI≥30 kg/m) obesity; compared to no cycling, ORs (95% CIs) were 0.82 (0.74,0.91) and 0.74 (0.60,0.92) for abdominal and general obesity, respectively. Also, those who initiated cycling had lower odds for incidence of abdominal obesity; OR (95% CI) was 0.85 (0.73,1.00) relative to no cycling. Although we found no evidence of remission from abdominal and general overweight and obesity according to five-year cycling habits, those who continued cycling had significantly larger decreases in waist circumference relative to non-cyclists (β-coefficient (95% CI): -0,95 cm (-1,56 cm,-0,33 cm). Continued cycling compared to no cycling was associated with lower odds for abdominal and general obesity. Also, late-in-life initiation of cycling was associated with lower odds for abdominal obesity, relative to no cycling.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andra Devi Benazir


    Full Text Available The economic crisis in 1997/1998 that was signed by depreciation rupiah almost destroyed the pillars of the economy. This exchange rate shock possibly will happen in the future like that happened in August 2007. At the same time, rupiah falled to the lowest level Rp. 9.410 per dollar (the exchange rate use the last month in August 2007. The exchange rate of its daily until above Rp 9.500 per dollar (Sadewa, 2007. Therefore, it was needed indicator of theearly detection with build leading indicators the movement of the exchange rate in Indonesia. The purpose of this research is building leading indicators the movement of the exchangerate in Indonesia. It could give the capacity forecasting of the Indonesian economy of the movement direction in a manner the aggregate with the Business Cycle Analysis method andIts development. Empirical results showed that is received by four leading indicators and four coincident indicators. The real export, the real import, foreign currency deposit, and forexbanks demand deposits in foreign currency became the moving indicator preceded the exchange rate. Whereas, there are four indicators to coincident was foreign assets, interbank call money rate 1 day, the German share index (DAX, and the USA share index (Nasdaq. This condition indicated that the exchange rate rupiah really was affected by the external factor.

  7. The business cycle and the incidence of workplace injuries: evidence from the U.S.A. (United States)

    Asfaw, Abay; Pana-Cryan, Regina; Rosa, Roger


    The current study explored the association between the business cycle and the incidence of workplace injuries to identify cyclically sensitive industries and the relative contribution of physical capital and labor utilization within industries. Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfatal injury rates from 1976 through 2007 were examined across five industry sectors with respect to several macroeconomic indicators. Within industries, injury associations with utilization of labor and physical capital over time were tested using time series regression methods. Pro-cyclical associations between business cycle indicators and injury incidence were observed in mining, construction, and manufacturing but not in agriculture or trade. Physical capital utilization was the highest potential contributor to injuries in mining while labor utilization was the highest potential contributor in construction. In manufacturing each effect had a similar association with injuries. The incidence of workplace injury is associated with the business cycle. However, the degree of association and the mechanisms through with the business cycle affects the incidence of workplace injuries was not the same across industries. The results suggest that firms in the construction, manufacturing, and mining industries should take additional precautionary safety measures during cyclical upturns. Potential differences among industries in the mechanisms through which the business cycle affects injury incidence suggest different protective strategies for those industries. For example, in construction, additional efforts might be undertaken to ensure workers are adequately trained and not excessively fatigued, while safety procedures continue to be followed even during boom times. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Changes in Cycling and Incidence of Overweight and Obesity among Danish Men and Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Martin G; Overvad, Kim; Tjønneland, Anne


    cycling habits. Also, bodyweight and waist circumference was measured by a lab technician at baseline and self-assessed at second examination. We computed multivariable adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for development of and remission from abdominal and general overweight...... was to investigate incidence of remission from overweight and obesity according to five-year cycling habits. METHODS: We analyzed 9014 men and 8661 women without chronic disease who between 1993 and 2003 completed two assessments approximately five years apart. At both assessments participants reported habitual......, those who continued cycling had significantly larger decreases in waist circumference relative to non-cyclists (β-coefficient (95% CI): -0,95 cm (-1,56 cm,-0,33 cm). CONCLUSION: Continued cycling compared to no cycling was associated with lower odds for abdominal and general obesity. Also, late-in-life...

  9. High incidence and severity of injection site reactions in the first cycle compared with subsequent cycles of subcutaneous bortezomib. (United States)

    Kamimura, Tomohiko; Miyamoto, Toshihiro; Yokota, Noriko; Aoki, Takatoshi; Ito, Yoshikiyo; Akashi, Koichi


    Subcutaneous (sc) administration of bortezomib (Bor) has become more common than intravenous (iv) administration in the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM), because scBor results in a lower incidence and severity of peripheral neuropathy and shows efficacy equivalent to ivBor. Bor is an irritant cytotoxic agent when it extravasates from the vasculature. Therefore, it is recommended that sc injections of Bor should be delivered on a rotating basis across eight sites on the abdomen and thighs. Previously, we reported that sc injections of Bor in the abdomen caused fewer grade 2 injection site reactions (ISRs) than those in the thigh. In the present study, we recruited more patients and expanded the scale of our analysis into ISRs following treatment with 300 scBor injections in 20 patients. ISRs of ≥grade 2 were documented in 12 of 109 (11.0 %) thigh injections, but only in three of 191 (1.6 %) abdominal injections (p ISRs of ≥grade 2 occurred more frequently in the first cycle than in the second and subsequent cycles (16.3 vs. 0.91 %, p ISR management, particularly with regard to the first cycle of scBor administration in the thigh. To our knowledge, this is the first report showing that ≥grade 2 ISRs are more common in the first cycle compared with subsequent cycles of scBor in the treatment of MM.

  10. Incidence of Dentinal Defects and Vertical Root Fractures after Endodontic Retreatment and Mechanical Cycling. (United States)

    De Carlo Bello, Mariana; Pillar, Rafael; Mastella Lang, Pauline; Michelon, Carina; Abreu da Rosa, Ricardo; Souza Bier, Carlos Alexandre


    The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of dentinal defects and vertical root fractures (VRFs) after endodontic retreatment and mechanical cycling (MC). Two hundred mandibular premolars were selected. Forty teeth were left unprepared (control group). The remaining 160 root canals were prepared with ProTaper instruments and filled by using two different techniques [eighty with lateral compaction (LC) and eighty with single-cone (SC)]. Forty canals from each group (LC and SC) received no further treatment. The remaining eighty teeth were divided into two groups (LCR and SCR) ( n =40) in order to undergo the removal of the root filling, re-preparation and refilling with lateral compaction and single-cone, respectively. All of the teeth were subjected to MC (1000000 cycles, 130 N, 2.2 Hz and 37 ° C). The roots were sectioned at 3, 6 and 9 mm from the apex and observed under 20× magnification. The defects were classified as: no defect, VRF and other defects . Statistical analysis was performed using the Fisher's Exact test and the Chi -Squared tests ( α =0.05). MC alone did not promote any other defects or VRFs. Experimental groups presented higher dentinal defects than the control group ( P =0.021). Retreatment groups did not present a higher amount of dentinal defects than the groups that were subjected to the first treatment ( P >0.05). Endodontic treatment and retreatment, regardless of the filling technique and MC, did not influence the occurrence of dentinal defects or VRFs in the human premolars.

  11. The Effects of Implementing and Activating the Early Warning System on the Preparedness of Sari Imam Khomeini Hospital (RH in Disasters and Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahime Qassemi


    Conclusion: Sari Imam Khomeini Hospital (RH, was at poor level with regard to preparedness in disasters. However, the significant increase in preparedness after executing early warning system indicates the necessity of developing and implementing this system in other hospitals to increase their level of preparedness.

  12. Radiation warning system in Slovenia (ROSS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recognizing that a radiological accident may have a widespread effect, the Slovenian government has decided to establish an early warning system. The aim of it is to detect any incident (domestic or foreign) involving radioactivity as fast as possible, to initiate appropriate measures, and to give immediate warning to the population

  13. Early warning network of Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Three subnetworks: EIS NEK, RAMS, and ROS form the basis of the Slovenian early warning network, named ROSS, which is under construction. Its aim is to detect any domestic or foreign incident where radioactive material was spread into environment. The system is planned to be completed in five years. (author)

  14. Mobile phone use while cycling : Incidence and effects on behaviour and safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Waard, D.; Schepers, P.; Ormel, W.; Brookhuis, K.A.


    The effects of mobile phone use on cycling behaviour were studied. In study 1, the prevalence of mobile phone use while cycling was assessed. In Groningen 2.2% of cyclists were observed talking on their phone and 0.6% were text messaging or entering a phone number. In study 2, accident-involved

  15. Mobile phone use while cycling: incidence and effects on behaviour and safety. (United States)

    de Waard, Dick; Schepers, Paul; Ormel, Wieke; Brookhuis, Karel


    The effects of mobile phone use on cycling behaviour were studied. In study 1, the prevalence of mobile phone use while cycling was assessed. In Groningen 2.2% of cyclists were observed talking on their phone and 0.6% were text messaging or entering a phone number. In study 2, accident-involved cyclists responded to a questionnaire. Only 0.5% stated that they were using their phone at the time of the accident. In study 3, participants used a phone while cycling. The content of the conversation was manipulated and participants also had to enter a text message. Data were compared with just cycling and cycling while listening to music. Telephoning coincided with reduced speed, reduced peripheral vision performance and increased risk and mental effort ratings. Text messaging had the largest negative impact on cycling performance. Higher mental workload and lower speed may account for the relatively low number of people calling involved in accidents. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Although perhaps mainly restricted to flat countries with a large proportion of cyclists, mobile phone use while cycling has increased and may be a threat to traffic safety, similar to phone use while driving a car. In this study, the extent of the problem was assessed by observing the proportion of cyclists using mobile phones, sending questionnaires to accident-involved cyclists and an experimental study was conducted on the effects of mobile phone use while cycling.

  16. Mobile phone use while cycling: Incidence and effects on behaviour and safety


    De Waard, D.; Schepers, P.; Ormel, W.; Brookhuis, K.A.


    The effects of mobile phone use on cycling behaviour were studied. In study 1, the prevalence of mobile phone use while cycling was assessed. In Groningen 2.2% of cyclists were observed talking on their phone and 0.6% were text messaging or entering a phone number. In study 2, accident-involved cyclists responded to a questionnaire. Only 0.5% stated that they were using their phone at the time of the accident. In study 3, participants used a phone while cycling. The content of the conversatio...

  17. Use of Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles to decrease incidence of neonatal hypothermia in the labor room. (United States)

    Shaw, Subhash Chandra; Devgan, Amit; Anila, Sushila; Anushree, Neha; Debnath, Himadri


    Body temperature of a neonate continues to be under-documented, under-recognized, and under-managed, even though studies have shown that neonatal hypothermia increases mortality and morbidity. We aimed to reduce neonatal hypothermia (body temperature improvement (QI) initiative using the rapid-cycle Plan-Do-Study-Act approach (PDSA) improvement model and the project was conducted from 15 Jan 2017 to 25 Feb 2017. All singleton neonates with gestational ages above 34 completed weeks born by vaginal delivery were targeted. Exclusion criteria included neonates needing any form of resuscitation, those developing respiratory distress after birth needing any form of respiratory support or observation in NICU. We ran PDSA cycles (including pre-warmed cloths, skin to skin care with mother, early breast feeding, delaying weight check by 1 h and checklist of planned steps), every week, after taking the baseline data in the first week. A total of 46 neonates were studied. After 4 PDSA cycles, incidence of neonatal hypothermia at 1 h of birth dropped to zero from 50% at baseline and we were able to sustain 100% normal temperature (36.5-37.5 °C) since then. This QI project has significantly reduced the incidence of hypothermia in term and late preterm neonates born by vaginal delivery in our institute.

  18. Incidence of remuneration to capital on the colombian business cycle from 1980 to 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio César Chamorro Futinico


    Full Text Available The business cycle was one of the most important issues in the economic agendafrom the late 19th Century to the mid 20th Century. The importance of the studylay in the priority of finding the causes and duration of economic crisis, and tobe able to determine or predict how often they would happen. Currently, and with the recent financial crisis in the United States (2008 and in Colombia(1998-2009, among others, this study has gained importance once more. Thispaper presents a number of points of view on the matter and focuses on an approach that has been given very little consideration: Michal Kalecki’s theory,which provides a basis for analyzing the Colombian business cycle from 1980to 2005, and thus compare the model estimated through the Three-Stage LeastSquares (3SLS method with the behavior of the remuneration to capital during the same period. Based on this, a close relation is found between the latter, the decision to invest and, therefore, the declining phase of the business cycle.

  19. Warning systems and public warning response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sorensen, J.H.


    This background paper reviews current knowledge on warning systems and human response to warnings. It expands on an earlier paper prepared for a workshop on the Second Assessment on Natural Hazards, held in Estes Park, Colorado in July 1992. Although it has a North American perspective, many of the lessons learned are universally applicable. The paper addresses warning systems in terms of dissemination and does not cover physical science issues associated with prediction and forecast. Finally, it covers hazards with relatively short lead times -- 48 hours or less. It does not address topics such as long-term forecasts of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions or early famine warning systems.

  20. Warning Signs After Birth (United States)

    ... care > Warning signs after birth Warning signs after birth E-mail to a friend Please fill in ... health problems new moms may have after giving birth? Chances are that you’ll be healthy after ...

  1. The investigation of early warning signs of aggression in forensic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frans Fluttert; prof Berno van Meijel; Mieke Grypdonck; Bjørkly Stal; Mirjan van Leeuwen


    Aims and objectives. The Forensic Early Warning Signs of Aggression Inventory (FESAI) was developed to assist nurses and patients in identifying early warning signs and constructing individual early detection plans (EDP) for the prevention of aggressive incidents. The aims of this research were as

  2. WISE 2005-2006: 60-days of Head-Down Bed Rest Increases the Incidence of Menstrual Cycle Disruption (United States)

    Wade, Charles

    Objective: It has been suggested that acute bed rest of short duration (11 days) disrupts the menstrual cycle of healthy subjects. Furthermore, use of countermeasures such as heavy exercise or dietary manipulations may adversely effect the menstrual cycle. We hypothesized that bed rest of 60 days and the use of countermeasures would increase the incidence of disruption of the menstrual cycle (MC). Methods: Twenty-four healthy subjects with a mean age of 32±0.8 yr, body mass of 59±0.8 kg and MC lengths of 25-32 days were enrolled. Three months prior to the study subjects did not use hormonal birth control methods. Subjects were assigned to one of three groups (n=8 per group): control, exercise countermeasures, and dietary countermeasures. MC lengthening was defined as an increase in duration of 10 or more days. Analysis was performed accounting for the effects of bedrest as well as treatment group. Results: Effects of countermeasures were not significant in the present analysis. After the conclusion of the study, subjects were classified as either normal (N; n=16) or oligomenorrhea (O; n=8) as determined by MC length during the pre-bed rest (PB) and bed rest (BR) periods. During the control period prior to bed rest one subject (4%) had an increase MC length. During the control period the average MC length was 31±0.8 days with a leutinizing hormone (LH) surge 12±0.8 days prior to menses. The duration of menses was 4±0.4 days. During BR there was an increase to 33% (p¡0.05) in the number of subjects having MC lengthening. In these subjects the mean length was increased from 31±0.9 to 62±8.2 days (p¡0.05). There was no change in the period from the LH surge prior to the next menses, 11±0.8 days, or duration of menses, 4±0.2 days. Plasma LH, follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), prolacin (PRL), progesterone (PRG), estradiol (E2), dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S), aldosterone (Aldo), testosterone (T) and cortisol (C) were measured during PB, BR, early

  3. Perception and Strategic Warning. (United States)


    N-i273-AF November 1979 PERCEPTION AND STRATEGIC WARNING Edmund Brunner, Jr. A Rand Note pepared for the Unid Statu Ar Fom IRand( A FO"WD PUSLIC...had, falsely or not, perceived a condition of strategic warning? Histories of crises and wars provide some useful evidence on such questions , but the...perception of strategic warning in their minds is not a completely open-or-shut question . There are hazards along the trail. IV. INFORMATION COLLECTION

  4. Maternal early warning systems. (United States)

    Friedman, Alexander M


    This article reviews evidence and recommendations for maternal early warning systems designed to reduce severe maternal morbidity and mortality. The clinical rationale for these systems is discussed as is research literature on early warning systems from other fields. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. New radiation warning sign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mac Kenzie, C.; Mason, C.


    Full text: Radiation accidents involving orphan radioactive sources have happened as a result of people not recognizing the radiation trefoil symbol or from being illiterate and not understanding a warning statement on the radiation source. The trefoil symbol has no inherent meaning to people that have not been instructed in its use. A new radiation warning sign, to supplement the existing trefoil symbol, has been developed to address these issues. Human Factors experts, United Nations member states, and members of the international community of radiation protection professionals were consulted for input on the design of a new radiation warning sign that would clearly convey the message of 'Danger- Run Away- Stay Away' when in close proximity to a dangerous source of radiation. Cultural differences of perception on various warning symbols were taken into consideration and arrays of possible signs were developed. The signs were initially tested in international children for identification with the desired message and response. Based on these test results and further input from radiation protection professionals, five warning signs were identified as the most successful in conveying the desired message and response. These five signs were tested internationally in eleven countries by a professional survey company to determine the best sign for this purpose. The conclusion of the international testing is presented. The new radiation warning sign is currently a draft ISO standard under committee review. The design of the propose d radiation warning sign and the proposed implementation strategy outlined in the draft ISO standard is presented. (authors)

  6. Proposal of resolution to create an inquiry commission on the french nuclear power plants reliability in case or earthquakes and on the safety, information and warning procedures in case of incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This short paper presents the reasons of the creation of parliamentary inquiry commission of 30 members, on the reliability of the nuclear power plants in France in case of earthquakes and on the safety, information and warning procedures in case of accidents. (A.L.B.)

  7. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display (United States)

    ... NWS Watch, Warning, Advisory Display NWS Warnings and Advisories on this map become active links to IWIN ... Flood Watch Coastal/Flood Warning Small Stream Flood Advisory Blizzard Warning Winter Storm Watch Winter Storm Warning ...

  8. Training warning flags

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Richard C.


    Problems in accredited training programmes at US nuclear stations have resulted in several programmes having their accreditation status designated as probationary. A limited probationary period allows time for problem resolution before the programmes are again reviewed by the National Nuclear Accrediting Board. A careful study of these problems has resulted in the identification of several 'Training Warning Flags' that singularly, or in concert, may indicate or predict degraded training programme effectiveness. These training warning flags have been used by several US nuclear stations as a framework for self-assessments, as a reference in making changes to training programmes, and as a tool in considering student and management feedback on training activities. Further analysis and consideration of the training warning flags has developed precursors for each of the training warning flags. Although more subjective than the training warning flags, the precursors may represent early indicators of factors that may lead to or contribute to degraded training programme effectiveness. Used as evaluative tools, the training warning flags and the precursors may help identify areas for improvements in training programmes and help prioritize training programme improvement efforts. (author)

  9. Using warnings to reduce categorical false memories in younger and older adults. (United States)

    Carmichael, Anna M; Gutchess, Angela H


    Warnings about memory errors can reduce their incidence, although past work has largely focused on associative memory errors. The current study sought to explore whether warnings could be tailored to specifically reduce false recall of categorical information in both younger and older populations. Before encoding word pairs designed to induce categorical false memories, half of the younger and older participants were warned to avoid committing these types of memory errors. Older adults who received a warning committed fewer categorical memory errors, as well as other types of semantic memory errors, than those who did not receive a warning. In contrast, young adults' memory errors did not differ for the warning versus no-warning groups. Our findings provide evidence for the effectiveness of warnings at reducing categorical memory errors in older adults, perhaps by supporting source monitoring, reduction in reliance on gist traces, or through effective metacognitive strategies.

  10. Cough once for danger: icons versus abstract warnings as informative alerts in civil aviation. (United States)

    Perry, Nathan C; Stevens, Catherine J; Wiggins, Mark W; Howell, Clare E


    An experiment investigated the efficacy of auditory icons as warning signals in an aviation context. Iconic signals, such as a cough to signal dangerous levels of carbon monoxide, convey information about the nature of an incident and alert the operator that there is a problem, whereas signals that are arbitrarily associated with a critical incident provide relatively less information. Warning recognition speed and accuracy are likely to be influenced by modality of presentation (visual, auditory, auditory + visual) and task demand (low, high). The 172 participants completed a computer-based training session and test task that involved responding to abstract or iconic auditory (1 s), visual, or auditory + visual warnings associated with seven critical incidents while performing low- and high-demand concurrent tasks. Significantly fewer training trials were required to learn iconic warnings than abstract warnings. An advantage for iconic warnings persisted into the test phase, evident most consistently as greater warning recognition accuracy. The effect was observed in both high- and low-demand conditions. Auditory abstract warnings, in particular, elicited slow reaction times and poor accuracy. Associations between a small number of meaningful environmental sounds and critical incidents can be learned with ease relative to more abstract associations, although training is required and response times are relatively slow. Sets of distinctive auditory iconic warnings can be designed to alert and inform pilots about non-time-pressured events. Potential applications of language-neutral icons as informative warnings include civil, commercial, and defense aircraft.

  11. Warnings from the Trenches (United States)

    Bernstein, Kenneth


    The author, as a retired high school teacher, has some bad news for college professors. In case, they do not already see what is happening. The author wants to warn them of what to expect from the students who will be arriving in one's classroom even if they teach in a highly selective institution. No Child Left Behind went into effect for the…

  12. Earthquake Early Warning Systems


    Pei-Yang Lin


    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  13. Quake warnings, seismic culture (United States)

    Allen, Richard M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Huggins, Tom; Miles, Scott; Otegui, Diego


    Since 1990, nearly one million people have died from the impacts of earthquakes. Reducing those impacts requires building a local seismic culture in which residents are aware of earthquake risks and value efforts to mitigate harm. Such efforts include earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that provide seconds to minutes notice of pending shaking. Recent events in Mexico provide an opportunity to assess performance and perception of an EEW system and highlight areas for further improvement. We have learned that EEW systems, even imperfect ones, can help people prepare for earthquakes and build local seismic culture, both beneficial in reducing earthquake-related losses.

  14. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.


    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  15. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time. (United States)


    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be tested for the prescribed warning time at least once every 12 months and when the warning system is...

  16. Highway-rail intersection GPS-based in-vehicle warning systems - literature review and recommendations. (United States)


    In 2008, there were 2,395 incidents at highway-rail intersections (level crossings) in the United States, resulting in 939 injuries and 287 fatalities. Crossing elimination, grade separation, and the implementation of traditional warning devices are ...

  17. An organizational early-warning system for safety, health, and environmental crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Early-warning systems have played an important role in preventing major industrial accidents and technological disasters. These systems record critical operating and performance parameters and raise warnings or alarms if these parameters cross acceptable limits. Most early-warning systems used in hazardous industries focus on the technological system and to a lesser extent on their human operators. However, industrial disasters are caused not only by technological and human failure, but also by organizational, regulatory, infrastructural, and community preparedness failures. Hazardous industries can benefit from the development of early-warning systems that have a broader scope than the core technology. These systems could cover financial, human resource, organizational policies, regulatory, infrastructural, and community-related variables. This paper develops some basic concepts that can help build managerially useful early-warning systems for safety, health, and environmental (SHE) incidents. It identifies variables that should be tracked, the threshold levels for these variables, and possible managerial reactions to warnings

  18. Connected motorcycle crash warning interfaces. (United States)


    Crash warning systems have been deployed in the high-end vehicle market segment for some time and are trickling down to additional motor vehicle industry segments each year. The motorcycle segment, however, has no deployed crash warning system to dat...

  19. Modeling the relationship between precipitation and malaria incidence in children from a holoendemic area in Ghana. (United States)

    Krefis, Anne Caroline; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Krüger, Andreas; Fobil, Julius; Nkrumah, Bernard; Acquah, Samuel; Loag, Wibke; Sarpong, Nimako; Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw; Ranft, Ulrich; May, Jürgen


    Climatic factors influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. They modify the abundance of mosquito populations, the length of the extrinsic parasite cycle in the mosquito, the malarial dynamics, and the emergence of epidemics in areas of low endemicity. The objective of this study was to investigate temporal associations between weekly malaria incidence in 1,993 children < 15 years of age and weekly rainfall. A time series analysis was conducted by using cross-correlation function and autoregressive modeling. The regression model showed that the level of rainfall predicted the malaria incidence after a time lag of 9 weeks (mean = 60 days) and after a time lag between one and two weeks. The analyses provide evidence that high-resolution precipitation data can directly predict malaria incidence in a highly endemic area. Such models might enable the development of early warning systems and support intervention measures.

  20. Incidence of depression and influence of depression on the number of treatment cycles and births in a national cohort of 42,880 women treated with ART. (United States)

    Sejbaek, C S; Hageman, I; Pinborg, A; Hougaard, C O; Schmidt, L


    Does prior depression in women treated with assisted reproduction technology (ART) influence the number of treatment cycles and ART live births? Women with a depression diagnosis prior to ART treatment initiated statistically significantly fewer ART treatment cycles and had a lower mean number of ART live births compared with women with no history of depression. Previous studies have shown an increased prevalence of depressive symptoms in fertility patients than in the comparison groups. A register-based national cohort study, including all women (n = 42,915) treated with IVF, ICSI, frozen embryo transfer and oocyte recipient cycle in Denmark from 1 January 1994 to 30 September 2009 extracted from the IVF register (ART cohort). Data on births and depression diagnoses were obtained by linking to the Danish Medical Birth Register (1994-2010) and the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register (1969-2010). For each woman in the ART cohort, we included five age-matched women from the female background population not having received ART treatment. This comparison group was cross-linked with identical register data as the ART cohort. Women with incomplete ART information or a depression diagnosis before 18 years of age were excluded; remaining n = 42,880. The ART cohort was grouped into (i) women with a depression diagnosis and (ii) women never diagnosed with depression. In the ART group with depression, analyses were specified on women with their first depression prior to ART treatment. In total, 2.6% of the women in the ART cohort had a depression diagnosis. For the incidence rate ratio (IRR) 39,194 women from the ART cohort (3686 women were excluded due to migration) were compared with 206,005 women from the age-matched comparison group who did not receive ART treatment. Of the women in the ART cohort with a depression diagnosis, 34.7% had their first depression diagnosis prior to ART treatment, 4.7% during ART treatment and 60.7% after ART treatment. The mean number

  1. Incidence, disease onset and short-term outcome in urea cycle disorders -cross-border surveillance in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. (United States)

    Nettesheim, Susanne; Kölker, Stefan; Karall, Daniela; Häberle, Johannes; Posset, Roland; Hoffmann, Georg F; Heinrich, Beate; Gleich, Florian; Garbade, Sven F


    Urea cycle disorders (UCDs) are a group of rare inherited metabolic disorders. Affected individuals often present with hyperammonemic encephalopathy (HE) and have an increased risk of severe neurologic disease and early death. The study aims to provide epidemiologic data and to describe the disease manifestation and short-term outcome. Cross-border surveillance of newly diagnosed patients with UCDs - below 16 years of age - was performed from July 2012 to June 2015 in Germany and Austria and from January 2012 to December 2015 in Switzerland. Inquiries were sent monthly to all Pediatric Departments in Germany and Switzerland, and quarterly to the Austrian Metabolic Group. In addition, data were collected via a second source (metabolic laboratories) in all three countries. Between July 2012 and June 2015, fifty patients (Germany: 39, Austria: 7, Switzerland: 4) with newly diagnosed UCDs were reported and later confirmed resulting in an estimated cumulative incidence of 1 in 51,946 live births. At diagnosis, thirty-nine patients were symptomatic and 11 asymptomatic [10 identified by newborn screening (NBS), 1 by high-risk-family screening (HRF)]. The majority of symptomatic patients (30 of 39 patients) developed HE with (n = 25) or without coma (n = 5), 28 of them with neonatal onset. Despite emergency treatment 15 of 30 patients with HE already died during the newborn period. Noteworthy, 10 of 11 patients diagnosed by NBS or HRF remained asymptomatic. Comparison with the European registry and network for intoxication type metabolic diseases (E-IMD) demonstrated that cross-national surveillance identified a higher number of clinically severe UCD patients characterized by earlier onset of symptoms, higher peak ammonium concentrations in plasma and higher mortality. Cross-border surveillance is a powerful tool to identify patients with UCDs demonstrating that (1) the cumulative incidence of UCDs is lower than originally suggested, (2) the mortality rate is still

  2. Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults. (United States)

    Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L


    weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  3. Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor (United States)

    Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.


    Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronak Shah


    Full Text Available This work precisely evaluates whether browser security warnings are as ineffective as proposed by popular sentiments and past writings. This research used different kinds of Android mobile browsers as well as desktop browsers to evaluate security warnings. Security experts and developers should give emphasis on making a user aware of security warnings and should not neglect aim of communicating this to users. Security experts and system architects should emphasis the goal of communicating security information to end users. In most of the browsers, security warnings are not emphasized, and browsers simply do not show warnings, or there are a number of ways to hide those warnings of malicious sites. This work precisely finds that how inconsistent browsers really are in prompting security warnings. In particular, majority of the modern mobile web browsers are vulnerable to these security threats. We find inconsistency in SSL warnings among web browsers. Based on this work, we make recommendations for warning designers and researchers.

  5. Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67 (United States)

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.


    Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

  6. Impact of a warning CPOE system on the inappropriate pill splitting of prescribed medications in outpatients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Chen Hsu

    Full Text Available Prescribing inappropriate pill splitting is not rare in clinical practice. To reduce inappropriate pill splitting, we developed an automatic warning system linked to a computerized physician order entry (CPOE system for special oral formulation drugs in outpatient settings. We examined the impact of the warning system on inappropriate prescribing of pill splitting and assess prescribers' responses to the warnings.Drugs with extended-release or enteric-coated formulations that were not originally intended to be split were recognized as "special oral formulations". A hard-stop system which could examine non-integer doses of drugs with special oral formulations, provide warnings to interrupt inappropriate prescriptions was integrated in CPOE in a medical center since June 2010. We designed an intervention study to compare the inappropriate splitting before and after the implementation of the warning system (baseline period 2010 January to May vs. intervention period 2010 June to 2011 August. During the intervention period, prescription changes in response to a warning were logged and analyzed.A total of 470,611 prescribed drug items with 34 different drugs with special oral formulations were prescribed in the study period. During the 15-month intervention period, 909 warnings for 26 different drugs were triggered among 354,523 prescribed drug items with special oral formulations. The warning rate of inappropriate splitting in the late intervention period was lower than those in baseline period (0.16% vs. 0.61%, incidence rate ratio 0.27, 95% CI 0.23-0.31, P<0.001. In respond to warnings, physicians had to make adjustments, of which the majority was changing to an unsplit pill (72.9%.The interruptive warning system could avoid the prescriptions with inappropriate pill splitting. Accordingly, physicians changed their behavior of prescribing special oral formulations regarding inappropriate pill splitting. We suggest the establishment of such system

  7. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning System (United States)

    Alcik, H.; Mert, A.; Ozel, O.; Erdik, M.


    As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) are compared with specified threshold levels. When any acceleration or CAV (on any channel) in a given station exceeds specific threshold values it is considered a vote. Whenever we have 2 station votes within selectable time interval, after the first vote, the first alarm is declared. In order to specify the appropriate threshold levels a data set of near field strong ground motions records form Turkey and the world has been analyzed. Correlations among these thresholds in terms of the epicenter distance the magnitude of the earthquake have been studied. The encrypted early warning signals will be communicated to the respective end users. Depending on the location of the earthquake (initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient facility the alarm time can be as high as about 8s. The first users of the early warning signal will be the Istanbul gas company (IGDAS) and the metro line using the immersed tube tunnel (MARMARAY). Other prospective users are power plants and power distribution systems, nuclear research facilities, critical chemical factories, petroleum facilities and high-rise buildings. In this study, different algorithms based on PGA, CAV and various definitions of instrumental intensity will be discussed and triggering threshold levels of these parameters will be studied

  8. Incorporating Hydroepidemiology into the Epidemia Malaria Early Warning System (United States)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.


    Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. EPIDEMIA incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. The system will enable forecasts that incorporate lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distributions of stagnant water bodies is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates, evapotranspiration (ET) calculated using a simplified surface energy balance model, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave radiometry. We used partial least squares regression to analyze and visualize seasonal patterns of these variables in relation to malaria cases using data from 49 districts in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Seasonal patterns of rainfall were strongly associated with the incidence and seasonality of malaria across the region, and model fit was improved by the addition of remotely-sensed ET and soil moisture variables. The results highlight the importance of remotely-sensed hydrological data for modeling malaria risk in this region and emphasize the value of an ensemble approach that utilizes multiple sources of information about precipitation and land surface wetness. These variables will be incorporated into the forecasting models at

  9. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Storm Wallets (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is responsible for typhoon forecasts and warnings for the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. After each storm, the JTWC...

  10. Fact Sheet: Early Warning Signs of Psychosis (United States)

    ... items) Share Fact Sheet: Early Warning Signs of Psychosis Download PDF Download ePub Order a free hardcopy ... show changes in his or her behaviors before psychosis develops. The list below includes several warning signs ...

  11. Alcohol warnings in TV beer advertisements. (United States)

    Slater, M D; Domenech, M M


    Mandated warnings are among the few steps Congress has taken to influence the use of legal substances such as alcohol. The usefulness of such warnings in discouraging abuse of alcohol is, however, controversial. This study examines the impact of televised warnings on probable antecedents of belief change not examined in previous research: confidence in beliefs about beer risks or benefits, and cognitive responses to the advertisements. The present study (N = 75 male and female college students) tests four of the warnings recommended in Senate Bill 674 (1993--the "Thurmond bill") edited into randomly sampled television beer advertisements, using a between-subjects treatment-and-control experimental design. The four advertisements or advertisement/warning pairs were counterbalanced and analyzed as a repeated measures factor. The study indicated, as hypothesized, that subjects exposed to warnings tended to have less confidence in their generally skeptical assessments of beer risks--a likely precursor to belief change in resistant populations. Repeated exposure to the advertisements alone also appeared to lead to increased confidence in generally positive assessments of beer benefits, whereas repeated exposure to warnings led to decreased confidence in such assessments. Repeated exposure to warnings also may have primed negative reactions to subsequent beer advertisements. These results suggest mechanisms by which alcohol warnings may over time influence beliefs. Measures used here may serve as useful criterion variables in future studies on warnings. Further attention to optimizing warning content and presentation is recommended.

  12. The history of Belgian assisted reproduction technology cycle registration and control: a case study in reducing the incidence of multiple pregnancy. (United States)

    De Neubourg, D; Bogaerts, K; Wyns, C; Albert, A; Camus, M; Candeur, M; Degueldre, M; Delbaere, A; Delvigne, A; De Sutter, P; Dhont, M; Dubois, M; Englert, Y; Gillain, N; Gordts, S; Hautecoeur, W; Lesaffre, E; Lejeune, B; Leroy, F; Ombelet, W; Perrier D'Hauterive, S; Vandekerckhove, F; Van der Elst, J; D'Hooghe, T


    What is the effect of a legal limitation of the number of embryos that can be transferred in an assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycle on the multiple delivery rate? The Belgian national register shows that the introduction of reimbursement of ART laboratory costs in July 2003, and the imposition of a legal limitation of the number of embryos transferred in the same year, were associated with a >50% reduction of the multiple pregnancy rate from 27 to 11% between 2003 and the last assessment in 2010, without any reduction of the pregnancy rate per cycle. Individual Belgian IVF centres have published their results since the implementation of the law, and these show a decrease in the multiple pregnancy rate on a centre by centre basis. However, the overall national picture remains unpublished. Cohort study from 1990 to 2010 of all ART cycles in Belgium (2685 cycles in 1990 evolving to 19 110 cycles in 2010), with a retrospective analysis from 1990 to 2000 and prospective online data collection since 2001. Registration evolved from paper written reports per centre to a compulsory online registration of all ART cycles. From 2001 up to mid-2009, data were collected from Excel spread sheets or MS Access files into an MS Access database. Since mid-2009, data collection is done via a remote and secured web-based system ( where centres can upload their data and get immediate feedback about missing data, errors and inconsistencies. National Belgian registration data show that reimbursement of IVF laboratory costs in July 2003, coupled to a legal limitation in the number of embryos transferred in utero, were associated with a 50% reduction of the multiple pregnancy rate from 27 to 11% without reduction of the pregnancy rate per cycle, and with an increase in the number of fresh and frozen ART cycles due to improved access to treatment. There is potential underreporting of complications of ART treatment, pregnancy outcome and neonatal health. Over the 20

  13. Semantic congruency of auditory warnings. (United States)

    Isherwood, Sarah J; McKeown, Denis


    The aim of this study was to explore operator experience and performance for semantically congruent and incongruent auditory icons and abstract alarm sounds. It was expected that performance advantages for congruent sounds would be present initially but would reduce over time for both alarm types. Twenty-four participants (12M/12F) were placed into auditory icon or abstract alarm groupings. For each group both congruent and incongruent alarms were used to represent different driving task scenarios. Once sounded, participants were required to respond to each alarm by selecting a corresponding driving scenario. User performance for all sound types improved over time, however even with experience a decrement in speed of response remained for the incongruent iconic sounds and in accuracy of performance for the abstract warning sounds when compared to the congruent auditory icons. Semantic congruency was found to be of more importance for auditory icons than for abstract sounds. Practitioner Summary: Alarms are used in many operating systems as emergency, alerting, or continuous monitoring signals for instance. This study found that the type and representativeness of an auditory warning will influence operator performance over time. Semantically congruent iconic sounds produced performance advantages over both incongruent iconic sounds and abstract warnings.

  14. Monitoring and Warning of Landslides Based On Rainfall (United States)

    Yudhbir, Y.

    Management issues of landslide hazards assume much greater significance in poorest segments of society living in landslide risk prone hilly areas in developing countries. Analysis of the temporal recurrence of landslides shows that disastrous events occur with a frequency higher than the social and economic capacity of these societies to recover from previous events. In the context of landslide hazard management in In- dian Himalayan states this problem assumes much greater significance. Majority of the population lives on hill slopes which experience repeated landsliding activity es- pecially during the summer monsoon rains. Considering the high cost of structural control measures and the lack of necessary spatial database in respect of Quaternary geology, detailed topography and geohydrology etc., there is an acute need to develop a monitoring and warning system which is economical, easy to operate and does not require high technological inputs. Since most of the landslides in these areas are triggered by high incidence of rain, it appears attractive to explore development of a monitoring and warning network based on critical rainfall intensity thresholds. Such an option for management of landslide hazards would also provide useful meteorological data required for assessment of wa- ter resources, soil loss due to erosion, agricultural practices and flood incidence. In this paper, available approaches to the prediction and warning of landslide based on rainfall data will be critically reviewed. Various criteria recommended in litera- ture for threshold rainfall values in rain induced ground movements/failures would be compared and these relationships will be contrasted with the limited data available for the Indian Himalayan landslides. A plan for a network of automatic rain gauges and a suitable warning system will be discussed.

  15. Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things (United States)

    Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.


    In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Chengfang


    Full Text Available In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  17. Incidence of depression and influence of depression on the number of treatment cycles and births in a national cohort of 42 880 women treated with ART

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sejbaek, C S; Hageman, I; Pinborg, A


    STUDY QUESTION: Does prior depression in women treated with assisted reproduction technology (ART) influence the number of treatment cycles and ART live births? SUMMARY ANSWER: Women with a depression diagnosis prior to ART treatment initiated statistically significantly fewer ART treatment cycles...... and had a lower mean number of ART live births compared with women with no history of depression. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Previous studies have shown an increased prevalence of depressive symptoms in fertility patients than in the comparison groups. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A register-based national......-matched background population group; IRR = 0.80 (P hospital setting are included. The age-matched comparison group from the background population is heterogeneous as it consists of women...

  18. Evolution of an Early Illness Warning System to Monitor Frail Elders in Independent Living

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory L. Alexander


    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of an early illness warning system used by an interdisciplinary team composed of clinicians and engineers in an independent living facility. The early illness warning system consists of algorithms which analyze resident activity patterns obtained from sensors embedded in residents' apartments. The engineers designed an automated reasoning system to generate clinically relevant alerts which are sent to clinicians when significant changes occur in the sensor data, for example declining activity levels. During January 2010 through July 2010, clinicians and engineers conducted weekly iterative review cycles of the early illness warning system to discuss concerns about the functionality of the warning system, to recommend solutions for the concerns, and to evaluate the implementation of the solutions. A total of 45 concerns were reviewed during this period. Iterative reviews resulted in greater efficiencies and satisfaction for clinician users who were monitoring elder activity patterns.

  19. Vehicle Dynamics Approach to Driver Warning


    Ghoneim, Youssef A.


    This paper discusses a concept for enhanced active safety by introducing a driver warning system based on vehicle dynamics that predicts a potential loss of control condition prior to stability control activation. This real-time warning algorithm builds on available technologies such as the Electronic Stability Control (ESC). The driver warning system computes several indices based on yaw rate, side-slip velocity, and vehicle understeer using ESC sensor suite. An arbitrator block arbitrates b...

  20. Communicating risk information and warnings (United States)

    Mileti, D. S.


    Major advances have occurred over the last 20 years about how to effectively communicate risk information and warnings to the public. These lessons have been hard won. Knowledge has mounted on the finding from social scientific studies of risk communication failures, successes and those which fell somewhere in between. Moreover, the last 2 decades have borne witness to the brith, cultivation, and blossoming of information sharing between those physical scientists who discover new information about risk and those communcation scientists who trace its diffusion and then measure pbulic reaction. 

  1. Adult health study report 7. noncancer disease incidence in the atomic-bomb survivors, 1958-86 (examination cycles 1-14)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong F, Lennie; Yamada, Michiko; Sasaki, Hideo; Kodama, Kazunori; Akiba, Suminori; Shimaoka, Katsutaro; Hosoda, Yutaka.


    Using the longitudinal data of the Adult Health Study (AHS) cohort collected during 1958-86, we examined for the first time the relationship between exposure to ionizing radiation and the incidence of 19 selected nonmalignant disorders. Diagnoses of the diseases were based on general laboratory tests, physical examinations, and histories taken during the biennial AHS examinations. The outcomes were encoded as three-digit International Classification of Diseases codes in the AHS data base, which served as the basis for case ascertainment. Statistically significant excess risk was detected for myoma uteri, chronic hepatitis and liver cirrhosis, and thyroid disease, defined broadly as the presence of one or more of certain noncancerous thyroid conditions. The finding for myoma uteri might be additional evidence indicating that benign tumor growths are possible effects of radiation exposure. An age-at-exposure effect was detected in nonmalignant thyroid disease, with increased risk for those exposed at ages ≤ 20 yr, but not for older persons. Thus, the AHS data also suggest that the thyroid gland in young persons is more radiosensitive not only to the development of thyroid malignancies, as shown in the most recent LSS report on cancer incidence, but also possibly to the development of nonmalignant disorders. Our findings hold independent of the dose effects observed for thyroid malignancies. No significant dose-response relationships were detected in any of our cardiovascular disease endpoints. Our analysis also suggests that new occurrences of lens opacity during 1958-86 are not increased with radiation dose among the AHS participants. Our results emphasize the utility and importance of the AHS in searching for the effects of acute exposure to ionizing radiation in noncancer diseases. (J.P.N.)

  2. Pictorial warnings on cigarette packets: Effectiveness and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pictorial warnings and their ability to reduce the prevalence of cigarette smoking among youth in Egypt. Through semi-structured in-depth interviews with a sample of cigarette smokers, the research argues that various social, cultural, and economic factors constrain the effectiveness of pictorial warnings. A key finding is that ...

  3. Incidence of Vibrio cholerae and related vibrios in a coastal lagoon and seawater influenced by lake discharges along an annual cycle. (United States)

    Garay, E; Arnau, A; Amaro, C


    Most probable numbers of Vibrio cholerae and related vibrios were determined in Albufera Lake, Valencia, Spain, and in coastal waters under the influence of the lake discharges over the course of an annual cycle. The influence of temperature, kind of water, and characteristics of the different sampling sites on the numbers of vibrios recovered was evaluated. Maximum recovery of vibrios reached 10(3)/ml in both types of waters analyzed. V. cholerae numbers reached 10(3)/ml in the lake and 10(2) in one of the coastal sites. Frequently during the warm season, all vibrios isolated were identified as V. cholerae. Occasionally, no V. cholerae was recovered. The recovery of vibrios was significantly influenced by the temperature of the water and the type of water analyzed. Most of the V. cholerae isolates were included in Heiberg groups I and II, and nearly 50% of the strains used chitin as sole carbon source. Indole was not produced by 100% of the strains. All strains tested were non-O1 serovars.

  4. Alcohol Warning Label Perceptions: Do Warning Sizes and Plain Packaging Matter? (United States)

    Al-Hamdani, Mohammed; Smith, Steven M


    There is a dearth of research on the effectiveness of stringent alcohol warning labels. Our experiment tested whether increasing the size of an alcohol health warning lowers product-based ratings. We examined whether plain packaging lowers ratings of alcohol products and the consumers who use them, increases ratings of bottle "boringness," and enhances warning recognition compared with branded packaging. A total of 440 adults (51.7% female) viewed one of three warning sizes (50%, 75%, or 90% of label surface) on either a plain or branded bottle of distilled spirits, wine, and beer. Participants also rated alcohol bottles on product-based (assessing the product itself), consumer-based (assessing perceptions of consumers of the product), and bottle boringness ratings, and then attempted to recognize the correct warning out of four choices. As expected, the size of warning labels lowered product-based ratings. Similarly, plain packaging lowered product-based and consumer-based ratings and increased bottle boringness but only for wine bottles. Further, plain packaging increased the odds of warning recognition on bottles of distilled spirits. This study shows that plain packaging and warning size (similar to the graphic warnings on cigarette packages) affect perceptions about alcohol bottles. It also shows that plain packaging increases the likelihood for correct health warning recognition, which builds the case for alcohol warning and packaging research and policy.

  5. Essential Oil Variability of Tetraclinis articulata (Vahl) Mast. Parts During Its Phenological Cycle and Incidence on the Antioxidant and Antimicrobial Activities. (United States)

    Djouahri, Abderrahmane; Saka, Boualem; Boudarene, Lynda; Lamari, Lynda; Sabaou, Nasserdine; Baaliouamer, Aoumeur


    The impact of phenological stages (vegetative, flowering and fruiting stages) on chemical composition, antioxidant, and antimicrobial activities of Tetraclinis articulata (Vahl) Mast. parts essential oils were investigated for the first time. GC and GC/MS analyses pointed to a quantitative variability of components; terpene hydrocarbons derivatives, represented by α-pinene (16.38 ± 0.19 - 31.78 ± 0.35%) and limonene (3.41 ± 0.07 - 9.49 ± 0.14%) as major components, predominate at the vegetative stage, whereas oxygenated derivatives, represented by camphor (16.11 ± 0.23 - 26.17 ± 0.29%) and bornyl acetate (15.21 ± 0.21 - 27.33 ± 0.33%) as major components, predominate at the fruiting stage. Furthermore, our findings showed that the plant parts collected at the fruiting stage possess the highest antioxidant activity and the best antimicrobial activity against the tested microorganisms, than plant parts collected at the vegetative and flowering stages. This highlighted variability reflects the high impact of phenological cycle on chemical composition and biological activities, which led to conclude that we should select essential oils to be investigated carefully depending on phenological stage, in order to have the highest effectiveness of essential oil in terms of biological activities for human health purposes. © 2017 Wiley-VHCA AG, Zurich, Switzerland.

  6. Effects of weather factors on dengue fever incidence and implications for interventions in Cambodia. (United States)

    Choi, Youngjo; Tang, Choon Siang; McIver, Lachlan; Hashizume, Masahiro; Chan, Vibol; Abeyasinghe, Rabindra Romauld; Iddings, Steven; Huy, Rekol


    Dengue viruses and their mosquito vectors are sensitive to their environment. Temperature, rainfall and humidity have well-defined roles in the transmission cycle. Therefore changes in these conditions may contribute to increasing incidence. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between weather factors and dengue incidence in three provinces in Cambodia, in order to strengthen the evidence basis of dengue control strategies in this high-burden country. We developed negative binomial models using monthly average maximum, minimum, mean temperatures and monthly cumulative rainfall over the period from January 1998 to December 2012. We adopted piecewise linear functions to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) between dengue incidence and weather factors for simplicity in interpreting the coefficients. We estimated the values of parameters below cut-points defined in terms of the results of sensitivity tests over a 0-3 month lagged period. Mean temperature was significantly associated with dengue incidence in all three provinces, but incidence did not correlate well with maximum temperature in Banteay Meanchey, nor with minimum temperature in Kampong Thom at a lag of three months in the negative binomial model. The monthly cumulative rainfall influence on the dengue incidence was significant in all three provinces, but not consistently over a 0-3 month lagged period. Rainfall significantly affected the dengue incidence at a lag of 0 to 3 months in Siem Reap, but it did not have an impact at a lag of 2 to 3 months in Banteay Meanchey, nor at a lag of 2 months in Kampong Thom. The association between dengue incidence and weather factors also apparently varies by locality, suggesting that a prospective dengue early warning system would likely be best implemented at a local or regional scale, rather than nation-wide in Cambodia. Such spatial down-scaling would also enable dengue control measures to be better targeted, timed and implemented.

  7. Effects of weather factors on dengue fever incidence and implications for interventions in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngjo Choi


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dengue viruses and their mosquito vectors are sensitive to their environment. Temperature, rainfall and humidity have well-defined roles in the transmission cycle. Therefore changes in these conditions may contribute to increasing incidence. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between weather factors and dengue incidence in three provinces in Cambodia, in order to strengthen the evidence basis of dengue control strategies in this high-burden country. Methods We developed negative binomial models using monthly average maximum, minimum, mean temperatures and monthly cumulative rainfall over the period from January 1998 to December 2012. We adopted piecewise linear functions to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR between dengue incidence and weather factors for simplicity in interpreting the coefficients. We estimated the values of parameters below cut-points defined in terms of the results of sensitivity tests over a 0-3 month lagged period. Results Mean temperature was significantly associated with dengue incidence in all three provinces, but incidence did not correlate well with maximum temperature in Banteay Meanchey, nor with minimum temperature in Kampong Thom at a lag of three months in the negative binomial model. The monthly cumulative rainfall influence on the dengue incidence was significant in all three provinces, but not consistently over a 0-3 month lagged period. Rainfall significantly affected the dengue incidence at a lag of 0 to 3 months in Siem Reap, but it did not have an impact at a lag of 2 to 3 months in Banteay Meanchey, nor at a lag of 2 months in Kampong Thom. Conclusions The association between dengue incidence and weather factors also apparently varies by locality, suggesting that a prospective dengue early warning system would likely be best implemented at a local or regional scale, rather than nation-wide in Cambodia. Such spatial down-scaling would also enable dengue control

  8. ATTACK WARNING: Costs to Modernize NORAD's Computer System Significantly Understated

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cross, F


    ...) Integrated Tactical Warning and Attack Assessment (ITW/AA) system. These subsystems provide critical strategic surveillance and attack warning and assessment information to United States and Canadian leaders...

  9. Vehicle Dynamics Approach to Driver Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssef A. Ghoneim


    Full Text Available This paper discusses a concept for enhanced active safety by introducing a driver warning system based on vehicle dynamics that predicts a potential loss of control condition prior to stability control activation. This real-time warning algorithm builds on available technologies such as the Electronic Stability Control (ESC. The driver warning system computes several indices based on yaw rate, side-slip velocity, and vehicle understeer using ESC sensor suite. An arbitrator block arbitrates between the different indices and determines the status index of the driving vehicle. The status index is compared to predetermined stability levels which correspond to high and low stability levels. If the index exceeds the high stability level, a warning signal (haptic, acoustic, or visual is issued to alert the driver of a potential loss of control and ESC activation. This alert will remain in effect until the index is less than the low stability level at which time the warning signal will be terminated. A vehicle speed advisory algorithm is integrated with the warning algorithm to provide a desired vehicle speed of a vehicle traveling on a curve. Simulation results and vehicle tests were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the warning algorithm.

  10. Are the warning icons more attentional? (United States)

    Tao, Jin; Yafeng, Niu; Lei, Zhou


    The rapid growth of attention to visual warnings is a representation of the adaptive behavior of humans. However, the ways warning icons attract attention in the cognition context has yet to be clarified. This research aims to investigate cognitive mechanism of warning icons under various perceptual loads. The results of Experiment A, whose average attentional capture effect of the warning icons (69 ms) was significantly higher than that of the ordinary icons (35 ms), show that compared with ordinary icons, warning icons are prioritized in processing under both high and low perceptual loads. Besides, the attention capturing abilities of non-target warning icons are the same under high and low perceptual loads. To isolate the effects of salient visual features and semantics, warning icons in Experiment B are replaced with transposed icons with saliency but no semantics. The attentional capture effect of warning icons is found to be significantly smaller under high load than under low load, so the effect in Experiment A can be attributed to the semantics of warning icons. In Experiment C the icons of negative and neutral semantics without salient frames are used as interfering stimuli, and the RT to the negative icons (823 ms) was longer than both the RT to the neutral icons (780 ms) and to the no interference icons (743 ms) (P icons have stronger attention capturing ability than neutral icons. This research verifies that the semantics of icons is vital, and icons with salient visual features and negative semantics can enhance attentional capture effect. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Recasting the warning-response problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, C.O.; Otto, F.; Brante, J.


    The paper takes stock of the debate about the so-called warning-response-gap regarding armed conflict within states. It argues that while the existing literature has focused strongly on "better prediction," it has neglected the analysis of the conditions under which warnings are being noticed......, accepted, prioritized and responded to by policy-makers. This has led to a simplistic understanding of how communicative, cognitive and political processes involving a range of actors can influence both the perception as well as the response to warnings. The paper also criticizes that many normative...

  12. Wheelchair incidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drongelen AW van; Roszek B; Hilbers-Modderman ESM; Kallewaard M; Wassenaar C; LGM


    This RIVM study was performed to gain insight into wheelchair-related incidents with powered and manual wheelchairs reported to the USA FDA, the British MDA and the Dutch Center for Quality and Usability Research of Technical Aids (KBOH). The data in the databases do not indicate that incidents with

  13. An early warning prediction scheme for solar proton events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solar proton events (SPEs) are preceded by the optical, radio, and X-ray emissions of solar flares. Thus the capability for providing early warning of SPEs is possible if the particle fluxes can be correlated with the electromagnetic signatures from the sun. Correlations of the peak proton flux at geosynchronous orbit with the solar X-ray emissions have been developed and refined using data collected by the GOES spacecraft and supplied by NOAA. Data from over most of solar cycle 21 and the early portion of cycle 22 have been used to extend the data base and improve the correlations. A power law relationship has been assumed between the peak proton flux and the X-ray fluence in both the 0.5-4 and 1-8 Angstrom bands of the GOES X-ray sensors. The correlation coefficients are approximately the same for both X-ray energy bands. 13 refs

  14. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2009) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  15. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2007) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  16. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2006) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  17. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2008) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  18. What Are the Warning Signs of Stroke? (United States)

    ... Cardiovascular Conditions What Are the Warning Signs of Stroke? Brain tissue affected by blockage Stroke is the fifth leading cause of death in ... over 55 years old have more chance of stroke, and the risk gets greater as you get ...

  19. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2011) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  20. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2010) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  1. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2005) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  2. Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN-2004) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is a nationally representative public health surveillance system that has monitored drug related emergency department (ED)...

  3. Using the PDSA Cycle for the Evaluation of Pointing and Calling Implementation to Reduce the Rate of High-Alert Medication Administration Incidents in the United Christian Hospital of Hong Kong, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lap Fung Tsang


    Full Text Available Introduction: The present study aimed to adopt a Plan-do-Study-Act (PDSA cycle to monitor the implementation of Pointing and Calling (P&C in the United Christian Hospital of Hong Kong, China. Materials and Methods: A workgroup was formed to evaluate the approaches to apply P&C in high-alert medication administration using infusion and syringe devices. A series of promulgations and strategies were implemented to increase the probability of its success and sustainability. In addition, pretest and posttest evaluation was performed to monitor the incident rate associated with high-alert medication administration using infusion and syringe devices. Results:Over 100 briefing sessions were conducted in the hospital wards, and 145 senior managers, ward managers, and advanced practice nurses completed the training and assessment. In total, 217 questionnaires, which were scored based on a six-point Likert scale, were collected from 21 wards, with the response rate estimated at 26.53%. Moreover, an audit was performed to obtain 98.1-100% of the compliance rate of using the P&C for evaluation. Since June 2016, the incident rate due to inaccurate device setting decreased from 0.21 to 0.13 after the P&C implementation. Conclusion: According to the results, P&C is a simple method to facilitate the meticulous assessment of high-alert medication administration by nurses. It is recommended that further improvement be made in this regard in order to address the unidentified other areas. Of note, counter measures were proposed to strengthen P&C compliance.

  4. A Framework for Monitoring and Maintenance of a Tsunami Early Warning System using ITIL® (United States)

    Gensch, Stephan; Günther, Michael; Henneberger, Ralph; Strollo, Angelo


    Within this work, we present our approach and ongoing efforts to establish monitoring and maintenance processes for Tsunami Early Warning Systems. Practical work is done within the context of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning System (INATEWS) at Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) in Jakarta, Indonesia. The German contribution is well known as GITEWS. INATEWS is composed of several thousand integrated system components and numerous software processes. Due to the heterogeneity and complexity of the system, as well as the high availability needs, being an operational TEWS, real-time monitoring, reporting and scheduled preventive maintenance are needed. To develop and install an organizational and operational methodology for maintenance processes for INATEWS, we asserted ITIL® methods and are in development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) together with BMKG operational and management staff. ITIL®-conforming methods are one means of IT Service Management which has been adopted by a variety of service oriented IT providers. An early warning system does not expose classical consumer services, but the dissemination of warning messages and an early warning as a product may nevertheless be viewed as distinct services provided by a TEWS. We applied methods from ITIL® to the modular and hierarchical components of an early warning center, where minimum requirements on service availability, reliability and correctness of the warning product exist, from dissemination down to each sensor component. We describe functions of actors that ensure management of incidents and problems, as well as managing applications, IT operations and further technical issues. For the components of the early warning system, we present a model of event detection and event resolution. Real-time monitoring provides automated health-checks. Errors lead to reports to designated targets. Preventive maintenance provides findings on data and system availability, and data quality. Each

  5. The SuperNova Early Warning System


    Scholberg, K.


    A core collapse in the Milky Way will produce an enormous burst of neutrinos in detectors world-wide. Such a burst has the potential to provide an early warning of a supernova's appearance. I will describe the nature of the signal, the sensitivity of current detectors, and SNEWS, the SuperNova Early Warning System, a network designed to alert astronomers as soon as possible after the detected neutrino signal.

  6. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products. (United States)

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily


    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

  7. Structure health assessment and warning system (SHAWS) (United States)

    Bock, Daniel M.; Kim, Keehoon; Mapar, Jalal


    We are developing a Structure Health Assessment and Warning System (SHAWS) based on building displacement measurements and wireless communication. SHAWS will measure and predict the stability/instability of a building, determine whether it is safe for emergency responders to enter during an emergency, and provide individual warnings on the condition of the structure. SHAWS incorporates remote sensing nodes (RSNs) installed on the exterior frame of a building. Each RSN includes a temperature sensor, a three-axis accelerometer making static-acceleration measurements, and a ZigBee wireless system (IEEE 802.15.4). The RSNs will be deployed remotely using an air cannon delivery system, with each RSN having an innovative adhesive structure for fast (<10 min) and strong installation under emergency conditions. Once the building has moved past a threshold (~0.25 in./building story), a warning will be issued to emergency responders. In addition to the RSNs, SHAWS will include a base station located on an emergency responder's primary vehicle, a PDA for mobile data display to guide responders, and individual warning modules that can be worn by each responder. The individual warning modules will include visual and audio indicators with a ZigBee receiver to provide the proper degree of warning to each responder.

  8. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products (United States)

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily


    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

  9. Instructors' Use of Trigger Warnings and Behavior Warnings in Abnormal Psychology (United States)

    Boysen, Guy A.; Wells, Anna Mae; Dawson, Kaylee J.


    College students have been increasingly demanding warnings and accommodations in relation to course topics they believe will elicit strong, negative emotions. These "trigger warnings" are highly relevant to Abnormal Psychology because of the sensitive topics covered in the course (e.g., suicide, trauma, sex). A survey of Abnormal…

  10. Incidents analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francois, P.


    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs

  11. Environment Agency England flood warning systems (United States)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter


    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  12. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Steinmetz


    Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen

  13. Important characteristics of warning displays on alcohol containers. (United States)

    Malouff, J; Schutte, N; Wiener, K; Brancazio, C; Fish, D


    Four studies examined the federally mandated warning on alcohol containers, which is required by law to be "located in a conspicuous and prominent place." In all four studies few of the drinkers could recall the main parts of the warnings, even though the warning had been required on all alcohol containers for over two years. In Study 1, 44 adults looked at the warning on various beer containers and 77% thought that the warning was not conspicuous but could be made conspicuous through various changes, such as by printing the warning horizontally (parallel to the brand name) rather than vertically. In Study 2, 50 adults looked at the warning placed horizontally on one beer can and vertically on a similar can and rated the horizontal warning significantly more conspicuous. In Study 3, 44 adults spent several minutes in a simulated drinking atmosphere. Half the subjects had beer cans with a horizontal warning and half had a vertical warning. The subjects with the horizontal warning later showed significantly better awareness/recall of the warning. In Study 4, with 75 adult subjects in a bar, the half of the subjects prompted to notice the alcohol warning drank less thereafter in the bar than the other subjects. The findings of the series of studies suggest that the conspicuousness of health warnings on alcohol containers tends to influence their possible effectiveness.

  14. A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres (United States)

    Santos-Reyes, Jaime


    Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot

  15. A new French flash flood warning service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Saint-Aubin Céline


    Full Text Available The French State services in charge of flood forecasting supervise about 22,000 km among the 120,000 km of the French rivers within a warning procedure called Vigilance Crues ( Some recent dramatic flood events on small watershed not covered by Vigilance Crues highlight the need for a new warning procedure to anticipate violent flash floods that regularly affect rapid river-basins. Thus the concept emerged of an automatic warning service specifically dedicated to local crisis managers. This service will be less elaborated than Vigilance Crues, probably with false alarms and missed events sometimes, but it will deliver a first information. The generation of the warning is based on a simple rainfall-runoff hydrological model developed by Irstea on all French rivers, fed with radar-gauge rainfall grids provided by Meteo-France. Every fifteen minutes, the hydrological model estimates the discharges on the rivers eligible to the service and determine if certain thresholds corresponding to a high or very high flood are likely to be exceeded. The last step of the real-time system is to determine which municipalities are concerned with flood risk and send them an automatic warning by voice call, optionally by sms or email. A specific web interface is available for users to monitor the evolution of the flood risk on maps that are updated every 15 minutes. This new flash flood warning service will be operational early 2017 as a free service for about 8,000 French municipalities.

  16. The Global Emergency Observation and Warning System (United States)

    Bukley, Angelia P.; Mulqueen, John A.


    Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.

  17. Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats (United States)


    Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

  18. An Infrastructure for a Traffic Warning System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønsted, Jeppe; Hansen, Klaus Marius; Kristensen, Lars Michael


    The LIWAS Trafc Warning System aims at providingearly warning to vehicles about road conditions, such aswhether the road is slippery. The LIWAS system is currentlybeing developed and consists of two main parts:sensors for determining the state of the road and a communicationinfrastructure...... supporting inter-vehicle communication.This paper presents our results on requirementsidentication, design, and prototyping of the infrastructure.The infrastructure combines communication via mobilephones with communication based on the principles ofad-hoc networking, and it supports units in being...

  19. An early warning system for environmental compliance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quayle, T.A.


    This paper describes a process called an early warning system. This system is used for developing a method to monitor regulatory developments as they progress through the federal or state administrative process. The components of this early warning system, methods used to identify, analyze, communicate, and act on regulations, are addressed. The communication system includes a regulatory development tracking system and the methods used to relay information to applicable personnel. This paper also discusses the use of an environmental compliance manual and shows the relationship of the analysis of changing regulatory requirements to the revision process of the manual as well as methods of maintaining the manual as a ''living document''

  20. Space systems for disaster warning, response, and recovery

    CERN Document Server

    Madry, Scott


    This SpringerBrief provides a general overview of the role of satellite applications for disaster mitigation, warning, planning, recovery and response. It covers both the overall role and perspective of the emergency management community as well as the various space applications that support their work. Key insights are provided as to how satellite telecommunications, remote sensing, navigation systems, GIS, and the emerging domain of social media are utilized in the context of emergency management needs and requirements. These systems are now critical in addressing major man-made and natural disasters. International policy and treaties are covered along with various case studies from around the world. These case studies indicate vital lessons that have been learned about how to use space systems more effectively in addressing the so-called “Disaster Cycle.” This book is appropriate for practicing emergency managers, Emergency Management (EM) courses, as well as for those involved in various space applica...

  1. Streamlining Tsunami Messages (e.g., Warnings) of the US National Tsunami Warning Center, Palmer, Alaska (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.; Johnston, D. M.


    Spurred in part by world-wide interest in improving warning messaging for and response to tsunamis in the wake of several catastrophic tsunamis since 2004 and growing interest at the US National Weather Service (NWS) to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program, the NWS Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii have made great progress toward enhancing tsunami messages. These include numerous products, among them being Tsunami Warnings, Tsunami Advisories and Tsunami Watches. Beginning in 2010 we have worked with US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Warning Coordination and Mitigation and Education Subcommittee members; Tsunami Program administrators; and NWS Weather Forecast Officers to conduct a series of focus group meetings with stakeholders in coastal areas of Alaska, American Samoa, California, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oregon, US Virgin Islands and Washington to understand end-user perceptions of existing messages and their existing needs in message products. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a Tsunami Warning Message Metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order, Formatting, and Receiver Characteristics. A sample message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met, whether the message is a full length or short message. Incrementally, this work contributed to revisions in the format, content and style of message products issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC). Since that time, interest in short warning messages has continued to increase and in May 2016 the NTWC began efforts to revise message products to take advantage of recent NWS policy changes allowing use of mixed-case text

  2. Prototype Rail Crossing Violation Warning Application Project Report. (United States)


    This report is the Project Report for the Rail Crossing Violation Warning (RCVW) safety application developed for the project on Rail Crossing Violation Warning Application and Infrastructure Connection, providing a means for equipped connected vehic...

  3. Salience and Impact of Health Warning Label on Cigarette Packs in Vietnam: Findings From the Global Adult Tobacco Survey 2015. (United States)

    Ngoc Bich, Nguyen; Thu Ngan, Tran; Bao Giang, Kim; Thi Hai, Phan; Thi Thu Huyen, Doan; Ngoc Khue, Luong; Tuan Lam, Nguyen; Van Minh, Hoang; Thi Quynh Nga, Pham; The Quan, Nguyen; Loan, Vu Hoang


    Viet Nam is among the countries having highest rate of male smokers in the world. The country has joined the Global Tobacco Surveillance System since 2010. Under this system, two rounds of Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) were conducted in 2010 and 2015. Those two surveys provide excellent comparable data on tobacco usage and its related aspects in Vietnam. This study using the data from GATS 2015 to examine the salience and impact of cigarette pack health warnings on quitting intention in Vietnam. The Vietnam GATS 2015 was a nationally representative survey in which 9,513 households were selected using two-stage random systematic sampling method. Results of multivariate analysis showed that the strongest predictor for quit intention because of health warnings was "ever made a quit attempt in the past 12 months" followed by "believes that tobacco smoking causes serious illness". Compared to GATS 2010, GATS 2015 observed the increase in salience of cigarette health warnings. However, the current pictorial health warnings are losing their impact on motivating intention to quit. The results highlight that it is time to start the rotation cycle to refresh the current health warning set. Actions to select a new and more impressive set of pictorial health warnings should be developed as soon as possible.

  4. Crisis management and warning procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valérie November


    territoriale du risque s’avère nécessaire.Based on two flood events that recently affected new housing areas in very different political, organisational and hydrological contexts, this article examines the practices of actors involved in emergency and crisis situations in Switzerland. In both cases, the actors are identified – through their role and their position in the various procedures related to crisis management – and an inventory is made of the documents used. The study examines how the flood events were managed, identifies the organisational changes that followed the crises, and determines how the risk was conceived and to what extent it was formalised by the different actors both before and after the floods. Finally new forecasting and warning procedures that were set up following the events are described. The study shows that floods have a decisive impact on the production of knowledge, but that this phenomenon varies according to the actors. Events such as floods also sometimes reveal the existence of "latent" knowledge, or knowledge that is available but has not yet been integrated into institutional procedures. In terms of both forecasting and crisis management, these events also provide the opportunity to test information channels and to identify and correct any problems relating to organisation, cooperation or the reliability of means of communication. Among other things, the risks and crises related to flooding modify the dynamics and policies of the local area as a result of readjustments in the networks of actors. The introduction of emergency and crisis management measures appears more effective, however, than the reorganisation of planning and development procedures, a process which generally takes a lot longer. Nevertheless, since the recollection of events tends to fade with time, it is important that risks find a more concrete form of spatial expression on the landscape.

  5. Thermoregulation constrains effective warning signal expression. (United States)

    Lindstedt, Carita; Lindström, Leena; Mappes, Johanna


    Evolution of conspicuous signals may be constrained if animal coloration has nonsignaling as well as signaling functions. In aposematic wood tiger moth (Parasemia plantaginis) larvae, the size of a warning signal (orange patch on black body) varies phenotypically and genetically. Although a large warning signal is favored as an antipredator defense, we hypothesized that thermoregulation may constrain the signal size in colder habitats. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a factorial rearing experiment with two selection lines for larval coloration (small and large signal) and with two temperature manipulations (high and low temperature environment). Temperature constrained the size and brightness of the warning signal. Larvae with a small signal had an advantage in the colder environment, which was demonstrated by a faster development time and growth rate in the low temperature treatment, compared to larvae with a large signal. Interestingly, the larvae with a small signal were found more often on the plant than the ones with a large signal, suggesting higher basking activity of the melanic (small signal) individuals in the low temperature. We conclude that the expression of aposematic display is not only defined by its efficacy against predators; variation in temperature may constrain evolution of a conspicuous warning signal and maintain variation in it.

  6. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.


    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the

  7. Childhood cancer: Early warning signs | Stones | Continuing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Continuing Medical Education. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 28, No 7 (2010) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Childhood cancer: Early warning signs. DK Stones. Abstract.

  8. Backing warning sensors for tow plows. (United States)


    Backup warning system devices were evaluated to determine if they would alert winter maintenance snow : plow drivers to obstacles directly behind the trailer and out of view of the driver when a unit is backed up. : When the sensors on the back of th...

  9. Menstrual Cycle (United States)

    ... To receive General email updates Enter email Submit Menstrual Cycle The menstrual cycle is the hormonal process ... Preventing problems with your menstrual cycle View more Menstrual Cycle resources Related information Endometriosis Infertility Polycystic ovary ...

  10. Earthquake early warning performance tests for Istanbul (United States)

    Köhler, N.; Wenzel, F.; Erdik, M.; Alcik, H.; Mert, A.


    The Marmara Region is the most densily populated region in Turkey. The greater area of the mega-city Istanbul inhabits about 14 million people. The city is located in the direct vicinity of the Main Marmara Fault, a dextral strike-slip fault system intersecting the Sea of Marmara, which is the western continuation of the North Anatolian Fault [Le Pichon et al., 2001]. Its closest distance to the city of Istanbul ranges between 15 and 20 km. Recent estimates by Parsons [2004] give a probability of more than 40% of a M ≥ 7 earthquake that will affect Istanbul within the next 30 years. Due to this high seismic risk, earthquake early warning is an important task in disaster management and seismic risk reduction, increasing the safety of millions of people living in and around Istanbul and reducing economic losses. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) includes a set of 10 strong-motion sensors used for early warning which are installed between Istanbul and the Main Marmara Fault. The system works on the exceedance of amplitude thresholds, whereas three alarm levels are defined at three different thresholds [Erdik et al., 2003]. In the context of the research project EDIM (Earthquake Disaster Information System for the Marmara Region, Turkey), the early warning network is planned to be extended by an additional set of 10 strong-motion sensors installed around the Sea of Marmara to include the greater Marmara Region into the early warning process. We present performance tests of both the existing and the planned extended early warning network using ground motion simulations for 280 synthetic earthquakes along the Main Marmara Fault with moment magnitudes between 4.5 and 7.5. We apply the amplitude thresholds of IERREWS, as well as, for comparison, an early warning algorithm based on artificial neural networks which estimates hypocentral location and magnitude of the occurring earthquake. The estimates are updated continuously with

  11. One-year-olds warn others about negative action outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knudsen, B.; Liszkowski, U.


    Warning others is a paradigm case of communicative helping and prospective action understanding. The current study addressed the ontogeny of warning in infants' gestural communication. We found that 12- and 18-month-olds (n = 84) spontaneously warned an adult by pointing out to her an aversive

  12. 14 CFR 135.153 - Ground proximity warning system. (United States)


    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Ground proximity warning system. 135.153... Equipment § 135.153 Ground proximity warning system. (a) No person may operate a turbine-powered airplane... equipped with an approved ground proximity warning system. (b) [Reserved] (c) For a system required by this...

  13. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning. (United States)


    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... AND NOT MISBRANDED General Provisions § 330.2 Pregnancy-nursing warning. A pregnancy-nursing warning...

  14. The lower effectiveness of text-only health warnings in China compared to pictorial health warnings in Malaysia. (United States)

    Elton-Marshall, Tara; Xu, Steve Shaowei; Meng, Gang; Quah, Anne C K; Sansone, Genevieve C; Feng, Guoze; Jiang, Yuan; Driezen, Pete; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Fong, Geoffrey T


    In 2009, China changed its health warnings on cigarette packs from side-only text warnings to two text-only warnings on 30% of the bottom of the front and back of the pack. Also in 2009, Malaysia changed from similar text warnings to pictorial health warnings consistent with Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) Article 11 Guidelines. To measure the impact of the change in health warnings in China and to compare the text-only health warnings to the impact of the pictorial health warnings introduced in Malaysia. We measured changes in key indicators of warning effectiveness among a longitudinal cohort sample of smokers from Waves 1 to 3 (2006-2009) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey and from Waves 3 to 4 (2008-2009) of the ITC Malaysia Survey. Each cohort consisted of representative samples of adult (≥18 years) smokers from six cities in China (n=6575) and from a national sample in Malaysia (n=2883). Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to examine the impact of the health warnings on subsequent changes in salience of warnings, cognitive and behavioural outcomes. Compared to Malaysia, the weak text-only warning labels in China led to a significant change in only two of six key indicators of health warning effectiveness: forgoing cigarettes and reading the warning labels. The change to pictorial health warnings in Malaysia led to significant and substantial increases in five of six indicators (noticing, reading, forgoing, avoiding, thinking about quitting). The delay in implementing pictorial health warnings in China constitutes a lost opportunity for increasing knowledge and awareness of the harms of cigarettes, and for motivating smokers to quit. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to


    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Wächter, J.


    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of earthquakes, for the monitoring of sea level, ocean floor events, and ground displacements. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems. The introductory part of the demonstration briefly explains the DEWS project, the CCUI in conjunction with operators’ workflow, the system architecture, details of information logistics and the virtual scenario of live demonstration. The live demonstration exhibits the CCUI on screen and the service

  16. Satellite Threat Warning and Attack Reporting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hilland, D. [Kirkland AFB, NM (United States). Air Force Research Lab.; Phipps, G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Optics & Technologies Dept.; Jingle, C.; Newton, G. [Schafer Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    The Air Force Research Laboratory`s Satellite Threat Warning and Attack Reporting (STW/AR) program will provide technologies for advanced threat warning and reporting of radio frequency (RF) and laser threats. The STW/AR program objectives are: (a) develop cost- effective technologies to detect, identify, locate, characterize, and report attacks or interference against U.S. and Allied satellites. (b) demonstrate innovative, light-weight, low-power, laser and RF sensors. The program focuses on the demonstration of RF and laser sensors. The RF sensor effort includes the investigation of interferometric antenna arrays, multi-arm spiral and butler matrix antennas, wideband receivers, adaptive processors, and improved processing algorithms. The laser sensor effort includes the investigation of alternative detectors, broadband grating and optical designs, active pixel sensing, and improved processing algorithms.

  17. Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization. (United States)

    Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui


    In the past decades, China has observed rapid urbanization, the nation's urban population reached 50% in 2000, and is still in steady increase. Rapid urbanization in China has an adverse impact on urban hydrological processes, particularly in increasing the urban flood risks and causing serious urban flooding losses. Urban flooding also increases health risks such as causing epidemic disease break out, polluting drinking water and damaging the living environment. In the highly urbanized area, non-engineering measurement is the main way for managing urban flood risk, such as flood risk warning. There is no mature method and pilot study for urban flood risk warning, the purpose of this study is to propose the urban flood risk warning method for the rapidly urbanized Chinese cities. This paper first presented an urban flood forecasting model, which produces urban flood inundation index for urban flood risk warning. The model has 5 modules. The drainage system and grid dividing module divides the whole city terrain into drainage systems according to its first-order river system, and delineates the drainage system into grids based on the spatial structure with irregular gridding technique; the precipitation assimilation module assimilates precipitation for every grids which is used as the model input, which could either be the radar based precipitation estimation or interpolated one from rain gauges; runoff production module classifies the surface into pervious and impervious surface, and employs different methods to calculate the runoff respectively; surface runoff routing module routes the surface runoff and determines the inundation index. The routing on surface grid is calculated according to the two dimensional shallow water unsteady flow algorithm, the routing on land channel and special channel is calculated according to the one dimensional unsteady flow algorithm. This paper then proposed the urban flood risk warning method that is called DPSIR model based

  18. Early Warning Network of The Czech Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Early Warning Network, part of the Radiation Monitoring Network of The Czech Republic, has been established after 1990 to provide overview information about radiation situation across the territory of Czech Republic and to raise an alarm in case of unreported accident outside the territory of Czech Republic. The Early Warning Network measuring sites are equipped with two-probe system. As a result of combination of a low-range probe (proportional counter, dose-rate range 10-8 to 10-3 Sv/h) and a high-range probe (Geiger-Mueller counter, 10-5 to 1 Sv/h) the system is able to cover the dose-rate range from natural background to values in real emergency situation. The energy range covered is 20 keV to 2 MeV and 55 keV to 2 MeV, respectively

  19. Rogue wave early warning through spectral measurements?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We study the spectra of the Peregrine soliton and higher-order rational solutions of the nonlinear Schroedinger equation (NLSE), which we use as a model of the rogue waves in optics and in the deep ocean. We show that these solutions have specific triangular spectra that are certainly easily measurable in optical systems and which may be amenable to characterisation in ocean environments. As the triangular feature of the solutions appears at an early stage of their evolution, this raises the possibility of early detection and possible localized warning of the appearance of rogue waves. We anticipate that studying the characteristics of 'early warning spectra' of rogue waves may become an important future field of research.

  20. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    What does it take to recognise and prevent hazards with international causes and consequences? How can we handle the risks related to financial instability, terrorism, pandemics, air pollution, flooding and climate change? The book brings together scholars and senior practitioners from different...... areas to conceptualise and empirically study the interlinked problems of forecasting, warning and mobilising preventive action. Contributors comment on key problems such as uncertainty, silo-mentality, spotting weak-signals, cultures of blame, conflicts of interest and divergent risk perceptions......, but are also sensitive to differences between actors and types of risk. The overall thrust is to challenge both technocratic and popularised accounts of the warning-response problem. Successful prevention or mitigation involves difficult cognitive, normative and political judgements. Whilst these difficulties...

  1. Automatic early warning systems for the environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesjak Martin


    Full Text Available Computerized, continuous monitoring environmental early warning systems are complex networks that merge measurements with the information technology. Accuracy, consistency, reliability and data quality are their most important features. Several effects may disturb their characteristics: hostile environment, unreliable communications, poor quality of equipment nonqualified users or service personnel. According to our experiences, a number of measures should be taken to enhance system performances and to maintain them at the desired level. In the paper, we are presenting an analysis of system requirements, possible disturbances and corrective measures that give the main directives for the design, construction and exploitation of the environmental early warning systems. Procedures which ensure data integrity and quality are mentioned. Finally, the contemporary system approach based on the LAN/WAN network topology with Intranet/Internet software is proposed, together with case descriptions of two already operating systems, based on computer-network principle.

  2. Home seismometer for earthquake early warning (United States)

    Horiuchi, Shigeki; Horiuchi, Yuko; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Wu, Changjiang; Rydelek, Paul A.; Kachi, Masaaki


    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has started the practical service of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and a very dense deployment of receiving units is expected in the near future. The receiving/alarm unit of an EEW system is equipped with a CPU and memory and is on-line via the internet. By adding an inexpensive seismometer and A/D converter, this unit is transformed into a real-time seismic observatory, which we are calling a home seismometer. If the home seismometer is incorporated in the standard receiving unit of EEW, then the number of seismic observatories will be drastically increased. Since the background noise inside a house caused by human activity may be very large, we have developed specialized software for on-site warning using the home seismometer. We tested our software and found that our algorithm can correctly distinguish between noise and earthquakes for nearly all the events.

  3. GAMMA-1: a first step towards a radiation early warning system for Belarus and the Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With assistance from the European Commission, the governments of Belarus and the Ukraine have planned a radiation early warning system to detect faults and incidents which may arise in nuclear plants. The objective is to in stall a GAMMA curtain ultimately covering the whole of the former Soviet Union and to include nationwide radiation measurement networks in Belarus and the Ukraine. A pilot system, GAMMA-1, will be commissioned shortly with the primary objectives of: detecting significant changes in radiation levels in three critical pilot areas; alerting the national authorities to any significant change; providing information on which warnings to the population may be based; assisting in counter measures to protect populations and the environment; testing and evaluating key elements of the overall system. The fixed and roving response systems, the gamma monitoring stations and the response centres are described in outline. (UK)

  4. The use of passive environmental TLDs in the operation of the Spanish early warning network 'Revira'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As required by different international agreements, the regulatory body in Spain (Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) implemented in 1992 a national automatic network (REVIRA) that continuously monitors radiation levels in order to give early warning of incidents having potential transboundary implications. The detector for environmental gamma radiation dose rate is an active instrument based on a Geiger-Mueller counter. However, the use of passive environmental dosemeters provides an additional low-cost dose estimate with an independent centralised calibration and even better basic features than active instruments. Since 1999, all 25 REVIRA stations have been monitored with passive TL environmental dosemeters based on LiF:Mg,Cu,P and operated according to the procedures established at Ciemat. This paper presents the obtained results and the further analysis considering differences in aspects such as photon energy response, inherent background or response to cosmic rays. The benefits of the use of passive environmental dosemeters in early warning networks are discussed. (author)

  5. Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings at Raleigh, North Carolina. (United States)

    Hoium, Debra K.; Riordan, Allen J.; Monahan, John; Keeter, Kermit K.


    The National Weather Service issues public warnings for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes when these storms appear imminent. A study of the warning process was conducted at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Raleigh, North Carolina, from 1994 through 1996. The purpose of the study was to examine the decision process by documenting the types of information leading to decisions to warn or not to warn and by describing the sequence and timing of events in the development of warnings. It was found that the evolution of warnings followed a logical sequence beginning with storm monitoring and proceeding with increasingly focused activity. For simplicity, information input to the process was categorized as one of three types: ground truth, radar reflectivity, or radar velocity.Reflectivity, velocity, and ground truth were all equally likely to initiate the investigation process. This investigation took an average of 7 min, after which either a decision was made not to warn or new information triggered the warning. Decisions not to issue warnings were based more on ground truth and reflectivity than radar velocity products. Warnings with investigations of more than 2 min were more likely to be triggered by radar reflectivity, than by velocity or ground truth. Warnings with a shorter investigation time, defined here as "immediate trigger warnings," were less frequently based on velocity products and more on ground truth information. Once the decision was made to warn, it took an average of 2.1 min to prepare the warning text. In 85% of cases when warnings were issued, at least one contact was made to emergency management officials or storm spotters in the warned county. Reports of severe weather were usually received soon after the warning was transmitted-almost half of these within 30 min after issue. A total of 68% were received during the severe weather episode, but some of these storm reports later proved false according to Storm Data.Even though the WSR

  6. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.


    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  7. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign. (United States)


    ... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master...) Dangerous Cargo. (3) No Visitors. (4) No Smoking. (5) No Open Lights. (c) Each letter in the words on the....1 cm (2 in.) wide, except for “M” and “W” which must be 7.6 cm (3 in.) wide, and the letter “I...

  8. The Monumental Task of Warning Future Generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)



    Describing preliminary concepts for permanent warning monuments or markers on the mountain's surface will be part of the US Department of Energy's license application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The NRC requires that the monuments or markers accurately identify the location of the repository, be designed to be as permanent as practicable and convey a warning against intrusion into the underground repository, because of risk to public health and safety from radioactive wastes. Current concepts include both monuments and markers, but the designs will not be final for some time because they will not be approved by the NRC until shortly before the repository is to be permanently sealed and closed. Closure of the repository would be at least 50 years, and possibly up to 300 years, after the first waste is emplaced deep underground. Design ideas for the monuments and markers have been drawn from a broad range of sources: Yucca Mountain's natural conditions, worldwide archeological studies, materials science, and verbal and symbolic linguistics. The monumental challenge is to address how warnings can be coherently conveyed for thousands of years into the future when human society and languages could change radically

  9. [Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China]. (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan


    To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

  10. Implicit motivational impact of pictorial health warning on cigarette packs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Volchan

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The use of pictorial warning labels on cigarette packages is one of the provisions included in the first ever global health treaty by the World Health Organization against the tobacco epidemic. There is substantial evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of graphic health warning labels on intention to quit, thoughts about health risks and engaging in cessation behaviors. However, studies that address the implicit emotional drives evoked by such warnings are still underexplored. Here, we provide experimental data for the use of pictorial health warnings as a reliable strategy for tobacco control. METHODS: Experiment 1 pre-tested nineteen prototypes of pictorial warnings to screen for their emotional impact. Participants (n = 338 were young adults balanced in gender, smoking status and education. Experiment 2 (n = 63 tested pictorial warnings (ten that were stamped on packs. We employed an innovative set-up to investigate the impact of the warnings on the ordinary attitude of packs' manipulation, and quantified judgments of warnings' emotional strength and efficacy against smoking. FINDINGS: Experiment 1 revealed that women judged the warning prototypes as more aversive than men, and smokers judged them more aversive than non-smokers. Participants with lower education judged the prototypes more aversive than participants with higher education. Experiment 2 showed that stamped warnings antagonized the appeal of the brands by imposing a cost to manipulate the cigarette packs, especially for smokers. Additionally, participants' judgments revealed that the more aversive a warning, the more it is perceived as effective against smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Health warning labels are one of the key components of the integrated approach to control the global tobacco epidemic. The evidence presented in this study adds to the understanding of how implicit responses to pictorial warnings may contribute to behavioral change.

  11. A review of studies on community based early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Macherera


    Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated by successes made in non-disease specific community-based early warning systems with a view to identify opportunities for developing similar systems for malaria. This article reviewed the existing community-based early warning systems documented in literature. The types of disasters that are addressed by these systems and the methodologies utilised in the development of the systems were identified. The review showed that most of the documented community-based early warning systems focus on natural disasters such as floods, drought, and landslides. Community-based early warning systems for human diseases are very few, even though such systems exist at national and regional and global levels. There is a clear gap in terms of community-based malaria early warning systems. The methodologies for the development of the community-based early warning systems reviewed mainly derive from the four elements of early warning systems; namely risk knowledge, monitoring, warning communication and response capability. The review indicated the need for the development of community based early warning systems for human diseases. Keywords: community; early warning; disaster; hazards

  12. A review of studies on community based early warning systems


    Margaret Macherera; Moses J. Chimbari


    Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated...

  13. Alcohol warning label perceptions: Emerging evidence for alcohol policy. (United States)

    Al-hamdani, Mohammed; Smith, Steven


    Patterns of alcohol and cigarette use and abuse can be considered parallels due to their similar social, biological and epidemiological implications. Therefore, the cross-fertilization of policy research, including health warnings evidence, is justified. The objective of this study was to apply the lessons learned from the tobacco health warnings and plain packaging literature to an alcohol packaging study and test whether labelling alters consumer perceptions. Ninety-two adults were exposed to four labelling conditions of bottles for a famous brand of each of wine, beer and hard liquor. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four labelling conditions: standard, text warning, text and image warning, or text and image warning on a plain bottle. Participants then expressed their product-based (i.e., evaluation of the products) and consumer-based (i.e., evaluation of potential consumers of the products) perceptions in relation to each label condition and were asked to recognize the correct health warning. As expected, participants perceived bottles with warnings less positively as compared to standard bottles in terms of product-based and consumer-based perceptions: plain bottles showed the most consistent statistically significant results, followed by text and image warnings, and then text warnings in pair-wise comparisons with the standard bottles. Some support for the impact of plain packaging on warning recognition was also found. Unlike previous studies, this study reveals that health warnings, if similar to those on cigarette packs, can change consumer-based and product-based perceptions of alcohol products. The study reveals the importance of serious consideration of stringent alcohol warning policy research.

  14. PCAST warns against slashing Federal science budget (United States)

    Carlowicz, Michael

    With the congressional cost-cutting dynamo rolling through the 1996 budget process, a group of academic and industry science advisors has assumed the role of traffic cop, cautioning legislators on both sides of the aisle to [slow down!] Invoking economic productivity, the quality of American life, and national security, the 19 members of the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) have warned both political parties that a budget balanced through severe cuts in research funding will cost the country more than it saves.

  15. SNEWS - The Supernova Early Warning System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The SuperNova Early Warning System is a cooperative project involving many experimenters coming from several, past and present, neutrino detectors. The primary goal of the collaboration is to provide the astronomical community with a prompt alert at the time of next galactic supernova. Requiring the online coincidence among neutrino detectors, world-wide distributed and with different detection techniques, SNEWS will generate a reliable, prompt and automated alert by eliminating the potential local false triggers. In this paper I will give a concise overview on the project motivations, network implementation, working procedures and current status.

  16. Early warning network of the Czech Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Early Warning Network encompasses 48 measuring sites covering the whole territory of the Czech Republic; 38 of them are located at observatories of the Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute (28 at round-the-clock manned observatories, 10 at unmanned, automated observatories) and 10 are located at air contamination measuring points operated by the National Radiation Protection Institute and Regional Centres of the State Office for Nuclear Safety. The network operates in one of 3 modes: the standard mode, alert mode, and emergency mode. (P.A.)

  17. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library (United States)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.


    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical

  18. Advanced Planning and Early Warning for the Warfighter

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lilly, Julius


    Current tactical/operational software and doctrine do not provide the warfighter early warning against intercepted or non-intercepted missiles, especially when containing chemical/biological agents...

  19. A Quantitative Analysis of Variability Warnings in Linux

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melo, Jean; Flesborg, Elvis; Brabrand, Claus


    In order to get insight into challenges with quality in highly-configurable software, we analyze one of the largest open source projects, the Linux kernel, and quantify basic properties of configuration-related warnings. We automatically analyze more than 20 thousand valid and distinct random...... configurations, in a computation that lasted more than a month. We count and classify a total of 400,000 warnings to get an insight in the distribution of warning types, and the location of the warnings. We run both on a stable and unstable version of the Linux kernel. The results show that Linux contains...

  20. An analysis of legal warnings after drug approval in Thailand. (United States)

    Sriphiromya, Pakawadee; Theeraroungchaisri, Anuchai


    Drug risk management has many tools for minimizing risk and black-boxed warnings (BBWs) are one of those tools. Some serious adverse drug reactions (ADRs) emerge only after a drug is marketed and used in a larger population. In Thailand, additional legal warnings after drug approval, in the form of black-boxed warnings, may be applied. Review of their characteristics can assist in the development of effective risk mitigation. This study was a cross sectional review of all legal warnings imposed in Thailand after drug approval (2003-2012). Any boxed warnings for biological products and revised warnings which were not related to safety were excluded. Nine legal warnings were evaluated. Seven related to drugs classes and two to individual drugs. The warnings involved four main types of predictable ADRs: drug-disease interactions, side effects, overdose and drug-drug interactions. The average time from first ADRs reported to legal warnings implementation was 12 years. The triggers were from both safety signals in Thailand and regulatory measures in other countries outside Thailand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Warning: You are being primed! The effect of a warning on the impact of subliminal ads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verwijmeren, T.; Karremans, J.C.T.M.; Bernritter, S.F.; Stroebe, W.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.


    As it has been demonstrated that subliminal advertising can affect consumers' decisions – if the ad is goal relevant – the question rises whether consumers are able to shield themselves from subliminal influences. In the present research it was examined whether warning people of the presence of

  2. Warning: you are being primed! The effect of a warning on the impact of subliminal ads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verwijmeren, T.; Karremans, J.C.; Bernritter, S.F.; Stroebe, W.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.


    As it has been demonstrated that subliminal advertising can affect consumers’ decisions - if the ad is goal relevant - the question rises whether consumers are able to shield themselves from subliminal influences. In the present research it was examined whether warning people of the presence of

  3. Serious adverse events in a hospital using early warning score - what went wrong?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, John Asger; Mackel, Rebecca; Antonsen, Kristian


    AIM: To evaluate the performance of a new early warning score (EWS) system by reviewing all serious adverse events in our hospital over a 6-month time period. METHOD: All incidents of unexpected death (UD), cardiac arrest (CA) and unanticipated intensive care unit admission(UICU) of adult patients...... of EWS were recorded in 87, 94 and 75% of UICU, CA and UD. Patients were monitored according to the escalation protocol in 13, 31 and 13% of UICU, CA and UD. Nurses escalated care and contacted physicians in 64% and 60% of events of UICU and the corresponding proportions for CO were 58% and 55%. On call...

  4. Actionable Knowledge and Strategic Decision Making for Bio- and Agroterrorism Threats: Building a Collaborative Early Warning Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mårtensson, Per-Åke; Hedström, Lars; Sundelius, Bengt


    organizations compared to the benefit of sharing information can be considered in an “information sharing risk-benefit analysis” to prevent a terrorism incident from occurring and to build a rapid response capability. In the EU project AniBioThreat, early warning is the main topic in work package 3 (WP 3...... threats. The seminar concluded that there are a number of challenges in building a collaborative culture, including developing an education program that supports collaboration and shared situational awareness....

  5. 76 FR 55923 - Draft Guidance for Industry: Submission of Warning Plans for Cigarettes and Smokeless Tobacco... (United States)


    ... warning plan; where to submit; and what approval of a warning plan means. II. Significance of Guidance FDA... submitted in a warning plan; where to submit a warning plan; and what approval of a warning plan means. FDA... displayed in each 12-month period on each brand of the product; are randomly displayed in as equal a number...

  6. Observed activation status of lane departure warning and forward collision warning of Honda vehicles at dealership service centers. (United States)

    Reagan, Ian J; McCartt, Anne T


    There are little objective data on whether drivers with lane departure warning and forward collision warning systems actually use them, but self-report data indicate that lane departure warning may be used less and viewed less favorably than forward collision warning. The current study assessed whether the systems were turned on when drivers brought their vehicles to dealership service stations and whether the observational protocol is a feasible method for collecting similar data on various manufacturers' systems. Observations of 2013-2015 Honda Accords, 2014-2015 Odysseys, and 2015 CR-Vs occurred at 2 U.S. Honda dealerships for approximately 4 weeks during Summer 2015. Of the 265 vehicles observed to have the 2 systems, 87 (32.8%) had lane departure warning turned on. Accords were associated with a 66% increase in the likelihood that lane departure warning was turned on compared with Odysseys, but the rate was still only about 40% in Accords. In contrast, forward collision warning was turned on in all but one of the observed vehicles. Observations found that the activation rate was much higher for forward collision warning than lane departure warning. The observation method worked well and appears feasible for extending to other manufacturers.

  7. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region (United States)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole


    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  8. NCAR activities related to translating climate and weather information into infectious-disease and other public-health early warnings (United States)

    Warner, T.; Monaghan, A.; Hopson, T.


    The atmosphere can influence the spread of human and agricultural infectious diseases through a number of different mechanisms, including the effect of the atmosphere on the health of the pathogen itself, the health and number of disease vectors, human behavior, wind transport, and flooding. Through knowledge of the statistical or physical relationships between disease incidence, for example outbreaks, and weather or climate conditions, it is possible to translate predictions of the atmosphere into predictions of disease spread or incidence. Medium range forecasts of weeks can allow redistribution of vaccines and medical personnel to locations that will be in greatest need. Inter-seasonal forecasts, e.g. based on the ENSO cycle, can provide long-lead-time information for disease early-warning systems, which can guide the manufacture of vaccines and inform aid agencies about future requirements. And knowledge of longer-term trends in climate conditions, associated, for example, with increases in green-house gases, can be used for development of infectious-disease mitigation and prevention policies. Because of the existence of complex physical, biological, and societal aspects to the links between atmospheric conditions and disease, prediction systems must be constructed based on knowledge of multiple disciplines. To be described in the presentation are activities at the National Center for Atmospheric Research that involve the coupling of atmospheric models with infectious-disease models and decision-support systems. These include 1) the use of operational multi-week weather forecasts to estimate the spatial and temporal variability of the threat of bacterial meningitis in West Africa, 2) climate and spatial risk modeling of human plague in Uganda, 3) a study of how climate variability and human landscape modification interact to influence key aspects of both mosquito vector ecology and human behavior, and how they influence the increased incidence of dengue fever

  9. Early Warning Systems at Different Time Scales (United States)

    Bain, C.


    Early Warning Systems (EWS) reduce the negative aspects of natural hazard impacts on vulnerable communities. Despite its frequent use as a term there is no real 'one size fits all' approach to EWS and the system may comprise of different elements depending on the time scale of the hazard, the quality of the information available to make decisions, as well as the population needs and habits. In most developing countries, the primary hydro-meteorological hazards are droughts and floods. These two hazards demand very different approaches: droughts occur over long time scales and are generally a consequence of a gradual process of reduced rainfall across a rainy season; Floods may be caused on seasonal timescales as well due to an overactive rainy season, but the most extreme consequences and loss of life are often suffered at short timescales and relate to flash flooding caused by severe thunderstorms, monsoon extremes and tropical cyclones. This presentation will address the issues around implementing successful EWS and how these can be targeted to different time scales of hazards. Case studies illustrating the benefits of early information use and action will be shown along with open questions for debate on how the science community might better engage and help develop solutions to hazard warning.

  10. Enhanced chemical weapon warning via sensor fusion (United States)

    Flaherty, Michael; Pritchett, Daniel; Cothren, Brian; Schwaiger, James


    Torch Technologies Inc., is actively involved in chemical sensor networking and data fusion via multi-year efforts with Dugway Proving Ground (DPG) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The objective of these efforts is to develop innovative concepts and advanced algorithms that enhance our national Chemical Warfare (CW) test and warning capabilities via the fusion of traditional and non-traditional CW sensor data. Under Phase I, II, and III Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) contracts with DPG, Torch developed the Advanced Chemical Release Evaluation System (ACRES) software to support non real-time CW sensor data fusion. Under Phase I and II SBIRs with DTRA in conjunction with the Edgewood Chemical Biological Center (ECBC), Torch is using the DPG ACRES CW sensor data fuser as a framework from which to develop the Cloud state Estimation in a Networked Sensor Environment (CENSE) data fusion system. Torch is currently developing CENSE to implement and test innovative real-time sensor network based data fusion concepts using CW and non-CW ancillary sensor data to improve CW warning and detection in tactical scenarios.

  11. An archival analysis of stall warning system effectiveness during airborne icing encounters (United States)

    Maris, John Michael

    An archival study was conducted to determine the influence of stall warning system performance on aircrew decision-making outcomes during airborne icing encounters. A Conservative Icing Response Bias (CIRB) model was developed to explain the historical variability in aircrew performance in the face of airframe icing. The model combined Bayes' Theorem with Signal Detection Theory (SDT) concepts to yield testable predictions that were evaluated using a Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) multivariate technique applied to two archives: the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident database, and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident databases, both covering the period January 1, 1988 to October 2, 2015. The CIRB model predicted that aircrew would experience more incorrect response outcomes in the face of missed stall warnings than with stall warning False Alarms. These predicted outcomes were observed at high significance levels in the final sample of 132 NASA/NTSB cases. The CIRB model had high sensitivity and specificity, and explained 71.5% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance of aircrew decision-making outcomes during the icing encounters. The reliability and validity metrics derived from this study suggest indicate that the findings are generalizable to the population of U.S. registered turbine-powered aircraft. These findings suggest that icing-related stall events could be reduced if the incidence of stall warning Misses could be minimized. Observed stall warning Misses stemmed from three principal causes: aerodynamic icing effects, which reduced the stall angle-of-attack (AoA) to below the stall warning calibration threshold; tail stalls, which are not monitored by contemporary protection systems; and icing-induced system issues (such as frozen pitot tubes), which compromised stall warning system effectiveness and airframe envelope protections. Each of these sources of missed stall warnings could be addressed by Aerodynamic Performance

  12. A review of effective flood forecasting, warning and response system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Last mentioned are the reason for absence in South Africa of a formal flood forecast, warning and response system (FFWRS). In most cases where a flood warning system exists, there is evidence that it is insufficient, mainly because of a lack of knowledge and understanding of a well-functioning, appropriate FFWRS.

  13. 30 CFR 77.410 - Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. (United States)


    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. 77... UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Safeguards for Mechanical Equipment § 77.410 Mobile equipment; automatic warning devices. (a) Mobile equipment such as front-end loaders, forklifts, tractors, graders, and trucks, except...

  14. An exploration of public knowledge of warning signs for cancer. (United States)

    Keeney, Sinead; McKenna, Hugh; Fleming, Paul; McIlfatrick, Sonja


    Warning signs of cancer have long been used as an effective way to summarise and communicate early indications of cancer to the public. Given the increasing global burden of cancer, the communication of these warning signs to the public is more important than ever before. This paper presents part of a larger study which explored the attitudes, knowledge and behaviours of people in mid-life towards cancer prevention. The focus of this paper is on the assessment of the knowledge of members of the public aged between 35 and 54 years of age. A questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of the population listing 17 warning signs of cancer. These included the correct warning signs and distracter signs. Respondents were asked to correctly identify the seven warning signs. Findings show that respondents could identify 4.8 cancer warning signs correctly. Analysis by demographics shows that being female, being older, having a higher level of educational attainment and being in a higher socio-economic group are predictors of better level of knowledge of cancer warning signs. Recommendations are proffered with regard to better targeting, clarification and communication of cancer warning signs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Speech act theory in support of idealised warning models | Carstens ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In applied communication studies warnings (as components of instructional texts) are often characterised in terms of criteria for effectiveness. An idealised model for warnings include the following elements: a signal word or label appropriate to the level of hazard; a hazard statement; references to the consequences of ...

  16. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wächter


    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  17. Automated Safety Warning Controller (ASWC) Phase I - Proof of Concept (United States)


    Automated warning systems are not a new concept within the transportation community. There are several projects on the state highway that use the concept of a roadway sensor initiating some type of motorist warning. To date, all of these systems are ...

  18. Multimodal warnings to enhance risk communication and safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haas, E.C.; Erp, J.B.F. van


    Multimodal warnings incorporate audio and/or skin-based (tactile) cues to supplement or replace visual cues in environments where the user’s visual perception is busy, impaired, or nonexistent. This paper describes characteristics of audio, tactile, and multimodal warning displays and their role in

  19. 46 CFR 98.30-35 - Warning sign at gangway. (United States)


    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 98.30-35 Section 98.30-35 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS SPECIAL... Warning sign at gangway. If a vessel is moored, no person may transfer to or from a portable tank a...

  20. 46 CFR 105.45-20 - Warning sign at gangway. (United States)


    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning sign at gangway. 105.45-20 Section 105.45-20 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) CARGO AND MISCELLANEOUS VESSELS... sign at gangway. (a) Warning placards shall be kept at hand for display while a vessel is fast to a...

  1. The Mental Health Counselor and "Duty to Warn." (United States)

    Pietrofesa, John J.; And Others


    Reviews background and case histories surrounding legal concept of "duty to warn" and confidentiality limits of counseling. Discusses professional, ethical, and legal responsibilities of mental health counselors and identifies steps to follow for counselors who have to warn potential victims of danger from their clients. (Author/ABL)

  2. The Effect of Cancer Warning Statements on Alcohol Consumption Intentions (United States)

    Pettigrew, Simone; Jongenelis, Michelle I.; Glance, David; Chikritzhs, Tanya; Pratt, Iain S.; Slevin, Terry; Liang, Wenbin; Wakefield, Melanie


    In response to increasing calls to introduce warning labels on alcoholic beverages, this study investigated the potential effectiveness of alcohol warning statements designed to increase awareness of the alcohol-cancer link. A national online survey was administered to a diverse sample of Australian adult drinkers (n = 1,680). Along with…

  3. Tsunami Warning Criteria for Cascadia events based on Tsunami models (United States)

    Huang, P. Y.; Nyland, D. L.; Knight, W.; Gately, K.; Hale, D.; Urban, G.; Waddell, J.; Carrick, J.; Popham, C.; Bahng, B.; Kim, Y.; Burgy, M.; Langley, S.; Preller, C. C.; Whitmore, P.


    Initial tsunami warning, advisory, and watch zones for potential Cascadia earthquakes have been revised based on maximum expected threat for tsunamis generated by earthquakes in this region. Presently, alert zones are initially based on travel time for earthquakes greater than magnitude 7.8 with all areas less than three hours away from the source being put into a tsunami warning. The impact of this change is to reduce the length of coastline which is immediately put it into a warning status. Tsunami Warning Centers often delineate initial tsunami alert zones based on pre-set criteria dependent on earthquake magnitude, location, depth, and tsunami travel time. In many cases, this approach can lead to over-warning. Over the last several years, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) has attempted to refine the amount of coastline immediately placed in a warning status based on maximum expected threat instead of travel time. Tsunami forecast models used to predict impacts during events (for example, Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM), Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT), and Rapid Inundation Forecasting of Tsunamis (RIFT)) can also be used a-priori to delineate zones at-risk for specified source zones. forecast models have proven reasonably accurate during recent events. For the Cascadia Subduction zone, several rupture scenarios ranging from magnitude 7.9 to 9.2, were computed. Forecasted wave heights at various points are then used to set the initial Warning/Watch/Advisory regions. This procedure is more efficient than a blanket warning - or a refined warning based on travel times - as appropriate threat levels are assigned based on expected impact. For example, after a magnitude 8.7 earthquake in the southern Cascadia Subduction zone, southern and most of central California can be left out of the warning zone and placed in an advisory, as none of this region contains expected impacts in the warning threshold (tsunami amplitude

  4. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Marchi


    Full Text Available Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows, their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and nonstructural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche

  5. Paediatric early warning systems: where do we go from here? (United States)

    McCabe, Adrienne; Duncan, Heather; Heward, Yvonne


    The Confidential Enquiry into Maternal and Child Health report published in 2008 recommended that there should be a standardised monitoring system with embedded early identification systems for children at risk of critical illness or deterioration. Recent studies have demonstrated improvement in patient outcomes following the implementation of paediatric early warning scores and response teams in children's units and hospitals. However, it is not enough to use an early warning score in isolation; it needs to be embedded into a paediatric early warning system, with a rationalised approach to the observation and monitoring of hospitalised children. Lessons can be learnt from the adult experience of implementing early warning systems. A national, multidisciplinary, collaborative approach to the development, implementation and evaluation of paediatric early warning systems is recommended.

  6. Special issue on warnings: advances in delivery, application, and methods. (United States)

    Mayhorn, Christopher B; Wogalter, Michael S; Laughery, Kenneth R


    This special issue of Applied Ergonomics concerns the topic of warnings, safety communications designed to decrease harm to people and property. The field has evolved over time, and with it there has been advancement in knowledge and application. The current special issue contains 14 articles that reflect three distinguishable areas within the warnings literature where such changes are taking place in the laboratories and workplaces of our international colleagues: (1) multimodality of warning delivery, (2) emerging application areas, and (3) new methodology. This special issue brings together a set of studies investigating various factors that might impact safety behavior in diverse settings and domains where warnings are likely to be encountered. It is our hope that the special issue will motivate to development and exploration of new ideas regarding warning design and their use in a variety of applications that improve safety. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  7. Monitoring city wide patterns of cycling safety. (United States)

    Boss, Darren; Nelson, Trisalyn; Winters, Meghan


    Many cities are making significant financial investments in cycling infrastructure with the aim of making cycling safer for riders of all ages and abilities. Methods for evaluating cycling safety tend to summarize average change for a city or emphasize change on a single road segment. Few spatially explicit approaches are available to evaluate how patterns of safety change throughout a city due to cycling infrastructure investments or other changes. Our goal is to demonstrate a method for monitoring changes in the spatial-temporal distribution of cycling incidents across a city. Using cycling incident data provided by the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, we first compare planar versus network constrained kernel density estimation for visualizing incident intensity across the street network of Vancouver, Canada. Second, we apply a change detection algorithm explicitly designed for detecting statistically significant change in kernel density estimates. The utility of network kernel density change detection is demonstrated through the comparison of cycling incident densities following the construction of two cycle tracks in the downtown core of Vancouver. The methods developed and demonstrated for this study provide city planners, transportation engineers and researchers a means of monitoring city-wide change in the intensity of cycling incidents following enhancements to cycling infrastructure or other significant changes to the transportation network. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Car Gestures - Advisory warning using additional steering wheel angles. (United States)

    Maag, Christian; Schneider, Norbert; Lübbeke, Thomas; Weisswange, Thomas H; Goerick, Christian


    Advisory warning systems (AWS) notify the driver about upcoming hazards. This is in contrast to the majority of currently deployed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) that manage emergency situations. The target of this study is to investigate the effectiveness, acceptance, and controllability of a specific kind of AWS that uses the haptic information channel for warning the driver. This could be beneficial, as alternatives for using the visual modality can help to reduce the risk of visual overload. The driving simulator study (N=24) compared an AWS based on additional steering wheel angle control (Car Gestures) with a visual warning presented in a simulated head-up display (HUD). Both types of warning were activated 3.5s before the hazard object was reached. An additional condition of unassisted driving completed the experimental design. The subjects encountered potential hazards in a variety of urban situations (e.g. a pedestrian standing on the curbs). For the investigated situations, subjective ratings show that a majority of drivers prefer visual warnings over haptic information via gestures. An analysis of driving behavior indicates that both warning approaches guide the vehicle away from the potential hazard. Whereas gestures lead to a faster lateral driving reaction (compared to HUD warnings), the visual warnings result in a greater safety benefit (measured by the minimum distance to the hazard object). A controllability study with gestures in the wrong direction (i.e. leading toward the hazard object) shows that drivers are able to cope with wrong haptic warnings and safety is not reduced compared to unassisted driving as well as compared to (correct) haptic gestures and visual warnings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Operators in Yemen draw warning from Saudis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)



    This paper reports that foreign oil companies with concessions in northern Yemen have been drawn into a border dispute between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. At least six companies received letters from the Saudi government warning them that steps, as yet undefined, will be taken if exploration extends into disputed areas. A second territorial dispute also appears to be brewing in the region. Iran has ejected United Arab Emirates nationals from the island of Abu Musa in the Persian Gulf, which is jointly administered by Iran and Sharjah, one of the emirates. The U.A.E. government has reported the situation to the Gulf Cooperation Council, triggering a denial from Iran that anyone has been deported from the island

  10. Ionizing-radiation warning - Supplementary symbol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This International Standard specifies the symbol to warn of the presence of a dangerous level of ionizing radiation from a high-level sealed radioactive source that can cause death or serious injury if handled carelessly. This symbol is not intended to replace the basic ionizing radiation symbol [ISO 361, ISO 7010:2003, Table 1 (Reference number W003)], but to supplement it by providing further information on the danger associated with the source and the necessity for untrained or uninformed members of the public to stay away from it. This symbol is recommended for use with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Category 1, 2, and 3 sealed radioactive sources. These sources are defined by the IAEA as having the ability to cause death or serious injuries. The paper informs about scope, shape, proportions and colour of the symbol, and application of the symbol. An annex provides the technical specifications of the symbol

  11. Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel


    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are increasingly applied to mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards. To compare the effect of EWS with alternative risk reduction measures and to optimize their design and operation, their reliability and effectiveness must be quantified. In the present contribution, a framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural hazards is presented. The system reliability is classically represented by the Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of False Alarms (PFA). We demonstrate how the EWS effectiveness, which is a measure of risk reduction, can be formulated as a function of POD and PFA. To model the EWS and compute the reliability, we develop a framework based on Bayesian Networks, which is further extended to a decision graph, facilitating the optimization of the warning system. In a case study, the framework is applied to the assessment of an existing debris flow EWS. The application demonstrates the potential of the framework for identifying the important factors influencing the effectiveness of the EWS and determining optimal warning strategies and system configurations. - Highlights: • Warning systems are increasingly applied measures to reduce natural hazard risks. • Bayesian Networks (BN) are powerful tools to quantify warning system's reliability. • The effectiveness is defined to assess the optimality of warning systems. • By extending BNs to decision graphs, the optimal warning strategy is identified. • Sensors positioning significantly influence the effectiveness of warning systems

  12. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification. (United States)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel


    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  13. Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting (United States)

    Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier; hide


    various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.

  14. Comparing Alcohol Marketing and Alcohol Warning Message Policies Across Canada. (United States)

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Cukier, Samantha N; Giesbrecht, Norman


    In order to reduce harms from alcohol, evidence-based policies are to be introduced and sustained. To facilitate the dissemination of policies that reduce alcohol-related harms by documenting, comparing, and sharing information on effective alcohol polices related to restrictions on alcohol marketing and alcohol warning messaging in 10 Canadian provinces. Team members developed measurable indicators to assess policies on (a) restrictions on alcohol marketing, and (b) alcohol warning messaging. Indicators were peer-reviewed by three alcohol policy experts, refined, and data were collected, submitted for validation by provincial experts, and scored independently by two team members. The national average score was 52% for restrictions on marketing policies and 18% for alcohol warning message policies. Most provinces had marketing regulations that went beyond the federal guidelines with penalties for violating marketing regulations. The provincial liquor boards' web pages focused on product promotion, and there were few restrictions on sponsorship activities. No province has implemented alcohol warning labels, and Ontario was the sole province to have legislated warning signs at all points-of-sale. Most provinces provided a variety of warning signs to be displayed voluntarily at points-of-sale; however, the quality of messages varied. Conclusions/Importance: There is extensive alcohol marketing with comparatively few messages focused on the potential harms associated with alcohol. It is recommended that governments collaborate with multiple stakeholders to maximize the preventive impact of restrictions on alcohol marketing and advertising, and a broader implementation of alcohol warning messages.

  15. Predictors for the Number of Warning Information Sources During Tornadoes. (United States)

    Cong, Zhen; Luo, Jianjun; Liang, Daan; Nejat, Ali


    People may receive tornado warnings from multiple information sources, but little is known about factors that affect the number of warning information sources (WISs). This study examined predictors for the number of WISs with a telephone survey on randomly sampled residents in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri, approximately 1 year after both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5) in 2011. The survey included 1006 finished interviews and the working sample included 903 respondents. Poisson regression and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression showed that older age and having an emergency plan predicted more WISs in both cities. Education, marital status, and gender affected the possibilities of receiving warnings and the number of WISs either in Joplin or in Tuscaloosa. The findings suggest that social disparity affects the access to warnings not only with respect to the likelihood of receiving any warnings but also with respect to the number of WISs. In addition, historical and social contexts are important for examining predictors for the number of WISs. We recommend that the number of WISs should be regarded as an important measure to evaluate access to warnings in addition to the likelihood of receiving warnings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:168-172).

  16. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.


    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  17. Health warning messages on tobacco products: a review. (United States)

    Hammond, David


    To review evidence on the impact of health warning messages on tobacco packages. Articles were identified through electronic databases of published articles, as well as relevant 'grey' literature using the following keywords: health warning, health message, health communication, label and labelling in conjunction with at least one of the following terms: smoking, tobacco, cigarette, product, package and pack. Relevant articles available prior to January 2011 were screened for six methodological criteria. A total of 94 original original articles met inclusion criteria, including 72 quantitative studies, 16 qualitative studies, 5 studies with both qualitative and qualitative components, and 1 review paper: Canada (n=35), USA (n=29) Australia (n=16), UK (n=13), The Netherlands (n=3), France (n=3), New Zealand (n=3), Mexico (n=3), Brazil (n=2), Belgium (n=1), other European countries (n=10), Norway (n=1), Malaysia (n=1) and China (n=1). The evidence indicates that the impact of health warnings depends upon their size and whereas obscure text-only warnings appear to have little impact, prominent health warnings on the face of packages serve as a prominent source of health information for smokers and non-smokers, can increase health knowledge and perceptions of risk and can promote smoking cessation. The evidence also indicates that comprehensive warnings are effective among youth and may help to prevent smoking initiation. Pictorial health warnings that elicit strong emotional reactions are significantly more effective. Health warnings on packages are among the most direct and prominent means of communicating with smokers. Larger warnings with pictures are significantly more effective than smaller, text-only messages.

  18. Geographic information system applications to public warning systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newsom, D.E.


    This paper describes the capabilities of a geographic information system (GIS), the Integrated Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS), for planning a siren-based public warning system. The Outdoor Sound Propagation Model (OSPM) in IEMIS models warning sirens in a given area and reports the results graphically as sound pressure level contours. As implemented in IEMIS, OSPM includes graphic functions for the preparation and display of input data, display of the model's results, and management of data files. These graphic functions enable public safety personnel to plan more effectively for warning of the public

  19. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of a rockfall warning system (United States)

    Bründl, Michael; Sättele, Martina; Krautblatter, Michael; Straub, Daniel


    Rockslides and rockfalls can pose high risk to human settlements and traffic infrastructure. In addition to structural mitigation measures like rockfall nets, warning systems are increasingly installed to reduce rockfall risks. Whereas for structural mitigation measures with reducing effects on the spatial extent a structured evaluation method is existing, no or only few approaches to assess the effectiveness for warning systems are known. Especially for higher magnitude rockfalls structural mitigation measures are not effective, and reliable early warning systems will be essential in future. In response to that, we developed a classification and a framework to assess the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems (Sättele et al, 2015a; 2016). Here, we demonstrate an application for the rockfall warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012 (Sättele et al., 2015b). We show that it is necessary to design such a warning system as fail-safe construction, which has to incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. With a hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting an event and on initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on related intervention cost. We conclude that it is possible to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of warning systems, which helps to optimize mitigation strategies against rockfall events. References Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Reliability and effectiveness of warning systems for natural hazards: concept and application to debris flow warning, Rel. Eng. Syst. Safety, 142, 192-202, 2015a. Sättele, M., Krautblatter, M., Bründl, M., and Straub, D.: Forecasting rock slope failure: How reliable and effective are warning systems?, Landslides, 605, 1-14, 2015b. Sättele, M., Bründl, M., and

  20. Using Digital Cameras to Detect Warning Signs of Volcanic Eruptions (United States)

    Girona, T.; Huber, C.; Trinh, K. T.; Protti, M.; Pacheco, J. F.


    Monitoring volcanic outgassing is fundamental to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions. Recent efforts have led to the advent of new methods to measure the concentration and flux of volcanic gases with unprecedented temporal resolution, thus allowing us to obtain reliable high-frequency (up to 1 Hz) time series of outgassing activity. These high-frequency methods have shown that volcanic outgassing can be periodic sometimes (with periodicities ranging from 101 s to 103 s), although it remains unknown whether the spectral features of outgassing reflect the processes that ultimately trigger volcanic unrest and eruptions. In this study, we explore the evolution of the spectral content of the outgassing activity of Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica) using digital images (with digital brightness as a proxy for the emissions of water vapor [Girona et al., 2015]). Images were taken at 1 km distance with 1 Hz sampling rate, and the time period analyzed (from April 2016 to April 2017) is characterized by episodes of quiescent outgassing, ash explosions, and sporadic eruptions of ballistics. Our preliminary results show that: 1) quiescent states of Turrialba volcano are characterized by outgassing frequency spectra with fractal distribution; 2) superimposed onto the fractal frequency spectra, well-defined pulses with period around 100 s emerge hours to days before some of the eruptions of ballistics. An important conclusion of this study is that digital cameras can be potentially used in real-time volcano monitoring to detect warning signs of eruptions, as well as to better understand subsurface processes and track the changing conditions below volcanic craters. Our ongoing study also explores the correlation between the evolution of the spectral content of outgassing, infrasound data, and shallow seismicity. Girona, T., F. Costa, B. Taisne, B. Aggangan, and S. Ildefonso (2015), Fractal degassing from Erebus and Mayon volcanoes revealed by a new method to monitor H2O

  1. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.


    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  2. Image Recognition Techniques for Earthquake Early Warning (United States)

    Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Hauksson, E.


    When monitoring on his/her PC a map of seismic stations, whose colors scale with the real-time transmitted ground motions amplitudes observed in a dense seismic network, an experienced person will fairly easily recognize when and where an earthquake occurs. Using the maximum amplitudes at stations at close epicentral distances, he/she might even be able to roughly estimate the size of the event. From the number and distribution of stations turning 'red', the person might also be able to recognize the rupturing fault in a large earthquake (M>>7.0), and to estimate the rupture dimensions while the rupture is still developing. Following this concept, we are adopting techniques for automatic image recognition to provide earthquake early warning. We rapidly correlate a set of templates with real-time ground motion observations in a seismic network. If a 'suspicious' pattern of ground motion amplitudes is detected, the algorithm starts estimating the location of the earthquake and its magnitude. For large earthquakes the algorithm estimates finite source dimensions and the direction of rupture propagation. These predictions are continuously up-dated using the current 'image' of ground motion observations. A priori information, such as on the orientation of mayor faults, helps enhancing estimates in less dense networks. The approach will be demonstrated for multiple simulated and real events in California.

  3. Flood forecasting and warning systems in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali Awan, Shaukat


    Meteorologically, there are two situations which may cause three types of floods in Indus Basin in Pakistan: i) Meteorological Situation for Category-I Floods when the seasonal low is a semi permanent weather system situated over south eastern Balochistan, south western Punjab, adjoining parts of Sindh get intensified and causes the moisture from the Arabian Sea to be brought up to upper catchments of Chenab and Jhelum rivers. (ii) Meteorological Situation for Category-11 and Category-111 Floods, which is linked with monsoon low/depression. Such monsoon systems originate in Bay of Bengal region and then move across India in general west/north westerly direction arrive over Rajasthan or any of adjoining states of India. Flood management in Pakistan is multi-functional process involving a number of different organizations. The first step in the process is issuance of flood forecast/warning, which is performed by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) utilizing satellite cloud pictures and quantitative precipitation measurement radar data, in addition to the conventional weather forecasting facilities. For quantitative flood forecasting, hydrological data is obtained through the Provincial Irrigation Department and WAPDA. Furthermore, improved rainfall/runoff and flood routing models have been developed to provide more reliable and explicit flood information to a flood prone population.(Author)

  4. Early warnings of heart rate deterioration. (United States)

    Almeida, Vania G; Nabney, Ian T


    Hospitals can experience difficulty in detecting and responding to early signs of patient deterioration leading to late intensive care referrals, excess mortality and morbidity, and increased hospital costs. Our study aims to explore potential indicators of physiological deterioration by the analysis of vital-signs. The dataset used comprises heart rate (HR) measurements from MIMIC II waveform database, taken from six patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and diagnosed with severe sepsis. Different indicators were considered: 1) generic early warning indicators used in ecosystems analysis (autocorrelation at-1-lag (ACF1), standard deviation (SD), skewness, kurtosis and heteroskedasticity) and 2) entropy analysis (kernel entropy and multi scale entropy). Our preliminary findings suggest that when a critical transition is approaching, the equilibrium state changes what is visible in the ACF1 and SD values, but also by the analysis of the entropy. Entropy allows to characterize the complexity of the time series during the hospital stay and can be used as an indicator of regime shifts in a patient's condition. One of the main problems is its dependency of the scale used. Our results demonstrate that different entropy scales should be used depending of the level of entropy verified.

  5. Russian eruption warning systems for aviation (United States)

    Neal, C.; Girina, O.; Senyukov, S.; Rybin, A.; Osiensky, J.; Izbekov, P.; Ferguson, G.


    More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  6. Counter-Point: Early Warning Systems Are Imperfect, but Essential. (United States)

    Lu, Christine Y; Simon, Gregory; Soumerai, Stephen B; Kulldorff, Martin


    Sequential analysis can be used as an early warning system about potential unintended consequences of health policy decisions, generating follow-up investigations, but it should not be used as causal evidence.

  7. Annan warns of 'content divide' between rich and poor

    CERN Multimedia

    Dickson, D


    "The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, warned today (10 December) that a "content divide" is threatening to deprive developing countries of the full benefits offered by information and communications technologies (ICTs)" (1 page)

  8. Design and Evaluation of Warning Sounds in Frigate Control Centres

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    van Balken, Johan S; van Wijngaarden, Sander J


    .... It appeared that for one of the most urgent warning conditions (platform alarm) a less suitable auditory signal was applied, the perceived urgency of which is relatively low, while it is also easily confused with other signals...

  9. [Impact of a health safety warning on strontium ranelate utilization]. (United States)

    Carracedo-Martínez, Eduardo; Pía-Morandeira, Agustín


    To evaluate changes in the use of strontium ranelate following a health safety warning in November 2007 on the risks of the development of DRESS (Drug Rash with Eosinophilia and Systemic Symptoms) with the use of this medicine. Monthly strontium ranelate DHD (daily defined doses/1,000 inhabitants/day) were calculated between 2006 and 2008 in a health area of Spain. The data were analyzed graphically and through a multiple regression model. Graphical representation showed a long-term rising trend throughout the study period, although growth slowed after the safety warning was issued. The multiple regression model showed that the health warning was statistically significant. The use of strontium ranelate continues to grow after the issue of the health safety warning, although at a slower pace than previously. Copyright (c) 2009 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  10. Roadway departure warning indicators : synthesis of noise and bicycle research (United States)


    The United States National Park Service has voiced concern about roadway departure : warning indicators (rumble strips) being installed in locations that affect the natural : sound environment inside the park. Rumble strips can effectively alert erra...

  11. Drug Abuse Warning Network US (DAWN-NS-1994) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) survey is designed to capture data on emergency department (ED) episodes that are induced by or related to the use of an...

  12. Drug Abuse Warning Network US (DAWN-NS-1997) (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) survey is designed to capture data on emergency department (ED) episodes that are induced by or related to the use of an...

  13. Ten Warning Signs Your Older Family Member May Need Help (United States)

    ... Factsheets 10 Warning Signs Adult Day Care Assistive Technology Elder Abuse Face the Facts Home Health Care Home Improvement Assistance Hospital Discharges Pension Counseling A Talk with An Elder ...

  14. Transit bus stop pedestrian warning application : concept of operations document. (United States)


    This document describes the Concept of Operations (ConOps) for the Transit Bus Stop Pedestrian Warning (TSPW) application. The ConOps describes the current state of operations with respect to the integration of connected vehicle technology in transit...

  15. Paradoxical Effects of Warning in the Production of Children's False Memories (United States)

    Del Prete, Francesco; Mirandola, Chiara; Konishi, Mahiko; Cornoldi, Cesare; Ghetti, Simona


    The effects of warning on false recognition and associated subjective experience of false recollection and familiarity were investigated in 7-to 13-year-old children and young adults (N = 259) using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Two warning conditions (warning with an example of a critical lure and warning without an example of a…

  16. Communication of emergency public warnings: A social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mileti, D.S. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (USA)); Sorensen, J.H. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))


    More than 200 studies of warning systems and warning response were reviewed for this social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment of communication of emergency public warnings. The major findings are as follows. First, variations in the nature and content of warnings have a large impact on whether or not the public heeds the warning. Relevant factors include the warning source; warning channel; the consistency, credibility, accuracy, and understandability of the message; and the warning frequency. Second, characteristics of the population receiving the warning affect warning response. These include social characteristics such as gender, ethnicity and age, social setting characteristics such as stage of life or family context, psychological characteristics such as fatalism or risk perception, and knowledge characteristics such as experience or training. Third, many current myths about public response to emergency warning are at odds with knowledge derived from field investigations. Some of these myths include the keep it simple'' notion, the cry wolf'' syndrome, public panic and hysteria, and those concerning public willingness to respond to warnings. Finally, different methods of warning the public are not equally effective at providing an alert and notification in different physical and social settings. Most systems can provide a warning given three or more hours of available warning time. Special systems such as tone-alert radios are needed to provide rapid warning. 235 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Partial scram incident in FBTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usha, S.; Pillai, C.P.; Muralikrishna, G.


    Evaluation of a partial scram incident occurred at the Fast Breeder Test Reactor at Kalpakkam was carried out. Based on the observations of the experiments it was ascertained that the nonpersistant order was due to superimposed noise component on the channel that was close to the threshold and had resulted in intermittent supply to electro-magnetic (EM) coils. Owing to a larger discharge time and a smaller charge time, the EM coils got progressively discharged. It was confirmed that during the incident, partial scram took place since the charging and discharging patterns of the EM coils are dissimilar and EM coils of rods A, E and F had discharged faster than others for noise component of a particular duty cycle. However, nonlatching of scram order was because of the fact that noise pulse duration was less than latching time. (author)

  18. Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes. (United States)

    Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan


    Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Environmental Change & Fragile States Early Warning and Intervention (United States)


    Fragile States Early Warning and Intervention 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e...position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. government Environmental Change & Fragile States Early Warning and... Intervention Steven Hearne, P.E., Senior Fellow Army Environmental Policy Institute (AEPI) Jeremey Alcorn, Research Fellow Logistics Management Institute (LMI



    Sherly Hindra Negoro


    Smoking has became the serious problem which always to be the classical dynamic of health communication’s field. Through health campaign by using pictorical warning in cigarette packs, Indonesian Government has priority to reduce the number of smokers in Indonesia. Pictorical warning in cigarette packs was regard as one of communication strategic for implementing. Health campaign has outcome that could change the health behavior for the persuadee. Visualization by using image b...

  1. Test of thermal shields for early warning station detectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jesper


    The properties of thermal shields around NaI crystal scintillators for early warning stations have been checked in order to assure that external temperature variations cannot influence the stability of the measurements.......The properties of thermal shields around NaI crystal scintillators for early warning stations have been checked in order to assure that external temperature variations cannot influence the stability of the measurements....

  2. Obstetric early warning systems to prevent bad outcome. (United States)

    Quinn, Audrey Catherine; Meek, Tim; Waldmann, Carl


    Early warning scores, early warning systems and rapid response systems, were established in 1999. In the UK, a National Early Warning Score was launched in 2013 and is now used throughout the National Health Service. In 2007, a firm recommendation was made by the maternal confidential death enquiry that maternity units should incorporate a modified early obstetric warning score chart into clinical practice. Although there was enthusiastic uptake of this recommendation, local recording systems vary throughout the country and there is now a need to revisit revise and standardize an obstetric early warning system (ObsEWS). The intercollegiate Maternal Critical Care group of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association have produced an ObsEWS in line with the aggregate UK National Early Warning Score. Six physiological parameters are incorporated: respiratory rate, oxygen saturations, temperature, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and pulse rate. However, robust physiological thresholds for the measured parameters are currently lacking but required for a more sensitive and specific ObsEWS. A greater focus and study on the management of maternal morbidity (in addition to mortality data) and the development of better systems within and across the multidisciplinary team to detect early deterioration should improve management of serious illness in obstetrics. It is imperative that we undertake robust ObsEWS and data collection, including electronic systems with research and evidence-based recommendations to underpin this system. This should improve patient safety and result in more efficient, cost-effective management of sicker patients in our complex modern healthcare systems.

  3. Optimization of Evacuation Warnings Prior to a Hurricane Disaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dian Sun


    Full Text Available The key purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that optimization of evacuation warnings by time period and impacted zone is crucial for efficient evacuation of an area impacted by a hurricane. We assume that people behave in a manner consistent with the warnings they receive. By optimizing the issuance of hurricane evacuation warnings, one can control the number of evacuees at different time intervals to avoid congestion in the process of evacuation. The warning optimization model is applied to a case study of Hurricane Sandy using the study region of Brooklyn. We first develop a model for shelter assignment and then use this outcome to model hurricane evacuation warning optimization, which prescribes an evacuation plan that maximizes the number of evacuees. A significant technical contribution is the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the nonlinear formulation, which is shown to be optimal for the case of a single evacuation zone with a single evacuee type case, while it does not guarantee optimality for multiple zones under unusual circumstances. A significant applied contribution is the demonstration of an interface of the evacuation warning method with a public transportation scheme to facilitate evacuation of a car-less population. This heuristic we employ can be readily adapted to the case where response rate is a function of evacuation number in prior periods and other variable factors. This element is also explored in the context of our experiment.

  4. Improving the effectiveness of nighttime temporary traffic control warning devices, volume 2 : evaluation of nighttime mobile warning lights. (United States)


    Vehicle-mounted warning lights for nighttime mobile highway operations provide critical protection to workers and the driving : public. Alerting the traveling public of the approaching work activity and providing guidance is vital to maintaining safe...

  5. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements


    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.


    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, an...

  6. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang


    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pdengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. We conclude that this timely dengue early warning system will enable public health services to allocate limited resources more effectively, and public health officials to adjust dengue emergency response plans to their maximum capabilities.

  7. A Plan to Develop a Red Tide Warning System for Seawater Desalination Process Management (United States)

    Kim, Tae Woo; Yun, Hong Sik


    The holt of the seawater desalination process for fifty five days due to the eight-month long red tide in 2008 in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, had lost about 10 billion KRW. The POSCO Seawater Desalination facility, located in Gwangyang Bay Area in the Southern Sea, has produced 30,000 tons of fresh water per day since 2014. Since there has been an incident of red time in the area for three months in August, 2012, it is necessary to establish a warning system for red tide that threatens the stable operation of the seawater desalination facility. A red tide warning system can offer the seawater desalination facility manager customized services on red tide information and potential red tide inflow to the water intake. This study aimed to develop a red tide warning system in Gwangyang Bay Area by combining RS, modeling and monitoring technologies, which provides red tide forecasting information with which to effectively control the seawater desalination process. Using the proposed system, the seawater desalination facility manager can take phased measures to cope with the inflow of red tide. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was supported by a grant(16IFIP-C088924-03) from Industrial Facilities & Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT) of the Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA). This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2014R1A1A2054975).

  8. MCFRS Incidents by Station (United States)

    Montgomery County of Maryland — This dataset contains the monthly summary data indicating incident occurred in each fire station response area. The summary data is the incident count broken down by...

  9. Police Incident Reports Written (United States)

    Town of Chapel Hill, North Carolina — This table contains incident reports filed with the Chapel Hill Police Department. Multiple incidents may have been reported at the same time. The most serious...

  10. Design and evaluation of security multimedia warnings for children's smartphones (United States)

    Menzel, Wiebke; Tuchscheerer, Sven; Fruth, Jana; Kraetzer, Christian; Dittmann, Jana


    This article describes primarily the development and empiric validation of a design for security warning messages on smartphones for primary school children (7-10 years old). Our design approach for security warnings for children uses a specific character and is based on recommendations of a paediatrician expert. The design criteria are adapted to children's skills, e.g. their visual, acoustic, and haptic perception and their literacy. The developed security warnings are prototypically implemented in an iOS application (on the iPhone 3G/4G) where children are warned by a simulated anti-malware background service, while they are busy with another task. For the evaluation we select methods for empiric validation of the design approach from the field of usability testing ("think aloud" test, questionnaires, log-files, etc.). Our security warnings prototype is evaluated in an empiric user study with 13 primary school children, aged between 8 and 9 years and of different gender (5 girls, 8 boys). The evaluation analysis shows, that nearly all children liked the design of our security warnings. Surprisingly, on several security warning messages most of the children react in the right way after reading the warning, although the meaning couldn't be interpreted in the right way. Another interesting result is, that several children relate specific information, e.g. update, to a specific character. Furthermore, it could be seen that most of the primary school test candidates have little awareness of security threats on smartphones. It is a very strong argument to develop e.g. tutorials or websites in order to raise awareness and teach children how to recognize security threats and how to react to them. Our design approach of security warnings for children's smartphones can be a basis for warning on other systems or applications like tutorials, which are used by children. In a second investigation, we focus on webpages, designed for children since smartphones and webpages (the

  11. Augmented reality warnings in vehicles: Effects of modality and specificity on effectiveness. (United States)

    Schwarz, Felix; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang


    In the future, vehicles will be able to warn drivers of hidden dangers before they are visible. Specific warning information about these hazards could improve drivers' reactions and the warning effectiveness, but could also impair them, for example, by additional cognitive-processing costs. In a driving simulator study with 88 participants, we investigated the effects of modality (auditory vs. visual) and specificity (low vs. high) on warning effectiveness. For the specific warnings, we used augmented reality as an advanced technology to display the additional auditory or visual warning information. Part one of the study concentrates on the effectiveness of necessary warnings and part two on the drivers' compliance despite false alarms. For the first warning scenario, we found several positive main effects of specificity. However, subsequent effects of specificity were moderated by the modality of the warnings. The specific visual warnings were observed to have advantages over the three other warning designs concerning gaze and braking reaction times, passing speeds and collision rates. Besides the true alarms, braking reaction times as well as subjective evaluation after these warnings were still improved despite false alarms. The specific auditory warnings were revealed to have only a few advantages, but also several disadvantages. The results further indicate that the exact coding of additional information, beyond its mere amount and modality, plays an important role. Moreover, the observed advantages of the specific visual warnings highlight the potential benefit of augmented reality coding to improve future collision warnings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Scientific Animations for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's YouTube Channel (United States)

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.


    Outreach and education save lives, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has a new tool--a YouTube Channel--to advance its mission to protect lives and property from dangerous tsunamis. Such outreach and education is critical for coastal populations nearest an earthquake since they may not get an official warning before a tsunami reaches them and will need to know what to do when they feel strong shaking. Those who live far enough away to receive useful official warnings and react to them, however, can also benefit from PTWC's education and outreach efforts. They can better understand a tsunami warning message when they receive one, can better understand the danger facing them, and can better anticipate how events will unfold while the warning is in effect. The same holds true for emergency managers, who have the authority to evacuate the public they serve, and for the news media, critical partners in disseminating tsunami hazard information. PTWC's YouTube channel supplements its formal outreach and education efforts by making its computer animations available 24/7 to anyone with an Internet connection. Though the YouTube channel is only a month old (as of August 2013), it should rapidly develop a large global audience since similar videos on PTWC's Facebook page have reached over 70,000 viewers during organized media events, while PTWC's official web page has received tens of millions of hits during damaging tsunamis. These animations are not mere cartoons but use scientific data and calculations to render graphical depictions of real-world phenomena as accurately as possible. This practice holds true whether the animation is a simple comparison of historic earthquake magnitudes or a complex simulation cycling through thousands of high-resolution data grids to render tsunami waves propagating across an entire ocean basin. PTWC's animations fall into two broad categories. The first group illustrates concepts about seismology and how it is critical to

  13. Incident Information Management Tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pejovic, Vladimir


    Flaws of\tcurrent incident information management at CMS and CERN\tare discussed. A new data\tmodel for future incident database is\tproposed and briefly described. Recently developed draft version of GIS-­‐based tool for incident tracking is presented.

  14. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier


    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: PMID:26910315

  15. Citizen Science to Support Community-based Flood Early Warning and Resilience Building (United States)

    Paul, J. D.; Buytaert, W.; Allen, S.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Bhusal, J.; Cieslik, K.; Clark, J.; Dewulf, A.; Dhital, M. R.; Hannah, D. M.; Liu, W.; Nayaval, J. L.; Schiller, A.; Smith, P. J.; Stoffel, M.; Supper, R.


    In Disaster Risk Management, an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments towards more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a citizen science approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for flood early warning systems. Here we present the framework and initial results of a major new international project, Landslide EVO, aimed at increasing local resilience against hydrologically induced disasters in western Nepal by exploiting participatory approaches to knowledge generation and risk governance. We identify three major technological developments that strongly support our approach to flood early warning and resilience building in Nepal. First, distributed sensor networks, participatory monitoring, and citizen science hold great promise in complementing official monitoring networks and remote sensing by generating site-specific information with local buy-in, especially in data-scarce regions. Secondly, the emergence of open source, cloud-based risk analysis platforms supports the construction of a modular, distributed, and potentially decentralised data processing workflow. Finally, linking data analysis platforms to social computer networks and ICT (e.g. mobile phones, tablets) allows tailored interfaces and people-centred decision- and policy-support systems to be built. Our proposition is that maximum impact is created if end-users are involved not only in data collection, but also over the entire project life-cycle, including the analysis and provision of results. In this context, citizen science complements more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhances multi-directional information provision, risk management, early-warning systems and local resilience building.

  16. A comparative study of data-driven approaches for flood early warning in small catchments (United States)

    Metzkes, Christine; Singer, Thomas; Wagner, Michael; Philipp, Andy; Kerl, Florian; Schütze, Niels


    Flood early warning for small catchments is a challenging task: As the basin response is fast, proper warning lead times strongly depend on precipitation forecasts which are subject to quantitative and spatial uncertainties. In addition, gauge data in small catchments is often sparse and therefore, the hydrological regime is hardly known. In presence of these uncertainties, the benefit of different model approaches in terms of their predictive quality and their transferability to ungauged catchments is in question. For investigating this issue, two data-driven model approaches of different complexity were developed and comparatively tested. The first model is an artificial neural network for flood forecasting, in particular a two-layer perceptron feedforward network. Precipitation and discharge here serve as forcing data. The second approach is a flood potential assessment procedure. Precipitation history and precipitation forecasts are classified based on threshold values from a precipitation analysis. From this, a score of flood potential is derived. For the model evaluation a quantile-based mapping procedure is used to assign the resulting scores to catchment-specific discharge values. The two model approaches have been tested on 50 catchments in Saxony, Germany, with areas ranging from 5 to 1000 km2. Two datasets of quantitative precipitation estimates - one from rain gauge measurements, one from radar measurements RADOLAN - and two datasets of quantitative precipitation forecasts - a probabilistic forecast based on expert knowledge Quantile Forecast and a numerical weather forecast COSMO-DE - are used as input data. Update cycles as well as lead times are varied within the tests. The model performance is evaluated using different statistical quality criteria. Based on a Leave-one-out cross-validation, the potential of model parameter transfer to ungauged catchments is examined. The large number and the wide range of considered catchments provide a

  17. Patients’ attention to and understanding of adverse drug reaction warnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tresa Muir McNeal


    Full Text Available Tresa Muir McNeal1, Colleen Y Colbert1, Christian Cable1, Curtis R Mirkes1, June G Lubowinski2, John D Myers11Department of Medicine, Texas A&M University System HSC College of Medicine, Scott & White Healthcare, Temple, TX, USA; 2RD Haynes Medical Library, Scott & White Healthcare, Temple, TX, USAIntroduction: Medications are critical to the management of patient conditions, and they can have significant effects on the success or failure of medical interventions. Patient perceptions of drug warnings play an important role in medication compliance and ultimately disease management. Several factors may affect patients’ understanding of drug warnings and drug labeling, including health literacy and interactions with physicians and pharmacists.Purpose: The purpose of this article is to provide a review of the literature related to patient perceptions of drug warnings and drug labeling. Descriptive articles and studies regarding patient perceptions and knowledge of adverse drug reaction warnings were reviewed.Methods: The following databases were utilized to search the literature related to patient perceptions of drug warnings: PubMed, Academic Search Premiere, CINAHL, Medline, Psych Info, Business Source Complete, Alternative Healthwatch, Health Source (both Nursing/Academic and Consumer additions, JSTOR, and Master File Premiere. For the purpose of this review, any peer-reviewed article was eligible. Exclusionary criteria included: articles published in languages other than English, articles/studies on patient perceptions of vaccines and chemotherapy, and articles related to perceptions of medications administered in the inpatient setting. Forty-six articles were included in the review.Results: Health literacy has been shown to have a major impact on patients’ ability to understand potential adverse reactions and instructions on correct dosing of medications. Direct communication with physicians and pharmacists is one of the most important and

  18. ADWICE - Advanced Diagnosis and Warning system for aircraft ICing Environments (United States)

    Leifeld, C.; Hauf, T.; Tafferner, A.; Leykauf, H.


    Inflight icing is a serious hazard, as attested by recent crashes of aircraft. The number of world-wide known accidents and serious incidents in which icing played a major role exceeds 800. Obviously current protection systems and icing forecasting, the latter relying mostly on reported icing by pilots and the evaluation of radiosonde ascents, are inadequate to control the threat. Aircraft inflight icing occurs when areas of supercooled liquid cloud droplets or precipitation are traversed. Ice accumulation on aerodynamic surfaces causes modification of the aerodynamics of the aircraft up to the point of uncontrolled flight. The safest way and the recommended practise would be to avoid the icing conditions. This however requires the forecast of supercooled liquid water (SLWC) in clouds and complete ice microphysics model scheme. Since the forecast quality of SLWC still is insufficient to completely rely on that quality for forecasting aircraft icing, other methods are under development. They rely on algorithms which deduce the potential icing threat from measured (mainly radiosonde ascents) or forecast (numerical models) distributions of temperature and humidity. ADWICE, the Advanced Diagnosis and Warning System for aircraft ICing Environments, has been developed since 1998 in a joint cooperation between the Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre at DLR, the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and the Institut für Meteorologie und Klimatologie (IMUK) at the University of Hannover. To identify icing environments, ADWICE merges forecast model data of the Local Model of the DWD with SYNOP and radar data. Using a slightly modified version of the NCAR/RAP algorithm, which is based on temperature and humidity fields, a first guess icing volume is calculated. Under certain conditions radar and SYNOP data allow corrections of the icing volume. Other data e.g. from satellites may be used in future, too. Since January 2001 ADWICE is running in a testing phase at the DWD. Using PIREPs

  19. Analysis of an integrated solar combined cycle with steam and organic Rankine cycles as bottoming cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaaban, S.


    Highlights: • A novel ISCC with steam and organic Rankine cycles ORC as bottoming cycles was introduced. • The operating conditions of the cycle were optimized using the genetic optimization algorithm. • R1234ze(z) was found to be the best working fluid for the bottoming ORC. • The output power was improved by 19.5% with solar contribution and 23.1% without solar contribution. • The proposed cycle is less affected by variations of the ambient temperature. - Abstract: Integrated Solar Combined Cycles (ISCC) are currently used in countries with high incident solar radiation in order to increase the net output power and decrease the specific fuel consumption. The present work introduces a modified ISCC with two bottoming cycles. The first bottoming cycle is a steam Rankine cycle while the second one is an Organic Rankine Cycle ORC. Multistage compression with intercooling was considered for the gas turbine unit. The ORC was used in order to intercool the compressed air and produce a net power from the received thermal energy. The proposed cycle performance was studied and optimized. Fifteen working fluids were investigated for use with the ORC. Results showed that R1234ze(z) introduces a good compromise between thermodynamics, economic, safety and environmental considerations. The cycle with R1234ze(z) as a working fluid showed an increase of the output power by 19.5% with solar contribution and 23.1% without solar contribution. The increase of the net output power with the application of the proposed cycle is higher than the power produced from a 50 MW solar field. Moreover, the proposed cycle is less affected by variations of the ambient temperature.

  20. Enough is not enough: Medical students’ knowledge of early warning signs of childhood cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ann Geel


    Full Text Available Background. The reported incidence of childhood cancer in upper-middle-income South Africa (SA is much lower than in high-income countries, partly due to under-diagnosis and under-reporting. Documented survival rates are disturbingly low, prompting an analysis of potential factors that may be responsible. Objectives. To determine final-year medical students’ level of knowledge of early warning signs of childhood cancer and whether a correlation existed between test scores and participants’ age, gender and previous exposure to a person with cancer. Methods. A two-part questionnaire based on the Saint Siluan mnemonic, testing both recall and recognition of early warning signs of childhood cancer, was administered. The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was used to assess differences in continuous and count variables between demographic data, experience and responses, and Fisher’s exact test and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient were used to determine correlations between demographic data, previous contact with persons with cancer and test scores. A novel equality ratio was calculated to compare the recall and recognition sections and allowed analysis of recall v. recognition. Results. The 84 participants recalled a median of six signs each (interquartile range 4 - 7 and correctly recognised a median of 70% in the recognition section, considered a pass mark. There was no correlation between participants’ age, gender, previous contact with a person with cancer and recognition scores. Students with previous exposure to a person with cancer had higher scores in the recall section, but this did not achieve statistical significance. Students were able to recognise more signs of haematological malignancies than central nervous system (CNS malignancies. Conclusion. The study demonstrated a marked inconsistency between recall and recognition of signs of childhood cancer, with signs of CNS malignancies being least recognised. However, the majority

  1. Warnings on alcohol containers and advertisements: international experience and evidence on effects. (United States)

    Wilkinson, Claire; Room, Robin


    In light of possible introduction of alcohol warning labels in Australia and New Zealand, this paper discusses the international experience with and evidence of effects of alcohol warning labels. The report describes international experience with providing information and warnings concerning the promotion or sale of alcoholic beverages, and considers the evidence on the effects of such information and warnings. The experience with and evaluations of the effects of tobacco warning labels are also considered. The most methodologically sound evaluations of alcohol warning labels are based on the US experience. Although these evaluations find little evidence that the introduction of the warning label in the USA had an impact on drinking behaviour, there is evidence that they led to an increase in awareness of the message they contained. In contrast, evaluations of tobacco warning labels find clear evidence of effects on behaviour. There is a need and opportunity for a rigorous evaluation of the impacts of introducing alcohol warning labels to add to the published work on their effectiveness. The experience with tobacco labels might guide the way for more effective alcohol warning labels. Alcohol warning labels are an increasingly popular alcohol policy initiative. It is clear that warning labels can be ineffective, but the tobacco experience suggests that effective warning labels are possible. Any introduction of alcohol warning labels should be evaluated in terms of effects on attitudes and behaviour.

  2. Towards a nationwide Early Warning System in Romania (United States)

    Marmureanu, A.; Ionescu, C.; Manea, L.


    The need to use early warning methods to reduce natural risks in modern societies is related to their unprecedented dependence upon technology. The strong deep events originating from Vrancea-Romania (Mw =7.5) area and shallow events originating from Banat-Romania or Shabla-Bulgaria areas can generate destructive effects in Romania and neighbor countries, and may seriously affect high risk manmade structures. EWS for deep Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. For the shallow events several methodologies to rapidly estimate earthquake magnitude are under testing. NIEP developed an early warning system that is able to evaluate rapidly earthquake magnitude after detection in the epicenter. In the last years, NIEP upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. The early warning system consists of seismic stations that allow rapid communication of data, several software modules developed at NIEP and a communication network. The system allows estimation of earthquake magnitude and permits to send earthquake alarm very fast to users. The early warning software modules minimize communication latencies present in other communication protocols in order to have a rapid magnitude determination. This software was developed by NIEP and is running in present at our institute in real time.

  3. Time-to-impact estimation in passive missile warning systems (United States)

    Şahıngıl, Mehmet Cihan


    A missile warning system can detect the incoming missile threat(s) and automatically cue the other Electronic Attack (EA) systems in the suit, such as Directed Infrared Counter Measure (DIRCM) system and/or Counter Measure Dispensing System (CMDS). Most missile warning systems are currently based on passive sensor technology operating in either Solar Blind Ultraviolet (SBUV) or Midwave Infrared (MWIR) bands on which there is an intensive emission from the exhaust plume of the threatening missile. Although passive missile warning systems have some clear advantages over pulse-Doppler radar (PDR) based active missile warning systems, they show poorer performance in terms of time-to-impact (TTI) estimation which is critical for optimizing the countermeasures and also "passive kill assessment". In this paper, we consider this problem, namely, TTI estimation from passive measurements and present a TTI estimation scheme which can be used in passive missile warning systems. Our problem formulation is based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The algorithm uses the area parameter of the threat plume which is derived from the used image frame.

  4. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.


    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  5. A brief measure of reactance to health warnings. (United States)

    Hall, Marissa G; Sheeran, Paschal; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M; Boynton, Marcella H; Brewer, Noel T


    Reactance to persuasive messages involves perceived threat to freedom, anger, and counterarguing that may undermine the impact of health warnings. To understand reactance's effects, reliable and valid assessment is critical. We sought to develop and validate a brief Reactance to Health Warnings Scale (RHWS). Two independent samples of US adults completed the brief RHWS in studies that presented warnings on cigarette packs that smokers carried with them for 4 weeks (Study 1; n = 2149) or as digital images of cigarette packs that participants viewed briefly (Study 2; n = 1413). The three-item Brief RHWS had good internal consistency and test-retest reliability. The scale correlated with higher trait reactance and exposure to pictorial warnings, supporting its convergent validity. With respect to predictive validity, the Brief RHWS predicted perceived message effectiveness, quit intentions, avoidance of the warnings, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. The Brief RHWS can serve as an efficient adjunct to the development of persuasive messages.

  6. Collision risk analysis based train collision early warning strategy. (United States)

    Li, Si-Hui; Cai, Bai-Gen; Liu, Jiang; Wang, Jian


    A Train Collision Early Warning System (TCEWS) has been developed for collision avoidance. However, there are few studies regarding how to evaluate the collision risk and provide an early warning concerning a preceding train on the railway. In this paper, we have found that the time for collision avoidance is constrained by the timing of events, such as wireless communication latency, driver reaction, safety protection distance and deceleration rate. Considering these timing components, the time to avoid a collision is calculated accurately. To evaluate the potential collision severity when the following train approaches, the collision risk is defined based on the time to avoid a collision. The train collision early warning signal is divided into a four-tier color-coded system based on the collision risk, with red representing the most severe collision risk, followed by orange, yellow and blue. A field test of the train collision early warning strategy on the Hankou-Yichang Railway is analysed. It is demonstrated that the strategy has sufficient capability to indicate a potential collision and warn the following train. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Transfusion-associated circulatory overload in adult, medical emergency patients with perspectives on early warning practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gosmann, Fanny; Nørgaard, Astrid; Rasmussen, Maj-Britt


    to the haemovigilance system. The clinical implications are discussed within the frame of the Early Warning Score. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective audit of electronic hospital medical records of patients receiving blood transfusion in a single medical emergency unit. Patients were admitted during a 6-month period......BACKGROUND: Transfusion-associated circulatory overload is characterised by acute respiratory distress, tachycardia, increased blood pressure, acute pulmonary oedema and/or evidence of positive fluid balance occurring within 6 hours after transfusion. Transfusion-associated circulatory overload...... and data on symptoms and vital signs were extracted from the records. RESULTS: Of 4,353 consecutively admitted patients, 156 patients were transfused with a total of 411 blood components. The audit identified five cases of transfusion-associated circulatory overload (incidence 3.2%) and four cases...

  8. A web based on-line radiation early warning system for emergency preparedness and response centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The topography of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay site, where all major components of nuclear fuel cycle activities are located is very complex in nature. The assessment of the radiological impact, if any, due to atmospheric releases from these facilities within BARC site is being carried out by using a Local Area Network (LAN) based Radiation Early Warning System and meteorological parameters. The upgraded system is aimed at providing data during normal operation of the various facilities at site and for providing early warning to decision makers in case of any onset of an emergency. It is carried out by acquiring both on-line and off-line data on releases from the plants, the environmental radiation dose rate at selected locations and other related parameters. The monitors placed at these selected locations including strategic point around the BARC site can also help in detecting any attempt of unauthorized trafficking of the radioactive sources. This paper explains different aspects of the system operating at BARC

  9. Designing informative warning signals: Effects of indicator type, modality, and task demand on recognition speed and accuracy (United States)

    Stevens, Catherine J.; Brennan, David; Petocz, Agnes; Howell, Clare


    An experiment investigated the assumption that natural indicators which exploit existing learned associations between a signal and an event make more effective warnings than previously unlearned symbolic indicators. Signal modality (visual, auditory) and task demand (low, high) were also manipulated. Warning effectiveness was indexed by accuracy and reaction time (RT) recorded during training and dual task test phases. Thirty-six participants were trained to recognize 4 natural and 4 symbolic indicators, either visual or auditory, paired with critical incidents from an aviation context. As hypothesized, accuracy was greater and RT was faster in response to natural indicators during the training phase. This pattern of responding was upheld in test phase conditions with respect to accuracy but observed in RT only in test phase conditions involving high demand and the auditory modality. Using the experiment as a specific example, we argue for the importance of considering the cognitive contribution of the user (viz., prior learned associations) in the warning design process. Drawing on semiotics and cognitive psychology, we highlight the indexical nature of so-called auditory icons or natural indicators and argue that the cogniser is an indispensable element in the tripartite nature of signification. PMID:20523852

  10. Happy Cycling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geert Jensen, Birgitte; Nielsen, Tom


    og Interaktions Design, Aarhus Universitet under opgave teamet: ”Happy Cycling City – Aarhus”. Udfordringen i studieopgaven var at vise nye attraktive løsningsmuligheder i forhold til cyklens og cyklismens integration i byrum samt at påpege relationen mellem design og overordnede diskussioner af...

  11. Glacial cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaufmann, R. K.; Juselius, Katarina

    We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexi...


    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    changed to gestodene. Although large- scale comparative trials are needed to confirm this finding, evidence suggests that cycle control with gestodene is better than for monophasic preparations containing desogestrel, norgestimate or levonorgestrel,10 as well as for levonorg- estrel-or norethisterone-containing triphasics.

  13. Coordination cycles

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Steiner, Jakub


    Roč. 63, č. 1 (2008), s. 308-327 ISSN 0899-8256 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : global games * coordination * crises * cycles and fluctuations Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.333, year: 2008

  14. Coordination cycles

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Steiner, Jakub

    -, č. 274 (2005), s. 1-26 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : coordination * crises * cycles and fluctuations Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  15. On-site early-warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dino Bindi


    Full Text Available In this work, the development of an on-site early warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan is outlined. Several low cost sensors equipped with MEMS accelerometers are installed in eight buildings distributed within the urban area. The different sensing units communicate each other via wireless links and the seismic data are streamed in real-time to the data center using internet. Since each single sensing unit has computing capabilities, software for data processing can be installed to perform decentralized actions. In particular, each sensing unit can perform event detection task and run software for on-site early warning. If a description for the vulnerability of the building is uploaded in the sensing unit, this piece of information can be exploited to introduce the expected probability of damage in the early-warning protocol customized for a specific structure.

  16. Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems. (United States)

    Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan


    The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

  17. Drug safety and the impact of drug warnings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hostenkamp, G.; Fischer, K. E.; Borch-Johnsen, K.


    Objective To analyse the impact of drug safety warnings from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on drug utilisation and their interaction with information released through national reimbursement bodies. Methods Insurance claims data on anti-diabetic drug prescriptions in primary care in Germany...... and Denmark were analysed using interrupted time series analysis, with EMA drug warnings for thiazolidinediones (TZDs) in 2007 and 2011 as the intervention. Monthly drug utilisation data per substance in defined daily dosages (DDD) consumed per 1000 insurees were retrieved from the Danish national drug...... prescriptions register and one large statutory sickness fund in Germany. Results TZDs were generally reimbursed in Germany but restricted to individual reimbursement in Denmark. Consequently, utilisation of TZDs was much higher in Germany in 2007 compared with Denmark. For rosiglitazone, the drug warning had...

  18. Tobacco branding, plain packaging, pictorial warnings, and symbolic consumption. (United States)

    Hoek, Janet; Gendall, Philip; Gifford, Heather; Pirikahu, Gill; McCool, Judith; Pene, Gina; Edwards, Richard; Thomson, George


    We use brand association and symbolic consumption theory to explore how plain cigarette packaging would influence the identities young adults cocreate with tobacco products. Group discussions and in-depth interviews with 86 young adult smokers and nonsmokers investigated how participants perceive tobacco branding and plain cigarette packaging with larger health warnings. We examined the transcript data using thematic analysis and explored how removing tobacco branding and replacing this with larger warnings would affect the symbolic status of tobacco brands and their social connotations. Smokers used tobacco brand imagery to define their social attributes and standing, and their connection with specific groups. Plain cigarette packaging usurped this process by undermining aspirational connotations and exposing tobacco products as toxic. Replacing tobacco branding with larger health warnings diminishes the cachet brand insignia creates, weakens the social benefits brands confer on users, and represents a potentially powerful policy measure.

  19. Wavelet analysis of the seismograms for tsunami warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chamoli


    Full Text Available The complexity in the tsunami phenomenon makes the available warning systems not much effective in the practical situations. The problem arises due to the time lapsed in the data transfer, processing and modeling. The modeling and simulation needs the input fault geometry and mechanism of the earthquake. The estimation of these parameters and other aprior information increases the utilized time for making any warning. Here, the wavelet analysis is used to identify the tsunamigenesis of an earthquake. The frequency content of the seismogram in time scale domain is examined using wavelet transform. The energy content in high frequencies is calculated and gives a threshold for tsunami warnings. Only first few minutes of the seismograms of the earthquake events are used for quick estimation. The results for the earthquake events of Andaman Sumatra region and other historic events are promising.

  20. Graphic warnings and text warning labels on cigarette packages in Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Awareness and perceptions. (United States)

    Jradi, Hoda; Saddik, Basema


    Graphic warning labels have been shown to be effective in smoking initiation and cessation and were implemented in Saudi Arabia in 2012. To date, no study has assessed the effectiveness of these labels and the Saudi population's perceptions on the effectiveness of cigarette health warning labels. We used a cross-sectional qualitative study comprising of nine focus groups among 3 different community group members including health-care workers, adult women and adult men. We conducted in-depth interviews among community leaders. Both focus groups and interviews assessed awareness levels and elicited perceptions about health warning labels on cigarette boxes currently used in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. While most participants in the study were aware and supported the use of graphic warning labels on cigarette packages, the awareness of the specific details on the labels was low. Participants perceived the effectiveness of current labels somewhat vague in smoking cessation and advocated for stronger and more aggressive graphics. Community leaders, however, preferred text-only labels and did not support aggressive labels which were deemed culturally and religiously inappropriate. The study suggests that while graphic warning labels are perceived as necessary on cigarette packages the currently used messages are not clear and therefore do not serve their intended purposes. Measures should be undertaken to ensure that pictorial cigarette labels used in Saudi Arabia are culturally and ethnically appropriate and are rotated on a regular basis to ensure salience among smokers and nonsmokers alike.

  1. Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario (United States)

    Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate


    This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought

  2. Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI (United States)

    Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.


    A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.

  3. Determination of environmental factors affecting dengue incidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    . Prevention movement is considered ineffective; therefore, a more efficient early warning system is required. It is required strongly correlated variables to as predictor in early warning system. This study aims to identify the environmental ...

  4. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) (United States)

    Verdin, James P.


    The FEWS NET mission is to identify potentially food-insecure conditions early through the provision of timely and analytical hazard and vulnerability information. U.S. Government decision-makers act on this information to authorize mitigation and response activities. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) FEWS NET provides tools and data for monitoring and forecasting the incidence of drought and flooding to identify shocks to the food supply system that could lead to famine. Historically focused on Africa, the scope of the network has expanded to be global coverage. FEWS NET implementing partners include the USGS, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Chemonics International.

  5. Forecasting and Warning of Tropical Cyclones in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bangzhong Wang


    Full Text Available With the development of the global economy, the impact of tropical cyclones has become far-reaching. Thus they are a fundamental issue to be addressed both nationally and globally. The socio-economic impact is particularly noticeable in developing countries, especially China. This paper begins with the effects of cyclones on regional and global economies. Then a brief introduction to the past and current situations and progress in cyclones forecasting and warning in China are presented. Finally the paper gives recommendations about improving and perfecting the tropical cyclone forecasting and warning systems.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin-Marius Apostoaie


    Full Text Available This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an important role. The EWS for crises enable the prediction of the occurrence of a crisis within a specified time period. Hence, the theoretical approach of the main early warning systems for crises, the models based on signal extraction and the logit/probit models represent an important stage in preventing and fighting financial crises.

  7. A case study on the early warning of agricultural drought (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyu; Fan, Jinlong; Yang, Xiaoguang; Han, Yinjuan; Wei, Jianguo


    In general, agricultural drought always occurs under the circumstance of the comprehensive interactions among the factors of nature, economy and society. The loss due to agricultural drought in China is huge every year. Therefore the timely monitoring of agricultural drought is critical to help reduce the loss. The information of agricultural drought early warning is helpful for local governmental officials and farmers in preparation for coping with the likely happening drought. The paper presents an approach and findings of an early warning of agricultural drought which has been successfully conducted in the semiarid and rainfed farming area in Ningxia autonomous region in the northwest of China.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherly Hindra Negoro


    Full Text Available Smoking has became the serious problem which always to be the classical dynamic of health communication’s field. Through health campaign by using pictorical warning in cigarette packs, Indonesian Government has priority to reduce the number of smokers in Indonesia. Pictorical warning in cigarette packs was regard as one of communication strategic for implementing. Health campaign has outcome that could change the health behavior for the persuadee. Visualization by using image becomes persuasive communication tools cigarette packs as the communication media. EPPM model was used to analysis this case. This paper was using literature study to understand this problem.

  9. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang


    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  10. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements. (United States)

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J


    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word "WARNING", and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  11. Flow ensemble prediction for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins (United States)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Caseri, Angelica; Ramos, Maria-Helena; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Jurdy, Nicolas


    Flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, are difficult to monitor and predict at the spatial and temporal scales of interest due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) need to be taken into account to provide skillful flash flood warnings with increased warning lead time. In France, the AIGA discharge-threshold flood warning system is currently being enhanced to ingest high-resolution ensemble QPFs from convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, as well as probabilistic QPEs, to improve flash flood warnings for small-to-medium (from 10 to 1000 km²) ungauged basins. The current deterministic AIGA system is operational in the South of France since 2005. It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates of given return periods. Warnings are then provided to the French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) and regional flood forecasting offices, based on the estimated severity of ongoing events. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced to implement an operational flash flood warning system for the entire French territory. To quantify the QPF uncertainty, the COSMO-DE-EPS rainfall ensembles from the Deutscher Wetterdienst (20 members at a 2.8-km resolution for a lead time of 21 hours), which are available on the North-eastern part of France, were ingested in the hydrologic model of the AIGA system. Streamflow ensembles were produced and probabilistic flash flood warnings were derived for the Meuse and Moselle river basins and

  12. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe


    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  13. Fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahm, W.


    The situation of the nuclear fuel cycle for LWR type reactors in France and in the Federal Republic of Germany was presented in 14 lectures with the aim to compare the state-of-the-art in both countries. In addition to the momentarily changing fuilds of fuel element development and fueling strategies, the situation of reprocessing, made interesting by some recent developmnts, was portrayed and differences in ultimate waste disposal elucidated. (orig.) [de

  14. Acute incidents during anaesthesia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Incidents can occur during induction, maintenance and emergence from anaesthesia. The following acute critical incidents are discussed in this article: • Anaphylaxis. • Aspiration ..... Already used in South Africa and Malawi, a scale-up of the technique is under way in Tanzania, Rwanda and Ghana. The report found that.

  15. 76 FR 70971 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Societal Response to Tornado Warnings (United States)


    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Societal Response to Tornado Warnings AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric... developing social science, wishes to examine the societal impacts of tornado warnings, specifically the...

  16. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus. (United States)


    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating characteristics of electromagnetic, electronic, or... limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  17. Radiological incidents in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobzova, L.; Novotny, J.


    In many countries a reporting system of radiological incidents to national regulatory body exists and providers of radiotherapy treatment are obliged to report all major and/or in some countries all incidents occurring in institution. State Office for Nuclear Safety (SONS) is providing a systematic guidance for radiotherapy departments from 1997 by requiring inclusion of radiation safety problems into Quality assurance manual, which is the basic document for obtaining a license of SONS for handling with sources of ionizing radiation. For that purpose SONS also issued the recommendation 'Introduction of QA system for important sources in radiotherapy-radiological incidents' in which the radiological incidents are defined and the basic guidance for their classification (category A, B, C, D), investigation and reporting are given. At regular periods the SONS in co-operation with radiotherapy centers is making a survey of all radiological incidents occurring in institutions and it is presenting obtained information in synoptic communication (2003 Motolske dny, 2005 Novy Jicin). This presentation is another summary report of radiological incidents that occurred in our radiotherapy institutions during last 3 years. Emphasis is given not only to survey and statistics, but also to analysis of reasons of the radiological incidents and to their detection and prevention. Analyses of incidents in radiotherapy have led to a much broader understanding of incident causation. Information about the error should be shared as early as possible during or after investigation by all radiotherapy centers. Learning from incidents, errors and near misses should be a part of improvement of the QA system in institutions. Generally, it is recommended that all radiotherapy facilities should participate in the reporting, analyzing and learning system to facilitate the dissemination of knowledge throughout the whole country to prevent errors in radiotherapy.(authors)

  18. A nationwide medication incidents reporting system in The Netherlands. (United States)

    Cheung, Ka-Chun; van den Bemt, Patricia M L A; Bouvy, Marcel L; Wensing, Michel; De Smet, Peter A G M


    Many Dutch hospitals have established internal systems for reporting incidents. However, such internal systems do not allow learning from incidents that occur in other hospitals. Therefore a multicenter, information technology (IT) supported reporting system named central medication incidents registration (CMR) was developed. This article describes the architecture, implementation and current status of the CMR in The Netherlands and compare it with similar systems in other countries. Adequate IT is required to sufficiently support a multicenter reporting system. The CMR system consists of a website, a database, a web-based reporting form, an application to import reports generated in other reporting systems, an application to generate an overview of reported medication incidents, and a national warning system for healthcare providers. From the start of CMR 90 of all 93 (96.8%) hospitals and 872 of 1948 (44.8%) community pharmacies participated. Between March 2006 and March 2010 the CMR comprised 15,694 reports of incidents. In the period from March 2010 to March 2011, 1642 reports were submitted by community pharmacies in CMR and the hospitals submitted 2517 reports. CMR is similar to various systems in other countries, but it seems to use more IT applications. The CMR is developing into a nationwide reporting system of medication incidents in The Netherlands, in which hospitals, community pharmacies, mental healthcare organizations and general practitioners participate. The architecture of the system met the requirements of a nationwide reporting system across different healthcare providers.

  19. Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss


    The 2013 Late lessons from early warnings report is the second of its type produced by the European Environment Agency (EEA) in collaboration with a broad range of external authors and peer reviewers. In all 26 case study chapters have been peer reviewed from a broad range of perspectives.PART A:...

  20. Warning signals for poor performance improve human-robot interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brule, R. van den; Bijlstra, G.; Dotsch, R.; Haselager, W.F.G.; Wigboldus, D.H.J.


    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot's nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the

  1. An ABC of the Warning Signs of Hereditary Angioedema

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grumach, Anete Sevciovic; Ferraroni, Natasha; Olivares, Maria Margarita


    are common. HAE attacks may be fatal when upper-airway edema occurs, if proper treatment with a C1 inhibitor concentrate or BK receptor antagonist is not administered or an emergency tracheostomy is not performed. We propose a mnemonic method for the warning signs of HAE for the use as a diagnostic tool, i...

  2. 40 CFR 156.66 - Child hazard warning. (United States)


    ... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Child hazard warning. 156.66 Section 156.66 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) PESTICIDE PROGRAMS..., marketing, storage or use is remote (for example, an industrial use product); or (2) The pesticide is...

  3. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeyon Janet Kim


    Full Text Available Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  4. Know the Warning Signs of a Heart Attack (United States)

    ... No. 22 Know the Warning Signs of a Heart Attack What is a heart attack? Aheart attack happens when the blood vessels that ... hurting your heart muscle. Another name for a heart attack is myocardial infarction, or MI. If you have ...

  5. Warning Signals for Poor Performance Improve Human-Robot Interaction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Brule, Rik; Bijlstra, Gijsbert; Dotsch, Ron; Haselager, Pim; Wigboldus, Daniel HJ


    The present research was aimed at investigating whether human-robot interaction (HRI) can be improved by a robot’s nonverbal warning signals. Ideally, when a robot signals that it cannot guarantee good performance, people could take preventive actions to ensure the successful completion of the

  6. The Predictive Validity of the Early Warning System Tool (United States)

    Johnson, Evelyn; Semmelroth, Carrie


    The Early Warning System is a tool developed by the National High School Center to collect data on indicators including attendance, grade point average, course failures, and credits earned. These indicators have been found to be highly predictive of a student's likelihood of dropping out of high school in large, urban areas. The Early Warning…

  7. Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants (United States)

    Chorneau, Tom


    School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…

  8. Software for ASS-500 based early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article describes the software for the management of early warning system based on ASS-500 station. The software can communicate with the central computer using TCP/IP protocol. This allows remote control of the station through modem or local area network connection. The article describes Windows based user interface of the program

  9. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment (United States)

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke


    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  10. Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment (United States)

    Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie


    This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

  11. Development and Use of Early Warning Systems. SLDS Spotlight (United States)

    Curtin, Jenny; Hurwitch, Bill; Olson, Tom


    An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…


    A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

  13. Improving Early Warning Systems with Categorized Course Resource Usage (United States)

    Waddington, R. Joseph; Nam, SungJin; Lonn, Steven; Teasley, Stephanie D.


    Early Warning Systems (EWSs) aggregate multiple sources of data to provide timely information to stakeholders about students in need of academic support. There is an increasing need to incorporate relevant data about student behaviors into the algorithms underlying EWSs to improve predictors of students' success or failure. Many EWSs currently…

  14. Signal Processing Methods for Flood Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Kozionov, A.P.; Kusherbaeva, V.T.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Meijer, R.J.; Hinkelmann, R.; Nasermoaddeli, M.H.; Liong, S.Y.; Savic, D.; Fröhle, P.; Daemrich, K.F.


    We present in a data-driven approach for detection of anomalies in earthen dam (dike) behaviour that can indicate the onset of flood defence structure failure. This approach is implemented in the UrbanFlood early warning system's Artificial Intelligence component that processes dike measurements in

  15. Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators (United States)

    Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.


    Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.

  16. The Food Early Warning System Project in Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leblanc, M.


    Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.

  17. Development of Early Warning Methods for Electric Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jóhannsson, Hjörtur

    This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...

  18. A new visibility pre-warning system for the expressway (United States)

    Lin, L.; Hong, Q.; Li, G.; Han, X. B.; C-Y Lu, Steven; Ding, R.


    One of the most important factors that contribute to traffic accidents on the expressway is the low visibility, which may be caused by local or regional weather status such as agglomerate fog, rain, snow and sandstorm. A pre-warning system would be great help to prevent traffic accidents due to low visibility. Considering some problems of the existing system, such as the limited monitoring area and expensive cost, etc., a new kind of visibility pre-warning system is presented in this paper. The pre-warning system is made up of measuring nodes and communications bus. At the measuring node there is a long-distance photoelectric sensor, which is placed by means of cascade at the middle isolation strip along the expressway. Using the long-distance sensors makes it possible to monitor the visibility status of the whole expressway. CAN bus is used in this system as the communication bus to transmit information about visibility along the expressway. In virtue of the advantages of the CAN bus, a long distance network is constructed to meet the needs of the system, such as real time, reliability and low cost. With this new visibility pre-warning system, the visibility status of the whole expressway can be monitored in time and all day. In this paper, the architectural structure of the system is introduced, and also the detailed designs of the measuring node and hardware connection of the CAN bus communications is described.

  19. Public Health Measures: Alerts and Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.


    This article reviews various reactive and proactive alert and early warning systems that can be used for the identification of emerging risks to food safety, both within the European Union and at the global level. Recent developments include the establishment of a unit dedicated to emerging risks at

  20. Personal warning system for vessels under bad weather conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholte, K.; Rothkrantz, L.J.M.


    Many services provide weather forecasts, including severe weather alerts for the marine. It proves that many ships neglect the warnings because they expect to be able to handle the bad weather conditions. In order to identify possible unsafe situations the Coast Guard needs to observe marine vessel

  1. Perception and meaning of warning signals in urban context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogel, Corsin; Polack, Jean-Dominique; Castellengo, Michèle


    Perception of warning signals in urban context points out the question of their efficiency, that is, whether they are identified or not. Results show that contextual constraints influence the perceptual threshold and the identification. The classes of signals obtained can be used to determine new...

  2. Sensitivity to selected contaminants in a biological early warning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Several early warning systems for the monitoring of water quality are based on the assessment of valve opening/closing in bivalves. Tests were conducted to assess the sensitivity of the mussel Anodonta woodiana, installed on the Mosselmonitor, to seven contaminants and evaluate the usefulness of these sensors for ...

  3. A Comparison of Earthquake Early Warning Approaches: Challenges and Benefits (United States)

    Spriggs, N.; Yenier, E.; Baturan, D.


    The primary objective of an earthquake early warning (EEW) system is to provide an advance notification of an on-going event before the arrival of damaging seismic waves to a target site. This requires a robust seismic network infrastructure, rapid event characterization algorithm and fast communication system. Most of existing EEW systems operate based on two different approaches: on-site and regional. The on-site approach uses first P-wave arrivals at the target site to estimate ground motion intensity at the same site for a local warning. As the warning is issued based on local measurements of P-waves, it does not require estimations of event location and magnitude for the prediction of ground motion intensity. The regional approach, however, benefits from very first detections at front-line stations and rapidly determines event magnitude and location to estimate ground motion intensity at distant target sites using a regional ground motion model. The estimated source parameters, which are continuously updated as more stations are triggered, allow estimation of ground motion intensities at multiple sites. This enables issuing strong shaking alerts at multiple sites as well as the generation of shake and loss estimation maps for post-event emergency response. Here, we examine the two EEW approaches in terms of their inputs and outcomes, with focus on the challenges to achieve a robust early warning system and benefits of data products for each approach.

  4. Agro-meteorological early warning to reduce agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)


    Agro-meteorological early warning to reduce agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The experiences of PARBCC in Benin. April 22, 2016. Image. In Benin, extreme climate variability has threatened the food security of rural populations, with agricultural yields declining and crop losses increasing due to extreme ...

  5. Duty-to-Warn Guidelines for Mental Health Counselors. (United States)

    Costa, Luann; Altekruse, Michael


    Summarizes legal cases in which duty-to-warn was an issue. Suggests that guidelines for counselors are few and lack definition. Offers a model to guide counselors in making clinical judgments in cases and case examples to exemplify possible ethical dilemmas in the practice of counseling. Includes 36 citations. (Author/CRR)

  6. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de


    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was

  7. Systemic banking crisis early warning systems using dynamic bayesian networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dabrowski, JJ


    Full Text Available For decades, the literature on banking crisis early-warning systems has been dominated by two methods, namely, the signal extraction and the logit model methods. However, these methods, do not model the dynamics of the systemic banking system...

  8. 21 CFR 201.63 - Pregnancy/breast-feeding warning. (United States)


    ...) DRUGS: GENERAL LABELING Labeling Requirements for Over-the-Counter Drugs § 201.63 Pregnancy/breast-feeding warning. (a) The labeling for all over-the-counter (OTC) drug products that are intended for... in a permanent file for public review by the Division of Dockets Management (HFA-305), Food and Drug...

  9. Electronic gaming machine warning messages: information versus self-evaluation. (United States)

    Monaghan, Sally; Blaszczynski, Alex


    Regulators have extensively used warning signs in many health domains to enhance knowledge and shift attitudes and behaviors to reduce associated harm. The effectiveness of these signs is influenced by their physical attributes and content. Gambling warning signs traditionally focus on the following: informing individuals of the potentially risky outcomes of gambling and the odds of winning, encouraging gambling within affordable limits, and advertising counseling services. The limited evidence suggests that warning signs for gambling attract attention and improve knowledge but are generally ineffective in modifying players' thoughts and behaviors. Therefore, the authors aimed to determine the optimal content of messages that would enhance responsible gambling practices. The authors conclude that, in contrast with signs displaying probabilities or informing players of the risks associated with gambling, signs designed to encourage players to reflect on, appraise, evaluate, and self-regulate their actions have greater theoretical and empirical support. The authors comment that warning signs should promote the application of self-appraisal and self-regulation skills rather than the simple provision of information on odds and probabilities to maximize their effectiveness as a public health tool.

  10. Drunk driving warning system (DDWS). Volume 2, Field test evaluation (United States)


    The Drunk Driving Warning System (DDWS) is a vehicle-mounted device for testing driver impairment and activating alarms. The driver must pass a steering competency test (the Critical Tracking Task or CTT) in order to drive the car in a normal manner....

  11. Agro-meteorological early warning to reduce agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Agro-meteorological early warning to reduce agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The experiences of PARBCC in Benin. 22 avril 2016. Image. In Benin, extreme climate ... Examen des SIG-P dans la gestion des ressources naturelles en Afrique. Une collection d'articles (ict4d article) rend compte de résultats de ...

  12. Tilting of trucks: a driver education system and warning system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleuskens, R.J.A.


    To reduce the risk of tilting, TNO has developed a tilt warning system for commercial vehicles. This system is able to monitor vehicle weight, lateral acceleration and velocity during normal operation. The system CPU is constantly comparing the measured lateral acceleration to a calculated limit

  13. 46 CFR 153.955 - Warning signs during cargo transfer. (United States)


    ... to a dock or at anchor in port, the master shall ensure that the tankship displays a warning sign at... Cargo. (3) No Visitors. (4) No Smoking. (5) No Open Lights. (c) Each letter must be block style, black on a white background. (d) Each letter must: (1) Be 7.5 cm (approx. 3 in.) high; (2) Be 5 cm (approx...

  14. Optimization of lightning warning areas at Cape Canaveral/Kennedy Space Center


    Ceschini, Erin M.


    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Lightning is the primary weather hazard to spaceflight operations. At CCAFS/KSC, there are 13 individual lightning warning circles centered on locations with considerable outdoor operational activity. Reducing the number of individual lightning warning circles by combining existing warning circles or creating new warning areas based on lightning patterns has the potential benefit of reducing the workload of the forecasters on duty. How...

  15. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method (United States)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.


    A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  16. Evaluating the pictorial warnings on tobacco products in Arabian Gulf countries against other international pictorial warnings. (United States)

    BinDhim, Nasser F; McGeechan, Kevin; Alanazi, Anwar K T; Alanazi, Hossam M S; Alanazi, Sasoun A J; Al-Hadlaq, Solaiman M; Aljadhey, Hisham; Alhawassi, Tariq M; Alghamdi, Nadia A; Shaman, Ahmed M; Alquwayzani, Meshari S; Basyouni, Mada H


    Few assessments of pictorial warnings (PWs) on cigarette packs implemented in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been done. This article includes two cross-sectional studies. In Study 1, convenience samples of adults from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (n=111) and USA (n=115) participated in a consumer survey to rate a total of nine PWs from the GCC, Australia and the UK. Outcome measures were affective responses to PWs and concerns about smoking. In Study 2, tobacco control experts (n=14) from multiple countries rated the same PWs on a potential efficacy scale and completed one open-ended question about each. The PWs were altered to mask their country of origin. Analyses compared ranking on multiple outcomes and examined ratings by country of origin and by smoking status. In the consumer survey, participants from both countries rated the PWs from GCC lower than PWs from other countries on the two measures. The mixed-model analysis showed significant differences between the PWs from Australia and those from the GCC and between the PWs from the UK and those from the GCC (poriginating from the GCC had significantly lower ratings than those implemented in Australia and the UK. The GCC countries may need to re-evaluate the currently implemented PWs and update them periodically. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. A communication model for interlinking national tsunami early warning systems (United States)

    Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.; Esbri Palomares, M. A.


    The integration of national Tsunami Early Earning Systems (TEWS) to ocean-wide networks is a main objective of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC) tsunami programme. The intention is to interlink national TEWSs leveraging warning communication during hazards. For this purpose a communication model has been developed enabling an efficient message exchange within a centre-to-centre (C2C) communication in a system-of-systems environment. The model, designed to be robust and simple, is based on existing interoperability standards from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization of the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). For the exchange of tsunami warning bulletins the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is used. It supports geospatial referencing by addressing geocoded Points of Interests (POIs), Areas of Interest (AOIs) and Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs). Moreover it supports hazard classification by standardized criticality parameters and the transmission of attachments, e.g. situation maps. The communication model also supports the exchange of sensor observations and measurements such as sea level data or earthquake parameters. For this purpose markup languages of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) suite are used. Both communication products, warning bulletins and sensor observations, are embedded in an envelope providing addressing and routing information using the Emergency Data Exchange Language Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The communication model has been implemented in a first pilot based on Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Implementation, test and validation was started in the European research project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and is continued successively in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Stimulated by the concepts and results of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and based on its sensor integration platform

  18. Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America (United States)

    Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.


    We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a

  19. 76 FR 66074 - Small Entity Compliance Guide: Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements... (United States)


    ...] Small Entity Compliance Guide: Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and Advertisements; Availability...) is announcing the availability of a guidance for industry entitled ``Required Warnings for Cigarette... written requests for single copies of the SECG entitled ``Required Warnings for Cigarette Packages and...

  20. Longer Term Impact of Cigarette Package Warnings in Australia Compared with the United Kingdom and Canada (United States)

    Li, Lin; Borland, Ron; Yong, Hua; Cummings, Kenneth M.; Thrasher, James F.; Hitchman, Sara C.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Hammond, David; Bansal-Travers, Maansi


    This study examines the effects of different cigarette package warnings in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom up to 5 years post-implementation. The data came from the International Tobacco Control Surveys. Measures included salience of warnings, cognitive responses, forgoing cigarettes and avoiding warnings. Although salience of the UK…

  1. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements (United States)

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.


    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use. PMID:28075420

  2. 14 CFR 121.360 - Ground proximity warning-glide slope deviation alerting system. (United States)


    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Ground proximity warning-glide slope... Equipment Requirements § 121.360 Ground proximity warning-glide slope deviation alerting system. (a) No person may operate a turbine-powered airplane unless it is equipped with a ground proximity warning...

  3. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ce Shang


    Full Text Available Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  4. Integrated warning system for tsunami and storm surges in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Huating


    Tsunami and storm surges result in unusual oscillation of seal level, flooding the coastal zones and constitute the major marine disasters in China. Damage by storm surges occurs frequently. According to statistics there are 14 storm surge events exceeding 1 every year on the average. Six of them are typhoon surges and the other eight are extra-tropical surges. In general, in China, there is one severe disaster of storm surge every two years. Monitoring, forecasting and warning for storm surges, including the drop of water level, are the major part of the operational oceanographic services in China. Such a warning system has been set up and is operated by the State Oceanic Administration since 1974. The results of the historical study of tsunami in the last few years pointed out that the anomaly of sea level generated by tele-tsunamis originating in the Pacific Ocean Basin is less than 30 cm on the mainland coast, but local tsunami in the China Seas can be very dangerous. For example, more than 50,000 people were killed by a tsunami in Taiwan and in Taiwan Strait in 1781. It resulted in more deaths than any other tsunami in recorded history. However, the frequency of tsunami disaster is very low for the coast of China, averaging only one every 100 years. It is impossible to set up an independent tsunami warning system in China. It is more practical to set up an integrated warning system on tsunami and on storm surges consisting of: A sea level observing network with real time sea level data acquisition capability; A monitoring system of weather causing the storm surges and of seismic stations monitoring tsunamigenic earthquakes; A tidal prediction scheme for operational use; A forecasting scheme for storm surges and tsunami analysis; The means for warning dissemination. (author). 8 refs, 4 figs, 3 tabs

  5. New measuring and evaluation procedures for Tsunami Early Warning (United States)

    Muench, U.; Lauterjung, J.; Rudloff, A.; Gitews-Project Team


    The Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean just recently went into operation in Indonesia. The different sensor stations have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before March 2010, however, the interaction between the different component parts must be improved and optimized, personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. This current system differs from previous Tsunami Warning Systems through the application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, the modelling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System. In particular, the direct incorporation of a broad variety of different sensors provides for information from a number of sources thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used in other regions such as the Mediterranean Sea and/or for different purposes e.g. storm tides. Up to now the German Project Group has been cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to build up equipment primarily for seismological monitoring and data evaluation. Close ties have also been established with Australia, South Africa and India for the real-time exchange mainly of seismological, but also of sea level data.

  6. Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change. (United States)

    Stanton, Jessica C; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Pearson, Richard G; Akçakaya, H Resit


    Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction

  7. Cigarette Graphic Warning Labels Are Not Created Equal: They Can Increase or Decrease Smokers' Quit Intentions Relative to Text-Only Warnings. (United States)

    Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Shoben, Abigail B; Meilleur, Louise R; Klein, Elizabeth G; Tompkins, Mary Kate; Romer, Daniel; Tusler, Martin


    Cigarette graphic-warning labels elicit negative emotion. Research suggests negative emotion drives greater risk perceptions and quit intentions through multiple processes. The present research compares text-only warning effectiveness to that of graphic warnings eliciting more or less negative emotion. Nationally representative online panels of 736 adult smokers and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers were randomly assigned to view one of three warning types (text-only, text with low-emotion images, or text with high-emotion images) four times over 2 weeks. Participants recorded their emotional reaction to the warnings (measured as arousal), smoking risk perceptions, and quit intentions. Primary analyses used structural equation modeling. Participants in the high-emotion condition reported greater emotional reaction than text-only participants (bAdult = 0.21; bTeen = 0.27, p's intentions. Warning labels with images that elicit more negative emotional reaction are associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions in adults and teens relative to text-only warnings. However, graphic warnings containing images which evoke little emotional reaction can backfire and reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. This research is the first to directly manipulate two emotion levels in sets of nine cigarette graphic warning images and compare them with text-only warnings. Among adult and teen smokers, high-emotion graphic warnings were associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. Low-emotion graphic warnings backfired and tended to reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. Policy makers should be aware that merely placing images on cigarette packaging is insufficient to increase smokers' risk perceptions and quit intentions. Low-emotion graphic warnings will not necessarily produce desired population-level benefits relative to text-only or high-emotion warnings.

  8. Happy Cycling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geert Jensen, Birgitte; Nielsen, Tom


    Artiklens formål er at diskutere oplevede kvaliteter og adfærdsaspekter af mobilitet med udgangspunkt i spørgsmålet om cykling i byer og relationen mellem design og adfærd. Artiklen tager afsæt i et studie forløb der involverede studerende fra Urban Design, Industriel Design Arkitektskolen Aarhus...... og Interaktions Design, Aarhus Universitet under opgave teamet: ”Happy Cycling City – Aarhus”. Udfordringen i studieopgaven var at vise nye attraktive løsningsmuligheder i forhold til cyklens og cyklismens integration i byrum samt at påpege relationen mellem design og overordnede diskussioner af...

  9. Graphic cigarette pack warnings do not produce more negative implicit evaluations of smoking compared to text-only warnings. (United States)

    Van Dessel, Pieter; Smith, Colin Tucker; De Houwer, Jan


    Graphic warnings (GWs) on cigarette packs are widely used internationally with the aim of reducing smoking behavior. In the current study, we investigated whether GWs influence implicit evaluations of smoking, a potential moderator of smoking behavior, as measured with an Implicit Association Test (IAT). Results showed that viewing a GW did not produce more negative implicit evaluations of smoking for daily smokers, occasional smokers, or non-smokers, compared to viewing a text-only warning. If anything, effects were in the direction of evaluations of smoking being more positive after certain participants (i.e., daily and occasional smokers) viewed a GW. We also did not find any beneficial effects of GWs on explicit evaluations of smoking. These results contrast with the observation that non-smokers and occasional smokers (but not daily smokers) believed that GWs would be more effective than the text-only warnings. We discuss implications and limitations of these findings and provide recommendations for improving the effectiveness of cigarette pack warnings on implicit evaluations.

  10. Safe cycling!

    CERN Document Server

    Anaïs Schaeffer


    The HSE Unit will be running a cycling safety campaign at the entrances to CERN's restaurants on 14, 15 and 16 May. Pop along to see if they can persuade you to get back in the saddle!   With summer on its way, you might feel like getting your bike out of winter storage. Well, the HSE Unit has come up with some original ideas to remind you of some of the most basic safety rules. This year, the prevention campaign will be focussing on three themes: "Cyclists and their equipment", "The bicycle on the road", and "Other road users". This is an opportunity to think about the condition of your bike as well as how you ride it. From 14 to 16 May, representatives of the Swiss Office of Accident Prevention and the Touring Club Suisse will join members of the HSE Unit at the entrances to CERN's restaurants to give you advice on safe cycling (see box). They will also be organising three activity stands where you can test your knowle...

  11. Air shower simulation for WASAVIES: warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles. (United States)

    Sato, T; Kataoka, R; Yasuda, H; Yashiro, S; Kuwabara, T; Shiota, D; Kubo, Y


    WASAVIES, a warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles (SEPs), is under development by collaboration between several institutes in Japan and the USA. It is designed to deterministically forecast the SEP fluxes incident on the atmosphere within 6 h after flare onset using the latest space weather research. To immediately estimate the aircrew doses from the obtained SEP fluxes, the response functions of the particle fluxes generated by the incidence of monoenergetic protons into the atmosphere were developed by performing air shower simulations using the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code system. The accuracy of the simulation was well verified by calculating the increase count rates of a neutron monitor during a ground-level enhancement, combining the response function with the SEP fluxes measured by the PAMELA spectrometer. The response function will be implemented in WASAVIES and used to protect aircrews from additional SEP exposure. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:

  12. Critical incident stress management. (United States)

    Lim, J J; Childs, J; Gonsalves, K


    Recent studies have indicated implementation of the CISM Program has impacted and reduced the cost of workers' compensation claims for stress related conditions and the number of lost work days (Ott, 1997; Western Management Consultants, 1996). Occupational health professionals need to be ready to develop and implement a comprehensive critical incident stress management process in anticipation of a major event. The ability to organize, lead, or administer critical incident stress debriefings for affected employees is a key role for the occupational health professional. Familiarity with these concepts and the ability to identify a critical incident enhances value to the business by mitigating the stress and impact to the workplace. Critical Incident Stress Management Systems have the potential for decreasing stress and restoring employees to normal life function--a win/win situation for both the employees and the organization.

  13. Marine Animal Incident Database (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Large whale stranding, death, ship strike and entanglement incidents are all recorded to monitor the health of each population and track anthropogenic factors that...

  14. Police Incident Blotter (Archive) (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — The Police Blotter Archive contains crime incident data after it has been validated and processed to meet Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) standards, published on a...

  15. Prediction of Safety Incidents (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Safety incidents, including injuries, property damage and mission failures, cost NASA and contractors thousands of dollars in direct and indirect costs. This project...

  16. 2011 Japanese Nuclear Incident (United States)

    EPA’s RadNet system monitored the environmental radiation levels in the United States and parts of the Pacific following the Japanese Nuclear Incident. Learn about EPA’s response and view historical laboratory data and news releases.

  17. GEOFON, GITEWS and the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (United States)

    Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Hoffmann, T. L.


    After the Mw=9.3 Sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004, which generated a tsunami that affected the entire Indian Ocean region and caused approximately 230,000 fatalities, the German government funded the German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) Project. The GEOFON group of GFZ Potsdam was nominated to develop and implement the seismological component of the GITEWS system. This poster presentation describes the concept of the GITEWS Earthquake Monitoring System (EMS) and reports on its present status and progress of implementation. The major challenge for an EMS within a tsunami warning system is to determine earthquake source parameters in terms of location, size and possibly rupture propagation as quickly as possible, in order to allow counter measures before a potential tsunami may hit coastal areas. Tsunamigenic earthquakes usually occur along subduction zones, which are often close to coastal lines. In the Indian Ocean this is particularly true for the Sunda Trench off the shore of Indonesia and the Macran subduction zone off the shore of Iran. For an Indian Ocean monitoring system where short warning times are a requirement, a dense real-time network of seismic stations in Indonesia is therefore essential. It must be supplemented by a substantial number of stations in other countries surrounding the Indian Ocean. International cooperation and real-time data exchange across political boundaries are essential for successful tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean region. Within the GITEWS project, up to 40 new broadband and strong motion stations are being installed in the Indian Ocean region until 2010. Up to 22 new stations are set up in Indonesia and another 18 stations distributed over Sri Lanka, Maldives, Yemen, Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar and Israel. Real-time communication is provided by private VSAT communication systems. Another challenging task within the GITEWS project is the design and implementation of efficient and fast acquisition

  18. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.


    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  19. Information Security Incident Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. I. Persanov


    Full Text Available The present report highlights the points of information security incident management in an enterprise. Some aspects of the incident and event classification are given. The author presents his view of the process scheme over the monitoring and processing information security events. Also, the report determines a few critical points of the listed process and gives the practical recommendations over its development and optimization.

  20. [Establishment of malaria early warning system in Jiangsu Province III effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination]. (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Ming; Zhou, Hua-Yun; Liu, Yao-Bao; Cao, Yuan-Yuan; Cao, Jun; Gao, Qi


    To evaluate the effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination in Jiangsu Province through the operation of the national automatic early warning system of infectious diseases. The malaria early warning information was collected from the automatic early warning information subsystem in the national information system for diseases control and prevention. Malaria early warning signals were analyzed from September 1 to December 31, 2012. The statistical analysis was conducted for the completion rates of case investigation within 3 days before and after the application of malaria early warning information system. Jiangsu Province received 85 mobile phone short messages (SMS) of malaria case from early warning system from September 1 to December 31, 2012. After judgments, 23 cases were deleted including 8 repeated cases and 15 cases that were excluded through the microscopy examination and epidemiological investigation by the confirmation of county CDC. From July to December in 2012, the monthly completion rates of case investigation within 3 days were 55.56%, 78.57%, 90.00%, 100%, 100% and 100%, respectively. The completion rates of case investigation within 3 days in July, August, September and October were significantly different by chi2 test ( chi2 = 10.66, P early warning system. The malaria warning system from the national infectious diseases can effectively improve the response to malaria cases for primary CDC. It also plays an important role for the timely confirmation and diagnosis of malaria cases.

  1. Verification of warnings at the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (United States)

    Kalin, Lovro


    The role of national meteorological services is increasingly related to warnings. This is particularly stressed due to more frequent extreme events and severe weather. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia various warnings products are introduced, from Civil protection service and MeteoAlarm to different specialized products, such as heat spells, cold spells, forest fire warnings, etc. Verification of warnings is a relatively new field, with spurious methods and diverse data. Still, various results of warnings will be presented in this paper, mostly through contingency tables and related verification scores. These results provide an insight to the forecast system, it's properties and give a good feed-back to the forecasters.

  2. Risk management: application of early warning systems to emergency plans (United States)

    Garcia, C.; Sterlacchini, S.; Pasuto, A.; de Amicis, M.


    Warning System and emergency plans are two fundamental elements of risk management and governance, but unfortunately, most of the times, they are developed independently one from the other, as sequential steps not necessary linked. The main goal of this research is to develop a methodology for applying Early Warning Systems - Community Based to the emergency plan using the results of social surveys and quantitative risk assessment, taking into account the administrative structure and the planning system of the study area, as well as the legislative obligations of each entity involved in the risk governance and emergency management. Using a integrative scientific and social approach to natural hazards the research aim to contribute to fill the gap between scientists, policy makers, stakeholders and community. Initially applied in Comunità Montana Valtellina di Tirano, Italy, the methodology involves the application of two comprehensive surveys. The first is addressed to stakeholders (including policy makers, emergency managers, emergency volunteers, consultants and scientists) in order to determine their needs, points of view, concerns and constraints. The second survey is addressed specifically to local community to assess risk perception, awareness, needs, capacity and level of trust towards stakeholders, besides asking for their willingness to participate in future risk communication activities. The Early Warning System developed includes all the stages of the early warning process (hazard evaluation and forecasting; warning and dissemination and public response) and would be based on a multidisciplinary partnership that takes into account the different actors involved in the risk management in order to accomplish a more reliable and credible result, including an emergency plan specifically designed for each study area. After evaluating the results of the surveys, information and education campaigns will be developed with the objective of reducing vulnerability

  3. Artificial Neural Networks for Earthquake Early-Warning (United States)

    Boese, M.; Erdik, M.; Wenzel, F.


    The rapid urbanization and industrial development in areas of high seismic hazard increase the threat to human life and the vulnerability of industrial facilities by earthquakes. As earthquake prediction is elusive and, most likely, will not be achievable in near future, early-warning systems play a key role in earthquake loss reduction. Seismic waves propagate with significant lower velocity than information on these waves can be passed along to a vulnerable area or facility using modern telemetry systems. Within shortest time an earthquake early-warning system estimates the ground motion that will be caused by the oscillating seismic waves in the endangered area. Dependent on the predicted possible damage appropriate automatisms for loss reduction (such as the stoppage of trains or the interruption of gas pipelines) are triggered and executed some seconds to minutes before the devastating waves actually arrive. The Turkish megacity Istanbul faces a seismic hazard of particular severity due to its proximity to the complex fault system in the Marmara region. The likelihood for an seismic event of moment magnitude above 7.2 to occur within the next 30 years is estimated to be 70%. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early-Warning System (IERREWS) is an important contribution to be prepared for future earthquakes in the region. The system is operated by the Kandilli Observatory and the Earthquake Research Institute of the Bogazici University in cooperation with other agencies. The early-warning part of IERREWS consists of ten strong motion stations with 24-bit resolution, communication links and processing facilities. The accelerometers are installed on the shoreline of the Marmara Sea and are operated in on-line mode for continuous and near-real time transfer of data. Using the example of the IERREWS station configuration and seismic background of the Marmara region we present an approach that considers the problem of earthquake early-warning as a pattern

  4. Smokers’ and E-Cigarette Users’ Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia A. Wackowski


    Full Text Available Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Participants were open to e-cigarette warnings and provided the strongest reactions to statements warning that e-liquid/e-vapor or e-cigarettes can be poisonous, contain toxins, or are “not a safe alternative to smoking”. However, many also noted that these statements were exaggerated, potentially misleading, and could scare smokers away from reducing their harm by switching to e-cigarettes. Opinions on the Food and Drug Administration’s proposed nicotine addiction warning and warnings that e-cigarettes had not been approved for smoking cessation or had unknown health effects were mixed. Participants perceived MarkTen’s advertisement warning to be stronger and more noticeable than Vuse’s. Care should be taken in developing e-cigarette warnings given their relative recentness and potential for harm reduction compared to other tobacco products. Additional research, including with varied audiences, would be instructive.

  5. Cannabis Users' Recommended Warnings for Packages of Legally Sold Cannabis: An Australia-Centered Study. (United States)

    Malouff, John M; Johnson, Caitlin E; Rooke, Sally E


    Introduction: Although cannabis use creates health risks, governments have recently been legalizing either medical use or leisure use. These governments can mandate health warnings on cannabis packages. Prior research examined recommended warnings of cannabis experts. The aim of this study was to obtain suggested cannabis health and safety warnings from cannabis users. Methods: We used a media release, Facebook postings, and announcements in university classes to seek individuals who had used cannabis at least once according to their own report. Using online data collection software that keeps participants anonymous, we asked the individuals to suggest a warning that governments could mandate on cannabis packages. Results: In total, 288 users suggested warnings. Categorizing the warnings into content categories led to six warning topics: (1) risk of harm to mental health and psychological functioning; (2) risk of operating machinery while under the influence; (3) short-term physical side effects; (4) responsible use; (5) long-term negative physical effects; and (6) dependence, addiction, or abuse. The user-suggested warnings overlapped with six expert-recommended warnings identified in prior survey research and included two content areas that did not feature in expert-recommended warnings: short-term physical side effects and the importance of responsible use. Conclusions: The results are consistent with prior findings that some youths perceive cannabis use as potentially harmful. The current findings provide possible new content for warnings on cannabis packages.

  6. Human factors field evaluation of automotive headway maintenance/collision warning devices. (United States)

    Dingus, T A; McGehee, D V; Manakkal, N; Jahns, S K; Carney, C; Hankey, J M


    Three on-road studies were conducted to determine how headway maintenance and collision warning displays influence driver behavior. Visual perspective, visual perspective with a pointer, visual perspective combined with an auditory warning, discrete visual warning, and discrete auditory warning were assessed during both coupled headway and deceleration events. Results indicate that when drivers are provided with salient visual information regarding safe headways, they utilize the information and increase their headway when appropriate. Auditory warnings were less effective than visual warnings for increasing headways but may be helpful for improving reaction time during events that require deceleration. Drivers were somewhat insensitive to false alarm rates, at least during short-term use. Finally, and most important, driver headway maintenance increased by as much as 0.5 s when the appropriate visual display was used. However, a study to investigate the longterm effects of such displays on behavior is strongly recommended prior to mass marketing of headway maintenance/collision warning devices.

  7. Management of an incident of failed sterilization of surgical instruments in a dental clinic in Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Chi-Chung Cheng


    Conclusion: Rapid response is extremely crucial in minimizing the impact of this incident and relieving the anxiety of the affected patients. Proper recording and documentation of autoclave cycles and regular auditing should be enforced to prevent similar incidents.

  8. Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline (United States)

    Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.


    Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

  9. Sepsis in Obstetrics: Clinical Features and Early Warning Tools. (United States)

    Parfitt, Sheryl E; Bogat, Mary L; Hering, Sandra L; Ottley, Charlotte; Roth, Cheryl

    Morbidity and mortality associated with sepsis has gained widespread attention on a local, state, and national level, yet, it remains a complicated disorder that can be difficult to identify in a timely manner. Sepsis in obstetric patients further complicates the diagnosis as alterations in physiology related to pregnancy can mask sepsis indicators normally seen in the general population. If early signs of sepsis go unrecognized, septic shock can develop, leading to organ dysfunction and potential death. Maternal early warning tools have been designed to assist clinicians in recognizing early indications of illness. Through use of clinical pathway-specific tools, disease processes may be detected early, subsequently benefitting patients with aggressive treatment management and intervention.This article is the second in a series of three that discuss the importance of sepsis and septic shock in pregnancy. Risk factors, causes of sepsis, signs and symptoms, and maternal early warning tools are discussed.

  10. Tsunamis detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Joseph, Antony


    The devastating impacts of tsunamis have received increased focus since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the most devastating tsunami in over 400 years of recorded history. This professional reference is the first of its kind: it provides a globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami warning systems (TWS): International and Regional. Featured are comparative assessments of detection, monitoring, and real-time reporting technologies. The challenges of detection through remote measuring stations are also addressed, as well as the historical and scientific aspects of tsunamis.

  11. Design And Construction Of Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring Station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring Station, used ONLINE environmental radiation monitoring and early warning network, has high sensitive radiation detection and it can send the alarm signal quickly by the Internet network to the emergency management office. Its gamma Probes are one NaI(Tl) detector and three GM detectors. The NaI(Tl) detector is used to monitor Spectrum environmental radiation and identify the Isotopes, the other are used to detect high dose rate of gamma rays. This instrument must tolerate a wide range of ambient temperature and strong temperature slopes when used in outdoor. However, the gain of photomultiplier tube, amplifier and ADC must be stabilized by pulsed LEDs used as precision reference light sources. (author)

  12. Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system (United States)

    Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.


    Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions. PMID:27767065

  13. Seismic Activity: Public Alert and Warning: Legal Implications (United States)

    Zocchetti, D.


    As science and technology evolve in ways that increase our ability to inform the public of potentially destructive seismic activity, there are significant legal issues for consideration. Even though countries and even states within the United States have differing legal tenets that could either change or at least re-shape the outcome of specific legal questions that this session will be pondering, there are fundamental legal principals that will permeate. It is often said that the law lags behind society and in particular its technological developments. No doubt in the area of warning the public of impending destructive forces of nature or society, the law will need to do some catching up. The law is probably adequately developed for at least some preliminary discussion of the key issues. No matter the legal scheme, if there is a failure or perceived failure in the system to warn people of a pending emergencies, albeit an earthquake, tsunami, or other predictable event, those who are harmed or believe they are harmed will seek relief under the law. Every day there are situations wherein the failure to warn or to adequately warn is key, such as with faulty or defective consumer products, escaped prisoners, and police high-speed vehicle chases. With alert and warning systems for disaster, however, we have a unique set of facts. Generally, the systems and their failures occur during emergencies or at least during situations under apparently exigent circumstances when the disaster's predictability is widely recognized as less than 100 percent. The law, in particular United States tort law, has been particularly lenient when people and organizations are operating during compressed timeframes and their actions are generally considered necessary to address circumstances relative to public safety. The legal system has been forgiving when the actor that failed or appeared to fail was government. The courts have liberally applied the principal of sovereign immunity to

  14. A pocket warning γ-dosimeter with numerical display

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.R.


    A pocket warning dosimeter is described. It provides alarms (continuous tone and a flashing red light) when a presettable dose has been accumulated in the range .064 - 16.4 rads (0.64 - 164 μGy). This warning level can be selected in nine steps of 2 with a switch inside the dosimeter. The dose rate is indicated by a series of sound pulses whose repetition rate is proportional to the dose rate. At 1 rad/h (10 mGy/h) about 17 pluses/minute are emitted. The accumulated dose up to 20 rads (0.2 Gy) is displayed in steps of 1 mrad (10 μGy) with a liquid crystal display. A red LED lights before battery failure occurs. The effects of changes in temperature, battery voltage, dose rate and photon energy upon dosimeter sensitivity are presented. Finally, the applications of the dosimeter are discussed. (auth)

  15. Upgrade of the early warning system in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarvari, A.; Cindro, M.; Krizman, M.; Mitic, D.


    The main task of the Early Warning System in Slovenia is to warn the competent authorities of the increase of external radiation. Only an efficient Ewes can cope with the situation that we have in case of nuclear or radiation accident. For such purposes the measuring locations have to fulfil some basic radiation monitoring criteria (population density, distance from NPP, precipitation, land use). In this article the results of each criterion as well as the total set is described. The results of the applied criteria are presented with colour contour images. The purpose of this article is to allocate the critical areas on the territory of Slovenia that have to be considered in final determination of the appropriate measuring locations. (author)

  16. Warning Method of Coal Bursting Failure Danger by Electromagnetic Radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang-Jian Liu


    Full Text Available Electromagnetic radiation (EMR can reflect the stress state and deformation level of coal, yet its warning indexes correlated with coal properties and roof caving is poorly understood. The laboratory observations of EMR effects of coal samples bursting failure and in situ investigations in the process of roof caving are presented in this paper. EMR peak with increasing stress is discussed when the failure of coal samples happens, which provides an explanation to EMR signals positively correlated well with the stress loaded. The linearly increasing relation is also found between EMR intensity and the uniaxial compressive strength, and EMR maximum amplitudes and pulses behave a logarithmic accretion tendency with bursting energy indexes of coal. By in situ investigations, it is well found that EMR amplitude can effectively warn coal deformation and failure based on the critical value 120 mV proposed from experiments.

  17. Nuclear radiation-warning detector that measures impedance (United States)

    Savignac, Noel Felix; Gomez, Leo S; Yelton, William Graham; Robinson, Alex; Limmer, Steven


    This invention is a nuclear radiation-warning detector that measures impedance of silver-silver halide on an interdigitated electrode to detect light or radiation comprised of alpha particles, beta particles, gamma rays, X rays, and/or neutrons. The detector is comprised of an interdigitated electrode covered by a layer of silver halide. After exposure to alpha particles, beta particles, X rays, gamma rays, neutron radiation, or light, the silver halide is reduced to silver in the presence of a reducing solution. The change from the high electrical resistance (impedance) of silver halide to the low resistance of silver provides the radiation warning that detected radiation levels exceed a predetermined radiation dose threshold.

  18. Bioethics and deliberative democracy: five warnings from Hobbes. (United States)

    Trotter, Griffin


    Thomas Hobbes is one of the most ardent and thoroughgoing opponents of participatory democracy among Western political philosophers. Though Hobbes's alternative to participatory democracy-assent by subjects to rule by an absolute sovereign-no longer constitutes a viable political alternative for Westerners, his critique of participatory democracy is a potentially valuable source of insight about its liabilities. This essay elaborates five theses from Hobbes that stand as cogent warnings to those who embrace participatory democracy, especially those (such as most bioethicists) advocating for deliberative democracy based on a rational consensus model. In light of these warnings, the author suggests an alternative, modus vivendi approach to deliberative democracy that would radically alter the current practice of bioethics.

  19. Earthquake warning system for infrastructures : a scoping analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodsky, Nancy S.; O' Connor, Sharon L.; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Fogleman, William E. (GRIT, Inc., Albuquerque, NM); Vugrin, Eric D.; Corbet, Thomas Frank, Jr.; Brown, Theresa Jean


    This report provides the results of a scoping study evaluating the potential risk reduction value of a hypothetical, earthquake early-warning system. The study was based on an analysis of the actions that could be taken to reduce risks to population and infrastructures, how much time would be required to take each action and the potential consequences of false alarms given the nature of the action. The results of the scoping analysis indicate that risks could be reduced through improving existing event notification systems and individual responses to the notification; and production and utilization of more detailed risk maps for local planning. Detailed maps and training programs, based on existing knowledge of geologic conditions and processes, would reduce uncertainty in the consequence portion of the risk analysis. Uncertainties in the timing, magnitude and location of earthquakes and the potential impacts of false alarms will present major challenges to the value of an early-warning system.

  20. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì


    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  1. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps (United States)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.


    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  2. Insect-vision inspired collision warning vision processor for automobiles


    Liñán-Cembrano, G.; Carranza-González, L.; Rind, Claire; Zarandy, A.; Soininen, Martti; Rodríguez-Vázquez, Ángel


    Vision is expected to play important roles for car safety enhancement. Imaging systems can be used to enlarging the vision field of the driver. For instance capturing and displaying views of hidden areas around the car which the driver can analyze for safer decision-making. Vision systems go a step further. They can autonomously analyze the visual information, identify dangerous situations and prompt the delivery of warning signals. For instance in case of road lane departure, if an overtakin...

  3. Your Menstrual Cycle (United States)

    ... during your menstrual cycle What happens during your menstrual cycle The menstrual cycle includes not just your period, but the ... tool is based on a sample 28-day menstrual cycle, but every woman is different in how ...

  4. Vrancea early warning system for Bucharest and industrial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wenzel, Friedemann; Bonjer, K. P.


    Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km. Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the mega cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk due to strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and issue warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)

  5. Marketing strategies and warning labels on children's toothpaste. (United States)

    Basch, Corey Hannah; Rajan, Sonali


    The overconsumption of toothpaste has negative consequences, particularly for children. This study's objectives were to describe misleading marketing strategies used in selling children's fluoridated toothpaste and identify warning label characteristics. Two researchers independently coded the packaging from 26 over-the-counter toothpastes that are specifically marketed for children. Aggressive marketing strategies targeting children were identified: every toothpaste in this sample displayed at least 1 children's animated character, 50% had at least 1 picture of a food item, 92.3% stated they were flavored and 26.9% depicted a full swirl of toothpaste, directly contradicting dentist recommendations for young children. Further, on most toothpaste tubes, warnings regarding fluoride overconsumption for young children were only listed on the back and in very small font. Misleading marketing strategies are regularly used in selling children's toothpaste as if it is a food product, while warnings regarding overconsumption among youth are minimized. Dental hygienists are in an important position to help parents of young children implement safe oral care practices. Copyright © 2014 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

  6. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović


    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  7. Financial distress in Brazilian banks: an early warning model,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Sérgio Rosa


    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aims to propose an early warning model for predicting financial distress events in Brazilian banking institutions. Initially, a set of economic-financial indicators is evaluated, suggested by the risk management literature for identifying situations of bank insolvency and exclusively taking public information into account. For this, multivariate logistic regressions are performed, using as independent variables financial indicators involving capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity. The empirical analysis was based on a sample of 142 financial institutions, including privately and publicly held and state-owned companies, using monthly data from 2006 to 2014, which resulted in panel data with 12,136 observations. In the sample window there were nine cases of Brazilian Central Bank intervention or mergers and acquisitions motivated by financial distress. The results were evaluated based on the estimation of the in-sample parameters, out-of-sample tests, and the early warning model signs for a 12-month forecast horizon. These obtained true positive rates of 81%, 94%, and 89%, respectively. We conclude that typical balance-sheet indicators are relevant for the early warning signs of financial distress in Brazilian banks, which contributes to the literature on financial intermediary credit risk, especially from the perspective of bank supervisory agencies acting towards financial stability.

  8. Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor (United States)

    Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.


    The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

  9. Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems (United States)

    Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.


    After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

  10. Vrancea early warning system for Bucharest and industrial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km.Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk given by strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)

  11. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.


    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at

  12. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS) (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.


    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at

  13. Prescriber compliance with black box warnings in older adult patients. (United States)

    Ricci, Judith R; Coulen, Charmaine; Berger, Jan E; Moore, Marsha C; McQueen, Angela; Jan, Saira A


    Patients prescribed medications with US Food and Drug Administration-issued black box warnings (BBWs) warrant additional vigilance by prescribers because these drugs can cause serious adverse drug events. Seniors are at greater risk for adverse drug events due to increased medication burden and greater health vulnerability. To improve our understanding of the prescribing and patient-monitoring practices of physicians prescribing medications with a BBW to patients age >or=65 years in an ambulatory care setting. A retrospective cohort study of administrative pharmacy and medical claims identified 58,190 patients age >or=65 years in the Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey beneficiary population with >or=1 claim for >or=1 of the 8 targeted medications between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2005. Medications included carbamazepine, amiodarone, ketoconazole, loop diuretics, methotrexate, cyclosporine, metformin and combinations, and cilostazol. Patients were followed 12 months from the index prescription date to evaluate prescriber compliance with BBWs using operationalized definitions of compliance. Patients prescribed drugs with a drug-laboratory warning had lower rates of prescriber BBW compliance (0.7%-24.9%) than patients prescribed drugs with a drug-disease warning (84.7%-90.2%). Administrative claims analysis identified low rates of prescriber compliance with BBWs in managing patients age >or=65 years. Claims analysis may be a cost-effective strategy to monitor prescriber compliance with BBWs in older patients at higher risk.

  14. Different black box warning labeling for same-class drugs. (United States)

    Panagiotou, Orestis A; Contopoulos-Ioannidis, Despina G; Papanikolaou, Panagiotis N; Ntzani, Evangelia E; Ioannidis, John P A


    Black box warnings (BBWs) are the strongest medication-related safety warnings in a drug's labeling information and highlight major risks. Absence of a BBW or asynchronous addition of a BBW among same-class drugs could have major implications. We identified the 20 top-selling drugs in 2008 (10 with BBWs and 10 without BBWs on their label) that belonged to different drug classes. We collected labeling information on all drugs belonging in these 20 classes, and recorded differences in the presence and timing of acquisition of BBWs for same-class drugs. Across the 20 evaluated drug classes, we identified 176 different agents, of which 7 had been withdrawn for safety reasons. The reasons for the withdrawals became BBWs in other same-class agents only in two of the seven cases. Differences were identified in 9 of the 20 classes corresponding to 15 BBWs that were not present in all drugs of the same class. The information for 10 of the 15 different BBWs were included in the labels of same-class drugs as simple warnings or text, while it was absent entirely in 5 BBWs. The median interval from the time the BBW had appeared in another drug of the same class was 66 months. Differences in BBW labeling in same-class drugs are common and shape impressions about the safety of similar agents. BBW labeling needs to become more systematic.

  15. Flood forecasting and early warning system for Dungun River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hafiz, I; Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Fukami, K; Hanapi, M N; Livia, L; Nor, M D


    Floods can bring such disasters to the affected dweller due to loss of properties, crops and even deaths. The damages to properties and crops by the severe flooding are occurred due to the increase in the economic value of the properties as well as the extent of the flood. Flood forecasting and warning system is one of the examples of the non-structural measures which can give early warning to the affected people. People who live near the flood-prone areas will be warned so that they can evacuate themselves and their belongings before the arrival of the flood. This can considerably reduce flood loss and damage and above all, the loss of human lives. Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is a runoff analysis model converting rainfall into runoff for a given river basin. The simulation can be done using either ground or satellite-based rainfall to produce calculated discharge within the river. The calculated discharge is used to generate the flood inundation map within the catchment area for the selected flood event using Infowork RS.

  16. Diversity in warning coloration is easily recognized by avian predators. (United States)

    Arenas, L M; Stevens, M


    Warning coloration is a widespread strategy to alert predators about prey unprofitability. The success of this strategy partly depends on predators being able to learn and recognize certain signals as indicators of toxicity, and theory predicts that this is easier if signals converge on similar colours. However, the diversity in warning signal form is astonishing, contradicting predictions. Here, we quantified ladybird signal diversity with respect to avian vision, measuring how unique and discernible each signal is from one another. In addition, we measured signal conspicuousness against a series of backgrounds, namely an average green, average brown, and where we collected each species, to determine whether signals are more contrasting against the ladybirds' local substrates than compared to average ones. This allowed us to establish whether there are local adaptations in conspicuousness that promote signal diversity. We found that while ladybird signals are unique and recognizable, specialist species are more contrasting against the background they are most commonly found on. However, overall our study suggests that warning signals have evolved to be effective against a wide range of natural backgrounds, partly explaining the success of this strategy in nature. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society for Evolutionary Biology.

  17. Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques (United States)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.


    Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

  18. Raising awareness of Graves' orbitopathy with early warning cards. (United States)

    Mitchell, Anna L; Hickey, Janis; Vaidya, Bijay; Mason, Rhianne; Ajjan, Ramzi; Zammitt, Nicola; Perros, Petros; Dayan, Colin


    Clinically significant Graves' orbitopathy (GO) develops in about 25% of those with Graves' disease (GD); most cases of GD in the UK are managed by endocrinologists. Despite this, patients report significant delays before a diagnosis of GO is made. Measures to increase awareness of the early signs of GO and establishing a fast-track referral pathway to specialist care should overcome these delays and potentially improve outcomes. We aimed to determine whether issuing a "GO early warning card" to all GD patients raises awareness of GO and facilitates early diagnosis, what percentage of cards result in a telephone contact, the number of "false reports" from card carriers and patient perceptions of the cards. We designed cards, detailing common GO symptoms and a telephone number for patients developing symptoms. Cards were distributed to 160 GD patients, without known GO, attending four endocrine clinics in the UK (December 2015-March 2016). We recorded telephone contacts over twelve months from when the last card was distributed and gathered patient feedback. The early warning cards were well received by patients in general. Over twelve months, ten telephone contacts from nine patients, all related to ocular symptoms, were received (6% of cards issued). Nine calls resulted in an additional clinic review (for eight patients), and four diagnoses of GO were made. This pilot study demonstrates that it is feasible to distribute GO early warning cards in clinic, and that they can be used to facilitate an early diagnosis of GO. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. LED-Based High-Voltage Lines Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eldar MUSA


    Full Text Available LED-based system, running with the current of high-voltage lines and converting the current flowing through the line into the light by using a toroid transformer, has been developed. The transformer’s primary winding is constituted by the high voltage power line. Toroidal core consists of two equal parts and the secondary windings are evenly placed on these two parts. The system is mounted on the high-voltage lines as a clamp. The secondary winding ends are connected in series by the connector on the clamp. LEDs are supplied by the voltage at the ends of secondary. Current flowing through highvoltage transmission lines is converted to voltage by the toroidal transformer and the light emitting LEDs are supplied with this voltage. The theory of the conversion of the current flowing through the line into the light is given. The system, running with the current of the line and converting the current into the light, has been developed. System has many application areas such as warning high voltage lines (warning winches to not hinder the high-voltage lines when working under the lines, warning planes to not touch the high-voltage lines, remote measurement of high-voltage line currents, and local illumination of the line area

  20. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne


    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  1. A Multi-User Game-Theoretical Multipath Routing Protocol to Send Video-Warning Messages over Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (United States)

    Mezher, Ahmad Mohamad; Igartua, Mónica Aguilar; de la Cruz Llopis, Luis J.; Segarra, Esteve Pallarès; Tripp-Barba, Carolina; Urquiza-Aguiar, Luis; Forné, Jordi; Gargallo, Emilio Sanvicente


    The prevention of accidents is one of the most important goals of ad hoc networks in smart cities. When an accident happens, dynamic sensors (e.g., citizens with smart phones or tablets, smart vehicles and buses, etc.) could shoot a video clip of the accident and send it through the ad hoc network. With a video message, the level of seriousness of the accident could be much better evaluated by the authorities (e.g., health care units, police and ambulance drivers) rather than with just a simple text message. Besides, other citizens would be rapidly aware of the incident. In this way, smart dynamic sensors could participate in reporting a situation in the city using the ad hoc network so it would be possible to have a quick reaction warning citizens and emergency units. The deployment of an efficient routing protocol to manage video-warning messages in mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs) has important benefits by allowing a fast warning of the incident, which potentially can save lives. To contribute with this goal, we propose a multipath routing protocol to provide video-warning messages in MANETs using a novel game-theoretical approach. As a base for our work, we start from our previous work, where a 2-players game-theoretical routing protocol was proposed to provide video-streaming services over MANETs. In this article, we further generalize the analysis made for a general number of N players in the MANET. Simulations have been carried out to show the benefits of our proposal, taking into account the mobility of the nodes and the presence of interfering traffic.Finally, we also have tested our approach in a vehicular ad hoc network as an incipient start point to develop a novel proposal specifically designed for VANETs. PMID:25897496

  2. A Multi-User Game-Theoretical Multipath Routing Protocol to Send Video-Warning Messages over Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Mohamad Mezher


    Full Text Available The prevention of accidents is one of the most important goals of ad hoc networks in smart cities. When an accident happens, dynamic sensors (e.g., citizens with smart phones or tablets, smart vehicles and buses, etc. could shoot a video clip of the accident and send it through the ad hoc network. With a video message, the level of seriousness of the accident could be much better evaluated by the authorities (e.g., health care units, police and ambulance drivers rather than with just a simple text message. Besides, other citizens would be rapidly aware of the incident. In this way, smart dynamic sensors could participate in reporting a situation in the city using the ad hoc network so it would be possible to have a quick reaction warning citizens and emergency units. The deployment of an efficient routing protocol to manage video-warning messages in mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs has important benefits by allowing a fast warning of the incident, which potentially can save lives. To contribute with this goal, we propose a multipath routing protocol to provide video-warning messages in MANETs using a novel game-theoretical approach. As a base for our work, we start from our previous work, where a 2-players game-theoretical routing protocol was proposed to provide video-streaming services over MANETs. In this article, we further generalize the analysis made for a general number of N players in the MANET. Simulations have been carried out to show the benefits of our proposal, taking into account the mobility of the nodes and the presence of interfering traffic. Finally, we also have tested our approach in a vehicular ad hoc network as an incipient start point to develop a novel proposal specifically designed for VANETs.

  3. A Multi-User Game-Theoretical Multipath Routing Protocol to Send Video-Warning Messages over Mobile Ad Hoc Networks. (United States)

    Mezher, Ahmad Mohamad; Igartua, Mónica Aguilar; de la Cruz Llopis, Luis J; Pallarès Segarra, Esteve; Tripp-Barba, Carolina; Urquiza-Aguiar, Luis; Forné, Jordi; Sanvicente Gargallo, Emilio


    The prevention of accidents is one of the most important goals of ad hoc networks in smart cities. When an accident happens, dynamic sensors (e.g., citizens with smart phones or tablets, smart vehicles and buses, etc.) could shoot a video clip of the accident and send it through the ad hoc network. With a video message, the level of seriousness of the accident could be much better evaluated by the authorities (e.g., health care units, police and ambulance drivers) rather than with just a simple text message. Besides, other citizens would be rapidly aware of the incident. In this way, smart dynamic sensors could participate in reporting a situation in the city using the ad hoc network so it would be possible to have a quick reaction warning citizens and emergency units. The deployment of an efficient routing protocol to manage video-warning messages in mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs) has important benefits by allowing a fast warning of the incident, which potentially can save lives. To contribute with this goal, we propose a multipath routing protocol to provide video-warning messages in MANETs using a novel game-theoretical approach. As a base for our work, we start from our previous work, where a 2-players game-theoretical routing protocol was proposed to provide video-streaming services over MANETs. In this article, we further generalize the analysis made for a general number of N players in the MANET. Simulations have been carried out to show the benefits of our proposal, taking into account the mobility of the nodes and the presence of interfering traffic. Finally, we also have tested our approach in a vehicular ad hoc network as an incipient start point to develop a novel proposal specifically designed for VANETs.

  4. Radiation incidents in dentistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovelock, D.J.


    Most dental practitioners act as their own radiographer and radiologist, unlike their medical colleagues. Virtually all dental surgeons have a dental X-ray machine for intraoral radiography available to them and 40% of dental practices have equipment for dental panoramic tomography. Because of the low energy of X-ray equipment used in dentistry, radiation incidents tend to be less serious than those associated with other aspects of patient care. Details of 47 known incidents are given. The advent of the 1985 and 1988 Ionising Radiation Regulations has made dental surgeons more aware of the hazards of radiation. These regulations, and general health and safety legislation, have led to a few dental surgeons facing legal action. Because of the publicity associated with these court cases, it is expected that there will be a decrease in radiation incidents arising from the practice of dentistry. (author)

  5. Early warning systems in the UK: variation in content and implementation strategy has implications for a NHS early warning system. (United States)

    Patterson, Caroline; Maclean, Fiona; Bell, Cameron; Mukherjee, Elora; Bryan, Leoni; Woodcock, Thomas; Bell, Derek


    The Royal College of Physicians report Acute medical care: the right person, in the right setting--first time advocates the introduction of a standardised NHS Early Warning Score (NEWS). Recommendations for the optimum scoring system have been released by NHS Quality Improvement Scotland (NHS QIS) and the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE). This study reviewed clinical practice in London and Scotland against national guidelines. All hospitals responsible for acute medical admissions completed a telephone survey (n = 25 London; n = 23 Scotland). All used an early warning system at point of entry to care. Eleven different systems were used in London and five in Scotland. Forty per cent of London hospitals and 70% of Scottish hospitals incorporated the minimum data set recommended by NICE. Overall, Scotland was closer to achieving standardisation. If NEWS is implemented, consideration of the NHS QIS approach may support a more consistent response.

  6. Early Warning Implementation Guide: "Using the Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) and Local Data to Identify, Diagnose, Support, and Monitor Students in Grades 1-12" (United States)

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2014


    The purpose of this guide is to provide information on how to use early warning data, including the Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS), to identify, diagnose, support and monitor students in grades 1-12. It offers educators an overview of EWIS and how to effectively use these data in conjunction with local data by following a…

  7. Early Warning System Implementation Guide: For Use with the National High School Center's Early Warning System Tool v2.0 (United States)

    Therriault, Susan Bowles; Heppen, Jessica; O'Cummings, Mindee; Fryer, Lindsay; Johnson, Amy


    This Early Warning System (EWS) Implementation Guide is a supporting document for schools and districts that are implementing the National High School Center's Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0. Developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the guide and tool support the establishment and…

  8. Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia (United States)

    Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi


    In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to

  9. Graphic warnings and text warning labels on cigarette packages in Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Awareness and perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoda Jradi


    CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that while graphic warning labels are perceived as necessary on cigarette packages the currently used messages are not clear and therefore do not serve their intended purposes. Measures should be undertaken to ensure that pictorial cigarette labels used in Saudi Arabia are culturally and ethnically appropriate and are rotated on a regular basis to ensure salience among smokers and nonsmokers alike.

  10. Design and evaluation of multimedia security warnings for the interaction between humans and industrial robots (United States)

    Fruth, Jana; Kraetzer, Christian; Dittmann, Jana


    In this document a multi-media security warning design approach for automated production scenarios with industrial robots is introduced. This first approach is based on and adapts design principles of common security programs and a German VDI standard for safety warnings design. We focus on direct human-to-robot interaction scenarios, e.g. the online-programming of industrial robots, because of their potential indirect safety impacts, which could be caused by malicious codes infection of a robots control computer. We designed ten different multi-media security warnings, composed of visual and acoustical information. Visual information of warnings is transported via a traffic light metaphor (symbolizing three different threat levels), different warn icons (symbolizing properties of malicious codes) and instructions icons to programmers or operators and additional textual information. With an acknowledgment button in the middle of the warning, the programmer's confirmation of the reception of the warning is verified. Additionally, three different acoustical signals also indicate the threat level of the warning. Furthermore, an evaluation is presented, which uses concepts known from usability testing (method of loud thinking, questionnaire, time measurement). The aim is to evaluate general design criteria of our developed security warnings and tendency of user perception for further advancement of our warnings design.

  11. Evaluation of the National Weather Service Extreme Cold Warning Experiment in North Dakota. (United States)

    Chiu, Cindy H; Vagi, Sara J; Wolkin, Amy F; Martin, John Paul; Noe, Rebecca S


    Dangerously cold weather threatens life and property. During periods of extreme cold due to wind chill, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues wind chill warnings to prompt the public to take action to mitigate risks. Wind chill warnings are based on ambient temperatures and wind speeds. Since 2010, NWS has piloted a new extreme cold warning issued for cold temperatures in wind and nonwind conditions. The North Dakota Department of Health, NWS, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated in conducting household surveys in Burleigh County, North Dakota, to evaluate this new warning. The objectives of the evaluation were to assess whether residents heard the new warning and to determine if protective behaviors were prompted by the warning. This was a cross-sectional survey design using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology to select a statistically representative sample of households from Burleigh County. From 10 to 11 April 2012, 188 door-to-door household interviews were completed. The CASPER methodology uses probability sampling with weighted analysis to estimate the number and percentage of households with a specific response within Burleigh County. The majority of households reported having heard both the extreme cold and wind chill warnings, and both warnings prompted protective behaviors. These results suggest this community heard the new warning and took protective actions after hearing the warning.

  12. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Result of recent two years - (United States)

    Shimoyama, T.; Doi, K.; Kiyomoto, M.; Hoshiba, M.


    Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) started to provide Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) to the general public in October 2007. It was followed by provision of EEW to a limited number of users who understand the technical limit of EEW and can utilize it for automatic control from August 2006. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan definitely means information of estimated amplitude and arrival time of a strong ground motion after fault rupture occurred. In other words, the EEW provided by JMA is defined as a forecast of a strong ground motion before the strong motion arrival. EEW of JMA is to enable advance countermeasures to disasters caused by strong ground motions with providing a warning message of anticipating strong ground motion before the S wave arrival. However, due to its very short available time period, there should need some measures and ideas to provide rapidly EEW and utilize it properly. - EEW is issued to general public when the maximum seismic intensity 5 lower (JMA scale) or greater is expected. - EEW message contains origin time, epicentral region name, and names of areas (unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 of one prefecture) where seismic intensity 4 or greater is expected. Expected arrival time is not included because it differs substantially even in one unit area. - EEW is to be broadcast through the broadcasting media(TV, radio and City Administrative Disaster Management Radio), and is delivered to cellular phones through cell broadcast system. For those who would like to know the more precise estimation and smaller earthquake information at their point of their properties, JMA allows designated private companies to provide forecast of strong ground motion, in which the estimation of a seismic intensity as well as arrival time of S-wave are contained, at arbitrary places under the JMA’s technical assurance. From October, 2007 to August, 2009, JMA issued 11 warnings to general public expecting seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater, including M=7.2 inland

  13. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan


    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  14. Incidents in nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franzen, L.F.; Wienhold, W.


    With reference to the incident list of the Ministry for the period 1971-74, Prof. Bechert has expressed a lot of questions and statements in a letter to the Government. The letter is quoted in full. Inadequate conclusions drawn by Prof. Bechert in connection with quotations from daily newspapers and other documents are put right. (HP) [de

  15. Lightning incidents in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myagmar Doljinsuren


    Full Text Available This is one of the first studies that has been conducted in Mongolia on the distribution of lightning incidents. The study covers a 10-year period from 2004 to 2013. The country records a human death rate of 15.4 deaths per 10 million people per year, which is much higher than that of many countries with similar isokeraunic level. The reason may be the low-grown vegetation observed in most rural areas of Mongolia, a surface topography, typical to steppe climate. We suggest modifications to Gomes–Kadir equation for such countries, as it predicts a much lower annual death rate for Mongolia. The lightning incidents spread over the period from May to August with the peak of the number of incidents occurring in July. The worst lightning affected region in the country is the central part. Compared with impacts of other convective disasters such as squalls, thunderstorms and hail, lightning stands as the second highest in the number of incidents, human deaths and animal deaths. Economic losses due to lightning is only about 1% of the total losses due to the four extreme weather phenomena. However, unless precautionary measures are not promoted among the public, this figure of losses may significantly increase with time as the country is undergoing rapid industrialization at present.

  16. Fire Incident Reporting Manual (United States)


    the result of an incident that requires (or should require) treatment by a practitioner of medicine , a registered emergency medical technician, or a...UNANNOUNCED AIRCRAFT EMERGENCYS ~~PRIOR TO TAKE OFF OR AFTERLADN 5 FUEL OPERATIONS REQUIRING 1AREING G A FIRE10 ARRESTING GEAR’BARRIER FR . ENGAGEMENTS AND

  17. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal


    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  18. Planetary Defense Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project (United States)

    Nambiar, Shrrirup; Hussein, Alaa; Silva-Martinez, Jackelynne; Reinert, Jessica; Gonzalez, Fernando


    Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning

  19. Architecture for Mitigating Short-Term Warning Cosmic Threats: READI Project (United States)

    Nambiar, Shrrirup P.; Hussein, Alaa; Silva-Martinez, Jackelynne; Reinert, Jessica; Gonzalez, Fernando


    Earth is being constantly bombarded by a large variety of celestial bodies and has been since its formation 4.5 billion years ago. Among those bodies, mainly asteroids and comets, there are those that have the potential to create large scale destruction upon impact. The only extinction-level impact recorded to date was 65 million years ago, during the era of dinosaurs. The probability of another extinction-level, or even city-killer, impact may be negligible, but the consequences can be severe for the biosphere and for our species. Therefore it is highly imperative for us to be prepared for such a devastating impact in the near future, especially since humanity is at the threshold of wielding technologies that allow us to do so. Majority of scientists, engineers, and policymakers have focused on long-term strategies and warning periods for Earth orbit crossing Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), and have suggested methods and policies to tackle such problems. However, less attention has been paid to short warning period NEO threats. Such NEOs test current technological and international cooperation capabilities in protecting ourselves, and can create unpredictable devastation ranging from local to global scale. The most recent example is the Chelyabinsk incident in Russia. This event has provided a wakeup call for space agencies and governments around the world towards establishing a Planetary Defense Program. The Roadmap for EArth Defense Initiative (READI) is a project by a team of international, intercultural, and interdisciplinary participants of the International Space University's Space Studies Program 2015 hosted by Ohio University, Athens, OH proposing a roadmap for space agencies, governments, and the general public to tackle NEOs with a short warning before impact. Taking READI as a baseline, this paper presents a technical description of methodologies proposed for detection and impact mitigation of a medium-sized comet (up to 800m across) with a short-warning

  20. Reporting in vitro fertilization cycles to the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology database: where have all the cycles gone? (United States)

    Kulak, David; Jindal, Sangita K; Oh, Cheongeun; Morelli, Sara S; Kratka, Scott; McGovern, Peter G


    To assess the relationship between live birth rates (LBRs) and the incidence of under-reported cycles by IVF clinics. Cohort study. Not applicable. All patients undergoing IVF cycles in the aforementioned clinics. Not applicable. The reporting percentage (RP), defined as number of cycles with reported pregnancy rates divided by total cycles performed. Results from cryopreservation cycles are only presented by SART if an embryo transfer occurs. Thus, RP decreases as incidence of embryo or oocyte banking cycles increases. The LBRs in women aged Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The effect of cigarette plain packaging on individuals' health warning recall. (United States)

    Al-Hamdani, Mohammed


    To examine the extent to which increasingly plainer packaging might increase recall of health warnings. A 4 (pack ID levels) x 2 (smoking status: smokers and non-smokers) between-subjects design in which participants were randomly assigned to view one package. Two hundred and twenty students from three universities in Nova Scotia, Canada, participated in the survey. Participants were asked to recall the health warning on their package. A sequential binary logistic regression test to examine whether plain packaging and/or smoking status affects health warning recall. The odds of recalling the correct health warnings were significantly higher for the two plainest packages relative to the original package. The odds of recalling the correct health warning were also higher for non-smokers relative to smokers. The results provide compelling evidence that health warnings on plain packages can be more easily recalled. Copyright © 2013 Longwoods Publishing.

  2. Status Quo of Lanzhou Earthquake Early Warning System and Analysis of Its Key Technical Indicators (United States)

    Tian, Xiufeng; Zeng, Wenhao; Pan, Zhangrong; Zhang, Weidong; Yuan, Jie; Zhang, Xuan


    The composition, network configuration and system operation condition of Lanzhou earthquake early warning system are introduced in details, and the factors influencing the early warning performance are discussed. Then, in combination of the status quo of system, the key technical indicators are analyzed, and the distribution map of consumed time for earthquake early warning is drawn. The result indicates that the average distance among stations in observation network is large, which casts an obvious influence on the time validity of early warning. Under the set conditions, the radius of blind zone ranges between 30.3km and 39.2km, and the early warning time increases as the epicentral distance enlarges. In addition, the radius of blind zone is influenced by the focal depth. Furthermore, influenced by the station distribution and density, the distribution of consumed time for earthquake early warning is extremely uneven and characteristic of obvious regional difference.

  3. The Ancona Early Warning Centre, Instrumentation and Continuous Monitoring of the Landslide (United States)

    Cardellini, S.


    The 'Grande frana di Ancona' is an deep-seated landslide reactivated in 1982 after a long period of precipitation. The landslide involves clay and silty clay layers (Pliocene-Pleistocene), fractured with different OCR parameter, alternated with thin sand levels. Overlapped sliding zones are active (maximum depth: 100-120 m, maximum depth 1982 event is 75 m bgl). All the investigations aimed at the consolidation preliminary design in 2000, but the plan concluded that a final consolidation was impossible. Ancona Administration decided then to 'live with the landslide' reducing nevertheless the risk for the people living there. In 2002 a regional law was specifically issued for the people living in the landslide, to give Ancona Administration the responsibility of creating an Early Warning System and an Emergency Plan for people. It's active a surface monitoring system based on 7 total stations and 33 geodetic GPS integrated by a subsurface in place geotechnical system based on 3 DMS multiparametric columns installed down to 95 m depth. Surface Monitoring system The combination of the different instruments: GPS, Automatic Robotic Stations and the clinometric sensors allows us to monitor in the 3D (3D, X, Y, Z) a great number of points previously identified, to keep them under supervision with different measuring technical and from different control positions. The adoption of the geodetic GPS at dual frequency assure an high quality of the GPS measures, and a greater versatility at all the system. The measuring cycle is set up on 30 minutes, but in emergency or after a long rainy period, the system can operate on every points of the dual frequency GPS net also in Real Time RTK, and with the 7 Automatic Robotic Stations. Geotechnical monitoring (DMS) The in place Geotechnical Monitoring System DMS (patents and trade mark CSG srl -Italy) was installed in February 2009. It is made by n°3 Modular Dynamic System columns positioned inside borehole 100 m depth. DMS columns

  4. Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France (United States)

    Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline


    The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

  5. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning




    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  6. CISN Earthquake Early Warning: ShakeAlert Hybrid Branch (United States)

    Brown, H.; Lim, I.; Allen, R. M.; Böse, M.; Cua, G. B.; Heaton, T. H.; Cisn Earthquake Early Warning Project Team


    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is developing an integrated, statewide earthquake early warning (EEW) system for California. In summer 2009 the CISN completed a three-year proof-of-concept study, analyzing three EEW algorithms for viability in California: (1) Onsite, run by the California Institute of Technology, (2) Virtual Seismologist, run by the Swiss Seismological Service, and (3) ElarmS, run by the University of California at Berkeley. The study successfully detected earthquakes and accurately predicted the resulting ground shaking. As of December 2010 the CISN EEW team is halfway through a second three-year project to build an end-to-end prototype early warning system capable of delivering warning to a small group of test users. This new system is called CISN ShakeAlert. An area of ongoing research is the Hybrid Branch: a new, integrated algorithm to calculate event magnitude and location in realtime. The Hybrid Branch takes advantage of the best aspects of each of the original test algorithms. The Hybrid Branch will be able to rapidly recognize and assess an event using only a single station’s P-wave data, as OnSite does, but it will also combine data from multiple stations in a network-based approach, as Virtual Seismologist and ElarmS do. This will give the Hybrid Branch the speed of a single-station EEW method with the reliability of a multi-station method. One of the challenges of the Hybrid Branch is how to progress from a single station description of a given event to a multi-station view of the same event. The authors use a Bayesian approach to combine event information and adapt to changing data availability. Output from the Hybrid Branch will be sent to the ShakeAlert Decision Module, which consolidates event information from a variety of sources and generates earthquake alerts.

  7. The Effect of Sonic Booms on Earthquake Warning Systems (United States)

    Wurman, Gilead; Haering, Edward A, Jr.; Price, Michael J.


    Several aerospace companies are designing quiet supersonic business jets for service over the United States. These aircraft have the potential to increase the occurrence of mild sonic booms across the country. This leads to interest among earthquake warning (EQW) developers and the general seismological community in characterizing the effect of sonic booms on seismic sensors in the field, their potential impact on EQW systems, and means of discriminating their signatures from those of earthquakes. The SonicBREWS project (Sonic Boom Resistant Earthquake Warning Systems) is a collaborative effort between Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. (SWS) and NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This project aims to evaluate the effects of sonic booms on EQW sensors. The study consists of exposing high-sample-rate (1000 sps) triaxial accelerometers to sonic booms with overpressures ranging from 10 to 600 Pa in the free field and the built environment. The accelerometers record the coupling of the sonic boom to the ground and surrounding structures, while microphones record the acoustic wave above ground near the sensor. Sonic booms are broadband signals with more high-frequency content than earthquakes. Even a 1000 sps accelerometer will produce a significantly aliased record. Thus the observed peak ground velocity is strongly dependent on the sampling rate, and increases as the sampling rate is reduced. At 1000 sps we observe ground velocities that exceed those of P-waves from ML 3 earthquakes at local distances, suggesting that sonic booms are not negligible for EQW applications. We present the results of several experiments conducted under SonicBREWS showing the effects of typical-case low amplitude sonic booms and worst-case high amplitude booms. We show the effects of various sensor placements and sensor array geometries. Finally, we suggest possible avenues for discriminating sonic booms from earthquakes for the purposes of EQW.

  8. Developing an Early Warning System for Machu Picchu Pueblo, Peru. (United States)

    Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony


    The town of Machu Picchu, Peru, is linked to Ollantaytambo and Cusco by rail and serves as the main station for the 400,000+ tourists visiting Machu Picchu. Due to the tourist industry the town grown threefold in population in the past two decades. Today, due to the limited availability of low-lying ground, construction is occurring higher up on the unstable valley slopes. The town is located at 2000 m asl while the surrounding peaks rise to over 4000 m asl. Slopes range from 70° in the surrounding granite mountains. The town has grown on the downstream right bank of the Vilcanota River, at the confluence of the Alcamayo and the Aguas Calientes Rivers. Broadly, a dry winter season runs from May to August with a rainy summer season running from October to March. The rainy months provide around 80% of the annual rainfall average, which ranges from 1,600 to 2,300 mm. Seasonal temperature variations are considered modest. An assessment of the geohazards in and around the town has been undertaken. Those of particular concern to the town are 1) large rocks falling onto the town and/or the rail line, 2) flash flooding by any one of its three rivers, and 3) mudflows and landslides. To improve the existing municipal warning system a prototype early warning system incorporating suitable technologies that could monitor weather, river flow and slope satability was installed along the Aguas Calientes River in 2009. This has a distributed modular construction allowing most components to be installed, maintained, swapped, salvaged, repaired and/or replaced by local technicians. A diverse set of candidate power, communication and sensor technologies was deployed and evaluated. Most of the candidate technologies had never been deployed in similar terrain, altitude or weather. The successful deployment of the prototype proved that it is technically feasible to develop early warning capacity in the town.

  9. World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN IV: Clinical pharmacology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbotosho Grace O


    Full Text Available Abstract A World Antimalarial Resistance Network (WARN database has the potential to improve the treatment of malaria, through informing current drug selection and use and providing a prompt warning of when treatment policies need changing. This manuscript outlines the contribution and structure of the clinical pharmacology component of this database. The determinants of treatment response are multi-factorial, but clearly providing adequate blood concentrations is pivotal to curing malaria. The ability of available antimalarial pharmacokinetic data to inform optimal dosing is constrained by the small number of patients studied, with even fewer (if any studies conducted in the most vulnerable populations. There are even less data relating blood concentration data to the therapeutic response (pharmacodynamics. By pooling all available pharmacokinetic data, while paying careful attention to the analytical methodologies used, the limitations of small (and thus underpowered individual studies may be overcome and factors that contribute to inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic parameters defined. Key variables for pharmacokinetic studies are defined in terms of patient (or study subject characteristics, the formulation and route of administration of the antimalarial studied, the sampling and assay methodology, and the approach taken to data analysis. Better defining these information needs and criteria of acceptability of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD studies should contribute to improving the quantity, relevance and quality of these studies. A better understanding of the pharmacokinetic properties of antimalarials and a more clear definition of what constitutes "therapeutic drug levels" would allow more precise use of the term "antimalarial resistance", as it would indicate when treatment failure is not caused by intrinsic parasite resistance but is instead the result of inadequate drug levels. The clinical pharmacology component

  10. Automation warning system against driver falling asleep in-traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dymov I. S.


    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the development of a new automation recognition and warning system against driver falling asleep in-traffic. The issue of the physical condition control of professional drivers on the voyage has been considered both on the part of efficiency and quality of its determination, and in terms of improving overall road safety. The existing and widely used devices for determining the transition to the stage of sleep of drivers being in-traffic have been analyzed. Their advantages and disadvantages have been detected. It has been established that the main negative factor preventing the mass introduction of pre-existing warning systems is the need to wear one or another monitoring device before starting the movement. Carried out project research work has proposed a complex monitoring of the physical and physiological condition of driving person as a new warning method against falling asleep in-traffic. The proposed variations of algorithmic implementations can be used in long-distance trucks and passenger vehicles. Two different versions of the automatic control status of the driver physical condition have been considered. The first approach has proposed the use of sensors of the biometric parameters of body, pulsus, body temperature, and hands on wheel pressure sensors. The second one has proposed using the tracking cameras. Both for the first and second versions of the automation system a toolset of control devices is being installed inside the vehicle and have no physical, so irritating action on the driver. Software approach for the false operation rejection of the devices has been developed. The paper considers the flow diagrams of the automatic systems and logical structure of analysis and decision-making. The set of impacts intended for driver's awakening has been proposed. The conclusion about the engineering perspectives of the proposed approach of projected automation systems has been made.

  11. Estimation for aerial detection effectiveness with cooperation efficiency factors of early-warning aircraft in early-warning detection SoS under BSC framework (United States)

    Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu


    In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.

  12. Constipation and Incident CKD. (United States)

    Sumida, Keiichi; Molnar, Miklos Z; Potukuchi, Praveen K; Thomas, Fridtjof; Lu, Jun Ling; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Kovesdy, Csaba P


    Constipation is one of the most prevalent conditions in primary care settings and increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, potentially through processes mediated by altered gut microbiota. However, little is known about the association of constipation with CKD. In a nationwide cohort of 3,504,732 United States veterans with an eGFR ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , we examined the association of constipation status and severity (absent, mild, or moderate/severe), defined using diagnostic codes and laxative use, with incident CKD, incident ESRD, and change in eGFR in Cox models (for time-to-event analyses) and multinomial logistic regression models (for change in eGFR). Among patients, the mean (SD) age was 60.0 (14.1) years old; 93.2% of patients were men, and 24.7% were diabetic. After multivariable adjustments, compared with patients without constipation, patients with constipation had higher incidence rates of CKD (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.11 to 1.14) and ESRD (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.18) and faster eGFR decline (multinomial odds ratios for eGFR slope constipation associated with an incrementally higher risk for each renal outcome. In conclusion, constipation status and severity associate with higher risk of incident CKD and ESRD and with progressive eGFR decline, independent of known risk factors. Further studies should elucidate the underlying mechanisms. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  13. Cancer incidence among firefighters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukkala, Eero; Martinsen, Jan Ivar; Weiderpass, Elisabete


    .51), adenocarcinoma of the lung (SIR=1.90, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.62), and mesothelioma (SIR=2.59, 95% CI 1.24 to 4.77). By contrast with earlier studies, the incidence of testicular cancer was decreased (SIR=0.51, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Some of these associations have been observed previously, and potential...

  14. Improvements of existing early warning system in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomisa, T.


    The gamma radiation early warning system in Croatia was established in 1993. The first configuration contained 3 measuring stations connected to the monitoring center and up today the system is expanded with 5 additional locations. Each location is equipped with the MFM202 gamma-monitor and additional equipment that is not unique for all locations. This difference in remote equipment configuration caused by different communication medium used, is the reason to improve existing system trough equipment unification introducing PLC unit in the standard configuration. Such configuration enables additional functions such as automatic alerting and collecting meteorological data. (author)

  15. The Indian Ocean disaster: Tsunami physics and early warning dilemmas (United States)

    Lomnitz, Cinna; Nilsen-Hofseth, Sara

    Understanding the physics of tsunamis may save lives, especially near the epicenter of a large earthquake where the danger is highest and early warning is least likely to be effective.Normal modes of Earth are standing waves of the Love (toroidal) or the Rayleigh (spheroidal) variety. The Indian Ocean tsunami may have been partly or wholly caused by low-order spheroidal modes of the Earth such as 0S2, 0S3, and 0S4, that may have excited a waveguide—a layer that confines and guides a propagating wave—in the ocean.

  16. Persepsi Remaja Nonperokok terhadap Pictorial Health Warnings di Kota Gorontalo


    Sapiun, Zulfiayu; Goi, Misrawatie; Herawati, Lucky


    The 13-15 year old male smoker increased from 23.4% in 2007 to 29.3% in 2013. Meanwhile, the age of the initial smoker begin to shift from 15-24 years to 10-14 years. To anticipate the rate of increase in the number of smokers, especially in the younger generation, the Indonesian Government has obliged tobacco companies to include Pictorial Health Warnings (PHW) on the cigarette packaging they produce. PHW is an image contained in cigarette packaging that contains about smoking can causes can...

  17. Predictions of flood warning threshold exceedance computed with logistic regression (United States)

    Diomede, Tommaso; Marsigli, Chiara; Stefania Tesini, Maria


    A method based on logistic regression is proposed for the prediction of river level threshold exceedance at different lead times (from +6h up to +42h). The aim of the study is to provide a valuable tool for the issue of warnings by the authority responsible of public safety in case of flood. The role of different precipitation periods as predictors for the exceedance of a fixed river level has been investigated, in order to derive significant information for flood forecasting. Based on catchment-averaged values, a separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" rainfall amounts as independent variables is attempted. In particular, the following flood-related precipitation periods have been considered: (i) the period from 1 to n days before the forecast issue time, which may be relevant for the soil saturation ("state of the catchment"), (ii) the last 24 hours, which may be relevant for the current water level in the river ("state of the river"), and (iii) the period from 0 to x hours in advance with respect to the forecast issue time, when the flood-triggering precipitation generally occurs ("state of the atmosphere"). Several combinations and values of these predictors have been tested to optimise the method implementation. In particular, the period for the precursor antecedent precipitation ranges between 5 and 45 days; the current "state of the river" can be represented by the last 24-h precipitation or, as alternative, by the current river level. The flood-triggering precipitation has been cumulated over the next 18-42 hours, or the previous 6-12h, according to the forecast lead time. The proposed approach requires a specific implementation of logistic regression for each river section and warning threshold. The method performance has been evaluated over several catchments in the Emilia-Romagna Region, northern Italy, which dimensions range from 100 to 1000 km2. A statistical analysis in terms of false alarms, misses and related scores was carried out by using

  18. Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations (United States)

    Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano


    The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process

  19. Nowcasting, forecasting and warning for ionospheric propagation: supporting databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Jakowski


    Full Text Available The use of data is essential in the context of nowcasting, forecasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions, with roles to play in the development, evaluation and operation of models and services. Descriptions are given of three databases that have been established in the course of the COST 271 Action: a database of prompt ionospheric soundings, an extension to a database generated by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radars, and a database intended to facilitate evaluation of TEC estimation methods. Each database includes some background information, a description of the contents and interface, and instructions as to how to gain access to it.

  20. Cancer incidence among waiters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reijula, Jere; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Lynge, Elsebeth


    AIMS: To study cancer risk patterns among waiters in the Nordic countries. METHODS: We identified a cohort of 16,134 male and 81,838 female waiters from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. During the follow-up period from 1961 to 2005, we found that 19,388 incident cancer cases were...... diagnosed. Standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was defined as the observed number of cancer cases divided by the expected number, based on national age, time period and gender-specific cancer incidence rates in the general population. RESULTS: The SIR of all cancers in waiters, in the five countries combined......, was 1.46 (95% CI 1.41-1.51) in men and 1.09 (1.07-1.11) in women. In male waiters, the SIR decreased from 1.79 (1.63-1.96) in 1961-1975, to 1.33 (1.26-1.40) in 1991-2005, but remained stable among women. The SIR among male waiters was highest for cancers in the pharynx (6.11; 95% CI 5.02-7.37), oral...

  1. Contaminated Mexican steel incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    This report documents the circumstances contributing to the inadvertent melting of cobalt 60 (Co-60) contaminated scrap metal in two Mexican steel foundries and the subsequent distribution of contaminated steel products into the United States. The report addresses mainly those actions taken by US Federal and state agencies to protect the US population from radiation risks associated with the incident. Mexico had much more serious radiation exposure and contamination problems to manage. The United States Government maintained a standing offer to provide technical and medical assistance to the Mexican Government. The report covers the tracing of the source to its origin, response actions to recover radioactive steel in the United States, and return of the contaminated materials to Mexico. The incident resulted in significant radiation exposures within Mexico, but no known significant exposure within the United States. Response to the incident required the combined efforts of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, Department of State, and US Customs Service (Department of Treasury) personnel at the Federal level and representatives of all 50 State Radiation Control Programs and, in some instances, local and county government personnel. The response also required a diplomatic interface with the Mexican Government and cooperation of numerous commercial establishments and members of the general public. The report describes the factual information associated with the event and may serve as information for subsequent recommendations and actions by the NRC. 8 figures

  2. Occupational Survey Report: Aerospace Control and Warning Systems, AFSC 1C5X1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library


    This report presents the results of an occupational survey of the Aerospace Control and Warning Systems career ladder completed by the Occupational Analysis Flight, Air Force Occupational Measurement...

  3. Impacts of human behavior heterogeneity on the benefits of probabilistic flood warnings (United States)

    Du, E.; Rivera, S. J.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Myers, L.


    Flood predictions and warnings are intended to reduce flood-related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient for mitigating flooding damage, as people have varying responses and reactions after receiving flood warnings. This study develops an agent-based modeling framework that considers human behavioral heterogeneity and residential density in flood warning-response systems. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood-warning scenarios. The results show that the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings (i.e., flood warnings with high prediction accuracies and/or longer lead times) is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk-tolerant manner, especially in high-density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavior heterogeneity on the benefit of flood warnings, and thus highlight the importance of considering human behavior heterogeneity in simulating flood warning-response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavior heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate the benefit of flood warnings.

  4. Advanced driver assistance systems: Using multimodal redundant warnings to enhance road safety. (United States)

    Biondi, Francesco; Strayer, David L; Rossi, Riccardo; Gastaldi, Massimiliano; Mulatti, Claudio


    This study investigated whether multimodal redundant warnings presented by advanced assistance systems reduce brake response times. Warnings presented by assistance systems are designed to assist drivers by informing them that evasive driving maneuvers are needed in order to avoid a potential accident. If these warnings are poorly designed, they may distract drivers, slow their responses, and reduce road safety. In two experiments, participants drove a simulated vehicle equipped with a forward collision avoidance system. Auditory, vibrotactile, and multimodal warnings were presented when the time to collision was shorter than five seconds. The effects of these warnings were investigated with participants performing a concurrent cell phone conversation (Exp. 1) or driving in high-density traffic (Exp. 2). Braking times and subjective workload were measured. Multimodal redundant warnings elicited faster braking reaction times. These warnings were found to be effective even when talking on a cell phone (Exp. 1) or driving in dense traffic (Exp. 2). Multimodal warnings produced higher ratings of urgency, but ratings of frustration did not increase compared to other warnings. Findings obtained in these two experiments are important given that faster braking responses may reduce the potential for a collision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.S. Murty


    Full Text Available Canada has coastlines on three of the four oceans on the globe, namely, the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans are connected to the Arctic Ocean in the north, but still they are three distinct oceans, and need three individual tsunami warning systems. Tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are not as well documented as in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From what is known, tsunamis in the Arctic Ocean are rare and probably are small in amplitude. Because of very low population density, around the Canadian Arctic, at present, there is no priority for a tsunami warning system for Arctic Canada. For the Pacific Ocean, a tsunami warning system is in existence since 1948. In at least one sense, the warning aspects of the tsunami warning system for the Pacific coast of Canada, is relatively simple and straight forward, because it involves only the federal government (PSEPC and the provincial government of British Columbia (PEP. For the Atlantic Ocean, A tsunami warning system is now being established. The warning aspects will be some what more complex for eastern Canada, since it not only involves the federal government, but also five provinces, namely, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Quebec. The Alaska tsunami warning center (ATWC in Palmer, Alaska, provides tsunami warnings for both Pacific and Atlantic Canada.

  6. Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites (United States)

    Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.


    As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

  7. Short oestrous cycles post partum in cattle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edqvist, L.E.; Frederiksson, G.; Kindahl, H.; Larsson, K.; Madej, A.


    Oestrous cycles of shorter duration (8-12 days) are usually found when either dairy or beef cows resume cyclicity post partum. The incidence of short cycle is so high that it should be considered a normal physiological phenomenon. Strong evidence in beef cattle suggests that the short cycle follows an ovulation (probably the same in dairy cows). In dairy cows it is likely that a premature release of prostaglandin is responsible for the short luteal phase (probably the same in beef cows). The occurrence of short oestrous cycles is incompatible with the establishment of pregnancy. In water buffaloes the occurrence of short oestrous cycles following weaning has to be considered and breeding of animals subsequenty adjusted. (author)

  8. Towards a Predictive Analytics-Based Intelligent Malaria Outbreak Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babagana Modu


    Full Text Available Malaria, as one of the most serious infectious diseases causing public health problems in the world, affects about two-thirds of the world population, with estimated resultant deaths close to a million annually. The effects of this disease are much more profound in third world countries, which have very limited medical resources. When an intense outbreak occurs, most of these countries cannot cope with the high number of patients due to the lack of medicine, equipment and hospital facilities. The prevention or reduction of the risk factor of this disease is very challenging, especially in third world countries, due to poverty and economic insatiability. Technology can offer alternative solutions by providing early detection mechanisms that help to control the spread of the disease and allow the management of treatment facilities in advance to ensure a more timely health service, which can save thousands of lives. In this study, we have deployed an intelligent malaria outbreak early warning system, which is a mobile application that predicts malaria outbreak based on climatic factors using machine learning algorithms. The system will help hospitals, healthcare providers, and health organizations take precautions in time and utilize their resources in case of emergency. To our best knowledge, the system developed in this paper is the first publicly available application. Since confounding effects of climatic factors have a greater influence on the incidence of malaria, we have also conducted extensive research on exploring a new ecosystem model for the assessment of hidden ecological factors and identified three confounding factors that significantly influence the malaria incidence. Additionally, we deploy a smart healthcare application; this paper also makes a significant contribution by identifying hidden ecological factors of malaria.

  9. Developing the early warning system for identification of students at risk of dropping out using a collaborative action research process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovanović Olja 0000-0001-8860-6717


    Full Text Available The paper presents findings of collaborative action research aimed at exploring and describing the process of the development of the early warning system for identification of students at risk of dropping (EWS. The study has been conducted in collaboration between practitioners from five vocational agriculture and food science schools and research team with expertise in the field of educational psychology. Study employed one cycle of collaborative action research including planning, acting, observing, reflecting and revising phase. During the planning and action phase, Instrument for identification of students at risk of dropping out has been developed and implemented on the sample of 485 first grade students. The collected data has been used to highlight the students who are beginning to exhibit warning signs that could become obstacles to graduation, as well as to craft meaningful prevention and intervention measures. Observations regarding the implementation of proposed methodology and reflections on collected data and ongoing processes have been systematically recorded through regular monthly meetings between researchers and practitioners. Analysis of 73 documents, collected during observation and reflection phase, resulted in 18 categories, grouped into two broad themes: pitfalls and strengths of EWS. Based on the findings, the methodology for identification of students at risk was revised to fit the needs and strengths of the specific school. The study offers valuable lessons regarding development of EWS through researchers-practitioners collaboration.

  10. [The warning model and influence of climatic changes on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha city]. (United States)

    Xiao, Hong; Tian, Huai-yu; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhao, Jian; Zhu, Pei-juan; Liu, Ru-chun; Chen, Tian-mu; Dai, Xiang-yu; Lin, Xiao-ling


    To realize the influence of climatic changes on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), and to explore the adoption of climatic factors in warning HFRS. A total of 2171 cases of HFRS and the synchronous climatic data in Changsha from 2000 to 2009 were collected to a climate-based forecasting model for HFRS transmission. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was employed to explore the variation trend of the annual incidence of HFRS. Cross-correlations analysis was then adopted to assess the time-lag period between the climatic factors, including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and Multivariate Elño-Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) and the monthly HFRS cases. Finally the time-series Poisson regression model was constructed to analyze the influence of different climatic factors on the HFRS transmission. The annual incidence of HFRS in Changsha between 2000 - 2009 was 13.09/100 000 (755 cases), 9.92/100 000 (578 cases), 5.02/100 000 (294 cases), 2.55/100 000 (150 cases), 1.13/100 000 (67 cases), 1.16/100 000 (70 cases), 0.95/100 000 (58 cases), 1.40/100 000 (87 cases), 0.75/100 000 (47 cases) and 1.02/100 000 (65 cases), respectively. The incidence showed a decline during these years (Z = -5.78, P Climate factors significantly influence the incidence of HFRS. If the influence of variable-autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend were controlled, the accuracy of forecasting by the time-series Poisson regression model in Changsha would be comparatively high, and we could forecast the incidence of HFRS in advance.

  11. Medication incidents reported to an online incident reporting system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Alrwisan, Adel


    AIMS: Approximately 20% of deaths from adverse events are related to medication incidents, costing the NHS an additional £500 million annually. Less than 5% of adverse events are reported. This study aims to assess the reporting rate of medication incidents in NHS facilities in the north east of Scotland, and to describe the types and outcomes of reported incidents among different services. Furthermore, we wished to quantify the proportion of reported incidents according to the reporters\\' profession. METHODS: A retrospective description was made of medication incidents reported to an online reporting system (DATIX) over a 46-month-period (July 2005 to April 2009). Reports originated from acute and community hospitals, mental health, and primary care facilities. RESULTS: Over the study period there were 2,666 incidents reported with a mean monthly reporting rate of 78.2\\/month (SD±16.9). 6.1% of all incidents resulted in harm, with insulin being the most commonly implicated medication. Nearly three-quarters (74.2%, n=1,978) of total incidents originated from acute hospitals. Administration incidents were implicated in the majority of the reported medication incidents (59%), followed by prescribing (10.8%) and dispensing (9.9%), while the nondescript "other medication incidents" accounted for 20.3% of total incidents. The majority of reports were made by nursing and midwifery staff (80%), with medical and dental professionals reporting the lowest number of incidents (n=56, 2%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of medication incidents in this study were reported by nursing and midwifery staff, and were due to administration incidents. There is a clear need to elucidate the reasons for the limited contribution of the medical and dental professionals to reporting medication incidents.

  12. Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation (United States)

    Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.


    This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

  13. Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights. (United States)

    Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick


    Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  14. Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town (United States)

    Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna


    Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

  15. Hybrid Intelligent Warning System for Boiler tube Leak Trips

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Deshvin


    Full Text Available Repeated boiler tube leak trips in coal fired power plants can increase operating cost significantly. An early detection and diagnosis of boiler trips is essential for continuous safe operations in the plant. In this study two artificial intelligent monitoring systems specialized in boiler tube leak trips have been proposed. The first intelligent warning system (IWS-1 represents the use of pure artificial neural network system whereas the second intelligent warning system (IWS-2 represents merging of genetic algorithms and artificial neural networks as a hybrid intelligent system. The Extreme Learning Machine (ELM methodology was also adopted in IWS-1 and compared with traditional training algorithms. Genetic algorithm (GA was adopted in IWS-2 to optimize the ANN topology and the boiler parameters. An integrated data preparation framework was established for 3 real cases of boiler tube leak trip based on a thermal power plant in Malaysia. Both the IWSs were developed using MATLAB coding for training and validation. The hybrid IWS-2 performed better than IWS-1.The developed system was validated to be able to predict trips before the plant monitoring system. The proposed artificial intelligent system could be adopted as a reliable monitoring system of the thermal power plant boilers.

  16. An Offshore Geophysical Network in the Pacific Northwest for Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard Research (United States)

    Wilcock, W. S. D.; Schmidt, D. A.; Vidale, J. E.; Harrington, M.; Bodin, P.; Cram, G.; Delaney, J. R.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Kelley, D. S.; LeVeque, R. J.; Manalang, D.; McGuire, C.; Roland, E. C.; Tilley, J.; Vogl, C. J.; Stoermer, M.


    The Cascadia subduction zone hosts catastrophic earthquakes every few hundred years. On land, there are extensive geophysical networks available to monitor the subduction zone, but since the locked portion of the plate boundary lies mostly offshore, these networks are ideally complemented by seafloor observations. Such considerations helped motivate the development of scientific cabled observatories that cross the subduction zone at two sites off Vancouver Island and one off central Oregon, but these have a limited spatial footprint along the strike of the subduction zone. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network is leading a collaborative effort to implement an earthquake early warning system in the Washington and Oregon using data streams from land networks as well as the few existing offshore instruments. For subduction zone earthquakes that initiate offshore, this system will provide a warning. However, the availability of real time offshore instrumentation along the entire subduction zone would improve its reliability and accuracy, add up to 15 s to the warning time, and ensure an early warning for coastal communities near the epicenter. Furthermore, real-time networks of seafloor pressure sensors above the subduction zone would enable monitoring and contribute to accurate predictions of the incoming tsunami. There is also strong scientific motivation for offshore monitoring. We lack a complete knowledge of the plate convergence rate and direction. Measurements of steady deformation and observations of transient processes such as fluid pulsing, microseismic cycles, tremor and slow-slip are necessary for assessing the dimensions of the locked zone and its along-strike segmentation. Long-term monitoring will also provide baseline observations that can be used to detect and evaluate changes in the subduction environment. There are significant engineering challenges to be solved to ensure the system is sufficiently reliable and maintainable. It must provide

  17. Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience. (United States)

    Schumann, Ronald L; Ash, Kevin D; Bowser, Gregg C


    Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information-seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information-seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (United States)

    Eveslage, Ingmar; Fischer, Joachim; Kühnlenz, Frank; Lichtblau, Björn; Milkereit, Claus; Picozzi, Matteo


    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures (as we could proof during the L'Aquila earthquake) or technical systems and most recently for seismic microzonation. Nevertheless the main purpose SOSEWIN was initially invented for is the earthquake early warning and rapid response, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected cooperatively in a two-level hierarchical alarming protocol. Experiences and experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. The limited size of this installation with currently 20 nodes allows not answering certain questions regarding the useful or possible size of a SOSEWIN installation

  19. Nonsmokers' responses to new warning labels on smokeless tobacco and electronic cigarettes: an experimental study. (United States)

    Popova, Lucy; Ling, Pamela M


    Graphic warning labels are a tobacco control best practice that is mandated in the US for cigarettes under the 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act. However, smokeless tobacco products are not required to carry graphic warning labels, and as of September 2014, electronic cigarettes in the US carry no warning labels and are aggressively marketed, including with "reduced harm" or "FDA Approved" messages. In this online experiment, 483 US adult non-users of tobacco were randomized to view print advertisements for moist snuff, snus, and e-cigarettes with either warning labels (current warning label, graphic warning label) or "endorsements" (a "lower risk" label proposed by a tobacco company, an "FDA Approved" label) or control (tobacco advertisement with no label, advertisement for a non-tobacco consumer products). Main outcome measures included changes in perceived harm, positive attitudes towards, openness to using, and interest in a free sample of moist snuff, snus, and e-cigarettes. The graphic warning label increased perceived harm of moist snuff and e-cigarettes. "Lower risk" and "FDA Approved" labels decreased perceived harm of moist snuff and snus respectively. Current warning label and graphic warning label significantly lowered positive attitudes towards e-cigarettes. In this sample of non-users of tobacco, 15% were interested in a free sample of alternative tobacco products (predominantly e-cigarettes). Proportion of participants interested in a free sample did not differ significantly across the conditions, but those interested in a free sample had significantly lower perceptions of harm of corresponding tobacco products. Regulatory agencies should not allow "lower risk" warning labels, which have similar effects to the "FDA Approved" label, which is prohibited, and should consider implementing graphic warning labels for smokeless tobacco products and e-cigarettes.

  20. Flood early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Slina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila


    At the close of the twentieth century, natural hazards and disasters are one of the most common forms of disasters around the world. Natural disasters cause in significant loss of life and serious economic, environmental and social impacts that greatly retard the development process. Careful hazard assessment and planning, and a range of social, economic and political measures, can significantly contain these threats. Risk is defined as the potential for loss or damage as the result of a particular action or decision and Risk Management is a process consisting of well-defined steps which, when taken in sequence, support better decision making by contributing to a greater insight into risks and their impacts. Most commonly, there are three components in a natural disaster plan: monitoring and early warning; risk assessment; and mitigation and response. Given the improved tools and technologies available today, it is possible to provide disaster information and minimize the potential damage of disasters. In the following parts of the report, the national early warning systems for flood would be discussed, as one of the important component of natural disaster risk management. In 1. R. of Iran, also, different types of natural disasters occur, such as drought, flood, earthquake, sea-level rise, dust storm, hail, freezing and etc, but Flood hazard and disaster is one of the most frequent and damaging types of natural disasters. They have been the most common type of geophysical disaster in the latter half of the twentieth century in Iran, generating an estimated more than 20 percent of all disasters from 1950 to 2003. One of the hazardous floods of Iran occurred in Golestan and north of Khorasan provinces, located in north-east of the country, on August 2001 and 2002. In this regard, according to the responsibility of I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) on the flood forecasting, the early warning issue of the mentioned flood, issued within 48 hour's in

  1. [Reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening psychological, behavioral and developmental problems of children]. (United States)

    Huang, X N; Zhang, Y; Feng, W W; Wang, H S; Cao, B; Zhang, B; Yang, Y F; Wang, H M; Zheng, Y; Jin, X M; Jia, M X; Zou, X B; Zhao, C X; Robert, J; Jing, Jin


    Objective: To evaluate the reliability and validity of warning signs checklist developed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHFPC), so as to determine the screening effectiveness of warning signs on developmental problems of early childhood. Method: Stratified random sampling method was used to assess the reliability and validity of checklist of warning sign and 2 110 children 0 to 6 years of age(1 513 low-risk subjects and 597 high-risk subjects) were recruited from 11 provinces of China. The reliability evaluation for the warning signs included the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability. With the use of Age and Stage Questionnaire (ASQ) and Gesell Development Diagnosis Scale (GESELL) as the criterion scales, criterion validity was assessed by determining the correlation and consistency between the screening results of warning signs and the criterion scales. Result: In terms of the warning signs, the screening positive rates at different ages ranged from 10.8%(21/141) to 26.2%(51/137). The median (interquartile) testing time for each subject was 1(0.6) minute. Both the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability of warning signs reached 0.7 or above, indicating that the stability was good. In terms of validity assessment, there was remarkable consistency between ASQ and warning signs, with the Kappa value of 0.63. With the use of GESELL as criterion, it was determined that the sensitivity of warning signs in children with suspected developmental delay was 82.2%, and the specificity was 77.7%. The overall Youden index was 0.6. Conclusion: The reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening early childhood developmental problems have met the basic requirements of psychological screening scales, with the characteristics of short testing time and easy operation. Thus, this warning signs checklist can be used for screening psychological and behavioral problems of early childhood

  2. Challenges of information security incident learning: An industrial case study in a Chinese healthcare organization. (United States)

    He, Ying; Johnson, Chris


    Security incidents can have negative impacts on healthcare organizations, and the security of medical records has become a primary concern of the public. However, previous studies showed that organizations had not effectively learned lessons from security incidents. Incident learning as an essential activity in the "follow-up" phase of security incident response lifecycle has long been addressed but not given enough attention. This paper conducted a case study in a healthcare organization in China to explore their current obstacles in the practice of incident learning. We interviewed both IT professionals and healthcare professionals. The results showed that the organization did not have a structured way to gather and redistribute incident knowledge. Incident response was ineffective in cycling incident knowledge back to inform security management. Incident reporting to multiple stakeholders faced a great challenge. In response to this case study, we suggest the security assurance modeling framework to address those obstacles.

  3. Incident users of antipsychotics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baandrup, Lone; Kruse, Marie


    PURPOSE: In Denmark, as well as in many other countries, consumption of antipsychotics is on the rise, partly due to increasing off-label use. The aim of this study was to analyze and quantify the extent of off-label use and polypharmacy in incident users of antipsychotic medication, and to examine...... initial antipsychotic prescribing patterns and associated use of mental health care services. METHOD: Population-based cohort study linking the following Danish national registers: the Central Psychiatric Research Register, the Register of Medicinal Product Statistics, and Statistics Denmark. RESULTS...

  4. Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate. (United States)

    Hess, Jeremy J; Ebi, Kristie L


    Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of morbidity and mortality, with heat exposure becoming more widespread, frequent, and intense as climates change. The use of heat early warning and response systems (HEWSs) that integrate weather forecasts with risk assessment, communication, and reduction activities is increasingly widespread. HEWSs are frequently touted as an adaptation to climate change, but little attention has been paid to the question of how best to ensure effectiveness of HEWSs as climates change further. In this paper, we discuss findings showing that HEWSs satisfy the tenets of an intervention that facilitates adaptation, but climate change poses challenges infrequently addressed in heat action plans, particularly changes in the onset, duration, and intensity of dangerously warm temperatures, and changes over time in the relationships between temperature and health outcomes. Iterative management should be central to a HEWS, and iteration cycles should be of 5 years or less. Climate change adaptation and implementation science research frameworks can be used to identify HEWS modifications to improve their effectiveness as temperature continues to rise, incorporating scientific insights and new understanding of effective interventions. We conclude that, at a minimum, iterative management activities should involve planned reassessment at least every 5 years of hazard distribution, population-level vulnerability, and HEWS effectiveness. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  5. Miniaturized Water Flow and Level Monitoring System for Flood Disaster Early Warning (United States)

    Ifedapo Abdullahi, Salami; Hadi Habaebi, Mohamed; Surya Gunawan, Teddy; Rafiqul Islam, MD


    This study presents the performance of a prototype miniaturised water flow and water level monitoring sensor designed towards supporting flood disaster early warning systems. The design involved selection of sensors, coding to control the system mechanism, and automatic data logging and storage. During the design phase, the apparatus was constructed where all the components were assembled using locally sourced items. Subsequently, under controlled laboratory environment, the system was tested by running water through the inlet during which the flow rate and rising water levels are automatically recorded and stored in a database via Microsoft Excel using Coolterm software. The system is simulated such that the water level readings measured in centimeters is output in meters using a multiplicative of 10. A total number of 80 readings were analyzed to evaluate the performance of the system. The result shows that the system is sensitive to water level rise and yielded accurate measurement of water level. But, the flow rate fluctuates due to the manual water supply that produced inconsistent flow. It was also observed that the flow sensor has a duty cycle of 50% of operating time under normal condition which implies that the performance of the flow sensor is optimal.

  6. Improving freight crash incident management. (United States)


    The objective of this study was to determine the most effective way to mitigate the effect of freight : crash incidents on Louisiana freeways. Candidate incident management strategies were reviewed from : practice in other states and from those publi...

  7. Common Causes of Pesticide Incidents (United States)

    There are many types of pesticide incidents. EPA staff analyze pesticide incident reports involving people (including children and farm workers), pets, domestic animals, wildlife including bees and other pollinators, and the environment.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available While experts in economics place transition to green economy on two directions - reducing ecological footprint and increasing human welfare - climate change specialists warn that effects of global warming will have a much greater impact in the future. It is natural to join scientific contributions in these two areas because both perspectives recognize the ravages made by industrialization, which triggered a serie of abrupt climate changes. For example, the average temperature in Europe has increased about 1oC. Based on these evidences, this article will show the usefulness of introducing a concept of full cycle to prevent climate change in the new paradigm that seeks to solve problems related to the fundamentals of sustainable development through transition to green economy. Using this method, this approach intends to be a new theoretical contribution which can act as support to efficiency of new clean technologies.

  9. Increasing incidence of pyogenic spondylodiscitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kehrer, Michala; Pedersen, Court; Jensen, Thøger G


    Smaller studies indicate that the incidence of pyogenic spondylodiscitis is increasing, possible related to a growing elderly population. Data supporting this is sparse, and we therefore studied patient characteristics and changes in spondylodiscitis incidence 1995-2008.......Smaller studies indicate that the incidence of pyogenic spondylodiscitis is increasing, possible related to a growing elderly population. Data supporting this is sparse, and we therefore studied patient characteristics and changes in spondylodiscitis incidence 1995-2008....

  10. Incident Management: Process into Practice (United States)

    Isaac, Gayle; Moore, Brian


    Tornados, shootings, fires--these are emergencies that require fast action by school district personnel, but they are not the only incidents that require risk management. The authors have introduced the National Incident Management System (NIMS) and the Incident Command System (ICS) and assured that these systems can help educators plan for and…

  11. The Incidence and Intensity of Formal Lifelong Learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Marianne; Skipper, Lars

    We exploit a rich high quality register-based employer-employee panel data set to investigate the incidence and intensity of government co-sponsored training for the Danish adult population. We focus specifically on training over the working life cycle and find that the levels of participation va...

  12. A Microseismic Method for Dynamic Warning of Rockburst Development Processes in Tunnels (United States)

    Feng, Guang-Liang; Feng, Xia-Ting; Chen, Bing-rui; Xiao, Ya-Xun; Yu, Yang


    Early warning of rockbursts remains a worldwide challenge in rock engineering. In this work, a microseismicity-based method of rockburst warning in tunnels is proposed to warn of and reduce the risk of rockburst. The method uses real-time microseismic data and an established rockburst warning formula to provide dynamic warning of rockburst risk during excavation of a tunnel. The establishment of the rockburst warning formula involves several key parts. These include a rockburst database, selection of typical rockburst cases, functional relationships between microseismicity and rockbursts, optimal weighting coefficients, and dynamic updating. By using the proposed method, the probability of strain and strain-structure slip rockbursts of different intensity (extremely intense, intense, moderate, slight, and none) can be warned of in real time. The method has been successfully applied to rockburst warning in deeply buried tunnels at the Jinping II hydropower project (about 11.6 km in total for D & B tunnels). This success illustrates the applicability of the proposed method. In addition, it is found that during the rockburst development process, the microseismic eigenvalues for strainbursts are bigger than in strain-structure slip rockbursts of the same intensity.

  13. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan (United States)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi


    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  14. The Influence of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Health Warning Labels on Parents' Choices. (United States)

    Roberto, Christina A; Wong, Diandra; Musicus, Aviva; Hammond, David


    US states have introduced bills requiring sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) to display health warning labels. This study examined how such labels may influence parents and which labels are most impactful. In this study, 2381 demographically and educationally diverse parents participated in an online survey. Parents were randomly assigned to 1 of 6 conditions: (1) no warning label (control); (2) calorie label; or (3-6) 1 of 4 text versions of a warning label (eg, Safety Warning: Drinking beverages with added sugar[s] contributes to obesity, diabetes, and tooth decay). Parents chose a beverage for their child in a vending machine choice task, rated perceptions of different beverages, and indicated interest in receiving beverage coupons. Regression analyses controlling for frequency of beverage purchases were used to compare the no warning label group, calorie label group, and all warning label groups combined. Significantly fewer parents chose an SSB for their child in the warning label condition (40%) versus the no label (60%) and calorie label conditions (53%). Parents in the warning label condition also chose significantly fewer SSB coupons, believed that SSBs were less healthy for their child, and were less likely to intend to purchase SSBs. All P values parents' understanding of health harms associated with overconsumption of such beverages and may reduce parents' purchase of SSBs for their children. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  15. Methods for the evaluation of alternative disaster warning systems. Executive summary (United States)

    Agnew, C. E.; Anderson, R. J., Jr.; Lanen, W. N.


    Methods for estimating the economic costs and benefits of the transmission-reception and reception-action segments of a disaster warning system (DWS) are described. Methods were identified for the evaluation of the transmission and reception portions of alternative disaster warning systems. Example analyses using the methods identified were performed.

  16. Early warning system for Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Western United States. (United States)

    Gary E. Daterman; John M. Wenz; Katharine A. Sheehan


    The Early Warning System is a pheromone-based trapping system used to detect outbreaks of Douglas-fir tussock moth (DFTM, Orgyia pseudotsugata) in the western United States. Millions of acres are susceptible to DFTM defoliation, but Early Warning System monitoring focuses attention only on the relatively limited areas where outbreaks may be...

  17. Key Parameters Estimation and Adaptive Warning Strategy for Rear-End Collision of Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Song


    Full Text Available The rear-end collision warning system requires reliable warning decision mechanism to adapt the actual driving situation. To overcome the shortcomings of existing warning methods, an adaptive strategy is proposed to address the practical aspects of the collision warning problem. The proposed strategy is based on the parameter-adaptive and variable-threshold approaches. First, several key parameter estimation algorithms are developed to provide more accurate and reliable information for subsequent warning method. They include a two-stage algorithm which contains a Kalman filter and a Luenberger observer for relative acceleration estimation, a Bayesian theory-based algorithm of estimating the road friction coefficient, and an artificial neural network for estimating the driver’s reaction time. Further, the variable-threshold warning method is designed to achieve the global warning decision. In the method, the safety distance is employed to judge the dangerous state. The calculation method of the safety distance in this paper can be adaptively adjusted according to the different driving conditions of the leading vehicle. Due to the real-time estimation of the key parameters and the adaptive calculation of the warning threshold, the strategy can adapt to various road and driving conditions. Finally, the proposed strategy is evaluated through simulation and field tests. The experimental results validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  18. 16 CFR 1508.9 - Identifying marks, warning statement, and compliance declaration. (United States)


    ..., warning statement, and compliance declaration. (a) All cribs and retail cartons thereof shall be suitably... dimensions shall bear identical markings. (c) The following warning shall appear on the retail carton and on... article is subjected to reasonably foreseeable damage or abuse. (e) The retail carton of a crib shall...

  19. Effectiveness of pictorial health warning on cigarette packages: A cross-sectional study in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman


    Full Text Available Specific health warning placed on the tobacco product packages is considered as an effective and low-cost method for increasing the knowledge and awareness among the community. Thus, a study was conducted to assess the perception of pictorial health warnings (PHWs against smoking among the adult rural population of Sarawak.

  20. ʿHello! I'm behind you’: Warnings at trouble moments in forklift driving

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nevile, Maurice Richard; Wagner, Johannes

    , movement, or activity, to another driver who then responds to the warning in appropriate ways. We examine precisely when such warnings occur in the order and course of progressing routine task performance, and especially how forms of talk (e.g. ‘hello!’, ‘I’m passing behind you’) relate to details...

  1. Awareness of risk factors and warning signs of stroke in a Nigeria university. (United States)

    Obembe, Adebimpe O; Olaogun, Matthew O; Bamikole, Adesola A; Komolafe, Morenikeji A; Odetunde, Marufat O


    Rapid access to medical services which is an important predictor of treatment and rehabilitation outcome requires that there is an understanding of stroke risk factors and early warning signs. This study assessed awareness of stroke risk factors and warning signs among students and staff of Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria. This was a cross sectional survey involving 994 (500 students and 494 staff) respondents. Information on the awareness of stroke risk factors and warning signs was collected with the aid of a structured questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. Weakness (66.2%) was the most commonly identified warning sign of stroke with more staff (69.8%) identifying correctly than students (62.6%). Hypertension (83.4%) was the most commonly identified stroke risk factor, with more staff (91.7%) identifying correctly than students (83.2%). There were significant differences (p stress and obesity), and warning signs (dizziness, numbness, weakness, headache and vision problems) between students and staff. Predictors for adequate awareness of both stroke risk factors and warning signs were younger age, smoking history and higher educational level. Majority of the respondents recognized individual important stroke risk factors and warning signs, but few recognized multiple stroke risk factors and warning signs. Awareness programs on stroke should be organized, even in communities with educated people to increase public awareness on the prevention of stroke and on the reduction of morbidity in the survivors. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. 21 CFR 101.17 - Food labeling warning, notice, and safe handling statements. (United States)


    ... paragraph if the protein products are represented as part of a nutritionally balanced diet plan providing... use in reducing weight shall bear the following warning: WARNING: Very low calorie protein diets... Diets Without Medical Supervision. Not for use by infants, children, or pregnant or nursing women. (2...

  3. 30 CFR 75.1101-10 - Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives. (United States)


    ... Protection § 75.1101-10 Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives. Each water sprinkler system shall be equipped with a device designed to stop the belt drive in the event of a rise in... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices...

  4. Not so Scary: Using and Defusing Content Warnings in the Classroom (United States)

    Fenner, Sofia


    Content warnings--notices to students that class material may evoke their past traumas--have become entangled in (over)heated debates about the role of free speech on campus. Critics denounce content warnings as silencing tools intended to promote censorship, preclude discussion of difficult topics or punish professors who hold unpopular views.…

  5. FloodAlert: a simplified radar-based EWS for urban flood warning


    Llort Pavon, Xavier; Sánchez-Diezma Guijarro, Rafael; Rodríguez, Álvaro; Sancho, David; Berenguer Ferrer, Marc; Sempere Torres, Daniel


    In this work we present FloodAlert, a simplified flood Early Warning System [EWS] based on the use of radar observations and radar nowcasting to issue local flood warnings. It is a web-based platform and it is complemented with a flexible and powerful dissemination module.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Yulinsa


    Full Text Available Lahar flow in the region of Mount Merapi after an eruption of 2010 is still considered potentially to happen and threat the region along the river from the upstream. The development of warning criteria against the potential occurrence of lahar flow is a thing that should be done continuously to accommodate dynamics data availability (rainfall data and lahar flow occurrence data, although with limited data. This study aims to develop lahar warning system applying snake line as a rain phenomenon in Putih catchment area which will affect the occurrence of lahar flow and to evaluate the success rate of snake line for deciding the warning system. This study used the main reference from Guidelines for Development of Warning and Evacuation System against Sediment Disasters in Developing Countries released by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Infrastructure Development Institute – Japan (2004. This research was conducted through several stages, i.e. secondary data collection in the form of rainfall data, lahar flow occurrence data, making correlation graph between rainfall intensity and working rainfall, determination of critical line, warning line and evacuation line. The results show that standard rainfall for warning and evacuation alert in Putih River are 22 mm, and 49 mm, respectively. The accuracy of warning criteria and the evacuation criteria against snake line for warning line is 30%, evacuation line is 61% and the critical line is 83%. The behavior of snake line that indicates lahar flow occurrence in Putih River forming an angle of 40o up to 45o.

  7. 16 CFR 307.12 - Rotation, display, and dissemination of warning statements in smokeless tobacco advertising. (United States)


    ... actual examples of different types of advertising materials for various brands, prototypes of actual... warning statements in smokeless tobacco advertising. 307.12 Section 307.12 Commercial Practices FEDERAL... warning statements in smokeless tobacco advertising. (a) In the case of advertising for a smokeless...

  8. 78 FR 6056 - Smokeless Tobacco Product Warning Statements; Request for Comments and Scientific Evidence (United States)


    ... warnings that must appear on smokeless tobacco product packages and advertising. The Smokeless Tobacco Act (15 U.S.C. 4402(a)(1) and (b)(1)), requires that smokeless tobacco product packages and advertising... requirements for the placement, type, size, and color of warnings on packaging and advertisements, respectively...

  9. [Research of early-warning method for regional groundwater pollution based on risk management]. (United States)

    Bai, Li-Ping; Wang, Ye-Yao; Guo, Yong-Li; Zhou, You-Ya; Liu, Li; Yan, Zeng-Guang; Li, Fa-Sheng


    Groundwater is the main source of water supply in China, and China's overall situation of groundwater pollution is not optimistic at present. Groundwater pollution risk evaluation and early-warning are the effective measures to prevent groundwater pollution. At present, research of groundwater early-warning method at home and abroad is still at the exploratory stage, and the sophisticated technology has not been developed for reference. This paper briefly described the data and technological demand of the early-warning method in different scales, and the main factors influencing the early-warning results of groundwater pollution were classified as protection performance of geological medium, characteristics of pollution sources, groundwater dynamics and groundwater value. Then the main early-warning indexes of groundwater pollution were screened to establish the early-warning model of regional or watershed scale by the index overlay method. At last, the established early-warning model was used in Baotou plain, and the different early-warning grades were zoned by the model. The research results could provide scientific support for the local management department to protect the groundwater resources.

  10. 77 FR 41316 - Federal Bureau of Investigation Anti-Piracy Warning Seal Program (United States)


    ... the APW Seal in evoking the FBI's involvement in enforcement of anti-piracy laws. Two comments... Investigation Anti-Piracy Warning Seal Program AGENCY: Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Justice. ACTION... regulation regarding the FBI Anti-Piracy Warning Seal (APW Seal). The final rule provides a general...

  11. Design and evaluation of warning systems: application to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pe Benito-Claudio, C.


    This study starts by defining and explaining key concepts about warning, both as a process and a system. Thereafter, it presents a quantitative, probabilistic, and decision-oriented methodology for designing and evaluating a warning system. It illustrates the methodology for the case of rare, controllable, and potentially disastrous technological events, such as accidents in nuclear power plants. The methodology covers and links the three principal components of a warning system - signal (which is mainly technical), warning dissemination, and warning response (which are mainly social) - thereby allowing the relative evaluation of technological and social measures for reducing risks. Analytical principles and techniques of risk and decision analyses are applied. It defines a probabilistic performance measure to characterize each component of a warning system, and a value measure to assess the overall effectiveness of the system. An important aspect of this work is the integration, into one analytical model, of the results of engineering studies, such as probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants, and of empirical findings on human response to warning in sociological research. The models, calculations, and sensitivity analyses are done with influence diagrams that are both intuitive and mathematical. This work puts particular emphasis on the study of behavioral response of individuals to warning

  12. Forecasting the “Arab Spring” of 2011: Terrorist Incident Data from 2000-2010 Offered No Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Chasdi


    Full Text Available One of the single most predominant questions associated with the so-called “Arab Spring” is whether or not any social research indicators associated with terrorism data are available with predictive value for such profound structural political changes. The underlying aim of this “Research Note” is to take a first pass at the terrorism data and to compare certain terrorism data trends for four countries that experienced successful regime change in 2011, namely Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, to terrorism trends in nine countries where political strains and tensions did not result in full blown regime change. In this essay, those countries include Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, Algeria, Kuwait, UAE, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia. From the start, it should be clear that even though there was non-violent protest in many of these countries, this analysis places singular attention on what both Gurr and Ross and Miller call “oppositional” or “insurgent” terrorism where terrorist assaults are directed at state governments.

  13. Forecasting the “Arab Spring” of 2011: Terrorist Incident Data from 2000-2010 Offered No Early Warning


    Richard J. Chasdi


    One of the single most predominant questions associated with the so-called “Arab Spring” is whether or not any social research indicators associated with terrorism data are available with predictive value for such profound structural political changes. The underlying aim of this “Research Note” is to take a first pass at the terrorism data and to compare certain terrorism data trends for four countries that experienced successful regime change in 2011, namely Tunisia, ...

  14. Graphic Warning Labels Elicit Affective and Thoughtful Responses from Smokers: Results of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abigail T Evans

    Full Text Available Observational research suggests that placing graphic images on cigarette warning labels can reduce smoking rates, but field studies lack experimental control. Our primary objective was to determine the psychological processes set in motion by naturalistic exposure to graphic vs. text-only warnings in a randomized clinical trial involving exposure to modified cigarette packs over a 4-week period. Theories of graphic-warning impact were tested by examining affect toward smoking, credibility of warning information, risk perceptions, quit intentions, warning label memory, and smoking risk knowledge.Adults who smoked between 5 and 40 cigarettes daily (N = 293; mean age = 33.7, did not have a contra-indicated medical condition, and did not intend to quit were recruited from Philadelphia, PA and Columbus, OH. Smokers were randomly assigned to receive their own brand of cigarettes for four weeks in one of three warning conditions: text only, graphic images plus text, or graphic images with elaborated text.Data from 244 participants who completed the trial were analyzed in structural-equation models. The presence of graphic images (compared to text-only caused more negative affect toward smoking, a process that indirectly influenced risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk perception->quit intention. Negative affect from graphic images also enhanced warning credibility including through increased scrutiny of the warnings, a process that also indirectly affected risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk scrutiny->warning credibility->risk perception->quit intention. Unexpectedly, elaborated text reduced warning credibility. Finally, graphic warnings increased warning-information recall and indirectly increased smoking-risk knowledge at the end of the trial and one month later.In the first naturalistic clinical trial conducted, graphic warning labels are more effective than text-only warnings

  15. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning (United States)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve


    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  16. Towards an Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in the Caribbean (United States)

    Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Vanacore, E. A.


    The Caribbean region (CR) has a documented history of large damaging earthquakes and tsunamis that have affected coastal areas, including the events of Jamaica in 1692, Virgin Islands in 1867, Puerto Rico in 1918, the Dominican Republic in 1946 and Haiti in 2010. There is clear evidence that tsunamis have been triggered by large earthquakes that deformed the ocean floor around the Caribbean Plate boundary. The CR is monitored jointly by national/regional/local seismic, geodetic and sea level networks. All monitoring institutions are participating in the UNESCO ICG/Caribe EWS, the purpose of this initiative is to minimize loss of life and destruction of property, and to mitigate against catastrophic economic impacts via promoting local research, real time (RT) earthquake, geodetic and sea level data sharing and improving warning capabilities and enhancing education and outreach strategies. Currently more than, 100 broad-band seismic, 65 sea levels and 50 GPS high rate stations are available in real or near real-time. These real-time streams are used by Local/Regional or Worldwide detection and warning institutions to provide earthquake source parameters in a timely manner. Currently, any Caribbean event detected to have a magnitude greater than 4.5 is evaluated, and sea level is measured, by the TWC for tsumanigenic potential. The regional cooperation is motivated both by research interests as well as geodetic, seismic and tsunami hazard monitoring and warning. It will allow the imaging of the tectonic structure of the Caribbean region to a high resolution which will consequently permit further understanding of the seismic source properties for moderate and large events and the application of this knowledge to procedures of civil protection. To reach its goals, the virtual network has been designed following the highest technical standards: BB sensors, 24 bits A/D converters with 140 dB dynamic range, real-time telemetry. Here we will discuss the state of the PR

  17. Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation (United States)

    Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha


    Drought warning provides a potentially efficient approach to mitigation of drought impacts, and should be targeted at areas most vulnerable to being adversely impacted. Assessing drought vulnerability is, however, complex and needs to consider susceptibility to drought impact as well as the capacity to cope with drought. In this paper a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is proposed that considers four primary components that reflect the capacity of society to adapt to drought; the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the available infrastructure and technology. The DVI is established as a weighted combination of these four components, each a composite of selected indicators. Constituent indicators are calculated based on national and/or regional census data and statistics, and while the resulting DVI should not be considered an absolute measure of drought vulnerability it does provide for a prioritisation of areas that can be used to target drought warning efforts. Sensitivity analysis of weights applied show the established DVI to be robust. Through the DVI the development of drought forecasting and warning can be targeted at the most vulnerable areas. The proposed DVI is applied at both the continental scale in Africa to assess drought vulnerability of the different nations across Africa, and at the national level in Kenya, allowing for prioritisation of the counties within Kenya to drought vulnerability. Results show the relative vulnerability of countries and counties vulnerable to drought. At the continental scale, Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad are found to be the countries most vulnerable to drought. At the national level, the relative vulnerability of the counties across Kenya is found, with counties in the North-East of Kenya having the highest values of DVI. At the country level results were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database, showing a good

  18. Innovation and Business Cycles


    Festré, Agnès


    The main purpose of this chapter is to assess the originality of Schumpeter's theory of business cycles. The first section outlines the distinctive features of Schumpeter's approach to business cycles and economic dynamics. Section two looks at the mechanisms constituting the cycle in Schumpeter's two major contributions on this subject, the Theory of Economic Development (1911) and Business Cycles (1939).

  19. The fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    In this brochure the fuel cycle is presented. The following fuel cycle steps are described: (1) Front of the fuel cycle (Mining and milling; Treatment; Refining, conversion and enrichment; Fuel fabrication); (2) Use of fuel in nuclear reactors; (3) Back end of the fuel cycle (Interim storage of spent fuel; spent fuel reprocessing; Final disposal of spent fuel)

  20. NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria (United States)

    Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.


    West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

  1. Panel 2.2: surveillance, early warning alert, and response: communicable and vector-borne diseases. (United States)

    Roure, Collette; Khalakdina, Asheena; Ungchusak, Kumnuan; Yulizar, Media; Ravindran, P; Watson, John; Pinto, Augusto


    This is a summary of the presentations and discussion of Surveillance, Early Warning Alert and Response at the Conference, Health Aspects of the Tsunami Disaster in Asia, convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) in Phuket, Thailand, 04-06 May 2005. The topics discussed included issues related to the surveillance, early warning alert, and response to communicable and vector-borne diseases as pertaining to the responses to the damage created by the Tsunami. It is presented in the following major sections: (1) key questions; (2) needs assessment; (3) coordination; (4) gap filling; and (5) capacity building. The key questions section is presented in six sub-sections: (1) communicable diseases; (2) early warning; (3) laboratory capacity and referral networking; (4) coordination of disease surveillance, early warning, and response; (5) health infrastructure rebuilding; and (6) using existing national surveillance plans to enhance disease surveillance and early warning systems.

  2. [Application of Big Data Mining Technology in Monitoring and Early-warning of Schistosomiasis]. (United States)

    Yang, Kun; Li, Shi-zhu


    The prevalence of schistosomiasis will soon be controlled to a low level in China. It is therefore imperative to establish a more sensitive and effective early warning system for schistosomiasis, so as to consolidate the achievements of the disease control. By covering four topics including the importance of early warning system for schistosomiasis and its research direction, as well as recent development in big data mining and its application in monitoring and early-warning of schistosomiasis, this review discusses the feasibility of data mining technology for monitoring and early warning of the disease. It is hoped that this technology would increase the efficacy of studies on monitoring and early warning, and promote the elimination of schistosomiasis in China.

  3. Early warning for global change-induced critical degradation of Amazonia: science and a blue-print for implementation from the AMAZALERT project (United States)

    Kruijt, B.; von Randow, C.; Good, P.; Kay, G.; Elbers, J. A.; de Oliveira, G. S.; Meesters, A.; Nobre, C. A.


    The Amazon is under threat through the joint effects of unsustainable regional development and climate change. Many studies in the past ten years have indicated that these can lead to deforestation, regional disturbance of temperatures and the water cycle, as well as loss of carbon stocks and biodiversity. In turn, these changes can lead to loss and dying of forests, droughts, low river levels and floods. If and when such degradation would occur, an Early Warning System (EWS) that would detect the imminent change would help to minimise its impacts. The EU-FP7 funded AMAZALERT project has investigated the likelihood and pathways of critical transitions in the Amazon and designed a blue-print for an EWS. There is still much uncertainty on how robust the Amazon region is and how likely it is that it may collapse and 'die-back' within the foreseeable future. There is also uncertainty whether critical degradation would show any critical 'tipping point' behaviour, and whether such change would be associated with detectable early-warning signals, such as enhanced but slowing down variability in variables ahead of thresholds that are associated with the change. In the AMAZALERT project we performed a set of coherent climate, vegetation, hydrological, socio-economic and policy model evaluations to detect the sensitivities and potential critical change behaviour of the Amazon's ecosystem services to climate and land-use change. We improved their parameterisation through field data analysis as well as through stakeholder interactions. A framework was designed to enable early warning and to assess implementation issues. A hierarchy of warning levels can be distinguished ranging from policy failure though fatal regional forcing conditions, to actual impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services. For each level, different sets of indicators can be identified and different observational and analysis tools are required. Model simulations of both low and high complexity show

  4. Towards developing drought impact functions to advance drought monitoring and early warning (United States)

    Bachmair, Sophie; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannaford, Jamie; Svoboda, Mark


    In natural hazard analysis, damage functions (also referred to as vulnerability or susceptibility functions) relate hazard intensity to the negative effects of the hazard event, often expressed as damage ratio or monetary loss. While damage functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is little knowledge on how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts. One reason for this is the multifaceted nature of drought affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity (for example, recognizing meteorological - agricultural - hydrological - socioeconomic drought) leading to a wide range of drought impacts. Moreover, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetarize (e.g. impaired navigability of streams, bans on domestic water use, increased mortality of aquatic species). Knowledge on the relationship between drought intensity and drought impacts, i.e. negative environmental, economic or social effects experienced under drought conditions, however, is vital to identify critical thresholds for drought impact occurrence. Such information may help to improve drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW), one goal of the international DrIVER project (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research). The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of designing "drought impact functions" for case study areas in Europe (Germany and UK) and the United States to derive thresholds meaningful for drought impact occurrence; to account for the multidimensionality of drought impacts, we use the broader term "drought impact function" over "damage function". First steps towards developing empirical drought impact functions are (1) to identify meaningful indicators characterizing the hazard intensity (e.g. indicators expressing a precipitation or streamflow deficit), (2) to identify suitable variables representing impacts

  5. Impact of the New Malaysian Cigarette Pack Warnings on Smokers’ Awareness of Health Risks and Interest in Quitting Smoking (United States)

    Fathelrahman, Ahmed I.; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Cummings, K. Michael; Borland, Ron; Samin, Ahmad Shalihin Bin Mohd


    The objective of this research was to compare the response of adult smokers in Malaysia to newly proposed pictorial cigarette warnings against the current text-only warnings. The study population included 140 adult male smokers who were enrolled in a randomized trial to view either the new pictorial warnings (intervention) or the old text-only warnings (control). Participants completed pre-exposure and post-exposure questionnaires that assessed their awareness of the health risks of smoking, response to the package warnings, and interest in quitting smoking. Exposure to the pictorial warnings resulted in increased awareness of the risks of smoking, stronger behavioral response to the warnings and increased interest in quitting smoking. The new warnings in Malaysia will increase smokers’ knowledge of the adverse health effects of smoking and have a positive effect on interest in quitting. PMID:21139879

  6. Impact of the New Malaysian Cigarette Pack Warnings on Smokers’ Awareness of Health Risks and Interest in Quitting Smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ron Borland


    Full Text Available The objective of this research was to compare the response of adult smokers in Malaysia to newly proposed pictorial cigarette warnings against the current text-only warnings. The study population included 140 adult male smokers who were enrolled in a randomized trial to view either the new pictorial warnings (intervention or the old text-only warnings (control. Participants completed pre-exposure and post-exposure questionnaires that assessed their awareness of the health risks of smoking, response to the package warnings, and interest in quitting smoking. Exposure to the pictorial warnings resulted in increased awareness of the risks of smoking, stronger behavioral response to the warnings and increased interest in quitting smoking. The new warnings in Malaysia will increase smokers’ knowledge of the adverse health effects of smoking and have a positive effect on interest in quitting.

  7. Impact of the new Malaysian cigarette pack warnings on smokers' awareness of health risks and interest in quitting smoking. (United States)

    Fathelrahman, Ahmed I; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Cummings, K Michael; Borland, Ron; Bin Mohd Samin, Ahmad Shalihin


    The objective of this research was to compare the response of adult smokers in Malaysia to newly proposed pictorial cigarette warnings against the current text-only warnings. The study population included 140 adult male smokers who were enrolled in a randomized trial to view either the new pictorial warnings (intervention) or the old text-only warnings (control). Participants completed pre-exposure and post-exposure questionnaires that assessed their awareness of the health risks of smoking, response to the package warnings, and interest in quitting smoking. Exposure to the pictorial warnings resulted in increased awareness of the risks of smoking, stronger behavioral response to the warnings and increased interest in quitting smoking. The new warnings in Malaysia will increase smokers' knowledge of the adverse health effects of smoking and have a positive effect on interest in quitting.

  8. The effectiveness of current French health warnings displayed on alcohol advertisements and alcoholic beverages. (United States)

    Dossou, Gloria; Gallopel-Morvan, Karine; Diouf, Jacques-François


    Many countries use health warnings in an attempt to regulate alcohol consumption. However, there is a lack of conclusive evidence in the research on alcohol warnings to support decision-making on effective health policies. This study explores the effectiveness of two mandatory warnings introduced in France in 1991 and 2007: the first (Alcohol abuse is harmful) is displayed on alcohol advertisements; the second (a pictogram) on bottles. Given that advertising content regulations have been implemented in some countries to reduce the attractiveness of alcohol marketing (e.g. the Evin law in France), this research also aims to explore whether such regulations can improve the effectiveness of warnings. In-depth interviews were conducted with 26 French people aged 15-29 years. The effectiveness of health warnings was assessed in terms of recall, noticeability, credibility, comprehension, responsiveness, and ability to encourage moderate drinking and abstinence during pregnancy. Participants were shown alcohol advertisements and bottles that either followed or challenged content regulations. The data were analyzed using double manual coding and NVivo software. While both warnings suffered from a lack of visibility and noticeability due to their size, location, and outdatedness and because of competition from marketing design elements, the warning on the advertisement that followed content regulations was most visible. Both warnings were considered to be informationally vague, lacking in credibility and ineffective in terms of making participants feel concerned and influencing consumption habits. Current French warnings are ineffective and require modification. Improvements are suggested regarding the design and content of warnings to help increase their effectiveness. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  9. Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study. (United States)

    Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L


    To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Analysis and design of the ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging (United States)

    Wang, Wen-cong; Hu, Hui-jun; Jin, Dong-dong; Chu, Xin-bo; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Liu, Jin-sheng; Xiao, Ting; Shao, Si-pei


    Ultraviolet warning technology is one of the important methods for missile warning. It provides a very effective way to detect the target for missile approaching alarm. With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. Compared to infrared warning, the ultraviolet warning has high efficiency and low false alarm rate. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge of missile warning technology. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. For the ultraviolet warning system, the optimal working waveband is 250 nm 280 nm (Solar Blind UV) due to the strong absorption of ozone layer. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure includes a primary optical system, an ultraviolet reflector array, an ultraviolet imaging system and an ultraviolet interference imaging system. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm.A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

  11. Efficient and effective learning for safety from incidents. (United States)

    Akselsson, Roland; Jacobsson, Anders; Bötjesson, Marcus; Ek, Åsa; Enander, Ann


    Learning from incidents is important for improving safety. Many companies spend a great deal of time and money on such learning procedures. The objectives of this paper are to present some early results from a project aimed at revealing weaknesses in the procedures for learning from incidents and to discuss improvements in these procedures, especially in chemical process industries. The empirical base comes from a project assessing organizational learning and the effectiveness of the different steps of the learning cycle for safety and studying relations between safety-specific transformational leadership, safety climate, trust, safety-related behavior and learning from incidents. The results point at common weaknesses in the organizational learning, both in the horizontal learning (geographical spread) and in vertical learning (double-loop learning). Furthermore, the effectiveness in the different steps of the learning cycle is low due to insufficient information in incident reports, very shallow analyses of reports, decisions that focus at solving the problem only at the place where the incident took place, late implementations and weak solutions. Strong correlations with learning from incidents were found for all safety climate variables as well as for safety-related behaviors and trust. The relationships were very strong for trust, safety knowledge, safety participation and safety compliance.

  12. Grazing incidence beam expander

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akkapeddi, P.R.; Glenn, P.; Fuschetto, A.; Appert, Q.; Viswanathan, V.K.


    A Grazing Incidence Beam Expander (GIBE) telescope is being designed and fabricated to be used as an equivalent end mirror in a long laser resonator cavity. The design requirements for this GIBE flow down from a generic Free Electron Laser (FEL) resonator. The nature of the FEL gain volume (a thin, pencil-like, on-axis region) dictates that the output beam be very small. Such a thin beam with the high power levels characteristic of FELs would have to travel perhaps hundreds of meters or more before expanding enough to allow reflection from cooled mirrors. A GIBE, on the other hand, would allow placing these optics closer to the gain region and thus reduces the cavity lengths substantially. Results are presented relating to optical and mechanical design, alignment sensitivity analysis, radius of curvature analysis, laser cavity stability analysis of a linear stable concentric laser cavity with a GIBE. Fabrication details of the GIBE are also given.

  13. Hybrid Intrusion Forecasting Framework for Early Warning System (United States)

    Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo

    Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.

  14. Armenian earthquake WWER-440 NNPs and Turkish early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bektur, Y.


    On December 7, 1988 a severe earthquake occurred at Spitak, approximately 90-100 km far from the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant in Yerivan. Another one named Vrancea earthquake which occurred on 4 March, 1977. During this earthquake, the Kozloduj NPP (Bulgaria) was strongly damaged. Until this event, seismic loadings had received scant attention in the siting of WWER's. However after the Kozlodui damage Soviet designers changed their opinion. In this study, the seismicity of the Black Sea region and eastern Europe, seismic requirements for WWER's and the changes in plants for which to resistant against to the earthquake are given. During the earthquake radiation levels obtained by Turkish early warning system is also given

  15. Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response (United States)


    A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

  16. Rapid earthquake magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru


    Due to the huge amount of recorded data, an automatic procedure was developed and used to test different methods to rapidly evaluate earthquake magnitude from the first seconds of the P wave. In order to test all the algorithms involved in detection and rapid earthquake magnitude estimation, several tests were performed, in order to avoid false alarms. A special detection algorithm was developed, that is based on the classical STA/LTA algorithm and tuned for early warning purpose. A method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4 seconds from detection of P wave in the epicenter is proposed. The method was tested on al recorded data, and the magnitude error determination is acceptable taking into account that it is computed from only 3 stations in a very short time interval. (author)

  17. Screening compounds for early warnings about environmental pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalf, R.L.


    A laboratory model ecosystem with a terrestrial-aquatic interface has been used to evaluate the potential environmental effects of nearly 100 micropollutants including insecticides, fungicides, plasticizers, heat transfer agents, flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals and heavy metals. These have been evaluated largely by radiotracer techniques but atomic absorption spectrometry has also been used. Emphasis has been placed upon degradation pathways in a variety of organisms and upon quantitative data on biodegradation and bioaccumulation. The laboratory model ecosystem has substantial value as an environmental early warning element in evaluating the pollutant potential of various chemicals which may enter into the environment in trace amounts either purposely in various use patterns or accidentally from effluents of manufacture or waste products. (U.S.)

  18. Graphic tobacco warning labels – an improper solution?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvi JD


    Full Text Available Joshua D SalviWeill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USAIn June 2009, President Barack Obama signed into law the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (HR 1256. This legislation required that all tobacco products and advertising must have a graphic warning covering 50 percent of the front and back of the package. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA has proposed a number of graphic designs, and the final designs were submitted in June, 2011. The proposed designs include grotesque imagery in an attempt to dissuade smoking in the USA. However, these graphic labels were invalidated in court due to violation of freedom-of-speech rights. Independent from that point, these labels, if appealed, would do more harm than good from a public health perspective. 

  19. Do warning signs on electronic gaming machines influence irrational cognitions? (United States)

    Monaghan, Sally; Blaszczynski, Alex; Nower, Lia


    Electronic gaming machines are popular among problem gamblers; in response, governments have introduced "responsible gaming" legislation incorporating the mandatory display of warning signs on or near electronic gaming machines. These signs are designed to correct irrational and erroneous beliefs through the provision of accurate information on probabilities of winning and the concept of randomness. There is minimal empirical data evaluating the effectiveness of such signs. In this study, 93 undergraduate students were randomly allocated to standard and informative messages displayed on an electronic gaming machine during play in a laboratory setting. Results revealed that a majority of participants incorrectly estimated gambling odds and reported irrational gambling-related cognitions prior to play. In addition, there were no significant between-group differences, and few participants recalled the content of messages or modified their gambling-related cognitions. Signs placed on electronic gaming machines may not modify irrational beliefs or alter gambling behaviour.

  20. Geological hazards: from early warning systems to public health toolkits. (United States)

    Samarasundera, Edgar; Hansell, Anna; Leibovici, Didier; Horwell, Claire J; Anand, Suchith; Oppenheimer, Clive


    Extreme geological events, such as earthquakes, are a significant global concern and sometimes their consequences can be devastating. Geographic information plays a critical role in health protection regarding hazards, and there are a range of initiatives using geographic information to communicate risk as well as to support early warning systems operated by geologists. Nevertheless we consider there to remain shortfalls in translating information on extreme geological events into health protection tools, and suggest that social scientists have an important role to play in aiding the development of a new generation of toolkits aimed at public health practitioners. This viewpoint piece reviews the state of the art in this domain and proposes potential contributions different stakeholder groups, including social scientists, could bring to the development of new toolkits. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol


    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  2. A Real-Time Advisory System For Airborne Early Warning (United States)

    Kirk, D. B.; Cromwell, M. E.; Donnell, M. L.; Barrett, C. L.


    Decision speed and quality can be greatly enhanced by the use of decision augmentation software to assist operators in information analysis and tactical problem solving, dynamic resource allocation, and in determining strategies which optimize overall system performance. One example of such software is the real-time advisory system (RTAS) being constructed to assist in tactical decision-making for airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, particularly the carrier-based Navy E-2C. Using a vector logic approach, the current AEW RTAS is a real-time backward chaining expert system which provides advice for both threat interception and refueling in the complex Outer Air Battle Scenario. This paper describes the current system, discusses a number of design issues for such a system, and describes ongoing modifications to the current AEW RTAS using SAIC's frame-based knowledge repre-sentation language (KRL).

  3. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems (United States)

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd


    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  4. Rainfall thresholds and flood warning: an operative case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio


    Full Text Available An operative methodology for rainfall thresholds definition is illustrated, in order to provide at critical river section optimal flood warnings. Threshold overcoming could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk and trigger the prevention and emergency system alert. The procedure for the definition of critical rainfall threshold values is based both on the quantitative precipitation observed and the hydrological response of the basin. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section and are estimated by hydrological modelling for several scenarios (e.g.: modifying the soil moisture conditions. Some preliminary results, in terms of reliability analysis (presence of false alarms and missed alarms, evaluated using indicators like hit rate and false alarm rate for the case study of Mignone River are presented.

  5. Rapid estimate of earthquake source duration: application to tsunami warning. (United States)

    Reymond, Dominique; Jamelot, Anthony; Hyvernaud, Olivier


    We present a method for estimating the source duration of the fault rupture, based on the high-frequency envelop of teleseismic P-Waves, inspired from the original work of (Ni et al., 2005). The main interest of the knowledge of this seismic parameter is to detect abnormal low velocity ruptures that are the characteristic of the so called 'tsunami-earthquake' (Kanamori, 1972). The validation of the results of source duration estimated by this method are compared with two other independent methods : the estimated duration obtained by the Wphase inversion (Kanamori and Rivera, 2008, Duputel et al., 2012) and the duration calculated by the SCARDEC process that determines the source time function (M. Vallée et al., 2011). The estimated source duration is also confronted to the slowness discriminant defined by Newman and Okal, 1998), that is calculated routinely for all earthquakes detected by our tsunami warning process (named PDFM2, Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism, (Clément and Reymond, 2014)). Concerning the point of view of operational tsunami warning, the numerical simulations of tsunami are deeply dependent on the source estimation: better is the source estimation, better will be the tsunami forecast. The source duration is not directly injected in the numerical simulations of tsunami, because the cinematic of the source is presently totally ignored (Jamelot and Reymond, 2015). But in the case of a tsunami-earthquake that occurs in the shallower part of the subduction zone, we have to consider a source in a medium of low rigidity modulus; consequently, for a given seismic moment, the source dimensions will be decreased while the slip distribution increased, like a 'compact' source (Okal, Hébert, 2007). Inversely, a rapid 'snappy' earthquake that has a poor tsunami excitation power, will be characterized by higher rigidity modulus, and will produce weaker displacement and lesser source dimensions than 'normal' earthquake. References: CLément, J

  6. Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built (United States)

    Lucarelli, A.


    Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be

  7. Impact of the New Malaysian Cigarette Pack Warnings on Smokers? Awareness of Health Risks and Interest in Quitting Smoking


    Fathelrahman, Ahmed I.; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Cummings, K. Michael; Borland, Ron; Samin, Ahmad Shalihin Bin Mohd


    The objective of this research was to compare the response of adult smokers in Malaysia to newly proposed pictorial cigarette warnings against the current text-only warnings. The study population included 140 adult male smokers who were enrolled in a randomized trial to view either the new pictorial warnings (intervention) or the old text-only warnings (control). Participants completed pre-exposure and post-exposure questionnaires that assessed their awareness of the health risks of smoking, ...

  8. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caprio, M.


    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  9. Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System (United States)

    Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.


    Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

  10. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.


    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  11. Differential detectability of polymorphic warning signals under varying light environments. (United States)

    Rojas, Bibiana; Rautiala, Petri; Mappes, Johanna


    The striking colour-pattern variation of some aposematic species is paradoxical because selection by predators is expected to favour signal uniformity. Although the mechanisms allowing for the maintenance of such variation are not well understood, possible explanations include both non-adaptive processes like drift and gene flow; and adaptive processes, such as an interaction between natural and sexual selection, spatial and temporal variation in selection, a link between behaviour or other fitness-related traits and phenotype, and predators' ability to generalise among different signals. Here we test whether warning-signal polymorphisms, such as that of dyeing poison frogs (Dendrobates tinctorius), could be maintained by differences in detectability among morphs. We did experiments in the wild using wax models with different aposematic colour patterns vs. cryptic ones, and examined the attack rates by wild predators over time. We also tested the detectability of different aposematic morphs by 'human predators' under different light environments. We found that cryptic frog models were attacked more than aposematic models, but there were no differences in bird attack rates towards the different aposematic morphs. However, we found that detectability of different morphs depends both on predator experience and light environment. We suggest that the interaction between differential detectability and signal efficiency among morphs in different light conditions could be a mechanism aiding to the maintenance of warning-signal polymorphisms. Our results highlight the importance of considering the light environment at which predators have their first encounters with aposematic prey for future studies on predation in the wild. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Graphic warning labels and the demand for cigarettes. (United States)

    Starr, Martha A; Drake, Keith


    In 2010, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed requiring tobacco companies to add graphic warning labels (GWLs) to cigarette packs. GWLs are large prominently placed warnings that use both text and photographic images to depict health risks of smoking. The companies challenged FDA's authority on First Amendment grounds; the courts accepted that FDA could compel companies to add GWLs, but argued that FDA had not established that GWLs would significantly reduce smoking. This paper adds new evidence on the question of whether GWLs would have reduced cigarette demand, by examining whether tobacco companies' share prices fell unusually after news indicating a higher likelihood of having GWLs, and rose on the opposite news. Such findings would be expected if investors viewed GWLs as likely to reduce cigarette demand. An event-study approach is used to determine whether the stock prices of US tobacco companies rose or fell unusually after news events in the period when GWLs were proposed, finalised, challenged and withdrawn. Tobacco companies' stock prices indeed realised significant abnormal returns after GWL news, consistent with expected negative effects on cigarette demand. Our estimates suggest investors expected GWLs to reduce the number of smokers by an extra 2.4-6.9 million in the 10 years after the rule took effect. These findings support the view that the GWLs proposed by FDA would have curbed cigarette consumption in the USA in an appreciable way. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  13. Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security (United States)

    Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.


    Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.

  14. Airborne platform effects on lasers and warning sensors (United States)

    Henriksson, Markus; Eisele, Christian; Seiffer, Dirk; Sjöqvist, Lars; Togna, Fabio; Velluet, Marie-Thérèse


    Airborne platform effects on lasers and warning sensors (ALWS) has been a European collaborative research project to investigate the effects of platform-related turbulence on optical countermeasure systems, especially missile approach warning systems (MAWS) and directed infrared countermeasures (DIRCM). Field trials have been carried out to study the turbulence effects around a hovering helicopter and behind a turboprop aircraft with engines running on the ground. In addition different methods for modelling the effects have been investigated. In the helicopter trials significant beam wander, scintillations and beam broadening were experienced by narrow divergence laser beams when passing through the down-wash of the hot engine exhaust gases. The measured effects considerably exceed the effects of atmospheric turbulence. Extraction of turbulence parameters for modelling of DIRCM-relevant scenarios show that in most cases the reduction of jamming power and distortion of jamming waveform can be expected to be small. The reduction of effects of turbulence is mainly related to the larger beam divergence and shorter Rayleigh length of DIRCM lasers compared to the experimental probe beams. Measurements using the turboprop platform confirm that tolerable effects on laser beam properties are found when the laser beam passes through the exhaust 15 m behind the outlet where the exhaust gases are starting to cool down. Modelling efforts have shown that time-resolved computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations can be used to study properties of beam propagation in engine exhaust-related turbulence. Because of computational cost and the problem of validating the CFD results the use for system performance simulations is however difficult. The hot exhaust gases emitted from aircraft engines create extreme optical turbulence in a local region. The effects on countermeasure system performance depend both on the system parameters and on the threat characteristics. With present

  15. Designing the upgrade of the Early Warning System in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cindro, M.; Mitic, D.; Stritar, A.


    When designing an upgrade of early warning network for radiological emergencies one has to consider physical criteria as well as technical and financial possibilities, making the system the best possible compromise between the above mentioned aspects. In the case of the Slovenian Early Warning System (EWS) upgrade, the design was even harder because of the need to implement the existing measuring sites into the new scheme. We plan to add 35 new locations with external radiation and meteorology measurements to the 42 already existing sites. In the article we will describe the selection criteria for measuring sites and the requirements for the measuring equipment as well as a discussion of the physical quantities that need to be measured. In addition to gamma dose rate measurements, which are essential for radiological emergencies, meteorological measurements also provide vital information for the assessment of the situation. Especially we describe an additional necessary meteorological equipment which has to be installed. Today's communication technologies offer many possibilities for data transfer from the measuring site to the central data gathering unit and one has to choose the most appropriate one, primarily considering reliability but also cost effectiveness. For that reason new measuring sites will be at the locations already used for meteorological measurements by the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia. The Central Unit (CU) of such a network is the core of the system were all data have to be controlled, analysed and presented to the operator providing him with as much data as possible in a simple and clear fashion. (author)

  16. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods (United States)

    Bednarczyk, Zbigniew


    This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

  17. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bednarczyk Zbigniew


    Full Text Available This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which

  18. Application of the Haines Index in the fire warning system (United States)

    Kalin, Lovro; Marija, Mokoric; Tomislav, Kozaric


    Croatia, as all Mediterranean countries, is strongly affected by large wildfires, particularly in the coastal region. In the last two decades the number and intensity of fires has been significantly increased, which is unanimously associated with climate change, e.g. global warming. More extreme fires are observed, and the fire-fighting season has been expanded to June and September. The meteorological support for fire protection and planning is therefore even more important. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia a comprehensive monitoring and warning system has been established. It includes standard components, such as short term forecast of Fire Weather Index (FWI), but long range forecast as well. However, due to more frequent hot and dry seasons, FWI index often does not provide additional information of extremely high fire danger, since it regularly takes the highest values for long periods. Therefore the additional tools have been investigated. One of widely used meteorological products is the Haines index (HI). It provides information of potential fire growth, taking into account only the vertical instability of the atmosphere, and not the state of the fuel. Several analyses and studies carried out at the Service confirmed the correlation of high HI values with large and extreme fires. The Haines index forecast has been used at the Service for several years, employing European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global prediction model, as well as the limited-area Aladin model. The verification results show that these forecast are reliable, when compared to radiosonde measurements. All these results provided the introduction of the additional fire warnings, that are issued by the Service's Forecast Department.

  19. An Alternative for In-Depth Monitoring of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (United States)

    Lindner, L.; Gensch, S.; Henneberger, R.; Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.


    This article presents a concept for in-depth monitoring of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) developed in the projects German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) , Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Traditionally such systems are monitored using existing standard software solutions such as Nagios with different levels of customization. This talk discusses the operational shortcomings of monitoring larger heterogeneous, loosely coupled infrastructures that are not integrated within a service oriented architecture (SOA) framework providing sufficient monitoring utilities. Such a service-level framework could provide the proper means to monitor service interactions. Without such a framework e.g. in case of a loosely coupled component architecture, the means for a proper component-level supervision do not exist. This manifest in creating Nagios-based "service" checks for such an architecture. Service monitoring using Nagios employs active and passive service checks mostly via ICMP, SSH. The control flow is pulling status from the supervised hosts. When monitoring components, interacting via interfaces not necessarily exposed to a service-level monitoring, pulling the component status becomes inefficient. Nagios administrators bypass this by implementing host-local inspection checks that simulate testable service endpoints to Nagios. We believe that such checks fundamentally fail the service concept of Nagios. The main problems with this approach are (1) duplicating component code by implementation white box tests based on the internal component control flow or/and data structure and (2) an inevitable divergence of component behaviour and check assumptions over the component development life-cycle. This amounts to a continuously needed administrative action to update the service checks and to inspect whether recent errors reported by the monitoring are real errors or

  20. Proliferation in cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piao Yunsong [College of Physical Sciences, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)], E-mail:


    In the contracting phase with w{approx_equal}0, the scale invariant spectrum of curvature perturbation is given by the increasing mode of metric perturbation. In this Letter, it is found that if the contracting phase with w{approx_equal}0 is included in each cycle of a cycle universe, since the metric perturbation is amplified on super horizon scale cycle by cycle, after each cycle the universe will be inevitably separated into many parts independent of one another, each of which corresponds to a new universe and evolves up to next cycle, and then is separated again. In this sense, a cyclic multiverse scenario is actually presented, in which the universe proliferates cycle by cycle. We estimate the number of new universes proliferated in each cycle, and discuss the implications of this result.